WorldWideScience

Sample records for political risk analysis

  1. Political Culture and Risk Analysis: An Outline of Somalia, Tunisia, and Libya

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-21

    unrest, outside stakeholders will always have concerns regarding any signs of institu- tional, economic, political , and social instability . From...predictability, stability , continuity, and security, 40 Political Culture and Risk Analysis MCU Journal serving as a filter for all subsequent (collective...armed conflict and its accompanying instability has remained. 46 Political Culture and Risk Analysis MCU Journal The 30 years preceding 1991 was

  2. Capital flight and political risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lensink, R; Hermes, N; Murinde, [No Value

    This paper provides the first serious attempt to examine the relationship between political risk and capital flight for a large set of developing countries. The outcomes of the analysis show that in most cases political risk variables do have a statistically robust relationship to capital flight

  3. Risk, responsibility and political action

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halskov Jensen, Elisabeth

    2004-01-01

    action was transformed into a moral respon-sibility on the part of the national and European politicians, constrained by economic and technical-scientific reality and represented as taking place only in the public sphere. KEY WORDS: CDA, World Risk Society, argumentation, media discourse, argumentation......ABSTRACT. This paper presents an argumentative case study of the discursive representation of risk, responsibility and political action in the Spanish media. The study uses a critical discourse analytical approach combined with theories on risk, agency and political communication in the media....... It is argued that an application of the Toulmin model is useful for eliciting systematic overall repre-sentations of responsibility and agency in environmental crises such as the mad cow crisis as well as for revealing relationships between social domains such as moral, politics, economics and science...

  4. Political analysis using R

    CERN Document Server

    Monogan III, James E

    2015-01-01

    Political Analysis Using R can serve as a textbook for undergraduate or graduate students as well as a manual for independent researchers. It is unique among competitor books in its usage of 21 example datasets that are all drawn from political research. All of the data and example code is available from the Springer website, as well as from Dataverse (http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ARKOTI). The book provides a narrative of how R can be useful for addressing problems common to the analysis of public administration, public policy, and political science data specifically, in addition to the social sciences more broadly. While the book uses data drawn from political science, public administration, and policy analyses, it is written so that students and researchers in other fields should find it accessible and useful as well. Political Analysis Using R is perfect for the first-time R user who has no prior knowledge about the program. By working through the first seven chapters of this book, an entry-level user sho...

  5. A new energy paradigm for Turkey: A political risk-inclusive cost analysis for sustainable energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oksay, Serhan; Iseri, Emre

    2011-01-01

    Implementing sustainable development policies in order to achieve economic and social development while maintaining adequate environmental protection to minimize the damage inflicted by the constantly increasing world population must be a major priority in the 21st century. While the emerging global debate on potential cost-effective responses has produced potential solutions such as cap and trade systems and/or carbon taxes as part of evolving sustainable energy/environmental policies, this kind of intellectual inquiry does not seem to be an issue among Turkish policy-making elites. This is mainly due to their miscalculation that pursuing sustainable energy policies is much more expensive in comparison to the utilization of fossil fuels such as natural gas. Nevertheless, the pegged prices of an energy sector dominated by natural gas are illusive, as both the political risks and environmental damage have not been incorporated into the current cost calculations. This paper evaluates energy policies through a lens of risk management and takes an alternative approach to calculating energy costs by factoring in political risks. This formulation reveals that the cost of traditional fossil-based energy is in fact more expensive than renewable energy. In addition to being environmentally friendly, the paradigm shift towards renewable energy policies would provide Turkey with a significant opportunity to stimulate its economy by being one of the first countries to develop green technologies and as a result this burgeoning sector would prompt job creation as well; mainly due to the externalities. - Research highlights: → This paper evaluates Turkish energy policies through risk management scope and takes an alternative approach on calculating electricity costs by factoring in political risks. → The cost of traditional fossil-based energy turns out to be more expensive than renewable energy. → The paradigm shift towards renewable energy policies could provide Turkey

  6. A new energy paradigm for Turkey: A political risk-inclusive cost analysis for sustainable energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oksay, Serhan, E-mail: serhano@khas.edu.t [Kadir Has University, Department of Business Administration (Turkey); Iseri, Emre, E-mail: eiseri@khas.edu.t [Kadir Has University, Department of International Relations, Cibali Campus, Kadir Has Caddesi 34083, Istanbul (Turkey)

    2011-05-15

    Implementing sustainable development policies in order to achieve economic and social development while maintaining adequate environmental protection to minimize the damage inflicted by the constantly increasing world population must be a major priority in the 21st century. While the emerging global debate on potential cost-effective responses has produced potential solutions such as cap and trade systems and/or carbon taxes as part of evolving sustainable energy/environmental policies, this kind of intellectual inquiry does not seem to be an issue among Turkish policy-making elites. This is mainly due to their miscalculation that pursuing sustainable energy policies is much more expensive in comparison to the utilization of fossil fuels such as natural gas. Nevertheless, the pegged prices of an energy sector dominated by natural gas are illusive, as both the political risks and environmental damage have not been incorporated into the current cost calculations. This paper evaluates energy policies through a lens of risk management and takes an alternative approach to calculating energy costs by factoring in political risks. This formulation reveals that the cost of traditional fossil-based energy is in fact more expensive than renewable energy. In addition to being environmentally friendly, the paradigm shift towards renewable energy policies would provide Turkey with a significant opportunity to stimulate its economy by being one of the first countries to develop green technologies and as a result this burgeoning sector would prompt job creation as well; mainly due to the externalities. - Research highlights: {yields} This paper evaluates Turkish energy policies through risk management scope and takes an alternative approach on calculating electricity costs by factoring in political risks. {yields} The cost of traditional fossil-based energy turns out to be more expensive than renewable energy. {yields} The paradigm shift towards renewable energy policies could

  7. Socio-political implications of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hipel, K.W.; Fraser, N.W.

    1982-01-01

    A conflict analysis technique is presented which allows risk to be considered when ascertaining the politically and socially feasible solutions to a given large scale engineering project. In particular, the improved metagame analysis algorithm can be employed to model a given conflict or game which may be concerned with risk and to predict the possible compromise solutions. Risk can be entertained in the analysis since it may affect the preference structure of a specific participant for the possible feasible outcomes in the dispute. To demonstrate how the methodology works in practice, it is applied to the Garrison Diversion Unit conflict which is a serious environmental dispute involving American and Canadian interests

  8. Competitive effects and instruments of power sector reforms. International reform concepts blockade structures, risk distribution. A political economy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liebchen, Armin

    2014-01-01

    Power sectors with weak or inadequate competition structures are the rule, despite numerous attempts at reform. But can afford modern economies this defect for a long time? Why can the implementation of competition are blocked so effectively? The author studied international reform experiences and opens up interesting insights that can also reflect on problems of the German energy turnaround: The difficulty of timing and coordination of the reform components, the development of resistance levels of individual interest groups, breach of contract as a rational alternative, causes unwanted price effects, shifting interest situations of major stakeholders, change dynamics impending regulatory risks, pending financing risks, stranded cost-conflict situations for power stations disconnected from the grid and facilities and instruments of a political and regulatory risk management for reforms. With numerous examples, background analyzes and instruments to reform analysis, this book is aimed at investors, policy planners and analysts. [de

  9. The Political Economy of Intergenerational Risk Sharing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hollanders, D.A.

    2010-01-01

    This paper analyses the political constraints of intergenerational risk sharing. The rst result is that the political process generally does not lead to ex ante optimal insurance. The second result is that in a second best political setting PAYG still contributes to intergenerational risk sharing.

  10. Privatization, political risk and stock market development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.C.; van Oijen, P.H.

    1999-01-01

    This paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test which gradually resolves uncertainty

  11. The Political Economy of Regulatory Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Strausz, Roland

    2009-01-01

    I investigate the argument that, in a two–party system with different regulatory objectives, political uncertainty generates regulatory risk. I show that this risk has a fluctuation effect that hurts both parties and an output–expansion effect that benefits one party. Consequently, at least one party dislikes regulatory risk. Moreover, both political parties gain from eliminating regulatory risk when political divergence is small or the winning probability of the regulatory–risk–averse party ...

  12. Shadows on Israeli Gas Success Story: a Political and Geopolitical Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boncourt, Maite de

    2015-12-01

    In Israel, both the regional geopolitical context and domestic politics play an important role in the development of the offshore gas fields. The country has been a forerunner in the discovery of the Eastern Mediterranean basin, thanks to the dedication of the private sector and the support of the State. Today, the entire region is under the spotlights for its energy potential, but the development of the gas resources in Israel still has to deal with internal challenges, related notably to the governance of the sector and the stabilization of the legislative framework to attract investments. (author)

  13. Political uncertainty and firm risk in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danglun Luo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The political uncertainty surrounded by the turnover of government officials has a major impact on local economies and local firms. This paper investigates the relationship between the turnover of prefecture-city officials and the inherent risk faced by local firms in China. Using data from 1999 to 2012, we find that prefecture-city official turnovers significantly increased firm risk. Our results show that the political risk was mitigated when new prefecture-city officials were well connected with their provincial leaders. In addition, the impact of political uncertainty was more pronounced for regulated firms and firms residing in provinces with low market openness.

  14. Gender, risk assessment, and political ambition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet-Cushman, Jennie

    2016-01-01

    In the United States, women have long held the right to vote and can participate fully in the political process, and yet they are underrepresented at all levels of elected office. Worldwide, men's dominance in the realm of politics has also been the norm. To date, scholars have focused on supply-side and demand-side explanations of women's underrepresentation but differences in how men and women assess electoral risk (the risk involved in seeking political office) are not fully explained. To fill this gap, I explore how evolutionary theory offers insights into gendered differences in political ambition and the evaluation of electoral risk. Using the framework of life-history theory, I hypothesize that both cognitive and environmental factors in human evolution, particularly as they relate to sexual selection and social roles, have shaped the psychology of ambition in gendered ways affecting contemporary politics. Cognitive risk-assessment mechanisms evolving in the hominid line came to be expressed differently in females and males, in women and men. These gendered expressions plausibly reflect differentiable environmental pressures in the past and may help explain behaviors in and barriers to women's electoral political activity in the present. If so, then the success of efforts to increase such activity - or, regressively, to suppress it - may be better understood.

  15. Political side of risk: a new approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sorenson, J.B.; Trauth, C.A. Jr.

    1980-01-01

    The resolution of many of the Nation's most-serious problems today is hampered by our apparent inability to systematically deal with the socio-political dimensions of the societal acceptance of risks in areas of technical development, decision making, and policy formulation. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the energy field. The nature of public hazards has changed drastically during the past half century or so, driving public considerations of risk into the political realm. This has given many of the socio-political parameters underlying individual, group, and institutional perception and acceptance of risk an importance not typically recognized in technical approaches to risk assessment. As a result, there is now a large gap between technically based views of risk and societal views of risk which, the authors feel, is largely responsible for impeding the resolution of the national problems alluded to above. This paper proposes a general approach toward closing this gap, by using indicators from the political system to measure public perceptions and acceptance of risk, as a continuing function of time, to provide the technical community and policy and decision makers a basis from which to more effectively meet societal environmental, safety, and health goals. 15 references, 6 figures.

  16. The place of Political Risk Insurance in the political risk management strategy of multinational corporations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Violeta Iftinchi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Confronted with a variety of political risks that affect their international activities, multinational corporations (MNCs can use Political Risk Insurance (PRI as a method to mitigate some of those risks. The aim of this article is to present the main characteristics of the PRI policies and participants, to highlight its benefits and to put forward three limitations that prevent MNCs in using PRI in their political risk management strategy (fluctuating capacity on the market, high premium rates and small compensation value. The recent trend in incorporating corporate social responsibility requirements as a pre-condition for providing PRI can contribute to lowering PRI premium rates.

  17. Politically Induced Regulatory Risk and Independent Regulatory Agencies

    OpenAIRE

    Strausz, Roland

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty in election outcomes generates politically induced regulatory risk. Political parties' risk attitudes towards such risk depend on a fluctuation effect that hurts both parties and an output--expansion effect that benefits at least one party. Notwithstanding the parties' risk attitudes, political parties have incentives to negotiate away all regulatory risk by pre-electoral bargaining. Efficient pre-electoral bargaining outcomes fully eliminate politically induced regulatory risk. P...

  18. The politics of urban climate risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2018-01-01

    makes valuable contributions, this article suggests that all of them remain under-theorized from the point of view of the specific dynamics of local–global interdependencies in urban climate risk politics. In response, the article draws on Beck in outlining the contours of new urban–cosmopolitan risk...... communities. To this effect, empirical studies into large-scale East Asian and European port cities is used to illustrate how a shared transnational risk imaginary (e.g. of future sea-level rises) may help spur collective action and new forms of trans-boundary solidarity. Reflecting on such research practices...

  19. Risk Factors as the Reasons of Political Instability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Георгий Ильич Марушко

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available This article refers to the analysis of political instability and instability risk factors, and the mechanism of direct circuits and feedback between them. The best understanding of each of these factors conducts to comprehension of dynamics of change of stability of the state to external and internal sources of stabilization and destabilization.

  20. Insure Against Commercial and Political Risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fergusson, Fergus

    2003-01-01

    The oil and gas sector is enormously diverse, ranging from the giant exploration, production and supply companies to the manufacturers, suppliers and service providers that support an industry of crucial importance to the global community. For understandable reasons, risk management in the oil and gas sector has tended to concentrate on health and safety and environmental issues. Consideration must be made for the risks of engaging in domestic and international trade. The concept of risk and the consequential discipline of risk management underpin and support many of the fundamental activities that maintain successful trade flows. Risk management revolves around the organised procedures of mitigating the foreseen and unforeseen consequences of danger, injury and loss that can have adverse and potentially catastrophic effects on the environment, human lives, economies, political stability and business performance

  1. Political risk in fair market value estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gruy, H.J.; Hartsock, J.H.

    1996-01-01

    Political risk arises from unstable governments, commercial establishments and infrastructure as well as labor unrest. All these factors vary from country to country and from time to time. Banks and insurance companies quantify these risks, but they are reluctant to divulge their opinions for fear of alienating possible customers that have been assigned a high risk. An investment in a fixed property such as an oil and gas lease, concession or other mineral interest is subject to political risk. No one will deny that money to be received several years in the future has a greater value today in a country with a stable government, stable tax regime, a sound economy and reliable labor force than in a Third World country where a revolution is brewing. Even in stable countries, the risk of tax law changes, exorbitant environmental production regulations and cleanup costs may vary. How do these factors affect fair market value and how are these calculations made? An important consideration discussed in this paper is the treatment of capital investments

  2. THE FINANCIAL TOOLS FOR COVER POLITICAL RISKS IN PROJECT FINANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Naumenkova

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the risk-mitigation in public-private partnership. Today Ukraine is ranked as "CRT-5 country" and has high levels of economic and political risk. Political risk grows steadily because of financial and political instability in Ukraine. We conclude that investors continue to rank political risk as a key obstacle to long-term investing. The tools for cover many types of political risks such as war, terrorism, civil disturbance, breach of contract, export or operating license cancellation, currency inconvertibility and transfer restriction, change of laws and regulations etc. are described by authors. We focus on the advantages of World Bank Group Guarantee products. The guarantee instruments of the three WBG institutions for cover political risks under different circumstances are the most suitable for public-private partnership in Ukraine. In this article the political risk-mitigation with IBRD Partial Risk Guarantee put forward by authors for PPP projects in Ukraine.

  3. Food, Risk and Politics: Scare, scandal and crisis - insights into the risk politics of food safety

    OpenAIRE

    Randall, Ed J.

    2009-01-01

    This book is about the risk politics of food safety. Food-related risks regularly grab the headlines in ways that threaten reasoned debate and obstruct sensible policy making. The author explains why this is the case. He goes on to make the case for a properly informed and fully open public debate about food safety issues. He argues that this is the true antidote to the politics of scare, scandal and crisis.\\ud \\ud The book skilfully weaves together the many different threads of food safety a...

  4. Countering Political Risk in Colonial India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lubinski, Christina; Giacomin, Valeria; Schnitzer, Klara

    challenges, impacted the perception of racial lines of distinctions and re-casted the category “European business.” While internment was perceived and managed as a political risk, the case also shows that it created unexpected networking opportunities, generating a tight community of German businesspeople......Internment in so-called “enemy countries” was a frequent occurrence in the twentieth century and created significant obstacles for multinational enterprises (MNEs). This article focuses on German MNEs in India and shows how they addressed the formidable challenge of the internment...

  5. Privatization, political risk and stock market development in emerging economies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.C.; van Oijen, P.H.

    1999-01-01

    This paper investigates whether privatisation in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatisation programme represents a major political test which gradually resolves uncertainty

  6. Element of risk: The politics of radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cole, L.A.

    1994-01-01

    The recent history of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) approach to managing the risk of indoor radon offers a rich base from which to consider US practice in risk assessment, management, and communication. The biological evidence of risks from high-level exposure to radon is in many ways stronger--and the gap to be spanned by extrapolation from laboratory animal studies to ambient exposures narrower--than for many of the toxic and hazardous air pollutants that have been the focus of EPA regulatory attention. The epidemiological evidence about radon is complicated by a number of confounding variables, but this is often the state of epidemiological evidence. Radon has also been the focus of a considerable amount of research on risk communication. To complete the promising ingredients, disagreements between federal regulators at EPA and managers of federal nuclear programs run by the Department of Energy (DOE) concerning radon from uranium mill tailings, for example, and other issues in radiation health physics offer a rich array of opportunities to explore issues in federal bureaucratic politics. This book provides a straightforward report of much of the development of US policy on indoor radon over the past decade. As such, it gives readers unfamiliar with the evolution of radon regulation an opportunity to come quickly up to speed on many historical details

  7. Refuse and the 'Risk Society': The Political Ecology of Risk in Inter-war Britain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Timothy; Bulmer, Sarah

    2013-05-01

    This article responds to current critiques of Ulrich Beck's 'risk society' thesis by historians of science and medicine. Those who have engaged with the concept of risk society have been content to accept the fundamental categories of Beck's analysis. In contrast, we argue that Beck's risk society thesis underplays two key themes. First, the role of capitalist social relations as the driver of technological change and the transformation of everyday life; and second, the ways in which hegemonic discourses of risk can be appropriated and transformed by counter-hegemonic forces. In place of 'risk society', we propose an approach based upon a 'political ecology of risk', which emphasises the social relations that are fundamental to the everyday politics of environmental health.

  8. From Text to Political Positions: Text analysis across disciplines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaal, A.R.; Maks, I.; van Elfrinkhof, A.M.E.

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT From Text to Political Positions addresses cross-disciplinary innovation in political text analysis for party positioning. Drawing on political science, computational methods and discourse analysis, it presents a diverse collection of analytical models including pure quantitative and

  9. Political Risk and Foreign Direct Investments in Kosovo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MSc. Neshat Podvorica

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to present the importance of political risk and its impact on attracting investments, also to analyse policies made by the Kosovo institutions to reduce political risk and increase the FDIs. Attracting of the FDIs is complex because they depend on many factors, and one of the methods that measure political risk is the model used by the PRS Group that includes the flow of the economy through 12 components. Measuring political risk plays an important role in transitional countries, because these are countries that have problems in various fields and also the trust on by the investors is low. As a finding of this study is that Kosovo is estimated to have moderate political risk, and is close to joining the group of countries with low political risk. Challenges faced by Kosovo in reducing political risk are concentrated in several components, which are: socioeconomic, corruption and rule of law components. Kosovo has taken significant steps in improving the conditions for investment, government stability and positioning of the country facing internal and external conflicts.

  10. Privatization, political risk and stock market development in emerging economies

    OpenAIRE

    Perotti, E.C.; van Oijen, P.H.

    1999-01-01

    This paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test that gradually resolves uncertainty over political commitment to a market-oriented policy as well as to regulatory and private property rights. We present evidence suggesting that progress in privatization is indeed correlated with impro...

  11. Privatization, political risk and stock market development in emerging economies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.C.; van Oijen, P. H.

    2001-01-01

    This paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test that gradually resolves uncertainty over

  12. Privatization, political risk and stock market development in emerging economies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.C.; van Oijen, P.H.

    1999-01-01

    This paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test that gradually resolves uncertainty over

  13. Political risk and export promotion: evidence from Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Moser, Christoph; Nestmann, Thorsten; Wedow, Michael

    2006-01-01

    Political risk represents an important hidden transaction cost that reduces international trade. This paper investigates the claim that German public export credit guarantees (Hermes guarantees) mitigate this friction to trade flows and hence promote exports. We employ an empirical trade gravity model, where we explicitly control for political risk in the importing country in order to evaluate the effect of export guarantees. The idea behind export promotion through public export credit agenc...

  14. How politicians make decisions under risk: a political choice experiment

    OpenAIRE

    Enrique Fatás; Tibor Neugebauer; Pilar Tamborero

    2004-01-01

    We report on an experimental study with real-world politicians. These political experts face political choice problems under risk and probability. Thus, we test the frequently observed violations of rational choice theory -the reference point effect, loss aversion, framing effects, and the common ratio effect- with experts from the field. Their choices violate expected utility theory. Nevertheless, they appear to be more rational and less risk averse (loving) in the domain of gains (losses) t...

  15. Political instability and country risk : new evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    DeHaan, J; Siermann, CLJ; VanLubek, E

    1997-01-01

    This note presents new estimates of a probit model for the debt rescheduling, using a sample of 65 countries over the period 1984-93. Apart from economic variables, a whole range of indicators for political instability are included in the model as explanatory variables. It turns out, that none is

  16. Analysis of politics about greenhouse effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chetouani, L.; Tournier, M.

    1992-01-01

    This report deals with the greenhouse effect which brings about increasing temperatures. It is based upon documents such as interviews, conferences, political speeches, newspaper articles and so on. After the problem of the greenhouse effect has been exposed, a lexicometric study is carried out. The analysis of all the texts that have been studied finally leads to semiologic interpretations. (TEC). 2 tabs

  17. Is political risk still an issue for Turkish stock market?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samet Günay

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we analyze the effects of internal political risk on the Turkish stock market in the period of 2001–2014. Empirical analyses are conducted through various methods to obtain breaks and regimes in the return volatilities of the BIST100 index. According to the results, while the number of breaks has increased in recent years, the risk level of recent periods is significantly lower than the early regimes, and the risk level trend for all regimes show a negative slope. In conclusion, the Turkish stock market responds to political events, but according to our results, not as significantly as in the past.

  18. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

  19. Safety Politics and Risk Perceptions in Malaysian Industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wangel, Arne

    Abstract The book deals with the analysis of work hazards and safety in industrial enterprises in Peninsular Malaysia, Southeast Asia. It traces the development of this theme of conflict within the context constituted by state, labour market and labour-management relations in Malaysia. The book...... and safety, when compared with the influence of local conditions? What kind of process develops, as local theory about work hazards are formed among workers. And, which are the opportunities for changing working environment institutions in Malaysia? The first part of the book discusses traditions...... by the state from Burawoy, Beronius, and Adesina about production politics and social relations in the labour process provides an integrated perspective on individual risk perceptions, safety practices in enterprises, and government regulation. The empirical data were collected during the period 1989...

  20. EXPERTISE OF POLITICAL ANALYSIS IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. D. Bogaturov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to a problem of political analysis in the fi eld of international relations. The author discusses the key rules, standards and requirements of correct political research as well as basic criteria of analytical correctness. The author formulates typology of analytical papers, assesses the state of environment and working conditions for today’s experts, analysis key problems and diffi culties at the stage of empirical data selection (including verifi cation of information sources, while choosing analytical methods and formulating conclusions. The article gives advice for experts, how to organize research, deal with diffi culties and fi nd non-standard solutions.

  1. Variance risk premia in CO_2 markets: A political perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reckling, Dennis

    2016-01-01

    The European Commission discusses the change of free allocation plans to guarantee a stable market equilibrium. Selling over-allocated contracts effectively depreciates prices and negates the effect intended by the regulator to establish a stable price mechanism for CO_2 assets. Our paper investigates mispricing and allocation issues by quantitatively analyzing variance risk premia of CO_2 markets over the course of changing regimes (Phase I-III) for three different assets (European Union Allowances, Certified Emissions Reductions and European Reduction Units). The research paper gives recommendations to regulatory bodies in order to most effectively cap the overall carbon dioxide emissions. The analysis of an enriched dataset, comprising not only of additional CO_2 assets, but also containing data from the European Energy Exchange, shows that variance risk premia are equal to a sample average of 0.69 for European Union Allowances (EUA), 0.17 for Certified Emissions Reductions (CER) and 0.81 for European Reduction Units (ERU). We identify the existence of a common risk factor across different assets that justifies the presence of risk premia. Various policy implications with regards to gaining investors’ confidence in the market are being reviewed. Consequently, we recommend the implementation of a price collar approach to support stable prices for emission allowances. - Highlights: •Enriched dataset covering all three political phases of the CO_2 markets. •Clear policy implications for regulators to most effectively cap the overall CO_2 emissions pool. •Applying a cross-asset benchmark index for variance beta estimation. •CER contracts have been analyzed with respect to variance risk premia for the first time. •Increased forecasting accuracy for CO_2 asset returns by using variance risk premia.

  2. Radiation risks and benefits: politics and morality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maxey, M.N.

    1983-01-01

    The bioethical framework from which moral reasoning concerning nuclear technology has been derived is both seriously flawed and conceptually inadequate. The reasons are examined and are arranged in response to three questions. First, what is the status of alleged scientific evidence from which moral conclusions about the unacceptability of man-made radiation exposures are derived. Secondly, what criticisms of risk assessment reasoning are pertinent to ethical reflection. Finally, what revisions in an ethical framework are necessary if risk estimates of low-dose radiation exposure are to be conducted properly

  3. Dutch Courage : The Politics of Acceptable Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jan van der Meulen; prof. dr. J.M.L.M. Soeters

    2005-01-01

    In this article we analyze the ways in which the risks of military missions and the prospects for casualties have made an impact on the deployment of soldiers by the Netherlands. The question is whether the self-image of being a military nation acts as a hindrance to participation when the going

  4. Becoming Criminal: The Cultural Politics of Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Derrick

    2006-01-01

    At the same time as youth crime in the UK is falling, there has been an increase in the numbers of young people in custody together with an explosion of social policy initiatives aimed at young people deemed to be "at risk" of becoming criminal and focused upon the prevention of future offending and inclusion in mainstream society. This…

  5. Political risks of hydrocarbon deposit development in the Arctic seas of the Russian Federation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolsunovskaya, Y A; Boyarko, G Yu; Bolsunovskaya, L M

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays the process of Arctic development has a long-term international cooperation character. Economic and geopolitical interests of both arctic and non-arctic countries meet in the region. Apart from resource development issues, there are problems concerning security, sustainable development and some others issues conditioned by climate and geographical characteristics of the region. Strategic analysis of political risks for the Russian Federation is carried out. The analysis reveals that political risks of hydrocarbon deposits development in the RF arctic seas appear as lack of coordination with arctic countries in solving key regional problems, failure to follow international agreements. Such inconsistency may lead to political risks, which results in strained situation in the region

  6. Political Role of Tribes : Analysis of Tribalism, Islamism and Gender ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Political Role of Tribes : Analysis of Tribalism, Islamism and Gender in Iraq, Jordan ... When countries such as Jordan and Yemen adopted political pluralism, the ... Sign up now for IDRC news and views sent directly to your inbox each month.

  7. Consensus and conflict resolution: The politics of assessing risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelkin, D.; Pollak, M.

    1980-01-01

    Not the structure of experiments can be generalized but the conditions that will allow dissenting groups to communicate effectively with administrative agencies. This includes a careful definition of the problem that gives due weight to political concerns, the appropriate involvement of affected interests, an unbiased management of the procedures, a fair distribution of expertise, and a real margin of choice. One of the more important outcomes of recent disputes is an awareness that technologies embody not only risks but also controversial political and social choices. (DG)

  8. Social media analysis during political turbulence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonakaki, Despoina; Spiliotopoulos, Dimitris; V Samaras, Christos; Pratikakis, Polyvios; Ioannidis, Sotiris; Fragopoulou, Paraskevi

    2017-01-01

    Today, a considerable proportion of the public political discourse on nationwide elections proceeds in Online Social Networks. Through analyzing this content, we can discover the major themes that prevailed during the discussion, investigate the temporal variation of positive and negative sentiment and examine the semantic proximity of these themes. According to existing studies, the results of similar tasks are heavily dependent on the quality and completeness of dictionaries for linguistic preprocessing, entity discovery and sentiment analysis. Additionally, noise reduction is achieved with methods for sarcasm detection and correction. Here we report on the application of these methods on the complete corpus of tweets regarding two local electoral events of worldwide impact: the Greek referendum of 2015 and the subsequent legislative elections. To this end, we compiled novel dictionaries for sentiment and entity detection for the Greek language tailored to these events. We subsequently performed volume analysis, sentiment analysis, sarcasm correction and topic modeling. Results showed that there was a strong anti-austerity sentiment accompanied with a critical view on European and Greek political actions.

  9. Sources of political violence, political and psychological analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. B. Balatska

    2015-05-01

    We also consider the following approaches to determining the nature and sources of aggression and violence such as instinktyvizm (K. Lorenz and behaviorism (J. B. Watson and B. F. Skinner et al.. Special attention is paid to theories of frustration aggression (J. Dollard, N. E. Miller, L. Berkowitz et al., according to which the causes of aggression and violence are hidden in a particular mental state – frustration. The particular importance of the theory of T. R. Gurr, in which the source of aggression and political violence are defined through the concept of relative deprivation, is underlined. Another approach is described in the article ­ the concept of aggression as a learned reaction (A. Bandura, G. Levin, B. Fleischmann et al.. Supporters of this approach believe that aggressive behavior is formed in the process of social training.

  10. Bias in risk-benefit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazur, A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

  11. INTEGRATED APPROACHES TO GEOPOLITICS AND RISKS IN INTERNATIONAL POLITICS

    OpenAIRE

    Dr. Sheriff Ghali Ibrahim; Dr. Iro Uke

    2016-01-01

    The paper examines the nature and impact of geopolitics on the global oil and gas business. It shows the relationship between politics and what nature provides such as oil and gas and the interplay between and among nations, people and institutions within the framework of geopolitics. The paper adopts the secondary methodology in order to investigate the risks (impact) attached to geopolitics. Findings show that, the concept of geopolitics is so versatile and multidimensional, enveloped by a ...

  12. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazu, X.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

  13. POLITICAL DISCOURSE – A SYNTACTIC AND SEMANTIC ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miodarka Tepavcevic

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The language of politics is commonly studied within discourse analysis, whereby its linguistic features relating to vocabulary, grammar structures, textual and intertextual aspects are investigated using various methodologies. This paper presents an analysis of political discourse from a syntactic-semantic point of view. The corpus studied has been extracted from five. Montenegrin dailies and the analysis attempts to describe the genre as effectuated in the Montenegrin political discourse. As a result, the functions of political language are extrapolated and illustrated and its style is described in terms of intertextuality and other linguistic strategies commonly employed in political discourse. The paper aims to give a contribution to the understanding and linguistic profiling of political language.

  14. European market integration for gas? Volume flexibility and political risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asche, Frank; Tveteras, Ragnar; Osmundsen, Petter

    2002-01-01

    Long-term take-or-pay contracts regulating gas exports to the Continent are described and analyzed. We thereafter examine whether the German gas market is integrated. Time series of Norwegian, Dutch and Russian gas export prices to Germany in 1990-1998 are examined. Cointegration tests show that that the different border prices for gas to Germany move proportionally over time, indicating an integrated gas market. We find differences in mean prices, with Russian gas being sold at prices systematically lower than Dutch and Norwegian gas. Among the explanatory factors for price discrepancies are differences in volume flexibility (swing) and perceived political risk

  15. Visual Linguistic Analysis of Political Discussions : Measuring Deliberative Quality

    OpenAIRE

    Gold, Valentin; El-Assady, Mennatallah; Hautli-Janisz, Annette; Bögel, Tina; Rohrdantz, Christian; Butt, Miriam; Holzinger, Katharina; Keim, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    This article reports on a Digital Humanities research project which is concerned with the automated linguistic and visual analysis of political discourses with a particular focus on the concept of deliberative communication. According to the theory of deliberative communication as discussed within political science, political debates should be inclusive and stakeholders participating in these debates are required to justify their positions rationally and respectfully and should eventually def...

  16. Risk analysis: opening the process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

    1998-01-01

    This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

  17. Sociological analysis of contemporary Turkish political elites

    OpenAIRE

    D. Ali Arslan

    2007-01-01

    This study was designed to find general characteristics of Contemporary Turkish political Elites since 1995 up to date. Social background characteristics were employed to realise the purposes. Documentary and historical research techniques were used during the study. As a result of examining the Contemporary Turkish political elites (since 1995 up to 2005) these major findings were discovered: the large majority of the Turkish parliamentary elites were well educated, male, middle aged, marrie...

  18. Political epidemiology: strengthening socio-political analysis for mass immunisation - lessons from the smallpox and polio programmes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, S

    2009-01-01

    Control and reduction of infectious diseases is a key to attaining the Millennium Development Goals. An important element of this work is the successful immunisation, especially in resource-poor countries. Mass immunisation, most intensively in the case of eradication, depends on a combination of reliable demand (e.g. public willingness to comply with the vaccine protocol) and effective supply (e.g. robust, generally state-led, vaccine delivery). This balance of compliance and enforceability is, quintessentially, socio-political in nature - conditioned by popular perceptions of disease and risk, wider conditions of economic development and poverty, technical aspects of vaccine delivery, and the prevailing international norms regarding power relations between states and peoples. In the past 100 years, three out of six disease eradication programmes have failed. The explanations for failure have focused on biotechnical and managerial or financial issues. Less attention is paid to socio-political aspects. Yet socio-political explanations are key. Eradication is neither inherently prone to failure, nor necessarily doomed in the case of polio. However, eradication, and similar mass immunisation initiatives, which fail to address social and political realities of intervention may be. A comparison of the smallpox and polio eradication programmes illustrates the importance of disease-specific socio-political analysis in programme conceptualisation, design, and management.

  19. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  20. From text to political positions: The convergence of political, linguistic and discourse analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Elfrinkhof, A.M.E.; Maks, I.; Kaal, A.R.; Kaal, A.R.; Maks, I.; van Elfrinkhof, A.M.E.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract: This chapter explores how three methods of political text analysis can complement each other to differentiate parties in detail. A word-frequency method and corpus linguistic techniques are joined by critical discourse analysis in an attempt to assess the ideological relation between

  1. Politics of energy and the NEP: a framework and analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toner, G B

    1984-01-01

    This dissertation examines the nature and evolution of Canadian energy politics, with the focus on the 1973-1983 period and on the oil and gas aspects of energy. The conceptual basis for undertaking the analysis is development and application of an integrated framework for the study of energy politics in Canada. The introduction of the National Energy Program (NEP) by the federal Liberal government in October, 1980, marked a significant conjuncture in the development of Canadian energy politics. The NEP was intended to be a signal of a revitalized central government as well as bargaining stance in the ongoing price and revenue sharing negotiations. Thus, the NEP must be understood as first and foremost a political act. This research suggests that energy politics must be understood as the outcome of conflict and consensus within the government industry and intergovernmental relationships of power, over the ability to influence and control energy developments. To attempt to explain energy politics as essentially the outcome of interaction between government and industry with intergovernmental relations simply reflecting intra-industry competition, or conversely, to explain energy politics as merely the toing and froing of competing governments, is to present a fundamentally flawed portrayed of Canadian energy politics. That is, the dynamic force driving energy politics in Canada is a three-sided set of competitive relations between governments and the industry.

  2. Decommissioning wind energy projects: An economic and political analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrell, Shannon L.; DeVuyst, Eric A.

    2013-01-01

    Wind energy is the fastest-growing segment of new electrical power capacity in the United States, with the potential for significant growth in the future. To facilitate such growth, a number of concerns between developers and landowners must be resolved, including assurance of wind turbine decommissioning at the end of their useful lives. Oklahoma legislators enlisted the authors to develop an economically-sound proposal to ensure developers complete their decommissioning obligations. Economic analysis of turbine decommissioning is complicated by a lack of operational experience, as few U.S. projects have been decommissioned. This leads to a lack of data regarding decommissioning costs. Politically, the negotiation leading to the finally-enacted solution juxtaposed economic theory against political pragmatism, leading to a different but hopefully sound solution. This article will provide background for the decommissioning issue, chronicle the development of the decommissioning component of the Oklahoma Wind Energy Act, and frame issues that remain for policymakers in regulating wind power development. - Highlights: ► Wind energy is the fastest-growing component of U.S. power generation. ► Decommissioning wind projects is policy concern for wind development. ► Little public information on wind turbine decommissioning costs exists. ► Oklahoma’s solution attempts to account for both costs and risks. ► Additional research is needed to create a more precise policy solution.

  3. Political leaders and the media: can we measure political leadership images in newspapers using computer-assisted content analysis?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aaldering, L.; Vliegenthart, R.

    2016-01-01

    Despite the large amount of research into both media coverage of politics as well as political leadership, surprisingly little research has been devoted to the ways political leaders are discussed in the media. This paper studies whether computer-aided content analysis can be applied in examining

  4. Competitive effects and instruments of power sector reforms. International reform concepts blockade structures, risk distribution. A political economy analysis; Wettbewerbseffekte und Instrumente von Stromsektorreformen. Internationale Reformkonzepte, Blockadestrukturen, Risikoverteilung. Eine politoekonomische Analyse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liebchen, Armin [Liebchen Consulting, Berlin (Germany)

    2014-07-01

    Power sectors with weak or inadequate competition structures are the rule, despite numerous attempts at reform. But can afford modern economies this defect for a long time? Why can the implementation of competition are blocked so effectively? The author studied international reform experiences and opens up interesting insights that can also reflect on problems of the German energy turnaround: The difficulty of timing and coordination of the reform components, the development of resistance levels of individual interest groups, breach of contract as a rational alternative, causes unwanted price effects, shifting interest situations of major stakeholders, change dynamics impending regulatory risks, pending financing risks, stranded cost-conflict situations for power stations disconnected from the grid and facilities and instruments of a political and regulatory risk management for reforms. With numerous examples, background analyzes and instruments to reform analysis, this book is aimed at investors, policy planners and analysts. [German] Stromsektoren mit schwachen oder unzulaenglichen Wettbewerbsstrukturen sind trotz zahlreicher Reformversuche die Regel. Aber koennen sich moderne Volkswirtschaften diesen Mangel dauerhaft leisten? Warum kann die Einfuehrung von Wettbewerb so wirksam blockiert werden? Der Autor untersucht internationale Reformerfahrungen und eroeffnet interessante Einsichten, die sich auch auf Problemlagen der deutschen Energiewende spiegeln lassen: Die Schwierigkeit des richtigen Timings und der Abstimmung der Reformteile, dem Aufbau von Widerstandslinien einzelner Interessensgruppen, Vertragsbruch als rationaler Alternative, Ursachen unerwuenschter Preiseffekte, sich verschiebenden Interessenslagen wichtiger Akteure, Veraenderungsdynamik drohender Regulierungsrisiken, schwebenden Finanzierungsrisiken, stranded-cost-Konfliktlagen fuer vom Netz genommene Kraftwerke und Moeglichkeiten und Instrumenten eines politisch-regulatorischen Risikomanagements

  5. Political Polarization in Social Media: Analysis of the "Twitter Political Field" in Japan

    OpenAIRE

    Takikawa, Hiroki; Nagayoshi, Kikuko

    2017-01-01

    There is an ongoing debate about whether the Internet is like a public sphere or an echo chamber. Among many forms of social media, Twitter is one of the most crucial online places for political debate. Most of the previous studies focus on the formal structure of the Twitter political field, such as its homophilic tendency, or otherwise limit the analysis to a few topics. In order to explore whether Twitter functions as an echo chamber in general, however, we have to investigate not only the...

  6. Political Discourse Analysis Through Solving Problems of Graph Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica Patrut

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we show how, using graph theory, we can make a content analysis of political discourse. Assumptions of this analysis are:
    - we have a corpus of speech of each party or candidate;
    - we consider that speech conveys economic, political, socio-cultural values, these taking the form of words or word families;
    - we consider that there are interdependences between the values of a political discourse; they are given by the co-occurrence of two values, as words in the text, within a well defined fragment, or they are determined by the internal logic of political discourse;
    - established links between values in a political speech have associated positive numbers indicating the "power" of those links; these "powers" are defined according to both the number of co-occurrences of values, and the internal logic of the discourse where they occur.
    In this context we intend to highlight the following:
    a which is the dominant value in a political speech;
    b which groups of values have ties between them and have no connection with the rest;
    c which is the order in which political values should be set in order to obtain an equivalent but more synthetic speech compared to the already given one;
    d which are the links between values that form the "core" political speech.
    To solve these problems, we shall use the Political Analyst program. After that, we shall present the concepts necessary to the understanding of the introductory graph theory, useful in understanding the analysis of the software and then the operation of the program. This paper extends the previous paper [6].

  7. The role of analysis on the 17 most political acres on the face of the earth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbuckle, Donald R

    2011-06-01

    Benefit-cost and risk analyses associated with agency rule making are required by presidential order and are reviewed by the Office of Management and Budget's (OMB) Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA). This White House oversight of agency regulatory analysis means that OIRA's work, though primarily analytic, competes daily with the intense political pressures that characterize all work in the White House. Even in the face of the demands of politics, analysis is respected and utilized. A balance between politics and analysis is maintained in several ways. Several structural characteristics of the White House help protect analysis, such as a strong complement of offices whose role is primarily analytic (for example, the Council of Economic Advisors, the Office of Science and Technology Policy, and OMB). OIRA's ability to successfully coordinate its regulatory review with White House officials ensures that it serves as an agent for presidential regulatory policy at the same time it champions higher quality benefit-cost and risk analysis. This role as intermediary between analytic and political judgment also results from OIRA's expertise in such analysis and its reputation for the discretion necessary to maintain the trust of the president's upper level staff. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. "Mind the Gap": Researchers Ignore Politics at Their Own Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feder, Judith

    2016-02-01

    No matter how distasteful researchers find policy politics, effective policy requires that they engage. Drawing on her career bridging the research/politics gap in health care policy, the author makes a case for why and how researchers can do just that. Copyright © 2016 by Duke University Press.

  9. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  10. The necessity for comparative risk analyses as seen from the political point of view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steger, U.

    1981-01-01

    The author describes the current insufficient utilization of risk analyses in the political decision process and investigates if other technologies encounter the same difficulties of acceptance as in the nuclear energy field. This being likely he is trying to find out which contribution comparative risk analyses could make to the process of democratic will-formation so that new technologies are accepted. Firstly the author establishes theses criticizing the recent scientific efforts made in the field of risk analyses and their usability for the political decision process. He then defines the criteria risk analyses have to meet in order to serve as scientific elements for consultative political discussions. (orig./HP) [de

  11. Trust, emotion, sex, politics, and science: surveying the risk-assessment battlefield.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slovic, P

    1999-08-01

    Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept "risk" and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by worldviews, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach--one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical analysis, and increase

  12. Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk-Assessment Battlefield

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slovic, Paul [Decision Research, Eugene, OR (United States)

    2001-07-01

    Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept 'risk' and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by world views, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach-one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical

  13. Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk-Assessment Battlefield

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slovic, Paul

    2001-01-01

    Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept 'risk' and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by world views, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach-one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical analysis, and increase

  14. Political regimes, political ideology, and self-rated health in Europe: A multilevel analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijts, T.H.M.; Perkins, J.M.; Subramanian, S.V.

    2010-01-01

    Background Studies on political ideology and health have found associations between individual ideology and health as well as between ecological measures of political ideology and health. Individual ideology and aggregate measures such as political regimes, however, were never examined

  15. Political regimes, political ideology, and self-rated health in Europe : a multilevel analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijts, T.; Perkins, J.M; Subramanian, S.V.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Studies on political ideology and health have found associations between individual ideology and health as well as between ecological measures of political ideology and health. Individual ideology and aggregate measures such as political regimes, however, were never examined

  16. International financial linkages of Latin American banks: the effects of political risk and deposit dollarisation

    OpenAIRE

    Ramon-Ballester, Francisco; Wezel, Torsten

    2007-01-01

    This paper empirically investigates the extent to which the financial linkages of Latin American banks with the exterior are influenced by political risk and deposit dollarisation. We find that the sum of banks’ foreign assets and liabilities is a function of risk-return considerations and excess domestic credit demand. An increase in political risk is shown to be associated with a build-up of foreign positions by the banking sector, but this adverse effect on the banking system is mitigated ...

  17. Political parties and politics on the Internet: An analysis of the websites of Catalan political parties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albert Padró-Solanet

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available

    The article analyses the use of New Information and Communications Technologies (NICT by the political parties, going beyond approaches focusing on the potential of these technologies for political transformation and renovation. In order to do this a set of variables that characterise the strategic position of the Catalan parties is employed: ideology, organisation and position in the electoral market. The analysis shows three different forms of usage of the Internet. One group of parties (PSC, CDC-CiU uses it to promote participation and campaigning activities; a second group (ICV, Cs, to generate new resources, and finally, a third group (PSC, ERC uses it to build contact networks. The size, and to a lesser degree the type of organisation, stand out as the major explanatory variables. The major parties use the Internet to promote campaign activities and participation; in contrast, smaller parties tend to make use of the Internet to generate new sources of financing and workforce. Depending on the type of organisation, the parties of the masses seem to be more likely to use the Internet to set up and activate an extensive contact network which recreates the characteristic associative realm of these parties in cyberspace.

  18. Spatial Analysis of Political Capital Citation Using Remote Sensing ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Spatial Analysis of Political Capital Citation Using Remote Sensing and GIS; A Case Study of Lokoja. ... The PDF file you selected should load here if your Web browser has a PDF reader plug-in installed (for example, a recent version of Adobe Acrobat Reader). If you would like more information about how to print, save, ...

  19. A STYLISTIC ANALYSIS OF THE LANGUAGE OF POLITICAL ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    job. This study is a synchronic stylistic analysis of the various political utterances used during the electioneering process in ... as “The variety of language according to use” in situations such as ..... “Bruharity” is adapted from the English word.

  20. Political regime and human capital: A cross-country analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klomp, J.G.; Haan, de J.

    2013-01-01

    We examine the relationship between different dimensions of the political regime in place and human capital using a two-step structural equation model. In the first step, we employ factor analysis on 16 human capital indicators to construct two new human capital measures (basic and advanced human

  1. Political regime and human capital : A cross-country analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klomp, J.G.; de Haan, J.

    We examine the relationship between different dimensions of the political regime in place and human capital using a two-step structural equation model. In the first step, we employ factor analysis on 16 human capital indicators to construct two new human capital measures (basic and advanced human

  2. Political Regime and Human Capital: A Cross-Country Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klomp, Jeroen; de Haan, Jakob

    2013-01-01

    We examine the relationship between different dimensions of the political regime in place and human capital using a two-step structural equation model. In the first step, we employ factor analysis on 16 human capital indicators to construct two new human capital measures (basic and advanced human capital). In the second step, we estimate the…

  3. Observations on risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.

    1979-11-01

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

  4. Subjectivisation and feminism. An analysis of a political manifesto

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucia Gómez

    2004-05-01

    Full Text Available The theme of this article is the the Italian feminist movement of the 1980s. That movement was characterised by political transformation and a crtitique of identity. The article takes as its point of departure the inaugural speech of the movement, the manifesto "Piu donne che uomini" (1983. The analysis that we present is inspired in the work of Michel Foucault. It aims to show to that the production of new feministic subjectivities, when fighting the symbolic dimension of masculine domination, has an intrinsically political character. In the 1980s, in the Italian context and particularly in the feminist movement, the rules of the political game set up by the events of 1968 materialized. That allows us to evaluate the effects, achievements and contradictions of an anti-institutional policy that takes as its object one's own identity.

  5. POLITICAL RISK ON THE FINANCIAL MARKET The problem of adequate scientific assessment of business operations - the naivety of economists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leszek Dziawgo

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the significant problems of a modern economy and economics is political risk. A destructive influence of politics on the financial market cannot be ignored. It is necessary to indicate some selected specific problems of the financial market connected with politics in the area of: public finance (including EU, monetary policy and capital market. Nowadays, the scale and dynamics of political interference in the economy and finance leads to the problem of rationality in business activities. Moreover, many hidden political factors change the political risk into immeasurable political uncertainty.

  6. Scientific risk communication about controversial issues influences public perceptions of scientists' political orientations and credibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vraga, Emily; Myers, Teresa; Kotcher, John; Beall, Lindsey; Maibach, Ed

    2018-02-01

    Many scientists communicate with the public about risks associated with scientific issues, but such communication may have unintended consequences for how the public views the political orientations and the credibility of the communicating scientist. We explore this possibility using an experiment with a nationally representative sample of Americans in the fall of 2015. We find that risk communication on controversial scientific issues sometimes influences perceptions of the political orientations and credibility of the communicating scientist when the scientist addresses the risks of issues associated with conservative or liberal groups. This relationship is moderated by participant political ideology, with liberals adjusting their perceptions of the scientists' political beliefs more substantially when the scientist addressed the risks of marijuana use when compared with other issues. Conservatives' political perceptions were less impacted by the issue context of the scientific risk communication but indirectly influenced credibility perceptions. Our results support a contextual model of audience interpretation of scientific risk communication. Scientists should be cognizant that audience members may make inferences about the communicating scientist's political orientations and credibility when they engage in risk communication efforts about controversial issues.

  7. Expanding the disaster risk management framework: Measuring the constructed level of national identity as a factor of political risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barend Prinsloo

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Political risk is identified as a dominant risk category of disaster risk management (DRM which could negatively affect the success of those measures implemented to reduce disaster risk. Key to political risk is the construct of national identity which, if poorly constructed, could greatly contribute to political risk. This article proposed a tool to measure the construct of national identity and to provide recommendations to strengthen the construct in order to mitigate the exacerbating influence it may have on political risk and ultimately on DRM. The design of the measurement tool consisted of a mixed methodological approach employing both quantitative and qualitative data. The data collection instruments included a literature review (which is shortly provided in the previous sections and an empirical study that utilised data obtained through structured questionnaires. Although the results of the proposed measuring instrument did not include a representative sample of all the cultures in SouthAfrica, the results alluded to different levels for the construction of national identity among black and white respondents, possibly because of different ideological expectations among these groups. The results of the study should be considered as a validation of the measuring tool and not necessarily of the construct of national identity in South Africa. The measuring tool is thus promising for future studies to reduce political risk and ultimately disaster risk.

  8. The importance of the impact of political risk factors in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudolf Essel

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Political risk factors often impact negatively on the financial results of an enterprise, industry, geographical region or an entire country. In severe cases they may even lead to financial disasters. Previous research (by Essel identified 10 specific political risk factors which are common to emerging market economies. As South Africa is a developing country with an emerging market economy, these 10 political risk factors should also be present in this country. This paper focuses on the importance of the impact of political risk factors on an agent’s total annual claims amount when underwriting political risk insurance in South Africa. The objective of this research paper embodies the improvement of financial decision-making by a particular enterprise, industry, geographical region or country operating in an emerging market economy, pertaining to the importance of the impact of political risk factors. A literature study as well as an empirical survey was done to achieve the study’s objective. The conclusions of this research should also be valuable to other enterprises, industries, geographical regions or countries which operate in an emerging market economy.

  9. Political Discourse Analysis on Trump’s Ideology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bayu Adi Sulistyo

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study belongs to Critical Discourse Analysis in sub-branch of Political Discourse. The analysis of this research uses the CDA theory by Norman Fairclough which is widely known as 3D model. Since CDA is closely related to ideology, this study investigates the ideology held by the text producer, speaker. The data used in this study is the speeches delivered by Trump in 2015 as the announcement of his decision to run in the US presidential race. Generally, there are two major topics in them: the dissatisfaction of the current government’s work, especially in economical and political aspect, and the negative perception on Islam. These are considered as Trump’s ideology. Based on the analysis, it can be inferred that Trump seems to have been successfull in creating his discourse. He has successfully persuaded the audience to be on his side.

  10. Online politics: a cross-national explanatory analysis of political websites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Noort, G.; Kruikemeier, S.; Aparaschivei, A.; Boomgaarden, H.; Vliegenthart, R.

    2013-01-01

    This study provides a systematic investigation of party and candidate websites in five European countries: Germany, Romania, Hungary, The Netherlands and Great Britain. It examines three features of online political communication that are presented on political websites (interactivity,

  11. POLITICAL POWER IN THE PRISM OF POLITICAL ANALYSIS (EXPERIENCE REVIEW OF CURRENT RESEARCH DIRECTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Kuryukin

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The broad theoretical material considered relevant areas of the study of political power. Reveals the patterns of occurrence and development of a strictly scientific views on political power as a phenomenon and a social process. Determined the current trends of development of theoreticalunderstanding of political power in relation to the stages of its evolution. The most urgent technological model of exercising political power.

  12. Political institutions as substitute for democracy: a political economy analysis of economic growth

    OpenAIRE

    Pereira, Carlos; Teles, Vladimir Kühl

    2009-01-01

    This manuscript empirically assesses the effects of political institutions on economic growth. It analyzes how political institutions affect economic growth in different stages of democratization and economic development by means of dynamic panel estimation with interaction terms. The new empirical results obtained show that political institutions work as a substitute for democracy promoting economic growth. In other words, political institutions are important for increasing economic growth, ...

  13. Political regimes, political ideology, and self-rated health in Europe: a multilevel analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Huijts, T.; Perkins, J.M; Subramanian, S.V.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Studies on political ideology and health have found associations between individual ideology and health as well as between ecological measures of political ideology and health. Individual ideology and aggregate measures such as political regimes, however, were never examined simultaneously. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using adjusted logistic multilevel models to analyze data on individuals from 29 European countries and Israel, we found that individual ideology and political r...

  14. HOW MULTINATIONAL CORPORATIONS USE LOBBYING AND ADVOCACY TO MITIGATE POLITICAL RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Violeta Iftinchi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In their international activities multinational corporations (MNCs face various risks. Political risk is one of them. Expropriations, transfer and convertibility restrictions, breach of contracts, acts of terrorism, domestic political violence or other adverse regulatory changes and/or negative government action represent forms of political risks. Incorporating political risk in their risk management strategies becomes a necessity for MNCs in their search for profits and new markets. This article presents how MNCs use lobbying and advocacy as means to engage with governments and politicians in the country of origin (home country, in the country where a MNC has operations (host country or at international level (by creating ties with international organisations in order to mitigate political risks. The case of Repsol and its investment in Argentina is used to demonstrate the application of such tools. The article presents two limitations that might determine the success or failure of MNCs’ lobbying and advocacy activities: governments' unpredictable views towards MNCs and reputational risks. The article has also identified a main difficulty in identifying and examining MNCs way of using lobbying and advocacy to engage with government officials and politicians. This difficulty comes from the informal character of such contacts which makes lobbying and advocacy almost impossible to identify.

  15. Is risk analysis scientific?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Climate Change, State Stability, and Political Risk in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-30

    www.acq.osd.mil/dsb/reports/ADA552760.pdf. iii P.P. Hearn Jr. et al., “Global GIS Database; Digital Atlas of Africa,” USGS Numbered Series, Data...Series, (2001), http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/ds62B. iv U.S. Geological Survey World Conventional Resources Assessment Team, “USGS Digital ...Retrenchment and the Exercise of Citizenship in Africa,” Comparative Political Studies 44, 9 (2011): 1238-1266; Jennifer N. Brass, “Blurring Boundaries

  17. Strategies and deficits in the political treatment of technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dierkes, M.; Thienen, V. von.

    1982-01-01

    To seek approaches for an explanation of the public debate about certain technological risk sources, the authors present an analytical model of risk management techniques. It permits to describe traditional patterns of risk management which frequently are not based on rational categories and pursue a limited number of aims in strategic steps. It concentrates on single major events (catastrophies) and the mistigation of such damage and points out that some risk management techniques related to the utilization of new technologies, unlike the complex traditional forms of risk management, are increasingly aimed at preventing damage occurring in the first place. The chances for a more systematic and acceptable risk management satisfying the growing demands of developing modern technologies are discussed. (orig./HP) [de

  18. Comparative risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

  19. Political Regimes, Political Ideology, and Self-Rated Health in Europe: A Multilevel Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huijts, Tim; Perkins, Jessica M.; Subramanian, S. V.

    2010-01-01

    Background Studies on political ideology and health have found associations between individual ideology and health as well as between ecological measures of political ideology and health. Individual ideology and aggregate measures such as political regimes, however, were never examined simultaneously. Methodology/Principal Findings Using adjusted logistic multilevel models to analyze data on individuals from 29 European countries and Israel, we found that individual ideology and political regime are independently associated with self-rated health. Individuals with rightwing ideologies report better health than leftwing individuals. Respondents from Eastern Europe and former Soviet republics report poorer health than individuals from social democratic, liberal, Christian conservative, and former Mediterranean dictatorship countries. In contrast to individual ideology and political regimes, country level aggregations of individual ideology are not related to reporting poor health. Conclusions/Significance This study shows that although both individual political ideology and contextual political regime are independently associated with individuals' self-rated health, individual political ideology appears to be more strongly associated with self-rated health than political regime. PMID:20661433

  20. Political regimes, political ideology, and self-rated health in Europe: a multilevel analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huijts, Tim; Perkins, Jessica M; Subramanian, S V

    2010-07-22

    Studies on political ideology and health have found associations between individual ideology and health as well as between ecological measures of political ideology and health. Individual ideology and aggregate measures such as political regimes, however, were never examined simultaneously. Using adjusted logistic multilevel models to analyze data on individuals from 29 European countries and Israel, we found that individual ideology and political regime are independently associated with self-rated health. Individuals with rightwing ideologies report better health than leftwing individuals. Respondents from Eastern Europe and former Soviet republics report poorer health than individuals from social democratic, liberal, Christian conservative, and former Mediterranean dictatorship countries. In contrast to individual ideology and political regimes, country level aggregations of individual ideology are not related to reporting poor health. This study shows that although both individual political ideology and contextual political regime are independently associated with individuals' self-rated health, individual political ideology appears to be more strongly associated with self-rated health than political regime.

  1. Political determinants of social expenditures in Greece: an empirical analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ebru Canikalp

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available A view prominently expounded is that the interaction between the composition and the volume of public expenditures is directly affected by political, institutional, psephological and ideological indicators. A crucial component of public expenditures, social expenditures play an important role in the economy as they directly and indirectly affect the distribution of income and wealth. Social expenditures aim at reallocating income and wealth unequal distribution. These expenditures comprise cash benefits, direct in-kind provision of goods and services, and tax breaks with social purposes.The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between political structure, i.e. government fragmentation, ideological composition, elections and so on, and the social expenditures in Greece. Employing data from the Comparative Political Dataset (CPDS and the OECD Social Expenditure Database (SOCX, a time series analysis was conducted for Greece for the 1980-2014 period. The findings of the study indicate that voter turnout, spending on the elderly population and the number of government changes have positive and statistically significant effects on social expenditures in Greece while debt stock and cabinet composition have negative effects.

  2. Identity politics: implications for gender analysis policy and training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erturk, Y

    1997-01-01

    As attention has shifted from a concern for citizenship, equality, and welfare to ideas of empowerment, equity, and governance, the locus of competition over power has rested with "identity politics," a recognition of cultural diversity that claims the legitimate right to produce alternative definitions and symbols of identity in public space. The change in identity formation from universal/national to fractured/tribalizing has implications for gender relations in contexts where patriarchal power controls production and reproduction. Except for feminism, all discourses in the current competition over identity politics are patriarchal. A look at the forces of change that shifted the process of modernization to a process of globalization reveals that, while modernization tends to standardize, globalization embraces the contradictory forces of universalizing and diversifying trends. Issues of identity and inequality were not problematic until the modern and the traditional subsumed each other and, thus, revealed the inherent contradictions of modernization. The diversifying forces that jeopardize the transnationalization of identity into membership in a "human society" include 1) language differences among the working classes, 2) growing global inequalities, and 3) collective memories of antagonistic histories. An analysis of gender based on identity politics can be conducted on a macro-level to understand the reluctance of central governments to initiate certain interventions, competing needs, new contradictions, changing gender roles, and the importance of promoting a global social contract.

  3. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  4. [Debating disease: the risk factor concept in political economic and scientific consideration, 1968 to 1986].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madarász, Jeannette

    2009-01-01

    The risk factor concept was developed in American epidemiological studies ongoing since the 1940s researching the causes of chronic cardiovascular diseases. By looking at the depiction of this model in a variety of media in Germany between 1968 and 1986 we can put its close interaction with contemporary socio-political debates under scrutiny. Thereby, a strong connection between the various agents' political and economic interests on the one hand and the incorporation of the risk factor concept into their specific agendas will become apparent. The risk factor concept was not fundamentally changed in the process but it was adapted to contemporary conditions and political constellations. Thereby, so it will be argued, the medical uses of the model, especially regarding the prevention of chronic cardiovascular disease, were forced into the background of public debates.

  5. TV programming in times of changing political communication: a longitudinal analysis of the political information environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Santen, R.; Vliegenthart, R.

    2013-01-01

    Debate about the quantity of political information often tends to evaluate television negatively since it became a widely used mass medium. Systematic data on the supply and proportion of political information on television, however, are scarce. This research fills this gap by presenting a

  6. The Pros and Cons of Using Joint Ventures as a Tool to Mitigate Political Risks in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Violeta Iftinchi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available As part of their political risk management strategy, multinational corporations (MNCs can use joint ventures as a tool to reduce their exposure to political risks in international activities. The aim of this article is to present the main benefits for MNCs in using joint ventures with a local partner to mitigate political risks in developing countries and to put forward three risks that MNCs have to consider when choosing the local partner (the risk of opportunistic expropriation, the risk associated with transferring of intellectual property rights and reputational risk.

  7. Component of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

  8. Unsharpness-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preyssl, C.

    1986-01-01

    Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

  9. The Politics of Co-Production: Risks, Limits and Pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flinders, Matthew; Wood, Matthew; Cunningham, Malaika

    2016-01-01

    Co-production is a risky method of social inquiry. It is time-consuming, ethically complex, emotionally demanding, inherently unstable, vulnerable to external shocks, subject to competing demands and it challenges many disciplinary norms. This is what makes it so fresh and innovative. And yet these research-related risks are rarely discussed and,…

  10. Risk, value conflict and political legitimacy. Chapter 7

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cotgrove, S.

    1981-01-01

    The differing views of environmentalists, the public and industrialists on the perception of dangers to the environment are analysed. The subject is continued under the headings: competing paradigms; acceptable risk; values for money - flowers or production; a crisis of legitimacy (query). (U.K.)

  11. Political economy analysis for tobacco control in low- and middle-income countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bump, Jesse B; Reich, Michael R

    2013-03-01

    Tobacco is already the world's leading cause of preventable death, claiming over 5 million lives annually, and this toll is rising. Even though effective tobacco control policies are well researched and widely disseminated, they remain largely unimplemented in most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). For the most part, control attempts by advocates and government regulators have been frustrated by transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) and their supporters. One reason tobacco is so difficult to control is that its political economy has yet to be adequately understood and addressed. We conducted a review of the literature on tobacco control in LMICs using the databases PubMed, EconLit, PsychInfo and AGRICOLA. Among the over 2500 papers and reports we identified, very few explicitly applied political economy analysis to tobacco control in an LMIC setting. The vast majority of papers characterized important aspects of the tobacco epidemic, including who smokes, the effects of smoking on health, the effectiveness of advertising bans, and the activities of TTCs and their allies. But the political and economic dynamics of policy adoption and implementation were not discussed in any but a handful of papers. To help control advocates better understand and manage the process of policy implementation, we identify how political economy analysis would differ from the traditional public health approaches that dominate the literature. We focus on five important problem areas: information problems and the risks of smoking; the roles of domestic producers; multinational corporations and trade disputes in consumption; smuggling; the barriers to raising taxes and establishing spatial restrictions on smoking; and incentive conflicts between government branches. We conclude by discussing the political economy of tobacco and its implications for control strategies.

  12. A critical analysis of political conditionality: political transformation in Turkey from 1999 to 2016

    OpenAIRE

    Sarı, Özge; Sari, Ozge

    2017-01-01

    The thesis applies the external incentives model to the Turkish transformation, by analysing the effectiveness and credibility of political conditionality. The main empirical data used is drawn from the Regular Progress Reports that the European Commission prepared for the period of 1999 when Turkey was granted the status of candidate at the Helsinki Summit until 2016 when the most recent Progress Report was released. The thesis examines that to which extent and under which conditions politic...

  13. Feminism and Political Participation in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Fatile Olufemi Jacob; Akhakpe Ighodalo; Igbokwe-Ibeto; Chinyeaka Justine; Oteh, Chukwuemeka Okpo Ph D

    2012-01-01

    Nigerian women have encountered a number of problems while venturing into politics. There is large scale discrimination from the men folk, both in voting for candidates and in allocating political offices. This paper examines women political participation in Nigeria and the challenges facing them. In analysizing the issues raised, the paper utilizes the nature of society, political, socio-cultural, and economic approach to feminism. To scientifically investigate the issues of feminism and pol...

  14. Adversarial risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

    2015-01-01

    Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

  15. Political Role of Tribes : Analysis of Tribalism, Islamism and Gender ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Tribal relations are deeply intertwined with political relations. ... When countries such as Jordan and Yemen adopted political pluralism, the political parties ... annuelle de l'Institut d'étude du développement international de l'Université McGill.

  16. How political affiliation affects adaptation to climate risks: Evidence from New York City

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botzen, W.J.W.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Kunreuther, H; De Moel, H; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    Research reveals that liberals and conservatives in the United States diverge about their beliefs regarding climate change. We show empirically that political affiliation also matters with respect to climate related risks such as flooding from hurricanes. Our study is based on a survey conducted 6

  17. Political affiliation affects adaptation to climate risks : Evidence from New York City

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botzen, W. J Wouter; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Kunreuther, Howard; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2016-01-01

    Research reveals that liberals and conservatives in the United States diverge about their beliefs regarding climate change. We show empirically that political affiliation also matters with respect to climate related risks such as flooding from hurricanes. Our study is based on a survey conducted 6

  18. Political, socio-economic, legal and civilizational risks on the way of Russia and the slavonic world towards sustainable development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey N. Baburin

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective to identify the political socioeconomic and legal risks on the way of Russia and the Slavonic world towards sustainable development. Methods dialectical approach to cognition of social phenomena allowing to analyze them in historical development and functioning in the context of the totality of objective and subjective factors that determined the choice of the following research methods systematic and structural formallegal and comparativelegal. Results the article views the system of risks on the way of Russia and the Slavonic world towards sustainable development which includes political socioeconomic legal and civilizational risks. Scientific recommendations are formulated for the identification analysis and elimination of risks. The main tendencies of the world order are identified changes in the structure of the statesrsquo national interests strengthening the role of nonstate actors promotion of democratic values and ideals the increasing role of international and interstate cooperation. Scientific novelty the article proposes a classification of risks that stand in the way of Russia and the Slavonic world towards sustainable development the necessity of their complex including constitutional overcoming and identifies the causes and conditions contributing to the emergence of the risks. Practical significance the main provisions and conclusions of the article can be used in scientific and educational activities in addressing the issues of planning and predicting the state and legal phenomena and processes.

  19. The risk to be reasonably accepted - an unreasonable demand on science, society, politics?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, B.

    1986-01-01

    Political ethics is a concept that is increasingly emerging in current public debate about the risks of technolgy. A risk that cannot be limited in time or in space, the risk we have got used to call the 'risk to be reasonably accepted', seems unacceptable. Energy generation and supply may not be given higher priority than life and health. It would be high time to prove courage and efficiency by opposing the 'nuclear laws of inertia', stopping nuclear technoloy, and admitting one's own feeling of insecurity. (DG) [de

  20. Analysis of the PPBE Process in the Current Dynamic Political Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-06-01

    provides a comparative analysis using the Political, Economic , Socio- Cultural, Technological, Ecological and Legal ( PESTEL ) Analysis model of the...37 A. PESTEL ANALYSIS OF THE 1960/1970 ERA...44 B. PESTEL ANALYSIS OF THE POST 9/11 ENVIRONMENT..................45 1. Political

  1. Political party affiliation, political ideology and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pabayo, Roman; Kawachi, Ichiro; Muennig, Peter

    2015-05-01

    Ecological and cross-sectional studies have indicated that conservative political ideology is associated with better health. Longitudinal analyses of mortality are needed because subjective assessments of ideology may confound subjective assessments of health, particularly in cross-sectional analyses. Data were derived from the 2008 General Social Survey-National Death Index data set. Cox proportional analysis models were used to determine whether political party affiliation or political ideology was associated with time to death. Also, we attempted to identify whether self-reported happiness and self-rated health acted as mediators between political beliefs and time to death. In this analysis of 32,830 participants and a total follow-up time of 498,845 person-years, we find that political party affiliation and political ideology are associated with mortality. However, with the exception of independents (adjusted HR (AHR)=0.93, 95% CI 0.90 to 0.97), political party differences are explained by the participants' underlying sociodemographic characteristics. With respect to ideology, conservatives (AHR=1.06, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.12) and moderates (AHR=1.06, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.11) are at greater risk for mortality during follow-up than liberals. Political party affiliation and political ideology appear to be different predictors of mortality. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  2. Emerging Politics of Authorship: Recovering Collectivity, Negotiating the Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Pisac

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This article examines authorship as a socially embedded process by challenging Western notions of the autonomous creative genius. It considers social interactions between various agents in the field of literary production which in turn recovers the collective nature of modern authorship. Far from leaving it unexamined, it further contextualises authorial collectivity and its role in the emerging model of authorship. Questions and arguments raised in this article are informed by the ethnographic data collected during my doctoral research focusing on the reception of post-1990s ex-Yugoslav literature on the UK book market. Such ethnographic approach to literary translations – i.e. the micro-level analysis of social interactions that ‘create’ literature – demonstrated how the author is ‘created’ in the communication of two literary systems through linguistic translation as well as re-translations of symbolic and social capitals. My research was concerned with analysing the ‘backstage’ of the publishing industry – informal networks and international literary geopolitics – which all contributed to debunking the myth of the autonomous creative genius. However, instead of retracing my steps, this article outlines new avenues and questions that such analysis has opened up. One such question is how new technologies are (reconstructing and (repositioning the role of the author.

  3. Management and policy: political strategies and instruments of the risk types

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renn, O.; Klinke, A.

    1998-01-01

    The main objective of the risk classification is to gain an effective and feasible policy tool for the evaluation and the management or risks. The characterisation provides a platform for designing specific political strategies and measures for each risk type. The strategies pursue the goal to transform unacceptable into acceptable risks, i.e. the risks should not be reduced to zero, but they should be reduced to a level that routine risk management becomes sufficient to ensure safety and integrity. All strategies and respective measures are arranged according to priorities. In the normal case more than one strategy and more than one measure are naturally appropriate and necessary. If resources are limited, strategies and measures should be taken in line with the priority list. The following part lists the prior strategies and the prior measures recommended for each risk type. (authors)

  4. A Semiotic Analysis of Political Cartoon of Iran Nuclear Program

    OpenAIRE

    SAFALIA, FITRIA

    2014-01-01

    Keywords: Semiotic, political cartoon, sign, icon, symbol, index, connotation In our society, information, ideas, or opinions can be delivered through news. The existence of news is very important in spreading information through the public since many events happen everyday and bring effects to the society. Nowadays, news is not only delivered through the words but also delivered through pictures and cartoons. In this study, the writer uses political cartoon as the object. The political cart...

  5. An economic analysis of the political promotion system in China

    OpenAIRE

    Jiancai Pi

    2017-01-01

    This paper mainly discusses the political promotion system in China. Specifically, we develop a generalized analytical framework by introducing the contest success function. On the one hand, the central government can give the optimal political promotion benefits to local officials to incentivize them to exert desirable developmental efforts. On the other hand, the central government can undertake a further design of the political promotion system to motivate local officials vi...

  6. Environmental risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

    1996-01-01

    The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

  7. The social construction of risk and the controversial Brazilian Nuclear Program: among scientific, political and public

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camelo, Ana Paula

    2015-01-01

    This research aims to investigate the Brazilian Nuclear Program (PNB) stating as reference the Fukushima nuclear accident. Its main purpose is to analyze how the Japanese accident impacted the PNB. Therefore, the program will be analyzed within 10-years (2004-2014) in order to answer this question. The discussion launched in this thesis is based on the framework of the Social Studies of Science and Technology, which enables the understanding of socio-technical controversies beyond the social or technological determinism. Through the discussion of the concepts of framing, socio-technical imaginary, risk and governance of science and technology, the research shows how the controversy in focus has resulted in the opportunity to consider not only economic, technological, environmental issues about nuclear energy, but also its political dimensions and challenges. Among these challenges, and from very different perspectives, arise questions about the role nuclear energy plays in the Brazilian context, the future of the program and the decision making process on these issues. Despite the central purpose of this study is essentially on risks, PNB and on the Brazilian context, it should be pointed that it is impossible to consider it in isolation of what is happening internationally (considering interests, tensions, relations between actors, etc.) The research thereby identifies key implications of Fukushima in the international context, but focuses on the disputes regarding possible review of the PNB. It also highlights how the socio-technical controversies, such as the nuclear energy, demand or impose a discussion on the governance of science and technology, risk and on the engagement of different sectors and actors in decision-making on issues, that are at the same time about energy, technology and nationality relevance. All this reflection is made from multi-sited analysis, which allowed following the controversy surrounding nuclear energy, reheated by the Fukushima

  8. Risk analysis and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uppuluri, V.R.R.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

  9. The Analysis Of Political Marketing Mix In Influencing Image And Reputation Of Political Party And Their Impact Toward The Competitiveness Of Political Party The Survey Of Voters In West Java Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dedeh Maryani

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Recently in Indonesia public trust toward political parties has been decreasing. Most voters tend to be neutral they had better to choose to none. The Experts argued that political competitivness will be high when political parties apply the accurate marketing mix or enhance their image and reputation. The aim of this research is to show how far political marketing mix in influencing the image or the reputation of political party and their impact toward the competitivness of 10 political parties conducted in Province West Java. I use quantitative method with explanatory survey method design. The population in this research is all voters in West Java while the samples are about 400 persons with cluster random sampling. Data analysis in this research is descriptive with Parsial Least Square PLS hypothesis test. PLS describes political marketing mix toward the image and the reputation of political party and their impact toward the competitivness of political party. The result shows that independent variable X political marketing mix gives a positive and significant influence to intervening variables Y1 and Y2 the image and the reputation of political party and dependent variable Y3 political party competitivness their impact to the variable depend on it. The finding in this study is that marketing mix has high influence toward the competitiveness of political party by enhancing the image and the reputation of political party.

  10. A Comparing and Contrasting Analysis of Cooperation and Politeness

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨菁; 黄大鹏

    2014-01-01

    <正>Language is the basic tool of communication between human beings and the society.In communication or social interaction,people should follow some principles such as Cooperation and Politeness,in order to achieve the goal of successful communication.As two of the communicative principles,Cooperation and Politeness have been widely accepted by people,especially

  11. An Analysis of Traditional Political Organizations: Lessons for the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper which is a discourse in political history, adopts the descriptive approach as it tends to assess tenets of socialism and egalitarianism as obtained in some ancient societies of Nigeria's south-south region. The contention of this paper is that, in as much as most of the tenets of politics and government as we know it ...

  12. Demographics and Volatile Social Security Wealth: Political Risks of Benefit Rule Changes in Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Christoph Borgmann; Matthias Heidler

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we address the question how the generosity of the benefit rule of the German public pension system has changed during the past three decades and how this development can be explained by demographic changes. Firstly, we illustrate the political risk of benefit rule changes for individuals. We find that depending on the birth year and the considered scenario the relative losses vary between 30 and nearly 60 percent. Secondly, we estimate how demographic developments have triggered...

  13. Political Risk and Foreign Exchange Rates: an Efficient-Market Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Jean-Claude Cosset; Bruno Doutriaux de la Rianderie

    1985-01-01

    This paper examines the reaction of the foreign exchange market to the announcement of changes in the business environment of a country. Our results suggest that sampled political risk news conveys important information about a country's investment climate and causes its currency's exchange rate to vary. It appears, however, that the reaction of the foreign exchange market is more dramatic for unfavorable events than for favorable events. The evidence presented is also consisted with the hypo...

  14. Mare Risk Analysis monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

  15. Methods for Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alverbro, Karin

    2010-01-01

    Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

  16. Regulating genetically modified food. Policy trajectories, political culture, and risk perceptions in the U.S., Canada, and EU.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohlers, Anton E

    2010-09-01

    This paper examines whether national differences in political culture add an explanatory dimension to the formulation of policy in the area of biotechnology, especially with respect to genetically modified food. The analysis links the formulation of protective regulatory policies governing genetically modified food to both country and region-specific differences in uncertainty tolerance levels and risk perceptions in the United States, Canada, and European Union. Based on polling data and document analysis, the findings illustrate that these differences matter. Following a mostly opportunistic risk perception within an environment of high tolerance for uncertainty, policymakers in the United States and Canada modified existing regulatory frameworks that govern genetically modified food in their respective countries. In contrast, the mostly cautious perception of new food technologies and low tolerance for uncertainty among European Union member states has contributed to the creation of elaborate and stringent regulatory policies governing genetically modified food.

  17. Use of the discourse analysis method to study current political practice (by the example of representation of the political leader image

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frolova Nadezhda

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The potentialities in the application of the discourse analysis method to study a political discourse as a current political practice are shown. The authors, using the Foucault methodology, offer a sociological definition for the political discourse. It is the authors’ opinion that the approach mentioned allows investigating a political discourse as a practice for the formation of a certain reality, specific agents, institutions and organizations. A political discourse is a simulative dynamic model of political area where various subdiscourses interact, thus creating their own ideas of policy, symbols and images. Subdiscourses of political leaders become dominating. Inasmuch as a political discourse in a current political system is carried out with the aid of mass media, it could be considered as a media discourse of policy. The authors consider the representation as a basic mechanism for the formation of a political discourse, by the example of the representation of the image of V.V. Putin, the President of the Russian Federation. The representation of a political leader image in a political discourse has a number of peculiarities. It is carried out on the basis of certain principles with the aid of the system of political codes. Empiric investigations allowed making a conclusion that the main symbolic image for the Russian President is an image of a super-hero. It is the authors’ opinion, the image of V.V. Putin as a leader super-hero is determined by the specificity of the Russian political culture within the limits of which a leader is a center of power establishing an authoritarian style of ruling. The authors show the process of the political legitimacy displacement from the institutional level to the personal one by means of mass media. A political leader gains a status of a subject establishing moral, social and value reference points for the whole of the society.

  18. A public health framework to translate risk factors related to political violence and war into multi-level preventive interventions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, J.T.V.M.

    2010-01-01

    Political violence, armed conflicts and human rights violations are produced by a variety of political, economic and socio-cultural factors. Conflicts can be analyzed with an interdisciplinary approach to obtain a global understanding of the relative contribution of risk and protective factors. A

  19. A Political Economy Analysis of Domestic Resource Mobilization in Uganda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, Anne Mette; Ulriksen, Marianne Sandvad

    -building with regard to mobilizing resources for social development. In the paper we analyse how political economy factors affect revenue raising and social spending priorities in Uganda. We establish a theoretical framework based on the political settlement theory, within which we explore instances of revenue bargain......-making. The first two instances relate to the actual mobilization of resources, whereas the third example focuses on bargains over spending priorities within a given revenue base. We find that in Uganda, a low-income country with competing political factions, there are specific challenges to mobilizing resources......This synthesis paper brings together the research findings from four papers prepared by the Uganda team as a part of the UNRISD Politics of Domestic Resource Mobilization for Social Development project, which addresses three broad themes: bargaining and contestation, key relations, and institution...

  20. Planning analysis and political steering with New Public Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sager, Tore Øivin; Sørensen, Claus Hedegaard

    2011-01-01

    of interviews sheds light on the apparent paradox that parliamentarians accept delegation of highway investment decisions despite their profound scepticism to the cost-benefit analyses and impact calculations that are essential to management by objectives and results, which was to give them continued political...... by the Government. The political concentration on strategic steering, the concomitant delegation, and management by objectives and results are central components of New Public Management....

  1. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  2. Prisoners signify: a political discourse analysis of mental illness in a prison control unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloyes, Kristin Gates

    2007-09-01

    Increasingly, US prisoners diagnosed with mental illness are housed in control units, the most restrictive form of confinement in the US prison system. This situation has led to intense debate over the legal, ethical and clinical status of mental illness. This is a semiotic struggle with profound effects, yet most related work treats mental illness as a neutral, individual variable. Few analyses locate mental illness within a larger sociopolitical context. Fewer still focus on discursive practice. None critically analyze the accounts of control unit prisoners, who talk about extreme marginality and risk for victimization. This paper has two aims: (i) to develop a systematic method of analysis that accounts for signification as discourse-in-action; and (ii) to show how prisoners' signification of mental illness articulates agency through and against marginalizing discourse. Political discourse analysis demonstrates how control unit prisoners with psychiatric diagnoses signify mental illness, and articulate safer identifications in the process.

  3. Whose American Government? A Quantitative Analysis of Gender and Authorship in American Politics Texts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassese, Erin C.; Bos, Angela L.; Schneider, Monica C.

    2014-01-01

    American government textbooks signal to students the kinds of topics that are important and, by omission, the kinds of topics that are not important to the discipline of political science. This article examines portrayals of women in introductory American politics textbooks through a quantitative content analysis of 22 widely used texts. We find…

  4. After oil: Analysis of poetic projections into post-petroleum political ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper subjects a forty-three-line poem titled After Oil to critical analysis within the novel intellectual framework of “poetry and politics.” It focuses on the poem's projections into the political economy and environment of the Niger Delta at the inevitable exhaustion of the deposits of fossil fuel that is currently the mainstay of

  5. Political ideology and health in Japan: a disaggregated analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subramanian, S V; Hamano, Tsuyoshi; Perkins, Jessica M; Koyabu, Akio; Fujisawa, Yoshikazu

    2010-09-01

    Recent studies from the USA and Europe suggest an association between an individual's political ideology and their health status, with those claiming to be conservatives reporting better health. The presence of this association is examined in Japan. Individual-level data from the 2000-3, 2005 and 2006 Japan General Social Survey were analysed. The outcomes of interest were self-rated poor health and smoking status. The independent variable of interest was reported political beliefs on a 5-point 'left'-to-'right' scale. Covariates included age, sex, education, income, occupational status and fixed effects for survey periods. Logistic regression models were estimated. There was an inverse association between political ideology (left to right) and self-rated poor health as well as between ideology and smoking status even after adjusting for age, sex, socioeconomic status and fixed effects for survey periods. Compared with those who identified as 'left', the OR for reporting poor health and smoking among those who identified as 'right' was 0.86 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.99) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.91), respectively. Health differences by political ideology have typically been interpreted as reflecting socioeconomic differences. The results from Japan corroborate the previous findings from the USA and Europe that socioeconomic differences do not account for health differences by political ideologies. Political ideology is likely to be a marker of several latent values and attitudes (eg, religiosity, individual responsibility and/or community participation) that might be beneficial for health at the individual level.

  6. SOCIAL ORDERS AND POLITICAL ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL PROCESSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. D. Voskressenski

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Contemporary Political Science deals mainly with three major research fields (typology of social order within countries, existing and emerging regional identity and world order in international system, which are studied separately. This division is a product of the traditional, West-centric theories. The current article building upon achievements of the Russian school of Asian studies and new reality of the West and East proposes framework for complex approach towards political reality with due account of interdependence between global, regional and national levels.

  7. The Occupy Central (Umbrella) movement and mental health distress in the Hong Kong general public: political movements and concerns as potential structural risk factors of population mental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Joseph T F; Kim, Yoona; Wu, Anise M S; Wang, Zixin; Huang, Bishan; Mo, Phoenix K H

    2017-05-01

    Political tension, as expressed by mass movements such as the Occupy Central movement (2014) in Hong Kong, is a potential but understudied structural factor of population mental health. A random population-based telephone survey anonymously interviewed 344 Hong Kong Chinese adults aged 18-65 years during the 2 weeks since the termination date of the 2-month-long Occupy Central movement (15/12/2014). Linear regression models were fit using mental distress (depression, anxiety and negative mood) and self-perceived changes in mood/sleeping quality as dependent variables. Prevalence of participation in the movement was 10.5% (self), 17.7% (family members/relatives), and 34.0% (peers); 8.5% had participated for ≥2 days. Young age, but not participation, was associated with mental distress. In adjusted analysis, three types of responses to the movement (worry about safety, negative emotional responses to media reports, and conflicts with peers about the movement) and emotional responses to local political situations were significantly associated with all/some of the dependent variables related to mental distress. The variable on emotions toward local political situations was correlated with the three responses to the movement; it fully mediated the associations between such responses and mental distress. Many citizens participated in the movement, which was led by youths and might have increased the general public's mental distress. Negative personal responses to the movement and emotions toward political situations were potential risk factors. As the political tension would last and political pessimism is globally found, politics may have become a regular and persistent structural risk factor negatively affecting population mental health.

  8. International Conference on Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

  9. Political Shocks and Abnormal Returns During the Taiwan Crisis: An Event Study Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Steeves, Geoffrey

    2002-01-01

    .... Focusing on the 1996 Taiwan Crisis, by means of event study analysis, this paper attempts to determine the extent to which this political shock affected the Taiwanese, and surrounding Japanese stock markets...

  10. Political and Military Intention Estimation: A Taxonometric Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-11-01

    Ethearecige sees the perceptual blin.Oness of palicyrnakers as a consequence of the personality of those who 4ucceed in political life , i. e. , the...8217Pl), rvi.,-.ed below. Dhoitop(97)tes.lrl Arues UL,.0 -military life Mttacto atthortaranperonaitisand minitary trainiog %nd triaditiotv uli force the... uiversal cognitive foodback proce ses Which create and maintaia spocific erroneous beliofs and perceptions. BA~ie cognitive 2rocpg!sesa. £teinbruater

  11. Political determinants of social expenditures in Greece: an empirical analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Canikalp, Ebru; Unlukaplan, Ilter

    2017-01-01

    A view prominently expounded is that the interaction between the composition and the volume of public expenditures is directly affected by political, institutional, psephological and ideological indicators. A crucial component of public expenditures, social expenditures play an important role in the economy as they directly and indirectly affect the distribution of income and wealth. Social expenditures aim at reallocating income and wealth unequal distribution. These expenditures comprise ca...

  12. Chronic wasting disease risk analysis workshop: An integrative approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillette, Shana; Dein, Joshua; Salman, Mo; Richards, Bryan; Duarte, Paulo

    2004-01-01

    Risk analysis tools have been successfully used to determine the potential hazard associated with disease introductions and have facilitated management decisions designed to limit the potential for disease introduction. Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) poses significant challenges for resource managers due to an incomplete understanding of disease etiology and epidemiology and the complexity of management and political jurisdictions. Tools designed specifically to assess the risk of CWD introduction would be of great value to policy makers in areas where CWD has not been detected.

  13. Political changes and trends in cardiovascular risk factors in the Czech Republic, 1985-92.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobak, M; Skodova, Z; Pisa, Z; Poledne, R; Marmot, M

    1997-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Mortality from cardiovascular diseases is substantially higher in central and eastern Europe than in the west. After the fall of communism, these countries have undergone radical changes in their political, social, and economic environments but little is known about the impact of these changes on health behaviours or risk factors. Data from the Czech Republic, a country whose mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases are among the highest, were analysed in this report. OBJECTIVES: To examine the trends in cardiovascular risk factors in Czech population over the last decade during which a major and sudden change of the political and social system occurred in 1989, and whether the trends differed in relation to age and educational group. DESIGN AND SETTING: Data from three cross sectional surveys conducted in 1985, 1988, and 1992 as a part of the MONICA project were analysed. The surveys examined random samples of men and women aged 25-64 in six Czech districts and measured the following risk factors: smoking, blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), and total and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol. RESULTS: The numbers of subjects (response rate) examined were 2573 (84%) in 1985, 2769 (87%) in 1988, and 2353 (73%) in 1992. Total cholesterol and body mass index increased between 1985 and 1988 and decreased between 1988 and 1992. The prevalence of smoking was declining slightly in men between 1985 and 1992 but remained stable in women. There were only small changes in blood pressure. The decline in cholesterol and BMI in 1988-92 may be related to changes in foods consumption after the price deregulation in 1991. An improvement in risk profile was more pronounced in younger age groups, and the declines in cholesterol and obesity were substantially larger in men and women with higher education. By contrast, there was an increase in smoking in women educated only to primary level. CONCLUSION: Substantial changes in cholesterol, obesity, and women

  14. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  15. Country risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements

  16. Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

    OpenAIRE

    Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

  17. Governing Geoengineering Research: A Political and Technical Vulnerability Analysis of Potential Near-Term Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    political strategy (McCann, Marcot, and Ellis, 2006; Jackman , 2004; Marcot et al., 2001; Cain, 2001). However, using such networks does impose some...2009, pp. 635–638. Jackman , Simon, “Bayesian Analysis for Political Research,” Annual Review of Political Science, Vol. 7, June 2004, pp. 483–505...Nykvist, Cynthia A. de Wit, Terry Hughes , Sander van der Leeuw, Henning Rodhe, Sverker Sörlin, Peter K. Snyder, Robert Costanza, Uno Svedin, Malin

  18. Political priority of global oral health: an analysis of reasons for international neglect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benzian, Habib; Hobdell, Martin; Holmgren, Christopher; Yee, Robert; Monse, Bella; Barnard, Johannes T; van Palenstein Helderman, Wim

    2011-06-01

    Global Oral Health suffers from a lack of political attention, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This paper analyses the reasons for this political neglect through the lens of four areas of political power: the power of the ideas, the power of the issue, the power of the actors, and the power of the political context (using a modified Political Power Framework by Shiffman and Smith. Lancet370 [2007] 1370). The analysis reveals that political priority for global oral health is low, resulting from a set of complex issues deeply rooted in the current global oral health sector, its stakeholders and their remit, the lack of coherence and coalescence; as well as the lack of agreement on the problem, its portrayal and possible solutions. The shortcomings and weaknesses demonstrated in the analysis range from rather basic matters, such as defining the issue in an agreed way, to complex and multi-levelled issues concerning appropriate data collection and agreement on adequate solutions. The political priority of Global Oral Health can only be improved by addressing the underlying reasons that resulted in the wide disconnection between the international health discourse and the small sector of Global Oral Health. We hope that this analysis may serve as a starting point for a long overdue, broad and candid international analysis of political, social, cultural, communication, financial and other factors related to better prioritisation of oral health. Without such an analysis and the resulting concerted action the inequities in Global Oral Health will grow and increasingly impact on health systems, development and, most importantly, human lives. © 2011 FDI World Dental Federation.

  19. POLAND IN AND OUTSIDE THE EURO ZONE – RISKS AND BENEFITS IN THE LIGHT OF NEW POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Dobrowolski

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the benefits and risks of Poland adopting the euro in the light of current political and economic conditions. For this purpose, the following research methods were used: literature research, intuitive method and descriptive statistics. Poland has fulfilled the criteria for nominal convergence for two years, apart from participating in the ERM II mechanism, but the political situation in the country precludes the adoption of measures leading to the euro zone. The future shape of this zone is yet unknown, as its closer integration is planned. Theoretical analysis indicates that the process of globalization makes it difficult for medium-sized, open-economy countries to pursue autonomous monetary and exchange rate policy, so the loss of these instruments after the adoption of the euro should not jeopardize long-term economic growth, even in the case of asymmetric shocks. The market mechanisms of restoring the balance and fiscal policy may then be used. The economy will also benefit from the elimination of transaction costs and exchange rate risks in the euro zone. The analysis shows that it is possible to use the opportunity for faster GDP growth associated with the adoption of the common currency if the right economic policy is pursued. Adopting the euro may also incur costs. For banks it can be the loss of foreign exchange earnings and commissions on FX hedge transactions. For the economy it can be the possibility of speculative bubbles, as a result of excessive consumption growth, caused by possibly too low interest rates. Expected benefits should, however, outweigh any losses.

  20. The Analysis of Slovenian Political Party Programs Regarding Doctors and Health Workers from 1992 to 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksuti, Alem; Rotar Pavlič, Danica; Deželan, Tomaž

    2016-03-01

    The study focuses on the programmatic bases of Slovenian political parties since independence. It presents an analysis of party programs and their preferences regarding doctors and other health workers, as well as the contents most commonly related to them. At the same time, the study also highlights the intensity of the presence of doctors on the policy agenda through time. In the study, 83 program documents of political parties have been analysed. The study includes programmes of political parties that have occurred in parliamentary elections in Slovenia between 1992 and 2014 and have exceeded the parliamentary threshold. The data were analysed using the content analysis method, which is suitable for analysing policy texts. The analysis was performed using ATLAS.ti, the premier software tool for qualitative data analysis. The results showed that doctors and other health workers are an important political topic in non-crisis periods. At that time, the parties in the context of doctors mostly dealt with efficiency and the quality of services in the health system. They often criticize doctors and expose the need for their control. In times of economic crisis, doctors and other health workers are less important in normative commitments of parties. Slovenian political parties and their platforms cannot be distinguished ideologically, but primarily on the principle of access to government. It seems reasonable to conclude that parties do not engage in dialogue with doctors, and perceive the latter aspassive recipients of government decisions-politics.

  1. Economic, Socio-Political and Environmental Risks of Road Development in the Tropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alamgir, Mohammed; Campbell, Mason J; Sloan, Sean; Goosem, Miriam; Clements, Gopalasamy Reuben; Mahmoud, Mahmoud I; Laurance, William F

    2017-10-23

    It is projected that 25 million km of new paved roads will be developed globally by 2050 - enough to encircle the planet more than 600 times. Roughly 90% of new roads will be built in developing nations, frequently in tropical and subtropical regions with high biodiversity and environmental values. Many developing nations are borrowing from international lenders or negotiating access to their natural resources in order to expand their transportation infrastructure. Given the unprecedented pace and extent of these initiatives, it is vital to thoroughly assess the potential consequences of large-scale road and highway projects. In appropriate contexts and locales, new roads can promote sizeable economic and social benefits. If poorly planned or implemented, however, new roads can provoke serious cost overruns, corruption and environmental impacts, while generating sparse economic benefits and intense social and political conflict. Using examples from developing nations, we identify risks that can hinder road projects in wet and dry tropical environments. Such risks, we assert, are often inadequately considered by project proponents, evaluators and the general public, creating a systematic tendency to overestimate project benefits while understating project risks. A more precautionary approach is needed to reduce risks while maximizing benefits of new road projects in the tropics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. The pharmaceuticalization of sexual risk: vaccine development and the new politics of cancer prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamo, Laura; Epstein, Steven

    2014-01-01

    Vaccine development is a core component of pharmaceutical industry activity and a key site for studying pharmaceuticalization processes. In recent decades, two so-called cancer vaccines have entered the U.S. medical marketplace: a vaccine targeting hepatitis B virus (HBV) to prevent liver cancers and a vaccine targeting human papillomavirus (HPV) to prevent cervical and other cancers. These viruses are two of six sexually transmissible infectious agents (STIs) that are causally linked to the development of cancers; collectively they reference an expanding approach to apprehending cancer that focuses attention simultaneously "inward" toward biomolecular processes and "outward" toward risk behaviors, sexual practices, and lifestyles. This paper juxtaposes the cases of HBV and HPV and their vaccine trajectories to analyze how vaccines, like pharmaceuticals more generally, are emblematic of contemporary pharmaceuticalization processes. We argue that individualized risk, in this case sexual risk, is produced and treated by scientific claims of links between STIs and cancers and through pharmaceutical company and biomedical practices. Simultaneous processes of sexualization and pharmaceuticalization mark these cases. Our comparison demonstrates that these processes are not uniform, and that the production of risks, subjects, and bodies depends not only on the specificities of vaccine development but also on the broader political and cultural frames within which sexuality is understood. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Gender violence, poverty and HIV infection risk among persons engaged in the sex industry: cross-national analysis of the political economy of sex markets in 30 European and Central Asian countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeves, A; Steele, S; Stuckler, D; McKee, M; Amato-Gauci, A; Semenza, J C

    2017-11-01

    Persons engaged in the sex industry are at greater risk of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections than the general population. One major factor is exposure to higher levels of risky sexual activity. Expanding condom use is a critical prevention strategy, but this requires negotiation with those buying sex, which takes place in the context of cultural and economic constraints. Impoverished individuals who fear violence are more likely to forego condoms. Here we tested the hypotheses that poverty and fear of violence are two structural drivers of HIV infection risk in the sex industry. Using data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and the World Bank for 30 countries, we evaluated poverty, measured using the average income per day per person in the bottom 40% of the income distribution, and gender violence, measured using homicide rates in women and the proportion of women exposed to violence in the last 12 months and/or since age 16 years. We found that HIV prevalence among those in the sex industry was higher in countries where there were greater female homicide rates (β = 0.86; P = 0.018) and there was some evidence that self-reported exposure to violence was also associated with higher HIV prevalence (β = 1.37; P = 0.043). Conversely, HIV prevalence was lower in countries where average incomes among the poorest were greater (β = -1.05; P = 0.046). Our results are consistent with the theory that reducing poverty and exposure to violence may help reduce HIV infection risk among persons engaged in the sex industry. © 2017 British HIV Association.

  4. The Two Faces of Security in Hybrid Political Orders: A Framework for Analysis and Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin Luckham

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper reframes the security and development debate through fresh theoretical lenses, which view security as highly contested both in the realm of politics and in the realm of ideas. For some analysts security concerns political power, including the use of organised force to establish and maintain social orders and to protect them from external and internal threats. For others it is about how individuals and communities are protected (or protect themselves from violence, abuse of power and other existential risks. We integrate both approaches whilst placing our focus on the deep tensions between them. Combining them is especially apposite in the hybrid political orders of conflict-torn regions in the developing world – where the state and its monopoly of violence are contested and diverse state and non-state security actors coexist, collaborate or compete. We ask what security in these hybrid contexts looks like from below, that is from the perspective of “end users”, be these citizens of states, members of local communities or those who are marginalised and insecure. What are their own vernacular understandings of security, and how do these understandings link to wider conceptions of citizen and of human security? Even when security and insecurity are experienced and decided locally, they are at the same time determined nationally and globally. It is at the interfaces between local agency, state power and global order that the most politically salient and analytically challenging issues tend to arise. To analyse these interfaces we focus on three interconnecting political spaces, each characterised by their own forms of hybridity, in which security is negotiated with end-users: (i “unsecured borderlands” where state authority is suspended or violently challenged by alternative claimants to power or providers of security, including non-state armed groups; (ii “contested Leviathans”, that is state security structures whose

  5. Risk analysis and priority setting for environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1991-01-01

    There is a growing realization that the demand for funding to correct our nation's environmental problems will soon outstrip available resources. In the hazardous waste area alone, the estimated cost of remediating Superfund sites ranges from $32 billion to $80 billion. Numerous other areas of competing for these same financial resources. These include ozone depletion, global warming, the protection of endangered species and wetlands, toxic air pollution, carcinogenic pesticides, and urban smog. In response to this imbalance in the supply and demand for national funds, several political constituencies are calling for the use of risk assessment as a tool in the prioritization of research and budget needs. Comparative risk analysis offers a logical framework in which to organize information about complex environmental problems. Risk analysis allows policy analysts to make resource allocation decisions on the basis of scientific judgement rather than political expediency

  6. Internet politics: A comparative analysis of U.S. and South Korea presidential campaigns

    OpenAIRE

    Hara, Noriko; Jo, Youngmin

    2007-01-01

    To investigate the role of information and computer technologies (ICTs) in political campaigns, this paper discusses three areas of influence in particular (fundraising, civic participation, and e-mobilization), identifying similarities and differences between the U.S. and South Korea. The result of our analysis shows that the impact of the Internet on the two presidential elections differed in all three areas. The Internet provides ordinary citizens with political resources and opportunities...

  7. A public health framework to translate risk factors related to political violence and war into multi-level preventive interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Jong, Joop T V M

    2010-01-01

    Political violence, armed conflicts and human rights violations are produced by a variety of political, economic and socio-cultural factors. Conflicts can be analyzed with an interdisciplinary approach to obtain a global understanding of the relative contribution of risk and protective factors. A public health framework was designed to address these risk factors and protective factors. The framework resulted in a matrix that combined primary, secondary and tertiary interventions with their implementation on the levels of the society-at-large, the community, and the family and individual. Subsequently, the risk and protective factors were translated into multi-sectoral, multi-modal and multi-level preventive interventions involving the economy, governance, diplomacy, the military, human rights, agriculture, health, and education. Then the interventions were slotted in their appropriate place in the matrix. The interventions can be applied in an integrative form by international agencies, governments and non-governmental organizations, and molded to meet the requirements of the historic, political-economic and socio-cultural context. The framework maps the complementary fit among the different actors while engaging themselves in preventive, rehabilitative and reconstructive interventions. The framework shows how the economic, diplomatic, political, criminal justice, human rights, military, health and rural development sectors can collaborate to promote peace or prevent the aggravation or continuation of violence. A deeper understanding of the association between risk and protective factors and the developmental pathways of generic, country-specific and culture-specific factors leading to political violence is needed.

  8. Campylobacter Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    In several countries quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) have been performed for Campylobacter in chicken meat. The models constructed for this purpose provide a good example of the development of QMRA in general and illustrate the diversity of available methods. Despite...... the differences between the models, the most prominent conclusions of the QMRAs are similar. These conclusions for example relate to the large risk of highly contaminated meat products and the insignificance of contamination from Campylobacter positive flocks to negative flocks during slaughter and processing...

  9. Analysis of the corporate political activity of major food industry actors in Fiji.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mialon, Melissa; Swinburn, Boyd; Wate, Jillian; Tukana, Isimeli; Sacks, Gary

    2016-05-10

    Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of mortality in Fiji, a middle-income country in the Pacific. Some food products processed sold and marketed by the food industry are major contributors to the NCD epidemic, and the food industry is widely identified as having strong economic and political power. However, little research has been undertaken on the attempts by the food industry to influence public health-related policies and programs in its favour. The "corporate political activity" (CPA) of the food industry includes six strategies (information and messaging; financial incentives; constituency building; legal strategies; policy substitution; opposition fragmentation and destabilisation). For this study, we aimed to gain a detailed understanding of the CPA strategies and practices of major food industry actors in Fiji, interpreted through a public health lens. We implemented a systematic approach to monitor the CPA of the food industry in Fiji for three months. It consisted of document analysis of relevant publicly available information. In parallel, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 10 stakeholders involved in diet- and/or public health-related issues in Fiji. Both components of the study were thematically analysed. We found evidence that the food industry adopted a diverse range of strategies in an attempt to influence public policy in Fiji, with all six CPA strategies identified. Participants identified that there is a substantial risk that the widespread CPA of the food industry could undermine efforts to address NCDs in Fiji. Despite limited public disclosure of information, such as data related to food industry donations to political parties and lobbying, we were able to identify many CPA practices used by the food industry in Fiji. Greater transparency from the food industry and the government would help strengthen efforts to increase their accountability and support NCD prevention. In other low- and middle-income countries, it

  10. Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardung von Hardung, H.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

  11. Theory and methodology of social, political and economic processes risks determining in different countries of the world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yashina Nadezhda, I.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The study deals with the problems of the theory and methodology of social, political and economic processes risks in different countries with relative indicators of the socio-economic development level, as well as the size and condition of the public debt. Developed by the authors the methodology of determining the risks of social, political and economic processes of public policy around the world revealed close relationship between socio-economic situation of the countries and their public debt. Within the framework of this methodology two groups of factors characterizing the socio-political and economic processes in the country are being developed. After that each exponent and indicator are being processed, using expert procedures. Maximum statutory values for tentatively referenced countries with effective and ineffective government policies are identified. Then standardization (specification and definition of integral (generalized indexes of socio-political and economic processes in the country are taking place. After that the ranking of countries by aggregated standardized ratio is arranged, taking into account the significance of the developed indicators. The final phase of implementation methodology is identifying risks of social, political and economic processes of public policy around the world. This is the ranking of countries by ratio of stability in public policy (stability of economic and socio-political processes in the country. As the result of implementation methodology the following output was received: what really makes a difference is not the amount of the country's debt, but how effectively it manages this debt, whether it has a goal to improve social and economic indicators. Practical testing methodology has proven that studied indicators fully characterize the development of the countries, their political, social and economic situation on the world stage.

  12. Introduction of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campon, G.; Martinez, I.

    2013-01-01

    An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

  13. Hydroproject risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, R.V.; Gulliver, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Traditionally, economic feasibility studies performed for potential hydropower plant sites have included either no uncertainty or at best an ad hoc value associated with estimated benefits. However, formal methods for analyzing uncertainty do exist and have been outlined in the past. An application of these methods is demonstrated through conversion of a hydropower survey program, HYFEAS, to run on LOTUS 1-2-3, using the add-in software package RISK. In this paper the program principals are outlined and a case study of it's application to a hydropower site is presented

  14. Adult Development Theory and Political Analysis: An Integral Account of Social and Political Change in Soviet and Post-Soviet Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elke Fein

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available I propose a reading of social, political and discursive change in Soviet and post-Soviet Russia which is inspired by an integral, above all developmental perspective. In view of explaining Russia’s current political trajectory, I make several arguments. First, I claim that Russian politics are still to a large extent determined by the effects of a threefold crisis of sense-making. Neither the collapse of the Soviet empire, nor the question of how to define democratic government nor the lack of a resilient national identity have so far been resolved and re-appropriated in a transformative manner. Second, I try to show how this affects various aspects and dimensions of Russian politics. Third, I engage in a brief overview of a number of adult development models, asking to what extent and how the characteristics of consciousness development, particular stage characteristics, and the general logics and dynamics of successful and unsuccessful development these models describe can be helpful to the analysis of Russian politics. Also, I discuss their compatibility and parallels with discourse theory and analysis as an increasingly popular methodology in Russian Studies. Of the developmental models reviewed, the theory of political development by Stephen Chilton and the self-protective action logic in Susanne Cook-Greuter’s model of self and identity development are particularly relevant for my purpose. On these grounds, it is argued that since Vladimir Putin’s taking office as Russian president and later prime-minister, politics and (official political discourse have increasingly come to follow self-protective action logics as conceived by Susanne Cook-Greuter. This diagnosis, which could either be understood as a regression or as a realignment of internal and external dimensions of political development, can be explained as a reaction to Russia’s crisis of identity followed by a loss of internal stability and international influence connected

  15. The political economy of trans-Pakistan gas pipeline project: assessing the political and economic risks for India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pandian, S.

    2005-01-01

    There is a growing realisation among Indian policy makers to consider the import of natural gas to address India's growing energy demand. Among many policy options to import natural gas, Indo-Iran overland pipeline option is considered to be effective and economical in addressing India's long-term energy demands. Such a pipeline would have to traverse Pakistani territory thereby necessitating a role for Pakistan in the pipeline project. Though security guarantees have been offered, India refuses to entertain the role of Pakistan in the project for a fear of its energy supply being disrupted in case of a military conflict with Pakistan. This paper argues that gas pipeline project is not only aimed at addressing India's energy concerns but also to further its strategic objectives. This paper contends that India, Iran and Pakistan do not have shared objective to make the overland project a political and commercial reality. India's stakes in the overland pipeline project are high as India's economic interests in the pipeline project are not in congruence with the politico-economic and strategic objectives of Iran and Pakistan. (author)

  16. Tackling inequalities in political socialisation: A systematic analysis of access to and mitigation effects of learning citizenship at school.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoskins, Bryony; Janmaat, Jan Germen; Melis, Gabriella

    2017-11-01

    This article tackles the issue of social inequalities in voting and identifies how and when differences in learning political engagement are influenced by social background in the school environment between the ages of 11-16 in England. Using Latent Growth Curve Modelling and Regression Analysis on the Citizenship Education Longitudinal (CELS) data this research identifies two elements that influence the political socialisation process: access to political learning and effectiveness in the form of learning in reducing inequalities in political engagement. The results show that there is unequal access by social background to learning political engagement through political activities in school and through an open classroom climate for discussion. However, there is equal access by social background to Citizenship Education in schools and this method of learning political engagement is effective at the age of 15-16 in reducing inequalities in political engagement. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Disease prevention policy under Medicare: a historical and political analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schauffler, H H

    1993-01-01

    I review the history and politics of Medicare disease prevention policy and identify factors associated with the success or failure of legislative initiatives to add preventive services benefits to Medicare. Between 1965 and 1990, 453 bills for Medicare preventive services were introduced in the U.S. Congress, but not until 1980, after 350 bills had failed, was the first preventive service added to the Medicare program. Medicare currently pays for only four of the 44 preventive services recommended for the elderly by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (pneumococcal and hepatitis B vaccinations, Pap smears, and mammography). In addition, Congress has funded demonstration programs for the influenza vaccine and comprehensive preventive services. The preventive services added to Medicare reflect the bias of the biomedical model toward screening and immunizations. Counseling services have received the least legislative attention. Factors associated with successful enactment include single-benefit bills, incorporation into budget-deficit reduction legislation, documented evidence of cost-effectiveness, public hearings, sponsorship by chairs of key congressional committees, and persistent congressional leadership. Factors associated with failure include lack of support from Medicare beneficiaries, lack of professional support, impact on total Medicare expenditures, disagreement over or failure to address payment and financing mechanisms, and competing congressional priorities.

  18. POLITICAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF RICE SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sri Nuryanti

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Rice self-sufficiency is an important programme in Indonesia. The programme has four major targets, i.e. increasing production, stabilizing prices and reserve stocks, and minimizing import. For that purpose, the government gave a mandate to a parastatal, namely National Logistic Agency (Bulog in implementing the rice policies. Some studies found that involvement of such a parastatal could lead to government failure in budget allocation. The study aimed to estimate social cost of rice self-sufficiency programme based on the implementation of rice instrument policies by Bulog. The study used the national annual data of 2002–2014 period. The method used was the political preference function model to estimate economic rent and dead-weight loss using rice price elasticity of demand and supply. The result showed that in terms of percentage of food security budget, the average of economic rent reached IDR 6.37 trillion per annum (18.54%, while the average of dead-weight loss amounted at IDR 0.90 trillion per annum (2.34%. It proved that rice self-sufficiency programme along with the involvement of Bulog was economically inefficient. The government should provide better agricultural infrastructure, review governmental procurement prices, and stop rice import policy to remedy market failure.

  19. A FIELD RESEARCH ON THE ANALYSIS OF VOTERS POLITICAL TRUST PERCEPTIONS AS A MARKETING TOOL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet TAN

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The developments in the culture of democracy have led to shaping of activities in politics and political parties from a marketing point of view. Therefore the concept of political marketing has become a new field of study both for academicians and professionals. The aim of this study is to investigate whether demographic and socio-cultural characteristics of voters differed in their perceptions of political trust. The data, which collected through face-to-face surveys conducted with 574 participants, were analyzed statistically using SPSS package program. According to the analysis results, hypotheses which argue that the confidence variable, which is one of the three factors that constitute the trust perceptions of voters, differs according to age groups, education levels, professional groups and political views were accepted. Also hypotheses which argue that ‘doing non-political works’ variable that is another factor, differs according to education levels, income levels, and occupational groups were accepted, while the other hypotheses were rejected. The communication variable did not differ in term of any characteristic of the participants.  Given the limited work on this topic, the findings of the research which were conceptually in accordance with the previous results, show that this study has made considerable contributions to the literature.

  20. SRP meeting: social and political implications of communicating radiation risk, Daresbury, Warrington, 20 June 2001

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davies, Karen

    2001-12-01

    The SRP held a very interesting meeting in June at the Daresbury Laboratory in Warrington on the social and political implications of communicating radiation risk. In today's risk-aware society, effective communication is just as important as the control measures introduced to prevent or restrict exposure. In relation to radiation protection, risk communicators had a hard job because of: Public dread Likelihood of risk intensification Perceived inequitable distribution of risks. The higher the uncertainty, the more wary people were likely to be. Julie cited the International Nuclear Events Scale (INES) as a possible tool for promoting a consistent message across all publics. This was because it aimed to put events into proper perspective and provide a common understanding amongst the nuclear community, the media and the public. Julie summed up by saying that the risk communication was not just any form of communication and the issue of communicating radiation risks involved special consideration. Further research established that the more information given to the local population, the more likely that they would deny that there was a problem. Denial could moderate beliefs or emotional reactions to a situation. This then affected their dose as they were more likely to adopt risky behaviour by eating contaminated food and entering contaminated areas. Avoiding the need to undertake safe behaviour reduced stress levels. Furthermore, people adopted beliefs to suit their situation. For example, some inhabitants of the affected areas became adapted to the radiation and actually felt worse outside the contaminated area. There was strong pressure for the maintenance of a situation which actually prevented appropriate precautions being taken. Peter concluded that there was often confusion over the details of technical information that sometimes might not help to prevent a course of action being taken. However on a positive note the research did find credence and

  1. Simplification and Shift in Cognition of Political Difference: Applying the Geometric Modeling to the Analysis of Semantic Similarity Judgment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Junko; Okada, Kensuke

    2011-01-01

    Perceiving differences by means of spatial analogies is intrinsic to human cognition. Multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) analysis based on Minkowski geometry has been used primarily on data on sensory similarity judgments, leaving judgments on abstractive differences unanalyzed. Indeed, analysts have failed to find appropriate experimental or real-life data in this regard. Our MDS analysis used survey data on political scientists' judgments of the similarities and differences between political positions expressed in terms of distance. Both distance smoothing and majorization techniques were applied to a three-way dataset of similarity judgments provided by at least seven experts on at least five parties' positions on at least seven policies (i.e., originally yielding 245 dimensions) to substantially reduce the risk of local minima. The analysis found two dimensions, which were sufficient for mapping differences, and fit the city-block dimensions better than the Euclidean metric in all datasets obtained from 13 countries. Most city-block dimensions were highly correlated with the simplified criterion (i.e., the left–right ideology) for differences that are actually used in real politics. The isometry of the city-block and dominance metrics in two-dimensional space carries further implications. More specifically, individuals may pay attention to two dimensions (if represented in the city-block metric) or focus on a single dimension (if represented in the dominance metric) when judging differences between the same objects. Switching between metrics may be expected to occur during cognitive processing as frequently as the apparent discontinuities and shifts in human attention that may underlie changing judgments in real situations occur. Consequently, the result has extended strong support for the validity of the geometric models to represent an important social cognition, i.e., the one of political differences, which is deeply rooted in human nature. PMID:21673959

  2. STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

  3. THE POLITICS OF THE NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA TO DEAL WITH CREDITING RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vechiu Camelia

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The market economy refers to the implicit presence of a banking system which could ensure the mobilization of all the monetary resources of the respective economy and their temporary orientation towards the development of efficient economic activities. A significant aspect of the bank performance refers to the measurement of risks with the aim to diminish them. If the bank management is poor and the risks are not taken into consideration, it will be possible that the earning capacity to be reduced and to lead even to the bankruptcy. Due to the fact that the banks are lending, they assume risks which are determined by the doubtful debtor (it appears the insolvency, or by the general economic evolution (which involves interest and exchange rate risks, or by the financial structure of the bank (financing long-term credits from short or sight deposits. The bank risk can be determined by external or internal factors of the bank due to the competitive environment. In the professional literature, the methodology used for the risk management involves several steps: the risk identification and analysis; the risk elimination and control; the risk assessment and assuming; the risk financing by debiting the general or specific reserves or by transfer which means the insurance of the bank company. For those banks operating in Romania, the risks are even more evident due to the hostile environment in which they operate, but also due to the specificity of the Romanian banking system which is still evolving and adapting to the competitive stringencies of the market economy. This paper is trying to follow the risk involvement towards the bank activity taking into account its importance and role in order to ensure the increase of the bank earning capacity.

  4. Making sense of climate change risks and responses at the community level: A cultural-political lens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ainka A. Granderson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available How to better assess, communicate and respond to risks from climate change at the community level have emerged as key questions within climate risk management. Recent research to address these questions centres largely on psychological factors, exploring how cognition and emotion lead to biases in risk assessment. Yet, making sense of climate change and its responses at the community level demands attention to the cultural and political processes that shape how risk is conceived, prioritized and managed. I review the emergent literature on risk perceptions and responses to climate change using a cultural-political lens. This lens highlights how knowledge, meaning and power are produced and negotiated across multiple stakeholders at the community level. It draws attention to the different ways of constructing climate change risks and suggests an array of responses at the community level. It further illustrates how different constructions of risk intersect with agency and power to shape the capacity for response and collective action. What matters are whose constructions of risk, and whose responses, count in decision-making. I argue for greater engagement with the interpretive social sciences in research, practice and policy. The interpretive social sciences offer theories and tools for capturing and problematising the ways of knowing, sense-making and mobilising around risks from climate change. I also highlight the importance of participatory approaches in incorporating the multiplicity of interests at the community level into climate risk management in fair, transparent and culturally appropriate ways.

  5. Analysis On Political Speech Of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono: Common Sense Assumption And Ideology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayit Abdul Karim

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis on political speech of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY, the former president of Indonesia at the Indonesian conference on “Moving towards sustainability: together we must create the future we want”. Ideologies are closely linked to power and language because using language is the commonest form of social behavior, and the form of social behavior where we rely most on ‘common-sense’ assumptions. The objectives of this study are to discuss the common sense assumption and ideology by means of language use in SBY’s political speech which is mainly grounded in Norman Fairclough’s theory of language and power in critical discourse analysis. There are two main problems of analysis, namely; first, what are the common sense assumption and ideology in Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s political speech; and second, how do they relate to each other in the political discourse? The data used in this study was in the form of written text on “moving towards sustainability: together we must create the future we want”. A qualitative descriptive analysis was employed to analyze the common sense assumption and ideology in the written text of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s political speech which was delivered at Riocto entro Convention Center, Rio de Janeiro on June 20, 2012. One dimension of ‘common sense’ is the meaning of words. The results showed that the common sense assumption and ideology conveyed through SBY’s specific words or expressions can significantly explain how political discourse is constructed and affected by the SBY’s rule and position, life experience, and power relations. He used language as a powerful social tool to present his common sense assumption and ideology to convince his audiences and fellow citizens that the future of sustainability has been an important agenda for all people.

  6. 'When you use the term 'long term', how long is that term'. Risk, Exclusion, and the Politics of Knowledge Production in Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste Management Policy Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stanley, Anna

    2006-01-01

    Risk operates within Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste (NFW) management policy making as a heuristic for knowledge production about its effects which reconciles the knowledge of the nuclear industry with the outcomes of the NFW management process. In so doing it marginalizes the present and historical experiences of Aboriginal peoples with the nuclear industry, and removes from view the ways in which they have been implicated in the geography and political economy of the nuclear industry. Risk is a discursive form that protects a particular group's claims about the effects of NFW by providing it a universalizing epistemological structure with which to obscure its connection to context. Further risk discourse provides the nuclear industry with a conceptual vocabulary that deliberately casts all competing knowledge as perceptions, values, or as an object of inquiry. The arguments of Aboriginal peoples about the residual effects of radiation in their lands which hosted nuclear activities, such as uranium mining and disposal, have no representation in how the discourse of risk defines and represents knowledge, and thus no purchase in the policy debate. As a result the challenge they present to the nuclear industry's claims are contained. The arrangements which permit the unloading of the negative effects of nuclear power generation onto Aboriginal peoples are thus reproduced (both materially and conceptually), but not shown, by the policy making process and likely, its outcome. In order to raise critical questions about the democratic abilities of risk, this paper has examined the role of 'risk' in Canadian NFW policy making. I have shown how when the politics of knowledge production within the philosophy of risk is analyzed, and the use and role of the notion of risk are interrogated, difficult questions are posed for the democratic potential of risk. I have suggested, through an analysis of the NWMO's representations of Aboriginal content in their process, that in this

  7. Evolution of Scales and Levels of Islam and Politics Analysis in Post-Soviet Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirzakhanov Dzhabrail Gasanovich

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article studies the basic and complicated evolution of different approaches for investigating Russian post-Soviet Islamic transformation. The authors describe the logic and dynamic of scrutinizing such kind of problems as Islamic consciousness and Muslim institutes, relationships between Islam and ethnic political develoments, forms and manifestations of Islamic fundamentalism. In an effort to identify and assess the signs of post-Soviet Islamic revival, the Russian academic community has obviously been driven to despair. Especially since the tragedy of 9/11/2001 as a source of studying Islam as an evasive object. The main goal of this paper is the methodological innovation which consists in multilayered approach. The authors argue that changes of parameters and structure of post-Soviet policy is reflected in the change of format and unities of analysis. The paper examines the character of academic discussion about different understanding of such political phenomena as politization of Islam as well as bordering Islam in terms of multi-level methodology. This methodology could be able to clarify very complicated Islamic features: socio-territorial organization, communication, and the reproduction channels. It alone will help us explain changing Islam as a social and political enigma. In this paper the authors have correctly identified the phenomenon of Muslim regionalization as a situation under which the Islamic leaders concentrate on religious development at the local level. It is not the authors’ aim to discuss the forms of Islamic existence and its religious-teaching component. The authors favor the wider approach typical of political science in which there is a component of Islamic studies. This analysis has demonstrated that the multi-layered approach to Islam, which identifies its viable segments, has a considerable heuristic potential. This approach helps to understand the inner dynamics of the Islamic development as a complex

  8. The professionalization of political communication? a longitudinal analysis of Dutch election campaign posters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliegenthart, R.

    2012-01-01

    This article provides an analysis of Dutch election posters in the period from 1946 to 2006. Based on the literature on the professionalization of political communication, several hypotheses are formulated regarding changes in textual and visual elements of those posters. These hypotheses focus on

  9. "Political Propaganda": An Analysis of the U.S. Supreme Court Decision in Meese v. Keene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipschultz, Jeremy Harris

    The United States Supreme Court case, Meese v. Keene, in which the justices narrowly defined the meaning of the term "political propaganda," failed to address adequately the complexities of the issue. In this case it is necessary to bring together divergent views about communications in the analysis of the legal problem, including…

  10. Critical Discourse Analysis of Martin Luther King's Speech in Socio-Political Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sipra, Muhammad Aslam; Rashid, Athar

    2013-01-01

    The article presents the Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) of the first part of King Martin Luther's speech "When I Have a Dream" in socio-political context. The study investigates how it lies on the basis of application of Fairclough version of CDA in the first part of the text. Moreover, it explicates the terms like social, cultural…

  11. Političnogeografska analiza Balkana = Political-Geographical analysis of the Balkans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jernej Zupančič

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with contemporary political map of the Balkans, founded on morphological,structural and functional analysis. Characteristically, there are frequent changes of politicalborders in common. The most of nation-states are relatively young, small-sized, ethnicheterogeneous. The space is characteristic by large peripheral areas, but the core areas aresmall. The most of nations have two spatial-political units. All these nation-states are weakand vulnerable, and that is why they represent a high latent crisis potential. On the otherhand, the transport, transit and strategic role of this area is increasing, indeed.

  12. ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

  13. Analysis of the European union’s supranationalism crisis within the political-institutional paradigm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. V. Bashtannyk

    2014-04-01

    So, the same logic of integration policy has caused deferred manifestation of the contradictions that have not been resolved by the development of such a grand united project. It is determined that the investigation of this problem is possible by applying methodological tools of historical institutionalism within political­institutional paradigm of political science. In such kind of analysis it becomes possible to conduct qualitative research and perspective political component of European integration phenomenon’s nature. Economic crisis was the challenge for those unifying international institutions that were considered “post­national polity” and whose institutional framework seemed never shaken. This proves once again that it is impossible to cancel on the willful way the influence of the historical patterns in principle and “path dependence” in particular.

  14. Barack Obama – the new charismatic political actor - a discourse analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ada-Maria Țîrlea

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The American president, Barack Obama, is considered to be one of the most charismatic figures of the 21st century. His speeches are the best asset through which he emphasizes this quality. Although, he hasn’t always been considered to be a successful politician, he made his entrance on the political arena in 2004, when he delivered one of his best speeches. The aim of this paper is to reveal the most important elements of a political discourse that can contribute to creating a good image of a political actor. Using the critical discourse analysis method, we are trying to see if there is a connection between a good, coherent discourse strategy and the charisma of the American leader. The sample will include his 2004 speech, delivered at the Democrats’ Convention, the speech that put him in the eyes of the media as a future American leader.

  15. Problem-Based Teaching in International Management: A Political/Economic Risk Assessment Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Paula S.; White, Marion M.; Zisk, Daniel S.; Cavazos, David E.

    2013-01-01

    This article draws from the current literature to examine problem-based learning (PBL) as a management education tool, and provides an example of how to incorporate PBL into an undergraduate international management course. Also included are an explanation of, and specific guidelines for, a PBL exercise focused on the analysis of "country risk"…

  16. Risk, risk conflicts, sub-politics and social and environmental accounting and accountability in Scottish salmon farming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Georgakopoulos, G.; Thomson, I.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose To offer a theoretical analysis, inspired by contemporary research into risk, of the social and environmental accounting processes observed in an empirical study on Scottish salmon farming. Methodology / Approach This paper used a Grounded Theory approach. Empirical evidence was collected on

  17. Common approach of risks analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

    1996-01-01

    Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

  18. Review of Janet Holmes and Maria Stubbe: Power and Politeness in the Workplace: A Sociolinguistic Analysis of Talk at Work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lønsmann, Dorte

    2015-01-01

    Review of: Janet Holmes and Maria Stubbe: Power and Politeness in the Workplace. A Sociolinguistic Analysis of Talk at Work. Second edition. London: Routledge, 2015, xv + 200 pp.......Review of: Janet Holmes and Maria Stubbe: Power and Politeness in the Workplace. A Sociolinguistic Analysis of Talk at Work. Second edition. London: Routledge, 2015, xv + 200 pp....

  19. Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

  20. Risk management and energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlevaro, F.; Romerio, F.

    1992-01-01

    In five sessions the following topics were dealt with: risk problems, risk analysis and evaluation tools, risks in industrial societies, risks of energy production, technological risks, ethics and political-social consensus. figs., tabs., refs

  1. Knowledge Management and Politics at the Highest Level: An Exploratory Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo TOMÉ

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses Knowledge Management (KM as a political activity, made by the great political leaders of the world. We try to examine if at the macro political level KM is made, and how. The research is interesting because given that we live in a Knowledge Society, in the Information Era, it is more or less obvious that the political leaders should also do KM. However we don’t know of any previous study on KM and world leaders and this paper wants to be a first step to fill that gap. As a methodology we use literature review: given this one is a first preliminary study we use data we found online and in databases like EBSCO. We divide the analysis in two main parts: theoretical ideas, and application. In the theoretical part we aim at distinguishing KM as made by managers from KM made by politicians. The second part is itself divided in two segments: the past and the present times; in the second segment we illustrate our ideas with the example of President Barack Obama. We observe, rather surprisingly, how much it has been over-looked by scholars; KM always was and nowadays is pervasive in the activity of the world political leaders. Furthermore, the importance of KM made by world political leaders is so great that it should prompt the making of detailed studies in order to improve the world governance. The study has the limitation of relying on documents, insights and texts, and not on interviews. It should be followed by studies of a more qualitative and participative nature. We believe it would be very interesting to make such studies and that they would help improving the democracies in the 21st century and beyond.

  2. Government, politics and health policy: A quantitative analysis of 30 European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackenbach, Johan P; McKee, Martin

    2015-10-01

    Public health policies are often dependent on political decision-making, but little is known of the impact of different forms of government on countries' health policies. In this exploratory study we studied the association between a wide range of process and outcome indicators of health policy and four groups of political factors (levels of democracy, e.g. voice and accountability; political representation, e.g. voter turnout; distribution of power, e.g. constraints on the executive; and quality of government, e.g. absence of corruption) in contemporary Europe. Data on 15 aspects of government and 18 indicators of health policy as well as on potential confounders were extracted from harmonized international data sources, covering 30 European countries and the years 1990-2010. In a first step, multivariate regression analysis was used to relate cumulative measures of government to indicators of health policy, and in a second step panel regression with country fixed effects was used to relate changes in selected measures of government to changes in indicators of health policy. In multivariate regression analyses, measures of quality of democracy and quality of government had many positive associations with process and outcome indicators of health policy, while measures of distribution of power and political representation had few and inconsistent associations. Associations for quality of democracy were robust against more extensive control for confounding variables, including tests in panel regressions with country fixed effects, but associations for quality of government were not. In this period in Europe, the predominant political influence on health policy has been the rise of levels of democracy in countries in the Central & Eastern part of the region. In contrast to other areas of public policy, health policy does not appear to be strongly influenced by institutional features of democracy determining the distribution of power, nor by aspects of political

  3. Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aral, M. M

    2010-01-01

    ... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

  4. A Developmental Behavioral Analysis of Dual Motives’ Role in Political Economies of Corruption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Nora Ross

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a developmental meta-analysis of behaviors that contribute to political economies of corruption, deploying bioneurological dual motive and behavioral development theories. Together, these systems of analysis enable a developmental perspective to illustrate and analyze a progression of dual motives’ variations as humans and their conditions change. The progression of examples indicates that there are multiple evolutions of political economies that vary in their complexity, with different behavioral features at each level. Dual motive theory helps in identifying and understanding the complex linkages and layers of socio-political and economic behaviors as they become more complex. Increasingly complex horizontal and vertical stacks of social networks, like lattice-works of dual motives, enable individuals and groups to develop and maintain sturdy yet adaptable social systems of patronage, brokerage, and clientelism. These so-often informally structured relationships underlie corruption-like transactions long before, and long after, they are regarded as the enduring institution of corruption. Three hypotheses under gird the development of that thesis. The first is that dual motive theory facilitates meta-analyses of social networks’ often hidden layers of complexity. A second hypothesis is that analyses using dual motive theory can explicate more complexity when the theory is integrated with developmental behavioral theory. The third hypothesis is that analyses made possible by that integration offer substantive contributions to understanding socio-political-economic behaviors, including multiple political economies of corruption. Three strategies are employed to develop the paper’s thesis. First, the concepts of social ties, networks, reciprocity and dual motive theory are introduced to set the context. second, a behavioral task measurement theory is introduced: the model of hierarchical complexity. Scoped for this paper to

  5. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  6. Political Dimensions of College Impact on Civil-libertarianism and the Integration of Political Perspective: A Longitudinal Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finney, Henry C.

    1974-01-01

    Using longitudinal data, the extent of increased civil-libertarianism among a panel of Berkeley undergraduates is assessed, along with the position of such attitudes in the progressive integration of students' political viewpoints in a more liberal and involved direction over two years. (Author)

  7. Online Social Systems, Social Actions, and Politics: A Narrative Analysis of the Role of Social Media in Revolutionary Political Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maghrabi, Rozan Omar

    2017-01-01

    One of the demonstrators during the 2011 Egyptian revolution tweeted "We use Facebook to schedule the protests, Twitter to coordinate, and YouTube to tell the world," thus acknowledging and establishing the fundamental role of social media in the political unrest and revolution against the regime in Egypt. Information Systems (IS) have…

  8. The Representation of Women in Publication: An Analysis of "Political Communication" and the "International Journal of Press/Politics"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Heather K.; Bucy, Erik P.

    2010-01-01

    Scholarly publication in peer-reviewed journals is widely regarded as the road to scholarly success. However, in a diversity of fields such as sociology, economics, and political science, it has been shown that the rate of publication is much lower for women than for men. The question of whether a systematic relationship exists between gender and…

  9. Political symbols and political transitions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herrero de Miñón, Miguel

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Politics, Law and Psychology are fields that come together in the symbolic. This text takes evidence from those three areas to develop an analysis of political symbols and political transitions. The development of the analysis goes through three stages. The first succinctly describes the concept of transition and its meaning. The second closely examines the notion of the symbol, in terms of its definition, to explain aspects that allow us to understand it, characterise it and make its functions clear. Finally, from the author's experience as a witness and as an actor, I suggest three ways of understanding symbols in the processes of political transition: as symbols of change, as symbols of acknowledgment, and as symbols of support.

  10. A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jones, Maggie E. C.; Ørregård Nielsen, Morten; Popiel, Michael Ksawery

    We use a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model to examine the relationship between Canadian political support and macroeconomic conditions. This model is well suited for the analysis because it allows multiple fractional time series and admits simple asymptotic inference for the m......We use a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model to examine the relationship between Canadian political support and macroeconomic conditions. This model is well suited for the analysis because it allows multiple fractional time series and admits simple asymptotic inference...... for the model parameters and tests of the hypotheses of interest. In the long-run equilibrium, we find that support for the Progressive Conservative Party was higher during periods of high interest rates and low unemployment, while support for the Liberal Party was higher during periods of low interest rates...

  11. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

  12. The parliamentary political agenda: a tool for policy analysis of diabetes priorities in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agudelo-Suárez, Andrés A; Ruiz-Cantero, María Teresa; González-Zapata, Laura I; Restrepo-Medrano, Juan Carlos; Ortiz-Barreda, Gaby M

    2012-01-01

    To analyze the political agenda on diabetes in Spain under democracy by considering the frequency and content of initiatives in the Spanish parliament. A systematic search of parliamentary interventions (1979-2010) reported on the Spanish Congress of Deputies' web page was carried out using the key word "diabetes". A descriptive study of the frequency of interventions was performed, followed by a content analysis, according to the priorities of the World Health Organization (WHO), the International Diabetes Federation and the Spanish Diabetes Federation. Other study variables were the year of presentation, legislature, type of initiative and whether a political decision was taken (yes/no). There were 59 interventions: 22% were related to the first international initiatives and 44.1% took place in the last two legislatures in response to the WHO's program Diabetes Action Now. A total of 32.2% of the initiatives addressed educational and social programs, while 23.7% addressed access to resources and health services. Most initiatives (74.6%) consisted of parliamentary questions to the government, which only required a response. Of the 15 initiatives requiring a decision to be taken, only eight were approved. Spanish legislators aim to comply with international standards. Nevertheless, political decision-making has sometimes been slow. Importantly, most of the political responsibilities related to health have been transferred to the autonomous regions. The updated National Diabetes Strategy in Spain will need to strengthen public health policies according to established international priorities. Monitoring parliamentary interventions has proven to be a valid tool for evaluating patterns of political debate and decisions on diabetes. Copyright © 2011 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  13. Movements and Meanings: Towards an Integrated Approach to Political Discourse Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Дуглас Марк Понтон

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This chapter has two principal focuses; firstly backwards in time, across some of the high points in the development of political discourse analysis, in order to assess the current state of the field. It also has a future focus, as it attempts to integrate insights from some emerging fields, such as Multimodality, with more consolidated approaches. It has been argued, in many accounts (e.g. Fairclough and Fairclough 2012, that persuasion is the most pervasive function of all political discourse, and most authors agree that the processes involved encompass both textual and non-textual features. An influential early attempt, for example, to describe some non-verbal aspects of persuasive rhetoric was Atkinson (1984, who identified features like the speaker’s voice quality, intonation, posture, body language, eye movements, and so on, as well as some other non-linguistic ‘tricks’. As influential as this work was, however, these features have tended to be omitted from many subsequent accounts of persuasion in political rhetoric, which have concentrated on features of argumentation operating at a strictly textual level.The overall aim of this work is to suggest pathways towards the ambitious goal of developing a usable, integrated model for analysing political discourse. Instead of analysing a single feature such as metaphor (Charteris-Black 2006, parliamentary insults (Ilie 2004, evaluative language or humour (Swain 1999, 2002, the model attempts to combine descriptions of textual and non-verbal/multimodal features of political discourse, in order to provide a practical tool for analytical purposes, and a coherent account of their possible pragmatic effects.

  14. What is a risk. [Quantitative risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoen, G [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.)

    1979-02-01

    The following article is a revised version of a lecture given by the author during the VDE meeting 'Technical Expert Activities' in Brunswick. First of all, the concept of 'risk' is discussed which leads to a probability scale which then permits a definition of the 'justifiable risk' as the boundary between 'hazard' and 'safety'. The boundary is quantified indirectly from laws, regulations, instructions, etc. to the 'Technological rules' for special fields of application by minimum requirement data. These viewpoints described in detail are not only of substantial significance for the creation of safety regulations but also for their application and consequently for jurisdiction.

  15. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  16. An Analysis of Donald Trump's Political Personality Traits and Policy Orientations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yin Jiwu; Zheng Jianjun; Li Hongzhou

    2017-01-01

    As a political leader,US President Trump's personality traits affect his policy orientations and current US foreign policy.The authors analyze Trump's personality in several categories-uninhibited and capricious,dynamic and capable,profit-orientated and self-centered,competitive and persistent,positive and extraverted.The traits of breaking traditions,skill at strategic deception and negotiation,action-motivated implementation,intuitive decision-making,pursuit of respect and interest exchange,and vengefulness will shape his policy and behavioral orientations.Initial study shows Trump to be a political leader with positive personality traits and double-sided dimensions.The analysis offers insight toward understanding the new US executive and his policy direction.

  17. The role of finance in economic development : Benefits, risks, and politics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beck, T.H.L.; Müller, D.C.

    2012-01-01

    This article explores the role of the financial sector for economic growth, the causes and consequences of financial fragility, and the politics behind financial deepening and fragility. In doing so, it identifies the critical role of the financial sector within capitalist economies, a role with

  18. Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-06-01

    The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

  19. RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. PIRVUTOIU

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.

  20. Risk analysis; Analisis de riesgos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baron, J H; Nunez McLeod, J; Rivera, S S [Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza (Argentina). Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora (CEDIAC)

    1997-07-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field. [Spanish] Este libro contiene una seleccion de trabajos de investigacion realizados dentro del Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de la Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora en el area del analisis de riesgos, con una orientacion hacia el estudio de incertidumbres y sensibilidad, confiabilidad de software, modelacion de accidentes severos, etc. Este volumen recoge un material de indudable importancia e interes para todos aquellos investigadores y profesionales que desean incursionar en este campo del analisis de riesgos como herramienta para la solucion de problemas frecuentemente encontrados en la ingenieria y las ciencias aplicadas, asi como para los academicos que desean mantenerse al dia, conociendo los nuevos desarrollos y tecnicas que constantemente aparecen en su area.

  1. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

  2. A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

  3. THE ENTRANCE OF VENEZUELA IN MERCOSUR: ANALYSIS OF THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Schmuziger Goldzweig

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims to study the perception of the political agents of the Congress through the analysis of their votes on the context of the acceptance of Venezuela into MERCOSUR, relating it to the potential gains coming from its admission. The relevance of the topic is justified by the importance that the bloc would acquire accepting a new member, considering the expansion of the internal consumer market and the increase of oil reserves of the bloc. Therefore, the intention is to clarify the political situation favorable to the integration and, taking the Brazilian perception in consideration, establish the relationship between economic gains that would come from the acceptance of Venezuela as a state member and the political discourse regarding this subject in the National Congress. Through the votes of deputies and senators we mapped the variables that act as important factors in the decision-making process of lawmakers. It was found that the party influence, though strong, suffers marginal effects of variables such as the influence of regional and local interests when it comes to voting on foreign policy.

  4. Celebrating Risk: The Politics of Self-Branding, Transgression & Resistance in Public Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BLAKE POLAND

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Persons 'branded' as dangerous to the public's health often try to hide their status (as smokers, as HIV positive, etc. Yet, a small but growing subgroup has re-appropriated stigma symbols and voluntarily branded themselves as 'marked' individuals, rebellious, transgressive and refusing to be shamed by their status. In this article we examine voluntary branding as acts of resistance, paying particular attention to bodily practices that disrupt dominant aesthetic and moral/political sensibilities. We draw on our research and observations in the realms of smoking and bareback sex to illustrate and address broader issues of branding the self, aesthetics and the politics of resistance, surveillance, and transgression. Drawing on the work of Goffman, Bourdieu and Foucault, we examine the interpenetration of class, physical and social capital, and unequal social relations. While these works are often used to celebrate resistance, we argue, following Fiske, that it should not be romanticized as inherently liberating.

  5. Nuclear energy: public controversies and the analysis of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sills, D.L.

    1984-01-01

    Energy is a social concept, the product of social, economic, and political processes that define certain raw materials as resources and thus convert them into usable energy. Like all social concepts, energy is controversial. Out of a wide range of controversies, three are selected for analysis here: (1) the relationship of nuclear power systems to nuclear weapons proliferation; (2) the risks of terrorism and sabotage associated with the operation of nuclear power facilities, including threats to civil liberties; and (3) the problems associated with the long-term management of radioactive wastes. The final section of the paper describes various modes of analyzing risks and the perception of risks. It is concluded that it may take many decades to learn whether nuclear energy is as natural a source of electrical power as wells are of drinking water, or whether nuclear energy is a horror that mankind in the 1980s or 1990s took a hard look at and then backed away. (author)

  6. A Political, Economic, Social, Technology, Legal and Environmental (PESTLE Approach for Risk Identification of the Tidal Industry in the United Kingdom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athanasios Kolios

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of renewable and especially tidal energy through a political, economic, social, technology, legal and environmental (PESTLE analysis approach and by reviewing the most up to date relevant literature. The study focuses on the United Kingdom given the favourable environmental resources for such technologies; the number of different design concepts that are currently under development as well as the research funding that has been invested over the last few years. Findings of the analysis identify the risks and multiple stakeholders involved at all stages of the tidal energy projects development from the conceptualization of the design, right through to decommissioning. Many of the stakeholders present benefits to the tidal developers through funding, incentives and knowledge sharing, but at the same time they also present potential risks to the future of projects. This is mostly down to different approaches of the most important aspect of tidal energy that needs to be considered, making it hard for technologists and developers to equally address all requirements. From this research it can be concluded that several of these risks can be mitigated early on providing that particular stakeholders are involved at the correct stage of a project.

  7. Linking Political Systems and War Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harste, Gorm

    2009-01-01

    Decisive parts of the Western political system have demonstrated a seemingly surprising misinterpretation of military might. As Madelaine Albright has suggested, the mighty perceived themselves as "almighty". Political power seems to have invested in instrumental coercive power relations and found...... military coercion to be the appropriate mean. Using the system theory and the theory of systemic risks displayed by the German sociologist Niklas Luhmann the article demonstrates how military systems due to their own autonomy and autopoiesis do not fit into the idea of political government....... The Clausewitzian ideal of a political system that could continue its power games by means of war was moderated by Clausewitz' own analysis of "friction". How can a political system be so blind towards the possibilities of another system? What are the risks of systemic blind spots? The argument of the paper...

  8. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  9. Political ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strohm, H.

    1979-01-01

    Using facts and examples, this didactically structures textbook gives an insight into the extent and consequences of the damage to the environment, with the subjects - fundamentals of ecology; - population and food problems; - the energy problem; - economic growth; scarcity of resources, recycling; - ground, water, and air pollution, - city and traffic problems; - work protection and medical care; - political alternatives and 'soft technologies'. The analysis of the political and economic reasons is combined with social and technical alternatives from which demands to be made and measures to be taken can be derived for individuals, citizens' interest groups, political groups and trade unions. Teaching models intend to help teachers to work on specific problems of ecology. (orig.) [de

  10. WHY THE SUDDEN CHANGE OF THE POLITICAL REGIME IS DETERMINING RISK IN ECONOMY AND SOCIETY?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Lucian MEHEDINTI

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this article the authors aim to gather an in-depth understanding of the evolution of manking throughout the history and its political regimes, and in the same time are analizing and determining the components of the social function that exercised a great influence on the stability and dynamics of the production and consumption, pointing out that any social organization that wants to remain rational should have as a primary objective the happiness of the people, that so called,“general happiness”, that could only be achieved through education, culture, raising people's moral and intellectual knowledge. Since any political system does not seek the general good, but the one of some persons or a specific group of people, there is only very little communion between them and the people or is entirely missing and for these reasons their reign won’t be long, because the people are always wanting a political change. This "social problem" occurred because of some significant social movements, socialist doctrines whose effects still persist in present times. The efforts of the profound thinkers and mankind throughout the history, with all the positive developments did not materialize in achieving a society in which wealth is equitably distributed, where the contributions of the people in getting them is equally shared that could satisfy the requirements and the needs of the majority members of the society. In all the transformations and society changes or the political regime of the state, the human being represented the base, with its unlimited evolution and thinking, and all of these were achieved in time and were given by a certain social environment. The human being can not be separated from its social environment. He is born to live in the society, but the freedom can not be unlimited of course. The history has shown that all the hasty attempts suffered the same fate and the only sustainable progress made by the people were those who came out

  11. Sentiment analysis of political communication: combining a dictionary approach with crowdcoding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haselmayer, Martin; Jenny, Marcelo

    2017-01-01

    Sentiment is important in studies of news values, public opinion, negative campaigning or political polarization and an explosive expansion of digital textual data and fast progress in automated text analysis provide vast opportunities for innovative social science research. Unfortunately, tools currently available for automated sentiment analysis are mostly restricted to English texts and require considerable contextual adaption to produce valid results. We present a procedure for collecting fine-grained sentiment scores through crowdcoding to build a negative sentiment dictionary in a language and for a domain of choice. The dictionary enables the analysis of large text corpora that resource-intensive hand-coding struggles to cope with. We calculate the tonality of sentences from dictionary words and we validate these estimates with results from manual coding. The results show that the crowdbased dictionary provides efficient and valid measurement of sentiment. Empirical examples illustrate its use by analyzing the tonality of party statements and media reports.

  12. From politics on documentary to documentary politics: notes for a perspective of analysis. Da poltica no documentrio s polticas do documentrio: notas para uma perspectiva

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Csar Geraldo Guimares

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Facing the upgrowing interest about the political dimension of documentary cinema, this article compares two ways of apprehension and points out some theoretical and methodological choices there implied. We emphasize the prevalence of representation as an analytical operator in the studies about the theme and practice the proposition of an alternative regard, which is based on the concept of distribution of the sensible as a central reference and it takes into account the ways of production or invention - themselves of the documentary politics. By the end, we present, for heuristic purposes, a brief analysis of Juzo (Maria Augusta Ramos, 2007, attempting to investigate the singular possibilities of political invention in the movie.Diante do crescente interesse em torno da dimenso poltica do cinema documentrio, o artigo compara dois modos principais de apreenso do fenmeno e aponta algumas escolhas tericas e metodolgicas a implicadas. Destacamos o predomnio da representao como operador analtico nos estudos sobre o tema e ensaiamos a proposio de uma visada alternativa, que tem como referncia central o conceito de partilha do sensvel e leva em conta os modos prprios de produo ou de inveno poltica do documentrio. Ao final, apresentamos, para fins heursticos, uma breve anlise de Juzo (Maria Augusta Ramos, 2007, buscando investigar as possibilidades singulares de inveno poltica sustentadas pelo filme.

  13. Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

  14. The Specific of Political Fundraising

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Евгений Викторович Смолянинов

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The following study is dedicated to the process of political fundraising as a subject of political science. Through the article one can find the definition of political fundraising and American political scientists' approaches to the analysis of this process. Comparative analysis of political fundraising in the U.S.A. and Russian Federation demonstrates that its' transparency has an important impact on public's control of lobby groups and other shadow political entities.

  15. Politics, Security, Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wæver, Ole

    2011-01-01

    theory is found to ‘act politically’ through three structural features that systematically shape the political effects of using the theory. The article further discusses – on the basis of the preceding articles in the special issue – three emerging debates around securitization theory: ethics......This article outlines three ways of analysing the ‘politics of securitization’, emphasizing an often-overlooked form of politics practised through theory design. The structure and nature of a theory can have systematic political implications. Analysis of this ‘politics of securitization......’ is distinct from both the study of political practices of securitization and explorations of competing concepts of politics among security theories. It means tracking what kinds of analysis the theory can produce and whether such analysis systematically impacts real-life political struggles. Securitization...

  16. Street children and political violence: a socio-demographic analysis of street children in Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veale, Angela; Donà, Giorgia

    2003-03-01

    The aims were: (1) to examine the profile of African street children and to assess the link between street children in Africa and political violence; (2) to undertake a systematic examination of causal factors of street children in postgenocide Rwanda; and (3) to situate this analysis in the context of the socio-cultural and political impact of the genocide on Rwandan communities. Observational mapping examined the profile and activities of Rwandan street children. Structured interviews were carried out with 290 children in four regional towns to obtain information on socio-demographic, familial, educational background, causal factors surrounding street life involvement, psychological well-being, and relationship to the street. Focus group discussions and key informant interviews examined the relationship between street children and the broader Rwandan society. Street children in Rwanda were predominantly adolescent boys, almost half of whom were homeless (42%), with a high proportion of orphaned children or children who had lost at least one parent. Two variables predicted homelessness: child's guardian and reason for being in street. Qualitative accounts of children conveyed the impact of death of family members, repatriation, imprisonment of parents, and poverty on their lives. The analysis highlighted the need for community based support for children in alternative guardianship care and for policies to support the reintegration of male youths in postconflict welfare strategies as prevention strategies for street migration.

  17. Politics and scientific expertise: Scientists, risk perception, and nuclear waste policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barke, R.P.; Jenkins-Smith, H.C.

    1993-01-01

    To study the homogeneity and influences on scientists' perspectives of environmental risks, the authors have examined similarities and differences in risk perceptions, particularly regarding nuclear wastes, and policy preferences among 1011 scientists and engineers. Significant differences (p<0.05) were found in the patterns of beliefs among scientists from different fields of research. In contrast to physicists, chemists, and engineers, life scientists tend to: (a) perceive the greatest risks from nuclear energy and nuclear waste management; (b) perceive higher levels of overall environmental risk; (c) strongly oppose imposing risks on unconsenting individuals; and (d) prefer stronger requirements for environmental management. On some issues related to priorities among public problems and calls for government action, there are significant variations among life scientists or physical scientists. It was also found that-independently of field of research-perceptions of risk and its correlates are significantly associated with the type of institution in which the scientist is employed. Scientists in universities or state and local governments tend to see the risks of nuclear energy and wastes as greater than scientists who work as business consultants, for federal organizations, or for private research laboratories. Significant differences also are found in priority given to environmental risks, the perceived proximity of environmental disaster, willingness to impose risks on an unconsenting population, and the necessity of accepting risks and sacrifices. 33 refs., 3 figs., 9 tabs

  18. An Analysis of Malaysian Political Communication and Its Role in Electoral Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saabar Suhaimee Saahar

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to discuss political communication in Malaysia especially after the 12th General Elections (GE12. The purpose of this study is to analyse the political efficacy or sense making process which involve analysing the techniques and creative execution that had been used by political parties and its effects on Malaysian voters. The results of GE 12 had fashioned a political tsunami that influenced many important aspects in the Malaysian political landscape, be it national and economic policies, social unity or campaign strategies. Therefore, the main focus of this paper is to discuss the elements and importance of political communication research in Malaysian political communication campaign by focusing on the aspects of creative execution, political information efficacy and sense making process and its impact on the choice of communication tools amongst Malaysian voters.

  19. Political Analysis through the Prince System. Learning Packages in the Policy Sciences, PS-23.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coplin, William D.; O'Leary, Michael K.

    This package introduces college students to the elements of the Prince System, a widely used system for making political forecasts and developing political strategies. Designed to be completed in two to three weeks, the two exercises enable students to (1) identify political issues that the Prince System can help them understand, (2) determine the…

  20. Politics and Poetics of the Event: from silencing to a risk of voicing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alda Regina Tognini Romaguera

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Our interest is to think of politics and poetics of images and words in writings traversed by the experiences (workshops, soirées, exhibitions... that have taken place in the extension and outreach project Reading and Creation Workshops with Words and Images developed by Fabulografias - ALB Center for Reading, throughout the years 2013 and 2014. How to extract the significance from words and photographs and make them vibrate, make them multiple? Launch the event in gatherings, thoughts and poetics and photographic compositions. One of the challenges of a plane of collective experimentation around the minority becoming, winds that blow in the meetings of the Collective Group Fabulografias. Among other things: doing away with the discursive orders and making life resonate from within a tense silence that drifts nearby. Compose an education that differs, blowing from within the potencies of art and the philosophy of Gilles Deleuze.

  1. Should I be worried? Citizens’ experiences and the risk politics of cell site deployment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Graaff, M.B.

    2016-01-01

    How do we deal with the risks of new technology? This research takes the mobile phone cell sites as case. The exponential growth of the wireless telecommunications network, materialized in the construction of cell sites, is raising concerns about its health risks for decades. Where do citizens’

  2. AN ANALYSIS OF OFF RECORD STRATEGIES REFLECTING POLITENESS IMPLICATURE IN “OPRAH WINFREY SHOW”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahma Yanti

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This thesis discusses strategies off the record that describes implicatures modesty in a conversation. Off record strategy is one of the five strategies. This strategy is discussed for the use of the language used in the forms of direct. The object of research are strategies off the record that describes implicatures politeness in a famous talk show in America, namely, "Oprah Winfrey Show". The data were taken using methods refer to refer techniques involved free conversation, where the author was not involved in the dialogue that occurs because the data is taken from the TV show, recording technique with the aid of a recorded tape. Furthermore, the authors use the technique CAAT by way of transcribing talk show back in the form transcription ortrografis. This analysis uses methods equivalent pragmatic look at the role of external factors of language, especially the factor of interlocutors on selection strategies used off record. The results showed that the context of the situation and the violations of the maxim of conversation will influence the choice of strategies used off record. However there are some cases when this option do not follow the rules. This is because of other factors that come into play in a conbersation such as an intonation. mplicatures appear generally in the form of affirmation that is used in polite. In one sentence found two or more strategy off record selected speakers.

  3. Reregulation of the Swedish pharmacy sector-A qualitative content analysis of the political rationale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisell, Kristin; Winblad, Ulrika; Sporrong, Sofia Kälvemark

    2015-05-01

    In 2009, a reregulation of the Swedish pharmacy sector took place, and a fundamental change in ownership and structure followed. The reregulation provides an opportunity to reveal the politicians' views on pharmacies. The aim of this study was to explore and analyze the political arguments for the reregulation of the Swedish pharmacy sector in 2009. The method used was a qualitative content analysis of written political documents regarding the reregulation. The primary rationales for the reregulation were better availability, efficiency, price pressure, and safe usage of medicines. During the preparatory work, the rationales of diversity on the market and entrepreneurship were added, while the original rationales of efficiency, price pressure, and better usage of medicines were abandoned. The reform can be seen as a typical New Public Management reform influenced by the notion that private actors are better equipped to perform public activities. The results point to that the reform was done almost solely in order to introduce private ownership in the pharmacy sector, and was not initiated in order to solve any general problems, or to enhance patient outcomes of medicine use. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. The psychology of intelligence analysis: drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellers, Barbara; Stone, Eric; Atanasov, Pavel; Rohrbaugh, Nick; Metz, S Emlen; Ungar, Lyle; Bishop, Michael M; Horowitz, Michael; Merkle, Ed; Tetlock, Philip

    2015-03-01

    This article extends psychological methods and concepts into a domain that is as profoundly consequential as it is poorly understood: intelligence analysis. We report findings from a geopolitical forecasting tournament that assessed the accuracy of more than 150,000 forecasts of 743 participants on 199 events occurring over 2 years. Participants were above average in intelligence and political knowledge relative to the general population. Individual differences in performance emerged, and forecasting skills were surprisingly consistent over time. Key predictors were (a) dispositional variables of cognitive ability, political knowledge, and open-mindedness; (b) situational variables of training in probabilistic reasoning and participation in collaborative teams that shared information and discussed rationales (Mellers, Ungar, et al., 2014); and (c) behavioral variables of deliberation time and frequency of belief updating. We developed a profile of the best forecasters; they were better at inductive reasoning, pattern detection, cognitive flexibility, and open-mindedness. They had greater understanding of geopolitics, training in probabilistic reasoning, and opportunities to succeed in cognitively enriched team environments. Last but not least, they viewed forecasting as a skill that required deliberate practice, sustained effort, and constant monitoring of current affairs. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  5. Summary Authoritarialism as Political Regime: Analysis of Historical and Empirical Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. D. Grossman

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is devoted to the problems of existence of authoritarian regimes. The ambiguity of the resulting data determines the importance of the considered research. Authoritarianism is quite complicated socio-political phenomenon. For this reason, there are a lot of typologies and special features of authoritarianism as a political regime. Authoritarianism is not only a political regime, but it is also a set of social and political characteristics. Some countries, where the authoritarian tendencies dominate, are economically developed, and they have a competitive economy, but other countries, which are steeped in a reactionary authoritarian, do not develop properly. From the materials of this article it should be concluded that the political regime in Russia is principally authoritarian, or to be specific it is liberal authoritarian regime. This political regime has been established for the whole history of our country, and it is supported by paternalistic political culture and special mindset our nation.

  6. Orphans and political instability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breuning, Marijke; Ishiyama, John

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates the security implications of growing orphan populations, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Little has been written about the security implications of this especially vulnerable group of children. Are growing orphan populations associated with increases in political instability as has been suggested? Using data from several sources, we employ regression analysis to test whether Sub-Saharan African countries with larger proportions of orphans and those with increasing orphan populations experience higher rates of political instability. We find that the increase in the orphan population is related to an increasing incidence of civil conflict, but do not find a similar relationship for the proportion of orphans. In addition, we find that the causes of orphanhood matter. We conclude that increases in orphan populations (rather than simple proportions) are destabilizing. We suggest possible avenues for mediating the security risks posed by growing orphan populations.

  7. Risk analysis and safety rationale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, G.

    1989-01-01

    Decision making with respect to safety is becoming more and more complex. The risk involved must be taken into account together with numerous other factors such as the benefits, the uncertainties and the public perception. Can the decision maker be aided by some kind of system, general rules of thumb, or broader perspective on similar decisions? This question has been addressed in a joint Nordic project relating to nuclear power. Modern techniques for risk assessment and management have been studied, and parallels drawn to such areas as offshore safety and management of toxic chemicals in the environment. The report summarises the finding of 5 major technical reports which have been published in the NORD-series. The topics includes developments, uncertainties and limitations in probabilistic safety assessments, negligible risks, risk-cost trade-offs, optimisation of nuclear safety and radiation protection, and the role of risks in the decision making process. (author) 84 refs

  8. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

  9. Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

    2005-01-01

    The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

  10. PRA and Risk Informed Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernsen, Sidney A.; Simonen, Fredric A.; Balkey, Kenneth R.

    2006-01-01

    The Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has introduced a risk based approach into Section XI that covers Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The risk based approach requires application of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Because no industry consensus standard existed for PRAs, ASME has developed a standard to evaluate the quality level of an available PRA needed to support a given risk based application. The paper describes the PRA standard, Section XI application of PRAs, and plans for broader applications of PRAs to other ASME nuclear codes and standards. The paper addresses several specific topics of interest to Section XI. Important consideration are special methods (surrogate components) used to overcome the lack of PRA treatments of passive components in PRAs. The approach allows calculations of conditional core damage probabilities both for component failures that cause initiating events and failures in standby systems that decrease the availability of these systems. The paper relates the explicit risk based methods of the new Section XI code cases to the implicit consideration of risk used in the development of Section XI. Other topics include the needed interactions of ISI engineers, plant operating staff, PRA specialists, and members of expert panels that review the risk based programs

  11. Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

    2017-08-01

    With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Sector-based political analysis of energy transition: Green shift in the forest policy regime in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sergent, Arnaud

    2014-01-01

    This article examines energy transition political process from a sector-based approach, through the analysis of recent shift in the French forest policy regime. We demonstrate that, since 2007, energy transition policies have led to a harvesting turn within the French forest policy framework, meaning that priority is given to wood mobilisation, mainly for biomass uses. In addition, our findings suggest that the political authority wielded by the state over forest policy has shifted from forest administrative services to energy agencies and local authorities. Finally, we show that, although implementation of the harvesting turn is a cause of sectoral and inter-sectoral tensions, energy transition challenge also contributes to a process of (re)institutionalisation of mediation relationships among forestry stakeholders and wood-based industries representatives. The article concludes by arguing that sectors should retain relevant institutional frameworks for actors when choosing political arrangements required for implementing energy transition policy. - Highlights: • Implementing energy transition policy potentially challenges sector-based politics. • We propose a policy regime framework and socio-political investigations. • We analyse the political impact of energy transition policy on French forest sector. • Shifts occur in sectoral policy framework, authority, and mediation relationships

  13. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or...

  14. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

  15. Reliability and validity of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

  16. The Effect of Political Stability on Public Education Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nir, Adam E.; Kafle, Bhojraj Sharma

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to provide a preliminary analysis to evaluate the implications of political stability for educational quality, evident in the survival rate measure. Design/methodology/approach: Secondary analyses were conducted for data drawn from the Political Risk Service Report, the World Bank Report, the United Nations…

  17. Politics of risk-taking: Welfare state reform in advanced democracies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vis, B.

    2010-01-01

    How much and in which direction have the welfare states among the Western democracies changed over the past decades? Moreover, under which conditions have governments enacted these changes? Based on insights from prospect theory, a psychological theory of choice under risk, Vis demonstrates ably

  18. Chaos theory in politics

    CERN Document Server

    Erçetin, Şefika; Tekin, Ali

    2014-01-01

    The present work investigates global politics and political implications of social science and management with the aid of the latest complexity and chaos theories. Until now, deterministic chaos and nonlinear analysis have not been a focal point in this area of research. This book remedies this deficiency by utilizing these methods in the analysis of the subject matter. The authors provide the reader a detailed analysis on politics and its associated applications with the help of chaos theory, in a single edited volume.

  19. Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.

    1988-01-01

    Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)

  20. Political myths and totalitarianism: an anthropological analysis of their causal interrelationship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svilicić, Niksa; Maldini, Pero

    2014-06-01

    This paper discusses the key political, anthropological and socio-cultural functions of political myths in the appearance and functioning of totalitarian regimes. A special emphasis is put on structural elements of the myth (mythemes) and the mythic content (narratives) in the processes of artificial construction of a new society (community) based on the myth-inspired ideological postulates. The paper argues that the establishment of totalitarianism marked a certain anthropological devolution. This devolution, in turn, proceeds through the deconstruction of civil society as an organic social sphere and the artificial construction of a new political community based on ideological postulates and political myths. In support of this assertion, it is first shown how the mythical narratives--transformed into political concepts and programs--were the basis of (re)interpretation of the world, society and individual, and essentially determined the nature and functioning of the totalitarian regimes. Then, the specific political myths are analyzed and compared, as well as their content and origin, and particularly their dual function. It in turn is analyzed in the framework of the classical society-community dichotomy, where the (civil) society is founded socio-politically on the social contract, and the (political) community socio-anthropologically on political myth. In a situation of identity and legitimacy crisis, anomie and the weakening of social cohesion--the characteristic conditions of the great economic and political crisis of the early twentieth century that enabled the emergence of totalitarianism--society as a contracting community does not work. A strong need for meaning (at the individual and societal level) affects the citizens' susceptibility to (political) concepts of (re)constitution of (political) community with which they can identify. Right there, totalitarian movements use the cohesive power of the political myth that replaces the rationally based

  1. Labor and Love: Wives' Employment and Divorce Risk in its Socio-Political Context

    OpenAIRE

    L. P. Cooke; J. Erola; M. Evertsson; M. Gahler; J. Harkonen; B. Hewitt; M. Jalovaara; M.-Y. Kan; T. H. Lyngstad; L. Mencarini; J.-F. Mignot; D. Mortelmans; A.-R. Poortman; C. Schmitt; H. Trappe

    2013-01-01

    We theorize how social policy affects marital stability vis-à-vis macro and micro effects of wives' employment on divorce risk in 11 Western countries. Correlations among 1990s aggregate data on marriage, divorce, and wives' employment rates, along with attitudinal and social policy information, seem to support specialization hypotheses that divorce rates are higher where more wives are employed and where policies support that employment. This is an ecological fallacy, however, because of the...

  2. Collision Risk Analysis for HSC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urban, Jesper; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    1999-01-01

    High Speed Craft (HSC) have a risk profile, which is distinctly different from conventional ferries. Due to different hull building material, structural layout, compartmentation and operation, both frequency and consequences of collision and grounding accidents must be expected to be different fr...

  3. The double burden of neoliberalism? Noncommunicable disease policies and the global political economy of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasgow, Sara; Schrecker, Ted

    2016-05-01

    The growing prevalence of NCDs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is now recognized as one of the major global health policy issues of the early 21st century. Current official approaches reflect ambivalence about how health policy should approach the social determinants of health identified by the WHO Commission on the topic that released its report in 2008, and in particular the role of macro-scale economic and social processes. Authoritative framing of options for NCD prevention in advance of the September, 2011 UN high-level meeting on NCDs arguably relied on a selective reading of the scientific (including social scientific) evidence, and foregrounded a limited number of risk factors defined in terms of individual behavior: tobacco use, unhealthy diet, alcohol (ab)use and physical inactivity. The effect was to reproduce at a transnational level the individualization of responsibility for health that characterizes most health promotion initiatives in high-income countries, ignoring both the limited control that many people have over their exposure to these risk factors and the contribution of macro-scale processes like trade liberalization and the marketing activities of transnational corporations to the global burden of NCDs. An alternative perspective focuses on "the inequitable distribution of power, money, and resources" described by the WHO Commission, and the ways in which policies that address those inequities can avoid unintentional incorporation of neoliberal constructions of risk and responsibility. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  4. Environmental policies, politics, and community risk perception: case study of community contamination in Casper, Wyoming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tajik, Mansoureh; Gottlieb, Karen; Lowndes, Nita; Stewart, Gloria

    2007-01-01

    We identify and explain factors that affected a community's perception of risk due to extensive industrial contamination and people's distrust of government agencies regarding the environmental investigations. Intrinsic bounded case study methodology was used to conduct research about extensive environmental contaminations due to activities of an oil refinery in North Casper, Wyoming, and the citizens' response. Data were collected from multiple sources that included public testimonies, observations, public hearings and meetings minutes, newspaper articles, archived records obtained from federal and state environmental and health agencies, as well as industry records obtained through Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests. The overarching theme that emerged was lack of trust due to several critical events and factors such as no response or delay in response time to community concerns, lack of transparency, perceived cover up, vague and fragmented communication by government and state officials, perception of pro-industry stance, and perceived unfair treatment. People's perception of environmental risks and their willingness to accept official explanations and outcomes of environmental investigations are strongly affected by their direct experiences with government agencies and the evidence of influence the powerful industries exert over relevant investigations. The government cannot successfully address public and community concerns about environmental health impacts of contaminations and in turn the public perception of risk unless it adopts and implements policies, procedures, and protocols that are clear, timely, transparent, and free from industry influence.

  5. Structural Analysis of Lexical Bundles in University Lectures of Politics and Chemistry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadi Kashiha

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Referred to as extended collocations, lexical bundles are considered as a main factor in building fluency in academic discourse; helping to shape meaning and coherence in a text or speech. For decades, lexical bundles have attracted considerable amount of attention in corpus-based research in English for Academic Purposes (EAP. While, the focus of the most of the studies on lexical bundles was to explore the use of these multi-word expressions in academic written registers such as research articles, academic spoken registers such as university lectures have not received that amount of attention from the scholars. In this vein, there is still an open question of how they are structurally different across disciplines. With these concerns in mind, this study aimed to explore how lexical bundles are used structurally in a 50291 words corpus of 8 university lectures across two disciplines: chemistry and politics. To this aim, the most frequent four-word bundles in the corpus were classified according to their grammatical types to see the possible disciplinary variations in their frequency of use as well as the structure involved in their use. Results of the analysis revealed that noun phrase and prepositional phrase fragments were the most common structures in the lectures of the two disciplines, accounting for more than half of the bundles in politics. University lecturers appear to apply a variety of structures in the use of lexical bundles often peculiar to the discipline in order to convey their disciplinary messages.  This would lead to the need to emphasize the instruction of the most common structures in that discipline in a way for the lectures to be as comprehensive as possible for the intended audiences.

  6. Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.

    1989-01-01

    A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis

  7. Ritual encounters of the queer kind: a political analysis of jewish lesbian ritual innovation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brettschneider, Marla

    2003-01-01

    SUMMARY Jewish feminist and queer engagement in Jewish life and Judaism are transforming the practices and foundational orientations of traditional modes. Jewish feminist, queer ritual innovation in particular is inspired by an array of secular and radical critical theories as much as it is by the historic concrete experiences of a diversity of Jews in different Jewish communities. It is important to hold all of us who are involved in religious ritual innovation responsible to the knowledges we have developed and learned in critical theory or we risk, even with the best of intentions and creativity, re-inscribing some of the very problems of traditional ontological norms that we might have originally sought to disrupt and subvert. This article looks specifically at examples of new "coming out" rituals for Jewish queers explored over time in the Jewish Queer Think Tank: honoring them as well as offering tools from secular critical theory to assist our work in keeping them accountable to our aspirations to both love and fundamentally transform Jewishness. Here I redefine the function of religious ritual itself in political terms as an identity-producing performance. As such I utilize social constructionist queer theories (i.e., Shane Phelan and Judith Butler), anarchists (i.e., Emma Goldman), and those involved in radical theatre (i.e., Augusto Boal) to articulate the revolutionary potential of ritual innovation.

  8. Panama disease in banana and neoliberal governance: towards a political ecology of risk

    OpenAIRE

    Cruz, de la, Jaye

    2017-01-01

    The emergence of Panama disease Tropical Race 4 (Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. cubense) or TR4 – a fungal disease in banana that is considered by horticulture experts as not only one of the most destructive diseases in the world (Ploetz 1994) but one with no on-hand socio-cultural or chemical method to control it satisfactorily (Ploetz 2015) – has generated conversations, dialogue, inquiry and at times controversy, on how this risk is to be managed. The onslaught of Tropical Race 1 (TR1) in the 19...

  9. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  10. POLITENESS PRINCIPLE ANALYSIS IN CARTOON MOVIE ENTITLED STAND BY ME DORAEMON

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eko Mulyono

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the use of politeness principle in cartoon movie entitled “Stand By Me Doraemon”. It aims at giving a description on the use of politeness principle in this movie so that this is the source of data as well. The data are collected by note taking technique and then analyzed descriptively. After analyzing the data, the researcher finds the use of politeness principle in the movie script. They are utterances of the use of politeness principle covering the kinds of maxim in politeness principle. The utterances covey the use of tact maxim, generosity maxim, approbation maxim, modesty maxim, agreement maxim, and sympathy maxim. Then, it focused also in politeness scale such as formality scale, hesitancy scale, and equality scale. The finding result showed that there are 25 politeness principle found in cartoon movie “Stand By Me Doraemon”. 1 tact maxim, 3 generosity maxim, 6 approbation maxim, 1 modesty maxim, 2 agreement maxim, 3 sympathy maxim, 2 formality scale, 4 hesitancy scale, and 3 equality scale. Approbation maxim is the maxim of the most numerous in the movie. This is because the characters in this film seek to avoid conflict and create an environment that is comfortable in communication.   Key words: politeness principle, cartoon movie, utterance, maxim, scale.

  11. Politeness Strategies in Healthcare Communication at "Difficult Times": A Pragmatic Analysis of the "Manga" Discourse in "Nurse Aoi"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuoka, Rieko; Poole, Gregory

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the ways in which healthcare professionals interact with patients' family members, and/or colleagues. The data are from healthcare discourses at difficult times found in the manga series entitled Nurse AOI. As the first step, we selected several communication scenes for analysis in terms of politeness strategies. From these…

  12. Has Political Science Ignored Religion?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettell, Steven

    2012-01-01

    A common complaint from political scientists involved in the study of religion is that religious issues have been largely overlooked by political science. Through a content analysis of leading political science and sociology journals from 2000 to 2010, this article considers the extent of this claim. The results show that political science…

  13. Politics, citizenship and disobedience in the city of crisis: a critical analysis of contemporary housing struggles in Madrid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janoschka, Michael

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The city region of Madrid can be considered as an exponent of the striking contradictions associated with the contemporary market-oriented production of housing. Given the increasing economic constraints of many ­middle- and working-class households because of the crisis, property values have been declining for practically seven years now, and tens of thousands of households have been evicted from their homes because they were unable to pay back their mortgages. Simultaneously, since the outbreak of the indignados movement in May 2011, a contestation of the structural forces ruling the real estate sector has been taking place, and questions about the right of housing became a prominent part of the public debate in an increasingly politicised society. Alongside the background of literature about the post-political city and subversive citizenship, this article pursues three key aims: It analyses the consequences of the persistent crisis with a special focus on the residential housing market in Madrid. Secondly, an analysis of the new social and political dynamics that have been emerging during the crisis is developed. Finally, it pinpoints to the way how the emergence of new actors within contemporary housing struggles has been shifting the social and political discourses in this political arena. Such an approach brings together discussions from the field of Political Science with the new geographies of contested crisis urbanism that relate to debates about the social construction of the city, citizenship and disobedience.

  14. GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

    1991-01-01

    The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

  15. Race, gender, and sexual orientation in hate crime victimization: identity politics or identity risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunbar, Edward

    2006-06-01

    This study examined the impact of hate crimes upon gay and lesbian victims, reviewing 1538 hate crimes committed in Los Angeles County. Differences between sexual orientation and other hate crime categories were considered for offense severity, reportage to law enforcement, and victim impact. The type of offense varied between crimes classified for sexual orientation (n=551) and other bias-motivated crimes (n=987). Assault, sexual assault, sexual harassment, and stalking were predictive of sexual orientation hate crimes. Sexual orientation bias crimes evidenced greater severity of violence to the person and impact upon victim level of functioning. More violent forms of aggression were predictive of gay and lesbian victim's underreportage to law enforcement. For sexual orientation offenses, victim gender and race/ethnicity differences were predictive of the base rates of crime reportage as well. These findings are considered in terms of a group-risk hypothesis, encountered by multiple outgroup persons, that influences help-seeking behavior and ingroup identity.

  16. Political, social and technical risks in the last stages of disease eradication campaigns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitty, Christopher J M

    2015-09-01

    Eradication of a disease is one of the greatest gifts any generation can give to subsequent ones, but most attempts have failed. The biggest challenges occur in the final stages of eradication and elimination campaigns. These include falling public support as a disease becomes less common; the emergence of groups who do not support eradication; spiralling costs; and the evolution of drug, vaccine or insecticide resistance. Mass campaigns become less effective as the disease fragments and modelling becomes less reliable. Optimism bias is the biggest risk to any eradication campaign and the long endgame must be planned for from the beginning. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. The politics of risk in the Philippines: comparing state and NGO perceptions of disaster management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bankoff, Greg; Hilhorst, Dorothea

    2009-10-01

    It is now generally appreciated that what constitutes vulnerability to one person is not necessarily perceived as such by the next. Different actors 'see' disasters as different types of events and as a result they prepare for, manage and record them in very different ways. This paper explores what different perceptions of vulnerability mean in terms of the understanding and practices of two significant sets of actors and stakeholders involved in disaster preparedness and management in the Philippines: the state and NGOs. Approaches to disaster are not just a function of people's perceptions of disaster risk but also of their understanding of the prevailing social order and social relations. Despite a shared vocabulary-which increasingly presents disasters as processes rather than events, takes a proactive rather than a reactive approach, and favours the inclusion of stakeholders rather than solely relying on technocratic management-different realities continue to make for different responses.

  18. Dealing with phenomenological uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theofanous, T.G.

    1994-01-01

    The Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) is summarized and developed further towards a formal definition. The key ideas behind the methodology and these more formal aspects are also presented and discussed

  19. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    .... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...

  20. Risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koelzer, W.

    1983-01-01

    The German risk analysis program for nuclear power plants aiming at the man and the environment is presented. An accident consequence model to calculate the radiological impact and the potential health effects is described. (E.G.) [pt

  1. 'When you use the term 'long term', how long is that term'. Risk, Exclusion, and the Politics of Knowledge Production in Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste Management Policy Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stanley, Anna [Univ. of Guelph (Canada). Dept. of Geography

    2006-09-15

    Risk operates within Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste (NFW) management policy making as a heuristic for knowledge production about its effects which reconciles the knowledge of the nuclear industry with the outcomes of the NFW management process. In so doing it marginalizes the present and historical experiences of Aboriginal peoples with the nuclear industry, and removes from view the ways in which they have been implicated in the geography and political economy of the nuclear industry. Risk is a discursive form that protects a particular group's claims about the effects of NFW by providing it a universalizing epistemological structure with which to obscure its connection to context. Further risk discourse provides the nuclear industry with a conceptual vocabulary that deliberately casts all competing knowledge as perceptions, values, or as an object of inquiry. The arguments of Aboriginal peoples about the residual effects of radiation in their lands which hosted nuclear activities, such as uranium mining and disposal, have no representation in how the discourse of risk defines and represents knowledge, and thus no purchase in the policy debate. As a result the challenge they present to the nuclear industry's claims are contained. The arrangements which permit the unloading of the negative effects of nuclear power generation onto Aboriginal peoples are thus reproduced (both materially and conceptually), but not shown, by the policy making process and likely, its outcome. In order to raise critical questions about the democratic abilities of risk, this paper has examined the role of 'risk' in Canadian NFW policy making. I have shown how when the politics of knowledge production within the philosophy of risk is analyzed, and the use and role of the notion of risk are interrogated, difficult questions are posed for the democratic potential of risk. I have suggested, through an analysis of the NWMO's representations of Aboriginal content in their

  2. Powerlessness of older people in Hong Kong: a political economy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kam, Ping-kwong

    2003-01-01

    Gerontologists agree that old age can be associated with an increase in powerlessness both in the personal domain and in the social and political fields. This paper is an attempt to understand the concept of powerlessness in old age within a political economy theoretical framework. The paper argues that the powerlessness of older people is not biologically determined. Rather, it is socially constructed. It has its roots in the social, economic, and political structure of society. For this reason, the paper argues that (a) the capitalist economic system discriminates against and marginalizes older people in the labor market. The current unfavorable economic climate will make the economic situation of older people worse. (b) The residual welfare system does not counteract the unfavorable impact of the economic system. Rather, it deprives older people of the necessary financial resources and social service supports that would enable them to lead independent and dignified lives. (c) The authoritarian political system creates adverse conditions that make it very difficult for older people to participate in the decision-making process on issues that affect their lives, as well as on broader political issues that affect the whole of society. It is the interplay among these economic, social, and political forces in Hong Kong that creates the political economy of powerlessness in old age and prevents older people from using their powers to master and control their lives.

  3. Understanding Political Influence in Modern-Era Conflict:A Qualitative Historical Analysis of Hassan Nasrallah’s Speeches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reem Abu-Lughod

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Understanding Political Influence in Modern-Era Conflict: A Qualitative Historical Analysis of Hassan Nasrallah’s Speeches 'Abstract' 'This research examines and closely analyzes speeches delivered by Hezbollah’s secretary general and spokesman, Hassan Nasrallah, from a content analysis perspective. We reveal that several significant political phenomena that have occurred in Lebanon were impacted by the intensity of speeches delivered by Nasrallah; these three events being the 2006 War, the Doha Agreement, and the 2008 prisoner exchange. Data has been collected from transcribed speeches and analyzed using a qualitative historical analysis. Furthermore, we use latent analysis to assess Nasrallah’s underlying implications of his speeches and identify the themes he uses to influence his audience.'

  4. Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmalz, F.

    1991-01-01

    In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

  5. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-10-01

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  6. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

  7. Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

  8. Corporate political activity of the dairy industry in France: an analysis of publicly available information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mialon, Melissa; Mialon, Jonathan

    2017-09-01

    In the present study, we used a structured approach based on publicly available information to identify the corporate political activity (CPA) strategies of three major actors in the dairy industry in France. We collected publicly available information from the industry, government and other sources over a 6-month period, from March to August 2015. Data collection and analysis were informed by an existing framework for classifying the CPA of the food industry. Setting/Subjects Our study included three major actors in the dairy industry in France: Danone, Lactalis and the Centre National Interprofessionnel de l'Economie Laitière (CNIEL), a trade association. During the period of data collection, the dairy industry employed CPA practices on numerous occasions by using three strategies: the 'information and messaging', the 'constituency building' and the 'policy substitution' strategies. The most common practice was the shaping of evidence in ways that suited the industry. The industry also sought involvement in the community, establishing relationships with public health professionals, academics and the government. Our study shows that the dairy industry used several CPA practices, even during periods when there was no specific policy debate on the role of dairy products in dietary guidelines. The information provided here could inform public health advocates and policy makers and help them ensure that commercial interests of industry do not impede public health policies and programmes.

  9. Focus Studies of Geographically Connected Countries: Analysis of Regionally Oriented Studies in Political Science Publications 1996-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreja Petković

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This article studies the focus studies of geographically connected and geographically not connected countries, i.e. regional and comparative regional studies. In the first part of the article, a description of the role and development of this type of studies as a subdiscipline of comparative politics is provided. In the second part, I present the results of quantitative analysis of the content of articles published in the academic journals published or co-published by the Faculty of Political Science, University of Zagreb. The objects of analysis are regional studies of South-East Europe published in the journals. The main goal of this article is to determine which countries in their regional surroundings are researched the most by Croatian political scientists (and other authors who publish such articles in Croatian or English language in those journals, and which countries Croatia is most often compared to. This research has shown that, with regard to studies of the region, Croatian political scientists mostly focus on the countries of the former Yugoslavia.

  10. Sociological investigation Students of Universities' Social-Political Trust in Iran: relying on secondary analysis of some national surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayed Mahdi Etemadifard

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Social system based on mutual trust among members continues to exist. Social trust in modem era is more important than earlier periods. Subject of current report is focused on the trust of Iranian students in different aspects. Main question in this investigation is about social-political trust of these students (based on trust in Islamic Republic of Iran at the past and present. This matter explored by secondary analysis of data, Relying on secondary analysis of some national surveys. Based on data and consequences of other researches we are going to illustrate the objective aspects of student's trust in current decades. The main sources for data collection at this stage include: All the public surveys conducted in the past four decades, the general data about students and their related assays. Trust students were evaluated on the following dimensions: trust in trade unions and various groups, trust in the clergy, directors of public trust and confidence in judges. Furthermore, the level of political engagement and participation in elections, satisfaction with economic situation, political situation and level of satisfaction with confidence in radio and television news. Reduction of public trust leads to reduced maximum student trust especially in the social and political dimensions.

  11. An Analysis of Euphemisms Found in the Political Issues News of the Jakarta Post Online Newspaper

    OpenAIRE

    AVRIANTI, NUKE ELOK

    2014-01-01

    Keyword : Euphemisms, Type of Euphemisms, Motives of using Euphemisms The political issues which become the highlighted issues in media Indonesia in recent days is the reason of the writer in conducting this study. The writer wants to examine how the euphemistic expression is used in the newspaper when they publish their article. The writer analyzed the political issues news written in The Jakarta Post online newspaper since the development of technology is running very fast so the ...

  12. Deconstructing Kimilsungism: A Political and Ideological Analysis of the North Korean Regime

    OpenAIRE

    Sangiovanni, John James

    2009-01-01

    This thesis argues that the North Korean model of government is a unique model that is influenced, to varying degrees, by extreme leftist and rightist doctrines, including Marxism-Leninism, Stalinism, Maoism, fascism, and Nazism; and shares at least some similarities with all these established models. Rather than being a mere political model, the North Korean model is a political religion that incorporates traits of each of the above-noted models with Korean mythology, Confucianism, extreme ...

  13. WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-05-01

    The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

  14. Analysis of the Russian political tolerance in society-government relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Korolevska

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The high culture of tolerance accelerates political socialization, improves the qualities of a citizen, a sense of ownership of public affairs, instilling respect for democratic values. Relevance of the work is determined by processes that occur in today’s society and that lead not only to confusion but to destruction of public relations. The article reviews the state of political tolerance in the system of relations society – authorities in Russia. Based on opinion polls statistical analyzes to determine trends in contemporary ensure political tolerance is conducted. Due to correlation between support for Putin and the perception of the political situation in the country as well is determined existence. Fixes sustainable public discontent actual situation in the country, however, people do not use the opportunities for political activism. Almost two thirds of Russians believe that the interests of the government and society in do not match. The low percentage of respondents believe that the political course of the country’s leadership in the interests of ordinary people. There is a steady trend to an agreement among the Russian population to concentrate power in his hands. There is a slight increase of the population of those who are ready to connect to solve their problems in life forms of protest activity.

  15. Political participation of older adults in Scandinavia - the civic voluntarism model revisited? A multi-level analysis of three types of political participatio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikael Nygård

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This article examines political participation among older adults in Österbotten, Finland, and Västerbotten, Sweden. Two specific hypotheses are tested. First, we anticipate that older adults are loyal voters but less avid in engaging in politics between elections. Second, we expect individuallevel resources to explain why older people participate in politics. The article offers two contributions to the literature on political participation of older adults. First, it corroborates earlier findings by showing that older adults indeed have a higher inclination to vote than to engage in political activities between elections, but it also shows that the latter engagement is more diversified than one could expect. Second, although the findings largely support the resource model, they suggest that we need to consider also other factors such as the overall attitude towards older people.

  16. Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

  17. Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Philippe

    1989-12-01

    This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

  18. Risk analysis of alternative energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazmer, D.R.

    1982-01-01

    The author explores two points raised by Miller Spangler in a January 1981 issue: public perception of risks involving nuclear power plants relative to those of conventional plants and criteria for evaluating the way risk analyses are made. On the first point, he concludes that translating public attitudes into the experts' language of probability and risk could provide better information and understanding of both the attitudes and the risks. Viewing risk analysis methodologies as filters which help to test historical change, he suggests that the lack of information favors a lay jury approach for energy decisions. Spangler responds that Congress is an example of lay decision making, but that a lay jury, given public disinterest and polarization, would probably not improve social justice on the nuclear issue. 5 references, 4 figures

  19. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt, Ralph; Bostelmann, Jonas; Cornet, Yves; Heipke, Christian; Philippe, Christian; Poncelet, Nadia; de Rosa, Diego; Vandeloise, Yannick

    2012-01-01

    The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk assoc...

  20. Impact Analysis for Risks in Informatics Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Baicu, Floarea; Baches, Maria Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of these informatics systems, probability of exploiting the weak points subject to financial losses of a company, respectively impact of a security accident on the company. Herewit...

  1. Adult Development Theory and Political Analysis: An Integral Account of Social and Political Change in Soviet and Post-Soviet Russia

    OpenAIRE

    Elke Fein

    2010-01-01

    I propose a reading of social, political and discursive change in Soviet and post-Soviet Russia which is inspired by an integral, above all developmental perspective. In view of explaining Russia’s current political trajectory, I make several arguments. First, I claim that Russian politics are still to a large extent determined by the effects of a threefold crisis of sense-making. Neither the collapse of the Soviet empire, nor the question of how to define democratic government nor the lack o...

  2. Territory and place : Potential for analysis of political subjects' constitution: The case of an unemployed movement in Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernanda Torres

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at introducing the debate about the concepts of "space", "territory", "territoriality", "place" and their possible responsibility in the analysis of political subjects, especially in connection with an Argentine unemployment movement: the CTD Aníbal Verón. First of all, we deal with the debate about whether the space can be thought of as a political constituting dimensión or whether it is enough for it to be considered a conflict manifestation, limit demarcation and access control; the space built being understood as territory. Secondly, we also carry out an analysis of the relation between subjects and space, their appropriation and the meaning they give it, involving identity relations which are often analyzed through the category of place. Attention will be paid to two of the various practices which construct places [in terms of identity] in the territories built/appropriated by the organization: the neighborhood and the picket

  3. Political innovations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Eva

    2017-01-01

    are mainly interested in assessing and promoting innovations in public service delivery, but have paid little or no attention to the need for innovations in polity, politics and policy. This article develops a research agenda for studying innovations in political institutions, in the political process...... and in policy outputs. It proposes a number of research themes related to political innovations that call for scholarly attention, and identifies push and pull factors influencing the likelihood that these themes will be addressed in future research....

  4. Sensemaking and politics in MNCs: A comparative analysis of vocabularies within the global manufacturing discourse in one industrial sector

    OpenAIRE

    Geppert, M

    2003-01-01

    This article compares sensemaking processes in multinational corporations (MNCs) situated in the same industrial sector. Our comparative analysis of three MNCs and their subsidiaries in Germany and the United Kingdom aims to shed light on the contextual dimension (institutions, culture, and politics) of the sensemaking process. First, I discuss ideologies related to the discourse about global restructuring of manufacturing. Second, I compare similarities and differences in vocabularies of the...

  5. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  6. Moral politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rapp, Carolin; Traunmüller, Richard; Freitag, Markus

    2014-01-01

    This article combines the research strands of moral politics and political behavior by focusing on the effect of individual and contextual religiosity on individual vote decisions in popular initiatives and public referenda concerning morally charged issues. We rely on a total of 13 surveys with 1...... American research on moral politics, direct democracies, and the public role of religion....

  7. Office Politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storm, Paula; Kelly, Robert; deVries, Susann

    2008-01-01

    People and organizations are inherently political. Library workplace environments have zones of tension and dynamics just like any corporation, often leading to the formation of political camps. These different cliques influence productivity and work-related issues and, at worst, give meetings the feel of the Camp David negotiations. Politics are…

  8. Workshop in political institutions - institutional analysis and global climate change: Design principles for robust international regimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGinnis, M.

    1992-01-01

    Scientific evidence suggests that human activities have a significant effect on the world's climate. Political pressures are growing to establish political institutions at the global level that would help manage the social and economic consequences of climate change. Disagreements remain about the magnitude of these effects, as well as the regional distribution of the detrimental consequences of climate change. In this paper we do not wish to enter into the complexities of these technical debates. Instead, we wish to challenge a seemingly widespread consensus about the nature of the political response appropriate to this global dilemma. Specifically, we question the extent to which the open-quotes answerclose quotes can be said to reside primarily in the establishment of the new global institutions likely to emerge from the first open-quotes Earth Summitclose quotes - the United Nations (UN) Conference on Environment and Development - scheduled for June of 1992 in Rio de Janeiro

  9. Does political instability lead to higher and more volatile inflation?: A panel data analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aisen Ari

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Economists generally accept the proposition that high and volatile inflation rates generate inefficiencies that reduce society’s welfare. Furthermore studies have shown that inflation is harmful to economic growth. However determining the causes of the worldwide diversity of inflationary experiences is an important challenge not yet satisfactorily confronted by the profession. Based on a broad dataset covering over 100 countries for the period 1975-1997 and using dynamic and static panel data econometric techniques, this paper shows that a higher degree of political instability is associated with both higher inflation levels and volatility. Not only does this paper advance the political economy literature establishing a relationship between inflation moments and political instability, but it also has important policy implications regarding the optimal design of inflation stabilization programs and of the institutions favorable to price stability.

  10. A CONSOLIDATED MODEL OF ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONS BETWEEN POLITICS AND MANAGEMENT WITHIN PUBLIC ORGANIZATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalina Maria GEORGESCU

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available An interdisciplinary approach which combines the theoretical, empirical andconceptual dimensions, the present study tries to offer a new workperspective on the assessment and modeling of the relation between themanagement of public organizations and the political environment. Thetheoretical research was centered on reviewing the literature on the relationbetween the management of public organizations and the politicalenvironment. The empirical research was materialized by modeling with theregression technique of several aspects integrated to the relations betweenthe management of human resources within public organizations in theeducation field and the external political environment.

  11. Analysis on natural gas geo-politics in Central Asia-Russia region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feng, Dan

    2010-09-15

    In the year of 2009, some events happened in Central Asia-Russia Region. The transit countries of Nabucco pipeline signed the agreement and the project received considerable progress. The China-Turkmenistan pipeline achieved the completion of ventilation. All these could be landmarks in Central Asia-Russia's geo-political situation. Diversification strategy of gas imports in Europe and diversification strategy of export in Central Asia have been effectively promoted, and the relationship between China and Central Asia becomes closer. Now, the new supply pattern of the region is coming into being and the nature gas geo-political situation in the region is undergoing profound changes.

  12. Mass Media and Political Participation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewellen, James R.

    1976-01-01

    Research reviews and statistical analysis of a specific study suggest that the mass media play a direct role in the political socialization of adolescents insofar as overt political behavior is concerned. (Author/AV)

  13. New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe

    2015-01-01

    Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)

  14. The watchdog role of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reijen, G. van; Vinck, W.

    1983-01-01

    The reason why the risks of large-scale technology attract more attention lies in the fact that accidents would have more disastrous results and in the fact that it is probably more attractive to study the risks of some large projects than to do the same for a greater number of smaller projects. Within this presentation there will be some opening remarks on the Role of the Commission of the European Community with regard to accident prevention. The development of the concept of quantitative risks is dealt with. This development leads to a combinded of deterministic and probabilistic methods. The presentation concludes with some critical remarks on quantitative risk analysis and its use. (orig./HP) [de

  15. Does political change affect senior management turnover? An empirical analysis of top-tier local authorities in England

    OpenAIRE

    Boyne, George A.; James, Oliver; John, Peter; Petrovsky, Nicolai

    2010-01-01

    In many political systems the political neutrality of senior managers' tenure is often cherished as a key part of the politics-administration dichotomy and is subject to formal safeguards. We test hypotheses about the impact of political change on senior management turnover drawn from political science, public administration and private sector management theory. Using panel data to control for unobserved heterogeneity between authorities, we find that changes in political party control and lo...

  16. Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

    2002-01-01

    The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

  17. Space, politics, and the political

    OpenAIRE

    dikec , mustafa

    1987-01-01

    International audience; Introduction Geography and politics'', Gottmann wrote in 1980, ``have long been in search of each other'' (page 11). Debates in the literature suggest not only that they have found each other, but also that the encounter has instigated, notably in the last decade or so, a body of literature seeking to think space politically, and to think politics spatially. This is not to suggest that previous work on space was apolitical, nor to suggest that previous work on politics...

  18. Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats

    CERN Document Server

    Bier, Vicki M

    2008-01-01

    Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats

  19. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  20. Performing Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Troy R. E. Paddock

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Walter Benjamin’s observation that fascism turns politics into aesthetics is, by now, a well-worn idea. This article argues that Benjamin’s critique of politics can apply just as much to the modern democratic politics of the United States. Borrowing from Benjamin, Jürgen Habermas, and Carl Schmitt, this article suggests that modern political discourse in the United States does not follow the classical liberal ideal of rational discourse in the marketplace of ideas within the public sphere. Instead, contemporary politics has become spectacle where images and slogans replace thought and debate in a 24/7 news cycle and political infotainment programs. The result is that progressives and conservatives have their own political “ecospheres” which enable them to have their own perspective reinforced, and debate is replaced by straw man arguments and personal attacks.

  1. The impact of dark tetrad traits on political orientation and extremism: an analysis in the course of a presidential election.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duspara, Boris; Greitemeyer, Tobias

    2017-10-01

    Previous research on personality and political attitudes has been conducted in countries where political parties from the center dominate the political system. In the present research ( N = 675), we focus on the relationship between the dark side of human personality and political orientation and extremism, respectively, in the course of a presidential election where the two candidates represent either left-wing or right-wing political policies. Narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and everyday sadism were associated with right-wing political orientation, whereas narcissism and psychopathy were associated with political extremism. Moreover, the relationships between personality and right-wing political orientation and extremism, respectively, were relatively independent from each other.

  2. Politics as Culture: Contribution of Political Science to Democratic Maturity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Padjen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the contribution of Croatian political science to the development of democracy in Croatia. The focus of the analysis is the concept of culture which author talks about in five steps. In the first step it is understood in the modern key, in the second step as different for nature and in the third as different from society. In the fourth step author differentiates political culture from political economy and political institutions, but in the fifth part there is an attempt to show culture as a fundamental part of politics, policy and polity. On the basis of these insights author shows that the matrix of Croatian political science is more and more devoted to scientific investigation of politics as culture as both study of political culture and as a source of development as politics as culture.

  3. Ethno-Political effects of suburbanization in the Vilnius urban region : An analysis of voting behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ubareviciene, R.; Burneika, D.; Van Ham, M.

    2015-01-01

    We use electoral data to analyze the ethno-political consequences that may arise from the fact that the region surrounding the city of Vilnius is dominated by residents with a Polish identity, while those who move to the suburbs are mainly ethnic Lithuanians. In the suburban ring we found increasing

  4. The Content and Integrative Component of Capstone Experiences: An Analysis of Political Science Undergraduate Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hummer, Jill Abraham

    2014-01-01

    In 1991, the APSA Task Force on Political Science recommended elements of a curricular structure that would best promote student learning. The report stated that there should be a capstone experience at the end of the senior year and that the capstone should require students to integrate their whole learning experience in the major. This article…

  5. The Political Ecology of Austerity : An Analysis of Socio-environmental Conflict under Crisis in Greece

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Calvário, R.; Velegrakis, G.; Kaika, M.

    2017-01-01

    The paper focuses on two largely understudied and interrelated aspects of the post-2008 economic crisis: how the politics of austerity influences the dynamics of environmental conflict and how the environment is mobilized in subaltern struggles against the normalization of austerity as the hegemonic

  6. The Education of Cuban Women: An Analysis of the Politics of Gender.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchens, Rex R.; Chilcott, John

    In pre-revolutionary Cuba, social relations between the sexes evolved from the perception that the Spanish patrifocal family was the ideal to be pursued. Rules of social conduct were founded on fundamental sexual inequality. By the early 1960's the sexually egalitarian ideals of Marxism were politically, socially, and economically imposed upon…

  7. Political Party Songs: Analysis of the Theme in a Song Topo By ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It was through these songs that followers of different political parties expressed their feelings of sadness, happiness or hope. This paper analyses one song titled Topo by the band named Setlamo which was said to be aligned to Basotho Congress Party. Informed by New Criticism theory, the paper analyses the lyrics in the ...

  8. The Political Economy of Social Data : A Historical Analysis of Platform–Industry Partnerships

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Helmond, A.; Nieborg, D.; van der Vlist, F.

    2017-01-01

    Social media platform–industry partnerships are essential to understanding the politics and economics of social data circulating among platforms and third parties. Using Facebook as a case study, this paper develops a novel methodology for empirically surveying the historical dynamics of social

  9. Political Imprisonment and Adult Functioning: A Life Event History Analysis of Palestinians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeely, Clea; Barber, Brian K; Spellings, Carolyn; Belli, Robert; Giacaman, Rita; Arafat, Cairo; Daher, Mahmoud; El Sarraj, Eyad; Mallouh, Mohammed Abu

    2015-06-01

    Political imprisonment is a traumatic event, often accompanied by torture and deprivation. This study explores the association of political imprisonment between 1987 and 2011 with political, economic, community, psychological, physical, and family functioning in a population-based sample of Palestinian men ages 32-43 years (N = 884) derived from a dataset collected in 2011. Twenty-six percent (n = 233) had been politically imprisoned. Men imprisoned between 1987 and 2005 reported functioning as well as never-imprisoned men in most domains, suggesting that men imprisoned as youth have moved forward with their lives in ways similar to their nonimprisoned counterparts. In an exception to this pattern, men imprisoned during the Oslo Accords period (1994-1999) reported higher levels of trauma-related stress (B = 0.24, p = .027) compared to never-imprisoned men. Men imprisoned since 2006 reported lower functioning in multiple domains: human insecurity (B = 0.33, p = .023), freedom of public expression (B = -0.48, p = .017), perceived government stability (B = -0.38, p = .009), feeling broken or destroyed (B = 0.59, p = .001), physical limitations (B = 0.55, p = .002), and community belonging (B = -0.33, p = .048). Findings pointed to the value of examining the effects of imprisonment on functioning in multiple domains. © 2015 International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies.

  10. An Epistemic Frame Analysis of Neoliberal Culture and Politics in the US, UK, and the UAE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullen, Carol A.; Samier, Eugenie A.; Brindley, Sue; English, Fenwick W.; Carr, Nora K.

    2013-01-01

    Neoliberalism is a loosely knit bricolage from economics, politics, and various forms of reactionary populism that can be envisioned as a kind of epistemic frame in which largely counterrevolutionary forces engage in the "creative destruction" of institutional frameworks and powers, forging divisions across society that include labor and…

  11. A Political, Economic, Social, Technology, Legal and Environmental (PESTLE) Approach for Risk Identification of the Tidal Industry in the United Kingdom

    OpenAIRE

    Kolios, Athanasios J.; Read, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of renewable and especially tidal energy through a political, economic, social, technology, legal and environmental (PESTLE) analysis approach and by reviewing the most up to date relevant literature. The study focuses on the United Kingdom given the favourable environmental resources for such technologies; the number of different design concepts that are currently under development as well as the research funding that has been invested over the la...

  12. Cosmopolitan political science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grande, Edgar

    2006-03-01

    Until recently, the term cosmopolitism could rarely be found in modern political science literature. It was only in the 1990s that the term was rediscovered by political scientists in the critical discourse on globalization. In this article, I will explore the full potential of cosmopolitism as an analytical concept for empirical political science. I will argue that the concept of cosmopolitism should not be restricted to the analysis of global politics. Indeed, cosmopolitism has much more to offer for political scientists. Properly understood, it enables--and necessitates--a re-invention of political science in the age of globalization, comparable to the behavioural revolution in political science in the 1950s. Such a paradigmatic shift should be based on a twofold transformation of existing disciplinary boundaries: A removal of the boundary between national (and comparative) and international politics on the one hand; and a re-definition of the boundaries between empirical and normative approaches on the other. As a result, cosmopolitism may serve as a new, critical theory of politics based on the integration of hitherto separated fields and sub-fields.

  13. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  14. Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

    CERN Document Server

    Crowder, Martin J

    2012-01-01

    Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

  15. [Political psychology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resch, Mária; Bella, Tamás

    2013-04-21

    In Hungary one can mostly find references to the psychological processes of politics in the writings of publicists, public opinion pollsters, philosophers, social psychologists, and political analysts. It would be still important if not only legal scientists focusing on political institutions or sociologist-politologists concentrating on social structures could analyse the psychological aspects of political processes; but one could also do so through the application of the methods of political psychology. The authors review the history of political psychology, its position vis-à-vis other fields of science and the essential interfaces through which this field of science, which is still to be discovered in Hungary, connects to other social sciences. As far as its methodology comprising psycho-biographical analyses, questionnaire-based queries, cognitive mapping of interviews and statements are concerned, it is identical with the psychiatric tools of medical sciences. In the next part of this paper, the focus is shifted to the essence and contents of political psychology. Group dynamics properties, voters' attitudes, leaders' personalities and the behavioural patterns demonstrated by them in different political situations, authoritativeness, games, and charisma are all essential components of political psychology, which mostly analyses psychological-psychiatric processes and also involves medical sciences by relying on cognitive and behavioural sciences. This paper describes political psychology, which is basically part of social sciences, still, being an interdisciplinary science, has several ties to medical sciences through psychological and psychiatric aspects.

  16. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  17. Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...

  18. Review: Joseph Patrick Ganahl, Corruption, Good Governance, and the African State: A Critical Analysis of the Political-Economic Foundations of Corruption in Sub-Saharan Africa (2013)

    OpenAIRE

    Reinhart Kößler

    2015-01-01

    Review of the monograph:Joseph Patrick Ganahl, Corruption, Good Governance, and the African State: A Critical Analysis of the Political-Economic Foundations of Corruption in Sub-Saharan Africa, Potsdam: Potsdam University Press, 2013, ISBN 9783869562483, 300 pp.

  19. Extended risk and benefit evaluation of energy systems for policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotte, E.U.

    1984-01-01

    The social compatibility of future energy scenarios is analysed in order to improve the political decision making. Social compatibility analysis is a form of technology assessment focusing on societal and social issues. The value tree analysis method is applied to collect and structure the values and concerns of important societal groups. Nine relevant groups and organizations in the society of the Federal Republic of Germany are included in the study. A combined value tree is formed by integration of the individual value trees. The overall value tree is transformed into an operational and systematic catalogue of criteria. Measurement instructions and scales are introduced as indicators for the extended risk and benefit evaluation of energy systems. The assessment of specified future energy options is performed by selected scientific experts. The results can improve the political decision-making process with respect to societal needs and desires. (author)

  20. Review: Joseph Patrick Ganahl, Corruption, Good Governance, and the African State: A Critical Analysis of the Political-Economic Foundations of Corruption in Sub-Saharan Africa (2013)

    OpenAIRE

    Reinhart Kößler; Arnold-Bergstraesser-Institut

    2015-01-01

    Review of the monograph:Joseph Patrick Ganahl, Corruption, Good Governance, and the African State: A Critical Analysis of the Political-Economic Foundations of Corruption in Sub-Saharan Africa, Potsdam: Potsdam University Press, 2013, ISBN 9783869562483, 300 pp. Besprechung der Monographie:Joseph Patrick Ganahl, Corruption, Good Governance, and the African State: A Critical Analysis of the Political-Economic Foundations of Corruption in Sub-Saharan Africa, Potsdam: Potsdam University Press...

  1. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mo Chongxun

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10−6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  2. Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Henrik

    2002-07-01

    Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

  3. Emotions, Public Opinion, and U.S. Presidential Approval Rates: A 5-Year Analysis of Online Political Discussions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Bailon, Sandra; Banchs, Rafael E.; Kaltenbrunner, Andreas

    2012-01-01

    This article examines how emotional reactions to political events shape public opinion. We analyze political discussions in which people voluntarily engage online to approximate the public agenda: Online discussions offer a natural approach to the salience of political issues and the means to analyze emotional reactions as political events take…

  4. To Green or Not to Green: A Political, Economic and Social Analysis for the Past Failure of Green Logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Klumpp

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of green logistics has thus far failed. For example, the share of greenhouse gas emissions by the transportation and logistics sector in Europe rose from 16.6% in 1990 to 24.3% in 2012. This article analyzes the reasons behind this failure by drawing on political, economic and business as well as social motivations and examples. At the core of this analysis are the established theorems of the Jevons paradox and the median voter (Black, Downs in combination with time-distorted preferences of voters and consumers. Adding to the hurdles of green logistics are the problems of short-term political programs and decisions versus long-term business investments in transportation and logistics. Two cases from Germany are outlined regarding this political “meddling through” with a recent 2015 truck toll decision and the support for electric trucks and vehicles. Finally, the article proposes two ways forward: public control and restriction of carbon raw materials (coal, oil, as well as public investment in low-emission transport infrastructure or biofuels as the more feasible and likely alternative.

  5. Schmittian Politics in the Age of Drones: An Analysis of Obama's War on Terror

    OpenAIRE

    Fairhead, Edward

    2016-01-01

    This thesis evaluates the Obama administration's use of drone strikes in the 'war on terror' in relation to what Carl Schmitt called the 'concept of the political'. After arguing that the Schmittian distinction between friend and enemy underlined Bush's war on terror, as did many scholars, I interrogate whether this is still true for Obama's war on terror. Obama's rhetorical legitimising strategy creates the appearance of difference to Bush, and is also far less overtly Schmittian; focusing i...

  6. Yardstick competition and the political costs of raising taxes: An empirical analysis of Spanish municipalities

    OpenAIRE

    Bosch Roca, Núria; Solé Ollé, Albert

    2004-01-01

    We test the "yardstick competition" hypothesis by looking at the effects of property tax increases both in the locality and in other comparable jurisdictions on the incumbents' vote. In order to obtain unbiased estimates of the effects of taxes on voting, we account for national political shocks, ideological preferences of the citizenship and government traits, and we estimate the vote equation using instrumental variables. We also allow various traits of the government (ideology, coalition g...

  7. Analysis of the corporate political activity of major food industry actors in Fiji

    OpenAIRE

    Mialon, Melissa; Swinburn, Boyd; Wate, Jillian; Tukana, Isimeli; Sacks, Gary

    2016-01-01

    Background Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of mortality in Fiji, a middle-income country in the Pacific. Some food products processed sold and marketed by the food industry are major contributors to the NCD epidemic, and the food industry is widely identified as having strong economic and political power. However, little research has been undertaken on the attempts by the food industry to influence public health-related policies and programs in its favour. The ?corporat...

  8. EEG Analysis of the Brain Activity during the Observation of Commercial, Political, or Public Service Announcements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Vecchiato

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The use of modern brain imaging techniques could be useful to understand what brain areas are involved in the observation of video clips related to commercial advertising, as well as for the support of political campaigns, and also the areas of Public Service Announcements (PSAs. In this paper we describe the capability of tracking brain activity during the observation of commercials, political spots, and PSAs with advanced high-resolution EEG statistical techniques in time and frequency domains in a group of normal subjects. We analyzed the statistically significant cortical spectral power activity in different frequency bands during the observation of a commercial video clip related to the use of a beer in a group of 13 normal subjects. In addition, a TV speech of the Prime Minister of Italy was analyzed in two groups of swing and “supporter” voters. Results suggested that the cortical activity during the observation of commercial spots could vary consistently across the spot. This fact suggest the possibility to remove the parts of the spot that are not particularly attractive by using those cerebral indexes. The cortical activity during the observation of the political speech indicated a major cortical activity in the supporters group when compared to the swing voters. In this case, it is possible to conclude that the communication proposed has failed to raise attention or interest on swing voters. In conclusions, high-resolution EEG statistical techniques have been proved to able to generate useful insights about the particular fruition of TV messages, related to both commercial as well as political fields.

  9. CEO Icon to GOP Hopeful: A Quantitative Analysis Exploring Politically Motivated Celebrity CEOs

    OpenAIRE

    Crighton, Lindsay

    2011-01-01

    This study examined the perceptions of celebrity CEOs potentially transitioning to political candidates. Using Carly Fiorina's campaign for Senator of California, this study identified how young voters perceive celebrity CEOs as politicians, their identification of celebrity CEOs, and the evaluations of CEOs and their companies. Results indicate a more favorable evaluation of Fiorina resulted in a more favorable reaction to Hewlett- Packard. Results also confirm the use of media messages to p...

  10. ANALYSIS OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT FROM THE VIEWPOINT OF GENDER EQUALITY

    OpenAIRE

    Khatuna BERISHVILI

    2016-01-01

    Term “gender” means socially constructed roles of man and woman, which are ascribed to them according to gender marker. Thus, gender roles depend on concrete socio-economic, political and culturological context and experience influence of various factors according to race, ethnic origin, class, sexual orientation and age. Gender roles widely differ within each culture and cultures. Unlike the individual’s biological gender, the gender role can be changed. This concept implies the views, cond...

  11. EEG analysis of the brain activity during the observation of commercial, political, or public service announcements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vecchiato, Giovanni; Astolfi, Laura; Tabarrini, Alessandro; Salinari, Serenella; Mattia, Donatella; Cincotti, Febo; Bianchi, Luigi; Sorrentino, Domenica; Aloise, Fabio; Soranzo, Ramon; Babiloni, Fabio

    2010-01-01

    The use of modern brain imaging techniques could be useful to understand what brain areas are involved in the observation of video clips related to commercial advertising, as well as for the support of political campaigns, and also the areas of Public Service Announcements (PSAs). In this paper we describe the capability of tracking brain activity during the observation of commercials, political spots, and PSAs with advanced high-resolution EEG statistical techniques in time and frequency domains in a group of normal subjects. We analyzed the statistically significant cortical spectral power activity in different frequency bands during the observation of a commercial video clip related to the use of a beer in a group of 13 normal subjects. In addition, a TV speech of the Prime Minister of Italy was analyzed in two groups of swing and "supporter" voters. Results suggested that the cortical activity during the observation of commercial spots could vary consistently across the spot. This fact suggest the possibility to remove the parts of the spot that are not particularly attractive by using those cerebral indexes. The cortical activity during the observation of the political speech indicated a major cortical activity in the supporters group when compared to the swing voters. In this case, it is possible to conclude that the communication proposed has failed to raise attention or interest on swing voters. In conclusions, high-resolution EEG statistical techniques have been proved to able to generate useful insights about the particular fruition of TV messages, related to both commercial as well as political fields.

  12. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  13. Political Campaigns

    OpenAIRE

    Lilleker, Darren

    2017-01-01

    Political campaigns are orchestrated attempts by political organizations to garner public support through persuasive communication in order to influence public policy in their favor. This broad definition encapsulates all forms of campaigns from those of neighborhood organizations seeking to influence local politicians to the campaigns of political parties and candidates who seek election to office in order to shape policy themselves. In pluralist democracies, campaigns are crucial for repres...

  14. Political CSR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeppesen, Søren; Morsing, Mette

    We engage a discussion of political CSR in SMEs in an African context. Based on critical observations on Western MNC CSR action in emerging economies that holds counterproductive implications for social development, political economists have argued that business profit far more than society...... development in local African communities. Our findings extend political CSR research by directing attention to how the corporate influence in developing economies does not only emerge from MNCs but is also established and retained by SMEs CSR work....

  15. Political Regime and Sustainable Development: A Comparative Analysis of Muslim Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ataul Huq Pramanik

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 This paper examines the interrelationship between regime type and development. It argues that proper resource utilization through investment in a stable environment constitutes the vital element of growth, which in turn, can be translated into materializing human development based on longevity, literacy and real purchasing power. Apart from the type of the regime, the ideological commitment also has a bearing on regime performance. A comparative study of six Muslim countries from three regions suggests that political stability in concomitant with dynamism, flexibility, and continuity of appropriate and effective policies play a vital role in regime performance. The most important observation is the role of a stable democratic regime in ensuring a sustainable development based on a balance between economic and political democracy. It appears that an authoritarian regime can survive only with faster rate of growth while a regime with reasonable degree of economic and political democracy can survive even with a moderately lower but sustainable rate of growth.

  16. Media Use, Political Participation and the Level of Digitization. A Comparative Analysis of EU Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Splendore

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses six rounds of the European Social Surveys (from 2000 to 2012 to explore how 1 media uses, 2 unconventional and 3 conventional (i.e. voting forms of political participation have changed in sixteen European countries. Additionally, the research considers one of the latest surveys to investigate the relation between media use and participation in the contemporary period characterized by open data and e-government. The level of digitization in each country is assessed according to its infrastructure, the legal framework (namely the Freedom of Information Act, the quality of the data available from the public administration, and e-government development in terms of online services. The research question is whether use of the Internet and the level of national digitization affect unconventional forms of political participation. The results demonstrate that both the country’s level of digitization at the macro level and the use of the Web at the individual level are co-determinants of the forms of political participation considered. However, the level of digitization does not affect voting.

  17. Protest Demonstrations, Political Partici

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DR Nneka

    2015-04-14

    Apr 14, 2015 ... the Era of Terrorism: Nigeria's Public Order Act and the ... Charter on Human and Peoples' Rights and other international laws. But owing to the .... little sense to limit analysis of political participation to voting and electoral.

  18. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

  19. Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

  20. The ministers of the Concertación de Partidos por la Democracia in Chile. An analysis of their political, social and cultural capital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hernán CUEVAS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article we analyze the political trajectories of 106 former ministers (of a total of 143 who held office during the governments of the Concertación de Partidos por la Democracia between 1990 and 2010. Based on a survey applied to this total, we first measured the political, social and cultural capital of each individual, then calculated each capital’s effect on the probability of individuals becoming a minister of a political, a social or an economic Ministry. Different from other recent studies of the Chilean elite that emphasize its socialization and sociological features, here we constructed separate indices of political capital, social capital and cultural capital to measure and explain how «ministrable» politicians become ministers. Each index has been standardized for the sake of cross-comparison. We conclude that despite the relevance given to technical expertise over politics, political capital is the factor that has the most influence on the probability of individuals becoming ministers of political, social or economic Ministries. Through a logistic regression model and a survival analysis model, we demonstrated that, although academic formation and social background seem relevant, these aspects are less determinant than the political trajectories of individuals, which demonstrated the most robust predictor of becoming a minister.

  1. Risk analysis in oil spill response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chernoplekov, A.N.; Alexandrov, A.A.

    2005-01-01

    Tiered response is a basic approach to emergency plans, including oil spill response (OSR). This paper delineates a huge set of accidental scenarios within a certain tier of response generated by a computer during risk assessment. Parameters such as the amount of oil spilled, duration of discharge and types of losses should be provided in OSR scenarios. Examples of applications include offshore installations, sub sea or onshore pipelines, and localized onshore facilities. The paper demonstrates how to use risk analysis results for delineating all likely spills into groups that need a specific tier response. The best world practices and Russian regulatory approaches were outlined and compared. Corresponding algorithms were developed and their application in pipelines was presented. The algorithm combines expert's skills and spill trajectory modeling with the net environmental benefit analysis principle into the incident specific emergency response planning. 9 refs., 13 tabs., 2 figs

  2. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  3. Zero risk fuel fabrication: a systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    Zero risk is a concept used to ensure that system requirements are developed through a systems approach such that the choice(s) among alternatives represents the balanced viewpoints of performance, achievability and risk. Requirements to ensure characteristics such as stringent accountability, low personnel exposure and etc. are needed to guide the development of component and subsystems for future LMFBR fuel supply systems. To establish a consistent and objective set of requirements, RF and M-TMC has initiated a systems requirements analysis activity. This activity pivots on judgement and experience provided by a Task Force representing industrial companies engaged in fuel fabrication in licensed facilities. The Task Force members are listed in Appendix A. Input developed by this group is presented as a starting point for the systems requirements analysis

  4. Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

    2011-01-01

    National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

  5. Risk analysis of external radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvidsson, Marcus

    2011-09-01

    External radiation therapy is carried out via a complex treatment process in which many different groups of staff work together. Much of the work is dependent on and in collaboration with advanced technical equipment. The purpose of the research task has been to identify a process for external radiation therapy and to identify, test and analyze a suitable method for performing risk analysis of external radiation therapy

  6. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billingham, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  7. The long shadow of the past: risk pooling and the political development of health care reform in the States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Anthony S; Weir, Margaret

    2009-10-01

    Why do the states seem to be pursuing different types of policy innovation in their health reform? Why so some seem to follow a "solidarity principle," while others seem guided by a commitment to "actuarial fairness"? Our analysis highlights the reciprocal influence of stakeholder mobilization and public policy over time. We find that early policy choices about how to achieve cost containment led the states down different paths of reform. In the 1970s and 1980s, states that featured oligopolistic or near-monopolistic markets for private insurance (usually dominated by Blue Cross) and strong urban-academic hospitals tended to adopt regulatory strategies for cost containment that led to broader forms of pooling and financing the costs of health risks--which subsequently positioned them to pursue major, solidaristic reform on favorable terms. On the other hand, states with competitive markets for private insurance and weak, decentralized hospitals tended to adopt market-based strategies for cost containment that led to the hypersegmentation of risk and the uneven financing of costs--thereby encouraging the proliferation of incremental policies that reinforce the principle of actuarial fairness. We illustrate our analysis with a brief comparison of Massachusetts and California, and we conclude with some thoughts on what our findings imply for the federal role in catalyzing health reform.

  8. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  9. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schmidt

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

  10. Lives and Political Field. An Analysis of the Power Structure of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Max Reinhardt

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses methods and results of an explorative study of two generations of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD: the two generations comprise, on the one hand, older and younger members of the postwar generation who witnessed the Second World War as young soldiers or as children, and on the other hand, the generation that was born in the 1950s and has mainly been responsible for shaping policy for some years. The aim of my dissertation was to analyze the ability of the social democratic leadership to represent the full range of party members and (base voters by comparing two generations, using a sample of political leaders and the habitus/field-analysis inspired by Pierre BOURDIEU. The basis of the analysis were partly biographical, partly theme-focused interviews, as well as a range of sources and already published literature regarding the biographies of these political leaders. The following article is based on my dissertation and is focused on a description of selected theoretical implications, on the description of the essential criteria for selecting the sample and on some of the methods used. These are an analysis of the life, life and field effects, the factions and the development of types of political leaders. I will present some results to exemplify the methods used. They show that the ability of the SPD to represent the full range of party members and (base voters and the power structure of the SPD have changed, thus threatening the party’s status as a "Volkspartei." URN: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs1102197

  11. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  12. Political psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Susanna; Johnson, Kate M; Beall, Erica; Meindl, Peter; Smith, Benjamin; Graham, Jesse

    2014-07-01

    Political psychology is a dynamic field of research that offers a unique blend of approaches and methods in the social and cognitive sciences. Political psychologists explore the interactions between macrolevel political structures and microlevel factors such as decision-making processes, motivations, and perceptions. In this article, we provide a broad overview of the field, beginning with a brief history of political psychology research and a summary of the primary methodological approaches in the field. We then give a more detailed account of research on ideology and social justice, two topics experiencing a resurgence of interest in current political psychology. Finally, we cover research on political persuasion and voting behavior. By summarizing these major areas of political psychology research, we hope to highlight the wide variety of theoretical and methodological approaches of cognitive scientists working at the intersection of psychology and political science. WIREs Cogn Sci 2014, 5:373-385. doi: 10.1002/wcs.1293 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. The Policy Dystopia Model: An Interpretive Analysis of Tobacco Industry Political Activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulucanlar, Selda; Fooks, Gary J; Gilmore, Anna B

    2016-09-01

    Tobacco industry interference has been identified as the greatest obstacle to the implementation of evidence-based measures to reduce tobacco use. Understanding and addressing industry interference in public health policy-making is therefore crucial. Existing conceptualisations of corporate political activity (CPA) are embedded in a business perspective and do not attend to CPA's social and public health costs; most have not drawn on the unique resource represented by internal tobacco industry documents. Building on this literature, including systematic reviews, we develop a critically informed conceptual model of tobacco industry political activity. We thematically analysed published papers included in two systematic reviews examining tobacco industry influence on taxation and marketing of tobacco; we included 45 of 46 papers in the former category and 20 of 48 papers in the latter (n = 65). We used a grounded theory approach to build taxonomies of "discursive" (argument-based) and "instrumental" (action-based) industry strategies and from these devised the Policy Dystopia Model, which shows that the industry, working through different constituencies, constructs a metanarrative to argue that proposed policies will lead to a dysfunctional future of policy failure and widely dispersed adverse social and economic consequences. Simultaneously, it uses diverse, interlocking insider and outsider instrumental strategies to disseminate this narrative and enhance its persuasiveness in order to secure its preferred policy outcomes. Limitations are that many papers were historical (some dating back to the 1970s) and focused on high-income regions. The model provides an evidence-based, accessible way of understanding diverse corporate political strategies. It should enable public health actors and officials to preempt these strategies and develop realistic assessments of the industry's claims.

  14. Psychology and the politics of same-sex desire in the United States: an analysis of three cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammack, Phillip L; Windell, Eric P

    2011-08-01

    Psychological science has assumed an increasingly explicit role in public policies related to same-sex desire in the United States. In this article, we present a historical analysis of the relationship between policy discourse and scientific discourse on homosexuality produced within U.S. psychology over the 20th and early 21st centuries through the lens of three cases: Bowers v. Hardwick (1986), Lawrence v. Texas (2003), and Perry v. Schwarzenegger (2010). Our analysis suggests that, for the majority of its disciplinary history, psychology produced knowledge that supported a status quo of legal and cultural subordination for same-sex-attracted individuals. The discipline's shift in understanding of homosexuality, reflected in a 1975 policy statement of the American Psychological Association, reversed this relationship and opened up space for advocacy for social and political change regarding homosexuality. Our analysis of policy decisions rendered by the courts reveals the increasingly important role psychological science has assumed in challenging the legal subordination of same-sex-attracted individuals, though the basis upon which psychological science has sought to inform policy remains limited. We conclude with a critical discussion of the type of knowledge claims psychologists have traditionally used to advocate for gay and lesbian rights, suggesting the vitality of a narrative approach which can reveal the meaning individuals make of legal subordination and political exclusion.

  15. The impact of dark tetrad traits on political orientation and extremism: an analysis in the course of a presidential election

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Duspara

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Previous research on personality and political attitudes has been conducted in countries where political parties from the center dominate the political system. In the present research (N = 675, we focus on the relationship between the dark side of human personality and political orientation and extremism, respectively, in the course of a presidential election where the two candidates represent either left-wing or right-wing political policies. Narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and everyday sadism were associated with right-wing political orientation, whereas narcissism and psychopathy were associated with political extremism. Moreover, the relationships between personality and right-wing political orientation and extremism, respectively, were relatively independent from each other. Keywords: Political science, Sociology, Psychology

  16. 'Grounded' Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Garbi

    2012-01-01

    play within one particular neighbourhood: Nørrebro in the Danish capital, Copenhagen. The article introduces the concept of grounded politics to analyse how groups of Muslim immigrants in Nørrebro use the space, relationships and history of the neighbourhood for identity political statements....... The article further describes how national political debates over the Muslim presence in Denmark affect identity political manifestations within Nørrebro. By using Duncan Bell’s concept of mythscape (Bell, 2003), the article shows how some political actors idealize Nørrebro’s past to contest the present...... ethnic and religious diversity of the neighbourhood and, further, to frame what they see as the deterioration of genuine Danish identity....

  17. Constructing public and political discourse on alcohol issues: towards a framework for analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Anders; Gunter, Barrie

    2007-01-01

    To examine the possibilities for research into news reporting and its role in reflecting and informing public and political beliefs and action in relation to alcohol and drinking practices. Studies on media and alcohol, focusing on the role of media in relation to alcohol consumption and drinking-related practices, policies and beliefs. Most research on alcohol and media has focused on either advertising or entertainment media content, rather than on news reporting and its wider social implications. The role of news reporting could usefully be widened. We offer a framework for analysing the role of news media in relation to public debate and practice with regard to alcohol and drinking.

  18. Risk analysis of nuclear safeguards regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Ayat, R.A.; Altman, W.D.; Judd, B.R.

    1982-06-01

    The Aggregated Systems Model (ASM), a probabilisitic risk analysis tool for nuclear safeguards, was applied to determine benefits and costs of proposed amendments to NRC regulations governing nuclear material control and accounting systems. The objective of the amendments was to improve the ability to detect insiders attempting to steal large quantities of special nuclear material (SNM). Insider threats range from likely events with minor consequences to unlikely events with catastrophic consequences. Moreover, establishing safeguards regulations is complicated by uncertainties in threats, safeguards performance, and consequences, and by the subjective judgments and difficult trade-offs between risks and safeguards costs. The ASM systematically incorporates these factors in a comprehensive, analytical framework. The ASM was used to evaluate the effectiveness of current safeguards and to quantify the risk of SNM theft. Various modifications designed to meet the objectives of the proposed amendments to reduce that risk were analyzed. Safeguards effectiveness was judged in terms of the probability of detecting and preventing theft, the expected time to detection, and the expected quantity of SNM diverted in a year. Data were gathered in tours and interviews at NRC-licensed facilities. The assessment at each facility was begun by carefully selecting scenarios representing the range of potential insider threats. A team of analysts and facility managers assigned probabilities for detection and prevention events in each scenario. Using the ASM we computed the measures of system effectiveness and identified cost-effective safeguards modifications that met the objectives of the proposed amendments

  19. AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination ofagriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projectsassume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with theagricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory ofsimulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A totalof 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL, of Internal Rate of Return (TIR and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPEwere made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00;77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented lowinvestment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.

  20. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  1. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

  2. Introduction: “Local” Politics in Jakarta: Anomaly from Indonesia’s Local Politics?

    OpenAIRE

    Masaaki Okamoto; Jun Honna

    2014-01-01

    This special issue attempts to go beyond short essays and conduct a deeper analysis of Jakarta’s local politics. Some of the contributions show the peculiarities of Jakartan politics, while others identify similarities with other local politics in Indonesia.

  3. The theoretical aspects of the methodology of risk analysis in chosen business enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef Zrůst

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The risk, crisis, crisis management, crisis regulation and risk management are currently often used terms. It is late to search a cause of crisis in time, when the crisis had broken out and their destructive effects are displaying. It is more suitable to focus on preventive control of business assets. The goal of this article is to suggest a methodical process of risk analysis with focus on protection of carrying business assets. The suggested methodical process of the analysis comes out a persuasion that primary attention is needed to give a protection of carrying business assets. Carrying assets are those which create potentials of business success and in case of their destroying, damaging or loss will originate to subject major or even existence loss. To such chosen carrying business assets are identified threats coming out parts of macro environment (political, legal, economical, social, demographic, technical and technological, ecological and threats from an field environment. To the identification of threats in field environment is used an analysis of five forces model according Porter. As a final step of the suggested methodical process of risk analysis is a creation of a risk matrix to each carrying asset. In this matrix is drawn the risk, which is described with a qualified estimation of occurrence its proba­bility and with an estimation of amount of possible damage, which can be caused by risk. According location the identified risk in the risk matrix is suggested the way of the regulation single risks.It is possible to choose between five basic strategies: Strategy “Take”, Strategy of crisis plans, Strategy of risk treatment, Strategy of risk transfer and Strategy “Terminate”. Single strategies are possible to combine between each other. The combination is suitable in cases, when there is threaten a big loss with a high probability.

  4. Machine Learning-Based Content Analysis: Automating the analysis of frames and agendas in political communication research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burscher, B.

    2016-01-01

    We used machine learning to study policy issues and frames in political messages. With regard to frames, we investigated the automation of two content-analytical tasks: frame coding and frame identification. We found that both tasks can be successfully automated by means of machine learning

  5. System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable

  6. Methodologies for risk analysis in slope instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernabeu Garcia, M.; Diaz Torres, J. A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an approach to the different methodologies used in conducting landslide risk maps so that the reader can get a basic knowledge about how to proceed in its development. The landslide hazard maps are increasingly demanded by governments. This is because due to climate change, deforestation and the pressure exerted by the growth of urban centers, damage caused by natural phenomena is increasing each year, making this area of work a field of study with increasing importance. To explain the process of mapping a journey through each of the phases of which it is composed is made: from the study of the types of slope movements and the necessary management of geographic information systems (GIS) inventories and landslide susceptibility analysis, threat, vulnerability and risk. (Author)

  7. Energy politics and geopolitics - an analysis of the international tensions in the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furfari, Samuele

    2012-01-01

    Necessary, unloved, abundant but often polluting, expensive but often wasted, energy remains the indispensable blood which irrigates the world economy, supplies the engine of economic growth, and generates together peace and conflicts. The energy questions have been first technical (resources extraction), economical (resources management) and geopolitical (resources property). Today they have become mainly political. With the development of emerging countries, the worldwide distribution of energy resources has become a worrying geopolitical issue for industrialized countries. These countries have to deal with contradictory political choices: the security of supplies on the one hand, and the sustainable development on the other hand. In this book, the author explains that despite a sustained development of renewable energy sources and an energy capacity in permanent progress, and despite a bad geographical distribution of resources, the fossil fuels still dominate the energy scene today and will do so for a long time. With some precise figures and clear explanations of geopolitical situations, the author shares with us his knowledge gained during several years of energy files management at the European Commission. (J.S.)

  8. LOBBYING AND GR-PRACTICES IN EASTERN EUROPE AND THE BALTIC STATES: THE POLITICAL-SOCIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. M. Bolshakova

    2017-01-01

    only negative publications in mass media and information noise. The analysis  conducted in the article shows that concerns about the transparency of the lobbying process gave way to other concerns:  that the information provided is not neutral and engaged by certain  pressure groups, and that lobbying pays excessive attention to the  interests of elites and wealthy segments of the population (this view  supports every third respondent . However, with respect to the  positive aspects of the lobbying process, respondents clearly  indicated to ensure the participation of representatives of business groups and socio-economic sphere of citizens in the political process  (half of the respondents and the use of relevant technical and  scientific information corresponding to the needs of lobbyists and  interest groups to information (supports every third respondent. Thus, summing up the above, it should be noted that the question of which groups meet the definition of “lobbyist” sixty respondents  called trade associations, among others, the most popular answers were the agency to influence the public policy (58% and professional organizations (57%. Non-governmental organizations were called lobbyists more than half of respondents (51%, and the company – less than half (47%. Trade unions are considered lobbyists only 40% of respondents.

  9. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative

  10. Multimodality, politics and ideology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Machin, David; Van Leeuwen, T.

    2016-01-01

    This journal's editorial statement is clear that political discourse should be studied not only as regards parliamentary type politics. In this introduction we argue precisely for the need to pay increasing attention to the way that political ideologies are infused into culture more widely...... of power, requires meanings and identities which can hold them in place. We explain the processes by which critical multimodal discourse analysis can best draw out this ideology as it is realized through different semiotics resources. © John Benjamins Publishing Company....

  11. Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartram, B.W.; Vaughan, F.R.; Englehart, D.R.W.

    1991-01-01

    The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value

  12. Political News and Political Consciousness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schertges, Claudia

    2007-01-01

    This article deals with mass media in modern democratic societies, using the example of Israeli news reports in German television (TV) news. Central to this interest are processes of mediating politics: political socialisation and education; that is to say, empowering citizens via TV news to participate in democratic processes. The article…

  13. Risk management and analysis: risk assessment (qualitative and quantitative)

    OpenAIRE

    Valentin Mazareanu

    2007-01-01

    We use to define risk as the possibility of suffering a loss. Starting this, risk management is defined as a business process whose purpose is to ensure that the organization is protected against risks and their effects. In order to prioritize, to develop a response plan and after that to monitor the identified risks we need to asses them. But at this point a question is born: should I choose a qualitative approach or a quantitative one? This paper will make a short overview over the risk eva...

  14. RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ES Obe

    aDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria. ... The analysis in this work is ... risk analysis, oil field, risk management, projects, investment opportunity. 1. .... own merit but since the company has limited.

  15. The political economy of maize production and poverty reduction in Zambia: analysis of the last 50 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanjra, Munir A; Culas, Richard J

    2011-01-01

    Poverty and food security are endemic issues in much of sub-Saharan Africa. To eradicate extreme poverty and hunger in the region remains a key Millennium Development Goal. Many African governments have pursued economic reforms and agricultural policy interventions in order to accelerate economic growth that reduces poverty faster. Agricultural policy regimes in Zambia in the last 50 years (1964–2008) are examined here to better understand their likely impact on food security and poverty, with an emphasis on the political economy of maize subsidy policies. The empirical work draws on secondary sources and an evaluation of farm household data from three villages in the Kasama District of Zambia from 1986/87 and 1992/93 to estimate a two-period econometric model to examine the impact on household welfare in a pre- and post-reform period. The analysis shows that past interventions had mixed effects on enhancing the production of food crops such as maize. While such reforms were politically popular, it did not necessarily translate into household-level productivity or welfare gains in the short term. The political economy of reforms needs to respond to the inherent diversity among the poor rural and urban households. The potential of agriculture to generate a more pro-poor growth process depends on the creation of new market opportunities that most benefit the rural poor. The state should encourage private sector investments for addressing infrastructure constraints to improve market access and accelerate more pro-poor growth through renewed investments in agriculture, rural infrastructure, gender inclusion, smarter subsidies and regional food trade. However, the financing of such investments poses significant challenges. There is a need to address impediments to the effective participation of public private investors to generate more effective poverty reduction and hunger eradication programmes. This article also explores the opportunities for new public

  16. Analysis and risk management after Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, P. F.

    2011-11-01

    This article describes the impact in the nuclear industry after the only accidents with affectation to the public: the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. and discusses what comes after Fukushima with regard to the Safety Probabilistic Analysis (Spa) and their use in the decisions taking. A reference to the standard ASME/ANS of Spa is made and the possible changes due to the learned lessons after the Fukushima accident. The main changes are described in the art state and the priorities of the Spa studies. These include the change in the mission time of the emergency systems, the necessity to model the alternating systems, the risk consideration of a site with multi-units, the importance of making a Spa level 3 and the Spa of external events. The Spa is the key tool of the discipline of risk management, but given the learned lessons, is more necessary in all the aspects of the operation and surveillance of a nuclear power plant. A strategy is presented to improve the response to a severe accident, that includes consider the risks of the specific nuclear power plant. (Author)

  17. Political Animals: The Paradox of Ecofeminist Politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandilands, Catriona

    1994-01-01

    Analyzes the paradox between the careful work of rigorous political analysis and philosophy and a desire for mystery and the experience of awe and wildness that demands putting aside careful reasoning and the sensing of nature in an altogether different way. (LZ)

  18. The mechanism of influence of interest groups in the European Union: political and sociological analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. S. Kanevsky

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Interaction between interest groups and political institutions is one of the cornerstones of the European Union policy making process. Although majority of Russian and foreign works dedicated to lobbying and decision making in the EU, concentrate on a governmental stadial system and normative procedures that regulate interest groups access to policy making centers. Such institutional approach doesn’t clarify why the EU has concrete policies, why not all interest groups are able to win, who sets the agenda and in whose interests decisions are made. Current article, using contemporary theories and research, analyzes process of interaction between interest groups and governmental structures in the EU. It also proposes explanations of wins and losses in the policy making process, trying to answer how interest groups interacts with each other and what patterns can be identified in the process of interest aggregation by governmental structures.

  19. Politics of oil in Venezuela: A decision-making analysis of PDVSA's internationalisation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baena, Cesar E.

    The high degree of international vertical integration achieved by the Venezuelan state oil enterprise, Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA), has placed it among the most important oil multinationals (MNs). The policy of creating downstream outlets through the establishment of foreign direct investments (FDIs) in the form of refinery assets was given the term of 'internationalisation'. By analysing PDVSA's internationalisation policy, the thesis explores the difficulties encountered by a major state-owned enterprise (SOE) from a developing country in its efforts to grow beyond national borders. The study focuses on the impact of democratic bargaining on the process of oil policymaking in Venezuela, stressing the constraints posed by politics on PDVSA's efforts to expand its foreign operations. Specifically, the study examines the intricate policymaking process that shaped the origins and the development of PDVSA's internationalisation policy, underlying the events and factors that influenced each one of its three distinguishable phases: adoption, formulation, and implementation. The tensions between politics and corporate strategy are highlighted at the core of the policymaking process. The study also looks at the relationship between the oil industry and the other two key decision-making centres involved in the oil policymaking process: the executive and Congress. In exploring the ways in which each one of them sought to influence policy outcome, the study attempts to gain insight into the main factors that prompted the tensions among the policy actors involved. Three environments, or pressure-generating centres, constantly exert influence on the oil industry: the oil market, the political context and the government's financial situation. By seeking to determine the industry's response to their pervasive influence on policy formulation and implementation, this research ascertains the extent to which these variables influenced the decision-making process that

  20. Organizational Loyalty and Organizational Commitment: An Analysis in Terms of Political Party Organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akyay Uygur

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Sense of belonging is a psychological condition in which loyalties are divided into two. Organizational commitment, the value of the individual within the organization to accept and hear the desire to remain in the organization as it is defined. Identify a specific individual's loyalty to the organizational integration organizations, in the form of sincere commitment and dedication has been defined. This study aimed to determine the level of organizational loyalty to Turkey's third largest political party (AKP, CHP, MHP, feeling of belonging to the organization aims to determine the level of loyalty of the individual. Organizational loyalty created in accordance with this scale in city information was collected from 674 people. Accordingly, the highest level of organizational loyalty to the party MHP, the second CHP and third place in the AKP has emerged.

  1. Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Panel Data Analysis of Selected European Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet BEŞKAYA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of economic and political factors on the choice of exchange rate regimes. In order to achieve this goal, we apply for Binary Choice Panel Probit Model to examine the relationships between exchange rate regimes and financial depth, real exchange rate, capital inflow and democracy. Our data covers the period of 1980-2013 for the selected EU countries, namely, Austria, Germany, Belgium, France, Denmark, England, Sweden and Italy. Estimation results demonstrates that the choice of fixed exchange rate regime become disadvantageous and flexible exchange rate turn out to be the right choice as financial depth, real exchange rate, capital inflow and democratization increases.

  2. Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gajewski, S.; Glantz, C.; Harper, B.; Bilyard, G.; Miller, P.

    1995-10-01

    Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare

  3. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  4. Twitter-Based Analysis of the Dynamics of Collective Attention to Political Parties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eom, Young-Ho; Puliga, Michelangelo; Smailović, Jasmina; Mozetič, Igor; Caldarelli, Guido

    2015-01-01

    Large-scale data from social media have a significant potential to describe complex phenomena in the real world and to anticipate collective behaviors such as information spreading and social trends. One specific case of study is represented by the collective attention to the action of political parties. Not surprisingly, researchers and stakeholders tried to correlate parties' presence on social media with their performances in elections. Despite the many efforts, results are still inconclusive since this kind of data is often very noisy and significant signals could be covered by (largely unknown) statistical fluctuations. In this paper we consider the number of tweets (tweet volume) of a party as a proxy of collective attention to the party, identify the dynamics of the volume, and show that this quantity has some information on the election outcome. We find that the distribution of the tweet volume for each party follows a log-normal distribution with a positive autocorrelation of the volume over short terms, which indicates the volume has large fluctuations of the log-normal distribution yet with a short-term tendency. Furthermore, by measuring the ratio of two consecutive daily tweet volumes, we find that the evolution of the daily volume of a party can be described by means of a geometric Brownian motion (i.e., the logarithm of the volume moves randomly with a trend). Finally, we determine the optimal period of averaging tweet volume for reducing fluctuations and extracting short-term tendencies. We conclude that the tweet volume is a good indicator of parties' success in the elections when considered over an optimal time window. Our study identifies the statistical nature of collective attention to political issues and sheds light on how to model the dynamics of collective attention in social media.

  5. A political economy analysis of decision-making on natural disaster preparedness in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rono-Bett, Karen C

    2018-01-01

    Most deaths from natural disasters occur in low- or middle-income countries; among them, countries in the Horn of Africa - where Kenya lies. Between September 2015 and September 2016, 23.4 million people in this region faced food insecurity because of the 2015 El Niño, characterised by floods and droughts. The importance of effective government decision-making on preparedness and response are critical to saving lives during such disasters. But this decision-making process occurs in a political context which is marred by uncertainty with other factors at play. Yet, good practice requires making investments on a 'no-regrets' basis. This article looks at the factors influencing Kenya's decision-making process for natural disasters, the preparedness for the 2015 El Niño as a case study. I explored what stakeholders understand by 'no-regrets investments' and its application. I assessed financial allocations by government and donors to disaster preparedness. Based on key informant interviews, focus group discussions and financial analyses, this article presents evidence at national and subnational levels. The findings indicate that in making decisions relating to preparedness, the government seeks information primarily from sources it trusts - other government departments, its communities and the media. With no existing legal frameworks guiding Kenya's disaster preparedness, the coordination of preparedness is not strong. It appears that there is a lack of political will to prioritise these frameworks. The no-regrets approach is applied predominantly by non-state actors. Because there have been 'non-events' in the past, government has become overcautious in committing resources on a no-regrets basis. Government allocation to preparedness exceeds donor funding by almost tenfold.

  6. Twitter-Based Analysis of the Dynamics of Collective Attention to Political Parties.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young-Ho Eom

    Full Text Available Large-scale data from social media have a significant potential to describe complex phenomena in the real world and to anticipate collective behaviors such as information spreading and social trends. One specific case of study is represented by the collective attention to the action of political parties. Not surprisingly, researchers and stakeholders tried to correlate parties' presence on social media with their performances in elections. Despite the many efforts, results are still inconclusive since this kind of data is often very noisy and significant signals could be covered by (largely unknown statistical fluctuations. In this paper we consider the number of tweets (tweet volume of a party as a proxy of collective attention to the party, identify the dynamics of the volume, and show that this quantity has some information on the election outcome. We find that the distribution of the tweet volume for each party follows a log-normal distribution with a positive autocorrelation of the volume over short terms, which indicates the volume has large fluctuations of the log-normal distribution yet with a short-term tendency. Furthermore, by measuring the ratio of two consecutive daily tweet volumes, we find that the evolution of the daily volume of a party can be described by means of a geometric Brownian motion (i.e., the logarithm of the volume moves randomly with a trend. Finally, we determine the optimal period of averaging tweet volume for reducing fluctuations and extracting short-term tendencies. We conclude that the tweet volume is a good indicator of parties' success in the elections when considered over an optimal time window. Our study identifies the statistical nature of collective attention to political issues and sheds light on how to model the dynamics of collective attention in social media.

  7. A political economy analysis of decision-making on natural disaster preparedness in Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen C. Rono-Bett

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Most deaths from natural disasters occur in low- or middle-income countries; among them, countries in the Horn of Africa – where Kenya lies. Between September 2015 and September 2016, 23.4 million people in this region faced food insecurity because of the 2015 El Niño, characterised by floods and droughts. The importance of effective government decision-making on preparedness and response are critical to saving lives during such disasters. But this decision-making process occurs in a political context which is marred by uncertainty with other factors at play. Yet, good practice requires making investments on a ‘no-regrets’ basis. This article looks at the factors influencing Kenya’s decision-making process for natural disasters, the preparedness for the 2015 El Niño as a case study. I explored what stakeholders understand by ‘no-regrets investments’ and its application. I assessed financial allocations by government and donors to disaster preparedness. Based on key informant interviews, focus group discussions and financial analyses, this article presents evidence at national and subnational levels. The findings indicate that in making decisions relating to preparedness, the government seeks information primarily from sources it trusts – other government departments, its communities and the media. With no existing legal frameworks guiding Kenya’s disaster preparedness, the coordination of preparedness is not strong. It appears that there is a lack of political will to prioritise these frameworks. The no-regrets approach is applied predominantly by non-state actors. Because there have been ‘non-events’ in the past, government has become overcautious in committing resources on a no-regrets basis. Government allocation to preparedness exceeds donor funding by almost tenfold.

  8. Gender quotas for women in national politics: A comparative analysis across development thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosen, Jennifer

    2017-08-01

    Women's share of global lower or single house parliamentary seats has increased by over 70% over the course of the 21st century. Yet these increases have not been uniform across countries. Rather countries with low levels of socioeconomic development have outpaced developed democracies in terms of the gains made in the formal political representation of women. One reasonable explanation for this trend is the adoption in many poorer countries of national gender quota legislation, that is, affirmative action laws intended to compensate for sex discrimination in the electoral process. Yet, cross-national analyses examining quotas as an explanatory factor typically use a simple binary (yes/no) variable that either conflates the diverse intra-quota variations into a single variable or includes only one part of the many quota variations. By contrast, using an originally compiled dataset that includes 167 countries from 1992 to 2012, this paper employs measures of gender quota legislation that capture the complexity and considerable diversity of existing quota legislation. These measures allow us to identify the specific factors that have helped so many less developed countries rise to the top of international rankings in recent years. The findings indicate that the effect of each type of gender quota, as well as other explanatory variables, do not operate in the same way across all countries. Specifically, voluntary political party quotas are substantially more effective in developed countries, while reserved seat quotas are only significant in least developed countries. Electoral candidate quotas, on the other hand, can be significant across all countries, however only have a positive effect when they are accompanied by placement mandates that ensure women are placed in winnable positions, sanctions for non-compliance that are significant enough to force adherence, and a minimum mandated threshold of at least 30%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Can the Internet Increase Political Participation? An Analysis of Remote Electronic Voting’s Effect on Turnout

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bochsler, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    voting technology are not politically neutral: Internet voters favoured political parties that receive strong support from the ethnic majority and from wealthy areas. If it is to have any effect on political participation, Internet voting seems poised to increase inequalities, rather than level them....

  10. An attributional analysis of reactions to poverty: the political ideology of the giver and the perceived morality of the receiver.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiner, Bernard; Osborne, Danny; Rudolph, Udo

    2011-05-01

    An attributional analysis of reactions to poverty is presented. The article begins by discussing the perceived causes of poverty and their taxonomic properties (locus, stability, and controllability). One antecedent of causal beliefs, political ideology, is then examined in detail, followed by a review of the effects of causal beliefs on emotions and behavior. It is contended that helping the poor is a moral issue, but the moral evaluation concerns the targeted recipient of aid rather than the potential help giver. Persons perceived as responsible for their plight, a dominant construal for conservatives, elicit anger and neglect. In contrast, those seen as not responsible for their financial hardship, an outlook predominantly endorsed by liberals, arouse sympathy and help giving. Sympathy is the most important proximal determinant of aid. This analysis is extended to reactions to achievement failure, abortion, and rape. Policy implications are also examined.

  11. Probabilistic methods in fire-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandyberry, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The first part of this work outlines a method for assessing the frequency of ignition of a consumer product in a building and shows how the method would be used in an example scenario utilizing upholstered furniture as the product and radiant auxiliary heating devices (electric heaters, wood stoves) as the ignition source. Deterministic thermal models of the heat-transport processes are coupled with parameter uncertainty analysis of the models and with a probabilistic analysis of the events involved in a typical scenario. This leads to a distribution for the frequency of ignition for the product. In second part, fire-risk analysis as currently used in nuclear plants is outlines along with a discussion of the relevant uncertainties. The use of the computer code COMPBRN is discussed for use in the fire-growth analysis along with the use of response-surface methodology to quantify uncertainties in the code's use. Generalized response surfaces are developed for temperature versus time for a cable tray, as well as a surface for the hot gas layer temperature and depth for a room of arbitrary geometry within a typical nuclear power plant compartment. These surfaces are then used to simulate the cable tray damage time in a compartment fire experiment

  12. Spiritual Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric Rambeau

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available According to Foucault, the uprising of the Iranian people in the seventies reveals how much the political force of Islam is due precisely to the fact that it is not principally located in the field of politics, but in that of ethics. Religion (Shiite Islam appears as the guarantee of real change in the very mode of existence. This spiritual politics is marginalized by Marxism, where it is understood as a discontinuity in relation to proper politics, given that the latter is necessarily linked to a strategic rationalization. By indicating, at this juncture of what is intolerable, the living source and the critical impulse of the Foucauldian ethics, this spiritual politics also leads to recognize in the concept of “subjectivation” a dimension that might escape the circle of freedom as determined by a total immanence to power. This conceptual possibility is highly present in the aporias of the Foucauldian concept of the “relation to oneself”, both as a first condition of governmentality and the ultimate point of resistance against any governmentality. It thus reveals the difficulties in relating political to ethical subjectivation.

  13. Bridging political economy analysis and critical institutionalism: an approach to help analyse institutional change for rural water services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen David Jones

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues that approaches to understanding local institutionsfor natural resource management based on “critical institutionalism” (Cleaver2012, which emphasises the importance of improvisation and adaptationacross different scales, can be placed within broader political economy analysisframeworks for assessing challenges in public services delivery from national tolocal levels. The paper uses such an extended political economy analysis approachto understand the role of the international NGO WaterAid and its partners in Mali inrelation to institutions for financing rural water services, drawing on collaborativeresearch undertaken in 2010 and 2011. The case study shows that WaterAid’sapproach can be understood through elements of both mainstream and criticalinstitutionalist thinking. At local government level, WaterAid primarily promotesformal institutional arrangements, which exhibit the challenge of “reforms assignals” (Andrews 2013, where institutional reforms appear to happen but lackthe intended function. However, the work of WaterAid’s partners at communitylevel supports processes of “institutional bricolage” through which they try togradually work with local actors to find ways of ‘best fit’ for financing rural waterservices which adapt existing local practices into new arrangements.

  14. Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slovic, Paul; Finucane, Melissa L; Peters, Ellen; MacGregor, Donald G

    2004-04-01

    Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.

  15. DISCURSO POLÍTICO DE RENÚNCIA: UMA ANÁLISE TEXTUAL / Political speech of resignation: a textual analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Eliete de Queiroz

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available RESUMO O presente artigo analisa a estrutura composicional do gênero discurso político de renúncia do senador Antônio Carlos Magalhães (ACM. A teoria da pesquisa pauta-se na Linguística Textual e na Análise Textual dos Discursos – ATD –  em Adam (2011. O procedimento metodológico e analítico volta-se para a forma de constituição das sequências textuais e do plano de texto do discurso de renúncia. Pela análise, observamos que o discurso de renúncia apresenta uma estrutura composicional composta por blocos temáticos diversos que formam as proposições enunciadas no aspecto global do texto. As etapas que seguem o plano de texto obedecem a seguinte ordem: abertura, parte intermediária e encerramento intermediário conclusivo que são construídas pela mesclagem de sequências narrativas, descritivas, explicativas e argumentativas. A sequência argumentativa é a predominante na construção da materialidade textual. Nesse sentido, o discurso de renúncia leva em conta as especificidades do nível textual e apresenta a genericidade complexa de um discurso político de renúncia. Palavras-chave: Discurso político. Estrutura composicional do gênero. Plano de texto. ABSTRACT This paper analizes the compositional structure of the genre political speech of resignation delivered by the Senator Antonio Carlos Magalhães (ACM. The research theory is based on text linguistics and textual analysis of discourses - TAD - in Adam (2011. The methodological and analysis procedures were conducted according to the constitution of textual sequences and the resignation speech text plan. In this analysis, we were able to see that the resignation speech presents a compositional structure made up of several thematic blocks which form the propositions stated in the global  aspect of the text.  The steps which follow the text plan are the following: opening, intermediate part and intermediate closing which are built by blending the narrative

  16. Gendering transnational party politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kantola, Johanna; Rolandsen-Agustín, Lise

    2016-01-01

    research traditions, we build toward an analytical framework to study gender and transnational party politics. Our empirical analysis focuses on two policy issues, the economic crisis and the sexual and reproductive health and rights, analyzing European Parliament reports, debates and voting on the issues...... from 2009 to 2014. By focusing on gender equality constructions and the way in which consensus and contestation are built around them within and between party groups, we argue that shared constructions about gender equality are issue specific and change over time. Consensus breaks down along the left......In this article, we analyze transnational party politics in the European Union from a gender perspective. This is a subject that has been neglected both by mainstream European studies on party politics and by gender scholars who work on political parties. Drawing on the insights of these two...

  17. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Economic analysis and management of climatic risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))

    1994-01-01

    This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.

  19. Risk oriented analysis of the SNR-300

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koeberlein, K.

    1982-01-01

    The Fact Finding Committee on 'Future Nuclear Power Policy' established by the 8th German Federal Parliament in its report of June 1980 among other items published the recommendation to commission a 'risk oriented analysis' of the SNR-300 in order to enable a pragmatic comparison to be made of the safety of the German prototype fast breeder reactor and a modern light water reactor (a Biblis B PWR). The Federal Minister for Research and Technology in August 1981 officially commissioned the Gesellschaft fuer Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) to conduct the study. Following a recommendation by the Fact Finding Committee, additional studies were performed also by a group of opponents of the breeder reactor. On the instigation of the group of opponents the delivery date of the study was altered several times and finally set at April 30, 1982. GRS submitted its report by this deadline. However, a joint report by the two groups could not be compiled, as had been requested by the client, because the contributions of the opponents were not made available until mid-May 1982 and then only as an 'interim report'. In summary, the GRS study indicates that the frequency and severity of major accidents is lower for the SNR-300 at the Kalkar site than for a PWR as covered in the German Nuclear Power Plant Risk Study. (orig.) [de

  20. Climates of risk: a field analysis of global climate change in US media discourse, 1997-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnett, John

    2010-11-01

    How are industry and environmentalist discourses of climate risk related to dominant scientific and political discourses? This study operationalizes Bourdieu's concept of symbolic capital in order to map dimensions of risk description and prescription onto a journalistic field of industry, environmentalist, scientific, and political media. Results show that conventional definitions of risk mirror an opposition between scientific and political discourses. Prescriptions for action on risk are partly autonomous from definitions however. Environmentalist and scientific media feature more proactive discourse, and industry and political media feature more reactive discourse. Implications for future research on climate risk and relational studies of media discourse are discussed.

  1. Development of probabilistic risk analysis library

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soga, Shota; Kirimoto, Yukihiro; Kanda, Kenichi

    2015-01-01

    We developed a library that is designed to perform level 1 Probabilistic Risk Analysis using Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). In particular, our goal is to develop a library that will allow Japanese electric utilities to take the advantages of BDD that can solve Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) models analytically. Using BDD, the library supports negation in FT which allows more flexible modeling of ET/FT. The library is written by C++ within an object-oriented framework using open source software. The library itself is a header-only library so that Japanese electric utilities can take advantages of its transparency to speed up development and to build their own software for their specific needs. In this report, the basic capabilities of the library is briefly described. In addition, several applications of the library are demonstrated including validation of MCS evaluation of PRA model and evaluation of corrective and preventive maintenance considering common cause failure. (author)

  2. Education and Political Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massialas, Byron G.

    1977-01-01

    Considers how education is related to politics with the focus on political socialization, political recruitment, i.e., the selection and training of political elites, and political integration or nation building of groups of people. (Author/RK)

  3. Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.

    2005-01-01

    Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)

  4. Risk Analysis for Performance Improvement in a Romanian Pharmaceutical Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana Corina Deselnicu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents risk management analysis carried out to investigate the operations of a Romanian company dealing with the distribution of pharmaceutical products. The main risks challenging the company were identified, described and classified, providing a scientific base for further analysis. Then, the identified inherent risks were evaluated using tools as the risk index method and the risk matrix in order to emphasize their tolerance level. According to the results of the evaluation, risk mitigation strategies and measures were advanced for the management of the analysed risks. Relevant conclusions were drawn from the experience.

  5. When worlds collide. Social science, politics, and the Rind et al. (1998). Child sexual abuse meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lilienfeld, Scott O

    2002-03-01

    A 1998 meta-analysis by B. Rind, P. Tromovitch, and R. Bauserman in Psychological Bulletin indicated that the relations between child sexual abuse and later psychopathology were weak in magnitude. Shortly thereafter, this article was condemned by media personality Dr. Laura Schlessinger and numerous conservative organizations and was denounced by the United States Congress. In addition, the American Psychological Association (APA) distanced itself from the authors' conclusions. This incident raises questions regarding (a) authors' responsibilities concerning the reporting of politically controversial findings, (b) academic and scientific freedom, (c) the role of the APA in disabusing the public and media of logical errors and fallacies, and (d) the substantial gap between popular and academic psychology and the responsibility of the APA to narrow that gap.

  6. Genetic Analysis Aimed at the Identification of Appropriated Children: Political and Scientific Construction of “Nature” and Kinship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabina Amantze Regueiro

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with the genetic analysis aimed at the identification of children appropriated during the last Argentine military dictatorship. For this purpose, the discussions on the nature-culture dichotomy are considered, with an approach to kinship as a political construction from the searching action of Abuelas de Plaza de Mayo (Grandmothers, promoting scientific techniques for the “discovery” of the biological bond. In this sense, the forms of legal construction of families connected to the identification; the subsequent constitution of family relationships, as well as certain social effects that transcend them are also studied. In this way, it will be argued that even in cases in which kinship seems to come to an end in the blood bond, the biological aspect does not exist beyond the social and symbolic practices.

  7. An Analysis of the Factors Influencing the Political Culture of the Students of Parsabad Islamic Azad University

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammadreza Hatami

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Political culture is one of the most important phenomena of social life in modem era, with an undeniable influence on the political conduct of the members of the society. It is also one of the main pillars and principles of the growth and development of society. Belief in political equality, trust, feeling of security, and national and ethnic loyalty, are among significant elements closely related to political culture and society development pattern. The present study aims to analyze the factors influencing the political culture of the students of Parsabad Islamic Azad University. The main question addressed in this study concerns the factors which influence the political culture of the students of Parsabad Islamic Azad University. The hypotheses of the study suggest that variables such as ethnicism, religiousness, political motivation, personality and socioeconomic status have a significant relationship with political culture. The survey methodology - correlation between variables - and interview, as the means for collecting data to answer the questions, are utilized in this study. Also the statistical method and the SPPS software are used to analyze the data. The results of the study indicate that none of the hypotheses of the research was confirmed except for the relationship between the political motivation and the political culture. This shows that the temporal and spatial condition of Parsabad and, consequently, that of the students are different from the temporal and spatial conditions of the theories presented in this study.

  8. Economy and energy politic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, J.M.

    1992-01-01

    This book, divided into four parts, describes, first, energy consumption and national economy growth. In a second part, the irresistible ascent of coal, natural gas and petroleum international markets is studied. In the third part, energy politic is investigated: exchanges releasing, prices deregulation, contestation of power industry monopoly, energy national market and common energetic politic, single market concept. In the last part, global risks and world-wide regulations are given: demand, energy resources, technical changes, comparative evaluations between fossil, nuclear and renewable energies, environment, investments financing and international cooperation. 23 refs., 14 figs., 16 tabs

  9. ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT RISK IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

    OpenAIRE

    Lăpăduşi Mihaela Loredana,; Căruntu Constantin

    2009-01-01

    The risk is one of the most controversial issues for all persons involved both in domestic and international world economic affairs. The need to analyze, understand and effectively manage risk is growing, the ultimate aim being to obtain a higher degree of successThe risk means exposure to an uncertain future, the opportunity to face danger or suffering a loss ( "Risk - possibility of loss or injury", Webster's, 1995) or the chance that things go wrong ( "Risk is the change that something wil...

  10. Insurability of Cyber Risk: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Biener, Christian; Eling, Martin; Wirfs, Jan Hendrik

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the adequacy of insurance for managing cyber risk. To this end, we extract 994 cases of cyber losses from an operational risk database and analyse their statistical properties. Based on the empirical results and recent literature, we investigate the insurability of cyber risk by systematically reviewing the set of criteria introduced by Berliner (1982). Our findings emphasise the distinct characteristics of cyber risks compared with other operational risks and bring to li...

  11. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  12. Political priorities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ren, Jingzheng

    2016-01-01

    …THE POLITICAL LEADERS of the local government of Chongqing, China, vigorously promote a low-carbon economy and sustainable development to mitigate environmental pollution. Accordingly, research grants focused on this issue were supported by the government, and our group obtained a grant for a pr......…THE POLITICAL LEADERS of the local government of Chongqing, China, vigorously promote a low-carbon economy and sustainable development to mitigate environmental pollution. Accordingly, research grants focused on this issue were supported by the government, and our group obtained a grant...... for a project about industrial park planning and design.…In my view, political priorities based on correct decision-making and market requirements are beneficial for researchers....

  13. Predator Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary Louisa Cappelli

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Edward Abbey’s Desert Solitaire and Barbara Kingsolver’s Prodigal Summer urges readers to see coyotes as crucial members of the natural community whose predation is essential for the maintenance of biodiversity and ecological stability. Their cultural production provides a human story of ecocritical engagement for understanding the cascading effects of removing top predators from their ecosystems. By envisioning biocentric possibilities within place-based and scientific contexts, Edward Abbey and Barbara Kingsolver share a common theme of political ecology: political processes shape ecological conditions. A close reading of Edward Abbey’s Desert Solitaire and Barbara Kingsolver’s Prodigal Summer provides a literary entryway to connect research, arguments, and discourse across disciplines tasking readers to engage in political discussions of environmental sustainability and to consider viable solutions to preserve the ecological diversity of our predator populations and ecosystems.

  14. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

  15. Integration of risk analysis, land use planning, and cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajen, G.; Sanchez, G.

    1994-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Pueblo of San Ildefonso (Pueblo), which is a sovereign Indian tribe, have often been involved in adversarial situations regarding the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The Pueblo shares a common boundary with the LANL. This paper describes an on-going project that could alter the DOE and the Pueblo's relationship to one of cooperation; and unite the DOE and the Pueblo in a Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization, and Integrated Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning effort

  16. The impact of political culture on the functioning of democracy: analysis of ideas of Alexis de Tocqueville

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. I. Prokopchuk

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Based on the works of the French scientist A. de Tocqueville analyzed systematically constructive and destructive influence on political culture and the institutionalization of democracy in the society. In Tocqueville’s works may be divided into 2 patterns of political culture: a American liberal-democratic; b French authoritarian. Generalized thinker idea of values, based on which the American political culture of his time as follows: 1. Man put on an equal footing with the public. 2. Spread «spirit of the law» for all American society in general. 3. Understanding people, which is the main subject of politics and power source, as a combination of highly developed, independent, self-sufficient individuals. 4. Policy - one of the areas of self-realization and even for the average individual. In the system of value orientations policy covers the Americans first place or not. 5. Antypaternalizm in settings in which people, to the government and its agencies include disbelief, with potential worries, turning to government assistance only when absolutely can not do without it. 6. Social life is characterized by pluralism. In civil Sus-ety, there are many «power points» impact on the state by the parties, associations, media, opposition. 7. The political behavior of Americans is characterized by an open, constructive. A common policy is not the only type of collective participation (through parties and associations, but also individual. 8. The tendency of American political culture to the center, which was manifested in the unpopularity of political extremism as a type of political behavior on the part of leaders, parties, mass. 9. Legitimate functioning of the political opposition. This opposition political organizations in the United States in peace and enjoy his political activities only through legal means. 10. Formation of «money» elite and its deliberate removal of professions-term politics. Generalized Tocqueville features that define

  17. How Internal Political Efficacy Translates Political Knowledge Into Political Participation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichert, Frank

    2016-01-01

    This study presents evidence for the mediation effect of political knowledge through political self-efficacy (i.e. internal political efficacy) in the prediction of political participation. It employs an action theoretic approach—by and large grounded on the Theory of Planned Behaviour—and uses data from the German Longitudinal Election Study to examine whether political knowledge has distinct direct effects on voting, conventional, and/or unconventional political participation. It argues that political knowledge raises internal political efficacy and thereby indirectly increases the chance that a citizen will participate in politics. The results of mediated multiple regression analyses yield evidence that political knowledge indeed translates into internal political efficacy, thus it affects political participation of various kinds indirectly. However, internal political efficacy and intentions to participate politically yield simultaneous direct effects only on conventional political participation. Sequentially mediated effects appear for voting and conventional political participation, with political knowledge being mediated by internal political efficacy and subsequently also by behavioural intentions. The mediation patterns for unconventional political participation are less clear though. The discussion accounts for restrictions of this study and points to questions for answer by future research. PMID:27298633

  18. Corporate philanthropy, political influence, and health policy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary J Fooks

    Full Text Available The Framework Convention of Tobacco Control (FCTC provides a basis for nation states to limit the political effects of tobacco industry philanthropy, yet progress in this area is limited. This paper aims to integrate the findings of previous studies on tobacco industry philanthropy with a new analysis of British American Tobacco's (BAT record of charitable giving to develop a general model of corporate political philanthropy that can be used to facilitate implementation of the FCTC.Analysis of previously confidential industry documents, BAT social and stakeholder dialogue reports, and existing tobacco industry document studies on philanthropy.The analysis identified six broad ways in which tobacco companies have used philanthropy politically: developing constituencies to build support for policy positions and generate third party advocacy; weakening opposing political constituencies; facilitating access and building relationships with policymakers; creating direct leverage with policymakers by providing financial subsidies to specific projects; enhancing the donor's status as a source of credible information; and shaping the tobacco control agenda by shifting thinking on the importance of regulating the market environment for tobacco and the relative risks of smoking for population health. Contemporary BAT social and stakeholder reports contain numerous examples of charitable donations that are likely to be designed to shape the tobacco control agenda, secure access and build constituencies.Tobacco companies' political use of charitable donations underlines the need for tobacco industry philanthropy to be restricted via full implementation of Articles 5.3 and 13 of the FCTC. The model of tobacco industry philanthropy developed in this study can be used by public health advocates to press for implementation of the FCTC and provides a basis for analysing the political effects of charitable giving in other industry sectors which have an impact on

  19. Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives

  20. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available on two of the most important underlying factors supporting the ecosystem: productivity and hypoxia afiecting harmful algae blooms (HABs) and the rock lobsters. The risk regimes are a function of two time scales | a ‘high’ wind stress in early summer... is a condition which can lead to various negative impacts depending on the particular marine life, for instance rock lobsters stranding. The exact deflnitions of the two seasonal occurrences resulting in the risk event, ‘high’ wind stress in ‘early...

  1. The Cold War legacy of regulatory risk analysis: The Atomic Energy Commission and radiation safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boland, Joseph B.

    From its inception in 1946 the Atomic Energy Commission pioneered the use of risk analysis as a mode of regulatory rationality and political rhetoric, yet historical treatments of risk analysis nearly always overlook the important role it played in the administration of atomic energy during the early Cold War. How this absence from history has been achieved and why it characterizes most historical accounts are the subjects of Chapter II. From there, this study goes on to develop the thesis that the advent of the atomic bomb was a world-shattering event that forced the Truman administration to choose between two novel alternatives: (1) movement towards global governance based initially on cooperative control of atomic energy or (2) unsparing pursuit of nuclear superiority. I refer to these as nuclear internationalism and nuclear nationalism, respectively. Each defined a social risk hierarchy. With the triumph of nuclear nationalism, nuclear annihilation was designated the greatest risk and a strong nuclear defense the primary means of prevention. The AEC's mission in the 1950s consisted of the rapid development of a nuclear arsenal, continual improvements in weapons technologies, and the promotion of nuclear power. The agency developed a risk-based regulatory framework through its dominant position within the National Committee on Radiation Protection. It embraced a technocratic model of risk analysis whose articulation and application it controlled, largely in secret. It used this to undergird a public rhetoric of reassurance and risk minimization. In practice, safety officials adjusted exposure levels within often wide parameters and with considerable fluidity in order to prevent safety concerns from interfering with operations. Secrecy, the political climate of the time, and a lack of accountability enabled the agency to meld technical assessments with social value judgments in a manner reflective of nuclear nationalism's risk hierarchy. In the late fifties

  2. Redefining the political moment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Arvanitakis

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available On 16 February 2003, more than half a million people gathered in Sydney, Australia, as part of a global anti-war protest aimed at stopping the impending invasion of Iraq by the then US Administration. It is difficult to estimate how many millions marched on the coordinated protest, but it was by far the largest mobilization of a generation. Walking and chanting on the streets of Sydney that day, it seemed that a political moment was upon us. In a culture that rarely embraces large scale activism, millions around Australian demanded to be heard. The message was clear: if you do not hear us, we would be willing to bring down a government. The invasion went ahead, however, with the then Australian government, under the leadership of John Howard, being one of the loudest and staunchest supporters of the Bush Administrations drive to war. Within 18 months, anti-war activists struggled to have a few hundred participants take part in anti-Iraq war rallies, and the Howard Government was comfortably re-elected for another term. The political moment had come and gone, with both social commentators and many members of the public looking for a reason. While the conservative media was often the focus of analysis, this paper argues that in a time of late capitalism, the political moment is hollowed out by ‘Politics’ itself. That is to say, that formal political processes (or ‘Politics’ undermine the political practices that people participate in everyday (or ‘politics’. Drawing on an ongoing research project focusing on democracy and young people, I discuss how the concept of ’politics‘ has been destabilised and subsequently, the political moment has been displaced. This displacement has led to a re-definition of ‘political action’ and, I argue, the emergence of a different type of everyday politics.

  3. Education and the political

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korsgaard, Morten Timmermann

    This paper presents the controversial separation of education from the realm of the political as proposed by Hannah Arendt. For the sake of children and the future of the world, we must, according to Arendt, separate education from the political. If we do not do so, we not only expose our children...... to the blinding light of public existence before they are prepared for such exposure but also risk imposing on them our beliefs and prejudices, thus robbing them of the opportunity to create something new. By reading Arendt’s argumentation for the separation as developmental and temporal, Gert Biesta is able...... to claim that this separation is based on a psychological misunderstanding and that it renders children incapable of political action. I propose here that, by considering the separation instead to be a question of protection, not only can we heed the two essences of education that Arendt articulates...

  4. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixian Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

  5. Host-Country Related Risk Factors in International Construction: Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Güzin AYDOGAN

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Internationalization has been on the agenda of construction firms as a strategic option in global competition. Due to globalization every sector including the construction industry has faced with high levels of competitiveness, uncertainty, and risk. International construction involves common risks to domestic construction, as well as risks that are related to the host country. These risks have serious effects on the performance of international projects. Since the sustainable competitiveness of international contractors depends largely on the effective management of these risks, their assessment becomes vital for the success of international contractors. The main aim of this study is to analyse the risks for international construction projects that are related to the host country. Meta-analysis technique is used in order to determine these risks. This paper, therefore, reviews the literature that has been published in four most respected construction and management journals, these being; Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Journal of Management in Engineering, Construction Management and Economics, and International Journal of Project Management for the period of 2000-2010. International construction risk assessment models are also reviewed within the context of this study, since host country related risk factors were found to have serious effects on the profitability of international contractors due to literature review. As a result; political stability, law and regulations, exchange rate risk, cultural differences, inflation, expropriation, tax discrimination, language barrier, bribery and corruption, force majeure, and societal conflicts in the host country are found to be the most important risk factors in international construction. Findings of this study can be used in risk assessment models for international construction projects.

  6. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  7. ANALYSIS OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT FROM THE VIEWPOINT OF GENDER EQUALITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khatuna BERISHVILI

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Term “gender” means socially constructed roles of man and woman, which are ascribed to them according to gender marker. Thus, gender roles depend on concrete socio-economic, political and culturological context and experience influence of various factors according to race, ethnic origin, class, sexual orientation and age. Gender roles widely differ within each culture and cultures. Unlike the individual’s biological gender, the gender role can be changed. This concept implies the views, conditioned by culture, about the intellectual potentials of man and woman, their personal features and behavior. Gender, as a construct, is formed by the society, as a social model of man and woman, which determines their role and position in all the spheres of the public life. To measure gender, like other hard-to-measure events, is of importance, in order to compare the countries, to identify the problems and to try their correction. It may be said that it enables us to disclose focus of the problems and in case of existence of proper will to positively act on it. Gender is multi-component and hard to measure. Research of the gender equality problems is important for the global business. Gender is a cultural construct, within which our different cultures attach different values, roles and responsibilities to men and women. It should be mentioned that the problems of women’s rights along with other barriers impeding achievement of the gender equality, have long been significant for the leading countries of Europe and America. However, one problem still remains – barriers of the so-called “Glass Ceiling”, which impede carrier advance of the female representatives. At the same time, in the countries, being on the lower level, a woman is still considered to be a being of secondary importance, which has no right to work and, compared with a man, no equal conditions to be educated. To this are added the religious laws of Islamic countries, which

  8. The new railway tunnels of Frejus and Gothard: a political and institutional comparative analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerardo Marletto

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Projects of the two new railway transalpine tunnel of Frejus and Gothard have similar technical characteristics: an identical length (57 km, a similar cost (10 billion Euros and the existence of a highway along the same Alpine corridor. But, whilst the new Gothard is now under construction and should become operational in 2017, the new Frejus is at standstill at preliminary phases and has faced a very strong local opposition on the Italian side of the Alps. This difference can be explained by analysing the political and institutional framework of the two projects. The new Swiss tunnel is integrated into a national scheme of transport policy which is based on: the development of a new system of railway infrastructures, which features two new transalpine tunnels (the new Gothard and the Loetschberg;  the implementation of a distance-related heavy vehicle fee, which is levied on the basis of total weight, emission level and the kilometres driven; the provision of financial resources to stimulate the transfer of transalpine freight from road to railway. The approval of such a scheme started twenty years ago: it was based on a constitutional decree, implemented through several Federal acts and supported by three confirmatory referenda. The new French-Italian infrastructure is not integrated in any transport policy scheme. The new tunnel is only partially consistent with the overall goals of the European transport policy and the Transport Protocol of the Alpine Convention (which has not yet been ratified by the Italian Parliament: actually no action for modal shift is envisaged. Moreover, the new tunnel was initially supported by a structured consultative and participative procedure – based on the ‘débat public’ technique – only in France. In Italy this megaproject was not backed by an effective deliberation process, neither at the local nor the national level; on the contrary: it was considered among the strategic projects of the so

  9. Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

  10. A Roadmap of Risk Diagnostic Methods: Developing an Integrated View of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura

    2004-01-01

    ...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...

  11. Chemical risk evaluation, importance of the risk analysis framework uses: Latin America development restrictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations

  12. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

  13. Persuasion, Politeness and Relational Models

    OpenAIRE

    Jerzy Świątek

    2017-01-01

    Politeness Theory, just like Grice’s Cooperative Principle, points out that pragmatic analysis of language behaviour has to be grounded in extra-linguistic facts of social (or even biological) nature. Additionally, despite the slightly misleading label, Politeness Theory provides a sound methodology to explain some persuasive as well as politeness phenomena. In the same vein, the so called Relational Model Theory provides another theoretical framework for the explanation of persuasive phenome...

  14. Political Socialization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Himmelweit, Hilde T.

    1983-01-01

    Described are two longitudinal studies, one British, the other American, which examined the influences of varied socializing agents--e.g., family, school, peer groups--on voting behavior. The studies emphasized the hitherto unappreciated importance of the political, social, and economic climate of society and its changes on socialization. (CS)

  15. Politics 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslow, Abraham

    1977-01-01

    This article expresses some last thoughts from Abraham Maslow on his vision of humanistic psychology. He suggests that the two main problems of creating the good person and the good society are interwoven inextricably. He gives some social and political mechanisms which would enhance desirable personal growth and considers the main tasks of…

  16. Implementation Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hegland, Troels Jacob; Raakjær, Jesper

    2008-01-01

    level are supplemented or even replaced by national priorities. The chapter concludes that in order to capture the domestic politics associated with CFP implementation in Denmark, it is important to understand the policy process as a synergistic interaction between dominant interests, policy alliances...

  17. Political Rationality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solhaug, Trond; Kristensen, Niels Nørgaard

    The very idea about democracies is public participation in elections, decision-making and/or public engagement. The democratic participation distributes power among ordinary people and serve to legitimize decisions in public affairs and is a vital characteristic of a political culture.”The term...

  18. Framing politics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lecheler, S.K.

    2010-01-01

    This dissertation supplies a number of research findings that add to a theory of news framing effects, and also to the understanding of the role media effects play in political communication. We show that researchers must think more about what actually constitutes a framing effect, and that a

  19. Statistical models for competing risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sather, H.N.

    1976-08-01

    Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined

  20. Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Escuder-Bueno

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

  1. Seismic risk analysis in the German risk study phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasser, D.; Liemersdorf, J.

    1989-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German risk study for nuclear power plants, phase B. First simplified analyses in phase A of the study allowed a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported, in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behavior and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to the distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications, special results for the PWR reference plant and, finally, the influence of model uncertainties

  2. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  3. Comparative analysis of the relations between two generations of male high schoolstudents to the political leaders of Russia (based on the psychosemantic research of 2004 and 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir S. Sobkin

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the dynamics of pithy features of student attitude to the political leaders over the past 10 years in Moscow, Russia. The research data in 2004 and 2014 are based on the method of semantic differential. The research involved the high school students of 10-11 grades, Moscow, Russia (80 individuals in 2004 and 110 individuals in 2014. The students got a list of political leaders, each of them they need to evaluate by a number of semantic features (scales. In both research the same set of 33 words describing various personality traits was used. In 2004 the list of political leaders was composed of the Soviet state’s leaders and the most popular political leaders of that time. In 2014 research, the list of politicians was partially preserved and supplemented because of the changed political situation in Russia. Also the 2014 list was extended with several foreign politicians’ names. The hypothesis of the study suggests that the generation of 2014, compared with the high school students of 2004 presupposes a more simple perception structure of the political leaders. According to the results of the comparative analysis of the factors the following conclusions were made: 1 simplification of psychosemantic structure which was indicated by the decreased number of factors from 5 in 2004 to 4 in 2004, 2 in 2014 students there is no negative moral evaluation of intolerant manifestations of personality, 3 increased importance of moral characteristics in evaluating the activity and self-presentation of a political leader, 4 the value of power and intelligent characteristic increased.

  4. Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

    2014-09-01

    Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

  5. Information Communication Technology and Politics: A Synthesized Analysis of the Impacts of Information Technology on Voter Participation in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuma, Clive Katiba

    2011-01-01

    The availability of political information throughout society made possible by the evolution of contemporary information communication technology has precipitated conflicting debate regarding the effects of technology use on real life political participation. Proponents of technology argue that the use of new information technology stimulates…

  6. The Role of Ideas in Education Politics: Using Discourse Analysis To Understand Barriers To Reform in Multiethnic Cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidney, Mara S.

    2002-01-01

    Examines how the presence of multiple racial/ethnic groups complicates educational politics. Interviews with participants in education politics in four cities highlight a complex arena of problem definitions and assessment of reforms. The arena is so infused with issues of race/ethnicity that groups agreeing upon some elements of the education…

  7. Review: Joseph Patrick Ganahl, Corruption, Good Governance, and the African State: A Critical Analysis of the Political-Economic Foundations of Corruption in Sub-Saharan Africa (2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reinhart Kößler

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Review of the monograph:Joseph Patrick Ganahl, Corruption, Good Governance, and the African State: A Critical Analysis of the Political-Economic Foundations of Corruption in Sub-Saharan Africa, Potsdam: Potsdam University Press, 2013, ISBN 9783869562483, 300 pp.

  8. Towards a Response-able Pedagogy across Higher Education Institutions in Post-Apartheid South Africa: An Ethico-Political Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozalek, Vivienne; Zembylas, Michalinos

    2017-01-01

    Internationally there has been some interest in how critical pedagogies might be enabled in higher education to support transformative social agendas. Few writers, however, have theorised the ethico-political aspects of this effort from a feminist new materialist perspective. By focusing on the analysis of an inter-institutional collaborative…

  9. Similar or Different?: A Comparative Analysis of Higher Education Research in Political Science and International Relations between the United States of America and the United Kingdom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Alasdair

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on the nature of the writing in 73 articles published in six U.S. and U.K. political science and international relations journals that focus on teaching and learning. A comparative analysis is made of the articles through a review of the characteristics of the authors, the themes researched, the analytical focus, the research…

  10. RISK ANALYSIS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATION OUTSOURCING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmir Parada Vasques Prado

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This research aims at evaluating the risk analysis process in Information Technology and Communication (ICT outsourcing conducted by organizations of the private sector. The research is characterized by being a descriptive, quantitative and transversal type study, which was used the survey method. Data were collected through questionnaire, the sample is not random and we used a convenience sampling process. The research made contributions to understanding the risk analysis process in ICT services outsourcing, and identified statistically significant relationships between risk analysis, organization's size and its industry, and between risk analysis and diversity of outsourced services

  11. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  12. Application of risk-based value-impact analysis in a nuclear regulatory environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dinnie, Keith; Land, Ronald; Stella, Mark

    1992-01-01

    Value-impact analysis (VIA) is a quantitative process that examines the benefits of proposed actions and the costs of implementing those actions to determine the potential for a net beneficial result. There is a point beyond which efforts to improve nuclear plant safety by implementing design changes will be unjustifiably expensive for the societal benefits obtained. Resources that would be used to obtain marginal improvements in public safety can then be used to obtain greater benefits for society in other areas. VIA can help to identify this point. What can not be accomplished by VIA is the definition of the level of risk (or safety) above which cost-benefit considerations are not applicable. This must be established separately, by political action or through promulgation of acceptable risk levels and safety goals by regulatory agencies. 18 refs

  13. A comparative analysis of risk and quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynette, Jennifer Elyse

    2017-01-01

    Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk is....... This understanding can serve to facilitate more informed and effective decision making that incorporates both risk and quality before, during, and after emergency events....... independently, decision making and judgement processes have the potential to be positively impacted by furthering research and developing a deeper understanding of these constructs. By understanding risk management principles and combining that with a quality systems approach, decision making can be improved......Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk...

  14. ``Political'' Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berzak Hopkins, Laura

    2013-03-01

    Politics and policy affect all of us, both as scientists and as citizens, and issues ranging from laboratory budgets to arms control treaties clearly require research problem-solving skills and technical expertise. There is a critical role for scientists in each aspect of the political system, and in fact, we as a society need more scientists to take part in politics. Furthermore, the research we pursue has important societal applications and is fascinating! We have a right and a responsibility to share our scientific knowledge not only with each other, but with the general public as well. So, why are we as a community of scientists reticent in the public arena, hesitant to enter politics, and even at times unsupportive of our peers who transition into governmental roles? In this time of fiscal constraint, when difficult research funding (and de-funding) choices are regularly being made, we as scientists must step up to the plate, reach across the aisle, and explain why what we do is fascinating, inspiring, and important, not just to us, but to society as a whole. A range of policy-relevant roles exists inside and outside the laboratory, such as Congressional Fellowships. Each year the Congressional Fellowships program brings together approximately thirty scientists at all stages of their careers to serve as scientific advisors in a variety of offices in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. Although the jump from lab to lobbying meetings can be frustrating, the transition can also be intriguing. Firsthand experience with the ``how'' and ``why'' (or lack thereof) of politics and policy is invaluable and provides a unique opportunity to expand and broaden one's background. The opportunity to work on Capitol Hill is unparalleled, particularly because our nation has a definite need for scientists with the inclination and interest to inform and develop policy. But, whatever role you decide to take, from contributing scientific news to local publications to

  15. News framing and public opinion: A mediation analysis of framing effects on political attitudes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lecheler, S.K.; de Vreese, C.H.

    2012-01-01

    There is no satisfactory account of the psychological processes that mediate a news framing effect. Based on an experimental study (N = 1,537), this article presents a mediation analysis of a news framing effect on opinion, testing for two important mediation processes: belief importance and belief

  16. Commemoration in crisis: A discursive analysis of who 'we' and 'they' have been or become in ceremonial political speeches before and during the Greek financial downturn.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gkinopoulos, Theofilos; Hegarty, Peter

    2018-02-17

    This study analyses the discourse of statements of the leaders of two Greek political parties commemorating the restoration of Greek democracy on 24 July 1974; the ruling party New Democracy and the opposition, Coalition of the Radical Left. We focus on how these leaders act as entrepreneurs of their identities by constructing their ingroups in broad or narrow terms and their outgroups in vague or specific terms. These constructions were ventured during a period of relative political stability (2008) and instability (2012), and we focus on how ingroup prototypes and group boundaries are narrated across Greece's past, present and future in ambiguous or concrete terms. The study aligns the social identity approach to political leadership with studies on political discourse and 'the rhetoric of we'. We view commemorative statements as historical charters and respond to calls for discourse analysis to take greater account of historical context. The findings suggest concrete hypotheses about how leaders with different amounts of political support might define, as identity entrepreneurs, who 'we' are, and who 'we' are not in democratic contexts marked by stability or crisis. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

  17. Exploring Women's Understanding of Politics, Political Contestation ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Exploring Women's Understanding of Politics, Political Contestation and Gender ... First, researchers will explore women's political leadership and the extent to ... Sign up now for IDRC news and views sent directly to your inbox each month.

  18. Political participation in European welfare states: Does social investment matter?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marx, Paul; Nguyen, Christoph

    2018-01-01

    The role of the welfare state has expanded beyond passive assistance and decommodificaton. In many countries, social investment policies now actively encourage (re)integration into the labour market. While the effectiveness of these policies is debated, we know even less about their broader social...... and political effects. In this contribution, we explore the impact of social investment policies on one key aspect of social life: political participation. Combining insights from social psychology with institutional analysis, we investigate the impact of three social investment policies (early childhood...... education, secondary education, active labour market policies) on two disadvantaged groups: young individuals from low-skill backgrounds; and single parents. Combining the European Social Survey with data on social investment, we find that these risk groups have reduced political efficacy and political...

  19. Economic Growth as a Factor of Political Stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Анна Олеговна Ярославцева

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes actual problems of the impact of economic growth on the political stability of different state. The author shows that despite the undoubted correlation of the level of economic development and political stability, economic growth by itself is not a panacea for destabilization risks because of the effects of inflated expectations and transformations of social consciousness. The author argues that the impact of economic growth on political stability is largely ambivalent. On the basis of “Tocqueville's law” and the range of theories of “relative deprivation”, the author makes a conclusion about the principal limitations of predictive and interpretive capabilities of economic indicators (primarily economic growth for the analysis of political stability.

  20. Underground Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galis, Vasilis; Summerton, Jane

    Public spaces are often contested sites involving the political use of sociomaterial arrangements to check, control and filter the flow of people (see Virilio 1977, 1996). Such arrangements can include configurations of state-of-the-art policing technologies for delineating and demarcating borders...... status updates on identity checks at the metro stations in Stockholm and reports on locations and time of ticket controls for warning travelers. Thus the attempts by authorities to exert control over the (spatial) arena of the underground is circumvented by the effective developing of an alternative...... infrastructural "underground" consisting of assemblages of technologies, activists, immigrants without papers, texts and emails, homes, smart phones and computers. Investigating the embedded politics of contested spatial arrangements as characteristic of specific societies one can discover not only the uses...

  1. Placing the public library – a comparative analysis of political perceptions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Evjen, Sunniva

    2012-01-01

    This thesis explores politicians’ perceptions of the public library and public library development. While many call for a redefined vision for public libraries, eye-catching libraries are built in major cities around the world. What library visions are expressed through such projects? I attempt...... to discern how local politicians view the role of the public library, and how do they want to develop it in their local context, using concepts from institutional theory in the analysis. The research questions include issues concerning norms politicians connect with public libraries compared with those...... and document analysis of local and national policy documents. One important premise for this study has been to find cases where there are on-going developments; in the shape of main library construction. The findings show that politicians have extensive knowledge about the norms and values found...

  2. Political Epistemology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, David Budtz

    2011-01-01

    This dissertation is intended to establish a framework for a revised picture of the loci of epistemic preferences in our complex knowledge-based society. In what ways do institutions, policies and regulations determine the conditions under which knowledge is produced and justified? This dissertat......? This dissertation argues that we can identify multiple epistemic preferences in the institutional and political settings that govern the production and distribution of knowledge....

  3. Risk analysis in transport and logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ene Andreea Bianca

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization and production concentration have led to more efficient supply chain networks, which has led to the emergence of different types of risks. Although most companies have implemented special risk management programs, there may be events that can not be controlled by businesses, and unwanted consequences are not delayed.

  4. Applications of probabilistic risk analysis in nuclear criticality safety design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    Many documents have been prepared that try to define the scope of the criticality analysis and that suggest adding probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to the deterministic safety analysis. The report of the US Department of Energy (DOE) AL 5481.1B suggested that an accident is credible if the occurrence probability is >1 x 10 -6 /yr. The draft DOE 5480 safety analysis report suggested that safety analyses should include the application of methods such as deterministic safety analysis, risk assessment, reliability engineering, common-cause failure analysis, human reliability analysis, and human factor safety analysis techniques. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) report NRC SG830.110 suggested that major safety analysis methods should include but not be limited to risk assessment, reliability engineering, and human factor safety analysis. All of these suggestions have recommended including PRA in the traditional criticality analysis

  5. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  6. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  7. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  8. Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Muns (Sander)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence

  9. Analysis and management of risks experienced in tunnel construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cagatay Pamukcu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, first of all, the definitions of "risk", "risk analysis", "risk assessment" and "risk management" were made to avoid any confusions about these terms and significance of risk analysis and management in engineering projects was emphasized. Then, both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques were mentioned and within the scope of the study, Event Tree Analysis method was selected in order to analyze the risks regarding TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine operations in tunnel construction. After all hazards that would be encountered during tunnel construction by TBM method had been investigated, those hazards were undergoing a Preliminary Hazard Analysis to sort out and prioritize the risks with high scores. When the risk scores were taken into consideration, it was seen that the hazards with high risk scores could be classified into 4 groups which are excavation + support induced accidents, accidents stemming from geologic conditions, auxiliary works, and project contract. According to these four classified groups of initiating events, Event Tree Analysis was conducted by taking into care 4 countermeasures apart from each other. Finally, the quantitative and qualitative consequences of Event Tree Analyses, which were undertaken for all initiating events, were investigated and interpreted together by making comparisons and referring to previous studies.

  10. Perception and acceptance of technological risk sources. Volume 2. Empirical analysis of risk perception and acceptance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O

    1981-01-01

    Volume 2 presents a comparative investigation of risk perception and acceptance. It contains the evaluations of the two experiments in social psychology and the analysis of two intensive inquiries concerning risk perception with a view to 12 different risk sources. The data of the two inquiries were acquired from a total of 200 interview partners in two cities in North-Rhine Westphalia.

  11. Politics out of the History of Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Sartori

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Wendy Brown’s approach in Politics out of History is characterized by an attempt to analyze the presence of the past which can be read not only under the light of Nietzsche’s legacy, but also through a comparison with Hannah Arendt’s conception of the gap between the past and the future. Like Arendt, Brown aims to look at the present as the site of politics and freedom, even though the former conceives the break with tradition as the unavoidable starting point, while the latter assumes that that break is not fully accomplished because it was not recognized. Rather, it produces Wounded Attachments whose effect is that of limiting the possibility of left criticism. Moving from this parallel, Brown’s analysis is compared to the Italian philosophy of sexual difference, stressing their common interest in thinking freedom beyond a female identity built on a presumed common oppression.

  12. Domestic Politics and Nuclear Proliferation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Chul Min; Yim, Man Sung

    2016-01-01

    The external security threat is known as the most important factor of nuclear weapons program, the domestic politics situation can also affect the nuclear proliferation decision of a country. For example, when a leader wants nuclear weapons as an ultimate weapon, the domestic politics situation can determine the effectiveness of the weapons program of a country. This study analyzes the current knowledge of the relationship between domestic politics and nuclear proliferation and suggests the main challenges of the quantitative models trying to calculate nuclear proliferation risk of countries. The domestic politics status is one of the most important indicators of nuclear program. However, some variables have never been used in quantitative analyses; for example, number of veto players and the public opinion on nuclear weapons; despite they are considered to be important in various qualitative studies. Future studies should focus on how should they be coded and how can they be linked with existing domestic politics variables

  13. Domestic Politics and Nuclear Proliferation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Chul Min; Yim, Man Sung [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The external security threat is known as the most important factor of nuclear weapons program, the domestic politics situation can also affect the nuclear proliferation decision of a country. For example, when a leader wants nuclear weapons as an ultimate weapon, the domestic politics situation can determine the effectiveness of the weapons program of a country. This study analyzes the current knowledge of the relationship between domestic politics and nuclear proliferation and suggests the main challenges of the quantitative models trying to calculate nuclear proliferation risk of countries. The domestic politics status is one of the most important indicators of nuclear program. However, some variables have never been used in quantitative analyses; for example, number of veto players and the public opinion on nuclear weapons; despite they are considered to be important in various qualitative studies. Future studies should focus on how should they be coded and how can they be linked with existing domestic politics variables.

  14. A Big Social Media Data Study of the 2017 German Federal Election Based on Social Set Analysis of Political Party Facebook Pages with SoSeVi

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flesch, Benjamin; Vatrapu, Ravi; Mukkamala, Raghava Rao

    2017-01-01

    We present a big social media data study that comprises of 1 million individuals who interact with Facebook pages of the seven major political parties CDU, CSU, SPD, FDP, Greens, Die Linke and AfD during the 2017 German federal election. Our study uses the Social Set Analysis (SSA) approach, which...... is based on the sociology of associations, mathematics of set theory, and advanced visual analytics of event studies. We illustrate the capabilities of SSA through the most recent version of our Social Set Analysis (SoSeVi) tool, which enables us to deep dive into Facebook activity concerning the election....... We explore a significant gender-based difference between female and male interactions with political party Facebook pages. Furthermore, we perform a multi-faceted analysis of social media interactions using gender detection, user segmentation and retention analysis, and visualize our findings...

  15. Implementation of a participatory management model: analysis from a political perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernardes, Andrea; G Cummings, Greta; Gabriel, Carmen Silvia; Martinez Évora, Yolanda Dora; Gomes Maziero, Vanessa; Coleman-Miller, Glenda

    2015-10-01

    To analyse experiences of managers and nursing staff in the implementation of participatory management, specifically processes of decision-making, communication and power in a Canadian hospital. Implementing a Participatory Management Model involves change because it is focused on the needs of patients and encourages decentralisation of power and shared decisions. The study design is qualitative using observational sessions and content analysis for data analysis. We used Bolman and Deal's four-frame theoretical framework to interpret our findings. Participatory management led to advances in care, because it allowed for more dialogue and shared decision making. However, the biggest challenge has been that all major changes are still being decided centrally by the provincial executive board. Managers and directors are facing difficulties related to this change process, such as the resistance to change by some employees and limited input to decision-making affecting their areas of responsibility; however, they and their teams are working to utilise the values and principles underlying participatory management in their daily work practices. Innovative management models encourage accountability, increased motivation and satisfaction of nursing staff, and improve the quality of care. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. The political attack ad

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Palma Peña-Jiménez, Ph.D.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available During election campaigns the political spot has a clear objective: to win votes. This message is communicated to the electorate through television and Internet, and usually presents a negative approach, which includes a direct critical message against the opponent, rather than an exposition of proposals. This article is focused on the analysis of the campaign attack video ad purposely created to encourage the disapproval of the political opponent among voters. These ads focus on discrediting the opponent, many times, through the transmission of ad hominem messages, instead of disseminating the potential of the political party and the virtues and manifesto of its candidate. The article reviews the development of the attack ad since its first appearance, which in Spain dates back to 1996, when the famous Doberman ad was broadcast, and examines the most memorable campaign attack ads.

  17. Politics at the interface

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kannabiran, Gobinaath; Petersen, Marianne Graves

    2010-01-01

    At the birth of participatory design, there was a strong political consciousness surrounding the design of new technology, the design process in particular, establishing a rich set of methods and tools for user-centered design. Today, the term design has extended its scope of concern beyond...... the process of design and into how users interact with the designed product on a day-to-day basis. This paper is an attempt to call to attention the need for a new set of methods, attitudes and approaches, along with the existing, to discuss, analyze and reflect upon the politics at the interface....... By presenting a critical analysis of two design cases, we elicit the importance of such an agenda and the implications for design in doing so. We use the Foucauldian notion of power to analyze the power relationships in these two cases and to articulate the politics at the interface. We conclude by emphasizing...

  18. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-04-01

    OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

  20. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)