Ethics of Risk. Kristin Shrader-Frechette's Philosophical Critique of Risk Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heikkeroe, Topi [Univ. of Helsinki (Finland). Centre for Social Ethics

2006-09-15

This paper addresses risk assessment from a philosophical point of view. It presents and critically reviews the work of Kristin Shrader-Frechette. It introduces the ethical, epistemological, and methodological issues related to risk assessment. The paper focuses on the ethical questions of justice in risk decisions. It opens by framing the relationship between ethics and technology in the modern world. Then the paper turns to a brief description of risk assessment as a central method in technological decision making. It proceeds to show how Shrader-Frechette analyzes ethical and political aspects of risk assessment. The central argumentation In her critique follows RawIsian lines: distributive and participatory inequalities in creating technological constructions need to be justified. To clarify this requirement she formulates the Principle of Prima Facie Political Equity (PPFPE), which is her central tool in most of her ethical criticism, for instance, in relation to the future generations: prima facie. all generations should be treated equally. Brief critical remarks conclude the paper. They touch upon placing Shrader-Frechette's project on the academic chart and her liberal individualist anthropology.

Political risk and export promotion: evidence from Germany

OpenAIRE

Moser, Christoph; Nestmann, Thorsten; Wedow, Michael

2006-01-01

Political risk represents an important hidden transaction cost that reduces international trade. This paper investigates the claim that German public export credit guarantees (Hermes guarantees) mitigate this friction to trade flows and hence promote exports. We employ an empirical trade gravity model, where we explicitly control for political risk in the importing country in order to evaluate the effect of export guarantees. The idea behind export promotion through public export credit agenc...

The importance of the impact of political risk factors in South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rudolf Essel

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Political risk factors often impact negatively on the financial results of an enterprise, industry, geographical region or an entire country. In severe cases they may even lead to financial disasters. Previous research (by Essel identified 10 specific political risk factors which are common to emerging market economies. As South Africa is a developing country with an emerging market economy, these 10 political risk factors should also be present in this country. This paper focuses on the importance of the impact of political risk factors on an agent’s total annual claims amount when underwriting political risk insurance in South Africa. The objective of this research paper embodies the improvement of financial decision-making by a particular enterprise, industry, geographical region or country operating in an emerging market economy, pertaining to the importance of the impact of political risk factors. A literature study as well as an empirical survey was done to achieve the study’s objective. The conclusions of this research should also be valuable to other enterprises, industries, geographical regions or countries which operate in an emerging market economy.

The use of comparative risk assessment in decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chicken, J.C.; Hayns, M.R.; Tolley, B.

1989-01-01

This paper justifies: 1) Comparative risk assessment provides a way of establishing whether or not the risks associated with a novel proposal are likely to satisfy current norms. 2) Comparative risk assessment is an aid to decision making when for some reason there is inadequate quantitative data about the risks associated with a project. 3) One problem is that there is no single universally acceptable norm. Norms vary both with time and from activity to activity. The spread of acceptable norms spans at least two orders of magnitude. 4) For any comparative risk assessment to be considered more than a suggestion on how acceptable a risk is, the risks that are compared must be similar and located in similar cultural and geographical environments. 5) Ulitmately justification of the acceptability of a project must be based on data generated directly by the project itself and any opinion based on comparative evidence must be iteratively revised as direct hard evidence becomes available. 6) Comparative risk assessment has a useful role in presentations to the lay public about the acceptability of a particular risk. 7) There may be more problems in making a comparative assessment of risk acceptability in socio-political terms than in technical or economic terms. The central requirement that the comparison must be based on data from similar cultural backgrounds is often hard to satisfy in relation to socio-political considerations

HOW MULTINATIONAL CORPORATIONS USE LOBBYING AND ADVOCACY TO MITIGATE POLITICAL RISKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Violeta Iftinchi

2018-05-01

Full Text Available In their international activities multinational corporations (MNCs face various risks. Political risk is one of them. Expropriations, transfer and convertibility restrictions, breach of contracts, acts of terrorism, domestic political violence or other adverse regulatory changes and/or negative government action represent forms of political risks. Incorporating political risk in their risk management strategies becomes a necessity for MNCs in their search for profits and new markets. This article presents how MNCs use lobbying and advocacy as means to engage with governments and politicians in the country of origin (home country, in the country where a MNC has operations (host country or at international level (by creating ties with international organisations in order to mitigate political risks. The case of Repsol and its investment in Argentina is used to demonstrate the application of such tools. The article presents two limitations that might determine the success or failure of MNCs’ lobbying and advocacy activities: governments' unpredictable views towards MNCs and reputational risks. The article has also identified a main difficulty in identifying and examining MNCs way of using lobbying and advocacy to engage with government officials and politicians. This difficulty comes from the informal character of such contacts which makes lobbying and advocacy almost impossible to identify.

Ethical aspects of the assessment of technical risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birnbacher, D.

1991-01-01

When technology assessment goes over into technology politics, then questions arise which can only be answered in an ethical way. Questions like, which risk strategy has to be the basis for decision-making, and is a decision for or against the development, introduction or maintenance of a certain technology to be based at all on risk assessments? The author considers pure consequentialistic ethics the most plausible option, and does not see a basic difference in a risk-benefit analysis and ethical technology assessment. (DG) [de

Political risk in fair market value estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gruy, H.J.; Hartsock, J.H.

1996-01-01

Political risk arises from unstable governments, commercial establishments and infrastructure as well as labor unrest. All these factors vary from country to country and from time to time. Banks and insurance companies quantify these risks, but they are reluctant to divulge their opinions for fear of alienating possible customers that have been assigned a high risk. An investment in a fixed property such as an oil and gas lease, concession or other mineral interest is subject to political risk. No one will deny that money to be received several years in the future has a greater value today in a country with a stable government, stable tax regime, a sound economy and reliable labor force than in a Third World country where a revolution is brewing. Even in stable countries, the risk of tax law changes, exorbitant environmental production regulations and cleanup costs may vary. How do these factors affect fair market value and how are these calculations made? An important consideration discussed in this paper is the treatment of capital investments

Socio-political implications of risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hipel, K.W.; Fraser, N.W.

1982-01-01

A conflict analysis technique is presented which allows risk to be considered when ascertaining the politically and socially feasible solutions to a given large scale engineering project. In particular, the improved metagame analysis algorithm can be employed to model a given conflict or game which may be concerned with risk and to predict the possible compromise solutions. Risk can be entertained in the analysis since it may affect the preference structure of a specific participant for the possible feasible outcomes in the dispute. To demonstrate how the methodology works in practice, it is applied to the Garrison Diversion Unit conflict which is a serious environmental dispute involving American and Canadian interests

Assessment and perception of risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Daglish, J

1981-01-01

A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

Legal and legal-ethical aspects of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seiler, H.

1991-01-01

The article examines why human beings accept risks. An assessment of risk is always carried out in connection with the benefits to be had from an action which is a potential risk. Decisions on the acceptability of risks are the consequence of political assessments. An assessment of risk on a legal basis is only possible to a limited degree. What is important are the criteria according to which the acceptability of risks is determined. In this context, the concept of damage proves itself to be of central importance; this concept includes the question as to the degree to which such damage can be tolerated socially and politically, the question of future damage as well as the degree to which such damage is reversible. It would be ideal if those persons who are affected by potential damage were to be the ones to make such decisions, but this is extremely difficult to put into practice. Special care must be taken in regard to decisions which have repercussions for future generations or for the state of nature. In this case, the decision which those persons who are potentially affected would most probably make must be anticipated and taken into account as if they were here to participate in the decision-making process. (orig./HSCH) [de

Refuse and the 'Risk Society': The Political Ecology of Risk in Inter-war Britain.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Timothy; Bulmer, Sarah

2013-05-01

This article responds to current critiques of Ulrich Beck's 'risk society' thesis by historians of science and medicine. Those who have engaged with the concept of risk society have been content to accept the fundamental categories of Beck's analysis. In contrast, we argue that Beck's risk society thesis underplays two key themes. First, the role of capitalist social relations as the driver of technological change and the transformation of everyday life; and second, the ways in which hegemonic discourses of risk can be appropriated and transformed by counter-hegemonic forces. In place of 'risk society', we propose an approach based upon a 'political ecology of risk', which emphasises the social relations that are fundamental to the everyday politics of environmental health.

Political Culture and Risk Analysis: An Outline of Somalia, Tunisia, and Libya

Science.gov (United States)

2016-11-21

unrest, outside stakeholders will always have concerns regarding any signs of institu- tional, economic, political , and social instability . From...predictability, stability , continuity, and security, 40 Political Culture and Risk Analysis MCU Journal serving as a filter for all subsequent (collective...armed conflict and its accompanying instability has remained. 46 Political Culture and Risk Analysis MCU Journal The 30 years preceding 1991 was

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

Climate change: a political assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Keefe, W. [Solutions Consulting (USA)

2000-07-01

The paper consists of the author's personal remarks on a political assessment of climate change policy in the United States. The author focuses on four major political forces; environmental organisations, the Clinton-Gore administration, the U.S. senate and the business community. The author considers that much of the climate change debate is scaremongering by the environmentalists with little scientific basis. There is a need for business to present its case better if it is to avoid economically damaging, but unjustified environmental regulations.

The politics of urban climate risks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blok, Anders

2018-01-01

makes valuable contributions, this article suggests that all of them remain under-theorized from the point of view of the specific dynamics of local–global interdependencies in urban climate risk politics. In response, the article draws on Beck in outlining the contours of new urban–cosmopolitan risk...... communities. To this effect, empirical studies into large-scale East Asian and European port cities is used to illustrate how a shared transnational risk imaginary (e.g. of future sea-level rises) may help spur collective action and new forms of trans-boundary solidarity. Reflecting on such research practices...

Risk assessment as rhetorical practice: The ironic mathematics behind terrorism, banking, and public policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Danisch, Robert

2013-02-01

The twin problems of possible terrorist attacks and a global economic recession have been, and continue to be, critical components of contemporary political culture. At the center of both problems is the assessment of future risk. To calculate the probability that a loan will default or to estimate the likelihood of an act of bioterrorism crippling an American city is to engage in the quantitative science of risk assessment. The process of risk assessment is an attempt to rationalize the uncertainty and contingency of the future. In this essay, I read risk assessments made by the Department of Homeland Security and by major banks during the recent financial collapse as examples of rhetorical practice. As such, I show the rhetorical form and function of risk assessments in order to determine the effect that they have on contemporary political culture.

Political party affiliation, political ideology and mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Pabayo, Roman; Kawachi, Ichiro; Muennig, Peter

2015-05-01

Ecological and cross-sectional studies have indicated that conservative political ideology is associated with better health. Longitudinal analyses of mortality are needed because subjective assessments of ideology may confound subjective assessments of health, particularly in cross-sectional analyses. Data were derived from the 2008 General Social Survey-National Death Index data set. Cox proportional analysis models were used to determine whether political party affiliation or political ideology was associated with time to death. Also, we attempted to identify whether self-reported happiness and self-rated health acted as mediators between political beliefs and time to death. In this analysis of 32,830 participants and a total follow-up time of 498,845 person-years, we find that political party affiliation and political ideology are associated with mortality. However, with the exception of independents (adjusted HR (AHR)=0.93, 95% CI 0.90 to 0.97), political party differences are explained by the participants' underlying sociodemographic characteristics. With respect to ideology, conservatives (AHR=1.06, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.12) and moderates (AHR=1.06, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.11) are at greater risk for mortality during follow-up than liberals. Political party affiliation and political ideology appear to be different predictors of mortality. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

How politicians make decisions under risk: a political choice experiment

OpenAIRE

Enrique Fatás; Tibor Neugebauer; Pilar Tamborero

2004-01-01

We report on an experimental study with real-world politicians. These political experts face political choice problems under risk and probability. Thus, we test the frequently observed violations of rational choice theory -the reference point effect, loss aversion, framing effects, and the common ratio effect- with experts from the field. Their choices violate expected utility theory. Nevertheless, they appear to be more rational and less risk averse (loving) in the domain of gains (losses) t...

Risk assessment of Short and Medium Chain Chlorinated Paraffin’s (SCCP and MCCP)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Frans Møller; Olsen, Stig Irving

2002-01-01

findings of the Short Chain Chlorinated Paraffin (SCCP) and the draft Medium Chain Chlorinated Paraffin (MCCP) risk assessments. The political actions taken as a consequence of the assessments are also described. The risk assessments have been prepared according to the EU Technical Guidance Document (TGD...

Privatization, political risk and stock market development in emerging economies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Perotti, E.C.; van Oijen, P. H.

2001-01-01

This paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test that gradually resolves uncertainty over

Privatization, political risk and stock market development in emerging economies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Perotti, E.C.; van Oijen, P.H.

1999-01-01

This paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test that gradually resolves uncertainty over

Privatization, political risk and stock market development in emerging economies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Perotti, E.C.; van Oijen, P.H.

1999-01-01

This paper investigates whether privatisation in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatisation programme represents a major political test which gradually resolves uncertainty

The assessment and perception of risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daglish, J.

1981-01-01

A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors. (U.K.)

Insure Against Commercial and Political Risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fergusson, Fergus

2003-01-01

The oil and gas sector is enormously diverse, ranging from the giant exploration, production and supply companies to the manufacturers, suppliers and service providers that support an industry of crucial importance to the global community. For understandable reasons, risk management in the oil and gas sector has tended to concentrate on health and safety and environmental issues. Consideration must be made for the risks of engaging in domestic and international trade. The concept of risk and the consequential discipline of risk management underpin and support many of the fundamental activities that maintain successful trade flows. Risk management revolves around the organised procedures of mitigating the foreseen and unforeseen consequences of danger, injury and loss that can have adverse and potentially catastrophic effects on the environment, human lives, economies, political stability and business performance

Element of risk: The politics of radon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cole, L.A.

1994-01-01

The recent history of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) approach to managing the risk of indoor radon offers a rich base from which to consider US practice in risk assessment, management, and communication. The biological evidence of risks from high-level exposure to radon is in many ways stronger--and the gap to be spanned by extrapolation from laboratory animal studies to ambient exposures narrower--than for many of the toxic and hazardous air pollutants that have been the focus of EPA regulatory attention. The epidemiological evidence about radon is complicated by a number of confounding variables, but this is often the state of epidemiological evidence. Radon has also been the focus of a considerable amount of research on risk communication. To complete the promising ingredients, disagreements between federal regulators at EPA and managers of federal nuclear programs run by the Department of Energy (DOE) concerning radon from uranium mill tailings, for example, and other issues in radiation health physics offer a rich array of opportunities to explore issues in federal bureaucratic politics. This book provides a straightforward report of much of the development of US policy on indoor radon over the past decade. As such, it gives readers unfamiliar with the evolution of radon regulation an opportunity to come quickly up to speed on many historical details

New method for assessing risks of email

Science.gov (United States)

Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

2013-03-01

E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

Privatization, political risk and stock market development in emerging economies

OpenAIRE

Perotti, E.C.; van Oijen, P.H.

1999-01-01

This paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test that gradually resolves uncertainty over political commitment to a market-oriented policy as well as to regulatory and private property rights. We present evidence suggesting that progress in privatization is indeed correlated with impro...

Expanding the disaster risk management framework: Measuring the constructed level of national identity as a factor of political risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barend Prinsloo

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Political risk is identified as a dominant risk category of disaster risk management (DRM which could negatively affect the success of those measures implemented to reduce disaster risk. Key to political risk is the construct of national identity which, if poorly constructed, could greatly contribute to political risk. This article proposed a tool to measure the construct of national identity and to provide recommendations to strengthen the construct in order to mitigate the exacerbating influence it may have on political risk and ultimately on DRM. The design of the measurement tool consisted of a mixed methodological approach employing both quantitative and qualitative data. The data collection instruments included a literature review (which is shortly provided in the previous sections and an empirical study that utilised data obtained through structured questionnaires. Although the results of the proposed measuring instrument did not include a representative sample of all the cultures in SouthAfrica, the results alluded to different levels for the construction of national identity among black and white respondents, possibly because of different ideological expectations among these groups. The results of the study should be considered as a validation of the measuring tool and not necessarily of the construct of national identity in South Africa. The measuring tool is thus promising for future studies to reduce political risk and ultimately disaster risk.

Making sense of climate change risks and responses at the community level: A cultural-political lens

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ainka A. Granderson

2014-01-01

Full Text Available How to better assess, communicate and respond to risks from climate change at the community level have emerged as key questions within climate risk management. Recent research to address these questions centres largely on psychological factors, exploring how cognition and emotion lead to biases in risk assessment. Yet, making sense of climate change and its responses at the community level demands attention to the cultural and political processes that shape how risk is conceived, prioritized and managed. I review the emergent literature on risk perceptions and responses to climate change using a cultural-political lens. This lens highlights how knowledge, meaning and power are produced and negotiated across multiple stakeholders at the community level. It draws attention to the different ways of constructing climate change risks and suggests an array of responses at the community level. It further illustrates how different constructions of risk intersect with agency and power to shape the capacity for response and collective action. What matters are whose constructions of risk, and whose responses, count in decision-making. I argue for greater engagement with the interpretive social sciences in research, practice and policy. The interpretive social sciences offer theories and tools for capturing and problematising the ways of knowing, sense-making and mobilising around risks from climate change. I also highlight the importance of participatory approaches in incorporating the multiplicity of interests at the community level into climate risk management in fair, transparent and culturally appropriate ways.

Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

2013-01-01

Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

Is political risk still an issue for Turkish stock market?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samet Günay

2016-03-01

Full Text Available In this study, we analyze the effects of internal political risk on the Turkish stock market in the period of 2001–2014. Empirical analyses are conducted through various methods to obtain breaks and regimes in the return volatilities of the BIST100 index. According to the results, while the number of breaks has increased in recent years, the risk level of recent periods is significantly lower than the early regimes, and the risk level trend for all regimes show a negative slope. In conclusion, the Turkish stock market responds to political events, but according to our results, not as significantly as in the past.

Scientific risk communication about controversial issues influences public perceptions of scientists' political orientations and credibility.

Science.gov (United States)

Vraga, Emily; Myers, Teresa; Kotcher, John; Beall, Lindsey; Maibach, Ed

2018-02-01

Many scientists communicate with the public about risks associated with scientific issues, but such communication may have unintended consequences for how the public views the political orientations and the credibility of the communicating scientist. We explore this possibility using an experiment with a nationally representative sample of Americans in the fall of 2015. We find that risk communication on controversial scientific issues sometimes influences perceptions of the political orientations and credibility of the communicating scientist when the scientist addresses the risks of issues associated with conservative or liberal groups. This relationship is moderated by participant political ideology, with liberals adjusting their perceptions of the scientists' political beliefs more substantially when the scientist addressed the risks of marijuana use when compared with other issues. Conservatives' political perceptions were less impacted by the issue context of the scientific risk communication but indirectly influenced credibility perceptions. Our results support a contextual model of audience interpretation of scientific risk communication. Scientists should be cognizant that audience members may make inferences about the communicating scientist's political orientations and credibility when they engage in risk communication efforts about controversial issues.

PISA as a Political Tool in Spain: Assessment Instrument, Academic Discourse and Political Reform

Science.gov (United States)

Vega Gil, Leoncio; Hernández Beltrán, Juan Carlos; García Redondo, Eva

2016-01-01

This study examines to what extent there is a sort of "political appropiation" by political parties when they seek to set a discourse about the Spanish PISA outcomes. We have consistently found that programs for assessing the competencies of students, especially PISA, have become tools of rationalization and the legitimization of…

Environmental risk assessment: an Australian perspective. Supervising Scientist Report 102

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beer, T.; Ziolkowski, F.

1995-01-01

Environmental risk assessment can be used as a strategic tool to set environmental priorities and as a tactical tool to set environmental standards. This report is designed to inform Australian environmental managers about the techniques and applications of environmental risk assessment and to familiarize risk analysts with some of the issues that are of concern to environmental managers. The use of risk assessment is illustrated by applying its techniques to five case studies which include: risk from chemicals and from contaminated sites; risk to people and to the natural environment from development, such as uranium mining; climate change; and risk associated with political decision-making. Then, by considering Australian and overseas practice, a generic framework is presented within which environmental risk assessment in Australia can be undertaken, and possible methods of implementation are discussed. refs., 38 figs

The necessity for comparative risk analyses as seen from the political point of view

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steger, U.

1981-01-01

The author describes the current insufficient utilization of risk analyses in the political decision process and investigates if other technologies encounter the same difficulties of acceptance as in the nuclear energy field. This being likely he is trying to find out which contribution comparative risk analyses could make to the process of democratic will-formation so that new technologies are accepted. Firstly the author establishes theses criticizing the recent scientific efforts made in the field of risk analyses and their usability for the political decision process. He then defines the criteria risk analyses have to meet in order to serve as scientific elements for consultative political discussions. (orig./HP) [de

Vulnerability assessments as a political creation: tsunami management in Portugal.

Science.gov (United States)

Pronk, Maartje; Maat, Harro; Crane, Todd A

2017-10-01

Vulnerability assessments are a cornerstone of contemporary disaster research. This paper shows how research procedures and the presentation of results of vulnerability assessments are politically filtered. Using data from a study of tsunami risk assessment in Portugal, the paper demonstrates that approaches, measurement instruments, and research procedures for evaluating vulnerability are influenced by institutional preferences, lines of communication, or lack thereof, between stakeholder groups, and available technical expertise. The institutional setting and the pattern of stakeholder interactions form a filter, resulting in a particular conceptualisation of vulnerability, affecting its operationalisation via existing methods and technologies and its institutional embedding. The Portuguese case reveals a conceptualisation that is aligned with perceptions prevalent in national government bureaucracies and the exclusion of local stakeholders owing to selected methodologies and assessment procedures. The decisions taken by actors involved in these areas affect how vulnerability is assessed, and ultimately which vulnerability reduction policies will be recommended in the appraisal. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

Risks assessment and comparison: Interest and feasibility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coulon, Rene

1989-01-01

Comparative risk assessment and risk management have become a real discipline, requiring a scientific approach. This is due to the increasing need to take account of risks in the decision processes together with other economic, social or political considerations. Although the notion of risk is generally associated with emergency situations, it seems necessary to pay more attention to those situations which are considered as normal situations but could be responsible for a significant part of the observed health effects. In this context, a research programme entitled Programme Grand Delta has been developed at a regional level: its aim is to provide a clear and simple representation of the risks to which the population living in this area is exposed. (author)

A trauma-like model of political extremism: psycho-political fault lines in Israel.

Science.gov (United States)

Laor, Nathaniel; Yanay-Shani, Alma; Wolmer, Leo; Khoury, Oula

2010-10-01

This study examines a trauma-like model of potentially violent political extremism among Jewish Israelis. We study the psychosocial characteristics of political extremists that may lie at the root of sociopolitical instability and assess personal (gender, stressful life events, Holocaust family background, and political activism) and psychological parameters (self- and political transcendence, perceived political threats, in/out-group identification ratio) that may predict readiness to engage in destructive political behavior. We examine the ideological zeal of various political groups, the relationship between the latter and perceived political threats, and the predictors of extreme political activism. Results showed that the extreme political poles displayed high level of ideological and morbid transcendence. Right extremists displayed higher perceived threats to physical existence and national identity. Left extremists scored highest on perceived moral integrity threat. Higher perceived threats to national identity and moral integrity, risk, and self-transcendence statistically explain morbid transcendence. When fear conjures up extremely skewed sociopolitical identifications across political boundaries, morbid transcendence may manifest itself in destructive political activity. © 2010 Association for Research in Nervous and Mental Disease.

Integral risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

1991-01-01

The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

Environmental chemicals - how do we assess the risk (question mark)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somers, E.

Risk assessment is considered as comprising risk identification, risk estimation, and risk evaluation. The methodology of risk estimation is described and the key role of animal experimentation outlined, drawing attention to the inherent problems of extrapolating from animals to humans. The application of risk estimation to regulatory decision-making in Canada is given for chloroform in drinking water; asbestos in dry-wall patching compounds; arsenic emissions in air; nitrogen oxides; mercury in fish; and the food additive saccharin. Risk evaluation represents societal judgement and is ultimately political but a number of techniques can be of value in separating the competing factors, i.e., comparison with natural background or with other risks, balancing risks from alternatives, and risk-benefit analysis. However, the inherent limitations of a completely rational approach to risk assessment must always be recognized. (author)

Assessment of health risks of policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

2014-01-01

The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

Assessment of health risks of policies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

2014-09-15

The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

Countering Political Risk in Colonial India

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lubinski, Christina; Giacomin, Valeria; Schnitzer, Klara

challenges, impacted the perception of racial lines of distinctions and re-casted the category “European business.” While internment was perceived and managed as a political risk, the case also shows that it created unexpected networking opportunities, generating a tight community of German businesspeople......Internment in so-called “enemy countries” was a frequent occurrence in the twentieth century and created significant obstacles for multinational enterprises (MNEs). This article focuses on German MNEs in India and shows how they addressed the formidable challenge of the internment...

Political risks of hydrocarbon deposit development in the Arctic seas of the Russian Federation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bolsunovskaya, Y A; Boyarko, G Yu; Bolsunovskaya, L M

2014-01-01

Nowadays the process of Arctic development has a long-term international cooperation character. Economic and geopolitical interests of both arctic and non-arctic countries meet in the region. Apart from resource development issues, there are problems concerning security, sustainable development and some others issues conditioned by climate and geographical characteristics of the region. Strategic analysis of political risks for the Russian Federation is carried out. The analysis reveals that political risks of hydrocarbon deposits development in the RF arctic seas appear as lack of coordination with arctic countries in solving key regional problems, failure to follow international agreements. Such inconsistency may lead to political risks, which results in strained situation in the region

Risk Factors as the Reasons of Political Instability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Георгий Ильич Марушко

2010-03-01

Full Text Available This article refers to the analysis of political instability and instability risk factors, and the mechanism of direct circuits and feedback between them. The best understanding of each of these factors conducts to comprehension of dynamics of change of stability of the state to external and internal sources of stabilization and destabilization.

The Pros and Cons of Using Joint Ventures as a Tool to Mitigate Political Risks in Developing Countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Violeta Iftinchi

2018-03-01

Full Text Available As part of their political risk management strategy, multinational corporations (MNCs can use joint ventures as a tool to reduce their exposure to political risks in international activities. The aim of this article is to present the main benefits for MNCs in using joint ventures with a local partner to mitigate political risks in developing countries and to put forward three risks that MNCs have to consider when choosing the local partner (the risk of opportunistic expropriation, the risk associated with transferring of intellectual property rights and reputational risk.

POLITICAL AND EDUCATIONAL LOGISTICS IN STRUCTURAL ASSESSMENT OF VARIOUS STATES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Evgeny Aleksandrovich Zhitnov

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The aim. The theoretical and methodological foundations of political and educational logistics and also qualimetric models that characterize the role of the educational system in the structural assessment of states will be created. The method or methodology of the paper. The research is based on educational and economic theories and concepts; this study involves a wide range of cross-disciplinary approaches including the tools of pedagogy, political science, economics, economic sociology etc. The results. The results of the work are about making an attempt to create an integral model of assessing the state development level based on a wide range of various informative data, including different indicators. The field of application. The results of the research can be used in pedagogical, economic, political practices where it is required to assess the level of state development both in a separate and integral aspects.

77 FR 45329 - Availability of Microbial Risk Assessment Guideline: Pathogenic Microorganisms With Focus on Food...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-07-31

... impact the risk assessment and facilitates reproducible risk evaluation. Using the guidelines, agencies.... Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation...

Risk assessment of transitional economies by multivariate and multicriteria approaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomić-Plazibat Neli

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This article assesses country-risk of sixteen Central, Baltic and South-East European transition countries, for 2005 and 2007, using multivariate cluster analysis. It was aided by the appropriate ANOVA (analysis of variance testing and the multicriteria PROMETHEE method. The combination of methods makes for more accurate and efficient country-risk assessment. Country risk classifications and ratings involve evaluating the performance of countries while considering their economic and socio-political characteristics. The purpose of the article is to classify, and then find the comparative position of each individual country in the group of analyzed countries, in order to find out to which extent development of market economy and democratic society has been achieved.

An assessment of potential hydro-political tensions in transboundary river basins using environmental, political, and economic indicators

Science.gov (United States)

De Stefano, Lucia; Petersen-Perlman, Jacob; Sproles, Eric; Eynard, James; Wolf, Aaron T.

2015-04-01

Globally 286 river basins extend across international borders, covering over 61.9 million km2 of the earth's surface and hosting a total of approximately 2.7 billion people. In these basins, transboundary water resources support an interdependent web of environmental, political, and economic systems that can enhance or destabilize a region. We present an integrated global-scale assessment of transboundary watersheds to identify regions more likely to experience hydro-political tensions over the next decade and beyond based upon environmental, political, and economic indicators. We combine NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) measurements of changes in terrestrial water storage with metrics of projected climate change impacts on water variability, the institutional capacity of countries to manage shared water resources, the development of new water infrastructure, per capita gross national income, domestic and international armed conflicts, and recent history of disputes over transboundary waters. The construction of new water-related infrastructure is on-going or planned in many basins worldwide. New water infrastructure is foreseen also in areas where instruments of international cooperation are still absent or limited in scope, e.g. in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central America, the northern part of the South American continent, and the southern Balkans as well as in different parts of Africa. Moreover, in Central and Eastern Africa, the Middle East, and Central, South and South-East Asia there is a concomitance of several political, environmental and socioeconomic factors that could exacerbate hydropolitical tensions. Our analysis integrates political, economic and environmental metrics and is part of the United Nation's Transboundary Waters Assessment Programme to provide the first global-scale assessment of its type.

International financial linkages of Latin American banks: the effects of political risk and deposit dollarisation

OpenAIRE

Ramon-Ballester, Francisco; Wezel, Torsten

2007-01-01

This paper empirically investigates the extent to which the financial linkages of Latin American banks with the exterior are influenced by political risk and deposit dollarisation. We find that the sum of banks’ foreign assets and liabilities is a function of risk-return considerations and excess domestic credit demand. An increase in political risk is shown to be associated with a build-up of foreign positions by the banking sector, but this adverse effect on the banking system is mitigated ...

Assessment of Political Vulnerabilities on Security of Energy Supply in the Baltic States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Česnakas Giedrius

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The article argues that despite the evident link between political environment and security of energy supply, political elements are not sufficiently represented in contemporary scientific literature, namely in indexes that are designed for the assessment of security of energy supply. In an attempt to fill this gap, the article presents an innovative methodology for quantitative assessment of the political vulnerabilities on security of energy supply and applies it to the analysis of the Baltic States.

[Debating disease: the risk factor concept in political economic and scientific consideration, 1968 to 1986].

Science.gov (United States)

Madarász, Jeannette

2009-01-01

The risk factor concept was developed in American epidemiological studies ongoing since the 1940s researching the causes of chronic cardiovascular diseases. By looking at the depiction of this model in a variety of media in Germany between 1968 and 1986 we can put its close interaction with contemporary socio-political debates under scrutiny. Thereby, a strong connection between the various agents' political and economic interests on the one hand and the incorporation of the risk factor concept into their specific agendas will become apparent. The risk factor concept was not fundamentally changed in the process but it was adapted to contemporary conditions and political constellations. Thereby, so it will be argued, the medical uses of the model, especially regarding the prevention of chronic cardiovascular disease, were forced into the background of public debates.

Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

2016-01-01

The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

The Role of Cumulative Risk Assessment in Decisions about Environmental Justice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ken Sexton

2010-11-01

Full Text Available There is strong presumptive evidence that people living in poverty and certain racial and ethnic groups bear a disproportionate burden of environmental health risk. Many have argued that conducting formal assessments of the health risk experienced by affected communities is both unnecessary and counterproductive—that instead of analyzing the situation our efforts should be devoted to fixing obvious problems and rectifying observable wrongs. We contend that formal assessment of cumulative health risks from combined effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors is a valuable tool to aid decision makers in choosing risk management options that are effective, efficient, and equitable. If used properly, cumulative risk assessment need not impair decision makers’ discretion, nor should it be used as an excuse for doing nothing in the face of evident harm. Good policy decisions require more than good intentions; they necessitate analysis of risk-related information along with careful consideration of economic issues, ethical and moral principles, legal precedents, political realities, cultural beliefs, societal values, and bureaucratic impediments. Cumulative risk assessment can provide a systematic and impartial means for informing policy decisions about environmental justice.

Assessing gas transit risks: Russia vs. the EU

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Le Coq, Chloé; Paltseva, Elena

2012-01-01

This paper proposes a Transit Risk Index (TRI) designed to assess the riskiness of pipeline gas imports and to study the effect of introducing new gas routes. TRI controls for gas dependency, transit route diversification, political risks of transit, pipeline rupture probability, and the balance of power between supplying and consuming countries along the transit route. Evaluating TRI for the EU-Russia gas trade, we show that the introduction of the Nord Stream pipeline would further widen already large disparities in gas risk exposure across the EU Member States. The gas risk exposure of the Member States served by Nord Stream would decline. In contrast, EU countries not connected to Nord Stream, but sharing other Russian gas transit routes with the Nord Stream countries, would face greater gas risk exposure. We discuss the implications of our analysis for the design of the common energy policy in the EU.

Molecular radiobiology and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Georgieva, R.

2009-01-01

Full text: Attitudes towards the radiation protection standards on in Europe and the world largely depends on scientific knowledge, periodically published by the United Nations Scientific Committee (UNSCEAR) and the recommendations of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP), which also comply with the research. The new scientific evidence by conducting an additional research is a crucial element in the process of protection of people, workers and patients in medicine from the adverse health effects. Although these standards are clear and easy to apply, there is serious doubt from a scientific perspective about the level of health risk at low doses, which keep up a fierce debate, both eight scientific and political society. The answer to this question requires the integrated efforts of many scientific disciplines. Increasingly rapid advances in biological and medical knowledge provide the necessary conditions for achieving this aim. This lecture tries to shed light on the current state of knowledge, the main unresolved problems in science in the context of radiation protection and risk assessment, and on those lines of research that have the greatest potential to address the issues. They mainly concern issues of doses and biological effects of different types of ionisation radiation, biological effects in cells/tissues which initiate health effects at low doses, individual variability and direct health risk assessment by epidemiological studies of groups exposed to lower doses irradiation

Economic assessment of landslide risks in the Swabian Alb, Germany ‒ research framework and first results of homeowners' and experts' surveys

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Blöchl

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Landslide risks are frequently underestimated by political and economic actors as well as by the local population. The InterRisk Assess research project is working to develop a systematic approach to the analysis and evaluation of economic landslide risks at a local and regional scale. Its major aims are to determine the extent of potential damage and economic losses caused by landslides, to analyze individual and collective patterns of risk assessment and to develop recommendations for pro-active risk management. The research methodology includes GIS-based risk analyses and interviews with relevant actors in politics, administration and planning, private households and land owners. The research findings will facilitate a better-informed, efficient and sustainable use of natural resources and natural risks. The research project also aims to contribute to methodological progress in risk research.

Economic, Socio-Political and Environmental Risks of Road Development in the Tropics.

Science.gov (United States)

Alamgir, Mohammed; Campbell, Mason J; Sloan, Sean; Goosem, Miriam; Clements, Gopalasamy Reuben; Mahmoud, Mahmoud I; Laurance, William F

2017-10-23

It is projected that 25 million km of new paved roads will be developed globally by 2050 - enough to encircle the planet more than 600 times. Roughly 90% of new roads will be built in developing nations, frequently in tropical and subtropical regions with high biodiversity and environmental values. Many developing nations are borrowing from international lenders or negotiating access to their natural resources in order to expand their transportation infrastructure. Given the unprecedented pace and extent of these initiatives, it is vital to thoroughly assess the potential consequences of large-scale road and highway projects. In appropriate contexts and locales, new roads can promote sizeable economic and social benefits. If poorly planned or implemented, however, new roads can provoke serious cost overruns, corruption and environmental impacts, while generating sparse economic benefits and intense social and political conflict. Using examples from developing nations, we identify risks that can hinder road projects in wet and dry tropical environments. Such risks, we assert, are often inadequately considered by project proponents, evaluators and the general public, creating a systematic tendency to overestimate project benefits while understating project risks. A more precautionary approach is needed to reduce risks while maximizing benefits of new road projects in the tropics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing Political Dynamics in Contemporary Malaysia: Implications for Democratic Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Surain Subramaniam

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This article examines political dynamics in Malaysia and assesses the prospects for change in the direction of greater political liberalization. It focuses on the 12th General Election of 2008 and its implications for opportunities and challenges for liberal democratic change in Malaysia. It discusses the role of the internet-based new media in shaping an emerging public sphere, and some factors affecting the changing role of non-Malay voters in the political process. This article argues that democratization in Malaysia is already occurring, albeit at a gradual pace; it is being pushed by the new political forces of civil society actors, newly empowered opposition parties, and the internet-based media. The boundaries of this emerging democratic space is simultaneously being shaped and contested by the political competition between status-quo and reformist forces in this society. Some institutional changes have expanded the parameters of democratic space, although the entrenched dominant institutions of the ruling regime continue to wield sufficient amounts of institutional capacity to subvert any consolidation of these democratic changes for now.

An industry approach to the risk assessment of pesticides

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thomas, Barry [Schering Agrochemicals Ltd., Chesterford Park Research Station, Saffron Walder, Essex (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The regulatory control of pesticides has developed over the last 40 years during which time major changes have occurred, not only in the scientific basis of risk assessment but also in the socio-political perception of pesticides and of the agricultural and chemical industries. Traditionally, and logically, the registration of pesticides has been based on a pre-marketing risk-benefit assessment by but changes have occurred in the relative importance associated with the two elements of this assessment. These potential risks have assumed a greater importance as has the acceptability of such risks. By contrast the benefits of using plant protection products to increase agricultural productivity and production has assumed less importance in the light of perceived agricultural surpluses, at least in the Developed Countries. This paper will consider current and future regulatory requirements for pesticides and identify some of the key areas which are of importance to the Plant Protection Industry. It will also discuss initiatives, by both the Industry and Government, aimed at ensuring the safe use of plant protection products, how such initiatives are likely to impact on new product developments and the consequential effects on global food supplies.

An industry approach to the risk assessment of pesticides

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, Barry

1992-01-01

The regulatory control of pesticides has developed over the last 40 years during which time major changes have occurred, not only in the scientific basis of risk assessment but also in the socio-political perception of pesticides and of the agricultural and chemical industries. Traditionally, and logically, the registration of pesticides has been based on a pre-marketing risk-benefit assessment by but changes have occurred in the relative importance associated with the two elements of this assessment. These potential risks have assumed a greater importance as has the acceptability of such risks. By contrast the benefits of using plant protection products to increase agricultural productivity and production has assumed less importance in the light of perceived agricultural surpluses, at least in the Developed Countries. This paper will consider current and future regulatory requirements for pesticides and identify some of the key areas which are of importance to the Plant Protection Industry. It will also discuss initiatives, by both the Industry and Government, aimed at ensuring the safe use of plant protection products, how such initiatives are likely to impact on new product developments and the consequential effects on global food supplies

Risk assessment in the European Community (EC); perspective as partial contributor in decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vinck, W.

1981-01-01

This paper is oriented towards the use of nuclear power for electricity production. The subject is discussed under the following headings: preamble; survey of practice and trends in reliability analyses and risk assessment:general (the risk concept; the types of reliability and risk analysis; the present state and trends of a probabilistic approach in safety analysis); risk analysis, partial contributor in the acceptability-problem (the political scene; technological society; cost effectiveness of risk reduction, cost-risk-benefit balancing; risk perception and acceptance; comparison of energy systems); need for and limitations of quantified safety objectives. (U.K.)

Risk assessment of hazardous waste transport - perspectives of GIS application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lazar, R.E.; Dumitrescu, M.; Stefanescu, I.

2001-01-01

Due to the increasing public awareness of the potential risks associated with waste transport, the environmental impact assessment of this activity has become an issue of major importance. This paper presents a project proposal, which can establish a national action plan for waste transport evaluation. Such a programme is sustained by the necessity to obtain an adequate method for the rapid and efficient estimation of individual and social risks due to the transport of hazardous substances in Romania. The main objective is to develop regional strategies for risk assessment in comprising: establishing the areas that must be investigated and their particular characteristics; identifying the transport activities in the areas; determining hazards; establishing the analysis criteria and prioritizing the study areas; evaluating continuous emissions; studying major accidents; studying population health; classifying the risks; establishing regional strategies; implementing political and regulatory measures. The project expectation is to provide a decision tool for risk managers and authorities in order to control or limit transportation and the storage of hazardous substances.(author)

Turning risk assessment and adaptation policy priorities into meaningful interventions and governance processes

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Kathryn; DiMauro, Manuela; Johns, Daniel; Holmes, Gemma; Thompson, David; Russell, Andrew; Style, David

2018-06-01

The UK is one of the first countries in the world to have set up a statutory system of national climate risk assessments followed by a national adaptation programme. Having this legal framework has been essential for enabling adaptation at the government level in a challenging political environment. However, using this framework to create an improvement in resilience to climate change across the country requires more than publishing a set of documents; it requires careful thought about what interventions work, how they can be enabled and what level of risk acceptability individuals, organizations and the country should be aiming for. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

INTEGRATED APPROACHES TO GEOPOLITICS AND RISKS IN INTERNATIONAL POLITICS

OpenAIRE

Dr. Sheriff Ghali Ibrahim; Dr. Iro Uke

2016-01-01

The paper examines the nature and impact of geopolitics on the global oil and gas business. It shows the relationship between politics and what nature provides such as oil and gas and the interplay between and among nations, people and institutions within the framework of geopolitics. The paper adopts the secondary methodology in order to investigate the risks (impact) attached to geopolitics. Findings show that, the concept of geopolitics is so versatile and multidimensional, enveloped by a ...

Management and policy: political strategies and instruments of the risk types

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renn, O.; Klinke, A.

1998-01-01

The main objective of the risk classification is to gain an effective and feasible policy tool for the evaluation and the management or risks. The characterisation provides a platform for designing specific political strategies and measures for each risk type. The strategies pursue the goal to transform unacceptable into acceptable risks, i.e. the risks should not be reduced to zero, but they should be reduced to a level that routine risk management becomes sufficient to ensure safety and integrity. All strategies and respective measures are arranged according to priorities. In the normal case more than one strategy and more than one measure are naturally appropriate and necessary. If resources are limited, strategies and measures should be taken in line with the priority list. The following part lists the prior strategies and the prior measures recommended for each risk type. (authors)

Pharmaceutical supply chain risk assessment in Iran using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and simple additive weighting (SAW) methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaberidoost, Mona; Olfat, Laya; Hosseini, Alireza; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas; Abdollahi, Mohammad; Alaeddini, Mahdi; Dinarvand, Rassoul

2015-01-01

Pharmaceutical supply chain is a significant component of the health system in supplying medicines, particularly in countries where main drugs are provided by local pharmaceutical companies. No previous studies exist assessing risks and disruptions in pharmaceutical companies while assessing the pharmaceutical supply chain. Any risks affecting the pharmaceutical companies could disrupt supply medicines and health system efficiency. The goal of this study was the risk assessment in pharmaceutical industry in Iran considering process's priority, hazard and probability of risks. The study was carried out in 4 phases; risk identification through literature review, risk identification in Iranian pharmaceutical companies through interview with experts, risk analysis through a questionnaire and consultation with experts using group analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and rating scale (RS) and risk evaluation of simple additive weighting (SAW) method. In total, 86 main risks were identified in the pharmaceutical supply chain with perspective of pharmaceutical companies classified in 11 classes. The majority of risks described in this study were related to the financial and economic category. Also financial management was found to be the most important factor for consideration. Although pharmaceutical industry and supply chain were affected by current political conditions in Iran during the study time, but half of total risks in the pharmaceutical supply chain were found to be internal risks which could be fixed by companies, internally. Likewise, political status and related risks forced companies to focus more on financial and supply management resulting in less attention to quality management.

Political affiliation affects adaptation to climate risks : Evidence from New York City

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Botzen, W. J Wouter; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Kunreuther, Howard; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

2016-01-01

Research reveals that liberals and conservatives in the United States diverge about their beliefs regarding climate change. We show empirically that political affiliation also matters with respect to climate related risks such as flooding from hurricanes. Our study is based on a survey conducted 6

Assessing the value of risk: Perspectives on the role of risk information in decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Egan, M.; Smith, Graham; Maul, P.

1999-01-01

The authors of this paper profess no formal ethical or philosophical training from which to develop their position on Values in Decisions on Risk. However, as scientists with practical experience in carrying out a range of quantitative studies, we consider that we have some understanding of the strengths and weaknesses inherent in environmental risk assessment. Moreover, in attempting to use the results of such assessments, we have observed some of the ways in which quantitative risk information is used and abused. In this paper, therefore, we offer a practitioner's perspective that underlines the essential role of risk as a tool to inform and guide decisions, while at the same time emphasising the need for its proportionate use in a complex arena. We draw on experience that includes assessments for radioactive waste management and disposal, but also incorporates a range of assignments where assessment of the scale of potential environmental liabilities was a critical factor in decision making. We do not pretend to offer a resolution to the challenges laid before this Symposium, but seek to explore common themes and lessons learned regarding the role of risk information in goal-setting, performance monitoring and the overall decision process. Policy makers and regulators must act responsibly to protect confidence, not just the health of people and the environment. In doing this, to ignore risk information as a key component of strategic thinking is equally as disproportionate as making it the sole basis for decision making. There is a clear need to explain better the basis of, and motives behind, decisions - not only in terms of transparency in risk assessment but also to distinguish between the scientific and the socio-political component of the argument

Assessing the value of risk: Perspectives on the role of risk information in decision making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Egan, M.; Smith, Graham; Maul, P. [QuantiSci Limited, Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom)

1999-12-01

The authors of this paper profess no formal ethical or philosophical training from which to develop their position on Values in Decisions on Risk. However, as scientists with practical experience in carrying out a range of quantitative studies, we consider that we have some understanding of the strengths and weaknesses inherent in environmental risk assessment. Moreover, in attempting to use the results of such assessments, we have observed some of the ways in which quantitative risk information is used and abused. In this paper, therefore, we offer a practitioner's perspective that underlines the essential role of risk as a tool to inform and guide decisions, while at the same time emphasising the need for its proportionate use in a complex arena. We draw on experience that includes assessments for radioactive waste management and disposal, but also incorporates a range of assignments where assessment of the scale of potential environmental liabilities was a critical factor in decision making. We do not pretend to offer a resolution to the challenges laid before this Symposium, but seek to explore common themes and lessons learned regarding the role of risk information in goal-setting, performance monitoring and the overall decision process. Policy makers and regulators must act responsibly to protect confidence, not just the health of people and the environment. In doing this, to ignore risk information as a key component of strategic thinking is equally as disproportionate as making it the sole basis for decision making. There is a clear need to explain better the basis of, and motives behind, decisions - not only in terms of transparency in risk assessment but also to distinguish between the scientific and the socio-political component of the argument.

The risk to be reasonably accepted - an unreasonable demand on science, society, politics?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weber, B.

1986-01-01

Political ethics is a concept that is increasingly emerging in current public debate about the risks of technolgy. A risk that cannot be limited in time or in space, the risk we have got used to call the 'risk to be reasonably accepted', seems unacceptable. Energy generation and supply may not be given higher priority than life and health. It would be high time to prove courage and efficiency by opposing the 'nuclear laws of inertia', stopping nuclear technoloy, and admitting one's own feeling of insecurity. (DG) [de

Environmental carcinogenic agents and cancer prevention. Risk assessment and management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsugane, Shoichiro

2013-01-01

Many agents in our environment have been established as being carcinogenic, and in most cases, the carcinogenic properties of these agents were identified because of high-dose occupational or accidental exposure. Risk characterization, taking into account the dose-response relationship, and exposure assessment are essential for risk assessment and subsequent cancer prevention. Based on scientific risk assessment, risk management should be conducted practically by considering the economic, social, political, and other technical issues and by balancing the risks and benefits. Asbestos and environmental tobacco smoke are typical examples of established carcinogenic agents in the general environment, contributing to low-dose exposure. Further epidemiological studies are required to investigate the carcinogenicity of low-dose exposure to known carcinogenic agents such as arsenic and cadmium through dietary intake, radiation via medical and natural exposure, and air pollution due to diesel exhaust. In contrast, occupational chemical exposure to 1,2-dichloropropane and/or dichloromethane, whose carcinogenicity had not been established, was suggested to cause cholangiocarcinoma among workers involved in offset color proof-printing only after a rare situation of high-dose exposure was unveiled. Continuous monitoring of unusual cancer occurrences in target populations such as workers in occupational and regional settings as well as exposure reduction to suspected carcinogenic agents to levels as low as reasonably achievable is essential for reducing the risk of cancer due to environmental carcinogens. (author)

Theory and methodology of social, political and economic processes risks determining in different countries of the world

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yashina Nadezhda, I.

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The study deals with the problems of the theory and methodology of social, political and economic processes risks in different countries with relative indicators of the socio-economic development level, as well as the size and condition of the public debt. Developed by the authors the methodology of determining the risks of social, political and economic processes of public policy around the world revealed close relationship between socio-economic situation of the countries and their public debt. Within the framework of this methodology two groups of factors characterizing the socio-political and economic processes in the country are being developed. After that each exponent and indicator are being processed, using expert procedures. Maximum statutory values for tentatively referenced countries with effective and ineffective government policies are identified. Then standardization (specification and definition of integral (generalized indexes of socio-political and economic processes in the country are taking place. After that the ranking of countries by aggregated standardized ratio is arranged, taking into account the significance of the developed indicators. The final phase of implementation methodology is identifying risks of social, political and economic processes of public policy around the world. This is the ranking of countries by ratio of stability in public policy (stability of economic and socio-political processes in the country. As the result of implementation methodology the following output was received: what really makes a difference is not the amount of the country's debt, but how effectively it manages this debt, whether it has a goal to improve social and economic indicators. Practical testing methodology has proven that studied indicators fully characterize the development of the countries, their political, social and economic situation on the world stage.

Affordances and Constraints of Using the Socio-Political Debate for Authentic Summative Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Anker-Hansen, Jens; Andrée, Maria

2015-01-01

This article reports from an empirical study on the affordances and constraints for using staged socio-political debates for authentic summative assessment of scientific literacy. The article focuses on conditions for student participation and what purposes emerge in student interaction in a socio-political debate. As part of the research project,…

The Political Opportunity of the Outsider

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lubinski, Christina

between developed national economies rose in the wake of World War I, as anti-­‐colonial and communist movements gained ground, and international monetary instability increased. Yet, far from retrenching from the global economy, German MNEs capitalized on the growing political risks by developing......This paper examines the political strategies of two German firms—Siemens and I.G. Farben—in interwar India as a way to consider how multinational enterprises (MNEs) deal with political risk. The interwar period was characterized by rising political risks throughout the global economy, as conflicts...

An approach to quantitative assessment of relative proliferation risks from nuclear fuel cycles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silvennoinen, P.; Vira, J.

1981-01-01

Feasibility of quantitative assessments of the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation is discussed in this paper. The proliferation risk is defined as a combined utility of the different fuel cycle processes or materials for the proscribed acquisition of a nuclear weapon. Based on a set of selected weighted criteria, the process utilities are calculated employing utility functions or fuzzy expectation values. The methods are compared to each other. The scheme appears feasible in relative comparisons while certain leeway must still be retained for political judgement. (author)

Risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kinchin, G.H.

1983-01-01

After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

The impact of political news on German students' assessments of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wilhelm Kempf

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Employing the design of a prior experiment by Peleg & Alimi (2005, the present study examines how differently framed texts about the Knesset's approval of the Israeli-Palestinian 'Road Map' influence German students' assessments of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The results of the study confirmed our theoretical hypothesis that information presented in political news reports influences more than just recipients' assessments of the specifically mentioned issues. In addition, it also affects their assessments of issues related only via the structures of the mental models into which they integrate information. Moreover, the influence of political news is not uniform, but rather varies with differences in the mental models recipients have previously formed. These a priori mental models, therefore, can be more powerful predictors of media effects than variables such as recipients' political orientations, their personal views or the relevance they attribute to a conflict.

Risk Assessment Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

Comparing Political Journalism

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Comparing Political Journalism is a systematic, in-depth study of the factors that shape and influence political news coverage today. Using techniques drawn from the growing field of comparative political communication, an international group of contributors analyse political news content drawn...... Comparing Political Journalism offers an unparalleled scope in assessing the implications for the ongoing transformation of Western media systems, and addresses core concepts of central importance to students and scholars of political communication world-wide....... from newspapers, television news, and news websites from 16 countries, to assess what kinds of media systems are most conducive to producing quality journalism. Underpinned by key conceptual themes, such as the role that the media are expected to play in democracies and quality of coverage...

Political Risk and Foreign Exchange Rates: an Efficient-Market Approach

OpenAIRE

Jean-Claude Cosset; Bruno Doutriaux de la Rianderie

1985-01-01

This paper examines the reaction of the foreign exchange market to the announcement of changes in the business environment of a country. Our results suggest that sampled political risk news conveys important information about a country's investment climate and causes its currency's exchange rate to vary. It appears, however, that the reaction of the foreign exchange market is more dramatic for unfavorable events than for favorable events. The evidence presented is also consisted with the hypo...

Introduction to risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raina, V.M.

2002-01-01

This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

How political affiliation affects adaptation to climate risks: Evidence from New York City

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Botzen, W.J.W.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Kunreuther, H; De Moel, H; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

2016-01-01

Research reveals that liberals and conservatives in the United States diverge about their beliefs regarding climate change. We show empirically that political affiliation also matters with respect to climate related risks such as flooding from hurricanes. Our study is based on a survey conducted 6

Assessment that Matters: Integrating the "Chore" of Department-Based Assessment with Real Improvements in Political Science Education

Science.gov (United States)

Deardorff, Michelle D.; Folger, Paul J.

2005-01-01

Assessment requirements often raise great concerns among departments and faculty: fear of loss of autonomy, distraction from primary departmental goals, and the creation of alien and artificial external standards. This article demonstrates how one political science department directly responded to their own unique circumstances in assessing their…

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

2012-10-16

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

Evaluating the effectiveness of impact assessment instruments: Theorising the nature and implications of their political constitution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cashmore, Matthew; Richardson, Tim; Hilding-Ryedvik, Tuija; Emmelin, Lars

2010-01-01

The central role of impact assessment instruments globally in policy integration initiatives has been cemented in recent years. Associated with this trend, but also reflecting political emphasis on greater accountability in certain policy sectors and a renewed focus on economic competitiveness in Western countries, demand has increased for evidence that these instruments are effective (however defined). Resurgent interest in evaluation has not, however, been accompanied by the conceptual developments required to redress longstanding theoretical problems associated with such activities. In order to sharpen effectiveness evaluation theory for impact assessment instruments this article critically examines the neglected issue of their political constitution. Analytical examples are used to concretely explore the nature and significance of the politicisation of impact assessment. It is argued that raising awareness about the political character of impact assessment instruments, in itself, is a vital step in advancing effectiveness evaluation theory. Broader theoretical lessons on the framing of evaluation research are also drawn from the political analysis. We conclude that, at least within the contemporary research context, learning derived from analysing the meaning and implications of plural interpretations of effectiveness represents the most constructive strategy for advancing impact assessment and policy integration theory.

A public health framework to translate risk factors related to political violence and war into multi-level preventive interventions.

Science.gov (United States)

De Jong, Joop T V M

2010-01-01

Political violence, armed conflicts and human rights violations are produced by a variety of political, economic and socio-cultural factors. Conflicts can be analyzed with an interdisciplinary approach to obtain a global understanding of the relative contribution of risk and protective factors. A public health framework was designed to address these risk factors and protective factors. The framework resulted in a matrix that combined primary, secondary and tertiary interventions with their implementation on the levels of the society-at-large, the community, and the family and individual. Subsequently, the risk and protective factors were translated into multi-sectoral, multi-modal and multi-level preventive interventions involving the economy, governance, diplomacy, the military, human rights, agriculture, health, and education. Then the interventions were slotted in their appropriate place in the matrix. The interventions can be applied in an integrative form by international agencies, governments and non-governmental organizations, and molded to meet the requirements of the historic, political-economic and socio-cultural context. The framework maps the complementary fit among the different actors while engaging themselves in preventive, rehabilitative and reconstructive interventions. The framework shows how the economic, diplomatic, political, criminal justice, human rights, military, health and rural development sectors can collaborate to promote peace or prevent the aggravation or continuation of violence. A deeper understanding of the association between risk and protective factors and the developmental pathways of generic, country-specific and culture-specific factors leading to political violence is needed.

Operational risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

McKim, Vicky L

2017-06-01

In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

Climate Change, State Stability, and Political Risk in Africa

Science.gov (United States)

2016-09-30

www.acq.osd.mil/dsb/reports/ADA552760.pdf. iii P.P. Hearn Jr. et al., “Global GIS Database; Digital Atlas of Africa,” USGS Numbered Series, Data...Series, (2001), http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/ds62B. iv U.S. Geological Survey World Conventional Resources Assessment Team, “USGS Digital ...Retrenchment and the Exercise of Citizenship in Africa,” Comparative Political Studies 44, 9 (2011): 1238-1266; Jennifer N. Brass, “Blurring Boundaries

New EU legislation for risk assessment of GM food: no scientific justification for mandatory animal feeding trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuiper, Harry A; Kok, Esther J; Davies, Howard V

2013-09-01

This commentary focuses on the potential added value of and need for (sub)-chronic testing of whole genetically modified (GM) foods in rodents to assess their safety. Such routine testing should not be required since, due to apparent weaknesses in the approach, it does not add to current risk assessment of GM foods. Moreover, the demand for routine testing using animals is in conflict with the European Union (EU) Commission's efforts to reduce animal experimentation. Regulating agencies in the EU are invited to respect the sound scientific principles applied to the risk assessment of foods derived from GM plants and not to interfere in the risk assessment by introducing extra requirements based on pseudo-scientific or political considerations. © 2013 Society for Experimental Biology, Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A public health framework to translate risk factors related to political violence and war into multi-level preventive interventions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Jong, J.T.V.M.

2010-01-01

Political violence, armed conflicts and human rights violations are produced by a variety of political, economic and socio-cultural factors. Conflicts can be analyzed with an interdisciplinary approach to obtain a global understanding of the relative contribution of risk and protective factors. A

How safely do we live. Risk assessment and risk management in our society. Wie sicher leben wir. Risikobeurteilung und -bewaeltigung in unserer Gesellschaft

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fritzsche, A F

1986-01-01

This volume deals in detail with the multidisciplinary subject of the perception and assessment of hazards both according to objective and subjective points of view, and relates to recent studies performed particularly in the USA. The author shows up possible methods and means to arrive at a handling of hazards in keeping with socio-political requirements, and intends to draw the general public's attention to this topic. The individual chapters are dedicated to the term of risk, the acceptable risk, the perception of hazards, the special case of nuclear energy, the psychological backgrounds, the qualification of hazards, hazard assessment and risk management. Abstracts of these chapters were entered separately into the data base. The author thinks the dialogue with the citizen to be the only way to arrive at a better understanding of ''risk'' in the general public. (HSCH).

Political innovations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Eva

2017-01-01

are mainly interested in assessing and promoting innovations in public service delivery, but have paid little or no attention to the need for innovations in polity, politics and policy. This article develops a research agenda for studying innovations in political institutions, in the political process...... and in policy outputs. It proposes a number of research themes related to political innovations that call for scholarly attention, and identifies push and pull factors influencing the likelihood that these themes will be addressed in future research....

Hepatitis Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

GM Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Sparrow, Penny A. C.

GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

Assessing the Curricula of Political Sciences’ Programs at the Palestinian Universities in Accordance with the Academic Standards of Political Sciences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alaa H. A . Aburedwan

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The study aimed at answering the following key question: Are academic standards of political sciences fulfilled in the curricula of political science programs at the Palestinian universities? Accordingly, the study included a theoretical section that explained the basic concepts of quality in education, and some international experiences adopted for quality assurance of political sciences programs. Then the study analyzed, according to the standard criteria, the curricula of four departments that grant a bachelor's degree in political sciences, based on information published on the departments’ sites on the internet, and according to the academic guidebook of each department. The study concluded that the mission and objectives of three departments are clear, while the findings of the analysis showed that there is mismatch of requirements in the Palestinian curricula with academic standards. Most programs are rich with major materials, but need a little adjustment to conform to the standards. The findings also showed a number of negative points in study plans, which do not contain enough credit hours for scientific research, computer applications, and field training, while they have extra credit hours for university requirements. The study made several recommendations to address the problems of the curricula, including: Inviting departments to form committees to ensure quality, to modify the curricula, and develop it in accordance with international standards. Keywords: Academic program, Academic standards, Curricula assessment, Political sciences.

Offshore risk assessment

CERN Document Server

Vinnem, Jan-Erik

2014-01-01

  Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

Safety Politics and Risk Perceptions in Malaysian Industry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wangel, Arne

Abstract The book deals with the analysis of work hazards and safety in industrial enterprises in Peninsular Malaysia, Southeast Asia. It traces the development of this theme of conflict within the context constituted by state, labour market and labour-management relations in Malaysia. The book...... and safety, when compared with the influence of local conditions? What kind of process develops, as local theory about work hazards are formed among workers. And, which are the opportunities for changing working environment institutions in Malaysia? The first part of the book discusses traditions...... by the state from Burawoy, Beronius, and Adesina about production politics and social relations in the labour process provides an integrated perspective on individual risk perceptions, safety practices in enterprises, and government regulation. The empirical data were collected during the period 1989...

The Politics of Testing/Assessment (Or a Chameleon in the Classroom).

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Anne E.

A number of political issues are involved in educational testing and the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP). Many school officials are disturbed by the number of tests administered and the information and instructional time lost; they are reluctant to accede to further voluntary testing programs which might duplicate current…

European market integration for gas? Volume flexibility and political risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asche, Frank; Tveteras, Ragnar; Osmundsen, Petter

2002-01-01

Long-term take-or-pay contracts regulating gas exports to the Continent are described and analyzed. We thereafter examine whether the German gas market is integrated. Time series of Norwegian, Dutch and Russian gas export prices to Germany in 1990-1998 are examined. Cointegration tests show that that the different border prices for gas to Germany move proportionally over time, indicating an integrated gas market. We find differences in mean prices, with Russian gas being sold at prices systematically lower than Dutch and Norwegian gas. Among the explanatory factors for price discrepancies are differences in volume flexibility (swing) and perceived political risk

Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, P.B.

1980-01-01

The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

Dutch Risk Assessment tools

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Venema, A.

2015-01-01

The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

State of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conrad, J.

1978-03-01

In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

2010-10-01

Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

A new energy paradigm for Turkey: A political risk-inclusive cost analysis for sustainable energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oksay, Serhan; Iseri, Emre

2011-01-01

Implementing sustainable development policies in order to achieve economic and social development while maintaining adequate environmental protection to minimize the damage inflicted by the constantly increasing world population must be a major priority in the 21st century. While the emerging global debate on potential cost-effective responses has produced potential solutions such as cap and trade systems and/or carbon taxes as part of evolving sustainable energy/environmental policies, this kind of intellectual inquiry does not seem to be an issue among Turkish policy-making elites. This is mainly due to their miscalculation that pursuing sustainable energy policies is much more expensive in comparison to the utilization of fossil fuels such as natural gas. Nevertheless, the pegged prices of an energy sector dominated by natural gas are illusive, as both the political risks and environmental damage have not been incorporated into the current cost calculations. This paper evaluates energy policies through a lens of risk management and takes an alternative approach to calculating energy costs by factoring in political risks. This formulation reveals that the cost of traditional fossil-based energy is in fact more expensive than renewable energy. In addition to being environmentally friendly, the paradigm shift towards renewable energy policies would provide Turkey with a significant opportunity to stimulate its economy by being one of the first countries to develop green technologies and as a result this burgeoning sector would prompt job creation as well; mainly due to the externalities. - Research highlights: → This paper evaluates Turkish energy policies through risk management scope and takes an alternative approach on calculating electricity costs by factoring in political risks. → The cost of traditional fossil-based energy turns out to be more expensive than renewable energy. → The paradigm shift towards renewable energy policies could provide Turkey

A new energy paradigm for Turkey: A political risk-inclusive cost analysis for sustainable energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oksay, Serhan, E-mail: serhano@khas.edu.t [Kadir Has University, Department of Business Administration (Turkey); Iseri, Emre, E-mail: eiseri@khas.edu.t [Kadir Has University, Department of International Relations, Cibali Campus, Kadir Has Caddesi 34083, Istanbul (Turkey)

2011-05-15

Implementing sustainable development policies in order to achieve economic and social development while maintaining adequate environmental protection to minimize the damage inflicted by the constantly increasing world population must be a major priority in the 21st century. While the emerging global debate on potential cost-effective responses has produced potential solutions such as cap and trade systems and/or carbon taxes as part of evolving sustainable energy/environmental policies, this kind of intellectual inquiry does not seem to be an issue among Turkish policy-making elites. This is mainly due to their miscalculation that pursuing sustainable energy policies is much more expensive in comparison to the utilization of fossil fuels such as natural gas. Nevertheless, the pegged prices of an energy sector dominated by natural gas are illusive, as both the political risks and environmental damage have not been incorporated into the current cost calculations. This paper evaluates energy policies through a lens of risk management and takes an alternative approach to calculating energy costs by factoring in political risks. This formulation reveals that the cost of traditional fossil-based energy is in fact more expensive than renewable energy. In addition to being environmentally friendly, the paradigm shift towards renewable energy policies would provide Turkey with a significant opportunity to stimulate its economy by being one of the first countries to develop green technologies and as a result this burgeoning sector would prompt job creation as well; mainly due to the externalities. - Research highlights: {yields} This paper evaluates Turkish energy policies through risk management scope and takes an alternative approach on calculating electricity costs by factoring in political risks. {yields} The cost of traditional fossil-based energy turns out to be more expensive than renewable energy. {yields} The paradigm shift towards renewable energy policies could

Risk decisions and nuclear waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hansson, S.O.

1987-11-01

The risk concept is multidimensional, and much of its contents is lost in the conventional reduction to a unidimensional and quantifiable term. Eight major dimensions of the risk concept are discussed, among them the time factor and the lack-of-knowledge factor. The requirements of a rational discourse are discussed, in general and in relation to risk issues. It is concluded that no single method for the comparison and assessment of risks can be seen as the only rational method. Different methods can all be rational, although based on different values. Risk evaluations cannot be performed as expert assessments, divorced from the political decision process. Instead, risk evaluation must be seen as an essentially political process. Public participation is necessary in democratic decision-making on risks as well as on other issues. Important conclusions can be drawn for the management of nuclear waste, concerning specifications for the technical solution, the need for research on risk concepts, and the decision-making process. (orig.)

2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

Science.gov (United States)

EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

Cost-benefit and risk-benefit assessment for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eichholz, G.G.

1976-01-01

A cost benefit assessment is an essential part of the Environmental Impact Statement submitted as part of the licensing considerations for a nuclear facility. Such an assessment forms part of the initial decision to build a nuclear facility, enters critically into the selection of a suitable site, and ultimately forms part of the design procedures to optimize engineering solutions to deal with waste-heat dissipation, treatment methods for radioactive effluent control, and land and site use. Whereas the initial decision usually can be made in purely economic terms, the latter stages involve environmental and social issues that are not readily quantified and involve a qualitative judgment of what constitutes the least, readily achievable impact. The radiological impact of the plant on the surrounding population from the release of low-level effluents can be quantified and treated as a financial ''cost.'' Alternatively it can be treated as a ''risk'' and related to other risks modern man is subjected to and can be used as a means to establish site boundaries. Both cost-benefit and risk-benefit analyses represent essentially optimization approaches to the problem of making nuclear power plants economically competitive, socially and politically acceptable, and as safe or innocuous as one can reasonably make them

Linking Political Systems and War Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harste, Gorm

2009-01-01

Decisive parts of the Western political system have demonstrated a seemingly surprising misinterpretation of military might. As Madelaine Albright has suggested, the mighty perceived themselves as "almighty". Political power seems to have invested in instrumental coercive power relations and found...... military coercion to be the appropriate mean. Using the system theory and the theory of systemic risks displayed by the German sociologist Niklas Luhmann the article demonstrates how military systems due to their own autonomy and autopoiesis do not fit into the idea of political government....... The Clausewitzian ideal of a political system that could continue its power games by means of war was moderated by Clausewitz' own analysis of "friction". How can a political system be so blind towards the possibilities of another system? What are the risks of systemic blind spots? The argument of the paper...

Political institutions as substitute for democracy: a political economy analysis of economic growth

OpenAIRE

Pereira, Carlos; Teles, Vladimir Kühl

2009-01-01

This manuscript empirically assesses the effects of political institutions on economic growth. It analyzes how political institutions affect economic growth in different stages of democratization and economic development by means of dynamic panel estimation with interaction terms. The new empirical results obtained show that political institutions work as a substitute for democracy promoting economic growth. In other words, political institutions are important for increasing economic growth, ...

Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

1994-08-01

The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

Chemical Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morris, J.M.

1994-01-01

The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

2013-01-01

than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2010-10-01

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

Construction scheduled delay risk assessment by using combined AHP-RII methodology for an international NPP project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hossen, Mufazal Muhammed; Kang, Sun Koo; Kim, Jong Hyun [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School (KINGS), Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

2015-04-15

In this study, Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) construction schedule delay risk assessment methodology is developed and the construction delay risk is assessed for turnkey international NPP projects. Three levels of delay factors were selected through literature review and discussions with nuclear industry experts. A questionnaire survey was conducted on the basis of an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Relative Importance Index (RII) methods and the schedule delay risk is assessed qualitatively and quantitatively by severity and frequency of occurrence of delay factors. This study assigns four main delay factors to the first level: main contractor, utility, regulatory authority, and financial and country factor. The second and the third levels are designed with 12 sub-factors and 32 sub-sub-factors, respectively. This study finds the top five most important sub-sub-factors, which are as follows: policy changes, political instability and public intervention; uncompromising regulatory criteria and licensing documents conflicting with existing regulations; robust design document review procedures; redesign due to errors in design and design changes; and worldwide shortage of qualified and experienced nuclear specific equipment manufacturers. The proposed combined AHP-RII methodology is capable of assessing delay risk effectively and efficiently. Decision makers can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected construction delays of NPPs.

Construction scheduled delay risk assessment by using combined AHP-RII methodology for an international NPP project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hossen, Mufazal Muhammed; Kang, Sun Koo; Kim, Jong Hyun

2015-01-01

In this study, Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) construction schedule delay risk assessment methodology is developed and the construction delay risk is assessed for turnkey international NPP projects. Three levels of delay factors were selected through literature review and discussions with nuclear industry experts. A questionnaire survey was conducted on the basis of an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Relative Importance Index (RII) methods and the schedule delay risk is assessed qualitatively and quantitatively by severity and frequency of occurrence of delay factors. This study assigns four main delay factors to the first level: main contractor, utility, regulatory authority, and financial and country factor. The second and the third levels are designed with 12 sub-factors and 32 sub-sub-factors, respectively. This study finds the top five most important sub-sub-factors, which are as follows: policy changes, political instability and public intervention; uncompromising regulatory criteria and licensing documents conflicting with existing regulations; robust design document review procedures; redesign due to errors in design and design changes; and worldwide shortage of qualified and experienced nuclear specific equipment manufacturers. The proposed combined AHP-RII methodology is capable of assessing delay risk effectively and efficiently. Decision makers can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected construction delays of NPPs

Political changes and trends in cardiovascular risk factors in the Czech Republic, 1985-92.

Science.gov (United States)

Bobak, M; Skodova, Z; Pisa, Z; Poledne, R; Marmot, M

1997-01-01

BACKGROUND: Mortality from cardiovascular diseases is substantially higher in central and eastern Europe than in the west. After the fall of communism, these countries have undergone radical changes in their political, social, and economic environments but little is known about the impact of these changes on health behaviours or risk factors. Data from the Czech Republic, a country whose mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases are among the highest, were analysed in this report. OBJECTIVES: To examine the trends in cardiovascular risk factors in Czech population over the last decade during which a major and sudden change of the political and social system occurred in 1989, and whether the trends differed in relation to age and educational group. DESIGN AND SETTING: Data from three cross sectional surveys conducted in 1985, 1988, and 1992 as a part of the MONICA project were analysed. The surveys examined random samples of men and women aged 25-64 in six Czech districts and measured the following risk factors: smoking, blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), and total and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol. RESULTS: The numbers of subjects (response rate) examined were 2573 (84%) in 1985, 2769 (87%) in 1988, and 2353 (73%) in 1992. Total cholesterol and body mass index increased between 1985 and 1988 and decreased between 1988 and 1992. The prevalence of smoking was declining slightly in men between 1985 and 1992 but remained stable in women. There were only small changes in blood pressure. The decline in cholesterol and BMI in 1988-92 may be related to changes in foods consumption after the price deregulation in 1991. An improvement in risk profile was more pronounced in younger age groups, and the declines in cholesterol and obesity were substantially larger in men and women with higher education. By contrast, there was an increase in smoking in women educated only to primary level. CONCLUSION: Substantial changes in cholesterol, obesity, and women

Information needs for risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

1990-12-31

Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

AXIOLOGICAL POTENTIAL OF POLITICAL NICKNAMES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SHUSTOVA IRINA NIKOLAEVNA

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the study of axiological possibilities of political nicknames. Political nicknames are very expressive. They can be personal and impersonal. Some nicknames lose their primary meaning to become a part of evaluative political lexis. In the language of politics nicknames often serve not only as means of assessment, but also as ideological weapon.

Variance risk premia in CO_2 markets: A political perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reckling, Dennis

2016-01-01

The European Commission discusses the change of free allocation plans to guarantee a stable market equilibrium. Selling over-allocated contracts effectively depreciates prices and negates the effect intended by the regulator to establish a stable price mechanism for CO_2 assets. Our paper investigates mispricing and allocation issues by quantitatively analyzing variance risk premia of CO_2 markets over the course of changing regimes (Phase I-III) for three different assets (European Union Allowances, Certified Emissions Reductions and European Reduction Units). The research paper gives recommendations to regulatory bodies in order to most effectively cap the overall carbon dioxide emissions. The analysis of an enriched dataset, comprising not only of additional CO_2 assets, but also containing data from the European Energy Exchange, shows that variance risk premia are equal to a sample average of 0.69 for European Union Allowances (EUA), 0.17 for Certified Emissions Reductions (CER) and 0.81 for European Reduction Units (ERU). We identify the existence of a common risk factor across different assets that justifies the presence of risk premia. Various policy implications with regards to gaining investors’ confidence in the market are being reviewed. Consequently, we recommend the implementation of a price collar approach to support stable prices for emission allowances. - Highlights: •Enriched dataset covering all three political phases of the CO_2 markets. •Clear policy implications for regulators to most effectively cap the overall CO_2 emissions pool. •Applying a cross-asset benchmark index for variance beta estimation. •CER contracts have been analyzed with respect to variance risk premia for the first time. •Increased forecasting accuracy for CO_2 asset returns by using variance risk premia.

Risk assessment of chemicals: A central European perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bencko, Vladimir [Institute of Hygiene, 1st Medical Faculty, Charles University, Prague (Czech Republic); Ungvary, Gyoergy [National Institute of Occupational Health, Budapest (Hungary)

1992-07-01

During the last four decades in the Czech and Slovak federal Republic (CSFR) and Hungary, similar to the previous Soviet Union and all the Central and East European countries the prevention of the adverse health effects of chemicals in occupational and environmental settings, drinking water and food of population was intended to be achieved by determination and compulsory observance of hygienic limit values. From recent political developments it can be expected that due to the decay of the former Warsaw Pact and the related Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) the next development of risk assessment will reflect that new situation. The OECD principles of toxicity testing and risk assessment of exposure to chemicals will be sooner or later accepted in principle in the framework of a general economic integration of Central and Eastern European countries with EEC. During the 80s there was a growing feeling of the necessity to harmonize the activities of OECD and CMEA countries in the field of toxicological methodology and approaches to risk assessment of chemicals because of the growing production and mutual trade including transport of industrial and agricultural chemicals. As a contributory factor supporting this effort there was growing cross boundary air and river pollution in Europe. The former Council for Mutual Economic Assistance was an intergovernmental organization of 10 countries with a number of other countries and agencies cooperating with it in its work. CMEA as, and OECD still is concerned primarily with economic development but both had stated commitments to protecting human health and the environment. To help to mutual understanding and to promote harmonization of above mentioned obligations and commitments of the both organizations United Nation Environment Programme's International Registry of Potentially Toxic Chemicals and The International Programme on Chemical Safety (UNEP/IRPTC/IPCS) convened an International Consultation on

Risk assessment of chemicals: A central European perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bencko, Vladimir; Gyoergy Ungvary

1992-01-01

During the last four decades in the Czech and Slovak federal Republic (CSFR) and Hungary, similar to the previous Soviet Union and all the Central and East European countries the prevention of the adverse health effects of chemicals in occupational and environmental settings, drinking water and food of population was intended to be achieved by determination and compulsory observance of hygienic limit values. From recent political developments it can be expected that due to the decay of the former Warsaw Pact and the related Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) the next development of risk assessment will reflect that new situation. The OECD principles of toxicity testing and risk assessment of exposure to chemicals will be sooner or later accepted in principle in the framework of a general economic integration of Central and Eastern European countries with EEC. During the 80s there was a growing feeling of the necessity to harmonize the activities of OECD and CMEA countries in the field of toxicological methodology and approaches to risk assessment of chemicals because of the growing production and mutual trade including transport of industrial and agricultural chemicals. As a contributory factor supporting this effort there was growing cross boundary air and river pollution in Europe. The former Council for Mutual Economic Assistance was an intergovernmental organization of 10 countries with a number of other countries and agencies cooperating with it in its work. CMEA as, and OECD still is concerned primarily with economic development but both had stated commitments to protecting human health and the environment. To help to mutual understanding and to promote harmonization of above mentioned obligations and commitments of the both organizations United Nation Environment Programme's International Registry of Potentially Toxic Chemicals and The International Programme on Chemical Safety (UNEP/IRPTC/IPCS) convened an International Consultation on

Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saša T. Bakrač

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

Strategic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

2009-01-01

This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

The political economy of trans-Pakistan gas pipeline project: assessing the political and economic risks for India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pandian, S.

2005-01-01

There is a growing realisation among Indian policy makers to consider the import of natural gas to address India's growing energy demand. Among many policy options to import natural gas, Indo-Iran overland pipeline option is considered to be effective and economical in addressing India's long-term energy demands. Such a pipeline would have to traverse Pakistani territory thereby necessitating a role for Pakistan in the pipeline project. Though security guarantees have been offered, India refuses to entertain the role of Pakistan in the project for a fear of its energy supply being disrupted in case of a military conflict with Pakistan. This paper argues that gas pipeline project is not only aimed at addressing India's energy concerns but also to further its strategic objectives. This paper contends that India, Iran and Pakistan do not have shared objective to make the overland project a political and commercial reality. India's stakes in the overland pipeline project are high as India's economic interests in the pipeline project are not in congruence with the politico-economic and strategic objectives of Iran and Pakistan. (author)

Overview of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rimington, J.D.

1992-01-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

Overview of risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

[Forensic assessment of violence risk].

Science.gov (United States)

Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

2014-03-01

Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

[Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

2016-02-15

Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

Radiation risks and benefits: politics and morality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maxey, M.N.

1983-01-01

The bioethical framework from which moral reasoning concerning nuclear technology has been derived is both seriously flawed and conceptually inadequate. The reasons are examined and are arranged in response to three questions. First, what is the status of alleged scientific evidence from which moral conclusions about the unacceptability of man-made radiation exposures are derived. Secondly, what criticisms of risk assessment reasoning are pertinent to ethical reflection. Finally, what revisions in an ethical framework are necessary if risk estimates of low-dose radiation exposure are to be conducted properly

Managing risk in an unstable world.

Science.gov (United States)

Bremmer, Ian

2005-06-01

With emerging markets like China and politically unstable countries like Saudi Arabia figuring more than ever into companies' investment calculations, business leaders are turning to political risk analysis to measure the impact of politics on potential markets, minimize risks, and make the most of global opportunities. But political risk is more subjective than its economic counterpart. It is influenced by the passage of laws, the foibles of government leaders, and the rise of popular movements. So corporate leaders must grapple not just with broad, easily observable trends but also with nuances of society and even quirks of personality. And those hard-to-quantify factors must constantly be pieced together into an ongoing narrative within historical and regional contexts. As goods, services, information, ideas, and people cross borders today with unprecedented velocity, corporations debating operational or infrastructural investments abroad increasingly need objective, rigorous assessments. One tool for measuring and presenting stability data, for example, incorporates 20 composite indicators of risk in emerging markets and scores risk variables according to both their structural and their temporal components. The indicators are then organized into four equally weighted subcategories whose ratings are aggregated into a single stability score. Countries are ranked on a scale of zero (a failed state) to100 (a fully institutionalized, stable democracy). Companies can buy political risk analyses from consultants or, as some large energy and financial services organizations have done, develop them in-house. Either way, a complete and accurate picture of any country's risk requires analysts with strong reportorial skills; timely, accurate data on a variety of social and political trends; and a framework for evaluating the impact of individual risks on stability.

Local Politics and a Self-assessment of Political Practice. Perspective of a Neighbourhood Leader in Mexico City on their Political Trajectory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hélène Combes

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This article analyses politics at the local level through the perspective of a neighbourhood leader in Mexico City. Drawing on the comprehensive sociology approach and the study of a specific career trajectory, it analyses how a neighbourhood leader works to construct beneficiaries for neighbourhood level social programs and broker resources that would not be leveraged without their work. The analysis presents an alternative vision to other analysts who have emphasized the capture of public funds for electoral purposes by neighbourhood leaders. The objective is to invite researchers to rethink the role of the local political ‘broker’ or intermediary and to consider the complexity of this role. The moral and political dilemmas that condition the behaviour of such leaders are also considered. From here, without making a moral judgement, we consider how political brokerage and the activities that it involves combine instrumental considerations with moral and ideological dimensions.

Political oil import diversification by financial and commercial traders

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kashcheeva, Mila; Tsui, Kevin K.

2015-01-01

International politics affects the oil trade. But do financial and commercial traders who participate in spot oil trading also respond to changes in international politics? We construct a firm-level dataset for all U.S. oil-importing companies over 1986–2008 to examine how these firms respond to increases in “political distance” between the U.S. and her trading partners, measured by divergence in their UN General Assembly voting patterns. Consistent with previous macro evidence, we first show that individual firms diversify their oil imports politically, even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. However, the political pattern of oil imports is not entirely driven by the concerns of hold-up risks, which exist when oil transactions via term contracts are associated with backward vertical FDI that is subject to expropriation. In particular, our results indicate that even financial and commercial traders significantly reduce their oil imports from U.S. political enemies. Interestingly, while these traders diversify their oil imports politically immediately after changes in international politics, other oil companies reduce their oil imports with a significant time lag. Our findings suggest that in designing regulations to avoid harmful repercussions on commodity and financial assets, policymakers need to understand the nature of political risk. -- Highlights: •American firms diversify their oil imports politically. •Financial and commercial traders diversify their oil imports politically immediately. •Other oil companies reduce their oil imports with a significant time lag. •Policymakers need to understand the nature of political risk

Risk perception and credibility of risk communication

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sjoeberg, L

1992-10-01

Experts and the public frequently disagree when it comes to risk assessment. The reasons for such disagreement are discussed, and it is pointed out that disagreement among experts and lack of full understanding of real risks contributes to skepticism among the public. The notion that people are in general reacting in a highly emotional and non-rational, phobic, manner is rejected. The very conditions for risk assessment present to the public, and common-sense cognitive dynamics, are better explanations of risk perception, as are some social psychological concepts. If trust is to be established in a country where it is quite low some kind of politically regulated public influence on decision making and risk monitoring is probably needed, e.g. by means of a publicly elected and responsible ombudsman. 57 refs, 8 figs, 5 tabs.

Risk perception and credibility of risk communication

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sjoeberg, L.

1992-10-01

Experts and the public frequently disagree when it comes to risk assessment. The reasons for such disagreement are discussed, and it is pointed out that disagreement among experts and lack of full understanding of real risks contributes to skepticism among the public. The notion that people are in general reacting in a highly emotional and non-rational, phobic, manner is rejected. The very conditions for risk assessment present to the public, and common-sense cognitive dynamics, are better explanations of risk perception, as are some social psychological concepts. If trust is to be established in a country where it is quite low some kind of politically regulated public influence on decision making and risk monitoring is probably needed, e.g. by means of a publicly elected and responsible ombudsman. 57 refs, 8 figs, 5 tabs

Patient caries risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

2009-01-01

Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

Building better environmental risk assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raymond eLayton

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

Science.gov (United States)

Schwalbe, Craig S.

2009-01-01

The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

The international politics of geoengineering:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Corry, Olaf

2017-01-01

the politics of climate change dramatically, yet in evaluating whether they might ultimately reduce climate risks, their political and security implications have so far not been given adequate prominence. This article puts forward what it calls the ‘security hazard’ and argues that this could be a crucial...... factor in determining whether a technology is able, ultimately, to reduce climate risks. Ideas about global governance of geoengineering rely on heroic assumptions about state rationality and a generally pacific international system. Moreover, if in a climate engineered world weather events become...

The Problems and Prospects of Rating Assessment of Political Stability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ирина Анатольевна Белоусова

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the analysis of principles of qualitative and quantitative approaches to measurement of political stability. The author gives a detailed analysis of the problems and prospects of ratings and indices as tools of political analysis and measurement of political stability.

RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szabo Alina

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

Political violence exposure, adolescent school violence, and drug use: The mediating role of school support and posttraumatic stress.

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Lin; Schiff, Miriam; Benbenishty, Rami

2016-01-01

Adolescents may engage in risk behaviors to cope with the negative psychological impacts resulting from exposure to political violence. Guided by the Deterioration Deterrence Model and General Strain Theory, the present study assessed the mediating role of school support and posttraumatic stress (PTS) on two adolescent risk behaviors (i.e., school violence and drug use) among Arab and Jewish Israeli adolescents. We analyzed data from a nationally representative survey that consisted of 4,733 Israeli high school students (54.5% females; 63.2% Jewish) following the Second Lebanon War. Structural equation modeling using weighted data bootstrapped with 2,000 iterations evaluated the mediated effects of school support and PTS. The results showed that both school support and PTS mediated the pathways from political violence exposure to school violence and drug use. However, although school support and PTS fully mediated the relationship between political violence exposure and these risk behaviors for Jewish students, school support and PTS only partially mediated the relationships for Arab students. While school support can help decrease the detrimental effect of exposure to terrorism and war, Israeli adolescents exposed to more political violence may perceive receiving less school support than those experiencing less exposure. Findings of this study provide evidence for the theorized mediated pathways between political violence exposure and adolescent risk behaviors by PTS and school support. The study serves as a basis for future research that can unpack the relationship between exposure to political violence and adolescent risk-taking behaviors. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waterhouse, Rachel

1992-01-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

Political crisіs and compromise as the casual determinants in the process of political decisions making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shkuro Anton Sergiyovich

2013-12-01

Full Text Available There is a risk of certain ineffective results in the system of political decisions making. That’s why we should pay a special attention to the criteria of political crisis evaluation. Today the problem of national politics lies only in an adequate raising of questions about the way out of the political crisis using the mechanism of compromise achieving. The article is about the fundamental role of the crisis and the compromise and about their influence on the formation of the strategic development of policy.

Using risk assessment in periodontics.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodman, Alan J

2014-08-01

Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

2009-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

The Politics of Encyclopaedias

Science.gov (United States)

Fozooni, Babak

2012-01-01

The paper assesses the political credibility of three encyclopaedias (Encyclopaedia Britannica, Encyclopedia of Marxism and Wikipedia) in relation to three chosen topics (Friedrich Engels's biography; the political philosophy of fascism; and, the discipline of social psychology). I was interested in discerning how entries are represented and…

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cathryn Clarke Murray

Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

Environmental and climate security: improving scenario methodologies for science and risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Briggs, C. M.; Carlsen, H.

2010-12-01

Governments and popular discussions have increasingly referred to concepts of ‘climate security’, often with reference to IPCC data. Development of effective methodologies to translate complex, scientific data into risk assessments has lagged, resulting in overly simplistic political assumptions of potential impacts. Climate security scenarios have been developed for use by security and military agencies, but effective engagement by scientific communities requires an improved framework. Effective use of data requires improvement both of climate projections, and the mapping of cascading impacts across interlinked, complex systems. In this research we propose a process for systematic generation of subsets of scenarios (of arbitrary size) from a given set of variables with possible interlinkages. The variables could include climatic changes as well as other global changes of concerns in a security context. In coping with possible challenges associated with the nexus of climate change and security - where deep structural uncertainty and possible irreversible changes are of primary interest - it is important to explore the outer limits of the relevant uncertainties. Therefore the proposed process includes a novel method that will help scenario developers in generating scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best ‘span’ the whole set of scenarios. When downscaled onto a regional level, this process can provide guidance to potentially significant and abrupt geophysical changes, where high uncertainty has often prevented communication of risks. Potential physical changes can then be used as starting points for mapping cascading effects across networks, including topological analysis to identify critically vulnerable nodes and fragile systems, the existence of positive or negative feedback loops, and possible intervention points. Advanced knowledge of both potential geo-physical shifts and related non

Demographics and Volatile Social Security Wealth: Political Risks of Benefit Rule Changes in Germany

OpenAIRE

Christoph Borgmann; Matthias Heidler

2003-01-01

In this paper we address the question how the generosity of the benefit rule of the German public pension system has changed during the past three decades and how this development can be explained by demographic changes. Firstly, we illustrate the political risk of benefit rule changes for individuals. We find that depending on the birth year and the considered scenario the relative losses vary between 30 and nearly 60 percent. Secondly, we estimate how demographic developments have triggered...

Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

2014-08-01

Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Microbiological risk infection assessment using QMRA in agriculture systems in Côte d'Ivoire, West Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Kouamé, Parfait K; Nguyen-Viet, Hung; Dongo, Kouassi; Zurbrügg, Christian; Biémi, Jean; Bonfoh, Bassirou

2017-10-28

Poor wastewater management that results from a lack of appropriate sanitation infrastructure contributes to increasing health risks in urban areas in Côte d'Ivoire. We assessed the health risks associated with the use of wastewater for watering salad destined for human consumption, to help local authorities in developing appropriate risk mitigation measures for Yamoussoukro, the political capital of Côte d'Ivoire. We applied a stochastic approach based on quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA), focusing on wastewater for farming activities and salad consumption at the household level. Farming activities rely on a large degree on contaminated water and are conducted without any protection. The QMRA highlights that the poor quality of watering water increased the microbiological risk of the two assessed groups of urban farmers and individual households. The annual risk of infection due to watering wastewater in the city is estimated at 0.01 per person per year (pppy) for Giardia lamblia and 0.2 pppy for Escherichia coli O157:H7. The annual risk from salad consumption is 0.01 pppy for G. lamblia and 0.9 pppy for E. coli O157:H7. Both the annual risks from farming activities and salad consumption were higher than the tolerable standard of risk of 10 -4 pppy as defined by the World Health Organization. There is a need to conduct a risk analysis and a cost-effectiveness study on intervention to improve public health and the livelihoods of the producers which are women in majority in Yamoussoukro.

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

Science.gov (United States)

Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

2016-01-01

The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

2017-04-01

The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

Risk assessment in international operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stricklin, Daniela L.

2008-01-01

During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

How Internal Political Efficacy Translates Political Knowledge Into Political Participation

Science.gov (United States)

Reichert, Frank

2016-01-01

This study presents evidence for the mediation effect of political knowledge through political self-efficacy (i.e. internal political efficacy) in the prediction of political participation. It employs an action theoretic approach—by and large grounded on the Theory of Planned Behaviour—and uses data from the German Longitudinal Election Study to examine whether political knowledge has distinct direct effects on voting, conventional, and/or unconventional political participation. It argues that political knowledge raises internal political efficacy and thereby indirectly increases the chance that a citizen will participate in politics. The results of mediated multiple regression analyses yield evidence that political knowledge indeed translates into internal political efficacy, thus it affects political participation of various kinds indirectly. However, internal political efficacy and intentions to participate politically yield simultaneous direct effects only on conventional political participation. Sequentially mediated effects appear for voting and conventional political participation, with political knowledge being mediated by internal political efficacy and subsequently also by behavioural intentions. The mediation patterns for unconventional political participation are less clear though. The discussion accounts for restrictions of this study and points to questions for answer by future research. PMID:27298633

Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

1997-01-01

Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

GAR Global Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

2015-04-01

Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

2009-07-01

Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

1993-01-01

Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

On risk assessment of energy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kunii, Katsuhiko

2005-07-01

Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clauss, D.B.

1994-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

Nuclear risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levenson, M.

1989-01-01

The title of our session, Nuclear Risk Versus Other Power Options, is provocative. It is also a title with different meanings to different people. To the utility chief executive officer, nuclear power is a high-risk financial undertaking because of political and economic barriers to cost recovery. To the utility dispatcher, it is a high-risk future power source since plant completion and start-up dates can be delayed for very long times due to uncertain legal and political issues. To the environmentalist, concerned about global effects such as greenhouse and acid rain, nuclear power is a relatively low risk energy source. To the financial people, nuclear power is a cash cow turned sour because of uncertainties as to what new plants will cost and whether they will even be allowed to operate. The statistics on risk are known and the results of probability risk assessment calculations of risks are known. The challenge is not to make nuclear power safer, it is already one of the safest, if not the safest, source of power currently available. The challenge is to find a way to communicate this to the public

Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

Science.gov (United States)

The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

Risk assessments ensure safer power

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1982-02-19

A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

Political, socio-economic, legal and civilizational risks on the way of Russia and the slavonic world towards sustainable development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergey N. Baburin

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Objective to identify the political socioeconomic and legal risks on the way of Russia and the Slavonic world towards sustainable development. Methods dialectical approach to cognition of social phenomena allowing to analyze them in historical development and functioning in the context of the totality of objective and subjective factors that determined the choice of the following research methods systematic and structural formallegal and comparativelegal. Results the article views the system of risks on the way of Russia and the Slavonic world towards sustainable development which includes political socioeconomic legal and civilizational risks. Scientific recommendations are formulated for the identification analysis and elimination of risks. The main tendencies of the world order are identified changes in the structure of the statesrsquo national interests strengthening the role of nonstate actors promotion of democratic values and ideals the increasing role of international and interstate cooperation. Scientific novelty the article proposes a classification of risks that stand in the way of Russia and the Slavonic world towards sustainable development the necessity of their complex including constitutional overcoming and identifies the causes and conditions contributing to the emergence of the risks. Practical significance the main provisions and conclusions of the article can be used in scientific and educational activities in addressing the issues of planning and predicting the state and legal phenomena and processes.

Technological risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dierkes, M; Coppock, R; Edwards, S

1980-01-01

The book begins with brief statements from representatives of political organizations. Part II presents an overview of the discussion about the control and management of technological progress. Parts III and IV discuss important elements in citizens' perception of technological risks and the development of consensus on how to deal with them. In Part V practical problems in the application of risk assessment and management, and in Part VI additional points are summarized.

Technological risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dierkes, M.; Coppock, R.; Edwards, S.

1980-01-01

The book begins with brief statements from representatives of political organizations. Part II presents an overview of the discussion about the control and management of technological progress. Parts III and IV discuss important elements in citizens' perception of technological risks and the development of consensus on how to deal with them. In Part V practical problems in the application of risk assessment and management, and in Part VI additional points are summarized. (DG)

Risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

2010-01-01

International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

Integrated climate change risk assessment:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

2017-01-01

Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

Hidden consequences of political efficacy: Testing an efficacy-apathy model of political mobilization.

Science.gov (United States)

Osborne, Danny; Yogeeswaran, Kumar; Sibley, Chris G

2015-10-01

Political efficacy-the belief that one can influence politics-is a key predictor of people's involvement in social movements. Political institutions that are open to change should, however, be seen as just. Thus, political efficacy may ironically undermine minority group members' support for collective action by simultaneously increasing their belief in the fairness of the system. The current study aims to examine this possibility in a national sample of Māori-New Zealand's indigenous minority population. Participants (N = 399) were Māori (Mage = 44.22; SD = 13.30) women (n = 272) and men (n = 115; unreported = 12) who completed a survey assessing their levels of (a) political efficacy, (b) system justification, and (c) support for the political mobilization of their group, as well as relevant demographic covariates. Consistent with past research, political efficacy had a positive direct effect on participants' support for the political mobilization of Māori. Nevertheless, political efficacy also had a negative indirect effect on political mobilization support via increases in system justification. These results held after controlling for participants' ethnic identification, self-efficacy, and conservatism. Our findings uncover a hidden consequence of political efficacy and show that, while believing that the political system is receptive to change predicts political mobilization, it can also undermine minorities' support for the mobilization of their group. Thus, our results uncover a previously unknown process that maintains inequality between ethnic minority and majority group members. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

Science.gov (United States)

... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

"Mind the Gap": Researchers Ignore Politics at Their Own Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Feder, Judith

2016-02-01

No matter how distasteful researchers find policy politics, effective policy requires that they engage. Drawing on her career bridging the research/politics gap in health care policy, the author makes a case for why and how researchers can do just that. Copyright © 2016 by Duke University Press.

Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

CERN Document Server

Rausand, Marvin

2011-01-01

With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

2004-01-01

This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

Quantitative Assessment of Political Fragility Indices and Food Prices as Indicators of Food Riots in Countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Davide Natalini

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The impact of resources on social unrest is of increasing interest to political leaders, business and civil society. Recent events have highlighted that (lack of access to critical resources, including food, energy and water, can, in certain circumstances, lead to violent demonstrations. In this paper, we assess a number of political fragility indices to see whether they are good indicators of propensity to food riots. We found that the most accurate is the Political Instability and Absence of Violence Indicator of the Worldwide Governance Indicators by the World Bank. We compute a likelihood of experiencing a food riot for each quartile of this index. We found that the self-sufficiency of food does not seem to affect the likelihood of the occurrence of food riots, but that the level of political stability of a country does have a role. In addition, we identify a monthly and annual threshold for the Food and Agriculture Organisation Food Price Index, above which food riots in fragile states are more likely to occur.

Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Mousavi

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

2015-11-27

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter M. J. Bos

2015-11-01

Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.V. Mihalchuk

2015-06-01

Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Hrdová, Edita

2012-01-01

This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

HTGR accident and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

1982-01-01

This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

Science.gov (United States)

Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

Risk assessment and the environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisk, D.J.

1992-01-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

Risk assessment and the environment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wendland, W.G.

1992-01-01

This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

Creativity, Religiosity, and Political Attitudes

Science.gov (United States)

Zysberg, Leehu; Schenk, Tal

2013-01-01

Although theoretically proposed in the literature, the direct associations between political attitudes, religion, and creativity have been scarcely explored. A convenience sample of 123 adults working in Israel filled out questionnaires assessing political-social attitudes, religiosity, and background factors (e.g., age, gender, education, and…

Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travis, C.C.

1988-01-01

A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

Science.gov (United States)

This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, K.C.

1992-01-01

There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

1992-07-01

There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

A Qualitative Assessment of the Learning Outcomes of Teaching Introductory American Politics in Comparative Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Gelbman, Shamira M.

2011-01-01

This article discusses the findings of an ethnographic content analysis of students' written reflections as a means for assessing the learning outcomes of teaching introductory American politics in comparative perspective. It focuses especially on determining whether and how this approach enhanced students' understanding and retention of knowledge…

RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

OpenAIRE

Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

2017-01-01

The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Calabrese, Edward J

2015-04-01

The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, P.

1984-01-01

More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

How to Teach Political Advice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mouritzen, Poul Erik

in close cooperation with the ministries and the mayor’s office. Besides training students to work under pressure, to write short and precise memos, to work in groups as well as on their own, to assess the political aspects of an issue, the course had some rather positive side effects in terms of student......, staffed with permanent civil servants rather than politically appointed persons. The aim of the course is to train the students in servicing the political and administrative top leaders of a politically led organization that is exposed to daily attention from the public, media and opposition. The course...

Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Părăian Mihaela

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

Speak up! Oral Examinations and Political Science

Science.gov (United States)

Buehler, Melissa J.; Schneider, Laura U.

2009-01-01

Testing assessments of undergraduate political science students is predictable and stagnant. A missing, yet valuable, testing assessment tool that can contribute to the repertoire of political science is the oral examination. Borrowing this testing tool largely from foreign language departments, oral exams require students to "think on their…

Domestic Politics and Nuclear Proliferation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Chul Min; Yim, Man Sung [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

The external security threat is known as the most important factor of nuclear weapons program, the domestic politics situation can also affect the nuclear proliferation decision of a country. For example, when a leader wants nuclear weapons as an ultimate weapon, the domestic politics situation can determine the effectiveness of the weapons program of a country. This study analyzes the current knowledge of the relationship between domestic politics and nuclear proliferation and suggests the main challenges of the quantitative models trying to calculate nuclear proliferation risk of countries. The domestic politics status is one of the most important indicators of nuclear program. However, some variables have never been used in quantitative analyses; for example, number of veto players and the public opinion on nuclear weapons; despite they are considered to be important in various qualitative studies. Future studies should focus on how should they be coded and how can they be linked with existing domestic politics variables.

Domestic Politics and Nuclear Proliferation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Chul Min; Yim, Man Sung

2016-01-01

The external security threat is known as the most important factor of nuclear weapons program, the domestic politics situation can also affect the nuclear proliferation decision of a country. For example, when a leader wants nuclear weapons as an ultimate weapon, the domestic politics situation can determine the effectiveness of the weapons program of a country. This study analyzes the current knowledge of the relationship between domestic politics and nuclear proliferation and suggests the main challenges of the quantitative models trying to calculate nuclear proliferation risk of countries. The domestic politics status is one of the most important indicators of nuclear program. However, some variables have never been used in quantitative analyses; for example, number of veto players and the public opinion on nuclear weapons; despite they are considered to be important in various qualitative studies. Future studies should focus on how should they be coded and how can they be linked with existing domestic politics variables

Risk analysis: opening the process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

1998-01-01

This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

Life cycle inventory and risk assessment of genetic modified perennial ryegrass in a technology foresight perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Borch, K.; Rasmussen, B.; Schleisner, L.

2000-01-01

important and uncertain fac-tors for the future direction of GM crops: 1) publicparticipation in regulation, 2) utility value for the consumers, 3) being first to market GM-ryegrass, and 4) an efficient professional network. Based on the identified drivers several scenar-ios were constructed, of which two......, a methodological approach is suggested to analyse the uncertainties that the biotech industry and the authorities face when implementing genetically modified (GM) crops. These uncertainties embracescientific rationality regarding technological development and risk assessments, as well as ethic political and social...

Interest of comparative risk assessment in economic development and proposals on a regional level: a practical example

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bouville, A.; Coulon, R.; Aigueperse, J.

1983-01-01

As major human activities develop, those responsible for orienting these activities and making decisions must take more and more account, notably due to pressure from the public, of risks likely to arise, together with other elements of choice such as technical, economic, social and political considerations. It is therefore essential to make an objective assessment of these risks to which individual are exposed naturally or because of their life styles. Because most decisions are made on a regional level and because it is also at this level that can be realistically defined the environmental characteristics, the way of life and the economic and social structure which determine the risks to which the regional population is exposed, it is on this scale that a comparative assessment is of maximum value. This assessment should be as exhaustive as possible and should take into account all the risks whether natural or artificial, and from whatever source (industrial, domestic, medical, etc.). It should take into account successively the exposure to various hazards, and the resulting consequences to health based on the choice of appropriate indicators and on available knowledge of exposure-effects relationships. Subjective aspects of risk perception should also be considered. A study program has been begun covering the region called the ''Grand Delta'' which includes the Rhone valley and its banks to the mediterraneen coast in the South East part of France [fr

Political instability and country risk : new evidence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

DeHaan, J; Siermann, CLJ; VanLubek, E

1997-01-01

This note presents new estimates of a probit model for the debt rescheduling, using a sample of 65 countries over the period 1984-93. Apart from economic variables, a whole range of indicators for political instability are included in the model as explanatory variables. It turns out, that none is

Chlorine transportation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

1977-02-01

An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1982-01-01

This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

Risk assessment in maritime transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

2001-01-01

A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

Framework for ecological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

1992-02-01

Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

2012-04-01

To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

2012-01-01

Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

Science.gov (United States)

Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

2016-07-01

Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

Economy and energy politic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martin, J.M.

1992-01-01

This book, divided into four parts, describes, first, energy consumption and national economy growth. In a second part, the irresistible ascent of coal, natural gas and petroleum international markets is studied. In the third part, energy politic is investigated: exchanges releasing, prices deregulation, contestation of power industry monopoly, energy national market and common energetic politic, single market concept. In the last part, global risks and world-wide regulations are given: demand, energy resources, technical changes, comparative evaluations between fossil, nuclear and renewable energies, environment, investments financing and international cooperation. 23 refs., 14 figs., 16 tabs

Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

2016-01-01

Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-03-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oksana G. Feoktistova

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

2017-04-01

Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

2012-01-01

Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

Science.gov (United States)

Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

2008-07-01

The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

Risk estimation and evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ferguson, R A.D.

1982-10-01

Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)

Assessing the Relationship between Community Education, Political Efficacy and Electoral Participation: A Case Study of the Asylum Seeking Community in Cork

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Clodagh; Murphy, Philip

2012-01-01

This paper assesses the relationship between community education and internal political efficacy. In particular it examines the association between voter/civic programmes run in advance of the 2009 local elections in Ireland and internal political efficacy amongst the asylum seeking community in Cork. A survey is used to test this relationship.…

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2013-11-15

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

Risk assessment [Chapter 9

Science.gov (United States)

Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

2014-01-01

What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

Risk assessment - black art or science?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, G.

1988-01-01

Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

Concerning ethical risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boeckle, F.

1991-01-01

After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

Managing Risks in Dry Port Operations

OpenAIRE

Ciortescu Cezar-Gabriel; Pãvãla?cu Narcis Sebastian

2012-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to have an in-depth look into the phenomenon of risk assessment and risk management strategies in managing dry port operations as an integrated part into international containerized freight trade. The fact that world crises take the form of disruptions, bankruptcies, breakdowns, macroeconomic and political changes, and disasters leads to higher risks and makes risk management more and more difficult. This paper aims to discuss the theory behind the dry port concep...

Ecological risk assessment

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

2007-01-01

Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

The Structuring Principle: Political Socialization and Belief Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Searing, Donald D.; And Others

1973-01-01

Assesses the significance of data on childhood political learning to political theory by testing the structuring principle,'' considered one of the central assumptions of political socialization research. This principle asserts that basic orientations acquired during childhood structure the later learning of specific issue beliefs.'' The…

Personality, Political Behavior, and Political Views about Mexico’s 2012 Presidential Election

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alejandro Moreno

2014-04-01

Full Text Available People’s electoral behavior is understood as political predispositions and attitudes in specific institutional contexts. Recent scholarly work has included personality as a key explanatory factor in individual-level models of political participation. In this paper we build upon these recent efforts. We utilize the Big Five approach to assess the effects of different personality traits on people’s likelihood of political engagement during the 2012 presidential election in Mexico. We focus on the effects of personality on voting in the election and on individual views about the integrity of the electoral process. We use post election survey data collected for the Comparative National Elections Project in the 2012 Mexican presidential election. Our findings show that extraversion is a critical individual-level factor accounting for the propensity to turnout in this election as well as to encourage political discussion with family members, friends, neighbors, and co-workers.

Constituency Orientation in Irish Politics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kusche, Isabel

2017-01-01

The constituency orientation of Irish politicians is a recurring topic in Irish political science. Its analysis has predominantly focused on TDs. This article uses a content analysis of candidate video statements in the general election 2016 in order to assess the strength of constituency...... this pattern, indicated by the weak constituency orientation in Dublin and Cork constituencies. Results also indicate differences between parties and some political statuses, while the gender of the candidates is of no relevance. Although the material does not permit a clear distinction between effects...... of political culture and short-term considerations, taken together the results indicate that localism in Irish politics matters, but in more complicated ways than usually depicted....

Corruption, Political Connections, and Municipal Finance

OpenAIRE

Alexander W. Butler; Larry Fauver; Sandra Mortal

2009-01-01

We show that state corruption and political connections have strong effects on municipal bond sales and underwriting. Higher state corruption is associated with greater credit risk and higher bond yields. Corrupt states can eliminate the corruption yield penalty by purchasing credit enhancements. Underwriting fees were significantly higher during an era when underwriters made political contributions to win underwriting business. This pay-to-play underwriting fee premium exists only for negoti...

Human rights, politics, and reviews of research ethics.

Science.gov (United States)

Beyrer, Chris; Kass, Nancy E

2002-07-20

Although the human rights movement and the sphere of research ethics have overlapping principles and goals, there has been little attempt to incorporate external political and human rights contexts into research ethics codes or ethics reviews. Every element of a research ethics review--the balance of risks and benefits, the assurance of rights for individual participants, and the fair selection of research populations--can be affected by the political and human rights background in which a study is done. Research that at first seems to be low in risk may become high in risk if implemented in a country where the government might breach the confidentiality of study results or where results might be used to deport a refugee group. Researchers should determine whether research could or should be done by consulting human rights organisations and, when possible, a trusted colleague, to learn the background political context and human rights conditions of the settings in which they propose to do research.

A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hechanova, A.E.

2001-01-01

The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant DE-FG01-96EW56093) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program and presents a synopsis of the effort that began in 1995 and will officially conclude on April 30, 2000. (author)

Caries risk assessment in children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, S

2016-01-01

PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

A historical perspective of risk-informed regulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Campbell, P.L.

1996-12-01

In Federal studies, the process of using risk information is described as having two general components: (1) risk assessment - the application of credible scientific principles and statistical methods to develop estimates of the likely effects of natural phenomena and human factors and the characterization of these estimates in a form appropriate for the intended audience (e.g., agency decisionmakers, public); and (2) risk management - the process of weighing policy alternatives and selecting the most appropriate regulatory action, integrating the results of risk assessment with engineering data with social, economic, and political concerns to reach a decision. This paper discusses largely the second component.

A historical perspective of risk-informed regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campbell, P.L.

1996-01-01

In Federal studies, the process of using risk information is described as having two general components: (1) risk assessment - the application of credible scientific principles and statistical methods to develop estimates of the likely effects of natural phenomena and human factors and the characterization of these estimates in a form appropriate for the intended audience (e.g., agency decisionmakers, public); and (2) risk management - the process of weighing policy alternatives and selecting the most appropriate regulatory action, integrating the results of risk assessment with engineering data with social, economic, and political concerns to reach a decision. This paper discusses largely the second component

[Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

2012-12-01

Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

Science.gov (United States)

The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

Cognitive Engagement and Online Political Participation on Social Media among Youths in Malaysia: The Moderating role of Political Knowledge

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdulrauf Aishat Adebisi

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The role of political knowledge in engendering political participation among youths in a society cannot be overstated. Yet, there is scarcity of research in this area. Thus, this study assessed the moderating role of political knowledge in the relationship between Access to Political Information on Facebook and Twitter (APIFT, Political Interest (PI and Policy Satisfaction (PS with Online Political Participation on Facebook and Twitter (OPPFT. A cross-sectional survey was conducted on 238 undergraduate students of Universiti Utara Malaysia. Questionnaire was used to collect data which was analysed using Partial Least Squares-MultiGroup Analysis (PLS-MGA. Results revealed that political knowledge moderated the relationship between access to political information on Facebook and Twitter and political interest with youth online political participation on Facebook and Twitter. However, it did not moderate the relationship between policy satisfaction with youth online political participation on Facebook and Twitter. Generally, these findings suggests that political knowledge plays a significant role in youth online political participation in Malaysia. Consequently, this study has added empirical evidence to predictors of political participation while at the same time contributing to the body of knowledge on online political participation.

Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

Modeling for operational event risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.

1997-01-01

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

Economic and Other Determinants of Political Trust

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

William R. DiPietro

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Political trust is important for the effective functioning of government. This paper uses cross country regression analysis to see whether three different measures of economic performance matter for political trust. The results lend support to the hypothesis that political trust is influenced by economic growth, the standard of living, and the appropriate use of government spending. In addition, the paper considers two institutional variables, perceived independence of the judiciary and the degree of democracy to assess their effect on political trust. It finds that perceived judicial independence has a positive effect on political trust, but democracy has a negative effect.

Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

Science.gov (United States)

Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

2005-03-01

One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birnbacher, D.

1991-01-01

Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2011-09-01

The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

2010-01-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

Science.gov (United States)

Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

2010-03-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deriot, S.

1992-10-01

This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Fielder

2018-06-01

Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

1984-01-01

Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

2015-04-01

Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

Health risk assessment of exposure to ionizing radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ogata, Hiromitsu

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is an essential process for evaluating the human health effects of exposure to ionizing radiation and for determining acceptable levels of exposure. There are two major components of radiation risk assessment: a measure of exposure level and a measure of disease occurrence. For quantitative estimation of health risks, it is important to evaluate the association between exposure and disease occurrence using epidemiological or experimental data. In these approaches, statistical risk models are used particularly for estimating cancer risks related to exposure to low levels of radiation. This paper presents a summary of basic models and methods of risk assessment for studying exposure-risk relationships. Moreover, quantitative risk estimates are subject to several sources of uncertainty due to inherent limitations in risk assessment studies. This paper also discusses the limitations of radiation risk assessment. (author)

Western Political Consulting Techniques and Post-Soviet Political Technology in Political Campaigns in Latvia

OpenAIRE

Bērziņa, Ieva

2012-01-01

Western Political Consulting Techniques and Post-Soviet Political Technology in Political Campaigns in Latvia Ieva Dmitričenko Keywords: political campaignsm political consulting, political technology, parties, marketing, media Political campaigning is an international phenomenon, because there is a free flow of information, knowledge and human resource among practitioners of political campaigning in various countries. As a result political campaigning techniques that have proven to ...

Sovereign default risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

2013-01-01

We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jamali, K.

1997-01-01

This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

Education and the political

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Korsgaard, Morten Timmermann

This paper presents the controversial separation of education from the realm of the political as proposed by Hannah Arendt. For the sake of children and the future of the world, we must, according to Arendt, separate education from the political. If we do not do so, we not only expose our children...... to the blinding light of public existence before they are prepared for such exposure but also risk imposing on them our beliefs and prejudices, thus robbing them of the opportunity to create something new. By reading Arendt’s argumentation for the separation as developmental and temporal, Gert Biesta is able...... to claim that this separation is based on a psychological misunderstanding and that it renders children incapable of political action. I propose here that, by considering the separation instead to be a question of protection, not only can we heed the two essences of education that Arendt articulates...

Scope of environmental risk management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Riordan, T

1979-01-01

Environmental risk management embraces three techniques for project appraisal: cost/benefit analysis, environmental impact analysis and risk assessment. It also explicitly relates scientific investigations to political judgments, sometimes so closely that the two cannot be separated. Indeed it is now apparent that environmental risk management encompasses procedures both to review the relative merits and priorities of policies as well as to appraise the environmental risks of particular schemes. Until recently this relationship has not been fully appreciated, so much imagination and innovation is still required to develop the most-suitable mechanisms for review.

PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

1996-01-01

A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.

1987-06-01

Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

Risk assessment for transport operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

1990-01-01

The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jason Dunham

1999-06-01

Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

2009-01-01

A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

The Prediction of Political Competencies by Political Action and Political Media Consumption

Science.gov (United States)

Reichert, Frank

2014-01-01

Political competencies are often considered a precondition for political action; however, they are not independent of previous political participation, which may also include the frequency and the kind of political media consumption. My research aims at finding out the importance of participation in political activities in the past, as well as…

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

Science.gov (United States)

Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

2016-01-01

NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

Risk assessment research and technology assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

1991-01-01

The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

Energy security: between markets and sovereign politics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dudau Radu

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Energy security is a constant presence in the energy-related political discourse all over the world. States strive to secure steady inflows of needed energy supplies, as well as the price affordability of those supplies. However, what are deemed to be the best means to meet such goals depends on one’s theoretical vantage point. On the one hand, economically-minded theorists maintain that energy security is only a matter of market rules and interactions. Thus, they call upon energy markets to deliver both steady supplies and competitive prices. On the other hand, politically-minded scholars emphasize the political and hard-power nature of international energy trades, especially in a global context market by the emergence of state-centered, authoritarian regimes that use large national energy companies as foreign policy instruments. These two positions delineate competing approaches to how energy security risks ought to be managed. The former approaches energy security risks by means similar to portfolio management, requiring diversification of investments in order to insulate them from market shocks. The latter approaches energy security as a matter of foreign policy, by which states envisage interest coordination and favorable alignments within countervailing alliances against the agent of energy security risk. The present paper goes beyond the uncontentious point that these two dimensions are complementary. It argues that, depending on the international context, a more market-driven or a more-politically driven behavior may be adequate.

The influence of political ideology and trust on willingness to vaccinate.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bert Baumgaertner

Full Text Available In light of the increasing refusal of some parents to vaccinate children, public health strategies have focused on increasing knowledge and awareness based on a "knowledge-deficit" approach. However, decisions about vaccination are based on more than mere knowledge of risks, costs, and benefits. Individual decision making about vaccinating involves many other factors including those related to emotion, culture, religion, and socio-political context. In this paper, we use a nationally representative internet survey in the U.S. to investigate socio-political characteristics to assess attitudes about vaccination. In particular, we consider how political ideology and trust affect opinions about vaccinations for flu, pertussis, and measles. Our findings demonstrate that ideology has a direct effect on vaccine attitudes. In particular, conservative respondents are less likely to express pro-vaccination beliefs than other individuals. Furthermore, ideology also has an indirect effect on immunization propensity. The ideology variable predicts an indicator capturing trust in government medical experts, which in turn helps to explain individual-level variation with regards to attitudes about vaccine choice.

The influence of political ideology and trust on willingness to vaccinate.

Science.gov (United States)

Baumgaertner, Bert; Carlisle, Juliet E; Justwan, Florian

2018-01-01

In light of the increasing refusal of some parents to vaccinate children, public health strategies have focused on increasing knowledge and awareness based on a "knowledge-deficit" approach. However, decisions about vaccination are based on more than mere knowledge of risks, costs, and benefits. Individual decision making about vaccinating involves many other factors including those related to emotion, culture, religion, and socio-political context. In this paper, we use a nationally representative internet survey in the U.S. to investigate socio-political characteristics to assess attitudes about vaccination. In particular, we consider how political ideology and trust affect opinions about vaccinations for flu, pertussis, and measles. Our findings demonstrate that ideology has a direct effect on vaccine attitudes. In particular, conservative respondents are less likely to express pro-vaccination beliefs than other individuals. Furthermore, ideology also has an indirect effect on immunization propensity. The ideology variable predicts an indicator capturing trust in government medical experts, which in turn helps to explain individual-level variation with regards to attitudes about vaccine choice.

Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

2013-01-01

A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

Political liberalism and religious claims

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-01

This article gives an overview of 4 important lacunae in political liberalism and identifies, in a preliminary fashion, some trends in the literature that can come in for support in filling these blind spots, which prevent political liberalism from a correct assessment of the diverse nature of religious claims. Political liberalism operates with implicit assumptions about religious actors being either ‘liberal’ or ‘fundamentalist’ and ignores a third, in-between group, namely traditionalist religious actors and their claims. After having explained what makes traditionalist religious actors different from liberal and fundamentalist religious actors, the author develops 4 areas in which political liberalism should be pushed further theoretically in order to correctly theorize the challenge which traditional religious actors pose to liberal democracy. These 4 areas (blind spots) are: (1) the context of translation; (2) the politics of exemptions; (3) the multivocality of theology; and (4) the transnational nature of norm-contestation. PMID:28344375

Significance of earthquake risk in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sues, R.H.; Amico, P.J.; Campbell, R.D.

1990-01-01

During the last eight years, approximately 25 utility-sponsored probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been conducted for US nuclear reactors. Of these, ten have been published, seven of which have included complete seismic risk assessment. The results of the seven published PRAs are reviewed here in order to ascertain the significance of the risk due to earthquake initiating events. While PRA methodology has been in a state of development over the past seven years, and the results are subject to interpretation (as discussed in the paper), from the review conducted it is clear that earthquake-induced initiating events are important risk contributors. It is concluded that earthquake initiating events should not be dismissed, a priori, in any nuclear plant risk assessment. (orig.)

Assessing the authority of political office-holders : The leadership capital index

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bennister, Mark; t Hart, Paul; Worthy, Benjamin

2015-01-01

This article argues that the extent to which political office-holders can effectively attain and wield authority is a function of the stock of ‘leadership capital’. Drawing on the concept of political capital, the article defines leadership capital as aggregate authority composed of three

Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

Science.gov (United States)

Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

Risk-assessment methodology for fast breeder reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ott, K.O.

1976-04-01

The methods applied or proposed for risk assessment of nuclear reactors are reviewed, particularly with respect to their applicability for risk assessment of future commercial fast breeder reactors. All methods are based on the calculation of accident consequences for relatively few accident scenarios. The role and general impact of uncertainties in fast-reactor accident analysis are discussed. The discussion shows the need for improvement of the methodology. A generalized and improved risk-assessment methodology is outlined and proposed (accident-spectra-progression approach). The generalization consists primarily of an explicit treatment of uncertainties throughout the accident progression. The results of this method are obtained in form of consequence distributions. The width and shape of the distributions depend in part on the superposition of the uncertainties. The first moment of the consequence distribution gives an improved prediction of the ''average'' consequence. The higher-consequence moments can be used for consideration of risk aversion. The assessment of the risk of one or a certain number of nuclear reactors can only provide an ''isolated'' risk assessment. The general problem of safety risk assessment and its relation to public acceptance of certain modes of power production is a much broader problem area, which is also discussed

The evolution of violence risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

2014-10-01

Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

Annual Research Review: The experience of youth with political conflict--challenging notions of resilience and encouraging research refinement.

Science.gov (United States)

Barber, Brian K

2013-04-01

Drawing on empirical studies and literature reviews, this paper aims to clarify and qualify the relevance of resilience to youth experiencing political conflict. It focuses on the discordance between expectations of widespread dysfunction among conflict-affected youth and a body of empirical evidence that does not confirm these expectations. The expectation for widespread dysfunction appears exaggerated, relying as it does on low correlations and on presumptions of universal response to adversity. Such a position ignores cultural differences in understanding and responding to adversity, and in the specific case of political conflict, it does not account for the critical role of ideologies and meaning systems that underlie the political conflict and shape a young people's interpretation of the conflict, and their exposure, participation, and processing of experiences. With respect to empirical evidence, the findings must be viewed as tentative given the primitive nature of research designs: namely, concentration on violence exposure as the primary risk factor, at the expense of recognizing war's impact on the broader ecology of youth's lives, including disruptions to key economic, social, and political resources; priority given to psychopathology in the assessment of youth functioning, rather than holistic assessments that would include social and institutional functioning and fit with cultural and normative expectations and transitions; and heavy reliance on cross-sectional, rather than longitudinal, studies. Researchers and practitioners interested in employing resilience as a guiding construct will face such questions: Is resilience predicated on evidence of competent functioning across the breadth of risks associated with political conflict, across most or all domains of functioning, and/or across time? In reality, youth resilience amidst political conflict is likely a complex package of better and poorer functioning that varies over time and in direct

Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali, M.M.

2007-01-01

Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

2006-01-01

Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marek Burda

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

Risk approaches in setting radiation standards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whipple, C.

1984-01-01

This paper discusses efforts to increase the similarity of risk regulation approaches for radiation and chemical carcinogens. The risk assessment process in both cases involves the same controversy over the extrapolation from high to low doses and dose rates, and in both cases the boundaries between science and policy in risk assessment are indistinct. Three basic considerations are presented to approach policy questions: the economic efficiency of the regulatory approach, the degree of residual risk, and the technical opportunities for risk control. It is the author's opinion that if an agency can show that its standard-setting policies are consistent with those which have achieved political and judicial acceptance in other contexts, the greater the predictability of the regulatory process and the stability of this process

Expanding the Political Philosophy Dimension of the RISP Model: Examining the Conditional Indirect Effects of Cultural Cognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Hmielowski, Jay D; Wang, Meredith Y; Donaway, Rebecca R

2018-04-25

This article attempts to connect literatures from the Risk Information Seeking and Processing (RISP) model and cultural cognition theory. We do this by assessing the relationship between the two prominent cultural cognition variables (i.e., group and grid) and risk perceptions. We then examine whether these risk perceptions are associated with three outcomes important to the RISP model: information seeking, systematic processing, and heuristic processing, through a serial mediation model. We used 2015 data collected from 10 communities across the United States to test our hypotheses. Our results show that people high on group and low on grid (egalitarian communitarians) show greater risk perceptions regarding water quality issues. Moreover, these higher levels of perceived risk translate into increased information seeking, systematic processing of information, and lower heuristic processing through intervening variables from the RISP model (e.g., negative emotions and information insufficiency). These results extend the extant literature by expanding on the treatment of political ideology within the RISP model literature and taking a more nuanced approach to political beliefs in accordance with the cultural cognitions literature. Our article also expands on the RISP literature by looking at information-processing variables. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivana Bestvina Bukvić

2013-12-01

Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

2012-01-01

The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

2009-01-01

Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

Science.gov (United States)

Ebner, G.

2009-04-01

Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

1994-01-01

The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

Risk assessment and nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bodansky, D.

1982-01-01

The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

Risk assessment handbook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

1990-09-01

The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

2001-01-01

the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....

Risk assessment analysis of the future technical unit dedicated to the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Grelier, S; Thetio, M; Quentin, V; Achache, V; Sanchez, N; Leroux, V; Durand, E; Pequignot, R

2011-03-01

The National Hospital of Saint Maurice (HNSM) for Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation aims at strengthening its position as a pivot rehabilitation and physical therapy center. The opening in 2011 of a new unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities meets this objective. This project includes several parts: clinical, financial, architectural, organizational, applied clinical research as well as dealing with medical equipments and information system. This study focuses on the risk assessment of this future technical unit. This study was conducted by a group of professionals working for the hospital. It started with the design of a functional model to better comprehend the system to be analyzed. Risk assessment consists in confronting this functional model to a list of dangers in order to determine the vulnerable areas of the system. Then the team designed some scenarios to identify the causes, securities barriers and consequences in order to rank the risks. The analysis targeted various dangers, e.g. political, strategic, financial, economical, marketing, clinical and operational. The team identified more than 70 risky scenarios. For 75% of them the criticality level was deemed initially tolerable and under control or unacceptable. The implementation of an action plan for reducing the level of risks before opening this technical unit brought the system down to an acceptable level at 66%. A year prior to opening this technical unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities, conducting this preliminary risk assessment, with its exhaustive and rigorous methodology, enabled the concerned professionals to work together around an action plan for reducing the risks. 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

Science.gov (United States)

The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hechanova, A.E.

2000-01-01

The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program (NRAMP) is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the NRAMP project and presents a synopsis of the NRAMP effort which occurred from 1995 to 2000. The primary goals of the DOE in awarding the cooperative agreement establishing NRAMP were to (I) use a risk-based approach to evaluate the consequences of alternative actions in DOE's Environmental Remediation Programs at sites in Nevada and (2) use a neutral and credible institution outside the DOE to perform the risk assessments and contribute to public education about environmental management issues at the Nevada Test Site. (author)

Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

2009-01-01

modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

1991-09-01

A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

CERN Document Server

Heimsch, Laura

2016-01-01

The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

Risk monitor-a tool for computer aided risk assessment for NPPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Hadap, Nikhil

2001-01-01

Considerable changes occur in components status and system design and subsequent operation due to changes in plant configuration and their operating procedures. These changes are organised because some components are randomly down and other can be planned for test, maintenance and repair. This results in a fluctuation of risk level over operating time, which is termed as risk profile. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is an analytical technique for assessing the risk by integrating diverse aspects of design and operation of a Nuclear Power Plant. Risk can be defined as the product of the probability of an accident and the consequences from that accident. Reactor Safety Division of BARC has developed PC based tool, which can assess the risk profile. This package can be used to optimise the operation in Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time, and is termed as Risk Monitor. Risk Monitor is user friendly and can re-evaluate core damage frequency for changes in component status, test interval, initiating event frequency etc. Plant restoration advice, when the plant is in high risk configuration, current status of all plant equipment, and equipment prioritization are also provided by the package. (author)

Site remediation guided by risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McBean, E.A.; Gowing, A.; Pieczonka, G.

2002-01-01

'Full text:' Risk assessment (RA) provides an effective tool for identifying hazards with respect to human health and ecological receptors, hazards that arise from contaminants in the environment. Risk assessment relies upon: hazard identification/problem formulation; toxicity assessment; exposure assessment; and risk characterization. Hence, risk assessment provides an effective guide for site remediation through the identification of the associated risks arising from pre- and potential post-remediation activities. As a demonstration of this decision-making process, a site-specific risk assessment (SSRA) was performed on a chemical producing facility. Historical waste practices during the production of DDT compounds resulted in impacted site soils and sediment and soils of the creek passing through the facility. The purpose of the SSRA was to derive site-specific cleanup values for the impacted on-site soils, creek sediments, and embankment soils, incorporating human and ecological receptors associated with the environmental media. The human exposure pathways considered were dermal contact, incidental ingestion, and inhalation of the various soils. The potential human receptors were industrial workers, construction workers, trespassers, and off-site residents. Ingestion of fish from the creek by residents was also evaluated in the human health risk assessment (HHRA). Food web analyses were used to evaluate the impact of exposure to chemical compounds in aquatic sediments and related soils by ecological receptors such as the great blue heron, raccoon, and mink. The SSRA involved modelling the daily chemical intake by receptors and the transfer of chemicals to identified secondary media (e.g., ambient air or animal tissues) that are also potential exposure media. These models, while using the site-specific chemical data in the source media, possess uncertainties associated with default parameters that are only approximations and not site-specific (e.g., soil

Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

Political Crowdfunding as concept of political technologies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valeria GOLKA

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Political crowdfunding is analyzed as a new concept of political science. The justification of use of crowdfunding technologies not only in business but also in the political sphere is argued. The efficiency, availability, low cost of the new forms of political investment through the development of information and communication technologies are noted. The typology of political crowdfunding is proposed. Political projects promoting domestic crowdfunding platforms are analyzed. Attention is drawn to the problem of legal gaps in the regulation of crowdfunding is studied. The foreign experience of organizing public support (mikroinvestment political projects. It is emphasized that in terms of political theory crowdfunding is based on solidarity. The crowdfunding properties of transforming social capital accumulated by social networks into financial capital are mentioned.

Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bailey, A.; Hutter, I.

2006-01-01

Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from

The pharmaceuticalization of sexual risk: vaccine development and the new politics of cancer prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Mamo, Laura; Epstein, Steven

2014-01-01

Vaccine development is a core component of pharmaceutical industry activity and a key site for studying pharmaceuticalization processes. In recent decades, two so-called cancer vaccines have entered the U.S. medical marketplace: a vaccine targeting hepatitis B virus (HBV) to prevent liver cancers and a vaccine targeting human papillomavirus (HPV) to prevent cervical and other cancers. These viruses are two of six sexually transmissible infectious agents (STIs) that are causally linked to the development of cancers; collectively they reference an expanding approach to apprehending cancer that focuses attention simultaneously "inward" toward biomolecular processes and "outward" toward risk behaviors, sexual practices, and lifestyles. This paper juxtaposes the cases of HBV and HPV and their vaccine trajectories to analyze how vaccines, like pharmaceuticals more generally, are emblematic of contemporary pharmaceuticalization processes. We argue that individualized risk, in this case sexual risk, is produced and treated by scientific claims of links between STIs and cancers and through pharmaceutical company and biomedical practices. Simultaneous processes of sexualization and pharmaceuticalization mark these cases. Our comparison demonstrates that these processes are not uniform, and that the production of risks, subjects, and bodies depends not only on the specificities of vaccine development but also on the broader political and cultural frames within which sexuality is understood. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Space, politics, and the political

OpenAIRE

dikec , mustafa

1987-01-01

International audience; Introduction Geography and politics'', Gottmann wrote in 1980, ``have long been in search of each other'' (page 11). Debates in the literature suggest not only that they have found each other, but also that the encounter has instigated, notably in the last decade or so, a body of literature seeking to think space politically, and to think politics spatially. This is not to suggest that previous work on space was apolitical, nor to suggest that previous work on politics...

Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Elwood, Richard W

2016-12-01

There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

Completion of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry.

Science.gov (United States)

Galappathie, Nuwan; Heeramun, Ragini; Jethwa, Krishma

2009-04-01

There is a clear need for high standards of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry. This has been highlighted by a number of high profile homicide enquires which have called for better standards of multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring. There are no national standards for risk assessment. We conducted a study to audit electronically the completion rate of a service-designed risk assessment document within Fromside, a medium secure unit in the UK. The completion rates for key sections of 64 risk assessment documents were assessed. Only 48 of the 64 (75%) documents were electronically available. The completion rates ranged from 59/64 (92%) for the retrospective risk review to 46/64 (72%) for relapse indicators. Only 35/64 (55%) risk documents were updated within the last three months. We found that the use of risk profile documents has helped achieve good standards of risk assessment, however greater priority needs to be given to ongoing monitoring. We recommend that consideration is given to the development of national guidelines for multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring.

Risk Perceptions of Airbnb Hosts: Evidence from a Mediterranean Island

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nahid Malazizi

2018-04-01

Full Text Available In the context of the sharing economy, Airbnb has become a formidable mode of accommodation in the tourism industry worldwide, with a presence in over 34,000 cities in 191 countries. However, the risks associated with online bookings are significant dimensions of this e-market domain. This study assesses Airbnb hosts’ perceived risks and investigates the effects of service, financial, safety and security, psychological and political risks on the host’s satisfaction and intention to continue and recommend this business to potential hosts. A survey was administered to 221 Airbnb hosts located in Northern Cyprus. Structural equation modeling (SEM was used to test the proposed conceptual model. The results revealed that host satisfaction is negatively influenced by financial and safety and security risks; continuance intention is negatively affected by financial, safety and security, and political risks; intention to recommend this business is negatively affected by political risk; and psychological risk increases satisfaction and intention to continue and recommend. By highlighting the theoretical and managerial implications, this study informs Airbnb management of the potential risks associated with this peer-to-peer (P2P business in order to minimize the associated risks, enhance host satisfaction and the quality of their services, and encourage hosts to recommend Airbnb to their peers.

Economic Growth as a Factor of Political Stability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Анна Олеговна Ярославцева

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The article analyzes actual problems of the impact of economic growth on the political stability of different state. The author shows that despite the undoubted correlation of the level of economic development and political stability, economic growth by itself is not a panacea for destabilization risks because of the effects of inflated expectations and transformations of social consciousness. The author argues that the impact of economic growth on political stability is largely ambivalent. On the basis of “Tocqueville's law” and the range of theories of “relative deprivation”, the author makes a conclusion about the principal limitations of predictive and interpretive capabilities of economic indicators (primarily economic growth for the analysis of political stability.

The Effect of Political Stability on Public Education Quality

Science.gov (United States)

Nir, Adam E.; Kafle, Bhojraj Sharma

2013-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to provide a preliminary analysis to evaluate the implications of political stability for educational quality, evident in the survival rate measure. Design/methodology/approach: Secondary analyses were conducted for data drawn from the Political Risk Service Report, the World Bank Report, the United Nations…

Industrial risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okrent, D.

1981-01-01

A brief look is taken at the status of progress, or the lack of it, towards a quantitative approach to the estimation and assessment of risk for several technologies in the United States. The increase of interest in the consideration of comparative risks in decision-making is also discussed. Finally, a recently proposed trial approach to quantitative safety goals for light-water nuclear power reactors is summarized. The approach is divided into two major tasks: the predominantly social and political task of setting safety criteria, and the technical task of estimating the risks and deciding whether the safety criteria have been met. The safety criteria include the following: limits on hazard states within the reactor; limits on risk to the individual; limits on societal risk; a cost-effectiveness criterion as low as reasonably achievable; a small element of risk aversion. (author)

Quantifying risk and accuracy in cancer risk assessment: the process and its role in risk management problem-solving.

Science.gov (United States)

Turturro, A; Hart, R W

1987-01-01

A better understanding of chemical-induced cancer has led to appreciation of similarities to problems addressed by risk management of radiation-induced toxicity. Techniques developed for cancer risk assessment of toxic substances can be generalized to toxic agents. A recent problem-solving approach for risk management of toxic substances developed for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and the role of risk assessment and how uncertainty should be treated within the context of this approach, is discussed. Finally, two different methods, research into the assumptions underlying risk assessment and the modification of risk assessment/risk management documents, are used to illustrate how the technique can be applied.

Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ø.J. Rødseth

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-05-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

2018-01-01

Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Avila, R.

2004-01-01

A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

2015-01-01

Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

Risk assessment in support of plant health

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

2012-01-01

environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallace, W Jon

2007-03-01

Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

1996-01-01

The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures

The political economy of the assessment of value of new health technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Karnon, Jonathan; Edney, Laura; Afzali, Hossein

2018-04-01

Health technology assessment provides a common framework for evaluating the costs and benefits of new health technologies to inform decisions on the public funding of new pharmaceuticals and other health technologies. In Australia and England, empirical analyses of the opportunity costs of government spending on new health technologies suggest more quality adjusted life years are being forgone than are being gained by a non-trivial proportion of funded health technologies. This essay considers the relevance of available empirical estimates of opportunity costs and explores the relationship between the public funding of health technologies and broader political and economic factors. We conclude that the benefits of a general reduction in the prices paid by governments for new technologies outweigh the costs, but evidence of informed public acceptance of reduced access to new health technologies may be required to shift the current approach to assessing the value of new health technologies.

An integrated framework for health and ecological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suter, Glenn W.; Vermeire, Theo; Munns, Wayne R.; Sekizawa, Jun

2005-01-01

The worldHealth Organization's (WHO's) International Program for Chemical Safety has developed a framework for performing risk assessments that integrate the assessment of risks to human health and risks to nonhuman organisms and ecosystems. The WHO's framework recognizes that stakeholders and risk managers have their own processes that are parallel to the scientific process of risk assessment and may interact with the risk assessment at various points, depending on the context. Integration of health and ecology provides consistent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The advantage of the framework to toxicologists lies in the opportunity to use understanding of toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics to inform the integrated assessment of all exposed species