WorldWideScience

Sample records for political observers predicted

  1. Does sociability predict civic involvement and political participation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foschi, Renato; Lauriola, Marco

    2014-02-01

    In contemporary history as well as in political science, a strong associational life known as sociability is thought to explain the roots of modern democracy by establishing a link between the increasing availability of free time to the middle classes, increasing willingness to gather with others in circles or associations, and increasing social capital. In personality psychology, sociability is related to prosocial behavior (i.e., the need for affiliation, agreeableness, openness, and extraversion), whose importance in different political behaviors is increasingly recognized. In the present article, we carried out 5 studies (N = 1,429) that showed that political and associative sociability (a) can be reliably assessed, can have cross-cultural validity, and are properly associated with general social interest measures and personality domains and facets in the five-factor model; (b) do not overlap with similar concepts used in political psychology to account for political participation (political expertise, political interest, political self-efficacy); and (c) predicted political and nonpolitical group membership as well as observable choices in decision-making tasks with political and nonpolitical outcomes. The results are discussed, taking into consideration the extent to which specific facets of sociability can mediate between general personality traits and measures of civic involvement and political participation in a holistic model of political behavior. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  2. The Prediction of Political Competencies by Political Action and Political Media Consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichert, Frank

    2014-01-01

    Political competencies are often considered a precondition for political action; however, they are not independent of previous political participation, which may also include the frequency and the kind of political media consumption. My research aims at finding out the importance of participation in political activities in the past, as well as…

  3. Political extremism predicts belief in conspiracy theories

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Prooijen, J.W.; Krouwel, A.P.M.; Pollet, T. V.

    2015-01-01

    Historical records suggest that the political extremes—at both the “left” and the “right”—substantially endorsed conspiracy beliefs about other-minded groups. The present contribution empirically tests whether extreme political ideologies, at either side of the political spectrum, are positively

  4. Precisely predictable Dirac observables

    CERN Document Server

    Cordes, Heinz Otto

    2006-01-01

    This work presents a "Clean Quantum Theory of the Electron", based on Dirac’s equation. "Clean" in the sense of a complete mathematical explanation of the well known paradoxes of Dirac’s theory, and a connection to classical theory, including the motion of a magnetic moment (spin) in the given field, all for a charged particle (of spin ½) moving in a given electromagnetic field. This theory is relativistically covariant, and it may be regarded as a mathematically consistent quantum-mechanical generalization of the classical motion of such a particle, à la Newton and Einstein. Normally, our fields are time-independent, but also discussed is the time-dependent case, where slightly different features prevail. A "Schroedinger particle", such as a light quantum, experiences a very different (time-dependent) "Precise Predictablity of Observables". An attempt is made to compare both cases. There is not the Heisenberg uncertainty of location and momentum; rather, location alone possesses a built-in uncertainty ...

  5. Ensemble-based Regional Climate Prediction: Political Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miguel, E.; Dykema, J.; Satyanath, S.; Anderson, J. G.

    2008-12-01

    Accurate forecasts of regional climate, including temperature and precipitation, have significant implications for human activities, not just economically but socially. Sub Saharan Africa is a region that has displayed an exceptional propensity for devastating civil wars. Recent research in political economy has revealed a strong statistical relationship between year to year fluctuations in precipitation and civil conflict in this region in the 1980s and 1990s. To investigate how climate change may modify the regional risk of civil conflict in the future requires a probabilistic regional forecast that explicitly accounts for the community's uncertainty in the evolution of rainfall under anthropogenic forcing. We approach the regional climate prediction aspect of this question through the application of a recently demonstrated method called generalized scalar prediction (Leroy et al. 2009), which predicts arbitrary scalar quantities of the climate system. This prediction method can predict change in any variable or linear combination of variables of the climate system averaged over a wide range spatial scales, from regional to hemispheric to global. Generalized scalar prediction utilizes an ensemble of model predictions to represent the community's uncertainty range in climate modeling in combination with a timeseries of any type of observational data that exhibits sensitivity to the scalar of interest. It is not necessary to prioritize models in deriving with the final prediction. We present the results of the application of generalized scalar prediction for regional forecasts of temperature and precipitation and Sub Saharan Africa. We utilize the climate predictions along with the established statistical relationship between year-to-year rainfall variability in Sub Saharan Africa to investigate the potential impact of climate change on civil conflict within that region.

  6. Overview and observations: Workshop on the politics of digital ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Overview and observations: Workshop on the politics of digital initiatives concerning africa,August 4-5,2006. A Kagan. Abstract. No Abstract. Innovation Vol.34 () 2007: pp. 4-11. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT. Article Metrics. Metrics Loading ... Metrics ...

  7. Political conservatism predicts asymmetries in emotional scene memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Mark; Gonzalez, Frank J; Giuseffi, Karl; Sievert, Benjamin; Smith, Kevin B; Hibbing, John R; Dodd, Michael D

    2016-06-01

    Variation in political ideology has been linked to differences in attention to and processing of emotional stimuli, with stronger responses to negative versus positive stimuli (negativity bias) the more politically conservative one is. As memory is enhanced by attention, such findings predict that memory for negative versus positive stimuli should similarly be enhanced the more conservative one is. The present study tests this prediction by having participants study 120 positive, negative, and neutral scenes in preparation for a subsequent memory test. On the memory test, the same 120 scenes were presented along with 120 new scenes and participants were to respond whether a scene was old or new. Results on the memory test showed that negative scenes were more likely to be remembered than positive scenes, though, this was true only for political conservatives. That is, a larger negativity bias was found the more conservative one was. The effect was sizeable, explaining 45% of the variance across subjects in the effect of emotion. These findings demonstrate that the relationship between political ideology and asymmetries in emotion processing extend to memory and, furthermore, suggest that exploring the extent to which subject variation in interactions among emotion, attention, and memory is predicted by conservatism may provide new insights into theories of political ideology. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  8. Learning Political Science with Prediction Markets: An Experimental Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Cali Mortenson; Sami, Rahul

    2012-01-01

    Prediction markets are designed to aggregate the information of many individuals to forecast future events. These markets provide participants with an incentive to seek information and a forum for interaction, making markets a promising tool to motivate student learning. We carried out a quasi-experiment in an introductory political science class…

  9. Radon observation for earthquake prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wakita, Hiroshi [Tokyo Univ. (Japan)

    1998-12-31

    Systematic observation of groundwater radon for the purpose of earthquake prediction began in Japan in late 1973. Continuous observations are conducted at fixed stations using deep wells and springs. During the observation period, significant precursory changes including the 1978 Izu-Oshima-kinkai (M7.0) earthquake as well as numerous coseismic changes were observed. At the time of the 1995 Kobe (M7.2) earthquake, significant changes in chemical components, including radon dissolved in groundwater, were observed near the epicentral region. Precursory changes are presumably caused by permeability changes due to micro-fracturing in basement rock or migration of water from different sources during the preparation stage of earthquakes. Coseismic changes may be caused by seismic shaking and by changes in regional stress. Significant drops of radon concentration in groundwater have been observed after earthquakes at the KSM site. The occurrence of such drops appears to be time-dependent, and possibly reflects changes in the regional stress state of the observation area. The absence of radon drops seems to be correlated with periods of reduced regional seismic activity. Experience accumulated over the two past decades allows us to reach some conclusions: 1) changes in groundwater radon do occur prior to large earthquakes; 2) some sites are particularly sensitive to earthquake occurrence; and 3) the sensitivity changes over time. (author)

  10. A multi-source, multi-study investigation of job performance prediction by political skill

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blickle, G.; Ferris, G.R.; Munyon, T.P.

    2011-01-01

    -sectional and longitudinal designs, this research tested the hypotheses that employee political skill, measured from the perspective of employees' assessor A, will positively predict job performance rated by assessor B (i.e. Hypothesis 1a), and vice versa, that employee political skill measured by assessor B will predict...

  11. Fear among the extremes: how political ideology predicts negative emotions and outgroup derogation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Prooijen, Jan-Willem; Krouwel, André P M; Boiten, Max; Eendebak, Lennart

    2015-04-01

    The "rigidity of the right" hypothesis predicts that particularly the political right experiences fear and derogates outgroups. We propose that above and beyond that, the political extremes (at both sides of the spectrum) are more likely to display these responses than political moderates. Results of a large-scale sample reveal the predicted quadratic term on socio-economic fear. Moreover, although the political right is more likely to derogate the specific category of immigrants, we find a quadratic effect on derogation of a broad range of societal categories. Both extremes also experience stronger negative emotions about politics than politically moderate respondents. Finally, the quadratic effects on derogation of societal groups and negative political emotions were mediated by socio-economic fear, particularly among left- and right-wing extremists. It is concluded that negative emotions and outgroup derogation flourish among the extremes. © 2015 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

  12. Different meanings of the social dominance orientation concept: predicting political attitudes over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jetten, Jolanda; Iyer, Aarti

    2010-06-01

    We examined predictors of political attitude change by assessing the independent and interactive effect of social dominance orientation (SDO) as a context-dependent versus an individual difference construct. In a longitudinal study, British students' political orientation was assessed before entering university (T1) and after being at university for 2 months (T2) and 6 months (T3; N=109). Results showed that initial SDO (T1) did not predict political attitudes change nor did it predict self-selected entry into course with hierarchy enhancing or hierarchy-attenuating ideologies. More support was obtained for a contextually determined model whereby SDO (T2) mediated the relationship between social class (T1) and political attitude change (T3). We also found support for mediated moderation in accounting for effects of initial SDO on political attitude change. Findings suggest that SDO as a concept that is sensitive to group dynamics is best suited to explain shifts in political attitudes.

  13. Menstrual cycle phase does not predict political conservatism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Isabel M; Pound, Nicholas

    2015-01-01

    Recent authors have reported a relationship between women's fertility status, as indexed by menstrual cycle phase, and conservatism in moral, social and political values. We conducted a survey to test for the existence of a relationship between menstrual cycle day and conservatism. 2213 women reporting regular menstrual cycles provided data about their political views. Of these women, 2208 provided information about their cycle date, 1260 provided additional evidence of reliability in self-reported cycle date, and of these, 750 also indicated an absence of hormonal disruptors such as recent hormonal contraception use, breastfeeding or pregnancy. Cycle day was used to estimate day-specific fertility rate (probability of conception); political conservatism was measured via direct self-report and via responses to the "Moral Foundations" questionnaire. We also recorded relationship status, which has been reported to interact with menstrual cycle phase in determining political preferences. We found no evidence of a relationship between estimated cyclical fertility changes and conservatism, and no evidence of an interaction between relationship status and cyclical fertility in determining political attitudes. Our findings were robust to multiple inclusion/exclusion criteria and to different methods of estimating fertility and measuring conservatism. In summary, the relationship between cycle-linked reproductive parameters and conservatism may be weaker or less reliable than previously thought.

  14. Menstrual cycle phase does not predict political conservatism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel M Scott

    Full Text Available Recent authors have reported a relationship between women's fertility status, as indexed by menstrual cycle phase, and conservatism in moral, social and political values. We conducted a survey to test for the existence of a relationship between menstrual cycle day and conservatism. 2213 women reporting regular menstrual cycles provided data about their political views. Of these women, 2208 provided information about their cycle date, 1260 provided additional evidence of reliability in self-reported cycle date, and of these, 750 also indicated an absence of hormonal disruptors such as recent hormonal contraception use, breastfeeding or pregnancy. Cycle day was used to estimate day-specific fertility rate (probability of conception; political conservatism was measured via direct self-report and via responses to the "Moral Foundations" questionnaire. We also recorded relationship status, which has been reported to interact with menstrual cycle phase in determining political preferences. We found no evidence of a relationship between estimated cyclical fertility changes and conservatism, and no evidence of an interaction between relationship status and cyclical fertility in determining political attitudes. Our findings were robust to multiple inclusion/exclusion criteria and to different methods of estimating fertility and measuring conservatism. In summary, the relationship between cycle-linked reproductive parameters and conservatism may be weaker or less reliable than previously thought.

  15. Does extreme political ideology predict conspiracy beliefs, economic evaluations and political trust? Evidence from Sweden

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krouwel, Andre; Kutiyski, Yordan; van Prooijena, Jan Willem; Martinsson, Johan; Markstedt, Elias

    2018-01-01

    A large volume of academic research has demonstrated that individuals who profess radical political ideology, both left- and right-wing, tend to share similar underlying psychological patterns. By utilizing data collected through a voting advice application in Sweden, this study aims to assess

  16. Climate change: Conflict of observational science, theory, and politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerhard, L.C.

    2004-01-01

    Debate over whether human activity causes Earth climate change obscures the immensity of the dynamic systems that create and maintain climate on the planet. Anthropocentric debate leads people to believe that they can alter these planetary dynamic systems to prevent that they perceive as negative climate impacts on human civilization. Although politicians offer simplistic remedies, such as the Kyoto Protocol, global climate continues to change naturally. Better planning for the inevitable dislocations that have followed natural global climate changes throughout human history requires us to accept the fact that climate will change, and that human society must adapt to the changes. Over the last decade, the scientific literature reported a shift in emphasis from attempting to build theoretical models of putative human impacts on climate to understanding the planetwide dynamic processes that are the natural climate drivers. The current scientific literature is beginning to report the history of past climate change, the extent of natural climate variability, natural system drivers, and the episodicity of many climate changes. The scientific arguments have broadened from focus upon human effects on climate to include the array of natural phenomena that have driven global climate change for eons. However, significant political issues with long-term social consequences continue their advance. This paper summarizes recent scientific progress in climate science and arguments about human influence on climate. ?? 2004. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

  17. Political complexity predicts the spread of ethnolinguistic groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, Thomas E.; Mace, Ruth

    2009-01-01

    Human languages show a remarkable degree of variation in the area they cover. However, the factors governing the distribution of human cultural groups such as languages are not well understood. While previous studies have examined the role of a number of environmental variables the importance of cultural factors has not been systematically addressed. Here we use a geographical information system (GIS) to integrate information about languages with environmental, ecological, and ethnographic data to test a number of hypotheses that have been proposed to explain the global distribution of languages. We show that the degree of political complexity and type of subsistence strategy exhibited by societies are important predictors of the area covered by a language. Political complexity is also strongly associated with the latitudinal gradient in language area, whereas subsistence strategy is not. We argue that a process of cultural group selection favoring more complex societies may have been important in shaping the present-day global distribution of language diversity. PMID:19380740

  18. Neuroelectrical Correlates of Trustworthiness and Dominance Judgments Related to the Observation of Political Candidates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Vecchiato

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The present research investigates the neurophysiological activity elicited by fast observations of faces of real candidates during simulated political elections. We used simultaneous recording of electroencephalographic (EEG signals as well as galvanic skin response (GSR and heart rate (HR as measurements of central and autonomic nervous systems. Twenty healthy subjects were asked to give judgments on dominance, trustworthiness, and a preference of vote related to the politicians’ faces. We used high-resolution EEG techniques to map statistical differences of power spectral density (PSD cortical activity onto a realistic head model as well as partial directed coherence (PDC and graph theory metrics to estimate the functional connectivity networks and investigate the role of cortical regions of interest (ROIs. Behavioral results revealed that judgment of dominance trait is the most predictive of the outcome of the simulated elections. Statistical comparisons related to PSD and PDC values highlighted an asymmetry in the activation of frontal cortical areas associated with the valence of the judged trait as well as to the probability to cast the vote. Overall, our results highlight the existence of cortical EEG features which are correlated with the prediction of vote and with the judgment of trustworthy and dominant faces.

  19. Political astronomy: Comet and meteor observations by Muslim historians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chander Kapoor, Ramesh

    2015-08-01

    Eclipses and unexpected phenomena like comets, meteors, novae and earthquakes were viewed among various cultures as violating the established order of the heavens. They were considered to be ill omens for kings and emperors and were routinely monitored. The present work looks into the texts of history and literature by Muslim historians and chroniclers in West Asia and India that carry stray references to such phenomena. The accounts often relate the apparitions to specific disastrous events or prognosticate revolts, deaths, epidemics, earthquakes all that that took place in later times. Obviously, the occurrences interested the astrologers more. Comet appearances would last for days and weeks but nearly all the writings lack sequential observations. Meteor showers are annual features but the Islamic calendar being lunar would not easily lead one to notice periodic nature of the incidents, let alone sensing a periodicity in comet appearances. These are non-astronomy texts with little scientific content but being from different ages permit us to see how the astronomical perceptions changed over the times. The recorded details and firm chronology, tested against modern back calculations, can provide valuable information on them, keeping in mind the text and the context in which the original reference was made. We also notice a qualitative change in the Indian writings of the 18th century and later where the authors begin to show up with influence of exposure to the European scientific progress.

  20. Getting to grips with election night forecasting: Predicting the unpredictable world of politics

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Holloway, Jennifer P

    2009-04-23

    Full Text Available , it is an exhilarating experience being at the IEC's headquarters during the elections. "The whole building is abuzz, with political parties and media representatives all having their own booths and swarming around the floor. We have found that the smaller parties... with. Election night forecasting Predicting the unpredictable world of politics On 22 April 2009, after the voting population has used its right to cast its individual votes in the fourth democratic elections of South Africa, a team...

  1. The Political Gender Gap: Gender Bias in Facial Inferences that Predict Voting Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiao, Joan Y.; Bowman, Nicholas E.; Gill, Harleen

    2008-01-01

    Background Throughout human history, a disproportionate degree of political power around the world has been held by men. Even in democracies where the opportunity to serve in top political positions is available to any individual elected by the majority of their constituents, most of the highest political offices are occupied by male leaders. What psychological factors underlie this political gender gap? Contrary to the notion that people use deliberate, rational strategies when deciding whom to vote for in major political elections, research indicates that people use shallow decision heuristics, such as impressions of competence solely from a candidate's facial appearance, when deciding whom to vote for. Because gender has previously been shown to affect a number of inferences made from the face, here we investigated the hypothesis that gender of both voter and candidate affects the kinds of facial impressions that predict voting behavior. Methodology/Principal Finding Male and female voters judged a series of male and female political candidates on how competent, dominant, attractive and approachable they seemed based on their facial appearance. Then they saw a series of pairs of political candidates and decided which politician they would vote for in a hypothetical election for President of the United States. Results indicate that both gender of voter and candidate affect the kinds of facial impressions that predict voting behavior. All voters are likely to vote for candidates who appear more competent. However, male candidates that appear more approachable and female candidates who appear more attractive are more likely to win votes. In particular, men are more likely to vote for attractive female candidates whereas women are more likely to vote for approachable male candidates. Conclusions/Significance Here we reveal gender biases in the intuitive heuristics that voters use when deciding whom to vote for in major political elections. Our findings underscore

  2. The political gender gap: gender bias in facial inferences that predict voting behavior.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joan Y Chiao

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Throughout human history, a disproportionate degree of political power around the world has been held by men. Even in democracies where the opportunity to serve in top political positions is available to any individual elected by the majority of their constituents, most of the highest political offices are occupied by male leaders. What psychological factors underlie this political gender gap? Contrary to the notion that people use deliberate, rational strategies when deciding whom to vote for in major political elections, research indicates that people use shallow decision heuristics, such as impressions of competence solely from a candidate's facial appearance, when deciding whom to vote for. Because gender has previously been shown to affect a number of inferences made from the face, here we investigated the hypothesis that gender of both voter and candidate affects the kinds of facial impressions that predict voting behavior. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDING: Male and female voters judged a series of male and female political candidates on how competent, dominant, attractive and approachable they seemed based on their facial appearance. Then they saw a series of pairs of political candidates and decided which politician they would vote for in a hypothetical election for President of the United States. Results indicate that both gender of voter and candidate affect the kinds of facial impressions that predict voting behavior. All voters are likely to vote for candidates who appear more competent. However, male candidates that appear more approachable and female candidates who appear more attractive are more likely to win votes. In particular, men are more likely to vote for attractive female candidates whereas women are more likely to vote for approachable male candidates. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Here we reveal gender biases in the intuitive heuristics that voters use when deciding whom to vote for in major political elections. Our

  3. Pathogens and politics: further evidence that parasite prevalence predicts authoritarianism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Damian R; Schaller, Mark; Suedfeld, Peter

    2013-01-01

    According to a "parasite stress" hypothesis, authoritarian governments are more likely to emerge in regions characterized by a high prevalence of disease-causing pathogens. Recent cross-national evidence is consistent with this hypothesis, but there are inferential limitations associated with that evidence. We report two studies that address some of these limitations, and provide further tests of the hypothesis. Study 1 revealed that parasite prevalence strongly predicted cross-national differences on measures assessing individuals' authoritarian personalities, and this effect statistically mediated the relationship between parasite prevalence and authoritarian governance. The mediation result is inconsistent with an alternative explanation for previous findings. To address further limitations associated with cross-national comparisons, Study 2 tested the parasite stress hypothesis on a sample of traditional small-scale societies (the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample). Results revealed that parasite prevalence predicted measures of authoritarian governance, and did so even when statistically controlling for other threats to human welfare. (One additional threat-famine-also uniquely predicted authoritarianism.) Together, these results further substantiate the parasite stress hypothesis of authoritarianism, and suggest that societal differences in authoritarian governance result, in part, from cultural differences in individuals' authoritarian personalities.

  4. Reflections on assumption of energetic politics. Viewpoint of a sceptial observer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taczanowski, S.; Pohorecki, W.

    2000-01-01

    The Polish assumptions of energetic politics up to 2020 have been critically assessed. Energy sources availability as well as predicted fuel prices have been discussed for interesting period. Fossil fuels and uranium have been taken into account. On the presented basis it has been concluded that rejection the nuclear option in Poland for energetics development plans up to 2020 seems to be a serious mistake

  5. Cortisol and politics: variance in voting behavior is predicted by baseline cortisol levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Jeffrey A; Smith, Kevin B; Alford, John R; Guck, Adam; Birnie, Andrew K; Hibbing, John R

    2014-06-22

    Participation in electoral politics is affected by a host of social and demographics variables, but there is growing evidence that biological predispositions may also play a role in behavior related to political involvement. We examined the role of individual variation in hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) stress axis parameters in explaining differences in self-reported and actual participation in political activities. Self-reported political activity, religious participation, and verified voting activity in U.S. national elections were collected from 105 participants, who were subsequently exposed to a standardized (nonpolitical) psychosocial stressor. We demonstrated that lower baseline salivary cortisol in the late afternoon was significantly associated with increased actual voting frequency in six national elections, but not with self-reported non-voting political activity. Baseline cortisol predicted significant variation in voting behavior above and beyond variation accounted for by traditional demographic variables (particularly age of participant in our sample). Participation in religious activity was weakly (and negatively) associated with baseline cortisol. Our results suggest that HPA-mediated characteristics of social, cognitive, and emotional processes may exert an influence on a trait as complex as voting behavior, and that cortisol is a better predictor of actual voting behavior, as opposed to self-reported political activity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Cortisol and Politics: Variance in Voting Behavior is Predicted by Baseline Cortisol Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Jeffrey A.; Smith, Kevin B.; Alford, John R.; Guck, Adam; Birnie, Andrew K.; Hibbing, John R.

    2014-01-01

    Participation in electoral politics is affected by a host of social and demographics variables, but there is growing evidence that biological predispositions may also play a role in behavior related to political involvement. We examined the role of individual variation in hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) stress axis parameters in explaining differences in self-reported and actual participation in political activities. Self-reported political activity, religious participation, and verified voting activity in U.S. national elections were collected from 105 participants, who were subsequently exposed to a standardized (nonpolitical) psychosocial stressor. We demonstrated that lower baseline salivary cortisol in the late afternoon was significantly associated with increased actual voting frequency in six national elections, but not with self-reported non-voting political activity. Baseline cortisol predicted significant variation in voting behavior above and beyond variation accounted for by traditional demographic variables (particularly age of participant in our sample). Participation in religious activity was weakly (and negatively) associated with baseline cortisol. Our results suggest that HPA-mediated characteristics of social, cognitive, and emotional processes may exert an influence on a trait as complex as voting behavior, and that cortisol is a better predictor of actual voting behavior, as opposed to self-reported political activity. PMID:24835544

  7. Why achievement motivation predicts success in business but failure in politics: the importance of personal control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, David G

    2010-12-01

    Several decades of research have established that implicit achievement motivation (n Achievement) is associated with success in business, particularly in entrepreneurial or sales roles. However, several political psychology studies have shown that achievement motivation is not associated with success in politics; rather, implicit power motivation often predicts political success. Having versus lacking control may be a key difference between business and politics. Case studies suggest that achievement-motivated U.S. presidents and other world leaders often become frustrated and thereby fail because of lack of control, whereas power-motivated presidents develop ways to work with this inherent feature of politics. A reevaluation of previous research suggests that, in fact, relationships between achievement motivation and business success only occur when control is high. The theme of control is also prominent in the development of achievement motivation. Cross-national data are also consistent with this analysis: In democratic industrialized countries, national levels of achievement motivation are associated with strong executive control. In countries with low opportunity for education (thus fewer opportunities to develop a sense of personal control), achievement motivation is associated with internal violence. Many of these manifestations of frustrated achievement motivation in politics resemble authoritarianism. This conclusion is tested by data from a longitudinal study of 113 male college students, showing that high initial achievement motivation combined with frustrated desires for control is related to increases in authoritarianism (F-scale scores) during the college years. Implications for the psychology of leadership and practical politics are discussed. © 2010 The Author. Journal of Personality © 2010, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. EEG Analysis of the Brain Activity during the Observation of Commercial, Political, or Public Service Announcements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Vecchiato

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The use of modern brain imaging techniques could be useful to understand what brain areas are involved in the observation of video clips related to commercial advertising, as well as for the support of political campaigns, and also the areas of Public Service Announcements (PSAs. In this paper we describe the capability of tracking brain activity during the observation of commercials, political spots, and PSAs with advanced high-resolution EEG statistical techniques in time and frequency domains in a group of normal subjects. We analyzed the statistically significant cortical spectral power activity in different frequency bands during the observation of a commercial video clip related to the use of a beer in a group of 13 normal subjects. In addition, a TV speech of the Prime Minister of Italy was analyzed in two groups of swing and “supporter” voters. Results suggested that the cortical activity during the observation of commercial spots could vary consistently across the spot. This fact suggest the possibility to remove the parts of the spot that are not particularly attractive by using those cerebral indexes. The cortical activity during the observation of the political speech indicated a major cortical activity in the supporters group when compared to the swing voters. In this case, it is possible to conclude that the communication proposed has failed to raise attention or interest on swing voters. In conclusions, high-resolution EEG statistical techniques have been proved to able to generate useful insights about the particular fruition of TV messages, related to both commercial as well as political fields.

  9. EEG analysis of the brain activity during the observation of commercial, political, or public service announcements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vecchiato, Giovanni; Astolfi, Laura; Tabarrini, Alessandro; Salinari, Serenella; Mattia, Donatella; Cincotti, Febo; Bianchi, Luigi; Sorrentino, Domenica; Aloise, Fabio; Soranzo, Ramon; Babiloni, Fabio

    2010-01-01

    The use of modern brain imaging techniques could be useful to understand what brain areas are involved in the observation of video clips related to commercial advertising, as well as for the support of political campaigns, and also the areas of Public Service Announcements (PSAs). In this paper we describe the capability of tracking brain activity during the observation of commercials, political spots, and PSAs with advanced high-resolution EEG statistical techniques in time and frequency domains in a group of normal subjects. We analyzed the statistically significant cortical spectral power activity in different frequency bands during the observation of a commercial video clip related to the use of a beer in a group of 13 normal subjects. In addition, a TV speech of the Prime Minister of Italy was analyzed in two groups of swing and "supporter" voters. Results suggested that the cortical activity during the observation of commercial spots could vary consistently across the spot. This fact suggest the possibility to remove the parts of the spot that are not particularly attractive by using those cerebral indexes. The cortical activity during the observation of the political speech indicated a major cortical activity in the supporters group when compared to the swing voters. In this case, it is possible to conclude that the communication proposed has failed to raise attention or interest on swing voters. In conclusions, high-resolution EEG statistical techniques have been proved to able to generate useful insights about the particular fruition of TV messages, related to both commercial as well as political fields.

  10. Response predictions using the observed autocorrelation function

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Ulrik Dam; H. Brodtkorb, Astrid; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2018-01-01

    This article studies a procedure that facilitates short-time, deterministic predictions of the wave-induced motion of a marine vessel, where it is understood that the future motion of the vessel is calculated ahead of time. Such predictions are valuable to assist in the execution of many marine......-induced response in study. Thus, predicted (future) values ahead of time for a given time history recording are computed through a mathematical combination of the sample autocorrelation function and previous measurements recorded just prior to the moment of action. Importantly, the procedure does not need input...... show that predictions can be successfully made in a time horizon corresponding to about 8-9 wave periods ahead of current time (the moment of action)....

  11. Investigating the origins of political views: biases in explanation predict conservative attitudes in children and adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussak, Larisa J; Cimpian, Andrei

    2018-05-01

    We tested the hypothesis that political attitudes are influenced by an information-processing factor - namely, a bias in the content of everyday explanations. Because many societal phenomena are enormously complex, people's understanding of them often relies on heuristic shortcuts. For instance, when generating explanations for such phenomena (e.g., why does this group have low status?), people often rely on facts that they can retrieve easily from memory - facts that are skewed toward inherent or intrinsic features (e.g., this group is unintelligent). We hypothesized that this bias in the content of heuristic explanations leads to a tendency to (1) view socioeconomic stratification as acceptable and (2) prefer current societal arrangements to alternative ones, two hallmarks of conservative ideology. Moreover, since the inherence bias in explanation is present across development, we expected it to shape children's proto-political judgments as well. Three studies with adults and 4- to 8-year-old children (N = 784) provided support for these predictions: Not only did individual differences in reliance on inherent explanations uniquely predict endorsement of conservative views (particularly the stratification-supporting component; Study 1), but manipulations of this explanatory bias also had downstream consequences for political attitudes in both children and adults (Studies 2 and 3). This work contributes to our understanding of the origins of political attitudes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Lessons learnt from the transport provision on the island of Ireland – political observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Banihan GUNAY

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper delineates the core issues surrounding political, socio-economic, and territorial implications on a number of transport issues on the island of Ireland by looking at the record of transport in the early 20th century, concentrating on the disintegration of the rail network, and its effect on local population, as this was the foremost method of transport during this period. An amalgamation of interviews and open-ended questionnaires directed towards politicians painted a vivid picture of the core principals influencing their parties’ policies in relation to transport on the island. Participant observation of an overt nature was incorporated to investigate the views of those who feel they have suffered as a result of the neglected border region, along with the other areas of the northwest, and the policies of their political representatives. The data also reinforced the notion that other arguments also portrayed that security reasons in the latter half of the century in the north contributed to the problem. The paper looks at the discourse of political stagnation to motivation over the last century and the political manifestations that have created this tidal shift. A preliminary questionnaire survey was conducted to explore a number of key issues such as (a island’s troubled past and the land transport infrastructure, (b reasons why the railway and road networks in the proximity of the border counties have become so stagnant, (c perceived impacts of devolution and the peace process on transport on the island, and (f possibilities of stronger cooperation and cohesion between the north and the south in relation to transport.

  13. Distributed estimation based on observations prediction in wireless sensor networks

    KAUST Repository

    Bouchoucha, Taha

    2015-03-19

    We consider wireless sensor networks (WSNs) used for distributed estimation of unknown parameters. Due to the limited bandwidth, sensor nodes quantize their noisy observations before transmission to a fusion center (FC) for the estimation process. In this letter, the correlation between observations is exploited to reduce the mean-square error (MSE) of the distributed estimation. Specifically, sensor nodes generate local predictions of their observations and then transmit the quantized prediction errors (innovations) to the FC rather than the quantized observations. The analytic and numerical results show that transmitting the innovations rather than the observations mitigates the effect of quantization noise and hence reduces the MSE. © 2015 IEEE.

  14. The relationship of children predicted behaviour to their observed ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The relationship of children predicted behaviour to their observed behaviour during ... of presumed difficult children manifested positive behaviour in comparison to ... modeling and reinforcement instituted in children likely to behave poorly will ...

  15. Social networks predict selective observation and information spread in ravens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubenstein, Daniel I.; Bugnyar, Thomas; Hoppitt, William; Mikus, Nace; Schwab, Christine

    2016-01-01

    Animals are predicted to selectively observe and learn from the conspecifics with whom they share social connections. Yet, hardly anything is known about the role of different connections in observation and learning. To address the relationships between social connections, observation and learning, we investigated transmission of information in two raven (Corvus corax) groups. First, we quantified social connections in each group by constructing networks on affiliative interactions, aggressive interactions and proximity. We then seeded novel information by training one group member on a novel task and allowing others to observe. In each group, an observation network based on who observed whose task-solving behaviour was strongly correlated with networks based on affiliative interactions and proximity. Ravens with high social centrality (strength, eigenvector, information centrality) in the affiliative interaction network were also central in the observation network, possibly as a result of solving the task sooner. Network-based diffusion analysis revealed that the order that ravens first solved the task was best predicted by connections in the affiliative interaction network in a group of subadult ravens, and by social rank and kinship (which influenced affiliative interactions) in a group of juvenile ravens. Our results demonstrate that not all social connections are equally effective at predicting the patterns of selective observation and information transmission. PMID:27493780

  16. The Relationship of Children's Predicted Behaviour to their Observed

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Olaleye

    The objective of this study was to assess the relationship of some Nigerian children's predicted behaviour to their observed behaviour ... study of children from low socio- economic families during their first dental visit, Hawley et al, ... An assessment of the behaviour of each child was made using Frankl's. Behaviour Rating ...

  17. Understanding Electrochemistry Concepts Using the Predict-Observe-Explain Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karamustafaoglu, Sevilay; Mamlok-Naaman, Rachel

    2015-01-01

    The current study deals with freshman students who study at the Department of Science at the Faculty of Education. The aim of the study was to investigate the effect of teaching electrochemistry concepts using Predict-Observe-Explain (POE) strategy. The study was quasi-experimental design using 20 students each in the experimental group (EG) and…

  18. Comparison of observed and predicted Kr-85 air concentrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yildiran, M.; Miller, C.W.

    1984-01-01

    A computer code, ANEMOS has been written to estimate concentrations in air and ground deposition rates for Atmospheric Nuclides Emitted from Multiple Operation Sources. This code uses a modified Gaussian plume equation. Output from ANEMOS includes annual-average air concentrations and ground deposition rates of dispersed radionuclides and daughters. To use the environmental transport model properly, some estimate of the models predictive accuracy must be obtained. To validate the ANEMOS model, one year of weekly average Kr-85 concentrations observed at 13 stations located 28 to 144 km distant from continuous point source at the Savannah River Plant have been used. There was a general tendency for the model to underpredict the observed air concentrations slightly. Pearson's correlation between pairs of logarithms of observed and predicted annual-average values was r=0.84. The monthly results tend to show more scatter than do either the seasonal or the annual comparisons. (orig.)

  19. Comparison of observed and predicted Kr-85 air concentrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yildiran, M.; Miller, C.W.

    1984-01-01

    A computer code, ANEMOS has been written to estimate concentrations in air and ground deposition rates for Atmospheric Nuclides Emitted from Multiple Operation Sources. This code uses a modified Gaussian plum equation. Output from ANEMOS includes annual-average air concentrations and ground deposition rates of dispersed radionuclides and daughters. To use the environmental transport model properly, some estimate of the models predictive accuracy must be obtained. To validate the ANEMOS model, one year of weekly average Kr-85 concentrations observed at 13 stations located 28 to 144 km distant from continuous point source at the Savannah River Plant (SRP), Aiken, South Carolina, have been used. There was a general tendency for the model to underpredict the observed air concentrations slightly. Pearsons's correlation between pairs of logarithms of observed and predicted annual-average values was r = 0.84. The monthly results tend to show more scatter than do either the seasonal or the annual comparisons. 18 references, 3 figures, 3 tables

  20. Predicting Plasma Glucose From Interstitial Glucose Observations Using Bayesian Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Alexander Hildenbrand; Duun-Henriksen, Anne Katrine; Juhl, Rune

    2014-01-01

    One way of constructing a control algorithm for an artificial pancreas is to identify a model capable of predicting plasma glucose (PG) from interstitial glucose (IG) observations. Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) make it possible to account both for the unknown influence of the continuous...... glucose monitor (CGM) and for unknown physiological influences. Combined with prior knowledge about the measurement devices, this approach can be used to obtain a robust predictive model. A stochastic-differential-equation-based gray box (SDE-GB) model is formulated on the basis of an identifiable...

  1. GENDER AND THE PERSONAL IN POLITICAL BIOGRAPHY Observations from a Dutch Perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosch, Mineke

    2009-01-01

    This article explores the differential meanings of "personal life" in political biographies of men and women, mainly based upon Dutch examples, but making use of international literature. Though there has been a tendency to use personal detail only as a means to advertise and popularize

  2. Predicting the future completing models of observed complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Abarbanel, Henry

    2013-01-01

    Predicting the Future: Completing Models of Observed Complex Systems provides a general framework for the discussion of model building and validation across a broad spectrum of disciplines. This is accomplished through the development of an exact path integral for use in transferring information from observations to a model of the observed system. Through many illustrative examples drawn from models in neuroscience, fluid dynamics, geosciences, and nonlinear electrical circuits, the concepts are exemplified in detail. Practical numerical methods for approximate evaluations of the path integral are explored, and their use in designing experiments and determining a model's consistency with observations is investigated. Using highly instructive examples, the problems of data assimilation and the means to treat them are clearly illustrated. This book will be useful for students and practitioners of physics, neuroscience, regulatory networks, meteorology and climate science, network dynamics, fluid dynamics, and o...

  3. Observations and predictions of EUV emission from classical novae

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Starrfield, S.; Truran, J.W.; Sparks, W.M.; Krautter, J.

    1989-01-01

    Theoretical modeling of novae in outburst predicts that they should be active emitters of radiation both in the EUV and soft X-ray wavelengths twice during the outburst. The first time is very early in the outburst when only an all sky survey can detect them. This period lasts only a few hours. They again become bright EUV and soft X-ray emitters late in the outburst when the remnant object becomes very hot and is still luminous. The predictions imply both that a nova can remain very hot for months to years and that the peak temperature at this time strongly depends upon the mass of the white dwarf. It is important to observe novae at these late times because a measurement of both the flux and temperature can provide information about the mass of the white dwarf, the tun-off time scale, and the energy budget of the outburst. We review the existing observations of novae in late stages of their outburst and present some newly obtained data for GQ Mus 1983. We then provide results of new hydrodynamic simulations of novae in outburst and compare the predictions to the observations. 43 refs., 6 figs

  4. How Internal Political Efficacy Translates Political Knowledge Into Political Participation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichert, Frank

    2016-01-01

    This study presents evidence for the mediation effect of political knowledge through political self-efficacy (i.e. internal political efficacy) in the prediction of political participation. It employs an action theoretic approach—by and large grounded on the Theory of Planned Behaviour—and uses data from the German Longitudinal Election Study to examine whether political knowledge has distinct direct effects on voting, conventional, and/or unconventional political participation. It argues that political knowledge raises internal political efficacy and thereby indirectly increases the chance that a citizen will participate in politics. The results of mediated multiple regression analyses yield evidence that political knowledge indeed translates into internal political efficacy, thus it affects political participation of various kinds indirectly. However, internal political efficacy and intentions to participate politically yield simultaneous direct effects only on conventional political participation. Sequentially mediated effects appear for voting and conventional political participation, with political knowledge being mediated by internal political efficacy and subsequently also by behavioural intentions. The mediation patterns for unconventional political participation are less clear though. The discussion accounts for restrictions of this study and points to questions for answer by future research. PMID:27298633

  5. Performing Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Troy R. E. Paddock

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Walter Benjamin’s observation that fascism turns politics into aesthetics is, by now, a well-worn idea. This article argues that Benjamin’s critique of politics can apply just as much to the modern democratic politics of the United States. Borrowing from Benjamin, Jürgen Habermas, and Carl Schmitt, this article suggests that modern political discourse in the United States does not follow the classical liberal ideal of rational discourse in the marketplace of ideas within the public sphere. Instead, contemporary politics has become spectacle where images and slogans replace thought and debate in a 24/7 news cycle and political infotainment programs. The result is that progressives and conservatives have their own political “ecospheres” which enable them to have their own perspective reinforced, and debate is replaced by straw man arguments and personal attacks.

  6. Do Personality and Organizational Politics Predict Workplace Victimization? A Study among Ghanaian Employees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwesi Amponsah-Tawiah

    2017-03-01

    Conclusion: The study demonstrates that compared with personal characteristics such as personality traits, work environment factors such as organizational politics have a stronger influence on the occurrence of workplace victimization.

  7. Do Personality and Organizational Politics Predict Workplace Victimization? A Study among Ghanaian Employees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amponsah-Tawiah, Kwesi; Annor, Francis

    2017-03-01

    Workplace victimization is considered a major social stressor with significant implications for the wellbeing of employees and organizations. The aim of this study was to examine the influences of employees' personality traits and organizational politics on workplace victimization among Ghanaian employees. Using a cross-sectional design, data were collected from 631 employees selected from diverse occupations through convenience sampling. Data collection tools were standardized questionnaires that measured experiences of negative acts at work (victimization), the Big Five personality traits, and organizational politics. The results from hierarchical multiple regression analysis showed that among the personality traits neuroticism and conscientiousness had significant, albeit weak relationships with victimization. Organizational politics had a significant positive relationship with workplace victimization beyond employees' personality. The study demonstrates that compared with personal characteristics such as personality traits, work environment factors such as organizational politics have a stronger influence on the occurrence of workplace victimization.

  8. The observed and predicted health effects of the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-03-01

    Due to poor design, operator error and the absence of an established {sup S}afety Culture{sup ,} the worst accident in the history of nuclear power involving the Unit 4 RMBK reactor occurred at Chernobyl in the Ukraine in the early morning of 26 April 1986. This accident led to the contamination of large tracts of forest and agricultural land (in the former Soviet Union) and the evacuation of a large number of people. Thirty-one people died at the time of the accident or shortly afterwards, and 203 people were treated for the Acute Radiation Syndrome. From about 1990 a significant increase in the number of childhood thyroid cancers has been noted in Belarus and Ukraine. Because of the social, political and economic situation in the Soviet Union soon after the accident, the anxiety and stress induced in the general population has been enhanced to the point where it may well be the single most important indirect health effect of the accident. Contamination outside the former Soviet Union was largely confined to Europe, where it was extremely patchy and variable. Contamination in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere was insignificant. The health effects in the General Population in the Contaminated Regions in the former USSR and Europe, are predicted to be low and not discernible. However, there may be subgroups within, for example, the Liquidators, which if they can be identified and followed, may show adverse health effects. Health effects in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere will be inconsequential. (author) 38 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig.

  9. The observed and predicted health effects of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-03-01

    Due to poor design, operator error and the absence of an established S afety Culture , the worst accident in the history of nuclear power involving the Unit 4 RMBK reactor occurred at Chernobyl in the Ukraine in the early morning of 26 April 1986. This accident led to the contamination of large tracts of forest and agricultural land (in the former Soviet Union) and the evacuation of a large number of people. Thirty-one people died at the time of the accident or shortly afterwards, and 203 people were treated for the Acute Radiation Syndrome. From about 1990 a significant increase in the number of childhood thyroid cancers has been noted in Belarus and Ukraine. Because of the social, political and economic situation in the Soviet Union soon after the accident, the anxiety and stress induced in the general population has been enhanced to the point where it may well be the single most important indirect health effect of the accident. Contamination outside the former Soviet Union was largely confined to Europe, where it was extremely patchy and variable. Contamination in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere was insignificant. The health effects in the General Population in the Contaminated Regions in the former USSR and Europe, are predicted to be low and not discernible. However, there may be subgroups within, for example, the Liquidators, which if they can be identified and followed, may show adverse health effects. Health effects in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere will be inconsequential. (author) 38 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig

  10. THE POPULATION OF HELIUM-MERGER PROGENITORS: OBSERVATIONAL PREDICTIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fryer, Chris L.; Belczynski, Krzysztof; Bulik, Tomasz; Berger, Edo; Thöne, Christina; Ellinger, Carola

    2013-01-01

    The helium-merger gamma-ray burst (GRB) progenitor is produced by the rapid accretion onto a compact remnant (neutron star or black hole) when it undergoes a common envelope inspiral with its companion's helium core. This merger phase produces a very distinct environment around these outbursts and recent observations suggest that, in some cases, we are detecting the signatures of the past merger in the GRB afterglow. These observations allow us, for the first time, to study the specific features of the helium-merger progenitor. In this paper, we couple population synthesis calculations to our current understanding of GRB engines and common envelope evolution to make observational predictions for the helium-merger GRB population. Many mergers do not produce GRB outbursts and we discuss the implications of these mergers with the broader population of astrophysical transients.

  11. Political CSR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeppesen, Søren; Morsing, Mette

    We engage a discussion of political CSR in SMEs in an African context. Based on critical observations on Western MNC CSR action in emerging economies that holds counterproductive implications for social development, political economists have argued that business profit far more than society...... development in local African communities. Our findings extend political CSR research by directing attention to how the corporate influence in developing economies does not only emerge from MNCs but is also established and retained by SMEs CSR work....

  12. Blood pressure and social support observations from Mamre, South Africa, during social and political transition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, A; Hoffman, M; Lombard, C; Steyn, K; Levitt, N; Katzenellenbogen, J

    1999-10-01

    Social support, by moderating cardiovascular reactivity, has been demonstrated to attenuate the effects of stress on blood pressure in American communities. This is the first report to examine the relationship between social support and blood pressure in a South African context, during a period of infrastructure modernisation and political change. A total of 1240 residents (542 men, 698 women) of mixed ethnic origin, older than 14 years and stratified by age and sex, participated in a survey to determine risk factors for hypertension and cardiovascular diseases. Social support was assessed by a questionnaire developed in consultation with the community. It was defined by interactions that may threaten family harmony (score 1) and by networking between relatives, friends, colleagues and neighbours (score 2). Mean blood pressure of the sample was 130/79 mm Hg (s.d. 25/14 mm Hg). Hypertension prevalence was 26.9%. Only 36% of women compared to 57.3% of men (P social support networks were similarly perceived by both sexes. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure correlated weakly with score 1 (r = 0.096, P networking between relatives, friends or neighbours, significantly influences blood pressure in this community. Measures of social support thought to moderate blood pressure may have limited cross-cultural application. Attitudinal changes during socio-political transition may impact on the generalisability of instruments for measurement.

  13. The Impact of Ocean Observations in Seasonal Climate Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rienecker, Michele; Keppenne, Christian; Kovach, Robin; Marshak, Jelena

    2010-01-01

    The ocean provides the most significant memory for the climate system. Hence, a critical element in climate forecasting with coupled models is the initialization of the ocean with states from an ocean data assimilation system. Remotely-sensed ocean surface fields (e.g., sea surface topography, SST, winds) are now available for extensive periods and have been used to constrain ocean models to provide a record of climate variations. Since the ocean is virtually opaque to electromagnetic radiation, the assimilation of these satellite data is essential to extracting the maximum information content. More recently, the Argo drifters have provided unprecedented sampling of the subsurface temperature and salinity. Although the duration of this observation set has been too short to provide solid statistical evidence of its impact, there are indications that Argo improves the forecast skill of coupled systems. This presentation will address the impact these different observations have had on seasonal climate predictions with the GMAO's coupled model.

  14. The cases of observance and violation of politeness maxims by communicants in the ego-state of natural Child

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Гульнара Фанзиловна Гизатова

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, the study of human communication is of great importance in linguistics and psychology. In order to achieve smooth and conflict-free interaction it is necessary not only to respect the rules of politeness, but also to take into account the position of the speaker and the addressee. This explains the need to study many psychological factors in communication. This paper studies the ego-state of Natural Child in speech communication. Investigating the behavior of communicants in the ego-state of Natural Child, we rely on the theory of transactional analysis (E. Bern 1961 . According to this theory, the behavior of the speaker and the addressee in the ego-states of Natural Child varies from curious, inspiring, dreamy, and natural to the selfish, spiteful, shameless and impatient. The material for investigation is the dialogs from British and American fiction of XIX-XXI centuries. The dialogs contain the speaker and addressee’s replicas, meeting the essential requirements of the Principle of Politeness (G. Leech 1983 and the theory of transactional analysis. In our work we have applied hypothetical-deductive method, and methods of definitional and contextual analysis. The anylisis of our material demonstrates that communicants in the ego-state of Natural Child observe the maxims of generosity, tact and agreement, and violate the maxims of approbation, modesty and tact. Thus, the implementation of politeness maxims by communicants in ego-state of Natural Child depends entirely on their behavior.

  15. Social and economic ideologies differentially predict prejudice across the political spectrum, but social issues are most divisive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Jarret T; Brandt, Mark J; Inbar, Yoel; Chambers, John R; Motyl, Matt

    2017-03-01

    Liberals and conservatives both express prejudice toward ideologically dissimilar others (Brandt et al., 2014). Previous work on ideological prejudice did not take advantage of evidence showing that ideology is multidimensional, with social and economic ideologies representing related but separable belief systems. In 5 studies (total N = 4912), we test 3 competing hypotheses of a multidimensional account of ideological prejudice. The dimension-specific symmetry hypothesis predicts that social and economic ideologies differentially predict prejudice against targets who are perceived to vary on the social and economic political dimensions, respectively. The social primacy hypothesis predicts that such ideological worldview conflict is experienced more strongly along the social than economic dimension. The social-specific asymmetry hypothesis predicts that social conservatives will be more prejudiced than social liberals, with no specific hypotheses for the economic dimension. Using multiple target groups, multiple prejudice measures (e.g., global evaluations, behavior), and multiple social and economic ideology measures (self-placement, issue positions), we found relatively consistent support for the dimension-specific symmetry and social primacy hypotheses, and no support for the social-specific asymmetry hypothesis. These results suggest that worldview conflict and negative intergroup attitudes and behaviors are dimension-specific, but that the social dimension appears to inspire more political conflict than the economic dimension. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. Climato-economic livability predicts societal collectivism and political autocracy better than parasitic stress does

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van de Vliert, E.; Postmes, T.

    A 121-nation study of societal collectivism and a 174-nation study of political autocracy show that parasitic stress does not account for any variation in these components of culture once the interactive impacts of climatic demands and income resources have been accounted for. Climato-economic

  17. Climato-economic livability predicts societal collectivism and political autocracy better than parasitic stress does.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van de Vliert, Evert; Postmes, Tom

    2012-04-01

    A 121-nation study of societal collectivism and a 174-nation study of political autocracy show that parasitic stress does not account for any variation in these components of culture once the interactive impacts of climatic demands and income resources have been accounted for. Climato-economic livability is a viable rival explanation for the reported effects of parasitic stress on culture.

  18. Do inferences of competence from faces predict political selection in authoritarian regimes? Evidence from China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Stan Hok-Wui; Zeng, Yu

    2017-08-01

    Candidate appearance is a significant predictor of election outcomes in democracies because voters often make inference of competence based on facial appearance. Do inferences of competence from faces matter in autocracies? In this article, we study the effects of candidate appearance on the selection of three types of Chinese officials: (1) rural deputies elected to a local people's congress (LPC), (2) urban deputies elected to the LPC, and (3) unelected mayors and bureaucrats. We find that facial competence cues are relevant only to the votes received by rural LPC candidates. Our findings suggest the importance of information accessibility in political selection. In particular, the "selectorate" of mayors and bureaucrats do not need facial appearance cues because they have access to substantive information about the quality of political candidates. Our findings provide a possible explanation for the resilience of some autocracies: they are able to identify talent through an informative, albeit non-electoral, selection mechanism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Do Personality and Organizational Politics Predict Workplace Victimization? A Study among Ghanaian Employees

    OpenAIRE

    Amponsah-Tawiah, Kwesi; Annor, Francis

    2016-01-01

    Background: Workplace victimization is considered a major social stressor with significant implications for the wellbeing of employees and organizations. The aim of this study was to examine the influences of employees' personality traits and organizational politics on workplace victimization among Ghanaian employees. Methods: Using a cross-sectional design, data were collected from 631 employees selected from diverse occupations through convenience sampling. Data collection tools were sta...

  20. Phenological observations on shrubs to predict weed emergence in turf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masin, Roberta; Zuin, Maria Clara; Zanin, Giuseppe

    2005-09-01

    Phenology is the study of periodic biological events. If we can find easily recognizable events in common plants that precede or coincide with weed emergences, these plants could be used as indicators. Weed seedlings are usually difficult to detect in turf, so the use of phenological indicators may provide an alternative approach to predict the time when a weed appears and consequently guide management decisions. A study was undertaken to determine whether the phenological phases of some plants could serve as reliable indicators of time of weed emergence in turf. The phenology of six shrubs (Crataegus monogyna Jacq., Forsythia viridissima Lindl., Sambucus nigra L., Syringa vulgaris L., Rosa multiflora Thunb., Ziziphus jujuba Miller) and a perennial herbaceous plant [Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers.] was observed and the emergence dynamics of four annual weed species [Digitaria sanguinalis (L.) Scop., Eleusine indica (L.) Gaertner, Setaria glauca (L.) Beauv., Setaria viridis (L.) Beauv.] were studied from 1999 to 2004 in northern Italy. A correlation between certain events and weed emergence was verified. S. vulgaris and F. viridissima appear to be the best indicators: there is a quite close correspondence between the appearance of D. sanguinalis and lilac flowering and between the beginning of emergence of E. indica and the end of lilac flowering; emergences of S. glauca and S. viridis were predicted well in relation to the end of forsythia flowering. Base temperatures and starting dates required to calculate the heat unit sums to reach and complete the flowering phase of the indicators were calculated using two different methods and the resultant cumulative growing degree days were compared.

  1. Social Dominance Orientation: A Personality Variable Predicting Social and Political Attitudes

    OpenAIRE

    Malle, Bertram F.; Stallworth, Lisa M.; Sidanius, James; Pratto, Felicia

    1994-01-01

    Social dominance orientation (SDO), one's degree of preference for inequality among social groups, is introduced. On the basis of social dominance theory, it is shown that (a) men are more social dominance-oriented than women, (b) high-SDO people seek hierarchy-enhancing professional roles and low-SDO people seek hierarchy-attenuating roles, (c) SDO was related to beliefs in a large number of social and political ideologies that support group-based hierarchy (e.g., meritocracy and racism) and...

  2. The psychology of intelligence analysis: drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellers, Barbara; Stone, Eric; Atanasov, Pavel; Rohrbaugh, Nick; Metz, S Emlen; Ungar, Lyle; Bishop, Michael M; Horowitz, Michael; Merkle, Ed; Tetlock, Philip

    2015-03-01

    This article extends psychological methods and concepts into a domain that is as profoundly consequential as it is poorly understood: intelligence analysis. We report findings from a geopolitical forecasting tournament that assessed the accuracy of more than 150,000 forecasts of 743 participants on 199 events occurring over 2 years. Participants were above average in intelligence and political knowledge relative to the general population. Individual differences in performance emerged, and forecasting skills were surprisingly consistent over time. Key predictors were (a) dispositional variables of cognitive ability, political knowledge, and open-mindedness; (b) situational variables of training in probabilistic reasoning and participation in collaborative teams that shared information and discussed rationales (Mellers, Ungar, et al., 2014); and (c) behavioral variables of deliberation time and frequency of belief updating. We developed a profile of the best forecasters; they were better at inductive reasoning, pattern detection, cognitive flexibility, and open-mindedness. They had greater understanding of geopolitics, training in probabilistic reasoning, and opportunities to succeed in cognitively enriched team environments. Last but not least, they viewed forecasting as a skill that required deliberate practice, sustained effort, and constant monitoring of current affairs. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  3. Political science. Reverse-engineering censorship in China: randomized experimentation and participant observation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Gary; Pan, Jennifer; Roberts, Margaret E

    2014-08-22

    Existing research on the extensive Chinese censorship organization uses observational methods with well-known limitations. We conducted the first large-scale experimental study of censorship by creating accounts on numerous social media sites, randomly submitting different texts, and observing from a worldwide network of computers which texts were censored and which were not. We also supplemented interviews with confidential sources by creating our own social media site, contracting with Chinese firms to install the same censoring technologies as existing sites, and--with their software, documentation, and even customer support--reverse-engineering how it all works. Our results offer rigorous support for the recent hypothesis that criticisms of the state, its leaders, and their policies are published, whereas posts about real-world events with collective action potential are censored. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  4. An observation on the variance of a predicted response in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... these properties and computational simplicity. To avoid over fitting, along with the obvious advantage of having a simpler equation, it is shown that the addition of a variable to a regression equation does not reduce the variance of a predicted response. Key words: Linear regression; Partitioned matrix; Predicted response ...

  5. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Daily Precipitation Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observational reports of daily precipitation (1200 UTC to 1200 UTC) are made by members of the NWS Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) network; NWS...

  6. Climatological Observations for Maritime Prediction and Analysis Support Service (COMPASS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    OConnor, A.; Kirtman, B. P.; Harrison, S.; Gorman, J.

    2016-02-01

    Current US Navy forecasting systems cannot easily incorporate extended-range forecasts that can improve mission readiness and effectiveness; ensure safety; and reduce cost, labor, and resource requirements. If Navy operational planners had systems that incorporated these forecasts, they could plan missions using more reliable and longer-term weather and climate predictions. Further, using multi-model forecast ensembles instead of single forecasts would produce higher predictive performance. Extended-range multi-model forecast ensembles, such as those available in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), are ideal for system integration because of their high skill predictions; however, even higher skill predictions can be produced if forecast model ensembles are combined correctly. While many methods for weighting models exist, the best method in a given environment requires expert knowledge of the models and combination methods.We present an innovative approach that uses machine learning to combine extended-range predictions from multi-model forecast ensembles and generate a probabilistic forecast for any region of the globe up to 12 months in advance. Our machine-learning approach uses 30 years of hindcast predictions to learn patterns of forecast model successes and failures. Each model is assigned a weight for each environmental condition, 100 km2 region, and day given any expected environmental information. These weights are then applied to the respective predictions for the region and time of interest to effectively stitch together a single, coherent probabilistic forecast. Our experimental results demonstrate the benefits of our approach to produce extended-range probabilistic forecasts for regions and time periods of interest that are superior, in terms of skill, to individual NMME forecast models and commonly weighted models. The probabilistic forecast leverages the strengths of three NMME forecast models to predict environmental conditions for an

  7. Polarization in the media during an election campaign: A dynamic network model predicting support and attack among political actors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Nooy, W.; Kleinnijenhuis, J.

    2013-01-01

    In multiparty election campaigns, many political parties and candidates compete for media attention, voters, and a government majority. Negative campaigning, which is often newsworthy, is an attractive strategy in the competition for media attention. However, political support for another party

  8. Polarization in the media during an election campaign: a dynamic network model predicting support and attack among political actors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Nooy, W.; Kleinnijenhuis, J.

    2013-01-01

    In multiparty election campaigns, many political parties and candidates compete for media attention, voters, and a government majority. Negative campaigning, which is often newsworthy, is an attractive strategy in the competition for media attention. However, political support for another party

  9. Climate-Induced Boreal Forest Change: Predictions versus Current Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soja, Amber J.; Tchebakova, Nadezda M.; French, Nancy H. F.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Shugart, Herman H.; Stocks, Brian J.; Sukhinin, Anatoly I.; Parfenova, E. I.; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.

    2007-01-01

    For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, five of the last seven years have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.

  10. Using Earth Observations to Understand and Predict Infectious Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soebiyanto, Radina P.; Kiang, Richard

    2015-01-01

    This presentation discusses the processes from data collection and processing to analysis involved in unraveling patterns between disease outbreaks and the surrounding environment and meteorological conditions. We used these patterns to estimate when and where disease outbreaks will occur. As a case study, we will present our work on assessing the relationship between meteorological conditions and influenza in Central America. Our work represents the discovery, prescriptive and predictive aspects of data analytics.

  11. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Pan Evaporation Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observational reports of daily pan evaporation (1200 UTC to 1200 UTC) are made by members of the NWS Cooperative Network (COOP) or supplemental networks of NOAA's...

  12. The First Galaxies Theoretical Predictions and Observational Clues

    CERN Document Server

    Mobasher, Bahram; Bromm, Volker

    2013-01-01

    New observations of the period between the cosmic recombination and the end of reionization are posing intriguing questions about where the first generations of stars were formed, how the first galaxies were assembled, whether these galaxies have low redshift counterparts, and what role the early galaxies played in the reionization process. Combining the new observational data with theoretical models can shed new light on open issues regarding the star formation process, its role in the reionization of the Universe, and the metal enrichment in galaxies at those early epochs. This volume brings together leading experts in the field to discuss our current level of understanding and what may come in the near future as our observational as well as theoretical tools improve. The book confronts the theory of how the first stars, black holes, and galaxies formed with current and planned observations. This synthesis is very timely, just ahead of the establishment of major new facilities, such as the James Webb Space ...

  13. Distributed estimation based on observations prediction in wireless sensor networks

    KAUST Repository

    Bouchoucha, Taha; Ahmed, Mohammed F A; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2015-01-01

    We consider wireless sensor networks (WSNs) used for distributed estimation of unknown parameters. Due to the limited bandwidth, sensor nodes quantize their noisy observations before transmission to a fusion center (FC) for the estimation process

  14. Loss of social resources predicts incident posttraumatic stress disorder during ongoing political violence within the Palestinian Authority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Brian J; Murray, Sarah M; Galea, Sandro; Canetti, Daphna; Hobfoll, Stevan E

    2015-04-01

    Exposure to ongoing political violence and stressful conditions increases the risk of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in low-resource contexts. However, much of our understanding of the determinants of PTSD in these contexts comes from cross-sectional data. Longitudinal studies that examine factors associated with incident PTSD may be useful to the development of effective prevention interventions and the identification of those who may be most at-risk for the disorder. A 3-stage cluster random stratified sampling methodology was used to obtain a representative sample of 1,196 Palestinian adults living in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Face-to-face interviews were conducted at two time points 6-months apart. Logistic regression analyses were conducted on a restricted sample of 643 people who did not have PTSD at baseline and who completed both interviews. The incidence of PTSD was 15.0 % over a 6-month period. Results of adjusted logistic regression models demonstrated that talking to friends and family about political circumstances (aOR = 0.78, p = 0.01) was protective, and female sex (aOR = 1.76, p = 0.025), threat perception of future violence (aOR = 1.50, p = 0.002), poor general health (aOR = 1.39, p = 0.005), exposure to media (aOR = 1.37, p = 0.002), and loss of social resources (aOR = 1.71, p = 0.006) were predictive of incident cases of PTSD. A high incidence of PTSD was documented during a 6-month follow-up period among Palestinian residents of Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem. Interventions that promote health and increase and forestall loss to social resources could potentially reduce the onset of PTSD in communities affected by violence.

  15. Macroweather Predictions and Climate Projections using Scaling and Historical Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hébert, R.; Lovejoy, S.; Del Rio Amador, L.

    2017-12-01

    There are two fundamental time scales that are pertinent to decadal forecasts and multidecadal projections. The first is the lifetime of planetary scale structures, about 10 days (equal to the deterministic predictability limit), and the second is - in the anthropocene - the scale at which the forced anthropogenic variability exceeds the internal variability (around 16 - 18 years). These two time scales define three regimes of variability: weather, macroweather and climate that are respectively characterized by increasing, decreasing and then increasing varibility with scale.We discuss how macroweather temperature variability can be skilfully predicted to its theoretical stochastic predictability limits by exploiting its long-range memory with the Stochastic Seasonal and Interannual Prediction System (StocSIPS). At multi-decadal timescales, the temperature response to forcing is approximately linear and this can be exploited to make projections with a Green's function, or Climate Response Function (CRF). To make the problem tractable, we exploit the temporal scaling symmetry and restrict our attention to global mean forcing and temperature response using a scaling CRF characterized by the scaling exponent H and an inner scale of linearity τ. An aerosol linear scaling factor α and a non-linear volcanic damping exponent ν were introduced to account for the large uncertainty in these forcings. We estimate the model and forcing parameters by Bayesian inference using historical data and these allow us to analytically calculate a median (and likely 66% range) for the transient climate response, and for the equilibrium climate sensitivity: 1.6K ([1.5,1.8]K) and 2.4K ([1.9,3.4]K) respectively. Aerosol forcing typically has large uncertainty and we find a modern (2005) forcing very likely range (90%) of [-1.0, -0.3] Wm-2 with median at -0.7 Wm-2. Projecting to 2100, we find that to keep the warming below 1.5 K, future emissions must undergo cuts similar to Representative

  16. Observant, Nonaggressive Temperament Predicts Theory of Mind Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wellman, Henry M.; Lane, Jonathan D.; LaBounty, Jennifer; Olson, Sheryl L.

    2010-01-01

    Temperament dimensions influence children’s approach to and participation in social interactive experiences which reflect and impact children’s social understandings. Therefore, temperament differences might substantially impact theory of mind development in early childhood. Using longitudinal data, we report that certain early temperament characteristics (at age 3) – lack of aggressiveness, a shy-withdrawn stance to social interaction, and social-perceptual sensitivity – predict children’s more advanced theory-of-mind understanding two years later. The findings contribute to our understanding of how theory of mind develops in the formative preschool period; they may also inform debates as to the evolutionary origins of theory of mind. PMID:21499499

  17. Near Real Time MISR Wind Observations for Numerical Weather Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, K. J.; Protack, S.; Rheingans, B. E.; Hansen, E. G.; Jovanovic, V. M.; Baker, N.; Liu, J.; Val, S.

    2014-12-01

    The Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) project, in association with the NASA Langley Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC), has this year adapted its original production software to generate near-real time (NRT) cloud-motion winds as well as radiance imagery from all nine MISR cameras. These products are made publicly available at the ASDC with a latency of less than 3 hours. Launched aboard the sun-synchronous Terra platform in 1999, the MISR instrument continues to acquire near-global, 275 m resolution, multi-angle imagery. During a single 7 minute overpass of any given area, MISR retrieves the stereoscopic height and horizontal motion of clouds from the multi-angle data, yielding meso-scale near-instantaneous wind vectors. The ongoing 15-year record of MISR height-resolved winds at 17.6 km resolution has been validated against independent data sources. Low-level winds dominate the sampling, and agree to within ±3 ms-1 of collocated GOES and other observations. Low-level wind observations are of particular interest to weather forecasting, where there is a dearth of observations suitable for assimilation, in part due to reliability concerns associated with winds whose heights are assigned by the infrared brightness temperature technique. MISR cloud heights, on the other hand, are generated from stereophotogrammetric pattern matching of visible radiances. MISR winds also address data gaps in the latitude bands between geostationary satellite coverage and polar orbiting instruments that obtain winds from multiple overpasses (e.g. MODIS). Observational impact studies conducted by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and by the German Weather Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) have both demonstrated forecast improvements when assimilating MISR winds. An impact assessment using the GEOS-5 system is currently in progress. To benefit air quality forecasts, the MISR project is currently investigating the feasibility of generating near-real time aerosol products.

  18. Diversity policy, social dominance, and intergroup relations: predicting prejudice in changing social and political contexts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guimond, Serge; Crisp, Richard J; De Oliveira, Pierre; Kamiejski, Rodolphe; Kteily, Nour; Kuepper, Beate; Lalonde, Richard N; Levin, Shana; Pratto, Felicia; Tougas, Francine; Sidanius, Jim; Zick, Andreas

    2013-06-01

    In contrast to authors of previous single-nation studies, we propose that supporting multiculturalism (MC) or assimilation (AS) is likely to have different effects in different countries, depending on the diversity policy in place in a particular country and the associated norms. A causal model of intergroup attitudes and behaviors, integrating both country-specific factors (attitudes and perceived norms related to a particular diversity policy) and general social-psychological determinants (social dominance orientation), was tested among participants from countries where the pro-diversity policy was independently classified as low, medium, or high (N = 1,232). Results showed that (a) anti-Muslim prejudice was significantly reduced when the pro-diversity policy was high; (b) countries differed strongly in perceived norms related to MC and AS, in ways consistent with the actual diversity policy in each country and regardless of participants' personal attitudes toward MC and AS; (c) as predicted, when these norms were salient, due to subtle priming, structural equation modeling with country included as a variable provided support for the proposed model, suggesting that the effect of country on prejudice can be successfully accounted by it; and (d) consistent with the claim that personal support for MC and AS played a different role in different countries, within-country mediation analyses provided evidence that personal attitudes toward AS mediated the effect of social dominance orientation on prejudice when pro-diversity policy was low, whereas personal attitudes toward MC was the mediator when pro-diversity policy was high. Thus, the critical variables shaping prejudice can vary across nations. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  19. Cloud condensation nuclei in Western Colorado: Observations and model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Daniel Stewart

    Variations in the warm cloud-active portion of atmospheric aerosols, or cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), have been shown to impact cloud droplet number concentration and subsequently cloud and precipitation processes. This issue carries special significance in western Colorado where a significant portion of the region's water resources is supplied by precipitation from winter season, orographic clouds, which are particularly sensitive to variations in CCN. Temporal and spatial variations in CCN in western Colorado were investigated using a combination of observations and a new method for modeling CCN. As part of the Inhibition of Snowfall by Pollution Aerosols (ISPA-III) field campaign, total particle and CCN number concentration were measured for a 24-day period in Mesa Verde National Park, climatologically upwind of the San Juan Mountains. These data were combined with CCN observations from Storm Peak Lab (SPL) in northwestern Colorado and from the King Air platform, flying north to south along the Western Slope. Altogether, the sampled aerosols were characteristic of a rural continental environment and the cloud-active portion varied slowly in time, and little in space. Estimates of the is hygroscopicity parameter indicated consistently low aerosol hygroscopicity typical of organic aerosol species. The modeling approach included the addition of prognostic CCN to the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). The RAMS droplet activation scheme was altered using parcel model simulations to include variations in aerosol hygroscopicity, represented by K. Analysis of the parcel model output and a supplemental sensitivity study showed that model CCN will be sensitive to changes in aerosol hygroscopicity, but only for conditions of low supersaturation or small particle sizes. Aerosol number, size distribution median radius, and hygroscopicity (represented by the K parameter) in RAMS were constrained by nudging to forecasts of these quantities from the Weather

  20. Perceived discrimination predicts increased support for political rights and life satisfaction mediated by ethnic identity: A longitudinal analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stronge, Samantha; Sengupta, Nikhil K; Barlow, Fiona Kate; Osborne, Danny; Houkamau, Carla A; Sibley, Chris G

    2016-07-01

    The aim of the current research is to test predictions derived from the rejection-identification model and research on collective action using cross-sectional (Study 1) and longitudinal (Study 2) methods. Specifically, an integration of these 2 literatures suggests that recognition of discrimination can have simultaneous positive relationships with well-being and engagement in collective action via the formation of a strong ingroup identity. We test these predictions in 2 studies using data from a large national probability sample of Māori (the indigenous peoples of New Zealand), collected as part of the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study (Ns for Study 1 and 2 were 1,981 and 1,373, respectively). Consistent with the extant research, Study 1 showed that perceived discrimination was directly linked with decreased life satisfaction, but indirectly linked with increased life satisfaction through higher levels of ethnic identification. Perceived discrimination was also directly linked with increased support for Māori rights and indirectly linked with increased support for Māori rights through higher levels of ethnic identification. Study 2 replicated these findings using longitudinal data and identified multiple bidirectional paths between perceived discrimination, ethnic identity, well-being, and support for collective action. These findings replicate and extend the rejection-identification model in a novel cultural context by demonstrating via cross-sectional (Study 1) and longitudinal (Study 2) analyses that the recognition of discrimination can both motivate support for political rights and increase well-being by strengthening ingroup identity. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. A National Study Predicting Licensed Social Workers' Levels of Political Participation: The Role of Resources, Psychological Engagement, and Recruitment Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritter, Jessica A.

    2008-01-01

    The social work literature is replete with studies evaluating social workers' direct practice interventions, but strikingly few have assessed how well social workers are faring in the political arena. This study tests a major theoretical model, the civic voluntarism model, developed to explain why some citizens become involved in politics, whereas…

  2. Political Expertise and Affect: Effects on News Processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Mei-Ling; Price, Vincent

    1993-01-01

    Investigates interactions between political expertise and affect in shaping cognitive strategies people employ in forming reactions to newspaper stories. Finds that, in processing the news articles, political experts produced a greater number of thoughts and a larger share of arguments than did novices. Observes no predicted main effects of…

  3. The political uses of astrology: predicting the illness and death of princes, kings and popes in the Italian Renaissance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azzolini, Monica

    2010-06-01

    This paper examines the production and circulation of astrological prognostications regarding the illness and death of kings, princes, and popes in the Italian Renaissance (ca. 1470-1630). The distribution and consumption of this type of astrological information was often closely linked to the specific political situation in which they were produced. Depending on the astrological techniques used (prorogations, interrogations, or annual revolutions), and the media in which they appeared (private letters or printed prognostica) these prognostications fulfilled different functions in the information economy of Renaissance Italy. Some were used to legitimise the rule of a political leader, others to do just the opposite. Astrological prorogations and interrogations were often used to plan military and political strategies in case of the illness or death of a political leader, while astrological prognostications were generally written to promote certain political leaders while undermining others. While certainly often partisan to this game, astrologers, for their part, worked within a very well established tradition that gave authority to their forecasts. This paper argues that, as indicators of deeper political tensions otherwise not always explicitly manifest, these prognostications are privileged sources of information providing a better understanding of the political history of the period.

  4. Comparison between predicted and observed sand waves and sand banks in the North Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.; van den Brink, G.M.

    2001-01-01

    For the first time a prediction model of regular morphological patterns on the seabed was tested against observations of sand wave and sand bank occurrence in the entire North Sea. The model, which originates from first physical principles, predicts this occurrence via two dimensionless parameters

  5. New England observed and predicted Julian day of maximum growing season stream/river temperature points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted Julian day of maximum growing season stream/river temperatures in New England based on a spatial...

  6. New England observed and predicted growing season maximum stream/river temperature points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted growing season maximum stream/river temperatures in New England based on a spatial statistical...

  7. New England observed and predicted median July stream/river temperature points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted median July stream/river temperatures in New England based on a spatial statistical network...

  8. New England observed and predicted July stream/river temperature daily range points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted July stream/river temperature daily ranges in New England based on a spatial statistical network...

  9. New England observed and predicted August stream/river temperature daily range points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted August stream/river temperature daily ranges in New England based on a spatial statistical...

  10. New England observed and predicted median August stream/river temperature points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted median August stream/river temperatures in New England based on a spatial statistical network...

  11. New England observed and predicted August stream/river temperature maximum daily rate of change points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted August stream/river temperature maximum negative rate of change in New England based on a...

  12. Prediction and observation of post-admission hematoma expansion in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ovesen, Christian; Havsteen, Inger; Rosenbaum, Sverre

    2014-01-01

    within the hematoma along with the hematoma-size is reported to be predictive of hematoma expansion and outcome. Because patients tend to arrive earlier to the hospital, a larger fraction of acute ICH-patients must be expected to undergo hematoma expansion. This renders observation and radiological......Post-admission hematoma expansion in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) comprises a simultaneous major clinical problem and a possible target for medical intervention. In any case, the ability to predict and observe hematoma expansion is of great clinical importance. We review...... radiological concepts in predicting and observing post-admission hematoma expansion. Hematoma expansion can be observed within the first 24 h after symptom onset, but predominantly occurs in the early hours. Thus capturing markers of on-going bleeding on imaging techniques could predict hematoma expansion...

  13. Observed and predicted measurements of photosynthesis in a phytoplankton culture exposed to natural irradiance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marra, J.; Heinemann, K.; Landriau, G. Jr.

    1985-01-01

    Photosynthesis-irradiance (P-I) curves were produced (using artificial illumination) from samples taken at one or more times per day from a continuous culture illuminated with sunlight. The continuous culture housed an oxygen electrode used to measure photosynthesis semi-continuously. Rates of photosynthesis predicted from P-I curves agreed with photosynthesis observed in the culture only for days of low irradiance. For sunny days or for days of variable irradiance, P-I curves predicted neither the morning photosynthesis maximum nor the afternoon depression. Daily integrals of predicted and observed photosynthesis, however, were probably within the possible errors of measurement. (orig.)

  14. Prediction and Observation of Electron Instabilities and Phase Space Holes Concentrated in the Lunar Plasma Wake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchinson, Ian H.; Malaspina, David M.

    2018-05-01

    Recent theory and numerical simulation predicts that the wake of the solar wind flow past the Moon should be the site of electrostatic instabilities that give rise to electron holes. These play an important role in the eventual merging of the wake with the background solar wind. Analysis of measurements from the ARTEMIS satellites, orbiting the Moon at distances from 1.2 to 11 RM, detects holes highly concentrated in the wake, in agreement with prediction. The theory also predicts that the hole flux density observed should be hollow, peaking away from the wake axis. Observation statistics qualitatively confirm this hollowness, lending extra supporting evidence for the identification of their generation mechanism.

  15. Prediction and Observation of Post-Admission Hematoma Expansion in Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ovesen, Christian; Havsteen, Inger; Rosenbaum, Sverre; Christensen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Post-admission hematoma expansion in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) comprises a simultaneous major clinical problem and a possible target for medical intervention. In any case, the ability to predict and observe hematoma expansion is of great clinical importance. We review radiological concepts in predicting and observing post-admission hematoma expansion. Hematoma expansion can be observed within the first 24 h after symptom onset, but predominantly occurs in the early hours. Thus capturing markers of on-going bleeding on imaging techniques could predict hematoma expansion. The spot sign observed on computed tomography angiography is believed to represent on-going bleeding and is to date the most well investigated and reliable radiological predictor of hematoma expansion as well as functional outcome and mortality. On non-contrast CT, the presence of foci of hypoattenuation within the hematoma along with the hematoma-size is reported to be predictive of hematoma expansion and outcome. Because patients tend to arrive earlier to the hospital, a larger fraction of acute ICH-patients must be expected to undergo hematoma expansion. This renders observation and radiological follow-up investigations increasingly relevant. Transcranial duplex sonography has in recent years proven to be able to estimate hematoma volume with good precision and could be a valuable tool in bedside serial observation of acute ICH-patients. Future studies will elucidate, if better prediction and observation of post-admission hematoma expansion can help select patients, who will benefit from hemostatic treatment. PMID:25324825

  16. The Prediction of Task and Contextual Performance by Political Skill: A Meta-Analysis and Moderator Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bing, Mark N.; Davison, H. Kristl; Minor, Inneka; Novicevic, Milorad M.; Frink, Dwight D.

    2011-01-01

    Political skill is a relatively newly articulated construct. Despite its novelty, it has been investigated in a variety of contexts, showing promise not only as a descriptor of several organizational phenomena, but also as a predictor of job performance. Given this status, it seems appropriate to review the empirical literature to this point for…

  17. On Extrapolating Past the Range of Observed Data When Making Statistical Predictions in Ecology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul B Conn

    Full Text Available Ecologists are increasingly using statistical models to predict animal abundance and occurrence in unsampled locations. The reliability of such predictions depends on a number of factors, including sample size, how far prediction locations are from the observed data, and similarity of predictive covariates in locations where data are gathered to locations where predictions are desired. In this paper, we propose extending Cook's notion of an independent variable hull (IVH, developed originally for application with linear regression models, to generalized regression models as a way to help assess the potential reliability of predictions in unsampled areas. Predictions occurring inside the generalized independent variable hull (gIVH can be regarded as interpolations, while predictions occurring outside the gIVH can be regarded as extrapolations worthy of additional investigation or skepticism. We conduct a simulation study to demonstrate the usefulness of this metric for limiting the scope of spatial inference when conducting model-based abundance estimation from survey counts. In this case, limiting inference to the gIVH substantially reduces bias, especially when survey designs are spatially imbalanced. We also demonstrate the utility of the gIVH in diagnosing problematic extrapolations when estimating the relative abundance of ribbon seals in the Bering Sea as a function of predictive covariates. We suggest that ecologists routinely use diagnostics such as the gIVH to help gauge the reliability of predictions from statistical models (such as generalized linear, generalized additive, and spatio-temporal regression models.

  18. Short-arc measurement and fitting based on the bidirectional prediction of observed data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fei, Zhigen; Xu, Xiaojie; Georgiadis, Anthimos

    2016-02-01

    To measure a short arc is a notoriously difficult problem. In this study, the bidirectional prediction method based on the Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) to the observed data distributed along a short arc is proposed to increase the corresponding arc length, and thus improve its fitting accuracy. Firstly, the rationality of regarding observed data as a time series is discussed in accordance with the definition of a time series. Secondly, the RBFNN is constructed to predict the observed data where the interpolation method is used for enlarging the size of training examples in order to improve the learning accuracy of the RBFNN’s parameters. Finally, in the numerical simulation section, we focus on simulating how the size of the training sample and noise level influence the learning error and prediction error of the built RBFNN. Typically, the observed data coming from a 5{}^\\circ short arc are used to evaluate the performance of the Hyper method known as the ‘unbiased fitting method of circle’ with a different noise level before and after prediction. A number of simulation experiments reveal that the fitting stability and accuracy of the Hyper method after prediction are far superior to the ones before prediction.

  19. Observed Emotional and Behavioral Indicators of Motivation Predict School Readiness in Head Start Graduates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berhenke, Amanda; Miller, Alison L.; Brown, Eleanor; Seifer, Ronald; Dickstein, Susan

    2011-01-01

    Emotions and behaviors observed during challenging tasks are hypothesized to be valuable indicators of young children's motivation, the assessment of which may be particularly important for children at risk for school failure. The current study demonstrated reliability and concurrent validity of a new observational assessment of motivation in young children. Head Start graduates completed challenging puzzle and trivia tasks during their kindergarten year. Children's emotion expression and task engagement were assessed based on their observed facial and verbal expressions and behavioral cues. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed that observed persistence and shame predicted teacher ratings of children's academic achievement, whereas interest, anxiety, pride, shame, and persistence predicted children's social skills and learning-related behaviors. Children's emotional and behavioral responses to challenge thus appeared to be important indicators of school success. Observation of such responses may be a useful and valid alternative to self-report measures of motivation at this age. PMID:21949599

  20. The Rebirth of Political Socialization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemi, Richard G.; Hepburn, Mary A.

    1995-01-01

    Maintains that research on political socialization began in the late 1950s and died a premature death in the 1970s. Discusses the field's origins and downfall, and predicts a rebirth in a new and sustainable form. Outlines changes in secondary school political science education and political socialization research in other nations. (CFR)

  1. Political anticipation: observing and understanding global socio-economic trends with a view to guide the decision-making processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caillol, Marie-Hélène

    2012-01-01

    Political anticipation (PA), as practiced by Laboratoire Européen d'Anticipation Politique, is a method for improving the capacity to understand trends and forecast events with the aim of influencing events on a large or small scale. Our operational definition of anticipation is 'To foresee in order to act.' Intended to be efficient and of immediate use, PA is conceived as a decision-making tool for all types of decision-makers: politicians, economists, administrators, business leaders, private investors, educators, as well as heads of households. Everyone, in a professional or private role, makes important decisions (for employees, for business operations and commerce, for family, for investments, for jurisdictions, and for the country and economic zone, among other areas in which the polis is involved). Given the dynamics of reality in our times, every decision appears as a wager on the future. It is also related to the wish or desire to obtain the best outcome for risk assumed (which a wager entails) and the effort expended.

  2. Functional connectivity between somatosensory and motor brain areas predicts individual differences in motor learning by observing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGregor, Heather R; Gribble, Paul L

    2017-08-01

    Action observation can facilitate the acquisition of novel motor skills; however, there is considerable individual variability in the extent to which observation promotes motor learning. Here we tested the hypothesis that individual differences in brain function or structure can predict subsequent observation-related gains in motor learning. Subjects underwent an anatomical MRI scan and resting-state fMRI scans to assess preobservation gray matter volume and preobservation resting-state functional connectivity (FC), respectively. On the following day, subjects observed a video of a tutor adapting her reaches to a novel force field. After observation, subjects performed reaches in a force field as a behavioral assessment of gains in motor learning resulting from observation. We found that individual differences in resting-state FC, but not gray matter volume, predicted postobservation gains in motor learning. Preobservation resting-state FC between left primary somatosensory cortex and bilateral dorsal premotor cortex, primary motor cortex, and primary somatosensory cortex and left superior parietal lobule was positively correlated with behavioral measures of postobservation motor learning. Sensory-motor resting-state FC can thus predict the extent to which observation will promote subsequent motor learning. NEW & NOTEWORTHY We show that individual differences in preobservation brain function can predict subsequent observation-related gains in motor learning. Preobservation resting-state functional connectivity within a sensory-motor network may be used as a biomarker for the extent to which observation promotes motor learning. This kind of information may be useful if observation is to be used as a way to boost neuroplasticity and sensory-motor recovery for patients undergoing rehabilitation for diseases that impair movement such as stroke. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

  3. Bullying Predicts Reported Dating Violence and Observed Qualities in Adolescent Dating Relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Wendy E; Wolfe, David A

    2015-10-01

    The relationship between reported bullying, reported dating violence, and dating relationship quality measured through couple observations was examined. Given past research demonstrating similarity between peer and dating contexts, we expected that bullying would predict negative dating experiences. Participants with dating experience (n = 585; 238 males, M(age) = 15.06) completed self-report assessments of bullying and dating violence perpetration and victimization. One month later, 44 opposite-sex dyads (M(age) = 15.19) participated in behavioral observations. In 10-min sessions, couples were asked to rank and discuss areas of relationship conflict while being video-recorded. Qualities of the relationship were later coded by trained observers. Regression analysis revealed that bullying positively predicted dating violence perpetration and victimization. Self-reported bullying also predicted observations of lower relationship support and higher withdrawal. Age and gender interactions further qualified these findings. The bullying of boys, but not girls, was significantly related to dating violence perpetration. Age interactions showed that bullying was positively predictive of dating violence perpetration and victimization for older, but not younger adolescents. Positive affect was also negatively predicted by bullying, but only for girls. These findings add to the growing body of evidence that adolescents carry forward strategies learned in the peer context to their dating relationships. © The Author(s) 2014.

  4. Parenting and Politics: Exploring Early Moral Bases of Political Orientation

    OpenAIRE

    Janoff-Bulman, Ronnie; Carnes, Nate C.; Sheikh, Sana

    2014-01-01

    Based on Lakoff’s (2002) Strict Father and Nurturant Parent metaphors for political conservatism and liberalism respectively, two studies explored parenting styles, political ideology, and the moral orientations that might link the two. Restrictive parenting (by both mother and father) predicted political conservatism, and this path was mediated by a strong Social Order orientation (Study 1) reflecting, more broadly, an inhibition-based proscriptive morality (Study 2). Political liberalism wa...

  5. Model Predictive Flight Control System with Full State Observer using H∞ Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanwale, Jitu; Singh, Dhan Jeet

    2018-03-01

    This paper presents the application of the model predictive approach to design a flight control system (FCS) for longitudinal dynamics of a fixed wing aircraft. Longitudinal dynamics is derived for a conventional aircraft. Open loop aircraft response analysis is carried out. Simulation studies are illustrated to prove the efficacy of the proposed model predictive controller using H ∞ state observer. The estimation criterion used in the {H}_{∞} observer design is to minimize the worst possible effects of the modelling errors and additive noise on the parameter estimation.

  6. Political participation of registered nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandenhouten, Christine L; Malakar, Crystalmichelle L; Kubsch, Sylvia; Block, Derryl E; Gallagher-Lepak, Susan

    2011-08-01

    Level of political participation and factors contributing to participation were measured among Midwest RNs (n = 468) via an online survey (Cronbach's α = .95). Respondents reported engaging in primarily "low cost" activities (e.g., voting, discussing politics, and contacting elected officials), with fewer reporting speaking at public gatherings, participating in demonstrations, and membership in nursing organizations. Psychological engagement was most predictive (p political participation with the dimensions of political interest, political efficacy, and political information/knowledge highly significant (p political participation (p political content and did not prepare them for political participation. Findings showed that nurse educators and leaders of professional nursing organizations need to model and cultivate greater psychological engagement among students and nurses.

  7. Observer performance in detecting multiple radiographic signals: prediction and analysis using a generalized ROC approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metz, C.E.; Starr, S.J.; Lusted, L.B.

    1975-01-01

    The theories of decision processes and signal detection provide a framework for the evaluation of observer performance. Some radiologic procedures involve a search for multiple similar lesions, as in gallstone or pneumoconiosis examinations. A model is presented which attempts to predict, from the conventional receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve describing the detectability of a single visual signal in a radiograph, observer performance in an experiment requiring detection of more than one such signal. An experiment is described which tests the validity of this model for the case of detecting the presence of zero, one, or two low-contrast radiographic images of a two-mm.-diameter lucite bead embedded in radiographic mottle. Results from six observers, including three radiologists, confirm the validity of the model and suggest that human observer performance for relatively complex detection tasks can be predicted from the results of simpler experiments

  8. Robust Predictive Functional Control for Flight Vehicles Based on Nonlinear Disturbance Observer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yinhui Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel robust predictive functional control based on nonlinear disturbance observer is investigated in order to address the control system design for flight vehicles with significant uncertainties, external disturbances, and measurement noise. Firstly, the nonlinear longitudinal dynamics of the flight vehicle are transformed into linear-like state-space equations with state-dependent coefficient matrices. And then the lumped disturbances are considered in the linear structure predictive model of the predictive functional control to increase the precision of the predictive output and resolve the intractable mismatched disturbance problem. As the lumped disturbances cannot be derived or measured directly, the nonlinear disturbance observer is applied to estimate the lumped disturbances, which are then introduced to the predictive functional control to replace the unknown actual lumped disturbances. Consequently, the robust predictive functional control for the flight vehicle is proposed. Compared with the existing designs, the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed flight control are illustrated and validated in various simulation conditions.

  9. Observational Evidence for Two Cosmological Predictions Made by Bit-String Physics; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noyes, H. Pierre

    2001-01-01

    A decade ago bit-string physics predicted that the baryon/photon ratio at the time of nucleogenesis(eta)= 1 1/256(sup 4) and that the dark matter/baryonic matter ratio(Omega)(sub DM)/(Omega)(sub B)= 12.7. Accepting that the normalized Hubble constant is constrained observationally to lie in the range 0.6 and lt; h(sub 0) and lt; 0.8, this translates into a prediction that 0.325 and gt;(Omega)(sub M) and gt; 0.183. This and a prediction by E.D. Jones, using a model-independent argument and ideas with which bit-string physics is not inconsistent, that the cosmological constant(Omega)(sub(Lambda))= 0.6(+-) 0.1 are in reasonable agreement with recent cosmological observations, including the BOOMERANG data

  10. AAA gunnermodel based on observer theory. [predicting a gunner's tracking response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kou, R. S.; Glass, B. C.; Day, C. N.; Vikmanis, M. M.

    1978-01-01

    The Luenberger observer theory is used to develop a predictive model of a gunner's tracking response in antiaircraft artillery systems. This model is composed of an observer, a feedback controller and a remnant element. An important feature of the model is that the structure is simple, hence a computer simulation requires only a short execution time. A parameter identification program based on the least squares curve fitting method and the Gauss Newton gradient algorithm is developed to determine the parameter values of the gunner model. Thus, a systematic procedure exists for identifying model parameters for a given antiaircraft tracking task. Model predictions of tracking errors are compared with human tracking data obtained from manned simulation experiments. Model predictions are in excellent agreement with the empirical data for several flyby and maneuvering target trajectories.

  11. Blinded Observer Evaluation of Distal Skin Temperature for Predicting Lateral Infraclavicular Block Success

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asghar, Semera; Lange, Kai H W; Lundstrøm, Lars H

    2015-01-01

    as a diagnostic test for predicting a successful lateral infraclavicular block. METHODS: Blinded observers investigated temperature difference between the blocked and the nonblocked hands of 40 patients. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of a positive and a negative test were estimated......BACKGROUND: Changes in digit skin temperature may be used to predict and determine upper limb nerve block success. We investigated whether a temperature difference between the blocked and the nonblocked hands, simply registered by touching the skin of the 5th and 2nd digit was valid and reliable...... for evaluating the validity of a temperature difference for predicting a successful lateral infraclavicular block defined by sensory and motor block of all 4 major nerves (musculocutaneous, radial, ulnar, and median nerves). κ statistics of interobserver agreement were used for evaluating the reliability...

  12. Quark matter formation in high energy nucleus-nucleus collisions - predictions and observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otterlund, I.

    1983-01-01

    In this talk I give a short summary of the recent discussion around predictions and possible observations of quark-gluon plasma and fireballs in ultrarelativistic nucleus-nucleus collisions. In particular this talk is focused on heavy ion reactions at 200 A GeV. (orig./HSI)

  13. Results of Instrument Observations and Adaptive Prediction of Thermoabrasion of Banks of the Vilyui Reservoir

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Velikin, S. A.; Sobol’, I. S.; Sobol’, S. V.; Khokhlov, D. N.

    2013-01-01

    Quantitative data derived from observations of reformation of the thermoabrasive banks of the Viliyui Reservoir in Yakutia during the service period from 1972 through 2011, and results of analytical prediction of bank formations over the next 20 years for purposes of monitoring the ecological safety of this water body are presented

  14. Results of Instrument Observations and Adaptive Prediction of Thermoabrasion of Banks of the Vilyui Reservoir

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Velikin, S. A. [Vilyuisk Permafrost Scientific-Research Station, Institute of Permafrost Science, Siberian Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Russian Federation); Sobol' , I. S.; Sobol' , S. V.; Khokhlov, D. N. [Nizhnii Novgorod State Architectural and Civil-Engineering University (Russian Federation)

    2013-11-15

    Quantitative data derived from observations of reformation of the thermoabrasive banks of the Viliyui Reservoir in Yakutia during the service period from 1972 through 2011, and results of analytical prediction of bank formations over the next 20 years for purposes of monitoring the ecological safety of this water body are presented.

  15. Validation and Inter-comparison Against Observations of GODAE Ocean View Ocean Prediction Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, J.; Davidson, F. J. M.; Smith, G. C.; Lu, Y.; Hernandez, F.; Regnier, C.; Drevillon, M.; Ryan, A.; Martin, M.; Spindler, T. D.; Brassington, G. B.; Oke, P. R.

    2016-02-01

    For weather forecasts, validation of forecast performance is done at the end user level as well as by the meteorological forecast centers. In the development of Ocean Prediction Capacity, the same level of care for ocean forecast performance and validation is needed. Herein we present results from a validation against observations of 6 Global Ocean Forecast Systems under the GODAE OceanView International Collaboration Network. These systems include the Global Ocean Ice Forecast System (GIOPS) developed by the Government of Canada, two systems PSY3 and PSY4 from the French Mercator-Ocean Ocean Forecasting Group, the FOAM system from UK met office, HYCOM-RTOFS from NOAA/NCEP/NWA of USA, and the Australian Bluelink-OceanMAPS system from the CSIRO, the Australian Meteorological Bureau and the Australian Navy.The observation data used in the comparison are sea surface temperature, sub-surface temperature, sub-surface salinity, sea level anomaly, and sea ice total concentration data. Results of the inter-comparison demonstrate forecast performance limits, strengths and weaknesses of each of the six systems. This work establishes validation protocols and routines by which all new prediction systems developed under the CONCEPTS Collaborative Network will be benchmarked prior to approval for operations. This includes anticipated delivery of CONCEPTS regional prediction systems over the next two years including a pan Canadian 1/12th degree resolution ice ocean prediction system and limited area 1/36th degree resolution prediction systems. The validation approach of comparing forecasts to observations at the time and location of the observation is called Class 4 metrics. It has been adopted by major international ocean prediction centers, and will be recommended to JCOMM-WMO as routine validation approach for operational oceanography worldwide.

  16. Observed and Predicted Risk of Breast Cancer Death in Randomized Trials on Breast Cancer Screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Autier, Philippe; Boniol, Mathieu; Smans, Michel; Sullivan, Richard; Boyle, Peter

    2016-01-01

    The role of breast screening in breast cancer mortality declines is debated. Screening impacts cancer mortality through decreasing the number of advanced cancers with poor diagnosis, while cancer treatment works through decreasing the case-fatality rate. Hence, reductions in cancer death rates thanks to screening should directly reflect reductions in advanced cancer rates. We verified whether in breast screening trials, the observed reductions in the risk of breast cancer death could be predicted from reductions of advanced breast cancer rates. The Greater New York Health Insurance Plan trial (HIP) is the only breast screening trial that reported stage-specific cancer fatality for the screening and for the control group separately. The Swedish Two-County trial (TCT)) reported size-specific fatalities for cancer patients in both screening and control groups. We computed predicted numbers of breast cancer deaths, from which we calculated predicted relative risks (RR) and (95% confidence intervals). The Age trial in England performed its own calculations of predicted relative risk. The observed and predicted RR of breast cancer death were 0.72 (0.56-0.94) and 0.98 (0.77-1.24) in the HIP trial, and 0.79 (0.78-1.01) and 0.90 (0.80-1.01) in the Age trial. In the TCT, the observed RR was 0.73 (0.62-0.87), while the predicted RR was 0.89 (0.75-1.05) if overdiagnosis was assumed to be negligible and 0.83 (0.70-0.97) if extra cancers were excluded. In breast screening trials, factors other than screening have contributed to reductions in the risk of breast cancer death most probably by reducing the fatality of advanced cancers in screening groups. These factors were the better management of breast cancer patients and the underreporting of breast cancer as the underlying cause of death. Breast screening trials should publish stage-specific fatalities observed in each group.

  17. Predicted versus observed cosmic-ray-produced noble gases in lunar samples: improved Kr production ratios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Regnier, S.; Hohenberg, C.M.; Marti, K.; Reedy, R.C.

    1979-01-01

    New sets of cross sections for the production of krypton isotopes from targets of Rb, Sr, Y, and Zr were constructed primarily on the bases of experimental excitation functions for Kr production from Y. These cross sections were used to calculate galactic-cosmic-ray and solar-proton production rates for Kr isotopes in the moon. Spallation Kr data obtained from ilmenite separates of rocks 10017 and 10047 are reported. Production rates and isotopic ratios for cosmogenic Kr observed in ten well-documented lunar samples and in ilmenite separates and bulk samples from several lunar rocks with long but unknown irradiation histories were compared with predicted rates and ratios. The agreements were generally quite good. Erosion of rock surfaces affected rates or ratios for only near-surface samples, where solar-proton production is important. There were considerable spreads in predicted-to-observed production rates of 83 Kr, due at least in part to uncertainties in chemical abundances. The 78 Kr/ 83 Kr ratios were predicted quite well for samples with a wide range of Zr/Sr abundance ratios. The calculated 80 Kr/ 83 Kr ratios were greater than the observed ratios when production by the 79 Br(n,γ) reaction was included, but were slightly undercalculated if the Br reaction was omitted; these results suggest that Br(n,γ)-produced Kr is not retained well by lunar rocks. The productions of 81 Kr and 82 Kr were overcalculated by approximately 10% relative to 83 Kr. Predicted-to-observed 84 Kr/ 83 ratios scattered considerably, possibly because of uncertainties in corrections for trapped and fission components and in cross sections for 84 Kr production. Most predicted 84 Kr and 86 Kr production rates were lower than observed. Shielding depths of several Apollo 11 rocks were determined from the measured 78 Kr/ 83 Kr ratios of ilmenite separates. 4 figures, 5 tables

  18. Political innovations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Eva

    2017-01-01

    are mainly interested in assessing and promoting innovations in public service delivery, but have paid little or no attention to the need for innovations in polity, politics and policy. This article develops a research agenda for studying innovations in political institutions, in the political process...... and in policy outputs. It proposes a number of research themes related to political innovations that call for scholarly attention, and identifies push and pull factors influencing the likelihood that these themes will be addressed in future research....

  19. Moral politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rapp, Carolin; Traunmüller, Richard; Freitag, Markus

    2014-01-01

    This article combines the research strands of moral politics and political behavior by focusing on the effect of individual and contextual religiosity on individual vote decisions in popular initiatives and public referenda concerning morally charged issues. We rely on a total of 13 surveys with 1...... American research on moral politics, direct democracies, and the public role of religion....

  20. Office Politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storm, Paula; Kelly, Robert; deVries, Susann

    2008-01-01

    People and organizations are inherently political. Library workplace environments have zones of tension and dynamics just like any corporation, often leading to the formation of political camps. These different cliques influence productivity and work-related issues and, at worst, give meetings the feel of the Camp David negotiations. Politics are…

  1. Composite control for raymond mill based on model predictive control and disturbance observer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Niu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In the raymond mill grinding process, precise control of operating load is vital for the high product quality. However, strong external disturbances, such as variations of ore size and ore hardness, usually cause great performance degradation. It is not easy to control the current of raymond mill constant. Several control strategies have been proposed. However, most of them (such as proportional–integral–derivative and model predictive control reject disturbances just through feedback regulation, which may lead to poor control performance in the presence of strong disturbances. For improving disturbance rejection, a control method based on model predictive control and disturbance observer is put forward in this article. The scheme employs disturbance observer as feedforward compensation and model predictive control controller as feedback regulation. The test results illustrate that compared with model predictive control method, the proposed disturbance observer–model predictive control method can obtain significant superiority in disturbance rejection, such as shorter settling time and smaller peak overshoot under strong disturbances.

  2. PREDICTION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM STRENGTH FROM INNER HELIOSPHERIC IN SITU OBSERVATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kubicka, M.; Möstl, C.; Amerstorfer, T.; Boakes, P. D.; Törmänen, O. [Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, 8042 Graz (Austria); Feng, L. [Purple Mountain Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, West Beijing Road 2 Nanjing, 210008 (China); Eastwood, J. P., E-mail: christian.moestl@oeaw.ac.at [Space and Atmospheric Physics, The Blackett Laboratory, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom)

    2016-12-20

    Prediction of the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on Earth strongly depends on knowledge of the interplanetary magnetic field southward component, B{sub z}. Predicting the strength and duration of B{sub z} inside a CME with sufficient accuracy is currently impossible, forming the so-called B{sub z} problem. Here, we provide a proof-of-concept of a new method for predicting the CME arrival time, speed, B{sub z}, and resulting disturbance storm time ( Dst ) index on Earth based only on magnetic field data, measured in situ in the inner heliosphere (<1 au). On 2012 June 12–16, three approximately Earthward-directed and interacting CMEs were observed by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory imagers and Venus Express (VEX) in situ at 0.72 au, 6° away from the Sun–Earth line. The CME kinematics are calculated using the drag-based and WSA–Enlil models, constrained by the arrival time at VEX , resulting in the CME arrival time and speed on Earth. The CME magnetic field strength is scaled with a power law from VEX to Wind . Our investigation shows promising results for the Dst forecast (predicted: −96 and −114 nT (from 2 Dst models); observed: −71 nT), for the arrival speed (predicted: 531 ± 23 km s{sup −1}; observed: 488 ± 30 km s{sup −1}), and for the timing (6 ± 1 hr after the actual arrival time). The prediction lead time is 21 hr. The method may be applied to vector magnetic field data from a spacecraft at an artificial Lagrange point between the Sun and Earth or to data taken by any spacecraft temporarily crossing the Sun–Earth line.

  3. Human dorsal striatum encodes prediction errors during observational learning of instrumental actions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Jeffrey C; Dunne, Simon; Furey, Teresa; O'Doherty, John P

    2012-01-01

    The dorsal striatum plays a key role in the learning and expression of instrumental reward associations that are acquired through direct experience. However, not all learning about instrumental actions require direct experience. Instead, humans and other animals are also capable of acquiring instrumental actions by observing the experiences of others. In this study, we investigated the extent to which human dorsal striatum is involved in observational as well as experiential instrumental reward learning. Human participants were scanned with fMRI while they observed a confederate over a live video performing an instrumental conditioning task to obtain liquid juice rewards. Participants also performed a similar instrumental task for their own rewards. Using a computational model-based analysis, we found reward prediction errors in the dorsal striatum not only during the experiential learning condition but also during observational learning. These results suggest a key role for the dorsal striatum in learning instrumental associations, even when those associations are acquired purely by observing others.

  4. Developing a global ocean observing system that prioritises ecosystem variables from a political and societal point of view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miloslavich, P.; Bax, N. J.; Simmons, S. E.; Appeltans, W.; Garcia, M.

    2016-02-01

    The Biology and Ecosystems Panel of GOOS aims to develop and coordinate efforts to implement a sustained and targeted global ocean observation system. This system will be driven by societal needs (including the Sustainable Development Goals), and identify Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs) to inform priority scientific and societal questions that will facilitate critical policy development and management decision-making on ocean and coastal resource sustainability and health. Mature EOVs need to have global relevance and the capacity for global measurement. Our goal is to implement at least one (set of) mature EOVs by 2019, and identify a further three (sets of) pilot EOVs with a clear pathway to maturity. Our initial work includes (1) identifying drivers and pressures of societal and scientific needs, and (2) identifying internationally agreed goals that need sustained global observations of ocean biological & ecosystem variables for a healthy ocean. We reviewed 24 major conventions/international organizations (including the CBD and 16 UN related) to identify the societal needs these organizations address through their goals, and to produce a set of overlapping objectives. Main drivers identified in these conventions were: knowledge (science/data access), development (sustainable economic growth), conservation (biodiversity & ecosystems), sustainable use (biodiversity & resources), environmental quality (health), capacity building (technology transfer), food security, threat prevention and impact mitigation (to different pressures) and improved management (integrated ecosystem approach). The main pressures identified were climate change, ocean acidification, extreme weather events, overfishing/ overexploitation, pollution/ eutrophication, mining, solid wastes. Our next step will be to develop consensus with the observing community about the EOVs that will meet these needs and support the expansion of these identified EOVs into successful global observing systems.

  5. Office gel sonovaginography for the prediction of posterior deep infiltrating endometriosis: a multicenter prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, S; Lu, C; Hardy, N; Casikar, I; Reid, G; Cario, G; Chou, D; Almashat, D; Condous, G

    2014-12-01

    To use office gel sonovaginography (SVG) to predict posterior deep infiltrating endometriosis (DIE) in women undergoing laparoscopy. This was a multicenter prospective observational study carried out between January 2009 and February 2013. All women were of reproductive age, had a history of chronic pelvic pain and underwent office gel SVG assessment for the prediction of posterior compartment DIE prior to laparoscopic endometriosis surgery. Gel SVG findings were compared with laparoscopic findings to determine the diagnostic accuracy of office gel SVG for the prediction of posterior compartment DIE. In total, 189 women underwent preoperative gel SVG and laparoscopy for endometriosis. At laparoscopy, 57 (30%) women had posterior DIE and 43 (23%) had rectosigmoid/anterior rectal DIE. For the prediction of rectosigmoid/anterior rectal (i.e. bowel) DIE, gel SVG had an accuracy of 92%, sensitivity of 88%, specificity of 93%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 79%, negative predictive value (NPV) of 97%, positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of 12.9 and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) of 0.12 (P = 3.98E-25); for posterior vaginal wall and rectovaginal septum (RVS) DIE, respectively, the accuracy was 95% and 95%, sensitivity was 18% and 18%, specificity was 99% and 100%, PPV was 67% and 100%, NPV was 95% and 95%, LR+ was 32.4 and infinity and LR- was 0.82 and 0.82 (P = 0.009 and P = 0.003). Office gel SVG appears to be an effective outpatient imaging technique for the prediction of bowel DIE, with a higher accuracy for the prediction of rectosigmoid compared with anterior rectal DIE. Although the sensitivity for vaginal and RVS DIE was limited, gel SVG had a high specificity and NPV for all forms of posterior DIE, indicating that a negative gel SVG examination is highly suggestive of the absence of DIE at laparoscopy. Copyright © 2014 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Space, politics, and the political

    OpenAIRE

    dikec , mustafa

    1987-01-01

    International audience; Introduction Geography and politics'', Gottmann wrote in 1980, ``have long been in search of each other'' (page 11). Debates in the literature suggest not only that they have found each other, but also that the encounter has instigated, notably in the last decade or so, a body of literature seeking to think space politically, and to think politics spatially. This is not to suggest that previous work on space was apolitical, nor to suggest that previous work on politics...

  7. Advancing coastal ocean modelling, analysis, and prediction for the US Integrated Ocean Observing System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkin, John L.; Rosenfeld, Leslie; Allen, Arthur; Baltes, Rebecca; Baptista, Antonio; He, Ruoying; Hogan, Patrick; Kurapov, Alexander; Mehra, Avichal; Quintrell, Josie; Schwab, David; Signell, Richard; Smith, Jane

    2017-01-01

    This paper outlines strategies that would advance coastal ocean modelling, analysis and prediction as a complement to the observing and data management activities of the coastal components of the US Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS®) and the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS). The views presented are the consensus of a group of US-based researchers with a cross-section of coastal oceanography and ocean modelling expertise and community representation drawn from Regional and US Federal partners in IOOS. Priorities for research and development are suggested that would enhance the value of IOOS observations through model-based synthesis, deliver better model-based information products, and assist the design, evaluation, and operation of the observing system itself. The proposed priorities are: model coupling, data assimilation, nearshore processes, cyberinfrastructure and model skill assessment, modelling for observing system design, evaluation and operation, ensemble prediction, and fast predictors. Approaches are suggested to accomplish substantial progress in a 3–8-year timeframe. In addition, the group proposes steps to promote collaboration between research and operations groups in Regional Associations, US Federal Agencies, and the international ocean research community in general that would foster coordination on scientific and technical issues, and strengthen federal–academic partnerships benefiting IOOS stakeholders and end users.

  8. The missing link: Predicting connectomes from noisy and partially observed tract tracing data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hinne, Max; Meijers, Annet; Bakker, Rembrandt

    2017-01-01

    a high chance of being connected, while regions far apart are most likely disconnected in the connectome. After learning the latent embedding from the connections that we did observe, the latent space allows us to predict connections that have not been probed previously. We apply the methodology to two....... In this paper, we suggest that instead of probing all possible connections, hitherto unknown connections may be predicted from the data that is already available. Our approach uses a 'latent space model' that embeds the connectivity in an abstract physical space. Regions that are close in the latent space have...... connectivity data sets of the macaque, where we demonstrate that the latent space model is successful in predicting unobserved connectivity, outperforming two baselines and an alternative model in nearly all cases. Furthermore, we show how the latent spatial embedding may be used to integrate multimodal...

  9. A perspective on sustained marine observations for climate modelling and prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunstone, Nick J

    2014-09-28

    Here, I examine some of the many varied ways in which sustained global ocean observations are used in numerical modelling activities. In particular, I focus on the use of ocean observations to initialize predictions in ocean and climate models. Examples are also shown of how models can be used to assess the impact of both current ocean observations and to simulate that of potential new ocean observing platforms. The ocean has never been better observed than it is today and similarly ocean models have never been as capable at representing the real ocean as they are now. However, there remain important unanswered questions that can likely only be addressed via future improvements in ocean observations. In particular, ocean observing systems need to respond to the needs of the burgeoning field of near-term climate predictions. Although new ocean observing platforms promise exciting new discoveries, there is a delicate balance to be made between their funding and that of the current ocean observing system. Here, I identify the need to secure long-term funding for ocean observing platforms as they mature, from a mainly research exercise to an operational system for sustained observation over climate change time scales. At the same time, considerable progress continues to be made via ship-based observing campaigns and I highlight some that are dedicated to addressing uncertainties in key ocean model parametrizations. The use of ocean observations to understand the prominent long time scale changes observed in the North Atlantic is another focus of this paper. The exciting first decade of monitoring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation by the RAPID-MOCHA array is highlighted. The use of ocean and climate models as tools to further probe the drivers of variability seen in such time series is another exciting development. I also discuss the need for a concerted combined effort from climate models and ocean observations in order to understand the current slow

  10. Comparison of Model Predictions and Laboratory Observations of Transgene Frequencies in Continuously-Breeding Mosquito Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valerio, Laura; North, Ace; Collins, C. Matilda; Mumford, John D.; Facchinelli, Luca; Spaccapelo, Roberta; Benedict, Mark Q.

    2016-01-01

    The persistence of transgenes in the environment is a consideration in risk assessments of transgenic organisms. Combining mathematical models that predict the frequency of transgenes and experimental demonstrations can validate the model predictions, or can detect significant biological deviations that were neither apparent nor included as model parameters. In order to assess the correlation between predictions and observations, models were constructed to estimate the frequency of a transgene causing male sexual sterility in simulated populations of a malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae that were seeded with transgenic females at various proportions. Concurrently, overlapping-generation laboratory populations similar to those being modeled were initialized with various starting transgene proportions, and the subsequent proportions of transgenic individuals in populations were determined weekly until the transgene disappeared. The specific transgene being tested contained a homing endonuclease gene expressed in testes, I-PpoI, that cleaves the ribosomal DNA and results in complete male sexual sterility with no effect on female fertility. The transgene was observed to disappear more rapidly than the model predicted in all cases. The period before ovipositions that contained no transgenic progeny ranged from as little as three weeks after cage initiation to as long as 11 weeks. PMID:27669312

  11. Comparison of Model Predictions and Laboratory Observations of Transgene Frequencies in Continuously-Breeding Mosquito Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Valerio

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The persistence of transgenes in the environment is a consideration in risk assessments of transgenic organisms. Combining mathematical models that predict the frequency of transgenes and experimental demonstrations can validate the model predictions, or can detect significant biological deviations that were neither apparent nor included as model parameters. In order to assess the correlation between predictions and observations, models were constructed to estimate the frequency of a transgene causing male sexual sterility in simulated populations of a malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae that were seeded with transgenic females at various proportions. Concurrently, overlapping-generation laboratory populations similar to those being modeled were initialized with various starting transgene proportions, and the subsequent proportions of transgenic individuals in populations were determined weekly until the transgene disappeared. The specific transgene being tested contained a homing endonuclease gene expressed in testes, I-PpoI, that cleaves the ribosomal DNA and results in complete male sexual sterility with no effect on female fertility. The transgene was observed to disappear more rapidly than the model predicted in all cases. The period before ovipositions that contained no transgenic progeny ranged from as little as three weeks after cage initiation to as long as 11 weeks.

  12. Prediction of immediate postoperative pain using the analgesia/nociception index: a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boselli, E; Bouvet, L; Bégou, G; Dabouz, R; Davidson, J; Deloste, J-Y; Rahali, N; Zadam, A; Allaouchiche, B

    2014-04-01

    The analgesia/nociception index (ANI) is derived from heart rate variability, ranging from 0 (maximal nociception) to 100 (maximal analgesia), to reflect the analgesia/nociception balance during general anaesthesia. This should be correlated with immediate postoperative pain in the post-anaesthesia care unit (PACU). The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of ANI measured at arousal from general anaesthesia to predict immediate postoperative pain on arrival in PACU. Two hundred patients undergoing ear, nose, and throat or lower limb orthopaedic surgery with general anaesthesia using an inhalational agent and remifentanil were included in this prospective observational study. The ANI was measured immediately before tracheal extubation and pain intensity was assessed within 10 min of arrival in PACU using a 0-10 numerical rating scale (NRS). The relationship between ANI and NRS was assessed using linear regression. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the performance of ANI to predict NRS>3. A negative linear relationship was observed between ANI immediately before extubation and NRS on arrival in PACU. Using a threshold of 3 were both 86% with 92% negative predictive value, corresponding to an area under the ROC curve of 0.89. The measurement of ANI immediately before extubation after inhalation-remifentanil anaesthesia was significantly associated with pain intensity on arrival in PACU. The performance of ANI for the prediction of immediate postoperative pain is good and may assist physicians in optimizing acute pain management. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01796249.

  13. Predictive Sliding Mode Control for Attitude Tracking of Hypersonic Vehicles Using Fuzzy Disturbance Observer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianlei Cheng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a predictive sliding mode control (PSMC scheme for attitude control of hypersonic vehicle (HV with system uncertainties and external disturbances based on an improved fuzzy disturbance observer (IFDO. First, for a class of uncertain affine nonlinear systems with system uncertainties and external disturbances, we propose a predictive sliding mode control based on fuzzy disturbance observer (FDO-PSMC, which is used to estimate the composite disturbances containing system uncertainties and external disturbances. Afterward, to enhance the composite disturbances rejection performance, an improved FDO-PSMC (IFDO-PSMC is proposed by incorporating a hyperbolic tangent function with FDO to compensate for the approximate error of FDO. Finally, considering the actuator dynamics, the proposed IFDO-PSMC is applied to attitude control system design for HV to track the guidance commands with high precision and strong robustness. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed attitude control scheme.

  14. A Predictive Velocity Observer in Wire Bonder’s Control System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Zhou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Wire bonder is a typical high speed machine. The motion speed of XY-stage is the key factor of bonding efficiency. However, phase lag elements in the servo system limit the bandwidth and slow down the system’s response. A predictive velocity observer is proposed to compensate for those phase lags. Then, the velocity loop controller can be designed as for a servo system which does not have those phase lags. Loop gains are enlarged and bandwidth is enlarged correspondingly. Then, the motion speed is improved and settling time is decreased. Experiment results verify that the predictive velocity observer provided a significant phase lead and the performance of wire bonder is improved.

  15. Can the cerebroplacental ratio (CPR) predict intrapartum fetal compromise? : a prospective observational study

    OpenAIRE

    Page, Ann-Sophie; Page, Geert; Dehaene, Isabelle; Roets, Ellen; Roelens, Kristien

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the potential clinical use of serial fetal CPR measurements during the last month of pregnancy for the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome in unselected low-risk pregnancies. Methods: A multicenter prospective observational cohort study in 315 consecutively recruited low-risk pregnancies. All eligible pregnancies underwent serial sonographic evaluation of fetal weight and Doppler indices at two week intervals, from 36 weeks gestation until delivery. Data were ...

  16. The Early Political Web (1995-2005) :A ten-year observational research seeking evidence of eDemocracy in the information architecture of political parties web sites worldwide

    OpenAIRE

    Ricci, Andrea

    2013-01-01

    Scholarly interest for the impact of technologies on democracy has raised in parallel to the decline of political participation. Technology has often been seen as either one of the causes of the crisis of representative democracy or as a powerful remedy to heal the negative externalities generated by party oligopolies. The study of the impact of new media in party politics or presidential elections dates back the forties (with the outgrowth of radio) and has evolved in cyclical waves until to...

  17. Sediment sorting along tidal sand waves: A comparison between field observations and theoretical predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Oyen, Tomas; Blondeaux, Paolo; Van den Eynde, Dries

    2013-07-01

    A site-by-site comparison between field observations and theoretical predictions of sediment sorting patterns along tidal sand waves is performed for ten locations in the North Sea. At each site, the observed grain size distribution along the bottom topography and the geometry of the bed forms is described in detail and the procedure used to obtain the model parameters is summarized. The model appears to accurately describe the wavelength of the observed sand waves for the majority of the locations; still providing a reliable estimate for the other sites. In addition, it is found that for seven out of the ten locations, the qualitative sorting process provided by the model agrees with the observed grain size distribution. A discussion of the site-by-site comparison is provided which, taking into account uncertainties in the field data, indicates that the model grasps the major part of the key processes controlling the phenomenon.

  18. The Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task (SPORT): an International Science Mission Using a Cubesat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spann, James; Swenson, Charles; Durao, Otavio; Loures, Luis; Heelis, Rod; Bishop, Rebecca; Le, Guan; Abdu, Mangalathayil; Krause, Linda; Fry, Craig; hide

    2017-01-01

    The Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task (SPORT) is a 6U CubeSat mission to address the compelling but difficult problem of understanding the preconditions leading to equatorial plasma bubbles. The scientific literature describes the preconditions in both the plasma drifts and the density profiles related to bubble formations that occur several hours later in the evening. Most of the scientific discovery has resulted from observations at a single site, within a single longitude sector, from Jicamarca, Peru. SPORT will provide a systematic study of the state of the pre-bubble conditions at all longitudes sectors to enhance understanding between geography and magnetic geometry. SPORT is an international partnership between National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE), and the Technical Aeronautics Institute under the Brazilian Air Force Command Department (DCTA/ITA), and encouraged by U.S. Southern Command. This talk will present an overview of the SPORT mission, observation strategy, and science objectives to improve predictions of ionospheric disturbances that affect radio propagation of telecommunication signals. The science goals will be accomplished by a unique combination of satellite observations from a nearly circular middle inclination orbit and the extensive operation of ground based observations from South America near the magnetic equator.

  19. [Political psychology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resch, Mária; Bella, Tamás

    2013-04-21

    In Hungary one can mostly find references to the psychological processes of politics in the writings of publicists, public opinion pollsters, philosophers, social psychologists, and political analysts. It would be still important if not only legal scientists focusing on political institutions or sociologist-politologists concentrating on social structures could analyse the psychological aspects of political processes; but one could also do so through the application of the methods of political psychology. The authors review the history of political psychology, its position vis-à-vis other fields of science and the essential interfaces through which this field of science, which is still to be discovered in Hungary, connects to other social sciences. As far as its methodology comprising psycho-biographical analyses, questionnaire-based queries, cognitive mapping of interviews and statements are concerned, it is identical with the psychiatric tools of medical sciences. In the next part of this paper, the focus is shifted to the essence and contents of political psychology. Group dynamics properties, voters' attitudes, leaders' personalities and the behavioural patterns demonstrated by them in different political situations, authoritativeness, games, and charisma are all essential components of political psychology, which mostly analyses psychological-psychiatric processes and also involves medical sciences by relying on cognitive and behavioural sciences. This paper describes political psychology, which is basically part of social sciences, still, being an interdisciplinary science, has several ties to medical sciences through psychological and psychiatric aspects.

  20. A new theory of plant-microbe nutrient competition resolves inconsistencies between observations and model predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Qing; Riley, William J; Tang, Jinyun

    2017-04-01

    Terrestrial plants assimilate anthropogenic CO 2 through photosynthesis and synthesizing new tissues. However, sustaining these processes requires plants to compete with microbes for soil nutrients, which therefore calls for an appropriate understanding and modeling of nutrient competition mechanisms in Earth System Models (ESMs). Here, we survey existing plant-microbe competition theories and their implementations in ESMs. We found no consensus regarding the representation of nutrient competition and that observational and theoretical support for current implementations are weak. To reconcile this situation, we applied the Equilibrium Chemistry Approximation (ECA) theory to plant-microbe nitrogen competition in a detailed grassland 15 N tracer study and found that competition theories in current ESMs fail to capture observed patterns and the ECA prediction simplifies the complex nature of nutrient competition and quantitatively matches the 15 N observations. Since plant carbon dynamics are strongly modulated by soil nutrient acquisition, we conclude that (1) predicted nutrient limitation effects on terrestrial carbon accumulation by existing ESMs may be biased and (2) our ECA-based approach may improve predictions by mechanistically representing plant-microbe nutrient competition. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  1. Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis of a Severe Downslope Windstorm in Complex Terrain: Implications for Forecast Predictability Scales and Targeted Observing Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    observations, linear regression finds the straight line that explains the linear relationship of the sample. This line is given by the equation y = mx + b...SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF A SEVERE DOWNSLOPE WINDSTORM IN COMPLEX TERRAIN: IMPLICATIONS FOR FORECAST PREDICTABILITY SCALES AND TARGETED OBSERVING...SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF A SEVERE DOWNSLOPE WINDSTORM IN COMPLEX TERRAIN: IMPLICATIONS FOR FORECAST PREDICTABILITY SCALES AND TARGETED OBSERVING NETWORKS

  2. Vaginal birth after caesarean section prediction models: a UK comparative observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mone, Fionnuala; Harrity, Conor; Mackie, Adam; Segurado, Ricardo; Toner, Brenda; McCormick, Timothy R; Currie, Aoife; McAuliffe, Fionnuala M

    2015-10-01

    Primarily, to assess the performance of three statistical models in predicting successful vaginal birth in patients attempting a trial of labour after one previous lower segment caesarean section (TOLAC). The statistically most reliable models were subsequently subjected to validation testing in a local antenatal population. A retrospective observational study was performed with study data collected from the Northern Ireland Maternity Service Database (NIMATs). The study population included all women that underwent a TOLAC (n=385) from 2010 to 2012 in a regional UK obstetric unit. Data was collected from the Northern Ireland Maternity Service Database (NIMATs). Area under the curve (AUC) and correlation analysis was performed. Of the three prediction models evaluated, AUC calculations for the Smith et al., Grobman et al. and Troyer and Parisi Models were 0.74, 0.72 and 0.65, respectively. Using the Smith et al. model, 52% of women had a low risk of caesarean section (CS) (predicted VBAC >72%) and 20% had a high risk of CS (predicted VBAC <60%), of whom 20% and 63% had delivery by CS. The fit between observed and predicted outcome in this study cohort using the Smith et al. and Grobman et al. models were greatest (Chi-square test, p=0.228 and 0.904), validating both within the population. The Smith et al. and Grobman et al. models could potentially be utilized within the UK to provide women with an informed choice when deciding on mode of delivery after a previous CS. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Political Campaigns

    OpenAIRE

    Lilleker, Darren

    2017-01-01

    Political campaigns are orchestrated attempts by political organizations to garner public support through persuasive communication in order to influence public policy in their favor. This broad definition encapsulates all forms of campaigns from those of neighborhood organizations seeking to influence local politicians to the campaigns of political parties and candidates who seek election to office in order to shape policy themselves. In pluralist democracies, campaigns are crucial for repres...

  4. Authoritarian parenting predicts reduced electrocortical response to observed adolescent offspring rewards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speed, Brittany C.; Nelson, Brady; Bress, Jennifer N.; Hajcak, Greg

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Parenting styles are robust predictors of offspring outcomes, yet little is known about their neural underpinnings. In this study, 44 parent-adolescent dyads (Mage of adolescent = 12.9) completed a laboratory guessing task while EEG was continuously recorded. In the task, each pair member received feedback about their own monetary wins and losses and also observed the monetary wins and losses of the other member of the pair. We examined the association between self-reported parenting style and parents’ electrophysiological responses to watching their adolescent winning and losing money, dubbed the observational Reward Positivity (RewP) and observational feedback negativity (FN), respectively. Self-reported authoritarian parenting predicted reductions in parents’ observational RewP but not FN. This predictive relationship remained after adjusting for sex of both participants, parents’ responsiveness to their own wins, and parental psychopathology. ‘Exploratory analyses found that permissive parenting was associated with a blunting of the adolescents’ response to their parents’ losses’. These findings suggest that parents’ rapid neural responses to their child’s successes may relate to the harsh parenting behaviors associated with authoritarian parenting. PMID:27613780

  5. Authoritarian parenting predicts reduced electrocortical response to observed adolescent offspring rewards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levinson, Amanda R; Speed, Brittany C; Nelson, Brady; Bress, Jennifer N; Hajcak, Greg

    2017-03-01

    Parenting styles are robust predictors of offspring outcomes, yet little is known about their neural underpinnings. In this study, 44 parent-adolescent dyads (Mage of adolescent = 12.9) completed a laboratory guessing task while EEG was continuously recorded. In the task, each pair member received feedback about their own monetary wins and losses and also observed the monetary wins and losses of the other member of the pair. We examined the association between self-reported parenting style and parents' electrophysiological responses to watching their adolescent winning and losing money, dubbed the observational Reward Positivity (RewP) and observational feedback negativity (FN), respectively. Self-reported authoritarian parenting predicted reductions in parents' observational RewP but not FN. This predictive relationship remained after adjusting for sex of both participants, parents' responsiveness to their own wins, and parental psychopathology. 'Exploratory analyses found that permissive parenting was associated with a blunting of the adolescents' response to their parents' losses'. These findings suggest that parents' rapid neural responses to their child's successes may relate to the harsh parenting behaviors associated with authoritarian parenting. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. Extended state observer based fuzzy model predictive control for ultra-supercritical boiler-turbine unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Fan; Wu, Xiao; Shen, Jiong

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel ESOFMPC is proposed based on the combination of ESO and stable MPC. • The improved ESO can overcome unknown disturbances on any channel of MIMO system. • Nonlinearity and disturbance of boiler-turbine unit can be handled simultaneously. - Abstract: The regulation of ultra-supercritical (USC) boiler-turbine unit in large-scale power plants is vulnerable to various unknown disturbances, meanwhile, the internal nonlinearity makes it a challenging task for wide range load tracking. To overcome these two issues simultaneously, an extended state observer based fuzzy model predictive control is proposed for the USC boiler-turbine unit. Firstly, the fuzzy model of a 1000-MW coal-fired USC boiler-turbine unit is established through the nonlinearity analysis. Then a fuzzy stable model predictive controller is devised on the fuzzy model using output cost function for the purpose of wide range load tracking. An improved linear extended state observer, which can estimate plant behavior variations and unknown disturbances regardless of the direct feedthrough characteristic of the system, is synthesized with the predictive controller to enhance its disturbance rejection property. Closed-loop stability of the overall control system is guaranteed. Simulation results on a 1000-MW USC boiler-turbine unit model demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  7. Prospects for development of unified global flood observation and prediction systems (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    Floods are among the most damaging of natural hazards, with global flood losses in 2011 alone estimated to have exceeded $100B. Historically, flood economic damages have been highest in the developed world (due in part to encroachment on historical flood plains), but loss of life, and human impacts have been greatest in the developing world. However, as the 2011 Thailand floods show, industrializing countries, many of which do not have well developed flood protection systems, are increasingly vulnerable to economic damages as they become more industrialized. At present, unified global flood observation and prediction systems are in their infancy; notwithstanding that global weather forecasting is a mature field. The summary for this session identifies two evolving capabilities that hold promise for development of more sophisticated global flood forecast systems: global hydrologic models and satellite remote sensing (primarily of precipitation, but also of flood inundation). To this I would add the increasing sophistication and accuracy of global precipitation analysis (and forecast) fields from numerical weather prediction models. In this brief overview, I will review progress in all three areas, and especially the evolution of hydrologic data assimilation which integrates modeling and data sources. I will also comment on inter-governmental and inter-agency cooperation, and related issues that have impeded progress in the development and utilization of global flood observation and prediction systems.

  8. Landscape effects on demersal fish revealed by field observations and predictive seabed modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Sophie A M; Sabatino, Alessandro D; Heath, Michael R; Turrell, William R; Bailey, David M

    2017-01-01

    Nature conservation and fisheries management often focus on particular seabed features that are considered vulnerable or important to commercial species. As a result, individual seabed types are protected in isolation, without any understanding of what effect the mixture of seabed types within the landscape has on ecosystem functions. Here we undertook predictive seabed modelling within a coastal marine protected area using observations from underwater stereo-video camera deployments and environmental information (depth, wave fetch, maximum tidal speeds, distance from coast and underlying geology). The effect of the predicted substratum type, extent and heterogeneity or the diversity of substrata, within a radius of 1500 m around each camera deployment of juvenile gadoid relative abundance was analysed. The predicted substratum model performed well with wave fetch and depth being the most influential predictor variables. Gadus morhua (Atlantic cod) were associated with relatively more rugose substrata (Algal-gravel-pebble and seagrass) and heterogeneous landscapes, than Melanogrammus aeglefinus (haddock) or Merlangius merlangus (whiting) (sand and mud). An increase in M. merlangus relative abundance was observed with increasing substratum extent. These results reveal that landscape effects should be considered when protecting the seabed for fish and not just individual seabed types. The landscape approach used in this study therefore has important implications for marine protected area, fisheries management and monitoring advice concerning demersal fish populations.

  9. Observations and predictability of internal solitons in the northern Andaman Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hyder, P. [Fugro GEOS Ltd., Wallingford (United Kingdom); Met Office, National Centre for Ocean Forecasting, Exeter (United Kingdom); Jeans, D.R.G. [Fugro GEOS Ltd., Wallingford (United Kingdom); Cauquil, E. [Total, Paris la Defense Cedex, 92 (France); Nerzic, R. [Actimar, Brest, 29 (France)

    2005-04-15

    Internal solitons are potentially hazardous to sub-sea oil and gas drilling operations. The ability to predict these waves can therefore improve the cost effectiveness and safety of offshore drilling. Theory suggests that solitons are generated when strong tidal currents flow over a bathymetric feature, in a stratified water column. Therefore, with knowledge of the tidal currents, bathymetry and stratification these waves are potentially predictable. Observations were conducted between January and April 1998 at a proposed drilling location in water 440 m deep to the north-east of the Andaman Islands. These observations indicated the occurrence of internal solitons with thermocline depressions of up to 50 m and upper layer currents of up to 1.2 ms{sup -1}. The solitons only occurred on spring tides, when the tidal range exceeded 1.5 m and their probability of occurrence increased with tidal range. Thus, in this location, predictions of tidal range can be used to forecast soliton occurrence. (Author)

  10. Personality, political skill, and job performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blickle, G.; Meurs, J.A.; Zettler, Ingo

    2008-01-01

    constructs of agreeableness and conscientiousness with political skill predict job performance. Our results supported our hypothesis for the agreeableness-political skill interaction. Additionally, after correcting for the unreliability and restricted range of conscientiousness, we found that its interaction...... with political skill also significantly predicted job performance, although not precisely as hypothesized. Implications of the results and directions for future research are provided....

  11. Bridging a gap between continuum-QCD and ab initio predictions of hadron observables

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Binosi, Daniele [European Centre for Theoretical Studies in Nuclear Physics and Related Areas - ECT* and Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Villa Tambosi, Strada delle Tabarelle 286, I-38123 Villazzano (Italy); Chang, Lei [CSSM, School of Chemistry and Physics, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005 (Australia); Papavassiliou, Joannis [Department of Theoretical Physics and IFIC, University of Valencia and CSIC, E-46100, Valencia (Spain); Roberts, Craig D., E-mail: cdroberts@anl.gov [Physics Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL 60439 (United States)

    2015-03-06

    Within contemporary hadron physics there are two common methods for determining the momentum-dependence of the interaction between quarks: the top-down approach, which works toward an ab initio computation of the interaction via direct analysis of the gauge-sector gap equations; and the bottom-up scheme, which aims to infer the interaction by fitting data within a well-defined truncation of those equations in the matter sector that are relevant to bound-state properties. We unite these two approaches by demonstrating that the renormalisation-group-invariant running-interaction predicted by contemporary analyses of QCD's gauge sector coincides with that required in order to describe ground-state hadron observables using a nonperturbative truncation of QCD's Dyson–Schwinger equations in the matter sector. This bridges a gap that had lain between nonperturbative continuum-QCD and the ab initio prediction of bound-state properties.

  12. Observed Parent-Child Relationship Quality Predicts Antibody Response to Vaccination in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Thomas G; Wang, Hongyue; Moynihan, Jan A; Wyman, Peter A.; Carnahan, Jennifer; Lofthus, Gerry; Quataert, Sally A.; Bowman, Melissa; Burke, Anne S.; Caserta, Mary T

    2015-01-01

    Background Quality of the parent-child relationship is a robust predictor of behavioral and emotional health for children and adolescents; the application to physical health is less clear. Methods We investigated the links between observed parent-child relationship quality in an interaction task and antibody response to meningococcal conjugate vaccine in a longitudinal study of 164 ambulatory 10-11 year-old children; additional analyses examine associations with cortisol reactivity, BMI, and somatic illness. Results Observed negative/conflict behavior in the interaction task predicted a less robust antibody response to meningococcal serotype C vaccine in the child over a 6 month-period, after controlling for socio-economic and other covariates. Observer rated interaction conflict also predicted increased cortisol reactivity following the interaction task and higher BMI, but these factors did not account for the link between relationship quality and antibody response. Conclusions The results begin to document the degree to which a major source of child stress exposure, parent-child relationship conflict, is associated with altered immune system development in children, and may constitute an important public health consideration. PMID:25862953

  13. Predicted Attenuation Relation and Observed Ground Motion of Gorkha Nepal Earthquake of 25 April 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, R. P.; Ahmad, R.

    2015-12-01

    A comparison of recent observed ground motion parameters of recent Gorkha Nepal earthquake of 25 April 2015 (Mw 7.8) with the predicted ground motion parameters using exitsing attenuation relation of the Himalayan region will be presented. The recent earthquake took about 8000 lives and destroyed thousands of poor quality of buildings and the earthquake was felt by millions of people living in Nepal, China, India, Bangladesh, and Bhutan. The knowledge of ground parameters are very important in developing seismic code of seismic prone regions like Himalaya for better design of buildings. The ground parameters recorded in recent earthquake event and aftershocks are compared with attenuation relations for the Himalayan region, the predicted ground motion parameters show good correlation with the observed ground parameters. The results will be of great use to Civil engineers in updating existing building codes in the Himlayan and surrounding regions and also for the evaluation of seismic hazards. The results clearly show that the attenuation relation developed for the Himalayan region should be only used, other attenuation relations based on other regions fail to provide good estimate of observed ground motion parameters.

  14. Observing others stay or switch - How social prediction errors are integrated into reward reversal learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ihssen, Niklas; Mussweiler, Thomas; Linden, David E J

    2016-08-01

    Reward properties of stimuli can undergo sudden changes, and the detection of these 'reversals' is often made difficult by the probabilistic nature of rewards/punishments. Here we tested whether and how humans use social information (someone else's choices) to overcome uncertainty during reversal learning. We show a substantial social influence during reversal learning, which was modulated by the type of observed behavior. Participants frequently followed observed conservative choices (no switches after punishment) made by the (fictitious) other player but ignored impulsive choices (switches), even though the experiment was set up so that both types of response behavior would be similarly beneficial/detrimental (Study 1). Computational modeling showed that participants integrated the observed choices as a 'social prediction error' instead of ignoring or blindly following the other player. Modeling also confirmed higher learning rates for 'conservative' versus 'impulsive' social prediction errors. Importantly, this 'conservative bias' was boosted by interpersonal similarity, which in conjunction with the lack of effects observed in a non-social control experiment (Study 2) confirmed its social nature. A third study suggested that relative weighting of observed impulsive responses increased with increased volatility (frequency of reversals). Finally, simulations showed that in the present paradigm integrating social and reward information was not necessarily more adaptive to maximize earnings than learning from reward alone. Moreover, integrating social information increased accuracy only when conservative and impulsive choices were weighted similarly during learning. These findings suggest that to guide decisions in choice contexts that involve reward reversals humans utilize social cues conforming with their preconceptions more strongly than cues conflicting with them, especially when the other is similar. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B

  15. Impact of rotavirus vaccination on hospitalisations in Belgium: comparing model predictions with observed data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baudouin Standaert

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Published economic assessments of rotavirus vaccination typically use modelling, mainly static Markov cohort models with birth cohorts followed up to the age of 5 years. Rotavirus vaccination has now been available for several years in some countries, and data have been collected to evaluate the real-world impact of vaccination on rotavirus hospitalisations. This study compared the economic impact of vaccination between model estimates and observed data on disease-specific hospitalisation reductions in a country for which both modelled and observed datasets exist (Belgium. METHODS: A previously published Markov cohort model estimated the impact of rotavirus vaccination on the number of rotavirus hospitalisations in children aged <5 years in Belgium using vaccine efficacy data from clinical development trials. Data on the number of rotavirus-positive gastroenteritis hospitalisations in children aged <5 years between 1 June 2004 and 31 May 2006 (pre-vaccination study period or 1 June 2007 to 31 May 2010 (post-vaccination study period were analysed from nine hospitals in Belgium and compared with the modelled estimates. RESULTS: The model predicted a smaller decrease in hospitalisations over time, mainly explained by two factors. First, the observed data indicated indirect vaccine protection in children too old or too young for vaccination. This herd effect is difficult to capture in static Markov cohort models and therefore was not included in the model. Second, the model included a 'waning' effect, i.e. reduced vaccine effectiveness over time. The observed data suggested this waning effect did not occur during that period, and so the model systematically underestimated vaccine effectiveness during the first 4 years after vaccine implementation. CONCLUSIONS: Model predictions underestimated the direct medical economic value of rotavirus vaccination during the first 4 years of vaccination by approximately 10% when assessing

  16. Political psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Susanna; Johnson, Kate M; Beall, Erica; Meindl, Peter; Smith, Benjamin; Graham, Jesse

    2014-07-01

    Political psychology is a dynamic field of research that offers a unique blend of approaches and methods in the social and cognitive sciences. Political psychologists explore the interactions between macrolevel political structures and microlevel factors such as decision-making processes, motivations, and perceptions. In this article, we provide a broad overview of the field, beginning with a brief history of political psychology research and a summary of the primary methodological approaches in the field. We then give a more detailed account of research on ideology and social justice, two topics experiencing a resurgence of interest in current political psychology. Finally, we cover research on political persuasion and voting behavior. By summarizing these major areas of political psychology research, we hope to highlight the wide variety of theoretical and methodological approaches of cognitive scientists working at the intersection of psychology and political science. WIREs Cogn Sci 2014, 5:373-385. doi: 10.1002/wcs.1293 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Evaluation of a numerical model's ability to predict bed load transport observed in braided river experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javernick, Luke; Redolfi, Marco; Bertoldi, Walter

    2018-05-01

    New data collection techniques offer numerical modelers the ability to gather and utilize high quality data sets with high spatial and temporal resolution. Such data sets are currently needed for calibration, verification, and to fuel future model development, particularly morphological simulations. This study explores the use of high quality spatial and temporal data sets of observed bed load transport in braided river flume experiments to evaluate the ability of a two-dimensional model, Delft3D, to predict bed load transport. This study uses a fixed bed model configuration and examines the model's shear stress calculations, which are the foundation to predict the sediment fluxes necessary for morphological simulations. The evaluation is conducted for three flow rates, and model setup used highly accurate Structure-from-Motion (SfM) topography and discharge boundary conditions. The model was hydraulically calibrated using bed roughness, and performance was evaluated based on depth and inundation agreement. Model bed load performance was evaluated in terms of critical shear stress exceedance area compared to maps of observed bed mobility in a flume. Following the standard hydraulic calibration, bed load performance was tested for sensitivity to horizontal eddy viscosity parameterization and bed morphology updating. Simulations produced depth errors equal to the SfM inherent errors, inundation agreement of 77-85%, and critical shear stress exceedance in agreement with 49-68% of the observed active area. This study provides insight into the ability of physically based, two-dimensional simulations to accurately predict bed load as well as the effects of horizontal eddy viscosity and bed updating. Further, this study highlights how using high spatial and temporal data to capture the physical processes at work during flume experiments can help to improve morphological modeling.

  18. Comparison of predicted with observed biokinetics of inhaled plutonium nitrate and gadolinium oxide in humans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hodgson, A.; Shutt, A.L.; Etherington, G.; Hodgson, S.A.; Rance, E.; Stradling, G.N.; Youngman, M.J.; Ziesenis, A.; Kreyling, W.G.

    2003-01-01

    The absorption kinetics to blood of plutonium and gadolinium after inhalation as nitrate and oxide in humans and animals has been studied. For each material, values describing the time dependence of absorption were derived from the studies in animals and used with the ICRP human respiratory tract model to predict lung retention and cumulative amounts to blood for the volunteers inhaling the same materials. Comparison with the observed behaviour in the volunteers suggests that absorption of plutonium and gadolinium is reasonably species independent, and that data obtained from animal studies can be used to assess their biokinetic behaviour in humans. (author)

  19. 'Grounded' Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Garbi

    2012-01-01

    play within one particular neighbourhood: Nørrebro in the Danish capital, Copenhagen. The article introduces the concept of grounded politics to analyse how groups of Muslim immigrants in Nørrebro use the space, relationships and history of the neighbourhood for identity political statements....... The article further describes how national political debates over the Muslim presence in Denmark affect identity political manifestations within Nørrebro. By using Duncan Bell’s concept of mythscape (Bell, 2003), the article shows how some political actors idealize Nørrebro’s past to contest the present...... ethnic and religious diversity of the neighbourhood and, further, to frame what they see as the deterioration of genuine Danish identity....

  20. Predictions and observations of global beta-induced Alfven-acoustic modes in JET and NSTX

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gorelenkov, N N [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08543 (United States); Berk, H L [Institute for Fusion Studies, University of Texas, Austin, TX 78712 (United States); Crocker, N A [Institute of Plasma and Fusion Research, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1354 (United States); Fredrickson, E D [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08543 (United States); Kaye, S [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08543 (United States); Kubota, S [Institute of Plasma and Fusion Research, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1354 (United States); Park, H [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08543 (United States); Peebles, W [Institute of Plasma and Fusion Research, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1354 (United States); Sabbagh, S A [Department of Applied Physics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027-6902 (United States); Sharapov, S E [Euroatom/UKAEA Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxfordshire OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Stutmat, D [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Tritz, K [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Levinton, F M [Nova Photonics, One Oak Place, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States); Yuh, H [Nova Photonics, One Oak Place, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States)

    2007-12-15

    In this paper we report on observations and interpretations of a new class of global MHD eigenmode solutions arising in gaps in the low frequency Alfven-acoustic continuum below the geodesic acoustic mode frequency. These modes have been just reported (Gorelenkov et al 2007 Phys. Lett. 370 70-7) where preliminary comparisons indicate qualitative agreement between theory and experiment. Here we show a more quantitative comparison emphasizing recent NSTX experiments on the observations of the global eigenmodes, referred to as beta-induced Alfven-acoustic eigenmodes (BAAEs), which exist near the extrema of the Alfven-acoustic continuum. In accordance to the linear dispersion relations, the frequency of these modes may shift as the safety factor, q, profile relaxes. We show that BAAEs can be responsible for observations in JET plasmas at relatively low beta <2% as well as in NSTX plasmas at relatively high beta >20%. In NSTX plasma observed magnetic activity has the same properties as predicted by theory for the mode structure and the frequency. Found numerically in NOVA simulations BAAEs are used to explain the observed properties of relatively low frequency experimental signals seen in NSTX and JET tokamaks.

  1. The importance of values in predicting Turkish youth's opinions about the European Union in light of the Copenhagen Political Criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuşdil, M Ersin; Simşek, Sefa

    2008-12-01

    The enlargement process of the European Union may be regarded as one of the most important social projects of human history in that it is trying to unite several nation-states under a "European identity." As a historically and culturally "distant" candidate, Turkey has been asked to meet a set of expectations referred to as the "Copenhagen Criteria," requiring a series of large-scale reforms to the infrastructure and superstructure of the country. Taking advantage of the unique opportunity to relate Turkish people's opinions on the criteria to their values, hypotheses based on Schwartz's model of values were tested. Schwartz's Personal Values Questionnaire and a questionnaire measuring opinions on the criteria and the Union were completed by 368 Turkish university students. Factor analysis of the opinion items yielded five factors: reduction of military influence in civil life, scepticism towards Europe and the European Union, improvement of human rights and liberties, improvement of minority rights, and lack of transparency in public institutions. Regression analyses showed that values and nationalism were powerful predictors of opinions whereas the effect of religiosity was limited only to the prediction of a preference for the reduction of military influence in civil life. Preference for openness to change values were successful in predicting variance in three of the five criteria: The more the participants favoured these values, the more they supported the improvement of human rights and liberties, the improvement of minority rights, and regretted the lack of transparency. Self-transcendence values were also positively related to support for the same three criteria together with a preference for reduction of military influence. As for nationalism, the results showed that this variable was related negatively to reduction of the military influence, improvement of human rights and liberties, improvement of minority rights; and positively to scepticism.

  2. Russian State Time and Earth Rotation Service: Observations, Eop Series, Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, M.; Pasynok, S.

    2010-01-01

    Russian State Time, Frequency and Earth Rotation Service provides the official EOP data and time for use in scientific, technical and metrological works in Russia. The observations of GLONASS and GPS on 30 stations in Russia, and also the Russian and worldwide observations data of VLBI (35 stations) and SLR (20 stations) are used now. To these three series of EOP the data calculated in two other Russian analysis centers are added: IAA (VLBI, GPS and SLR series) and MCC (SLR). Joint processing of these 7 series is carried out every day (the operational EOP data for the last day and the predicted values for 50 days). The EOP values are weekly refined and systematic errors of every individual series are corrected. The combined results become accessible on the VNIIFTRI server (ftp.imvp.ru) approximately at 6h UT daily.

  3. Comparison of profess predictions of D-COM blind problem with the experimental observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sah, D.N.; Venkatesh, D.; Ram Adasan, E.

    1984-01-01

    As a part of an IAEA co-ordinated research program D-COM, a code exercise was organised in May 1983, to investigate the predictive capability of fuel performance codes with respect to transient fission gas release. In this exercise the computer code PROFESS was used to calculate the irradiation performance of fuel pins of the D-COM Blind problem circulated to the participants in the exercise. Calculations of fuel centre temperature, fuel-clad gap conductance, fission gas release during steady state and transient, and fuel restructurings for all the fuel pins were made by PROFESS. Comparison of predictions with experimental findings showed good agreement for several performance parameters. The comparison also revealed some areas where improvement was desired in the modelling of fuel behaviour. A recalculation was carried out for all fuel pins after incorporating modifications and adding additional models in the code. This allowed better agreement between the predicted and observed values of fission gas release in the fuel pins. This paper presents the results of blind calculation, recalculation and sensitivity analysis carried out by PROFESS on the D-COM Blind Problem. The paper also gives a brief description of the models of fission gas release and fuel restructuring used in the calculation. (author)

  4. Predicting Near-Term Water Quality from Satellite Observations of Watershed Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, W. J.; Wang, L.; Hoffman, K.; West, D.; Mehta, A. V.; Lee, C.

    2017-12-01

    Despite the strong influence of watershed conditions on source water quality, most water utilities and water resource agencies do not currently have the capability to monitor watershed sources of contamination with great temporal or spatial detail. Typically, knowledge of source water quality is limited to periodic grab sampling; automated monitoring of a limited number of parameters at a few select locations; and/or monitoring relevant constituents at a treatment plant intake. While important, such observations are not sufficient to inform proactive watershed or source water management at a monthly or seasonal scale. Satellite remote sensing data on the other hand can provide a snapshot of an entire watershed at regular, sub-monthly intervals, helping analysts characterize watershed conditions and identify trends that could signal changes in source water quality. Accordingly, the authors are investigating correlations between satellite remote sensing observations of watersheds and source water quality, at a variety of spatial and temporal scales and lags. While correlations between remote sensing observations and direct in situ measurements of water quality have been well described in the literature, there are few studies that link remote sensing observations across a watershed with near-term predictions of water quality. In this presentation, the authors will describe results of statistical analyses and discuss how these results are being used to inform development of a desktop decision support tool to support predictive application of remote sensing data. Predictor variables under evaluation include parameters that describe vegetative conditions; parameters that describe climate/weather conditions; and non-remote sensing, in situ measurements. Water quality parameters under investigation include nitrogen, phosphorus, organic carbon, chlorophyll-a, and turbidity.

  5. Polity age and political budget cycles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aaskoven, Lasse

    2018-01-01

    Incumbent incentive for competence-signaling and lack of voter information are generally thought to be factors that increase the prevalence of political budget cycles. These mechanisms should be more prevalent in new political units. Since the creation of new political units is rarely exogenous......-experimental to study whether political budget cycles are larger in new political units. Contrary to theoretical predictions, political budget cycles seem to be of a smaller scale in the new municipalities, but only regarding budget cycles in budgetary overruns. The findings are of wider interest for discussions about...... the mechanisms behind context-conditional political budget cycles....

  6. Political News and Political Consciousness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schertges, Claudia

    2007-01-01

    This article deals with mass media in modern democratic societies, using the example of Israeli news reports in German television (TV) news. Central to this interest are processes of mediating politics: political socialisation and education; that is to say, empowering citizens via TV news to participate in democratic processes. The article…

  7. A vision for an ultra-high resolution integrated water cycle observation and prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houser, P. R.

    2013-05-01

    Society's welfare, progress, and sustainable economic growth—and life itself—depend on the abundance and vigorous cycling and replenishing of water throughout the global environment. The water cycle operates on a continuum of time and space scales and exchanges large amounts of energy as water undergoes phase changes and is moved from one part of the Earth system to another. We must move toward an integrated observation and prediction paradigm that addresses broad local-to-global science and application issues by realizing synergies associated with multiple, coordinated observations and prediction systems. A central challenge of a future water and energy cycle observation strategy is to progress from single variable water-cycle instruments to multivariable integrated instruments in electromagnetic-band families. The microwave range in the electromagnetic spectrum is ideally suited for sensing the state and abundance of water because of water's dielectric properties. Eventually, a dedicated high-resolution water-cycle microwave-based satellite mission may be possible based on large-aperture antenna technology that can harvest the synergy that would be afforded by simultaneous multichannel active and passive microwave measurements. A partial demonstration of these ideas can even be realized with existing microwave satellite observations to support advanced multivariate retrieval methods that can exploit the totality of the microwave spectral information. The simultaneous multichannel active and passive microwave retrieval would allow improved-accuracy retrievals that are not possible with isolated measurements. Furthermore, the simultaneous monitoring of several of the land, atmospheric, oceanic, and cryospheric states brings synergies that will substantially enhance understanding of the global water and energy cycle as a system. The multichannel approach also affords advantages to some constituent retrievals—for instance, simultaneous retrieval of vegetation

  8. Evaluation of Predicted and Observed Data on Biotransformation of Twenty-Nine Trace Organic Chemicals

    KAUST Repository

    Bertolini, Maria

    2011-07-01

    Trace organic chemicals present in household products, pesticides, pharmaceuticals and personal care products may have adverse ecotoxicological effects once they are released to the environment. These chemicals are usually transported with the sewage to wastewater treatment facilities, where they might be attenuated depending on the degree of treatment applied prior to discharge to receiving streams. This study evaluates the removal performance of 29 trace organic compounds during two different activated sludge treatment systems. Predominant attenuation processes such as biotransformation and sorption for the target compounds were identified. Biotransformation rate constants determined in this study were used to assess removal of compounds from other treatment plants with similar operational conditions, using data gathered from the literature. The commercial software Catalogic was applied to predict environmental fate of chemicals. The software program consisted of four models able to simulate molecular transformations and to generate degradation trees. In order to assess the accuracy of this program in predicting biotransformation, one biodegradation model is used to contrast predicted degradation pathway with metabolic pathways reported in the literature. The predicted outcome was correct for more than 40 percent of the 29 targeted substances, while 38 percent of the chemicals exhibited some degree of lower agreement between predicted and observed pathways. Percent removal data determined for the two treatment facilities was compared with transformation probability output from Catalogic. About 80 percent of the 29 compounds exhibited a good correlation between probability of transformation of the parent compound and percent removal data from the two treatment plants (R2 = 0.82 and 0.9). Based upon findings for 29 trace organic chemicals regarding removal during activated sludge treatment, attacked fragments present in their structures, predicted data from

  9. Ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) and Superstorm Sandy (2012): Coupled model predictions and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuyi S.; Curcic, Milan

    2016-07-01

    Forecasting hurricane impacts of extreme winds and flooding requires accurate prediction of hurricane structure and storm-induced ocean surface waves days in advance. The waves are complex, especially near landfall when the hurricane winds and water depth varies significantly and the surface waves refract, shoal and dissipate. In this study, we examine the spatial structure, magnitude, and directional spectrum of hurricane-induced ocean waves using a high resolution, fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model and observations. The coupled model predictions of ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) over the Gulf of Mexico and Superstorm Sandy (2012) in the northeastern Atlantic and coastal region are evaluated with the NDBC buoy and satellite altimeter observations. Although there are characteristics that are general to ocean waves in both hurricanes as documented in previous studies, wave fields in Ike and Sandy possess unique properties due mostly to the distinct wind fields and coastal bathymetry in the two storms. Several processes are found to significantly modulate hurricane surface waves near landfall. First, the phase speed and group velocities decrease as the waves become shorter and steeper in shallow water, effectively increasing surface roughness and wind stress. Second, the bottom-induced refraction acts to turn the waves toward the coast, increasing the misalignment between the wind and waves. Third, as the hurricane translates over land, the left side of the storm center is characterized by offshore winds over very short fetch, which opposes incoming swell. Landfalling hurricanes produce broader wave spectra overall than that of the open ocean. The front-left quadrant is most complex, where the combination of windsea, swell propagating against the wind, increasing wind-wave stress, and interaction with the coastal topography requires a fully coupled model to meet these challenges in hurricane wave and surge prediction.

  10. An elevated respiratory quotient predicts complications after cardiac surgery under extracorporeal circulation: an observational pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piot, J; Hébrard, A; Durand, M; Payen, J F; Albaladejo, P

    2018-04-17

    Following cardiac surgery, hyperlactatemia due to anaerobic metabolism is associated with an increase in both morbidity and mortality. We previously found that an elevated respiratory quotient (RQ) predicts anaerobic metabolism. In the present study we aimed to demonstrate that it is also associated with poor outcome following cardiac surgery. This single institution, prospective, observational study includes all those patients that were consecutively admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) after cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass, that had also been monitored using pulmonary artery catheter. Data were recorded at admission (H0) and after one hour (H1) including: oxygen consumption ([Formula: see text]), carbon dioxide production ([Formula: see text]), RQ ([Formula: see text]), lactate levels and mixed venous oxygen saturation ([Formula: see text]). The primary endpoint was defined as mortality at 30 days. Comparison of the area under the curve (AUC) for receiver operating characteristic curves was used to analyze the prognostic predictive value of RQ, lactate levels and [Formula: see text], in terms of patient outcome. We studied 151 patients admitted to the ICU between May 2015 and February 2016. Seventy eight patients experienced a worse than expected outcome in the post-operative period, and among those seven died. RQ at H1 in non-survivors ([Formula: see text]) was higher than in survivors ([Formula: see text]; p = 0.02). The AUC for RQ to predict mortality was 0.77 (IC 95% [0.70-0.84]), with a threshold value of 0.76 (sensitivity 64%, specificity 100%). By comparison, the AUC for lactate levels was significantly superior (AUClact 0.89, IC 95% [0.83-0.93], p = 0.02). In this study, elevated RQ appeared to be predictive of mortality after cardiac surgery with CPB.

  11. Initializing carbon cycle predictions from the Community Land Model by assimilating global biomass observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, A. M.; Hoar, T. J.; Smith, W. K.; Moore, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    The locations and longevity of terrestrial carbon sinks remain uncertain, however it is clear that in order to predict long-term climate changes the role of the biosphere in surface energy and carbon balance must be understood and incorporated into earth system models (ESMs). Aboveground biomass, the amount of carbon stored in vegetation, is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, representing the balance of uptake through gross primary productivity (GPP), losses from respiration, senescence and mortality over hundreds of years. The best predictions of current and future land-atmosphere fluxes are likely from the integration of process-based knowledge contained in models and information from observations of changes in carbon stocks using data assimilation (DA). By exploiting long times series, it is possible to accurately detect variability and change in carbon cycle dynamics through monitoring ecosystem states, for example biomass derived from vegetation optical depth (VOD), and use this information to initialize models before making predictions. To make maximum use of information about the current state of global ecosystems when using models we have developed a system that combines the Community Land Model (CLM) with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), a community tool for ensemble DA. This DA system is highly innovative in its complexity, completeness and capabilities. Here we described a series of activities, using both Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) and real observations, that have allowed us to quantify the potential impact of assimilating VOD data into CLM-DART on future land-atmosphere fluxes. VOD data are particularly suitable to use in this activity due to their long temporal coverage and appropriate scale when combined with CLM, but their absolute values rely on many assumptions. Therefore, we have had to assess the implications of the VOD retrieval algorithms, with an emphasis on detecting uncertainty due to

  12. Collaborative Research. Separating Forced and Unforced Decadal Predictability in Models and Observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DelSole, Timothy [George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA (United States)

    2015-08-31

    The purpose of the proposed research was to identify unforced predictable components on decadal time scales, distinguish these components from forced predictable components, and to assess the reliability of model predictions of these components. The question of whether anthropogenic forcing changes decadal predictability, or gives rise to new forms of decadal predictability, also will be

  13. Spiritual Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric Rambeau

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available According to Foucault, the uprising of the Iranian people in the seventies reveals how much the political force of Islam is due precisely to the fact that it is not principally located in the field of politics, but in that of ethics. Religion (Shiite Islam appears as the guarantee of real change in the very mode of existence. This spiritual politics is marginalized by Marxism, where it is understood as a discontinuity in relation to proper politics, given that the latter is necessarily linked to a strategic rationalization. By indicating, at this juncture of what is intolerable, the living source and the critical impulse of the Foucauldian ethics, this spiritual politics also leads to recognize in the concept of “subjectivation” a dimension that might escape the circle of freedom as determined by a total immanence to power. This conceptual possibility is highly present in the aporias of the Foucauldian concept of the “relation to oneself”, both as a first condition of governmentality and the ultimate point of resistance against any governmentality. It thus reveals the difficulties in relating political to ethical subjectivation.

  14. Symptom clusters predict mortality among dialysis patients in Norway: a prospective observational cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amro, Amin; Waldum, Bård; von der Lippe, Nanna; Brekke, Fredrik Barth; Dammen, Toril; Miaskowski, Christine; Os, Ingrid

    2015-01-01

    Patients with end-stage renal disease on dialysis have reduced survival rates compared with the general population. Symptoms are frequent in dialysis patients, and a symptom cluster is defined as two or more related co-occurring symptoms. The aim of this study was to explore the associations between symptom clusters and mortality in dialysis patients. In a prospective observational cohort study of dialysis patients (n = 301), Kidney Disease and Quality of Life Short Form and Beck Depression Inventory questionnaires were administered. To generate symptom clusters, principal component analysis with varimax rotation was used on 11 kidney-specific self-reported physical symptoms. A Beck Depression Inventory score of 16 or greater was defined as clinically significant depressive symptoms. Physical and mental component summary scores were generated from Short Form-36. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used for the survival analysis, Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank statistics were applied to compare survival rates between the groups. Three different symptom clusters were identified; one included loading of several uremic symptoms. In multivariate analyses and after adjustment for health-related quality of life and depressive symptoms, the worst perceived quartile of the "uremic" symptom cluster independently predicted all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 2.47, 95% CI 1.44-4.22, P = 0.001) compared with the other quartiles during a follow-up period that ranged from four to 52 months. The two other symptom clusters ("neuromuscular" and "skin") or the individual symptoms did not predict mortality. Clustering of uremic symptoms predicted mortality. Assessing co-occurring symptoms rather than single symptoms may help to identify dialysis patients at high risk for mortality. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Observations and Predictability of Gap Winds in the Salmon River Canyon of Central Idaho, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie S. Wagenbrenner

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This work investigates gap winds in a steep, deep river canyon prone to wildland fire. The driving mechanisms and the potential for forecasting the gap winds are investigated. The onset and strength of the gap winds are found to be correlated to the formation of an along-gap pressure gradient linked to periodic development of a thermal trough in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Numerical simulations are performed using a reanalysis dataset to investigate the ability of numerical weather prediction (NWP to simulate the observed gap wind events, including the timing and flow characteristics within the canyon. The effects of model horizontal grid spacing and terrain representation are considered. The reanalysis simulations suggest that horizontal grid spacings used in operational NWP could be sufficient for simulating the gap flow events given the regional-scale depression in which the Salmon River Canyon is situated. The strength of the events, however, is under-predicted due, at least in part, to terrain smoothing in the model. Routine NWP, however, is found to have mixed results in terms of forecasting the gap wind events, primarily due to problems in simulating the regional sea level pressure system correctly.

  16. Disturbance observer based model predictive control for accurate atmospheric entry of spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chao; Yang, Jun; Li, Shihua; Li, Qi; Guo, Lei

    2018-05-01

    Facing the complex aerodynamic environment of Mars atmosphere, a composite atmospheric entry trajectory tracking strategy is investigated in this paper. External disturbances, initial states uncertainties and aerodynamic parameters uncertainties are the main problems. The composite strategy is designed to solve these problems and improve the accuracy of Mars atmospheric entry. This strategy includes a model predictive control for optimized trajectory tracking performance, as well as a disturbance observer based feedforward compensation for external disturbances and uncertainties attenuation. 500-run Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed composite control scheme achieves more precise Mars atmospheric entry (3.8 km parachute deployment point distribution error) than the baseline control scheme (8.4 km) and integral control scheme (5.8 km).

  17. Real time simulation of nonlinear generalized predictive control for wind energy conversion system with nonlinear observer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouari, Kamel; Rekioua, Toufik; Ouhrouche, Mohand

    2014-01-01

    In order to make a wind power generation truly cost-effective and reliable, an advanced control techniques must be used. In this paper, we develop a new control strategy, using nonlinear generalized predictive control (NGPC) approach, for DFIG-based wind turbine. The proposed control law is based on two points: NGPC-based torque-current control loop generating the rotor reference voltage and NGPC-based speed control loop that provides the torque reference. In order to enhance the robustness of the controller, a disturbance observer is designed to estimate the aerodynamic torque which is considered as an unknown perturbation. Finally, a real-time simulation is carried out to illustrate the performance of the proposed controller. Copyright © 2013 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Predicting Near Real-Time Inundation Occurrence from Complimentary Satellite Microwave Brightness Temperature Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, C. K.; Pan, M.; Wood, E. F.

    2017-12-01

    Throughout the world, there is an increasing need for new methods and data that can aid decision makers, emergency responders and scientists in the monitoring of flood events as they happen. In many regions, it is possible to examine the extent of historical and real-time inundation occurrence from visible and infrared imagery provided by sensors such as MODIS or the Landsat TM; however, this is not possible in regions that are densely vegetated or are under persistent cloud cover. In addition, there is often a temporal mismatch between the sampling of a particular sensor and a given flood event, leading to limited observations in near real-time. As a result, there is a need for alternative methods that take full advantage of complimentary remotely sensed data sources, such as available microwave brightness temperature observations (e.g., SMAP, SMOS, AMSR2, AMSR-E, and GMI), to aid in the estimation of global flooding. The objective of this work was to develop a high-resolution mapping of inundated areas derived from multiple satellite microwave sensor observations with a daily temporal resolution. This system consists of first retrieving water fractions from complimentary microwave sensors (AMSR-2 and SMAP) which may spatially and temporally overlap in the region of interest. Using additional information in a Random Forest classifier, including high resolution topography and multiple datasets of inundated area (both historical and empirical), the resulting retrievals are spatially downscaled to derive estimates of the extent of inundation at a scale relevant to management and flood response activities ( 90m or better) instead of the relatively coarse resolution water fractions, which are limited by the microwave sensor footprints ( 5-50km). Here we present the training and validation of this method for the 2015 floods that occurred in Houston, Texas. Comparing the predicted inundation against historical occurrence maps derived from the Landsat TM record and MODIS

  19. Parenting and Politics: Exploring Early Moral Bases of Political Orientation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronnie Janoff-Bulman

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Based on Lakoff’s (2002 Strict Father and Nurturant Parent metaphors for political conservatism and liberalism respectively, two studies explored parenting styles, political ideology, and the moral orientations that might link the two. Restrictive parenting (by both mother and father predicted political conservatism, and this path was mediated by a strong Social Order orientation (Study 1 reflecting, more broadly, an inhibition-based proscriptive morality (Study 2. Political liberalism was associated with a Social Justice orientation, but was not predicted by nurturant parenting in either study. Study 1 included mothers’ reports of their own parenting, and these were correlated with the students’ responses. Findings support a restrictive moral underpinning for conservatism, but raise questions about the assumed unique association between parental nurturance and political liberalism, which is addressed in the discussion.

  20. The Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task (SPORT): A Multinational Science Mission using a CubeSat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spann, J. F.; Habash Krause, L.; Swenson, C.; Heelis, R. A.; Bishop, R. L.; Le, G.; Abdu, M. A.; Durão, O.; Loures, L.; De Nardin, C. M.; Shibuya, L.; Casas, J.; Nash-STevenson, S.; Muralikrishana, P.; Costa, J. E. R.; Wrasse, C. M.; Fry, C. D.

    2017-12-01

    The Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task (SPORT) is a 6U CubeSat pathfinder mission to address the very compelling but difficult problem of understanding the preconditions leading to equatorial plasma bubbles. The scientific literature describes the preconditions in both the plasma drifts and the density profiles related to bubble formations that occur several hours later in the evening. Most of the scientific discovery has resulted from observations at the Jicamarca Radio Observatory from Peru, a single site, within a single longitude sector. SPORT will provide a systematic study of the state of the pre-bubble conditions at all longitudes sectors to allow us to understand the differences between geography and magnetic geometry. This talk will present an overview of the mission and the anticipated data products. Products include global maps of scintillation occurrence as a function of local time, and magnetic conjugacy occurrence observations. SPORT is a multinational partnership between NASA, the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE), and the Technical Aeronautics Institute under the Brazilian Air Force Command Department (DCTA/ITA). It has been encouraged by U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) to foster increased cooperation and ties between academics, civilian space programs and the militaries. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center is coordinating this investigation by overseeing the launch to orbit and the flight instruments, which are being built by the Aerospace Corporation, University of Texas Dallas, Utah State University, and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The Brazilian partners are contributing the spacecraft, observatory integration and test, ground observation networks, and mission operations and data management. The science data will be distributed from and archived at the INPE/EMBRACE regional space-weather forecasting center in Brazil, and mirrored at the NASA GSFC Space Physics Data Facility (SPDF).

  1. Political symbols and political transitions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herrero de Miñón, Miguel

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Politics, Law and Psychology are fields that come together in the symbolic. This text takes evidence from those three areas to develop an analysis of political symbols and political transitions. The development of the analysis goes through three stages. The first succinctly describes the concept of transition and its meaning. The second closely examines the notion of the symbol, in terms of its definition, to explain aspects that allow us to understand it, characterise it and make its functions clear. Finally, from the author's experience as a witness and as an actor, I suggest three ways of understanding symbols in the processes of political transition: as symbols of change, as symbols of acknowledgment, and as symbols of support.

  2. Political Culture versus Socioeconomic Approaches to Predicting Police Strength in U.S. Police Agencies: Results of a Longitudinal Study, 1993 to 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jihong; Ren, Ling; Lovrich, Nicholas P.

    2012-01-01

    A variety of theories have emerged that offer plausible explanations, one from the political institutional perspective and others from sociological perspective. There has been renewed interest in the effect of local political structure on police strength in the policing literature. The purpose of this study, therefore, is to assess the two main…

  3. Prediction and near-field observation of skull-guided acoustic waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, Héctor; Rebling, Johannes; Razansky, Daniel

    2017-06-21

    Ultrasound waves propagating in water or soft biological tissue are strongly reflected when encountering the skull, which limits the use of ultrasound-based techniques in transcranial imaging and therapeutic applications. Current knowledge on the acoustic properties of the cranial bone is restricted to far-field observations, leaving its near-field unexplored. We report on the existence of skull-guided acoustic waves, which was herein confirmed by near-field measurements of optoacoustically-induced responses in ex-vivo murine skulls immersed in water. Dispersion of the guided waves was found to reasonably agree with the prediction of a multilayered flat plate model. We observed a skull-guided wave propagation over a lateral distance of at least 3 mm, with a half-decay length in the direction perpendicular to the skull ranging from 35 to 300 μm at 6 and 0.5 MHz, respectively. Propagation losses are mostly attributed to the heterogenous acoustic properties of the skull. It is generally anticipated that our findings may facilitate and broaden the application of ultrasound-mediated techniques in brain diagnostics and therapy.

  4. Seasonal sea ice predictions for the Arctic based on assimilation of remotely sensed observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauker, F.; Kaminski, T.; Ricker, R.; Toudal-Pedersen, L.; Dybkjaer, G.; Melsheimer, C.; Eastwood, S.; Sumata, H.; Karcher, M.; Gerdes, R.

    2015-10-01

    The recent thinning and shrinking of the Arctic sea ice cover has increased the interest in seasonal sea ice forecasts. Typical tools for such forecasts are numerical models of the coupled ocean sea ice system such as the North Atlantic/Arctic Ocean Sea Ice Model (NAOSIM). The model uses as input the initial state of the system and the atmospheric boundary condition over the forecasting period. This study investigates the potential of remotely sensed ice thickness observations in constraining the initial model state. For this purpose it employs a variational assimilation system around NAOSIM and the Alfred Wegener Institute's CryoSat-2 ice thickness product in conjunction with the University of Bremen's snow depth product and the OSI SAF ice concentration and sea surface temperature products. We investigate the skill of predictions of the summer ice conditions starting in March for three different years. Straightforward assimilation of the above combination of data streams results in slight improvements over some regions (especially in the Beaufort Sea) but degrades the over-all fit to independent observations. A considerable enhancement of forecast skill is demonstrated for a bias correction scheme for the CryoSat-2 ice thickness product that uses a spatially varying scaling factor.

  5. Prediction and near-field observation of skull-guided acoustic waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, Héctor; Rebling, Johannes; Razansky, Daniel

    2017-06-01

    Ultrasound waves propagating in water or soft biological tissue are strongly reflected when encountering the skull, which limits the use of ultrasound-based techniques in transcranial imaging and therapeutic applications. Current knowledge on the acoustic properties of the cranial bone is restricted to far-field observations, leaving its near-field unexplored. We report on the existence of skull-guided acoustic waves, which was herein confirmed by near-field measurements of optoacoustically-induced responses in ex-vivo murine skulls immersed in water. Dispersion of the guided waves was found to reasonably agree with the prediction of a multilayered flat plate model. We observed a skull-guided wave propagation over a lateral distance of at least 3 mm, with a half-decay length in the direction perpendicular to the skull ranging from 35 to 300 μm at 6 and 0.5 MHz, respectively. Propagation losses are mostly attributed to the heterogenous acoustic properties of the skull. It is generally anticipated that our findings may facilitate and broaden the application of ultrasound-mediated techniques in brain diagnostics and therapy.

  6. Education and Political Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massialas, Byron G.

    1977-01-01

    Considers how education is related to politics with the focus on political socialization, political recruitment, i.e., the selection and training of political elites, and political integration or nation building of groups of people. (Author/RK)

  7. Gateway Political Behaviors: The Frequency and Consequences of Low-Cost Political Engagement on Social Media

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leticia Bode

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to determine to what extent engagement in easy political behaviors on social media occurs across the range of political interest, what predicts such engagement, and what effect such engagement may have on other political behaviors. It pits the idea that social media may activate the politically uninterested against the idea that social media is just another outlet for the politically interested to demonstrate their engagement. Analyzing survey data collected by the Pew Research Center, it concludes that many people, including the politically uninterested, do engage in easy political behaviors like liking and commenting on political content on social media. When they do, it can lead to greater political activity offline. However, those most likely to engage in easy political behaviors are also those who engage in harder political behaviors, offering support for both the interest and activation hypotheses.

  8. Predicted and observed therapeutic dose exceedances of ionizable pharmaceuticals in fish plasma from urban coastal systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, W Casan; Du, Bowen; Haddad, Samuel P; Breed, Christopher S; Saari, Gavin N; Kelly, Martin; Broach, Linda; Chambliss, C Kevin; Brooks, Bryan W

    2016-04-01

    Instream flows of the rapidly urbanizing watersheds and estuaries of the Gulf of Mexico in Texas (USA) are increasingly dominated by reclaimed waters. Though ionizable pharmaceuticals have received increasing attention in freshwaters, many research questions remain unanswered, particularly in tidally influenced urban coastal systems, which experience significant spatiotemporal variability in pH that influences bioavailability and bioaccumulation. The authors coupled fish plasma modeling of therapeutic hazard values with field monitoring of water chemistry variability and pharmaceutical occurrence to examine whether therapeutic hazards to fish existed within these urban coastal ecosystems and whether therapeutic hazards differed within and among coastal locations and seasons. Spatial and temporal fluctuations in pH within study sites altered the probability of encountering pharmaceutical hazards to fish. Significant water quality differences were consistently observed among traditional parameters and pharmaceuticals collected from surface and bottom waters, which are rarely sampled during routine surface water quality assessments. The authors then compared modeling predictions of fish plasma concentrations of pharmaceuticals to measured plasma levels from various field-collected fish species. Diphenhydramine and diltiazem were observed in plasma of multiple species, and diltiazem exceeded human therapeutic doses in largemouth bass, catfish, and mullet inhabiting these urban estuaries. Though the present study only examined a small number of target analytes, which represent a microcosm of the exposome of these fish, coastal systems are anticipated to be more strongly influenced by continued urbanization, altered instream flows, and population growth in the future. Unfortunately, aquatic toxicology information for diltiazem and many other pharmaceuticals is not available for marine and estuarine organisms, but such field observations suggest that potential adverse

  9. USA National Phenology Network’s volunteer-contributed observations yield predictive models of phenological transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crimmins, Theresa M.; Crimmins, Michael A.; Gerst, Katherine L.; Rosemartin, Alyssa H.; Weltzin, Jake

    2017-01-01

    In support of science and society, the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) maintains a rapidly growing, continental-scale, species-rich dataset of plant and animal phenology observations that with over 10 million records is the largest such database in the United States. Contributed voluntarily by professional and citizen scientists, these opportunistically collected observations are characterized by spatial clustering, inconsistent spatial and temporal sampling, and short temporal depth. We explore the potential for developing models of phenophase transitions suitable for use at the continental scale, which could be applied to a wide range of resource management contexts. We constructed predictive models of the onset of breaking leaf buds, leaves, open flowers, and ripe fruits – phenophases that are the most abundant in the database and also relevant to management applications – for all species with available data, regardless of plant growth habit, location, geographic extent, or temporal depth of the observations. We implemented a very basic model formulation - thermal time models with a fixed start date. Sufficient data were available to construct 107 individual species × phenophase models. Of these, fifteen models (14%) met our criteria for model fit and error and were suitable for use across the majority of the species’ geographic ranges. These findings indicate that the USA-NPN dataset holds promise for further and more refined modeling efforts. Further, the candidate models that emerged could be used to produce real-time and short-term forecast maps of the timing of such transitions to directly support natural resource management.

  10. Using fire-weather forecasts and local weather observations in predicting burning index for individual fire-danger stations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen P. Cramer

    1958-01-01

    Any agency engaged in forest-fire control needs accurate weather forecasts and systematic procedures for making the best use of predicted and reported weather information. This study explores the practicability of using several tabular and graphical aids for converting area forecasts and local observations of relative humidity and wind speed into predicted values for...

  11. New England observed and predicted August stream/river temperature maximum positive daily rate of change points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted August stream/river temperature maximum positive daily rate of change in New England based on a...

  12. New England observed and predicted July stream/river temperature maximum positive daily rate of change points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted July stream/river temperature maximum positive daily rate of change in New England based on a...

  13. New England observed and predicted July maximum negative stream/river temperature daily rate of change points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted July stream/river temperature maximum negative daily rate of change in New England based on a...

  14. Psychedelics, Personality and Political Perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nour, Matthew M; Evans, Lisa; Carhart-Harris, Robin L

    2017-01-01

    The psychedelic experience (including psychedelic-induced ego dissolution) can effect lasting change in a person's attitudes and beliefs. Here, we aimed to investigate the association between naturalistic psychedelic use and personality, political perspectives, and nature relatedness using an anonymous internet survey. Participants (N = 893) provided information about their naturalistic psychedelic, cocaine, and alcohol use, and answered questions relating to personality traits of openness and conscientiousness (Ten-Item Personality Inventory), nature relatedness (Nature-Relatedness Scale), and political attitudes (one-item liberalism-conservatism measure and five-item libertarian-authoritarian measure). Participants also rated the degree of ego dissolution experienced during their "most intense" recalled psychedelic experience (Ego-Dissolution Inventory). Multivariate linear regression analysis indicated that lifetime psychedelic use (but not lifetime cocaine use or weekly alcohol consumption) positively predicted liberal political views, openness and nature relatedness, and negatively predicted authoritarian political views, after accounting for potential confounding variables. Ego dissolution experienced during a participant's "most intense" psychedelic experience positively predicted liberal political views, openness and nature relatedness, and negatively predicted authoritarian political views. Further work is needed to investigate the nature of the relationship between the peak psychedelic experience and openness to new experiences, egalitarian political views, and concern for the environment.

  15. High resolution solar observations in the context of space weather prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Guo

    Space weather has a great impact on the Earth and human life. It is important to study and monitor active regions on the solar surface and ultimately to predict space weather based on the Sun's activity. In this study, a system that uses the full power of speckle masking imaging by parallel processing to obtain high-spatial resolution images of the solar surface in near real-time has been developed and built. The application of this system greatly improves the ability to monitor the evolution of solar active regions and to predict the adverse effects of space weather. The data obtained by this system have also been used to study fine structures on the solar surface and their effects on the upper solar atmosphere. A solar active region has been studied using high resolution data obtained by speckle masking imaging. Evolution of a pore in an active region presented. Formation of a rudimentary penumbra is studied. The effects of the change of the magnetic fields on the upper level atmosphere is discussed. Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have a great impact on space weather. To study the relationship between CMEs and filament disappearance, a list of 431 filament and prominence disappearance events has been compiled. Comparison of this list with CME data obtained by satellite has shown that most filament disappearances seem to have no corresponding CME events. Even for the limb events, only thirty percent of filament disappearances are associated with CMEs. A CME event that was observed on March 20, 2000 has been studied in detail. This event did not show the three-parts structure of typical CMEs. The kinematical and morphological properties of this event were examined.

  16. Political ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strohm, H.

    1979-01-01

    Using facts and examples, this didactically structures textbook gives an insight into the extent and consequences of the damage to the environment, with the subjects - fundamentals of ecology; - population and food problems; - the energy problem; - economic growth; scarcity of resources, recycling; - ground, water, and air pollution, - city and traffic problems; - work protection and medical care; - political alternatives and 'soft technologies'. The analysis of the political and economic reasons is combined with social and technical alternatives from which demands to be made and measures to be taken can be derived for individuals, citizens' interest groups, political groups and trade unions. Teaching models intend to help teachers to work on specific problems of ecology. (orig.) [de

  17. Political priorities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ren, Jingzheng

    2016-01-01

    …THE POLITICAL LEADERS of the local government of Chongqing, China, vigorously promote a low-carbon economy and sustainable development to mitigate environmental pollution. Accordingly, research grants focused on this issue were supported by the government, and our group obtained a grant for a pr......…THE POLITICAL LEADERS of the local government of Chongqing, China, vigorously promote a low-carbon economy and sustainable development to mitigate environmental pollution. Accordingly, research grants focused on this issue were supported by the government, and our group obtained a grant...... for a project about industrial park planning and design.…In my view, political priorities based on correct decision-making and market requirements are beneficial for researchers....

  18. Predator Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary Louisa Cappelli

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Edward Abbey’s Desert Solitaire and Barbara Kingsolver’s Prodigal Summer urges readers to see coyotes as crucial members of the natural community whose predation is essential for the maintenance of biodiversity and ecological stability. Their cultural production provides a human story of ecocritical engagement for understanding the cascading effects of removing top predators from their ecosystems. By envisioning biocentric possibilities within place-based and scientific contexts, Edward Abbey and Barbara Kingsolver share a common theme of political ecology: political processes shape ecological conditions. A close reading of Edward Abbey’s Desert Solitaire and Barbara Kingsolver’s Prodigal Summer provides a literary entryway to connect research, arguments, and discourse across disciplines tasking readers to engage in political discussions of environmental sustainability and to consider viable solutions to preserve the ecological diversity of our predator populations and ecosystems.

  19. Exploring students' perceptions and performance on predict-observe-explain tasks in high school chemistry laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vadapally, Praveen

    This study sought to understand the impact of gender and reasoning level on students' perceptions and performances of Predict-Observe-Explain (POE) laboratory tasks in a high school chemistry laboratory. Several literature reviews have reported that students at all levels have not developed the specific knowledge and skills that were expected from their laboratory work. Studies conducted over the last several decades have found that boys tend to be more successful than girls in science and mathematics courses. However, some recent studies have suggested that girls may be reducing this gender gap. This gender difference is the focal point of this research study, which was conducted at a mid-western, rural high school. The participants were 24 boys and 25 girls enrolled in two physical science classes taught by the same teacher. In this mixed methods study, qualitative and quantitative methods were implemented simultaneously over the entire period of the study. MANOVA statistics revealed significant effects due to gender and level of reasoning on the outcome variables, which were POE performances and perceptions of the chemistry laboratory environment. There were no significant interactions between these effects. For the qualitative method, IRB-approved information was collected, coded, grouped, and analyzed. This method was used to derive themes from students' responses on questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. Students with different levels of reasoning and gender were interviewed, and many of them expressed positive themes, which was a clear indication that they had enjoyed participating in the POE learning tasks and they had developed positive perceptions towards POE inquiry laboratory learning environment. When students are capable of formal reasoning, they can use an abstract scientific concept effectively and then relate it to the ideas they generate in their minds. Thus, instructors should factor the nature of students' thinking abilities into their

  20. Considerations of the Use of 3-D Geophysical Models to Predict Test Ban Monitoring Observables

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-09-01

    predict first P arrival times. Since this is a 3-D model, the travel times are predicted with a 3-D finite-difference code solving the eikonal equations...for the eikonal wave equation should provide more accurate predictions of travel-time from 3D models. These techniques and others are being

  1. SIGNATURES OF MRI-DRIVEN TURBULENCE IN PROTOPLANETARY DISKS: PREDICTIONS FOR ALMA OBSERVATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simon, Jacob B. [Department of Space Studies, Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, CO 80302 (United States); Hughes, A. Meredith; Flaherty, Kevin M. [Astronomy Department, Van Vleck Observatory, Wesleyan University, 96 Foss Hill Dr., Middletown, CT 06459 (United States); Bai, Xue-Ning [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden St., MS-51, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Armitage, Philip J., E-mail: jbsimon.astro@gmail.com [JILA, University of Colorado and NIST, 440 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309-0440 (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Spatially resolved observations of molecular line emission have the potential to yield unique constraints on the nature of turbulence within protoplanetary disks. Using a combination of local non-ideal magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations and radiative transfer calculations, tailored to properties of the disk around HD 163296, we assess the ability of ALMA to detect turbulence driven by the magnetorotational instability (MRI). Our local simulations show that the MRI produces small-scale turbulent velocity fluctuations that increase in strength with height above the mid-plane. For a set of simulations at different disk radii, we fit a Maxwell–Boltzmann distribution to the turbulent velocity and construct a turbulent broadening parameter as a function of radius and height. We input this broadening into radiative transfer calculations to quantify observational signatures of MRI-driven disk turbulence. We find that the ratio of the peak line flux to the flux at line center is a robust diagnostic of turbulence that is only mildly degenerate with systematic uncertainties in disk temperature. For the CO(3–2) line, which we expect to probe the most magnetically active slice of the disk column, variations in the predicted peak-to-trough ratio between our most and least turbulent models span a range of approximately 15%. Additional independent constraints can be derived from the morphology of spatially resolved line profiles, and we estimate the resolution required to detect turbulence on different spatial scales. We discuss the role of lower optical depth molecular tracers, which trace regions closer to the disk mid-plane where velocities in MRI-driven models are systematically lower.

  2. Predict-share-observe-explain learning activity for the Torricelli's tank experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panich, Charunya; Puttharugsa, Chokchai; Khemmani, Supitch

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to study the students' scientific concept and achievement on fluid mechanics before and after the predict-share-observe-explain (PSOE) learning activity for the Torricelli's tank experiment. The 24 participants, who were selected by purposive sampling, were students at grade 12 at Nannakorn School, Nan province. A one group pre-test/post-test design was employed in the study. The research instruments were 1) the lesson plans using the PSOE learning activity and 2) two-tier multiple choice question and subjective tests. The results indicated that students had better scientific concept about Torricelli's tank experiment and the post-test mean score was significantly higher than the pre-test mean score at a 0.05 level of significance. Moreover, the students had retention of knowledge after the PSOE learning activity for 4 weeks at a 0.05 level of significance. The study showed that the PSOE learning activity is suitable for developing students' scientific concept and achievement.

  3. The use of zeolites in countermeasure strategy: predicted versus observed effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valcke, E; Van Hees, M; Cremers, A

    1996-09-18

    Among the possible remedial actions to reduce the soil-to-plant transfer of radiocaesium and radiostrontium, the addition of clay minerals or zeolites aims at increasing permanently the radionuclide fraction adsorbed on the solid phase, thus lowering the radionuclide solution level available for root uptake. The traditional procedure to test the effectiveness of such amendments is rather empirical: the amendments are applied to the soil and the effect is expressed in terms of the change of the transfer factor, defined as the ratio of Bq per kilogram plant and soil. This procedure yields no insight in the processes responsible for the observed effect and does not allow predictions for other scenarios. Based on the knowledge that soil-to-plant transfer essentially depends on soil type, the use of soil amendments was investigated by quantitatively addressing the physico-chemical parameters which govern solid/liquid partitioning of radionuclides in soils and soil amendments. It is shown that this approach allows to identify the potential soil/amendment combinations to estimate the effects to be expected.

  4. Comparison of predicted and observed pore pressure increases on Rio Blanco

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banister, J.R.; Ellett, D.M.; Pyke, R.; Winters, L.

    1976-01-01

    The RIO BLANCO event presented the opportunity to monitor, under controlled conditions in the field, the increase in pore pressures resulting from ground motion similar to an earthquake. In situ measurements of pore pressure changes were made by Sandia Laboratories and Dames and Moore. This report contains the results of laboratory tests believed to be indicative in assessing the magnitude of pore pressure increases and probability of soil liquefaction. These include triaxial load tests, gradation of grain size, and relative density. No liquefaction was observed in the field, and the increase of in situ pore pressures were much less than expected from laboratory measurements. Allied subjects presented in this report are pore pressure propagation and dissipation profiles, the previously unpublished pore pressure measurements made by Dames and Moore, and the boring logs for the various sites where measurements were taken. It is concluded that methods used to predict pore pressure increases and liquefaction potential are overly conservative, at least for these alluvial and colluvial soils found in Colorado

  5. Using self-organizing maps to determine observation threshold limit predictions in highly variant data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paganoni, C.A.; Chang, K.C.; Robblee, M.B.

    2006-01-01

    A significant data quality challenge for highly variant systems surrounds the limited ability to quantify operationally reasonable limits on the data elements being collected and provide reasonable threshold predictions. In many instances, the number of influences that drive a resulting value or operational range is too large to enable physical sampling for each influencer, or is too complicated to accurately model in an explicit simulation. An alternative method to determine reasonable observation thresholds is to employ an automation algorithm that would emulate a human analyst visually inspecting data for limits. Using the visualization technique of self-organizing maps (SOM) on data having poorly understood relationships, a methodology for determining threshold limits was developed. To illustrate this approach, analysis of environmental influences that drive the abundance of a target indicator species (the pink shrimp, Farfantepenaeus duorarum) provided a real example of applicability. The relationship between salinity and temperature and abundance of F. duorarum is well documented, but the effect of changes in water quality upstream on pink shrimp abundance is not well understood. The highly variant nature surrounding catch of a specific number of organisms in the wild, and the data available from up-stream hydrology measures for salinity and temperature, made this an ideal candidate for the approach to provide a determination about the influence of changes in hydrology on populations of organisms.

  6. Coupling rainfall observations and satellite soil moisture for predicting event soil loss in Central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todisco, Francesca; Brocca, Luca; Termite, Loris Francesco; Wagner, Wolfgang

    2015-04-01

    The accuracy of water soil loss prediction depends on the ability of the model to account for effects of the physical phenomena causing the output and the accuracy by which the parameters have been determined. The process based models require considerable effort to obtain appropriate parameter values and their failure to produce better results than achieved using the USLE/RUSLE model, encourages the use of the USLE/RUSLE model in roles of which it was not designed. In particular it is widely used in watershed models even at the event temporal scale. At hillslope scale, spatial variability in soil and vegetation result in spatial variations in soil moisture and consequently in runoff within the area for which soil loss estimation is required, so the modeling approach required to produce those estimates needs to be sensitive to those spatial variations in runoff. Some models include explicit consideration of runoff in determining the erosive stresses but this increases the uncertainty of the prediction due to the difficulty in parameterising the models also because the direct measures of surface runoff are rare. The same remarks are effective also for the USLE/RUSLE models including direct consideration of runoff in the erosivity factor (i.e. USLE-M by Kinnell and Risse, 1998, and USLE-MM by Bagarello et al., 2008). Moreover actually most of the rainfall-runoff models are based on the knowledge of the pre-event soil moisture that is a fundamental variable in the rainfall-runoff transformation. In addiction soil moisture is a readily available datum being possible to have easily direct pre-event measures of soil moisture using in situ sensors or satellite observations at larger spatial scale; it is also possible to derive the antecedent water content with soil moisture simulation models. The attempt made in the study is to use the pre-event soil moisture to account for the spatial variation in runoff within the area for which the soil loss estimates are required. More

  7. Political Consciousness but Not Political Engagement: Results from a Service-Learning Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harker, Dave

    2016-01-01

    How does participation in a service-learning program impact the way students think about politics and political engagement? There are reasons to expect that service-learning can contribute to the development of a political consciousness and the skills necessary for political participation. The author uses participant observation, in-depth…

  8. Political Socialization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Himmelweit, Hilde T.

    1983-01-01

    Described are two longitudinal studies, one British, the other American, which examined the influences of varied socializing agents--e.g., family, school, peer groups--on voting behavior. The studies emphasized the hitherto unappreciated importance of the political, social, and economic climate of society and its changes on socialization. (CS)

  9. Politics 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslow, Abraham

    1977-01-01

    This article expresses some last thoughts from Abraham Maslow on his vision of humanistic psychology. He suggests that the two main problems of creating the good person and the good society are interwoven inextricably. He gives some social and political mechanisms which would enhance desirable personal growth and considers the main tasks of…

  10. Implementation Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hegland, Troels Jacob; Raakjær, Jesper

    2008-01-01

    level are supplemented or even replaced by national priorities. The chapter concludes that in order to capture the domestic politics associated with CFP implementation in Denmark, it is important to understand the policy process as a synergistic interaction between dominant interests, policy alliances...

  11. Political Rationality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solhaug, Trond; Kristensen, Niels Nørgaard

    The very idea about democracies is public participation in elections, decision-making and/or public engagement. The democratic participation distributes power among ordinary people and serve to legitimize decisions in public affairs and is a vital characteristic of a political culture.”The term...

  12. Framing politics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lecheler, S.K.

    2010-01-01

    This dissertation supplies a number of research findings that add to a theory of news framing effects, and also to the understanding of the role media effects play in political communication. We show that researchers must think more about what actually constitutes a framing effect, and that a

  13. ``Political'' Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berzak Hopkins, Laura

    2013-03-01

    Politics and policy affect all of us, both as scientists and as citizens, and issues ranging from laboratory budgets to arms control treaties clearly require research problem-solving skills and technical expertise. There is a critical role for scientists in each aspect of the political system, and in fact, we as a society need more scientists to take part in politics. Furthermore, the research we pursue has important societal applications and is fascinating! We have a right and a responsibility to share our scientific knowledge not only with each other, but with the general public as well. So, why are we as a community of scientists reticent in the public arena, hesitant to enter politics, and even at times unsupportive of our peers who transition into governmental roles? In this time of fiscal constraint, when difficult research funding (and de-funding) choices are regularly being made, we as scientists must step up to the plate, reach across the aisle, and explain why what we do is fascinating, inspiring, and important, not just to us, but to society as a whole. A range of policy-relevant roles exists inside and outside the laboratory, such as Congressional Fellowships. Each year the Congressional Fellowships program brings together approximately thirty scientists at all stages of their careers to serve as scientific advisors in a variety of offices in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. Although the jump from lab to lobbying meetings can be frustrating, the transition can also be intriguing. Firsthand experience with the ``how'' and ``why'' (or lack thereof) of politics and policy is invaluable and provides a unique opportunity to expand and broaden one's background. The opportunity to work on Capitol Hill is unparalleled, particularly because our nation has a definite need for scientists with the inclination and interest to inform and develop policy. But, whatever role you decide to take, from contributing scientific news to local publications to

  14. Predicting the optical observables for nucleon scattering on even-even actinides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martyanov, D. S.; Soukhovitskiĩ, E. Sh.; Capote, R.; Quesada, J. M.; Chiba, S.

    2017-09-01

    The previously derived Lane consistent dispersive coupled-channel optical model for nucleon scattering on 232Th and 238U nuclei is extended to describe scattering on even-even actinides with Z = 90-98. A soft-rotator-model (SRM) description of the low-lying nuclear structure is used, where the SRM Hamiltonian parameters are adjusted to the observed collective levels of the target nucleus. SRM nuclear wave functions (mixed in K quantum number) have been used to calculate the coupling matrix elements of the generalized optical model. The “effective” deformations that define inter-band couplings are derived from the SRM Hamiltonian parameters. Conservation of nuclear volume is enforced by introducing a dynamic monopolar term to the deformed potential, leading to additional couplings between rotational bands. The fitted static deformation parameters are in very good agreement with those derived by Wang and collaborators using the Weizsäcker-Skyrme global mass model (WS4), allowing use of the latter to predict cross sections for nuclei without experimental data. A good description of the scarce “optical” experimental database is achieved. SRM couplings and volume conservation allow a precise calculation of the compound-nucleus formation cross sections, which is significantly different from that calculated with rigid-rotor potentials coupling the ground-state rotational band. The derived parameters can be used to describe both neutron- and proton-induced reactions. Supported by International Atomic Energy Agency, through the IAEA Research Contract 19263, by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitivity under Contracts FPA2014-53290-C2-2-P and FPA2016-77689-C2-1-R.

  15. Diabetes that impacts on routine activities predicts slower recovery after total knee arthroplasty: an observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurudeen Amusat

    2014-12-01

    . Physiotherapists could institute closer monitoring within the hospital and community settings for people undergoing TKA who perceive that diabetes impacts on their routine activities. [Amusat N, Beaupre L, Jhangri GS, Pohar SL, Simpson S, Warren S, Jones CA (2014 Diabetes that impacts on routine activities predicts slower recovery after total knee arthroplasty: an observational study. Journal of Physiotherapy 60: 217–223

  16. Exploring Women's Understanding of Politics, Political Contestation ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Exploring Women's Understanding of Politics, Political Contestation and Gender ... First, researchers will explore women's political leadership and the extent to ... Sign up now for IDRC news and views sent directly to your inbox each month.

  17. A novel machine learning model to predict abnormal Runway Occupancy Times and observe related precursors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herrema, Herrema Floris; Treve, V; Desart, B; Curran, R.; Visser, H.G.

    2017-01-01

    Accidents on the runway triggered the development and implementation of mitigation strategies. Therefore, the airline industry is moving toward proactive risk management, which aims to identify and predict risk percursors and to mitigate risks before accidents occur. For certain predictions Machine

  18. Political Ideology, Trust, and Cooperation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balliet, Daniel; Tybur, Joshua M.; Wu, Junhui; Antonellis, Christian; Van Lange, Paul A. M.

    2016-01-01

    Theories suggest that political ideology relates to cooperation, with conservatives being more likely to pursue selfish outcomes, and liberals more likely to pursue egalitarian outcomes. In study 1, we examine how political ideology and political party affiliation (Republican vs. Democrat) predict cooperation with a partner who self-identifies as Republican or Democrat in two samples before (n = 362) and after (n = 366) the 2012 US presidential election. Liberals show slightly more concern for their partners’ outcomes compared to conservatives (study 1), and in study 2 this relation is supported by a meta-analysis (r = .15). However, in study 1, political ideology did not relate to cooperation in general. Both Republicans and Democrats extend more cooperation to their in-group relative to the out-group, and this is explained by expectations of cooperation from in-group versus out-group members. We discuss the relation between political ideology and cooperation within and between groups. PMID:29593363

  19. Guido Beck and the night of the long police batons: some observations about the relationship between physics and politics in the Argentinean context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Augusto Passos Videira

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper consists in presenting the reaction of the physicist Guido Beck (1903-1988 towards the political events that occurred in the University of Buenos Aires (UBA, during the second term of 1966. It is not our intention to write a deep treatise on the problem, but to outline some of the ideas that Guido Beck had on the relation between science, State and society in South-American context. That will be done by describing his reaction to the well-known ‘night of the long police batons’. Beck had always been sensitive to the political instability in Argentinean academic system, once that political and ideological disputes could jeopardize the work towards the establishment of a scientific community in that country. As a conclusion, I defend the thesis that in Beck’s point of view the physicists at UBA had misunderstood the importance they had to Argentinean government and to part of the population in that same country.

  20. Prediction of methotrexate intolerance in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: a prospective, observational cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dijkhuizen, Evert Hendrik Pieter; Bulatović Ćalasan, Maja; Pluijm, Saskia M F; de Rotte, Maurits C F J; Vastert, Sebastiaan J; Kamphuis, Sylvia; de Jonge, Robert; Wulffraat, Nico M

    2015-01-01

    Methotrexate (MTX) is an effective and safe drug in the treatment of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Despite its safety, MTX-related gastrointestinal adverse effects before and after MTX administration, termed MTX intolerance, occur frequently, leading to non-compliance and potentially premature MTX termination. The aim of this study was to construct a risk model to predict MTX intolerance. In a prospective JIA cohort, clinical variables and single nucleotide polymorphisms were determined at MTX start. The Methotrexate Intolerance Severity Score was employed to measure MTX intolerance in the first year of treatment. MTX intolerance was most prevalent at 6 or 12 months after MTX start, which was defined as the outcome for the prediction model. The model was developed in 152 patients using multivariable logistic regression analysis and subsequently internally validated using bootstrapping. The prediction model included the following predictors: JIA category, antinuclear antibody, parent/patient assessment of pain, Juvenile Arthritis Disease Activity Score-27, thrombocytes, alanine aminotransferase and creatinine. The model classified 77.5% of patients correctly, and 66.7% of patients after internal validation by bootstrapping. The lowest predicted risk of MTX intolerance was 18.9% and the highest predicted risk was 85.9%. The prediction model was transformed into a risk score (range 0-17). At a cut-off of ≥6, sensitivity was 82.0%, specificity 56.1%, positive predictive value was 58.7% and negative predictive value 80.4%. This clinical prediction model showed moderate predictive power to detect MTX intolerance. To develop into a clinically usable tool, it should be validated in an independent cohort and updated with new predictors. Such an easy-to-use tool could then assist clinicians in identifying patients at risk to develop MTX intolerance, and in turn to monitor them closely and intervene timely in order to prevent the development of MTX intolerance

  1. Underground Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galis, Vasilis; Summerton, Jane

    Public spaces are often contested sites involving the political use of sociomaterial arrangements to check, control and filter the flow of people (see Virilio 1977, 1996). Such arrangements can include configurations of state-of-the-art policing technologies for delineating and demarcating borders...... status updates on identity checks at the metro stations in Stockholm and reports on locations and time of ticket controls for warning travelers. Thus the attempts by authorities to exert control over the (spatial) arena of the underground is circumvented by the effective developing of an alternative...... infrastructural "underground" consisting of assemblages of technologies, activists, immigrants without papers, texts and emails, homes, smart phones and computers. Investigating the embedded politics of contested spatial arrangements as characteristic of specific societies one can discover not only the uses...

  2. GPS-VTEC near the magnetic equator during a high solar activity year: Observations and IRI predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ezquer, R.G.; Mosert, M.; Brunini, C.; Meza, A.; Cabrera, M.A.; Araoz, L.; Radicella, S.M.

    2002-01-01

    The validity of International Reference Ionosphere model to predict the vertical electron content (VTEC) over Arequipa (-16.5, 289.0; geoma. Lat.: - 5.1), station placed near the magnetic equator, is checked. VTEC measurements obtained with GPS satellite signals during year 2000 are considered. These data correspond to equinoxes and solstices. The results are similar to those obtained for the southern peak of the equatorial anomaly in previous work. In some cases, good VTEC predictions have been observed for hours of maximum ionisation. Overestimation for nighttime, sunrise and sunset hours were observed. The disagreements between predictions and measurements could arise because peak characteristics or the shape of the N profile, or both, are not well predicted. More studies including ionosonde measurements would be useful. (author)

  3. Prediction of human observer performance in a 2-alternative forced choice low-contrast detection task using channelized Hotelling observer: Impact of radiation dose and reconstruction algorithms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu Lifeng; Leng Shuai; Chen Lingyun; Kofler, James M.; McCollough, Cynthia H. [Department of Radiology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota 55905 (United States); Carter, Rickey E. [Division of Biomedical Statistics and Informatics, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota 55905 (United States)

    2013-04-15

    Purpose: Efficient optimization of CT protocols demands a quantitative approach to predicting human observer performance on specific tasks at various scan and reconstruction settings. The goal of this work was to investigate how well a channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) can predict human observer performance on 2-alternative forced choice (2AFC) lesion-detection tasks at various dose levels and two different reconstruction algorithms: a filtered-backprojection (FBP) and an iterative reconstruction (IR) method. Methods: A 35 Multiplication-Sign 26 cm{sup 2} torso-shaped phantom filled with water was used to simulate an average-sized patient. Three rods with different diameters (small: 3 mm; medium: 5 mm; large: 9 mm) were placed in the center region of the phantom to simulate small, medium, and large lesions. The contrast relative to background was -15 HU at 120 kV. The phantom was scanned 100 times using automatic exposure control each at 60, 120, 240, 360, and 480 quality reference mAs on a 128-slice scanner. After removing the three rods, the water phantom was again scanned 100 times to provide signal-absent background images at the exact same locations. By extracting regions of interest around the three rods and on the signal-absent images, the authors generated 21 2AFC studies. Each 2AFC study had 100 trials, with each trial consisting of a signal-present image and a signal-absent image side-by-side in randomized order. In total, 2100 trials were presented to both the model and human observers. Four medical physicists acted as human observers. For the model observer, the authors used a CHO with Gabor channels, which involves six channel passbands, five orientations, and two phases, leading to a total of 60 channels. The performance predicted by the CHO was compared with that obtained by four medical physicists at each 2AFC study. Results: The human and model observers were highly correlated at each dose level for each lesion size for both FBP and IR. The

  4. Prediction of human observer performance in a 2-alternative forced choice low-contrast detection task using channelized Hotelling observer: Impact of radiation dose and reconstruction algorithms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Lifeng; Leng Shuai; Chen Lingyun; Kofler, James M.; McCollough, Cynthia H.; Carter, Rickey E.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Efficient optimization of CT protocols demands a quantitative approach to predicting human observer performance on specific tasks at various scan and reconstruction settings. The goal of this work was to investigate how well a channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) can predict human observer performance on 2-alternative forced choice (2AFC) lesion-detection tasks at various dose levels and two different reconstruction algorithms: a filtered-backprojection (FBP) and an iterative reconstruction (IR) method. Methods: A 35 × 26 cm 2 torso-shaped phantom filled with water was used to simulate an average-sized patient. Three rods with different diameters (small: 3 mm; medium: 5 mm; large: 9 mm) were placed in the center region of the phantom to simulate small, medium, and large lesions. The contrast relative to background was −15 HU at 120 kV. The phantom was scanned 100 times using automatic exposure control each at 60, 120, 240, 360, and 480 quality reference mAs on a 128-slice scanner. After removing the three rods, the water phantom was again scanned 100 times to provide signal-absent background images at the exact same locations. By extracting regions of interest around the three rods and on the signal-absent images, the authors generated 21 2AFC studies. Each 2AFC study had 100 trials, with each trial consisting of a signal-present image and a signal-absent image side-by-side in randomized order. In total, 2100 trials were presented to both the model and human observers. Four medical physicists acted as human observers. For the model observer, the authors used a CHO with Gabor channels, which involves six channel passbands, five orientations, and two phases, leading to a total of 60 channels. The performance predicted by the CHO was compared with that obtained by four medical physicists at each 2AFC study. Results: The human and model observers were highly correlated at each dose level for each lesion size for both FBP and IR. The Pearson's product

  5. Political Epistemology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, David Budtz

    2011-01-01

    This dissertation is intended to establish a framework for a revised picture of the loci of epistemic preferences in our complex knowledge-based society. In what ways do institutions, policies and regulations determine the conditions under which knowledge is produced and justified? This dissertat......? This dissertation argues that we can identify multiple epistemic preferences in the institutional and political settings that govern the production and distribution of knowledge....

  6. A comparison between predicted and observed levels of 137Cs and 90Sr in the Baltic Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, S.P.

    1997-01-01

    A model based on compartmental analysis has been developed to simulate the dispersion of radionuclides in the Baltic Sea. The model is intended for the prediction of annual average concentrations of radionuclides in the marine environment. The quality of the model predictions has been investigated by comparing predicted levels of 137 Cs and 90 Sr in water, top sediment and biota with observed levels covering the period 1960-1992. The sources of radioactivity into the Baltic region that have been considered are fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing, fallout from the Chernobyl accident, liquid discharges to sea from the European reprocessing plants, and discharges from nuclear installations located in the Baltic Sea area. The predicted water concentrations are in good agreement with the observations for both radionuclides; the mean predictive accuracy of the model is close to unity. For the top sediment and biota concentrations the agreement is less favourable. The predicted water inventory data compare well with the observed data for the two radionuclides. The inventories of 137 Cs and 90 Sr in the Baltic Sea in 1994 have been estimated at 3200 TBq and 370 TBq, respectively. (author)

  7. Accuracy of clinical prediction rules in peptic ulcer perforation: an observational study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buck, David Levarett; Vester-Andersen, Morten; Møller, Morten Hylander

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Objective. The aim of the present study was to compare the ability of four clinical prediction rules to predict adverse outcome in perforated peptic ulcer (PPU): the Boey score, the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation...... and breastfeeding women, non-surgically treated patients, patients with malignant ulcers, and patients with perforation of other organs were excluded. Primary outcome measure: 30-day mortality rate. Statistical analysis: the ability of four clinical prediction rules to distinguish survivors from non...

  8. Demonstration of Linked UAV Observations and Atmospheric Model Predictions in Chem/Bio Attack Response

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Davidson, Kenneth

    2003-01-01

    ... meteorological data, and the means for linking the UAV data to real-time dispersion prediction. The primary modeling effort focused on an adaptation of the 'Wind On Constant Streamline Surfaces...

  9. Predictive modelling for swallowing dysfunction after primary (chemo)radiation: results of a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christianen, Miranda E M C; Schilstra, Cornelis; Beetz, Ivo; Muijs, Christina T; Chouvalova, Olga; Burlage, Fred R; Doornaert, Patricia; Koken, Phil W; Leemans, C René; Rinkel, Rico N P M; de Bruijn, Marieke J; de Bock, G H; Roodenburg, Jan L N; van der Laan, Bernard F A M; Slotman, Ben J; Verdonck-de Leeuw, Irma M; Bijl, Hendrik P; Langendijk, Johannes A

    2012-10-01

    The purpose of this large multicentre prospective cohort study was to identify which dose volume histogram parameters and pre-treatment factors are most important to predict physician-rated and patient-rated radiation-induced swallowing dysfunction (RISD) in order to develop predictive models for RISD after curative (chemo) radiotherapy ((CH) RT). The study population consisted of 354 consecutive head and neck cancer patients treated with (CH) RT. The primary endpoint was grade 2 or more swallowing dysfunction according to the RTOG/EORTC late radiation morbidity scoring criteria at 6 months after (CH) RT. The secondary endpoints were patient-rated swallowing complaints as assessed with the EORTC QLQ-H&N35 questionnaire. To select the most predictive variables a multivariate logistic regression analysis with bootstrapping was used. At 6 months after (CH) RT the bootstrapping procedure revealed that a model based on the mean dose to the superior pharyngeal constrictor muscle (PCM) and mean dose to the supraglottic larynx was most predictive. For the secondary endpoints different predictive models were found: for problems with swallowing liquids the most predictive factors were the mean dose to the supraglottic larynx and radiation technique (3D-CRT versus IMRT). For problems with swallowing soft food the mean dose to the middle PCM, age (18-65 versus >65 years), tumour site (naso/oropharynx versus other sites) and radiation technique (3D-CRT versus IMRT) were the most predictive factors. For problems with swallowing solid food the most predictive factors were the mean dose to the superior PCM, the mean dose to the supraglottic larynx and age (18-65 versus >65 years). And for choking when swallowing the V60 of the oesophageal inlet muscle and the mean dose to the supraglottic larynx were the most predictive factors. Physician-rated and patient-rated RISD in head and neck cancer patients treated with (CH) RT cannot be predicted with univariate relationships between the

  10. Modelling the behaviour of long-lived radionuclides in the Irish Sea - comparison of model predictions with field observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kershaw, P.J.; Pentreath, R.J.; Gurbutt, P.A.; Woodhead, D.S.; Durance, J.A.; Camplin, W.C.

    1988-01-01

    A multi-compartmental box model of the Irish Sea has been developed to predict the distribution and radiological consequences of radionuclides discharged from the Sellafield reprocessing plant. The box structure was based on observations of radionuclide distributions in the sea bed and the water circulation was generated from extensive time-series data on 137 Cs concentrations in seawater. Measurements of naturally-occurring nuclides provided both data on the extent and rate of these processes and a means to validate the model assumptions. The model structure is briefly outlined, comparisons are made between model predictions and field observation, and some of the difficulties in making such comparisons are discussed. (author)

  11. Political knowledge and awareness in adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furnham, A; Gunter, B

    1983-12-01

    Although some work has been done on adolescents' political attitudes, very little work has been done on their political knowledge. This study aimed to replicate a large study carried out eight years ago (Stradling, 1977) to see whether recent political changes altered adolescents' political knowledge and secondly to investigate the determinants (demographic, media usage, interest) of this knowledge. The results were strikingly similar to those of Stradling despite the smaller sample and the changes over time. The subjects appeared to know most about responsibility for public services and party political leaders and least about party political or parliamentary procedure. The canonical variable that best predicted overall knowledge was interest in politics and current affairs and to a lesser extent TV news watching and discussions with adults. The results are discussed in terms of political socialization and limitations of this work are considered.

  12. Predicting extreme rainfall events over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia: Impact of data assimilation with conventional and satellite observations

    KAUST Repository

    Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu

    2015-08-20

    The impact of variational data assimilation for predicting two heavy rainfall events that caused devastating floods in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia is studied using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. On 25 November 2009 and 26 January 2011, the city was deluged with more than double the annual rainfall amount caused by convective storms. We used a high resolution, two-way nested domain WRF model to simulate the two rainfall episodes. Simulations include control runs initialized with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) data and 3-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) data assimilation experiments conducted by assimilating NCEP prepbufr and radiance observations. Observations from Automated Weather Stations (AWS), synoptic charts, radar reflectivity and satellite pictures from the Presidency of Meteorology and Environment (PME), Jeddah, Saudi Arabia are used to assess the forecasting results. To evaluate the impact of the different assimilated observational datasets on the simulation of the major flooding event of 2009, we conducted 3DVAR experiments assimilating individual sources and a combination of all data sets. Results suggest that while the control run had a tendency to predict the storm earlier than observed, the assimilation of profile observations greatly improved the model\\'s thermodynamic structure and lead to better representation of simulated rainfall both in timing and amount. The experiment with assimilation of all available observations compared best with observed rainfall in terms of timing of the storm and rainfall distribution, demonstrating the importance of assimilating different types of observations. Retrospective experiments with and without data assimilation, for three different model lead times (48, 72 and 96-h), were performed to examine the skill of WRF model to predict the heavy rainfall events. Quantitative rainfall analysis of these simulations suggests that 48-h lead time runs with

  13. Political Warfare and Contentious Politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    the DC and PSLI Overt, Indirect • US forming a coalition with France and Britain to return Trieste to Italy control • US Urged French and British...efforts to alter Chile’s social construct by calling for the end to the Allende government, pointing out the failures of Marxism , encouraging a...political or social change. Frances Piven and Richard Cloward describe three attributes associated with group consciousness and cognitive

  14. Restoring Politics to Political History

    OpenAIRE

    Kousser, J. Morgan

    1982-01-01

    If history ever was simply the study of past politics, it is no longer. Dissatisfied with narratives of Great Men, more interested in analyzing the impact of larger forces and in tracing out patterns of the lives of the masses of people, skeptical that a recounting of election campaigns and a counting of votes reveals much about social thought or action, strongly affected by currents of opinion which have long run deep in France, American historians have turned increas...

  15. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Daily Minimum Air Temperature Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observational reports of daily air temperature (1200 UTC to 1200 UTC) are made by members of the NWS Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) network; NWS...

  16. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Daily Snow Fall Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observational reports of daily snow fall (1200 UTC to 1200 UTC) are made by members of the NWS Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) network and NWS Cooperative...

  17. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Daily Maximum Air Temperature Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observational reports of daily air temperature (1200 UTC to 1200 UTC) are made by members of the NWS Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) network; NWS...

  18. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Daily Snow Depth Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observational reports of current snow depth (at 1200 UTC) are made by members of the NWS Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) network and NWS Cooperative...

  19. A Personal Polity Introduction to Political Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brazier, James E.

    This paper presents an innovative way to teach Introduction to Political Science by breaking with the convention of teaching a survey course of all political science subfields. Each student is invited to be a participant-observer and apply political science perspectives to the data collected from his/her personal polity. Readings, research, and…

  20. The Political Dynamics of Higher Education Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dar, Luciana

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a framework informed by spatial models of politics to explain the dynamics of political competition in higher education policy and, in particular, the observed instability in the relationship between political variables and policy outcomes. To this end, I explore competing hypotheses for the relationship between government…

  1. Predicting detection performance with model observers: Fourier domain or spatial domain?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Baiyu; Yu, Lifeng; Leng, Shuai; Kofler, James; Favazza, Christopher; Vrieze, Thomas; McCollough, Cynthia

    2016-02-27

    The use of Fourier domain model observer is challenged by iterative reconstruction (IR), because IR algorithms are nonlinear and IR images have noise texture different from that of FBP. A modified Fourier domain model observer, which incorporates nonlinear noise and resolution properties, has been proposed for IR and needs to be validated with human detection performance. On the other hand, the spatial domain model observer is theoretically applicable to IR, but more computationally intensive than the Fourier domain method. The purpose of this study is to compare the modified Fourier domain model observer to the spatial domain model observer with both FBP and IR images, using human detection performance as the gold standard. A phantom with inserts of various low contrast levels and sizes was repeatedly scanned 100 times on a third-generation, dual-source CT scanner at 5 dose levels and reconstructed using FBP and IR algorithms. The human detection performance of the inserts was measured via a 2-alternative-forced-choice (2AFC) test. In addition, two model observer performances were calculated, including a Fourier domain non-prewhitening model observer and a spatial domain channelized Hotelling observer. The performance of these two mode observers was compared in terms of how well they correlated with human observer performance. Our results demonstrated that the spatial domain model observer correlated well with human observers across various dose levels, object contrast levels, and object sizes. The Fourier domain observer correlated well with human observers using FBP images, but overestimated the detection performance using IR images.

  2. Comparing large-scale hydrological model predictions with observed streamflow in the Pacific Northwest: effects of climate and groundwater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammad Safeeq; Guillaume S. Mauger; Gordon E. Grant; Ivan Arismendi; Alan F. Hamlet; Se-Yeun Lee

    2014-01-01

    Assessing uncertainties in hydrologic models can improve accuracy in predicting future streamflow. Here, simulated streamflows using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model at coarse (1/16°) and fine (1/120°) spatial resolutions were evaluated against observed streamflows from 217 watersheds. In...

  3. Political electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Price, Terence.

    1990-01-01

    This book is a non-technical exploration of the political and policy issues that have influenced the development of nuclear power. Part One describes the successes, failures, horse-trading, and infighting that make up nuclear power's history, taking nine counties as examples. Part Two reviews the main problems that now confront us, as seen in mid-June 1990; like all contemporary accounts, the book is unavoidably incomplete. However, by then it was possible to make provisional judgements about two very important recent influences: the political consequences of Chernobyl, and concerns about the greenhouse effect. The story that emerges is of a nuclear industry that has rarely been guilty of dereliction of duty, though it was undeniably complacent in not addressing sooner the causes of the public's entirely reasonable anxieties. The anti-nuclear lobby has been skilled in debate, and sometimes extraordinarily percipient; but less than fair in failing to acknowledge the industry's achievements and its willingness to learn from past mistakes. As for the politicians, the book contains many examples that show how the flames of controversy can be deliberately fanned when there are votes to be gained. The story has few heroes, but within the industry fewer villains than the public has been led to believe. (author)

  4. Street Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. Shapiro

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available I write from Prague, where, unlike in most urban formations, the main city street plays an iconic role; it references a history of political protest. However, before elaborating on the protest iconography of the Prague street, Vaclavske nam, I want to locate the ways in which the design of urban space is actualized in everyday life in the cities of the world. Three functions stand out; the first involves dwelling, the second seeing, and the third moving. With respect to the first function – dwelling – the design partitions and coordinates residential, commercial and leisure functions. At times these are organized to segregate different classes (Robert Moses’ redesign of much of New York stands out with respect to the segregation function. With respect to the second function – seeing – the design of urban space is allegiance-inspiring; it involves sight lines that afford urban dwellers and visitors views of iconic buildings and statues, which reference key founding moments in the past and/or authoritative political functions in the present (Here, L’Enfants design for Washington DC stands out as exemplary. Its manifest intention was to make the buildings housing executive, legislative and judicial functions visible from many vantage points. Rarely are the streets themselves iconic. Their dominant role is involved with the effectuation of movement. As for this third function: As Lewis Mumford famously points out, streets were once part of an asterisk design, radiating out from an exemplary, often spiritual center...

  5. The lucky image-motion prediction for simple scene observation based soft-sensor technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yan; Su, Yun; Hu, Bin

    2015-08-01

    High resolution is important to earth remote sensors, while the vibration of the platforms of the remote sensors is a major factor restricting high resolution imaging. The image-motion prediction and real-time compensation are key technologies to solve this problem. For the reason that the traditional autocorrelation image algorithm cannot meet the demand for the simple scene image stabilization, this paper proposes to utilize soft-sensor technology in image-motion prediction, and focus on the research of algorithm optimization in imaging image-motion prediction. Simulations results indicate that the improving lucky image-motion stabilization algorithm combining the Back Propagation Network (BP NN) and support vector machine (SVM) is the most suitable for the simple scene image stabilization. The relative error of the image-motion prediction based the soft-sensor technology is below 5%, the training computing speed of the mathematical predication model is as fast as the real-time image stabilization in aerial photography.

  6. An Other Perspective on Personality: Meta-Analytic Integration of Observers' Accuracy and Predictive Validity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connelly, Brian S.; Ones, Deniz S.

    2010-01-01

    The bulk of personality research has been built from self-report measures of personality. However, collecting personality ratings from other-raters, such as family, friends, and even strangers, is a dramatically underutilized method that allows better explanation and prediction of personality's role in many domains of psychology. Drawing…

  7. Translation of clinical prediction rules for febrile children to primary care practice : an observational cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ierland, Yvette; Elshout, Gijs; Berger, Marjolein Y.; Vergouwe, Yvonne; de Wilde, Marcel; van der Lei, Johan; Mol, Henritte A.; Oostenbrink, Rianne

    Background Clinical prediction rules (CPRs) to identify children with serious infections lack validation in low-prevalence populations, which hampers their implementation in primary care practice. Aim To evaluate the diagnostic value of published CPRs for febrile children in primary care. Design and

  8. Observation of shadowing of neutrino- and antineutrino-nucleus interactions and comparison with PCAC predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allport, P.P.; Radojicic, D.; Guy, J.; Venus, W.; Cooper-Sarkar, A.M.; Aderholz, M.; Schmitz, N.; Wittek, W.; Berggren, M.; Jones, G.T.; O'Neale, S.; Varvell, K.; Marage, P.; Mobayyen, M.; Morrison, D.R.O.; Parker, M.A.; Wachsmuth, H.; Neveu, M.; Simopoulou, E.; Vayaki, A.; Apeldoorn, G. van

    1989-01-01

    Comparing the kinematical distributions of events obtained on neon and deuterium targets in similar experimental conditions reveals a reduction of the neutrino and antineutrino charged current cross section per nucleon in neon at low Q 2 . The effect, interpreted as due to geometric shadowing of the weak propagator in interactions of neutrinos and antineutrinos with nuclei, agrees well with predictions derived from PCAC. (orig.)

  9. Observation of shadowing of neutrino- and antineutrino-nucleus interactions and comparison with PCAC predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allport, P. P.; Erriquez, O.; Guy, J.; Venus, W.; Aderholz, M.; Berggren, M.; Bullock, F. W.; Calicchio, M.; Coghen, T.; Cooper-Sarkar, A. M.; Jones, G. T.; Marage, P.; Mobayyen, M.; Morrison, D. R. O.; Neveu, M.; Parker, M. A.; Radojicic, D.; Sansum, R. A.; Saitta, B.; Schmitz, N.; Simopoulou, E.; O'neale, S.; Van Apeldoorn, G.; Varvell, K.; Vayaki, A.; Wachsmuth, H.; Wittek, W.; BEBC WA59 Collaboration

    1989-12-01

    Comparing the kinematical distributions of events obtained on neon and deuterium targets in similar experimental conditions reveals a reduction of the neutrino and antineutrino charged current cross section per nucleon in neon at low Q2. The effect, interpreted as due to geometric shadowing of the weak propagator in interactions of neutrinos and antineutrinos with nuclei, agrees well with predictions derived from PCAC.

  10. CADDIS Volume 4. Data Analysis: Predicting Environmental Conditions from Biological Observations (PECBO Appendix)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overview of PECBO Module, using scripts to infer environmental conditions from biological observations, statistically estimating species-environment relationships, methods for inferring environmental conditions, statistical scripts in module.

  11. Emotional Bias in Classroom Observations: Within-Rater Positive Emotion Predicts Favorable Assessments of Classroom Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floman, James L.; Hagelskamp, Carolin; Brackett, Marc A.; Rivers, Susan E.

    2017-01-01

    Classroom observations increasingly inform high-stakes decisions and research in education, including the allocation of school funding and the evaluation of school-based interventions. However, trends in rater scoring tendencies over time may undermine the reliability of classroom observations. Accordingly, the present investigations, grounded in…

  12. What is the Best Model Specification and Earth Observation Product for Predicting Regional Grain Yields in Food Insecure Countries?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davenport, F., IV; Harrison, L.; Shukla, S.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.

    2017-12-01

    We evaluate the predictive accuracy of an ensemble of empirical model specifications that use earth observation data to predict sub-national grain yields in Mexico and East Africa. Products that are actively used for seasonal drought monitoring are tested as yield predictors. Our research is driven by the fact that East Africa is a region where decisions regarding agricultural production are critical to preventing the loss of economic livelihoods and human life. Regional grain yield forecasts can be used to anticipate availability and prices of key staples, which can turn can inform decisions about targeting humanitarian response such as food aid. Our objective is to identify-for a given region, grain, and time year- what type of model and/or earth observation can most accurately predict end of season yields. We fit a set of models to county level panel data from Mexico, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia. We then examine out of sample predicative accuracy using various linear and non-linear models that incorporate spatial and time varying coefficients. We compare accuracy within and across models that use predictor variables from remotely sensed measures of precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and other land surface processes. We also examine at what point in the season a given model or product is most useful for determining predictive accuracy. Finally we compare predictive accuracy across a variety of agricultural regimes including high intensity irrigated commercial agricultural and rain fed subsistence level farms.

  13. Status of the observed and predicted b anti-b production at the Tevatron

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Happacher, F.; Giromini, P.; /Frascati; Ptohos, F.; /Cyprus U.

    2005-09-01

    The authors review the experimental status of the b-quark production at the Fermilab Tevatron. They compare all available measurements to perturbative QCD predictions (NLO and FONLL) and also to the parton-level cross section evaluated with parton-shower Monte Carlo generators. They examine both the single b cross section and the so called b{bar b} correlations. The review shows that the experimental situation is quite complicated because the measurements appear to be inconsistent among themselves. In this situation, there is no solid basis to either claim that perturbative QCD is challenged by these measurements or, in contrast, that long-standing discrepancies between data and theory have been resolved by incrementally improving the measurements and the theoretical prediction.

  14. Distributed Sensor Network for meteorological observations and numerical weather Prediction Calculations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Á. Vas

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The prediction of weather generally means the solution of differential equations on the base of the measured initial conditions where the data of close and distant neighboring points are used for the calculations. It requires the maintenance of expensive weather stations and supercomputers. However, if weather stations are not only capable of measuring but can also communicate with each other, then these smart sensors can also be applied to run forecasting calculations. This applies the highest possible level of parallelization without the collection of measured data into one place. Furthermore, if more nodes are involved, the result becomes more accurate, but the computing power required from one node does not increase. Our Distributed Sensor Network for meteorological sensing and numerical weather Prediction Calculations (DSN-PC can be applied in several different areas where sensing and numerical calculations, even the solution of differential equations, are needed.

  15. The politics of insight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvi, Carola; Cristofori, Irene; Grafman, Jordan; Beeman, Mark

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies showed that liberals and conservatives differ in cognitive style. Liberals are more flexible, and tolerant of complexity and novelty, whereas conservatives are more rigid, are more resistant to change, and prefer clear answers. We administered a set of compound remote associate problems, a task extensively used to differentiate problem-solving styles (via insight or analysis). Using this task, several researches have proven that self-reports, which differentiate between insight and analytic problem-solving, are reliable and are associated with two different neural circuits. In our research we found that participants self-identifying with distinct political orientations demonstrated differences in problem-solving strategy. Liberals solved significantly more problems via insight instead of in a step-by-step analytic fashion. Our findings extend previous observations that self-identified political orientations reflect differences in cognitive styles. More specifically, we show that type of political orientation is associated with problem-solving strategy. The data converge with previous neurobehavioural and cognitive studies indicating a link between cognitive style and the psychological mechanisms that mediate political beliefs.

  16. The politics of insight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvi, Carola; Cristofori, Irene; Grafman, Jordan; Beeman, Mark

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies showed that liberals and conservatives differ in cognitive style. Liberals are more flexible, and tolerant of complexity and novelty, whereas conservatives are more rigid, are more resistant to change, and prefer clear answers. We administered a set of compound remote associate problems, a task extensively used to differentiate problem-solving styles (via insight or analysis). Using this task, several researches have proven that self-reports, which differentiate between insight and analytic problem-solving, are reliable and are associated with two different neural circuits. In our research we found that participants self-identifying with distinct political orientations demonstrated differences in problem-solving strategy. Liberals solved significantly more problems via insight instead of in a step-by-step analytic fashion. Our findings extend previous observations that self-identified political orientations reflect differences in cognitive styles. More specifically, we show that type of political orientation is associated with problem-solving strategy. The data converge with previous neurobehavioural and cognitive studies indicating a link between cognitive style and the psychological mechanisms that mediate political beliefs. PMID:26810954

  17. Observed fearlessness and positive parenting interact to predict childhood callous-unemotional behaviors among low-income boys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waller, Rebecca; Shaw, Daniel S; Hyde, Luke W

    2017-03-01

    Callous-unemotional behaviors identify children at risk for severe and chronic antisocial behavior. Research is needed to establish pathways from temperament and parenting factors that give rise to callous-unemotional behaviors, including interactions of positive versus harsh parenting with child fearlessness. Multimethod data, including parent reports and observations of parent and child behavior, were drawn from a prospective, longitudinal sample of low-income boys (N = 310) with assessments at 18, 24, and 42 months, and at ages 10-12 years old. Parent-reported callous-unemotional, oppositional, and attention-deficit factors were separable at 42 months. Callous-unemotional behaviors at 42 months predicted callous-unemotional behaviors at ages 10-12, accounting for earlier oppositional and attention-deficit behaviors and self-reported child delinquency at ages 10-12. Observations of fearlessness at 24 months predicted callous-unemotional behaviors at 42 months, but only when parents exhibited low observed levels of positive parenting. The interaction of fearlessness and low positive parenting indirectly predicted callous-unemotional behaviors at 10-12 via callous-unemotional behaviors at 42 months. Early fearlessness interacts with low positive parenting to predict early callous-unemotional behaviors, with lasting effects of this person-by-context interaction on callous-unemotional behaviors into late childhood. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  18. Modeling long period swell in Southern California: Practical boundary conditions from buoy observations and global wave model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosby, S. C.; O'Reilly, W. C.; Guza, R. T.

    2016-02-01

    Accurate, unbiased, high-resolution (in space and time) nearshore wave predictions are needed to drive models of beach erosion, coastal flooding, and alongshore transport of sediment, biota and pollutants. On highly sheltered shorelines, wave predictions are sensitive to the directions of onshore propagating waves, and nearshore model prediction error is often dominated by uncertainty in offshore boundary conditions. Offshore islands and shoals, and coastline curvature, create complex sheltering patterns over the 250km span of southern California (SC) shoreline. Here, regional wave model skill in SC was compared for different offshore boundary conditions created using offshore buoy observations and global wave model hindcasts (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Wave Watch 3, WW3). Spectral ray-tracing methods were used to transform incident offshore swell (0.04-0.09Hz) energy at high directional resolution (1-deg). Model skill is assessed for predictions (wave height, direction, and alongshore radiation stress) at 16 nearshore buoy sites between 2000 and 2009. Model skill using buoy-derived boundary conditions is higher than with WW3-derived boundary conditions. Buoy-driven nearshore model results are similar with various assumptions about the true offshore directional distribution (maximum entropy, Bayesian direct, and 2nd derivative smoothness). Two methods combining offshore buoy observations with WW3 predictions in the offshore boundary condition did not improve nearshore skill above buoy-only methods. A case example at Oceanside harbor shows strong sensitivity of alongshore sediment transport predictions to different offshore boundary conditions. Despite this uncertainty in alongshore transport magnitude, alongshore gradients in transport (e.g. the location of model accretion and erosion zones) are determined by the local bathymetry, and are similar for all predictions.

  19. Fostering marginalized youths' political participation: longitudinal roles of parental political socialization and youth sociopolitical development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diemer, Matthew A

    2012-09-01

    This study examines the roles of parental political socialization and the moral commitment to change social inequalities in predicting marginalized youths' (defined here as lower-SES youth of color) political participation. These issues are examined by applying structural equation modeling to a longitudinal panel of youth. Because tests of measurement invariance suggested racial/ethnic heterogeneity, the structural model was fit separately for three racial/ethnic groups. For each group, parental political socialization: discussion predicted youths' commitment to produce social change and for two groups, longitudinally predicted political participation. This study contributes to the literature by examining civic/political participation among disparate racial/ethnic groups, addresses an open scholarly question (whether youths' commitment to create social change predicts their "traditional" participation), and emphasizes parents' role in fostering marginalized youths' civic and political participation.

  20. Observational attachment theory-based parenting measures predict children's attachment narratives independently from social learning theory-based measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matias, Carla; O'Connor, Thomas G; Futh, Annabel; Scott, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    Conceptually and methodologically distinct models exist for assessing quality of parent-child relationships, but few studies contrast competing models or assess their overlap in predicting developmental outcomes. Using observational methodology, the current study examined the distinctiveness of attachment theory-based and social learning theory-based measures of parenting in predicting two key measures of child adjustment: security of attachment narratives and social acceptance in peer nominations. A total of 113 5-6-year-old children from ethnically diverse families participated. Parent-child relationships were rated using standard paradigms. Measures derived from attachment theory included sensitive responding and mutuality; measures derived from social learning theory included positive attending, directives, and criticism. Child outcomes were independently-rated attachment narrative representations and peer nominations. Results indicated that Attachment theory-based and Social Learning theory-based measures were modestly correlated; nonetheless, parent-child mutuality predicted secure child attachment narratives independently of social learning theory-based measures; in contrast, criticism predicted peer-nominated fighting independently of attachment theory-based measures. In young children, there is some evidence that attachment theory-based measures may be particularly predictive of attachment narratives; however, no single model of measuring parent-child relationships is likely to best predict multiple developmental outcomes. Assessment in research and applied settings may benefit from integration of different theoretical and methodological paradigms.

  1. A comparison of the predicted and observed reaction rates of various neutron detectors in a thermal reactor spectrum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardiman, J.P.; Maunders, E.J.

    1963-08-01

    A number of the detectors commonly used in integral neutron spectrum measurements have been irradiated in the pitch moderator position of a Calder Hall lattice where the detailed energy spectrum is known from time of flight measurements. Predicted and observed reaction rates are generally in good agreement although they are brought into better agreement by a small modification to the spectrum. The predicted cadmium ratios are quite sensitive to the value adopted for the effective cadmium cut off energy, values of which were determined for various detectors using the Ferranti Mercury computer. The values varied over a wide range, although in every case only 40 mil. cadmium filters were used. (author)

  2. The Political Self: How Identity Aligns Preferences With Epistemic Needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Federico, Christopher M; Ekstrom, Pierce D

    2018-06-01

    Numerous studies have indicated that the need for closure predicts political preferences. We examined a potential moderator of this relationship: political-identity centrality, or the extent to which individuals' political preferences are central to their self-concept. We tested three hypotheses. First, we predicted that need for closure would be more strongly related to political identity (symbolic ideology and party identification; Hypothesis 1) and issue positions (operational ideology; Hypothesis 2) among individuals who see their political preferences as more self-central. Then we predicted that the stronger relationship between need for closure and issue positions among individuals high in centrality would be accounted for by stronger relationships between need for closure and political identity and between political identity and issue positions (Hypothesis 3). Data from a nationally representative survey provide evidence for these hypotheses, suggesting that the relationship between epistemic needs and political preferences differs as a function of how self-relevant politics is.

  3. Reported and observed controlling feeding practices predict child eating behavior after 12 months.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergmeier, Heidi J; Skouteris, Helen; Haycraft, Emma; Haines, Jess; Hooley, Merrilyn

    2015-06-01

    Controlling feeding practices are linked to children's self-regulatory eating practices and weight status. Maternal reports of controlling feeding practices are not always significantly related to independently rated mealtime observations. However, prior studies only assessed 1 mealtime observation, which may not be representative of typical mealtime settings or routines. The first aim was to examine associations between reported and observed maternal pressure to eat and restriction feeding practices at baseline (T1) and after ∼ 12 mo (T2). The second aim was to evaluate relations between maternal and child factors [e.g., concern about child weight, child temperament, child body mass index (BMI)-for-age z scores (BMIz)] at T1 and reported and observed maternal pressure to eat and restriction feeding practices (T1 and T2). The third aim was to assess prospective associations between maternal feeding practices (T1) and child eating behaviors (T2) and child BMIz (T2). A sample of 79 mother-child dyads in Victoria, Australia, participated in 2 lunchtime home observations (T1 and T2). BMI measures were collected during the visits. Child temperament, child eating behaviors, maternal parenting styles, and maternal feeding practices were evaluated at T1 and T2 via questionnaires. Associations were assessed with Pearson's correlation coefficients, paired t tests, and hierarchical regressions. Reported restriction (T1) was inversely associated with observed restriction at T1 (r = -0.24, P controlling strategies. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

  4. Observed and predicted reproduction of Ceriodaphnia dubia exposed to chloride, sulfate, and bicarbonate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasier, Peter J.; Hardin, Ian R.

    2010-01-01

    Chronic toxicities of Cl-, SO42-, and HCO3- to Ceriodaphnia dubia were evaluated in low- and moderate-hardness waters using a three-brood reproduction test method. Toxicity tests of anion mixtures were used to determine interaction effects and to produce models predicting C. dubia reproduction. Effluents diluted with low- and moderate-hardness waters were tested with animals acclimated to low- and moderate-hardness conditions to evaluate the models and to assess the effects of hardness and acclimation. Sulfate was significantly less toxic than Cl- and HCO3- in both types of water. Chloride and HCO3- toxicities were similar in low-hardness water, but HCO3- was the most toxic in moderate-hardness water. Low acute-to-chronic ratios indicate that toxicities of these anions will decrease quickly with dilution. Hardness significantly reduced Cl- and SO42- toxicity but had little effect on HCO3-. Chloride toxicity decreased with an increase in Na+ concentration, and CO3- toxicity may have been reduced by the dissolved organic carbon in effluent. Multivariate models using measured anion concentrations in effluents with low to moderate hardness levels provided fairly accurate predictions of reproduction. Determinations of toxicity for several effluents differed significantly depending on the hardness of the dilution water and the hardness of the water used to culture test animals. These results can be used to predict the contribution of elevated anion concentrations to the chronic toxicity of effluents; to identify effluents that are toxic due to contaminants other than Cl-, SO42-, and HCO3-; and to provide a basis for chemical substitutions in manufacturing processes.

  5. The Future of Geomagnetic Storm Predictions: Implications from Recent Solar and Interplanetary Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsurutani, B. T.; Gonzalez, W. D.

    1995-01-01

    Within the last 7-8 years, there has been a substantial growth in out knowledge of the solar and interplanetary causes of geomagnetic storms at Earth. This review article will not attempt to cover all of the work done during this period. This can be found elsewhere. Our emphasis here will be on recent efforts that expose important, presently unanswered questions that must be addressed and solved before true predictability of storms can be possible. Hopefully, this article will encourage some readers to join this effort and perhaps make major contributions to the field.

  6. Comparing observed and predicted mortality among ICUs using different prognostic systems: why do performance assessments differ?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Andrew A; Higgins, Thomas L; Zimmerman, Jack E

    2015-02-01

    To compare ICU performance using standardized mortality ratios generated by the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and a National Quality Forum-endorsed methodology and examine potential reasons for model-based standardized mortality ratio differences. Retrospective analysis of day 1 hospital mortality predictions at the ICU level using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and National Quality Forum models on the same patient cohort. Forty-seven ICUs at 36 U.S. hospitals from January 2008 to May 2013. Eighty-nine thousand three hundred fifty-three consecutive unselected ICU admissions. None. We assessed standardized mortality ratios for each ICU using data for patients eligible for Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and National Quality Forum predictions in order to compare unit-level model performance, differences in ICU rankings, and how case-mix adjustment might explain standardized mortality ratio differences. Hospital mortality was 11.5%. Overall standardized mortality ratio was 0.89 using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and 1.07 using National Quality Forum, the latter having a widely dispersed and multimodal standardized mortality ratio distribution. Model exclusion criteria eliminated mortality predictions for 10.6% of patients for Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and 27.9% for National Quality Forum. The two models agreed on the significance and direction of standardized mortality ratio only 45% of the time. Four ICUs had standardized mortality ratios significantly less than 1.0 using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa, but significantly greater than 1.0 using National Quality Forum. Two ICUs had standardized mortality ratios exceeding 1.75 using National Quality Forum, but nonsignificant performance using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa. Stratification by patient and institutional characteristics indicated that units caring for more

  7. Fundamental studies of aluminum corrosion in acidic and basic environments: Theoretical predictions and experimental observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lashgari, Mohsen; Malek, Ali M.

    2010-01-01

    Using quantum electrochemical approaches based on density functional theory and cluster/polarized continuum model, we investigated the corrosion behavior of aluminum in HCl and NaOH media containing phenol inhibitor. In this regard, we determined the geometry and electronic structure of the species at metal/solution interface. The investigations revealed that the interaction energies of hydroxide corrosive agents with aluminum surface should be more negative than those of chloride ones. The inhibitor adsorption in acid is more likely to have a physical nature while it appears as though to be chemical in basic media. To verify these predictions, using Tafel plots, we studied the phenomena from experimental viewpoint. The studies confirmed that the rate of corrosion in alkaline solution is substantially greater than in HCl media. Moreover, phenol is a potential-molecule having mixed-type inhibition mechanism. The relationship between inhibitory action and molecular parameters was discussed and the activity in alkaline media was also theoretically anticipated. This prediction was in accord with experiment.

  8. Perceived Medical School stress of undergraduate medical students predicts academic performance: an observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kötter, Thomas; Wagner, Josefin; Brüheim, Linda; Voltmer, Edgar

    2017-12-16

    Medical students are exposed to high amounts of stress. Stress and poor academic performance can become part of a vicious circle. In order to counteract this circularity, it seems important to better understand the relationship between stress and performance during medical education. The most widespread stress questionnaire designed for use in Medical School is the "Perceived Medical School Stress Instrument" (PMSS). It addresses a wide range of stressors, including workload, competition, social isolation and financial worries. Our aim was to examine the relation between the perceived Medical School stress of undergraduate medical students and academic performance. We measured Medical School stress using the PMSS at two different time points (at the end of freshman year and at the end of sophomore year) and matched stress scores together with age and gender to the first medical examination (M1) grade of the students (n = 456). PMSS scores from 2 and 14 months before M1 proved to be significant predictors for medical students' M1 grade. Age and gender also predict academic performance, making older female students with high stress scores a potential risk group for entering the vicious circle of stress and poor academic performance. PMSS sum scores 2 and 14 months before the M1 exam seem to have an independent predictive validity for medical students' M1 grade. More research is needed to identify potential confounders.

  9. Design and Application of Offset-Free Model Predictive Control Disturbance Observation Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Model predictive control (MPC with its lower request to the mathematical model, excellent control performance, and convenience online calculation has developed into a very important subdiscipline with rich theory foundation and practical application. However, unmeasurable disturbance is widespread in industrial processes, which is difficult to deal with directly at present. In most of the implemented MPC strategies, the method of incorporating a constant output disturbance into the process model is introduced to solve this problem, but it fails to achieve offset-free control once the unmeasured disturbances access the process. Based on the Kalman filter theory, the problem is solved by using a more general disturbance model which is superior to the constant output disturbance model. This paper presents the necessary conditions for offset-free model predictive control based on the model. By applying disturbance model, the unmeasurable disturbance vectors are augmented as the states of control system, and the Kalman filer is used to estimate unmeasurable disturbance and its effect on the output. Then, the dynamic matrix control (DMC algorithm is improved by utilizing the feed-forward compensation control strategy with the disturbance estimated.

  10. Some Aspects of Verbal Politeness in Maghrebi Arabic Dialects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca D'Anna

    2014-12-01

    Positive politeness, on the other hand, seems to be frequently employed, without the occurrence of any FTA, in standardised and predictable ways, thus questioning Brown and Levinson’s theory to a certain extent. The two scholars, in facts, considered the necessity to redress a FTA as the primary reason for the existence of verbal politeness, leaving all the phenomena that contradicted this tenet to the vague domain of the speakers’ spontaneous verbal inventiveness. The expressions observed in Maghrebi dialects, on the contrary, are not spontaneous, but part of the competence of all mature native speakers, who are usually expected to perform them. This independent existence of verbal politeness, thus, represents one of the most interesting features of Maghrebi Arabic dialects and a field that still calls for further research and investigation.

  11. Observing Preschoolers' Social-Emotional Behavior: Structure, Foundations, and Prediction of Early School Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denham, Susanne A.; Bassett, Hideko Hamada; Thayer, Sara K.; Mincic, Melissa S.; Sirotkin, Yana S.; Zinsser, Katherine

    2012-01-01

    Social-emotional behavior of 352 3- and 4-year-olds attending private childcare and Head Start programs was observed using the Minnesota Preschool Affect Checklist, Revised (MPAC-R). Goals of the investigation included (a) using MPAC-R data to extract a shortened version, MPAC-R/S, comparing structure, internal consistency, test-retest…

  12. Predicting Kindergarteners' Achievement and Motivation from Observational Measures of Teaching Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantzicopoulos, Panayota; Patrick, Helen; Strati, Anna; Watson, Jesse S.

    2018-01-01

    We investigated the premise that observation measures of instruction are indicators of effective teaching, using the definition of effectiveness articulated by departments of education: teaching that boosts student achievement. We argued that student motivation is equally as important as achievement in the evaluation of teaching effectiveness…

  13. Infants' Grip Strength Predicts Mu Rhythm Attenuation during Observation of Lifting Actions with Weighted Blocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Upshaw, Michaela B.; Bernier, Raphael A.; Sommerville, Jessica A.

    2016-01-01

    Research has established that the body is fundamentally involved in perception: bodily experience influences activation of the shared neural system underlying action perception and production during action observation, and bodily characteristics influence perception of the spatial environment. However, whether bodily characteristics influence…

  14. Predicted and observed cooling tower plume rise and visible plume length at the John E. Amos power plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanna, S R

    1976-01-01

    A one-dimensional numerical cloud growth model and several empirical models for plume rise and cloud growth are compared with twenty-seven sets of observations of cooling tower plumes from the 2900 MW John E. Amos power plant in West Virginia. The three natural draft cooling towers are 200 m apart. In a cross wind, the plumes begin to merge at a distance of about 500 m downwind. In calm conditions, with reduced entrainment, the plumes often do not merge until heights of 1000 m. The average plume rise, 750 m, is predicted well by the models, but day-to-day variations are simulated with a correlation coefficient of about 0.5. Model predictions of visible plume length agree, on the average, with observations for visible plumes of short to moderate length (less than about 1 km). The prediction of longer plumes is hampered by our lack of knowledge of plume spreading after the plumes level off. Cloud water concentrations predicted by the numerical model agree with those measured in natural cumulus clouds (about 0.1 to 1 g kg/sup -1/).

  15. Estimating Time-Varying PCB Exposures Using Person-Specific Predictions to Supplement Measured Values: A Comparison of Observed and Predicted Values in Two Cohorts of Norwegian Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nøst, Therese Haugdahl; Breivik, Knut; Wania, Frank; Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning

    2015-01-01

    , Rylander C, Odland JØ, Sandanger TM. 2016. Estimating time-varying PCB exposures using person-specific predictions to supplement measured values: a comparison of observed and predicted values in two cohorts of Norwegian women. Environ Health Perspect 124:299–305; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409191 PMID:26186800

  16. Predictions and Observations of Two-Plasmon Decay on the NIKE Laser System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Lee; Weaver, James; Oh, J.; Schmitt, A. J.; Obenschain, S.; Velikovich, A.

    2011-10-01

    NIKE is a Krf laser system at the Naval Research Laboratory used to explore hydrodynamic stability, equation of state, and other physics problems arising in IFE research. The short wavelength and large bandwidth of the NIKE laser is predicted to raise the threshold of parametric instabilities such as two-plasmon decay (TPD). We report on simulations performed using the FAST3d radiation hydrocode to design TPD experiments that have allowed us to explore the validity of simple threshold formulas and demonstrate the advantages of the KrF wavelength in suppressing LPI. We consider proposed high-gain shock ignition designs and show, through analytic estimates and simulations, that we can explore the relevant scalelength-temperature regime, providing an experimental method to study the LPI threat to these targets at a small fraction of their designed input energies. This research is funded by the US DOE, NRL, and ONR.

  17. Observed versus predicted cardiovascular events and all-cause death in HIV infection: a longitudinal cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Socio, Giuseppe Vittorio; Pucci, Giacomo; Baldelli, Franco; Schillaci, Giuseppe

    2017-06-12

    The aim of the study was to assess the applicability of an algorithm predicting 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) generated in the setting of the Framingham Heart Study to a real-life, contemporary Italian cohort of HIV-positive subjects. The study was an observational longitudinal cohort study. The probability for 10-year CVD events according to the Framingham algorithm was assessed in 369 consecutive HIV-positive participants free from overt CVD enrolled in 2004, who were followed for a median of 10.0 years (interquartile range, 9.1-10.1). Cardiovascular events included myocardial infarction, hospitalized heart failure, revascularized angina, sudden cardiac death, stroke, peripheral arterial disease. Over 3097 person-years of observation, we observed a total of 34 CVD events, whereas Framingham algorithm predicted the occurrence of 34.3 CVD events. CVD event rate was 11.0/1000 person-years of follow-up. In a receiver operating characteristics curve analysis, Framingham risk equation showed an excellent predictive value for incident CVD events (c-statistics, 0.83; 95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.90). In a multivariable Cox analysis, age, smoking and diabetes were independent predictors of CVD events. All-cause death rate was 20.0/1000 person-years of follow-up (n = 62 deaths). Causes of death included liver diseases (18), malignancies (14), AIDS-related (11); cardiovascular (9) and others (10). In a Cox analysis, age, AIDS diagnosis and chronic hepatitis were independent predictors of death. Observed CVD events in HIV-infected patients were well predicted by Framingham algorithm. Established major CVD risk factors are the strongest determinants of CVD morbidity in an Italian contemporary cohort of HIV-positive subjects. Interventions to modify traditional risk factors are urgently needed in HIV people.

  18. External Validation of Risk Prediction Scores for Invasive Candidiasis in a Medical/Surgical Intensive Care Unit: An Observational Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Armin; Baronia, Arvind Kumar; Azim, Afzal; Marak, Rungmei S. K.; Yadav, Reema; Sharma, Preeti; Gurjar, Mohan; Poddar, Banani; Singh, Ratender Kumar

    2017-01-01

    Background: The aim of this study was to conduct external validation of risk prediction scores for invasive candidiasis. Methods: We conducted a prospective observational study in a 12-bedded adult medical/surgical Intensive Care Unit (ICU) to evaluate Candida score >3, colonization index (CI) >0.5, corrected CI >0.4 (CCI), and Ostrosky's clinical prediction rule (CPR). Patients' characteristics and risk factors for invasive candidiasis were noted. Patients were divided into two groups; invasive candidiasis and no-invasive candidiasis. Results: Of 198 patients, 17 developed invasive candidiasis. Discriminatory power (area under receiver operator curve [AUROC]) for Candida score, CI, CCI, and CPR were 0.66, 0.67, 0.63, and 0.62, respectively. A large number of patients in the no-invasive candidiasis group (114 out of 181) were exposed to antifungal agents during their stay in ICU. Subgroup analysis was carried out after excluding such patients from no-invasive candidiasis group. AUROC of Candida score, CI, CCI, and CPR were 0.7, 0.7, 0.65, and 0.72, respectively, and positive predictive values (PPVs) were in the range of 25%–47%, along with negative predictive values (NPVs) in the range of 84%–96% in the subgroup analysis. Conclusion: Currently available risk prediction scores have good NPV but poor PPV. They are useful for selecting patients who are not likely to benefit from antifungal therapy. PMID:28904481

  19. The political spectacle phenomenon on the political scene of Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vučetić Vuk

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper will examine the phenomenon of political spectacle in BiH. Our goal is to recognize the structure of political spectacle in BiH political scene and point out the functions and objectives of this relatively new term in the media and the political sphere. In this regard, we have observed a political spectacle as a method of political communication of the rulers to the ruled. A very important element of the political spectacle is the media. With the media promotion of this method of political communication achieves its full capacity. The final outcome of the political spectacle is reflected in manipulating the public. In this way the politicians try to remain in power as long as they can.

  20. The institutional design, politics, and effects of a bioregional approach: observations and lessons from 11 case studies of river basin organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sander Meijerink

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available One of the prescriptions for adaptive comanagement of social-ecological systems is to follow a bioregional approach. In water resources management, experience has been gained with a bioregional approach by the foundation of river basin organizations (RBOs. Here, we summarize the results of a research project involving 27 colleagues who have undertaken an analysis of the global discussion on RBOs and the foundation of RBOs in Canada, USA, Great Britain, Germany, Portugal, South Africa, Ukraine, Afghanistan, Mongolia, Thailand, and Australia. Drawing on Ostrom's institutional analysis and development framework, we first present a fine-grained analysis of the institutional architecture of these RBOs, which enables us to distinguish between autonomous, coordinating, partnership, and agency type RBOs. Second, we unravel the main controversies over this architecture by focusing on the key actors involved in either promoting or hindering RBO formation, globally and at the national level. Third, we summarize how the performance of RBOs can be evaluated in terms of coordination, accountability, legitimacy, and environmental effectiveness. Finally, we discuss the relationship between institutional design and performance. The main findings are: (1 the foundation of RBOs is not a neutral process but rather a highly political one, (2 the foundation of RBOs creates complex accountability relationships, and (3 institutional interplay, the capacity to generate financial resources, and a minimum degree of institutional stability are crucial to the successes of RBOs in realizing coordination and environmental effectiveness.

  1. Political Dynamics Affected by Turncoats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Salvo, Rosa; Gorgone, Matteo; Oliveri, Francesco

    2017-11-01

    An operatorial theoretical model based on raising and lowering fermionic operators for the description of the dynamics of a political system consisting of macro-groups affected by turncoat-like behaviors is presented. The analysis of the party system dynamics is carried on by combining the action of a suitable quadratic Hamiltonian operator with specific rules (depending on the variations of the mean values of the observables) able to adjust periodically the conservative model to the political environment.

  2. Political Crowdfunding as concept of political technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeria GOLKA

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Political crowdfunding is analyzed as a new concept of political science. The justification of use of crowdfunding technologies not only in business but also in the political sphere is argued. The efficiency, availability, low cost of the new forms of political investment through the development of information and communication technologies are noted. The typology of political crowdfunding is proposed. Political projects promoting domestic crowdfunding platforms are analyzed. Attention is drawn to the problem of legal gaps in the regulation of crowdfunding is studied. The foreign experience of organizing public support (mikroinvestment political projects. It is emphasized that in terms of political theory crowdfunding is based on solidarity. The crowdfunding properties of transforming social capital accumulated by social networks into financial capital are mentioned.

  3. Examination of observed and predicted measures of creep cavitation damage accumulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brear, J.M.; Church, J.M. [ERA Technology Ltd., Leatherhead (United Kingdom); Eggeler, G. [University of Bochum-Ruhr (Germany)

    1998-12-31

    Brittle intergranular cavitation represents a primary degradation mechanism for high temperature plant operating within the creep range. Fundamental to formulating estimates of remanent life, or consumed life fraction for such components are: the observation and quantification of the level of actual creep cavitation, typically using an A-parameter type approach, and the correlation of observed creep damage accumulation with some phenomenological model which characterizes the rate of damage evolution and, thereby, rupture lifetime. The work described here treats inhomogeneous damage accumulation - in otherwise uniform material and loading situations. Extensions to the A-parameter are considered as a practical measure of damage localization and an extension of the Kachanov-Rabotnov continuum damage mechanics model is proposed to allow theoretical treatment. (orig.) 4 refs.

  4. Solar Ion Processing of Itokawa Grains: Reconciling Model Predictions with Sample Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christoffersen, Roy; Keller, L. P.

    2014-01-01

    Analytical TEM observations of Itokawa grains reported to date show complex solar wind ion processing effects in the outer 30-100 nm of pyroxene and olivine grains. The effects include loss of long-range structural order, formation of isolated interval cavities or "bubbles", and other nanoscale compositional/microstructural variations. None of the effects so far described have, however, included complete ion-induced amorphization. To link the array of observed relationships to grain surface exposure times, we have adapted our previous numerical model for progressive solar ion processing effects in lunar regolith grains to the Itokawa samples. The model uses SRIM ion collision damage and implantation calculations within a framework of a constant-deposited-energy model for amorphization. Inputs include experimentally-measured amorphization fluences, a Pi steradian variable ion incidence geometry required for a rotating asteroid, and a numerical flux-versus-velocity solar wind spectrum.

  5. Examination of observed and predicted measures of creep cavitation damage accumulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brear, J M; Church, J M [ERA Technology Ltd., Leatherhead (United Kingdom); Eggeler, G [University of Bochum-Ruhr (Germany)

    1999-12-31

    Brittle intergranular cavitation represents a primary degradation mechanism for high temperature plant operating within the creep range. Fundamental to formulating estimates of remanent life, or consumed life fraction for such components are: the observation and quantification of the level of actual creep cavitation, typically using an A-parameter type approach, and the correlation of observed creep damage accumulation with some phenomenological model which characterizes the rate of damage evolution and, thereby, rupture lifetime. The work described here treats inhomogeneous damage accumulation - in otherwise uniform material and loading situations. Extensions to the A-parameter are considered as a practical measure of damage localization and an extension of the Kachanov-Rabotnov continuum damage mechanics model is proposed to allow theoretical treatment. (orig.) 4 refs.

  6. The Lower Main Sequence of Stars in the Solar Neighborhood: Model Predictions Versus Observation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartašiūtė S.

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available We have used the Simbad database and VizieR catalogue access tools to construct the observational color-absolute magnitude diagrams of nearby K-M dwarfs with precise Hipparcos parallaxes (σπ/π ≤ 0:05. Particular attention has been paid to removing unresolved double/multiple stars and variables. In addition to archival data, we have made use of nearly 2000 new radial-velocity measurements of K-M dwarfs to identify spectroscopic binary candidates. The main sequences, cleaned from unresolved binaries, variable stars, and old population stars which can also widen the sequence due to their presumably lower metallicity, were compared to available solar-metallicity models. Significant offsets of most of the model main-sequence lines are seen with respect to observational data, especially for the lower-mass stars. Only the location and slope of the Victoria-Regina and, partly, BaSTI isochrones match the data quite well.

  7. Political Awakenings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Franziska Brühwiler

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Le Complot contre l’Amérique de Philip Roth décrit l’initiation politique de ses deux protagonistes, le narrateur Philip et son frère aîné, Sanford. Tandis que ce dernier passe par un processus initiatique quasi classique — il se déroule conformément au schéma tripartite de van Gennep — l’apogée de l’initiation de Philip est marquée par douleur et blessure. Toutefois, tous les deux connaissent seulement une initiation partielle, car le premier doit d’abord admettre ses erreurs tandis que le second va devoir apprendre, non seulement à remettre en cause l’autorité, mais également à développer ses idées de façon indépendante.Philip Roth’s The Plot Against America traces the political awakening of its two child protagonists, the narrator Philip and his elder brother Sanford. While the latter undergoes an initiation process nearly in accordance with the classical tripartite scheme as coined by van Gennep, the height of Philip’s initiation process is marked by physical pain and injury. However, both experience only a partial initiation, since the elder brother will have to recognize his errors and the younger one will first have to learn how to go beyond the mere questioning of authority.

  8. Observing preschoolers' social-emotional behavior: structure, foundations, and prediction of early school success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denham, Susanne A; Bassett, Hideko Hamada; Thayer, Sara K; Mincic, Melissa S; Sirotkin, Yana S; Zinsser, Katherine

    2012-01-01

    Social-emotional behavior of 352 3- and 4-year-olds attending private child-care and Head Start programs was observed using the Minnesota Preschool Affect Checklist, Revised (MPAC-R). Goals of the investigation included (a) using MPAC-R data to extract a shortened version, MPAC-R/S, comparing structure, internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and stability of both versions; and, using the shortened measure, to examine (b) age, gender, and risk status differences in social-emotional behaviors; (c) contributions of emotion knowledge and executive function to social-emotional behaviors; and (d) contributions of social-emotional behaviors to early school adjustment and kindergarten academic success. Results show that reliability of MPAC-R/S was as good, or better, than the MPAC-R. MPAC-R/S structure, at both times of observation, included emotionally negative/aggressive, emotionally regulated/prosocial, and emotionally positive/productive behaviors; MPAC-R structure was similar but less replicable over time. Age, gender, and risk differences were found. Children's emotion knowledge contributed to later emotionally regulated/prosocial behavior. Finally, preschool emotionally negative/aggressive behaviors were associated with concurrent and kindergarten school success, and there was evidence of social-emotional behavior mediating relations between emotion knowledge or executive function, and school outcomes. The importance of portable, empirically supported observation measures of social-emotional behaviors is discussed along with possible applications, teacher utilization, and implementation barriers.

  9. Observing the metal-poor solar neighbourhood: a comparison of galactic chemical evolution predictions*†

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishenina, T.; Pignatari, M.; Côté, B.; Thielemann, F.-K.; Soubiran, C.; Basak, N.; Gorbaneva, T.; Korotin, S. A.; Kovtyukh, V. V.; Wehmeyer, B.; Bisterzo, S.; Travaglio, C.; Gibson, B. K.; Jordan, C.; Paul, A.; Ritter, C.; Herwig, F.; NuGrid Collaboration

    2017-08-01

    Atmospheric parameters and chemical compositions for 10 stars with metallicities in the region of -2.2 LTE) and non-LTE (NLTE) approaches. In particular, differences by assuming LTE or NLTE are about 0.10 dex; depending on [Fe/H], Teff, gravity and element lines used in the analysis. We find that the O abundance has the largest error, ranging from 0.10 and 0.2 dex. The best measured elements are Cr, Fe, and Mn; with errors between 0.03 and 0.11 dex. The stars in our sample were included in previous different observational work. We provide a consistent data analysis. The data dispersion introduced in the literature by different techniques and assumptions used by the different authors is within the observational errors, excepting for HD103095. We compare these results with stellar observations from different data sets and a number of theoretical galactic chemical evolution (GCE) simulations. We find a large scatter in the GCE results, used to study the origin of the elements. Within this scatter as found in previous GCE simulations, we cannot reproduce the evolution of the elemental ratios [Sc/Fe], [Ti/Fe], and [V/Fe] at different metallicities. The stellar yields from core-collapse supernovae are likely primarily responsible for this discrepancy. Possible solutions and open problems are discussed.

  10. Signs of political economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernard Lamizet

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Like any political system, economy is a system of signs and representations. The Semiotics of economy elaborates its analytical methods to interpret such signs, which give meaning to the economy by representing its performances in public debate and in the media. Four major features distinguish the Semiotics of political economy from other semiotic forms or other systems of information and political representation. First of all, the relationship between the signification of the economy and the real or the imaginary phenomena to which they refer always pertains to the order of values. The second characteristic of economic signs is the significance of the state of lack they express. The third characteristic of signs of the economy is the form of sign production, which can be designated by the concept of emission of signs and their diffusion. Finally, as all signs, the economic sign is arbitrary. In the field of Economics, such arbitrariness does not imply that the Subject is free to superimpose whatever value to the signs themselves, but refers to the rupture between the world and its possible transformation. The very meaning of the word economy is here at stake. Oikos, in Greek (the term from which the word economy is derived refers to a known, familiar space. Economy transforms the real, natural world into a symbolic social world, into a world of relations with others whom we recognise and whose actions are relatively predictable. It might be useful to consider the contemporary issue of debt, its implications and its multiple meanings, which includes both the ethical and moral dimension of the condemnation of debt as well as the imaginary political dimension based on the expression of an idea of independence.

  11. Modelling a model?!! Prediction of observed and calculated daily pan evaporation in New Mexico, U.S.A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beriro, D. J.; Abrahart, R. J.; Nathanail, C. P.

    2012-04-01

    Data-driven modelling is most commonly used to develop predictive models that will simulate natural processes. This paper, in contrast, uses Gene Expression Programming (GEP) to construct two alternative models of different pan evaporation estimations by means of symbolic regression: a simulator, a model of a real-world process developed on observed records, and an emulator, an imitator of some other model developed on predicted outputs calculated by that source model. The solutions are compared and contrasted for the purposes of determining whether any substantial differences exist between either option. This analysis will address recent arguments over the impact of using downloaded hydrological modelling datasets originating from different initial sources i.e. observed or calculated. These differences can be easily be overlooked by modellers, resulting in a model of a model developed on estimations derived from deterministic empirical equations and producing exceptionally high goodness-of-fit. This paper uses different lines-of-evidence to evaluate model output and in so doing paves the way for a new protocol in machine learning applications. Transparent modelling tools such as symbolic regression offer huge potential for explaining stochastic processes, however, the basic tenets of data quality and recourse to first principles with regard to problem understanding should not be trivialised. GEP is found to be an effective tool for the prediction of observed and calculated pan evaporation, with results supported by an understanding of the records, and of the natural processes concerned, evaluated using one-at-a-time response function sensitivity analysis. The results show that both architectures and response functions are very similar, implying that previously observed differences in goodness-of-fit can be explained by whether models are applied to observed or calculated data.

  12. Effects of Political Knowledge on Political Tolerance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, John Powell

    2018-01-01

    Sexual orientation continues to be an explosive issue in American classrooms. Increasing the political knowledge of students can reduce the volatility of this explosive issue by increasing tolerance toward the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender community. This relationship between political knowledge and political tolerance has been…

  13. Factors predicting emotional cue-responding behaviors of nurses in Taiwan: An observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Mei-Feng; Lee, An-Yu; Chou, Cheng-Chen; Liu, Tien-Yu; Tang, Chia-Chun

    2017-10-01

    Responding to emotional cues is an essential element of therapeutic communication. The purpose of this study is to examine nurses' competence of responding to emotional cues (CRE) and related factors while interacting with standardized patients with cancer. This is an exploratory and predictive correlational study. A convenience sample of registered nurses who have passed the probationary period in southern Taiwan was recruited to participate in 15-minute videotaped interviews with standardized patients. The Medical Interview Aural Rating Scale was used to describe standardized patients' emotional cues and to measure nurses' CRE. The State-Trait Anxiety Inventory was used to evaluate nurses' anxiety level before the conversation. We used descriptive statistics to describe the data and stepwise regression to examine the predictors of nurses' CRE. A total of 110 nurses participated in the study. Regardless of the emotional cue level, participants predominately responded to cues with inappropriate distancing strategies. Prior formal communication training, practice unit, length of nursing practice, and educational level together explain 36.3% variances of the nurses' CRE. This study is the first to explore factors related to Taiwanese nurses' CRE. Compared to nurses in other countries, Taiwanese nurses tended to respond to patients' emotional cues with more inappropriate strategies. We also identified significant predictors of CRE that show the importance of communication training. Future research and education programs are needed to enhance nurses' CRE and to advocate for emotion-focused communication. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Prediction of Wound Healing in Diabetic Foot Ulcers: an Observational Study in Tertiary Hospital in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pradana Soewondo

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim: to evaluate the role of clinical characteristics, functional markers of vasodilation, inflammatory response, and atherosclerosis in predicting wound healing in diabetic foot ulcer. Methods: a cohort study (February – October 2010 was conducted from 40 subjects with acute diabetic foot ulcer at clinical ward of Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo National Central General Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia. Each subject underwent at least two variable measurements, i.e. during inflammatory phase and proliferation phase. The studied variables were clinical characteristics, complete peripheral blood count (CBC and differential count, levels of HbA1c, ureum, creatinine, lipid profile, fasting blood glucose (FBG, marker of endothelial dysfunction (asymmetric dimethylarginine/ADMA, endothelin-1/ET-1, and flow-mediated dilation/FMD of brachial artery, and marker of vascular calcification (osteoprotegerin/OPG. Results: median of time achieving 50% granulation tissue in our study was 21 days. There were nine factors that contribute in the development of 50% granulation tissue, i.e. family history of diabetes mellitus (DM, previous history of wound, wound area, duration of existing wound, captopril and simvastatin medications, levels of ADMA, ET-1, and OPG. There were three out of the nine factors that significantly correlated with wound healing, i.e. wound area, OPG levels, and simvastatin medications. Conclusion: in acute diabetic foot ulcers, wound area and OPG levels had positive correlation with wound healing, whereas simvastatin medications had negative correlation with wound healing.

  15. Prediction of Wound Healing in Diabetic Foot Ulcers: an Observational Study in Tertiary Hospital in Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soewondo, Pradana; Suyono, Slamet; Sastrosuwignyo, Mpu Kanoko; Harahap, Alida R; Sutrisna, Bambang; Makmun, Lukman H

    2017-01-01

    to evaluate the role of clinical characteristics, functional markers of vasodilation, inflammatory response, and atherosclerosis in predicting wound healing in diabetic foot ulcer. a cohort study (February - October 2010) was conducted from 40 subjects with acute diabetic foot ulcer at clinical ward of Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo National Central General Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia. Each subject underwent at least two variable measurements, i.e. during inflammatory phase and proliferation phase. The studied variables were clinical characteristics, complete peripheral blood count (CBC) and differential count, levels of HbA1c, ureum, creatinine, lipid profile, fasting blood glucose (FBG), marker of endothelial dysfunction (asymmetric dimethylarginine/ADMA, endothelin-1/ET-1, and flow-mediated dilation/FMD of brachial artery), and marker of vascular calcification (osteoprotegerin/OPG). median of time achieving 50% granulation tissue in our study was 21 days. There were nine factors that contribute in the development of 50% granulation tissue, i.e. family history of diabetes mellitus (DM), previous history of wound, wound area, duration of existing wound, captopril and simvastatin medications, levels of ADMA, ET-1, and OPG. There were three out of the nine factors that significantly correlated with wound healing, i.e. wound area, OPG levels, and simvastatin medications. in acute diabetic foot ulcers, wound area and OPG levels had positive correlation with wound healing, whereas simvastatin medications had negative correlation with wound healing.

  16. Real-Time Prediction of Observed Action Requires Integrity of the Dorsal Premotor Cortex: Evidence From Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brich, Louisa F M; Bächle, Christine; Hermsdörfer, Joachim; Stadler, Waltraud

    2018-01-01

    Studying brain mechanisms underlying the prediction of observed action, the dorsal premotor cortex (PMd) has been suggested a key area. The present study probed this notion using repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) to test whether interference in this area would affect the accuracy in predicting the time course of object directed actions performed with the right hand. Young and healthy participants observed actions in short videos. These were briefly occluded from view for 600 ms and resumed immediately afterwards. The task was to continue the action mentally and to indicate after each occlusion, whether the action was resumed at the right moment (condition in-time) or shifted. In a first run, single-pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation (sTMS) was delivered over the left primary hand-area during occlusion. In the second run, rTMS over the left PMd was applied during occlusion in half of the participants [experimental group (EG)]. The control group (CG) received sham-rTMS over the same area. Under rTMS, the EG predicted less trials correctly than in the sTMS run. Sham-rTMS in the CG had no effects on prediction. The interference in PMd interacted with the type of manipulation applied to the action's time course occasionally during occlusion. The performance decrease of the EG was most pronounced in conditions in which the continuations after occlusions were too late in the action's course. The present results extend earlier findings suggesting that real-time action prediction requires the integrity of the PMd. Different functional roles of this area are discussed. Alternative interpretations consider either simulation of specific motor programming functions or the involvement of a feature-unspecific predictor.

  17. Real-Time Prediction of Observed Action Requires Integrity of the Dorsal Premotor Cortex: Evidence From Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louisa F. M. Brich

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Studying brain mechanisms underlying the prediction of observed action, the dorsal premotor cortex (PMd has been suggested a key area. The present study probed this notion using repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS to test whether interference in this area would affect the accuracy in predicting the time course of object directed actions performed with the right hand. Young and healthy participants observed actions in short videos. These were briefly occluded from view for 600 ms and resumed immediately afterwards. The task was to continue the action mentally and to indicate after each occlusion, whether the action was resumed at the right moment (condition in-time or shifted. In a first run, single-pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation (sTMS was delivered over the left primary hand-area during occlusion. In the second run, rTMS over the left PMd was applied during occlusion in half of the participants [experimental group (EG]. The control group (CG received sham-rTMS over the same area. Under rTMS, the EG predicted less trials correctly than in the sTMS run. Sham-rTMS in the CG had no effects on prediction. The interference in PMd interacted with the type of manipulation applied to the action’s time course occasionally during occlusion. The performance decrease of the EG was most pronounced in conditions in which the continuations after occlusions were too late in the action’s course. The present results extend earlier findings suggesting that real-time action prediction requires the integrity of the PMd. Different functional roles of this area are discussed. Alternative interpretations consider either simulation of specific motor programming functions or the involvement of a feature-unspecific predictor.

  18. Hidden consequences of political efficacy: Testing an efficacy-apathy model of political mobilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osborne, Danny; Yogeeswaran, Kumar; Sibley, Chris G

    2015-10-01

    Political efficacy-the belief that one can influence politics-is a key predictor of people's involvement in social movements. Political institutions that are open to change should, however, be seen as just. Thus, political efficacy may ironically undermine minority group members' support for collective action by simultaneously increasing their belief in the fairness of the system. The current study aims to examine this possibility in a national sample of Māori-New Zealand's indigenous minority population. Participants (N = 399) were Māori (Mage = 44.22; SD = 13.30) women (n = 272) and men (n = 115; unreported = 12) who completed a survey assessing their levels of (a) political efficacy, (b) system justification, and (c) support for the political mobilization of their group, as well as relevant demographic covariates. Consistent with past research, political efficacy had a positive direct effect on participants' support for the political mobilization of Māori. Nevertheless, political efficacy also had a negative indirect effect on political mobilization support via increases in system justification. These results held after controlling for participants' ethnic identification, self-efficacy, and conservatism. Our findings uncover a hidden consequence of political efficacy and show that, while believing that the political system is receptive to change predicts political mobilization, it can also undermine minorities' support for the mobilization of their group. Thus, our results uncover a previously unknown process that maintains inequality between ethnic minority and majority group members. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  19. About green political parties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orlović Slobodan P.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work the author refers to some legal and political questions in connection with green political parties. Those questions cover: the ideology of green political parties, their number and influence, both in general and in Serbia. The first part of work is generally speaking about political parties - their definition, ideology, role and action. Main thesis in this work is that green political parties, by their appearance, were something new on the political scene. But quickly, because of objective and subjective reasons, they were changing original ideas and were beginning to resemble to all other political parties. In this way, they lost their vanguard and political alternativeness.

  20. Prediction of SEP Peak Proton Intensity Based on CME Speed, Direction and Observations of Associated Solar Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, I. G.; Mays, M. L.; Thompson, B. J.; Kwon, R.; Frechette, B. P.

    2017-12-01

    We assess whether a formula obtained by Richardson et al. (Solar Phys., 289, 3059, 2014; DOI 10.1007/s11207-014-0524-8) relating the intensity of 14-24 MeV protons in a solar energetic particle event at 1 AU to the solar event location and the speed of the associated coronal mass ejection (CME), may be used to "predict" the intensity of a solar energetic particle event. Starting with a subset of several hundred CMEs in the CCMC/SWRC DONKI real-time database (http://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/) selected without consideration of whether they were associated with SEP events, we first use the CME speed and direction to predict the proton intensity at Earth or the STEREO spacecraft using this formula. Since most of these CMEs were not in fact associated with SEP events, many "false alarms" result. We then examine whether considering other phenomena which may accompany the CMEs, such as the X-ray flare intensity and the properties of type II and type III radio emissions, may help to reduce the false alarm rate. We also use CME parameters calculated from an ellipsoidal shell fit to multi-spacecraft CME shock observations for a smaller number of events to predict the SEP intensity. We calculate skill scores for each case and assess whether the Richardson et al. (2014) formula, using additional observations to reduce the false alarm rate, has any potential as a SEP prediction tool, assuming that the required observations could be acquired sufficiently rapidly following the onset of the related solar event/CME.

  1. STEADY STATE DUST DISTRIBUTIONS IN DISK VORTICES: OBSERVATIONAL PREDICTIONS AND APPLICATIONS TO TRANSITIONAL DISKS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyra, Wladimir; Lin, Min-Kai

    2013-01-01

    The Atacama Large Millimeter Array has returned images of transitional disks in which large asymmetries are seen in the distribution of millimeter sized dust in the outer disk. The explanation in vogue borrows from the vortex literature and suggests that these asymmetries are the result of dust trapping in giant vortices, excited via Rossby wave instabilities at planetary gap edges. Due to the drag force, dust trapped in vortices will accumulate in the center and diffusion is needed to maintain a steady state over the lifetime of the disk. While previous work derived semi-analytical models of the process, in this paper we provide analytical steady-steady solutions. Exact solutions exist for certain vortex models. The solution is determined by the vortex rotation profile, the gas scale height, the vortex aspect ratio, and the ratio of dust diffusion to gas-dust friction. In principle, all of these quantities can be derived from observations, which would validate the model and also provide constrains on the strength of the turbulence inside the vortex core. Based on our solution, we derive quantities such as the gas-dust contrast, the trapped dust mass, and the dust contrast at the same orbital location. We apply our model to the recently imaged Oph IRS 48 system, finding values within the range of the observational uncertainties

  2. Comparing the predictive capacity of observed in-session resistance to self-reported motivation in cognitive behavioral therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westra, Henny A

    2011-02-01

    Self-report measures of motivation for changing anxiety have been weakly and inconsistently related to outcome in cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT). While clients may not be able to accurately report their motivation, ambivalence about change may nonetheless be expressed in actual therapy sessions as opposition to the direction set by the therapist (i.e., resistance). In the context of CBT for generalized anxiety disorder, the present study compared the ability of observed in-session resistance in CBT session 1 and two self-report measures of motivation for changing anxiety (the Change Questionnaire & the Client Motivational for Therapy Scale) to (1) predict client and therapist rated homework compliance (2) predict post-CBT and one-year post-treatment worry reduction, and (3) differentiate those who received motivational interviewing prior to CBT from those who received no pre-treatment. Observed in-session resistance performed very well on each index, compared to the performance of self-reported motivation which was inconsistent and weaker relative to observed resistance. These findings strongly support both clinician sensitivity to moments of client resistance in actual therapy sessions as early as session 1, and the inclusion of observational process measures in CBT research. Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Estimating the state of a geophysical system with sparse observations: time delay methods to achieve accurate initial states for prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Zhe; Rey, Daniel; Ye, Jingxin; Abarbanel, Henry D. I.

    2017-01-01

    The problem of forecasting the behavior of a complex dynamical system through analysis of observational time-series data becomes difficult when the system expresses chaotic behavior and the measurements are sparse, in both space and/or time. Despite the fact that this situation is quite typical across many fields, including numerical weather prediction, the issue of whether the available observations are "sufficient" for generating successful forecasts is still not well understood. An analysis by Whartenby et al. (2013) found that in the context of the nonlinear shallow water equations on a β plane, standard nudging techniques require observing approximately 70 % of the full set of state variables. Here we examine the same system using a method introduced by Rey et al. (2014a), which generalizes standard nudging methods to utilize time delayed measurements. We show that in certain circumstances, it provides a sizable reduction in the number of observations required to construct accurate estimates and high-quality predictions. In particular, we find that this estimate of 70 % can be reduced to about 33 % using time delays, and even further if Lagrangian drifter locations are also used as measurements.

  4. Speak up! Oral Examinations and Political Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buehler, Melissa J.; Schneider, Laura U.

    2009-01-01

    Testing assessments of undergraduate political science students is predictable and stagnant. A missing, yet valuable, testing assessment tool that can contribute to the repertoire of political science is the oral examination. Borrowing this testing tool largely from foreign language departments, oral exams require students to "think on their…

  5. An Observational Approach toward Understanding and Prediction of CME Magnetic Ejecta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzo, V. J.; de Koning, C. A.; Riley, P.

    2017-12-01

    Quantitative knowledge of the magnetic field inside a coronal mass ejection (CME) is an important contributor to an actionable space weather forecast of geomagnetic storms. However, at present it is not possible to predict the magnetic cloud component of a CME with any accuracy. This has led to the development of increasingly sophisticated physics-based models, each promising a path toward more accurate space weather forecasts. Unfortunately, none of these models can provide meaningful output if they lack for reliable quantitative input. Until we can measure magnetic fields at solar distances where CMEs are launched and over their early-stage evolution, this will remain a fundamental obstacle to successful modeling. Instead of continuing to focus primarily on the modeling approach, we suggest an active investigation of direct, up-stream measurement of the CME internal magnetic field. For current forecasting purposes, or even as a science concept mission, the measurements do not need to be of high accuracy or high cadence. Since previous magnetic cloud analyses have demonstrated that a single spacecraft provides insufficient data to robustly reconstruct the CME internal magnetic field, we suggest deploying a swarm of cube-sats in "quasi-satellite" orbits that are known to be horizontally and vertically stable, even at large (several tenths of an AU) distances from Earth. In this presentation, we describe how simulations of CMEs incorporating magnetic clouds can be used to develop and support this mission concept. By taking simulated cuts through model CMEs with a range of magnetic morphologies and field strengths, we aim to determine the minimum number of spacecraft needed for such a mission and their optimum orbital characteristics. Although a host of challenges remain, especially related to communications and cube-sat telemetry in interplanetary space, we believe that these technological issues can be surmounted once it has been demonstrated that a major leap in

  6. Evaporation suppression from water reservoirs using floating covers: Lab scale observations and model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Or, D.; Lehmann, P.; Aminzadeh, M.; Sommer, M.; Wey, H.; Wunderli, H.; Breitenstein, D.

    2016-12-01

    The competition over dwindling fresh water resources is expected to intensify with projected increase in human population in arid regions, expansion of irrigated land and changes in climate and drought patterns. The volume of water stored in reservoirs would also increase to mitigate seasonal shortages due to rainfall variability and to meet irrigation water needs. By some estimates up to half of the stored water is lost to evaporation thereby exacerbating the water scarcity problem. Recently, there is an upsurge in the use of self-assembling floating covers to suppress evaporation, yet the design, and implementation remain largely empirical. Studies have shown that evaporation suppression is highly nonlinear, as also known from a century of research on gas exchange from plant leaves (that often evaporate as free water surfaces through stomata that are only 1% of leaf area). We report a systematic evaluation of different cover types and external drivers (radiation, wind, wind+radiation) on evaporation suppression and energy balance of a 1.4 m2 basin placed in a wind-tunnel. Surprisingly, evaporation suppression by black and white floating covers (balls and plates) were similar despite significantly different energy balance regimes over the cover surfaces. Moreover, the evaporation suppression efficiency was a simple function of the uncovered area (square root of the uncovered fraction) with linear relations with the covered area in some cases. The thermally decoupled floating covers offer an efficient solution to the evaporation suppression with limited influence of the surface energy balance (water temperature for black and white covers was similar and remained nearly constant). The results will be linked with a predictive evaporation-energy balance model and issues of spatial scales and long exposure times will be studied.

  7. Improving biomass burning pollution predictions in Singapore using AERONET and Lidar observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardacre, Catherine; Chew, Boon Ning; Gan, Christopher; Burgin, Laura; Hort, Matthew; Lee, Shao Yi; Shaw, Felicia; Witham, Claire

    2016-04-01

    Every year millions of people are affected by poor air quality from trans-boundary smoke haze emitted from large scale biomass burning in Asia. These fires are a particular problem in the Indonesian regions of Sumatra and Kalimantan where peat fires, lit to clear land for oil palm plantations and agriculture, typically result in high levels of particulate matter (PM) emissions. In June 2013 and from August-October 2015 the combination of widespread burning, meteorological and climatological conditions resulted in severe air pollution throughout Southeast Asia. The Met Office of the United Kingdom (UKMO) and the Hazard and Risk Impact Assessment Unit of the Meteorological Service of Singapore (MSS) have developed a quantitative haze forecast to provide a reliable, routine warning of haze events in the Singapore region. The forecast system uses the UKMO's Lagrangian particle dispersion model NAME (Numerical Atmosphere-dispersion Modelling Environment) in combination with high resolution, satellite based emission data from the Global Fire Emissions System (GFAS). The buoyancy of biomass burning smoke and it's rise through the atmosphere has a large impact on the amount of air pollution at the Earth's surface. This is important in Singapore, which is affected by pollution that has travelled long distances and that will have a vertical distribution influenced by meteorology. The vertical distribution of atmospheric aerosol can be observed by Lidar which provides information about haze plume structure. NAME output from two severe haze periods that occurred in June 2013 and from August-October 2015 was compared with observations of total column aerosol optical depth (AOD) from AERONET stations in Singapore and the surrounding region, as well as vertically resolved Lidar data from a station maintained by MSS and from MPLNET. Comparing total column and vertically resolved AOD observations with NAME output indicates that the model underestimates PM concentrations throughout

  8. Investigation on the real-time prediction of ground motions using seismic records observed in deep boreholes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyakoshi, H.; Tsuno, S.

    2013-12-01

    The present method of the EEW system installed in the railway field of Japan predicts seismic ground motions based on the estimated earthquake information about epicentral distances and magnitudes using initial P-waves observed on the surface. In the case of local earthquakes beneath the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, however, a method to directly predict seismic ground motions using P-waves observed in deep boreholes could issue EEWs more simply and surely. Besides, a method to predict seismic ground motions, using S-waves observed in deep boreholes and S-wave velocity structures beneath seismic stations, could show planar distributions of ground motions for train operation control areas in the aftermath of earthquakes. This information is available to decide areas in which the emergency inspection of railway structures should be performed. To develop those two methods, we investigated relationships between peak amplitudes on the surface and those in deep boreholes, using seismic records of KiK-net stations in the Kanto Basin. In this study, we used earthquake accelerograms observed in boreholes whose depths are deeper than the top face of Pre-Neogene basement and those on the surface at 12 seismic stations of KiK-net. We selected 243 local earthquakes whose epicenters are located around the Kanto Region. Those JMA magnitudes are in the range from 4.5 to 7.0. We picked the on-set of P-waves and S-waves using a vertical component and two horizontal components, respectively. Peak amplitudes of P-waves and S-waves were obtained using vertical components and vector sums of two horizontal components, respectively. We estimated parameters which represent site amplification factors beneath seismic stations, using peak amplitudes of S-waves observed in the deep borehole and those on the surface, to minimize the residuals between calculations by the theoretical equation and observations. Correlation coefficients between calculations and observations are high values in the range

  9. Politics Backstage - Television Documentaries, Politics and Politicians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ib Bondebjerg

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with "the transformation of visibility" in political discourse on and representation of politics and politicians in resent Dansih television documentaries. Drawing on the theories of Habermas, Meyrowitz and John B. Thompson, it is argued that the political persona on television is moved closer to the individual citizen, creating a sort "mediated quasi-inter- action" giving mediated communication a stronger element of face-to-face interaction. Together with the more pervasive "live" coverage of politics and politicians, this expands media coverage to both the backstage of political processes and the private and personal backstage of politicians, changing the form of democracy and public debate.

  10. The Inverse Contagion Problem (ICP) vs.. Predicting site contagion in real time, when network links are not observable

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mushkin, I.; Solomon, S.

    2017-10-01

    We study the inverse contagion problem (ICP). As opposed to the direct contagion problem, in which the network structure is known and the question is when each node will be contaminated, in the inverse problem the links of the network are unknown but a sequence of contagion histories (the times when each node was contaminated) is observed. We consider two versions of the ICP: The strong problem (SICP), which is the reconstruction of the network and has been studied before, and the weak problem (WICP), which requires "only" the prediction (at each time step) of the nodes that will be contaminated at the next time step (this is often the real life situation in which a contagion is observed and predictions are made in real time). Moreover, our focus is on analyzing the increasing accuracy of the solution, as a function of the number of contagion histories already observed. For simplicity, we discuss the simplest (deterministic and synchronous) contagion dynamics and the simplest solution algorithm, which we have applied to different network types. The main result of this paper is that the complex problem of the convergence of the ICP for a network can be reduced to an individual property of pairs of nodes: the "false link difficulty". By definition, given a pair of unlinked nodes i and j, the difficulty of the false link (i,j) is the probability that in a random contagion history, the nodes i and j are not contaminated at the same time step (or at consecutive time steps). In other words, the "false link difficulty" of a non-existing network link is the probability that the observations during a random contagion history would not rule out that link. This probability is relatively straightforward to calculate, and in most instances relies only on the relative positions of the two nodes (i,j) and not on the entire network structure. We have observed the distribution of false link difficulty for various network types, estimated it theoretically and confronted it

  11. Prediction of TARANIS Observations of TGF's and Optical Emissions from Red Sprites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, M. A.

    2006-12-01

    TARANIS (Tool for the Analysis of Radiation from Lightning and Sprites) is a French (CNES, Centre National D'Etudes Spatiales) micro-satellite that is scheduled for launch in 2009. This will be the first satellite that will measure coincident gamma-rays and optical emissions from atmospheric discharges. These measurements will provide important clues concerning the physics of discharges that produce gamma-rays and will provide more definitive evidence of the role of conventional breakdown versus runaway breakdown than is currently available. While a variety of discharges may be associated with Transient Gamma Ray Flashes (TGF's), this study will focus on emissions expected from red sprites. Future studies will focus on other types of discharges (for example, gigantic jets or blue jets) to see whether they should produce detectable signal levels at both gamma-ray and optical frequencies. The source of terrestrial TGF's is a matter of debate at this time. Many experts in the field have interpreted the data associated with the RHESSI (Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager) satellite to be indicative that the discharges associated with terrestrial gamma-rays are not associated with sprites. However, RHESSI was not designed for the purpose of collecting gamma-ray measurements from terrestrial discharges; does not possess a coincident optical measurement capability; and must average data over many events to predict a spectrum. We will present a statistical analysis of the relative efficiencies of the RHESSI and TARANIS satellite designs for the detection of TGF's associated with sprites. We will show results from a fully 2-D electromagnetic model (UNIMAX, the Unified Maxwell code) and an optical model (POEM, the Physics Based Optical Emission Model) to demonstrate the level of agreement between the simulations and the gamma-ray spectrum measurements and optical measurements (camera, photometer, and spectral measurements) for several different classes of

  12. NASA's Earth Observing System: The Transition from Climate Monitoring to Climate Change Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Michael D.; Herring, David D.

    1998-01-01

    Earth's 4.5 billion year history is a study in change. Natural geological forces have been rearranging the surface features and climatic conditions of our planet since its beginning. There is scientific evidence that some of these natural changes have not only led to mass extinctions of species (e.g., dinosaurs), but have also severely impacted human civilizations. For instance, there is evidence that a relatively sudden climate change caused a 300-year drought that contributed to the downfall of Akkadia, one of the most powerful empires in the Middle-East region around 2200 BC. More recently, the "little ice age" from 1200-1400 AD forced the Vikings to abandon Greenland when temperatures there dropped by about 1.5 C, rendering it too difficult to grow enough crops to sustain the population. Today, there is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have attained the magnitude of a geological force and are speeding up the rate of global change. For example, carbon dioxide levels have risen 30 percent since the industrial revolution and about 40 percent of the world's land surface has been transformed by humans. We don't understand the cause-and-effect relationships among Earth's land, ocean, and atmosphere well enough to predict what, if any, impacts these rapid changes will have on future climate conditions. We need to make many measurements all over the world, over a long period of time, in order to assemble the information needed to construct accurate computer models that will enable us to forecast climate change. In 1988, the Earth System Sciences Committee, sponsored by NASA, issued a report calling for an integrated, long-term strategy for measuring the vital signs of Earth's climate system. The report urged that the measurements must all be intimately coupled with focused process studies, they must facilitate development of Earth system models, and they must be stored in an information system that ensures open access to consistent, long-term data

  13. Defining Political Marketing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ormrod, Robert P.

    ’ and ‘narrow’ interpretations of political marketing, the nature of the political marketing exchange, political relationship marketing and how one can integrate the stakeholder concept into an understanding of political marketing. Finally, we propose a definition of political marketing that differs from......The aim of this working paper is to develop a definition of political marketing that builds on the political rather than commercial marketing literature. This aim is motivated by the need to make explicit our understanding of what political marketing is, a necessary exercise when discussing theory......, concepts and empirical methods in political marketing. We first present five existing definitions of political marketing that have been selected to represent advances in research from the origins of academic research into political marketing in the mid-1970’s to the present day. After this we discuss ‘wide...

  14. Oxidative Capacity Predicted Using Photochemical Age Approximation from SAMBBA Airborne Observations in the Amazon Rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    dos Santos, F. C.; Longo, K.; Guenther, A. B.; Freitas, S. R.; Moreira, D. S.; Flávio, L.; Braz, R.; Oram, D.; Lee, J. D.; Bauguitte, S.

    2016-12-01

    Emitted by vegetation, isoprene (2-methyl-1,3-butadiene) is the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbons, with an annual global emission calculated ranging from 440 to 660Tg carbon, depending on the driving variables like temperature, solar radiation, leaf area index and plant functional type. It is estimated, for example, that the natural compounds like isoprene and terpenes present in the troposphere are about 90% and 50%, respectively, removed from the atmosphere by oxidation performed by hydroxyl radical (OH). Furthermore, the oxidation products of isoprene may contribute to secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation, affecting the climate and altering the properties and lifetimes of clouds. Considering the importance of these emissions and the hydroxyl radical reaction in the atmosphere, the SAMBBA (South American Biomass Burning Analysis) experiment, which occurred during the dry season (September 2012) in the Amazon Rainforest, provided information about the chemical composition of the atmosphere through airborne observations. Although primarily focused on biomass burning flights, the SAMBBA project carried out other flights providing indirect oxidative capacity data in different environments: natural emission dominated flights and biomass-burning flights with fresh plumes and aged plumes. In this study, we evaluate the oxidative capacity of the Amazon rainforest in different environments, both for the unpolluted and biomass-burning disturbed atmosphere using the ratio [MVK + MACR]/[Isoprene]. Beyond that, we propose an improvement on the formulation of indirect OH density calculation, using the photochemical aging [O3]/[CO] as a parameter. During the day (11am-8pm - local time), the [OH] values for natural emission flights (8.1 x 106 molecules/cm3) and biomass-burning (9.4 x 106 molecules/cm3) are comparable with GABRIEL-2015 field campaign along Guyanas tropical rainforest and suggest that biomass-burning increase the oxidative capacity around 18% in average

  15. The ICAP Active Learning Framework Predicts the Learning Gains Observed in Intensely Active Classroom Experiences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin L. Wiggins

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available STEM classrooms (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics in postsecondary education are rapidly improved by the proper use of active learning techniques. These techniques occupy a descriptive spectrum that transcends passive teaching toward active, constructive, and, finally, interactive methods. While aspects of this framework have been examined, no large-scale or actual classroom-based data exist to inform postsecondary education STEM instructors about possible learning gains. We describe the results of a quasi-experimental study to test the apex of the ICAP framework (interactive, constructive, active, and passive in this ecological classroom environment. Students in interactive classrooms demonstrate significantly improved learning outcomes relative to students in constructive classrooms. This improvement in learning is relatively subtle; similar experimental designs without repeated measures would be unlikely to have the power to observe this significance. We discuss the importance of seemingly small learning gains that might propagate throughout a course or departmental curriculum, as well as improvements with the necessity for faculty to develop and implement similar activities.

  16. Accuracy of Single Frequency GPS Observations Processing In Near Real-time With Use of Code Predicted Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielgosz, P. A.

    In this year, the system of active geodetic GPS permanent stations is going to be estab- lished in Poland. This system should provide GPS observations for a wide spectrum of users, especially it will be a great opportunity for surveyors. Many of surveyors still use cheaper, single frequency receivers. This paper focuses on processing of single frequency GPS observations only. During processing of such observations the iono- sphere plays an important role, so we concentrated on the influence of the ionosphere on the positional coordinates. Twenty consecutive days of GPS data from 2001 year were processed to analyze the accuracy of a derived three-dimensional relative vec- tor position between GPS stations. Observations from two Polish EPN/IGS stations: BOGO and JOZE were used. In addition to, a new test station - IGIK was created. In this paper, the results of single frequency GPS observations processing in near real- time are presented. Baselines of 15, 27 and 42 kilometers and sessions of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 6 hours long were processed. While processing we used CODE (Centre for Orbit De- termination in Europe, Bern, Switzerland) predicted products: orbits and ionosphere info. These products are available in real-time and enable near real-time processing. Software Bernese v. 4.2 for Linux and BPE (Bernese Processing Engine) mode were used. These results are shown with a reference to dual frequency weekly solution (the best solution). Obtained GPS positional time and GPS baseline length dependency accuracy is presented for single frequency GPS observations.

  17. Poor nutritional status on admission predicts poor outcomes after stroke: observational data from the FOOD trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-06-01

    Previous studies suggest that undernourished patients with acute stroke do badly. The data, however, are not robust. We aimed to reliably assess the importance of baseline nutritional status as an independent predictor of long-term outcome after stroke in a large prospective cohort enrolled in the Feed Or Ordinary Diet (FOOD) trial, a multicenter randomized trial evaluating various feeding policies. Patients admitted to hospital with a recent stroke were enrolled in the FOOD trial. Data on nutritional status and other clinical predictors of outcome were collected at trial entry. At 6 months, the coordinating center collected data on survival and functional status (modified Rankin Scale). Outcome assessment was done by researchers blinded to baseline assessments and treatment allocation. Between November 1996 and November 2001, 3012 patients were enrolled, and 2955 (98%) were followed up. Of the 275 undernourished patients, 102 (37%) were dead by final follow-up compared with only 445 (20%) of 2194 patients of normal nutritional status (odds ratio [OR], 2.32; 95% CI, 1.78 to 3.02). After adjustment for age, prestroke functional state, and stroke severity, this relationship, although weakened, still held (OR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.34 to 2.47). Undernourished patients were more likely to develop pneumonia, other infections, and gastrointestinal bleeding during their hospital admission than other patients. These data provide reliable evidence that nutritional status early after stroke is independently associated with long-term outcome. It supports the rationale for the FOOD trial, which continues to recruit and aims to estimate the effect of different feeding regimes on outcome after stroke and thus determine whether the association observed in this study is likely to be causal.

  18. Lower thermosphere coupling study: Comparison of observations with predictions of the University College London-Sheffield thermosphere-ionosphere model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuller-Rowell, T.J.; Rees, D.; Parish, H.F.; Virdi, T.S.; Williams, P.J.S.; Johnson, R.M.

    1991-01-01

    During the first Lower Thermosphere Coupling Study (LTCS), September 21-25 1987, data were recorded from the incoherent scatter radar sites at EISCAT, Millstone Hill, Sondrestrom, and Arecibo. These experimental facilities measured ionospheric parameters (Ne, Te, Ti, and plasma velocity) in the E and the F regions which have been used to determine the E region neutral wind and infer the neutral temperature in the height range 100-150 km. Propagating tides are clearly visible in some of the parameters, and the latitude structure and phase variations with height indicate the presence of at least the (2,2) and (2,4) global tidal Hough modes. The influence of geomagnetic forcing is also clearly present at high latitudes. The University College London-Sheffield University three-dimensional coupled thermosphere-ionosphere model has been used to simulate this period of observation, by imposing tidal forcing at the lower boundary and magnetospheric forcing at high latitudes, in an attempt to interpret and understand the experimental data. Model simulations are able to predict where the signature of a particular tidal mode is likely to be observed in the respective responses of the temperature and wind structure. The numerical simulations predict the range of observed tidal amplitudes at mid and high latitudes, provided the tidal forcing functions imposed near the lower boundary of the model are larger (400 m geopotential height variation) than those inferred from linear tidal models

  19. Development of Lightning Observation Network in the Western Pacific Region for the Intensity Prediction of Severe Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, M.; Takahashi, Y.; Yamashita, K.; Kubota, H.; Hamada, J. I.; Momota, E.; Marciano, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    Lightning activity represents the thunderstorm activity, that is, the precipitation and/or updraft intensity and area. Thunderstorm activity is also an important parameter in terms of the energy inputs from the ocean to the atmosphere inside tropical cyclone, which is one of severe weather events. Recent studies suggest that it is possible to predict the maximum wind velocity and minimum pressure near the center of the tropical cyclone by one or two days before if we monitor the lightning activities in the tropical cyclone. Many countries in the western Pacific region suffer from the attack of tropical cyclone (typhoon) and have a strong demand to predict the intensity development of typhoons. Thus, we started developing a new lightning observation system and installing the observation system at Guam, Palau, and Manila in the Philippines from this summer. The lightning observation system consists of a VLF sensor detecting lightning-excited electromagnetic waves in the frequency range of 1-5 kHz, an automatic data-processing unit, solar panels, and batteries. Lightning-excited pulse signals detected by the VLF sensor are automatically analyzed by the data-processing unit, and only the extracted information of the trigger time and pulse amplitude is transmitted to a data server via the 3G data communications. In addition, we are now developing an upgraded lightning and weather observation system, which will be installed at 50 automated weather stations in Metro Manila and 10 radar sites in the Philippines under the 5-year project (SATREPS) scheme. At the presentation, we will show the initial results derived from the lightning observation system in detail and will show the detailed future plan of the SATREPS project.

  20. Exploring Political Alternatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denhardt, Robert B.

    1975-01-01

    The author distinguishes between the concepts of political socialization and political education. He argues that political socialization has come to dominate both our thinking and our teaching in the area of civic education. Suggestions for promoting political education are included. (DE)

  1. Language and Politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chimombo, Moira

    1999-01-01

    Surveys the interrelationship between language and politics. Touches on the context of political discourse, or political culture and ideology in new and old democracies and the reemerging manifestations of totalitarianism, censorship, and linguistic imperialism; then examines selected linguistic features of political discourse and their…

  2. Predictive Big Data Analytics: A Study of Parkinson's Disease Using Large, Complex, Heterogeneous, Incongruent, Multi-Source and Incomplete Observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinov, Ivo D; Heavner, Ben; Tang, Ming; Glusman, Gustavo; Chard, Kyle; Darcy, Mike; Madduri, Ravi; Pa, Judy; Spino, Cathie; Kesselman, Carl; Foster, Ian; Deutsch, Eric W; Price, Nathan D; Van Horn, John D; Ames, Joseph; Clark, Kristi; Hood, Leroy; Hampstead, Benjamin M; Dauer, William; Toga, Arthur W

    2016-01-01

    , which failed to generate accurate and reliable diagnostic predictions. However, the results of several machine-learning based classification methods indicated significant power to predict Parkinson's disease in the PPMI subjects (consistent accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity exceeding 96%, confirmed using statistical n-fold cross-validation). Clinical (e.g., Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) scores), demographic (e.g., age), genetics (e.g., rs34637584, chr12), and derived neuroimaging biomarker (e.g., cerebellum shape index) data all contributed to the predictive analytics and diagnostic forecasting. Model-free Big Data machine learning-based classification methods (e.g., adaptive boosting, support vector machines) can outperform model-based techniques in terms of predictive precision and reliability (e.g., forecasting patient diagnosis). We observed that statistical rebalancing of cohort sizes yields better discrimination of group differences, specifically for predictive analytics based on heterogeneous and incomplete PPMI data. UPDRS scores play a critical role in predicting diagnosis, which is expected based on the clinical definition of Parkinson's disease. Even without longitudinal UPDRS data, however, the accuracy of model-free machine learning based classification is over 80%. The methods, software and protocols developed here are openly shared and can be employed to study other neurodegenerative disorders (e.g., Alzheimer's, Huntington's, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis), as well as for other predictive Big Data analytics applications.

  3. Predictive Big Data Analytics: A Study of Parkinson's Disease Using Large, Complex, Heterogeneous, Incongruent, Multi-Source and Incomplete Observations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivo D Dinov

    -based predictive approaches, which failed to generate accurate and reliable diagnostic predictions. However, the results of several machine-learning based classification methods indicated significant power to predict Parkinson's disease in the PPMI subjects (consistent accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity exceeding 96%, confirmed using statistical n-fold cross-validation. Clinical (e.g., Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS scores, demographic (e.g., age, genetics (e.g., rs34637584, chr12, and derived neuroimaging biomarker (e.g., cerebellum shape index data all contributed to the predictive analytics and diagnostic forecasting.Model-free Big Data machine learning-based classification methods (e.g., adaptive boosting, support vector machines can outperform model-based techniques in terms of predictive precision and reliability (e.g., forecasting patient diagnosis. We observed that statistical rebalancing of cohort sizes yields better discrimination of group differences, specifically for predictive analytics based on heterogeneous and incomplete PPMI data. UPDRS scores play a critical role in predicting diagnosis, which is expected based on the clinical definition of Parkinson's disease. Even without longitudinal UPDRS data, however, the accuracy of model-free machine learning based classification is over 80%. The methods, software and protocols developed here are openly shared and can be employed to study other neurodegenerative disorders (e.g., Alzheimer's, Huntington's, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, as well as for other predictive Big Data analytics applications.

  4. A trauma-like model of political extremism: psycho-political fault lines in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laor, Nathaniel; Yanay-Shani, Alma; Wolmer, Leo; Khoury, Oula

    2010-10-01

    This study examines a trauma-like model of potentially violent political extremism among Jewish Israelis. We study the psychosocial characteristics of political extremists that may lie at the root of sociopolitical instability and assess personal (gender, stressful life events, Holocaust family background, and political activism) and psychological parameters (self- and political transcendence, perceived political threats, in/out-group identification ratio) that may predict readiness to engage in destructive political behavior. We examine the ideological zeal of various political groups, the relationship between the latter and perceived political threats, and the predictors of extreme political activism. Results showed that the extreme political poles displayed high level of ideological and morbid transcendence. Right extremists displayed higher perceived threats to physical existence and national identity. Left extremists scored highest on perceived moral integrity threat. Higher perceived threats to national identity and moral integrity, risk, and self-transcendence statistically explain morbid transcendence. When fear conjures up extremely skewed sociopolitical identifications across political boundaries, morbid transcendence may manifest itself in destructive political activity. © 2010 Association for Research in Nervous and Mental Disease.

  5. A State-of-the-Art Review of the Sensor Location, Flow Observability, Estimation, and Prediction Problems in Traffic Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Castillo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A state-of-the-art review of flow observability, estimation, and prediction problems in traffic networks is performed. Since mathematical optimization provides a general framework for all of them, an integrated approach is used to perform the analysis of these problems and consider them as different optimization problems whose data, variables, constraints, and objective functions are the main elements that characterize the problems proposed by different authors. For example, counted, scanned or “a priori” data are the most common data sources; conservation laws, flow nonnegativity, link capacity, flow definition, observation, flow propagation, and specific model requirements form the most common constraints; and least squares, likelihood, possible relative error, mean absolute relative error, and so forth constitute the bases for the objective functions or metrics. The high number of possible combinations of these elements justifies the existence of a wide collection of methods for analyzing static and dynamic situations.

  6. Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andriuzzi, W S; Adams, B J; Barrett, J E; Virginia, R A; Wall, D H

    2018-02-01

    Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  7. Strategic political postures and political market orientation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ormrod, Robert P.; Henneberg, Stephan C.

    2010-01-01

    by developing an integrated concept of political marketing strategy using two complementary frameworks, namely Strategic Political Postures (SPP) and Political Market Orientation (PMO). We introduce the two main concepts and derive for each of the strategic posture-specific PMO profiles as well as inter......Recently, the areas of strategic political marketing and political market orientation have been the subject of several conceptual articles which have provided the theoretical foundations for further empirical work. However, despite the close conceptual relatedness of the proposed concepts......, these have yet to be integrated to provide a more nuanced framework which both researchers and political marketing practitioners can utilise in the development of strategies and offerings with which to achieve their organizational goals. The aim of this conceptual paper is to address this deficit...

  8. Defect states in hexagonal boron nitride: Assignments of observed properties and prediction of properties relevant to quantum computation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sajid, A.; Reimers, Jeffrey R.; Ford, Michael J.

    2018-02-01

    Key properties of nine possible defect sites in hexagonal boron nitride (h-BN), VN,VN -1,CN,VNO2 B,VNNB,VNCB,VBCN,VBCNS iN , and VNCBS iB , are predicted using density-functional theory and are corrected by applying results from high-level ab initio calculations. Observed h-BN electron-paramagnetic resonance signals at 22.4, 20.83, and 352.70 MHz are assigned to VN,CN, and VNO2 B , respectively, while the observed photoemission at 1.95 eV is assigned to VNCB . Detailed consideration of the available excited states, allowed spin-orbit couplings, zero-field splitting, and optical transitions is made for the two related defects VNCB and VBCN . VNCB is proposed for realizing long-lived quantum memory in h-BN. VBCN is predicted to have a triplet ground state, implying that spin initialization by optical means is feasible and suitable optical excitations are identified, making this defect of interest for possible quantum-qubit operations.

  9. A model based approach in observing the activity of neuronal populations for the prediction of epileptic seizures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chong, M.S.; Nesic, D.; Kuhlmann, L.; Postoyan, R.; Varsavsky, A.; Cook, M.

    2010-01-01

    Full text: Epilepsy is a common neurological disease that affects 0.5-1 % of the world's population. In cases where known treatments cannot achieve complete recovery, seizure prediction is essential so that preventive measures can be undertaken to prevent resultant injury. The elcctroencephalogram (EEG) is a widely used diagnostic tool for epilepsy. However, the EEG does not provide a detailed view of the underlying seizure causing neuronal mechanisms. Knowing the dynamics of the neuronal population is useful because tracking the evolution of the neuronal mechanisms will allow us to track the brain's progression from interictal to ictal state. Wendling and colleagues proposed a parameterised mathematical model that represents the activity of interconnected neuronal populations. By modifying the parameters, this model is able to reproduce signals that are very similar to the real EEG depicting commonly observed patterns during interictal and ictal periods. The transition from non-seizure to seizure activity, as seen in the EEG. is hypothesised to be due to the impairment of inhibition. Using Wendling's model, we designed a deterministic nonlinear estimator to recover the average membrane potential of the neuronal populations from a single channel EEG signal. for any fixed and known parameter values. Our nonlinear estimator is analytically proven to asymptotically converge to the true state of the model and illustrated in simulations. We were able to computationally observe the dynamics of the three neuronal populations described in the model: excitatory, fast and slow inhibitory populations. This forms a first step towards the prediction of epileptic seiwres. (author)

  10. Effectiveness of Cooperative Learning Instructional Tools With Predict-Observe-Explain Strategy on the Topic of Cuboid and Cube Volume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurhuda; Lukito, A.; Masriyah

    2018-01-01

    This study aims to develop instructional tools and implement it to see the effectiveness. The method used in this research referred to Designing Effective Instruction. Experimental research with two-group pretest-posttest design method was conducted. The instructional tools have been developed is cooperative learning model with predict-observe-explain strategy on the topic of cuboid and cube volume which consist of lesson plans, POE tasks, and Tests. Instructional tools were of good quality by criteria of validity, practicality, and effectiveness. These instructional tools was very effective for teaching the volume of cuboid and cube. Cooperative instructional tool with predict-observe-explain (POE) strategy was good of quality because the teacher was easy to implement the steps of learning, students easy to understand the material and students’ learning outcomes completed classically. Learning by using this instructional tool was effective because learning activities were appropriate and students were very active. Students’ learning outcomes were completed classically and better than conventional learning. This study produced a good instructional tool and effectively used in learning. Therefore, these instructional tools can be used as an alternative to teach volume of cuboid and cube topics.

  11. The Predictive Value of Integrated Pulmonary Index after Off-Pump Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: A Prospective Observational Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evgenia V. Fot

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundThe early warning scores may increase the safety of perioperative period. The objective of this study was to assess the diagnostic and predictive role of Integrated Pulmonary Index (IPI after off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCAB.Materials and MethodsForty adult patients undergoing elective OPCAB were enrolled into a single-center prospective observational study. We assessed respiratory function using IPI that includes oxygen saturation, end-tidal CO2, respiratory rate, and pulse rate. In addition, we evaluated blood gas analyses and hemodynamics, including ECG, invasive arterial pressure, and cardiac index. The measurements were performed after transfer to the intensive care unit, after spontaneous breathing trial and at 2, 6, 12, and 18 h after extubation.Results and DiscussionThe value of IPI registered during respiratory support correlated weakly with cardiac index (rho = 0.4; p = 0.04 and ScvO2 (rho = 0.4, p = 0.02. After extubation, IPI values decreased significantly, achieving a minimum by 18 h. The IPI value ≤9 at 6 h after extubation was a predictor of complicated early postoperative period (AUC = 0.71; p = 0.04 observed in 13 patients.ConclusionIn off-pump coronary surgery, the IPI decreases significantly after tracheal extubation and may predict postoperative complications.

  12. Politics Backstage - Television Documentaries, Politics and Politicians

    OpenAIRE

    Ib Bondebjerg

    2006-01-01

    This article deals with "the transformation of visibility" in political discourse on and representation of politics and politicians in resent Dansih television documentaries. Drawing on the theories of Habermas, Meyrowitz and John B. Thompson, it is argued that the political persona on television is moved closer to the individual citizen, creating a sort "mediated quasi-inter- action" giving mediated communication a stronger element of face-to-face interaction. Together...

  13. Political entrepreneurship and bidding for political monopoly

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Wohlgemuth

    2000-01-01

    An analytical framework for dealing with political entrepreneurship and reform is proposed which is based on some new combinations of Schumpeterian political economy, an extended version of Tullock's model of democracy as franchise-bidding for natural monopoly and some basic elements of New Institutional Economics. It is shown that problems of insufficient award criteria and incomplete contracts which may arise in economic bidding schemes, also - and even more so - characterise political comp...

  14. Resource Windfalls, Political Regimes, and Political Stability

    OpenAIRE

    Francesco Caselli; Andrea Tesei

    2011-01-01

    We study theoretically and empirically whether natural resource windfalls affect political regimes. We document the following regularities. Natural resource windfalls have no effect on the political system when they occur in democracies. However, windfalls have significant political consequences in autocracies. In particular, when an autocratic country receives a positive shock to its flow of resource rents it responds by becoming even more autocratic. Furthermore, there is heterogeneity in t...

  15. Political party affiliation, political ideology and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pabayo, Roman; Kawachi, Ichiro; Muennig, Peter

    2015-05-01

    Ecological and cross-sectional studies have indicated that conservative political ideology is associated with better health. Longitudinal analyses of mortality are needed because subjective assessments of ideology may confound subjective assessments of health, particularly in cross-sectional analyses. Data were derived from the 2008 General Social Survey-National Death Index data set. Cox proportional analysis models were used to determine whether political party affiliation or political ideology was associated with time to death. Also, we attempted to identify whether self-reported happiness and self-rated health acted as mediators between political beliefs and time to death. In this analysis of 32,830 participants and a total follow-up time of 498,845 person-years, we find that political party affiliation and political ideology are associated with mortality. However, with the exception of independents (adjusted HR (AHR)=0.93, 95% CI 0.90 to 0.97), political party differences are explained by the participants' underlying sociodemographic characteristics. With respect to ideology, conservatives (AHR=1.06, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.12) and moderates (AHR=1.06, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.11) are at greater risk for mortality during follow-up than liberals. Political party affiliation and political ideology appear to be different predictors of mortality. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  16. Latitudinal and seasonal variability of the micrometeor input function: A study using model predictions and observations from Arecibo and PFISR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fentzke, J. T.; Janches, D.; Sparks, J. J.

    2009-05-01

    In this work, we use a semi-empirical model of the micrometeor input function (MIF) together with meteor head-echo observations obtained with two high power and large aperture (HPLA) radars, the 430 MHz Arecibo Observatory (AO) radar in Puerto Rico (18°N, 67°W) and the 450 MHz Poker flat incoherent scatter radar (PFISR) in Alaska (65°N, 147°W), to study the seasonal and geographical dependence of the meteoric flux in the upper atmosphere. The model, recently developed by Janches et al. [2006a. Modeling the global micrometeor input function in the upper atmosphere observed by high power and large aperture radars. Journal of Geophysical Research 111] and Fentzke and Janches [2008. A semi-empirical model of the contribution from sporadic meteoroid sources on the meteor input function observed at arecibo. Journal of Geophysical Research (Space Physics) 113 (A03304)], includes an initial mass flux that is provided by the six known meteor sources (i.e. orbital families of dust) as well as detailed modeling of meteoroid atmospheric entry and ablation physics. In addition, we use a simple ionization model to treat radar sensitivity issues by defining minimum electron volume density production thresholds required in the meteor head-echo plasma for detection. This simplified approach works well because we use observations from two radars with similar frequencies, but different sensitivities and locations. This methodology allows us to explore the initial input of particles and how it manifests in different parts of the MLT as observed by these instruments without the need to invoke more sophisticated plasma models, which are under current development. The comparisons between model predictions and radar observations show excellent agreement between diurnal, seasonal, and latitudinal variability of the detected meteor rate and radial velocity distributions, allowing us to understand how individual meteoroid populations contribute to the overall flux at a particular

  17. Processing of action- but not stimulus-related prediction errors differs between active and observational feedback learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobza, Stefan; Bellebaum, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Learning of stimulus-response-outcome associations is driven by outcome prediction errors (PEs). Previous studies have shown larger PE-dependent activity in the striatum for learning from own as compared to observed actions and the following outcomes despite comparable learning rates. We hypothesised that this finding relates primarily to a stronger integration of action and outcome information in active learners. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated brain activations related to action-dependent PEs, reflecting the deviation between action values and obtained outcomes, and action-independent PEs, reflecting the deviation between subjective values of response-preceding cues and obtained outcomes. To this end, 16 active and 15 observational learners engaged in a probabilistic learning card-guessing paradigm. On each trial, active learners saw one out of five cues and pressed either a left or right response button to receive feedback (monetary win or loss). Each observational learner observed exactly those cues, responses and outcomes of one active learner. Learning performance was assessed in active test trials without feedback and did not differ between groups. For both types of PEs, activations were found in the globus pallidus, putamen, cerebellum, and insula in active learners. However, only for action-dependent PEs, activations in these structures and the anterior cingulate were increased in active relative to observational learners. Thus, PE-related activity in the reward system is not generally enhanced in active relative to observational learning but only for action-dependent PEs. For the cerebellum, additional activations were found across groups for cue-related uncertainty, thereby emphasising the cerebellum's role in stimulus-outcome learning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Wind-Wave Effects on Vertical Mixing in Chesapeake Bay, USA: comparing observations to second-moment closure predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, A. W.; Sanford, L. P.; Scully, M. E.

    2016-12-01

    Coherent wave-driven turbulence generated through wave breaking or nonlinear wave-current interactions, e.g. Langmuir turbulence (LT), can significantly enhance the downward transfer of momentum, kinetic energy, and dissolved gases in the oceanic surface layer. There are few observations of these processes in the estuarine or coastal environments, where wind-driven mixing may co-occur with energetic tidal mixing and strong density stratification. This presents a major challenge for evaluating vertical mixing parameterizations used in modeling estuarine and coastal dynamics. We carried out a large, multi-investigator study of wind-driven estuarine dynamics in the middle reaches of Chesapeake Bay, USA, during 2012-2013. The center of the observational array was an instrumented turbulence tower with both atmospheric and marine turbulence sensors as well as rapidly sampled temperature and conductivity sensors. For this paper, we examined the impacts of surface gravity waves on vertical profiles of turbulent mixing and compared our results to second-moment turbulence closure predictions. Wave and turbulence measurements collected from the vertical array of Acoustic Doppler Velocimeters (ADVs) provided direct estimates of the dominant terms in the TKE budget and the surface wave field. Observed dissipation rates, TKE levels, and turbulent length scales are compared to published scaling relations and used in the calculation of second-moment nonequilibrium stability functions. Results indicate that in the surface layer of the estuary, where elevated dissipation is balanced by vertical divergence in TKE flux, existing nonequilibrium stability functions underpredict observed eddy viscosities. The influences of wave breaking and coherent wave-driven turbulence on modeled and observed stability functions will be discussed further in the context of turbulent length scales, TKE and dissipation profiles, and the depth at which the wave-dominated turbulent transport layer

  19. A multi-objective framework to predict flows of ungauged rivers within regions of sparse hydrometeorologic observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alipour, M.; Kibler, K. M.

    2017-12-01

    Despite advances in flow prediction, managers of ungauged rivers located within broad regions of sparse hydrometeorologic observation still lack prescriptive methods robust to the data challenges of such regions. We propose a multi-objective streamflow prediction framework for regions of minimum observation to select models that balance runoff efficiency with choice of accurate parameter values. We supplement sparse observed data with uncertain or low-resolution information incorporated as `soft' a priori parameter estimates. The performance of the proposed framework is tested against traditional single-objective and constrained single-objective calibrations in two catchments in a remote area of southwestern China. We find that the multi-objective approach performs well with respect to runoff efficiency in both catchments (NSE = 0.74 and 0.72), within the range of efficiencies returned by other models (NSE = 0.67 - 0.78). However, soil moisture capacity estimated by the multi-objective model resonates with a priori estimates (parameter residuals of 61 cm versus 289 and 518 cm for maximum soil moisture capacity in one catchment, and 20 cm versus 246 and 475 cm in the other; parameter residuals of 0.48 versus 0.65 and 0.7 for soil moisture distribution shape factor in one catchment, and 0.91 versus 0.79 and 1.24 in the other). Thus, optimization to a multi-criteria objective function led to very different representations of soil moisture capacity as compared to models selected by single-objective calibration, without compromising runoff efficiency. These different soil moisture representations may translate into considerably different hydrological behaviors. The proposed approach thus offers a preliminary step towards greater process understanding in regions of severe data limitations. For instance, the multi-objective framework may be an adept tool to discern between models of similar efficiency to select models that provide the "right answers for the right reasons

  20. Political learning among youth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solhaug, Trond; Kristensen, Niels Nørgaard

    2014-01-01

    This article focuses on students’ first political learning and explores the research question, what dynamic patterns of political learning can be explored among a selection of young, diverse Danish students’ first political interests? The authors use theories of learning in their analytical......, but are active constructors of their political life. Their emotions and social environment are highly important for their political orientation. It is recommended that further research focus on dynamic learning and on arenas for political learning rather than on “single agent studies.” Recommendations...

  1. Non-fragile observer-based output feedback control for polytopic uncertain system under distributed model predictive control approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Kaiqun; Song, Yan; Zhang, Sunjie; Zhong, Zhaozhun

    2017-07-01

    In this paper, a non-fragile observer-based output feedback control problem for the polytopic uncertain system under distributed model predictive control (MPC) approach is discussed. By decomposing the global system into some subsystems, the computation complexity is reduced, so it follows that the online designing time can be saved.Moreover, an observer-based output feedback control algorithm is proposed in the framework of distributed MPC to deal with the difficulties in obtaining the states measurements. In this way, the presented observer-based output-feedback MPC strategy is more flexible and applicable in practice than the traditional state-feedback one. What is more, the non-fragility of the controller has been taken into consideration in favour of increasing the robustness of the polytopic uncertain system. After that, a sufficient stability criterion is presented by using Lyapunov-like functional approach, meanwhile, the corresponding control law and the upper bound of the quadratic cost function are derived by solving an optimisation subject to convex constraints. Finally, some simulation examples are employed to show the effectiveness of the method.

  2. Perceived Organisational Politics, Political Behaviour and Employee ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    facing both private and public sector organisations (Nidhi & Prerna, 2015;. Gotsis & Kortezi ... These studies suggest that organisational politics often interfere with normal ..... Rawls's (1971) theory of justice provides a theoretical foundation for the relationship between ..... Ethical considerations in organisational politics: ...

  3. Celebrity politics: the politics of late modernity?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marsh, D.; t Hart, P.; Tindall, K.

    2010-01-01

    The academic literature on celebrity politics is rarely systematic; more often it is superficial and anecdotal. In addition, most of the literature focuses either upon classifying different types/categories of celebrity politicians and their roles in politics, or upon the question of whether the

  4. Exploring Women's Understanding of Politics, Political Contestation ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Exploring Women's Understanding of Politics, Political Contestation and Gender Transformation in the Caribbean. IDRC's Democratic Governance, Women's Rights and Gender Equality initiative is supporting a body of comparative research on whether and how democratic processes and institutions are responding to ...

  5. Progress in Space Weather Modeling and Observations Needed to Improve the Operational NAIRAS Model Aircraft Radiation Exposure Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertens, C. J.; Kress, B. T.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Tobiska, W.; Xu, X.

    2011-12-01

    The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a prototype operational model for predicting commercial aircraft radiation exposure from galactic and solar cosmic rays. NAIRAS predictions are currently streaming live from the project's public website, and the exposure rate nowcast is also available on the SpaceWx smartphone app for iPhone, IPad, and Android. Cosmic rays are the primary source of human exposure to high linear energy transfer radiation at aircraft altitudes, which increases the risk of cancer and other adverse health effects. Thus, the NAIRAS model addresses an important national need with broad societal, public health and economic benefits. The processes responsible for the variability in the solar wind, interplanetary magnetic field, solar energetic particle spectrum, and the dynamical response of the magnetosphere to these space environment inputs, strongly influence the composition and energy distribution of the atmospheric ionizing radiation field. During the development of the NAIRAS model, new science questions were identified that must be addressed in order to obtain a more reliable and robust operational model of atmospheric radiation exposure. Addressing these science questions require improvements in both space weather modeling and observations. The focus of this talk is to present these science questions, the proposed methodologies for addressing these science questions, and the anticipated improvements to the operational predictions of atmospheric radiation exposure. The overarching goal of this work is to provide a decision support tool for the aviation industry that will enable an optimal balance to be achieved between minimizing health risks to passengers and aircrew while simultaneously minimizing costs to the airline companies.

  6. Soluble Suppression of Tumorigenicity-2 Predicts Hospital Mortality in Burn Patients: An Observational Prospective Cohort Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Castilla, Mireia; Bosacoma, Pau; Dos Santos, Bruce; Baena, Jacinto; Guilabert, Patricia; Marin-Corral, Judith; Masclans, Joan R; Roca, Oriol; Barret, Juan P

    2018-04-10

    The IL33/ST2 pathway has been implicated in the pathogenesis of different inflammatory diseases. Our aim was to analyze whether plasma levels of biomarkers involved in the IL33/ST2 axis might help to predict mortality in burn patients. Single-center prospective observational cohort pilot study performed at the Burns Unit of the Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery Department of the Vall d'Hebron University Hospital (Barcelona). All patients aged ≥18 years old with second or third-degree burns requiring admission to the Burns Unit were considered for inclusion. Blood samples were taken to measure levels of interleukins (IL)6, IL8, IL33, and soluble suppression of tumorigenicity-2 (sST2) within 24 h of admission to the Burns Unit and at day 3. Results are expressed as medians and interquartile ranges or as frequencies and percentages. Sixty-nine patients (58 [84.1%] male, mean age 52 [35-63] years, total body surface area burned 21% [13%-30%], Abbreviated Burn Severity Index 6 [4-8]) were included. Thirteen (18.8%) finally died in the Burns Unit. Plasma levels of sST2 measured at day 3 after admission demonstrated the best prediction accuracy for survival (area under the ROC curve 0.85 [0.71-0.99]; P < 0.001). The best cutoff point for the AUROC index was estimated to be 2,561. In the Cox proportional hazards model, after adjusting for potential confounding, a plasma sST2 level ≥2,561 measured at day 3 was significantly associated with mortality (HR 6.94 [1.73-27.74]; P = 0.006). Plasma sST2 at day 3 predicts hospital mortality in burn patients.

  7. Contentious Politics and Participatory Democracy in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Wampler

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/2175-7984.2014v13n28p199 Contentious politics helps individuals and groups with limited political voice to place their ideas and interests on the political agenda. Contentious politics were long thought to occur when politically marginalized group had no other means to advance their political agenda. The June 2013 social mobilization in Brazil caught most political observers by surprise, especially given the creation of a large, wide-spread participatory architecture (national conferences, councils, participatory budgeting. The innovative institutions emerging in Brazil created a policy environment in which millions of citizens have regular access to state policymaking bodies. How does the institutionalization of a broader network of participatory institutions make it easier for citizens to engage in contentious politics? In what ways does this institutionalization make it more difficult for some citizens to engage in contentious politics? In what ways has the vast network of participatory institutions been largely irrelevant to how citizens use contentious politics? This article explore how the institutionalization of an extensive participatory democracy system in Brazil alters the incentive structures that encourage citizens to engage in contentious collective action.

  8. Political Values or the Value of Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simoska, Emilija

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This essay was motivated by the gap between proclaimed democratic principles and the perceptions of politics which are exhibited by the citizens in transitional countries -more specifically in the Republic of Macedonia. It is based on research data collected in the past few decades, which illustrate that, in their political actions, the citizens are highly motivated by personal benefits and profits, rather than by their internalized values and ideologies. Non-democratic, authoritarian values prevail, while politics is perceived as a value itself, in the most materialistic meaning of the word. It creates a suitable milieu for growth of corruption, nepotism and clientelism. The authors conclude that such a circulus vitsiosus is a corner stone of the Macedonian political regime, and an enormous obstacle for the advancement of the participative, democratic political culture in reality, in spite of its formal acceptance.

  9. Can MRI Observations Predict Treatment Outcome of Lavage in Patients with Painful TMJ Disc Displacement without Reduction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekberg, EwaCarin; Hansson, Lars-Göran; List, Thomas; Eriksson, Lars; Sahlström, Lotta Englesson; Petersson, Arne

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine magnetic resonance imaging findings in patients with painful disc displacement without reduction of the temporomandibular joint to determine whether the findings were able to predict treatment outcome of lavage and a control group treated with local anaesthesia without lavage in a short-term: 3-month perspective. Bilateral magnetic resonance images were taken of 37 patients with the clinical diagnosis of painful disc displacement without reduction. Twenty-three patients received unilateral extra-articular local anaesthetics and 14 unilateral lavage and extra-articular local anaesthetics. The primary treatment outcome defining success was reduction in pain intensity of at least 30% during jaw movement at the 3-month follow-up. Bilateral disc displacement was found in 30 patients. In 31 patients the disc on the treated side was deformed, and bilaterally in 19 patients. Osteoarthritis was observed in 28 patients, and 13 patients had bilateral changes. Thirty patients responded to treatment and 7 did not, with no difference between the two treated groups. In neither the treated nor the contralateral temporomandibular joint did treatment outcome depend on disc diagnosis, disc shape, joint effusion, or osseous diagnoses. Magnetic resonance imaging findings of disc position, disc shape, joint effusion or osseous diagnosis on the treated or contralateral side did not give information of treatment outcome. Magnetic resonance imaging findings could not predict treatment outcome in patients treated with either local anaesthetics or local anaesthetics and lavage.

  10. Chaos emerging in soil failure patterns observed during tillage: Normalized deterministic nonlinear prediction (NDNP) and its application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakai, Kenshi; Upadhyaya, Shrinivasa K; Andrade-Sanchez, Pedro; Sviridova, Nina V

    2017-03-01

    Real-world processes are often combinations of deterministic and stochastic processes. Soil failure observed during farm tillage is one example of this phenomenon. In this paper, we investigated the nonlinear features of soil failure patterns in a farm tillage process. We demonstrate emerging determinism in soil failure patterns from stochastic processes under specific soil conditions. We normalized the deterministic nonlinear prediction considering autocorrelation and propose it as a robust way of extracting a nonlinear dynamical system from noise contaminated motion. Soil is a typical granular material. The results obtained here are expected to be applicable to granular materials in general. From a global scale to nano scale, the granular material is featured in seismology, geotechnology, soil mechanics, and particle technology. The results and discussions presented here are applicable in these wide research areas. The proposed method and our findings are useful with respect to the application of nonlinear dynamics to investigate complex motions generated from granular materials.

  11. African Journal of Political Science

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This essay examines the role which the Nigerian media played in the transition from military rule to elected civilian government. It observes that the immediate political context of the transition was a post-Abacha liberalizing military administration as well as a resurgent civil society. This context meant that the media was able ...

  12. Aespoe HRL - Geoscientific evaluation 1997/3. Results from pre-investigation and detailed site characterization. Comparison of predictions and observations. Geology and mechanical stability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stanfors, R.; Olsson, Paer; Stille, H.

    1997-05-01

    Prior to excavation of the laboratory in 1990 predictions were made for the excavation phase. The predictions concern five key issues: Geology, groundwater flow, groundwater chemistry, transport of solutes, and mechanical stability. Comparisons between predictions and observations were made during excavation in order to verify the reliability of the pre-investigations. This report presents a comparison between the geological and mechanical stability predictions and observations and an evaluation of data and investigation methods used for the 700-2874 m section of the tunnel. The report is specially highlighting the following conclusions: It is possible to localize major fracture zones during the pre-investigation at shallow (<200 m) depths; A number of minor fracture zones striking NNW-NNE were predicted to be hydraulically important and penetrate the southern area. A number of narrow fracture zone indications - 0.1-1 m wide - striking WNW-NE were mapped in the tunnel and pre-grouted sections confirm hydraulic conductors; It has not been possible to confirm the gently dipping zone EW-5, which was predicted as 'possible', with data from the tunnel; Predictions of the amount of different rock types were generally reliable as regards the major rocks, but the prediction of the distribution in space were poor as regards the minor rock types; The prediction of rock stress orientation corresponds well to the outcome; The prediction of rock quality for the tunnel, while applying the RMR-system, shows good correspondence to the observations made in the tunnel

  13. Comparison of observed rheological properties of hard wheat flour dough with predictions of the Giesekus-Leonov, White-Metzner and Phan-Thien Tanner models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhanasekharan, M.; Huang, H.; Kokini, J. L.; Janes, H. W. (Principal Investigator)

    1999-01-01

    The measured rheological behavior of hard wheat flour dough was predicted using three nonlinear differential viscoelastic models. The Phan-Thien Tanner model gave good zero shear viscosity prediction, but overpredicted the shear viscosity at higher shear rates and the transient and extensional properties. The Giesekus-Leonov model gave similar predictions to the Phan-Thien Tanner model, but the extensional viscosity prediction showed extension thickening. Using high values of the mobility factor, extension thinning behavior was observed but the predictions were not satisfactory. The White-Metzner model gave good predictions of the steady shear viscosity and the first normal stress coefficient but it was unable to predict the uniaxial extensional viscosity as it exhibited asymptotic behavior in the tested extensional rates. It also predicted the transient shear properties with moderate accuracy in the transient phase, but very well at higher times, compared to the Phan-Thien Tanner model and the Giesekus-Leonov model. None of the models predicted all observed data consistently well. Overall the White-Metzner model appeared to make the best predictions of all the observed data.

  14. Disgust, politics, and responses to threat

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Inbar, Y.; Pizarro, D.A.

    2014-01-01

    We address two questions regarding the relationship between political ideology and responses to threatening or aversive stimuli. The first concerns the reason for the connection between disgust and specific political and moral attitudes; the second concerns the observation that some responses to

  15. Force and Accommodation in World Politics

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Spangler, Stanley

    1991-01-01

    ..." and "carrots" to achieve political objectives. Clearly the subject-the use of force and accommodation to achieve political ends-is a topic that has been analyzed over the years by a host of observers, ranging from Niccol Machiavelli to John F. Kennedy...

  16. Sustainability : Politics and governance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heinrichs, Harald; Biermann, Frank

    2016-01-01

    he article gives an overview of global sustainability policy and politics. It is shown how international policy making on sustainable development has progressed from environmental policy toward recent approaches of Earth system governance. Key challenges of international sustainability politics are

  17. Political Economy of Finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.

    2013-01-01

    This survey reviews how a recent political economy literature helps explaining variation in governance, competition, funding composition and access to credit. Evolution in political institutions can account for financial evolution, and appear critical to explain rapid changes in financial structure,

  18. Politics, Security, Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wæver, Ole

    2011-01-01

    theory is found to ‘act politically’ through three structural features that systematically shape the political effects of using the theory. The article further discusses – on the basis of the preceding articles in the special issue – three emerging debates around securitization theory: ethics......This article outlines three ways of analysing the ‘politics of securitization’, emphasizing an often-overlooked form of politics practised through theory design. The structure and nature of a theory can have systematic political implications. Analysis of this ‘politics of securitization......’ is distinct from both the study of political practices of securitization and explorations of competing concepts of politics among security theories. It means tracking what kinds of analysis the theory can produce and whether such analysis systematically impacts real-life political struggles. Securitization...

  19. Acoustic signal emission monitoring as a novel method to predict steam pops during radiofrequency ablation: preliminary observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chik, William W B; Kosobrodov, Roman; Bhaskaran, Abhishek; Barry, Michael Anthony Tony; Nguyen, Doan Trang; Pouliopoulos, Jim; Byth, Karen; Sivagangabalan, Gopal; Thomas, Stuart P; Ross, David L; McEwan, Alistair; Kovoor, Pramesh; Thiagalingam, Aravinda

    2015-04-01

    Steam pop is an explosive rupture of cardiac tissue caused by tissue overheating above 100 °C, resulting in steam formation, predisposing to serious complications associated with radiofrequency (RF) ablations. However, there are currently no reliable techniques to predict the occurrence of steam pops. We propose the utility of acoustic signals emitted during RF ablation as a novel method to predict steam pop formation and potentially prevent serious complications. Radiofrequency generator parameters (power, impedance, and temperature) were temporally recorded during ablations performed in an in vitro bovine myocardial model. The acoustic system consisted of HTI-96-min hydrophone, microphone preamplifier, and sound card connected to a laptop computer. The hydrophone has the frequency range of 2 Hz to 30 kHz and nominal sensitivity in the range -240 to -165 dB. The sound was sampled at 96 kHz with 24-bit resolution. Output signal from the hydrophone was fed into the camera audio input to synchronize the video stream. An automated system was developed for the detection and analysis of acoustic events. Nine steam pops were observed. Three distinct sounds were identified as warning signals, each indicating rapid steam formation and its release from tissue. These sounds had a broad frequency range up to 6 kHz with several spectral peaks around 2-3 kHz. Subjectively, these warning signals were perceived as separate loud clicks, a quick succession of clicks, or continuous squeaking noise. Characteristic acoustic signals were identified preceding 80% of pops occurrence. Six cardiologists were able to identify 65% of acoustic signals accurately preceding the pop. An automated system identified the characteristic warning signals in 85% of cases. The mean time from the first acoustic signal to pop occurrence was 46 ± 20 seconds. The automated system had 72.7% sensitivity and 88.9% specificity for predicting pops. Easily identifiable characteristic acoustic emissions

  20. Comparing Political Communication

    OpenAIRE

    Pfetsch, Barbara; Esser, Frank

    2012-01-01

    This chapter describes the maturation of comparative political communications as a sub-discipline and defines its conceptual core. It then lays out the concept of “political communication system”. At the macro-level, this model captures the patterns of interaction between media and politics as social systems; at the micro-level it captures the interactions between media and political actors as individuals or organizations. Comparative research in this tradition focuses on the structure of pol...

  1. Western Political Consulting Techniques and Post-Soviet Political Technology in Political Campaigns in Latvia

    OpenAIRE

    Bērziņa, Ieva

    2012-01-01

    Western Political Consulting Techniques and Post-Soviet Political Technology in Political Campaigns in Latvia Ieva Dmitričenko Keywords: political campaignsm political consulting, political technology, parties, marketing, media Political campaigning is an international phenomenon, because there is a free flow of information, knowledge and human resource among practitioners of political campaigning in various countries. As a result political campaigning techniques that have proven to ...

  2. Predictions and Observations of Low-shear Beta-induced Alfvén-acoustic Eigenmodes in Toroidal Plasmas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gorelenkov, N. N.; Berk, H. L.; Fredrickson, E.; Sharapov, S. E.

    2007-07-02

    New global MHD eigenmode solutions arising in gaps in the low frequency Alfvén -acoustic continuum below the geodesic acoustic mode (GAM) frequency have been found numerically and have been used to explain relatively low frequency experimental signals seen in NSTX and JET tokamaks. These global eigenmodes, referred to here as Beta-induced Alfvén-Acoustic Eigenmodes (BAAE), exist in the low magnetic safety factor region near the extrema of the Alfvén-acoustic continuum. In accordance to the linear dispersion relations, the frequency of these modes shifts as the safety factor, q, decreases. We show that BAAEs can be responsible for observations in JET plasmas at relatively low beta < 2% as well as in NSTX plasmas at relatively high beta > 20%. In contrast to the mostly electrostatic character of GAMs the new global modes also contain an electromagnetic (magnetic field line bending) component due to the Alfvén coupling, leading to wave phase velocities along the field line that are large compared to the sonic speed. Qualitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observations are found.

  3. Predictions and observations of low-shear beta-induced shear Alfven-acoustic eigenmodes in toroidal plasmas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gorelenkov, N.N. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton University (United States)], E-mail: ngorelen@pppl.gov; Berk, H.L. [IFS, Austin, Texas (United States); Fredrickson, E. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton University (United States); Sharapov, S.E. [Euroatom/UKAEA Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxfordshire (United States)

    2007-10-08

    New global MHD eigenmode solutions arising in gaps in the low frequency Alfven-acoustic continuum below the geodesic acoustic mode (GAM) frequency have been found numerically and have been used to explain relatively low frequency experimental signals seen in NSTX and JET tokamaks. These global eigenmodes, referred to here as Beta-induced Alfven-Acoustic Eigenmodes (BAAE), exist in the low magnetic safety factor region near the extrema of the Alfven-acoustic continuum. In accordance to the linear dispersion relations, the frequency of these modes shifts as the safety factor, q, decreases. We show that BAAEs can be responsible for observations in JET plasmas at relatively low beta <2% as well as in NSTX plasmas at relatively high-beta >20%. In contrast to the mostly electrostatic character of GAMs the new global modes also contain an electromagnetic (magnetic field line bending) component due to the Alfven coupling, leading to wave phase velocities along the field line that are large compared to the sonic speed. Qualitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observations are found.

  4. Analyzing Political Television Advertisements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burson, George

    1992-01-01

    Presents a lesson plan to help students understand that political advertisements often mislead, lie, or appeal to emotion. Suggests that the lesson will enable students to examine political advertisements analytically. Includes a worksheet to be used by students to analyze individual political advertisements. (DK)

  5. Political institutions since 1820

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Foldvari, Peter; Buzasi, Katalin

    2014-01-01

    Political institutions determine the degree of freedom people enjoy and their capacity to influence their social and political environment. This chapter provides historical evidence on the evolution of political institutions drawing upon two major research projects: the PolityIV dataset and the

  6. Political Education in School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dag, Nilgun; Sozer, Mehmet Akif; Sel, Burcu

    2015-01-01

    Political education is a term with negative associations and triggering prejudiced approaches and discourses--maybe some paranoid thoughts--like "keep politics away from education!" in the minds of several people. This article deals with "political education" phenomenon almost never discussed and made subject to scientific…

  7. What is Political Psychology?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deutsch, Morton

    1983-01-01

    Political psychology is the study of the bidirectional interaction of political and psychological processes. This academic discipline was founded after the First World War by Harold D. Lasswell. The content of political psychology is discussed and illustrative studies of the field are briefly summarized. (CS)

  8. Tracking Politics with POWER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, Silvio; Batista, David S.; Carvalho, Paula; Couto, Francisco M.; Silva, Mario J.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: POWER is an ontology of political processes and entities. It is designed for tracking politicians, political organizations and elections, both in mainstream and social media. The aim of this paper is to propose a data model to describe political agents and their relations over time. Design/methodology/approach: The authors propose a data…

  9. Kentucky physicians and politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    VonderHaar, W P; Monnig, W B

    1998-09-01

    Approximately 19% of Kentucky Physicians are KEMPAC members or contribute to state legislative and Gubernatorial candidates. This limited study of political activity indicates that a small percentage of physicians participate in the political process. Despite the small number of contributors to state legislative candidates, KMA's legislative and lobbying effort is highly effective and members receive high quality service and representation in the political arena.

  10. Politically Active Home Economists: Their Socialization to Politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ley, Connie J.

    1980-01-01

    A nationwide study identified a pattern of political socialization for home economists who were politically active. The most outstanding feature of the politically active subjects was their perception that political activity is a professional role. (SK)

  11. Ocean Observing Public-Private Collaboration to Improve Tropical Storm and Hurricane Predictions in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, R.; Leung, P.; McCall, W.; Martin, K. M.; Howden, S. D.; Vandermeulen, R. A.; Kim, H. S. S.; Kirkpatrick, B. A.; Watson, S.; Smith, W.

    2016-02-01

    In 2008, Shell partnered with NOAA to explore opportunities for improving storm predictions in the Gulf of Mexico. Since, the collaboration has grown to include partners from Shell, NOAA National Data Buoy Center and National Center for Environmental Information, National Center for Environmental Prediction, University of Southern Mississippi, and the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Ocean Observing System. The partnership leverages complementary strengths of each collaborator to build a comprehensive and sustainable monitoring and data program to expand observing capacity and protect offshore assets and Gulf communities from storms and hurricanes. The program combines in situ and autonomous platforms with remote sensing and numerical modeling. Here we focus on profiling gliders and the benefits of a public-private partnership model for expanding regional ocean observing capacity. Shallow and deep gliders measure ocean temperature to derive ocean heat content (OHC), along with salinity, dissolved oxygen, fluorescence, and CDOM, in the central and eastern Gulf shelf and offshore. Since 2012, gliders have collected 4500+ vertical profiles and surveyed 5000+ nautical miles. Adaptive sampling and mission coordination with NCEP modelers provides specific datasets to assimilate into EMC's coupled HYCOM-HWRF model and 'connect-the-dots' between well-established Eulerian metocean measurements by obtaining (and validating) data between fixed stations (e.g. platform and buoy ADCPs) . Adaptive sampling combined with remote sensing provides satellite-derived OHC validation and the ability to sample productive coastal waters advected offshore by the Loop Current. Tracking coastal waters with remote sensing provides another verification of estimate Loop Current and eddy boundaries, as well as quantifying productivity and analyzing water quality on the Gulf coast, shelf break and offshore. Incorporating gliders demonstrates their value as tools to better protect offshore oil and gas assets

  12. INTEGRATED MARKETING COMMUNICATION IN POLITICS?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ovidiu-Aurel GHIUŢĂ

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The current study has practical applicability in politic al domain and theoretical involvement at politicalmarketing communication level. The type of the research is a qualitative one, using as survey methods scientificobservation and documentary search. The aim of the research is to prove the applicability of marketing communicationconcept integrated in political marketing and global marketing communication. There are also exceptions, justanalyzing the industry – politics, in which integrated communication can’t be considered global communication.The subject of integrated marketing communication is relatively a new one in marketing (two decades, but itsapplicability in political domain and the specifications that assumes this application represents o new vision atEuropean and worldwide level. This study clearly presents the differences between the integrated marketingcommunication and global marketing communication.In documentary research, the author used studies belonging to Anglo – Saxons theoreticians and practitioners(Americans, Canadians, British but also Europeans (French, Belgians, Romanians. The main reason is the fact that inmarketing domain on extremely narrow scientific sections the visions belonging to these two main orientations aren’talways equable. Also, in scientific observation, t he research analyses political events from United States of America,France and Romania. Due to this reason, we can affirm that the current study has not only a regional applicability butalso a global one.

  13. Experiments with data assimilation in comprehensive air quality models: Impacts on model predictions and observation requirements (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathur, R.

    2009-12-01

    Emerging regional scale atmospheric simulation models must address the increasing complexity arising from new model applications that treat multi-pollutant interactions. Sophisticated air quality modeling systems are needed to develop effective abatement strategies that focus on simultaneously controlling multiple criteria pollutants as well as use in providing short term air quality forecasts. In recent years the applications of such models is continuously being extended to address atmospheric pollution phenomenon from local to hemispheric spatial scales over time scales ranging from episodic to annual. The need to represent interactions between physical and chemical atmospheric processes occurring at these disparate spatial and temporal scales requires the use of observation data beyond traditional in-situ networks so that the model simulations can be reasonably constrained. Preliminary applications of assimilation of remote sensing and aloft observations within a comprehensive regional scale atmospheric chemistry-transport modeling system will be presented: (1) A methodology is developed to assimilate MODIS aerosol optical depths in the model to represent the impacts long-range transport associated with the summer 2004 Alaskan fires on surface-level regional fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations across the Eastern U.S. The episodic impact of this pollution transport event on PM2.5 concentrations over the eastern U.S. during mid-July 2004, is quantified through the complementary use of the model with remotely-sensed, aloft, and surface measurements; (2) Simple nudging experiments with limited aloft measurements are performed to identify uncertainties in model representations of physical processes and assess the potential use of such measurements in improving the predictive capability of atmospheric chemistry-transport models. The results from these early applications will be discussed in context of uncertainties in the model and in the remote sensing

  14. Relationship between the Prediction Accuracy of Tsunami Inundation and Relative Distribution of Tsunami Source and Observation Arrays: A Case Study in Tokyo Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takagawa, T.

    2017-12-01

    A rapid and precise tsunami forecast based on offshore monitoring is getting attention to reduce human losses due to devastating tsunami inundation. We developed a forecast method based on the combination of hierarchical Bayesian inversion with pre-computed database and rapid post-computing of tsunami inundation. The method was applied to Tokyo bay to evaluate the efficiency of observation arrays against three tsunamigenic earthquakes. One is a scenario earthquake at Nankai trough and the other two are historic ones of Genroku in 1703 and Enpo in 1677. In general, rich observation array near the tsunami source has an advantage in both accuracy and rapidness of tsunami forecast. To examine the effect of observation time length we used four types of data with the lengths of 5, 10, 20 and 45 minutes after the earthquake occurrences. Prediction accuracy of tsunami inundation was evaluated by the simulated tsunami inundation areas around Tokyo bay due to target earthquakes. The shortest time length of accurate prediction varied with target earthquakes. Here, accurate prediction means the simulated values fall within the 95% credible intervals of prediction. In Enpo earthquake case, 5-minutes observation is enough for accurate prediction for Tokyo bay, but 10-minutes and 45-minutes are needed in the case of Nankai trough and Genroku, respectively. The difference of the shortest time length for accurate prediction shows the strong relationship with the relative distance from the tsunami source and observation arrays. In the Enpo case, offshore tsunami observation points are densely distributed even in the source region. So, accurate prediction can be rapidly achieved within 5 minutes. This precise prediction is useful for early warnings. Even in the worst case of Genroku, where less observation points are available near the source, accurate prediction can be obtained within 45 minutes. This information can be useful to figure out the outline of the hazard in an early

  15. Improving predictions for collider observables by consistently combining fixed order calculations with resummed results in perturbation theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoenherr, Marek

    2011-01-01

    With the constantly increasing precision of experimental data acquired at the current collider experiments Tevatron and LHC the theoretical uncertainty on the prediction of multiparticle final states has to decrease accordingly in order to have meaningful tests of the underlying theories such as the Standard Model. A pure leading order calculation, defined in the perturbative expansion of said theory in the interaction constant, represents the classical limit to such a quantum field theory and was already found to be insufficient at past collider experiments, e.g. LEP or HERA. Such a leading order calculation can be systematically improved in various limits. If the typical scales of a process are large and the respective coupling constants are small, the inclusion of fixed-order higher-order corrections then yields quickly converging predictions with much reduced uncertainties. In certain regions of the phase space, still well within the perturbative regime of the underlying theory, a clear hierarchy of the inherent scales, however, leads to large logarithms occurring at every order in perturbation theory. In many cases these logarithms are universal and can be resummed to all orders leading to precise predictions in these limits. Multiparticle final states now exhibit both small and large scales, necessitating a description using both resummed and fixed-order results. This thesis presents the consistent combination of two such resummation schemes with fixed-order results. The main objective therefor is to identify and properly treat terms that are present in both formulations in a process and observable independent manner. In the first part the resummation scheme introduced by Yennie, Frautschi and Suura (YFS), resumming large logarithms associated with the emission of soft photons in massive QED, is combined with fixed-order next-to-leading matrix elements. The implementation of a universal algorithm is detailed and results are studied for various precision

  16. Does sarcopenia predict change in mobility after hip fracture? a multicenter observational study with one-year follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steihaug, Ole Martin; Gjesdal, Clara Gram; Bogen, Bård; Kristoffersen, Målfrid Holen; Lien, Gunhild; Hufthammer, Karl Ove; Ranhoff, Anette Hylen

    2018-03-05

    Patients with hip fracture frequently have sarcopenia and are at great risk of loss of mobility. We have investigated if sarcopenia predicts change in mobility after hip fracture. This is a prospective, multicenter observational study with one-year follow-up. Patients with hip fracture who were community-living and capable of walking before the fracture were included at three hospitals in Norway (2011-2013). The primary outcome of the study was change in mobility, measured by the New Mobility Score (NMS). Sarcopenia was determined postoperatively by anthropometry, grip strength, and NMS. We included 282 participants and sarcopenia status was determined in 201, of whom 38% (77/201) had sarcopenia, 66% (128/194) had low muscle mass, 52% (116/222) had low grip strength and 8% (20/244) had low pre-fracture mobility (NMS mobility (effect 0.2 points; 95% CI -0.5 to 0.9, P = 0.6), but it was associated with having lower mobility at one-year (NMS 5.8 (SD 2.3) vs. 6.8 (SD 2.2), P = 0.003), becoming a resident of a nursing home (odds ratio 3.2, 95% CI 0.9 to 12.4, P = 0.048), and the combined endpoint of becoming a resident of a skilled nursing home or death (odds ratio 3.6, 95% CI 1.2 to 12.2, P = 0.02). Sarcopenia did not predict change in mobility in the year after hip fracture.

  17. Political Science and Political Geography: Neglected Areas, Areas for Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laponce, J. A.

    1983-01-01

    Since at least the 1950s, political scientists have tended to ignore the possible contributions of political geography to political science because of a move away from considering spatial factors on political structure. Political scientists need to use more information from geography to enhance their understanding of political power and conflict.…

  18. Serum Procalcitonin and Peripheral Venous Lactate for Predicting Dengue Shock and/or Organ Failure: A Prospective Observational Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vipa Thanachartwet

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Currently, there are no biomarkers that can predict the incidence of dengue shock and/or organ failure, although the early identification of risk factors is important in determining appropriate management to reduce mortality. Therefore, we sought to determine the factors associated with dengue shock and/or organ failure and to evaluate the prognostic value of serum procalcitonin (PCT and peripheral venous lactate (PVL levels as biomarkers of dengue shock and/or organ failure.A prospective observational study was conducted among adults hospitalized for confirmed viral dengue infection at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Bangkok, Thailand between October 2013 and July 2015. Data, including baseline characteristics, clinical parameters, laboratory findings, serum PCT and PVL levels, management, and outcomes, were recorded on pre-defined case report forms. Of 160 patients with dengue, 128 (80.0% patients had dengue without shock or organ failure, whereas 32 (20.0% patients developed dengue with shock and/or organ failure. Using a stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis, PCT ≥0.7 ng/mL (odds ratio [OR]: 4.80; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.60-14.45; p = 0.005 and PVL ≥2.5 mmol/L (OR: 27.99, 95% CI: 8.47-92.53; p <0.001 were independently associated with dengue shock and/or organ failure. A combination of PCT ≥0.7 ng/mL and PVL ≥2.5 mmol/L provided good prognostic value for predicting dengue shock and/or organ failure, with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.74-0.92, a sensitivity of 81.2% (95% CI: 63.6-92.8%, and a specificity of 84.4% (95% CI: 76.9-90.2%. Dengue shock patients with non-clearance of PCT and PVL expired during hospitalization.PCT ≥0.7 ng/mL and PVL ≥2.5 mmol/L were independently associated with dengue shock and/or organ failure. The combination of PCT and PVL levels could be used as prognostic biomarkers for the prediction of dengue shock and/or organ failure.

  19. International Contexts for Political Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harber, Clive

    1991-01-01

    Uses international examples of the ways in which political learning takes place--indoctrination, political socialization, and political education--to suggest that open and democratic political education is not common, even in democracies. (SK)

  20. Putting politics first.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, Jacob S

    2008-01-01

    The greatest lesson of the failure of comprehensive health reform in the early 1990s is that politics comes first. Even the best-laid policy plans are worthless if they lack the political support to pass. Putting politics first means avoiding the overarching mistake of the Clinton reformers: envisioning a grand policy compromise rather than hammering out a real political compromise. It also means addressing the inevitable fears of those who believe that they are well protected by our eroding employment-based system. And it means formulating political strategies that are premised on the contemporary realities of the hyperpolarized U.S. political environment, rather than wistfully recalled images of the bipartisan politics of old.

  1. Religion and Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bandak, Andreas

    2018-01-01

    Religion and politics provide an interesting juxtaposition. On the one hand, both may initially come across as rather self-evident categories, with religion dealing with human perceptions and what people hold as sacred, and politics addressing the control and governance of fellow human beings....... Nonetheless, such a simple opposition should only work as a starting point for an interrogation of both terms and how they have come to look and function as empirical and analytical categories. Focusing on the ways that religion is played out in relation to politics reveals different historical and cultural...... constellations and positions, which can be highlighted as variations of religion as politics, religion in politics, religion out of politics, and religion not politics....

  2. Political Budget Cycles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aaskoven, Lasse; Lassen, David Dreyer

    2017-01-01

    The political budget cycle—how elections affect government fiscal policy—is one of the most studied subjects in political economy and political science. The key theoretical question is whether incumbent governments can time or structure public finances in ways that improve their chances of reelec......The political budget cycle—how elections affect government fiscal policy—is one of the most studied subjects in political economy and political science. The key theoretical question is whether incumbent governments can time or structure public finances in ways that improve their chances...... on political budget cycles have recently focused on conditions under which such cycles are likely to obtain. Much recent research focuses on subnational settings, allowing comparisons of governments in similar institutional environments, and a consensus on the presences of cycles in public finances...

  3. The politics of researching global health politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rushton, Simon

    2015-01-01

    In this comment, I build on Shiffman’s call for the global health community to more deeply investigate structural and productive power. I highlight two challenges we must grapple with as social scientists carrying out the types of investigation that Shiffman proposes: the politics of challenging the powerful; and the need to investigate types of expertise that have traditionally been thought of as ‘outside’ global health. In doing so, I argue that moving forward with the agenda Shiffman sets out requires social scientists interested in the global politics of health to be reflexive about our own exercise of structural and productive power and the fact that researching global health politics is itself a political undertaking. PMID:25905482

  4. Redistributive Politics in a Political Union

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Citi, Manuele; Justesen, Mogens Kamp

    One of the main functions of centralized budgets in federal and political unions is to act as an equalizing mechanism to support economic cohesion. This is also the case with the European Union’s budget, which operates as a redistributive mechanism that counteracts the cross-national and cross...... remarkably over the last decades. In this paper, we investigate how and why the net fiscal position of each member state towards the rest of the EU changes over time. Using a novel panel dataset (1979-2014), we study how some key national and EU-level political and economic variables affect the EU...... find that the political orientation of national governments does not per se influence redistributive politics with in the EU. However, when the unemployment rate is rising, right-wing governments are able to extract significantly larger budgetary benefits....

  5. Resource rents, power, and political stability

    OpenAIRE

    Kjetil Bjorvatn; Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

    2014-01-01

    We study the association between resource rents and political stability, highlighting the importance of the distribution of political power as a mediating factor. We present a simple theoretical model showing that increased rents are likely to be positively associated with the stability of a powerful incumbent while destabilizing a less powerful incumbent. Our empirical analysis confirms this prediction: Using panel data for more than 120 countries from 1984-2009, our results show that rents ...

  6. How encompassing is the effect of negativity bias on political conservatism?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malka, Ariel; Soto, Christopher J

    2014-06-01

    We argue that the political effects of negativity bias are narrower than Hibbing et al. suggest. Negativity bias reliably predicts social, but not economic, conservatism, and its political effects often vary across levels of political engagement. Thus the role of negativity bias in broad ideological conflict depends on the strategic packaging of economic and social attitudes by political elites.

  7. Telephone Encounters Predict Future High Financial Expenditures in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients: A 3-Year Prospective Observational Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Click, Benjamin; Anderson, Alyce M; Ramos Rivers, Claudia; Koutroubakis, Ioannis E; Hashash, Jana G; Dunn, Michael A; Schwartz, Marc; Swoger, Jason; Barrie, Arthur; Szigethy, Eva; Regueiro, Miguel; Schoen, Robert E; Binion, David G

    2018-04-01

    Telephone activity is essential in management of complex chronic diseases including inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Telephone encounters logged in the electronic medical record have recently been proposed as a surrogate marker of disease activity and impending health care utilization; however, the association between telephone calls and financial expenditures has not been evaluated. We performed a 3-year prospective observational study of telephone encounters logged at a tertiary referral IBD center. We analyzed patient demographics, disease characteristics, comorbidities, clinical activity, and health care financial charges by telephone encounter frequency. Eight hundred one patients met inclusion criteria (52.3% female; mean age, 44.1 y), accounted for 12,669 telephone encounters, and accrued $70,513,449 in charges over 3 years. High telephone encounter frequency was associated with female gender (P=0.003), anxiety/depression (Pfinancial charges the following year after controlling for demographic, utilization, and medication covariates. Increased telephone encounters are associated with significantly higher health care utilization and financial expenditures. Increased call frequency is predictive of future health care spending. Telephone encounters are a useful tool to identify patients at risk of clinical deterioration and large financial expense.

  8. U.S. Geological Survey Water science strategy--observing, understanding, predicting, and delivering water science to the nation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evenson, Eric J.; Orndorff, Randall C.; Blome, Charles D.; Böhlke, John Karl; Hershberger, Paul K.; Langenheim, V.E.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Morlock, Scott E.; Reeves, Howard W.; Verdin, James P.; Weyers, Holly S.; Wood, Tamara M.

    2013-01-01

    This report expands the Water Science Strategy that began with the USGS Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges—U.S. Geological Survey Science in the Decade 2007–2017” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). This report looks at the relevant issues facing society and develops a strategy built around observing, understanding, predicting, and delivering water science for the next 5 to 10 years by building new capabilities, tools, and delivery systems to meet the Nation’s water-resource needs. This report begins by presenting the vision of water science for the USGS and the societal issues that are influenced by, and in turn influence, the water resources of our Nation. The essence of the Water Science Strategy is built on the concept of “water availability,” defined as spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and quality, as related to human and ecosystem needs, as affected by human and natural influences. The report also describes the core capabilities of the USGS in water science—the strengths, partnerships, and science integrity that the USGS has built over its 134-year history. Nine priority actions are presented in the report, which combine and elevate the numerous specific strategic actions listed throughout the report. Priority actions were developed as a means of providing the audience of this report with a list for focused attention, even if resources and time limit the ability of managers to address all of the strategic actions in the report.

  9. Essays on Political Economy of the Media

    OpenAIRE

    Lam, Onyi

    2017-01-01

    My research focuses on understanding the political economy of traditional and newmedia. I study these issues by exploiting natural experiments, employing data techniquesborrowed from machine learning and using both observational data from traditional andnew sources.

  10. The Game Frame and Political Efficacy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Tue

    2012-01-01

    Several observational and experimental studies have confirmed the ‘spiral of cynicism’ hypothesis: the tendency of the news media to cover politics through a game frame, which focuses on political strategy instead of political issues, leads to cynicism about election campaigns and politicians amo...... on a survey among the electorate and a content analysis of political coverage in newspapers. The study shows that exposure to the game frame is indeed associated with lower levels of internal efficacy, even when controlling for potentially confounding variables.......Several observational and experimental studies have confirmed the ‘spiral of cynicism’ hypothesis: the tendency of the news media to cover politics through a game frame, which focuses on political strategy instead of political issues, leads to cynicism about election campaigns and politicians among...... the electorate. However, such cynicism may in itself be somewhat inconsequential, and so this article suggests that we move beyond cynicism regarding specific electoral campaigns or politicians, and that we turn our attention towards political efficacy. This is done in an empirical study, which is based...

  11. Political consumer behaviour among university students in Brazil and Germany: The role of contextual features and core political values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotzur, Patrick F; Torres, Cláudio V; Kedzior, Karina K; Boehnke, Klaus

    2017-04-01

    This study investigates the relationship between political consumerism and core political values (CPVs) among university students in Brazil (N = 414) and Germany (N = 222). Despite the prerequisite to endorse values that are compatible with political consumerism, contextual features of one's immediate environment might affect overall levels of political consumerism. Our results show that political consumerism is significantly associated with higher income in Brazil (but not in Germany). After controlling for income, political consumerism was practised more frequently in Germany than in Brazil, in urban compared with rural areas, and was not dependent on gender. The urban-rural split was stronger in Brazil than in Germany. These results confirm our hypothesis that contextual features are associated with political consumerism. Furthermore, the political value Equality positively predicted political consumerism in both countries. In contrast, Traditional Morality and support of Free Enterprise negatively predicted political consumerism, although the effect sizes of these relationships were only small. These results suggest that political consumerism among university students is widespread in Germany but not in Brazil. Interestingly, regardless of its low prevalence in Brazil, political consumerism is positively associated with the CPV of Equality among university students in both countries. © 2015 International Union of Psychological Science.

  12. School of Political Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. D. Voskresensky

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Out of all the departments of political sciences in Russia - the Department at MGIMO-University is probably the oldest one. In fact it is very young. While MGIMO-University is celebrating its 70th anniversary the Department of Political Sciences turns 15. Despite the fact that political analyst is a relatively new profession in Russia, it acquired a legal standing only in the 1990s, the political science school at MGIMO-University is almost as old as the university itself. Unlike many other universities, focused on the training teachers of political science or campaign managers MGIMO-University has developed its own unique political science school of "full cycle", where students grow into political sciences from a zero level up to the highest qualifications as teachers and researchers, and campaign managers, consultants and practitioners. The uniqueness of the school of political science at MGIMO-University allows its institutional incarnation -the Department of Political Science - to offer prospective studentsa training in a wide range of popular specialties and specializations, while ensuring a deep theoretical and practical basis of the training. Studying at MGIMO-University traditionally includes enhanced linguistic component (at least two foreign languages. For students of international relations and political science learning foreign languages is particularly important.It allows not only to communicate, but also to produce expertise and knowledge in foreign languages.

  13. Management of Technology - a political process approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koch, Christian

    1999-01-01

    Most management of technology writings fail to address enterprise developments as political processes, where visions, coalitions and emergence are central features. The paper report of a participants observation study of management of technology processes.......Most management of technology writings fail to address enterprise developments as political processes, where visions, coalitions and emergence are central features. The paper report of a participants observation study of management of technology processes....

  14. Serum Cystatin C Predicts AKI and the Prognosis of Patients in Coronary Care Unit: a Prospective, Observational Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yugang Hu

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: Acute Kidney Injury (AKI is a serious clinical state associated with high morbidity and mortality, particularly in critical ill patients. We investigated the hypothesis that serum Cystatin C (sCysC is a good predictor for AKI and may affect the short-term prognosis of coronary care unit (CCU patients. Methods: In this prospective, observational study, we screened 412 adults admitted to the CCU from January 1, 2014 to June 1, 2015 at Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University. Serum samples were obtained at the time of admission, and sCysC was quantified through nephelometry. AKI was defined based on KDIGO-AKI criteria. After the patients’ hospital discharge, the survivors in this study were followed up for up to 2 years. The primary endpoint was the incidence of AKI stratified by severity stage, while the second endpoints included 2-year mortality, rehospitalization and failure in renal recovery rates, as well as the progression of AKI to CKD. Results: According to the KDIGO-AKI criteria, AKI occurred in 130 (31.6% patients. After multivariate adjustments, the highest quartile of sCysC was associated with a 9-fold increased risk of incident AKI compared with the lowest quartile. For predicting AKI, sCysC [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC=0.842] outperformed β2-micro globulin (AUC=0.813 and the clinical model (AUC=0.777, and a cutoff of 1.255 mg/L yielded good sensitivity and specificity. After a median 19.8-month follow-up, 112 (27.2% patients died within 2 years after admission. The sCysC independently predicted the risk of 2-year mortality [adjusted odds ratio (OR, 4.955; 95% confidence interval (95% CI, 2.853 to 8.603] and rehospitalization (OR, 3.128; 95% CI, 2.011 to 4.867, as well as renal recovery failure (OR, 3.618, 95% CI, 1.753 to 7.463. Conclusions: Serum CysC is a strong predictor of AKI and the short-term prognosis of CCU patients.

  15. Moral foundations and political attitudes: The moderating role of political sophistication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milesi, Patrizia

    2016-08-01

    Political attitudes can be associated with moral concerns. This research investigated whether people's level of political sophistication moderates this association. Based on the Moral Foundations Theory, this article examined whether political sophistication moderates the extent to which reliance on moral foundations, as categories of moral concerns, predicts judgements about policy positions. With this aim, two studies examined four policy positions shown by previous research to be best predicted by the endorsement of Sanctity, that is, the category of moral concerns focused on the preservation of physical and spiritual purity. The results showed that reliance on Sanctity predicted political sophisticates' judgements, as opposed to those of unsophisticates, on policy positions dealing with equal rights for same-sex and unmarried couples and with euthanasia. Political sophistication also interacted with Fairness endorsement, which includes moral concerns for equal treatment of everybody and reciprocity, in predicting judgements about equal rights for unmarried couples, and interacted with reliance on Authority, which includes moral concerns for obedience and respect for traditional authorities, in predicting opposition to stem cell research. Those findings suggest that, at least for these particular issues, endorsement of moral foundations can be associated with political attitudes more strongly among sophisticates than unsophisticates. © 2015 International Union of Psychological Science.

  16. Establishing Political Deliberation Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rose, Jeremy; Sæbø, Øystein

    2008-01-01

    The extension and transformation of political participation is dependent on widespread deliberation supported by information and communication technologies.  The most commonly found examples of these eParticipation systems are political discussion forums.  Though much of the discussion...... of these technologies is conducted in the eGovernment and (particularly) the eDemocracy literature, political discussion forums present a distinct set of design and management challenges which relate directly to IS concerns. In this article we analyze problems in establishing political deliberation systems under five...... headings: stakeholder engagement, web platform design, web platform management, political process re-shaping and evaluation and improvement. We review the existing literature and present a longitudinal case study of a political discussion forum: the Norwegian DemokratiTorget (Democracy Square).  We define...

  17. Comparing Political Journalism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Comparing Political Journalism is a systematic, in-depth study of the factors that shape and influence political news coverage today. Using techniques drawn from the growing field of comparative political communication, an international group of contributors analyse political news content drawn...... Comparing Political Journalism offers an unparalleled scope in assessing the implications for the ongoing transformation of Western media systems, and addresses core concepts of central importance to students and scholars of political communication world-wide....... from newspapers, television news, and news websites from 16 countries, to assess what kinds of media systems are most conducive to producing quality journalism. Underpinned by key conceptual themes, such as the role that the media are expected to play in democracies and quality of coverage...

  18. Aespoe HRL - Geoscientific evaluation 1997/3. Results from pre-investigation and detailed site characterization. Comparison of predictions and observations. Geology and mechanical stability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stanfors, R. [RS Consulting, Lund (Sweden); Olsson, Paer [Skanska AB Stockholm (Sweden); Stille, H. [Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden)

    1997-05-01

    Prior to excavation of the laboratory in 1990 predictions were made for the excavation phase. The predictions concern five key issues: Geology, groundwater flow, groundwater chemistry, transport of solutes, and mechanical stability. Comparisons between predictions and observations were made during excavation in order to verify the reliability of the pre-investigations. This report presents a comparison between the geological and mechanical stability predictions and observations and an evaluation of data and investigation methods used for the 700-2874 m section of the tunnel. The report is specially highlighting the following conclusions: It is possible to localize major fracture zones during the pre-investigation at shallow (<200 m) depths; A number of minor fracture zones striking NNW-NNE were predicted to be hydraulically important and penetrate the southern area. A number of narrow fracture zone indications - 0.1-1 m wide - striking WNW-NE were mapped in the tunnel and pre-grouted sections confirm hydraulic conductors; It has not been possible to confirm the gently dipping zone EW-5, which was predicted as `possible`, with data from the tunnel; Predictions of the amount of different rock types were generally reliable as regards the major rocks, but the prediction of the distribution in space were poor as regards the minor rock types; The prediction of rock stress orientation corresponds well to the outcome; The prediction of rock quality for the tunnel, while applying the RMR-system, shows good correspondence to the observations made in the tunnel. 59 refs, 51 figs, 21 tabs.

  19. Chaos theory in politics

    CERN Document Server

    Erçetin, Şefika; Tekin, Ali

    2014-01-01

    The present work investigates global politics and political implications of social science and management with the aid of the latest complexity and chaos theories. Until now, deterministic chaos and nonlinear analysis have not been a focal point in this area of research. This book remedies this deficiency by utilizing these methods in the analysis of the subject matter. The authors provide the reader a detailed analysis on politics and its associated applications with the help of chaos theory, in a single edited volume.

  20. The Politics of Dissent

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bak Jørgensen, Martin; Agustin, Oscar Garcia

    2015-01-01

    In Politics of Dissent the framework for analysing politics of dissent is outlined. The outlined framework problematizes the conventional understandings of dissent as something characterising individual historical figures. The chapter provides both a theoretical underpinning of dissent as well...... as an approach to investigate the current contestations taking place on a global level. Politics of dissent entails the questioning of consensus. It conceptualises dissent as a collective process taking place on everyday level. It conceptualises moments of dissent. Finally it investigates the emergent...

  1. Mapping presence and predicting phenological status of invasive buffelgrass in southern Arizona using MODIS, climate and citizen science observation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Walker, Jessica; Skirvin, Susan M.; Patrick-Birdwell, Caroline; Weltzin, Jake F.; Raichle, Helen

    2016-01-01

    The increasing spread and abundance of an invasive perennial grass, buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare), represents a critical threat to the native vegetation communities of the Sonoran desert in southern Arizona, USA, where buffelgrass eradication is a high priority for resource managers. Herbicidal treatment of buffelgrass is most effective when the vegetation is actively growing, but the remoteness of infestations and the erratic timing and length of the species’ growth periods confound effective treatment. The goal of our research is to promote buffelgrass management by using remote sensing data to detect where the invasive plants are located and when they are photosynthetically active. We integrated citizen scientist observations of buffelgrass phenology in the Tucson, Arizona area with PRISM precipitation data, eight-day composites of 250-m Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery, and aerially-mapped polygons of buffelgrass presence to understand dynamics and relationships between precipitation and the timing and amount of buffelgrass greenness from 2011 to 2013. Our results show that buffelgrass responds quickly to antecedent rainfall: in pixels containing buffelgrass, higher correlations (R2 > 0.5) typically occur after two cumulative eight-day periods of rain, whereas in pixels dominated by native vegetation, four prior 8-day periods are required to reach that threshold. Using the new suite of phenometrics introduced here—Climate Landscape Response metrics—we accurately predicted the location of 49% to 55% of buffelgrass patches in Saguaro National Park. These metrics and the suggested guidelines for their use can be employed by resource managers to treat buffelgrass during optimal time periods.

  2. Leveraging Open Standard Interfaces in Providing Efficient Discovery, Retrieval, and Information of NASA-Sponsored Observations and Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, M.; Alameh, N.; Bambacus, M.

    2006-05-01

    at http://esg.gsfc.nasa.gov) acts as a flexible and searchable registry of NASA-related resources (files, services, models, etc) and allows scientists, decision makers and others to discover and retrieve a wide variety of observations and predictions of natural and human phenomena related to Earth Science from NASA and other sources. To support the goals of the Applied Sciences national applications, GIO staff is also working with the national applications communities to identify opportunities where open standards-based discovery and access to NASA data can enhance the decision support process of the national applications. This paper describes the work performed to-date on that front, and summarizes key findings in terms of identified data sources and benefiting national applications. The paper also highlights the challenges encountered in making NASA-related data accessible in a cross-cutting fashion and identifies areas where interoperable approaches can be leveraged.

  3. Leveraging Web Services in Providing Efficient Discovery, Retrieval, and Integration of NASA-Sponsored Observations and Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bambacus, M.; Alameh, N.; Cole, M.

    2006-12-01

    at http://esg.gsfc.nasa.gov) acts as a flexible and searchable registry of NASA-related resources (files, services, models, etc) and allows scientists, decision makers and others to discover and retrieve a wide variety of observations and predictions of natural and human phenomena related to Earth Science from NASA and other sources. To support the goals of the Applied Sciences national applications, GIO staff is also working with the national applications communities to identify opportunities where open standards-based discovery and access to NASA data can enhance the decision support process of the national applications. This paper describes the work performed to-date on that front, and summarizes key findings in terms of identified data sources and benefiting national applications. The paper also highlights the challenges encountered in making NASA-related data accessible in a cross-cutting fashion and identifies areas where interoperable approaches can be leveraged.

  4. The politics of health sector reform in developing countries: three cases of pharmaceutical policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reich, M R

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines the political dynamics of health sector reform in poor countries, through a comparative study of pharmaceutical policy reform in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and the Philippines. The paper first reviews five reasons why policy reform is political. It then presents three political economic models of the policy reform process: the political will, political factions, and political survival models. Next, the paper describes the three cases of national pharmaceutical policy reform, and identifies common conditions that made these reforms politically feasible. The paper's analysis suggests that health sector reform is feasible at certain definable, and perhaps predictable, political moments, especially in the early periods of new regimes. The most important and manipulable political factors are: political timing, which provides opportunities for policy entrepreneurs to introduce their ideas into public debate, and political management of group competition, which allows leaders to control the political effects of distributional consequences and protect the regime's stability. A strong and narrow political coalition improves the capacity of political leaders to resist the pressures of concentrated economic costs (both inside and outside national boundaries). The paper argues that for reform to succeed, policy-makers need effective methods to analyze relevant political conditions and shape key political factors in favor of policy reform. The method of Political Mapping is briefly introduced as a technique that can help policy-makers in analyzing and managing the political dimensions of policy reform and in improving the political feasibility of reform.

  5. Astronomy and Politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, John M.

    The relationship between astronomy and politics is a complex but important part of understanding the practice of astronomy throughout history. This chapter explores some of the ways that astronomy, astrology, and politics have interacted, placing particular focus on the way that astronomy and astrology have been used for political purposes by both people in power and people who wish to influence a ruler's policy. Also discussed are the effects that politics has had on the development of astronomy and, in particular, upon the recording and preservation of astronomical knowledge.

  6. Defining political community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sladeček Michal M.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the concept of political community, its constitution and value. The starting point is that the concept of community is not sufficiently recognized in modern political theories, as well as in contemporary liberal theory. In the last two decades communitarian and republican political theory attempted to revitalize this notion. The first part of the paper elaborates on the polemics between these three theoretical orientations. The concluding part examines the possibilities and prospect for stable political community in conditions of pluralism of particular social communities and ethnocultural heterogeneity.

  7. Cosmopolitan political science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grande, Edgar

    2006-03-01

    Until recently, the term cosmopolitism could rarely be found in modern political science literature. It was only in the 1990s that the term was rediscovered by political scientists in the critical discourse on globalization. In this article, I will explore the full potential of cosmopolitism as an analytical concept for empirical political science. I will argue that the concept of cosmopolitism should not be restricted to the analysis of global politics. Indeed, cosmopolitism has much more to offer for political scientists. Properly understood, it enables--and necessitates--a re-invention of political science in the age of globalization, comparable to the behavioural revolution in political science in the 1950s. Such a paradigmatic shift should be based on a twofold transformation of existing disciplinary boundaries: A removal of the boundary between national (and comparative) and international politics on the one hand; and a re-definition of the boundaries between empirical and normative approaches on the other. As a result, cosmopolitism may serve as a new, critical theory of politics based on the integration of hitherto separated fields and sub-fields.

  8. Testing predictions of forest succession using long-term measurements: 100 yrs of observations in the Oregon Cascades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark E. Harmon; Robert J. Pabst

    2015-01-01

    Question: Many predictions about forest succession have been based on chronosequences. Are these predictions – at the population, community and ecosystemlevel – consistent with long-termmeasurements in permanent plots? Location: Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco dominated forest in western Oregon, US.Methods: Over a 100-yr period,...

  9. Estimating Time-Varying PCB Exposures Using Person-Specific Predictions to Supplement Measured Values: A Comparison of Observed and Predicted Values in Two Cohorts of Norwegian Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nøst, Therese Haugdahl; Breivik, Knut; Wania, Frank; Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning

    2016-03-01

    Studies on the health effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) call for an understanding of past and present human exposure. Time-resolved mechanistic models may supplement information on concentrations in individuals obtained from measurements and/or statistical approaches if they can be shown to reproduce empirical data. Here, we evaluated the capability of one such mechanistic model to reproduce measured PCB concentrations in individual Norwegian women. We also assessed individual life-course concentrations. Concentrations of four PCB congeners in pregnant (n = 310, sampled in 2007-2009) and postmenopausal (n = 244, 2005) women were compared with person-specific predictions obtained using CoZMoMAN, an emission-based environmental fate and human food-chain bioaccumulation model. Person-specific predictions were also made using statistical regression models including dietary and lifestyle variables and concentrations. CoZMoMAN accurately reproduced medians and ranges of measured concentrations in the two study groups. Furthermore, rank correlations between measurements and predictions from both CoZMoMAN and regression analyses were strong (Spearman's r > 0.67). Precision in quartile assignments from predictions was strong overall as evaluated by weighted Cohen's kappa (> 0.6). Simulations indicated large inter-individual differences in concentrations experienced in the past. The mechanistic model reproduced all measurements of PCB concentrations within a factor of 10, and subject ranking and quartile assignments were overall largely consistent, although they were weak within each study group. Contamination histories for individuals predicted by CoZMoMAN revealed variation between study subjects, particularly in the timing of peak concentrations. Mechanistic models can provide individual PCB exposure metrics that could serve as valuable supplements to measurements.

  10. Application of the nonlinear time series prediction method of genetic algorithm for forecasting surface wind of point station in the South China Sea with scatterometer observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhong Jian; Dong Gang; Sun Yimei; Zhang Zhaoyang; Wu Yuqin

    2016-01-01

    The present work reports the development of nonlinear time series prediction method of genetic algorithm (GA) with singular spectrum analysis (SSA) for forecasting the surface wind of a point station in the South China Sea (SCS) with scatterometer observations. Before the nonlinear technique GA is used for forecasting the time series of surface wind, the SSA is applied to reduce the noise. The surface wind speed and surface wind components from scatterometer observations at three locations in the SCS have been used to develop and test the technique. The predictions have been compared with persistence forecasts in terms of root mean square error. The predicted surface wind with GA and SSA made up to four days (longer for some point station) in advance have been found to be significantly superior to those made by persistence model. This method can serve as a cost-effective alternate prediction technique for forecasting surface wind of a point station in the SCS basin. (paper)

  11. Morality and politics: Comparing alternate theories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Andrew; Vaisey, Stephen

    2015-09-01

    Debates about the American "culture wars" have led scholars to develop several theories relating morality to political attitudes and behaviors. However, researchers have not adequately compared these theories, nor have they examined the overall contribution of morality to explaining political variation. This study uses nationally representative data to compare the utility of 19 moral constructs from four research traditions - associated with the work of Hunter, Lakoff, Haidt, and Schwartz - for predicting political orientation (liberalism/conservatism). Results indicate that morality explains a third of the variation in political orientation - more than basic demographic and religious predictors - but that no one theory provides a fully adequate explanation of this phenomenon. Instead, political orientation is best predicted by selected moral constructs that are unique to each of the four traditions, and by two moral constructs that crosscut them. Future work should investigate how these moral constructs can be synthesized to create a more comprehensive theory of morality and politics. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Mortality and One-Year Functional Outcome in Elderly and Very Old Patients with Severe Traumatic Brain Injuries: Observed and Predicted

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecilie Røe

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to evaluate mortality and functional outcome in old and very old patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI and compare to the predicted outcome according to the internet based CRASH (Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head injury model based prediction, from the Medical Research Council (MRC. Methods. Prospective, national multicenter study including patients with severe TBI ≥65 years. Predicted mortality and outcome were calculated based on clinical information (CRASH basic (age, GCS score, and pupil reactivity to light, as well as with additional CT findings (CRASH CT. Observed 14-day mortality and favorable/unfavorable outcome according to the Glasgow Outcome Scale at one year was compared to the predicted outcome according to the CRASH models. Results. 97 patients, mean age 75 (SD 7 years, 64% men, were included. Two patients were lost to follow-up; 48 died within 14 days. The predicted versus the observed odds ratio (OR for mortality was 2.65. Unfavorable outcome (GOSE < 5 was observed at one year follow-up in 72% of patients. The CRASH models predicted unfavorable outcome in all patients. Conclusion. The CRASH model overestimated mortality and unfavorable outcome in old and very old Norwegian patients with severe TBI.

  13. Mortality and One-Year Functional Outcome in Elderly and Very Old Patients with Severe Traumatic Brain Injuries: Observed and Predicted

    Science.gov (United States)

    Røe, Cecilie; Skandsen, Toril; Manskow, Unn; Ader, Tiina; Anke, Audny

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate mortality and functional outcome in old and very old patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) and compare to the predicted outcome according to the internet based CRASH (Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head injury) model based prediction, from the Medical Research Council (MRC). Methods. Prospective, national multicenter study including patients with severe TBI ≥65 years. Predicted mortality and outcome were calculated based on clinical information (CRASH basic) (age, GCS score, and pupil reactivity to light), as well as with additional CT findings (CRASH CT). Observed 14-day mortality and favorable/unfavorable outcome according to the Glasgow Outcome Scale at one year was compared to the predicted outcome according to the CRASH models. Results. 97 patients, mean age 75 (SD 7) years, 64% men, were included. Two patients were lost to follow-up; 48 died within 14 days. The predicted versus the observed odds ratio (OR) for mortality was 2.65. Unfavorable outcome (GOSE < 5) was observed at one year follow-up in 72% of patients. The CRASH models predicted unfavorable outcome in all patients. Conclusion. The CRASH model overestimated mortality and unfavorable outcome in old and very old Norwegian patients with severe TBI. PMID:26688614

  14. Means-Tested Public Assistance Programs and Adolescent Political Socialization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Carolyn Y; Hope, Elan C

    2017-07-01

    In recent years, scholars have pointed to the politically demobilizing effects of means-tested assistance programs on recipients. In this study, we bridge the insights from policy feedback literature and adolescent political socialization research to examine how receiving means-tested programs shapes parent influence on adolescent political participation. We argue that there are differences in pathways to political participation through parent political socialization and youth internal efficacy beliefs for adolescents from households that do or do not receive means-tested assistance. Using data from a nationally representative sample of 536 Black, Latino, and White adolescents (50.8% female), we find that adolescents from means-tested assistance households report less parent political socialization and political participation. For all youth, parent political socialization predicts adolescent political participation. Internal political efficacy is a stronger predictor of political participation for youth from a non-means-tested assistance household than it is for youth from a household receiving means-tested assistance. These findings provide some evidence of differential paths to youth political participation via exposure to means-tested programs.

  15. It's complicated: Facebook users' political participation in the 2008 election.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitak, Jessica; Zube, Paul; Smock, Andrew; Carr, Caleb T; Ellison, Nicole; Lampe, Cliff

    2011-03-01

    In the 2008 U.S. presidential election, social network sites such as Facebook allowed users to share their political beliefs, support specific candidates, and interact with others on political issues. But do political activities on Facebook affect political participation among young voters, a group traditionally perceived as apathetic in regard to civic engagement? Or do these activities represent another example of feel-good participation that has little real-world impact, a concept often referred to as "slacktivism"? Results from a survey of undergraduate students (N = 683) at a large public university in the Midwestern United States conducted in the month prior to the election found that students tend to engage in lightweight political participation both on Facebook and in other venues. Furthermore, two OLS regressions found that political activity on Facebook (e.g., posting a politically oriented status update, becoming a "fan" of a candidate) is a significant predictor of other forms of political participation (e.g., volunteering for an organizing, signing a paper or online petition), and that a number of factors--including intensity of Facebook use and the political activity users see their friends performing on the site--predict political activity on Facebook. Students' perceptions regarding the appropriateness of political activity on Facebook, as well as the specific kinds of political activities they engaged in and witnessed within the site, were also explored.

  16. Cognitive Ability, Principled Reasoning and Political Tolerance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hebbelstrup Rye Rasmussen, Stig; Nørgaard, Asbjørn Sonne

    Individuals are not equally politically tolerant. To explain why, individual differences in emotions and threat have received much scholarly attention in recent years. However, extant research also shows that psychological dispositions, habitual cognitive styles, ideological orientation...... and ‘principled reasoning’ influence political tolerance judgments. The extent to which cognitive ability plays a role has not been entertained even if the capacity to think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas and apply abstract ideas to concrete situations is inherent to both principled tolerance judgment...... and cognitive ability. Cognitive ability, we argue and show, adds to the etiology of political tolerance. In Danish and American samples cognitive ability strongly predicts political tolerance after taking habitual cognitive styles (as measured by personality traits), education, social ideology, and feelings...

  17. Usage of marketing in politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marić Ivana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Multi-party political system led to competition between political parties which caused the need for marketing in politics that improves political reputation. Politics, based on rich experience of political practice, used existing, developed methods and techniques of commercial marketing. Political marketing openly admits that politics and politicians are simply goods that are being sold on a political market. Political marketing is a whole way of operation by political parties which ask these questions: how do the voters choose; what affects their preference and how that preference can be influenced. Usage of political marketing in Bosnia and Herzegovina is still not on a satisfactory level but the knowledge about the importance of political marketing is increasing.

  18. Predicting extreme rainfall events over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia: Impact of data assimilation with conventional and satellite observations

    KAUST Repository

    Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu; Srinivas, C.V.; Langodan, Sabique; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2015-01-01

    The impact of variational data assimilation for predicting two heavy rainfall events that caused devastating floods in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia is studied using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. On 25 November 2009 and 26 January 2011

  19. Centre for Political and

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    and definitions will be published and the data translated into the official ... The Centre provides a terminological and subject-related service to lecturers and ... postgraduate students in international politics, political studies and .... obtain financial contributions (cf. .... making of authoritative and enforceable rules (laws) for.

  20. Seizing Political Opportunity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Citi, Manuele; Justesen, Mogens Kamp

    2016-01-01

    Political actors need to be nimble and respond to the opportunity to reform old policies and initiate new ones. The article looks at how the European Commission takes advantage of politically opportune moments (the ‘gridlock interval’) in the European Parliament to put forward new legislation...

  1. ICTs and Political Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbin, Alice; Courtright, Christina; Davis, Leah

    2004-01-01

    Presents a literature review that covers the following topics related to information and communications technologies (ICTs): (1) theories of ICTs and how they frame political life; (2) normative democratic theory and concepts; (3) e-political life; and (4) research on e-government, e-governance, and e-democracy; (Contains 276 references.) (MES)

  2. Principals' Perceptions of Politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tooms, Autumn K.; Kretovics, Mark A.; Smialek, Charles A.

    2007-01-01

    This study is an effort to examine principals' perceptions of workplace politics and its influence on their productivity and efficacy. A survey was used to explore the perceptions of current school administrators with regard to workplace politics. The instrument was disseminated to principals serving public schools in one Midwestern state in the…

  3. Happiness and Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Landes, Xavier

    2013-01-01

    Over the last thirty years, happiness research in psychology, economics and philosophy has been discussing the proper meaning of happiness and its main determinants. Moreover, the idea has spread within academic and political circles that it may be legitimate for institutions to engage in “politics...... of happiness”. This article presents a critique of the project of promoting happiness through public policies....

  4. Political Communication with Animals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijer, E.

    2013-01-01

    In this article I sketch the outlines of a theory of political human-animal conversations, based on ideas about language that I borrow from Ludwig Wittgenstein’s later work, in particular his notion of language-games. I present this theory as a supplement to the political theory of animal rights Sue

  5. The Politics of Encyclopaedias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fozooni, Babak

    2012-01-01

    The paper assesses the political credibility of three encyclopaedias (Encyclopaedia Britannica, Encyclopedia of Marxism and Wikipedia) in relation to three chosen topics (Friedrich Engels's biography; the political philosophy of fascism; and, the discipline of social psychology). I was interested in discerning how entries are represented and…

  6. Comparative Political Communication Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vreese, C.H.; Kenski, K.; Jamieson, K.H.

    2017-01-01

    This chapter provides an overview of comparative political communication research (CPCR). CPCR is a growing field since there is wide acknowledgement that many questions are not answered satisfactorily with single case studies. The chapter explains why political communication researchers should care

  7. Political Animals: The Paradox of Ecofeminist Politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandilands, Catriona

    1994-01-01

    Analyzes the paradox between the careful work of rigorous political analysis and philosophy and a desire for mystery and the experience of awe and wildness that demands putting aside careful reasoning and the sensing of nature in an altogether different way. (LZ)

  8. Civic Political Culture, Participatory Governance and Political ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prof

    This study x-rayed the significance of civic political culture on participatory governance and its .... The literature on participatory governance theory assumes that deliberation is key to effective .... factors and capture all considerations involved in making certain that citizen interests .... vital element in any organization.

  9. Senturion: A Predictive Political Simulation Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Abdollahian, Mark; Baranick, Michael; Efird, Brian; Kugler, Jacek

    2006-01-01

    .... With an ever-increasing spectrum of threats, more objective analytic capabilities that draw on all-source intelligence and advances in computational methods are needed to help provide insight and aid...

  10. Socrates: Platonic Political Ideal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher P. Long

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This essay articulates the differences and suggests the similarities between the practices of Socratic political speaking and those of Platonic political writing. The essay delineates Socratic speaking and Platonic writing as both erotically oriented toward ideals capable of transforming the lives of individuals and their relationships with one another. Besides it shows that in the Protagoras the practices of Socratic political speaking are concerned less with Protagoras than with the individual young man, Hippocrates. In the Phaedo, this ideal of a Socrates is amplified in such a way that Platonic writing itself emerges as capable of doing with readers what Socratic speaking did with those he encountered. Socrates is the Platonic political ideal. The result is a picture of the transformative political power of Socratic speaking and Platonic writing both.

  11. The Politics of Dependence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cockburn, Patrick Joseph

    The central claim of this book is that thinking about ‘dependence’ should be at the core of political theory principally because it helps us to think about issues of economic justice. Unlike political theories that either condemn or celebrate dependence, the book argues that dependence...... is an inescapable fact of social life, neither good nor bad in itself. The real political issues are about how we as a society organise and judge various forms of dependence. And this is, in fact, what much political debate is about if we dig beneath the surface. On the one hand, we disagree about how we should...... organise vulnerability; on the other hand, we disagree about who we should condemn as parasitical. Vulnerability and parasitism are thus key concepts for understanding political debate about forms of dependence. Showing the tension between these two sides to the problem of economic dependence...

  12. Political Attitudes Develop Independently of Personality Traits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatemi, Peter K.; Verhulst, Brad

    2015-01-01

    The primary assumption within the recent personality and political orientations literature is that personality traits cause people to develop political attitudes. In contrast, research relying on traditional psychological and developmental theories suggests the relationship between most personality dimensions and political orientations are either not significant or weak. Research from behavioral genetics suggests the covariance between personality and political preferences is not causal, but due to a common, latent genetic factor that mutually influences both. The contradictory assumptions and findings from these research streams have yet to be resolved. This is in part due to the reliance on cross-sectional data and the lack of longitudinal genetically informative data. Here, using two independent longitudinal genetically informative samples, we examine the joint development of personality traits and attitude dimensions to explore the underlying causal mechanisms that drive the relationship between these features and provide a first step in resolving the causal question. We find change in personality over a ten-year period does not predict change in political attitudes, which does not support a causal relationship between personality traits and political attitudes as is frequently assumed. Rather, political attitudes are often more stable than the key personality traits assumed to be predicting them. Finally, the results from our genetic models find that no additional variance is accounted for by the causal pathway from personality traits to political attitudes. Our findings remain consistent with the original construction of the five-factor model of personality and developmental theories on attitude formation, but challenge recent work in this area. PMID:25734580

  13. Political attitudes develop independently of personality traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatemi, Peter K; Verhulst, Brad

    2015-01-01

    The primary assumption within the recent personality and political orientations literature is that personality traits cause people to develop political attitudes. In contrast, research relying on traditional psychological and developmental theories suggests the relationship between most personality dimensions and political orientations are either not significant or weak. Research from behavioral genetics suggests the covariance between personality and political preferences is not causal, but due to a common, latent genetic factor that mutually influences both. The contradictory assumptions and findings from these research streams have yet to be resolved. This is in part due to the reliance on cross-sectional data and the lack of longitudinal genetically informative data. Here, using two independent longitudinal genetically informative samples, we examine the joint development of personality traits and attitude dimensions to explore the underlying causal mechanisms that drive the relationship between these features and provide a first step in resolving the causal question. We find change in personality over a ten-year period does not predict change in political attitudes, which does not support a causal relationship between personality traits and political attitudes as is frequently assumed. Rather, political attitudes are often more stable than the key personality traits assumed to be predicting them. Finally, the results from our genetic models find that no additional variance is accounted for by the causal pathway from personality traits to political attitudes. Our findings remain consistent with the original construction of the five-factor model of personality and developmental theories on attitude formation, but challenge recent work in this area.

  14. A narrower scope or a clearer lens for personality? Examining sources of observers' advantages over self-reports for predicting performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connelly, Brian S; Hülsheger, Ute R

    2012-06-01

    Emerging studies have shown that observers' ratings of personality predict performance behaviors better than do self-ratings. However, it is unclear whether these predictive advantages stem from (a) use of observers who have a frame of reference more closely aligned with the criterion ("narrower scope") or (b) observers having greater accuracy than targets themselves ("clearer lens"). In a primary study of 291 raters of 97 targets, we found predictive advantages even when observers were personal acquaintances who knew targets only outside of the work context. Integrating these findings with previous meta-analyses showed that colleagues' unique perspectives did not predict incrementally beyond commonly held trait perceptions across all raters (except for openness) and that self-raters who overestimate their agreeableness and conscientiousness perform worse on the job. Broadly, our results suggest that observers have clearer lenses for viewing targets' personality traits, and we discuss the theoretical implications of these findings for studying and measuring personality. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Personality © 2011, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Political Differences in Past, Present, and Future Life Satisfaction: Republicans Are More Sensitive than Democrats to Political Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandel, David R.; Omorogbe, Philip

    2014-01-01

    Previous research finds that Republicans report being happier or more satisfied with their lives than Democrats. Using representative American samples from 2002, 2005, 2007, 2009, and 2010, we tested a Person × Situation interactionist account in which political affiliation (Democrat, Republican) and political climate (favorable when the president in office is of the same party) are proposed to affect past, present, and anticipated future life satisfaction. Meta-analyses of related tests of key hypotheses confirmed that (a) life satisfaction was greater when the political climate was favorable rather than unfavorable and (b) Republicans were more sensitive to political climate than Democrats. As predicted, Republicans also were more politically polarized than Democrats. Taken together, the findings indicate that, compared to Democrats, Republicans are more apt to self-identify in political terms, and core aspects of their subjective well-being are more easily affected by the outcome of political events. PMID:24901253

  16. Social Media Use and Online Political Participation Among College Students During the US Election 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongwei “Chris” Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A total of 4,556 US college students were surveyed immediately after Election 2012 to investigate what social media–related psychological and behavioral factors predicted their online political participation. Structural equation modeling and hierarchical multiple regression results showed that online social capital, political self-efficacy, and Facebook group participation were positive predictors of online political participation, while social trust did not directly influence online political participation. General political use of Facebook and Twitter was a positive predictor of online political participation; however, extensive Facebook and Twitter use was a negative predictor. Implications for research and political practice are discussed.

  17. Student life - Making politics matter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCullough, Siobhan

    2014-12-02

    'What has politics got to do with nursing?' This is a question I hear often as a lecturer in nursing with a specialist interest in politics, as is the comment: 'I did not come into nursing to learn about politics.'

  18. Particle deposition from aqueous suspensions in turbulent pipe flow - a comparison of observed deposition rates and predicted arrival rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodliffe, R.S.

    1979-11-01

    At the present time, there appear to be only four adequately controlled and characterised experimental studies of particle deposition from single phase water in turbulent pipe flow. These are used to illustrate the ranges of applicability of methods for predicting particle arrival rates at tube walls. Arrival rates are predicted from mass transfer correlations and the theory of Reeks and Skyrme (1976) when transport is limited by Brownian diffusion and inertial behaviour, respectively. The regimes in which finite particle size limits the application of these methods are defined and preliminary consideration is given to the conditions under which gravitational settling may make a contribution to deposition in vertically mounted tubes. (author)

  19. Digital Trace Data in the Study of Public Opinion : An Indicator of Attention Toward Politics Rather Than Political Support

    OpenAIRE

    Jungherr, Andreas; Schoen, Harald; Posegga, Oliver; Jürgens, Pascal

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we examine the relationship between metrics documenting politics-related Twitter activity with election results and trends in opinion polls. Various studies have proposed the possibility of inferring public opinion based on digital trace data collected on Twitter and even the possibility to predict election results based on aggregates of mentions of political actors. Yet, a systematic attempt at a validation of Twitter as an indicator for political support is lacking. In this...

  20. The Use of the Framingham Equation to Predict Myocardial Infarctions in HIV-infected Patients: Comparison with Observed Events in the D:A:D Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Law, MG; Friis-Møller, Nina; El-Sadr, WM

    2006-01-01

    and predicted rates of MI increased in a parallel fashion with increased CART duration, suggesting that the observed increase in risk of MI may at least in part be explained by CART-induced changes in conventional risk factors. These findings provide guidance in terms of choosing lifestyle or therapeutic...

  1. The Specific of Political Fundraising

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Евгений Викторович Смолянинов

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The following study is dedicated to the process of political fundraising as a subject of political science. Through the article one can find the definition of political fundraising and American political scientists' approaches to the analysis of this process. Comparative analysis of political fundraising in the U.S.A. and Russian Federation demonstrates that its' transparency has an important impact on public's control of lobby groups and other shadow political entities.

  2. Noninvasive pulse pressure variation and stroke volume variation to predict fluid responsiveness at multiple thresholds : a prospective observational study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, Jaap Jan; Poterman, Marieke; Papineau Salm, Pieternel; Van Amsterdam, Kai; Struys, Michel M. R. F.; Scheeren, Thomas W. L.; Kalmar, Alain F.

    2015-01-01

    Pulse pressure variation (PPV) and stroke volume variation (SVV) are dynamic preload variables that can be measured noninvasively to assess fluid responsiveness (FR) in anesthetized patients with mechanical ventilation. Few studies have examined the effectiveness of predicting FR according to the

  3. Polite Interactions with Robots

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Benotti, Luciana; Blackburn, Patrick Rowan

    2016-01-01

    We sketch an inference architecture that permits linguistic aspects of politeness to be interpreted; we do so by applying the ideas of politeness theory to the SCARE corpus of task-oriented dialogues, a type of dialogue of particular relevance to robotics. The fragment of the SCARE corpus we...... analyzed contains 77 uses of politeness strategies: our inference architecture covers 58 of them using classical AI planning techniques; the remainder require other forms of means-ends inference. So by the end of the paper we will have discussed in some detail how to interpret automatically different forms...

  4. A Political Innovator?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tang, Yi; Lin, Yu; Andersen, Torben Juul

    2016-01-01

    ) of the CEO. Based on a sample of 381 manufacturing firms extracted from the Entrepreneurs Survey System of Chinese CEOs with 2014 data from the Jiangsu province, the study finds that political networking is positively related to explorative and exploitative innovation but negatively moderated by the CSE......Political networking is frequently used in transition economies to gain superior performance. This study draws on upper echelons theory (UET) and the resource-based view (RBV) to analyze the relationship between political networking and firm innovation moderated by the core self-evaluation (CSE...... of the CEOs....

  5. Hospitality, Tourism, and Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen W. Litvin

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Government policy has a significant impact on the hospitality and tourism industry, but it is unclear if political leaders fully understand this economic sector when crafting policies. This article offers new research about the direct involvement of industry practitioners in the political process, by analyzing the backgrounds of legislators in the six New England states. The data indicate that only 3% of these legislators have current or former careers related to hospitality and tourism. The author suggests that practitioners should seek election to political office, to better influence government policy.

  6. Private political archives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waldemar Chorążyczewski

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available "Private political archives" are understood by me as all acts collected intently by a private person. These acts are connected with the person's participation in political life and gathered in order to be used in public activity as the source of argumentation and information about factors and mechanisms of political processes. Private political archives of the first half of the XVI century were mainly created by royal servants, often with reference to their job duties. These duties could inspire to collect political acts for private purposes. During the reign of Sigismund Augustus, archives of gentry activists were developed to small extent and they mainly focused on parliamentary life. Private political archives were created outside the executionist movement, namely in the community gathered around the royal court. After 1572, Crown and Lithuanian magnates greatly influenced the creation of political archives. Archives of lesser gentry, scarce and poor, did not disappear completely. However, they became difficult for identification. Therefore, developmental process concerned exclusively documentary "treasure troves" created by magnates. They had the financial means and possibilities to create truly valuable political archives. The same as in the previous period the dynamisms of executionist movement was reflected in political archival documentation, now the creation of patronage system and clientele, or traditionally understood magnate oligarchy, (depending on the point of view corresponded best to archives development. The heritage of previous generations was the treasure trove of patterns and solutions. However, this trove was used selectively, on one hand giving up patterns and rights that were uncomfortable, and, on the other, giving the value of precedence to unexpected acts that gained more importance or even new content in changed political conditions. The application of interpretation principle raised interest in old acts and patterns

  7. Christianity and Political Thought

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomassen, Bjørn; Forlenza, Rosario

    2016-01-01

    This article engages with the thought of Augusto Del Noce (1910-1989), the most important Italian Catholic philosopher and political thinker of the twentieth century. The focus is on how Del Noce came to elaborate a Catholic ‘modernity,’ bridging a positive encounter between Catholicism, democracy......, and freedom. This philosophical project had a considerable impact on modern Italian culture and politics. At the theoretical level, the argument is embedded within a larger aim to recognize attempts within Catholic philosophy to articulate an Italian political trajectory that does not simply accept the tale...

  8. Multimodality, politics and ideology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Machin, David; Van Leeuwen, T.

    2016-01-01

    This journal's editorial statement is clear that political discourse should be studied not only as regards parliamentary type politics. In this introduction we argue precisely for the need to pay increasing attention to the way that political ideologies are infused into culture more widely...... of power, requires meanings and identities which can hold them in place. We explain the processes by which critical multimodal discourse analysis can best draw out this ideology as it is realized through different semiotics resources. © John Benjamins Publishing Company....

  9. European welfare regimes: Political orientations versus poverty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josifidis Kosta

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This inquiry analyzes how political orientations shape welfare states and labour market institutions when seeking to reduce poverty. In order to identify effects of these two key variables, we conduct a panel regression analysis that includes two poverty measures: poverty rates before and after social spending. This inquiry considers 14 EU countries, and in the period from 1995 to 2008, which are grouped according to welfare state regimes. We consider Social Democratic, Corporatist, Mediterranean and Liberal welfare state regimes. Panel regression results indicate that political orientation engenders no significant statistically measurable effects on poverty rates before social spending. Effects register, however, as significant when considering poverty rates after social spending. With respect to the first set of results, we advance two key explanations. First, we note a longer period of time is necessary in order to observe actual effects of political orientation on market generated poverty. Second, political parties with their respective programs do not register as influential enough to solve social problems related to income distribution when taken alone. Influences register as indirect and are expressed through changes in employment rates and social spending. The second set of results support the hypothesis that a selected political regime does indeed contribute to poverty reduction. In sum, political orientation and political regime does indeed affect poverty through welfare state institutions, as well as through labour market institutions.

  10. Politics out of the History of Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Sartori

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Wendy Brown’s approach in Politics out of History is characterized by an attempt to analyze the presence of the past which can be read not only under the light of Nietzsche’s legacy, but also through a comparison with Hannah Arendt’s conception of the gap between the past and the future. Like Arendt, Brown aims to look at the present as the site of politics and freedom, even though the former conceives the break with tradition as the unavoidable starting point, while the latter assumes that that break is not fully accomplished because it was not recognized. Rather, it produces Wounded Attachments whose effect is that of limiting the possibility of left criticism. Moving from this parallel, Brown’s analysis is compared to the Italian philosophy of sexual difference, stressing their common interest in thinking freedom beyond a female identity built on a presumed common oppression.

  11. Expanding Policy Imagination in Political Economy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seabrooke, Leonard

    2006-01-01

    capacity to see political, social, and economic changes that do not conform to conventional theories, as well as distorting our understanding of how the contemporary world works. What policymakers want, more than prediction or recitation of conventional theories, is context to understand how policy can...

  12. Eastern European Political Socialization Modeling Research: A Literature Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Florela Voinea

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents empirical modeling research on political socialization of the citizens in the new Eastern European democracies. The political socialization issue offers a comparative perspective over the modeling methodologies in analytical paradigms. Eastern European political culture research has revealed features of the electoral behavior and political participation which can be identified in different degrees in all the new democracies in the area: passivity with respect to political activity of parties, elites and institutions, political apathy or lack of reaction to anti-democratic actions, skepticism or distrust in institutions, scarce participation to social movements. Several authors explain the actual political behavior of the Eastern European citizens’ and their low social and political involvement by the (political culture heritage of the communist regimes in which they lived for a long time, and which keeps shaping their political attitudes towards the state, civil society, government and institutions. Research issues in the analysis of political participation are traditionally based on statistics analyses of empirical evidence coming from public surveys. However, scarcity ofempirical data from the communist periode with regard to (political socialization, values and beliefs represent a major obstacle towards a better understanding of the historical roots of current behaviors and attitudes. Scarcity of observational data might be overcome by computational and simulation modeling.

  13. How Politicians Make Decisions: A Political Choice Experiment

    OpenAIRE

    Fatás, Enrique; Neugebauer, Tibor; Tamborero, Pilar

    2004-01-01

    The present paper reports on a political choice experiment with elected real-world politicians. A questionnaire on political and public issues is taken to examine whether prospect theory predicts the responses of experts from the field better than rational choice theory. The results indicate that framing effects exist but that expertise may weaken the deviation from rational choice.

  14. Integrating data from randomized controlled trials and observational studies to predict the response to pregabalin in patients with painful diabetic peripheral neuropathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joe Alexander

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background More patient-specific medical care is expected as more is learned about variations in patient responses to medical treatments. Analytical tools enable insights by linking treatment responses from different types of studies, such as randomized controlled trials (RCTs and observational studies. Given the importance of evidence from both types of studies, our goal was to integrate these types of data into a single predictive platform to help predict response to pregabalin in individual patients with painful diabetic peripheral neuropathy (pDPN. Methods We utilized three pivotal RCTs of pregabalin (398 North American patients and the largest observational study of pregabalin (3159 German patients. We implemented a hierarchical cluster analysis to identify patient clusters in the Observational Study to which RCT patients could be matched using the coarsened exact matching (CEM technique, thereby creating a matched dataset. We then developed autoregressive moving average models (ARMAXs to estimate weekly pain scores for pregabalin-treated patients in each cluster in the matched dataset using the maximum likelihood method. Finally, we validated ARMAX models using Observational Study patients who had not matched with RCT patients, using t tests between observed and predicted pain scores. Results Cluster analysis yielded six clusters (287–777 patients each with the following clustering variables: gender, age, pDPN duration, body mass index, depression history, pregabalin monotherapy, prior gabapentin use, baseline pain score, and baseline sleep interference. CEM yielded 1528 unique patients in the matched dataset. The reduction in global imbalance scores for the clusters after adding the RCT patients (ranging from 6 to 63% depending on the cluster demonstrated that the process reduced the bias of covariates in five of the six clusters. ARMAX models of pain score performed well (R 2 : 0.85–0.91; root mean square errors: 0.53–0

  15. Comparison of three scoring systems in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Min; Chen, Wan Jun; Lu, Xiao Ye; Qian, Jie; Zhu, Chang Qing

    2016-12-01

    To compare the performances of the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), modified GBS (mGBS) and AIMS65 in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB). This study enrolled 320 consecutive patients with AUGIB. Patients at high and low risks of developing adverse clinical outcomes (rebleeding, the need of clinical intervention and death) were categorized according to the GBS, mGBS and AIMS65 scoring systems. The outcome of the patients were the occurrences of adverse clinical outcomes. The areas under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) of three scoring systems were compared. Irrespective of the systems used, the high-risk groups showed higher rates of rebleeding, intervention and death compared with the low-risk groups (P < 0.05). For the prediction of rebleeding, AIMS65 (AUROC 0.735, 95% CI 0.667-0.802) performed significantly better than GBS (AUROC 0.672, 95% CI 0.597-0.747; P < 0.01) and mGBS (AUROC 0.677, 95% CI 0.602-0.753; P < 0.01). For the prediction of interventions, there was no significant difference among the three systems (GBS: AUROC 0.769, 95% CI 0.668-0.870; mGBS: AUROC 0.745, 95% CI 0.643-0.847; AIMS65: AUROC 0.746, 95% CI 0.640-0.851). For the prediction of in-hospital mortality, there was no significant difference among the three systems (GBS: AUROC 0.796, 95% CI 0.694-0.898; mGBS: AUROC 0.803, 95% CI 0.703-0.904; AIMS65: AUROC 0.786, 95% CI 0.670-0.903). The three scoring systems are reliable and accurate in predicting the rates of rebleeding, surgery and mortality in AUGIB. However, AIMS65 outperforms GBS and mGBS in predicting rebleeding. © 2016 Chinese Medical Association Shanghai Branch, Chinese Society of Gastroenterology, Renji Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  16. Political tug of war

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morhart, Alexander

    2011-07-01

    Rapid expansion of the European power grid is essential for the further development of wind and solar energy. The most significant obstacles are not technical, but rather of a political nature. (orig.)

  17. Political communication research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Rasmus Kleis

    2014-01-01

    The rise of new media and the broader set of social changes they are part of present political communication research with new challenges and new opportunities at a time when many think the field is at an intellectual impasse (e.g., Bennett & Iyengar, 2008). In this article, I argue that parts...... of the field’s problems are rooted in the way in which political communication research has developed since the 1960s. In this period, the field has moved from being interdisciplinary and mixed-methods to being more homogenous and narrowly focused, based primarily on ideas developed in social psychology......, certain strands of political science, and the effects-tradition of mass communication research. This dominant paradigm has contributed much to our understanding of some aspects of political communication. But it is struggling to make sense of many others, including questions concerning people’s experience...

  18. Glosa about political ethics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ćorić Dragana

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Debates about political ethics aren't new. They have been present since ancient Greek philosophers. Machiavelli set some new principles, regarding amoral behavior of the prince, which could be quite legitimate and legal. He didn't invented anything new, he just admitted that, that was the reality. Some modern authors think that ethics and politics should be departed always, some other think that they should cooperate. In the end of the day, the voters are those who must face with amoral behavior of politicians, because it seems that politicians don't recognize ethics at all? Or is it just look like? In this paper, we will try in short to tell something about origins of political ethics, its burning issues, and about possible ways of implementation of political ethics and its development.

  19. Political State Boundary (National)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — State boundaries with political limit - boundaries extending into the ocean (NTAD). The TIGER/Line Files are shapefiles and related database files (.dbf) that are an...

  20. Gendering transnational party politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kantola, Johanna; Rolandsen-Agustín, Lise

    2016-01-01

    research traditions, we build toward an analytical framework to study gender and transnational party politics. Our empirical analysis focuses on two policy issues, the economic crisis and the sexual and reproductive health and rights, analyzing European Parliament reports, debates and voting on the issues...... from 2009 to 2014. By focusing on gender equality constructions and the way in which consensus and contestation are built around them within and between party groups, we argue that shared constructions about gender equality are issue specific and change over time. Consensus breaks down along the left......In this article, we analyze transnational party politics in the European Union from a gender perspective. This is a subject that has been neglected both by mainstream European studies on party politics and by gender scholars who work on political parties. Drawing on the insights of these two...

  1. Protest Demonstrations, Political Partici

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DR Nneka

    2015-04-14

    Apr 14, 2015 ... the Era of Terrorism: Nigeria's Public Order Act and the ... Charter on Human and Peoples' Rights and other international laws. But owing to the .... little sense to limit analysis of political participation to voting and electoral.

  2. Understanding political market orientation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ormrod, Robert P.; Henneberg, Stephan C.

    influences of such behavior. The study includes structural equation modeling to investigate several propositions. While the results show that political parties need to focus on several different aspects of market-oriented behavior, especially using an internal and external orientation as cultural antecedents......This article develops a conceptual framework and measurement model of political market orientation that consists of attitudinal and behavioural constructs. The article reports on perceived relationships among different behavioral aspects of political market orientation and the attitudinal......, a more surprising result is the inconclusive effect of a voter orientation on market-oriented behaviours. The article discusses the findings in the context of the existing literature in political marketing and commercial market orientation....

  3. Political communication in referendums

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vreese, C.H.; Schuck, A.R.T.; Reinemann, C.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter reviews research on political communication in referendums that have become increasingly popular in democracies worldwide. The authors define key characteristics of referendums, touch upon participation in and popular support for referendums, and highlight the differences between them

  4. Political conversations on Facebook

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Mads P.

    2016-01-01

    Political conversations are according to theories on deliberative democracy essential to well-functioning democracies. Traditionally these conversations have taken place in face-to-face settings, in e.g. party meetings and town meetings. However, social media such as Facebook and Twitter offers new...... possibilities for online political conversations between citizens and politicians. This paper examines the presence on Facebook and Twitter of Members of the Danish national Parliament, the Folketing, and focusses on a quantitative mapping of the political conversation activities taking place in the threads...... following Facebook posts from Danish Members of Parliament (MPs). The paper shows that, in comparison with previous findings from other countries, Danish MPs have a relatively high degree of engagement in political conversations with citizens on Facebook – and that a large number of citizens follow MPs...

  5. Gaps in Political Interest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Robison, Joshua

    2015-01-01

    Political interest fundamentally influences political behavior, knowledge, and persuasion (Brady, Verba, & Schlozman, 1995; Delli Carpini & Keeter, 1996; Luskin, 1990; Zukin, Andolina, Keeter, Jenkins, & Delli Carpini, 2006). Since the early 1960s, the American National Election Studies (ANES) has...... sought to measure respondents’ general interest in politics by asking them how often they follow public affairs. In this article, we uncover novel sources of measurement error concerning this question. We first show that other nationally representative surveys that frequently use this item deliver...... drastically higher estimates of mass interest. We then use a survey experiment included on a wave of the ANES’ Evaluating Government and Society Surveys (EGSS) to explore the influence of question order in explaining this systemic gap in survey results. We show that placing batteries of political...

  6. Mixing politics and crime

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munksgaard, Rasmus; Demant, Jakob Johan

    2016-01-01

    Background Dread Pirate Roberts, founder of the first cryptomarket for illicit drugs named Silk Road, articulated libertarian political motives for his ventures. Previous research argues that there is a significant political component present or involved in cryptomarket drug dealing which...... is specifically libertarian. The aim of the paper is to investigate the prevalence of political discourses within discussions of cryptomarket drug dealing, and further to research the potential changes of these over the timespan of the study. Methods We develop a novel operationalization of discourse analytic...... concepts which we combine with topic modelling enabling us to study how politics are articulated on cryptomarket forums. We apply the Structural Topic Model on a corpus extracted from crawls of cryptomarket forums encompassing posts dating from 2011 to 2015. Results The topics discussed on cryptomarket...

  7. Application of Soft Computing Tools for Wave Prediction at Specific Locations in the Arabian Sea Using Moored Buoy Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Vimala

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The knowledge of design and operational values of significant wave heights is perhaps the single most important input needed in ocean engineering studies. Conventionally such information is obtained using classical statistical analysis and stochastic methods. As the causative variables are innumerable and underlying physics is too complicated, the results obtained from the numerical models may not always be very satisfactory. Soft computing tools like Artificial Neural Network (ANN and Adaptive Network based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS may therefore be useful to predict significant wave heights in some situations. The study is aimed at forecasting of significant wave height values in real time over a period of 24hrs at certain locations in Indian seas using the models of ANN and ANFIS. The data for the work were collected by National Institute of Ocean Technology, Chennai. It was found that the predictions of wave heights can be done by both methods with equal efficiency and satisfaction.

  8. Politics of Inclusion and Empowerment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, John; Siim, Birte

    2004-01-01

    identities. Politics of empowerment has to do with the agency and mobilisation dimension of social and political change. The title of the book "Politics of Inclusion and Empowerment" address the leitmotiv: namely to discuss plussumgame between politics of inclusion and politics of empowerment......The objective of the book is to analyse different politics of inclusion and empowerment and the different paradigms of inclusion/exclusion in order to underline the close link between politics of scoial equality and politics of recognition of ciultural difference. Politics of inclusion is thus...... theproductive/innovative linkage of politics of redistributuin and politics og resognition, whnich over a longer time span creates sustainable paths of democratic and social development, which increases the capacity to handle both conflicts about economic resources and life-chances and conflicts about...

  9. Scientific and political equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stronberg, J.B.

    1978-01-01

    The conflict between technological and political decisions concerning a spent fuel policy is again proclaimed. It is pointed out that this must be a decision at the national level and that new studies on areas already studied is a method of avoiding decisions. The author states that he doubts that ''a policy, capable of implementation within a reasonable time frame,'' can be developed if restrictions are not placed ''upon the political as well as the technical community.''

  10. Redefining the political moment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Arvanitakis

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available On 16 February 2003, more than half a million people gathered in Sydney, Australia, as part of a global anti-war protest aimed at stopping the impending invasion of Iraq by the then US Administration. It is difficult to estimate how many millions marched on the coordinated protest, but it was by far the largest mobilization of a generation. Walking and chanting on the streets of Sydney that day, it seemed that a political moment was upon us. In a culture that rarely embraces large scale activism, millions around Australian demanded to be heard. The message was clear: if you do not hear us, we would be willing to bring down a government. The invasion went ahead, however, with the then Australian government, under the leadership of John Howard, being one of the loudest and staunchest supporters of the Bush Administrations drive to war. Within 18 months, anti-war activists struggled to have a few hundred participants take part in anti-Iraq war rallies, and the Howard Government was comfortably re-elected for another term. The political moment had come and gone, with both social commentators and many members of the public looking for a reason. While the conservative media was often the focus of analysis, this paper argues that in a time of late capitalism, the political moment is hollowed out by ‘Politics’ itself. That is to say, that formal political processes (or ‘Politics’ undermine the political practices that people participate in everyday (or ‘politics’. Drawing on an ongoing research project focusing on democracy and young people, I discuss how the concept of ’politics‘ has been destabilised and subsequently, the political moment has been displaced. This displacement has led to a re-definition of ‘political action’ and, I argue, the emergence of a different type of everyday politics.

  11. Military and Political Studies

    OpenAIRE

    Alexey I. Podberyozkin

    2014-01-01

    Military-political issues is an important area of research work at MGIMO. The difference in this direction from the classical international specialization is that it is at the intersection of several disciplines: military science, military-technical and military-industrial as well as International Relations. A specialist in military and political issues should not only be an expert in the field of international relations and diplomacy, but also have a deep knowledge of military-technical issu...

  12. Observational study to calculate addictive risk to opioids: a validation study of a predictive algorithm to evaluate opioid use disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brenton A

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Ashley Brenton,1 Steven Richeimer,2,3 Maneesh Sharma,4 Chee Lee,1 Svetlana Kantorovich,1 John Blanchard,1 Brian Meshkin1 1Proove Biosciences, Irvine, CA, 2Keck school of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, 3Departments of Anesthesiology and Psychiatry, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, 4Interventional Pain Institute, Baltimore, MD, USA Background: Opioid abuse in chronic pain patients is a major public health issue, with rapidly increasing addiction rates and deaths from unintentional overdose more than quadrupling since 1999. Purpose: This study seeks to determine the predictability of aberrant behavior to opioids using a comprehensive scoring algorithm incorporating phenotypic risk factors and neuroscience-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs. Patients and methods: The Proove Opioid Risk (POR algorithm determines the predictability of aberrant behavior to opioids using a comprehensive scoring algorithm incorporating phenotypic risk factors and neuroscience-associated SNPs. In a validation study with 258 subjects with diagnosed opioid use disorder (OUD and 650 controls who reported using opioids, the POR successfully categorized patients at high and moderate risks of opioid misuse or abuse with 95.7% sensitivity. Regardless of changes in the prevalence of opioid misuse or abuse, the sensitivity of POR remained >95%. Conclusion: The POR correctly stratifies patients into low-, moderate-, and high-risk categories to appropriately identify patients at need for additional guidance, monitoring, or treatment changes. Keywords: opioid use disorder, addiction, personalized medicine, pharmacogenetics, genetic testing, predictive algorithm

  13. Map-based prediction of organic carbon in headwater streams improved by downstream observations from the river outlet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temnerud, J.; von Brömssen, C.; Fölster, J.; Buffam, I.; Andersson, J.-O.; Nyberg, L.; Bishop, K.

    2016-01-01

    In spite of the great abundance and ecological importance of headwater streams, managers are usually limited by a lack of information about water chemistry in these headwaters. In this study we test whether river outlet chemistry can be used as an additional source of information to improve the prediction of the chemistry of upstream headwaters (size interquartile range (IQR)) of headwater stream TOC for a given catchment, based on a large number of candidate variables including sub-catchment characteristics from GIS, and measured river chemistry at the catchment outlet. The best candidate variables from the PLS models were then used in hierarchical linear mixed models (MM) to model TOC in individual headwater streams. Three predictor variables were consistently selected for the MM calibration sets: (1) proportion of forested wetlands in the sub-catchment (positively correlated with headwater stream TOC), (2) proportion of lake surface cover in the sub-catchment (negatively correlated with headwater stream TOC), and (3) river outlet TOC (positively correlated with headwater stream TOC). Including river outlet TOC improved predictions, with 5-15 % lower prediction errors than when using map information alone. Thus, data on water chemistry measured at river outlets offer information which can complement GIS-based modelling of headwater stream chemistry.

  14. OGLE-2016-BLG-0168 Binary Microlensing Event: Prediction and Confirmation of the Microlens Parallax Effect from Space-based Observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, I.-G.; Yee, J. C.; Jung, Y. K. [Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Udalski, A.; Skowron, J.; Mróz, P.; Soszyński, I.; Poleski, R.; Szymański, M. K.; Kozłowski, S.; Pietrukowicz, P.; Ulaczyk, K.; Pawlak, M. [Warsaw University Observatory, Al. Ujazdowskie 4,00-478 Warszawa (Poland); Novati, S. Calchi [IPAC, Mail Code 100-22, California Institute of Technology, 1200 E. California Boulevard, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Han, C. [Department of Physics, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju 371-763 (Korea, Republic of); Albrow, M. D. [University of Canterbury, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8020 (New Zealand); Gould, A. [Department of Astronomy, Ohio State University, 140 W. 18th Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Chung, S.-J.; Hwang, K.-H.; Ryu, Y.-H. [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, 776 Daedeokdae-ro, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon 34055 (Korea, Republic of); Collaboration: OGLE Collaboration; KMTNet Group; Spitzer Team; and others

    2017-11-01

    The microlens parallax is a crucial observable for conclusively identifying the nature of lens systems in microlensing events containing or composed of faint (even dark) astronomical objects such as planets, neutron stars, brown dwarfs, and black holes. With the commencement of a new era of microlensing in collaboration with space-based observations, the microlens parallax can be routinely measured. In addition, space-based observations can provide opportunities to verify the microlens parallax measured from ground-only observations and to find a unique solution to the lensing light-curve analysis. Furthermore, since most space-based observations cannot cover the full light curves of lensing events, it is also necessary to verify the reliability of the information extracted from fragmentary space-based light curves. We conduct a test based on the microlensing event OGLE-2016-BLG-0168, created by a binary lens system consisting of almost equal mass M-dwarf stars, to demonstrate that it is possible to verify the microlens parallax and to resolve degeneracies using the space-based light curve even though the observations are fragmentary. Since space-based observatories will frequently produce fragmentary light curves due to their short observing windows, the methodology of this test will be useful for next-generation microlensing experiments that combine space-based and ground-based collaboration.

  15. Political Education as a Means of Political Socialization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabe, Weronika; Knobelsdorf, Wodzimierz

    1980-01-01

    This essay describes the dimensions of political socialization with systematic political education as a major component. Both promote individual acceptance of political norms--particularly where government and school systems are tightly linked. The authors argue that political socialization should promote effective citizenship rather than simply…

  16. Political Socialization and Political Interest: The Role of School Reassessed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koskimaa, Vesa; Rapeli, Lauri

    2015-01-01

    There is a growing concern about the lack of political interest and engagement among Western youth. This has led to a revival of political socialization studies. One recent finding is that (late) adolescence is key to understanding the development of interest for politics. This study builds on this finding by examining political interest among…

  17. Lifelong Political Socialization, Consciousness and Political Agency in Israel Today

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Dirk

    2007-01-01

    This article deals with the nexus between biographical experiences in political extraordinary times of crisis, disaster and terror and their influence on political orientations. At the centre of interest is the reconstruction of political orientations related to two different historical-political groups of Jewish Germans who had immigrated or…

  18. The Political Parties and Political Participation in Rivers State, Nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Political Parties and Political Participation in Rivers State, Nigeria: A Case Study of 2015 General Elections. Goddey Wilson. Abstract. The study reviewed the activities of the political parties and its impact on voters' participation in the political activities in Rivers State. In pursuit of this objective, the study generated ...

  19. The Effects of Majoring in Political Science on Political Efficacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominguez, Casey B. K.; Smith, Keith W.; Williams, J. Michael

    2017-01-01

    This study tests, and finds support, for the hypotheses that a student who majors in political science will have stronger feelings of political competence and will be more willing to engage in hypothetical political actions than two peer groups: (a) those who major in other fields and (b) those who show an interest in politics but have not studied…

  20. The Pragmatics of Political Apology in Ghana's Contemporary Politics

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper discusses political apology in the 4th republic of Ghanaian contemporary politics from 2013 to 2015. It taps its data from apologetic speeches by political officials and from apologies rendered to politicians. The paper discusses the semantics and pragmatics of political apology. It examines the use of the language ...

  1. TEACHER’S POLITENESS IN EFL CLASS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayfer Sülü

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Politeness is considered to promote effective interaction between people. In the context of language teaching, it is believed to enhance learning by providing a lively and friendly atmosphere in classroom (Jiang, 2010. This study investigates an EFL classroom in terms of interaction between English learners and a native English speaking teacher. The aim of the study is to see whether the effects of politeness strategies differ when students and teacher do not share the same culture and native language. Two hours of classes were observed and taperecorded by the researcher. The recordings were transcribed and analyzed by making use of related politeness strategies and functions of speech. Also, three randomly chosen students were interviewed after the class. The findings showed that politeness existed in that EFL classroom and it helped students to have positive feelings towards the lesson and motivated them to participate more in classes.

  2. Aespoe HRL - Geoscientific evaluation 1997/4. Results from pre-investigation and detailed site characterization. Comparison of predictions and observations. Hydrogeology, groundwater chemistry and transport of solutes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rhen, I; Gustafson, Gunnar [VBB Viak AB, Goeteborg (Sweden); Wikberg, P [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

    1997-06-01

    The pre-investigations for the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory were started in 1986 and involved extensive field measurements, aimed at characterizing the rock formations with regard to geology, hydrogeology, hydrochemistry and rock mechanics. Prior to the excavation in 1990 predictions were made for the excavation phase concerning: geology, ground water flow and chemistry, transport of solutes and mechanical stability. This report presents a comparison between these predictions and the observations made during the excavation. Also, investigation methods for the 700-2874 m sections of the tunnel are evaluated. 157 refs, 190 figs, 37 tabs.

  3. Falls and fear of falling predict future falls and related injuries in ambulatory individuals with spinal cord injury: a longitudinal observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivien Jørgensen

    2017-04-01

    Conclusion: Ambulatory individuals have a high risk of falling and of fall-related injuries. Fall history, fear of falling and walking speed could predict recurrent falls and injurious falls. Further studies with larger samples are needed to validate these findings. [Jørgensen V, Butler Forslund E, Opheim A, Franzén E, Wahman K, Hultling C, Seiger Å, Ståhle A, Stanghelle JK, Roaldsen KS (2017 Falls and fear of falling predict future falls and related injuries in ambulatory individuals with spinal cord injury: a longitudinal observational study. Journal of Physiotherapy 63: 108–113

  4. Aespoe HRL - Geoscientific evaluation 1997/4. Results from pre-investigation and detailed site characterization. Comparison of predictions and observations. Hydrogeology, groundwater chemistry and transport of solutes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rhen, I.; Gustafson, Gunnar; Wikberg, P.

    1997-06-01

    The pre-investigations for the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory were started in 1986 and involved extensive field measurements, aimed at characterizing the rock formations with regard to geology, hydrogeology, hydrochemistry and rock mechanics. Prior to the excavation in 1990 predictions were made for the excavation phase concerning: geology, ground water flow and chemistry, transport of solutes and mechanical stability. This report presents a comparison between these predictions and the observations made during the excavation. Also, investigation methods for the 700-2874 m sections of the tunnel are evaluated

  5. Nonpolitical images evoke neural predictors of political ideology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Woo-Young; Kishida, Kenneth T; Gu, Xiaosi; Lohrenz, Terry; Harvey, Ann; Alford, John R; Smith, Kevin B; Yaffe, Gideon; Hibbing, John R; Dayan, Peter; Montague, P Read

    2014-11-17

    Political ideologies summarize dimensions of life that define how a person organizes their public and private behavior, including their attitudes associated with sex, family, education, and personal autonomy. Despite the abstract nature of such sensibilities, fundamental features of political ideology have been found to be deeply connected to basic biological mechanisms that may serve to defend against environmental challenges like contamination and physical threat. These results invite the provocative claim that neural responses to nonpolitical stimuli (like contaminated food or physical threats) should be highly predictive of abstract political opinions (like attitudes toward gun control and abortion). We applied a machine-learning method to fMRI data to test the hypotheses that brain responses to emotionally evocative images predict individual scores on a standard political ideology assay. Disgusting images, especially those related to animal-reminder disgust (e.g., mutilated body), generate neural responses that are highly predictive of political orientation even though these neural predictors do not agree with participants' conscious rating of the stimuli. Images from other affective categories do not support such predictions. Remarkably, brain responses to a single disgusting stimulus were sufficient to make accurate predictions about an individual subject's political ideology. These results provide strong support for the idea that fundamental neural processing differences that emerge under the challenge of emotionally evocative stimuli may serve to structure political beliefs in ways formerly unappreciated. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Assessing the Impact of Surface and Upper-Air Observations on the Forecast Skill of the ACCESS Numerical Weather Prediction Model over Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei Soldatenko

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s in situ observations (land and sea surface observations, upper air observations by radiosondes, pilot balloons, wind profilers, and aircraft observations on the short-term forecast skill provided by the ACCESS (Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator global numerical weather prediction (NWP system is evaluated using an adjoint-based method. This technique makes use of the adjoint perturbation forecast model utilized within the 4D-Var assimilation system, and is able to calculate the individual impact of each assimilated observation in a cycling NWP system. The results obtained show that synoptic observations account for about 60% of the 24-h forecast error reduction, with the remainder accounted for by aircraft (12.8%, radiosondes (10.5%, wind profilers (3.9%, pilot balloons (2.8%, buoys (1.7% and ships (1.2%. In contrast, the largest impact per observation is from buoys and aircraft. Overall, all observation types have a positive impact on the 24-h forecast skill. Such results help to support the decision-making process regarding the evolution of the observing network, particularly at the national level. Consequently, this 4D-Var-based approach has great potential as a tool to assist the design and running of an efficient and effective observing network.

  7. Emotion regulation as the foundation of political attitudes: does reappraisal decrease support for conservative policies?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jooa Julia Lee

    Full Text Available Cognitive scientists, behavior geneticists, and political scientists have identified several ways in which emotions influence political attitudes, and psychologists have shown that emotion regulation can have an important causal effect on physiology, cognition, and subjective experience. However, no work to date explores the possibility that emotion regulation may shape political ideology and attitudes toward policies. Here, we conduct four studies that investigate the role of a particular emotion regulation strategy--reappraisal in particular. Two observational studies show that individual differences in emotion regulation styles predict variation in political orientations and support for conservative policies. In the third study, we experimentally induce disgust as the target emotion to be regulated and show that use of reappraisal reduces the experience of disgust, thereby decreasing moral concerns associated with conservatism. In the final experimental study, we show that use of reappraisal successfully attenuates the relationship between trait-level disgust sensitivity and support for conservative policies. Our findings provide the first evidence of a critical link between emotion regulation and political attitudes.

  8. Emotion Regulation as the Foundation of Political Attitudes: Does Reappraisal Decrease Support for Conservative Policies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jooa Julia; Sohn, Yunkyu; Fowler, James H.

    2013-01-01

    Cognitive scientists, behavior geneticists, and political scientists have identified several ways in which emotions influence political attitudes, and psychologists have shown that emotion regulation can have an important causal effect on physiology, cognition, and subjective experience. However, no work to date explores the possibility that emotion regulation may shape political ideology and attitudes toward policies. Here, we conduct four studies that investigate the role of a particular emotion regulation strategy – reappraisal in particular. Two observational studies show that individual differences in emotion regulation styles predict variation in political orientations and support for conservative policies. In the third study, we experimentally induce disgust as the target emotion to be regulated and show that use of reappraisal reduces the experience of disgust, thereby decreasing moral concerns associated with conservatism. In the final experimental study, we show that use of reappraisal successfully attenuates the relationship between trait-level disgust sensitivity and support for conservative policies. Our findings provide the first evidence of a critical link between emotion regulation and political attitudes. PMID:24367583

  9. Political Culture and the Nature of Political Participation in Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-06-01

    political socialization . Political-cultural values are gradually internalized within the society and political behavior is largely reflective of...the extent to which the regime used education as a means of political socialization : Socialism is articulated as a Muslim theory of socialism. The head... political socialization except for a brief period during the mobilization program of Ali Sabri. Egypt’s party system has been more relevant for

  10. Psychosocial and nonclinical factors predicting hospital utilization in patients of a chronic disease management program: a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Mark W; Weiland, Tracey J; Phillips, Georgina A

    2015-01-01

    Psychosocial factors such as marital status (odds ratio, 3.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.43-8.69; P = .006) and nonclinical factors such as outpatient nonattendances (odds ratio, 2.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-5.23; P = .013) and referrals made (odds ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.35; P = .003) predict hospital utilization for patients in a chronic disease management program. Along with optimizing patients' clinical condition by prescribed medical guidelines and supporting patient self-management, addressing psychosocial and nonclinical issues are important in attempting to avoid hospital utilization for people with chronic illnesses.

  11. Has Political Science Ignored Religion?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettell, Steven

    2012-01-01

    A common complaint from political scientists involved in the study of religion is that religious issues have been largely overlooked by political science. Through a content analysis of leading political science and sociology journals from 2000 to 2010, this article considers the extent of this claim. The results show that political science…

  12. AXIOLOGICAL POTENTIAL OF POLITICAL NICKNAMES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SHUSTOVA IRINA NIKOLAEVNA

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the study of axiological possibilities of political nicknames. Political nicknames are very expressive. They can be personal and impersonal. Some nicknames lose their primary meaning to become a part of evaluative political lexis. In the language of politics nicknames often serve not only as means of assessment, but also as ideological weapon.

  13. Politics of inclusion and empowerment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, John; Siim, Birte

    The book examines the political and academic debates about the interplay between political, civil and social citizenship in US and Europe......The book examines the political and academic debates about the interplay between political, civil and social citizenship in US and Europe...

  14. Forgetting the best when predicting the worst: Preliminary observations on neural circuit function in adolescent social anxiety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna M. Jarcho

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Social anxiety disorder typically begins in adolescence, a sensitive period for brain development, when increased complexity and salience of peer relationships requires novel forms of social learning. Disordered social learning in adolescence may explain how brain dysfunction promotes social anxiety. Socially anxious adolescents (n = 15 and adults (n = 19 and non-anxious adolescents (n = 24 and adults (n = 32 predicted, then received, social feedback from high and low-value peers while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI. A surprise recall task assessed memory biases for feedback. Neural correlates of social evaluation prediction errors (PEs were assessed by comparing engagement to expected and unexpected positive and negative feedback. For socially anxious adolescents, but not adults or healthy participants of either age group, PEs elicited heightened striatal activity and negative fronto-striatal functional connectivity. This occurred selectively to unexpected positive feedback from high-value peers and corresponded with impaired memory for social feedback. While impaired memory also occurred in socially-anxious adults, this impairment was unrelated to brain-based PE activity. Thus, social anxiety in adolescence may relate to altered neural correlates of PEs that contribute to impaired learning about social feedback. Small samples necessitate replication. Nevertheless, results suggest that the relationship between learning and fronto-striatal function may attenuate as development progresses.

  15. Prediction of Students’ Use and Acceptance of Clickers by Learning Approaches: A Cross-Sectional Observational Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelvin Wan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The student response system (a.k.a clickers had been widely used in classrooms for various pedagogical purposes these years. However, few of the studies examine students learning approaches toward both technology and engagement. The present study adopted a cross-sectional study method to investigate the relationship between students’ user acceptance of clickers, learning approaches, and general engagement in the clicker classes. A group of 3371 university students were investigated by an online questionnaire that contained with Unified Theory of Use and Acceptance of Technology, Study Process Questionnaire, and National Survey of Student Engagement across a two-semester span in 2015 and 2016. A regression analysis had been adopted to examine the relationship between those variables. Results indicated that a deep learning approach significantly predicted all user acceptance domains towards using clickers and significantly predicted several engagement domains such as collaborative learning and reflective and integrative learning. We concluded that deep learners tend to share a constructive attitude toward using clickers, especially when their peers are also using the clickers. While deep learners prefer integration of knowledge and skills from various sources and experiences, we hypothesize that their willingness to integrate clicker activities in their learning process stems from seeing clickers as a medium for consolidation in the learning process. Future research is, therefore, necessary to provide more detailed evidence of the characteristic of deep learners on the qualitative arm or in a way of mixed research method.

  16. Effect of boundary conditions on the strength and deformability of replicas of natural fractures in welded tuff: Comparison between predicted and observed shear behavior using a graphical method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wibowo, J.; Amadei, B.; Sture, S.; Robertson, A.B.

    1993-09-01

    Four series of cyclic direct-shear experiments were conducted on several replicas of three natural fractures and a laboratory-developed tensile fracture of welded tuff from Yucca Mountain to test the graphical load-displacement analysis method proposed by Saeb (1989) and Amadei and Saeb (1990). Based on the results of shear tests conducted on several joint replicas under different levels of constant normal load ranging between 0.6 and 25.6 kips (2.7 and 113.9 kN), the shear behavior of joint replicas under constant normal stiffness ranging between 14.8 and 187.5 kips/in. (25.9 and 328.1 kN/cm) was predicted by using the graphical method. The predictions were compared to the results of actual shear tests conducted for the same range of constant normal stiffness. In general, a good agreement was found between the predicted and the observed shear behavior

  17. A comparison of the probability distribution of observed substorm magnitude with that predicted by a minimal substorm model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. K. Morley

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available We compare the probability distributions of substorm magnetic bay magnitudes from observations and a minimal substorm model. The observed distribution was derived previously and independently using the IL index from the IMAGE magnetometer network. The model distribution is derived from a synthetic AL index time series created using real solar wind data and a minimal substorm model, which was previously shown to reproduce observed substorm waiting times. There are two free parameters in the model which scale the contributions to AL from the directly-driven DP2 electrojet and loading-unloading DP1 electrojet, respectively. In a limited region of the 2-D parameter space of the model, the probability distribution of modelled substorm bay magnitudes is not significantly different to the observed distribution. The ranges of the two parameters giving acceptable (95% confidence level agreement are consistent with expectations using results from other studies. The approximately linear relationship between the two free parameters over these ranges implies that the substorm magnitude simply scales linearly with the solar wind power input at the time of substorm onset.

  18. Observations and Student Perceptions of the Quality of Preservice Teachers' Teaching Behaviour: Construct Representation and Predictive Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maulana, Ridwan; Helms-Lorenz, Michelle

    2016-01-01

    Observations and student perceptions are recognised as important tools for examining teaching behaviour, but little is known about whether both perspectives share similar construct representations and how both perspectives link with student academic outcomes. The present study compared the construct representation of preservice teachers' teaching…

  19. Military and Political Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey I. Podberyozkin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Military-political issues is an important area of research work at MGIMO. The difference in this direction from the classical international specialization is that it is at the intersection of several disciplines: military science, military-technical and military-industrial as well as International Relations. A specialist in military and political issues should not only be an expert in the field of international relations and diplomacy, but also have a deep knowledge of military-technical issues to understand the basic trends in the development of scientific and technological progress and its impact on the balance of forces in the world. Global changes in the balance of power and the nature of the conflict, the emergence of new types of weapons are changing the basic methods and approaches to the art of war, which requires a science-based perspective on problem solving and multi-disciplinary approach in achieving the goals. Military and political studies allow us to understand how the development of military technology and military organization of the state affected by the political situation in the world, the national security of the country and its place in the system of international relations. Military-political research has been developing at MGIMO for a few decades. It laid down the basis for a scientific school of political-military studies. Its founding fathers were such prominent scholars of international affairs, as I.G. Usachyov, A.D. Nikonov, A.G. Arbatov, V.G. Baranovsky, V.M. Kulagin, A.N. Nikitin and other well-known experts. Their work covers a wide range of military and political issues, including the topics of arms control and disarmament, international, and especially European security, military policy, NATO, the Western military-political doctrines and their practical application. Now the lead in the development of this research at MGIMO has taken Center for Military-Political Studies, which became a concentration of relevant

  20. Predictive value of vrk 1 and 2 for rectal adenocarcinoma response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy: a retrospective observational cohort study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puerto-Nevado, Laura del; Marin-Arango, Juan Pablo; Fernandez-Aceñero, Maria Jesus; Arroyo-Manzano, David; Martinez-Useros, Javier; Borrero-Palacios, Aurea; Rodriguez-Remirez, Maria; Cebrian, Arancha; Gomez del Pulgar, Teresa; Cruz-Ramos, Marlid; Carames, Cristina; Lopez-Botet, Begoña; Garcia-Foncillas, Jesús

    2016-01-01

    Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NACRT) followed by surgical resection is the standard therapy for locally advanced rectal cancer. However, tumor response following NACRT varies, ranging from pathologic complete response to disease progression. We evaluated the kinases VRK1 and VRK2, which are known to play multiple roles in cellular proliferation, cell cycle regulation, and carcinogenesis, and as such are potential predictors of tumor response and may aid in identifying patients who could benefit from NACRT. Sixty-seven pretreatment biopsies were examined for VRK1 and VRK2 expression using tissue microarrays. VRK1 and VRK2 Histoscores were combined by linear addition, resulting in a new variable designated as “composite score”, and the statistical significance of this variable was assessed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and area under the ROC curve (AUC) analysis were carried out to evaluate calibration and discrimination, respectively. A nomogram was also developed. Univariate logistic regression showed that tumor size as well as composite score were statistically significant. Both variables remained significant in the multivariate analysis, obtaining an OR for tumor size of 0.65 (95 % CI, 0.45–0.94; p = 0.021) and composite score of 1.24 (95 % CI, 1.07–1.48; p = 0.005). Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed an adequate model calibration (p = 0.630) and good discrimination was also achieved, AUC 0.79 (95 % CI, 0.68–0.90). This study provides novel data on the role of VRK1 and VRK2 in predicting tumor response to NACRT, and we propose a model with high predictive ability which could have a substantial impact on clinical management of locally advanced rectal cancer. The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12885-016-2574-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users