WorldWideScience

Sample records for political observers predicted

  1. Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism - Forecasting Domestic Political Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-01

    are reserved by the copyright owner. 14. ABSTRACT The Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism (PSIR) Model of Domestic Political Violence ...for instances of increased domestic political violence , with implications for resource allocation and intelligence asset assignment. Using a regression...demonstrated correlation with political violence . 15. SUBJECT TERMS Forecasting Domestic Political Violence , Social Cultural Models 16. SECURITY

  2. The Prediction of Political Competencies by Political Action and Political Media Consumption

    OpenAIRE

    Frank Reichert

    2014-01-01

    Political competencies are often considered a precondition for political action; however, they are not independent of previous political participation, which may also include the frequency and the kind of political media consumption. My research aims at finding out the importance of participation in political activities in the past, as well as taking over civic responsibility in positions at school or university for cognitive political competencies. The focus is on structural political knowle...

  3. The Prediction of Political Competencies by Political Action and Political Media Consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichert, Frank

    2014-01-01

    Political competencies are often considered a precondition for political action; however, they are not independent of previous political participation, which may also include the frequency and the kind of political media consumption. My research aims at finding out the importance of participation in political activities in the past, as well as…

  4. The Prediction of Political Competencies by Political Action and Political Media Consumption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Reichert

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Political competencies are often considered a precondition for political action; however, they are not independent of previous political participation, which may also include the frequency and the kind of political media consumption. My research aims at finding out the importance of participation in political activities in the past, as well as taking over civic responsibility in positions at school or university for cognitive political competencies. The focus is on structural political knowledge of the polity, symbolic political knowledge about political figures and actors, and political reasoning. The main hypothesis reads that the media primarily influence symbolic political knowledge, while structural political knowledge is mainly achieved by active political participation. The ability of political reasoning is assumed to be equally influenced by both, media consumption and political participation. By using a small, homogeneous sample of university students, these hypotheses are examined by taking into consideration socio-demographic control variables and political interest in statistical analyses and by considering differential effects of various political activities and different forms of political media consumption. The results are primarily discussed with respect to potential future research and by considering political education in modern societies.

  5. Participant Observation and the Political Scientist: Possibilities, Priorities, and Practicalities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillespie, Andra; Michelson, Melissa R.

    2011-01-01

    Surveys, experiments, large-"N" datasets and formal models are common instruments in the political scientist's toolkit. In-depth interviews and focus groups play a critical role in helping scholars answer important political questions. In contrast, participant observation techniques are an underused methodological approach. In this article, we…

  6. Ensemble-based Regional Climate Prediction: Political Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miguel, E.; Dykema, J.; Satyanath, S.; Anderson, J. G.

    2008-12-01

    Accurate forecasts of regional climate, including temperature and precipitation, have significant implications for human activities, not just economically but socially. Sub Saharan Africa is a region that has displayed an exceptional propensity for devastating civil wars. Recent research in political economy has revealed a strong statistical relationship between year to year fluctuations in precipitation and civil conflict in this region in the 1980s and 1990s. To investigate how climate change may modify the regional risk of civil conflict in the future requires a probabilistic regional forecast that explicitly accounts for the community's uncertainty in the evolution of rainfall under anthropogenic forcing. We approach the regional climate prediction aspect of this question through the application of a recently demonstrated method called generalized scalar prediction (Leroy et al. 2009), which predicts arbitrary scalar quantities of the climate system. This prediction method can predict change in any variable or linear combination of variables of the climate system averaged over a wide range spatial scales, from regional to hemispheric to global. Generalized scalar prediction utilizes an ensemble of model predictions to represent the community's uncertainty range in climate modeling in combination with a timeseries of any type of observational data that exhibits sensitivity to the scalar of interest. It is not necessary to prioritize models in deriving with the final prediction. We present the results of the application of generalized scalar prediction for regional forecasts of temperature and precipitation and Sub Saharan Africa. We utilize the climate predictions along with the established statistical relationship between year-to-year rainfall variability in Sub Saharan Africa to investigate the potential impact of climate change on civil conflict within that region.

  7. Predicting Student Political Views: Reactionary to Radical.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, Timothy J.; Sedlacek, William E.

    The purpose of this study was to explore the correlates of student political views using multiple regression and discriminant analysis. A questionnaire was administered to 5,671 undergraduates at the University of Maryland during the fall of 1970. Variables covered by the questionnaire included attitudes toward campus disruptions, the Vietnam War,…

  8. Political Orientation Predicts Credulity Regarding Putative Hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fessler, Daniel M T; Pisor, Anne C; Holbrook, Colin

    2017-05-01

    To benefit from information provided by other people, people must be somewhat credulous. However, credulity entails risks. The optimal level of credulity depends on the relative costs of believing misinformation and failing to attend to accurate information. When information concerns hazards, erroneous incredulity is often more costly than erroneous credulity, given that disregarding accurate warnings is more harmful than adopting unnecessary precautions. Because no equivalent asymmetry exists for information concerning benefits, people should generally be more credulous of hazard information than of benefit information. This adaptive negatively biased credulity is linked to negativity bias in general and is more prominent among people who believe the world to be more dangerous. Because both threat sensitivity and beliefs about the dangerousness of the world differ between conservatives and liberals, we predicted that conservatism would positively correlate with negatively biased credulity. Two online studies of Americans supported this prediction, potentially illuminating how politicians' alarmist claims affect different portions of the electorate.

  9. Political conservatism predicts asymmetries in emotional scene memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Mark; Gonzalez, Frank J; Giuseffi, Karl; Sievert, Benjamin; Smith, Kevin B; Hibbing, John R; Dodd, Michael D

    2016-06-01

    Variation in political ideology has been linked to differences in attention to and processing of emotional stimuli, with stronger responses to negative versus positive stimuli (negativity bias) the more politically conservative one is. As memory is enhanced by attention, such findings predict that memory for negative versus positive stimuli should similarly be enhanced the more conservative one is. The present study tests this prediction by having participants study 120 positive, negative, and neutral scenes in preparation for a subsequent memory test. On the memory test, the same 120 scenes were presented along with 120 new scenes and participants were to respond whether a scene was old or new. Results on the memory test showed that negative scenes were more likely to be remembered than positive scenes, though, this was true only for political conservatives. That is, a larger negativity bias was found the more conservative one was. The effect was sizeable, explaining 45% of the variance across subjects in the effect of emotion. These findings demonstrate that the relationship between political ideology and asymmetries in emotion processing extend to memory and, furthermore, suggest that exploring the extent to which subject variation in interactions among emotion, attention, and memory is predicted by conservatism may provide new insights into theories of political ideology. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  10. Learning Political Science with Prediction Markets: An Experimental Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Cali Mortenson; Sami, Rahul

    2012-01-01

    Prediction markets are designed to aggregate the information of many individuals to forecast future events. These markets provide participants with an incentive to seek information and a forum for interaction, making markets a promising tool to motivate student learning. We carried out a quasi-experiment in an introductory political science class…

  11. Enhanced Ocean Predictability Through Optimal Observing Strategies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kirwan, A

    1999-01-01

    The long term goal of this research is to develop the requisite technology to design effective observation strategies that will maximize the capacity to predict mesoscale and submesoscale conditions...

  12. A multi-source, multi-study investigation of job performance prediction by political skill

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blickle, G.; Ferris, G.R.; Munyon, T.P.

    2011-01-01

    Political skill is a social effectiveness construct with a demonstrated capacity to predict job performance. However, because performance prediction research in this area to date has made exclusive use of self-reports of political skill, and due to frequent distrust of self-ratings of constructs......-sectional and longitudinal designs, this research tested the hypotheses that employee political skill, measured from the perspective of employees' assessor A, will positively predict job performance rated by assessor B (i.e. Hypothesis 1a), and vice versa, that employee political skill measured by assessor B will predict...... in important personnel decisions, there is a need to investigate how multiple alternative sources of political skill and job performance measures relate, thus raising both theoretical and methodological issues. In three studies, employing a triadic data collection methodology, and utilising both cross...

  13. Politeness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henri Bergson

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This is the English translation of a speech Bergson made at Lycée Henri-IV on July 30, 1892. This is an interesting text because it anticipates Bergson’s last book, his The Two Sources of Morality and Religion. Like the distinction in The Two Sources between the open and the closed, “Politeness” defines its subject matter in two ways. There is what Bergson calls “manners” and there is true politeness. For Bergson, both kinds of politeness concern equality. Manners or material politeness amount to the ritualized greetings and formalities by means of which we usually define politeness. Unfortunately and like The Two Sources, Bergson attributes this formalized relation to other human beings with primitive and “inferior races.” Nevertheless, Bergson sees in these formalities an attempt, in the name of equality, to ignore other people’s talents and merits so that one can dominate morally superior people. In contrast, true politeness or “spiritual politeness” consists in “intellectual flexibility.” When one meets a person of superior morality, one is flexible in one’s relation to him or her; one abandons the formalities in order to really live her life and think her thoughts. Here we find equality too: “what defines this very polite person is to prefer each of his friends over the others, and to succeed in this way in loving them equally.” After making a comparison to dance, Bergson defines spiritual politeness as “a grace of the mind.” Since both kinds of politeness concern equality, Bergson associates both with justice. However, beyond these two kinds of politeness and justice there is “politeness of the heart,” which concerns charity. In order to indicate politeness of the heart, Bergson describes the kind of person, a sensitive person, who anxiously awaits a word of praise in order to feel good about herself but who also, when she hears a word of reproach, is thrown into sadness. Although Bergson calls the

  14. Climate change: Conflict of observational science, theory, and politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerhard, L.C.

    2004-01-01

    Debate over whether human activity causes Earth climate change obscures the immensity of the dynamic systems that create and maintain climate on the planet. Anthropocentric debate leads people to believe that they can alter these planetary dynamic systems to prevent that they perceive as negative climate impacts on human civilization. Although politicians offer simplistic remedies, such as the Kyoto Protocol, global climate continues to change naturally. Better planning for the inevitable dislocations that have followed natural global climate changes throughout human history requires us to accept the fact that climate will change, and that human society must adapt to the changes. Over the last decade, the scientific literature reported a shift in emphasis from attempting to build theoretical models of putative human impacts on climate to understanding the planetwide dynamic processes that are the natural climate drivers. The current scientific literature is beginning to report the history of past climate change, the extent of natural climate variability, natural system drivers, and the episodicity of many climate changes. The scientific arguments have broadened from focus upon human effects on climate to include the array of natural phenomena that have driven global climate change for eons. However, significant political issues with long-term social consequences continue their advance. This paper summarizes recent scientific progress in climate science and arguments about human influence on climate. ?? 2004. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

  15. Political complexity predicts the spread of ethnolinguistic groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, Thomas E; Mace, Ruth

    2009-05-05

    Human languages show a remarkable degree of variation in the area they cover. However, the factors governing the distribution of human cultural groups such as languages are not well understood. While previous studies have examined the role of a number of environmental variables the importance of cultural factors has not been systematically addressed. Here we use a geographical information system (GIS) to integrate information about languages with environmental, ecological, and ethnographic data to test a number of hypotheses that have been proposed to explain the global distribution of languages. We show that the degree of political complexity and type of subsistence strategy exhibited by societies are important predictors of the area covered by a language. Political complexity is also strongly associated with the latitudinal gradient in language area, whereas subsistence strategy is not. We argue that a process of cultural group selection favoring more complex societies may have been important in shaping the present-day global distribution of language diversity.

  16. Neuroelectrical Correlates of Trustworthiness and Dominance Judgments Related to the Observation of Political Candidates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Vecchiato

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The present research investigates the neurophysiological activity elicited by fast observations of faces of real candidates during simulated political elections. We used simultaneous recording of electroencephalographic (EEG signals as well as galvanic skin response (GSR and heart rate (HR as measurements of central and autonomic nervous systems. Twenty healthy subjects were asked to give judgments on dominance, trustworthiness, and a preference of vote related to the politicians’ faces. We used high-resolution EEG techniques to map statistical differences of power spectral density (PSD cortical activity onto a realistic head model as well as partial directed coherence (PDC and graph theory metrics to estimate the functional connectivity networks and investigate the role of cortical regions of interest (ROIs. Behavioral results revealed that judgment of dominance trait is the most predictive of the outcome of the simulated elections. Statistical comparisons related to PSD and PDC values highlighted an asymmetry in the activation of frontal cortical areas associated with the valence of the judged trait as well as to the probability to cast the vote. Overall, our results highlight the existence of cortical EEG features which are correlated with the prediction of vote and with the judgment of trustworthy and dominant faces.

  17. The political gender gap: gender bias in facial inferences that predict voting behavior.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joan Y Chiao

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Throughout human history, a disproportionate degree of political power around the world has been held by men. Even in democracies where the opportunity to serve in top political positions is available to any individual elected by the majority of their constituents, most of the highest political offices are occupied by male leaders. What psychological factors underlie this political gender gap? Contrary to the notion that people use deliberate, rational strategies when deciding whom to vote for in major political elections, research indicates that people use shallow decision heuristics, such as impressions of competence solely from a candidate's facial appearance, when deciding whom to vote for. Because gender has previously been shown to affect a number of inferences made from the face, here we investigated the hypothesis that gender of both voter and candidate affects the kinds of facial impressions that predict voting behavior. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDING: Male and female voters judged a series of male and female political candidates on how competent, dominant, attractive and approachable they seemed based on their facial appearance. Then they saw a series of pairs of political candidates and decided which politician they would vote for in a hypothetical election for President of the United States. Results indicate that both gender of voter and candidate affect the kinds of facial impressions that predict voting behavior. All voters are likely to vote for candidates who appear more competent. However, male candidates that appear more approachable and female candidates who appear more attractive are more likely to win votes. In particular, men are more likely to vote for attractive female candidates whereas women are more likely to vote for approachable male candidates. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Here we reveal gender biases in the intuitive heuristics that voters use when deciding whom to vote for in major political elections. Our

  18. Pathogens and politics: further evidence that parasite prevalence predicts authoritarianism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Damian R; Schaller, Mark; Suedfeld, Peter

    2013-01-01

    According to a "parasite stress" hypothesis, authoritarian governments are more likely to emerge in regions characterized by a high prevalence of disease-causing pathogens. Recent cross-national evidence is consistent with this hypothesis, but there are inferential limitations associated with that evidence. We report two studies that address some of these limitations, and provide further tests of the hypothesis. Study 1 revealed that parasite prevalence strongly predicted cross-national differences on measures assessing individuals' authoritarian personalities, and this effect statistically mediated the relationship between parasite prevalence and authoritarian governance. The mediation result is inconsistent with an alternative explanation for previous findings. To address further limitations associated with cross-national comparisons, Study 2 tested the parasite stress hypothesis on a sample of traditional small-scale societies (the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample). Results revealed that parasite prevalence predicted measures of authoritarian governance, and did so even when statistically controlling for other threats to human welfare. (One additional threat-famine-also uniquely predicted authoritarianism.) Together, these results further substantiate the parasite stress hypothesis of authoritarianism, and suggest that societal differences in authoritarian governance result, in part, from cultural differences in individuals' authoritarian personalities.

  19. Cortisol and politics: variance in voting behavior is predicted by baseline cortisol levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Jeffrey A; Smith, Kevin B; Alford, John R; Guck, Adam; Birnie, Andrew K; Hibbing, John R

    2014-06-22

    Participation in electoral politics is affected by a host of social and demographics variables, but there is growing evidence that biological predispositions may also play a role in behavior related to political involvement. We examined the role of individual variation in hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) stress axis parameters in explaining differences in self-reported and actual participation in political activities. Self-reported political activity, religious participation, and verified voting activity in U.S. national elections were collected from 105 participants, who were subsequently exposed to a standardized (nonpolitical) psychosocial stressor. We demonstrated that lower baseline salivary cortisol in the late afternoon was significantly associated with increased actual voting frequency in six national elections, but not with self-reported non-voting political activity. Baseline cortisol predicted significant variation in voting behavior above and beyond variation accounted for by traditional demographic variables (particularly age of participant in our sample). Participation in religious activity was weakly (and negatively) associated with baseline cortisol. Our results suggest that HPA-mediated characteristics of social, cognitive, and emotional processes may exert an influence on a trait as complex as voting behavior, and that cortisol is a better predictor of actual voting behavior, as opposed to self-reported political activity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. EEG Analysis of the Brain Activity during the Observation of Commercial, Political, or Public Service Announcements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Vecchiato

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The use of modern brain imaging techniques could be useful to understand what brain areas are involved in the observation of video clips related to commercial advertising, as well as for the support of political campaigns, and also the areas of Public Service Announcements (PSAs. In this paper we describe the capability of tracking brain activity during the observation of commercials, political spots, and PSAs with advanced high-resolution EEG statistical techniques in time and frequency domains in a group of normal subjects. We analyzed the statistically significant cortical spectral power activity in different frequency bands during the observation of a commercial video clip related to the use of a beer in a group of 13 normal subjects. In addition, a TV speech of the Prime Minister of Italy was analyzed in two groups of swing and “supporter” voters. Results suggested that the cortical activity during the observation of commercial spots could vary consistently across the spot. This fact suggest the possibility to remove the parts of the spot that are not particularly attractive by using those cerebral indexes. The cortical activity during the observation of the political speech indicated a major cortical activity in the supporters group when compared to the swing voters. In this case, it is possible to conclude that the communication proposed has failed to raise attention or interest on swing voters. In conclusions, high-resolution EEG statistical techniques have been proved to able to generate useful insights about the particular fruition of TV messages, related to both commercial as well as political fields.

  1. Why achievement motivation predicts success in business but failure in politics: the importance of personal control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, David G

    2010-12-01

    Several decades of research have established that implicit achievement motivation (n Achievement) is associated with success in business, particularly in entrepreneurial or sales roles. However, several political psychology studies have shown that achievement motivation is not associated with success in politics; rather, implicit power motivation often predicts political success. Having versus lacking control may be a key difference between business and politics. Case studies suggest that achievement-motivated U.S. presidents and other world leaders often become frustrated and thereby fail because of lack of control, whereas power-motivated presidents develop ways to work with this inherent feature of politics. A reevaluation of previous research suggests that, in fact, relationships between achievement motivation and business success only occur when control is high. The theme of control is also prominent in the development of achievement motivation. Cross-national data are also consistent with this analysis: In democratic industrialized countries, national levels of achievement motivation are associated with strong executive control. In countries with low opportunity for education (thus fewer opportunities to develop a sense of personal control), achievement motivation is associated with internal violence. Many of these manifestations of frustrated achievement motivation in politics resemble authoritarianism. This conclusion is tested by data from a longitudinal study of 113 male college students, showing that high initial achievement motivation combined with frustrated desires for control is related to increases in authoritarianism (F-scale scores) during the college years. Implications for the psychology of leadership and practical politics are discussed. © 2010 The Author. Journal of Personality © 2010, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Investigating the origins of political views: biases in explanation predict conservative attitudes in children and adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussak, Larisa J; Cimpian, Andrei

    2017-07-18

    We tested the hypothesis that political attitudes are influenced by an information-processing factor - namely, a bias in the content of everyday explanations. Because many societal phenomena are enormously complex, people's understanding of them often relies on heuristic shortcuts. For instance, when generating explanations for such phenomena (e.g., why does this group have low status?), people often rely on facts that they can retrieve easily from memory - facts that are skewed toward inherent or intrinsic features (e.g., this group is unintelligent). We hypothesized that this bias in the content of heuristic explanations leads to a tendency to (1) view socioeconomic stratification as acceptable and (2) prefer current societal arrangements to alternative ones, two hallmarks of conservative ideology. Moreover, since the inherence bias in explanation is present across development, we expected it to shape children's proto-political judgments as well. Three studies with adults and 4- to 8-year-old children (N = 784) provided support for these predictions: Not only did individual differences in reliance on inherent explanations uniquely predict endorsement of conservative views (particularly the stratification-supporting component; Study 1), but manipulations of this explanatory bias also had downstream consequences for political attitudes in both children and adults (Studies 2 and 3). This work contributes to our understanding of the origins of political attitudes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Response predictions using the observed autocorrelation function

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Ulrik Dam; H. Brodtkorb, Astrid; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2018-01-01

    -induced response in study. Thus, predicted (future) values ahead of time for a given time history recording are computed through a mathematical combination of the sample autocorrelation function and previous measurements recorded just prior to the moment of action. Importantly, the procedure does not need input...

  4. Feeling superior is a bipartisan issue: extremity (not direction) of political views predicts perceived belief superiority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toner, Kaitlin; Leary, Mark R; Asher, Michael W; Jongman-Sereno, Katrina P

    2013-12-01

    Accusations of entrenched political partisanship have been launched against both conservatives and liberals. But is feeling superior about one's beliefs a partisan issue? Two competing hypotheses exist: the rigidity-of-the-right hypothesis (i.e., conservatives are dogmatic) and the ideological-extremism hypothesis (i.e., extreme views on both sides predict dogmatism). We measured 527 Americans' attitudes about nine contentious political issues, the degree to which they thought their beliefs were superior to other people's, and their level of dogmatism. Dogmatism was higher for people endorsing conservative views than for people endorsing liberal views, which replicates the rigidity-of-the-right hypothesis. However, curvilinear effects of ideological attitude on belief superiority (i.e., belief that one's position is more correct than another's) supported the ideological-extremism hypothesis. Furthermore, responses reflecting the greatest belief superiority were obtained on conservative attitudes for three issues and liberal attitudes for another three issues. These findings capture nuances in the relationship between political beliefs and attitude entrenchment that have not been revealed previously.

  5. Distributed estimation based on observations prediction in wireless sensor networks

    KAUST Repository

    Bouchoucha, Taha

    2015-03-19

    We consider wireless sensor networks (WSNs) used for distributed estimation of unknown parameters. Due to the limited bandwidth, sensor nodes quantize their noisy observations before transmission to a fusion center (FC) for the estimation process. In this letter, the correlation between observations is exploited to reduce the mean-square error (MSE) of the distributed estimation. Specifically, sensor nodes generate local predictions of their observations and then transmit the quantized prediction errors (innovations) to the FC rather than the quantized observations. The analytic and numerical results show that transmitting the innovations rather than the observations mitigates the effect of quantization noise and hence reduces the MSE. © 2015 IEEE.

  6. Social networks predict selective observation and information spread in ravens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubenstein, Daniel I.; Bugnyar, Thomas; Hoppitt, William; Mikus, Nace; Schwab, Christine

    2016-01-01

    Animals are predicted to selectively observe and learn from the conspecifics with whom they share social connections. Yet, hardly anything is known about the role of different connections in observation and learning. To address the relationships between social connections, observation and learning, we investigated transmission of information in two raven (Corvus corax) groups. First, we quantified social connections in each group by constructing networks on affiliative interactions, aggressive interactions and proximity. We then seeded novel information by training one group member on a novel task and allowing others to observe. In each group, an observation network based on who observed whose task-solving behaviour was strongly correlated with networks based on affiliative interactions and proximity. Ravens with high social centrality (strength, eigenvector, information centrality) in the affiliative interaction network were also central in the observation network, possibly as a result of solving the task sooner. Network-based diffusion analysis revealed that the order that ravens first solved the task was best predicted by connections in the affiliative interaction network in a group of subadult ravens, and by social rank and kinship (which influenced affiliative interactions) in a group of juvenile ravens. Our results demonstrate that not all social connections are equally effective at predicting the patterns of selective observation and information transmission. PMID:27493780

  7. The Relationship of Children's Predicted Behaviour to their Observed

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Olaleye

    The objective of this study was to assess the relationship of some Nigerian children's predicted behaviour to their observed behaviour ... study of children from low socio- economic families during their first dental visit, Hawley et al, ... An assessment of the behaviour of each child was made using Frankl's. Behaviour Rating ...

  8. Predicting epidemic evolution on contact networks from partial observations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacopo Bindi

    Full Text Available The massive employment of computational models in network epidemiology calls for the development of improved inference methods for epidemic forecast. For simple compartment models, such as the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, Belief Propagation was proved to be a reliable and efficient method to identify the origin of an observed epidemics. Here we show that the same method can be applied to predict the future evolution of an epidemic outbreak from partial observations at the early stage of the dynamics. The results obtained using Belief Propagation are compared with Monte Carlo direct sampling in the case of SIR model on random (regular and power-law graphs for different observation methods and on an example of real-world contact network. Belief Propagation gives in general a better prediction that direct sampling, although the quality of the prediction depends on the quantity under study (e.g. marginals of individual states, epidemic size, extinction-time distribution and on the actual number of observed nodes that are infected before the observation time.

  9. Observational breakthroughs lead the way to improved hydrological predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

    2017-04-01

    New data sources are revolutionizing the hydrological sciences. The capabilities of hydrological models have advanced greatly over the last several decades, but until recently model capabilities have outstripped the spatial resolution and accuracy of model forcings (atmospheric variables at the land surface) and the hydrologic state variables (e.g., soil moisture; snow water equivalent) that the models predict. This has begun to change, as shown in two examples here: soil moisture and drought evolution over Africa as predicted by a hydrology model forced with satellite-derived precipitation, and observations of snow water equivalent at very high resolution over a river basin in California's Sierra Nevada.

  10. Predicting Plasma Glucose From Interstitial Glucose Observations Using Bayesian Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Alexander Hildenbrand; Duun-Henriksen, Anne Katrine; Juhl, Rune

    2014-01-01

    One way of constructing a control algorithm for an artificial pancreas is to identify a model capable of predicting plasma glucose (PG) from interstitial glucose (IG) observations. Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) make it possible to account both for the unknown influence of the continuous...... glucose monitor (CGM) and for unknown physiological influences. Combined with prior knowledge about the measurement devices, this approach can be used to obtain a robust predictive model. A stochastic-differential-equation-based gray box (SDE-GB) model is formulated on the basis of an identifiable...

  11. The Political Thinking of the Mainland Taishang: Some Preliminary Observations from the Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gunter Schubert

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available This article explores the political thinking of Taiwanese business people (taishang and factory managers (taigan on the Chinese mainland by drawing on qualitative data gathered between 2006 and 2008 in the Pearl River Delta and the Shanghai/ Kunshan metropolitan area. An ideal type of taishang is constructed to explain the major features of their identification with Taiwan, their perspectives on cross-Strait relations, their integration in Chinese society and their self-assessment as political actors in the shaping of cross-Strait relations. An important finding of this study is that the taishang is a rather apolitical figure who does not see much leeway to develop autonomous political leverage. However, this may change gradually as cross-Strait relations have eased significantly since the Kuomintang (KMT (Guomindang came to power in mid-2008 and the governments in Beijing and Taibei have experienced a rapprochement.

  12. Political Competitiveness

    OpenAIRE

    Casey B. Mulligan; Kevin K. Tsui

    2006-01-01

    Political competitiveness - which many interpret as the degree of democracy - can be modeled as a monopolistic competition. All regimes are constrained by the threat of "entry," and thereby seek some combination of popular support and political entry barriers. This simple model predicts that many public policies are unrelated to political competitiveness, and that even unchallenged nondemocratic regimes should tax far short of their Laffer curve maximum. Economic sanctions, odious debt repudi...

  13. Hindsight bias in political elections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blank, Hartmut; Fischer, Volkhard; Erdfelder, Edgar

    2003-01-01

    Two studies on political hindsight bias were conducted on the occasions of the German parliament election in 1998 and the Nordrhein-Westfalen state parliament election in 2000. In both studies, participants predicted the percentage of votes for several political parties and recalled these predictions after the election. The observed hindsight effects were stronger than those found in any prior study on political elections (using percentage of votes as the dependent variable). We argue that the length of the retention interval between original judgement and recollection is mainly responsible for this difference. In our second study, we investigated possible artifacts in political hindsight biases using a control-group design where half of the participants recalled their predictions shortly before or after the election. Hindsight bias was preserved, reinforcing the results of earlier studies with non-control-group designs. Finally, we discuss the possibility that the hindsight experience (in political judgement and in general) actually consists of three different, partly independent components.

  14. GENDER AND THE PERSONAL IN POLITICAL BIOGRAPHY Observations from a Dutch Perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosch, Mineke

    2009-01-01

    This article explores the differential meanings of "personal life" in political biographies of men and women, mainly based upon Dutch examples, but making use of international literature. Though there has been a tendency to use personal detail only as a means to advertise and popularize

  15. Predicting the future completing models of observed complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Abarbanel, Henry

    2013-01-01

    Predicting the Future: Completing Models of Observed Complex Systems provides a general framework for the discussion of model building and validation across a broad spectrum of disciplines. This is accomplished through the development of an exact path integral for use in transferring information from observations to a model of the observed system. Through many illustrative examples drawn from models in neuroscience, fluid dynamics, geosciences, and nonlinear electrical circuits, the concepts are exemplified in detail. Practical numerical methods for approximate evaluations of the path integral are explored, and their use in designing experiments and determining a model's consistency with observations is investigated. Using highly instructive examples, the problems of data assimilation and the means to treat them are clearly illustrated. This book will be useful for students and practitioners of physics, neuroscience, regulatory networks, meteorology and climate science, network dynamics, fluid dynamics, and o...

  16. The observed and predicted health effects of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-03-01

    Due to poor design, operator error and the absence of an established S afety Culture , the worst accident in the history of nuclear power involving the Unit 4 RMBK reactor occurred at Chernobyl in the Ukraine in the early morning of 26 April 1986. This accident led to the contamination of large tracts of forest and agricultural land (in the former Soviet Union) and the evacuation of a large number of people. Thirty-one people died at the time of the accident or shortly afterwards, and 203 people were treated for the Acute Radiation Syndrome. From about 1990 a significant increase in the number of childhood thyroid cancers has been noted in Belarus and Ukraine. Because of the social, political and economic situation in the Soviet Union soon after the accident, the anxiety and stress induced in the general population has been enhanced to the point where it may well be the single most important indirect health effect of the accident. Contamination outside the former Soviet Union was largely confined to Europe, where it was extremely patchy and variable. Contamination in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere was insignificant. The health effects in the General Population in the Contaminated Regions in the former USSR and Europe, are predicted to be low and not discernible. However, there may be subgroups within, for example, the Liquidators, which if they can be identified and followed, may show adverse health effects. Health effects in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere will be inconsequential. (author) 38 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig

  17. How Internal Political Efficacy Translates Political Knowledge Into Political Participation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Reichert

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This study presents evidence for the mediation effect of political knowledge through political self-efficacy (i.e. internal political efficacy in the prediction of political participation. It employs an action theoretic approach—by and large grounded on the Theory of Planned Behaviour—and uses data from the German Longitudinal Election Study to examine whether political knowledge has distinct direct effects on voting, conventional, and/or unconventional political participation. It argues that political knowledge raises internal political efficacy and thereby indirectly increases the chance that a citizen will participate in politics. The results of mediated multiple regression analyses yield evidence that political knowledge indeed translates into internal political efficacy, thus it affects political participation of various kinds indirectly. However, internal political efficacy and intentions to participate politically yield simultaneous direct effects only on conventional political participation. Sequentially mediated effects appear for voting and conventional political participation, with political knowledge being mediated by internal political efficacy and subsequently also by behavioural intentions. The mediation patterns for unconventional political participation are less clear though. The discussion accounts for restrictions of this study and points to questions for answer by future research.

  18. How Internal Political Efficacy Translates Political Knowledge Into Political Participation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichert, Frank

    2016-01-01

    This study presents evidence for the mediation effect of political knowledge through political self-efficacy (i.e. internal political efficacy) in the prediction of political participation. It employs an action theoretic approach—by and large grounded on the Theory of Planned Behaviour—and uses data from the German Longitudinal Election Study to examine whether political knowledge has distinct direct effects on voting, conventional, and/or unconventional political participation. It argues that political knowledge raises internal political efficacy and thereby indirectly increases the chance that a citizen will participate in politics. The results of mediated multiple regression analyses yield evidence that political knowledge indeed translates into internal political efficacy, thus it affects political participation of various kinds indirectly. However, internal political efficacy and intentions to participate politically yield simultaneous direct effects only on conventional political participation. Sequentially mediated effects appear for voting and conventional political participation, with political knowledge being mediated by internal political efficacy and subsequently also by behavioural intentions. The mediation patterns for unconventional political participation are less clear though. The discussion accounts for restrictions of this study and points to questions for answer by future research. PMID:27298633

  19. THE POPULATION OF HELIUM-MERGER PROGENITORS: OBSERVATIONAL PREDICTIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fryer, Chris L.; Belczynski, Krzysztof; Bulik, Tomasz; Berger, Edo; Thöne, Christina; Ellinger, Carola

    2013-01-01

    The helium-merger gamma-ray burst (GRB) progenitor is produced by the rapid accretion onto a compact remnant (neutron star or black hole) when it undergoes a common envelope inspiral with its companion's helium core. This merger phase produces a very distinct environment around these outbursts and recent observations suggest that, in some cases, we are detecting the signatures of the past merger in the GRB afterglow. These observations allow us, for the first time, to study the specific features of the helium-merger progenitor. In this paper, we couple population synthesis calculations to our current understanding of GRB engines and common envelope evolution to make observational predictions for the helium-merger GRB population. Many mergers do not produce GRB outbursts and we discuss the implications of these mergers with the broader population of astrophysical transients.

  20. Performing Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Troy R. E. Paddock

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Walter Benjamin’s observation that fascism turns politics into aesthetics is, by now, a well-worn idea. This article argues that Benjamin’s critique of politics can apply just as much to the modern democratic politics of the United States. Borrowing from Benjamin, Jürgen Habermas, and Carl Schmitt, this article suggests that modern political discourse in the United States does not follow the classical liberal ideal of rational discourse in the marketplace of ideas within the public sphere. Instead, contemporary politics has become spectacle where images and slogans replace thought and debate in a 24/7 news cycle and political infotainment programs. The result is that progressives and conservatives have their own political “ecospheres” which enable them to have their own perspective reinforced, and debate is replaced by straw man arguments and personal attacks.

  1. Do Personality and Organizational Politics Predict Workplace Victimization? A Study among Ghanaian Employees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwesi Amponsah-Tawiah

    2017-03-01

    Conclusion: The study demonstrates that compared with personal characteristics such as personality traits, work environment factors such as organizational politics have a stronger influence on the occurrence of workplace victimization.

  2. Do Personality and Organizational Politics Predict Workplace Victimization? A Study among Ghanaian Employees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amponsah-Tawiah, Kwesi; Annor, Francis

    2017-03-01

    Workplace victimization is considered a major social stressor with significant implications for the wellbeing of employees and organizations. The aim of this study was to examine the influences of employees' personality traits and organizational politics on workplace victimization among Ghanaian employees. Using a cross-sectional design, data were collected from 631 employees selected from diverse occupations through convenience sampling. Data collection tools were standardized questionnaires that measured experiences of negative acts at work (victimization), the Big Five personality traits, and organizational politics. The results from hierarchical multiple regression analysis showed that among the personality traits neuroticism and conscientiousness had significant, albeit weak relationships with victimization. Organizational politics had a significant positive relationship with workplace victimization beyond employees' personality. The study demonstrates that compared with personal characteristics such as personality traits, work environment factors such as organizational politics have a stronger influence on the occurrence of workplace victimization.

  3. Resolving Discrepancies Between Observed and Predicted Dynamic Topography on Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, F. D.; Hoggard, M.; White, N. J.

    2017-12-01

    Compilations of well-resolved oceanic residual depth measurements suggest that present-day dynamic topography differs from that predicted by geodynamic simulations in two significant respects. At short wavelengths (λ ≤ 5,000 km), much larger amplitude variations are observed, whereas at long wavelengths (λ > 5,000 km), observed dynamic topography is substantially smaller. Explaining the cause of this discrepancy with a view to reconciling these different approaches is central to constraining the structure and dynamics of the deep Earth. Here, we first convert shear wave velocity to temperature using an experimentally-derived anelasticity model. This relationship is calibrated using a pressure and temperature-dependent plate model that satisfies age-depth subsidence, heat flow measurements, and seismological constraints on the depth to the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary. In this way, we show that, at short-wavelengths, observed dynamic topography is consistent with ±150 ºC asthenospheric temperature anomalies. These inferred thermal buoyancy variations are independently verified by temperature measurements derived from geochemical analyses of mid-ocean ridge basalts. Viscosity profiles derived from the anelasticity model suggest that the asthenosphere has an average viscosity that is two orders of magnitude lower than that of the underlying upper mantle. The base of this low-viscosity layer coincides with a peak in azimuthal anisotropy observed in recent seismic experiments. This agreement implies that lateral asthenospheric flow is rapid with respect to the underlying upper mantle. We conclude that improved density and viscosity models of the uppermost mantle, which combine a more comprehensive physical description of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system with recent seismic tomographic models, can help to resolve spectral discrepancies between observed and predicted dynamic topography. Finally, we explore possible solutions to the long

  4. Possible sources of UHECRs. Characteristics, predictions and observational consequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Behroozian, Soraya; Risse, Markus; Yushkov, Alexey [University of Siegen (Germany)

    2016-07-01

    Ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) are charged particles with energies above 1 EeV originating from astrophysical sources. Due to interactions with the extragalactic and galactic magnetic fields during propagation the arrival directions of the UHECRs do not point back to the sources and the origin of these particles is an open question. Many models have been developed proposing astrophysical objects such as SNe, AGNs (Cen A being the most addressed one), quasars, blazars and GRBs as plausible acceleration sites. We review some characteristics of such sources and discuss the observational predictions comparing them to the recent results on the mass composition from the Pierre Auger Observatory.

  5. The Impact of Ocean Observations in Seasonal Climate Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rienecker, Michele; Keppenne, Christian; Kovach, Robin; Marshak, Jelena

    2010-01-01

    The ocean provides the most significant memory for the climate system. Hence, a critical element in climate forecasting with coupled models is the initialization of the ocean with states from an ocean data assimilation system. Remotely-sensed ocean surface fields (e.g., sea surface topography, SST, winds) are now available for extensive periods and have been used to constrain ocean models to provide a record of climate variations. Since the ocean is virtually opaque to electromagnetic radiation, the assimilation of these satellite data is essential to extracting the maximum information content. More recently, the Argo drifters have provided unprecedented sampling of the subsurface temperature and salinity. Although the duration of this observation set has been too short to provide solid statistical evidence of its impact, there are indications that Argo improves the forecast skill of coupled systems. This presentation will address the impact these different observations have had on seasonal climate predictions with the GMAO's coupled model.

  6. The Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task (SPORT) Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spann, James; Le, Guan; Swenson, Charles; Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Bishop, Rebecca L.; Abdu, Mangalathayil A.; Cupertino Durao, Otavio S.; Heelis, Roderick; Loures, Luis; Krause, Linda; Fonseca, Eloi

    2016-07-01

    Structure in the charged particle number density in the equatorial ionosphere can have a profound impact on the fidelity of HF, VHF and UHF radio signals that are used for ground-to-ground and space-to-ground communication and navigation. The degree to which such systems can be compromised depends in large part on the spatial distribution of the structured regions in the ionosphere and the background plasma density in which they are embedded. In order to address these challenges it is necessary to accurately distinguish the background ionospheric conditions that favor the generation of irregularities from those that do not. Additionally we must relate the evolution of those conditions to the subsequent evolution of the irregular plasma regions themselves. The background ionospheric conditions are conveniently described by latitudinal profiles of the plasma density at nearly constant altitude, which describe the effects of ExB drifts and neutral winds, while the appearance and growth of plasma structure requires committed observations from the ground from at least one fixed longitude. This talk will present an international collaborative CubeSat mission called SPORT that stands for the Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task. This mission will advance our understanding of the nature and evolution of ionospheric structures around sunset to improve predictions of disturbances that affect radio propagation and telecommunication signals. The science goals will be accomplished by a unique combination of satellite observations from a nearly circular middle inclination orbit and the extensive operation of ground based observations from South America near the magnetic equator. This approach promises Explorer class science at a CubeSat price.

  7. Political CSR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeppesen, Søren; Morsing, Mette

    We engage a discussion of political CSR in SMEs in an African context. Based on critical observations on Western MNC CSR action in emerging economies that holds counterproductive implications for social development, political economists have argued that business profit far more than society...... development in local African communities. Our findings extend political CSR research by directing attention to how the corporate influence in developing economies does not only emerge from MNCs but is also established and retained by SMEs CSR work....

  8. Predicting and memorizing observed action: differential premotor cortex involvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stadler, Waltraud; Schubotz, Ricarda I; von Cramon, D Yves; Springer, Anne; Graf, Markus; Prinz, Wolfgang

    2011-05-01

    Many studies have shown the involvement of the premotor cortex in action observation, recognizing this region as the neural marker of action simulation (i.e., internal modeling on the basis of the observer's own motor repertoire). So far, however, we have remained unaware of how action simulation differs from more general action representation in terms of premotor activation. The present fMRI experiment is the first to demonstrate how premotor structures contribute to action simulation as opposed to other action-related cognitive tasks, such as maintaining action representations. Using similar stimuli, a prediction condition requiring internal simulation of transiently occluded actions was compared to three different action-related control tasks differing solely in task instructions. Results showed right pre-SMA activation as a correlate of maintaining action representations in general. Moreover, the prediction condition was most efficient in activating the left pre-SMA and left PMd. These results suggest that the conjoint activation of the pre-SMA and PMd reflects a core neural driver of action simulation. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  9. The cases of observance and violation of politeness maxims by communicants in the ego-state of natural Child

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Гульнара Фанзиловна Гизатова

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, the study of human communication is of great importance in linguistics and psychology. In order to achieve smooth and conflict-free interaction it is necessary not only to respect the rules of politeness, but also to take into account the position of the speaker and the addressee. This explains the need to study many psychological factors in communication. This paper studies the ego-state of Natural Child in speech communication. Investigating the behavior of communicants in the ego-state of Natural Child, we rely on the theory of transactional analysis (E. Bern 1961 . According to this theory, the behavior of the speaker and the addressee in the ego-states of Natural Child varies from curious, inspiring, dreamy, and natural to the selfish, spiteful, shameless and impatient. The material for investigation is the dialogs from British and American fiction of XIX-XXI centuries. The dialogs contain the speaker and addressee’s replicas, meeting the essential requirements of the Principle of Politeness (G. Leech 1983 and the theory of transactional analysis. In our work we have applied hypothetical-deductive method, and methods of definitional and contextual analysis. The anylisis of our material demonstrates that communicants in the ego-state of Natural Child observe the maxims of generosity, tact and agreement, and violate the maxims of approbation, modesty and tact. Thus, the implementation of politeness maxims by communicants in ego-state of Natural Child depends entirely on their behavior.

  10. Social and economic ideologies differentially predict prejudice across the political spectrum, but social issues are most divisive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Jarret T; Brandt, Mark J; Inbar, Yoel; Chambers, John R; Motyl, Matt

    2017-03-01

    Liberals and conservatives both express prejudice toward ideologically dissimilar others (Brandt et al., 2014). Previous work on ideological prejudice did not take advantage of evidence showing that ideology is multidimensional, with social and economic ideologies representing related but separable belief systems. In 5 studies (total N = 4912), we test 3 competing hypotheses of a multidimensional account of ideological prejudice. The dimension-specific symmetry hypothesis predicts that social and economic ideologies differentially predict prejudice against targets who are perceived to vary on the social and economic political dimensions, respectively. The social primacy hypothesis predicts that such ideological worldview conflict is experienced more strongly along the social than economic dimension. The social-specific asymmetry hypothesis predicts that social conservatives will be more prejudiced than social liberals, with no specific hypotheses for the economic dimension. Using multiple target groups, multiple prejudice measures (e.g., global evaluations, behavior), and multiple social and economic ideology measures (self-placement, issue positions), we found relatively consistent support for the dimension-specific symmetry and social primacy hypotheses, and no support for the social-specific asymmetry hypothesis. These results suggest that worldview conflict and negative intergroup attitudes and behaviors are dimension-specific, but that the social dimension appears to inspire more political conflict than the economic dimension. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  11. Climato-economic livability predicts societal collectivism and political autocracy better than parasitic stress does.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van de Vliert, Evert; Postmes, Tom

    2012-04-01

    A 121-nation study of societal collectivism and a 174-nation study of political autocracy show that parasitic stress does not account for any variation in these components of culture once the interactive impacts of climatic demands and income resources have been accounted for. Climato-economic livability is a viable rival explanation for the reported effects of parasitic stress on culture.

  12. Do inferences of competence from faces predict political selection in authoritarian regimes? Evidence from China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Stan Hok-Wui; Zeng, Yu

    2017-08-01

    Candidate appearance is a significant predictor of election outcomes in democracies because voters often make inference of competence based on facial appearance. Do inferences of competence from faces matter in autocracies? In this article, we study the effects of candidate appearance on the selection of three types of Chinese officials: (1) rural deputies elected to a local people's congress (LPC), (2) urban deputies elected to the LPC, and (3) unelected mayors and bureaucrats. We find that facial competence cues are relevant only to the votes received by rural LPC candidates. Our findings suggest the importance of information accessibility in political selection. In particular, the "selectorate" of mayors and bureaucrats do not need facial appearance cues because they have access to substantive information about the quality of political candidates. Our findings provide a possible explanation for the resilience of some autocracies: they are able to identify talent through an informative, albeit non-electoral, selection mechanism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. The psychology of intelligence analysis: drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellers, Barbara; Stone, Eric; Atanasov, Pavel; Rohrbaugh, Nick; Metz, S Emlen; Ungar, Lyle; Bishop, Michael M; Horowitz, Michael; Merkle, Ed; Tetlock, Philip

    2015-03-01

    This article extends psychological methods and concepts into a domain that is as profoundly consequential as it is poorly understood: intelligence analysis. We report findings from a geopolitical forecasting tournament that assessed the accuracy of more than 150,000 forecasts of 743 participants on 199 events occurring over 2 years. Participants were above average in intelligence and political knowledge relative to the general population. Individual differences in performance emerged, and forecasting skills were surprisingly consistent over time. Key predictors were (a) dispositional variables of cognitive ability, political knowledge, and open-mindedness; (b) situational variables of training in probabilistic reasoning and participation in collaborative teams that shared information and discussed rationales (Mellers, Ungar, et al., 2014); and (c) behavioral variables of deliberation time and frequency of belief updating. We developed a profile of the best forecasters; they were better at inductive reasoning, pattern detection, cognitive flexibility, and open-mindedness. They had greater understanding of geopolitics, training in probabilistic reasoning, and opportunities to succeed in cognitively enriched team environments. Last but not least, they viewed forecasting as a skill that required deliberate practice, sustained effort, and constant monitoring of current affairs. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  14. An observation on the variance of a predicted response in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... these properties and computational simplicity. To avoid over fitting, along with the obvious advantage of having a simpler equation, it is shown that the addition of a variable to a regression equation does not reduce the variance of a predicted response. Key words: Linear regression; Partitioned matrix; Predicted response ...

  15. Political science. Reverse-engineering censorship in China: randomized experimentation and participant observation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Gary; Pan, Jennifer; Roberts, Margaret E

    2014-08-22

    Existing research on the extensive Chinese censorship organization uses observational methods with well-known limitations. We conducted the first large-scale experimental study of censorship by creating accounts on numerous social media sites, randomly submitting different texts, and observing from a worldwide network of computers which texts were censored and which were not. We also supplemented interviews with confidential sources by creating our own social media site, contracting with Chinese firms to install the same censoring technologies as existing sites, and--with their software, documentation, and even customer support--reverse-engineering how it all works. Our results offer rigorous support for the recent hypothesis that criticisms of the state, its leaders, and their policies are published, whereas posts about real-world events with collective action potential are censored. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  16. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Daily Precipitation Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observational reports of daily precipitation (1200 UTC to 1200 UTC) are made by members of the NWS Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) network; NWS...

  17. Climatological Observations for Maritime Prediction and Analysis Support Service (COMPASS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    OConnor, A.; Kirtman, B. P.; Harrison, S.; Gorman, J.

    2016-02-01

    Current US Navy forecasting systems cannot easily incorporate extended-range forecasts that can improve mission readiness and effectiveness; ensure safety; and reduce cost, labor, and resource requirements. If Navy operational planners had systems that incorporated these forecasts, they could plan missions using more reliable and longer-term weather and climate predictions. Further, using multi-model forecast ensembles instead of single forecasts would produce higher predictive performance. Extended-range multi-model forecast ensembles, such as those available in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), are ideal for system integration because of their high skill predictions; however, even higher skill predictions can be produced if forecast model ensembles are combined correctly. While many methods for weighting models exist, the best method in a given environment requires expert knowledge of the models and combination methods.We present an innovative approach that uses machine learning to combine extended-range predictions from multi-model forecast ensembles and generate a probabilistic forecast for any region of the globe up to 12 months in advance. Our machine-learning approach uses 30 years of hindcast predictions to learn patterns of forecast model successes and failures. Each model is assigned a weight for each environmental condition, 100 km2 region, and day given any expected environmental information. These weights are then applied to the respective predictions for the region and time of interest to effectively stitch together a single, coherent probabilistic forecast. Our experimental results demonstrate the benefits of our approach to produce extended-range probabilistic forecasts for regions and time periods of interest that are superior, in terms of skill, to individual NMME forecast models and commonly weighted models. The probabilistic forecast leverages the strengths of three NMME forecast models to predict environmental conditions for an

  18. Playing, sitting out, and observing the game: an investigation of faculty members' perspectives on political behavior in ethical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medeiros, Kelsey E; Gibson, Carter; Mecca, Jensen T; Giorgini, Vincent; Connelly, Shane; Mumford, Michael D

    2015-01-01

    Ethical dilemmas are inherently ambiguous, complex, and ill-defined. Additionally, these dilemmas involve multiple stakeholders. These characteristics may induce political behavior as a resolution tactic. Thus, the goal of the present effort was to investigate perspectives on politics among researchers in an ethical decision-making context. A qualitative analysis of interviews with university faculty members revealed that faculty members' perspectives on political behavior in an ethical decision-making context fall into a number of categories, including positive, negative, and realistic views of political activity. The implications of these varying perspectives on ethical decision making are discussed.

  19. Predictability of future attacks by migraineurs: a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, X Henry; Golden, Wendy; Bolge, Susan C; Katic, Bozena; Chen, Ya-Ting; Wagner, Samuel; Cady, Roger

    2010-09-01

    To determine the predictability of future migraine attacks and to describe the effect of migraine on daily life during and between migraine attacks. Migraine is associated with substantial economic and humanistic burden. There is growing evidence that early intervention with triptans results in better treatment outcomes. However, this is dependent on a patient's preparedness for an attack including having abortive medications readily accessible at headache onset. Physician-diagnosed adult migraine sufferers, who treat with prescription or over-the-counter medications, completed 2 self-reported, Internet-based questionnaires, administered at baseline and following the resolution of the next migraine attack. The baseline questionnaire included the Migraine Disability Assessment questionnaire (MIDAS), questions about experiences on days between attacks, predictions of the date, time of day (5 time windows), and sufferer's location (4 places) at the start of their next migraine. At follow-up, information was collected in the similar fashion about the date, time of day, and sufferer's location at the start of their most recent migraine. A total of 1519 migraine sufferers completed the baseline questionnaire and 877 (57.7%) completed the follow-up. At baseline, 58.7% experienced moderate to severe disability from headache, based on MIDAS. Only 4.0% were able to predict the exact date of their next migraine; 21.24% predicted next migraine within 3 days. Larger proportions (46.6%) were able to accurately predict time of day or location (70.7%) of their next migraine. In the past 3 months, 92.6% reported that they were forced to change daily plans because of migraine. Because of fear of getting a migraine, 20.2% had avoided and 27.0% had changed a work commitment, and 27.3% had avoided and 28.2% had changed social plans. Migraine sufferers are generally unable to predict onset of the next migraine. Lack of predictability heightens the importance of education and

  20. Polarization in the media during an election campaign: a dynamic network model predicting support and attack among political actors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Nooy, W.; Kleinnijenhuis, J.

    2013-01-01

    In multiparty election campaigns, many political parties and candidates compete for media attention, voters, and a government majority. Negative campaigning, which is often newsworthy, is an attractive strategy in the competition for media attention. However, political support for another party

  1. Polarization in the media during an election campaign: A dynamic network model predicting support and attack among political actors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Nooy, W.; Kleinnijenhuis, J.

    2013-01-01

    In multiparty election campaigns, many political parties and candidates compete for media attention, voters, and a government majority. Negative campaigning, which is often newsworthy, is an attractive strategy in the competition for media attention. However, political support for another party

  2. Using Earth Observations to Understand and Predict Infectious Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soebiyanto, Radina P.; Kiang, Richard

    2015-01-01

    This presentation discusses the processes from data collection and processing to analysis involved in unraveling patterns between disease outbreaks and the surrounding environment and meteorological conditions. We used these patterns to estimate when and where disease outbreaks will occur. As a case study, we will present our work on assessing the relationship between meteorological conditions and influenza in Central America. Our work represents the discovery, prescriptive and predictive aspects of data analytics.

  3. The Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task (SPORT) Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spann, James; Swenson, Charles; Durao, Otavio; Loures, Luis; Heelis, Rod; Bishop, Rebecca; Le, Guan; Abdu, Mangalathayil; Krause, Linda; Denardin, Clezio; hide

    2017-01-01

    SPORT is a science mission using a 6U CubeSat and integrated ground network that will (1) advance understanding and (2) enable improved predictions of scintillation occurrence that impact GPS signals and radio communications. This is the science of Space Weather. SPORT is an international partnership with NASA, U.S. institutions, the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE), and the Technical Aeronautics Institute under the Brazilian Air Force Command Department (DCTA/ITA).

  4. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Pan Evaporation Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observational reports of daily pan evaporation (1200 UTC to 1200 UTC) are made by members of the NWS Cooperative Network (COOP) or supplemental networks of NOAA's...

  5. The First Galaxies Theoretical Predictions and Observational Clues

    CERN Document Server

    Mobasher, Bahram; Bromm, Volker

    2013-01-01

    New observations of the period between the cosmic recombination and the end of reionization are posing intriguing questions about where the first generations of stars were formed, how the first galaxies were assembled, whether these galaxies have low redshift counterparts, and what role the early galaxies played in the reionization process. Combining the new observational data with theoretical models can shed new light on open issues regarding the star formation process, its role in the reionization of the Universe, and the metal enrichment in galaxies at those early epochs. This volume brings together leading experts in the field to discuss our current level of understanding and what may come in the near future as our observational as well as theoretical tools improve. The book confronts the theory of how the first stars, black holes, and galaxies formed with current and planned observations. This synthesis is very timely, just ahead of the establishment of major new facilities, such as the James Webb Space ...

  6. Observant, Nonaggressive Temperament Predicts Theory of Mind Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wellman, Henry M.; Lane, Jonathan D.; LaBounty, Jennifer; Olson, Sheryl L.

    2010-01-01

    Temperament dimensions influence children’s approach to and participation in social interactive experiences which reflect and impact children’s social understandings. Therefore, temperament differences might substantially impact theory of mind development in early childhood. Using longitudinal data, we report that certain early temperament characteristics (at age 3) – lack of aggressiveness, a shy-withdrawn stance to social interaction, and social-perceptual sensitivity – predict children’s more advanced theory-of-mind understanding two years later. The findings contribute to our understanding of how theory of mind develops in the formative preschool period; they may also inform debates as to the evolutionary origins of theory of mind. PMID:21499499

  7. Status of standard model predictions and uncertainties for electroweak observables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kniehl, B.A.

    1993-11-01

    Recent progress in theoretical predictions of electroweak parameters beyond one loop in the standard model is reviewed. The topics include universal corrections of O(G F 2 M H 2 M W 2 ), O(G F 2 m t 4 ), O(α s G F M W 2 ), and those due to virtual t anti t threshold effects, as well as specific corrections to Γ(Z → b anti b) of O(G F 2 m t 4 ), O(α s G F m t 2 ), and O(α s 2 m b 2 /M Z 2 ). An update of the hadronic contributions to Δα is presented. Theoretical uncertainties, other than those due to the lack of knowledge of M H and m t , are estimated. (orig.)

  8. Diversity policy, social dominance, and intergroup relations: predicting prejudice in changing social and political contexts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guimond, Serge; Crisp, Richard J; De Oliveira, Pierre; Kamiejski, Rodolphe; Kteily, Nour; Kuepper, Beate; Lalonde, Richard N; Levin, Shana; Pratto, Felicia; Tougas, Francine; Sidanius, Jim; Zick, Andreas

    2013-06-01

    In contrast to authors of previous single-nation studies, we propose that supporting multiculturalism (MC) or assimilation (AS) is likely to have different effects in different countries, depending on the diversity policy in place in a particular country and the associated norms. A causal model of intergroup attitudes and behaviors, integrating both country-specific factors (attitudes and perceived norms related to a particular diversity policy) and general social-psychological determinants (social dominance orientation), was tested among participants from countries where the pro-diversity policy was independently classified as low, medium, or high (N = 1,232). Results showed that (a) anti-Muslim prejudice was significantly reduced when the pro-diversity policy was high; (b) countries differed strongly in perceived norms related to MC and AS, in ways consistent with the actual diversity policy in each country and regardless of participants' personal attitudes toward MC and AS; (c) as predicted, when these norms were salient, due to subtle priming, structural equation modeling with country included as a variable provided support for the proposed model, suggesting that the effect of country on prejudice can be successfully accounted by it; and (d) consistent with the claim that personal support for MC and AS played a different role in different countries, within-country mediation analyses provided evidence that personal attitudes toward AS mediated the effect of social dominance orientation on prejudice when pro-diversity policy was low, whereas personal attitudes toward MC was the mediator when pro-diversity policy was high. Thus, the critical variables shaping prejudice can vary across nations. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  9. Observed Measures of Negative Parenting Predict Brain Development during Adolescence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Whittle

    Full Text Available Limited attention has been directed toward the influence of non-abusive parenting behaviour on brain structure in adolescents. It has been suggested that environmental influences during this period are likely to impact the way that the brain develops over time. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between aggressive and positive parenting behaviors on brain development from early to late adolescence, and in turn, psychological and academic functioning during late adolescence, using a multi-wave longitudinal design. Three hundred and sixty seven magnetic resonance imaging (MRI scans were obtained over three time points from 166 adolescents (11-20 years. At the first time point, observed measures of maternal aggressive and positive behaviors were obtained. At the final time point, measures of psychological and academic functioning were obtained. Results indicated that a higher frequency of maternal aggressive behavior was associated with alterations in the development of right superior frontal and lateral parietal cortical thickness, and of nucleus accumbens volume, in males. Development of the superior frontal cortex in males mediated the relationship between maternal aggressive behaviour and measures of late adolescent functioning. We suggest that our results support an association between negative parenting and adolescent functioning, which may be mediated by immature or delayed brain maturation.

  10. Observed and predicted performance of the global IMS infrasound network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Pichon, A.; Ceranna, L.; Landes, M.

    2012-04-01

    The International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network is being deployed to monitor compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Global-scale analyses of data recorded by this network indicate that the detection capability exhibits strong spatio-temporal variations. Previous studies estimated radiated acoustic source energy from remote infrasound observations using empirical yield-scaling relations, which account for the along-path stratospheric winds. Although the empirical wind correction reduces the variance in the explosive energy versus pressure relationship, large error remains in the yield estimates. Numerical modeling techniques are now widely employed to investigate the role of different factors describing atmospheric infrasound sources and propagation. Here we develop a theoretical attenuation relation from a large set of numerical simulations using the Parabolic Equation method. This relation accounts for the effects of the source frequency; geometrical spreading and dissipation; and realistic atmospheric specifications on the pressure wave attenuation. Compared with previous studies, the derived attenuation relation incorporates a more realistic physical description of infrasound propagation. By incorporating real ambient noise information at the receivers, we obtain the minimum detectable source amplitude in the frequency band of interest for detecting explosions. Empirical relations between the source spectrum and explosion yield are used to infer detection thresholds in tons of TNT equivalent. In the context of future verification of the CTBT, the obtained attenuation relation provides a more realistic picture of the spatio-temporal variability of the IMS network performance. The attenuation relation could also be used in the design and maintenance of an arbitrary infrasound monitoring network.

  11. Perceived discrimination predicts increased support for political rights and life satisfaction mediated by ethnic identity: A longitudinal analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stronge, Samantha; Sengupta, Nikhil K; Barlow, Fiona Kate; Osborne, Danny; Houkamau, Carla A; Sibley, Chris G

    2016-07-01

    The aim of the current research is to test predictions derived from the rejection-identification model and research on collective action using cross-sectional (Study 1) and longitudinal (Study 2) methods. Specifically, an integration of these 2 literatures suggests that recognition of discrimination can have simultaneous positive relationships with well-being and engagement in collective action via the formation of a strong ingroup identity. We test these predictions in 2 studies using data from a large national probability sample of Māori (the indigenous peoples of New Zealand), collected as part of the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study (Ns for Study 1 and 2 were 1,981 and 1,373, respectively). Consistent with the extant research, Study 1 showed that perceived discrimination was directly linked with decreased life satisfaction, but indirectly linked with increased life satisfaction through higher levels of ethnic identification. Perceived discrimination was also directly linked with increased support for Māori rights and indirectly linked with increased support for Māori rights through higher levels of ethnic identification. Study 2 replicated these findings using longitudinal data and identified multiple bidirectional paths between perceived discrimination, ethnic identity, well-being, and support for collective action. These findings replicate and extend the rejection-identification model in a novel cultural context by demonstrating via cross-sectional (Study 1) and longitudinal (Study 2) analyses that the recognition of discrimination can both motivate support for political rights and increase well-being by strengthening ingroup identity. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Political CSR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeppesen, Søren; Morsing, Mette

    We engage a discussion of political CSR in SMEs in an African context. Based on critical observations on Western MNC CSR action in emerging economies that holds counterproductive implications for social development, political economists have argued that business profit far more than society...... development in local African communities. Our findings extend political CSR research by directing attention to how the corporate influence in developing economies does not only emerge from MNCs but is also established and retained by SMEs CSR work....... in developing economies from CSR. In this paper we argue that local SMEs CSR work have strong influence in developing economies, that also includes counterproductive influence for social development. Based on empirical findings from African countries, we conceptualize how CSR in African SMEs differ from...

  13. The political uses of astrology: predicting the illness and death of princes, kings and popes in the Italian Renaissance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azzolini, Monica

    2010-06-01

    This paper examines the production and circulation of astrological prognostications regarding the illness and death of kings, princes, and popes in the Italian Renaissance (ca. 1470-1630). The distribution and consumption of this type of astrological information was often closely linked to the specific political situation in which they were produced. Depending on the astrological techniques used (prorogations, interrogations, or annual revolutions), and the media in which they appeared (private letters or printed prognostica) these prognostications fulfilled different functions in the information economy of Renaissance Italy. Some were used to legitimise the rule of a political leader, others to do just the opposite. Astrological prorogations and interrogations were often used to plan military and political strategies in case of the illness or death of a political leader, while astrological prognostications were generally written to promote certain political leaders while undermining others. While certainly often partisan to this game, astrologers, for their part, worked within a very well established tradition that gave authority to their forecasts. This paper argues that, as indicators of deeper political tensions otherwise not always explicitly manifest, these prognostications are privileged sources of information providing a better understanding of the political history of the period.

  14. Politics without Politics

    OpenAIRE

    Dean, Jodi

    2009-01-01

    textabstractProf.dr. Jodi Dean, hoogleraar politieke filosofie aan Hobart and William Smith Colleges (Geneva, New York), sprak donderdag 19 februari 2009 haar inaugurele rede uit, getiteld "Politics without politics". Dean is dit jaar Erasmus Professor op de Erasmus Chair of Humanities in de Faculteit der Wijsbegeerte. De Erasmus Wisselleerstoel is ingesteld door de G. Ph. Verhagen Stichting. V In haar oratie gaat Dean in op het thema democratie in relatie tot linkse politiek. Enkele politiek...

  15. Relationships of Measurement Error and Prediction Error in Observed-Score Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moses, Tim

    2012-01-01

    The focus of this paper is assessing the impact of measurement errors on the prediction error of an observed-score regression. Measures are presented and described for decomposing the linear regression's prediction error variance into parts attributable to the true score variance and the error variances of the dependent variable and the predictor…

  16. THe Observing-system Research and predictability experiment ER2 MODIS Airborne Simmulator

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — THORPEX_ER2_MAS data are THe Observing-system Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX) ER_2 MODIS Airborne Simulator (MAS) Data in HDF covering Hawaii and...

  17. New England observed and predicted August stream/river temperature daily range points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted August stream/river temperature daily ranges in New England based on a spatial statistical...

  18. New England observed and predicted median August stream/river temperature points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted median August stream/river temperatures in New England based on a spatial statistical network...

  19. New England observed and predicted August stream/river temperature maximum daily rate of change points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted August stream/river temperature maximum negative rate of change in New England based on a...

  20. New England observed and predicted Julian day of maximum growing season stream/river temperature points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted Julian day of maximum growing season stream/river temperatures in New England based on a spatial...

  1. New England observed and predicted median July stream/river temperature points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted median July stream/river temperatures in New England based on a spatial statistical network...

  2. New England observed and predicted July stream/river temperature daily range points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted July stream/river temperature daily ranges in New England based on a spatial statistical network...

  3. New England observed and predicted growing season maximum stream/river temperature points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted growing season maximum stream/river temperatures in New England based on a spatial statistical...

  4. Life beyond MSE and R2 — improving validation of predictive models with observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papritz, Andreas; Nussbaum, Madlene

    2017-04-01

    Machine learning and statistical predictive methods are evaluated by the closeness of predictions to observations of a test dataset. Common criteria for rating predictive methods are bias and mean square error (MSE), characterizing systematic and random prediction errors. Many studies also report R2-values, but their meaning is not always clear (correlation between observations and predictions or MSE skill score; Wilks, 2011). The same criteria are also used for choosing tuning parameters of predictive procedures by cross-validation and bagging (e.g. Hastie et al., 2009). For evident reasons, atmospheric sciences have developed a rich box of tools for forecast verification. Specific criteria have been proposed for evaluating deterministic and probabilistic predictions of binary, multinomial, ordinal and continuous responses (see reviews by Wilks, 2011, Jollie and Stephenson, 2012 and Gneiting et al., 2007). It appears that these techniques are not very well-known in the geosciences community interested in machine learning. In our presentation we review techniques that offer more insight into proximity of data and predictions than bias, MSE and R2 alone. We mention here only examples: (i) Graphing observations vs. predictions is usually more appropriate than the reverse (Piñeiro et al., 2008). (ii) The decomposition of the Brier score score (= MSE for probabilistic predictions of binary yes/no data) into reliability and resolution reveals (conditional) bias and capability of discriminating yes/no observations by the predictions. We illustrate the approaches by applications from digital soil mapping studies. Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F., and Raftery, A. E. (2007). Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 69, 243-268. Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., and Friedman, J. (2009). The Elements of Statistical Learning; Data Mining, Inference and Prediction. Springer, New York, second edition. Jolliffe, I. T. and

  5. Ensemble-sensitivity Analysis Based Observation Targeting for Mesoscale Convection Forecasts and Factors Influencing Observation-Impact Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, A.; Weiss, C.; Ancell, B. C.

    2017-12-01

    The basic premise of observation targeting is that additional observations, when gathered and assimilated with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, will produce a more accurate forecast related to a specific phenomenon. Ensemble-sensitivity analysis (ESA; Ancell and Hakim 2007; Torn and Hakim 2008) is a tool capable of accurately estimating the proper location of targeted observations in areas that have initial model uncertainty and large error growth, as well as predicting the reduction of forecast variance due to the assimilated observation. ESA relates an ensemble of NWP model forecasts, specifically an ensemble of scalar forecast metrics, linearly to earlier model states. A thorough investigation is presented to determine how different factors of the forecast process are impacting our ability to successfully target new observations for mesoscale convection forecasts. Our primary goals for this work are to determine: (1) If targeted observations hold more positive impact over non-targeted (i.e. randomly chosen) observations; (2) If there are lead-time constraints to targeting for convection; (3) How inflation, localization, and the assimilation filter influence impact prediction and realized results; (4) If there exist differences between targeted observations at the surface versus aloft; and (5) how physics errors and nonlinearity may augment observation impacts.Ten cases of dryline-initiated convection between 2011 to 2013 are simulated within a simplified OSSE framework and presented here. Ensemble simulations are produced from a cycling system that utilizes the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model v3.8.1 within the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). A "truth" (nature) simulation is produced by supplying a 3-km WRF run with GFS analyses and integrating the model forward 90 hours, from the beginning of ensemble initialization through the end of the forecast. Target locations for surface and radiosonde observations are computed 6, 12, and

  6. Prediction and Observation of Post-Admission Hematoma Expansion in Patients with Intracerebral Haemorrhage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian eOvesen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Post-admission hematoma expansion in patients with intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH comprises a simultaneous major clinical problem and a possible target for medical intervention. In any case, the ability to predict and observe hematoma expansion is of great clinical importance. We review radiological concepts in predicting and observing post-admission hematoma expansion. Hematoma expansion can be observed within the first 24 hours after symptom onset, but predominantly occurs in the early hours. Thus capturing markers of on-going bleeding on imaging techniques could predict hematoma expansion. The spot sign observed on CTA is believed to represent on-going bleeding and is to date the most well investigated and reliable radiological predictor of hematoma expansion as well as functional outcome and mortality. On non-contrast CT, the presence of foci of hypoattenuation within the hematoma along with the hematoma-size is reported to be predictive of hematoma expansion and outcome. Because patients tend to arrive earlier to the hospital, a larger fraction of acute ICH-patients must be expected to undergo hematoma expansion. This renders observation and radiological follow-up investigations increasingly relevant. Transcranial duplex sonography has in recent years proven to be able to estimate hematoma volume with good precision and could be a valuable tool in bedside serial observation of acute ICH patients. Future studies will elucidate, if better prediction and observation of post-admission hematoma expansion can help select patients, who will benefit from haemostatic treatment.

  7. Prediction and Observation of Post-Admission Hematoma Expansion in Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ovesen, Christian; Havsteen, Inger; Rosenbaum, Sverre; Christensen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Post-admission hematoma expansion in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) comprises a simultaneous major clinical problem and a possible target for medical intervention. In any case, the ability to predict and observe hematoma expansion is of great clinical importance. We review radiological concepts in predicting and observing post-admission hematoma expansion. Hematoma expansion can be observed within the first 24 h after symptom onset, but predominantly occurs in the early hours. Thus capturing markers of on-going bleeding on imaging techniques could predict hematoma expansion. The spot sign observed on computed tomography angiography is believed to represent on-going bleeding and is to date the most well investigated and reliable radiological predictor of hematoma expansion as well as functional outcome and mortality. On non-contrast CT, the presence of foci of hypoattenuation within the hematoma along with the hematoma-size is reported to be predictive of hematoma expansion and outcome. Because patients tend to arrive earlier to the hospital, a larger fraction of acute ICH-patients must be expected to undergo hematoma expansion. This renders observation and radiological follow-up investigations increasingly relevant. Transcranial duplex sonography has in recent years proven to be able to estimate hematoma volume with good precision and could be a valuable tool in bedside serial observation of acute ICH-patients. Future studies will elucidate, if better prediction and observation of post-admission hematoma expansion can help select patients, who will benefit from hemostatic treatment. PMID:25324825

  8. Improving flood prediction by assimilation of the distributed streamflow observations with variable uncertainty and intermittent behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2015-04-01

    Data assimilation techniques have been used in the last decades to integrate water measurements for physical sensors in mathematical model in order to improve flood prediction. Parallel to this, the continued technological improvement has stimulated the spread of low-cost sensors used to infer hydrological variables in a more distributed way but less accurately. The main goal of this study is to demonstrate how assimilation of streamflow observations having variable uncertainty and intermittent characteristics can improve flood prediction using hydrological model. The methodology is applied in the Brue catchment, South West of England. The catchment is divided in small sub-basins, about 2km2 resolution, in order to represent the spatial variability of the streamflow observations by means of a semi-distributed Kalinin-Milyukov-Nash Cascade model. The measured precipitation values are used as perfect forecast input in the hydrological model. Then, an Ensemble Kalman filter is implemented and adapted to account for streamflow observations having random uncertainty and coming at irregular time steps. Due to the fact that distributed observations are not available within the Brue basin, synthetic streamflow values are generated. The results show how streamflow observations having variable uncertainty can improve the flood prediction according to the location from which these observations are coming. Overall, streamflow observations coming from low cost sensors can be integrated with physical sensors observation to improve flood prediction. This study is part of the FP7 European Project WeSenseIt Citizen Water Observatory (www.http://wesenseit.eu/).

  9. On Extrapolating Past the Range of Observed Data When Making Statistical Predictions in Ecology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul B Conn

    Full Text Available Ecologists are increasingly using statistical models to predict animal abundance and occurrence in unsampled locations. The reliability of such predictions depends on a number of factors, including sample size, how far prediction locations are from the observed data, and similarity of predictive covariates in locations where data are gathered to locations where predictions are desired. In this paper, we propose extending Cook's notion of an independent variable hull (IVH, developed originally for application with linear regression models, to generalized regression models as a way to help assess the potential reliability of predictions in unsampled areas. Predictions occurring inside the generalized independent variable hull (gIVH can be regarded as interpolations, while predictions occurring outside the gIVH can be regarded as extrapolations worthy of additional investigation or skepticism. We conduct a simulation study to demonstrate the usefulness of this metric for limiting the scope of spatial inference when conducting model-based abundance estimation from survey counts. In this case, limiting inference to the gIVH substantially reduces bias, especially when survey designs are spatially imbalanced. We also demonstrate the utility of the gIVH in diagnosing problematic extrapolations when estimating the relative abundance of ribbon seals in the Bering Sea as a function of predictive covariates. We suggest that ecologists routinely use diagnostics such as the gIVH to help gauge the reliability of predictions from statistical models (such as generalized linear, generalized additive, and spatio-temporal regression models.

  10. Temporal prediction of touch instant during observation of human and robot grasping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craighero, Laila; Bonetti, Francesco; Massarenti, Luca; Canto, Rosario; Fabbri Destro, Maddalena; Fadiga, Luciano

    2008-04-15

    The aim of the present work was to test the ability to predict the instant at which a grasping hand touches an object. Our hypothesis was that, because of the activation of the mirror-neuron system, the same predictive process necessary for action execution should be active during observation. Experimental evidence indicates, however, that not only observed actions but also observed objects automatically activate observer's motor repertoire. What happens, therefore, if the observed action is different from the one automatically evoked by the vision of the object? To answer this question we presented subjects with two different grasping actions: the one most suitable for the presented object and a less appropriate one. Subjects were required to detect the instant at which the demonstrator's hand touched the object. In a further condition, subjects were required to detect the outcome of an action performed by a robotic arm moving with constant kinematics. Results showed that while in the case of robot grasping subjects responded before the touch instant, in the case of human grasping the response followed the touch instant, but occurred much earlier than simple reaction times. This demonstrates that subjects were able to predict the outcome of the seen action. The predictive capability was specifically enhanced during observation of the "suitable" grasping. We interpret these results as an indication of the synergic contribution of both object-related (canonical) and action-related (mirror) neurons during observation of actions directed towards graspable objects.

  11. MEMINIMALKAN MISKONSEPSI PADA MATERI RANGKAIAN LISTRIK DENGAN PEMBELAJARAN PREDICT-OBSERVE-EXPLAIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mursalin

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Minimizing Misconceptions on the Topic of Electric Circuits by Predict-Observe-Explain Learning. This pretest-posttest control group experiment was aimed to improve students’ understanding of the concept and to minimize their misconceptions on the topic of electric circuits. The subjects were se­lected using cluster random sampling from high school students in Gorontalo. The instruments used to collect the data included pretest, posttest and questionnaires. The data were analyzed using t-test. The students' conception profiles were carried out using Certainty of Response Index (CRI technique. The results show the significant difference in the posttest average and normalized gain average between the experimental and the control classes. The results are supported by the fact that misconceptions in the experimental class are smaller than those in the control class. The application of predict-observe-explain learning is effective to improve the understanding of the concept and minimize the misconceptions. Keywords: Predict-Observe-Explain Learning, concept understandings, misconception, electric circuits Abstrak: Meminimalkan Miskonsepsi pada Materi Rangkaian Listrik dengan Pembelajaran Predict-Observe-Predict. Artikel hasil penelitian ini memaparkan mengenai upaya meningkatkan pemahaman konsep dan meminimalkan miskonsepsi pada materi rangkaian listrik dengan menggunakan model pem­belajaran Predict-Observe-Explain (POE. Penelitian dilakukan secara eksperimen dengan pretest-posttest control group design. Subyek penelitian ditentukan dengan teknik cluster random sampling dari siswa SMA kelas X suatu sekolah di Kota Gorontalo. Analisis data dilakukan dengan uji beda rerata gain ternormalisasi antara kelas eksperimen dan kelas kontrol, dan profil konsepsi siswa dianalisis dengan teknik Certainty of Response Index. Hasil penelitian mengungkap bahwa penerapan model pembelajaran POE efektif mening­katkan pemahaman konsep dan meminimalkan

  12. Online News Media, Religious Identity and Their Influence on Gendered Politics: Observations from Malawi’s 2014 Elections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Mavuto Gunde

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The rise of the internet has offered the opportunity for the news media to communicate with audiences in many significant ways that may have profound consequences in the shaping of public opinion and transforming lives in the global sphere. Through a Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA, this article examines ways in which online news media could be used to reinforce gender stereotypes by promoting patriarchal religious beliefs and how this may have huge implications on women empowerment with regard to political leadership roles in developing democracies. The analysis is drawn from 2014 Malawi elections in which a major opposition party used a campaign slogan peppered with sexist religious and cultural connotations to ridicule and vote out of office southern Africa’s first ever female President – Joyce Banda and her People Party (PP. In May 2014, Malawi held national elections and the main contestants were former President Banda representing the PP, Peter Mutharika of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP, Lazarus Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP and Atupele Muluzi of the United Democratic Front (UDF. Mutharika and the DPP won the elections to wrestle away the presidency from Banda and her People’s Party. This article discusses the campaign slogan – Sesa Joyce Sesa (Sweep Joyce Away – created by the DPP to attack former President Banda in which Malawi’s significant online news media sites played a critical role in the diffusion of the gendered campaign mantra to resonate with the religious identity of majority the electorate. The article reflects on the potential of new media to consolidate deep-rooted religious and cultural beliefs that marginalise women for leadership positions and how that may have a huge bearing on abridging gender inequalities particularly in political representation of developing democracies.

  13. PENERAPAN MODEL PEMBELAJARAN PROBLEM BASED INSTRUCTION DENGAN PENDEKATAN PREDICT-OBSERVE-EXPLAIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayu Dwi Listiowati

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This research aimed to determine the effect of Problem Based Instruction learning model with Predict-Observe-Explain approach on chemistry learning outcomes. The population is XI grader Sciences of Senior High School in Brebes for academic year 2011/2012. Initial data analysis showed that the population are normally distributed and homogeneous, so the sampling technique which used is cluster random sampling. From this sampling, XI Science-5 used as a control class (Problem Based Instruction learning model without Predict-Observe-Explain approach and XI Science-1 as an experiment class (Problem Based Instruction with Predict Observe Explain approach. Final data analysis showed that learning outcomes for both classes are normally distributed and have equal variances. In the correlation test, obtained 0.433 of r b value, which showed a middle correlation, so Problem Based Instruction with Predict-ObserveExplain approach has middle effect on chemistry learning outcomes in solubility and solubility product. This learning contributes to student learning outcomes is 19%. The average value of affective and psychomotor in experimental class is better than the control class. Based on this  research, we can conclude that Problem Based Instruction with Predict-Observe-Explain approach has a positive effect on chemistry learning product in Senior High School students.Key Words: Problem Based Instruction Learning 

  14. Observed Emotional and Behavioral Indicators of Motivation Predict School Readiness in Head Start Graduates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berhenke, Amanda; Miller, Alison L; Brown, Eleanor; Seifer, Ronald; Dickstein, Susan

    2011-01-01

    Emotions and behaviors observed during challenging tasks are hypothesized to be valuable indicators of young children's motivation, the assessment of which may be particularly important for children at risk for school failure. The current study demonstrated reliability and concurrent validity of a new observational assessment of motivation in young children. Head Start graduates completed challenging puzzle and trivia tasks during their kindergarten year. Children's emotion expression and task engagement were assessed based on their observed facial and verbal expressions and behavioral cues. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed that observed persistence and shame predicted teacher ratings of children's academic achievement, whereas interest, anxiety, pride, shame, and persistence predicted children's social skills and learning-related behaviors. Children's emotional and behavioral responses to challenge thus appeared to be important indicators of school success. Observation of such responses may be a useful and valid alternative to self-report measures of motivation at this age.

  15. Bullying Predicts Reported Dating Violence and Observed Qualities in Adolescent Dating Relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Wendy E; Wolfe, David A

    2015-10-01

    The relationship between reported bullying, reported dating violence, and dating relationship quality measured through couple observations was examined. Given past research demonstrating similarity between peer and dating contexts, we expected that bullying would predict negative dating experiences. Participants with dating experience (n = 585; 238 males, M(age) = 15.06) completed self-report assessments of bullying and dating violence perpetration and victimization. One month later, 44 opposite-sex dyads (M(age) = 15.19) participated in behavioral observations. In 10-min sessions, couples were asked to rank and discuss areas of relationship conflict while being video-recorded. Qualities of the relationship were later coded by trained observers. Regression analysis revealed that bullying positively predicted dating violence perpetration and victimization. Self-reported bullying also predicted observations of lower relationship support and higher withdrawal. Age and gender interactions further qualified these findings. The bullying of boys, but not girls, was significantly related to dating violence perpetration. Age interactions showed that bullying was positively predictive of dating violence perpetration and victimization for older, but not younger adolescents. Positive affect was also negatively predicted by bullying, but only for girls. These findings add to the growing body of evidence that adolescents carry forward strategies learned in the peer context to their dating relationships. © The Author(s) 2014.

  16. Prediction and observation of post-admission hematoma expansion in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ovesen, Christian; Havsteen, Inger; Rosenbaum, Sverre

    2014-01-01

    Post-admission hematoma expansion in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) comprises a simultaneous major clinical problem and a possible target for medical intervention. In any case, the ability to predict and observe hematoma expansion is of great clinical importance. We review radiologi......Post-admission hematoma expansion in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) comprises a simultaneous major clinical problem and a possible target for medical intervention. In any case, the ability to predict and observe hematoma expansion is of great clinical importance. We review...

  17. Robust Predictive Functional Control for Flight Vehicles Based on Nonlinear Disturbance Observer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yinhui Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel robust predictive functional control based on nonlinear disturbance observer is investigated in order to address the control system design for flight vehicles with significant uncertainties, external disturbances, and measurement noise. Firstly, the nonlinear longitudinal dynamics of the flight vehicle are transformed into linear-like state-space equations with state-dependent coefficient matrices. And then the lumped disturbances are considered in the linear structure predictive model of the predictive functional control to increase the precision of the predictive output and resolve the intractable mismatched disturbance problem. As the lumped disturbances cannot be derived or measured directly, the nonlinear disturbance observer is applied to estimate the lumped disturbances, which are then introduced to the predictive functional control to replace the unknown actual lumped disturbances. Consequently, the robust predictive functional control for the flight vehicle is proposed. Compared with the existing designs, the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed flight control are illustrated and validated in various simulation conditions.

  18. Validation of a priori CME arrival predictions made using real-time heliospheric imager observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker-Hood, Kimberley; Scott, Chris; Owens, Mathew; Jackson, David; Barnard, Luke; Davies, Jackie A.; Crothers, Steve; Lintott, Chris; Simpson, Robert; Savani, Neel P.; Wilkinson, J.; Harder, B.; Eriksson, G. M.; L Baeten, E. M.; Wan Wah, Lily Lau

    2015-01-01

    Between December 2010 and March 2013, volunteers for the Solar Stormwatch (SSW) Citizen Science project have identified and analyzed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the near real-time Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory Heliospheric Imager observations, in order to make "Fearless Forecasts" of CME arrival times and speeds at Earth. Of the 60 predictions of Earth-directed CMEs, 20 resulted in an identifiable Interplanetary CME (ICME) at Earth within 1.5-6 days, with an average error in predicted transit time of 22 h, and average transit time of 82.3 h. The average error in predicting arrival speed is 151 km s-1, with an average arrival speed of 425km s-1. In the same time period, there were 44 CMEs for which there are no corresponding SSW predictions, and there were 600 days on which there was neither a CME predicted nor observed. A number of metrics show that the SSW predictions do have useful forecast skill; however, there is still much room for improvement. We investigate potential improvements by using SSW inputs in three models of ICME propagation: two of constant acceleration and one of aerodynamic drag. We find that taking account of interplanetary acceleration can improve the average errors of transit time to 19 h and arrival speed to 77 km s-1.

  19. Development and validation of PRE-DELIRIC (PREdiction of DELIRium in ICu patients) delirium prediction model for intensive care patients: observational multicentre study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boogaard, M.W. van den; Pickkers, P.; Slooter, A.J.; Kuiper, M.A.; Spronk, P.E.; Voort, P.H. van der; Hoeven, J.G. van der; Donders, R.; Achterberg, T. van; Schoonhoven, L.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a delirium prediction model for adult intensive care patients and determine its additional value compared with prediction by caregivers. DESIGN: Observational multicentre study. SETTING: Five intensive care units in the Netherlands (two university hospitals and

  20. Observational Evidence for Two Cosmological Predictions Made by Bit-String Physics; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noyes, H. Pierre

    2001-01-01

    A decade ago bit-string physics predicted that the baryon/photon ratio at the time of nucleogenesis(eta)= 1 1/256(sup 4) and that the dark matter/baryonic matter ratio(Omega)(sub DM)/(Omega)(sub B)= 12.7. Accepting that the normalized Hubble constant is constrained observationally to lie in the range 0.6 and lt; h(sub 0) and lt; 0.8, this translates into a prediction that 0.325 and gt;(Omega)(sub M) and gt; 0.183. This and a prediction by E.D. Jones, using a model-independent argument and ideas with which bit-string physics is not inconsistent, that the cosmological constant(Omega)(sub(Lambda))= 0.6(+-) 0.1 are in reasonable agreement with recent cosmological observations, including the BOOMERANG data

  1. Sanctification of marriage and spiritual intimacy predicting observed marital interactions across the transition to parenthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusner, Katherine G; Mahoney, Annette; Pargament, Kenneth I; DeMaris, Alfred

    2014-10-01

    We examined whether 164 heterosexual, married couples' reports of the sanctification of their marriage and their spiritual intimacy predicted their observed behavior across the transition to parenthood, using highly conservative statistical strategies to control for time-invariant factors and time-varying factors (marital love, collaborative communication skills) that could explain away these links. Spouses provided self-reports of marital sanctification and love, and joint reports of spiritual intimacy and collaboration by each partner. Criterion variables were positive and negative behaviors that spouses exhibited during dyadic discussions of marital conflicts, videotaped during pregnancy and when the couple's first infant was 3, 6, and 12 months old. Using bivariate fixed-effects regression models to control unmeasured time-invariant predictors (e.g., stable traits), his and her sanctification of marriage predicted more observed positivity by 1 or both spouses, and his and her spiritual intimacy predicted more positivity and less negativity by both spouses. Using multivariate regression analyses that controlled for demographic factors, the interdependency of spouses' responses, and salient time-varying marital (spouses' love and collaborative skills), her spiritual intimacy predicted more positivity by both spouses and less negativity by him, and his sanctification marginally predicted more positivity and less negativity by him. Findings offer rigorous causal modeling that spousal reports about marital spirituality influence observed spousal behavior by using longitudinal data to rule out unmeasured and measured third-variable confounds, multiple reporters (husbands, wives), multiple methods (self and joint reports, direct observation), and cross-informant data (spousal reports about him predicting her behavior, and vice versa). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. The emotional eating scale. Can a self-report measure predict observed emotional eating?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Kristin L; Panza, Emily; Appelhans, Bradley M; Whited, Matthew C; Oleski, Jessica L; Pagoto, Sherry L

    2012-04-01

    We assessed the validity of the emotional eating scale (EES) by examining whether the EES predicted food intake following two negative mood inductions. Participants underwent mood inductions for anxiety, anger and neutral mood, then received snack foods in a sham palatability test. EES anxiety, but not anger, predicted intake. Participants high on EES anxiety consumed more snacks during the anxiety mood induction, whereas participants low on EES anxiety consumed less snacks. Results suggest that EES anxiety is a predictor of anxiety-driven eating and may be used to assess emotional eating when direct observation of intake is not possible. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. The Emotional Eating Scale: Can a self-report measure predict observed emotional eating?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Kristin L.; Panza, Emily; Appelhans, Bradley M.; Whited, Matthew C.; Oleski, Jessica L.; Pagoto, Sherry L.

    2012-01-01

    We assessed the validity of the Emotional Eating Scale (EES) by examining whether the EES predicted food intake following two negative mood inductions. Participants underwent mood inductions for anxiety, anger and neutral mood, then received snack foods in a sham palatability test. EES anxiety, but not anger, predicted intake. Participants high on EES anxiety consumed more snacks during the anxiety mood induction, whereas participants low on EES anxiety consumed less snacks. Results suggest that EES anxiety is a predictor of anxiety-driven eating and may be used to assess emotional eating when direct observation of intake is not possible. PMID:22266170

  4. Human dorsal striatum encodes prediction errors during observational learning of instrumental actions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Jeffrey C; Dunne, Simon; Furey, Teresa; O'Doherty, John P

    2012-01-01

    The dorsal striatum plays a key role in the learning and expression of instrumental reward associations that are acquired through direct experience. However, not all learning about instrumental actions require direct experience. Instead, humans and other animals are also capable of acquiring instrumental actions by observing the experiences of others. In this study, we investigated the extent to which human dorsal striatum is involved in observational as well as experiential instrumental reward learning. Human participants were scanned with fMRI while they observed a confederate over a live video performing an instrumental conditioning task to obtain liquid juice rewards. Participants also performed a similar instrumental task for their own rewards. Using a computational model-based analysis, we found reward prediction errors in the dorsal striatum not only during the experiential learning condition but also during observational learning. These results suggest a key role for the dorsal striatum in learning instrumental associations, even when those associations are acquired purely by observing others.

  5. Political innovations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Eva

    2017-01-01

    are mainly interested in assessing and promoting innovations in public service delivery, but have paid little or no attention to the need for innovations in polity, politics and policy. This article develops a research agenda for studying innovations in political institutions, in the political process...... and in policy outputs. It proposes a number of research themes related to political innovations that call for scholarly attention, and identifies push and pull factors influencing the likelihood that these themes will be addressed in future research....

  6. Office Politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storm, Paula; Kelly, Robert; deVries, Susann

    2008-01-01

    People and organizations are inherently political. Library workplace environments have zones of tension and dynamics just like any corporation, often leading to the formation of political camps. These different cliques influence productivity and work-related issues and, at worst, give meetings the feel of the Camp David negotiations. Politics are…

  7. Moral politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rapp, Carolin; Traunmüller, Richard; Freitag, Markus

    2014-01-01

    This article combines the research strands of moral politics and political behavior by focusing on the effect of individual and contextual religiosity on individual vote decisions in popular initiatives and public referenda concerning morally charged issues. We rely on a total of 13 surveys with 1...... American research on moral politics, direct democracies, and the public role of religion....

  8. Advancing coastal ocean modelling, analysis, and prediction for the US Integrated Ocean Observing System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkin, John L.; Rosenfeld, Leslie; Allen, Arthur; Baltes, Rebecca; Baptista, Antonio; He, Ruoying; Hogan, Patrick; Kurapov, Alexander; Mehra, Avichal; Quintrell, Josie; Schwab, David; Signell, Richard; Smith, Jane

    2017-01-01

    This paper outlines strategies that would advance coastal ocean modelling, analysis and prediction as a complement to the observing and data management activities of the coastal components of the US Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS®) and the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS). The views presented are the consensus of a group of US-based researchers with a cross-section of coastal oceanography and ocean modelling expertise and community representation drawn from Regional and US Federal partners in IOOS. Priorities for research and development are suggested that would enhance the value of IOOS observations through model-based synthesis, deliver better model-based information products, and assist the design, evaluation, and operation of the observing system itself. The proposed priorities are: model coupling, data assimilation, nearshore processes, cyberinfrastructure and model skill assessment, modelling for observing system design, evaluation and operation, ensemble prediction, and fast predictors. Approaches are suggested to accomplish substantial progress in a 3–8-year timeframe. In addition, the group proposes steps to promote collaboration between research and operations groups in Regional Associations, US Federal Agencies, and the international ocean research community in general that would foster coordination on scientific and technical issues, and strengthen federal–academic partnerships benefiting IOOS stakeholders and end users.

  9. Developing a global ocean observing system that prioritises ecosystem variables from a political and societal point of view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miloslavich, P.; Bax, N. J.; Simmons, S. E.; Appeltans, W.; Garcia, M.

    2016-02-01

    The Biology and Ecosystems Panel of GOOS aims to develop and coordinate efforts to implement a sustained and targeted global ocean observation system. This system will be driven by societal needs (including the Sustainable Development Goals), and identify Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs) to inform priority scientific and societal questions that will facilitate critical policy development and management decision-making on ocean and coastal resource sustainability and health. Mature EOVs need to have global relevance and the capacity for global measurement. Our goal is to implement at least one (set of) mature EOVs by 2019, and identify a further three (sets of) pilot EOVs with a clear pathway to maturity. Our initial work includes (1) identifying drivers and pressures of societal and scientific needs, and (2) identifying internationally agreed goals that need sustained global observations of ocean biological & ecosystem variables for a healthy ocean. We reviewed 24 major conventions/international organizations (including the CBD and 16 UN related) to identify the societal needs these organizations address through their goals, and to produce a set of overlapping objectives. Main drivers identified in these conventions were: knowledge (science/data access), development (sustainable economic growth), conservation (biodiversity & ecosystems), sustainable use (biodiversity & resources), environmental quality (health), capacity building (technology transfer), food security, threat prevention and impact mitigation (to different pressures) and improved management (integrated ecosystem approach). The main pressures identified were climate change, ocean acidification, extreme weather events, overfishing/ overexploitation, pollution/ eutrophication, mining, solid wastes. Our next step will be to develop consensus with the observing community about the EOVs that will meet these needs and support the expansion of these identified EOVs into successful global observing systems.

  10. A perspective on sustained marine observations for climate modelling and prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunstone, Nick J

    2014-09-28

    Here, I examine some of the many varied ways in which sustained global ocean observations are used in numerical modelling activities. In particular, I focus on the use of ocean observations to initialize predictions in ocean and climate models. Examples are also shown of how models can be used to assess the impact of both current ocean observations and to simulate that of potential new ocean observing platforms. The ocean has never been better observed than it is today and similarly ocean models have never been as capable at representing the real ocean as they are now. However, there remain important unanswered questions that can likely only be addressed via future improvements in ocean observations. In particular, ocean observing systems need to respond to the needs of the burgeoning field of near-term climate predictions. Although new ocean observing platforms promise exciting new discoveries, there is a delicate balance to be made between their funding and that of the current ocean observing system. Here, I identify the need to secure long-term funding for ocean observing platforms as they mature, from a mainly research exercise to an operational system for sustained observation over climate change time scales. At the same time, considerable progress continues to be made via ship-based observing campaigns and I highlight some that are dedicated to addressing uncertainties in key ocean model parametrizations. The use of ocean observations to understand the prominent long time scale changes observed in the North Atlantic is another focus of this paper. The exciting first decade of monitoring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation by the RAPID-MOCHA array is highlighted. The use of ocean and climate models as tools to further probe the drivers of variability seen in such time series is another exciting development. I also discuss the need for a concerted combined effort from climate models and ocean observations in order to understand the current slow

  11. Ocean circulation model predicts high genetic structure observed in a long-lived pelagic developer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunday, J M; Popovic, I; Palen, W J; Foreman, M G G; Hart, M W

    2014-10-01

    Understanding the movement of genes and individuals across marine seascapes is a long-standing challenge in marine ecology and can inform our understanding of local adaptation, the persistence and movement of populations, and the spatial scale of effective management. Patterns of gene flow in the ocean are often inferred based on population genetic analyses coupled with knowledge of species' dispersive life histories. However, genetic structure is the result of time-integrated processes and may not capture present-day connectivity between populations. Here, we use a high-resolution oceanographic circulation model to predict larval dispersal along the complex coastline of western Canada that includes the transition between two well-studied zoogeographic provinces. We simulate dispersal in a benthic sea star with a 6-10 week pelagic larval phase and test predictions of this model against previously observed genetic structure including a strong phylogeographic break within the zoogeographical transition zone. We also test predictions with new genetic sampling in a site within the phylogeographic break. We find that the coupled genetic and circulation model predicts the high degree of genetic structure observed in this species, despite its long pelagic duration. High genetic structure on this complex coastline can thus be explained through ocean circulation patterns, which tend to retain passive larvae within 20-50 km of their parents, suggesting a necessity for close-knit design of Marine Protected Area networks. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Comparison of Model Predictions and Laboratory Observations of Transgene Frequencies in Continuously-Breeding Mosquito Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Valerio

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The persistence of transgenes in the environment is a consideration in risk assessments of transgenic organisms. Combining mathematical models that predict the frequency of transgenes and experimental demonstrations can validate the model predictions, or can detect significant biological deviations that were neither apparent nor included as model parameters. In order to assess the correlation between predictions and observations, models were constructed to estimate the frequency of a transgene causing male sexual sterility in simulated populations of a malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae that were seeded with transgenic females at various proportions. Concurrently, overlapping-generation laboratory populations similar to those being modeled were initialized with various starting transgene proportions, and the subsequent proportions of transgenic individuals in populations were determined weekly until the transgene disappeared. The specific transgene being tested contained a homing endonuclease gene expressed in testes, I-PpoI, that cleaves the ribosomal DNA and results in complete male sexual sterility with no effect on female fertility. The transgene was observed to disappear more rapidly than the model predicted in all cases. The period before ovipositions that contained no transgenic progeny ranged from as little as three weeks after cage initiation to as long as 11 weeks.

  13. Prediction of immediate postoperative pain using the analgesia/nociception index: a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boselli, E; Bouvet, L; Bégou, G; Dabouz, R; Davidson, J; Deloste, J-Y; Rahali, N; Zadam, A; Allaouchiche, B

    2014-04-01

    The analgesia/nociception index (ANI) is derived from heart rate variability, ranging from 0 (maximal nociception) to 100 (maximal analgesia), to reflect the analgesia/nociception balance during general anaesthesia. This should be correlated with immediate postoperative pain in the post-anaesthesia care unit (PACU). The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of ANI measured at arousal from general anaesthesia to predict immediate postoperative pain on arrival in PACU. Two hundred patients undergoing ear, nose, and throat or lower limb orthopaedic surgery with general anaesthesia using an inhalational agent and remifentanil were included in this prospective observational study. The ANI was measured immediately before tracheal extubation and pain intensity was assessed within 10 min of arrival in PACU using a 0-10 numerical rating scale (NRS). The relationship between ANI and NRS was assessed using linear regression. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the performance of ANI to predict NRS>3. A negative linear relationship was observed between ANI immediately before extubation and NRS on arrival in PACU. Using a threshold of 3 were both 86% with 92% negative predictive value, corresponding to an area under the ROC curve of 0.89. The measurement of ANI immediately before extubation after inhalation-remifentanil anaesthesia was significantly associated with pain intensity on arrival in PACU. The performance of ANI for the prediction of immediate postoperative pain is good and may assist physicians in optimizing acute pain management. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01796249.

  14. Predictive Sliding Mode Control for Attitude Tracking of Hypersonic Vehicles Using Fuzzy Disturbance Observer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianlei Cheng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a predictive sliding mode control (PSMC scheme for attitude control of hypersonic vehicle (HV with system uncertainties and external disturbances based on an improved fuzzy disturbance observer (IFDO. First, for a class of uncertain affine nonlinear systems with system uncertainties and external disturbances, we propose a predictive sliding mode control based on fuzzy disturbance observer (FDO-PSMC, which is used to estimate the composite disturbances containing system uncertainties and external disturbances. Afterward, to enhance the composite disturbances rejection performance, an improved FDO-PSMC (IFDO-PSMC is proposed by incorporating a hyperbolic tangent function with FDO to compensate for the approximate error of FDO. Finally, considering the actuator dynamics, the proposed IFDO-PSMC is applied to attitude control system design for HV to track the guidance commands with high precision and strong robustness. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed attitude control scheme.

  15. A Predictive Velocity Observer in Wire Bonder’s Control System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Zhou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Wire bonder is a typical high speed machine. The motion speed of XY-stage is the key factor of bonding efficiency. However, phase lag elements in the servo system limit the bandwidth and slow down the system’s response. A predictive velocity observer is proposed to compensate for those phase lags. Then, the velocity loop controller can be designed as for a servo system which does not have those phase lags. Loop gains are enlarged and bandwidth is enlarged correspondingly. Then, the motion speed is improved and settling time is decreased. Experiment results verify that the predictive velocity observer provided a significant phase lead and the performance of wire bonder is improved.

  16. Can the cerebroplacental ratio (CPR) predict intrapartum fetal compromise? : a prospective observational study

    OpenAIRE

    Page, Ann-Sophie; Page, Geert; Dehaene, Isabelle; Roets, Ellen; Roelens, Kristien

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the potential clinical use of serial fetal CPR measurements during the last month of pregnancy for the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome in unselected low-risk pregnancies. Methods: A multicenter prospective observational cohort study in 315 consecutively recruited low-risk pregnancies. All eligible pregnancies underwent serial sonographic evaluation of fetal weight and Doppler indices at two week intervals, from 36 weeks gestation until delivery. Data were ...

  17. Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability in Cycle 24: Model Predictions and OMI Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchenko, S.; DeLand, M.; Lean, J.

    2016-01-01

    Utilizing the excellent stability of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), we characterize both short-term (solar rotation) and long-term (solar cycle) changes of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) between 265-500 nanometers during the ongoing Cycle 24. We supplement the OMI data with concurrent observations from the GOME-2 (Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment - 2) and SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) instruments and find fair-to-excellent agreement between the observations and predictions of the NRLSSI2 (Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance - post SORCE) and SATIRE-S (the Naval Research Laboratory's Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era) models.

  18. Space, politics, and the political

    OpenAIRE

    dikec, mustafa

    1987-01-01

    International audience; Introduction Geography and politics'', Gottmann wrote in 1980, ``have long been in search of each other'' (page 11). Debates in the literature suggest not only that they have found each other, but also that the encounter has instigated, notably in the last decade or so, a body of literature seeking to think space politically, and to think politics spatially. This is not to suggest that previous work on space was apolitical, nor to suggest that previous work on politics...

  19. The Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task (SPORT): an International Science Mission Using a Cubesat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spann, James; Swenson, Charles; Durao, Otavio; Loures, Luis; Heelis, Rod; Bishop, Rebecca; Le, Guan; Abdu, Mangalathayil; Krause, Linda; Fry, Craig; hide

    2017-01-01

    The Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task (SPORT) is a 6U CubeSat mission to address the compelling but difficult problem of understanding the preconditions leading to equatorial plasma bubbles. The scientific literature describes the preconditions in both the plasma drifts and the density profiles related to bubble formations that occur several hours later in the evening. Most of the scientific discovery has resulted from observations at a single site, within a single longitude sector, from Jicamarca, Peru. SPORT will provide a systematic study of the state of the pre-bubble conditions at all longitudes sectors to enhance understanding between geography and magnetic geometry. SPORT is an international partnership between National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE), and the Technical Aeronautics Institute under the Brazilian Air Force Command Department (DCTA/ITA), and encouraged by U.S. Southern Command. This talk will present an overview of the SPORT mission, observation strategy, and science objectives to improve predictions of ionospheric disturbances that affect radio propagation of telecommunication signals. The science goals will be accomplished by a unique combination of satellite observations from a nearly circular middle inclination orbit and the extensive operation of ground based observations from South America near the magnetic equator.

  20. A new theory of plant-microbe nutrient competition resolves inconsistencies between observations and model predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Qing; Riley, William J; Tang, Jinyun

    2017-04-01

    Terrestrial plants assimilate anthropogenic CO 2 through photosynthesis and synthesizing new tissues. However, sustaining these processes requires plants to compete with microbes for soil nutrients, which therefore calls for an appropriate understanding and modeling of nutrient competition mechanisms in Earth System Models (ESMs). Here, we survey existing plant-microbe competition theories and their implementations in ESMs. We found no consensus regarding the representation of nutrient competition and that observational and theoretical support for current implementations are weak. To reconcile this situation, we applied the Equilibrium Chemistry Approximation (ECA) theory to plant-microbe nitrogen competition in a detailed grassland 15 N tracer study and found that competition theories in current ESMs fail to capture observed patterns and the ECA prediction simplifies the complex nature of nutrient competition and quantitatively matches the 15 N observations. Since plant carbon dynamics are strongly modulated by soil nutrient acquisition, we conclude that (1) predicted nutrient limitation effects on terrestrial carbon accumulation by existing ESMs may be biased and (2) our ECA-based approach may improve predictions by mechanistically representing plant-microbe nutrient competition. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  1. Teaching Politically without Political Correctness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graff, Gerald

    2000-01-01

    Discusses how to bring political issues into the classroom, highlighting the influence of local context and noting conservative and liberal criticisms of political correctness. Suggests the need for a different idea of how to teach politically from the advocacy pedagogy advanced by recent critical educators, explaining that bringing students into…

  2. Dissociating dynamic probability and predictability in observed actions – an fMRI study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christiane eAhlheim

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The present fMRI study investigated whether human observers spontaneously exploit the statistical structure underlying continuous action sequences. In particular, we tested whether two different statistical properties can be distinguished with regard to their neural correlates: an action step’s predictability and its probability. To assess these properties we used measures from information theory. Predictability of action steps was operationalized by its inverse, conditional entropy, which combines the number of possible action steps with their respective probabilities. Probability of action steps was assessed using conditional surprisal, which increases with decreasing probability.Participants were trained in an action observation paradigm with video clips showing sequences of 9 to 33 seconds length with varying numbers of action steps that were statistically structured according to a Markov chain. Behavioral tests revealed that participants implicitly learned this statistical structure, showing that humans are sensitive towards these probabilistic regularities. Surprisal (lower probability enhanced the BOLD signal in the anterior intraparietal sulcus. In contrast, high conditional entropy, i.e. low predictability, was correlated with higher activity in dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, orbitofrontal gyrus, and posterior intraparietal sulcus. Furthermore, we found a correlation between the anterior hippocampus’ response to conditional entropy with the extent of learning, such that the more participants had learnt the structure, the greater the magnitude of hippocampus activation in response to conditional entropy.Findings show that two aspects of predictions can be dissociated: an action’s predictability is reflected in a top-down modulation of attentional focus, evident in increased fronto-parietal activation. In contrast, an action’s probability depends on the identity of the stimulus itself, resulting in bottom-up driven processing

  3. Cultural Politics in the Classroom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackwood, Gae

    1992-01-01

    Discusses political correctness and cultural politics in the schools. Questions whether concern over education's traditionally Eurocentric view justifies rejecting the curriculum. Observes that the issue of how teachers teach also has cultural implications. Suggests that the political correctness debate shows how long the road to cross-cultural…

  4. Authoritarian parenting predicts reduced electrocortical response to observed adolescent offspring rewards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speed, Brittany C.; Nelson, Brady; Bress, Jennifer N.; Hajcak, Greg

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Parenting styles are robust predictors of offspring outcomes, yet little is known about their neural underpinnings. In this study, 44 parent-adolescent dyads (Mage of adolescent = 12.9) completed a laboratory guessing task while EEG was continuously recorded. In the task, each pair member received feedback about their own monetary wins and losses and also observed the monetary wins and losses of the other member of the pair. We examined the association between self-reported parenting style and parents’ electrophysiological responses to watching their adolescent winning and losing money, dubbed the observational Reward Positivity (RewP) and observational feedback negativity (FN), respectively. Self-reported authoritarian parenting predicted reductions in parents’ observational RewP but not FN. This predictive relationship remained after adjusting for sex of both participants, parents’ responsiveness to their own wins, and parental psychopathology. ‘Exploratory analyses found that permissive parenting was associated with a blunting of the adolescents’ response to their parents’ losses’. These findings suggest that parents’ rapid neural responses to their child’s successes may relate to the harsh parenting behaviors associated with authoritarian parenting. PMID:27613780

  5. Authoritarian parenting predicts reduced electrocortical response to observed adolescent offspring rewards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levinson, Amanda R; Speed, Brittany C; Nelson, Brady; Bress, Jennifer N; Hajcak, Greg

    2017-03-01

    Parenting styles are robust predictors of offspring outcomes, yet little is known about their neural underpinnings. In this study, 44 parent-adolescent dyads (Mage of adolescent = 12.9) completed a laboratory guessing task while EEG was continuously recorded. In the task, each pair member received feedback about their own monetary wins and losses and also observed the monetary wins and losses of the other member of the pair. We examined the association between self-reported parenting style and parents' electrophysiological responses to watching their adolescent winning and losing money, dubbed the observational Reward Positivity (RewP) and observational feedback negativity (FN), respectively. Self-reported authoritarian parenting predicted reductions in parents' observational RewP but not FN. This predictive relationship remained after adjusting for sex of both participants, parents' responsiveness to their own wins, and parental psychopathology. 'Exploratory analyses found that permissive parenting was associated with a blunting of the adolescents' response to their parents' losses'. These findings suggest that parents' rapid neural responses to their child's successes may relate to the harsh parenting behaviors associated with authoritarian parenting. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. [Political psychology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resch, Mária; Bella, Tamás

    2013-04-21

    In Hungary one can mostly find references to the psychological processes of politics in the writings of publicists, public opinion pollsters, philosophers, social psychologists, and political analysts. It would be still important if not only legal scientists focusing on political institutions or sociologist-politologists concentrating on social structures could analyse the psychological aspects of political processes; but one could also do so through the application of the methods of political psychology. The authors review the history of political psychology, its position vis-à-vis other fields of science and the essential interfaces through which this field of science, which is still to be discovered in Hungary, connects to other social sciences. As far as its methodology comprising psycho-biographical analyses, questionnaire-based queries, cognitive mapping of interviews and statements are concerned, it is identical with the psychiatric tools of medical sciences. In the next part of this paper, the focus is shifted to the essence and contents of political psychology. Group dynamics properties, voters' attitudes, leaders' personalities and the behavioural patterns demonstrated by them in different political situations, authoritativeness, games, and charisma are all essential components of political psychology, which mostly analyses psychological-psychiatric processes and also involves medical sciences by relying on cognitive and behavioural sciences. This paper describes political psychology, which is basically part of social sciences, still, being an interdisciplinary science, has several ties to medical sciences through psychological and psychiatric aspects.

  7. Amniotic fluid index and estimated fetal weight for prediction of fetal macrosomia: a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Khouly, Nabih I; Elkelani, Osama A; Saleh, Said A

    2017-08-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the value of combining the estimated fetal weight (EFW) and amniotic fluid index (AFI) measured in term patients early in labor with intact membranes for prediction of macrosomia. In a single center, prospective observational study, 600 patients in the first stage of labor before rupture of membranes in whom ultrasonography was performed to measure AFI and EFW, and these data were analyzed statistically to evaluate prediction of fetal macrosomia. Macrosomia occurred in 64 cases (10.6%). The AFI was significantly higher in the macrosomic group (p = 0.001). It was noted that the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for EFW was 0.93 and that of AFI was 0.67. Based on suggested combined EFW and AFI cutoffs of 4000 g and 164 mm, respectively, the positive predictive value (PPV) for combined parameters (92.3%) was higher than that of EFW (75%) and that of AFI (27%) and the likelihood ratio for combination (93.7%) was higher than that of EFW (24.7%) and that of AFI (21%). Combined use of EFW and AFI improves prediction of macrosomia at birth rather than the EFW alone.

  8. Predictive Factors of Superior Mediastinal Nodal Metastasis from Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma--A Prospective Observational Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joo Hyun Woo

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the incidence rates and predictive factors of superior mediastinal lymph node (SMLN metastasis in PTC (papillary thyroid carcinoma patients.A prospective observational study was performed between January 2009 and January 2011. PTC patients who had tumors with a maximal diameter greater than 1 cm and clinically negative SMLNs were included in this study. Finally, a total of 217 patients who underwent total thyroidectomy with central compartment neck dissection (CND and elective superior mediastinal lymph node dissection (SMLND, with or without modified radical neck dissection (MRND and revisional CND, were included.Occult SMLN metastasis was present in 15.7% (34/217. Cytological classifications of tumor, BRAFV600E mutation, Tumor size, T-stage, perithyroidal extension, lymphovascular invasion, multifocality, and paratracheal pN(+ were not predictive of SMLN metastasis (P > .05, while revision surgery, pretracheal pN(+, and multiple lateral pN(+ were associated with SMLN metastasis. There were no major complications related to SMLND. Transient and permanent hypoparathyroidism was observed in 69 cases (31.8% and 8 cases (3.6%, respectively.Despite clinically negative SMLN in preoperative evaluation, SMLN metastasis can be predicted for patients with a PTC tumor size larger than 1 cm, pretracheal LN metastasis, multiple lateral metastasis, and revisional surgery.

  9. Social Observation Increases Functional Segregation between MPFC Subregions Predicting Prosocial Consumer Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Daehyun; Sul, Sunhae; Lee, Minwoo; Kim, Hackjin

    2018-02-20

    Although it is now well documented that observation by others can be a powerful elicitor of prosocial behaviour, the underlying neural mechanism is yet to be explored. In the present fMRI study, we replicated the previously reported observer effect in ethical consumption, in that participants were more likely to purchase social products that are sold to support people in need than non-social products when being observed by others. fMRI data revealed that the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) encoded subject-specific value parameters of purchase decisions for social and non-social products, respectively, under social observation. The ACC showed strong functional coupling with the amygdala and the anterior insula when participants in the observation condition were making purchases of social versus non-social products. Finally, ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) activity predicted faster reaction time and increased prosocial behavior during decisions to purchase social versus non-social products, regardless of social observation. The present findings suggest that subregions of the mPFC, namely the dmPFC, ACC, and vmPFC, are hierarchically organized to encode different levels of decision values from the value of context-sensitive reputation to that of internalized prosociality.

  10. Nonlinear Predictive Control of Wind Energy Conversion System Using Dfig with Aerodynamic Torque Observer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamel, Ouari; Mohand, Ouhrouche; Toufik, Rekioua; Taib, Nabil

    2015-01-01

    In order to improvement of the performances for wind energy conversions systems (WECS), an advanced control techniques must be used. In this paper, as an alternative to conventional PI-type control methods, a nonlinear predictive control (NPC) approach is developed for DFIG-based wind turbine. To enhance the robustness of the controller, a disturbance observer is designed to estimate the aerodynamic torque which is considered as an unknown perturbation. An explicitly analytical form of the optimal predictive controller is given consequently on-line optimization is not necessary The DFIG is fed through the rotor windings by a back-to-back converter controlled by Pulse Width Modulation (PWM), where the stator winding is directly connected to the grid. The presented simulation results show a good performance in trajectory tracking of the proposed strategy and rejection of disturbances is successfully achieved.

  11. Political Ecology

    OpenAIRE

    DeFriez, Joshua; Larsen, Justine; Hilton, Nicholas

    2014-01-01

    Environmental legislation is commonly accepted as an altruistic approach to land management. A closer examination however, reveals that political incentives and flawed arguments consistently shape U.S. environmental policy at high public costs. As student fellows at the Institute of Political Economy at Utah State University, we have had the opportunity to research this subject under the direction of Professor Randy Simmons. Political Ecology is his upcoming book that explores a variety of en...

  12. Political Campaigns

    OpenAIRE

    Lilleker, Darren

    2017-01-01

    Political campaigns are orchestrated attempts by political organizations to garner public support through persuasive communication in order to influence public policy in their favor. This broad definition encapsulates all forms of campaigns from those of neighborhood organizations seeking to influence local politicians to the campaigns of political parties and candidates who seek election to office in order to shape policy themselves. In pluralist democracies, campaigns are crucial for repres...

  13. Political administration

    OpenAIRE

    Åkerstrøm Andersen, Niels

    2000-01-01

    One of the major discussions of the 1990s has been about the relation between politics and administration. The themes of the discussions have been many and varied. It has been suggested that the level of politics should concentrate on the general political outlining and entrust the remaining to the administration. It has been criticised that politicians make their decisions on the basis of single cases, which ought to be an administrative matter entirely. It has been a theme that efficient op...

  14. Optimization of Observation Strategy to Improve Re-entry Prediction of Objects in HEO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasotto, M.; Di Mauro, G.; Massari, M.; Di Lizia, P.; Armellin, R.; Funke, Q.; Flohrer, T.

    2016-09-01

    During the last decade the number of space debris moving on high elliptical orbit (HEO) has grown fast. Many of these resident space objects (RSO) consist of medium and large spent upper stages of launch vehicles, whose atmosphere re-entry might violate on-ground casualty risk constraints. Increasing the accuracy of re-entry predictions for this class of RSO is therefore a key issue to limit the hazards on the Earth assets. Traditional computational methods are mainly based on the exploitation of Two Line Elements (TLEs), provided by the United States Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) and currently the only public data source available for these kind of analyses. TLE data however, are characterized by low accuracies, and in general come without any uncertainty information, thus limiting the achievable precision of the re-entry estimates. Better results on the other hand, can be obtained through the exploitation of observational data provided by one or more Earth sensors. Despite the benefits, this approach introduces a whole new set of complexities, mainly related with the design of proper observation campaigns. This paper presents a method based on evolutionary algorithms, for the optimization of observation strategies. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated through dedicated examples, in which re-entry predictions, attainable with existing and ideal sensor architectures, are compared with corresponding results derived from TLE data.

  15. Observed parent-child relationship quality predicts antibody response to vaccination in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Thomas G; Wang, Hongyue; Moynihan, Jan A; Wyman, Peter A; Carnahan, Jennifer; Lofthus, Gerry; Quataert, Sally A; Bowman, Melissa; Burke, Anne S; Caserta, Mary T

    2015-08-01

    Quality of the parent-child relationship is a robust predictor of behavioral and emotional health for children and adolescents; the application to physical health is less clear. We investigated the links between observed parent-child relationship quality in an interaction task and antibody response to meningococcal conjugate vaccine in a longitudinal study of 164 ambulatory 10-11 year-old children; additional analyses examine associations with cortisol reactivity, BMI, and somatic illness. Observed Negative/Conflict behavior in the interaction task predicted a less robust antibody response to meningococcal serotype C vaccine in the child over a 6 month-period, after controlling for socio-economic and other covariates. Observer rated interaction conflict also predicted increased cortisol reactivity following the interaction task and higher BMI, but these factors did not account for the link between relationship quality and antibody response. The results begin to document the degree to which a major source of child stress exposure, parent-child relationship conflict, is associated with altered immune system development in children, and may constitute an important public health consideration. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Predicted Attenuation Relation and Observed Ground Motion of Gorkha Nepal Earthquake of 25 April 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, R. P.; Ahmad, R.

    2015-12-01

    A comparison of recent observed ground motion parameters of recent Gorkha Nepal earthquake of 25 April 2015 (Mw 7.8) with the predicted ground motion parameters using exitsing attenuation relation of the Himalayan region will be presented. The recent earthquake took about 8000 lives and destroyed thousands of poor quality of buildings and the earthquake was felt by millions of people living in Nepal, China, India, Bangladesh, and Bhutan. The knowledge of ground parameters are very important in developing seismic code of seismic prone regions like Himalaya for better design of buildings. The ground parameters recorded in recent earthquake event and aftershocks are compared with attenuation relations for the Himalayan region, the predicted ground motion parameters show good correlation with the observed ground parameters. The results will be of great use to Civil engineers in updating existing building codes in the Himlayan and surrounding regions and also for the evaluation of seismic hazards. The results clearly show that the attenuation relation developed for the Himalayan region should be only used, other attenuation relations based on other regions fail to provide good estimate of observed ground motion parameters.

  17. End expiratory oxygen concentrations to predict central venous oxygen saturation: an observational pilot study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steuerwald Michael

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A non-invasive surrogate measurement for central venous oxygen saturation (ScVO2 would be useful in the ED for assessing therapeutic interventions in critically ill patients. We hypothesized that either linear or nonlinear mathematical manipulation of the partial pressure of oxygen in breath at end expiration (EtO2 would accurately predict ScVO2. Methods Prospective observational study of a convenience sample of hemodialysis patients age > 17 years with existing upper extremity central venous catheters were enrolled. Using a portable respiratory device, we collected both tidal breathing and end expiratory oxygen and carbon dioxide concentrations, volume and flow on each patient. Simultaneous ScVO2 measurements were obtained via blood samples collected from the hemodialysis catheter. Two models were used to predict ScVO2: 1 Best-fit multivariate linear regression equation incorporating all respiratory variables; 2 MathCAD to model the decay curve of EtO2 versus expiratory volume using the least squares method to estimate the pO2 that would occur at Results From 21 patients, the correlation between EtO2 and measured ScVO2 yielded R2 = 0.11. The best fit multivariate equation included EtCO2 and EtO2 and when solved for ScVO2, the equation yielded a mean absolute difference from the measured ScVO2 of 8 ± 6% (range -18 to +17%. The predicted ScVO2 value was within 10% of the actual value for 57% of the patients. Modeling of the EtO2 curve did not accurately predict ScVO2 at any lung volume. Conclusion We found no significant correlation between EtO2 and ScVO2. A linear equation incorporating EtCO2 and EtO2 had at best modest predictive accuracy for ScVO2.

  18. Observing others stay or switch - How social prediction errors are integrated into reward reversal learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ihssen, Niklas; Mussweiler, Thomas; Linden, David E J

    2016-08-01

    Reward properties of stimuli can undergo sudden changes, and the detection of these 'reversals' is often made difficult by the probabilistic nature of rewards/punishments. Here we tested whether and how humans use social information (someone else's choices) to overcome uncertainty during reversal learning. We show a substantial social influence during reversal learning, which was modulated by the type of observed behavior. Participants frequently followed observed conservative choices (no switches after punishment) made by the (fictitious) other player but ignored impulsive choices (switches), even though the experiment was set up so that both types of response behavior would be similarly beneficial/detrimental (Study 1). Computational modeling showed that participants integrated the observed choices as a 'social prediction error' instead of ignoring or blindly following the other player. Modeling also confirmed higher learning rates for 'conservative' versus 'impulsive' social prediction errors. Importantly, this 'conservative bias' was boosted by interpersonal similarity, which in conjunction with the lack of effects observed in a non-social control experiment (Study 2) confirmed its social nature. A third study suggested that relative weighting of observed impulsive responses increased with increased volatility (frequency of reversals). Finally, simulations showed that in the present paradigm integrating social and reward information was not necessarily more adaptive to maximize earnings than learning from reward alone. Moreover, integrating social information increased accuracy only when conservative and impulsive choices were weighted similarly during learning. These findings suggest that to guide decisions in choice contexts that involve reward reversals humans utilize social cues conforming with their preconceptions more strongly than cues conflicting with them, especially when the other is similar. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B

  19. Neurocognitive and observational markers: prediction of autism spectrum disorder from infancy to mid-childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedford, Rachael; Gliga, Teodora; Shephard, Elizabeth; Elsabbagh, Mayada; Pickles, Andrew; Charman, Tony; Johnson, Mark H

    2017-01-01

    Prospective studies of infants at high familial risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have identified a number of putative early markers that are associated with ASD outcome at 3 years of age. However, some diagnostic changes occur between toddlerhood and mid-childhood, which raises the question of whether infant markers remain associated with diagnosis into mid-childhood. First, we tested whether infant neurocognitive markers (7-month neural response to eye gaze shifts and 14-month visual disengagement latencies) as well as an observational marker of emerging ASD behaviours (the Autism Observation Scale for Infants; AOSI) predicted ASD outcome in high-risk (HR) 7-year-olds with and without an ASD diagnosis (HR-ASD and HR-No ASD) and low risk (LR) controls. Second, we tested whether the neurocognitive markers offer predictive power over and above the AOSI. Both neurocognitive markers distinguished children with an ASD diagnosis at 7 years of age from those in the HR-No ASD and LR groups. Exploratory analysis suggested that neurocognitive markers may further differentiate stable versus lost/late diagnosis across the 3 to 7 year period, which will need to be tested in larger samples. At both 7 and 14 months, combining the neurocognitive marker with the AOSI offered a significantly improved model fit over the AOSI alone. Infant neurocognitive markers relate to ASD in mid-childhood, improving predictive power over and above an early observational marker. The findings have implications for understanding the neurodevelopmental mechanisms that lead from risk to disorder and for identification of potential targets of pre-emptive intervention.

  20. Scaling Process Studies and Observations in the Arctic for Improved Climate Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, C. J.; Graham, D. E.; Hinzman, L. D.; Hubbard, S. S.; Liang, L.; Norby, R. J.; Riley, W. J.; Rogers, A.; Rowland, J. C.; Thornton, P. E.; Torn, M. S.; Wullschleger, S. D.

    2012-12-01

    A fundamental goal of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE-Arctic) project is to improve climate prediction through process understanding and representation of that knowledge in Earth System models. Geomorphological units, including thaw lakes, drained thaw lake basins, and ice-rich polygonal ground provide the organizing framework for our model scaling approach for the coastal plains of the North Slope of Alaska. A comprehensive suite of process studies and observations of hydrology, geomorphology, biogeochemistry, vegetation patterns, and energy exchange and their couplings will be undertaken across nested scales to populate the NGEE hierarchical modeling framework and to achieve a broader goal of optimally informing process representations in a global-scale model. A central focus of this challenge is to advance process understanding and prediction of the evolution of permafrost degradation and its impact on topography and thermal conditions and how these changes control the spatial and temporal availability of water for biogeochemical, ecological, and physical feedbacks to the climate system. Field activities to inform model development is being carried out across a gradient of polygonal ground nested within a drained thaw lake basin age gradient near Barrow, Alaska. Co-analysis of in-situ observations with ground based geophysical and airborne and satellite based remote sensing products from the single polygon to multiple drained lake basin scale is revealing surface-subsurface variability and interactions that influence or control local hydrology, greenhouse gas production, vegetation and the energy balance. We are using a range of data assimilation and fusion techniques to combine spatially extensive data sets developed from multi-scale field data with intensive data being collected from both controlled laboratory experiments using field cores and in-situ thermal, hydrologic, biogeochemical and ecologic observations to improve process understanding

  1. Comparison of predicted with observed biokinetics of inhaled plutonium nitrate and gadolinium oxide in humans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hodgson, A.; Shutt, A.L.; Etherington, G.; Hodgson, S.A.; Rance, E.; Stradling, G.N.; Youngman, M.J.; Ziesenis, A.; Kreyling, W.G.

    2003-01-01

    The absorption kinetics to blood of plutonium and gadolinium after inhalation as nitrate and oxide in humans and animals has been studied. For each material, values describing the time dependence of absorption were derived from the studies in animals and used with the ICRP human respiratory tract model to predict lung retention and cumulative amounts to blood for the volunteers inhaling the same materials. Comparison with the observed behaviour in the volunteers suggests that absorption of plutonium and gadolinium is reasonably species independent, and that data obtained from animal studies can be used to assess their biokinetic behaviour in humans. (author)

  2. On the dynamic estimation of relative weights for observation and forecast in numerical weather prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahba, Grace; Deepak, A. (Editor)

    1988-01-01

    The problem of merging direct and remotely sensed (indirect) data with forecast data to get an estimate of the present state of the atmosphere for the purpose of numerical weather prediction is examined. To carry out this merging optimally, it is necessary to provide an estimate of the relative weights to be given to the observations and forecast. It is possible to do this dynamically from the information to be merged, if the correlation structure of the errors from the various sources is sufficiently different. Some new statistical approaches to doing this are described, and conditions quantified in which such estimates are likely to be good.

  3. Can citizen-based observations be assimilated in hydrological models to improve flood prediction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Solomatine, Dimitri P.

    2015-04-01

    In the recent years, the continued technological improvement has stimulated the spread of low-cost sensors that can be used to measure hydrological variables by citizens in a more spatially distributed way than classic static physical sensors. However, such measurements have the main characteristics to have irregular arrival time and variable uncertainty. This study presents a Kalman filter based method to integrate citizen-based observations into hydrological models in order to improve flood prediction. The methodology is applied in the Brue catchment, South West of England. In order to estimate the response of the catchment to a given flood event, a lumped conceptual hydrological model is implemented. The measured precipitation values are used as perfect forecast input in the hydrological model. Synthetic streamflow values are used in this study due to the fact that citizen-based observations coming at irregular time steps are not available. The results of this study pointed out how increasing the number of uncertain citizen-based observations within two model time steps can improve the model accuracy leading to a better flood forecast. Therefore, observations uncertainty influences the model accuracy more than the irregular moments in which the streamflow observations are assimilated into the hydrological model. This study is part of the FP7 European Project WeSenseIt Citizen Water Observatory (http://wesenseit.eu/).

  4. Predicting Near-Term Water Quality from Satellite Observations of Watershed Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, W. J.; Wang, L.; Hoffman, K.; West, D.; Mehta, A. V.; Lee, C.

    2017-12-01

    Despite the strong influence of watershed conditions on source water quality, most water utilities and water resource agencies do not currently have the capability to monitor watershed sources of contamination with great temporal or spatial detail. Typically, knowledge of source water quality is limited to periodic grab sampling; automated monitoring of a limited number of parameters at a few select locations; and/or monitoring relevant constituents at a treatment plant intake. While important, such observations are not sufficient to inform proactive watershed or source water management at a monthly or seasonal scale. Satellite remote sensing data on the other hand can provide a snapshot of an entire watershed at regular, sub-monthly intervals, helping analysts characterize watershed conditions and identify trends that could signal changes in source water quality. Accordingly, the authors are investigating correlations between satellite remote sensing observations of watersheds and source water quality, at a variety of spatial and temporal scales and lags. While correlations between remote sensing observations and direct in situ measurements of water quality have been well described in the literature, there are few studies that link remote sensing observations across a watershed with near-term predictions of water quality. In this presentation, the authors will describe results of statistical analyses and discuss how these results are being used to inform development of a desktop decision support tool to support predictive application of remote sensing data. Predictor variables under evaluation include parameters that describe vegetative conditions; parameters that describe climate/weather conditions; and non-remote sensing, in situ measurements. Water quality parameters under investigation include nitrogen, phosphorus, organic carbon, chlorophyll-a, and turbidity.

  5. Satellite Observations and Chemistry Climate Models - A Meandering Path Towards Better Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglass, Anne R.

    2011-01-01

    Knowledge of the chemical and dynamical processes that control the stratospheric ozone layer has grown rapidly since the 1970s, when ideas that depletion of the ozone layer due to human activity were put forth. The concept of ozone depletion due to anthropogenic chlorine increase is simple; quantification of the effect is much more difficult. The future of stratospheric ozone is complicated because ozone is expected to increase for two reasons: the slow decrease in anthropogenic chlorine due to the Montreal Protocol and its amendments and stratospheric cooling caused by increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Prediction of future ozone levels requires three-dimensional models that represent physical, photochemical and radiative processes, i.e., chemistry climate models (CCMs). While laboratory kinetic and photochemical data are necessary inputs for a CCM, atmospheric measurements are needed both to reveal physical and chemical processes and for comparison with simulations to test the conceptual model that CCMs represent. Global measurements are available from various satellites including but not limited to the LIMS and TOMS instruments on Nimbus 7 (1979 - 1993), and various instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (1991 - 2005), Envisat (2002 - ongoing), Sci-Sat (2003 - ongoing) and Aura (2004 - ongoing). Every successful satellite instrument requires a physical concept for the measurement, knowledge of physical chemical properties of the molecules to be measured, and stellar engineering to design an instrument that will survive launch and operate for years with no opportunity for repair but providing enough information that trend information can be separated from any instrument change. The on-going challenge is to use observations to decrease uncertainty in prediction. This talk will focus on two applications. The first considers transport diagnostics and implications for prediction of the eventual demise of the Antarctic ozone hole

  6. Evaluation of Predicted and Observed Data on Biotransformation of Twenty-Nine Trace Organic Chemicals

    KAUST Repository

    Bertolini, Maria

    2011-07-01

    Trace organic chemicals present in household products, pesticides, pharmaceuticals and personal care products may have adverse ecotoxicological effects once they are released to the environment. These chemicals are usually transported with the sewage to wastewater treatment facilities, where they might be attenuated depending on the degree of treatment applied prior to discharge to receiving streams. This study evaluates the removal performance of 29 trace organic compounds during two different activated sludge treatment systems. Predominant attenuation processes such as biotransformation and sorption for the target compounds were identified. Biotransformation rate constants determined in this study were used to assess removal of compounds from other treatment plants with similar operational conditions, using data gathered from the literature. The commercial software Catalogic was applied to predict environmental fate of chemicals. The software program consisted of four models able to simulate molecular transformations and to generate degradation trees. In order to assess the accuracy of this program in predicting biotransformation, one biodegradation model is used to contrast predicted degradation pathway with metabolic pathways reported in the literature. The predicted outcome was correct for more than 40 percent of the 29 targeted substances, while 38 percent of the chemicals exhibited some degree of lower agreement between predicted and observed pathways. Percent removal data determined for the two treatment facilities was compared with transformation probability output from Catalogic. About 80 percent of the 29 compounds exhibited a good correlation between probability of transformation of the parent compound and percent removal data from the two treatment plants (R2 = 0.82 and 0.9). Based upon findings for 29 trace organic chemicals regarding removal during activated sludge treatment, attacked fragments present in their structures, predicted data from

  7. Prediction of manifest Huntington's disease with clinical and imaging measures: a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, Jane S; Long, Jeffrey D; Ross, Christopher A; Harrington, Deborah L; Erwin, Cheryl J; Williams, Janet K; Westervelt, Holly James; Johnson, Hans J; Aylward, Elizabeth H; Zhang, Ying; Bockholt, H Jeremy; Barker, Roger A

    2014-12-01

    Although the association between cytosine-adenine-guanine (CAG) repeat length and age at onset of Huntington's disease is well known, improved prediction of onset would be advantageous for clinical trial design and prognostic counselling. We compared various measures for tracking progression and predicting conversion to manifest Huntington's disease. In this prospective observational study, we assessed the ability of 40 measures in five domains (motor, cognitive, psychiatric, functional, and imaging) to predict time to motor diagnosis of Huntington's disease, accounting for CAG repeat length, age, and the interaction of CAG repeat length and age. Eligible participants were individuals from the PREDICT-HD study (from 33 centres in six countries [USA, Canada, Germany, Australia, Spain, UK]) with the gene mutation for Huntington's disease but without a motor diagnosis (a rating below 4 on the diagnostic confidence level from the 15-item motor assessment of the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale). Participants were followed up between September, 2002, and July, 2014. We used joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data to examine the extent to which baseline and change of measures analysed separately was predictive of CAG-adjusted age at motor diagnosis. 1078 individuals with a CAG expansion were included in this analysis. Participants were followed up for a mean of 5·1 years (SD 3·3, range 0·0-12·0). 225 (21%) of these participants received a motor diagnosis of Huntington's disease during the study. 37 of 40 cross-sectional and longitudinal clinical and imaging measures were significant predictors of motor diagnosis beyond CAG repeat length and age. The strongest predictors were in the motor, imaging, and cognitive domains: an increase of one SD in total motor score (motor domain) increased the risk of a motor diagnosis by 3·07 times (95% CI 2·26-4·16), a reduction of one SD in putamen volume (imaging domain) increased risk by 3·32 times (2·37-4

  8. Predictive monitoring of mobile patients by combining clinical observations with data from wearable sensors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifton, Lei; Clifton, David A; Pimentel, Marco A F; Watkinson, Peter J; Tarassenko, Lionel

    2014-05-01

    The majority of patients in the hospital are ambulatory and would benefit significantly from predictive and personalized monitoring systems. Such patients are well suited to having their physiological condition monitored using low-power, minimally intrusive wearable sensors. Despite data-collection systems now being manufactured commercially, allowing physiological data to be acquired from mobile patients, little work has been undertaken on the use of the resultant data in a principled manner for robust patient care, including predictive monitoring. Most current devices generate so many false-positive alerts that devices cannot be used for routine clinical practice. This paper explores principled machine learning approaches to interpreting large quantities of continuously acquired, multivariate physiological data, using wearable patient monitors, where the goal is to provide early warning of serious physiological determination, such that a degree of predictive care may be provided. We adopt a one-class support vector machine formulation, proposing a formulation for determining the free parameters of the model using partial area under the ROC curve, a method arising from the unique requirements of performing online analysis with data from patient-worn sensors. There are few clinical evaluations of machine learning techniques in the literature, so we present results from a study at the Oxford University Hospitals NHS Trust devised to investigate the large-scale clinical use of patient-worn sensors for predictive monitoring in a ward with a high incidence of patient mortality. We show that our system can combine routine manual observations made by clinical staff with the continuous data acquired from wearable sensors. Practical considerations and recommendations based on our experiences of this clinical study are discussed, in the context of a framework for personalized monitoring.

  9. Ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) and Superstorm Sandy (2012): Coupled model predictions and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuyi S.; Curcic, Milan

    2016-07-01

    Forecasting hurricane impacts of extreme winds and flooding requires accurate prediction of hurricane structure and storm-induced ocean surface waves days in advance. The waves are complex, especially near landfall when the hurricane winds and water depth varies significantly and the surface waves refract, shoal and dissipate. In this study, we examine the spatial structure, magnitude, and directional spectrum of hurricane-induced ocean waves using a high resolution, fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model and observations. The coupled model predictions of ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) over the Gulf of Mexico and Superstorm Sandy (2012) in the northeastern Atlantic and coastal region are evaluated with the NDBC buoy and satellite altimeter observations. Although there are characteristics that are general to ocean waves in both hurricanes as documented in previous studies, wave fields in Ike and Sandy possess unique properties due mostly to the distinct wind fields and coastal bathymetry in the two storms. Several processes are found to significantly modulate hurricane surface waves near landfall. First, the phase speed and group velocities decrease as the waves become shorter and steeper in shallow water, effectively increasing surface roughness and wind stress. Second, the bottom-induced refraction acts to turn the waves toward the coast, increasing the misalignment between the wind and waves. Third, as the hurricane translates over land, the left side of the storm center is characterized by offshore winds over very short fetch, which opposes incoming swell. Landfalling hurricanes produce broader wave spectra overall than that of the open ocean. The front-left quadrant is most complex, where the combination of windsea, swell propagating against the wind, increasing wind-wave stress, and interaction with the coastal topography requires a fully coupled model to meet these challenges in hurricane wave and surge prediction.

  10. Comparisons of Observations with Results from 3D Simulations and Implications for Predictions of Ozone Recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglass, Anne R.; Stolarski, Richard S.; Strahan, Susan E.; Steenrod, Stephen D.; Polarsky, Brian C.

    2004-01-01

    Although chemistry and transport models (CTMs) include the same basic elements (photo- chemical mechanism and solver, photolysis scheme, meteorological fields, numerical transport scheme), they produce different results for the future recovery of stratospheric ozone as chlorofluorcarbons decrease. Three simulations will be contrasted: the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) CTM driven by a single year\\'s winds from a general circulation model; the GMI CTM driven by a single year\\'s winds from a data assimilation system; the NASA GSFC CTM driven by a winds from a multi-year GCM simulation. CTM results for ozone and other constituents will be compared with each other and with observations from ground-based and satellite platforms to address the following: Does the simulated ozone tendency and its latitude, altitude and seasonal dependence match that derived from observations? Does the balance from analysis of observations? Does the balance among photochemical processes match that expected from observations? Can the differences in prediction for ozone recovery be anticipated from these comparisons?

  11. Satellite Mapping of Agricultural Water Requirements in California with the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melton, F. S.; Lund, C.; Johnson, L.; Michaelis, A.; Pierce, L.; Guzman, A.; Hiatt, S.; Purdy, A. J.; Rosevelt, C.; Brandt, W. T.; Votava, P.; Nemani, R. R.

    2012-12-01

    Satellite mapping of evapotranspiration (ET) from irrigated agricultural lands can provide water managers and agricultural producers with information that can be used to optimize agricultural water use, especially in regions with limited water supplies. In particular, the timely delivery of information on agricultural crop water requirements has the potential to make irrigation scheduling more practical, convenient, and accurate. We present findings from the development and deployment of a prototype system for irrigation scheduling and management support in California. The system utilizes the NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System to integrate satellite observations and meteorological observations to map crop canopy development, basal crop coefficients (Kcb), and evapotranspiration (ETcb) values for multiple crop types in the Central Valley of California at the scale of individual fields. Information is distributed to agricultural producers and water managers via a web-based irrigation management decision support system and web services. We present the prototype system, including comparisons of estimates of ETcb from the prototype system against estimates of ET from other methods, including surface renewal stations and observations from wireless sensor networks deployed in operational agricultural fields across California. We discuss the potential for integration of ET from energy balance models to support near real-time mapping of consumptive water use and crop water stress.

  12. The importance of values in predicting Turkish youth's opinions about the European Union in light of the Copenhagen Political Criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuşdil, M Ersin; Simşek, Sefa

    2008-12-01

    The enlargement process of the European Union may be regarded as one of the most important social projects of human history in that it is trying to unite several nation-states under a "European identity." As a historically and culturally "distant" candidate, Turkey has been asked to meet a set of expectations referred to as the "Copenhagen Criteria," requiring a series of large-scale reforms to the infrastructure and superstructure of the country. Taking advantage of the unique opportunity to relate Turkish people's opinions on the criteria to their values, hypotheses based on Schwartz's model of values were tested. Schwartz's Personal Values Questionnaire and a questionnaire measuring opinions on the criteria and the Union were completed by 368 Turkish university students. Factor analysis of the opinion items yielded five factors: reduction of military influence in civil life, scepticism towards Europe and the European Union, improvement of human rights and liberties, improvement of minority rights, and lack of transparency in public institutions. Regression analyses showed that values and nationalism were powerful predictors of opinions whereas the effect of religiosity was limited only to the prediction of a preference for the reduction of military influence in civil life. Preference for openness to change values were successful in predicting variance in three of the five criteria: The more the participants favoured these values, the more they supported the improvement of human rights and liberties, the improvement of minority rights, and regretted the lack of transparency. Self-transcendence values were also positively related to support for the same three criteria together with a preference for reduction of military influence. As for nationalism, the results showed that this variable was related negatively to reduction of the military influence, improvement of human rights and liberties, improvement of minority rights; and positively to scepticism.

  13. Initializing carbon cycle predictions from the Community Land Model by assimilating global biomass observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, A. M.; Hoar, T. J.; Smith, W. K.; Moore, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    The locations and longevity of terrestrial carbon sinks remain uncertain, however it is clear that in order to predict long-term climate changes the role of the biosphere in surface energy and carbon balance must be understood and incorporated into earth system models (ESMs). Aboveground biomass, the amount of carbon stored in vegetation, is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, representing the balance of uptake through gross primary productivity (GPP), losses from respiration, senescence and mortality over hundreds of years. The best predictions of current and future land-atmosphere fluxes are likely from the integration of process-based knowledge contained in models and information from observations of changes in carbon stocks using data assimilation (DA). By exploiting long times series, it is possible to accurately detect variability and change in carbon cycle dynamics through monitoring ecosystem states, for example biomass derived from vegetation optical depth (VOD), and use this information to initialize models before making predictions. To make maximum use of information about the current state of global ecosystems when using models we have developed a system that combines the Community Land Model (CLM) with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), a community tool for ensemble DA. This DA system is highly innovative in its complexity, completeness and capabilities. Here we described a series of activities, using both Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) and real observations, that have allowed us to quantify the potential impact of assimilating VOD data into CLM-DART on future land-atmosphere fluxes. VOD data are particularly suitable to use in this activity due to their long temporal coverage and appropriate scale when combined with CLM, but their absolute values rely on many assumptions. Therefore, we have had to assess the implications of the VOD retrieval algorithms, with an emphasis on detecting uncertainty due to

  14. Comparing Observed with Predicted Weekly Influenza-Like Illness Rates during the Winter Holiday Break, United States, 2004-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Hongjiang; Wong, Karen K; Zheteyeva, Yenlik; Shi, Jianrong; Uzicanin, Amra; Rainey, Jeanette J

    2015-01-01

    In the United States, influenza season typically begins in October or November, peaks in February, and tapers off in April. During the winter holiday break, from the end of December to the beginning of January, changes in social mixing patterns, healthcare-seeking behaviors, and surveillance reporting could affect influenza-like illness (ILI) rates. We compared predicted with observed weekly ILI to examine trends around the winter break period. We examined weekly rates of ILI by region in the United States from influenza season 2003-2004 to 2012-2013. We compared observed and predicted ILI rates from week 44 to week 8 of each influenza season using the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method. Of 1,530 region, week, and year combinations, 64 observed ILI rates were significantly higher than predicted by the model. Of these, 21 occurred during the typical winter holiday break period (weeks 51-52); 12 occurred during influenza season 2012-2013. There were 46 observed ILI rates that were significantly lower than predicted. Of these, 16 occurred after the typical holiday break during week 1, eight of which occurred during season 2012-2013. Of 90 (10 HHS regions x 9 seasons) predictions during the peak week, 78 predicted ILI rates were lower than observed. Out of 73 predictions for the post-peak week, 62 ILI rates were higher than observed. There were 53 out of 73 models that had lower peak and higher post-peak predicted ILI rates than were actually observed. While most regions had ILI rates higher than predicted during winter holiday break and lower than predicted after the break during the 2012-2013 season, overall there was not a consistent relationship between observed and predicted ILI around the winter holiday break during the other influenza seasons.

  15. Polity age and political budget cycles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aaskoven, Lasse

    2018-01-01

    Incumbent incentive for competence-signaling and lack of voter information are generally thought to be factors that increase the prevalence of political budget cycles. These mechanisms should be more prevalent in new political units. Since the creation of new political units is rarely exogenous......-experimental to study whether political budget cycles are larger in new political units. Contrary to theoretical predictions, political budget cycles seem to be of a smaller scale in the new municipalities, but only regarding budget cycles in budgetary overruns. The findings are of wider interest for discussions about...... the mechanisms behind context-conditional political budget cycles....

  16. Nowcast Skill of the New York Harbor Observation and Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blumberg, A. F.; Bruno, M. S.; Fullerton, B.; Fan, S.

    2004-12-01

    The New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS) provides nowcasts and forecasts of surface/bottom currents, salinities and temperatures, waves, and water level, for the New York /New Jersey Harbor Estuary including the waters eastward to the continental shelf break of the New York Bight and Long Island Sound in one contiguous fashion. The system has been in operation since the end of 2003. The operations, from the acquisition of oceanographic and meteorological data to the delivery of marine nowcast/forecast information to a wide group of users are now automated. The observational system consists of shore-based and moored platforms at strategic locations inside the harbor, and at four sites along the coast of New Jersey, most of them equipped with both oceanographic and meteorological sensors. Ferry-based conductivity and temperature sensors are also part of the observational network. The Stevens web site imports and serves all available real-time data (www.stevens.edu/maritimeforecast). The prediction system is based on the Princeton Ocean Model and is designed to provide accurate and comprehensive realizations of meteorological and oceanographic conditions. Forcing is based on NOAA/NWS/NCEP's Mesoscale Eta 12km atmospheric forecast model, USGS river flow gauges, NOAA/NOS water level stations and effluents from 110 wastewater treatment plants. The water level at all the open boundary locations is specified by a combination of a reconstructed tidal record using tidal harmonics and by persisting the low frequency observed water level variation at Atlantic City, NJ. Temperature and salinity at the open boundaries are taken from climatology. The system is designed to automatically transfer forcing data and perform forecasts once daily, at 0000 hours. In order to firmly establish the credibility and robustness of NYHOPS, a skill assessment protocol continually runs in the background. This protocol has been implemented to quantify the accuracy of the system

  17. Satellite Irrigation Monitoring and Management Support in California with the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melton, F. S.; Johnson, L.; Lund, C.; Michaelis, A.; Pierce, L.; Guzman, A.; Hiatt, S.; Purdy, A. J.; Lee, C.; Rosevelt, C.; Fletcher, N.; Votava, P.; Milesi, C.; Hashimoto, H.; Wang, W.; Sheffner, E. J.; Nemani, R.

    2011-12-01

    Satellite data can be used to map crop evapotranspiration over large areas and make irrigation scheduling more practical, convenient, and accurate, but requires the development of new tools and computing frameworks to support operational use in irrigation scheduling and water management. We present findings from the development and deployment of a prototype system for irrigation scheduling and management support. The system utilizes the NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) to integrate satellite observations and meteorological observations to map basal crop coefficient (Kcb) and evapotranspiration (ETcb) values for multiple crop types in the Central Valley of California at spatial resolutions that are useful for irrigation management at the field level (30m). Integration of data from the NOAA NWS Forecasted Reference Evapotranspiration (FRET) system also allows forecasting of irrigation demand with lead times of up to one week, supporting both irrigation scheduling and water delivery planning. Information is distributed to agricultural producers and water managers via a web-based irrigation management decision support system, web services, and hand held devices. We also present comparisons of estimates of ETcb from the prototype system against estimates from other methods, including surface renewal stations, energy balance models, and water balance models driven with data from wireless sensor networks deployed in operational agricultural fields across California.

  18. A Simple Algorithm for Predicting Bacteremia Using Food Consumption and Shaking Chills: A Prospective Observational Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komatsu, Takayuki; Takahashi, Erika; Mishima, Kentaro; Toyoda, Takeo; Saitoh, Fumihiro; Yasuda, Akari; Matsuoka, Joe; Sugita, Manabu; Branch, Joel; Aoki, Makoto; Tierney, Lawrence; Inoue, Kenji

    2017-07-01

    Predicting the presence of true bacteremia based on clinical examination is unreliable. We aimed to construct a simple algorithm for predicting true bacteremia by using food consumption and shaking chills. A prospective multicenter observational study. Three hospital centers in a large Japanese city. In total, 1,943 hospitalized patients aged 14 to 96 years who underwent blood culture acquisitions between April 2013 and August 2014 were enrolled. Patients with anorexia-inducing conditions were excluded. We assessed the patients' oral food intake based on the meal immediately prior to the blood culture with definition as "normal food consumption" when >80% of a meal was consumed and "poor food consumption" when <80% was consumed. We also concurrently evaluated for a history of shaking chills. We calculated the statistical characteristics of food consumption and shaking chills for the presence of true bacteremia, and subsequently built the algorithm by using recursive partitioning analysis. Among 1,943 patients, 223 cases were true bacteremia. Among patients with normal food consumption, without shaking chills, the incidence of true bacteremia was 2.4% (13/552). Among patients with poor food consumption and shaking chills, the incidence of true bacteremia was 47.7% (51/107). The presence of poor food consumption had a sensitivity of 93.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 89.4%-97.9%) for true bacteremia, and the absence of poor food consumption (ie, normal food consumption) had a negative likelihood ratio (LR) of 0.18 (95% CI, 0.17-0.19) for excluding true bacteremia, respectively. Conversely, the presence of the shaking chills had a specificity of 95.1% (95% CI, 90.7%-99.4%) and a positive LR of 4.78 (95% CI, 4.56-5.00) for true bacteremia. A 2-item screening checklist for food consumption and shaking chills had excellent statistical properties as a brief screening instrument for predicting true bacteremia. © 2017 Society of Hospital Medicine

  19. Observations and Predictability of Gap Winds in the Salmon River Canyon of Central Idaho, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie S. Wagenbrenner

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This work investigates gap winds in a steep, deep river canyon prone to wildland fire. The driving mechanisms and the potential for forecasting the gap winds are investigated. The onset and strength of the gap winds are found to be correlated to the formation of an along-gap pressure gradient linked to periodic development of a thermal trough in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Numerical simulations are performed using a reanalysis dataset to investigate the ability of numerical weather prediction (NWP to simulate the observed gap wind events, including the timing and flow characteristics within the canyon. The effects of model horizontal grid spacing and terrain representation are considered. The reanalysis simulations suggest that horizontal grid spacings used in operational NWP could be sufficient for simulating the gap flow events given the regional-scale depression in which the Salmon River Canyon is situated. The strength of the events, however, is under-predicted due, at least in part, to terrain smoothing in the model. Routine NWP, however, is found to have mixed results in terms of forecasting the gap wind events, primarily due to problems in simulating the regional sea level pressure system correctly.

  20. Observed and predicted cooling tower plume rise at the John E. Amos Power Plant, West Virginia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanna, S.R.

    1977-01-01

    There is much current interest in cooling tower plume rise because of its importance in determining the environmental impact of cooling towers at planned power plants and industrial facilities. Some of the possible environmental problems related to heat and water emissions from cooling towers are drift deposition, ground level fog, cloud formation, and precipitation enhancement. An important factor in all of these problems is the calculation of the plume trajectory, which is often complicated by the presence of multiple sources and water phase changes in the plume. The latent heat does not strongly influence plume rise if there is no cloud present at the top of the plume. A one dimensional plume and cloud growth model was developed to study these effects. In this paper, the predictions of the model are compared with observations of cooling tower plume rise at the John E. Amos, W. Va. fossil-fuel power plant

  1. GPS - VTEC in the American sector during a high solar activity year Observations and IRI predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Ezquer, R G; Casleo, S J; Casleo, S J; Kiorcheff, E; Meza, A; Mosert, M; Oviedo, R D V; Radicella, S M

    2002-01-01

    VTEC measurements obtained with GPS satellite signals during year 1999 are used to check the validity of IRI to predict this ionospheric variable in the American sector. Measurements obtained during June solstice and September equinox at 9 stations are considered. The considered latitude range extends from 18.4 to -64.7 and the longitude ranges from 281.3 to 297.7. The deviation between modelled and measured values was obtained. The results show that for solstice the model overestimates VTEC at nighttime, sunrise and sunset hours and underestimates VTEC for daylight hours at northern stations. For the South, IRI overestimates the VTEC for all hours of the day during solstice. Good agreement was observed for some cases during equinox. Additional studies covering more stations and conditions and using ionosonde data will be useful to complete the IRI validation.

  2. Correlation between predicted and observed levels of airborne tritium at Lawrence Livermore Laboratory site boundary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindeken, C.L.; Silver, W.J.; Toy, A.J.; White, J.H.

    1980-01-01

    At the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, a computer code based on the Gaussian plume model is used to estimate radiation doses from routine or accidental release of airborne radioactive material. Routine releases of tritium have been used as a test of the overall uncertainty associated with these estimates. The ration of concentration to release rate at distances from the two principal release points to each of six site boundary sampling locations has been calcuated using local meteorological data. The concentration of airborne tritiated water vapor is continuously measured at the six sampling stations as part of the Laboratory's environmental monitoring program. Comparison of predicted with observed annual tritiated water concentrations in 1978 showed an average ratio of 2.6 with a range of from 0.97 to 5.8

  3. Real time simulation of nonlinear generalized predictive control for wind energy conversion system with nonlinear observer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouari, Kamel; Rekioua, Toufik; Ouhrouche, Mohand

    2014-01-01

    In order to make a wind power generation truly cost-effective and reliable, an advanced control techniques must be used. In this paper, we develop a new control strategy, using nonlinear generalized predictive control (NGPC) approach, for DFIG-based wind turbine. The proposed control law is based on two points: NGPC-based torque-current control loop generating the rotor reference voltage and NGPC-based speed control loop that provides the torque reference. In order to enhance the robustness of the controller, a disturbance observer is designed to estimate the aerodynamic torque which is considered as an unknown perturbation. Finally, a real-time simulation is carried out to illustrate the performance of the proposed controller. Copyright © 2013 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. GPS - VTEC in the American sector during a high solar activity year: Observations and IRI predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ezquer, R.G.; Brunini, C.; Meza, A.; Mosert, M.; Oviedo, R. del V.; Kiorcheff, E.; Radicella, S.M.

    2003-01-01

    VTEC measurements obtained with GPS satellite signals during year 1999 are used to check the validity of IRI to predict this ionospheric variable in the American sector. Measurements obtained during June solstice and September equinox at 9 stations are considered. The considered latitude range extends from 18.4 to -64.7 and the longitude ranges from 281.3 to 297.7. The deviation between modelled and measured values was obtained. The results show that for solstice the model overestimates VTEC at nighttime, sunrise and sunset hours and underestimates VTEC for daylight hours at northern stations. For the South, IRI overestimates the VTEC for all hours of the day during solstice. Good agreement was observed for some cases during equinox. Additional studies covering more stations and conditions and using ionosonde data will be useful to complete the IRI validation. (author)

  5. Predicting Near Real-Time Inundation Occurrence from Complimentary Satellite Microwave Brightness Temperature Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, C. K.; Pan, M.; Wood, E. F.

    2017-12-01

    Throughout the world, there is an increasing need for new methods and data that can aid decision makers, emergency responders and scientists in the monitoring of flood events as they happen. In many regions, it is possible to examine the extent of historical and real-time inundation occurrence from visible and infrared imagery provided by sensors such as MODIS or the Landsat TM; however, this is not possible in regions that are densely vegetated or are under persistent cloud cover. In addition, there is often a temporal mismatch between the sampling of a particular sensor and a given flood event, leading to limited observations in near real-time. As a result, there is a need for alternative methods that take full advantage of complimentary remotely sensed data sources, such as available microwave brightness temperature observations (e.g., SMAP, SMOS, AMSR2, AMSR-E, and GMI), to aid in the estimation of global flooding. The objective of this work was to develop a high-resolution mapping of inundated areas derived from multiple satellite microwave sensor observations with a daily temporal resolution. This system consists of first retrieving water fractions from complimentary microwave sensors (AMSR-2 and SMAP) which may spatially and temporally overlap in the region of interest. Using additional information in a Random Forest classifier, including high resolution topography and multiple datasets of inundated area (both historical and empirical), the resulting retrievals are spatially downscaled to derive estimates of the extent of inundation at a scale relevant to management and flood response activities ( 90m or better) instead of the relatively coarse resolution water fractions, which are limited by the microwave sensor footprints ( 5-50km). Here we present the training and validation of this method for the 2015 floods that occurred in Houston, Texas. Comparing the predicted inundation against historical occurrence maps derived from the Landsat TM record and MODIS

  6. The Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task (SPORT): A Multinational Science Mission using a CubeSat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spann, J. F.; Habash Krause, L.; Swenson, C.; Heelis, R. A.; Bishop, R. L.; Le, G.; Abdu, M. A.; Durão, O.; Loures, L.; De Nardin, C. M.; Shibuya, L.; Casas, J.; Nash-STevenson, S.; Muralikrishana, P.; Costa, J. E. R.; Wrasse, C. M.; Fry, C. D.

    2017-12-01

    The Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task (SPORT) is a 6U CubeSat pathfinder mission to address the very compelling but difficult problem of understanding the preconditions leading to equatorial plasma bubbles. The scientific literature describes the preconditions in both the plasma drifts and the density profiles related to bubble formations that occur several hours later in the evening. Most of the scientific discovery has resulted from observations at the Jicamarca Radio Observatory from Peru, a single site, within a single longitude sector. SPORT will provide a systematic study of the state of the pre-bubble conditions at all longitudes sectors to allow us to understand the differences between geography and magnetic geometry. This talk will present an overview of the mission and the anticipated data products. Products include global maps of scintillation occurrence as a function of local time, and magnetic conjugacy occurrence observations. SPORT is a multinational partnership between NASA, the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE), and the Technical Aeronautics Institute under the Brazilian Air Force Command Department (DCTA/ITA). It has been encouraged by U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) to foster increased cooperation and ties between academics, civilian space programs and the militaries. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center is coordinating this investigation by overseeing the launch to orbit and the flight instruments, which are being built by the Aerospace Corporation, University of Texas Dallas, Utah State University, and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The Brazilian partners are contributing the spacecraft, observatory integration and test, ground observation networks, and mission operations and data management. The science data will be distributed from and archived at the INPE/EMBRACE regional space-weather forecasting center in Brazil, and mirrored at the NASA GSFC Space Physics Data Facility (SPDF).

  7. Variational assimilation of land surface temperature observations for enhanced river flow predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercolani, Giulia; Castelli, Fabio

    2016-04-01

    Data assimilation (DA) has the potential of improving hydrologic forecasts. However, many issues arise in case it is employed for spatially distributed hydrologic models that describes processes in various compartments: large dimensionality of the inverse problem, layers governed by different equations, non-linear and discontinuous model structure, complex topology of domains such as surface drainage and river network.On the other hand, integrated models offer the possibility of improving prediction of specific states by exploiting observations of quantities belonging to other compartments. In terms of forecasting river discharges, and hence for their enhancement, soil moisture is a key variable, since it determines the partitioning of rainfall into infiltration and surface runoff. However, soil moisture measurements are affected by issues that could prevent a successful DA and an actual improvement of discharge predictions.In-situ measurements suffer a dramatic spatial scarcity, while observations from satellite are barely accurate and provide spatial information only at a very coarse scale (around 40 km).Hydrologic models that explicitly represent land surface processes of coupled water and energy balance provide a valid alternative to direct DA of soil moisture.They gives the possibility of inferring soil moisture states through DA of remotely sensed Land Surface Temperature (LST), whose measurements are more accurate and with a higher spatial resolution in respect to those of soil moisture. In this work we present the assimilation of LST data in a hydrologic model (Mobidic) that is part of the operational forecasting chain for the Arno river, central Italy, with the aim of improving flood predictions. Mobidic is a raster based, continuous in time and distributed in space hydrologic model, with coupled mass and energy balance at the surface and coupled groundwater and surface hydrology. The variational approach is adopted for DA, since it requires less

  8. Spiritual Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric Rambeau

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available According to Foucault, the uprising of the Iranian people in the seventies reveals how much the political force of Islam is due precisely to the fact that it is not principally located in the field of politics, but in that of ethics. Religion (Shiite Islam appears as the guarantee of real change in the very mode of existence. This spiritual politics is marginalized by Marxism, where it is understood as a discontinuity in relation to proper politics, given that the latter is necessarily linked to a strategic rationalization. By indicating, at this juncture of what is intolerable, the living source and the critical impulse of the Foucauldian ethics, this spiritual politics also leads to recognize in the concept of “subjectivation” a dimension that might escape the circle of freedom as determined by a total immanence to power. This conceptual possibility is highly present in the aporias of the Foucauldian concept of the “relation to oneself”, both as a first condition of governmentality and the ultimate point of resistance against any governmentality. It thus reveals the difficulties in relating political to ethical subjectivation.

  9. Parenting and Politics: Exploring Early Moral Bases of Political Orientation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronnie Janoff-Bulman

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Based on Lakoff’s (2002 Strict Father and Nurturant Parent metaphors for political conservatism and liberalism respectively, two studies explored parenting styles, political ideology, and the moral orientations that might link the two. Restrictive parenting (by both mother and father predicted political conservatism, and this path was mediated by a strong Social Order orientation (Study 1 reflecting, more broadly, an inhibition-based proscriptive morality (Study 2. Political liberalism was associated with a Social Justice orientation, but was not predicted by nurturant parenting in either study. Study 1 included mothers’ reports of their own parenting, and these were correlated with the students’ responses. Findings support a restrictive moral underpinning for conservatism, but raise questions about the assumed unique association between parental nurturance and political liberalism, which is addressed in the discussion.

  10. Prediction and near-field observation of skull-guided acoustic waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, Héctor; Rebling, Johannes; Razansky, Daniel

    2017-06-01

    Ultrasound waves propagating in water or soft biological tissue are strongly reflected when encountering the skull, which limits the use of ultrasound-based techniques in transcranial imaging and therapeutic applications. Current knowledge on the acoustic properties of the cranial bone is restricted to far-field observations, leaving its near-field unexplored. We report on the existence of skull-guided acoustic waves, which was herein confirmed by near-field measurements of optoacoustically-induced responses in ex-vivo murine skulls immersed in water. Dispersion of the guided waves was found to reasonably agree with the prediction of a multilayered flat plate model. We observed a skull-guided wave propagation over a lateral distance of at least 3 mm, with a half-decay length in the direction perpendicular to the skull ranging from 35 to 300 μm at 6 and 0.5 MHz, respectively. Propagation losses are mostly attributed to the heterogenous acoustic properties of the skull. It is generally anticipated that our findings may facilitate and broaden the application of ultrasound-mediated techniques in brain diagnostics and therapy.

  11. Seasonal sea ice predictions for the Arctic based on assimilation of remotely sensed observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauker, F.; Kaminski, T.; Ricker, R.; Toudal-Pedersen, L.; Dybkjaer, G.; Melsheimer, C.; Eastwood, S.; Sumata, H.; Karcher, M.; Gerdes, R.

    2015-10-01

    The recent thinning and shrinking of the Arctic sea ice cover has increased the interest in seasonal sea ice forecasts. Typical tools for such forecasts are numerical models of the coupled ocean sea ice system such as the North Atlantic/Arctic Ocean Sea Ice Model (NAOSIM). The model uses as input the initial state of the system and the atmospheric boundary condition over the forecasting period. This study investigates the potential of remotely sensed ice thickness observations in constraining the initial model state. For this purpose it employs a variational assimilation system around NAOSIM and the Alfred Wegener Institute's CryoSat-2 ice thickness product in conjunction with the University of Bremen's snow depth product and the OSI SAF ice concentration and sea surface temperature products. We investigate the skill of predictions of the summer ice conditions starting in March for three different years. Straightforward assimilation of the above combination of data streams results in slight improvements over some regions (especially in the Beaufort Sea) but degrades the over-all fit to independent observations. A considerable enhancement of forecast skill is demonstrated for a bias correction scheme for the CryoSat-2 ice thickness product that uses a spatially varying scaling factor.

  12. Using fire-weather forecasts and local weather observations in predicting burning index for individual fire-danger stations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen P. Cramer

    1958-01-01

    Any agency engaged in forest-fire control needs accurate weather forecasts and systematic procedures for making the best use of predicted and reported weather information. This study explores the practicability of using several tabular and graphical aids for converting area forecasts and local observations of relative humidity and wind speed into predicted values for...

  13. New England observed and predicted July maximum negative stream/river temperature daily rate of change points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted July stream/river temperature maximum negative daily rate of change in New England based on a...

  14. New England observed and predicted July stream/river temperature maximum positive daily rate of change points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted July stream/river temperature maximum positive daily rate of change in New England based on a...

  15. New England observed and predicted August stream/river temperature maximum positive daily rate of change points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted August stream/river temperature maximum positive daily rate of change in New England based on a...

  16. Mixing politics and crime

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munksgaard, Rasmus; Demant, Jakob Johan

    2016-01-01

    is specifically libertarian. The aim of the paper is to investigate the prevalence of political discourses within discussions of cryptomarket drug dealing, and further to research the potential changes of these over the timespan of the study. Methods We develop a novel operationalization of discourse analytic...... still observe political matter. We identified one topic which expresses a libertarian discourse that emphasizes the individual's right to non-interference. Over time we observe an increasing prevalence of the libertarian discourse from 2011 to the end of 2013. In the end of 2013 - when Silk Road...... was seized - we observe an abrupt change in the prevalence of the libertarian discourse. Conclusions The libertarian political discourse has historically been prevalent on cryptomarket forums. The closure of Silk Road has affected the prevalence of libertarian discourse suggesting that while the closure did...

  17. Improvement of Operational Streamflow Prediction with MODIS-derived Fractional Snow Covered Area Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, S.; Burgess, A.; Goodale, C. E.; Mattmann, C. A.; Miller, W. P.; Painter, T. H.; Rittger, K. E.; Stokes, M.; Werner, K.

    2013-12-01

    Water managers in the western United States depend heavily on the timing and magnitude of snowmelt-driven runoff for municipal supply, irrigation, maintenance of environmental flows, and power generation. The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) of the National Weather Service issues operational forecasts of snowmelt-driven streamflow for watersheds within the Colorado River Basin (CRB) and eastern Great Basin (EGB), across a wide variety of scales. Therefore, the CBRFC and its stakeholders consider snowpack observations to be highly valuable. Observations of fractional snow covered area (fSCA) from satellite-borne instrumentation can better inform both forecasters and water users with respect to subsequent snowmelt runoff, particularly when combined with observations from ground-based station networks and/or airborne platforms. As part of a multi-year collaborative effort, CBRFC has partnered with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) under funding from NASA to incorporate observations of fSCA from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) into the operational CBRFC hydrologic forecasting and modeling process. In the first year of the collaboration, CBRFC and NASA/JPL integrated snow products into the forecasting and decision making processes of the CBRFC and showed preliminary improvement in operational streamflow forecasts. In late 2012, CBRFC and NASA/JPL began retrospective analysis of relationships between the MODIS Snow Covered Area and Grain size (MODSCAG) fSCA and streamflow patterns for several watersheds within the CRB and the EGB. During the 2013 snowmelt runoff season, CBRFC forecasters used MODIS-derived fSCA semi-quantitatively as a binary indicator of the presence or lack of snow. Indication of the presence or lack of snow by MODIS assisted CBRFC forecasters in determining the cause of divergence between modeled and recently observed streamflow. Several examples of improved forecasts from across the CRB and EGB, informed by

  18. Mass balance of Djankuat Glacier, Central Caucasus: observations, modeling and prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rybak, Oleg; Mariia, Kaminskaia; Stanislav, Kutuzov; Ivan, Lavrentiev; Polina, Morozova; Victor, Popovnin; Elena, Rybak

    2017-04-01

    Djankuat is a typical valley glacier on the northern slope of the main Caucasus chain. Its present day area is approximately 2.5 square km with the characteristic ice thickness of several tens of meters. As well as other glaciers in the region, Djankuat has been shrinking during the last several decades, its cumulative mass balance in 1968-2016 was equal to -13.6 m w.e. In general, Caucasus' glaciers lost approximately one-third of their area and half of the volume. Prediction of further deradation of glaciers in changing environment is a challenging task because rivers fed by glacier melt water provide from 40 to 70% of the total river run-off in the adjacent piedmont territories. Growing demand in fresh water is rather critical for the local economy development and for growing population, motivating elaboration of an effitient instrument for evaluation and forecasting of the glaciation in the Greater Caucasus. Unfortunately, systematic observations are sparse limiting possibilities for proper model development for the most of the glaciers. Under these circumstances, we have to rely on the models developed for the few well-studied ones, like Djankuat, which is probably one of the most explored glaciers in the world. Accumulation and ablation rates have been observed here systematically and uninterruptedly since mid 60-ies using dense stake network. Together with the mass balance components, changes in flow velocity, ice thickness and geometry were regularly evaluated. During the last several ablation seasons, direct meteorological observations were carried out using an AMS. Long series of meteorological observations at the nearest weather station allow making assessment of the glacier response to climate change in the second half of the 20th century. Abundant observation data gave us the opportunity to elaborate, calibrate and validate an efficient mathematical model of surface mass balance of a typical glacier in the region. Since many glaciers in the Caucasus

  19. Political symbols and political transitions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herrero de Miñón, Miguel

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Politics, Law and Psychology are fields that come together in the symbolic. This text takes evidence from those three areas to develop an analysis of political symbols and political transitions. The development of the analysis goes through three stages. The first succinctly describes the concept of transition and its meaning. The second closely examines the notion of the symbol, in terms of its definition, to explain aspects that allow us to understand it, characterise it and make its functions clear. Finally, from the author's experience as a witness and as an actor, I suggest three ways of understanding symbols in the processes of political transition: as symbols of change, as symbols of acknowledgment, and as symbols of support.

  20. Translation of clinical prediction rules for febrile children to primary care practice: an observational cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ierland, Yvette; Elshout, Gijs; Berger, Marjolein Y; Vergouwe, Yvonne; de Wilde, Marcel; van der Lei, Johan; Mol, Henriëtte A; Oostenbrink, Rianne

    2015-04-01

    Clinical prediction rules (CPRs) to identify children with serious infections lack validation in low-prevalence populations, which hampers their implementation in primary care practice. To evaluate the diagnostic value of published CPRs for febrile children in primary care. Observational cohort study among febrile children (cooperatives (GPCs) in the Netherlands. Alarm signs of serious infection and clinical management were extracted from routine clinical practice data and manually recoded with a structured electronic data-entry program. Eight CPRs were selected from literature. CPR-variables were matched with alarm signs and CPRs were applied to the GPC-population. 'Referral to emergency department (ED)' was used as a proxy outcome measure for 'serious infection'. CPR performance was assessed by calibration analyses, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the ROC-curve (ROC-area). A total of 9794 GPC-contacts were eligible, 54% male, median age 2.3 years (interquartile range 1.0-4.6 years) and 8.1% referred to ED. Frequencies of CPR-variables varied from 0.5% (cyanosis, drowsy) to 25% (temperature ≥40°C). Alarm signs frequently included in CPRs were 'ill appearance', 'inconsolable', and 'abnormal circulatory or respiratory signs'. The height of the CPR's predicted risks generally corresponded with being (or not being) referred to the ED in practice. However, calibration-slopes indicated that three CPRs underestimated the risk of serious infection in the GPC-population. Sensitivities ranged from 42% to 54%, specificities from 68% to 89%. ROC-areas ranged from 0.52 to 0.81, with best performance of CPRs for children aged <3 months. Published CPRs performed moderately well in the primary out-of-hours care population. Advice is given on how to improve translation of CPRs to primary care practice. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

  1. Predicting global thunderstorm activity for sprite observations from the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yair, Y.; Mezuman, K.; Ziv, B.; Priente, M.; Glickman, M.; Takahashi, Y.; Inoue, T.

    2012-04-01

    The global rate of sprites occurring above thunderstorms, estimated from the ISUAL satellite data, is ~0.5 per minute (Chen et al., 2008). During the summer 2011, in the framework of the "Cosmic Shore" project, we conducted a concentrated attempt to image sprites from the ISS. The methodology for target selection was based on that developed for the space shuttle MEIDEX sprite campaign (Ziv et al., 2004). There are several types of convective systems generating thunderstorms which differ in their effectiveness for sprite production (Lyons et al., 2009), and so we had to evaluate the ability of the predicted storms to produce sprites. We used the Aviation Weather Center (http://aviationweather.gov) daily significant weather forecast maps (SIGWX) to select regions with high probability for convective storms and lightning such that they were within the camera filed-of-view as deduced from the ISS trajectory and distance to the limb. In order to enhance the chance for success, only storms with predicted "Frequent Cb" and cloud tops above 45 Kft (~14 km) were selected. Additionally, we targeted tropical storms and hurricanes over the oceans. The accuracy of the forecast method enabled obtaining the first-ever color images of sprites from space. We will report the observations showing various types of sprites in many different geographical locations, and correlated parent lightning properties derived from ELF and global and local lightning location networks. Chen, A. B., et al. (2008), Global distributions and occurrence rates of transient luminous events, J. Geophys. Res., 113,A08306, doi:10.1029/2008JA013101 Lyons, W. A., et al. (2009), The meteorological and electrical structure of TLE-producing convective storms. In: Betz et al. (eds.): Lighting: principles instruments and applications, Springer-Science + Business Media B.V.. Ziv, B., Y. Yair, K. Pressman and M. Fullekrug, (2004), Verification of the Aviation Center global forecasts of Mesoscale Convective Systems

  2. Gateway Political Behaviors: The Frequency and Consequences of Low-Cost Political Engagement on Social Media

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leticia Bode

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to determine to what extent engagement in easy political behaviors on social media occurs across the range of political interest, what predicts such engagement, and what effect such engagement may have on other political behaviors. It pits the idea that social media may activate the politically uninterested against the idea that social media is just another outlet for the politically interested to demonstrate their engagement. Analyzing survey data collected by the Pew Research Center, it concludes that many people, including the politically uninterested, do engage in easy political behaviors like liking and commenting on political content on social media. When they do, it can lead to greater political activity offline. However, those most likely to engage in easy political behaviors are also those who engage in harder political behaviors, offering support for both the interest and activation hypotheses.

  3. Exploring students' perceptions and performance on predict-observe-explain tasks in high school chemistry laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vadapally, Praveen

    This study sought to understand the impact of gender and reasoning level on students' perceptions and performances of Predict-Observe-Explain (POE) laboratory tasks in a high school chemistry laboratory. Several literature reviews have reported that students at all levels have not developed the specific knowledge and skills that were expected from their laboratory work. Studies conducted over the last several decades have found that boys tend to be more successful than girls in science and mathematics courses. However, some recent studies have suggested that girls may be reducing this gender gap. This gender difference is the focal point of this research study, which was conducted at a mid-western, rural high school. The participants were 24 boys and 25 girls enrolled in two physical science classes taught by the same teacher. In this mixed methods study, qualitative and quantitative methods were implemented simultaneously over the entire period of the study. MANOVA statistics revealed significant effects due to gender and level of reasoning on the outcome variables, which were POE performances and perceptions of the chemistry laboratory environment. There were no significant interactions between these effects. For the qualitative method, IRB-approved information was collected, coded, grouped, and analyzed. This method was used to derive themes from students' responses on questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. Students with different levels of reasoning and gender were interviewed, and many of them expressed positive themes, which was a clear indication that they had enjoyed participating in the POE learning tasks and they had developed positive perceptions towards POE inquiry laboratory learning environment. When students are capable of formal reasoning, they can use an abstract scientific concept effectively and then relate it to the ideas they generate in their minds. Thus, instructors should factor the nature of students' thinking abilities into their

  4. Psychedelics, Personality and Political Perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nour, Matthew M; Evans, Lisa; Carhart-Harris, Robin L

    2017-01-01

    The psychedelic experience (including psychedelic-induced ego dissolution) can effect lasting change in a person's attitudes and beliefs. Here, we aimed to investigate the association between naturalistic psychedelic use and personality, political perspectives, and nature relatedness using an anonymous internet survey. Participants (N = 893) provided information about their naturalistic psychedelic, cocaine, and alcohol use, and answered questions relating to personality traits of openness and conscientiousness (Ten-Item Personality Inventory), nature relatedness (Nature-Relatedness Scale), and political attitudes (one-item liberalism-conservatism measure and five-item libertarian-authoritarian measure). Participants also rated the degree of ego dissolution experienced during their "most intense" recalled psychedelic experience (Ego-Dissolution Inventory). Multivariate linear regression analysis indicated that lifetime psychedelic use (but not lifetime cocaine use or weekly alcohol consumption) positively predicted liberal political views, openness and nature relatedness, and negatively predicted authoritarian political views, after accounting for potential confounding variables. Ego dissolution experienced during a participant's "most intense" psychedelic experience positively predicted liberal political views, openness and nature relatedness, and negatively predicted authoritarian political views. Further work is needed to investigate the nature of the relationship between the peak psychedelic experience and openness to new experiences, egalitarian political views, and concern for the environment.

  5. A Lagrangian analysis of a developing and non-developing disturbance observed during the PREDICT experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Rutherford

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The problem of tropical cyclone formation requires among other things an improved understanding of recirculating flow regions on sub-synoptic scales in a time evolving flow with typically sparse real-time data. This recirculation problem has previously been approached assuming as a first approximation both a layer-wise two-dimensional and nearly steady flow in a co-moving frame with the parent tropical wave or disturbance. This paper provides an introduction of Lagrangian techniques for locating flow boundaries that encompass regions of recirculation in time-dependent flows that relax the steady flow approximation.

    Lagrangian methods detect recirculating regions from time-dependent data and offer a more complete methodology than the approximate steady framework. The Lagrangian reference frame follows particle trajectories so that flow boundaries which constrain particle transport can be viewed in a frame-independent setting. Finite-time Lagrangian scalar field methods from dynamical systems theory offer a way to compute boundaries from grids of particles seeded in and near a disturbance.

    The methods are applied to both a developing and non-developing disturbance observed during the recent pre-depression investigation of cloud systems in the tropics (PREDICT experiment. The data for this analysis is derived from global forecast model output that assimilated the dropsonde observations as they were being collected by research aircraft. Since Lagrangian methods require trajectory integrations, we address some practical issues of using Lagrangian methods in the tropical cyclogenesis problem. Lagrangian diagnostics are used to evaluate the previously hypothesized import of dry air into ex-Gaston, which did not re-develop into a tropical cyclone, and the exclusion of dry air from pre-Karl, which did become a tropical cyclone and later a major hurricane.

  6. Political Predation and Economic Development

    OpenAIRE

    Azam, Jean-Paul; Bates, Robert H; Biais, Bruno

    2005-01-01

    Economic growth occurs as resources are reallocated from the traditional sector to the more productive modern sector. Yet, the latter is more vulnerable to political predation. Hence, political risk hinders development. We analyse a politico-economic game between citizens and governments, whose type (benevolent or predatory) is unknown to the citizens. In equilibrium, opportunistic governments mix between predation and restraint. As long as restraint is observed, political expectations improv...

  7. Hydroxyl radical observations during the wintertime in Beijing and comparison with photochemical steady state predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whalley, Lisa; Woodward-Massey, Robert; Slater, Eloise; Ye, Chunxiang; Heard, Dwayne; Crilley, Leigh; Kramer, Louisa; Bloss, William; Squires, Freya; Dunmore, Rachel; Lee, James

    2017-04-01

    In Beijing, a megacity of more than 21 million inhabitants, poor urban air quality has a demonstrable effect on human health. During the wintertime, anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel combustion can lead to high aerosol loadings and frequent haze events. A high oxidation capacity on hazy days has previously been inferred from the significant contribution secondary organic aerosol (SOA) make to total PM2.5 (Huang et al., 2014). The hydroxyl radical (OH) mediates virtually all of the oxidative chemistry in the atmosphere, being responsible for the transformation of primary emissions into secondary pollutants such as NO2, O3 and SOA. Understanding the sources and sinks of OH in the atmosphere is essential in improving predictions of the lifetimes and chemical processing of pollutants and spatial scales of their transport within urban areas. We will present OH measurements made in central Beijing during the recent 'An Integrated Study of AIR Pollution PROcesses in Beijing (AIRPRO)' project which took place in November and December 2016. We will compare the OH observations, made over a range of meteorological conditions including a number of haze episodes, to steady state calculations constrained to the total OH reactivity and key OH precursors that were measured alongside. Through this comparison we will identify the major OH sources which sustain the wintertime oxidation capacity.

  8. Comparison of predicted and observed pore pressure increases on Rio Blanco

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banister, J.R.; Ellett, D.M.; Pyke, R.; Winters, L.

    1976-01-01

    The RIO BLANCO event presented the opportunity to monitor, under controlled conditions in the field, the increase in pore pressures resulting from ground motion similar to an earthquake. In situ measurements of pore pressure changes were made by Sandia Laboratories and Dames and Moore. This report contains the results of laboratory tests believed to be indicative in assessing the magnitude of pore pressure increases and probability of soil liquefaction. These include triaxial load tests, gradation of grain size, and relative density. No liquefaction was observed in the field, and the increase of in situ pore pressures were much less than expected from laboratory measurements. Allied subjects presented in this report are pore pressure propagation and dissipation profiles, the previously unpublished pore pressure measurements made by Dames and Moore, and the boring logs for the various sites where measurements were taken. It is concluded that methods used to predict pore pressure increases and liquefaction potential are overly conservative, at least for these alluvial and colluvial soils found in Colorado

  9. The missing link: Predicting connectomes from noisy and partially observed tract tracing data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hinne, Max; Meijers, Annet; Bakker, Rembrandt

    2017-01-01

    Our understanding of the wiring map of the brain, known as the connectome, has increased greatly in the last decade, mostly due to technological advancements in neuroimaging techniques and improvements in computational tools to interpret the vast amount of available data. Despite this, with the e......Our understanding of the wiring map of the brain, known as the connectome, has increased greatly in the last decade, mostly due to technological advancements in neuroimaging techniques and improvements in computational tools to interpret the vast amount of available data. Despite this......, with the exception of the C. elegans roundworm, no definitive connectome has been established for any species. In order to obtain this, tracer studies are particularly appealing, as these have proven highly reliable. The downside of tract tracing is that it is costly to perform, and can only be applied ex vivo...... observations (i.e. anterograde and retrograde tracers) for the mouse neocortex. Finally, our probabilistic approach enables us to make explicit which connections are easy to predict and which prove difficult, allowing for informed follow-up studies....

  10. The use of zeolites in countermeasure strategy: predicted versus observed effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valcke, E.; Van Hees, M.; Cremers, A.

    1996-09-18

    Among the possible remedial actions to reduce the soil-to-plant transfer of radiocaesium and radiostrontium, the addition of clay minerals or zeolites aims at increasing permanently the radionuclide fraction adsorbed on the solid phase, thus lowering the radionuclide solution level available for root uptake. The traditional procedure to test the effectiveness of such amendments is rather empirical: the amendments are applied to the soil and the effect is expressed in terms of the change of the transfer factor, defined as the ratio of Bq per kilogram plant and soil. This procedure yields no insight in the processes responsible for the observed effect and does not allow predictions for other scenarios. Based on the knowledge that soil-to-plant transfer essentially depends on soil type, the use of soil amendments was investigated by quantitatively addressing the physico-chemical parameters which govern solid/liquid partitioning of radionuclides in soils and soil amendments. It is shown that this approach allows to identify the potential soil/amendment combinations to estimate the effects to be expected.

  11. Predict-share-observe-explain learning activity for the Torricelli's tank experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panich, Charunya; Puttharugsa, Chokchai; Khemmani, Supitch

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to study the students' scientific concept and achievement on fluid mechanics before and after the predict-share-observe-explain (PSOE) learning activity for the Torricelli's tank experiment. The 24 participants, who were selected by purposive sampling, were students at grade 12 at Nannakorn School, Nan province. A one group pre-test/post-test design was employed in the study. The research instruments were 1) the lesson plans using the PSOE learning activity and 2) two-tier multiple choice question and subjective tests. The results indicated that students had better scientific concept about Torricelli's tank experiment and the post-test mean score was significantly higher than the pre-test mean score at a 0.05 level of significance. Moreover, the students had retention of knowledge after the PSOE learning activity for 4 weeks at a 0.05 level of significance. The study showed that the PSOE learning activity is suitable for developing students' scientific concept and achievement.

  12. Political ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strohm, H.

    1979-01-01

    Using facts and examples, this didactically structures textbook gives an insight into the extent and consequences of the damage to the environment, with the subjects - fundamentals of ecology; - population and food problems; - the energy problem; - economic growth; scarcity of resources, recycling; - ground, water, and air pollution, - city and traffic problems; - work protection and medical care; - political alternatives and 'soft technologies'. The analysis of the political and economic reasons is combined with social and technical alternatives from which demands to be made and measures to be taken can be derived for individuals, citizens' interest groups, political groups and trade unions. Teaching models intend to help teachers to work on specific problems of ecology. (orig.) [de

  13. Political priorities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ren, Jingzheng

    2016-01-01

    …THE POLITICAL LEADERS of the local government of Chongqing, China, vigorously promote a low-carbon economy and sustainable development to mitigate environmental pollution. Accordingly, research grants focused on this issue were supported by the government, and our group obtained a grant for a pr...... for a project about industrial park planning and design.…In my view, political priorities based on correct decision-making and market requirements are beneficial for researchers.......…THE POLITICAL LEADERS of the local government of Chongqing, China, vigorously promote a low-carbon economy and sustainable development to mitigate environmental pollution. Accordingly, research grants focused on this issue were supported by the government, and our group obtained a grant...

  14. Data politics

    OpenAIRE

    Bigo, Didier; Isin, Engin; Ruppert, Evelyn

    2017-01-01

    The commentary raises political questions about the ways in which data has been constituted as an object vested withcertain powers, influence, and rationalities.We place the emergence and transformation of professional practices such as‘data science’, ‘data journalism’, ‘data brokerage’, ‘data mining’, ‘data storage’, and ‘data analysis’ as part of the reconfigurationof a series of fields of power and knowledge in the public and private accumulation of data. Data politics asksquestions about ...

  15. 'Grounded' Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Garbi

    2012-01-01

    A prominent strand within current migration research argues that, to understand the participation of immigrants in their host societies, we must focus on their incorporation into the cities in which they settle. This article narrows the perspective further by focusing on the role that immigrants...... play within one particular neighbourhood: Nørrebro in the Danish capital, Copenhagen. The article introduces the concept of grounded politics to analyse how groups of Muslim immigrants in Nørrebro use the space, relationships and history of the neighbourhood for identity political statements...

  16. Political Consciousness but Not Political Engagement: Results from a Service-Learning Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harker, Dave

    2016-01-01

    How does participation in a service-learning program impact the way students think about politics and political engagement? There are reasons to expect that service-learning can contribute to the development of a political consciousness and the skills necessary for political participation. The author uses participant observation, in-depth…

  17. Hybrid Model for Early Onset Prediction of Driver Fatigue with Observable Cues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingheng Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a hybrid model for early onset prediction of driver fatigue, which is the major reason of severe traffic accidents. The proposed method divides the prediction problem into three stages, that is, SVM-based model for predicting the early onset driver fatigue state, GA-based model for optimizing the parameters in the SVM, and PCA-based model for reducing the dimensionality of the complex features datasets. The model and algorithm are illustrated with driving experiment data and comparison results also show that the hybrid method can generally provide a better performance for driver fatigue state prediction.

  18. Politics 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslow, Abraham

    1977-01-01

    This article expresses some last thoughts from Abraham Maslow on his vision of humanistic psychology. He suggests that the two main problems of creating the good person and the good society are interwoven inextricably. He gives some social and political mechanisms which would enhance desirable personal growth and considers the main tasks of…

  19. Political bugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, W. R.

    1972-01-01

    Certain decisions, problems, and successes are selected to recall the great impact of the 1950s on the history of rocketry, and particularly the inauguration of the space age. In reviewing the history of the Redstone, Juno, and Jupiter, some of the largest stepping stones to space, problems stand out in three areas: technical or engineering, management, and political.

  20. Political polarization

    OpenAIRE

    Dixit, Avinash K.; Weibull, Jörgen W.

    2007-01-01

    Failures of government policies often provoke opposite reactions from citizens; some call for a reversal of the policy, whereas others favor its continuation in stronger form. We offer an explanation of such polarization, based on a natural bimodality of preferences in political and economic contexts and consistent with Bayesian rationality.

  1. Political polarization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixit, Avinash K; Weibull, Jörgen W

    2007-05-01

    Failures of government policies often provoke opposite reactions from citizens; some call for a reversal of the policy, whereas others favor its continuation in stronger form. We offer an explanation of such polarization, based on a natural bimodality of preferences in political and economic contexts and consistent with Bayesian rationality.

  2. Framing politics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lecheler, S.K.

    2010-01-01

    This dissertation supplies a number of research findings that add to a theory of news framing effects, and also to the understanding of the role media effects play in political communication. We show that researchers must think more about what actually constitutes a framing effect, and that a

  3. Political Rationality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solhaug, Trond; Kristensen, Niels Nørgaard

    The very idea about democracies is public participation in elections, decision-making and/or public engagement. The democratic participation distributes power among ordinary people and serve to legitimize decisions in public affairs and is a vital characteristic of a political culture.”The term ’...

  4. Predicting the optical observables for nucleon scattering on even-even actinides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martyanov, D. S.; Soukhovitskiĩ, E. Sh.; Capote, R.; Quesada, J. M.; Chiba, S.

    2017-09-01

    The previously derived Lane consistent dispersive coupled-channel optical model for nucleon scattering on 232Th and 238U nuclei is extended to describe scattering on even-even actinides with Z = 90-98. A soft-rotator-model (SRM) description of the low-lying nuclear structure is used, where the SRM Hamiltonian parameters are adjusted to the observed collective levels of the target nucleus. SRM nuclear wave functions (mixed in K quantum number) have been used to calculate the coupling matrix elements of the generalized optical model. The “effective” deformations that define inter-band couplings are derived from the SRM Hamiltonian parameters. Conservation of nuclear volume is enforced by introducing a dynamic monopolar term to the deformed potential, leading to additional couplings between rotational bands. The fitted static deformation parameters are in very good agreement with those derived by Wang and collaborators using the Weizsäcker-Skyrme global mass model (WS4), allowing use of the latter to predict cross sections for nuclei without experimental data. A good description of the scarce “optical” experimental database is achieved. SRM couplings and volume conservation allow a precise calculation of the compound-nucleus formation cross sections, which is significantly different from that calculated with rigid-rotor potentials coupling the ground-state rotational band. The derived parameters can be used to describe both neutron- and proton-induced reactions. Supported by International Atomic Energy Agency, through the IAEA Research Contract 19263, by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitivity under Contracts FPA2014-53290-C2-2-P and FPA2016-77689-C2-1-R.

  5. Diabetes that impacts on routine activities predicts slower recovery after total knee arthroplasty: an observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurudeen Amusat

    2014-12-01

    . Physiotherapists could institute closer monitoring within the hospital and community settings for people undergoing TKA who perceive that diabetes impacts on their routine activities. [Amusat N, Beaupre L, Jhangri GS, Pohar SL, Simpson S, Warren S, Jones CA (2014 Diabetes that impacts on routine activities predicts slower recovery after total knee arthroplasty: an observational study. Journal of Physiotherapy 60: 217–223

  6. A novel machine learning model to predict abnormal Runway Occupancy Times and observe related precursors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herrema, Herrema Floris; Treve, V; Desart, B; Curran, R.; Visser, H.G.

    2017-01-01

    Accidents on the runway triggered the development and implementation of mitigation strategies. Therefore, the airline industry is moving toward proactive risk management, which aims to identify and predict risk percursors and to mitigate risks before accidents occur. For certain predictions Machine

  7. Using ERS spaceborne microwave soil moisture observations to predict groundwater head in space and time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sutanudjaja, E.H.; De Jong, S.M.; Van Geer, F.C.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2013-01-01

    The study presented in this paper is to investigate the possibility of using spaceborne remote sensing data for groundwater head prediction. Remotely-sensed soil moisture time series of SWI (Soil Water Index) derived from ERS (European Remote Sensing) scatterometers are used to predict groundwater

  8. Prediction of methotrexate intolerance in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: a prospective, observational cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dijkhuizen, Evert Hendrik Pieter; Bulatović Ćalasan, Maja; Pluijm, Saskia M F; de Rotte, Maurits C F J; Vastert, Sebastiaan J; Kamphuis, Sylvia; de Jonge, Robert; Wulffraat, Nico M

    2015-01-01

    Methotrexate (MTX) is an effective and safe drug in the treatment of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Despite its safety, MTX-related gastrointestinal adverse effects before and after MTX administration, termed MTX intolerance, occur frequently, leading to non-compliance and potentially premature MTX termination. The aim of this study was to construct a risk model to predict MTX intolerance. In a prospective JIA cohort, clinical variables and single nucleotide polymorphisms were determined at MTX start. The Methotrexate Intolerance Severity Score was employed to measure MTX intolerance in the first year of treatment. MTX intolerance was most prevalent at 6 or 12 months after MTX start, which was defined as the outcome for the prediction model. The model was developed in 152 patients using multivariable logistic regression analysis and subsequently internally validated using bootstrapping. The prediction model included the following predictors: JIA category, antinuclear antibody, parent/patient assessment of pain, Juvenile Arthritis Disease Activity Score-27, thrombocytes, alanine aminotransferase and creatinine. The model classified 77.5% of patients correctly, and 66.7% of patients after internal validation by bootstrapping. The lowest predicted risk of MTX intolerance was 18.9% and the highest predicted risk was 85.9%. The prediction model was transformed into a risk score (range 0-17). At a cut-off of ≥6, sensitivity was 82.0%, specificity 56.1%, positive predictive value was 58.7% and negative predictive value 80.4%. This clinical prediction model showed moderate predictive power to detect MTX intolerance. To develop into a clinically usable tool, it should be validated in an independent cohort and updated with new predictors. Such an easy-to-use tool could then assist clinicians in identifying patients at risk to develop MTX intolerance, and in turn to monitor them closely and intervene timely in order to prevent the development of MTX intolerance

  9. Prediction of human observer performance in a 2-alternative forced choice low-contrast detection task using channelized Hotelling observer: Impact of radiation dose and reconstruction algorithms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Lifeng; Leng Shuai; Chen Lingyun; Kofler, James M.; McCollough, Cynthia H.; Carter, Rickey E.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Efficient optimization of CT protocols demands a quantitative approach to predicting human observer performance on specific tasks at various scan and reconstruction settings. The goal of this work was to investigate how well a channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) can predict human observer performance on 2-alternative forced choice (2AFC) lesion-detection tasks at various dose levels and two different reconstruction algorithms: a filtered-backprojection (FBP) and an iterative reconstruction (IR) method. Methods: A 35 × 26 cm 2 torso-shaped phantom filled with water was used to simulate an average-sized patient. Three rods with different diameters (small: 3 mm; medium: 5 mm; large: 9 mm) were placed in the center region of the phantom to simulate small, medium, and large lesions. The contrast relative to background was −15 HU at 120 kV. The phantom was scanned 100 times using automatic exposure control each at 60, 120, 240, 360, and 480 quality reference mAs on a 128-slice scanner. After removing the three rods, the water phantom was again scanned 100 times to provide signal-absent background images at the exact same locations. By extracting regions of interest around the three rods and on the signal-absent images, the authors generated 21 2AFC studies. Each 2AFC study had 100 trials, with each trial consisting of a signal-present image and a signal-absent image side-by-side in randomized order. In total, 2100 trials were presented to both the model and human observers. Four medical physicists acted as human observers. For the model observer, the authors used a CHO with Gabor channels, which involves six channel passbands, five orientations, and two phases, leading to a total of 60 channels. The performance predicted by the CHO was compared with that obtained by four medical physicists at each 2AFC study. Results: The human and model observers were highly correlated at each dose level for each lesion size for both FBP and IR. The Pearson's product

  10. Observed and predicted changes in virulence gene frequencies at 11 loci in a local barley powdery mildew population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hovmøller, M.S.; Munk, L.; Østergård, H.

    1993-01-01

    a survey comprising 11 virulence loc. Predictions were based on a model where selection forces were estimated through detailed mapping in the local area of host cultivars and their resistance genes, and taking into account the changes in distribution of host cultivars during the year caused by growth......The aim of the present study was to investigate observed and predicted changes in virulence gene frequencies in a local aerial powdery mildew population subject to selection by different host cultivars in a local barley area. Observed changes were based on genotypic frequencies obtained through...... with a constant distribution of host cultivars. Significant changes in gene frequencies were observed for virulence genes subject to strong direct selection as well as for genes subject mainly to indirect selection (hitchhiking). These patterns of changes were generally as predicted from the model. The influence...

  11. Accuracy of clinical prediction rules in peptic ulcer perforation: an observational study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buck, David Levarett; Vester-Andersen, Morten; Møller, Morten Hylander

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Objective. The aim of the present study was to compare the ability of four clinical prediction rules to predict adverse outcome in perforated peptic ulcer (PPU): the Boey score, the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation...... and breastfeeding women, non-surgically treated patients, patients with malignant ulcers, and patients with perforation of other organs were excluded. Primary outcome measure: 30-day mortality rate. Statistical analysis: the ability of four clinical prediction rules to distinguish survivors from non...

  12. Guido Beck and the night of the long police batons: some observations about the relationship between physics and politics in the Argentinean context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Augusto Passos Videira

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper consists in presenting the reaction of the physicist Guido Beck (1903-1988 towards the political events that occurred in the University of Buenos Aires (UBA, during the second term of 1966. It is not our intention to write a deep treatise on the problem, but to outline some of the ideas that Guido Beck had on the relation between science, State and society in South-American context. That will be done by describing his reaction to the well-known ‘night of the long police batons’. Beck had always been sensitive to the political instability in Argentinean academic system, once that political and ideological disputes could jeopardize the work towards the establishment of a scientific community in that country. As a conclusion, I defend the thesis that in Beck’s point of view the physicists at UBA had misunderstood the importance they had to Argentinean government and to part of the population in that same country.

  13. The Politics of Political Correctness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minsky, Leonard

    1992-01-01

    This article reacts to President Bush's entry into the dispute over "political correctness" on college campuses. The paper summarizes discussions of students, faculty, and others in the Washington, D.C. area which concluded that this seeming defense of free speech is actually an attack on affirmative action and multiculturalism stemming…

  14. Observation method to predict meander migration and vertical degradation of rivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-01

    Meander migration and vertical degradation of river bed are processes that have been studied for years. : Different methods have been proposed to make predictions of the behavior of rivers with respect to these : processes. These two erosion controll...

  15. The Emotional Eating Scale: Can a self-report measure predict observed emotional eating?

    OpenAIRE

    Schneider, Kristin L.; Panza, Emily; Appelhans, Bradley M.; Whited, Matthew C.; Oleski, Jessica L.; Pagoto, Sherry L.

    2012-01-01

    We assessed the validity of the Emotional Eating Scale (EES) by examining whether the EES predicted food intake following two negative mood inductions. Participants underwent mood inductions for anxiety, anger and neutral mood, then received snack foods in a sham palatability test. EES anxiety, but not anger, predicted intake. Participants high on EES anxiety consumed more snacks during the anxiety mood induction, whereas participants low on EES anxiety consumed less snacks. Results suggest t...

  16. Predicting out-of-office blood pressure level using repeated measurements in the clinic: an observational cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheppard, James P.; Holder, Roger; Nichols, Linda; Bray, Emma; Hobbs, F.D. Richard; Mant, Jonathan; Little, Paul; Williams, Bryan; Greenfield, Sheila; McManus, Richard J.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: Identification of people with lower (white-coat effect) or higher (masked effect) blood pressure at home compared to the clinic usually requires ambulatory or home monitoring. This study assessed whether changes in SBP with repeated measurement at a single clinic predict subsequent differences between clinic and home measurements. Methods: This study used an observational cohort design and included 220 individuals aged 35–84 years, receiving treatment for hypertension, but whose SBP was not controlled. The characteristics of change in SBP over six clinic readings were defined as the SBP drop, the slope and the quadratic coefficient using polynomial regression modelling. The predictive abilities of these characteristics for lower or higher home SBP readings were investigated with logistic regression and repeated operating characteristic analysis. Results: The single clinic SBP drop was predictive of the white-coat effect with a sensitivity of 90%, specificity of 50%, positive predictive value of 56% and negative predictive value of 88%. Predictive values for the masked effect and those of the slope and quadratic coefficient were slightly lower, but when the slope and quadratic variables were combined, the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for the masked effect were improved to 91, 48, 24 and 97%, respectively. Conclusion: Characteristics obtainable from multiple SBP measurements in a single clinic in patients with treated hypertension appear to reasonably predict those unlikely to have a large white-coat or masked effect, potentially allowing better targeting of out-of-office monitoring in routine clinical practice. PMID:25144295

  17. Gendered Politics

    OpenAIRE

    Luconi, Stefano

    2016-01-01

    Political incorporation resulting from voter participation is often a relevant feature of the migration experience. When the legislation of the receiving nations enables the newcomers to get naturalized and grants citizenship to their children born in the adoptive country by means of the jus soli, as is the case of the United States, casting ballots in the elections of the land of their destination usually becomes part of the first and second-generation immigrants’ accommodation into the host...

  18. Predicting extreme rainfall events over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia: Impact of data assimilation with conventional and satellite observations

    KAUST Repository

    Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu

    2015-08-20

    The impact of variational data assimilation for predicting two heavy rainfall events that caused devastating floods in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia is studied using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. On 25 November 2009 and 26 January 2011, the city was deluged with more than double the annual rainfall amount caused by convective storms. We used a high resolution, two-way nested domain WRF model to simulate the two rainfall episodes. Simulations include control runs initialized with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) data and 3-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) data assimilation experiments conducted by assimilating NCEP prepbufr and radiance observations. Observations from Automated Weather Stations (AWS), synoptic charts, radar reflectivity and satellite pictures from the Presidency of Meteorology and Environment (PME), Jeddah, Saudi Arabia are used to assess the forecasting results. To evaluate the impact of the different assimilated observational datasets on the simulation of the major flooding event of 2009, we conducted 3DVAR experiments assimilating individual sources and a combination of all data sets. Results suggest that while the control run had a tendency to predict the storm earlier than observed, the assimilation of profile observations greatly improved the model\\'s thermodynamic structure and lead to better representation of simulated rainfall both in timing and amount. The experiment with assimilation of all available observations compared best with observed rainfall in terms of timing of the storm and rainfall distribution, demonstrating the importance of assimilating different types of observations. Retrospective experiments with and without data assimilation, for three different model lead times (48, 72 and 96-h), were performed to examine the skill of WRF model to predict the heavy rainfall events. Quantitative rainfall analysis of these simulations suggests that 48-h lead time runs with

  19. Climate-Induced Change in South Central Siberia: Predictions Versus Current Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soja, A. J.; Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Shishikin, A.; Kanzai, V.; Westberg, D. J.; Sukhinin, A. I.; Ivanova, G. A.; Stackhouse, P. W.

    2007-12-01

    Atmosphere Ocean General Circulations Models (AOGCM) are in agreement that Siberia is expected to experience warming in excess of 40% above global mean temperature increases by 2100. Moreover, it is predicted temperature increases will be evident in both the summer and winter. In association with changes in climate, the extent of the fire season, the amount of area burned and fire severity are predicted to increase. Fire regime increases are predicted to be the catalyst for ecosystem change, which will force ecosystems to move more rapidly towards equilibrium with the climate. Bioclimatic model results predict expansive changes in ecosystems, from a landscape dominated by taiga to a landscape dominated by steppe and forest-steppe. The focus of this investigation is on south, central Siberia in the Sayan Mountains and the Tyvan Republic, where one would expect to find the initial signs of climate change. The Sayan mountain range offers relatively abrupt change in ecosystems that are often defined by altitude, temperature and precipitation. Tyva is located at a vulnerable southern border, south of the Sayan, and contains 9 Biospheric Reserves, each representing distinct ecosystems. Additionally, Tyva is the home of several relic Pinus sylvestris forests. In these regions, January temperature increases have exceeded those predicted by the Hadley Centre scenario for 2090, and July temperatures are well below predictions. Predicted increases in rainfall are not apparent, and generally, precipitation change has been negative. The growing season length has already increased by about 6 to 12 days. Consequently, several of the relic pine forests have burned (some repeatedly), and natural regeneration is not visible at several sites, even one that had been re-planted on several occasions. In the last decades, these regions have experienced changes in climate and, potentially, initial signs of ecosystem change. In this report, we present a concentrated view of one region that

  20. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Daily Maximum Air Temperature Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observational reports of daily air temperature (1200 UTC to 1200 UTC) are made by members of the NWS Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) network; NWS...

  1. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Daily Snow Fall Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observational reports of daily snow fall (1200 UTC to 1200 UTC) are made by members of the NWS Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) network and NWS Cooperative...

  2. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Daily Snow Depth Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observational reports of current snow depth (at 1200 UTC) are made by members of the NWS Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) network and NWS Cooperative...

  3. Predicting detection performance with model observers: Fourier domain or spatial domain?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Baiyu; Yu, Lifeng; Leng, Shuai; Kofler, James; Favazza, Christopher; Vrieze, Thomas; McCollough, Cynthia

    2016-02-27

    The use of Fourier domain model observer is challenged by iterative reconstruction (IR), because IR algorithms are nonlinear and IR images have noise texture different from that of FBP. A modified Fourier domain model observer, which incorporates nonlinear noise and resolution properties, has been proposed for IR and needs to be validated with human detection performance. On the other hand, the spatial domain model observer is theoretically applicable to IR, but more computationally intensive than the Fourier domain method. The purpose of this study is to compare the modified Fourier domain model observer to the spatial domain model observer with both FBP and IR images, using human detection performance as the gold standard. A phantom with inserts of various low contrast levels and sizes was repeatedly scanned 100 times on a third-generation, dual-source CT scanner at 5 dose levels and reconstructed using FBP and IR algorithms. The human detection performance of the inserts was measured via a 2-alternative-forced-choice (2AFC) test. In addition, two model observer performances were calculated, including a Fourier domain non-prewhitening model observer and a spatial domain channelized Hotelling observer. The performance of these two mode observers was compared in terms of how well they correlated with human observer performance. Our results demonstrated that the spatial domain model observer correlated well with human observers across various dose levels, object contrast levels, and object sizes. The Fourier domain observer correlated well with human observers using FBP images, but overestimated the detection performance using IR images.

  4. Development and validation of PRE-DELIRIC (PREdiction of DELIRium in ICu patients) delirium prediction model for intensive care patients: observational multicentre study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Boogaard, M; Pickkers, P; Slooter, A J C; Kuiper, M A; Spronk, P E; van der Voort, P H J; van der Hoeven, J G; Donders, R; van Achterberg, T; Schoonhoven, L

    2012-02-09

    To develop and validate a delirium prediction model for adult intensive care patients and determine its additional value compared with prediction by caregivers. Observational multicentre study. Five intensive care units in the Netherlands (two university hospitals and three university affiliated teaching hospitals). 3056 intensive care patients aged 18 years or over. Development of delirium (defined as at least one positive delirium screening) during patients' stay in intensive care. The model was developed using 1613 consecutive intensive care patients in one hospital and temporally validated using 549 patients from the same hospital. For external validation, data were collected from 894 patients in four other hospitals. The prediction (PRE-DELIRIC) model contains 10 risk factors-age, APACHE-II score, admission group, coma, infection, metabolic acidosis, use of sedatives and morphine, urea concentration, and urgent admission. The model had an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.87 (95% confidence interval 0.85 to 0.89) and 0.86 after bootstrapping. Temporal validation and external validation resulted in areas under the curve of 0.89 (0.86 to 0.92) and 0.84 (0.82 to 0.87). The pooled area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (n=3056) was 0.85 (0.84 to 0.87). The area under the curve for nurses' and physicians' predictions (n=124) was significantly lower at 0.59 (0.49 to 0.70) for both. The PRE-DELIRIC model for intensive care patients consists of 10 risk factors that are readily available within 24 hours after intensive care admission and has a high predictive value. Clinical prediction by nurses and physicians performed significantly worse. The model allows for early prediction of delirium and initiation of preventive measures. Trial registration Clinical trials NCT00604773 (development study) and NCT00961389 (validation study).

  5. Comparing large-scale hydrological model predictions with observed streamflow in the Pacific Northwest: effects of climate and groundwater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammad Safeeq; Guillaume S. Mauger; Gordon E. Grant; Ivan Arismendi; Alan F. Hamlet; Se-Yeun Lee

    2014-01-01

    Assessing uncertainties in hydrologic models can improve accuracy in predicting future streamflow. Here, simulated streamflows using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model at coarse (1/16°) and fine (1/120°) spatial resolutions were evaluated against observed streamflows from 217 watersheds. In...

  6. Predictive modelling for swallowing dysfunction after primary (chemo)radiation : Results of a prospective observational study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Christianen, Miranda E M C; Schilstra, Cornelis; Beetz, Ivo; Muijs, C.T.; Chouvalova, Olga; Burlage, Fred R.; Doornaert, P.; Koken, P.W.; Leemans, C.R.; Rinkel, R.N.; de Bruijn, M.J.; de Bock, G.H.; Roodenburg, J.L.; van der Laan, B.F.; Slotman, B.J.; Verdonck-de Leeuw, I.M.; Bijl, Hendrik P.; Langendijk, J.A.

    2012-01-01

    Background and purpose: The purpose of this large multicentre prospective cohort study was to identify which dose volume histogram parameters and pre-treatment factors are most important to predict physician-rated and patient-rated radiation-induced swallowing dysfunction (RISD) in order to develop

  7. Predictive modelling for swallowing dysfunction after primary (chemo)radiation: Results of a prospective observational study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Christianen, M.E.M.C.; Schilstra, C.; Beetz, I.; Muijs, C.T.; Chouvalova, O.; Burlage, F.R.; Doornaert, P.A.H.; Koken, P.W.; Leemans, C.R.; Rinkel, R.N.P.M.; de Bruijn, M.J.; de Bock, G.H.; Roodenburg, J.L.N.; van Laan, B.F.A.M.; Slotman, B.J.; de Leeuw, I.M.; Bijl, H.P.; Langendijk, J.A.

    2012-01-01

    Background and purpose: The purpose of this large multicentre prospective cohort study was to identify which dose volume histogram parameters and pre-treatment factors are most important to predict physician-rated and patient-rated radiation-induced swallowing dysfunction (RISD) in order to develop

  8. Translation of clinical prediction rules for febrile children to primary care practice : an observational cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ierland, Yvette; Elshout, Gijs; Berger, Marjolein Y.; Vergouwe, Yvonne; de Wilde, Marcel; van der Lei, Johan; Mol, Henritte A.; Oostenbrink, Rianne

    Background Clinical prediction rules (CPRs) to identify children with serious infections lack validation in low-prevalence populations, which hampers their implementation in primary care practice. Aim To evaluate the diagnostic value of published CPRs for febrile children in primary care. Design and

  9. Predicting adherence to acupuncture appointments for low back pain: a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, Felicity L; Yardley, Lucy; Cooper, Cyrus; Little, Paul; Lewith, George

    2017-01-03

    Acupuncture is a popular form of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM), but it is not clear why patients do (or do not) follow acupuncturists' treatment recommendations. This study aimed to investigate theoretically-derived predictors of adherence to acupuncture. In a prospective study, adults receiving acupuncture for low back pain completed validated questionnaires at baseline, 2 weeks, 3 months, and 6 months. Patients and acupuncturists reported attendance. Logistic regression tested whether illness perceptions, treatment beliefs, and treatment appraisals measured at 2 weeks predicted attendance at all recommended acupuncture appointments. Three hundred twenty-four people participated (aged 18-89 years, M = 55.9, SD = 14.4; 70% female). 165 (51%) attended all recommended acupuncture appointments. Adherence was predicted by appraising acupuncture as credible, appraising the acupuncturist positively, appraising practicalities of treatment positively, and holding pro-acupuncture treatment beliefs. A multivariable logistic regression model including demographic, clinical, and psychological predictors, fit the data well (χ 2 (21) = 52.723, p acupuncture appointments was predicted by illness perceptions, treatment beliefs, and treatment appraisals. However, experiencing early changes in symptoms did not predict attendance. Acupuncturists could make small changes to consultations and service organisation to encourage attendance at recommended appointments and thus potentially improve patient outcomes.

  10. CADDIS Volume 4. Data Analysis: Predicting Environmental Conditions from Biological Observations (PECBO Appendix)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overview of PECBO Module, using scripts to infer environmental conditions from biological observations, statistically estimating species-environment relationships, methods for inferring environmental conditions, statistical scripts in module.

  11. Political balance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hopmann, David Nicolas; Van Aelst, Peter; Salgado, Susana

    2017-01-01

    Before every election campaign, the French Conseil supérieur de l’audiovisuel (CSA) publishes detailed rules on how much news coverage candidates are allowed to have vis-à-vis one another in the electronic media to ensure what it calls pluralisme politique (e.g., CSA 2011). Also outside election...... and control news coverage (mainly public broadcasters) or have informal rules that determine news coverage of politics (Hopmann, Van Aelst, and Legnante 2012; Kaid and Strömbäck 2008)....

  12. Political Epistemology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, David Budtz

    2011-01-01

    This dissertation is intended to establish a framework for a revised picture of the loci of epistemic preferences in our complex knowledge-based society. In what ways do institutions, policies and regulations determine the conditions under which knowledge is produced and justified? This dissertat......This dissertation is intended to establish a framework for a revised picture of the loci of epistemic preferences in our complex knowledge-based society. In what ways do institutions, policies and regulations determine the conditions under which knowledge is produced and justified......? This dissertation argues that we can identify multiple epistemic preferences in the institutional and political settings that govern the production and distribution of knowledge....

  13. Interactivity and Political Communication: New Media Tools and their Impact on Public Political Communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burton Speakman

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Based on the interactivity theory, this study examines relationships between people’s political media commentary online and through traditional methods. Data from Pew Research Center (N= 2,253 shows that those who were actively participated in political discourse using traditional methods were more likely to make statements on newspaper websites and using social media about politics. Higher level of education also predicted participation in political communication in the new media environment.

  14. Predictive models for observer performance in CT: applications in protocol optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, S.; Li, X.; Yadava, G.; Samei, E.

    2011-03-01

    The relationship between theoretical descriptions of imaging performance (Fourier-based) and the performance of real human observers was investigated for detection tasks in multi-slice CT. The detectability index for the Fisher-Hotelling model observer and non-prewhitening model observer (with and without internal noise and eye filter) was computed using: 1) the measured modulation transfer function (MTF) and noise-power spectrum (NPS) for CT; and 2) a Fourier description of imaging task. Based upon CT images of human patients with added simulated lesions, human observer performance was assessed via an observer study in terms of the area under the ROC curve (Az). The degree to which the detectability index correlated with human observer performance was investigated and results for the non-prewhitening model observer with internal noise and eye filter (NPWE) were found to agree best with human performance over a broad range of imaging conditions. Results provided initial validation that CT image acquisition and reconstruction parameters can be optimized for observer performance rather than system performance (i.e., contrast-to-noise ratio, MTF, and NPS). The NPWE model was further applied for the comparison of FBP with a novel modelbased iterative reconstruction algorithm to assess its potential for dose reduction.

  15. Emotional Bias in Classroom Observations: Within-Rater Positive Emotion Predicts Favorable Assessments of Classroom Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floman, James L.; Hagelskamp, Carolin; Brackett, Marc A.; Rivers, Susan E.

    2017-01-01

    Classroom observations increasingly inform high-stakes decisions and research in education, including the allocation of school funding and the evaluation of school-based interventions. However, trends in rater scoring tendencies over time may undermine the reliability of classroom observations. Accordingly, the present investigations, grounded in…

  16. What is the Best Model Specification and Earth Observation Product for Predicting Regional Grain Yields in Food Insecure Countries?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davenport, F., IV; Harrison, L.; Shukla, S.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.

    2017-12-01

    We evaluate the predictive accuracy of an ensemble of empirical model specifications that use earth observation data to predict sub-national grain yields in Mexico and East Africa. Products that are actively used for seasonal drought monitoring are tested as yield predictors. Our research is driven by the fact that East Africa is a region where decisions regarding agricultural production are critical to preventing the loss of economic livelihoods and human life. Regional grain yield forecasts can be used to anticipate availability and prices of key staples, which can turn can inform decisions about targeting humanitarian response such as food aid. Our objective is to identify-for a given region, grain, and time year- what type of model and/or earth observation can most accurately predict end of season yields. We fit a set of models to county level panel data from Mexico, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia. We then examine out of sample predicative accuracy using various linear and non-linear models that incorporate spatial and time varying coefficients. We compare accuracy within and across models that use predictor variables from remotely sensed measures of precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and other land surface processes. We also examine at what point in the season a given model or product is most useful for determining predictive accuracy. Finally we compare predictive accuracy across a variety of agricultural regimes including high intensity irrigated commercial agricultural and rain fed subsistence level farms.

  17. Status of the observed and predicted b anti-b production at the Tevatron

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Happacher, F.; Giromini, P.; /Frascati; Ptohos, F.; /Cyprus U.

    2005-09-01

    The authors review the experimental status of the b-quark production at the Fermilab Tevatron. They compare all available measurements to perturbative QCD predictions (NLO and FONLL) and also to the parton-level cross section evaluated with parton-shower Monte Carlo generators. They examine both the single b cross section and the so called b{bar b} correlations. The review shows that the experimental situation is quite complicated because the measurements appear to be inconsistent among themselves. In this situation, there is no solid basis to either claim that perturbative QCD is challenged by these measurements or, in contrast, that long-standing discrepancies between data and theory have been resolved by incrementally improving the measurements and the theoretical prediction.

  18. Distributed Sensor Network for meteorological observations and numerical weather Prediction Calculations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Á. Vas

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The prediction of weather generally means the solution of differential equations on the base of the measured initial conditions where the data of close and distant neighboring points are used for the calculations. It requires the maintenance of expensive weather stations and supercomputers. However, if weather stations are not only capable of measuring but can also communicate with each other, then these smart sensors can also be applied to run forecasting calculations. This applies the highest possible level of parallelization without the collection of measured data into one place. Furthermore, if more nodes are involved, the result becomes more accurate, but the computing power required from one node does not increase. Our Distributed Sensor Network for meteorological sensing and numerical weather Prediction Calculations (DSN-PC can be applied in several different areas where sensing and numerical calculations, even the solution of differential equations, are needed.

  19. Assimilating Citizen-Based Observations from Low-Cost Sensors in Hydrological Models to Improve Flood Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzoleni, M.; Alfonso, L.; Solomatine, D.

    2015-12-01

    The main goal of this study is to demonstrate how integration of citizen-based observations coming from low-cost sensors (having variable uncertainty and intermittent characteristics) into hydrological models can be used to improve flood prediction. The methodology is applied in the Brue basin, located in the South-West part of UK. In order to estimate the response of the catchment to a given flood event, a conceptual hydrological model is implemented. The measured precipitation values are used as perfect forecast input in the hydrological models. Then, a Kalman filter is implemented and adapted to account for asynchronous streamflow observations coming at irregular time steps having random uncertainty. Synthetic streamflow values are used in this study due to the fact that citizen-based observations are not available. The results show how streamflow observations having variable uncertainty can improve the flood prediction. In particular, increasing the number of observations from low-cost sensors within two model time steps can improve the model accuracy leading to a better flood forecast. Observations uncertainty influences the model accuracy more than the irregular moments in which the streamflow observations are assimilated into the hydrological model. This study is part of the FP7 European Project WeSenseIt Citizen Water Observatory (www.http://wesenseit.eu/).

  20. Diagnostic accuracy of bedside tests for predicting difficult intubation in Indian population: An observational study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhanger, Sangeeta; Gupta, Suman Lata; Vinayagam, Stalin; Bidkar, Prasanna Udupi; Elakkumanan, Lenin Babu; Badhe, Ashok Shankar

    2016-01-01

    Background: Unanticipated difficult intubation can be challenging to anesthesiologists, and various bedside tests have been tried to predict difficult intubation. Aims: The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of difficult intubation in the Indian population and also to determine the diagnostic accuracy of bedside tests in predicting difficult intubation. Settings and Design: In this study, 200 patients belonging to age group 18–60 years of American Society of Anesthesiologists I and II, scheduled for surgery under general anesthesia requiring endotracheal intubation were enrolled. Patients with upper airway pathology, neck mass, and cervical spine injury were excluded from the study. Materials and Methods: An attending anesthesiologist conducted preoperative assessment and recorded parameters such as body mass index, modified Mallampati grading, inter-incisor distance, neck circumference, and thyromental distance (NC/TMD). After standard anesthetic induction, laryngoscopy was performed, and intubation difficulty assessed using intubation difficulty scale on the basis of seven variables. Statistical Analysis: The Chi-square test or student t-test was performed when appropriate. The binary multivariate logistic regression (forward-Wald) model was used to determine the independent risk factors. Results: Among the 200 patients, 26 patients had difficult intubation with an incidence of 13%. Among different variables, the Mallampati score and NC/TMD were independently associated with difficult intubation. Receiver operating characteristic curve showed a cut-off point of 3 or 4 for Mallampati score and 5.62 for NC/TMD to predict difficult intubation. Conclusion: The diagnostic accuracy of NC/TM ratio and Mallampatti score were better compared to other bedside tests to predict difficult intubation in Indian population. PMID:26957691

  1. Observed fearlessness and positive parenting interact to predict childhood callous-unemotional behaviors among low-income boys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waller, Rebecca; Shaw, Daniel S; Hyde, Luke W

    2017-03-01

    Callous-unemotional behaviors identify children at risk for severe and chronic antisocial behavior. Research is needed to establish pathways from temperament and parenting factors that give rise to callous-unemotional behaviors, including interactions of positive versus harsh parenting with child fearlessness. Multimethod data, including parent reports and observations of parent and child behavior, were drawn from a prospective, longitudinal sample of low-income boys (N = 310) with assessments at 18, 24, and 42 months, and at ages 10-12 years old. Parent-reported callous-unemotional, oppositional, and attention-deficit factors were separable at 42 months. Callous-unemotional behaviors at 42 months predicted callous-unemotional behaviors at ages 10-12, accounting for earlier oppositional and attention-deficit behaviors and self-reported child delinquency at ages 10-12. Observations of fearlessness at 24 months predicted callous-unemotional behaviors at 42 months, but only when parents exhibited low observed levels of positive parenting. The interaction of fearlessness and low positive parenting indirectly predicted callous-unemotional behaviors at 10-12 via callous-unemotional behaviors at 42 months. Early fearlessness interacts with low positive parenting to predict early callous-unemotional behaviors, with lasting effects of this person-by-context interaction on callous-unemotional behaviors into late childhood. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  2. Early prediction of intensive care unit-acquired weakness using easily available parameters: a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieske, Luuk; Witteveen, Esther; Verhamme, Camiel; Dettling-Ihnenfeldt, Daniela S; van der Schaaf, Marike; Schultz, Marcus J; van Schaik, Ivo N; Horn, Janneke

    2014-01-01

    An early diagnosis of Intensive Care Unit-acquired weakness (ICU-AW) using muscle strength assessment is not possible in most critically ill patients. We hypothesized that development of ICU-AW can be predicted reliably two days after ICU admission, using patient characteristics, early available clinical parameters, laboratory results and use of medication as parameters. Newly admitted ICU patients mechanically ventilated ≥2 days were included in this prospective observational cohort study. Manual muscle strength was measured according to the Medical Research Council (MRC) scale, when patients were awake and attentive. ICU-AW was defined as an average MRC score prediction model was developed by selecting predictors from an a-priori defined set of candidate predictors, based on known risk factors. Discriminative performance of the prediction model was evaluated, validated internally and compared to the APACHE IV and SOFA score. Of 212 included patients, 103 developed ICU-AW. Highest lactate levels, treatment with any aminoglycoside in the first two days after admission and age were selected as predictors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the prediction model was 0.71 after internal validation. The new prediction model improved discrimination compared to the APACHE IV and the SOFA score. The new early prediction model for ICU-AW using a set of 3 easily available parameters has fair discriminative performance. This model needs external validation.

  3. Observational attachment theory-based parenting measures predict children's attachment narratives independently from social learning theory-based measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matias, Carla; O'Connor, Thomas G; Futh, Annabel; Scott, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    Conceptually and methodologically distinct models exist for assessing quality of parent-child relationships, but few studies contrast competing models or assess their overlap in predicting developmental outcomes. Using observational methodology, the current study examined the distinctiveness of attachment theory-based and social learning theory-based measures of parenting in predicting two key measures of child adjustment: security of attachment narratives and social acceptance in peer nominations. A total of 113 5-6-year-old children from ethnically diverse families participated. Parent-child relationships were rated using standard paradigms. Measures derived from attachment theory included sensitive responding and mutuality; measures derived from social learning theory included positive attending, directives, and criticism. Child outcomes were independently-rated attachment narrative representations and peer nominations. Results indicated that Attachment theory-based and Social Learning theory-based measures were modestly correlated; nonetheless, parent-child mutuality predicted secure child attachment narratives independently of social learning theory-based measures; in contrast, criticism predicted peer-nominated fighting independently of attachment theory-based measures. In young children, there is some evidence that attachment theory-based measures may be particularly predictive of attachment narratives; however, no single model of measuring parent-child relationships is likely to best predict multiple developmental outcomes. Assessment in research and applied settings may benefit from integration of different theoretical and methodological paradigms.

  4. Street Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. Shapiro

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available I write from Prague, where, unlike in most urban formations, the main city street plays an iconic role; it references a history of political protest. However, before elaborating on the protest iconography of the Prague street, Vaclavske nam, I want to locate the ways in which the design of urban space is actualized in everyday life in the cities of the world. Three functions stand out; the first involves dwelling, the second seeing, and the third moving. With respect to the first function – dwelling – the design partitions and coordinates residential, commercial and leisure functions. At times these are organized to segregate different classes (Robert Moses’ redesign of much of New York stands out with respect to the segregation function. With respect to the second function – seeing – the design of urban space is allegiance-inspiring; it involves sight lines that afford urban dwellers and visitors views of iconic buildings and statues, which reference key founding moments in the past and/or authoritative political functions in the present (Here, L’Enfants design for Washington DC stands out as exemplary. Its manifest intention was to make the buildings housing executive, legislative and judicial functions visible from many vantage points. Rarely are the streets themselves iconic. Their dominant role is involved with the effectuation of movement. As for this third function: As Lewis Mumford famously points out, streets were once part of an asterisk design, radiating out from an exemplary, often spiritual center...

  5. Political electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Price, Terence.

    1990-01-01

    This book is a non-technical exploration of the political and policy issues that have influenced the development of nuclear power. Part One describes the successes, failures, horse-trading, and infighting that make up nuclear power's history, taking nine counties as examples. Part Two reviews the main problems that now confront us, as seen in mid-June 1990; like all contemporary accounts, the book is unavoidably incomplete. However, by then it was possible to make provisional judgements about two very important recent influences: the political consequences of Chernobyl, and concerns about the greenhouse effect. The story that emerges is of a nuclear industry that has rarely been guilty of dereliction of duty, though it was undeniably complacent in not addressing sooner the causes of the public's entirely reasonable anxieties. The anti-nuclear lobby has been skilled in debate, and sometimes extraordinarily percipient; but less than fair in failing to acknowledge the industry's achievements and its willingness to learn from past mistakes. As for the politicians, the book contains many examples that show how the flames of controversy can be deliberately fanned when there are votes to be gained. The story has few heroes, but within the industry fewer villains than the public has been led to believe. (author)

  6. Comparison of the observed and predicted visual effects caused by power plant plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergstrom, Robert W.; Seigneur, Christian; Babson, Betsy L.; Holman, Hoi-Ying; Wojcik, Michael A.

    One of the objectives of the June-July and December 1979 E.P.A.-VISTTA field programs was to obtain the data necessary to evaluate the components of the EPA/SAI plume visibility model. The data were obtained through a coordinated set of measurements of specific power plant emissions, meteorological conditions, plume concentrations measured by an aircraft and through telephotometer measurements of the visual effects of the plume. This paper presents a comparison of measurements obtained between 4 and 32 km downwind from the plant with model predictions. The various components of the plume visibility model were evaluated independently and it was found that the greatest uncertainties in the model predictions are in the diffusion module, which has the limitations associated with all Gaussian diffusion models. The chemistry module describes plume chemistry well in a clean background atmosphere; however, the rate of NO-to-NO 2 conversion is slightly overpredicted in the model. Predicted secondary aerosol formation is negligible. The optics module of the visibility model was evaluated by predicting the optical effects of the plume on the basis of the airplane-measured plume concentrations. These calculations were compared with the ground-based telephotometer measurements. The optics module tends to slightly overestimate the plume visual effect; the average absolute relative errors in measurements of the plume/sky intensity ratio are 6.0, 6.4, 3.0 and 4.8% at 405, 450, 550 and 630 nm, respectively. For contrast values below - 0.06, the contrast predicted by the optics module is within a factor of 2 of the measured values. A major uncertainty in the data is found in the degree of alignment between the airplane and telephotometer measurements. The overall evaluation of the plume visibility model was carried out with 20 sets of measurements. It was found that the model tends to overestimate the visual effect of the plume. The average absolute relative errors in the plume

  7. Observed and predicted sensitivities of extreme surface ozone to meteorological drivers in three US cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fix, Miranda J.; Cooley, Daniel; Hodzic, Alma; Gilleland, Eric; Russell, Brook T.; Porter, William C.; Pfister, Gabriele G.

    2018-03-01

    We conduct a case study of observed and simulated maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) ozone (O3) in three US cities for summers during 1996-2005. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the ability of a high resolution atmospheric chemistry model to reproduce observed relationships between meteorology and high or extreme O3. We employ regional coupled chemistry-transport model simulations to make three types of comparisons between simulated and observational data, comparing (1) tails of the O3 response variable, (2) distributions of meteorological predictor variables, and (3) sensitivities of high and extreme O3 to meteorological predictors. This last comparison is made using two methods: quantile regression, for the 0.95 quantile of O3, and tail dependence optimization, which is used to investigate even higher O3 extremes. Across all three locations, we find substantial differences between simulations and observational data in both meteorology and meteorological sensitivities of high and extreme O3.

  8. Observed Emotional and Behavioral Indicators of Motivation Predict School Readiness in Head Start Graduates

    OpenAIRE

    Berhenke, Amanda; Miller, Alison L.; Brown, Eleanor; Seifer, Ronald; Dickstein, Susan

    2011-01-01

    Emotions and behaviors observed during challenging tasks are hypothesized to be valuable indicators of young children's motivation, the assessment of which may be particularly important for children at risk for school failure. The current study demonstrated reliability and concurrent validity of a new observational assessment of motivation in young children. Head Start graduates completed challenging puzzle and trivia tasks during their kindergarten year. Children's emotion expression and tas...

  9. Predictive validity of the classroom strategies scale-observer form on statewide testing scores: an initial investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Linda A; Fabiano, Gregory A; Dudek, Christopher M; Hsu, Louis

    2013-12-01

    The present study examined the validity of a teacher observation measure, the Classroom Strategies Scale--Observer Form (CSS), as a predictor of student performance on statewide tests of mathematics and English language arts. The CSS is a teacher practice observational measure that assesses evidence-based instructional and behavioral management practices in elementary school. A series of two-level hierarchical generalized linear models were fitted to data of a sample of 662 third- through fifth-grade students to assess whether CSS Part 2 Instructional Strategy and Behavioral Management Strategy scale discrepancy scores (i.e., ∑ |recommended frequency--frequency ratings|) predicted statewide mathematics and English language arts proficiency scores when percentage of minority students in schools was controlled. Results indicated that the Instructional Strategy scale discrepancy scores significantly predicted mathematics and English language arts proficiency scores: Relatively larger discrepancies on observer ratings of what teachers did versus what should have been done were associated with lower proficiency scores. Results offer initial evidence of the predictive validity of the CSS Part 2 Instructional Strategy discrepancy scores on student academic outcomes. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  10. Observed and predicted reproduction of Ceriodaphnia dubia exposed to chloride, sulfate, and bicarbonate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasier, Peter J.; Hardin, Ian R.

    2010-01-01

    Chronic toxicities of Cl-, SO42-, and HCO3- to Ceriodaphnia dubia were evaluated in low- and moderate-hardness waters using a three-brood reproduction test method. Toxicity tests of anion mixtures were used to determine interaction effects and to produce models predicting C. dubia reproduction. Effluents diluted with low- and moderate-hardness waters were tested with animals acclimated to low- and moderate-hardness conditions to evaluate the models and to assess the effects of hardness and acclimation. Sulfate was significantly less toxic than Cl- and HCO3- in both types of water. Chloride and HCO3- toxicities were similar in low-hardness water, but HCO3- was the most toxic in moderate-hardness water. Low acute-to-chronic ratios indicate that toxicities of these anions will decrease quickly with dilution. Hardness significantly reduced Cl- and SO42- toxicity but had little effect on HCO3-. Chloride toxicity decreased with an increase in Na+ concentration, and CO3- toxicity may have been reduced by the dissolved organic carbon in effluent. Multivariate models using measured anion concentrations in effluents with low to moderate hardness levels provided fairly accurate predictions of reproduction. Determinations of toxicity for several effluents differed significantly depending on the hardness of the dilution water and the hardness of the water used to culture test animals. These results can be used to predict the contribution of elevated anion concentrations to the chronic toxicity of effluents; to identify effluents that are toxic due to contaminants other than Cl-, SO42-, and HCO3-; and to provide a basis for chemical substitutions in manufacturing processes.

  11. Hydrological states and fluxes in terrestrial systems: from observation to prediction (John Dalton Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vereecken, Harry

    2016-04-01

    Quantification and prediction of hydrological processes requires information on the spatial and temporal distribution of soil water fluxes and soil water content. The access to spatially and temporally highly resolved soil water content and fluxes is needed to adequately test hydrological hypotheses and to validate hydrological models. In this presentation we will discuss new developments for the determination of soil water content and quantification and prediction of hydrological fluxes based on hydrogeophysical measurement techniques and novel ground- and satellite based sensing platforms. At the field scale, ground penetrating radar and passive microwave methods are presently being developed which provide the possibility to map soil water content with a high spatial and temporal resolution, also in the subsurface environment. Recent developments show that the application of full wave form inversion methods is a unique technique to derive soil water and soil hydraulic parameters from on- and off-ground systems with high spatial resolution. At the small catchment scale, wireless sensor networks are presently being developed providing soil moisture content values with a high spatial and temporal resolution. Stochastic theories have been used to interpret the relationship between average soil water content and its standard deviation. Cosmic ray sensors are presently being deployed within the TERENO observatories. These sensors provide soil moisture content values with a high temporal resolution at a scale of one to two hundred meters, thereby bridging the gap between local scale measurements and remote sensing platforms. Cosmic ray probes are extremely valuable for the determination of soil water content in agriculturally managed soils. Data assimilation methods provide a unique approach to fully exploit the value of spatially and temporally highly resolved soil water content measurements and states of the terrestrial system for the prediction of hydrological fluxes

  12. Reported and observed controlling feeding practices predict child eating behavior after 12 months.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergmeier, Heidi J; Skouteris, Helen; Haycraft, Emma; Haines, Jess; Hooley, Merrilyn

    2015-06-01

    Controlling feeding practices are linked to children's self-regulatory eating practices and weight status. Maternal reports of controlling feeding practices are not always significantly related to independently rated mealtime observations. However, prior studies only assessed 1 mealtime observation, which may not be representative of typical mealtime settings or routines. The first aim was to examine associations between reported and observed maternal pressure to eat and restriction feeding practices at baseline (T1) and after ∼ 12 mo (T2). The second aim was to evaluate relations between maternal and child factors [e.g., concern about child weight, child temperament, child body mass index (BMI)-for-age z scores (BMIz)] at T1 and reported and observed maternal pressure to eat and restriction feeding practices (T1 and T2). The third aim was to assess prospective associations between maternal feeding practices (T1) and child eating behaviors (T2) and child BMIz (T2). A sample of 79 mother-child dyads in Victoria, Australia, participated in 2 lunchtime home observations (T1 and T2). BMI measures were collected during the visits. Child temperament, child eating behaviors, maternal parenting styles, and maternal feeding practices were evaluated at T1 and T2 via questionnaires. Associations were assessed with Pearson's correlation coefficients, paired t tests, and hierarchical regressions. Reported restriction (T1) was inversely associated with observed restriction at T1 (r = -0.24, P < 0.05). Reported pressure to eat (T2) was associated with observed pressure to eat (T2) (r = 0.48, P < 0.01) but only for mothers of girls. Maternal weight concern was associated with reported restriction at T1 (r = 0.29, P < 0.01) and T2 (r = 0.36, P < 0.01), whereas observed restriction (T1) was prospectively associated child BMI at T2 (β = -0.18, P < 0.05). Maternal reports may not always reflect feeding practices performed during mealtimes; it is possible some mothers may not be

  13. Predicting Directly Measured Trunk and Upper Arm Postures in Paper Mill Work From Administrative Data, Workers' Ratings and Posture Observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heiden, Marina; Garza, Jennifer; Trask, Catherine; Mathiassen, Svend Erik

    2017-03-01

    A cost-efficient approach for assessing working postures could be to build statistical models for predicting results of direct measurements from cheaper data, and apply these models to samples in which only the latter data are available. The present study aimed to build and assess the performance of statistical models predicting inclinometer-assessed trunk and arm posture among paper mill workers. Separate models were built using administrative data, workers' ratings of their exposure, and observations of the work from video recordings as predictors. Trunk and upper arm postures were measured using inclinometry on 28 paper mill workers during three work shifts each. Simultaneously, the workers were video filmed, and their postures were assessed by observation of the videos afterwards. Workers' ratings of exposure, and administrative data on staff and production during the shifts were also collected. Linear mixed models were fitted for predicting inclinometer-assessed exposure variables (median trunk and upper arm angle, proportion of time with neutral trunk and upper arm posture, and frequency of periods in neutral trunk and upper arm inclination) from administrative data, workers' ratings, and observations, respectively. Performance was evaluated in terms of Akaike information criterion, proportion of variance explained (R2), and standard error (SE) of the model estimate. For models performing well, validity was assessed by bootstrap resampling. Models based on administrative data performed poorly (R2 ≤ 15%) and would not be useful for assessing posture in this population. Models using workers' ratings of exposure performed slightly better (8% ≤ R2 ≤ 27% for trunk posture; 14% ≤ R2 ≤ 36% for arm posture). The best model was obtained when using observational data for predicting frequency of periods with neutral arm inclination. It explained 56% of the variance in the postural exposure, and its SE was 5.6. Bootstrap validation of this model showed similar

  14. Design and Application of Offset-Free Model Predictive Control Disturbance Observation Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Model predictive control (MPC with its lower request to the mathematical model, excellent control performance, and convenience online calculation has developed into a very important subdiscipline with rich theory foundation and practical application. However, unmeasurable disturbance is widespread in industrial processes, which is difficult to deal with directly at present. In most of the implemented MPC strategies, the method of incorporating a constant output disturbance into the process model is introduced to solve this problem, but it fails to achieve offset-free control once the unmeasured disturbances access the process. Based on the Kalman filter theory, the problem is solved by using a more general disturbance model which is superior to the constant output disturbance model. This paper presents the necessary conditions for offset-free model predictive control based on the model. By applying disturbance model, the unmeasurable disturbance vectors are augmented as the states of control system, and the Kalman filer is used to estimate unmeasurable disturbance and its effect on the output. Then, the dynamic matrix control (DMC algorithm is improved by utilizing the feed-forward compensation control strategy with the disturbance estimated.

  15. Perceived Medical School stress of undergraduate medical students predicts academic performance: an observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kötter, Thomas; Wagner, Josefin; Brüheim, Linda; Voltmer, Edgar

    2017-12-16

    Medical students are exposed to high amounts of stress. Stress and poor academic performance can become part of a vicious circle. In order to counteract this circularity, it seems important to better understand the relationship between stress and performance during medical education. The most widespread stress questionnaire designed for use in Medical School is the "Perceived Medical School Stress Instrument" (PMSS). It addresses a wide range of stressors, including workload, competition, social isolation and financial worries. Our aim was to examine the relation between the perceived Medical School stress of undergraduate medical students and academic performance. We measured Medical School stress using the PMSS at two different time points (at the end of freshman year and at the end of sophomore year) and matched stress scores together with age and gender to the first medical examination (M1) grade of the students (n = 456). PMSS scores from 2 and 14 months before M1 proved to be significant predictors for medical students' M1 grade. Age and gender also predict academic performance, making older female students with high stress scores a potential risk group for entering the vicious circle of stress and poor academic performance. PMSS sum scores 2 and 14 months before the M1 exam seem to have an independent predictive validity for medical students' M1 grade. More research is needed to identify potential confounders.

  16. Underground Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galis, Vasilis; Summerton, Jane

    of various kinds, as well as for identifying and displacing undesired individuals/groups/bodies. A case in point is a recently-established police project (REVA) in Sweden for strengthening the so-called internal border control. Specifically, several underground stations in Stockholm now have checkpoints......Public spaces are often contested sites involving the political use of sociomaterial arrangements to check, control and filter the flow of people (see Virilio 1977, 1996). Such arrangements can include configurations of state-of-the-art policing technologies for delineating and demarcating borders...... status updates on identity checks at the metro stations in Stockholm and reports on locations and time of ticket controls for warning travelers. Thus the attempts by authorities to exert control over the (spatial) arena of the underground is circumvented by the effective developing of an alternative...

  17. Human Dorsal Striatum Encodes Prediction Errors during Observational Learning of Instrumental Actions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Jeffrey C.; Dunne, Simon; Furey, Teresa; O'Doherty, John P.

    2012-01-01

    The dorsal striatum plays a key role in the learning and expression of instrumental reward associations that are acquired through direct experience. However, not all learning about instrumental actions require direct experience. Instead, humans and other animals are also capable of acquiring instrumental actions by observing the experiences of…

  18. Predicting Kindergarteners' Achievement and Motivation from Observational Measures of Teaching Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantzicopoulos, Panayota; Patrick, Helen; Strati, Anna; Watson, Jesse S.

    2018-01-01

    We investigated the premise that observation measures of instruction are indicators of effective teaching, using the definition of effectiveness articulated by departments of education: teaching that boosts student achievement. We argued that student motivation is equally as important as achievement in the evaluation of teaching effectiveness…

  19. Oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios in tree rings: how well do models predict observed values?

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Waterhouse, JS

    2002-07-30

    Full Text Available Annual oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios in the alpha-cellulose of the latewood of oak (Quercus robur L.) growing on well-drained ground in Norfolk, UK have been measured. The authors have compared the observed values of isotope ratios with those...

  20. External Validation of Risk Prediction Scores for Invasive Candidiasis in a Medical/Surgical Intensive Care Unit: An Observational Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Armin; Baronia, Arvind Kumar; Azim, Afzal; Marak, Rungmei S K; Yadav, Reema; Sharma, Preeti; Gurjar, Mohan; Poddar, Banani; Singh, Ratender Kumar

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study was to conduct external validation of risk prediction scores for invasive candidiasis. We conducted a prospective observational study in a 12-bedded adult medical/surgical Intensive Care Unit (ICU) to evaluate Candida score >3, colonization index (CI) >0.5, corrected CI >0.4 (CCI), and Ostrosky's clinical prediction rule (CPR). Patients' characteristics and risk factors for invasive candidiasis were noted. Patients were divided into two groups; invasive candidiasis and no-invasive candidiasis. Of 198 patients, 17 developed invasive candidiasis. Discriminatory power (area under receiver operator curve [AUROC]) for Candida score, CI, CCI, and CPR were 0.66, 0.67, 0.63, and 0.62, respectively. A large number of patients in the no-invasive candidiasis group (114 out of 181) were exposed to antifungal agents during their stay in ICU. Subgroup analysis was carried out after excluding such patients from no-invasive candidiasis group. AUROC of Candida score, CI, CCI, and CPR were 0.7, 0.7, 0.65, and 0.72, respectively, and positive predictive values (PPVs) were in the range of 25%-47%, along with negative predictive values (NPVs) in the range of 84%-96% in the subgroup analysis. Currently available risk prediction scores have good NPV but poor PPV. They are useful for selecting patients who are not likely to benefit from antifungal therapy.

  1. The potential utility of urinary biomarkers for risk prediction in combat casualties: a prospective observational cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Stewart, Ian J.; Glass, Kristen R.; Howard, Jeffrey T.; Morrow, Benjamin D.; Sosnov, Jonathan A.; Siew, Edward D.; Wickersham, Nancy; Latack, Wayne; Kwan, Hana K.; Heegard, Kelly D.; Diaz, Christina; Henderson, Aaron T.; Saenz, Kristin K.; Ikizler, T. Alp; Chung, Kevin K.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Traditional risk scoring prediction models for trauma use either anatomically based estimations of injury or presenting vital signs. Markers of organ dysfunction may provide additional prognostic capability to these models. The objective of this study was to evaluate if urinary biomarkers are associated with poor outcomes, including death and the need for renal replacement therapy. Methods We conducted a prospective, observational study in United States Military personnel with tr...

  2. Some Aspects of Verbal Politeness in Maghrebi Arabic Dialects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca D'Anna

    2014-12-01

    Positive politeness, on the other hand, seems to be frequently employed, without the occurrence of any FTA, in standardised and predictable ways, thus questioning Brown and Levinson’s theory to a certain extent. The two scholars, in facts, considered the necessity to redress a FTA as the primary reason for the existence of verbal politeness, leaving all the phenomena that contradicted this tenet to the vague domain of the speakers’ spontaneous verbal inventiveness. The expressions observed in Maghrebi dialects, on the contrary, are not spontaneous, but part of the competence of all mature native speakers, who are usually expected to perform them. This independent existence of verbal politeness, thus, represents one of the most interesting features of Maghrebi Arabic dialects and a field that still calls for further research and investigation.

  3. Examination of observed and predicted measures of creep cavitation damage accumulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brear, J.M.; Church, J.M. [ERA Technology Ltd., Leatherhead (United Kingdom); Eggeler, G. [University of Bochum-Ruhr (Germany)

    1998-12-31

    Brittle intergranular cavitation represents a primary degradation mechanism for high temperature plant operating within the creep range. Fundamental to formulating estimates of remanent life, or consumed life fraction for such components are: the observation and quantification of the level of actual creep cavitation, typically using an A-parameter type approach, and the correlation of observed creep damage accumulation with some phenomenological model which characterizes the rate of damage evolution and, thereby, rupture lifetime. The work described here treats inhomogeneous damage accumulation - in otherwise uniform material and loading situations. Extensions to the A-parameter are considered as a practical measure of damage localization and an extension of the Kachanov-Rabotnov continuum damage mechanics model is proposed to allow theoretical treatment. (orig.) 4 refs.

  4. Improving the Gap between Model Predictions and Observations of Formaldehyde over the Remote Marine Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trueblood, J.; Meskhidze, N.

    2013-05-01

    Formaldehyde (HCHO) is a ubiquitous oxidation product that exists in polluted rural and urban areas, as well as remote background sites where it is an important photochemical intermediate. HCHO levels of up to six times above what is typically predicted by photochemical models have been reported over the Marine Boundary Layer (MBL). As proposed mechanisms for HCHO production remain to be insufficient to explain such large discrepancies between model predictions and measured values, the role of marine regions in the creation of HCHO continues to be one of the largest sources of uncertainty in current global chemistry-transport models. Here we examine the viability of a proposed mechanism for the photochemical production of formaldehyde involving aerosols enriched with biologically produced organic matter. In this study, the phytoplankton Emiliania Huxleyi was incubated in autoclaved seawater contained within a 9 liter Pyrex glass bottle. Quantitative analysis of the enrichment of transparent exopolymer particles (TEP) and other biologically produced organic matter (dissolved and particulate) in the surface microlayer was carried out by employing Alldredge's alcian blue staining technique. To produce organic aerosols, enriched seawater was bubbled with hydrocarbon free air using a sintered glass filter placed 5 cm below the surface. Utilizing a mixed flow reaction scheme, produced aerosols were then pushed through stainless steel flow tubes into a separate 9-liter Pyrex glass container acting as a residence chamber. The container was surrounded with six Ushio 9W Midrange UVB lights to allow for the irradiation of aerosols at 306 nm. A flow rate of approximately 0.1 l/min allowed for an average aerosol residence time of 90 minutes inside the residence chamber. All air from the chamber was then passed through a 5" long Pyrex desorber tube packed with 60/80 Tenax that had been soaked in the derivatizing agent pentafluorophenyl hydrazine (PFPH). Subsequent thermal

  5. The institutional design, politics, and effects of a bioregional approach: observations and lessons from 11 case studies of river basin organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sander Meijerink

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available One of the prescriptions for adaptive comanagement of social-ecological systems is to follow a bioregional approach. In water resources management, experience has been gained with a bioregional approach by the foundation of river basin organizations (RBOs. Here, we summarize the results of a research project involving 27 colleagues who have undertaken an analysis of the global discussion on RBOs and the foundation of RBOs in Canada, USA, Great Britain, Germany, Portugal, South Africa, Ukraine, Afghanistan, Mongolia, Thailand, and Australia. Drawing on Ostrom's institutional analysis and development framework, we first present a fine-grained analysis of the institutional architecture of these RBOs, which enables us to distinguish between autonomous, coordinating, partnership, and agency type RBOs. Second, we unravel the main controversies over this architecture by focusing on the key actors involved in either promoting or hindering RBO formation, globally and at the national level. Third, we summarize how the performance of RBOs can be evaluated in terms of coordination, accountability, legitimacy, and environmental effectiveness. Finally, we discuss the relationship between institutional design and performance. The main findings are: (1 the foundation of RBOs is not a neutral process but rather a highly political one, (2 the foundation of RBOs creates complex accountability relationships, and (3 institutional interplay, the capacity to generate financial resources, and a minimum degree of institutional stability are crucial to the successes of RBOs in realizing coordination and environmental effectiveness.

  6. Real-Time Prediction of Observed Action Requires Integrity of the Dorsal Premotor Cortex: Evidence From Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brich, Louisa F M; Bächle, Christine; Hermsdörfer, Joachim; Stadler, Waltraud

    2018-01-01

    Studying brain mechanisms underlying the prediction of observed action, the dorsal premotor cortex (PMd) has been suggested a key area. The present study probed this notion using repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) to test whether interference in this area would affect the accuracy in predicting the time course of object directed actions performed with the right hand. Young and healthy participants observed actions in short videos. These were briefly occluded from view for 600 ms and resumed immediately afterwards. The task was to continue the action mentally and to indicate after each occlusion, whether the action was resumed at the right moment (condition in-time) or shifted. In a first run, single-pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation (sTMS) was delivered over the left primary hand-area during occlusion. In the second run, rTMS over the left PMd was applied during occlusion in half of the participants [experimental group (EG)]. The control group (CG) received sham-rTMS over the same area. Under rTMS, the EG predicted less trials correctly than in the sTMS run. Sham-rTMS in the CG had no effects on prediction. The interference in PMd interacted with the type of manipulation applied to the action's time course occasionally during occlusion. The performance decrease of the EG was most pronounced in conditions in which the continuations after occlusions were too late in the action's course. The present results extend earlier findings suggesting that real-time action prediction requires the integrity of the PMd. Different functional roles of this area are discussed. Alternative interpretations consider either simulation of specific motor programming functions or the involvement of a feature-unspecific predictor.

  7. Real-Time Prediction of Observed Action Requires Integrity of the Dorsal Premotor Cortex: Evidence From Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louisa F. M. Brich

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Studying brain mechanisms underlying the prediction of observed action, the dorsal premotor cortex (PMd has been suggested a key area. The present study probed this notion using repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS to test whether interference in this area would affect the accuracy in predicting the time course of object directed actions performed with the right hand. Young and healthy participants observed actions in short videos. These were briefly occluded from view for 600 ms and resumed immediately afterwards. The task was to continue the action mentally and to indicate after each occlusion, whether the action was resumed at the right moment (condition in-time or shifted. In a first run, single-pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation (sTMS was delivered over the left primary hand-area during occlusion. In the second run, rTMS over the left PMd was applied during occlusion in half of the participants [experimental group (EG]. The control group (CG received sham-rTMS over the same area. Under rTMS, the EG predicted less trials correctly than in the sTMS run. Sham-rTMS in the CG had no effects on prediction. The interference in PMd interacted with the type of manipulation applied to the action’s time course occasionally during occlusion. The performance decrease of the EG was most pronounced in conditions in which the continuations after occlusions were too late in the action’s course. The present results extend earlier findings suggesting that real-time action prediction requires the integrity of the PMd. Different functional roles of this area are discussed. Alternative interpretations consider either simulation of specific motor programming functions or the involvement of a feature-unspecific predictor.

  8. Prediction of Wound Healing in Diabetic Foot Ulcers: an Observational Study in Tertiary Hospital in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pradana Soewondo

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim: to evaluate the role of clinical characteristics, functional markers of vasodilation, inflammatory response, and atherosclerosis in predicting wound healing in diabetic foot ulcer. Methods: a cohort study (February – October 2010 was conducted from 40 subjects with acute diabetic foot ulcer at clinical ward of Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo National Central General Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia. Each subject underwent at least two variable measurements, i.e. during inflammatory phase and proliferation phase. The studied variables were clinical characteristics, complete peripheral blood count (CBC and differential count, levels of HbA1c, ureum, creatinine, lipid profile, fasting blood glucose (FBG, marker of endothelial dysfunction (asymmetric dimethylarginine/ADMA, endothelin-1/ET-1, and flow-mediated dilation/FMD of brachial artery, and marker of vascular calcification (osteoprotegerin/OPG. Results: median of time achieving 50% granulation tissue in our study was 21 days. There were nine factors that contribute in the development of 50% granulation tissue, i.e. family history of diabetes mellitus (DM, previous history of wound, wound area, duration of existing wound, captopril and simvastatin medications, levels of ADMA, ET-1, and OPG. There were three out of the nine factors that significantly correlated with wound healing, i.e. wound area, OPG levels, and simvastatin medications. Conclusion: in acute diabetic foot ulcers, wound area and OPG levels had positive correlation with wound healing, whereas simvastatin medications had negative correlation with wound healing.

  9. Political Dynamics Affected by Turncoats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Salvo, Rosa; Gorgone, Matteo; Oliveri, Francesco

    2017-11-01

    An operatorial theoretical model based on raising and lowering fermionic operators for the description of the dynamics of a political system consisting of macro-groups affected by turncoat-like behaviors is presented. The analysis of the party system dynamics is carried on by combining the action of a suitable quadratic Hamiltonian operator with specific rules (depending on the variations of the mean values of the observables) able to adjust periodically the conservative model to the political environment.

  10. Prediction of SEP Peak Proton Intensity Based on CME Speed, Direction and Observations of Associated Solar Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, I. G.; Mays, M. L.; Thompson, B. J.; Kwon, R.; Frechette, B. P.

    2017-12-01

    We assess whether a formula obtained by Richardson et al. (Solar Phys., 289, 3059, 2014; DOI 10.1007/s11207-014-0524-8) relating the intensity of 14-24 MeV protons in a solar energetic particle event at 1 AU to the solar event location and the speed of the associated coronal mass ejection (CME), may be used to "predict" the intensity of a solar energetic particle event. Starting with a subset of several hundred CMEs in the CCMC/SWRC DONKI real-time database (http://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/) selected without consideration of whether they were associated with SEP events, we first use the CME speed and direction to predict the proton intensity at Earth or the STEREO spacecraft using this formula. Since most of these CMEs were not in fact associated with SEP events, many "false alarms" result. We then examine whether considering other phenomena which may accompany the CMEs, such as the X-ray flare intensity and the properties of type II and type III radio emissions, may help to reduce the false alarm rate. We also use CME parameters calculated from an ellipsoidal shell fit to multi-spacecraft CME shock observations for a smaller number of events to predict the SEP intensity. We calculate skill scores for each case and assess whether the Richardson et al. (2014) formula, using additional observations to reduce the false alarm rate, has any potential as a SEP prediction tool, assuming that the required observations could be acquired sufficiently rapidly following the onset of the related solar event/CME.

  11. The Challenge of Fully-Predictive Hydrologic Models Supported by Observations: Recent Experiences and Prospects in Semiarid Systems (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vivoni, E. R.

    2010-12-01

    After several decades of development and applications, distributed watershed models are now common tools in hydrologic research and increasingly used in practice. Unfortunately, the sophistication of these tools has not been accompanied by comparable levels of observational data collection. Ultimately, predictions from distributed watershed models need to be verified to build confidence in their ability to simulate the past and subsequently the future, under changing conditions. This talk will describe our efforts to develop, apply and test a distributed watershed model for semiarid regions in the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. We will provide examples from forested mountain, semiarid desert and subtropical shrubland systems which all have marked seasonality due to the North American monsoon. Our previous efforts include comparisons to eddy covariance data, distributed soil moisture patterns and runoff observations, among others. After building model confidence, we explore the underlying patterns, processes and mechanisms in the distributed simulations to identify emergent behavior. The intent of this synthesis stage is to infer generalizable features of the hydrologic system that may help explain the observed data and build predictive capacity for other settings. We also discuss prospects for improved joint use of distributed watershed models and distributed observations from ground, aerial and satellite platforms.

  12. Differential genetic susceptibility to child risk at birth in predicting observed maternal behavior.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keren Fortuna

    Full Text Available This study examined parenting as a function of child medical risks at birth and parental genotype (dopamine D4 receptor; DRD4. Our hypothesis was that the relation between child risks and later maternal sensitivity would depend on the presence/absence of a genetic variant in the mothers, thus revealing a gene by environment interaction (GXE. Risk at birth was defined by combining risk indices of children's gestational age at birth, birth weight, and admission to the neonatal intensive care unit. The DRD4-III 7-repeat allele was chosen as a relevant genotype as it was recently shown to moderate the effect of environmental stress on parental sensitivity. Mothers of 104 twin pairs provided DNA samples and were observed with their children in a laboratory play session when the children were 3.5 years old. Results indicate that higher levels of risk at birth were associated with less sensitive parenting only among mothers carrying the 7-repeat allele, but not among mothers carrying shorter alleles. Moreover, mothers who are carriers of the 7-repeat allele and whose children scored low on the risk index were observed to have the highest levels of sensitivity. These findings provide evidence for the interactive effects of genes and environment (in this study, children born at higher risk on parenting, and are consistent with a genetic differential susceptibility model of parenting by demonstrating that some parents are inherently more susceptible to environmental influences, both good and bad, than are others.

  13. Political Crowdfunding as concept of political technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeria GOLKA

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Political crowdfunding is analyzed as a new concept of political science. The justification of use of crowdfunding technologies not only in business but also in the political sphere is argued. The efficiency, availability, low cost of the new forms of political investment through the development of information and communication technologies are noted. The typology of political crowdfunding is proposed. Political projects promoting domestic crowdfunding platforms are analyzed. Attention is drawn to the problem of legal gaps in the regulation of crowdfunding is studied. The foreign experience of organizing public support (mikroinvestment political projects. It is emphasized that in terms of political theory crowdfunding is based on solidarity. The crowdfunding properties of transforming social capital accumulated by social networks into financial capital are mentioned.

  14. Politeness: West and East

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    - Джеффри Лич

    2014-12-01

    phenomena in communication. The following hypothesis will be put forward, and supported by limited evidence: that the GSP provides a very general explanation for communicative politeness phenomena in Western languages such as English, Eastern languages such as Chinese, Japanese and Korean, and Slavonic languages such as Russian as well with a few examples from other languages. This is not to deny the importance of quantitative and qualitative differences in the settings of social parameters and linguistic parameters of linguistic politeness in such languages. A framework such as the GSP provides the parameters of variation within which such differences can be studied. We do not imply that ethnic cultures are homogeneous and unchanging entities, and do not disregard the fact that generalizations about any culture can be dangerous as things may be different in different sub-cultures or discourse systems within the same ethnic culture. Therefore we are speaking here in very general terms, as we believe that there is a common core which distinguishes one communicative culture from another. Further still there are some general characteristics of behaviour which can be observed in different cultures (1. Hence this article argues that, despite differences, each of the languages and cultures discussed herein constitute a more or less unified system in terms of politeness norms and strategies, and that the GSP can be used as a tertium comparationis to study politeness phenomenon across languages and cultures.

  15. An Observational Approach toward Understanding and Prediction of CME Magnetic Ejecta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzo, V. J.; de Koning, C. A.; Riley, P.

    2017-12-01

    Quantitative knowledge of the magnetic field inside a coronal mass ejection (CME) is an important contributor to an actionable space weather forecast of geomagnetic storms. However, at present it is not possible to predict the magnetic cloud component of a CME with any accuracy. This has led to the development of increasingly sophisticated physics-based models, each promising a path toward more accurate space weather forecasts. Unfortunately, none of these models can provide meaningful output if they lack for reliable quantitative input. Until we can measure magnetic fields at solar distances where CMEs are launched and over their early-stage evolution, this will remain a fundamental obstacle to successful modeling. Instead of continuing to focus primarily on the modeling approach, we suggest an active investigation of direct, up-stream measurement of the CME internal magnetic field. For current forecasting purposes, or even as a science concept mission, the measurements do not need to be of high accuracy or high cadence. Since previous magnetic cloud analyses have demonstrated that a single spacecraft provides insufficient data to robustly reconstruct the CME internal magnetic field, we suggest deploying a swarm of cube-sats in "quasi-satellite" orbits that are known to be horizontally and vertically stable, even at large (several tenths of an AU) distances from Earth. In this presentation, we describe how simulations of CMEs incorporating magnetic clouds can be used to develop and support this mission concept. By taking simulated cuts through model CMEs with a range of magnetic morphologies and field strengths, we aim to determine the minimum number of spacecraft needed for such a mission and their optimum orbital characteristics. Although a host of challenges remain, especially related to communications and cube-sat telemetry in interplanetary space, we believe that these technological issues can be surmounted once it has been demonstrated that a major leap in

  16. Evaporation suppression from water reservoirs using floating covers: Lab scale observations and model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Or, D.; Lehmann, P.; Aminzadeh, M.; Sommer, M.; Wey, H.; Wunderli, H.; Breitenstein, D.

    2016-12-01

    The competition over dwindling fresh water resources is expected to intensify with projected increase in human population in arid regions, expansion of irrigated land and changes in climate and drought patterns. The volume of water stored in reservoirs would also increase to mitigate seasonal shortages due to rainfall variability and to meet irrigation water needs. By some estimates up to half of the stored water is lost to evaporation thereby exacerbating the water scarcity problem. Recently, there is an upsurge in the use of self-assembling floating covers to suppress evaporation, yet the design, and implementation remain largely empirical. Studies have shown that evaporation suppression is highly nonlinear, as also known from a century of research on gas exchange from plant leaves (that often evaporate as free water surfaces through stomata that are only 1% of leaf area). We report a systematic evaluation of different cover types and external drivers (radiation, wind, wind+radiation) on evaporation suppression and energy balance of a 1.4 m2 basin placed in a wind-tunnel. Surprisingly, evaporation suppression by black and white floating covers (balls and plates) were similar despite significantly different energy balance regimes over the cover surfaces. Moreover, the evaporation suppression efficiency was a simple function of the uncovered area (square root of the uncovered fraction) with linear relations with the covered area in some cases. The thermally decoupled floating covers offer an efficient solution to the evaporation suppression with limited influence of the surface energy balance (water temperature for black and white covers was similar and remained nearly constant). The results will be linked with a predictive evaporation-energy balance model and issues of spatial scales and long exposure times will be studied.

  17. Improving biomass burning pollution predictions in Singapore using AERONET and Lidar observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardacre, Catherine; Chew, Boon Ning; Gan, Christopher; Burgin, Laura; Hort, Matthew; Lee, Shao Yi; Shaw, Felicia; Witham, Claire

    2016-04-01

    Every year millions of people are affected by poor air quality from trans-boundary smoke haze emitted from large scale biomass burning in Asia. These fires are a particular problem in the Indonesian regions of Sumatra and Kalimantan where peat fires, lit to clear land for oil palm plantations and agriculture, typically result in high levels of particulate matter (PM) emissions. In June 2013 and from August-October 2015 the combination of widespread burning, meteorological and climatological conditions resulted in severe air pollution throughout Southeast Asia. The Met Office of the United Kingdom (UKMO) and the Hazard and Risk Impact Assessment Unit of the Meteorological Service of Singapore (MSS) have developed a quantitative haze forecast to provide a reliable, routine warning of haze events in the Singapore region. The forecast system uses the UKMO's Lagrangian particle dispersion model NAME (Numerical Atmosphere-dispersion Modelling Environment) in combination with high resolution, satellite based emission data from the Global Fire Emissions System (GFAS). The buoyancy of biomass burning smoke and it's rise through the atmosphere has a large impact on the amount of air pollution at the Earth's surface. This is important in Singapore, which is affected by pollution that has travelled long distances and that will have a vertical distribution influenced by meteorology. The vertical distribution of atmospheric aerosol can be observed by Lidar which provides information about haze plume structure. NAME output from two severe haze periods that occurred in June 2013 and from August-October 2015 was compared with observations of total column aerosol optical depth (AOD) from AERONET stations in Singapore and the surrounding region, as well as vertically resolved Lidar data from a station maintained by MSS and from MPLNET. Comparing total column and vertically resolved AOD observations with NAME output indicates that the model underestimates PM concentrations throughout

  18. Political Awakenings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Franziska Brühwiler

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Le Complot contre l’Amérique de Philip Roth décrit l’initiation politique de ses deux protagonistes, le narrateur Philip et son frère aîné, Sanford. Tandis que ce dernier passe par un processus initiatique quasi classique — il se déroule conformément au schéma tripartite de van Gennep — l’apogée de l’initiation de Philip est marquée par douleur et blessure. Toutefois, tous les deux connaissent seulement une initiation partielle, car le premier doit d’abord admettre ses erreurs tandis que le second va devoir apprendre, non seulement à remettre en cause l’autorité, mais également à développer ses idées de façon indépendante.Philip Roth’s The Plot Against America traces the political awakening of its two child protagonists, the narrator Philip and his elder brother Sanford. While the latter undergoes an initiation process nearly in accordance with the classical tripartite scheme as coined by van Gennep, the height of Philip’s initiation process is marked by physical pain and injury. However, both experience only a partial initiation, since the elder brother will have to recognize his errors and the younger one will first have to learn how to go beyond the mere questioning of authority.

  19. Hidden consequences of political efficacy: Testing an efficacy-apathy model of political mobilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osborne, Danny; Yogeeswaran, Kumar; Sibley, Chris G

    2015-10-01

    Political efficacy-the belief that one can influence politics-is a key predictor of people's involvement in social movements. Political institutions that are open to change should, however, be seen as just. Thus, political efficacy may ironically undermine minority group members' support for collective action by simultaneously increasing their belief in the fairness of the system. The current study aims to examine this possibility in a national sample of Māori-New Zealand's indigenous minority population. Participants (N = 399) were Māori (Mage = 44.22; SD = 13.30) women (n = 272) and men (n = 115; unreported = 12) who completed a survey assessing their levels of (a) political efficacy, (b) system justification, and (c) support for the political mobilization of their group, as well as relevant demographic covariates. Consistent with past research, political efficacy had a positive direct effect on participants' support for the political mobilization of Māori. Nevertheless, political efficacy also had a negative indirect effect on political mobilization support via increases in system justification. These results held after controlling for participants' ethnic identification, self-efficacy, and conservatism. Our findings uncover a hidden consequence of political efficacy and show that, while believing that the political system is receptive to change predicts political mobilization, it can also undermine minorities' support for the mobilization of their group. Thus, our results uncover a previously unknown process that maintains inequality between ethnic minority and majority group members. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  20. Effects of Political Knowledge on Political Tolerance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, John Powell

    2018-01-01

    Sexual orientation continues to be an explosive issue in American classrooms. Increasing the political knowledge of students can reduce the volatility of this explosive issue by increasing tolerance toward the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender community. This relationship between political knowledge and political tolerance has been…

  1. Political Correctness and American Academe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drucker, Peter F.

    1994-01-01

    Argues that today's political correctness atmosphere is a throwback to attempts made by the Nazis and Stalinists to force society into conformity. Academia, it is claimed, is being forced to conform to gain control of the institution of higher education. It is predicted that this effort will fail. (GR)

  2. About green political parties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orlović Slobodan P.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work the author refers to some legal and political questions in connection with green political parties. Those questions cover: the ideology of green political parties, their number and influence, both in general and in Serbia. The first part of work is generally speaking about political parties - their definition, ideology, role and action. Main thesis in this work is that green political parties, by their appearance, were something new on the political scene. But quickly, because of objective and subjective reasons, they were changing original ideas and were beginning to resemble to all other political parties. In this way, they lost their vanguard and political alternativeness.

  3. Oxidative Capacity Predicted Using Photochemical Age Approximation from SAMBBA Airborne Observations in the Amazon Rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    dos Santos, F. C.; Longo, K.; Guenther, A. B.; Freitas, S. R.; Moreira, D. S.; Flávio, L.; Braz, R.; Oram, D.; Lee, J. D.; Bauguitte, S.

    2016-12-01

    Emitted by vegetation, isoprene (2-methyl-1,3-butadiene) is the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbons, with an annual global emission calculated ranging from 440 to 660Tg carbon, depending on the driving variables like temperature, solar radiation, leaf area index and plant functional type. It is estimated, for example, that the natural compounds like isoprene and terpenes present in the troposphere are about 90% and 50%, respectively, removed from the atmosphere by oxidation performed by hydroxyl radical (OH). Furthermore, the oxidation products of isoprene may contribute to secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation, affecting the climate and altering the properties and lifetimes of clouds. Considering the importance of these emissions and the hydroxyl radical reaction in the atmosphere, the SAMBBA (South American Biomass Burning Analysis) experiment, which occurred during the dry season (September 2012) in the Amazon Rainforest, provided information about the chemical composition of the atmosphere through airborne observations. Although primarily focused on biomass burning flights, the SAMBBA project carried out other flights providing indirect oxidative capacity data in different environments: natural emission dominated flights and biomass-burning flights with fresh plumes and aged plumes. In this study, we evaluate the oxidative capacity of the Amazon rainforest in different environments, both for the unpolluted and biomass-burning disturbed atmosphere using the ratio [MVK + MACR]/[Isoprene]. Beyond that, we propose an improvement on the formulation of indirect OH density calculation, using the photochemical aging [O3]/[CO] as a parameter. During the day (11am-8pm - local time), the [OH] values for natural emission flights (8.1 x 106 molecules/cm3) and biomass-burning (9.4 x 106 molecules/cm3) are comparable with GABRIEL-2015 field campaign along Guyanas tropical rainforest and suggest that biomass-burning increase the oxidative capacity around 18% in average

  4. Lower thermosphere coupling study: Comparison of observations with predictions of the University College London-Sheffield thermosphere-ionosphere model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuller-Rowell, T.J.; Rees, D.; Parish, H.F.; Virdi, T.S.; Williams, P.J.S.; Johnson, R.M.

    1991-01-01

    During the first Lower Thermosphere Coupling Study (LTCS), September 21-25 1987, data were recorded from the incoherent scatter radar sites at EISCAT, Millstone Hill, Sondrestrom, and Arecibo. These experimental facilities measured ionospheric parameters (Ne, Te, Ti, and plasma velocity) in the E and the F regions which have been used to determine the E region neutral wind and infer the neutral temperature in the height range 100-150 km. Propagating tides are clearly visible in some of the parameters, and the latitude structure and phase variations with height indicate the presence of at least the (2,2) and (2,4) global tidal Hough modes. The influence of geomagnetic forcing is also clearly present at high latitudes. The University College London-Sheffield University three-dimensional coupled thermosphere-ionosphere model has been used to simulate this period of observation, by imposing tidal forcing at the lower boundary and magnetospheric forcing at high latitudes, in an attempt to interpret and understand the experimental data. Model simulations are able to predict where the signature of a particular tidal mode is likely to be observed in the respective responses of the temperature and wind structure. The numerical simulations predict the range of observed tidal amplitudes at mid and high latitudes, provided the tidal forcing functions imposed near the lower boundary of the model are larger (400 m geopotential height variation) than those inferred from linear tidal models

  5. Poor nutritional status on admission predicts poor outcomes after stroke: observational data from the FOOD trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-06-01

    Previous studies suggest that undernourished patients with acute stroke do badly. The data, however, are not robust. We aimed to reliably assess the importance of baseline nutritional status as an independent predictor of long-term outcome after stroke in a large prospective cohort enrolled in the Feed Or Ordinary Diet (FOOD) trial, a multicenter randomized trial evaluating various feeding policies. Patients admitted to hospital with a recent stroke were enrolled in the FOOD trial. Data on nutritional status and other clinical predictors of outcome were collected at trial entry. At 6 months, the coordinating center collected data on survival and functional status (modified Rankin Scale). Outcome assessment was done by researchers blinded to baseline assessments and treatment allocation. Between November 1996 and November 2001, 3012 patients were enrolled, and 2955 (98%) were followed up. Of the 275 undernourished patients, 102 (37%) were dead by final follow-up compared with only 445 (20%) of 2194 patients of normal nutritional status (odds ratio [OR], 2.32; 95% CI, 1.78 to 3.02). After adjustment for age, prestroke functional state, and stroke severity, this relationship, although weakened, still held (OR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.34 to 2.47). Undernourished patients were more likely to develop pneumonia, other infections, and gastrointestinal bleeding during their hospital admission than other patients. These data provide reliable evidence that nutritional status early after stroke is independently associated with long-term outcome. It supports the rationale for the FOOD trial, which continues to recruit and aims to estimate the effect of different feeding regimes on outcome after stroke and thus determine whether the association observed in this study is likely to be causal.

  6. Strategic political postures and political market orientation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ormrod, Robert P.; Henneberg, Stephan C.

    2010-01-01

    Recently, the areas of strategic political marketing and political market orientation have been the subject of several conceptual articles which have provided the theoretical foundations for further empirical work. However, despite the close conceptual relatedness of the proposed concepts...... by developing an integrated concept of political marketing strategy using two complementary frameworks, namely Strategic Political Postures (SPP) and Political Market Orientation (PMO). We introduce the two main concepts and derive for each of the strategic posture-specific PMO profiles as well as inter...

  7. Development of Lightning Observation Network in the Western Pacific Region for the Intensity Prediction of Severe Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, M.; Takahashi, Y.; Yamashita, K.; Kubota, H.; Hamada, J. I.; Momota, E.; Marciano, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    Lightning activity represents the thunderstorm activity, that is, the precipitation and/or updraft intensity and area. Thunderstorm activity is also an important parameter in terms of the energy inputs from the ocean to the atmosphere inside tropical cyclone, which is one of severe weather events. Recent studies suggest that it is possible to predict the maximum wind velocity and minimum pressure near the center of the tropical cyclone by one or two days before if we monitor the lightning activities in the tropical cyclone. Many countries in the western Pacific region suffer from the attack of tropical cyclone (typhoon) and have a strong demand to predict the intensity development of typhoons. Thus, we started developing a new lightning observation system and installing the observation system at Guam, Palau, and Manila in the Philippines from this summer. The lightning observation system consists of a VLF sensor detecting lightning-excited electromagnetic waves in the frequency range of 1-5 kHz, an automatic data-processing unit, solar panels, and batteries. Lightning-excited pulse signals detected by the VLF sensor are automatically analyzed by the data-processing unit, and only the extracted information of the trigger time and pulse amplitude is transmitted to a data server via the 3G data communications. In addition, we are now developing an upgraded lightning and weather observation system, which will be installed at 50 automated weather stations in Metro Manila and 10 radar sites in the Philippines under the 5-year project (SATREPS) scheme. At the presentation, we will show the initial results derived from the lightning observation system in detail and will show the detailed future plan of the SATREPS project.

  8. Defining Political Marketing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ormrod, Robert P.

    ’ and ‘narrow’ interpretations of political marketing, the nature of the political marketing exchange, political relationship marketing and how one can integrate the stakeholder concept into an understanding of political marketing. Finally, we propose a definition of political marketing that differs from......The aim of this working paper is to develop a definition of political marketing that builds on the political rather than commercial marketing literature. This aim is motivated by the need to make explicit our understanding of what political marketing is, a necessary exercise when discussing theory......, concepts and empirical methods in political marketing. We first present five existing definitions of political marketing that have been selected to represent advances in research from the origins of academic research into political marketing in the mid-1970’s to the present day. After this we discuss ‘wide...

  9. Predictive Big Data Analytics: A Study of Parkinson's Disease Using Large, Complex, Heterogeneous, Incongruent, Multi-Source and Incomplete Observations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivo D Dinov

    -based predictive approaches, which failed to generate accurate and reliable diagnostic predictions. However, the results of several machine-learning based classification methods indicated significant power to predict Parkinson's disease in the PPMI subjects (consistent accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity exceeding 96%, confirmed using statistical n-fold cross-validation. Clinical (e.g., Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS scores, demographic (e.g., age, genetics (e.g., rs34637584, chr12, and derived neuroimaging biomarker (e.g., cerebellum shape index data all contributed to the predictive analytics and diagnostic forecasting.Model-free Big Data machine learning-based classification methods (e.g., adaptive boosting, support vector machines can outperform model-based techniques in terms of predictive precision and reliability (e.g., forecasting patient diagnosis. We observed that statistical rebalancing of cohort sizes yields better discrimination of group differences, specifically for predictive analytics based on heterogeneous and incomplete PPMI data. UPDRS scores play a critical role in predicting diagnosis, which is expected based on the clinical definition of Parkinson's disease. Even without longitudinal UPDRS data, however, the accuracy of model-free machine learning based classification is over 80%. The methods, software and protocols developed here are openly shared and can be employed to study other neurodegenerative disorders (e.g., Alzheimer's, Huntington's, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, as well as for other predictive Big Data analytics applications.

  10. Predictive Big Data Analytics: A Study of Parkinson's Disease Using Large, Complex, Heterogeneous, Incongruent, Multi-Source and Incomplete Observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinov, Ivo D; Heavner, Ben; Tang, Ming; Glusman, Gustavo; Chard, Kyle; Darcy, Mike; Madduri, Ravi; Pa, Judy; Spino, Cathie; Kesselman, Carl; Foster, Ian; Deutsch, Eric W; Price, Nathan D; Van Horn, John D; Ames, Joseph; Clark, Kristi; Hood, Leroy; Hampstead, Benjamin M; Dauer, William; Toga, Arthur W

    2016-01-01

    , which failed to generate accurate and reliable diagnostic predictions. However, the results of several machine-learning based classification methods indicated significant power to predict Parkinson's disease in the PPMI subjects (consistent accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity exceeding 96%, confirmed using statistical n-fold cross-validation). Clinical (e.g., Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) scores), demographic (e.g., age), genetics (e.g., rs34637584, chr12), and derived neuroimaging biomarker (e.g., cerebellum shape index) data all contributed to the predictive analytics and diagnostic forecasting. Model-free Big Data machine learning-based classification methods (e.g., adaptive boosting, support vector machines) can outperform model-based techniques in terms of predictive precision and reliability (e.g., forecasting patient diagnosis). We observed that statistical rebalancing of cohort sizes yields better discrimination of group differences, specifically for predictive analytics based on heterogeneous and incomplete PPMI data. UPDRS scores play a critical role in predicting diagnosis, which is expected based on the clinical definition of Parkinson's disease. Even without longitudinal UPDRS data, however, the accuracy of model-free machine learning based classification is over 80%. The methods, software and protocols developed here are openly shared and can be employed to study other neurodegenerative disorders (e.g., Alzheimer's, Huntington's, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis), as well as for other predictive Big Data analytics applications.

  11. Fetal biacromial diameter as a new ultrasound measure for prediction of macrosomia in term pregnancy: a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youssef, Alaa Eldin A; Amin, Ahmed F; Khalaf, Mohamed; Khalaf, Marwa S; Ali, Mohammed K; Abbas, Ahmed M

    2018-02-25

    The current study aims to evaluate a simple method for sonographic measurement of the fetal biacromial diameter for prediction of fetal macrosomia in term pregnancy. The current study was a single center prospective observational study conducted in a tertiary University Hospital from January 2015 to May 2017. We included all consecutive term (37-42 weeks) pregnant women presented to the labor ward for delivery. Ultrasound parameters were measured as biparietal diameter, head circumference, transverse thoracic diameter, mid arm diameter, abdominal circumference, femur length, estimated fetal weight and amniotic fluid index. The proposed ultrasound formula "Youssef's formula" to measure the fetal biacromial diameter is: [Transverse thoracic diameter + 2 × midarm diameter]. The accuracy of proposed formula was compared to the actual biacromial diameter of the newborn after delivery. The primary outcome of the study was accuracy of sonographic measurement of fetal biacromial diameter in prediction of fetal macrosomia in terms of sensitivity and specificity Results: The study included 600 participants; 49 (8.2%) of them delivered a macrosomic neonates and 551 (91.8%) delivered average weight neonates. There was no statistical significant difference between the proposed fetal biacromial diameter measured by ultrasound and the actual neonatal biacromial diameter measured after birth (p = 0.192). The area under the curve (AUC) for prediction of macrosomia at birth based on the fetal biacromial diameter and the abdominal circumference was 0.987 and 0.989, respectively on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Using the biacromial diameter cutoff of 15.4 cm has a PPV for prediction of macrosomia (88.4%) and 96.4% sensitivity with overall accuracy of 97%. Similarly, with the abdominal circumference (AC) cutoff of 35.5 cm, the PPV for prediction of macrosomia (87.7%) and 96.4% sensitivity with overall accuracy of 96.83%. No statistical significant

  12. A State-of-the-Art Review of the Sensor Location, Flow Observability, Estimation, and Prediction Problems in Traffic Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Castillo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A state-of-the-art review of flow observability, estimation, and prediction problems in traffic networks is performed. Since mathematical optimization provides a general framework for all of them, an integrated approach is used to perform the analysis of these problems and consider them as different optimization problems whose data, variables, constraints, and objective functions are the main elements that characterize the problems proposed by different authors. For example, counted, scanned or “a priori” data are the most common data sources; conservation laws, flow nonnegativity, link capacity, flow definition, observation, flow propagation, and specific model requirements form the most common constraints; and least squares, likelihood, possible relative error, mean absolute relative error, and so forth constitute the bases for the objective functions or metrics. The high number of possible combinations of these elements justifies the existence of a wide collection of methods for analyzing static and dynamic situations.

  13. Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andriuzzi, W S; Adams, B J; Barrett, J E; Virginia, R A; Wall, D H

    2018-02-01

    Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  14. Application of the NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System for Optimization of Agricultural Water Use in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melton, F. S.; Nemani, R. R.; Johnson, L. F.; Sheffner, E.; Michaelis, A.; Votava, P.; Hiatt, S. H.; Hashimoto, H.; Milesi, C.; Pierce, L.; Wang, W.

    2009-12-01

    California is in a third year of drought with April snowpack in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, which supplies the majority of water for agriculture in the state, at 60% of normal, impacting growers throughout the San Joaquin Valley. Competing demands from urban and environmental uses create further constraints on agricultural water supplies. Future climate scenarios for the western U.S. consistently predict reduced winter snow pack, earlier snowmelt, and higher temperatures. Such conditions will increase demand for agricultural water use during the summer growing season, while at the same time reducing the reliability of existing water sources for agricultural use. Previous studies have shown that adopting improved irrigation practices can save as much as 10% of agricultural applied water use. Achievement of these potential efficiency gains requires new data and information systems, built upon existing investments, that are capable of delivering estimates of evapotranspiration and irrigation demand to agricultural producers. We present a prototype system for optimization of agricultural water use that utilizes the NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) to integrate satellite observations and meteorological observations with models parameterized for specific crop types to produce forecasts of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and irrigation demand for multiple crop types in the San Joaquin Valley of California. The system employs wireless sensor networks to validate estimates from the modeling system and calibrate estimates of soil water balance. Irrigation forecasts and in-situ observations are distributed to water districts and agricultural producers via both SMS (text) messages delivered to hand-held devices, as well as via a browser-based irrigation optimization decision support system. A prototype system will be deployed, tested and evaluated in 2010.

  15. Language and Politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chimombo, Moira

    1999-01-01

    Surveys the interrelationship between language and politics. Touches on the context of political discourse, or political culture and ideology in new and old democracies and the reemerging manifestations of totalitarianism, censorship, and linguistic imperialism; then examines selected linguistic features of political discourse and their…

  16. Political CSR in an SME Perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeppesen, Søren; Morsing, Mette

    We engage a discussion of political CSR in SMEs in an African context. Based on critical observations on Western MNC action in emerging economies, political economists have argued that business profit far more than society from CSR. In this paper we argue that the imperative for growth in develop......We engage a discussion of political CSR in SMEs in an African context. Based on critical observations on Western MNC action in emerging economies, political economists have argued that business profit far more than society from CSR. In this paper we argue that the imperative for growth...

  17. The Predictive Value of Integrated Pulmonary Index after Off-Pump Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: A Prospective Observational Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evgenia V. Fot

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundThe early warning scores may increase the safety of perioperative period. The objective of this study was to assess the diagnostic and predictive role of Integrated Pulmonary Index (IPI after off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCAB.Materials and MethodsForty adult patients undergoing elective OPCAB were enrolled into a single-center prospective observational study. We assessed respiratory function using IPI that includes oxygen saturation, end-tidal CO2, respiratory rate, and pulse rate. In addition, we evaluated blood gas analyses and hemodynamics, including ECG, invasive arterial pressure, and cardiac index. The measurements were performed after transfer to the intensive care unit, after spontaneous breathing trial and at 2, 6, 12, and 18 h after extubation.Results and DiscussionThe value of IPI registered during respiratory support correlated weakly with cardiac index (rho = 0.4; p = 0.04 and ScvO2 (rho = 0.4, p = 0.02. After extubation, IPI values decreased significantly, achieving a minimum by 18 h. The IPI value ≤9 at 6 h after extubation was a predictor of complicated early postoperative period (AUC = 0.71; p = 0.04 observed in 13 patients.ConclusionIn off-pump coronary surgery, the IPI decreases significantly after tracheal extubation and may predict postoperative complications.

  18. Effectiveness of Cooperative Learning Instructional Tools With Predict-Observe-Explain Strategy on the Topic of Cuboid and Cube Volume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurhuda; Lukito, A.; Masriyah

    2018-01-01

    This study aims to develop instructional tools and implement it to see the effectiveness. The method used in this research referred to Designing Effective Instruction. Experimental research with two-group pretest-posttest design method was conducted. The instructional tools have been developed is cooperative learning model with predict-observe-explain strategy on the topic of cuboid and cube volume which consist of lesson plans, POE tasks, and Tests. Instructional tools were of good quality by criteria of validity, practicality, and effectiveness. These instructional tools was very effective for teaching the volume of cuboid and cube. Cooperative instructional tool with predict-observe-explain (POE) strategy was good of quality because the teacher was easy to implement the steps of learning, students easy to understand the material and students’ learning outcomes completed classically. Learning by using this instructional tool was effective because learning activities were appropriate and students were very active. Students’ learning outcomes were completed classically and better than conventional learning. This study produced a good instructional tool and effectively used in learning. Therefore, these instructional tools can be used as an alternative to teach volume of cuboid and cube topics.

  19. Comparison of empirical models with intensively observed data for prediction of salt intrusion in the Sumjin River estuary, Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. C. Shaha

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Performance of empirical models has been compared with extensively observed data to determine the most suitable model for prediction of salt intrusion in the Sumjin River estuary, Korea. Intensive measurements of salt intrusion were taken at high and low waters during both spring and neap tide in each season from August 2004 to April 2007. The stratification parameter varied with the distance along the estuary, tidal period and freshwater discharge, indicating that the Sumjin River estuary experiences a transition from partially- or well-mixed during spring tide to stratified during neap tide. The salt intrusion length at high water varied from 13.4 km in summer 2005 to 25.6 km in autumn 2006. The salt intrusion mostly depends on the freshwater discharge rather than spring-neap tidal oscillation. Analysis of three years observed salinity data indicates that the scale of the salt intrusion length in the Sumjin River estuary is proportional to the river discharge to the −1/5 power. Four empirical models have been applied to the Sumjin River estuary to explore the most suitable model for prediction of the salt intrusion length. Comparative results show that the Nguyen and Savenije (2006 model, developed under both partially- and well-mixed estuaries, performs best of all models studied (relative error of 4.6%. The model was also applied under stratified neap tide conditions, with a relative error of 5.2%, implying applicability of this model under stratified conditions as well.

  20. A model based approach in observing the activity of neuronal populations for the prediction of epileptic seizures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chong, M.S.; Nesic, D.; Kuhlmann, L.; Postoyan, R.; Varsavsky, A.; Cook, M.

    2010-01-01

    Full text: Epilepsy is a common neurological disease that affects 0.5-1 % of the world's population. In cases where known treatments cannot achieve complete recovery, seizure prediction is essential so that preventive measures can be undertaken to prevent resultant injury. The elcctroencephalogram (EEG) is a widely used diagnostic tool for epilepsy. However, the EEG does not provide a detailed view of the underlying seizure causing neuronal mechanisms. Knowing the dynamics of the neuronal population is useful because tracking the evolution of the neuronal mechanisms will allow us to track the brain's progression from interictal to ictal state. Wendling and colleagues proposed a parameterised mathematical model that represents the activity of interconnected neuronal populations. By modifying the parameters, this model is able to reproduce signals that are very similar to the real EEG depicting commonly observed patterns during interictal and ictal periods. The transition from non-seizure to seizure activity, as seen in the EEG. is hypothesised to be due to the impairment of inhibition. Using Wendling's model, we designed a deterministic nonlinear estimator to recover the average membrane potential of the neuronal populations from a single channel EEG signal. for any fixed and known parameter values. Our nonlinear estimator is analytically proven to asymptotically converge to the true state of the model and illustrated in simulations. We were able to computationally observe the dynamics of the three neuronal populations described in the model: excitatory, fast and slow inhibitory populations. This forms a first step towards the prediction of epileptic seiwres. (author)

  1. Defect states in hexagonal boron nitride: Assignments of observed properties and prediction of properties relevant to quantum computation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sajid, A.; Reimers, Jeffrey R.; Ford, Michael J.

    2018-02-01

    Key properties of nine possible defect sites in hexagonal boron nitride (h-BN), VN,VN -1,CN,VNO2 B,VNNB,VNCB,VBCN,VBCNS iN , and VNCBS iB , are predicted using density-functional theory and are corrected by applying results from high-level ab initio calculations. Observed h-BN electron-paramagnetic resonance signals at 22.4, 20.83, and 352.70 MHz are assigned to VN,CN, and VNO2 B , respectively, while the observed photoemission at 1.95 eV is assigned to VNCB . Detailed consideration of the available excited states, allowed spin-orbit couplings, zero-field splitting, and optical transitions is made for the two related defects VNCB and VBCN . VNCB is proposed for realizing long-lived quantum memory in h-BN. VBCN is predicted to have a triplet ground state, implying that spin initialization by optical means is feasible and suitable optical excitations are identified, making this defect of interest for possible quantum-qubit operations.

  2. Latitudinal and seasonal variability of the micrometeor input function: A study using model predictions and observations from Arecibo and PFISR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fentzke, J. T.; Janches, D.; Sparks, J. J.

    2009-05-01

    In this work, we use a semi-empirical model of the micrometeor input function (MIF) together with meteor head-echo observations obtained with two high power and large aperture (HPLA) radars, the 430 MHz Arecibo Observatory (AO) radar in Puerto Rico (18°N, 67°W) and the 450 MHz Poker flat incoherent scatter radar (PFISR) in Alaska (65°N, 147°W), to study the seasonal and geographical dependence of the meteoric flux in the upper atmosphere. The model, recently developed by Janches et al. [2006a. Modeling the global micrometeor input function in the upper atmosphere observed by high power and large aperture radars. Journal of Geophysical Research 111] and Fentzke and Janches [2008. A semi-empirical model of the contribution from sporadic meteoroid sources on the meteor input function observed at arecibo. Journal of Geophysical Research (Space Physics) 113 (A03304)], includes an initial mass flux that is provided by the six known meteor sources (i.e. orbital families of dust) as well as detailed modeling of meteoroid atmospheric entry and ablation physics. In addition, we use a simple ionization model to treat radar sensitivity issues by defining minimum electron volume density production thresholds required in the meteor head-echo plasma for detection. This simplified approach works well because we use observations from two radars with similar frequencies, but different sensitivities and locations. This methodology allows us to explore the initial input of particles and how it manifests in different parts of the MLT as observed by these instruments without the need to invoke more sophisticated plasma models, which are under current development. The comparisons between model predictions and radar observations show excellent agreement between diurnal, seasonal, and latitudinal variability of the detected meteor rate and radial velocity distributions, allowing us to understand how individual meteoroid populations contribute to the overall flux at a particular

  3. Processing of action- but not stimulus-related prediction errors differs between active and observational feedback learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobza, Stefan; Bellebaum, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Learning of stimulus-response-outcome associations is driven by outcome prediction errors (PEs). Previous studies have shown larger PE-dependent activity in the striatum for learning from own as compared to observed actions and the following outcomes despite comparable learning rates. We hypothesised that this finding relates primarily to a stronger integration of action and outcome information in active learners. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated brain activations related to action-dependent PEs, reflecting the deviation between action values and obtained outcomes, and action-independent PEs, reflecting the deviation between subjective values of response-preceding cues and obtained outcomes. To this end, 16 active and 15 observational learners engaged in a probabilistic learning card-guessing paradigm. On each trial, active learners saw one out of five cues and pressed either a left or right response button to receive feedback (monetary win or loss). Each observational learner observed exactly those cues, responses and outcomes of one active learner. Learning performance was assessed in active test trials without feedback and did not differ between groups. For both types of PEs, activations were found in the globus pallidus, putamen, cerebellum, and insula in active learners. However, only for action-dependent PEs, activations in these structures and the anterior cingulate were increased in active relative to observational learners. Thus, PE-related activity in the reward system is not generally enhanced in active relative to observational learning but only for action-dependent PEs. For the cerebellum, additional activations were found across groups for cue-related uncertainty, thereby emphasising the cerebellum's role in stimulus-outcome learning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Defining Political Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Ormrod, Robert P.

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this working paper is to develop a definition of political marketing that builds on the political rather than commercial marketing literature. This aim is motivated by the need to make explicit our understanding of what political marketing is, a necessary exercise when discussing theory, concepts and empirical methods in political marketing. We first present five existing definitions of political marketing that have been selected to represent advances in research from the origins o...

  5. Political entrepreneurship and bidding for political monopoly

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Wohlgemuth

    2000-01-01

    An analytical framework for dealing with political entrepreneurship and reform is proposed which is based on some new combinations of Schumpeterian political economy, an extended version of Tullock's model of democracy as franchise-bidding for natural monopoly and some basic elements of New Institutional Economics. It is shown that problems of insufficient award criteria and incomplete contracts which may arise in economic bidding schemes, also - and even more so - characterise political comp...

  6. (Un- Political Ethics, (un- Ethical Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolff-Michael Roth

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available Ethics and politics are normally con­sidered domains that do not mix, in fact, domains that have little to do with one another. In this article, I provide four factual fictions that show how at the university, research ethics and politics are intertwined. Politics appears to be used for the sole purpose of constructing and maintaining con­trol over the research process and its products. Ultimately, even ethics reviews of proposed research studies are caught up in the politics of power. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0403357

  7. Political party affiliation, political ideology and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pabayo, Roman; Kawachi, Ichiro; Muennig, Peter

    2015-05-01

    Ecological and cross-sectional studies have indicated that conservative political ideology is associated with better health. Longitudinal analyses of mortality are needed because subjective assessments of ideology may confound subjective assessments of health, particularly in cross-sectional analyses. Data were derived from the 2008 General Social Survey-National Death Index data set. Cox proportional analysis models were used to determine whether political party affiliation or political ideology was associated with time to death. Also, we attempted to identify whether self-reported happiness and self-rated health acted as mediators between political beliefs and time to death. In this analysis of 32,830 participants and a total follow-up time of 498,845 person-years, we find that political party affiliation and political ideology are associated with mortality. However, with the exception of independents (adjusted HR (AHR)=0.93, 95% CI 0.90 to 0.97), political party differences are explained by the participants' underlying sociodemographic characteristics. With respect to ideology, conservatives (AHR=1.06, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.12) and moderates (AHR=1.06, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.11) are at greater risk for mortality during follow-up than liberals. Political party affiliation and political ideology appear to be different predictors of mortality. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  8. Predicting Observable Quantities of Self-Assembled Metamaterials from the T-Matrix of Its Constituting Meta-Atom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suryadharma, Radius N S; Rockstuhl, Carsten

    2018-01-30

    Self-assembled metamaterials attract considerable interest as they promise to make isotropic bulk metamaterials available at low costs. The optical response of self-assembled metamaterials is derived predominantly from the response of its individual constituents, i.e., the meta-atoms. Beyond effective properties, primary experimentally observable quantities, such as specific cross-sections, are at the focus of interest as they are frequently considered when exploiting metamaterials in specific applications. This posses the challenge of predicting these observable quantities for a diluted ensemble of randomly oriented meta-atoms. Thus far, this has been achieved by either averaging the optical response of the meta-atom across all possible incident fields or by restricting the consideration to only an electric and magnetic dipolar response. This, however, is either time-consuming or imposes an unnecessary limitation. Here, we solve this problem by deriving and presenting explicit expressions for experimentally observable quantities of metamaterials made from randomly arranged and oriented meta-atoms characterized by their T-matrix.

  9. Progress in Space Weather Modeling and Observations Needed to Improve the Operational NAIRAS Model Aircraft Radiation Exposure Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertens, C. J.; Kress, B. T.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Tobiska, W.; Xu, X.

    2011-12-01

    The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a prototype operational model for predicting commercial aircraft radiation exposure from galactic and solar cosmic rays. NAIRAS predictions are currently streaming live from the project's public website, and the exposure rate nowcast is also available on the SpaceWx smartphone app for iPhone, IPad, and Android. Cosmic rays are the primary source of human exposure to high linear energy transfer radiation at aircraft altitudes, which increases the risk of cancer and other adverse health effects. Thus, the NAIRAS model addresses an important national need with broad societal, public health and economic benefits. The processes responsible for the variability in the solar wind, interplanetary magnetic field, solar energetic particle spectrum, and the dynamical response of the magnetosphere to these space environment inputs, strongly influence the composition and energy distribution of the atmospheric ionizing radiation field. During the development of the NAIRAS model, new science questions were identified that must be addressed in order to obtain a more reliable and robust operational model of atmospheric radiation exposure. Addressing these science questions require improvements in both space weather modeling and observations. The focus of this talk is to present these science questions, the proposed methodologies for addressing these science questions, and the anticipated improvements to the operational predictions of atmospheric radiation exposure. The overarching goal of this work is to provide a decision support tool for the aviation industry that will enable an optimal balance to be achieved between minimizing health risks to passengers and aircrew while simultaneously minimizing costs to the airline companies.

  10. Can MRI Observations Predict Treatment Outcome of Lavage in Patients with Painful TMJ Disc Displacement without Reduction?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EwaCarin Ekberg

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The purpose of this study was to examine magnetic resonance imaging findings in patients with painful disc displacement without reduction of the temporomandibular joint to determine whether the findings were able to predict treatment outcome of lavage and a control group treated with local anaesthesia without lavage in a short-term: 3-month perspective. Material and Methods: Bilateral magnetic resonance images were taken of 37 patients with the clinical diagnosis of painful disc displacement without reduction. Twenty-three patients received unilateral extra-articular local anaesthetics and 14 unilateral lavage and extra-articular local anaesthetics. The primary treatment outcome defining success was reduction in pain intensity of at least 30% during jaw movement at the 3-month follow-up. Results: Bilateral disc displacement was found in 30 patients. In 31 patients the disc on the treated side was deformed, and bilaterally in 19 patients. Osteoarthritis was observed in 28 patients, and 13 patients had bilateral changes. Thirty patients responded to treatment and 7 did not, with no difference between the two treated groups. In neither the treated nor the contralateral temporomandibular joint did treatment outcome depend on disc diagnosis, disc shape, joint effusion, or osseous diagnoses. Magnetic resonance imaging findings of disc position, disc shape, joint effusion or osseous diagnosis on the treated or contralateral side did not give information of treatment outcome. Conclusions: Magnetic resonance imaging findings could not predict treatment outcome in patients treated with either local anaesthetics or local anaesthetics and lavage.

  11. Can MRI Observations Predict Treatment Outcome of Lavage in Patients with Painful TMJ Disc Displacement without Reduction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekberg, EwaCarin; Hansson, Lars-Göran; List, Thomas; Eriksson, Lars; Sahlström, Lotta Englesson; Petersson, Arne

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine magnetic resonance imaging findings in patients with painful disc displacement without reduction of the temporomandibular joint to determine whether the findings were able to predict treatment outcome of lavage and a control group treated with local anaesthesia without lavage in a short-term: 3-month perspective. Bilateral magnetic resonance images were taken of 37 patients with the clinical diagnosis of painful disc displacement without reduction. Twenty-three patients received unilateral extra-articular local anaesthetics and 14 unilateral lavage and extra-articular local anaesthetics. The primary treatment outcome defining success was reduction in pain intensity of at least 30% during jaw movement at the 3-month follow-up. Bilateral disc displacement was found in 30 patients. In 31 patients the disc on the treated side was deformed, and bilaterally in 19 patients. Osteoarthritis was observed in 28 patients, and 13 patients had bilateral changes. Thirty patients responded to treatment and 7 did not, with no difference between the two treated groups. In neither the treated nor the contralateral temporomandibular joint did treatment outcome depend on disc diagnosis, disc shape, joint effusion, or osseous diagnoses. Magnetic resonance imaging findings of disc position, disc shape, joint effusion or osseous diagnosis on the treated or contralateral side did not give information of treatment outcome. Magnetic resonance imaging findings could not predict treatment outcome in patients treated with either local anaesthetics or local anaesthetics and lavage.

  12. Comparison of observed rheological properties of hard wheat flour dough with predictions of the Giesekus-Leonov, White-Metzner and Phan-Thien Tanner models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhanasekharan, M.; Huang, H.; Kokini, J. L.; Janes, H. W. (Principal Investigator)

    1999-01-01

    The measured rheological behavior of hard wheat flour dough was predicted using three nonlinear differential viscoelastic models. The Phan-Thien Tanner model gave good zero shear viscosity prediction, but overpredicted the shear viscosity at higher shear rates and the transient and extensional properties. The Giesekus-Leonov model gave similar predictions to the Phan-Thien Tanner model, but the extensional viscosity prediction showed extension thickening. Using high values of the mobility factor, extension thinning behavior was observed but the predictions were not satisfactory. The White-Metzner model gave good predictions of the steady shear viscosity and the first normal stress coefficient but it was unable to predict the uniaxial extensional viscosity as it exhibited asymptotic behavior in the tested extensional rates. It also predicted the transient shear properties with moderate accuracy in the transient phase, but very well at higher times, compared to the Phan-Thien Tanner model and the Giesekus-Leonov model. None of the models predicted all observed data consistently well. Overall the White-Metzner model appeared to make the best predictions of all the observed data.

  13. Conspicuous political brand interactions on Social Network Sites

    OpenAIRE

    Marder, Ben; Marchant, Caroline; Archer-Brown, Chris; Yau, Amy; Colliander, Jonas

    2018-01-01

    Purpose Acquiring ‘Likes’ for a political party or candidate’s Facebook pages is important for political marketers. For consumers these ‘Likes’ are conspicuous, making their political affiliation visible to their network. Our study examines the roles of the undesired social-self and visibility (conspicuous vs. inconspicuous) in predicting consumers’ intention to ‘Like’ political brands. We extend knowledge on the undesired social-self, transference of theory from general marketing to a politi...

  14. GPS positioning accuracy using the current generation of IGU near real-time observed and predicted orbits from the IGS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weston, N. D.; Ray, J. R.

    2009-04-01

    We investigate the performance of the latest generation of IGU near real-time observed and predicted orbits provided by the International GNSS Service (IGS) by comparing positioning results using them with those from the rapid and final counterparts. The ultra-rapid near real-time observed orbits (first half of each two-day SP3 file) have an initial latency of about three hours and are updated four times a day while the predicted half orbits (second day of each SP3 file) are available for true real-time applications. The early IGS ultra-rapid orbits of both types, which began in late 2000, had an estimated accuracy of 5 to 10 cm. The accuracy of the ultra-rapid orbits have improved significantly and now have mean weighted RMS residuals compared to the IGS rapid orbits of about 2.5 cm (after fitting and removing a daily Helmert transformation) with mean median residuals of less than 2 cm. Rotational offsets of the GPS constellation due to EOP prediction errors, especially for UT1, are usually larger than random orbit errors, reaching up to about 3.5 mm RMS around the Z axis (equatorial at GPS altitude). The rapid and final orbits, which we use for reference here, are more accurate but have latencies of approximately 17 hours and 13 days, respectively. To evaluate the positioning performance of the IGS near real-time and real-time orbits, GPS reference station data collected for a sample of days during the second half of 2008 from about 72 CORS sites throughout the United States have been processed using each of those orbit types as well as the IGS rapid and final products. A time series of daily position estimates for each GPS station has been determined for each of the four orbit types and the respective repeatabilities computed. The initial results from this study are promising and show that the accuracy in computing reference station coordinates using the ultra-rapid orbits has improved significantly. There are however, slightly larger variations from the mean

  15. Contentious Politics and Participatory Democracy in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Wampler

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/2175-7984.2014v13n28p199 Contentious politics helps individuals and groups with limited political voice to place their ideas and interests on the political agenda. Contentious politics were long thought to occur when politically marginalized group had no other means to advance their political agenda. The June 2013 social mobilization in Brazil caught most political observers by surprise, especially given the creation of a large, wide-spread participatory architecture (national conferences, councils, participatory budgeting. The innovative institutions emerging in Brazil created a policy environment in which millions of citizens have regular access to state policymaking bodies. How does the institutionalization of a broader network of participatory institutions make it easier for citizens to engage in contentious politics? In what ways does this institutionalization make it more difficult for some citizens to engage in contentious politics? In what ways has the vast network of participatory institutions been largely irrelevant to how citizens use contentious politics? This article explore how the institutionalization of an extensive participatory democracy system in Brazil alters the incentive structures that encourage citizens to engage in contentious collective action.

  16. Exploring Women's Understanding of Politics, Political Contestation ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Exploring Women's Understanding of Politics, Political Contestation and Gender Transformation in the Caribbean. IDRC's Democratic Governance, Women's Rights and Gender Equality initiative is supporting a body of comparative research on whether and how democratic processes and institutions are responding to ...

  17. Civic political culture, participatory governance and political ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study x-rayed the significance of civic political culture on participatory governance and its potentialities on political development. It adopted theoretical postulations in analyzing the subject matter. The analytical model showed a diagrammatic presentation of the relationship among participant culture features, elements ...

  18. Civic Political Culture, Participatory Governance and Political ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prof

    Indexed African Journals Online: www.ajol.info as its potential contribution to political development in Nigeria-as it will be applicable to other developing countries of the world. This study provided theoretical postulations in analysing the notion of participatory governance, and linking the research problem (civic political ...

  19. Political Values or the Value of Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simoska, Emilija

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This essay was motivated by the gap between proclaimed democratic principles and the perceptions of politics which are exhibited by the citizens in transitional countries -more specifically in the Republic of Macedonia. It is based on research data collected in the past few decades, which illustrate that, in their political actions, the citizens are highly motivated by personal benefits and profits, rather than by their internalized values and ideologies. Non-democratic, authoritarian values prevail, while politics is perceived as a value itself, in the most materialistic meaning of the word. It creates a suitable milieu for growth of corruption, nepotism and clientelism. The authors conclude that such a circulus vitsiosus is a corner stone of the Macedonian political regime, and an enormous obstacle for the advancement of the participative, democratic political culture in reality, in spite of its formal acceptance.

  20. Ocean Observing Public-Private Collaboration to Improve Tropical Storm and Hurricane Predictions in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, R.; Leung, P.; McCall, W.; Martin, K. M.; Howden, S. D.; Vandermeulen, R. A.; Kim, H. S. S.; Kirkpatrick, B. A.; Watson, S.; Smith, W.

    2016-02-01

    In 2008, Shell partnered with NOAA to explore opportunities for improving storm predictions in the Gulf of Mexico. Since, the collaboration has grown to include partners from Shell, NOAA National Data Buoy Center and National Center for Environmental Information, National Center for Environmental Prediction, University of Southern Mississippi, and the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Ocean Observing System. The partnership leverages complementary strengths of each collaborator to build a comprehensive and sustainable monitoring and data program to expand observing capacity and protect offshore assets and Gulf communities from storms and hurricanes. The program combines in situ and autonomous platforms with remote sensing and numerical modeling. Here we focus on profiling gliders and the benefits of a public-private partnership model for expanding regional ocean observing capacity. Shallow and deep gliders measure ocean temperature to derive ocean heat content (OHC), along with salinity, dissolved oxygen, fluorescence, and CDOM, in the central and eastern Gulf shelf and offshore. Since 2012, gliders have collected 4500+ vertical profiles and surveyed 5000+ nautical miles. Adaptive sampling and mission coordination with NCEP modelers provides specific datasets to assimilate into EMC's coupled HYCOM-HWRF model and 'connect-the-dots' between well-established Eulerian metocean measurements by obtaining (and validating) data between fixed stations (e.g. platform and buoy ADCPs) . Adaptive sampling combined with remote sensing provides satellite-derived OHC validation and the ability to sample productive coastal waters advected offshore by the Loop Current. Tracking coastal waters with remote sensing provides another verification of estimate Loop Current and eddy boundaries, as well as quantifying productivity and analyzing water quality on the Gulf coast, shelf break and offshore. Incorporating gliders demonstrates their value as tools to better protect offshore oil and gas assets

  1. Improving the Forecast Accuracy of an Ocean Observation and Prediction System by Adaptive Control of the Sensor Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talukder, A.; Panangadan, A. V.; Blumberg, A. F.; Herrington, T.; Georgas, N.

    2008-12-01

    The New York Harbor Observation and Prediction System (NYHOPS) is a real-time, estuarine and coastal ocean observing and modeling system for the New York Harbor and surrounding waters. Real-time measurements from in-situ mobile and stationary sensors in the NYHOPS networks are assimilated into marine forecasts in order to reduce the discrepancy with ground truth. The forecasts are obtained from the ECOMSED hydrodynamic model, a shallow water derivative of the Princeton Ocean Model. Currently, all sensors in the NYHOPS system are operated in a fixed mode with uniform sampling rates. This technology infusion effort demonstrates the use of Model Predictive Control (MPC) to autonomously adapt the operation of both mobile and stationary sensors in response to changing events that are -automatically detected from the ECOMSED forecasts. The controller focuses sensing resources on those regions that are expected to be impacted by the detected events. The MPC approach involves formulating the problem of calculating the optimal sensor parameters as a constrained multi-objective optimization problem. We have developed an objective function that takes into account the spatiotemporal relationship of the in-situ sensor locations and the locations of events detected by the model. Experiments in simulation were carried out using data collected during a freshwater flooding event. The location of the resulting freshwater plume was calculated from the corresponding model forecasts and was used by the MPC controller to derive control parameters for the sensing assets. The operational parameters that are controlled include the sampling rates of stationary sensors, paths of unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs), and data transfer routes between sensors and the central modeling computer. The simulation experiments show that MPC-based sensor control reduces the RMS error in the forecast by a factor of 380% as compared to uniform sampling. The paths of multiple UUVs were simultaneously

  2. Hate as a Political Outcast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Birgitte Schepelern

    2015-01-01

    Increasingly, certain types of crime, speech and prejudice are being targeted by European policy makers under the label of “hate.” Building on participant observations at anti-hate crime conferences in Copenhagen and Vilnius, and policy documents and campaign material from a range of national...... hatred. Keywords: hate, hate crime, politics, emotions, liberal democracy...

  3. Relationship between the Prediction Accuracy of Tsunami Inundation and Relative Distribution of Tsunami Source and Observation Arrays: A Case Study in Tokyo Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takagawa, T.

    2017-12-01

    A rapid and precise tsunami forecast based on offshore monitoring is getting attention to reduce human losses due to devastating tsunami inundation. We developed a forecast method based on the combination of hierarchical Bayesian inversion with pre-computed database and rapid post-computing of tsunami inundation. The method was applied to Tokyo bay to evaluate the efficiency of observation arrays against three tsunamigenic earthquakes. One is a scenario earthquake at Nankai trough and the other two are historic ones of Genroku in 1703 and Enpo in 1677. In general, rich observation array near the tsunami source has an advantage in both accuracy and rapidness of tsunami forecast. To examine the effect of observation time length we used four types of data with the lengths of 5, 10, 20 and 45 minutes after the earthquake occurrences. Prediction accuracy of tsunami inundation was evaluated by the simulated tsunami inundation areas around Tokyo bay due to target earthquakes. The shortest time length of accurate prediction varied with target earthquakes. Here, accurate prediction means the simulated values fall within the 95% credible intervals of prediction. In Enpo earthquake case, 5-minutes observation is enough for accurate prediction for Tokyo bay, but 10-minutes and 45-minutes are needed in the case of Nankai trough and Genroku, respectively. The difference of the shortest time length for accurate prediction shows the strong relationship with the relative distance from the tsunami source and observation arrays. In the Enpo case, offshore tsunami observation points are densely distributed even in the source region. So, accurate prediction can be rapidly achieved within 5 minutes. This precise prediction is useful for early warnings. Even in the worst case of Genroku, where less observation points are available near the source, accurate prediction can be obtained within 45 minutes. This information can be useful to figure out the outline of the hazard in an early

  4. Gaps in Political Interest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Robison, Joshua

    2015-01-01

    Political interest fundamentally influences political behavior, knowledge, and persuasion (Brady, Verba, & Schlozman, 1995; Delli Carpini & Keeter, 1996; Luskin, 1990; Zukin, Andolina, Keeter, Jenkins, & Delli Carpini, 2006). Since the early 1960s, the American National Election Studies (ANES) ha...

  5. Sustainability : Politics and governance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heinrichs, Harald; Biermann, Frank

    2016-01-01

    he article gives an overview of global sustainability policy and politics. It is shown how international policy making on sustainable development has progressed from environmental policy toward recent approaches of Earth system governance. Key challenges of international sustainability politics are

  6. Comparing Political Communication

    OpenAIRE

    Pfetsch, Barbara; Esser, Frank

    2012-01-01

    This chapter describes the maturation of comparative political communications as a sub-discipline and defines its conceptual core. It then lays out the concept of “political communication system”. At the macro-level, this model captures the patterns of interaction between media and politics as social systems; at the micro-level it captures the interactions between media and political actors as individuals or organizations. Comparative research in this tradition focuses on the structure of pol...

  7. Does sarcopenia predict change in mobility after hip fracture? a multicenter observational study with one-year follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steihaug, Ole Martin; Gjesdal, Clara Gram; Bogen, Bård; Kristoffersen, Målfrid Holen; Lien, Gunhild; Hufthammer, Karl Ove; Ranhoff, Anette Hylen

    2018-03-05

    Patients with hip fracture frequently have sarcopenia and are at great risk of loss of mobility. We have investigated if sarcopenia predicts change in mobility after hip fracture. This is a prospective, multicenter observational study with one-year follow-up. Patients with hip fracture who were community-living and capable of walking before the fracture were included at three hospitals in Norway (2011-2013). The primary outcome of the study was change in mobility, measured by the New Mobility Score (NMS). Sarcopenia was determined postoperatively by anthropometry, grip strength, and NMS. We included 282 participants and sarcopenia status was determined in 201, of whom 38% (77/201) had sarcopenia, 66% (128/194) had low muscle mass, 52% (116/222) had low grip strength and 8% (20/244) had low pre-fracture mobility (NMS mobility (effect 0.2 points; 95% CI -0.5 to 0.9, P = 0.6), but it was associated with having lower mobility at one-year (NMS 5.8 (SD 2.3) vs. 6.8 (SD 2.2), P = 0.003), becoming a resident of a nursing home (odds ratio 3.2, 95% CI 0.9 to 12.4, P = 0.048), and the combined endpoint of becoming a resident of a skilled nursing home or death (odds ratio 3.6, 95% CI 1.2 to 12.2, P = 0.02). Sarcopenia did not predict change in mobility in the year after hip fracture.

  8. Western Political Consulting Techniques and Post-Soviet Political Technology in Political Campaigns in Latvia

    OpenAIRE

    Bērziņa, Ieva

    2012-01-01

    Western Political Consulting Techniques and Post-Soviet Political Technology in Political Campaigns in Latvia Ieva Dmitričenko Keywords: political campaignsm political consulting, political technology, parties, marketing, media Political campaigning is an international phenomenon, because there is a free flow of information, knowledge and human resource among practitioners of political campaigning in various countries. As a result political campaigning techniques that have proven to ...

  9. Inclusion as political mobilisation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, Anne Mette; Muwanga, Nansozi

    2016-01-01

    Uganda has been successful in broadening access to education. However, this achievement has been undermined by low literacy and numeracy levels and high drop-out rates. A political settlement perspective sheds light on the politics of education reforms. We find that there are weak political drive...

  10. Verbal Behavior and Politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graber, Doris A.

    This book illustrates how and why knowledge of verbal behavior is important to an understanding of politics by analyzing and describing verbal behavior studies pertaining to politics. Chapters in the first part of the book discuss the various characteristics of verbal behavior: the importance of verbal behavior in politics, construction of…

  11. Policy Research and Politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaskell, Jane

    1988-01-01

    Explores what it means to do research intended to be relevant for public policy. Argues against perception of policy research as politically neutral technical exercise. Discusses political implications of methodology. Discusses research examples to illustrate point. Discusses implications for how research might be used in political process.…

  12. Teaching Politically Correct Language

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsehelska, Maryna

    2006-01-01

    This article argues that teaching politically correct language to English learners provides them with important information and opportunities to be exposed to cultural issues. The author offers a brief review of how political correctness became an issue and how being politically correct influences the use of language. The article then presents…

  13. Tracking Politics with POWER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, Silvio; Batista, David S.; Carvalho, Paula; Couto, Francisco M.; Silva, Mario J.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: POWER is an ontology of political processes and entities. It is designed for tracking politicians, political organizations and elections, both in mainstream and social media. The aim of this paper is to propose a data model to describe political agents and their relations over time. Design/methodology/approach: The authors propose a data…

  14. Political Education in School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dag, Nilgun; Sozer, Mehmet Akif; Sel, Burcu

    2015-01-01

    Political education is a term with negative associations and triggering prejudiced approaches and discourses--maybe some paranoid thoughts--like "keep politics away from education!" in the minds of several people. This article deals with "political education" phenomenon almost never discussed and made subject to scientific…

  15. Lobbying and political polarization

    OpenAIRE

    Ursprung, Heinrich W.

    2002-01-01

    Standard spatial models of political competition give rise to equilibria in which the competing political parties or candidates converge to a common position. In this paper I show how political polarization can be generated in models that focus on the nexus between pre-election interest group lobbying and electoral competition.

  16. Predicted light scattering from particles observed in human age-related nuclear cataracts using mie scattering theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, M Joseph; Johnsen, Sönke; Gilliland, Kurt O; Freel, Christopher D; Fowler, W Craig

    2007-01-01

    To employ Mie scattering theory to predict the light-scattering from micrometer-sized particles surrounded by lipid shells, called multilamellar bodies (MLBs), reported in human age-related nuclear cataracts. Mie scattering theory is applicable to randomly distributed spherical and globular particles separated by distances much greater than the wavelength of incident light. With an assumed refractive index of 1.40 for nuclear cytoplasm, particle refractive indices from 1.33 to 1.58 were used to calculate scattering efficiencies for particle radii 0.05 to 3 microm and incident light with wavelengths (in vacuo) of 400, 550, and 700 nm. Surface plots of scattering efficiency versus particle radius and refractive index were calculated for coated spherical particles. Pronounced peaks and valleys identified combinations of particle parameters that produce high and low scattering efficiencies. Small particles (scattering efficiency over a wide range of particle refractive indices. Particles with radii 0.6 to 3 microm and refractive indices 0.08 to 0.10 greater (or less) than the surrounding cytoplasm had very high scattering efficiencies. This size range corresponds well to MLBs in cataractous nuclei (average MLB radius, 1.4 microm) and, at an estimated 4000 particles/mm(3) of tissue, up to 18% of the incident light was scattered primarily within a 20 degrees forward cone. The calculated size of spherical particles that scatter efficiently was close to the observed dimensions of MLBs in cataractous nuclei. Particle refractive indices only 0.02 units different from the surrounding cytoplasm scatter a significant amount of light. These results suggest that the MLBs observed in human age-related nuclear cataracts may be major sources of forward light scattering that reduces contrast of fine details, particularly under dim light.

  17. Problems of political corruption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ćirić Jovan

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The author in this work speaks about general problems of political corruption in the world and in Serbia. The author tries to define the phenomenon of political corruption and pays special attention to financing political parties. Ćirić gives the overview of international documents about financing political parties and gives us the overview of MP's salaries in some western countries. At the end it is analyzed the question of trading MP's mandate, as a matter of fact who is the owner of the mandate of one representative - that representative, or his/her political party. That also could be the origin of different manipulations and corruption.

  18. Telephone Encounters Predict Future High Financial Expenditures in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients: A 3-Year Prospective Observational Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Click, Benjamin; Anderson, Alyce M; Ramos Rivers, Claudia; Koutroubakis, Ioannis E; Hashash, Jana G; Dunn, Michael A; Schwartz, Marc; Swoger, Jason; Barrie, Arthur; Szigethy, Eva; Regueiro, Miguel; Schoen, Robert E; Binion, David G

    2018-04-01

    Telephone activity is essential in management of complex chronic diseases including inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Telephone encounters logged in the electronic medical record have recently been proposed as a surrogate marker of disease activity and impending health care utilization; however, the association between telephone calls and financial expenditures has not been evaluated. We performed a 3-year prospective observational study of telephone encounters logged at a tertiary referral IBD center. We analyzed patient demographics, disease characteristics, comorbidities, clinical activity, and health care financial charges by telephone encounter frequency. Eight hundred one patients met inclusion criteria (52.3% female; mean age, 44.1 y), accounted for 12,669 telephone encounters, and accrued $70,513,449 in charges over 3 years. High telephone encounter frequency was associated with female gender (P=0.003), anxiety/depression (Pfinancial charges the following year after controlling for demographic, utilization, and medication covariates. Increased telephone encounters are associated with significantly higher health care utilization and financial expenditures. Increased call frequency is predictive of future health care spending. Telephone encounters are a useful tool to identify patients at risk of clinical deterioration and large financial expense.

  19. Predicted and observed growth of Listeria monocytogenes in seafood challenge tests and in naturally contaminated cold smoked salmon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Paw; Jørgensen, Lasse Vigel

    1998-01-01

    The performance of the Pathogen Modelling Program, the Food MicroModel, the Murphy-model and the Ross-model for growth of L. monocytogenes was evaluated by comparison with data from 100 seafood challenge tests and data from 13 storage trials with naturally contaminated sliced vacuum-packed cold......-smoked salmon. Challenge tests with both cured and noncured products were studied, and graphs as well as the bias-and the accuracy factors were used for comparison of the observed and predicted growth. The Pathogen Modelling Program could not be successfully validated in seafood challenge tests. Growth rates...... were markedly overestimated and the mu(max)-bias factor was as high as 3.9 in challenge tests with cured products. On the basis of the effect of temperature, NaCl/a(w) and pH, the mu(max)-bias factor of the other three models studied, varied between 1.0 and 2.3 in the challenge tests with cured...

  20. Religion and Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bandak, Andreas

    2018-01-01

    Religion and politics provide an interesting juxtaposition. On the one hand, both may initially come across as rather self-evident categories, with religion dealing with human perceptions and what people hold as sacred, and politics addressing the control and governance of fellow human beings....... Nonetheless, such a simple opposition should only work as a starting point for an interrogation of both terms and how they have come to look and function as empirical and analytical categories. Focusing on the ways that religion is played out in relation to politics reveals different historical and cultural...... constellations and positions, which can be highlighted as variations of religion as politics, religion in politics, religion out of politics, and religion not politics....

  1. Political Budget Cycles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aaskoven, Lasse; Lassen, David Dreyer

    2017-01-01

    The political budget cycle—how elections affect government fiscal policy—is one of the most studied subjects in political economy and political science. The key theoretical question is whether incumbent governments can time or structure public finances in ways that improve their chances of reelec......The political budget cycle—how elections affect government fiscal policy—is one of the most studied subjects in political economy and political science. The key theoretical question is whether incumbent governments can time or structure public finances in ways that improve their chances...... on political budget cycles have recently focused on conditions under which such cycles are likely to obtain. Much recent research focuses on subnational settings, allowing comparisons of governments in similar institutional environments, and a consensus on the presences of cycles in public finances...

  2. Putting politics first.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, Jacob S

    2008-01-01

    The greatest lesson of the failure of comprehensive health reform in the early 1990s is that politics comes first. Even the best-laid policy plans are worthless if they lack the political support to pass. Putting politics first means avoiding the overarching mistake of the Clinton reformers: envisioning a grand policy compromise rather than hammering out a real political compromise. It also means addressing the inevitable fears of those who believe that they are well protected by our eroding employment-based system. And it means formulating political strategies that are premised on the contemporary realities of the hyperpolarized U.S. political environment, rather than wistfully recalled images of the bipartisan politics of old.

  3. The politics of researching global health politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rushton, Simon

    2015-01-01

    In this comment, I build on Shiffman’s call for the global health community to more deeply investigate structural and productive power. I highlight two challenges we must grapple with as social scientists carrying out the types of investigation that Shiffman proposes: the politics of challenging the powerful; and the need to investigate types of expertise that have traditionally been thought of as ‘outside’ global health. In doing so, I argue that moving forward with the agenda Shiffman sets out requires social scientists interested in the global politics of health to be reflexive about our own exercise of structural and productive power and the fact that researching global health politics is itself a political undertaking. PMID:25905482

  4. Political Corruption: An Institutional Aspect

    OpenAIRE

    Наронская, Анна Гегамовна

    2017-01-01

    This article is devoted to corruption’s impact on the functioning of political institutions. In the author’s opinion, political corruption leads to informal institutionalization and degradation of political institutions. The author concludes that public control can prevent political corruption.Key words: the political corruption, conflict of interests, formal and informal institutions, political process.

  5. Political consumer behaviour among university students in Brazil and Germany: The role of contextual features and core political values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotzur, Patrick F; Torres, Cláudio V; Kedzior, Karina K; Boehnke, Klaus

    2017-04-01

    This study investigates the relationship between political consumerism and core political values (CPVs) among university students in Brazil (N = 414) and Germany (N = 222). Despite the prerequisite to endorse values that are compatible with political consumerism, contextual features of one's immediate environment might affect overall levels of political consumerism. Our results show that political consumerism is significantly associated with higher income in Brazil (but not in Germany). After controlling for income, political consumerism was practised more frequently in Germany than in Brazil, in urban compared with rural areas, and was not dependent on gender. The urban-rural split was stronger in Brazil than in Germany. These results confirm our hypothesis that contextual features are associated with political consumerism. Furthermore, the political value Equality positively predicted political consumerism in both countries. In contrast, Traditional Morality and support of Free Enterprise negatively predicted political consumerism, although the effect sizes of these relationships were only small. These results suggest that political consumerism among university students is widespread in Germany but not in Brazil. Interestingly, regardless of its low prevalence in Brazil, political consumerism is positively associated with the CPV of Equality among university students in both countries. © 2015 International Union of Psychological Science.

  6. Essays on Political Economy of the Media

    OpenAIRE

    Lam, Onyi

    2017-01-01

    My research focuses on understanding the political economy of traditional and newmedia. I study these issues by exploiting natural experiments, employing data techniquesborrowed from machine learning and using both observational data from traditional andnew sources.

  7. Management of Technology - a political process approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koch, Christian

    1999-01-01

    Most management of technology writings fail to address enterprise developments as political processes, where visions, coalitions and emergence are central features. The paper report of a participants observation study of management of technology processes.......Most management of technology writings fail to address enterprise developments as political processes, where visions, coalitions and emergence are central features. The paper report of a participants observation study of management of technology processes....

  8. Comparing Political Journalism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Comparing Political Journalism is a systematic, in-depth study of the factors that shape and influence political news coverage today. Using techniques drawn from the growing field of comparative political communication, an international group of contributors analyse political news content drawn f...... Comparing Political Journalism offers an unparalleled scope in assessing the implications for the ongoing transformation of Western media systems, and addresses core concepts of central importance to students and scholars of political communication world-wide.......Comparing Political Journalism is a systematic, in-depth study of the factors that shape and influence political news coverage today. Using techniques drawn from the growing field of comparative political communication, an international group of contributors analyse political news content drawn...... from newspapers, television news, and news websites from 16 countries, to assess what kinds of media systems are most conducive to producing quality journalism. Underpinned by key conceptual themes, such as the role that the media are expected to play in democracies and quality of coverage...

  9. School of Political Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. D. Voskresensky

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Out of all the departments of political sciences in Russia - the Department at MGIMO-University is probably the oldest one. In fact it is very young. While MGIMO-University is celebrating its 70th anniversary the Department of Political Sciences turns 15. Despite the fact that political analyst is a relatively new profession in Russia, it acquired a legal standing only in the 1990s, the political science school at MGIMO-University is almost as old as the university itself. Unlike many other universities, focused on the training teachers of political science or campaign managers MGIMO-University has developed its own unique political science school of "full cycle", where students grow into political sciences from a zero level up to the highest qualifications as teachers and researchers, and campaign managers, consultants and practitioners. The uniqueness of the school of political science at MGIMO-University allows its institutional incarnation -the Department of Political Science - to offer prospective studentsa training in a wide range of popular specialties and specializations, while ensuring a deep theoretical and practical basis of the training. Studying at MGIMO-University traditionally includes enhanced linguistic component (at least two foreign languages. For students of international relations and political science learning foreign languages is particularly important.It allows not only to communicate, but also to produce expertise and knowledge in foreign languages.

  10. Moral foundations and political attitudes: The moderating role of political sophistication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milesi, Patrizia

    2016-08-01

    Political attitudes can be associated with moral concerns. This research investigated whether people's level of political sophistication moderates this association. Based on the Moral Foundations Theory, this article examined whether political sophistication moderates the extent to which reliance on moral foundations, as categories of moral concerns, predicts judgements about policy positions. With this aim, two studies examined four policy positions shown by previous research to be best predicted by the endorsement of Sanctity, that is, the category of moral concerns focused on the preservation of physical and spiritual purity. The results showed that reliance on Sanctity predicted political sophisticates' judgements, as opposed to those of unsophisticates, on policy positions dealing with equal rights for same-sex and unmarried couples and with euthanasia. Political sophistication also interacted with Fairness endorsement, which includes moral concerns for equal treatment of everybody and reciprocity, in predicting judgements about equal rights for unmarried couples, and interacted with reliance on Authority, which includes moral concerns for obedience and respect for traditional authorities, in predicting opposition to stem cell research. Those findings suggest that, at least for these particular issues, endorsement of moral foundations can be associated with political attitudes more strongly among sophisticates than unsophisticates. © 2015 International Union of Psychological Science.

  11. Hydrodynamics of a bathymetrically complex fringing coral reef embayment: Wave climate, in situ observations, and wave prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoeke, R.; Storlazzi, C.; Ridd, P.

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between offshore wave climate and nearshore waves and currents at Hanalei Bay, Hawaii, an exposed bay fringed with coral reefs. Analysis of both offshore in situ data and numerical hindcasts identify the predominance of two wave conditions: a mode associated with local trade winds and an episodic pattern associated with distant source long-period swells. Analysis of 10 months of in situ data within the bay show that current velocities are up to an order of magnitude greater during long-period swell episodes than during trade wind conditions; overall circulation patterns are also fundamentally different. The current velocities are highly correlated with incident wave heights during the swell episodes, while they are not during the modal trade wind conditions. A phase-averaged wave model was implemented with the dual purpose of evaluating application to bathymetrically complex fringing reefs and to examine the propagation of waves into the nearshore in an effort to better explain the large difference in observed circulation during the two offshore wave conditions. The prediction quality of this model was poorer for the episodic condition than for the lower-energy mode, however, it illustrated how longer-period swells are preferentially refracted into the bay and make available far more nearshore wave energy to drive currents compared to waves during modal conditions. The highly episodic circulation, the nature of which is dependent on complex refraction patterns of episodic, long-period swell has implications for flushing and sediment dynamics for incised fringing reef-lined bays that characterize many high islands at low latitudes around the world.

  12. Testing predictions of forest succession using long-term measurements: 100 yrs of observations in the Oregon Cascades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark E. Harmon; Robert J. Pabst

    2015-01-01

    Question: Many predictions about forest succession have been based on chronosequences. Are these predictions – at the population, community and ecosystemlevel – consistent with long-termmeasurements in permanent plots? Location: Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco dominated forest in western Oregon, US.Methods: Over a 100-yr period,...

  13. Application of the nonlinear time series prediction method of genetic algorithm for forecasting surface wind of point station in the South China Sea with scatterometer observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhong Jian; Dong Gang; Sun Yimei; Zhang Zhaoyang; Wu Yuqin

    2016-01-01

    The present work reports the development of nonlinear time series prediction method of genetic algorithm (GA) with singular spectrum analysis (SSA) for forecasting the surface wind of a point station in the South China Sea (SCS) with scatterometer observations. Before the nonlinear technique GA is used for forecasting the time series of surface wind, the SSA is applied to reduce the noise. The surface wind speed and surface wind components from scatterometer observations at three locations in the SCS have been used to develop and test the technique. The predictions have been compared with persistence forecasts in terms of root mean square error. The predicted surface wind with GA and SSA made up to four days (longer for some point station) in advance have been found to be significantly superior to those made by persistence model. This method can serve as a cost-effective alternate prediction technique for forecasting surface wind of a point station in the SCS basin. (paper)

  14. Politics and health outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Vicente; Muntaner, Carles; Borrell, Carme; Benach, Joan; Quiroga, Agueda; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Vergés, Núria; Pasarín, M Isabel

    2006-09-16

    The aim of this study was to examine the complex interactions between political traditions, policies, and public health outcomes, and to find out whether different political traditions have been associated with systematic patterns in population health over time. We analysed a number of political, economic, social, and health variables over a 50-year period, in a set of wealthy countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Our findings support the hypothesis that the political ideologies of governing parties affect some indicators of population health. Our analysis makes an empirical link between politics and policy, by showing that political parties with egalitarian ideologies tend to implement redistributive policies. An important finding of our research is that policies aimed at reducing social inequalities, such as welfare state and labour market policies, do seem to have a salutary effect on the selected health indicators, infant mortality and life expectancy at birth.

  15. Political learning among youth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solhaug, Trond; Kristensen, Niels Nørgaard

    2014-01-01

    This article focuses on students’ first political learning and explores the research question, what dynamic patterns of political learning can be explored among a selection of young, diverse Danish students’ first political interests? The authors use theories of learning in their analytical...... approach to students´ stories. A group of 10 young students who claim a certain political interest and attend a social studies course in Danish upper secondary school were selected to interview. A “life story approach” is used in the interviews and in the analytical approach. Findings: contrary to many...... “single agent studies in the tradition” of political socialization, the authors find that all students display a complex pattern of political influence. The influence from various agents like school, family, media and peers is also rather complex. Students are not passive recipients of influence...

  16. Establishing Political Deliberation Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rose, Jeremy; Sæbø, Øystein

    2008-01-01

    The extension and transformation of political participation is dependent on widespread deliberation supported by information and communication technologies.  The most commonly found examples of these eParticipation systems are political discussion forums.  Though much of the discussion...... of these technologies is conducted in the eGovernment and (particularly) the eDemocracy literature, political discussion forums present a distinct set of design and management challenges which relate directly to IS concerns. In this article we analyze problems in establishing political deliberation systems under five...... headings: stakeholder engagement, web platform design, web platform management, political process re-shaping and evaluation and improvement. We review the existing literature and present a longitudinal case study of a political discussion forum: the Norwegian DemokratiTorget (Democracy Square).  We define...

  17. Spaces of Open-source Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Husted, Emil; Plesner, Ursula

    2017-01-01

    spaces constructed by The Alternative as techniques for practicing open-source politics and observe that physical and digital spaces create an oscillation between openness and closure. In turn, this oscillation produces a dialectical relationship between practices of imagination and affirmation......The recent proliferation of Web 2.0 applications and their role in contemporary political life have inspired the coining of the term ‘open-source politics’. This article analyzes how open-source politics is organized in the case of a radical political party in Denmark called The Alternative...... both closure and disconnection between a party’s universal body and its particular body. In conclusion, however, we propose that such a disconnection might be a precondition for success when institutionalizing radical politics, as it allows parties like The Alternative to maintain their universal...

  18. The Game Frame and Political Efficacy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Tue

    2012-01-01

    Several observational and experimental studies have confirmed the ‘spiral of cynicism’ hypothesis: the tendency of the news media to cover politics through a game frame, which focuses on political strategy instead of political issues, leads to cynicism about election campaigns and politicians among...... the electorate. However, such cynicism may in itself be somewhat inconsequential, and so this article suggests that we move beyond cynicism regarding specific electoral campaigns or politicians, and that we turn our attention towards political efficacy. This is done in an empirical study, which is based...... on a survey among the electorate and a content analysis of political coverage in newspapers. The study shows that exposure to the game frame is indeed associated with lower levels of internal efficacy, even when controlling for potentially confounding variables....

  19. The specific of the romanian political language in the second half of XIX century. Case study: Mihai Eminescu's political articles

    OpenAIRE

    Mocanu, Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Our study proposes an analysis of Romanian political language in the second half of XIX century, in terms of specific discursive mechanisms, of semantic mutations that are recorded in the political vocabulary of the time, of the discrepancies that characterize verbal sign in the space of political communication. Since the press of this time plays a crucial role in the formation and distribution of the Romanian political language, we support our observations on the analysis of pol...

  20. Atmosphere: Power, Critique, Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albertsen, Niels

    2016-01-01

    This paper hans three interrelated parts. First, atmosphere is approached through the concept of power. Atmospheres 'grip' us directly or mediate power indirectly by manipulating moods and evoking emotions. How does atmosphere relate to different conceptions of power? Second, atmospheric powers may...... be critiqued. Which conception of critique can be involved? Third, critiquing atmospheric powers can generate political conflict. How does atmospheric disputes relate to conceptions of politics and the political?...

  1. Chaos theory in politics

    CERN Document Server

    Erçetin, Şefika; Tekin, Ali

    2014-01-01

    The present work investigates global politics and political implications of social science and management with the aid of the latest complexity and chaos theories. Until now, deterministic chaos and nonlinear analysis have not been a focal point in this area of research. This book remedies this deficiency by utilizing these methods in the analysis of the subject matter. The authors provide the reader a detailed analysis on politics and its associated applications with the help of chaos theory, in a single edited volume.

  2. Predicting prognosis in stable angina - results from the Euro heart survey of stable angina: prospective observational study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daly, Caroline A.; De Stavola, Bianca; Sendon, Jose L. Lopez

    2006-01-01

    infarction in the first year was 2.3 per 100 patient years; the rate was 3.9 per 100 patient years in the subgroup (n = 994) with angiographic confirmation of coronary disease. The clinical and investigative factors most predictive of adverse outcome were comorbidity, diabetes, shorter duration of symptoms......, increasing severity of symptoms, abnormal ventricular function, resting electrocardiogaphic changes, or not having any stress test done. Results of non-invasive stress tests did not significantly predict outcome in the population who had tests done. A score was constructed using the parameters predictive...

  3. Defining political community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sladeček Michal M.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the concept of political community, its constitution and value. The starting point is that the concept of community is not sufficiently recognized in modern political theories, as well as in contemporary liberal theory. In the last two decades communitarian and republican political theory attempted to revitalize this notion. The first part of the paper elaborates on the polemics between these three theoretical orientations. The concluding part examines the possibilities and prospect for stable political community in conditions of pluralism of particular social communities and ethnocultural heterogeneity.

  4. Politics, Security, Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wæver, Ole

    2011-01-01

    ’ is distinct from both the study of political practices of securitization and explorations of competing concepts of politics among security theories. It means tracking what kinds of analysis the theory can produce and whether such analysis systematically impacts real-life political struggles. Securitization...... theory is found to ‘act politically’ through three structural features that systematically shape the political effects of using the theory. The article further discusses – on the basis of the preceding articles in the special issue – three emerging debates around securitization theory: ethics...

  5. Envy, Politics, and Age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Christine R.; Henniger, Nicole E.

    2013-01-01

    In the last 5 years, the phrase “politics of envy” has appeared more than 621 times in English-language newspapers, generally in opinion essays contending that political liberalism reflects and exploits feelings of envy. Oddly, this assertion has not been tested empirically. We did so with a large adult sample (n = 357). Participants completed a Dispositional Envy Scale and questions about political ideology, socioeconomic status, and age. Envy and age were moderately correlated; younger people reported greater envy. Political ideology and envy were weakly correlated; however, this relationship was not significant when controlling for age. PMID:23471177

  6. Gendering transnational party politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kantola, Johanna; Rolandsen-Agustín, Lise

    2016-01-01

    research traditions, we build toward an analytical framework to study gender and transnational party politics. Our empirical analysis focuses on two policy issues, the economic crisis and the sexual and reproductive health and rights, analyzing European Parliament reports, debates and voting on the issues......In this article, we analyze transnational party politics in the European Union from a gender perspective. This is a subject that has been neglected both by mainstream European studies on party politics and by gender scholars who work on political parties. Drawing on the insights of these two...... right axis and, at the same time, internal divisions within party groups affect policy output....

  7. New Institutional Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buğra KALKAN

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available New institutional politics is an interdisciplinary movement that tries to reinstate the institutional politics to the center of the political science. After the limits of formal-legal analyze, used by old institutional politics, have been criticized by behaviorists, rational choice and neo-Marxist movements, since 1950, the state was alienated from the center of the political studies as an independent variable. Since 1980, neo institutional politics, raised as a reaction to this development, has been developing a new description and understanding of the institution which goes beyond the limitations of the old one. The rise and change of the political institutions and the interactions between political institutions and the actors, are being retheorized, by depending on informal rules and conventions as much as formal rules, and pointing out cultural factors as much as legal factors. So, in this study, rational choice, sociological and historical new institutional politics, as the three different school of new institutionalism, will be examined separately and there will be a debate on colliding and overlapping points of these schools

  8. Astronomy and Politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, John M.

    The relationship between astronomy and politics is a complex but important part of understanding the practice of astronomy throughout history. This chapter explores some of the ways that astronomy, astrology, and politics have interacted, placing particular focus on the way that astronomy and astrology have been used for political purposes by both people in power and people who wish to influence a ruler's policy. Also discussed are the effects that politics has had on the development of astronomy and, in particular, upon the recording and preservation of astronomical knowledge.

  9. Prediction of right ventricular failure after ventricular assist device implant: systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellavia, Diego; Iacovoni, Attilio; Scardulla, Cesare; Moja, Lorenzo; Pilato, Michele; Kushwaha, Sudhir S; Senni, Michele; Clemenza, Francesco; Agnese, Valentina; Falletta, Calogero; Romano, Giuseppe; Maalouf, Joseph; Dandel, Michael

    2017-07-01

    Right ventricular failure (RVF) after left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, but the identification of LVAD candidates at risk for RVF remains challenging. We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies of risk factors associated with RVF after LVAD implant. Thirty-six studies published between 1 January 1995 and 30 April 2015, comprising 995 RVF patients out of a pooled final population of 4428 patients, were identified. Meta-analysed prevalence of post-LVAD RVF was 35%. A need for mechanical ventilation [odds ratio (OR) 2.99], or continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT; OR 4.61, area under the curve 0.78, specificity 0.91) were the clinical variables with the highest effect size (ES) in predicting RVF. International normalized ratio [INR; standardized mean difference (SMD) 0.49] and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) (SMD 0.52) were the biochemical markers that best discriminated between RVF and No-RVF populations, though NT-proBNP was highly heterogeneous. Right ventricular stroke work index (RVSWI) and central venous pressure (CVP) (SMD -0.58 and 0.47, respectively) were the haemodynamic measures with the highest ES in identifying patients at risk of post-LVAD RVF; CVP was particularly useful in risk stratifying patients undergoing continuous-flow LVAD implant (SMD 0.59, P right ventricular (RV) dysfunction, as assessed qualitatively (OR 2.82), or a greater RV/LV diameter ratio (SMD 0.51) were the standard echocardiographic measurements with the highest ES in comparing RVF with No-RVF patients. Longitudinal systolic strain of the RV free wall had the highest ES (SMD 0.73) but also the greatest heterogeneity (I 2 = 74%) and was thus only marginally significant (P = 0.05). Patients on ventilatory support or CRRT are at high risk for post-LVAD RVF, similarly to patients with slightly increased INR, high NT-proBNP or leukocytosis. High CVP, low RVSWI

  10. Morality and politics: Comparing alternate theories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Andrew; Vaisey, Stephen

    2015-09-01

    Debates about the American "culture wars" have led scholars to develop several theories relating morality to political attitudes and behaviors. However, researchers have not adequately compared these theories, nor have they examined the overall contribution of morality to explaining political variation. This study uses nationally representative data to compare the utility of 19 moral constructs from four research traditions - associated with the work of Hunter, Lakoff, Haidt, and Schwartz - for predicting political orientation (liberalism/conservatism). Results indicate that morality explains a third of the variation in political orientation - more than basic demographic and religious predictors - but that no one theory provides a fully adequate explanation of this phenomenon. Instead, political orientation is best predicted by selected moral constructs that are unique to each of the four traditions, and by two moral constructs that crosscut them. Future work should investigate how these moral constructs can be synthesized to create a more comprehensive theory of morality and politics. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Political Economics and Public Finance

    OpenAIRE

    Persson, Torsten; Tabellini, Guido

    1999-01-01

    Observed fiscal policy varies greatly across time and countries. How can we explain this variation across time and countries? This paper surveys the recent literature that has tried to answer this question. We adopt a unified approach in portraying public policy as the equilibrium outcome of an explicitly specified political process. We divide the material into three parts. In Part I, we focus on median-voter equilibria that apply to policy issues where disagreement between voters is likely t...

  12. Means-Tested Public Assistance Programs and Adolescent Political Socialization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Carolyn Y; Hope, Elan C

    2017-07-01

    In recent years, scholars have pointed to the politically demobilizing effects of means-tested assistance programs on recipients. In this study, we bridge the insights from policy feedback literature and adolescent political socialization research to examine how receiving means-tested programs shapes parent influence on adolescent political participation. We argue that there are differences in pathways to political participation through parent political socialization and youth internal efficacy beliefs for adolescents from households that do or do not receive means-tested assistance. Using data from a nationally representative sample of 536 Black, Latino, and White adolescents (50.8% female), we find that adolescents from means-tested assistance households report less parent political socialization and political participation. For all youth, parent political socialization predicts adolescent political participation. Internal political efficacy is a stronger predictor of political participation for youth from a non-means-tested assistance household than it is for youth from a household receiving means-tested assistance. These findings provide some evidence of differential paths to youth political participation via exposure to means-tested programs.

  13. It's complicated: Facebook users' political participation in the 2008 election.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitak, Jessica; Zube, Paul; Smock, Andrew; Carr, Caleb T; Ellison, Nicole; Lampe, Cliff

    2011-03-01

    In the 2008 U.S. presidential election, social network sites such as Facebook allowed users to share their political beliefs, support specific candidates, and interact with others on political issues. But do political activities on Facebook affect political participation among young voters, a group traditionally perceived as apathetic in regard to civic engagement? Or do these activities represent another example of feel-good participation that has little real-world impact, a concept often referred to as "slacktivism"? Results from a survey of undergraduate students (N = 683) at a large public university in the Midwestern United States conducted in the month prior to the election found that students tend to engage in lightweight political participation both on Facebook and in other venues. Furthermore, two OLS regressions found that political activity on Facebook (e.g., posting a politically oriented status update, becoming a "fan" of a candidate) is a significant predictor of other forms of political participation (e.g., volunteering for an organizing, signing a paper or online petition), and that a number of factors--including intensity of Facebook use and the political activity users see their friends performing on the site--predict political activity on Facebook. Students' perceptions regarding the appropriateness of political activity on Facebook, as well as the specific kinds of political activities they engaged in and witnessed within the site, were also explored.

  14. Expanding Policy Imagination in Political Economy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seabrooke, Leonard

    2006-01-01

    Much of the literature in political economy seeks to capture an essential insight into the evolution of political and economic systems to provide a foundation for policy advice. This article suggests that attempts to nut out the kernels of change often restrict rather than expand policy imagination...... capacity to see political, social, and economic changes that do not conform to conventional theories, as well as distorting our understanding of how the contemporary world works. What policymakers want, more than prediction or recitation of conventional theories, is context to understand how policy can...... be implemented. Historical sociology provides a way to generate information about contextual constellations through two "tonics": intentional rationality and social mechanisms. With the assistance of these tonics, historical sociology widens political economy's policy imagination....

  15. Cognitive Ability, Principled Reasoning and Political Tolerance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hebbelstrup Rye Rasmussen, Stig; Nørgaard, Asbjørn Sonne

    Individuals are not equally politically tolerant. To explain why, individual differences in emotions and threat have received much scholarly attention in recent years. However, extant research also shows that psychological dispositions, habitual cognitive styles, ideological orientation...... and ‘principled reasoning’ influence political tolerance judgments. The extent to which cognitive ability plays a role has not been entertained even if the capacity to think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas and apply abstract ideas to concrete situations is inherent to both principled tolerance judgment...... and cognitive ability. Cognitive ability, we argue and show, adds to the etiology of political tolerance. In Danish and American samples cognitive ability strongly predicts political tolerance after taking habitual cognitive styles (as measured by personality traits), education, social ideology, and feelings...

  16. Usage of marketing in politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marić Ivana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Multi-party political system led to competition between political parties which caused the need for marketing in politics that improves political reputation. Politics, based on rich experience of political practice, used existing, developed methods and techniques of commercial marketing. Political marketing openly admits that politics and politicians are simply goods that are being sold on a political market. Political marketing is a whole way of operation by political parties which ask these questions: how do the voters choose; what affects their preference and how that preference can be influenced. Usage of political marketing in Bosnia and Herzegovina is still not on a satisfactory level but the knowledge about the importance of political marketing is increasing.

  17. Using observation and self-report to predict mean, 90th percentile, and cumulative low back muscle activity in heavy industry workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trask, Catherine; Teschke, Kay; Morrison, Jim; Village, Judy; Johnson, Peter; Koehoorn, Mieke

    2010-07-01

    Occupational injury research depends on the ability to accurately assess workplace exposures for large numbers of workers. This study used mixed modeling to identify observed and self-reported predictors of mean, 90th percentile, and cumulative low back muscle activity to help researchers efficiently assess physical exposures in epidemiological studies. Full-shift low back electromyography (EMG) was measured for 133 worker-days in heavy industry. Additionally, full-shift, 1-min interval work-sampling observations and post-shift interviews assessed exposure to work tasks, trunk postures, and manual materials handling. Data were also collected on demographic and job variables. Regression models using observed variables predicted 31-47% of the variability in the EMG activity measures, while self-reported variables predicted 21-36%. Observation-based models performed better than self-report-based models and may provide an alternative to direct measurement of back injury risk factors.

  18. Accuracy of diagnoses predicted from a simple patient questionnaire stratified by the duration of general ambulatory training: an observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uehara T

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Takanori Uehara,1,2 Masatomi Ikusaka,1 Yoshiyuki Ohira,1 Mitsuyasu Ohta,1,2 Kazutaka Noda,1 Tomoko Tsukamoto,1 Toshihiko Takada,1 Masahito Miyahara11Department of General Medicine, Chiba University Hospital, 2Division of Rotated Collaboration Systems for Local Healthcare, Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba University, Chiba, JapanPurpose: To compare the diagnostic accuracy of diseases predicted from patient responses to a simple questionnaire completed prior to examination by doctors with different levels of ambulatory training in general medicine.Participants and methods: Before patient examination, five trained physicians, four short-term-trained residents, and four untrained residents examined patient responses to a simple questionnaire and then indicated, in rank order according to their subjective confidence level, the diseases they predicted. Final diagnosis was subsequently determined from hospital records by mentor physicians 3 months after the first patient visit. Predicted diseases and final diagnoses were codified using the International Classification of Diseases version 10. A “correct” diagnosis was one where the predicted disease matched the final diagnosis code.Results: A total of 148 patient questionnaires were evaluated. The Herfindahl index was 0.024, indicating a high degree of diversity in final diagnoses. The proportion of correct diagnoses was high in the trained group (96 of 148, 65%; residual analysis, 4.4 and low in the untrained group (56 of 148, 38%; residual analysis, -3.6 (χ2=22.27, P<0.001. In cases of correct diagnosis, the cumulative number of correct diagnoses showed almost no improvement, even when doctors in the three groups predicted ≥4 diseases.Conclusion: Doctors who completed ambulatory training in general medicine while treating a diverse range of diseases accurately predicted diagnosis in 65% of cases from limited written information provided by a simple patient questionnaire, which proved useful

  19. Happiness and Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Landes, Xavier

    2013-01-01

    Over the last thirty years, happiness research in psychology, economics and philosophy has been discussing the proper meaning of happiness and its main determinants. Moreover, the idea has spread within academic and political circles that it may be legitimate for institutions to engage in “politics...... of happiness”. This article presents a critique of the project of promoting happiness through public policies....

  20. Polite Interactions with Robots

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Benotti, Luciana; Blackburn, Patrick Rowan

    2016-01-01

    We sketch an inference architecture that permits linguistic aspects of politeness to be interpreted; we do so by applying the ideas of politeness theory to the SCARE corpus of task-oriented dialogues, a type of dialogue of particular relevance to robotics. The fragment of the SCARE corpus we...

  1. Political Communication with Animals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijer, E.

    2013-01-01

    In this article I sketch the outlines of a theory of political human-animal conversations, based on ideas about language that I borrow from Ludwig Wittgenstein’s later work, in particular his notion of language-games. I present this theory as a supplement to the political theory of animal rights Sue

  2. Seizing Political Opportunity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Citi, Manuele; Justesen, Mogens Kamp

    2016-01-01

    Political actors need to be nimble and respond to the opportunity to reform old policies and initiate new ones. The article looks at how the European Commission takes advantage of politically opportune moments (the ‘gridlock interval’) in the European Parliament to put forward new legislation...

  3. Principals' Perceptions of Politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tooms, Autumn K.; Kretovics, Mark A.; Smialek, Charles A.

    2007-01-01

    This study is an effort to examine principals' perceptions of workplace politics and its influence on their productivity and efficacy. A survey was used to explore the perceptions of current school administrators with regard to workplace politics. The instrument was disseminated to principals serving public schools in one Midwestern state in the…

  4. The Politics of Encyclopaedias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fozooni, Babak

    2012-01-01

    The paper assesses the political credibility of three encyclopaedias (Encyclopaedia Britannica, Encyclopedia of Marxism and Wikipedia) in relation to three chosen topics (Friedrich Engels's biography; the political philosophy of fascism; and, the discipline of social psychology). I was interested in discerning how entries are represented and…

  5. Political Corruption in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Steven R.; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Provides an overview of political corruption and its place in Japanese culture and society. Discusses recent scandals and efforts at political reform. These efforts are moving Japan from a "boss-patronage" system to a "civic-culture." Includes a table of post-war Japanese prime ministers and corruption scandals. (MJP)

  6. Senturion: A Predictive Political Simulation Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Abdollahian, Mark; Baranick, Michael; Efird, Brian; Kugler, Jacek

    2006-01-01

    .... With an ever-increasing spectrum of threats, more objective analytic capabilities that draw on all-source intelligence and advances in computational methods are needed to help provide insight and aid...

  7. Political Attitudes Develop Independently of Personality Traits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatemi, Peter K.; Verhulst, Brad

    2015-01-01

    The primary assumption within the recent personality and political orientations literature is that personality traits cause people to develop political attitudes. In contrast, research relying on traditional psychological and developmental theories suggests the relationship between most personality dimensions and political orientations are either not significant or weak. Research from behavioral genetics suggests the covariance between personality and political preferences is not causal, but due to a common, latent genetic factor that mutually influences both. The contradictory assumptions and findings from these research streams have yet to be resolved. This is in part due to the reliance on cross-sectional data and the lack of longitudinal genetically informative data. Here, using two independent longitudinal genetically informative samples, we examine the joint development of personality traits and attitude dimensions to explore the underlying causal mechanisms that drive the relationship between these features and provide a first step in resolving the causal question. We find change in personality over a ten-year period does not predict change in political attitudes, which does not support a causal relationship between personality traits and political attitudes as is frequently assumed. Rather, political attitudes are often more stable than the key personality traits assumed to be predicting them. Finally, the results from our genetic models find that no additional variance is accounted for by the causal pathway from personality traits to political attitudes. Our findings remain consistent with the original construction of the five-factor model of personality and developmental theories on attitude formation, but challenge recent work in this area. PMID:25734580

  8. Political attitudes develop independently of personality traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatemi, Peter K; Verhulst, Brad

    2015-01-01

    The primary assumption within the recent personality and political orientations literature is that personality traits cause people to develop political attitudes. In contrast, research relying on traditional psychological and developmental theories suggests the relationship between most personality dimensions and political orientations are either not significant or weak. Research from behavioral genetics suggests the covariance between personality and political preferences is not causal, but due to a common, latent genetic factor that mutually influences both. The contradictory assumptions and findings from these research streams have yet to be resolved. This is in part due to the reliance on cross-sectional data and the lack of longitudinal genetically informative data. Here, using two independent longitudinal genetically informative samples, we examine the joint development of personality traits and attitude dimensions to explore the underlying causal mechanisms that drive the relationship between these features and provide a first step in resolving the causal question. We find change in personality over a ten-year period does not predict change in political attitudes, which does not support a causal relationship between personality traits and political attitudes as is frequently assumed. Rather, political attitudes are often more stable than the key personality traits assumed to be predicting them. Finally, the results from our genetic models find that no additional variance is accounted for by the causal pathway from personality traits to political attitudes. Our findings remain consistent with the original construction of the five-factor model of personality and developmental theories on attitude formation, but challenge recent work in this area.

  9. Exploring Women's Understanding of Politics, Political Contestation ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    First, researchers will explore women's political leadership and the extent to which it promotes the will to transform gender relations both within and outside the state. Second, they will assess quota systems for their impact on women's participation and leadership in representative government. Third, they will evaluate the ...

  10. Affect in electoral politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaser, J; Salovey, P

    1998-01-01

    Recent U.S. history provides vivid illustrations of the importance of politicians' emotional displays in subsequent judgments of them. Yet, a review of empirical research on the role of affect (emotion, mood, and evaluation) in electoral politics reveals little work that has focused on the impact of candidates' emotional expression on voters' preferences for them. A theoretical framework is proposed to identify psychological mechanisms by which a target's displays of emotion influence judgments of that target. Findings from the emerging literature on emotions and politics challenge the traditional assumption of political science that voters make decisions based solely on the cold consideration of nonaffectively charged information. The affect and politics literature, although somewhat unfocused and broad, represents an interdisciplinary domain of study that contributes to the understanding of both electoral politics and social interaction more generally.

  11. Political Competition and Polarization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schultz, Christian

    This paper considers political competition and the consequences of political polarization when parties are better informed about how the economy functions than voters are. Specifically, parties know the cost producing a public good, voters do not. An incumbent's choice of policy acts like a signa...... for costs before an upcoming election. It is shown that the more polarized the political parties the more distorted the incumbent's policy choice.......This paper considers political competition and the consequences of political polarization when parties are better informed about how the economy functions than voters are. Specifically, parties know the cost producing a public good, voters do not. An incumbent's choice of policy acts like a signal...

  12. The Politics of Dependence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cockburn, Patrick Joseph

    The central claim of this book is that thinking about ‘dependence’ should be at the core of political theory principally because it helps us to think about issues of economic justice. Unlike political theories that either condemn or celebrate dependence, the book argues that dependence...... is an inescapable fact of social life, neither good nor bad in itself. The real political issues are about how we as a society organise and judge various forms of dependence. And this is, in fact, what much political debate is about if we dig beneath the surface. On the one hand, we disagree about how we should...... organise vulnerability; on the other hand, we disagree about who we should condemn as parasitical. Vulnerability and parasitism are thus key concepts for understanding political debate about forms of dependence. Showing the tension between these two sides to the problem of economic dependence...

  13. Socrates: Platonic Political Ideal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher P. Long

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This essay articulates the differences and suggests the similarities between the practices of Socratic political speaking and those of Platonic political writing. The essay delineates Socratic speaking and Platonic writing as both erotically oriented toward ideals capable of transforming the lives of individuals and their relationships with one another. Besides it shows that in the Protagoras the practices of Socratic political speaking are concerned less with Protagoras than with the individual young man, Hippocrates. In the Phaedo, this ideal of a Socrates is amplified in such a way that Platonic writing itself emerges as capable of doing with readers what Socratic speaking did with those he encountered. Socrates is the Platonic political ideal. The result is a picture of the transformative political power of Socratic speaking and Platonic writing both.

  14. Political Power and Violence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bianca Mitu

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Political violence plays a huge role in public affairs and people's behavior, requiring both knowledge and rigorous research in many of its occurrences and its consequences for the proper management, organization and functioning of a society as a whole. Although political violence is a problem of a particular importance in our social life it is not analyzed and investigated in the scientific literature. Political violence it is a subject that usually passes into oblivion. This study presents some ideas and themes about the role and functions of political power, displaying the types of political violence and their consequences for the management and functioning of a society, which can be subject to wider debates and researchs.

  15. Can an early perceptuo-motor skills assessment predict future performance in youth table tennis players? : An observational study (1998-2013)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Faber, Irene R.; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T.; Oosterveld, Frits G. J.; Twisk, Jos W. R.; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, Maria W. G.

    2017-01-01

    This study intended to investigate the capability of the 4 test items "sprint", "agility", "speed while dribbling" and "throwing a ball" of the Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment used at the age of 7-10 years to predict table tennis performance (U13, U15 and U18) in an observational study. Data

  16. Can an early perceptuo-motor skills assessment predict future performance in youth table tennis players? An observational study (1998-2013)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Faber, I.R.; Elferink-Gemser, M.T.; Oosterveld, F.G.; Twisk, J.W.R.; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, M.W.G.

    2017-01-01

    This study intended to investigate the capability of the 4 test items "sprint", "agility", "speed while dribbling" and "throwing a ball" of the Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment used at the age of 7-10 years to predict table tennis performance (U13, U15 and U18) in an observational study. Data

  17. The Use of the Framingham Equation to Predict Myocardial Infarctions in HIV-infected Patients: Comparison with Observed Events in the D:A:D Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Law, MG; Friis-Møller, Nina; El-Sadr, WM

    2006-01-01

    and predicted rates of MI increased in a parallel fashion with increased CART duration, suggesting that the observed increase in risk of MI may at least in part be explained by CART-induced changes in conventional risk factors. These findings provide guidance in terms of choosing lifestyle or therapeutic...

  18. A Five-Stage Prediction-Observation-Explanation Inquiry-Based Learning Model to Improve Students' Learning Performance in Science Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiao, Hsien-Sheng; Chen, Jyun-Chen; Hong, Jon-Chao; Chen, Po-Hsi; Lu, Chow-Chin; Chen, Sherry Y.

    2017-01-01

    A five-stage prediction-observation-explanation inquiry-based learning (FPOEIL) model was developed to improve students' scientific learning performance. In order to intensify the science learning effect, the repertory grid technology-assisted learning (RGTL) approach and the collaborative learning (CL) approach were utilized. A quasi-experimental…

  19. Political Differences in Past, Present, and Future Life Satisfaction: Republicans Are More Sensitive than Democrats to Political Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandel, David R.; Omorogbe, Philip

    2014-01-01

    Previous research finds that Republicans report being happier or more satisfied with their lives than Democrats. Using representative American samples from 2002, 2005, 2007, 2009, and 2010, we tested a Person × Situation interactionist account in which political affiliation (Democrat, Republican) and political climate (favorable when the president in office is of the same party) are proposed to affect past, present, and anticipated future life satisfaction. Meta-analyses of related tests of key hypotheses confirmed that (a) life satisfaction was greater when the political climate was favorable rather than unfavorable and (b) Republicans were more sensitive to political climate than Democrats. As predicted, Republicans also were more politically polarized than Democrats. Taken together, the findings indicate that, compared to Democrats, Republicans are more apt to self-identify in political terms, and core aspects of their subjective well-being are more easily affected by the outcome of political events. PMID:24901253

  20. Social Media Use and Online Political Participation Among College Students During the US Election 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongwei “Chris” Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A total of 4,556 US college students were surveyed immediately after Election 2012 to investigate what social media–related psychological and behavioral factors predicted their online political participation. Structural equation modeling and hierarchical multiple regression results showed that online social capital, political self-efficacy, and Facebook group participation were positive predictors of online political participation, while social trust did not directly influence online political participation. General political use of Facebook and Twitter was a positive predictor of online political participation; however, extensive Facebook and Twitter use was a negative predictor. Implications for research and political practice are discussed.

  1. Can Sarcopenia Quantified by Ultrasound of the Rectus Femoris Muscle Predict Adverse Outcome of Surgical Intensive Care Unit Patients and Frailty? A Prospective, Observational Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Noomi; Murthy, Sushila; Tainter, Christopher R.; Lee, Jarone; Richard, Kathleen; Fintelmann, Florian J.; Grabitz, Stephanie D.; Timm, Fanny Pauline; Levi, Benjamin; Kurth, Tobias; Eikermann, Matthias

    2016-01-01

    Objective To compare sarcopenia and frailty for outcome prediction in surgical intensive care unit (SICU) patients. Background Frailty has been associated with adverse outcomes and describes a status of muscle weakness and decreased physiological reserve leading to increased vulnerability to stressors. However, frailty assessment depends on patient cooperation. Sarcopenia can be quantified by ultrasound and the predictive value of sarcopenia at SICU admission for adverse outcome has not been defined. Methods We conducted a prospective, observational study of SICU patients. Sarcopenia was diagnosed by ultrasound measurement of rectus femoris cross-sectional area. Frailty was diagnosed by the Frailty Index Questionnaire based on 50 variables. Relationship between variables and outcomes was assessed by multivariable regression analysis NCT02270502. Results Sarcopenia and frailty were quantified in 102 patients and observed in 43.1% and 38.2%, respectively. Sarcopenia predicted adverse discharge disposition (discharge to nursing facility or in-hospital mortality, odds ratio 7.49; 95% confidence interval 1.47–38.24; P = 0.015) independent of important clinical covariates, as did frailty (odds ratio 8.01; 95% confidence interval 1.82–35.27; P = 0.006); predictive ability did not differ between sarcopenia and frailty prediction model, reflected by a likelihood ratio of χ2 = 21.74 versus 23.44, respectively, and a net reclassification improvement (NRI) of −0.02 (P = 0.87). Sarcopenia and frailty predicted hospital length of stay and the frailty model had a moderately better predictive accuracy for this outcome. Conclusions Bedside diagnosis of sarcopenia by ultrasound predicts adverse discharge disposition in SICU patients equally well as frailty. Sarcopenia assessed by ultrasound may be utilized as rapid beside modality for risk stratification of critically ill patients. PMID:26655919

  2. Early prediction of intensive care unit-acquired weakness using easily available parameters: a prospective observational study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wieske, Luuk; Witteveen, Esther; Verhamme, Camiel; Dettling-Ihnenfeldt, Daniela S.; van der Schaaf, Marike; Schultz, Marcus J.; van Schaik, Ivo N.; Horn, Janneke

    2014-01-01

    An early diagnosis of Intensive Care Unit-acquired weakness (ICU-AW) using muscle strength assessment is not possible in most critically ill patients. We hypothesized that development of ICU-AW can be predicted reliably two days after ICU admission, using patient characteristics, early available

  3. Digital Trace Data in the Study of Public Opinion : An Indicator of Attention Toward Politics Rather Than Political Support

    OpenAIRE

    Jungherr, Andreas; Schoen, Harald; Posegga, Oliver; Jürgens, Pascal

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we examine the relationship between metrics documenting politics-related Twitter activity with election results and trends in opinion polls. Various studies have proposed the possibility of inferring public opinion based on digital trace data collected on Twitter and even the possibility to predict election results based on aggregates of mentions of political actors. Yet, a systematic attempt at a validation of Twitter as an indicator for political support is lacking. In this...

  4. Integrating data from randomized controlled trials and observational studies to predict the response to pregabalin in patients with painful diabetic peripheral neuropathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joe Alexander

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background More patient-specific medical care is expected as more is learned about variations in patient responses to medical treatments. Analytical tools enable insights by linking treatment responses from different types of studies, such as randomized controlled trials (RCTs and observational studies. Given the importance of evidence from both types of studies, our goal was to integrate these types of data into a single predictive platform to help predict response to pregabalin in individual patients with painful diabetic peripheral neuropathy (pDPN. Methods We utilized three pivotal RCTs of pregabalin (398 North American patients and the largest observational study of pregabalin (3159 German patients. We implemented a hierarchical cluster analysis to identify patient clusters in the Observational Study to which RCT patients could be matched using the coarsened exact matching (CEM technique, thereby creating a matched dataset. We then developed autoregressive moving average models (ARMAXs to estimate weekly pain scores for pregabalin-treated patients in each cluster in the matched dataset using the maximum likelihood method. Finally, we validated ARMAX models using Observational Study patients who had not matched with RCT patients, using t tests between observed and predicted pain scores. Results Cluster analysis yielded six clusters (287–777 patients each with the following clustering variables: gender, age, pDPN duration, body mass index, depression history, pregabalin monotherapy, prior gabapentin use, baseline pain score, and baseline sleep interference. CEM yielded 1528 unique patients in the matched dataset. The reduction in global imbalance scores for the clusters after adding the RCT patients (ranging from 6 to 63% depending on the cluster demonstrated that the process reduced the bias of covariates in five of the six clusters. ARMAX models of pain score performed well (R 2 : 0.85–0.91; root mean square errors: 0.53–0

  5. Student life - Making politics matter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCullough, Siobhan

    2014-12-02

    'What has politics got to do with nursing?' This is a question I hear often as a lecturer in nursing with a specialist interest in politics, as is the comment: 'I did not come into nursing to learn about politics.'

  6. The Use of the Framingham Equation to Predict Myocardial Infarctions in HIV-infected Patients: Comparison with Observed Events in the D:A:D Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Law, MG; Friis-Møller, Nina; El-Sadr, WM

    2006-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The D:A:D (Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs) Study, a prospective observational study on a cohort of 23 468 patients with HIV infection, indicated that the incidence of myocardial infarction (MI) increased by 26% per year of exposure to combination antiretroviral...... treatment (CART). However, it remains unclear whether the observed increase in the rate of MI in this population can be attributed to changes in conventional cardiovascular risk factors. OBJECTIVE: To compare the number of MIs observed among participants in the D:A:D Study with the number predicted...... by assuming that conventional cardiovascular risk equations apply to patients with HIV infection. METHODS: The Framingham equation, a conventional cardiovascular risk algorithm, was applied to individual patient data in the D:A:D Study to predict rates of MI by duration of CART. A series of sensitivity...

  7. Derivation and validation of a clinical prediction rule for delirium in patients admitted to a medical ward: an observational study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Juan Antonio; Belastegui, Ana; Basabe, Iban; Goicoechea, Xabier; Aguirre, Cristina; Lizeaga, Nerea; Urreta, Iratxe; Emparanza, Jose Ignacio

    2012-01-01

    Objectives To develop and validate a simple clinical prediction rule, based on variables easily measurable at admission, to identify patients at high risk of developing delirium during their hospital stay on an internal medicine ward. Design Prospective study of two cohorts of patients admitted between 1 May and 30 June 2008 (derivation cohort), and between 1 May and 30 June 2009 (validation cohort). Setting A tertiary hospital in Donostia-Gipuzkoa (Spain). Participants In total 397 patients participated in the study. The mean age and incidence of delirium were 75.9 years and 13%, respectively, in the derivation cohort, and 75.8 years and 25% in the validation cohort. Main outcome measures The predictive variables analysed and finally included in the rule were: being aged 85 years old or older, being dependent in five or more activities of daily living, and taking two or more psychotropic drugs (antipsychotics, benzodiazepines, antidepressants, anticonvulsant and/or antidementia drugs). The variable of interest was delirium as defined by the short Confusion Assessment Method, which assesses four characteristics: acute onset and fluctuating course, inattention, disorganised thinking and altered level of consciousness. Results We developed a rule in which the individual risk of delirium is obtained by adding one point for each criterion met (age≥85, high level of dependence, and being on psychotropic medication). The result is considered positive if the score is ≥1. The rule accuracy was: sensitivity=93.4% (95% CI 85.5% to 97.2%), specificity=60.6% (95% CI 54.1% to 66.8%), positive predictive value=44.4% (95% CI 36.9% to 52.1%) and negative predictive value=96.5% (95% CI: 92% to 98.5%). The area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.85 for the validation cohort. Conclusions The presence or absence of any of the three predictive factors (age≥85, high level of dependence and psychotropic medication) allowed us to classify patients on

  8. The Journey Metaphor in Mediatized Political Discourse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dávid Gyula

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The present paper will analyse manifestations of the journey metaphor from a critical discourse analytical perspective in order to observe how the journey metaphor is used as a discourse strategy in mediatized political speeches and interviews whereby political actors manipulate the second-frame interactional participants (the audience into sharing a (spurious sense of solidarity with them. There are three hypotheses that will be tested in the course of the analysis: the first is that a wide-variety of realjourney elements are exploited for the political metaphor of journey, and there is a concrete correspondence between journey vehicles and political scenarios. The second hypothesis is that journey metaphors that are used in political speeches, celebrity interviews and confrontational political interviews are of different types and complexity. The third hypothesis is that the manipulative intent behind the use of metaphors is exposed in the latter types of mediatized political discourse to varying degrees as a result of the different degrees of pragmatic accountability adhered to in the two subgenres. We argue that the first two hypotheses are confirmed on the basis of the qualitative analysis presented in the paper, whereas the third hypothesis is not borne out by the data.

  9. European welfare regimes: Political orientations versus poverty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josifidis Kosta

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This inquiry analyzes how political orientations shape welfare states and labour market institutions when seeking to reduce poverty. In order to identify effects of these two key variables, we conduct a panel regression analysis that includes two poverty measures: poverty rates before and after social spending. This inquiry considers 14 EU countries, and in the period from 1995 to 2008, which are grouped according to welfare state regimes. We consider Social Democratic, Corporatist, Mediterranean and Liberal welfare state regimes. Panel regression results indicate that political orientation engenders no significant statistically measurable effects on poverty rates before social spending. Effects register, however, as significant when considering poverty rates after social spending. With respect to the first set of results, we advance two key explanations. First, we note a longer period of time is necessary in order to observe actual effects of political orientation on market generated poverty. Second, political parties with their respective programs do not register as influential enough to solve social problems related to income distribution when taken alone. Influences register as indirect and are expressed through changes in employment rates and social spending. The second set of results support the hypothesis that a selected political regime does indeed contribute to poverty reduction. In sum, political orientation and political regime does indeed affect poverty through welfare state institutions, as well as through labour market institutions.

  10. Hospitality, Tourism, and Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen W. Litvin

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Government policy has a significant impact on the hospitality and tourism industry, but it is unclear if political leaders fully understand this economic sector when crafting policies. This article offers new research about the direct involvement of industry practitioners in the political process, by analyzing the backgrounds of legislators in the six New England states. The data indicate that only 3% of these legislators have current or former careers related to hospitality and tourism. The author suggests that practitioners should seek election to political office, to better influence government policy.

  11. A Political Innovator?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tang, Yi; Lin, Yu; Andersen, Torben Juul

    2016-01-01

    Political networking is frequently used in transition economies to gain superior performance. This study draws on upper echelons theory (UET) and the resource-based view (RBV) to analyze the relationship between political networking and firm innovation moderated by the core self-evaluation (CSE......) of the CEO. Based on a sample of 381 manufacturing firms extracted from the Entrepreneurs Survey System of Chinese CEOs with 2014 data from the Jiangsu province, the study finds that political networking is positively related to explorative and exploitative innovation but negatively moderated by the CSE...

  12. Essays in political economy

    OpenAIRE

    Mavridis, Christos

    2016-01-01

    This thesis consists of five essays in the field of political economy. The first part of the thesis includes three essays covering various aspects of the political economy of globalization and economic reforms, which are linked in several ways. The second part of the thesis includes two essays on the political economy of development in India. The aim of this introductory section is to give a brief and non-technical overview of the essays, as well as to explain the links between them. The disc...

  13. Private political archives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waldemar Chorążyczewski

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available "Private political archives" are understood by me as all acts collected intently by a private person. These acts are connected with the person's participation in political life and gathered in order to be used in public activity as the source of argumentation and information about factors and mechanisms of political processes. Private political archives of the first half of the XVI century were mainly created by royal servants, often with reference to their job duties. These duties could inspire to collect political acts for private purposes. During the reign of Sigismund Augustus, archives of gentry activists were developed to small extent and they mainly focused on parliamentary life. Private political archives were created outside the executionist movement, namely in the community gathered around the royal court. After 1572, Crown and Lithuanian magnates greatly influenced the creation of political archives. Archives of lesser gentry, scarce and poor, did not disappear completely. However, they became difficult for identification. Therefore, developmental process concerned exclusively documentary "treasure troves" created by magnates. They had the financial means and possibilities to create truly valuable political archives. The same as in the previous period the dynamisms of executionist movement was reflected in political archival documentation, now the creation of patronage system and clientele, or traditionally understood magnate oligarchy, (depending on the point of view corresponded best to archives development. The heritage of previous generations was the treasure trove of patterns and solutions. However, this trove was used selectively, on one hand giving up patterns and rights that were uncomfortable, and, on the other, giving the value of precedence to unexpected acts that gained more importance or even new content in changed political conditions. The application of interpretation principle raised interest in old acts and patterns

  14. Observational study to calculate addictive risk to opioids: a validation study of a predictive algorithm to evaluate opioid use disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brenton A

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Ashley Brenton,1 Steven Richeimer,2,3 Maneesh Sharma,4 Chee Lee,1 Svetlana Kantorovich,1 John Blanchard,1 Brian Meshkin1 1Proove Biosciences, Irvine, CA, 2Keck school of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, 3Departments of Anesthesiology and Psychiatry, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, 4Interventional Pain Institute, Baltimore, MD, USA Background: Opioid abuse in chronic pain patients is a major public health issue, with rapidly increasing addiction rates and deaths from unintentional overdose more than quadrupling since 1999. Purpose: This study seeks to determine the predictability of aberrant behavior to opioids using a comprehensive scoring algorithm incorporating phenotypic risk factors and neuroscience-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs. Patients and methods: The Proove Opioid Risk (POR algorithm determines the predictability of aberrant behavior to opioids using a comprehensive scoring algorithm incorporating phenotypic risk factors and neuroscience-associated SNPs. In a validation study with 258 subjects with diagnosed opioid use disorder (OUD and 650 controls who reported using opioids, the POR successfully categorized patients at high and moderate risks of opioid misuse or abuse with 95.7% sensitivity. Regardless of changes in the prevalence of opioid misuse or abuse, the sensitivity of POR remained >95%. Conclusion: The POR correctly stratifies patients into low-, moderate-, and high-risk categories to appropriately identify patients at need for additional guidance, monitoring, or treatment changes. Keywords: opioid use disorder, addiction, personalized medicine, pharmacogenetics, genetic testing, predictive algorithm

  15. Map-based prediction of organic carbon in headwater streams improved by downstream observations from the river outlet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temnerud, J.; von Brömssen, C.; Fölster, J.; Buffam, I.; Andersson, J.-O.; Nyberg, L.; Bishop, K.

    2016-01-01

    In spite of the great abundance and ecological importance of headwater streams, managers are usually limited by a lack of information about water chemistry in these headwaters. In this study we test whether river outlet chemistry can be used as an additional source of information to improve the prediction of the chemistry of upstream headwaters (size interquartile range (IQR)) of headwater stream TOC for a given catchment, based on a large number of candidate variables including sub-catchment characteristics from GIS, and measured river chemistry at the catchment outlet. The best candidate variables from the PLS models were then used in hierarchical linear mixed models (MM) to model TOC in individual headwater streams. Three predictor variables were consistently selected for the MM calibration sets: (1) proportion of forested wetlands in the sub-catchment (positively correlated with headwater stream TOC), (2) proportion of lake surface cover in the sub-catchment (negatively correlated with headwater stream TOC), and (3) river outlet TOC (positively correlated with headwater stream TOC). Including river outlet TOC improved predictions, with 5-15 % lower prediction errors than when using map information alone. Thus, data on water chemistry measured at river outlets offer information which can complement GIS-based modelling of headwater stream chemistry.

  16. Eastern European Political Socialization Modeling Research: A Literature Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Florela Voinea

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents empirical modeling research on political socialization of the citizens in the new Eastern European democracies. The political socialization issue offers a comparative perspective over the modeling methodologies in analytical paradigms. Eastern European political culture research has revealed features of the electoral behavior and political participation which can be identified in different degrees in all the new democracies in the area: passivity with respect to political activity of parties, elites and institutions, political apathy or lack of reaction to anti-democratic actions, skepticism or distrust in institutions, scarce participation to social movements. Several authors explain the actual political behavior of the Eastern European citizens’ and their low social and political involvement by the (political culture heritage of the communist regimes in which they lived for a long time, and which keeps shaping their political attitudes towards the state, civil society, government and institutions. Research issues in the analysis of political participation are traditionally based on statistics analyses of empirical evidence coming from public surveys. However, scarcity ofempirical data from the communist periode with regard to (political socialization, values and beliefs represent a major obstacle towards a better understanding of the historical roots of current behaviors and attitudes. Scarcity of observational data might be overcome by computational and simulation modeling.

  17. OGLE-2016-BLG-0168 Binary Microlensing Event: Prediction and Confirmation of the Microlens Parallax Effect from Space-based Observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, I.-G.; Yee, J. C.; Jung, Y. K. [Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Udalski, A.; Skowron, J.; Mróz, P.; Soszyński, I.; Poleski, R.; Szymański, M. K.; Kozłowski, S.; Pietrukowicz, P.; Ulaczyk, K.; Pawlak, M. [Warsaw University Observatory, Al. Ujazdowskie 4,00-478 Warszawa (Poland); Novati, S. Calchi [IPAC, Mail Code 100-22, California Institute of Technology, 1200 E. California Boulevard, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Han, C. [Department of Physics, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju 371-763 (Korea, Republic of); Albrow, M. D. [University of Canterbury, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8020 (New Zealand); Gould, A. [Department of Astronomy, Ohio State University, 140 W. 18th Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Chung, S.-J.; Hwang, K.-H.; Ryu, Y.-H. [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, 776 Daedeokdae-ro, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon 34055 (Korea, Republic of); Collaboration: OGLE Collaboration; KMTNet Group; Spitzer Team; and others

    2017-11-01

    The microlens parallax is a crucial observable for conclusively identifying the nature of lens systems in microlensing events containing or composed of faint (even dark) astronomical objects such as planets, neutron stars, brown dwarfs, and black holes. With the commencement of a new era of microlensing in collaboration with space-based observations, the microlens parallax can be routinely measured. In addition, space-based observations can provide opportunities to verify the microlens parallax measured from ground-only observations and to find a unique solution to the lensing light-curve analysis. Furthermore, since most space-based observations cannot cover the full light curves of lensing events, it is also necessary to verify the reliability of the information extracted from fragmentary space-based light curves. We conduct a test based on the microlensing event OGLE-2016-BLG-0168, created by a binary lens system consisting of almost equal mass M-dwarf stars, to demonstrate that it is possible to verify the microlens parallax and to resolve degeneracies using the space-based light curve even though the observations are fragmentary. Since space-based observatories will frequently produce fragmentary light curves due to their short observing windows, the methodology of this test will be useful for next-generation microlensing experiments that combine space-based and ground-based collaboration.

  18. Aespoe HRL - Geoscientific evaluation 1997/4. Results from pre-investigation and detailed site characterization. Comparison of predictions and observations. Hydrogeology, groundwater chemistry and transport of solutes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rhen, I.; Gustafson, Gunnar; Wikberg, P.

    1997-06-01

    The pre-investigations for the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory were started in 1986 and involved extensive field measurements, aimed at characterizing the rock formations with regard to geology, hydrogeology, hydrochemistry and rock mechanics. Prior to the excavation in 1990 predictions were made for the excavation phase concerning: geology, ground water flow and chemistry, transport of solutes and mechanical stability. This report presents a comparison between these predictions and the observations made during the excavation. Also, investigation methods for the 700-2874 m sections of the tunnel are evaluated

  19. Falls and fear of falling predict future falls and related injuries in ambulatory individuals with spinal cord injury: a longitudinal observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivien Jørgensen

    2017-04-01

    Conclusion: Ambulatory individuals have a high risk of falling and of fall-related injuries. Fall history, fear of falling and walking speed could predict recurrent falls and injurious falls. Further studies with larger samples are needed to validate these findings. [Jørgensen V, Butler Forslund E, Opheim A, Franzén E, Wahman K, Hultling C, Seiger Å, Ståhle A, Stanghelle JK, Roaldsen KS (2017 Falls and fear of falling predict future falls and related injuries in ambulatory individuals with spinal cord injury: a longitudinal observational study. Journal of Physiotherapy 63: 108–113

  20. Political Integration of Hezbollah into Lebanese Politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-01

    southern interior. 14 Once displaced, the new Shi’a areas of concentration were, “in the infertile zones of the Jebel Amil in the south and the Bekaa...valley.”22 The fact that they were pushed to rugged, infertile and arid lands denote a pattern of economic dislocation that continued over the...political and social subjugation of the Lebanese Shi’a culminated to form a powerfully resonant psychological “frame” upon which Hezbollah could build a

  1. Observations and student perceptions of the quality of preservice teachers’ teaching behaviour : Construct representation and predictive quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maulana, Ridwan; Helms-Lorenz, Michelle

    2016-01-01

    Observations and student perceptions are recognised as important tools for examining teaching behaviour, but little is known about whether both perspectives share similar construct representations and how both perspectives link with student academic outcomes. The present study compared the construct

  2. A comparison of predicted and observed turbulent wind fields present in natural and internal wind park environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelly, N D; Wright, A D

    1991-10-01

    This paper assesses the accuracy of simulated wind fields for both the natural flow and that within a wind park environment. The simulated fields are compared with the observed ones in both the time and frequency domains. Actual measurements of the wind fields and the derived kinematic scaling parameters upwind and downwind of a large San Gorgonio Pass wind park are used. The deviations in the modeled wind field from the observed are discussed. 10 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.

  3. Assessing the Impact of Surface and Upper-Air Observations on the Forecast Skill of the ACCESS Numerical Weather Prediction Model over Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei Soldatenko

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s in situ observations (land and sea surface observations, upper air observations by radiosondes, pilot balloons, wind profilers, and aircraft observations on the short-term forecast skill provided by the ACCESS (Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator global numerical weather prediction (NWP system is evaluated using an adjoint-based method. This technique makes use of the adjoint perturbation forecast model utilized within the 4D-Var assimilation system, and is able to calculate the individual impact of each assimilated observation in a cycling NWP system. The results obtained show that synoptic observations account for about 60% of the 24-h forecast error reduction, with the remainder accounted for by aircraft (12.8%, radiosondes (10.5%, wind profilers (3.9%, pilot balloons (2.8%, buoys (1.7% and ships (1.2%. In contrast, the largest impact per observation is from buoys and aircraft. Overall, all observation types have a positive impact on the 24-h forecast skill. Such results help to support the decision-making process regarding the evolution of the observing network, particularly at the national level. Consequently, this 4D-Var-based approach has great potential as a tool to assist the design and running of an efficient and effective observing network.

  4. Understanding political market orientation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ormrod, Robert P.; Henneberg, Stephan C.

    influences of such behavior. The study includes structural equation modeling to investigate several propositions. While the results show that political parties need to focus on several different aspects of market-oriented behavior, especially using an internal and external orientation as cultural antecedents......This article develops a conceptual framework and measurement model of political market orientation that consists of attitudinal and behavioural constructs. The article reports on perceived relationships among different behavioral aspects of political market orientation and the attitudinal......, a more surprising result is the inconclusive effect of a voter orientation on market-oriented behaviours. The article discusses the findings in the context of the existing literature in political marketing and commercial market orientation....

  5. Terrorism and Political Parties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bourne, Angela

    against established authorities. I adopt a ‘discursive institutionalist’ approach and argue that decisions to ban the political parties linked to the IRA and ETA can be explained at least in part by the dominance of a ‘discourse of intolerance’ in which proscription is seen predominantly as a problem......In the paper I address the empirical puzzle arising from different responses by political authorities in Spain and the UK to the existence of political parties integrated in the terrorist groups Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA, Basque Homeland and Freedom) and the Irish Republican Army (IRA). More...... specifically I address the question of why the radical Basque nationalist political party Herri Batasuna and its successors, and the republican parties Sinn Féin and the Republican Clubs, enjoyed periods of legality and illegality during periods in which they all were involved in (separate) violent campaigns...

  6. The Politics of Universalism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Karen-Margrethe

    2013-01-01

    ’ of globalization. Historically speaking, human rights are closely connected with globalization, but at the same time, they raise a question about the foundation of globalization: is there a universal community or only economic and political power-relations? The article argues that the political use of human rights...... discourses is split down the middle: it serves both as a critique of power and as an extension of power, and the disclosure of this split helps us understand the inner politics of human rights. The article discusses the trial in Valladolid in 1550 when the rights of the barbarian Indians of America were put......This article investigates the political function of human rights in the 16th Century in Spain just after the conquest of America. It claims that the study of this period of early globalization is relevant for the understanding of the function of human rights discourses to day, at the ‘end...

  7. IDEOLOGY BEHIND POLITENESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IGAG Sosiowati

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Politicians are considered to be the ones whose honesty is doubtful. This is proven by the fact that there are a lot of negative perception about them. Most of the people know that their ideology is power. In public discussion they often violate or apply politeness with the purpose to get as much power as possible. How polite they are in using the language will be measured by the combination of Grice’s maxims of cooperative principles (1975 and Leech’s mxims of politeness principle. Through analysing the language used by politicians in the talk show Today;s Dialogue, it was found that there were violation and application of politeness in their effort to realize their ideology, which is power.

  8. The Politics of Weeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tillman, Hope N.

    1988-01-01

    Reviews the literature that deals with the political ramifications of weeding material from academic library collections and the need to involve users and other libraries within the institution in the decision process. (14 references) (CLB)

  9. Political State Boundary (National)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — State boundaries with political limit - boundaries extending into the ocean (NTAD). The TIGER/Line Files are shapefiles and related database files (.dbf) that are an...

  10. Political communication research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Rasmus Kleis

    2014-01-01

    The rise of new media and the broader set of social changes they are part of present political communication research with new challenges and new opportunities at a time when many think the field is at an intellectual impasse (e.g., Bennett & Iyengar, 2008). In this article, I argue that parts...... of the field’s problems are rooted in the way in which political communication research has developed since the 1960s. In this period, the field has moved from being interdisciplinary and mixed-methods to being more homogenous and narrowly focused, based primarily on ideas developed in social psychology...... of political communication processes and questions concerning the symbolic, institutional, and technological nature of these processes—especially during a time of often rapid change. To overcome this problem, I argue that the field of political communication research should re-engage with the rest of media...

  11. Political conversations on Facebook

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Mads P.

    2016-01-01

    Political conversations are according to theories on deliberative democracy essential to well-functioning democracies. Traditionally these conversations have taken place in face-to-face settings, in e.g. party meetings and town meetings. However, social media such as Facebook and Twitter offers new...... possibilities for online political conversations between citizens and politicians. This paper examines the presence on Facebook and Twitter of Members of the Danish national Parliament, the Folketing, and focusses on a quantitative mapping of the political conversation activities taking place in the threads...... following Facebook posts from Danish Members of Parliament (MPs). The paper shows that, in comparison with previous findings from other countries, Danish MPs have a relatively high degree of engagement in political conversations with citizens on Facebook – and that a large number of citizens follow MPs...

  12. [Medical politics. Graffiti].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fugelli, P

    1991-03-20

    If doctors want to play a role in future health promotion, they have to leave their citadel, and come closer to life and society. Modern preventive medicine cannot be dissociated from basic political, cultural and religious values and processes. Genetic counseling and engineering, influencing lifestyle, community intervention and changing the health culture among patients and doctors all require ethical and political competence rather than traditional medical skills. The author advocates the development of a new discipline, medical politics, with two major commitments: -To define basic health rights -To study the public health consequences of political systems and decisions. In a polemic and provocative style the article enlightens the potentials and dangers associated with an expanded concept of preventive medicine.

  13. Psychosocial and nonclinical factors predicting hospital utilization in patients of a chronic disease management program: a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Mark W; Weiland, Tracey J; Phillips, Georgina A

    2015-01-01

    Psychosocial factors such as marital status (odds ratio, 3.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.43-8.69; P = .006) and nonclinical factors such as outpatient nonattendances (odds ratio, 2.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-5.23; P = .013) and referrals made (odds ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.35; P = .003) predict hospital utilization for patients in a chronic disease management program. Along with optimizing patients' clinical condition by prescribed medical guidelines and supporting patient self-management, addressing psychosocial and nonclinical issues are important in attempting to avoid hospital utilization for people with chronic illnesses.

  14. Size and Political Participation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassen, David Dreyer; Serritzlew, Søren

    This paper uses a novel research design to re-examine the causal effect of jurisdiction size on political participation. Two waves of municipal consolidation in Denmark, in 1970 and in 2005, provide exogenous variation in jurisdiction size.......This paper uses a novel research design to re-examine the causal effect of jurisdiction size on political participation. Two waves of municipal consolidation in Denmark, in 1970 and in 2005, provide exogenous variation in jurisdiction size....

  15. Persuasion in Politics

    OpenAIRE

    Kevin M. Murphy; Andrei Shleifer

    2004-01-01

    We present a model of the creation of social networks, such as political parties, trade unions, religious coalitions, or political action committees, through discussion and mutual persuasion among their members. The key idea is that people are influenced by those inside their network, but not by those outside. Once created, networks can be “rented out” to politicians who seek votes and support for their initiatives and ideas, which may have little to do with network members' core beliefs. In ...

  16. Building the Body Politic

    OpenAIRE

    Steffen Hertog

    2004-01-01

    Steffen Hertog’s article argues that Saudi Arabian regime has embarked upon the modernization of its authoritarian rule by attempting to institutionalize important aspects of the political debate. The way this is being done, he proposes, is best captured with the time-honoured concept of corporatism. It helps to bring the kingdom back into the framework of comparative politics, testing and giving new nuances to familiar concepts.

  17. Hospitality, Tourism, and Politics

    OpenAIRE

    Stephen W. Litvin

    2012-01-01

    Government policy has a significant impact on the hospitality and tourism industry, but it is unclear if political leaders fully understand this economic sector when crafting policies. This article offers new research about the direct involvement of industry practitioners in the political process, by analyzing the backgrounds of legislators in the six New England states. The data indicate that only 3% of these legislators have current or former careers related to hospitality and tourism. The ...

  18. Globalization and political structure

    OpenAIRE

    Gancia, Gino A.; Ponzetto, Giacomo A. M.; Ventura, Jaume

    2017-01-01

    The first wave of globalization (1830-1914) witnessed a decline in the number of countries from 125 to 54. Political consolidation was often achieved through war and conquest. The second wave of globalization (1950-present) has led instead to an increase in the number of countries to a record high of more than 190. Political fragmentation has been accompanied by the creation of peaceful structures of supranational governance. This paper develops a theoretical model of the interaction between ...

  19. Nonpolitical images evoke neural predictors of political ideology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Woo-Young; Kishida, Kenneth T; Gu, Xiaosi; Lohrenz, Terry; Harvey, Ann; Alford, John R; Smith, Kevin B; Yaffe, Gideon; Hibbing, John R; Dayan, Peter; Montague, P Read

    2014-11-17

    Political ideologies summarize dimensions of life that define how a person organizes their public and private behavior, including their attitudes associated with sex, family, education, and personal autonomy. Despite the abstract nature of such sensibilities, fundamental features of political ideology have been found to be deeply connected to basic biological mechanisms that may serve to defend against environmental challenges like contamination and physical threat. These results invite the provocative claim that neural responses to nonpolitical stimuli (like contaminated food or physical threats) should be highly predictive of abstract political opinions (like attitudes toward gun control and abortion). We applied a machine-learning method to fMRI data to test the hypotheses that brain responses to emotionally evocative images predict individual scores on a standard political ideology assay. Disgusting images, especially those related to animal-reminder disgust (e.g., mutilated body), generate neural responses that are highly predictive of political orientation even though these neural predictors do not agree with participants' conscious rating of the stimuli. Images from other affective categories do not support such predictions. Remarkably, brain responses to a single disgusting stimulus were sufficient to make accurate predictions about an individual subject's political ideology. These results provide strong support for the idea that fundamental neural processing differences that emerge under the challenge of emotionally evocative stimuli may serve to structure political beliefs in ways formerly unappreciated. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. The Political Parties and Political Participation in Rivers State, Nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Political Parties and Political Participation in Rivers State, Nigeria: A Case Study of 2015 General Elections. Goddey Wilson. Abstract. The study reviewed the activities of the political parties and its impact on voters' participation in the political activities in Rivers State. In pursuit of this objective, the study generated ...

  1. The Effects of Majoring in Political Science on Political Efficacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominguez, Casey B. K.; Smith, Keith W.; Williams, J. Michael

    2017-01-01

    This study tests, and finds support, for the hypotheses that a student who majors in political science will have stronger feelings of political competence and will be more willing to engage in hypothetical political actions than two peer groups: (a) those who major in other fields and (b) those who show an interest in politics but have not studied…

  2. Emotion regulation as the foundation of political attitudes: does reappraisal decrease support for conservative policies?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jooa Julia Lee

    Full Text Available Cognitive scientists, behavior geneticists, and political scientists have identified several ways in which emotions influence political attitudes, and psychologists have shown that emotion regulation can have an important causal effect on physiology, cognition, and subjective experience. However, no work to date explores the possibility that emotion regulation may shape political ideology and attitudes toward policies. Here, we conduct four studies that investigate the role of a particular emotion regulation strategy--reappraisal in particular. Two observational studies show that individual differences in emotion regulation styles predict variation in political orientations and support for conservative policies. In the third study, we experimentally induce disgust as the target emotion to be regulated and show that use of reappraisal reduces the experience of disgust, thereby decreasing moral concerns associated with conservatism. In the final experimental study, we show that use of reappraisal successfully attenuates the relationship between trait-level disgust sensitivity and support for conservative policies. Our findings provide the first evidence of a critical link between emotion regulation and political attitudes.

  3. Emotion regulation as the foundation of political attitudes: does reappraisal decrease support for conservative policies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jooa Julia; Sohn, Yunkyu; Fowler, James H

    2013-01-01

    Cognitive scientists, behavior geneticists, and political scientists have identified several ways in which emotions influence political attitudes, and psychologists have shown that emotion regulation can have an important causal effect on physiology, cognition, and subjective experience. However, no work to date explores the possibility that emotion regulation may shape political ideology and attitudes toward policies. Here, we conduct four studies that investigate the role of a particular emotion regulation strategy--reappraisal in particular. Two observational studies show that individual differences in emotion regulation styles predict variation in political orientations and support for conservative policies. In the third study, we experimentally induce disgust as the target emotion to be regulated and show that use of reappraisal reduces the experience of disgust, thereby decreasing moral concerns associated with conservatism. In the final experimental study, we show that use of reappraisal successfully attenuates the relationship between trait-level disgust sensitivity and support for conservative policies. Our findings provide the first evidence of a critical link between emotion regulation and political attitudes.

  4. Prediction of Students’ Use and Acceptance of Clickers by Learning Approaches: A Cross-Sectional Observational Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelvin Wan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The student response system (a.k.a clickers had been widely used in classrooms for various pedagogical purposes these years. However, few of the studies examine students learning approaches toward both technology and engagement. The present study adopted a cross-sectional study method to investigate the relationship between students’ user acceptance of clickers, learning approaches, and general engagement in the clicker classes. A group of 3371 university students were investigated by an online questionnaire that contained with Unified Theory of Use and Acceptance of Technology, Study Process Questionnaire, and National Survey of Student Engagement across a two-semester span in 2015 and 2016. A regression analysis had been adopted to examine the relationship between those variables. Results indicated that a deep learning approach significantly predicted all user acceptance domains towards using clickers and significantly predicted several engagement domains such as collaborative learning and reflective and integrative learning. We concluded that deep learners tend to share a constructive attitude toward using clickers, especially when their peers are also using the clickers. While deep learners prefer integration of knowledge and skills from various sources and experiences, we hypothesize that their willingness to integrate clicker activities in their learning process stems from seeing clickers as a medium for consolidation in the learning process. Future research is, therefore, necessary to provide more detailed evidence of the characteristic of deep learners on the qualitative arm or in a way of mixed research method.

  5. Forgetting the best when predicting the worst: Preliminary observations on neural circuit function in adolescent social anxiety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna M. Jarcho

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Social anxiety disorder typically begins in adolescence, a sensitive period for brain development, when increased complexity and salience of peer relationships requires novel forms of social learning. Disordered social learning in adolescence may explain how brain dysfunction promotes social anxiety. Socially anxious adolescents (n = 15 and adults (n = 19 and non-anxious adolescents (n = 24 and adults (n = 32 predicted, then received, social feedback from high and low-value peers while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI. A surprise recall task assessed memory biases for feedback. Neural correlates of social evaluation prediction errors (PEs were assessed by comparing engagement to expected and unexpected positive and negative feedback. For socially anxious adolescents, but not adults or healthy participants of either age group, PEs elicited heightened striatal activity and negative fronto-striatal functional connectivity. This occurred selectively to unexpected positive feedback from high-value peers and corresponded with impaired memory for social feedback. While impaired memory also occurred in socially-anxious adults, this impairment was unrelated to brain-based PE activity. Thus, social anxiety in adolescence may relate to altered neural correlates of PEs that contribute to impaired learning about social feedback. Small samples necessitate replication. Nevertheless, results suggest that the relationship between learning and fronto-striatal function may attenuate as development progresses.

  6. Comparison of Wind Speeds and Temperatures Simulated by the Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System with Those observed at AWSs in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    KIM, D. J.; Kim, J.

    2017-12-01

    In this study, the characteristics of 10-m wind speeds and 2-m temperatures predicted by the local data assimilation and prediction system (LDAPS) in Korea meteorological administration (KMA) were analyzed by comparing those observed at automatic weather stations (AWSs). The LDAPS is a currently operating meteorology prediction system with the horizontal resolution of about 1.5 km. We classified the AWSs into four categories (urban, rural, coastal, and mountainous areas) based on the surrounding land-use types and locations of the AWSs and selected 30 AWSs for each category. For each category, we investigated how well the LDAPS predicted 10-m wind speeds and 2-m temperatures at the AWSs and statistically analyzed the LDAPS characteristics in predicting the meteorological variables. In the mountainous area, the LDAPS underestimated 2-m temperatures due to the resolution and coordinate system of the LDAPS. In the urban area, the LDAPS overestimated the 10-m wind speeds and underestimated the 2-m temperatures, implying that the LDAPS should consider the physical process to reflect the urban effects on wind speeds and temperatures in urban areas.

  7. In vitro observations and in silico predictions of xenoestrogen mixture effects in T47D-based receptor transactivation and proliferation assays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlotz, Nina; Kim, Gwang-Jin; Jäger, Stefan; Günther, Stefan; Lamy, Evelyn

    2017-12-01

    Within endocrine disruptor research, evaluation and interpretation of mixture effects and the predictive value for downstream responses still warrant more in-depth investigations. We used an estrogen receptor (ER)-mediated reporter gene assay (ER-CALUX®) and a cell proliferation assay (WST-1 assay), both based on the T47D breast cancer cell line, to test mixtures of heterogeneous xenoestrogens. Observed concentration-response curves were compared to those predicted by the concepts of concentration addition (CA), generalized concentration addition (GCA), and a novel full logistic model (FLM). CA performed better regarding mixture potency (EC50 values), whereas GCA was superior in predicting mixture efficacy (maximal response). In comparison, FLM proved to be highly suitable for in silico mixture effect prediction, combining advantages of both CA and GCA. The inter-assay comparison revealed that ER activation is not necessarily predictive for induction of cell proliferation. The results support the use of models like CA, GCA, or FLM in mixture effect evaluation. However, we conclude that reliable estimations regarding the disruptive potential of mixtures of endocrine active substances require an integrative approach considering more than one assay/endpoint to avoid misinterpretations. The formazan-based WST-1 proliferation assay might be a possible alternative to commonly used proliferation assays in endocrine disrupter research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Predictive value of vrk 1 and 2 for rectal adenocarcinoma response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy: a retrospective observational cohort study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puerto-Nevado, Laura del; Marin-Arango, Juan Pablo; Fernandez-Aceñero, Maria Jesus; Arroyo-Manzano, David; Martinez-Useros, Javier; Borrero-Palacios, Aurea; Rodriguez-Remirez, Maria; Cebrian, Arancha; Gomez del Pulgar, Teresa; Cruz-Ramos, Marlid; Carames, Cristina; Lopez-Botet, Begoña; Garcia-Foncillas, Jesús

    2016-01-01

    Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NACRT) followed by surgical resection is the standard therapy for locally advanced rectal cancer. However, tumor response following NACRT varies, ranging from pathologic complete response to disease progression. We evaluated the kinases VRK1 and VRK2, which are known to play multiple roles in cellular proliferation, cell cycle regulation, and carcinogenesis, and as such are potential predictors of tumor response and may aid in identifying patients who could benefit from NACRT. Sixty-seven pretreatment biopsies were examined for VRK1 and VRK2 expression using tissue microarrays. VRK1 and VRK2 Histoscores were combined by linear addition, resulting in a new variable designated as “composite score”, and the statistical significance of this variable was assessed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and area under the ROC curve (AUC) analysis were carried out to evaluate calibration and discrimination, respectively. A nomogram was also developed. Univariate logistic regression showed that tumor size as well as composite score were statistically significant. Both variables remained significant in the multivariate analysis, obtaining an OR for tumor size of 0.65 (95 % CI, 0.45–0.94; p = 0.021) and composite score of 1.24 (95 % CI, 1.07–1.48; p = 0.005). Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed an adequate model calibration (p = 0.630) and good discrimination was also achieved, AUC 0.79 (95 % CI, 0.68–0.90). This study provides novel data on the role of VRK1 and VRK2 in predicting tumor response to NACRT, and we propose a model with high predictive ability which could have a substantial impact on clinical management of locally advanced rectal cancer. The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12885-016-2574-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

  9. Political journalism in comparative perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albæk, E.; van Dalen, A.; Jebril, N.; de Vreese, C.H.

    2014-01-01

    Political journalism is often under fire. Conventional wisdom and much scholarly research suggest that journalists are cynics and political pundits. Political news is void of substance and overly focused on strategy and persons. Citizens do not learn from the news, are politically cynical, and are

  10. Has Political Science Ignored Religion?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettell, Steven

    2012-01-01

    A common complaint from political scientists involved in the study of religion is that religious issues have been largely overlooked by political science. Through a content analysis of leading political science and sociology journals from 2000 to 2010, this article considers the extent of this claim. The results show that political science…

  11. AXIOLOGICAL POTENTIAL OF POLITICAL NICKNAMES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SHUSTOVA IRINA NIKOLAEVNA

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the study of axiological possibilities of political nicknames. Political nicknames are very expressive. They can be personal and impersonal. Some nicknames lose their primary meaning to become a part of evaluative political lexis. In the language of politics nicknames often serve not only as means of assessment, but also as ideological weapon.

  12. Politics of inclusion and empowerment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, John; Siim, Birte

    The book examines the political and academic debates about the interplay between political, civil and social citizenship in US and Europe......The book examines the political and academic debates about the interplay between political, civil and social citizenship in US and Europe...

  13. Redistributive Politics in a Political Union

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Citi, Manuele; Justesen, Mogens Kamp

    One of the main functions of centralized budgets in federal and political unions is to act as an equalizing mechanism to support economic cohesion. This is also the case with the European Union’s budget, which operates as a redistributive mechanism that counteracts the cross-national and cross...... redistributive dynamics. We find that the relative wealth of a country vis-à-vis the other EU countries is a powerful factor in explaining its net fiscal position, but the change in the relative wealth of a country over time has little effect on its position as net contributor or net beneficiary. In addition, we...

  14. The ontology of "political" in political consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grünbaum, Niels Nolsøe; Stenger, Marianne

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to create a more complex and holistic understanding of the value system of the political consumer. A case study was undertaken were the unit of analysis constituted 12 high users of organic food products. The empirical data was analysed by utilizing Reynolds and Gutman’s ...... or services will enable companies to better understand consumers need and expectations. The latter being a necessity if confirmation of expectations, satisfaction, retention of customers and customer loyalty are goals of importance for the selling company....

  15. The politics of breastfeeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-01-01

    Contemporary social movements along with rapid economic development throughout the world have pushed women into the mainstream of cultural change, i.e., urbanization and westernization. These new circumstances have altered the feeding patterns of these women. What is happening to breastfeeding should be viewed as part of a larger, ongoing acculturation process. Childrearing practices have been forced to accommodate to the dramatic realities in women's lives, including migration to the cities, the loss of caring kin, and work outside the home. These are all difficult transitions which many poor women have had to deal with on their own. Consequently, they are forced to redefine their roles and to change their childrearing practices so that they can maximize their changes to survive. According to anthropological evidence, women act sensibly and rationally in their decision regarding breastfeeding despite rapid acculturation and severe economic constraints. "Lactation Review" has observed how women have invented new systems of help and support when they want to breastfeed, and it has reported how they have become adept at dealing with overcrowded health services. The Review has also described the lives of women living in poor urban areas who are often forced to give up breastfeeding much too soon. Little trust in these women exists among international health agencies, many western legislators, and an elite group of health professionals worldwide. Legislators, with antiformula as their cause, have built new constituencies. A new politics of breastfeeding has emerged. It thrives on scientific naivete, authoritarian legislation as well as single minded and simplistic solutions to the problems of poor mothers. As indicated by the conference participants at Copenhagen, women need to take back their right to decide what and when to feed their children.

  16. Clinical Risk Scoring Models for Prediction of Acute Kidney Injury after Living Donor Liver Transplantation: A Retrospective Observational Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mi Hye Park

    Full Text Available Acute kidney injury (AKI is a frequent complication of liver transplantation and is associated with increased mortality. We identified the incidence and modifiable risk factors for AKI after living-donor liver transplantation (LDLT and constructed risk scoring models for AKI prediction. We retrospectively reviewed 538 cases of LDLT. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate risk factors for the prediction of AKI as defined by the RIFLE criteria (RIFLE = risk, injury, failure, loss, end stage. Three risk scoring models were developed in the retrospective cohort by including all variables that were significant in univariate analysis, or variables that were significant in multivariate analysis by backward or forward stepwise variable selection. The risk models were validated by way of cross-validation. The incidence of AKI was 27.3% (147/538 and 6.3% (34/538 required postoperative renal replacement therapy. Independent risk factors for AKI by multivariate analysis of forward stepwise variable selection included: body-mass index >27.5 kg/m2 [odds ratio (OR 2.46, 95% confidence interval (CI 1.32-4.55], serum albumin 20 (OR 2.01, 95%CI 1.17-3.44, operation time >600 min (OR 1.81, 95%CI 1.07-3.06, warm ischemic time >40 min (OR 2.61, 95%CI 1.55-4.38, postreperfusion syndrome (OR 2.96, 95%CI 1.55-4.38, mean blood glucose during the day of surgery >150 mg/dl (OR 1.66, 95%CI 1.01-2.70, cryoprecipitate > 6 units (OR 4.96, 95%CI 2.84-8.64, blood loss/body weight >60 ml/kg (OR 4.05, 95%CI 2.28-7.21, and calcineurin inhibitor use without combined mycophenolate mofetil (OR 1.87, 95%CI 1.14-3.06. Our risk models performed better than did a previously reported score by Utsumi et al. in our study cohort. Doses of calcineurin inhibitor should be reduced by combined use of mycophenolate mofetil to decrease postoperative AKI. Prospective randomized trials are required to address whether artificial modification of hypoalbuminemia, hyperglycemia

  17. Persuasion Methods in Political Rhetoric

    OpenAIRE

    Diržanauskaitė, Rūta

    2006-01-01

    Rhetoric – the tool of politicians seeking to gain public support appeared and was developed in times of ancient Greece. In our days political rhetoric still is considered to be powerful tool in political arena and even survives kind of renascence. Politician as any other professional is obliged to be skilled user of methods of political rhetoric. Municipality elections are coming soon in Lithuania. Public discourse is going to be filled of different political speeches, examples of political ...

  18. Do psychosocial work conditions predict risk of disability pensioning? An analysis of register-based outcomes using pooled data on 40,554 observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clausen, Thomas; Burr, Hermann; Borg, Vilhelm

    2014-06-01

    To investigate whether high psychosocial job demands (quantitative demands and work pace) and low psychosocial job resources (influence at work and quality of leadership) predicted risk of disability pensioning among employees in four occupational groups--employees working with customers, employees working with clients, office workers and manual workers--in line with the propositions of the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model. Survey data from 40,554 individuals were fitted to the DREAM register containing information on payments of disability pension. Using multi-adjusted Cox regression, observations were followed in the DREAM-register to assess risk of disability pensioning. Average follow-up time was 5.9 years (SD=3.0). Low levels of influence at work predicted an increased risk of disability pensioning and medium levels of quantitative demands predicted a decreased risk of disability pensioning in the study population. We found significant interaction effects between job demands and job resources as combinations low quality of leadership and high job demands predicted the highest rate of disability pensioning. Further analyses showed some, but no statistically significant, differences between the four occupational groups in the associations between job demands, job resources and risk of disability pensioning. The study showed that psychosocial job demands and job resources predicted risk of disability pensioning. The direction of some of the observed associations countered the expectations of the JD-R model and the findings of the present study therefore imply that associations between job demands, job resources and adverse labour market outcomes are more complex than conceptualised in the JD-R model. © 2014 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

  19. Military and Political Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey I. Podberyozkin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Military-political issues is an important area of research work at MGIMO. The difference in this direction from the classical international specialization is that it is at the intersection of several disciplines: military science, military-technical and military-industrial as well as International Relations. A specialist in military and political issues should not only be an expert in the field of international relations and diplomacy, but also have a deep knowledge of military-technical issues to understand the basic trends in the development of scientific and technological progress and its impact on the balance of forces in the world. Global changes in the balance of power and the nature of the conflict, the emergence of new types of weapons are changing the basic methods and approaches to the art of war, which requires a science-based perspective on problem solving and multi-disciplinary approach in achieving the goals. Military and political studies allow us to understand how the development of military technology and military organization of the state affected by the political situation in the world, the national security of the country and its place in the system of international relations. Military-political research has been developing at MGIMO for a few decades. It laid down the basis for a scientific school of political-military studies. Its founding fathers were such prominent scholars of international affairs, as I.G. Usachyov, A.D. Nikonov, A.G. Arbatov, V.G. Baranovsky, V.M. Kulagin, A.N. Nikitin and other well-known experts. Their work covers a wide range of military and political issues, including the topics of arms control and disarmament, international, and especially European security, military policy, NATO, the Western military-political doctrines and their practical application. Now the lead in the development of this research at MGIMO has taken Center for Military-Political Studies, which became a concentration of relevant

  20. Using observed climate-landscape-vegetation patterns across a regional gradient to predict potential response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, V. B.; Cardenas, B.; David, C. H.

    2010-12-01

    We quantify relationships between climate and drainage density (D) and vegetation cover (V) across a regionally pronounced climate gradient where there is more or less uniform relief and geology. The D is calculated using the National Hydrography Dataset Plus for the watersheds within the Texas Gulf Basin, the study region. 30-yr average climate data (precipitation P, evaporation E and runoff R=P-E) and V was obtained from the North American Regional Reanalysis. The D, V and R for each watershed were analyzed and we found that the D(R) relationship closely follows the comprehensive physically-based model by Moglen, Eltahir and Bras (MEB). Moreover, the D(R) relationship is fit well by a more parsimonious saturation-growth model which is a special case of the MEB model. V(P) is adequately described by a linear model which is consistent whether it is derived via a pixel-by-pixel basis or on a per watershed basis. Using the determined D(R) and V(P) models, we predict what the equilibrium V and D should be for each watershed under an A2 emissions scenario. This is done by considering R and P calculated from results of the Hadley Model and the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM3). We quantify how much browner or greener each watershed will become and the level of disequilibrium in the drainage network.

  1. Evaporation suppression from reservoirs using floating covers: Lab scale wind-tunnel observations and mechanistic model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Or, Dani; Lehmann, Peter; Aminzadeh, Milad; Sommer, Martina; Wey, Hannah; Krentscher, Christiane; Wunderli, Hans; Breitenstein, Daniel

    2017-04-01

    The competition over dwindling fresh water resources is expected to intensify with projected increase in human population in arid regions, expansion of irrigated land and changes in climate and drought patterns. The volume of water stored in reservoirs would also increase to mitigate seasonal shortages due to rainfall variability and to meet irrigation water needs. By some estimates up to half of the stored water is lost to evaporation, thereby exacerbating the water scarcity problem. Recently, there is an upsurge in the use of self-assembling floating covers to suppress evaporation, yet the design and implementation remain largely empirical. We report a systematic experimental evaluation of different cover types and external drivers (radiation, wind, wind plus radiation) on evaporation suppression and energy balance of a 1.4 m2 basin placed in a wind-tunnel. Surprisingly, evaporation suppression by black and white floating covers (balls and plates) were similar despite significantly different energy balance regimes over the cover surfaces. Moreover, the evaporation suppression efficiency was a simple function of the uncovered area (square root of the uncovered fraction) with linear relations with the covered area in some cases. The thermally decoupled floating covers offer an efficient solution to the evaporation suppression with limited influence of the surface energy balance (water temperature for black and white covers was similar and remained nearly constant). The results will be linked with a predictive evaporation-energy balance model and issues of spatial scales and long exposure times will be studied.

  2. Impact of Madden–Julian Oscillation upon Winter Extreme Rainfall in Southern China: Observations and Predictability in CFSv2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Li Ren

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The impact of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO upon extreme rainfall in southern China was studied using the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM index and daily precipitation data from high-resolution stations in China. The probability-distribution function (PDF of November–March rainfall in southern China was found to be skewed toward larger (smaller values in phases 2–3 (6–7 of MJO, during which the probability of extreme rainfall events increased (reduced by 30–50% (20–40% relative to all days in the same season. Physical analysis indicated that the favorable conditions for generating extreme rainfall are associated with southwesterly moisture convergence and vertical moisture advection over southern China, while the direct contributions from horizontal moisture advection are insignificant. Based on the above results, the model-based predictability for extreme rainfall in winter was examined using hindcasts from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2 of NOAA. It is shown that the modulations of MJO on extreme rainfall are captured and forecasted well by CFSv2, despite the existence of a relatively small bias. This study suggests the feasibility of deriving probabilistic forecasts of extreme rainfall in southern China based on RMM indices.

  3. Political analysis using R

    CERN Document Server

    Monogan III, James E

    2015-01-01

    Political Analysis Using R can serve as a textbook for undergraduate or graduate students as well as a manual for independent researchers. It is unique among competitor books in its usage of 21 example datasets that are all drawn from political research. All of the data and example code is available from the Springer website, as well as from Dataverse (http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ARKOTI). The book provides a narrative of how R can be useful for addressing problems common to the analysis of public administration, public policy, and political science data specifically, in addition to the social sciences more broadly. While the book uses data drawn from political science, public administration, and policy analyses, it is written so that students and researchers in other fields should find it accessible and useful as well. Political Analysis Using R is perfect for the first-time R user who has no prior knowledge about the program. By working through the first seven chapters of this book, an entry-level user sho...

  4. Multi-component observation in deep boreholes, and its applications to earthquake prediction research and rock mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishii, Hiroshi

    2014-01-01

    The Tono Research Institute of Earthquake Science (TRIES) has developed a multicomponent instrument that can be operated in deep boreholes (e.g., those one km in depth). It is equipped with stress meters, strain meters, tilt meters, seismometers, magnetometers, and thermometers; in addition, these sensors can be arbitrarily combined. The stress meters, which were developed recently, can observe stress and strain; in the future, data obtained from these sensors will offer new information on seismology and rock mechanics. The size of typical probe is 12 cm diameter 7.8 m total length and 290 kg total weight. It consists of many meters in tandem connection. (authors)

  5. Observed and predicted reduction of ischemic cardiovascular events in the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis trial

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holme, Ingar; Boman, Kurt; Brudi, Philippe

    2010-01-01

    In the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) trial, combined ezetimibe (10 mg) and simvastatin (40 mg) decreased low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels by 50% and ischemic cardiovascular event (ICE) risk by 22% compared to placebo. A larger decrease in ICE risk might have been...... expected for the degree of lipid-lowering observed. This analysis investigated relations between changes in lipoprotein components (LCs), and ICE risk decrease in the SEAS trial in all patients, by severity of aortic stenosis (AS), and compared to results of other clinical trials. A total of 1,570 patients...

  6. The political domain appears simpler to the politically extreme than to political moderates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lammers, J.; Koch, Alex; Conway, Paul; Brandt, M.J.

    2018-01-01

    How does political preference affect categorization in the political domain? Eight studies demonstrate that people on both ends of the political spectrum—strong Republicans and strong Democrats—form simpler and more clustered categories of political stimuli than do moderates and neutrals. This

  7. Political Alienation in Adolescence: Associations with Parental Role Models, Parenting Styles, and Classroom Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gniewosz, Burkhard; Noack, Peter; Buhl, Monika

    2009-01-01

    The present study examined how parental political attitudes, parenting styles, and classroom characteristics predict adolescents' political alienation, as feelings about the individual's ability to affect the political system's performance at the individual level. Participants were 463 families that included mothers, fathers, and their adolescent…

  8. Cross-Cultural Evaluation of Politeness in Tactics for Pedagogical Agents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnson, Lewis; Mayer, Richard E.; André, Elisabeth

    2005-01-01

    in politeness in different cultures. Research in social aspects of human-computer interaction predict that similar phenomena will arise when a computer tutor interacts with learners, i.e., they should exhibit politeness, and the degree of politeness may be culturally dependent. To test this hypothesis, a series...

  9. Are Employee Emotional and Socio-political Competences Related with Innovative Behavior?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kähler, Helena Grøn

    on the socio-political paradigm and the theory of innovation as a socio-political process, the main hypothesis is that employees’ strategic emotional intelligence, mediated by their socio-political competencies, will predict their innovative behavior, particularly their degree of idea-promoting and idea-realization....

  10. In silico and cell-based analyses reveal strong divergence between prediction and observation of T-cell-recognized tumor antigen T-cell epitopes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Julien; Guillaume, Philippe; Dojcinovic, Danijel; Karbach, Julia; Coukos, George; Luescher, Immanuel

    2017-07-14

    Tumor exomes provide comprehensive information on mutated, overexpressed genes and aberrant splicing, which can be exploited for personalized cancer immunotherapy. Of particular interest are mutated tumor antigen T-cell epitopes, because neoepitope-specific T cells often are tumoricidal. However, identifying tumor-specific T-cell epitopes is a major challenge. A widely used strategy relies on initial prediction of human leukocyte antigen-binding peptides by in silico algorithms, but the predictive power of this approach is unclear. Here, we used the human tumor antigen NY-ESO-1 (ESO) and the human leukocyte antigen variant HLA-A*0201 (A2) as a model and predicted in silico the 41 highest-affinity, A2-binding 8-11-mer peptides and assessed their binding, kinetic complex stability, and immunogenicity in A2-transgenic mice and on peripheral blood mononuclear cells from ESO-vaccinated melanoma patients. We found that 19 of the peptides strongly bound to A2, 10 of which formed stable A2-peptide complexes and induced CD8 + T cells in A2-transgenic mice. However, only 5 of the peptides induced cognate T cells in humans; these peptides exhibited strong binding and complex stability and contained multiple large hydrophobic and aromatic amino acids. These results were not predicted by in silico algorithms and provide new clues to improving T-cell epitope identification. In conclusion, our findings indicate that only a small fraction of in silico -predicted A2-binding ESO peptides are immunogenic in humans, namely those that have high peptide-binding strength and complex stability. This observation highlights the need for improving in silico predictions of peptide immunogenicity. © 2017 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

  11. From First Stars to the Spite Plateau: A Possible Reconciliation of Halo Stars Observations with Predictions from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piau, L.; Beers, T. C.; Balsara, D. S.; Sivarani, T.; Truran, J. W.; Ferguson, J. W.

    2006-12-01

    Since the pioneering observations of Spite & Spite in 1982, the constant lithium abundance of metal-poor ([Fe/H]Population III stars. This new paradigm proposes a very economical solution to the lingering difficulty of understanding the properties of the Spite plateau and its lack of star-to-star scatter down to [Fe/H]=-2.5. It is moreover in agreement both with the absence of lithium in the most iron-poor turnoff star currently known (HE 1327-2326) and also with new trends of the plateau suggesting its low-metallicity edge may be reached around [Fe/H]=-2.5. We discuss the role of turbulent mixing associated with enhanced supernovae explosions in the early interstellar medium in this picture. We suggest how it may explain the small scatter and also other recent observational features of the lithium plateau. Finally, we show that other chemical properties of the extremely metal-poor stars (such as carbon enrichment) are also in agreement with significant Population III processing in the halo, provided these models include mass loss and rotationally induced mixing.

  12. Predicting interwell heterogeneity in fluvial-deltaic reservoirs: Outcrop observations and applications of progressive facies variation through a depositional cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knox, P.R.; Barton, M.D. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

    1997-08-01

    Nearly 11 billion barrels of mobile oil remain in known domestic fluvial-deltaic reservoirs despite their mature status. A large percentage of this strategic resource is in danger of permanent loss through premature abandonment. Detailed reservoir characterization studies that integrate advanced technologies in geology, geophysics, and engineering are needed to identify remaining resources that can be targeted by near-term recovery methods, resulting in increased production and the postponement of abandonment. The first and most critical step of advanced characterization studies is the identification of reservoir architecture. However, existing subsurface information, primarily well logs, provides insufficient lateral resolution to identify low-permeability boundaries that exist between wells and compartmentalize the reservoir. Methods to predict lateral variability in fluvial-deltaic reservoirs have been developed on the basis of outcrop studies and incorporate identification of depositional setting and position within a depositional cycle. The position of a reservoir within the framework of a depositional cycle is critical. Outcrop studies of the Cretaceous Ferron Sandstone of Utah have demonstrated that the architecture and internal heterogeneity of sandstones deposited within a given depositional setting (for example, delta front) vary greatly depending upon whether they were deposited in the early, progradational part of a cycle or the late, retrogradational part of a cycle. The application of techniques similar to those used by this study in other fluvial-deltaic reservoirs will help to estimate the amount and style of remaining potential in mature reservoirs through a quicklook evaluation, allowing operators to focus characterization efforts on reservoirs that have the greatest potential to yield additional resources.

  13. Aerosol Observability and Predictability: From Research to Operations for Chemical Weather Forecasting. Lagrangian Displacement Ensembles for Aerosol Data Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Arlindo

    2010-01-01

    A challenge common to many constituent data assimilation applications is the fact that one observes a much smaller fraction of the phase space that one wishes to estimate. For example, remotely sensed estimates of the column average concentrations are available, while one is faced with the problem of estimating 3D concentrations for initializing a prognostic model. This problem is exacerbated in the case of aerosols because the observable Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is not only a column integrated quantity, but it also sums over a large number of species (dust, sea-salt, carbonaceous and sulfate aerosols. An aerosol transport model when driven by high-resolution, state-of-the-art analysis of meteorological fields and realistic emissions can produce skillful forecasts even when no aerosol data is assimilated. The main task of aerosol data assimilation is to address the bias arising from inaccurate emissions, and Lagrangian misplacement of plumes induced by errors in the driving meteorological fields. As long as one decouples the meteorological and aerosol assimilation as we do here, the classic baroclinic growth of error is no longer the main order of business. We will describe an aerosol data assimilation scheme in which the analysis update step is conducted in observation space, using an adaptive maximum-likelihood scheme for estimating background errors in AOD space. This scheme includes e explicit sequential bias estimation as in Dee and da Silva. Unlikely existing aerosol data assimilation schemes we do not obtain analysis increments of the 3D concentrations by scaling the background profiles. Instead we explore the Lagrangian characteristics of the problem for generating local displacement ensembles. These high-resolution state-dependent ensembles are then used to parameterize the background errors and generate 3D aerosol increments. The algorithm has computational complexity running at a resolution of 1/4 degree, globally. We will present the result of

  14. Political Parties and Innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bischoff, Carina Saxlund; Christiansen, Flemming Juul

    2017-01-01

    Public innovation and political parties are usually not studied together. Given the key position parties hold in representative democracies, it is somewhat odd that their influence on public innovation has not been explored. We propose to open this line of inquiry and introduce a typology...... that highlights four avenues for studying the links between public innovation and political parties: linkage, programme, interaction and policy. We use the typology to discuss relevant themes and empirical examples in existing literature and to formulate of a number of hypotheses about innovation of political...... parties themselves as well their impact on potentially innovative public decisions. One major expectation is that hierarchical parties with centralized leadership make more efficient decisions but that sustainable innovation outcomes promoted by collaborative efforts are easier to obtain for decentralized...

  15. The politics of paranoia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belkin, Aaron

    2013-01-01

    For almost 20 years, gay rights advocates and defenders of military anti-gay discrimination engaged in a phony debate about whether allowing open service would undermine unit cohesion. To be sure, a preponderance of evidence showed that open service would not undermine cohesion, and the repeal of don't ask, don't tell (DADT) required advocates to prevail on that point in the court of public opinion. But concerns about cohesion were never the basis of opposition to open service. Rather, opposition was a modern incarnation of the politics of paranoia, a dangerous tradition in American history. Acknowledging that DADT had nothing to do with cohesion and that military leaders allowed the armed forces to be implicated in the politics of paranoia could facilitate disabling paranoia as the basis for other political projects such as anti-immigrant xenophobia. For a video on DADT and paranoia, search for "Donnelly Belkin DADT" on YoutTube.

  16. Education and the political

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korsgaard, Morten Timmermann

    This paper presents the controversial separation of education from the realm of the political as proposed by Hannah Arendt. For the sake of children and the future of the world, we must, according to Arendt, separate education from the political. If we do not do so, we not only expose our children...... to claim that this separation is based on a psychological misunderstanding and that it renders children incapable of political action. I propose here that, by considering the separation instead to be a question of protection, not only can we heed the two essences of education that Arendt articulates...... in The Crisis in Education, namely natality and conservation, but we can also form a clearer understanding of the separation and of her educational thinking more broadly....

  17. Politics of Uranium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    Uranium is the most political of all the elements, the material for the production of both the large amounts of electricity and the most destructive weapons in the world. The problems that its dual potential creates are only now beginning to become evident. Author Norman Moss looks at this situation and sheds light on many of the questions that emerge. The nuclear issue always comes back to how much uranium there is, what can be done with it, and which countries have it. Starting with a concise history of uranium and explaining its technology in terms the nonspecialist can understand, The Politics of Uranium considers the political issues that technical arguments obscure. It tells the little-known story of the international uranium cartel, explains the entanglements of governments with the uranium trade, and describes the consequences of wrong decisions and blunders-especially the problems of nuclear waste. It also examines the intellectual and emotional roots of the anti-nuclear movement

  18. Depression and Political Participation*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojeda, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, I propose that depression is a political phenomenon insofar as it has political sources and consequences. I then investigate one aspect of this argument—whether depression reduces participation. I hypothesize that individuals with depression lack the motivation and physical capacity to vote and engage in other forms of political participation due to somatic problems and feelings of hopelessness and apathy. Moreover, I examine how depression in adolescence can have downstream consequences for participation in young adulthood. The analyses, using both cross-sectional and longitudinal data, show that voter turnout and other forms of participation decrease as the severity of depressed mood increases. These findings are discussed in light of disability rights and potential efforts to boost participation among this group. PMID:26924857

  19. Politics at the interface

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kannabiran, Gobinaath; Petersen, Marianne Graves

    2010-01-01

    At the birth of participatory design, there was a strong political consciousness surrounding the design of new technology, the design process in particular, establishing a rich set of methods and tools for user-centered design. Today, the term design has extended its scope of concern beyond...... the process of design and into how users interact with the designed product on a day-to-day basis. This paper is an attempt to call to attention the need for a new set of methods, attitudes and approaches, along with the existing, to discuss, analyze and reflect upon the politics at the interface....... By presenting a critical analysis of two design cases, we elicit the importance of such an agenda and the implications for design in doing so. We use the Foucauldian notion of power to analyze the power relationships in these two cases and to articulate the politics at the interface. We conclude by emphasizing...

  20. Color-Coding Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Gross

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available During the 2000 Presidential election between George H. W. Bush and Al Gore, journalists often used the terms blue states and red states to describe the political landscape within the United States. This article studies the framing of these terms during the years 2004 through 2007. Using latent and manifest qualitative content analyses, six different news media frames were found in a sample of 337 newspaper articles. Two hypotheses were also tested indicating that framing patterns varied slightly by time period and article types. However, the argument that increased levels of political polarization in the United States have been created by predominantly conflict-oriented coverage may not be true. Instead, these terms became journalistic heuristics that were used to organize how people think about politics in a way that fit with contemporary media practices, and there is no single agreed upon interpretation of these terms within this reporting.

  1. Inequality and Political Clientelism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markussen, Thomas

    Political parties can be vehicles for economic and social development in poor  countries. They can also serve as rent seeking instruments. Uncovering how parties function is therefore key to establishing the preconditions for good governance. The paper discusses when and why clientelism on the ba......Political parties can be vehicles for economic and social development in poor  countries. They can also serve as rent seeking instruments. Uncovering how parties function is therefore key to establishing the preconditions for good governance. The paper discusses when and why clientelism...... on the basis of party affiliation may arise. Operationally, party-based clientelism is defined as a bias of public policy in favour of members of the governing political party. In a sample of local governments in India, party-based clientelism is shown to exist in two out of four states and to be strongly...

  2. Astronomy and political theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campion, Nicholas

    2011-06-01

    This paper will argue that astronomical models have long been applied to political theory, from the use of the Sun as a symbol of the emperor in Rome to the application of Copernican theory to the needs of absolute monarchy. We will begin with consideration of astral divination (the use of astronomy to ascertain divine intentions) in the ancient Near East. Particular attention will be paid to the use of Newton's discovery that the universe operates according to a single set of laws in order to support concepts of political quality and eighteenth century Natural Rights theory. We will conclude with consideration of arguments that the discovery of the expanding, multi-galaxy universe, stimulated political uncertainty in the 1930s, and that photographs of the Earth from Apollo spacecraft encouraged concepts of the `global village'.

  3. Venezuela: oil and politics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Betancourt, R.

    1978-01-01

    Venezuela's struggle to develop its economic and political independence separate from the colonialism of foreign oil companies and free from the authoritarian dictatorships of other developing countries is described by one who has been intimately involved in the nation's political life and is knowledgeable in the relationships of oil, economics, and politics during the bid for democracy and economic egalitarianism. First published in 1956, the treatise has been revised and updated to show how strong party organization was responsible for developing demoncratic programs and how this new strength allowed Venezuela to domesticate much of the foreign involvement in oil production. Historical facts, though acknowledged to have a bias, are documented. 88 references. (DCK)

  4. Potential tank waste material anomalies located near the liquid observation wells: Model predicted responses of a neutron moisture detection system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finfrock, S.H.; Toffer, H.; Watson, W.T.

    1994-09-01

    Extensive analyses have been completed to demonstrate that a neutron moisture probe can be used to recognize anomalies in materials and geometry surrounding the liquid observation wells (LOWs). Furthermore, techniques can be developed that will permit the interpretation of detector readings, perturbed by the presence of anomalies, as more accurate moisture concentrations. This analysis effort extends the usefulness of a neutron moisture probe system significantly, especially in the complicated geometries and material conditions that may be encountered in the waste tanks. Both static-source and pulsed-source neutron probes were considered in the analyses. Four different detector configurations were investigated: Thermal and epithermal neutron detectors located in both the near and far field

  5. Part III: Comparing observed growth of selected test organisms in food irradiation studies with growth predictions calculated by ComBase softwares

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farkas, J.; Andrassy, E.; Meszaros, L.; Beczner, J.; Polyak-Feher, K.; Gaal, O.; Lebovics, V.K.; Lugasi, A.

    2009-01-01

    As a result of intensive predictive microbiological modelling activities, several computer programs and softwares became available recently for facilitating microbiological risk assessment. Among these tools, the establishment of the ComBase, an international database and its predictive modelling softwares of the Pathogen Modelling Program (PMP) set up by the USDA Eastern Regional Research Center, Wyndmore, PA, and the Food Micromodel/Growth Predictor by the United Kingdom's Institute of Food Research, Norwich, are most important. The authors have used the PMP 6.1 software version of ComBase as a preliminary trial to compare observed growth of selected test organisms in relation to their food irradiation work during recent years within the FAO/IAEA Coordinated Food Irradiation Research Projects (D6.10.23 and D6.20.07) with the predicted growth on the basis of growth models available in ComBase for the same species as those of the authors' test organisms. The results of challenge tests with Listeria monocytogenes inoculum in untreated or irradiated experimental batches of semi-prepared breaded turkey meat steaks (cordon bleu), sliced tomato, sliced watermelon, sliced cantaloupe and sous vide processed mixed vegetables, as well as Staphylococcus aureus inoculum of a pasta product, tortellini, were compared with their respective growth models under relevant environmental conditions. This comparison showed good fits in the case of non-irradiated and high moisture food samples, but growth of radiation survivors lagged behind the predicted values. (author)

  6. The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - Observing and Understanding Processes Affecting the Propagation of Intraseasonal Oscillations in the Maritime Continent Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, S. E.

    2017-12-01

    The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International and U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR/US CLIVAR) Program, and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within NOAA's Climate Program Office (http://cpo.noaa.gov/CVP). In 2017, the CVP Program had a call for proposals focused on observing and understanding processes affecting the propagation of intraseasonal oscillations in the Maritime Continent region. This poster will present the recently funded CVP projects, the expected scientific outcomes, the geographic areas of their work in the Maritime Continent region, and the collaborations with the Office of Naval Research, Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) and other partners.

  7. Radionuclide migration in groundwater at a low-level waste disposal site: a comparison of predictive performance modeling versus field observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robertson, D.E.; Myers, D.A.; Bergeron, M.P.; Champ, D.R.; Killey, R.W.D.; Moltyaner, G.L.; Young, J.L.

    1985-08-01

    This paper describes a project which is structured to test the concept of modeling a shallow land low-level waste burial site. The project involves a comparison of the actual observed radionuclide migration in groundwaters at a 30-year-old well-monitored field site with the results of predictive transport modeling. The comparison is being conducted as a cooperative program with the Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. (AECL) at the low-level waste management area at the Chalk River Nuclear Laboratories, Ontario, Canada. A joint PNL-AECL field inviestigation was conducted in 1983 and 1984 to complement the existing extensive data base on actual radionuclide migration. Predictive transport modeling is currently being conducted for this site; first, as if it were a new location being considered for a low-level waste shallow-land burial site and only minimal information about the site were available, and second, utilizing the extensive data base available for the site. The modeling results will then be compared with the empirical observations to provide insight into the level of effort needed to reasonably predict the spacial and temporal movement of radionuclides in the groundwater enviroment. 8 refs., 5 figs.,

  8. Fuzzy Sliding Mode Observer with Grey Prediction for the Estimation of the State-of-Charge of a Lithium-Ion Battery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daehyun Kim

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available We propose a state-of-charge (SOC estimation method for Li-ion batteries that combines a fuzzy sliding mode observer (FSMO with grey prediction. Unlike the existing methods based on a conventional first-order sliding mode observer (SMO and an adaptive gain SMO, the proposed method eliminates chattering in SOC estimation. In this method, which uses a fuzzy inference system, the gains of the SMO are adjusted according to the predicted future error and present estimation error of the terminal voltage. To forecast the future error value, a one-step-ahead terminal voltage prediction is obtained using a grey predictor. The proposed estimation method is validated through two types of discharge tests (a pulse discharge test and a random discharge test. The SOC estimation results are compared to the results of the conventional first-order SMO-based and the adaptive gain SMO-based methods. The experimental results show that the proposed method not only reduces chattering, but also improves estimation accuracy.

  9. The Large-scale Coronal Structure of the 2017 August 21 Great American Eclipse: An Assessment of Solar Surface Flux Transport Model Enabled Predictions and Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nandy, Dibyendu; Bhowmik, Prantika; Yeates, Anthony R.; Panda, Suman; Tarafder, Rajashik; Dash, Soumyaranjan

    2018-01-01

    On 2017 August 21, a total solar eclipse swept across the contiguous United States, providing excellent opportunities for diagnostics of the Sun’s corona. The Sun’s coronal structure is notoriously difficult to observe except during solar eclipses; thus, theoretical models must be relied upon for inferring the underlying magnetic structure of the Sun’s outer atmosphere. These models are necessary for understanding the role of magnetic fields in the heating of the corona to a million degrees and the generation of severe space weather. Here we present a methodology for predicting the structure of the coronal field based on model forward runs of a solar surface flux transport model, whose predicted surface field is utilized to extrapolate future coronal magnetic field structures. This prescription was applied to the 2017 August 21 solar eclipse. A post-eclipse analysis shows good agreement between model simulated and observed coronal structures and their locations on the limb. We demonstrate that slow changes in the Sun’s surface magnetic field distribution driven by long-term flux emergence and its evolution governs large-scale coronal structures with a (plausibly cycle-phase dependent) dynamical memory timescale on the order of a few solar rotations, opening up the possibility for large-scale, global corona predictions at least a month in advance.

  10. Predicting the Mineral Composition of Dust Aerosols. Part 2; Model Evaluation and Identification of Key Processes with Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perlwitz, J. P.; Garcia-Pando, C. Perez; Miller, R. L.

    2015-01-01

    A global compilation of nearly sixty measurement studies is used to evaluate two methods of simulating the mineral composition of dust aerosols in an Earth system model. Both methods are based upon a Mean Mineralogical Table (MMT) that relates the soil mineral fractions to a global atlas of arid soil type. The Soil Mineral Fraction (SMF) method assumes that the aerosol mineral fractions match the fractions of the soil. The MMT is based upon soil measurements after wet sieving, a process that destroys aggregates of soil particles that would have been emitted from the original, undisturbed soil. The second method approximately reconstructs the emitted aggregates. This model is referred to as the Aerosol Mineral Fraction (AMF) method because the mineral fractions of the aerosols differ from those of the wet-sieved parent soil, partly due to reaggregation. The AMF method remedies some of the deficiencies of the SMF method in comparison to observations. Only the AMF method exhibits phyllosilicate mass at silt sizes, where they are abundant according to observations. In addition, the AMF quartz fraction of silt particles is in better agreement with measured values, in contrast to the overestimated SMF fraction. Measurements at distinct clay and silt particle sizes are shown to be more useful for evaluation of the models, in contrast to the sum over all particles sizes that is susceptible to compensating errors, as illustrated by the SMF experiment. Model errors suggest that allocation of the emitted silt fraction of each mineral into the corresponding transported size categories is an important remaining source of uncertainty. Evaluation of both models and the MMT is hindered by the limited number of size-resolved measurements of mineral content that sparsely sample aerosols from the major dust sources. The importance of climate processes dependent upon aerosol mineral composition shows the need for global and routine mineral measurements.

  11. The estimation of soil parameters using observations on crop biophysical variables and the crop model STICS improve the predictions of agro environmental variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varella, H.-V.

    2009-04-01

    Dynamic crop models are very useful to predict the behavior of crops in their environment and are widely used in a lot of agro-environmental work. These models have many parameters and their spatial application require a good knowledge of these parameters, especially of the soil parameters. These parameters can be estimated from soil analysis at different points but this is very costly and requires a lot of experimental work. Nevertheless, observations on crops provided by new techniques like remote sensing or yield monitoring, is a possibility for estimating soil parameters through the inversion of crop models. In this work, the STICS crop model is studied for the wheat and the sugar beet and it includes more than 200 parameters. After a previous work based on a large experimental database for calibrate parameters related to the characteristics of the crop, a global sensitivity analysis of the observed variables (leaf area index LAI and absorbed nitrogen QN provided by remote sensing data, and yield at harvest provided by yield monitoring) to the soil parameters is made, in order to determine which of them have to be estimated. This study was made in different climatic and agronomic conditions and it reveals that 7 soil parameters (4 related to the water and 3 related to the nitrogen) have a clearly influence on the variance of the observed variables and have to be therefore estimated. For estimating these 7 soil parameters, a Bayesian data assimilation method is chosen (because of available prior information on these parameters) named Importance Sampling by using observations, on wheat and sugar beet crop, of LAI and QN at various dates and yield at harvest acquired on different climatic and agronomic conditions. The quality of parameter estimation is then determined by comparing the result of parameter estimation with only prior information and the result with the posterior information provided by the Bayesian data assimilation method. The result of the

  12. Destructiveness in Political Discourse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Яна Александровна Волкова

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Destructiveness is among the fundamental discourse categories that play a significant role in the organization of communicative interaction and define the pragmatics of discourse; its study helps to understand some mechanisms and principles of communication, identify strategies and tactics used by a destructive communicative personality. The relevance of this study is determined by the increasing aggressiveness in various types of discourse, and, accordingly, by the need to extend the knowledge of destructive behavior of a communicative personality. The study is based on the theory of discourse-analysis and theory of destructiveness (Z. Harris, T. van Dijk, A. Buss, E. Fromm, D. Ponton, K. Hacker, R. Wodak. N. Arutyunova, V. Karasik, M. Makarov, E. Sheigal et al. Developing the theory of destructiveness and relying on Erich Fromm’s research (1973, we specify the concept of “destructiveness” in relation to the political discourse and compare it with the related concept of aggressiveness. The paper analyses the category of destructiveness in modern US political discourse, using excerpts from the speeches of the candidates for presidency of 2016. Particular attention is paid to the dominant destructive intention - to harm the reputation of the opponent and reduce his political chances, as well as to the functions of verbal aggression: on the one hand - to discredit the opponent, bring accusations, on the other hand - to poison the audience mind against him/her and arouse the feeling of danger posed by a political opponent. The analysis of verbal and nonverbal means of destructiveness in the US political discourse is carried out. The article concludes that abusive remarks of politicians do not result from spontaneous emotional outburst, but from an elaborated destructive strategy where the agonistic nature of political discourse stipulates the use of instrumental aggression (Buss, 1971 for the sake of the conquest of power, lowering the

  13. T-wave variability for the prediction of fast ventricular arrhythmias – prospective, observer-blind study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stojkovic, Stefan; Ristl, Robin; Moser, Fabian T; Wolzt, Michael; Wojta, Johann; Schmidinger, Herwig; Pezawas, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    The clinical value of T-wave variability (T-var) for ventricular arrhythmia (VA) risk prediction was evaluated. Three 20-min Holter-ECG-based T-var measurements (I1 at baseline, I2 after 6.5 ± 1.6 months and I3 after 13.1 ± 2.0 months) were done in 121 patients. T-var was defined as the amplitude variability of the T-wave with the maximum of T-wave oscillation. The endpoint was a fast, potentially fatal VA (>240 beats/min). During follow-up (20 ± 4 months) 20/121 patients (55% ischemic heart disease, 15% preserved left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF]) had fast VA terminated by ICD or external shock. Although T-var did not differ between patients with vs. without fast VA at baseline (I1: 10.7 ± 7.3 µV vs. 7.8 ± 4.1 µV, P=0.170), patients with fast VA had higher T-var compared to those without fast VA at 2 subsequent measurements (I2: 14.0 ± 6.5 µV vs. 8.2 ± 3.6 µV, P=0.030; I3: 17.0 ± 5.4 µV vs. 8.8 ± 4.6 µV, P=0.004). The increase in T-var between I1 and I2 was higher in patients with fast VA (∆T-var=7.0 ± 9.3 µV), as compared to patients without (∆T-var=0.4 ± 4.3 µV). After adjustment for LVEF in a multiple logistic regression model, the odds ratio for developing fast VA was 1.1 (P=0.056) for each 1-µV increment in T-var at I1. T-var is elevated in patients with fast VA, and both elevation of T-var and increase in T-var may complement LVEF in VA risk stratification.

  14. The SURA Coastal Ocean Observing and Prediction (SCOOP) Program: Adapting Web 2.0 technologies to power next generation science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogden, P.; Partners, S.

    2008-12-01

    The Web 2.0 has helped globalize the economy and change social interactions, but the full impact on coastal sciences has yet to be realized. The SCOOP program (www.OpenIOOS.org/about/sura.html), an initiative of the Coastal Research Committee of the Southeastern Universities Research Association (SURA), has been using Web 2.0 technologies to create infrastructure for a multi-disciplinary Distributed Coastal Laboratory (DCL). In the spirit of the Web 2.0, SCOOP strives to provide an open-access virtual facility where "virtual visiting" scientists can log in, perform experiments (e.g., evaluate new wetting/drying algorithms in several different inundation models), potentially contribute to the assembly of resources (e.g., leave their algorithms for others), and then move on. The SCOOP prototype has focused on storm surge and waves (the initial science focus), and integrates a real-time data network to evaluate the predictions. The multi-purpose SCOOP components support a sensor-web initiative (www.OOSTethys.org) that is co-led by SURA. SCOOP also includes portals with real-time visualization, workflow configuration and decision-tool prototypes (www.OpenIOOS.org), powered by distributed computing resources from multiple universities across the nation (www.sura.org/SURAgrid). Based on our experience, we propose three key ingredients for initiatives to have the biggest impact on coastal science: (1) standards, (2) working prototypes and (3) communities of interest. We strongly endorse the Open Geospatial Consortium - a geospatial analog of the World Wide Web consortium - and other international consensus-standards bodies that engage government, private sector and academic involvement. But these standards are often highly complex, which can be an impediment to their use. We have overcome such hurdles with the second key ingredient: a focused working prototype. The prototype should include guides and resources that make it easy for others to apply, test, and revise the

  15. A comparison of observed and predicted ground motions from the 2015 MW7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hough, Susan E.; Martin, Stacey S.; Gahalaut, V.; Joshi, A.; Landes, M.; Bossu, R.

    2016-01-01

    We use 21 strong motion recordings from Nepal and India for the 25 April 2015 moment magnitude (MW) 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake together with the extensive macroseismic intensity data set presented by Martin et al. (Seism Res Lett 87:957–962, 2015) to analyse the distribution of ground motions at near-field and regional distances. We show that the data are consistent with the instrumental peak ground acceleration (PGA) versus macroseismic intensity relationship developed by Worden et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 102:204–221, 2012), and use this relationship to estimate peak ground acceleration from intensities (PGAEMS). For nearest-fault distances (RRUP Seism Soc Am 93:1703–1729, 2003) subduction zone ground motion prediction equation (GMPE). At greater distances (RRUP > 200 km), instrumental PGA values are consistent with this GMPE, while PGAEMS is systematically higher. We suggest the latter reflects a duration effect whereby effects of weak shaking are enhanced by long-duration and/or long-period ground motions from a large event at regional distances. We use PGAEMS values within 200 km to investigate the variability of high-frequency ground motions using the Atkinson and Boore (Bull Seism Soc Am 93:1703–1729, 2003) GMPE as a baseline. Across the near-field region, PGAEMS is higher by a factor of 2.0–2.5 towards the northern, down-dip edge of the rupture compared to the near-field region nearer to the southern, up-dip edge of the rupture. Inferred deamplification in the deepest part of the Kathmandu valley supports the conclusion that former lake-bed sediments experienced a pervasive nonlinear response during the mainshock (Dixit et al. in Seismol Res Lett 86(6):1533–1539, 2015; Rajaure et al. in Tectonophysics, 2016. Ground motions were significantly amplified in the southern Gangetic basin, but were relatively low in the northern basin. The overall distribution of ground motions and damage during the Gorkha earthquake thus reflects a combination

  16. Poetry, philosophy, political

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Pucheu

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Considering how persistently a certain amount of specialized critics work to diminish contemporary Brazilian poetry, this essay seeks to conceive an articulation among poetry, philosophy and politics. We atempt to do that, on the one hand, through the philosophical concepts of aporia and wonder (thaumazein, and, on the another hand, by considering what Giorgio Agamben refers to as “an insurmontable disjunction between whatever singularity and the State organization”. Among the many poets that could be approached in this context, we chose to close the text with an interpretation some of Tarso de Melo's remarkably and explicitly political poems.

  17. Environmental groups in politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lowe, P.; Goyder, J.

    1983-01-01

    The subject is covered in chapters, entitled: introduction; (Part I) the environmental movement (environmental groups and the attentive public; the episodic development of the environmental movement; the underlying values of environmentalism; the roots of environmental concern; the social limits to growth; elite manipulation of values); the organisation of environmental groups; environmental groups in national politics; environmental groups in local politics; (Part II) the Henley Society; Friends of the Earth; the National Trust; the Royal Society for Nature Conservation; the European Environmental Bureau. (U.K.)

  18. The politics of digits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Asmus Leth

    2013-01-01

    -endings data. Second, nine-ending and other higher-end decimals are found to be over-represented which echoes odd pricing research. It suggests that incumbents take voters’ biases into account and apply odd taxes to minimize the political costs of taxation while maximizing revenue. Attention should be given......From the concept of odd pricing, i.e., setting rightmost price digits below a whole number, this paper advances the political counterpart of odd taxation using a panel of Danish municipal taxes. First, the distribution of tax decimals is non-uniform and resembles the distribution of price...

  19. Economy and energy politic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, J.M.

    1992-01-01

    This book, divided into four parts, describes, first, energy consumption and national economy growth. In a second part, the irresistible ascent of coal, natural gas and petroleum international markets is studied. In the third part, energy politic is investigated: exchanges releasing, prices deregulation, contestation of power industry monopoly, energy national market and common energetic politic, single market concept. In the last part, global risks and world-wide regulations are given: demand, energy resources, technical changes, comparative evaluations between fossil, nuclear and renewable energies, environment, investments financing and international cooperation. 23 refs., 14 figs., 16 tabs

  20. Internationalist Political Thought

    OpenAIRE

    Myers, J. C.

    2017-01-01

    One rather striking description of what lies behind the various phenomena we now refer to with the term "globalisation" comes to us from the chairman of Magna International, a Canadian-owned auto-parts manufacturer whose production lines are located in Mexico. "To be in business," he states, "your first mandate is to make money, and money has no heart, soul, conscience, homeland" (Henwood, 1997, 113). If this is the world of business and money, might politics be its obverse? To be sure, polit...