WorldWideScience

Sample records for political risk ratings

  1. Political Risk and Foreign Exchange Rates: an Efficient-Market Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Jean-Claude Cosset; Bruno Doutriaux de la Rianderie

    1985-01-01

    This paper examines the reaction of the foreign exchange market to the announcement of changes in the business environment of a country. Our results suggest that sampled political risk news conveys important information about a country's investment climate and causes its currency's exchange rate to vary. It appears, however, that the reaction of the foreign exchange market is more dramatic for unfavorable events than for favorable events. The evidence presented is also consisted with the hypo...

  2. Capital flight and political risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lensink, R; Hermes, N; Murinde, [No Value

    This paper provides the first serious attempt to examine the relationship between political risk and capital flight for a large set of developing countries. The outcomes of the analysis show that in most cases political risk variables do have a statistically robust relationship to capital flight

  3. The place of Political Risk Insurance in the political risk management strategy of multinational corporations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Violeta Iftinchi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Confronted with a variety of political risks that affect their international activities, multinational corporations (MNCs can use Political Risk Insurance (PRI as a method to mitigate some of those risks. The aim of this article is to present the main characteristics of the PRI policies and participants, to highlight its benefits and to put forward three limitations that prevent MNCs in using PRI in their political risk management strategy (fluctuating capacity on the market, high premium rates and small compensation value. The recent trend in incorporating corporate social responsibility requirements as a pre-condition for providing PRI can contribute to lowering PRI premium rates.

  4. Risk, responsibility and political action

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halskov Jensen, Elisabeth

    2004-01-01

    action was transformed into a moral respon-sibility on the part of the national and European politicians, constrained by economic and technical-scientific reality and represented as taking place only in the public sphere. KEY WORDS: CDA, World Risk Society, argumentation, media discourse, argumentation......ABSTRACT. This paper presents an argumentative case study of the discursive representation of risk, responsibility and political action in the Spanish media. The study uses a critical discourse analytical approach combined with theories on risk, agency and political communication in the media....... It is argued that an application of the Toulmin model is useful for eliciting systematic overall repre-sentations of responsibility and agency in environmental crises such as the mad cow crisis as well as for revealing relationships between social domains such as moral, politics, economics and science...

  5. The Political Economy of Intergenerational Risk Sharing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hollanders, D.A.

    2010-01-01

    This paper analyses the political constraints of intergenerational risk sharing. The rst result is that the political process generally does not lead to ex ante optimal insurance. The second result is that in a second best political setting PAYG still contributes to intergenerational risk sharing.

  6. Privatization, political risk and stock market development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.C.; van Oijen, P.H.

    1999-01-01

    This paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test which gradually resolves uncertainty

  7. The Political Economy of Regulatory Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Strausz, Roland

    2009-01-01

    I investigate the argument that, in a two–party system with different regulatory objectives, political uncertainty generates regulatory risk. I show that this risk has a fluctuation effect that hurts both parties and an output–expansion effect that benefits one party. Consequently, at least one party dislikes regulatory risk. Moreover, both political parties gain from eliminating regulatory risk when political divergence is small or the winning probability of the regulatory–risk–averse party ...

  8. Political uncertainty and firm risk in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danglun Luo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The political uncertainty surrounded by the turnover of government officials has a major impact on local economies and local firms. This paper investigates the relationship between the turnover of prefecture-city officials and the inherent risk faced by local firms in China. Using data from 1999 to 2012, we find that prefecture-city official turnovers significantly increased firm risk. Our results show that the political risk was mitigated when new prefecture-city officials were well connected with their provincial leaders. In addition, the impact of political uncertainty was more pronounced for regulated firms and firms residing in provinces with low market openness.

  9. Gender, risk assessment, and political ambition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet-Cushman, Jennie

    2016-01-01

    In the United States, women have long held the right to vote and can participate fully in the political process, and yet they are underrepresented at all levels of elected office. Worldwide, men's dominance in the realm of politics has also been the norm. To date, scholars have focused on supply-side and demand-side explanations of women's underrepresentation but differences in how men and women assess electoral risk (the risk involved in seeking political office) are not fully explained. To fill this gap, I explore how evolutionary theory offers insights into gendered differences in political ambition and the evaluation of electoral risk. Using the framework of life-history theory, I hypothesize that both cognitive and environmental factors in human evolution, particularly as they relate to sexual selection and social roles, have shaped the psychology of ambition in gendered ways affecting contemporary politics. Cognitive risk-assessment mechanisms evolving in the hominid line came to be expressed differently in females and males, in women and men. These gendered expressions plausibly reflect differentiable environmental pressures in the past and may help explain behaviors in and barriers to women's electoral political activity in the present. If so, then the success of efforts to increase such activity - or, regressively, to suppress it - may be better understood.

  10. Political side of risk: a new approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sorenson, J.B.; Trauth, C.A. Jr.

    1980-01-01

    The resolution of many of the Nation's most-serious problems today is hampered by our apparent inability to systematically deal with the socio-political dimensions of the societal acceptance of risks in areas of technical development, decision making, and policy formulation. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the energy field. The nature of public hazards has changed drastically during the past half century or so, driving public considerations of risk into the political realm. This has given many of the socio-political parameters underlying individual, group, and institutional perception and acceptance of risk an importance not typically recognized in technical approaches to risk assessment. As a result, there is now a large gap between technically based views of risk and societal views of risk which, the authors feel, is largely responsible for impeding the resolution of the national problems alluded to above. This paper proposes a general approach toward closing this gap, by using indicators from the political system to measure public perceptions and acceptance of risk, as a continuing function of time, to provide the technical community and policy and decision makers a basis from which to more effectively meet societal environmental, safety, and health goals. 15 references, 6 figures.

  11. Political pressures and exchange rate stability in emerging market economies

    OpenAIRE

    Ester Faia; Massimo Giuliodori; Michele Ruta

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a political economy model of exchange rate policy. The theory is based on a common agency approach with rational expectations. Financial and exporter lobbies exert political pressures to influence the government’s choice of exchange rate policy, before shocks to the economy are realized. The model shows that political pressures affect exchange rate policy and create an over-commitment to exchange rate stability. This helps to rationalize the empirical evidence on fear of l...

  12. The Problems and Prospects of Rating Assessment of Political Stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ирина Анатольевна Белоусова

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the analysis of principles of qualitative and quantitative approaches to measurement of political stability. The author gives a detailed analysis of the problems and prospects of ratings and indices as tools of political analysis and measurement of political stability.

  13. Politically Induced Regulatory Risk and Independent Regulatory Agencies

    OpenAIRE

    Strausz, Roland

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty in election outcomes generates politically induced regulatory risk. Political parties' risk attitudes towards such risk depend on a fluctuation effect that hurts both parties and an output--expansion effect that benefits at least one party. Notwithstanding the parties' risk attitudes, political parties have incentives to negotiate away all regulatory risk by pre-electoral bargaining. Efficient pre-electoral bargaining outcomes fully eliminate politically induced regulatory risk. P...

  14. Socio-political implications of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hipel, K.W.; Fraser, N.W.

    1982-01-01

    A conflict analysis technique is presented which allows risk to be considered when ascertaining the politically and socially feasible solutions to a given large scale engineering project. In particular, the improved metagame analysis algorithm can be employed to model a given conflict or game which may be concerned with risk and to predict the possible compromise solutions. Risk can be entertained in the analysis since it may affect the preference structure of a specific participant for the possible feasible outcomes in the dispute. To demonstrate how the methodology works in practice, it is applied to the Garrison Diversion Unit conflict which is a serious environmental dispute involving American and Canadian interests

  15. The politics of urban climate risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2018-01-01

    makes valuable contributions, this article suggests that all of them remain under-theorized from the point of view of the specific dynamics of local–global interdependencies in urban climate risk politics. In response, the article draws on Beck in outlining the contours of new urban–cosmopolitan risk...... communities. To this effect, empirical studies into large-scale East Asian and European port cities is used to illustrate how a shared transnational risk imaginary (e.g. of future sea-level rises) may help spur collective action and new forms of trans-boundary solidarity. Reflecting on such research practices...

  16. Insure Against Commercial and Political Risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fergusson, Fergus

    2003-01-01

    The oil and gas sector is enormously diverse, ranging from the giant exploration, production and supply companies to the manufacturers, suppliers and service providers that support an industry of crucial importance to the global community. For understandable reasons, risk management in the oil and gas sector has tended to concentrate on health and safety and environmental issues. Consideration must be made for the risks of engaging in domestic and international trade. The concept of risk and the consequential discipline of risk management underpin and support many of the fundamental activities that maintain successful trade flows. Risk management revolves around the organised procedures of mitigating the foreseen and unforeseen consequences of danger, injury and loss that can have adverse and potentially catastrophic effects on the environment, human lives, economies, political stability and business performance

  17. The Determinants of Country Risk Ratings

    OpenAIRE

    Jean-Claude Cosset; Jean Roy

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to replicate Euromoney's and Institutional Investor's country risk ratings on the basis of economic and political variables. The evidence reveals that country risk ratings respond to some of the variables suggested by the theory. In particular, both the level of per capita income and propensity to invest affect positively the rating of a country. In addition, high-ranking countries are less indebted than low-ranking countries. It also appears that the ability of t...

  18. Political risk in fair market value estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gruy, H.J.; Hartsock, J.H.

    1996-01-01

    Political risk arises from unstable governments, commercial establishments and infrastructure as well as labor unrest. All these factors vary from country to country and from time to time. Banks and insurance companies quantify these risks, but they are reluctant to divulge their opinions for fear of alienating possible customers that have been assigned a high risk. An investment in a fixed property such as an oil and gas lease, concession or other mineral interest is subject to political risk. No one will deny that money to be received several years in the future has a greater value today in a country with a stable government, stable tax regime, a sound economy and reliable labor force than in a Third World country where a revolution is brewing. Even in stable countries, the risk of tax law changes, exorbitant environmental production regulations and cleanup costs may vary. How do these factors affect fair market value and how are these calculations made? An important consideration discussed in this paper is the treatment of capital investments

  19. THE FINANCIAL TOOLS FOR COVER POLITICAL RISKS IN PROJECT FINANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Naumenkova

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the risk-mitigation in public-private partnership. Today Ukraine is ranked as "CRT-5 country" and has high levels of economic and political risk. Political risk grows steadily because of financial and political instability in Ukraine. We conclude that investors continue to rank political risk as a key obstacle to long-term investing. The tools for cover many types of political risks such as war, terrorism, civil disturbance, breach of contract, export or operating license cancellation, currency inconvertibility and transfer restriction, change of laws and regulations etc. are described by authors. We focus on the advantages of World Bank Group Guarantee products. The guarantee instruments of the three WBG institutions for cover political risks under different circumstances are the most suitable for public-private partnership in Ukraine. In this article the political risk-mitigation with IBRD Partial Risk Guarantee put forward by authors for PPP projects in Ukraine.

  20. Political Regimes, Political Ideology, and Self-Rated Health in Europe: A Multilevel Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huijts, Tim; Perkins, Jessica M.; Subramanian, S. V.

    2010-01-01

    Background Studies on political ideology and health have found associations between individual ideology and health as well as between ecological measures of political ideology and health. Individual ideology and aggregate measures such as political regimes, however, were never examined simultaneously. Methodology/Principal Findings Using adjusted logistic multilevel models to analyze data on individuals from 29 European countries and Israel, we found that individual ideology and political regime are independently associated with self-rated health. Individuals with rightwing ideologies report better health than leftwing individuals. Respondents from Eastern Europe and former Soviet republics report poorer health than individuals from social democratic, liberal, Christian conservative, and former Mediterranean dictatorship countries. In contrast to individual ideology and political regimes, country level aggregations of individual ideology are not related to reporting poor health. Conclusions/Significance This study shows that although both individual political ideology and contextual political regime are independently associated with individuals' self-rated health, individual political ideology appears to be more strongly associated with self-rated health than political regime. PMID:20661433

  1. Political regimes, political ideology, and self-rated health in Europe: a multilevel analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huijts, Tim; Perkins, Jessica M; Subramanian, S V

    2010-07-22

    Studies on political ideology and health have found associations between individual ideology and health as well as between ecological measures of political ideology and health. Individual ideology and aggregate measures such as political regimes, however, were never examined simultaneously. Using adjusted logistic multilevel models to analyze data on individuals from 29 European countries and Israel, we found that individual ideology and political regime are independently associated with self-rated health. Individuals with rightwing ideologies report better health than leftwing individuals. Respondents from Eastern Europe and former Soviet republics report poorer health than individuals from social democratic, liberal, Christian conservative, and former Mediterranean dictatorship countries. In contrast to individual ideology and political regimes, country level aggregations of individual ideology are not related to reporting poor health. This study shows that although both individual political ideology and contextual political regime are independently associated with individuals' self-rated health, individual political ideology appears to be more strongly associated with self-rated health than political regime.

  2. Food, Risk and Politics: Scare, scandal and crisis - insights into the risk politics of food safety

    OpenAIRE

    Randall, Ed J.

    2009-01-01

    This book is about the risk politics of food safety. Food-related risks regularly grab the headlines in ways that threaten reasoned debate and obstruct sensible policy making. The author explains why this is the case. He goes on to make the case for a properly informed and fully open public debate about food safety issues. He argues that this is the true antidote to the politics of scare, scandal and crisis.\\ud \\ud The book skilfully weaves together the many different threads of food safety a...

  3. Countering Political Risk in Colonial India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lubinski, Christina; Giacomin, Valeria; Schnitzer, Klara

    challenges, impacted the perception of racial lines of distinctions and re-casted the category “European business.” While internment was perceived and managed as a political risk, the case also shows that it created unexpected networking opportunities, generating a tight community of German businesspeople......Internment in so-called “enemy countries” was a frequent occurrence in the twentieth century and created significant obstacles for multinational enterprises (MNEs). This article focuses on German MNEs in India and shows how they addressed the formidable challenge of the internment...

  4. Privatization, political risk and stock market development in emerging economies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.C.; van Oijen, P.H.

    1999-01-01

    This paper investigates whether privatisation in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatisation programme represents a major political test which gradually resolves uncertainty

  5. Element of risk: The politics of radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cole, L.A.

    1994-01-01

    The recent history of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) approach to managing the risk of indoor radon offers a rich base from which to consider US practice in risk assessment, management, and communication. The biological evidence of risks from high-level exposure to radon is in many ways stronger--and the gap to be spanned by extrapolation from laboratory animal studies to ambient exposures narrower--than for many of the toxic and hazardous air pollutants that have been the focus of EPA regulatory attention. The epidemiological evidence about radon is complicated by a number of confounding variables, but this is often the state of epidemiological evidence. Radon has also been the focus of a considerable amount of research on risk communication. To complete the promising ingredients, disagreements between federal regulators at EPA and managers of federal nuclear programs run by the Department of Energy (DOE) concerning radon from uranium mill tailings, for example, and other issues in radiation health physics offer a rich array of opportunities to explore issues in federal bureaucratic politics. This book provides a straightforward report of much of the development of US policy on indoor radon over the past decade. As such, it gives readers unfamiliar with the evolution of radon regulation an opportunity to come quickly up to speed on many historical details

  6. Political Risk and Foreign Direct Investments in Kosovo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MSc. Neshat Podvorica

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to present the importance of political risk and its impact on attracting investments, also to analyse policies made by the Kosovo institutions to reduce political risk and increase the FDIs. Attracting of the FDIs is complex because they depend on many factors, and one of the methods that measure political risk is the model used by the PRS Group that includes the flow of the economy through 12 components. Measuring political risk plays an important role in transitional countries, because these are countries that have problems in various fields and also the trust on by the investors is low. As a finding of this study is that Kosovo is estimated to have moderate political risk, and is close to joining the group of countries with low political risk. Challenges faced by Kosovo in reducing political risk are concentrated in several components, which are: socioeconomic, corruption and rule of law components. Kosovo has taken significant steps in improving the conditions for investment, government stability and positioning of the country facing internal and external conflicts.

  7. Privatization, political risk and stock market development in emerging economies

    OpenAIRE

    Perotti, E.C.; van Oijen, P.H.

    1999-01-01

    This paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test that gradually resolves uncertainty over political commitment to a market-oriented policy as well as to regulatory and private property rights. We present evidence suggesting that progress in privatization is indeed correlated with impro...

  8. Privatization, political risk and stock market development in emerging economies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.C.; van Oijen, P. H.

    2001-01-01

    This paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test that gradually resolves uncertainty over

  9. Privatization, political risk and stock market development in emerging economies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.C.; van Oijen, P.H.

    1999-01-01

    This paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test that gradually resolves uncertainty over

  10. Political risk and export promotion: evidence from Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Moser, Christoph; Nestmann, Thorsten; Wedow, Michael

    2006-01-01

    Political risk represents an important hidden transaction cost that reduces international trade. This paper investigates the claim that German public export credit guarantees (Hermes guarantees) mitigate this friction to trade flows and hence promote exports. We employ an empirical trade gravity model, where we explicitly control for political risk in the importing country in order to evaluate the effect of export guarantees. The idea behind export promotion through public export credit agenc...

  11. How politicians make decisions under risk: a political choice experiment

    OpenAIRE

    Enrique Fatás; Tibor Neugebauer; Pilar Tamborero

    2004-01-01

    We report on an experimental study with real-world politicians. These political experts face political choice problems under risk and probability. Thus, we test the frequently observed violations of rational choice theory -the reference point effect, loss aversion, framing effects, and the common ratio effect- with experts from the field. Their choices violate expected utility theory. Nevertheless, they appear to be more rational and less risk averse (loving) in the domain of gains (losses) t...

  12. Political instability and country risk : new evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    DeHaan, J; Siermann, CLJ; VanLubek, E

    1997-01-01

    This note presents new estimates of a probit model for the debt rescheduling, using a sample of 65 countries over the period 1984-93. Apart from economic variables, a whole range of indicators for political instability are included in the model as explanatory variables. It turns out, that none is

  13. Political regimes, political ideology, and self-rated health in Europe: A multilevel analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijts, T.H.M.; Perkins, J.M.; Subramanian, S.V.

    2010-01-01

    Background Studies on political ideology and health have found associations between individual ideology and health as well as between ecological measures of political ideology and health. Individual ideology and aggregate measures such as political regimes, however, were never examined

  14. Political regimes, political ideology, and self-rated health in Europe : a multilevel analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijts, T.; Perkins, J.M; Subramanian, S.V.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Studies on political ideology and health have found associations between individual ideology and health as well as between ecological measures of political ideology and health. Individual ideology and aggregate measures such as political regimes, however, were never examined

  15. Is political risk still an issue for Turkish stock market?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samet Günay

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we analyze the effects of internal political risk on the Turkish stock market in the period of 2001–2014. Empirical analyses are conducted through various methods to obtain breaks and regimes in the return volatilities of the BIST100 index. According to the results, while the number of breaks has increased in recent years, the risk level of recent periods is significantly lower than the early regimes, and the risk level trend for all regimes show a negative slope. In conclusion, the Turkish stock market responds to political events, but according to our results, not as significantly as in the past.

  16. Management of interest rate risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šabović Šerif

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Interest rate risk is one of the biggest and most dangerous risks that a bank is exposed to. When a change of interest rates occurs, the incomes of a bank based on credits and securities endure significant changes. Banks resources also endure some changes. The change of interest rates changes the value of the assets and liabilities of the bank and it's net and investment worth . The change of interest rates also affects bank's balance sheet, income sheet statement and bank's share capital.

  17. Political regimes, political ideology, and self-rated health in Europe: a multilevel analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Huijts, T.; Perkins, J.M; Subramanian, S.V.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Studies on political ideology and health have found associations between individual ideology and health as well as between ecological measures of political ideology and health. Individual ideology and aggregate measures such as political regimes, however, were never examined simultaneously. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using adjusted logistic multilevel models to analyze data on individuals from 29 European countries and Israel, we found that individual ideology and political r...

  18. Radiation risks and benefits: politics and morality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maxey, M.N.

    1983-01-01

    The bioethical framework from which moral reasoning concerning nuclear technology has been derived is both seriously flawed and conceptually inadequate. The reasons are examined and are arranged in response to three questions. First, what is the status of alleged scientific evidence from which moral conclusions about the unacceptability of man-made radiation exposures are derived. Secondly, what criticisms of risk assessment reasoning are pertinent to ethical reflection. Finally, what revisions in an ethical framework are necessary if risk estimates of low-dose radiation exposure are to be conducted properly

  19. Dutch Courage : The Politics of Acceptable Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jan van der Meulen; prof. dr. J.M.L.M. Soeters

    2005-01-01

    In this article we analyze the ways in which the risks of military missions and the prospects for casualties have made an impact on the deployment of soldiers by the Netherlands. The question is whether the self-image of being a military nation acts as a hindrance to participation when the going

  20. Becoming Criminal: The Cultural Politics of Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Derrick

    2006-01-01

    At the same time as youth crime in the UK is falling, there has been an increase in the numbers of young people in custody together with an explosion of social policy initiatives aimed at young people deemed to be "at risk" of becoming criminal and focused upon the prevention of future offending and inclusion in mainstream society. This…

  1. Risk Factors as the Reasons of Political Instability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Георгий Ильич Марушко

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available This article refers to the analysis of political instability and instability risk factors, and the mechanism of direct circuits and feedback between them. The best understanding of each of these factors conducts to comprehension of dynamics of change of stability of the state to external and internal sources of stabilization and destabilization.

  2. Consensus and conflict resolution: The politics of assessing risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelkin, D.; Pollak, M.

    1980-01-01

    Not the structure of experiments can be generalized but the conditions that will allow dissenting groups to communicate effectively with administrative agencies. This includes a careful definition of the problem that gives due weight to political concerns, the appropriate involvement of affected interests, an unbiased management of the procedures, a fair distribution of expertise, and a real margin of choice. One of the more important outcomes of recent disputes is an awareness that technologies embody not only risks but also controversial political and social choices. (DG)

  3. Risk, ambiguity and sovereign rating

    OpenAIRE

    Di Caro, Paolo

    2014-01-01

    Decisions of investing in sovereign assets involve both risk and ambiguity. Ambiguity arises from unknown elements characterizing the value of a generic sovereign. In presence of ambiguity, ambiguity-averse investors are prone to pay for obtaining summary information such as ratings which reduces ambiguity. Ambiguity-neutral and ambiguity-averse investors, then, make decisions on the basis of different informative sources. By presenting a simple model of sovereign rating under ambiguity, thre...

  4. INTEGRATED APPROACHES TO GEOPOLITICS AND RISKS IN INTERNATIONAL POLITICS

    OpenAIRE

    Dr. Sheriff Ghali Ibrahim; Dr. Iro Uke

    2016-01-01

    The paper examines the nature and impact of geopolitics on the global oil and gas business. It shows the relationship between politics and what nature provides such as oil and gas and the interplay between and among nations, people and institutions within the framework of geopolitics. The paper adopts the secondary methodology in order to investigate the risks (impact) attached to geopolitics. Findings show that, the concept of geopolitics is so versatile and multidimensional, enveloped by a ...

  5. The Role of the Expert’s Ratings in Political Activity in Modern Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Марина Васильевна Носкова

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is the short review of the ratings, which are carried out by expert structures and their influence both on image of the countries, and on image of political leaders (leaders of political parties and heads of regions of the Russian Federation. The attention is paid to influence from any expert consultants regarding preparation and maintenance of election campaigns, connection of expert ratings with adoption of political decisions by public authorities is shown.

  6. Political Culture and Risk Analysis: An Outline of Somalia, Tunisia, and Libya

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-21

    unrest, outside stakeholders will always have concerns regarding any signs of institu- tional, economic, political , and social instability . From...predictability, stability , continuity, and security, 40 Political Culture and Risk Analysis MCU Journal serving as a filter for all subsequent (collective...armed conflict and its accompanying instability has remained. 46 Political Culture and Risk Analysis MCU Journal The 30 years preceding 1991 was

  7. European market integration for gas? Volume flexibility and political risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asche, Frank; Tveteras, Ragnar; Osmundsen, Petter

    2002-01-01

    Long-term take-or-pay contracts regulating gas exports to the Continent are described and analyzed. We thereafter examine whether the German gas market is integrated. Time series of Norwegian, Dutch and Russian gas export prices to Germany in 1990-1998 are examined. Cointegration tests show that that the different border prices for gas to Germany move proportionally over time, indicating an integrated gas market. We find differences in mean prices, with Russian gas being sold at prices systematically lower than Dutch and Norwegian gas. Among the explanatory factors for price discrepancies are differences in volume flexibility (swing) and perceived political risk

  8. Refuse and the 'Risk Society': The Political Ecology of Risk in Inter-war Britain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Timothy; Bulmer, Sarah

    2013-05-01

    This article responds to current critiques of Ulrich Beck's 'risk society' thesis by historians of science and medicine. Those who have engaged with the concept of risk society have been content to accept the fundamental categories of Beck's analysis. In contrast, we argue that Beck's risk society thesis underplays two key themes. First, the role of capitalist social relations as the driver of technological change and the transformation of everyday life; and second, the ways in which hegemonic discourses of risk can be appropriated and transformed by counter-hegemonic forces. In place of 'risk society', we propose an approach based upon a 'political ecology of risk', which emphasises the social relations that are fundamental to the everyday politics of environmental health.

  9. 76 FR 16570 - Interest Rate Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-24

    ... NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 741 RIN 3133-AD66 Interest Rate Risk AGENCY... regulations to require Federally insured credit unions to have a written policy addressing interest rate risk... Risk Management for Credit Unions with Large Positions in Fixed Rate Mortgages; 06-CU-16 Inter-Agency...

  10. The Effect of Political and Economic Factors on Corporate Tax Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Hansson, Åsa; Porter, Susan; Perry Williams, Susan

    2012-01-01

    Economists and political scientists have long been interested in factors that affect the statutory tax rate on businesses set by federal governments. In this study, we examine the impact of political and economic factors on several measures of tax rates and tax incentives offered across 19 developed countries for the years 1979 through 2005. Our results indicate that while economic conditions such as openness, strategic interaction, budget constraints, economic downturns and an aging populati...

  11. Variance risk premia in CO_2 markets: A political perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reckling, Dennis

    2016-01-01

    The European Commission discusses the change of free allocation plans to guarantee a stable market equilibrium. Selling over-allocated contracts effectively depreciates prices and negates the effect intended by the regulator to establish a stable price mechanism for CO_2 assets. Our paper investigates mispricing and allocation issues by quantitatively analyzing variance risk premia of CO_2 markets over the course of changing regimes (Phase I-III) for three different assets (European Union Allowances, Certified Emissions Reductions and European Reduction Units). The research paper gives recommendations to regulatory bodies in order to most effectively cap the overall carbon dioxide emissions. The analysis of an enriched dataset, comprising not only of additional CO_2 assets, but also containing data from the European Energy Exchange, shows that variance risk premia are equal to a sample average of 0.69 for European Union Allowances (EUA), 0.17 for Certified Emissions Reductions (CER) and 0.81 for European Reduction Units (ERU). We identify the existence of a common risk factor across different assets that justifies the presence of risk premia. Various policy implications with regards to gaining investors’ confidence in the market are being reviewed. Consequently, we recommend the implementation of a price collar approach to support stable prices for emission allowances. - Highlights: •Enriched dataset covering all three political phases of the CO_2 markets. •Clear policy implications for regulators to most effectively cap the overall CO_2 emissions pool. •Applying a cross-asset benchmark index for variance beta estimation. •CER contracts have been analyzed with respect to variance risk premia for the first time. •Increased forecasting accuracy for CO_2 asset returns by using variance risk premia.

  12. Safety Politics and Risk Perceptions in Malaysian Industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wangel, Arne

    Abstract The book deals with the analysis of work hazards and safety in industrial enterprises in Peninsular Malaysia, Southeast Asia. It traces the development of this theme of conflict within the context constituted by state, labour market and labour-management relations in Malaysia. The book...... and safety, when compared with the influence of local conditions? What kind of process develops, as local theory about work hazards are formed among workers. And, which are the opportunities for changing working environment institutions in Malaysia? The first part of the book discusses traditions...... by the state from Burawoy, Beronius, and Adesina about production politics and social relations in the labour process provides an integrated perspective on individual risk perceptions, safety practices in enterprises, and government regulation. The empirical data were collected during the period 1989...

  13. The Comparative Ratings and Indices as the Instruments of Measurement of Political Stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Анна Олеговна Ярославцева

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In the given article the main comparative ratings and indices of measurement of political stability in different countries are analyzed. The author proves that despite the broad acknowledgement and heuristic value of these ratings they often lack objectivity when depict situation in Russia.

  14. Women, Demography, and Politics: How Lower Fertility Rates Lead to Democracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Udi

    2018-04-01

    Where connections between demography and politics are examined in the literature, it is largely in the context of the effects of male aspects of demography on phenomena such as political violence. This project aims to place the study of demographic variables' influence on politics, particularly on democracy, squarely within the scope of political and social sciences, and to focus on the effects of woman-related demographics-namely, fertility rate. I test the hypothesis that demographic variables-female-related predictors, in particular-have an independent effect on political structure. Comparing countries over time, this study finds a growth in democracy when fertility rates decline. In the theoretical framework developed, it is family structure as well as the economic and political status of women that account for this change at the macro and micro levels. Findings based on data for more than 140 countries over three decades are robust when controlling not only for alternative effects but also for reverse causality and data limitations.

  15. "Mind the Gap": Researchers Ignore Politics at Their Own Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feder, Judith

    2016-02-01

    No matter how distasteful researchers find policy politics, effective policy requires that they engage. Drawing on her career bridging the research/politics gap in health care policy, the author makes a case for why and how researchers can do just that. Copyright © 2016 by Duke University Press.

  16. The necessity for comparative risk analyses as seen from the political point of view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steger, U.

    1981-01-01

    The author describes the current insufficient utilization of risk analyses in the political decision process and investigates if other technologies encounter the same difficulties of acceptance as in the nuclear energy field. This being likely he is trying to find out which contribution comparative risk analyses could make to the process of democratic will-formation so that new technologies are accepted. Firstly the author establishes theses criticizing the recent scientific efforts made in the field of risk analyses and their usability for the political decision process. He then defines the criteria risk analyses have to meet in order to serve as scientific elements for consultative political discussions. (orig./HP) [de

  17. International financial linkages of Latin American banks: the effects of political risk and deposit dollarisation

    OpenAIRE

    Ramon-Ballester, Francisco; Wezel, Torsten

    2007-01-01

    This paper empirically investigates the extent to which the financial linkages of Latin American banks with the exterior are influenced by political risk and deposit dollarisation. We find that the sum of banks’ foreign assets and liabilities is a function of risk-return considerations and excess domestic credit demand. An increase in political risk is shown to be associated with a build-up of foreign positions by the banking sector, but this adverse effect on the banking system is mitigated ...

  18. POLITICAL RISK ON THE FINANCIAL MARKET The problem of adequate scientific assessment of business operations - the naivety of economists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leszek Dziawgo

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the significant problems of a modern economy and economics is political risk. A destructive influence of politics on the financial market cannot be ignored. It is necessary to indicate some selected specific problems of the financial market connected with politics in the area of: public finance (including EU, monetary policy and capital market. Nowadays, the scale and dynamics of political interference in the economy and finance leads to the problem of rationality in business activities. Moreover, many hidden political factors change the political risk into immeasurable political uncertainty.

  19. Scientific risk communication about controversial issues influences public perceptions of scientists' political orientations and credibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vraga, Emily; Myers, Teresa; Kotcher, John; Beall, Lindsey; Maibach, Ed

    2018-02-01

    Many scientists communicate with the public about risks associated with scientific issues, but such communication may have unintended consequences for how the public views the political orientations and the credibility of the communicating scientist. We explore this possibility using an experiment with a nationally representative sample of Americans in the fall of 2015. We find that risk communication on controversial scientific issues sometimes influences perceptions of the political orientations and credibility of the communicating scientist when the scientist addresses the risks of issues associated with conservative or liberal groups. This relationship is moderated by participant political ideology, with liberals adjusting their perceptions of the scientists' political beliefs more substantially when the scientist addressed the risks of marijuana use when compared with other issues. Conservatives' political perceptions were less impacted by the issue context of the scientific risk communication but indirectly influenced credibility perceptions. Our results support a contextual model of audience interpretation of scientific risk communication. Scientists should be cognizant that audience members may make inferences about the communicating scientist's political orientations and credibility when they engage in risk communication efforts about controversial issues.

  20. Expanding the disaster risk management framework: Measuring the constructed level of national identity as a factor of political risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barend Prinsloo

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Political risk is identified as a dominant risk category of disaster risk management (DRM which could negatively affect the success of those measures implemented to reduce disaster risk. Key to political risk is the construct of national identity which, if poorly constructed, could greatly contribute to political risk. This article proposed a tool to measure the construct of national identity and to provide recommendations to strengthen the construct in order to mitigate the exacerbating influence it may have on political risk and ultimately on DRM. The design of the measurement tool consisted of a mixed methodological approach employing both quantitative and qualitative data. The data collection instruments included a literature review (which is shortly provided in the previous sections and an empirical study that utilised data obtained through structured questionnaires. Although the results of the proposed measuring instrument did not include a representative sample of all the cultures in SouthAfrica, the results alluded to different levels for the construction of national identity among black and white respondents, possibly because of different ideological expectations among these groups. The results of the study should be considered as a validation of the measuring tool and not necessarily of the construct of national identity in South Africa. The measuring tool is thus promising for future studies to reduce political risk and ultimately disaster risk.

  1. The importance of the impact of political risk factors in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudolf Essel

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Political risk factors often impact negatively on the financial results of an enterprise, industry, geographical region or an entire country. In severe cases they may even lead to financial disasters. Previous research (by Essel identified 10 specific political risk factors which are common to emerging market economies. As South Africa is a developing country with an emerging market economy, these 10 political risk factors should also be present in this country. This paper focuses on the importance of the impact of political risk factors on an agent’s total annual claims amount when underwriting political risk insurance in South Africa. The objective of this research paper embodies the improvement of financial decision-making by a particular enterprise, industry, geographical region or country operating in an emerging market economy, pertaining to the importance of the impact of political risk factors. A literature study as well as an empirical survey was done to achieve the study’s objective. The conclusions of this research should also be valuable to other enterprises, industries, geographical regions or countries which operate in an emerging market economy.

  2. Political changes and trends in cardiovascular risk factors in the Czech Republic, 1985-92.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobak, M; Skodova, Z; Pisa, Z; Poledne, R; Marmot, M

    1997-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Mortality from cardiovascular diseases is substantially higher in central and eastern Europe than in the west. After the fall of communism, these countries have undergone radical changes in their political, social, and economic environments but little is known about the impact of these changes on health behaviours or risk factors. Data from the Czech Republic, a country whose mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases are among the highest, were analysed in this report. OBJECTIVES: To examine the trends in cardiovascular risk factors in Czech population over the last decade during which a major and sudden change of the political and social system occurred in 1989, and whether the trends differed in relation to age and educational group. DESIGN AND SETTING: Data from three cross sectional surveys conducted in 1985, 1988, and 1992 as a part of the MONICA project were analysed. The surveys examined random samples of men and women aged 25-64 in six Czech districts and measured the following risk factors: smoking, blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), and total and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol. RESULTS: The numbers of subjects (response rate) examined were 2573 (84%) in 1985, 2769 (87%) in 1988, and 2353 (73%) in 1992. Total cholesterol and body mass index increased between 1985 and 1988 and decreased between 1988 and 1992. The prevalence of smoking was declining slightly in men between 1985 and 1992 but remained stable in women. There were only small changes in blood pressure. The decline in cholesterol and BMI in 1988-92 may be related to changes in foods consumption after the price deregulation in 1991. An improvement in risk profile was more pronounced in younger age groups, and the declines in cholesterol and obesity were substantially larger in men and women with higher education. By contrast, there was an increase in smoking in women educated only to primary level. CONCLUSION: Substantial changes in cholesterol, obesity, and women

  3. Currency Risk Management under Floating Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicu Duret

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available As for the research into this subject, we find, therefore, that one of the most important indicators that quantify the international competitiveness is the exchange rate, together with other fundamental macroeconomic variables such as the size of the potential GDP, the equilibrium real exchange rate, gives a certain insight into the functioning of the fundamental macroeconomic mechanisms and their regulation. Commercial and financial operations imply relationships between partners from different currency countries or areas that involve conversion operations, of replacement of a currency to another. Exchange rate fluctuations of one currency create currency risk, to the extent that it is used to carry out international transactions. These operations are subjected to currency risk as exchange rates change frequently from one period to another and, on the other hand, speculations in the forex market influence the exchange rate by the interventions of those who perform them.

  4. HOW MULTINATIONAL CORPORATIONS USE LOBBYING AND ADVOCACY TO MITIGATE POLITICAL RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Violeta Iftinchi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In their international activities multinational corporations (MNCs face various risks. Political risk is one of them. Expropriations, transfer and convertibility restrictions, breach of contracts, acts of terrorism, domestic political violence or other adverse regulatory changes and/or negative government action represent forms of political risks. Incorporating political risk in their risk management strategies becomes a necessity for MNCs in their search for profits and new markets. This article presents how MNCs use lobbying and advocacy as means to engage with governments and politicians in the country of origin (home country, in the country where a MNC has operations (host country or at international level (by creating ties with international organisations in order to mitigate political risks. The case of Repsol and its investment in Argentina is used to demonstrate the application of such tools. The article presents two limitations that might determine the success or failure of MNCs’ lobbying and advocacy activities: governments' unpredictable views towards MNCs and reputational risks. The article has also identified a main difficulty in identifying and examining MNCs way of using lobbying and advocacy to engage with government officials and politicians. This difficulty comes from the informal character of such contacts which makes lobbying and advocacy almost impossible to identify.

  5. Remarks on Interest Rate Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena-Violeta DRAGOI

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Bank interest and interest rate risk management is a contemporary subject and for socio-economic environment of Romania cause serious consequences in the level of economic development. The purpose of this research is to highlight the main indicator that measures the total cost of a loan, namely the annual percentage rate (APR, because if we refer to an interest rate lower, at first glance that loan seems more advantageous, but at a closer look, taking into account the commissions charged by the bank, we see that the loan is more expensive compared to another, whose interest rate is higher.

  6. Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Panel Data Analysis of Selected European Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet BEŞKAYA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of economic and political factors on the choice of exchange rate regimes. In order to achieve this goal, we apply for Binary Choice Panel Probit Model to examine the relationships between exchange rate regimes and financial depth, real exchange rate, capital inflow and democracy. Our data covers the period of 1980-2013 for the selected EU countries, namely, Austria, Germany, Belgium, France, Denmark, England, Sweden and Italy. Estimation results demonstrates that the choice of fixed exchange rate regime become disadvantageous and flexible exchange rate turn out to be the right choice as financial depth, real exchange rate, capital inflow and democratization increases.

  7. Climate Change, State Stability, and Political Risk in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-30

    www.acq.osd.mil/dsb/reports/ADA552760.pdf. iii P.P. Hearn Jr. et al., “Global GIS Database; Digital Atlas of Africa,” USGS Numbered Series, Data...Series, (2001), http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/ds62B. iv U.S. Geological Survey World Conventional Resources Assessment Team, “USGS Digital ...Retrenchment and the Exercise of Citizenship in Africa,” Comparative Political Studies 44, 9 (2011): 1238-1266; Jennifer N. Brass, “Blurring Boundaries

  8. Political Economy of Infant Mortality Rate: Role of Democracy Versus Good Governance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberg, Dina Y

    2018-01-01

    Despite numerous studies on whether democracy reduces the infant mortality rate (IMR), the empirical results remain mixed at best. In this article, I perform several theoretical and empirical exercises that help explain why and under what conditions we should expect politics to matter most for a decrease in IMR. First, I capitalize on the epidemiological view that IMR - the most commonly used indicator of health in social sciences - is better suited to reflect public health micromanagement than overall social development. Second, I theorize that autocrats have incentives to invest in health up to a certain point, which could lead to a reduction in IMR. Third, I introduce an omitted variable - good governance - that trumps the importance of a political regime for IMR: (1) it directly affects public health micromanagement, and (2) many autocrats made inroads in achieving good governance. Finally, for the first time in such research, I use a disaggregated IMR approach to corroborate my hypotheses.

  9. Strategies and deficits in the political treatment of technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dierkes, M.; Thienen, V. von.

    1982-01-01

    To seek approaches for an explanation of the public debate about certain technological risk sources, the authors present an analytical model of risk management techniques. It permits to describe traditional patterns of risk management which frequently are not based on rational categories and pursue a limited number of aims in strategic steps. It concentrates on single major events (catastrophies) and the mistigation of such damage and points out that some risk management techniques related to the utilization of new technologies, unlike the complex traditional forms of risk management, are increasingly aimed at preventing damage occurring in the first place. The chances for a more systematic and acceptable risk management satisfying the growing demands of developing modern technologies are discussed. (orig./HP) [de

  10. On the spillover of exchange rate risk into default risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Božović Miloš

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reduce the exchange-rate risk, banks in emerging markets are typically denominating their loans in foreign currencies. However, in the event of a substantial depreciation of the local currency, the payment ability of a foreign-currency borrower may be reduced significantly, exposing the lender to additional default risk. This paper analyses how the exchange-rate risk of foreign currency loans spills over into default risk. We show that in an economy where foreign currency loans are a dominant source of financing economic activity, depreciation of the local currency establishes a negative feedback mechanism that leads to higher default probabilities, reduced credit supply, and reduced growth. This finding has some important implications that may be of special interest for regulators and market participants in emerging economies.

  11. [Debating disease: the risk factor concept in political economic and scientific consideration, 1968 to 1986].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madarász, Jeannette

    2009-01-01

    The risk factor concept was developed in American epidemiological studies ongoing since the 1940s researching the causes of chronic cardiovascular diseases. By looking at the depiction of this model in a variety of media in Germany between 1968 and 1986 we can put its close interaction with contemporary socio-political debates under scrutiny. Thereby, a strong connection between the various agents' political and economic interests on the one hand and the incorporation of the risk factor concept into their specific agendas will become apparent. The risk factor concept was not fundamentally changed in the process but it was adapted to contemporary conditions and political constellations. Thereby, so it will be argued, the medical uses of the model, especially regarding the prevention of chronic cardiovascular disease, were forced into the background of public debates.

  12. Political risks of hydrocarbon deposit development in the Arctic seas of the Russian Federation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolsunovskaya, Y A; Boyarko, G Yu; Bolsunovskaya, L M

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays the process of Arctic development has a long-term international cooperation character. Economic and geopolitical interests of both arctic and non-arctic countries meet in the region. Apart from resource development issues, there are problems concerning security, sustainable development and some others issues conditioned by climate and geographical characteristics of the region. Strategic analysis of political risks for the Russian Federation is carried out. The analysis reveals that political risks of hydrocarbon deposits development in the RF arctic seas appear as lack of coordination with arctic countries in solving key regional problems, failure to follow international agreements. Such inconsistency may lead to political risks, which results in strained situation in the region

  13. The Pros and Cons of Using Joint Ventures as a Tool to Mitigate Political Risks in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Violeta Iftinchi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available As part of their political risk management strategy, multinational corporations (MNCs can use joint ventures as a tool to reduce their exposure to political risks in international activities. The aim of this article is to present the main benefits for MNCs in using joint ventures with a local partner to mitigate political risks in developing countries and to put forward three risks that MNCs have to consider when choosing the local partner (the risk of opportunistic expropriation, the risk associated with transferring of intellectual property rights and reputational risk.

  14. 13 CFR 120.1015 - Risk Rating System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk Rating System. 120.1015 Section 120.1015 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1015 Risk Rating System. (a) Risk Rating. SBA may assign a Risk Rating...

  15. VaR: Exchange Rate Risk and Jump Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fen-Ying Chen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Incorporating the Poisson jumps and exchange rate risk, this paper provides an analytical VaR to manage market risk of international portfolios over the subprime mortgage crisis. There are some properties in the model. First, different from past studies in portfolios valued only in one currency, this model considers portfolios not only with jumps but also with exchange rate risk, that is vital for investors in highly integrated global financial markets. Second, in general, the analytical VaR solution is more accurate than historical simulations in terms of backtesting and Christoffersen's independence test (1998 for small portfolios and large portfolios. In other words, the proposed model is reliable not only for a portfolio on specific stocks but also for a large portfolio. Third, the model can be regarded as the extension of that of Kupiec (1999 and Chen and Liao (2009.

  16. The Politics of Co-Production: Risks, Limits and Pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flinders, Matthew; Wood, Matthew; Cunningham, Malaika

    2016-01-01

    Co-production is a risky method of social inquiry. It is time-consuming, ethically complex, emotionally demanding, inherently unstable, vulnerable to external shocks, subject to competing demands and it challenges many disciplinary norms. This is what makes it so fresh and innovative. And yet these research-related risks are rarely discussed and,…

  17. Risk, value conflict and political legitimacy. Chapter 7

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cotgrove, S.

    1981-01-01

    The differing views of environmentalists, the public and industrialists on the perception of dangers to the environment are analysed. The subject is continued under the headings: competing paradigms; acceptable risk; values for money - flowers or production; a crisis of legitimacy (query). (U.K.)

  18. How political affiliation affects adaptation to climate risks: Evidence from New York City

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botzen, W.J.W.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Kunreuther, H; De Moel, H; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    Research reveals that liberals and conservatives in the United States diverge about their beliefs regarding climate change. We show empirically that political affiliation also matters with respect to climate related risks such as flooding from hurricanes. Our study is based on a survey conducted 6

  19. Political affiliation affects adaptation to climate risks : Evidence from New York City

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botzen, W. J Wouter; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Kunreuther, Howard; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2016-01-01

    Research reveals that liberals and conservatives in the United States diverge about their beliefs regarding climate change. We show empirically that political affiliation also matters with respect to climate related risks such as flooding from hurricanes. Our study is based on a survey conducted 6

  20. Site selection and rating process, and criteria for a social and political approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boisseson, P. de; David, J.F.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: sensitive projects have been for long the problem of engineers and geologists, which tried to exert a kind of mono-cultural approach upon decisions regarding: a type of technical solution, a choice for a location. Experience drawn from various projects shows that public choices must be targeted to public acceptance and not only to hard-science community. Ways of rating site for sensitive projects according to criteria derived from social and political approach have been set up to provide global advice to decision makers. Bases are found among: socio economical statistics (type and rate of employment), land use regulations, history of public and local acceptance of former projects or public regulations. Representations can be drawn through social modeling and qualitative analysis. They can be of an utmost importance in decision making process. (authors)

  1. The risk to be reasonably accepted - an unreasonable demand on science, society, politics?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, B.

    1986-01-01

    Political ethics is a concept that is increasingly emerging in current public debate about the risks of technolgy. A risk that cannot be limited in time or in space, the risk we have got used to call the 'risk to be reasonably accepted', seems unacceptable. Energy generation and supply may not be given higher priority than life and health. It would be high time to prove courage and efficiency by opposing the 'nuclear laws of inertia', stopping nuclear technoloy, and admitting one's own feeling of insecurity. (DG) [de

  2. Natural Rate of Education as the Factor of Stability of Political Regime. Part I

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Владимир Геннадьевич Иванов

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The given article contains hypothesis about the increasing level of influence of the system of tertiary education on stability of political regime in many modern countries. In order to reveal the mechanism of such influence the author proposes the concept natural rate of education which reflects optimal balance between labor market and educational system from the perspective of avoidance and tackling of social protests and instability. The author supposes that the stabilizing function of the system of tertiary education is caused by its role of the specific regulator of labor market and its capability to involve millions of young males, providing them long-term occupation. Under the state policy this stabilizing function may be enormously exaggerated and even reach the point of extremum and become counterproductive. The article contains interdisciplinary approach, being on junction of political science and economics. The author uses selected methodological foundations of theory of human capital and introduces the following notions: educational pyramid, educational bubble, educational scissors and others.

  3. Management and policy: political strategies and instruments of the risk types

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renn, O.; Klinke, A.

    1998-01-01

    The main objective of the risk classification is to gain an effective and feasible policy tool for the evaluation and the management or risks. The characterisation provides a platform for designing specific political strategies and measures for each risk type. The strategies pursue the goal to transform unacceptable into acceptable risks, i.e. the risks should not be reduced to zero, but they should be reduced to a level that routine risk management becomes sufficient to ensure safety and integrity. All strategies and respective measures are arranged according to priorities. In the normal case more than one strategy and more than one measure are naturally appropriate and necessary. If resources are limited, strategies and measures should be taken in line with the priority list. The following part lists the prior strategies and the prior measures recommended for each risk type. (authors)

  4. Political party affiliation, political ideology and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pabayo, Roman; Kawachi, Ichiro; Muennig, Peter

    2015-05-01

    Ecological and cross-sectional studies have indicated that conservative political ideology is associated with better health. Longitudinal analyses of mortality are needed because subjective assessments of ideology may confound subjective assessments of health, particularly in cross-sectional analyses. Data were derived from the 2008 General Social Survey-National Death Index data set. Cox proportional analysis models were used to determine whether political party affiliation or political ideology was associated with time to death. Also, we attempted to identify whether self-reported happiness and self-rated health acted as mediators between political beliefs and time to death. In this analysis of 32,830 participants and a total follow-up time of 498,845 person-years, we find that political party affiliation and political ideology are associated with mortality. However, with the exception of independents (adjusted HR (AHR)=0.93, 95% CI 0.90 to 0.97), political party differences are explained by the participants' underlying sociodemographic characteristics. With respect to ideology, conservatives (AHR=1.06, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.12) and moderates (AHR=1.06, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.11) are at greater risk for mortality during follow-up than liberals. Political party affiliation and political ideology appear to be different predictors of mortality. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  5. THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC NEWS ON THE EURO/RON EXCHANGE RATE: A GARCH APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    Cristi Spulbar; Mihai Nitoi

    2012-01-01

    Within this study we try to capture the impact of political news and economic news from euro area on the exchange rate between Romanian currency and euro. In order to do this we used a GARCH model. As we observed, both variables influence the exchange rate, this fact implying national currency depreciation and a volatility growth. The political news and the economic news positively affect the euro/ron exchange rate volatility. The two factors conjugation, as it has happened in the recent peri...

  6. THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC NEWS ON THE EURO/RON EXCHANGE RATE: A GARCH APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai Niţoi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Within this study we try to capture the impact of political news and economic news from euro area on the exchange rate between Romanian currency and euro. In order to do this we used a GARCH model. As we observed, both variables influence the exchange rate, this fact implying national currency depreciation and a volatility growth. The political news and the economic news positively affect the euro/ron exchange rate volatility. The two factors conjugation, as it has happened in the recent period is to be avoided because it can have financial and economic consequences with a very high cost for Romania.

  7. A rating for the risk; Ein Rating fuers Risiko

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faltermeier, Daniel [Meteocontrol GmbH, Augsburg (Germany). Technische Due Diligence PV

    2013-07-01

    The assessment of the quality and risks of the photovoltaics project plays an important role in the investment decision. Especially for very large projects, an extensive risk assessment of yield losses and technical tests are increasingly demanded by independent experts. A new method enables the evaluation of solar energy systems.

  8. Demographics and Volatile Social Security Wealth: Political Risks of Benefit Rule Changes in Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Christoph Borgmann; Matthias Heidler

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we address the question how the generosity of the benefit rule of the German public pension system has changed during the past three decades and how this development can be explained by demographic changes. Firstly, we illustrate the political risk of benefit rule changes for individuals. We find that depending on the birth year and the considered scenario the relative losses vary between 30 and nearly 60 percent. Secondly, we estimate how demographic developments have triggered...

  9. Asylum grant rates following medical evaluations of maltreatment among political asylum applicants in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lustig, Stuart L; Kureshi, Sarah; Delucchi, Kevin L; Iacopino, Vincent; Morse, Samantha C

    2008-02-01

    Although many individuals applying for political asylum allege maltreatment and sometimes torture in their countries of origin, the utility of medical evaluations in asylum adjudication has not been documented. This study compares the asylum grant rate among US asylum seekers who received medical evaluations from Physicians for Human Rights (PHR), with rates among asylum seekers who did not receive PHR evaluations. Retrospective analysis was carried out on all asylum cases referred to PHR between 2000 and 2004 for medical evaluations for which adjudication outcome was available. Basic demographic information was obtained: age, sex, country of origin, English language ability, US region where adjudication occurred, whether legal representation was pro bono, type of evaluation, provision of oral court testimony, and whether asylum seekers were in detention. Cases were analyzed descriptively and with chi square tests. Between 2000 and 2004, 1663 asylum seekers received medical evaluations from PHR; the adjudication status (either granted or denied) was determined in 746 cases at the time of the study. Of these cases, 89% were granted asylum, compared to the national average of 37.5% among US asylum seekers who did not receive PHR evaluations. Medical evaluations may be critical in the adjudications of asylum cases when maltreatment is alleged.

  10. Hedging endowment assurance products under interest rate and mortality risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, A.; Mahayni, A.

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyzes how model misspecification associated with both interest rate and mortality risk influences hedging decisions of insurance companies. For this purpose, diverse risk management strategies which are riskminimizing when model risk is ignored come into consideration. The

  11. A public health framework to translate risk factors related to political violence and war into multi-level preventive interventions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, J.T.V.M.

    2010-01-01

    Political violence, armed conflicts and human rights violations are produced by a variety of political, economic and socio-cultural factors. Conflicts can be analyzed with an interdisciplinary approach to obtain a global understanding of the relative contribution of risk and protective factors. A

  12. 12 CFR 615.5135 - Management of interest rate risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Management of interest rate risk. 615.5135... of interest rate risk. The board of directors of each Farm Credit Bank, bank for cooperatives, and agricultural credit bank shall develop and implement an interest rate risk management program as set forth in...

  13. The Politics of Hope and Despair: The Effect of Presidential Election Outcomes on Suicide Rates*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Classen, Timothy J.; Dunn, Richard A.

    2010-01-01

    Objectives This article examines the effect of election outcomes on suicide rates by combining the theory of social integration developed by Durkheim with the models of rational choice used in economics. Methods Theory predicts that states with a greater percentage of residents who supported the losing candidate would tend to exhibit a relative increase in suicide rates. However, being around others who also supported the losing candidate may indicate a greater degree of social integration at the local level, thereby lowering relative suicide rates. We therefore use fixed-effects regression of state suicide rates from 1981 to 2005 on state election outcomes during presidential elections to determine which effect is stronger. Results We find that the local effect of social integration is dominant. The suicide rate when a state supports the losing candidate will tend to be lower than if the state had supported the winning candidate—4.6 percent lower for males and 5.3 percent lower for females. Conclusion Social integration works at many levels; it not only affects suicide risk directly, but can mediate other shocks that influence suicide risk. PMID:20645463

  14. Trust, emotion, sex, politics, and science: surveying the risk-assessment battlefield.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slovic, P

    1999-08-01

    Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept "risk" and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by worldviews, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach--one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical analysis, and increase

  15. Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk-Assessment Battlefield

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slovic, Paul [Decision Research, Eugene, OR (United States)

    2001-07-01

    Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept 'risk' and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by world views, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach-one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical

  16. Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk-Assessment Battlefield

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slovic, Paul

    2001-01-01

    Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept 'risk' and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by world views, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach-one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical analysis, and increase

  17. Exchange rate policy under sovereign default risk

    OpenAIRE

    Schabert, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    We examine monetary policy options for a small open economy where sovereign default might occur due to intertemporal insolvency. Under interest rate policy and floating exchange rates the equilibrium is indetermined. Under a fixed exchange rate the equilibrium is uniquely determined and independent of sovereign default.

  18. POLAND IN AND OUTSIDE THE EURO ZONE – RISKS AND BENEFITS IN THE LIGHT OF NEW POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Dobrowolski

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the benefits and risks of Poland adopting the euro in the light of current political and economic conditions. For this purpose, the following research methods were used: literature research, intuitive method and descriptive statistics. Poland has fulfilled the criteria for nominal convergence for two years, apart from participating in the ERM II mechanism, but the political situation in the country precludes the adoption of measures leading to the euro zone. The future shape of this zone is yet unknown, as its closer integration is planned. Theoretical analysis indicates that the process of globalization makes it difficult for medium-sized, open-economy countries to pursue autonomous monetary and exchange rate policy, so the loss of these instruments after the adoption of the euro should not jeopardize long-term economic growth, even in the case of asymmetric shocks. The market mechanisms of restoring the balance and fiscal policy may then be used. The economy will also benefit from the elimination of transaction costs and exchange rate risks in the euro zone. The analysis shows that it is possible to use the opportunity for faster GDP growth associated with the adoption of the common currency if the right economic policy is pursued. Adopting the euro may also incur costs. For banks it can be the loss of foreign exchange earnings and commissions on FX hedge transactions. For the economy it can be the possibility of speculative bubbles, as a result of excessive consumption growth, caused by possibly too low interest rates. Expected benefits should, however, outweigh any losses.

  19. Exchange rate risks and their impact upon the energy market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abed Al-Zabidi

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of international business in Slovakia brought not only the opening of markets and expansion of enterprise possibilities but also an increase in the competition and new risks. One of such risks is also the exchange rate risk. The business that realizes a financial transaction exceeding borders of the state or derives his buying or selling prices in Slovak crowns from the foreign currency, is subjected to the exchange rate risks. The exchange rate risks are caused by volatility of exchange courses of Slovak crowns related to foreign currencies. The progress of exchange rates can considerably influence a real result of a transaction negatively; therefore it is important for enterprises to identify possible risks resulting from changes in exchange rates, so they could react accordingly.The proposed article is aimed at the explanation of basic techniques of minimizing exchange rate risks with the use of financial tools available on the financial market.

  20. The Juvenile Addiction Risk Rating: Development and Initial Psychometrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Michael; Newgent, Rebecca A.

    2016-01-01

    This article describes the development and psychometrics of the Juvenile Addiction Risk Rating. The Juvenile Addiction Risk Rating is a brief screening of addiction potential based on 10 risk factors predictive of youth alcohol and drug-related problems that assists examiners in more accurate treatment planning when self-report information is…

  1. Interest rate risk of life insurers: Evidence from accounting data

    OpenAIRE

    Möhlmann, Axel

    2017-01-01

    Life insurers are exposed to interest rate risk, and their liability side is typically more sensitive to interest rate changes than their asset side. This paper develops an accounting-based measure of interest rate sensitivity. My approach uses the coexistence of historical cost and market value accounting, which permits the observation of valuations for different discount rates. Using microdata, I show that German life insurers have a significant exposure to interest rate risk. However, ther...

  2. Simplifying cardiovascular risk estimation using resting heart rate.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-09-01

    Elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is a known, independent cardiovascular (CV) risk factor, but is not included in risk estimation systems, including Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). We aimed to derive risk estimation systems including RHR as an extra variable and assess the value of this addition.

  3. [The decline in the population growth rate--a priority issue in international politics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhein, E

    1994-08-25

    The Third International UN Conference on Population and Development took place in Cairo in early September 1994 with the participation of 200 governments and 1000 nongovernmental organizations to discuss ways of stabilizing world population at the possible lowest level and how industrialized countries could contribute to this effort. As a consequence of the advances in reproductive medicine the use of contraceptives skyrocketed: in 1994 more than half of men and women were using contraception compared to only 5% in 1950. However, the demographic momentum would still increase world population for another 100 years, even if fertility would drop to 2.2 children per couple (compared to 4 children in 1990). Nevertheless, the present generation could be instrumental in deciding whether the world's population will remain around 8 billion or reach 12 billion between 2050 and 2150. Poor countries can no longer afford an annual growth rate of 2-4% while also trying to improve living standards; this would require an economic growth rate of 6-8%. For the control of population growth both a sustainable environmental policy in the North, with rapid transition to renewable energy and recycling, and a more effective population policy in the South are needed. Family planning (FP) is the precondition of stabilization. The global FP outlays are envisioned to double from the 1994 figure of $5 billion to over $10 billion in the year 2000, with donor contributions to increase from 20% to 40% of the total. The US contribution is to double from $500 million by 2000, while the European Commission decided to boost expenditures for FP from DM 30 million in 1994 to DM 600 million by 2000. Japan is also expending $3 billion during this period. Recent promising developments have emerged: national pronatalist policies have diminished sharply and the pronatalist influence of religions has also declined. Political commitment at the highest level is central to a successful population policy as

  4. Exchange rate risk in Central European countries

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kočenda, Evžen; Poghosyan, T.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 1 (2010), s. 22-39 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/1376; GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : foreign exchange risk * time-varying risk premium * stochastic discount factor Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.278, year: 2010 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1178_str_22_39_-_ko%C4%8Denda.pdf

  5. Association of suicide rates, gun ownership, conservatism and individual suicide risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kposowa, Augustine J

    2013-09-01

    The purpose of the study was to examine the association of suicide rates, firearm ownership, political conservatism, religious integration at the state level, and individual suicide risk. Social structural and social learning and social integration theories were theoretical frameworks employed. It was hypothesized that higher suicide rates, higher state firearm availability, and state conservatism elevate individual suicide risk. Data were pooled from the Multiple Cause of Death Files. Multilevel logistic regression models were fitted to all deaths occurring in 2000 through 2004 by suicide. The state suicide rate significantly elevated individual suicide risk (AOR = 1.042, CI = 1.037, 1.046). Firearm availability at the state level was associated with significantly higher odds of individual suicide (AOR = 1.004, CI = 1.003, 1.006). State political conservatism elevated the odds of individual suicides (AOR = 1.005, CI = 1.003, 1.007), while church membership at the state level reduced individual odds of suicide (AOR = 0.995, CI = 0.993, 0.996). The results held even after controlling for socioeconomic and demographic variables at the individual level. It was concluded that the observed association between individual suicide odds and national suicide rates, and firearm ownership cannot be discounted. Future research ought to focus on integrating individual level data and contextual variables when testing for the impact of firearm ownership. Support was found for social learning and social integration theories.

  6. A new energy paradigm for Turkey: A political risk-inclusive cost analysis for sustainable energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oksay, Serhan; Iseri, Emre

    2011-01-01

    Implementing sustainable development policies in order to achieve economic and social development while maintaining adequate environmental protection to minimize the damage inflicted by the constantly increasing world population must be a major priority in the 21st century. While the emerging global debate on potential cost-effective responses has produced potential solutions such as cap and trade systems and/or carbon taxes as part of evolving sustainable energy/environmental policies, this kind of intellectual inquiry does not seem to be an issue among Turkish policy-making elites. This is mainly due to their miscalculation that pursuing sustainable energy policies is much more expensive in comparison to the utilization of fossil fuels such as natural gas. Nevertheless, the pegged prices of an energy sector dominated by natural gas are illusive, as both the political risks and environmental damage have not been incorporated into the current cost calculations. This paper evaluates energy policies through a lens of risk management and takes an alternative approach to calculating energy costs by factoring in political risks. This formulation reveals that the cost of traditional fossil-based energy is in fact more expensive than renewable energy. In addition to being environmentally friendly, the paradigm shift towards renewable energy policies would provide Turkey with a significant opportunity to stimulate its economy by being one of the first countries to develop green technologies and as a result this burgeoning sector would prompt job creation as well; mainly due to the externalities. - Research highlights: → This paper evaluates Turkish energy policies through risk management scope and takes an alternative approach on calculating electricity costs by factoring in political risks. → The cost of traditional fossil-based energy turns out to be more expensive than renewable energy. → The paradigm shift towards renewable energy policies could provide Turkey

  7. A new energy paradigm for Turkey: A political risk-inclusive cost analysis for sustainable energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oksay, Serhan, E-mail: serhano@khas.edu.t [Kadir Has University, Department of Business Administration (Turkey); Iseri, Emre, E-mail: eiseri@khas.edu.t [Kadir Has University, Department of International Relations, Cibali Campus, Kadir Has Caddesi 34083, Istanbul (Turkey)

    2011-05-15

    Implementing sustainable development policies in order to achieve economic and social development while maintaining adequate environmental protection to minimize the damage inflicted by the constantly increasing world population must be a major priority in the 21st century. While the emerging global debate on potential cost-effective responses has produced potential solutions such as cap and trade systems and/or carbon taxes as part of evolving sustainable energy/environmental policies, this kind of intellectual inquiry does not seem to be an issue among Turkish policy-making elites. This is mainly due to their miscalculation that pursuing sustainable energy policies is much more expensive in comparison to the utilization of fossil fuels such as natural gas. Nevertheless, the pegged prices of an energy sector dominated by natural gas are illusive, as both the political risks and environmental damage have not been incorporated into the current cost calculations. This paper evaluates energy policies through a lens of risk management and takes an alternative approach to calculating energy costs by factoring in political risks. This formulation reveals that the cost of traditional fossil-based energy is in fact more expensive than renewable energy. In addition to being environmentally friendly, the paradigm shift towards renewable energy policies would provide Turkey with a significant opportunity to stimulate its economy by being one of the first countries to develop green technologies and as a result this burgeoning sector would prompt job creation as well; mainly due to the externalities. - Research highlights: {yields} This paper evaluates Turkish energy policies through risk management scope and takes an alternative approach on calculating electricity costs by factoring in political risks. {yields} The cost of traditional fossil-based energy turns out to be more expensive than renewable energy. {yields} The paradigm shift towards renewable energy policies could

  8. Interest Rate Risk Management using Duration Gap Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Armeanu

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The world for financial institutions has changed during the last 20 years, and become riskier and more competitive-driven. After the deregulation of the financial market, banks had to take on extensive risk in order to earn sufficient returns. Interest rate volatility has increased dramatically over the past twenty-five years and for that an efficient management of this interest rate risk is strong required. In the last years banks developed a variety of methods for measuring and managing interest rate risk. From these the most frequently used in real banking life and recommended by Basel Committee are based on: Reprising Model or Funding Gap Model, Maturity Gap Model, Duration Gap Model, Static and Dynamic Simulation. The purpose of this article is to give a good understanding of duration gap model used for managing interest rate risk. The article starts with a overview of interest rate risk and explain how this type of risk should be measured and managed within an asset-liability management. Then the articles takes a short look at methods for measuring interest rate risk and after that explains and demonstrates how can be used Duration Gap Model for managing interest rate risk in banks.The world for financial institutions has changed during the last 20 years, and become riskier and more competitive-driven. After the deregulation of the financial market, banks had to take on extensive risk in order to earn sufficient returns. Interest rate volatility has increased dramatically over the past twenty-five years and for that an efficient management of this interest rate risk is strong required. In the last years banks developed a variety of methods for measuring and managing interest rate risk. From these the most frequently used in real banking life and recommended by Basel Committee are based on: Reprising Model or Funding Gap Model, Maturity Gap Model, Duration Gap Model, Static and Dynamic Simulation. The purpose of this article is to give a

  9. Self-rated health and cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roelsgaard, Ida Kristiane; Olesen, Anne Marie; Simonsen, Mette Kildevæld

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Self-rated health (SRH) has been shown to be a strong predictor of mortality from a number of major chronic diseases, however, the association with cancer remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate a possible association between change in SRH and cancer incidence...... proportional hazards model with adjustment for age, smoking, alcohol, marital status, physical activity, body mass index and estrogen replacement therapy. RESULTS: No significant association was found between SRH and overall cancer incidence in the age-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model (1.04; 95% CI 0...

  10. Real interest rates, leverage, and bank risk-taking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dell’Ariccia, G.; Laeven, L.; Marquez, R.

    2014-01-01

    Do low interest rate environments lead to greater bank risk-taking? We show that, when banks can adjust their capital structures, reductions in real interest rates lead to greater leverage and higher risk for any downward sloping loan demand function. However, if the capital structure is fixed, the

  11. Interest Rate Risk Management using Duration Gap Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Armeanu

    2008-01-01

    should be measured and managed within an asset-liability management. Then the articles takes a short look at methods for measuring interest rate risk and after that explains and demonstrates how can be used Duration Gap Model for managing interest rate risk in banks.

  12. Credit ratings and CEO risk-taking incentives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuang, Y.; Qin, B.

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the sophistication of rating agencies in incorporating managerial risk-taking incentives into their credit risk evaluation. We measure risk-taking incentives using two proxies: the sensitivity of managerial wealth to stock return volatility (vega) and the sensitivity of

  13. Economic, Socio-Political and Environmental Risks of Road Development in the Tropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alamgir, Mohammed; Campbell, Mason J; Sloan, Sean; Goosem, Miriam; Clements, Gopalasamy Reuben; Mahmoud, Mahmoud I; Laurance, William F

    2017-10-23

    It is projected that 25 million km of new paved roads will be developed globally by 2050 - enough to encircle the planet more than 600 times. Roughly 90% of new roads will be built in developing nations, frequently in tropical and subtropical regions with high biodiversity and environmental values. Many developing nations are borrowing from international lenders or negotiating access to their natural resources in order to expand their transportation infrastructure. Given the unprecedented pace and extent of these initiatives, it is vital to thoroughly assess the potential consequences of large-scale road and highway projects. In appropriate contexts and locales, new roads can promote sizeable economic and social benefits. If poorly planned or implemented, however, new roads can provoke serious cost overruns, corruption and environmental impacts, while generating sparse economic benefits and intense social and political conflict. Using examples from developing nations, we identify risks that can hinder road projects in wet and dry tropical environments. Such risks, we assert, are often inadequately considered by project proponents, evaluators and the general public, creating a systematic tendency to overestimate project benefits while understating project risks. A more precautionary approach is needed to reduce risks while maximizing benefits of new road projects in the tropics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. The pharmaceuticalization of sexual risk: vaccine development and the new politics of cancer prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamo, Laura; Epstein, Steven

    2014-01-01

    Vaccine development is a core component of pharmaceutical industry activity and a key site for studying pharmaceuticalization processes. In recent decades, two so-called cancer vaccines have entered the U.S. medical marketplace: a vaccine targeting hepatitis B virus (HBV) to prevent liver cancers and a vaccine targeting human papillomavirus (HPV) to prevent cervical and other cancers. These viruses are two of six sexually transmissible infectious agents (STIs) that are causally linked to the development of cancers; collectively they reference an expanding approach to apprehending cancer that focuses attention simultaneously "inward" toward biomolecular processes and "outward" toward risk behaviors, sexual practices, and lifestyles. This paper juxtaposes the cases of HBV and HPV and their vaccine trajectories to analyze how vaccines, like pharmaceuticals more generally, are emblematic of contemporary pharmaceuticalization processes. We argue that individualized risk, in this case sexual risk, is produced and treated by scientific claims of links between STIs and cancers and through pharmaceutical company and biomedical practices. Simultaneous processes of sexualization and pharmaceuticalization mark these cases. Our comparison demonstrates that these processes are not uniform, and that the production of risks, subjects, and bodies depends not only on the specificities of vaccine development but also on the broader political and cultural frames within which sexuality is understood. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Interest Rate Risk Management and the Use of Derivative Securities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioana-Diana PĂUN

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to demonstrate the utility of derivative financial instruments for the management of interest rate risk that is faced by banks and financial institutions, and to provide an efficient flow of monitoring and control thereof. Banking institutions can now use a combination of balance sheet and off balance sheet measures, i.e. gap method, of interest rate risk management, in order to control exposure of short-term rates and derivatives to control the residual interest rate exposures. The result of the study shows that banks can achieve better diversification and risk management using derivatives.

  16. TECHNICAL RISK RATING OF DOE ENVIRONMENTAL PROJECTS - 9153

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cercy, M.; Fayfich, Ronald; Schneider, Steven P.

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) was established to achieve the safe and compliant disposition of legacy wastes and facilities from defense nuclear applications. The scope of work is diverse, with projects ranging from single acquisitions to collections of projects and operations that span several decades and costs from hundreds of millions to billions US$. The need to be able to manage and understand the technical risks from the project to senior management level has been recognized as an enabler to successfully completing the mission. In 2008, DOE-EM developed the Technical Risk Rating as a new method to assist in managing technical risk based on specific criteria. The Technical Risk Rating, and the criteria used to determine the rating, provides a mechanism to foster open, meaningful communication between the Federal Project Directors and DOE-EM management concerning project technical risks. Four indicators (technical maturity, risk urgency, handling difficulty and resolution path) are used to focus attention on the issues and key aspects related to the risks. Pressing risk issues are brought to the forefront, keeping DOE-EM management informed and engaged such that they fully understand risk impact. Use of the Technical Risk Rating and criteria during reviews provides the Federal Project Directors the opportunity to openly discuss the most significant risks and assists in the management of technical risks across the portfolio of DOE-EM projects. Technical Risk Ratings can be applied to all projects in government and private industry. This paper will present the methodology and criteria for Technical Risk Ratings, and provide specific examples from DOE-EM projects

  17. A public health framework to translate risk factors related to political violence and war into multi-level preventive interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Jong, Joop T V M

    2010-01-01

    Political violence, armed conflicts and human rights violations are produced by a variety of political, economic and socio-cultural factors. Conflicts can be analyzed with an interdisciplinary approach to obtain a global understanding of the relative contribution of risk and protective factors. A public health framework was designed to address these risk factors and protective factors. The framework resulted in a matrix that combined primary, secondary and tertiary interventions with their implementation on the levels of the society-at-large, the community, and the family and individual. Subsequently, the risk and protective factors were translated into multi-sectoral, multi-modal and multi-level preventive interventions involving the economy, governance, diplomacy, the military, human rights, agriculture, health, and education. Then the interventions were slotted in their appropriate place in the matrix. The interventions can be applied in an integrative form by international agencies, governments and non-governmental organizations, and molded to meet the requirements of the historic, political-economic and socio-cultural context. The framework maps the complementary fit among the different actors while engaging themselves in preventive, rehabilitative and reconstructive interventions. The framework shows how the economic, diplomatic, political, criminal justice, human rights, military, health and rural development sectors can collaborate to promote peace or prevent the aggravation or continuation of violence. A deeper understanding of the association between risk and protective factors and the developmental pathways of generic, country-specific and culture-specific factors leading to political violence is needed.

  18. Theory and methodology of social, political and economic processes risks determining in different countries of the world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yashina Nadezhda, I.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The study deals with the problems of the theory and methodology of social, political and economic processes risks in different countries with relative indicators of the socio-economic development level, as well as the size and condition of the public debt. Developed by the authors the methodology of determining the risks of social, political and economic processes of public policy around the world revealed close relationship between socio-economic situation of the countries and their public debt. Within the framework of this methodology two groups of factors characterizing the socio-political and economic processes in the country are being developed. After that each exponent and indicator are being processed, using expert procedures. Maximum statutory values for tentatively referenced countries with effective and ineffective government policies are identified. Then standardization (specification and definition of integral (generalized indexes of socio-political and economic processes in the country are taking place. After that the ranking of countries by aggregated standardized ratio is arranged, taking into account the significance of the developed indicators. The final phase of implementation methodology is identifying risks of social, political and economic processes of public policy around the world. This is the ranking of countries by ratio of stability in public policy (stability of economic and socio-political processes in the country. As the result of implementation methodology the following output was received: what really makes a difference is not the amount of the country's debt, but how effectively it manages this debt, whether it has a goal to improve social and economic indicators. Practical testing methodology has proven that studied indicators fully characterize the development of the countries, their political, social and economic situation on the world stage.

  19. The political economy of trans-Pakistan gas pipeline project: assessing the political and economic risks for India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pandian, S.

    2005-01-01

    There is a growing realisation among Indian policy makers to consider the import of natural gas to address India's growing energy demand. Among many policy options to import natural gas, Indo-Iran overland pipeline option is considered to be effective and economical in addressing India's long-term energy demands. Such a pipeline would have to traverse Pakistani territory thereby necessitating a role for Pakistan in the pipeline project. Though security guarantees have been offered, India refuses to entertain the role of Pakistan in the project for a fear of its energy supply being disrupted in case of a military conflict with Pakistan. This paper argues that gas pipeline project is not only aimed at addressing India's energy concerns but also to further its strategic objectives. This paper contends that India, Iran and Pakistan do not have shared objective to make the overland project a political and commercial reality. India's stakes in the overland pipeline project are high as India's economic interests in the pipeline project are not in congruence with the politico-economic and strategic objectives of Iran and Pakistan. (author)

  20. Inappropriate use of payment weights to risk adjust readmission rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Richard L; Goldfield, Norbert I; Averill, Richard F; Hughes, John S

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the authors demonstrate that the use of relative weights, as incorporated within the National Quality Forum-endorsed PacifiCare readmission measure, is inappropriate for risk adjusting rates of hospital readmission.

  1. Risks and rewards of variable-rate debt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordahl, Eric A

    2012-05-01

    Hospital and health system finance leaders should position their organizations to participate in the variable-rate market. To this end, one important step is to establish the right baseline variable-rate exposure target for the organization based on its credit and risk profile. Leaders also should be thoroughly familiar with the available products and understand the circumstances (pricing, terms, and embedded risk) under which the organization would be willing to deploy them within the overall capital structure.

  2. Study of the effect of political measures on the citizen participation rate in recycling and on the environmental load reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsui, Yasuhiro; Tanaka, Masaru; Ohsako, Masahiro

    2007-01-01

    Obtaining the cooperation of citizens to participate in separate waste collection is essential to create a recycling-oriented society. In this research, the degree of change in the citizen participation rate, which occurs when the contents of political measures such as the raising of awareness, provision of information, and the conditions of collection services were changed, was estimated together with the effect on the reduction in environmental load. A questionnaire survey was conducted, targeted at residents of Itabashi Ward, while logistic regression analyses were also conducted to create predictive models for recycling behavior, and sensitivity analyses of the models were carried out to estimate the increase in citizen participation rate achievable through the implementation of various political measures. It was found that the effect of 'thorough perception of information' was the largest, followed by 'minimization of evaluation of trouble' and 'thorough perception of efficacy of measures.' The effect of the improvement in the citizen participation rate on the reduction in environmental load was also evaluated quantitatively by life cycle inventory analyses. It was indicated that 'maximization of perception of information' had the greatest effect. However, the reduction effect with 'paper packs' and 'PET bottles' was relatively small compared with that of 'bottles/cans.'

  3. Labor and Love: Wives' Employment and Divorce Risk in its Socio-Political Context

    OpenAIRE

    L. P. Cooke; J. Erola; M. Evertsson; M. Gahler; J. Harkonen; B. Hewitt; M. Jalovaara; M.-Y. Kan; T. H. Lyngstad; L. Mencarini; J.-F. Mignot; D. Mortelmans; A.-R. Poortman; C. Schmitt; H. Trappe

    2013-01-01

    We theorize how social policy affects marital stability vis-à-vis macro and micro effects of wives' employment on divorce risk in 11 Western countries. Correlations among 1990s aggregate data on marriage, divorce, and wives' employment rates, along with attitudinal and social policy information, seem to support specialization hypotheses that divorce rates are higher where more wives are employed and where policies support that employment. This is an ecological fallacy, however, because of the...

  4. THE POLITICS OF THE NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA TO DEAL WITH CREDITING RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vechiu Camelia

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The market economy refers to the implicit presence of a banking system which could ensure the mobilization of all the monetary resources of the respective economy and their temporary orientation towards the development of efficient economic activities. A significant aspect of the bank performance refers to the measurement of risks with the aim to diminish them. If the bank management is poor and the risks are not taken into consideration, it will be possible that the earning capacity to be reduced and to lead even to the bankruptcy. Due to the fact that the banks are lending, they assume risks which are determined by the doubtful debtor (it appears the insolvency, or by the general economic evolution (which involves interest and exchange rate risks, or by the financial structure of the bank (financing long-term credits from short or sight deposits. The bank risk can be determined by external or internal factors of the bank due to the competitive environment. In the professional literature, the methodology used for the risk management involves several steps: the risk identification and analysis; the risk elimination and control; the risk assessment and assuming; the risk financing by debiting the general or specific reserves or by transfer which means the insurance of the bank company. For those banks operating in Romania, the risks are even more evident due to the hostile environment in which they operate, but also due to the specificity of the Romanian banking system which is still evolving and adapting to the competitive stringencies of the market economy. This paper is trying to follow the risk involvement towards the bank activity taking into account its importance and role in order to ensure the increase of the bank earning capacity.

  5. 75 FR 13145 - SBA Lender Risk Rating System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-18

    ... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION [Docket No. SBA-2010-0004] SBA Lender Risk Rating System AGENCY: Small Business Administration. ACTION: Notice; extension of comment period and correction. SUMMARY: On... of Credit Risk Management, U.S. Small Business Administration, 409 Third Street, SW., 8th Floor...

  6. Risk and complication rate of uterine fibroid embolization (UFE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radeleff, B.; Rimbach, S.; Kauffmann, G.W.; Richter, G.M.

    2003-01-01

    Our goal was to evaluate risks and complication rate of uterine fibroid embolization (UFE). The most frequent complications reported in the literature are associated with angiography procedure, serious complications are extremely infrequent. The embolization of fibroids is a safe angiographic intervention. Nevertheless, the interventional radiologist must be aware of the common risks and complication and the strategies to avoid them. (orig.) [de

  7. College Students' Perceived Disease Risk versus Actual Prevalence Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Matthew Lee; Dickerson, Justin B.; Sosa, Erica T.; McKyer, E. Lisako J.; Ory, Marcia G.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To compare college students' perceived disease risk with disease prevalence rates. Methods: Data were analyzed from 625 college students collected with an Internet-based survey. Paired t-tests were used to separately compare participants' perceived 10-year and lifetime disease risk for 4 diseases: heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and…

  8. SRP meeting: social and political implications of communicating radiation risk, Daresbury, Warrington, 20 June 2001

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davies, Karen

    2001-12-01

    The SRP held a very interesting meeting in June at the Daresbury Laboratory in Warrington on the social and political implications of communicating radiation risk. In today's risk-aware society, effective communication is just as important as the control measures introduced to prevent or restrict exposure. In relation to radiation protection, risk communicators had a hard job because of: Public dread Likelihood of risk intensification Perceived inequitable distribution of risks. The higher the uncertainty, the more wary people were likely to be. Julie cited the International Nuclear Events Scale (INES) as a possible tool for promoting a consistent message across all publics. This was because it aimed to put events into proper perspective and provide a common understanding amongst the nuclear community, the media and the public. Julie summed up by saying that the risk communication was not just any form of communication and the issue of communicating radiation risks involved special consideration. Further research established that the more information given to the local population, the more likely that they would deny that there was a problem. Denial could moderate beliefs or emotional reactions to a situation. This then affected their dose as they were more likely to adopt risky behaviour by eating contaminated food and entering contaminated areas. Avoiding the need to undertake safe behaviour reduced stress levels. Furthermore, people adopted beliefs to suit their situation. For example, some inhabitants of the affected areas became adapted to the radiation and actually felt worse outside the contaminated area. There was strong pressure for the maintenance of a situation which actually prevented appropriate precautions being taken. Peter concluded that there was often confusion over the details of technical information that sometimes might not help to prevent a course of action being taken. However on a positive note the research did find credence and

  9. Emotions, Public Opinion, and U.S. Presidential Approval Rates: A 5-Year Analysis of Online Political Discussions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Bailon, Sandra; Banchs, Rafael E.; Kaltenbrunner, Andreas

    2012-01-01

    This article examines how emotional reactions to political events shape public opinion. We analyze political discussions in which people voluntarily engage online to approximate the public agenda: Online discussions offer a natural approach to the salience of political issues and the means to analyze emotional reactions as political events take…

  10. The effects of name and religious priming on ratings of a well-known political figure, President Barack Obama.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Gary A; Guichard, AnaMarie C; An, JungHa

    2017-01-01

    Priming with race-typed names and religious concepts have been shown to activate stereotypes and increase prejudice towards out-groups. We examined the effects of name and religious word priming on views of a specific and well-known person, President Barack Obama. We predicted that politically conservative participants primed with President Obama's middle name (Hussein) would rate him more negatively and be more likely to view him as a Muslim than those not shown his middle name. We also examined whether conservatives primed with concrete religious words would rate President Obama more negatively and be more likely to view him as Muslim than those primed with other word types. Furthermore, we predicted that those who mis-identify President Obama as Muslim would rate him more negatively than would those who view him as Christian. The results provided mixed support for these hypotheses. Conservatives primed with President Obama's middle name rated him significantly more negatively than did those in the control condition. This effect was not found for politically liberal or moderate participants. Name priming did not significantly affect views of President Obama's religious affiliation. Although not statistically significant, conservatives primed with abstract religious words tended to rate President Obama more negatively than did those primed with other word types. Religious word priming significantly influenced views of President Obama's religious affiliation; interestingly, participants primed with abstract religious words were more likely to think President Obama is Muslim than were those primed with religious agent or non-religious words. As predicted, participants who thought president Obama was Muslim rated him significantly more negatively than did those who thought he was Christian. Overall, our results provide some evidence that ethnic name and religious word priming can significantly influence opinions, even with a well-known and specific person.

  11. The social construction of risk and the controversial Brazilian Nuclear Program: among scientific, political and public

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camelo, Ana Paula

    2015-01-01

    This research aims to investigate the Brazilian Nuclear Program (PNB) stating as reference the Fukushima nuclear accident. Its main purpose is to analyze how the Japanese accident impacted the PNB. Therefore, the program will be analyzed within 10-years (2004-2014) in order to answer this question. The discussion launched in this thesis is based on the framework of the Social Studies of Science and Technology, which enables the understanding of socio-technical controversies beyond the social or technological determinism. Through the discussion of the concepts of framing, socio-technical imaginary, risk and governance of science and technology, the research shows how the controversy in focus has resulted in the opportunity to consider not only economic, technological, environmental issues about nuclear energy, but also its political dimensions and challenges. Among these challenges, and from very different perspectives, arise questions about the role nuclear energy plays in the Brazilian context, the future of the program and the decision making process on these issues. Despite the central purpose of this study is essentially on risks, PNB and on the Brazilian context, it should be pointed that it is impossible to consider it in isolation of what is happening internationally (considering interests, tensions, relations between actors, etc.) The research thereby identifies key implications of Fukushima in the international context, but focuses on the disputes regarding possible review of the PNB. It also highlights how the socio-technical controversies, such as the nuclear energy, demand or impose a discussion on the governance of science and technology, risk and on the engagement of different sectors and actors in decision-making on issues, that are at the same time about energy, technology and nationality relevance. All this reflection is made from multi-sited analysis, which allowed following the controversy surrounding nuclear energy, reheated by the Fukushima

  12. Making sense of climate change risks and responses at the community level: A cultural-political lens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ainka A. Granderson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available How to better assess, communicate and respond to risks from climate change at the community level have emerged as key questions within climate risk management. Recent research to address these questions centres largely on psychological factors, exploring how cognition and emotion lead to biases in risk assessment. Yet, making sense of climate change and its responses at the community level demands attention to the cultural and political processes that shape how risk is conceived, prioritized and managed. I review the emergent literature on risk perceptions and responses to climate change using a cultural-political lens. This lens highlights how knowledge, meaning and power are produced and negotiated across multiple stakeholders at the community level. It draws attention to the different ways of constructing climate change risks and suggests an array of responses at the community level. It further illustrates how different constructions of risk intersect with agency and power to shape the capacity for response and collective action. What matters are whose constructions of risk, and whose responses, count in decision-making. I argue for greater engagement with the interpretive social sciences in research, practice and policy. The interpretive social sciences offer theories and tools for capturing and problematising the ways of knowing, sense-making and mobilising around risks from climate change. I also highlight the importance of participatory approaches in incorporating the multiplicity of interests at the community level into climate risk management in fair, transparent and culturally appropriate ways.

  13. KRW/USD Exchange Rate Volatility and Efficient Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Sang-Yong Joo; Chae-Shick Chung; Young-Woo Lee

    1999-01-01

    This thesis analyzes the relationship between the exchange rate of Korean Won and US dollar and the amount of foreign exchange, and studies the direction of the amendment of the risk control of foreign exchange. The GARCH (Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) model which visually embodies the auto-regress of the wave of exchange rate shows that the amount of trade will enhance the fluidity of the exchange rate, that is, the various expects of the participators of the ma...

  14. Failure rate data for fusion safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadwallader, L.C.

    1993-01-01

    The Fusion Safety Program (FSP) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) conducts safety research in materials, chemical reactions, safety analysis, risk assessment, and in component research and development to support existing magnetic fusion experiments and also to promote safety in the design of future experiments. One of the areas of safety research is applying probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods to fusion experiments. To apply PRA, we need a fusion-relevant radiological dose code and a component failure rate data base. This paper describes the FSP effort to develop a failure rate data base for fusion-specific components

  15. 77 FR 57990 - Interest Rate Risk Policy and Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-19

    ... NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 741 RIN 3133-AD66 Interest Rate Risk Policy and Program Correction In rule document 2012-02091, appearing on pages 55155-5167 in the issue of Thursday, February 2, 2012, make the following corrections: 1. On page 5157, in the second column, in the first line...

  16. Government spending shocks, sovereign risk and the exchange rate regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonam, D.; Lukkezen, J.H.J.

    2014-01-01

    Keynesian theory predicts output responses upon a fiscal expansion in a small open economy to be larger under fixed than floating exchange rates. We analyse the effects of fiscal expansions using a New Keynesian model and find that the reverse holds in the presence of sovereign default risk. By

  17. Courting disaster: How diversification rate affects fitness under risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratcliff, William C; Hawthorne, Peter; Libby, Eric

    2015-01-01

    Life is full of risk. To deal with this uncertainty, many organisms have evolved bet-hedging strategies that spread risk through phenotypic diversification. These rates of diversification can vary by orders of magnitude in different species. Here we examine how key characteristics of risk and organismal ecology affect the fitness consequences of variation in diversification rate. We find that rapid diversification is strongly favored when the risk faced has a wide spatial extent, with a single disaster affecting a large fraction of the population. This advantage is especially great in small populations subject to frequent disaster. In contrast, when risk is correlated through time, slow diversification is favored because it allows adaptive tracking of disasters that tend to occur in series. Naturally evolved diversification mechanisms in diverse organisms facing a broad array of environmental risks largely support these results. The theory presented in this article provides a testable ecological hypothesis to explain the prevalence of slow stochastic switching among microbes and rapid, within-clutch diversification strategies among plants and animals. PMID:25410817

  18. Courting disaster: How diversification rate affects fitness under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratcliff, William C; Hawthorne, Peter; Libby, Eric

    2015-01-01

    Life is full of risk. To deal with this uncertainty, many organisms have evolved bet-hedging strategies that spread risk through phenotypic diversification. These rates of diversification can vary by orders of magnitude in different species. Here we examine how key characteristics of risk and organismal ecology affect the fitness consequences of variation in diversification rate. We find that rapid diversification is strongly favored when the risk faced has a wide spatial extent, with a single disaster affecting a large fraction of the population. This advantage is especially great in small populations subject to frequent disaster. In contrast, when risk is correlated through time, slow diversification is favored because it allows adaptive tracking of disasters that tend to occur in series. Naturally evolved diversification mechanisms in diverse organisms facing a broad array of environmental risks largely support these results. The theory presented in this article provides a testable ecological hypothesis to explain the prevalence of slow stochastic switching among microbes and rapid, within-clutch diversification strategies among plants and animals. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  19. KRW/USD Exchange Rate Volatility and Efficient Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang-Yong Joo

    1999-03-01

    Full Text Available This thesis analyzes the relationship between the exchange rate of Korean Won and US dollar and the amount of foreign exchange, and studies the direction of the amendment of the risk control of foreign exchange. The GARCH (Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model which visually embodies the auto-regress of the wave of exchange rate shows that the amount of trade will enhance the fluidity of the exchange rate, that is, the various expects of the participators of the market affect the amount of trade and the fluidity, so in the process of trading, the trader who is in the dry tree of information bears more trading expenditure. It is predicted that the liberalization of foreign exchange rate and fluctuated exchange rate system will jointly bring the enhancement of the fluidity of the exchange rate and the amount of exchange trade. The change of this system will bring the rise of participators in foreign exchange market; meanwhile, it will also initiate superfluous fluidity of foreign exchange market. In order to overcome this problem, the government needs to implement the development strategy of the understructure of the foreign exchange market and the enterprises need to carry through systemic exchange rate risk control.

  20. Political, socio-economic, legal and civilizational risks on the way of Russia and the slavonic world towards sustainable development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey N. Baburin

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective to identify the political socioeconomic and legal risks on the way of Russia and the Slavonic world towards sustainable development. Methods dialectical approach to cognition of social phenomena allowing to analyze them in historical development and functioning in the context of the totality of objective and subjective factors that determined the choice of the following research methods systematic and structural formallegal and comparativelegal. Results the article views the system of risks on the way of Russia and the Slavonic world towards sustainable development which includes political socioeconomic legal and civilizational risks. Scientific recommendations are formulated for the identification analysis and elimination of risks. The main tendencies of the world order are identified changes in the structure of the statesrsquo national interests strengthening the role of nonstate actors promotion of democratic values and ideals the increasing role of international and interstate cooperation. Scientific novelty the article proposes a classification of risks that stand in the way of Russia and the Slavonic world towards sustainable development the necessity of their complex including constitutional overcoming and identifies the causes and conditions contributing to the emergence of the risks. Practical significance the main provisions and conclusions of the article can be used in scientific and educational activities in addressing the issues of planning and predicting the state and legal phenomena and processes.

  1. Abdominoplasty: Risk Factors, Complication Rates, and Safety of Combined Procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winocour, Julian; Gupta, Varun; Ramirez, J Roberto; Shack, R Bruce; Grotting, James C; Higdon, K Kye

    2015-11-01

    Among aesthetic surgery procedures, abdominoplasty is associated with a higher complication rate, but previous studies are limited by small sample sizes or single-institution experience. A cohort of patients who underwent abdominoplasty between 2008 and 2013 was identified from the CosmetAssure database. Major complications were recorded. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed evaluating risk factors, including age, smoking, body mass index, sex, diabetes, type of surgical facility, and combined procedures. The authors identified 25,478 abdominoplasties from 183,914 procedures in the database. Of these, 8,975 patients had abdominoplasty alone and 16,503 underwent additional procedures. The number of complications recorded was 1,012 (4.0 percent overall rate versus 1.4 percent in other aesthetic surgery procedures). Of these, 31.5 percent were hematomas, 27.2 percent were infections and 20.2 percent were suspected or confirmed venous thromboembolism. On multivariate analysis, significant risk factors (p procedures (1.5), and procedure performance in a hospital or surgical center versus office-based surgical suite (1.6). Combined procedures increased the risk of complication (abdominoplasty alone, 3.1 percent; with liposuction, 3.8 percent; breast procedure, 4.3 percent; liposuction and breast procedure, 4.6 percent; body-contouring procedure, 6.8 percent; liposuction and body-contouring procedure, 10.4 percent). Abdominoplasty is associated with a higher complication rate compared with other aesthetic procedures. Combined procedures can significantly increase complication rates and should be considered carefully in higher risk patients. Risk, II.

  2. Recovering Risk-Neutral Densities from Brazilian Interest Rate Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Renato Haas Ornelas

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Building Risk-Neutral Density (RND from options data is one useful way for extracting market expectations about a financial variable. For a sample of IDI (Brazilian Interbank Deposit Rate Index options from 1998 to 2009, this paper estimates the option-implied Risk-Neutral Densities for the Brazilian short rate using three methods: Shimko, Mixture of Two Log-Normals and Generalized Beta of Second Kind. Our in-sample goodness-of-fit evaluation shows that the Mixture of Log-Normals method provides better fitting to option’s data than the other two methods. The shape of log-normal distributions seems to fit well to the mean-reversal dynamics of Brazilian interest rates. We have also calculated the RND implied Skewness, showing how it could have provided market early-warning signals of the monetary policy outcomes in 2002 and 2003. Overall, Risk-Neutral Densities implied on IDI options showed to be a useful tool for extracting market expectations about future outcomes of the monetary policy.

  3. Seeing Red, Feeling Blue: The Impact of State Political Leaning on State Identification Rates for Emotional Disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, Andrew; Siperstein, Gary

    2011-01-01

    Investigations of why students with emotional disturbance (ED) are underidentified in special education have often focused on economic factors and problems with the definition of ED. The present study focuses on variation in underidentification across states and its relationship to political ideology. State-level political, economic, and…

  4. The role of finance in economic development : Benefits, risks, and politics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beck, T.H.L.; Müller, D.C.

    2012-01-01

    This article explores the role of the financial sector for economic growth, the causes and consequences of financial fragility, and the politics behind financial deepening and fragility. In doing so, it identifies the critical role of the financial sector within capitalist economies, a role with

  5. Risk Analysis using Corrosion Rate Parameter on Gas Transmission Pipeline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasikirono, B.; Kim, S. J.; Haryadi, G. D.; Huda, A.

    2017-05-01

    In the oil and gas industry, the pipeline is a major component in the transmission and distribution process of oil and gas. Oil and gas distribution process sometimes performed past the pipeline across the various types of environmental conditions. Therefore, in the transmission and distribution process of oil and gas, a pipeline should operate safely so that it does not harm the surrounding environment. Corrosion is still a major cause of failure in some components of the equipment in a production facility. In pipeline systems, corrosion can cause failures in the wall and damage to the pipeline. Therefore it takes care and periodic inspections or checks on the pipeline system. Every production facility in an industry has a level of risk for damage which is a result of the opportunities and consequences of damage caused. The purpose of this research is to analyze the level of risk of 20-inch Natural Gas Transmission Pipeline using Risk-based inspection semi-quantitative based on API 581 associated with the likelihood of failure and the consequences of the failure of a component of the equipment. Then the result is used to determine the next inspection plans. Nine pipeline components were observed, such as a straight pipes inlet, connection tee, and straight pipes outlet. The risk assessment level of the nine pipeline’s components is presented in a risk matrix. The risk level of components is examined at medium risk levels. The failure mechanism that is used in this research is the mechanism of thinning. Based on the results of corrosion rate calculation, remaining pipeline components age can be obtained, so the remaining lifetime of pipeline components are known. The calculation of remaining lifetime obtained and the results vary for each component. Next step is planning the inspection of pipeline components by NDT external methods.

  6. Race, gender, and sexual orientation in hate crime victimization: identity politics or identity risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunbar, Edward

    2006-06-01

    This study examined the impact of hate crimes upon gay and lesbian victims, reviewing 1538 hate crimes committed in Los Angeles County. Differences between sexual orientation and other hate crime categories were considered for offense severity, reportage to law enforcement, and victim impact. The type of offense varied between crimes classified for sexual orientation (n=551) and other bias-motivated crimes (n=987). Assault, sexual assault, sexual harassment, and stalking were predictive of sexual orientation hate crimes. Sexual orientation bias crimes evidenced greater severity of violence to the person and impact upon victim level of functioning. More violent forms of aggression were predictive of gay and lesbian victim's underreportage to law enforcement. For sexual orientation offenses, victim gender and race/ethnicity differences were predictive of the base rates of crime reportage as well. These findings are considered in terms of a group-risk hypothesis, encountered by multiple outgroup persons, that influences help-seeking behavior and ingroup identity.

  7. Competitive effects and instruments of power sector reforms. International reform concepts blockade structures, risk distribution. A political economy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liebchen, Armin

    2014-01-01

    Power sectors with weak or inadequate competition structures are the rule, despite numerous attempts at reform. But can afford modern economies this defect for a long time? Why can the implementation of competition are blocked so effectively? The author studied international reform experiences and opens up interesting insights that can also reflect on problems of the German energy turnaround: The difficulty of timing and coordination of the reform components, the development of resistance levels of individual interest groups, breach of contract as a rational alternative, causes unwanted price effects, shifting interest situations of major stakeholders, change dynamics impending regulatory risks, pending financing risks, stranded cost-conflict situations for power stations disconnected from the grid and facilities and instruments of a political and regulatory risk management for reforms. With numerous examples, background analyzes and instruments to reform analysis, this book is aimed at investors, policy planners and analysts. [de

  8. Basal metabolic rate and risk-taking behaviour in birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, A P

    2009-12-01

    Basal metabolic rate (BMR) constitutes the minimal metabolic rate in the zone of thermo-neutrality, where heat production is not elevated for temperature regulation. BMR thus constitutes the minimum metabolic rate that is required for maintenance. Interspecific variation in BMR in birds is correlated with food habits, climate, habitat, flight activity, torpor, altitude, and migration, although the selective forces involved in the evolution of these presumed adaptations are not always obvious. I suggest that BMR constitutes the minimum level required for maintenance, and that variation in this minimum level reflects the fitness costs and benefits in terms of ability to respond to selective agents like predators, implying that an elevated level of BMR is a cost of wariness towards predators. This hypothesis predicts a positive relationship between BMR and measures of risk taking such as flight initiation distance (FID) of individuals approached by a potential predator. Consistent with this suggestion, I show in a comparative analysis of 76 bird species that species with higher BMR for their body mass have longer FID when approached by a potential predator. This effect was independent of potentially confounding variables and similarity among species due to common phylogenetic descent. These results imply that BMR is positively related to risk-taking behaviour, and that predation constitutes a neglected factor in the evolution of BMR.

  9. Multifractality and value-at-risk forecasting of exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batten, Jonathan A.; Kinateder, Harald; Wagner, Niklas

    2014-05-01

    This paper addresses market risk prediction for high frequency foreign exchange rates under nonlinear risk scaling behaviour. We use a modified version of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) where trading time is represented by the series of volume ticks. Our dataset consists of 138,418 5-min round-the-clock observations of EUR/USD spot quotes and trading ticks during the period January 5, 2006 to December 31, 2007. Considering fat-tails, long-range dependence as well as scale inconsistency with the MMAR, we derive out-of-sample value-at-risk (VaR) forecasts and compare our approach to historical simulation as well as a benchmark GARCH(1,1) location-scale VaR model. Our findings underline that the multifractal properties in EUR/USD returns in fact have notable risk management implications. The MMAR approach is a parsimonious model which produces admissible VaR forecasts at the 12-h forecast horizon. For the daily horizon, the MMAR outperforms both alternatives based on conditional as well as unconditional coverage statistics.

  10. Celebrating Risk: The Politics of Self-Branding, Transgression & Resistance in Public Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BLAKE POLAND

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Persons 'branded' as dangerous to the public's health often try to hide their status (as smokers, as HIV positive, etc. Yet, a small but growing subgroup has re-appropriated stigma symbols and voluntarily branded themselves as 'marked' individuals, rebellious, transgressive and refusing to be shamed by their status. In this article we examine voluntary branding as acts of resistance, paying particular attention to bodily practices that disrupt dominant aesthetic and moral/political sensibilities. We draw on our research and observations in the realms of smoking and bareback sex to illustrate and address broader issues of branding the self, aesthetics and the politics of resistance, surveillance, and transgression. Drawing on the work of Goffman, Bourdieu and Foucault, we examine the interpenetration of class, physical and social capital, and unequal social relations. While these works are often used to celebrate resistance, we argue, following Fiske, that it should not be romanticized as inherently liberating.

  11. Worst-Case Portfolio Optimization under Stochastic Interest Rate Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Engler

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate a portfolio optimization problem under the threat of a market crash, where the interest rate of the bond is modeled as a Vasicek process, which is correlated with the stock price process. We adopt a non-probabilistic worst-case approach for the height and time of the market crash. On a given time horizon [0; T], we then maximize the investor’s expected utility of terminal wealth in the worst-case crash scenario. Our main result is an explicit characterization of the worst-case optimal portfolio strategy for the class of HARA (hyperbolic absolute risk aversion utility functions.

  12. Risks to health from radiation at low dose rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gentner, N.E.; Osborne, R.V.

    1997-01-01

    Our focus is on whether, using a balance-of-evidence approach, it is possible to say that at a low enough dose, or at a sufficiently low dose rate, radiation risk reduces to zero in a population. We conclude that insufficient evidence exists at present to support such a conclusion. In part this reflects statistical limitations at low doses, and in part (although mechanisms unquestionably exist to protect us against much of the damage induced by ionizing radiation) the biological heterogeneity of human populations, which means these mechanisms do not act in all members of the population at all times. If it is going to be possible to demonstrate that low doses are less dangerous than we presently assume, the evidence, paradoxically, will likely come from studies of higher dose and dose rate scenarios than are encountered occupationally. (author)

  13. Modelling Counterparty Credit Risk in Czech Interest Rate Swaps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lenka Křivánková

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the Basel Committee’s estimate, three quarters of counterparty credit risk losses during the financial crisis in 2008 originate from credit valuation adjustment’s losses and not from actual defaults. Therefore, from 2015, the Third Basel Accord (EU, 2013a and (EU, 2013b instructed banks to calculate the capital requirement for the risk of credit valuation adjustment (CVA. Banks are trying to model CVA to hold the prescribed standards and also reach the lowest possible impact on their profit. In this paper, we try to model CVA using methods that are in compliance with the prescribed standards and also achieve the smallest possible impact on the bank’s earnings. To do so, a data set of interest rate swaps from 2015 is used. The interest rate term structure is simulated using the Hull-White one-factor model and Monte Carlo methods. Then, the probability of default for each counterparty is constructed. A safe level of CVA is reached in spite of the calculated the CVA achieving a lower level than CVA previously used by the bank. This allows a reduction of capital requirements for banks.

  14. Regulating genetically modified food. Policy trajectories, political culture, and risk perceptions in the U.S., Canada, and EU.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohlers, Anton E

    2010-09-01

    This paper examines whether national differences in political culture add an explanatory dimension to the formulation of policy in the area of biotechnology, especially with respect to genetically modified food. The analysis links the formulation of protective regulatory policies governing genetically modified food to both country and region-specific differences in uncertainty tolerance levels and risk perceptions in the United States, Canada, and European Union. Based on polling data and document analysis, the findings illustrate that these differences matter. Following a mostly opportunistic risk perception within an environment of high tolerance for uncertainty, policymakers in the United States and Canada modified existing regulatory frameworks that govern genetically modified food in their respective countries. In contrast, the mostly cautious perception of new food technologies and low tolerance for uncertainty among European Union member states has contributed to the creation of elaborate and stringent regulatory policies governing genetically modified food.

  15. Interest rate risk measurement in Brazilian sovereign markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caio Ibsen Rodrigues de Almeida

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Fixed income emerging markets are an interesting investment alternative. Measuring market risks is mandatory in order to avoid unexpected huge losses. The most used market risk measure is the Value at Risk, based on the profit-loss probability distribution of the portfolio under consideration. Estimating this probability distribution requires the prior estimation of the probability distribution of term structures of interest rates. An interesting possibility is to estimate term structures using a decomposition of the spread function into a linear combination of Legendre polynomials. Numerical examples from the Brazilian sovereign fixed income international market illustrate the practical use of the methodology.Os mercados emergentes de renda fixa são alternativas interessantes para investimentos. Devido ao elevado nível de incerteza existente em tais mercados, a mensuração dos riscos de mercado de uma carteira de investimentos é fundamental para que se evite um nível elevado de perdas. Uma das medidas de risco de mercado mais utilizadas é o Value at Risk, baseado na distribuição de probabilidades de perdas-ganhos da carteira sob análise. A estimação desta distribuição requer, no entanto, a estimação prévia da distribuição de pro-babilidades das variações da estrutura a termo da taxa de juros. Uma possibilidade interessante para a estimação de tal distribuição é efetuar uma decomposição da função de spread da estrutura a termo em uma combinação linear de Polinômios de Legendre. Exemplos numéricos do mercado internacional de títulos soberanos brasileiros são apresentados para ilustrar o uso prático desta nova metodologia.

  16. Asset backed securities : risks, ratings and quantitative modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jönsson, B.H.B.; Schoutens, W.

    2009-01-01

    Asset backed securities (ABSs) are structured finance products backed by pools of assets and are created through a securitisation process. The risks in asset backed securities, such as, credit risk, prepayment risk, market risks, operational risk, and legal risks, are directly connected with the

  17. Shadows on Israeli Gas Success Story: a Political and Geopolitical Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boncourt, Maite de

    2015-12-01

    In Israel, both the regional geopolitical context and domestic politics play an important role in the development of the offshore gas fields. The country has been a forerunner in the discovery of the Eastern Mediterranean basin, thanks to the dedication of the private sector and the support of the State. Today, the entire region is under the spotlights for its energy potential, but the development of the gas resources in Israel still has to deal with internal challenges, related notably to the governance of the sector and the stabilization of the legislative framework to attract investments. (author)

  18. WHY THE SUDDEN CHANGE OF THE POLITICAL REGIME IS DETERMINING RISK IN ECONOMY AND SOCIETY?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Lucian MEHEDINTI

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this article the authors aim to gather an in-depth understanding of the evolution of manking throughout the history and its political regimes, and in the same time are analizing and determining the components of the social function that exercised a great influence on the stability and dynamics of the production and consumption, pointing out that any social organization that wants to remain rational should have as a primary objective the happiness of the people, that so called,“general happiness”, that could only be achieved through education, culture, raising people's moral and intellectual knowledge. Since any political system does not seek the general good, but the one of some persons or a specific group of people, there is only very little communion between them and the people or is entirely missing and for these reasons their reign won’t be long, because the people are always wanting a political change. This "social problem" occurred because of some significant social movements, socialist doctrines whose effects still persist in present times. The efforts of the profound thinkers and mankind throughout the history, with all the positive developments did not materialize in achieving a society in which wealth is equitably distributed, where the contributions of the people in getting them is equally shared that could satisfy the requirements and the needs of the majority members of the society. In all the transformations and society changes or the political regime of the state, the human being represented the base, with its unlimited evolution and thinking, and all of these were achieved in time and were given by a certain social environment. The human being can not be separated from its social environment. He is born to live in the society, but the freedom can not be unlimited of course. The history has shown that all the hasty attempts suffered the same fate and the only sustainable progress made by the people were those who came out

  19. Orphans and political instability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breuning, Marijke; Ishiyama, John

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates the security implications of growing orphan populations, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Little has been written about the security implications of this especially vulnerable group of children. Are growing orphan populations associated with increases in political instability as has been suggested? Using data from several sources, we employ regression analysis to test whether Sub-Saharan African countries with larger proportions of orphans and those with increasing orphan populations experience higher rates of political instability. We find that the increase in the orphan population is related to an increasing incidence of civil conflict, but do not find a similar relationship for the proportion of orphans. In addition, we find that the causes of orphanhood matter. We conclude that increases in orphan populations (rather than simple proportions) are destabilizing. We suggest possible avenues for mediating the security risks posed by growing orphan populations.

  20. The Effect of Political Stability on Public Education Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nir, Adam E.; Kafle, Bhojraj Sharma

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to provide a preliminary analysis to evaluate the implications of political stability for educational quality, evident in the survival rate measure. Design/methodology/approach: Secondary analyses were conducted for data drawn from the Political Risk Service Report, the World Bank Report, the United Nations…

  1. Politics and scientific expertise: Scientists, risk perception, and nuclear waste policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barke, R.P.; Jenkins-Smith, H.C.

    1993-01-01

    To study the homogeneity and influences on scientists' perspectives of environmental risks, the authors have examined similarities and differences in risk perceptions, particularly regarding nuclear wastes, and policy preferences among 1011 scientists and engineers. Significant differences (p<0.05) were found in the patterns of beliefs among scientists from different fields of research. In contrast to physicists, chemists, and engineers, life scientists tend to: (a) perceive the greatest risks from nuclear energy and nuclear waste management; (b) perceive higher levels of overall environmental risk; (c) strongly oppose imposing risks on unconsenting individuals; and (d) prefer stronger requirements for environmental management. On some issues related to priorities among public problems and calls for government action, there are significant variations among life scientists or physical scientists. It was also found that-independently of field of research-perceptions of risk and its correlates are significantly associated with the type of institution in which the scientist is employed. Scientists in universities or state and local governments tend to see the risks of nuclear energy and wastes as greater than scientists who work as business consultants, for federal organizations, or for private research laboratories. Significant differences also are found in priority given to environmental risks, the perceived proximity of environmental disaster, willingness to impose risks on an unconsenting population, and the necessity of accepting risks and sacrifices. 33 refs., 3 figs., 9 tabs

  2. Alarming of exchange rate crisis: A risk management approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da Zhao

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Recently, with increasing volatility of foreign exchange rate, risk management becomes more and more important not only for multinational companies and individuals but also for central governments. This paper attempts to build an econometrics model so as to forecast and manage risks in foreign exchange market, especially during the eve of turbulent periods. By following McNeil and Frey’s (2000 two stage approach called conditional EVT to estimate dynamic VaR commonly used in stock and insurance markets, we extend it by applying a more general asymmetric ARMA-GARCH model to analyze daily foreign exchange dollar-denominated trading data from four countries of different development levels across Asia and Europe for a period of more than 10 years from January 03, 2005 to May 29, 2015, which is certainly representative of global markets. Conventionally, different kinds of backtesting methods are implemented ultimately to evaluate how well the model behaves. Inspiringly, test results show that by taking several specific characteristics (including fat-tails, asymmetry and long-range dependence of the foreign exchange market return data into consideration, the violation ratio of out-of-sample data can be forecasted very well for both fixed and flexible foreign exchange regimes. Moreover, all of the violations are evenly distributed along the whole period which indicates another favorable property of our model. Meanwhile, we find evidence of asymmetry volatility in all of the studied foreign exchange markets even though the magnitudes of the most of them are weak

  3. Politics and Poetics of the Event: from silencing to a risk of voicing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alda Regina Tognini Romaguera

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Our interest is to think of politics and poetics of images and words in writings traversed by the experiences (workshops, soirées, exhibitions... that have taken place in the extension and outreach project Reading and Creation Workshops with Words and Images developed by Fabulografias - ALB Center for Reading, throughout the years 2013 and 2014. How to extract the significance from words and photographs and make them vibrate, make them multiple? Launch the event in gatherings, thoughts and poetics and photographic compositions. One of the challenges of a plane of collective experimentation around the minority becoming, winds that blow in the meetings of the Collective Group Fabulografias. Among other things: doing away with the discursive orders and making life resonate from within a tense silence that drifts nearby. Compose an education that differs, blowing from within the potencies of art and the philosophy of Gilles Deleuze.

  4. Injury rates and risk factors in competitive professional boxing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zazryn, Tsharni R; McCrory, Paul R; Cameron, Peter A

    2009-01-01

    To determine injury rates and risk factors for injury in a cohort of professional boxers. Retrospective cohort design reporting on data collected for a fight statistics database maintained by the Professional Boxing and Combat Sports Board of Victoria, Australia. Data were extracted for the years January 1997 through June 2005. Victoria, Australia. 545 professional boxers (age, 18 to 43 years) who participated in a total of 907 fights over the study period. Independent variables under investigation included age, gender, weight, bout exposure, and location of the bout (within or outside of the State of Victoria). Physician-reported acute boxing injuries occurring during bouts of any region or nature. 214 injuries were sustained over the 8.5 years, corresponding to an injury rate of 23.6 per 100 professional fights. The majority of these injuries were lacerations to the head and face. An increasing age and an increasing number of fights were both significant predictors of injury. Injury reduction strategies for professional boxing might include restrictions of eligibility to fight based on age and boxing bout exposure. Future research using prospective cohort designs and standardized injury definitions are needed to confirm these results. Greater mechanistic detail and more complete data entry are necessary to ensure that optimal injury prevention strategies can be developed and implemented. Upon confirmation of the results of this study, the Professional Boxing and Combat Sports Board of Victoria may consider different criteria upon which to sanction a fight.

  5. Should I be worried? Citizens’ experiences and the risk politics of cell site deployment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Graaff, M.B.

    2016-01-01

    How do we deal with the risks of new technology? This research takes the mobile phone cell sites as case. The exponential growth of the wireless telecommunications network, materialized in the construction of cell sites, is raising concerns about its health risks for decades. Where do citizens’

  6. The Internet's Effect on Women's Coauthoring Rates and Academic Job Market Decisions: The Case of Political Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Daniel M.; Butler, Richard J.

    2011-01-01

    The late 1990s saw the introduction and spread of the Internet and email. For social scientists, these technologies lowered communication costs and made inter-department collaboration much easier. Using women in political science as a case study, we show that this change has disproportionately affected women in two ways. First, women have…

  7. 75 FR 9257 - SBA Lender Risk Rating System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    ... Liquidation Rate; 3. Gross Delinquency Rate; 4. Gross Past-Due Rate; 5. Six (6) Month Net Flow Indicator; 6.... The statistical analysis performed showed that incorporating the Portfolio Size/Age component improved...) Month Delinquency Rate; 3. Gross Delinquency Rate; 4. Gross Past-Due Rate; 5. Average Small Business...

  8. Gambling disorder: estimated prevalence rates and risk factors in Macao.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Anise M S; Lai, Mark H C; Tong, Kwok-Kit

    2014-12-01

    An excessive, problematic gambling pattern has been regarded as a mental disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM) for more than 3 decades (American Psychiatric Association [APA], 1980). In this study, its latest prevalence in Macao (one of very few cities with legalized gambling in China and the Far East) was estimated with 2 major changes in the diagnostic criteria, suggested by the 5th edition of DSM (APA, 2013): (a) removing the "Illegal Act" criterion, and (b) lowering the threshold for diagnosis. A random, representative sample of 1,018 Macao residents was surveyed with a phone poll design in January 2013. After the 2 changes were adopted, the present study showed that the estimated prevalence rate of gambling disorder was 2.1% of the Macao adult population. Moreover, the present findings also provided empirical support to the application of these 2 recommended changes when assessing symptoms of gambling disorder among Chinese community adults. Personal risk factors of gambling disorder, namely being male, having low education, a preference for casino gambling, as well as high materialism, were identified.

  9. 12 CFR 652.15 - Interest rate risk management and requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate risk management and requirements... AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORPORATION FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS Investment Management § 652.15 Interest rate risk... (direction, controls, and supervision) to the interest rate risk management program and must be knowledgeable...

  10. Politics of risk-taking: Welfare state reform in advanced democracies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vis, B.

    2010-01-01

    How much and in which direction have the welfare states among the Western democracies changed over the past decades? Moreover, under which conditions have governments enacted these changes? Based on insights from prospect theory, a psychological theory of choice under risk, Vis demonstrates ably

  11. Problem-Based Teaching in International Management: A Political/Economic Risk Assessment Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Paula S.; White, Marion M.; Zisk, Daniel S.; Cavazos, David E.

    2013-01-01

    This article draws from the current literature to examine problem-based learning (PBL) as a management education tool, and provides an example of how to incorporate PBL into an undergraduate international management course. Also included are an explanation of, and specific guidelines for, a PBL exercise focused on the analysis of "country risk"…

  12. Risk, risk conflicts, sub-politics and social and environmental accounting and accountability in Scottish salmon farming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Georgakopoulos, G.; Thomson, I.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose To offer a theoretical analysis, inspired by contemporary research into risk, of the social and environmental accounting processes observed in an empirical study on Scottish salmon farming. Methodology / Approach This paper used a Grounded Theory approach. Empirical evidence was collected on

  13. The double burden of neoliberalism? Noncommunicable disease policies and the global political economy of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasgow, Sara; Schrecker, Ted

    2016-05-01

    The growing prevalence of NCDs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is now recognized as one of the major global health policy issues of the early 21st century. Current official approaches reflect ambivalence about how health policy should approach the social determinants of health identified by the WHO Commission on the topic that released its report in 2008, and in particular the role of macro-scale economic and social processes. Authoritative framing of options for NCD prevention in advance of the September, 2011 UN high-level meeting on NCDs arguably relied on a selective reading of the scientific (including social scientific) evidence, and foregrounded a limited number of risk factors defined in terms of individual behavior: tobacco use, unhealthy diet, alcohol (ab)use and physical inactivity. The effect was to reproduce at a transnational level the individualization of responsibility for health that characterizes most health promotion initiatives in high-income countries, ignoring both the limited control that many people have over their exposure to these risk factors and the contribution of macro-scale processes like trade liberalization and the marketing activities of transnational corporations to the global burden of NCDs. An alternative perspective focuses on "the inequitable distribution of power, money, and resources" described by the WHO Commission, and the ways in which policies that address those inequities can avoid unintentional incorporation of neoliberal constructions of risk and responsibility. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. Environmental policies, politics, and community risk perception: case study of community contamination in Casper, Wyoming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tajik, Mansoureh; Gottlieb, Karen; Lowndes, Nita; Stewart, Gloria

    2007-01-01

    We identify and explain factors that affected a community's perception of risk due to extensive industrial contamination and people's distrust of government agencies regarding the environmental investigations. Intrinsic bounded case study methodology was used to conduct research about extensive environmental contaminations due to activities of an oil refinery in North Casper, Wyoming, and the citizens' response. Data were collected from multiple sources that included public testimonies, observations, public hearings and meetings minutes, newspaper articles, archived records obtained from federal and state environmental and health agencies, as well as industry records obtained through Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests. The overarching theme that emerged was lack of trust due to several critical events and factors such as no response or delay in response time to community concerns, lack of transparency, perceived cover up, vague and fragmented communication by government and state officials, perception of pro-industry stance, and perceived unfair treatment. People's perception of environmental risks and their willingness to accept official explanations and outcomes of environmental investigations are strongly affected by their direct experiences with government agencies and the evidence of influence the powerful industries exert over relevant investigations. The government cannot successfully address public and community concerns about environmental health impacts of contaminations and in turn the public perception of risk unless it adopts and implements policies, procedures, and protocols that are clear, timely, transparent, and free from industry influence.

  15. The Occupy Central (Umbrella) movement and mental health distress in the Hong Kong general public: political movements and concerns as potential structural risk factors of population mental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Joseph T F; Kim, Yoona; Wu, Anise M S; Wang, Zixin; Huang, Bishan; Mo, Phoenix K H

    2017-05-01

    Political tension, as expressed by mass movements such as the Occupy Central movement (2014) in Hong Kong, is a potential but understudied structural factor of population mental health. A random population-based telephone survey anonymously interviewed 344 Hong Kong Chinese adults aged 18-65 years during the 2 weeks since the termination date of the 2-month-long Occupy Central movement (15/12/2014). Linear regression models were fit using mental distress (depression, anxiety and negative mood) and self-perceived changes in mood/sleeping quality as dependent variables. Prevalence of participation in the movement was 10.5% (self), 17.7% (family members/relatives), and 34.0% (peers); 8.5% had participated for ≥2 days. Young age, but not participation, was associated with mental distress. In adjusted analysis, three types of responses to the movement (worry about safety, negative emotional responses to media reports, and conflicts with peers about the movement) and emotional responses to local political situations were significantly associated with all/some of the dependent variables related to mental distress. The variable on emotions toward local political situations was correlated with the three responses to the movement; it fully mediated the associations between such responses and mental distress. Many citizens participated in the movement, which was led by youths and might have increased the general public's mental distress. Negative personal responses to the movement and emotions toward political situations were potential risk factors. As the political tension would last and political pessimism is globally found, politics may have become a regular and persistent structural risk factor negatively affecting population mental health.

  16. Panama disease in banana and neoliberal governance: towards a political ecology of risk

    OpenAIRE

    Cruz, de la, Jaye

    2017-01-01

    The emergence of Panama disease Tropical Race 4 (Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. cubense) or TR4 – a fungal disease in banana that is considered by horticulture experts as not only one of the most destructive diseases in the world (Ploetz 1994) but one with no on-hand socio-cultural or chemical method to control it satisfactorily (Ploetz 2015) – has generated conversations, dialogue, inquiry and at times controversy, on how this risk is to be managed. The onslaught of Tropical Race 1 (TR1) in the 19...

  17. 77 FR 5155 - Interest Rate Risk Policy and Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-02

    ... directors and management; appropriate IRR measurement and monitoring systems; good internal controls; and... Systems B. Risk Measurement Methods C. Components of IRR Measurement Methods V. Internal Controls VI... risk management and a program to effectively implement that policy, as part of their asset liability...

  18. Essays on long-term mortality and interest rate risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Kort, J.P.

    2017-01-01

    This dissertation comprises a study of long-term risks which play a major role in actuarial science. In Part I we analyse long-term mortality risk and its impact on consumption and investment decisions of economic agents, while Part II focuses on the mathematical modelling of long-term interest

  19. Carbon recovery rates following different wildfire risk mitigation treatments

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. Hurteau; M. North

    2010-01-01

    Sequestered forest carbon can provide a climate change mitigation benefit, but in dry temperate forests, wildfire poses a reversal risk to carbon offset projects. Reducing wildfire risk requires a reduction in and redistribution of carbon stocks, the benefit of which is only realized when wildfire occurs. To estimate the time needed to recover carbon removed and...

  20. Political, social and technical risks in the last stages of disease eradication campaigns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitty, Christopher J M

    2015-09-01

    Eradication of a disease is one of the greatest gifts any generation can give to subsequent ones, but most attempts have failed. The biggest challenges occur in the final stages of eradication and elimination campaigns. These include falling public support as a disease becomes less common; the emergence of groups who do not support eradication; spiralling costs; and the evolution of drug, vaccine or insecticide resistance. Mass campaigns become less effective as the disease fragments and modelling becomes less reliable. Optimism bias is the biggest risk to any eradication campaign and the long endgame must be planned for from the beginning. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. The politics of risk in the Philippines: comparing state and NGO perceptions of disaster management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bankoff, Greg; Hilhorst, Dorothea

    2009-10-01

    It is now generally appreciated that what constitutes vulnerability to one person is not necessarily perceived as such by the next. Different actors 'see' disasters as different types of events and as a result they prepare for, manage and record them in very different ways. This paper explores what different perceptions of vulnerability mean in terms of the understanding and practices of two significant sets of actors and stakeholders involved in disaster preparedness and management in the Philippines: the state and NGOs. Approaches to disaster are not just a function of people's perceptions of disaster risk but also of their understanding of the prevailing social order and social relations. Despite a shared vocabulary-which increasingly presents disasters as processes rather than events, takes a proactive rather than a reactive approach, and favours the inclusion of stakeholders rather than solely relying on technocratic management-different realities continue to make for different responses.

  2. 12 CFR 615.5180 - Interest rate risk management by banks-general.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate risk management by banks-general... FISCAL AFFAIRS, LOAN POLICIES AND OPERATIONS, AND FUNDING OPERATIONS Risk Assessment and Management § 615.5180 Interest rate risk management by banks—general. The board of directors of each Farm Credit Bank...

  3. 12 CFR 563.176 - Interest-rate-risk-management procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest-rate-risk-management procedures. 563... ASSOCIATIONS-OPERATIONS Financial Management Policies § 563.176 Interest-rate-risk-management procedures... association's management of that risk. (b) The board of directors shall formerly adopt a policy for the...

  4. 12 CFR 615.5181 - Bank interest rate risk management program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Bank interest rate risk management program. 615... FISCAL AFFAIRS, LOAN POLICIES AND OPERATIONS, AND FUNDING OPERATIONS Risk Assessment and Management § 615.5181 Bank interest rate risk management program. (a) The board of directors of each Farm Credit Bank...

  5. Agreement in cardiovascular risk rating based on anthropometric parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dantas, Endilly Maria da Silva; Pinto, Cristiane Jordânia; Freitas, Rodrigo Pegado de Abreu; Medeiros, Anna Cecília Queiroz de

    2015-01-01

    To investigate the agreement in evaluation of risk of developing cardiovascular diseases based on anthropometric parameters in young adults. The study included 406 students, measuring weight, height, and waist and neck circumferences. Waist-to-height ratio and the conicity index. The kappa coefficient was used to assess agreement in risk classification for cardiovascular diseases. The positive and negative specific agreement values were calculated as well. The Pearson chi-square (χ"2) test was used to assess associations between categorical variables (p<0.05). The majority of the parameters assessed (44%) showed slight (k=0.21 to 0.40) and/or poor agreement (k<0.20), with low values of negative specific agreement. The best agreement was observed between waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio both for the general population (k=0.88) and between sexes (k=0.93 to 0.86). There was a significant association (p<0.001) between the risk of cardiovascular diseases and females when using waist circumference and conicity index, and with males when using neck circumference. This resulted in a wide variation in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk (5.5%-36.5%), depending on the parameter and the sex that was assessed. The results indicate variability in agreement in assessing risk for cardiovascular diseases, based on anthropometric parameters, and which also seems to be influenced by sex. Further studies in the Brazilian population are required to better understand this issue

  6. Agreement in cardiovascular risk rating based on anthropometric parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dantas, Endilly Maria da Silva; Pinto, Cristiane Jordânia; Freitas, Rodrigo Pegado de Abreu; Medeiros, Anna Cecília Queiroz de [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, RN (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    To investigate the agreement in evaluation of risk of developing cardiovascular diseases based on anthropometric parameters in young adults. The study included 406 students, measuring weight, height, and waist and neck circumferences. Waist-to-height ratio and the conicity index. The kappa coefficient was used to assess agreement in risk classification for cardiovascular diseases. The positive and negative specific agreement values were calculated as well. The Pearson chi-square (χ{sup 2}) test was used to assess associations between categorical variables (p<0.05). The majority of the parameters assessed (44%) showed slight (k=0.21 to 0.40) and/or poor agreement (k<0.20), with low values of negative specific agreement. The best agreement was observed between waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio both for the general population (k=0.88) and between sexes (k=0.93 to 0.86). There was a significant association (p<0.001) between the risk of cardiovascular diseases and females when using waist circumference and conicity index, and with males when using neck circumference. This resulted in a wide variation in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk (5.5%-36.5%), depending on the parameter and the sex that was assessed. The results indicate variability in agreement in assessing risk for cardiovascular diseases, based on anthropometric parameters, and which also seems to be influenced by sex. Further studies in the Brazilian population are required to better understand this issue.

  7. Risk of solid cancer in low dose-rate radiation epidemiological studies and the dose-rate effectiveness factor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shore, Roy; Walsh, Linda; Azizova, Tamara; Rühm, Werner

    2017-10-01

    Estimated radiation risks used for radiation protection purposes have been based primarily on the Life Span Study (LSS) of atomic bomb survivors who received brief exposures at high dose rates, many with high doses. Information is needed regarding radiation risks from low dose-rate (LDR) exposures to low linear-energy-transfer (low-LET) radiation. We conducted a meta-analysis of LDR epidemiologic studies that provide dose-response estimates of total solid cancer risk in adulthood in comparison to corresponding LSS risks, in order to estimate a dose rate effectiveness factor (DREF). We identified 22 LDR studies with dose-response risk estimates for solid cancer after minimizing information overlap. For each study, a parallel risk estimate was derived from the LSS risk model using matching values for sex, mean ages at first exposure and attained age, targeted cancer types, and accounting for type of dosimetric assessment. For each LDR study, a ratio of the excess relative risk per Gy (ERR Gy -1 ) to the matching LSS ERR risk estimate (LDR/LSS) was calculated, and a meta-analysis of the risk ratios was conducted. The reciprocal of the resultant risk ratio provided an estimate of the DREF. The meta-analysis showed a LDR/LSS risk ratio of 0.36 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.14, 0.57) for the 19 studies of solid cancer mortality and 0.33 (95% CI 0.13, 0.54) when three cohorts with only incidence data also were added, implying a DREF with values around 3, but statistically compatible with 2. However, the analyses were highly dominated by the Mayak worker study. When the Mayak study was excluded the LDR/LSS risk ratios increased: 1.12 (95% CI 0.40, 1.84) for mortality and 0.54 (95% CI 0.09, 0.99) for mortality + incidence, implying a lower DREF in the range of 1-2. Meta-analyses that included only cohorts in which the mean dose was LDR data provide direct evidence regarding risk from exposures at low dose rates as an important complement to the LSS risk estimates used

  8. Bank Credit Risk Management and Rating Migration Analysis on the Business Cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitris Gavalas

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Credit risk measurement remains a critical field of top priority in banking finance, directly implicated in the recent global financial crisis. This paper examines the dynamic linkages between credit risk migration due to rating shifts and prevailing macroeconomic conditions, reflected in alternative business cycle states. An innovative empirical methodology applies to bank internal rating data, under different economic scenarios and investigates the implications of credit risk quality shifts for risk rating transition matrices. The empirical findings are useful and critical for banks to align to Basel guidelines in relation to core capital requirements and risk-weighted assets in the underlying loan portfolio.

  9. Medicine and ionizing rays: a help sheet in analysing risks in high rate curietherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauron, C.

    2009-01-01

    This document proposes a synthesis of useful knowledge for radioprotection in the case of high rate curietherapy. Several aspects are considered: the concerned personnel, the course of treatment procedures, the hazards, the identification of the risk associated with ionizing radiation, the risk assessment and the determination of exposure levels, the strategy to control the risks (reduction of risks, technical measures concerning the installation or the personnel, teaching and information, prevention and medical monitoring), and risk control assessment

  10. Medicine and ionizing rays: a help sheet in analysing risks in pulsed rate curietherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauron, C.

    2009-01-01

    This document proposes a synthesis of useful knowledge for radioprotection in the case of pulsed rate curietherapy. Several aspects are considered: the concerned personnel, the course of treatment procedures, the hazards, the identification of the risk associated with ionizing radiation, the risk assessment and the determination of exposure levels, the strategy to control the risks (reduction of risks, technical measures concerning the installation or the personnel, teaching and information, prevention and medical monitoring), and risk control assessment

  11. Political innovations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Eva

    2017-01-01

    are mainly interested in assessing and promoting innovations in public service delivery, but have paid little or no attention to the need for innovations in polity, politics and policy. This article develops a research agenda for studying innovations in political institutions, in the political process...... and in policy outputs. It proposes a number of research themes related to political innovations that call for scholarly attention, and identifies push and pull factors influencing the likelihood that these themes will be addressed in future research....

  12. Hospital ownership: a risk factor for nosocomial infection rates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröder, C; Behnke, M; Geffers, C; Gastmeier, P

    2018-03-26

    In some countries, a relationship between hospital ownership and the occurrence of healthcare-associated infection (HCAI) rates has been described. To investigate the association between hospital ownership and occurrence of HCAI in Germany. Five different components of the German national nosocomial infection surveillance system were analysed with regard to the influence of hospital ownership in the period 2014-2016. Endpoints included ventilator-associated pneumonia, central-venous-catheter-associated bloodstream infections, urinary-catheter-associated urinary tract infections, surgical site infections (SSI) following hip prosthesis and colon surgery, meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), Clostridium difficile infections (CDI) and hand rub consumption per 1000 patient-days. Three hospital ownership types (public, non-profit and private) were analysed using univariate and multi-variate methods. The distribution of hospitals according to the three ownership types was similar in all components. In total, 661 intensive care units (ICUs), 149 departments performing colon procedures, and 349 departments performing hip prosthesis were included. In addition, 568 hospitals provided their MRSA rates and 236 provided their CDI rates, and 1833 ICUs and 12,934 non-ICUs provided their hand rub consumption data. In general, the differences between the hospital types were rather small and not significant for the ICUs. In the multi-variate analysis, public hospitals had a lower SSI rate following hip prosthesis (odds ratio 0.80, 95% confidence interval 0.65-0.99). Hospital ownership was not found to have a major influence on the incidence of HCAI in Germany. Copyright © 2018 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Moral politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rapp, Carolin; Traunmüller, Richard; Freitag, Markus

    2014-01-01

    This article combines the research strands of moral politics and political behavior by focusing on the effect of individual and contextual religiosity on individual vote decisions in popular initiatives and public referenda concerning morally charged issues. We rely on a total of 13 surveys with 1...... American research on moral politics, direct democracies, and the public role of religion....

  14. Office Politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storm, Paula; Kelly, Robert; deVries, Susann

    2008-01-01

    People and organizations are inherently political. Library workplace environments have zones of tension and dynamics just like any corporation, often leading to the formation of political camps. These different cliques influence productivity and work-related issues and, at worst, give meetings the feel of the Camp David negotiations. Politics are…

  15. Vaccination rates among the general adult population and high-risk groups in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathy Annunziata

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In order to adequately assess the effectiveness of vaccination in helping to control vaccine-preventable infectious disease, it is important to identify the adherence and uptake of risk-based recommendations. METHODS: The current project includes data from five consecutive datasets of the National Health and Wellness Survey (NHWS: 2007 through 2011. The NHWS is an annual, Internet-based health questionnaire, administered to a nationwide sample of adults (aged 18 or older which included items on vaccination history as well as high-risk group status. Vaccination rates and characteristics of vaccinees were reported descriptively. Logistic regressions were conducted to predict vaccination behavior from sociodemographics and risk-related variables. RESULTS: The influenza vaccination rate for all adults 18 years and older has increased significantly from 28.0% to 36.2% from 2007 to 2011 (ps<.05. Compared with those not at high risk (25.1%, all high-risk groups were vaccinated at a higher rate, from 36.8% (pregnant women to 69.7% (those with renal/kidney disease; however, considerable variability among high-risk groups was observed. Vaccination rates among high-risk groups for other vaccines varied considerably though all were below 50%, with the exception of immunocompromised respondents (57.5% for the hepatitis B vaccine and 52.5% for the pneumococcal vaccine and the elderly (50.4% for the pneumococcal. Multiple risk factors were associated with increased rate of vaccination for most vaccines. Significant racial/ethnic differences with influenza, hepatitis, and herpes zoster vaccination rates were also observed (ps<.05. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of influenza vaccination have increased over time. Rates varied by high-risk status, demographics, and vaccine. There was a pattern of modest vaccination rate increases for individuals with multiple risk factors. However, there were relatively low rates of vaccination for most risk-based recommendations

  16. Stochastic Discount Factor Approach to International Risk-Sharing: Evidence from Fixed Exchange Rate Episodes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hadzi-Vaskov, M.; Kool, C.J.M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents evidence of the stochastic discount factor approach to international risk-sharing applied to fixed exchange rate regimes. We calculate risk-sharing indices for two episodes of fixed or very rigid exchange rates: the Eurozone before and after the introduction of the Euro, and

  17. Study the rate of fertility and risk factors of schizophrenia in Najaf, Iraq

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study is designed to investigate the main risk factors, which increased the incidence of schizophrenia and the rate of fertility in patients measuring sex hormones (testosterone and estrogen) and prolactin hormone. The aim of study was to evaluate the fertility rate and risk factors of schizophrenia. Blood samples were ...

  18. Risk of Interest Rates at the Level of Commercial Banks in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sbârcea Ioana Raluca

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The banking system in Romania is a banking system under development, subject to fluctuations that exist on the market more than on more developed banking systems, fluctuations that can generate losses for banks if they are not properly managed. The losses that may be generated by these fluctuations, known as market risk, refer to the significant fluctuations in three indicators, namely the interest rate, the exchange rate and the asset price. In this article, I will analyse the interest rate risk from a conceptual point of view and the indicators that mitigate this risk. The analysis also contains a study of this risk among commercial banks in the system to highlight the level of risk and possible effects of its manifestation. I calculated and analysed the interest rate risk indicators, individually for the first three banks in the system, but also to comparatively, in order to highlight the existing differences.

  19. Redistributive Politics in a Political Union

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Citi, Manuele; Justesen, Mogens Kamp

    One of the main functions of centralized budgets in federal and political unions is to act as an equalizing mechanism to support economic cohesion. This is also the case with the European Union’s budget, which operates as a redistributive mechanism that counteracts the cross-national and cross...... remarkably over the last decades. In this paper, we investigate how and why the net fiscal position of each member state towards the rest of the EU changes over time. Using a novel panel dataset (1979-2014), we study how some key national and EU-level political and economic variables affect the EU...... find that the political orientation of national governments does not per se influence redistributive politics with in the EU. However, when the unemployment rate is rising, right-wing governments are able to extract significantly larger budgetary benefits....

  20. Space, politics, and the political

    OpenAIRE

    dikec , mustafa

    1987-01-01

    International audience; Introduction Geography and politics'', Gottmann wrote in 1980, ``have long been in search of each other'' (page 11). Debates in the literature suggest not only that they have found each other, but also that the encounter has instigated, notably in the last decade or so, a body of literature seeking to think space politically, and to think politics spatially. This is not to suggest that previous work on space was apolitical, nor to suggest that previous work on politics...

  1. 'When you use the term 'long term', how long is that term'. Risk, Exclusion, and the Politics of Knowledge Production in Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste Management Policy Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stanley, Anna

    2006-01-01

    Risk operates within Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste (NFW) management policy making as a heuristic for knowledge production about its effects which reconciles the knowledge of the nuclear industry with the outcomes of the NFW management process. In so doing it marginalizes the present and historical experiences of Aboriginal peoples with the nuclear industry, and removes from view the ways in which they have been implicated in the geography and political economy of the nuclear industry. Risk is a discursive form that protects a particular group's claims about the effects of NFW by providing it a universalizing epistemological structure with which to obscure its connection to context. Further risk discourse provides the nuclear industry with a conceptual vocabulary that deliberately casts all competing knowledge as perceptions, values, or as an object of inquiry. The arguments of Aboriginal peoples about the residual effects of radiation in their lands which hosted nuclear activities, such as uranium mining and disposal, have no representation in how the discourse of risk defines and represents knowledge, and thus no purchase in the policy debate. As a result the challenge they present to the nuclear industry's claims are contained. The arrangements which permit the unloading of the negative effects of nuclear power generation onto Aboriginal peoples are thus reproduced (both materially and conceptually), but not shown, by the policy making process and likely, its outcome. In order to raise critical questions about the democratic abilities of risk, this paper has examined the role of 'risk' in Canadian NFW policy making. I have shown how when the politics of knowledge production within the philosophy of risk is analyzed, and the use and role of the notion of risk are interrogated, difficult questions are posed for the democratic potential of risk. I have suggested, through an analysis of the NWMO's representations of Aboriginal content in their process, that in this

  2. Performing Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Troy R. E. Paddock

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Walter Benjamin’s observation that fascism turns politics into aesthetics is, by now, a well-worn idea. This article argues that Benjamin’s critique of politics can apply just as much to the modern democratic politics of the United States. Borrowing from Benjamin, Jürgen Habermas, and Carl Schmitt, this article suggests that modern political discourse in the United States does not follow the classical liberal ideal of rational discourse in the marketplace of ideas within the public sphere. Instead, contemporary politics has become spectacle where images and slogans replace thought and debate in a 24/7 news cycle and political infotainment programs. The result is that progressives and conservatives have their own political “ecospheres” which enable them to have their own perspective reinforced, and debate is replaced by straw man arguments and personal attacks.

  3. Low Savings Rates in the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas: The Role of the Political Instability-Income Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abu Nurudeen

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper employs PCSE, OLS and TSLS with random effects to investigate the impact of the political instabilityincome interaction on savings in ECOWAS countries during the period 1996-2012. The empirical evidence illustrates that higher political stability is associated with higher savings and income levels moderate the adverse effect of political instability on savings, indicating that the impact of political instability on savings is higher in low income ECOWAS countries, but lesser at higher levels of income. The paper recommends the promotion of political stability via increases in incomes to raise savings in the ECOWAS region.

  4. Transitional rates, risk and the Ontario wholesale power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rothman, M.

    2001-01-01

    Navigant Consulting is a large investor-owned management consulting firm specializing in energy-based and other networked and regulated industries across Canada. The company works with clients to create delivery and protect shareholder value in the face of uncertainty and change. This presentation discussed the issue of price volatility in competitive electricity markets. The points to keep in mind for pricing in competitive power markets is that: (1) electricity should be generated simultaneously with use, (2) rates in administered markets are average over some time period, (3) competitive pool markets do not average costs, (4) in competitive pool markets, prices are set in very short (hourly or less) intervals, (5) prices in competitive markets are more volatile than in administered markets for both economic and market structure reasons, and (6) the degree of volatility and price levels can change quickly. The Ontario power market was also discussed with reference to price volatility in Ontario and what this means for electricity customers. tabs., figs

  5. Risk management under a two-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

    OpenAIRE

    Manuel Moreno

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents several applications to interest rate risk management based on a two-factor continuous-time model of the term structure of interest rates previously presented in Moreno (1996). This model assumes that default free discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and two factors, the long-term interest rate and the spread (difference between the long-term rate and the short-term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Several new measures of ``generalized duration" are p...

  6. Political elite of modern Russia: crisis of formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michail A. Burda

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Author analyzes the practice of functioning of political elite of modern Russia, the phenomenon of high rating of one of its actors and the crisis of alternative political leaders. The article pays special attention to the existing, in accordance with the Constitution of the Russian Federation, the breadth of presidential powers. Separately discusses the features of current and in General closed for the controlled companies to the private process of formation of the Russian political elite. According to the author, this process takes the form of selection of candidates by a narrow circle of senior officials for subjective reasons, in connection with which the political elite even more segregated from the controlled companies and rising to a new, unattainable level of elitism. Referring to the existing practice of the presidential elections in Russia in the early 90-ies of XX century to the present focuses on the stagnation of the political opposition, lack of political competition among major political parties and their low electoral support in view of the existing political absenteeism. In the article the author considers the historical context of the formation of elite groups and privileged minorities, and draws attention to features of "technocratic parliamentarism", which is inherent in States with a parliamentary form of government and does not implement at present in Russia, with its prevailing system of governance by public authorities. In conclusion, the special attention of author is turned on the existing in society political absenteeism, latent protest potential and, as a consequence, the request for the renewal of political elites, particularly in the framework of the upcoming presidential elections of the Russian Federation in 2018, the participation of new candidates. According to the author of the inventory of such social demand companies will allow to stop the risks enhance the destructive part of economic and regional political

  7. [Political psychology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resch, Mária; Bella, Tamás

    2013-04-21

    In Hungary one can mostly find references to the psychological processes of politics in the writings of publicists, public opinion pollsters, philosophers, social psychologists, and political analysts. It would be still important if not only legal scientists focusing on political institutions or sociologist-politologists concentrating on social structures could analyse the psychological aspects of political processes; but one could also do so through the application of the methods of political psychology. The authors review the history of political psychology, its position vis-à-vis other fields of science and the essential interfaces through which this field of science, which is still to be discovered in Hungary, connects to other social sciences. As far as its methodology comprising psycho-biographical analyses, questionnaire-based queries, cognitive mapping of interviews and statements are concerned, it is identical with the psychiatric tools of medical sciences. In the next part of this paper, the focus is shifted to the essence and contents of political psychology. Group dynamics properties, voters' attitudes, leaders' personalities and the behavioural patterns demonstrated by them in different political situations, authoritativeness, games, and charisma are all essential components of political psychology, which mostly analyses psychological-psychiatric processes and also involves medical sciences by relying on cognitive and behavioural sciences. This paper describes political psychology, which is basically part of social sciences, still, being an interdisciplinary science, has several ties to medical sciences through psychological and psychiatric aspects.

  8. The Exposure of Mortgage Borrowers to Interest Rate Risk, Income Risk and House Price Risk – Evidence from Swiss Loan Application Data

    OpenAIRE

    Guin, Benjamin; Brown, Martin

    2015-01-01

    We study the exposure of mortgage borrowers in Switzerland to interest rate, income and house price risks and examine how the households’ choice of risky mortgages is related to individual interest rate expectations and risk-aversion. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of household mortgage applications from September 2012 until January 2014. Our assessment of risk exposure among mortgage borrowers in Switzerland is highly sensitive to the underlying assumptions on mortgage costs, hou...

  9. Discount rates in risk versus money and money versus money tradeoffs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberini, Anna; Chiabai, Aline

    2007-04-01

    We use data from a survey of residents of five Italian cities conducted in late spring 2004 to estimate the discount rates implicit in (1) money versus future risk reductions and (2) money versus money tradeoffs. We find that the mean personal discount rate is 0.3-1.7% in (1) and 8.7% in (2). The latter is lower than the discount rates estimated in comparable situations in many recent studies, greater than market interest rates in Italy at the time, and exhibits modest variation with age and gender. The discount rate implicit in money versus risk tradeoffs is within the range of estimates from studies in the United States and Europe, and does not depend on observable individual characteristics. We use split samples to investigate whether a completely abstract risk reduction - one where the risk reduction delivery has been stripped of all specifics, so that respondents should focus on the risks without being distracted by details - results in WTP and discount figures comparable to those from an identified delivery mechanism (a medical test). We find that while WTP for an immediate risk reduction is 42-73% higher with the abstract risk reduction, the discount rate in the money versus risk tradeoffs and the variance of the error term in the WTP equation are the same across the two variants of the questionnaire.

  10. Cash Flow and Discount Rate Risk in Up and Down Markets: What is actually priced?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botshekan, M.; Kraeussl, R.G.W.; Lucas, A.

    2012-01-01

    We test whether asymmetric preferences for losses versus gains affect the prices of cash flow versus discount rate risk. We construct a return decomposition distinguishing cash flow and discount rate betas in up and down markets. Using U.S. data, we find that downside cash flow and discount rate

  11. [C-section rate in low-risk women: a useful indicator to compare hospitals attending deliveries with different risks].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Librero, Julián; Peiró, Salvador; Belda, Ana; Calabuig, Julia

    2014-01-01

    the C-section rate has been criticized as a performance indicator for not considering that different hospitals manage deliveries with diverse risks. In this work we explore the characteristics of a new indicator restricted to low C-section risk deliveries. retrospective cohort of all births (n=214,611) in all public hospitals during 2005-2010 in the Valencia Region, Spain (source: minimum basic dataset). A low-risk subpopulation consisting of women under-35, no history of c-section, between 37 and 41 gestational weeks, and with a single fetus, with cephalic presentation and normal weight (2500-3999 g) was constructed. We analyzed variability in the new indicator, its correlation with the crude indicator and, using multilevel logistic regression models, the presence of residual risks. a total of 117 589 births (58.4% of the whole deliveries) were identified as low C-section risk. The c-section rate in these women was 11.9% (24.4% for all deliveries) ranging between hospitals from 7.0% to 28.9%. The c-section rate in low-risk and total deliveries correlated strongly (r=0.88). The remaining risks in the population of low risk did not alter the hospital effect on the c-section rate. the percentage of C-section in low risk women include a high volume of deliveries, correlated with the crude indicator and residual risks are not differentially influenced by hospitals, being a useful indicator for monitoring the quality of obstetric care in the National Health System.

  12. Information Acquisition and Excessive Risk: Impact of Policy Rate and Market Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volha Audzei

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Excessive risk-taking of financial agents drew a lot of attention in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Low interest rates and subdued market volatility during the Great Moderation are sometimes blamed for stimulating risk-taking and leading to the recent financial crisis. In recent years, with many central banks around the world conducting the policy of low interest rates and mitigating market risks, it has been debatable whether this policy contributes to the building up of another credit boom. This paper addresses this issue by focusing on information acquisition by the financial agents. We build a theoretical model which captures excessive risk taking in response to changes in policy rate and market volatility. This excessive risk takes the form of an increased risk appetite of the agents, but also of decreased incentives to acquire information about risky assets. As a result, with market risk being reduced, agents tend to acquire more risk in their portfolios then they would with the higher market risk. The same forces increase portfolio risk when the safe interest rate is falling. The robustness of the results is considered with different learning rules.

  13. The impact of item order on ratings of cancer risk perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Kathryn L; Shelby, Rebecca A; Schwartz, Marc D; Ackerman, Josh; LaSalle, V Holland; Gelmann, Edward P; McGuire, Colleen

    2002-07-01

    Although perceived risk is central to most theories of health behavior, there is little consensus on its measurement with regard to item wording, response set, or the number of items to include. In a methodological assessment of perceived risk, we assessed the impact of changing the order of three commonly used perceived risk items: quantitative personal risk, quantitative population risk, and comparative risk. Participants were 432 men and women enrolled in an ancillary study of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Three groups of consecutively enrolled participants responded to the three items in one of three question orders. Results indicated that item order was related to the perceived risk ratings of both ovarian (P Perceptions of risk were significantly lower when the comparative rating was made first. The findings suggest that compelling participants to consider their own risk relative to the risk of others results in lower ratings of perceived risk. Although the use of multiple items may provide more information than when only a single method is used, different conclusions may be reached depending on the context in which an item is assessed.

  14. Political Campaigns

    OpenAIRE

    Lilleker, Darren

    2017-01-01

    Political campaigns are orchestrated attempts by political organizations to garner public support through persuasive communication in order to influence public policy in their favor. This broad definition encapsulates all forms of campaigns from those of neighborhood organizations seeking to influence local politicians to the campaigns of political parties and candidates who seek election to office in order to shape policy themselves. In pluralist democracies, campaigns are crucial for repres...

  15. Political CSR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeppesen, Søren; Morsing, Mette

    We engage a discussion of political CSR in SMEs in an African context. Based on critical observations on Western MNC CSR action in emerging economies that holds counterproductive implications for social development, political economists have argued that business profit far more than society...... development in local African communities. Our findings extend political CSR research by directing attention to how the corporate influence in developing economies does not only emerge from MNCs but is also established and retained by SMEs CSR work....

  16. Corporate interest rate risk management with derivatives in Australia: empirical results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Augusto Ferreira Carneiro

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Financial and insurance theories explain that large widely-held corporations manage corporate risks if doing so is costective to reduce frictional costs such as taxes, agency costs and financial distress costs. A large number of previous empirical studies, most in the U.S., have tested the hypotheses underlying corporate risk management with financial derivative instruments. In order to quantify corporate hedge demand, most previous studies have used the ratio of principal notional amount of derivatives to company size, although they recognize that company size is not an appropriate proxy for financial risk. This paper analyzes the interest-rate-risk hedge demand by Australian companies, measured through the ratio of principal notional amount of interest rate derivatives to interest-rate-riskbearing liabilities. Modern panel data methods are used, with two panel data sets from 1998 to 2003 (1102 and 465 observations, respectively. Detailed information about interest-rate-risk exposures was available after manual data collection from financial annual reports, which was only possible due to specific reporting requirements in Australian accounting standards. Regarding the analysis of the extent of hedge, our measurement of interest-rate-risk exposures generates some significant results di erent from those found in previous studies. For example, this study shows that total leverage (total debt ratio is not significantly important to interest-rate-risk hedge demand and that, instead, this demand is related to the specific risk exposure in the interest bearing part of the firms liabilities. This study finds significant relations of interest-rate-risk hedge to company size, floating-interest-rate debt ratio, annual log returns, and company industry type (utilities and non-banking financial institutions.

  17. 12 CFR 615.5182 - Interest rate risk management by associations and other Farm Credit System institutions other...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate risk management by associations... OPERATIONS, AND FUNDING OPERATIONS Risk Assessment and Management § 615.5182 Interest rate risk management by... shall comply with the requirements of §§ 615.5180 and 615.5181. The interest rate risk management...

  18. The association between social networks and self-rated risk of HIV ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Elizabeth J. Lyimo

    2014-03-18

    Mar 18, 2014 ... Bonding networks were defined as social groupings of students participating in activities ... bridging social networks and self-rated HIV risk behavior. ...... book for Theory and Research for the Sociology of Education, 241–258.

  19. Political psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Susanna; Johnson, Kate M; Beall, Erica; Meindl, Peter; Smith, Benjamin; Graham, Jesse

    2014-07-01

    Political psychology is a dynamic field of research that offers a unique blend of approaches and methods in the social and cognitive sciences. Political psychologists explore the interactions between macrolevel political structures and microlevel factors such as decision-making processes, motivations, and perceptions. In this article, we provide a broad overview of the field, beginning with a brief history of political psychology research and a summary of the primary methodological approaches in the field. We then give a more detailed account of research on ideology and social justice, two topics experiencing a resurgence of interest in current political psychology. Finally, we cover research on political persuasion and voting behavior. By summarizing these major areas of political psychology research, we hope to highlight the wide variety of theoretical and methodological approaches of cognitive scientists working at the intersection of psychology and political science. WIREs Cogn Sci 2014, 5:373-385. doi: 10.1002/wcs.1293 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Explore the Application of Financial Engineering in the Management of Exchange Rate Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the background where the domestic enterprises commonly have a weak protection consciousness against the exchange rate risk, this article makes a deep analysis based on the definition of exchange rate risk and its cause. By comparison of the traditional management method of exchange rate risk with another one based on financial engineering tools, it also deeply analyzes the method to use the financial engineering technology in the management of exchange rate risk, and concludes the primary purpose of exchange rate risk management is for hedging. This article proposes an optimal analysis method in two aspects, namely the minimum risk and maximum efficiency, for the forward-based optimal hedging, and proposes an optimal analysis method of dynamic hedging for the optimal hedging of option-based tools. Based on the description of the application of financial tools in foreign exchange futures, forward contract, currency exchange and foreign exchange option, it makes an empirical analysis on the management of foreign exchange risk by taking an assumed T company as the carrier and based on the trading tools of forward foreign exchange and currency option, which describes the operation procedure of financial tools in a more direct way and proves the efficiency of the optimal analysis method of this article.

  1. Concordance of Motion Sensor and Clinician-Rated Fall Risk Scores in Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elledge, Julie

    2017-12-01

    As the older adult population in the United States continues to grow, developing reliable, valid, and practical methods for identifying fall risk is a high priority. Falls are prevalent in older adults and contribute significantly to morbidity and mortality rates and rising health costs. Identifying at-risk older adults and intervening in a timely manner can reduce falls. Conventional fall risk assessment tools require a health professional trained in the use of each tool for administration and interpretation. Motion sensor technology, which uses three-dimensional cameras to measure patient movements, is promising for assessing older adults' fall risk because it could eliminate or reduce the need for provider oversight. The purpose of this study was to assess the concordance of fall risk scores as measured by a motion sensor device, the OmniVR Virtual Rehabilitation System, with clinician-rated fall risk scores in older adult outpatients undergoing physical rehabilitation. Three standardized fall risk assessments were administered by the OmniVR and by a clinician. Validity of the OmniVR was assessed by measuring the concordance between the two assessment methods. Stability of the OmniVR fall risk ratings was assessed by measuring test-retest reliability. The OmniVR scores showed high concordance with the clinician-rated scores and high stability over time, demonstrating comparability with provider measurements.

  2. 'Grounded' Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Garbi

    2012-01-01

    play within one particular neighbourhood: Nørrebro in the Danish capital, Copenhagen. The article introduces the concept of grounded politics to analyse how groups of Muslim immigrants in Nørrebro use the space, relationships and history of the neighbourhood for identity political statements....... The article further describes how national political debates over the Muslim presence in Denmark affect identity political manifestations within Nørrebro. By using Duncan Bell’s concept of mythscape (Bell, 2003), the article shows how some political actors idealize Nørrebro’s past to contest the present...... ethnic and religious diversity of the neighbourhood and, further, to frame what they see as the deterioration of genuine Danish identity....

  3. [Relationship between performance rating and risk of low back pain in manufacturing line workers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higuchi, Yoshiyuki; Funahashi, Atsushi; Izumi, Hiroyuki; Kumashinro, Masaharu

    2012-03-01

    It is possible that the performance rating of line workers is affected by the risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders that are included in their work more so than by the actual takt time. To investigate whether performance rating relates to the risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders, we analyzed a dataset obtained from a self-administered questionnaire answered by assembly line workers (n=1579). As a result, performance rating had a significant association with unsuitable work environments, poor working postures and handling of heavy loads. The workers who reported the fastest rating had a higher exposure than others to the risk factors for occupational low back pain. The results of our study support the effectiveness of performance rating as an index of work burden.

  4. Political consumerism, young citizens and the Internet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ward, J.; de Vreese, C.

    2011-01-01

    Evidence suggests that purchasing products for ethical or political reasons−also known as political consumerism−may be gaining in importance. With (young) people’s declining voting rates and a general disinterest in political institutions, scholars and political elites alike are speculating on the

  5. Heart rate variability based on risk stratification for type 2 diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva-E-Oliveira, Julia; Amélio, Pâmela Marina; Abranches, Isabela Lopes Laguardia; Damasceno, Dênis Derly; Furtado, Fabianne

    2017-01-01

    To evaluate heart rate variability among adults with different risk levels for type 2 diabetes mellitus. The risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus was assessed in 130 participants (89 females) based on the questionnaire Finnish Diabetes Risk Score and was classified as low risk (n=26), slightly elevated risk (n=41), moderate risk (n=27) and high risk (n=32). To measure heart rate variability, a heart-rate monitor Polar S810i® was employed to obtain RR series for each individual, at rest, for 5 minutes, followed by analysis of linear and nonlinear indexes. The groups at higher risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus had significantly lower linear and nonlinear heart rate variability indexes. The individuals at high risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus have lower heart rate variability. Avaliar a variabilidade da frequência cardíaca em adultos com diferentes níveis de risco para diabetes mellitus tipo 2. O grau de risco para diabetes mellitus tipo 2 de 130 participantes (41 homens) foi avaliado pelo questionário Finnish Diabetes Risk Score. Os participantes foram classificados em baixo risco (n=26), risco levemente elevado (n=41), risco moderado (n=27) e alto risco (n=32). Para medir a variabilidade da frequência cardíaca, utilizou-se o frequencímetro Polar S810i® para obter séries de intervalo RR para cada indivíduo, em repouso, durante 5 minutos; posteriormente, realizou-se análise por meio de índices lineares e não-lineares. O grupo com maior risco para diabetes mellitus tipo 2 teve uma diminuição significante nos índices lineares e não-lineares da variabilidade da frequência cardíaca. Os resultados apontam que indivíduos com risco alto para diabetes mellitus tipo 2 tem menor variabilidade da frequência cardíaca. To evaluate heart rate variability among adults with different risk levels for type 2 diabetes mellitus. The risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus was assessed in 130 participants (89 females) based on the questionnaire Finnish Diabetes Risk Score

  6. The impact of risk management on internal and sustainable growth rate: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Reza Vakili Fard

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Measuring the relative risk of firms has been an open discussion among researchers. There are many studies on learning how leverage may influence on growth of the firms. This article reviews the relationship between risk management, internal and sustainable growth of accepted companies in Tehran stock exchange. The survey considers three types of risks including operating, financial and compound and investigates their relationships with internal growth rate as well as sustainable growth rate. Using some regression techniques, the study has determined negative and meaningful relationships between different types of leverage on side and internal as well as sustainable growth on the other side.

  7. Risk of inflammatory bowel disease according to self-rated health, pregnancy course, and pregnancy complications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harpsøe, Maria C; Jørgensen, Kristian Tore; Frisch, Morten

    2013-01-01

    Poor self-rated health (SRH) has been connected to immunological changes, and pregnancy complications have been suggested in the etiology of autoimmune diseases including inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We evaluated the impact of self-rated pre-pregnancy health and pregnancy course, hyperemesis......, gestational hypertension, and preeclampsia on risk of IBD....

  8. Community rating in the absence of risk equalisation: lessons from the Irish private health insurance market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Brian; Shinnick, Edward

    2013-04-01

    Ireland's private health insurance market operates on the basis of community rating, alongside open enrolment and lifetime cover. A risk equalisation scheme was introduced in 2003 to bolster community rating. However, in July 2008 the Irish Supreme Court set aside this scheme, on the basis of the interpretation of community rating in Irish legislation. This decision has significant implications for the Irish private health insurance market. This paper reviews the development of the market, focusing in particular on community rating. The breakdown of community rating in a market with multiple insurers with differing risk profiles is discussed. Applying this to the Irish market, it can be seen that the Irish Supreme Court judgment has significant implications for the application of community rating. Specifically, while community rating operates within plans, it no longer operates across the market, leading to high-risk lives paying more, on average, than low-risk lives. It has also led to greater opportunities for insurers to engage in market segmentation. This may have relevance for the design and operation of other community rated markets.

  9. Political News and Political Consciousness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schertges, Claudia

    2007-01-01

    This article deals with mass media in modern democratic societies, using the example of Israeli news reports in German television (TV) news. Central to this interest are processes of mediating politics: political socialisation and education; that is to say, empowering citizens via TV news to participate in democratic processes. The article…

  10. PERFORMANCE EVALUATION AND RISK AVERSION RATE FOR SEVERAL STOCK INDICES IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robiyanto Robiyanto

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available There are numerous stock indices in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Several of them are LQ-45, MBX, DBX, JII, SRI-KEHATI, PEFINDO-25, BISNIS-27, IDX-30 and KOMPAS-100. Unfortunately there are limi­ted researches which have been done to measure those indices performance specifically. The same condition also occurs on risk aversion level usage in Indonesia Stock Exchange, only few numbers of researches use this me­a­surement in the portfolio valuation. Based on that, this research measured the performance and risk aversion rate of those indices in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The results of this study were SRI-KEHATI becomes the best performer with the highest risk aversion rate, while Jakarta Islamic Index (JII produces the lowest positive per­formance with the lowest risk aversion rate. This finding shows that sharia stocks’ characters (i.e. usury free could give relieveness and convenience regardless its per­formance.

  11. 76 FR 79379 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk; Alternatives to Credit Ratings for Debt and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-21

    ..., China, France, Germany, Hong Kong SAR, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the..., the legislative history of section 939A focuses on the conflicts of interest of credit rating agencies... illustrates how CDS spreads and CRCs could be used together to assign specific risk-weighting factors. In...

  12. Intertemporal Risk-Return Trade-off in Foreign Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the intertemporal risk-return trade-off of foreign ex-change (FX) rates for ten currencies quoted against the USD. For each currency,we use three risk measures simultaneously that pertain to that currency; its re-alized volatility, its realized skewness, and its value-at-risk. We apply monthlyFX excess returns and monthly FX risk measures calculated from daily ob-servations. We find that there is a positive and signi…cant contemporaneousrisk-return trade-off for most currencies...

  13. Global financial crisis, banking crisis and first country risk in the viewpoint of domestic risk rating agencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr.Sc. Ingrid Shuli

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In a period of dire financial crisis, with which all countries seem to cope, it seemed interesting to analyse the assessment of the risk for our country, viewed from the vantage point of our domestic rating agencies, but also compared to assessments made to our country by international rating agencies, such as Moody’s rating agency, Standard & Poor rating agency, Fitch ratings agency etc. The objective of this study is to recognize indicators and factors affecting the risk assessment and rating of a country, and evaluate whether there has been an impact of the financial crisis faced by other countries in the rating given to Albanian by domestic and foreign agencies. We stopped at the history of earlier financial crisis development to understand bewtter what is happening in this financial crisis. We shall develop upon a wide existing literature, and a range of credible resources such as the IMF, the World Bank, the International Institute of Finance, Economic Intelligence Unit, and local official data sources, eg. The Bank of Albania and INSTAT.

  14. Evaluating the Impact of Prescription Fill Rates on Risk Stratification Model Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Hsien-Yen; Richards, Thomas M; Shermock, Kenneth M; Elder Dalpoas, Stacy; J Kan, Hong; Alexander, G Caleb; Weiner, Jonathan P; Kharrazi, Hadi

    2017-12-01

    Risk adjustment models are traditionally derived from administrative claims. Prescription fill rates-extracted by comparing electronic health record prescriptions and pharmacy claims fills-represent a novel measure of medication adherence and may improve the performance of risk adjustment models. We evaluated the impact of prescription fill rates on claims-based risk adjustment models in predicting both concurrent and prospective costs and utilization. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 43,097 primary care patients from HealthPartners network between 2011 and 2012. Diagnosis and/or pharmacy claims of 2011 were used to build 3 base models using the Johns Hopkins ACG system, in addition to demographics. Model performances were compared before and after adding 3 types of prescription fill rates: primary 0-7 days, primary 0-30 days, and overall. Overall fill rates utilized all ordered prescriptions from electronic health record while primary fill rates excluded refill orders. The overall, primary 0-7, and 0-30 days fill rates were 72.30%, 59.82%, and 67.33%. The fill rates were similar between sexes but varied across different medication classifications, whereas the youngest had the highest rate. Adding fill rates modestly improved the performance of all models in explaining medical costs (improving concurrent R by 1.15% to 2.07%), followed by total costs (0.58% to 1.43%), and pharmacy costs (0.07% to 0.65%). The impact was greater for concurrent costs compared with prospective costs. Base models without diagnosis information showed the highest improvement using prescription fill rates. Prescription fill rates can modestly enhance claims-based risk prediction models; however, population-level improvements in predicting utilization are limited.

  15. Community-based stillbirth rates and risk factors in rural Sarlahi, Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Anne C; Mullany, Luke C; Tielsch, James M; Katz, Joanne; Khatry, Subarna K; Leclerq, Steven C; Adhikari, Ramesh K; Darmstadt, Gary L

    2011-06-01

    To assess stillbirth rates and antepartum risk factors in rural Nepal. Data were collected prospectively during a cluster-randomized, community-based trial in Sarlahi, Nepal, from 2002 to 2006. Multivariate regression modeling was performed to calculate adjusted relative risk estimates. Among 24531 births, the stillbirth rate was 35.4 per 1000 births (term stillbirth rate 21.2 per 1000 births). Most births occurred at home without a skilled birth attendant. The majority (69%) of intrapartum maternal deaths resulted in stillbirth. The adjusted RR (aRR) of stillbirth was 2.74 among nulliparas and 1.47 among mothers with history of a child death. Mothers above the age of 30 years carried a 1.59-fold higher risk for stillbirth than mothers who were 20-24 years old. The stillbirth risk was lower among households where the father had any formal education (aRR 0.70). Land ownership (aRR 0.85) and Pahadi ethnicity (aRR 0.67; reference: Madhesi ethnicity) were associated with significantly lower risks of stillbirth. Stillbirth rates were high in rural Nepal, with the majority of stillbirths occurring at full-term gestation. Nulliparity, history of prior child loss, maternal age above 30 years, Madhesi ethnicity, and socioeconomic disadvantage were significant risk factors for stillbirth. Clinicaltrials.govNCT00 109616. Copyright © 2011 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Spiritual Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric Rambeau

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available According to Foucault, the uprising of the Iranian people in the seventies reveals how much the political force of Islam is due precisely to the fact that it is not principally located in the field of politics, but in that of ethics. Religion (Shiite Islam appears as the guarantee of real change in the very mode of existence. This spiritual politics is marginalized by Marxism, where it is understood as a discontinuity in relation to proper politics, given that the latter is necessarily linked to a strategic rationalization. By indicating, at this juncture of what is intolerable, the living source and the critical impulse of the Foucauldian ethics, this spiritual politics also leads to recognize in the concept of “subjectivation” a dimension that might escape the circle of freedom as determined by a total immanence to power. This conceptual possibility is highly present in the aporias of the Foucauldian concept of the “relation to oneself”, both as a first condition of governmentality and the ultimate point of resistance against any governmentality. It thus reveals the difficulties in relating political to ethical subjectivation.

  17. A statistical modeling approach to build expert credit risk rating systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waagepetersen, Rasmus

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an efficient method for extracting expert knowledge when building a credit risk rating system. Experts are asked to rate a sample of counterparty cases according to creditworthiness. Next, a statistical model is used to capture the relation between the characteristics...... of a counterparty and the expert rating. For any counterparty the model can identify the rating, which would be agreed upon by the majority of experts. Furthermore, the model can quantify the concurrence among experts. The approach is illustrated by a case study regarding the construction of an application score...

  18. Political symbols and political transitions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herrero de Miñón, Miguel

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Politics, Law and Psychology are fields that come together in the symbolic. This text takes evidence from those three areas to develop an analysis of political symbols and political transitions. The development of the analysis goes through three stages. The first succinctly describes the concept of transition and its meaning. The second closely examines the notion of the symbol, in terms of its definition, to explain aspects that allow us to understand it, characterise it and make its functions clear. Finally, from the author's experience as a witness and as an actor, I suggest three ways of understanding symbols in the processes of political transition: as symbols of change, as symbols of acknowledgment, and as symbols of support.

  19. Risk Management of Interest Rate Derivative Portfolios: A Stochastic Control Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantinos Kiriakopoulos

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we formulate the Risk Management Control problem in the interest rate area as a constrained stochastic portfolio optimization problem. The utility that we use can be any continuous function and based on the viscosity theory, the unique solution of the problem is guaranteed. The numerical approximation scheme is presented and applied using a single factor interest rate model. It is shown how the whole methodology works in practice, with the implementation of the algorithm for a specific interest rate portfolio. The recent financial crisis showed that risk management of derivatives portfolios especially in the interest rate market is crucial for the stability of the financial system. Modern Value at Risk (VAR and Conditional Value at Risk (CVAR techniques, although very useful and easy to understand, fail to grasp the need for on-line controlling and monitoring of derivatives portfolio. The portfolios should be designed in a way that risk and return be quantified and controlled in every possible state of the world. We hope that this methodology contributes towards this direction.

  20. Education and Political Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massialas, Byron G.

    1977-01-01

    Considers how education is related to politics with the focus on political socialization, political recruitment, i.e., the selection and training of political elites, and political integration or nation building of groups of people. (Author/RK)

  1. Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Qin; Davlasheridze, Meri

    2016-06-01

    Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Fracture risk assessed by Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) compared with fracture risk derived from population fracture rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Abrahamsen, Bo; Hermann, Anne Pernille

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the performance of the Swedish version of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)) without bone mass density (BMD) in a Danish population to examine the possibility of applying this version to Danish women. METHODS: From the Danish National Register of social security numbers, we...

  3. Binary Tree Pricing to Convertible Bonds with Credit Risk under Stochastic Interest Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianbo Huang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The convertible bonds usually have multiple additional provisions that make their pricing problem more difficult than straight bonds and options. This paper uses the binary tree method to model the finance market. As the underlying stock prices and the interest rates are important to the convertible bonds, we describe their dynamic processes by different binary tree. Moreover, we consider the influence of the credit risks on the convertible bonds that is described by the default rate and the recovery rate; then the two-factor binary tree model involving the credit risk is established. On the basis of the theoretical analysis, we make numerical simulation and get the pricing results when the stock prices are CRR model and the interest rates follow the constant volatility and the time-varying volatility, respectively. This model can be extended to other financial derivative instruments.

  4. Benchmarking Discount Rate in Natural Resource Damage Assessment with Risk Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Desheng; Chen, Shuzhen

    2017-08-01

    Benchmarking a credible discount rate is of crucial importance in natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) and restoration evaluation. This article integrates a holistic framework of NRDA with prevailing low discount rate theory, and proposes a discount rate benchmarking decision support system based on service-specific risk aversion. The proposed approach has the flexibility of choosing appropriate discount rates for gauging long-term services, as opposed to decisions based simply on duration. It improves injury identification in NRDA since potential damages and side-effects to ecosystem services are revealed within the service-specific framework. A real embankment case study demonstrates valid implementation of the method. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Economy and energy politic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, J.M.

    1992-01-01

    This book, divided into four parts, describes, first, energy consumption and national economy growth. In a second part, the irresistible ascent of coal, natural gas and petroleum international markets is studied. In the third part, energy politic is investigated: exchanges releasing, prices deregulation, contestation of power industry monopoly, energy national market and common energetic politic, single market concept. In the last part, global risks and world-wide regulations are given: demand, energy resources, technical changes, comparative evaluations between fossil, nuclear and renewable energies, environment, investments financing and international cooperation. 23 refs., 14 figs., 16 tabs

  6. Risk Factors Influencing Conception Rate in Holstein Heifers before Artificial Insemination or Embryo Transfer

    OpenAIRE

    M. Yusuf; T. Nakao; S. T. Long; S. Fujita

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to show the risk factors affecting the conception rate in Holstein heifers after synchronization of estrus. A total of 275 Holstein heifers housed in a free barn were used for the experiment. The herd was visited regularly at four week intervals for synchronization of estrus using Heatsynch and CIDR-Heatsynch protocols. A group of four to 14 animals, depending on the availability, were referred to the experiment at each visit. Estrus induction rates in the two ...

  7. Risk analysis of radioactive waste repository based on the time dependent hazard rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, S.H.; Cho, W.J.

    1984-01-01

    For the probabilistic risk analysis of the radioactive high level waste repository, the simplified method based on the time dependent hazard rate is proposed. The obtained results are compared with those from the time independent hazard rate. The estimation of the failure probability of the waste repository through this method gives more conservative results, especially when the half-life of nuclide is larger and retardation factors of nuclide is smaller. (Auth.)

  8. A NEW LOOK AT THE TRADE VOLUME EFFECTS OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE RISK

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Kai-Li; Barrett, Christopher B.

    2002-01-01

    This paper takes a new empirical look at the longstanding question of the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows by studying the case of Taiwan's exports to the United States from 1989-1998. In particular, we employ sectoral level, monthly data and a multivariate GARCH-M estimator with corrections for leptokurtic errors that is consistent with the core hypothesis that traders' forward contracting behavior might be affected by exchange rate risk. We find that real exch...

  9. Direct risk standardisation: a new method for comparing casemix adjusted event rates using complex models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholl, Jon; Jacques, Richard M; Campbell, Michael J

    2013-10-29

    Comparison of outcomes between populations or centres may be confounded by any casemix differences and standardisation is carried out to avoid this. However, when the casemix adjustment models are large and complex, direct standardisation has been described as "practically impossible", and indirect standardisation may lead to unfair comparisons. We propose a new method of directly standardising for risk rather than standardising for casemix which overcomes these problems. Using a casemix model which is the same model as would be used in indirect standardisation, the risk in individuals is estimated. Risk categories are defined, and event rates in each category for each centre to be compared are calculated. A weighted sum of the risk category specific event rates is then calculated. We have illustrated this method using data on 6 million admissions to 146 hospitals in England in 2007/8 and an existing model with over 5000 casemix combinations, and a second dataset of 18,668 adult emergency admissions to 9 centres in the UK and overseas and a published model with over 20,000 casemix combinations and a continuous covariate. Substantial differences between conventional directly casemix standardised rates and rates from direct risk standardisation (DRS) were found. Results based on DRS were very similar to Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMRs) obtained from indirect standardisation, with similar standard errors. Direct risk standardisation using our proposed method is as straightforward as using conventional direct or indirect standardisation, always enables fair comparisons of performance to be made, can use continuous casemix covariates, and was found in our examples to have similar standard errors to the SMR. It should be preferred when there is a risk that conventional direct or indirect standardisation will lead to unfair comparisons.

  10. Political ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strohm, H.

    1979-01-01

    Using facts and examples, this didactically structures textbook gives an insight into the extent and consequences of the damage to the environment, with the subjects - fundamentals of ecology; - population and food problems; - the energy problem; - economic growth; scarcity of resources, recycling; - ground, water, and air pollution, - city and traffic problems; - work protection and medical care; - political alternatives and 'soft technologies'. The analysis of the political and economic reasons is combined with social and technical alternatives from which demands to be made and measures to be taken can be derived for individuals, citizens' interest groups, political groups and trade unions. Teaching models intend to help teachers to work on specific problems of ecology. (orig.) [de

  11. Political priorities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ren, Jingzheng

    2016-01-01

    …THE POLITICAL LEADERS of the local government of Chongqing, China, vigorously promote a low-carbon economy and sustainable development to mitigate environmental pollution. Accordingly, research grants focused on this issue were supported by the government, and our group obtained a grant for a pr......…THE POLITICAL LEADERS of the local government of Chongqing, China, vigorously promote a low-carbon economy and sustainable development to mitigate environmental pollution. Accordingly, research grants focused on this issue were supported by the government, and our group obtained a grant...... for a project about industrial park planning and design.…In my view, political priorities based on correct decision-making and market requirements are beneficial for researchers....

  12. Predator Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary Louisa Cappelli

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Edward Abbey’s Desert Solitaire and Barbara Kingsolver’s Prodigal Summer urges readers to see coyotes as crucial members of the natural community whose predation is essential for the maintenance of biodiversity and ecological stability. Their cultural production provides a human story of ecocritical engagement for understanding the cascading effects of removing top predators from their ecosystems. By envisioning biocentric possibilities within place-based and scientific contexts, Edward Abbey and Barbara Kingsolver share a common theme of political ecology: political processes shape ecological conditions. A close reading of Edward Abbey’s Desert Solitaire and Barbara Kingsolver’s Prodigal Summer provides a literary entryway to connect research, arguments, and discourse across disciplines tasking readers to engage in political discussions of environmental sustainability and to consider viable solutions to preserve the ecological diversity of our predator populations and ecosystems.

  13. Rate and Risk Factors for Periprosthetic Joint Infection Among 36,494 Primary Total Hip Arthroplasties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triantafyllopoulos, Georgios K; Soranoglou, Vasileios G; Memtsoudis, Stavros G; Sculco, Thomas P; Poultsides, Lazaros A

    2018-04-01

    As periprosthetic joint infections (PJIs) can have tremendous health and socioeconomic implications, recognizing patients at risk before surgery is of great importance. Therefore, we sought to determine the rate of and risk factors for deep PJI in patients undergoing primary total hip arthroplasty (THA). Clinical characteristics of patients treated with primary THA between January 1999 and December 2013 were retrospectively reviewed. These included patient demographics, comorbidities (including the Charlson/Deyo comorbidity index), length of stay, primary diagnosis, total/allogeneic transfusion rate, and in-hospital complications, which were grouped into local and systemic (minor and major). We determined the overall deep PJI rate, as well as the rates for early-onset (occurring within 2 years after index surgery) and late-onset PJI (occurring more than 2 years after surgery). A Cox proportional hazards regression model was constructed to identify risk factors for developing deep PJI. Significance level was set at 0.05. A deep PJI developed in 154 of 36,494 primary THAs (0.4%) during the study period. Early onset PJI was found in 122 patients (0.3%), whereas late PJI occurred in 32 patients (0.1%). Obesity, coronary artery disease, and pulmonary hypertension were identified as independent risk factors for deep PJI after primary THA. The rate of deep PJIs of the hip is relatively low, with the majority occurring within 2 years after THA. If the optimization of modifiable risk factors before THA can reduce the rate of this complication remains unknown, but should be attempted as part of good practice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. How Internal Political Efficacy Translates Political Knowledge Into Political Participation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichert, Frank

    2016-01-01

    This study presents evidence for the mediation effect of political knowledge through political self-efficacy (i.e. internal political efficacy) in the prediction of political participation. It employs an action theoretic approach—by and large grounded on the Theory of Planned Behaviour—and uses data from the German Longitudinal Election Study to examine whether political knowledge has distinct direct effects on voting, conventional, and/or unconventional political participation. It argues that political knowledge raises internal political efficacy and thereby indirectly increases the chance that a citizen will participate in politics. The results of mediated multiple regression analyses yield evidence that political knowledge indeed translates into internal political efficacy, thus it affects political participation of various kinds indirectly. However, internal political efficacy and intentions to participate politically yield simultaneous direct effects only on conventional political participation. Sequentially mediated effects appear for voting and conventional political participation, with political knowledge being mediated by internal political efficacy and subsequently also by behavioural intentions. The mediation patterns for unconventional political participation are less clear though. The discussion accounts for restrictions of this study and points to questions for answer by future research. PMID:27298633

  15. How costly is it to ignore interest rate risk management in your 401(k) plan?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Bilsen, Servaas; Boelaars, I.; Bovenberg, Lans; Mehlkopf, Roel

    This paper explicitly derives and explores optimal interest rate risk management for lifecycle investors in DC pension plans, and compares our results to the portfolio mix chosen in practice by Target-Date Fund (TDF) managers. We show that investments in long-term bonds play an important role in the

  16. Mapping at-risk-of-poverty rates, household employment, and social spending

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vandenbroucke, F.; Diris, R.; Cantillon, B.; Vandenbroucke, F.

    2014-01-01

    As a first step stylized facts are presented concerning at-risk-of-poverty rates for the non-elderly population, household employment (a concept introduced in this chapter) and social spending in European welfare states. The chapter provides a first exploration of a central theme of the book, which

  17. The ruin probability of a discrete time risk model under constant interest rate with heavy tails

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tang, Q.

    2004-01-01

    This paper investigates the ultimate ruin probability of a discrete time risk model with a positive constant interest rate. Under the assumption that the gross loss of the company within one year is subexponentially distributed, a simple asymptotic relation for the ruin probability is derived and

  18. Hostility Ratings by Parents at Risk for Child Abuse: Impact of Chronic and Temporary Schema Activation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farc, Maria-Magdalena; Crouch, Julie L.; Skowronski, John J.; Milner, Joel S.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: Two studies examined whether accessibility of hostility-related schema influenced ratings of ambiguous child pictures. Based on the social information processing model of child physical abuse (CPA), it was expected that CPA risk status would serve as a proxy for chronic accessibility of hostile schema, while priming procedures were used…

  19. The association between social networks and self-rated risk of HIV ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study describes the social networks of secondary school students in Moshi Municipality, and their association with self-rated risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. A cross-sectional analytical study was conducted among 300 students aged 15–24 years in 5 secondary schools in Moshi, Tanzania.

  20. Genetic loci associated with heart rate variability and their effects on cardiac disease risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nolte, Ilja M; Munoz, M Loretto; Tragante, Vinicius; Amare, Azmeraw T; Jansen, Rick; Vaez, Ahmad; von der Heyde, Benedikt; Avery, Christy L; Bis, Joshua C; Dierckx, Bram; van Dongen, Jenny; Gogarten, Stephanie M; Goyette, Philippe; Hernesniemi, Jussi; Huikari, Ville; Hwang, Shih-Jen; Jaju, Deepali; Kerr, Kathleen F; Kluttig, Alexander; Krijthe, Bouwe P; Kumar, Jitender; van der Laan, Sander W; Lyytikäinen, Leo-Pekka; Maihofer, Adam X; Minassian, Arpi; van der Most, Peter J; Müller-Nurasyid, Martina; Nivard, Michel; Salvi, Erika; Stewart, James D; Thayer, Julian F; Verweij, Niek; Wong, Andrew; Zabaneh, Delilah; Zafarmand, Mohammad H; Abdellaoui, Abdel; Albarwani, Sulayma; Albert, Christine; Alonso, Alvaro; Ashar, Foram; Auvinen, Juha; Axelsson, Tomas; Baker, Dewleen G; de Bakker, Paul I W; Barcella, Matteo; Bayoumi, Riad; Bieringa, Rob J; Boomsma, Dorret; Boucher, Gabrielle; Britton, Annie R; Christophersen, Ingrid; Dietrich, Andrea; Ehret, George B; Ellinor, Patrick T; Eskola, Markku; Felix, Janine F; Floras, John S; Franco, Oscar H; Friberg, Peter; Gademan, Maaike G J; Geyer, Mark A; Giedraitis, Vilmantas; Hartman, Catharina A; Hemerich, Daiane; Hofman, Albert; Hottenga, Jouke-Jan; Huikuri, Heikki; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Jouven, Xavier; Junttila, Juhani; Juonala, Markus; Kiviniemi, Antti M; Kors, Jan A.; Kumari, Meena; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Laurie, Cathy C; Lefrandt, Joop D.; Li, Yong; Li, Yun; Liao, Duanping; Limacher, Marian C; Lin, Henry J; Lindgren, Cecilia M; Lubitz, Steven A; Mahajan, Anubha; McKnight, Barbara; Zu Schwabedissen, Henriette Meyer; Milaneschi, Yuri; Mononen, Nina; Morris, Andrew P; Nalls, Mike A; Navis, Gerjan; Neijts, Melanie; Nikus, Kjell; North, Kari E; O'Connor, Daniel T; Ormel, Johan; Perz, Siegfried; Peters, Annette; Psaty, Bruce M; Raitakari, Olli T; Risbrough, Victoria B; Sinner, Moritz F; Siscovick, David; Smit, Johannes H; Smith, Nicholas L; Soliman, Elsayed Z; Sotoodehnia, Nona; Staessen, Jan A; Stein, Phyllis K; Stilp, Adrienne M; Stolarz-Skrzypek, Katarzyna; Strauch, Konstantin; Sundström, Johan; Swenne, Cees A.; Syvänen, Ann-Christine; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Taylor, Kent D; Teumer, Alexander; Thornton, Timothy A; Tinker, Lesley E; Uitterlinden, André G; van Setten, Jessica; Voss, Andreas; Waldenberger, Melanie; Wilhelmsen, Kirk C; Willemsen, Gonneke; Wong, Quenna; Zhang, Zhu-Ming; Zonderman, Alan B; Cusi, Daniele; Evans, Michele K; Greiser, Halina K; van der Harst, Pim; Hassan, Mohammad; Ingelsson, Erik; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Kääb, Stefan; Kähönen, Mika; Kivimaki, Mika; Kooperberg, Charles; Kuh, Diana; Lehtimäki, Terho; Lind, Lars; Nievergelt, Caroline M; O'Donnell, Chris J; Oldehinkel, Albertine J; Penninx, Brenda; Reiner, Alexander P; Riese, Harriëtte; Van Roon, Arie M.; Rioux, John D; Rotter, Jerome I; Sofer, Tamar; Stricker, Bruno H; Tiemeier, Henning; Vrijkotte, Tanja G M; Asselbergs, Folkert W; Brundel, Bianca J J M; Heckbert, Susan R; Whitsel, Eric A; den Hoed, Marcel; Snieder, Harold; de Geus, Eco J C

    2017-01-01

    Reduced cardiac vagal control reflected in low heart rate variability (HRV) is associated with greater risks for cardiac morbidity and mortality. In two-stage meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies for three HRV traits in up to 53,174 individuals of European ancestry, we detect 17

  1. estimated glomerular filtration rate and risk of survival in acute stroke

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-03-03

    Mar 3, 2014 ... ESTIMATED GLOMERULAR FILTRATION RATE AND RISK OF SURVIVAL IN ACUTE STROKE. E. I. Okaka, MBBS, FWACP, F. A. Imarhiagbe, MBChB, FMCP, F. E. Odiase, MBBS, FMCP, O. C. A. Okoye, MBBS, FWACP,. Department of Medicine, University of Benin Teaching Hospital, Benin City, Nigeria.

  2. Education and the political

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korsgaard, Morten Timmermann

    This paper presents the controversial separation of education from the realm of the political as proposed by Hannah Arendt. For the sake of children and the future of the world, we must, according to Arendt, separate education from the political. If we do not do so, we not only expose our children...... to the blinding light of public existence before they are prepared for such exposure but also risk imposing on them our beliefs and prejudices, thus robbing them of the opportunity to create something new. By reading Arendt’s argumentation for the separation as developmental and temporal, Gert Biesta is able...... to claim that this separation is based on a psychological misunderstanding and that it renders children incapable of political action. I propose here that, by considering the separation instead to be a question of protection, not only can we heed the two essences of education that Arendt articulates...

  3. 1988 failure rate screening data for fusion reliability and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadwallader, L.C.; Piet, S.J.

    1988-01-01

    This document contains failure rate screening data for application to fusion components. The screening values are generally fission or aerospace industry failure rate estimates that can be extrapolated for use by fusion system designers, reliability engineers and risk analysts. Failure rate estimates for tritium-bearing systems, liquid metal-cooled systems, gas-cooled systems, water-cooled systems and containment systems are given. Preliminary system availability estimates and selected initiating event frequency estimates are presented. This first edition document is valuable to design and safety analysis for the Compact Ignition Tokamak and the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. 20 refs., 28 tabs

  4. Trends in state-level freight accident rates: An enhancement of risk factor development for RADTRAN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saricks, C.; Kvitek, T.

    1991-01-01

    Under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, the Department of Energy's Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is concerned with understanding and managing risk as it applies to the shipment of spent commercial nuclear reactor fuel. Understanding risk in relation to mode and geography may provide opportunities to minimize radiological and non-radiological risks of transportation. To enhance such an understanding, a set of state-or waterway-specific accident, fatality, and injury rates (expressed as rates per shipment kilometer) by transportation mode and highway administrative class was developed, using publicly-available data bases. Adjustments made to accommodate miscoded or incomplete information in accident data are described, as well as the procedures for estimating state-level flow data. Results indicate that the shipping conditions under which spent fuel is likely to be transported should be less subject to accidents than the ''average'' shipment within mode. 10 refs., 3 tabs

  5. Risk-free assets: Are they truly risk-free? A comparative study of South African rates and instruments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oosthuizen, A.V.

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Determining the price of a financial instrument is something that happens every day in the financial markets. Every price starts off with a spot price adjusted for interest until maturity of the particular instrument. The interest is usually described as risk-free interest. The price so determined is the most basic price that an investor is willing to pay if not risk is involved. Risk-free assets, then, are securities of which the future rates of return are known with certainty. An exceptional degree of confidence in the issuer of the security brings about this certainty. Risk-free assets are normally in the fixed income securities (capital markets investment category or in the liquid money market instruments such as treasury bills, category. This study attempts to determine whether the risk-free rates used by treasury managers and traders in South Africa to formulate their bond yield curves and which are used in valuation models, may be deemed risk-free. The study specifies certain criteria that an asset must satisfy in order to be used as a risk-free asset. Short term and long term South African instruments are compared to the US counterpart instruments, to gain an understanding of the South African instruments relative to the US ones. The behaviour of the risk-free instruments used in South Africa is also compared to the FTSE/JSE All Share Index and gold spot prices, which are perceived to be a risky asset classes. To gain some understanding of the behaviour of these instruments, analyses were done from different angles. The standard deviations of the daily percentage changes of the R157 were significantly lower than that of the ALSI and the gold spot price change. Compared to the ALSI and gold spot price, therefore, the R157 may be deemed a “low risk” instrument. The JIBAR was even less volatile that the R157. Interestingly, the US instruments were substantially more risky than the SA instruments over the analysis period. Also the JIBAR

  6. Suicide rates and risk factors among Korean cancer patients, 1993-2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Eunmi; Shin, Dong Wook; Cho, Sung-Il; Park, Sohee; Won, Young-Joo; Yun, Young Ho

    2010-08-01

    As the number of cancer survivors increases, suicide risk approaches that of the general population. We therefore investigated suicide rates and risk factors among Korean cancer patients. We observed 816,295 cancer patients for 3,007,294 person-years from 1993 to 2005 through a nationwide cancer registry. We calculated their sex- and age-standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and studied suicide risk factors using rate ratios (RR) based on a log-linear Poisson regression model. Compared with the Korean general population, the suicide rate among cancer patients was high [SMR, 2.00; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.91-2.08]. The rates were highest in the year following the cancer diagnosis (SMR, 3.45; 95% CI, 3.19-3.73) and were still elevated 5 years later (SMR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.12-1.36). The clinical groups at highest risk were male pancreas cancer patients (SMR, 6.01; 95% CI, 4.33-8.33) and female lung cancer patients (SMR, 3.55; 95% CI, 2.55-4.94). The sociodemographic groups at highest risk were those who had no spouse versus those who were married (RR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.35-1.68), those who were not employed versus those who were (RR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.26-1.54), and those who did not have high school education versus those who had (RR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.30-1.79). Korean cancer patients are at increased risk of suicide. Both clinical and sociodemographic factors play a role. There is a need for social support and suicide prevention strategies for cancer survivors in Korea. (c)2010 AACR.

  7. Risk Factors Influencing Conception Rate in Holstein Heifers before Artificial Insemination or Embryo Transfer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Yusuf

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to show the risk factors affecting the conception rate in Holstein heifers after synchronization of estrus. A total of 275 Holstein heifers housed in a free barn were used for the experiment. The herd was visited regularly at four week intervals for synchronization of estrus using Heatsynch and CIDR-Heatsynch protocols. A group of four to 14 animals, depending on the availability, were referred to the experiment at each visit. Estrus induction rates in the two protocols were 93.9% and 94.9%, respectively. There was no difference in the conception rate between the two protocols. Conception rate after artificial insemination (AI or embryo transfer (ET were 46.3% and 51.4%, respectively. The risk factors affecting conception rate in heifers were daily weight gain (odds ratio [OR]= 4.673; P= 0.036 and body condition score (BCS (OR= 3.642; P= 0.018. Furthermore, estrus synchronization protocol (OR= 1.774; P= 0.083 and the absence of corpus luteum (CL at the initiation of treatment (OR= 0.512; P= 0.061 had a tendency to affect the conception rate, while age (OR= 0.715; P= 0.008 was a protective factor to conception rate.  In conclusion, positive daily weight gain before AI or ET, higher BCS, younger age, and the presence of CL at the initiation of estrus synchronization in dairy heifers increased the likelihood to conceive.

  8. Rates and risk factors of injury in CrossFitTM: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Sebastian; Booker, Harry; Staines, Jacob; Williams, Sean

    2017-09-01

    CrossFitTM is a strength and conditioning program that has gained widespread popularity since its inception approximately 15 years ago. However, at present little is known about the level of injury risk associated with this form of training. Movement competency, assessed using the Functional Movement ScreenTM (FMS), has been identified as a risk factor for injury in numerous athletic populations, but its role in CrossFit participants is currently unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the level of injury risk associated with CrossFit training, and examine the influence of a number of potential risk factors (including movement competency). A cohort of 117 CrossFit participants were followed prospectively for 12 weeks. Participants' characteristics, previous injury history and training experience were recorded at baseline, and an FMS assessment was conducted. The overall injury incidence rate was 2.10 per 1000 training hours (90% confidence limits: 1.32-3.33). A multivariate Poisson regression model identified males (rate ratio [RR]: 4.44 ×/÷ 3.30, very likely harmful) and those with previous injuries (RR: 2.35 ×/÷ 2.37, likely harmful) as having a higher injury risk. Inferences relating to FMS variables were unclear in the multivariate model, although number of asymmetries was a clear risk factor in a univariate model (RR per two additional asymmetries: 2.62 ×/÷ 1.53, likely harmful). The injury incidence rate associated with CrossFit training was low, and comparable to other forms of recreational fitness activities. Previous injury and gender were identified as risk factors for injury, whilst the role of movement competency in this setting warrants further investigation.

  9. [Injury rate and incidence of accidents with biological risk among infirmary students].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Martín, A; Novalbos Ruiz, J P; Costa Alonso, M J; Zafra Mezcua, J A

    2000-09-09

    A study of the incidence and characteristics of biological accidents among infirmary students during their practicals at the hospital. A retrospective study carried out at five centres by means of two questionnaires, one on the duration of the training and the rate of accidents and the other on the characteristics, precautions and ports exposure behaviour. Out of 397 students, 70,5% had accidents at a rate of 64% (CI 95%, 59-68). Of these, 15% were accidents with biological risk, the majority being jabs (39%) and splashes (32,5%). It is worth note that 49,2% occurred while putting away the material and 58% in the absence of any individual protective measures. One out of 8 accidents implied a biological risk. A very high rate of accidents was observed with important deficiencies in security.

  10. Political Socialization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Himmelweit, Hilde T.

    1983-01-01

    Described are two longitudinal studies, one British, the other American, which examined the influences of varied socializing agents--e.g., family, school, peer groups--on voting behavior. The studies emphasized the hitherto unappreciated importance of the political, social, and economic climate of society and its changes on socialization. (CS)

  11. Politics 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslow, Abraham

    1977-01-01

    This article expresses some last thoughts from Abraham Maslow on his vision of humanistic psychology. He suggests that the two main problems of creating the good person and the good society are interwoven inextricably. He gives some social and political mechanisms which would enhance desirable personal growth and considers the main tasks of…

  12. Implementation Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hegland, Troels Jacob; Raakjær, Jesper

    2008-01-01

    level are supplemented or even replaced by national priorities. The chapter concludes that in order to capture the domestic politics associated with CFP implementation in Denmark, it is important to understand the policy process as a synergistic interaction between dominant interests, policy alliances...

  13. Political Rationality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solhaug, Trond; Kristensen, Niels Nørgaard

    The very idea about democracies is public participation in elections, decision-making and/or public engagement. The democratic participation distributes power among ordinary people and serve to legitimize decisions in public affairs and is a vital characteristic of a political culture.”The term...

  14. Framing politics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lecheler, S.K.

    2010-01-01

    This dissertation supplies a number of research findings that add to a theory of news framing effects, and also to the understanding of the role media effects play in political communication. We show that researchers must think more about what actually constitutes a framing effect, and that a

  15. Rates of adult acute inpatients documented as at risk of refeeding syndrome by dietitians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owers, Emma L; Reeves, Anneli I; Ko, Susan Y; Ellis, Aleshia K; Huxtable, Shannon L; Noble, Sally A; Porteous, Helen E; Newman, Eli J; Josephson, Christine A; Roth, Rachel A; Byrne, Clare E; Palmer, Michelle A

    2015-02-01

    Identification of Refeeding Syndrome (RFS) is vital for prevention and treatment of metabolic disturbances, yet no information exists that describes identification rates by dietitians in acute care. We aimed to describe rates and demographics of inpatients identified by dietitians as at-risk of RFS and factors associated with electrolyte levels post-dietetic assessment. Eligible participants were adult (≥ 18 yrs) acute care inpatients reviewed by dietitians between March 2012-February 2013 and not admitted to intensive care prior to first dietetic assessment. Patient information was sourced from medical charts. Chi-squared, t-tests and linear regression analyses were conducted. Of 1661 eligible inpatients (55%F, 65 ± 18 yrs), 9% (n = 151) were documented as at-risk of RFS in the first dietetic medical chart entry. On average, patients identified with RFS-risk had four days greater hospital stay, were 13 kg lighter, more likely classified SGA C (36% vs. 7%), and on a modified diet (52% vs. 35%) than non-RFS patients (p < 0.05). Very low and low electrolyte values occurred within seven days post-dietetic assessment in 7% and 52%, respectively, of inpatients with RFS-risk. Regression analysis showed that electrolyte supplementation was positively associated (β = 0.145-0.594), and number of RFS-related risk factors negatively associated (β = -0.044-0.122), with potassium, magnesium and phosphate levels within seven days post-dietetic assessment (p < 0.05). Nine percent of adult inpatients were documented as at-risk of RFS by dietitians. Identification of at-risk patients was in accordance with RFS guidelines. Electrolyte supplementation was positively associated with electrolyte levels post-assessment. Consistency of RFS-risk identification between dietitians requires determination. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Withdrawal rates as a consequence of disclosure of risk associated with manipulation of the cervical spine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Forrest Lianne

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The risk associated with cervical manipulation is controversial. Research in this area is widely variable but as yet the risk is not easily quantifiable. This presents a problem when informing the patient of risks when seeking consent and information may be withheld due to the fear of patient withdrawal from care. As yet, there is a lack of research into the frequency of risk disclosure and consequent withdrawal from manipulative treatment as a result. This study seeks to investigate the reality of this and to obtain insight into the attitudes of chiropractors towards informed consent and disclosure. Methods Questionnaires were posted to 200 UK chiropractors randomly selected from the register of the General Chiropractic Council. Results A response rate of 46% (n = 92 was achieved. Thirty-three per cent (n = 30 respondents were female and the mean number of years in practice was 10. Eighty-eight per cent considered explanation of the risks associated with any recommended treatment important when obtaining informed consent. However, only 45% indicated they always discuss this with patients in need of cervical manipulation. When asked whether they believed discussing the possibility of a serious adverse reaction to cervical manipulation could increase patient anxiety to the extent there was a strong possibility the patient would refuse treatment, 46% said they believed this could happen. Nonetheless, 80% said they believed they had a moral/ethical obligation to disclose risk associated with cervical manipulation despite these concerns. The estimated number of withdrawals throughout respondents' time in practice was estimated at 1 patient withdrawal for every 2 years in practice. Conclusion The withdrawal rate from cervical manipulation as a direct consequence of the disclosure of associated serious risks appears unfounded. However, notwithstanding legal obligations, reluctance to disclose risk due to fear of increasing patient

  17. A Comparative Risk Assessment of Extended Integrated Leak Rate Testing Intervals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Ji Yong; Hwang, Seok Won; Lee, Byung Sik [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-10-15

    This paper presents the risk impacts of extending the Integrated Leak Rate Testing (ILRT) intervals (from five years to ten years) of Yonggwang (YGN) Unit 1 and 2. These risk impacts depended on the annual variances of meteorological data and resident population. Main comparisons were performed between the initial risk assessment (2005) for the purpose of extending ILRT interval and risk reassessment (2009) where the changed plant internal configurations (core inventory and radioisotope release fraction) and plant external alterations (wind directions, rainfall and population distributions) were monitored. The reassessment showed that there was imperceptible risk increase when the ILRT interval was extended compared to the initial risk assessment. In addition, the increased value of the Large Early Release Frequency (LERF) also satisfied the acceptance guideline proposed on Reg. Guide 1.174. The MACCS II code was used for evaluating the offsite consequence analysis. The primary risk index were used as the Probabilistic Population Dose (PPD) by considering the early effects within 80 km. The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of YGN 1 and 2 was applied to evaluate the accident frequency of each source term category and the used PSA scope was limited to internal event.

  18. A Political, Economic, Social, Technology, Legal and Environmental (PESTLE Approach for Risk Identification of the Tidal Industry in the United Kingdom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athanasios Kolios

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of renewable and especially tidal energy through a political, economic, social, technology, legal and environmental (PESTLE analysis approach and by reviewing the most up to date relevant literature. The study focuses on the United Kingdom given the favourable environmental resources for such technologies; the number of different design concepts that are currently under development as well as the research funding that has been invested over the last few years. Findings of the analysis identify the risks and multiple stakeholders involved at all stages of the tidal energy projects development from the conceptualization of the design, right through to decommissioning. Many of the stakeholders present benefits to the tidal developers through funding, incentives and knowledge sharing, but at the same time they also present potential risks to the future of projects. This is mostly down to different approaches of the most important aspect of tidal energy that needs to be considered, making it hard for technologists and developers to equally address all requirements. From this research it can be concluded that several of these risks can be mitigated early on providing that particular stakeholders are involved at the correct stage of a project.

  19. Sovereign ratings in the post-crisis world : an analysis of actual, shadow and relative risk ratings

    OpenAIRE

    Basu, Kaushik; De, Supriyo; Ratha, Dilip; Timmer, Hans

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes the evolution of sovereign credit ratings in the wake of the global financial crisis by studying changes in actual, shadow, and relative ratings between 2008 and 2012. For countries that do not have a rating from the major rating agencies, shadow ratings are estimated as a function of macroeconomic, structural, and governance variables. The shadow rating exercise confir...

  20. Association Between NCAP Ratings and Real-World Rear Seat Occupant Risk of Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzger, Kristina B; Gruschow, Siobhan; Durbin, Dennis R; Curry, Allison E

    2015-01-01

    Several studies have evaluated the correlation between U.S. or Euro New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) ratings and injury risk to front seat occupants, in particular driver injuries. Conversely, little is known about whether NCAP 5-star ratings predict real-world risk of injury to restrained rear seat occupants. The NHTSA has identified rear seat occupant protection as a specific area under consideration for improvements to its NCAP. In order to inform NHTSA's efforts, we examined how NCAP's current 5-star rating system predicts risk of moderate or greater injury among restrained rear seat occupants in real-world crashes. We identified crash-involved vehicles, model year 2004-2013, in NASS-CDS (2003-2012) with known make and model and nonmissing occupant information. We manually matched these vehicles to their NCAP star ratings using data on make, model, model year, body type, and other identifying information. The resultant linked NASS-CDS and NCAP database was analyzed to examine associations between vehicle ratings and rear seat occupant injury risk; risk to front seat occupants was also estimated for comparison. Data were limited to restrained occupants and occupant injuries were defined as any injury with a maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score of 2 or greater. We linked 95% of vehicles in NASS-CDS to a specific vehicle in NCAP. The 18,218 vehicles represented an estimated 6 million vehicles with over 9 million occupants. Rear seat passengers accounted for 12.4% of restrained occupants. The risk of injury in all crashes for restrained rear seat occupants was lower in vehicles with a 5-star driver rating in frontal impact tests (1.4%) than with 4 or fewer stars (2.6%, P =.015); results were similar for the frontal impact passenger rating (1.3% vs. 2.4%, P =.024). Conversely, side impact driver and passenger crash tests were not associated with rear seat occupant injury risk (driver test: 1.7% for 5-star vs. 1.8% for 1-4 stars; passenger test: 1.6% for 5

  1. Freight-train derailment rates for railroad safety and risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiang; Rapik Saat, M; Barkan, Christopher P L

    2017-01-01

    Derailments are the most common type of train accident in the United States. They cause damage to infrastructure, rolling stock and lading, disrupt service, and have the potential to cause casualties, and harm the environment. Train safety and risk analysis relies on accurate assessment of derailment likelihood. Derailment rate - the number of derailments normalized by traffic exposure - is a useful statistic to estimate the likelihood of a derailment. Despite its importance, derailment rate analysis using multiple factors has not been previously developed. In this paper, we present an analysis of derailment rates on Class I railroad mainlines based on data from the U.S. Federal Railroad Administration and the major freight railroads. The point estimator and confidence interval of train and car derailment rates are developed by FRA track class, method of operation and annual traffic density. The analysis shows that signaled track with higher FRA track class and higher traffic density is associated with a lower derailment rate. The new accident rates have important implications for safety and risk management decisions, such as the routing of hazardous materials. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Asymmetry and Risk Premia in the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Ganem

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The risk premium in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates is partially driven by some specific defensive behavior following past monetary decisions. Until 2008, the Brazilian Central Bank has primarily dealt with domestic and external crises by raising the short term rate to restrain capital outflows, generating a well-known asymmetry in the market’s response functions to risk aversion. Therefore, the traditional parameterization of risk based on mean and variance estimators fails to capture the market price of risk eventually assigned to higher order moments of bond returns across several maturities. In this paper we propose an arbitrage-free, discrete-time model that provides the form for a lagged endogenous regression which tests the significance and magnitude of the market price of asymmetry in the Brazilian fixed income market. The results are analyzed from a historical perspective, comparing the evolution of the price of asymmetry, the improvement of Brazil’s sovereign risk and the monetary policy conduction from 2003 to 2009.

  3. [Morbidity rate of obesity in children in ukraine. Overweight as noncontagious disease risk factor].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Заболотна, Ірина Е

    The upsurge of prevalence rate of obesity and overweight that in the majority of cases traces back to childhood is a risk factor of the most common noncontagious diseases in adults. The aim was to analyze prevalence of obesity in children in Ukraine and to conduct the pilot study of medical condition of overweight children. Official state statistics of prevalence rate of obesity in kids and screening data of anthropometric characteristics, arterial tension levels, physical performance decrement and medical condition of children (boys - 50, girls - 90, average age - 15,1±0,1 years) was used in research. Data calculation performed by Statistica v. 6.0 software. Over the past few decades, the morbidity rate of obesity in children in Ukraine has greatly increased, especially in year class 15-17. Insufficient diagnosis of obesity in children is the consequence of the inadequacy of the existing system of preventive care and monitoring survey of decease risk factors. Children with body mass index (BMI) above normal have a risk of work decrement in 5,2 times (odds ratio, OR=5,2, CI95%: 1,7-10,6). Such children have higher risk of development of the diseases of the respiratory system (OR=8,1; CI95%: 3,9-13,6) and allergic dermatitis (OR=7,7; CI95%: 3,7-12,9). The odds ratio of arterial hypertension in such children is equal to 3,46±0,3 (95%CI: 2,0-5,9). According to prediction calculations, the situation with the increase of prevalence rate of obesity in children in Ukraine is unfavorable. The introduction of measures aimed at finding children with obesity, their registration and monitoring of patients' health with due regard to decease risk factors at the primary care level would conduce to improving prevention of obesity and prevention of alimentary diseases progression.

  4. Injury rates and injury risk factors among federal bureau of investigation new agent trainees

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background A one-year prospective examination of injury rates and injury risk factors was conducted in Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) new agent training. Methods Injury incidents were obtained from medical records and injury compensation forms. Potential injury risk factors were acquired from a lifestyle questionnaire and existing data at the FBI Academy. Results A total of 426 men and 105 women participated in the project. Thirty-five percent of men and 42% of women experienced one or more injuries during training. The injury incidence rate was 2.5 and 3.2 injuries/1,000 person-days for men and women, respectively (risk ratio (women/men) = 1.3, 95% confidence interval = 0.9-1.7). The activities most commonly associated with injuries (% of total) were defensive tactics training (58%), physical fitness training (20%), physical fitness testing (5%), and firearms training (3%). Among the men, higher injury risk was associated with older age, slower 300-meter sprint time, slower 1.5-mile run time, lower total points on the physical fitness test (PFT), lower self-rated physical activity, lower frequency of aerobic exercise, a prior upper or lower limb injury, and prior foot or knee pain that limited activity. Among the women higher injury risk was associated with slower 300-meter sprint time, slower 1.5-mile run time, lower total points on the PFT, and prior back pain that limited activity. Conclusion The results of this investigation supported those of a previous retrospective investigation emphasizing that lower fitness and self-reported pain limiting activity were associated with higher injury risk among FBI new agents. PMID:22166096

  5. Inclusion as political mobilisation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, Anne Mette; Muwanga, Nansozi

    2016-01-01

    constituencies. Finally, there is relatively weak pressure to push through education quality-enhancing reforms, be it from civil society in general, powerful interest groups, or parliament. At the local level, we find that how a school is situated within local elite networks is important in explaining local...... to implement qualityenhancing policies, first, because the formal and informal governance arrangements allow for a system of decentralised rent management that serves to appease lower level factions. Secondly, the NRM government is caught in the rhetoric of allowing free education in an appeal to rural......Uganda has been successful in broadening access to education. However, this achievement has been undermined by low literacy and numeracy levels and high drop-out rates. A political settlement perspective sheds light on the politics of education reforms. We find that there are weak political drives...

  6. Low-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Versus Cryotherapy in Low- and Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gestaut, Matthew M.; Cai, Wendi; Vyas, Shilpa; Patel, Belur J.; Hasan, Salman A.; MunozMaldonado, Yolanda; Deb, Niloyjyoti; Swanson, Gregory

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: Cryotherapy and brachytherapy are definitive local treatment options for low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. There are both prospective and retrospective data for brachytherapy, but the use of cryotherapy has been limited primarily to single-institution retrospective studies. Currently, no published evidence has compared low-dose-rate brachytherapy versus cryotherapy. Methods and Materials: Institutional review board approval was obtained to conduct a retrospective chart review of consecutive patients treated at our institution from 1990 to 2012. For inclusion, patients must have received a prostate cancer diagnosis and have been considered to have low- to intermediate-risk disease according to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network criteria. All patients received brachytherapy or cryotherapy treatment. Disease specifics and failure details were collected for all patients. Failure was defined as prostate-specific antigen nadir +2 ng/mL. Results: A total of 359 patients were analyzed. The groups comprised 50 low-risk cryotherapy (LRC), 92 intermediate-risk cryotherapy (IRC), 133 low-risk brachytherapy (LRB), and 84 intermediate-risk brachytherapy (IRB) patients. The median prostate-specific antigen follow-up periods were 85.6 months (LRC), 59.2 months (IRC), 74.9 months (LRB), and 59.8 months (IRB). The 5-year biochemical progression–free survival (bPFS) rate was 57.9% in the cryotherapy group versus 89.6% in the brachytherapy group (P<.0001). The 5-year bPFS rate was 70.0% (LRC), 51.4% (IRC), 89.4% (LRB), and 89.7% (IRB). The bPFS rate was significantly different between brachytherapy and cryotherapy for low- and intermediate-risk groups (P<.05). The mean nadir temperature reached for cryotherapy patients was −35°C (range, −96°C to −6°C). Cryotherapy used a median of 2 freeze-thaw cycles (range, 2-4 freeze-thaw cycles). Conclusions: Results from this study suggest that cryotherapy is inferior to brachytherapy for patients with

  7. The Credit-Risk Decision Mechanism on Fixed Loan Interest Rate with Imperfect Information

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, decision mechanism of credit-risk for banks is studied when the loan interest rate is fixed with asymmetry information in credit market. We give out the designs of rationing and non-rationing on credit risky decision mechanism when collateral value provided by an entrepreneur is not less than the minimum demands of the bank. It shows that under the action of the mechanism, banks could efficiently identify the risk size of the project. Finally, the condition of the project investigation of bank is given over again.

  8. Low-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Versus Cryotherapy in Low- and Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gestaut, Matthew M., E-mail: Matthew.Gestaut@BSWHealth.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Baylor Scott and White Memorial Hospital, Texas A& M University School of Medicine, Temple, Texas (United States); Cai, Wendi [Department of Biostatistics, Baylor Scott and White Health, Temple, Texas (United States); Vyas, Shilpa [Department of Radiation Oncology, Swedish Cancer Institute, Seattle, Washington (United States); Patel, Belur J. [Department of Urology, Baylor Scott and White Memorial Hospital, Texas A& M University School of Medicine, Temple, Texas (United States); Hasan, Salman A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Baylor Scott and White Memorial Hospital, Texas A& M University School of Medicine, Temple, Texas (United States); MunozMaldonado, Yolanda [Department of Biostatistics, Baylor Scott and White Health, Temple, Texas (United States); Deb, Niloyjyoti; Swanson, Gregory [Department of Radiation Oncology, Baylor Scott and White Memorial Hospital, Texas A& M University School of Medicine, Temple, Texas (United States)

    2017-05-01

    Purpose: Cryotherapy and brachytherapy are definitive local treatment options for low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. There are both prospective and retrospective data for brachytherapy, but the use of cryotherapy has been limited primarily to single-institution retrospective studies. Currently, no published evidence has compared low-dose-rate brachytherapy versus cryotherapy. Methods and Materials: Institutional review board approval was obtained to conduct a retrospective chart review of consecutive patients treated at our institution from 1990 to 2012. For inclusion, patients must have received a prostate cancer diagnosis and have been considered to have low- to intermediate-risk disease according to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network criteria. All patients received brachytherapy or cryotherapy treatment. Disease specifics and failure details were collected for all patients. Failure was defined as prostate-specific antigen nadir +2 ng/mL. Results: A total of 359 patients were analyzed. The groups comprised 50 low-risk cryotherapy (LRC), 92 intermediate-risk cryotherapy (IRC), 133 low-risk brachytherapy (LRB), and 84 intermediate-risk brachytherapy (IRB) patients. The median prostate-specific antigen follow-up periods were 85.6 months (LRC), 59.2 months (IRC), 74.9 months (LRB), and 59.8 months (IRB). The 5-year biochemical progression–free survival (bPFS) rate was 57.9% in the cryotherapy group versus 89.6% in the brachytherapy group (P<.0001). The 5-year bPFS rate was 70.0% (LRC), 51.4% (IRC), 89.4% (LRB), and 89.7% (IRB). The bPFS rate was significantly different between brachytherapy and cryotherapy for low- and intermediate-risk groups (P<.05). The mean nadir temperature reached for cryotherapy patients was −35°C (range, −96°C to −6°C). Cryotherapy used a median of 2 freeze-thaw cycles (range, 2-4 freeze-thaw cycles). Conclusions: Results from this study suggest that cryotherapy is inferior to brachytherapy for patients with

  9. Ischemic risk stratification by means of multivariate analysis of the heart rate variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valencia, José F; Vallverdú, Montserrat; Caminal, Pere; Porta, Alberto; Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Vázquez, Rafael; Bayés de Luna, Antonio

    2013-01-01

    In this work, a univariate and multivariate statistical analysis of indexes derived from heart rate variability (HRV) was conducted to stratify patients with ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (IDC) in cardiac risk groups. Indexes conditional entropy, refined multiscale entropy (RMSE), detrended fluctuation analysis, time and frequency analysis, were applied to the RR interval series (beat-to-beat series), for single and multiscale complexity analysis of the HRV in IDC patients. Also, clinical parameters were considered. Two different end-points after a follow-up of three years were considered: (i) analysis A, with 151 survivor patients as a low risk group and 13 patients that suffered sudden cardiac death as a high risk group; (ii) analysis B, with 192 survivor patients as a low risk group and 30 patients that suffered cardiac mortality as a high risk group. A univariate and multivariate linear discriminant analysis was used as a statistical technique for classifying patients in risk groups. Sensitivity (Sen) and specificity (Spe) were calculated as diagnostic criteria in order to evaluate the performance of the indexes and their linear combinations. Sen and Spe values of 80.0% and 72.9%, respectively, were obtained during daytime by combining one clinical parameter and one index from RMSE, and during nighttime Sen = 80% and Spe = 73.4% were attained by combining one clinical factor and two indexes from RMSE. In particular, relatively long time scales were more relevant for classifying patients into risk groups during nighttime, while during daytime shorter scales performed better. The results suggest that the left atrial size, indexed to body surface and RMSE indexes are those that allow enhanced classification of ischemic patients in their respective risk groups, confirming that a single measurement is not enough to fully characterize ischemic risk patients and the clinical relevance of HRV complexity measures. (paper)

  10. ``Political'' Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berzak Hopkins, Laura

    2013-03-01

    Politics and policy affect all of us, both as scientists and as citizens, and issues ranging from laboratory budgets to arms control treaties clearly require research problem-solving skills and technical expertise. There is a critical role for scientists in each aspect of the political system, and in fact, we as a society need more scientists to take part in politics. Furthermore, the research we pursue has important societal applications and is fascinating! We have a right and a responsibility to share our scientific knowledge not only with each other, but with the general public as well. So, why are we as a community of scientists reticent in the public arena, hesitant to enter politics, and even at times unsupportive of our peers who transition into governmental roles? In this time of fiscal constraint, when difficult research funding (and de-funding) choices are regularly being made, we as scientists must step up to the plate, reach across the aisle, and explain why what we do is fascinating, inspiring, and important, not just to us, but to society as a whole. A range of policy-relevant roles exists inside and outside the laboratory, such as Congressional Fellowships. Each year the Congressional Fellowships program brings together approximately thirty scientists at all stages of their careers to serve as scientific advisors in a variety of offices in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. Although the jump from lab to lobbying meetings can be frustrating, the transition can also be intriguing. Firsthand experience with the ``how'' and ``why'' (or lack thereof) of politics and policy is invaluable and provides a unique opportunity to expand and broaden one's background. The opportunity to work on Capitol Hill is unparalleled, particularly because our nation has a definite need for scientists with the inclination and interest to inform and develop policy. But, whatever role you decide to take, from contributing scientific news to local publications to

  11. Exploring Women's Understanding of Politics, Political Contestation ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Exploring Women's Understanding of Politics, Political Contestation and Gender ... First, researchers will explore women's political leadership and the extent to ... Sign up now for IDRC news and views sent directly to your inbox each month.

  12. Political Efficacy and Participation of Nurse Practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Rourke, Nancy C; Crawford, Sybil L; Morris, Nancy S; Pulcini, Joyce

    2017-08-01

    Twenty-eight states have laws and regulations limiting the ability of nurse practitioners (NPs) to practice to the full extent of their education and training, thereby preventing patients from fully accessing NP services. Revisions to state laws and regulations require NPs to engage in the political process. Understanding the political engagement of NPs may facilitate the efforts of nurse leaders and nursing organizations to promote change in state rules and regulations. The purpose of this study was to describe the political efficacy and political participation of U.S. NPs and gain insight into factors associated with political interest and engagement. In the fall of 2015, we mailed a survey to 2,020 NPs randomly chosen from the American Academy of Nurse Practitioners' database and 632 responded (31% response rate). Participants completed the Trust in Government (external political efficacy) and the Political Efficacy (internal political efficacy) scales, and a demographic form. Overall, NPs have low political efficacy. Older age ( p≤.001), health policy mentoring ( p≤.001), and specific education on health policy ( p≤.001) were all positively associated with internal political efficacy and political participation. External political efficacy was not significantly associated with any of the study variables. Political activities of NPs are largely limited to voting and contacting legislators. Identifying factors that engage NPs in grassroots political activities and the broader political arena is warranted, particularly with current initiatives to make changes to state laws and regulations that limit their practice.

  13. Prior rates of visual field loss and lifetime risk of blindness in glaucomatous patients undergoing trabeculectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foulsham, W S; Fu, L; Tatham, A J

    2015-10-01

    Trend-based analyses examining rates of visual field (VF) loss in glaucoma are useful for predicting risk of vision-related morbidity. Although patients with faster losses are likely to require treatment escalation, little is known about rates that might trigger a decision to intervene surgically. The aims of this study were to investigate prior rates of VF loss in patients attending for trabeculectomy and to estimate, in the absence of surgical intervention, lifetime risk of visual impairment, and blindness. A retrospective analysis of 117 eyes of 86 consecutive patients with glaucoma attending for trabeculectomy, including 53 patients referred from general ophthalmology clinics and 33 patients from specialist glaucoma clinics. Rates of change in standard automated perimetry mean deviation were examined using linear regression and random coefficient models. Risk of lifetime visual impairment and blindness was calculated using life expectancy data. Mean age at surgery was 71.0±9.7 years. Patients were followed for 10.7±7.5 years prior to surgery with an average of seven useable fields per eye. On average patients referred from general clinics lost 1.04 dB/year compared with 0.77 dB/year in those referred from glaucoma clinics (P=0.070). Patients referred from general clinics had more medication changes prior to surgery (3.4 and 2.6 changes, respectively; P=0.004). Given Scottish life expectancy data, untreated, 61 eyes (52%) would have passed the threshold for visual impairment, whereas 40 (34%) would have passed the threshold demarcating blindness. Patients attending for trabeculectomy had faster average rates of field loss prior to surgery than published values for the general glaucoma population with over one-third of eyes studied predicted to have become blind without intervention. Those managed by glaucoma specialists had fewer changes in medication and tended to slower rates of VF loss, although the latter did not reach statistical significance.

  14. Risk factors and outcomes of high peritonitis rate in continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Yuanshi; Xie, Xishao; Xiang, Shilong; Yang, Xin; Zhang, Xiaohui; Shou, Zhangfei; Chen, Jianghua

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Peritonitis remains a major complication of peritoneal dialysis (PD). A high peritonitis rate (HPR) affects continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) patients’ technique survival and mortality. Predictors and outcomes of HPR, rather than the first peritonitis episode, were rarely studied in the Chinese population. In this study, we examined the risk factors associated with HPR and its effects on clinical outcomes in CAPD patients. This is a single center, retrospective, observational cohort study. A total of 294 patients who developing at least 1 episode of peritonitis were followed up from March 1st, 2002, to July 31, 2014, in our PD center. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the factors associated with HPR, and the Cox proportional hazard model was conducted to assess the effects of HPR on clinical outcomes. During the study period of 2917.5 patient-years, 489 episodes of peritonitis were recorded, and the total peritonitis rate was 0.168 episodes per patient-year. The multivariate analysis showed that factors associated with HPR include a quick occurrence of peritonitis after CAPD initiation (shorter than 12 months), and a low serum albumin level at the start of CAPD. In the Cox proportional hazard model, HPR was a significant predictor of technique failure. There were no differences between HPR and low peritonitis rate (LPR) group for all-cause mortality. However, when the peritonitis rate was considered as a continuous variable, a positive correlation was observed between the peritonitis rate and mortality. We found the quick peritonitis occurrence after CAPD and the low serum albumin level before CAPD were strongly associated with an HPR. Also, our results verified that HPR was positively correlated with technique failure. More importantly, the increase in the peritonitis rate suggested a higher risk of all-cause mortality. These results may help to identify and target patients who are at higher risk of HPR at the start

  15. Underground Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galis, Vasilis; Summerton, Jane

    Public spaces are often contested sites involving the political use of sociomaterial arrangements to check, control and filter the flow of people (see Virilio 1977, 1996). Such arrangements can include configurations of state-of-the-art policing technologies for delineating and demarcating borders...... status updates on identity checks at the metro stations in Stockholm and reports on locations and time of ticket controls for warning travelers. Thus the attempts by authorities to exert control over the (spatial) arena of the underground is circumvented by the effective developing of an alternative...... infrastructural "underground" consisting of assemblages of technologies, activists, immigrants without papers, texts and emails, homes, smart phones and computers. Investigating the embedded politics of contested spatial arrangements as characteristic of specific societies one can discover not only the uses...

  16. Political Epistemology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, David Budtz

    2011-01-01

    This dissertation is intended to establish a framework for a revised picture of the loci of epistemic preferences in our complex knowledge-based society. In what ways do institutions, policies and regulations determine the conditions under which knowledge is produced and justified? This dissertat......? This dissertation argues that we can identify multiple epistemic preferences in the institutional and political settings that govern the production and distribution of knowledge....

  17. Value at risk using financial copulas: Application to the Mexican exchange rate (2002-2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tania Nadiezhda Plascencia Cuevas

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, the volatility of exchange rate is a crucial and a transcendental issue for all transactions, negotiations and operations taking place in foreign currency, being an objective and an accurate prediction the cornerstone. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to analyze whether the Mexican exchange rate market, risk assessment using traditional VaR and VaR with copulas methodologies are more accurate when the estimates are made for a wide historical time-series or two periods for certain, helping it to predict the maximum losses that may be, with the main motivation to have a efficient hedging strategy. The principal conclusion is that assessing risk with these methodologies, the series does not necessarily have to include more than five years, considering that the use of copulas as a dependent measure make that the prediction fits better to the movements of the real returns.

  18. Mechanisms of Protection from Interest Rate Risk with Reference to the Life Insurance Market in Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burić Milijana Novović

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Insurance companies are facing major challenges that point to the need for control process and risk management. Risk management in insurance has a direct impact on solvency, economic security, and overall financial stability of insurance companies. It is very important for insurance companies to adequately calculate risks to which they are exposed. Asset liability management (ALM, as an integrated approach to financial management, requires simultaneous decision-making about categories and values of assets and liabilities in order to establish the optimum volume and the ratio of assets and liabilities, with the understanding of complexity of the financial market in which financial institutions operate. ALM focuses on a significant number of risks, whereby the emphasis in this paper will be on interest rate risk which indicates potential losses that may reflect in a lower interest margin, a lower value of assets or both, in terms of changes in interest rates. In the above context, the aim of this paper is to show how to protect from interest rate changes and how these changes influence the insurance market in Montenegro, both from the theoretical and the practical point of view. The authors consider this to be an interesting and very important topic, especially because the life insurance market in Montenegro is underdeveloped and subject to fluctuations. Also, taking into account the fact that Montenegro is a country that has been making serious efforts to join the EU, it is expected that insurance companies in Montenegro will strengthen their financial position in the market even using the ALM traditional techniques, which is shown in this paper.

  19. Quantification of Gains and Risks of Static Thermal Rating Based on Typical Meteorological Year

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Heckenbergerová, Jana; Musílek, P.; Filimonenkov, K.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 44, č. 1 (2013), s. 227-235 ISSN 0142-0615 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12009 Grant - others:GA AV ČR(CZ) M100300904 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : Overhead power transmission lines * Conductor ampacity * Probabilistic static thermal rating * Typical meteorological year * Risk tolerance * Energy throughput Subject RIV: JE - Non-nuclear Energetics, Energy Consumption ; Use Impact factor: 3.432, year: 2012

  20. Tobacco, alcohol, and other risk behaviors in film: how well do MPAA ratings distinguish content?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tickle, Jennifer J; Beach, Michael L; Dalton, Madeline A

    2009-12-01

    To evaluate the usefulness of Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA) ratings for parental selection of appropriate films for children, the 100 top grossing movies each year from 1996 through 2004 (N = 900) were content analyzed to measure risk behaviors in each film. More restrictive MPAA ratings (R and PG-13) were associated with increased mean seconds of portrayals of tobacco use, alcohol use, and sexual content; increased frequency of violent content; and increased salience of drug use. MPAA ratings, however, did not clearly distinguish films based on tobacco or alcohol use. Fifty percent of R-rated movies contained 124 seconds or more of tobacco use, comparable with 26% of PG-13 and 17% of PG movies. Fifty percent of R-rated movies contained 162 seconds or more of alcohol use, comparable with 49% of PG-13 and 25% of PG movies. Because of the high degree of overlap in alcohol and tobacco content between rating categories, the MPAA rating system, as currently defined, is not adequate for parents who wish to limit their children's exposure to tobacco or alcohol content in movies.

  1. Domestic Politics and Nuclear Proliferation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Chul Min; Yim, Man Sung

    2016-01-01

    The external security threat is known as the most important factor of nuclear weapons program, the domestic politics situation can also affect the nuclear proliferation decision of a country. For example, when a leader wants nuclear weapons as an ultimate weapon, the domestic politics situation can determine the effectiveness of the weapons program of a country. This study analyzes the current knowledge of the relationship between domestic politics and nuclear proliferation and suggests the main challenges of the quantitative models trying to calculate nuclear proliferation risk of countries. The domestic politics status is one of the most important indicators of nuclear program. However, some variables have never been used in quantitative analyses; for example, number of veto players and the public opinion on nuclear weapons; despite they are considered to be important in various qualitative studies. Future studies should focus on how should they be coded and how can they be linked with existing domestic politics variables

  2. Domestic Politics and Nuclear Proliferation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Chul Min; Yim, Man Sung [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The external security threat is known as the most important factor of nuclear weapons program, the domestic politics situation can also affect the nuclear proliferation decision of a country. For example, when a leader wants nuclear weapons as an ultimate weapon, the domestic politics situation can determine the effectiveness of the weapons program of a country. This study analyzes the current knowledge of the relationship between domestic politics and nuclear proliferation and suggests the main challenges of the quantitative models trying to calculate nuclear proliferation risk of countries. The domestic politics status is one of the most important indicators of nuclear program. However, some variables have never been used in quantitative analyses; for example, number of veto players and the public opinion on nuclear weapons; despite they are considered to be important in various qualitative studies. Future studies should focus on how should they be coded and how can they be linked with existing domestic politics variables.

  3. Low mortality rates after endovascular aortic repair expand use to high-risk patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adkar, Shaunak S; Turner, Megan C; Leraas, Harold J; Gilmore, Brian F; Nag, Uttara; Turley, Ryan S; Shortell, Cynthia K; Mureebe, Leila

    2018-02-01

    The 2010 endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) trial 2 (EVAR 2) reported that patients with comorbidity profiles rendering them unfit for open aneurysm repair who underwent EVAR did not experience a survival advantage compared with those who did not undergo intervention. These patients experienced a 30-day mortality of 7.3%, whereas reports from similar cohorts reported far lower mortality rates. The primary objective of our study was to compare the incidence of 30-day mortality in low- and high-risk patients undergoing EVAR in a contemporary data set, using patient risk stratification criteria from EVAR 2. Secondarily, we sought to identify risk factors associated with a disproportionate contribution to 30-day mortality risk. Data were obtained from the 2005 to 2013 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Participant Use Data Files (N = 24,813). Patients were included in the high-risk cohort with the presence of renal, respiratory, or cardiac preoperative criteria alone or in combination. Renal impairment criteria were defined as dialysis and creatinine concentration >2.26 mg/dL. Respiratory impairment criteria included history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and preoperative ventilator support. Cardiac impairment criteria included history of myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, angina, and prior coronary intervention. Patient and procedural characteristics and 30-day postoperative outcomes were compared using Pearson χ 2 tests for categorical variables and Wilcoxon rank sum tests for continuous variables. Among 24,813 patients undergoing EVAR, 12,043 (48%) patients were characterized as high risk (at least one impairment criterion); 12,770 (52%) patients were stratified as low risk. The 30-day mortality rate was 1.9% in the high-risk cohort compared with the 7.3% reported by EVAR 2, and it was higher in the high-risk cohort compared with the low-risk cohort (1.9% vs 0.9%; P < .001). Whereas the

  4. Prevalence Rate and Risk Factors of Depression in Outpatients with Premature Ejaculation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiansheng Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to investigate the prevalence rate and risk factors of depression in outpatients who were diagnosed with PE. Therefore, between September 2009 and September 2011, 1801 outpatients at andrology clinics were enrolled and consented to participate in our survey by completed a verbal questionnaire. It included the following: (1 demographic data (e.g., age, body mass index, (2 PE duration, medical history, and sexual history, (3 self-estimated intravaginal ejaculatory latency times, (4 the Zung Self-rating Depression Scale (SDS, and (5 the National Institute of Health Chronic Prostatitis Symptom Index (NIH-CPSI and (6 the International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF-5. The results showed that a total of 1,206 patients were diagnosed with PE. The prevalence rate of depression in these PE patients was 26.78%. Depression was associated with PE duration, NIH-CPSI score, and IIEF-5 score. Risk factors for depression specifically included PE durations for 13–24, 25–60, or ≥61 months, CPSI scores of 15–30 or ≥31, and IIEF-5 scores <22. These findings suggested that several associated factors (PE duration, CPSI scores, and IIEF-5 scores were the risk factors of depression in men with PE.

  5. Consistent high clinical pregnancy rates and low ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome rates in high-risk patients after GnRH agonist triggering and modified luteal support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iliodromiti, Stamatina; Blockeel, Christophe; Tremellen, Kelton P

    2013-01-01

    Are clinical pregnancy rates satisfactory and the incidence of OHSS low after GnRH agonist trigger and modified intensive luteal support in patients with a high risk of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS)?......Are clinical pregnancy rates satisfactory and the incidence of OHSS low after GnRH agonist trigger and modified intensive luteal support in patients with a high risk of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS)?...

  6. Short-term versus long-term heart rate variability in ischemic cardiomyopathy risk stratification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas eVoss

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In industrialized countries with aging populations, heart failure affects 0.3%-2% of the general population. The investigation of 24h-ECG recordings revealed the potential of nonlinear indices of heart rate variability (HRV for enhanced risk stratification in patients with ischemic heart failure (IHF. However, long-term analyses are time-consuming, expensive and delay the initial diagnosis. The objective of this study was to investigate whether 30min short-term HRV analysis is sufficient for comparable risk stratification in IHF in comparison to 24h-HRV analysis. From 256 IHF patients (221 at low risk (IHFLR and 35 at high risk (IHFHR a 24h beat-to-beat time series b the first 30min segment c the 30min most stationary day segment and d the 30min most stationary night segment were investigated. We calculated linear (time and frequency domain and nonlinear HRV analysis indices. Optimal parameter sets for risk stratification in IHF were determined for 24 hours and for each 30min segment by applying discriminant analysis on significant clinical and non-clinical indices. Long- and short-term HRV indices from frequency domain and particularly from nonlinear dynamics revealed high univariate significances (p

  7. The Political Opportunity of the Outsider

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lubinski, Christina

    between developed national economies rose in the wake of World War I, as anti-­‐colonial and communist movements gained ground, and international monetary instability increased. Yet, far from retrenching from the global economy, German MNEs capitalized on the growing political risks by developing......This paper examines the political strategies of two German firms—Siemens and I.G. Farben—in interwar India as a way to consider how multinational enterprises (MNEs) deal with political risk. The interwar period was characterized by rising political risks throughout the global economy, as conflicts...

  8. Analyse of the prevalence rate and risk factors of pulmonary embolism in the patients with dyspnea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Yanxia; Su Jian; Wang Bingsheng; Wu Songhong; Dai Ruiting; Cao Caixia

    2005-01-01

    Objective: To analyse the prevalence rate and risk factors of pulmonary embolism (PE) in patients with dyspnea and to explore the predisposing causes and its early clinical manifestations. Methods: Retrospective analysis was done in 461 patients with dyspnea performed 99 Tc m -macroaggregated albumin (MAA) lung perfusion imaging and 99 Tc m -DTPA ventilation imaging or 99 Tc m -MAA perfusion imaging and chest X-ray examination. Among them, 48 cases without apparent disease were considered as control group, whereas the remaining patients with other underlying illnesses as patients group. PEMS statistics software package was used for estimation of prevalence rate, χ 2 test and PE risk factor analysis. Results: There were 251 PE patients among 461 patients, the prevalence rate [ (π)=95% confidence interval (CI) ] was: lower extremity thrombosis and varicosity (80.79-95.47 ), post cesarean section (55.64-87.12), lower extremity bone surgery or fracture (52.76-87.27 ), cancer operation (52.19-78.19), atrial fibrillation or heart failure (53.30-74.88), obesity (23.14-50.20), post abdominal surgery (20.23-59.43), diabetes (19.12-63.95), chronic bronchitis (1.80-23.06), normal control group (3.47-22.66). Except chronic bronchitis, PE prevalence rate between patients group and control group had significant difference (P 99 Tc m -MAA and DTPA lung imaging should be done as early as possible. (authors)

  9. Modified Exponential (MOE) Models: statistical Models for Risk Estimation of Low dose Rate Radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogata, H.; Furukawa, C.; Kawakami, Y.; Magae, J.

    2004-01-01

    Simultaneous inclusion of dose and dose-rate is required to evaluate the risk of long term irradiation at low dose-rates, since biological responses to radiation are complex processes that depend both on irradiation time and total dose. Consequently, it is necessary to consider a model including cumulative dose,dose-rate and irradiation time to estimate quantitative dose-response relationship on the biological response to radiation. In this study, we measured micronucleus formation and (3H) thymidine uptake in U2OS, human osteosarcoma cell line, as indicators of biological response to gamma radiation. Cells were exposed to gamma ray in irradiation room bearing 50,000 Ci 60Co. After irradiation, they were cultured for 24h in the presence of cytochalasin B to block cytokinesis, and cytoplasm and nucleus were stained with DAPI and propidium iodide. The number of binuclear cells bearing a micronucleus was counted under a florescence microscope. For proliferation inhibition, cells were cultured for 48 h after the irradiation and (3h) thymidine was pulsed for 4h before harvesting. We statistically analyzed the data for quantitative evaluation of radiation risk at low dose/dose-rate. (Author)

  10. The long shadow of the past: risk pooling and the political development of health care reform in the States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Anthony S; Weir, Margaret

    2009-10-01

    Why do the states seem to be pursuing different types of policy innovation in their health reform? Why so some seem to follow a "solidarity principle," while others seem guided by a commitment to "actuarial fairness"? Our analysis highlights the reciprocal influence of stakeholder mobilization and public policy over time. We find that early policy choices about how to achieve cost containment led the states down different paths of reform. In the 1970s and 1980s, states that featured oligopolistic or near-monopolistic markets for private insurance (usually dominated by Blue Cross) and strong urban-academic hospitals tended to adopt regulatory strategies for cost containment that led to broader forms of pooling and financing the costs of health risks--which subsequently positioned them to pursue major, solidaristic reform on favorable terms. On the other hand, states with competitive markets for private insurance and weak, decentralized hospitals tended to adopt market-based strategies for cost containment that led to the hypersegmentation of risk and the uneven financing of costs--thereby encouraging the proliferation of incremental policies that reinforce the principle of actuarial fairness. We illustrate our analysis with a brief comparison of Massachusetts and California, and we conclude with some thoughts on what our findings imply for the federal role in catalyzing health reform.

  11. Increased fracture rate in women with breast cancer: a review of the hidden risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Body Jean-Jacques

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Women with breast cancer, particularly individuals diagnosed at a relatively early age, have an increased incidence of fractures. Fractures can have serious clinical consequences including the need for major surgery, increased morbidity and mortality, increased cost of disease management, and reduced quality of life for patients. The primary cause of the increased fracture risk appears to be an accelerated decrease in bone mineral density (BMD resulting from the loss of estrogenic signaling that occurs with most treatments for breast cancer, including aromatase inhibitors. However, factors other than BMD levels alone may influence treatment decisions to reduce fracture risk in this setting. Our purpose is to review current evidence for BMD loss and fracture risk during treatment for breast cancer and discuss pharmacologic means to reduce this risk. Results Fracture risk during treatment for breast cancer may be influenced by the rate of BMD loss and the consequent rapid alterations in bone microarchitecture, in addition to the established fracture risk factors in postmenopausal osteoporosis. The rapid decrease in BMD during adjuvant chemoendocrine therapy for breast cancer may necessitate more aggressive pharmacotherapy than is indicated for healthy postmenopausal women who develop osteoporosis. Over the last few years, clinical trials have established the effectiveness of bisphosphonates and other antiresorptive agents to preserve BMD during adjuvant therapy for early breast cancer. In addition, some bisphosphonates (eg, zoledronic acid may also delay disease recurrence in women with hormone-responsive tumors, thereby providing an adjuvant benefit in addition to preserving BMD and potentially preventing fractures. Conclusions It is likely that a combined fracture risk assessment (eg, as in the WHO FRAX algorithm will more accurately identify both women with postmenopausal osteoporosis and women with breast cancer who require

  12. Political Warfare and Contentious Politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    the DC and PSLI Overt, Indirect • US forming a coalition with France and Britain to return Trieste to Italy control • US Urged French and British...efforts to alter Chile’s social construct by calling for the end to the Allende government, pointing out the failures of Marxism , encouraging a...political or social change. Frances Piven and Richard Cloward describe three attributes associated with group consciousness and cognitive

  13. Restoring Politics to Political History

    OpenAIRE

    Kousser, J. Morgan

    1982-01-01

    If history ever was simply the study of past politics, it is no longer. Dissatisfied with narratives of Great Men, more interested in analyzing the impact of larger forces and in tracing out patterns of the lives of the masses of people, skeptical that a recounting of election campaigns and a counting of votes reveals much about social thought or action, strongly affected by currents of opinion which have long run deep in France, American historians have turned increas...

  14. State infant mortality: an ecologic study to determine modifiable risks and adjusted infant mortality rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, David A; Mackley, Amy; Locke, Robert G; Stefano, John L; Kroelinger, Charlan

    2009-05-01

    To determine factors contributing to state infant mortality rates (IMR) and develop an adjusted IMR in the United States for 2001 and 2002. Ecologic study of factors contributing to state IMR. State IMR for 2001 and 2002 were obtained from the United States linked death and birth certificate data from the National Center for Health Statistics. Factors investigated using multivariable linear regression included state racial demographics, ethnicity, state population, median income, education, teen birth rate, proportion of obesity, smoking during pregnancy, diabetes, hypertension, cesarean delivery, prenatal care, health insurance, self-report of mental illness, and number of in-vitro fertilization procedures. Final risk adjusted IMR's were standardized and states were compared with the United States adjusted rates. Models for IMR in individual states in 2001 (r2 = 0.66, P < 0.01) and 2002 (r2 = 0.81, P < 0.01) were tested. African-American race, teen birth rate, and smoking during pregnancy remained independently associated with state infant mortality rates for 2001 and 2002. Ninety five percent confidence intervals (CI) were calculated around the regression lines to model the expected IMR. After adjustment, some states maintained a consistent IMR; for instance, Vermont and New Hampshire remained low, while Delaware and Louisiana remained high. However, other states such as Mississippi, which have traditionally high infant mortality rates, remained within the expected 95% CI for IMR after adjustment indicating confounding affected the initial unadjusted rates. Non-modifiable demographic variables, including the percentage of non-Hispanic African-American and Hispanic populations of the state are major factors contributing to individual variation in state IMR. Race and ethnicity may confound or modify the IMR in states that shifted inside or outside the 95% CI following adjustment. Other factors including smoking during pregnancy and teen birth rate, which are

  15. Low-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Versus Cryotherapy in Low- and Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gestaut, Matthew M; Cai, Wendi; Vyas, Shilpa; Patel, Belur J; Hasan, Salman A; MunozMaldonado, Yolanda; Deb, Niloyjyoti; Swanson, Gregory

    2017-05-01

    Cryotherapy and brachytherapy are definitive local treatment options for low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. There are both prospective and retrospective data for brachytherapy, but the use of cryotherapy has been limited primarily to single-institution retrospective studies. Currently, no published evidence has compared low-dose-rate brachytherapy versus cryotherapy. Institutional review board approval was obtained to conduct a retrospective chart review of consecutive patients treated at our institution from 1990 to 2012. For inclusion, patients must have received a prostate cancer diagnosis and have been considered to have low- to intermediate-risk disease according to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network criteria. All patients received brachytherapy or cryotherapy treatment. Disease specifics and failure details were collected for all patients. Failure was defined as prostate-specific antigen nadir +2 ng/mL. A total of 359 patients were analyzed. The groups comprised 50 low-risk cryotherapy (LRC), 92 intermediate-risk cryotherapy (IRC), 133 low-risk brachytherapy (LRB), and 84 intermediate-risk brachytherapy (IRB) patients. The median prostate-specific antigen follow-up periods were 85.6 months (LRC), 59.2 months (IRC), 74.9 months (LRB), and 59.8 months (IRB). The 5-year biochemical progression-free survival (bPFS) rate was 57.9% in the cryotherapy group versus 89.6% in the brachytherapy group (Pcryotherapy for low- and intermediate-risk groups (Pcryotherapy patients was -35°C (range, -96°C to -6°C). Cryotherapy used a median of 2 freeze-thaw cycles (range, 2-4 freeze-thaw cycles). Results from this study suggest that cryotherapy is inferior to brachytherapy for patients with low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. Patient selection criteria for consideration of cryotherapy and brachytherapy are similar in terms of anesthesia candidacy. Therefore, cryotherapy would not be recommended as a first-line local therapy for this particular

  16. The association between social networks and self-rated risk of HIV ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Elizabeth J. Lyimo

    2014-03-18

    Mar 18, 2014 ... Christian Medical University College, Moshi Tanzania d. PhD Political ... MPH, Public Health Specialist, Kilimanjaro Christian Medical College, Department of ..... ecological model (SEM) described by Bronfenbrenner (1994).

  17. A real-time heat strain risk classifier using heart rate and skin temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buller, Mark J; Latzka, William A; Yokota, Miyo; Tharion, William J; Moran, Daniel S

    2008-01-01

    Heat injury is a real concern to workers engaged in physically demanding tasks in high heat strain environments. Several real-time physiological monitoring systems exist that can provide indices of heat strain, e.g. physiological strain index (PSI), and provide alerts to medical personnel. However, these systems depend on core temperature measurement using expensive, ingestible thermometer pills. Seeking a better solution, we suggest the use of a model which can identify the probability that individuals are 'at risk' from heat injury using non-invasive measures. The intent is for the system to identify individuals who need monitoring more closely or who should apply heat strain mitigation strategies. We generated a model that can identify 'at risk' (PSI ≥ 7.5) workers from measures of heart rate and chest skin temperature. The model was built using data from six previously published exercise studies in which some subjects wore chemical protective equipment. The model has an overall classification error rate of 10% with one false negative error (2.7%), and outperforms an earlier model and a least squares regression model with classification errors of 21% and 14%, respectively. Additionally, the model allows the classification criteria to be adjusted based on the task and acceptable level of risk. We conclude that the model could be a valuable part of a multi-faceted heat strain management system. (note)

  18. Neural Network for Determining Risk Rate of Post-Heart Stroke Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oldřich Trenz

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The ischemic heart disease presents an important health problem that affects a great part of the population and is the cause of one third of all deaths in the Czech Republic. The availability of data describing the patients’ prognosis enables their further analysis, with the aim of lowering the patients’ risk, by proposing optimum treatment. The main reason for creating the neural network model is not only to automate the process of establishing the risk rate of patients suffering from ischemic heart disease, but also to adapt it for practical use in clinical conditions. Our aim is to identify especially the specific group of risk-rate patients whose well-timed preventive care can improve the quality and prolong the length of their lives.The aim of the paper is to propose a patient-parameter structure, using which we could create a suitable model based on a self-taught neural network. The emphasis is placed on identifying key descriptive parameters (in the form of a reduction of the available descriptive parameters that are crucial for identifying the required patients, and simultaneously to achieve a portability of the model among individual clinical workplaces (availability of parameters.

  19. Political electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Price, Terence.

    1990-01-01

    This book is a non-technical exploration of the political and policy issues that have influenced the development of nuclear power. Part One describes the successes, failures, horse-trading, and infighting that make up nuclear power's history, taking nine counties as examples. Part Two reviews the main problems that now confront us, as seen in mid-June 1990; like all contemporary accounts, the book is unavoidably incomplete. However, by then it was possible to make provisional judgements about two very important recent influences: the political consequences of Chernobyl, and concerns about the greenhouse effect. The story that emerges is of a nuclear industry that has rarely been guilty of dereliction of duty, though it was undeniably complacent in not addressing sooner the causes of the public's entirely reasonable anxieties. The anti-nuclear lobby has been skilled in debate, and sometimes extraordinarily percipient; but less than fair in failing to acknowledge the industry's achievements and its willingness to learn from past mistakes. As for the politicians, the book contains many examples that show how the flames of controversy can be deliberately fanned when there are votes to be gained. The story has few heroes, but within the industry fewer villains than the public has been led to believe. (author)

  20. Street Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. Shapiro

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available I write from Prague, where, unlike in most urban formations, the main city street plays an iconic role; it references a history of political protest. However, before elaborating on the protest iconography of the Prague street, Vaclavske nam, I want to locate the ways in which the design of urban space is actualized in everyday life in the cities of the world. Three functions stand out; the first involves dwelling, the second seeing, and the third moving. With respect to the first function – dwelling – the design partitions and coordinates residential, commercial and leisure functions. At times these are organized to segregate different classes (Robert Moses’ redesign of much of New York stands out with respect to the segregation function. With respect to the second function – seeing – the design of urban space is allegiance-inspiring; it involves sight lines that afford urban dwellers and visitors views of iconic buildings and statues, which reference key founding moments in the past and/or authoritative political functions in the present (Here, L’Enfants design for Washington DC stands out as exemplary. Its manifest intention was to make the buildings housing executive, legislative and judicial functions visible from many vantage points. Rarely are the streets themselves iconic. Their dominant role is involved with the effectuation of movement. As for this third function: As Lewis Mumford famously points out, streets were once part of an asterisk design, radiating out from an exemplary, often spiritual center...

  1. [Sports medical aspects in cardiac risk stratification--heart rate variability and exercise capacity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banzer, W; Lucki, K; Bürklein, M; Rosenhagen, A; Vogt, L

    2006-12-01

    The present study investigates the association of the predicted CHD-risk (PROCAM) with the individual endurance capacity and heart rate variability (HRV) in a population-based sample of sedentary elderly. After stratification, in 57 men (48.1+/-9.5 yrs.) with an overall PROCAM-risk or =10% (50.8+/-5.6 points) cycle ergometries and short-term HRV analysis of time (RRMEAN, SDNN, RMSSD) and frequency domain parameters (LF, HF, TP, LF/HF) were conducted. Additionally the autonomic stress index (SI) was calculated. Nonparametric tests were used for statistical correlation analysis (Spearman rho) and group comparisons (Mann-Whitney). For endurance capacity [W/kg] (r=-0.469, pHRV analysis in risk stratification and outline the interrelation of a decreased exercise capacity and autonomic function with a raised individual 10-year cardiac risk. As an independent parameter of the vegetative regulatory state the stress index may contribute to an increased practical relevance of short-time HRV analysis.

  2. FACTORS THAT MAY DETERMINE THE RECOVERY RATE OF FINANCIAL RISK DAMAGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Diana Rosioru

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The information about the performance of a company, especially about its profitability, are useful to the consideration of potential changes of the economic resources, which the company might further control and the forecast of the ability to generate treasury flows by the existent resources. Also, based on the performance, judgments are expressed, aiming the efficiency whereof the company may use new resources. The performance of company may be influenced by its financial risk. The financial risk is defined as “variability of result indicators, under the incidence of financial structure of the company” . It is established by “the financing policy of the company, by equity or loans”. The financial risk results by the structure of the company shareholding or by the use method of financial instruments. The financial risks result by different sources, including changes of the interest rate, currency trades, expansions of lending operations, issuance of shares, as well as the use of derived financial instruments (IFD.

  3. Semiparametric accelerated failure time cure rate mixture models with competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sangbum; Zhu, Liang; Huang, Xuelin

    2018-01-15

    Modern medical treatments have substantially improved survival rates for many chronic diseases and have generated considerable interest in developing cure fraction models for survival data with a non-ignorable cured proportion. Statistical analysis of such data may be further complicated by competing risks that involve multiple types of endpoints. Regression analysis of competing risks is typically undertaken via a proportional hazards model adapted on cause-specific hazard or subdistribution hazard. In this article, we propose an alternative approach that treats competing events as distinct outcomes in a mixture. We consider semiparametric accelerated failure time models for the cause-conditional survival function that are combined through a multinomial logistic model within the cure-mixture modeling framework. The cure-mixture approach to competing risks provides a means to determine the overall effect of a treatment and insights into how this treatment modifies the components of the mixture in the presence of a cure fraction. The regression and nonparametric parameters are estimated by a nonparametric kernel-based maximum likelihood estimation method. Variance estimation is achieved through resampling methods for the kernel-smoothed likelihood function. Simulation studies show that the procedures work well in practical settings. Application to a sarcoma study demonstrates the use of the proposed method for competing risk data with a cure fraction. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. THE MANAGEMENT OF CREDIT RISK ACCORDING TO INTERNAL RATINGS- BASED APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BOLOCAN DRAGOS-MIHAIL

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The internal ratings based approach (IRB Approach was created as part of Basel II replacing the original Basle Accord of 1988 (Basle I in an effort to create a better framework for regulating bank capital. This paper covers the methodology and components of the IRB Approach used to determine capital requirements for credit risk. Such an approach, which relies heavily upon a banks internal assessment of its counterparties and exposures, can secure two key objectives consistent with those which support the wider review of The New Basel Capital Accord.. IRB approach should promote safety and soundness in the financial system and, consistent with providing incentive compatibility, that the structure and requirements of the IRB approach do not impinge upon or undermine banks well-established lending and credit risk management practices

  5. India in search of right Universal Health Coverage (UHC model: The risks of implementing UHC in the absence of political demand by the citizen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raman Kumar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Amid the global push for Universal Health Coverage (UHC, the agenda is being set for India′s health care. In the absence of a constitutional mandate, a national policy and citizen-led political demand for UHC, there exist specific risks in rushing toward its implementation in India. As the debate of UHC continues, the health-care delivery system in India is at cross roads. UHC in India could take two different trajectories. The first one takes India toward becoming "Global Bazaar" of morbidity and ill health, founded on the pillars of a vibrant rapidly multiplying healthcare industry. The other path takes India on a course of preventing wasteful, expensive health-care expenditure by maintaining healthy populations. A poor professional blood donor cannot become rich by selling his or her own blood beyond medically permissible levels; similarly, India cannot become a developed economy by  merely allowing exploitation of disease, illness, and morbidity of her citizen. It is the duty of the state and governments to protect individual citizen, population under consideration, as well as country′s economy from wasteful and potentially harmful expenditure incurred to address ill health. In the economic sense, any sensible UHC implementation mechanism would seek to regulate wasteful preventable health-care expenditure for the purpose of future economic stability and growth of the country. Due diligence toward safeguarding "public health in public interest," during the process of UHC implementation, is the need of the hour.

  6. India in search of right Universal Health Coverage (UHC) model: The risks of implementing UHC in the absence of political demand by the citizen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Raman; Roy, Pritam

    2016-01-01

    Amid the global push for Universal Health Coverage (UHC), the agenda is being set for India's health care. In the absence of a constitutional mandate, a national policy and citizen-led political demand for UHC, there exist specific risks in rushing toward its implementation in India. As the debate of UHC continues, the health-care delivery system in India is at cross roads. UHC in India could take two different trajectories. The first one takes India toward becoming "Global Bazaar" of morbidity and ill health, founded on the pillars of a vibrant rapidly multiplying healthcare industry. The other path takes India on a course of preventing wasteful, expensive health-care expenditure by maintaining healthy populations. A poor professional blood donor cannot become rich by selling his or her own blood beyond medically permissible levels; similarly, India cannot become a developed economy by merely allowing exploitation of disease, illness, and morbidity of her citizen. It is the duty of the state and governments to protect individual citizen, population under consideration, as well as country's economy from wasteful and potentially harmful expenditure incurred to address ill health. In the economic sense, any sensible UHC implementation mechanism would seek to regulate wasteful preventable health-care expenditure for the purpose of future economic stability and growth of the country. Due diligence toward safeguarding "public health in public interest," during the process of UHC implementation, is the need of the hour.

  7. Statistical properties of country risk ratings under oil price volatility: Evidence from selected oil-exporting countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Chang; Sun, Xiaolei; Chen, Jianming; Li, Jianping

    2016-01-01

    This paper focuses on the application of panel models for identification and analysis of influence of oil price volatility on statistical properties of country risk ratings which stem from uncertainty of macroeconomic fluctuations. Firstly, two statistical properties of country risk ratings, volatility clustering and asymmetrical revision were identified in a theoretical framework based on Cruces (2006). Secondly, considering the oil price volatility, numerical experiments were conducted based on extended models to test and verify specific properties of country risk ratings in selected oil-exporting countries. Empirical results suggest that properties of country risk remain comparatively steady despite oil price volatility. It is also found that the oil price volatility can obviously exaggerate the country risk volatility, as it happened during 2007–2009. Country clustering based on the properties of country risk ratings shows that the selected countries maintain a significant clustering tendency. These features are of great importance for estimating risk exposure of international trade and investments in oil export during extreme situations. - Highlights: •Relationship between oil price volatility and country risk is the focus. •An extended model based on Cruces (2006) is proposed. •Volatility clustering and asymmetrical revision of country risk ratings is explored. •Oil price volatility can obviously exaggerate properties of country risk volatility.

  8. On Value at Risk for Foreign Exchange Rates --- the Copula Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaworski, P.

    2006-11-01

    The aim of this paper is to determine the Value at Risk (VaR) of the portfolio consisting of long positions in foreign currencies on an emerging market. Basing on empirical data we restrict ourselves to the case when the tail parts of distributions of logarithmic returns of these assets follow the power laws and the lower tail of associated copula C follows the power law of degree 1. We will illustrate the practical usefulness of this approach by the analysis of the exchange rates of EUR and CHF at the Polish forex market.

  9. Dependence and risk assessment for oil prices and exchange rate portfolios: A wavelet based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania

    2015-10-01

    In this article, we propose a wavelet-based approach to accommodate the stylized facts and complex structure of financial data, caused by frequent and abrupt changes of markets and noises. Specifically, we show how the combination of both continuous and discrete wavelet transforms with traditional financial models helps improve portfolio's market risk assessment. In the empirical stage, three wavelet-based models (wavelet-EGARCH with dynamic conditional correlations, wavelet-copula, and wavelet-extreme value) are considered and applied to crude oil price and US dollar exchange rate data. Our findings show that the wavelet-based approach provides an effective and powerful tool for detecting extreme moments and improving the accuracy of VaR and Expected Shortfall estimates of oil-exchange rate portfolios after noise is removed from the original data.

  10. NDT method in determining the rate of corrosion applicable to risk based inspection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohamed Hairul Hasmoni; Mohamad Pauzi Ismail; Ab Razak Hamzah

    2004-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem in oil and gas industries, refineries and chemical process plants as the equipment is often exposed to corrosive environments or elevated temperature. Important equipment need to operate safely and reliably to avoid injuries to personnel and the public, and to prevent loss time and cost incurred due to loss of production and shutdown. The paper assess the approach in evaluating the technique of non-destructive testing (NDT) using Ultrasonic Testing (UT) in determining the rate of corrosion and remaining life of equipment applicable to Risk Based Inspection (RBI). Methods in determining the corrosion rate are presented using analytical method. Examples and data from MINT chiller water pipeline are presented to illustrate the application of these methods. (Author)

  11. Risk factors for breast cancer in a population with high incidence rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wrensch, Margaret; Peskin-Mentzer, Roni; Quesenberry, Charles P Jr; Souders-Mason, Virginia; Spence, Linda; Suzuki, Marisa; Gould, Mary; Chew, Terri; Farren, Georgianna; Barlow, Janice; Belli, Flavia; Clarke, Christina; Erdmann, Christine A; Lee, Marion; Moghadassi, Michelle

    2003-01-01

    This report examines generally recognized breast cancer risk factors and years of residence in Marin County, California, an area with high breast cancer incidence and mortality rates. Eligible women who were residents of Marin County diagnosed with breast cancer in 1997–99 and women without breast cancer obtained through random digit dialing, frequency-matched by cases' age at diagnosis and ethnicity, participated in either full in-person or abbreviated telephone interviews. In multivariate analyses, 285 cases were statistically significantly more likely than 286 controls to report being premenopausal, never to have used birth control pills, a lower highest lifetime body mass index, four or more mammograms in 1990–94, beginning drinking after the age of 21, on average drinking two or more drinks per day, the highest quartile of pack-years of cigarette smoking and having been raised in an organized religion. Cases and controls did not significantly differ with regard to having a first-degree relative with breast cancer, a history of benign breast biopsy, previous radiation treatment, age at menarche, parity, use of hormone replacement therapy, age of first living in Marin County, or total years lived in Marin County. Results for several factors differed for women aged under 50 years or 50 years and over. Despite similar distributions of several known breast cancer risk factors, case-control differences in alcohol consumption suggest that risk in this high-risk population might be modifiable. Intensive study of this or other areas of similarly high incidence might reveal other important risk factors proximate to diagnosis

  12. Post-operative high dose rate brachytherapy in patients with low to intermediate risk endometrial cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pearcey, R.G.; Petereit, D.G.

    2000-01-01

    This paper investigates the outcome using different dose/fractionation schedules in high dose rate (HDR) post-operative vaginal vault radiotherapy in patients with low to intermediate risk endometrial cancer. The world literature was reviewed and thirteen series were analyzed representing 1800 cases. A total of 12 vaginal vault recurrences were identified representing an overall vaginal control rate of 99.3%. A wide range of dose fractionation schedules and techniques have been reported. In order to analyze a dose response relationship for tumor control and complications, the biologically effective doses to the tumor and late responding tissues were calculated using the linear quadratic model. A threshold was identified for complications, but not vaginal control. While dose fractionation schedules that delivered a biologically effective dose to the late responding tissues in excess of 100 Gy 3 (LQED = 60 Gy) predicted for late complications, dose fractionation schedules that delivered a modest dose to the vaginal surface (50 Gy 10 or LQED = 30 Gy) appeared tumoricidal with vaginal control rates of at least 98%. By using convenient, modest dose fractionation schedules, HDR vaginal vault - brachytherapy yields very high local control and extremely low morbidity rates. (author)

  13. Rates and risk factors of unplanned 30-day readmission following general and thoracic pediatric surgical procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polites, Stephanie F; Potter, Donald D; Glasgow, Amy E; Klinkner, Denise B; Moir, Christopher R; Ishitani, Michael B; Habermann, Elizabeth B

    2017-08-01

    Postoperative unplanned readmissions are costly and decrease patient satisfaction; however, little is known about this complication in pediatric surgery. The purpose of this study was to determine rates and predictors of unplanned readmission in a multi-institutional cohort of pediatric surgical patients. Unplanned 30-day readmissions following general and thoracic surgical procedures in children readmission per 30 person-days were determined to account for varied postoperative length of stay (pLOS). Patients were randomly divided into 70% derivation and 30% validation cohorts which were used for creation and validation of a risk model for readmission. Readmission occurred in 1948 (3.6%) of 54,870 children for a rate of 4.3% per 30 person-days. Adjusted predictors of readmission included hepatobiliary procedures, increased wound class, operative duration, complications, and pLOS. The predictive model discriminated well in the derivation and validation cohorts (AUROC 0.710 and 0.701) with good calibration between observed and expected readmission events in both cohorts (p>.05). Unplanned readmission occurs less frequently in pediatric surgery than what is described in adults, calling into question its use as a quality indicator in this population. Factors that predict readmission including type of procedure, complications, and pLOS can be used to identify at-risk children and develop prevention strategies. III. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Longitudinal dating violence victimization among Latino teens: Rates, risk factors, and cultural influences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabina, Chiara; Cuevas, Carlos A; Cotignola-Pickens, Heather M

    2016-02-01

    This study uses data from two waves of the Dating Violence Among Latino Adolescents (DAVILA) study and focuses on the 1) rates of dating violence victimization by gender, 2) risk of experiencing dating violence victimization over time, 3) association of dating violence victimization with other forms of victimization, and 4) association of immigrant status, acculturation, and familial support with dating violence victimization over time. A total of 547 Latino adolescents, from across the USA, aged 12-18 at Wave 1 participated in both waves of the study. Rates of dating violence were around 19% across waves. Dating violence at Wave 1 and non-dating violence victimization were associated with an elevated risk of dating violence during Wave 2. Cultural factors did not distinguish between dating violence trajectories, except for immigrant status and familial support being associated with no dating violence victimization. Overall, dating violence affects a large number of Latino teens and tends to continue over time. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Recurrent rates and risk factors associated with recurrent painful bullous keratopathy after primary phototherapeutic keratectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kasetsuwan N

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Ngamjit Kasetsuwan, Kanokorn Sakpisuttivanit, Usanee Reinprayoon, Vilavun Puangsricharern Department of Ophthalmology, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University and King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital, Bangkok, Thailand Objective: To assess the recurrent rate, mean survival time, and risk factors associated with recurrent painful bullous keratopathy (BK after primary treatment with phototherapeutic keratectomy.Methods: Medical records from 72 patients (72 eyes who had phototherapeutic keratectomy for painful BK were evaluated. Data for sex, age, duration of BK, associated ocular and systemic diseases (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, ischemic heart disease, asthma, dyslipidemia, and rheumatoid arthritis, frequency and degree of pain (grade 1–3, visual acuity, corneal thickness, intraocular pressure, and laser setting were extracted and analyzed.Results: The mean age of the patients was 64.2±11.4 years. The mean preoperative duration of BK was 15.0±11.0 months. Most patients had pseudophakic BK (69.40%. Majority of the cases had grade 3 degree of pain (48.60%. Glaucoma and hypertension were markedly found among these patients (51.40% and 19.40%, respectively. Preoperative mean intraocular pressure and corneal thickness were 13.70±4.95 mmHg and 734.1±83.80 µm, respectively. The mean laser diameter and depth were 8.36±1.22 mm and 38.89±8.81 µm, respectively. Systemic disease was significantly associated with the risk for developing recurrent painful BK (P=0.022, hazard ratio [HR] 1.673, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08–2.58. The overall recurrent rate was 51%. The average duration time of recurrent painful BK was 17.3±12.9 months (range 1–50 months. The median survival time before recurrence was 29.0±6.6 months.Conclusion: Systemic disease was found to be the only risk factor significantly associated with the development of recurrent painful BK. Low recurrent rate and long mean survival time showed that phototherapeutic

  16. Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno

    2011-01-01

    Most economic studies of forest decision making under risk assume a fixed interest rate. This paper investigated some implications of this stochastic nature of interest rates. Markov decision process (MDP) models, used previously to integrate stochastic stand growth and prices, can be extended to include variable interest rates as well. This method was applied to...

  17. Teaching Exchange Rate Risk Using London's Gherkin Building: How Investors Were in (and out of) a Pickle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Adam T.; Sackley, William H.; Watson, Ethan D.

    2017-01-01

    In this teaching note, the authors use an iconic London building, the Gherkin, as a motivation to understand exchange rates, cross exchange rates, and unhedged exchange rate risk. The famous tower was constructed in the early 2000s by Swiss Re, an insurance company, and then sold to investors as part of a sale-leaseback deal in early 2007.…

  18. INCLUDING INTANGIBLE ASSETS IN RATES TO ESTIMATE THE RISK OF BANKRUPTCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenia IANCU

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to show that an economic entity’s intangible assets play an important role in predicting the risk of bankruptcy of the company and at the same time in its evolution. Based on benchmarking and on appeal to the experience and intuition of available human expert it can be shaped a credible model and, based on this model can be projected the future course of a business organization. Among other issues, we note that the intangible assets of a company can and should be entered into the equation for estimating the risk of bankruptcy whether it avails or not to artificial intelligence (AI techniques to solve this problem (values lead to bankruptcy and the graphics functions differ majorly when the analysis includes the Rhine rate which takes into account intangibles of firms. From the structure of the paper we can see that whatever the type of model used in predicting the risk of bankruptcy at either classic or using artificial intelligence techniques (AI a leading role in the evolution and the value of the company represents intangible.

  19. Observer-rated depression in long-term care: frequency and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCusker, Jane; Cole, Martin G; Voyer, Philippe; Monette, Johanne; Champoux, Nathalie; Ciampi, Antonio; Vu, Minh; Dyachenko, Alina; Belzile, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were: (1) to describe the prevalence and 6-month incidence of observer-rated depression in residents age 65 and over of long-term care (LTC) facilities; (2) to describe risk factors for depression, at baseline and over time. A multisite, prospective observational study was conducted in residents aged 65 and over of 7 LTC facilities. The Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia (CSDD) was completed by nurses monthly for 6 months. We measured demographic, medical, and functional factors at baseline and monthly intervals, using data from research assessments, nurse interviews, and chart reviews. 274 residents were recruited and completed baseline depression assessments. The prevalence of depression (CSDD score of 6+) was 19.0%. The incidence of depression among those without prevalent depression was 73.3 per 100 person-years. A delirium diagnosis, pain, and diabetes were independently associated with prevalent depression. CSDD score at baseline and development of severe cognitive impairment at follow-up were independent risk factors for incident depression. A diagnosis of delirium and uncorrected visual impairment at follow-up occurred concurrently with incident depression. The results of this study have implications for the detection and prevention of depression in LTC. Delirium diagnosis, pain and diabetes at baseline were associated with prevalent depression; depression symptoms at baseline and development of severe cognitive impairment at follow-up were risk factors for incident depression. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. THE APPLICATION OF RISK BASED BANK RATING ON BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION OF BANKS IN INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evi Sistiyarini

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The increase of banking products and services which is more complex will increase the risk to the banks. Therefore, to anticipate the rise of financial difficulties in a bank, the early warning system. This study aimed to find the influence RBBR (Risk Based Bank Rating ratio’s to predict bankruptcy of conventional Banks in Indonesia. Ratio of RBBR consisted of risk profile, Good Corporate Governance, profitability and capital. Independent variables used were NPL, PDN, LDR, GCG, ROA and NIM, and CAR. Dependent variable was bank bankruptcy using dummy variable. The population of this study was all of the conventional banks in Indonesia. The data was a secondary data taken form financial report of conventional bank 2011-2015. Technical sampling used was a purposive sampling method with some criteria. The analysis of this study used logistic regression.The result of the study showed that NPL, PDN, LDR, GCG, ROA and NIM, and CARhad no significant influence to bankruptcy of the bank.

  1. Attenuated Heart Rate Recovery After Exercise Testing and Risk of Incident Hypertension in Men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jae, Sae Young; Bunsawat, Kanokwan; Fadel, Paul J; Fernhall, Bo; Choi, Yoon-Ho; Park, Jeong Bae; Franklin, Barry A

    2016-09-01

    Although attenuated heart rate recovery (HRR) and reduced heart rate (HR) reserve to maximal exercise testing are associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes, their relation to incident hypertension in healthy normotensive populations is unclear. We examined the hypothesis that both attenuated HRR and reduced HR reserve to exercise testing are associated with incident hypertension in men. A total of 1,855 participants were selected comprising of healthy, initially normotensive men who underwent peak or symptom-limited treadmill testing at baseline. HRR was calculated as the difference between peak HR during exercise testing and the HR at 2 minutes after exercise cessation. HR reserve was calculated as the percentage of HR reserve (peak HR - resting HR)/(220 - age - resting HR) × 100. During an average 4-year follow-up, 179 (9.6%) men developed hypertension. Incident hypertension was associated with HRR quartiles (Q1 (57 bpm) 8.3%; P = 0.05 for trend). The relative risk (RR) of the incident hypertension in the slowest HRR quartile vs. the fastest HRR quartile was 1.78 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.14-2.78) after adjustment for confounders. Every 1 bpm increment in HRR was associated with a 2% (RR 0.98, 95% CI: 0.97-0.99) lower risk of incident hypertension after adjusting for potential confounders. In contrast, reduced HR reserve did not predict the risk of incident hypertension. Slow HRR after exercise testing is independently associated with the development of hypertension in healthy normotensive men. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2016. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Rates of fetal polydrug exposures in methadone-maintained pregnancies from a high-risk population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaitlyn Delano

    Full Text Available Methadone maintenance treatment (MMT is the standard of care during pregnancy for opioid-dependency, showing efficacy in improving prenatal care and reducing risk of relapse. By design, however, MMT is only intended to prevent withdrawal thus facilitating cognitive behavioural interventions. In order to maximize the benefits of MMT, it is essential that methadone is both properly prescribed and that additional addiction treatment is concurrently administered. This study aims to determine the effectiveness of MMT engagement in high-risk pregnant women in reducing polydrug use by objective laboratory examination of neonatal meconium.Over a 29-month period, the Motherisk Laboratory at the Hospital for Sick Children in Toronto analyzed meconium samples as per request by social services and hospitals for drugs of abuse.Of the 904 meconium samples received, 273 were tested for methadone with 164 positive and 109 negative for methadone. Almost half of the methadone positive samples (46.34% were also positive for at least one other opioid compound, which did not differ statistically from the methadone-negative control samples (46.79%; Chi square test, p=0.94. No differences were found between the methadone positive and negative groups in rates of concurrent amphetamines, cocaine, cannabis, and alcohol use indicating a similar risk of polydrug use between pregnant women taking or not taking methadone in this population.The high rates of additional opioid and other drug use in the MMT group, suggest that MMT is failing this population of patients. It is possible that methadone doses during pregnancy are not appropriately adjusted for changes in pharmacokinetic parameters (e.g. blood volume, renal function during the second and third trimesters. This may result in sub-therapeutic dosing creating withdrawal symptoms leading to additional substance use. Alternatively, these results may be demonstrating a substantial lack in delivery of addiction support

  3. How does political instability affect economic growth?

    OpenAIRE

    Aisen, Ari; Veiga, Francisco José

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the effects of political instability on economic growth. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models on a sample covering up to 169 countries, and 5-year periods from 1960 to 2004, we find that higher degrees of political instability are associated with lower growth rates of GDP per capita. Regarding the channels of transmission, we find that political instability adversely affects growth by lowering the rates of pr...

  4. Rates and risks for prolonged grief disorder in a sample of orphaned and widowed genocide survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaal, Susanne; Jacob, Nadja; Dusingizemungu, Jean-Pierre; Elbert, Thomas

    2010-07-06

    The concept of Prolonged Grief Disorder (PGD) has been defined in recent years by Prigerson and co-workers, who have developed and empirically tested consensus and diagnostic criteria for PGD. Using these most recent criteria defining PGD, the aim of this study was to determine rates of and risks for PGD in survivors of the 1994 Rwandan genocide who had lost a parent and/or the husband before, during or after the 1994 events. The PG-13 was administered to 206 orphans or half orphans and to 194 widows. A regression analysis was carried out to examine risk factors of PGD. 8.0% (n = 32) of the sample met criteria for PGD with an average of 12 years post-loss. All but one person had faced multiple losses and the majority indicated that their grief-related loss was due to violent death (70%). Grief was predicted mainly by time since the loss, by the violent nature of the loss, the severity of symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and the importance given to religious/spiritual beliefs. By contrast, gender, age at the time of bereavement, bereavement status (widow versus orphan), the number of different types of losses reported and participation in the funeral ceremony did not impact the severity of prolonged grief reactions. A significant portion of the interviewed sample continues to experience grief over interpersonal losses and unresolved grief may endure over time if not addressed by clinical intervention. Severity of grief reactions may be associated with a set of distinct risk factors. Subjects who lose someone through violent death seem to be at special risk as they have to deal with the loss experience as such and the traumatic aspects of the loss. Symptoms of PTSD may hinder the completion of the mourning process. Religious beliefs may facilitate the mourning process and help to find meaning in the loss. These aspects need to be considered in the treatment of PGD.

  5. Self-rated health among Greenlandic Inuit and Norwegian Sami adolescents: associated risk and protective correlates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spein, Anna Rita; Pedersen, Cecilia Petrine; Silviken, Anne Cathrine; Melhus, Marita; Kvernmo, Siv Eli; Bjerregaard, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Self-rated health (SRH) and associated risk and protective correlates were investigated among two indigenous adolescent populations, Greenlandic Inuit and Norwegian Sami. Cross-sectional data were collected from "Well-being among Youth in Greenland" (WBYG) and "The Norwegian Arctic Adolescent Health Study" (NAAHS), conducted during 2003-2005 and comprising 10th and 11th graders, 378 Inuit and 350 Sami. SRH was assessed by one single item, using a 4-point and 5-point scale for NAAHS and WBYG, respectively. Logistic regressions were performed separately for each indigenous group using a dichotomous measure with "very good" (NAAHS) and "very good/good" (WBYG) as reference categories. We simultaneously controlled for various socio-demographics, risk correlates (drinking, smoking, violence and suicidal behaviour) and protective correlates (physical activity, well-being in school, number of close friends and adolescent-parent relationship). A majority of both Inuit (62%) and Sami (89%) youth reported "good" or "very good" SRH. The proportion of "poor/fair/not so good" SRH was three times higher among Inuit than Sami (38% vs. 11%, p≤0.001). Significantly more Inuit females than males reported "poor/fair" SRH (44% vs. 29%, p≤0.05), while no gender differences occurred among Sami (12% vs. 9%, p≤0.08). In both indigenous groups, suicidal thoughts (risk) and physical activity (protective) were associated with poor and good SRH, respectively. In accordance with other studies of indigenous adolescents, suicidal thoughts were strongly associated with poorer SRH among Sami and Inuit. The Inuit-Sami differences in SRH could partly be due to higher "risk" and lower "protective" correlates among Inuit than Sami. The positive impact of physical activity on SRH needs to be targeted in future intervention programs.

  6. Coronary artery bypass graft readmission rates and risk factors - A retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, T Robert; White, Robert S; Gaber-Baylis, Licia K; Turnbull, Zachary A; Rong, Lisa Q

    2018-04-17

    Hospital readmissions contribute substantially to the overall healthcare cost. Coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) is of particular interest due to its relatively high short-term readmission rates and mean hospital charges. A retrospective review was performed on 2007-2011 data from California, Florida, and New York from the State Inpatient Databases, Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project. All patients ≥18 years of age who underwent isolated CABG and met inclusion/exclusion criteria were included. Insurance status was categorized by Medicaid, Medicare, Private Insurance, Uninsured, and Other. Primary outcomes were unadjusted rates and adjusted odds of readmission at 30- and 90-days. Secondary outcomes included diagnosis at readmission. A total of 177,229 were included in the analyses after assessing for exclusion criteria. Overall 30-day readmission rate was 16.1%; rates were highest within Medicare (18.4%) and Medicaid (20.2%) groups and lowest in the private insurance group (11.7%; p readmission diagnoses were atrial fibrillation (26.7%), pleural effusion (22.5%), and wound infection (17.7%). Medicare patients had the highest proportion of readmissions with atrial fibrillation (31.7%) and pleural effusions (23.3%), while Medicaid patients had the highest proportion of readmissions with wound infections (21.8%). Similar results were found at 90 days. Risk factors for readmission included non-private insurance, age, female sex, non-white race, low median household income, non-routine discharge, length of stay, and certain comorbidities and complications. CABG readmission rates remain high and are associated with insurance status and racial and socioeconomic markers. Further investigation is necessary to better delineate the underlying factors that relate racial and socioeconomic disparities to CABG readmissions. Understanding these factors will be key to improving healthcare outcomes and expenditure. Copyright © 2018 IJS Publishing Group Ltd. Published by

  7. The international politics of geoengineering:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corry, Olaf

    2017-01-01

    the politics of climate change dramatically, yet in evaluating whether they might ultimately reduce climate risks, their political and security implications have so far not been given adequate prominence. This article puts forward what it calls the ‘security hazard’ and argues that this could be a crucial...... factor in determining whether a technology is able, ultimately, to reduce climate risks. Ideas about global governance of geoengineering rely on heroic assumptions about state rationality and a generally pacific international system. Moreover, if in a climate engineered world weather events become...

  8. Pregnancy risk assessment monitoring system in Ireland: methods and response rates

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O’Keeffe, Linda M.

    2014-06-01

    To describe response rates and characteristics associated with response to the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System study in Ireland (PRAMS Ireland). Using hospital discharge records of live births at a large, urban, obstetric hospital, a sampling frame of approximately 2,400 mother-infant pairs were used to alternately sample 1,200 women. Mothers’ information including name, address, parity, age and infant characteristics such as sex and gestational age at delivery were extracted from records. Modes of contact included an invitation letter with option to opt out of the study, three mail surveys, a reminder letter and text message reminder for remaining non-respondents. Sixty-one per cent of women responded to the PRAMS Ireland survey over a 133 day response period. Women aged <30, single women, multiparous women and women with a preterm delivery were less likely to respond. Women participating in PRAMS Ireland were similar to the national birth profile in 2011 which had a mean age of 32, were 40 % primiparous, 33 % single or never married and had a 28 % caesarean section rate. Survey and protocol changes are required to increase response rates above recommended Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) thresholds of 65 % within the recommended 90 day data collection cycle. Additional efforts such as stratification and over-sampling are required to increase representativeness among hard to reach groups such as younger, single and multiparous women before expanding the project to an ongoing, national surveillance system in Ireland.

  9. Water requirements and drinking rates of homing pigeons: A consideration for exposure risk of migratory birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, Cristina R; Moye, John K; Pritsos, Chris A

    2017-09-01

    Access to water along a bird's migratory flyway is essential during the vital process of migration. Because of the scarcity of water in some environments, there is potential for migratory birds to encounter and drink from contaminated bodies of water. Ingestion of contaminated water may cause injury and compromise flying ability, leading to a disruption of migration. To determine injury to birds from potential exposure, it is essential to know not only the concentration of a given contaminant in the water but also the quantity and rate of water consumption by the birds. Homing pigeons (Columba livia) were used in a series of experiments to determine differences in drinking behavior after various flights and after periods of resting. Results from the present study demonstrate that homing pigeons' water consumption is dramatically different when assessed according to activity, flight distance, and time elapsed after flight. This suggests that the drinking rates of birds during migration are extremely important and much greater than estimated using traditional exposure assessment procedures. Thus, exposure to contaminants via drinking water may be greatly underestimated, and the rate of water consumption should be considered when estimating potential exposure risk to avian species. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:870-876. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  10. Political Crowdfunding as concept of political technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeria GOLKA

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Political crowdfunding is analyzed as a new concept of political science. The justification of use of crowdfunding technologies not only in business but also in the political sphere is argued. The efficiency, availability, low cost of the new forms of political investment through the development of information and communication technologies are noted. The typology of political crowdfunding is proposed. Political projects promoting domestic crowdfunding platforms are analyzed. Attention is drawn to the problem of legal gaps in the regulation of crowdfunding is studied. The foreign experience of organizing public support (mikroinvestment political projects. It is emphasized that in terms of political theory crowdfunding is based on solidarity. The crowdfunding properties of transforming social capital accumulated by social networks into financial capital are mentioned.

  11. Penilaian Tingkat Kesehatan Bank Dengan Menggunakan Pendekatan Risiko (Risk-Based Bank Rating

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masnawati .

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This  study  aimed  to  analyze  techniques  of  the  bank’s  health  assessment  and determine  which  strategies  should  be  done  in  order  to  improve  the  health  of the bank. The method used is the approach of Risk (Risk Based-Bank Rating in accordance with Bank Indonesia Regulation on Rating Bank that PBI Number: 13/1/PBI/2011  which  entered  into  force  on  January  1,  2012.  Bank  health assessment  performed  using  four  (4  factors:  Risk  Profile,  Good  Corporate Governance (GCG, Earning, and Capital. Object  of  this  study  is  PT.  Bank  Pembangunan  Daerah  Kalimantan  Selatan period  2012.  The  results  showed  that  the  health  of  banks  in  PT.  Bank Pembangunan  Daerah  Kalimantan  Selatan  getting  ranked  2,  meaning  can be  categorized  good.  Strategies  to  improve  the  health  value  of  a  bank  is  to improve aspects of Earnings and Capital. Strategis Steps that must to increase credit expansion, improve the quality and quantity of human resources, product innovation, and increase fee-based income. Keywords: Healthy  banks,  Risk  Profile,  Good  Corporate  Governance  (GCG,  Earnings, Capital

  12. Psychedelics, Personality and Political Perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nour, Matthew M; Evans, Lisa; Carhart-Harris, Robin L

    2017-01-01

    The psychedelic experience (including psychedelic-induced ego dissolution) can effect lasting change in a person's attitudes and beliefs. Here, we aimed to investigate the association between naturalistic psychedelic use and personality, political perspectives, and nature relatedness using an anonymous internet survey. Participants (N = 893) provided information about their naturalistic psychedelic, cocaine, and alcohol use, and answered questions relating to personality traits of openness and conscientiousness (Ten-Item Personality Inventory), nature relatedness (Nature-Relatedness Scale), and political attitudes (one-item liberalism-conservatism measure and five-item libertarian-authoritarian measure). Participants also rated the degree of ego dissolution experienced during their "most intense" recalled psychedelic experience (Ego-Dissolution Inventory). Multivariate linear regression analysis indicated that lifetime psychedelic use (but not lifetime cocaine use or weekly alcohol consumption) positively predicted liberal political views, openness and nature relatedness, and negatively predicted authoritarian political views, after accounting for potential confounding variables. Ego dissolution experienced during a participant's "most intense" psychedelic experience positively predicted liberal political views, openness and nature relatedness, and negatively predicted authoritarian political views. Further work is needed to investigate the nature of the relationship between the peak psychedelic experience and openness to new experiences, egalitarian political views, and concern for the environment.

  13. Political Awakenings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Franziska Brühwiler

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Le Complot contre l’Amérique de Philip Roth décrit l’initiation politique de ses deux protagonistes, le narrateur Philip et son frère aîné, Sanford. Tandis que ce dernier passe par un processus initiatique quasi classique — il se déroule conformément au schéma tripartite de van Gennep — l’apogée de l’initiation de Philip est marquée par douleur et blessure. Toutefois, tous les deux connaissent seulement une initiation partielle, car le premier doit d’abord admettre ses erreurs tandis que le second va devoir apprendre, non seulement à remettre en cause l’autorité, mais également à développer ses idées de façon indépendante.Philip Roth’s The Plot Against America traces the political awakening of its two child protagonists, the narrator Philip and his elder brother Sanford. While the latter undergoes an initiation process nearly in accordance with the classical tripartite scheme as coined by van Gennep, the height of Philip’s initiation process is marked by physical pain and injury. However, both experience only a partial initiation, since the elder brother will have to recognize his errors and the younger one will first have to learn how to go beyond the mere questioning of authority.

  14. Capital flight and political risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lensink, Robert; Hermes, Niels; Murinde, Victor

    1998-01-01

    This paper investigates asymmetric effects of monetary policy over the business cycle. A two-state Markov Switching Model is employed to model both recessions and expansions. For the United States and Germany, strong evidence is found that monetary policy is more effective in a recession than during

  15. Science, politics, and health in the brave new world of pharmaceutical carcinogenic risk assessment: technical progress or cycle of regulatory capture?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abraham, John; Ballinger, Rachel

    2012-10-01

    The carcinogenicity (cancer-inducing potential) of pharmaceuticals is an important risk factor for health when considering whether thousands of patients on drug trials or millions/billions of consumers in the marketplace should be exposed to a new drug. Drawing on fieldwork involving over 50 interviews and documentary research spanning 2002-2010 in Europe and the US, and on regulatory capture theory, this article investigates how the techno-regulatory standards for carcinogenicity testing of pharmaceuticals have altered since 1998. It focuses on the replacement of long-term carcinogenicity tests in rodents (especially mice) with shorter-term tests involving genetically-engineered mice (GEM). Based on evidence regarding financial/organizational control, methodological design, and interpretation of the validation and application of these new GEM tests, it is argued that regulatory agencies permitted the drug industry to shape such validation and application in ways that prioritized commercial interests over the need to protect public health. Boundary-work enabling industry scientists to define some standards of public-health policy facilitated such capture. However, as the scientific credibility of GEM tests as tools to protect public health by screening out carcinogens became inescapably problematic, a regulatory resurgence, impelled by reputational concerns, exercised more control over industry's construction and use of the tests, The extensive problems with GEM tests as public-health protective regulatory science raises the spectre that alterations to pharmaceutical carcinogenicity-testing standards since the 1990s may have been boundary-work in which the political project of decreasing the chance that companies' products are defined as carcinogenic has masqueraded as techno-science. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  16. A multi-region assessment of population rates of cardiac catheterization and yield of high-risk coronary artery disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clement Fiona M

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is variation in cardiac catheterization utilization across jurisdictions. Previous work from Alberta, Canada, showed no evidence of a plateau in the yield of high-risk disease at cardiac catheterization rates as high as 600 per 100,000 population suggesting that the optimal rate is higher. This work aims 1 To determine if a previously demonstrated linear relationship between the yield of high-risk coronary disease and cardiac catheterization rates persists with contemporary data and 2 to explore whether the linear relationship exists in other jurisdictions. Methods Detailed clinical information on all patients undergoing cardiac catheterization in 3 Canadian provinces was available through the Alberta Provincial Project for Outcomes Assessment in Coronary Heart (APPROACH disease and partner initiatives in British Columbia and Nova Scotia. Population rates of catheterization and high-risk coronary disease detection for each health region in these three provinces, and age-adjusted rates produced using direct standardization. A mixed effects regression analysis was performed to assess the relationship between catheterization rate and high-risk coronary disease detection. Results In the contemporary Alberta data, we found a linear relationship between the population catheterization rate and the high-risk yield. Although the yield was slightly less in time period 2 (2002-2006 than in time period 1(1995-2001, there was no statistical evidence of a plateau. The linear relationship between catheterization rate and high-risk yield was similarly demonstrated in British Columbia and Nova Scotia and appears to extend, without a plateau in yield, to rates over 800 procedures per 100,000 population. Conclusions Our study demonstrates a consistent finding, over time and across jurisdictions, of linearly increasing detection of high-risk CAD as population rates of cardiac catheterization increase. This internationally-relevant finding

  17. Effects of Political Knowledge on Political Tolerance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, John Powell

    2018-01-01

    Sexual orientation continues to be an explosive issue in American classrooms. Increasing the political knowledge of students can reduce the volatility of this explosive issue by increasing tolerance toward the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender community. This relationship between political knowledge and political tolerance has been…

  18. Heart rate variability and increased risk for developing type 2 diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penčić-Popović, Biljana; Ćelić, Vera; Ćosić, Zoran; Pavlović-Kleut, Milena; Čaparević, Zorica; Kostić, Nada; Milovanović, Branislav; Šljivić, Aleksandra; Stojčevski, Biljana

    2014-12-01

    To our knowledge there are no data about the relationship between elevated risk for developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2) and altered cardiac autonomic function. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between heart rate variability (HRV) and slightly increased risk for DM2. We evaluated 69 subjects (50.0 ± 14.4 years; 30 male) without DM2, coronary artery disease and arrhythmias. The subjects were divided into two groups according to the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC): group I (n = 39) included subjects with 12 > FINDRISC ≥ 7; group II (n = 30) subjects with FINDRISC power--TP (7.2 ± 0.3 ln/ms2 vs 7.3 ± 0.3 ln/ms2; p = 0.029), and low frequency--LF (5.9 ± 0.4 ln/ms2 vs 6.3 ± 0.6 In/ms2; p = 0.006), over entire 24 h, as well as TP (7.1 ± 0.3 In/ms2 vs 7.3 ± 0.3 In/ms2; p = 0.004), very low frequency (6.2 ± 0.2 In/ms2 vs 6.3 ± 0.2 In/ms2; p = 0.030), LF (5.9 ± 0.4 In/ms2 vs 6.2 ± 0.3 In/ms2; p = 0.000) and high frequency (5.7 ± 0.4 In/ms2 vs 5.9 ± 0.4 In/ms2; p = 0.011) during the daytime compared to the group II. Nocturnal frequency domain analysis was similar between the groups. The low diurnal frequency was independently related to elevated risk for diabetes mellitus (beta = -0,331; p = 0.006). The obtained results suggest that even slightly elevated risk for developing diabetes mellitus may be related to impaired HRV.

  19. The time to ruin in some additive risk models with random premium rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Martin

    2012-01-01

    to have a Laplace transform that is a rational function. The main results describe the joint Laplace transform of the time at ruin and the deficit at ruin. The method used consists in finding partial eigenfunctions for the generator of the joint process consisting of the Markov process and the accumulated...... of the present value of the Markov process. The intensity for a claim to occur is another nonnegative function of the value of the Markov process. The claim arrival times are the regeneration times for the Markov process. Two-sided claims are allowed, but the distribution of the positive claims is assumed......The risk processes considered in this paper are generated by an underlying Markov process with a regenerative structure and an independent sequence of independent and identically distributed claims. Between the arrivals of claims the process increases at a rate which is a nonnegative function...

  20. About green political parties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orlović Slobodan P.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work the author refers to some legal and political questions in connection with green political parties. Those questions cover: the ideology of green political parties, their number and influence, both in general and in Serbia. The first part of work is generally speaking about political parties - their definition, ideology, role and action. Main thesis in this work is that green political parties, by their appearance, were something new on the political scene. But quickly, because of objective and subjective reasons, they were changing original ideas and were beginning to resemble to all other political parties. In this way, they lost their vanguard and political alternativeness.

  1. Breast Cancer-Related Arm Lymphedema: Incidence Rates, Diagnostic Techniques, Optimal Management and Risk Reduction Strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shah, Chirag [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States); Vicini, Frank A., E-mail: fvicini@beaumont.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States)

    2011-11-15

    As more women survive breast cancer, long-term toxicities affecting their quality of life, such as lymphedema (LE) of the arm, gain importance. Although numerous studies have attempted to determine incidence rates, identify optimal diagnostic tests, enumerate efficacious treatment strategies and outline risk reduction guidelines for breast cancer-related lymphedema (BCRL), few groups have consistently agreed on any of these issues. As a result, standardized recommendations are still lacking. This review will summarize the latest data addressing all of these concerns in order to provide patients and health care providers with optimal, contemporary recommendations. Published incidence rates for BCRL vary substantially with a range of 2-65% based on surgical technique, axillary sampling method, radiation therapy fields treated, and the use of chemotherapy. Newer clinical assessment tools can potentially identify BCRL in patients with subclinical disease with prospective data suggesting that early diagnosis and management with noninvasive therapy can lead to excellent outcomes. Multiple therapies exist with treatments defined by the severity of BCRL present. Currently, the standard of care for BCRL in patients with significant LE is complex decongestive physiotherapy (CDP). Contemporary data also suggest that a multidisciplinary approach to the management of BCRL should begin prior to definitive treatment for breast cancer employing patient-specific surgical, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy paradigms that limit risks. Further, prospective clinical assessments before and after treatment should be employed to diagnose subclinical disease. In those patients who require aggressive locoregional management, prophylactic therapies and the use of CDP can help reduce the long-term sequelae of BCRL.

  2. Breast Cancer-Related Arm Lymphedema: Incidence Rates, Diagnostic Techniques, Optimal Management and Risk Reduction Strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shah, Chirag; Vicini, Frank A.

    2011-01-01

    As more women survive breast cancer, long-term toxicities affecting their quality of life, such as lymphedema (LE) of the arm, gain importance. Although numerous studies have attempted to determine incidence rates, identify optimal diagnostic tests, enumerate efficacious treatment strategies and outline risk reduction guidelines for breast cancer–related lymphedema (BCRL), few groups have consistently agreed on any of these issues. As a result, standardized recommendations are still lacking. This review will summarize the latest data addressing all of these concerns in order to provide patients and health care providers with optimal, contemporary recommendations. Published incidence rates for BCRL vary substantially with a range of 2–65% based on surgical technique, axillary sampling method, radiation therapy fields treated, and the use of chemotherapy. Newer clinical assessment tools can potentially identify BCRL in patients with subclinical disease with prospective data suggesting that early diagnosis and management with noninvasive therapy can lead to excellent outcomes. Multiple therapies exist with treatments defined by the severity of BCRL present. Currently, the standard of care for BCRL in patients with significant LE is complex decongestive physiotherapy (CDP). Contemporary data also suggest that a multidisciplinary approach to the management of BCRL should begin prior to definitive treatment for breast cancer employing patient-specific surgical, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy paradigms that limit risks. Further, prospective clinical assessments before and after treatment should be employed to diagnose subclinical disease. In those patients who require aggressive locoregional management, prophylactic therapies and the use of CDP can help reduce the long-term sequelae of BCRL.

  3. Comparative rate and risk factors of recurrent urethral stricture during different surgical procedures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Yu. Pushkar

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective – to identify the major risk factors leading to worse results of surgical treatment in patients with urethral stricture.Subjects and methods. Two hundred and forty-eight patients with urethral stricture underwent different surgical interventions: internal optical urethrotomy (IOU for strictures of different portions of the urethra in 157 patients (the operation was made once in 121 patients, twice in 24 patients, and thrice or more in 12; replacement urethroplasty using a buccal mucosa graft for strictures of the anterior urethra in 46 patients; Turner-Warwick’s anastomotic urethroplasty modified by Webster for strictures (distraction defects of the posterior urethra in 45 patients. The results of surgical treatment were studied using urethrography, uroflowmetry, urethrocystoscopy, the international prostate symptom score, quality of life (QoL questionnaire, and the international index of erectile function (IIEF questionnaire. The role of risk factors for postoperative recurrent urethral stricture was assessed by univariate and multivariate analyses.Results. The rate of recurrent urethral stricture after IOU was 66.9 % (59.5, 87.5, and 100 % after the first, second, third or more subsequent operations, respectively; 12.1 % after all types of urethroplasty, 15.2 % after augmentation urethroplasty, and 8.9 % after anastomotic urethroplasty. The major risk factors of recurrent urethral stricture after IOU were recognized to be the location of urethral stricture in the penile or bulbomembranous portions, a urethral stricture length of > 1 cm, severe urethral lumen narrowing, and performance of 2 or more operations; those after augmentation urethroplasty were previous ineffective treatment, a stricture length of > 4 cm, lichen sclerosus, and smoking; those after anastomotic urethroplasty were previous ineffective treatment, smoking, and a stricture length of > 4 cm.Conclusion. The results of the investigation have shown that only

  4. Comparative rate and risk factors of recurrent urethral stricture during different surgical procedures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Yu. Pushkar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective – to identify the major risk factors leading to worse results of surgical treatment in patients with urethral stricture.Subjects and methods. Two hundred and forty-eight patients with urethral stricture underwent different surgical interventions: internal optical urethrotomy (IOU for strictures of different portions of the urethra in 157 patients (the operation was made once in 121 patients, twice in 24 patients, and thrice or more in 12; replacement urethroplasty using a buccal mucosa graft for strictures of the anterior urethra in 46 patients; Turner-Warwick’s anastomotic urethroplasty modified by Webster for strictures (distraction defects of the posterior urethra in 45 patients. The results of surgical treatment were studied using urethrography, uroflowmetry, urethrocystoscopy, the international prostate symptom score, quality of life (QoL questionnaire, and the international index of erectile function (IIEF questionnaire. The role of risk factors for postoperative recurrent urethral stricture was assessed by univariate and multivariate analyses.Results. The rate of recurrent urethral stricture after IOU was 66.9 % (59.5, 87.5, and 100 % after the first, second, third or more subsequent operations, respectively; 12.1 % after all types of urethroplasty, 15.2 % after augmentation urethroplasty, and 8.9 % after anastomotic urethroplasty. The major risk factors of recurrent urethral stricture after IOU were recognized to be the location of urethral stricture in the penile or bulbomembranous portions, a urethral stricture length of > 1 cm, severe urethral lumen narrowing, and performance of 2 or more operations; those after augmentation urethroplasty were previous ineffective treatment, a stricture length of > 4 cm, lichen sclerosus, and smoking; those after anastomotic urethroplasty were previous ineffective treatment, smoking, and a stricture length of > 4 cm.Conclusion. The results of the investigation have shown that only

  5. Development of jacket platform tsunami risk rating system in waters offshore North Borneo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, H. E.; Liew, M. S.; Mardi, N. H.; Na, K. L.; Toloue, Iraj; Wong, S. K.

    2016-09-01

    This work details the simulation of tsunami waves generated by seaquakes in the Manila Trench and their effect on fixed oil and gas jacket platforms in waters offshore North Borneo. For this study, a four-leg living quarter jacket platform located in a water depth of 63m is modelled in SACS v5.3. Malaysia has traditionally been perceived to be safe from the hazards of earthquakes and tsunamis. Local design practices tend to neglect tsunami waves and include no such provisions. In 2004, a 9.3 M w seaquake occurred off the northwest coast of Aceh, which generated tsunami waves that caused destruction in Malaysia totalling US 25 million and 68 deaths. This event prompted an awareness of the need to study the reliability of fixed offshore platforms scattered throughout Malaysian waters. In this paper, we present a review of research on the seismicity of the Manila Trench, which is perceived to be high risk for Southeast Asia. From the tsunami numerical model TUNA-M2, we extract computer-simulated tsunami waves at prescribed grid points in the vicinity of the platforms in the region. Using wave heights as input, we simulate the tsunami using SACS v5.3 structural analysis software of offshore platforms, which is widely accepted by the industry. We employ the nonlinear solitary wave theory in our tsunami loading calculations for the platforms, and formulate a platform-specific risk quantification system. We then perform an intensive structural sensitivity analysis and derive a corresponding platform-specific risk rating model.

  6. The impact of macroeconomic variables on the evolution of the credit risk rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luminița Gabriela Istrate

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics of the real economy is a major driver of the evolution of arrears at the level of the pool of loans granted to non-financial companies, completed by the financial pressure induced by the monetary conditions. Lending allows on the one hand providing resources for companies that need financing for investment projects, on the other hand, it supports the fund holders to place resources for obtaining profit. The role of the lending policy in the activity of commercial banks is very important, as it may influence both the cost of credits and the loan portfolio quality in the future. The purpose of this research is to find the macroeconomic variables that significantly influence credit risk and to develop a statistical model for predicting the doubtful and non-performing loans rate. Thus, it is envisaged the research of mechanisms by which the dynamics of the real economy and the money market conditions influence the evolution of the credit risk in different business sectors.

  7. Impact of Race/Ethnicity and Socioeconomic Status on Risk-Adjusted Hospital Readmission Rates Following Hip and Knee Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martsolf, Grant R; Barrett, Marguerite L; Weiss, Audrey J; Kandrack, Ryan; Washington, Raynard; Steiner, Claudia A; Mehrotra, Ateev; SooHoo, Nelson F; Coffey, Rosanna

    2016-08-17

    Readmission rates following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) are increasingly used to measure hospital performance. Readmission rates that are not adjusted for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status, patient risk factors beyond a hospital's control, may not accurately reflect a hospital's performance. In this study, we examined the extent to which risk-adjusting for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status affected hospital performance in terms of readmission rates following THA and TKA. We calculated 2 sets of risk-adjusted readmission rates by (1) using the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services standard risk-adjustment algorithm that incorporates patient age, sex, comorbidities, and hospital effects and (2) adding race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status to the model. Using data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, 2011 State Inpatient Databases, we compared the relative performances of 1,194 hospitals across the 2 methods. Addition of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status to the risk-adjustment algorithm resulted in (1) little or no change in the risk-adjusted readmission rates at nearly all hospitals; (2) no change in the designation of the readmission rate as better, worse, or not different from the population mean at >99% of the hospitals; and (3) no change in the excess readmission ratio at >97% of the hospitals. Inclusion of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status in the risk-adjustment algorithm led to a relative-performance change in readmission rates following THA and TKA at socioeconomic status in risk-adjusted THA and TKA readmission rates used for hospital accountability, payment, and public reporting. Prognostic Level III. See instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence. Copyright © 2016 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

  8. The Performance Of Alternative Interest Rate Risk Measures And Immunization Strategies Under A Heath-Jarrow-Morton Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Agca, Senay

    2002-01-01

    The Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) model represents the latest in powerful arbitrage-free technology for modeling the term structure and managing interest rate risk. Yet risk management strategies in the form of immunization portfolios using duration, convexity, and M-square are still widely used in bond portfolio management today. This study addresses the question of how traditional risk measures and immunization strategies perform when the term structure evolves in the HJM manner. Using Monte Ca...

  9. A remote sensing-assisted risk rating study to predict oak decline and recovery in the Missouri Ozark Highlands, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuizhen Wang; Hong S. He; John M. Kabrick

    2008-01-01

    Forests in the Ozark Highlands underwent widespread oak decline affected by severe droughts in 1999-2000. In this study, the differential normalized difference water index was calculated to detect crown dieback. A multi-factor risk rating system was built to map risk levels of stands. As a quick response to drought, decline in 2000 mostly occurred in stands at low to...

  10. A risk microbiological profile of the Australian red meat industry: risk ratings of hazard-product pairings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumner, John; Ross, Tom; Jenson, Ian; Pointon, Andrew

    2005-11-25

    A risk profile of microbial hazards across the supply continuum for the beef, sheep and goat meat industries was developed using both a qualitative tool and a semi-quantitative, spreadsheet tool, Risk Ranger. The latter is useful for highlighting factors contributing to food safety risk and for ranking the risk of various product/pathogen combinations. In the present profile the qualitative tool was used as a preliminary screen for a wide range of hazard-product pairings while Risk Ranger was used to rank in order of population health risk pairings for which quantitative data were available and for assessing the effect of hypothetical scenarios. 'High' risk hazard-product pairings identified were meals contaminated with Clostridium perfringens provided by caterers which have not implemented HACCP; kebabs cross-contaminated by Salmonella present in drip trays or served undercooked; meals served in the home cross-contaminated with Salmonella. 'Medium' risk hazard-product pairings identified were ready-to-eat meats contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes and which have extended shelf life; Uncooked Comminuted Fermented Meat (UCFM)/Salami contaminated with Enterohaemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC) and Salmonella; undercooked hamburgers contaminated with EHEC; kebabs contaminated by Salmonella under normal production or following final "flash" heating. Identified 'low' risk hazard-product pairings included cooked, ready-to-eat sausages contaminated with Salmonella; UCFM/Salami contaminated with L. monocytogenes; well-cooked hamburgers contaminated with EHEC. The risk profile provides information of value to Australia's risk managers in the regulatory, processing and R&D sectors of the meat and meat processing industry for the purposes of identifying food safety risks in the industry and for prioritising risk management actions.

  11. Politics Backstage - Television Documentaries, Politics and Politicians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ib Bondebjerg

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with "the transformation of visibility" in political discourse on and representation of politics and politicians in resent Dansih television documentaries. Drawing on the theories of Habermas, Meyrowitz and John B. Thompson, it is argued that the political persona on television is moved closer to the individual citizen, creating a sort "mediated quasi-inter- action" giving mediated communication a stronger element of face-to-face interaction. Together with the more pervasive "live" coverage of politics and politicians, this expands media coverage to both the backstage of political processes and the private and personal backstage of politicians, changing the form of democracy and public debate.

  12. Defining Political Marketing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ormrod, Robert P.

    ’ and ‘narrow’ interpretations of political marketing, the nature of the political marketing exchange, political relationship marketing and how one can integrate the stakeholder concept into an understanding of political marketing. Finally, we propose a definition of political marketing that differs from......The aim of this working paper is to develop a definition of political marketing that builds on the political rather than commercial marketing literature. This aim is motivated by the need to make explicit our understanding of what political marketing is, a necessary exercise when discussing theory......, concepts and empirical methods in political marketing. We first present five existing definitions of political marketing that have been selected to represent advances in research from the origins of academic research into political marketing in the mid-1970’s to the present day. After this we discuss ‘wide...

  13. 'When you use the term 'long term', how long is that term'. Risk, Exclusion, and the Politics of Knowledge Production in Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste Management Policy Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stanley, Anna [Univ. of Guelph (Canada). Dept. of Geography

    2006-09-15

    Risk operates within Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste (NFW) management policy making as a heuristic for knowledge production about its effects which reconciles the knowledge of the nuclear industry with the outcomes of the NFW management process. In so doing it marginalizes the present and historical experiences of Aboriginal peoples with the nuclear industry, and removes from view the ways in which they have been implicated in the geography and political economy of the nuclear industry. Risk is a discursive form that protects a particular group's claims about the effects of NFW by providing it a universalizing epistemological structure with which to obscure its connection to context. Further risk discourse provides the nuclear industry with a conceptual vocabulary that deliberately casts all competing knowledge as perceptions, values, or as an object of inquiry. The arguments of Aboriginal peoples about the residual effects of radiation in their lands which hosted nuclear activities, such as uranium mining and disposal, have no representation in how the discourse of risk defines and represents knowledge, and thus no purchase in the policy debate. As a result the challenge they present to the nuclear industry's claims are contained. The arrangements which permit the unloading of the negative effects of nuclear power generation onto Aboriginal peoples are thus reproduced (both materially and conceptually), but not shown, by the policy making process and likely, its outcome. In order to raise critical questions about the democratic abilities of risk, this paper has examined the role of 'risk' in Canadian NFW policy making. I have shown how when the politics of knowledge production within the philosophy of risk is analyzed, and the use and role of the notion of risk are interrogated, difficult questions are posed for the democratic potential of risk. I have suggested, through an analysis of the NWMO's representations of Aboriginal content in their

  14. Credit risk migration rates modeling as open systems: A micro-simulation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landini, S.; Uberti, M.; Casellina, S.

    2018-05-01

    The last financial crisis of 2008 stimulated the development of new Regulatory Criteria (commonly known as Basel III) that pushed the banking activity to become more prudential, either in the short and the long run. As well known, in 2014 the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) promulgated the new International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS 9) for financial instruments that will become effective in January 2018. Since the delayed recognition of credit losses on loans was identified as a weakness in existing accounting standards, the IASB has introduced an Expected Loss model that requires more timely recognition of credit losses. Specifically, new standards require entities to account both for expected losses from when the impairments are recognized for the first time and for full loan lifetime; moreover, a clear preference toward forward looking models is expressed. In this new framework, it is necessary a re-thinking of the widespread standard theoretical approach on which the well known prudential model is founded. The aim of this paper is then to define an original methodological approach to migration rates modeling for credit risk which is innovative respect to the standard method from the point of view of a bank as well as in a regulatory perspective. Accordingly, the proposed not-standard approach considers a portfolio as an open sample allowing for entries, migrations of stayers and exits as well. While being consistent with the empirical observations, this open-sample approach contrasts with the standard closed-sample method. In particular, this paper offers a methodology to integrate the outcomes of the standard closed-sample method within the open-sample perspective while removing some of the assumptions of the standard method. Three main conclusions can be drawn in terms of economic capital provision: (a) based on the Markovian hypothesis with a-priori absorbing state at default, the standard closed-sample method is to be abandoned

  15. The modified "Rockfall Hazard Rating System": a new tool for roads risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budetta, P.

    2003-04-01

    This paper contains a modified method for the analysis of rockfall hazard along roads and motorways. The method is derived from that one developed by Pierson et alii at the Oregon State Highway Division. The Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS) provides a rational way to make informed decisions on where and how to spend construction funds. An exponential scoring graph is used to represent the increase in hazard that is reflected in the nine categories forming the classification (slope height, ditch effectiveness, average vehicle risk, percent of decision site distance, roadway width, geological character, quantity of rockfall/event, climate and rock fall history). The resulting total score contains the essential elements regarding the evaluation of the consequences ("cost of failure"). In the modified method, the rating for the categories "ditch effectiveness", "decision sight distance", "rodway width", "geologic characteristic" and "climate and water circulation" have been rendered more easy and objective. The main modifications regard the introduction of the Romana's Slope Mass Rating improving the estimate of the geologic characteristics, of the volume of the potentially unstable blocks and underground water circulation. Other modifications regard the scoring determination for the categories "decision sight distance" and "road geometry". For these categories, the Italian National Council's standards (CNR) have been used. The method must be applied in both the traffic directions because the percentage of reduction in the "decision sight distance" greatly affects the results. An application of the method to a 2-km-long section of the Sorrentine road (n° 145) in Southern Italy was pointed out. A high traffic intensity affects the entire section of the road and rockfalls periodically cause casualties, as well as a large amount of damage and traffic interruptions. The method was applied on seven cross section traces of slopes adjacent to the Sorrentine road and the

  16. Prevalence rates and epidemiological risk factors for astigmatism in Singapore school children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Louis; Saw, Seang-Mei; Carkeet, Andrew; Chan, Wai-Ying; Wu, Hui-Min; Tan, Donald

    2002-09-01

    This study examined the prevalence rate of astigmatism and its epidemiological risk factors in Singapore school children. In a study of school children aged 7 to 9 years old in two schools in Singapore in 1999, a detailed questionnaire was administered to parents regarding reading or close-work habits, past history of close-work, family history, and socioeconomic factors. Cycloplegic refraction was performed five times in each eye. Defining astigmatism as worse than or equal to 0.5, 0.75, and 1 D cylinder in the right eye, the prevalence of astigmatism was calculated. The study population consisted of 1028 children. The prevalence rate of astigmatism (worse than or equal to 1 D cylinder) was 19.2% (95% confidence interval, 16.8 to 21.6). This was not different between genders, ethnic groups, or age (p > 0.05). With-the-rule astigmatism was more common than against-the-rule astigmatism. The prevalence of astigmatism and myopia was 9.8% (95% confidence interval, 8.0 to 11.6). A high AC/A ratio was associated (p = 0.003) with astigmatism, even after exclusion of myopic children. On vectorial analysis, J0 and J45 were associated with the number of hours of playing video games, whereas J45 was also associated with computer use. Only J45 was associated to male gender, a high AC/A ratio, and a family history of myopia. The prevalence rate of astigmatism (> or = 1 D) was 19%. Playing video games and computer use may be associated with astigmatism severity, although the presence of astigmatism (> or = 1 D) was not associated with any nearwork factors. A family history of myopia was associated with oblique astigmatism severity. A high AC/A ratio is associated with astigmatism, and this requires further investigation.

  17. Brazilian women in politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, T G

    1987-01-01

    Women are gradually gaining influence in Brazilian politics, especially since recent advances in the women's movement, but they still play a limited role. There have been journals devoted to feminism and some notable feminists since 1850. In 1932 suffragettes in Brazil gained women the right to vote. Women's associations burgeoned in the 1940s and 1950s, culminating in a peak in number of women in national elected positions in 1965. A repressive military regime reversed the process, which resumed in 1975. 1975 was also significant for the Brazilian women's movement because of the U.N. Women's Year. Several large, influential feminist political action groups were formed, typically by upper class women with leftist views, although some church and union groups from lower classes also appeared. In 1979-1981, the coherence of these groups fell into schism and fragmentation, because of disagreements over the feminist political doctrines and roles, views on legality of abortion, and special interest groups such as lesbians. Another bitter dispute is opposition by leftist women to BEMFAM, the Brazilian Society of Family Welfare, which provides family planning for the poor: leftists oppose BEMFAM because it is supported by funds from "imperialist" countries such as the U.S. There are several types of feminists groups: those that emphasize health, sexuality and violence; those composed of lesbians; those originating from lower classes and unions; publicly instituted organizations. Brazilian law forbids discrimination against women holding public office, but in reality very few women actually do hold office, except for mayors of small towns and a few administrators of the Education and Social Security ministries. Political office in Brazil is gained by clientism, and since women rarely hold powerful positions in business, they are outsiders of the system. Brazilian women have achieved much, considering the low female literacy rate and traditional power system, but their

  18. Reclaiming hope: Affect, temporality, politics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taş, B.

    2016-01-01

    The critical task I take up in this research is to reconceptualize hope as an affective orientation in time, which requires remaining open to the risks that the unknowability of the future entails. I consider this opening a political contestation that is necessary to critique the current

  19. [Do laymen understand information about hospital quality? An empirical verification using risk-adjusted mortality rates as an example].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, Uwe; Kolb, Benjamin; Taheri, Fatemeh; Patzelt, Christiane; Emmert, Martin

    2017-11-01

    The effect of public reporting to improve quality in healthcare is reduced by the limited intelligibility of information about the quality of healthcare providers. This may result in worse health-related choices especially for older people and those with lower levels of education. There is, as yet, little information as to whether laymen understand the concepts behind quality comparisons and if this comprehension is correlated with hospital choices. An instrument with 20 items was developed to analyze the intelligibility of five technical terms which were used in German hospital report cards to explain risk-adjusted death rates. Two online presentations of risk-adjusted death rates for five hospitals in the style of hospital report cards were developed. An online survey of 353 volunteers tested the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality rates and included an experimental hospital choice. The intelligibility of five technical terms was tested: risk-adjusted, actual and expected death rate, reference range and national average. The percentages of correct answers for the five technical terms were in the range of 75.0-60.2%. Between 23.8% and 5.1% of the respondents were not able to answer the question about the technical term itself. The least comprehensible technical terms were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". The intelligibility of the 20 items that were used to test the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality was between 89.5% and 14.2%. The two items that proved to be least comprehensible were related to the technical terms "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". For all five technical terms it was found that a better comprehension correlated significantly with better hospital choices. We found a better than average intelligibility for the technical terms "actual and expected death rate" and for "national average". The least understandable were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". Since the self

  20. Interplay Between Politics and Sport in Political Science Theories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Kustec Lipicer

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Times when relations between politics and sports did not exist – be it in everyday practices or within scientific research – is definitely long gone, if they ever even existed. Nevertheless, it seems today that, especially within scientific research, these relations do not receive appropriate attention in the territories of former socialist sports superpowers, being a priori denied and considered as unimportant. That is why the key motive of this article is to initiate a discussion about the relevance of knowledge and research of the relations between politics and sport from two perspectives – the existing world-wide political science research experiences gained so far and already conducted researches in the territory of former Yugoslavia. In doing so, we first theoretically define the context of sports and politics, and then with the use of the literature review method analyse their mutual connectivity in the world and, more narrowly, within the work of the scientific community in the region of former Yugoslavia. Based on the gained conclusions which confirm a tight and constant, but also often abstract and flat-rate understood interplay between both analysed phenomena, a special typology for their in-depth and political-science-focused study is delivered. It is believed that distinctions between political, polity and policy approaches to sport decisively influence the mode of their future interplay.

  1. Accounting for Risk of Non-Completion in Private and Social Rates of Return to Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toutkoushian, Robert K.; Shafiq, M. Najeeb; Trivette, Michael J.

    2013-01-01

    Conventional studies of the private and social rates of return to a Bachelor's degree focus on the earnings difference between Bachelor degree holders and high school graduates, and find that there are large rates of return for degree recipients. The estimates in these studies, however, do not take into account the risk of not completing a degree.…

  2. Exploring Political Alternatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denhardt, Robert B.

    1975-01-01

    The author distinguishes between the concepts of political socialization and political education. He argues that political socialization has come to dominate both our thinking and our teaching in the area of civic education. Suggestions for promoting political education are included. (DE)

  3. Language and Politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chimombo, Moira

    1999-01-01

    Surveys the interrelationship between language and politics. Touches on the context of political discourse, or political culture and ideology in new and old democracies and the reemerging manifestations of totalitarianism, censorship, and linguistic imperialism; then examines selected linguistic features of political discourse and their…

  4. Resource Extraction in a Political Economy Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Ryszka, Karolina

    2013-01-01

    We analyze resource extraction in a political economy setting by introducing a political leader who optimizes both his own and the society's welfare function. We find that accounting for the private utility of a political elite, its higher discount rate and a different time horizon generally speeds up extraction. The higher than optimal resource extraction is not only relevant in welfare terms, but also regarding possible consequences with respect to climate change. The effect of higher extra...

  5. Association between Carotid Intima Media Thickness and Heart Rate Variability in Adults at Increased Cardiovascular Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ovidiu C. Baltatu

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Atherosclerotic carotid intima-media thickness (IMT may be associated with alterations in the sensitivity of carotid baroreceptors. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between carotid IMT and the autonomic modulation of heart rate variability (HRV.Methods: A total of 101 subjects were enrolled in this prospective observational study. The carotid IMT was determined by duplex ultrasonography. The cardiac autonomic function was determined through HRV measures during the Deep Breathing Test. Linear regression models, adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, body mass index, waist-hip-ratio, and left ventricular ejection fraction were used to evaluate the association between HRV parameters and carotid IMT.Results: Participants had a mean age of 60.4 ± 13.4 years and an estimated 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD risk score (using the Pooled Cohort Equations of 16.4 ± 17. The mean carotid media thickness was highest (0.90 ± 0.19 mm in the first quartile of the standard deviation of all RR intervals (SDNN (19.7 ± 5.1 ms and progressively declined in each subsequent quartile to 0.82 ± 0.21 mm, 0.81 ± 0.16 mm, and 0.68 ± 0.19 in quartiles 2 (36.5 ± 5.9 ms, 3 (57.7 ± 6.2 ms and 4 (100.9 ± 22.2 ms, respectively. In multivariable adjusted models, there was a statistical significant association between SDNN and carotid IMT (OR −0.002; 95%CI −0.003 to −0.001, p = 0.005. The same significant association was found between carotid IMT and other measures of HRV, including coefficient of variation of RR intervals (CV and dispersion of points along the line of identity (SD2.Conclusions: In a cohort of individuals at increased cardiovascular risk, carotid IMT as a marker of subclinical atherosclerosis was associated with alterations of HRV indicating an impaired cardiac autonomic control, independently of other cardiovascular risk factors.

  6. Community characteristics, conservative ideology, and child abuse rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breyer, Rebekah J; MacPhee, David

    2015-03-01

    Authoritarian ideology, including religious conservativism, endorses obedience to authority and physical punishment of children. Although this association has been studied at the level of the family, little research has been conducted on whether conservativism in the broader community context correlates with the mistreatment of children. The purpose of this study was to determine whether this relation between conservativism and physical punishment of children extends to child abuse rates at the community level. Predictors included county-level religious and political conservativism and demographic variables. Political and religious conservativism covaried, and both were inversely related to child abuse rates. Population density was strongly related to rates of maltreatment and with demographic factors controlled, religious conservativism but not political conservativism continued to predict rates of child abuse. The results suggest that community factors related to social disorganization may be more important than religious or political affiliation in putting children at risk for maltreatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. A trauma-like model of political extremism: psycho-political fault lines in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laor, Nathaniel; Yanay-Shani, Alma; Wolmer, Leo; Khoury, Oula

    2010-10-01

    This study examines a trauma-like model of potentially violent political extremism among Jewish Israelis. We study the psychosocial characteristics of political extremists that may lie at the root of sociopolitical instability and assess personal (gender, stressful life events, Holocaust family background, and political activism) and psychological parameters (self- and political transcendence, perceived political threats, in/out-group identification ratio) that may predict readiness to engage in destructive political behavior. We examine the ideological zeal of various political groups, the relationship between the latter and perceived political threats, and the predictors of extreme political activism. Results showed that the extreme political poles displayed high level of ideological and morbid transcendence. Right extremists displayed higher perceived threats to physical existence and national identity. Left extremists scored highest on perceived moral integrity threat. Higher perceived threats to national identity and moral integrity, risk, and self-transcendence statistically explain morbid transcendence. When fear conjures up extremely skewed sociopolitical identifications across political boundaries, morbid transcendence may manifest itself in destructive political activity. © 2010 Association for Research in Nervous and Mental Disease.

  8. DIGITAL FLOOD INSURANCE RATE MAP DATABASE, DODGE COUNTY, WISCONSIN, USA - MIP Dodge Portion Upper Rock River Watershed RiskMap DFIRM Update

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — The Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map (DFIRM) Database depicts flood risk information and supporting data used to develop the risk data. The primary risk;...

  9. DIGITAL FLOOD INSURANCE RATE MAP DATABASE, COLUMBIA COUNTY, WISCONSIN, USA - MIP Columbia Portion Baraboo River Watershed RiskMap DFIRM Update

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — The Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map (DFIRM) Database depicts flood risk information and supporting data used to develop the risk data. The primary risk;...

  10. Strategic political postures and political market orientation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ormrod, Robert P.; Henneberg, Stephan C.

    2010-01-01

    by developing an integrated concept of political marketing strategy using two complementary frameworks, namely Strategic Political Postures (SPP) and Political Market Orientation (PMO). We introduce the two main concepts and derive for each of the strategic posture-specific PMO profiles as well as inter......Recently, the areas of strategic political marketing and political market orientation have been the subject of several conceptual articles which have provided the theoretical foundations for further empirical work. However, despite the close conceptual relatedness of the proposed concepts......, these have yet to be integrated to provide a more nuanced framework which both researchers and political marketing practitioners can utilise in the development of strategies and offerings with which to achieve their organizational goals. The aim of this conceptual paper is to address this deficit...

  11. Business travel and self-rated health, obesity, and cardiovascular disease risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Catherine A; Rundle, Andrew G

    2011-04-01

    To assess associations between extent of travel for business and health. Associations between business travel and cardiovascular disease risk factors were assessed using medical record data from 13,057 patients provided by EHE International, Inc. Compared with light travelers (1 to 6 nights per month), nontravelers were more likely to report poor/fair health (odds ratio = 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.33 to 1.87) and the odds ratios increased with increasing travel, reaching 2.61 (95% CI: 1.57 to 4.33) among extensive travelers (>20 nights per month). Compared with light travelers, the odds ratios for obesity were highest among nontravelers (odds ratio = 1.33; 95% CI: 1.18 to 1.50) and extensive travelers (odds ratio = 1.92; 95% CI: 1.25 to 2.94). Although the differences were small, nontravelers and extensive travelers had the highest diastolic blood pressure and lowest high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. Poor self-rated health and obesity are associated with extensive business travel.

  12. The rate of endophthalmitis after pars plana vitrectomy and its risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabatabaei, Seyed Ali; Soleimani, Mohammad; Vakili, Hadi; Naderan, Morteza; Lashay, Alireza; Faghihi, Houshang; Yaseri, Mehdi

    2018-05-11

    To study the incidence of endophthalmitis after pars plana vitrectomy, its causative organisms, and visual acuity outcomes. In this retrospective, comparative study, the medical records of patients with acute-onset postoperative endophthalmitis after pars plana vitrectomy at Farabi Eye Hospital, Tehran, Iran, during a 12-year period between January 2004 and November 2015 were reviewed. To compare the endophthalmitis patients with other cases who underwent pars plana vitrectomy at the same day and also the same operating room, a control group was developed by gathering the data from surgical records. In the present study, the incidence rate of pos- vitrectomy endophthalmitis was 0.04% (16/39783). The organisms identified in aqueous or vitreous cultures (culture positive 44%) included Streptococcus pneumoniae (two patients, 12.5%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (two patients, 12.5%), fungi (two patients, 12.5%), and Streptococcus viridans (one patient, 6.25%). Visual acuity after treatment for endophthalmitis ranged from light perception (7 eyes) to hand motion (1 eye), and evisceration was performed in 8 eyes (50%). When comparing the cases (patients developing endophthalmitis) and controls (patients with no complications operated in the same day and place of operation with the case group), only not using tamponade showed a statistically significant relation with the occurrence of endophthalmitis (p = 0.034). Our results indicated low incidence of endophthalmitis after pars plana vitrectomy comparable to previous studies which resulted in poor visual acuity. It seems that not using tamponade might increase the risk of endophthalmitis among these patients.

  13. Lifetime radiation risks from low-dose rate radionuclides in beagles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldman, M.; Rosenblatt, L.S.

    1985-01-01

    One of the largest, long-term (25-yr) animal studies on the effects of low-dose internal irradiation is almost completed. Some 335 beagles were given continuous exposure to graded 90 Sr [low linear energy transfer (LET)] in their diets (D-dogs) through adulthood. A second group (R-dogs) was given fractionated doses of 225 Ra (high LET) as young adults. A third group of 44 was given a single injection of 90 Sr as adults (S-dogs) to compare single to continuous dosages. All dogs were followed through their lifetimes. Only one of the 848 dogs is still alive. The animals were whole-body counted over their entire life span and were examined frequently for assessment of medical status. There were no acute radiation lethalities. Analyses of the large data base from these dogs have begun and preliminary indications are that 90 Sr, which was tested over a 1500-fold skeletal dose rate range, does not cause significant life shortening at average accumulation skeletal doses of ∼2500 rads (25 Gy) and that a curvilinear dose response curve for life shortening was seen at higher accumulation doses. The data will be discussed in terms of modern epidemiological concepts and quantifications will be related to certain parameters of human risk from acute or chronic radiation exposures

  14. Rate of Corneal Collagen Crosslinking Redo in Private Practice: Risk Factors and Safety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joelle Antoun

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To report the rate of progression of keratectasia after primary crosslinking (CXL and evaluate the safety and efficiency of CXL redo. Materials and Methods. We conducted a retrospective analysis of the patients who underwent CXL between 2010 and 2013 at the Beirut Eye Specialist Hospital, Lebanon. Progression of keratectasia was based on the presence of an increase in maximum keratometry of 1.00 D, a change in the map difference between two consecutive topographies of 1.00 D, a deterioration of visual acuity, or any change in the refraction. Primary and redo CXL were done using the same protocol. Results. Among the 221 eyes of 130 patients who underwent CXL, 7 eyes (3.17% of five patients met the criteria of progression. All patients reported a history of allergic conjunctivitis and eye rubbing and progressed within 9 to 48 months. No complications were noted and all patients were stable 1 year after CXL redo. Conclusion. Allergic conjunctivitis and eye rubbing were the only risk factors associated with keratoconus progression after CXL. A close followup is thus mandatory, even years after the procedure. CXL redo seems to be a safe and efficient technique to halt the progression after a primary CXL.

  15. School burnout and heart rate variability: risk of cardiovascular disease and hypertension in young adult females.

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Ross W; Seibert, Gregory S; Sanchez-Gonzalez, Marcos A; Fincham, Frank D

    2018-05-01

    Emerging research documents the relationship between school burnout and some indicators of increased cardiovascular risk. Indicators of cardiovascular functioning assessed via ambulatory blood pressure and heart rate variability (HRV) have not been thoroughly explored in this research domain. Therefore, the current study examined relationships between school burnout and indicators of cardiac functioning via 24 h ambulatory blood pressure (BP) and electrocardiogram monitoring in a sample of young adult female undergraduates (N = 88). Two hypotheses were tested: (1) that independent of related negative affective symptomology (depression and anxiety), increased school burnout would be related to greater systolic and diastolic BP, higher low frequency (LF) HRV and lower very low frequency (VLF) HRV, and (2) that lower VLF would be related to greater school burnout independently of LF HRV. Hierarchical multiple regression analyzes showed that school burnout was significantly related to elevated ambulatory BP (systolic and diastolic) and HRV markers of increased cardiac sympathovagal tone. These findings support the hypotheses and suggest that school burnout might be implicated in the development of pre-hypertension or early cardiovascular disease. Study limitations and the need for future longitudinal research are discussed.

  16. Statewide prevalence of school children at risk of anaphylaxis and rate of adrenaline autoinjector activation in Victorian government schools, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loke, Paxton; Koplin, Jennifer; Beck, Cara; Field, Michael; Dharmage, Shyamali C; Tang, Mimi L K; Allen, Katrina J

    2016-08-01

    The prevalence of school students at risk of anaphylaxis in Victoria is unknown and has not been previously studied. Similarly, rates of adrenaline autoinjector usage in the school environment have yet to be determined given increasing prescription rates. We sought to determine time trends in prevalence of school children at risk of anaphylaxis across all year levels and the annual usage rate of adrenaline autoinjectors in the school setting relative to the number of students at risk of anaphylaxis. Statewide surveys from more than 1,500 government schools including more than 550,000 students were used and prevalence rates (%) with 95% CIs were calculated. The overall prevalence of students at risk of anaphylaxis has increased 41% from 0.98% (95% CI, 0.95-1.01) in 2009 to 1.38% (95% CI, 1.35-1.41) in 2014. There was a significant drop in reporting of anaphylaxis risk with transition from the final year of primary school to the first year of secondary school, suggesting a change in parental reporting of anaphylaxis risk among secondary school students. The number of adrenaline autoinjectors activated per 1000 students at risk of anaphylaxis ranged from 6 to 8 per year, with consistently higher activation use in secondary school students than in primary school students. Statewide prevalence of anaphylaxis risk has increased in children attending Victorian government schools. However, adrenaline autoinjector activation has remained fairly stable despite known increase in the rates of prescription. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Politics Backstage - Television Documentaries, Politics and Politicians

    OpenAIRE

    Ib Bondebjerg

    2006-01-01

    This article deals with "the transformation of visibility" in political discourse on and representation of politics and politicians in resent Dansih television documentaries. Drawing on the theories of Habermas, Meyrowitz and John B. Thompson, it is argued that the political persona on television is moved closer to the individual citizen, creating a sort "mediated quasi-inter- action" giving mediated communication a stronger element of face-to-face interaction. Together...

  18. Political entrepreneurship and bidding for political monopoly

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Wohlgemuth

    2000-01-01

    An analytical framework for dealing with political entrepreneurship and reform is proposed which is based on some new combinations of Schumpeterian political economy, an extended version of Tullock's model of democracy as franchise-bidding for natural monopoly and some basic elements of New Institutional Economics. It is shown that problems of insufficient award criteria and incomplete contracts which may arise in economic bidding schemes, also - and even more so - characterise political comp...

  19. Resource Windfalls, Political Regimes, and Political Stability

    OpenAIRE

    Francesco Caselli; Andrea Tesei

    2011-01-01

    We study theoretically and empirically whether natural resource windfalls affect political regimes. We document the following regularities. Natural resource windfalls have no effect on the political system when they occur in democracies. However, windfalls have significant political consequences in autocracies. In particular, when an autocratic country receives a positive shock to its flow of resource rents it responds by becoming even more autocratic. Furthermore, there is heterogeneity in t...

  20. Relationship Between the Urine Flow Rate and Risk of Contrast-Induced Nephropathy After Emergent Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yong; Lin, Lixia; Li, Yun; Li, Hualong; Wu, Deng-Xuan; Zhao, Jian-bin; Lian, Dan; Zhou, Yingling; Liu, Yuanhui; Ye, Piao; Ran, Peng; Duan, Chongyang; Chen, Shiqun; Chen, Pingyan; Xian, Ying; Chen, Jiyan; Tan, Ning

    2015-12-01

    A low urine flow rate is a marker of acute kidney injury. However, it is unclear whether a high urine flow rate is associated with a reduced risk of contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) in high-risk patients. We conducted this study to evaluate the predictive value of the urine flow rate for the risk of CIN following emergent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We prospectively examined 308 patients undergoing emergent PCI who provided consent. The predictive value of the 24-hour postprocedural urine flow rate, adjusted by weight (UR/W, mL/kg/h) and divided into quartiles, for the risk of CIN was assessed using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The cumulative incidence of CIN was 24.4%. In particular, CIN was observed in 29.5%, 19.5%, 16.7%, and 32.0% of cases in the UR/W quartile (Q)-1 (≤0.94  mL/kg/h), Q2 (0.94-1.30  mL/kg/h), Q3 (1.30-1.71  mL/kg/h), and Q4 (≥1.71  mL/kg/h), respectively. Moreover, in-hospital death was noted in 7.7%, 3.9%, 5.1%, and 5.3% of patients in Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4, respectively. After adjusting for potential confounding predictors, multivariate analysis indicated that compared with the moderate urine flow rate quartiles (Q2 + Q3), a high urine flow rate (Q4) (odds ratio [OR], 2.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.27-5.68; P = 0.010) and low urine flow rate (Q1) (OR, 2.23; 95% CI, 1.03-4.82; P = 0.041) were significantly associated with an increased risk of CIN. Moreover, a moderate urine flow rate (0.94-1.71  mL/kg/h) was significantly associated with a decreased risk of mortality. Our data suggest that higher and lower urine flow rates were significantly associated with an increased risk of CIN after emergent PCI, and a moderate urine flow rate (0.94-1.71  mL/kg/h) may be associated with a decreased risk of CIN with a good long-term prognosis after emergent PCI.

  1. Expert ratings of job demand and job control as predictors of injury and musculoskeletal disorder risk in a manufacturing cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantley, Linda F; Tessier-Sherman, Baylah; Slade, Martin D; Galusha, Deron; Cullen, Mark R

    2016-04-01

    To examine associations between workplace injury and musculoskeletal disorder (MSD) risk and expert ratings of job-level psychosocial demand and job control, adjusting for job-level physical demand. Among a cohort of 9260 aluminium manufacturing workers in jobs for which expert ratings of job-level physical and psychological demand and control were obtained during the 2 years following rating obtainment, multivariate mixed effects models were used to estimate relative risk (RR) of minor injury and minor MSD, serious injury and MSD, minor MSD only and serious MSD only by tertile of demand and control, adjusting for physical demand as well as other recognised risk factors. Compared with workers in jobs rated as having low psychological demand, workers in jobs with high psychological demand had 49% greater risk of serious injury and serious MSD requiring medical treatment, work restrictions or lost work time (RR=1.49; 95% CI 1.10 to 2.01). Workers in jobs rated as having low control displayed increased risk for minor injury and minor MSD (RR=1.45; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.87) compared with those in jobs rated as having high control. Using expert ratings of job-level exposures, this study provides evidence that psychological job demand and job control contribute independently to injury and MSD risk in a blue-collar manufacturing cohort, and emphasises the importance of monitoring psychosocial workplace exposures in addition to physical workplace exposures to promote worker health and safety. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  2. Linking Political Systems and War Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harste, Gorm

    2009-01-01

    Decisive parts of the Western political system have demonstrated a seemingly surprising misinterpretation of military might. As Madelaine Albright has suggested, the mighty perceived themselves as "almighty". Political power seems to have invested in instrumental coercive power relations and found...... military coercion to be the appropriate mean. Using the system theory and the theory of systemic risks displayed by the German sociologist Niklas Luhmann the article demonstrates how military systems due to their own autonomy and autopoiesis do not fit into the idea of political government....... The Clausewitzian ideal of a political system that could continue its power games by means of war was moderated by Clausewitz' own analysis of "friction". How can a political system be so blind towards the possibilities of another system? What are the risks of systemic blind spots? The argument of the paper...

  3. Radioablation of liver malignancies with interstitial high-dose-rate brachytherapy. Complications and risk factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mohnike, Konrad; Wolf, Steffen; Damm, Robert; Seidensticker, Max; Seidensticker, Ricarda; Fischbach, Frank; Pech, Maciej; Ricke, Jens [Otto-von-Guericke-Universitaet, Klinik fuer Radiologie und Nuklearmedizin, Universitaetsklinikum Magdeburg A.oe.R., Magdeburg (Germany); Peters, Nils; Hass, Peter; Gademann, Guenther [Otto-von-Guericke-Universitaet, Klinik fuer Strahlentherapie, Universitaetsklinikum Magdeburg A.oe.R., Magdeburg (Germany)

    2016-05-15

    To evaluate complications and identify risk factors for adverse events in patients undergoing high-dose-rate interstitial brachytherapy (iBT). Data from 192 patients treated in 343 CT- or MRI-guided interventions from 2006-2009 at our institution were analyzed. In 41 %, the largest tumor treated was ≥ 5 cm, 6 % of the patients had tumors ≥ 10 cm. Prior to iBT, 60 % of the patients had chemotherapy, 22 % liver resection, 19 % thermoablation or transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Safety was the primary endpoint; survival data were obtained as the secondary endpoints. During follow-up, MRI or CT imaging was performed and clinical and laboratory parameters were obtained. The rate of major complications was below 5 %. Five major bleedings (1.5 %) occurred. The frequency of severe bleeding was significantly higher in patients with advanced liver cirrhosis. One patient developed signs of a nonclassic radiation-induced liver disease. In 3 patients, symptomatic gastrointestinal (GI) ulcers were detected. A dose exposure to the GI wall above 14 Gy/ml was a reliable threshold to predict ulcer formation. A combination of C-reactive protein ≥ 165 mg/l and/or leukocyte count ≥ 12.7 Gpt/l on the second day after the intervention predicted infection (sensitivity 90.0 %; specificity 92.8 %.) Two patients (0.6 %) died within 30 days. Median overall survival after the first liver treatment was 20.1 months for all patients and the local recurrence-free surviving proportion was 89 % after 12 months. Image-guided iBT yields a low rate of major complications and is effective. (orig.) [German] Evaluierung der Komplikationsrate und Identifizierung von Risikofaktoren fuer Komplikationen und Nebenwirkungen bei Patienten mit Lebermalignomen, die mit der hochdosierten interstitiellen Brachytherapie (iBT) behandelt wurden. Von 2006 bis 2009 wurden 192 Patienten in 343 CT- oder MRT-gefuehrten Interventionen behandelt und deren Daten ausgewertet. Der groesste behandelte Tumor war in

  4. Reduced glomerular filtration rate and its association with clinical outcome in older patients at risk of vascular events: secondary analysis.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Ford, Ian

    2009-01-20

    Reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is associated with increased cardiovascular risk in young and middle aged individuals. Associations with cardiovascular disease and mortality in older people are less clearly established. We aimed to determine the predictive value of the GFR for mortality and morbidity using data from the 5,804 participants randomized in the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER).

  5. Risk premium shocks, monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland

    OpenAIRE

    Vonnák, Balázs

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the role of monetary policy in a small open economy, where exchange rate shocks are important. VAR models are estimated for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. Contemporaneous and sign restrictions are imposed in order to identify the effect of monetary policy and risk premium shocks. Estimates from the same model for Canada, Sweden and the UK are used as benchmark for developed economies with low inflation. The results suggest that the typical size a of risk premi...

  6. On the rate of return and risk factors to international oil companies in Iran's buy-back service contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghandi, Abbas; Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia

    2017-01-01

    We analyze the rate of return (ROR) and risk factors faced by Shell Exploration, an international oil company (IOC), in its Soroosh and Nowrooz buy-back service contract in Iran. In particular, based on our models of cash flow, we analyze the buy-back contract specific risk factors that can contribute to a reduction in the rate of return for the international oil company. Our cash flow models resemble the cash flow of buy-back service contracts before the Iranian government changed the way it determined the capital cost ceiling and pre-defined the oil price in these contracts in 2008–2009. Our actual and contractual cash flow models reveal that Shell Exploration's actual ROR was much lower than the contractual level. Furthermore, we find that among the risk factors that we considered, a capital cost overrun has the greatest negative effect on the IOC's ROR. Moreover, we show that there is a potential for modifying the contracts in order for the IOC to face an actual ROR closer to the contractual ROR even if the contract faces cost overrun or delay, without exceeding the maximum contractual ROR that the National Iranian Oil Company is willing to give. - Highlights: • Buy-back contract specific risk factors can reduce the rate of return. • Shell Exploration's actual ROR was much lower than the contractual level. • A capital cost overrun has the greatest negative effect on the rate of return. • Contracts can be modified to better share the risk.

  7. Political learning among youth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solhaug, Trond; Kristensen, Niels Nørgaard

    2014-01-01

    This article focuses on students’ first political learning and explores the research question, what dynamic patterns of political learning can be explored among a selection of young, diverse Danish students’ first political interests? The authors use theories of learning in their analytical......, but are active constructors of their political life. Their emotions and social environment are highly important for their political orientation. It is recommended that further research focus on dynamic learning and on arenas for political learning rather than on “single agent studies.” Recommendations...

  8. Rates of Delirium Diagnosis Do Not Improve with Emergency Risk Screening: Results of the Emergency Department Delirium Initiative Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arendts, Glenn; Love, Jennefer; Nagree, Yusuf; Bruce, David; Hare, Malcolm; Dey, Ian

    2017-08-01

    To determine whether a bundled risk screening and warning or action card system improves formal delirium diagnosis and person-centered outcomes in hospitalized older adults. Prospective trial with sequential introduction of screening and interventional processes. Two tertiary referral hospitals in Australia. Individuals aged 65 and older presenting to the emergency department (ED) and not requiring immediate resuscitation (N = 3,905). Formal ED delirium screening algorithm and use of a risk warning card with a recommended series of actions for the prevention and management of delirium during the subsequent admission MEASUREMENTS: Delirium diagnosis at hospital discharge, proportion discharged to new assisted living arrangements, in-hospital complications (use of sedation, falls, aspiration pneumonia, death), hospital length of stay. Participants with a positive risk screen were significantly more likely (relative risk = 6.0, 95% confidence interval = 4.9-7.3) to develop delirium, and the proportion of at-risk participants with a positive screen was constant across three study phases. Delirium detection rate in participants undergoing the final intervention (Phase 3) was 12.1% (a 2% absolute and 17% relative increase from the baseline rate) but this was not statistically significant (P = .29), and a similar relative increase was seen over time in participants not receiving the intervention CONCLUSION: A risk screening and warning or action card intervention in the ED did not significantly improve rates of delirium detection or other important outcomes. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

  9. Perceived Organisational Politics, Political Behaviour and Employee ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    facing both private and public sector organisations (Nidhi & Prerna, 2015;. Gotsis & Kortezi ... These studies suggest that organisational politics often interfere with normal ..... Rawls's (1971) theory of justice provides a theoretical foundation for the relationship between ..... Ethical considerations in organisational politics: ...

  10. Celebrity politics: the politics of late modernity?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marsh, D.; t Hart, P.; Tindall, K.

    2010-01-01

    The academic literature on celebrity politics is rarely systematic; more often it is superficial and anecdotal. In addition, most of the literature focuses either upon classifying different types/categories of celebrity politicians and their roles in politics, or upon the question of whether the

  11. Exploring Women's Understanding of Politics, Political Contestation ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Exploring Women's Understanding of Politics, Political Contestation and Gender Transformation in the Caribbean. IDRC's Democratic Governance, Women's Rights and Gender Equality initiative is supporting a body of comparative research on whether and how democratic processes and institutions are responding to ...

  12. Political Values or the Value of Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simoska, Emilija

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This essay was motivated by the gap between proclaimed democratic principles and the perceptions of politics which are exhibited by the citizens in transitional countries -more specifically in the Republic of Macedonia. It is based on research data collected in the past few decades, which illustrate that, in their political actions, the citizens are highly motivated by personal benefits and profits, rather than by their internalized values and ideologies. Non-democratic, authoritarian values prevail, while politics is perceived as a value itself, in the most materialistic meaning of the word. It creates a suitable milieu for growth of corruption, nepotism and clientelism. The authors conclude that such a circulus vitsiosus is a corner stone of the Macedonian political regime, and an enormous obstacle for the advancement of the participative, democratic political culture in reality, in spite of its formal acceptance.

  13. Self-rated Health and Internet Addiction in Iranian Medical Sciences Students; Prevalence, Risk Factors and Complications

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammadbeigi, Abolfazl; Valizadeh, Farzaneh; Mirshojaee, Seyede Roqaie; Ahmadli, Robabeh; Mokhtari, Mohsen; Ghaderi, Ebrahim; Ahmadi, Ali; Rezaei, Heshmatollah; Ansari, Hossein

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Self-rated health is a brief measure for general health. It is a comprehensive and sensitive index for prediction of health in future. Due to the high internet usage in medical students, the current study designed to evaluate the self-rated health (SRH) in relationship with internet addiction risk factors in medical students. Methods: This cross sectional study conducted on 254 students of Qom University of Medical Sciences 2014. Participants selected by two stage sampling metho...

  14. Comparing variation in hospital rates of cesarean delivery among low-risk women using 3 different measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Joanne C; Kozhimannil, Katy B; McDermott, Patricia; Saade, George R; Srinivas, Sindhu K

    2016-02-01

    This report describes the development of a measure of low-risk cesarean delivery by the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (SMFM). Safely lowering the cesarean delivery rate is a priority for maternity care clinicians and health care delivery systems. Therefore, hospital quality assurance programs are increasingly tracking cesarean delivery rates among low-risk pregnancies. Two commonly used definitions of "low risk" are available, the Joint Commission (JC) and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) measures, but these measures are not clinically comprehensive. We sought to refine the definition of the low-risk cesarean delivery rate to enhance the validity of the metric for quality measurement. We created this refined definition-called the SMFM definition-and compared it to the JC and AHRQ measures using claims-based data from the 2011 Nationwide Inpatient Sample of >863,000 births in 612 hospitals. Using these definitions, we calculated means and interquartile ranges (25th-75th percentile range) for hospital low-risk cesarean delivery rates, stratified by hospital size, teaching status, urban/rural location, and payer mix. Across all hospitals, the mean low-risk cesarean delivery rate was lowest for the SMFM definition (12.65%), but not substantially different from the JC and AHRQ measures (13.12% and 13.29%, respectively). We empirically examined the SMFM definition to ensure its validity and utility. This refined definition performs similarly to existing measures and has the added advantage of clinical perspective, enhanced face validity, and ease of use. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. The influence of maternity units' intrapartum intervention rates and midwives' risk perception for women suitable for midwifery-led care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mead, Marianne M P; Kornbrot, Diana

    2004-03-01

    to test the hypothesis that midwives working in higher intervention units would have a higher perception of risk for the intrapartum care of women suitable for midwifery-led care than midwives working in lower intervention units. an initial retrospective analysis of the computerised records of 9887 healthy Caucasian women in spontaneous labour enabled the categorisation of 11 units as either 'lower intrapartum intervention' or 'higher intrapartum intervention' units. A survey of the midwives involved in intrapartum care in these 11 units, using standardised scenario questionnaires, was used to investigate midwives' options for intrapartum interventions, their perceptions of intrapartum risk and the accuracy of these perceptions in the light of actual maternity outcomes. midwives working in maternity units that had a higher level of intervention generally perceived intrapartum risks to be higher than midwives working in lower intervention units. However, midwives generally underestimated the ability of women to progress normally and overestimated the advantages of technological interventions, in particular epidural analgesia. variations in intrapartum care cannot be solely explained by the characteristics of the women. The influence of the workplace culture plays a significant role in shaping midwives' perceptions of risk, but it seems even more likely that the medicalisation of childbirth has had an influence on midwives' appreciation of intrapartum risks. Intervention rates for low-risk births are often higher than recommended by research. The level of interventions varies across hospitals and higher rates are associated with higher perception of risk by midwives. Attention needs to be given to the influence the workplace plays in shaping midwives' perception of risk; and to the effect of organisational culture on intervention rates.

  16. Relationship of detection rate of PET cancer screening examinees and risk factors. Analysis of background of examinees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shibata, Koji; Uno, Kimiichi; Arai, Masami; Matsuura, Masaaki; Yoshida, Teruhiko; Momose, Toshimitsu; Ohtomo, Kuni

    2011-01-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET) cancer screening is performed widely in Japan as opportunistic screening, but no study has focused on the correlation with various cancer risk factors and the seeking bias of examinees and cancer detection rate. Analyzing our large series of PET cancer screening data, correlations with cancer detection rates according to general cancer risk factors and PET detection survey were reviewed, and the selection bias of the medical examinees was determined. 19189 examinees who underwent PET cancer screening were enrolled. Using logistic-regression analysis, we analyzed correlations between smoking history/drinking history/cancer family history and detection rates of thyroid cancer/breast cancer/colorectal cancer/lung cancer, which are the main malignancies detected in PET cancer screening. In addition, we evaluated seeking bias of examinees, analyzing correlations between the presence of cancer risk factors and prior screening checkups at other institutions to our PET cancer screening using a matched case-control study. Cancer detection rates by FDG-PET were 1.17% (224/19189), being much higher than those of standard cancer mass screenings. In males, statistically significant correlations were seen between lung cancer and smoking, and between prostate cancer and a family history of prostate cancer, but not between the detection rates of three other types of cancer (thyroid cancer/lung cancer/colorectal cancer) and other cancer risk factors. In females, detection rates of four types of cancer (thyroid cancer/lung cancer/colorectal cancer/breast cancer) were significantly higher in the examinees without cancer risks, and subgroup analysis according to types of cancer did not indicate significant correlations either. The matched case-control study evaluating seeking bias indicated that a significant proportion of the examinees with cancer risks had undergone prior cancer screening at other institutions. Our study indicated that there was

  17. Sustainability : Politics and governance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heinrichs, Harald; Biermann, Frank

    2016-01-01

    he article gives an overview of global sustainability policy and politics. It is shown how international policy making on sustainable development has progressed from environmental policy toward recent approaches of Earth system governance. Key challenges of international sustainability politics are

  18. Political Economy of Finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.

    2013-01-01

    This survey reviews how a recent political economy literature helps explaining variation in governance, competition, funding composition and access to credit. Evolution in political institutions can account for financial evolution, and appear critical to explain rapid changes in financial structure,

  19. Politics, Security, Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wæver, Ole

    2011-01-01

    theory is found to ‘act politically’ through three structural features that systematically shape the political effects of using the theory. The article further discusses – on the basis of the preceding articles in the special issue – three emerging debates around securitization theory: ethics......This article outlines three ways of analysing the ‘politics of securitization’, emphasizing an often-overlooked form of politics practised through theory design. The structure and nature of a theory can have systematic political implications. Analysis of this ‘politics of securitization......’ is distinct from both the study of political practices of securitization and explorations of competing concepts of politics among security theories. It means tracking what kinds of analysis the theory can produce and whether such analysis systematically impacts real-life political struggles. Securitization...

  20. A Political, Economic, Social, Technology, Legal and Environmental (PESTLE) Approach for Risk Identification of the Tidal Industry in the United Kingdom

    OpenAIRE

    Kolios, Athanasios J.; Read, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of renewable and especially tidal energy through a political, economic, social, technology, legal and environmental (PESTLE) analysis approach and by reviewing the most up to date relevant literature. The study focuses on the United Kingdom given the favourable environmental resources for such technologies; the number of different design concepts that are currently under development as well as the research funding that has been invested over the la...

  1. Implications of supermarket access, neighbourhood walkability and poverty rates for diabetes risk in an employee population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrick, Cynthia J; Yount, Byron W; Eyler, Amy A

    2016-08-01

    Diabetes is a growing public health problem, and the environment in which people live and work may affect diabetes risk. The goal of the present study was to examine the association between multiple aspects of environment and diabetes risk in an employee population. This was a retrospective cross-sectional analysis. Home environment variables were derived using employees' zip code. Descriptive statistics were run on all individual- and zip-code-level variables, stratified by diabetes risk and worksite. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was then conducted to determine the strongest associations with diabetes risk. Data were collected from employee health fairs in a Midwestern health system, 2009-2012. The data set contains 25 227 unique individuals across four years of data. From this group, using an individual's first entry into the database, 15 522 individuals had complete data for analysis. The prevalence of high diabetes risk in this population was 2·3 %. There was significant variability in individual- and zip-code-level variables across worksites. From the multivariable analysis, living in a zip code with higher percentage of poverty and higher walk score was positively associated with high diabetes risk, while living in a zip code with higher supermarket density was associated with a reduction in high diabetes risk. Our study underscores the important relationship between poverty, home neighbourhood environment and diabetes risk, even in a relatively healthy employed population, and suggests a role for the employer in promoting health.

  2. A multicriteria approach for rating the credit risk of financial institutions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baourakis, G.; Conisescu, M.; Dijk, van G.; Pardalos, P.M.; Zopounidis, C.

    2009-01-01

    Within the new bank regulatory context, the assessment of the credit risk of financial institutions is an important issue for supervising authorities and investors. This study explores the possibility of a developing risk assessment model for financial institutions using a multicriteria

  3. Comparing Political Communication

    OpenAIRE

    Pfetsch, Barbara; Esser, Frank

    2012-01-01

    This chapter describes the maturation of comparative political communications as a sub-discipline and defines its conceptual core. It then lays out the concept of “political communication system”. At the macro-level, this model captures the patterns of interaction between media and politics as social systems; at the micro-level it captures the interactions between media and political actors as individuals or organizations. Comparative research in this tradition focuses on the structure of pol...

  4. Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

    2016-01-01

    Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

  5. The Relationship between the Risk of a Change of the Interest Rate and the Age of Entrepreneurs among Slovak SMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sobeková Majková Monika

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Young entrepreneurs and start-up founders are considered to be a drivers of innovation which is an important element of knowledge economy and competitiveness of each country. But their early age could be perceived as a factor causing the increasing impact of the credit risk because young entrepreneurs usually have a short company history, weak capital power and a lack of the guarantees. The main objective of this paper is to bring scientific evidence that the age of the entrepreneur should be considered as a factor with the significant impact on one part of the credit risk of a company– the risk of a change of the interest rate. The research was carried out among 438 Slovak companies in 2016. Based on Pearson´s chi-square analysis of the results of our research, we bring statistical evidence that age has a significant impact on the ability of the company to protect the firm against the change of the interest rate. We also found out that there is dependence between the age of the owner and the opinion that SMEs in the other EU countries have better loan conditions, especially lower interest rates, than Slovak SMEs. Research findings indicate that young entrepreneurs have problems with obtaining capital and increasing interest rates and collaterals because of their higher risk profile. But effective state support of young and innovative companies through venture financing can lead to increasing global competitiveness of the Slovak Republic.

  6. Western Political Consulting Techniques and Post-Soviet Political Technology in Political Campaigns in Latvia

    OpenAIRE

    Bērziņa, Ieva

    2012-01-01

    Western Political Consulting Techniques and Post-Soviet Political Technology in Political Campaigns in Latvia Ieva Dmitričenko Keywords: political campaignsm political consulting, political technology, parties, marketing, media Political campaigning is an international phenomenon, because there is a free flow of information, knowledge and human resource among practitioners of political campaigning in various countries. As a result political campaigning techniques that have proven to ...

  7. Analyzing Political Television Advertisements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burson, George

    1992-01-01

    Presents a lesson plan to help students understand that political advertisements often mislead, lie, or appeal to emotion. Suggests that the lesson will enable students to examine political advertisements analytically. Includes a worksheet to be used by students to analyze individual political advertisements. (DK)

  8. Political institutions since 1820

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Foldvari, Peter; Buzasi, Katalin

    2014-01-01

    Political institutions determine the degree of freedom people enjoy and their capacity to influence their social and political environment. This chapter provides historical evidence on the evolution of political institutions drawing upon two major research projects: the PolityIV dataset and the

  9. Political Education in School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dag, Nilgun; Sozer, Mehmet Akif; Sel, Burcu

    2015-01-01

    Political education is a term with negative associations and triggering prejudiced approaches and discourses--maybe some paranoid thoughts--like "keep politics away from education!" in the minds of several people. This article deals with "political education" phenomenon almost never discussed and made subject to scientific…

  10. What is Political Psychology?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deutsch, Morton

    1983-01-01

    Political psychology is the study of the bidirectional interaction of political and psychological processes. This academic discipline was founded after the First World War by Harold D. Lasswell. The content of political psychology is discussed and illustrative studies of the field are briefly summarized. (CS)

  11. Tracking Politics with POWER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, Silvio; Batista, David S.; Carvalho, Paula; Couto, Francisco M.; Silva, Mario J.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: POWER is an ontology of political processes and entities. It is designed for tracking politicians, political organizations and elections, both in mainstream and social media. The aim of this paper is to propose a data model to describe political agents and their relations over time. Design/methodology/approach: The authors propose a data…

  12. Kentucky physicians and politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    VonderHaar, W P; Monnig, W B

    1998-09-01

    Approximately 19% of Kentucky Physicians are KEMPAC members or contribute to state legislative and Gubernatorial candidates. This limited study of political activity indicates that a small percentage of physicians participate in the political process. Despite the small number of contributors to state legislative candidates, KMA's legislative and lobbying effort is highly effective and members receive high quality service and representation in the political arena.

  13. Standardized error severity score (ESS) ratings to quantify risk associated with child restraint system (CRS) and booster seat misuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudin-Brown, Christina M; Kramer, Chelsea; Langerak, Robin; Scipione, Andrea; Kelsey, Shelley

    2017-11-17

    Although numerous research studies have reported high levels of error and misuse of child restraint systems (CRS) and booster seats in experimental and real-world scenarios, conclusions are limited because they provide little information regarding which installation issues pose the highest risk and thus should be targeted for change. Beneficial to legislating bodies and researchers alike would be a standardized, globally relevant assessment of the potential injury risk associated with more common forms of CRS and booster seat misuse, which could be applied with observed error frequency-for example, in car seat clinics or during prototype user testing-to better identify and characterize the installation issues of greatest risk to safety. A group of 8 leading world experts in CRS and injury biomechanics, who were members of an international child safety project, estimated the potential injury severity associated with common forms of CRS and booster seat misuse. These injury risk error severity score (ESS) ratings were compiled and compared to scores from previous research that had used a similar procedure but with fewer respondents. To illustrate their application, and as part of a larger study examining CRS and booster seat labeling requirements, the new standardized ESS ratings were applied to objective installation performance data from 26 adult participants who installed a convertible (rear- vs. forward-facing) CRS and booster seat in a vehicle, and a child test dummy in the CRS and booster seat, using labels that only just met minimal regulatory requirements. The outcome measure, the risk priority number (RPN), represented the composite scores of injury risk and observed installation error frequency. Variability within the sample of ESS ratings in the present study was smaller than that generated in previous studies, indicating better agreement among experts on what constituted injury risk. Application of the new standardized ESS ratings to installation

  14. Cardiovascular risk factors among the inhabitants of an urban Congolese community: results of the VITARAA Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pascal M. Bayauli

    2014-09-01

    Conclusion: Our findings highlight the staggering rates of cardiovascular risk factors in sub-Saharan Africa and underscore the pressing need to move their prevention and control higher on the political agenda.

  15. Politically Active Home Economists: Their Socialization to Politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ley, Connie J.

    1980-01-01

    A nationwide study identified a pattern of political socialization for home economists who were politically active. The most outstanding feature of the politically active subjects was their perception that political activity is a professional role. (SK)

  16. A new way to ask the experts: Rating radioactive waste risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kerr, R.A.

    1996-01-01

    The possible risks of a proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain include the dozen or more young volcanos near by. Now some earth scientists have a new approach to evaluating hazards accounting for uncertainty at every step - 'expert elicitation.' This pulls together a panel of experts, carefully assesses the uncertainties of each of their views then mathematically combines their risk estimates along with the accompanying uncertainties. The article goes on to describe just such a panel which considered seismic hazards to Yucca Mountain, how they came to their conclusions, the arguments about the conclusions, and the future of expert elicitation in evaluating the risks of nuclear waste disposal

  17. Risk-based approach in valuation of workplace injury rate for transportation and construction industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pykhtin, Kirill; Simankina, Tatiana; Sharmanov, Vladimir; Kopytova, Anna

    2017-10-01

    The danger of injuries and accidents in various industries such as transportation and construction urges the government to control the occupational health and safety more strictly. However, in order to do so with the minimal costs modern risk management tools, have to be implemented. Risk-based approach is an essential tool for competent risk- assessment and used in a great variety of other countries, demonstrating great results in providing of safe working environment. The article describes the problems that the implementation of the method faces in Russia and suggests certain ways to resolve them.

  18. ARIES Oxide Production Program Assessment of Risk to Long-term Sustainable Production Rate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whitworth, Julia [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Lloyd, Jane Alexandria [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Majors, Harry W. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-05-04

    This report describes an assessment of risks and the development of a risk watch list for the ARIES Oxide Production Program conducted in the Plutonium Facility at LANL. The watch list is an active list of potential risks and opportunities that the management team periodically considers to maximize the likelihood of program success. The initial assessments were made in FY 16. The initial watch list was reviewed in September 2016. The initial report was not issued. Revision 1 has been developed based on management review of the original watch list and includes changes that occurred during FY-16.

  19. Mortality and recurrence rates among systemically untreated high risk breast cancer patients included in the DBCG 77 trials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Maj Britt; Nielsen, Torsten O.; Knoop, Ann S.

    2018-01-01

    Background: Following loco-regional treatment for early breast cancer accurate prognostication is essential for communicating benefits of systemic treatment. The aim of this study was to determine time to recurrence and long-term mortality rates in high risk patients according to patient characte......Background: Following loco-regional treatment for early breast cancer accurate prognostication is essential for communicating benefits of systemic treatment. The aim of this study was to determine time to recurrence and long-term mortality rates in high risk patients according to patient...... and EGFR positive. Multivariate categorical and fractional polynomials (MFP) models were used to construct prognostic subsets by clinicopathologic characteristics. Results: In a multivariate model, mortality rate was significantly associated with age, tumor size, nodal status, invasion, histological type...

  20. Ratings of Sovereign Risk and the Macroeconomics Fundamentals of the countries: a Study Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osvaldo Cândido da Silva Filho

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available To minimize the consequences of asymmetric information, the sovereign risk ratings are instruments that constitute a key piece in the determination of credit market conditions, essential to the growth of developing countries like Brazil. In the present work we studied based on macroeconomics foundations, a classification to sovereign risk ratings realized by the ratings agencies finding the classification using Artificial Neural Networks. We observed homogeneity degree between the attributions of agencies and macroeconomics foundations in the countries of sample which four of foundations seem to be more directly connected with these attributions. After, in a comparative static exercise, we use the model to make simulations of scenarios of the credit external conditions for the Brazilian economy, changing the macroeconomics foundations which we noted that agencies expected for more per capita income increasing and decrease of public debt. (Full article in Portuguese only

  1. Individual and Population Level Impact of Key HIV Risk Factors on HIV Incidence Rates in Durban, South Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gita Ramjee

    Full Text Available We aimed to estimate the individual and joint impact of age, marital status and diagnosis with sexually transmitted infections (STIs on HIV acquisition among young women at a population level in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. A total of 3,978 HIV seronegative women were recruited for four biomedical intervention trials from 2002-2009. Point and interval estimates of partial population attributable risk (PAR were used to quantify the proportion of HIV seroconversions which can be prevented if a combination of risk factors is eliminated from a target population. More than 70% of the observed HIV acquisitions were collectively attributed to the three risk factors: younger age (<25 years old, unmarried and not cohabiting with a stable/regular partner and diagnosis with STIs. Addressing these risks requires targeted structural, behavioural, biomedical and cultural interventions in order to impact on unacceptably high HIV incidence rates among young women and the population as a whole.

  2. Rates and risk factors of injury in CrossFit:A prospective cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Moran, Sebastian; Booker, Harry; Staines, Jacob; Williams, Sean

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUNDː CrossFit is a strength and conditioning programme that has gained widespread popularity since its inception approximately 15 years ago. However, at present little is known about the level of injury risk associated with this form of training. Movement competency, assessed using the Functional Movement Screen (FMS), has been identified as a risk factor for injury in numerous athletic populations, but its role in CrossFit participants is currently unclear. The aim of this study was t...

  3. European welfare regimes: Political orientations versus poverty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josifidis Kosta

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This inquiry analyzes how political orientations shape welfare states and labour market institutions when seeking to reduce poverty. In order to identify effects of these two key variables, we conduct a panel regression analysis that includes two poverty measures: poverty rates before and after social spending. This inquiry considers 14 EU countries, and in the period from 1995 to 2008, which are grouped according to welfare state regimes. We consider Social Democratic, Corporatist, Mediterranean and Liberal welfare state regimes. Panel regression results indicate that political orientation engenders no significant statistically measurable effects on poverty rates before social spending. Effects register, however, as significant when considering poverty rates after social spending. With respect to the first set of results, we advance two key explanations. First, we note a longer period of time is necessary in order to observe actual effects of political orientation on market generated poverty. Second, political parties with their respective programs do not register as influential enough to solve social problems related to income distribution when taken alone. Influences register as indirect and are expressed through changes in employment rates and social spending. The second set of results support the hypothesis that a selected political regime does indeed contribute to poverty reduction. In sum, political orientation and political regime does indeed affect poverty through welfare state institutions, as well as through labour market institutions.

  4. Rating agencies: role and influence of their sovereign credit risk assessment in the Euro area

    OpenAIRE

    Sibert, Anne

    2012-01-01

    Credit ratings have a huge impact on the access to and costs of funding, regardless whether the rated entity is a private enterprise or a sovereign borrower. Since the beginning of the financial crisis there has been a vivid and controversial debate about methods, timing and procedures used by these agencies. In this compilation of five notes provided by members of the Monetary Expert Panel the role of the rating agencies and their influence on the euro area is discussed in more detail.

  5. Political Science and Political Geography: Neglected Areas, Areas for Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laponce, J. A.

    1983-01-01

    Since at least the 1950s, political scientists have tended to ignore the possible contributions of political geography to political science because of a move away from considering spatial factors on political structure. Political scientists need to use more information from geography to enhance their understanding of political power and conflict.…

  6. Modeling and estimating the jump risk of exchange rates: Applications to RMB

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yiming; Tong, Hanfei

    2008-11-01

    In this paper we propose a new type of continuous-time stochastic volatility model, SVDJ, for the spot exchange rate of RMB, and other foreign currencies. In the model, we assume that the change of exchange rate can be decomposed into two components. One is the normally small-cope innovation driven by the diffusion motion; the other is a large drop or rise engendered by the Poisson counting process. Furthermore, we develop a MCMC method to estimate our model. Empirical results indicate the significant existence of jumps in the exchange rate. Jump components explain a large proportion of the exchange rate change.

  7. International Contexts for Political Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harber, Clive

    1991-01-01

    Uses international examples of the ways in which political learning takes place--indoctrination, political socialization, and political education--to suggest that open and democratic political education is not common, even in democracies. (SK)

  8. Putting politics first.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, Jacob S

    2008-01-01

    The greatest lesson of the failure of comprehensive health reform in the early 1990s is that politics comes first. Even the best-laid policy plans are worthless if they lack the political support to pass. Putting politics first means avoiding the overarching mistake of the Clinton reformers: envisioning a grand policy compromise rather than hammering out a real political compromise. It also means addressing the inevitable fears of those who believe that they are well protected by our eroding employment-based system. And it means formulating political strategies that are premised on the contemporary realities of the hyperpolarized U.S. political environment, rather than wistfully recalled images of the bipartisan politics of old.

  9. Religion and Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bandak, Andreas

    2018-01-01

    Religion and politics provide an interesting juxtaposition. On the one hand, both may initially come across as rather self-evident categories, with religion dealing with human perceptions and what people hold as sacred, and politics addressing the control and governance of fellow human beings....... Nonetheless, such a simple opposition should only work as a starting point for an interrogation of both terms and how they have come to look and function as empirical and analytical categories. Focusing on the ways that religion is played out in relation to politics reveals different historical and cultural...... constellations and positions, which can be highlighted as variations of religion as politics, religion in politics, religion out of politics, and religion not politics....

  10. Political Budget Cycles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aaskoven, Lasse; Lassen, David Dreyer

    2017-01-01

    The political budget cycle—how elections affect government fiscal policy—is one of the most studied subjects in political economy and political science. The key theoretical question is whether incumbent governments can time or structure public finances in ways that improve their chances of reelec......The political budget cycle—how elections affect government fiscal policy—is one of the most studied subjects in political economy and political science. The key theoretical question is whether incumbent governments can time or structure public finances in ways that improve their chances...... on political budget cycles have recently focused on conditions under which such cycles are likely to obtain. Much recent research focuses on subnational settings, allowing comparisons of governments in similar institutional environments, and a consensus on the presences of cycles in public finances...

  11. The politics of researching global health politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rushton, Simon

    2015-01-01

    In this comment, I build on Shiffman’s call for the global health community to more deeply investigate structural and productive power. I highlight two challenges we must grapple with as social scientists carrying out the types of investigation that Shiffman proposes: the politics of challenging the powerful; and the need to investigate types of expertise that have traditionally been thought of as ‘outside’ global health. In doing so, I argue that moving forward with the agenda Shiffman sets out requires social scientists interested in the global politics of health to be reflexive about our own exercise of structural and productive power and the fact that researching global health politics is itself a political undertaking. PMID:25905482

  12. Rating agencies : Role and influence of their sovereign credit risk assessment in the Eurozone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eijffinger, S.C.W.

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the role of credit rating agencies (CRAs) during the 2010–11 EU sovereign debt crisis is assessed. It is concluded that rating agencies lag behind markets, that their business model is flawed, and that the lack of competition renders the big three CRAs with too strong a market

  13. Recruitment Methods and Show Rates to a Prostate Cancer Early Detection Program for High-Risk Men: A Comprehensive Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giri, Veda N.; Coups, Elliot J.; Ruth, Karen; Goplerud, Julia; Raysor, Susan; Kim, Taylor Y.; Bagden, Loretta; Mastalski, Kathleen; Zakrzewski, Debra; Leimkuhler, Suzanne; Watkins-Bruner, Deborah

    2009-01-01

    Purpose Men with a family history (FH) of prostate cancer (PCA) and African American (AA) men are at higher risk for PCA. Recruitment and retention of these high-risk men into early detection programs has been challenging. We report a comprehensive analysis on recruitment methods, show rates, and participant factors from the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program (PRAP), which is a prospective, longitudinal PCA screening study. Materials and Methods Men 35–69 years are eligible if they have a FH of PCA, are AA, or have a BRCA1/2 mutation. Recruitment methods were analyzed with respect to participant demographics and show to the first PRAP appointment using standard statistical methods Results Out of 707 men recruited, 64.9% showed to the initial PRAP appointment. More individuals were recruited via radio than from referral or other methods (χ2 = 298.13, p < .0001). Men recruited via radio were more likely to be AA (p<0.001), less educated (p=0.003), not married or partnered (p=0.007), and have no FH of PCA (p<0.001). Men recruited via referrals had higher incomes (p=0.007). Men recruited via referral were more likely to attend their initial PRAP visit than those recruited by radio or other methods (χ2 = 27.08, p < .0001). Conclusions This comprehensive analysis finds that radio leads to higher recruitment of AA men with lower socioeconomic status. However, these are the high-risk men that have lower show rates for PCA screening. Targeted motivational measures need to be studied to improve show rates for PCA risk assessment for these high-risk men. PMID:19758657

  14. Rethinking political correctness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ely, Robin J; Meyerson, Debra E; Davidson, Martin N

    2006-09-01

    Legal and cultural changes over the past 40 years ushered unprecedented numbers of women and people of color into companies' professional ranks. Laws now protect these traditionally underrepresented groups from blatant forms of discrimination in hiring and promotion. Meanwhile, political correctness has reset the standards for civility and respect in people's day-to-day interactions. Despite this obvious progress, the authors' research has shown that political correctness is a double-edged sword. While it has helped many employees feel unlimited by their race, gender, or religion,the PC rule book can hinder people's ability to develop effective relationships across race, gender, and religious lines. Companies need to equip workers with skills--not rules--for building these relationships. The authors offer the following five principles for healthy resolution of the tensions that commonly arise over difference: Pause to short-circuit the emotion and reflect; connect with others, affirming the importance of relationships; question yourself to identify blind spots and discover what makes you defensive; get genuine support that helps you gain a broader perspective; and shift your mind-set from one that says, "You need to change," to one that asks, "What can I change?" When people treat their cultural differences--and related conflicts and tensions--as opportunities to gain a more accurate view of themselves, one another, and the situation, trust builds and relationships become stronger. Leaders should put aside the PC rule book and instead model and encourage risk taking in the service of building the organization's relational capacity. The benefits will reverberate through every dimension of the company's work.

  15. The impact of lifestyle risk factors on the rate of infection after surgery for a fracture of the ankle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, L L; Møller, A M; Brorson, S

    2017-01-01

    .PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed all patients who underwent internal fixation of a fracture of the ankle between 2008 and 2013. The primary outcome was the rate of deep infection and the secondary outcome was any surgical site infection (SSI). Associations with the risk factors and possible.......032) in all analyses. Alcohol overuse was similarly associated, though significant only in unadjusted analyses. Surprisingly, smoking did not yield statistically significant associations with infections.CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that obesity and possibly alcohol overuse are independent risk factors...

  16. Risk Assessment of Diabetes Mellitus by Chaotic Globals to Heart Rate Variability via Six Power Spectra

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garner David M.

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: The priniciple objective here is to analyze cardiovascular dynamics in diabetic subjects by actions related to heart rate variability (HRV. The correlation of chaotic globals is vital to evaluate the probability of dynamical diseases.

  17. Tax Rates Effects on the Risk Level of Listed Viet Nam Wholesale ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    The emerging stock market in Viet Nam has been developed since 2006 and was affected ... positive relationship with the increasing levels of tax rate. Finally, this ... Hypothesis 1: because tax may strongly affect business returns, changing tax.

  18. Resting Heart Rate Is Not a Good Predictor of a Clustered Cardiovascular Risk Score in Adolescents: The HELENA Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Augusto César Ferreira de Moraes

    Full Text Available Resting heart rate (RHR reflects sympathetic nerve activity a significant association between RHR and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality has been reported in some epidemiologic studies.To analyze the predictive power and accuracy of RHR as a screening measure for individual and clustered cardiovascular risk in adolescents. The study comprised 769 European adolescents (376 boys participating in the HELENA cross-sectional study (2006-2008 were included in this study. Measurements on systolic blood pressure, HOMA index, triglycerides, TC/HDL-c, VO2máx and the sum of four skinfolds were obtained, and a clustered cardiovascular disease (CVD risk index was computed. The receiver operating characteristics curve was applied to calculate the power and accuracy of RHR to predict individual and clustered CVD risk factors.RHR showed low accuracy for screening CVD risk factors in both sexes (range 38.5%-54.4% in boys and 45.5%-54.3% in girls. Low specificity's (15.6%-19.7% in boys; 18.1%-20.0% in girls were also found. Nevertheless, the sensitivities were moderate-to-high (61.4%-89.1% in boys; 72.9%-90.3% in girls.RHR is a poor predictor of individual CVD risk factors and of clustered CVD and the estimates based on RHR are not accurate. The use of RHR as an indicator of CVD risk in adolescents may produce a biased screening of cardiovascular health in both sexes.

  19. School of Political Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. D. Voskresensky

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Out of all the departments of political sciences in Russia - the Department at MGIMO-University is probably the oldest one. In fact it is very young. While MGIMO-University is celebrating its 70th anniversary the Department of Political Sciences turns 15. Despite the fact that political analyst is a relatively new profession in Russia, it acquired a legal standing only in the 1990s, the political science school at MGIMO-University is almost as old as the university itself. Unlike many other universities, focused on the training teachers of political science or campaign managers MGIMO-University has developed its own unique political science school of "full cycle", where students grow into political sciences from a zero level up to the highest qualifications as teachers and researchers, and campaign managers, consultants and practitioners. The uniqueness of the school of political science at MGIMO-University allows its institutional incarnation -the Department of Political Science - to offer prospective studentsa training in a wide range of popular specialties and specializations, while ensuring a deep theoretical and practical basis of the training. Studying at MGIMO-University traditionally includes enhanced linguistic component (at least two foreign languages. For students of international relations and political science learning foreign languages is particularly important.It allows not only to communicate, but also to produce expertise and knowledge in foreign languages.

  20. estimated glomerular filtration rate and risk of survival in acute stroke

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-03-03

    Mar 3, 2014 ... Design: A prospective observational cross-sectional study. Setting: Medical ... stroke sub-type, blood sugar, serum creatinine, serum urea and ... history of hypertension and diabetes mellitus, history of alcohol ... Declining renal function takes its toll on homeostasis .... risk of stroke: meta-analysis. BMJ 2010 ...

  1. 13 CFR 120.1060 - Confidentiality of Reports, Risk Ratings and related Confidential Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... other than SBA's Lender oversight and SBA's portfolio management purposes. An SBA Lender, Intermediary... conjunction with SBA's Lender Oversight Program and SBA's portfolio management (for purposes of this... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Confidentiality of Reports, Risk...

  2. A simultaneous approach to the estimation of risk aversion and the subjective time discount rate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, A.S.; van Praag, B.M.S.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we analyze a sample of 1832 individuals who responded to six randomly generated lottery questions that differ with respect to chance, prize and the timing of the draw. Using a model that explicitly allows for consumption smoothing, we obtain an estimate of relative risk aversion of 82.

  3. Child maltreatment in numbers : a multimethod study of year prevalence rates and risk factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Euser, Saskia

    2013-01-01

    How often does child maltreatment occur in the Netherlands and which factors increase the risk of child maltreatment? In this thesis we describe the findings of two epidemiological studies aimed at answering these questions. First, in the Netherlands’ Prevalence study on Maltreatment of children and

  4. American Indians, hunting and fishing rates, risk, and the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burger, J.

    1999-01-01

    Hunting, fishing, and recreational rates of 276 American Indians attending a festival at Fort Hall, near the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), were examined. Nearly half of the sample lived on the Fort Hall Reservation, and half were American Indians from elsewhere in the western United States. An additional 44 White people attending the festival were also interviewed. The hypothesis that there are differences in hunting, fishing, and recreational rates as a function of tribal affiliation, educational level, gender, and age was examined. Information on hunting and fishing rates are central for understanding potential exposure scenarios for American Indians if the Department of Energy's INEEL lands are ever opened to public access, and the data are important because of the existence of tribal treaties that govern the legal and cultural rights of the Shoshone-Bannock regarding INEEL lands. Variations in hunting, fishing, and photography rates were explained by tribal affiliation (except fishing), gender, age, and schooling. Hunting rates were significantly higher for Indians (both those living on Fort Hall and others) than Whites. Men engaged in significantly higher rates of outdoor activities than women (except for photography). Potential and current hunting and fishing on and adjacent to INEEL was more similar among the local Whites and Fort Hall Indians than between these two groups and other American Indians

  5. Corruption, Political Connections, and Municipal Finance

    OpenAIRE

    Alexander W. Butler; Larry Fauver; Sandra Mortal

    2009-01-01

    We show that state corruption and political connections have strong effects on municipal bond sales and underwriting. Higher state corruption is associated with greater credit risk and higher bond yields. Corrupt states can eliminate the corruption yield penalty by purchasing credit enhancements. Underwriting fees were significantly higher during an era when underwriters made political contributions to win underwriting business. This pay-to-play underwriting fee premium exists only for negoti...

  6. Premorbid teacher-rated social functioning predicts adult schizophrenia-spectrum disorder: A high-risk prospective investigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tsuji, Thomas; Kline, Emily; Sorensen, Holger J.

    2013-01-01

    Social functioning deficits are a core component of schizophrenia spectrum disorders, and may emerge years prior to the onset of diagnosable illness. The current study prospectively examines the relation between teacher-rated childhood social dysfunction and later mental illness among participants...... who were at genetic high-risk for schizophrenia and controls (n=244). The teacher-rated social functioning scale significantly predicted psychiatric outcomes (schizophrenia-spectrum vs. other psychiatric disorder vs. no mental illness). Poor premorbid social functioning appears to constitute a marker...

  7. Incident rate and risk factors for tuberculosis among patients with type 2 diabetes: retrospective cohort study in Shanghai, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Hanbo; Shi, Yan; Li, Yanyun; Shen, Xin; Li, Rui; Yang, Qundi; Pan, Qichao; Yan, Fei

    2017-07-01

    To examine the incident rate of tuberculosis (TB) and its associates among adults with type 2 diabetes in Shanghai, China. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among 170 399 patients with type 2 diabetes aged ≥18 years who were registered in Shanghai community-based diabetes management system between 2004 and 2009. Their TB status was tracked until 31 December 2014. Cox regression was performed to identify the risk factors for TB. We documented 785 new TB cases during 654 977 person-years of follow-up. The incident rate of TB was 224.20 (206.69, 243.16) per 100 000 person-years among men and 51.34 (44.75, 58.92) per 100 000 person-years among women. A 1-unit increase of BMI was associated with a risk reduction in 16% (P < 0.01) for men and a 14% (P < 0.01) reduction for women. TB cases were more likely to be insulin-dependent [men: hazard ratio = 2.13 (1.29, 3.53); women: 3.28 (1.28, 8.39)] and had a poor glucose level initially [men: 1.21 (1.15, 1.27); women: 1.27 (1.18, 1.37)]. The risk factor for TB specific to men was a young age at diagnosis of diabetes, and the protective factor specific to women was actively engaging in physical activity. TB incident rate among patients with type 2 diabetes was substantially higher among men than among women. The risk of TB was reversely associated with initial BMI. The severity of poor glucose control among patients with diabetes was also linearly associated with the risk of TB. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Changing rates of suicide ideation and attempts among Inuit youth: a gender-based analysis of risk and protective factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Sarah L; Geoffroy, Dominique; Chachamovich, Eduardo; Kirmayer, Laurence J

    2015-04-01

    Inuit in Canada currently suffer from one of the highest rates of suicide in the world. The objective of this study was to explore the prevalence of suicide ideations and attempts among 15-24 year olds living in Nunavik, Québec, and to explore risk and protective factors of suicide attempts as a function of gender. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2004 across Nunavik. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were conducted. A total of 22% of young males and 39% of females adults reported past suicidal attempts. Gender differences were observed in relation to associated risk and protective factors as well as degree of exposure to risk factors. Suicide prevention must include alcohol and drug prevention programs and rehabilitation services, interventions to reduce physical and sexual violence and their long-term impacts on Inuit youth, as well as exposure to culturally meaningful activities. © 2014 The American Association of Suicidology.

  9. Funding Liquidity Risk and Deviations from Interest-Rate Parity During the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009

    OpenAIRE

    Cho-Hoi Hui; Hans Genberg; Tsz-Kin Chung

    2009-01-01

    Significant deviations from covered interest parity were observed during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. This paper finds that before the failure of Lehman Brothers the market-wide funding liquidity risk was the main determinant of these deviations in terms of the premiums on swap-implied US dollar interest rates for the euro, British pound, Hong Kong dollar, Japanese yen, Singapore dollar and Swiss Franc. This suggests that the deviations can be explained by the existence and nature of li...

  10. Foreign exchange risk management : how are the largest non-financial companies in Norway managing their foreign exchange rate exposure?

    OpenAIRE

    Eriksen, Krister; Wedøe, Ola

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis is to investigate how the largest non-financial companies in Norway manage their foreign exchange rate exposure. This is investigated through the use of a survey distributed to a sample the largest non-financial firms in Norway. According to our results, the largest non-financial companies in Norway have a predefined strategy for managing foreign exchange risk, which is defined by the board of directors or by the management in the organisation. The companies’ mai...

  11. Evaluation of a consumer-oriented internet health care report card: the risk of quality ratings based on mortality data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krumholz, Harlan M; Rathore, Saif S; Chen, Jersey; Wang, Yongfei; Radford, Martha J

    2002-03-13

    Health care "report cards" have attracted significant consumer interest, particularly publicly available Internet health care quality rating systems. However, the ability of these ratings to discriminate between hospitals is not known. To determine whether hospital ratings for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) mortality from a prominent Internet hospital rating system accurately discriminate between hospitals' performance based on process of care and outcomes. Data from the Cooperative Cardiovascular Project, a retrospective systematic medical record review of 141 914 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries 65 years or older hospitalized with AMI at 3363 US acute care hospitals during a 4- to 8-month period between January 1994 and February 1996 were compared with ratings obtained from HealthGrades.com (1-star: worse outcomes than predicted, 5-star: better outcomes than predicted) based on 1994-1997 Medicare data. Quality indicators of AMI care, including use of acute reperfusion therapy, aspirin, beta-blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors; 30-day mortality. Patients treated at higher-rated hospitals were significantly more likely to receive aspirin (admission: 75.4% 5-star vs 66.4% 1-star, P for trend =.001; discharge: 79.7% 5-star vs 68.0% 1-star, P =.001) and beta-blockers (admission: 54.8% 5-star vs 35.7% 1-star, P =.001; discharge: 63.3% 5-star vs 52.1% 1-star, P =.001), but not angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (59.6% 5-star vs 57.4% 1-star, P =.40). Acute reperfusion therapy rates were highest for patients treated at 2-star hospitals (60.6%) and lowest for 5-star hospitals (53.6% 5-star, P =.008). Risk-standardized 30-day mortality rates were lower for patients treated at higher-rated than lower-rated hospitals (21.9% 1-star vs 15.9% 5-star, P =.001). However, there was marked heterogeneity within rating groups and substantial overlap of individual hospitals across rating strata for mortality and process of care; only 3.1% of comparisons

  12. Establishing Political Deliberation Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rose, Jeremy; Sæbø, Øystein

    2008-01-01

    The extension and transformation of political participation is dependent on widespread deliberation supported by information and communication technologies.  The most commonly found examples of these eParticipation systems are political discussion forums.  Though much of the discussion...... of these technologies is conducted in the eGovernment and (particularly) the eDemocracy literature, political discussion forums present a distinct set of design and management challenges which relate directly to IS concerns. In this article we analyze problems in establishing political deliberation systems under five...... headings: stakeholder engagement, web platform design, web platform management, political process re-shaping and evaluation and improvement. We review the existing literature and present a longitudinal case study of a political discussion forum: the Norwegian DemokratiTorget (Democracy Square).  We define...

  13. Comparing Political Journalism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Comparing Political Journalism is a systematic, in-depth study of the factors that shape and influence political news coverage today. Using techniques drawn from the growing field of comparative political communication, an international group of contributors analyse political news content drawn...... Comparing Political Journalism offers an unparalleled scope in assessing the implications for the ongoing transformation of Western media systems, and addresses core concepts of central importance to students and scholars of political communication world-wide....... from newspapers, television news, and news websites from 16 countries, to assess what kinds of media systems are most conducive to producing quality journalism. Underpinned by key conceptual themes, such as the role that the media are expected to play in democracies and quality of coverage...

  14. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 26 Appendix Y - Historical Ridging Rate.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  15. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 27 Appendix Z - Forecast Ridging Rate.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  16. Rates and risks for co-morbid depression in patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pouwer, F; Beekman, Aartjan T F; Nijpels, G

    2003-01-01

    factors of co-morbid depression in a community-based sample of older adults, comparing Type 2 diabetic patients with healthy control subjects. METHODS: A large (n=3107) community-based study in Dutch adults (55-85 years of age) was conducted. Pervasive depression was defined as a CES-D score greater than...... could play an essential role in the development of depression in Type 2 diabetes. These findings can enable clinicians and researchers to identify high-risk groups and set up prevention and treatment programs.......AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: There is accumulating evidence that depression is common in people with Type 2 diabetes. However, most prevalence-studies are uncontrolled and could also be inaccurate from selection-bias, as they are conducted in specialized treatment settings. We studied the prevalence and risk...

  17. Good prospects overcome domestic politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    The paper discusses the South American gas and oil industries. Opening ever wider to private investment, the continent is attracting a flood of foreign and local firms, pushing drilling and production rates still higher. This is despite a rash of political problems in many countries, including guerrillas, environmentalists, crooked officials and border disputes. Separate evaluations are given for Venezuela, Argentina, Colombia, Brazil, Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, Chile, and briefly for Falkland Islands, Paraguay, Suriname, and Barbados

  18. Effect of Birth Cohort on Risk of Hip Fracture: Age-Specific Incidence Rates in the Framingham Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samelson, Elizabeth J.; Zhang, Yuqing; Kiel, Douglas P.; Hannan, Marian T.; Felson, David T.

    2002-01-01

    Objectives. This study examined the effect of birth cohort on incidence rates of hip fracture among women and men in the Framingham Study. Methods. Age-specific incidence rates of first hip fracture were presented according to tertile of year of birth for 5209 participants of the Framingham Study, a population-based cohort followed since 1948. Sex-specific incidence rate ratios were calculated by Cox regression to assess the relation between birth cohort and hip fracture incidence. Results. An increasing trend in hip fracture incidence rates was observed with year of birth for women (trend, P = .05) and men (trend, P = .03). Relative to those born from 1887 to 1900 (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.0), age-specific incidence rates were greatest in the most recent birth cohort, born from 1911 to 1921 (IRR = 1.4 for women, IRR = 2.0 for men), and intermediate in those born from 1901 to 1910 (IRR = 1.2 for women, IRR = 1.5 for men). Conclusions. Results suggest risk of hip fracture is increasing for successive birth cohorts. Projections that fail to account for the increase in rates associated with birth cohort underestimate the future public health impact of hip fracture in the United States. PMID:11988460

  19. High-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Alone for Localized Prostate Cancer in Patients at Moderate or High Risk of Biochemical Recurrence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoskin, Peter [Cancer Centre, Mount Vernon Hospital, Northwood, Middlesex (United Kingdom); Rojas, Ana, E-mail: arc03@btconnect.com [Cancer Centre, Mount Vernon Hospital, Northwood, Middlesex (United Kingdom); Lowe, Gerry; Bryant, Linda; Ostler, Peter; Hughes, Rob; Milner, Jessica; Cladd, Helen [Cancer Centre, Mount Vernon Hospital, Northwood, Middlesex (United Kingdom)

    2012-03-15

    Purpose: To evaluate genitourinary (GU) and gastrointestinal (GI) morbidity and biochemical control of disease in patients with localized prostate adenocarcinoma treated with escalating doses per fraction of high-dose rate brachytherapy alone. Methods and Materials: A total of 197 patients were treated with 34 Gy in four fractions, 36 Gy in four fractions, 31.5 Gy in three fractions, or 26 Gy in two fractions. Median follow-up times were 60, 54, 36, and 6 months, respectively. Results: Incidence of early Grade {>=} 3 GU morbidity was 3% to 7%, and Grade 4 was 0% to 4%. During the first 12 weeks, the highest mean International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) value was 14, and between 6 months and 5 years it was 8. Grade 3 or 4 early GI morbidity was not observed. The 3-year actuarial rate of Grade 3 GU was 3% to 16%, and was 3% to 7% for strictures requiring surgery (4-year rate). An incidence of 1% Grade 3 GI events was seen at 3 years. Late Grade 4 GU or GI events were not observed. At 3 years, 99% of patients with intermediate-risk and 91% with high-risk disease were free of biochemical relapse (log-rank p = 0.02). Conclusions: There was no significant difference in urinary and rectal morbidity between schedules. Biochemical control of disease in patients with intermediate and high risk of relapse was good.

  20. FACTORS THAT MAY DETERMINE THE RECOVERY RATE OF FINANCIAL RISK DAMAGES

    OpenAIRE

    Nicoleta Diana Rosioru

    2015-01-01

    The information about the performance of a company, especially about its profitability, are useful to the consideration of potential changes of the economic resources, which the company might further control and the forecast of the ability to generate treasury flows by the existent resources. Also, based on the performance, judgments are expressed, aiming the efficiency whereof the company may use new resources. The performance of company may be influenced by its financial risk. The financial...

  1. The Dynamics of Foreign Exchange Rate Risk Management in Different Enterprises

    OpenAIRE

    Khaldoun M. Al-Qaisi

    2012-01-01

    Foreign currency exchange management is very crucial in firms with foreign deals. The objective of this research was to study the management practices in Jordanian firms of foreign exchange management and its risk on these firms. A questionnaire was used to collect data using a stratified random sample. The results show that the firms interested with foreign currency exchange management as it forms more that 50% of its deals. Most of firms indicated that they have a policy for foreign exchang...

  2. A longitudinal study investigating neural processing of speech envelope modulation rates in children with (a family risk for) dyslexia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vos, Astrid; Vanvooren, Sophie; Vanderauwera, Jolijn; Ghesquière, Pol; Wouters, Jan

    2017-08-01

    Recent evidence suggests that a fundamental deficit in the synchronization of neural oscillations to temporal information in speech may underlie phonological processing problems in dyslexia. Since previous studies were performed cross-sectionally in school-aged children or adults, developmental aspects of neural auditory processing in relation to reading acquisition and dyslexia remain to be investigated. The present longitudinal study followed 68 children during development from pre-reader (5 years old) to beginning reader (7 years old) and more advanced reader (9 years old). Thirty-six children had a family risk for dyslexia and 14 children eventually developed dyslexia. EEG recordings of auditory steady-state responses to 4 and 20 Hz modulations, corresponding to syllable and phoneme rates, were collected at each point in time. Our results demonstrate an increase in neural synchronization to phoneme-rate modulations around the onset of reading acquisition. This effect was negatively correlated with later reading and phonological skills, indicating that children who exhibit the largest increase in neural synchronization to phoneme rates, develop the poorest reading and phonological skills. Accordingly, neural synchronization to phoneme-rate modulations was found to be significantly higher in beginning and more advanced readers with dyslexia. We found no developmental effects regarding neural synchronization to syllable rates, nor any effects of a family risk for dyslexia. Altogether, our findings suggest that the onset of reading instruction coincides with an increase in neural responsiveness to phoneme-rate modulations, and that the extent of this increase is related to (the outcome of) reading development. Hereby, dyslexic children persistently demonstrate atypically high neural synchronization to phoneme rates from the beginning of reading acquisition onwards. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Chaos theory in politics

    CERN Document Server

    Erçetin, Şefika; Tekin, Ali

    2014-01-01

    The present work investigates global politics and political implications of social science and management with the aid of the latest complexity and chaos theories. Until now, deterministic chaos and nonlinear analysis have not been a focal point in this area of research. This book remedies this deficiency by utilizing these methods in the analysis of the subject matter. The authors provide the reader a detailed analysis on politics and its associated applications with the help of chaos theory, in a single edited volume.

  4. The Politics of Dissent

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bak Jørgensen, Martin; Agustin, Oscar Garcia

    2015-01-01

    In Politics of Dissent the framework for analysing politics of dissent is outlined. The outlined framework problematizes the conventional understandings of dissent as something characterising individual historical figures. The chapter provides both a theoretical underpinning of dissent as well...... as an approach to investigate the current contestations taking place on a global level. Politics of dissent entails the questioning of consensus. It conceptualises dissent as a collective process taking place on everyday level. It conceptualises moments of dissent. Finally it investigates the emergent...

  5. Astronomy and Politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, John M.

    The relationship between astronomy and politics is a complex but important part of understanding the practice of astronomy throughout history. This chapter explores some of the ways that astronomy, astrology, and politics have interacted, placing particular focus on the way that astronomy and astrology have been used for political purposes by both people in power and people who wish to influence a ruler's policy. Also discussed are the effects that politics has had on the development of astronomy and, in particular, upon the recording and preservation of astronomical knowledge.

  6. Defining political community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sladeček Michal M.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the concept of political community, its constitution and value. The starting point is that the concept of community is not sufficiently recognized in modern political theories, as well as in contemporary liberal theory. In the last two decades communitarian and republican political theory attempted to revitalize this notion. The first part of the paper elaborates on the polemics between these three theoretical orientations. The concluding part examines the possibilities and prospect for stable political community in conditions of pluralism of particular social communities and ethnocultural heterogeneity.

  7. Cosmopolitan political science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grande, Edgar

    2006-03-01

    Until recently, the term cosmopolitism could rarely be found in modern political science literature. It was only in the 1990s that the term was rediscovered by political scientists in the critical discourse on globalization. In this article, I will explore the full potential of cosmopolitism as an analytical concept for empirical political science. I will argue that the concept of cosmopolitism should not be restricted to the analysis of global politics. Indeed, cosmopolitism has much more to offer for political scientists. Properly understood, it enables--and necessitates--a re-invention of political science in the age of globalization, comparable to the behavioural revolution in political science in the 1950s. Such a paradigmatic shift should be based on a twofold transformation of existing disciplinary boundaries: A removal of the boundary between national (and comparative) and international politics on the one hand; and a re-definition of the boundaries between empirical and normative approaches on the other. As a result, cosmopolitism may serve as a new, critical theory of politics based on the integration of hitherto separated fields and sub-fields.

  8. Resting heart rate and risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes in asymptomatic aortic stenosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greve, Anders M; Bang, Casper N; Berg, Ronan M G

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: An elevated resting heart rate (RHR) may be an early sign of cardiac failure, but its prognostic value during watchful waiting in asymptomatic aortic stenosis (AS) is largely unknown. METHODS: RHR was determined by annual ECGs in the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS)...

  9. 77 FR 5416 - Financial Derivatives Transactions To Offset Interest Rate Risk; Investment and Deposit Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-03

    ... manage derivatives. First, an FCU would need to demonstrate relevant IRR exposure. One of the motivations... in ANPR I, the Board is considering whether to limit the types of derivatives instruments that some... considers it appropriate to limit the types of derivatives that an FCU may transact to interest rate...

  10. 76 FR 37030 - Financial Derivatives Transactions To Offset Interest Rate Risk; Investment and Deposit Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-24

    ..., with certain exceptions, are financial derivatives such as futures, options, interest rate swaps and... to evaluate any hedge transaction using derivatives must include the ability to capture all options... NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 703 Financial Derivatives Transactions To Offset...

  11. Assessing the influence of risk factors on rates and dynamics of peripheral vein phlebitis: an observational cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mestre Roca, Gabriel; Berbel Bertolo, Cristina; Tortajada Lopez, Purificación; Gallemi Samaranch, Gema; Aguilar Ramirez, Mari Carmen; Caylà Buqueras, Joan; Rodríguez-Baño, Jesús; Martinez, José Antonio

    2012-07-21

    To assess the influence of risk factors on the rates and kinetics of peripheral vein phlebitis (PVP) development and its theoretical influence in absolute PVP reduction after catheter replacement. All peripheral short intravenous catheters inserted during one month were included (1201 catheters and 967 patients). PVP risk factors were assessed by a Cox proportional hazard model. Cumulative probability, conditional failure of PVP and theoretical estimation of the benefit from replacement at different intervals were performed. Female gender, catheter insertion at the emergency or medical-surgical wards, forearm site, amoxicillin-clavulamate or aminoglycosides were independent predictors of PVP with hazard ratios (95 confidence interval) of 1.46 (1.09-2.15), 1.94 (1.01-3.73), 2.51 (1.29-4.88), 1.93 (1.20-3.01), 2.15 (1.45-3.20) and 2.10 (1.01-4.63), respectively. Maximum phlebitis incidence was reached sooner in patients with ≥2 risk factors (days 3-4) than in those with phlebitis/one catheter-day for devices with ≤1 risk factors to 0.26 for those with ≥3. The greatest benefit of routine catheter exchange was obtained by replacement every 60h. However, this benefit differed according to the number of risk factors: 24.8% reduction with ≥3, 13.1% with 2, and 9.2% with ≤1. PVP dynamics is highly influenced by identifiable risk factors which may be used to refine the strategy of catheter management. Routine replacement every 72h seems to be strictly necessary only in high-risk catheters. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  12. PERFORMANCE EVALUATION AND RISK AVERSION RATE FOR SEVERAL STOCK INDICES IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

    OpenAIRE

    Robiyanto Robiyanto

    2017-01-01

    There are numerous stock indices in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Several of them are LQ-45, MBX, DBX, JII, SRI-KEHATI, PEFINDO-25, BISNIS-27, IDX-30 and KOMPAS-100. Unfortunately there are limi­ted researches which have been done to measure those indices performance specifically. The same condition also occurs on risk aversion level usage in Indonesia Stock Exchange, only few numbers of researches use this me­a­surement in the portfolio valuation. Based on that, this research measured the perfor...

  13. Stroke subtypes, risk factors and mortality rate in northwest of Iran

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farhoudi, Mehdi; Mehrvar, Kaveh; Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun

    2017-01-01

    Background: Stroke is the second most common cause of death and first cause of disability in adults in the world. About 80% of all stroke deaths occur in developing countries. So far, the data on stroke epidemiology have been limited in Iran. Therefore, this study was focused on stroke demographic...... data, risk factors, types and mortality. Methods: A retrospective study was done in two university tertiary referral hospitals in Tabriz, northwest of Iran, from March 2008 to April 2013. Patients diagnosed with stroke were enrolled in the study. Demographic data, stroke subtypes, duration...

  14. Estimation of value at risk in currency exchange rate portfolio using asymmetric GJR-GARCH Copula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurrahmat, Mohamad Husein; Noviyanti, Lienda; Bachrudin, Achmad

    2017-03-01

    In this study, we discuss the problem in measuring the risk in a portfolio based on value at risk (VaR) using asymmetric GJR-GARCH Copula. The approach based on the consideration that the assumption of normality over time for the return can not be fulfilled, and there is non-linear correlation for dependent model structure among the variables that lead to the estimated VaR be inaccurate. Moreover, the leverage effect also causes the asymmetric effect of dynamic variance and shows the weakness of the GARCH models due to its symmetrical effect on conditional variance. Asymmetric GJR-GARCH models are used to filter the margins while the Copulas are used to link them together into a multivariate distribution. Then, we use copulas to construct flexible multivariate distributions with different marginal and dependence structure, which is led to portfolio joint distribution does not depend on the assumptions of normality and linear correlation. VaR obtained by the analysis with confidence level 95% is 0.005586. This VaR derived from the best Copula model, t-student Copula with marginal distribution of t distribution.

  15. Decreasing the infusion rate reduces the proarrhythmic risk of NS-7

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Detre, Elke; Thomsen, Morten Bækgaard; Beekman, Jet D

    2005-01-01

    1 The rate of infusion has been suggested to be important for drug-induced torsades de pointes (TdP) arrhythmias. We investigated the repolarisation-prolonging effects and proarrhythmic properties of NS-7, a neuroprotective drug in development, using two different infusion rates. 2 A fast (5 min...... intravenously (i.v.)) escalating dosing regimen (0.3 and 3.0 mg kg(-1), n=4) of NS-7 was investigated in anaesthetised control dogs in sinus rhythm (SR). This was compared to a slow infusion (60 min i.v.) of one dose (3.0 mg kg(-1), n=4) NS-7. The similar dosing regimens were investigated in anaesthetised dogs...... with chronic, complete AV block (CAVB), an animal model of TdP (n=6). 3 No electrophysiological effects were seen after 0.3 mg kg(-1) NS-7. Fast infusion of 3.0 mg kg(-1) caused prolongation of repolarisation, for example, heart rate corrected QT interval (QT(c)): in SR: 6+/-1%; in CAVB: 10+/-7%, which...

  16. Usage of marketing in politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marić Ivana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Multi-party political system led to competition between political parties which caused the need for marketing in politics that improves political reputation. Politics, based on rich experience of political practice, used existing, developed methods and techniques of commercial marketing. Political marketing openly admits that politics and politicians are simply goods that are being sold on a political market. Political marketing is a whole way of operation by political parties which ask these questions: how do the voters choose; what affects their preference and how that preference can be influenced. Usage of political marketing in Bosnia and Herzegovina is still not on a satisfactory level but the knowledge about the importance of political marketing is increasing.

  17. Sensitivity analysis of the leaching rate parameter in assessing the environmental risk of phosphogypsum application in sanitary landfills

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marchesi, Marcos Vinicius A.; Hama, Naruhiko; Jacomino, Vanusa M.F.; Ladeira, Ana Claudia Q.; Cota, Stela D.S., E-mail: mvmarchesi@hotmail.com, E-mail: sdsc@cdtn.br, E-mail: vmfj@cdtn.br, E-mail: ana.ladeira@cdtn.br, E-mail: naruhikohama@hotmail.com [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    The attack with sulfuric acid to phosphate rock produces both phosphoric acid, basic raw material in the manufacture of fertilizers, as a by-product called phosphogypsum. Phosphogypsum is composed mostly of calcium sulfate dihydrated, but may have high levels of impurities from the phosphate rock matrix as a series of natural radionuclides, and heavy metals (e.g. Cd, Zn) and metalloids (e.g. , As and Se). Although it is used for agricultural purposes and more recently in construction, in Brazil the generation rate estimated at six million tons per year is much higher than the amount spent on existing alternatives, and therefore mostly deposited in piles in the same place production, causing thereby the risk of contamination of soil and water resources of the region and providing risk to human health. Taken into account the need to find alternative arrangements for phosphogypsum and reduce the impact generated by its contaminants, this study aims to analyze the sensitivity of the leaching rate parameter in the environmental risk evaluation of the application of phosphogypsum in landfills through mathematical modeling, where it is evaluated the concentration of heavy metals and radionuclides in the layer of the soil under the clay layer of the landfill.

  18. Risk of radiation-induced cancer at low doses and low dose rates for radiation protection purposes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The aim of this report is to provide an updated, comprehensive review of the data available for assessing the risk of radiation-induced cancer for radiation protection purposes. Particular emphasis is placed on assessing risks at low doses and low dose rates. The review brings together the results of epidemiological investigations and fundamental studies on the molecular and cellular mechanisms involved in radiation damage. Additionally, this information is supplemented by studies with experimental animals which provide further guidance on the form of the dose-response relationship for cancer induction, as well as on the effect of dose rate on the tumour yield. The emphasis of the report is on cancer induction resulting from exposure to radiations with a low linear energy transfer (LET). The work was performed under contract for the Institut de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire, Fontenay-aux-Roses, Paris, France, whose agreement to publish is gratefully ackowledged. It extends the advice on radiation risks given in Documents of the NRPB, 4 No. 4 (1993). (Author)

  19. Sensitivity analysis of the leaching rate parameter in assessing the environmental risk of phosphogypsum application in sanitary landfills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marchesi, Marcos Vinicius A.; Hama, Naruhiko; Jacomino, Vanusa M.F.; Ladeira, Ana Claudia Q.; Cota, Stela D.S.

    2013-01-01

    The attack with sulfuric acid to phosphate rock produces both phosphoric acid, basic raw material in the manufacture of fertilizers, as a by-product called phosphogypsum. Phosphogypsum is composed mostly of calcium sulfate dihydrated, but may have high levels of impurities from the phosphate rock matrix as a series of natural radionuclides, and heavy metals (e.g. Cd, Zn) and metalloids (e.g. , As and Se). Although it is used for agricultural purposes and more recently in construction, in Brazil the generation rate estimated at six million tons per year is much higher than the amount spent on existing alternatives, and therefore mostly deposited in piles in the same place production, causing thereby the risk of contamination of soil and water resources of the region and providing risk to human health. Taken into account the need to find alternative arrangements for phosphogypsum and reduce the impact generated by its contaminants, this study aims to analyze the sensitivity of the leaching rate parameter in the environmental risk evaluation of the application of phosphogypsum in landfills through mathematical modeling, where it is evaluated the concentration of heavy metals and radionuclides in the layer of the soil under the clay layer of the landfill

  20. Centre for Political and

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    and definitions will be published and the data translated into the official ... The Centre provides a terminological and subject-related service to lecturers and ... postgraduate students in international politics, political studies and .... obtain financial contributions (cf. .... making of authoritative and enforceable rules (laws) for.