WorldWideScience

Sample records for political risk analysis

  1. ANALYSIS OF THE POLITICAL COMPONENT OF THE COUNTRY RISK FOR ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florentina Cristina BALDAN

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims at analysing the political component of the country risk for Romania. In the first part of the research I presented a few theoretical aspects of the country risk, and I subsequently presented the situation of the political component of the country risk for Romania in the worldwide and European context according to the Marsh Political Risk Map Report for the 2013-2015 period. In relation n to the macroeconomic analysis of the country, in 2015, the European Commission conducted, for the first time, a thorough analysis of Romania’s situation, following which this country was ranked second in terms of macroeconomic imbalances. According to this category, Romania is a country with macroeconomic imbalances which require monitoring and political actions.

  2. EFFECT OF POLITICAL RISK SHOCKS ON TOURISM REVENUE IN SOUTH AFRICA: TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

    OpenAIRE

    Muzindutsi, Paul-Francois; Manaliyo, Jean Claude

    2016-01-01

    Although political risk has an impact on all types of businesses, political risk affects tourism business performance in terms of tourist arrivals and tourism revenue because tourists are very sensitive to political risk in host countries. This study analysed the effect of political risk on revenue from the tourism industry in South Africa. The sample period of 108 months from January 2007 to December 2015 was used based on the availability of data. The political risk were measured by the cou...

  3. The Political Risk of Oil and Gas Mega Projects: A Descriptive Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Veflen, Martin Elton

    2011-01-01

    Two elements can be seen to evolve progressively with globalization: political risk and mega projects. Although a fair amount of research has been carried out in regards to political risk and mega projects as separate units of investigation, few studies have attempted to combine the two. This thesis fills a void in the existing literature by providing a specialized approach to political risk, focusing on political risk of oil and gas mega projects in particular. Drawing on a comprehensive dat...

  4. Risk, responsibility and political action

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halskov Jensen, Elisabeth

    2004-01-01

    ABSTRACT. This paper presents an argumentative case study of the discursive representation of risk, responsibility and political action in the Spanish media. The study uses a critical discourse analytical approach combined with theories on risk, agency and political communication in the media....... It is argued that an application of the Toulmin model is useful for eliciting systematic overall repre-sentations of responsibility and agency in environmental crises such as the mad cow crisis as well as for revealing relationships between social domains such as moral, politics, economics and science...... in discourse. Discourse analysis shows that in the Spanish newspaper sample the focus was on the construal of high risk and on the construal of the national Spanish politicians, the EU and the Brit-ish nation as scapegoats. No responsibility was associated with consumers or other individual players. Political...

  5. Political analysis using R

    CERN Document Server

    Monogan III, James E

    2015-01-01

    Political Analysis Using R can serve as a textbook for undergraduate or graduate students as well as a manual for independent researchers. It is unique among competitor books in its usage of 21 example datasets that are all drawn from political research. All of the data and example code is available from the Springer website, as well as from Dataverse (http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ARKOTI). The book provides a narrative of how R can be useful for addressing problems common to the analysis of public administration, public policy, and political science data specifically, in addition to the social sciences more broadly. While the book uses data drawn from political science, public administration, and policy analyses, it is written so that students and researchers in other fields should find it accessible and useful as well. Political Analysis Using R is perfect for the first-time R user who has no prior knowledge about the program. By working through the first seven chapters of this book, an entry-level user sho...

  6. Risk, responsibility and political action

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halskov Jensen, Elisabeth

    2004-01-01

    . It is argued that an application of the Toulmin model is useful for eliciting systematic overall repre-sentations of responsibility and agency in environmental crises such as the mad cow crisis as well as for revealing relationships between social domains such as moral, politics, economics and science......ABSTRACT. This paper presents an argumentative case study of the discursive representation of risk, responsibility and political action in the Spanish media. The study uses a critical discourse analytical approach combined with theories on risk, agency and political communication in the media...... action was transformed into a moral respon-sibility on the part of the national and European politicians, constrained by economic and technical-scientific reality and represented as taking place only in the public sphere. KEY WORDS: CDA, World Risk Society, argumentation, media discourse, argumentation...

  7. Democracy, political risks and stock market performance

    OpenAIRE

    Lehkonen, Heikki; Heimonen, Kari

    2015-01-01

    This study examines the impacts of democracy and political risk on stock market. Using annualized panel data for 49 emerging markets for 2000–2012 we find evidence that democracy and political risk do have impact on stock market returns and the relationship between democracy and political risk is parabolic, i.e., there is a threshold level of democracy after which political risk begins to decline. Also our results suggest that decreases in political risk lead to higher returns.

  8. A new energy paradigm for Turkey: A political risk-inclusive cost analysis for sustainable energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oksay, Serhan; Iseri, Emre

    2011-01-01

    Implementing sustainable development policies in order to achieve economic and social development while maintaining adequate environmental protection to minimize the damage inflicted by the constantly increasing world population must be a major priority in the 21st century. While the emerging global debate on potential cost-effective responses has produced potential solutions such as cap and trade systems and/or carbon taxes as part of evolving sustainable energy/environmental policies, this kind of intellectual inquiry does not seem to be an issue among Turkish policy-making elites. This is mainly due to their miscalculation that pursuing sustainable energy policies is much more expensive in comparison to the utilization of fossil fuels such as natural gas. Nevertheless, the pegged prices of an energy sector dominated by natural gas are illusive, as both the political risks and environmental damage have not been incorporated into the current cost calculations. This paper evaluates energy policies through a lens of risk management and takes an alternative approach to calculating energy costs by factoring in political risks. This formulation reveals that the cost of traditional fossil-based energy is in fact more expensive than renewable energy. In addition to being environmentally friendly, the paradigm shift towards renewable energy policies would provide Turkey with a significant opportunity to stimulate its economy by being one of the first countries to develop green technologies and as a result this burgeoning sector would prompt job creation as well; mainly due to the externalities. - Research highlights: → This paper evaluates Turkish energy policies through risk management scope and takes an alternative approach on calculating electricity costs by factoring in political risks. → The cost of traditional fossil-based energy turns out to be more expensive than renewable energy. → The paradigm shift towards renewable energy policies could provide Turkey

  9. Risk, science, and politics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrison, K.; Hoberg, G. [British Columbia Univ., Vancouver, BC (Canada)

    1994-12-31

    Case studies of seven controversial substances suspected of causing cancer in humans were analysed: the pesticides Alar and Alachor, urea-formaldehyde foam insulation, radon gas, dioxin, saccharin, and asbestos. Government regulation of toxic substances in Canada and the U.S. were examined. The strengths and weaknesses of each country`s approach were weighted according to five criteria: stringency and timeliness of the regulatory decision, balancing of risks and benefits by decision makers, opportunities for public participation, and the interpretation of science in regulatory decision making. Dramatically different approaches to regulatory science in the two countries were highlighted. The Canadian approach is exemplified by closed decision making, case-by-case review relying heavily on expert judgement, and limited public debate. In contrast, the American approach is characterized by publication of lengthy rationales for regulatory decisions, reliance on standardized procedures for risk assessment, and controversy surrounding the interpretation of scientific evidence. The general conclusion was that both the Canadian and U.S.approaches offer uncertain risks and benefits; the key question is how the risks compare with the benefits, and which consequences are valued the most. Extensive bibliographic notes are provided for each chapter.

  10. Socio-political implications of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hipel, K.W.; Fraser, N.W.

    1982-01-01

    A conflict analysis technique is presented which allows risk to be considered when ascertaining the politically and socially feasible solutions to a given large scale engineering project. In particular, the improved metagame analysis algorithm can be employed to model a given conflict or game which may be concerned with risk and to predict the possible compromise solutions. Risk can be entertained in the analysis since it may affect the preference structure of a specific participant for the possible feasible outcomes in the dispute. To demonstrate how the methodology works in practice, it is applied to the Garrison Diversion Unit conflict which is a serious environmental dispute involving American and Canadian interests

  11. Competitive effects and instruments of power sector reforms. International reform concepts blockade structures, risk distribution. A political economy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liebchen, Armin

    2014-01-01

    Power sectors with weak or inadequate competition structures are the rule, despite numerous attempts at reform. But can afford modern economies this defect for a long time? Why can the implementation of competition are blocked so effectively? The author studied international reform experiences and opens up interesting insights that can also reflect on problems of the German energy turnaround: The difficulty of timing and coordination of the reform components, the development of resistance levels of individual interest groups, breach of contract as a rational alternative, causes unwanted price effects, shifting interest situations of major stakeholders, change dynamics impending regulatory risks, pending financing risks, stranded cost-conflict situations for power stations disconnected from the grid and facilities and instruments of a political and regulatory risk management for reforms. With numerous examples, background analyzes and instruments to reform analysis, this book is aimed at investors, policy planners and analysts. [de

  12. The Political Economy of Intergenerational Risk Sharing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hollanders, D.A.

    2010-01-01

    This paper analyses the political constraints of intergenerational risk sharing. The rst result is that the political process generally does not lead to ex ante optimal insurance. The second result is that in a second best political setting PAYG still contributes to intergenerational risk sharing.

  13. The Political Economy of Regulatory Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Strausz, Roland

    2009-01-01

    I investigate the argument that, in a two–party system with different regulatory objectives, political uncertainty generates regulatory risk. I show that this risk has a fluctuation effect that hurts both parties and an output–expansion effect that benefits one party. Consequently, at least one party dislikes regulatory risk. Moreover, both political parties gain from eliminating regulatory risk when political divergence is small or the winning probability of the regulatory–risk–averse party ...

  14. Shadows on Israeli Gas Success Story: a Political and Geopolitical Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boncourt, Maite de

    2015-12-01

    In Israel, both the regional geopolitical context and domestic politics play an important role in the development of the offshore gas fields. The country has been a forerunner in the discovery of the Eastern Mediterranean basin, thanks to the dedication of the private sector and the support of the State. Today, the entire region is under the spotlights for its energy potential, but the development of the gas resources in Israel still has to deal with internal challenges, related notably to the governance of the sector and the stabilization of the legislative framework to attract investments. (author)

  15. Political uncertainty and firm risk in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danglun Luo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The political uncertainty surrounded by the turnover of government officials has a major impact on local economies and local firms. This paper investigates the relationship between the turnover of prefecture-city officials and the inherent risk faced by local firms in China. Using data from 1999 to 2012, we find that prefecture-city official turnovers significantly increased firm risk. Our results show that the political risk was mitigated when new prefecture-city officials were well connected with their provincial leaders. In addition, the impact of political uncertainty was more pronounced for regulated firms and firms residing in provinces with low market openness.

  16. Gender, risk assessment, and political ambition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet-Cushman, Jennie

    2016-01-01

    In the United States, women have long held the right to vote and can participate fully in the political process, and yet they are underrepresented at all levels of elected office. Worldwide, men's dominance in the realm of politics has also been the norm. To date, scholars have focused on supply-side and demand-side explanations of women's underrepresentation but differences in how men and women assess electoral risk (the risk involved in seeking political office) are not fully explained. To fill this gap, I explore how evolutionary theory offers insights into gendered differences in political ambition and the evaluation of electoral risk. Using the framework of life-history theory, I hypothesize that both cognitive and environmental factors in human evolution, particularly as they relate to sexual selection and social roles, have shaped the psychology of ambition in gendered ways affecting contemporary politics. Cognitive risk-assessment mechanisms evolving in the hominid line came to be expressed differently in females and males, in women and men. These gendered expressions plausibly reflect differentiable environmental pressures in the past and may help explain behaviors in and barriers to women's electoral political activity in the present. If so, then the success of efforts to increase such activity - or, regressively, to suppress it - may be better understood.

  17. The politics of urban climate risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2018-01-01

    makes valuable contributions, this article suggests that all of them remain under-theorized from the point of view of the specific dynamics of local–global interdependencies in urban climate risk politics. In response, the article draws on Beck in outlining the contours of new urban–cosmopolitan risk...... to the study of urban climate politics, by way of asking what contribution Ulrich Beck’s theory of world risk society – and principles of methodological cosmopolitanism – make to such epochal conversations? Three main analytical frameworks stand out: low-carbon transition literature highlight generic processes...... of socio-technical ‘greening’ of urban infrastructures; urban policy mobility work documents growing intercity networks around climate and sustainability; and actor–network theory-informed takes on urban controversies engage the localized politics of specific city-based ‘riskscapes’. While each framework...

  18. The place of Political Risk Insurance in the political risk management strategy of multinational corporations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Violeta Iftinchi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Confronted with a variety of political risks that affect their international activities, multinational corporations (MNCs can use Political Risk Insurance (PRI as a method to mitigate some of those risks. The aim of this article is to present the main characteristics of the PRI policies and participants, to highlight its benefits and to put forward three limitations that prevent MNCs in using PRI in their political risk management strategy (fluctuating capacity on the market, high premium rates and small compensation value. The recent trend in incorporating corporate social responsibility requirements as a pre-condition for providing PRI can contribute to lowering PRI premium rates.

  19. Politics: the Same Obscure Object of Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Cristian Pîrvulescu

    2016-01-01

    The article announces that The Sphere of Politics will be published in a new editorial formula which will be nevertheless about continuity. The Sphere of Politics will further be a cast of the reflection on politics and policy, a space of rational analysis on social and political phenomena, a landmark of the Romanian intellectual debate on the organization and management of the society.

  20. Politically Induced Regulatory Risk and Independent Regulatory Agencies

    OpenAIRE

    Strausz, Roland

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty in election outcomes generates politically induced regulatory risk. Political parties' risk attitudes towards such risk depend on a fluctuation effect that hurts both parties and an output--expansion effect that benefits at least one party. Notwithstanding the parties' risk attitudes, political parties have incentives to negotiate away all regulatory risk by pre-electoral bargaining. Efficient pre-electoral bargaining outcomes fully eliminate politically induced regulatory risk. P...

  1. Insure Against Commercial and Political Risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fergusson, Fergus

    2003-01-01

    The oil and gas sector is enormously diverse, ranging from the giant exploration, production and supply companies to the manufacturers, suppliers and service providers that support an industry of crucial importance to the global community. For understandable reasons, risk management in the oil and gas sector has tended to concentrate on health and safety and environmental issues. Consideration must be made for the risks of engaging in domestic and international trade. The concept of risk and the consequential discipline of risk management underpin and support many of the fundamental activities that maintain successful trade flows. Risk management revolves around the organised procedures of mitigating the foreseen and unforeseen consequences of danger, injury and loss that can have adverse and potentially catastrophic effects on the environment, human lives, economies, political stability and business performance

  2. Politics: the Same Obscure Object of Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian Pîrvulescu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article announces that The Sphere of Politics will be published in a new editorial formula which will be nevertheless about continuity. The Sphere of Politics will further be a cast of the reflection on politics and policy, a space of rational analysis on social and political phenomena, a landmark of the Romanian intellectual debate on the organization and management of the society.

  3. Political risk in fair market value estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gruy, H.J.; Hartsock, J.H.

    1996-01-01

    Political risk arises from unstable governments, commercial establishments and infrastructure as well as labor unrest. All these factors vary from country to country and from time to time. Banks and insurance companies quantify these risks, but they are reluctant to divulge their opinions for fear of alienating possible customers that have been assigned a high risk. An investment in a fixed property such as an oil and gas lease, concession or other mineral interest is subject to political risk. No one will deny that money to be received several years in the future has a greater value today in a country with a stable government, stable tax regime, a sound economy and reliable labor force than in a Third World country where a revolution is brewing. Even in stable countries, the risk of tax law changes, exorbitant environmental production regulations and cleanup costs may vary. How do these factors affect fair market value and how are these calculations made? An important consideration discussed in this paper is the treatment of capital investments

  4. THE FINANCIAL TOOLS FOR COVER POLITICAL RISKS IN PROJECT FINANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Naumenkova

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the risk-mitigation in public-private partnership. Today Ukraine is ranked as "CRT-5 country" and has high levels of economic and political risk. Political risk grows steadily because of financial and political instability in Ukraine. We conclude that investors continue to rank political risk as a key obstacle to long-term investing. The tools for cover many types of political risks such as war, terrorism, civil disturbance, breach of contract, export or operating license cancellation, currency inconvertibility and transfer restriction, change of laws and regulations etc. are described by authors. We focus on the advantages of World Bank Group Guarantee products. The guarantee instruments of the three WBG institutions for cover political risks under different circumstances are the most suitable for public-private partnership in Ukraine. In this article the political risk-mitigation with IBRD Partial Risk Guarantee put forward by authors for PPP projects in Ukraine.

  5. Food, Risk and Politics: Scare, scandal and crisis - insights into the risk politics of food safety

    OpenAIRE

    Randall, Ed J.

    2009-01-01

    This book is about the risk politics of food safety. Food-related risks regularly grab the headlines in ways that threaten reasoned debate and obstruct sensible policy making. The author explains why this is the case. He goes on to make the case for a properly informed and fully open public debate about food safety issues. He argues that this is the true antidote to the politics of scare, scandal and crisis.\\ud \\ud The book skilfully weaves together the many different threads of food safety a...

  6. Countering Political Risk in Colonial India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lubinski, Christina; Giacomin, Valeria; Schnitzer, Klara

    of their employees in British camps during both WWI and WWII. We find that internment impacted business relationships in India well beyond its endpoint and that the WWI internment shaped the subsequent perception of and strategic response to the WWII experience. We show that internment aggravated existing staffing...... challenges, impacted the perception of racial lines of distinctions and re-casted the category “European business.” While internment was perceived and managed as a political risk, the case also shows that it created unexpected networking opportunities, generating a tight community of German businesspeople...

  7. Element of risk: The politics of radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cole, L.A.

    1994-01-01

    The recent history of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) approach to managing the risk of indoor radon offers a rich base from which to consider US practice in risk assessment, management, and communication. The biological evidence of risks from high-level exposure to radon is in many ways stronger--and the gap to be spanned by extrapolation from laboratory animal studies to ambient exposures narrower--than for many of the toxic and hazardous air pollutants that have been the focus of EPA regulatory attention. The epidemiological evidence about radon is complicated by a number of confounding variables, but this is often the state of epidemiological evidence. Radon has also been the focus of a considerable amount of research on risk communication. To complete the promising ingredients, disagreements between federal regulators at EPA and managers of federal nuclear programs run by the Department of Energy (DOE) concerning radon from uranium mill tailings, for example, and other issues in radiation health physics offer a rich array of opportunities to explore issues in federal bureaucratic politics. This book provides a straightforward report of much of the development of US policy on indoor radon over the past decade. As such, it gives readers unfamiliar with the evolution of radon regulation an opportunity to come quickly up to speed on many historical details

  8. Safety Politics and Risk Perceptions in Malaysian Industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wangel, Arne

    by the state from Burawoy, Beronius, and Adesina about production politics and social relations in the labour process provides an integrated perspective on individual risk perceptions, safety practices in enterprises, and government regulation. The empirical data were collected during the period 1989......Abstract The book deals with the analysis of work hazards and safety in industrial enterprises in Peninsular Malaysia, Southeast Asia. It traces the development of this theme of conflict within the context constituted by state, labour market and labour-management relations in Malaysia. The book...... and the activities, which are exercised by referring to such rationality, have to be carefully examined. 'Safety Politics and Risk Perceptions in Malaysian Industry' identifies analytical perspectives, which in detail are able to trace conflicts about the working environment in the industries of developing countries...

  9. Political Risk and Foreign Direct Investments in Kosovo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MSc. Neshat Podvorica

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to present the importance of political risk and its impact on attracting investments, also to analyse policies made by the Kosovo institutions to reduce political risk and increase the FDIs. Attracting of the FDIs is complex because they depend on many factors, and one of the methods that measure political risk is the model used by the PRS Group that includes the flow of the economy through 12 components. Measuring political risk plays an important role in transitional countries, because these are countries that have problems in various fields and also the trust on by the investors is low. As a finding of this study is that Kosovo is estimated to have moderate political risk, and is close to joining the group of countries with low political risk. Challenges faced by Kosovo in reducing political risk are concentrated in several components, which are: socioeconomic, corruption and rule of law components. Kosovo has taken significant steps in improving the conditions for investment, government stability and positioning of the country facing internal and external conflicts.

  10. Privatization, political risk and stock market development in emerging economies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.C.; van Oijen, P.H.

    1999-01-01

    This paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test that gradually resolves uncertainty over

  11. A Political Analysis of Curriculum Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf-Wilets, Vivian C.; Nugent, L. Catherine

    1979-01-01

    Presents an analysis of faculty dynamics in nursing curriculum situations based on the social theories of conflict, community power, and interest-group to form a political model representing stages in policy development. These stages are applied to curriculum change examples to show how social conflict and power plays cause problems. (MF)

  12. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

  13. Is political risk still an issue for Turkish stock market?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samet Günay

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we analyze the effects of internal political risk on the Turkish stock market in the period of 2001–2014. Empirical analyses are conducted through various methods to obtain breaks and regimes in the return volatilities of the BIST100 index. According to the results, while the number of breaks has increased in recent years, the risk level of recent periods is significantly lower than the early regimes, and the risk level trend for all regimes show a negative slope. In conclusion, the Turkish stock market responds to political events, but according to our results, not as significantly as in the past.

  14. EXPERTISE OF POLITICAL ANALYSIS IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. D. Bogaturov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to a problem of political analysis in the fi eld of international relations. The author discusses the key rules, standards and requirements of correct political research as well as basic criteria of analytical correctness. The author formulates typology of analytical papers, assesses the state of environment and working conditions for today’s experts, analysis key problems and diffi culties at the stage of empirical data selection (including verifi cation of information sources, while choosing analytical methods and formulating conclusions. The article gives advice for experts, how to organize research, deal with diffi culties and fi nd non-standard solutions.

  15. Variance risk premia in CO2 markets: A political perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reckling, Dennis

    2016-01-01

    The European Commission discusses the change of free allocation plans to guarantee a stable market equilibrium. Selling over-allocated contracts effectively depreciates prices and negates the effect intended by the regulator to establish a stable price mechanism for CO 2 assets. Our paper investigates mispricing and allocation issues by quantitatively analyzing variance risk premia of CO 2 markets over the course of changing regimes (Phase I-III) for three different assets (European Union Allowances, Certified Emissions Reductions and European Reduction Units). The research paper gives recommendations to regulatory bodies in order to most effectively cap the overall carbon dioxide emissions. The analysis of an enriched dataset, comprising not only of additional CO 2 assets, but also containing data from the European Energy Exchange, shows that variance risk premia are equal to a sample average of 0.69 for European Union Allowances (EUA), 0.17 for Certified Emissions Reductions (CER) and 0.81 for European Reduction Units (ERU). We identify the existence of a common risk factor across different assets that justifies the presence of risk premia. Various policy implications with regards to gaining investors’ confidence in the market are being reviewed. Consequently, we recommend the implementation of a price collar approach to support stable prices for emission allowances. - Highlights: •Enriched dataset covering all three political phases of the CO 2 markets. •Clear policy implications for regulators to most effectively cap the overall CO 2 emissions pool. •Applying a cross-asset benchmark index for variance beta estimation. •CER contracts have been analyzed with respect to variance risk premia for the first time. •Increased forecasting accuracy for CO 2 asset returns by using variance risk premia.

  16. Radiation risks and benefits: politics and morality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maxey, M.N.

    1983-01-01

    The bioethical framework from which moral reasoning concerning nuclear technology has been derived is both seriously flawed and conceptually inadequate. The reasons are examined and are arranged in response to three questions. First, what is the status of alleged scientific evidence from which moral conclusions about the unacceptability of man-made radiation exposures are derived. Secondly, what criticisms of risk assessment reasoning are pertinent to ethical reflection. Finally, what revisions in an ethical framework are necessary if risk estimates of low-dose radiation exposure are to be conducted properly

  17. Dutch Courage : The Politics of Acceptable Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jan van der Meulen; prof. dr. J.M.L.M. Soeters

    2005-01-01

    In this article we analyze the ways in which the risks of military missions and the prospects for casualties have made an impact on the deployment of soldiers by the Netherlands. The question is whether the self-image of being a military nation acts as a hindrance to participation when the going

  18. Social media analysis during political turbulence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonakaki, Despoina; Spiliotopoulos, Dimitris; V Samaras, Christos; Pratikakis, Polyvios; Ioannidis, Sotiris; Fragopoulou, Paraskevi

    2017-01-01

    Today, a considerable proportion of the public political discourse on nationwide elections proceeds in Online Social Networks. Through analyzing this content, we can discover the major themes that prevailed during the discussion, investigate the temporal variation of positive and negative sentiment and examine the semantic proximity of these themes. According to existing studies, the results of similar tasks are heavily dependent on the quality and completeness of dictionaries for linguistic preprocessing, entity discovery and sentiment analysis. Additionally, noise reduction is achieved with methods for sarcasm detection and correction. Here we report on the application of these methods on the complete corpus of tweets regarding two local electoral events of worldwide impact: the Greek referendum of 2015 and the subsequent legislative elections. To this end, we compiled novel dictionaries for sentiment and entity detection for the Greek language tailored to these events. We subsequently performed volume analysis, sentiment analysis, sarcasm correction and topic modeling. Results showed that there was a strong anti-austerity sentiment accompanied with a critical view on European and Greek political actions.

  19. Consensus and conflict resolution: The politics of assessing risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelkin, D.; Pollak, M.

    1980-01-01

    Not the structure of experiments can be generalized but the conditions that will allow dissenting groups to communicate effectively with administrative agencies. This includes a careful definition of the problem that gives due weight to political concerns, the appropriate involvement of affected interests, an unbiased management of the procedures, a fair distribution of expertise, and a real margin of choice. One of the more important outcomes of recent disputes is an awareness that technologies embody not only risks but also controversial political and social choices. (DG)

  20. Sources of political violence, political and psychological analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. B. Balatska

    2015-05-01

    We also consider the following approaches to determining the nature and sources of aggression and violence such as instinktyvizm (K. Lorenz and behaviorism (J. B. Watson and B. F. Skinner et al.. Special attention is paid to theories of frustration aggression (J. Dollard, N. E. Miller, L. Berkowitz et al., according to which the causes of aggression and violence are hidden in a particular mental state – frustration. The particular importance of the theory of T. R. Gurr, in which the source of aggression and political violence are defined through the concept of relative deprivation, is underlined. Another approach is described in the article ­ the concept of aggression as a learned reaction (A. Bandura, G. Levin, B. Fleischmann et al.. Supporters of this approach believe that aggressive behavior is formed in the process of social training.

  1. Bias in risk-benefit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazur, A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

  2. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazu, X.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

  3. Refuse and the ‘Risk Society’: The Political Ecology of Risk in Inter-war Britain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Timothy; Bulmer, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    This article responds to current critiques of Ulrich Beck's ‘risk society’ thesis by historians of science and medicine. Those who have engaged with the concept of risk society have been content to accept the fundamental categories of Beck's analysis. In contrast, we argue that Beck's risk society thesis underplays two key themes. First, the role of capitalist social relations as the driver of technological change and the transformation of everyday life; and second, the ways in which hegemonic discourses of risk can be appropriated and transformed by counter-hegemonic forces. In place of ‘risk society’, we propose an approach based upon a ‘political ecology of risk’, which emphasises the social relations that are fundamental to the everyday politics of environmental health. PMID:24771975

  4. POLITICAL DISCOURSE – A SYNTACTIC AND SEMANTIC ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miodarka Tepavcevic

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The language of politics is commonly studied within discourse analysis, whereby its linguistic features relating to vocabulary, grammar structures, textual and intertextual aspects are investigated using various methodologies. This paper presents an analysis of political discourse from a syntactic-semantic point of view. The corpus studied has been extracted from five. Montenegrin dailies and the analysis attempts to describe the genre as effectuated in the Montenegrin political discourse. As a result, the functions of political language are extrapolated and illustrated and its style is described in terms of intertextuality and other linguistic strategies commonly employed in political discourse. The paper aims to give a contribution to the understanding and linguistic profiling of political language.

  5. How is political risk managed and prioritised in the aerospace and defence industry across different institutional contexts?

    OpenAIRE

    Ramanathan, Alexandre

    2015-01-01

    This dissertation investigates the management and prioritisation of political risk in the aerospace and defence industry using a multiple research approach of 2014 corporate annual reports, surveys, interviews and fuzzy set QCA analysis. The aim of the paper sets out to demonstrate that political risk in the aerospace and defence industry extends further than the traditional definitions based on host-country conditions and the social license to operate, but also largely on the dual relatio...

  6. Risk analysis: opening the process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

    1998-01-01

    This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

  7. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  8. Political Role of Tribes : Analysis of Tribalism, Islamism and Gender ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Political Role of Tribes : Analysis of Tribalism, Islamism and Gender in Iraq, Jordan and Yemen. The institution of the tribe continues to represent a major component of social structure throughout the Middle East, particularly in Iraq, Jordan and Yemen. Tribal relations are deeply intertwined with political relations. In a country ...

  9. From text to political positions: The convergence of political, linguistic and discourse analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Elfrinkhof, A.M.E.; Maks, I.; Kaal, A.R.; Kaal, A.R.; Maks, I.; van Elfrinkhof, A.M.E.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract: This chapter explores how three methods of political text analysis can complement each other to differentiate parties in detail. A word-frequency method and corpus linguistic techniques are joined by critical discourse analysis in an attempt to assess the ideological relation between

  10. Politeness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henri Bergson

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This is the English translation of a speech Bergson made at Lycée Henri-IV on July 30, 1892. This is an interesting text because it anticipates Bergson’s last book, his The Two Sources of Morality and Religion. Like the distinction in The Two Sources between the open and the closed, “Politeness” defines its subject matter in two ways. There is what Bergson calls “manners” and there is true politeness. For Bergson, both kinds of politeness concern equality. Manners or material politeness amount to the ritualized greetings and formalities by means of which we usually define politeness. Unfortunately and like The Two Sources, Bergson attributes this formalized relation to other human beings with primitive and “inferior races.” Nevertheless, Bergson sees in these formalities an attempt, in the name of equality, to ignore other people’s talents and merits so that one can dominate morally superior people. In contrast, true politeness or “spiritual politeness” consists in “intellectual flexibility.” When one meets a person of superior morality, one is flexible in one’s relation to him or her; one abandons the formalities in order to really live her life and think her thoughts. Here we find equality too: “what defines this very polite person is to prefer each of his friends over the others, and to succeed in this way in loving them equally.” After making a comparison to dance, Bergson defines spiritual politeness as “a grace of the mind.” Since both kinds of politeness concern equality, Bergson associates both with justice. However, beyond these two kinds of politeness and justice there is “politeness of the heart,” which concerns charity. In order to indicate politeness of the heart, Bergson describes the kind of person, a sensitive person, who anxiously awaits a word of praise in order to feel good about herself but who also, when she hears a word of reproach, is thrown into sadness. Although Bergson calls the

  11. Political Science Courseware: A Comparative Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Jeremy R. T.

    This critical review of 13 political science software simulations and tutorials rates the programs both by quality of presentation and by educational content. Courseware does have a truly interactive nature yet allows the student to be in an active mode of control. The software programs reviewed feature a variety of graphic, textual, and…

  12. SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF POLITICAL CAPITAL CITATION USING ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    2013-05-21

    May 21, 2013 ... management and in the citation of any political capital in the country. Key Words: Confluence Area, Land/Use, Remote ... study specifically assesses the effect of the natural terrain on the urbanization pattern and its effect .... Increases in river channel width and reduction in average water depth. VI. Increases ...

  13. Decommissioning wind energy projects: An economic and political analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrell, Shannon L.; DeVuyst, Eric A.

    2013-01-01

    Wind energy is the fastest-growing segment of new electrical power capacity in the United States, with the potential for significant growth in the future. To facilitate such growth, a number of concerns between developers and landowners must be resolved, including assurance of wind turbine decommissioning at the end of their useful lives. Oklahoma legislators enlisted the authors to develop an economically-sound proposal to ensure developers complete their decommissioning obligations. Economic analysis of turbine decommissioning is complicated by a lack of operational experience, as few U.S. projects have been decommissioned. This leads to a lack of data regarding decommissioning costs. Politically, the negotiation leading to the finally-enacted solution juxtaposed economic theory against political pragmatism, leading to a different but hopefully sound solution. This article will provide background for the decommissioning issue, chronicle the development of the decommissioning component of the Oklahoma Wind Energy Act, and frame issues that remain for policymakers in regulating wind power development. - Highlights: ► Wind energy is the fastest-growing component of U.S. power generation. ► Decommissioning wind projects is policy concern for wind development. ► Little public information on wind turbine decommissioning costs exists. ► Oklahoma’s solution attempts to account for both costs and risks. ► Additional research is needed to create a more precise policy solution.

  14. Political leaders and the media: can we measure political leadership images in newspapers using computer-assisted content analysis?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aaldering, L.; Vliegenthart, R.

    2016-01-01

    Despite the large amount of research into both media coverage of politics as well as political leadership, surprisingly little research has been devoted to the ways political leaders are discussed in the media. This paper studies whether computer-aided content analysis can be applied in examining

  15. Competitive effects and instruments of power sector reforms. International reform concepts blockade structures, risk distribution. A political economy analysis; Wettbewerbseffekte und Instrumente von Stromsektorreformen. Internationale Reformkonzepte, Blockadestrukturen, Risikoverteilung. Eine politoekonomische Analyse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liebchen, Armin [Liebchen Consulting, Berlin (Germany)

    2014-07-01

    Power sectors with weak or inadequate competition structures are the rule, despite numerous attempts at reform. But can afford modern economies this defect for a long time? Why can the implementation of competition are blocked so effectively? The author studied international reform experiences and opens up interesting insights that can also reflect on problems of the German energy turnaround: The difficulty of timing and coordination of the reform components, the development of resistance levels of individual interest groups, breach of contract as a rational alternative, causes unwanted price effects, shifting interest situations of major stakeholders, change dynamics impending regulatory risks, pending financing risks, stranded cost-conflict situations for power stations disconnected from the grid and facilities and instruments of a political and regulatory risk management for reforms. With numerous examples, background analyzes and instruments to reform analysis, this book is aimed at investors, policy planners and analysts. [German] Stromsektoren mit schwachen oder unzulaenglichen Wettbewerbsstrukturen sind trotz zahlreicher Reformversuche die Regel. Aber koennen sich moderne Volkswirtschaften diesen Mangel dauerhaft leisten? Warum kann die Einfuehrung von Wettbewerb so wirksam blockiert werden? Der Autor untersucht internationale Reformerfahrungen und eroeffnet interessante Einsichten, die sich auch auf Problemlagen der deutschen Energiewende spiegeln lassen: Die Schwierigkeit des richtigen Timings und der Abstimmung der Reformteile, dem Aufbau von Widerstandslinien einzelner Interessensgruppen, Vertragsbruch als rationaler Alternative, Ursachen unerwuenschter Preiseffekte, sich verschiebenden Interessenslagen wichtiger Akteure, Veraenderungsdynamik drohender Regulierungsrisiken, schwebenden Finanzierungsrisiken, stranded-cost-Konfliktlagen fuer vom Netz genommene Kraftwerke und Moeglichkeiten und Instrumenten eines politisch-regulatorischen Risikomanagements

  16. High political participation, high social capital? A relational analysis of youth social capital and political participation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teney, Celine; Hanquinet, Laurie

    2012-09-01

    Social capital has been alleged to increase the capacity for political mobilization. Yet, until now, the empirical debate has not succeeded in rendering a detailed account of the relationships between social capital and political participation partly because of the use of a reductive conception and operationalization of both concepts. Using a multidimensional and relational technique (multiple correspondence analysis) and a detailed youth survey data from Belgium, the article demonstrates that youth draw on diverse forms of social capital and that these forms vary along socio-economic status and ethnic origin. Six classes based on the forms of social capital were identified. Two of them - the 'Committed' and 'Religious' are highly political active. The 'Committed' Class, based on a diversified social capital, consists mainly of non-immigrant youth with a high socio-economic background undertaking a large diversity of political activities. The 'Religious' Class, based on a narrow social capital built around religious activities, is mostly composed of ethnic minority youth with a low SES involved in more specific political activities. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. The role of analysis on the 17 most political acres on the face of the earth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbuckle, Donald R

    2011-06-01

    Benefit-cost and risk analyses associated with agency rule making are required by presidential order and are reviewed by the Office of Management and Budget's (OMB) Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA). This White House oversight of agency regulatory analysis means that OIRA's work, though primarily analytic, competes daily with the intense political pressures that characterize all work in the White House. Even in the face of the demands of politics, analysis is respected and utilized. A balance between politics and analysis is maintained in several ways. Several structural characteristics of the White House help protect analysis, such as a strong complement of offices whose role is primarily analytic (for example, the Council of Economic Advisors, the Office of Science and Technology Policy, and OMB). OIRA's ability to successfully coordinate its regulatory review with White House officials ensures that it serves as an agent for presidential regulatory policy at the same time it champions higher quality benefit-cost and risk analysis. This role as intermediary between analytic and political judgment also results from OIRA's expertise in such analysis and its reputation for the discretion necessary to maintain the trust of the president's upper level staff. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. FOOD RISK ANALYSIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Food risk analysis is a holistic approach to food safety because it considers all aspects of the problem. Risk assessment modeling is the foundation of food risk analysis. Proper design and simulation of the risk assessment model is important to properly predict and control risk. Because of knowl...

  19. Electoral Politics in the Context of Separatism and Political Divergence: An Analysis of 2009 Parliamentary elections in Jammu & Kashmir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rekha Chowdhary

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the 2009 Parliamentary elections in Jammu and Kashmir in the context of the conflict situation of the last two decades. The separatist sentiment, the paper argues, remains ascendant, even though mainstream politics (that had become totally irrelevant during the initial years of militancy and political upsurge has been gradually gaining space. Rather than challenging separatist politics, mainstream politics is  seeking to legitimise itself by acknowledging its own limitations and confining itself to the politics of ‘governance’ while leaving for separatist politics the issue of the ‘ultimate resolution of conflict’. However, in this process of legitimisation, mainstream politics has taken up many issues from the agenda of separatist politics. Consequently, despite the distinction between the two kinds of politics, there exists an overlap between them. The paper also focuses on the political divergence and the assertion of regional/religious identity politics. The Amarnath agitation, which took place a few months before the Parliamentary elections, became the basis of massive political mobilisation and reaffirmation of the popular separatist sentiment in Kashmir and religious cum regional identity politics in Jammu. As such, it forms an important reference point for the analysis. The paper also focuses on the 2008 Assembly election, which immediately preceded the Parliamentary elections.

  20. Leishmaniasis, conflict, and political terror: A spatio-temporal analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Isha; Berrang-Ford, Lea

    2016-10-01

    Leishmaniasis has been estimated to cause the ninth largest burden amongst global infectious diseases. Occurrence of the disease has been anecdotally associated with periods of conflict, leading to its referral as a disease of 'guerrilla warfare.' Despite this, there have been few studies that quantitatively investigate the extent to which leishmaniasis coincides with conflict or political terror. This study employed a longitudinal approach to empirically test for an association between cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis incidence with occurrence of conflict and political terror at the national level, annually for 15 years (1995-2010). Leishmaniasis incidence data were collected for 54 countries, and combined with UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict and Amnesty International political terror datasets. Mixed effects negative binomial regression models clustered at the country-level were constructed to evaluate the incidence rate ratios against the predictors, while controlling for wealth. Additionally, to understand how and why conflict-terror may be associated with leishmaniasis incidence, we conducted a historical analysis. We identify and discuss posited causal mechanisms in the literature, and critically assessed pathways by which leishmaniasis might occur in places and times of conflict-terror. There was a significant dose-response relationship for disease incidence based on increasing levels of conflict and terror. Country-years experiencing very high levels of conflict-terror were associated with a 2.38 times higher [95% CI: 1.40-4.05] and 6.02 times higher [95% CI: 2.39-15.15] incidence of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis, respectively. Historical analysis indicated that conflict and terror contribute to-or coincide with-leishmaniasis incidence through processes of population displacement and health system deterioration. This research highlights the potentially increased risks for cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis incidence in areas of high conflict

  1. Book Review: Louise Amoore, The Politics of Possibility: Risk and Security Beyond Probability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grasten, Maj

    2016-01-01

    “The Politics of Possibility: Risk and Security beyond Probability” by Louise Amoore. Durham, NC; London: Duke University Press, 2013. 220 pp., £15.99, ISBN 9780822355601......“The Politics of Possibility: Risk and Security beyond Probability” by Louise Amoore. Durham, NC; London: Duke University Press, 2013. 220 pp., £15.99, ISBN 9780822355601...

  2. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  3. "Mind the Gap": Researchers Ignore Politics at Their Own Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feder, Judith

    2016-02-01

    No matter how distasteful researchers find policy politics, effective policy requires that they engage. Drawing on her career bridging the research/politics gap in health care policy, the author makes a case for why and how researchers can do just that. Copyright © 2016 by Duke University Press.

  4. The necessity for comparative risk analyses as seen from the political point of view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steger, U.

    1981-01-01

    The author describes the current insufficient utilization of risk analyses in the political decision process and investigates if other technologies encounter the same difficulties of acceptance as in the nuclear energy field. This being likely he is trying to find out which contribution comparative risk analyses could make to the process of democratic will-formation so that new technologies are accepted. Firstly the author establishes theses criticizing the recent scientific efforts made in the field of risk analyses and their usability for the political decision process. He then defines the criteria risk analyses have to meet in order to serve as scientific elements for consultative political discussions. (orig./HP) [de

  5. Uncertainty and risk: politics and analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoppe, Robertus

    2006-01-01

    In environmental and sustainable development policy issues, and in infrastructural megaprojects and issues of innovative medical technologies as well, public authorities face emergent complexity, high value diversity, difficult-to-structure problems, high decision stakes, high uncertainty, and thus

  6. Political regimes, political ideology, and self-rated health in Europe : a multilevel analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijts, T.; Perkins, J.M; Subramanian, S.V.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Studies on political ideology and health have found associations between individual ideology and health as well as between ecological measures of political ideology and health. Individual ideology and aggregate measures such as political regimes, however, were never examined

  7. Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk-Assessment Battlefield

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slovic, Paul

    2001-01-01

    Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept 'risk' and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by world views, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach-one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical analysis, and increase

  8. Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk-Assessment Battlefield

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slovic, Paul [Decision Research, Eugene, OR (United States)

    2001-07-01

    Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept 'risk' and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by world views, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach-one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical

  9. International financial linkages of Latin American banks: the effects of political risk and deposit dollarisation

    OpenAIRE

    Ramon-Ballester, Francisco; Wezel, Torsten

    2007-01-01

    This paper empirically investigates the extent to which the financial linkages of Latin American banks with the exterior are influenced by political risk and deposit dollarisation. We find that the sum of banks’ foreign assets and liabilities is a function of risk-return considerations and excess domestic credit demand. An increase in political risk is shown to be associated with a build-up of foreign positions by the banking sector, but this adverse effect on the banking system is mitigated ...

  10. Political parties and politics on the Internet: An analysis of the websites of Catalan political parties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albert Padró-Solanet

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available

    The article analyses the use of New Information and Communications Technologies (NICT by the political parties, going beyond approaches focusing on the potential of these technologies for political transformation and renovation. In order to do this a set of variables that characterise the strategic position of the Catalan parties is employed: ideology, organisation and position in the electoral market. The analysis shows three different forms of usage of the Internet. One group of parties (PSC, CDC-CiU uses it to promote participation and campaigning activities; a second group (ICV, Cs, to generate new resources, and finally, a third group (PSC, ERC uses it to build contact networks. The size, and to a lesser degree the type of organisation, stand out as the major explanatory variables. The major parties use the Internet to promote campaign activities and participation; in contrast, smaller parties tend to make use of the Internet to generate new sources of financing and workforce. Depending on the type of organisation, the parties of the masses seem to be more likely to use the Internet to set up and activate an extensive contact network which recreates the characteristic associative realm of these parties in cyberspace.

  11. Reducing political risk in EU pooling and sharing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijpers, D.; Faleg (ed), G.

    2014-01-01

    Can states share political accountability by allowing common defence capability development, training of troops, or procurement of military equipment? Is the defence industry ready for Pooling and Sharing (PS)?

  12. Tools of Audience Analysis in Contemporary Political Campaigns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedenberg, Robert V.

    This paper examines two basic tools of audience analysis as they are used in contemporary political campaingning: public opinion polls and interpretations of voter statistics. The raw data used in the statistical analyses reported in this investigation come from national polls and voter statistics provided to Republican candidates running in local…

  13. The analysis of confrontational strategic manoeuvres in a political interview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andone, C.; Ritola, J.

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to indicate how knowledge of the argumentative activity type of a political interview plays a role in a pragma-dialectical analysis of confrontational strategic manoeuvres. The author gives an account of the contextual pre-conditions created by the rules and conventions of a

  14. Spatial Analysis of Political Capital Citation Using Remote Sensing ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Spatial Analysis of Political Capital Citation Using Remote Sensing and GIS; A Case Study of Lokoja. ... The PDF file you selected should load here if your Web browser has a PDF reader plug-in installed (for example, a recent version of Adobe Acrobat Reader). If you would like more information about how to print, save, ...

  15. An Analysis of the Cognitive Antecedents of Political Variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyton, Edith M.

    A conceptual model was developed and assessed to examine the relationship between critical thinking and political participation. Although the empirical and theoretical bases for the model are not fully discussed, findings based on path analysis are presented. Based on data from 118 graduate and undergraduate students, the model affirms the…

  16. Political regime and human capital : A cross-country analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klomp, J.G.; de Haan, J.

    We examine the relationship between different dimensions of the political regime in place and human capital using a two-step structural equation model. In the first step, we employ factor analysis on 16 human capital indicators to construct two new human capital measures (basic and advanced human

  17. Political Regime and Human Capital: A Cross-Country Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klomp, Jeroen; de Haan, Jakob

    2013-01-01

    We examine the relationship between different dimensions of the political regime in place and human capital using a two-step structural equation model. In the first step, we employ factor analysis on 16 human capital indicators to construct two new human capital measures (basic and advanced human capital). In the second step, we estimate the…

  18. Political regime and human capital: A cross-country analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klomp, J.G.; Haan, de J.

    2013-01-01

    We examine the relationship between different dimensions of the political regime in place and human capital using a two-step structural equation model. In the first step, we employ factor analysis on 16 human capital indicators to construct two new human capital measures (basic and advanced human

  19. A Statistical Analysis of Women's Perceptions on Politics and Peace ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article is a statistical analysis of the perception that more women in politics would enhance peace building. The data was drawn from a comparative survey of 325 women and four men (community leaders) in the regions of the Niger Delta (Nigeria) and KwaZulu-Natal (South Africa). According to the findings, the ...

  20. Observations on risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.

    1979-11-01

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

  1. Political risk and foreign direct investment in Nigeria: New empirical evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Musa Hatim Koko

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The positive effect of globalization has continued to impact FDI inflow to developing countries during the last decade except for the rising influence of political risk in host locations. Mixed outcomes have trailed the findings related to the studies on FDI and political risk relationship and in particular on African countries like Nigeria. This paper investigated the effect of political risk on FDI inflow to Nigeria using secondary data from 2000 to 2014 using simple linear regression. The study combined from select variables, the institutional factors with location determinants peculiar to Nigeria’s risk environment. It is found that political risk holds a positive and significant association with FDI to Nigeria but not close enough to inhibit the inflow of foreign investment to the country. However, the findings provide a strong basis for policy shift in relation to security, country promotion and rebranding as well strengthening of institutions.

  2. Subjectivisation and feminism. An analysis of a political manifesto

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucia Gómez

    2004-05-01

    Full Text Available The theme of this article is the the Italian feminist movement of the 1980s. That movement was characterised by political transformation and a crtitique of identity. The article takes as its point of departure the inaugural speech of the movement, the manifesto "Piu donne che uomini" (1983. The analysis that we present is inspired in the work of Michel Foucault. It aims to show to that the production of new feministic subjectivities, when fighting the symbolic dimension of masculine domination, has an intrinsically political character. In the 1980s, in the Italian context and particularly in the feminist movement, the rules of the political game set up by the events of 1968 materialized. That allows us to evaluate the effects, achievements and contradictions of an anti-institutional policy that takes as its object one's own identity.

  3. Scientific risk communication about controversial issues influences public perceptions of scientists' political orientations and credibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    Many scientists communicate with the public about risks associated with scientific issues, but such communication may have unintended consequences for how the public views the political orientations and the credibility of the communicating scientist. We explore this possibility using an experiment with a nationally representative sample of Americans in the fall of 2015. We find that risk communication on controversial scientific issues sometimes influences perceptions of the political orientations and credibility of the communicating scientist when the scientist addresses the risks of issues associated with conservative or liberal groups. This relationship is moderated by participant political ideology, with liberals adjusting their perceptions of the scientists' political beliefs more substantially when the scientist addressed the risks of marijuana use when compared with other issues. Conservatives' political perceptions were less impacted by the issue context of the scientific risk communication but indirectly influenced credibility perceptions. Our results support a contextual model of audience interpretation of scientific risk communication. Scientists should be cognizant that audience members may make inferences about the communicating scientist's political orientations and credibility when they engage in risk communication efforts about controversial issues. PMID:29515820

  4. Scientific risk communication about controversial issues influences public perceptions of scientists' political orientations and credibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vraga, Emily; Myers, Teresa; Kotcher, John; Beall, Lindsey; Maibach, Ed

    2018-02-01

    Many scientists communicate with the public about risks associated with scientific issues, but such communication may have unintended consequences for how the public views the political orientations and the credibility of the communicating scientist. We explore this possibility using an experiment with a nationally representative sample of Americans in the fall of 2015. We find that risk communication on controversial scientific issues sometimes influences perceptions of the political orientations and credibility of the communicating scientist when the scientist addresses the risks of issues associated with conservative or liberal groups. This relationship is moderated by participant political ideology, with liberals adjusting their perceptions of the scientists' political beliefs more substantially when the scientist addressed the risks of marijuana use when compared with other issues. Conservatives' political perceptions were less impacted by the issue context of the scientific risk communication but indirectly influenced credibility perceptions. Our results support a contextual model of audience interpretation of scientific risk communication. Scientists should be cognizant that audience members may make inferences about the communicating scientist's political orientations and credibility when they engage in risk communication efforts about controversial issues.

  5. Political Risk and the Cost of Capital in Asia-Pacific Property Markets

    OpenAIRE

    George D. Cashman; David M. Harrison; Hainan Sheng

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of political risk on the cost of capital for publicly traded real estate firms. More specifically, by using a sample of 102 REITs and listed property trusts, which hold nearly 6,000 distinct investment properties across the Asia-Pacific region, we find strong empirical evidence that increased exposure to political risk increases both the cost of equity financing of a firm and its weighted average cost of capital. Interestingly, no such linkages are apparent ...

  6. Political Discourse Analysis on Trump’s Ideology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bayu Adi Sulistyo

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study belongs to Critical Discourse Analysis in sub-branch of Political Discourse. The analysis of this research uses the CDA theory by Norman Fairclough which is widely known as 3D model. Since CDA is closely related to ideology, this study investigates the ideology held by the text producer, speaker. The data used in this study is the speeches delivered by Trump in 2015 as the announcement of his decision to run in the US presidential race. Generally, there are two major topics in them: the dissatisfaction of the current government’s work, especially in economical and political aspect, and the negative perception on Islam. These are considered as Trump’s ideology. Based on the analysis, it can be inferred that Trump seems to have been successfull in creating his discourse. He has successfully persuaded the audience to be on his side.

  7. The importance of the impact of political risk factors in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudolf Essel

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Political risk factors often impact negatively on the financial results of an enterprise, industry, geographical region or an entire country. In severe cases they may even lead to financial disasters. Previous research (by Essel identified 10 specific political risk factors which are common to emerging market economies. As South Africa is a developing country with an emerging market economy, these 10 political risk factors should also be present in this country. This paper focuses on the importance of the impact of political risk factors on an agent’s total annual claims amount when underwriting political risk insurance in South Africa. The objective of this research paper embodies the improvement of financial decision-making by a particular enterprise, industry, geographical region or country operating in an emerging market economy, pertaining to the importance of the impact of political risk factors. A literature study as well as an empirical survey was done to achieve the study’s objective. The conclusions of this research should also be valuable to other enterprises, industries, geographical regions or countries which operate in an emerging market economy.

  8. Expanding the disaster risk management framework: Measuring the constructed level of national identity as a factor of political risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barend Prinsloo

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Political risk is identified as a dominant risk category of disaster risk management (DRM which could negatively affect the success of those measures implemented to reduce disaster risk. Key to political risk is the construct of national identity which, if poorly constructed, could greatly contribute to political risk. This article proposed a tool to measure the construct of national identity and to provide recommendations to strengthen the construct in order to mitigate the exacerbating influence it may have on political risk and ultimately on DRM. The design of the measurement tool consisted of a mixed methodological approach employing both quantitative and qualitative data. The data collection instruments included a literature review (which is shortly provided in the previous sections and an empirical study that utilised data obtained through structured questionnaires. Although the results of the proposed measuring instrument did not include a representative sample of all the cultures in SouthAfrica, the results alluded to different levels for the construction of national identity among black and white respondents, possibly because of different ideological expectations among these groups. The results of the study should be considered as a validation of the measuring tool and not necessarily of the construct of national identity in South Africa. The measuring tool is thus promising for future studies to reduce political risk and ultimately disaster risk.

  9. Online politics: a cross-national explanatory analysis of political websites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Noort, G.; Kruikemeier, S.; Aparaschivei, A.; Boomgaarden, H.; Vliegenthart, R.

    2013-01-01

    This study provides a systematic investigation of party and candidate websites in five European countries: Germany, Romania, Hungary, The Netherlands and Great Britain. It examines three features of online political communication that are presented on political websites (interactivity,

  10. Political institutions as substitute for democracy: a political economy analysis of economic growth

    OpenAIRE

    Pereira, Carlos; Teles, Vladimir Kühl

    2009-01-01

    This manuscript empirically assesses the effects of political institutions on economic growth. It analyzes how political institutions affect economic growth in different stages of democratization and economic development by means of dynamic panel estimation with interaction terms. The new empirical results obtained show that political institutions work as a substitute for democracy promoting economic growth. In other words, political institutions are important for increasing economic growth, ...

  11. Climate Change, State Stability, and Political Risk in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-30

    and how climate change poses threats to stability in Africa, identified strategies to support accountable and effective governance in Africa, and...interviews, the CCAPS program seeks to identify where and how climate change could undermine state stability, to define strategies for building...269–81. v Lisa Friedman, “Which Nations Are Most Vulnerable to Climate Change ? The Daunting Politics of Choosing ,” 2010, http://www.nytimes.com/cwire

  12. Risk analysis methodology survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batson, Robert G.

    1987-01-01

    NASA regulations require that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones as it moves toward full-scale development. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from simple to complex network-based simulation were surveyed. A Program Risk Analysis Handbook was prepared in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique.

  13. Political leaders and the media. Can we measure political leadership images in newspapers using computer-assisted content analysis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aaldering, Loes; Vliegenthart, Rens

    Despite the large amount of research into both media coverage of politics as well as political leadership, surprisingly little research has been devoted to the ways political leaders are discussed in the media. This paper studies whether computer-aided content analysis can be applied in examining political leadership images in Dutch newspaper articles. It, firstly, provides a conceptualization of political leader character traits that integrates different perspectives in the literature. Moreover, this paper measures twelve political leadership images in media coverage, based on a large-scale computer-assisted content analysis of Dutch media coverage (including almost 150.000 newspaper articles), and systematically tests the quality of the employed measurement instrument by assessing the relationship between the images, the variance in the measurement, the over-time development of images for two party leaders and by comparing the computer results with manual coding. We conclude that the computerized content analysis provides a valid measurement for the leadership images in Dutch newspapers. Moreover, we find that the dimensions political craftsmanship, vigorousness, integrity, communicative performances and consistency are regularly applied in discussing party leaders, but that portrayal of party leaders in terms of responsiveness is almost completely absent in Dutch newspapers.

  14. Political regimes, political ideology, and self-rated health in Europe: a multilevel analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huijts, Tim; Perkins, Jessica M; Subramanian, S V

    2010-07-22

    Studies on political ideology and health have found associations between individual ideology and health as well as between ecological measures of political ideology and health. Individual ideology and aggregate measures such as political regimes, however, were never examined simultaneously. Using adjusted logistic multilevel models to analyze data on individuals from 29 European countries and Israel, we found that individual ideology and political regime are independently associated with self-rated health. Individuals with rightwing ideologies report better health than leftwing individuals. Respondents from Eastern Europe and former Soviet republics report poorer health than individuals from social democratic, liberal, Christian conservative, and former Mediterranean dictatorship countries. In contrast to individual ideology and political regimes, country level aggregations of individual ideology are not related to reporting poor health. This study shows that although both individual political ideology and contextual political regime are independently associated with individuals' self-rated health, individual political ideology appears to be more strongly associated with self-rated health than political regime.

  15. Political Regimes, Political Ideology, and Self-Rated Health in Europe: A Multilevel Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huijts, Tim; Perkins, Jessica M.; Subramanian, S. V.

    2010-01-01

    Background Studies on political ideology and health have found associations between individual ideology and health as well as between ecological measures of political ideology and health. Individual ideology and aggregate measures such as political regimes, however, were never examined simultaneously. Methodology/Principal Findings Using adjusted logistic multilevel models to analyze data on individuals from 29 European countries and Israel, we found that individual ideology and political regime are independently associated with self-rated health. Individuals with rightwing ideologies report better health than leftwing individuals. Respondents from Eastern Europe and former Soviet republics report poorer health than individuals from social democratic, liberal, Christian conservative, and former Mediterranean dictatorship countries. In contrast to individual ideology and political regimes, country level aggregations of individual ideology are not related to reporting poor health. Conclusions/Significance This study shows that although both individual political ideology and contextual political regime are independently associated with individuals' self-rated health, individual political ideology appears to be more strongly associated with self-rated health than political regime. PMID:20661433

  16. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  17. Identity politics: implications for gender analysis policy and training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erturk, Y

    1997-01-01

    As attention has shifted from a concern for citizenship, equality, and welfare to ideas of empowerment, equity, and governance, the locus of competition over power has rested with "identity politics," a recognition of cultural diversity that claims the legitimate right to produce alternative definitions and symbols of identity in public space. The change in identity formation from universal/national to fractured/tribalizing has implications for gender relations in contexts where patriarchal power controls production and reproduction. Except for feminism, all discourses in the current competition over identity politics are patriarchal. A look at the forces of change that shifted the process of modernization to a process of globalization reveals that, while modernization tends to standardize, globalization embraces the contradictory forces of universalizing and diversifying trends. Issues of identity and inequality were not problematic until the modern and the traditional subsumed each other and, thus, revealed the inherent contradictions of modernization. The diversifying forces that jeopardize the transnationalization of identity into membership in a "human society" include 1) language differences among the working classes, 2) growing global inequalities, and 3) collective memories of antagonistic histories. An analysis of gender based on identity politics can be conducted on a macro-level to understand the reluctance of central governments to initiate certain interventions, competing needs, new contradictions, changing gender roles, and the importance of promoting a global social contract.

  18. Political determinants of social expenditures in Greece: an empirical analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ebru Canikalp

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available A view prominently expounded is that the interaction between the composition and the volume of public expenditures is directly affected by political, institutional, psephological and ideological indicators. A crucial component of public expenditures, social expenditures play an important role in the economy as they directly and indirectly affect the distribution of income and wealth. Social expenditures aim at reallocating income and wealth unequal distribution. These expenditures comprise cash benefits, direct in-kind provision of goods and services, and tax breaks with social purposes.The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between political structure, i.e. government fragmentation, ideological composition, elections and so on, and the social expenditures in Greece. Employing data from the Comparative Political Dataset (CPDS and the OECD Social Expenditure Database (SOCX, a time series analysis was conducted for Greece for the 1980-2014 period. The findings of the study indicate that voter turnout, spending on the elderly population and the number of government changes have positive and statistically significant effects on social expenditures in Greece while debt stock and cabinet composition have negative effects.

  19. ITS risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-06-01

    Risk analysis plays a key role in the implementation of an architecture. Early definition of the situations, : processes, or events that have the potential for impeding the implementation of key elements of the ITS : National Architecture is a critic...

  20. Some features of structural analysis of political class in modern Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. M. Zakharova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes the features of transformation and structural analysis of Ukrainian political and administrative elite in modern Ukraine. The basic conceptual going near concepts «political class» and «political elite» is analysed, that appeared in modern political science and also the factor of the use and correlation of these concepts is examined in scientific discussion in Ukraine. Given description to the basic stages of forming of political class and modern tendencies of his functioning, the role of political class opens up in the conditions of transformation of the political mode. On the basis of functional analysis an attempt to educe the specific of difficult and dynamic structure of political class is done, grounded, that structural changes into a political class have considerable external consequences both for a political class and for the political system on the whole. Heterogeneity of structure of political class is analysed and the presence of horizontal and vertical distribution of power is investigated. For more complete understanding of forming of political class in the article a quantitative method is used for research of statistical data, that helped to get exact numerical descriptions of statistical model of the investigated indexes. The attempt of analysis of structure of political class is done after the hierarchical system where imperious plenary powers of elite are divided into higher, middle and administrative.

  1. How Did Copenhagen Summit Affect the Public and Political Perception of Environmental Risks in France? An Interview and Documentary Analysis Focussing on The Pre and Post Copenhagen Environmental Legislation in The Energy Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Calvet, Elise

    2010-01-01

    Environmental risks perceptions influence greatly the decisions and creations of new laws and programs which aim to reduce the carbon emissions and preserve the earth from the human negative influence. This study analyses the degree of influence of the Copenhagen summit but also of the public, politicians and energy experts’ risks perceptions in France on the creation of such regulations. The results were built through a documentary and interview analysis. The interviews were focussed on...

  2. The Pros and Cons of Using Joint Ventures as a Tool to Mitigate Political Risks in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Violeta Iftinchi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available As part of their political risk management strategy, multinational corporations (MNCs can use joint ventures as a tool to reduce their exposure to political risks in international activities. The aim of this article is to present the main benefits for MNCs in using joint ventures with a local partner to mitigate political risks in developing countries and to put forward three risks that MNCs have to consider when choosing the local partner (the risk of opportunistic expropriation, the risk associated with transferring of intellectual property rights and reputational risk.

  3. Component of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

  4. Political economy analysis for tobacco control in low- and middle-income countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bump, Jesse B; Reich, Michael R

    2013-03-01

    Tobacco is already the world's leading cause of preventable death, claiming over 5 million lives annually, and this toll is rising. Even though effective tobacco control policies are well researched and widely disseminated, they remain largely unimplemented in most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). For the most part, control attempts by advocates and government regulators have been frustrated by transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) and their supporters. One reason tobacco is so difficult to control is that its political economy has yet to be adequately understood and addressed. We conducted a review of the literature on tobacco control in LMICs using the databases PubMed, EconLit, PsychInfo and AGRICOLA. Among the over 2500 papers and reports we identified, very few explicitly applied political economy analysis to tobacco control in an LMIC setting. The vast majority of papers characterized important aspects of the tobacco epidemic, including who smokes, the effects of smoking on health, the effectiveness of advertising bans, and the activities of TTCs and their allies. But the political and economic dynamics of policy adoption and implementation were not discussed in any but a handful of papers. To help control advocates better understand and manage the process of policy implementation, we identify how political economy analysis would differ from the traditional public health approaches that dominate the literature. We focus on five important problem areas: information problems and the risks of smoking; the roles of domestic producers; multinational corporations and trade disputes in consumption; smuggling; the barriers to raising taxes and establishing spatial restrictions on smoking; and incentive conflicts between government branches. We conclude by discussing the political economy of tobacco and its implications for control strategies.

  5. Risk, value conflict and political legitimacy. Chapter 7

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cotgrove, S.

    1981-01-01

    The differing views of environmentalists, the public and industrialists on the perception of dangers to the environment are analysed. The subject is continued under the headings: competing paradigms; acceptable risk; values for money - flowers or production; a crisis of legitimacy (query). (U.K.)

  6. The Politics of Co-Production: Risks, Limits and Pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flinders, Matthew; Wood, Matthew; Cunningham, Malaika

    2016-01-01

    Co-production is a risky method of social inquiry. It is time-consuming, ethically complex, emotionally demanding, inherently unstable, vulnerable to external shocks, subject to competing demands and it challenges many disciplinary norms. This is what makes it so fresh and innovative. And yet these research-related risks are rarely discussed and,…

  7. Revisiting global body politics in Nepal: A reflexive analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harcourt, Wendy

    2016-01-01

    Using the example of a human rights training in Nepal, the author looks at global body politics in a reflexive piece on her engagement in development practices that translate western feminist ideas on gender inequality and empowerment via UN human rights policies into non-western contexts. It firsts look at postcolonial and critical literature on feminist engagement in gender and development processes including a discussion on the concept of global body politics before examining briefly the framing of gender-based violence in Nepal. The core of the paper is a reflexive analysis and interrogation of the training in Nepal in order to bring out the tensions and contradictions around western developmental, feminist and human rights discourses. The discussion looks at how difficult it is for feminist, human rights and developmental discourses and practices to unmoor themselves from the notion of the 'expert' and those who do the rights/work/righting rights training and those who are perennially seen as requiring training. The conclusion reflects on possibilities of other epistemic practices found in intercultural dialogues.

  8. Risk Analysis of Marine Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Friis

    1998-01-01

    Basic concepts of risk analysis is introduced. Formulation and analysis of fault and event trees are treated.......Basic concepts of risk analysis is introduced. Formulation and analysis of fault and event trees are treated....

  9. Political risk of social security: the case of the indexation of benefits in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dušek, Libor

    -, Č. 318 (2007), s. 1-29 ISSN 1211-3298 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Grant - others:GA ČR GA402/05/0711 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : social security * political risk * pension reform Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp318.pdf

  10. Panama disease and contract farming in the Philippines: Towards a political ecology of risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    La Cruz, De Jaye; Jansen, Kees

    2018-01-01

    Despite the vast research on contract farming by agrarian scholars, little is known about interactions between biological risks and the social–political effects of contracts. This study analysed contract farming arrangements in the export banana industry in the Philippines amidst an expanding

  11. How political affiliation affects adaptation to climate risks: Evidence from New York City

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botzen, W.J.W.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Kunreuther, H; De Moel, H; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    Research reveals that liberals and conservatives in the United States diverge about their beliefs regarding climate change. We show empirically that political affiliation also matters with respect to climate related risks such as flooding from hurricanes. Our study is based on a survey conducted 6

  12. Political affiliation affects adaptation to climate risks : Evidence from New York City

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botzen, W. J Wouter; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Kunreuther, Howard; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2016-01-01

    Research reveals that liberals and conservatives in the United States diverge about their beliefs regarding climate change. We show empirically that political affiliation also matters with respect to climate related risks such as flooding from hurricanes. Our study is based on a survey conducted 6

  13. Benchmark risk analysis models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ale BJM; Golbach GAM; Goos D; Ham K; Janssen LAM; Shield SR; LSO

    2002-01-01

    A so-called benchmark exercise was initiated in which the results of five sets of tools available in the Netherlands would be compared. In the benchmark exercise a quantified risk analysis was performed on a -hypothetical- non-existing hazardous establishment located on a randomly chosen location in

  14. Integrated risk assessment and risk governance as socio-political phenomena: a synthetic view of the challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assmuth, Timo; Hildén, Mikael; Benighaus, Christina

    2010-08-15

    To call for integration in risk assessment and governance as a self-evident goal is deceptively easy. For more insight, we ask: what level and kind of integration and for what purposes is needed and sufficient? What opportunities and obstacles can be identified for integrative treatment of risks? What causes and impacts are there of developments in risk integration? To answer these questions we investigate the socio-political processes and factors surrounding integrated risk assessment and risk governance through a combination of literature reviews and original research. We emphasize regulatory assessment and governance of risks associated with chemicals in the EU, but we link them with other areas to better grasp options and problems in integration. We relate the problems to political factors and barriers in sector and vertical integration, including deviating interests, and further to conflicting information, concepts and mindsets. Risk assessment and risk governance involve varying notions of risks and knowledge, with tensions between stressor- or impact-oriented, exclusive or inclusive, positivist or relativist, and fixed or reflexive notions and approaches. These tensions influence the trajectories of integration between sectors, actors and regions, constraining the fulfillment of ideals of integrated governance. We conclude that risk assessment and governance can be integrated, harmonized and innovated to a limit only, but this limit is variable and flexible, and provides opportunities especially if attention is paid to the socio-political contexts, value choices and decision structures in each case. Generally, the results underline a reflexive approach whereby the meanings, framings and implications of risk integration are probed in open processes of deliberation and negotiation, as a learning process to transcend the formal and prescriptive modes of regulation and knowledge generation. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Political party affiliation, political ideology and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pabayo, Roman; Kawachi, Ichiro; Muennig, Peter

    2015-05-01

    Ecological and cross-sectional studies have indicated that conservative political ideology is associated with better health. Longitudinal analyses of mortality are needed because subjective assessments of ideology may confound subjective assessments of health, particularly in cross-sectional analyses. Data were derived from the 2008 General Social Survey-National Death Index data set. Cox proportional analysis models were used to determine whether political party affiliation or political ideology was associated with time to death. Also, we attempted to identify whether self-reported happiness and self-rated health acted as mediators between political beliefs and time to death. In this analysis of 32,830 participants and a total follow-up time of 498,845 person-years, we find that political party affiliation and political ideology are associated with mortality. However, with the exception of independents (adjusted HR (AHR)=0.93, 95% CI 0.90 to 0.97), political party differences are explained by the participants' underlying sociodemographic characteristics. With respect to ideology, conservatives (AHR=1.06, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.12) and moderates (AHR=1.06, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.11) are at greater risk for mortality during follow-up than liberals. Political party affiliation and political ideology appear to be different predictors of mortality. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  16. An economic analysis of the political promotion system in China

    OpenAIRE

    Jiancai Pi

    2017-01-01

    This paper mainly discusses the political promotion system in China. Specifically, we develop a generalized analytical framework by introducing the contest success function. On the one hand, the central government can give the optimal political promotion benefits to local officials to incentivize them to exert desirable developmental efforts. On the other hand, the central government can undertake a further design of the political promotion system to motivate local officials vi...

  17. Management and policy: political strategies and instruments of the risk types

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renn, O.; Klinke, A.

    1998-01-01

    The main objective of the risk classification is to gain an effective and feasible policy tool for the evaluation and the management or risks. The characterisation provides a platform for designing specific political strategies and measures for each risk type. The strategies pursue the goal to transform unacceptable into acceptable risks, i.e. the risks should not be reduced to zero, but they should be reduced to a level that routine risk management becomes sufficient to ensure safety and integrity. All strategies and respective measures are arranged according to priorities. In the normal case more than one strategy and more than one measure are naturally appropriate and necessary. If resources are limited, strategies and measures should be taken in line with the priority list. The following part lists the prior strategies and the prior measures recommended for each risk type. (authors)

  18. Risk analysis and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uppuluri, V.R.R.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

  19. An Analysis of Maxims in Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Political Speeches

    OpenAIRE

    Pasaribu, Mestika

    2015-01-01

    Thesis entitled " An Analysis of Maxims in Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono 's Political Speeches " is an analysis of the application of the maxim in his speech Yudhoyono . Theoretical basis used is the theory Geoffrey Leech (1983 ) which describes the level of politeness with the use of the maxim . This research uses descriptive qualitative method . This study aims to determine the types of maxims used by Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and the most dominant maxim used Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in his polit...

  20. The social construction of risk and the controversial Brazilian Nuclear Program: among scientific, political and public

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camelo, Ana Paula

    2015-01-01

    This research aims to investigate the Brazilian Nuclear Program (PNB) stating as reference the Fukushima nuclear accident. Its main purpose is to analyze how the Japanese accident impacted the PNB. Therefore, the program will be analyzed within 10-years (2004-2014) in order to answer this question. The discussion launched in this thesis is based on the framework of the Social Studies of Science and Technology, which enables the understanding of socio-technical controversies beyond the social or technological determinism. Through the discussion of the concepts of framing, socio-technical imaginary, risk and governance of science and technology, the research shows how the controversy in focus has resulted in the opportunity to consider not only economic, technological, environmental issues about nuclear energy, but also its political dimensions and challenges. Among these challenges, and from very different perspectives, arise questions about the role nuclear energy plays in the Brazilian context, the future of the program and the decision making process on these issues. Despite the central purpose of this study is essentially on risks, PNB and on the Brazilian context, it should be pointed that it is impossible to consider it in isolation of what is happening internationally (considering interests, tensions, relations between actors, etc.) The research thereby identifies key implications of Fukushima in the international context, but focuses on the disputes regarding possible review of the PNB. It also highlights how the socio-technical controversies, such as the nuclear energy, demand or impose a discussion on the governance of science and technology, risk and on the engagement of different sectors and actors in decision-making on issues, that are at the same time about energy, technology and nationality relevance. All this reflection is made from multi-sited analysis, which allowed following the controversy surrounding nuclear energy, reheated by the Fukushima

  1. The Analysis Of Political Marketing Mix In Influencing Image And Reputation Of Political Party And Their Impact Toward The Competitiveness Of Political Party The Survey Of Voters In West Java Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dedeh Maryani

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Recently in Indonesia public trust toward political parties has been decreasing. Most voters tend to be neutral they had better to choose to none. The Experts argued that political competitivness will be high when political parties apply the accurate marketing mix or enhance their image and reputation. The aim of this research is to show how far political marketing mix in influencing the image or the reputation of political party and their impact toward the competitivness of 10 political parties conducted in Province West Java. I use quantitative method with explanatory survey method design. The population in this research is all voters in West Java while the samples are about 400 persons with cluster random sampling. Data analysis in this research is descriptive with Parsial Least Square PLS hypothesis test. PLS describes political marketing mix toward the image and the reputation of political party and their impact toward the competitivness of political party. The result shows that independent variable X political marketing mix gives a positive and significant influence to intervening variables Y1 and Y2 the image and the reputation of political party and dependent variable Y3 political party competitivness their impact to the variable depend on it. The finding in this study is that marketing mix has high influence toward the competitiveness of political party by enhancing the image and the reputation of political party.

  2. An Analysis of Traditional Political Organizations: Lessons for the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper which is a discourse in political history, adopts the descriptive approach as it tends to assess tenets of socialism and egalitarianism as obtained in some ancient societies of Nigeria's south-south region. The contention of this paper is that, in as much as most of the tenets of politics and government as we know it ...

  3. A STYLISTIC ANALYSIS OF THE LANGUAGE OF POLITICAL ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    language of political campaign, etc.(35). An interesting feature of register is that it shows the speaker's attitude, mood and feeling with respect to the subject of discourse, and the other participants in it. This is manifested through style which, itself, is an important aspect of register. The language of political campaign as a ...

  4. Political Learning by Social Engagement? Chances and Risks for Citizenship Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohnig, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    More and more programs of citizenship education in Germany (and other countries) tend to advance democratic citizenship through social learning in communities. A strong emphasis is put on social engagement to get young people involved in politics as well as to teach them participation. A qualitative analysis of selected German social learning…

  5. Use of the discourse analysis method to study current political practice (by the example of representation of the political leader image

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frolova Nadezhda

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The potentialities in the application of the discourse analysis method to study a political discourse as a current political practice are shown. The authors, using the Foucault methodology, offer a sociological definition for the political discourse. It is the authors’ opinion that the approach mentioned allows investigating a political discourse as a practice for the formation of a certain reality, specific agents, institutions and organizations. A political discourse is a simulative dynamic model of political area where various subdiscourses interact, thus creating their own ideas of policy, symbols and images. Subdiscourses of political leaders become dominating. Inasmuch as a political discourse in a current political system is carried out with the aid of mass media, it could be considered as a media discourse of policy. The authors consider the representation as a basic mechanism for the formation of a political discourse, by the example of the representation of the image of V.V. Putin, the President of the Russian Federation. The representation of a political leader image in a political discourse has a number of peculiarities. It is carried out on the basis of certain principles with the aid of the system of political codes. Empiric investigations allowed making a conclusion that the main symbolic image for the Russian President is an image of a super-hero. It is the authors’ opinion, the image of V.V. Putin as a leader super-hero is determined by the specificity of the Russian political culture within the limits of which a leader is a center of power establishing an authoritarian style of ruling. The authors show the process of the political legitimacy displacement from the institutional level to the personal one by means of mass media. A political leader gains a status of a subject establishing moral, social and value reference points for the whole of the society.

  6. Regulating genetically modified food. Policy trajectories, political culture, and risk perceptions in the U.S., Canada, and EU.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohlers, Anton E

    2010-09-01

    This paper examines whether national differences in political culture add an explanatory dimension to the formulation of policy in the area of biotechnology, especially with respect to genetically modified food. The analysis links the formulation of protective regulatory policies governing genetically modified food to both country and region-specific differences in uncertainty tolerance levels and risk perceptions in the United States, Canada, and European Union. Based on polling data and document analysis, the findings illustrate that these differences matter. Following a mostly opportunistic risk perception within an environment of high tolerance for uncertainty, policymakers in the United States and Canada modified existing regulatory frameworks that govern genetically modified food in their respective countries. In contrast, the mostly cautious perception of new food technologies and low tolerance for uncertainty among European Union member states has contributed to the creation of elaborate and stringent regulatory policies governing genetically modified food.

  7. A public health framework to translate risk factors related to political violence and war into multi-level preventive interventions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, J.T.V.M.

    2010-01-01

    Political violence, armed conflicts and human rights violations are produced by a variety of political, economic and socio-cultural factors. Conflicts can be analyzed with an interdisciplinary approach to obtain a global understanding of the relative contribution of risk and protective factors. A

  8. A Political Economy Analysis of Domestic Resource Mobilization in Uganda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, Anne Mette; Ulriksen, Marianne Sandvad

    This synthesis paper brings together the research findings from four papers prepared by the Uganda team as a part of the UNRISD Politics of Domestic Resource Mobilization for Social Development project, which addresses three broad themes: bargaining and contestation, key relations, and institution......-building with regard to mobilizing resources for social development. In the paper we analyse how political economy factors affect revenue raising and social spending priorities in Uganda. We establish a theoretical framework based on the political settlement theory, within which we explore instances of revenue bargain......, which we understand as political negotiations that shape revenue mobilization, the actual revenue composition, and policy priorities guiding revenue allocation. We focus on three instances of revenue bargains: legislative tax reform, institutional performance of the revenue agencies, and policy...

  9. [Health reform and its political component: a feasibility analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    González Rossetti, A; Mogollón, O

    2002-01-01

    The political dimension of the health reform is a fundamental aspect that not only influences the project's feasibility, but also its form and content. Therefore the study of the political aspects involved in the health reform process is essential to determine the political feasibility of the reform. Based on the case studies of Colombia and Mexico, this study concentrates on the State's capability to promote health reform projects successfully. It specifically focuses on those elements that seek to improve the political feasibility of formulating, legislating and implementing reform proposals. The relevant variables under study are: the institutional context in which the reform initiatives develop; the political dynamic of the reform process; and the characteristics and strategies of the teams in charge of leading the reforms (change teams). The similarities in the political strategies used by the teams in charge of the health reform, and those of similar technocratic teams in charge of economic reform, stand out as one the study's main findings. It is argued that, although these strategies were effective in bringing about the creation of new actors in the health sector such as private organizations for the financing and provision of health services, they did not have the same impact on the transformation of the old actors the health ministries and the social security institutes, therefore considerably limiting the scope of the reforms.

  10. Prisoners signify: a political discourse analysis of mental illness in a prison control unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloyes, Kristin Gates

    2007-09-01

    Increasingly, US prisoners diagnosed with mental illness are housed in control units, the most restrictive form of confinement in the US prison system. This situation has led to intense debate over the legal, ethical and clinical status of mental illness. This is a semiotic struggle with profound effects, yet most related work treats mental illness as a neutral, individual variable. Few analyses locate mental illness within a larger sociopolitical context. Fewer still focus on discursive practice. None critically analyze the accounts of control unit prisoners, who talk about extreme marginality and risk for victimization. This paper has two aims: (i) to develop a systematic method of analysis that accounts for signification as discourse-in-action; and (ii) to show how prisoners' signification of mental illness articulates agency through and against marginalizing discourse. Political discourse analysis demonstrates how control unit prisoners with psychiatric diagnoses signify mental illness, and articulate safer identifications in the process.

  11. Risk Analysis in Investment Appraisal

    OpenAIRE

    Savvides, Savvakis C.

    1994-01-01

    This paper was prepared for the purpose of presenting the methodology and uses of the Monte Carlo simulation technique as applied in the evaluation of investment projects to analyse and assess risk. The first part of the paper highlights the importance of risk analysis in investment appraisal. The second part presents the various stages in the application of the risk analysis process. The third part examines the interpretation of the results generated by a risk analysis application including ...

  12. After oil: Analysis of poetic projections into post-petroleum political ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper subjects a forty-three-line poem titled After Oil to critical analysis within the novel intellectual framework of “poetry and politics.” It focuses on the poem's projections into the political economy and environment of the Niger Delta at the inevitable exhaustion of the deposits of fossil fuel that is currently the mainstay of

  13. "Vergara v. State of California": A Political Analysis and Implications for Principal Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabron, Lolita A.; Irby, Beverly J.

    2015-01-01

    This political analysis uses the Vergara case as an example of how principals can be dynamic leaders who are well prepared for and engaged in their political terrain. This will be important to decrease judicial dependency and legislative interference to better ensure that reform begins with those closest to the problem.

  14. Political ideology and health in Japan: a disaggregated analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subramanian, S V; Hamano, Tsuyoshi; Perkins, Jessica M; Koyabu, Akio; Fujisawa, Yoshikazu

    2010-09-01

    Recent studies from the USA and Europe suggest an association between an individual's political ideology and their health status, with those claiming to be conservatives reporting better health. The presence of this association is examined in Japan. Individual-level data from the 2000-3, 2005 and 2006 Japan General Social Survey were analysed. The outcomes of interest were self-rated poor health and smoking status. The independent variable of interest was reported political beliefs on a 5-point 'left'-to-'right' scale. Covariates included age, sex, education, income, occupational status and fixed effects for survey periods. Logistic regression models were estimated. There was an inverse association between political ideology (left to right) and self-rated poor health as well as between ideology and smoking status even after adjusting for age, sex, socioeconomic status and fixed effects for survey periods. Compared with those who identified as 'left', the OR for reporting poor health and smoking among those who identified as 'right' was 0.86 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.99) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.91), respectively. Health differences by political ideology have typically been interpreted as reflecting socioeconomic differences. The results from Japan corroborate the previous findings from the USA and Europe that socioeconomic differences do not account for health differences by political ideologies. Political ideology is likely to be a marker of several latent values and attitudes (eg, religiosity, individual responsibility and/or community participation) that might be beneficial for health at the individual level.

  15. RISK ANALYSIS SERIES. PART ONE - WHY RISK ANALYSIS?

    OpenAIRE

    Iulian N. BUJOREANU

    2012-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to introduce the reader to the Risk Analysis Series to be developed in the pages of the Journal of Defense Resources Management. Risk analysis is of outmost importance in dealing with resource allocation and this is the reason the paper’s author started this series. Different views and approaches will be added during further discussion about risk analysis so that the reader develops a habit or skills of dealing with this intricate and challenging field.

  16. Political Role of Tribes : Analysis of Tribalism, Islamism and Gender ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The institution of the tribe continues to represent a major component of social structure throughout the Middle East, particularly in Iraq, Jordan and Yemen. ... groups (Shi'a, Sunni and Kurdish) unleashed by the ousting of Saddam Hussein's regime aggravated contests for control of the country and its political organization.

  17. International Conference on Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

  18. The Occupy Central (Umbrella) movement and mental health distress in the Hong Kong general public: political movements and concerns as potential structural risk factors of population mental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Joseph T F; Kim, Yoona; Wu, Anise M S; Wang, Zixin; Huang, Bishan; Mo, Phoenix K H

    2017-05-01

    Political tension, as expressed by mass movements such as the Occupy Central movement (2014) in Hong Kong, is a potential but understudied structural factor of population mental health. A random population-based telephone survey anonymously interviewed 344 Hong Kong Chinese adults aged 18-65 years during the 2 weeks since the termination date of the 2-month-long Occupy Central movement (15/12/2014). Linear regression models were fit using mental distress (depression, anxiety and negative mood) and self-perceived changes in mood/sleeping quality as dependent variables. Prevalence of participation in the movement was 10.5% (self), 17.7% (family members/relatives), and 34.0% (peers); 8.5% had participated for ≥2 days. Young age, but not participation, was associated with mental distress. In adjusted analysis, three types of responses to the movement (worry about safety, negative emotional responses to media reports, and conflicts with peers about the movement) and emotional responses to local political situations were significantly associated with all/some of the dependent variables related to mental distress. The variable on emotions toward local political situations was correlated with the three responses to the movement; it fully mediated the associations between such responses and mental distress. Many citizens participated in the movement, which was led by youths and might have increased the general public's mental distress. Negative personal responses to the movement and emotions toward political situations were potential risk factors. As the political tension would last and political pessimism is globally found, politics may have become a regular and persistent structural risk factor negatively affecting population mental health.

  19. Political Shocks and Abnormal Returns During the Taiwan Crisis: An Event Study Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Steeves, Geoffrey

    2002-01-01

    .... Focusing on the 1996 Taiwan Crisis, by means of event study analysis, this paper attempts to determine the extent to which this political shock affected the Taiwanese, and surrounding Japanese stock markets...

  20. Comparative analysis of India and China focused on the economic and political development

    OpenAIRE

    Krchnák, Peter

    2011-01-01

    1 Abstract This thesis provides an extensive comparative analysis of India and China. This analysis may be divided into two parts. The first one deals with the political development and the contemporary political situation in these countries, and the second one focuses on the economic development and the present state of the economy. The first part of the first chapter examines the political development of China. It is focused on the history in the 19th and the 20th century and it shows that ...

  1. Multidimensional Risk Analysis: MRISK

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCollum, Raymond; Brown, Douglas; O'Shea, Sarah Beth; Reith, William; Rabulan, Jennifer; Melrose, Graeme

    2015-01-01

    Multidimensional Risk (MRISK) calculates the combined multidimensional score using Mahalanobis distance. MRISK accounts for covariance between consequence dimensions, which de-conflicts the interdependencies of consequence dimensions, providing a clearer depiction of risks. Additionally, in the event the dimensions are not correlated, Mahalanobis distance reduces to Euclidean distance normalized by the variance and, therefore, represents the most flexible and optimal method to combine dimensions. MRISK is currently being used in NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project o assess risk and prioritize scarce resources.

  2. Political determinants of social expenditures in Greece: an empirical analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Canikalp, Ebru; Unlukaplan, Ilter

    2017-01-01

    A view prominently expounded is that the interaction between the composition and the volume of public expenditures is directly affected by political, institutional, psephological and ideological indicators. A crucial component of public expenditures, social expenditures play an important role in the economy as they directly and indirectly affect the distribution of income and wealth. Social expenditures aim at reallocating income and wealth unequal distribution. These expenditures comprise ca...

  3. Studying the Russian Arctic: the experience of political analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry P. Kondral

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The authors discuss the main directions of the political science study of the issues of development of northern regions of the country, the theoretical and applied research in the field of strategic management processes of spatial and territorial development of the North and the Russian Arctic. Key areas of political studies on the management of these processes are systematized and summarized, the main external and internal issues of the Arctic and subarctic regions of the country are analized, connected with the quality of the political process control systems of their spatial and social development. The mechanisms of accounting of interests of key actors in the North of Russia are investigated, recommendations for improving process of control mechanisms of spatial and social development of the northern regions of the country are given. The researchers specify the development of a new paradigm of considering the North and the Russian Arctic, involving the recognition of the value of the northern territories, not only as a resource base of the country, but mostly as social formations.

  4. Quantitative Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helms, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-02-10

    The US energy sector is vulnerable to multiple hazards including both natural disasters and malicious attacks from an intelligent adversary. The question that utility owners, operators and regulators face is how to prioritize their investments to mitigate the risks from a hazard that can have the most impact on the asset of interest. In order to be able to understand their risk landscape and develop a prioritized mitigation strategy, they must quantify risk in a consistent way across all hazards their asset is facing. Without being able to quantitatively measure risk, it is not possible to defensibly prioritize security investments or evaluate trade-offs between security and functionality. Development of a methodology that will consistently measure and quantify risk across different hazards is needed.

  5. Globalization: political and economic and sociological analysis of cultures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. S. Babicheva

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In the presented article the authors examine the political and economic and cultural situation in the world in the context of globalization. Special priority is accorded to the coverage of political and economic situation in the world. Because, the twentieth century has demonstrated the power of supranational military- political blocs, the possibility of coalitions of control groups, continental and regional associations, international organizations. At the end of the twentieth century, the contours of «world government» have outlined (world of the Board: some international organizations started performing important political integration functions. The value of the global division of labor has increased in the economic sphere, the role of transnational corporations has increased, which have become powerful forces in the world economy. Having lost the national roots, such corporations operate globally, using local resources and subsidies. The authors noted that the trend of globalization had its influence on the culture as well .Media unites peoples and continents , informing millions of people about the events in different parts of the world , attracting them to various cultural experiences , traditions and customs of exotic tribes and nationalities .Today, there is no doubt, that the desire to solve global problems that affect interests of the peoples of all continents leads to the formation of the world humanistic consciousness. It is proved that during a long period of time the phenomenon of globalization was considered in socio-political theories mainly from the point of economic centrism. As It is the economic sphere, in which the globalization centrism was mostly discovered. The basic classical concepts developed within the economic centrism: theory of imperialism, dependency theory, world system theory. It was marked that the presented economic-centric pictures of globalization cannot explain the cultural-historical diversity of the

  6. Country risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements

  7. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  8. Political priority of oral health in Italy: an analysis of reasons for national neglect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedetti, Guido; Stauf, Nicole; Strohmenger, Laura; Campus, Guglielmo; Benzian, Habib

    2015-04-01

    Oral health remains a neglected area and its political priority on most national agendas is low. This analysis aimed to identify the political priority of oral health in Italy. Italian public health services are decentralised at the regional level and are financed by both central and local authorities. Despite certain legally guaranteed public oral health services, access to oral health care seems to be inhomogeneous. Appraisal of the political priority of oral health in Italy uses the Political Power Framework as proposed by Shiffman and Smith. There is no clear mandate for leadership or coordination within the oral health sector, resulting in fragmentation and in dominance of the private sector. As a consequence, oral diseases are mainly addressed through a curative rather than a preventive public health approach. Current, systematic and representative data are lacking. Therefore, the real burden of oral diseases is unknown and thus cannot be addressed adequately. Evidence-based, cost-effective and sustainable population-wide public dental health interventions are not implemented on a large scale, and growing inequities in terms of access to care are not seen as a concern. Lack of relevant policies with a public health focus, absence of systematic oral health surveillance and limited access to care for large population groups are strong indicators that oral health is not a political priority. However, opportunities in the wider political environment could be used to facilitate analysis, discussion and change in order to improve political priority of oral health in Italy. © 2014 FDI World Dental Federation.

  9. Political priority of global oral health: an analysis of reasons for international neglect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benzian, Habib; Hobdell, Martin; Holmgren, Christopher; Yee, Robert; Monse, Bella; Barnard, Johannes T; van Palenstein Helderman, Wim

    2011-06-01

    Global Oral Health suffers from a lack of political attention, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This paper analyses the reasons for this political neglect through the lens of four areas of political power: the power of the ideas, the power of the issue, the power of the actors, and the power of the political context (using a modified Political Power Framework by Shiffman and Smith. Lancet370 [2007] 1370). The analysis reveals that political priority for global oral health is low, resulting from a set of complex issues deeply rooted in the current global oral health sector, its stakeholders and their remit, the lack of coherence and coalescence; as well as the lack of agreement on the problem, its portrayal and possible solutions. The shortcomings and weaknesses demonstrated in the analysis range from rather basic matters, such as defining the issue in an agreed way, to complex and multi-levelled issues concerning appropriate data collection and agreement on adequate solutions. The political priority of Global Oral Health can only be improved by addressing the underlying reasons that resulted in the wide disconnection between the international health discourse and the small sector of Global Oral Health. We hope that this analysis may serve as a starting point for a long overdue, broad and candid international analysis of political, social, cultural, communication, financial and other factors related to better prioritisation of oral health. Without such an analysis and the resulting concerted action the inequities in Global Oral Health will grow and increasingly impact on health systems, development and, most importantly, human lives. © 2011 FDI World Dental Federation.

  10. Political changes and trends in cardiovascular risk factors in the Czech Republic, 1985-92.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobak, M; Skodova, Z; Pisa, Z; Poledne, R; Marmot, M

    1997-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Mortality from cardiovascular diseases is substantially higher in central and eastern Europe than in the west. After the fall of communism, these countries have undergone radical changes in their political, social, and economic environments but little is known about the impact of these changes on health behaviours or risk factors. Data from the Czech Republic, a country whose mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases are among the highest, were analysed in this report. OBJECTIVES: To examine the trends in cardiovascular risk factors in Czech population over the last decade during which a major and sudden change of the political and social system occurred in 1989, and whether the trends differed in relation to age and educational group. DESIGN AND SETTING: Data from three cross sectional surveys conducted in 1985, 1988, and 1992 as a part of the MONICA project were analysed. The surveys examined random samples of men and women aged 25-64 in six Czech districts and measured the following risk factors: smoking, blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), and total and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol. RESULTS: The numbers of subjects (response rate) examined were 2573 (84%) in 1985, 2769 (87%) in 1988, and 2353 (73%) in 1992. Total cholesterol and body mass index increased between 1985 and 1988 and decreased between 1988 and 1992. The prevalence of smoking was declining slightly in men between 1985 and 1992 but remained stable in women. There were only small changes in blood pressure. The decline in cholesterol and BMI in 1988-92 may be related to changes in foods consumption after the price deregulation in 1991. An improvement in risk profile was more pronounced in younger age groups, and the declines in cholesterol and obesity were substantially larger in men and women with higher education. By contrast, there was an increase in smoking in women educated only to primary level. CONCLUSION: Substantial changes in cholesterol, obesity, and women

  11. RISK ANALYSIS SERIES. PART ONE - WHY RISK ANALYSIS?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulian N. BUJOREANU

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this paper is to introduce the reader to the Risk Analysis Series to be developed in the pages of the Journal of Defense Resources Management. Risk analysis is of outmost importance in dealing with resource allocation and this is the reason the paper’s author started this series. Different views and approaches will be added during further discussion about risk analysis so that the reader develops a habit or skills of dealing with this intricate and challenging field.

  12. Risk analysis and priority setting for environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1991-01-01

    There is a growing realization that the demand for funding to correct our nation's environmental problems will soon outstrip available resources. In the hazardous waste area alone, the estimated cost of remediating Superfund sites ranges from $32 billion to $80 billion. Numerous other areas of competing for these same financial resources. These include ozone depletion, global warming, the protection of endangered species and wetlands, toxic air pollution, carcinogenic pesticides, and urban smog. In response to this imbalance in the supply and demand for national funds, several political constituencies are calling for the use of risk assessment as a tool in the prioritization of research and budget needs. Comparative risk analysis offers a logical framework in which to organize information about complex environmental problems. Risk analysis allows policy analysts to make resource allocation decisions on the basis of scientific judgement rather than political expediency

  13. POLAND IN AND OUTSIDE THE EURO ZONE – RISKS AND BENEFITS IN THE LIGHT OF NEW POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Dobrowolski

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the benefits and risks of Poland adopting the euro in the light of current political and economic conditions. For this purpose, the following research methods were used: literature research, intuitive method and descriptive statistics. Poland has fulfilled the criteria for nominal convergence for two years, apart from participating in the ERM II mechanism, but the political situation in the country precludes the adoption of measures leading to the euro zone. The future shape of this zone is yet unknown, as its closer integration is planned. Theoretical analysis indicates that the process of globalization makes it difficult for medium-sized, open-economy countries to pursue autonomous monetary and exchange rate policy, so the loss of these instruments after the adoption of the euro should not jeopardize long-term economic growth, even in the case of asymmetric shocks. The market mechanisms of restoring the balance and fiscal policy may then be used. The economy will also benefit from the elimination of transaction costs and exchange rate risks in the euro zone. The analysis shows that it is possible to use the opportunity for faster GDP growth associated with the adoption of the common currency if the right economic policy is pursued. Adopting the euro may also incur costs. For banks it can be the loss of foreign exchange earnings and commissions on FX hedge transactions. For the economy it can be the possibility of speculative bubbles, as a result of excessive consumption growth, caused by possibly too low interest rates. Expected benefits should, however, outweigh any losses.

  14. Object Oriented Risk Analysis Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pons, M. Güell I.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2009-04-01

    In the framework of the RISET Project (Interfaculty Network of Support to Education and Technology) an educational tool for introducing risk analysis has been developed. This workshop enables to carry a group of students (role-play game) through a step-by-step process of risk identification and quantification. The aim is to assess risk in a characteristic alpine village regarding natural hazards (rockfall, snow avalanche, flooding…) and is oriented to affected objects such as buildings, infrastructures... The workshop contains the following steps: 1.- Planning of the study and definition of stakeholders 2.- Hazard identification 3.- Risk analysis 4.- Risk assessment 5.- Proposition of mitigation measures 6- Risk management and cost-benefit analysis. During the process, information related to past events and useful concepts are provided in order to bring up discussion and decision making. The Risk Matrix and other graphical tools allow having a visual representation of the risk level and help to prioritize counter measures. At the end of the workshop, there is the possibility to compare the results between different groups and print out a summarizing report. This approach provides a rapid and comprehensible risk evaluation. The workshop is accessible from the internet and will be used for educational purposes at bachelor and master level as well as for external persons dealing with risk analysis.

  15. The Two Faces of Security in Hybrid Political Orders: A Framework for Analysis and Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin Luckham

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper reframes the security and development debate through fresh theoretical lenses, which view security as highly contested both in the realm of politics and in the realm of ideas. For some analysts security concerns political power, including the use of organised force to establish and maintain social orders and to protect them from external and internal threats. For others it is about how individuals and communities are protected (or protect themselves from violence, abuse of power and other existential risks. We integrate both approaches whilst placing our focus on the deep tensions between them. Combining them is especially apposite in the hybrid political orders of conflict-torn regions in the developing world – where the state and its monopoly of violence are contested and diverse state and non-state security actors coexist, collaborate or compete. We ask what security in these hybrid contexts looks like from below, that is from the perspective of “end users”, be these citizens of states, members of local communities or those who are marginalised and insecure. What are their own vernacular understandings of security, and how do these understandings link to wider conceptions of citizen and of human security? Even when security and insecurity are experienced and decided locally, they are at the same time determined nationally and globally. It is at the interfaces between local agency, state power and global order that the most politically salient and analytically challenging issues tend to arise. To analyse these interfaces we focus on three interconnecting political spaces, each characterised by their own forms of hybridity, in which security is negotiated with end-users: (i “unsecured borderlands” where state authority is suspended or violently challenged by alternative claimants to power or providers of security, including non-state armed groups; (ii “contested Leviathans”, that is state security structures whose

  16. Gender violence, poverty and HIV infection risk among persons engaged in the sex industry: cross-national analysis of the political economy of sex markets in 30 European and Central Asian countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeves, A; Steele, S; Stuckler, D; McKee, M; Amato-Gauci, A; Semenza, J C

    2017-11-01

    Persons engaged in the sex industry are at greater risk of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections than the general population. One major factor is exposure to higher levels of risky sexual activity. Expanding condom use is a critical prevention strategy, but this requires negotiation with those buying sex, which takes place in the context of cultural and economic constraints. Impoverished individuals who fear violence are more likely to forego condoms. Here we tested the hypotheses that poverty and fear of violence are two structural drivers of HIV infection risk in the sex industry. Using data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and the World Bank for 30 countries, we evaluated poverty, measured using the average income per day per person in the bottom 40% of the income distribution, and gender violence, measured using homicide rates in women and the proportion of women exposed to violence in the last 12 months and/or since age 16 years. We found that HIV prevalence among those in the sex industry was higher in countries where there were greater female homicide rates (β = 0.86; P = 0.018) and there was some evidence that self-reported exposure to violence was also associated with higher HIV prevalence (β = 1.37; P = 0.043). Conversely, HIV prevalence was lower in countries where average incomes among the poorest were greater (β = -1.05; P = 0.046). Our results are consistent with the theory that reducing poverty and exposure to violence may help reduce HIV infection risk among persons engaged in the sex industry. © 2017 British HIV Association.

  17. Workshop One : Risk Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carlson, T.J.; Jong, C.A.F. de; Dekeling, R.P.A.

    2012-01-01

    The workshop looked at the assessment of risk to aquatic animals exposed to anthropogenic sound. The discussion focused on marine mammals given the worldwide attention being paid to them at the present time, particularly in relationship to oil and gas exploration, ocean power, and increases in ship

  18. Economic, Socio-Political and Environmental Risks of Road Development in the Tropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alamgir, Mohammed; Campbell, Mason J; Sloan, Sean; Goosem, Miriam; Clements, Gopalasamy Reuben; Mahmoud, Mahmoud I; Laurance, William F

    2017-10-23

    It is projected that 25 million km of new paved roads will be developed globally by 2050 - enough to encircle the planet more than 600 times. Roughly 90% of new roads will be built in developing nations, frequently in tropical and subtropical regions with high biodiversity and environmental values. Many developing nations are borrowing from international lenders or negotiating access to their natural resources in order to expand their transportation infrastructure. Given the unprecedented pace and extent of these initiatives, it is vital to thoroughly assess the potential consequences of large-scale road and highway projects. In appropriate contexts and locales, new roads can promote sizeable economic and social benefits. If poorly planned or implemented, however, new roads can provoke serious cost overruns, corruption and environmental impacts, while generating sparse economic benefits and intense social and political conflict. Using examples from developing nations, we identify risks that can hinder road projects in wet and dry tropical environments. Such risks, we assert, are often inadequately considered by project proponents, evaluators and the general public, creating a systematic tendency to overestimate project benefits while understating project risks. A more precautionary approach is needed to reduce risks while maximizing benefits of new road projects in the tropics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. The pharmaceuticalization of sexual risk: vaccine development and the new politics of cancer prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamo, Laura; Epstein, Steven

    2014-01-01

    Vaccine development is a core component of pharmaceutical industry activity and a key site for studying pharmaceuticalization processes. In recent decades, two so-called cancer vaccines have entered the U.S. medical marketplace: a vaccine targeting hepatitis B virus (HBV) to prevent liver cancers and a vaccine targeting human papillomavirus (HPV) to prevent cervical and other cancers. These viruses are two of six sexually transmissible infectious agents (STIs) that are causally linked to the development of cancers; collectively they reference an expanding approach to apprehending cancer that focuses attention simultaneously "inward" toward biomolecular processes and "outward" toward risk behaviors, sexual practices, and lifestyles. This paper juxtaposes the cases of HBV and HPV and their vaccine trajectories to analyze how vaccines, like pharmaceuticals more generally, are emblematic of contemporary pharmaceuticalization processes. We argue that individualized risk, in this case sexual risk, is produced and treated by scientific claims of links between STIs and cancers and through pharmaceutical company and biomedical practices. Simultaneous processes of sexualization and pharmaceuticalization mark these cases. Our comparison demonstrates that these processes are not uniform, and that the production of risks, subjects, and bodies depends not only on the specificities of vaccine development but also on the broader political and cultural frames within which sexuality is understood. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. A public health framework to translate risk factors related to political violence and war into multi-level preventive interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Jong, Joop T V M

    2010-01-01

    Political violence, armed conflicts and human rights violations are produced by a variety of political, economic and socio-cultural factors. Conflicts can be analyzed with an interdisciplinary approach to obtain a global understanding of the relative contribution of risk and protective factors. A public health framework was designed to address these risk factors and protective factors. The framework resulted in a matrix that combined primary, secondary and tertiary interventions with their implementation on the levels of the society-at-large, the community, and the family and individual. Subsequently, the risk and protective factors were translated into multi-sectoral, multi-modal and multi-level preventive interventions involving the economy, governance, diplomacy, the military, human rights, agriculture, health, and education. Then the interventions were slotted in their appropriate place in the matrix. The interventions can be applied in an integrative form by international agencies, governments and non-governmental organizations, and molded to meet the requirements of the historic, political-economic and socio-cultural context. The framework maps the complementary fit among the different actors while engaging themselves in preventive, rehabilitative and reconstructive interventions. The framework shows how the economic, diplomatic, political, criminal justice, human rights, military, health and rural development sectors can collaborate to promote peace or prevent the aggravation or continuation of violence. A deeper understanding of the association between risk and protective factors and the developmental pathways of generic, country-specific and culture-specific factors leading to political violence is needed.

  1. Campylobacter Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    In several countries quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) have been performed for Campylobacter in chicken meat. The models constructed for this purpose provide a good example of the development of QMRA in general and illustrate the diversity of available methods. Despite...... the differences between the models, the most prominent conclusions of the QMRAs are similar. These conclusions for example relate to the large risk of highly contaminated meat products and the insignificance of contamination from Campylobacter positive flocks to negative flocks during slaughter and processing....... Nonetheless, there seems to be a discrepancy between model predictions and the accumulating microbiological data. For example, a recent study in the Netherlands showed that model predictions on the efficacy of “testing and scheduling” of broiler flocks as a control strategy, could not be confirmed...

  2. Planning analysis and political steering with New Public Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sager, Tore Øivin; Sørensen, Claus Hedegaard

    2011-01-01

    of interviews sheds light on the apparent paradox that parliamentarians accept delegation of highway investment decisions despite their profound scepticism to the cost-benefit analyses and impact calculations that are essential to management by objectives and results, which was to give them continued political......Interviews with members of the Norwegian national assembly’s Standing Committee for Transport and Communications were conducted in 1995, 1997, 2001, and 2004. The politicians were asked about the usefulness of analytic input that planners contribute to national plans, first the Norwegian Road...... and Road Traffic Plan and later the National Transport Plan. Questions related to steering, coordination, delegation, and the inclusiveness of the planning process were also posed. Changes in the politicians’ attitudes to types of analytic planning input are outlined. Furthermore, the last round...

  3. Analysis of the corporate political activity of major food industry actors in Fiji.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mialon, Melissa; Swinburn, Boyd; Wate, Jillian; Tukana, Isimeli; Sacks, Gary

    2016-05-10

    Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of mortality in Fiji, a middle-income country in the Pacific. Some food products processed sold and marketed by the food industry are major contributors to the NCD epidemic, and the food industry is widely identified as having strong economic and political power. However, little research has been undertaken on the attempts by the food industry to influence public health-related policies and programs in its favour. The "corporate political activity" (CPA) of the food industry includes six strategies (information and messaging; financial incentives; constituency building; legal strategies; policy substitution; opposition fragmentation and destabilisation). For this study, we aimed to gain a detailed understanding of the CPA strategies and practices of major food industry actors in Fiji, interpreted through a public health lens. We implemented a systematic approach to monitor the CPA of the food industry in Fiji for three months. It consisted of document analysis of relevant publicly available information. In parallel, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 10 stakeholders involved in diet- and/or public health-related issues in Fiji. Both components of the study were thematically analysed. We found evidence that the food industry adopted a diverse range of strategies in an attempt to influence public policy in Fiji, with all six CPA strategies identified. Participants identified that there is a substantial risk that the widespread CPA of the food industry could undermine efforts to address NCDs in Fiji. Despite limited public disclosure of information, such as data related to food industry donations to political parties and lobbying, we were able to identify many CPA practices used by the food industry in Fiji. Greater transparency from the food industry and the government would help strengthen efforts to increase their accountability and support NCD prevention. In other low- and middle-income countries, it

  4. Socio-political analysis of the causes of indebtedness if citizens

    OpenAIRE

    Bartesová, Gabriela

    2016-01-01

    Rigorózní práce Socio-political analysis of the causes of indebtedness of citizens OVERVIEW The thesis "Socio-political analysis of the causes of indebtedness of citizens" consists of a detailed analysis of issues leading up to over-indebtedness. It also aims to point out the most serious consequences of over-indebtedness. The thesis brings attention to the relation between causes and effects which, in many cases, take the form of the opposite and vice versa. The boundary between cause and ef...

  5. Introduction of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campon, G.; Martinez, I.

    2013-01-01

    An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

  6. Quantitative Hazard and Risk Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Geza Tarnai; Balazs Saghi; Izabela Krbilova

    2006-01-01

    In this paper a quantitative method for hazard and risk analysis is discussed. The method was developed and introduced for the allocation of safety requirements to the functions of a railway signaling remote control system.

  7. Adult Development Theory and Political Analysis: An Integral Account of Social and Political Change in Soviet and Post-Soviet Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elke Fein

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available I propose a reading of social, political and discursive change in Soviet and post-Soviet Russia which is inspired by an integral, above all developmental perspective. In view of explaining Russia’s current political trajectory, I make several arguments. First, I claim that Russian politics are still to a large extent determined by the effects of a threefold crisis of sense-making. Neither the collapse of the Soviet empire, nor the question of how to define democratic government nor the lack of a resilient national identity have so far been resolved and re-appropriated in a transformative manner. Second, I try to show how this affects various aspects and dimensions of Russian politics. Third, I engage in a brief overview of a number of adult development models, asking to what extent and how the characteristics of consciousness development, particular stage characteristics, and the general logics and dynamics of successful and unsuccessful development these models describe can be helpful to the analysis of Russian politics. Also, I discuss their compatibility and parallels with discourse theory and analysis as an increasingly popular methodology in Russian Studies. Of the developmental models reviewed, the theory of political development by Stephen Chilton and the self-protective action logic in Susanne Cook-Greuter’s model of self and identity development are particularly relevant for my purpose. On these grounds, it is argued that since Vladimir Putin’s taking office as Russian president and later prime-minister, politics and (official political discourse have increasingly come to follow self-protective action logics as conceived by Susanne Cook-Greuter. This diagnosis, which could either be understood as a regression or as a realignment of internal and external dimensions of political development, can be explained as a reaction to Russia’s crisis of identity followed by a loss of internal stability and international influence connected

  8. Theory and methodology of social, political and economic processes risks determining in different countries of the world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yashina Nadezhda, I.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The study deals with the problems of the theory and methodology of social, political and economic processes risks in different countries with relative indicators of the socio-economic development level, as well as the size and condition of the public debt. Developed by the authors the methodology of determining the risks of social, political and economic processes of public policy around the world revealed close relationship between socio-economic situation of the countries and their public debt. Within the framework of this methodology two groups of factors characterizing the socio-political and economic processes in the country are being developed. After that each exponent and indicator are being processed, using expert procedures. Maximum statutory values for tentatively referenced countries with effective and ineffective government policies are identified. Then standardization (specification and definition of integral (generalized indexes of socio-political and economic processes in the country are taking place. After that the ranking of countries by aggregated standardized ratio is arranged, taking into account the significance of the developed indicators. The final phase of implementation methodology is identifying risks of social, political and economic processes of public policy around the world. This is the ranking of countries by ratio of stability in public policy (stability of economic and socio-political processes in the country. As the result of implementation methodology the following output was received: what really makes a difference is not the amount of the country's debt, but how effectively it manages this debt, whether it has a goal to improve social and economic indicators. Practical testing methodology has proven that studied indicators fully characterize the development of the countries, their political, social and economic situation on the world stage.

  9. Tackling inequalities in political socialisation: A systematic analysis of access to and mitigation effects of learning citizenship at school.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoskins, Bryony; Janmaat, Jan Germen; Melis, Gabriella

    2017-11-01

    This article tackles the issue of social inequalities in voting and identifies how and when differences in learning political engagement are influenced by social background in the school environment between the ages of 11-16 in England. Using Latent Growth Curve Modelling and Regression Analysis on the Citizenship Education Longitudinal (CELS) data this research identifies two elements that influence the political socialisation process: access to political learning and effectiveness in the form of learning in reducing inequalities in political engagement. The results show that there is unequal access by social background to learning political engagement through political activities in school and through an open classroom climate for discussion. However, there is equal access by social background to Citizenship Education in schools and this method of learning political engagement is effective at the age of 15-16 in reducing inequalities in political engagement. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. A FIELD RESEARCH ON THE ANALYSIS OF VOTERS POLITICAL TRUST PERCEPTIONS AS A MARKETING TOOL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet TAN

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The developments in the culture of democracy have led to shaping of activities in politics and political parties from a marketing point of view. Therefore the concept of political marketing has become a new field of study both for academicians and professionals. The aim of this study is to investigate whether demographic and socio-cultural characteristics of voters differed in their perceptions of political trust. The data, which collected through face-to-face surveys conducted with 574 participants, were analyzed statistically using SPSS package program. According to the analysis results, hypotheses which argue that the confidence variable, which is one of the three factors that constitute the trust perceptions of voters, differs according to age groups, education levels, professional groups and political views were accepted. Also hypotheses which argue that ‘doing non-political works’ variable that is another factor, differs according to education levels, income levels, and occupational groups were accepted, while the other hypotheses were rejected. The communication variable did not differ in term of any characteristic of the participants.  Given the limited work on this topic, the findings of the research which were conceptually in accordance with the previous results, show that this study has made considerable contributions to the literature.

  11. Interfaith Groups as Mediating Structures for Political Action: A Multilevel Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd, Nathan R; Boeh, Brett A; Houston-Kolnik, Jaclyn D; Suffrin, Rachael L

    2017-03-01

    This study investigates interfaith groups from across the United States to understand how these religious settings may serve as mediating structures to facilitate individual political action. Based on a multilevel modeling analysis with 169 individuals from 25 interfaith groups, we found that core activities of the group, such as group members sharing community information (e.g., announcing upcoming events, political meetings, community issues) or sharing religious information (e.g., educating members about their religion) positively and negatively predicted individual political action as a result of group participation, respectively. Moreover, a sense that the interfaith group served as a community to work for local change, but not trust within the group, predicted political action as a result of group participation. However, this effect for a sense the group served as a community to work for local change was stronger and more positive as the degree of community information sharing in the group increased. These results show that a core activity of sharing community information may enhance the ability of a group to mediate political action. Overall, these findings demonstrate the potential role of interfaith groups to mediate political action, and show the importance of considering both individual and group characteristics when understanding these religious settings. Limitations and directions for future research are also discussed. © Society for Community Research and Action 2017.

  12. SRP meeting: social and political implications of communicating radiation risk, Daresbury, Warrington, 20 June 2001

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davies, Karen

    2001-12-01

    The SRP held a very interesting meeting in June at the Daresbury Laboratory in Warrington on the social and political implications of communicating radiation risk. In today's risk-aware society, effective communication is just as important as the control measures introduced to prevent or restrict exposure. In relation to radiation protection, risk communicators had a hard job because of: Public dread Likelihood of risk intensification Perceived inequitable distribution of risks. The higher the uncertainty, the more wary people were likely to be. Julie cited the International Nuclear Events Scale (INES) as a possible tool for promoting a consistent message across all publics. This was because it aimed to put events into proper perspective and provide a common understanding amongst the nuclear community, the media and the public. Julie summed up by saying that the risk communication was not just any form of communication and the issue of communicating radiation risks involved special consideration. Further research established that the more information given to the local population, the more likely that they would deny that there was a problem. Denial could moderate beliefs or emotional reactions to a situation. This then affected their dose as they were more likely to adopt risky behaviour by eating contaminated food and entering contaminated areas. Avoiding the need to undertake safe behaviour reduced stress levels. Furthermore, people adopted beliefs to suit their situation. For example, some inhabitants of the affected areas became adapted to the radiation and actually felt worse outside the contaminated area. There was strong pressure for the maintenance of a situation which actually prevented appropriate precautions being taken. Peter concluded that there was often confusion over the details of technical information that sometimes might not help to prevent a course of action being taken. However on a positive note the research did find credence and

  13. Parsing, semantic networks, and political authority using syntactic analysis to extract semantic relations from Dutch newspaper articles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Atteveldt, W.H.; Kleinnijenhuis, J.; Ruigrok, N.

    2008-01-01

    Analysis of political communication is an important aspect of political research. Thematic content analysis has yielded considerable success both with manual and automatic coding, but Semantic Network Analysis has proven more difficult, both for humans and for the computer. This article presents a

  14. Political priority of oral health in India: analysis of the reasons for neglect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janakiram, Chandrashekar; Sanjeevan, Vinita; Br, Rajeev; Joseph, Joe; Stauf, Nicole; Benzian, Habib

    2017-10-30

    To examine the political priority of oral health in India and to understand the underlying reasons for the political support oral health receives. The analysis is based on the political power framework developed by Shiffman and Smith and modified by Benzian et al. to examine the factors that contribute to the political priority of oral health in India. The framework comprises four main analysis categories, further subdivided into 11 dimensions. Based on the set of criteria, each dimension was analyzed and rated by assigning a score to assess to what extend the criteria were met. There is a good understanding on what defines an oral health problem, however, there is no consolidated and comprehensive approach to address oral diseases. Despite India's efforts to improve oral health-related research, its poor utilization in terms of public health and population-based approaches is apparent. The absence of a national surveillance system for oral health masks the severity and extent of the oral disease burden and limits the basis for advocacy on improving oral health to health decision makers. The fragmentation of actors and institutions and the absence of leaders uniting various actors in oral public health impede changes toward improving the oral health status of the population. Limited accessibility to oral health care, poor portrayals of the severity and extent of the burden, and inertia to address-related challenges are important factors contributing to the low political priority of oral health. © 2017 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

  15. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies the eff...

  16. THE POLITICS OF THE NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA TO DEAL WITH CREDITING RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vechiu Camelia

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The market economy refers to the implicit presence of a banking system which could ensure the mobilization of all the monetary resources of the respective economy and their temporary orientation towards the development of efficient economic activities. A significant aspect of the bank performance refers to the measurement of risks with the aim to diminish them. If the bank management is poor and the risks are not taken into consideration, it will be possible that the earning capacity to be reduced and to lead even to the bankruptcy. Due to the fact that the banks are lending, they assume risks which are determined by the doubtful debtor (it appears the insolvency, or by the general economic evolution (which involves interest and exchange rate risks, or by the financial structure of the bank (financing long-term credits from short or sight deposits. The bank risk can be determined by external or internal factors of the bank due to the competitive environment. In the professional literature, the methodology used for the risk management involves several steps: the risk identification and analysis; the risk elimination and control; the risk assessment and assuming; the risk financing by debiting the general or specific reserves or by transfer which means the insurance of the bank company. For those banks operating in Romania, the risks are even more evident due to the hostile environment in which they operate, but also due to the specificity of the Romanian banking system which is still evolving and adapting to the competitive stringencies of the market economy. This paper is trying to follow the risk involvement towards the bank activity taking into account its importance and role in order to ensure the increase of the bank earning capacity.

  17. Making sense of climate change risks and responses at the community level: A cultural-political lens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ainka A. Granderson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available How to better assess, communicate and respond to risks from climate change at the community level have emerged as key questions within climate risk management. Recent research to address these questions centres largely on psychological factors, exploring how cognition and emotion lead to biases in risk assessment. Yet, making sense of climate change and its responses at the community level demands attention to the cultural and political processes that shape how risk is conceived, prioritized and managed. I review the emergent literature on risk perceptions and responses to climate change using a cultural-political lens. This lens highlights how knowledge, meaning and power are produced and negotiated across multiple stakeholders at the community level. It draws attention to the different ways of constructing climate change risks and suggests an array of responses at the community level. It further illustrates how different constructions of risk intersect with agency and power to shape the capacity for response and collective action. What matters are whose constructions of risk, and whose responses, count in decision-making. I argue for greater engagement with the interpretive social sciences in research, practice and policy. The interpretive social sciences offer theories and tools for capturing and problematising the ways of knowing, sense-making and mobilising around risks from climate change. I also highlight the importance of participatory approaches in incorporating the multiplicity of interests at the community level into climate risk management in fair, transparent and culturally appropriate ways.

  18. Evolution of Scales and Levels of Islam and Politics Analysis in Post-Soviet Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirzakhanov Dzhabrail Gasanovich

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article studies the basic and complicated evolution of different approaches for investigating Russian post-Soviet Islamic transformation. The authors describe the logic and dynamic of scrutinizing such kind of problems as Islamic consciousness and Muslim institutes, relationships between Islam and ethnic political develoments, forms and manifestations of Islamic fundamentalism. In an effort to identify and assess the signs of post-Soviet Islamic revival, the Russian academic community has obviously been driven to despair. Especially since the tragedy of 9/11/2001 as a source of studying Islam as an evasive object. The main goal of this paper is the methodological innovation which consists in multilayered approach. The authors argue that changes of parameters and structure of post-Soviet policy is reflected in the change of format and unities of analysis. The paper examines the character of academic discussion about different understanding of such political phenomena as politization of Islam as well as bordering Islam in terms of multi-level methodology. This methodology could be able to clarify very complicated Islamic features: socio-territorial organization, communication, and the reproduction channels. It alone will help us explain changing Islam as a social and political enigma. In this paper the authors have correctly identified the phenomenon of Muslim regionalization as a situation under which the Islamic leaders concentrate on religious development at the local level. It is not the authors’ aim to discuss the forms of Islamic existence and its religious-teaching component. The authors favor the wider approach typical of political science in which there is a component of Islamic studies. This analysis has demonstrated that the multi-layered approach to Islam, which identifies its viable segments, has a considerable heuristic potential. This approach helps to understand the inner dynamics of the Islamic development as a complex

  19. 'When you use the term 'long term', how long is that term'. Risk, Exclusion, and the Politics of Knowledge Production in Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste Management Policy Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stanley, Anna

    2006-01-01

    Risk operates within Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste (NFW) management policy making as a heuristic for knowledge production about its effects which reconciles the knowledge of the nuclear industry with the outcomes of the NFW management process. In so doing it marginalizes the present and historical experiences of Aboriginal peoples with the nuclear industry, and removes from view the ways in which they have been implicated in the geography and political economy of the nuclear industry. Risk is a discursive form that protects a particular group's claims about the effects of NFW by providing it a universalizing epistemological structure with which to obscure its connection to context. Further risk discourse provides the nuclear industry with a conceptual vocabulary that deliberately casts all competing knowledge as perceptions, values, or as an object of inquiry. The arguments of Aboriginal peoples about the residual effects of radiation in their lands which hosted nuclear activities, such as uranium mining and disposal, have no representation in how the discourse of risk defines and represents knowledge, and thus no purchase in the policy debate. As a result the challenge they present to the nuclear industry's claims are contained. The arrangements which permit the unloading of the negative effects of nuclear power generation onto Aboriginal peoples are thus reproduced (both materially and conceptually), but not shown, by the policy making process and likely, its outcome. In order to raise critical questions about the democratic abilities of risk, this paper has examined the role of 'risk' in Canadian NFW policy making. I have shown how when the politics of knowledge production within the philosophy of risk is analyzed, and the use and role of the notion of risk are interrogated, difficult questions are posed for the democratic potential of risk. I have suggested, through an analysis of the NWMO's representations of Aboriginal content in their process, that in this

  20. How reliable is pooled analysis in political economy? : the globalization-welfare state nexus revisited.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kittel, B.E.A.; Winner, H.

    2002-01-01

    Panel data analysis has become very popular in comparative political economy. However, in order to draw meaningful inferences from such data, one has to address specification and estimation issues carefully. This paper aims to demonstrate various pitfalls that typically occur in applied empirical

  1. Critical Discourse Analysis of Martin Luther King's Speech in Socio-Political Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sipra, Muhammad Aslam; Rashid, Athar

    2013-01-01

    The article presents the Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) of the first part of King Martin Luther's speech "When I Have a Dream" in socio-political context. The study investigates how it lies on the basis of application of Fairclough version of CDA in the first part of the text. Moreover, it explicates the terms like social, cultural…

  2. Political Cartoons and Salient Rhetorical Fantasies: An Empirical Analysis of the '76 Presidential Campaign.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bormann, Ernest G.; And Others

    1978-01-01

    A Q-analysis of cartoons published during the 1976 presidential campaign provides evidence of the complex patterns of shared fantasies among various types of voters, and the relationships between these fantasies and those dramatized by various groups during the political campaign. (JMF)

  3. A decade of discourse analysis of environmental politics : achievements, challenges, perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hajer, M.; Versteeg, W.

    2005-01-01

    This article assesses the contribution of discourse analysis to the study of environmental politics over the period of the past decade. Defining discourse as a particular linguistic regularity that can be found in conversations distinguishes it from ‘deliberation’ and ‘discussion’. Discourse

  4. Political Protest Songs and Actual Protest Values: Analysis of Fela's ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    , Tears and Blood and Bob Marley's Stand up, Get up, using in-depth analysis of the songs' lyrics plus opinion survey of their listeners. Finding is that the actual protest values of the two songs are high in meditation upon protest problem and ...

  5. Analysis of Socio-Political Implication of Infrastructural Decay in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There is no gain saying the fact that adequacy of functional infrastructure is necessary for a growing economy like that of Nigeria. The state of this decay has become so bad that analysis carried on the ratio of „functional infrastructure‟ to the need for it by both the individual and the corporate bodies revealed that it is grossly ...

  6. Analysis of the European union’s supranationalism crisis within the political-institutional paradigm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. V. Bashtannyk

    2014-04-01

    So, the same logic of integration policy has caused deferred manifestation of the contradictions that have not been resolved by the development of such a grand united project. It is determined that the investigation of this problem is possible by applying methodological tools of historical institutionalism within political­institutional paradigm of political science. In such kind of analysis it becomes possible to conduct qualitative research and perspective political component of European integration phenomenon’s nature. Economic crisis was the challenge for those unifying international institutions that were considered “post­national polity” and whose institutional framework seemed never shaken. This proves once again that it is impossible to cancel on the willful way the influence of the historical patterns in principle and “path dependence” in particular.

  7. Barack Obama – the new charismatic political actor - a discourse analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ada-Maria Țîrlea

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The American president, Barack Obama, is considered to be one of the most charismatic figures of the 21st century. His speeches are the best asset through which he emphasizes this quality. Although, he hasn’t always been considered to be a successful politician, he made his entrance on the political arena in 2004, when he delivered one of his best speeches. The aim of this paper is to reveal the most important elements of a political discourse that can contribute to creating a good image of a political actor. Using the critical discourse analysis method, we are trying to see if there is a connection between a good, coherent discourse strategy and the charisma of the American leader. The sample will include his 2004 speech, delivered at the Democrats’ Convention, the speech that put him in the eyes of the media as a future American leader.

  8. Review of Janet Holmes and Maria Stubbe: Power and Politeness in the Workplace: A Sociolinguistic Analysis of Talk at Work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lønsmann, Dorte

    2015-01-01

    Review of: Janet Holmes and Maria Stubbe: Power and Politeness in the Workplace. A Sociolinguistic Analysis of Talk at Work. Second edition. London: Routledge, 2015, xv + 200 pp.......Review of: Janet Holmes and Maria Stubbe: Power and Politeness in the Workplace. A Sociolinguistic Analysis of Talk at Work. Second edition. London: Routledge, 2015, xv + 200 pp....

  9. Problem-Based Teaching in International Management: A Political/Economic Risk Assessment Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Paula S.; White, Marion M.; Zisk, Daniel S.; Cavazos, David E.

    2013-01-01

    This article draws from the current literature to examine problem-based learning (PBL) as a management education tool, and provides an example of how to incorporate PBL into an undergraduate international management course. Also included are an explanation of, and specific guidelines for, a PBL exercise focused on the analysis of "country risk"…

  10. Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

  11. Risk, risk conflicts, sub-politics and social and environmental accounting and accountability in Scottish salmon farming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Georgakopoulos, G.; Thomson, I.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose To offer a theoretical analysis, inspired by contemporary research into risk, of the social and environmental accounting processes observed in an empirical study on Scottish salmon farming. Methodology / Approach This paper used a Grounded Theory approach. Empirical evidence was collected on

  12. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available This report is submitted as a deliverable of the SRP project Global Change Risk Analysis which aims at applying risk analysis as a unifying notion for quantifying and communicating threats to ecosystem services originating from global change...

  13. Intelligent Adversary Risk Analysis: A Bioterrorism Risk Management Model (PREPRINT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-02-20

    Society for Risk Analysis, February 20, 2009    1. INTELLIGENT ADVERSARY RISK  ANALISIS  IS DIFFERENT THAN  HAZARD RISK ANALYSIS  Risk analysis has...future work and our conclusions. 1.1. Intelligent adversary risk analysis requires new approaches We believe that risk analysis of uncertain hazards...public panic and social disruption; and require special action for public health preparedness. B to Second highest priority agents include those

  14. Storylines of progress and ambivalence : A discourse analysis of the Swedish parliamentary debate on mineral politics 1990-2015

    OpenAIRE

    Envall, Fredrik

    2015-01-01

    As the mineral politics are filled with complex questions and connected to key challenges of our time, this paper sets out to analyze the worldviews and conceptualizations, or discourses, inherent in the Swedish plenary debate on mineral politics. The research approach is thus constructivist. The paper takes the year 1990 as its starting point as the Swedish mineral politics underwent radical changes during the early 1990s. The discourse analysis is inspired by John Dryzek, Norman Fairclough ...

  15. Knowledge Management and Politics at the Highest Level: An Exploratory Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo TOMÉ

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses Knowledge Management (KM as a political activity, made by the great political leaders of the world. We try to examine if at the macro political level KM is made, and how. The research is interesting because given that we live in a Knowledge Society, in the Information Era, it is more or less obvious that the political leaders should also do KM. However we don’t know of any previous study on KM and world leaders and this paper wants to be a first step to fill that gap. As a methodology we use literature review: given this one is a first preliminary study we use data we found online and in databases like EBSCO. We divide the analysis in two main parts: theoretical ideas, and application. In the theoretical part we aim at distinguishing KM as made by managers from KM made by politicians. The second part is itself divided in two segments: the past and the present times; in the second segment we illustrate our ideas with the example of President Barack Obama. We observe, rather surprisingly, how much it has been over-looked by scholars; KM always was and nowadays is pervasive in the activity of the world political leaders. Furthermore, the importance of KM made by world political leaders is so great that it should prompt the making of detailed studies in order to improve the world governance. The study has the limitation of relying on documents, insights and texts, and not on interviews. It should be followed by studies of a more qualitative and participative nature. We believe it would be very interesting to make such studies and that they would help improving the democracies in the 21st century and beyond.

  16. Government, politics and health policy: A quantitative analysis of 30 European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackenbach, Johan P; McKee, Martin

    2015-10-01

    Public health policies are often dependent on political decision-making, but little is known of the impact of different forms of government on countries' health policies. In this exploratory study we studied the association between a wide range of process and outcome indicators of health policy and four groups of political factors (levels of democracy, e.g. voice and accountability; political representation, e.g. voter turnout; distribution of power, e.g. constraints on the executive; and quality of government, e.g. absence of corruption) in contemporary Europe. Data on 15 aspects of government and 18 indicators of health policy as well as on potential confounders were extracted from harmonized international data sources, covering 30 European countries and the years 1990-2010. In a first step, multivariate regression analysis was used to relate cumulative measures of government to indicators of health policy, and in a second step panel regression with country fixed effects was used to relate changes in selected measures of government to changes in indicators of health policy. In multivariate regression analyses, measures of quality of democracy and quality of government had many positive associations with process and outcome indicators of health policy, while measures of distribution of power and political representation had few and inconsistent associations. Associations for quality of democracy were robust against more extensive control for confounding variables, including tests in panel regressions with country fixed effects, but associations for quality of government were not. In this period in Europe, the predominant political influence on health policy has been the rise of levels of democracy in countries in the Central & Eastern part of the region. In contrast to other areas of public policy, health policy does not appear to be strongly influenced by institutional features of democracy determining the distribution of power, nor by aspects of political

  17. Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aral, M. M

    2010-01-01

    ... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

  18. Collision Risk Analysis for HSC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urban, Jesper; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    1999-01-01

    conventional ships. To reach a documented level of safety, it is therefore not possible directly to transfer experience with conventional ships. The purpose of this paper is to present new rational scientific tools to assess and quantify the collision risk associated with HSC transportation. The paper...... analysis tools to quantify the effect of the high speed have been available. Instead nearly all research on ship accidents has been devoted to analysis of the consequences of given accident scenarios. The proposed collision analysis includes an analysis which determines the probability of a collision...... for a HSC on a given route, an analysis of the released energy during a collision, analytical closed form solutions for the absorbed energy in the structure and finally an assessment of the overall structural crushing behaviour of the vessel, including the level of acceleration and the size of the crushing...

  19. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  20. The impact of managerial political ties on cost of debt and institutional risk exposure: evidence from Ghana

    OpenAIRE

    Liedong, Tahiru Azaaviele

    2016-01-01

    This thesis integrates social capital and institutional theories with corporate governance insights to explore the impact of managerial political ties on access to finance, cost of debt and institutional risk exposure. Drawing on an extensive and rigorous assessment of the literature, using a unique set of survey data from 179 firms operating in Ghana, and employing robust analytical techniques, this thesis comprises three interrelated empirical studies which make significant contributions to...

  1. Online Social Systems, Social Actions, and Politics: A Narrative Analysis of the Role of Social Media in Revolutionary Political Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maghrabi, Rozan Omar

    2017-01-01

    One of the demonstrators during the 2011 Egyptian revolution tweeted "We use Facebook to schedule the protests, Twitter to coordinate, and YouTube to tell the world," thus acknowledging and establishing the fundamental role of social media in the political unrest and revolution against the regime in Egypt. Information Systems (IS) have…

  2. Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2011-01-01

    Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

  3. Uncertainty in the process of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lovecek, Tomas; Kampova, Katarina

    2009-01-01

    In the risk analysis we are often trying to describe and assess various quantities, which express the surrounding risk environment and in this way influence its existence and size. In connection with quantifying these risk factors we come across the problem of uncertainty, which rests in the fact that the values of these factors are unknown at the time of analysis and in this way they make the process of risk analysis complicated. In the presented article we deal with the interconnections of this uncertainly as well as with the possibilities of its interpretation and quantification in the risk analysis process. Key words: Risk, Risk Analysis, Uncertainty, Numerical Methods, Exact Methods

  4. Time for behavioral political economy? An analysis of articles in behavioral economics

    OpenAIRE

    Berggren, Niclas

    2011-01-01

    This study analyzes leading research in behavioral economics to see whether it contains advocacy of paternalism and whether it addresses the potential cognitive limitations and biases of the policymakers who are going to implement paternalist policies. The findings reveal that 20.7% of the studied articles in behavioral economics propose paternalist policy action and that 95.5% of these do not contain any analysis of the cognitive ability of policymakers. This suggests that behavioral politic...

  5. Political symbols and political transitions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herrero de Miñón, Miguel

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Politics, Law and Psychology are fields that come together in the symbolic. This text takes evidence from those three areas to develop an analysis of political symbols and political transitions. The development of the analysis goes through three stages. The first succinctly describes the concept of transition and its meaning. The second closely examines the notion of the symbol, in terms of its definition, to explain aspects that allow us to understand it, characterise it and make its functions clear. Finally, from the author's experience as a witness and as an actor, I suggest three ways of understanding symbols in the processes of political transition: as symbols of change, as symbols of acknowledgment, and as symbols of support.

  6. The parliamentary political agenda: a tool for policy analysis of diabetes priorities in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agudelo-Suárez, Andrés A; Ruiz-Cantero, María Teresa; González-Zapata, Laura I; Restrepo-Medrano, Juan Carlos; Ortiz-Barreda, Gaby M

    2012-01-01

    To analyze the political agenda on diabetes in Spain under democracy by considering the frequency and content of initiatives in the Spanish parliament. A systematic search of parliamentary interventions (1979-2010) reported on the Spanish Congress of Deputies' web page was carried out using the key word "diabetes". A descriptive study of the frequency of interventions was performed, followed by a content analysis, according to the priorities of the World Health Organization (WHO), the International Diabetes Federation and the Spanish Diabetes Federation. Other study variables were the year of presentation, legislature, type of initiative and whether a political decision was taken (yes/no). There were 59 interventions: 22% were related to the first international initiatives and 44.1% took place in the last two legislatures in response to the WHO's program Diabetes Action Now. A total of 32.2% of the initiatives addressed educational and social programs, while 23.7% addressed access to resources and health services. Most initiatives (74.6%) consisted of parliamentary questions to the government, which only required a response. Of the 15 initiatives requiring a decision to be taken, only eight were approved. Spanish legislators aim to comply with international standards. Nevertheless, political decision-making has sometimes been slow. Importantly, most of the political responsibilities related to health have been transferred to the autonomous regions. The updated National Diabetes Strategy in Spain will need to strengthen public health policies according to established international priorities. Monitoring parliamentary interventions has proven to be a valid tool for evaluating patterns of political debate and decisions on diabetes. Copyright © 2011 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  7. Movements and Meanings: Towards an Integrated Approach to Political Discourse Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Дуглас Марк Понтон

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This chapter has two principal focuses; firstly backwards in time, across some of the high points in the development of political discourse analysis, in order to assess the current state of the field. It also has a future focus, as it attempts to integrate insights from some emerging fields, such as Multimodality, with more consolidated approaches. It has been argued, in many accounts (e.g. Fairclough and Fairclough 2012, that persuasion is the most pervasive function of all political discourse, and most authors agree that the processes involved encompass both textual and non-textual features. An influential early attempt, for example, to describe some non-verbal aspects of persuasive rhetoric was Atkinson (1984, who identified features like the speaker’s voice quality, intonation, posture, body language, eye movements, and so on, as well as some other non-linguistic ‘tricks’. As influential as this work was, however, these features have tended to be omitted from many subsequent accounts of persuasion in political rhetoric, which have concentrated on features of argumentation operating at a strictly textual level.The overall aim of this work is to suggest pathways towards the ambitious goal of developing a usable, integrated model for analysing political discourse. Instead of analysing a single feature such as metaphor (Charteris-Black 2006, parliamentary insults (Ilie 2004, evaluative language or humour (Swain 1999, 2002, the model attempts to combine descriptions of textual and non-verbal/multimodal features of political discourse, in order to provide a practical tool for analytical purposes, and a coherent account of their possible pragmatic effects.

  8. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... analysis or VA's Office of Inspector General conducts an independent risk analysis of the data breach. The...

  9. Smoking and (Not) Voting: The Negative Relationship Between a Health-Risk Behavior and Political Participation in Colorado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albright, Karen; Hood, Nancy; Ma, Ming; Levinson, Arnold H

    2016-03-01

    Considerable evidence suggests that cigarette smokers are an increasingly marginalized population, involved in fewer organizations and activities and with less interpersonal trust than their nonsmoking counterparts. However, only two previous studies, both among Swedish populations, have investigated smokers' attitudes toward political systems and institutions. The current, cross-sectional study examines smoking in relation to voting, a direct behavioral measure of civic and political engagement that at least partly reflects trust in formal political institutions. Secondary analyses were conducted of interview data from 11 626 respondents in the Colorado Tobacco Attitudes and Behaviors Survey. Data were collected via telephone between October 2005 and mid-April 2006 and included respondents' reported voting behavior in the 2004 national election; the participation rate was 89.7%. Balanced multiple logistic regression was used to examine associations between smoking and voting while controlling for other covariates known to be associated with both variables. In the final model, daily smokers were less than half as likely as nonsmokers to report having voted in the election. The results suggest possible consonance with previous work linking smoking with political mistrust. Possible causal mechanisms are discussed. This study is the first to link a health-risk behavior with electoral participation, and provides initial evidence that smoking is negatively associated with political participation. Future research should investigate how public health might enhance tobacco control efforts by taking nonvoting behavior into consideration, or creatively combining smoking cessation interventions with voter registration and other civic engagement work, particularly among socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is

  10. Modeling Social Pressures Toward Political Instability in the United Kingdom after 1960: A Demographic Structural Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar Ortmans

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In the current paper, we investigate the predictive ability of Goldstone’s demographic structural model. In particular we seek to apply Turchin’s version of it to modeling the social pressures for political instability in the UK. It is then demonstrated that Turchin’s analysis of ‘demographic structural’ pressures in the US presents similar conditions that developed under neoliberalism during the same time periods in both countries. It is also demonstrated that the modeling of social pressures toward political instability in the UK and the USA performed by Peter Turchin and us can throw some light on the factors and patterns of the global sociopolitical destabilization wave of the 2010s. Thus, Goldstone’s demographic structural model might have some predictive potential not only at the national level, but also global scale.

  11. A Critical Analysis of the Philosophical-Political Element of the Master-Slave Dialectic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matheus Pelegrino da Silva

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT:The section “Lordship and Bondage” in Hegel’s Phenomenology of Spirit offers us, through the criticism of slavery, some indications regarding Hegel’s conception of human nature. In this paper some consequences of this conception for Hegel’s political philosophy are identified and presented. The analysis shows problems may emerge when we analyze some fundamental Hegelian concepts – “recognition” and shows that some “men” – if we take into consideration the way these concepts were defined in the master-slave dialectic. In light of these problems it is pointed out that Hegel’s political philosophy, and also his position regarding slavery, become less cogent and more susceptible to criticism. The last part of the text analyzes some consequences of problems related to the possibility of defining the concepts “recognition” and “men” in terms of Hegel’s model of state.

  12. Spatial energy market risk analysis using the semivariance risk measure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Zuwei

    2007-01-01

    The paper concentrates on the analysis of semivariance (SV) as a market risk measure for market risk analysis of mean-semivariance (MSV) portfolios. The advantage of MSV over variance as a risk measure is that MSV provides a more logical measure of risk than the MV method. In addition, the relationship of the SV with the lower partial movements is discussed. A spatial risk model is proposed as a basis of risk assessment for short-term energy markets. Transaction costs and other practical constraints are also included. A case study is provided to show the successful application of the model. (author)

  13. Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-06-01

    The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

  14. Multicultural Education in a Post-Race Political Age: Our Movement at Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Patricia L.

    2009-01-01

    The 2008 elections ushered in a new era in U.S. politics with implications for race relations and social justice activity. Drawing parallels between the contemporary African American community and splintering undercurrents in the National Association for Multicultural Education (NAME), the author urges cross-generational coalescence around an…

  15. A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

  16. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

  17. THE ENTRANCE OF VENEZUELA IN MERCOSUR: ANALYSIS OF THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Schmuziger Goldzweig

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims to study the perception of the political agents of the Congress through the analysis of their votes on the context of the acceptance of Venezuela into MERCOSUR, relating it to the potential gains coming from its admission. The relevance of the topic is justified by the importance that the bloc would acquire accepting a new member, considering the expansion of the internal consumer market and the increase of oil reserves of the bloc. Therefore, the intention is to clarify the political situation favorable to the integration and, taking the Brazilian perception in consideration, establish the relationship between economic gains that would come from the acceptance of Venezuela as a state member and the political discourse regarding this subject in the National Congress. Through the votes of deputies and senators we mapped the variables that act as important factors in the decision-making process of lawmakers. It was found that the party influence, though strong, suffers marginal effects of variables such as the influence of regional and local interests when it comes to voting on foreign policy.

  18. Politics and its intersection with coverage with evidence development: a qualitative analysis from expert interviews.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, Danielle; Lexchin, Joel

    2013-03-09

    Pressures on health care budgets have led policy makers to discuss how to balance the provision of costly technologies to populations in need and making coverage decisions under uncertainty. Coverage with evidence development (CED) is being employed to meet these challenges. Twenty-four interviews were carried out between June 2009 and December 2010 with researchers, decision makers and policy makers from Australia, Canada, United Kingdom and United States. Three phases of coding occurred, the first being manual coding where the interviews were read and notes were taken and nodes were extracted and imputed. NVIVO coding was applied to the interview transcripts, with both broad general searches for word usages and imputed nodes. Four overarching thematic areas emerged out of contextual analysis of the interviews - (1) what constitutes CED; (2) the lack of a systematic approach/governance structure; (3) the role of the pharmaceutical industry and overt political considerations in CED; and (4) alternatives and barriers to CED. We explore these themes and then use concrete examples of CED projects in each of the four countries to illustrate the political issues that our interviewees raised. Until the underlying political nature of CED is recognized then fundamental questions about its usefulness and operation will remain unresolved.

  19. Nuclear energy: public controversies and the analysis of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sills, D.L.

    1984-01-01

    Energy is a social concept, the product of social, economic, and political processes that define certain raw materials as resources and thus convert them into usable energy. Like all social concepts, energy is controversial. Out of a wide range of controversies, three are selected for analysis here: (1) the relationship of nuclear power systems to nuclear weapons proliferation; (2) the risks of terrorism and sabotage associated with the operation of nuclear power facilities, including threats to civil liberties; and (3) the problems associated with the long-term management of radioactive wastes. The final section of the paper describes various modes of analyzing risks and the perception of risks. It is concluded that it may take many decades to learn whether nuclear energy is as natural a source of electrical power as wells are of drinking water, or whether nuclear energy is a horror that mankind in the 1980s or 1990s took a hard look at and then backed away. (author)

  20. Financial Analysis Analogies for Software Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Masood Uzzafer

    2010-01-01

    A dynamic software risk assessment model is presented. Analogies between dynamic financial analysis and software risk assessment models are established and based on these analogies it suggested that dynamic risk model for software projects is the way to move forward for the risk assessment of software project. It is shown how software risk assessment change during different phases of a software project and hence requires a dynamic risk assessment model to capture these va...

  1. The analysis of actual versus perceived risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Covello, V.T.; Flamm, W.G.; Rodricks, J.V.; Tardiff, R.G.

    1983-01-01

    The major aims of the Society for Risk Analysis, as stated in its constitution, are to promote knowledge and understanding of risk analysis techniques and their applications; to promote communication and interaction among those engaged in risk analysis; and to disseminate risk analysis information and promote the advancement of all aspects of risk analysis. Members of the Society are drawn from a variety of disciplines, including the health sciences, engineering, the physical sciences, the humanities, and the behavioral and social sciences. An important function of the Society is the annual meeting, at which various aspects of risk analysis are discussed. The first annual meeting, represented by this volume, was the International Workshop on the Analysis of Actual vs. Perceived Risks, held from June 1-3, 1981, at the National Academy of Sciences in Washington, DC

  2. Celebrating Risk: The Politics of Self-Branding, Transgression & Resistance in Public Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BLAKE POLAND

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Persons 'branded' as dangerous to the public's health often try to hide their status (as smokers, as HIV positive, etc. Yet, a small but growing subgroup has re-appropriated stigma symbols and voluntarily branded themselves as 'marked' individuals, rebellious, transgressive and refusing to be shamed by their status. In this article we examine voluntary branding as acts of resistance, paying particular attention to bodily practices that disrupt dominant aesthetic and moral/political sensibilities. We draw on our research and observations in the realms of smoking and bareback sex to illustrate and address broader issues of branding the self, aesthetics and the politics of resistance, surveillance, and transgression. Drawing on the work of Goffman, Bourdieu and Foucault, we examine the interpenetration of class, physical and social capital, and unequal social relations. While these works are often used to celebrate resistance, we argue, following Fiske, that it should not be romanticized as inherently liberating.

  3. Applying Critical Discourse Analysis as a conceptual framework for investigating gender stereotypes in political media discourse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lanchukorn Sriwimon

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to demonstrate how Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA can be used as a conceptual framework for investigating gender stereotypes in political media discourse. Language and gender studies in media discourse work with a diverse theoretical standpoint underpinning each particular work, and are generally bound by a concern for the reproduction of ideology in language use, which is also one of the aims of CDA. However, CDA has previously been criticized for selecting and using only a small number of texts, leading to concerns of representativeness of the texts selected, and thus susceptibility to the researcher's bias in text selection for an intended analysis. In this paper, we used news reports with reference to the former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra of Thailand as the case study to examine how gender stereotypes related to female politicians are linguistically generated in media text. We demonstrate how an abstract concept such as stereotyping can be investigated through systematic linguistic analysis and how such criticisms, especially that of representativeness of the texts selected, or cherry-picking data, can be addressed when conducting a CDA research project. We propose that the potential bias in data selection can be minimized or even eliminated by systematically obtaining a data set large enough to be a representative sample. Doing so can help increase the ability to describe texts, and more thoroughly convince the reader of the resulting claims regarding how gender stereotypes in politics are reproduced and generated through language used in media.

  4. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  5. A Political, Economic, Social, Technology, Legal and Environmental (PESTLE Approach for Risk Identification of the Tidal Industry in the United Kingdom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athanasios Kolios

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of renewable and especially tidal energy through a political, economic, social, technology, legal and environmental (PESTLE analysis approach and by reviewing the most up to date relevant literature. The study focuses on the United Kingdom given the favourable environmental resources for such technologies; the number of different design concepts that are currently under development as well as the research funding that has been invested over the last few years. Findings of the analysis identify the risks and multiple stakeholders involved at all stages of the tidal energy projects development from the conceptualization of the design, right through to decommissioning. Many of the stakeholders present benefits to the tidal developers through funding, incentives and knowledge sharing, but at the same time they also present potential risks to the future of projects. This is mostly down to different approaches of the most important aspect of tidal energy that needs to be considered, making it hard for technologists and developers to equally address all requirements. From this research it can be concluded that several of these risks can be mitigated early on providing that particular stakeholders are involved at the correct stage of a project.

  6. Linking Political Systems and War Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harste, Gorm

    2009-01-01

    military coercion to be the appropriate mean. Using the system theory and the theory of systemic risks displayed by the German sociologist Niklas Luhmann the article demonstrates how military systems due to their own autonomy and autopoiesis do not fit into the idea of political government......Decisive parts of the Western political system have demonstrated a seemingly surprising misinterpretation of military might. As Madelaine Albright has suggested, the mighty perceived themselves as "almighty". Political power seems to have invested in instrumental coercive power relations and found....... The Clausewitzian ideal of a political system that could continue its power games by means of war was moderated by Clausewitz' own analysis of "friction". How can a political system be so blind towards the possibilities of another system? What are the risks of systemic blind spots? The argument of the paper...

  7. Sentiment analysis of political communication: combining a dictionary approach with crowdcoding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haselmayer, Martin; Jenny, Marcelo

    2017-01-01

    Sentiment is important in studies of news values, public opinion, negative campaigning or political polarization and an explosive expansion of digital textual data and fast progress in automated text analysis provide vast opportunities for innovative social science research. Unfortunately, tools currently available for automated sentiment analysis are mostly restricted to English texts and require considerable contextual adaption to produce valid results. We present a procedure for collecting fine-grained sentiment scores through crowdcoding to build a negative sentiment dictionary in a language and for a domain of choice. The dictionary enables the analysis of large text corpora that resource-intensive hand-coding struggles to cope with. We calculate the tonality of sentences from dictionary words and we validate these estimates with results from manual coding. The results show that the crowdbased dictionary provides efficient and valid measurement of sentiment. Empirical examples illustrate its use by analyzing the tonality of party statements and media reports.

  8. Bridging political economy analysis and critical institutionalism: an approach to help analyse institutional change for rural water services

    OpenAIRE

    Stephen David Jones

    2015-01-01

    This paper argues that approaches to understanding local institutionsfor natural resource management based on “critical institutionalism” (Cleaver2012), which emphasises the importance of improvisation and adaptationacross different scales, can be placed within broader political economy analysisframeworks for assessing challenges in public services delivery from national tolocal levels. The paper uses such an extended political economy analysis approachto understand the role of the internatio...

  9. Political ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strohm, H.

    1979-01-01

    Using facts and examples, this didactically structures textbook gives an insight into the extent and consequences of the damage to the environment, with the subjects - fundamentals of ecology; - population and food problems; - the energy problem; - economic growth; scarcity of resources, recycling; - ground, water, and air pollution, - city and traffic problems; - work protection and medical care; - political alternatives and 'soft technologies'. The analysis of the political and economic reasons is combined with social and technical alternatives from which demands to be made and measures to be taken can be derived for individuals, citizens' interest groups, political groups and trade unions. Teaching models intend to help teachers to work on specific problems of ecology. (orig.) [de

  10. From politics on documentary to documentary politics: notes for a perspective of analysis. Da poltica no documentrio s polticas do documentrio: notas para uma perspectiva

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Csar Geraldo Guimares

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Facing the upgrowing interest about the political dimension of documentary cinema, this article compares two ways of apprehension and points out some theoretical and methodological choices there implied. We emphasize the prevalence of representation as an analytical operator in the studies about the theme and practice the proposition of an alternative regard, which is based on the concept of distribution of the sensible as a central reference and it takes into account the ways of production or invention - themselves of the documentary politics. By the end, we present, for heuristic purposes, a brief analysis of Juzo (Maria Augusta Ramos, 2007, attempting to investigate the singular possibilities of political invention in the movie.Diante do crescente interesse em torno da dimenso poltica do cinema documentrio, o artigo compara dois modos principais de apreenso do fenmeno e aponta algumas escolhas tericas e metodolgicas a implicadas. Destacamos o predomnio da representao como operador analtico nos estudos sobre o tema e ensaiamos a proposio de uma visada alternativa, que tem como referncia central o conceito de partilha do sensvel e leva em conta os modos prprios de produo ou de inveno poltica do documentrio. Ao final, apresentamos, para fins heursticos, uma breve anlise de Juzo (Maria Augusta Ramos, 2007, buscando investigar as possibilidades singulares de inveno poltica sustentadas pelo filme.

  11. Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

  12. WHY THE SUDDEN CHANGE OF THE POLITICAL REGIME IS DETERMINING RISK IN ECONOMY AND SOCIETY?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Lucian MEHEDINTI

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this article the authors aim to gather an in-depth understanding of the evolution of manking throughout the history and its political regimes, and in the same time are analizing and determining the components of the social function that exercised a great influence on the stability and dynamics of the production and consumption, pointing out that any social organization that wants to remain rational should have as a primary objective the happiness of the people, that so called,“general happiness”, that could only be achieved through education, culture, raising people's moral and intellectual knowledge. Since any political system does not seek the general good, but the one of some persons or a specific group of people, there is only very little communion between them and the people or is entirely missing and for these reasons their reign won’t be long, because the people are always wanting a political change. This "social problem" occurred because of some significant social movements, socialist doctrines whose effects still persist in present times. The efforts of the profound thinkers and mankind throughout the history, with all the positive developments did not materialize in achieving a society in which wealth is equitably distributed, where the contributions of the people in getting them is equally shared that could satisfy the requirements and the needs of the majority members of the society. In all the transformations and society changes or the political regime of the state, the human being represented the base, with its unlimited evolution and thinking, and all of these were achieved in time and were given by a certain social environment. The human being can not be separated from its social environment. He is born to live in the society, but the freedom can not be unlimited of course. The history has shown that all the hasty attempts suffered the same fate and the only sustainable progress made by the people were those who came out

  13. Street children and political violence: a socio-demographic analysis of street children in Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veale, Angela; Donà, Giorgia

    2003-03-01

    The aims were: (1) to examine the profile of African street children and to assess the link between street children in Africa and political violence; (2) to undertake a systematic examination of causal factors of street children in postgenocide Rwanda; and (3) to situate this analysis in the context of the socio-cultural and political impact of the genocide on Rwandan communities. Observational mapping examined the profile and activities of Rwandan street children. Structured interviews were carried out with 290 children in four regional towns to obtain information on socio-demographic, familial, educational background, causal factors surrounding street life involvement, psychological well-being, and relationship to the street. Focus group discussions and key informant interviews examined the relationship between street children and the broader Rwandan society. Street children in Rwanda were predominantly adolescent boys, almost half of whom were homeless (42%), with a high proportion of orphaned children or children who had lost at least one parent. Two variables predicted homelessness: child's guardian and reason for being in street. Qualitative accounts of children conveyed the impact of death of family members, repatriation, imprisonment of parents, and poverty on their lives. The analysis highlighted the need for community based support for children in alternative guardianship care and for policies to support the reintegration of male youths in postconflict welfare strategies as prevention strategies for street migration.

  14. Popularization and personalization: a historical and cultural analysis of 50 years of Dutch political television journalism

    OpenAIRE

    van Santen, R.A.

    2012-01-01

    Politicians, journalists and scholars in the Netherlands and abroad regularly express their concern about the negative influence of television journalism on the quality of public debate and political trust. The concern usually focuses on an alleged popularization of political journalism and personalization of politics. This dissertation shows that their concern is unjustified. Five systematic and longitudinal studies of political television journalism in the Netherlands show that there is no ...

  15. Politics and scientific expertise: Scientists, risk perception, and nuclear waste policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barke, R.P.; Jenkins-Smith, H.C.

    1993-01-01

    To study the homogeneity and influences on scientists' perspectives of environmental risks, the authors have examined similarities and differences in risk perceptions, particularly regarding nuclear wastes, and policy preferences among 1011 scientists and engineers. Significant differences (p<0.05) were found in the patterns of beliefs among scientists from different fields of research. In contrast to physicists, chemists, and engineers, life scientists tend to: (a) perceive the greatest risks from nuclear energy and nuclear waste management; (b) perceive higher levels of overall environmental risk; (c) strongly oppose imposing risks on unconsenting individuals; and (d) prefer stronger requirements for environmental management. On some issues related to priorities among public problems and calls for government action, there are significant variations among life scientists or physical scientists. It was also found that-independently of field of research-perceptions of risk and its correlates are significantly associated with the type of institution in which the scientist is employed. Scientists in universities or state and local governments tend to see the risks of nuclear energy and wastes as greater than scientists who work as business consultants, for federal organizations, or for private research laboratories. Significant differences also are found in priority given to environmental risks, the perceived proximity of environmental disaster, willingness to impose risks on an unconsenting population, and the necessity of accepting risks and sacrifices. 33 refs., 3 figs., 9 tabs

  16. THE CASE OF BREXIT: AN ANALYSIS OF THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC FACTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filip Kokotovic

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the short-term economic, as well as the long-term political consequences of Brexit. In order to analyse the short-term economic impact, we implement Chow’s test for a structural break on the main stock exchange indexes. Another significant part of this paper is an analysis of the factors that have an impact on the exports of the United Kingdom and whether the potential decrease of the exchange rate will be more relevant than the anticipated decrease of FDI and GDP. This paper concludes that there is significant evidence that there was a negative short-term economic impact caused by Brexit, as well that it might have a detrimental impact on the long-term exports of the United Kingdom. This paper further concludes that Brexit was a unnecessary and avoidable event that might not have happened had there been an accountable political class that fairly and objectively presented the potential consequences of Brexit.

  17. Reregulation of the Swedish pharmacy sector-A qualitative content analysis of the political rationale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisell, Kristin; Winblad, Ulrika; Sporrong, Sofia Kälvemark

    2015-05-01

    In 2009, a reregulation of the Swedish pharmacy sector took place, and a fundamental change in ownership and structure followed. The reregulation provides an opportunity to reveal the politicians' views on pharmacies. The aim of this study was to explore and analyze the political arguments for the reregulation of the Swedish pharmacy sector in 2009. The method used was a qualitative content analysis of written political documents regarding the reregulation. The primary rationales for the reregulation were better availability, efficiency, price pressure, and safe usage of medicines. During the preparatory work, the rationales of diversity on the market and entrepreneurship were added, while the original rationales of efficiency, price pressure, and better usage of medicines were abandoned. The reform can be seen as a typical New Public Management reform influenced by the notion that private actors are better equipped to perform public activities. The results point to that the reform was done almost solely in order to introduce private ownership in the pharmacy sector, and was not initiated in order to solve any general problems, or to enhance patient outcomes of medicine use. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. AN ANALYSIS OF OFF RECORD STRATEGIES REFLECTING POLITENESS IMPLICATURE IN “OPRAH WINFREY SHOW”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahma Yanti

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This thesis discusses strategies off the record that describes implicatures modesty in a conversation. Off record strategy is one of the five strategies. This strategy is discussed for the use of the language used in the forms of direct. The object of research are strategies off the record that describes implicatures politeness in a famous talk show in America, namely, "Oprah Winfrey Show". The data were taken using methods refer to refer techniques involved free conversation, where the author was not involved in the dialogue that occurs because the data is taken from the TV show, recording technique with the aid of a recorded tape. Furthermore, the authors use the technique CAAT by way of transcribing talk show back in the form transcription ortrografis. This analysis uses methods equivalent pragmatic look at the role of external factors of language, especially the factor of interlocutors on selection strategies used off record. The results showed that the context of the situation and the violations of the maxim of conversation will influence the choice of strategies used off record. However there are some cases when this option do not follow the rules. This is because of other factors that come into play in a conbersation such as an intonation. mplicatures appear generally in the form of affirmation that is used in polite. In one sentence found two or more strategy off record selected speakers.

  19. The psychology of intelligence analysis: drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellers, Barbara; Stone, Eric; Atanasov, Pavel; Rohrbaugh, Nick; Metz, S Emlen; Ungar, Lyle; Bishop, Michael M; Horowitz, Michael; Merkle, Ed; Tetlock, Philip

    2015-03-01

    This article extends psychological methods and concepts into a domain that is as profoundly consequential as it is poorly understood: intelligence analysis. We report findings from a geopolitical forecasting tournament that assessed the accuracy of more than 150,000 forecasts of 743 participants on 199 events occurring over 2 years. Participants were above average in intelligence and political knowledge relative to the general population. Individual differences in performance emerged, and forecasting skills were surprisingly consistent over time. Key predictors were (a) dispositional variables of cognitive ability, political knowledge, and open-mindedness; (b) situational variables of training in probabilistic reasoning and participation in collaborative teams that shared information and discussed rationales (Mellers, Ungar, et al., 2014); and (c) behavioral variables of deliberation time and frequency of belief updating. We developed a profile of the best forecasters; they were better at inductive reasoning, pattern detection, cognitive flexibility, and open-mindedness. They had greater understanding of geopolitics, training in probabilistic reasoning, and opportunities to succeed in cognitively enriched team environments. Last but not least, they viewed forecasting as a skill that required deliberate practice, sustained effort, and constant monitoring of current affairs. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  20. Politics and Poetics of the Event: from silencing to a risk of voicing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alda Regina Tognini Romaguera

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Our interest is to think of politics and poetics of images and words in writings traversed by the experiences (workshops, soirées, exhibitions... that have taken place in the extension and outreach project Reading and Creation Workshops with Words and Images developed by Fabulografias - ALB Center for Reading, throughout the years 2013 and 2014. How to extract the significance from words and photographs and make them vibrate, make them multiple? Launch the event in gatherings, thoughts and poetics and photographic compositions. One of the challenges of a plane of collective experimentation around the minority becoming, winds that blow in the meetings of the Collective Group Fabulografias. Among other things: doing away with the discursive orders and making life resonate from within a tense silence that drifts nearby. Compose an education that differs, blowing from within the potencies of art and the philosophy of Gilles Deleuze.

  1. Should I be worried? Citizens’ experiences and the risk politics of cell site deployment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Graaff, M.B.

    2016-01-01

    How do we deal with the risks of new technology? This research takes the mobile phone cell sites as case. The exponential growth of the wireless telecommunications network, materialized in the construction of cell sites, is raising concerns about its health risks for decades. Where do citizens’

  2. Risk analysis and safety rationale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, G.

    1989-01-01

    Decision making with respect to safety is becoming more and more complex. The risk involved must be taken into account together with numerous other factors such as the benefits, the uncertainties and the public perception. Can the decision maker be aided by some kind of system, general rules of thumb, or broader perspective on similar decisions? This question has been addressed in a joint Nordic project relating to nuclear power. Modern techniques for risk assessment and management have been studied, and parallels drawn to such areas as offshore safety and management of toxic chemicals in the environment. The report summarises the finding of 5 major technical reports which have been published in the NORD-series. The topics includes developments, uncertainties and limitations in probabilistic safety assessments, negligible risks, risk-cost trade-offs, optimisation of nuclear safety and radiation protection, and the role of risks in the decision making process. (author) 84 refs

  3. Summary Authoritarialism as Political Regime: Analysis of Historical and Empirical Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. D. Grossman

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is devoted to the problems of existence of authoritarian regimes. The ambiguity of the resulting data determines the importance of the considered research. Authoritarianism is quite complicated socio-political phenomenon. For this reason, there are a lot of typologies and special features of authoritarianism as a political regime. Authoritarianism is not only a political regime, but it is also a set of social and political characteristics. Some countries, where the authoritarian tendencies dominate, are economically developed, and they have a competitive economy, but other countries, which are steeped in a reactionary authoritarian, do not develop properly. From the materials of this article it should be concluded that the political regime in Russia is principally authoritarian, or to be specific it is liberal authoritarian regime. This political regime has been established for the whole history of our country, and it is supported by paternalistic political culture and special mindset our nation.

  4. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

  5. Politics without Politics

    OpenAIRE

    Dean, Jodi

    2009-01-01

    textabstractProf.dr. Jodi Dean, hoogleraar politieke filosofie aan Hobart and William Smith Colleges (Geneva, New York), sprak donderdag 19 februari 2009 haar inaugurele rede uit, getiteld "Politics without politics". Dean is dit jaar Erasmus Professor op de Erasmus Chair of Humanities in de Faculteit der Wijsbegeerte. De Erasmus Wisselleerstoel is ingesteld door de G. Ph. Verhagen Stichting. V In haar oratie gaat Dean in op het thema democratie in relatie tot linkse politiek. Enkele politiek...

  6. Orphans and political instability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breuning, Marijke; Ishiyama, John

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates the security implications of growing orphan populations, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Little has been written about the security implications of this especially vulnerable group of children. Are growing orphan populations associated with increases in political instability as has been suggested? Using data from several sources, we employ regression analysis to test whether Sub-Saharan African countries with larger proportions of orphans and those with increasing orphan populations experience higher rates of political instability. We find that the increase in the orphan population is related to an increasing incidence of civil conflict, but do not find a similar relationship for the proportion of orphans. In addition, we find that the causes of orphanhood matter. We conclude that increases in orphan populations (rather than simple proportions) are destabilizing. We suggest possible avenues for mediating the security risks posed by growing orphan populations.

  7. Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

    2017-08-01

    With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Sector-based political analysis of energy transition: Green shift in the forest policy regime in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sergent, Arnaud

    2014-01-01

    This article examines energy transition political process from a sector-based approach, through the analysis of recent shift in the French forest policy regime. We demonstrate that, since 2007, energy transition policies have led to a harvesting turn within the French forest policy framework, meaning that priority is given to wood mobilisation, mainly for biomass uses. In addition, our findings suggest that the political authority wielded by the state over forest policy has shifted from forest administrative services to energy agencies and local authorities. Finally, we show that, although implementation of the harvesting turn is a cause of sectoral and inter-sectoral tensions, energy transition challenge also contributes to a process of (re)institutionalisation of mediation relationships among forestry stakeholders and wood-based industries representatives. The article concludes by arguing that sectors should retain relevant institutional frameworks for actors when choosing political arrangements required for implementing energy transition policy. - Highlights: • Implementing energy transition policy potentially challenges sector-based politics. • We propose a policy regime framework and socio-political investigations. • We analyse the political impact of energy transition policy on French forest sector. • Shifts occur in sectoral policy framework, authority, and mediation relationships

  9. Geotechnical risk analysis user's guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-03-01

    All geotechnical predictions involve uncertainties. These are accounted for additionally by conservative factors of safety. Risk based design, on the other hand, attempts to quantify uncertainties and to adjust design conservatism accordingly. Such m...

  10. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

  11. Lessons for REDD+ from Cameroon's past forestry law reform: a political economy analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guy Patrice Dkamela

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and enhancing forest carbon stocks (REDD+ is gaining traction in Cameroon. However, given the deep-rooted trans-sectoral drivers of forest loss, enforcing REDD+ policies will require major policy change and reform both within and beyond the forestry sector. In this paper, we view the REDD+ policy arena in Cameroon within a political economy framework and conduct policy network analysis to explore the factors that will enable or hinder efforts to implement the broad policy change required to realize REDD+. As the REDD+ context is shaped by the history of Cameroon's forestry sector, we draw lessons for REDD+ from the forestry law reform undertaken in 1994. We focus our analysis on three factors considered necessary for REDD+ success: (i autonomy of the nation state from interests behind deforestation and forest degradation, (ii national ownership over reform processes, and (iii inclusiveness of policy processes. We find that the REDD+ policy process in Cameroon is repeating the weaknesses of the earlier forestry law reform, as seen in the minimal ownership of REDD+ by national actor groups and low inclusiveness among domestic actors at both national and local levels, as well as the absence of a national coalition for REDD+. Furthermore, politics and private agendas are compromising state agencies' autonomy in making decisions about forest resources. Our findings suggest that responses to these weaknesses, as well as to inconsistencies between sectoral policies and to competition over forest resources, will determine whether REDD+ can induce change within and beyond Cameroon's forestry sector.

  12. ‘Only a pawn in their game’: crime, risk and politics in the case of Robert Fardon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russell Hogg

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In 2003 Robert Fardon was the first prisoner to be detained under the Dangerous Prisoners (Sexual Offenders Act 2003 (Qld, the first of the new generation preventive detention laws enacted in Australia and directed at keeping sex offenders in prison or under supervision beyond the expiry of their sentences where a court decides, on the basis of psychiatric assessments, that unconditional release would create an unacceptable risk to the community. A careful examination of Fardon’s case shows the extent to which the administration of the regime was from the outset governed by politics and political calculation rather than the logic of risk management and community protection. In 2003 Robert Fardon was the first person detained under the Dangerous Prisoners (Sexual Offenders Act 2003 (Qld (hereafter DPSOA, a newly enacted Queensland law aimed at the preventive detention of sex offenders. It was the first of a new generation of such laws introduced in Australia, now also in force in NSW, Western Australia and Victoria. The laws have been widely criticized by lawyers, academics and others (Keyzer and McSherry 2009; Edgely 2007. In this article I want to focus on the details of how the Queensland law was administered in Fardon’s case, he being perhaps the most well-known prisoner detained under such laws and certainly the longest held. It will show, I hope, that seemingly abstract rule of law principles invoked by other critics are not simply abstract: they afford a crucial practical safeguard against the corruption of criminal justice in which the ends both of community protection and of justice give way to opportunistic exploitation of ‘the mythic resonance of crime and punishment for electoral purposes’ (Scheingold 1998: 888.

  13. Reliability and validity of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

  14. Risk analysis based on hazards interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Trasforini, Eva; De Angeli, Silvia; Becker, Joost

    2017-04-01

    Despite an increasing need for open, transparent, and credible multi-hazard risk assessment methods, models, and tools, the availability of comprehensive risk information needed to inform disaster risk reduction is limited, and the level of interaction across hazards is not systematically analysed. Risk assessment methodologies for different hazards often produce risk metrics that are not comparable. Hazard interactions (consecutive occurrence two or more different events) are generally neglected, resulting in strongly underestimated risk assessment in the most exposed areas. This study presents cases of interaction between different hazards, showing how subsidence can affect coastal and river flood risk (Jakarta and Bandung, Indonesia) or how flood risk is modified after a seismic event (Italy). The analysis of well documented real study cases, based on a combination between Earth Observation and in-situ data, would serve as basis the formalisation of a multi-hazard methodology, identifying gaps and research frontiers. Multi-hazard risk analysis is performed through the RASOR platform (Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation Of Risk). A scenario-driven query system allow users to simulate future scenarios based on existing and assumed conditions, to compare with historical scenarios, and to model multi-hazard risk both before and during an event (www.rasor.eu).

  15. Chaos theory in politics

    CERN Document Server

    Erçetin, Şefika; Tekin, Ali

    2014-01-01

    The present work investigates global politics and political implications of social science and management with the aid of the latest complexity and chaos theories. Until now, deterministic chaos and nonlinear analysis have not been a focal point in this area of research. This book remedies this deficiency by utilizing these methods in the analysis of the subject matter. The authors provide the reader a detailed analysis on politics and its associated applications with the help of chaos theory, in a single edited volume.

  16. The Debate on the Risk of Genetically Modified Food: The Politics of Science

    OpenAIRE

    Gaivoronskaia, Galina; Solem, Knut Erik

    2000-01-01

    Scientific research on the use of genetic engineering in the production of new food is facing a difficult situation. Further development in this field is being impacted more and more by the debate on the risk of GM food, where consumers’ tools and the ability to influence decision-making are being enhanced. In Norway regulatory mechanisms have been introduced to address a wide range of GM-food risks, but at the same time have created certain obstacles for scientists and industry. Not yet usin...

  17. Risk Analysis for Agricultural Cooperatives

    OpenAIRE

    Kenkel, Philip L.; Parrish, Robert

    2013-01-01

    Grain/fertilizer volumes are major risks for grain/supply cooperatives followed by fertilizer and fuel margins. Operating losses force stock write downs (22% probability) and negative cashflow (15% probability). Decisions on cash and stock patronage, infrastructure investment, and equity retirement improve member returns but increase stock write downs and negative cashflow probability

  18. Putting at risk what we know: reflecting on the drug-using subject in harm reduction and its political implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, David; Fraser, Suzanne

    2006-06-01

    This paper provides a poststructuralist analysis of the cultural inscription of drug-using subjects in the neo-liberal discourses of contemporary harm reduction. We argue that although neo-liberal discourses downplay material constraints on individual human agency, divert policy and practice away from structural issues, limit the conception of effective strategies for harm reduction and ignore alternative formulations of the subject, they are also potentially empowering for drug users. Approximating the neo-liberal subject offers political benefits in terms of recognition, trust and legitimation, even as those values assume and reproduce understandings of behaviour, thought and sociality that fit only poorly the realities faced by many drug users. We explore this dilemma and consider three available directions in formulating the subject of harm reduction: (1) embracing the neo-liberal subject; (2) employing a more contextualised version of the neo-liberal subject; and (3) adopting alternative notions of subjectivity, extending the critique of the neo-liberal subject to all citizens, not solely drug users. To clarify some of these issues surrounding this strategic process, the paper considers another field in which struggles over the nature of the subject have been conducted--feminism. The intention is not to resolve the question of the most appropriate subject for harm reduction, but to sketch the political consequences of adopting particular models of the subject as a stimulus to further discussion and debate.

  19. How Climate Change became a Business Risk: Analyzing Non-State Agency in Global Climate Politics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pattberg, P.H.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is widely acknowledged as a key business risk. Companies around the globe are taking action to mitigate their carbon emissions, develop climate-friendly products and services, and prepare for the negative impacts of climate change for their operations. Financial investors, on their

  20. Politics of risk-taking: Welfare state reform in advanced democracies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vis, B.

    2010-01-01

    How much and in which direction have the welfare states among the Western democracies changed over the past decades? Moreover, under which conditions have governments enacted these changes? Based on insights from prospect theory, a psychological theory of choice under risk, Vis demonstrates ably

  1. Mango Street and Malnourished Readers: Politics and Realities in an "At-Risk" Middle School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, M. Alayne

    2007-01-01

    This article presents results of a literature-response study conducted with at-risk middle school students of Latino, African American, and Caucasian backgrounds. The study was guided by an assumption of students' ability to read and coherently assimilate elements of "The House on Mango Street," by Sandra Cisneros (1984). Although centered in…

  2. Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-01

    Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

  3. Seismic Politics: Risk and Reconstruction after the 1960 Earthquake in Agadir, Morocco.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williford, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    On 29 February 1960, an earthquake struck the city of Agadir, Morocco, killing between ten and fifteen thousand Moroccans and Europeans and damaging the majority of the city's structures. Drawing on data from seismographs, witness accounts, and direct observations of destruction, international teams of experts working in the aftermath of the disaster rewrote Agadir as a seismically vulnerable space. In the process, they depoliticized destruction and assigned responsibility for the devastation of the city's poorest neighborhoods to "natural" forces and ineffective "traditional" building practices. Once established in the work of geologists, seismologists, and engineers, the notion of seismic risk shaped the material and moral trajectories of reconstruction during the first decade of Morocco's independence from France. As it cut across scientific, engineering, and bureaucratic domains, seismic risk gave rise to projects aimed less at controlling nature than at redistributing vulnerability and authority among experts, administrators, and inhabitants in Agadir.

  4. RISK ANALYSIS, ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE: GETTING MORE FROM OUR DATA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and regression are common statistical techniques used to analyze agronomic experimental data and determine significant differences among yields due to treatments or other experimental factors. Risk analysis provides an alternate and complimentary examination of the same...

  5. Ritual encounters of the queer kind: a political analysis of jewish lesbian ritual innovation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brettschneider, Marla

    2003-01-01

    SUMMARY Jewish feminist and queer engagement in Jewish life and Judaism are transforming the practices and foundational orientations of traditional modes. Jewish feminist, queer ritual innovation in particular is inspired by an array of secular and radical critical theories as much as it is by the historic concrete experiences of a diversity of Jews in different Jewish communities. It is important to hold all of us who are involved in religious ritual innovation responsible to the knowledges we have developed and learned in critical theory or we risk, even with the best of intentions and creativity, re-inscribing some of the very problems of traditional ontological norms that we might have originally sought to disrupt and subvert. This article looks specifically at examples of new "coming out" rituals for Jewish queers explored over time in the Jewish Queer Think Tank: honoring them as well as offering tools from secular critical theory to assist our work in keeping them accountable to our aspirations to both love and fundamentally transform Jewishness. Here I redefine the function of religious ritual itself in political terms as an identity-producing performance. As such I utilize social constructionist queer theories (i.e., Shane Phelan and Judith Butler), anarchists (i.e., Emma Goldman), and those involved in radical theatre (i.e., Augusto Boal) to articulate the revolutionary potential of ritual innovation.

  6. The double burden of neoliberalism? Noncommunicable disease policies and the global political economy of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasgow, Sara; Schrecker, Ted

    2015-07-01

    The growing prevalence of NCDs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is now recognized as one of the major global health policy issues of the early 21st century. Current official approaches reflect ambivalence about how health policy should approach the social determinants of health identified by the WHO Commission on the topic that released its report in 2008, and in particular the role of macro-scale economic and social processes. Authoritative framing of options for NCD prevention in advance of the September, 2011 UN high-level meeting on NCDs arguably relied on a selective reading of the scientific (including social scientific) evidence, and foregrounded a limited number of risk factors defined in terms of individual behavior: tobacco use, unhealthy diet, alcohol (ab)use and physical inactivity. The effect was to reproduce at a transnational level the individualization of responsibility for health that characterizes most health promotion initiatives in high-income countries, ignoring both the limited control that many people have over their exposure to these risk factors and the contribution of macro-scale processes like trade liberalization and the marketing activities of transnational corporations to the global burden of NCDs. An alternative perspective focuses on "the inequitable distribution of power, money, and resources" described by the WHO Commission, and the ways in which policies that address those inequities can avoid unintentional incorporation of neoliberal constructions of risk and responsibility. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. The double burden of neoliberalism? Noncommunicable disease policies and the global political economy of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasgow, Sara; Schrecker, Ted

    2016-05-01

    The growing prevalence of NCDs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is now recognized as one of the major global health policy issues of the early 21st century. Current official approaches reflect ambivalence about how health policy should approach the social determinants of health identified by the WHO Commission on the topic that released its report in 2008, and in particular the role of macro-scale economic and social processes. Authoritative framing of options for NCD prevention in advance of the September, 2011 UN high-level meeting on NCDs arguably relied on a selective reading of the scientific (including social scientific) evidence, and foregrounded a limited number of risk factors defined in terms of individual behavior: tobacco use, unhealthy diet, alcohol (ab)use and physical inactivity. The effect was to reproduce at a transnational level the individualization of responsibility for health that characterizes most health promotion initiatives in high-income countries, ignoring both the limited control that many people have over their exposure to these risk factors and the contribution of macro-scale processes like trade liberalization and the marketing activities of transnational corporations to the global burden of NCDs. An alternative perspective focuses on "the inequitable distribution of power, money, and resources" described by the WHO Commission, and the ways in which policies that address those inequities can avoid unintentional incorporation of neoliberal constructions of risk and responsibility. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  8. Politeness Strategies in Healthcare Communication at "Difficult Times": A Pragmatic Analysis of the "Manga" Discourse in "Nurse Aoi"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuoka, Rieko; Poole, Gregory

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the ways in which healthcare professionals interact with patients' family members, and/or colleagues. The data are from healthcare discourses at difficult times found in the manga series entitled Nurse AOI. As the first step, we selected several communication scenes for analysis in terms of politeness strategies. From these…

  9. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  10. POLITENESS PRINCIPLE ANALYSIS IN CARTOON MOVIE ENTITLED STAND BY ME DORAEMON

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eko Mulyono

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the use of politeness principle in cartoon movie entitled “Stand By Me Doraemon”. It aims at giving a description on the use of politeness principle in this movie so that this is the source of data as well. The data are collected by note taking technique and then analyzed descriptively. After analyzing the data, the researcher finds the use of politeness principle in the movie script. They are utterances of the use of politeness principle covering the kinds of maxim in politeness principle. The utterances covey the use of tact maxim, generosity maxim, approbation maxim, modesty maxim, agreement maxim, and sympathy maxim. Then, it focused also in politeness scale such as formality scale, hesitancy scale, and equality scale. The finding result showed that there are 25 politeness principle found in cartoon movie “Stand By Me Doraemon”. 1 tact maxim, 3 generosity maxim, 6 approbation maxim, 1 modesty maxim, 2 agreement maxim, 3 sympathy maxim, 2 formality scale, 4 hesitancy scale, and 3 equality scale. Approbation maxim is the maxim of the most numerous in the movie. This is because the characters in this film seek to avoid conflict and create an environment that is comfortable in communication.   Key words: politeness principle, cartoon movie, utterance, maxim, scale.

  11. The Rhetorical Limits of Satire: An Analysis of James Finn Garner's "Politically Correct Bedtime Stories"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gring-Pemble, Lisa; Watson, Martha Solomon

    2003-01-01

    By July 1994, "Politically Correct Bedtime Stories" had appeared for the third time on the "New York Times" bestseller list with sales exceeding 100,000 copies. One year later, there were almost 1.5 million copies of "Politically Correct Bedtime Stories" in print as it continued to excite public commentary. This popular book is an ideal case study…

  12. Political Sustainability of Economic reforms : Dynamics and Analysis of Regional Economic Factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fidrmuc, J.

    1996-01-01

    This paper analyzes the political economy of the reform process theoretically and empirically.Building on the framework developed by Rodrik [1995], a two-sector model of a transition economy is constructed.This model is then used to study the dynamics of political support for the reforms.The key

  13. Schooling: A Political Analysis of the Distribution of Power and Privilege.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeakey, Carol Camp

    1981-01-01

    Analyzes the crucial role of schooling in the economic, social, and political development of a citizenry in the developing nations of Africa. Information is presented on the family and the school, political socialization, the recruitment of elites through the school system, vestiges of colonialism, the impact of independence, and transmission of…

  14. Political Party Songs: Analysis of the Theme in a Song Topo By ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Political party songs came back to live in 1993 after Lesotho returned to democratic rule following the suspension of the constitution in 1970. It was through these songs that followers of different political parties expressed their feelings of sadness, happiness or hope. This paper analyses one song titled Topo by the band ...

  15. Popularization and personalization: a historical and cultural analysis of 50 years of Dutch political television journalism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Santen, R.A.

    2012-01-01

    Politicians, journalists and scholars in the Netherlands and abroad regularly express their concern about the negative influence of television journalism on the quality of public debate and political trust. The concern usually focuses on an alleged popularization of political journalism and

  16. Politics, citizenship and disobedience in the city of crisis: a critical analysis of contemporary housing struggles in Madrid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janoschka, Michael

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The city region of Madrid can be considered as an exponent of the striking contradictions associated with the contemporary market-oriented production of housing. Given the increasing economic constraints of many ­middle- and working-class households because of the crisis, property values have been declining for practically seven years now, and tens of thousands of households have been evicted from their homes because they were unable to pay back their mortgages. Simultaneously, since the outbreak of the indignados movement in May 2011, a contestation of the structural forces ruling the real estate sector has been taking place, and questions about the right of housing became a prominent part of the public debate in an increasingly politicised society. Alongside the background of literature about the post-political city and subversive citizenship, this article pursues three key aims: It analyses the consequences of the persistent crisis with a special focus on the residential housing market in Madrid. Secondly, an analysis of the new social and political dynamics that have been emerging during the crisis is developed. Finally, it pinpoints to the way how the emergence of new actors within contemporary housing struggles has been shifting the social and political discourses in this political arena. Such an approach brings together discussions from the field of Political Science with the new geographies of contested crisis urbanism that relate to debates about the social construction of the city, citizenship and disobedience.

  17. [Import risk analysis in animal disease control].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauser, Ruth; Breidenbach, Eric; Thür, Barbara; Griot, Christian; Engels, Monika; Stärk, Katharina

    2004-01-01

    At the Swiss Federal Veterinary Office risk analyses are conducted according to international standards. A risk analysis contains the elements risk management, risk assessment and risk communication. A risk assessment is based on risk profile, hazard identification and a pathway model. All available information is gathered, documented and assessed and the risk estimated. The question. "What is the probability that unprocessed wild boar meat imported to Switzerland from the federal state Mecklenburg Western Pommerania is contaminated with classical swine fever virus?" was answered by a release assessment. The hazard identification recognized classical swine fever virus and attenuated live virus vaccine used for oral immunization as hazards. The probability of contamination was estimated to be small. The question: "What is the likelihood to introduce Aujeszky's disease to Switzerland and infect the indigenous pig population with the disease, by means of importing pork and meat products?" was answered by assessing the release, exposure and resulting consequences. The risk of an infection of the indigenous pig population was estimated to be very small, as 80% of the imported products derive from countries or zones free from Aujeszky's disease. Furthermore the majority of the imported products are processed. The strict implementation of the regulations governing feeding of food wastes to pigs reduces the probability of exposure. In all assessments the risk management decides on a strategy to deal with the risk, taking into consideration the results and recommendations derived from the risk assessment as well as other relevant factors.

  18. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize...... of the producers was risk averse. Gender was found responsible for the level of risk involve in the new variety maize production. Other factors that were found responsible for their level of risk involved in the production include age, position held in the society and farm size. Finally, the study recommends...

  19. GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

    1991-01-01

    The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

  20. Extractive waste management: A risk analysis approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Neha; Dino, Giovanna Antonella; Ajmone-Marsan, Franco; Lasagna, Manuela; Romè, Chiara; De Luca, Domenico Antonio

    2018-05-01

    Abandoned mine sites continue to present serious environmental hazards because the heavy metals associated with extractive waste are continuously released into the environment, where they threaten human life and the environment. Remediating and securing extractive waste are complex, lengthy and costly processes. Thus, in most European countries, a site is considered for intervention when it poses a risk to human health and the surrounding environment. As a consequence, risk analysis presents a viable decisional approach towards the management of extractive waste. To evaluate the effects posed by extractive waste to human health and groundwater, a risk analysis approach was used for an abandoned nickel extraction site in Campello Monti in North Italy. This site is located in the Southern Italian Alps. The area consists of large and voluminous mafic rocks intruded by mantle peridotite. The mining activities in this area have generated extractive waste. A risk analysis of the site was performed using Risk Based Corrective Action (RBCA) guidelines, considering the properties of extractive waste and water for the properties of environmental matrices. The results showed the presence of carcinogenic risk due to arsenic and risks to groundwater due to nickel. The results of the risk analysis form a basic understanding of the current situation at the site, which is affected by extractive waste. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Project cost analysis under risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florica LUBAN

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an integrated approach based on Monte Carlo simulation and Six Sigma methodology is used to analyze the risk associated with a project's total cost. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to understand the variability in total cost caused by the probabilistic cost items. By Six Sigma methodology the range of variation of the project cost can be reduced by operating on the input factors with the greatest impact on total cost to cover the variation of 6 between the limits that were established in the design phase of Six Sigma.

  2. Has Political Science Ignored Religion?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettell, Steven

    2012-01-01

    A common complaint from political scientists involved in the study of religion is that religious issues have been largely overlooked by political science. Through a content analysis of leading political science and sociology journals from 2000 to 2010, this article considers the extent of this claim. The results show that political science…

  3. Panama disease in banana and neoliberal governance: towards a political ecology of risk

    OpenAIRE

    Cruz, de la, Jaye

    2017-01-01

    The emergence of Panama disease Tropical Race 4 (Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. cubense) or TR4 – a fungal disease in banana that is considered by horticulture experts as not only one of the most destructive diseases in the world (Ploetz 1994) but one with no on-hand socio-cultural or chemical method to control it satisfactorily (Ploetz 2015) – has generated conversations, dialogue, inquiry and at times controversy, on how this risk is to be managed. The onslaught of Tropical Race 1 (TR1) in the 19...

  4. Dealing with phenomenological uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theofanous, T.G.

    1994-01-01

    The Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) is summarized and developed further towards a formal definition. The key ideas behind the methodology and these more formal aspects are also presented and discussed

  5. Comprehensive risk analysis for structure type selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    Optimization of bridge selection and design traditionally has been sought in terms of the finished structure. This study presents a : more comprehensive risk-based analysis that includes user costs and accidents during the construction phase. Costs f...

  6. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    .... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...

  7. Speaking two "Languages" in America: A semantic space analysis of how presidential candidates and their supporters represent abstract political concepts differently.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ping; Schloss, Benjamin; Follmer, D Jake

    2017-10-01

    In this article we report a computational semantic analysis of the presidential candidates' speeches in the two major political parties in the USA. In Study One, we modeled the political semantic spaces as a function of party, candidate, and time of election, and findings revealed patterns of differences in the semantic representation of key political concepts and the changing landscapes in which the presidential candidates align or misalign with their parties in terms of the representation and organization of politically central concepts. Our models further showed that the 2016 US presidential nominees had distinct conceptual representations from those of previous election years, and these patterns did not necessarily align with their respective political parties' average representation of the key political concepts. In Study Two, structural equation modeling demonstrated that reported political engagement among voters differentially predicted reported likelihoods of voting for Clinton versus Trump in the 2016 presidential election. Study Three indicated that Republicans and Democrats showed distinct, systematic word association patterns for the same concepts/terms, which could be reliably distinguished using machine learning methods. These studies suggest that given an individual's political beliefs, we can make reliable predictions about how they understand words, and given how an individual understands those same words, we can also predict an individual's political beliefs. Our study provides a bridge between semantic space models and abstract representations of political concepts on the one hand, and the representations of political concepts and citizens' voting behavior on the other.

  8. Powerlessness of older people in Hong Kong: a political economy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kam, Ping-kwong

    2003-01-01

    Gerontologists agree that old age can be associated with an increase in powerlessness both in the personal domain and in the social and political fields. This paper is an attempt to understand the concept of powerlessness in old age within a political economy theoretical framework. The paper argues that the powerlessness of older people is not biologically determined. Rather, it is socially constructed. It has its roots in the social, economic, and political structure of society. For this reason, the paper argues that (a) the capitalist economic system discriminates against and marginalizes older people in the labor market. The current unfavorable economic climate will make the economic situation of older people worse. (b) The residual welfare system does not counteract the unfavorable impact of the economic system. Rather, it deprives older people of the necessary financial resources and social service supports that would enable them to lead independent and dignified lives. (c) The authoritarian political system creates adverse conditions that make it very difficult for older people to participate in the decision-making process on issues that affect their lives, as well as on broader political issues that affect the whole of society. It is the interplay among these economic, social, and political forces in Hong Kong that creates the political economy of powerlessness in old age and prevents older people from using their powers to master and control their lives.

  9. Political, social and technical risks in the last stages of disease eradication campaigns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitty, Christopher J M

    2015-09-01

    Eradication of a disease is one of the greatest gifts any generation can give to subsequent ones, but most attempts have failed. The biggest challenges occur in the final stages of eradication and elimination campaigns. These include falling public support as a disease becomes less common; the emergence of groups who do not support eradication; spiralling costs; and the evolution of drug, vaccine or insecticide resistance. Mass campaigns become less effective as the disease fragments and modelling becomes less reliable. Optimism bias is the biggest risk to any eradication campaign and the long endgame must be planned for from the beginning. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmalz, F.

    1991-01-01

    In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

  11. 'When you use the term 'long term', how long is that term'. Risk, Exclusion, and the Politics of Knowledge Production in Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste Management Policy Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stanley, Anna [Univ. of Guelph (Canada). Dept. of Geography

    2006-09-15

    Risk operates within Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste (NFW) management policy making as a heuristic for knowledge production about its effects which reconciles the knowledge of the nuclear industry with the outcomes of the NFW management process. In so doing it marginalizes the present and historical experiences of Aboriginal peoples with the nuclear industry, and removes from view the ways in which they have been implicated in the geography and political economy of the nuclear industry. Risk is a discursive form that protects a particular group's claims about the effects of NFW by providing it a universalizing epistemological structure with which to obscure its connection to context. Further risk discourse provides the nuclear industry with a conceptual vocabulary that deliberately casts all competing knowledge as perceptions, values, or as an object of inquiry. The arguments of Aboriginal peoples about the residual effects of radiation in their lands which hosted nuclear activities, such as uranium mining and disposal, have no representation in how the discourse of risk defines and represents knowledge, and thus no purchase in the policy debate. As a result the challenge they present to the nuclear industry's claims are contained. The arrangements which permit the unloading of the negative effects of nuclear power generation onto Aboriginal peoples are thus reproduced (both materially and conceptually), but not shown, by the policy making process and likely, its outcome. In order to raise critical questions about the democratic abilities of risk, this paper has examined the role of 'risk' in Canadian NFW policy making. I have shown how when the politics of knowledge production within the philosophy of risk is analyzed, and the use and role of the notion of risk are interrogated, difficult questions are posed for the democratic potential of risk. I have suggested, through an analysis of the NWMO's representations of Aboriginal content in their

  12. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-10-01

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  13. Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

  14. Conflict or accommodation? : an analysis of the transition to multiparty system in Egypt and the political strategies of the Muslim Brotherhood

    OpenAIRE

    Egset, Willy

    1998-01-01

    Conflict or Accommodation? An analysis of the Transition to Multiparty System in Egypt and the Political Strategies of the Muslim Brotherhood This thesis analyses political obstacles to democratic consolidation in Egypt with focus on the experiences of political liberalisation and establishment of a multiparty system in Egypt and the integration of the Islamist "mainstream" opposition. The study seeks to establish a historical, contingent approach to the problems involved, in which the ...

  15. WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-05-01

    The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

  16. Politics, Security, Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wæver, Ole

    2011-01-01

    ’ is distinct from both the study of political practices of securitization and explorations of competing concepts of politics among security theories. It means tracking what kinds of analysis the theory can produce and whether such analysis systematically impacts real-life political struggles. Securitization...... theory is found to ‘act politically’ through three structural features that systematically shape the political effects of using the theory. The article further discusses – on the basis of the preceding articles in the special issue – three emerging debates around securitization theory: ethics...

  17. A CONSOLIDATED MODEL OF ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONS BETWEEN POLITICS AND MANAGEMENT WITHIN PUBLIC ORGANIZATIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Catalina Maria GEORGESCU; Tudor NISTORESCU

    2011-01-01

    An interdisciplinary approach which combines the theoretical, empirical and conceptual dimensions, the present study tries to offer a new work perspective on the assessment and modeling of the relation between the management of public organizations and the political environment. The theoretical research was centered on reviewing the literature on the relation between the management of public organizations and the political environment. The empirical research was materialized by modeling with ...

  18. Unveiling the Political Agenda of the European Parliament Plenary: A Topical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Greene, Derek; Cross, James P.

    2015-01-01

    This study analyzes political interactions in the European Parliament (EP) by considering how the political agenda of the plenary sessions has evolved over time and the manner in which Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) have reacted to external and internal stimuli when making Parliamentary speeches. It does so by considering the context in which speeches are made, and the content of those speeches. To detect latent themes in legislative speeches over time, speech content is analyzed u...

  19. Analysis of the Russian political tolerance in society-government relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Korolevska

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The high culture of tolerance accelerates political socialization, improves the qualities of a citizen, a sense of ownership of public affairs, instilling respect for democratic values. Relevance of the work is determined by processes that occur in today’s society and that lead not only to confusion but to destruction of public relations. The article reviews the state of political tolerance in the system of relations society – authorities in Russia. Based on opinion polls statistical analyzes to determine trends in contemporary ensure political tolerance is conducted. Due to correlation between support for Putin and the perception of the political situation in the country as well is determined existence. Fixes sustainable public discontent actual situation in the country, however, people do not use the opportunities for political activism. Almost two thirds of Russians believe that the interests of the government and society in do not match. The low percentage of respondents believe that the political course of the country’s leadership in the interests of ordinary people. There is a steady trend to an agreement among the Russian population to concentrate power in his hands. There is a slight increase of the population of those who are ready to connect to solve their problems in life forms of protest activity.

  20. Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

  1. Political participation of older adults in Scandinavia - the civic voluntarism model revisited? A multi-level analysis of three types of political participatio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikael Nygård

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This article examines political participation among older adults in Österbotten, Finland, and Västerbotten, Sweden. Two specific hypotheses are tested. First, we anticipate that older adults are loyal voters but less avid in engaging in politics between elections. Second, we expect individuallevel resources to explain why older people participate in politics. The article offers two contributions to the literature on political participation of older adults. First, it corroborates earlier findings by showing that older adults indeed have a higher inclination to vote than to engage in political activities between elections, but it also shows that the latter engagement is more diversified than one could expect. Second, although the findings largely support the resource model, they suggest that we need to consider also other factors such as the overall attitude towards older people.

  2. Risk analysis of alternative energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazmer, D.R.

    1982-01-01

    The author explores two points raised by Miller Spangler in a January 1981 issue: public perception of risks involving nuclear power plants relative to those of conventional plants and criteria for evaluating the way risk analyses are made. On the first point, he concludes that translating public attitudes into the experts' language of probability and risk could provide better information and understanding of both the attitudes and the risks. Viewing risk analysis methodologies as filters which help to test historical change, he suggests that the lack of information favors a lay jury approach for energy decisions. Spangler responds that Congress is an example of lay decision making, but that a lay jury, given public disinterest and polarization, would probably not improve social justice on the nuclear issue. 5 references, 4 figures

  3. Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Philippe

    1989-12-01

    This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

  4. Risk Analysis at Work in Manufacturing Organization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maroš Korenko

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk is virtually present everywhere around us. Nowadays, there is an increasing focus on safety at work; therefore, the organizations that want to be successful in the market try to eliminate risk factors to a minimum to avoid or prevent the health hazard of employees, damages to property or the environment. The work is focused on the risk assessment of a selected device, which is the most risky workplace according to the organization where the research was conducted. In the practical part, we became familiar with the equipment for welding and a thorough analysis of the current state of safety by a complex method was done. Consequently, corrective actions to reduce risk to an acceptable level were proposed. After that, we reassessed the risks of complex method, and the point method was used to verify the effectiveness of proposed remedial measures.

  5. The Canadian Theories of Origin and Evolution of Canada’s Political Culture: Critical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilya A. Sokov

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The author of the article analyzes the most famous Canadian theories of origin and evolution of the Canadian political culture (CPC during the first half of the 20th century. He marks the weak and strong points of these theories, their contradictions and evaluates these theories. The article also deals with the economic theory of the staples goods of Harold Innis, the theory of the Canadian regional political cultures of G. Horowitz, the theory of wave immigration of Nelson Wiseman. The general defect of these theories consists in the fact that their authors take into account one and only factor as the basic one for constructing the functional and structural scheme of the ideological and the political development in Canada. Besides, the last two theories about the Canadian political culture are based on the historical context and at the same time their construction’s base is represented by the ideological concepts of the American scientists –fragments” by Lous Hartz and “forming events” by Seymour Martin Lipset in the communities of the New World. According to the author, the adoption of these concepts does not only reflect the past historical events but also the current processes in Canada’s political culture. The author concludes that the Canadian political culture is the unique historical phenomenon only for Canada and he also says about that the functional-structural schemes are developed within the individual scientific disciplines. The interdisciplinary approach is necessary for studies of the Canadian political culture, and the development of the original theory is based on the use of the numerous factors of the historical-cultural development of the Canadian society.

  6. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  7. Analysis & commentary. Health reform: only a cease-fire in a political hundred years' war.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Thomas P

    2010-06-01

    Four dominant political forces drove the process and product of national health reform during the past two years: federal budget constraints; public concerns about the size and reach of the federal government; the time pressure of the congressional calendar; and the political parties' high-stakes, all-or-nothing bets on what became President Barack Obama's defining policy priority. Republican congressional leaders saw little advantage in offering more detailed alternatives. Congressional Democrats calculated that they had even more to lose politically by abandoning health reform legislation than by pushing it through Congress. This essay argues that passage of the legislation merely represents a cease-fire in a long-standing war and that more battles between forces for "implementation" and those for "repeal and replace" are to come.

  8. Does political instability lead to higher and more volatile inflation?: A panel data analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aisen Ari

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Economists generally accept the proposition that high and volatile inflation rates generate inefficiencies that reduce society’s welfare. Furthermore studies have shown that inflation is harmful to economic growth. However determining the causes of the worldwide diversity of inflationary experiences is an important challenge not yet satisfactorily confronted by the profession. Based on a broad dataset covering over 100 countries for the period 1975-1997 and using dynamic and static panel data econometric techniques, this paper shows that a higher degree of political instability is associated with both higher inflation levels and volatility. Not only does this paper advance the political economy literature establishing a relationship between inflation moments and political instability, but it also has important policy implications regarding the optimal design of inflation stabilization programs and of the institutions favorable to price stability.

  9. Workshop in political institutions - institutional analysis and global climate change: Design principles for robust international regimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGinnis, M.

    1992-01-01

    Scientific evidence suggests that human activities have a significant effect on the world's climate. Political pressures are growing to establish political institutions at the global level that would help manage the social and economic consequences of climate change. Disagreements remain about the magnitude of these effects, as well as the regional distribution of the detrimental consequences of climate change. In this paper we do not wish to enter into the complexities of these technical debates. Instead, we wish to challenge a seemingly widespread consensus about the nature of the political response appropriate to this global dilemma. Specifically, we question the extent to which the open-quotes answerclose quotes can be said to reside primarily in the establishment of the new global institutions likely to emerge from the first open-quotes Earth Summitclose quotes - the United Nations (UN) Conference on Environment and Development - scheduled for June of 1992 in Rio de Janeiro

  10. Political innovations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Eva

    2017-01-01

    are mainly interested in assessing and promoting innovations in public service delivery, but have paid little or no attention to the need for innovations in polity, politics and policy. This article develops a research agenda for studying innovations in political institutions, in the political process...... and in policy outputs. It proposes a number of research themes related to political innovations that call for scholarly attention, and identifies push and pull factors influencing the likelihood that these themes will be addressed in future research....

  11. Gendering transnational party politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kantola, Johanna; Rolandsen-Agustín, Lise

    2016-01-01

    research traditions, we build toward an analytical framework to study gender and transnational party politics. Our empirical analysis focuses on two policy issues, the economic crisis and the sexual and reproductive health and rights, analyzing European Parliament reports, debates and voting on the issues......In this article, we analyze transnational party politics in the European Union from a gender perspective. This is a subject that has been neglected both by mainstream European studies on party politics and by gender scholars who work on political parties. Drawing on the insights of these two...... right axis and, at the same time, internal divisions within party groups affect policy output....

  12. Politics and health outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Vicente; Muntaner, Carles; Borrell, Carme; Benach, Joan; Quiroga, Agueda; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Vergés, Núria; Pasarín, M Isabel

    2006-09-16

    The aim of this study was to examine the complex interactions between political traditions, policies, and public health outcomes, and to find out whether different political traditions have been associated with systematic patterns in population health over time. We analysed a number of political, economic, social, and health variables over a 50-year period, in a set of wealthy countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Our findings support the hypothesis that the political ideologies of governing parties affect some indicators of population health. Our analysis makes an empirical link between politics and policy, by showing that political parties with egalitarian ideologies tend to implement redistributive policies. An important finding of our research is that policies aimed at reducing social inequalities, such as welfare state and labour market policies, do seem to have a salutary effect on the selected health indicators, infant mortality and life expectancy at birth.

  13. Analysis on natural gas geo-politics in Central Asia-Russia region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feng, Dan

    2010-09-15

    In the year of 2009, some events happened in Central Asia-Russia Region. The transit countries of Nabucco pipeline signed the agreement and the project received considerable progress. The China-Turkmenistan pipeline achieved the completion of ventilation. All these could be landmarks in Central Asia-Russia's geo-political situation. Diversification strategy of gas imports in Europe and diversification strategy of export in Central Asia have been effectively promoted, and the relationship between China and Central Asia becomes closer. Now, the new supply pattern of the region is coming into being and the nature gas geo-political situation in the region is undergoing profound changes.

  14. A CONSOLIDATED MODEL OF ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONS BETWEEN POLITICS AND MANAGEMENT WITHIN PUBLIC ORGANIZATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalina Maria GEORGESCU

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available An interdisciplinary approach which combines the theoretical, empirical andconceptual dimensions, the present study tries to offer a new workperspective on the assessment and modeling of the relation between themanagement of public organizations and the political environment. Thetheoretical research was centered on reviewing the literature on the relationbetween the management of public organizations and the politicalenvironment. The empirical research was materialized by modeling with theregression technique of several aspects integrated to the relations betweenthe management of human resources within public organizations in theeducation field and the external political environment.

  15. Office Politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storm, Paula; Kelly, Robert; deVries, Susann

    2008-01-01

    People and organizations are inherently political. Library workplace environments have zones of tension and dynamics just like any corporation, often leading to the formation of political camps. These different cliques influence productivity and work-related issues and, at worst, give meetings the feel of the Camp David negotiations. Politics are…

  16. Moral politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rapp, Carolin; Traunmüller, Richard; Freitag, Markus

    2014-01-01

    This article combines the research strands of moral politics and political behavior by focusing on the effect of individual and contextual religiosity on individual vote decisions in popular initiatives and public referenda concerning morally charged issues. We rely on a total of 13 surveys with 1...... American research on moral politics, direct democracies, and the public role of religion....

  17. The Effects of news media on leisure tourists' perception of risk and willingness to travel, with specific reference to events of terrorism and political instability.

    OpenAIRE

    Kapuscinski, Grzegorz

    2014-01-01

    The perceptions people hold of destinations are of critical importance in the world of tourism as they influence individuals’ travel choices. In this sense, tourists’ negative awareness concerning safety and security present at a destination can prove disastrous for its ability to attract visitors (George, 2003; Reisinger and Mavondo, 2005). Among a multitude of factors which may amplify tourists perceived risk associated with consuming tourism products, man-made disasters of political instab...

  18. Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

    2002-01-01

    The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

  19. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  20. The impact of dark tetrad traits on political orientation and extremism: an analysis in the course of a presidential election.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duspara, Boris; Greitemeyer, Tobias

    2017-10-01

    Previous research on personality and political attitudes has been conducted in countries where political parties from the center dominate the political system. In the present research ( N = 675), we focus on the relationship between the dark side of human personality and political orientation and extremism, respectively, in the course of a presidential election where the two candidates represent either left-wing or right-wing political policies. Narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and everyday sadism were associated with right-wing political orientation, whereas narcissism and psychopathy were associated with political extremism. Moreover, the relationships between personality and right-wing political orientation and extremism, respectively, were relatively independent from each other.

  1. PHENOMENON OF POLITICAL DIVARICATION: EXPERIENCE OF THE COMPARATIVE-HISTORICAL ANALYSIS OF CONTRAST CASES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Юрий Александрович Пустовойт

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Why, how and under what conditions distinctions between the normative and the real behavior of members of political elite increase? Through the introduction of the concept "political divarication" (the divergence between normative (legitimate, official, public practices of political elite and those interactions that aren't legitimate, aren't declared and are constructed on informal arrangements, contrast cases are compared, the universal hypothesis, explaining the reasons of increase and decrease in the distance, put forward and tested on the historical material. Relying on the method of theoretical history, the author comes to the conclusion that increase of political divarication happens in the conditions of absence of mechanisms of restriction of the sovereignty and the solutions of the intra-elite conflicts. Historically developed traditional forms of government as autocracy, the democratic centralism, "power vertical" can act as such mechanism only for short term during the periods of fast mobilization of resources.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-11-14

  2. Political Events and Attitudinal Stability: Watergate and College Students, a Longitudinal Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahn, Jeffrey W.; Green, Justin J.

    A short-term cohort design is utilized to examine college students at three different time periods--shortly before the Watergate Committee hearings began, after the hearings ended, and after Nixon's resignation. The purpose of the study is to test the stability of political attitudes under the impact of critical national events. Data for this…

  3. A Political Analysis of the August 9, 2014 Gubernatorial Election in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-08-09

    The August 9, 2014 gubernatorial election in Osun state, South West Nigeria was significant in many ways. It was the second in the series of major elections before the 2015 general elections. Coming on the heels of the June 21, 2014 gubernatorial election in Ekiti state it provided an opportunity for the two major political ...

  4. Political Imprisonment and Adult Functioning: A Life Event History Analysis of Palestinians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeely, Clea; Barber, Brian K; Spellings, Carolyn; Belli, Robert; Giacaman, Rita; Arafat, Cairo; Daher, Mahmoud; El Sarraj, Eyad; Mallouh, Mohammed Abu

    2015-06-01

    Political imprisonment is a traumatic event, often accompanied by torture and deprivation. This study explores the association of political imprisonment between 1987 and 2011 with political, economic, community, psychological, physical, and family functioning in a population-based sample of Palestinian men ages 32-43 years (N = 884) derived from a dataset collected in 2011. Twenty-six percent (n = 233) had been politically imprisoned. Men imprisoned between 1987 and 2005 reported functioning as well as never-imprisoned men in most domains, suggesting that men imprisoned as youth have moved forward with their lives in ways similar to their nonimprisoned counterparts. In an exception to this pattern, men imprisoned during the Oslo Accords period (1994-1999) reported higher levels of trauma-related stress (B = 0.24, p = .027) compared to never-imprisoned men. Men imprisoned since 2006 reported lower functioning in multiple domains: human insecurity (B = 0.33, p = .023), freedom of public expression (B = -0.48, p = .017), perceived government stability (B = -0.38, p = .009), feeling broken or destroyed (B = 0.59, p = .001), physical limitations (B = 0.55, p = .002), and community belonging (B = -0.33, p = .048). Findings pointed to the value of examining the effects of imprisonment on functioning in multiple domains. © 2015 International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies.

  5. Judicial Politics in Unconsolidated Democracies: An Empirical Analysis of the Ecuadorian Constitutional Court (2008–2016)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castro-Montero, José Luis; van Dijck, Gijs

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we test the extent to which decisions by the Ecuadorian Constitutional Court (ECC) are predicted by non-legal variables. Our theoretical argument proposes that not only the presence of public actors as plaintiffs—especially those working for the executive branch—but also political

  6. Bringing concepts from cognitive linguistics into the analysis of policies and the political

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cienki, A.J.

    2013-01-01

    The articles in this special issue all seek to highlight the ways in which concepts from linguistics can enlighten analyses of policies and the political. In this commentary, I seek to situate some of the central concepts that have been employed in terms of their treatment in cognitive linguistics.

  7. The Political Ecology of Austerity : An Analysis of Socio-environmental Conflict under Crisis in Greece

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Calvário, R.; Velegrakis, G.; Kaika, M.

    2017-01-01

    The paper focuses on two largely understudied and interrelated aspects of the post-2008 economic crisis: how the politics of austerity influences the dynamics of environmental conflict and how the environment is mobilized in subaltern struggles against the normalization of austerity as the hegemonic

  8. A Burkeian Analysis of the "Political Correctness" Confrontation in Higher Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bello, Richard

    1996-01-01

    Explains that Kenneth Burke's concept of "terministic screen" reveals three rhetorical strategies that those on both sides of the political correctness debate share: unique labeling phraseologies, pugilistic mystification, and a dependence on different pentadic ratios. Concludes with an appraisal of possible future trends. (TB)

  9. The Content and Integrative Component of Capstone Experiences: An Analysis of Political Science Undergraduate Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hummer, Jill Abraham

    2014-01-01

    In 1991, the APSA Task Force on Political Science recommended elements of a curricular structure that would best promote student learning. The report stated that there should be a capstone experience at the end of the senior year and that the capstone should require students to integrate their whole learning experience in the major. This article…

  10. Schwartz's Response to Chapman and Tunmer's Analysis of Reading Recovery Data: Whose Ideology and Whose Politics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, James W.; Tunmer, William E.

    2016-01-01

    In critiquing our paper on "The literacy performance of ex-Reading Recovery students between two and four years following participation in the program: Is this intervention effective for students with early reading difficulties?", Schwartz argues that we have engaged in pursuing political and ideological agendas as part of our ongoing…

  11. Ethno-Political effects of suburbanization in the Vilnius urban region : An analysis of voting behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ubareviciene, R.; Burneika, D.; Van Ham, M.

    2015-01-01

    We use electoral data to analyze the ethno-political consequences that may arise from the fact that the region surrounding the city of Vilnius is dominated by residents with a Polish identity, while those who move to the suburbs are mainly ethnic Lithuanians. In the suburban ring we found increasing

  12. Rural School Funding Inequities: An Analysis of Legal, Political, and Fiscal Issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayton, John

    1998-01-01

    Examines school-funding equity litigation concerning rural schools, effects of political power on rural funding, rural and urban competition for funding, unique funding problems of rural schools, the growing threat to equity posed by sales-tax funding schemes, and future funding-litigation strategies for rural schools. Tables list relevant federal…

  13. Contesting the 'national interest' and maintaining 'our lifestyle': a discursive analysis of political rhetoric around climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurz, Tim; Augoustinos, Martha; Crabb, Shona

    2010-09-01

    The release of the fourth United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in February 2007 prompted a flood of responses from political leaders around the globe. Perhaps nowhere was this more apparent than in Australia, where its release coincided with the first sitting week of the Australian Parliament, in an election year. The current study involves a discursive analysis of climate change rhetoric produced by politicians from the major Australian political parties in the period following the release of the IPCC leading up to the national election. Data include both transcripts of parliamentary debate and statements directly broadcast in the media. The analysis focuses on the various ways in which the issue of climate change was invoked and rhetorically managed by each of the two parties in the lead up to the election. In particular, it focuses on the ways in which appeals to the 'national interest' and 'lifestyle maintenance', both regular features of political rhetoric, were mobilized by both parties to discursively manage their positions on the climate change issue. Implications of the ways in which such appeals were constructed are discussed in relation to the discursive limits of the ways in which the issue of climate change is constructed in public debate.

  14. Risk analysis to optimise safety during basic tunnel design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Molag, M.; Jansen, C.M.A.

    1998-01-01

    The risk analysis to select the preferred basic tunnel design for the tunnels in the High Speed Train Link South from Amsterdam to Antwerp is described. The risk analysis has been split up in two stages: a broad qualitative risk analysis and a quantitative risk analysis. The results of the

  15. Space, politics, and the political

    OpenAIRE

    dikec, mustafa

    1987-01-01

    International audience; Introduction Geography and politics'', Gottmann wrote in 1980, ``have long been in search of each other'' (page 11). Debates in the literature suggest not only that they have found each other, but also that the encounter has instigated, notably in the last decade or so, a body of literature seeking to think space politically, and to think politics spatially. This is not to suggest that previous work on space was apolitical, nor to suggest that previous work on politics...

  16. EVOLUTION OF THEORETICAL APPROACHES TO ENTERPRISE RISKS ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Kravchenko

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Modern state of the Ukrainian clannish-oligarchic economy can be characterized in the terms of extraordinarily high degree of riskiness that makes actual use of scientifically based approach to the entrepreneurial risk management. Paper analyses certain types of enterprise risks than are connected with the certain forms of rotation of capital. Approaches of the different scientific schools to enterprise and its risks (classic political economy, Austrian, Marxism, Austro -German, Keynesianism, behavioral economics, neoclassical school, institutionalism are considered in the article. Formation of the modern Ukrainian theory of enterprise risks must include achievements of other scientific schools.

  17. Performing Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Troy R. E. Paddock

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Walter Benjamin’s observation that fascism turns politics into aesthetics is, by now, a well-worn idea. This article argues that Benjamin’s critique of politics can apply just as much to the modern democratic politics of the United States. Borrowing from Benjamin, Jürgen Habermas, and Carl Schmitt, this article suggests that modern political discourse in the United States does not follow the classical liberal ideal of rational discourse in the marketplace of ideas within the public sphere. Instead, contemporary politics has become spectacle where images and slogans replace thought and debate in a 24/7 news cycle and political infotainment programs. The result is that progressives and conservatives have their own political “ecospheres” which enable them to have their own perspective reinforced, and debate is replaced by straw man arguments and personal attacks.

  18. Teaching Politically without Political Correctness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graff, Gerald

    2000-01-01

    Discusses how to bring political issues into the classroom, highlighting the influence of local context and noting conservative and liberal criticisms of political correctness. Suggests the need for a different idea of how to teach politically from the advocacy pedagogy advanced by recent critical educators, explaining that bringing students into…

  19. Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

    CERN Document Server

    Crowder, Martin J

    2012-01-01

    Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

  20. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  1. A Political, Economic, Social, Technology, Legal and Environmental (PESTLE) Approach for Risk Identification of the Tidal Industry in the United Kingdom

    OpenAIRE

    Kolios, Athanasios J.; Read, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of renewable and especially tidal energy through a political, economic, social, technology, legal and environmental (PESTLE) analysis approach and by reviewing the most up to date relevant literature. The study focuses on the United Kingdom given the favourable environmental resources for such technologies; the number of different design concepts that are currently under development as well as the research funding that has been invested over the la...

  2. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  3. Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...

  4. Rapid Pest Risk Analysis Xyleborinus attenuatus

    OpenAIRE

    Björklund Niklas; Boberg Johanna

    2017-01-01

    This rapid pest risk analysis (PRA) provides a quick assessment of the risks posed by the pest to Sweden, which is the PRA area being assessed. The format is an adapted version of the EPPO Express PRA scheme (EPPO 2012). Definition of terms used as well as the rating scheme and assessments are done in line with the guidance given in the EPPO CAPRA system (EPPO 2011). The likelihood of entry and establishment are assessed considering the current phytosanitary regulation in place with respect t...

  5. Extended risk and benefit evaluation of energy systems for policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotte, E.U.

    1984-01-01

    The social compatibility of future energy scenarios is analysed in order to improve the political decision making. Social compatibility analysis is a form of technology assessment focusing on societal and social issues. The value tree analysis method is applied to collect and structure the values and concerns of important societal groups. Nine relevant groups and organizations in the society of the Federal Republic of Germany are included in the study. A combined value tree is formed by integration of the individual value trees. The overall value tree is transformed into an operational and systematic catalogue of criteria. Measurement instructions and scales are introduced as indicators for the extended risk and benefit evaluation of energy systems. The assessment of specified future energy options is performed by selected scientific experts. The results can improve the political decision-making process with respect to societal needs and desires. (author)

  6. Review: Joseph Patrick Ganahl, Corruption, Good Governance, and the African State: A Critical Analysis of the Political-Economic Foundations of Corruption in Sub-Saharan Africa (2013)

    OpenAIRE

    Reinhart Kößler

    2015-01-01

    Review of the monograph:Joseph Patrick Ganahl, Corruption, Good Governance, and the African State: A Critical Analysis of the Political-Economic Foundations of Corruption in Sub-Saharan Africa, Potsdam: Potsdam University Press, 2013, ISBN 9783869562483, 300 pp.

  7. Review: Joseph Patrick Ganahl, Corruption, Good Governance, and the African State: A Critical Analysis of the Political-Economic Foundations of Corruption in Sub-Saharan Africa (2013)

    OpenAIRE

    Reinhart Kößler; Arnold-Bergstraesser-Institut

    2015-01-01

    Review of the monograph:Joseph Patrick Ganahl, Corruption, Good Governance, and the African State: A Critical Analysis of the Political-Economic Foundations of Corruption in Sub-Saharan Africa, Potsdam: Potsdam University Press, 2013, ISBN 9783869562483, 300 pp. Besprechung der Monographie:Joseph Patrick Ganahl, Corruption, Good Governance, and the African State: A Critical Analysis of the Political-Economic Foundations of Corruption in Sub-Saharan Africa, Potsdam: Potsdam University Press...

  8. [Political psychology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resch, Mária; Bella, Tamás

    2013-04-21

    In Hungary one can mostly find references to the psychological processes of politics in the writings of publicists, public opinion pollsters, philosophers, social psychologists, and political analysts. It would be still important if not only legal scientists focusing on political institutions or sociologist-politologists concentrating on social structures could analyse the psychological aspects of political processes; but one could also do so through the application of the methods of political psychology. The authors review the history of political psychology, its position vis-à-vis other fields of science and the essential interfaces through which this field of science, which is still to be discovered in Hungary, connects to other social sciences. As far as its methodology comprising psycho-biographical analyses, questionnaire-based queries, cognitive mapping of interviews and statements are concerned, it is identical with the psychiatric tools of medical sciences. In the next part of this paper, the focus is shifted to the essence and contents of political psychology. Group dynamics properties, voters' attitudes, leaders' personalities and the behavioural patterns demonstrated by them in different political situations, authoritativeness, games, and charisma are all essential components of political psychology, which mostly analyses psychological-psychiatric processes and also involves medical sciences by relying on cognitive and behavioural sciences. This paper describes political psychology, which is basically part of social sciences, still, being an interdisciplinary science, has several ties to medical sciences through psychological and psychiatric aspects.

  9. The family as the foundation of political rule in western philosophy: a comparative analysis of Aristotle's politics and Hegel's philosophy of right.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvis, Douglas E

    2011-01-01

    For both Aristotle and Hegel, the family is the foundation in which the universalized rule of law is validated according to the political structure of the 'Polis' or 'State' itself. This composite whole or structure of society (Ancient Polis/Modern State) is the political end of humanity for both philosophers, which in turn finds its primordial beginning in the family. For Aristotle, it is in the kingly rule of the household that the property-based distinction of citizenship is set for the rule of his ideal Polis. For Hegel, it is in the love affirmed through caring affection within the nuclear family that the dialectical framework for the freedom of civil society, and the rational unity of a congregational 'spirit' in the State, finds its foundation. For both thinkers, the family sets the base for a political theory that defines citizenship in a manner that transcends the particularities of kin bonds.

  10. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mo Chongxun

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10−6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  11. To Green or Not to Green: A Political, Economic and Social Analysis for the Past Failure of Green Logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Klumpp

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of green logistics has thus far failed. For example, the share of greenhouse gas emissions by the transportation and logistics sector in Europe rose from 16.6% in 1990 to 24.3% in 2012. This article analyzes the reasons behind this failure by drawing on political, economic and business as well as social motivations and examples. At the core of this analysis are the established theorems of the Jevons paradox and the median voter (Black, Downs in combination with time-distorted preferences of voters and consumers. Adding to the hurdles of green logistics are the problems of short-term political programs and decisions versus long-term business investments in transportation and logistics. Two cases from Germany are outlined regarding this political “meddling through” with a recent 2015 truck toll decision and the support for electric trucks and vehicles. Finally, the article proposes two ways forward: public control and restriction of carbon raw materials (coal, oil, as well as public investment in low-emission transport infrastructure or biofuels as the more feasible and likely alternative.

  12. Emotions, Public Opinion, and U.S. Presidential Approval Rates: A 5-Year Analysis of Online Political Discussions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Bailon, Sandra; Banchs, Rafael E.; Kaltenbrunner, Andreas

    2012-01-01

    This article examines how emotional reactions to political events shape public opinion. We analyze political discussions in which people voluntarily engage online to approximate the public agenda: Online discussions offer a natural approach to the salience of political issues and the means to analyze emotional reactions as political events take…

  13. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  14. An Analysis of Off Record Strategies Reflecting Politeness Implicature in “Oprah Winfrey Show”

    OpenAIRE

    Yanti, Rahma

    2017-01-01

    This thesis discusses strategies off the record that describes implicatures modesty in a conversation. Off record strategy is one of the five strategies. This strategy is discussed for the use of the language used in the forms of direct.The object of research is strategies off the record that describes implicatures politeness in a famous talk show in America, namely, "Oprah Winfrey Show". The data were taken using methods refer to refer techniques involved free conversation, where the author ...

  15. EEG Analysis of the Brain Activity during the Observation of Commercial, Political, or Public Service Announcements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Vecchiato

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The use of modern brain imaging techniques could be useful to understand what brain areas are involved in the observation of video clips related to commercial advertising, as well as for the support of political campaigns, and also the areas of Public Service Announcements (PSAs. In this paper we describe the capability of tracking brain activity during the observation of commercials, political spots, and PSAs with advanced high-resolution EEG statistical techniques in time and frequency domains in a group of normal subjects. We analyzed the statistically significant cortical spectral power activity in different frequency bands during the observation of a commercial video clip related to the use of a beer in a group of 13 normal subjects. In addition, a TV speech of the Prime Minister of Italy was analyzed in two groups of swing and “supporter” voters. Results suggested that the cortical activity during the observation of commercial spots could vary consistently across the spot. This fact suggest the possibility to remove the parts of the spot that are not particularly attractive by using those cerebral indexes. The cortical activity during the observation of the political speech indicated a major cortical activity in the supporters group when compared to the swing voters. In this case, it is possible to conclude that the communication proposed has failed to raise attention or interest on swing voters. In conclusions, high-resolution EEG statistical techniques have been proved to able to generate useful insights about the particular fruition of TV messages, related to both commercial as well as political fields.

  16. Analysis of the corporate political activity of major food industry actors in Fiji

    OpenAIRE

    Mialon, Melissa Amina Madeline; Swinburn, Boyd; Wate, Jillian; Tukana, Isimeli; Sacks, Gary

    2016-01-01

    Background Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of mortality in Fiji, a middle-income country in the Pacific. Some food products processed sold and marketed by the food industry are major contributors to the NCD epidemic, and the food industry is widely identified as having strong economic and political power. However, little research has been undertaken on the attempts by the food industry to influence public health-related policies and programs in its favour. The ?corporat...

  17. Translating metaphor in political news: a bidirectional analysis (English and Spanish)

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, Vanessa

    2018-01-01

    This descriptive translation study examines metaphor translation within the journalistic realm by using political news articles and their translations to determine if the methods EN>ES translators tend to use when translating metaphors in this context differ from the methods ES>EN translators tend to use, and to what degree. The framework for classifying the metaphor translation methods was based on methods identified by previous authors in addition to a new method discovered over the course ...

  18. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

  19. Media Use, Political Participation and the Level of Digitization. A Comparative Analysis of EU Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Splendore

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses six rounds of the European Social Surveys (from 2000 to 2012 to explore how 1 media uses, 2 unconventional and 3 conventional (i.e. voting forms of political participation have changed in sixteen European countries. Additionally, the research considers one of the latest surveys to investigate the relation between media use and participation in the contemporary period characterized by open data and e-government. The level of digitization in each country is assessed according to its infrastructure, the legal framework (namely the Freedom of Information Act, the quality of the data available from the public administration, and e-government development in terms of online services. The research question is whether use of the Internet and the level of national digitization affect unconventional forms of political participation. The results demonstrate that both the country’s level of digitization at the macro level and the use of the Web at the individual level are co-determinants of the forms of political participation considered. However, the level of digitization does not affect voting.

  20. Political Regime and Sustainable Development: A Comparative Analysis of Muslim Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ataul Huq Pramanik

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 This paper examines the interrelationship between regime type and development. It argues that proper resource utilization through investment in a stable environment constitutes the vital element of growth, which in turn, can be translated into materializing human development based on longevity, literacy and real purchasing power. Apart from the type of the regime, the ideological commitment also has a bearing on regime performance. A comparative study of six Muslim countries from three regions suggests that political stability in concomitant with dynamism, flexibility, and continuity of appropriate and effective policies play a vital role in regime performance. The most important observation is the role of a stable democratic regime in ensuring a sustainable development based on a balance between economic and political democracy. It appears that an authoritarian regime can survive only with faster rate of growth while a regime with reasonable degree of economic and political democracy can survive even with a moderately lower but sustainable rate of growth.

  1. Risk analysis in oil spill response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chernoplekov, A.N.; Alexandrov, A.A.

    2005-01-01

    Tiered response is a basic approach to emergency plans, including oil spill response (OSR). This paper delineates a huge set of accidental scenarios within a certain tier of response generated by a computer during risk assessment. Parameters such as the amount of oil spilled, duration of discharge and types of losses should be provided in OSR scenarios. Examples of applications include offshore installations, sub sea or onshore pipelines, and localized onshore facilities. The paper demonstrates how to use risk analysis results for delineating all likely spills into groups that need a specific tier response. The best world practices and Russian regulatory approaches were outlined and compared. Corresponding algorithms were developed and their application in pipelines was presented. The algorithm combines expert's skills and spill trajectory modeling with the net environmental benefit analysis principle into the incident specific emergency response planning. 9 refs., 13 tabs., 2 figs

  2. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  3. The ministers of the Concertación de Partidos por la Democracia in Chile. An analysis of their political, social and cultural capital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hernán CUEVAS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article we analyze the political trajectories of 106 former ministers (of a total of 143 who held office during the governments of the Concertación de Partidos por la Democracia between 1990 and 2010. Based on a survey applied to this total, we first measured the political, social and cultural capital of each individual, then calculated each capital’s effect on the probability of individuals becoming a minister of a political, a social or an economic Ministry. Different from other recent studies of the Chilean elite that emphasize its socialization and sociological features, here we constructed separate indices of political capital, social capital and cultural capital to measure and explain how «ministrable» politicians become ministers. Each index has been standardized for the sake of cross-comparison. We conclude that despite the relevance given to technical expertise over politics, political capital is the factor that has the most influence on the probability of individuals becoming ministers of political, social or economic Ministries. Through a logistic regression model and a survival analysis model, we demonstrated that, although academic formation and social background seem relevant, these aspects are less determinant than the political trajectories of individuals, which demonstrated the most robust predictor of becoming a minister.

  4. Risk analysis of external radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvidsson, Marcus

    2011-09-01

    External radiation therapy is carried out via a complex treatment process in which many different groups of staff work together. Much of the work is dependent on and in collaboration with advanced technical equipment. The purpose of the research task has been to identify a process for external radiation therapy and to identify, test and analyze a suitable method for performing risk analysis of external radiation therapy

  5. Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

    2011-01-01

    National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

  6. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billingham, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  7. 14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk Analysis C Appendix C to Part 420... TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LICENSE TO OPERATE A LAUNCH SITE Pt. 420, App. C Appendix C to Part 420—Risk Analysis (a... risk is minimal. (2) An applicant shall perform a risk analysis when a populated area is located within...

  8. Pest Risk Analysis - a Way to Counter Attack Losses Caused

    OpenAIRE

    FLEŞERIU A.; I. OROIAN; Oana VIMAN; I. BRAŞOVEAN

    2010-01-01

    Risk analysis against pathogens is a process of investigation, assessment and decision-making information on apest that begins when it is known or determined that it is a quarantine pest. Pest risk analysis is meaningful only inrelation to an area considered to be at risk. The annual losses are about 35% but can be greatly reduced after applicationof pest risk analysis.

  9. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schmidt

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

  10. Political CSR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeppesen, Søren; Morsing, Mette

    We engage a discussion of political CSR in SMEs in an African context. Based on critical observations on Western MNC CSR action in emerging economies that holds counterproductive implications for social development, political economists have argued that business profit far more than society...... development in local African communities. Our findings extend political CSR research by directing attention to how the corporate influence in developing economies does not only emerge from MNCs but is also established and retained by SMEs CSR work....

  11. Political Competitiveness

    OpenAIRE

    Casey B. Mulligan; Kevin K. Tsui

    2006-01-01

    Political competitiveness - which many interpret as the degree of democracy - can be modeled as a monopolistic competition. All regimes are constrained by the threat of "entry," and thereby seek some combination of popular support and political entry barriers. This simple model predicts that many public policies are unrelated to political competitiveness, and that even unchallenged nondemocratic regimes should tax far short of their Laffer curve maximum. Economic sanctions, odious debt repudi...

  12. Political Ecology

    OpenAIRE

    DeFriez, Joshua; Larsen, Justine; Hilton, Nicholas

    2014-01-01

    Environmental legislation is commonly accepted as an altruistic approach to land management. A closer examination however, reveals that political incentives and flawed arguments consistently shape U.S. environmental policy at high public costs. As student fellows at the Institute of Political Economy at Utah State University, we have had the opportunity to research this subject under the direction of Professor Randy Simmons. Political Ecology is his upcoming book that explores a variety of en...

  13. Political Campaigns

    OpenAIRE

    Lilleker, Darren

    2017-01-01

    Political campaigns are orchestrated attempts by political organizations to garner public support through persuasive communication in order to influence public policy in their favor. This broad definition encapsulates all forms of campaigns from those of neighborhood organizations seeking to influence local politicians to the campaigns of political parties and candidates who seek election to office in order to shape policy themselves. In pluralist democracies, campaigns are crucial for repres...

  14. Political administration

    OpenAIRE

    Åkerstrøm Andersen, Niels

    2000-01-01

    One of the major discussions of the 1990s has been about the relation between politics and administration. The themes of the discussions have been many and varied. It has been suggested that the level of politics should concentrate on the general political outlining and entrust the remaining to the administration. It has been criticised that politicians make their decisions on the basis of single cases, which ought to be an administrative matter entirely. It has been a theme that efficient op...

  15. Using power and influence analysis to address corruption risks: The case of the Ugandan drug supply chain

    OpenAIRE

    Camargo, Claudia Baez

    2012-01-01

    Power and influence analysis can be used to assess corruption vulnerabilities in the public sector. This approach helps identify powerful stakeholders that should be engaged to achieve maximum impact for anti-corruption strategies. It also helps reveal informal political networks and relationships that can hamper anti-corruption efforts. Power and influence analysis was applied to the Ugandan public sector drug supply chain and suggested that interventions aimed at reducing corruption risks w...

  16. The Political Opportunity of the Outsider

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lubinski, Christina

    This paper examines the political strategies of two German firms—Siemens and I.G. Farben—in interwar India as a way to consider how multinational enterprises (MNEs) deal with political risk. The interwar period was characterized by rising political risks throughout the global economy, as conflicts...... contexts but actively shaping political identities and processes of legitimization. This paper uses this case to argue for a rethink of political risk in international business, to regard it as a source of political opportunities that multinationals can capitalize on, and not exclusively as a source...

  17. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  18. The Role of Political Parties in Denmark, the United States, and Uganda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skaates, Maria Anne; Basajjabaka, Abubaker

    1996-01-01

    A comparative analysis of the role of political parties in Denmark, the USA, and Uganda on the basis of political science theories about parties, political participation and political systems.......A comparative analysis of the role of political parties in Denmark, the USA, and Uganda on the basis of political science theories about parties, political participation and political systems....

  19. Conceptual issues with risk analysis in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolet, Pierrick; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Lévy, Sébastien

    2015-04-01

    Risk analysis is a tricky procedure, where one can easily make mistakes. Indeed, although risk equations are rather general, transferring a methodology to another context or hazard type can often lead to inaccuracies or even significant errors. To illustrate this, common mistakes made with the Swiss methodology are presented, together with possible solutions. This includes the following: Risk analysis for moving objects only takes the process dimension into account (e.g. the length of a road section potentially affected by a landslide), but not the object dimension (e.g. the cars length). This is a fair simplification as long as the object dimension is considerably smaller than the process dimension. However, when the object is large compared to the process (e.g. rockfalls on a train), the results will be wrong. This problem can be illustrated by considering two blocs. According to this methodology a 1 m diameter bloc will be twice more susceptible to reach a train than a 50 cm bloc. This is obviously not correct. When it comes to rockfalls risk analysis on roads or railway found in the literature, the bloc dimension is usually neglected, in favour of the object dimension, which is a fair assumption in this context. However, it is possible to include both dimensions by using the sum of the lengths instead of one of them. Risk analysis is usually performed using 3 different scenarios, for 3 different ranges of return periods, namely 1-30, 30-100 and 100-300 years. In order to be conservative, the operator commonly considers the magnitude of the worst event that happens with a return period included between the class bounds, which means that the operator evaluates the magnitude reached or overpassed with a return period of 30, 100 and 300 years respectively. Then, since the magnitude corresponds to the upper bounds of the classes, risk is calculated using the frequency corresponding to these return periods and not to the middle of the class (and also subtracting the

  20. Psychology and the politics of same-sex desire in the United States: an analysis of three cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammack, Phillip L; Windell, Eric P

    2011-08-01

    Psychological science has assumed an increasingly explicit role in public policies related to same-sex desire in the United States. In this article, we present a historical analysis of the relationship between policy discourse and scientific discourse on homosexuality produced within U.S. psychology over the 20th and early 21st centuries through the lens of three cases: Bowers v. Hardwick (1986), Lawrence v. Texas (2003), and Perry v. Schwarzenegger (2010). Our analysis suggests that, for the majority of its disciplinary history, psychology produced knowledge that supported a status quo of legal and cultural subordination for same-sex-attracted individuals. The discipline's shift in understanding of homosexuality, reflected in a 1975 policy statement of the American Psychological Association, reversed this relationship and opened up space for advocacy for social and political change regarding homosexuality. Our analysis of policy decisions rendered by the courts reveals the increasingly important role psychological science has assumed in challenging the legal subordination of same-sex-attracted individuals, though the basis upon which psychological science has sought to inform policy remains limited. We conclude with a critical discussion of the type of knowledge claims psychologists have traditionally used to advocate for gay and lesbian rights, suggesting the vitality of a narrative approach which can reveal the meaning individuals make of legal subordination and political exclusion.

  1. 14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417... OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A flight safety analysis must demonstrate that the risk to the public potentially exposed to inert and...

  2. The Policy Dystopia Model: An Interpretive Analysis of Tobacco Industry Political Activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulucanlar, Selda; Fooks, Gary J; Gilmore, Anna B

    2016-09-01

    Tobacco industry interference has been identified as the greatest obstacle to the implementation of evidence-based measures to reduce tobacco use. Understanding and addressing industry interference in public health policy-making is therefore crucial. Existing conceptualisations of corporate political activity (CPA) are embedded in a business perspective and do not attend to CPA's social and public health costs; most have not drawn on the unique resource represented by internal tobacco industry documents. Building on this literature, including systematic reviews, we develop a critically informed conceptual model of tobacco industry political activity. We thematically analysed published papers included in two systematic reviews examining tobacco industry influence on taxation and marketing of tobacco; we included 45 of 46 papers in the former category and 20 of 48 papers in the latter (n = 65). We used a grounded theory approach to build taxonomies of "discursive" (argument-based) and "instrumental" (action-based) industry strategies and from these devised the Policy Dystopia Model, which shows that the industry, working through different constituencies, constructs a metanarrative to argue that proposed policies will lead to a dysfunctional future of policy failure and widely dispersed adverse social and economic consequences. Simultaneously, it uses diverse, interlocking insider and outsider instrumental strategies to disseminate this narrative and enhance its persuasiveness in order to secure its preferred policy outcomes. Limitations are that many papers were historical (some dating back to the 1970s) and focused on high-income regions. The model provides an evidence-based, accessible way of understanding diverse corporate political strategies. It should enable public health actors and officials to preempt these strategies and develop realistic assessments of the industry's claims.

  3. The impact of dark tetrad traits on political orientation and extremism: an analysis in the course of a presidential election

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Duspara

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Previous research on personality and political attitudes has been conducted in countries where political parties from the center dominate the political system. In the present research (N = 675, we focus on the relationship between the dark side of human personality and political orientation and extremism, respectively, in the course of a presidential election where the two candidates represent either left-wing or right-wing political policies. Narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and everyday sadism were associated with right-wing political orientation, whereas narcissism and psychopathy were associated with political extremism. Moreover, the relationships between personality and right-wing political orientation and extremism, respectively, were relatively independent from each other. Keywords: Political science, Sociology, Psychology

  4. Radiation risks: critical analysis and commentary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Bruce; Stiles, Melissa; Patterson, Jeff

    2012-01-01

    1) To review and summarize what is known about the health risks of radiation. 2) To compare risks from medical imaging to background radiation and to exposure from nuclear accidents. Literature review and summative critical analysis. Over the past several years, physicians and patients have become increasingly aware of the potential risks of radiation exposure from medical imaging. The Fukushima disaster further heightened public awareness of hazards associated with radiation and radioactivity. In the case of medical imaging, small but real risks of cancer and other radiation-induced disease must be balanced against potential benefits of improved diagnostic accuracy. The ethical principle of autonomy tells us that patients should be informed of potential benefits and harms of radiation imaging, and should participate in shared decision making. In the case of nuclear power, benefits and especially harms are exceptionally difficult to estimate accurately. Nevertheless, we know that hazards from today's nuclear power plants will persist for many years, affecting future generations not benefiting from electrical power generated today. A deeper and more widespread understanding of potential benefits and harms of personal and societal choices relating to radiation exposure may lead to improved medical and societal decision-making. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Analysis of Operational Risks in Shipbuilding Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela MATEI

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Our paper emphasizes the opportunities provided both for the academic research and companies by using a proposed model of analyzing the operational risks within business in general and shipbuilding industry in particular. The model aims to display the loss distribution from the operational risk for each business line/ type of event, based on frequency and severity estimation of the events. These estimations are derived mainly from the history logs of internal loss events. The calculations extend over a certain period of time in the future with a certain level of confidence. It should also be mentioned that the proposed model estimates unexpected losses, without making any suppositions concerning the values of the expected and unexpected losses. Several ideas could be extracted by analyzing and synthesizing the theoretical models from available literature. These ideas were analyzed in order to develop a model for operational risk analysis that is adapted to shipbuilding. This paper describes a new model, which can be applied to the naval industry to quantify operational risks.

  6. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  7. Constructing public and political discourse on alcohol issues: towards a framework for analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Anders; Gunter, Barrie

    2007-01-01

    To examine the possibilities for research into news reporting and its role in reflecting and informing public and political beliefs and action in relation to alcohol and drinking practices. Studies on media and alcohol, focusing on the role of media in relation to alcohol consumption and drinking-related practices, policies and beliefs. Most research on alcohol and media has focused on either advertising or entertainment media content, rather than on news reporting and its wider social implications. The role of news reporting could usefully be widened. We offer a framework for analysing the role of news media in relation to public debate and practice with regard to alcohol and drinking.

  8. Placing the public library – a comparative analysis of political perceptions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Evjen, Sunniva

    2012-01-01

    expressed by the professional field, library legitimization, as well as plans and visions for the future library. I have addressed these questions through a comparative case study done in three cities; Oslo, Aarhus, and Birmingham, and taken a qualitative approach, using interviews with local politicians...... the library service is subjected to political planning – both locally and nationally. I find it likely that a stronger degree of formal vii institutionalisation will render the public library service more resilient when faced with external pressure, in the form of technological or economic challenges....

  9. A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jones, Maggie E. C.; Ørregård Nielsen, Morten; Popiel, Michael Ksawery

    for the model parameters and tests of the hypotheses of interest. In the long-run equilibrium, we find that support for the Progressive Conservative Party was higher during periods of high interest rates and low unemployment, while support for the Liberal Party was higher during periods of low interest rates...... and high unemployment. We also test and reject the notion that party support is driven only by relative (to the United States) economic performance. Indeed, our findings suggest that US macroeconomic variables do not enter the long-run equilibrium of Canadian economic voting (political opinion poll support...

  10. The theoretical aspects of the methodology of risk analysis in chosen business enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef Zrůst

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The risk, crisis, crisis management, crisis regulation and risk management are currently often used terms. It is late to search a cause of crisis in time, when the crisis had broken out and their destructive effects are displaying. It is more suitable to focus on preventive control of business assets. The goal of this article is to suggest a methodical process of risk analysis with focus on protection of carrying business assets. The suggested methodical process of the analysis comes out a persuasion that primary attention is needed to give a protection of carrying business assets. Carrying assets are those which create potentials of business success and in case of their destroying, damaging or loss will originate to subject major or even existence loss. To such chosen carrying business assets are identified threats coming out parts of macro environment (political, legal, economical, social, demographic, technical and technological, ecological and threats from an field environment. To the identification of threats in field environment is used an analysis of five forces model according Porter. As a final step of the suggested methodical process of risk analysis is a creation of a risk matrix to each carrying asset. In this matrix is drawn the risk, which is described with a qualified estimation of occurrence its proba­bility and with an estimation of amount of possible damage, which can be caused by risk. According location the identified risk in the risk matrix is suggested the way of the regulation single risks.It is possible to choose between five basic strategies: Strategy “Take”, Strategy of crisis plans, Strategy of risk treatment, Strategy of risk transfer and Strategy “Terminate”. Single strategies are possible to combine between each other. The combination is suitable in cases, when there is threaten a big loss with a high probability.

  11. Risk analysis: assessing uncertainties beyond expected values and probabilities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aven, T. (Terje)

    2008-01-01

    ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 Selectionofanalysismethod ... 3.2.1 Checklist-basedapproach... 3.2.2 Risk-basedapproach ... 29 29 34 35 36 4 The risk analysis process: risk a...

  12. Machine Learning-Based Content Analysis: Automating the analysis of frames and agendas in political communication research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burscher, B.

    2016-01-01

    We used machine learning to study policy issues and frames in political messages. With regard to frames, we investigated the automation of two content-analytical tasks: frame coding and frame identification. We found that both tasks can be successfully automated by means of machine learning

  13. Methodologies for risk analysis in slope instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernabeu Garcia, M.; Diaz Torres, J. A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an approach to the different methodologies used in conducting landslide risk maps so that the reader can get a basic knowledge about how to proceed in its development. The landslide hazard maps are increasingly demanded by governments. This is because due to climate change, deforestation and the pressure exerted by the growth of urban centers, damage caused by natural phenomena is increasing each year, making this area of work a field of study with increasing importance. To explain the process of mapping a journey through each of the phases of which it is composed is made: from the study of the types of slope movements and the necessary management of geographic information systems (GIS) inventories and landslide susceptibility analysis, threat, vulnerability and risk. (Author)

  14. Claps and Claptrap: The Analysis of Speaker-Audience Interaction in Political Speeches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Bull

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Significant insights have been gained into how politicians interact with live audiences through the detailed microanalysis of video and audio recordings, especially of rhetorical techniques used by politicians to invite applause. The overall aim of this paper is to propose a new theoretical model of speaker-audience interaction in set-piece political speeches, based on the concept of dialogue between speaker and audience. Research is reviewed not only on applause, but also on other audience responses, such as laughter, cheering, chanting, and booing. Research is also reviewed on other factors besides rhetorical devices, in particular, delivery, speech content, and uninvited applause. Although these analyses are based primarily on British speeches, they also include recent studies of speeches delivered in both Japan and the USA. This cross-cultural perspective, it is proposed, provides significant insights into the role of political rhetoric in speaker-audience interaction, which may be usefully conceptualized in terms of broader cross-cultural differences between collectivist and individualist societies.

  15. LOBBYING AND GR-PRACTICES IN EASTERN EUROPE AND THE BALTIC STATES: THE POLITICAL-SOCIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. M. Bolshakova

    2017-01-01

    only negative publications in mass media and information noise. The analysis  conducted in the article shows that concerns about the transparency of the lobbying process gave way to other concerns:  that the information provided is not neutral and engaged by certain  pressure groups, and that lobbying pays excessive attention to the  interests of elites and wealthy segments of the population (this view  supports every third respondent . However, with respect to the  positive aspects of the lobbying process, respondents clearly  indicated to ensure the participation of representatives of business groups and socio-economic sphere of citizens in the political process  (half of the respondents and the use of relevant technical and  scientific information corresponding to the needs of lobbyists and  interest groups to information (supports every third respondent. Thus, summing up the above, it should be noted that the question of which groups meet the definition of “lobbyist” sixty respondents  called trade associations, among others, the most popular answers were the agency to influence the public policy (58% and professional organizations (57%. Non-governmental organizations were called lobbyists more than half of respondents (51%, and the company – less than half (47%. Trade unions are considered lobbyists only 40% of respondents.

  16. Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartram, B.W.; Vaughan, F.R.; Englehart, D.R.W.

    1991-01-01

    The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value

  17. The politics of reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsburg, F; Rapp, R

    1991-01-01

    The topic of human reproduction encompasses events throughout the human and especially female life-cycle as well as ideas and practices surrounding fertility, birth, and child care. Most of the scholarship on the subject, up through the 1960s, was based on cross-cultural surveys focused on the beliefs, norms, and values surrounding reproductive behaviors. Multiple methodologies and subspecialties, and fields like social history, human biology, and demography were utilized for the analysis. The concept of the politics of reproduction synthesizes local and global perspectives. The themes investigated include: the concept of reproduction, population control, and the internationalization of state and market interests (new reproductive technologies); social movements and contested domains; medicalization and its discontents; fertility and its control; adolescence and teen pregnancy; birth; birth attendants; the construction of infancy and the politics of child survival; rethinking the demographic transition; networks of nurturance; and meanings of menopause. The medicalization of reproduction is a central issue of studies of birth, midwifery, infertility, and reproductive technologies. Scholars have also analyzed different parts of the female life-cycle as medical problems. Other issues worth analysis include the internationalization of adoption and child care workers; the crisis of infertility of low-income and minority women who are not candidates for expensive reproductive technologies; the concerns of women at high risk for HIV whose cultural status depends on their fertility; questions of reproduction concerning, lesbians and gay men (artificial insemination and discrimination in child rearing); the study of menopause; and fatherhood. New discourse analysis is used to analyze state eugenic policies; conflicts over Western neocolonial influences in which women's status as childbearers represent nationalist interests; fundamentalist attacks on abortion rights; and

  18. India in search of right Universal Health Coverage (UHC) model: The risks of implementing UHC in the absence of political demand by the citizen

    OpenAIRE

    Kumar, Raman; Roy, Pritam

    2016-01-01

    Amid the global push for Universal Health Coverage (UHC), the agenda is being set for India′s health care. In the absence of a constitutional mandate, a national policy and citizen-led political demand for UHC, there exist specific risks in rushing toward its implementation in India. As the debate of UHC continues, the health-care delivery system in India is at cross roads. UHC in India could take two different trajectories. The first one takes India toward becoming "Global Bazaar" of morbidi...

  19. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative

  20. From politics on documentary to documentary politics: notes for a perspective of analysis. Da poltica no documentrio s polticas do documentrio: notas para uma perspectiva

    OpenAIRE

    Csar Geraldo Guimares; Victor Guimares

    2012-01-01

    Facing the upgrowing interest about the political dimension of documentary cinema, this article compares two ways of apprehension and points out some theoretical and methodological choices there implied. We emphasize the prevalence of representation as an analytical operator in the studies about the theme and practice the proposition of an alternative regard, which is based on the concept of distribution of the sensible as a central reference and it takes into account the ways of production o...

  1. Noticing 'us' and 'them' constructions: The pedagogical implications of a critical discourse analysis of referring in political discourse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susan Brokensha

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In the past decade, there have been a number of discourse analyses of the political in South Africa such as Botha’s (2001 study of deictic expressions in a speech by Thabo Mbeki, Moodley’s (2006 discursive analysis of the South African government’s Information and Communication Technologies, poverty, and development discourse, and Moon’s (2006 investigation into the discursive construction of narratives generated during the Truth and Reconciliation Commission. However, how such studies may be exploited to foster students’ critical thinking about language use in a variety of communicative contexts has not been explored in much detail. Within the framework of Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA, the aim of this paper is to examine the phenomenon of referring in a political speech by Robert Mugabe, focusing specifically on his use of spatial, temporal, and social indexicals to construct us versus them territories. Next, the constructivist principles that may be adopted to assist second-year Linguistics students in developing an awareness that referring is not a neutral phenomenon are identified.

  2. Cleantech Venture Investors and Energy Policy Risk: An Exploratory Analysis of Regulatory Risk Management Strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Bürer, Mary Jean; Wüstenhagen, Rolf

    2008-01-01

    The energy industry is a typical example of a heavily regulated industry, and particularly large incumbent energy firms have developed significant expertise in non-market strategies (or corporate political activity). New entrants to the energy industry, such as clean energy technology ventures, are also exposed to regulatory risk (and opportunity), but they do not have the means to engage in non-market strategies to a similar extent as large incumbent firms. On the other hand, the success of ...

  3. Risk analysis methodology designed for small and medium enterprises

    OpenAIRE

    Ladislav Beránek; Radim Remeš

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to present risk analysis procedures successfully applied by several Czech small and medium enterprises. The paper presents in detail the individual steps we use in risk analysis of small and medium enterprises in the Czech Republic. Suggested method to risk analysis is based on the modification of the FRAP methodology and the BITS recommendation. Modifications of both methodologies are described in detail. We propose modified risk analysis methodology which is quick a...

  4. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  5. The political economy of maize production and poverty reduction in Zambia: analysis of the last 50 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanjra, Munir A; Culas, Richard J

    2011-01-01

    Poverty and food security are endemic issues in much of sub-Saharan Africa. To eradicate extreme poverty and hunger in the region remains a key Millennium Development Goal. Many African governments have pursued economic reforms and agricultural policy interventions in order to accelerate economic growth that reduces poverty faster. Agricultural policy regimes in Zambia in the last 50 years (1964–2008) are examined here to better understand their likely impact on food security and poverty, with an emphasis on the political economy of maize subsidy policies. The empirical work draws on secondary sources and an evaluation of farm household data from three villages in the Kasama District of Zambia from 1986/87 and 1992/93 to estimate a two-period econometric model to examine the impact on household welfare in a pre- and post-reform period. The analysis shows that past interventions had mixed effects on enhancing the production of food crops such as maize. While such reforms were politically popular, it did not necessarily translate into household-level productivity or welfare gains in the short term. The political economy of reforms needs to respond to the inherent diversity among the poor rural and urban households. The potential of agriculture to generate a more pro-poor growth process depends on the creation of new market opportunities that most benefit the rural poor. The state should encourage private sector investments for addressing infrastructure constraints to improve market access and accelerate more pro-poor growth through renewed investments in agriculture, rural infrastructure, gender inclusion, smarter subsidies and regional food trade. However, the financing of such investments poses significant challenges. There is a need to address impediments to the effective participation of public private investors to generate more effective poverty reduction and hunger eradication programmes. This article also explores the opportunities for new public

  6. The mechanism of influence of interest groups in the European Union: political and sociological analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. S. Kanevsky

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Interaction between interest groups and political institutions is one of the cornerstones of the European Union policy making process. Although majority of Russian and foreign works dedicated to lobbying and decision making in the EU, concentrate on a governmental stadial system and normative procedures that regulate interest groups access to policy making centers. Such institutional approach doesn’t clarify why the EU has concrete policies, why not all interest groups are able to win, who sets the agenda and in whose interests decisions are made. Current article, using contemporary theories and research, analyzes process of interaction between interest groups and governmental structures in the EU. It also proposes explanations of wins and losses in the policy making process, trying to answer how interest groups interacts with each other and what patterns can be identified in the process of interest aggregation by governmental structures.

  7. Organizational Loyalty and Organizational Commitment: An Analysis in Terms of Political Party Organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akyay Uygur

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Sense of belonging is a psychological condition in which loyalties are divided into two. Organizational commitment, the value of the individual within the organization to accept and hear the desire to remain in the organization as it is defined. Identify a specific individual's loyalty to the organizational integration organizations, in the form of sincere commitment and dedication has been defined. This study aimed to determine the level of organizational loyalty to Turkey's third largest political party (AKP, CHP, MHP, feeling of belonging to the organization aims to determine the level of loyalty of the individual. Organizational loyalty created in accordance with this scale in city information was collected from 674 people. Accordingly, the highest level of organizational loyalty to the party MHP, the second CHP and third place in the AKP has emerged.

  8. Politics of oil in Venezuela: A decision-making analysis of PDVSA's internationalisation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baena, Cesar E.

    The high degree of international vertical integration achieved by the Venezuelan state oil enterprise, Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA), has placed it among the most important oil multinationals (MNs). The policy of creating downstream outlets through the establishment of foreign direct investments (FDIs) in the form of refinery assets was given the term of 'internationalisation'. By analysing PDVSA's internationalisation policy, the thesis explores the difficulties encountered by a major state-owned enterprise (SOE) from a developing country in its efforts to grow beyond national borders. The study focuses on the impact of democratic bargaining on the process of oil policymaking in Venezuela, stressing the constraints posed by politics on PDVSA's efforts to expand its foreign operations. Specifically, the study examines the intricate policymaking process that shaped the origins and the development of PDVSA's internationalisation policy, underlying the events and factors that influenced each one of its three distinguishable phases: adoption, formulation, and implementation. The tensions between politics and corporate strategy are highlighted at the core of the policymaking process. The study also looks at the relationship between the oil industry and the other two key decision-making centres involved in the oil policymaking process: the executive and Congress. In exploring the ways in which each one of them sought to influence policy outcome, the study attempts to gain insight into the main factors that prompted the tensions among the policy actors involved. Three environments, or pressure-generating centres, constantly exert influence on the oil industry: the oil market, the political context and the government's financial situation. By seeking to determine the industry's response to their pervasive influence on policy formulation and implementation, this research ascertains the extent to which these variables influenced the decision-making process that

  9. Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gajewski, S.; Glantz, C.; Harper, B.; Bilyard, G.; Miller, P.

    1995-10-01

    Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare

  10. Political Predation and Economic Development

    OpenAIRE

    Azam, Jean-Paul; Bates, Robert H; Biais, Bruno

    2005-01-01

    Economic growth occurs as resources are reallocated from the traditional sector to the more productive modern sector. Yet, the latter is more vulnerable to political predation. Hence, political risk hinders development. We analyse a politico-economic game between citizens and governments, whose type (benevolent or predatory) is unknown to the citizens. In equilibrium, opportunistic governments mix between predation and restraint. As long as restraint is observed, political expectations improv...

  11. On the measurement of political instability and its impact on economic growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong-A-Pin, R.

    We examine the multidimensionality of political instability using 25 political instability indicators in an Exploratory Factor Analysis. We find that political instability has four dimensions: politically motivated violence, mass civil protest. instability within the political regime. and

  12. Gender quotas for women in national politics: A comparative analysis across development thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosen, Jennifer

    2017-08-01

    Women's share of global lower or single house parliamentary seats has increased by over 70% over the course of the 21st century. Yet these increases have not been uniform across countries. Rather countries with low levels of socioeconomic development have outpaced developed democracies in terms of the gains made in the formal political representation of women. One reasonable explanation for this trend is the adoption in many poorer countries of national gender quota legislation, that is, affirmative action laws intended to compensate for sex discrimination in the electoral process. Yet, cross-national analyses examining quotas as an explanatory factor typically use a simple binary (yes/no) variable that either conflates the diverse intra-quota variations into a single variable or includes only one part of the many quota variations. By contrast, using an originally compiled dataset that includes 167 countries from 1992 to 2012, this paper employs measures of gender quota legislation that capture the complexity and considerable diversity of existing quota legislation. These measures allow us to identify the specific factors that have helped so many less developed countries rise to the top of international rankings in recent years. The findings indicate that the effect of each type of gender quota, as well as other explanatory variables, do not operate in the same way across all countries. Specifically, voluntary political party quotas are substantially more effective in developed countries, while reserved seat quotas are only significant in least developed countries. Electoral candidate quotas, on the other hand, can be significant across all countries, however only have a positive effect when they are accompanied by placement mandates that ensure women are placed in winnable positions, sanctions for non-compliance that are significant enough to force adherence, and a minimum mandated threshold of at least 30%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Twitter-Based Analysis of the Dynamics of Collective Attention to Political Parties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eom, Young-Ho; Puliga, Michelangelo; Smailović, Jasmina; Mozetič, Igor; Caldarelli, Guido

    2015-01-01

    Large-scale data from social media have a significant potential to describe complex phenomena in the real world and to anticipate collective behaviors such as information spreading and social trends. One specific case of study is represented by the collective attention to the action of political parties. Not surprisingly, researchers and stakeholders tried to correlate parties' presence on social media with their performances in elections. Despite the many efforts, results are still inconclusive since this kind of data is often very noisy and significant signals could be covered by (largely unknown) statistical fluctuations. In this paper we consider the number of tweets (tweet volume) of a party as a proxy of collective attention to the party, identify the dynamics of the volume, and show that this quantity has some information on the election outcome. We find that the distribution of the tweet volume for each party follows a log-normal distribution with a positive autocorrelation of the volume over short terms, which indicates the volume has large fluctuations of the log-normal distribution yet with a short-term tendency. Furthermore, by measuring the ratio of two consecutive daily tweet volumes, we find that the evolution of the daily volume of a party can be described by means of a geometric Brownian motion (i.e., the logarithm of the volume moves randomly with a trend). Finally, we determine the optimal period of averaging tweet volume for reducing fluctuations and extracting short-term tendencies. We conclude that the tweet volume is a good indicator of parties' success in the elections when considered over an optimal time window. Our study identifies the statistical nature of collective attention to political issues and sheds light on how to model the dynamics of collective attention in social media.

  14. A political economy analysis of decision-making on natural disaster preparedness in Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen C. Rono-Bett

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Most deaths from natural disasters occur in low- or middle-income countries; among them, countries in the Horn of Africa – where Kenya lies. Between September 2015 and September 2016, 23.4 million people in this region faced food insecurity because of the 2015 El Niño, characterised by floods and droughts. The importance of effective government decision-making on preparedness and response are critical to saving lives during such disasters. But this decision-making process occurs in a political context which is marred by uncertainty with other factors at play. Yet, good practice requires making investments on a ‘no-regrets’ basis. This article looks at the factors influencing Kenya’s decision-making process for natural disasters, the preparedness for the 2015 El Niño as a case study. I explored what stakeholders understand by ‘no-regrets investments’ and its application. I assessed financial allocations by government and donors to disaster preparedness. Based on key informant interviews, focus group discussions and financial analyses, this article presents evidence at national and subnational levels. The findings indicate that in making decisions relating to preparedness, the government seeks information primarily from sources it trusts – other government departments, its communities and the media. With no existing legal frameworks guiding Kenya’s disaster preparedness, the coordination of preparedness is not strong. It appears that there is a lack of political will to prioritise these frameworks. The no-regrets approach is applied predominantly by non-state actors. Because there have been ‘non-events’ in the past, government has become overcautious in committing resources on a no-regrets basis. Government allocation to preparedness exceeds donor funding by almost tenfold.

  15. Probabilistic methods in fire-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandyberry, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The first part of this work outlines a method for assessing the frequency of ignition of a consumer product in a building and shows how the method would be used in an example scenario utilizing upholstered furniture as the product and radiant auxiliary heating devices (electric heaters, wood stoves) as the ignition source. Deterministic thermal models of the heat-transport processes are coupled with parameter uncertainty analysis of the models and with a probabilistic analysis of the events involved in a typical scenario. This leads to a distribution for the frequency of ignition for the product. In second part, fire-risk analysis as currently used in nuclear plants is outlines along with a discussion of the relevant uncertainties. The use of the computer code COMPBRN is discussed for use in the fire-growth analysis along with the use of response-surface methodology to quantify uncertainties in the code's use. Generalized response surfaces are developed for temperature versus time for a cable tray, as well as a surface for the hot gas layer temperature and depth for a room of arbitrary geometry within a typical nuclear power plant compartment. These surfaces are then used to simulate the cable tray damage time in a compartment fire experiment

  16. Bridging political economy analysis and critical institutionalism: an approach to help analyse institutional change for rural water services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen David Jones

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues that approaches to understanding local institutionsfor natural resource management based on “critical institutionalism” (Cleaver2012, which emphasises the importance of improvisation and adaptationacross different scales, can be placed within broader political economy analysisframeworks for assessing challenges in public services delivery from national tolocal levels. The paper uses such an extended political economy analysis approachto understand the role of the international NGO WaterAid and its partners in Mali inrelation to institutions for financing rural water services, drawing on collaborativeresearch undertaken in 2010 and 2011. The case study shows that WaterAid’sapproach can be understood through elements of both mainstream and criticalinstitutionalist thinking. At local government level, WaterAid primarily promotesformal institutional arrangements, which exhibit the challenge of “reforms assignals” (Andrews 2013, where institutional reforms appear to happen but lackthe intended function. However, the work of WaterAid’s partners at communitylevel supports processes of “institutional bricolage” through which they try togradually work with local actors to find ways of ‘best fit’ for financing rural waterservices which adapt existing local practices into new arrangements.

  17. Spiritual Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric Rambeau

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available According to Foucault, the uprising of the Iranian people in the seventies reveals how much the political force of Islam is due precisely to the fact that it is not principally located in the field of politics, but in that of ethics. Religion (Shiite Islam appears as the guarantee of real change in the very mode of existence. This spiritual politics is marginalized by Marxism, where it is understood as a discontinuity in relation to proper politics, given that the latter is necessarily linked to a strategic rationalization. By indicating, at this juncture of what is intolerable, the living source and the critical impulse of the Foucauldian ethics, this spiritual politics also leads to recognize in the concept of “subjectivation” a dimension that might escape the circle of freedom as determined by a total immanence to power. This conceptual possibility is highly present in the aporias of the Foucauldian concept of the “relation to oneself”, both as a first condition of governmentality and the ultimate point of resistance against any governmentality. It thus reveals the difficulties in relating political to ethical subjectivation.

  18. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. An Emerging New Risk Analysis Science: Foundations and Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aven, Terje

    2017-09-07

    To solve real-life problems-such as those related to technology, health, security, or climate change-and make suitable decisions, risk is nearly always a main issue. Different types of sciences are often supporting the work, for example, statistics, natural sciences, and social sciences. Risk analysis approaches and methods are also commonly used, but risk analysis is not broadly accepted as a science in itself. A key problem is the lack of explanatory power and large uncertainties when assessing risk. This article presents an emerging new risk analysis science based on novel ideas and theories on risk analysis developed in recent years by the risk analysis community. It builds on a fundamental change in thinking, from the search for accurate predictions and risk estimates, to knowledge generation related to concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods, and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and (in a broad sense) manage risk. Examples are used to illustrate the importance of this distinct/separate risk analysis science for solving risk problems, supporting science in general and other disciplines in particular. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Development of probabilistic risk analysis library

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soga, Shota; Kirimoto, Yukihiro; Kanda, Kenichi

    2015-01-01

    We developed a library that is designed to perform level 1 Probabilistic Risk Analysis using Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). In particular, our goal is to develop a library that will allow Japanese electric utilities to take the advantages of BDD that can solve Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) models analytically. Using BDD, the library supports negation in FT which allows more flexible modeling of ET/FT. The library is written by C++ within an object-oriented framework using open source software. The library itself is a header-only library so that Japanese electric utilities can take advantages of its transparency to speed up development and to build their own software for their specific needs. In this report, the basic capabilities of the library is briefly described. In addition, several applications of the library are demonstrated including validation of MCS evaluation of PRA model and evaluation of corrective and preventive maintenance considering common cause failure. (author)

  1. Temporality, causality and trajectories: comparative historical analysis in social and political sciences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hélder Ferreira Do Vale

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The article closely examines the comparative methodology proposed under the “Comparative Historical Analysis” (CHA approach. The purpose of the article is to highlight the advantages gained with the application of this comparative methodological approach in the interpretation of current complex events. In doing so, the article provides concrete guidelines on how to apply this approach to enhance historical comparisons. In attempting to accomplish these goals, the article pursues three tasks. First, it shows how historical comparisons are useful for the identification of the patterns, mechanisms and dynamics behind complex process in social and political sciences. Second, the article explains the methodological advantages of using CHA in complex historical processes and exploring some methodological innovations. And lastly, the article applies the CHA approach to two current events: the emergence of the armed group “Islamic State” and the Ukrainian-Russian territorial dispute. The article concludes that CHA provides an innovative comparative framework to understand complex historical process across countries.

  2. Climates of risk: a field analysis of global climate change in US media discourse, 1997-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnett, John

    2010-11-01

    How are industry and environmentalist discourses of climate risk related to dominant scientific and political discourses? This study operationalizes Bourdieu's concept of symbolic capital in order to map dimensions of risk description and prescription onto a journalistic field of industry, environmentalist, scientific, and political media. Results show that conventional definitions of risk mirror an opposition between scientific and political discourses. Prescriptions for action on risk are partly autonomous from definitions however. Environmentalist and scientific media feature more proactive discourse, and industry and political media feature more reactive discourse. Implications for future research on climate risk and relational studies of media discourse are discussed.

  3. The Political Opportunity of the Outsider

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lubinski, Christina

    This paper examines the political strategies of two German firms—Siemens and I.G. Farben—in interwar India as a way to consider how multinational enterprises (MNEs) deal with political risk. The interwar period was characterized by rising political risks throughout the global economy, as conflicts...... between developed national economies rose in the wake of World War I, as anti-­‐colonial and communist movements gained ground, and international monetary instability increased. Yet, far from retrenching from the global economy, German MNEs capitalized on the growing political risks by developing...... political strategies and cultivating political capabilities that allowed them to successfully pursue international markets in geopolitically turbulent times. Identifying their mechanisms and viewing them longitudinally shows MNEs as political actors, not just adapting and dealing with novel political...

  4. Environmental risk analysis for nanomaterials: Review and evaluation of frameworks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2012-01-01

    In response to the challenges of conducting traditional human health and ecological risk assessment for nanomaterials (NM), a number of alternative frameworks have been proposed for NM risk analysis. This paper evaluates various risk analysis frameworks proposed for NM based on a number of criteria...... to occupational settings with minor environmental considerations, and most have not been thoroughly tested on a wide range of NM. Care should also be taken when selecting the most appropriate risk analysis strategy for a given risk context. Given this, we recommend a multi-faceted approach to assess...... the environmental risks of NM as well as increased applications and testing of the proposed frameworks for different NM....

  5. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  6. When worlds collide. Social science, politics, and the Rind et al. (1998). Child sexual abuse meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lilienfeld, Scott O

    2002-03-01

    A 1998 meta-analysis by B. Rind, P. Tromovitch, and R. Bauserman in Psychological Bulletin indicated that the relations between child sexual abuse and later psychopathology were weak in magnitude. Shortly thereafter, this article was condemned by media personality Dr. Laura Schlessinger and numerous conservative organizations and was denounced by the United States Congress. In addition, the American Psychological Association (APA) distanced itself from the authors' conclusions. This incident raises questions regarding (a) authors' responsibilities concerning the reporting of politically controversial findings, (b) academic and scientific freedom, (c) the role of the APA in disabusing the public and media of logical errors and fallacies, and (d) the substantial gap between popular and academic psychology and the responsibility of the APA to narrow that gap.

  7. Genetic Analysis Aimed at the Identification of Appropriated Children: Political and Scientific Construction of “Nature” and Kinship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabina Amantze Regueiro

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with the genetic analysis aimed at the identification of children appropriated during the last Argentine military dictatorship. For this purpose, the discussions on the nature-culture dichotomy are considered, with an approach to kinship as a political construction from the searching action of Abuelas de Plaza de Mayo (Grandmothers, promoting scientific techniques for the “discovery” of the biological bond. In this sense, the forms of legal construction of families connected to the identification; the subsequent constitution of family relationships, as well as certain social effects that transcend them are also studied. In this way, it will be argued that even in cases in which kinship seems to come to an end in the blood bond, the biological aspect does not exist beyond the social and symbolic practices.

  8. Insurability of Cyber Risk: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Biener, Christian; Eling, Martin; Wirfs, Jan Hendrik

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the adequacy of insurance for managing cyber risk. To this end, we extract 994 cases of cyber losses from an operational risk database and analyse their statistical properties. Based on the empirical results and recent literature, we investigate the insurability of cyber risk by systematically reviewing the set of criteria introduced by Berliner (1982). Our findings emphasise the distinct characteristics of cyber risks compared with other operational risks and bring to li...

  9. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

  10. Risk Analysis Methods for Deepwater Port Oil Transfer Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-06-01

    This report deals with the risk analysis methodology for oil spills from the oil transfer systems in deepwater ports. Failure mode and effect analysis in combination with fault tree analysis are identified as the methods best suited for the assessmen...

  11. Economy and energy politic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, J.M.

    1992-01-01

    This book, divided into four parts, describes, first, energy consumption and national economy growth. In a second part, the irresistible ascent of coal, natural gas and petroleum international markets is studied. In the third part, energy politic is investigated: exchanges releasing, prices deregulation, contestation of power industry monopoly, energy national market and common energetic politic, single market concept. In the last part, global risks and world-wide regulations are given: demand, energy resources, technical changes, comparative evaluations between fossil, nuclear and renewable energies, environment, investments financing and international cooperation. 23 refs., 14 figs., 16 tabs

  12. The impact of political culture on the functioning of democracy: analysis of ideas of Alexis de Tocqueville

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. I. Prokopchuk

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Based on the works of the French scientist A. de Tocqueville analyzed systematically constructive and destructive influence on political culture and the institutionalization of democracy in the society. In Tocqueville’s works may be divided into 2 patterns of political culture: a American liberal-democratic; b French authoritarian. Generalized thinker idea of values, based on which the American political culture of his time as follows: 1. Man put on an equal footing with the public. 2. Spread «spirit of the law» for all American society in general. 3. Understanding people, which is the main subject of politics and power source, as a combination of highly developed, independent, self-sufficient individuals. 4. Policy - one of the areas of self-realization and even for the average individual. In the system of value orientations policy covers the Americans first place or not. 5. Antypaternalizm in settings in which people, to the government and its agencies include disbelief, with potential worries, turning to government assistance only when absolutely can not do without it. 6. Social life is characterized by pluralism. In civil Sus-ety, there are many «power points» impact on the state by the parties, associations, media, opposition. 7. The political behavior of Americans is characterized by an open, constructive. A common policy is not the only type of collective participation (through parties and associations, but also individual. 8. The tendency of American political culture to the center, which was manifested in the unpopularity of political extremism as a type of political behavior on the part of leaders, parties, mass. 9. Legitimate functioning of the political opposition. This opposition political organizations in the United States in peace and enjoy his political activities only through legal means. 10. Formation of «money» elite and its deliberate removal of professions-term politics. Generalized Tocqueville features that define

  13. Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives

  14. Risk analysis in nuclear energy use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molak, B.

    1984-01-01

    In nuclear energy like other energy sources risk is present. The risk assessment and comparison with proposed risk criteria in nuclear energy user country, need to be measured for nuclear power plant site selection, construction, operation and maintenance. Experience of long-term nuclear energy user countries need to be used in the risk assesment and criteria creation. In article are shown results of risk assessment in many human activities. Nuclear power plants accidents categorization is given. There are accidents shown which occurred at nuclear power plants. Basic information about probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear power plant site evaluation are given. (author)

  15. The Cold War legacy of regulatory risk analysis: The Atomic Energy Commission and radiation safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boland, Joseph B.

    From its inception in 1946 the Atomic Energy Commission pioneered the use of risk analysis as a mode of regulatory rationality and political rhetoric, yet historical treatments of risk analysis nearly always overlook the important role it played in the administration of atomic energy during the early Cold War. How this absence from history has been achieved and why it characterizes most historical accounts are the subjects of Chapter II. From there, this study goes on to develop the thesis that the advent of the atomic bomb was a world-shattering event that forced the Truman administration to choose between two novel alternatives: (1) movement towards global governance based initially on cooperative control of atomic energy or (2) unsparing pursuit of nuclear superiority. I refer to these as nuclear internationalism and nuclear nationalism, respectively. Each defined a social risk hierarchy. With the triumph of nuclear nationalism, nuclear annihilation was designated the greatest risk and a strong nuclear defense the primary means of prevention. The AEC's mission in the 1950s consisted of the rapid development of a nuclear arsenal, continual improvements in weapons technologies, and the promotion of nuclear power. The agency developed a risk-based regulatory framework through its dominant position within the National Committee on Radiation Protection. It embraced a technocratic model of risk analysis whose articulation and application it controlled, largely in secret. It used this to undergird a public rhetoric of reassurance and risk minimization. In practice, safety officials adjusted exposure levels within often wide parameters and with considerable fluidity in order to prevent safety concerns from interfering with operations. Secrecy, the political climate of the time, and a lack of accountability enabled the agency to meld technical assessments with social value judgments in a manner reflective of nuclear nationalism's risk hierarchy. In the late fifties

  16. The application of risk analysis to international trade in animals and animal products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellar, J A

    1993-12-01

    In an era when arduous land and sea journeys separated exporting and recipient nations, the duration and stress of transport dictated localised sourcing of stock and provided an implicit quarantine. Clinically latent infection, which remained undetected prior to embarkation, often surfaced and was eliminated before reaching the importing country. Many nations which would not accept the risk of importation, on clinical grounds, could effectively isolate themselves by prohibiting entry. Passive acceptance characterised much of the response of industry to the perceived wisdom behind such decisions. Advances in transportation technology now permit the accumulation of an export consignment from across an entire country. The assembled shipment is a sentinel for the infection experience of the national herd. The journey to the final destination is measured in hours, rather than weeks. Parallel diagnostic and epidemiological advances face the challenge of compensating for the risks attendant in such widespread and rapid sourcing of stock. Nations which judge the risks as unacceptable face a concerted legal challenge on a series of levels, both domestic and international. Refusal of legal importation can be circumvented easily through the smuggling of germ plasm. National Veterinary Services must respond to the economic, social and political realities of this new international trading environment. The means of facing this challenge through quantitative risk analysis are described. The theory of risk analysis, as well as the qualitative and quantitative evolution of the import applications of this analysis, is explained. Current challenges and potential solutions are discussed.

  17. The conversation on political issues on Twitter: an analysis of the participation and frames in the debate on the 'Wert law' and evictions in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Luis Pérez Díaz

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to determine which social agents are involved in the political debate on Twitter and whether the interpretive hegemony of actors that have traditionally been the most prominent is tempered by the challenge of framing shared with audiences. The relationship between the interpretations expressed and the profiles of participants is analyzed in comparison with the frames used by mainstream media. The chosen methodology combines content analysis and discourse analysis techniques on a sample of 1,504 relevant tweets posted on two political issues –the approval of the education law LOMCE and the evictions caused by the crisis, which have also been studied in the front pages of four leading newspapers in Spain. The results show a correlation between political issue singularities, frames and the type of discussion depending on the participants.

  18. Baldomero Sanín Cano in La Nación of Buenos Aires (1909-1957. Newspapers, diplomatics and international political analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Rubiano Muñoz

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Baldomero Sanín Cano was one of Colombians most prominent thinkers of the twen- tieth century. This essay seeks to outline the critical intellectual profile setting its sight on the newspapers, diplomatics and international politics analysis. The main objective is to expose these facets and stimulate a rereading of Colombian thinker who was a correspondent and editor of the newspaper La Nación of Buenos Aires (1918-1931, diplomat in London (1911-1914 and Buenos Aires (1933-1935, and even national and international political analyst with a history of more than four decades. It also ex- plores some of the analytical scenarios in which the critic contributed: those referring to the sociological analysis of modernity and the critique of mass in the twentieth century. The essay highlights some of the major historical and political contexts in which lies the creative output of Sanín Cano.

  19. Political priorities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ren, Jingzheng

    2016-01-01

    …THE POLITICAL LEADERS of the local government of Chongqing, China, vigorously promote a low-carbon economy and sustainable development to mitigate environmental pollution. Accordingly, research grants focused on this issue were supported by the government, and our group obtained a grant for a pr...... for a project about industrial park planning and design.…In my view, political priorities based on correct decision-making and market requirements are beneficial for researchers.......…THE POLITICAL LEADERS of the local government of Chongqing, China, vigorously promote a low-carbon economy and sustainable development to mitigate environmental pollution. Accordingly, research grants focused on this issue were supported by the government, and our group obtained a grant...

  20. Political CSR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeppesen, Søren; Morsing, Mette

    We engage a discussion of political CSR in SMEs in an African context. Based on critical observations on Western MNC CSR action in emerging economies that holds counterproductive implications for social development, political economists have argued that business profit far more than society...... development in local African communities. Our findings extend political CSR research by directing attention to how the corporate influence in developing economies does not only emerge from MNCs but is also established and retained by SMEs CSR work....... in developing economies from CSR. In this paper we argue that local SMEs CSR work have strong influence in developing economies, that also includes counterproductive influence for social development. Based on empirical findings from African countries, we conceptualize how CSR in African SMEs differ from...

  1. Corporate philanthropy, political influence, and health policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fooks, Gary J; Gilmore, Anna B

    2013-01-01

    The Framework Convention of Tobacco Control (FCTC) provides a basis for nation states to limit the political effects of tobacco industry philanthropy, yet progress in this area is limited. This paper aims to integrate the findings of previous studies on tobacco industry philanthropy with a new analysis of British American Tobacco's (BAT) record of charitable giving to develop a general model of corporate political philanthropy that can be used to facilitate implementation of the FCTC. Analysis of previously confidential industry documents, BAT social and stakeholder dialogue reports, and existing tobacco industry document studies on philanthropy. The analysis identified six broad ways in which tobacco companies have used philanthropy politically: developing constituencies to build support for policy positions and generate third party advocacy; weakening opposing political constituencies; facilitating access and building relationships with policymakers; creating direct leverage with policymakers by providing financial subsidies to specific projects; enhancing the donor's status as a source of credible information; and shaping the tobacco control agenda by shifting thinking on the importance of regulating the market environment for tobacco and the relative risks of smoking for population health. Contemporary BAT social and stakeholder reports contain numerous examples of charitable donations that are likely to be designed to shape the tobacco control agenda, secure access and build constituencies. Tobacco companies' political use of charitable donations underlines the need for tobacco industry philanthropy to be restricted via full implementation of Articles 5.3 and 13 of the FCTC. The model of tobacco industry philanthropy developed in this study can be used by public health advocates to press for implementation of the FCTC and provides a basis for analysing the political effects of charitable giving in other industry sectors which have an impact on public health

  2. Corporate philanthropy, political influence, and health policy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary J Fooks

    Full Text Available The Framework Convention of Tobacco Control (FCTC provides a basis for nation states to limit the political effects of tobacco industry philanthropy, yet progress in this area is limited. This paper aims to integrate the findings of previous studies on tobacco industry philanthropy with a new analysis of British American Tobacco's (BAT record of charitable giving to develop a general model of corporate political philanthropy that can be used to facilitate implementation of the FCTC.Analysis of previously confidential industry documents, BAT social and stakeholder dialogue reports, and existing tobacco industry document studies on philanthropy.The analysis identified six broad ways in which tobacco companies have used philanthropy politically: developing constituencies to build support for policy positions and generate third party advocacy; weakening opposing political constituencies; facilitating access and building relationships with policymakers; creating direct leverage with policymakers by providing financial subsidies to specific projects; enhancing the donor's status as a source of credible information; and shaping the tobacco control agenda by shifting thinking on the importance of regulating the market environment for tobacco and the relative risks of smoking for population health. Contemporary BAT social and stakeholder reports contain numerous examples of charitable donations that are likely to be designed to shape the tobacco control agenda, secure access and build constituencies.Tobacco companies' political use of charitable donations underlines the need for tobacco industry philanthropy to be restricted via full implementation of Articles 5.3 and 13 of the FCTC. The model of tobacco industry philanthropy developed in this study can be used by public health advocates to press for implementation of the FCTC and provides a basis for analysing the political effects of charitable giving in other industry sectors which have an impact on

  3. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixian Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

  4. How Internal Political Efficacy Translates Political Knowledge Into Political Participation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Reichert

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This study presents evidence for the mediation effect of political knowledge through political self-efficacy (i.e. internal political efficacy in the prediction of political participation. It employs an action theoretic approach—by and large grounded on the Theory of Planned Behaviour—and uses data from the German Longitudinal Election Study to examine whether political knowledge has distinct direct effects on voting, conventional, and/or unconventional political participation. It argues that political knowledge raises internal political efficacy and thereby indirectly increases the chance that a citizen will participate in politics. The results of mediated multiple regression analyses yield evidence that political knowledge indeed translates into internal political efficacy, thus it affects political participation of various kinds indirectly. However, internal political efficacy and intentions to participate politically yield simultaneous direct effects only on conventional political participation. Sequentially mediated effects appear for voting and conventional political participation, with political knowledge being mediated by internal political efficacy and subsequently also by behavioural intentions. The mediation patterns for unconventional political participation are less clear though. The discussion accounts for restrictions of this study and points to questions for answer by future research.

  5. How Internal Political Efficacy Translates Political Knowledge Into Political Participation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichert, Frank

    2016-01-01

    This study presents evidence for the mediation effect of political knowledge through political self-efficacy (i.e. internal political efficacy) in the prediction of political participation. It employs an action theoretic approach—by and large grounded on the Theory of Planned Behaviour—and uses data from the German Longitudinal Election Study to examine whether political knowledge has distinct direct effects on voting, conventional, and/or unconventional political participation. It argues that political knowledge raises internal political efficacy and thereby indirectly increases the chance that a citizen will participate in politics. The results of mediated multiple regression analyses yield evidence that political knowledge indeed translates into internal political efficacy, thus it affects political participation of various kinds indirectly. However, internal political efficacy and intentions to participate politically yield simultaneous direct effects only on conventional political participation. Sequentially mediated effects appear for voting and conventional political participation, with political knowledge being mediated by internal political efficacy and subsequently also by behavioural intentions. The mediation patterns for unconventional political participation are less clear though. The discussion accounts for restrictions of this study and points to questions for answer by future research. PMID:27298633

  6. Managing Software Project Risks (Analysis Phase) with Proposed Fuzzy Regression Analysis Modelling Techniques with Fuzzy Concepts

    OpenAIRE

    Elzamly, Abdelrafe; Hussin, Burairah

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to propose new mining techniques by which we can study the impact of different risk management techniques and different software risk factors on software analysis development projects. The new mining technique uses the fuzzy multiple regression analysis techniques with fuzzy concepts to manage the software risks in a software project and mitigating risk with software process improvement. Top ten software risk factors in analysis phase and thirty risk management techni...

  7. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  8. Advanced Risk Analysis for High-Performing Organizations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Alberts, Christopher; Dorofee, Audrey

    2006-01-01

    ...) are not readily identified using traditional risk analysis techniques. High-performing organizations have the basic skills needed to identify and manage these new types of risk, but lack sufficient techniques...

  9. Host-Country Related Risk Factors in International Construction: Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Güzin AYDOGAN

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Internationalization has been on the agenda of construction firms as a strategic option in global competition. Due to globalization every sector including the construction industry has faced with high levels of competitiveness, uncertainty, and risk. International construction involves common risks to domestic construction, as well as risks that are related to the host country. These risks have serious effects on the performance of international projects. Since the sustainable competitiveness of international contractors depends largely on the effective management of these risks, their assessment becomes vital for the success of international contractors. The main aim of this study is to analyse the risks for international construction projects that are related to the host country. Meta-analysis technique is used in order to determine these risks. This paper, therefore, reviews the literature that has been published in four most respected construction and management journals, these being; Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Journal of Management in Engineering, Construction Management and Economics, and International Journal of Project Management for the period of 2000-2010. International construction risk assessment models are also reviewed within the context of this study, since host country related risk factors were found to have serious effects on the profitability of international contractors due to literature review. As a result; political stability, law and regulations, exchange rate risk, cultural differences, inflation, expropriation, tax discrimination, language barrier, bribery and corruption, force majeure, and societal conflicts in the host country are found to be the most important risk factors in international construction. Findings of this study can be used in risk assessment models for international construction projects.

  10. The political polarization of physicians in the United States: an analysis of campaign contributions to federal elections, 1991 through 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonica, Adam; Rosenthal, Howard; Rothman, David J

    2014-08-01

    Few current data are available regarding the political behavior of American physicians as the number of female physicians has increased and the number of solo practitioners has decreased. To analyze campaign contributions that physicians made from the 1991 to 1992 through the 2011 to 2012 election cycles to Republican and Democratic candidates in presidential and congressional races and to partisan organizations, including party committees and super political action committees (Super PACs). We explored partisan differences in physician contributions by sex, for-profit vs nonprofit practice setting, and specialty using multiple regression analysis. We studied the relation between the variation in the mean annual income across specialties and the mean percentage of physicians within each specialty contributing to Republicans. Differences in contributions to Republicans and Democrats, for all physicians and for subgroups. Between the 1991 to 1992 and the 2011 to 2012 election cycles, physician campaign contributions increased from $20 million to $189 million, and the percentage of active physicians contributing increased from 2.6% to 9.4%. Of physicians who contributed during the study period, the mean percentage contributing to Republicans was 57% for men and 31% for women. Since 1996, the percentage of physicians contributing to Republicans has decreased, to less than 50% in the 2007 to 2008 election cycle and again in the 2011 to 2012 election cycle. Contributions to Republicans in 2011 to 2012 were more prevalent among men vs women (52.3% vs 23.6%), physicians practicing in for-profit vs nonprofit organizations (53.2% vs 25.6%), and surgeons vs pediatricians (70.2% vs 22.1%). In 1991 to 1992, these contribution gaps were smaller: for sex, 54.5% vs 30.9%; for organizations, 54.2% vs 40.0%; and for specialty, 65.5% vs 32.7%. The percentage of physicians contributing to Republicans across specialties correlated 0.84 with the mean log earnings of each specialty

  11. Data politics

    OpenAIRE

    Bigo, Didier; Isin, Engin; Ruppert, Evelyn

    2017-01-01

    The commentary raises political questions about the ways in which data has been constituted as an object vested withcertain powers, influence, and rationalities.We place the emergence and transformation of professional practices such as‘data science’, ‘data journalism’, ‘data brokerage’, ‘data mining’, ‘data storage’, and ‘data analysis’ as part of the reconfigurationof a series of fields of power and knowledge in the public and private accumulation of data. Data politics asksquestions about ...

  12. 'Grounded' Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Garbi

    2012-01-01

    A prominent strand within current migration research argues that, to understand the participation of immigrants in their host societies, we must focus on their incorporation into the cities in which they settle. This article narrows the perspective further by focusing on the role that immigrants...... play within one particular neighbourhood: Nørrebro in the Danish capital, Copenhagen. The article introduces the concept of grounded politics to analyse how groups of Muslim immigrants in Nørrebro use the space, relationships and history of the neighbourhood for identity political statements...

  13. ANALYSIS OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT FROM THE VIEWPOINT OF GENDER EQUALITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khatuna BERISHVILI

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Term “gender” means socially constructed roles of man and woman, which are ascribed to them according to gender marker. Thus, gender roles depend on concrete socio-economic, political and culturological context and experience influence of various factors according to race, ethnic origin, class, sexual orientation and age. Gender roles widely differ within each culture and cultures. Unlike the individual’s biological gender, the gender role can be changed. This concept implies the views, conditioned by culture, about the intellectual potentials of man and woman, their personal features and behavior. Gender, as a construct, is formed by the society, as a social model of man and woman, which determines their role and position in all the spheres of the public life. To measure gender, like other hard-to-measure events, is of importance, in order to compare the countries, to identify the problems and to try their correction. It may be said that it enables us to disclose focus of the problems and in case of existence of proper will to positively act on it. Gender is multi-component and hard to measure. Research of the gender equality problems is important for the global business. Gender is a cultural construct, within which our different cultures attach different values, roles and responsibilities to men and women. It should be mentioned that the problems of women’s rights along with other barriers impeding achievement of the gender equality, have long been significant for the leading countries of Europe and America. However, one problem still remains – barriers of the so-called “Glass Ceiling”, which impede carrier advance of the female representatives. At the same time, in the countries, being on the lower level, a woman is still considered to be a being of secondary importance, which has no right to work and, compared with a man, no equal conditions to be educated. To this are added the religious laws of Islamic countries, which

  14. The new railway tunnels of Frejus and Gothard: a political and institutional comparative analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerardo Marletto

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Projects of the two new railway transalpine tunnel of Frejus and Gothard have similar technical characteristics: an identical length (57 km, a similar cost (10 billion Euros and the existence of a highway along the same Alpine corridor. But, whilst the new Gothard is now under construction and should become operational in 2017, the new Frejus is at standstill at preliminary phases and has faced a very strong local opposition on the Italian side of the Alps. This difference can be explained by analysing the political and institutional framework of the two projects. The new Swiss tunnel is integrated into a national scheme of transport policy which is based on: the development of a new system of railway infrastructures, which features two new transalpine tunnels (the new Gothard and the Loetschberg;  the implementation of a distance-related heavy vehicle fee, which is levied on the basis of total weight, emission level and the kilometres driven; the provision of financial resources to stimulate the transfer of transalpine freight from road to railway. The approval of such a scheme started twenty years ago: it was based on a constitutional decree, implemented through several Federal acts and supported by three confirmatory referenda. The new French-Italian infrastructure is not integrated in any transport policy scheme. The new tunnel is only partially consistent with the overall goals of the European transport policy and the Transport Protocol of the Alpine Convention (which has not yet been ratified by the Italian Parliament: actually no action for modal shift is envisaged. Moreover, the new tunnel was initially supported by a structured consultative and participative procedure – based on the ‘débat public’ technique – only in France. In Italy this megaproject was not backed by an effective deliberation process, neither at the local nor the national level; on the contrary: it was considered among the strategic projects of the so

  15. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

  16. A Roadmap of Risk Diagnostic Methods: Developing an Integrated View of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura

    2004-01-01

    ...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...

  17. Chemical risk evaluation, importance of the risk analysis framework uses: Latin America development restrictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations

  18. Statistical models for competing risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sather, H.N.

    1976-08-01

    Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined

  19. UML-oriented Risk Analysis in Manufacturing Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Jirsa

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Whenever we want to avoid failures or hazardous events in today’s complex technological systems, it is advisable to carry out appropriate risk management. One of the most important aspects of risk management is the risk analysis process. The aim of this paper is to show a new risk analysis method based on the Unified Modelling Language (UML, which is successfully used in software engineering for describing the problem domain. The paper also includes a small practical example. It also shows a new risk analysis method based on an example of an unreeling process in cable manufacturing.

  20. Avoiding Conflict Relapse Through Inclusive Political Settlements ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Existing evidence shows that the failure to focus on political settlements can increase the risk of peace agreements failing, power-sharing arrangements being contested, and states relapsing into conflict. It is clear that political settlements matter, but we are only beginning to understand the shape of political settlements that ...

  1. Prospect theory and political decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vis, B.

    2011-01-01

    Risk is a central feature of political decision making. Prospect theory, an empirically correct theory of choice under risk that deals precisely with this condition, therefore seems to have much to offer political science. Prospect theory's central finding is that individuals' attitude toward risk

  2. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  3. Automating Risk Analysis of Software Design Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxime Frydman

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  4. Politics 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslow, Abraham

    1977-01-01

    This article expresses some last thoughts from Abraham Maslow on his vision of humanistic psychology. He suggests that the two main problems of creating the good person and the good society are interwoven inextricably. He gives some social and political mechanisms which would enhance desirable personal growth and considers the main tasks of…

  5. Political bugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, W. R.

    1972-01-01

    Certain decisions, problems, and successes are selected to recall the great impact of the 1950s on the history of rocketry, and particularly the inauguration of the space age. In reviewing the history of the Redstone, Juno, and Jupiter, some of the largest stepping stones to space, problems stand out in three areas: technical or engineering, management, and political.

  6. Political polarization

    OpenAIRE

    Dixit, Avinash K.; Weibull, Jörgen W.

    2007-01-01

    Failures of government policies often provoke opposite reactions from citizens; some call for a reversal of the policy, whereas others favor its continuation in stronger form. We offer an explanation of such polarization, based on a natural bimodality of preferences in political and economic contexts and consistent with Bayesian rationality.

  7. Political polarization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixit, Avinash K; Weibull, Jörgen W

    2007-05-01

    Failures of government policies often provoke opposite reactions from citizens; some call for a reversal of the policy, whereas others favor its continuation in stronger form. We offer an explanation of such polarization, based on a natural bimodality of preferences in political and economic contexts and consistent with Bayesian rationality.

  8. Framing politics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lecheler, S.K.

    2010-01-01

    This dissertation supplies a number of research findings that add to a theory of news framing effects, and also to the understanding of the role media effects play in political communication. We show that researchers must think more about what actually constitutes a framing effect, and that a

  9. Political Rationality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solhaug, Trond; Kristensen, Niels Nørgaard

    The very idea about democracies is public participation in elections, decision-making and/or public engagement. The democratic participation distributes power among ordinary people and serve to legitimize decisions in public affairs and is a vital characteristic of a political culture.”The term ’...

  10. Why Do Policy Leaders Adopt Global Education Reforms? A Political Analysis of SBM Reform Adoption in Post-Conflict Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komatsu, Taro

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a political analysis of school-based management reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). School-based management (SBM), based on the principle of school autonomy and community participation, is a school governance system introduced in many parts of the world, including post-conflict nations. Such a phenomenon seems to follow the…

  11. Review: Joseph Patrick Ganahl, Corruption, Good Governance, and the African State: A Critical Analysis of the Political-Economic Foundations of Corruption in Sub-Saharan Africa (2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reinhart Kößler

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Review of the monograph:Joseph Patrick Ganahl, Corruption, Good Governance, and the African State: A Critical Analysis of the Political-Economic Foundations of Corruption in Sub-Saharan Africa, Potsdam: Potsdam University Press, 2013, ISBN 9783869562483, 300 pp.

  12. Similar or Different?: A Comparative Analysis of Higher Education Research in Political Science and International Relations between the United States of America and the United Kingdom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Alasdair

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on the nature of the writing in 73 articles published in six U.S. and U.K. political science and international relations journals that focus on teaching and learning. A comparative analysis is made of the articles through a review of the characteristics of the authors, the themes researched, the analytical focus, the research…

  13. Towards a Response-able Pedagogy across Higher Education Institutions in Post-Apartheid South Africa: An Ethico-Political Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozalek, Vivienne; Zembylas, Michalinos

    2017-01-01

    Internationally there has been some interest in how critical pedagogies might be enabled in higher education to support transformative social agendas. Few writers, however, have theorised the ethico-political aspects of this effort from a feminist new materialist perspective. By focusing on the analysis of an inter-institutional collaborative…

  14. Information Communication Technology and Politics: A Synthesized Analysis of the Impacts of Information Technology on Voter Participation in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuma, Clive Katiba

    2011-01-01

    The availability of political information throughout society made possible by the evolution of contemporary information communication technology has precipitated conflicting debate regarding the effects of technology use on real life political participation. Proponents of technology argue that the use of new information technology stimulates…

  15. Qualitative Analysis by Theorizing: Socio-political Research on Mining and Metallurgical Enclaves in the Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josep Pont Vidal

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to provide a methodological reflection based on the proposal of a "qualitative analysis by theory" (MUCHIELLI, 2001, This proposal provides a model methodology to capture and understand data gathered from an investigation focusing on industrial action and the possibilities of changing the workforce in a mining enclave in the state of Pará (West Amazon. To gather the necessary data, a two level map was compiled which allowed an approximation to the phenomenon from a discourse analysis of the workers and their experiences. The first level, "located activity," locates the context from the interpretation of trade unions and their members. The second level, "subjectivization of the activity," frames the analysis of the workers' subjective practices. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0901146

  16. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  17. A "Nation-ized" Intersectional Analysis: The Politics of Transnational Campus Unity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okazawa-Rey, Margo

    2017-01-01

    The author introduces the concept of "nation" as an analytic category in contemporary diversity discourse and intersectional analysis of social relations in U.S. higher educational institutions. She then suggests how an intersectional lens that includes nation can expand possibilities for understanding the experiences of international…

  18. News framing and public opinion: A mediation analysis of framing effects on political attitudes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lecheler, S.K.; de Vreese, C.H.

    2012-01-01

    There is no satisfactory account of the psychological processes that mediate a news framing effect. Based on an experimental study (N = 1,537), this article presents a mediation analysis of a news framing effect on opinion, testing for two important mediation processes: belief importance and belief

  19. Commemoration in crisis: A discursive analysis of who 'we' and 'they' have been or become in ceremonial political speeches before and during the Greek financial downturn.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gkinopoulos, Theofilos; Hegarty, Peter

    2018-02-17

    This study analyses the discourse of statements of the leaders of two Greek political parties commemorating the restoration of Greek democracy on 24 July 1974; the ruling party New Democracy and the opposition, Coalition of the Radical Left. We focus on how these leaders act as entrepreneurs of their identities by constructing their ingroups in broad or narrow terms and their outgroups in vague or specific terms. These constructions were ventured during a period of relative political stability (2008) and instability (2012), and we focus on how ingroup prototypes and group boundaries are narrated across Greece's past, present and future in ambiguous or concrete terms. The study aligns the social identity approach to political leadership with studies on political discourse and 'the rhetoric of we'. We view commemorative statements as historical charters and respond to calls for discourse analysis to take greater account of historical context. The findings suggest concrete hypotheses about how leaders with different amounts of political support might define, as identity entrepreneurs, who 'we' are, and who 'we' are not in democratic contexts marked by stability or crisis. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

  20. The Pragmatics of Political Apology in Ghana's Contemporary Politics

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper discusses the semantics and pragmatics of political apology. It examines the use of the language of apology, paying attention to expressives, commissives and persuasion, by drawing on the speech act of apology and political discourse analysis (PDA). It concludes that the obligation on the part of the offender to ...

  1. The Politics of Political Correctness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minsky, Leonard

    1992-01-01

    This article reacts to President Bush's entry into the dispute over "political correctness" on college campuses. The paper summarizes discussions of students, faculty, and others in the Washington, D.C. area which concluded that this seeming defense of free speech is actually an attack on affirmative action and multiculturalism stemming…

  2. Risk analysis in transport and logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ene Andreea Bianca

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization and production concentration have led to more efficient supply chain networks, which has led to the emergence of different types of risks. Although most companies have implemented special risk management programs, there may be events that can not be controlled by businesses, and unwanted consequences are not delayed.

  3. Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Muns (Sander)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence

  4. Analysis and management of risks experienced in tunnel construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cagatay Pamukcu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, first of all, the definitions of "risk", "risk analysis", "risk assessment" and "risk management" were made to avoid any confusions about these terms and significance of risk analysis and management in engineering projects was emphasized. Then, both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques were mentioned and within the scope of the study, Event Tree Analysis method was selected in order to analyze the risks regarding TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine operations in tunnel construction. After all hazards that would be encountered during tunnel construction by TBM method had been investigated, those hazards were undergoing a Preliminary Hazard Analysis to sort out and prioritize the risks with high scores. When the risk scores were taken into consideration, it was seen that the hazards with high risk scores could be classified into 4 groups which are excavation + support induced accidents, accidents stemming from geologic conditions, auxiliary works, and project contract. According to these four classified groups of initiating events, Event Tree Analysis was conducted by taking into care 4 countermeasures apart from each other. Finally, the quantitative and qualitative consequences of Event Tree Analyses, which were undertaken for all initiating events, were investigated and interpreted together by making comparisons and referring to previous studies.

  5. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  6. A Big Social Media Data Study of the 2017 German Federal Election Based on Social Set Analysis of Political Party Facebook Pages with SoSeVi

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flesch, Benjamin; Vatrapu, Ravi; Mukkamala, Raghava Rao

    2017-01-01

    We present a big social media data study that comprises of 1 million individuals who interact with Facebook pages of the seven major political parties CDU, CSU, SPD, FDP, Greens, Die Linke and AfD during the 2017 German federal election. Our study uses the Social Set Analysis (SSA) approach, which....... We explore a significant gender-based difference between female and male interactions with political party Facebook pages. Furthermore, we perform a multi-faceted analysis of social media interactions using gender detection, user segmentation and retention analysis, and visualize our findings....... In conclusion, we discuss the analytical approach of social set analysis and conclude with a discussion of the benefits of set theoretical approaches based on the social philosophical approach of associational sociology....

  7. Gendered Politics

    OpenAIRE

    Luconi, Stefano

    2016-01-01

    Political incorporation resulting from voter participation is often a relevant feature of the migration experience. When the legislation of the receiving nations enables the newcomers to get naturalized and grants citizenship to their children born in the adoptive country by means of the jus soli, as is the case of the United States, casting ballots in the elections of the land of their destination usually becomes part of the first and second-generation immigrants’ accommodation into the host...

  8. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Implementation of a participatory management model: analysis from a political perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernardes, Andrea; G Cummings, Greta; Gabriel, Carmen Silvia; Martinez Évora, Yolanda Dora; Gomes Maziero, Vanessa; Coleman-Miller, Glenda

    2015-10-01

    To analyse experiences of managers and nursing staff in the implementation of participatory management, specifically processes of decision-making, communication and power in a Canadian hospital. Implementing a Participatory Management Model involves change because it is focused on the needs of patients and encourages decentralisation of power and shared decisions. The study design is qualitative using observational sessions and content analysis for data analysis. We used Bolman and Deal's four-frame theoretical framework to interpret our findings. Participatory management led to advances in care, because it allowed for more dialogue and shared decision making. However, the biggest challenge has been that all major changes are still being decided centrally by the provincial executive board. Managers and directors are facing difficulties related to this change process, such as the resistance to change by some employees and limited input to decision-making affecting their areas of responsibility; however, they and their teams are working to utilise the values and principles underlying participatory management in their daily work practices. Innovative management models encourage accountability, increased motivation and satisfaction of nursing staff, and improve the quality of care. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Methodology for risk analysis of nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Senne Junior, Murillo; Jordao, Elizabete

    2002-01-01

    Both the licensing standards for general uses in nuclear facilities and the specific ones require a risk assessment during their licensing processes. The risk assessment is carried out through the estimation of both probability of the occurrence of the accident, and their magnitudes. This is a complex task because the great deal of potential hazardous events that can occur in nuclear facilities difficult the statement of the accident scenarios. There are also many available techniques to identify the potential accidents, estimate their probabilities, and evaluate their magnitudes. In this paper is presented a new methodology that systematizes the risk assessment process, and orders the accomplishment of their several steps. (author)

  11. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Science Based Governance? EU Food Regulation Submitted to Risk Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Szajkowska, A.; Meulen, van der B.M.J.

    2014-01-01

    Anna Szajkowska and Bernd van der Meulen analyse in their contribution, Science Based Governance? EU Food Regulation Submitted to Risk Analysis, the scope of application of risk analysis and the precautionary principle in EU food safety regulation. To what extent does this technocratic,

  13. Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L.; Olsthoorn, A.A.

    1995-01-01

    An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs

  14. Politics at the interface

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kannabiran, Gobinaath; Petersen, Marianne Graves

    2010-01-01

    At the birth of participatory design, there was a strong political consciousness surrounding the design of new technology, the design process in particular, establishing a rich set of methods and tools for user-centered design. Today, the term design has extended its scope of concern beyond...... the process of design and into how users interact with the designed product on a day-to-day basis. This paper is an attempt to call to attention the need for a new set of methods, attitudes and approaches, along with the existing, to discuss, analyze and reflect upon the politics at the interface....... By presenting a critical analysis of two design cases, we elicit the importance of such an agenda and the implications for design in doing so. We use the Foucauldian notion of power to analyze the power relationships in these two cases and to articulate the politics at the interface. We conclude by emphasizing...

  15. Living PRAs [probabilistic risk analysis] made easier with IRRAS [Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1989-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is an integrated PRA software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using an IBM-compatible microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree and event tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. IRRAS contains all the capabilities and functions required to create, modify, reduce, and analyze event tree and fault tree models used in the analysis of complex systems and processes. IRRAS uses advanced graphic and analytical techniques to achieve the greatest possible realization of the potential of the microcomputer. When the needs of the user exceed this potential, IRRAS can call upon the power of the mainframe computer. The role of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory if the IRRAS program is that of software developer and interface to the user community. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February 1987 to prove the concept of performing this kind of analysis on microcomputers. This version contained many of the basic features needed for fault tree analysis and was received very well by the PRA community. Since the release of Version 1.0, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version is designated ''IRRAS 2.0''. Version 3.0 will contain all of the features required for efficient event tree and fault tree construction and analysis. 5 refs., 26 figs

  16. Operational Risk Management A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kenett, Ron

    2010-01-01

    The book will introduce modern Operational Risk (OpR) Management and illustrates the various sources of OpR assessment and OpR mitigation. This book discusses how various data sources can be integrated and analyzed and how OpR is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Internationalization. The topics will include state of the art technology such as semantic analysis, ontology engineering, data mining and statistical analysis.

  17. Common Methods for Security Risk Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Malboeuf, Sylvie; Sandberg-Maitland, William; Dziadyk, William; Bacic, Eugen

    2005-01-01

    .... The study provides a history of Canada's initiatives with respect to risk management and investigates how Canada can augment the Working Group with its experiences and its future initiatives and opportunities...

  18. Track inspection planning and risk measurement analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-01

    This project models track inspection operations on a railroad network and discusses how the inspection results can : be used to measure the risk of failure on the tracks. In particular, the inspection times of the tracks, inspection frequency of the ...

  19. The Operational Risk – Comparative Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Victoria Anghelache

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available In many cases operational risks tend to be underestimated, considering that the losses they cause are generally minor can’t threatening the survival of a bank. Losses resulting from these events come from a complex interaction between organizational factors, personal and market that do not fit into a simple classification scheme. Observing what happened in the past we can say that operational risk is an important question of the financial losses in the banking sector.

  20. A comparative analysis of risk and quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynette, Jennifer Elyse

    2017-01-01

    independently, decision making and judgement processes have the potential to be positively impacted by furthering research and developing a deeper understanding of these constructs. By understanding risk management principles and combining that with a quality systems approach, decision making can be improved....... This understanding can serve to facilitate more informed and effective decision making that incorporates both risk and quality before, during, and after emergency events....