WorldWideScience

Sample records for political risk ratings

  1. The place of Political Risk Insurance in the political risk management strategy of multinational corporations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Violeta Iftinchi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Confronted with a variety of political risks that affect their international activities, multinational corporations (MNCs can use Political Risk Insurance (PRI as a method to mitigate some of those risks. The aim of this article is to present the main characteristics of the PRI policies and participants, to highlight its benefits and to put forward three limitations that prevent MNCs in using PRI in their political risk management strategy (fluctuating capacity on the market, high premium rates and small compensation value. The recent trend in incorporating corporate social responsibility requirements as a pre-condition for providing PRI can contribute to lowering PRI premium rates.

  2. Risk, responsibility and political action

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halskov Jensen, Elisabeth

    2004-01-01

    ABSTRACT. This paper presents an argumentative case study of the discursive representation of risk, responsibility and political action in the Spanish media. The study uses a critical discourse analytical approach combined with theories on risk, agency and political communication in the media....... It is argued that an application of the Toulmin model is useful for eliciting systematic overall repre-sentations of responsibility and agency in environmental crises such as the mad cow crisis as well as for revealing relationships between social domains such as moral, politics, economics and science...... in discourse. Discourse analysis shows that in the Spanish newspaper sample the focus was on the construal of high risk and on the construal of the national Spanish politicians, the EU and the Brit-ish nation as scapegoats. No responsibility was associated with consumers or other individual players. Political...

  3. Risk, responsibility and political action

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halskov Jensen, Elisabeth

    2004-01-01

    . It is argued that an application of the Toulmin model is useful for eliciting systematic overall repre-sentations of responsibility and agency in environmental crises such as the mad cow crisis as well as for revealing relationships between social domains such as moral, politics, economics and science......ABSTRACT. This paper presents an argumentative case study of the discursive representation of risk, responsibility and political action in the Spanish media. The study uses a critical discourse analytical approach combined with theories on risk, agency and political communication in the media...... action was transformed into a moral respon-sibility on the part of the national and European politicians, constrained by economic and technical-scientific reality and represented as taking place only in the public sphere. KEY WORDS: CDA, World Risk Society, argumentation, media discourse, argumentation...

  4. Democracy, political risks and stock market performance

    OpenAIRE

    Lehkonen, Heikki; Heimonen, Kari

    2015-01-01

    This study examines the impacts of democracy and political risk on stock market. Using annualized panel data for 49 emerging markets for 2000–2012 we find evidence that democracy and political risk do have impact on stock market returns and the relationship between democracy and political risk is parabolic, i.e., there is a threshold level of democracy after which political risk begins to decline. Also our results suggest that decreases in political risk lead to higher returns.

  5. Risk, science, and politics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrison, K.; Hoberg, G. [British Columbia Univ., Vancouver, BC (Canada)

    1994-12-31

    Case studies of seven controversial substances suspected of causing cancer in humans were analysed: the pesticides Alar and Alachor, urea-formaldehyde foam insulation, radon gas, dioxin, saccharin, and asbestos. Government regulation of toxic substances in Canada and the U.S. were examined. The strengths and weaknesses of each country`s approach were weighted according to five criteria: stringency and timeliness of the regulatory decision, balancing of risks and benefits by decision makers, opportunities for public participation, and the interpretation of science in regulatory decision making. Dramatically different approaches to regulatory science in the two countries were highlighted. The Canadian approach is exemplified by closed decision making, case-by-case review relying heavily on expert judgement, and limited public debate. In contrast, the American approach is characterized by publication of lengthy rationales for regulatory decisions, reliance on standardized procedures for risk assessment, and controversy surrounding the interpretation of scientific evidence. The general conclusion was that both the Canadian and U.S.approaches offer uncertain risks and benefits; the key question is how the risks compare with the benefits, and which consequences are valued the most. Extensive bibliographic notes are provided for each chapter.

  6. The Political Economy of Intergenerational Risk Sharing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hollanders, D.A.

    2010-01-01

    This paper analyses the political constraints of intergenerational risk sharing. The rst result is that the political process generally does not lead to ex ante optimal insurance. The second result is that in a second best political setting PAYG still contributes to intergenerational risk sharing.

  7. The Political Economy of Regulatory Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Strausz, Roland

    2009-01-01

    I investigate the argument that, in a two–party system with different regulatory objectives, political uncertainty generates regulatory risk. I show that this risk has a fluctuation effect that hurts both parties and an output–expansion effect that benefits one party. Consequently, at least one party dislikes regulatory risk. Moreover, both political parties gain from eliminating regulatory risk when political divergence is small or the winning probability of the regulatory–risk–averse party ...

  8. Political uncertainty and firm risk in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danglun Luo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The political uncertainty surrounded by the turnover of government officials has a major impact on local economies and local firms. This paper investigates the relationship between the turnover of prefecture-city officials and the inherent risk faced by local firms in China. Using data from 1999 to 2012, we find that prefecture-city official turnovers significantly increased firm risk. Our results show that the political risk was mitigated when new prefecture-city officials were well connected with their provincial leaders. In addition, the impact of political uncertainty was more pronounced for regulated firms and firms residing in provinces with low market openness.

  9. The political economy of exchange rate in Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Terra, Maria Cristina T.

    2007-01-01

    This paper reviews part of the political economy literature on exchange rate policy relevant to understanding the political motivations behind the Brazilian exchange rate policy. We shall first examine the distributive role of the exchange rate, and the way it unfolds in terms of the desired political goals. We will follow by analyzing exchange policy as indicative of government effciency prior to elections. Finally, we discuss fiscal policy from the point of view of politic...

  10. Gender, risk assessment, and political ambition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet-Cushman, Jennie

    2016-01-01

    In the United States, women have long held the right to vote and can participate fully in the political process, and yet they are underrepresented at all levels of elected office. Worldwide, men's dominance in the realm of politics has also been the norm. To date, scholars have focused on supply-side and demand-side explanations of women's underrepresentation but differences in how men and women assess electoral risk (the risk involved in seeking political office) are not fully explained. To fill this gap, I explore how evolutionary theory offers insights into gendered differences in political ambition and the evaluation of electoral risk. Using the framework of life-history theory, I hypothesize that both cognitive and environmental factors in human evolution, particularly as they relate to sexual selection and social roles, have shaped the psychology of ambition in gendered ways affecting contemporary politics. Cognitive risk-assessment mechanisms evolving in the hominid line came to be expressed differently in females and males, in women and men. These gendered expressions plausibly reflect differentiable environmental pressures in the past and may help explain behaviors in and barriers to women's electoral political activity in the present. If so, then the success of efforts to increase such activity - or, regressively, to suppress it - may be better understood.

  11. The politics of urban climate risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2018-01-01

    makes valuable contributions, this article suggests that all of them remain under-theorized from the point of view of the specific dynamics of local–global interdependencies in urban climate risk politics. In response, the article draws on Beck in outlining the contours of new urban–cosmopolitan risk...... to the study of urban climate politics, by way of asking what contribution Ulrich Beck’s theory of world risk society – and principles of methodological cosmopolitanism – make to such epochal conversations? Three main analytical frameworks stand out: low-carbon transition literature highlight generic processes...... of socio-technical ‘greening’ of urban infrastructures; urban policy mobility work documents growing intercity networks around climate and sustainability; and actor–network theory-informed takes on urban controversies engage the localized politics of specific city-based ‘riskscapes’. While each framework...

  12. Political pressures and exchange rate stability in emerging market economies

    OpenAIRE

    Ester Faia; Massimo Giuliodori; Michele Ruta

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a political economy model of exchange rate policy. The theory is based on a common agency approach with rational expectations. Financial and exporter lobbies exert political pressures to influence the government’s choice of exchange rate policy, before shocks to the economy are realized. The model shows that political pressures affect exchange rate policy and create an over-commitment to exchange rate stability. This helps to rationalize the empirical evidence on fear of l...

  13. Politically Induced Regulatory Risk and Independent Regulatory Agencies

    OpenAIRE

    Strausz, Roland

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty in election outcomes generates politically induced regulatory risk. Political parties' risk attitudes towards such risk depend on a fluctuation effect that hurts both parties and an output--expansion effect that benefits at least one party. Notwithstanding the parties' risk attitudes, political parties have incentives to negotiate away all regulatory risk by pre-electoral bargaining. Efficient pre-electoral bargaining outcomes fully eliminate politically induced regulatory risk. P...

  14. Discount rate for climatic damage requires a political choice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davidson, M.D.

    2004-01-01

    In cost benefit analysis for climate policy the choice of an interest rate is crucial. The political nature of the choice requires a political view on this matter. There are valid arguments to decrease the usual discount rate from 4% to 0.8% [nl

  15. Socio-political implications of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hipel, K.W.; Fraser, N.W.

    1982-01-01

    A conflict analysis technique is presented which allows risk to be considered when ascertaining the politically and socially feasible solutions to a given large scale engineering project. In particular, the improved metagame analysis algorithm can be employed to model a given conflict or game which may be concerned with risk and to predict the possible compromise solutions. Risk can be entertained in the analysis since it may affect the preference structure of a specific participant for the possible feasible outcomes in the dispute. To demonstrate how the methodology works in practice, it is applied to the Garrison Diversion Unit conflict which is a serious environmental dispute involving American and Canadian interests

  16. The Determinants of Country Risk Ratings

    OpenAIRE

    Jean-Claude Cosset; Jean Roy

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to replicate Euromoney's and Institutional Investor's country risk ratings on the basis of economic and political variables. The evidence reveals that country risk ratings respond to some of the variables suggested by the theory. In particular, both the level of per capita income and propensity to invest affect positively the rating of a country. In addition, high-ranking countries are less indebted than low-ranking countries. It also appears that the ability of t...

  17. Insure Against Commercial and Political Risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fergusson, Fergus

    2003-01-01

    The oil and gas sector is enormously diverse, ranging from the giant exploration, production and supply companies to the manufacturers, suppliers and service providers that support an industry of crucial importance to the global community. For understandable reasons, risk management in the oil and gas sector has tended to concentrate on health and safety and environmental issues. Consideration must be made for the risks of engaging in domestic and international trade. The concept of risk and the consequential discipline of risk management underpin and support many of the fundamental activities that maintain successful trade flows. Risk management revolves around the organised procedures of mitigating the foreseen and unforeseen consequences of danger, injury and loss that can have adverse and potentially catastrophic effects on the environment, human lives, economies, political stability and business performance

  18. Political regimes, political ideology, and self-rated health in Europe: a multilevel analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huijts, Tim; Perkins, Jessica M; Subramanian, S V

    2010-07-22

    Studies on political ideology and health have found associations between individual ideology and health as well as between ecological measures of political ideology and health. Individual ideology and aggregate measures such as political regimes, however, were never examined simultaneously. Using adjusted logistic multilevel models to analyze data on individuals from 29 European countries and Israel, we found that individual ideology and political regime are independently associated with self-rated health. Individuals with rightwing ideologies report better health than leftwing individuals. Respondents from Eastern Europe and former Soviet republics report poorer health than individuals from social democratic, liberal, Christian conservative, and former Mediterranean dictatorship countries. In contrast to individual ideology and political regimes, country level aggregations of individual ideology are not related to reporting poor health. This study shows that although both individual political ideology and contextual political regime are independently associated with individuals' self-rated health, individual political ideology appears to be more strongly associated with self-rated health than political regime.

  19. Political Regimes, Political Ideology, and Self-Rated Health in Europe: A Multilevel Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huijts, Tim; Perkins, Jessica M.; Subramanian, S. V.

    2010-01-01

    Background Studies on political ideology and health have found associations between individual ideology and health as well as between ecological measures of political ideology and health. Individual ideology and aggregate measures such as political regimes, however, were never examined simultaneously. Methodology/Principal Findings Using adjusted logistic multilevel models to analyze data on individuals from 29 European countries and Israel, we found that individual ideology and political regime are independently associated with self-rated health. Individuals with rightwing ideologies report better health than leftwing individuals. Respondents from Eastern Europe and former Soviet republics report poorer health than individuals from social democratic, liberal, Christian conservative, and former Mediterranean dictatorship countries. In contrast to individual ideology and political regimes, country level aggregations of individual ideology are not related to reporting poor health. Conclusions/Significance This study shows that although both individual political ideology and contextual political regime are independently associated with individuals' self-rated health, individual political ideology appears to be more strongly associated with self-rated health than political regime. PMID:20661433

  20. Political risk in fair market value estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gruy, H.J.; Hartsock, J.H.

    1996-01-01

    Political risk arises from unstable governments, commercial establishments and infrastructure as well as labor unrest. All these factors vary from country to country and from time to time. Banks and insurance companies quantify these risks, but they are reluctant to divulge their opinions for fear of alienating possible customers that have been assigned a high risk. An investment in a fixed property such as an oil and gas lease, concession or other mineral interest is subject to political risk. No one will deny that money to be received several years in the future has a greater value today in a country with a stable government, stable tax regime, a sound economy and reliable labor force than in a Third World country where a revolution is brewing. Even in stable countries, the risk of tax law changes, exorbitant environmental production regulations and cleanup costs may vary. How do these factors affect fair market value and how are these calculations made? An important consideration discussed in this paper is the treatment of capital investments

  1. THE FINANCIAL TOOLS FOR COVER POLITICAL RISKS IN PROJECT FINANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Naumenkova

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the risk-mitigation in public-private partnership. Today Ukraine is ranked as "CRT-5 country" and has high levels of economic and political risk. Political risk grows steadily because of financial and political instability in Ukraine. We conclude that investors continue to rank political risk as a key obstacle to long-term investing. The tools for cover many types of political risks such as war, terrorism, civil disturbance, breach of contract, export or operating license cancellation, currency inconvertibility and transfer restriction, change of laws and regulations etc. are described by authors. We focus on the advantages of World Bank Group Guarantee products. The guarantee instruments of the three WBG institutions for cover political risks under different circumstances are the most suitable for public-private partnership in Ukraine. In this article the political risk-mitigation with IBRD Partial Risk Guarantee put forward by authors for PPP projects in Ukraine.

  2. Food, Risk and Politics: Scare, scandal and crisis - insights into the risk politics of food safety

    OpenAIRE

    Randall, Ed J.

    2009-01-01

    This book is about the risk politics of food safety. Food-related risks regularly grab the headlines in ways that threaten reasoned debate and obstruct sensible policy making. The author explains why this is the case. He goes on to make the case for a properly informed and fully open public debate about food safety issues. He argues that this is the true antidote to the politics of scare, scandal and crisis.\\ud \\ud The book skilfully weaves together the many different threads of food safety a...

  3. Countering Political Risk in Colonial India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lubinski, Christina; Giacomin, Valeria; Schnitzer, Klara

    of their employees in British camps during both WWI and WWII. We find that internment impacted business relationships in India well beyond its endpoint and that the WWI internment shaped the subsequent perception of and strategic response to the WWII experience. We show that internment aggravated existing staffing...... challenges, impacted the perception of racial lines of distinctions and re-casted the category “European business.” While internment was perceived and managed as a political risk, the case also shows that it created unexpected networking opportunities, generating a tight community of German businesspeople...

  4. Element of risk: The politics of radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cole, L.A.

    1994-01-01

    The recent history of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) approach to managing the risk of indoor radon offers a rich base from which to consider US practice in risk assessment, management, and communication. The biological evidence of risks from high-level exposure to radon is in many ways stronger--and the gap to be spanned by extrapolation from laboratory animal studies to ambient exposures narrower--than for many of the toxic and hazardous air pollutants that have been the focus of EPA regulatory attention. The epidemiological evidence about radon is complicated by a number of confounding variables, but this is often the state of epidemiological evidence. Radon has also been the focus of a considerable amount of research on risk communication. To complete the promising ingredients, disagreements between federal regulators at EPA and managers of federal nuclear programs run by the Department of Energy (DOE) concerning radon from uranium mill tailings, for example, and other issues in radiation health physics offer a rich array of opportunities to explore issues in federal bureaucratic politics. This book provides a straightforward report of much of the development of US policy on indoor radon over the past decade. As such, it gives readers unfamiliar with the evolution of radon regulation an opportunity to come quickly up to speed on many historical details

  5. Political Risk and Foreign Direct Investments in Kosovo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MSc. Neshat Podvorica

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to present the importance of political risk and its impact on attracting investments, also to analyse policies made by the Kosovo institutions to reduce political risk and increase the FDIs. Attracting of the FDIs is complex because they depend on many factors, and one of the methods that measure political risk is the model used by the PRS Group that includes the flow of the economy through 12 components. Measuring political risk plays an important role in transitional countries, because these are countries that have problems in various fields and also the trust on by the investors is low. As a finding of this study is that Kosovo is estimated to have moderate political risk, and is close to joining the group of countries with low political risk. Challenges faced by Kosovo in reducing political risk are concentrated in several components, which are: socioeconomic, corruption and rule of law components. Kosovo has taken significant steps in improving the conditions for investment, government stability and positioning of the country facing internal and external conflicts.

  6. Privatization, political risk and stock market development in emerging economies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.C.; van Oijen, P.H.

    1999-01-01

    This paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test that gradually resolves uncertainty over

  7. Political regimes, political ideology, and self-rated health in Europe : a multilevel analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijts, T.; Perkins, J.M; Subramanian, S.V.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Studies on political ideology and health have found associations between individual ideology and health as well as between ecological measures of political ideology and health. Individual ideology and aggregate measures such as political regimes, however, were never examined

  8. Is political risk still an issue for Turkish stock market?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samet Günay

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we analyze the effects of internal political risk on the Turkish stock market in the period of 2001–2014. Empirical analyses are conducted through various methods to obtain breaks and regimes in the return volatilities of the BIST100 index. According to the results, while the number of breaks has increased in recent years, the risk level of recent periods is significantly lower than the early regimes, and the risk level trend for all regimes show a negative slope. In conclusion, the Turkish stock market responds to political events, but according to our results, not as significantly as in the past.

  9. Management of interest rate risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šabović Šerif

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Interest rate risk is one of the biggest and most dangerous risks that a bank is exposed to. When a change of interest rates occurs, the incomes of a bank based on credits and securities endure significant changes. Banks resources also endure some changes. The change of interest rates changes the value of the assets and liabilities of the bank and it's net and investment worth . The change of interest rates also affects bank's balance sheet, income sheet statement and bank's share capital.

  10. EFFECT OF POLITICAL RISK SHOCKS ON TOURISM REVENUE IN SOUTH AFRICA: TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

    OpenAIRE

    Muzindutsi, Paul-Francois; Manaliyo, Jean Claude

    2016-01-01

    Although political risk has an impact on all types of businesses, political risk affects tourism business performance in terms of tourist arrivals and tourism revenue because tourists are very sensitive to political risk in host countries. This study analysed the effect of political risk on revenue from the tourism industry in South Africa. The sample period of 108 months from January 2007 to December 2015 was used based on the availability of data. The political risk were measured by the cou...

  11. Radiation risks and benefits: politics and morality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maxey, M.N.

    1983-01-01

    The bioethical framework from which moral reasoning concerning nuclear technology has been derived is both seriously flawed and conceptually inadequate. The reasons are examined and are arranged in response to three questions. First, what is the status of alleged scientific evidence from which moral conclusions about the unacceptability of man-made radiation exposures are derived. Secondly, what criticisms of risk assessment reasoning are pertinent to ethical reflection. Finally, what revisions in an ethical framework are necessary if risk estimates of low-dose radiation exposure are to be conducted properly

  12. Dutch Courage : The Politics of Acceptable Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jan van der Meulen; prof. dr. J.M.L.M. Soeters

    2005-01-01

    In this article we analyze the ways in which the risks of military missions and the prospects for casualties have made an impact on the deployment of soldiers by the Netherlands. The question is whether the self-image of being a military nation acts as a hindrance to participation when the going

  13. Consensus and conflict resolution: The politics of assessing risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelkin, D.; Pollak, M.

    1980-01-01

    Not the structure of experiments can be generalized but the conditions that will allow dissenting groups to communicate effectively with administrative agencies. This includes a careful definition of the problem that gives due weight to political concerns, the appropriate involvement of affected interests, an unbiased management of the procedures, a fair distribution of expertise, and a real margin of choice. One of the more important outcomes of recent disputes is an awareness that technologies embody not only risks but also controversial political and social choices. (DG)

  14. Safety Politics and Risk Perceptions in Malaysian Industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wangel, Arne

    by the state from Burawoy, Beronius, and Adesina about production politics and social relations in the labour process provides an integrated perspective on individual risk perceptions, safety practices in enterprises, and government regulation. The empirical data were collected during the period 1989......Abstract The book deals with the analysis of work hazards and safety in industrial enterprises in Peninsular Malaysia, Southeast Asia. It traces the development of this theme of conflict within the context constituted by state, labour market and labour-management relations in Malaysia. The book...... and the activities, which are exercised by referring to such rationality, have to be carefully examined. 'Safety Politics and Risk Perceptions in Malaysian Industry' identifies analytical perspectives, which in detail are able to trace conflicts about the working environment in the industries of developing countries...

  15. The Political Risk of Oil and Gas Mega Projects: A Descriptive Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Veflen, Martin Elton

    2011-01-01

    Two elements can be seen to evolve progressively with globalization: political risk and mega projects. Although a fair amount of research has been carried out in regards to political risk and mega projects as separate units of investigation, few studies have attempted to combine the two. This thesis fills a void in the existing literature by providing a specialized approach to political risk, focusing on political risk of oil and gas mega projects in particular. Drawing on a comprehensive dat...

  16. The Role of the Expert’s Ratings in Political Activity in Modern Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Марина Васильевна Носкова

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is the short review of the ratings, which are carried out by expert structures and their influence both on image of the countries, and on image of political leaders (leaders of political parties and heads of regions of the Russian Federation. The attention is paid to influence from any expert consultants regarding preparation and maintenance of election campaigns, connection of expert ratings with adoption of political decisions by public authorities is shown.

  17. 47 CFR 76.1611 - Political cable rates and classes of time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Political cable rates and classes of time. 76.1611 Section 76.1611 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) BROADCAST RADIO SERVICES MULTICHANNEL VIDEO AND CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE Notices § 76.1611 Political cable rates and...

  18. Politeness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henri Bergson

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This is the English translation of a speech Bergson made at Lycée Henri-IV on July 30, 1892. This is an interesting text because it anticipates Bergson’s last book, his The Two Sources of Morality and Religion. Like the distinction in The Two Sources between the open and the closed, “Politeness” defines its subject matter in two ways. There is what Bergson calls “manners” and there is true politeness. For Bergson, both kinds of politeness concern equality. Manners or material politeness amount to the ritualized greetings and formalities by means of which we usually define politeness. Unfortunately and like The Two Sources, Bergson attributes this formalized relation to other human beings with primitive and “inferior races.” Nevertheless, Bergson sees in these formalities an attempt, in the name of equality, to ignore other people’s talents and merits so that one can dominate morally superior people. In contrast, true politeness or “spiritual politeness” consists in “intellectual flexibility.” When one meets a person of superior morality, one is flexible in one’s relation to him or her; one abandons the formalities in order to really live her life and think her thoughts. Here we find equality too: “what defines this very polite person is to prefer each of his friends over the others, and to succeed in this way in loving them equally.” After making a comparison to dance, Bergson defines spiritual politeness as “a grace of the mind.” Since both kinds of politeness concern equality, Bergson associates both with justice. However, beyond these two kinds of politeness and justice there is “politeness of the heart,” which concerns charity. In order to indicate politeness of the heart, Bergson describes the kind of person, a sensitive person, who anxiously awaits a word of praise in order to feel good about herself but who also, when she hears a word of reproach, is thrown into sadness. Although Bergson calls the

  19. The Effect of Political and Economic Factors on Corporate Tax Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Hansson, Åsa; Porter, Susan; Perry Williams, Susan

    2012-01-01

    Economists and political scientists have long been interested in factors that affect the statutory tax rate on businesses set by federal governments. In this study, we examine the impact of political and economic factors on several measures of tax rates and tax incentives offered across 19 developed countries for the years 1979 through 2005. Our results indicate that while economic conditions such as openness, strategic interaction, budget constraints, economic downturns and an aging populati...

  20. Variance risk premia in CO2 markets: A political perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reckling, Dennis

    2016-01-01

    The European Commission discusses the change of free allocation plans to guarantee a stable market equilibrium. Selling over-allocated contracts effectively depreciates prices and negates the effect intended by the regulator to establish a stable price mechanism for CO 2 assets. Our paper investigates mispricing and allocation issues by quantitatively analyzing variance risk premia of CO 2 markets over the course of changing regimes (Phase I-III) for three different assets (European Union Allowances, Certified Emissions Reductions and European Reduction Units). The research paper gives recommendations to regulatory bodies in order to most effectively cap the overall carbon dioxide emissions. The analysis of an enriched dataset, comprising not only of additional CO 2 assets, but also containing data from the European Energy Exchange, shows that variance risk premia are equal to a sample average of 0.69 for European Union Allowances (EUA), 0.17 for Certified Emissions Reductions (CER) and 0.81 for European Reduction Units (ERU). We identify the existence of a common risk factor across different assets that justifies the presence of risk premia. Various policy implications with regards to gaining investors’ confidence in the market are being reviewed. Consequently, we recommend the implementation of a price collar approach to support stable prices for emission allowances. - Highlights: •Enriched dataset covering all three political phases of the CO 2 markets. •Clear policy implications for regulators to most effectively cap the overall CO 2 emissions pool. •Applying a cross-asset benchmark index for variance beta estimation. •CER contracts have been analyzed with respect to variance risk premia for the first time. •Increased forecasting accuracy for CO 2 asset returns by using variance risk premia.

  1. Book Review: Louise Amoore, The Politics of Possibility: Risk and Security Beyond Probability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grasten, Maj

    2016-01-01

    “The Politics of Possibility: Risk and Security beyond Probability” by Louise Amoore. Durham, NC; London: Duke University Press, 2013. 220 pp., £15.99, ISBN 9780822355601......“The Politics of Possibility: Risk and Security beyond Probability” by Louise Amoore. Durham, NC; London: Duke University Press, 2013. 220 pp., £15.99, ISBN 9780822355601...

  2. Women, Demography, and Politics: How Lower Fertility Rates Lead to Democracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Udi

    2018-03-14

    Where connections between demography and politics are examined in the literature, it is largely in the context of the effects of male aspects of demography on phenomena such as political violence. This project aims to place the study of demographic variables' influence on politics, particularly on democracy, squarely within the scope of political and social sciences, and to focus on the effects of woman-related demographics-namely, fertility rate. I test the hypothesis that demographic variables-female-related predictors, in particular-have an independent effect on political structure. Comparing countries over time, this study finds a growth in democracy when fertility rates decline. In the theoretical framework developed, it is family structure as well as the economic and political status of women that account for this change at the macro and micro levels. Findings based on data for more than 140 countries over three decades are robust when controlling not only for alternative effects but also for reverse causality and data limitations.

  3. "Mind the Gap": Researchers Ignore Politics at Their Own Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feder, Judith

    2016-02-01

    No matter how distasteful researchers find policy politics, effective policy requires that they engage. Drawing on her career bridging the research/politics gap in health care policy, the author makes a case for why and how researchers can do just that. Copyright © 2016 by Duke University Press.

  4. The necessity for comparative risk analyses as seen from the political point of view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steger, U.

    1981-01-01

    The author describes the current insufficient utilization of risk analyses in the political decision process and investigates if other technologies encounter the same difficulties of acceptance as in the nuclear energy field. This being likely he is trying to find out which contribution comparative risk analyses could make to the process of democratic will-formation so that new technologies are accepted. Firstly the author establishes theses criticizing the recent scientific efforts made in the field of risk analyses and their usability for the political decision process. He then defines the criteria risk analyses have to meet in order to serve as scientific elements for consultative political discussions. (orig./HP) [de

  5. WHOLE FARM RISK-RATING MICROCOMPUTER MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Anderson, Kim B.; Ikerd, John E.

    1985-01-01

    The Risk-Rating Model is designed to give extension specialists, teachers, and producers a method to analyze production, marketing, and financial risks. These risks may be analyzed either individually or simultaneously. The risk associated with each enterprise, for all combinations of enterprises, and for any combination of marketing strategies is estimated. Optimistic, expected, and pessimistic returns above variable cost and/or total cost are presented in the results. The probability that t...

  6. International financial linkages of Latin American banks: the effects of political risk and deposit dollarisation

    OpenAIRE

    Ramon-Ballester, Francisco; Wezel, Torsten

    2007-01-01

    This paper empirically investigates the extent to which the financial linkages of Latin American banks with the exterior are influenced by political risk and deposit dollarisation. We find that the sum of banks’ foreign assets and liabilities is a function of risk-return considerations and excess domestic credit demand. An increase in political risk is shown to be associated with a build-up of foreign positions by the banking sector, but this adverse effect on the banking system is mitigated ...

  7. Reducing political risk in EU pooling and sharing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijpers, D.; Faleg (ed), G.

    2014-01-01

    Can states share political accountability by allowing common defence capability development, training of troops, or procurement of military equipment? Is the defence industry ready for Pooling and Sharing (PS)?

  8. Political risk and foreign direct investment in Nigeria: New empirical evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Musa Hatim Koko

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The positive effect of globalization has continued to impact FDI inflow to developing countries during the last decade except for the rising influence of political risk in host locations. Mixed outcomes have trailed the findings related to the studies on FDI and political risk relationship and in particular on African countries like Nigeria. This paper investigated the effect of political risk on FDI inflow to Nigeria using secondary data from 2000 to 2014 using simple linear regression. The study combined from select variables, the institutional factors with location determinants peculiar to Nigeria’s risk environment. It is found that political risk holds a positive and significant association with FDI to Nigeria but not close enough to inhibit the inflow of foreign investment to the country. However, the findings provide a strong basis for policy shift in relation to security, country promotion and rebranding as well strengthening of institutions.

  9. Rising Interest Rate Risk at US Banks

    OpenAIRE

    Bednar, William; Elamin, Mahmoud

    2014-01-01

    Average interest rate risk in the banking system has been increasing since the end of the financial crisis and is almost back to its pre-recession level. But the increase has not occurred uniformly at large and small banks. At big banks, risk, while increasing, hasn’t yet reached its pre-recession high. It’s in small banks where we see a steep rise in interest rate risk. The big banks’ exposure is being driven mainly by their liabilities. At small banks, it is coming from both their assets an...

  10. Scientific risk communication about controversial issues influences public perceptions of scientists' political orientations and credibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    Many scientists communicate with the public about risks associated with scientific issues, but such communication may have unintended consequences for how the public views the political orientations and the credibility of the communicating scientist. We explore this possibility using an experiment with a nationally representative sample of Americans in the fall of 2015. We find that risk communication on controversial scientific issues sometimes influences perceptions of the political orientations and credibility of the communicating scientist when the scientist addresses the risks of issues associated with conservative or liberal groups. This relationship is moderated by participant political ideology, with liberals adjusting their perceptions of the scientists' political beliefs more substantially when the scientist addressed the risks of marijuana use when compared with other issues. Conservatives' political perceptions were less impacted by the issue context of the scientific risk communication but indirectly influenced credibility perceptions. Our results support a contextual model of audience interpretation of scientific risk communication. Scientists should be cognizant that audience members may make inferences about the communicating scientist's political orientations and credibility when they engage in risk communication efforts about controversial issues. PMID:29515820

  11. Scientific risk communication about controversial issues influences public perceptions of scientists' political orientations and credibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vraga, Emily; Myers, Teresa; Kotcher, John; Beall, Lindsey; Maibach, Ed

    2018-02-01

    Many scientists communicate with the public about risks associated with scientific issues, but such communication may have unintended consequences for how the public views the political orientations and the credibility of the communicating scientist. We explore this possibility using an experiment with a nationally representative sample of Americans in the fall of 2015. We find that risk communication on controversial scientific issues sometimes influences perceptions of the political orientations and credibility of the communicating scientist when the scientist addresses the risks of issues associated with conservative or liberal groups. This relationship is moderated by participant political ideology, with liberals adjusting their perceptions of the scientists' political beliefs more substantially when the scientist addressed the risks of marijuana use when compared with other issues. Conservatives' political perceptions were less impacted by the issue context of the scientific risk communication but indirectly influenced credibility perceptions. Our results support a contextual model of audience interpretation of scientific risk communication. Scientists should be cognizant that audience members may make inferences about the communicating scientist's political orientations and credibility when they engage in risk communication efforts about controversial issues.

  12. ANALYSIS OF THE POLITICAL COMPONENT OF THE COUNTRY RISK FOR ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florentina Cristina BALDAN

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims at analysing the political component of the country risk for Romania. In the first part of the research I presented a few theoretical aspects of the country risk, and I subsequently presented the situation of the political component of the country risk for Romania in the worldwide and European context according to the Marsh Political Risk Map Report for the 2013-2015 period. In relation n to the macroeconomic analysis of the country, in 2015, the European Commission conducted, for the first time, a thorough analysis of Romania’s situation, following which this country was ranked second in terms of macroeconomic imbalances. According to this category, Romania is a country with macroeconomic imbalances which require monitoring and political actions.

  13. Political Risk and the Cost of Capital in Asia-Pacific Property Markets

    OpenAIRE

    George D. Cashman; David M. Harrison; Hainan Sheng

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of political risk on the cost of capital for publicly traded real estate firms. More specifically, by using a sample of 102 REITs and listed property trusts, which hold nearly 6,000 distinct investment properties across the Asia-Pacific region, we find strong empirical evidence that increased exposure to political risk increases both the cost of equity financing of a firm and its weighted average cost of capital. Interestingly, no such linkages are apparent ...

  14. The importance of the impact of political risk factors in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudolf Essel

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Political risk factors often impact negatively on the financial results of an enterprise, industry, geographical region or an entire country. In severe cases they may even lead to financial disasters. Previous research (by Essel identified 10 specific political risk factors which are common to emerging market economies. As South Africa is a developing country with an emerging market economy, these 10 political risk factors should also be present in this country. This paper focuses on the importance of the impact of political risk factors on an agent’s total annual claims amount when underwriting political risk insurance in South Africa. The objective of this research paper embodies the improvement of financial decision-making by a particular enterprise, industry, geographical region or country operating in an emerging market economy, pertaining to the importance of the impact of political risk factors. A literature study as well as an empirical survey was done to achieve the study’s objective. The conclusions of this research should also be valuable to other enterprises, industries, geographical regions or countries which operate in an emerging market economy.

  15. Expanding the disaster risk management framework: Measuring the constructed level of national identity as a factor of political risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barend Prinsloo

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Political risk is identified as a dominant risk category of disaster risk management (DRM which could negatively affect the success of those measures implemented to reduce disaster risk. Key to political risk is the construct of national identity which, if poorly constructed, could greatly contribute to political risk. This article proposed a tool to measure the construct of national identity and to provide recommendations to strengthen the construct in order to mitigate the exacerbating influence it may have on political risk and ultimately on DRM. The design of the measurement tool consisted of a mixed methodological approach employing both quantitative and qualitative data. The data collection instruments included a literature review (which is shortly provided in the previous sections and an empirical study that utilised data obtained through structured questionnaires. Although the results of the proposed measuring instrument did not include a representative sample of all the cultures in SouthAfrica, the results alluded to different levels for the construction of national identity among black and white respondents, possibly because of different ideological expectations among these groups. The results of the study should be considered as a validation of the measuring tool and not necessarily of the construct of national identity in South Africa. The measuring tool is thus promising for future studies to reduce political risk and ultimately disaster risk.

  16. Political changes and trends in cardiovascular risk factors in the Czech Republic, 1985-92.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobak, M; Skodova, Z; Pisa, Z; Poledne, R; Marmot, M

    1997-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Mortality from cardiovascular diseases is substantially higher in central and eastern Europe than in the west. After the fall of communism, these countries have undergone radical changes in their political, social, and economic environments but little is known about the impact of these changes on health behaviours or risk factors. Data from the Czech Republic, a country whose mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases are among the highest, were analysed in this report. OBJECTIVES: To examine the trends in cardiovascular risk factors in Czech population over the last decade during which a major and sudden change of the political and social system occurred in 1989, and whether the trends differed in relation to age and educational group. DESIGN AND SETTING: Data from three cross sectional surveys conducted in 1985, 1988, and 1992 as a part of the MONICA project were analysed. The surveys examined random samples of men and women aged 25-64 in six Czech districts and measured the following risk factors: smoking, blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), and total and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol. RESULTS: The numbers of subjects (response rate) examined were 2573 (84%) in 1985, 2769 (87%) in 1988, and 2353 (73%) in 1992. Total cholesterol and body mass index increased between 1985 and 1988 and decreased between 1988 and 1992. The prevalence of smoking was declining slightly in men between 1985 and 1992 but remained stable in women. There were only small changes in blood pressure. The decline in cholesterol and BMI in 1988-92 may be related to changes in foods consumption after the price deregulation in 1991. An improvement in risk profile was more pronounced in younger age groups, and the declines in cholesterol and obesity were substantially larger in men and women with higher education. By contrast, there was an increase in smoking in women educated only to primary level. CONCLUSION: Substantial changes in cholesterol, obesity, and women

  17. Currency Risk Management under Floating Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicu Duret

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available As for the research into this subject, we find, therefore, that one of the most important indicators that quantify the international competitiveness is the exchange rate, together with other fundamental macroeconomic variables such as the size of the potential GDP, the equilibrium real exchange rate, gives a certain insight into the functioning of the fundamental macroeconomic mechanisms and their regulation. Commercial and financial operations imply relationships between partners from different currency countries or areas that involve conversion operations, of replacement of a currency to another. Exchange rate fluctuations of one currency create currency risk, to the extent that it is used to carry out international transactions. These operations are subjected to currency risk as exchange rates change frequently from one period to another and, on the other hand, speculations in the forex market influence the exchange rate by the interventions of those who perform them.

  18. Climate Change, State Stability, and Political Risk in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-30

    and how climate change poses threats to stability in Africa, identified strategies to support accountable and effective governance in Africa, and...interviews, the CCAPS program seeks to identify where and how climate change could undermine state stability, to define strategies for building...269–81. v Lisa Friedman, “Which Nations Are Most Vulnerable to Climate Change ? The Daunting Politics of Choosing ,” 2010, http://www.nytimes.com/cwire

  19. 13 CFR 120.1015 - Risk Rating System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1015 Risk Rating System. (a) Risk Rating. SBA may assign a Risk Rating to all SBA Lenders, Intermediaries, and NTAPs on a periodic basis. Risk Ratings are based on certain... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk Rating System. 120.1015...

  20. On the spillover of exchange rate risk into default risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Božović Miloš

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reduce the exchange-rate risk, banks in emerging markets are typically denominating their loans in foreign currencies. However, in the event of a substantial depreciation of the local currency, the payment ability of a foreign-currency borrower may be reduced significantly, exposing the lender to additional default risk. This paper analyses how the exchange-rate risk of foreign currency loans spills over into default risk. We show that in an economy where foreign currency loans are a dominant source of financing economic activity, depreciation of the local currency establishes a negative feedback mechanism that leads to higher default probabilities, reduced credit supply, and reduced growth. This finding has some important implications that may be of special interest for regulators and market participants in emerging economies.

  1. VaR: Exchange Rate Risk and Jump Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fen-Ying Chen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Incorporating the Poisson jumps and exchange rate risk, this paper provides an analytical VaR to manage market risk of international portfolios over the subprime mortgage crisis. There are some properties in the model. First, different from past studies in portfolios valued only in one currency, this model considers portfolios not only with jumps but also with exchange rate risk, that is vital for investors in highly integrated global financial markets. Second, in general, the analytical VaR solution is more accurate than historical simulations in terms of backtesting and Christoffersen's independence test (1998 for small portfolios and large portfolios. In other words, the proposed model is reliable not only for a portfolio on specific stocks but also for a large portfolio. Third, the model can be regarded as the extension of that of Kupiec (1999 and Chen and Liao (2009.

  2. The Pros and Cons of Using Joint Ventures as a Tool to Mitigate Political Risks in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Violeta Iftinchi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available As part of their political risk management strategy, multinational corporations (MNCs can use joint ventures as a tool to reduce their exposure to political risks in international activities. The aim of this article is to present the main benefits for MNCs in using joint ventures with a local partner to mitigate political risks in developing countries and to put forward three risks that MNCs have to consider when choosing the local partner (the risk of opportunistic expropriation, the risk associated with transferring of intellectual property rights and reputational risk.

  3. The dynamic relationship between homicide rates and social, economic, and political factors from 1970 to 2000*.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCall, Patricia L; Parker, Karen F; MacDonald, John M

    2008-09-01

    After reaching their highest levels of the 20th century, homicide rates in the United States declined precipitously in the early 1990s. This study examines a number of factors that might have contributed to both the sharp increase and decline in homicide rates. We use a pooled cross-sectional time series model to assess the relationship between changes in structural conditions and the change in homicide rates over four decennial time points (1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000). We assess the extent to which structural covariates associated with social, economic and political conditions commonly used in homicide research (e.g., urban decay, poverty, and the weakening of family and social bonds) are related to the change in homicide rates. Along with these classic covariates, we incorporate some contemporary explanations (e.g., imprisonment rates and drug trafficking) that have been proposed to address the recent decline in urban homicide rates. Our results indicate that both classic and contemporary explanations are related to homicide trends over the last three decades of the 20th century. Specifically, changes in resource deprivation and in the relative size of the youth population are associated with changes in the homicide rate across these time points. Increased imprisonment is also significantly related to homicide changes. These findings lead us to conclude that efforts to understand the changing nature of homicide will require serious consideration, if not integration, of classic and contemporary explanations.

  4. Refuse and the ‘Risk Society’: The Political Ecology of Risk in Inter-war Britain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Timothy; Bulmer, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    This article responds to current critiques of Ulrich Beck's ‘risk society’ thesis by historians of science and medicine. Those who have engaged with the concept of risk society have been content to accept the fundamental categories of Beck's analysis. In contrast, we argue that Beck's risk society thesis underplays two key themes. First, the role of capitalist social relations as the driver of technological change and the transformation of everyday life; and second, the ways in which hegemonic discourses of risk can be appropriated and transformed by counter-hegemonic forces. In place of ‘risk society’, we propose an approach based upon a ‘political ecology of risk’, which emphasises the social relations that are fundamental to the everyday politics of environmental health. PMID:24771975

  5. Risk, value conflict and political legitimacy. Chapter 7

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cotgrove, S.

    1981-01-01

    The differing views of environmentalists, the public and industrialists on the perception of dangers to the environment are analysed. The subject is continued under the headings: competing paradigms; acceptable risk; values for money - flowers or production; a crisis of legitimacy (query). (U.K.)

  6. The Politics of Co-Production: Risks, Limits and Pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flinders, Matthew; Wood, Matthew; Cunningham, Malaika

    2016-01-01

    Co-production is a risky method of social inquiry. It is time-consuming, ethically complex, emotionally demanding, inherently unstable, vulnerable to external shocks, subject to competing demands and it challenges many disciplinary norms. This is what makes it so fresh and innovative. And yet these research-related risks are rarely discussed and,…

  7. Site selection and rating process, and criteria for a social and political approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boisseson, P. de; David, J.F.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: sensitive projects have been for long the problem of engineers and geologists, which tried to exert a kind of mono-cultural approach upon decisions regarding: a type of technical solution, a choice for a location. Experience drawn from various projects shows that public choices must be targeted to public acceptance and not only to hard-science community. Ways of rating site for sensitive projects according to criteria derived from social and political approach have been set up to provide global advice to decision makers. Bases are found among: socio economical statistics (type and rate of employment), land use regulations, history of public and local acceptance of former projects or public regulations. Representations can be drawn through social modeling and qualitative analysis. They can be of an utmost importance in decision making process. (authors)

  8. Political risk of social security: the case of the indexation of benefits in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dušek, Libor

    -, Č. 318 (2007), s. 1-29 ISSN 1211-3298 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Grant - others:GA ČR GA402/05/0711 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : social security * political risk * pension reform Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp318.pdf

  9. Panama disease and contract farming in the Philippines: Towards a political ecology of risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    La Cruz, De Jaye; Jansen, Kees

    2018-01-01

    Despite the vast research on contract farming by agrarian scholars, little is known about interactions between biological risks and the social–political effects of contracts. This study analysed contract farming arrangements in the export banana industry in the Philippines amidst an expanding

  10. How political affiliation affects adaptation to climate risks: Evidence from New York City

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botzen, W.J.W.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Kunreuther, H; De Moel, H; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    Research reveals that liberals and conservatives in the United States diverge about their beliefs regarding climate change. We show empirically that political affiliation also matters with respect to climate related risks such as flooding from hurricanes. Our study is based on a survey conducted 6

  11. Political affiliation affects adaptation to climate risks : Evidence from New York City

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botzen, W. J Wouter; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Kunreuther, Howard; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2016-01-01

    Research reveals that liberals and conservatives in the United States diverge about their beliefs regarding climate change. We show empirically that political affiliation also matters with respect to climate related risks such as flooding from hurricanes. Our study is based on a survey conducted 6

  12. Academic and scientometric ratings in the process of science and education globalization: Socio-political implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V G Ivanov

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The authors analyze some actual socio-political implications of the contemporary process of the broad recognition and expansion of global academic and scientometric ratings, as well as their impact on the state policy in the scientific and educational fields in the Russian Federation. The authors introduce the concept “charts power” as an important component of “soft power” of nation-states and international institutions for the most popular global academic and scientometric ratings can be used as an economic and foreign policy weapon. The article considers the leading academic ratings (Shanghai Academic Ranking of World Universities, Higher Education Index and QS World University Ranking and the key scietometric ratings (Web of Science and Scopus. The authors believe that the charts power of other countries represents a real and potential threat for the national security of the Russian Federation, and provide some recommendations to mitigate the challenges, for instance, to create and promote (in due course internationally a comparative index of trust to the international ratings including academic ones.

  13. Integrated risk assessment and risk governance as socio-political phenomena: a synthetic view of the challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assmuth, Timo; Hildén, Mikael; Benighaus, Christina

    2010-08-15

    To call for integration in risk assessment and governance as a self-evident goal is deceptively easy. For more insight, we ask: what level and kind of integration and for what purposes is needed and sufficient? What opportunities and obstacles can be identified for integrative treatment of risks? What causes and impacts are there of developments in risk integration? To answer these questions we investigate the socio-political processes and factors surrounding integrated risk assessment and risk governance through a combination of literature reviews and original research. We emphasize regulatory assessment and governance of risks associated with chemicals in the EU, but we link them with other areas to better grasp options and problems in integration. We relate the problems to political factors and barriers in sector and vertical integration, including deviating interests, and further to conflicting information, concepts and mindsets. Risk assessment and risk governance involve varying notions of risks and knowledge, with tensions between stressor- or impact-oriented, exclusive or inclusive, positivist or relativist, and fixed or reflexive notions and approaches. These tensions influence the trajectories of integration between sectors, actors and regions, constraining the fulfillment of ideals of integrated governance. We conclude that risk assessment and governance can be integrated, harmonized and innovated to a limit only, but this limit is variable and flexible, and provides opportunities especially if attention is paid to the socio-political contexts, value choices and decision structures in each case. Generally, the results underline a reflexive approach whereby the meanings, framings and implications of risk integration are probed in open processes of deliberation and negotiation, as a learning process to transcend the formal and prescriptive modes of regulation and knowledge generation. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Smoking and (Not) Voting: The Negative Relationship Between a Health-Risk Behavior and Political Participation in Colorado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albright, Karen; Hood, Nancy; Ma, Ming; Levinson, Arnold H

    2016-03-01

    Considerable evidence suggests that cigarette smokers are an increasingly marginalized population, involved in fewer organizations and activities and with less interpersonal trust than their nonsmoking counterparts. However, only two previous studies, both among Swedish populations, have investigated smokers' attitudes toward political systems and institutions. The current, cross-sectional study examines smoking in relation to voting, a direct behavioral measure of civic and political engagement that at least partly reflects trust in formal political institutions. Secondary analyses were conducted of interview data from 11 626 respondents in the Colorado Tobacco Attitudes and Behaviors Survey. Data were collected via telephone between October 2005 and mid-April 2006 and included respondents' reported voting behavior in the 2004 national election; the participation rate was 89.7%. Balanced multiple logistic regression was used to examine associations between smoking and voting while controlling for other covariates known to be associated with both variables. In the final model, daily smokers were less than half as likely as nonsmokers to report having voted in the election. The results suggest possible consonance with previous work linking smoking with political mistrust. Possible causal mechanisms are discussed. This study is the first to link a health-risk behavior with electoral participation, and provides initial evidence that smoking is negatively associated with political participation. Future research should investigate how public health might enhance tobacco control efforts by taking nonvoting behavior into consideration, or creatively combining smoking cessation interventions with voter registration and other civic engagement work, particularly among socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is

  15. Political party affiliation, political ideology and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pabayo, Roman; Kawachi, Ichiro; Muennig, Peter

    2015-05-01

    Ecological and cross-sectional studies have indicated that conservative political ideology is associated with better health. Longitudinal analyses of mortality are needed because subjective assessments of ideology may confound subjective assessments of health, particularly in cross-sectional analyses. Data were derived from the 2008 General Social Survey-National Death Index data set. Cox proportional analysis models were used to determine whether political party affiliation or political ideology was associated with time to death. Also, we attempted to identify whether self-reported happiness and self-rated health acted as mediators between political beliefs and time to death. In this analysis of 32,830 participants and a total follow-up time of 498,845 person-years, we find that political party affiliation and political ideology are associated with mortality. However, with the exception of independents (adjusted HR (AHR)=0.93, 95% CI 0.90 to 0.97), political party differences are explained by the participants' underlying sociodemographic characteristics. With respect to ideology, conservatives (AHR=1.06, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.12) and moderates (AHR=1.06, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.11) are at greater risk for mortality during follow-up than liberals. Political party affiliation and political ideology appear to be different predictors of mortality. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  16. Management and policy: political strategies and instruments of the risk types

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renn, O.; Klinke, A.

    1998-01-01

    The main objective of the risk classification is to gain an effective and feasible policy tool for the evaluation and the management or risks. The characterisation provides a platform for designing specific political strategies and measures for each risk type. The strategies pursue the goal to transform unacceptable into acceptable risks, i.e. the risks should not be reduced to zero, but they should be reduced to a level that routine risk management becomes sufficient to ensure safety and integrity. All strategies and respective measures are arranged according to priorities. In the normal case more than one strategy and more than one measure are naturally appropriate and necessary. If resources are limited, strategies and measures should be taken in line with the priority list. The following part lists the prior strategies and the prior measures recommended for each risk type. (authors)

  17. Asylum grant rates following medical evaluations of maltreatment among political asylum applicants in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lustig, Stuart L; Kureshi, Sarah; Delucchi, Kevin L; Iacopino, Vincent; Morse, Samantha C

    2008-02-01

    Although many individuals applying for political asylum allege maltreatment and sometimes torture in their countries of origin, the utility of medical evaluations in asylum adjudication has not been documented. This study compares the asylum grant rate among US asylum seekers who received medical evaluations from Physicians for Human Rights (PHR), with rates among asylum seekers who did not receive PHR evaluations. Retrospective analysis was carried out on all asylum cases referred to PHR between 2000 and 2004 for medical evaluations for which adjudication outcome was available. Basic demographic information was obtained: age, sex, country of origin, English language ability, US region where adjudication occurred, whether legal representation was pro bono, type of evaluation, provision of oral court testimony, and whether asylum seekers were in detention. Cases were analyzed descriptively and with chi square tests. Between 2000 and 2004, 1663 asylum seekers received medical evaluations from PHR; the adjudication status (either granted or denied) was determined in 746 cases at the time of the study. Of these cases, 89% were granted asylum, compared to the national average of 37.5% among US asylum seekers who did not receive PHR evaluations. Medical evaluations may be critical in the adjudications of asylum cases when maltreatment is alleged.

  18. Exchange Rate Risk On The Mortgage Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siemińska Ewa

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Strict connections of the real estate market with the financial market are an unquestionable phenomenon at every level of investing, starting from the lowest individual investor, and finishing with national and transnational players. One of the more interesting examples of such a dependency is the problem of the risk of financing the real estate market, which results from numerous macro-, mezo- and microeconomic conditions, including, inter alias, the phenomenon of capital migration, supranational bank regulations or the development of currency exchange rates on world markets. The most recent example of such a dependency is, among others, the decision of the National Bank of Switzerland from the beginning of 2015 to abandon the Swiss franc-euro cap, which will go down in the history of the world financial market. Its global effects will surely be very difficult to assess, while the resulting turbulences and consequences for many (institutional, corporation and individual market participants cause, on the one hand, awaiting a reaction and actions aimed at helping entities affected by the consequences of the mentioned decision and, on the other, many questions and doubts.

  19. The Politics of Hope and Despair: The Effect of Presidential Election Outcomes on Suicide Rates*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Classen, Timothy J.; Dunn, Richard A.

    2010-01-01

    Objectives This article examines the effect of election outcomes on suicide rates by combining the theory of social integration developed by Durkheim with the models of rational choice used in economics. Methods Theory predicts that states with a greater percentage of residents who supported the losing candidate would tend to exhibit a relative increase in suicide rates. However, being around others who also supported the losing candidate may indicate a greater degree of social integration at the local level, thereby lowering relative suicide rates. We therefore use fixed-effects regression of state suicide rates from 1981 to 2005 on state election outcomes during presidential elections to determine which effect is stronger. Results We find that the local effect of social integration is dominant. The suicide rate when a state supports the losing candidate will tend to be lower than if the state had supported the winning candidate—4.6 percent lower for males and 5.3 percent lower for females. Conclusion Social integration works at many levels; it not only affects suicide risk directly, but can mediate other shocks that influence suicide risk. PMID:20645463

  20. A public health framework to translate risk factors related to political violence and war into multi-level preventive interventions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, J.T.V.M.

    2010-01-01

    Political violence, armed conflicts and human rights violations are produced by a variety of political, economic and socio-cultural factors. Conflicts can be analyzed with an interdisciplinary approach to obtain a global understanding of the relative contribution of risk and protective factors. A

  1. Exchange rate policy under sovereign default risk

    OpenAIRE

    Schabert, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    We examine monetary policy options for a small open economy where sovereign default might occur due to intertemporal insolvency. Under interest rate policy and floating exchange rates the equilibrium is indetermined. Under a fixed exchange rate the equilibrium is uniquely determined and independent of sovereign default.

  2. Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk-Assessment Battlefield

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slovic, Paul

    2001-01-01

    Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept 'risk' and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by world views, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach-one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical analysis, and increase

  3. Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk-Assessment Battlefield

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slovic, Paul [Decision Research, Eugene, OR (United States)

    2001-07-01

    Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept 'risk' and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by world views, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach-one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical

  4. How is political risk managed and prioritised in the aerospace and defence industry across different institutional contexts?

    OpenAIRE

    Ramanathan, Alexandre

    2015-01-01

    This dissertation investigates the management and prioritisation of political risk in the aerospace and defence industry using a multiple research approach of 2014 corporate annual reports, surveys, interviews and fuzzy set QCA analysis. The aim of the paper sets out to demonstrate that political risk in the aerospace and defence industry extends further than the traditional definitions based on host-country conditions and the social license to operate, but also largely on the dual relatio...

  5. The Juvenile Addiction Risk Rating: Development and Initial Psychometrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Michael; Newgent, Rebecca A.

    2016-01-01

    This article describes the development and psychometrics of the Juvenile Addiction Risk Rating. The Juvenile Addiction Risk Rating is a brief screening of addiction potential based on 10 risk factors predictive of youth alcohol and drug-related problems that assists examiners in more accurate treatment planning when self-report information is…

  6. 75 FR 9257 - SBA Lender Risk Rating System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    ... identifying those SBA Lenders whose portfolio performance, or other Lender-specific risk-related factors, may... to enhance the predictive value of the model over the earlier model factors. II. The Redeveloped Risk... values of the risk rating model for 7(a) Lenders and was therefore included as a new 7(a) rating...

  7. POLAND IN AND OUTSIDE THE EURO ZONE – RISKS AND BENEFITS IN THE LIGHT OF NEW POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Dobrowolski

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the benefits and risks of Poland adopting the euro in the light of current political and economic conditions. For this purpose, the following research methods were used: literature research, intuitive method and descriptive statistics. Poland has fulfilled the criteria for nominal convergence for two years, apart from participating in the ERM II mechanism, but the political situation in the country precludes the adoption of measures leading to the euro zone. The future shape of this zone is yet unknown, as its closer integration is planned. Theoretical analysis indicates that the process of globalization makes it difficult for medium-sized, open-economy countries to pursue autonomous monetary and exchange rate policy, so the loss of these instruments after the adoption of the euro should not jeopardize long-term economic growth, even in the case of asymmetric shocks. The market mechanisms of restoring the balance and fiscal policy may then be used. The economy will also benefit from the elimination of transaction costs and exchange rate risks in the euro zone. The analysis shows that it is possible to use the opportunity for faster GDP growth associated with the adoption of the common currency if the right economic policy is pursued. Adopting the euro may also incur costs. For banks it can be the loss of foreign exchange earnings and commissions on FX hedge transactions. For the economy it can be the possibility of speculative bubbles, as a result of excessive consumption growth, caused by possibly too low interest rates. Expected benefits should, however, outweigh any losses.

  8. Simplifying cardiovascular risk estimation using resting heart rate.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-09-01

    Elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is a known, independent cardiovascular (CV) risk factor, but is not included in risk estimation systems, including Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). We aimed to derive risk estimation systems including RHR as an extra variable and assess the value of this addition.

  9. Exchange rate risk in Central European countries

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kočenda, Evžen; Poghosyan, T.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 1 (2010), s. 22-39 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/1376; GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : foreign exchange risk * time-varying risk premium * stochastic discount factor Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor : 0.278, year: 2010 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1178_str_22_39_-_ko%C4%8Denda.pdf

  10. [The decline in the population growth rate--a priority issue in international politics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhein, E

    1994-08-25

    The Third International UN Conference on Population and Development took place in Cairo in early September 1994 with the participation of 200 governments and 1000 nongovernmental organizations to discuss ways of stabilizing world population at the possible lowest level and how industrialized countries could contribute to this effort. As a consequence of the advances in reproductive medicine the use of contraceptives skyrocketed: in 1994 more than half of men and women were using contraception compared to only 5% in 1950. However, the demographic momentum would still increase world population for another 100 years, even if fertility would drop to 2.2 children per couple (compared to 4 children in 1990). Nevertheless, the present generation could be instrumental in deciding whether the world's population will remain around 8 billion or reach 12 billion between 2050 and 2150. Poor countries can no longer afford an annual growth rate of 2-4% while also trying to improve living standards; this would require an economic growth rate of 6-8%. For the control of population growth both a sustainable environmental policy in the North, with rapid transition to renewable energy and recycling, and a more effective population policy in the South are needed. Family planning (FP) is the precondition of stabilization. The global FP outlays are envisioned to double from the 1994 figure of $5 billion to over $10 billion in the year 2000, with donor contributions to increase from 20% to 40% of the total. The US contribution is to double from $500 million by 2000, while the European Commission decided to boost expenditures for FP from DM 30 million in 1994 to DM 600 million by 2000. Japan is also expending $3 billion during this period. Recent promising developments have emerged: national pronatalist policies have diminished sharply and the pronatalist influence of religions has also declined. Political commitment at the highest level is central to a successful population policy as

  11. Interest rate risk analysis with multifactor model

    OpenAIRE

    Campos, Natalia; Jareño Cebrián, Francisco; Tolentino García-Abadillo, Marta

    2016-01-01

    This study focuses on analyzing the influence of changes in 10-year nominal interest rates on US sector returns, distinguishing two different periods, before and after the subprime crisis. We run the three-factor model of Fama and French, which incorporates as explanatory factors the nominal interest rate and the size and growth opportunities factors. The US sensitivity varies across sectors and periods, but we evidence a similar response to the previous literature. Finally, the “size” ...

  12. Economic and political influence on tobacco tax rates: a nationwide analysis of 31 years of state data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Shelley D; Ribisl, Kurt M; Perreira, Krista M

    2014-02-01

    We evaluated state-level characteristics associated with cigarette excise taxes before and after the Master Settlement Agreement (MSA). We gathered annual cigarette excise tax rates for all US states and the District of Columbia, between 1981 and 2011, and matched each state-year tax rate with economic, political, attitudinal, and demographic characteristics, creating a data set of 1581 observations. We used panel data regression techniques to assess relationships between key characteristics and state cigarette excise tax levels. Cigarette excise tax rates grew at more than 6 times the rate of inflation between 1981 and 2011; growth varied by time period and region. We found strong negative associations between Republican Party control of state legislatures and governors' offices and state cigarette tax rates. Tobacco production, citizens' attitudes toward taxes and tobacco control, and cigarette tax rates in neighboring states were significantly associated with cigarette tax rates. We found no association between unemployment and tax rates. Future excise tax growth rate may depend more on the political leanings of state legislators, and the attitudes of the people they represent, than on economic circumstances.

  13. Association of suicide rates, gun ownership, conservatism and individual suicide risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kposowa, Augustine J

    2013-09-01

    The purpose of the study was to examine the association of suicide rates, firearm ownership, political conservatism, religious integration at the state level, and individual suicide risk. Social structural and social learning and social integration theories were theoretical frameworks employed. It was hypothesized that higher suicide rates, higher state firearm availability, and state conservatism elevate individual suicide risk. Data were pooled from the Multiple Cause of Death Files. Multilevel logistic regression models were fitted to all deaths occurring in 2000 through 2004 by suicide. The state suicide rate significantly elevated individual suicide risk (AOR = 1.042, CI = 1.037, 1.046). Firearm availability at the state level was associated with significantly higher odds of individual suicide (AOR = 1.004, CI = 1.003, 1.006). State political conservatism elevated the odds of individual suicides (AOR = 1.005, CI = 1.003, 1.007), while church membership at the state level reduced individual odds of suicide (AOR = 0.995, CI = 0.993, 0.996). The results held even after controlling for socioeconomic and demographic variables at the individual level. It was concluded that the observed association between individual suicide odds and national suicide rates, and firearm ownership cannot be discounted. Future research ought to focus on integrating individual level data and contextual variables when testing for the impact of firearm ownership. Support was found for social learning and social integration theories.

  14. Interest Rate Risk Management using Duration Gap Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Armeanu

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The world for financial institutions has changed during the last 20 years, and become riskier and more competitive-driven. After the deregulation of the financial market, banks had to take on extensive risk in order to earn sufficient returns. Interest rate volatility has increased dramatically over the past twenty-five years and for that an efficient management of this interest rate risk is strong required. In the last years banks developed a variety of methods for measuring and managing interest rate risk. From these the most frequently used in real banking life and recommended by Basel Committee are based on: Reprising Model or Funding Gap Model, Maturity Gap Model, Duration Gap Model, Static and Dynamic Simulation. The purpose of this article is to give a good understanding of duration gap model used for managing interest rate risk. The article starts with a overview of interest rate risk and explain how this type of risk should be measured and managed within an asset-liability management. Then the articles takes a short look at methods for measuring interest rate risk and after that explains and demonstrates how can be used Duration Gap Model for managing interest rate risk in banks.The world for financial institutions has changed during the last 20 years, and become riskier and more competitive-driven. After the deregulation of the financial market, banks had to take on extensive risk in order to earn sufficient returns. Interest rate volatility has increased dramatically over the past twenty-five years and for that an efficient management of this interest rate risk is strong required. In the last years banks developed a variety of methods for measuring and managing interest rate risk. From these the most frequently used in real banking life and recommended by Basel Committee are based on: Reprising Model or Funding Gap Model, Maturity Gap Model, Duration Gap Model, Static and Dynamic Simulation. The purpose of this article is to give a

  15. Resting heart rate and cardiovascular events: risk factor or risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    syndrome. In 139 194 patients with a non-ST-segment elevated acute coronary syndrome (NONSTEMI), a clear. J-shaped correlation was found between resting heart and all-cause mortality.5 The lowest mortality rate were in patients with resting heart rates between 50 and 70 beats per minute, but mortality doubled when ...

  16. A new energy paradigm for Turkey: A political risk-inclusive cost analysis for sustainable energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oksay, Serhan; Iseri, Emre

    2011-01-01

    Implementing sustainable development policies in order to achieve economic and social development while maintaining adequate environmental protection to minimize the damage inflicted by the constantly increasing world population must be a major priority in the 21st century. While the emerging global debate on potential cost-effective responses has produced potential solutions such as cap and trade systems and/or carbon taxes as part of evolving sustainable energy/environmental policies, this kind of intellectual inquiry does not seem to be an issue among Turkish policy-making elites. This is mainly due to their miscalculation that pursuing sustainable energy policies is much more expensive in comparison to the utilization of fossil fuels such as natural gas. Nevertheless, the pegged prices of an energy sector dominated by natural gas are illusive, as both the political risks and environmental damage have not been incorporated into the current cost calculations. This paper evaluates energy policies through a lens of risk management and takes an alternative approach to calculating energy costs by factoring in political risks. This formulation reveals that the cost of traditional fossil-based energy is in fact more expensive than renewable energy. In addition to being environmentally friendly, the paradigm shift towards renewable energy policies would provide Turkey with a significant opportunity to stimulate its economy by being one of the first countries to develop green technologies and as a result this burgeoning sector would prompt job creation as well; mainly due to the externalities. - Research highlights: → This paper evaluates Turkish energy policies through risk management scope and takes an alternative approach on calculating electricity costs by factoring in political risks. → The cost of traditional fossil-based energy turns out to be more expensive than renewable energy. → The paradigm shift towards renewable energy policies could provide Turkey

  17. Interest Rate Risk Management using Duration Gap Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Armeanu

    2008-01-01

    should be measured and managed within an asset-liability management. Then the articles takes a short look at methods for measuring interest rate risk and after that explains and demonstrates how can be used Duration Gap Model for managing interest rate risk in banks.

  18. 75 FR 13145 - SBA Lender Risk Rating System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-18

    ... of Credit Risk Management, U.S. Small Business Administration, 409 Third Street, SW., 8th Floor...)(7) and 15 U.S.C. 687(f). Dated: March 12, 2010. Bryan Hooper, Director, Office of Credit Risk... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION [Docket No. SBA-2010-0004] SBA Lender Risk Rating System AGENCY...

  19. Self-rated health and cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roelsgaard, Ida Kristiane; Olesen, Anne Marie; Simonsen, Mette Kildevæld

    2016-01-01

    proportional hazards model with adjustment for age, smoking, alcohol, marital status, physical activity, body mass index and estrogen replacement therapy. RESULTS: No significant association was found between SRH and overall cancer incidence in the age-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model (1.04; 95% CI 0.......93-1.16), even after adjustment for potential confounding factors (HR 1.08; 95% CI 0.96-1.21). Likewise, there was no significant association between SRH and breast cancer (HR 1.09; 95% CI 0.89-1.33), lung cancer (HR 1.03; 95% CI 0.71-1.49) or colon cancer (HR 1.08; 95% CI 0.75-1.54). CONCLUSION: SRH...... is not significantly associated with the incidence of all cancers or breast, lung or colon cancer among Danish female nurses. Women who reported a decrease in SRH between 1993 and 1999 had the same risk for cancer as those who reported unchanged or improved SRH....

  20. Economic, Socio-Political and Environmental Risks of Road Development in the Tropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alamgir, Mohammed; Campbell, Mason J; Sloan, Sean; Goosem, Miriam; Clements, Gopalasamy Reuben; Mahmoud, Mahmoud I; Laurance, William F

    2017-10-23

    It is projected that 25 million km of new paved roads will be developed globally by 2050 - enough to encircle the planet more than 600 times. Roughly 90% of new roads will be built in developing nations, frequently in tropical and subtropical regions with high biodiversity and environmental values. Many developing nations are borrowing from international lenders or negotiating access to their natural resources in order to expand their transportation infrastructure. Given the unprecedented pace and extent of these initiatives, it is vital to thoroughly assess the potential consequences of large-scale road and highway projects. In appropriate contexts and locales, new roads can promote sizeable economic and social benefits. If poorly planned or implemented, however, new roads can provoke serious cost overruns, corruption and environmental impacts, while generating sparse economic benefits and intense social and political conflict. Using examples from developing nations, we identify risks that can hinder road projects in wet and dry tropical environments. Such risks, we assert, are often inadequately considered by project proponents, evaluators and the general public, creating a systematic tendency to overestimate project benefits while understating project risks. A more precautionary approach is needed to reduce risks while maximizing benefits of new road projects in the tropics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. The pharmaceuticalization of sexual risk: vaccine development and the new politics of cancer prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamo, Laura; Epstein, Steven

    2014-01-01

    Vaccine development is a core component of pharmaceutical industry activity and a key site for studying pharmaceuticalization processes. In recent decades, two so-called cancer vaccines have entered the U.S. medical marketplace: a vaccine targeting hepatitis B virus (HBV) to prevent liver cancers and a vaccine targeting human papillomavirus (HPV) to prevent cervical and other cancers. These viruses are two of six sexually transmissible infectious agents (STIs) that are causally linked to the development of cancers; collectively they reference an expanding approach to apprehending cancer that focuses attention simultaneously "inward" toward biomolecular processes and "outward" toward risk behaviors, sexual practices, and lifestyles. This paper juxtaposes the cases of HBV and HPV and their vaccine trajectories to analyze how vaccines, like pharmaceuticals more generally, are emblematic of contemporary pharmaceuticalization processes. We argue that individualized risk, in this case sexual risk, is produced and treated by scientific claims of links between STIs and cancers and through pharmaceutical company and biomedical practices. Simultaneous processes of sexualization and pharmaceuticalization mark these cases. Our comparison demonstrates that these processes are not uniform, and that the production of risks, subjects, and bodies depends not only on the specificities of vaccine development but also on the broader political and cultural frames within which sexuality is understood. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. A public health framework to translate risk factors related to political violence and war into multi-level preventive interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Jong, Joop T V M

    2010-01-01

    Political violence, armed conflicts and human rights violations are produced by a variety of political, economic and socio-cultural factors. Conflicts can be analyzed with an interdisciplinary approach to obtain a global understanding of the relative contribution of risk and protective factors. A public health framework was designed to address these risk factors and protective factors. The framework resulted in a matrix that combined primary, secondary and tertiary interventions with their implementation on the levels of the society-at-large, the community, and the family and individual. Subsequently, the risk and protective factors were translated into multi-sectoral, multi-modal and multi-level preventive interventions involving the economy, governance, diplomacy, the military, human rights, agriculture, health, and education. Then the interventions were slotted in their appropriate place in the matrix. The interventions can be applied in an integrative form by international agencies, governments and non-governmental organizations, and molded to meet the requirements of the historic, political-economic and socio-cultural context. The framework maps the complementary fit among the different actors while engaging themselves in preventive, rehabilitative and reconstructive interventions. The framework shows how the economic, diplomatic, political, criminal justice, human rights, military, health and rural development sectors can collaborate to promote peace or prevent the aggravation or continuation of violence. A deeper understanding of the association between risk and protective factors and the developmental pathways of generic, country-specific and culture-specific factors leading to political violence is needed.

  3. Theory and methodology of social, political and economic processes risks determining in different countries of the world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yashina Nadezhda, I.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The study deals with the problems of the theory and methodology of social, political and economic processes risks in different countries with relative indicators of the socio-economic development level, as well as the size and condition of the public debt. Developed by the authors the methodology of determining the risks of social, political and economic processes of public policy around the world revealed close relationship between socio-economic situation of the countries and their public debt. Within the framework of this methodology two groups of factors characterizing the socio-political and economic processes in the country are being developed. After that each exponent and indicator are being processed, using expert procedures. Maximum statutory values for tentatively referenced countries with effective and ineffective government policies are identified. Then standardization (specification and definition of integral (generalized indexes of socio-political and economic processes in the country are taking place. After that the ranking of countries by aggregated standardized ratio is arranged, taking into account the significance of the developed indicators. The final phase of implementation methodology is identifying risks of social, political and economic processes of public policy around the world. This is the ranking of countries by ratio of stability in public policy (stability of economic and socio-political processes in the country. As the result of implementation methodology the following output was received: what really makes a difference is not the amount of the country's debt, but how effectively it manages this debt, whether it has a goal to improve social and economic indicators. Practical testing methodology has proven that studied indicators fully characterize the development of the countries, their political, social and economic situation on the world stage.

  4. Risks and rewards of variable-rate debt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordahl, Eric A

    2012-05-01

    Hospital and health system finance leaders should position their organizations to participate in the variable-rate market. To this end, one important step is to establish the right baseline variable-rate exposure target for the organization based on its credit and risk profile. Leaders also should be thoroughly familiar with the available products and understand the circumstances (pricing, terms, and embedded risk) under which the organization would be willing to deploy them within the overall capital structure.

  5. Study of the effect of political measures on the citizen participation rate in recycling and on the environmental load reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsui, Yasuhiro; Tanaka, Masaru; Ohsako, Masahiro

    2007-01-01

    Obtaining the cooperation of citizens to participate in separate waste collection is essential to create a recycling-oriented society. In this research, the degree of change in the citizen participation rate, which occurs when the contents of political measures such as the raising of awareness, provision of information, and the conditions of collection services were changed, was estimated together with the effect on the reduction in environmental load. A questionnaire survey was conducted, targeted at residents of Itabashi Ward, while logistic regression analyses were also conducted to create predictive models for recycling behavior, and sensitivity analyses of the models were carried out to estimate the increase in citizen participation rate achievable through the implementation of various political measures. It was found that the effect of 'thorough perception of information' was the largest, followed by 'minimization of evaluation of trouble' and 'thorough perception of efficacy of measures.' The effect of the improvement in the citizen participation rate on the reduction in environmental load was also evaluated quantitatively by life cycle inventory analyses. It was indicated that 'maximization of perception of information' had the greatest effect. However, the reduction effect with 'paper packs' and 'PET bottles' was relatively small compared with that of 'bottles/cans.'

  6. College Students' Perceived Disease Risk versus Actual Prevalence Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Matthew Lee; Dickerson, Justin B.; Sosa, Erica T.; McKyer, E. Lisako J.; Ory, Marcia G.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To compare college students' perceived disease risk with disease prevalence rates. Methods: Data were analyzed from 625 college students collected with an Internet-based survey. Paired t-tests were used to separately compare participants' perceived 10-year and lifetime disease risk for 4 diseases: heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and…

  7. Allostatic load and heart rate variability as health risk indicators ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Uncertainty often exists about the comparability of results obtained by different health risk indicator systems. Objectives: To compare two health risk indicator systems, i.e, allostatic load and heart rate variability (HRV). Additionally, to investigate the feasibility of inclusion of HRV indicators into allostatic load ...

  8. Emotions, Public Opinion, and U.S. Presidential Approval Rates: A 5-Year Analysis of Online Political Discussions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Bailon, Sandra; Banchs, Rafael E.; Kaltenbrunner, Andreas

    2012-01-01

    This article examines how emotional reactions to political events shape public opinion. We analyze political discussions in which people voluntarily engage online to approximate the public agenda: Online discussions offer a natural approach to the salience of political issues and the means to analyze emotional reactions as political events take…

  9. The effects of name and religious priming on ratings of a well-known political figure, President Barack Obama.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Gary A; Guichard, AnaMarie C; An, JungHa

    2017-01-01

    Priming with race-typed names and religious concepts have been shown to activate stereotypes and increase prejudice towards out-groups. We examined the effects of name and religious word priming on views of a specific and well-known person, President Barack Obama. We predicted that politically conservative participants primed with President Obama's middle name (Hussein) would rate him more negatively and be more likely to view him as a Muslim than those not shown his middle name. We also examined whether conservatives primed with concrete religious words would rate President Obama more negatively and be more likely to view him as Muslim than those primed with other word types. Furthermore, we predicted that those who mis-identify President Obama as Muslim would rate him more negatively than would those who view him as Christian. The results provided mixed support for these hypotheses. Conservatives primed with President Obama's middle name rated him significantly more negatively than did those in the control condition. This effect was not found for politically liberal or moderate participants. Name priming did not significantly affect views of President Obama's religious affiliation. Although not statistically significant, conservatives primed with abstract religious words tended to rate President Obama more negatively than did those primed with other word types. Religious word priming significantly influenced views of President Obama's religious affiliation; interestingly, participants primed with abstract religious words were more likely to think President Obama is Muslim than were those primed with religious agent or non-religious words. As predicted, participants who thought president Obama was Muslim rated him significantly more negatively than did those who thought he was Christian. Overall, our results provide some evidence that ethnic name and religious word priming can significantly influence opinions, even with a well-known and specific person.

  10. THE POLITICS OF THE NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA TO DEAL WITH CREDITING RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vechiu Camelia

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The market economy refers to the implicit presence of a banking system which could ensure the mobilization of all the monetary resources of the respective economy and their temporary orientation towards the development of efficient economic activities. A significant aspect of the bank performance refers to the measurement of risks with the aim to diminish them. If the bank management is poor and the risks are not taken into consideration, it will be possible that the earning capacity to be reduced and to lead even to the bankruptcy. Due to the fact that the banks are lending, they assume risks which are determined by the doubtful debtor (it appears the insolvency, or by the general economic evolution (which involves interest and exchange rate risks, or by the financial structure of the bank (financing long-term credits from short or sight deposits. The bank risk can be determined by external or internal factors of the bank due to the competitive environment. In the professional literature, the methodology used for the risk management involves several steps: the risk identification and analysis; the risk elimination and control; the risk assessment and assuming; the risk financing by debiting the general or specific reserves or by transfer which means the insurance of the bank company. For those banks operating in Romania, the risks are even more evident due to the hostile environment in which they operate, but also due to the specificity of the Romanian banking system which is still evolving and adapting to the competitive stringencies of the market economy. This paper is trying to follow the risk involvement towards the bank activity taking into account its importance and role in order to ensure the increase of the bank earning capacity.

  11. SRP meeting: social and political implications of communicating radiation risk, Daresbury, Warrington, 20 June 2001

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davies, Karen

    2001-12-01

    The SRP held a very interesting meeting in June at the Daresbury Laboratory in Warrington on the social and political implications of communicating radiation risk. In today's risk-aware society, effective communication is just as important as the control measures introduced to prevent or restrict exposure. In relation to radiation protection, risk communicators had a hard job because of: Public dread Likelihood of risk intensification Perceived inequitable distribution of risks. The higher the uncertainty, the more wary people were likely to be. Julie cited the International Nuclear Events Scale (INES) as a possible tool for promoting a consistent message across all publics. This was because it aimed to put events into proper perspective and provide a common understanding amongst the nuclear community, the media and the public. Julie summed up by saying that the risk communication was not just any form of communication and the issue of communicating radiation risks involved special consideration. Further research established that the more information given to the local population, the more likely that they would deny that there was a problem. Denial could moderate beliefs or emotional reactions to a situation. This then affected their dose as they were more likely to adopt risky behaviour by eating contaminated food and entering contaminated areas. Avoiding the need to undertake safe behaviour reduced stress levels. Furthermore, people adopted beliefs to suit their situation. For example, some inhabitants of the affected areas became adapted to the radiation and actually felt worse outside the contaminated area. There was strong pressure for the maintenance of a situation which actually prevented appropriate precautions being taken. Peter concluded that there was often confusion over the details of technical information that sometimes might not help to prevent a course of action being taken. However on a positive note the research did find credence and

  12. Time-Varying Risk, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates in General Equilibrium

    OpenAIRE

    Fernando Alvarez; Andrew Atkeson; Patrick J. Kehoe

    2009-01-01

    Under mild assumptions, the data indicate that fluctuations in nominal interest rate differentials across currencies are primarily fluctuations in time-varying risk. This finding is an immediate implication of the fact that exchange rates are roughly random walks. If most fluctuations in interest differentials are thought to be driven by monetary policy, then the data call for a theory which explains how changes in monetary policy change risk. Here, we propose such a theory based on a general...

  13. Modeling the exchange rate using price levels and country risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gábor Regős

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper builds two factor discrete time models in order to investigate the effect of sovereign risk on the nominal exchange rates in a Markov switching framework. The empirical section of the paper uses seven currencies from Chile, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Iceland, Japan, Korea, and Mexico. To measure the sovereign risk, we use the credit rating agencies’ ratings classes as proxy variable. In the empirical part, four different versions of the model are calibrated and their in-sample and out-of-sample data will be analyzed leading to the conclusion that none of the four versions dominates the others. As an additional result, it is revealed that risk has significant effect on the nominal exchange rates.

  14. The effects of Obama's political success on the self-rated health of blacks, Hispanics, and whites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malat, Jennifer; Timberlake, Jeffrey M; Williams, David R

    2011-01-01

    Stress in the social environment can affect individual health. Election of the first Black President of the United States provides an opportunity to assess how a positive change in the macro-political climate impacts the health of Americans. Past research suggests that race-related political events influence the health of non-dominant racial groups. Yet many questions remain, including the types of events that affect health, the timing and durability of health effects, and whether effects are similar for Blacks and Hispanics in the United States. The present study uses data from the Ohio Family Health Survey, which was in the field from August 6, 2008 until January 24, 2009, to assess whether immediate changes in average self-rated health occurred after key events in the election of President Barack Obama. We find better average health ratings among Blacks and Hispanics immediately following Obama's nomination by the Democratic Party. Similar effects did not occur after the election or inauguration, and Whites showed no effect of any of the events. We discuss the implications of these findings in terms of the theoretical links between macro-level social conditions, race/ethnicity, and health.

  15. The social construction of risk and the controversial Brazilian Nuclear Program: among scientific, political and public

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camelo, Ana Paula

    2015-01-01

    This research aims to investigate the Brazilian Nuclear Program (PNB) stating as reference the Fukushima nuclear accident. Its main purpose is to analyze how the Japanese accident impacted the PNB. Therefore, the program will be analyzed within 10-years (2004-2014) in order to answer this question. The discussion launched in this thesis is based on the framework of the Social Studies of Science and Technology, which enables the understanding of socio-technical controversies beyond the social or technological determinism. Through the discussion of the concepts of framing, socio-technical imaginary, risk and governance of science and technology, the research shows how the controversy in focus has resulted in the opportunity to consider not only economic, technological, environmental issues about nuclear energy, but also its political dimensions and challenges. Among these challenges, and from very different perspectives, arise questions about the role nuclear energy plays in the Brazilian context, the future of the program and the decision making process on these issues. Despite the central purpose of this study is essentially on risks, PNB and on the Brazilian context, it should be pointed that it is impossible to consider it in isolation of what is happening internationally (considering interests, tensions, relations between actors, etc.) The research thereby identifies key implications of Fukushima in the international context, but focuses on the disputes regarding possible review of the PNB. It also highlights how the socio-technical controversies, such as the nuclear energy, demand or impose a discussion on the governance of science and technology, risk and on the engagement of different sectors and actors in decision-making on issues, that are at the same time about energy, technology and nationality relevance. All this reflection is made from multi-sited analysis, which allowed following the controversy surrounding nuclear energy, reheated by the Fukushima

  16. Making sense of climate change risks and responses at the community level: A cultural-political lens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ainka A. Granderson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available How to better assess, communicate and respond to risks from climate change at the community level have emerged as key questions within climate risk management. Recent research to address these questions centres largely on psychological factors, exploring how cognition and emotion lead to biases in risk assessment. Yet, making sense of climate change and its responses at the community level demands attention to the cultural and political processes that shape how risk is conceived, prioritized and managed. I review the emergent literature on risk perceptions and responses to climate change using a cultural-political lens. This lens highlights how knowledge, meaning and power are produced and negotiated across multiple stakeholders at the community level. It draws attention to the different ways of constructing climate change risks and suggests an array of responses at the community level. It further illustrates how different constructions of risk intersect with agency and power to shape the capacity for response and collective action. What matters are whose constructions of risk, and whose responses, count in decision-making. I argue for greater engagement with the interpretive social sciences in research, practice and policy. The interpretive social sciences offer theories and tools for capturing and problematising the ways of knowing, sense-making and mobilising around risks from climate change. I also highlight the importance of participatory approaches in incorporating the multiplicity of interests at the community level into climate risk management in fair, transparent and culturally appropriate ways.

  17. Failure rate data for fusion safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadwallader, L.C.

    1993-01-01

    The Fusion Safety Program (FSP) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) conducts safety research in materials, chemical reactions, safety analysis, risk assessment, and in component research and development to support existing magnetic fusion experiments and also to promote safety in the design of future experiments. One of the areas of safety research is applying probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods to fusion experiments. To apply PRA, we need a fusion-relevant radiological dose code and a component failure rate data base. This paper describes the FSP effort to develop a failure rate data base for fusion-specific components

  18. Total Return Swap Valuation with Counterparty Risk and Interest Rate Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anjiao Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the pricing of total return swap (TRS under the contagion models with counterparty risk and the interest rate risk. We assume that interest rate follows Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM forward interest rate model and obtain the Libor market interest rate. The cases where default is related to the interest rate and independent of interest rate are considered. Using the methods of change of measure and the “total hazard construction,” the joint default probabilities are obtained. Furthermore, we obtain the closed-form formulas of TRS under different contagion models, respectively.

  19. Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate and Risk of Survival in Acute ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: To assess the risk of survival in acute stroke using the MDRD equation derived estimated glomerular filtration rate. Design: A prospective observational cross-sectional study. Setting: Medical wards of a tertiary care hospital. Subjects: Eighty three acute stroke patients had GFR calculated within 48 hours of ...

  20. 77 FR 57990 - Interest Rate Risk Policy and Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-19

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 741 RIN 3133-AD66 Interest Rate Risk Policy and Program Correction In rule document 2012-02091, appearing on pages 55155-5167 in the issue of Thursday, February 2, 2012, make the...

  1. Bank Profitability and Risk-Taking under Low Interest Rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bikker, J.A.; Vervliet, Tobias M.

    The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of the unusually low interest rate environment on the soundness of the US banking sector in terms of profitability and risk-taking. Using both dynamic and static modeling approaches and various estimation techniques, we find that the low interest

  2. 76 FR 9870 - Financial Management Policies-Interest Rate Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-22

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Office of Thrift Supervision Financial Management Policies--Interest... concerning the following information collection. Title of Proposal: Financial Management Policies--Interest... managing their exposure to interest rate risk. To comply with this reporting requirement, institutions need...

  3. Government spending shocks, sovereign risk and the exchange rate regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonam, D.; Lukkezen, J.H.J.

    2014-01-01

    Keynesian theory predicts output responses upon a fiscal expansion in a small open economy to be larger under fixed than floating exchange rates. We analyse the effects of fiscal expansions using a New Keynesian model and find that the reverse holds in the presence of sovereign default risk. By

  4. KRW/USD Exchange Rate Volatility and Efficient Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang-Yong Joo

    1999-03-01

    Full Text Available This thesis analyzes the relationship between the exchange rate of Korean Won and US dollar and the amount of foreign exchange, and studies the direction of the amendment of the risk control of foreign exchange. The GARCH (Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model which visually embodies the auto-regress of the wave of exchange rate shows that the amount of trade will enhance the fluidity of the exchange rate, that is, the various expects of the participators of the market affect the amount of trade and the fluidity, so in the process of trading, the trader who is in the dry tree of information bears more trading expenditure. It is predicted that the liberalization of foreign exchange rate and fluctuated exchange rate system will jointly bring the enhancement of the fluidity of the exchange rate and the amount of exchange trade. The change of this system will bring the rise of participators in foreign exchange market; meanwhile, it will also initiate superfluous fluidity of foreign exchange market. In order to overcome this problem, the government needs to implement the development strategy of the understructure of the foreign exchange market and the enterprises need to carry through systemic exchange rate risk control.

  5. The impact of managerial political ties on cost of debt and institutional risk exposure: evidence from Ghana

    OpenAIRE

    Liedong, Tahiru Azaaviele

    2016-01-01

    This thesis integrates social capital and institutional theories with corporate governance insights to explore the impact of managerial political ties on access to finance, cost of debt and institutional risk exposure. Drawing on an extensive and rigorous assessment of the literature, using a unique set of survey data from 179 firms operating in Ghana, and employing robust analytical techniques, this thesis comprises three interrelated empirical studies which make significant contributions to...

  6. 76 FR 79379 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk; Alternatives to Credit Ratings for Debt and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-21

    ..., 225, et al. Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk; Alternatives to Credit Ratings for Debt and... RIN 3064-AD70 Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk; Alternatives to Credit Ratings for Debt and... credit ratings to determine the specific risk add-on for a debt position that is a covered position under...

  7. Recovering Risk-Neutral Densities from Brazilian Interest Rate Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Renato Haas Ornelas

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Building Risk-Neutral Density (RND from options data is one useful way for extracting market expectations about a financial variable. For a sample of IDI (Brazilian Interbank Deposit Rate Index options from 1998 to 2009, this paper estimates the option-implied Risk-Neutral Densities for the Brazilian short rate using three methods: Shimko, Mixture of Two Log-Normals and Generalized Beta of Second Kind. Our in-sample goodness-of-fit evaluation shows that the Mixture of Log-Normals method provides better fitting to option’s data than the other two methods. The shape of log-normal distributions seems to fit well to the mean-reversal dynamics of Brazilian interest rates. We have also calculated the RND implied Skewness, showing how it could have provided market early-warning signals of the monetary policy outcomes in 2002 and 2003. Overall, Risk-Neutral Densities implied on IDI options showed to be a useful tool for extracting market expectations about future outcomes of the monetary policy.

  8. Risk profiles of pork and poultry meat and risk ratings of various pathogen/product combinations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mataragas, M; Skandamis, P N; Drosinos, E H

    2008-08-15

    , served undercooked and receiving improper cooling or reheating (high risk population), and 3) all people consuming undercooked meals cross-contaminated with Campylobacter spp. (e.g. from raw poultry and raw poultry-meat products) and HEV (e.g. from raw pork and raw pork-meat products). Salmonellae gave high risk scores in all food categories (except preserved meat products) for high risk population. Preserved meats (mainly pork) such as dry fermented sausages gave low risk scores. Only Salmonella spp., L. monocytogenes and E. coli EHEC gave moderate risk ratings in case of ingredients likely to be contaminated at an early stage of processing (e.g. animal at slaughter) and inadequate fermentation process. These results may constitute a source of information for hazard assessment during application of a Food Safety Management System.

  9. Seeing Red, Feeling Blue: The Impact of State Political Leaning on State Identification Rates for Emotional Disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, Andrew; Siperstein, Gary

    2011-01-01

    Investigations of why students with emotional disturbance (ED) are underidentified in special education have often focused on economic factors and problems with the definition of ED. The present study focuses on variation in underidentification across states and its relationship to political ideology. State-level political, economic, and…

  10. Multicultural Education in a Post-Race Political Age: Our Movement at Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Patricia L.

    2009-01-01

    The 2008 elections ushered in a new era in U.S. politics with implications for race relations and social justice activity. Drawing parallels between the contemporary African American community and splintering undercurrents in the National Association for Multicultural Education (NAME), the author urges cross-generational coalescence around an…

  11. Political Learning by Social Engagement? Chances and Risks for Citizenship Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohnig, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    More and more programs of citizenship education in Germany (and other countries) tend to advance democratic citizenship through social learning in communities. A strong emphasis is put on social engagement to get young people involved in politics as well as to teach them participation. A qualitative analysis of selected German social learning…

  12. Basal metabolic rate and risk-taking behaviour in birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, A P

    2009-12-01

    Basal metabolic rate (BMR) constitutes the minimal metabolic rate in the zone of thermo-neutrality, where heat production is not elevated for temperature regulation. BMR thus constitutes the minimum metabolic rate that is required for maintenance. Interspecific variation in BMR in birds is correlated with food habits, climate, habitat, flight activity, torpor, altitude, and migration, although the selective forces involved in the evolution of these presumed adaptations are not always obvious. I suggest that BMR constitutes the minimum level required for maintenance, and that variation in this minimum level reflects the fitness costs and benefits in terms of ability to respond to selective agents like predators, implying that an elevated level of BMR is a cost of wariness towards predators. This hypothesis predicts a positive relationship between BMR and measures of risk taking such as flight initiation distance (FID) of individuals approached by a potential predator. Consistent with this suggestion, I show in a comparative analysis of 76 bird species that species with higher BMR for their body mass have longer FID when approached by a potential predator. This effect was independent of potentially confounding variables and similarity among species due to common phylogenetic descent. These results imply that BMR is positively related to risk-taking behaviour, and that predation constitutes a neglected factor in the evolution of BMR.

  13. Worst-Case Portfolio Optimization under Stochastic Interest Rate Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Engler

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate a portfolio optimization problem under the threat of a market crash, where the interest rate of the bond is modeled as a Vasicek process, which is correlated with the stock price process. We adopt a non-probabilistic worst-case approach for the height and time of the market crash. On a given time horizon [0; T], we then maximize the investor’s expected utility of terminal wealth in the worst-case crash scenario. Our main result is an explicit characterization of the worst-case optimal portfolio strategy for the class of HARA (hyperbolic absolute risk aversion utility functions.

  14. Competitive effects and instruments of power sector reforms. International reform concepts blockade structures, risk distribution. A political economy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liebchen, Armin

    2014-01-01

    Power sectors with weak or inadequate competition structures are the rule, despite numerous attempts at reform. But can afford modern economies this defect for a long time? Why can the implementation of competition are blocked so effectively? The author studied international reform experiences and opens up interesting insights that can also reflect on problems of the German energy turnaround: The difficulty of timing and coordination of the reform components, the development of resistance levels of individual interest groups, breach of contract as a rational alternative, causes unwanted price effects, shifting interest situations of major stakeholders, change dynamics impending regulatory risks, pending financing risks, stranded cost-conflict situations for power stations disconnected from the grid and facilities and instruments of a political and regulatory risk management for reforms. With numerous examples, background analyzes and instruments to reform analysis, this book is aimed at investors, policy planners and analysts. [de

  15. Risks to health from radiation at low dose rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gentner, N.E.; Osborne, R.V.

    1997-01-01

    Our focus is on whether, using a balance-of-evidence approach, it is possible to say that at a low enough dose, or at a sufficiently low dose rate, radiation risk reduces to zero in a population. We conclude that insufficient evidence exists at present to support such a conclusion. In part this reflects statistical limitations at low doses, and in part (although mechanisms unquestionably exist to protect us against much of the damage induced by ionizing radiation) the biological heterogeneity of human populations, which means these mechanisms do not act in all members of the population at all times. If it is going to be possible to demonstrate that low doses are less dangerous than we presently assume, the evidence, paradoxically, will likely come from studies of higher dose and dose rate scenarios than are encountered occupationally. (author)

  16. Celebrating Risk: The Politics of Self-Branding, Transgression & Resistance in Public Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BLAKE POLAND

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Persons 'branded' as dangerous to the public's health often try to hide their status (as smokers, as HIV positive, etc. Yet, a small but growing subgroup has re-appropriated stigma symbols and voluntarily branded themselves as 'marked' individuals, rebellious, transgressive and refusing to be shamed by their status. In this article we examine voluntary branding as acts of resistance, paying particular attention to bodily practices that disrupt dominant aesthetic and moral/political sensibilities. We draw on our research and observations in the realms of smoking and bareback sex to illustrate and address broader issues of branding the self, aesthetics and the politics of resistance, surveillance, and transgression. Drawing on the work of Goffman, Bourdieu and Foucault, we examine the interpenetration of class, physical and social capital, and unequal social relations. While these works are often used to celebrate resistance, we argue, following Fiske, that it should not be romanticized as inherently liberating.

  17. Modelling Counterparty Credit Risk in Czech Interest Rate Swaps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lenka Křivánková

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the Basel Committee’s estimate, three quarters of counterparty credit risk losses during the financial crisis in 2008 originate from credit valuation adjustment’s losses and not from actual defaults. Therefore, from 2015, the Third Basel Accord (EU, 2013a and (EU, 2013b instructed banks to calculate the capital requirement for the risk of credit valuation adjustment (CVA. Banks are trying to model CVA to hold the prescribed standards and also reach the lowest possible impact on their profit. In this paper, we try to model CVA using methods that are in compliance with the prescribed standards and also achieve the smallest possible impact on the bank’s earnings. To do so, a data set of interest rate swaps from 2015 is used. The interest rate term structure is simulated using the Hull-White one-factor model and Monte Carlo methods. Then, the probability of default for each counterparty is constructed. A safe level of CVA is reached in spite of the calculated the CVA achieving a lower level than CVA previously used by the bank. This allows a reduction of capital requirements for banks.

  18. Hemodialysis catheter-related infection: rates, risk factors and pathogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahli, Farida; Feidjel, Razika; Laalaoui, Rima

    The main complication of central venous catheter (CVC) in hemodialysis is infection. Identifying CVC related infection (CVC-RI) risk factors and causative micro-organisms is important for setting prevention policies. There were no data regarding CVC-RI in hemodialysis in Algeria. To determine rates of CVC-RI in hemodialysis in Setif university hospital, risk factors and causative microorganisms, we conducted a prospective study from November 2014 to May 2015 involving patients with CVC in hemodialysis. Micro-organisms isolated from semi quantitative culture of CVC and blood culture were identified and tested for antibiotic susceptibility using the automated MicroScan system (DADE Behring, Sacramento, CA, USA). Chi-square test was performed to compare demographic and clinical variables (age, sex, comorbidities, duration of CVC, insertion site) in the groups of patients with and without CVC-RI. P<0.05 was considered statistically significant. All analyses were performed using SPSS V17 for Windows statistical package (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). 94 patients and 152 CVC procedures were analyzed. 34 CVC-RI were documented with an incidence of 16.6 per 1000 CVC-days. Incidence of CVC related bloodstream infection (CVC-RBI) was 10.8 per 1000 CVC-days. Independent risk factors associated with CVC-RI were diabetes (P=0.01) and duration of catheterization (P= 0.01). Causative micro-organisms were: Klebsiella pneumoniae 26.5%, coagulase-negative staphylococci 23.5% and Staphylococcus aureus 23.5%. Micro-organisms were multidrug-resistant (MDR). Mortality was statistically associated to inadequate antibiotic therapy. The duration of CVC should be reduced by creation of fistulas. More compliance to hygiene measure is needed for decreasing CVC-RI and resistance rate. Copyright © 2016 King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Interest rate risk measurement in Brazilian sovereign markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caio Ibsen Rodrigues de Almeida

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Fixed income emerging markets are an interesting investment alternative. Measuring market risks is mandatory in order to avoid unexpected huge losses. The most used market risk measure is the Value at Risk, based on the profit-loss probability distribution of the portfolio under consideration. Estimating this probability distribution requires the prior estimation of the probability distribution of term structures of interest rates. An interesting possibility is to estimate term structures using a decomposition of the spread function into a linear combination of Legendre polynomials. Numerical examples from the Brazilian sovereign fixed income international market illustrate the practical use of the methodology.Os mercados emergentes de renda fixa são alternativas interessantes para investimentos. Devido ao elevado nível de incerteza existente em tais mercados, a mensuração dos riscos de mercado de uma carteira de investimentos é fundamental para que se evite um nível elevado de perdas. Uma das medidas de risco de mercado mais utilizadas é o Value at Risk, baseado na distribuição de probabilidades de perdas-ganhos da carteira sob análise. A estimação desta distribuição requer, no entanto, a estimação prévia da distribuição de pro-babilidades das variações da estrutura a termo da taxa de juros. Uma possibilidade interessante para a estimação de tal distribuição é efetuar uma decomposição da função de spread da estrutura a termo em uma combinação linear de Polinômios de Legendre. Exemplos numéricos do mercado internacional de títulos soberanos brasileiros são apresentados para ilustrar o uso prático desta nova metodologia.

  20. Inclusion as political mobilisation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, Anne Mette; Muwanga, Nansozi

    2016-01-01

    Uganda has been successful in broadening access to education. However, this achievement has been undermined by low literacy and numeracy levels and high drop-out rates. A political settlement perspective sheds light on the politics of education reforms. We find that there are weak political drive...

  1. Regulating genetically modified food. Policy trajectories, political culture, and risk perceptions in the U.S., Canada, and EU.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohlers, Anton E

    2010-09-01

    This paper examines whether national differences in political culture add an explanatory dimension to the formulation of policy in the area of biotechnology, especially with respect to genetically modified food. The analysis links the formulation of protective regulatory policies governing genetically modified food to both country and region-specific differences in uncertainty tolerance levels and risk perceptions in the United States, Canada, and European Union. Based on polling data and document analysis, the findings illustrate that these differences matter. Following a mostly opportunistic risk perception within an environment of high tolerance for uncertainty, policymakers in the United States and Canada modified existing regulatory frameworks that govern genetically modified food in their respective countries. In contrast, the mostly cautious perception of new food technologies and low tolerance for uncertainty among European Union member states has contributed to the creation of elaborate and stringent regulatory policies governing genetically modified food.

  2. Shadows on Israeli Gas Success Story: a Political and Geopolitical Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boncourt, Maite de

    2015-12-01

    In Israel, both the regional geopolitical context and domestic politics play an important role in the development of the offshore gas fields. The country has been a forerunner in the discovery of the Eastern Mediterranean basin, thanks to the dedication of the private sector and the support of the State. Today, the entire region is under the spotlights for its energy potential, but the development of the gas resources in Israel still has to deal with internal challenges, related notably to the governance of the sector and the stabilization of the legislative framework to attract investments. (author)

  3. WHY THE SUDDEN CHANGE OF THE POLITICAL REGIME IS DETERMINING RISK IN ECONOMY AND SOCIETY?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Lucian MEHEDINTI

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this article the authors aim to gather an in-depth understanding of the evolution of manking throughout the history and its political regimes, and in the same time are analizing and determining the components of the social function that exercised a great influence on the stability and dynamics of the production and consumption, pointing out that any social organization that wants to remain rational should have as a primary objective the happiness of the people, that so called,“general happiness”, that could only be achieved through education, culture, raising people's moral and intellectual knowledge. Since any political system does not seek the general good, but the one of some persons or a specific group of people, there is only very little communion between them and the people or is entirely missing and for these reasons their reign won’t be long, because the people are always wanting a political change. This "social problem" occurred because of some significant social movements, socialist doctrines whose effects still persist in present times. The efforts of the profound thinkers and mankind throughout the history, with all the positive developments did not materialize in achieving a society in which wealth is equitably distributed, where the contributions of the people in getting them is equally shared that could satisfy the requirements and the needs of the majority members of the society. In all the transformations and society changes or the political regime of the state, the human being represented the base, with its unlimited evolution and thinking, and all of these were achieved in time and were given by a certain social environment. The human being can not be separated from its social environment. He is born to live in the society, but the freedom can not be unlimited of course. The history has shown that all the hasty attempts suffered the same fate and the only sustainable progress made by the people were those who came out

  4. Adolescent suicide in Australia: rates, risk and resilience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, Patricia M

    2013-07-01

    Adolescent suicide rates in Australia have fallen significantly during recent years. The incidence, however, clearly remains a serious concern for young people, parents, professionals and policy makers. Some groups of Australian youth appear to be at heightened risk. Adolescents within the welfare system, indigenous, rural and refugee youth, along with same sex attracted young people often need very careful monitoring and support. Young men continue to take their lives more frequently than young women. Prevention programmes in Australia aim to develop resilience in young people, families and communities that can serve as protection against self harm and suicide. The improvement of mental health literacy, a fostering of adolescent self-efficacy and better access to early intervention strategies are currently privileged in national and state policies related to young people in Australia. More work is needed, however, to achieve a well integrated mental health framework capable of effectively addressing adolescent suicide prevention into the twenty-first century.

  5. Orphans and political instability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breuning, Marijke; Ishiyama, John

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates the security implications of growing orphan populations, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Little has been written about the security implications of this especially vulnerable group of children. Are growing orphan populations associated with increases in political instability as has been suggested? Using data from several sources, we employ regression analysis to test whether Sub-Saharan African countries with larger proportions of orphans and those with increasing orphan populations experience higher rates of political instability. We find that the increase in the orphan population is related to an increasing incidence of civil conflict, but do not find a similar relationship for the proportion of orphans. In addition, we find that the causes of orphanhood matter. We conclude that increases in orphan populations (rather than simple proportions) are destabilizing. We suggest possible avenues for mediating the security risks posed by growing orphan populations.

  6. Alarming of exchange rate crisis: A risk management approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da Zhao

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Recently, with increasing volatility of foreign exchange rate, risk management becomes more and more important not only for multinational companies and individuals but also for central governments. This paper attempts to build an econometrics model so as to forecast and manage risks in foreign exchange market, especially during the eve of turbulent periods. By following McNeil and Frey’s (2000 two stage approach called conditional EVT to estimate dynamic VaR commonly used in stock and insurance markets, we extend it by applying a more general asymmetric ARMA-GARCH model to analyze daily foreign exchange dollar-denominated trading data from four countries of different development levels across Asia and Europe for a period of more than 10 years from January 03, 2005 to May 29, 2015, which is certainly representative of global markets. Conventionally, different kinds of backtesting methods are implemented ultimately to evaluate how well the model behaves. Inspiringly, test results show that by taking several specific characteristics (including fat-tails, asymmetry and long-range dependence of the foreign exchange market return data into consideration, the violation ratio of out-of-sample data can be forecasted very well for both fixed and flexible foreign exchange regimes. Moreover, all of the violations are evenly distributed along the whole period which indicates another favorable property of our model. Meanwhile, we find evidence of asymmetry volatility in all of the studied foreign exchange markets even though the magnitudes of the most of them are weak

  7. Politics and scientific expertise: Scientists, risk perception, and nuclear waste policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barke, R.P.; Jenkins-Smith, H.C.

    1993-01-01

    To study the homogeneity and influences on scientists' perspectives of environmental risks, the authors have examined similarities and differences in risk perceptions, particularly regarding nuclear wastes, and policy preferences among 1011 scientists and engineers. Significant differences (p<0.05) were found in the patterns of beliefs among scientists from different fields of research. In contrast to physicists, chemists, and engineers, life scientists tend to: (a) perceive the greatest risks from nuclear energy and nuclear waste management; (b) perceive higher levels of overall environmental risk; (c) strongly oppose imposing risks on unconsenting individuals; and (d) prefer stronger requirements for environmental management. On some issues related to priorities among public problems and calls for government action, there are significant variations among life scientists or physical scientists. It was also found that-independently of field of research-perceptions of risk and its correlates are significantly associated with the type of institution in which the scientist is employed. Scientists in universities or state and local governments tend to see the risks of nuclear energy and wastes as greater than scientists who work as business consultants, for federal organizations, or for private research laboratories. Significant differences also are found in priority given to environmental risks, the perceived proximity of environmental disaster, willingness to impose risks on an unconsenting population, and the necessity of accepting risks and sacrifices. 33 refs., 3 figs., 9 tabs

  8. Including risk in the balanced scorecard: Adoption rate and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This finding is interesting because it would indicate that the previously reported and conceptualised problem of complexity does not seem to have such a great impact as previously thought. Key words: balanced scorecard, risk management, enterprise risk management, performance management, risk scorecard, risk ...

  9. Politics and Poetics of the Event: from silencing to a risk of voicing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alda Regina Tognini Romaguera

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Our interest is to think of politics and poetics of images and words in writings traversed by the experiences (workshops, soirées, exhibitions... that have taken place in the extension and outreach project Reading and Creation Workshops with Words and Images developed by Fabulografias - ALB Center for Reading, throughout the years 2013 and 2014. How to extract the significance from words and photographs and make them vibrate, make them multiple? Launch the event in gatherings, thoughts and poetics and photographic compositions. One of the challenges of a plane of collective experimentation around the minority becoming, winds that blow in the meetings of the Collective Group Fabulografias. Among other things: doing away with the discursive orders and making life resonate from within a tense silence that drifts nearby. Compose an education that differs, blowing from within the potencies of art and the philosophy of Gilles Deleuze.

  10. Should I be worried? Citizens’ experiences and the risk politics of cell site deployment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Graaff, M.B.

    2016-01-01

    How do we deal with the risks of new technology? This research takes the mobile phone cell sites as case. The exponential growth of the wireless telecommunications network, materialized in the construction of cell sites, is raising concerns about its health risks for decades. Where do citizens’

  11. Politics without Politics

    OpenAIRE

    Dean, Jodi

    2009-01-01

    textabstractProf.dr. Jodi Dean, hoogleraar politieke filosofie aan Hobart and William Smith Colleges (Geneva, New York), sprak donderdag 19 februari 2009 haar inaugurele rede uit, getiteld "Politics without politics". Dean is dit jaar Erasmus Professor op de Erasmus Chair of Humanities in de Faculteit der Wijsbegeerte. De Erasmus Wisselleerstoel is ingesteld door de G. Ph. Verhagen Stichting. V In haar oratie gaat Dean in op het thema democratie in relatie tot linkse politiek. Enkele politiek...

  12. Gambling disorder: estimated prevalence rates and risk factors in Macao.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Anise M S; Lai, Mark H C; Tong, Kwok-Kit

    2014-12-01

    An excessive, problematic gambling pattern has been regarded as a mental disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM) for more than 3 decades (American Psychiatric Association [APA], 1980). In this study, its latest prevalence in Macao (one of very few cities with legalized gambling in China and the Far East) was estimated with 2 major changes in the diagnostic criteria, suggested by the 5th edition of DSM (APA, 2013): (a) removing the "Illegal Act" criterion, and (b) lowering the threshold for diagnosis. A random, representative sample of 1,018 Macao residents was surveyed with a phone poll design in January 2013. After the 2 changes were adopted, the present study showed that the estimated prevalence rate of gambling disorder was 2.1% of the Macao adult population. Moreover, the present findings also provided empirical support to the application of these 2 recommended changes when assessing symptoms of gambling disorder among Chinese community adults. Personal risk factors of gambling disorder, namely being male, having low education, a preference for casino gambling, as well as high materialism, were identified.

  13. Improved risk adjustment for comparison of surgical site infection rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geubbels, Eveline L. P. E.; Grobbee, Diederick E.; Vandenbroucke-Grauls, Christina M. J. E.; Wille, Jan C.; de Boer, Annette S.

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To develop prognostic models for improved risk adjustment in surgical site infection surveillance for 5 surgical procedures and to compare these models with the National Nosocomial Infection Surveillance system (NNIS) risk index. DESIGN: In a multicenter cohort study, prospective

  14. 12 CFR 615.5180 - Interest rate risk management by banks-general.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ....5180 Interest rate risk management by banks—general. The board of directors of each Farm Credit Bank, bank for cooperatives, and agricultural credit bank shall develop and implement an interest rate risk... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate risk management by banks-general...

  15. ‘Only a pawn in their game’: crime, risk and politics in the case of Robert Fardon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russell Hogg

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In 2003 Robert Fardon was the first prisoner to be detained under the Dangerous Prisoners (Sexual Offenders Act 2003 (Qld, the first of the new generation preventive detention laws enacted in Australia and directed at keeping sex offenders in prison or under supervision beyond the expiry of their sentences where a court decides, on the basis of psychiatric assessments, that unconditional release would create an unacceptable risk to the community. A careful examination of Fardon’s case shows the extent to which the administration of the regime was from the outset governed by politics and political calculation rather than the logic of risk management and community protection. In 2003 Robert Fardon was the first person detained under the Dangerous Prisoners (Sexual Offenders Act 2003 (Qld (hereafter DPSOA, a newly enacted Queensland law aimed at the preventive detention of sex offenders. It was the first of a new generation of such laws introduced in Australia, now also in force in NSW, Western Australia and Victoria. The laws have been widely criticized by lawyers, academics and others (Keyzer and McSherry 2009; Edgely 2007. In this article I want to focus on the details of how the Queensland law was administered in Fardon’s case, he being perhaps the most well-known prisoner detained under such laws and certainly the longest held. It will show, I hope, that seemingly abstract rule of law principles invoked by other critics are not simply abstract: they afford a crucial practical safeguard against the corruption of criminal justice in which the ends both of community protection and of justice give way to opportunistic exploitation of ‘the mythic resonance of crime and punishment for electoral purposes’ (Scheingold 1998: 888.

  16. The Debate on the Risk of Genetically Modified Food: The Politics of Science

    OpenAIRE

    Gaivoronskaia, Galina; Solem, Knut Erik

    2000-01-01

    Scientific research on the use of genetic engineering in the production of new food is facing a difficult situation. Further development in this field is being impacted more and more by the debate on the risk of GM food, where consumers’ tools and the ability to influence decision-making are being enhanced. In Norway regulatory mechanisms have been introduced to address a wide range of GM-food risks, but at the same time have created certain obstacles for scientists and industry. Not yet usin...

  17. How Climate Change became a Business Risk: Analyzing Non-State Agency in Global Climate Politics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pattberg, P.H.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is widely acknowledged as a key business risk. Companies around the globe are taking action to mitigate their carbon emissions, develop climate-friendly products and services, and prepare for the negative impacts of climate change for their operations. Financial investors, on their

  18. Politics of risk-taking: Welfare state reform in advanced democracies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vis, B.

    2010-01-01

    How much and in which direction have the welfare states among the Western democracies changed over the past decades? Moreover, under which conditions have governments enacted these changes? Based on insights from prospect theory, a psychological theory of choice under risk, Vis demonstrates ably

  19. Problem-Based Teaching in International Management: A Political/Economic Risk Assessment Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Paula S.; White, Marion M.; Zisk, Daniel S.; Cavazos, David E.

    2013-01-01

    This article draws from the current literature to examine problem-based learning (PBL) as a management education tool, and provides an example of how to incorporate PBL into an undergraduate international management course. Also included are an explanation of, and specific guidelines for, a PBL exercise focused on the analysis of "country risk"…

  20. Mango Street and Malnourished Readers: Politics and Realities in an "At-Risk" Middle School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, M. Alayne

    2007-01-01

    This article presents results of a literature-response study conducted with at-risk middle school students of Latino, African American, and Caucasian backgrounds. The study was guided by an assumption of students' ability to read and coherently assimilate elements of "The House on Mango Street," by Sandra Cisneros (1984). Although centered in…

  1. Risk, risk conflicts, sub-politics and social and environmental accounting and accountability in Scottish salmon farming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Georgakopoulos, G.; Thomson, I.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose To offer a theoretical analysis, inspired by contemporary research into risk, of the social and environmental accounting processes observed in an empirical study on Scottish salmon farming. Methodology / Approach This paper used a Grounded Theory approach. Empirical evidence was collected on

  2. How and why do small firms manage interest rate risk? Evidence from commercial loans

    OpenAIRE

    James Vickery

    2005-01-01

    Although small firms are most sensitive to interest rate and other shocks, empirical work on corporate risk management has focused instead on large public companies. This paper studies fixed-rate and adjustable-rate loans to see how small firms manage their exposure to interest rate risk. The cross-sectional findings are as follows: credit-constrained firms consistently favor fixed-rate loans, minimizing their exposure to rising interest rates; firms adjust their exposure depending on how int...

  3. Seismic Politics: Risk and Reconstruction after the 1960 Earthquake in Agadir, Morocco.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williford, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    On 29 February 1960, an earthquake struck the city of Agadir, Morocco, killing between ten and fifteen thousand Moroccans and Europeans and damaging the majority of the city's structures. Drawing on data from seismographs, witness accounts, and direct observations of destruction, international teams of experts working in the aftermath of the disaster rewrote Agadir as a seismically vulnerable space. In the process, they depoliticized destruction and assigned responsibility for the devastation of the city's poorest neighborhoods to "natural" forces and ineffective "traditional" building practices. Once established in the work of geologists, seismologists, and engineers, the notion of seismic risk shaped the material and moral trajectories of reconstruction during the first decade of Morocco's independence from France. As it cut across scientific, engineering, and bureaucratic domains, seismic risk gave rise to projects aimed less at controlling nature than at redistributing vulnerability and authority among experts, administrators, and inhabitants in Agadir.

  4. The double burden of neoliberalism? Noncommunicable disease policies and the global political economy of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasgow, Sara; Schrecker, Ted

    2015-07-01

    The growing prevalence of NCDs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is now recognized as one of the major global health policy issues of the early 21st century. Current official approaches reflect ambivalence about how health policy should approach the social determinants of health identified by the WHO Commission on the topic that released its report in 2008, and in particular the role of macro-scale economic and social processes. Authoritative framing of options for NCD prevention in advance of the September, 2011 UN high-level meeting on NCDs arguably relied on a selective reading of the scientific (including social scientific) evidence, and foregrounded a limited number of risk factors defined in terms of individual behavior: tobacco use, unhealthy diet, alcohol (ab)use and physical inactivity. The effect was to reproduce at a transnational level the individualization of responsibility for health that characterizes most health promotion initiatives in high-income countries, ignoring both the limited control that many people have over their exposure to these risk factors and the contribution of macro-scale processes like trade liberalization and the marketing activities of transnational corporations to the global burden of NCDs. An alternative perspective focuses on "the inequitable distribution of power, money, and resources" described by the WHO Commission, and the ways in which policies that address those inequities can avoid unintentional incorporation of neoliberal constructions of risk and responsibility. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. The double burden of neoliberalism? Noncommunicable disease policies and the global political economy of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasgow, Sara; Schrecker, Ted

    2016-05-01

    The growing prevalence of NCDs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is now recognized as one of the major global health policy issues of the early 21st century. Current official approaches reflect ambivalence about how health policy should approach the social determinants of health identified by the WHO Commission on the topic that released its report in 2008, and in particular the role of macro-scale economic and social processes. Authoritative framing of options for NCD prevention in advance of the September, 2011 UN high-level meeting on NCDs arguably relied on a selective reading of the scientific (including social scientific) evidence, and foregrounded a limited number of risk factors defined in terms of individual behavior: tobacco use, unhealthy diet, alcohol (ab)use and physical inactivity. The effect was to reproduce at a transnational level the individualization of responsibility for health that characterizes most health promotion initiatives in high-income countries, ignoring both the limited control that many people have over their exposure to these risk factors and the contribution of macro-scale processes like trade liberalization and the marketing activities of transnational corporations to the global burden of NCDs. An alternative perspective focuses on "the inequitable distribution of power, money, and resources" described by the WHO Commission, and the ways in which policies that address those inequities can avoid unintentional incorporation of neoliberal constructions of risk and responsibility. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  6. The Occupy Central (Umbrella) movement and mental health distress in the Hong Kong general public: political movements and concerns as potential structural risk factors of population mental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Joseph T F; Kim, Yoona; Wu, Anise M S; Wang, Zixin; Huang, Bishan; Mo, Phoenix K H

    2017-05-01

    Political tension, as expressed by mass movements such as the Occupy Central movement (2014) in Hong Kong, is a potential but understudied structural factor of population mental health. A random population-based telephone survey anonymously interviewed 344 Hong Kong Chinese adults aged 18-65 years during the 2 weeks since the termination date of the 2-month-long Occupy Central movement (15/12/2014). Linear regression models were fit using mental distress (depression, anxiety and negative mood) and self-perceived changes in mood/sleeping quality as dependent variables. Prevalence of participation in the movement was 10.5% (self), 17.7% (family members/relatives), and 34.0% (peers); 8.5% had participated for ≥2 days. Young age, but not participation, was associated with mental distress. In adjusted analysis, three types of responses to the movement (worry about safety, negative emotional responses to media reports, and conflicts with peers about the movement) and emotional responses to local political situations were significantly associated with all/some of the dependent variables related to mental distress. The variable on emotions toward local political situations was correlated with the three responses to the movement; it fully mediated the associations between such responses and mental distress. Many citizens participated in the movement, which was led by youths and might have increased the general public's mental distress. Negative personal responses to the movement and emotions toward political situations were potential risk factors. As the political tension would last and political pessimism is globally found, politics may have become a regular and persistent structural risk factor negatively affecting population mental health.

  7. Panama disease in banana and neoliberal governance: towards a political ecology of risk

    OpenAIRE

    Cruz, de la, Jaye

    2017-01-01

    The emergence of Panama disease Tropical Race 4 (Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. cubense) or TR4 – a fungal disease in banana that is considered by horticulture experts as not only one of the most destructive diseases in the world (Ploetz 1994) but one with no on-hand socio-cultural or chemical method to control it satisfactorily (Ploetz 2015) – has generated conversations, dialogue, inquiry and at times controversy, on how this risk is to be managed. The onslaught of Tropical Race 1 (TR1) in the 19...

  8. 12 CFR 652.15 - Interest rate risk management and requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORPORATION FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS Investment Management § 652.15 Interest rate risk... interest rate risk management policy must, at a minimum: (1) Address the purpose and objectives of interest... desired risk management objectives; (5) Document the objectives that Farmer Mac is attempting to achieve...

  9. 77 FR 5416 - Financial Derivatives Transactions To Offset Interest Rate Risk; Investment and Deposit Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-03

    ... counterparty risk besides posting collateral? Are there additional or alternate collateralization conditions... Interest Rate Risk; Investment and Deposit Activities AGENCY: National Credit Union Administration. ACTION... rate risk (IRR).\\1\\ This ANPR follows an earlier Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPR I) on...

  10. 13 CFR 120.1060 - Confidentiality of Reports, Risk Ratings and related Confidential Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1060... Lender, Intermediary, or NTAP for its confidential use only. The Reports, Risk Ratings, and related... written permission. An SBA Lender, Intermediary, and NTAP may use the Report, Risk Rating, and...

  11. Modelling second malignancy risks from low dose rate and high dose rate brachytherapy as monotherapy for localised prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Louise; Mason, Joshua; Henry, Ann M; Hoskin, Peter; Siebert, Frank-Andre; Venselaar, Jack; Bownes, Peter

    2016-08-01

    To estimate the risks of radiation-induced rectal and bladder cancers following low dose rate (LDR) and high dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy as monotherapy for localised prostate cancer and compare to external beam radiotherapy techniques. LDR and HDR brachytherapy monotherapy plans were generated for three prostate CT datasets. Second cancer risks were assessed using Schneider's concept of organ equivalent dose. LDR risks were assessed according to a mechanistic model and a bell-shaped model. HDR risks were assessed according to a bell-shaped model. Relative risks and excess absolute risks were estimated and compared to external beam techniques. Excess absolute risks of second rectal or bladder cancer were low for both LDR (irrespective of the model used for calculation) and HDR techniques. Average excess absolute risks of rectal cancer for LDR brachytherapy according to the mechanistic model were 0.71 per 10,000 person-years (PY) and 0.84 per 10,000 PY respectively, and according to the bell-shaped model, were 0.47 and 0.78 per 10,000 PY respectively. For HDR, the average excess absolute risks for second rectal and bladder cancers were 0.74 and 1.62 per 10,000 PY respectively. The absolute differences between techniques were very low and clinically irrelevant. Compared to external beam prostate radiotherapy techniques, LDR and HDR brachytherapy resulted in the lowest risks of second rectal and bladder cancer. This study shows both LDR and HDR brachytherapy monotherapy result in low estimated risks of radiation-induced rectal and bladder cancer. LDR resulted in lower bladder cancer risks than HDR, and lower or similar risks of rectal cancer. In absolute terms these differences between techniques were very small. Compared to external beam techniques, second rectal and bladder cancer risks were lowest for brachytherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Political, social and technical risks in the last stages of disease eradication campaigns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitty, Christopher J M

    2015-09-01

    Eradication of a disease is one of the greatest gifts any generation can give to subsequent ones, but most attempts have failed. The biggest challenges occur in the final stages of eradication and elimination campaigns. These include falling public support as a disease becomes less common; the emergence of groups who do not support eradication; spiralling costs; and the evolution of drug, vaccine or insecticide resistance. Mass campaigns become less effective as the disease fragments and modelling becomes less reliable. Optimism bias is the biggest risk to any eradication campaign and the long endgame must be planned for from the beginning. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Agreement in cardiovascular risk rating based on anthropometric parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dantas, Endilly Maria da Silva; Pinto, Cristiane Jordânia; Freitas, Rodrigo Pegado de Abreu; Medeiros, Anna Cecília Queiroz de

    2015-01-01

    To investigate the agreement in evaluation of risk of developing cardiovascular diseases based on anthropometric parameters in young adults. The study included 406 students, measuring weight, height, and waist and neck circumferences. Waist-to-height ratio and the conicity index. The kappa coefficient was used to assess agreement in risk classification for cardiovascular diseases. The positive and negative specific agreement values were calculated as well. The Pearson chi-square (χ 2 ) test was used to assess associations between categorical variables (p<0.05). The majority of the parameters assessed (44%) showed slight (k=0.21 to 0.40) and/or poor agreement (k<0.20), with low values of negative specific agreement. The best agreement was observed between waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio both for the general population (k=0.88) and between sexes (k=0.93 to 0.86). There was a significant association (p<0.001) between the risk of cardiovascular diseases and females when using waist circumference and conicity index, and with males when using neck circumference. This resulted in a wide variation in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk (5.5%-36.5%), depending on the parameter and the sex that was assessed. The results indicate variability in agreement in assessing risk for cardiovascular diseases, based on anthropometric parameters, and which also seems to be influenced by sex. Further studies in the Brazilian population are required to better understand this issue

  14. 76 FR 23646 - Financial Management Policies-Interest Rate Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-27

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Office of Thrift Supervision Financial Management Policies--Interest... invite comments on the following information collection. Title of Proposal: Financial Management Policies... risk procedures, 12 CFR 563.176. The purpose of the regulation is to ensure that institutions are...

  15. Learning rate and temperament in a high predation risk environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DePasquale, C; Wagner, T; Archard, G A; Ferguson, B; Braithwaite, V A

    2014-11-01

    Living in challenging environments can influence the behavior of animals in a number of ways. For instance, populations of prey fish that experience frequent, nonlethal interactions with predators have a high proportion of individuals that express greater reaction to risk and increased activity and exploration-collectively known as temperament traits. Temperament traits are often correlated, such that individuals that are risk-prone also tend to be active and explore more. Spatial learning, which requires the integration of many sensory cues, has also been shown to vary in fish exposed to different levels of predation threat. Fish from areas of low predation risk learn to solve spatial tasks faster than fish from high predation areas. However, it is not yet known whether simpler forms of learning, such as learning associations between two events, are similarly influenced. Simple forms of associative learning are likely to be affected by temperament because a willingness to approach and explore novel situations could provide animals with a learning advantage. However, it is possible that routine-forming and inflexible traits associated with risk-prone and increased exploratory behavior may act in the opposite way and make risk-prone individuals poorer at learning associations. To investigate this, we measured temperament in Panamanian bishop fish (Brachyrhaphis episcopi) sampled from a site known to contain many predators. The B. episcopi were then tested with an associative learning task. Within this population, fish that explored more were faster at learning a cue that predicted access to food, indicating a link between temperament and basic learning abilities.

  16. Learning rate and temperament in a high predation risk environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    DePasquale, C.; Wagner, Tyler; Archard, G.A.; Ferguson, B.; Braithwaite, V.A.

    2014-01-01

    Living in challenging environments can influence the behavior of animals in a number of ways. For instance, populations of prey fish that experience frequent, nonlethal interactions with predators have a high proportion of individuals that express greater reaction to risk and increased activity and exploration—collectively known as temperament traits. Temperament traits are often correlated, such that individuals that are risk-prone also tend to be active and explore more. Spatial learning, which requires the integration of many sensory cues, has also been shown to vary in fish exposed to different levels of predation threat. Fish from areas of low predation risk learn to solve spatial tasks faster than fish from high predation areas. However, it is not yet known whether simpler forms of learning, such as learning associations between two events, are similarly influenced. Simple forms of associative learning are likely to be affected by temperament because a willingness to approach and explore novel situations could provide animals with a learning advantage. However, it is possible that routine-forming and inflexible traits associated with risk-prone and increased exploratory behavior may act in the opposite way and make risk-prone individuals poorer at learning associations. To investigate this, we measured temperament in Panamanian bishop fish (Brachyrhaphis episcopi) sampled from a site known to contain many predators. The B. episcopi were then tested with an associative learning task. Within this population, fish that explored more were faster at learning a cue that predicted access to food, indicating a link between temperament and basic learning abilities.

  17. Bank Credit Risk Management and Rating Migration Analysis on the Business Cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitris Gavalas

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Credit risk measurement remains a critical field of top priority in banking finance, directly implicated in the recent global financial crisis. This paper examines the dynamic linkages between credit risk migration due to rating shifts and prevailing macroeconomic conditions, reflected in alternative business cycle states. An innovative empirical methodology applies to bank internal rating data, under different economic scenarios and investigates the implications of credit risk quality shifts for risk rating transition matrices. The empirical findings are useful and critical for banks to align to Basel guidelines in relation to core capital requirements and risk-weighted assets in the underlying loan portfolio.

  18. How to Design Rating Schemes of Risk Matrices: A Sequential Updating Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jianping; Bao, Chunbing; Wu, Dengsheng

    2018-01-01

    Risk matrices have been widely used as a risk evaluation tool in many fields due to their simplicity and intuitive nature. Designing a rating scheme, i.e., determining the number of ratings used in a risk matrix and assigning different ratings to different cells, is an essential part of risk matrix construction. However, most of the related literature has focused on applying a risk matrix to various fields, instead of researching how to design risk matrices. Based on the analysis of several current rules, we propose a new approach, namely, the sequential updating approach (SUA), to design the rating scheme of a risk matrix in a reliable way. In this article, we propose three principles and a rating algorithm based on these principles. The three principles, namely, adjusted weak consistency, consistent internality, and continuous screening, characterize a good rating scheme. The resulting rating scheme has been proven to be unique. A global rating algorithm is then proposed to create the design that satisfies the three principles. We then explore the performance of the SUA. An illustrative application is first given to explain the feasibility of our approach. The sensitivity analysis shows that our method captures a resolution-reliability tradeoff for decisionmakers in choosing an appropriate rating scheme for a risk matrix. Finally, we compare the designs based on the SUA and Cox's axioms, highlighting the advantages of the SUA. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Speech Rate In Phonetic -Phonological Anal Ysis of Public Speech (Using the Example of Political and Media Speech

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tivadar Hotimir

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The speech rate is comparatively ignored in linguistic and phonetic research and monographs. Most often it is discussed from the viewpoint of feeling, linguistic sense (a slow, fast, or suitable speech rate and mainly in connection with rhythm, which includes volume and stress. The speech rate depends on the topic and purpose of communication, as well as the personal (and colloquial attributes of the speaker. With the development of electronic media and the technical revolution, the speech rate is becoming more and more important, especially due to the significance of speed and the rapid life tempo. On television, seconds are worth thousands or even millions of dollars/Euros, which makes the speech rate and the passing of information all the more important. Nevertheless, the speech rate must be appropriate to the language and the topic so that listeners and viewers can understand the message. Values that will be presented in this article are an important point of reference for Slovenian and other languages. The rate of Slovenian speech in regards to measurements is mostly 4.5 - 6.5 syllables per second, deviations are, of course, also possible.

  20. 77 FR 5155 - Interest Rate Risk Policy and Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-02

    ... of a credit union's assets and liabilities because the present value of future cash flows and, in some cases, the cash flows themselves may change when interest rates change. IRR takes several forms... union's assets and liabilities, because the present value of future cash flows and, in some cases, the...

  1. Surgical Site Infection Rate and Risk Factors among Obstetric Cases ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    BACKGROUND: Surgical Site infections are the second most frequently reported infections of all nosocomial infections among hospital patients. Among surgical patients in obstetrics, Surgical Site Infections were the most common nosocomial infections and the rate is higher in sub-Saharan Africa. There has not been a ...

  2. Medicine and ionizing rays: a help sheet in analysing risks in high rate curietherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauron, C.

    2009-01-01

    This document proposes a synthesis of useful knowledge for radioprotection in the case of high rate curietherapy. Several aspects are considered: the concerned personnel, the course of treatment procedures, the hazards, the identification of the risk associated with ionizing radiation, the risk assessment and the determination of exposure levels, the strategy to control the risks (reduction of risks, technical measures concerning the installation or the personnel, teaching and information, prevention and medical monitoring), and risk control assessment

  3. Medicine and ionizing rays: a help sheet in analysing risks in pulsed rate curietherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauron, C.

    2009-01-01

    This document proposes a synthesis of useful knowledge for radioprotection in the case of pulsed rate curietherapy. Several aspects are considered: the concerned personnel, the course of treatment procedures, the hazards, the identification of the risk associated with ionizing radiation, the risk assessment and the determination of exposure levels, the strategy to control the risks (reduction of risks, technical measures concerning the installation or the personnel, teaching and information, prevention and medical monitoring), and risk control assessment

  4. Vaccination rates among the general adult population and high-risk groups in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathy Annunziata

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In order to adequately assess the effectiveness of vaccination in helping to control vaccine-preventable infectious disease, it is important to identify the adherence and uptake of risk-based recommendations. METHODS: The current project includes data from five consecutive datasets of the National Health and Wellness Survey (NHWS: 2007 through 2011. The NHWS is an annual, Internet-based health questionnaire, administered to a nationwide sample of adults (aged 18 or older which included items on vaccination history as well as high-risk group status. Vaccination rates and characteristics of vaccinees were reported descriptively. Logistic regressions were conducted to predict vaccination behavior from sociodemographics and risk-related variables. RESULTS: The influenza vaccination rate for all adults 18 years and older has increased significantly from 28.0% to 36.2% from 2007 to 2011 (ps<.05. Compared with those not at high risk (25.1%, all high-risk groups were vaccinated at a higher rate, from 36.8% (pregnant women to 69.7% (those with renal/kidney disease; however, considerable variability among high-risk groups was observed. Vaccination rates among high-risk groups for other vaccines varied considerably though all were below 50%, with the exception of immunocompromised respondents (57.5% for the hepatitis B vaccine and 52.5% for the pneumococcal vaccine and the elderly (50.4% for the pneumococcal. Multiple risk factors were associated with increased rate of vaccination for most vaccines. Significant racial/ethnic differences with influenza, hepatitis, and herpes zoster vaccination rates were also observed (ps<.05. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of influenza vaccination have increased over time. Rates varied by high-risk status, demographics, and vaccine. There was a pattern of modest vaccination rate increases for individuals with multiple risk factors. However, there were relatively low rates of vaccination for most risk-based recommendations

  5. Study the rate of fertility and risk factors of schizophrenia in Najaf, Iraq

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study is designed to investigate the main risk factors, which increased the incidence of schizophrenia and the rate of fertility in patients measuring sex hormones (testosterone and estrogen) and prolactin hormone. The aim of study was to evaluate the fertility rate and risk factors of schizophrenia. Blood samples were ...

  6. The association between social networks and self-rated risk of HIV ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... but not the presence or type of social capital. The study found no association between bonding and bridging social networks on self-rated risk of HIV among study participants. However, sexually experienced participants rated themselves at low risk of HIV infection despite practicing unsafe sex. Efforts to raise adolescents' ...

  7. 12 CFR 615.5181 - Bank interest rate risk management program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ....5181 Bank interest rate risk management program. (a) The board of directors of each Farm Credit Bank... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Bank interest rate risk management program. 615.5181 Section 615.5181 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FUNDING AND...

  8. 12 CFR 563.176 - Interest-rate-risk-management procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest-rate-risk-management procedures. 563.176 Section 563.176 Banks and Banking OFFICE OF THRIFT SUPERVISION, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY SAVINGS ASSOCIATIONS-OPERATIONS Financial Management Policies § 563.176 Interest-rate-risk-management procedures...

  9. Political innovations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Eva

    2017-01-01

    are mainly interested in assessing and promoting innovations in public service delivery, but have paid little or no attention to the need for innovations in polity, politics and policy. This article develops a research agenda for studying innovations in political institutions, in the political process...... and in policy outputs. It proposes a number of research themes related to political innovations that call for scholarly attention, and identifies push and pull factors influencing the likelihood that these themes will be addressed in future research....

  10. Office Politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storm, Paula; Kelly, Robert; deVries, Susann

    2008-01-01

    People and organizations are inherently political. Library workplace environments have zones of tension and dynamics just like any corporation, often leading to the formation of political camps. These different cliques influence productivity and work-related issues and, at worst, give meetings the feel of the Camp David negotiations. Politics are…

  11. Moral politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rapp, Carolin; Traunmüller, Richard; Freitag, Markus

    2014-01-01

    This article combines the research strands of moral politics and political behavior by focusing on the effect of individual and contextual religiosity on individual vote decisions in popular initiatives and public referenda concerning morally charged issues. We rely on a total of 13 surveys with 1...... American research on moral politics, direct democracies, and the public role of religion....

  12. The Effects of news media on leisure tourists' perception of risk and willingness to travel, with specific reference to events of terrorism and political instability.

    OpenAIRE

    Kapuscinski, Grzegorz

    2014-01-01

    The perceptions people hold of destinations are of critical importance in the world of tourism as they influence individuals’ travel choices. In this sense, tourists’ negative awareness concerning safety and security present at a destination can prove disastrous for its ability to attract visitors (George, 2003; Reisinger and Mavondo, 2005). Among a multitude of factors which may amplify tourists perceived risk associated with consuming tourism products, man-made disasters of political instab...

  13. Low Savings Rates in the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas: The Role of the Political Instability-Income Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abu Nurudeen

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper employs PCSE, OLS and TSLS with random effects to investigate the impact of the political instabilityincome interaction on savings in ECOWAS countries during the period 1996-2012. The empirical evidence illustrates that higher political stability is associated with higher savings and income levels moderate the adverse effect of political instability on savings, indicating that the impact of political instability on savings is higher in low income ECOWAS countries, but lesser at higher levels of income. The paper recommends the promotion of political stability via increases in incomes to raise savings in the ECOWAS region.

  14. Transitional rates, risk and the Ontario wholesale power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rothman, M.

    2001-01-01

    Navigant Consulting is a large investor-owned management consulting firm specializing in energy-based and other networked and regulated industries across Canada. The company works with clients to create delivery and protect shareholder value in the face of uncertainty and change. This presentation discussed the issue of price volatility in competitive electricity markets. The points to keep in mind for pricing in competitive power markets is that: (1) electricity should be generated simultaneously with use, (2) rates in administered markets are average over some time period, (3) competitive pool markets do not average costs, (4) in competitive pool markets, prices are set in very short (hourly or less) intervals, (5) prices in competitive markets are more volatile than in administered markets for both economic and market structure reasons, and (6) the degree of volatility and price levels can change quickly. The Ontario power market was also discussed with reference to price volatility in Ontario and what this means for electricity customers. tabs., figs

  15. Space, politics, and the political

    OpenAIRE

    dikec, mustafa

    1987-01-01

    International audience; Introduction Geography and politics'', Gottmann wrote in 1980, ``have long been in search of each other'' (page 11). Debates in the literature suggest not only that they have found each other, but also that the encounter has instigated, notably in the last decade or so, a body of literature seeking to think space politically, and to think politics spatially. This is not to suggest that previous work on space was apolitical, nor to suggest that previous work on politics...

  16. Suicide and schizophrenia: a systematic review of rates and risk factors

    OpenAIRE

    Hor, Kahyee; Taylor, Mark

    2010-01-01

    Risk assessment is a core skill in psychiatry. Risk prediction for suicide in schizophrenia is known to be complex. We undertook a systematic review of all original studies concerning suicide in schizophrenia published since 2004. We found 51 data-containing studies (from 1281 studies screened) that met our inclusion criteria, and ranked these by standardized quality criteria. Estimates of rates of suicide and risk factors associated with later suicide were identified, and the risk factors we...

  17. 'When you use the term 'long term', how long is that term'. Risk, Exclusion, and the Politics of Knowledge Production in Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste Management Policy Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stanley, Anna

    2006-01-01

    Risk operates within Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste (NFW) management policy making as a heuristic for knowledge production about its effects which reconciles the knowledge of the nuclear industry with the outcomes of the NFW management process. In so doing it marginalizes the present and historical experiences of Aboriginal peoples with the nuclear industry, and removes from view the ways in which they have been implicated in the geography and political economy of the nuclear industry. Risk is a discursive form that protects a particular group's claims about the effects of NFW by providing it a universalizing epistemological structure with which to obscure its connection to context. Further risk discourse provides the nuclear industry with a conceptual vocabulary that deliberately casts all competing knowledge as perceptions, values, or as an object of inquiry. The arguments of Aboriginal peoples about the residual effects of radiation in their lands which hosted nuclear activities, such as uranium mining and disposal, have no representation in how the discourse of risk defines and represents knowledge, and thus no purchase in the policy debate. As a result the challenge they present to the nuclear industry's claims are contained. The arrangements which permit the unloading of the negative effects of nuclear power generation onto Aboriginal peoples are thus reproduced (both materially and conceptually), but not shown, by the policy making process and likely, its outcome. In order to raise critical questions about the democratic abilities of risk, this paper has examined the role of 'risk' in Canadian NFW policy making. I have shown how when the politics of knowledge production within the philosophy of risk is analyzed, and the use and role of the notion of risk are interrogated, difficult questions are posed for the democratic potential of risk. I have suggested, through an analysis of the NWMO's representations of Aboriginal content in their process, that in this

  18. Performing Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Troy R. E. Paddock

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Walter Benjamin’s observation that fascism turns politics into aesthetics is, by now, a well-worn idea. This article argues that Benjamin’s critique of politics can apply just as much to the modern democratic politics of the United States. Borrowing from Benjamin, Jürgen Habermas, and Carl Schmitt, this article suggests that modern political discourse in the United States does not follow the classical liberal ideal of rational discourse in the marketplace of ideas within the public sphere. Instead, contemporary politics has become spectacle where images and slogans replace thought and debate in a 24/7 news cycle and political infotainment programs. The result is that progressives and conservatives have their own political “ecospheres” which enable them to have their own perspective reinforced, and debate is replaced by straw man arguments and personal attacks.

  19. Teaching Politically without Political Correctness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graff, Gerald

    2000-01-01

    Discusses how to bring political issues into the classroom, highlighting the influence of local context and noting conservative and liberal criticisms of political correctness. Suggests the need for a different idea of how to teach politically from the advocacy pedagogy advanced by recent critical educators, explaining that bringing students into…

  20. Cash Flow and Discount Rate Risk in Up and Down Markets: What is actually priced?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botshekan, M.; Kraeussl, R.G.W.; Lucas, A.

    2012-01-01

    We test whether asymmetric preferences for losses versus gains affect the prices of cash flow versus discount rate risk. We construct a return decomposition distinguishing cash flow and discount rate betas in up and down markets. Using U.S. data, we find that downside cash flow and discount rate

  1. Political elite of modern Russia: crisis of formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michail A. Burda

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Author analyzes the practice of functioning of political elite of modern Russia, the phenomenon of high rating of one of its actors and the crisis of alternative political leaders. The article pays special attention to the existing, in accordance with the Constitution of the Russian Federation, the breadth of presidential powers. Separately discusses the features of current and in General closed for the controlled companies to the private process of formation of the Russian political elite. According to the author, this process takes the form of selection of candidates by a narrow circle of senior officials for subjective reasons, in connection with which the political elite even more segregated from the controlled companies and rising to a new, unattainable level of elitism. Referring to the existing practice of the presidential elections in Russia in the early 90-ies of XX century to the present focuses on the stagnation of the political opposition, lack of political competition among major political parties and their low electoral support in view of the existing political absenteeism. In the article the author considers the historical context of the formation of elite groups and privileged minorities, and draws attention to features of "technocratic parliamentarism", which is inherent in States with a parliamentary form of government and does not implement at present in Russia, with its prevailing system of governance by public authorities. In conclusion, the special attention of author is turned on the existing in society political absenteeism, latent protest potential and, as a consequence, the request for the renewal of political elites, particularly in the framework of the upcoming presidential elections of the Russian Federation in 2018, the participation of new candidates. According to the author of the inventory of such social demand companies will allow to stop the risks enhance the destructive part of economic and regional political

  2. The Exposure of Mortgage Borrowers to Interest Rate Risk, Income Risk and House Price Risk – Evidence from Swiss Loan Application Data

    OpenAIRE

    Guin, Benjamin; Brown, Martin

    2015-01-01

    We study the exposure of mortgage borrowers in Switzerland to interest rate, income and house price risks and examine how the households’ choice of risky mortgages is related to individual interest rate expectations and risk-aversion. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of household mortgage applications from September 2012 until January 2014. Our assessment of risk exposure among mortgage borrowers in Switzerland is highly sensitive to the underlying assumptions on mortgage costs, hou...

  3. Information Acquisition and Excessive Risk: Impact of Policy Rate and Market Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volha Audzei

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Excessive risk-taking of financial agents drew a lot of attention in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Low interest rates and subdued market volatility during the Great Moderation are sometimes blamed for stimulating risk-taking and leading to the recent financial crisis. In recent years, with many central banks around the world conducting the policy of low interest rates and mitigating market risks, it has been debatable whether this policy contributes to the building up of another credit boom. This paper addresses this issue by focusing on information acquisition by the financial agents. We build a theoretical model which captures excessive risk taking in response to changes in policy rate and market volatility. This excessive risk takes the form of an increased risk appetite of the agents, but also of decreased incentives to acquire information about risky assets. As a result, with market risk being reduced, agents tend to acquire more risk in their portfolios then they would with the higher market risk. The same forces increase portfolio risk when the safe interest rate is falling. The robustness of the results is considered with different learning rules.

  4. [Political psychology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resch, Mária; Bella, Tamás

    2013-04-21

    In Hungary one can mostly find references to the psychological processes of politics in the writings of publicists, public opinion pollsters, philosophers, social psychologists, and political analysts. It would be still important if not only legal scientists focusing on political institutions or sociologist-politologists concentrating on social structures could analyse the psychological aspects of political processes; but one could also do so through the application of the methods of political psychology. The authors review the history of political psychology, its position vis-à-vis other fields of science and the essential interfaces through which this field of science, which is still to be discovered in Hungary, connects to other social sciences. As far as its methodology comprising psycho-biographical analyses, questionnaire-based queries, cognitive mapping of interviews and statements are concerned, it is identical with the psychiatric tools of medical sciences. In the next part of this paper, the focus is shifted to the essence and contents of political psychology. Group dynamics properties, voters' attitudes, leaders' personalities and the behavioural patterns demonstrated by them in different political situations, authoritativeness, games, and charisma are all essential components of political psychology, which mostly analyses psychological-psychiatric processes and also involves medical sciences by relying on cognitive and behavioural sciences. This paper describes political psychology, which is basically part of social sciences, still, being an interdisciplinary science, has several ties to medical sciences through psychological and psychiatric aspects.

  5. Corporate interest rate risk management with derivatives in Australia: empirical results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Augusto Ferreira Carneiro

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Financial and insurance theories explain that large widely-held corporations manage corporate risks if doing so is costective to reduce frictional costs such as taxes, agency costs and financial distress costs. A large number of previous empirical studies, most in the U.S., have tested the hypotheses underlying corporate risk management with financial derivative instruments. In order to quantify corporate hedge demand, most previous studies have used the ratio of principal notional amount of derivatives to company size, although they recognize that company size is not an appropriate proxy for financial risk. This paper analyzes the interest-rate-risk hedge demand by Australian companies, measured through the ratio of principal notional amount of interest rate derivatives to interest-rate-riskbearing liabilities. Modern panel data methods are used, with two panel data sets from 1998 to 2003 (1102 and 465 observations, respectively. Detailed information about interest-rate-risk exposures was available after manual data collection from financial annual reports, which was only possible due to specific reporting requirements in Australian accounting standards. Regarding the analysis of the extent of hedge, our measurement of interest-rate-risk exposures generates some significant results di erent from those found in previous studies. For example, this study shows that total leverage (total debt ratio is not significantly important to interest-rate-risk hedge demand and that, instead, this demand is related to the specific risk exposure in the interest bearing part of the firms liabilities. This study finds significant relations of interest-rate-risk hedge to company size, floating-interest-rate debt ratio, annual log returns, and company industry type (utilities and non-banking financial institutions.

  6. Political CSR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeppesen, Søren; Morsing, Mette

    We engage a discussion of political CSR in SMEs in an African context. Based on critical observations on Western MNC CSR action in emerging economies that holds counterproductive implications for social development, political economists have argued that business profit far more than society...... development in local African communities. Our findings extend political CSR research by directing attention to how the corporate influence in developing economies does not only emerge from MNCs but is also established and retained by SMEs CSR work....

  7. Political Competitiveness

    OpenAIRE

    Casey B. Mulligan; Kevin K. Tsui

    2006-01-01

    Political competitiveness - which many interpret as the degree of democracy - can be modeled as a monopolistic competition. All regimes are constrained by the threat of "entry," and thereby seek some combination of popular support and political entry barriers. This simple model predicts that many public policies are unrelated to political competitiveness, and that even unchallenged nondemocratic regimes should tax far short of their Laffer curve maximum. Economic sanctions, odious debt repudi...

  8. Political Ecology

    OpenAIRE

    DeFriez, Joshua; Larsen, Justine; Hilton, Nicholas

    2014-01-01

    Environmental legislation is commonly accepted as an altruistic approach to land management. A closer examination however, reveals that political incentives and flawed arguments consistently shape U.S. environmental policy at high public costs. As student fellows at the Institute of Political Economy at Utah State University, we have had the opportunity to research this subject under the direction of Professor Randy Simmons. Political Ecology is his upcoming book that explores a variety of en...

  9. Political Campaigns

    OpenAIRE

    Lilleker, Darren

    2017-01-01

    Political campaigns are orchestrated attempts by political organizations to garner public support through persuasive communication in order to influence public policy in their favor. This broad definition encapsulates all forms of campaigns from those of neighborhood organizations seeking to influence local politicians to the campaigns of political parties and candidates who seek election to office in order to shape policy themselves. In pluralist democracies, campaigns are crucial for repres...

  10. Political administration

    OpenAIRE

    Åkerstrøm Andersen, Niels

    2000-01-01

    One of the major discussions of the 1990s has been about the relation between politics and administration. The themes of the discussions have been many and varied. It has been suggested that the level of politics should concentrate on the general political outlining and entrust the remaining to the administration. It has been criticised that politicians make their decisions on the basis of single cases, which ought to be an administrative matter entirely. It has been a theme that efficient op...

  11. The Political Opportunity of the Outsider

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lubinski, Christina

    This paper examines the political strategies of two German firms—Siemens and I.G. Farben—in interwar India as a way to consider how multinational enterprises (MNEs) deal with political risk. The interwar period was characterized by rising political risks throughout the global economy, as conflicts...... contexts but actively shaping political identities and processes of legitimization. This paper uses this case to argue for a rethink of political risk in international business, to regard it as a source of political opportunities that multinationals can capitalize on, and not exclusively as a source...

  12. Explore the Application of Financial Engineering in the Management of Exchange Rate Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the background where the domestic enterprises commonly have a weak protection consciousness against the exchange rate risk, this article makes a deep analysis based on the definition of exchange rate risk and its cause. By comparison of the traditional management method of exchange rate risk with another one based on financial engineering tools, it also deeply analyzes the method to use the financial engineering technology in the management of exchange rate risk, and concludes the primary purpose of exchange rate risk management is for hedging. This article proposes an optimal analysis method in two aspects, namely the minimum risk and maximum efficiency, for the forward-based optimal hedging, and proposes an optimal analysis method of dynamic hedging for the optimal hedging of option-based tools. Based on the description of the application of financial tools in foreign exchange futures, forward contract, currency exchange and foreign exchange option, it makes an empirical analysis on the management of foreign exchange risk by taking an assumed T company as the carrier and based on the trading tools of forward foreign exchange and currency option, which describes the operation procedure of financial tools in a more direct way and proves the efficiency of the optimal analysis method of this article.

  13. Smile and Default: The Role of Stochastic Volatility and Interest Rates in Counterparty Credit Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simaitis, S.; de Graaf, C.S.L.; Hari, N.; Kandhai, D.

    2016-01-01

    In this research, we investigate the impact of stochastic volatility and interest rates on counterparty credit risk (CCR) for FX derivatives. To achieve this we analyse two real-life cases in which the market conditions are different, namely during the 2008 credit crisis where risks are high and a

  14. Concordance of Motion Sensor and Clinician-Rated Fall Risk Scores in Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elledge, Julie

    2017-12-01

    As the older adult population in the United States continues to grow, developing reliable, valid, and practical methods for identifying fall risk is a high priority. Falls are prevalent in older adults and contribute significantly to morbidity and mortality rates and rising health costs. Identifying at-risk older adults and intervening in a timely manner can reduce falls. Conventional fall risk assessment tools require a health professional trained in the use of each tool for administration and interpretation. Motion sensor technology, which uses three-dimensional cameras to measure patient movements, is promising for assessing older adults' fall risk because it could eliminate or reduce the need for provider oversight. The purpose of this study was to assess the concordance of fall risk scores as measured by a motion sensor device, the OmniVR Virtual Rehabilitation System, with clinician-rated fall risk scores in older adult outpatients undergoing physical rehabilitation. Three standardized fall risk assessments were administered by the OmniVR and by a clinician. Validity of the OmniVR was assessed by measuring the concordance between the two assessment methods. Stability of the OmniVR fall risk ratings was assessed by measuring test-retest reliability. The OmniVR scores showed high concordance with the clinician-rated scores and high stability over time, demonstrating comparability with provider measurements.

  15. Heart rate variability based on risk stratification for type 2 diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva-E-Oliveira, Julia; Amélio, Pâmela Marina; Abranches, Isabela Lopes Laguardia; Damasceno, Dênis Derly; Furtado, Fabianne

    2017-01-01

    To evaluate heart rate variability among adults with different risk levels for type 2 diabetes mellitus. The risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus was assessed in 130 participants (89 females) based on the questionnaire Finnish Diabetes Risk Score and was classified as low risk (n=26), slightly elevated risk (n=41), moderate risk (n=27) and high risk (n=32). To measure heart rate variability, a heart-rate monitor Polar S810i® was employed to obtain RR series for each individual, at rest, for 5 minutes, followed by analysis of linear and nonlinear indexes. The groups at higher risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus had significantly lower linear and nonlinear heart rate variability indexes. The individuals at high risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus have lower heart rate variability. Avaliar a variabilidade da frequência cardíaca em adultos com diferentes níveis de risco para diabetes mellitus tipo 2. O grau de risco para diabetes mellitus tipo 2 de 130 participantes (41 homens) foi avaliado pelo questionário Finnish Diabetes Risk Score. Os participantes foram classificados em baixo risco (n=26), risco levemente elevado (n=41), risco moderado (n=27) e alto risco (n=32). Para medir a variabilidade da frequência cardíaca, utilizou-se o frequencímetro Polar S810i® para obter séries de intervalo RR para cada indivíduo, em repouso, durante 5 minutos; posteriormente, realizou-se análise por meio de índices lineares e não-lineares. O grupo com maior risco para diabetes mellitus tipo 2 teve uma diminuição significante nos índices lineares e não-lineares da variabilidade da frequência cardíaca. Os resultados apontam que indivíduos com risco alto para diabetes mellitus tipo 2 tem menor variabilidade da frequência cardíaca. To evaluate heart rate variability among adults with different risk levels for type 2 diabetes mellitus. The risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus was assessed in 130 participants (89 females) based on the questionnaire Finnish Diabetes Risk Score

  16. Surgical site infection rates and risk factors in orthopedic pediatric patients in Madrid, Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viqueira, Almudena Quintás; Caravaca, Gil Rodríguez; Quesada Rubio, José Antonio; Francés, Victoria Soler

    2014-07-01

    The objective of the study is to study surgical site infection (SSI) rates and risk factors in a pediatric population. We conducted a prospective cohort study to estimate the SSI rate at a national pediatric referral center, covering all patients managed at the Orthopedic Surgery Department of the Niño Jesús Children's University Teaching Hospital from January 2010 through December 2012. Risk factors and antibiotic prophylaxis were monitored. A comparison between Spanish and US data was performed, with a breakdown by National Nosocomial Infection Surveillance risk indices. We also conducted a comparative study of SSI rates from 2010 to 2012 to assess the impact of the epidemiologic surveillance system. The study population of 1079 patients had a SSI rate of 2.8%. SSI rates were calculated for spinal fusion and other musculoskeletal procedures according to the National Nosocomial Infection Surveillance risk index. In the case of other musculoskeletal procedures, our SSI rates were 0.8 times lower than the overall Spanish rate, but higher than US rates for all risk categories. For spinal fusion procedures, our SSI rates were 1.2 times higher than the Spanish rates and 3.5 times higher than National Nosocomial Infection Surveillance rates. This latter finding should be interpreted with caution because it was based on a small sample. The multivariate analysis indicated that the only predictive factors of SSI were American Society of Anesthesiologists score and age. The surveillance program showed that for clean procedures, SSI incidence decreased from 4% in 2010 to 3.2% in 2011 and to 2.4% in 2012.

  17. Racial/ethnic differences in the rates and correlates of HIV risk behaviors among drug abusers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Audrey J; Lokhnygina, Yuliya; Meade, Christina S; Potter, Jennifer Sharpe; Calsyn, Donald A; Greenfield, Shelly F

    2013-01-01

    HIV infection disproportionately impacts minorities; yet research on racial/ethnic differences in the prevalence and correlates of HIV risk behaviors is limited. This study examined racial/ethnic differences in the rates of HIV risk behaviors and whether the relationship between HIV risk factors and HIV risk behaviors varies by race/ethnicity in clients participating in NIDA Clinical Trials Network trials. The sample was 41% non-Hispanic White, 32% non-Hispanic Black, and 27% Hispanic (N = 2,063). HIV risk behaviors and measures of substance and psychosocial HIV risk factors in the past month were obtained. Non-Hispanic Blacks engaged in less HIV sexual risk behaviors overall than non-Hispanic Whites. While non-Hispanic Whites were the most likely to report any injection drug use, Hispanics engaged in the most HIV drug risk behaviors. Specific risk factors were differentially predictive of HIV risk behavior by race/ethnicity. Alcohol use severity was related to engaging in higher sex risk behaviors for non-Hispanic Blacks and Whites. Greater psychiatric severity was related to engaging in higher sex risk behaviors for non-Hispanic Whites. Drug use severity was associated with engaging in higher risk drug behaviors for non-Hispanic Whites and Hispanics with the magnitude of the relationship stronger for Hispanics. These findings highlight the need for further research testing HIV risk prevention interventions within racial/ethnic groups to identify target behaviors or risk factors that are salient to inform HIV interventions. The present study provides a systematic examination of race/ethnicity differences in the relationship between psychosocial risk factors and HIV risk behaviors. Copyright © American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

  18. Decreased nighttime heart rate variability is associated with increased stroke risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Binici, Zeynep; Mouridsen, Mette Rauhe; Køber, Lars

    2011-01-01

    Prediction of stroke in healthy individuals is challenging and there is a diurnal variation of stroke onset. We hypothesized that heart rate variability with a focus on nighttime heart rate variability will predict the risk of stroke in apparently healthy middle-age and elderly subjects....

  19. Community rating in the absence of risk equalisation: lessons from the Irish private health insurance market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Brian; Shinnick, Edward

    2013-04-01

    Ireland's private health insurance market operates on the basis of community rating, alongside open enrolment and lifetime cover. A risk equalisation scheme was introduced in 2003 to bolster community rating. However, in July 2008 the Irish Supreme Court set aside this scheme, on the basis of the interpretation of community rating in Irish legislation. This decision has significant implications for the Irish private health insurance market. This paper reviews the development of the market, focusing in particular on community rating. The breakdown of community rating in a market with multiple insurers with differing risk profiles is discussed. Applying this to the Irish market, it can be seen that the Irish Supreme Court judgment has significant implications for the application of community rating. Specifically, while community rating operates within plans, it no longer operates across the market, leading to high-risk lives paying more, on average, than low-risk lives. It has also led to greater opportunities for insurers to engage in market segmentation. This may have relevance for the design and operation of other community rated markets.

  20. Nationwide surveillance of drug-resistant tuberculosis in The Netherlands: rates, risk factors and treatment outcome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lambregts-van Weezenbeek, C. S.; Jansen, H. M.; Nagelkerke, N. J.; van Klingeren, B.; Veen, J.

    1998-01-01

    The Netherlands, 1993 and 1994. To determine 1) rates of drug resistance in relation to nationality and country of birth, 2) risk factors for drug resistance, 3) treatment outcome of drug-resistant cases, and 4) rates of primary and acquired drug resistance. Retrospective study of all cases notified

  1. Political consumerism, young citizens and the Internet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ward, J.; de Vreese, C.

    2011-01-01

    Evidence suggests that purchasing products for ethical or political reasons−also known as political consumerism−may be gaining in importance. With (young) people’s declining voting rates and a general disinterest in political institutions, scholars and political elites alike are speculating on the

  2. India in search of right Universal Health Coverage (UHC) model: The risks of implementing UHC in the absence of political demand by the citizen

    OpenAIRE

    Kumar, Raman; Roy, Pritam

    2016-01-01

    Amid the global push for Universal Health Coverage (UHC), the agenda is being set for India′s health care. In the absence of a constitutional mandate, a national policy and citizen-led political demand for UHC, there exist specific risks in rushing toward its implementation in India. As the debate of UHC continues, the health-care delivery system in India is at cross roads. UHC in India could take two different trajectories. The first one takes India toward becoming "Global Bazaar" of morbidi...

  3. IIHS side crash test ratings and occupant death risk in real-world crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teoh, Eric R; Lund, Adrian K

    2011-10-01

    To evaluate how well the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) side crash test ratings predict real-world occupant death risk in side-impact crashes. The IIHS has been evaluating passenger vehicle side crashworthiness since 2003. In the IIHS side crash test, a vehicle is impacted perpendicularly on the driver's side by a moving deformable barrier simulating a typical sport utility vehicle (SUV) or pickup. Injury ratings are computed for the head/neck, torso, and pelvis/leg, and vehicles are rated based on their ability to protect occupants' heads and resist occupant compartment intrusion. Component ratings are combined into an overall rating of good, acceptable, marginal, or poor. A driver-only rating was recalculated by omitting rear passenger dummy data. Data were extracted from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and National Automotive Sampling System/General Estimates System (NASS/GES) for the years 2000-2009. Analyses were restricted to vehicles with driver side air bags with head and torso protection as standard features. The risk of driver death was computed as the number of drivers killed (FARS) divided by the number involved (NASS/GES) in left-side impacts and was modeled using logistic regression to control for the effects of driver age and gender and vehicle type and curb weight. Death rates per million registered vehicle years were computed for all outboard occupants and compared by overall rating. Based on the driver-only rating, drivers of vehicles rated good were 70 percent less likely to die when involved in left-side crashes than drivers of vehicles rated poor, after controlling for driver and vehicle factors. Compared with vehicles rated poor, driver death risk was 64 percent lower for vehicles rated acceptable and 49 percent lower for vehicles rated marginal. All 3 results were statistically significant. Among components, vehicle structure rating exhibited the strongest relationship with driver death risk. The vehicle

  4. Rating

    OpenAIRE

    Karas, Vladimír

    2006-01-01

    Charakteristika ratingu. Dělení a druhy ratingu (rating emise × rating emitenta; dlouhodobý rating × krátkodobý rating; mezinárodní rating × lokální rating). Obecné požadavky kladené na rating. Proces tvorby ratingu. Vyžádaný rating. Nevyžádaný rating. Ratingový proces na bázi volně přístupných informací. Uplatňované ratingové systémy. Ratingová kriteria. Využití a interpretace ratingové známky. Funkce ratingu. Rating v souvislosti s BASEL II. Rating v souvislosti s hospodářskými krizemi....

  5. The political economy of farmers' suicides in India: indebted cash-crop farmers with marginal landholdings explain state-level variation in suicide rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Jonathan; King, Lawrence

    2014-03-26

    A recent Lancet article reported the first reliable estimates of suicide rates in India. National-level suicide rates are among the highest in the world, but suicide rates vary sharply between states and the causes of these differences are disputed. We test whether differences in the structure of agricultural production explain inter-state variation in suicides rates. This hypothesis is supported by a large number of qualitative studies, which argue that the liberalization of the agricultural sector in the early-1990s led to an agrarian crisis and that consequently farmers with certain socioeconomic characteristics-cash crops cultivators, with marginal landholdings, and debts-are at particular risk of committing suicide. The recent Lancet study, however, contends that there is no evidence to support this hypothesis. We report scatter diagrams and linear regression models that combine the new state-level suicide rate estimates and the proportion of marginal farmers, cash crop cultivation, and indebted farmers. When we include all variables in the regression equation there is a significant positive relationship between the percentage of marginal farmers, cash crop production, and indebted farmers, and suicide rates. This model accounts for almost 75% of inter-state variation in suicide rates. If the proportion of marginal farmers, cash crops, or indebted farmers were reduced by 1%, the suicide rate--suicides per 100,000 per year--would fall by 0 · 437, 0 · 518 or 0 · 549 respectively, when all other variables are held constant. Even if the Indian state is unable to enact land reforms due to the power of local elites, interventions to stabilize the price of cash crops and relieve indebted farmers may be effective at reducing suicide rates.

  6. Psychosocial risk predicts high readmission rates for hematopoietic cell transplant recipients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Daniel R; Huang, Ying; McGinty, Heather L; Elder, Patrick; Newlin, Joanna; Kirkendall, Cyndi; Andritsos, Leslie; Benson, Don; Blum, William; Efebera, Yvonne; Penza, Sam; Hofmeister, Craig; Jaglowski, Samantha; Klisovic, Rebecca; Vasu, Sumithira; William, Basem; Devine, Steven; Rosko, Ashley E

    2018-02-14

    Hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is an intensive treatment resulting in disease control however subsequent psychosocial distress is common. Screening for psychosocial risk factors that contribute to morbidity is underutilized; moreover, the value in screening is uncertain. We performed a retrospective study of 395 HCT patients who were screened for psychosocial risk using the Transplant Evaluation Rating Scale (TERS). Patients were classified by psychosocial risk as no-risk (TERS = 26.5, 52%) vs. at-risk (TERS > 26.5, 48%), with at-risk patients stratified by cumulative deficits into mild risk (TERS = 27-35.5, 39%) and moderate risk (TERS > 35.5, 9%). At-risk patients were more likely to be readmitted within 90 days (mild risk HR = 1.62, p = 0.02; moderate risk HR = 2.50, p = 0.002). Prior psychiatric history (HR = 1.81, p = 0.002) and poor coping skills (HR = 1.64, p = 0.04) also influenced readmission. At-risk patients were more likely to be readmitted for infection (no-risk = 12% vs. at-risk = 25%, p = 0.002). Pre-HCT screening with the TERS did not predict survival or length of stay although at-risk patients are at a heighted risk of readmission. Implementing strategies to reduce readmission in higher risk patients is warranted.

  7. Political Predation and Economic Development

    OpenAIRE

    Azam, Jean-Paul; Bates, Robert H; Biais, Bruno

    2005-01-01

    Economic growth occurs as resources are reallocated from the traditional sector to the more productive modern sector. Yet, the latter is more vulnerable to political predation. Hence, political risk hinders development. We analyse a politico-economic game between citizens and governments, whose type (benevolent or predatory) is unknown to the citizens. In equilibrium, opportunistic governments mix between predation and restraint. As long as restraint is observed, political expectations improv...

  8. Risk-adjusted melanoma skin cancer incidence rates in Whites (United States).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrill, Ray Martell

    2011-12-01

    The objective of this study was to obtain a better population-based measure of risk for melanoma skin cancer. A method has been previously proposed for estimating cancer incidence rates for data collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. Unlike conventionally reported incidence rates in the USA, this method uses the first primary cancer and adjusts for population-based cancer prevalence to obtain a better measure of cancer risk. The study involves SEER data for white men and women. Conventional melanoma incidence rates overestimate risk for men, increasingly so from 3.3% in the age group of 30-39 years to 11.3% in the age group of 80 years and older. Overestimation in risk for women ranged from 3.3% in the age group of 30-39 years to 8.9% in the age group of 80 years and older. Overestimation of risk was more pronounced when both in-situ and malignant melanomas were considered. Increasing trends in conventional rates were slightly greater than trends in risk-adjusted incidence rates (RAIRs). In 2007, the estimated number of cases with malignant melanoma among the white population based on conventional cancer incidence rates is 37 636 (64 125 including in-situ cases) for men and 28 935 (49 361 including in-situ cases) for women. The estimated number of cases in the USA based on RAIRS is 34 652 [(7.9%); 55 413 (13.6%) including in-situ cases] for male and 27 178 [(6.1%); 44 467 (9.9%) including in-situ cases] for women. We concluded that RAIRs are a better measure of melanoma skin cancer risk and should be used for estimating the number of cancer patients in the USA.

  9. State disparities in colorectal cancer rates: Contributions of risk factors, screening, and survival differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Goede, S Lucas; Ma, Jiemin; Xiau-Cheng, Wu; Pawlish, Karen; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Jemal, Ahmedin

    2015-10-15

    Northeastern states of the United States have shown more progress in reducing colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality rates than Southern states, and this has resulted in considerable disparities. This study quantified how the disparities in CRC rates between Louisiana (a Southern state) and New Jersey (a Northeastern state) would be affected if differences in risk factors, screening, and stage-specific CRC relative survival between the states were eliminated. This study used the Microsimulation Screening Analysis Colon microsimulation model to estimate age-adjusted CRC incidence and mortality rates in Louisiana from 1995 to 2009 under the assumption that 1) Louisiana had the same smoking and obesity prevalence observed in New Jersey, 2) Louisiana had the same CRC screening uptake observed in New Jersey, 3) Louisiana had the same stage-specific CRC relative survival observed in New Jersey, or 4) all the preceding were true. In 2009, the observed CRC incidence and mortality rates in Louisiana were 141.4 cases and 61.9 deaths per 100,000 individuals, respectively. With the same risk factors and screening observed in New Jersey, the CRC incidence rate in Louisiana was reduced by 3.5% and 15.2%, respectively. New Jersey's risk factors, screening, and survival reduced the CRC mortality rate in Louisiana by 3.0%, 10.8%, and 17.4%, respectively. With all trends combined, the modeled rates per 100,000 individuals in Louisiana became lower than the observed rates in New Jersey for both incidence (116.4 vs 130.0) and mortality (44.7 vs 55.8). The disparities in CRC incidence and mortality rates between Louisiana and New Jersey could be eliminated if Louisiana could attain New Jersey's levels of risk factors, screening, and survival. Priority should be given to enabling Southern states to improve screening and survival rates. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

  10. Risk factors associated with high prevalence rates of hepatitis C infection in Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reker, Celeste; Islam, K M

    2014-08-01

    Egypt has the highest reported prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) globally. Until now, no systematic review has been conducted to understand risk factors associated with these high prevalence rates of HCV. This study attempted to identify the various HCV risk factors in Egypt responsible for the high incidence and prevalence rates. Using systematic literature review methods, we searched databases for eligible manuscripts, selecting cohort and case-control studies published in English. Peer-reviewed papers published between 2008 and February 2013 were included. A total of 11 articles met the study selection criteria. The most examined risk factors found during our review analysis were surgery, transfusion, and age (64-82% of total articles; n = 11). Multiple risk factors held significant association with HCV infection in the included research. Based on this review, the main HCV risk factor categories are unsafe medical practices and familial risk factors. Improving medical safety and encouraging familial education on HCV may help reduce the incidence of the disease. Most risk factors for HCV transmission in Egypt are healthcare-associated. Primary prevention of HCV infection remains important to reduce HCV transmission. Further research should also focus on risk factor dynamics of HCV in Egypt to reduce transmission and HCV disease burden. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  11. Suicide and schizophrenia: a systematic review of rates and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hor, Kahyee; Taylor, Mark

    2010-11-01

    Risk assessment is a core skill in psychiatry. Risk prediction for suicide in schizophrenia is known to be complex. We undertook a systematic review of all original studies concerning suicide in schizophrenia published since 2004. We found 51 data-containing studies (from 1281 studies screened) that met our inclusion criteria, and ranked these by standardized quality criteria. Estimates of rates of suicide and risk factors associated with later suicide were identified, and the risk factors were grouped according to type and strength of association with suicide. Consensus on the lifetime risk of suicide was a rate of approximately 5%. Risk factors with a strong association with later suicide included being young, male, and with a high level of education. Illness-related risk factors were important predictors, with number of prior suicide attempts, depressive symptoms, active hallucinations and delusions, and the presence of insight all having a strong evidential basis. A family history of suicide, and comorbid substance misuse were also positively associated with later suicide. The only consistent protective factor for suicide was delivery of and adherence to effective treatment. Prevention of suicide in schizophrenia will rely on identifying those individuals at risk, and treating comorbid depression and substance misuse, as well as providing best available treatment for psychotic symptoms.

  12. A statistical modeling approach to build expert credit risk rating systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waagepetersen, Rasmus

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an efficient method for extracting expert knowledge when building a credit risk rating system. Experts are asked to rate a sample of counterparty cases according to creditworthiness. Next, a statistical model is used to capture the relation between the characteristics...... of a counterparty and the expert rating. For any counterparty the model can identify the rating, which would be agreed upon by the majority of experts. Furthermore, the model can quantify the concurrence among experts. The approach is illustrated by a case study regarding the construction of an application score...

  13. Spiritual Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric Rambeau

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available According to Foucault, the uprising of the Iranian people in the seventies reveals how much the political force of Islam is due precisely to the fact that it is not principally located in the field of politics, but in that of ethics. Religion (Shiite Islam appears as the guarantee of real change in the very mode of existence. This spiritual politics is marginalized by Marxism, where it is understood as a discontinuity in relation to proper politics, given that the latter is necessarily linked to a strategic rationalization. By indicating, at this juncture of what is intolerable, the living source and the critical impulse of the Foucauldian ethics, this spiritual politics also leads to recognize in the concept of “subjectivation” a dimension that might escape the circle of freedom as determined by a total immanence to power. This conceptual possibility is highly present in the aporias of the Foucauldian concept of the “relation to oneself”, both as a first condition of governmentality and the ultimate point of resistance against any governmentality. It thus reveals the difficulties in relating political to ethical subjectivation.

  14. Health risk factors and self-rated health among job-seekers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freyer-Adam, Jennis; Gaertner, Beate; Tobschall, Stefanie; John, Ulrich

    2011-08-19

    To determine a) proportions of behavior related health risk factors among job-seekers and b) to what extend these are related to self-rated health. Over 12 months, job-seekers were recruited at three job-agencies in northeastern Germany. Among all individuals eligible for study inclusion, 7,906 (79.8%) provided information on smoking, risky drinking, overweight/obesity (body mass index), fruit and vegetable intake, physical inactivity, illicit drug use, and self-rated health. Proportions and 95% confidence intervals stratified by gender, age and duration of unemployment were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression analyses predicting self-rated health were conducted. The proportions of each health-risk factor were high, and 52.4% of the sample (53.4% male, 33.5 years mean age) had 3 or more health risk factors. Mostly, the proportions were particularly high among men and long-term unemployed individuals; e.g. 84.8% of the 18-24 year old long-term unemployed men were current smokers. Proportions of substance use related health risk factors were highest among the 18-24 year olds (e.g. risky drinking 28.7%), and proportions of health risk factors related to nutrition and physical inactivity were highest among the 40-64 year olds (e.g. overweight/obesity 65.4%). Depending on gender, all health risk factors and having 3 or more health risk factors were associated with lower self-rated health; odd ratios ranged between 1.2 for smoking (95% CI: 1.0-1.3) and 1.7 for overweight and physical inactivity (95% CI: 1.5-1.9). Prevention efforts to reduce health risk factors and to increase health among job-seekers are needed, and job agencies appear a feasible setting for their implementation.

  15. Health risk factors and self-rated health among job-seekers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobschall Stefanie

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To determine a proportions of behavior related health risk factors among job-seekers and b to what extend these are related to self-rated health. Methods Over 12 months, job-seekers were recruited at three job-agencies in northeastern Germany. Among all individuals eligible for study inclusion, 7,906 (79.8% provided information on smoking, risky drinking, overweight/obesity (body mass index, fruit and vegetable intake, physical inactivity, illicit drug use, and self-rated health. Proportions and 95% confidence intervals stratified by gender, age and duration of unemployment were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression analyses predicting self-rated health were conducted. Results The proportions of each health-risk factor were high, and 52.4% of the sample (53.4% male, 33.5 years mean age had 3 or more health risk factors. Mostly, the proportions were particularly high among men and long-term unemployed individuals; e.g. 84.8% of the 18-24 year old long-term unemployed men were current smokers. Proportions of substance use related health risk factors were highest among the 18-24 year olds (e.g. risky drinking 28.7%, and proportions of health risk factors related to nutrition and physical inactivity were highest among the 40-64 year olds (e.g. overweight/obesity 65.4%. Depending on gender, all health risk factors and having 3 or more health risk factors were associated with lower self-rated health; odd ratios ranged between 1.2 for smoking (95% CI: 1.0-1.3 and 1.7 for overweight and physical inactivity (95% CI: 1.5-1.9. Conclusions Prevention efforts to reduce health risk factors and to increase health among job-seekers are needed, and job agencies appear a feasible setting for their implementation.

  16. Pulsed electromagnetic field stimulation may improve fusion rates in cervical arthrodesis in high-risk populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coric, D; Bullard, D E; Patel, V V; Ryaby, J T; Atkinson, B L; He, D; Guyer, R D

    2018-02-01

    Pulsed electromagnetic field (PEMF) stimulation was evaluated after anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF) procedures in a randomized, controlled clinical study performed for United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval. PEMF significantly increased fusion rates at six months, but 12-month fusion outcomes for subjects at elevated risk for pseudoarthrosis were not thoroughly reported. The objective of the current study was to evaluate the effect of PEMF treatment on subjects at increased risk for pseudoarthrosis after ACDF procedures. Two evaluations were performed that compared fusion rates between PEMF stimulation and a historical control (160 subjects) from the FDA investigational device exemption (IDE) study: a post hoc (PH) analysis of high-risk subjects from the FDA study (PH PEMF); and a multicentre, open-label (OL) study consisting of 274 subjects treated with PEMF (OL PEMF). Fisher's exact test and multivariate logistic regression was used to compare fusion rates between PEMF-treated subjects and historical controls. In separate comparisons of PH PEMF and OL PEMF groups to the historical control group, PEMF treatment significantly (p PEMF treatment can be recommended for patients who are at high risk for pseudoarthrosis. Cite this article : D. Coric, D. E. Bullard, V. V. Patel, J. T. Ryaby, B. L. Atkinson, D. He, R. D. Guyer. Pulsed electromagnetic field stimulation may improve fusion rates in cervical arthrodesis in high-risk populations. Bone Joint Res 2018;7:124-130. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.72.BJR-2017-0221.R1. © 2018 Coric et al.

  17. Risk Management of Interest Rate Derivative Portfolios: A Stochastic Control Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantinos Kiriakopoulos

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we formulate the Risk Management Control problem in the interest rate area as a constrained stochastic portfolio optimization problem. The utility that we use can be any continuous function and based on the viscosity theory, the unique solution of the problem is guaranteed. The numerical approximation scheme is presented and applied using a single factor interest rate model. It is shown how the whole methodology works in practice, with the implementation of the algorithm for a specific interest rate portfolio. The recent financial crisis showed that risk management of derivatives portfolios especially in the interest rate market is crucial for the stability of the financial system. Modern Value at Risk (VAR and Conditional Value at Risk (CVAR techniques, although very useful and easy to understand, fail to grasp the need for on-line controlling and monitoring of derivatives portfolio. The portfolios should be designed in a way that risk and return be quantified and controlled in every possible state of the world. We hope that this methodology contributes towards this direction.

  18. Putting at risk what we know: reflecting on the drug-using subject in harm reduction and its political implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, David; Fraser, Suzanne

    2006-06-01

    This paper provides a poststructuralist analysis of the cultural inscription of drug-using subjects in the neo-liberal discourses of contemporary harm reduction. We argue that although neo-liberal discourses downplay material constraints on individual human agency, divert policy and practice away from structural issues, limit the conception of effective strategies for harm reduction and ignore alternative formulations of the subject, they are also potentially empowering for drug users. Approximating the neo-liberal subject offers political benefits in terms of recognition, trust and legitimation, even as those values assume and reproduce understandings of behaviour, thought and sociality that fit only poorly the realities faced by many drug users. We explore this dilemma and consider three available directions in formulating the subject of harm reduction: (1) embracing the neo-liberal subject; (2) employing a more contextualised version of the neo-liberal subject; and (3) adopting alternative notions of subjectivity, extending the critique of the neo-liberal subject to all citizens, not solely drug users. To clarify some of these issues surrounding this strategic process, the paper considers another field in which struggles over the nature of the subject have been conducted--feminism. The intention is not to resolve the question of the most appropriate subject for harm reduction, but to sketch the political consequences of adopting particular models of the subject as a stimulus to further discussion and debate.

  19. Binary Tree Pricing to Convertible Bonds with Credit Risk under Stochastic Interest Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianbo Huang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The convertible bonds usually have multiple additional provisions that make their pricing problem more difficult than straight bonds and options. This paper uses the binary tree method to model the finance market. As the underlying stock prices and the interest rates are important to the convertible bonds, we describe their dynamic processes by different binary tree. Moreover, we consider the influence of the credit risks on the convertible bonds that is described by the default rate and the recovery rate; then the two-factor binary tree model involving the credit risk is established. On the basis of the theoretical analysis, we make numerical simulation and get the pricing results when the stock prices are CRR model and the interest rates follow the constant volatility and the time-varying volatility, respectively. This model can be extended to other financial derivative instruments.

  20. Development of a modified Winchester disability scale--the elderly at risk rating scale.

    OpenAIRE

    Donald, I P

    1997-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To show that the elderly at risk rating scale (EARRS) satisfies the requirements of an assessment tool for routine health checks in people over 75 and would also be suitable as a method of collecting epidemiological data on the needs of the elderly in a locality. DESIGN: Development and validation of a questionnaire based on a modification of the Winchester rating scale, by a series of prospective, comparative studies before the use of the instrument in a community survey. SETTING:...

  1. Political symbols and political transitions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herrero de Miñón, Miguel

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Politics, Law and Psychology are fields that come together in the symbolic. This text takes evidence from those three areas to develop an analysis of political symbols and political transitions. The development of the analysis goes through three stages. The first succinctly describes the concept of transition and its meaning. The second closely examines the notion of the symbol, in terms of its definition, to explain aspects that allow us to understand it, characterise it and make its functions clear. Finally, from the author's experience as a witness and as an actor, I suggest three ways of understanding symbols in the processes of political transition: as symbols of change, as symbols of acknowledgment, and as symbols of support.

  2. Fracture risk assessed by Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) compared with fracture risk derived from population fracture rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Abrahamsen, Bo; Hermann, Anne Pernille

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the performance of the Swedish version of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)) without bone mass density (BMD) in a Danish population to examine the possibility of applying this version to Danish women. METHODS: From the Danish National Register of social security numbers, we...

  3. The Political Opportunity of the Outsider

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lubinski, Christina

    This paper examines the political strategies of two German firms—Siemens and I.G. Farben—in interwar India as a way to consider how multinational enterprises (MNEs) deal with political risk. The interwar period was characterized by rising political risks throughout the global economy, as conflicts...... between developed national economies rose in the wake of World War I, as anti-­‐colonial and communist movements gained ground, and international monetary instability increased. Yet, far from retrenching from the global economy, German MNEs capitalized on the growing political risks by developing...... political strategies and cultivating political capabilities that allowed them to successfully pursue international markets in geopolitically turbulent times. Identifying their mechanisms and viewing them longitudinally shows MNEs as political actors, not just adapting and dealing with novel political...

  4. Risk adjustment for inter-hospital comparisons of caesarean section rates in Taipei municipal hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Chun-Chyang; Shieh, Guahn-Ren; Wu, Chuan-Song; Shen, Hsi-Che; Tang, Chao-Hsiun

    2006-08-01

    This study sets out to determine whether adjustments for specific patient caesarean delivery risk factors have an affect on the assessment of performance rates among the municipal hospitals of Taipei City. Analysis of National Health Insurance (NHI) claims data, linked with birth certificate data, was undertaken on a cohort of 27,693 live births in the six general hospitals of the Taipei Medical Hospital System (TMHS) between 1999 and 2001. Using multivariable logistic regression modeling of the risk factors independently associated with caesarean deliveries, an expected caesarean delivery rate was constructed for each of the hospitals. By contrasting observed rates with expected rates to quantify the magnitude of the deviation from average practice, a measurement similar to relative risk (RR) was also constructed for each hospital. The observed rates for two of the six hospitals examined fell within the expected 95% confidence interval (CI), two were above the expected upper limit, and two were below the expected lower limit. The RR ranking of Hospitals A (RR=1.08, CI=1.01-1.15) and C (RR=1.01, CI=1.00-1.03) improved from first to second, and third to fourth, whilst the RR of Hospitals B (RR=1.09, CI=1.05-1.14) and D (RR=1.02, CI=0.99-1.06) worsened from second to first, and fourth to third, respectively. The RR rankings of Hospitals E (RR=0.92, CI=0.88-0.96) and F (RR=0.80, CI=0.77-0.84) were the same as the observed rates. Caesarean delivery rate profiles, or hospital comparisons without risk adjustment, may be methodologically biased and may lead to unfair judgments by healthcare purchasers.

  5. Economy and energy politic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, J.M.

    1992-01-01

    This book, divided into four parts, describes, first, energy consumption and national economy growth. In a second part, the irresistible ascent of coal, natural gas and petroleum international markets is studied. In the third part, energy politic is investigated: exchanges releasing, prices deregulation, contestation of power industry monopoly, energy national market and common energetic politic, single market concept. In the last part, global risks and world-wide regulations are given: demand, energy resources, technical changes, comparative evaluations between fossil, nuclear and renewable energies, environment, investments financing and international cooperation. 23 refs., 14 figs., 16 tabs

  6. Customer Order Flow, Intermediaries, and Discovery of the Equilibrium Risk-Free Rate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Menkveld, A.J.; Sarkar, A.; van der Wel, M.

    2012-01-01

    Macro announcements change the equilibrium risk-free rate. We find that Treasury prices reflect part of the impact instantaneously, but intermediaries rely on their customer order flow after the announcement to discover the full impact. This customer flow informativeness is strongest when analyst

  7. Hostility Ratings by Parents at Risk for Child Abuse: Impact of Chronic and Temporary Schema Activation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farc, Maria-Magdalena; Crouch, Julie L.; Skowronski, John J.; Milner, Joel S.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: Two studies examined whether accessibility of hostility-related schema influenced ratings of ambiguous child pictures. Based on the social information processing model of child physical abuse (CPA), it was expected that CPA risk status would serve as a proxy for chronic accessibility of hostile schema, while priming procedures were used…

  8. estimated glomerular filtration rate and risk of survival in acute stroke

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-03-03

    Mar 3, 2014 ... the risk of survival in acute stroke. INTRODUCTION. Stroke is independently associated with impairment in the structure and function of the glomerulus. (1). Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (GFR) as determined by the four-item Modification of diet in renal disease (MDRD) equation is a fairly reliable.

  9. The association between social networks and self-rated risk of HIV ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Elizabeth J. Lyimo

    2014-03-18

    Mar 18, 2014 ... The association between social networks and self- rated risk of HIV infection among secondary school students in Moshi Municipality, Tanzania. Elizabeth J. Lyimo a. , Jim Todd bc. , Lisa Ann Richey d. & Bernard Njau e a. MPH, Kilimanjaro Christian Medical University College, Tumaini University, Moshi,.

  10. Mapping at-risk-of-poverty rates, household employment, and social spending

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vandenbroucke, F.; Diris, R.; Cantillon, B.; Vandenbroucke, F.

    2014-01-01

    As a first step stylized facts are presented concerning at-risk-of-poverty rates for the non-elderly population, household employment (a concept introduced in this chapter) and social spending in European welfare states. The chapter provides a first exploration of a central theme of the book, which

  11. How costly is it to ignore interest rate risk management in your 401(k) plan?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Bilsen, Servaas; Boelaars, I.; Bovenberg, Lans; Mehlkopf, Roel

    This paper explicitly derives and explores optimal interest rate risk management for lifecycle investors in DC pension plans, and compares our results to the portfolio mix chosen in practice by Target-Date Fund (TDF) managers. We show that investments in long-term bonds play an important role in the

  12. 1988 failure rate screening data for fusion reliability and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadwallader, L.C.; Piet, S.J.

    1988-01-01

    This document contains failure rate screening data for application to fusion components. The screening values are generally fission or aerospace industry failure rate estimates that can be extrapolated for use by fusion system designers, reliability engineers and risk analysts. Failure rate estimates for tritium-bearing systems, liquid metal-cooled systems, gas-cooled systems, water-cooled systems and containment systems are given. Preliminary system availability estimates and selected initiating event frequency estimates are presented. This first edition document is valuable to design and safety analysis for the Compact Ignition Tokamak and the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. 20 refs., 28 tabs

  13. Trends in state-level freight accident rates: An enhancement of risk factor development for RADTRAN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saricks, C.; Kvitek, T.

    1991-01-01

    Under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, the Department of Energy's Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is concerned with understanding and managing risk as it applies to the shipment of spent commercial nuclear reactor fuel. Understanding risk in relation to mode and geography may provide opportunities to minimize radiological and non-radiological risks of transportation. To enhance such an understanding, a set of state-or waterway-specific accident, fatality, and injury rates (expressed as rates per shipment kilometer) by transportation mode and highway administrative class was developed, using publicly-available data bases. Adjustments made to accommodate miscoded or incomplete information in accident data are described, as well as the procedures for estimating state-level flow data. Results indicate that the shipping conditions under which spent fuel is likely to be transported should be less subject to accidents than the ''average'' shipment within mode. 10 refs., 3 tabs

  14. Political ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strohm, H.

    1979-01-01

    Using facts and examples, this didactically structures textbook gives an insight into the extent and consequences of the damage to the environment, with the subjects - fundamentals of ecology; - population and food problems; - the energy problem; - economic growth; scarcity of resources, recycling; - ground, water, and air pollution, - city and traffic problems; - work protection and medical care; - political alternatives and 'soft technologies'. The analysis of the political and economic reasons is combined with social and technical alternatives from which demands to be made and measures to be taken can be derived for individuals, citizens' interest groups, political groups and trade unions. Teaching models intend to help teachers to work on specific problems of ecology. (orig.) [de

  15. Political priorities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ren, Jingzheng

    2016-01-01

    …THE POLITICAL LEADERS of the local government of Chongqing, China, vigorously promote a low-carbon economy and sustainable development to mitigate environmental pollution. Accordingly, research grants focused on this issue were supported by the government, and our group obtained a grant for a pr...... for a project about industrial park planning and design.…In my view, political priorities based on correct decision-making and market requirements are beneficial for researchers.......…THE POLITICAL LEADERS of the local government of Chongqing, China, vigorously promote a low-carbon economy and sustainable development to mitigate environmental pollution. Accordingly, research grants focused on this issue were supported by the government, and our group obtained a grant...

  16. Political CSR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeppesen, Søren; Morsing, Mette

    We engage a discussion of political CSR in SMEs in an African context. Based on critical observations on Western MNC CSR action in emerging economies that holds counterproductive implications for social development, political economists have argued that business profit far more than society...... development in local African communities. Our findings extend political CSR research by directing attention to how the corporate influence in developing economies does not only emerge from MNCs but is also established and retained by SMEs CSR work....... in developing economies from CSR. In this paper we argue that local SMEs CSR work have strong influence in developing economies, that also includes counterproductive influence for social development. Based on empirical findings from African countries, we conceptualize how CSR in African SMEs differ from...

  17. Injury rates, types, mechanisms and risk factors in female youth ice hockey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decloe, Melissa D; Meeuwisse, Willem H; Hagel, Brent E; Emery, Carolyn A

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this cohort study were to examine the rate, types, mechanisms and risk factors for injury in female youth (ages 9-17) ice hockey players in the Girls Hockey Calgary Association. The main outcome was ice hockey injury, defined as any injury occurring during the 2008/2009 season that required medical attention, and/or removal from a session and/or missing a subsequent session. Potential risk factors included age group, level of play, previous injury, ice hockey experience, physical activity level, weight, height, position of play and menarche. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) were estimated with Poisson Regression adjusted for cluster (team). Exposure data were collected for every session for each participating player. Twenty-eight teams (n=324) from Atom (ages 9-10), PeeWee (11-12), Bantam (13-14) and Midget (15-17) participated with 53 reported injuries. The overall injury rate was 1.9 injuries/1000 player-hours (95% CI 1.4 to 2.7). Previous injury (IRR=2.7, 95% CI 1.7 to 4.3), games (IRR=2.1, 95% CI 1.1 to 4.2), menarche (PeeWee) (IRR=4.1, 95% CI 1.0 to 16.8) were significant risk factors. In Midget, the more elite divisions were associated with a lower injury risk (A-IRR=0.2, 95% CI 0.1 to 0.5) (AAA-IRR=0.5, 95% CI 0.2 to 0.9). Injury rates were lower in this study than previously found in male youth and women's ice hockey populations. Previous injury and game play as risk factors are consistent with the literature. Menarche as a risk factor is a new finding in this study. This research will inform future studies of the development of injury prevention strategies in this population.

  18. Risk-free assets: Are they truly risk-free? A comparative study of South African rates and instruments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oosthuizen, A.V.

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Determining the price of a financial instrument is something that happens every day in the financial markets. Every price starts off with a spot price adjusted for interest until maturity of the particular instrument. The interest is usually described as risk-free interest. The price so determined is the most basic price that an investor is willing to pay if not risk is involved. Risk-free assets, then, are securities of which the future rates of return are known with certainty. An exceptional degree of confidence in the issuer of the security brings about this certainty. Risk-free assets are normally in the fixed income securities (capital markets investment category or in the liquid money market instruments such as treasury bills, category. This study attempts to determine whether the risk-free rates used by treasury managers and traders in South Africa to formulate their bond yield curves and which are used in valuation models, may be deemed risk-free. The study specifies certain criteria that an asset must satisfy in order to be used as a risk-free asset. Short term and long term South African instruments are compared to the US counterpart instruments, to gain an understanding of the South African instruments relative to the US ones. The behaviour of the risk-free instruments used in South Africa is also compared to the FTSE/JSE All Share Index and gold spot prices, which are perceived to be a risky asset classes. To gain some understanding of the behaviour of these instruments, analyses were done from different angles. The standard deviations of the daily percentage changes of the R157 were significantly lower than that of the ALSI and the gold spot price change. Compared to the ALSI and gold spot price, therefore, the R157 may be deemed a “low risk” instrument. The JIBAR was even less volatile that the R157. Interestingly, the US instruments were substantially more risky than the SA instruments over the analysis period. Also the JIBAR

  19. Rates and risk factors of injury in CrossFitTM: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Sebastian; Booker, Harry; Staines, Jacob; Williams, Sean

    2017-09-01

    CrossFitTM is a strength and conditioning program that has gained widespread popularity since its inception approximately 15 years ago. However, at present little is known about the level of injury risk associated with this form of training. Movement competency, assessed using the Functional Movement ScreenTM (FMS), has been identified as a risk factor for injury in numerous athletic populations, but its role in CrossFit participants is currently unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the level of injury risk associated with CrossFit training, and examine the influence of a number of potential risk factors (including movement competency). A cohort of 117 CrossFit participants were followed prospectively for 12 weeks. Participants' characteristics, previous injury history and training experience were recorded at baseline, and an FMS assessment was conducted. The overall injury incidence rate was 2.10 per 1000 training hours (90% confidence limits: 1.32-3.33). A multivariate Poisson regression model identified males (rate ratio [RR]: 4.44 ×/÷ 3.30, very likely harmful) and those with previous injuries (RR: 2.35 ×/÷ 2.37, likely harmful) as having a higher injury risk. Inferences relating to FMS variables were unclear in the multivariate model, although number of asymmetries was a clear risk factor in a univariate model (RR per two additional asymmetries: 2.62 ×/÷ 1.53, likely harmful). The injury incidence rate associated with CrossFit training was low, and comparable to other forms of recreational fitness activities. Previous injury and gender were identified as risk factors for injury, whilst the role of movement competency in this setting warrants further investigation.

  20. How Internal Political Efficacy Translates Political Knowledge Into Political Participation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Reichert

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This study presents evidence for the mediation effect of political knowledge through political self-efficacy (i.e. internal political efficacy in the prediction of political participation. It employs an action theoretic approach—by and large grounded on the Theory of Planned Behaviour—and uses data from the German Longitudinal Election Study to examine whether political knowledge has distinct direct effects on voting, conventional, and/or unconventional political participation. It argues that political knowledge raises internal political efficacy and thereby indirectly increases the chance that a citizen will participate in politics. The results of mediated multiple regression analyses yield evidence that political knowledge indeed translates into internal political efficacy, thus it affects political participation of various kinds indirectly. However, internal political efficacy and intentions to participate politically yield simultaneous direct effects only on conventional political participation. Sequentially mediated effects appear for voting and conventional political participation, with political knowledge being mediated by internal political efficacy and subsequently also by behavioural intentions. The mediation patterns for unconventional political participation are less clear though. The discussion accounts for restrictions of this study and points to questions for answer by future research.

  1. How Internal Political Efficacy Translates Political Knowledge Into Political Participation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichert, Frank

    2016-01-01

    This study presents evidence for the mediation effect of political knowledge through political self-efficacy (i.e. internal political efficacy) in the prediction of political participation. It employs an action theoretic approach—by and large grounded on the Theory of Planned Behaviour—and uses data from the German Longitudinal Election Study to examine whether political knowledge has distinct direct effects on voting, conventional, and/or unconventional political participation. It argues that political knowledge raises internal political efficacy and thereby indirectly increases the chance that a citizen will participate in politics. The results of mediated multiple regression analyses yield evidence that political knowledge indeed translates into internal political efficacy, thus it affects political participation of various kinds indirectly. However, internal political efficacy and intentions to participate politically yield simultaneous direct effects only on conventional political participation. Sequentially mediated effects appear for voting and conventional political participation, with political knowledge being mediated by internal political efficacy and subsequently also by behavioural intentions. The mediation patterns for unconventional political participation are less clear though. The discussion accounts for restrictions of this study and points to questions for answer by future research. PMID:27298633

  2. THE CHOSEN EXCHANGE RATE AS THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCING THE RISKS OF CURRENCY EXCHANGE TRANSACTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Attila Rozsa

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The profitability of the operation of an enterprise is influenced by several factors. Beside the evolution of market supply and demand the hectic changes in exchange rates have an increasingly important role too. Since the start of the economic crisis in the autumn of 2008, changes in the exchange rate have been more and more emphasized. The article deals with methods for decreasing exchange risks of foreign currency transactions, without the need of completeness. In international trade due to the growth of the number of currency loans the significance of managing financial risks coming from the changes in exchange rates has increased. One of the most obvious tools is properly selected currency.

  3. Data politics

    OpenAIRE

    Bigo, Didier; Isin, Engin; Ruppert, Evelyn

    2017-01-01

    The commentary raises political questions about the ways in which data has been constituted as an object vested withcertain powers, influence, and rationalities.We place the emergence and transformation of professional practices such as‘data science’, ‘data journalism’, ‘data brokerage’, ‘data mining’, ‘data storage’, and ‘data analysis’ as part of the reconfigurationof a series of fields of power and knowledge in the public and private accumulation of data. Data politics asksquestions about ...

  4. 'Grounded' Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Garbi

    2012-01-01

    A prominent strand within current migration research argues that, to understand the participation of immigrants in their host societies, we must focus on their incorporation into the cities in which they settle. This article narrows the perspective further by focusing on the role that immigrants...... play within one particular neighbourhood: Nørrebro in the Danish capital, Copenhagen. The article introduces the concept of grounded politics to analyse how groups of Muslim immigrants in Nørrebro use the space, relationships and history of the neighbourhood for identity political statements...

  5. Withdrawal rates as a consequence of disclosure of risk associated with manipulation of the cervical spine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Forrest Lianne

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The risk associated with cervical manipulation is controversial. Research in this area is widely variable but as yet the risk is not easily quantifiable. This presents a problem when informing the patient of risks when seeking consent and information may be withheld due to the fear of patient withdrawal from care. As yet, there is a lack of research into the frequency of risk disclosure and consequent withdrawal from manipulative treatment as a result. This study seeks to investigate the reality of this and to obtain insight into the attitudes of chiropractors towards informed consent and disclosure. Methods Questionnaires were posted to 200 UK chiropractors randomly selected from the register of the General Chiropractic Council. Results A response rate of 46% (n = 92 was achieved. Thirty-three per cent (n = 30 respondents were female and the mean number of years in practice was 10. Eighty-eight per cent considered explanation of the risks associated with any recommended treatment important when obtaining informed consent. However, only 45% indicated they always discuss this with patients in need of cervical manipulation. When asked whether they believed discussing the possibility of a serious adverse reaction to cervical manipulation could increase patient anxiety to the extent there was a strong possibility the patient would refuse treatment, 46% said they believed this could happen. Nonetheless, 80% said they believed they had a moral/ethical obligation to disclose risk associated with cervical manipulation despite these concerns. The estimated number of withdrawals throughout respondents' time in practice was estimated at 1 patient withdrawal for every 2 years in practice. Conclusion The withdrawal rate from cervical manipulation as a direct consequence of the disclosure of associated serious risks appears unfounded. However, notwithstanding legal obligations, reluctance to disclose risk due to fear of increasing patient

  6. Withdrawal rates as a consequence of disclosure of risk associated with manipulation of the cervical spine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langworthy, Jennifer M; Forrest, Lianne

    2010-10-26

    The risk associated with cervical manipulation is controversial. Research in this area is widely variable but as yet the risk is not easily quantifiable. This presents a problem when informing the patient of risks when seeking consent and information may be withheld due to the fear of patient withdrawal from care. As yet, there is a lack of research into the frequency of risk disclosure and consequent withdrawal from manipulative treatment as a result. This study seeks to investigate the reality of this and to obtain insight into the attitudes of chiropractors towards informed consent and disclosure. Questionnaires were posted to 200 UK chiropractors randomly selected from the register of the General Chiropractic Council. A response rate of 46% (n = 92) was achieved. Thirty-three per cent (n = 30) respondents were female and the mean number of years in practice was 10. Eighty-eight per cent considered explanation of the risks associated with any recommended treatment important when obtaining informed consent. However, only 45% indicated they always discuss this with patients in need of cervical manipulation. When asked whether they believed discussing the possibility of a serious adverse reaction to cervical manipulation could increase patient anxiety to the extent there was a strong possibility the patient would refuse treatment, 46% said they believed this could happen. Nonetheless, 80% said they believed they had a moral/ethical obligation to disclose risk associated with cervical manipulation despite these concerns. The estimated number of withdrawals throughout respondents' time in practice was estimated at 1 patient withdrawal for every 2 years in practice. The withdrawal rate from cervical manipulation as a direct consequence of the disclosure of associated serious risks appears unfounded. However, notwithstanding legal obligations, reluctance to disclose risk due to fear of increasing patient anxiety still remains, despite acknowledgement of moral and

  7. The Impact of Urethral Risk Factors on Transcorporeal Artificial Urinary Sphincter Erosion Rates and Device Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mock, Stephen; Dmochowski, Roger R; Brown, Elizabeth T; Reynolds, W Stuart; Kaufman, Melissa R; Milam, Douglas F

    2015-12-01

    We report the impact of urethral risk factors on erosion rates and device survival outcomes after transcorporeal artificial urinary sphincter placement. We performed a retrospective analysis of all transcorporeal artificial urinary sphincters placed at a single institution between January 2000 and May 2014. We assessed patient demographic, comorbid diseases and surgical characteristics for risk factors considered poor for device survival. Risk factors were compared to postoperative complications requiring explantation, including cuff erosion, infection and device revision. A total of 37 transcorporeal artificial urinary sphincters were placed in 35 men. Placement was performed as a primary procedure in 21 of 37 cases (56.8%) and as salvage in the remainder. In this transcorporeal population there were 7 explantations (18.9%) due to erosion in 4 cases, cuff downsizing in 2 and infection in 1. Median followup from implantation to last followup was 8.5 months (range 0.9 to 63). Median time from artificial urinary sphincter placement to explantation was 17.3 months (range 0.9 to 63) and time specifically to transcorporeal erosion was 7.4 months (range 0.9 to 26). On univariate analysis no parameters were associated with sphincter cuff erosion but a history of an inflatable penile prosthesis was associated with a higher device explantation rate (60% vs 12.5%, p=0.04). No associations were revealed on multivariate logistic analysis. All 4 cuff erosion cases demonstrated greater than 2 urethral risk factors, including prior radiation therapy in all. The probability of cuff erosion in patients with 2 or more urethral risk factors was 1.65 times the probability of erosion in those with 0 or 1 urethral risk factor (95% CI 1.3, 2.2). The proportion of patients free of erosion at 35 months was 100% in those with 0 or 1 urethral risk factor and 64% in those with 2 or more risk factors (log rank test p=0.00). Similarly the proportion of patients free of explantation at 35 months

  8. Freight-train derailment rates for railroad safety and risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiang; Rapik Saat, M; Barkan, Christopher P L

    2017-01-01

    Derailments are the most common type of train accident in the United States. They cause damage to infrastructure, rolling stock and lading, disrupt service, and have the potential to cause casualties, and harm the environment. Train safety and risk analysis relies on accurate assessment of derailment likelihood. Derailment rate - the number of derailments normalized by traffic exposure - is a useful statistic to estimate the likelihood of a derailment. Despite its importance, derailment rate analysis using multiple factors has not been previously developed. In this paper, we present an analysis of derailment rates on Class I railroad mainlines based on data from the U.S. Federal Railroad Administration and the major freight railroads. The point estimator and confidence interval of train and car derailment rates are developed by FRA track class, method of operation and annual traffic density. The analysis shows that signaled track with higher FRA track class and higher traffic density is associated with a lower derailment rate. The new accident rates have important implications for safety and risk management decisions, such as the routing of hazardous materials. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Avoiding Conflict Relapse Through Inclusive Political Settlements ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Existing evidence shows that the failure to focus on political settlements can increase the risk of peace agreements failing, power-sharing arrangements being contested, and states relapsing into conflict. It is clear that political settlements matter, but we are only beginning to understand the shape of political settlements that ...

  10. Trend of Stillbirth Rates and the Associated Risk Factors in Babol, Northern Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karimollah Hajian-Tilaki

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Stillbirth is an important public health concern and its rate indicates the sanitary development of society. The purpose of this study is to determine the trend of stillbirth rates and its risk factors in Babol. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted based on the data of hospital charts of two major Gynecological wards in Shahid Yahyanejat and Babol clinic hospitals in Babol, Northern Iran. In the first phase, the frequencies of stillbirths and live birth deliveries were collected for the period of 1999-2008. In the second phase, a case-control study of 150 stillbirths cases and 300 live births as controls was conducted. The risk factors data included maternal age, gestational age, gravity, history of stillbirth, abortion, diabetes mellitus, preeclampsia, fetal sex, residence area, birth interval and prenatal care. The odds ratio for risk factors with 95% confidence interval for stillbirths was calculated using the logistic regression model. Results: Stillbirth rate was reduced significantly from 10.51 in 1999 to 8.57 per 1000 deliveries in 2008 (p=0.001. A significant association was found between preterm delivery (p=0.001 and preeclampsia (p=0.01 with stillbirths. Although the proportion of stillbirths was higher among mothers with history of diabetes, abortion and maternal age of more than 35 years, the odds ratio was not statistically significant. Conclusion: There is a relationship between stillbirth, preterm delivery and preeclampsia. Thus, we can considerably prevent stillbirths with sanitary remedial interference on these risk factors.

  11. Evaluation of preoperative risk factors and complication rates in cosmetic breast surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanemann, Michael S; Grotting, James C

    2010-05-01

    To assess the relationships between body mass index, smoking, and diabetes and postoperative complications after cosmetic breast surgery, based on patient claims made to CosmetAssure, a program which provides coverage for treatment of significant complications, which might not be reimbursed by patients' health insurance carriers. Complication rates of cosmetic breast operations were reviewed from 13,475 consecutive patients between April 1, 2008 and March 31, 2009. Correlations between complication rates and risk factors of body mass index > or =30, smoking, and diabetes were analyzed. Because this insurance program reimburses patients for costs associated with the treatment of postsurgical complications, physicians are incentivized to report significant complications. A "significant" complication is defined as a postsurgical problem, occurring within 30 days of the procedure that requires admission to a hospital, emergency room, or surgery center. Minor complications that were treated in the outpatient setting are not included, as their treatment did not generate an insurance claim. According to patient claims data between April 1, 2008 and March 31, 2009, the overall complication rate for cosmetic breast surgery was 1.8%. Obese patients (body mass index > or = 30) undergoing breast augmentation and augmentation mastopexy demonstrated higher complication rates than nonobese patients. Patients with diabetes undergoing augmentation mastopexy experienced higher complication rates than nondiabetics. Data collection is ongoing, and as the number of cases increases (approximately 1300 new cosmetic breast surgeries per month), multiple other trends in this study will likely achieve statistical significance. Analysis of CosmetAssure data can accurately and objectively track the rate of significant postoperative complications secondary to cosmetic surgical procedures. As the number of risk factors increase, the risk of complications increases. Cosmetic breast surgery is

  12. Prospect theory and political decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vis, B.

    2011-01-01

    Risk is a central feature of political decision making. Prospect theory, an empirically correct theory of choice under risk that deals precisely with this condition, therefore seems to have much to offer political science. Prospect theory's central finding is that individuals' attitude toward risk

  13. Asymmetry and Risk Premia in the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Ganem

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The risk premium in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates is partially driven by some specific defensive behavior following past monetary decisions. Until 2008, the Brazilian Central Bank has primarily dealt with domestic and external crises by raising the short term rate to restrain capital outflows, generating a well-known asymmetry in the market’s response functions to risk aversion. Therefore, the traditional parameterization of risk based on mean and variance estimators fails to capture the market price of risk eventually assigned to higher order moments of bond returns across several maturities. In this paper we propose an arbitrage-free, discrete-time model that provides the form for a lagged endogenous regression which tests the significance and magnitude of the market price of asymmetry in the Brazilian fixed income market. The results are analyzed from a historical perspective, comparing the evolution of the price of asymmetry, the improvement of Brazil’s sovereign risk and the monetary policy conduction from 2003 to 2009.

  14. High heart rate: more than a risk factor. Lessons from a clinical practice survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrios, Vivencio; Escobar, Carlos; Bertomeu, Vicente; Murga, Nekane; de Pablo, Carmen; Asín, Enrique

    2009-11-12

    Several epidemiological studies have reported that an elevated heart rate (HR) is associated with coronary atherosclerosis independently of other risk factors. Nevertheless, it is still unclear whether HR is itself the cause or there is merely an association between HR and mortality in this population. A total of 1686 patients with hypertension and chronic ischemic heart disease were included in this study. According to the resting HR, the patients were distributed in 3 groups (group 1: HR82 bpm). 580 patients (34.4%) belonged to group 1; 936 (55.5%) to group 2 and 170 (10.1%) to group 3. Patients with high HR exhibited a poorer prognosis not only due to a worse clinical profile (more concomitant cardiovascular risk factors and organ damage), but suggestively because despite the use of a similar number of drugs, patients with higher HR were associated with lesser risk control rates in daily clinical practice. Despite current guidelines that do not still recognize HR as a cardiovascular risk factor, it appears that physicians should pay more attention to it in clinical practice since high HR is warning about an increased risk.

  15. [Morbidity rate of obesity in children in ukraine. Overweight as noncontagious disease risk factor].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Заболотна, Ірина Е

    The upsurge of prevalence rate of obesity and overweight that in the majority of cases traces back to childhood is a risk factor of the most common noncontagious diseases in adults. The aim was to analyze prevalence of obesity in children in Ukraine and to conduct the pilot study of medical condition of overweight children. Official state statistics of prevalence rate of obesity in kids and screening data of anthropometric characteristics, arterial tension levels, physical performance decrement and medical condition of children (boys - 50, girls - 90, average age - 15,1±0,1 years) was used in research. Data calculation performed by Statistica v. 6.0 software. Over the past few decades, the morbidity rate of obesity in children in Ukraine has greatly increased, especially in year class 15-17. Insufficient diagnosis of obesity in children is the consequence of the inadequacy of the existing system of preventive care and monitoring survey of decease risk factors. Children with body mass index (BMI) above normal have a risk of work decrement in 5,2 times (odds ratio, OR=5,2, CI95%: 1,7-10,6). Such children have higher risk of development of the diseases of the respiratory system (OR=8,1; CI95%: 3,9-13,6) and allergic dermatitis (OR=7,7; CI95%: 3,7-12,9). The odds ratio of arterial hypertension in such children is equal to 3,46±0,3 (95%CI: 2,0-5,9). According to prediction calculations, the situation with the increase of prevalence rate of obesity in children in Ukraine is unfavorable. The introduction of measures aimed at finding children with obesity, their registration and monitoring of patients' health with due regard to decease risk factors at the primary care level would conduce to improving prevention of obesity and prevention of alimentary diseases progression.

  16. Politics 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslow, Abraham

    1977-01-01

    This article expresses some last thoughts from Abraham Maslow on his vision of humanistic psychology. He suggests that the two main problems of creating the good person and the good society are interwoven inextricably. He gives some social and political mechanisms which would enhance desirable personal growth and considers the main tasks of…

  17. Political bugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, W. R.

    1972-01-01

    Certain decisions, problems, and successes are selected to recall the great impact of the 1950s on the history of rocketry, and particularly the inauguration of the space age. In reviewing the history of the Redstone, Juno, and Jupiter, some of the largest stepping stones to space, problems stand out in three areas: technical or engineering, management, and political.

  18. Political polarization

    OpenAIRE

    Dixit, Avinash K.; Weibull, Jörgen W.

    2007-01-01

    Failures of government policies often provoke opposite reactions from citizens; some call for a reversal of the policy, whereas others favor its continuation in stronger form. We offer an explanation of such polarization, based on a natural bimodality of preferences in political and economic contexts and consistent with Bayesian rationality.

  19. Political polarization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixit, Avinash K; Weibull, Jörgen W

    2007-05-01

    Failures of government policies often provoke opposite reactions from citizens; some call for a reversal of the policy, whereas others favor its continuation in stronger form. We offer an explanation of such polarization, based on a natural bimodality of preferences in political and economic contexts and consistent with Bayesian rationality.

  20. Framing politics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lecheler, S.K.

    2010-01-01

    This dissertation supplies a number of research findings that add to a theory of news framing effects, and also to the understanding of the role media effects play in political communication. We show that researchers must think more about what actually constitutes a framing effect, and that a

  1. Political Rationality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solhaug, Trond; Kristensen, Niels Nørgaard

    The very idea about democracies is public participation in elections, decision-making and/or public engagement. The democratic participation distributes power among ordinary people and serve to legitimize decisions in public affairs and is a vital characteristic of a political culture.”The term ’...

  2. Injury rates and injury risk factors among federal bureau of investigation new agent trainees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knapik Joseph J

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A one-year prospective examination of injury rates and injury risk factors was conducted in Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI new agent training. Methods Injury incidents were obtained from medical records and injury compensation forms. Potential injury risk factors were acquired from a lifestyle questionnaire and existing data at the FBI Academy. Results A total of 426 men and 105 women participated in the project. Thirty-five percent of men and 42% of women experienced one or more injuries during training. The injury incidence rate was 2.5 and 3.2 injuries/1,000 person-days for men and women, respectively (risk ratio (women/men = 1.3, 95% confidence interval = 0.9-1.7. The activities most commonly associated with injuries (% of total were defensive tactics training (58%, physical fitness training (20%, physical fitness testing (5%, and firearms training (3%. Among the men, higher injury risk was associated with older age, slower 300-meter sprint time, slower 1.5-mile run time, lower total points on the physical fitness test (PFT, lower self-rated physical activity, lower frequency of aerobic exercise, a prior upper or lower limb injury, and prior foot or knee pain that limited activity. Among the women higher injury risk was associated with slower 300-meter sprint time, slower 1.5-mile run time, lower total points on the PFT, and prior back pain that limited activity. Conclusion The results of this investigation supported those of a previous retrospective investigation emphasizing that lower fitness and self-reported pain limiting activity were associated with higher injury risk among FBI new agents.

  3. University men's ice hockey: rates and risk of injuries over 6-years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rishiraj, N; Lloyd-Smith, R; Lorenz, T; Niven, B; Michel, M

    2009-06-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the injury rates of a Men's Varsity Ice Hockey team over six-years. Data on ice hockey injury rates and profile continue to increase in the hope of assisting with injury prevention. The University of British Columbia Men's Varsity team has been followed prospectively over a six-year period. All student-athletes completed a preseason medical examinations and physiological assessments. The team physician evaluated each injury and the team therapist completed the injury report forms and the attendance records for each player. A total of 46215 player exposures were recorded. The combined injury rate was 3.70 injuries/1000 player game and practice exposures. A statistically significantly higher risk of injury was observed during games and the greatest risk of injury was observed during the second period. Forwards sustained greater percentage of injuries compared to defensemen and goalies. Sprains and strains accounted for 40% of all injuries, followed by concussions (13%). Non-contact injuries were most common, while the anatomy sustaining the most injuries was the head/neck/face region. A high percentage of the recorded injuries required less than seven days to return to full activity. The risk of injury for university ice hockey players is greater during games and is dependant on playing position. Players are prone to sprains and strains, which may not involve any contact. Concussion and knee joint injury rates continue to cause concern.

  4. Low-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Versus Cryotherapy in Low- and Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gestaut, Matthew M., E-mail: Matthew.Gestaut@BSWHealth.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Baylor Scott and White Memorial Hospital, Texas A& M University School of Medicine, Temple, Texas (United States); Cai, Wendi [Department of Biostatistics, Baylor Scott and White Health, Temple, Texas (United States); Vyas, Shilpa [Department of Radiation Oncology, Swedish Cancer Institute, Seattle, Washington (United States); Patel, Belur J. [Department of Urology, Baylor Scott and White Memorial Hospital, Texas A& M University School of Medicine, Temple, Texas (United States); Hasan, Salman A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Baylor Scott and White Memorial Hospital, Texas A& M University School of Medicine, Temple, Texas (United States); MunozMaldonado, Yolanda [Department of Biostatistics, Baylor Scott and White Health, Temple, Texas (United States); Deb, Niloyjyoti; Swanson, Gregory [Department of Radiation Oncology, Baylor Scott and White Memorial Hospital, Texas A& M University School of Medicine, Temple, Texas (United States)

    2017-05-01

    Purpose: Cryotherapy and brachytherapy are definitive local treatment options for low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. There are both prospective and retrospective data for brachytherapy, but the use of cryotherapy has been limited primarily to single-institution retrospective studies. Currently, no published evidence has compared low-dose-rate brachytherapy versus cryotherapy. Methods and Materials: Institutional review board approval was obtained to conduct a retrospective chart review of consecutive patients treated at our institution from 1990 to 2012. For inclusion, patients must have received a prostate cancer diagnosis and have been considered to have low- to intermediate-risk disease according to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network criteria. All patients received brachytherapy or cryotherapy treatment. Disease specifics and failure details were collected for all patients. Failure was defined as prostate-specific antigen nadir +2 ng/mL. Results: A total of 359 patients were analyzed. The groups comprised 50 low-risk cryotherapy (LRC), 92 intermediate-risk cryotherapy (IRC), 133 low-risk brachytherapy (LRB), and 84 intermediate-risk brachytherapy (IRB) patients. The median prostate-specific antigen follow-up periods were 85.6 months (LRC), 59.2 months (IRC), 74.9 months (LRB), and 59.8 months (IRB). The 5-year biochemical progression–free survival (bPFS) rate was 57.9% in the cryotherapy group versus 89.6% in the brachytherapy group (P<.0001). The 5-year bPFS rate was 70.0% (LRC), 51.4% (IRC), 89.4% (LRB), and 89.7% (IRB). The bPFS rate was significantly different between brachytherapy and cryotherapy for low- and intermediate-risk groups (P<.05). The mean nadir temperature reached for cryotherapy patients was −35°C (range, −96°C to −6°C). Cryotherapy used a median of 2 freeze-thaw cycles (range, 2-4 freeze-thaw cycles). Conclusions: Results from this study suggest that cryotherapy is inferior to brachytherapy for patients with

  5. Low-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Versus Cryotherapy in Low- and Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gestaut, Matthew M.; Cai, Wendi; Vyas, Shilpa; Patel, Belur J.; Hasan, Salman A.; MunozMaldonado, Yolanda; Deb, Niloyjyoti; Swanson, Gregory

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: Cryotherapy and brachytherapy are definitive local treatment options for low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. There are both prospective and retrospective data for brachytherapy, but the use of cryotherapy has been limited primarily to single-institution retrospective studies. Currently, no published evidence has compared low-dose-rate brachytherapy versus cryotherapy. Methods and Materials: Institutional review board approval was obtained to conduct a retrospective chart review of consecutive patients treated at our institution from 1990 to 2012. For inclusion, patients must have received a prostate cancer diagnosis and have been considered to have low- to intermediate-risk disease according to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network criteria. All patients received brachytherapy or cryotherapy treatment. Disease specifics and failure details were collected for all patients. Failure was defined as prostate-specific antigen nadir +2 ng/mL. Results: A total of 359 patients were analyzed. The groups comprised 50 low-risk cryotherapy (LRC), 92 intermediate-risk cryotherapy (IRC), 133 low-risk brachytherapy (LRB), and 84 intermediate-risk brachytherapy (IRB) patients. The median prostate-specific antigen follow-up periods were 85.6 months (LRC), 59.2 months (IRC), 74.9 months (LRB), and 59.8 months (IRB). The 5-year biochemical progression–free survival (bPFS) rate was 57.9% in the cryotherapy group versus 89.6% in the brachytherapy group (P<.0001). The 5-year bPFS rate was 70.0% (LRC), 51.4% (IRC), 89.4% (LRB), and 89.7% (IRB). The bPFS rate was significantly different between brachytherapy and cryotherapy for low- and intermediate-risk groups (P<.05). The mean nadir temperature reached for cryotherapy patients was −35°C (range, −96°C to −6°C). Cryotherapy used a median of 2 freeze-thaw cycles (range, 2-4 freeze-thaw cycles). Conclusions: Results from this study suggest that cryotherapy is inferior to brachytherapy for patients with

  6. A Political, Economic, Social, Technology, Legal and Environmental (PESTLE Approach for Risk Identification of the Tidal Industry in the United Kingdom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athanasios Kolios

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of renewable and especially tidal energy through a political, economic, social, technology, legal and environmental (PESTLE analysis approach and by reviewing the most up to date relevant literature. The study focuses on the United Kingdom given the favourable environmental resources for such technologies; the number of different design concepts that are currently under development as well as the research funding that has been invested over the last few years. Findings of the analysis identify the risks and multiple stakeholders involved at all stages of the tidal energy projects development from the conceptualization of the design, right through to decommissioning. Many of the stakeholders present benefits to the tidal developers through funding, incentives and knowledge sharing, but at the same time they also present potential risks to the future of projects. This is mostly down to different approaches of the most important aspect of tidal energy that needs to be considered, making it hard for technologists and developers to equally address all requirements. From this research it can be concluded that several of these risks can be mitigated early on providing that particular stakeholders are involved at the correct stage of a project.

  7. Political Efficacy and Participation of Nurse Practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Rourke, Nancy C; Crawford, Sybil L; Morris, Nancy S; Pulcini, Joyce

    2017-08-01

    Twenty-eight states have laws and regulations limiting the ability of nurse practitioners (NPs) to practice to the full extent of their education and training, thereby preventing patients from fully accessing NP services. Revisions to state laws and regulations require NPs to engage in the political process. Understanding the political engagement of NPs may facilitate the efforts of nurse leaders and nursing organizations to promote change in state rules and regulations. The purpose of this study was to describe the political efficacy and political participation of U.S. NPs and gain insight into factors associated with political interest and engagement. In the fall of 2015, we mailed a survey to 2,020 NPs randomly chosen from the American Academy of Nurse Practitioners' database and 632 responded (31% response rate). Participants completed the Trust in Government (external political efficacy) and the Political Efficacy (internal political efficacy) scales, and a demographic form. Overall, NPs have low political efficacy. Older age ( p≤.001), health policy mentoring ( p≤.001), and specific education on health policy ( p≤.001) were all positively associated with internal political efficacy and political participation. External political efficacy was not significantly associated with any of the study variables. Political activities of NPs are largely limited to voting and contacting legislators. Identifying factors that engage NPs in grassroots political activities and the broader political arena is warranted, particularly with current initiatives to make changes to state laws and regulations that limit their practice.

  8. The Politics of Political Correctness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minsky, Leonard

    1992-01-01

    This article reacts to President Bush's entry into the dispute over "political correctness" on college campuses. The paper summarizes discussions of students, faculty, and others in the Washington, D.C. area which concluded that this seeming defense of free speech is actually an attack on affirmative action and multiculturalism stemming…

  9. Self reported rates of criminal offending and victimization in young people at-risk for psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purcell, R; Harrigan, S; Glozier, N; Amminger, G P; Yung, A R

    2015-08-01

    A significant relationship exists between experiencing psychosis and both engaging in criminal offending and being a victim of crime. A substantial proportion of violence and offending occurs during the first episode of psychosis, but it is unclear whether such behaviour is also evident in the earlier pre-psychotic stage of illness. As part of a prospective study of young people who were seeking help for mental health problems, we enquired about participants' experiences of being charged and/or convicted of a criminal offence and being a victim of crime. This paper uses cross-sectional baseline data to compare the rates of these forensic outcomes in participants at-risk of psychosis (n=271) with those not at-risk (n=440). Univariate logistic regression showed that the at-risk for psychosis group was significantly more likely than the not at-risk participants to report having been charged by police (11.1% vs 5.9%; p=.015) and convicted by the courts (4.4% vs. 1.6%; p=0.028) with a non-violent offence, as well as to have been convicted of any criminal offence (6.3% vs. 3.0%; p=0.037). The at-risk were also more likely to report having been a victim of crime (23.7% vs 14.0%; p=.002), particularly violent victimization (16.5% vs 8.2%; p=.001). In multivariate logistic regression analyses, being at-risk for psychosis remained a significant predictor of three of the four outcome measures after controlling for other known covariates such as gender, age, substance misuse and unemployment. This is the first study to demonstrate that, relative to their non-psychotic help-seeking counterparts, young people at-risk for psychosis are at higher risk of forensic outcomes, particularly violent crime victimization. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Stroke subtypes, risk factors and mortality rate in northwest of Iran

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farhoudi, Mehdi; Mehrvar, Kaveh; Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun

    2017-01-01

    data, risk factors, types and mortality. Methods: A retrospective study was done in two university tertiary referral hospitals in Tabriz, northwest of Iran, from March 2008 to April 2013. Patients diagnosed with stroke were enrolled in the study. Demographic data, stroke subtypes, duration...... of hospitalization, stroke risk factors and hospital mortality rate were recorded for all the patients. Results: A total number of 5355 patients were evaluated in the present study. Mean age of the patients was 67.5 ± 13.8 years, and 50.6% were men. Final diagnosis of ischemic stroke was made in 76.......5% of the patients, intra-cerebral hemorrhage (ICH) with or without intra-ventricular hemorrhage (IVH) in 14.3% and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) in 9.2%. Stroke risk factors among the patients were hypertension in 68.8% of the patients, diabetes mellitus (DM) in 23.9%, smoking in 12.6% and ischemic heart diseases...

  11. Effects of the Interest Rate and Reserve Requirement Ratio on Bank Risk in China: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongyuan Geng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper applies the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR model to simulate the effects of the interest rate and reserve requirement ratio on bank risk in China. The results reveal the nonlinearity embedded in the interest rate, reserve requirement ratio, and bank risk nexus. Both the interest rate and reserve requirement ratio exert a positive impact on bank risk for the low regime and a negative impact for the high regime. The interest rate performs a significant effect while the reserve requirement ratio shows an insignificant effect on bank risk on a statistical basis for both the high and low regimes.

  12. Quantification of Gains and Risks of Static Thermal Rating Based on Typical Meteorological Year

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Heckenbergerová, Jana; Musílek, P.; Filimonenkov, K.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 44, č. 1 (2013), s. 227-235 ISSN 0142-0615 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12009 Grant - others:GA AV ČR(CZ) M100300904 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : Overhead power transmission lines * Conductor ampacity * Probabilistic static thermal rating * Typical meteorological year * Risk tolerance * Energy throughput Subject RIV: JE - Non-nuclear Energetics, Energy Consumption ; Use Impact factor: 3.432, year: 2012

  13. Associations between heart rate variability, metabolic syndrome risk factors, and insulin resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuckey, Melanie I; Kiviniemi, Antti; Gill, Dawn P; Shoemaker, J Kevin; Petrella, Robert J

    2015-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine differences in heart rate variability (HRV) in metabolic syndrome (MetS) and to determine associations between HRV parameters, MetS risk factors, and insulin resistance (homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR)). Participants (n = 220; aged 23-70 years) were assessed for MetS risk factors (waist circumference, blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, triglycerides, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) and 5-min supine HRV (time and frequency domain and nonlinear). HRV was compared between those with 3 or more (MetS+) and those with 2 or fewer MetS risk factors (MetS-). Multiple linear regression models were built for each HRV parameter to investigate associations with MetS risk factors and HOMA-IR. Data with normal distribution are presented as means ± SD and those without as median [interquartile range]. In women, standard deviation of R-R intervals 38.0 [27.0] ms, 44.5 [29.3] ms; p = 0.020), low-frequency power (5.73 ± 1.06 ln ms(2), 6.13 ± 1.05 ln ms(2); p = 0.022), and the standard deviation of the length of the Poincaré plot (46.8 [31.6] ms, 58.4 [29.9] ms; p = 0.014) were lower and heart rate was higher (68 [13] beats/min, 64 [12] beats/min; p = 0. 018) in MetS+ compared with MetS-, with no differences in men. Waist circumference was most commonly associated with HRV, especially frequency domain parameters. HOMA-IR was associated with heart rate. In conclusion, MetS+ women had a less favourable HRV profile than MetS- women, but there were no differences in men. HOMA-IR was associated with heart rate, not HRV.

  14. Aqueous Drainage Device Erosion: A Review of Rates, Risks, Prevention, and Repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bains, Upneet; Hoguet, Ambika

    2018-01-01

    Aqueous drainage device tube erosions require prompt intervention to prevent endophthalmitis. As the use of drainage devices in glaucoma surgery continues to increase, recognizing and managing tube erosions is a pertinent issue. This review provides a comprehensive overview of tube erosions, including the rates of erosion with various types of patch grafts, the risk factors associated with erosion, and approaches to repair in order to counsel and treat our patients to prevent endophthalmitis.

  15. A nationwide survey of incidence rates and risk factors of inguinal hernia in preterm children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yu-Wei; Pan, Mei-Lien; Hsu, Yao-Jen; Chin, Tai-Wai

    2018-01-01

    Clinical observations showed a higher incidence rate of inguinal hernia (IH) in preterm infants. In this study, we calculated the incidence rate of preterm IH from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) of Taiwan. From NHIRD, 92,308 subjects born in the year of 1997-2005 were randomly selected as the study cohort. The medical claims of these subjects from birth to 6th year of age were analyzed. Preterm births were defined using ICD code 765.1*. Risk factors such as birth weight, lung disorders, and ventilator supports before IH repairs were investigated. The risk of incarceration and bowel resection were also evaluated. From 92,308 subjects, 2560 preterm births were identified. IH was repaired in 231 preterm (9.02%) and 3650 term subjects (4.07%). Male (preterm 13.3% and non-preterm 6.3%) had more hernia repairs than female (preterm 3.8% and non-preterm 1.6%). The incidence rate of IH is 13.7% for those under 1500 g, 8.2% for those 1500-1999 g, 7.7% for those 2000-2499 g, and 6.3% for those above 2500 g. The incidence rate of IH in preterms with past history of lung disorders and ventilation supports is 8.7 and 13.6%, respectively. There was no significant difference in the incidences of incarceration and bowel resection between preterms and non-preterms. Birth weight under 2500 g is a significant risk factor for IH repairs. Other risk factors are male gender, past history of lung diseases, and ventilator supports.

  16. Risk-rating systems for mature red fir and white fir in northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    George T. Ferrell

    1980-01-01

    On the basis of crown and bole characteristics, risk-rating systems to predict the probability that a tree will die within 5 years were developed for mature red fir and white fir in northern California. The systems apply to firs at least 10 inches (25.4 cm) in diameter-at-breast-height (d.b.h.), growing in mature stands, with the original overstory at least partially...

  17. Tobacco, Alcohol, and Other Risk Behaviors in Film: How Well Do MPAA Ratings Distinguish Content?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tickle, Jennifer J.; Beach, Michael L.; Dalton, Madeline L.

    2009-01-01

    To evaluate the usefulness of MPAA ratings for parental selection of appropriate films for children, the 100 top grossing movies each year from 1996 through 2004 (N=900) were content analyzed to measure risk behaviors in each film. More restrictive MPAA ratings (R and PG-13) were associated with increased mean seconds of portrayals of tobacco use, alcohol use, and sexual content; increased frequency of violent content; and increased salience of drug use. However, MPAA ratings did not clearly distinguish films based on tobacco or alcohol use. Fifty percent of R-rated movies contained 124 seconds or more of tobacco use, comparable to 26% of PG-13 and 17% of PG movies. Fifty percent of R-rated movies contained 162 seconds or more of alcohol use, comparable to 49% of PG-13 and 25% of PG movies. Because of the high degree of overlap in alcohol and tobacco content between rating categories, the MPAA rating system, as currently defined, is not adequate for parents who wish to limit their children’s exposure to tobacco or alcohol content in movies. PMID:20029709

  18. Work-related violence against educators in Minnesota: rates and risks based on hours exposed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Chia; Gerberich, Susan G; Alexander, Bruce H; Ryan, Andy D; Nachreiner, Nancy M; Mongin, Steve J

    2013-02-01

    Violence is a major occupational problem; yet, rigorous studies focused on educators to address this problem are limited. The objective was to identify educators' potential risks for physical assault (PA) and nonphysical violence (NPV), based on hours exposed. A total of 4,731 licensed kindergarten through grade 12 Minnesota educators, identified from the Minnesota Department of Education database, participated. Specially designed mailed questionnaires (12-month recall) enabled data collection. Calculated PA and NPV rates, per 100,000 working hours, used Poisson regression. Directed acyclic graphs identified confounders for multivariable analysis, adjusted for non-response and unknown eligibility. The total PA rate was 5.3; PA risks increased for educators who: were non-married versus married; held master's degrees, or education specialist degrees, versus associate/bachelor's degrees; worked in public alternative and various school types, versus public schools; worked as social workers, in special education or multiple activities, versus standard classroom teaching; worked with risks for NPV included: 30-39 and 60-79, versus 50-59years of age; non-married versus married; working in public alternative versus public schools; working part-time or substitute, versus full-time; teaching in special education or multiple activities, versus standard classroom teaching; teaching in class sizes risks for violence against educators, based on hours worked. In addition, they provided a basis for further investigations to reduce violence against educators in the school environment. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Analytical Hierarchy Process for Developing a Building Performance-Risk Rating Tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khalil Natasha

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The need to optimize the performance of buildings has increased consequently due to the expansive supply of facilities in higher education building (HEB. Proper performance assessment as a proactive measure may help university building in achieving performance optimization. However, the current maintenance programs or performance evaluation in the HEB is a systemic and cyclic process where maintenance is considered as an operational issue and not as opposed to a strategic issue. Hence, this paper proposed a Building Performance Risk Rating Tool (BPRT as an improved measure for building performance evaluation by addressing the users' risk in health and safety aspects. The BPRT is developed from the result of a rating index using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP method. 12 facilities management (FM experts and practitioners were involved in the rating process. The subjective weightings are analysed using the AHP computer software, the Expert Choice 11. The establishment of the BPRT was introduced as an aid of improvement towards the current performance assessment of HEB by emerging the concept of building performance and risk into a numerical strategic approach

  20. Low mortality rates after endovascular aortic repair expand use to high-risk patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adkar, Shaunak S; Turner, Megan C; Leraas, Harold J; Gilmore, Brian F; Nag, Uttara; Turley, Ryan S; Shortell, Cynthia K; Mureebe, Leila

    2018-02-01

    The 2010 endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) trial 2 (EVAR 2) reported that patients with comorbidity profiles rendering them unfit for open aneurysm repair who underwent EVAR did not experience a survival advantage compared with those who did not undergo intervention. These patients experienced a 30-day mortality of 7.3%, whereas reports from similar cohorts reported far lower mortality rates. The primary objective of our study was to compare the incidence of 30-day mortality in low- and high-risk patients undergoing EVAR in a contemporary data set, using patient risk stratification criteria from EVAR 2. Secondarily, we sought to identify risk factors associated with a disproportionate contribution to 30-day mortality risk. Data were obtained from the 2005 to 2013 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Participant Use Data Files (N = 24,813). Patients were included in the high-risk cohort with the presence of renal, respiratory, or cardiac preoperative criteria alone or in combination. Renal impairment criteria were defined as dialysis and creatinine concentration >2.26 mg/dL. Respiratory impairment criteria included history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and preoperative ventilator support. Cardiac impairment criteria included history of myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, angina, and prior coronary intervention. Patient and procedural characteristics and 30-day postoperative outcomes were compared using Pearson χ 2 tests for categorical variables and Wilcoxon rank sum tests for continuous variables. Among 24,813 patients undergoing EVAR, 12,043 (48%) patients were characterized as high risk (at least one impairment criterion); 12,770 (52%) patients were stratified as low risk. The 30-day mortality rate was 1.9% in the high-risk cohort compared with the 7.3% reported by EVAR 2, and it was higher in the high-risk cohort compared with the low-risk cohort (1.9% vs 0.9%; P < .001). Whereas the

  1. Gendered Politics

    OpenAIRE

    Luconi, Stefano

    2016-01-01

    Political incorporation resulting from voter participation is often a relevant feature of the migration experience. When the legislation of the receiving nations enables the newcomers to get naturalized and grants citizenship to their children born in the adoptive country by means of the jus soli, as is the case of the United States, casting ballots in the elections of the land of their destination usually becomes part of the first and second-generation immigrants’ accommodation into the host...

  2. Analyse of the prevalence rate and risk factors of pulmonary embolism in the patients with dyspnea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Yanxia; Su Jian; Wang Bingsheng; Wu Songhong; Dai Ruiting; Cao Caixia

    2005-01-01

    Objective: To analyse the prevalence rate and risk factors of pulmonary embolism (PE) in patients with dyspnea and to explore the predisposing causes and its early clinical manifestations. Methods: Retrospective analysis was done in 461 patients with dyspnea performed 99 Tc m -macroaggregated albumin (MAA) lung perfusion imaging and 99 Tc m -DTPA ventilation imaging or 99 Tc m -MAA perfusion imaging and chest X-ray examination. Among them, 48 cases without apparent disease were considered as control group, whereas the remaining patients with other underlying illnesses as patients group. PEMS statistics software package was used for estimation of prevalence rate, χ 2 test and PE risk factor analysis. Results: There were 251 PE patients among 461 patients, the prevalence rate [ (π)=95% confidence interval (CI) ] was: lower extremity thrombosis and varicosity (80.79-95.47 ), post cesarean section (55.64-87.12), lower extremity bone surgery or fracture (52.76-87.27 ), cancer operation (52.19-78.19), atrial fibrillation or heart failure (53.30-74.88), obesity (23.14-50.20), post abdominal surgery (20.23-59.43), diabetes (19.12-63.95), chronic bronchitis (1.80-23.06), normal control group (3.47-22.66). Except chronic bronchitis, PE prevalence rate between patients group and control group had significant difference (P 99 Tc m -MAA and DTPA lung imaging should be done as early as possible. (authors)

  3. Increased fracture rate in women with breast cancer: a review of the hidden risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Body Jean-Jacques

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Women with breast cancer, particularly individuals diagnosed at a relatively early age, have an increased incidence of fractures. Fractures can have serious clinical consequences including the need for major surgery, increased morbidity and mortality, increased cost of disease management, and reduced quality of life for patients. The primary cause of the increased fracture risk appears to be an accelerated decrease in bone mineral density (BMD resulting from the loss of estrogenic signaling that occurs with most treatments for breast cancer, including aromatase inhibitors. However, factors other than BMD levels alone may influence treatment decisions to reduce fracture risk in this setting. Our purpose is to review current evidence for BMD loss and fracture risk during treatment for breast cancer and discuss pharmacologic means to reduce this risk. Results Fracture risk during treatment for breast cancer may be influenced by the rate of BMD loss and the consequent rapid alterations in bone microarchitecture, in addition to the established fracture risk factors in postmenopausal osteoporosis. The rapid decrease in BMD during adjuvant chemoendocrine therapy for breast cancer may necessitate more aggressive pharmacotherapy than is indicated for healthy postmenopausal women who develop osteoporosis. Over the last few years, clinical trials have established the effectiveness of bisphosphonates and other antiresorptive agents to preserve BMD during adjuvant therapy for early breast cancer. In addition, some bisphosphonates (eg, zoledronic acid may also delay disease recurrence in women with hormone-responsive tumors, thereby providing an adjuvant benefit in addition to preserving BMD and potentially preventing fractures. Conclusions It is likely that a combined fracture risk assessment (eg, as in the WHO FRAX algorithm will more accurately identify both women with postmenopausal osteoporosis and women with breast cancer who require

  4. Risk Factors for Reduced Salivary Flow Rate in a Japanese Population: The Hisayama Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenji Takeuchi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to determine distinct risk factors causing reduced salivary flow rate in a community-dwelling population using a prospective cohort study design. This was a 5-year follow-up survey of 1,377 community-dwelling Japanese individuals aged ≥40 years. The salivary flow rate was evaluated at baseline and follow-up by collecting stimulated saliva. Data on demographic characteristics, use of medication, and general and oral health status were obtained at baseline. The relationship between reduced salivary flow rate during the follow-up period and its predictors was evaluated after adjustment for confounding factors. In a multivariate logistic regression model, higher age and plaque score and lower serum albumin levels were significantly associated with greater odds of an obvious reduction in salivary flow rate (age per decade, odds ratio [OR] = 1.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03–1.51; serum albumin levels <4 g/dL, OR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.04–2.46; plaque score ≥1, OR = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.04–2.24. In a multivariate linear regression model, age and plaque score remained independently associated with the increased rate of reduced salivary flow. These results suggest that aging and plaque score are important predictors of reduced salivary flow rate in Japanese adults.

  5. Low-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Versus Cryotherapy in Low- and Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gestaut, Matthew M; Cai, Wendi; Vyas, Shilpa; Patel, Belur J; Hasan, Salman A; MunozMaldonado, Yolanda; Deb, Niloyjyoti; Swanson, Gregory

    2017-05-01

    Cryotherapy and brachytherapy are definitive local treatment options for low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. There are both prospective and retrospective data for brachytherapy, but the use of cryotherapy has been limited primarily to single-institution retrospective studies. Currently, no published evidence has compared low-dose-rate brachytherapy versus cryotherapy. Institutional review board approval was obtained to conduct a retrospective chart review of consecutive patients treated at our institution from 1990 to 2012. For inclusion, patients must have received a prostate cancer diagnosis and have been considered to have low- to intermediate-risk disease according to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network criteria. All patients received brachytherapy or cryotherapy treatment. Disease specifics and failure details were collected for all patients. Failure was defined as prostate-specific antigen nadir +2 ng/mL. A total of 359 patients were analyzed. The groups comprised 50 low-risk cryotherapy (LRC), 92 intermediate-risk cryotherapy (IRC), 133 low-risk brachytherapy (LRB), and 84 intermediate-risk brachytherapy (IRB) patients. The median prostate-specific antigen follow-up periods were 85.6 months (LRC), 59.2 months (IRC), 74.9 months (LRB), and 59.8 months (IRB). The 5-year biochemical progression-free survival (bPFS) rate was 57.9% in the cryotherapy group versus 89.6% in the brachytherapy group (Pcryotherapy for low- and intermediate-risk groups (Pcryotherapy patients was -35°C (range, -96°C to -6°C). Cryotherapy used a median of 2 freeze-thaw cycles (range, 2-4 freeze-thaw cycles). Results from this study suggest that cryotherapy is inferior to brachytherapy for patients with low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. Patient selection criteria for consideration of cryotherapy and brachytherapy are similar in terms of anesthesia candidacy. Therefore, cryotherapy would not be recommended as a first-line local therapy for this particular

  6. Rates and risks of gastrostomy tubes in infants with cleft palate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cu, Sharon R; Sidman, James D

    2011-03-01

    To review data on a cohort of infants with cleft palate to (1) determine rates of gastrostomy (G)-tube placement, (2) identify contributing comorbidities, and (3) use relative risk analyses to improve management of cleft palate in infants with feeding difficulty. Retrospective medical record review. Tertiary care children's hospital. Infants with cleft palate born between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2008, without G-tubes prior to referral were included. Comorbidities were analyzed, including syndromes and chromosomopathies (syn/chrom) and cardiac, respiratory, neurologic, and gastrointestinal diagnoses. These comorbidities were analyzed independently. Gastrostomy-tube placement. Of 214 infants with cleft palate, 34 required G-tubes. Of these, 19 had syn/chrom. Independent of these diagnoses, 17 infants had 1 system comorbidity and 12 had multisystem comorbidities. Of the 180 patients without G-tubes, 20 had syn/chrom. Independent of these diagnoses, 10 infants had 1 system comorbidity and 2 had multisystem comorbidities. Rates of G-tube placement ranged from 3% in infants without any comorbidity to 94% in infants with respiratory comorbidity. Relative risks of G-tube placement with syn/chrom, 1 system comorbidity, and multisystem comorbidities were 5.68 (95% confidence interval, 3.18-10.16), 21.79 (8.76-54.17), and 29.66 (12.18-72.21), respectively. Diagnosis of syn/chrom or major comorbidity significantly increases risk of G-tube placement. Regardless of syn/chrom association, problems affecting the heart, respiratory system, central nervous system, and lower esophageal sphincter are the most significant risk factors, implying that particular comorbidities are more influential than a simple diagnosis of syn/chrom. These data should help identify children at greatest risk for G-tubes and those expected to overcome feeding difficulties, leading to more persistent use of nonsurgical therapy before resorting to G-tubes.

  7. Homicide mortality rates in Canada, 2000-2009: Youth at increased risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basham, C Andrew; Snider, Carolyn

    2016-10-20

    To estimate and compare Canadian homicide mortality rates (HMRs) and trends in HMRs across age groups, with a focus on trends for youth. Data for the period of 2000 to 2009 were collected from Statistics Canada's CANSIM (Canadian Statistical Information Management) Table 102-0540 with the following ICD-10-CA coded external causes of death: X85 to Y09 (assault) and Y87.1 (sequelae of assault). Annual population counts from 2000 to 2009 were obtained from Statistics Canada's CANSIM Table 051-0001. Both death and population counts were organized into five-year age groups. A random effects negative binomial regression analysis was conducted to estimate age group-specific rates, rate ratios, and trends in homicide mortality. There were 9,878 homicide deaths in Canada during the study period. The increase in the overall homicide mortality rate (HMR) of 0.3% per year was not statistically significant (95% CI: -1.1% to +1.8%). Canadians aged 15-19 years and 20-24 years had the highest HMRs during the study period, and experienced statistically significant annual increases in their HMRs of 3% and 4% respectively (p < 0.05). A general, though not statistically significant, decrease in the HMR was observed for all age groups 50+ years. A fixed effects negative binomial regression model showed that the HMR for males was higher than for females over the study period [RRfemale/male = 0.473 (95% CI: 0.361, 0.621)], but no significant difference in sex-specific trends in the HMR was found. An increasing risk of homicide mortality was identified among Canadian youth, ages 15-24, over the 10-year study period. Research that seeks to understand the reasons for the increased homicide risk facing Canada's youth, and public policy responses to reduce this risk, are warranted.

  8. Neural Network for Determining Risk Rate of Post-Heart Stroke Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oldřich Trenz

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The ischemic heart disease presents an important health problem that affects a great part of the population and is the cause of one third of all deaths in the Czech Republic. The availability of data describing the patients’ prognosis enables their further analysis, with the aim of lowering the patients’ risk, by proposing optimum treatment. The main reason for creating the neural network model is not only to automate the process of establishing the risk rate of patients suffering from ischemic heart disease, but also to adapt it for practical use in clinical conditions. Our aim is to identify especially the specific group of risk-rate patients whose well-timed preventive care can improve the quality and prolong the length of their lives.The aim of the paper is to propose a patient-parameter structure, using which we could create a suitable model based on a self-taught neural network. The emphasis is placed on identifying key descriptive parameters (in the form of a reduction of the available descriptive parameters that are crucial for identifying the required patients, and simultaneously to achieve a portability of the model among individual clinical workplaces (availability of parameters.

  9. Making birth defects ‘preventable’: Pre-conceptional vitamin supplements and the politics of risk reduction☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Gailani, Salim

    2014-01-01

    Since the mid-1990s, governments and health organizations around the world have adopted policies designed to increase women’s intake of the B-vitamin ‘folic acid’ before and during the first weeks of pregnancy. Building on initial clinical research in the United Kingdom, folic acid supplementation has been shown to lower the incidence of neural tube defects (NTDs). Recent debate has focused principally on the need for mandatory fortification of grain products with this vitamin. This article takes a longer view, tracing the transformation of folic acid from a routine prenatal supplement to reduce the risk of anaemia to a routine ‘pre-conceptional’ supplement to ‘prevent’ birth defects. Understood in the 1950s in relation to social problems of poverty and malnutrition, NTDs were by the end of the century more likely to be attributed to individual failings. This transition was closely associated with a second. Folic acid supplements were initially prescribed to ‘high-risk’ women who had previously borne a child with a NTD. By the mid-1990s, they were recommended for all women of childbearing age. The acceptance of folic acid as a ‘risk-reducing drug’ both relied upon and helped to advance the development of preventive and clinical practices concerned with women’s health before pregnancy. PMID:24268931

  10. Semiparametric accelerated failure time cure rate mixture models with competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sangbum; Zhu, Liang; Huang, Xuelin

    2018-01-15

    Modern medical treatments have substantially improved survival rates for many chronic diseases and have generated considerable interest in developing cure fraction models for survival data with a non-ignorable cured proportion. Statistical analysis of such data may be further complicated by competing risks that involve multiple types of endpoints. Regression analysis of competing risks is typically undertaken via a proportional hazards model adapted on cause-specific hazard or subdistribution hazard. In this article, we propose an alternative approach that treats competing events as distinct outcomes in a mixture. We consider semiparametric accelerated failure time models for the cause-conditional survival function that are combined through a multinomial logistic model within the cure-mixture modeling framework. The cure-mixture approach to competing risks provides a means to determine the overall effect of a treatment and insights into how this treatment modifies the components of the mixture in the presence of a cure fraction. The regression and nonparametric parameters are estimated by a nonparametric kernel-based maximum likelihood estimation method. Variance estimation is achieved through resampling methods for the kernel-smoothed likelihood function. Simulation studies show that the procedures work well in practical settings. Application to a sarcoma study demonstrates the use of the proposed method for competing risk data with a cure fraction. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. FACTORS THAT MAY DETERMINE THE RECOVERY RATE OF FINANCIAL RISK DAMAGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Diana Rosioru

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The information about the performance of a company, especially about its profitability, are useful to the consideration of potential changes of the economic resources, which the company might further control and the forecast of the ability to generate treasury flows by the existent resources. Also, based on the performance, judgments are expressed, aiming the efficiency whereof the company may use new resources. The performance of company may be influenced by its financial risk. The financial risk is defined as “variability of result indicators, under the incidence of financial structure of the company” . It is established by “the financing policy of the company, by equity or loans”. The financial risk results by the structure of the company shareholding or by the use method of financial instruments. The financial risks result by different sources, including changes of the interest rate, currency trades, expansions of lending operations, issuance of shares, as well as the use of derived financial instruments (IFD.

  12. Political balance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hopmann, David Nicolas; Van Aelst, Peter; Salgado, Susana

    2017-01-01

    Before every election campaign, the French Conseil supérieur de l’audiovisuel (CSA) publishes detailed rules on how much news coverage candidates are allowed to have vis-à-vis one another in the electronic media to ensure what it calls pluralisme politique (e.g., CSA 2011). Also outside election...... and control news coverage (mainly public broadcasters) or have informal rules that determine news coverage of politics (Hopmann, Van Aelst, and Legnante 2012; Kaid and Strömbäck 2008)....

  13. Political Epistemology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, David Budtz

    2011-01-01

    This dissertation is intended to establish a framework for a revised picture of the loci of epistemic preferences in our complex knowledge-based society. In what ways do institutions, policies and regulations determine the conditions under which knowledge is produced and justified? This dissertat......This dissertation is intended to establish a framework for a revised picture of the loci of epistemic preferences in our complex knowledge-based society. In what ways do institutions, policies and regulations determine the conditions under which knowledge is produced and justified......? This dissertation argues that we can identify multiple epistemic preferences in the institutional and political settings that govern the production and distribution of knowledge....

  14. THE MANAGEMENT OF CREDIT RISK ACCORDING TO INTERNAL RATINGS- BASED APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BOLOCAN DRAGOS-MIHAIL

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The internal ratings based approach (IRB Approach was created as part of Basel II replacing the original Basle Accord of 1988 (Basle I in an effort to create a better framework for regulating bank capital. This paper covers the methodology and components of the IRB Approach used to determine capital requirements for credit risk. Such an approach, which relies heavily upon a banks internal assessment of its counterparties and exposures, can secure two key objectives consistent with those which support the wider review of The New Basel Capital Accord.. IRB approach should promote safety and soundness in the financial system and, consistent with providing incentive compatibility, that the structure and requirements of the IRB approach do not impinge upon or undermine banks well-established lending and credit risk management practices

  15. On Value at Risk for Foreign Exchange Rates --- the Copula Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaworski, P.

    2006-11-01

    The aim of this paper is to determine the Value at Risk (VaR) of the portfolio consisting of long positions in foreign currencies on an emerging market. Basing on empirical data we restrict ourselves to the case when the tail parts of distributions of logarithmic returns of these assets follow the power laws and the lower tail of associated copula C follows the power law of degree 1. We will illustrate the practical usefulness of this approach by the analysis of the exchange rates of EUR and CHF at the Polish forex market.

  16. Street Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. Shapiro

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available I write from Prague, where, unlike in most urban formations, the main city street plays an iconic role; it references a history of political protest. However, before elaborating on the protest iconography of the Prague street, Vaclavske nam, I want to locate the ways in which the design of urban space is actualized in everyday life in the cities of the world. Three functions stand out; the first involves dwelling, the second seeing, and the third moving. With respect to the first function – dwelling – the design partitions and coordinates residential, commercial and leisure functions. At times these are organized to segregate different classes (Robert Moses’ redesign of much of New York stands out with respect to the segregation function. With respect to the second function – seeing – the design of urban space is allegiance-inspiring; it involves sight lines that afford urban dwellers and visitors views of iconic buildings and statues, which reference key founding moments in the past and/or authoritative political functions in the present (Here, L’Enfants design for Washington DC stands out as exemplary. Its manifest intention was to make the buildings housing executive, legislative and judicial functions visible from many vantage points. Rarely are the streets themselves iconic. Their dominant role is involved with the effectuation of movement. As for this third function: As Lewis Mumford famously points out, streets were once part of an asterisk design, radiating out from an exemplary, often spiritual center...

  17. Political electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Price, Terence.

    1990-01-01

    This book is a non-technical exploration of the political and policy issues that have influenced the development of nuclear power. Part One describes the successes, failures, horse-trading, and infighting that make up nuclear power's history, taking nine counties as examples. Part Two reviews the main problems that now confront us, as seen in mid-June 1990; like all contemporary accounts, the book is unavoidably incomplete. However, by then it was possible to make provisional judgements about two very important recent influences: the political consequences of Chernobyl, and concerns about the greenhouse effect. The story that emerges is of a nuclear industry that has rarely been guilty of dereliction of duty, though it was undeniably complacent in not addressing sooner the causes of the public's entirely reasonable anxieties. The anti-nuclear lobby has been skilled in debate, and sometimes extraordinarily percipient; but less than fair in failing to acknowledge the industry's achievements and its willingness to learn from past mistakes. As for the politicians, the book contains many examples that show how the flames of controversy can be deliberately fanned when there are votes to be gained. The story has few heroes, but within the industry fewer villains than the public has been led to believe. (author)

  18. Dependence and risk assessment for oil prices and exchange rate portfolios: A wavelet based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania

    2015-10-01

    In this article, we propose a wavelet-based approach to accommodate the stylized facts and complex structure of financial data, caused by frequent and abrupt changes of markets and noises. Specifically, we show how the combination of both continuous and discrete wavelet transforms with traditional financial models helps improve portfolio's market risk assessment. In the empirical stage, three wavelet-based models (wavelet-EGARCH with dynamic conditional correlations, wavelet-copula, and wavelet-extreme value) are considered and applied to crude oil price and US dollar exchange rate data. Our findings show that the wavelet-based approach provides an effective and powerful tool for detecting extreme moments and improving the accuracy of VaR and Expected Shortfall estimates of oil-exchange rate portfolios after noise is removed from the original data.

  19. Heart rate variability regression and risk of sudden unexpected death in epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galli, Alessio; Lombardi, Federico

    2017-02-01

    The exact mechanisms of sudden unexpected death in epilepsy remain elusive, despite there is consensus that SUDEP is associated with severe derangements in the autonomic control to vital functions as breathing and heart rate regulation. Heart rate variability (HRV) has been advocated as biomarker of autonomic control to the heart. Cardiac dysautonomia has been found in diseases where other branches of the autonomous nervous system are damaged, as Parkinson disease and multiple system atrophy. In this perspective, an impaired HRV not only is a risk factor for sudden cardiac death mediated by arrhythmias, but also a potential biomarker for monitoring a progressive decline of the autonomous nervous system. This slope may lead to an acute imbalance of the regulatory pathways of vital functions after seizure and then to SUDEP. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Risk factors for breast cancer in a population with high incidence rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wrensch, Margaret; Peskin-Mentzer, Roni; Quesenberry, Charles P Jr; Souders-Mason, Virginia; Spence, Linda; Suzuki, Marisa; Gould, Mary; Chew, Terri; Farren, Georgianna; Barlow, Janice; Belli, Flavia; Clarke, Christina; Erdmann, Christine A; Lee, Marion; Moghadassi, Michelle

    2003-01-01

    This report examines generally recognized breast cancer risk factors and years of residence in Marin County, California, an area with high breast cancer incidence and mortality rates. Eligible women who were residents of Marin County diagnosed with breast cancer in 1997–99 and women without breast cancer obtained through random digit dialing, frequency-matched by cases' age at diagnosis and ethnicity, participated in either full in-person or abbreviated telephone interviews. In multivariate analyses, 285 cases were statistically significantly more likely than 286 controls to report being premenopausal, never to have used birth control pills, a lower highest lifetime body mass index, four or more mammograms in 1990–94, beginning drinking after the age of 21, on average drinking two or more drinks per day, the highest quartile of pack-years of cigarette smoking and having been raised in an organized religion. Cases and controls did not significantly differ with regard to having a first-degree relative with breast cancer, a history of benign breast biopsy, previous radiation treatment, age at menarche, parity, use of hormone replacement therapy, age of first living in Marin County, or total years lived in Marin County. Results for several factors differed for women aged under 50 years or 50 years and over. Despite similar distributions of several known breast cancer risk factors, case-control differences in alcohol consumption suggest that risk in this high-risk population might be modifiable. Intensive study of this or other areas of similarly high incidence might reveal other important risk factors proximate to diagnosis

  1. Association among salivary flow rate, caries risk and nutritional status in pre-schoolers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, Patricia N; Martínez Reinoso, Josefina; Gamba, Carlota A; Salgado, Pablo A; Mateo, María Teresa; Manto, María del Carmen; Molgatini, Susana L; Iglesias, Verónica; Argentieri, Ángela B

    2015-01-01

    Modeer T. et al.(2011) claim that there is association between decreased salivary flow rate and caries in obese adolescents. The aim of this study was to determine the association among nutritional status, salivary flow rate and caries risk in preschoolers. The study comprised 60 children aged 3 to 6 years attending kindergartens in areas immediately adjacent to Buenos Aires City, Argentina. Body weight and height of the children were determined. Body mass index was calculated and the population was classified anthropometrically according to the WHO 2007 (WHO Anthro. Program). Caries risk was determined. Saliva was collected in sterile graduated widemouth containers, without stimulation and without food restrictions. Salivary flow rate (SFR) was determined. Statistical analysis was performed using Pearson's test. It was found that 56.7% (IC95%: 37.7-74.0) of anthropometrically adequate children (Ad) and 37.0% (IC95%: 20.1-57.5) of overweight and obese children (OW/Ob) had caries. The odds ratio for caries (OR=3.78; IC95%: 1.2-11.8, p=0.02) was almost 4 times higher in adequate children than in the others. SFR was 0.534 0.318 ml/min in Ad and 0.439 } 0.234 ml/min in OW/Ob. Pearson's test showed no correlation between SFR and nutritional status (r= 0.004592, p= 0.5977). Although the presence of caries was lower in overweight and obese children, no correlation was found between nutritional status and salivary flow rate.

  2. Brain atrophy rates in first degree relatives at risk for Alzheimer's

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika J. Lampert

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A positive family history (FH raises the risk for late-onset Alzheimer's disease though, other than the known risk conferred by apolipoprotein ε4 (ApoE4, much of the genetic variance remains unexplained. We examined the effect of family history on longitudinal regional brain atrophy rates in 184 subjects (42% FH+, mean age 79.9 with mild cognitive impairment (MCI enrolled in a national biomarker study. An automated image analysis method was applied to T1-weighted MR images to measure atrophy rates for 20 cortical and subcortical regions. Mixed-effects linear regression models incorporating repeated-measures to control for within-subject variation over multiple time points tested the effect of FH over a follow-up of up to 48 months. Most of the 20 regions showed significant atrophy over time. Adjusting for age and gender, subjects with a positive FH had greater atrophy of the amygdala (p < 0.01, entorhinal cortex (p < 0.01, hippocampus (p < 0.053 and cortical gray matter (p < 0.009. However, when E4 genotype was added as a covariate, none of the FH effects remained significant. Analyses by ApoE genotype showed that the effect of FH on amygdala atrophy rates was numerically greater in ε3 homozygotes than in E4 carriers, but this difference was not significant. FH+ subjects had numerically greater 4-year cognitive decline and conversion rates than FH− subjects but the difference was not statistically significant after adjusting for ApoE and other variables. We conclude that a positive family history of AD may influence cortical and temporal lobe atrophy in subjects with mild cognitive impairment, but it does not have a significant additional effect beyond the known effect of the E4 genotype.

  3. Physiological daily inhalation rates for health risk assessment in overweight/obese children, adults, and elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brochu, Pierre; Bouchard, Michèle; Haddad, Sami

    2014-03-01

    Physiological daily inhalation rates reported in our previous study for normal-weight subjects 2.6-96 years old were compared to inhalation data determined in free-living overweight/obese individuals (n = 661) aged 5-96 years. Inhalation rates were also calculated in normal-weight (n = 408), overweight (n = 225), and obese classes 1, 2, and 3 adults (n = 134) aged 20-96 years. These inhalation values were based on published indirect calorimetry measurements (n = 1,069) and disappearance rates of oral doses of water isotopes (i.e., (2)H2 O and H2 (18)O) monitored by gas isotope ratio mass spectrometry usually in urine samples for an aggregate period of over 16,000 days. Ventilatory equivalents for overweight/obese subjects at rest and during their aggregate daytime activities (28.99 ± 6.03 L to 34.82 ± 8.22 L of air inhaled/L of oxygen consumed; mean ± SD) were determined and used for calculations of inhalation rates. The interindividual variability factor calculated as the ratio of the highest 99th percentile to the lowest 1st percentile of daily inhalation rates is higher for absolute data expressed in m3 /day (26.7) compared to those of data in m3/kg-day (12.2) and m3/m2-day (5.9). Higher absolute rates generally found in overweight/obese individuals compared to their normal-weight counterparts suggest higher intakes of air pollutants (in μg/day) for the former compared to the latter during identical exposure concentrations and conditions. Highest absolute mean (24.57 m3/day) and 99th percentile (55.55 m3 /day) values were found in obese class 2 adults. They inhale on average 8.21 m3 more air per day than normal-weight adults. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. India in search of right Universal Health Coverage (UHC) model: The risks of implementing UHC in the absence of political demand by the citizen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Raman; Roy, Pritam

    2016-01-01

    Amid the global push for Universal Health Coverage (UHC), the agenda is being set for India's health care. In the absence of a constitutional mandate, a national policy and citizen-led political demand for UHC, there exist specific risks in rushing toward its implementation in India. As the debate of UHC continues, the health-care delivery system in India is at cross roads. UHC in India could take two different trajectories. The first one takes India toward becoming "Global Bazaar" of morbidity and ill health, founded on the pillars of a vibrant rapidly multiplying healthcare industry. The other path takes India on a course of preventing wasteful, expensive health-care expenditure by maintaining healthy populations. A poor professional blood donor cannot become rich by selling his or her own blood beyond medically permissible levels; similarly, India cannot become a developed economy by merely allowing exploitation of disease, illness, and morbidity of her citizen. It is the duty of the state and governments to protect individual citizen, population under consideration, as well as country's economy from wasteful and potentially harmful expenditure incurred to address ill health. In the economic sense, any sensible UHC implementation mechanism would seek to regulate wasteful preventable health-care expenditure for the purpose of future economic stability and growth of the country. Due diligence toward safeguarding "public health in public interest," during the process of UHC implementation, is the need of the hour.

  5. India in search of right Universal Health Coverage (UHC model: The risks of implementing UHC in the absence of political demand by the citizen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raman Kumar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Amid the global push for Universal Health Coverage (UHC, the agenda is being set for India′s health care. In the absence of a constitutional mandate, a national policy and citizen-led political demand for UHC, there exist specific risks in rushing toward its implementation in India. As the debate of UHC continues, the health-care delivery system in India is at cross roads. UHC in India could take two different trajectories. The first one takes India toward becoming "Global Bazaar" of morbidity and ill health, founded on the pillars of a vibrant rapidly multiplying healthcare industry. The other path takes India on a course of preventing wasteful, expensive health-care expenditure by maintaining healthy populations. A poor professional blood donor cannot become rich by selling his or her own blood beyond medically permissible levels; similarly, India cannot become a developed economy by  merely allowing exploitation of disease, illness, and morbidity of her citizen. It is the duty of the state and governments to protect individual citizen, population under consideration, as well as country′s economy from wasteful and potentially harmful expenditure incurred to address ill health. In the economic sense, any sensible UHC implementation mechanism would seek to regulate wasteful preventable health-care expenditure for the purpose of future economic stability and growth of the country. Due diligence toward safeguarding "public health in public interest," during the process of UHC implementation, is the need of the hour.

  6. Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno

    2011-01-01

    Most economic studies of forest decision making under risk assume a fixed interest rate. This paper investigated some implications of this stochastic nature of interest rates. Markov decision process (MDP) models, used previously to integrate stochastic stand growth and prices, can be extended to include variable interest rates as well. This method was applied to...

  7. Evaluation of Survival Rate and Pattern of Risk Factors and Recurrence Rate in Patients with Triple-Negative Breast Cancer with other Subtypes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Mohammad Reza Mortazavizadeh

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Breast cancer nowadays is one the major health issue especially in industrial population. Despite excessive researches in this regard, there is still no detailed and relevant information on the association between the risk factors of this cancer and its many outcomes. Due to increasing rate of breast cancer in Iran, including Yazd city, the present study was designed to evaluate the relationship between survival and recurrence rate with pattern of risk factors in breast cancer patients. Methods: This analytical study was conducted retrospectively on 333 patients with breast cancer during 8 years (2005-2013. Total survival and recurrence rates recorded in month for all samples, and then were analyzed and compared other obtained data. Chi-square and log rank were selected tests for analyzing and Kaplan-Meier was applicable curve for survival analyzing. Results: The mean age of subjects was 57.02 ± 12.32 years. The mean total survival rate was 93.15 ± 1.25 months (97.9%. The mean total recurrence rate was 84.59 ± 1.91 months (89.8%. The subgroups of breast cancer had no significant relationship with risk factors (P>0.05 though BMI and recurrence rate had significant relationship (P=0.045. Other risk factors had no significant relationship with total survival and recurrence rates. The mean duration of OCP (oral contraceptive pill consumption was significantly more in the patients with ER-PR-Her2+ subgroup than other groups (P=0.03.   Conclusion: According the findings, BMI lower than 25 is strong prognostic factor for recurrence rate in patients with triple-negative breast cancer. Because of high survival rate of patients with breast cancer during eight years, it is recommended to study on high survival period with larger sample sizes for accessing reliable evidence.

  8. THE APPLICATION OF RISK BASED BANK RATING ON BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION OF BANKS IN INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evi Sistiyarini

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The increase of banking products and services which is more complex will increase the risk to the banks. Therefore, to anticipate the rise of financial difficulties in a bank, the early warning system. This study aimed to find the influence RBBR (Risk Based Bank Rating ratio’s to predict bankruptcy of conventional Banks in Indonesia. Ratio of RBBR consisted of risk profile, Good Corporate Governance, profitability and capital. Independent variables used were NPL, PDN, LDR, GCG, ROA and NIM, and CAR. Dependent variable was bank bankruptcy using dummy variable. The population of this study was all of the conventional banks in Indonesia. The data was a secondary data taken form financial report of conventional bank 2011-2015. Technical sampling used was a purposive sampling method with some criteria. The analysis of this study used logistic regression.The result of the study showed that NPL, PDN, LDR, GCG, ROA and NIM, and CARhad no significant influence to bankruptcy of the bank.

  9. Refugee, asylum seeker, immigrant women and postnatal depression: rates and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Catherine H; Zimmerman, Cathy; Howard, Louise M

    2011-02-01

    Postnatal depression (PND) is recognised as a common maternal health problem, but little evidence examines PND among refugee, asylum seeker and immigrant women in developed country settings. This review aimed to identify the rates of PND and highlight common risk factors among this group of women. An iterative and dynamic literature search was conducted across ten databases to identify published articles on PND among immigrant, asylum-seeking and refugee women in developed country settings. Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) and 'free text' search terms, as well as thesaurus terms, acronyms and truncation were used where appropriate. Findings suggest that PND may affect up to 42% of migrant women, compared to around 10-15% of native-born women. Common risk factors for PND among migrant women include history of stressful life events, lack of social support and cultural factors. With a growing number of babies born to immigrant mothers, greater awareness of PND among this group is needed in order to respond to their particular maternal mental health needs. Maternity care providers should regard all recent immigrants as at high risk of PND and give closer observation and support as necessary.

  10. Rates of fetal polydrug exposures in methadone-maintained pregnancies from a high-risk population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaitlyn Delano

    Full Text Available Methadone maintenance treatment (MMT is the standard of care during pregnancy for opioid-dependency, showing efficacy in improving prenatal care and reducing risk of relapse. By design, however, MMT is only intended to prevent withdrawal thus facilitating cognitive behavioural interventions. In order to maximize the benefits of MMT, it is essential that methadone is both properly prescribed and that additional addiction treatment is concurrently administered. This study aims to determine the effectiveness of MMT engagement in high-risk pregnant women in reducing polydrug use by objective laboratory examination of neonatal meconium.Over a 29-month period, the Motherisk Laboratory at the Hospital for Sick Children in Toronto analyzed meconium samples as per request by social services and hospitals for drugs of abuse.Of the 904 meconium samples received, 273 were tested for methadone with 164 positive and 109 negative for methadone. Almost half of the methadone positive samples (46.34% were also positive for at least one other opioid compound, which did not differ statistically from the methadone-negative control samples (46.79%; Chi square test, p=0.94. No differences were found between the methadone positive and negative groups in rates of concurrent amphetamines, cocaine, cannabis, and alcohol use indicating a similar risk of polydrug use between pregnant women taking or not taking methadone in this population.The high rates of additional opioid and other drug use in the MMT group, suggest that MMT is failing this population of patients. It is possible that methadone doses during pregnancy are not appropriately adjusted for changes in pharmacokinetic parameters (e.g. blood volume, renal function during the second and third trimesters. This may result in sub-therapeutic dosing creating withdrawal symptoms leading to additional substance use. Alternatively, these results may be demonstrating a substantial lack in delivery of addiction support

  11. Underground Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galis, Vasilis; Summerton, Jane

    of various kinds, as well as for identifying and displacing undesired individuals/groups/bodies. A case in point is a recently-established police project (REVA) in Sweden for strengthening the so-called internal border control. Specifically, several underground stations in Stockholm now have checkpoints......Public spaces are often contested sites involving the political use of sociomaterial arrangements to check, control and filter the flow of people (see Virilio 1977, 1996). Such arrangements can include configurations of state-of-the-art policing technologies for delineating and demarcating borders...... status updates on identity checks at the metro stations in Stockholm and reports on locations and time of ticket controls for warning travelers. Thus the attempts by authorities to exert control over the (spatial) arena of the underground is circumvented by the effective developing of an alternative...

  12. Rates and risks for prolonged grief disorder in a sample of orphaned and widowed genocide survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaal, Susanne; Jacob, Nadja; Dusingizemungu, Jean-Pierre; Elbert, Thomas

    2010-07-06

    The concept of Prolonged Grief Disorder (PGD) has been defined in recent years by Prigerson and co-workers, who have developed and empirically tested consensus and diagnostic criteria for PGD. Using these most recent criteria defining PGD, the aim of this study was to determine rates of and risks for PGD in survivors of the 1994 Rwandan genocide who had lost a parent and/or the husband before, during or after the 1994 events. The PG-13 was administered to 206 orphans or half orphans and to 194 widows. A regression analysis was carried out to examine risk factors of PGD. 8.0% (n = 32) of the sample met criteria for PGD with an average of 12 years post-loss. All but one person had faced multiple losses and the majority indicated that their grief-related loss was due to violent death (70%). Grief was predicted mainly by time since the loss, by the violent nature of the loss, the severity of symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and the importance given to religious/spiritual beliefs. By contrast, gender, age at the time of bereavement, bereavement status (widow versus orphan), the number of different types of losses reported and participation in the funeral ceremony did not impact the severity of prolonged grief reactions. A significant portion of the interviewed sample continues to experience grief over interpersonal losses and unresolved grief may endure over time if not addressed by clinical intervention. Severity of grief reactions may be associated with a set of distinct risk factors. Subjects who lose someone through violent death seem to be at special risk as they have to deal with the loss experience as such and the traumatic aspects of the loss. Symptoms of PTSD may hinder the completion of the mourning process. Religious beliefs may facilitate the mourning process and help to find meaning in the loss. These aspects need to be considered in the treatment of PGD.

  13. How does political instability affect economic growth?

    OpenAIRE

    Aisen, Ari; Veiga, Francisco José

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the effects of political instability on economic growth. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models on a sample covering up to 169 countries, and 5-year periods from 1960 to 2004, we find that higher degrees of political instability are associated with lower growth rates of GDP per capita. Regarding the channels of transmission, we find that political instability adversely affects growth by lowering the rates of pr...

  14. Insignificant risk at low dose (rate) radiation predicted by cytogenetic studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayata, I.

    2000-01-01

    Effect of low dose radiation on health is a matter of importance in the field of radiation protection. We discuss it based on the cytogenetic studies in literature and on our study on the residents in the high background radiation area in the south of China. Dicentrics (unstable type chromosome aberration) are the very sensitive indicator of radiation exposure. Increase of their incidence can be detected at 2 cGy acute gamma irradiation. Dicentrics are not directly related to the causation of malignant or genetic diseases, because they are eliminated from the body through cell division. On the other hand, translocations (stable type chromosome aberration) are not lost by cell division and therefore they have potential risk of causing malignant or genetic diseases. Dicentrics and translocations are induced at the same rate by radiation. The finding of the excess incidence of dicentrics among the radiation workers has been sensationally reported in the journals or newspapers. Recently it has become possible to analyze translocations in a short time by so called 'chromosome painting methods' using in situ DNA hybridization technique. It has been revealed by this method that the frequency of translocation increases dramatically with age in the middle-aged and old people who are non-radiation workers. According to experimental studies the induction rate of dicentrics (or translocations) by gamma ray is about 2 in 10000 human lymphocytes per cGy. If the average dose people were exposed to could be 0.24 cGy per year (2.4 mSv per year: according to UNSCEAR report 1988), the accumulated dose at 60 years old could be 14.4 cGy. This would lead to make 3.88 translocations in 1000 lymphocytes. However, studies show that the rate of translocations in the lymphocytes of such elderly people is over 2 to 3 times higher than this predicted rate and its individual variation is extremely wide. That means, in usual environment, chromosome aberrations induced by metabolic factors and

  15. Pregnancy risk assessment monitoring system in Ireland: methods and response rates

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O’Keeffe, Linda M.

    2014-06-01

    To describe response rates and characteristics associated with response to the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System study in Ireland (PRAMS Ireland). Using hospital discharge records of live births at a large, urban, obstetric hospital, a sampling frame of approximately 2,400 mother-infant pairs were used to alternately sample 1,200 women. Mothers’ information including name, address, parity, age and infant characteristics such as sex and gestational age at delivery were extracted from records. Modes of contact included an invitation letter with option to opt out of the study, three mail surveys, a reminder letter and text message reminder for remaining non-respondents. Sixty-one per cent of women responded to the PRAMS Ireland survey over a 133 day response period. Women aged <30, single women, multiparous women and women with a preterm delivery were less likely to respond. Women participating in PRAMS Ireland were similar to the national birth profile in 2011 which had a mean age of 32, were 40 % primiparous, 33 % single or never married and had a 28 % caesarean section rate. Survey and protocol changes are required to increase response rates above recommended Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) thresholds of 65 % within the recommended 90 day data collection cycle. Additional efforts such as stratification and over-sampling are required to increase representativeness among hard to reach groups such as younger, single and multiparous women before expanding the project to an ongoing, national surveillance system in Ireland.

  16. Water requirements and drinking rates of homing pigeons: A consideration for exposure risk of migratory birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, Cristina R; Moye, John K; Pritsos, Chris A

    2017-09-01

    Access to water along a bird's migratory flyway is essential during the vital process of migration. Because of the scarcity of water in some environments, there is potential for migratory birds to encounter and drink from contaminated bodies of water. Ingestion of contaminated water may cause injury and compromise flying ability, leading to a disruption of migration. To determine injury to birds from potential exposure, it is essential to know not only the concentration of a given contaminant in the water but also the quantity and rate of water consumption by the birds. Homing pigeons (Columba livia) were used in a series of experiments to determine differences in drinking behavior after various flights and after periods of resting. Results from the present study demonstrate that homing pigeons' water consumption is dramatically different when assessed according to activity, flight distance, and time elapsed after flight. This suggests that the drinking rates of birds during migration are extremely important and much greater than estimated using traditional exposure assessment procedures. Thus, exposure to contaminants via drinking water may be greatly underestimated, and the rate of water consumption should be considered when estimating potential exposure risk to avian species. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:870-876. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  17. Penilaian Tingkat Kesehatan Bank Dengan Menggunakan Pendekatan Risiko (Risk-Based Bank Rating

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masnawati .

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This  study  aimed  to  analyze  techniques  of  the  bank’s  health  assessment  and determine  which  strategies  should  be  done  in  order  to  improve  the  health  of the bank. The method used is the approach of Risk (Risk Based-Bank Rating in accordance with Bank Indonesia Regulation on Rating Bank that PBI Number: 13/1/PBI/2011  which  entered  into  force  on  January  1,  2012.  Bank  health assessment  performed  using  four  (4  factors:  Risk  Profile,  Good  Corporate Governance (GCG, Earning, and Capital. Object  of  this  study  is  PT.  Bank  Pembangunan  Daerah  Kalimantan  Selatan period  2012.  The  results  showed  that  the  health  of  banks  in  PT.  Bank Pembangunan  Daerah  Kalimantan  Selatan  getting  ranked  2,  meaning  can be  categorized  good.  Strategies  to  improve  the  health  value  of  a  bank  is  to improve aspects of Earnings and Capital. Strategis Steps that must to increase credit expansion, improve the quality and quantity of human resources, product innovation, and increase fee-based income. Keywords: Healthy  banks,  Risk  Profile,  Good  Corporate  Governance  (GCG,  Earnings, Capital

  18. An Investigation of the Mortality Rate and Risk Factors in Newborn Infants With Meconium Aspiration Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabzehei

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background One of the serious challenges facing neonatal medicine is meconium aspiration syndrome, delays in the treatment of which can lead to high mortality. Objectives This study was designed and conducted with the aim of determining the mortality rate and risk factors affecting this rate in newborn infants with meconium aspiration syndrome. Methods This study was conducted as a retrospective descriptive research on newborn infants with meconium aspiration syndrome hospitalized at the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU of Fatemieh and Be’sat hospitals in Hamadan city during a 10-year period from 2004 to 2014. Demographic information of the mother and the newborn, hospitalization course, the need for mechanical ventilation, and complications and outcomes of disease were extracted and were analyzed using the SPSS software version 22. Results Sixty-three newborn infants, diagnosed with meconium aspiration syndrome, were entered in this study, 40% of them were male, 85.7% wighed more than 2500 g, and 17.5% were post term, 25.3% had a five-minute Apgar Score (AS5min of less than seven, 39.6% were nonvigorous at birth, 31.8% needed to be placed on mechanical ventilation, and 14.3% died during the hospitalization course. There was a significant relationship between the need for mechanical ventilation, nonvigorous state at the birth, complications of disease and mortality rate. Conclusions Despite the progress made in medicine, meconium aspiration syndrome is still one of the causes of newborn infants’ mortality. The mortality and morbidity rates can be reduced by improvement in perinatal care, prevention of post term delivery, timely caesarean and effective neonatal resuscitation at birth.

  19. A multi-region assessment of population rates of cardiac catheterization and yield of high-risk coronary artery disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clement Fiona M

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is variation in cardiac catheterization utilization across jurisdictions. Previous work from Alberta, Canada, showed no evidence of a plateau in the yield of high-risk disease at cardiac catheterization rates as high as 600 per 100,000 population suggesting that the optimal rate is higher. This work aims 1 To determine if a previously demonstrated linear relationship between the yield of high-risk coronary disease and cardiac catheterization rates persists with contemporary data and 2 to explore whether the linear relationship exists in other jurisdictions. Methods Detailed clinical information on all patients undergoing cardiac catheterization in 3 Canadian provinces was available through the Alberta Provincial Project for Outcomes Assessment in Coronary Heart (APPROACH disease and partner initiatives in British Columbia and Nova Scotia. Population rates of catheterization and high-risk coronary disease detection for each health region in these three provinces, and age-adjusted rates produced using direct standardization. A mixed effects regression analysis was performed to assess the relationship between catheterization rate and high-risk coronary disease detection. Results In the contemporary Alberta data, we found a linear relationship between the population catheterization rate and the high-risk yield. Although the yield was slightly less in time period 2 (2002-2006 than in time period 1(1995-2001, there was no statistical evidence of a plateau. The linear relationship between catheterization rate and high-risk yield was similarly demonstrated in British Columbia and Nova Scotia and appears to extend, without a plateau in yield, to rates over 800 procedures per 100,000 population. Conclusions Our study demonstrates a consistent finding, over time and across jurisdictions, of linearly increasing detection of high-risk CAD as population rates of cardiac catheterization increase. This internationally-relevant finding

  20. [Social class, psychosocial occupational risk factors, and the association with self-rated health and mental health in Chile].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, Kátia Bones; Muntaner, Carles; Solar, Orielle; Borrell, Carme; Bernales, Pamela; González, María José; Ibañez, Ciro; Benach, Joan; Vallebuona, Clélia

    2014-10-01

    The objective of this study was to analyze the association between social class and psychosocial occupational risk factors and self-rated health and mental health in a Chilean population. A cross-sectional study analyzed data from the First National Survey on Employment, Work, Quality of Life, and Male and Female Workers in Chile (N = 9,503). The dependent variables were self-rated health status and mental health. The independent variables were social class (neo-Marxist), psychosocial occupational risk factors, and material deprivation. Descriptive and logistic regression analyses were performed. There were inequalities in the distribution of psychosocial occupational risk factors by social class and sex. Furthermore, social class and psychosocial occupational risk factors were associated with unequal distribution of self-rated health and mental health among the working population in Chile. Occupational health interventions should consider workers' exposure to socioeconomic and psychosocial risk factors.

  1. Implementation of the global risk analysis in pulsed-dose rate brachytherapy: methods and results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazeron, R; Aguini, N; Rivin Del Campo, E; Dumas, I; Gensse, M-C; Brusadin, G; Lefkopoulos, D; Deutsch, E; Haie-Meder, C

    2015-04-01

    To report the application of the global risk analysis (GRA) in the pulsed-dose rate (PDR) brachytherapy workflow. Analyses were led by a multidisciplinary working group established within the unit with the guidance of a quality engineer. First, a mapping of hazardous situations was developed as a result of interactions between the patient workflow for a treatment using PDR brachytherapy split into 51 sub-phases with a comprehensive list of the hazards that he/she faces (44). Interactions, when relevant, were sorted by level of priority: to be treated immediately, secondarily (the group is not entitled to treat the situation), or later (safe situation). Secondly, for each high priority dangerous situation, scenarios were developed to anticipate their potential consequences. Criticality was assessed, using likelihood and severity scales and a matrix, which allocated risks into categories: acceptable (C1), tolerable under control (C2) and unacceptable (C3). Then, corrective actions were proposed and planned when relevant, after assessment of their feasibility with a scale of effort. Finally, the criticality of the scenarios was reevaluated, taking into account the implementation of these actions, leading to a residual risk mapping, which could trigger additional proposals of actions. Two thousand one hundred and eighty-four potential interactions between the list of hazards and the workflow were analyzed. Mapping of dangerous situations identified 213 relevant interactions, from which 61 were considered with high priority. One hundred and twenty-six scenarios were generated: 68 with a low criticality (74.3%), 58 with an intermediate score (25.7%). No scenario with the highest criticality was individualized. Twenty-one corrective actions were planned. Mapping of residual risk resulted in the disappearance of most C2 risks, leaving 5 C2 scenarios (4%), for which four monitoring indicators were implemented in addition to the corrected actions decided on. The

  2. Psychedelics, Personality and Political Perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nour, Matthew M; Evans, Lisa; Carhart-Harris, Robin L

    2017-01-01

    The psychedelic experience (including psychedelic-induced ego dissolution) can effect lasting change in a person's attitudes and beliefs. Here, we aimed to investigate the association between naturalistic psychedelic use and personality, political perspectives, and nature relatedness using an anonymous internet survey. Participants (N = 893) provided information about their naturalistic psychedelic, cocaine, and alcohol use, and answered questions relating to personality traits of openness and conscientiousness (Ten-Item Personality Inventory), nature relatedness (Nature-Relatedness Scale), and political attitudes (one-item liberalism-conservatism measure and five-item libertarian-authoritarian measure). Participants also rated the degree of ego dissolution experienced during their "most intense" recalled psychedelic experience (Ego-Dissolution Inventory). Multivariate linear regression analysis indicated that lifetime psychedelic use (but not lifetime cocaine use or weekly alcohol consumption) positively predicted liberal political views, openness and nature relatedness, and negatively predicted authoritarian political views, after accounting for potential confounding variables. Ego dissolution experienced during a participant's "most intense" psychedelic experience positively predicted liberal political views, openness and nature relatedness, and negatively predicted authoritarian political views. Further work is needed to investigate the nature of the relationship between the peak psychedelic experience and openness to new experiences, egalitarian political views, and concern for the environment.

  3. Political Crowdfunding as concept of political technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeria GOLKA

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Political crowdfunding is analyzed as a new concept of political science. The justification of use of crowdfunding technologies not only in business but also in the political sphere is argued. The efficiency, availability, low cost of the new forms of political investment through the development of information and communication technologies are noted. The typology of political crowdfunding is proposed. Political projects promoting domestic crowdfunding platforms are analyzed. Attention is drawn to the problem of legal gaps in the regulation of crowdfunding is studied. The foreign experience of organizing public support (mikroinvestment political projects. It is emphasized that in terms of political theory crowdfunding is based on solidarity. The crowdfunding properties of transforming social capital accumulated by social networks into financial capital are mentioned.

  4. Breast Cancer-Related Arm Lymphedema: Incidence Rates, Diagnostic Techniques, Optimal Management and Risk Reduction Strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shah, Chirag; Vicini, Frank A.

    2011-01-01

    As more women survive breast cancer, long-term toxicities affecting their quality of life, such as lymphedema (LE) of the arm, gain importance. Although numerous studies have attempted to determine incidence rates, identify optimal diagnostic tests, enumerate efficacious treatment strategies and outline risk reduction guidelines for breast cancer–related lymphedema (BCRL), few groups have consistently agreed on any of these issues. As a result, standardized recommendations are still lacking. This review will summarize the latest data addressing all of these concerns in order to provide patients and health care providers with optimal, contemporary recommendations. Published incidence rates for BCRL vary substantially with a range of 2–65% based on surgical technique, axillary sampling method, radiation therapy fields treated, and the use of chemotherapy. Newer clinical assessment tools can potentially identify BCRL in patients with subclinical disease with prospective data suggesting that early diagnosis and management with noninvasive therapy can lead to excellent outcomes. Multiple therapies exist with treatments defined by the severity of BCRL present. Currently, the standard of care for BCRL in patients with significant LE is complex decongestive physiotherapy (CDP). Contemporary data also suggest that a multidisciplinary approach to the management of BCRL should begin prior to definitive treatment for breast cancer employing patient-specific surgical, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy paradigms that limit risks. Further, prospective clinical assessments before and after treatment should be employed to diagnose subclinical disease. In those patients who require aggressive locoregional management, prophylactic therapies and the use of CDP can help reduce the long-term sequelae of BCRL.

  5. Breast Cancer-Related Arm Lymphedema: Incidence Rates, Diagnostic Techniques, Optimal Management and Risk Reduction Strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shah, Chirag [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States); Vicini, Frank A., E-mail: fvicini@beaumont.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States)

    2011-11-15

    As more women survive breast cancer, long-term toxicities affecting their quality of life, such as lymphedema (LE) of the arm, gain importance. Although numerous studies have attempted to determine incidence rates, identify optimal diagnostic tests, enumerate efficacious treatment strategies and outline risk reduction guidelines for breast cancer-related lymphedema (BCRL), few groups have consistently agreed on any of these issues. As a result, standardized recommendations are still lacking. This review will summarize the latest data addressing all of these concerns in order to provide patients and health care providers with optimal, contemporary recommendations. Published incidence rates for BCRL vary substantially with a range of 2-65% based on surgical technique, axillary sampling method, radiation therapy fields treated, and the use of chemotherapy. Newer clinical assessment tools can potentially identify BCRL in patients with subclinical disease with prospective data suggesting that early diagnosis and management with noninvasive therapy can lead to excellent outcomes. Multiple therapies exist with treatments defined by the severity of BCRL present. Currently, the standard of care for BCRL in patients with significant LE is complex decongestive physiotherapy (CDP). Contemporary data also suggest that a multidisciplinary approach to the management of BCRL should begin prior to definitive treatment for breast cancer employing patient-specific surgical, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy paradigms that limit risks. Further, prospective clinical assessments before and after treatment should be employed to diagnose subclinical disease. In those patients who require aggressive locoregional management, prophylactic therapies and the use of CDP can help reduce the long-term sequelae of BCRL.

  6. The impact of macroeconomic variables on the evolution of the credit risk rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luminița Gabriela Istrate

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics of the real economy is a major driver of the evolution of arrears at the level of the pool of loans granted to non-financial companies, completed by the financial pressure induced by the monetary conditions. Lending allows on the one hand providing resources for companies that need financing for investment projects, on the other hand, it supports the fund holders to place resources for obtaining profit. The role of the lending policy in the activity of commercial banks is very important, as it may influence both the cost of credits and the loan portfolio quality in the future. The purpose of this research is to find the macroeconomic variables that significantly influence credit risk and to develop a statistical model for predicting the doubtful and non-performing loans rate. Thus, it is envisaged the research of mechanisms by which the dynamics of the real economy and the money market conditions influence the evolution of the credit risk in different business sectors.

  7. Comparative rate and risk factors of recurrent urethral stricture during different surgical procedures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Yu. Pushkar

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective – to identify the major risk factors leading to worse results of surgical treatment in patients with urethral stricture.Subjects and methods. Two hundred and forty-eight patients with urethral stricture underwent different surgical interventions: internal optical urethrotomy (IOU for strictures of different portions of the urethra in 157 patients (the operation was made once in 121 patients, twice in 24 patients, and thrice or more in 12; replacement urethroplasty using a buccal mucosa graft for strictures of the anterior urethra in 46 patients; Turner-Warwick’s anastomotic urethroplasty modified by Webster for strictures (distraction defects of the posterior urethra in 45 patients. The results of surgical treatment were studied using urethrography, uroflowmetry, urethrocystoscopy, the international prostate symptom score, quality of life (QoL questionnaire, and the international index of erectile function (IIEF questionnaire. The role of risk factors for postoperative recurrent urethral stricture was assessed by univariate and multivariate analyses.Results. The rate of recurrent urethral stricture after IOU was 66.9 % (59.5, 87.5, and 100 % after the first, second, third or more subsequent operations, respectively; 12.1 % after all types of urethroplasty, 15.2 % after augmentation urethroplasty, and 8.9 % after anastomotic urethroplasty. The major risk factors of recurrent urethral stricture after IOU were recognized to be the location of urethral stricture in the penile or bulbomembranous portions, a urethral stricture length of > 1 cm, severe urethral lumen narrowing, and performance of 2 or more operations; those after augmentation urethroplasty were previous ineffective treatment, a stricture length of > 4 cm, lichen sclerosus, and smoking; those after anastomotic urethroplasty were previous ineffective treatment, smoking, and a stricture length of > 4 cm.Conclusion. The results of the investigation have shown that only

  8. Comparative rate and risk factors of recurrent urethral stricture during different surgical procedures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Yu. Pushkar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective – to identify the major risk factors leading to worse results of surgical treatment in patients with urethral stricture.Subjects and methods. Two hundred and forty-eight patients with urethral stricture underwent different surgical interventions: internal optical urethrotomy (IOU for strictures of different portions of the urethra in 157 patients (the operation was made once in 121 patients, twice in 24 patients, and thrice or more in 12; replacement urethroplasty using a buccal mucosa graft for strictures of the anterior urethra in 46 patients; Turner-Warwick’s anastomotic urethroplasty modified by Webster for strictures (distraction defects of the posterior urethra in 45 patients. The results of surgical treatment were studied using urethrography, uroflowmetry, urethrocystoscopy, the international prostate symptom score, quality of life (QoL questionnaire, and the international index of erectile function (IIEF questionnaire. The role of risk factors for postoperative recurrent urethral stricture was assessed by univariate and multivariate analyses.Results. The rate of recurrent urethral stricture after IOU was 66.9 % (59.5, 87.5, and 100 % after the first, second, third or more subsequent operations, respectively; 12.1 % after all types of urethroplasty, 15.2 % after augmentation urethroplasty, and 8.9 % after anastomotic urethroplasty. The major risk factors of recurrent urethral stricture after IOU were recognized to be the location of urethral stricture in the penile or bulbomembranous portions, a urethral stricture length of > 1 cm, severe urethral lumen narrowing, and performance of 2 or more operations; those after augmentation urethroplasty were previous ineffective treatment, a stricture length of > 4 cm, lichen sclerosus, and smoking; those after anastomotic urethroplasty were previous ineffective treatment, smoking, and a stricture length of > 4 cm.Conclusion. The results of the investigation have shown that only

  9. Impact of Race/Ethnicity and Socioeconomic Status on Risk-Adjusted Hospital Readmission Rates Following Hip and Knee Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martsolf, Grant R; Barrett, Marguerite L; Weiss, Audrey J; Kandrack, Ryan; Washington, Raynard; Steiner, Claudia A; Mehrotra, Ateev; SooHoo, Nelson F; Coffey, Rosanna

    2016-08-17

    Readmission rates following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) are increasingly used to measure hospital performance. Readmission rates that are not adjusted for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status, patient risk factors beyond a hospital's control, may not accurately reflect a hospital's performance. In this study, we examined the extent to which risk-adjusting for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status affected hospital performance in terms of readmission rates following THA and TKA. We calculated 2 sets of risk-adjusted readmission rates by (1) using the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services standard risk-adjustment algorithm that incorporates patient age, sex, comorbidities, and hospital effects and (2) adding race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status to the model. Using data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, 2011 State Inpatient Databases, we compared the relative performances of 1,194 hospitals across the 2 methods. Addition of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status to the risk-adjustment algorithm resulted in (1) little or no change in the risk-adjusted readmission rates at nearly all hospitals; (2) no change in the designation of the readmission rate as better, worse, or not different from the population mean at >99% of the hospitals; and (3) no change in the excess readmission ratio at >97% of the hospitals. Inclusion of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status in the risk-adjustment algorithm led to a relative-performance change in readmission rates following THA and TKA at socioeconomic status in risk-adjusted THA and TKA readmission rates used for hospital accountability, payment, and public reporting. Prognostic Level III. See instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence. Copyright © 2016 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

  10. Political Awakenings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Franziska Brühwiler

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Le Complot contre l’Amérique de Philip Roth décrit l’initiation politique de ses deux protagonistes, le narrateur Philip et son frère aîné, Sanford. Tandis que ce dernier passe par un processus initiatique quasi classique — il se déroule conformément au schéma tripartite de van Gennep — l’apogée de l’initiation de Philip est marquée par douleur et blessure. Toutefois, tous les deux connaissent seulement une initiation partielle, car le premier doit d’abord admettre ses erreurs tandis que le second va devoir apprendre, non seulement à remettre en cause l’autorité, mais également à développer ses idées de façon indépendante.Philip Roth’s The Plot Against America traces the political awakening of its two child protagonists, the narrator Philip and his elder brother Sanford. While the latter undergoes an initiation process nearly in accordance with the classical tripartite scheme as coined by van Gennep, the height of Philip’s initiation process is marked by physical pain and injury. However, both experience only a partial initiation, since the elder brother will have to recognize his errors and the younger one will first have to learn how to go beyond the mere questioning of authority.

  11. Resting heart rate is a risk factor for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, but not for exacerbations or pneumonia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warnier, Miriam J; Rutten, Frans H; de Boer, Anthonius

    2014-01-01

    increased non-significantly with 7% for every 10 beats/minute increase in resting heart rate (adjusted HR: 1.07 [0.96-1.18], p = 0.208). CONCLUSIONS: Increased resting heart rate is a strong and independent risk factor for all-cause mortality in elderly patients with COPD. An increased resting heart rate...... did not result in an increased risk of exacerbations or pneumonia. This may indicate that the increased mortality risk of COPD is related to non-pulmonary causes. Future randomized controlled trials are needed to investigate whether heart-rate lowering agents are worthwhile for COPD patients....... and information on complications (exacerbation of COPD or pneumonia) by scrutinizing patient files of general practitioners. Multivariable cox regression analysis was performed. RESULTS: During the follow-up 132 (33%) patients died. The overall mortality rate was 50/1000 py (42-59). The major causes of death were...

  12. Science, politics, and health in the brave new world of pharmaceutical carcinogenic risk assessment: technical progress or cycle of regulatory capture?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abraham, John; Ballinger, Rachel

    2012-10-01

    The carcinogenicity (cancer-inducing potential) of pharmaceuticals is an important risk factor for health when considering whether thousands of patients on drug trials or millions/billions of consumers in the marketplace should be exposed to a new drug. Drawing on fieldwork involving over 50 interviews and documentary research spanning 2002-2010 in Europe and the US, and on regulatory capture theory, this article investigates how the techno-regulatory standards for carcinogenicity testing of pharmaceuticals have altered since 1998. It focuses on the replacement of long-term carcinogenicity tests in rodents (especially mice) with shorter-term tests involving genetically-engineered mice (GEM). Based on evidence regarding financial/organizational control, methodological design, and interpretation of the validation and application of these new GEM tests, it is argued that regulatory agencies permitted the drug industry to shape such validation and application in ways that prioritized commercial interests over the need to protect public health. Boundary-work enabling industry scientists to define some standards of public-health policy facilitated such capture. However, as the scientific credibility of GEM tests as tools to protect public health by screening out carcinogens became inescapably problematic, a regulatory resurgence, impelled by reputational concerns, exercised more control over industry's construction and use of the tests, The extensive problems with GEM tests as public-health protective regulatory science raises the spectre that alterations to pharmaceutical carcinogenicity-testing standards since the 1990s may have been boundary-work in which the political project of decreasing the chance that companies' products are defined as carcinogenic has masqueraded as techno-science. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. Effects of Political Knowledge on Political Tolerance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, John Powell

    2018-01-01

    Sexual orientation continues to be an explosive issue in American classrooms. Increasing the political knowledge of students can reduce the volatility of this explosive issue by increasing tolerance toward the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender community. This relationship between political knowledge and political tolerance has been…

  14. About green political parties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orlović Slobodan P.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work the author refers to some legal and political questions in connection with green political parties. Those questions cover: the ideology of green political parties, their number and influence, both in general and in Serbia. The first part of work is generally speaking about political parties - their definition, ideology, role and action. Main thesis in this work is that green political parties, by their appearance, were something new on the political scene. But quickly, because of objective and subjective reasons, they were changing original ideas and were beginning to resemble to all other political parties. In this way, they lost their vanguard and political alternativeness.

  15. Credit risk migration rates modeling as open systems: A micro-simulation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landini, S.; Uberti, M.; Casellina, S.

    2018-05-01

    The last financial crisis of 2008 stimulated the development of new Regulatory Criteria (commonly known as Basel III) that pushed the banking activity to become more prudential, either in the short and the long run. As well known, in 2014 the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) promulgated the new International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS 9) for financial instruments that will become effective in January 2018. Since the delayed recognition of credit losses on loans was identified as a weakness in existing accounting standards, the IASB has introduced an Expected Loss model that requires more timely recognition of credit losses. Specifically, new standards require entities to account both for expected losses from when the impairments are recognized for the first time and for full loan lifetime; moreover, a clear preference toward forward looking models is expressed. In this new framework, it is necessary a re-thinking of the widespread standard theoretical approach on which the well known prudential model is founded. The aim of this paper is then to define an original methodological approach to migration rates modeling for credit risk which is innovative respect to the standard method from the point of view of a bank as well as in a regulatory perspective. Accordingly, the proposed not-standard approach considers a portfolio as an open sample allowing for entries, migrations of stayers and exits as well. While being consistent with the empirical observations, this open-sample approach contrasts with the standard closed-sample method. In particular, this paper offers a methodology to integrate the outcomes of the standard closed-sample method within the open-sample perspective while removing some of the assumptions of the standard method. Three main conclusions can be drawn in terms of economic capital provision: (a) based on the Markovian hypothesis with a-priori absorbing state at default, the standard closed-sample method is to be abandoned

  16. Response rate in the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents – ERICA

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Thiago Luiz Nogueira; Klein, Carlos Henrique; Souza, Amanda de Moura; Barufaldi, Laura Augusta; Abreu, Gabriela de Azevedo; Kuschnir, Maria Cristina Caetano; de Vasconcellos, Mauricio Teixeira Leite; Bloch, Katia Vergetti

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the response rate and characteristics of people who either took part or not in from the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA) , according to information subsets. METHODS ERICA is a school-based, nation-wide investigation with a representative sample of 12 to 17-year-old adolescents attending public or private schools in municipalities with over 100,000 inhabitants in Brazil. Response rate of eligible subjects were calculated according to macro-regions, sex, age, and type of school (public or private). We also calculated the percentages of replacement schools in comparison with the ones originally selected as per the sample design, according to the types of schools in the macro-regions. The subjects and non-subjects were compared according to sex, age, and average body mass indices (kg/m2). RESULTS We had 102,327 eligible adolescents enrolled in the groups drawn. The highest percentage of complete information was obtained for the subset of the questionnaire (72.9%). Complete information regarding anthropometric measurements and the ones from the questionnaire were obtained for 72.0% of the adolescents, and the combination of these data with the 24-hour dietary recall were obtained for 70.3% of the adolescents. Complete information from the questionnaire plus biochemical blood evaluation data were obtained for 52.5% of the morning session adolescents (selected for blood tests). The response percentage in private schools was higher than the one in public schools for most of the combination of information. The ratio of older and male adolescents non-participants was higher than the ratio among participants. CONCLUSIONS The response rate for non-invasive procedures was high. The response rate for blood collection – an invasive procedure that requires a 12-hour fasting period and the informed consent form from legal guardians – was lower. The response rate observed in public schools was lower than in the private ones, and

  17. Response rate in the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents - ERICA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Thiago Luiz Nogueira; Klein, Carlos Henrique; Souza, Amanda de Moura; Barufaldi, Laura Augusta; Abreu, Gabriela de Azevedo; Kuschnir, Maria Cristina Caetano; de Vasconcellos, Mauricio Teixeira Leite; Bloch, Katia Vergetti

    2016-02-01

    OBJECTIVE To describe the response rate and characteristics of people who either took part or not in from the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA) , according to information subsets. METHODS ERICA is a school-based, nation-wide investigation with a representative sample of 12 to 17-year-old adolescents attending public or private schools in municipalities with over 100,000 inhabitants in Brazil. Response rate of eligible subjects were calculated according to macro-regions, sex, age, and type of school (public or private). We also calculated the percentages of replacement schools in comparison with the ones originally selected as per the sample design, according to the types of schools in the macro-regions. The subjects and non-subjects were compared according to sex, age, and average body mass indices (kg/m2). RESULTS We had 102,327 eligible adolescents enrolled in the groups drawn. The highest percentage of complete information was obtained for the subset of the questionnaire (72.9%). Complete information regarding anthropometric measurements and the ones from the questionnaire were obtained for 72.0% of the adolescents, and the combination of these data with the 24-hour dietary recall were obtained for 70.3% of the adolescents. Complete information from the questionnaire plus biochemical blood evaluation data were obtained for 52.5% of the morning session adolescents (selected for blood tests). The response percentage in private schools was higher than the one in public schools for most of the combination of information. The ratio of older and male adolescents non-participants was higher than the ratio among participants. CONCLUSIONS The response rate for non-invasive procedures was high. The response rate for blood collection - an invasive procedure that requires a 12-hour fasting period and the informed consent form from legal guardians - was lower. The response rate observed in public schools was lower than in the private ones, and that may

  18. Prevalence rates and epidemiological risk factors for astigmatism in Singapore school children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Louis; Saw, Seang-Mei; Carkeet, Andrew; Chan, Wai-Ying; Wu, Hui-Min; Tan, Donald

    2002-09-01

    This study examined the prevalence rate of astigmatism and its epidemiological risk factors in Singapore school children. In a study of school children aged 7 to 9 years old in two schools in Singapore in 1999, a detailed questionnaire was administered to parents regarding reading or close-work habits, past history of close-work, family history, and socioeconomic factors. Cycloplegic refraction was performed five times in each eye. Defining astigmatism as worse than or equal to 0.5, 0.75, and 1 D cylinder in the right eye, the prevalence of astigmatism was calculated. The study population consisted of 1028 children. The prevalence rate of astigmatism (worse than or equal to 1 D cylinder) was 19.2% (95% confidence interval, 16.8 to 21.6). This was not different between genders, ethnic groups, or age (p > 0.05). With-the-rule astigmatism was more common than against-the-rule astigmatism. The prevalence of astigmatism and myopia was 9.8% (95% confidence interval, 8.0 to 11.6). A high AC/A ratio was associated (p = 0.003) with astigmatism, even after exclusion of myopic children. On vectorial analysis, J0 and J45 were associated with the number of hours of playing video games, whereas J45 was also associated with computer use. Only J45 was associated to male gender, a high AC/A ratio, and a family history of myopia. The prevalence rate of astigmatism (> or = 1 D) was 19%. Playing video games and computer use may be associated with astigmatism severity, although the presence of astigmatism (> or = 1 D) was not associated with any nearwork factors. A family history of myopia was associated with oblique astigmatism severity. A high AC/A ratio is associated with astigmatism, and this requires further investigation.

  19. The Role of the Risk-Neutral Jump Size Distribution in Single-Factor Interest Rate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Gómez-Valle

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We obtain a result that relates the risk-neutral jump size of interest rates with yield curve data. This function is unobservable; therefore, this result opens a way to estimate the jump size directly from data in the markets together with the risk-neutral drift and jump intensity estimations. Then, we investigate the finite sample performance of this approach with a test problem. Moreover, we analyze the effect of estimating the risk-neutral jump size instead of assuming that it is artificially absorbed by the jump intensity, as usual in the interest rate literature. Finally, an application to US Treasury Bill data is also illustrated.

  20. Strategic political postures and political market orientation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ormrod, Robert P.; Henneberg, Stephan C.

    2010-01-01

    Recently, the areas of strategic political marketing and political market orientation have been the subject of several conceptual articles which have provided the theoretical foundations for further empirical work. However, despite the close conceptual relatedness of the proposed concepts...... by developing an integrated concept of political marketing strategy using two complementary frameworks, namely Strategic Political Postures (SPP) and Political Market Orientation (PMO). We introduce the two main concepts and derive for each of the strategic posture-specific PMO profiles as well as inter...

  1. A quest for the right order : biodegradation rates in the scope of environmental risk assessment of chemicals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blok, Johan

    2001-01-01

    The biodegradation of chemicals in sewage treatment plants is a key issue of environmental risk assessment. To predict the residual concentration the rate of the biodegradation process has to be estimated. This rate is the result of microbial adaptation of the micro-flora in the system. Therefore

  2. Defining Political Marketing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ormrod, Robert P.

    ’ and ‘narrow’ interpretations of political marketing, the nature of the political marketing exchange, political relationship marketing and how one can integrate the stakeholder concept into an understanding of political marketing. Finally, we propose a definition of political marketing that differs from......The aim of this working paper is to develop a definition of political marketing that builds on the political rather than commercial marketing literature. This aim is motivated by the need to make explicit our understanding of what political marketing is, a necessary exercise when discussing theory......, concepts and empirical methods in political marketing. We first present five existing definitions of political marketing that have been selected to represent advances in research from the origins of academic research into political marketing in the mid-1970’s to the present day. After this we discuss ‘wide...

  3. 'When you use the term 'long term', how long is that term'. Risk, Exclusion, and the Politics of Knowledge Production in Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste Management Policy Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stanley, Anna [Univ. of Guelph (Canada). Dept. of Geography

    2006-09-15

    Risk operates within Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste (NFW) management policy making as a heuristic for knowledge production about its effects which reconciles the knowledge of the nuclear industry with the outcomes of the NFW management process. In so doing it marginalizes the present and historical experiences of Aboriginal peoples with the nuclear industry, and removes from view the ways in which they have been implicated in the geography and political economy of the nuclear industry. Risk is a discursive form that protects a particular group's claims about the effects of NFW by providing it a universalizing epistemological structure with which to obscure its connection to context. Further risk discourse provides the nuclear industry with a conceptual vocabulary that deliberately casts all competing knowledge as perceptions, values, or as an object of inquiry. The arguments of Aboriginal peoples about the residual effects of radiation in their lands which hosted nuclear activities, such as uranium mining and disposal, have no representation in how the discourse of risk defines and represents knowledge, and thus no purchase in the policy debate. As a result the challenge they present to the nuclear industry's claims are contained. The arrangements which permit the unloading of the negative effects of nuclear power generation onto Aboriginal peoples are thus reproduced (both materially and conceptually), but not shown, by the policy making process and likely, its outcome. In order to raise critical questions about the democratic abilities of risk, this paper has examined the role of 'risk' in Canadian NFW policy making. I have shown how when the politics of knowledge production within the philosophy of risk is analyzed, and the use and role of the notion of risk are interrogated, difficult questions are posed for the democratic potential of risk. I have suggested, through an analysis of the NWMO's representations of Aboriginal content in their

  4. Brazilian women in politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, T G

    1987-01-01

    Women are gradually gaining influence in Brazilian politics, especially since recent advances in the women's movement, but they still play a limited role. There have been journals devoted to feminism and some notable feminists since 1850. In 1932 suffragettes in Brazil gained women the right to vote. Women's associations burgeoned in the 1940s and 1950s, culminating in a peak in number of women in national elected positions in 1965. A repressive military regime reversed the process, which resumed in 1975. 1975 was also significant for the Brazilian women's movement because of the U.N. Women's Year. Several large, influential feminist political action groups were formed, typically by upper class women with leftist views, although some church and union groups from lower classes also appeared. In 1979-1981, the coherence of these groups fell into schism and fragmentation, because of disagreements over the feminist political doctrines and roles, views on legality of abortion, and special interest groups such as lesbians. Another bitter dispute is opposition by leftist women to BEMFAM, the Brazilian Society of Family Welfare, which provides family planning for the poor: leftists oppose BEMFAM because it is supported by funds from "imperialist" countries such as the U.S. There are several types of feminists groups: those that emphasize health, sexuality and violence; those composed of lesbians; those originating from lower classes and unions; publicly instituted organizations. Brazilian law forbids discrimination against women holding public office, but in reality very few women actually do hold office, except for mayors of small towns and a few administrators of the Education and Social Security ministries. Political office in Brazil is gained by clientism, and since women rarely hold powerful positions in business, they are outsiders of the system. Brazilian women have achieved much, considering the low female literacy rate and traditional power system, but their

  5. Interplay Between Politics and Sport in Political Science Theories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Kustec Lipicer

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Times when relations between politics and sports did not exist – be it in everyday practices or within scientific research – is definitely long gone, if they ever even existed. Nevertheless, it seems today that, especially within scientific research, these relations do not receive appropriate attention in the territories of former socialist sports superpowers, being a priori denied and considered as unimportant. That is why the key motive of this article is to initiate a discussion about the relevance of knowledge and research of the relations between politics and sport from two perspectives – the existing world-wide political science research experiences gained so far and already conducted researches in the territory of former Yugoslavia. In doing so, we first theoretically define the context of sports and politics, and then with the use of the literature review method analyse their mutual connectivity in the world and, more narrowly, within the work of the scientific community in the region of former Yugoslavia. Based on the gained conclusions which confirm a tight and constant, but also often abstract and flat-rate understood interplay between both analysed phenomena, a special typology for their in-depth and political-science-focused study is delivered. It is believed that distinctions between political, polity and policy approaches to sport decisively influence the mode of their future interplay.

  6. Reclaiming hope: Affect, temporality, politics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taş, B.

    2016-01-01

    The critical task I take up in this research is to reconceptualize hope as an affective orientation in time, which requires remaining open to the risks that the unknowability of the future entails. I consider this opening a political contestation that is necessary to critique the current

  7. Community characteristics, conservative ideology, and child abuse rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breyer, Rebekah J; MacPhee, David

    2015-03-01

    Authoritarian ideology, including religious conservativism, endorses obedience to authority and physical punishment of children. Although this association has been studied at the level of the family, little research has been conducted on whether conservativism in the broader community context correlates with the mistreatment of children. The purpose of this study was to determine whether this relation between conservativism and physical punishment of children extends to child abuse rates at the community level. Predictors included county-level religious and political conservativism and demographic variables. Political and religious conservativism covaried, and both were inversely related to child abuse rates. Population density was strongly related to rates of maltreatment and with demographic factors controlled, religious conservativism but not political conservativism continued to predict rates of child abuse. The results suggest that community factors related to social disorganization may be more important than religious or political affiliation in putting children at risk for maltreatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Association between Carotid Intima Media Thickness and Heart Rate Variability in Adults at Increased Cardiovascular Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ovidiu C. Baltatu

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Atherosclerotic carotid intima-media thickness (IMT may be associated with alterations in the sensitivity of carotid baroreceptors. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between carotid IMT and the autonomic modulation of heart rate variability (HRV.Methods: A total of 101 subjects were enrolled in this prospective observational study. The carotid IMT was determined by duplex ultrasonography. The cardiac autonomic function was determined through HRV measures during the Deep Breathing Test. Linear regression models, adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, body mass index, waist-hip-ratio, and left ventricular ejection fraction were used to evaluate the association between HRV parameters and carotid IMT.Results: Participants had a mean age of 60.4 ± 13.4 years and an estimated 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD risk score (using the Pooled Cohort Equations of 16.4 ± 17. The mean carotid media thickness was highest (0.90 ± 0.19 mm in the first quartile of the standard deviation of all RR intervals (SDNN (19.7 ± 5.1 ms and progressively declined in each subsequent quartile to 0.82 ± 0.21 mm, 0.81 ± 0.16 mm, and 0.68 ± 0.19 in quartiles 2 (36.5 ± 5.9 ms, 3 (57.7 ± 6.2 ms and 4 (100.9 ± 22.2 ms, respectively. In multivariable adjusted models, there was a statistical significant association between SDNN and carotid IMT (OR −0.002; 95%CI −0.003 to −0.001, p = 0.005. The same significant association was found between carotid IMT and other measures of HRV, including coefficient of variation of RR intervals (CV and dispersion of points along the line of identity (SD2.Conclusions: In a cohort of individuals at increased cardiovascular risk, carotid IMT as a marker of subclinical atherosclerosis was associated with alterations of HRV indicating an impaired cardiac autonomic control, independently of other cardiovascular risk factors.

  9. Language and Politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chimombo, Moira

    1999-01-01

    Surveys the interrelationship between language and politics. Touches on the context of political discourse, or political culture and ideology in new and old democracies and the reemerging manifestations of totalitarianism, censorship, and linguistic imperialism; then examines selected linguistic features of political discourse and their…

  10. Lifetime radiation risks from low-dose rate radionuclides in beagles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldman, M.; Rosenblatt, L.S.

    1985-01-01

    One of the largest, long-term (25-yr) animal studies on the effects of low-dose internal irradiation is almost completed. Some 335 beagles were given continuous exposure to graded 90 Sr [low linear energy transfer (LET)] in their diets (D-dogs) through adulthood. A second group (R-dogs) was given fractionated doses of 225 Ra (high LET) as young adults. A third group of 44 was given a single injection of 90 Sr as adults (S-dogs) to compare single to continuous dosages. All dogs were followed through their lifetimes. Only one of the 848 dogs is still alive. The animals were whole-body counted over their entire life span and were examined frequently for assessment of medical status. There were no acute radiation lethalities. Analyses of the large data base from these dogs have begun and preliminary indications are that 90 Sr, which was tested over a 1500-fold skeletal dose rate range, does not cause significant life shortening at average accumulation skeletal doses of ∼2500 rads (25 Gy) and that a curvilinear dose response curve for life shortening was seen at higher accumulation doses. The data will be discussed in terms of modern epidemiological concepts and quantifications will be related to certain parameters of human risk from acute or chronic radiation exposures

  11. Business travel and self-rated health, obesity, and cardiovascular disease risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Catherine A; Rundle, Andrew G

    2011-04-01

    To assess associations between extent of travel for business and health. Associations between business travel and cardiovascular disease risk factors were assessed using medical record data from 13,057 patients provided by EHE International, Inc. Compared with light travelers (1 to 6 nights per month), nontravelers were more likely to report poor/fair health (odds ratio = 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.33 to 1.87) and the odds ratios increased with increasing travel, reaching 2.61 (95% CI: 1.57 to 4.33) among extensive travelers (>20 nights per month). Compared with light travelers, the odds ratios for obesity were highest among nontravelers (odds ratio = 1.33; 95% CI: 1.18 to 1.50) and extensive travelers (odds ratio = 1.92; 95% CI: 1.25 to 2.94). Although the differences were small, nontravelers and extensive travelers had the highest diastolic blood pressure and lowest high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. Poor self-rated health and obesity are associated with extensive business travel.

  12. Rate of Corneal Collagen Crosslinking Redo in Private Practice: Risk Factors and Safety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joelle Antoun

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To report the rate of progression of keratectasia after primary crosslinking (CXL and evaluate the safety and efficiency of CXL redo. Materials and Methods. We conducted a retrospective analysis of the patients who underwent CXL between 2010 and 2013 at the Beirut Eye Specialist Hospital, Lebanon. Progression of keratectasia was based on the presence of an increase in maximum keratometry of 1.00 D, a change in the map difference between two consecutive topographies of 1.00 D, a deterioration of visual acuity, or any change in the refraction. Primary and redo CXL were done using the same protocol. Results. Among the 221 eyes of 130 patients who underwent CXL, 7 eyes (3.17% of five patients met the criteria of progression. All patients reported a history of allergic conjunctivitis and eye rubbing and progressed within 9 to 48 months. No complications were noted and all patients were stable 1 year after CXL redo. Conclusion. Allergic conjunctivitis and eye rubbing were the only risk factors associated with keratoconus progression after CXL. A close followup is thus mandatory, even years after the procedure. CXL redo seems to be a safe and efficient technique to halt the progression after a primary CXL.

  13. Statewide prevalence of school children at risk of anaphylaxis and rate of adrenaline autoinjector activation in Victorian government schools, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loke, Paxton; Koplin, Jennifer; Beck, Cara; Field, Michael; Dharmage, Shyamali C; Tang, Mimi L K; Allen, Katrina J

    2016-08-01

    The prevalence of school students at risk of anaphylaxis in Victoria is unknown and has not been previously studied. Similarly, rates of adrenaline autoinjector usage in the school environment have yet to be determined given increasing prescription rates. We sought to determine time trends in prevalence of school children at risk of anaphylaxis across all year levels and the annual usage rate of adrenaline autoinjectors in the school setting relative to the number of students at risk of anaphylaxis. Statewide surveys from more than 1,500 government schools including more than 550,000 students were used and prevalence rates (%) with 95% CIs were calculated. The overall prevalence of students at risk of anaphylaxis has increased 41% from 0.98% (95% CI, 0.95-1.01) in 2009 to 1.38% (95% CI, 1.35-1.41) in 2014. There was a significant drop in reporting of anaphylaxis risk with transition from the final year of primary school to the first year of secondary school, suggesting a change in parental reporting of anaphylaxis risk among secondary school students. The number of adrenaline autoinjectors activated per 1000 students at risk of anaphylaxis ranged from 6 to 8 per year, with consistently higher activation use in secondary school students than in primary school students. Statewide prevalence of anaphylaxis risk has increased in children attending Victorian government schools. However, adrenaline autoinjector activation has remained fairly stable despite known increase in the rates of prescription. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. A quantified risk-scoring system and rating model for postsurgical gastroparesis syndrome in gastric cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiao-Dong; Mao, Chen-Chen; Zhang, Wei-Teng; Lin, Ji; Wu, Rui-Sen; Zhang, Feng-Min; Sun, Xiang-Wei; Chi, Chu-Huai; Shen, Xian; Wang, Peng-Fei

    2017-09-01

    The study aimed to investigate the relationship between obesity and postsurgical gastroparesis syndrome (PGS), and to construct a scoring system and a risk model to identify patients at high risk. A total of 634 patients were retrospectively analyzed. Clinical characteristics were evaluated via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Logistic analysis was performed to determine the independent predictive indicators of PGS. A scoring system consisting of these indicators and a risk-rating model were constructed and evaluated via ROC curve analysis. Based on the ROC curves, the visceral fat area (VFA) cutoff value for PGS was 94.00. Logistic analysis showed that visceral obesity (VFA ≥ 94.00 cm 2 ), the reconstruction technique, and tumor size were independent prognostic factors for PGS. The scoring system could predict PGS reliably with a high area under the ROC curve ([AUC] = 0.769). A high-risk rating had a high AUC (AUC I = 0.56, AUC II = 0.65, and AUC III = 0.77), indicating that the risk-rating model could effectively screen patients at high risk of PGS. Visceral obesity defined by VFA effectively predicted PGS. Our scoring system may be a reliable instrument for identifying patients most at risk of PGS. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Defining Political Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Ormrod, Robert P.

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this working paper is to develop a definition of political marketing that builds on the political rather than commercial marketing literature. This aim is motivated by the need to make explicit our understanding of what political marketing is, a necessary exercise when discussing theory, concepts and empirical methods in political marketing. We first present five existing definitions of political marketing that have been selected to represent advances in research from the origins o...

  16. Analysis of primary risk factors for oral cancer from select US states with increasing rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O'Malley Susan

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objectives To examine the primary risk factor for oral cancer in the US, smoking and tobacco use, among the specific US states that experienced short-term increases in oral cancer incidence and mortality. Methods Population-based data on oral cancer morbidity and mortality in the US were obtained from the National Cancer Institute's (NCI Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER database for analysis of recent trends. Data were also obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS to measure current and former trends of tobacco usage. To comprehensive measures of previous state tobacco use and tobacco-related policies, the Initial Outcomes Index (IOI, 1992-1993 and the Strength of Tobacco Control index (SoTC, 1999-2000 were also used for evaluation and comparison. Results Analysis of the NCI-SEER data confirmed a previous report of geographic increases in oral cancer and demonstrated these were state-specific, were not regional, and were unrelated to previously observed increases among females and minorities. Analysis of the CDC-BRFSS data revealed these states had relatively higher percentages of smokers currently, as well as historically. In addition, analysis of the IOI and SoTC indexes suggest that many factors, including cigarette pricing, taxes and home or workplace bans, may have had significant influence on smoking prevalence in these areas. Trend analysis of these data uncovered a recent and significant reversal in smoking rates that suggest oral cancer incidence and mortality may also begin to decline in the near future. Conclusion Due to the rising costs of health care in the US and the limited resources available for health prevention efforts, it is essential to organize and direct more effective efforts by public health officials and epidemiologists, as well as funding from local, state and federal governments, to reduce and eliminate identified

  17. Political entrepreneurship and bidding for political monopoly

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Wohlgemuth

    2000-01-01

    An analytical framework for dealing with political entrepreneurship and reform is proposed which is based on some new combinations of Schumpeterian political economy, an extended version of Tullock's model of democracy as franchise-bidding for natural monopoly and some basic elements of New Institutional Economics. It is shown that problems of insufficient award criteria and incomplete contracts which may arise in economic bidding schemes, also - and even more so - characterise political comp...

  18. Radioablation of liver malignancies with interstitial high-dose-rate brachytherapy. Complications and risk factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mohnike, Konrad; Wolf, Steffen; Damm, Robert; Seidensticker, Max; Seidensticker, Ricarda; Fischbach, Frank; Pech, Maciej; Ricke, Jens [Otto-von-Guericke-Universitaet, Klinik fuer Radiologie und Nuklearmedizin, Universitaetsklinikum Magdeburg A.oe.R., Magdeburg (Germany); Peters, Nils; Hass, Peter; Gademann, Guenther [Otto-von-Guericke-Universitaet, Klinik fuer Strahlentherapie, Universitaetsklinikum Magdeburg A.oe.R., Magdeburg (Germany)

    2016-05-15

    To evaluate complications and identify risk factors for adverse events in patients undergoing high-dose-rate interstitial brachytherapy (iBT). Data from 192 patients treated in 343 CT- or MRI-guided interventions from 2006-2009 at our institution were analyzed. In 41 %, the largest tumor treated was ≥ 5 cm, 6 % of the patients had tumors ≥ 10 cm. Prior to iBT, 60 % of the patients had chemotherapy, 22 % liver resection, 19 % thermoablation or transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Safety was the primary endpoint; survival data were obtained as the secondary endpoints. During follow-up, MRI or CT imaging was performed and clinical and laboratory parameters were obtained. The rate of major complications was below 5 %. Five major bleedings (1.5 %) occurred. The frequency of severe bleeding was significantly higher in patients with advanced liver cirrhosis. One patient developed signs of a nonclassic radiation-induced liver disease. In 3 patients, symptomatic gastrointestinal (GI) ulcers were detected. A dose exposure to the GI wall above 14 Gy/ml was a reliable threshold to predict ulcer formation. A combination of C-reactive protein ≥ 165 mg/l and/or leukocyte count ≥ 12.7 Gpt/l on the second day after the intervention predicted infection (sensitivity 90.0 %; specificity 92.8 %.) Two patients (0.6 %) died within 30 days. Median overall survival after the first liver treatment was 20.1 months for all patients and the local recurrence-free surviving proportion was 89 % after 12 months. Image-guided iBT yields a low rate of major complications and is effective. (orig.) [German] Evaluierung der Komplikationsrate und Identifizierung von Risikofaktoren fuer Komplikationen und Nebenwirkungen bei Patienten mit Lebermalignomen, die mit der hochdosierten interstitiellen Brachytherapie (iBT) behandelt wurden. Von 2006 bis 2009 wurden 192 Patienten in 343 CT- oder MRT-gefuehrten Interventionen behandelt und deren Daten ausgewertet. Der groesste behandelte Tumor war in

  19. Exchange rate risks in trade and investment between South Africa and the developed countries / by Cui Zhang

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Cui

    2009-01-01

    The current international monetary system is very different from that of a few decades ago. Many of the old restrictions that had been placed on currency and capital movements between countries have fallen away in favour of a much more liberal international payment and investment system. The global financial arena is now characterized by greater currency instability, volatility and heightened financial risks. Exchange Rate risk is one of the complex topics in the economic world. Since there a...

  20. Reduced glomerular filtration rate and its association with clinical outcome in older patients at risk of vascular events: secondary analysis.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Ford, Ian

    2009-01-20

    Reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is associated with increased cardiovascular risk in young and middle aged individuals. Associations with cardiovascular disease and mortality in older people are less clearly established. We aimed to determine the predictive value of the GFR for mortality and morbidity using data from the 5,804 participants randomized in the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER).

  1. (Un- Political Ethics, (un- Ethical Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolff-Michael Roth

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available Ethics and politics are normally con­sidered domains that do not mix, in fact, domains that have little to do with one another. In this article, I provide four factual fictions that show how at the university, research ethics and politics are intertwined. Politics appears to be used for the sole purpose of constructing and maintaining con­trol over the research process and its products. Ultimately, even ethics reviews of proposed research studies are caught up in the politics of power. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0403357

  2. Linking Political Systems and War Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harste, Gorm

    2009-01-01

    military coercion to be the appropriate mean. Using the system theory and the theory of systemic risks displayed by the German sociologist Niklas Luhmann the article demonstrates how military systems due to their own autonomy and autopoiesis do not fit into the idea of political government......Decisive parts of the Western political system have demonstrated a seemingly surprising misinterpretation of military might. As Madelaine Albright has suggested, the mighty perceived themselves as "almighty". Political power seems to have invested in instrumental coercive power relations and found....... The Clausewitzian ideal of a political system that could continue its power games by means of war was moderated by Clausewitz' own analysis of "friction". How can a political system be so blind towards the possibilities of another system? What are the risks of systemic blind spots? The argument of the paper...

  3. A probabilistic analysis reveals fundamental limitations with the environmental impact quotient and similar systems for rating pesticide risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert K.D. Peterson

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Comparing risks among pesticides has substantial utility for decision makers. However, if rating schemes to compare risks are to be used, they must be conceptually and mathematically sound. We address limitations with pesticide risk rating schemes by examining in particular the Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ using, for the first time, a probabilistic analytic technique. To demonstrate the consequences of mapping discrete risk ratings to probabilities, adjusted EIQs were calculated for a group of 20 insecticides in four chemical classes. Using Monte Carlo simulation, adjusted EIQs were determined under different hypothetical scenarios by incorporating probability ranges. The analysis revealed that pesticides that have different EIQs, and therefore different putative environmental effects, actually may be no different when incorporating uncertainty. The EIQ equation cannot take into account uncertainty the way that it is structured and provide reliable quotients of pesticide impact. The EIQ also is inconsistent with the accepted notion of risk as a joint probability of toxicity and exposure. Therefore, our results suggest that the EIQ and other similar schemes be discontinued in favor of conceptually sound schemes to estimate risk that rely on proper integration of toxicity and exposure information.

  4. Rates of Delirium Diagnosis Do Not Improve with Emergency Risk Screening: Results of the Emergency Department Delirium Initiative Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arendts, Glenn; Love, Jennefer; Nagree, Yusuf; Bruce, David; Hare, Malcolm; Dey, Ian

    2017-08-01

    To determine whether a bundled risk screening and warning or action card system improves formal delirium diagnosis and person-centered outcomes in hospitalized older adults. Prospective trial with sequential introduction of screening and interventional processes. Two tertiary referral hospitals in Australia. Individuals aged 65 and older presenting to the emergency department (ED) and not requiring immediate resuscitation (N = 3,905). Formal ED delirium screening algorithm and use of a risk warning card with a recommended series of actions for the prevention and management of delirium during the subsequent admission MEASUREMENTS: Delirium diagnosis at hospital discharge, proportion discharged to new assisted living arrangements, in-hospital complications (use of sedation, falls, aspiration pneumonia, death), hospital length of stay. Participants with a positive risk screen were significantly more likely (relative risk = 6.0, 95% confidence interval = 4.9-7.3) to develop delirium, and the proportion of at-risk participants with a positive screen was constant across three study phases. Delirium detection rate in participants undergoing the final intervention (Phase 3) was 12.1% (a 2% absolute and 17% relative increase from the baseline rate) but this was not statistically significant (P = .29), and a similar relative increase was seen over time in participants not receiving the intervention CONCLUSION: A risk screening and warning or action card intervention in the ED did not significantly improve rates of delirium detection or other important outcomes. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

  5. Some Correlates of Media Political Advertising Credibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Einsiedel, E. F.; Casey, William

    Data collected as part of a larger survey that focused on the 1978 gubernatorial race in New York State were used in a study of political advertising and media credibility. Specifically, the study examined the factors that influence an individual's rating of the helpfulness of political advertising and related these factors to voting patterns. A…

  6. Implementation Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hegland, Troels Jacob; Raakjær, Jesper

    2008-01-01

    ABSTRACT: Denmark is among the more loyal European Union (EU) member states when it comes to national implementation of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). However, even in Denmark several mechanisms contribute to sub-optimal implementation of the CFP. Looking at implementation problems for a rela......ABSTRACT: Denmark is among the more loyal European Union (EU) member states when it comes to national implementation of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). However, even in Denmark several mechanisms contribute to sub-optimal implementation of the CFP. Looking at implementation problems...... for a relatively loyal member state, this chapter sheds critical light on national implementation of the CFP in the EU as a whole. The chapter initially provides a description of the institutional set-up for fisheries policy-making and implementation in Denmark, including a short historical account....../networks and prevailing discourses. The inability of the EU to ensure that the conservation goals agreed at the EU level are loyally pursued during national implementation is one of the reasons why the EU has been struggling to keep fishing mortality rates at a sustainable level....

  7. Relationship of detection rate of PET cancer screening examinees and risk factors. Analysis of background of examinees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shibata, Koji; Uno, Kimiichi; Arai, Masami; Matsuura, Masaaki; Yoshida, Teruhiko; Momose, Toshimitsu; Ohtomo, Kuni

    2011-01-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET) cancer screening is performed widely in Japan as opportunistic screening, but no study has focused on the correlation with various cancer risk factors and the seeking bias of examinees and cancer detection rate. Analyzing our large series of PET cancer screening data, correlations with cancer detection rates according to general cancer risk factors and PET detection survey were reviewed, and the selection bias of the medical examinees was determined. 19189 examinees who underwent PET cancer screening were enrolled. Using logistic-regression analysis, we analyzed correlations between smoking history/drinking history/cancer family history and detection rates of thyroid cancer/breast cancer/colorectal cancer/lung cancer, which are the main malignancies detected in PET cancer screening. In addition, we evaluated seeking bias of examinees, analyzing correlations between the presence of cancer risk factors and prior screening checkups at other institutions to our PET cancer screening using a matched case-control study. Cancer detection rates by FDG-PET were 1.17% (224/19189), being much higher than those of standard cancer mass screenings. In males, statistically significant correlations were seen between lung cancer and smoking, and between prostate cancer and a family history of prostate cancer, but not between the detection rates of three other types of cancer (thyroid cancer/lung cancer/colorectal cancer) and other cancer risk factors. In females, detection rates of four types of cancer (thyroid cancer/lung cancer/colorectal cancer/breast cancer) were significantly higher in the examinees without cancer risks, and subgroup analysis according to types of cancer did not indicate significant correlations either. The matched case-control study evaluating seeking bias indicated that a significant proportion of the examinees with cancer risks had undergone prior cancer screening at other institutions. Our study indicated that there was

  8. Exploring Women's Understanding of Politics, Political Contestation ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Exploring Women's Understanding of Politics, Political Contestation and Gender Transformation in the Caribbean. IDRC's Democratic Governance, Women's Rights and Gender Equality initiative is supporting a body of comparative research on whether and how democratic processes and institutions are responding to ...

  9. Civic political culture, participatory governance and political ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study x-rayed the significance of civic political culture on participatory governance and its potentialities on political development. It adopted theoretical postulations in analyzing the subject matter. The analytical model showed a diagrammatic presentation of the relationship among participant culture features, elements ...

  10. Civic Political Culture, Participatory Governance and Political ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prof

    Indexed African Journals Online: www.ajol.info as its potential contribution to political development in Nigeria-as it will be applicable to other developing countries of the world. This study provided theoretical postulations in analysing the notion of participatory governance, and linking the research problem (civic political ...

  11. Implications of supermarket access, neighbourhood walkability and poverty rates for diabetes risk in an employee population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrick, Cynthia J; Yount, Byron W; Eyler, Amy A

    2016-08-01

    Diabetes is a growing public health problem, and the environment in which people live and work may affect diabetes risk. The goal of the present study was to examine the association between multiple aspects of environment and diabetes risk in an employee population. This was a retrospective cross-sectional analysis. Home environment variables were derived using employees' zip code. Descriptive statistics were run on all individual- and zip-code-level variables, stratified by diabetes risk and worksite. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was then conducted to determine the strongest associations with diabetes risk. Data were collected from employee health fairs in a Midwestern health system, 2009-2012. The data set contains 25 227 unique individuals across four years of data. From this group, using an individual's first entry into the database, 15 522 individuals had complete data for analysis. The prevalence of high diabetes risk in this population was 2·3 %. There was significant variability in individual- and zip-code-level variables across worksites. From the multivariable analysis, living in a zip code with higher percentage of poverty and higher walk score was positively associated with high diabetes risk, while living in a zip code with higher supermarket density was associated with a reduction in high diabetes risk. Our study underscores the important relationship between poverty, home neighbourhood environment and diabetes risk, even in a relatively healthy employed population, and suggests a role for the employer in promoting health.

  12. A multicriteria approach for rating the credit risk of financial institutions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baourakis, G.; Conisescu, M.; Dijk, van G.; Pardalos, P.; Zopounidis, C.

    2009-01-01

    Within the new bank regulatory context, the assessment of the credit risk of financial institutions is an important issue for supervising authorities and investors. This study explores the possibility of a developing risk assessment model for financial institutions using a multicriteria

  13. Political Values or the Value of Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simoska, Emilija

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This essay was motivated by the gap between proclaimed democratic principles and the perceptions of politics which are exhibited by the citizens in transitional countries -more specifically in the Republic of Macedonia. It is based on research data collected in the past few decades, which illustrate that, in their political actions, the citizens are highly motivated by personal benefits and profits, rather than by their internalized values and ideologies. Non-democratic, authoritarian values prevail, while politics is perceived as a value itself, in the most materialistic meaning of the word. It creates a suitable milieu for growth of corruption, nepotism and clientelism. The authors conclude that such a circulus vitsiosus is a corner stone of the Macedonian political regime, and an enormous obstacle for the advancement of the participative, democratic political culture in reality, in spite of its formal acceptance.

  14. Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

    2016-01-01

    Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

  15. The Relationship between the Risk of a Change of the Interest Rate and the Age of Entrepreneurs among Slovak SMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sobeková Majková Monika

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Young entrepreneurs and start-up founders are considered to be a drivers of innovation which is an important element of knowledge economy and competitiveness of each country. But their early age could be perceived as a factor causing the increasing impact of the credit risk because young entrepreneurs usually have a short company history, weak capital power and a lack of the guarantees. The main objective of this paper is to bring scientific evidence that the age of the entrepreneur should be considered as a factor with the significant impact on one part of the credit risk of a company– the risk of a change of the interest rate. The research was carried out among 438 Slovak companies in 2016. Based on Pearson´s chi-square analysis of the results of our research, we bring statistical evidence that age has a significant impact on the ability of the company to protect the firm against the change of the interest rate. We also found out that there is dependence between the age of the owner and the opinion that SMEs in the other EU countries have better loan conditions, especially lower interest rates, than Slovak SMEs. Research findings indicate that young entrepreneurs have problems with obtaining capital and increasing interest rates and collaterals because of their higher risk profile. But effective state support of young and innovative companies through venture financing can lead to increasing global competitiveness of the Slovak Republic.

  16. Non-Expert Ratings of Infant and Parent Emotion: Concordance with Expert Coding and Relevance to Early Autism Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Jason K.; Haltigan, John D.; Brewster, Ryan; Jaccard, James; Messinger, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    This study investigated a novel approach to obtaining data on parent and infant emotion during the Face-to-Face/Still-Face paradigm, and examined these data in light of previous findings regarding early autism risk. One-hundred and eighty eight non-expert students rated 38 parents and infant siblings of children who did (20) or did not (18) have…

  17. The impact of lifestyle risk factors on the rate of infection after surgery for a fracture of the ankle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, L L; Møller, A M; Brorson, S

    2017-01-01

    .PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed all patients who underwent internal fixation of a fracture of the ankle between 2008 and 2013. The primary outcome was the rate of deep infection and the secondary outcome was any surgical site infection (SSI). Associations with the risk factors and possible...

  18. 12 CFR 615.5182 - Interest rate risk management by associations and other Farm Credit System institutions other...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate risk management by associations and other Farm Credit System institutions other than banks. 615.5182 Section 615.5182 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS, LOAN POLICIES AND...

  19. Political corruption: An example of the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Dimovski, Darko; Stanojević, Jelena

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, the authors explore the notion of political corruption, starting from political parties and politicians as holders of this form of corruption. The causes of corruption are generally similar in all political systems and largely depend on the structure of incentives, the scope of opportunities, risks and consequences underlying its detection. The consequences of political corruption are numerous and far-reaching; they hinder the country's social progress and undermine citizens' c...

  20. Gaps in Political Interest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Robison, Joshua

    2015-01-01

    Political interest fundamentally influences political behavior, knowledge, and persuasion (Brady, Verba, & Schlozman, 1995; Delli Carpini & Keeter, 1996; Luskin, 1990; Zukin, Andolina, Keeter, Jenkins, & Delli Carpini, 2006). Since the early 1960s, the American National Election Studies (ANES) ha...

  1. Sustainability : Politics and governance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heinrichs, Harald; Biermann, Frank

    2016-01-01

    he article gives an overview of global sustainability policy and politics. It is shown how international policy making on sustainable development has progressed from environmental policy toward recent approaches of Earth system governance. Key challenges of international sustainability politics are

  2. A Political, Economic, Social, Technology, Legal and Environmental (PESTLE) Approach for Risk Identification of the Tidal Industry in the United Kingdom

    OpenAIRE

    Kolios, Athanasios J.; Read, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of renewable and especially tidal energy through a political, economic, social, technology, legal and environmental (PESTLE) analysis approach and by reviewing the most up to date relevant literature. The study focuses on the United Kingdom given the favourable environmental resources for such technologies; the number of different design concepts that are currently under development as well as the research funding that has been invested over the la...

  3. Cardiovascular risk factors among the inhabitants of an urban Congolese community: results of the VITARAA Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pascal M. Bayauli

    2014-09-01

    Conclusion: Our findings highlight the staggering rates of cardiovascular risk factors in sub-Saharan Africa and underscore the pressing need to move their prevention and control higher on the political agenda.

  4. ARIES Oxide Production Program Assessment of Risk to Long-term Sustainable Production Rate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whitworth, Julia [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Lloyd, Jane Alexandria [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Majors, Harry W. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-05-04

    This report describes an assessment of risks and the development of a risk watch list for the ARIES Oxide Production Program conducted in the Plutonium Facility at LANL. The watch list is an active list of potential risks and opportunities that the management team periodically considers to maximize the likelihood of program success. The initial assessments were made in FY 16. The initial watch list was reviewed in September 2016. The initial report was not issued. Revision 1 has been developed based on management review of the original watch list and includes changes that occurred during FY-16.

  5. Risk-based approach in valuation of workplace injury rate for transportation and construction industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pykhtin, Kirill; Simankina, Tatiana; Sharmanov, Vladimir; Kopytova, Anna

    2017-10-01

    The danger of injuries and accidents in various industries such as transportation and construction urges the government to control the occupational health and safety more strictly. However, in order to do so with the minimal costs modern risk management tools, have to be implemented. Risk-based approach is an essential tool for competent risk- assessment and used in a great variety of other countries, demonstrating great results in providing of safe working environment. The article describes the problems that the implementation of the method faces in Russia and suggests certain ways to resolve them.

  6. Fear, Risk, and the Responsible Choice: Risk Narratives and Lowering the Rate of Caesarean Sections in High-income Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helga Hallgrimsdottir

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In Canada, as elsewhere in the world, caesarean sections are the most common surgical procedure performed in hospitals annually. Recent national statistics indicate 28% of infants in Canada are born by c-section while in the United States that number rises to 33%. This is despite World Health Organization recommendations that at a population level only 10–15% of births warrant this form of medical intervention. This trend has become cause for concern in recent decades due to the short and long-term health risks to pregnant women and infants, as well as the financial burden it places on public health care systems. Others warn this trend may result in a collective loss of cultural knowledge of a normal physiological process and, in the process, establish a new “normal” childbirth. Despite a range of interventions to curb c-section rates—enhanced prenatal care and innovation in pregnancy monitoring, change in hospital level policies, procedures and protocols, as well as public education campaigns—they remain stubbornly resistant to stabilization, let alone, reduction in high-income countries. We explore—through a review of the academic and grey literature—the role of cultural and social narratives around risk, and the responsibilization of the pregnant woman and the medical practitioner in creating this kind of resistance to intervention today.

  7. Comparing Political Communication

    OpenAIRE

    Pfetsch, Barbara; Esser, Frank

    2012-01-01

    This chapter describes the maturation of comparative political communications as a sub-discipline and defines its conceptual core. It then lays out the concept of “political communication system”. At the macro-level, this model captures the patterns of interaction between media and politics as social systems; at the micro-level it captures the interactions between media and political actors as individuals or organizations. Comparative research in this tradition focuses on the structure of pol...

  8. Mortality and recurrence rates among systemically untreated high risk breast cancer patients included in the DBCG 77 trials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Maj Britt; Nielsen, Torsten O.; Knoop, Ann S.

    2018-01-01

    Background: Following loco-regional treatment for early breast cancer accurate prognostication is essential for communicating benefits of systemic treatment. The aim of this study was to determine time to recurrence and long-term mortality rates in high risk patients according to patient characte......Background: Following loco-regional treatment for early breast cancer accurate prognostication is essential for communicating benefits of systemic treatment. The aim of this study was to determine time to recurrence and long-term mortality rates in high risk patients according to patient...... and EGFR positive. Multivariate categorical and fractional polynomials (MFP) models were used to construct prognostic subsets by clinicopathologic characteristics. Results: In a multivariate model, mortality rate was significantly associated with age, tumor size, nodal status, invasion, histological type...

  9. Ratings of Sovereign Risk and the Macroeconomics Fundamentals of the countries: a Study Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osvaldo Cândido da Silva Filho

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available To minimize the consequences of asymmetric information, the sovereign risk ratings are instruments that constitute a key piece in the determination of credit market conditions, essential to the growth of developing countries like Brazil. In the present work we studied based on macroeconomics foundations, a classification to sovereign risk ratings realized by the ratings agencies finding the classification using Artificial Neural Networks. We observed homogeneity degree between the attributions of agencies and macroeconomics foundations in the countries of sample which four of foundations seem to be more directly connected with these attributions. After, in a comparative static exercise, we use the model to make simulations of scenarios of the credit external conditions for the Brazilian economy, changing the macroeconomics foundations which we noted that agencies expected for more per capita income increasing and decrease of public debt. (Full article in Portuguese only

  10. Western Political Consulting Techniques and Post-Soviet Political Technology in Political Campaigns in Latvia

    OpenAIRE

    Bērziņa, Ieva

    2012-01-01

    Western Political Consulting Techniques and Post-Soviet Political Technology in Political Campaigns in Latvia Ieva Dmitričenko Keywords: political campaignsm political consulting, political technology, parties, marketing, media Political campaigning is an international phenomenon, because there is a free flow of information, knowledge and human resource among practitioners of political campaigning in various countries. As a result political campaigning techniques that have proven to ...

  11. Individual and Population Level Impact of Key HIV Risk Factors on HIV Incidence Rates in Durban, South Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gita Ramjee

    Full Text Available We aimed to estimate the individual and joint impact of age, marital status and diagnosis with sexually transmitted infections (STIs on HIV acquisition among young women at a population level in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. A total of 3,978 HIV seronegative women were recruited for four biomedical intervention trials from 2002-2009. Point and interval estimates of partial population attributable risk (PAR were used to quantify the proportion of HIV seroconversions which can be prevented if a combination of risk factors is eliminated from a target population. More than 70% of the observed HIV acquisitions were collectively attributed to the three risk factors: younger age (<25 years old, unmarried and not cohabiting with a stable/regular partner and diagnosis with STIs. Addressing these risks requires targeted structural, behavioural, biomedical and cultural interventions in order to impact on unacceptably high HIV incidence rates among young women and the population as a whole.

  12. Cardiovascular metabolic risk factors and glomerular filtration rate: a rural Chinese population study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Wei; Qian, Geng; Hao, Wenjun; Geng, Xiaodong; Hong, Quan; Cai, Guangyan; Chen, Xiangmei; Wu, Di

    2016-10-12

    A total of 2426 study subjects from rural China aged 35 years and above (934 men and 1492 women) were enrolled in a cross-sectional survey. The eGFR calculation was based on the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation. The strength of the association between cardiovascular metabolic risk factors and eGFR was analyzed using a linear regression model. Cardiovascular metabolic risk factors, including age, body weight, waist circumference, fasting plasma glucose (FPG), creatinine (Cr), high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), systolic pressure, and diastolic pressure, were associated with eGFR. Additionally, the eGFR level gradually decreased and showed a linear trend with the increase in metabolic syndrome risk factors. Metabolic risk factors are correlated with a reduction in renal function and CKD.

  13. Verbal Behavior and Politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graber, Doris A.

    This book illustrates how and why knowledge of verbal behavior is important to an understanding of politics by analyzing and describing verbal behavior studies pertaining to politics. Chapters in the first part of the book discuss the various characteristics of verbal behavior: the importance of verbal behavior in politics, construction of…

  14. Policy Research and Politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaskell, Jane

    1988-01-01

    Explores what it means to do research intended to be relevant for public policy. Argues against perception of policy research as politically neutral technical exercise. Discusses political implications of methodology. Discusses research examples to illustrate point. Discusses implications for how research might be used in political process.…

  15. Teaching Politically Correct Language

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsehelska, Maryna

    2006-01-01

    This article argues that teaching politically correct language to English learners provides them with important information and opportunities to be exposed to cultural issues. The author offers a brief review of how political correctness became an issue and how being politically correct influences the use of language. The article then presents…

  16. Tracking Politics with POWER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, Silvio; Batista, David S.; Carvalho, Paula; Couto, Francisco M.; Silva, Mario J.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: POWER is an ontology of political processes and entities. It is designed for tracking politicians, political organizations and elections, both in mainstream and social media. The aim of this paper is to propose a data model to describe political agents and their relations over time. Design/methodology/approach: The authors propose a data…

  17. Political Education in School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dag, Nilgun; Sozer, Mehmet Akif; Sel, Burcu

    2015-01-01

    Political education is a term with negative associations and triggering prejudiced approaches and discourses--maybe some paranoid thoughts--like "keep politics away from education!" in the minds of several people. This article deals with "political education" phenomenon almost never discussed and made subject to scientific…

  18. Lobbying and political polarization

    OpenAIRE

    Ursprung, Heinrich W.

    2002-01-01

    Standard spatial models of political competition give rise to equilibria in which the competing political parties or candidates converge to a common position. In this paper I show how political polarization can be generated in models that focus on the nexus between pre-election interest group lobbying and electoral competition.

  19. Rates and risk factors of injury in CrossFit:A prospective cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Moran, Sebastian; Booker, Harry; Staines, Jacob; Williams, Sean

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUNDː CrossFit is a strength and conditioning programme that has gained widespread popularity since its inception approximately 15 years ago. However, at present little is known about the level of injury risk associated with this form of training. Movement competency, assessed using the Functional Movement Screen (FMS), has been identified as a risk factor for injury in numerous athletic populations, but its role in CrossFit participants is currently unclear. The aim of this study was t...

  20. Modeling and estimating the jump risk of exchange rates: Applications to RMB

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yiming; Tong, Hanfei

    2008-11-01

    In this paper we propose a new type of continuous-time stochastic volatility model, SVDJ, for the spot exchange rate of RMB, and other foreign currencies. In the model, we assume that the change of exchange rate can be decomposed into two components. One is the normally small-cope innovation driven by the diffusion motion; the other is a large drop or rise engendered by the Poisson counting process. Furthermore, we develop a MCMC method to estimate our model. Empirical results indicate the significant existence of jumps in the exchange rate. Jump components explain a large proportion of the exchange rate change.

  1. Risk factors and their combined effects on the incidence rate of subarachnoid hemorrhage--a population-based cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miikka Korja

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Prospective studies on the risk factors for subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH are limited. Moreover, the effect of risk factors on the incidence rates of SAH is not well known about. AIMS: In this study, we aimed to identify risk factors for SAH and characterize subgroups in a population with a high incidence of SAH. METHODS: After recording multiple potential risk factors for SAH at the time of enrollment, first ever SAH events between 1972 and 2009 were recorded through the nationwide Causes of Death Register and Hospital Discharge Register for the population-based cohort of 64 349 participants, who participated in the National FINRISK Study between 1972 and 2007 in Finland. RESULTS: During the follow-up time of 1.26 million person-years (median 17.9 years, range 0 to 37.9 years, 437 persons experienced fatal or non-fatal SAH. Crude SAH incidence was 34.8 (95% confidence interval: 31.7-38.2 per 100 000 person-years among ≥ 25-year-old persons. Female sex, high blood pressure values and current smoking were confirmed as risk factors for SAH. Previous myocardial infarction, history of premature stroke (any kind in mother and elevated cholesterol levels in men were identified as new risk factors for SAH. Depending on the combination of risk factors, SAH incidence varied between 8 and 171 per 100 000 person-years. CONCLUSIONS: New and previously reported risk factors appear to have a much stronger association with the incidence of SAH than is ordinarily seen in cardiovascular diseases. Risk factor assessments may facilitate the identification of high-risk persons who should be the focus of preventive interventions.

  2. Risk Factors and Their Combined Effects on the Incidence Rate of Subarachnoid Hemorrhage – A Population-Based Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korja, Miikka; Silventoinen, Karri; Laatikainen, Tiina; Jousilahti, Pekka; Salomaa, Veikko; Hernesniemi, Juha; Kaprio, Jaakko

    2013-01-01

    Background Prospective studies on the risk factors for subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) are limited. Moreover, the effect of risk factors on the incidence rates of SAH is not well known about. Aims In this study, we aimed to identify risk factors for SAH and characterize subgroups in a population with a high incidence of SAH. Methods After recording multiple potential risk factors for SAH at the time of enrolment, first ever SAH events between 1972 and 2009 were recorded through the nationwide Causes of Death Register and Hospital Discharge Register for the population-based cohort of 64 349 participants, who participated in the National FINRISK Study between 1972 and 2007 in Finland. Results During the follow-up time of 1.26 million person-years (median 17.9 years, range 0 to 37.9 years), 437 persons experienced fatal or non-fatal SAH. Crude SAH incidence was 34.8 (95% confidence interval: 31.7–38.2) per 100 000 person-years among ≥25-year-old persons. Female sex, high blood pressure values and current smoking were confirmed as risk factors for SAH. Previous myocardial infarction, history of premature stroke (any kind) in mother and elevated cholesterol levels in men were identified as new risk factors for SAH. Depending on the combination of risk factors, SAH incidence varied between 8 and 171 per 100 000 person-years. Conclusions New and previously reported risk factors appear to have a much stronger association with the incidence of SAH than is ordinarily seen in cardiovascular diseases. Risk factor assessments may facilitate the identification of high-risk persons who should be the focus of preventive interventions. PMID:24040058

  3. The international politics of geoengineering:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corry, Olaf

    2017-01-01

    the politics of climate change dramatically, yet in evaluating whether they might ultimately reduce climate risks, their political and security implications have so far not been given adequate prominence. This article puts forward what it calls the ‘security hazard’ and argues that this could be a crucial......Geoengineering technologies aim to make large-scale and deliberate interventions in the climate system possible. A typical framing is that researchers are exploring a ‘Plan B’ in case mitigation fails to avert dangerous climate change. Some options are thought to have the potential to alter...... factor in determining whether a technology is able, ultimately, to reduce climate risks. Ideas about global governance of geoengineering rely on heroic assumptions about state rationality and a generally pacific international system. Moreover, if in a climate engineered world weather events become...

  4. State disparities in colorectal cancer rates: Contributions of risk factors, screening, and survival differences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I. Lansdorp-Vogelaar (Iris); S.L. Goede (S. Lucas); J. Ma (Jiemin); W. Xiau-Cheng (Wu); K. Pawlish (Karen); M. van Ballegooijen (Marjolein); A. Jemal (Ahmedin)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractBACKGROUND Northeastern states of the United States have shown more progress in reducing colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality rates than Southern states, and this has resulted in considerable disparities. This study quantified how the disparities in CRC rates between Louisiana

  5. Rating agencies : Role and influence of their sovereign credit risk assessment in the Eurozone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eijffinger, S.C.W.

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the role of credit rating agencies (CRAs) during the 2010–11 EU sovereign debt crisis is assessed. It is concluded that rating agencies lag behind markets, that their business model is flawed, and that the lack of competition renders the big three CRAs with too strong a market

  6. Risk of inflammatory bowel disease according to self-rated health, pregnancy course, and pregnancy complications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harpsøe, Maria C; Jørgensen, Kristian Tore; Frisch, Morten

    2013-01-01

    Poor self-rated health (SRH) has been connected to immunological changes, and pregnancy complications have been suggested in the etiology of autoimmune diseases including inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We evaluated the impact of self-rated pre-pregnancy health and pregnancy course, hyperemesis...

  7. European welfare regimes: Political orientations versus poverty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josifidis Kosta

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This inquiry analyzes how political orientations shape welfare states and labour market institutions when seeking to reduce poverty. In order to identify effects of these two key variables, we conduct a panel regression analysis that includes two poverty measures: poverty rates before and after social spending. This inquiry considers 14 EU countries, and in the period from 1995 to 2008, which are grouped according to welfare state regimes. We consider Social Democratic, Corporatist, Mediterranean and Liberal welfare state regimes. Panel regression results indicate that political orientation engenders no significant statistically measurable effects on poverty rates before social spending. Effects register, however, as significant when considering poverty rates after social spending. With respect to the first set of results, we advance two key explanations. First, we note a longer period of time is necessary in order to observe actual effects of political orientation on market generated poverty. Second, political parties with their respective programs do not register as influential enough to solve social problems related to income distribution when taken alone. Influences register as indirect and are expressed through changes in employment rates and social spending. The second set of results support the hypothesis that a selected political regime does indeed contribute to poverty reduction. In sum, political orientation and political regime does indeed affect poverty through welfare state institutions, as well as through labour market institutions.

  8. Problems of political corruption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ćirić Jovan

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The author in this work speaks about general problems of political corruption in the world and in Serbia. The author tries to define the phenomenon of political corruption and pays special attention to financing political parties. Ćirić gives the overview of international documents about financing political parties and gives us the overview of MP's salaries in some western countries. At the end it is analyzed the question of trading MP's mandate, as a matter of fact who is the owner of the mandate of one representative - that representative, or his/her political party. That also could be the origin of different manipulations and corruption.

  9. Heart rate as a predictor of stroke in high-risk, hypertensive patients with previous stroke or transient ischemic attack.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandset, Else Charlotte; Berge, Eivind; Kjeldsen, Sverre E; Julius, Stevo; Holzhauer, Björn; Krarup, Lars-Henrik; Hua, Tsushung A

    2014-01-01

    Risk factors for first stroke are well established, but less is known about risk factors for recurrent stroke. In the present analysis, we aimed to assess the effect of heart rate and other possible predictors of stroke in a hypertensive population with previous stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). The Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-Term Use Evaluation trial was a multicentre, double-masked, randomized controlled, parallel group trial comparing the effects of an angiotensin receptor blocker (valsartan) and a calcium channel blocker (amlodipine) in patients with hypertension and high cardiovascular risk. We used Cox proportional hazard models to investigate the effect of baseline variables on the risk of stroke. Quadratic terms of the continuous variables were entered in the models to test for linearity. Of 15,245 patients included in the trial, 3014 had a previous stroke or TIA at baseline and were included in the present analysis. Stroke recurrence occurred in 239 patients (7.9%) during a median of 4.5 years of follow-up. Resting heart rate (per 10 beats per minute; hazard ratio [HR], 2.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-6.58) and diabetes mellitus at baseline (HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.03-2.10) were significantly associated with an increased risk of stroke recurrence in the multivariable analysis. In high-risk, hypertensive patients with previous stroke or TIA, resting heart rate was the strongest predictor of recurrent stroke. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Child and adolescent mental health problems in Tyva Republic, Russia, as possible risk factors for a high suicide rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slobodskaya, Helena R; Semenova, Nadezhda B

    2016-04-01

    High rates of child mental health problems in the Russian Federation have recently been documented; the rates of youth suicide are among the highest in the world. Across the Russian regions, Republic of Tyva has one of the highest rates of child and adolescent suicide and the lowest life expectancy at birth. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence and associations of mental health problems in Native Tyvinian children and adolescents using internationally recognised measures and diagnoses. A two-stage, two-phase design involved selection of schools in five rural settlements in Western Tyva and two schools in the capital city followed by selection of Native Tyvinian children in grades 3-4 (ages 9-10) and 6-7 (ages 14-15). In the first phase, a screening measure of psychopathology, the Rutter Teacher Questionnaire, was obtained on 1048 children with a 97% participation rate. In the second phase, more detailed psychiatric assessments were carried out for subgroups of screen-positive and screen-negative children. The prevalence of mental health problems was about 25%, ranging from 40% in adolescent boys from rural areas to 9% in adolescent girls from the city. The patterning of disorders and risk factors were similar to those in other countries, rural areas were associated with an increased risk of psychopathology. The findings indicate that there is an urgent need for interventions to reduce risk in this population and provide effective help for Tyvinian children and adolescents with mental health problems.

  11. Religion and Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bandak, Andreas

    2018-01-01

    Religion and politics provide an interesting juxtaposition. On the one hand, both may initially come across as rather self-evident categories, with religion dealing with human perceptions and what people hold as sacred, and politics addressing the control and governance of fellow human beings....... Nonetheless, such a simple opposition should only work as a starting point for an interrogation of both terms and how they have come to look and function as empirical and analytical categories. Focusing on the ways that religion is played out in relation to politics reveals different historical and cultural...... constellations and positions, which can be highlighted as variations of religion as politics, religion in politics, religion out of politics, and religion not politics....

  12. Political Budget Cycles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aaskoven, Lasse; Lassen, David Dreyer

    2017-01-01

    The political budget cycle—how elections affect government fiscal policy—is one of the most studied subjects in political economy and political science. The key theoretical question is whether incumbent governments can time or structure public finances in ways that improve their chances of reelec......The political budget cycle—how elections affect government fiscal policy—is one of the most studied subjects in political economy and political science. The key theoretical question is whether incumbent governments can time or structure public finances in ways that improve their chances...... on political budget cycles have recently focused on conditions under which such cycles are likely to obtain. Much recent research focuses on subnational settings, allowing comparisons of governments in similar institutional environments, and a consensus on the presences of cycles in public finances...

  13. Putting politics first.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, Jacob S

    2008-01-01

    The greatest lesson of the failure of comprehensive health reform in the early 1990s is that politics comes first. Even the best-laid policy plans are worthless if they lack the political support to pass. Putting politics first means avoiding the overarching mistake of the Clinton reformers: envisioning a grand policy compromise rather than hammering out a real political compromise. It also means addressing the inevitable fears of those who believe that they are well protected by our eroding employment-based system. And it means formulating political strategies that are premised on the contemporary realities of the hyperpolarized U.S. political environment, rather than wistfully recalled images of the bipartisan politics of old.

  14. The politics of researching global health politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rushton, Simon

    2015-01-01

    In this comment, I build on Shiffman’s call for the global health community to more deeply investigate structural and productive power. I highlight two challenges we must grapple with as social scientists carrying out the types of investigation that Shiffman proposes: the politics of challenging the powerful; and the need to investigate types of expertise that have traditionally been thought of as ‘outside’ global health. In doing so, I argue that moving forward with the agenda Shiffman sets out requires social scientists interested in the global politics of health to be reflexive about our own exercise of structural and productive power and the fact that researching global health politics is itself a political undertaking. PMID:25905482

  15. A novel cardiovascular risk stratification model incorporating ECG and heart rate variability for patients presenting to the emergency department with chest pain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heldeweg, Micah Liam Arthur; Liu, Nan; Koh, Zhi Xiong; Fook-Chong, Stephanie; Lye, Weng Kit; Harms, Mark; Ong, Marcus Eng Hock

    2016-01-01

    Background: Risk stratification models can be employed at the emergency department (ED) to evaluate patient prognosis and guide choice of treatment. We derived and validated a new cardiovascular risk stratification model comprising vital signs, heart rate variability (HRV) parameters, and

  16. Risk Assessment of Diabetes Mellitus by Chaotic Globals to Heart Rate Variability via Six Power Spectra

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garner David M.

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: The priniciple objective here is to analyze cardiovascular dynamics in diabetic subjects by actions related to heart rate variability (HRV. The correlation of chaotic globals is vital to evaluate the probability of dynamical diseases.

  17. American Indians, hunting and fishing rates, risk, and the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burger, J.

    1999-01-01

    Hunting, fishing, and recreational rates of 276 American Indians attending a festival at Fort Hall, near the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), were examined. Nearly half of the sample lived on the Fort Hall Reservation, and half were American Indians from elsewhere in the western United States. An additional 44 White people attending the festival were also interviewed. The hypothesis that there are differences in hunting, fishing, and recreational rates as a function of tribal affiliation, educational level, gender, and age was examined. Information on hunting and fishing rates are central for understanding potential exposure scenarios for American Indians if the Department of Energy's INEEL lands are ever opened to public access, and the data are important because of the existence of tribal treaties that govern the legal and cultural rights of the Shoshone-Bannock regarding INEEL lands. Variations in hunting, fishing, and photography rates were explained by tribal affiliation (except fishing), gender, age, and schooling. Hunting rates were significantly higher for Indians (both those living on Fort Hall and others) than Whites. Men engaged in significantly higher rates of outdoor activities than women (except for photography). Potential and current hunting and fishing on and adjacent to INEEL was more similar among the local Whites and Fort Hall Indians than between these two groups and other American Indians

  18. SSD-based rating system for the classification of pesticide risk on biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sala, Serenella; Migliorati, Sonia; Monti, Gianna S; Vighi, Marco

    2012-05-01

    A novel approach, based on Species sensitivity distribution (SSD), is proposed for the development of an index for classifying ecotoxicological pesticide risk in surface waters. In this approach, the concept of TER (Toxicity Exposure Ratio), commonly used in traditional risk indices, is substituted by the concept of PAF (Potentially Affected Fraction), which takes into account several species within the biological community of interest, rather than just a small number of indicator species assumed as being representative of the ecosystem. The procedure represents a probabilistic tool to quantitatively assess the ecotoxicological risk on biodiversity considering the distribution of toxicological sensitivity. It can be applied to assess chemical risk on generic aquatic and terrestrial communities as well as on site-specific natural communities. Examples of its application are shown for some pesticides in freshwater ecosystems. In order to overcome the problem of insufficient reliable ecotoxicological data, a methodology and related algorithms are proposed for predicting SSD curves for chemicals that do not have sufficient available data. The methodology is applicable within congeneric classes of chemicals and has been tested and statistically validated on a group of organophosphorus insecticides. Values and limitations of the approach are discussed.

  19. Validating an evidence-based, self-rated fall risk questionnaire (FRQ) for older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubenstein, Laurence Z; Vivrette, Rebecca; Harker, Judith O; Stevens, Judy A; Kramer, B Josea

    2011-12-01

    Falls are a common, serious, and often unrecognized problem facing older adults. The objective of this study was to provide an initial clinical and statistical validation for a public health strategy of fall risk self-assessment by older adults using a Fall Risk Questionnaire (FRQ). Adults age 65+ (n=40) were recruited at a Los Angeles Veterans Affairs (VA) medical facility and at a local assisted living facility. Participants completed the FRQ self-assessment and results were compared to a "gold standard" of a clinical evaluation of risks using the American/British Geriatrics Society guidelines to assess independent predictors of falls: history of previous falls, fear of falling, gait/balance, muscle weakness, incontinence, sensation and proprioception, depression, vision, and medications. For the comparison, we used an iterative statistical approach, weighing items based on relative risk. There was strong agreement between the FRQ and clinical evaluation (kappa=.875, prisk) because of inadequate agreement with the clinical evaluation (kappa=.139, p=.321), the final FRQ had good concurrent validity. The FRQ goes beyond existing screening tools in that it is based on both evidence and clinical acceptability and has been initially validated with clinical examination data. A larger validation with longitudinal follow-up should determine the actual strength of the FRQ in predicting future falls. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  20. Suicidal behavior and ethnicity of young females in Rotterdam, the Netherlands: rates and risk factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Bergen, D.D.; Eikelenboom, M.; Smit, J.H.; van de Looij-Jansen, P.; Saharso, S.

    2010-01-01

    Objective. Although Western Europe is becoming increasingly multicultural, ethnic minorities are scarcely included in studies of suicidology. We investigated the prevalence of non-fatal suicidal behavior and examined risk factors in non-western female immigrant adolescents compared to majority

  1. estimated glomerular filtration rate and risk of survival in acute stroke

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-03-03

    Mar 3, 2014 ... independence and the common odds ratio with stroke severity as a layering variable. Results: No significant ... Conclusion: Independent of stroke severity, GFR is a surrogate in the assessment of the risk of survival in acute ..... outcome of acute stroke in the University College. Hospital Ibadan, Nigeria.

  2. Risk factors and mortality rate of severely asphyxiated neonates in a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Asphyxia is a serious clinical condition in which placental or pulmonary gas exchange is impaired or ceases altogether. Reports from Nigeria have shown that a large proportion of neonates are still being diagnosed with and managed for severe birth asphyxia. A large proportion of the risk factors are actually ...

  3. Tax Rates Effects on the Risk Level of Listed Viet Nam Wholesale ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The emerging stock market in Viet Nam has been developed since 2006 and was affected by the financial crisis 2007-2009. This study analyzes the impacts of tax policy on market risk for the listed firms in the wholesale and retail industry as it becomes necessary. First, by using quantitative and analytical methods to ...

  4. Resting Heart Rate Is Not a Good Predictor of a Clustered Cardiovascular Risk Score in Adolescents: The HELENA Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Augusto César Ferreira de Moraes

    Full Text Available Resting heart rate (RHR reflects sympathetic nerve activity a significant association between RHR and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality has been reported in some epidemiologic studies.To analyze the predictive power and accuracy of RHR as a screening measure for individual and clustered cardiovascular risk in adolescents. The study comprised 769 European adolescents (376 boys participating in the HELENA cross-sectional study (2006-2008 were included in this study. Measurements on systolic blood pressure, HOMA index, triglycerides, TC/HDL-c, VO2máx and the sum of four skinfolds were obtained, and a clustered cardiovascular disease (CVD risk index was computed. The receiver operating characteristics curve was applied to calculate the power and accuracy of RHR to predict individual and clustered CVD risk factors.RHR showed low accuracy for screening CVD risk factors in both sexes (range 38.5%-54.4% in boys and 45.5%-54.3% in girls. Low specificity's (15.6%-19.7% in boys; 18.1%-20.0% in girls were also found. Nevertheless, the sensitivities were moderate-to-high (61.4%-89.1% in boys; 72.9%-90.3% in girls.RHR is a poor predictor of individual CVD risk factors and of clustered CVD and the estimates based on RHR are not accurate. The use of RHR as an indicator of CVD risk in adolescents may produce a biased screening of cardiovascular health in both sexes.

  5. Political Corruption: An Institutional Aspect

    OpenAIRE

    Наронская, Анна Гегамовна

    2017-01-01

    This article is devoted to corruption’s impact on the functioning of political institutions. In the author’s opinion, political corruption leads to informal institutionalization and degradation of political institutions. The author concludes that public control can prevent political corruption.Key words: the political corruption, conflict of interests, formal and informal institutions, political process.

  6. Comparative determinants of 4-year cardiovascular event rates in stable outpatients at risk of or with atherothrombosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatt, Deepak L; Eagle, Kim A; Ohman, E Magnus; Hirsch, Alan T; Goto, Shinya; Mahoney, Elizabeth M; Wilson, Peter W F; Alberts, Mark J; D'Agostino, Ralph; Liau, Chiau-Suong; Mas, Jean-Louis; Röther, Joachim; Smith, Sidney C; Salette, Geneviève; Contant, Charles F; Massaro, Joseph M; Steg, Ph Gabriel

    2010-09-22

    Clinicians and trialists have difficulty with identifying which patients are highest risk for cardiovascular events. Prior ischemic events, polyvascular disease, and diabetes mellitus have all been identified as predictors of ischemic events, but their comparative contributions to future risk remain unclear. To categorize the risk of cardiovascular events in stable outpatients with various initial manifestations of atherothrombosis using simple clinical descriptors. Outpatients with coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, or peripheral arterial disease or with multiple risk factors for atherothrombosis were enrolled in the global Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) Registry and were followed up for as long as 4 years. Patients from 3647 centers in 29 countries were enrolled between 2003 and 2004 and followed up until 2008. Final database lock was in April 2009. Rates of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. A total of 45,227 patients with baseline data were included in this 4-year analysis. During the follow-up period, a total of 5481 patients experienced at least 1 event, including 2315 with cardiovascular death, 1228 with myocardial infarction, 1898 with stroke, and 40 with both a myocardial infarction and stroke on the same day. Among patients with atherothrombosis, those with a prior history of ischemic events at baseline (n = 21,890) had the highest rate of subsequent ischemic events (18.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 17.4%-19.1%); patients with stable coronary, cerebrovascular, or peripheral artery disease (n = 15,264) had a lower risk (12.2%; 95% CI, 11.4%-12.9%); and patients without established atherothrombosis but with risk factors only (n = 8073) had the lowest risk (9.1%; 95% CI, 8.3%-9.9%) (P < .001 for all comparisons). In addition, in multivariable modeling, the presence of diabetes (hazard ratio [HR], 1.44; 95% CI, 1.36-1.53; P < .001), an ischemic event in the previous year (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1

  7. Premorbid teacher-rated social functioning predicts adult schizophrenia-spectrum disorder: A high-risk prospective investigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tsuji, Thomas; Kline, Emily; Sorensen, Holger J.

    2013-01-01

    Social functioning deficits are a core component of schizophrenia spectrum disorders, and may emerge years prior to the onset of diagnosable illness. The current study prospectively examines the relation between teacher-rated childhood social dysfunction and later mental illness among participants...... who were at genetic high-risk for schizophrenia and controls (n=244). The teacher-rated social functioning scale significantly predicted psychiatric outcomes (schizophrenia-spectrum vs. other psychiatric disorder vs. no mental illness). Poor premorbid social functioning appears to constitute a marker...

  8. Rethinking political correctness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ely, Robin J; Meyerson, Debra E; Davidson, Martin N

    2006-09-01

    Legal and cultural changes over the past 40 years ushered unprecedented numbers of women and people of color into companies' professional ranks. Laws now protect these traditionally underrepresented groups from blatant forms of discrimination in hiring and promotion. Meanwhile, political correctness has reset the standards for civility and respect in people's day-to-day interactions. Despite this obvious progress, the authors' research has shown that political correctness is a double-edged sword. While it has helped many employees feel unlimited by their race, gender, or religion,the PC rule book can hinder people's ability to develop effective relationships across race, gender, and religious lines. Companies need to equip workers with skills--not rules--for building these relationships. The authors offer the following five principles for healthy resolution of the tensions that commonly arise over difference: Pause to short-circuit the emotion and reflect; connect with others, affirming the importance of relationships; question yourself to identify blind spots and discover what makes you defensive; get genuine support that helps you gain a broader perspective; and shift your mind-set from one that says, "You need to change," to one that asks, "What can I change?" When people treat their cultural differences--and related conflicts and tensions--as opportunities to gain a more accurate view of themselves, one another, and the situation, trust builds and relationships become stronger. Leaders should put aside the PC rule book and instead model and encourage risk taking in the service of building the organization's relational capacity. The benefits will reverberate through every dimension of the company's work.

  9. The politics of reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsburg, F; Rapp, R

    1991-01-01

    The topic of human reproduction encompasses events throughout the human and especially female life-cycle as well as ideas and practices surrounding fertility, birth, and child care. Most of the scholarship on the subject, up through the 1960s, was based on cross-cultural surveys focused on the beliefs, norms, and values surrounding reproductive behaviors. Multiple methodologies and subspecialties, and fields like social history, human biology, and demography were utilized for the analysis. The concept of the politics of reproduction synthesizes local and global perspectives. The themes investigated include: the concept of reproduction, population control, and the internationalization of state and market interests (new reproductive technologies); social movements and contested domains; medicalization and its discontents; fertility and its control; adolescence and teen pregnancy; birth; birth attendants; the construction of infancy and the politics of child survival; rethinking the demographic transition; networks of nurturance; and meanings of menopause. The medicalization of reproduction is a central issue of studies of birth, midwifery, infertility, and reproductive technologies. Scholars have also analyzed different parts of the female life-cycle as medical problems. Other issues worth analysis include the internationalization of adoption and child care workers; the crisis of infertility of low-income and minority women who are not candidates for expensive reproductive technologies; the concerns of women at high risk for HIV whose cultural status depends on their fertility; questions of reproduction concerning, lesbians and gay men (artificial insemination and discrimination in child rearing); the study of menopause; and fatherhood. New discourse analysis is used to analyze state eugenic policies; conflicts over Western neocolonial influences in which women's status as childbearers represent nationalist interests; fundamentalist attacks on abortion rights; and

  10. Incidence rate and prevalence of major risk factors for ectopic pregnancy in the Pakistani population: mini-review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabira Sultana

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Ectopic pregnancy is the complication of pregnancy in which the product of conception implants outside the uterine cavity i.e. in the uterine tubes, cervix, ovaries and abdomen. It is lifethreatening emergency and a major cause of maternal morbidity and mortality. The incidence rate is 0.5%-1.5% of all pregnancies. Even though its incidence rate is drop off when compared with earlier decades, it is still the foremost causes of maternal morbidity and mortality in the first trimester of pregnancy, especially in developing countries. In Pakistan, it varies from 1:1 124 to 1:130 pregnancies. Risk factors associated to ectopic pregnancy are pelvic inflammatory disease, past history of miscarriages, age, parity, infertility, previous ectopic pregnancy, induction of ovulation and intrauterine device usage. The aim of this study is to review the published literature concerning the disease knowledge and major risk factors associated to ectopic pregnancy in Pakistan.

  11. Incident rate and risk factors for tuberculosis among patients with type 2 diabetes: retrospective cohort study in Shanghai, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Hanbo; Shi, Yan; Li, Yanyun; Shen, Xin; Li, Rui; Yang, Qundi; Pan, Qichao; Yan, Fei

    2017-07-01

    To examine the incident rate of tuberculosis (TB) and its associates among adults with type 2 diabetes in Shanghai, China. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among 170 399 patients with type 2 diabetes aged ≥18 years who were registered in Shanghai community-based diabetes management system between 2004 and 2009. Their TB status was tracked until 31 December 2014. Cox regression was performed to identify the risk factors for TB. We documented 785 new TB cases during 654 977 person-years of follow-up. The incident rate of TB was 224.20 (206.69, 243.16) per 100 000 person-years among men and 51.34 (44.75, 58.92) per 100 000 person-years among women. A 1-unit increase of BMI was associated with a risk reduction in 16% (P < 0.01) for men and a 14% (P < 0.01) reduction for women. TB cases were more likely to be insulin-dependent [men: hazard ratio = 2.13 (1.29, 3.53); women: 3.28 (1.28, 8.39)] and had a poor glucose level initially [men: 1.21 (1.15, 1.27); women: 1.27 (1.18, 1.37)]. The risk factor for TB specific to men was a young age at diagnosis of diabetes, and the protective factor specific to women was actively engaging in physical activity. TB incident rate among patients with type 2 diabetes was substantially higher among men than among women. The risk of TB was reversely associated with initial BMI. The severity of poor glucose control among patients with diabetes was also linearly associated with the risk of TB. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Foreign exchange risk management : how are the largest non-financial companies in Norway managing their foreign exchange rate exposure?

    OpenAIRE

    Eriksen, Krister; Wedøe, Ola

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis is to investigate how the largest non-financial companies in Norway manage their foreign exchange rate exposure. This is investigated through the use of a survey distributed to a sample the largest non-financial firms in Norway. According to our results, the largest non-financial companies in Norway have a predefined strategy for managing foreign exchange risk, which is defined by the board of directors or by the management in the organisation. The companies’ mai...

  13. Effect of Birth Cohort on Risk of Hip Fracture: Age-Specific Incidence Rates in the Framingham Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samelson, Elizabeth J.; Zhang, Yuqing; Kiel, Douglas P.; Hannan, Marian T.; Felson, David T.

    2002-01-01

    Objectives. This study examined the effect of birth cohort on incidence rates of hip fracture among women and men in the Framingham Study. Methods. Age-specific incidence rates of first hip fracture were presented according to tertile of year of birth for 5209 participants of the Framingham Study, a population-based cohort followed since 1948. Sex-specific incidence rate ratios were calculated by Cox regression to assess the relation between birth cohort and hip fracture incidence. Results. An increasing trend in hip fracture incidence rates was observed with year of birth for women (trend, P = .05) and men (trend, P = .03). Relative to those born from 1887 to 1900 (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.0), age-specific incidence rates were greatest in the most recent birth cohort, born from 1911 to 1921 (IRR = 1.4 for women, IRR = 2.0 for men), and intermediate in those born from 1901 to 1910 (IRR = 1.2 for women, IRR = 1.5 for men). Conclusions. Results suggest risk of hip fracture is increasing for successive birth cohorts. Projections that fail to account for the increase in rates associated with birth cohort underestimate the future public health impact of hip fracture in the United States. PMID:11988460

  14. Comparing Political Journalism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Comparing Political Journalism is a systematic, in-depth study of the factors that shape and influence political news coverage today. Using techniques drawn from the growing field of comparative political communication, an international group of contributors analyse political news content drawn f...... Comparing Political Journalism offers an unparalleled scope in assessing the implications for the ongoing transformation of Western media systems, and addresses core concepts of central importance to students and scholars of political communication world-wide.......Comparing Political Journalism is a systematic, in-depth study of the factors that shape and influence political news coverage today. Using techniques drawn from the growing field of comparative political communication, an international group of contributors analyse political news content drawn...... from newspapers, television news, and news websites from 16 countries, to assess what kinds of media systems are most conducive to producing quality journalism. Underpinned by key conceptual themes, such as the role that the media are expected to play in democracies and quality of coverage...

  15. School of Political Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. D. Voskresensky

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Out of all the departments of political sciences in Russia - the Department at MGIMO-University is probably the oldest one. In fact it is very young. While MGIMO-University is celebrating its 70th anniversary the Department of Political Sciences turns 15. Despite the fact that political analyst is a relatively new profession in Russia, it acquired a legal standing only in the 1990s, the political science school at MGIMO-University is almost as old as the university itself. Unlike many other universities, focused on the training teachers of political science or campaign managers MGIMO-University has developed its own unique political science school of "full cycle", where students grow into political sciences from a zero level up to the highest qualifications as teachers and researchers, and campaign managers, consultants and practitioners. The uniqueness of the school of political science at MGIMO-University allows its institutional incarnation -the Department of Political Science - to offer prospective studentsa training in a wide range of popular specialties and specializations, while ensuring a deep theoretical and practical basis of the training. Studying at MGIMO-University traditionally includes enhanced linguistic component (at least two foreign languages. For students of international relations and political science learning foreign languages is particularly important.It allows not only to communicate, but also to produce expertise and knowledge in foreign languages.

  16. Cortisol, heart rate, and blood pressure as early markers of PTSD risk: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Matthew C; Hellman, Natalie; Abelson, James L; Rao, Uma

    2016-11-01

    Individuals with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) typically exhibit altered hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) function and sympathetic nervous system (SNS) activity. The goals of this study were to determine whether HPA and SNS alterations in the immediate aftermath of trauma predict subsequent PTSD symptom development and whether inconsistencies observed between studies can be explained by key demographic and methodological factors. This work informs secondary prevention of PTSD by identifying subgroups of trauma survivors at risk for PTSD. This meta-analysis (26 studies, N=5186 individuals) revealed that higher heart rate measured soon after trauma exposure was associated with higher PTSD symptoms subsequently (r=0.13). Neither cortisol (r=-0.07) nor blood pressure (diastolic: r=-0.01; systolic: r=0.02) were associated with PTSD symptoms which may be influenced by methodological limitations. Associations between risk markers (heart rate, cortisol, systolic blood pressure) and PTSD symptoms were in the positive direction for younger samples and negative direction for older samples. These findings extend developmental traumatology models of PTSD by revealing an age-related shift in the presentation of early risk markers. More work will be needed to identify risk markers and pathways to PTSD while addressing methodological limitations in order to shape and target preventive interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Combined-modality therapy for early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma: maintaining high cure rates while minimizing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelsey, Chris R; Beaven, Anne W; Diehl, Louis F; Prosnitz, Leonard R

    2012-12-01

    Multiple randomized studies have demonstrated that chemotherapy, most commonly ABVD (doxorubicin [Adriamycin], bleomycin, vinblastine, dacarbazine), followed by consolidation radiation therapy is the most effective treatment program for early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma. With a combined-modality approach, the great majority of patients are cured of their disease. It is also apparent that both chemotherapy and radiation therapy can increase the risk of complications in the decades following treatment, with second cancers and cardiac disease being the most common. Most studies,evaluating such risks primarily include patients treated in decades past with what are now considered outdated approaches, including high-dose, wide-field radiation therapy. The treatment of Hodgkin lymphoma has evolved significantly, particularly in regard to radiation therapy. In combination with chemotherapy, much lower doses and smaller fields are employed, with success equivalent to that achieved using older methods. Many studies have shown a significant decline in both the rates of second cancers and the risk of cardiac disease with low-dose radiation confined to the original extent of disease. In favorable patients, as few as 2 cycles of ABVD have been shown to be effective. The current combined-modality approach seeks to maintain high cure rates but minimize risks by optimizing both chemotherapy and radiation therapy

  18. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 26 Appendix Y - Historical Ridging Rate.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  19. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 27 Appendix Z - Forecast Ridging Rate.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  20. Rates and risks for co-morbid depression in patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pouwer, F; Beekman, Aartjan T F; Nijpels, G

    2003-01-01

    AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: There is accumulating evidence that depression is common in people with Type 2 diabetes. However, most prevalence-studies are uncontrolled and could also be inaccurate from selection-bias, as they are conducted in specialized treatment settings. We studied the prevalence and risk...... could play an essential role in the development of depression in Type 2 diabetes. These findings can enable clinicians and researchers to identify high-risk groups and set up prevention and treatment programs....... factors of co-morbid depression in a community-based sample of older adults, comparing Type 2 diabetic patients with healthy control subjects. METHODS: A large (n=3107) community-based study in Dutch adults (55-85 years of age) was conducted. Pervasive depression was defined as a CES-D score greater than...

  1. Do laboratory frontal crash test programs predict driver fatality risk? Evidence from within vehicle line variation in test ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harless, David W; Hoffer, George E

    2007-09-01

    A number of studies have examined whether the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA) frontal crash test results reliably indicate the risk of fatality or injury in serious crashes. The conclusions of these studies are mixed. Generally, studies that examine crashes in the circumstances as close as possible to those of the laboratory test find that crash test results do predict real-world risk, but studies of crashes outside those specific circumstances find either no support for the predictive validity of crash test results or limited support with important inconsistencies. We provide a new test of the predictive validity of the crash test results using information from multiple crash tests within vehicle lines, thus controlling for systematic differences in driver behavior across vehicle lines. Among drivers of passenger cars, we find large, statistically significant differences in fatality risk for vehicles with one- to four-star NHTSA ratings versus a five-star rating. We also examine the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety's frontal offset crash test, though our sample of vehicle lines tested twice or more is considerably smaller than for NHTSA ratings. Our results also support the predictive validity of the frontal offset crash test results for passenger cars, but not for trucks.

  2. High-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Alone for Localized Prostate Cancer in Patients at Moderate or High Risk of Biochemical Recurrence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoskin, Peter [Cancer Centre, Mount Vernon Hospital, Northwood, Middlesex (United Kingdom); Rojas, Ana, E-mail: arc03@btconnect.com [Cancer Centre, Mount Vernon Hospital, Northwood, Middlesex (United Kingdom); Lowe, Gerry; Bryant, Linda; Ostler, Peter; Hughes, Rob; Milner, Jessica; Cladd, Helen [Cancer Centre, Mount Vernon Hospital, Northwood, Middlesex (United Kingdom)

    2012-03-15

    Purpose: To evaluate genitourinary (GU) and gastrointestinal (GI) morbidity and biochemical control of disease in patients with localized prostate adenocarcinoma treated with escalating doses per fraction of high-dose rate brachytherapy alone. Methods and Materials: A total of 197 patients were treated with 34 Gy in four fractions, 36 Gy in four fractions, 31.5 Gy in three fractions, or 26 Gy in two fractions. Median follow-up times were 60, 54, 36, and 6 months, respectively. Results: Incidence of early Grade {>=} 3 GU morbidity was 3% to 7%, and Grade 4 was 0% to 4%. During the first 12 weeks, the highest mean International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) value was 14, and between 6 months and 5 years it was 8. Grade 3 or 4 early GI morbidity was not observed. The 3-year actuarial rate of Grade 3 GU was 3% to 16%, and was 3% to 7% for strictures requiring surgery (4-year rate). An incidence of 1% Grade 3 GI events was seen at 3 years. Late Grade 4 GU or GI events were not observed. At 3 years, 99% of patients with intermediate-risk and 91% with high-risk disease were free of biochemical relapse (log-rank p = 0.02). Conclusions: There was no significant difference in urinary and rectal morbidity between schedules. Biochemical control of disease in patients with intermediate and high risk of relapse was good.

  3. Consistency rates and asymptotic normality of the high risk conditional for functional data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rabhi Abbes

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The maximum of the conditional hazard function is a parameter of great importance in seismicity studies, because it constitutes the maximum risk of occurrence of an earthquake in a given interval of time. Using the kernel nonparametric estimates of the first derivative of the conditional hazard function, we establish uniform convergence properties and asymptotic normality of an estimate of the maximum in the context of independence data.

  4. Consistency rates and asymptotic normality of the high risk conditional for functional data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rabhi Abbes

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The maximum of the conditional hazard function is a parameter of great importance in seismicity studies, because it constitutes the maximum risk of occurrence of an earthquake in a given interval of time. Using the kernel nonparametric estimates of the first derivative of the conditional hazard function, we establish uniform convergence properties and asymptotic normality of an estimate of the maximum in the context of independence data.

  5. FACTORS THAT MAY DETERMINE THE RECOVERY RATE OF FINANCIAL RISK DAMAGES

    OpenAIRE

    Nicoleta Diana Rosioru

    2015-01-01

    The information about the performance of a company, especially about its profitability, are useful to the consideration of potential changes of the economic resources, which the company might further control and the forecast of the ability to generate treasury flows by the existent resources. Also, based on the performance, judgments are expressed, aiming the efficiency whereof the company may use new resources. The performance of company may be influenced by its financial risk. The financial...

  6. Low heart rate as a risk factor for child and adolescent proactive aggressive and impulsive psychopathic behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raine, Adrian; Fung, Annis Lai Chu; Portnoy, Jill; Choy, Olivia; Spring, Victoria L

    2014-01-01

    Although low resting heart rate has been viewed as a well-replicated biological correlate of child and adolescent antisocial behavior, little is known about how it interacts with psychosocial adversity in predisposing to both reactive-proactive aggression and psychopathy, and whether this relationship generalizes to an East Asian population. This study tests the hypothesis that low resting heart rate will be associated with aggression and psychopathic traits, and that heart rate will interact with adversity in predisposing to these antisocial traits. Resting heart rate was assessed in 334 Hong Kong male and female schoolchildren aged 11-17 years. A social adversity index was calculated from a psychosocial interview of the parent, while parents assessed their children on the Reactive-Proactive Aggression Questionnaire and the Antisocial Personality Screening Device. Low resting heart rate was significantly associated with higher proactive aggression, impulsive features of psychopathy, and total child psychopathy. Low resting heart rate interacted with high psychosocial adversity in explaining higher reactive (but not proactive) aggression, as well as impulsive psychopathy. These findings provide support for a biosocial perspective of reactive aggression and impulsive psychopathy, and document low resting heart rate as a robust correlate of both childhood impulsive psychopathic behavior and proactive aggression. To our knowledge, this study is the first to document low resting heart rate as a correlate of child psychopathy and the second to establish low heart rate as a risk factor of antisocial behavior in an East Asian population. The findings provide further evidence for both low resting heart rate as a potential biomarker for childhood psychopathic and aggressive behavior, and also a biosocial perspective on childhood antisocial behavior. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. A longitudinal study investigating neural processing of speech envelope modulation rates in children with (a family risk for) dyslexia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vos, Astrid; Vanvooren, Sophie; Vanderauwera, Jolijn; Ghesquière, Pol; Wouters, Jan

    2017-08-01

    Recent evidence suggests that a fundamental deficit in the synchronization of neural oscillations to temporal information in speech may underlie phonological processing problems in dyslexia. Since previous studies were performed cross-sectionally in school-aged children or adults, developmental aspects of neural auditory processing in relation to reading acquisition and dyslexia remain to be investigated. The present longitudinal study followed 68 children during development from pre-reader (5 years old) to beginning reader (7 years old) and more advanced reader (9 years old). Thirty-six children had a family risk for dyslexia and 14 children eventually developed dyslexia. EEG recordings of auditory steady-state responses to 4 and 20 Hz modulations, corresponding to syllable and phoneme rates, were collected at each point in time. Our results demonstrate an increase in neural synchronization to phoneme-rate modulations around the onset of reading acquisition. This effect was negatively correlated with later reading and phonological skills, indicating that children who exhibit the largest increase in neural synchronization to phoneme rates, develop the poorest reading and phonological skills. Accordingly, neural synchronization to phoneme-rate modulations was found to be significantly higher in beginning and more advanced readers with dyslexia. We found no developmental effects regarding neural synchronization to syllable rates, nor any effects of a family risk for dyslexia. Altogether, our findings suggest that the onset of reading instruction coincides with an increase in neural responsiveness to phoneme-rate modulations, and that the extent of this increase is related to (the outcome of) reading development. Hereby, dyslexic children persistently demonstrate atypically high neural synchronization to phoneme rates from the beginning of reading acquisition onwards. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. 4C.03: SHORT-TERM HEART RATE VARIABILITY AND COGNITIVE FUNCTION IN OLDER SUBJECTS AT RISK OF CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahinrad, S; Van Heemst, D; Macfarlane, P W; Stott, D J; Jukema, J W; De Craen, A J M; Sabayan, B

    2015-06-01

    To test the cross-sectional and longitudinal association of heart rate variability measured from 10-second electrocardiogram recordings with cognitive function in older subjects at high risk of cardiovascular disease. We studied 3,583 men and women, mean age 75.0 years, who were enrolled in PROSPER (PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk) study. From baseline 10-second electrocardiograms the standard deviation of normal-to-normal RR intervals was calculated as the index of heart rate variability. Four domains of cognitive function testing reaction time, processing speed and immediate and delayed memory were assessed at baseline and repeated during a mean follow-up of 3.2 years. Using analyses of covariance, we calculated the adjusted mean values of baseline and annual changes of cognitive scores in thirds of heart rate variability. Participants with lower heart rate variability had worse cognitive function at baseline including reaction time, processing speed and immediate and delayed memory (all p-values heart rate variability had a steeper cognitive decline in reaction time (mean annual change of: 1.49 seconds in the lowest tertile, 0.84 seconds in the middle tertile and 1.06 seconds in the highest tertile, p-value = 0.05) and processing speed (mean annual change of: -0.51 digits coded in the lowest tertile, -0.45 digits coded in the middle tertile and -0.35 digits coded in the highest tertile, p-value = 0.009). There was no significant difference in annual changes of immediate and delayed memory between heart rate variability groups. All these associations remained unchanged after adjustment for medications, cardiovascular risk factors and co-morbidities. The present study indicates that lower heart rate variability measured from 10-second electrocardiogram recording is associated with worse executive function at baseline as well as future decline in executive function independent of cardiovascular risk factors and co-morbidities.

  9. Fetal Heart Rate Reactivity Differs by Women's Psychiatric Status: An Early Marker for Developmental Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monk, Catherine; Sloan, Richard P.; Myers, Michael M.; Ellman, Lauren; Werner, Elizabeth; Jeon, Jiyeon; Tager, Felice; Fifer, William P.

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To determine whether there are differences in fetal heart rate (FHR) reactivity associated with women's psychiatric status. Method: In 57 women in their 36th to 38th week of pregnancy (mean age 27 [+ or -] 6 years), electrocardiogram, blood pressure (BP), respiration (RSP), and FHR were measured during baseline and a psychological…

  10. Development and Validation of the Social, Academic, and Emotional Behavior Risk Screener-Student Rating Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    von der Embse, Nathaniel P.; Iaccarino, Stephanie; Mankin, Ariel; Kilgus, Stephen P.; Magen, Eran

    2017-01-01

    School systems are the primary providers for the increasing number of children with mental health needs. School-based universal screening offers a valuable way to identify children that would benefit from school-based mental health services. However, many existing screening systems rely on teacher ratings alone and do not incorporate student…

  11. Resting heart rate and risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes in asymptomatic aortic stenosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greve, Anders M; Bang, Casper N; Berg, Ronan M G

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: An elevated resting heart rate (RHR) may be an early sign of cardiac failure, but its prognostic value during watchful waiting in asymptomatic aortic stenosis (AS) is largely unknown. METHODS: RHR was determined by annual ECGs in the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS...

  12. 76 FR 37030 - Financial Derivatives Transactions To Offset Interest Rate Risk; Investment and Deposit Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-24

    ..., with certain exceptions, are financial derivatives such as futures, options, interest rate swaps and... to evaluate any hedge transaction using derivatives must include the ability to capture all options... NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 703 Financial Derivatives Transactions To Offset...

  13. The politics of population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfson, M

    1986-03-01

    This article suggests some of the principal factors behind the decisions by an increasing number of countries deciding that the achievement of their national objectives required a policy for population, and the way that they are likely to work out. By 1983, 35 developing countries had an official policy to reduce their population growth rate, and in 34 others, the government supported family planning activities--usually for reasons of health or as a human right. The number is remarkable given the many compelling reasons that governments have for not attempting anything so difficult as to modify demographic trends. The future results of population programs, in social and economic terms, are very difficult to quantify, thus defying cost-benefit analysis of the desirability of investing resources in this area, rather than in something else. There are also powerful political reasons why a government might well hesitate before embarking on a policy to reduce the nation's fertility. At the very least, it implies government interference in the most private and personal of human relations, an invasion of human rights, and a disturbance of the traditional patterns of society and behavior. For many countries that are pursuing a policy to limit population growth, the decision has been taken only after the grievous consequences of not having such a policy have already become manifest. The critical question is how soon a government will make the connection among political disobedience, economic and social distress, and the population explosion, and adopt a population policy. Although the number of developing countries that have officially proclaimed a strongly pro-natalist population policy is relatively small, many have Marxist governments. Overall, governments have several strategies at their disposal: 1) improving the accessability and the quality of the service; 2) promoting population education and family planning motivation (with the assistance of the media, folk art, and

  14. Good prospects overcome domestic politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    The paper discusses the South American gas and oil industries. Opening ever wider to private investment, the continent is attracting a flood of foreign and local firms, pushing drilling and production rates still higher. This is despite a rash of political problems in many countries, including guerrillas, environmentalists, crooked officials and border disputes. Separate evaluations are given for Venezuela, Argentina, Colombia, Brazil, Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, Chile, and briefly for Falkland Islands, Paraguay, Suriname, and Barbados

  15. Politics and health outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Vicente; Muntaner, Carles; Borrell, Carme; Benach, Joan; Quiroga, Agueda; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Vergés, Núria; Pasarín, M Isabel

    2006-09-16

    The aim of this study was to examine the complex interactions between political traditions, policies, and public health outcomes, and to find out whether different political traditions have been associated with systematic patterns in population health over time. We analysed a number of political, economic, social, and health variables over a 50-year period, in a set of wealthy countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Our findings support the hypothesis that the political ideologies of governing parties affect some indicators of population health. Our analysis makes an empirical link between politics and policy, by showing that political parties with egalitarian ideologies tend to implement redistributive policies. An important finding of our research is that policies aimed at reducing social inequalities, such as welfare state and labour market policies, do seem to have a salutary effect on the selected health indicators, infant mortality and life expectancy at birth.

  16. Political learning among youth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solhaug, Trond; Kristensen, Niels Nørgaard

    2014-01-01

    This article focuses on students’ first political learning and explores the research question, what dynamic patterns of political learning can be explored among a selection of young, diverse Danish students’ first political interests? The authors use theories of learning in their analytical...... approach to students´ stories. A group of 10 young students who claim a certain political interest and attend a social studies course in Danish upper secondary school were selected to interview. A “life story approach” is used in the interviews and in the analytical approach. Findings: contrary to many...... “single agent studies in the tradition” of political socialization, the authors find that all students display a complex pattern of political influence. The influence from various agents like school, family, media and peers is also rather complex. Students are not passive recipients of influence...

  17. Establishing Political Deliberation Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rose, Jeremy; Sæbø, Øystein

    2008-01-01

    The extension and transformation of political participation is dependent on widespread deliberation supported by information and communication technologies.  The most commonly found examples of these eParticipation systems are political discussion forums.  Though much of the discussion...... of these technologies is conducted in the eGovernment and (particularly) the eDemocracy literature, political discussion forums present a distinct set of design and management challenges which relate directly to IS concerns. In this article we analyze problems in establishing political deliberation systems under five...... headings: stakeholder engagement, web platform design, web platform management, political process re-shaping and evaluation and improvement. We review the existing literature and present a longitudinal case study of a political discussion forum: the Norwegian DemokratiTorget (Democracy Square).  We define...

  18. Atmosphere: Power, Critique, Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albertsen, Niels

    2016-01-01

    This paper hans three interrelated parts. First, atmosphere is approached through the concept of power. Atmospheres 'grip' us directly or mediate power indirectly by manipulating moods and evoking emotions. How does atmosphere relate to different conceptions of power? Second, atmospheric powers may...... be critiqued. Which conception of critique can be involved? Third, critiquing atmospheric powers can generate political conflict. How does atmospheric disputes relate to conceptions of politics and the political?...

  19. Chaos theory in politics

    CERN Document Server

    Erçetin, Şefika; Tekin, Ali

    2014-01-01

    The present work investigates global politics and political implications of social science and management with the aid of the latest complexity and chaos theories. Until now, deterministic chaos and nonlinear analysis have not been a focal point in this area of research. This book remedies this deficiency by utilizing these methods in the analysis of the subject matter. The authors provide the reader a detailed analysis on politics and its associated applications with the help of chaos theory, in a single edited volume.

  20. Decreasing the infusion rate reduces the proarrhythmic risk of NS-7

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Detre, Elke; Thomsen, Morten Bækgaard; Beekman, Jet D

    2005-01-01

    1 The rate of infusion has been suggested to be important for drug-induced torsades de pointes (TdP) arrhythmias. We investigated the repolarisation-prolonging effects and proarrhythmic properties of NS-7, a neuroprotective drug in development, using two different infusion rates. 2 A fast (5 min...... intravenously (i.v.)) escalating dosing regimen (0.3 and 3.0 mg kg(-1), n=4) of NS-7 was investigated in anaesthetised control dogs in sinus rhythm (SR). This was compared to a slow infusion (60 min i.v.) of one dose (3.0 mg kg(-1), n=4) NS-7. The similar dosing regimens were investigated in anaesthetised dogs...... with chronic, complete AV block (CAVB), an animal model of TdP (n=6). 3 No electrophysiological effects were seen after 0.3 mg kg(-1) NS-7. Fast infusion of 3.0 mg kg(-1) caused prolongation of repolarisation, for example, heart rate corrected QT interval (QT(c)): in SR: 6+/-1%; in CAVB: 10+/-7%, which...

  1. Is Cholesteatoma a Risk Factor for Graft Success Rate in Chronic Otitis Media Surgery?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Faramarzi

    2015-11-01

    Materials and Methods: The present retrospective, study-controlled study investigated 422 ears undergoing COM surgery. The minimum and maximum postoperative follow-up periods were 6 and 48 months, respectively. The study group consisted of patients with cholesteatomatous COM, while the control group included patients with non-cholesteatomatous COM, who had undergone ear surgery.  Postoperative graft success rate and audiological test results were recorded and the effect of cholesteatoma on graft success rate was investigated.  Results: The overall GSR was 92.4%. In the study group (COM with cholesteatoma,the postoperative GSR, mean speech reception threshold improvement, and mean air-bone gap gain were 95.3%, 2.1 dB, and 3.2 dB, respectively. In the control group (COM without cholesteatoma, however, these measurements were 90.9%, 9.4 dB, and 9.1 dB, respectively. The difference between the two groups was not statistically significant.  Conclusion:  The study results suggest that cholesteatoma is not a significant prognostic factor in graft success rate.

  2. Literacy and race as risk factors for low rates of advance directives in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waite, Katherine R; Federman, Alex D; McCarthy, Danielle M; Sudore, Rebecca; Curtis, Laura M; Baker, David W; Wilson, Elizabeth A H; Hasnain-Wynia, Romana; Wolf, Michael S; Paasche-Orlow, Michael K

    2013-03-01

    To examine the effect of the relationship between literacy and other individual-level factors on having an advance directive (AD). Face-to-face structured interview. Participants were recruited from an academic general internal medicine clinic and one of four federally qualified health centers in Chicago. Seven hundred eighty-four adults aged 55 to 74. Assessment of participant literacy, sociodemographic factors, and having an AD for medical care. One-eighth (12.4%) of participants with low literacy, 26.6% of those with marginal literacy, and 49.5% of those with adequate literacy reported having an AD (P literacy and race were independently associated with less likelihood of having an AD. Specifically, participants with limited literacy (risk ratio (RR) = 0.45, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.22-0.95) and African Americans (RR = 0.64, 95% CI = 0.47-0.88) were less likely to have an AD. Exploratory analyses showed that there was not a significant interaction between the effect of literacy and race. Limited literacy and African-American race were significant risk factors for not having an AD in this cohort of older adults. Literacy and race probably represent two separate but important causal pathways that need to be understood to improve how the healthcare system ascertains and protects individuals' advance care preferences. © 2013, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2013, The American Geriatrics Society.

  3. Estimation of value at risk in currency exchange rate portfolio using asymmetric GJR-GARCH Copula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurrahmat, Mohamad Husein; Noviyanti, Lienda; Bachrudin, Achmad

    2017-03-01

    In this study, we discuss the problem in measuring the risk in a portfolio based on value at risk (VaR) using asymmetric GJR-GARCH Copula. The approach based on the consideration that the assumption of normality over time for the return can not be fulfilled, and there is non-linear correlation for dependent model structure among the variables that lead to the estimated VaR be inaccurate. Moreover, the leverage effect also causes the asymmetric effect of dynamic variance and shows the weakness of the GARCH models due to its symmetrical effect on conditional variance. Asymmetric GJR-GARCH models are used to filter the margins while the Copulas are used to link them together into a multivariate distribution. Then, we use copulas to construct flexible multivariate distributions with different marginal and dependence structure, which is led to portfolio joint distribution does not depend on the assumptions of normality and linear correlation. VaR obtained by the analysis with confidence level 95% is 0.005586. This VaR derived from the best Copula model, t-student Copula with marginal distribution of t distribution.

  4. Human-caused wildfire risk rating for prevention planning in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, Jesús; Vega-Garcia, Cristina; Chuvieco, Emilio

    2009-02-01

    This paper identifies human factors associated with high forest fire risk in Spain and analyses the spatial distribution of fire occurrence in the country. The spatial units were 6,066 municipalities of the Spanish peninsular territory and Balearic Islands. The study covered a 13-year series of fire occurrence data. One hundred and eight variables were generated and input to a dedicated Geographic Information System (GIS) to model different factors related to fire ignition. After exploratory analysis, 29 were selected to build a predictive model of human fire ignition using logistic regression analysis. The binary model estimated the probability of high or low occurrence of forest fires, as defined by an ignition danger index that is currently used by the Spanish forest service (number of fires divided by forest area in each municipality). Thirteen explanatory variables were identified by the model. They were related to agricultural landscape fragmentation, agricultural abandonment and development processes. The prediction agreement found between the model binary outputs and the historical fire data was 85.3% for the model building dataset (60% of municipalities). A slightly lower predictive power (76.2%) was found for the validation data (the remaining 40%). The probabilistic output of the logistic was significantly related to the raw ignition index (Spearman correlation of 0.710) used by the Spanish Forest Service. Therefore, the model can be considered a good predictor of human-caused fire risk, aiding spatial decisions related to prevention planning in Spanish municipalities.

  5. Defining political community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sladeček Michal M.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the concept of political community, its constitution and value. The starting point is that the concept of community is not sufficiently recognized in modern political theories, as well as in contemporary liberal theory. In the last two decades communitarian and republican political theory attempted to revitalize this notion. The first part of the paper elaborates on the polemics between these three theoretical orientations. The concluding part examines the possibilities and prospect for stable political community in conditions of pluralism of particular social communities and ethnocultural heterogeneity.

  6. Politics, Security, Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wæver, Ole

    2011-01-01

    ’ is distinct from both the study of political practices of securitization and explorations of competing concepts of politics among security theories. It means tracking what kinds of analysis the theory can produce and whether such analysis systematically impacts real-life political struggles. Securitization...... theory is found to ‘act politically’ through three structural features that systematically shape the political effects of using the theory. The article further discusses – on the basis of the preceding articles in the special issue – three emerging debates around securitization theory: ethics...

  7. Envy, Politics, and Age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Christine R.; Henniger, Nicole E.

    2013-01-01

    In the last 5 years, the phrase “politics of envy” has appeared more than 621 times in English-language newspapers, generally in opinion essays contending that political liberalism reflects and exploits feelings of envy. Oddly, this assertion has not been tested empirically. We did so with a large adult sample (n = 357). Participants completed a Dispositional Envy Scale and questions about political ideology, socioeconomic status, and age. Envy and age were moderately correlated; younger people reported greater envy. Political ideology and envy were weakly correlated; however, this relationship was not significant when controlling for age. PMID:23471177

  8. Gendering transnational party politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kantola, Johanna; Rolandsen-Agustín, Lise

    2016-01-01

    research traditions, we build toward an analytical framework to study gender and transnational party politics. Our empirical analysis focuses on two policy issues, the economic crisis and the sexual and reproductive health and rights, analyzing European Parliament reports, debates and voting on the issues......In this article, we analyze transnational party politics in the European Union from a gender perspective. This is a subject that has been neglected both by mainstream European studies on party politics and by gender scholars who work on political parties. Drawing on the insights of these two...... right axis and, at the same time, internal divisions within party groups affect policy output....

  9. New Institutional Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buğra KALKAN

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available New institutional politics is an interdisciplinary movement that tries to reinstate the institutional politics to the center of the political science. After the limits of formal-legal analyze, used by old institutional politics, have been criticized by behaviorists, rational choice and neo-Marxist movements, since 1950, the state was alienated from the center of the political studies as an independent variable. Since 1980, neo institutional politics, raised as a reaction to this development, has been developing a new description and understanding of the institution which goes beyond the limitations of the old one. The rise and change of the political institutions and the interactions between political institutions and the actors, are being retheorized, by depending on informal rules and conventions as much as formal rules, and pointing out cultural factors as much as legal factors. So, in this study, rational choice, sociological and historical new institutional politics, as the three different school of new institutionalism, will be examined separately and there will be a debate on colliding and overlapping points of these schools

  10. Astronomy and Politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, John M.

    The relationship between astronomy and politics is a complex but important part of understanding the practice of astronomy throughout history. This chapter explores some of the ways that astronomy, astrology, and politics have interacted, placing particular focus on the way that astronomy and astrology have been used for political purposes by both people in power and people who wish to influence a ruler's policy. Also discussed are the effects that politics has had on the development of astronomy and, in particular, upon the recording and preservation of astronomical knowledge.

  11. Do Differences in Risk Factors Explain the Lower Rates of Coronary Heart Disease in Japanese Versus U.S. Women?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willcox, Bradley J.; Usui, Takeshi; Carr, John Jeffrey; Barinas-Mitchell, Emma J.M.; Masaki, Kamal H.; Watanabe, Makoto; Tracy, Russell P.; Bertolet, Marianne H.; Evans, Rhobert W.; Nishimura, Kunihiko; Sutton-Tyrrell, Kim; Kuller, Lewis H.; Miyamoto, Yoshihiro

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Background Mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) in women in Japan is one of the lowest in developed countries. In an attempt to shed some light on possible reasons of lower CHD in women in Japan compared with the United States, we extensively reviewed and analyzed existing national data and recent literature. Methods We searched recent epidemiological studies that reported incidence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and examined risk factors for CHD in women in Japan. Then, we compared trends in risk factors between women currently aged 50–69 years in Japan and the United States, using national statistics and other available resources. Results Recent epidemiological studies have clearly shown that AMI incidence in women in Japan is lower than that reported from other countries, and that lipids, blood pressure (BP), diabetes, smoking, and early menopause are independent risk factors. Comparing trends in risk factors between women in Japan and the United States, current levels of serum total cholesterol are higher in women in Japan and levels have been similar at least since 1990. Levels of BP have been higher in in Japan for the past 3 decades. Prevalence of type 2 diabetes has been similar in Japanese and white women currently aged 60–69 for the past 2 decades. In contrast, rates of cigarette smoking, although low in women in both countries, have been lower in women in Japan. Conclusions Differences in risk factors and their trends are unlikely to explain the difference in CHD rates in women in Japan and the United States. Determining the currently unknown factors responsible for low CHD mortality in women in Japan may lead to new strategy for CHD prevention. PMID:24073782

  12. The rate of and risk factors for frequent hospitalization in systemic lupus erythematosus: results from the Korean lupus network registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J W; Park, D J; Kang, J H; Choi, S E; Yim, Y R; Kim, J E; Lee, K E; Wen, L; Kim, T J; Park, Y W; Sung, Y K; Lee, S S

    2016-11-01

    Objectives The survival rate of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus has improved in the last few decades, but the rate of hospitalization and health care costs for these patients remain higher than in the general population. Thus, we evaluated the rate of hospitalization and associated risk factors in an inception cohort of Korean patients with lupus. Methods Of the 507 patients with systemic lupus erythematosus enrolled in the KORean lupus NETwork, we investigated an inception cohort consisting of 196 patients with systemic lupus erythematosus presenting within 6 months of diagnosis based on the American College of Rheumatology classification criteria. We evaluated the causes of hospitalization, demographic characteristics, and laboratory and clinical data at the time of systemic lupus erythematosus diagnosis of hospitalized patients and during a follow-up period. We calculated the hospitalization rate as the number of total hospitalizations divided by the disease duration, and defined "frequent hospitalization" as hospitalization more than once per year. Results Of the 196 patients, 117 (59.6%) were admitted to hospital a total of 257 times during the 8-year follow-up period. Moreover, 22 (11.2%) patients were hospitalized frequently. The most common reasons for hospitalization included disease flares, infection, and pregnancy-related morbidity. In the univariate regression analysis, malar rash, arthritis, pericarditis, renal involvement, fever, systemic lupus erythematosus disease activity index > 12, hemoglobin level risk factors for frequent hospitalization. Conclusions Our results showed that frequent hospitalization occurred in 11.2% of hospitalized patients and arthritis, pericarditis, and anti-Sjögren's syndrome A antibody positivity at the time of diagnosis were risk factors for frequent hospitalization.

  13. Sensitivity analysis of the leaching rate parameter in assessing the environmental risk of phosphogypsum application in sanitary landfills

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marchesi, Marcos Vinicius A.; Hama, Naruhiko; Jacomino, Vanusa M.F.; Ladeira, Ana Claudia Q.; Cota, Stela D.S., E-mail: mvmarchesi@hotmail.com, E-mail: sdsc@cdtn.br, E-mail: vmfj@cdtn.br, E-mail: ana.ladeira@cdtn.br, E-mail: naruhikohama@hotmail.com [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    The attack with sulfuric acid to phosphate rock produces both phosphoric acid, basic raw material in the manufacture of fertilizers, as a by-product called phosphogypsum. Phosphogypsum is composed mostly of calcium sulfate dihydrated, but may have high levels of impurities from the phosphate rock matrix as a series of natural radionuclides, and heavy metals (e.g. Cd, Zn) and metalloids (e.g. , As and Se). Although it is used for agricultural purposes and more recently in construction, in Brazil the generation rate estimated at six million tons per year is much higher than the amount spent on existing alternatives, and therefore mostly deposited in piles in the same place production, causing thereby the risk of contamination of soil and water resources of the region and providing risk to human health. Taken into account the need to find alternative arrangements for phosphogypsum and reduce the impact generated by its contaminants, this study aims to analyze the sensitivity of the leaching rate parameter in the environmental risk evaluation of the application of phosphogypsum in landfills through mathematical modeling, where it is evaluated the concentration of heavy metals and radionuclides in the layer of the soil under the clay layer of the landfill.

  14. Sensitivity analysis of the leaching rate parameter in assessing the environmental risk of phosphogypsum application in sanitary landfills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marchesi, Marcos Vinicius A.; Hama, Naruhiko; Jacomino, Vanusa M.F.; Ladeira, Ana Claudia Q.; Cota, Stela D.S.

    2013-01-01

    The attack with sulfuric acid to phosphate rock produces both phosphoric acid, basic raw material in the manufacture of fertilizers, as a by-product called phosphogypsum. Phosphogypsum is composed mostly of calcium sulfate dihydrated, but may have high levels of impurities from the phosphate rock matrix as a series of natural radionuclides, and heavy metals (e.g. Cd, Zn) and metalloids (e.g. , As and Se). Although it is used for agricultural purposes and more recently in construction, in Brazil the generation rate estimated at six million tons per year is much higher than the amount spent on existing alternatives, and therefore mostly deposited in piles in the same place production, causing thereby the risk of contamination of soil and water resources of the region and providing risk to human health. Taken into account the need to find alternative arrangements for phosphogypsum and reduce the impact generated by its contaminants, this study aims to analyze the sensitivity of the leaching rate parameter in the environmental risk evaluation of the application of phosphogypsum in landfills through mathematical modeling, where it is evaluated the concentration of heavy metals and radionuclides in the layer of the soil under the clay layer of the landfill

  15. Assessing Drawdown-at-Risk in Brazilian Real Foreign Exchange Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinicius Ratton Brandi

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The investigation of the stochastic behavior of financial series has become widespread over the literature. There is empirical and theoretical evidence that the total stock price change over a long period is usually concentrated in the a few hectic runs of trading days. The drawdown is a random variable which provides information on alternative characteristics of market behavior during these periods. In this work, we use distributions from extreme value theory to model the severity of drawdowns and drawups. We illustrate using nine currency exchange rates and gold.

  16. Benefits and risks of using smart pumps to reduce medication error rates: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohashi, Kumiko; Dalleur, Olivia; Dykes, Patricia C; Bates, David W

    2014-12-01

    Smart infusion pumps have been introduced to prevent medication errors and have been widely adopted nationally in the USA, though they are not always used in Europe or other regions. Despite widespread usage of smart pumps, intravenous medication errors have not been fully eliminated. Through a systematic review of recent studies and reports regarding smart pump implementation and use, we aimed to identify the impact of smart pumps on error reduction and on the complex process of medication administration, and strategies to maximize the benefits of smart pumps. The medical literature related to the effects of smart pumps for improving patient safety was searched in PUBMED, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (2000-2014) and relevant papers were selected by two researchers. After the literature search, 231 papers were identified and the full texts of 138 articles were assessed for eligibility. Of these, 22 were included after removal of papers that did not meet the inclusion criteria. We assessed both the benefits and negative effects of smart pumps from these studies. One of the benefits of using smart pumps was intercepting errors such as the wrong rate, wrong dose, and pump setting errors. Other benefits include reduction of adverse drug event rates, practice improvements, and cost effectiveness. Meanwhile, the current issues or negative effects related to using smart pumps were lower compliance rates of using smart pumps, the overriding of soft alerts, non-intercepted errors, or the possibility of using the wrong drug library. The literature suggests that smart pumps reduce but do not eliminate programming errors. Although the hard limits of a drug library play a main role in intercepting medication errors, soft limits were still not as effective as hard limits because of high override rates. Compliance in using smart pumps is key towards effectively preventing errors. Opportunities for improvement include upgrading drug

  17. Impact of Advance Rate on Entrapment Risk of a Double-Shielded TBM in Squeezing Ground

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasanpour, Rohola; Rostami, Jamal; Barla, Giovanni

    2015-05-01

    Shielded tunnel boring machines (TBMs) can get stuck in squeezing ground due to excessive tunnel convergence under high in situ stress. This typically coincides with extended machine stoppages, when the ground has sufficient time to undergo substantial displacements. Excessive convergence of the ground beyond the designated overboring means ground pressure against the shield and high shield frictional resistance that, in some cases, cannot be overcome by the TBM thrust system. This leads to machine entrapment in the ground, which causes significant delays and requires labor-intensive and risky operations of manual excavation to release the machine. To evaluate the impact of the time factor on the possibility of machine entrapment, a comprehensive 3D finite difference simulation of a double-shielded TBM in squeezing ground was performed. The modeling allowed for observation of the impact of the tunnel advance rate on the possibility of machine entrapment in squeezing ground. For this purpose, the model included rock mass properties related to creep in severe squeezing conditions. This paper offers an overview of the modeling results for a given set of rock mass and TBM parameters, as well as lining characteristics, including the magnitude of displacement and contact forces on shields and ground pressure on segmental lining versus time for different advance rates.

  18. Temporal evolution of the risk factors associated with low birth weight rates in Brazilian capitals (1996-2011).

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Souza Buriol, Viviane Costa; Hirakata, Vânia; Goldani, Marcelo Zubaran; da Silva, Clécio Homrich

    2016-01-01

    To analyze the trend of low birth weight (LBW) and its determinants in Brazilian state capitals between 1996 and 2011. We intended to determine which variables are associated with LBW during the period studied. This is a cross-sectional study that used data from the National Information System of Live Births from 26 state capitals and Brasilia (the federal capital), divided into five geographical regions. The Average Annual Percentage of Change (AAPC) was used to assess the possible time trend in the low birth weight rates for considering all regions together and each region separately, according to each variable, and the Poisson regression was calculated in order to demonstrate time trends in low birth weight and the impact of variables (age and educational maternal level, antenatal visits, type of delivery, and gestational age) during the period. All variables were analyzed together using the Poisson regression as well. From the total of 11,200,255 live births used in this study, there was a significant reduction in the number of live births, especially in the more developed regions. The low birth weight rate was 8 %, and it was stable during the period. Considering regional trends, the rate was higher in the Southeast and South regions, and significantly higher in the North, Northeast, and Central West regions. Improvements in maternal education and antenatal care coverage reduced the risk for low birth weight in all regions. Also, there was an increase in caesarean sections in all regions, with a small impact on low birth weight rates. Improvements in education and health care reduced the risk for low birth weight in all Brazilian regions during the period of study. Trends in low birth weight rates and the associated factors differ from region to region, showing different stages of demographic, epidemiological and developmental transition in Brazil. The present study was approved by the Research Ethics Committee at the Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre

  19. A TWO-WAY ROAD: RATES OF HIV INFECTION AND BEHAVIORAL RISK FACTORS AMONG DEPORTED MEXICAN LABOR MIGRANTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rangel, M. Gudelia; Martinez-Donate, Ana P.; Hovell, Melbourne; Sipan, Carol L.; Zellner, Jennifer A.; Gonzalez-Fagoaga, Eduardo; Kelley, Norma J.; Asadi-Gonzalez, Ahmed; Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos

    2012-01-01

    A large number of Mexican migrants are deported to Mexico and released in the North Mexican border region every year. Despite their volume and high vulnerability, little is known about the level of HIV infection and related risk behaviors among this hard-to-reach population. We conducted a cross-sectional, probability survey with deported Mexican migrants in Tijuana, Mexico (N=693) and estimated levels of HIV infection and behavioral risk factors among this migrant flow. The sample and population estimated rates of HIV for deported males were 1.23% and 0.80%, respectively. No positive cases were found among the female sample. We found high lifetime rates of reported sexually transmitted infections (22.3%) and last 12-months rates of unprotected sex (63.0%), sex with multiple sexual partners (18.1%), casual partners (25.7%), and sex workers (8.6%), compared to U.S. and Mexico adults. HIV prevention, testing, and treatment programs for this large, vulnerable, and transnational population need to be implemented in both the U.S. and Mexico. PMID:22562390

  20. The Prediction of Political Competencies by Political Action and Political Media Consumption

    OpenAIRE

    Frank Reichert

    2014-01-01

    Political competencies are often considered a precondition for political action; however, they are not independent of previous political participation, which may also include the frequency and the kind of political media consumption. My research aims at finding out the importance of participation in political activities in the past, as well as taking over civic responsibility in positions at school or university for cognitive political competencies. The focus is on structural political knowle...