WorldWideScience

Sample records for policy simulation models

  1. Policy advice derived from simulation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brenner, T.; Werker, C.

    2009-01-01

    When advising policy we face the fundamental problem that economic processes are connected with uncertainty and thus policy can err. In this paper we show how the use of simulation models can reduce policy errors. We suggest that policy is best based on socalled abductive simulation models, which

  2. Useful models for simulating policies to induce technological change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivers, Nic; Jaccard, Mark

    2006-01-01

    Conventional top-down and bottom-up energy-economy models have limitations that affect their usefulness to policy-makers. Efforts to develop hybrid models, that incorporate valuable aspects of these two frameworks, may be more useful by representing technologies in the energy-economy explicitly while also representing more realistically the way in which businesses and consumers choose between those technologies. This representation allows for the realistic simulation of a wide range of technology-specific regulations and fiscal incentives alongside economy-wide fiscal incentives and disincentives. These policies can be assessed based on the costs required to reach a goal in the medium term, as well as on the degree to which they induce technological change that affects costs over long time periods

  3. The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence: results from the Michigan SimSmoke tobacco policy simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, David T; Huang, An-Tsun; Havumaki, Joshua S; Meza, Rafael

    2016-05-01

    Michigan has implemented several of the tobacco control policies recommended by the World Health Organization MPOWER goals. We consider the effect of those policies and additional policies consistent with MPOWER goals on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs). The SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model is used to examine the effect of past policies and a set of additional policies to meet the MPOWER goals. The model is adapted to Michigan using state population, smoking, and policy data starting in 1993. SADs are estimated using standard attribution methods. Upon validating the model, SimSmoke is used to distinguish the effect of policies implemented since 1993 against a counterfactual with policies kept at their 1993 levels. The model is then used to project the effect of implementing stronger policies beginning in 2014. SimSmoke predicts smoking prevalence accurately between 1993 and 2010. Since 1993, a relative reduction in smoking rates of 22 % by 2013 and of 30 % by 2054 can be attributed to tobacco control policies. Of the 22 % reduction, 44 % is due to taxes, 28 % to smoke-free air laws, 26 % to cessation treatment policies, and 2 % to youth access. Moreover, 234,000 SADs are projected to be averted by 2054. With additional policies consistent with MPOWER goals, the model projects that, by 2054, smoking prevalence can be further reduced by 17 % with 80,000 deaths averted relative to the absence of those policies. Michigan SimSmoke shows that tobacco control policies, including cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, and cessation treatment policies, have substantially reduced smoking and SADs. Higher taxes, strong mass media campaigns, and cessation treatment policies would further reduce smoking prevalence and SADs.

  4. Systems Thinking and Simulation Modeling to Inform Childhood Obesity Policy and Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Kenneth E; Kibbe, Debra L; Ferencik, Rachel; Soderquist, Chris; Phillips, Mary Ann; Vall, Emily Anne; Minyard, Karen J

    In 2007, 31.7% of Georgia adolescents in grades 9-12 were overweight or obese. Understanding the impact of policies and interventions on obesity prevalence among young people can help determine statewide public health and policy strategies. This article describes a systems model, originally launched in 2008 and updated in 2014, that simulates the impact of policy interventions on the prevalence of childhood obesity in Georgia through 2034. In 2008, using information from peer-reviewed reports and quantitative estimates by experts in childhood obesity, physical activity, nutrition, and health economics and policy, a group of legislators, legislative staff members, and experts trained in systems thinking and system dynamics modeling constructed a model simulating the impact of policy interventions on the prevalence of childhood obesity in Georgia through 2034. Use of the 2008 model contributed to passage of a bill requiring annual fitness testing of schoolchildren and stricter enforcement of physical education requirements. We updated the model in 2014. With no policy change, the updated model projects that the prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged ≤18 in Georgia would hold at 18% from 2014 through 2034. Mandating daily school physical education (which would reduce prevalence to 12%) and integrating moderate to vigorous physical activity into elementary classrooms (which would reduce prevalence to 10%) would have the largest projected impact. Enacting all policies simultaneously would lower the prevalence of childhood obesity from 18% to 3%. Systems thinking, especially with simulation models, facilitates understanding of complex health policy problems. Using a simulation model to educate legislators, educators, and health experts about the policies that have the greatest short- and long-term impact should encourage strategic investment in low-cost, high-return policies.

  5. Simulation modeling of policies directed at youth sugar-sweetened beverage consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, David T; Friend, Karen B

    2013-03-01

    Childhood obesity is a significant public health problem requiring innovative solutions. While recent reviews indicate that some policies show promise, there is a lack of information regarding which policies, and policy combinations, work best. Low-nutrition, energy-dense foods and beverages such as sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have been identified as a major contributor to the problem. The purpose of this paper is to use simulation modeling to show how changes in three categories of SSB policies-school nutrition, school-based education, and taxes-impact SSB and other food consumption. The model shows that policies directed at SSBs, particularly tax hikes, could lead to substantial reductions in the number of calories consumed by youth. The estimates, however, are subject to a high degree of uncertainty. Estimates from school-based nutrition and school-based education policies, while also helping to reduce caloric intake, generally show smaller effects than tax policies and considerable variation around parameter estimates for individual and combined policies. We conclude with a discussion of the limits of the model, and suggest where additional information is needed. Limitations notwithstanding, simulation modeling is a promising methodology that can help advance our understanding of policy effects, thereby helping policymakers to better formulate effective policies to reduce obesity prevalence and the associated social harms.

  6. Tobacco Policies in Louisiana: Recommendations for Future Tobacco Control Investment from SimSmoke, a Policy Simulation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, David; Fergus, Cristin; Rudov, Lindsey; McCormick-Ricket, Iben; Carton, Thomas

    2016-02-01

    Despite the presence of tobacco control policies, Louisiana continues to experience a high smoking burden and elevated smoking-attributable deaths. The SimSmoke model provides projections of these health outcomes in the face of existing and expanded (simulated) tobacco control polices. The SimSmoke model utilizes population data, smoking rates, and various tobacco control policy measures from Louisiana to predict smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. The model begins in 1993 and estimates are projected through 2054. The model is validated against existing Louisiana smoking prevalence data. The most powerful individual policy measure for reducing smoking prevalence is cigarette excise tax. However, a comprehensive cessation treatment policy is predicted to save the most lives. A combination of tobacco control policies provides the greatest reduction in smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. The existing Louisiana excise tax ranks as one of the lowest in the country and the legislature is against further increases. Alternative policy measures aimed at lowering prevalence and attributable deaths are: cessation treatments, comprehensive smoke-free policies, and limiting youth access. These three policies have a substantial effect on smoking prevalence and attributable deaths and are likely to encounter more favor in the Louisiana legislature than increasing the state excise tax.

  7. IMPACT: a generic tool for modelling and simulating public health policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ainsworth, J D; Carruthers, E; Couch, P; Green, N; O'Flaherty, M; Sperrin, M; Williams, R; Asghar, Z; Capewell, S; Buchan, I E

    2011-01-01

    Populations are under-served by local health policies and management of resources. This partly reflects a lack of realistically complex models to enable appraisal of a wide range of potential options. Rising computing power coupled with advances in machine learning and healthcare information now enables such models to be constructed and executed. However, such models are not generally accessible to public health practitioners who often lack the requisite technical knowledge or skills. To design and develop a system for creating, executing and analysing the results of simulated public health and healthcare policy interventions, in ways that are accessible and usable by modellers and policy-makers. The system requirements were captured and analysed in parallel with the statistical method development for the simulation engine. From the resulting software requirement specification the system architecture was designed, implemented and tested. A model for Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) was created and validated against empirical data. The system was successfully used to create and validate the CHD model. The initial validation results show concordance between the simulation results and the empirical data. We have demonstrated the ability to connect health policy-modellers and policy-makers in a unified system, thereby making population health models easier to share, maintain, reuse and deploy.

  8. A multiple perspective modeling and simulation approach for renewable energy policy evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alyamani, Talal M.

    Environmental issues and reliance on fossil fuel sources, including coal, oil, and natural gas, are the two most common energy issues that are currently faced by the United States (U.S.). Incorporation of renewable energy sources, a non-economical option in electricity generation compared to conventional sources that burn fossil fuels, single handedly promises a viable solution for both of these issues. Several energy policies have concordantly been suggested to reduce the financial burden of adopting renewable energy technologies and make such technologies competitive with conventional sources throughout the U.S. This study presents a modeling and analysis approach for comprehensive evaluation of renewable energy policies with respect to their benefits to various related stakeholders--customers, utilities, governmental and environmental agencies--where the debilitating impacts, advantages, and disadvantages of such policies can be assessed and quantified at the state level. In this work, a novel simulation framework is presented to help policymakers promptly assess and evaluate policies from different perspectives of its stakeholders. The proposed framework is composed of four modules: 1) a database that collates the economic, operational, and environmental data; 2) elucidation of policy, which devises the policy for the simulation model; 3) a preliminary analysis, which makes predictions for consumption, supply, and prices; and 4) a simulation model. After the validity of the proposed framework is demonstrated, a series of planned Florida and Texas renewable energy policies are implemented into the presented framework as case studies. Two solar and one energy efficiency programs are selected as part of the Florida case study. A utility rebate and federal tax credit programs are selected as part of the Texas case study. The results obtained from the simulation and conclusions drawn on the assessment of current energy policies are presented with respect to the

  9. A simulation model for reliability-based appraisal of an energy policy: The case of Lebanon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamdan, H.A.; Ghajar, R.F.; Chedid, R.B.

    2012-01-01

    The Lebanese Electric Power System (LEPS) has been suffering from technical and financial deficiencies for decades and mirrors the problems encountered in many developing countries suffering from inadequate or no power systems planning resulting in incomplete and ill-operating infrastructure, and suffering from effects of political instability, huge debts, unavailability of financing desired projects and inefficiency in operation. The upgrade and development of the system necessitate the adoption of a comprehensive energy policy that introduces solutions to a diversity of problems addressing the technical, financial, administrative and governance aspects of the system. In this paper, an energy policy for Lebanon is proposed and evaluated based on integration between energy modeling and financial modeling. The paper utilizes the Load Modification Technique (LMT) as a probabilistic tool to assess the impact of policy implementation on energy production, overall cost, technical/commercial losses and reliability. Scenarios reflecting implementation of policy projects are assessed and their impacts are compared with business-as-usual scenarios which assume no new investment is to take place in the sector. Conclusions are drawn on the usefulness of the proposed evaluation methodology and the effectiveness of the adopted energy policy for Lebanon and other developing countries suffering from similar power system problems. - Highlights: ► Evaluation methodology based on a probabilistic simulation tool is proposed. ► A business-as-usual scenario for a given study period of the LEPS was modeled. ► Mitigation scenarios reflecting implementation of the energy policy are modeled. ► Policy simulated and compared with business-as-usual scenarios of the LEPS. ► Results reflect usefulness of proposed methodology and the adopted energy policy.

  10. Evaluation of realised energy savings with simulation models. A new policy tool for the Netherlands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boonekamp, P.G.M. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands)

    2013-01-15

    This report describes a new analysis tool for the evaluation of realised energy savings, and effects of savings policy, in the Netherlands. It aims to meet the information needs of policymakers, both at national and EU level, using the monitoring results of the NL Agency. The system builds on the Protocol Monitoring Energy Savings to calculate realised savings. The innovation consists of the option to adjust energy models per sector, as already used for scenario analysis, to simulate past developments. The simulations can estimate total savings and assess the contribution of policy measures. The detailed simulation approach also enables the decomposition of energy trends into volume-effects due to growth, structural effects such as fuel substitution and import/exports, and various saving effects. As the modeling system is already used for the analysis of future trends, it enables a good comparison between ex-ante (expected) savings and ex-post (realised) savings. Finally, the system enables a faster delivery of calculation results than presently is the case.

  11. Intelligent simulation of aquatic environment economic policy coupled ABM and SD models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huihui; Zhang, Jiarui; Zeng, Weihua

    2018-03-15

    Rapid urbanization and population growth have resulted in serious water shortage and pollution of the aquatic environment, which are important reasons for the complex increase in environmental deterioration in the region. This study examines the environmental consequences and economic impacts of water resource shortages under variant economic policies; however, this requires complex models that jointly consider variant agents and sectors within a systems perspective. Thus, we propose a complex system model that couples multi-agent based models (ABM) and system dynamics (SD) models to simulate the impact of alternative economic policies on water use and pricing. Moreover, this model took the constraint of the local water resources carrying capacity into consideration. Results show that to achieve the 13th Five Year Plan targets in Dianchi, water prices for local residents and industries should rise to 3.23 and 4.99 CNY/m 3 , respectively. The corresponding sewage treatment fees for residents and industries should rise to 1.50 and 2.25 CNY/m 3 , respectively, assuming comprehensive adjustment of industrial structure and policy. At the same time, the local government should exercise fine-scale economic policy combined with emission fees assessed for those exceeding a standard, and collect fines imposed as punishment for enterprises that exceed emission standards. When fines reach 500,000 CNY, the total number of enterprises that exceed emission standards in the basin can be controlled within 1%. Moreover, it is suggested that the volume of water diversion in Dianchi should be appropriately reduced to 3.06×10 8 m 3 . The reduced expense of water diversion should provide funds to use for the construction of recycled water facilities. Then the local rise in the rate of use of recycled water should reach 33%, and 1.4 CNY/m 3 for the price of recycled water could be provided to ensure the sustainable utilization of local water resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B

  12. The Societal Costs and Benefits of Commuter Bicycling: Simulating the Effects of Specific Policies Using System Dynamics Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor, Jennie; Witten, Karen; Kearns, Robin; Rees, David; Woodward, Alistair

    2014-01-01

    Background: Shifting to active modes of transport in the trip to work can achieve substantial co-benefits for health, social equity, and climate change mitigation. Previous integrated modeling of transport scenarios has assumed active transport mode share and has been unable to incorporate acknowledged system feedbacks. Objectives: We compared the effects of policies to increase bicycle commuting in a car-dominated city and explored the role of participatory modeling to support transport planning in the face of complexity. Methods: We used system dynamics modeling (SDM) to compare realistic policies, incorporating feedback effects, nonlinear relationships, and time delays between variables. We developed a system dynamics model of commuter bicycling through interviews and workshops with policy, community, and academic stakeholders. We incorporated best available evidence to simulate five policy scenarios over the next 40 years in Auckland, New Zealand. Injury, physical activity, fuel costs, air pollution, and carbon emissions outcomes were simulated. Results: Using the simulation model, we demonstrated the kinds of policies that would likely be needed to change a historical pattern of decline in cycling into a pattern of growth that would meet policy goals. Our model projections suggest that transforming urban roads over the next 40 years, using best practice physical separation on main roads and bicycle-friendly speed reduction on local streets, would yield benefits 10–25 times greater than costs. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first integrated simulation model of future specific bicycling policies. Our projections provide practical evidence that may be used by health and transport policy makers to optimize the benefits of transport bicycling while minimizing negative consequences in a cost-effective manner. The modeling process enhanced understanding by a range of stakeholders of cycling as a complex system. Participatory SDM can be a helpful method

  13. An evaluation of screening policies for cervical cancer in England and Wales using a computer simulation model.

    OpenAIRE

    Parkin, D M; Moss, S M

    1986-01-01

    Several screening policies have been recommended for implementation in England and Wales in the last 20 years, although no evidence as to their relative effectiveness or efficiency has been provided. Using a computer simulation model, the outcomes expected from those policies had they been implemented over a 30 year period (1961-90) have been examined. The original policies based on five-yearly testing of women aged over 35 appear to be the most cost-effective, and extension of screening to y...

  14. A Model-Based Framework for Legal Policy Simulation and Compliance Checking

    OpenAIRE

    Soltana, Ghanem

    2017-01-01

    Information systems implementing requirements from laws and regulations, such as taxes and social benefits, need to be thoroughly verified to demonstrate their compliance. Several Verification and Validation (V&V) techniques, such as reliability testing, and modeling and simulation, can be used for assessing that such systems meet their legal. Typically, one has to model the expected (legal) behavior of the system in a form that can be executed (simulated), subject the resulting models and th...

  15. A rational expectations model for simulation and policy evaluation of the Spanish economy

    OpenAIRE

    Boscá, J. E.; Díaz, A.; Doménech, R.; Ferri, J.; Pérez, E.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents the model used for simulation purposes within the Spanish Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance. REMS (a Rational Expectations Model for the Spanish economy) is a small open economy dynamic general equilibrium model in the vein of the New-Neoclassical-Keynesian synthesis models, with a strongly micro-founded system of equations. In the long run REMS behaves in accordance with the neoclassical growth model. In the short run, it incorporates nominal, real and financial fr...

  16. Assessing the Impact of Policy Changes in the Icelandic Cod Fishery Using a Hybrid Simulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sigríður Sigurðardóttir

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the Icelandic cod is caught in bottom trawlers or longliners. These two fishing methods are fundamentally different and have different economic, environmental, and even social effects. In this paper we present a hybrid-simulation framework to assess the impact of changing the ratio between cod quota allocated to vessels with longlines and vessels with bottom trawls. It makes use of conventional bioeconomic models and discrete event modelling and provides a framework for simulating life cycle assessment (LCA for a cod fishery. The model consists of two submodels, a system dynamics model describing the biological aspect of the fishery and a discrete event model for fishing activities. The model was run multiple times for different quota allocation scenarios and results are presented where different scenarios are presented in the three dimensions of sustainability: environmental, social, and economic. The optimal allocation strategy depends on weighing the three different factors. The results were encouraging first-steps towards a useful modelling method but the study would benefit greatly from better data on fishing activities.

  17. Policy evaluation in diabetes prevention and treatment using a population-based macro simulation model : the MICADO model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Heijden, A. A. W. A.; Feenstra, T. L.; Hoogenveen, R. T.; Niessen, L. W.; de Bruijne, M. C.; Dekker, J. M.; Baan, C. A.; Nijpels, G.

    2015-01-01

    Aims To test a simulation model, the MICADO model, for estimating the long-term effects of interventions in people with and without diabetes. Methods The MICADO model includes micro-and macrovascular diseases in relation to their risk factors. The strengths of this model are its population scope and

  18. Interactive use of simulation models for collaborative knowledge construction: the case of flood policy decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leskens, Anne

    2015-01-01

    There is an increasing use of interactive flood simulation models in work sessions with practitioners, which is supposed to be more effective than feeding static model results from conventional simulation models into the decision-making process. These interactive simulation models rely on fast and

  19. Essays in energy policy and planning modeling under uncertainty: Value of information, optimistic biases, and simulation of capacity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Ming-Che

    Optimization and simulation are popular operations research and systems analysis tools for energy policy modeling. This dissertation addresses three important questions concerning the use of these tools for energy market (and electricity market) modeling and planning under uncertainty. (1) What is the value of information and cost of disregarding different sources of uncertainty for the U.S. energy economy? (2) Could model-based calculations of the performance (social welfare) of competitive and oligopolistic market equilibria be optimistically biased due to uncertainties in objective function coefficients? (3) How do alternative sloped demand curves perform in the PJM capacity market under economic and weather uncertainty? How does curve adjustment and cost dynamics affect the capacity market outcomes? To address the first question, two-stage stochastic optimization is utilized in the U.S. national MARKAL energy model; then the value of information and cost of ignoring uncertainty are estimated for three uncertainties: carbon cap policy, load growth and natural gas prices. When an uncertainty is important, then explicitly considering those risks when making investments will result in better performance in expectation (positive expected cost of ignoring uncertainty). Furthermore, eliminating the uncertainty would improve strategies even further, meaning that improved forecasts of future conditions are valuable ( i.e., a positive expected value of information). Also, the value of policy coordination shows the difference between a strategy developed under the incorrect assumption of no carbon cap and a strategy correctly anticipating imposition of such a cap. For the second question, game theory models are formulated and the existence of optimistic (positive) biases in market equilibria (both competitive and oligopoly markets) are proved, in that calculated social welfare and producer profits will, in expectation, exceed the values that will actually be received

  20. Simulating Land Use Policies Targeted to Protect Biodiversity with the CLUE-Scanner Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, P.H.; Lesschen, J.P.; Koomen, E.; Perez-Soba, M.

    2011-01-01

    This chapter presents an integrated modelling approach for assessing land use changes and its effects on biodiversity. A modelling framework consisting of a macro-economic model, a land use change model, and biodiversity indicator models is described and illustrated with a scenario study for the

  1. The thyroid cancer policy model: A mathematical simulation model of papillary thyroid carcinoma in The U.S. population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carrie Lubitz

    Full Text Available Thyroid cancer affects over ½ million people in the U.S. and the incidence of thyroid cancer has increased worldwide at a rate higher than any other cancer, while survival has remained largely unchanged. The aim of this research was to develop, calibrate and verify a mathematical disease model to simulate the natural history of papillary thyroid cancer, which will serve as a platform to assess the effectiveness of clinical and cancer control interventions.Herein, we modeled the natural pre-clinical course of both benign and malignant thyroid nodules with biologically relevant health states from normal to detected nodule. Using established calibration techniques, optimal parameter sets for tumor growth characteristics, development rate, and detection rate were used to fit Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER incidence data and other calibration targets.Model outputs compared to calibration targets demonstrating sufficient calibration fit and model validation are presented including primary targets of SEER incidence data and size distribution at detection of malignancy. Additionally, we show the predicted underlying benign and malignant prevalence of nodules in the population, the probability of detection based on size of nodule, and estimates of growth over time in both benign and malignant nodules.This comprehensive model provides a dynamic platform employable for future comparative effectiveness research. Future model analyses will test and assess various clinical management strategies to improve patient outcomes related to thyroid cancer and optimize resource utilization for patients with thyroid nodules.

  2. The Brazil SimSmoke policy simulation model: the effect of strong tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in a middle income nation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Levy

    Full Text Available Brazil has reduced its smoking rate by about 50% in the last 20 y. During that time period, strong tobacco control policies were implemented. This paper estimates the effect of these stricter policies on smoking prevalence and associated premature mortality, and the effect that additional policies may have.The model was developed using the SimSmoke tobacco control policy model. Using policy, population, and smoking data for Brazil, the model assesses the effect on premature deaths of cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, mass media campaigns, marketing restrictions, packaging requirements, cessation treatment programs, and youth access restrictions. We estimate the effect of past policies relative to a counterfactual of policies kept to 1989 levels, and the effect of stricter future policies. Male and female smoking prevalence in Brazil have fallen by about half since 1989, which represents a 46% (lower and upper bounds: 28%-66% relative reduction compared to the 2010 prevalence under the counterfactual scenario of policies held to 1989 levels. Almost half of that 46% reduction is explained by price increases, 14% by smoke-free air laws, 14% by marketing restrictions, 8% by health warnings, 6% by mass media campaigns, and 10% by cessation treatment programs. As a result of the past policies, a total of almost 420,000 (260,000-715,000 deaths had been averted by 2010, increasing to almost 7 million (4.5 million-10.3 million deaths projected by 2050. Comparing future implementation of a set of stricter policies to a scenario with 2010 policies held constant, smoking prevalence by 2050 could be reduced by another 39% (29%-54%, and 1.3 million (0.9 million-2.0 million out of 9 million future premature deaths could be averted.Brazil provides one of the outstanding public health success stories in reducing deaths due to smoking, and serves as a model for other low and middle income nations. However, a set of stricter policies could further reduce

  3. The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence and deaths: the Argentina Tobacco Policy Simulation Model El papel de las políticas en la reducción de la prevalencia de tabaquismo y de las muertes asociadas: el modelo de simulación de políticas antitabáquicas de Argentina

    OpenAIRE

    Daniel Ferrante; David Levy; Armando Peruga; Christine Compton; Eduardo Romano

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To compare tobacco control policies independently and as a package through a simulation model to project smoking prevalence and associated future premature mortality in Argentina beginning in 2001. METHODS: A simulation model of tobacco control policies known as SimSmoke was modified using data for Argentina on population, fertility and mortality, smoking prevalence, and tobacco control policies in effect between 2001 and 2004. We used the Argentina Tobacco Policy Simulation model...

  4. Modeling environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, W.E.; McDonald, L.A.

    1997-01-01

    The eight book chapters demonstrate the link between the physical models of the environment and the policy analysis in support of policy making. Each chapter addresses an environmental policy issue using a quantitative modeling approach. The volume addresses three general areas of environmental policy - non-point source pollution in the agricultural sector, pollution generated in the extractive industries, and transboundary pollutants from burning fossil fuels. The book concludes by discussing the modeling efforts and the use of mathematical models in general. Chapters are entitled: modeling environmental policy: an introduction; modeling nonpoint source pollution in an integrated system (agri-ecological); modeling environmental and trade policy linkages: the case of EU and US agriculture; modeling ecosystem constraints in the Clean Water Act: a case study in Clearwater National Forest (subject to discharge from metal mining waste); costs and benefits of coke oven emission controls; modeling equilibria and risk under global environmental constraints (discussing energy and environmental interrelations); relative contribution of the enhanced greenhouse effect on the coastal changes in Louisiana; and the use of mathematical models in policy evaluations: comments. The paper on coke area emission controls has been abstracted separately for the IEA Coal Research CD-ROM

  5. Social Security reform: evaluating current proposals. Latest results of the EBRI-SSASIM2 policy simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copeland, C; VanDerhei, J; Salisbury, D L

    1999-06-01

    The present Social Security program has been shown to be financially unsustainable in the future without modification to the current program. The purpose of this Issue Brief, EBRI's fourth in a series on Social Security reform, is threefold: to illustrate new features of the EBRI-SSASIM2 policy simulation model not available in earlier EBRI publications, to expand quantitative analysis to specific proposals, and to evaluate the uncertainty involved in proposals that rely on equity investment. This analysis compares the Gregg/Breaux-Kolbe/Stenholm (GB-KS) and Moynihan/Kerrey proposals with three generic or "traditional" reforms: increasing taxes, reducing benefits, and/or increasing the retirement age. Both proposals would create individual accounts by "carving out" funds from current Social Security payroll taxes. This analysis also examines other proposed changes that would "add on" to existing Social Security funds through the use of general revenue transfers and/or investment in the equities market. President Clinton has proposed a general revenue transfer and the collective investment of some of the OASDI trust fund assets in equities. Reps. Archer and Shaw have proposed a general revenue tax credit to establish individual accounts that would be invested partially in the equities markets. When comparing Social Security reform proposals that would specifically alter benefit levels, the Moynihan/Kerrey bill compares quite favorably with the other proposals in both benefit levels and payback ratios, when individuals elect to use the individual account option. In contrast, the GB-KS bills do not compare quite as favorably for their benefit levels, but do compare favorably in terms of payback ratios. An important comparison in these bills is the administrative costs of managing the individual accounts, since benefits can be lowered by up to 23 percent when going from the assumed low to high administrative costs. Moreover, allowing individuals to decide whether to

  6. Simulating Policy Processes through Electronic Mail.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flynn, John P.

    1987-01-01

    Focuses on the use of electronic mail for teaching and learning about social welfare policy processes and compares electronic mail as a simulation medium to more structured computer applications. (Author)

  7. monetary policy and macroeconomic management: a simulation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Admin

    Endogenous. Xa. Agricultural export. Endogenous. Lma. Capital goods import. Endogenous. Lmb. Consumer goods import. Exogenous. Ms money supply. Exogenous. Cremn. Credit to manufacturing sector. Exogenous. MONETARY POLICY AND MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT: A SIMULATION EXPERIMENT. 5 ...

  8. The Model of Gas Supply Capacity Simulation In Regional Energy Security Framework: Policy Studies PT. X Cirebon Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuryadin; Ronny Rahman Nitibaskara, Tb; Herdiansyah, Herdis; Sari, Ravita

    2017-10-01

    The needs of energy are increasing every year. The unavailability of energy will cause economic losses and weaken energy security. To overcome the availability of gas supply in the future, planning are cruacially needed. Therefore, it is necessary to approach the system, so that the process of gas distribution is running properly. In this research, system dynamic method will be used to measure how much supply capacity planning is needed until 2050, with parameters of demand in industrial, household and commercial sectors. From the model obtained PT.X Cirebon area in 2031 was not able to meet the needs of gas customers in the Cirebon region, as well as with Businnes as usual scenario, the ratio of gas fulfillment only until 2027. The implementation of the national energy policy that is the use of NRE as government intervention in the model is produced up to 2035 PT.X Cirebon area is still able to supply the gas needs of its customers.

  9. External Shocks and Macroeconomic Policy: Simulations with EUROMON

    OpenAIRE

    M. Demertzis; L. de Haan

    2001-01-01

    We carry out a number of policy simulations with DNB's multicountry model, EUROMON. With these simulations we aim to analyse the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal expansion in light of the current global downturn in the US and the Euro area. We thus run two types of simulations in which we examine first, the real and nominal effects of the interest rate reductions implemented over the past year (2002) in both the US and the EU and second compare, the effects of similar macro policies appli...

  10. Policy Simulation of the International Coffee Economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    HIGH7 ROUT I NE 1>COFFEE0QUTA2= COFFE §UTA2 EXCEPT tQHD5,C 2>ENAEO05 XSMO 5 EXAFREQH CEXBAEQ5Exl 4> COFFEE @QUOtA2= COFF W OCT7R Q0 >EXNME EXSAI4OT1HEE , 5...AD-AI1N 682 DEPARTMENT OF STATE. WASHINGTON DC OFFICE OF EXTERNAL-ETC F/8 5/3 POLICY SIMULATION OF THE INTERNATIONAL COFFEE ECONOMY.(U) 1981 W C...POLICY SIMULATION OF T=E INTERNATIONAL COFFEE ECONOMY: FINAL REPORT by Walter C. Labys* This final report describes the completed research of the coffee

  11. Using Collaborative Simulation Modeling to Develop a Web-Based Tool to Support Policy-Level Decision Making About Breast Cancer Screening Initiation Age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth S. Burnside MD, MPH, MS

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: There are no publicly available tools designed specifically to assist policy makers to make informed decisions about the optimal ages of breast cancer screening initiation for different populations of US women. Objective: To use three established simulation models to develop a web-based tool called Mammo OUTPuT. Methods: The simulation models use the 1970 US birth cohort and common parameters for incidence, digital screening performance, and treatment effects. Outcomes include breast cancers diagnosed, breast cancer deaths averted, breast cancer mortality reduction, false-positive mammograms, benign biopsies, and overdiagnosis. The Mammo OUTPuT tool displays these outcomes for combinations of age at screening initiation (every year from 40 to 49, annual versus biennial interval, lifetime versus 10-year horizon, and breast density, compared to waiting to start biennial screening at age 50 and continuing to 74. The tool was piloted by decision makers (n = 16 who completed surveys. Results: The tool demonstrates that benefits in the 40s increase linearly with earlier initiation age, without a specific threshold age. Likewise, the harms of screening increase monotonically with earlier ages of initiation in the 40s. The tool also shows users how the balance of benefits and harms varies with breast density. Surveys revealed that 100% of users (16/16 liked the appearance of the site; 94% (15/16 found the tool helpful; and 94% (15/16 would recommend the tool to a colleague. Conclusions: This tool synthesizes a representative subset of the most current CISNET (Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network simulation model outcomes to provide policy makers with quantitative data on the benefits and harms of screening women in the 40s. Ultimate decisions will depend on program goals, the population served, and informed judgments about the weight of benefits and harms.

  12. EMC Simulation and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Takehiro; Schibuya, Noboru

    The EMC simulation is now widely used in design stage of electronic equipment to reduce electromagnetic noise. As the calculated electromagnetic behaviors of the EMC simulator depends on the inputted EMC model of the equipment, the modeling technique is important to obtain effective results. In this paper, simple outline of the EMC simulator and EMC model are described. Some modeling techniques of EMC simulation are also described with an example of the EMC model which is shield box with aperture.

  13. Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of Coronary Artery Revascularisation Procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knuiman Matthew

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Treatments for coronary heart disease (CHD have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years with considerable change in the number and effectiveness of both medical and surgical treatments. This period has seen the rapid development and uptake of statin drugs and coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs that include Coronary Artery Bypass Graft procedures (CABGs and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCIs. It is difficult in an era of such rapid change to accurately forecast requirements for treatment services such as CARPs. In a previous paper we have described and outlined the use of a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for analyzing and predicting the requirements for CARPs for the population of Western Australia (Mannan et al, 2007. In this paper, we expand on the use of this model for forecasting CARPs in Western Australia with a focus on the lack of adequate performance of the (standard model for forecasting CARPs in a period during the mid 1990s when there were considerable changes to CARP technology and implementation policy and an exploration and demonstration of how the standard model may be adapted to achieve better performance. Methods Selected key CARP event model probabilities are modified based on information relating to changes in the effectiveness of CARPs from clinical trial evidence and an awareness of trends in policy and practice of CARPs. These modified model probabilities and the ones obtained by standard methods are used as inputs in our Markov simulation model. Results The projected numbers of CARPs in the population of Western Australia over 1995–99 only improve marginally when modifications to model probabilities are made to incorporate an increase in effectiveness of PCI procedures. However, the projected numbers improve substantially when, in addition, further modifications are incorporated that relate to the increased probability of a PCI procedure and the reduced probability of a CABG

  14. Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of coronary artery revascularisation procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannan, Haider R; Knuiman, Matthew; Hobbs, Michael

    2008-06-25

    Treatments for coronary heart disease (CHD) have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years with considerable change in the number and effectiveness of both medical and surgical treatments. This period has seen the rapid development and uptake of statin drugs and coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs) that include Coronary Artery Bypass Graft procedures (CABGs) and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCIs). It is difficult in an era of such rapid change to accurately forecast requirements for treatment services such as CARPs. In a previous paper we have described and outlined the use of a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for analyzing and predicting the requirements for CARPs for the population of Western Australia (Mannan et al, 2007). In this paper, we expand on the use of this model for forecasting CARPs in Western Australia with a focus on the lack of adequate performance of the (standard) model for forecasting CARPs in a period during the mid 1990s when there were considerable changes to CARP technology and implementation policy and an exploration and demonstration of how the standard model may be adapted to achieve better performance. Selected key CARP event model probabilities are modified based on information relating to changes in the effectiveness of CARPs from clinical trial evidence and an awareness of trends in policy and practice of CARPs. These modified model probabilities and the ones obtained by standard methods are used as inputs in our Markov simulation model. The projected numbers of CARPs in the population of Western Australia over 1995-99 only improve marginally when modifications to model probabilities are made to incorporate an increase in effectiveness of PCI procedures. However, the projected numbers improve substantially when, in addition, further modifications are incorporated that relate to the increased probability of a PCI procedure and the reduced probability of a CABG procedure stemming from changed CARP preference

  15. Simulation modeling and arena

    CERN Document Server

    Rossetti, Manuel D

    2015-01-01

    Emphasizes a hands-on approach to learning statistical analysis and model building through the use of comprehensive examples, problems sets, and software applications With a unique blend of theory and applications, Simulation Modeling and Arena®, Second Edition integrates coverage of statistical analysis and model building to emphasize the importance of both topics in simulation. Featuring introductory coverage on how simulation works and why it matters, the Second Edition expands coverage on static simulation and the applications of spreadsheets to perform simulation. The new edition als

  16. Simulation in Complex Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicholas, Paul; Ramsgaard Thomsen, Mette; Tamke, Martin

    2017-01-01

    This paper will discuss the role of simulation in extended architectural design modelling. As a framing paper, the aim is to present and discuss the role of integrated design simulation and feedback between design and simulation in a series of projects under the Complex Modelling framework. Complex...... Restraint developed for the research exhibition Complex Modelling, Meldahls Smedie Gallery, Copenhagen in 2016. Where the direct project aims and outcomes have been reported elsewhere, the aim for this paper is to discuss overarching strategies for working with design integrated simulation....

  17. Irrigation water policy analysis using a business simulation game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchholz, M.; Holst, G.; Musshoff, O.

    2016-10-01

    Despite numerous studies on farmers' responses to changing irrigation water policies, uncertainties remain about the potential of water pricing schemes and water quotas to reduce irrigation. Thus far, policy impact analysis is predominantly based upon rational choice models that assume behavioral assumptions, such as a perfectly rational profit-maximizing decision maker. Also, econometric techniques are applied which could lack internal validity due to uncontrolled field data. Furthermore, such techniques are not capable of identifying ill-designed policies prior to their implementation. With this in mind, we apply a business simulation game for ex ante policy impact analysis of irrigation water policies at the farm level. Our approach has the potential to reveal the policy-induced behavioral change of the participants in a controlled environment. To do so, we investigate how real farmers from Germany, in an economic experiment, respond to a water pricing scheme and a water quota intending to reduce irrigation. In the business simulation game, the participants manage a "virtual" cash-crop farm for which they make crop allocation and irrigation decisions during several production periods, while facing uncertain product prices and weather conditions. The results reveal that a water quota is able to reduce mean irrigation applications, while a water pricing scheme does not have an impact, even though both policies exhibit equal income effects for the farmers. However, both policies appear to increase the variation of irrigation applications. Compared to a perfectly rational profit-maximizing decision maker, the participants apply less irrigation on average, both when irrigation is not restricted and when a water pricing scheme applies. Moreover, the participants' risk attitude affects the irrigation decisions.

  18. Simulation in Complex Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicholas, Paul; Ramsgaard Thomsen, Mette; Tamke, Martin

    2017-01-01

    This paper will discuss the role of simulation in extended architectural design modelling. As a framing paper, the aim is to present and discuss the role of integrated design simulation and feedback between design and simulation in a series of projects under the Complex Modelling framework. Complex...... performance, engage with high degrees of interdependency and allow the emergence of design agency and feedback between the multiple scales of architectural construction. This paper presents examples for integrated design simulation from a series of projects including Lace Wall, A Bridge Too Far and Inflated...... Restraint developed for the research exhibition Complex Modelling, Meldahls Smedie Gallery, Copenhagen in 2016. Where the direct project aims and outcomes have been reported elsewhere, the aim for this paper is to discuss overarching strategies for working with design integrated simulation....

  19. Scientific Modeling and simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Diaz de la Rubia, Tomás

    2009-01-01

    Showcases the conceptual advantages of modeling which, coupled with the unprecedented computing power through simulations, allow scientists to tackle the formibable problems of our society, such as the search for hydrocarbons, understanding the structure of a virus, or the intersection between simulations and real data in extreme environments

  20. Cost-effectiveness of breast cancer screening policies using simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gocgun, Y; Banjevic, D; Taghipour, S; Montgomery, N; Harvey, B J; Jardine, A K S; Miller, A B

    2015-08-01

    In this paper, we study breast cancer screening policies using computer simulation. We developed a multi-state Markov model for breast cancer progression, considering both the screening and treatment stages of breast cancer. The parameters of our model were estimated through data from the Canadian National Breast Cancer Screening Study as well as data in the relevant literature. Using computer simulation, we evaluated various screening policies to study the impact of mammography screening for age-based subpopulations in Canada. We also performed sensitivity analysis to examine the impact of certain parameters on number of deaths and total costs. The analysis comparing screening policies reveals that a policy in which women belonging to the 40-49 age group are not screened, whereas those belonging to the 50-59 and 60-69 age groups are screened once every 5 years, outperforms others with respect to cost per life saved. Our analysis also indicates that increasing the screening frequencies for the 50-59 and 60-69 age groups decrease mortality, and that the average number of deaths generally decreases with an increase in screening frequency. We found that screening annually for all age groups is associated with the highest costs per life saved. Our analysis thus reveals that cost per life saved increases with an increase in screening frequency. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Computer Modeling and Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pronskikh, V. S. [Fermilab

    2014-05-09

    Verification and validation of computer codes and models used in simulation are two aspects of the scientific practice of high importance and have recently been discussed by philosophers of science. While verification is predominantly associated with the correctness of the way a model is represented by a computer code or algorithm, validation more often refers to model’s relation to the real world and its intended use. It has been argued that because complex simulations are generally not transparent to a practitioner, the Duhem problem can arise for verification and validation due to their entanglement; such an entanglement makes it impossible to distinguish whether a coding error or model’s general inadequacy to its target should be blamed in the case of the model failure. I argue that in order to disentangle verification and validation, a clear distinction between computer modeling (construction of mathematical computer models of elementary processes) and simulation (construction of models of composite objects and processes by means of numerical experimenting with them) needs to be made. Holding on to that distinction, I propose to relate verification (based on theoretical strategies such as inferences) to modeling and validation, which shares the common epistemology with experimentation, to simulation. To explain reasons of their intermittent entanglement I propose a weberian ideal-typical model of modeling and simulation as roles in practice. I suggest an approach to alleviate the Duhem problem for verification and validation generally applicable in practice and based on differences in epistemic strategies and scopes

  2. Automated Simulation Model Generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, Y.

    2013-01-01

    One of today's challenges in the field of modeling and simulation is to model increasingly larger and more complex systems. Complex models take long to develop and incur high costs. With the advances in data collection technologies and more popular use of computer-aided systems, more data has become

  3. From Predictive Models to Instructional Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rollinson, Joseph; Brunskill, Emma

    2015-01-01

    At their core, Intelligent Tutoring Systems consist of a student model and a policy. The student model captures the state of the student and the policy uses the student model to individualize instruction. Policies require different properties from the student model. For example, a mastery threshold policy requires the student model to have a way…

  4. AEGIS geologic simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foley, M.G.

    1982-01-01

    The Geologic Simulation Model (GSM) is used by the AEGIS (Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems) program at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory to simulate the dynamic geology and hydrology of a geologic nuclear waste repository site over a million-year period following repository closure. The GSM helps to organize geologic/hydrologic data; to focus attention on active natural processes by requiring their simulation; and, through interactive simulation and calibration, to reduce subjective evaluations of the geologic system. During each computer run, the GSM produces a million-year geologic history that is possible for the region and the repository site. In addition, the GSM records in permanent history files everything that occurred during that time span. Statistical analyses of data in the history files of several hundred simulations are used to classify typical evolutionary paths, to establish the probabilities associated with deviations from the typical paths, and to determine which types of perturbations of the geologic/hydrologic system, if any, are most likely to occur. These simulations will be evaluated by geologists familiar with the repository region to determine validity of the results. Perturbed systems that are determined to be the most realistic, within whatever probability limits are established, will be used for the analyses that involve radionuclide transport and dose models. The GSM is designed to be continuously refined and updated. Simulation models are site specific, and, although the submodels may have limited general applicability, the input data equirements necessitate detailed characterization of each site before application

  5. http://www.phrp.com.au/issues/february-2017-volume-27-issue-1-2/dynamic-simulation-modelling-of-policy-responses-to-reduce-alcohol-related-harms-rationale-and-procedure-for-a-participatory-approach/

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jo-An Atkinson

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Development of effective policy responses to address complex public health problems can be challenged by a lack of clarity about the interaction of risk factors driving the problem, differing views of stakeholders on the most appropriate and effective intervention approaches, a lack of evidence to support commonly implemented and acceptable intervention approaches, and a lack of acceptance of effective interventions. Consequently, political considerations, community advocacy and industry lobbying can contribute to a hotly contested debate about the most appropriate course of action; this can hinder consensus and give rise to policy resistance. The problem of alcohol misuse and its associated harms in New South Wales (NSW, Australia, provides a relevant example of such challenges. Dynamic simulation modelling is increasingly being valued by the health sector as a robust tool to support decision making to address complex problems. It allows policy makers to ask ‘what-if’ questions and test the potential impacts of different policy scenarios over time, before solutions are implemented in the real world. Participatory approaches to modelling enable researchers, policy makers, program planners, practitioners and consumer representatives to collaborate with expert modellers to ensure that models are transparent, incorporate diverse evidence and perspectives, are better aligned to the decision-support needs of policy makers, and can facilitate consensus building for action. This paper outlines a procedure for embedding stakeholder engagement and consensus building in the development of dynamic simulation models that can guide the development of effective, coordinated and acceptable policy responses to complex public health problems, such as alcohol-related harms in NSW.

  6. Validation of simulation models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rehman, Muniza; Pedersen, Stig Andur

    2012-01-01

    In philosophy of science, the interest for computational models and simulations has increased heavily during the past decades. Different positions regarding the validity of models have emerged but the views have not succeeded in capturing the diversity of validation methods. The wide variety...

  7. A Practical Method of Policy Analysis by Simulating Policy Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phelps, James L.

    2011-01-01

    This article focuses on a method of policy analysis that has evolved from the previous articles in this issue. The first section, "Toward a Theory of Educational Production," identifies concepts from science and achievement production to be incorporated into this policy analysis method. Building on Kuhn's (1970) discussion regarding paradigms, the…

  8. Model-based inflation forecasts and monetary policy rules

    OpenAIRE

    Wouters, Raf; Dombrecht, Michel

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, the interaction between inflation and monetary policy rules is analysed within the framework of a dynamic general equilibrium model derived from optimising behaviour and rational expectations. Using model simulations, it is illustrated that the control of monetary policy over the inflation process is strongly dependent on the role of forward looking expectations in the price and wage setting process and on the credibility of monetary policy in the expectation formation process ...

  9. Dynamic energy models and carbon mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilley, Luke A.

    In this dissertation I examine a specific class of energy models and their implications for carbon mitigation policies. The class of models includes a production function capable of reproducing the empirically observed phenomenon of short run rigidity of energy use in response to energy price changes and long run exibility of energy use in response to energy price changes. I use a theoretical model, parameterized using empirical data, to simulate economic performance under several tax regimes where taxes are levied on capital income, investment, and energy. I also investigate transitions from one tax regime to another. I find that energy taxes intended to reduce energy use can successfully achieve those goals with minimal or even positive impacts on macroeconomic performance. But the transition paths to new steady states are lengthy, making political commitment to such policies very challenging.

  10. PSH Transient Simulation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muljadi, Eduard [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-12-21

    PSH Transient Simulation Modeling presentation from the WPTO FY14 - FY16 Peer Review. Transient effects are an important consideration when designing a PSH system, yet numerical techniques for hydraulic transient analysis still need improvements for adjustable-speed (AS) reversible pump-turbine applications.

  11. Wake modeling and simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Madsen Aagaard, Helge; Larsen, Torben J.

    We present a consistent, physically based theory for the wake meandering phenomenon, which we consider of crucial importance for the overall description of wind turbine loadings in wind farms. In its present version the model is confined to single wake situations. The model philosophy does, howev...... methodology has been implemented in the aeroelastic code HAWC2, and example simulations of wake situations, from the small Tjæreborg wind farm, have been performed showing satisfactory agreement between predictions and measurements...

  12. Energy-economic policy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanstad, Alan H.

    2018-01-01

    Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.

  13. Modeling of global biomass policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gielen, D.; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies. (Author)

  14. Modeling of global biomass policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gielen, Dolf; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies

  15. Simulation - modeling - experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    After two workshops held in 2001 on the same topics, and in order to make a status of the advances in the domain of simulation and measurements, the main goals proposed for this workshop are: the presentation of the state-of-the-art of tools, methods and experiments in the domains of interest of the Gedepeon research group, the exchange of information about the possibilities of use of computer codes and facilities, about the understanding of physical and chemical phenomena, and about development and experiment needs. This document gathers 18 presentations (slides) among the 19 given at this workshop and dealing with: the deterministic and stochastic codes in reactor physics (Rimpault G.); MURE: an evolution code coupled with MCNP (Meplan O.); neutronic calculation of future reactors at EdF (Lecarpentier D.); advance status of the MCNP/TRIO-U neutronic/thermal-hydraulics coupling (Nuttin A.); the FLICA4/TRIPOLI4 thermal-hydraulics/neutronics coupling (Aniel S.); methods of disturbances and sensitivity analysis of nuclear data in reactor physics, application to VENUS-2 experimental reactor (Bidaud A.); modeling for the reliability improvement of an ADS accelerator (Biarotte J.L.); residual gas compensation of the space charge of intense beams (Ben Ismail A.); experimental determination and numerical modeling of phase equilibrium diagrams of interest in nuclear applications (Gachon J.C.); modeling of irradiation effects (Barbu A.); elastic limit and irradiation damage in Fe-Cr alloys: simulation and experiment (Pontikis V.); experimental measurements of spallation residues, comparison with Monte-Carlo simulation codes (Fallot M.); the spallation target-reactor coupling (Rimpault G.); tools and data (Grouiller J.P.); models in high energy transport codes: status and perspective (Leray S.); other ways of investigation for spallation (Audoin L.); neutrons and light particles production at intermediate energies (20-200 MeV) with iron, lead and uranium targets (Le Colley F

  16. Computer Based Modelling and Simulation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    leaving students. It is a probabilistic model. In the next part of this article, two more models - 'input/output model' used for production systems or economic studies and a. 'discrete event simulation model' are introduced. Aircraft Performance Model.

  17. Economic Models as Devices of Policy Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lasse Folke

    2013-01-01

    Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role...... the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept...

  18. The role of public policies in reducing smoking: the Minnesota SimSmoke tobacco policy model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, David T; Boyle, Raymond G; Abrams, David B

    2012-11-01

    Following the landmark lawsuit and settlement with the tobacco industry, Minnesota pursued the implementation of stricter tobacco control policies, including tax increases, mass media campaigns, smokefree air laws, and cessation treatment policies. Modeling is used to examine policy effects on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. To estimate the effect of tobacco control policies in Minnesota on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths using the SimSmoke simulation model. Minnesota data starting in 1993 are applied to SimSmoke, a simulation model used to examine the effect of tobacco control policies over time on smoking initiation and cessation. Upon validating the model against smoking prevalence, SimSmoke is used to distinguish the effect of policies implemented since 1993 on smoking prevalence. Using standard attribution methods, SimSmoke also estimates deaths averted as a result of the policies. SimSmoke predicts smoking prevalence accurately between 1993 and 2011. Since 1993, a relative reduction in smoking rates of 29% by 2011 and of 41% by 2041 can be attributed to tobacco control policies, mainly tax increases, smokefree air laws, media campaigns, and cessation treatment programs. Moreover, 48,000 smoking-attributable deaths will be averted by 2041. Minnesota SimSmoke demonstrates that tobacco control policies, especially taxes, have substantially reduced smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Taxes, smokefree air laws, mass media, cessation treatment policies, and youth-access enforcement contributed to the decline in prevalence and deaths averted, with the strongest component being taxes. With stronger policies, for example, increasing cigarette taxes to $4.00 per pack, Minnesota's smoking rate could be reduced by another 13%, and 7200 deaths could be averted by 2041. Copyright © 2012 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. A hybrid society model for simulating residential electricity consumption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Minjie [School of Electrical Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing (China); State Power Economic Research Institute, Beijing (China); Hu, Zhaoguang [State Power Economic Research Institute, Beijing (China); Wu, Junyong; Zhou, Yuhui [School of Electrical Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing (China)

    2008-12-15

    In this paper, a hybrid social model of econometric model and social influence model is proposed for evaluating the influence of pricing policy and public education policy on residential habit of electricity using in power resources management. And, a hybrid society simulation platform based on the proposed model, called residential electricity consumption multi-agent systems (RECMAS), is designed for simulating residential electricity consumption by multi-agent system. RECMAS is composed of consumer agent, power supplier agent, and policy maker agent. It provides the policy makers with a useful tool to evaluate power price policies and public education campaigns in different scenarios. According to an influenced diffusion mechanism, RECMAS can simulate the residential electricity demand-supply chain and analyze impacts of the factors on residential electricity consumption. Finally, the proposed method is used to simulate urban residential electricity consumption in China. (author)

  20. A hybrid society model for simulating residential electricity consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Minjie; Hu, Zhaoguang; Wu, Junyong; Zhou, Yuhui

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, a hybrid social model of econometric model and social influence model is proposed for evaluating the influence of pricing policy and public education policy on residential habit of electricity using in power resources management. And, a hybrid society simulation platform based on the proposed model, called residential electricity consumption multi-agent systems (RECMAS), is designed for simulating residential electricity consumption by multi-agent system. RECMAS is composed of consumer agent, power supplier agent, and policy maker agent. It provides the policy makers with a useful tool to evaluate power price policies and public education campaigns in different scenarios. According to an influenced diffusion mechanism, RECMAS can simulate the residential electricity demand-supply chain and analyze impacts of the factors on residential electricity consumption. Finally, the proposed method is used to simulate urban residential electricity consumption in China. (author)

  1. Policy, Personalities and Pedagogy: The Use of Simulation Games to Teach and Learn about Development Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinsen, Gerard; Overton, John

    2011-01-01

    Simulation games have a long history in education and are well suited to learning about negotiation, power, relationships and uncertain outcomes. This paper reflects on the experience of using a semester-long simulation game to introduce postgraduate students to development policy. It focuses on three issues identified in the literature--realism,…

  2. Simulation of an integrated age replacement and spare provisioning policy using SLAM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zohrul Kabir, A.B.M.; Farrash, S.H.A.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents a SLAM simulation model for determining a jointly optimal age replacement and spare part provisioning policy. The policy, referred to as a stocking policy, is formulated by combining age replacement policy with a continuous review (s, S) type inventory policy, where s is the stock reorder level and S is the maximum stock level. The optimal values of the decision variables are obtained by minimizing the total cost of replacement and inventory. The simulation procedure outlined in the paper can be used to model any operating situation having either a single item or a number of identical items. Results from a number of case problems specifically constructed by 5-factor second order rotatory design have been presented and the effects of different cost elements, item failure characteristics and lead time characteristics have been highlighted. For all case problems, optimal (s, S) policies to support the Barlow-Proschan age policy have also been determined. Simulation results clearly indicate the separate optimizations of replacement and spare provisioning policies do not ensure global optimality when total system cost has to be minimized

  3. An endogenous policy model of hierarchical government

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mazza, I.; van Winden, F.

    2008-01-01

    Endogenous policy models usually neglect that government policies are frequently the result of decisions taken at different tiers by different agents, each enjoying some degree of autonomy. In this paper, policies are the outcome of the choices made by two agents within a hierarchy. A legislator

  4. Towards increased policy relevance in energy modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worrell, Ernst; Ramesohl, Stephan; Boyd, Gale

    2003-07-29

    Historically, most energy models were reasonably equipped to assess the impact of a subsidy or change in taxation, but are often insufficient to assess the impact of more innovative policy instruments. We evaluate the models used to assess future energy use, focusing on industrial energy use. We explore approaches to engineering-economic analysis that could help improve the realism and policy relevance of engineering-economic modeling frameworks. We also explore solutions to strengthen the policy usefulness of engineering-economic analysis that can be built from a framework of multi-disciplinary cooperation. We focus on the so-called ''engineering-economic'' (or ''bottom-up'') models, as they include the amount of detail that is commonly needed to model policy scenarios. We identify research priorities for the modeling framework, technology representation in models, policy evaluation and modeling of decision-making behavior.

  5. Modelling and Simulation: An Overview

    OpenAIRE

    McAleer, Michael; Chan, Felix; Oxley, Les

    2013-01-01

    This discussion paper resulted in a publication in 'Selected Papers of the MSSANZ 19th Biennial Conference on Modelling and Simulation Mathematics and Computers in Simulation', 2013, pp. viii. The papers in this special issue of Mathematics and Computers in Simulation cover the following topics: improving judgmental adjustment of model-based forecasts, whether forecast updates are progressive, on a constrained mixture vector autoregressive model, whether all estimators are born equal: the emp...

  6. Notes on modeling and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Redondo, Antonio [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-03-10

    These notes present a high-level overview of how modeling and simulation are carried out by practitioners. The discussion is of a general nature; no specific techniques are examined but the activities associated with all modeling and simulation approaches are briefly addressed. There is also a discussion of validation and verification and, at the end, a section on why modeling and simulation are useful.

  7. Demographic Consequences of Gender Discrimination in China: Simulation Analysis of Policy Options

    OpenAIRE

    Quanbao, Jiang; Shuzhuo, Li; Marcus W., Feldman

    2011-01-01

    The large number of missing females in China, a consequence of gender discrimination, is having and will continue to have a profound effect on the country's population development. In this paper, we analyze the causes of this gender discrimination in terms of institutions, culture and, economy, and suggest public policies that might help eliminate gender discrimination. Using a population simulation model, we study the effect of public policies on the sex ratio at birth and excess female chil...

  8. A Model-Based Exploration and Policy Analysis Related to Prostitution and Human Trafficking

    OpenAIRE

    András Kővári; Erik Pruyt

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a model-based exploration and policy analysis related to prostitution and prostitution-related human trafficking. After a brief introduction to prostitution and prostitution-related human trafficking, the paper zooms in on the Dutch situation. A System Dynamics simulation model related to the Dutch situation developed to explore and provide policy insights is subsequently presented. Using the simulation model, policies are first of all tested, and preliminary conclusions a...

  9. Simulation Model of a Transient

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jauch, Clemens; Sørensen, Poul; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes the simulation model of a controller that enables an active-stall wind turbine to ride through transient faults. The simulated wind turbine is connected to a simple model of a power system. Certain fault scenarios are specified and the turbine shall be able to sustain operati...

  10. Cognitive models embedded in system simulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siegel, A.I.; Wolf, J.J.

    1982-01-01

    If we are to discuss and consider cognitive models, we must first come to grips with two questions: (1) What is cognition; (2) What is a model. Presumably, the answers to these questions can provide a basis for defining a cognitive model. Accordingly, this paper first places these two questions into perspective. Then, cognitive models are set within the context of computer simulation models and a number of computer simulations of cognitive processes are described. Finally, pervasive issues are discussed vis-a-vis cognitive modeling in the computer simulation context

  11. Exploiting Modelling and Simulation in Support of Cyber Defence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaver, M.H.A.; Boltjes, B.; Croom-Jonson, S.; Jonat, F.; Çankaya, Y.

    2014-01-01

    The rapidly evolving environment of Cyber threats against the NATO Alliance has necessitated a renewed focus on the development of Cyber Defence policy and capabilities. The NATO Modelling and Simulation Group is looking for ways to leverage Modelling and Simulation experience in research, analysis

  12. Simulation - modeling - experiment; Simulation - modelisation - experience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    After two workshops held in 2001 on the same topics, and in order to make a status of the advances in the domain of simulation and measurements, the main goals proposed for this workshop are: the presentation of the state-of-the-art of tools, methods and experiments in the domains of interest of the Gedepeon research group, the exchange of information about the possibilities of use of computer codes and facilities, about the understanding of physical and chemical phenomena, and about development and experiment needs. This document gathers 18 presentations (slides) among the 19 given at this workshop and dealing with: the deterministic and stochastic codes in reactor physics (Rimpault G.); MURE: an evolution code coupled with MCNP (Meplan O.); neutronic calculation of future reactors at EdF (Lecarpentier D.); advance status of the MCNP/TRIO-U neutronic/thermal-hydraulics coupling (Nuttin A.); the FLICA4/TRIPOLI4 thermal-hydraulics/neutronics coupling (Aniel S.); methods of disturbances and sensitivity analysis of nuclear data in reactor physics, application to VENUS-2 experimental reactor (Bidaud A.); modeling for the reliability improvement of an ADS accelerator (Biarotte J.L.); residual gas compensation of the space charge of intense beams (Ben Ismail A.); experimental determination and numerical modeling of phase equilibrium diagrams of interest in nuclear applications (Gachon J.C.); modeling of irradiation effects (Barbu A.); elastic limit and irradiation damage in Fe-Cr alloys: simulation and experiment (Pontikis V.); experimental measurements of spallation residues, comparison with Monte-Carlo simulation codes (Fallot M.); the spallation target-reactor coupling (Rimpault G.); tools and data (Grouiller J.P.); models in high energy transport codes: status and perspective (Leray S.); other ways of investigation for spallation (Audoin L.); neutrons and light particles production at intermediate energies (20-200 MeV) with iron, lead and uranium targets (Le Colley F

  13. Assessing The Policy Relevance of Regional Air Quality Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, T.

    This work presents a framework for discussing the policy relevance of models, and regional air quality models in particular. We define four criteria: 1) The scientific status of the model; 2) Its ability to address primary environmental concerns; 3) The position of modeled environmental issues on the political agenda; and 4) The role of scientific input into the policy process. This framework is applied to current work simulating the transport of nitric acid in Asia with the ATMOS-N model, to past studies on air pollution transport in Europe with the EMEP model, and to future applications of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) Models-3. The Lagrangian EMEP model provided critical input to the development of the 1994 Oslo and 1999 Gothenburg Protocols to the Convention on Long-Range Transbound- ary Air Pollution, as well as to the development of EU directives, via its role as a component of the RAINS integrated assessment model. Our work simulating reactive nitrogen in Asia follows the European example in part, with the choice of ATMOS-N, a regional Lagrangian model to calculate source-receptor relationships for the RAINS- Asia integrated assessment model. However, given differences between ATMOS-N and the EMEP model, as well as differences between the scientific and political cli- mates facing Europe ten years ago and Asia today, the role of these two models in the policy process is very different. We characterize the different aspects of policy relevance between these models using our framework, and consider how the current generation US EPA air quality model compares, in light of its Eulerian structure, dif- ferent objectives, and the policy context of the US.

  14. Multi-Agent Auction Based Simulation Tool for an Insurance Policy Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lavendelis Egons

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a simulation tool for automated interactions between insurance companies and their clients during the travel insurance buying process. Insurance deal evaluation model using price and insured risks has been developed based on the study of the Latvian insurance market. The proposed model is used together with well-known agent auction protocols, thus providing a multi-agent negotiation protocol. It allows automating one-to-many negotiations between client and insurance companies simulating electronic insurance policy marketplace. The simulation tool has been developed using the MASITS methodology and tool, thus providing a case study for the methodology and tool for a new type of systems

  15. World food prices and human development: Policy simulations for archetype low-income countries

    OpenAIRE

    Lofgren, Hans

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, world food prices have increased and fluctuated widely. This paper explores the impact of international food prices and domestic policies on Millennium Development Goal (MDG) and macro indicators for two archetype low-income countries, a net food exporter and a net food importer, using Maquette for MDG Simulations (MAMS), a Computable General Equilibrium model. The simulat...

  16. An evaluation model for low carbon island policy: The case of Taiwan's green transportation policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trappey, Amy J.C.; Trappey, Charles; Hsiao, C.T.; Ou, Jerry J.R.; Li, S.J.; Chen, Kevin W.P.

    2012-01-01

    Conserving energy and reducing carbon emissions have become the common responsibility of the international community. During the year 2010, the Taiwan government planned a four-year project budgeted at 300 million US dollars, called “The Penghu Low Carbon Island Development Project.” The policy objective is to use Penghu Island (population 85,000) as a test platform to evaluate new ways to conserve energy and reduce carbon emissions before attempting to replicate the policies on Taiwan Island. For Taiwan, a zero carbon island green transportation policy will regulate the total number of electric scooters, the total number of gasoline motorcycles, influence government subsidy incentives, and create the need for new motorcycle license issuing and control. These factors interact with each other to form a complex and dynamic system that impacts policy as well as the current way of life. In this study, a system dynamics approach is designed to construct a model for evaluating the green transportation policy on Penghu Island. Simulations are conducted to model green transportation system behavior and related policy effects in a smaller, controlled environment before creating policies for Taiwan Island that will impact the lives of over 23 million people. - Highlights: ► Provides an overview of Taiwan's Penghu Low Carbon Island Development Project. ► Develops a systems dynamics approach for green transportation policy assessment. ► Provides causal analysis of social, economic, and environmental factors. ► Demonstrates that the proposed policy cannot meet the CO 2 reduction goals. ► Alternative policies can be evaluated using the proposed approach.

  17. TREAT Modeling and Simulation Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeHart, Mark David [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-09-01

    This report summarizes a four-phase process used to describe the strategy in developing modeling and simulation software for the Transient Reactor Test Facility. The four phases of this research and development task are identified as (1) full core transient calculations with feedback, (2) experiment modeling, (3) full core plus experiment simulation and (4) quality assurance. The document describes the four phases, the relationship between these research phases, and anticipated needs within each phase.

  18. Effects of national energy policies on carbon dioxide emissions in a European internal electricity market: Results from a simulation model of the European power systems

    OpenAIRE

    Hoster, Frank

    1997-01-01

    This article considers the economic and environmental (in terms of CO2) effects of national energy policies in a European Single Market for electricity. It was found that the combined CO2/Energy-tax proposed by the European Commission would be able to stabilise the current volume of CO2-emissions in the electricity sector. A national single handed effort in introducing a CO2-tax to reduce the emissions was found to be ineffective in the long term and would be in addition allocative inefficien...

  19. FASTBUS simulation models in VHDL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appelquist, G.

    1992-11-01

    Four hardware simulation models implementing the FASTBUS protocol are described. The models are written in the VHDL hardware description language to obtain portability, i.e. without relations to any specific simulator. They include two complete FASTBUS devices, a full-duplex segment interconnect and ancillary logic for the segment. In addition, master and slave models using a high level interface to describe FASTBUS operations, are presented. With these models different configurations of FASTBUS systems can be evaluated and the FASTBUS transactions of new devices can be verified. (au)

  20. Policy modeling for industrial energy use

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worrell, Ernst; Park, Hi-Chun; Lee, Sang-Gon; Jung, Yonghun; Kato, Hiroyuki; Ramesohl, Stephan; Boyd, Gale; Eichhammer, Wolfgang; Nyboer, John; Jaccard, Mark; Nordqvist, Joakim; Boyd, Christopher; Klee, Howard; Anglani, Norma; Biermans, Gijs

    2003-03-01

    The international workshop on Policy Modeling for Industrial Energy Use was jointly organized by EETA (Professional Network for Engineering Economic Technology Analysis) and INEDIS (International Network for Energy Demand Analysis in the Industrial Sector). The workshop has helped to layout the needs and challenges to include policy more explicitly in energy-efficiency modeling. The current state-of-the-art models have a proven track record in forecasting future trends under conditions similar to those faced in the recent past. However, the future of energy policy in a climate-restrained world is likely to demand different and additional services to be provided by energy modelers. In this workshop some of the international models used to make energy consumption forecasts have been discussed as well as innovations to enable the modeling of policy scenarios. This was followed by the discussion of future challenges, new insights in the data needed to determine the inputs into energy model s, and methods to incorporate decision making and policy in the models. Based on the discussion the workshop participants came to the following conclusions and recommendations: Current energy models are already complex, and it is already difficult to collect the model inputs. Hence, new approaches should be transparent and not lead to extremely complex models that try to ''do everything''. The model structure will be determined by the questions that need to be answered. A good understanding of the decision making framework of policy makers and clear communication on the needs are essential to make any future energy modeling effort successful. There is a need to better understand the effects of policy on future energy use, emissions and the economy. To allow the inclusion of policy instruments in models, evaluation of programs and instruments is essential, and need to be included in the policy instrument design. Increased efforts are needed to better understand the

  1. Communicating Insights from Complex Simulation Models: A Gaming Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vennix, Jac A. M.; Geurts, Jac L. A.

    1987-01-01

    Describes design principles followed in developing an interactive microcomputer-based simulation to study financial and economic aspects of the Dutch social security system. The main goals are to improve participants' insights into the formal simulation model, and to improve policy development skills. Plans for future research are also discussed.…

  2. POLICY ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH USING SIMULATION TO ASSESS ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uchitel, Kirsten; Tanana, Heather

    2014-11-01

    This report examines the relationship between simulation-based science and judicial assessments of simulations or models supporting evaluations of environmental harms or risks, considering both how it exists currently and how it might be shaped in the future. This report considers the legal standards relevant to judicial assessments of simulation-based science and provides examples of the judicial application of those legal standards. Next, this report discusses the factors that inform whether there is a correlation between the sophistication of a challenged simulation and judicial support for that simulation. Finally, this report examines legal analysis of the broader issues that must be addressed for simulation-based science to be better understood and utilized in the context of judicial challenge and evaluation. !

  3. The Food and Agricultural Policy Simulator: The Poultry- and Egg-Sector Submodel

    OpenAIRE

    Salathe, Larry E.; Price, J. Michael; Gadson, Kenneth E.

    1983-01-01

    The poultry· and egg·sector submodel of USDA's Food and Agricultural Policy Simulator (FAPSIM) endogenously estimates supply, production, ending stocks, retail and wholesale prices, civilian consumption of chicken, turkey, and eggs, the number of layers on farms, the consumer price index for poultry, and cash receipts from marketing of poultry and eggs This article presents the model's structure, parameter estimates, and validation statistics The model predicts that a 200IDllhon-pound incre...

  4. Computer Based Modelling and Simulation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Most systems involve parameters and variables, which are random variables due to uncertainties. Probabilistic meth- ods are powerful in modelling such systems. In this second part, we describe probabilistic models and Monte Carlo simulation along with 'classical' matrix methods and differ- ential equations as most real ...

  5. Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2009-01-01

    This contribution presents an overview of sensitivity analysis of simulation models, including the estimation of gradients. It covers classic designs and their corresponding (meta)models; namely, resolution-III designs including fractional-factorial two-level designs for first-order polynomial

  6. Modelling and Simulation: An Overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.J. McAleer (Michael); F. Chan (Felix); L. Oxley (Les)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThe papers in this special issue of Mathematics and Computers in Simulation cover the following topics: improving judgmental adjustment of model-based forecasts, whether forecast updates are progressive, on a constrained mixture vector autoregressive model, whether all estimators are

  7. Maintaining environmental quality while expanding biomass production: Sub-regional U.S. policy simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso; Swinton, Scott M.; Izaurralde, R. César; Manowitz, David H.; Zhang, Xuesong

    2013-01-01

    This paper evaluates environmental policy effects on ligno-cellulosic biomass production and environmental outcomes using an integrated bioeconomic optimization model. The environmental policy integrated climate (EPIC) model is used to simulate crop yields and environmental indicators in current and future potential bioenergy cropping systems based on weather, topographic and soil data. The crop yield and environmental outcome parameters from EPIC are combined with biomass transport costs and economic parameters in a representative farmer profit-maximizing mathematical optimization model. The model is used to predict the impact of alternative policies on biomass production and environmental outcomes. We find that without environmental policy, rising biomass prices initially trigger production of annual crop residues, resulting in increased greenhouse gas emissions, soil erosion, and nutrient losses to surface and ground water. At higher biomass prices, perennial bioenergy crops replace annual crop residues as biomass sources, resulting in lower environmental impacts. Simulations of three environmental policies namely a carbon price, a no-till area subsidy, and a fertilizer tax reveal that only the carbon price policy systematically mitigates environmental impacts. The fertilizer tax is ineffectual and too costly to farmers. The no-till subsidy is effective only at low biomass prices and is too costly to government. - Highlights: ► Bioeconomic optimization model predicts how biomass production affects environment. ► Rising biomass production could impair climate and water quality. ► Environmental protection policies compared as biomass supply grows. ► Carbon price protects the environment cost-effectively as biomass supply expands

  8. Vehicle dynamics modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Schramm, Dieter; Bardini, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    The authors examine in detail the fundamentals and mathematical descriptions of the dynamics of automobiles. In this context different levels of complexity will be presented, starting with basic single-track models up to complex three-dimensional multi-body models. A particular focus is on the process of establishing mathematical models on the basis of real cars and the validation of simulation results. The methods presented are explained in detail by means of selected application scenarios.

  9. Modeling and Simulation: An Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Michael McAleer; Felix Chan; Les Oxley

    2013-01-01

    The papers in this special issue of Mathematics and Computers in Simulation cover the following topics. Improving judgmental adjustment of model-based forecasts, whether forecast updates are progressive, on a constrained mixture vector autoregressive model, whether all estimators are born equal. The empirical properties of some estimators of long memory, characterising trader manipulation in a limitorder driven market, measuring bias in a term-structure model of commodity prices through the c...

  10. Stochastic models: theory and simulation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Field, Richard V., Jr.

    2008-03-01

    Many problems in applied science and engineering involve physical phenomena that behave randomly in time and/or space. Examples are diverse and include turbulent flow over an aircraft wing, Earth climatology, material microstructure, and the financial markets. Mathematical models for these random phenomena are referred to as stochastic processes and/or random fields, and Monte Carlo simulation is the only general-purpose tool for solving problems of this type. The use of Monte Carlo simulation requires methods and algorithms to generate samples of the appropriate stochastic model; these samples then become inputs and/or boundary conditions to established deterministic simulation codes. While numerous algorithms and tools currently exist to generate samples of simple random variables and vectors, no cohesive simulation tool yet exists for generating samples of stochastic processes and/or random fields. There are two objectives of this report. First, we provide some theoretical background on stochastic processes and random fields that can be used to model phenomena that are random in space and/or time. Second, we provide simple algorithms that can be used to generate independent samples of general stochastic models. The theory and simulation of random variables and vectors is also reviewed for completeness.

  11. Code modernization and modularization of APEX and SWAT watershed simulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and APEX (Agricultural Policy / Environmental eXtender) are respectively large and small watershed simulation models derived from EPIC Environmental Policy Integrated Climate), a field-scale agroecology simulation model. All three models are coded in FORTRAN an...

  12. Modeling Hepatitis C treatment policy.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuypers, Marshall A.; Lambert, Gregory Joseph; Moore, Thomas W.; Glass, Robert John,; Finley, Patrick D.; Ross, David; Chartier, Maggie

    2013-09-01

    Chronic infection with Hepatitis C virus (HCV) results in cirrhosis, liver cancer and death. As the nations largest provider of care for HCV, US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) invests extensive resources in the diagnosis and treatment of the disease. This report documents modeling and analysis of HCV treatment dynamics performed for the VHA aimed at improving service delivery efficiency. System dynamics modeling of disease treatment demonstrated the benefits of early detection and the role of comorbidities in disease progress and patient mortality. Preliminary modeling showed that adherence to rigorous treatment protocols is a primary determinant of treatment success. In depth meta-analysis revealed correlations of adherence and various psycho-social factors. This initial meta-analysis indicates areas where substantial improvement in patient outcomes can potentially result from VA programs which incorporate these factors into their design.

  13. Model for Simulation Atmospheric Turbulence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundtang Petersen, Erik

    1976-01-01

    A method that produces realistic simulations of atmospheric turbulence is developed and analyzed. The procedure makes use of a generalized spectral analysis, often called a proper orthogonal decomposition or the Karhunen-Loève expansion. A set of criteria, emphasizing a realistic appearance...... eigenfunctions and estimates of the distributions of the corresponding expansion coefficients. The simulation method utilizes the eigenfunction expansion procedure to produce preliminary time histories of the three velocity components simultaneously. As a final step, a spectral shaping procedure is then applied....... The method is unique in modeling the three velocity components simultaneously, and it is found that important cross-statistical features are reasonably well-behaved. It is concluded that the model provides a practical, operational simulator of atmospheric turbulence....

  14. MODELLING, SIMULATING AND OPTIMIZING BOILERS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, K.; Condra, T.; Houbak, Niels

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes the modelling, simulating and optimizing including experimental verification as being carried out as part of a Ph.D. project being written resp. supervised by the authors. The work covers dynamic performance of both water-tube boilers and fire tube boilers. A detailed dynamic...... model of the boiler has been developed and simulations carried out by means of the Matlab integration routines. The model is prepared as a dynamic model consisting of both ordinary differential equations and algebraic equations, together formulated as a Differential-Algebraic-Equation system. Being able...... to operate a boiler plant dynamically means that the boiler designs must be able to absorb any fluctuations in water level and temperature gradients resulting from the pressure change in the boiler. On the one hand a large water-/steam space may be required, i.e. to build the boiler as big as possible. Due...

  15. MODELLING, SIMULATING AND OPTIMIZING BOILERS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, K.; Condra, T.; Houbak, Niels

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes the modelling, simulating and optimizing including experimental verification as being carried out as part of a Ph.D. project being written resp. supervised by the authors. The work covers dynamic performance of both water-tube boilers and fire tube boilers. A detailed dynamic...... to the internal pressure the consequence of the increased volume (i.e. water-/steam space) is an increased wall thickness in the pressure part of the boiler. The stresses introduced in the boiler pressure part as a result of the temperature gradients are proportional to the square of the wall thickness...... model of the boiler has been developed and simulations carried out by means of the Matlab integration routines. The model is prepared as a dynamic model consisting of both ordinary differential equations and algebraic equations, together formulated as a Differential-Algebraic-Equation system. Being able...

  16. Modeling control in manufacturing simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zee, Durk-Jouke van der; Chick, S.; Sánchez, P.J.; Ferrin, D.; Morrice, D.J.

    2003-01-01

    A significant shortcoming of traditional simulation languages is the lack of attention paid to the modeling of control structures, i.e., the humans or systems responsible for manufacturing planning and control, their activities and the mutual tuning of their activities. Mostly they are hard coded

  17. A Simple Forecasting Model Linking Macroeconomic Policy to Industrial Employment Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malley, James R.; Hady, Thomas F.

    A study detailed further a model linking monetary and fiscal policy to industrial employment in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas of four United States regions. The model was used to simulate the impacts on area and regional employment of three events in the economy: changing real gross national product (GNP) via monetary policy, holding the…

  18. Merging Energy Policy Decision Support, Education, and Communication: The 'World Energy' Simulation Role-Playing Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooney-varga, J. N.; Franck, T.; Jones, A.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.

    2013-12-01

    To meet international goals for climate change mitigation and adaptation, as well as energy access and equity, there is an urgent need to explore and define energy policy paths forward. Despite this need, students, citizens, and decision-makers often hold deeply flawed mental models of the energy and climate systems. Here we describe a simulation role-playing game, World Energy, that provides an immersive learning experience in which participants can create their own path forward for global energy policy and learn about the impact of their policy choices on carbon dioxide emissions, temperature rise, energy supply mix, energy prices, and energy demand. The game puts players in the decision-making roles of advisors to the United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative (drawn from international leaders from industry, governments, intergovernmental organizations, and citizens groups) and, using a state-of-the-art decision-support simulator, asks them to negotiate a plan for global energy policy. We use the En-ROADS (Energy Rapid Overview and Decision Support) simulator, which runs on a laptop computer in <0.1 sec. En-ROADS enables users to specify many factors, including R&D-driven cost reductions in fossil fuel-based, renewable, or carbon-neutral energy technologies; taxes and subsidies for different energy sources; performance standards and energy efficiency; emissions prices; policies to address other greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, etc.); and assumptions about GDP and population. In World Energy, participants must balance climate change mitigation goals with equity, prices and access to energy, and the political feasibility of policies. Initial results indicate participants gain insights into the dynamics of the energy and climate systems and greater understanding of the potential impacts policies.

  19. Simulation Models for Socioeconomic Inequalities in Health: A Systematic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niko Speybroeck

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: The emergence and evolution of socioeconomic inequalities in health involves multiple factors interacting with each other at different levels. Simulation models are suitable for studying such complex and dynamic systems and have the ability to test the impact of policy interventions in silico. Objective: To explore how simulation models were used in the field of socioeconomic inequalities in health. Methods: An electronic search of studies assessing socioeconomic inequalities in health using a simulation model was conducted. Characteristics of the simulation models were extracted and distinct simulation approaches were identified. As an illustration, a simple agent-based model of the emergence of socioeconomic differences in alcohol abuse was developed. Results: We found 61 studies published between 1989 and 2013. Ten different simulation approaches were identified. The agent-based model illustration showed that multilevel, reciprocal and indirect effects of social determinants on health can be modeled flexibly. Discussion and Conclusions: Based on the review, we discuss the utility of using simulation models for studying health inequalities, and refer to good modeling practices for developing such models. The review and the simulation model example suggest that the use of simulation models may enhance the understanding and debate about existing and new socioeconomic inequalities of health frameworks.

  20. A Modeling & Simulation Implementation Framework for Large-Scale Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Song Xiao

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Classical High Level Architecture (HLA systems are facing development problems for lack of supporting fine-grained component integration and interoperation in large-scale complex simulation applications. To provide efficient methods of this issue, an extensible, reusable and composable simulation framework is proposed. To promote the reusability from coarse-grained federate to fine-grained components, this paper proposes a modelling & simulation framework which consists of component-based architecture, modelling methods, and simulation services to support and simplify the process of complex simulation application construction. Moreover, a standard process and simulation tools are developed to ensure the rapid and effective development of simulation application.

  1. Agri‐environmental Policies to Meet Consumer Preferences in Japan: An Economic‐Biophysical Model Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetsuya Uetake

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Promoting environmentally friendly farming products is crucial to meeting consumer demand. Although governments implement policy measures to improve the environmental performance of the agriculture sector, theirimpacts are difficult to assess. This study analyses the performance of agri‐environmental policies in Japan, by using the OECD’s policy impact model and reference level framework. In particular, it identifies the environmental impacts of three simulated agri‐environmental policies based on farms’ characteristics. The results suggest that a policy mix of regulation and an incentive payment would reduce environmental impacts, suggesting that targeted approaches could improve the cost‐effectiveness of agri‐environmental policies.

  2. Validation process of simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    San Isidro, M. J.

    1998-01-01

    It is presented a methodology on empirical validation about any detailed simulation model. This king of validation it is always related with an experimental case. The empirical validation has a residual sense, because the conclusions are based on comparisons between simulated outputs and experimental measurements. This methodology will guide us to detect the fails of the simulation model. Furthermore, it can be used a guide in the design of posterior experiments. Three steps can be well differentiated: Sensitivity analysis. It can be made with a DSA, differential sensitivity analysis, and with a MCSA, Monte-Carlo sensitivity analysis. Looking the optimal domains of the input parameters. It has been developed a procedure based on the Monte-Carlo methods and Cluster techniques, to find the optimal domains of these parameters. Residual analysis. This analysis has been made on the time domain and on the frequency domain, it has been used the correlation analysis and spectral analysis. As application of this methodology, it is presented the validation carried out on a thermal simulation model on buildings, Esp., studying the behavior of building components on a Test Cell of LECE of CIEMAT. (Author) 17 refs

  3. Modeling and Simulation for Safeguards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swinhoe, Martyn T. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-07-26

    The purpose of this talk is to give an overview of the role of modeling and simulation in Safeguards R&D and introduce you to (some of) the tools used. Some definitions are: (1) Modeling - the representation, often mathematical, of a process, concept, or operation of a system, often implemented by a computer program; (2) Simulation - the representation of the behavior or characteristics of one system through the use of another system, especially a computer program designed for the purpose; and (3) Safeguards - the timely detection of diversion of significant quantities of nuclear material. The role of modeling and simulation are: (1) Calculate amounts of material (plant modeling); (2) Calculate signatures of nuclear material etc. (source terms); and (3) Detector performance (radiation transport and detection). Plant modeling software (e.g. FACSIM) gives the flows and amount of material stored at all parts of the process. In safeguards this allow us to calculate the expected uncertainty of the mass and evaluate the expected MUF. We can determine the measurement accuracy required to achieve a certain performance.

  4. Model continuity in discrete event simulation: A framework for model-driven development of simulation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cetinkaya, D; Verbraeck, A.; Seck, MD

    2015-01-01

    Most of the well-known modeling and simulation (M&S) methodologies state the importance of conceptual modeling in simulation studies, and they suggest the use of conceptual models during the simulation model development process. However, only a limited number of methodologies refers to how to

  5. Modelling mobility aspects of security policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartel, Pieter H.; van Eck, Pascal; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    Security policies are rules that constrain the behaviour of a system. Different, largely unrelated sets of rules typically govern the physical and logical worlds. However, increased hardware and software mobility forces us to consider those rules in an integrated fashion. We present SPIN models of

  6. Assessment of Molecular Modeling & Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-01-03

    This report reviews the development and applications of molecular and materials modeling in Europe and Japan in comparison to those in the United States. Topics covered include computational quantum chemistry, molecular simulations by molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo methods, mesoscale modeling of material domains, molecular-structure/macroscale property correlations like QSARs and QSPRs, and related information technologies like informatics and special-purpose molecular-modeling computers. The panel's findings include the following: The United States leads this field in many scientific areas. However, Canada has particular strengths in DFT methods and homogeneous catalysis; Europe in heterogeneous catalysis, mesoscale, and materials modeling; and Japan in materials modeling and special-purpose computing. Major government-industry initiatives are underway in Europe and Japan, notably in multi-scale materials modeling and in development of chemistry-capable ab-initio molecular dynamics codes.

  7. The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence and deaths: the Argentina Tobacco Policy Simulation Model El papel de las políticas en la reducción de la prevalencia de tabaquismo y de las muertes asociadas: el modelo de simulación de políticas antitabáquicas de Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Ferrante

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To compare tobacco control policies independently and as a package through a simulation model to project smoking prevalence and associated future premature mortality in Argentina beginning in 2001. METHODS: A simulation model of tobacco control policies known as SimSmoke was modified using data for Argentina on population, fertility and mortality, smoking prevalence, and tobacco control policies in effect between 2001 and 2004. We used the Argentina Tobacco Policy Simulation model (ATPSM to consider the effect on smoking prevalence of changes in taxes and prices, clean air laws, media campaigns, cessation programs, and youth access policies on smoking initiation and cessation rates. Smoking prevalence and relative risks of smoking were used to estimate smoking-attributable mortality. The ATPSM was used to project smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths during the period 2001-2034. RESULTS: The largest reductions in smoking prevalence and premature mortality were predicted for a comprehensive tobacco control policy package, but relative reductions of as much as 30% were also predicted for large tax increases. Adding a media campaign along with programs to publicize and enforce clean air laws, advertising bans, and youth access laws would further reduce smoking rates by up to 45% by the year 2034, and would save almost 16 000 lives per year. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco control policies can substantially reduce smoking rates, which can save many lives. Without such policies, deaths from smoking, and associated medical costs, will increase. The ATPSM is expected to provide guidance in filling the most important information gaps pertinent to both modeling and policy-making in Argentina, e.g., the lack of data on initiation and cessation rates, and the need for studies on the impact of policies. Similar models might be developed for other Latin American countries.OBJETIVOS: Se compararon las políticas de control del tabaco

  8. The Crucible simulation: Behavioral simulation improves clinical leadership skills and understanding of complex health policy change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Daniel; Vlaev, Ivo; McMahon, Laurie; Harvey, Sarah; Mitchell, Andy; Borovoi, Leah; Darzi, Ara

    2017-05-11

    The Health and Social Care Act 2012 represents the most complex National Health Service reforms in history. High-quality clinical leadership is important for successful implementation of health service reform. However, little is known about the effectiveness of current leadership training. This study describes the use of a behavioral simulation to improve the knowledge and leadership of a cohort of medical doctors expected to take leadership roles in the National Health Service. A day-long behavioral simulation (The Crucible) was developed and run based on a fictitious but realistic health economy. Participants completed pre- and postsimulation questionnaires generating qualitative and quantitative data. Leadership skills, knowledge, and behavior change processes described by the "theory of planned behavior" were self-assessed pre- and postsimulation. Sixty-nine medical doctors attended. Participants deemed the simulation immersive and relevant. Significant improvements were shown in perceived knowledge, capability, attitudes, subjective norms, intentions, and leadership competency following the program. Nearly one third of participants reported that they had implemented knowledge and skills from the simulation into practice within 4 weeks. This study systematically demonstrates the effectiveness of behavioral simulation for clinical management training and understanding of health policy reform. Potential future uses and strategies for analysis are discussed. High-quality care requires understanding of health systems and strong leadership. Policymakers should consider the use of behavioral simulation to improve understanding of health service reform and development of leadership skills in clinicians, who readily adopt skills from simulation into everyday practice.

  9. Simulating spin models on GPU

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigel, Martin

    2011-09-01

    Over the last couple of years it has been realized that the vast computational power of graphics processing units (GPUs) could be harvested for purposes other than the video game industry. This power, which at least nominally exceeds that of current CPUs by large factors, results from the relative simplicity of the GPU architectures as compared to CPUs, combined with a large number of parallel processing units on a single chip. To benefit from this setup for general computing purposes, the problems at hand need to be prepared in a way to profit from the inherent parallelism and hierarchical structure of memory accesses. In this contribution I discuss the performance potential for simulating spin models, such as the Ising model, on GPU as compared to conventional simulations on CPU.

  10. European Cohesion Policy: A Proposed Evaluation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina Bouroşu (Costăchescu

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The current approach of European Cohesion Policy (ECP is intended to be a bridge between different fields of study, emphasizing the intersection between "the public policy cycle, theories of new institutionalism and the new public management”. ECP can be viewed as a focal point between putting into practice the principles of the new governance theory, theories of economic convergence and divergence and the governance of common goods. After a short introduction of defining the concepts used, the author discussed on the created image of ECP by applying three different theories, focusing on the structural funds implementation system (SFIS, directing the discussion on the evaluation part of this policy, by proposing a model of performance evaluation of the system, in order to outline key principles for creating effective management mechanisms of ECP.

  11. The Timber Resource Inventory Model (TRIM): a projection model for timber supply and policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    P.L. Tedder; R.N. La Mont; J.C. Kincaid

    1987-01-01

    TRIM (Timber Resource Inventory Model) is a yield table projection system developed for timber supply projections and policy analysis. TRIM simulates timber growth, inventories, management and area changes, and removals over the projection period. Programs in the TRIM system, card-by-card descriptions of required inputs, table formats, and sample results are presented...

  12. Pricing Policy on Business Performance: A Study on Organizational Strategy Simulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murilo Alvarenga Oliveira

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an analysis of the relationship between different pricing policies and the results obtained with them within on Business Games. Beginning from a theoretical review that seeks to reunite concepts about pricing, policy and price definitions, it is proposed a model analysis of pricing decisions made by teams that participate in a Business Game. From the applying of this model on data collected in the game, it seeks to classify the pricing policies applied by the teams. Then the results are discussed and its relationship to literature is referred. There are also comments on the decision make default demonstrated by the teams participating in the game. The results obtained here confirm the literature, indicating the price policy as a helpful and valid tool to support marketing strategies. They also show the adhesion between the simulated environment in a Business Game and the features found in the real world, confirming the trend toward adoption of organizational strategy simulators as instruments in teaching and research in Administration.

  13. Projecting the effects of long-term care policy on the labor market participation of primary informal family caregivers of elderly with disability: insights from a dynamic simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ansah, John P; Matchar, David B; Malhotra, Rahul; Love, Sean R; Liu, Chang; Do, Young

    2016-03-23

    Using Singapore as a case study, this paper aims to understand the effects of the current long-term care policy and various alternative policy options on the labor market participation of primary informal family caregivers of elderly with disability. A model of the long-term care system in Singapore was developed using System Dynamics methodology. Under the current long-term care policy, by 2030, 6.9 percent of primary informal family caregivers (0.34 percent of the domestic labor supply) are expected to withdraw from the labor market. Alternative policy options reduce primary informal family caregiver labor market withdrawal; however, the number of workers required to scale up long-term care services is greater than the number of caregivers who can be expected to return to the labor market. Policymakers may face a dilemma between admitting more foreign workers to provide long-term care services and depending on primary informal family caregivers.

  14. Demographic Consequences of Gender Discrimination in China: Simulation Analysis of Policy Options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quanbao, Jiang; Shuzhuo, Li; Marcus W, Feldman

    2011-08-01

    The large number of missing females in China, a consequence of gender discrimination, is having and will continue to have a profound effect on the country's population development. In this paper, we analyze the causes of this gender discrimination in terms of institutions, culture and, economy, and suggest public policies that might help eliminate gender discrimination. Using a population simulation model, we study the effect of public policies on the sex ratio at birth and excess female child mortality, and the effect of gender discrimination on China's population development. We find that gender discrimination will decrease China's population size, number of births, and working age population, accelerate population aging and exacerbate the male marriage squeeze. These results provide theoretical support for suggesting that the government enact and implement public policies aimed at eliminating gender discrimination.

  15. System Dynamics Simulation of Large-Scale Generation System for Designing Wind Power Policy in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linna Hou

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the impacts of renewable energy policy on a large-scale power generation system, including thermal power, hydropower, and wind power generation. As one of the most important clean energy, wind energy has been rapidly developed in the world. But in recent years there is a serious waste of wind power equipment and investment in China leading to many problems in the industry from wind power planning to its integration. One way overcoming the difficulty is to analyze the influence of wind power policy on a generation system. This paper builds a system dynamics (SD model of energy generation to simulate the results of wind energy generation policies based on a complex system. And scenario analysis method is used to compare the effectiveness and efficiency of these policies. The case study shows that the combinations of lower portfolio goal and higher benchmark price and those of higher portfolio goal and lower benchmark price have large differences in both effectiveness and efficiency. On the other hand, the combinations of uniformly lower or higher portfolio goal and benchmark price have similar efficiency, but different effectiveness. Finally, an optimal policy combination can be chosen on the basis of policy analysis in the large-scale power system.

  16. Creating Simulated Microgravity Patient Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurst, Victor; Doerr, Harold K.; Bacal, Kira

    2004-01-01

    The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) has been tasked by the Space and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) to integrate medical simulation into 1) medical training for ground and flight crews and into 2) evaluations of medical procedures and equipment for the International Space Station (ISS). To do this, the MOST requires patient models that represent the physiological changes observed during spaceflight. Despite the presence of physiological data collected during spaceflight, there is no defined set of parameters that illustrate or mimic a 'space normal' patient. Methods: The MOST culled space-relevant medical literature and data from clinical studies performed in microgravity environments. The areas of focus for data collection were in the fields of cardiovascular, respiratory and renal physiology. Results: The MOST developed evidence-based patient models that mimic the physiology believed to be induced by human exposure to a microgravity environment. These models have been integrated into space-relevant scenarios using a human patient simulator and ISS medical resources. Discussion: Despite the lack of a set of physiological parameters representing 'space normal,' the MOST developed space-relevant patient models that mimic microgravity-induced changes in terrestrial physiology. These models are used in clinical scenarios that will medically train flight surgeons, biomedical flight controllers (biomedical engineers; BME) and, eventually, astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO).

  17. General introduction to simulation models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette

    2012-01-01

    Monte Carlo simulation can be defined as a representation of real life systems to gain insight into their functions and to investigate the effects of alternative conditions or actions on the modeled system. Models are a simplification of a system. Most often, it is best to use experiments and fie...... as support decision making. However, several other factors affect decision making such as, ethics, politics and economics. Furthermore, the insight gained when models are build leads to point out areas where knowledge is lacking....... of FMD spread that can provide useful and trustworthy advises, there are four important issues, which the model should represent: 1) The herd structure of the country in question, 2) the dynamics of animal movements and contacts between herds, 3) the biology of the disease, and 4) the regulations...

  18. Advances in Intelligent Modelling and Simulation Simulation Tools and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Oplatková, Zuzana; Carvalho, Marco; Kisiel-Dorohinicki, Marek

    2012-01-01

    The human capacity to abstract complex systems and phenomena into simplified models has played a critical role in the rapid evolution of our modern industrial processes and scientific research. As a science and an art, Modelling and Simulation have been one of the core enablers of this remarkable human trace, and have become a topic of great importance for researchers and practitioners. This book was created to compile some of the most recent concepts, advances, challenges and ideas associated with Intelligent Modelling and Simulation frameworks, tools and applications. The first chapter discusses the important aspects of a human interaction and the correct interpretation of results during simulations. The second chapter gets to the heart of the analysis of entrepreneurship by means of agent-based modelling and simulations. The following three chapters bring together the central theme of simulation frameworks, first describing an agent-based simulation framework, then a simulator for electrical machines, and...

  19. Verifying and Validating Simulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-02-23

    This presentation is a high-level discussion of the Verification and Validation (V&V) of computational models. Definitions of V&V are given to emphasize that “validation” is never performed in a vacuum; it accounts, instead, for the current state-of-knowledge in the discipline considered. In particular comparisons between physical measurements and numerical predictions should account for their respective sources of uncertainty. The differences between error (bias), aleatoric uncertainty (randomness) and epistemic uncertainty (ignorance, lack-of- knowledge) are briefly discussed. Four types of uncertainty in physics and engineering are discussed: 1) experimental variability, 2) variability and randomness, 3) numerical uncertainty and 4) model-form uncertainty. Statistical sampling methods are available to propagate, and analyze, variability and randomness. Numerical uncertainty originates from the truncation error introduced by the discretization of partial differential equations in time and space. Model-form uncertainty is introduced by assumptions often formulated to render a complex problem more tractable and amenable to modeling and simulation. The discussion concludes with high-level guidance to assess the “credibility” of numerical simulations, which stems from the level of rigor with which these various sources of uncertainty are assessed and quantified.

  20. MODELLING, SIMULATING AND OPTIMIZING BOILERS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Kim; Condra, Thomas Joseph; Houbak, Niels

    2004-01-01

    In the present work a framework for optimizing the design of boilers for dynamic operation has been developed. A cost function to be minimized during the optimization has been formulated and for the present design variables related to the Boiler Volume and the Boiler load Gradient (i.e. ring rate...... on the boiler) have been dened. Furthermore a number of constraints related to: minimum and maximum boiler load gradient, minimum boiler size, Shrinking and Swelling and Steam Space Load have been dened. For dening the constraints related to the required boiler volume a dynamic model for simulating the boiler...... performance has been developed. Outputs from the simulations are shrinking and swelling of water level in the drum during for example a start-up of the boiler, these gures combined with the requirements with respect to allowable water level uctuations in the drum denes the requirements with respect to drum...

  1. Simulated annealing model of acupuncture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Charles; Szu, Harold

    2015-05-01

    The growth control singularity model suggests that acupuncture points (acupoints) originate from organizers in embryogenesis. Organizers are singular points in growth control. Acupuncture can cause perturbation of a system with effects similar to simulated annealing. In clinical trial, the goal of a treatment is to relieve certain disorder which corresponds to reaching certain local optimum in simulated annealing. The self-organizing effect of the system is limited and related to the person's general health and age. Perturbation at acupoints can lead a stronger local excitation (analogous to higher annealing temperature) compared to perturbation at non-singular points (placebo control points). Such difference diminishes as the number of perturbed points increases due to the wider distribution of the limited self-organizing activity. This model explains the following facts from systematic reviews of acupuncture trials: 1. Properly chosen single acupoint treatment for certain disorder can lead to highly repeatable efficacy above placebo 2. When multiple acupoints are used, the result can be highly repeatable if the patients are relatively healthy and young but are usually mixed if the patients are old, frail and have multiple disorders at the same time as the number of local optima or comorbidities increases. 3. As number of acupoints used increases, the efficacy difference between sham and real acupuncture often diminishes. It predicted that the efficacy of acupuncture is negatively correlated to the disease chronicity, severity and patient's age. This is the first biological - physical model of acupuncture which can predict and guide clinical acupuncture research.

  2. Coronary heart disease policy models: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Capewell Simon

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The prevention and treatment of coronary heart disease (CHD is complex. A variety of models have therefore been developed to try and explain past trends and predict future possibilities. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the strengths and limitations of existing CHD policy models. Methods A search strategy was developed, piloted and run in MEDLINE and EMBASE electronic databases, supplemented by manually searching reference lists of relevant articles and reviews. Two reviewers independently checked the papers for inclusion and appraisal. All CHD modelling studies were included which addressed a defined population and reported on one or more key outcomes (deaths prevented, life years gained, mortality, incidence, prevalence, disability or cost of treatment. Results In total, 75 articles describing 42 models were included; 12 (29% of the 42 models were micro-simulation, 8 (19% cell-based, and 8 (19% life table analyses, while 14 (33% used other modelling methods. Outcomes most commonly reported were cost-effectiveness (36%, numbers of deaths prevented (33%, life-years gained (23% or CHD incidence (23%. Among the 42 models, 29 (69% included one or more risk factors for primary prevention, while 8 (19% just considered CHD treatments. Only 5 (12% were comprehensive, considering both risk factors and treatments. The six best-developed models are summarised in this paper, all are considered in detail in the appendices. Conclusion Existing CHD policy models vary widely in their depth, breadth, quality, utility and versatility. Few models have been calibrated against observed data, replicated in different settings or adequately validated. Before being accepted as a policy aid, any CHD model should provide an explicit statement of its aims, assumptions, outputs, strengths and limitations.

  3. Assessing policies towards sustainable transport in Europe: an integrated model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zachariadis, Theodoros

    2005-01-01

    A transport simulation and forecast model is presented, which is designed for the assessment of policy options aiming to achieve sustainability in transportation. Starting from a simulation of the economic behaviour of consumers and producers within a microeconomic optimisation framework and the resulting calculation of the modal split, the allocation of the vehicle stock into vintages and technological groups is modelled. In a third step, a technology-oriented algorithm, which incorporates the relevant state-of-the-art knowledge in Europe, calculates emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases as well as appropriate indicators for traffic congestion, noise and road accidents. The paper outlines the methodology and the basic data sources used in connection with work done so far in Europe, presents the outlook according to a 'reference case' run for the 15 current European Union Member States up to 2030, displays aggregate results from a number of alternative scenarios and outlines elements of future work

  4. Impulse pumping modelling and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pierre, B; Gudmundsson, J S

    2010-01-01

    Impulse pumping is a new pumping method based on propagation of pressure waves. Of particular interest is the application of impulse pumping to artificial lift situations, where fluid is transported from wellbore to wellhead using pressure waves generated at wellhead. The motor driven element of an impulse pumping apparatus is therefore located at wellhead and can be separated from the flowline. Thus operation and maintenance of an impulse pump are facilitated. The paper describes the different elements of an impulse pumping apparatus, reviews the physical principles and details the modelling of the novel pumping method. Results from numerical simulations of propagation of pressure waves in water-filled pipelines are then presented for illustrating impulse pumping physical principles, and validating the described modelling with experimental data.

  5. Bridging experiments, models and simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carusi, Annamaria; Burrage, Kevin; Rodríguez, Blanca

    2012-01-01

    understanding of living organisms and also how they can reduce, replace, and refine animal experiments. A fundamental requirement to fulfill these expectations and achieve the full potential of computational physiology is a clear understanding of what models represent and how they can be validated. The present...... of biovariability; 2) testing and developing robust techniques and tools as a prerequisite to conducting physiological investigations; 3) defining and adopting standards to facilitate the interoperability of experiments, models, and simulations; 4) and understanding physiological validation as an iterative process...... that contributes to defining the specific aspects of cardiac electrophysiology the MSE system targets, rather than being only an external test, and that this is driven by advances in experimental and computational methods and the combination of both....

  6. Simulation of Farmers’ Response to Irrigation Water Pricing and Rationing Policies (Case Study: Zabol City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    abouzar parhizkari

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Considering that agricultural sector is the largest consumer of water, presenting integrated management for water resources and formulating effective policies to increase water productivity in this sector is essential. Therefore, using economic modeling , this study simulated the farmers’ responses to irrigation water pricing and rationing policies in Zabol city. To achieve the study purpose, the State Wide Agricultural Production Model and Positive Mathematical Programming were applied. The required data for the years 2010-2011 was collected by completing questionnaires and collecting data sets from the relevant agencies of Zabol city in personal attendance. The results showed that imposing irrigation water pricing and rationing policies in Zabol city leads to a reduction in the total cultivated area by 9/54 and 5/14 percent and a reduction in the water consumption by 6/23 and 7/01 percent, compared to the base year. Ultimately, irrigation water rationing policy, considering frugality of 18/9 million m3 of water, as the appropriate solution for the sustainability of water resources of Zabol city was proposed.

  7. Simulating the dynamic effect of land use and transport policies on the health of populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClure, Roderick J; Adriazola-Steil, Claudia; Mulvihill, Christine; Fitzharris, Michael; Salmon, Paul; Bonnington, C Paul; Stevenson, Mark

    2015-04-01

    We identified the features of a land use-transportation system that optimizes the health and well-being of the population. We developed a quantitative system dynamics model to represent relationships among land use, transport, economic development, and population health. Simulation experiments were conducted over a 10-year simulation period to compare the effect of different baseline conditions and land use-transport policies on the number of motor vehicle crash deaths and disability-adjusted life years lost. Optimal reduction in the public health burden attributable to land transport was demonstrated when transport safety risk reduction policies were combined with land use and transport polices that minimized reliance on individual motorized transport and maximized use of active transport modes. The model's results were particularly sensitive to the level of development that characterized each city at the start of the simulation period. Local, national, and international decision-makers are encouraged to address transport, land use, and health as an integrated whole to achieve the desired societal benefits of traffic safety, population health, and social equity.

  8. Modelling climate change policies : an application of ENERGY2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timilsina, G.; Bhargava, A.; Backus, G.

    2005-01-01

    Researches and policy-makers are increasingly analyzing the economic impacts of the Kyoto Protocol at national, regional and global levels. The analyses are generally based on numerical models integrating energy, environment and the economy. Most models range from partial equilibrium types to complex multi-sector general equilibrium models, and typically represent the energy sector at an aggregate level, which limits their ability to reflect details of different sectors. In Canada, a model called ENERGY2020 has been widely used by the federal and provincial governments to analyze the sectoral and provincial impacts of implementing the Kyoto Protocol. ENERGY2020 uses stocks and flows simulation that captures the physical aspects of the processes utilizing energy, as well as the qualitative choice theory which captures human behavioural aspects. The model also has a database containing 20 years of time-series on all economic, environmental and energy variables, enabling the model to derive most parameters endogenously through econometric estimations. It has the capacity to analyze consumer and business responses over a wide range of policy initiatives such as energy environment taxes, regulatory standards for buildings, equipment and motor vehicles, grants, rebates and subsidy initiatives, consumer awareness initiatives, technology improvements, moratoriums and mandated cut-backs. It is also capable of producing long-term energy market forecasts as well as analyzing the impacts of policies in the markets. It was concluded that the model's application will serve as a useful analytical tool for a range of issues, and may be useful to developing countries and economies in transition. 6 refs., 5 figs

  9. Distributed simulation a model driven engineering approach

    CERN Document Server

    Topçu, Okan; Oğuztüzün, Halit; Yilmaz, Levent

    2016-01-01

    Backed by substantive case studies, the novel approach to software engineering for distributed simulation outlined in this text demonstrates the potent synergies between model-driven techniques, simulation, intelligent agents, and computer systems development.

  10. Crowd Human Behavior for Modeling and Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-08-06

    Crowd Human Behavior for Modeling and Simulation Elizabeth Mezzacappa, Ph.D. & Gordon Cooke, MEME Target Behavioral Response Laboratory, ARDEC...TYPE Conference Presentation 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2008 to 00-00-2009 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Crowd Human Behavior for Modeling and Simulation...34understanding human behavior " and "model validation and verification" and will focus on modeling and simulation of crowds from a social scientist???s

  11. Examining Policies to Reduce Homelessness Using a General Equilibrium Model of the Housing Market

    OpenAIRE

    Mansur, Erin; Quigley, John M.; Raphael, Steven; Smolensky, Eugene

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, we use a general equilibrium simulation model to assess the potential impacts on homelessness of various housing-market policy interventions. We calibrate the model to the four largest metropolitan areas in California. We explore the welfare con- sequences and the effects on homelessness of three housing-market policy interventions: extending housing vouchers to all low-income households, subsidizing all landlords, and subsidizing those landlords who supply low-income housing. ...

  12. Simulation Model for DMEK Donor Preparation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mittal, Vikas; Mittal, Ruchi; Singh, Swati; Narang, Purvasha; Sridhar, Priti

    2018-04-09

    To demonstrate a simulation model for donor preparation in Descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty (DMEK). The inner transparent membrane of the onion (Allium cepa) was used as a simulation model for human Descemet membrane (DM). Surgical video (see Video, Supplemental Digital Content 1, http://links.lww.com/ICO/A663) demonstrating all the steps was recorded. This model closely simulates human DM and helps DMEK surgeons learn the nuances of DM donor preparation steps with ease. The technique is repeatable, and the model is cost-effective. The described simulation model can assist surgeons and eye bank technicians to learn steps in donor preparation in DMEK.

  13. Information Security Policy Modeling for Network Security Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry Sergeevich Chernyavskiy

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Policy management for network security systems (NSSs is one of the most topical issues of network security management. Incorrect configurations of NSSs lead to system outages and appearance of vulnerabilities. Moreover, policy management process is a time-consuming task, which includes significant amount of manual work. These factors reduce efficiency of NSSs’ utilization. The paper discusses peculiarities of policy management process and existing approaches to policy modeling, presents a model aimed to formalize policies for NSSs independently on NSSs’ platforms and select the most effective NSSs for implementation of the policies.

  14. Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Filipe, Joaquim; Kacprzyk, Janusz; Pina, Nuno

    2014-01-01

    This book includes extended and revised versions of a set of selected papers from the 2012 International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications (SIMULTECH 2012) which was sponsored by the Institute for Systems and Technologies of Information, Control and Communication (INSTICC) and held in Rome, Italy. SIMULTECH 2012 was technically co-sponsored by the Society for Modeling & Simulation International (SCS), GDR I3, Lionphant Simulation, Simulation Team and IFIP and held in cooperation with AIS Special Interest Group of Modeling and Simulation (AIS SIGMAS) and the Movimento Italiano Modellazione e Simulazione (MIMOS).

  15. An introduction to enterprise modeling and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ostic, J.K.; Cannon, C.E. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States). Technology Modeling and Analysis Group

    1996-09-01

    As part of an ongoing effort to continuously improve productivity, quality, and efficiency of both industry and Department of Energy enterprises, Los Alamos National Laboratory is investigating various manufacturing and business enterprise simulation methods. A number of enterprise simulation software models are being developed to enable engineering analysis of enterprise activities. In this document the authors define the scope of enterprise modeling and simulation efforts, and review recent work in enterprise simulation at Los Alamos National Laboratory as well as at other industrial, academic, and research institutions. References of enterprise modeling and simulation methods and a glossary of enterprise-related terms are provided.

  16. Structured building model reduction toward parallel simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobbs, Justin R. [Cornell University; Hencey, Brondon M. [Cornell University

    2013-08-26

    Building energy model reduction exchanges accuracy for improved simulation speed by reducing the number of dynamical equations. Parallel computing aims to improve simulation times without loss of accuracy but is poorly utilized by contemporary simulators and is inherently limited by inter-processor communication. This paper bridges these disparate techniques to implement efficient parallel building thermal simulation. We begin with a survey of three structured reduction approaches that compares their performance to a leading unstructured method. We then use structured model reduction to find thermal clusters in the building energy model and allocate processing resources. Experimental results demonstrate faster simulation and low error without any interprocessor communication.

  17. Interaction between fiscal and monetary policy in a dynamic nonlinear model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertella, Mario A; Rego, Henio A; Neris, Celso; Silva, Jonathas N; Podobnik, Boris; Stanley, H Eugene

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study is to verify the dynamics between fiscal policy, measured by public debt, and monetary policy, measured by a reaction function of a central bank. Changes in monetary policies due to deviations from their targets always generate fiscal impacts. We examine two policy reaction functions: the first related to inflation targets and the second related to economic growth targets. We find that the condition for stable equilibrium is more restrictive in the first case than in the second. We then apply our simulation model to Brazil and United Kingdom and find that the equilibrium is unstable in the Brazilian case but stable in the UK case.

  18. How Does Environmental Regulation Affect Industrial Transformation? A Study Based on the Methodology of Policy Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The difference of factor input structure determines different response to environmental regulation. This paper constructs a theoretical model including environmental regulation, factor input structure, and industrial transformation and conducts a policy simulation based on the difference of influencing mechanism of environmental regulation considering industrial heterogeneity. The findings show that the impact of environmental regulation on industrial transformation presents comparison of distortion effect of resource allocation and technology effect. Environmental regulation will promote industrial transformation when technology effect of environmental regulation is stronger than distortion effect of resource allocation. Particularly, command-control environmental regulation has a significant incentive effect and spillover effect of technological innovation on cleaning industries, but these effects do not exist in pollution-intensive industries. Command-control environmental regulation promotes industrial transformation. The result of simulation showed that environmental regulation of market incentives is similar to that of command-control.

  19. A physiological production model for cacao : results of model simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuidema, P.A.; Leffelaar, P.A.

    2002-01-01

    CASE2 is a physiological model for cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) growth and yield. This report introduces the CAcao Simulation Engine for water-limited production in a non-technical way and presents simulation results obtained with the model.

  20. Simulation modeling and analysis with Arena

    CERN Document Server

    Altiok, Tayfur

    2007-01-01

    Simulation Modeling and Analysis with Arena is a highly readable textbook which treats the essentials of the Monte Carlo discrete-event simulation methodology, and does so in the context of a popular Arena simulation environment.” It treats simulation modeling as an in-vitro laboratory that facilitates the understanding of complex systems and experimentation with what-if scenarios in order to estimate their performance metrics. The book contains chapters on the simulation modeling methodology and the underpinnings of discrete-event systems, as well as the relevant underlying probability, statistics, stochastic processes, input analysis, model validation and output analysis. All simulation-related concepts are illustrated in numerous Arena examples, encompassing production lines, manufacturing and inventory systems, transportation systems, and computer information systems in networked settings.· Introduces the concept of discrete event Monte Carlo simulation, the most commonly used methodology for modeli...

  1. Impact of future climate policy scenarios on air quality and aerosol-cloud interactions using an advanced version of CESM/CAM5: Part I. model evaluation for the current decadal simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; He, Jian; Zhang, Yang

    2017-03-01

    A version of the Community Earth System Model modified at the North Carolina State University (CESM-NCSU) is used to simulate the current and future atmosphere following the representative concentration partway scenarios for stabilization of radiative forcing at 4.5 W m-2 (RCP4.5) and radiative forcing of 8.5 W m-2 (RCP8.5). Part I describes the results from a comprehensive evaluation of current decadal simulations. Radiation and most meteorological variables are well simulated in CESM-NCSU. Cloud parameters are not as well simulated due in part to the tuning of model radiation and general biases in cloud variables common to all global chemistry-climate models. The concentrations of most inorganic aerosol species (i.e., SO42-, NH4+, and NO3-) are well simulated with normalized mean biases (NMBs) typically less than 20%. However, some notable exceptions are European NH4+, which is overpredicted by 33.0-42.2% due to high NH3 emissions and irreversible coarse mode condensation, and Cl-, that is negatively impacted by errors in emissions driven by wind speed and overpredicted HNO3. Carbonaceous aerosols are largely underpredicted following the RCP scenarios due to low emissions of black carbon, organic carbon, and anthropogenic volatile compounds in the RCP inventory and efficient wet removal. This results in underpredictions of PM2.5 and PM10 by 6.4-55.7%. The column mass abundances are reasonably well simulated. Larger biases occur in surface mixing ratios of trace gases in CESM-NCSU, likely due to numerical diffusion from the coarse grid spacing of the CESM-NCSU simulations or errors in the magnitudes and vertical structure of emissions. This is especially true for SO2 and NO2. The mixing ratio of O3 is overpredicted by 38.9-76.0% due to the limitations in the O3 deposition scheme used in CESM and insufficient titration resulted from large underpredictions in NO2. Despite these limitations, CESM-NCSU reproduces reasonably well the current atmosphere in terms of

  2. Affective Policy Performance Evaluation Model: A Case of an International Trade Policy Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inwon Kang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Firms often superficially adopt policies because of governmental rules and regulations, so as to avoid penalties or to gain benefits. However, the evaluation and characterization of those kinds of adoptions as policy performance distorts the true level of policy performance: social sustainability. This study proposes an affective policy performance evaluation model. The attitudes of employees toward adopting a policy are characterized into genuine and superficial compliance. Their behaviors are explained through voluntary and opportunistic adoptions. In order to validate the proposed model, a survey was conducted on an international trade policy target group (n = 216 for the Strategic Trade Control System (STCS, in order to understand their attitudes toward adopting the policy. The survey data was analyzed by a structural equation modeling method. The measures of the factors in the proposed model are adopted and modified from existing studies. The most effective resources of policy implementation on the firms’ genuine and superficial compliance and ultimately on the firms’ voluntary policy adoption are revealed through the analysis. Based on the results, this study presents a strategy for allocating and managing policy implementation resources to exclusively encourage firms’ trade policy adoptions.

  3. Modelling and simulation of a heat exchanger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Lei; Deabreu-Garcia, J. Alex; Hartley, Tom T.

    1991-01-01

    Two models for two different control systems are developed for a parallel heat exchanger. First by spatially lumping a heat exchanger model, a good approximate model which has a high system order is produced. Model reduction techniques are applied to these to obtain low order models that are suitable for dynamic analysis and control design. The simulation method is discussed to ensure a valid simulation result.

  4. An expert system for national economy model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roljić Lazo

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available There are some fundamental economic uncertainties. We cannot forecast economic events with a very high scientific precision. It is very clear that there does not exist a unique 'general' model, which can yield all answers to a wide range of macroeconomic issues. Therefore, we use several different kinds of models on segments of the macroeconomic problem. Different models can distinguish/solve economy desegregation, time series analysis and other subfactors involved in macroeconomic problem solving. A major issue becomes finding a meaningful method to link these econometric models. Macroeconomic models were linked through development of an Expert System for National Economy Model Simulations (ESNEMS. ESNEMS consists of five parts: (1 small-scale short-term national econometric model, (2 Methodology of Interactive Nonlinear Goal Programming (MINGP, (3 data-base of historical macro-economic aggregates, (4 software interface for interactive communications between a model and a decision maker, and (5 software for solving problems. ESNEMS was developed to model the optimum macro-economic policy of a developing country (SFRY-formerly Yugoslavia. Most econometric models are very complex. Optimizing of the economic policy is typically defined as a nonlinear goal programming problem. To solve/optimize these models, a new methodology, MINGP, was developed as a part of ESNEMS. MINGP is methodologically based on linear goal programming and feasible directions method. Using Euler's Homogeneous Function Theorem, MINGP linearizes nonlinear homogeneous functions. The highest priorities in minimizing the objective function are the growth of gross domestic product and the decrease of inflation. In the core of the optimization model, MINGP, there is a small-scale econometric model. This model was designed through analysis of the causal relations in the SFRY's social reproduction process of the past 20 years. The objective of the econometric model is to simulate

  5. Evaluating Energy Efficiency Policies with Energy-Economy Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mundaca, Luis; Neij, Lena; Worrell, Ernst; McNeil, Michael A.

    2010-08-01

    The growing complexities of energy systems, environmental problems and technology markets are driving and testing most energy-economy models to their limits. To further advance bottom-up models from a multidisciplinary energy efficiency policy evaluation perspective, we review and critically analyse bottom-up energy-economy models and corresponding evaluation studies on energy efficiency policies to induce technological change. We use the household sector as a case study. Our analysis focuses on decision frameworks for technology choice, type of evaluation being carried out, treatment of market and behavioural failures, evaluated policy instruments, and key determinants used to mimic policy instruments. Although the review confirms criticism related to energy-economy models (e.g. unrealistic representation of decision-making by consumers when choosing technologies), they provide valuable guidance for policy evaluation related to energy efficiency. Different areas to further advance models remain open, particularly related to modelling issues, techno-economic and environmental aspects, behavioural determinants, and policy considerations.

  6. VHDL simulation with access to transistor models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, J.

    1991-01-01

    Hardware description languages such as VHDL have evolved to aid in the design of systems with large numbers of elements and a wide range of electronic and logical abstractions. For high performance circuits, behavioral models may not be able to efficiently include enough detail to give designers confidence in a simulation's accuracy. One option is to provide a link between the VHDL environment and a transistor level simulation environment. The coupling of the Vantage Analysis Systems VHDL simulator and the NOVA simulator provides the combination of VHDL modeling and transistor modeling.

  7. Model Validation for Simulations of Vehicle Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-01

    jackknife”, Annals of Statistics, 7:1-26, 1979. [45] B. Efron and G. Gong, “A leisurely look at the bootstrap, the jackknife, and cross-validation”, The...battery model developed in the Automotive Research Center, a US Army Center of Excellence for modeling and simulation of ground vehicle systems...Sandia National Laboratories and a battery model developed in the Automotive Research Center, a US Army Center of Excellence for modeling and simulation

  8. Transient Modeling and Simulation of Compact Photobioreactors

    OpenAIRE

    Ribeiro, Robert Luis Lara; Mariano, André Bellin; Souza, Jeferson Avila; Vargas, Jose Viriato Coelho

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, a mathematical model is developed to make possible the simulation of microalgae growth and its dependency on medium temperature and light intensity. The model is utilized to simulate a compact photobioreactor response in time with physicochemical parameters of the microalgae Phaeodactylum tricornutum. The model allows for the prediction of the transient and local evolution of the biomass concentration in the photobioreactor with low computational time. As a result, the model is...

  9. Simulating Deforestation in Minas Gerais, Brazil, under Changing Government Policies and Socioeconomic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stan, Kayla; Sanchez-Azofeifa, Arturo; Espírito-Santo, Mário; Portillo-Quintero, Carlos

    2015-01-01

    Agricultural expansion is causing deforestation in Minas Gerais, Brazil, converting savanna and tropical dry forest to farmland, and in 2012, Brazil's Forest Code was revised with the government reducing deforestation restrictions. Understanding the effects of policy change on rates and locations of natural ecosystem loss is imperative. In this paper, deforestation in Minas Gerais was simulated annually until 2020 using Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EGO). This system is a state-of-the-art land use and cover change (LUCC) model which incorporates government policy, landscape maps, and other biophysical and anthropogenic datasets. Three studied scenarios: (i) business as usual, (ii) increased deforestation, and (iii) decreased deforestation showed more transition to agriculture from shrubland compared to forests, and consistent locations for most deforestation. The probability of conversion to agriculture is strongly tied to areas with the smallest patches of original biome remaining. Increases in agricultural revenue are projected to continue with a loss of 25% of the remaining Cerrado land in the next decade if profit is maximized. The addition of biodiversity value as a tax on land sale prices, estimated at over $750,000,000 USD using the cost of extracting and maintaining current species ex-situ, can save more than 1 million hectares of shrubland with minimal effects on the economy of the State of Minas Gerais. With environmental policy determining rates of deforestation and economics driving the location of land clearing, site-specific protection or market accounting of externalities is needed to balance economic development and conservation.

  10. Diversity modelling for electrical power system simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharip, R M; Abu Zarim, M A U A

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers diversity of generation and demand profiles against the different future energy scenarios and evaluates these on a technical basis. Compared to previous studies, this research applied a forecasting concept based on possible growth rates from publically electrical distribution scenarios concerning the UK. These scenarios were created by different bodies considering aspects such as environment, policy, regulation, economic and technical. In line with these scenarios, forecasting is on a long term timescale (up to every ten years from 2020 until 2050) in order to create a possible output of generation mix and demand profiles to be used as an appropriate boundary condition for the network simulation. The network considered is a segment of rural LV populated with a mixture of different housing types. The profiles for the 'future' energy and demand have been successfully modelled by applying a forecasting method. The network results under these profiles shows for the cases studied that even though the value of the power produced from each Micro-generation is often in line with the demand requirements of an individual dwelling there will be no problems arising from high penetration of Micro-generation and demand side management for each dwellings considered. The results obtained highlight the technical issues/changes for energy delivery and management to rural customers under the future energy scenarios

  11. Diversity modelling for electrical power system simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharip, R. M.; Abu Zarim, M. A. U. A.

    2013-12-01

    This paper considers diversity of generation and demand profiles against the different future energy scenarios and evaluates these on a technical basis. Compared to previous studies, this research applied a forecasting concept based on possible growth rates from publically electrical distribution scenarios concerning the UK. These scenarios were created by different bodies considering aspects such as environment, policy, regulation, economic and technical. In line with these scenarios, forecasting is on a long term timescale (up to every ten years from 2020 until 2050) in order to create a possible output of generation mix and demand profiles to be used as an appropriate boundary condition for the network simulation. The network considered is a segment of rural LV populated with a mixture of different housing types. The profiles for the 'future' energy and demand have been successfully modelled by applying a forecasting method. The network results under these profiles shows for the cases studied that even though the value of the power produced from each Micro-generation is often in line with the demand requirements of an individual dwelling there will be no problems arising from high penetration of Micro-generation and demand side management for each dwellings considered. The results obtained highlight the technical issues/changes for energy delivery and management to rural customers under the future energy scenarios.

  12. Discharge Fee Policy Analysis: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model of Water Resources and Water Environments

    OpenAIRE

    Guohua Fang; Ting Wang; Xinyi Si; Xin Wen; Yu Liu

    2016-01-01

    To alleviate increasingly serious water pollution and shortages in developing countries, various kinds of policies have been implemented by local governments. It is vital to quantify and evaluate the performance and potential economic impacts of these policies. This study develops a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the regional economic and environmental effects of discharge fees. Firstly, water resources and water environment factors are separated from the input and out...

  13. Transboundary air pollution in Asia: Model development and policy implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, Tracey

    2001-12-01

    This work investigates transboundary air pollution in Asia through atmospheric modeling and public policy analysis. As an example of models actively shaping environmental policy, the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution in Europe (LRTAP) is selected as a case study. The LRTAP Convention is the only mulit- lateral air pollution agreement to date, and results from the RAINS integrated assessment model were heavily used to calculate nationally differentiated emission ceilings. Atmospheric chemistry and transport are included in RAINS through the use of transfer coefficients (or ``source-receptor relationships'') relating pollutant transfer among European nations. Following past work with ATMOS to simulate sulfur species in Asia, here ATMOS is developed to include odd-nitrogen. Fitting with the linear structure of ATMOS and the emphasis on computational efficiency, a simplified chemical scheme developed for use in the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Global Chemical Transport Model (GFDL GCTM) is adopted. The method solves for the interconversions between NOx, HNO3, and PAN based on five reaction rates stored in look-up tables. ATMOS is used to calculate source-receptor relationships for Asia. Significant exchange of NOy occurs among China, North and South Korea, and Japan. On an annual average basis, China contributes 18% to Japan's total nitrate deposition, 46% to North Korea, and 26% to South Korea. Nitrate deposition is an important component of acidification (along with sulfate deposition), contributing 30-50% to the acid burden over most of Japan, and more than 50% to acid deposition in southeast Asia, where biomass burning emits high levels of NOx. In evaluating the policy-relevance of results from the ATMOS model, four factors are taken into account: the uncertainty and limitations of ATMOS, the environmental concerns facing Asia, the current status of the scientific community in relation to regional air pollution in the region, and

  14. Revising State Education Finance Systems: Simulating Policy Alternatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callahan, John J.; Goettel, Robert J.

    This paper examines several major State finance revisions and the procedures used to analyze their impact on school district per pupil expenditures, State aid, and local tax rates in New York, Massachusetts, and California. Policy alternatives include utilization of measures of educational need, municipal overburden factors in the general formula,…

  15. Experiences with a dialogue process between policy makers and global modellers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Daalen, C.E.; Thissen, W.A.H.; Berk, M.M.

    1998-01-01

    Between 1995 and 1997, a series of five workshops, henceforth called the Delft process, took place with the aim to explore and enhance use of the IMAGE 2 model to support international climate negotiations. The IMAGE 2 model is a multi-disciplinary, integrated model designed to simulate the dynamics of the global society-biosphere-climate system. The workshops facilitated a dialogue between policy makers and scientists involved in the development and applications of the IMAGE 2 model. In this way, policy makers would benefit from the policy makers on how to improve the policy relevance of the IMAGE 2 model. The evaluation at the end of the workshop series showed that participants have used information from the workshop at international negotiation conferences and in preparation of policy documents. The process shows that creating a forum for direct science-policy interactions can be very useful and productive, and has confirmed the importance of creating an open and constructive atmosphere between policy makers, and between policy makers and analysts, to enhance utilisation of scientific knowledge. The authors' analysis also suggests that many factors have to be 'in the right position at the right time and place' to achieve such a success, and that it is difficult to prevent the occurrence of biases in processes like this. 33 refs

  16. Whole-building Hygrothermal Simulation Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rode, Carsten; Grau, Karl

    2003-01-01

    An existing integrated simulation tool for dynamic thermal simulation of building was extended with a transient model for moisture release and uptake in building materials. Validation of the new model was begun with comparison against measurements in an outdoor test cell furnished with single...... materials. Almost quasi-steady, cyclic experiments were used to compare the indoor humidity variation and the numerical results of the integrated simulation tool with the new moisture model. Except for the case with chipboard as furnishing, the predictions of indoor humidity with the detailed model were...

  17. Simulation modeling for the health care manager.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Michael H

    2009-01-01

    This article addresses the use of simulation software to solve administrative problems faced by health care managers. Spreadsheet add-ins, process simulation software, and discrete event simulation software are available at a range of costs and complexity. All use the Monte Carlo method to realistically integrate probability distributions into models of the health care environment. Problems typically addressed by health care simulation modeling are facility planning, resource allocation, staffing, patient flow and wait time, routing and transportation, supply chain management, and process improvement.

  18. An analysis of household waste management policy using system dynamics modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inghels, Dirk; Dullaert, Wout

    2011-04-01

    This paper analyses the Flemish household waste management policy. Based on historical data from the period 1991-2006, literature reviews and interviews, both mathematical and descriptive relationships are derived that describe Flemish waste collection, reuse, recycling and disposal behaviour. This provides insights into how gross domestic product (GDP), population and selective collection behaviour have influenced household waste production and collection over time. These relationships are used to model the dynamic relationships underlying household waste management in Flanders by using a system dynamics (SD) modelling approach. Where most SD models in literature are conceptual and descriptive, in the present study a real-life case with both correlational and descriptive relationships was modelled for Flanders, a European region with an outstanding waste management track record. This model was used to evaluate the current Flemish household waste management policy based on the principles of the waste hierarchy, also referred as the Lansink ranking. The results show that Flemish household waste targets up to 2015 can be achieved by the current waste policy measures. It also shows the sensitivity of some key policy parameters such as prevention and reuse. Given the general nature of the model and its limited data requirements, the authors believe that the approach implemented in this model can also assist waste policy makers in other regions or countries to meet their policy targets by simulating the effect of their current and potential household waste policy measures.

  19. A Simulation of Readiness-Based Sparing Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-01

    until the next time step occurs. While employment of DES requires maintenance of a very lengthy event list, a proficiently coded list can be managed ...and the crucial role the event list plays in managing the simulation clock at run time. An initial event must be scheduled to initiate the simulation... Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE June 2017 3

  20. Modeling and simulation of blood collection systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfonso, Edgar; Xie, Xiaolan; Augusto, Vincent; Garraud, Olivier

    2012-03-01

    This paper addresses the modeling and simulation of blood collection systems in France for both fixed site and mobile blood collection with walk in whole blood donors and scheduled plasma and platelet donors. Petri net models are first proposed to precisely describe different blood collection processes, donor behaviors, their material/human resource requirements and relevant regulations. Petri net models are then enriched with quantitative modeling of donor arrivals, donor behaviors, activity times and resource capacity. Relevant performance indicators are defined. The resulting simulation models can be straightforwardly implemented with any simulation language. Numerical experiments are performed to show how the simulation models can be used to select, for different walk in donor arrival patterns, appropriate human resource planning and donor appointment strategies.

  1. Protection for the U.S. Automobile Industry: A Joint Class Simulation in Trade Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, Peter N.; Ortmayer, Louis M.

    A description of a joint class simulation in trade policy undertaken by an international economics class and a political science class at Davidson College (Pennsylvania) is presented in three sections. Section I describes the structure of the simulation. Students were divided into groups of United States auto manufacturers, the United Auto…

  2. Modeling and Simulation of Matrix Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Fu-rong; Klumpner, Christian; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2005-01-01

    This paper discusses the modeling and simulation of matrix converter. Two models of matrix converter are presented: one is based on indirect space vector modulation and the other is based on power balance equation. The basis of these two models is• given and the process on modeling is introduced...

  3. Maryland's Model Policy to Address Bullying, Harassment, or Intimidation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maryland State Department of Education, 2016

    2016-01-01

    In accordance with the provisions of Section 7-424.1 of the Education Article of the Annotated Code of Maryland, the Maryland State Board of Education has developed and adopted a Model Policy to address bullying, harassment, or intimidation. This report presents the Model Policy, which is organized into the following eight points: (1) Prohibition…

  4. Modeling policy mix to improve the competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roland Y H Silitonga

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this research is to develop a model that will explain the impact of government policies to the competitiveness of palm oil industry. The model involves two commodities in this industry, namely crude palm oil (CPO and refined palm oil (RPO, each has different added value. Design/methodology/approach: The model built will define the behavior of government in controlling palm oil industry, and their interactions with macro-environment, in order to improve the competitiveness of the industry. Therefore the first step was to map the main activities in this industry using value chain analysis. After that a conceptual model was built, where the output of the model is competitiveness of the industry based on market share. The third step was model formulation. The model is then utilized to simulate the policy mix given by government in improving the competitiveness of Palm Oil Industry. Research limitations/implications: The model was developed using only some policies which give direct impact to the competitiveness of the industry. For macro environment input, only price is considered in this model. Practical implications: The model can simulate the output of the industry for various government policies mix given to the industry. Originality/value: This research develops a model that can represent the structure and relationship between industry, government and macro environment, using value chain analysis and hierarchical multilevel system approach.

  5. Modeling policy mix to improve the competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silitonga, R. Y.H.; Siswanto, J.; Simatupang, T.; Bahagia, S.N.

    2016-07-01

    The purpose of this research is to develop a model that will explain the impact of government policies to the competitiveness of palm oil industry. The model involves two commodities in this industry, namely crude palm oil (CPO) and refined palm oil (RPO), each has different added value. The model built will define the behavior of government in controlling palm oil industry, and their interactions with macro-environment, in order to improve the competitiveness of the industry. Therefore the first step was to map the main activities in this industry using value chain analysis. After that a conceptual model was built, where the output of the model is competitiveness of the industry based on market share. The third step was model formulation. The model is then utilized to simulate the policy mix given by government in improving the competitiveness of Palm Oil Industry. The model was developed using only some policies which give direct impact to the competitiveness of the industry. For macro environment input, only price is considered in this model. The model can simulate the output of the industry for various government policies mix given to the industry. This research develops a model that can represent the structure and relationship between industry, government and macro environment, using value chain analysis and hierarchical multilevel system approach. (Author)

  6. Physically realistic modeling of maritime training simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Cieutat , Jean-Marc

    2003-01-01

    Maritime training simulation is an important matter of maritime teaching, which requires a lot of scientific and technical skills.In this framework, where the real time constraint has to be maintained, all physical phenomena cannot be studied; the most visual physical phenomena relating to the natural elements and the ship behaviour are reproduced only. Our swell model, based on a surface wave simulation approach, permits to simulate the shape and the propagation of a regular train of waves f...

  7. Systematic modelling and simulation of refrigeration systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Bjarne D.; Jakobsen, Arne

    1998-01-01

    The task of developing a simulation model of a refrigeration system can be very difficult and time consuming. In order for this process to be effective, a systematic method for developing the system model is required. This method should aim at guiding the developer to clarify the purpose of the s......The task of developing a simulation model of a refrigeration system can be very difficult and time consuming. In order for this process to be effective, a systematic method for developing the system model is required. This method should aim at guiding the developer to clarify the purpose...... of the simulation, to select appropriate component models and to set up the equations in a well-arranged way. In this paper the outline of such a method is proposed and examples showing the use of this method for simulation of refrigeration systems are given....

  8. Modelling inspection policies for building maintenance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christer, A H

    1982-08-01

    A method of assessing the potential of an inspection maintenance policy as opposed to an existing breakdown maintenance policy for a building complex is developed. The method is based upon information likely to be available and specific subjective assessments which could be made available. Estimates of the expected number of defects identified at an inspection and the consequential cost saving are presented as functions of the inspection frequency.

  9. Moving communities toward policy change: APPEAL's 4-prong policy change model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Elisa K; Lew, Rod

    2013-09-01

    Policy change is recognized for underlying much of the success of tobacco control. However, there is little evidence and attention on how Asian American and Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (AA and NHPI) communities may engage in policy change. Challenges for AA and NHPI communities include the racial/ethnic and geographic diversity, and tobacco data accurately representing the communities. Over the past decade, the Asian Pacific Partners for Empowerment, Advocacy and Leadership (APPEAL) has worked to develop and implement policy change for AA and NHPI communities. This article describes APPEAL's 4-prong policy change model, in the context of its overall strategic framework for policy change with communities that accounts for varying levels of readiness and leadership capacity, and targets four different levels of policy change (community, mainstream institution, legislative, and corporate). The health promotion implication of this framework for tobacco control policy engagement is for improving understanding of effective pathways to policy change, promoting innovative methods for policy analysis, and translating them into effective implementation and sustainability of policy initiatives. The APPEAL strategic framework can transcend into other communities and health topics that ultimately may contribute to the elimination of health disparities.

  10. Moving Communities Toward Policy Change: APPEAL’s 4-Prong Policy Change Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Elisa K.; Lew, Rod

    2014-01-01

    Policy change is recognized for underlying much of the success of tobacco control. However, there is little evidence and attention on how Asian American and Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (AA and NHPI) communities may engage in policy change. Challenges for AA and NHPI communities include the racial/ethnic and geographic diversity, and tobacco data accurately representing the communities. Over the past decade, the Asian Pacific Partners for Empowerment, Advocacy and Leadership (APPEAL) has worked to develop and implement policy change for AA and NHPI communities. This article describes APPEAL’s 4-prong policy change model, in the context of its overall strategic framework for policy change with communities that accounts for varying levels of readiness and leadership capacity, and targets four different levels of policy change (community, mainstream institution, legislative, and corporate). The health promotion implication of this framework for tobacco control policy engagement is for improving understanding of effective pathways to policy change, promoting innovative methods for policy analysis, and translating them into effective implementation and sustainability of policy initiatives. The APPEAL strategic framework can transcend into other communities and health topics that ultimately may contribute to the elimination of health disparities. PMID:23707962

  11. Towards policy relevant environmental modeling: contextual validity and pragmatic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Scott B.

    2000-01-01

    "What makes for a good model?" In various forms, this question is a question that, undoubtedly, many people, businesses, and institutions ponder with regards to their particular domain of modeling. One particular domain that is wrestling with this question is the multidisciplinary field of environmental modeling. Examples of environmental models range from models of contaminated ground water flow to the economic impact of natural disasters, such as earthquakes. One of the distinguishing claims of the field is the relevancy of environmental modeling to policy and environment-related decision-making in general. A pervasive view by both scientists and decision-makers is that a "good" model is one that is an accurate predictor. Thus, determining whether a model is "accurate" or "correct" is done by comparing model output to empirical observations. The expected outcome of this process, usually referred to as "validation" or "ground truthing," is a stamp on the model in question of "valid" or "not valid" that serves to indicate whether or not the model will be reliable before it is put into service in a decision-making context. In this paper, I begin by elaborating on the prevailing view of model validation and why this view must change. Drawing from concepts coming out of the studies of science and technology, I go on to propose a contextual view of validity that can overcome the problems associated with "ground truthing" models as an indicator of model goodness. The problem of how we talk about and determine model validity has much to do about how we perceive the utility of environmental models. In the remainder of the paper, I argue that we should adopt ideas of pragmatism in judging what makes for a good model and, in turn, developing good models. From such a perspective of model goodness, good environmental models should facilitate communication, convey—not bury or "eliminate"—uncertainties, and, thus, afford the active building of consensus decisions, instead

  12. Prostitution and Human Trafficking : A model-based exploration and policy analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kovari, A.; Pruyt, E.

    2012-01-01

    The meeting of the oldest profession with modern slavery is the topic of this paper. After a brief introduction to prostitution and prostitution-related human trafficking, this paper focuses on the Dutch policy debate. A System Dynamics simulation model related to the Dutch situation developed to

  13. Policy modeling for energy efficiency improvement in US industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worrell, Ernst; Price, Lynn; Ruth, Michael

    2001-01-01

    We are at the beginning of a process of evaluating and modeling the contribution of policies to improve energy efficiency. Three recent policy studies trying to assess the impact of energy efficiency policies in the United States are reviewed. The studies represent an important step in the analysis of climate change mitigation strategies. All studies model the estimated policy impact, rather than the policy itself. Often the policy impacts are based on assumptions, as the effects of a policy are not certain. Most models only incorporate economic (or price) tools, which recent studies have proven to be insufficient to estimate the impacts, costs and benefits of mitigation strategies. The reviewed studies are a first effort to capture the effects of non-price policies. The studies contribute to a better understanding of the role of policies in improving energy efficiency and mitigating climate change. All policy scenarios results in substantial energy savings compared to the baseline scenario used, as well as substantial net benefits to the U.S. economy

  14. Modeling and simulation of complex systems a framework for efficient agent-based modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Siegfried, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Robert Siegfried presents a framework for efficient agent-based modeling and simulation of complex systems. He compares different approaches for describing structure and dynamics of agent-based models in detail. Based on this evaluation the author introduces the "General Reference Model for Agent-based Modeling and Simulation" (GRAMS). Furthermore he presents parallel and distributed simulation approaches for execution of agent-based models -from small scale to very large scale. The author shows how agent-based models may be executed by different simulation engines that utilize underlying hard

  15. Magnetosphere Modeling: From Cartoons to Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gombosi, T. I.

    2017-12-01

    Over the last half a century physics-based global computer simulations became a bridge between experiment and basic theory and now it represents the "third pillar" of geospace research. Today, many of our scientific publications utilize large-scale simulations to interpret observations, test new ideas, plan campaigns, or design new instruments. Realistic simulations of the complex Sun-Earth system have been made possible by the dramatically increased power of both computing hardware and numerical algorithms. Early magnetosphere models were based on simple E&M concepts (like the Chapman-Ferraro cavity) and hydrodynamic analogies (bow shock). At the beginning of the space age current system models were developed culminating in the sophisticated Tsyganenko-type description of the magnetic configuration. The first 3D MHD simulations of the magnetosphere were published in the early 1980s. A decade later there were several competing global models that were able to reproduce many fundamental properties of the magnetosphere. The leading models included the impact of the ionosphere by using a height-integrated electric potential description. Dynamic coupling of global and regional models started in the early 2000s by integrating a ring current and a global magnetosphere model. It has been recognized for quite some time that plasma kinetic effects play an important role. Presently, global hybrid simulations of the dynamic magnetosphere are expected to be possible on exascale supercomputers, while fully kinetic simulations with realistic mass ratios are still decades away. In the 2010s several groups started to experiment with PIC simulations embedded in large-scale 3D MHD models. Presently this integrated MHD-PIC approach is at the forefront of magnetosphere simulations and this technique is expected to lead to some important advances in our understanding of magnetosheric physics. This talk will review the evolution of magnetosphere modeling from cartoons to current systems

  16. Computer Based Modelling and Simulation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A familiar example of a feedback loop is the business model in which part of the output or profit is fedback as input or additional capital - for instance, a company may choose to reinvest 10% of the profit for expansion of the business. Such simple models, like ..... would help scientists, engineers and managers towards better.

  17. Complex Simulation Model of Mobile Fading Channel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomas Marek

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In the mobile communication environment the mobile channel is the main limiting obstacle to reach the best performance of wireless system. Modeling of the radio channel consists of two basic fading mechanisms - Long-term fading and Short-term fading. The contribution deals with simulation of complex mobile radio channel, which is the channel with all fading components. Simulation model is based on Clarke-Gans theoretical model for fading channel and is developed in MATLAB environment. Simulation results have shown very good coincidence with theory. This model was developed for hybrid adaptation 3G uplink simulator (described in this issue during the research project VEGA - 1/0140/03.

  18. Simulation Model Development for Mail Screening Process

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Vargo, Trish; Marvin, Freeman; Kooistra, Scott

    2005-01-01

    STUDY OBJECTIVE: Provide decision analysis support to the Homeland Defense Business Unit, Special Projects Team, in developing a simulation model to help determine the most effective way to eliminate backlog...

  19. SEIR model simulation for Hepatitis B

    Science.gov (United States)

    Side, Syafruddin; Irwan, Mulbar, Usman; Sanusi, Wahidah

    2017-09-01

    Mathematical modelling and simulation for Hepatitis B discuss in this paper. Population devided by four variables, namely: Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered (SEIR). Several factors affect the population in this model is vaccination, immigration and emigration that occurred in the population. SEIR Model obtained Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) non-linear System 4-D which then reduces to 3-D. SEIR model simulation undertaken to predict the number of Hepatitis B cases. The results of the simulation indicates the number of Hepatitis B cases will increase and then decrease for several months. The result of simulation using the number of case in Makassar also found the basic reproduction number less than one, that means, Makassar city is not an endemic area of Hepatitis B.

  20. Simulation data mapping in virtual cardiac model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiquan, Liu; Jingyi, Feng; Duan, Huilong; Siping, Chen

    2004-01-01

    Although 3D heart and torso model with realistic geometry are basis of simulation computation in LFX virtual cardiac model, the simulation results are mostly output in 2D format. To solve such a problem and enhance the virtual reality of LFX virtual cardiac model, the methods of voxel mapping and vertex project mapping were presented. With these methods, excitation isochrone map (EIM) was mapped from heart model with realistic geometry to real visible man heart model, and body surface potential map (BSPM) was mapped from torso model with realistic geometry to real visible man body surface. By visualizing in the 4Dview, which is a real-time 3D medical image visualization platform, the visualization results of EIM and BSPM simulation data before and after mapping were also provided. According to the visualization results, the output format of EIM and BSPM simulation data of LFX virtual cardiac model were extended from 2D to 4D (spatio-temporal) and from cardiac model with realistic geometry to real cardiac model, and more realistic and effective simulation was achieved.

  1. Fully Adaptive Radar Modeling and Simulation Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-01

    AFRL-RY-WP-TR-2017-0074 FULLY ADAPTIVE RADAR MODELING AND SIMULATION DEVELOPMENT Kristine L. Bell and Anthony Kellems Metron, Inc...SMALL BUSINESS INNOVATION RESEARCH (SBIR) PHASE I REPORT. Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. See additional restrictions...2017 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE FULLY ADAPTIVE RADAR MODELING AND SIMULATION DEVELOPMENT 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER FA8650-16-M-1774 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c

  2. Theory, modeling, and simulation annual report, 1992

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-05-01

    This report briefly discusses research on the following topics: development of electronic structure methods; modeling molecular processes in clusters; modeling molecular processes in solution; modeling molecular processes in separations chemistry; modeling interfacial molecular processes; modeling molecular processes in the atmosphere; methods for periodic calculations on solids; chemistry and physics of minerals; graphical user interfaces for computational chemistry codes; visualization and analysis of molecular simulations; integrated computational chemistry environment; and benchmark computations.

  3. The Optimization of the Local Public Policies’ Development Process Through Modeling And Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minodora URSĂCESCU

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The local public policies development in Romania represents an empirically realized measure, the strategic management practices in this domain not being based on a scientific instrument capable to anticipate and evaluate the results of implementing a local public policy in a logic of needs-policies-effects type. Beginning from this motivation, the purpose of the paper resides in the reconceptualization of the public policies process on functioning principles of the dynamic systems with inverse connection, by means of mathematical modeling and techniques simulation. Therefore, the research is oriented in the direction of developing an optimization method for the local public policies development process, using as instruments the mathematical modeling and the techniques simulation. The research’s main results are on the one side constituted by generating a new process concept of the local public policies, and on the other side by proposing the conceptual model of a complex software product which will permit the parameterized modeling in a virtual environment of these policies development process. The informatic product’s finality resides in modeling and simulating each local public policy type, taking into account the respective policy’s characteristics, but also the value of their appliance environment parameters in a certain moment.

  4. Modeling of magnetic particle suspensions for simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Satoh, Akira

    2017-01-01

    The main objective of the book is to highlight the modeling of magnetic particles with different shapes and magnetic properties, to provide graduate students and young researchers information on the theoretical aspects and actual techniques for the treatment of magnetic particles in particle-based simulations. In simulation, we focus on the Monte Carlo, molecular dynamics, Brownian dynamics, lattice Boltzmann and stochastic rotation dynamics (multi-particle collision dynamics) methods. The latter two simulation methods can simulate both the particle motion and the ambient flow field simultaneously. In general, specialized knowledge can only be obtained in an effective manner under the supervision of an expert. The present book is written to play such a role for readers who wish to develop the skill of modeling magnetic particles and develop a computer simulation program using their own ability. This book is therefore a self-learning book for graduate students and young researchers. Armed with this knowledge,...

  5. Challenges for Modeling and Simulation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Johnson, James

    2002-01-01

    This document deals with modeling and stimulation. The strengths are study processes that rarely or never occur, evaluate a wide range of alternatives, generate new ideas, new concepts and innovative solutions...

  6. Development of a Computational Simulation Model for Conflict Management in Team Building

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. M. Wang

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Conflict management is one of the most important issues in leveraging organizational competitiveness. However, traditional social scientists built theories or models in this area which were mostly expressed in words and diagrams are insufficient. Social science research based on computational modeling and simulation is beginning to augment traditional theory building. Simulation provides a method for people to try their actions out in a way that is cost effective, faster, appropriate, flexible, and ethical. In this paper, a computational simulation model for conflict management in team building is presented. The model is designed and used to explore the individual performances related to the combination of individuals who have a range of conflict handling styles, under various types of resources and policies. The model is developed based on agent-based modeling method. Each of the agents has one of the five conflict handling styles: accommodation, compromise, competition, contingency, and learning. There are three types of scenarios: normal, convex, and concave. There are two types of policies: no policy, and a reward and punishment policy. Results from running the model are also presented. The simulation has led us to derive two implications concerning conflict management. First, a concave type of resource promotes competition, while convex type of resource promotes compromise and collaboration. Second, the performance ranking of different styles can be influenced by introducing different policies. On the other hand, it is possible for us to promote certain style by introducing different policies.

  7. Modelling and Simulation of Wave Loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    1985-01-01

    A simple model of the wave load on stender members of offshore structures is described . The wave elevation of the sea stateis modelled by a stationary Gaussian process. A new procedure to simulate realizations of the wave loads is developed. The simulation method assumes that the wave particle...... velocity can be approximated by a Gaussian Markov process. Known approximate results for the first passage density or equivalently, the distribution of the extremes of wave loads are presented and compared with rather precise simulation results. It is demonstrated that the approximate results...

  8. Modelling and Simulation of Wave Loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    velocity can be approximated by a Gaussian Markov process. Known approximate results for the first-passage density or equivalently, the distribution of the extremes of wave loads are presented and compared with rather precise simulation results. It is demonstrated that the approximate results......A simple model of the wave load on slender members of offshore structures is described. The wave elevation of the sea state is modelled by a stationary Gaussian process. A new procedure to simulate realizations of the wave loads is developed. The simulation method assumes that the wave particle...

  9. Modelling and Simulation of Wave Loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    1985-01-01

    velocity can be approximated by a Gaussian Markov process. Known approximate results for the first passage density or equivalently, the distribution of the extremes of wave loads are presented and compared with rather precise simulation results. It is demonstrated that the approximate results......A simple model of the wave load on stender members of offshore structures is described . The wave elevation of the sea stateis modelled by a stationary Gaussian process. A new procedure to simulate realizations of the wave loads is developed. The simulation method assumes that the wave particle...

  10. Modeling and simulation of discrete event systems

    CERN Document Server

    Choi, Byoung Kyu

    2013-01-01

    Computer modeling and simulation (M&S) allows engineers to study and analyze complex systems. Discrete-event system (DES)-M&S is used in modern management, industrial engineering, computer science, and the military. As computer speeds and memory capacity increase, so DES-M&S tools become more powerful and more widely used in solving real-life problems. Based on over 20 years of evolution within a classroom environment, as well as on decades-long experience in developing simulation-based solutions for high-tech industries, Modeling and Simulation of Discrete-Event Systems is the only book on

  11. Minimum-complexity helicopter simulation math model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffley, Robert K.; Mnich, Marc A.

    1988-01-01

    An example of a minimal complexity simulation helicopter math model is presented. Motivating factors are the computational delays, cost, and inflexibility of the very sophisticated math models now in common use. A helicopter model form is given which addresses each of these factors and provides better engineering understanding of the specific handling qualities features which are apparent to the simulator pilot. The technical approach begins with specification of features which are to be modeled, followed by a build up of individual vehicle components and definition of equations. Model matching and estimation procedures are given which enable the modeling of specific helicopters from basic data sources such as flight manuals. Checkout procedures are given which provide for total model validation. A number of possible model extensions and refinement are discussed. Math model computer programs are defined and listed.

  12. A simulation model for football championships

    OpenAIRE

    Koning, Ruud H.; Koolhaas, Michael; Renes, Gusta

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we discuss a simulation/probability model that identifies the team that is most likely to win a tournament. The model can also be used to answer other questions like ‘which team had a lucky draw?’ or ‘what is the probability that two teams meet at some moment in the tournament?’. Input to the simulation/probability model are scoring intensities, that are estimated as a weighted average of goals scored. The model has been used in practice to write articles for the popular press, ...

  13. Structure of a simulation model for energy-related regional assessment. [Pacific Northwest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraley, D.W.; Swift, W.H.

    1976-01-01

    The structure of a dynamic simulation model designed to analyze the effects of potential future energy policies and actions as a multistate, regional level is described. The simulation structure includes the interacting effects of energy development, energy- and macro-economics, and demography on land use, water resources, air quality, ecosystems, and society.

  14. Computer Based Modelling and Simulation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Modelling Deterministic Systems. N K Srinivasan gradu- ated from Indian. Institute of Science and obtained his Doctorate from Columbia Univer- sity, New York. He has taught in several universities, and later did system analysis, wargaming and simula- tion for defence. His other areas of interest are reliability engineer-.

  15. Modelling and simulating fire tube boiler performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, K.; Condra, T.; Houbak, Niels

    2003-01-01

    A model for a flue gas boiler covering the flue gas and the water-/steam side has been formulated. The model has been formulated as a number of sub models that are merged into an overall model for the complete boiler. Sub models have been defined for the furnace, the convection zone (split in 2......: a zone submerged in water and a zone covered by steam), a model for the material in the boiler (the steel) and 2 models for resp. the water/steam zone (the boiling) and the steam. The dynamic model has been developed as a number of Differential-Algebraic-Equation system (DAE). Subsequently Mat......Lab/Simulink has been applied for carrying out the simulations. To be able to verify the simulated results experiments has been carried out on a full scale boiler plant....

  16. Model Driven Development of Simulation Models : Defining and Transforming Conceptual Models into Simulation Models by Using Metamodels and Model Transformations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Küçükkeçeci Çetinkaya, D.

    2013-01-01

    Modeling and simulation (M&S) is an effective method for analyzing and designing systems and it is of interest to scientists and engineers from all disciplines. This thesis proposes the application of a model driven software development approach throughout the whole set of M&S activities and it

  17. Simulating effects of land use policies on extent of the wildland urban interface and wildfire risk in Flathead County, Montana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paveglio, Travis B; Prato, Tony; Hardy, Michael

    2013-11-30

    This study used a wildfire loss simulation model to evaluate how different land use policies are likely to influence wildfire risk in the wildland urban interface (WUI) for Flathead County, Montana. The model accounts for the complex socio-ecological interactions among climate change, economic growth, land use change and policy, homeowner mitigations, and forest treatments in Flathead County's WUI over the five 10-year subperiods comprising the future evaluation period (i.e., 2010-2059). Wildfire risk, defined as expected residential losses from wildfire [E(RLW)], depends on the number of residential properties on parcels, the probability that parcels burn, the probability of wildfire losses to residential structures on properties given the parcels on which those properties are located burn, the average percentage of wildfire-related losses in aesthetic values of residential properties, and the total value (structures plus land) of residential properties. E(RLW) for the five subperiods is simulated for 2010 (referred to as the current), moderately restrictive, and highly restrictive land use policy scenarios, a moderate economic growth scenario and the A2 greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Results demonstrate that increasingly restrictive land use policy for Flathead County significantly reduces the amount and footprint of future residential development in the WUI. In addition, shifting from the current to a moderately restrictive land use policy for Flathead County significantly reduces wildfire risk for the WUI, but shifting from the current to a highly restrictive land use policy does not significantly reduce wildfire risk in the WUI. Both the methods and results of the study can help land and wildfire managers to better manage future wildfire risk and identify residential areas having potentially high wildfire risk. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Simulation and modeling of turbulent flows

    CERN Document Server

    Gatski, Thomas B; Lumley, John L

    1996-01-01

    This book provides students and researchers in fluid engineering with an up-to-date overview of turbulent flow research in the areas of simulation and modeling. A key element of the book is the systematic, rational development of turbulence closure models and related aspects of modern turbulent flow theory and prediction. Starting with a review of the spectral dynamics of homogenous and inhomogeneous turbulent flows, succeeding chapters deal with numerical simulation techniques, renormalization group methods and turbulent closure modeling. Each chapter is authored by recognized leaders in their respective fields, and each provides a thorough and cohesive treatment of the subject.

  19. Dynamic modeling and simulation of wind turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghafari Seadat, M.H.; Kheradmand Keysami, M.; Lari, H.R.

    2002-01-01

    Using wind energy for generating electricity in wind turbines is a good way for using renewable energies. It can also help to protect the environment. The main objective of this paper is dynamic modeling by energy method and simulation of a wind turbine aided by computer. In this paper, the equations of motion are extracted for simulating the system of wind turbine and then the behavior of the system become obvious by solving the equations. The turbine is considered with three blade rotor in wind direction, induced generator that is connected to the network and constant revolution for simulation of wind turbine. Every part of the wind turbine should be simulated for simulation of wind turbine. The main parts are blades, gearbox, shafts and generator

  20. Hybrid simulation models of production networks

    CERN Document Server

    Kouikoglou, Vassilis S

    2001-01-01

    This book is concerned with a most important area of industrial production, that of analysis and optimization of production lines and networks using discrete-event models and simulation. The book introduces a novel approach that combines analytic models and discrete-event simulation. Unlike conventional piece-by-piece simulation, this method observes a reduced number of events between which the evolution of the system is tracked analytically. Using this hybrid approach, several models are developed for the analysis of production lines and networks. The hybrid approach combines speed and accuracy for exceptional analysis of most practical situations. A number of optimization problems, involving buffer design, workforce planning, and production control, are solved through the use of hybrid models.

  1. The behaviour of adaptive boneremodeling simulation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weinans, H.; Huiskes, R.; Grootenboer, H.J.

    1992-01-01

    The process of adaptive bone remodeling can be described mathematically and simulated in a computer model, integrated with the finite element method. In the model discussed here, cortical and trabecular bone are described as continuous materials with variable density. The remodeling rule applied to

  2. Analytical system dynamics modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Fabien, Brian C

    2008-01-01

    This book offering a modeling technique based on Lagrange's energy method includes 125 worked examples. Using this technique enables one to model and simulate systems as diverse as a six-link, closed-loop mechanism or a transistor power amplifier.

  3. Equivalent drawbead model in finite element simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carleer, Bart D.; Carleer, B.D.; Meinders, Vincent T.; Huetink, Han; Lee, J.K.; Kinzel, G.L.; Wagoner, R.

    1996-01-01

    In 3D simulations of the deep drawing process the drawbead geometries are seldom included. Therefore equivalent drawbeads are used. In order to investigate the drawbead behaviour a 2D plane strain finite element model was used. For verification of this model experiments were performed. The analyses

  4. A simulation model for football championships

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koning, RH; Koolhaas, M; Renes, G; Ridder, G

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we discuss a simulation/probability model that identifies the team that is most likely to win a tournament. The model can also be used to answer other questions like 'which team bad a lucky draw?' or 'what is the probability that two teams meet at some moment in the tournament?' Input

  5. A simulation model for football championships

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koning, Ruud H.; Koolhaas, Michael; Renes, Gusta

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we discuss a simulation/probability model that identifies the team that is most likely to win a tournament. The model can also be used to answer other questions like ‘which team had a lucky draw?’ or ‘what is the probability that two teams meet at some moment in the tournament?’. Input

  6. Regularization modeling for large-eddy simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geurts, Bernardus J.; Holm, D.D.

    2003-01-01

    A new modeling approach for large-eddy simulation (LES) is obtained by combining a "regularization principle" with an explicit filter and its inversion. This regularization approach allows a systematic derivation of the implied subgrid model, which resolves the closure problem. The central role of

  7. Validity of microgravity simulation models on earth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Regnard, J; Heer, M; Drummer, C

    2001-01-01

    Many studies have used water immersion and head-down bed rest as experimental models to simulate responses to microgravity. However, some data collected during space missions are at variance or in contrast with observations collected from experimental models. These discrepancies could reflect inc...

  8. A linear programming model to optimize diets in environmental policy scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moraes, L E; Wilen, J E; Robinson, P H; Fadel, J G

    2012-03-01

    The objective was to develop a linear programming model to formulate diets for dairy cattle when environmental policies are present and to examine effects of these policies on diet formulation and dairy cattle nitrogen and mineral excretions as well as methane emissions. The model was developed as a minimum cost diet model. Two types of environmental policies were examined: a tax and a constraint on methane emissions. A tax was incorporated to simulate a greenhouse gas emissions tax policy, and prices of carbon credits in the current carbon markets were attributed to the methane production variable. Three independent runs were made, using carbon dioxide equivalent prices of $5, $17, and $250/t. A constraint was incorporated into the model to simulate the second type of environmental policy, reducing methane emissions by predetermined amounts. The linear programming formulation of this second alternative enabled the calculation of marginal costs of reducing methane emissions. Methane emission and manure production by dairy cows were calculated according to published equations, and nitrogen and mineral excretions were calculated by mass conservation laws. Results were compared with respect to the values generated by a base least-cost model. Current prices of the carbon credit market did not appear onerous enough to have a substantive incentive effect in reducing methane emissions and altering diet costs of our hypothetical dairy herd. However, when emissions of methane were assumed to be reduced by 5, 10, and 13.5% from the base model, total diet costs increased by 5, 19.1, and 48.5%, respectively. Either these increased costs would be passed onto the consumer or dairy producers would go out of business. Nitrogen and potassium excretions were increased by 16.5 and 16.7% with a 13.5% reduction in methane emissions from the base model. Imposing methane restrictions would further increase the demand for grains and other human-edible crops, which is not a progressive

  9. Landscape Modelling and Simulation Using Spatial Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amjed Naser Mohsin AL-Hameedawi

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a procedure was performed for engendering spatial model of landscape acclimated to reality simulation. This procedure based on combining spatial data and field measurements with computer graphics reproduced using Blender software. Thereafter that we are possible to form a 3D simulation based on VIS ALL packages. The objective was to make a model utilising GIS, including inputs to the feature attribute data. The objective of these efforts concentrated on coordinating a tolerable spatial prototype, circumscribing facilitation scheme and outlining the intended framework. Thus; the eventual result was utilized in simulation form. The performed procedure contains not only data gathering, fieldwork and paradigm providing, but extended to supply a new method necessary to provide the respective 3D simulation mapping production, which authorises the decision makers as well as investors to achieve permanent acceptance an independent navigation system for Geoscience applications.

  10. Policy harmonized approach for the EU agricultural sector modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. SALPUTRA

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Policy harmonized (PH approach allows for the quantitative assessment of the impact of various elements of EU CAP direct support schemes, where the production effects of direct payments are accounted through reaction prices formed by producer price and policy price add-ons. Using the AGMEMOD model the impacts of two possible EU agricultural policy scenarios upon beef production have been analysed – full decoupling with a switch from historical to regional Single Payment scheme or alternatively with re-distribution of country direct payment envelopes via introduction of EU-wide flat area payment. The PH approach, by systematizing and harmonizing the management and use of policy data, ensures that projected differential policy impacts arising from changes in common EU policies reflect the likely actual differential impact as opposed to differences in how “common” policies are implemented within analytical models. In the second section of the paper the AGMEMOD model’s structure is explained. The policy harmonized evaluation method is presented in the third section. Results from an application of the PH approach are presented and discussed in the paper’s penultimate section, while section 5 concludes.;

  11. Benchmark simulation models, quo vadis?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeppsson, U.; Alex, J; Batstone, D. J.

    2013-01-01

    As the work of the IWA Task Group on Benchmarking of Control Strategies for wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) is coming to an end, it is essential to disseminate the knowledge gained. For this reason, all authors of the IWA Scientific and Technical Report on benchmarking have come together...... to provide their insights, highlighting areas where knowledge may still be deficient and where new opportunities are emerging, and to propose potential avenues for future development and application of the general benchmarking framework and its associated tools. The paper focuses on the topics of temporal...... and spatial extension, process modifications within the WWTP, the realism of models, control strategy extensions and the potential for new evaluation tools within the existing benchmark system. We find that there are major opportunities for application within all of these areas, either from existing work...

  12. A queuing model for road traffic simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guerrouahane, N.; Aissani, D.; Bouallouche-Medjkoune, L.; Farhi, N.

    2015-01-01

    We present in this article a stochastic queuing model for the raod traffic. The model is based on the M/G/c/c state dependent queuing model, and is inspired from the deterministic Godunov scheme for the road traffic simulation. We first propose a variant of M/G/c/c state dependent model that works with density-flow fundamental diagrams rather than density-speed relationships. We then extend this model in order to consider upstream traffic demand as well as downstream traffic supply. Finally, we show how to model a whole raod by concatenating raod sections as in the deterministic Godunov scheme

  13. Quantitative interface models for simulating microstructure evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, J.Z.; Wang, T.; Zhou, S.H.; Liu, Z.K.; Chen, L.Q.

    2004-01-01

    To quantitatively simulate microstructural evolution in real systems, we investigated three different interface models: a sharp-interface model implemented by the software DICTRA and two diffuse-interface models which use either physical order parameters or artificial order parameters. A particular example is considered, the diffusion-controlled growth of a γ ' precipitate in a supersaturated γ matrix in Ni-Al binary alloys. All three models use the thermodynamic and kinetic parameters from the same databases. The temporal evolution profiles of composition from different models are shown to agree with each other. The focus is on examining the advantages and disadvantages of each model as applied to microstructure evolution in alloys

  14. A simultaneous equations model of fiscal policy interactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Allers, Maarten A.; Elhorst, J. Paul

    Existing studies of fiscal policy interactions are based on single equation (SE) models of either taxation or expenditures, without specifying the underlying social welfare function, without taking account of budget constraints and without allowing for cost differences between jurisdictions. Taking

  15. Testing simulation and structural models with applications to energy demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Hendrik

    2007-12-01

    This dissertation deals with energy demand and consists of two parts. Part one proposes a unified econometric framework for modeling energy demand and examples illustrate the benefits of the technique by estimating the elasticity of substitution between energy and capital. Part two assesses the energy conservation policy of Daylight Saving Time and empirically tests the performance of electricity simulation. In particular, the chapter "Imposing Monotonicity and Curvature on Flexible Functional Forms" proposes an estimator for inference using structural models derived from economic theory. This is motivated by the fact that in many areas of economic analysis theory restricts the shape as well as other characteristics of functions used to represent economic constructs. Specific contributions are (a) to increase the computational speed and tractability of imposing regularity conditions, (b) to provide regularity preserving point estimates, (c) to avoid biases existent in previous applications, and (d) to illustrate the benefits of our approach via numerical simulation results. The chapter "Can We Close the Gap between the Empirical Model and Economic Theory" discusses the more fundamental question of whether the imposition of a particular theory to a dataset is justified. I propose a hypothesis test to examine whether the estimated empirical model is consistent with the assumed economic theory. Although the proposed methodology could be applied to a wide set of economic models, this is particularly relevant for estimating policy parameters that affect energy markets. This is demonstrated by estimating the Slutsky matrix and the elasticity of substitution between energy and capital, which are crucial parameters used in computable general equilibrium models analyzing energy demand and the impacts of environmental regulations. Using the Berndt and Wood dataset, I find that capital and energy are complements and that the data are significantly consistent with duality

  16. Modelling Land Use and Transport Policies to Measure Their Contribution to Urban Challenges: The Case of Madrid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Alonso

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Urban areas play a key role in the development of European territories, and it is essential for them to be sustainable and efficient. However, the European cities are facing some challenges related to certain trends that are threatening their sustainable development and operational efficiency. In this paper, we compare the contribution of three policy measures—cordon toll accompanied by public transport improvements, teleworking and re-densification—to address different city challenges. The policy assessment requires a long term simulation tool, i.e., the MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator model, which is able to consider interactions between land use and transport systems. The simulations of the different policy scenarios were carried out for the case of Madrid in the period 2012–2031. The contribution of the policy measures to address the city challenges was measured through different indicators. The results indicated that the three policy measures contributed to the time efficiency challenge, by saving time for the commute, reducing congestion and improving the traffic flows at peak hours. The most effective policy in this regard is the teleworking measure. Another challenge addressed by the three policies was the accessibility to PT. The three policy scenarios, when simulated, showed higher PT use, especially the cordon toll scenario. However, the only policy that really contributed to the energy, emissions and pollution city challenges was the re-densification measure, which reduced travel distances and encouraged a mobility that relies more on PT and slow modes.

  17. Impact of Minimum Driveway Spacing Policies on Safety Performance: An Integrated Traffic Micro-Simulation and Automated Conflict Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chu C. Minh

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available A key strategy for successful access management is the adoption of driveway spacing guidelines that consider both safety and operations. The goal is to provide sufficient distance from one driveway to the next so that drivers can perceive and react to the conditions at each potential conflict point in succession. State DOTs across the country have adopted different driveway spacing standards that vary according to the access class and characteristics of the adjacent roadway, such as type of roadway, posted speed limit, and traffic volume. Utilizing the VISSIM microscopic traffic simulation tool and FHWA's Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM, this research examined safety implications of four different driveway spacing policies representing 13 states. The analysis involved calibrating the VISSIM model for an arterial roadway corridor in West Columbia, SC, and then using the calibrated model to simulate various operational changes to the corridor, including speed limits, traffic volumes, and the associated minimum driveway spacing criteria for the four different policies. SSAM was used to analyze vehicle trajectories derived from VISSIM to determine the number of conflict points. Experimental results indicate that posted speed limit and traffic volume are the primary impact factors for driveway safety, and thus, these parameters should be considered in establishing minimum driveway spacing. Findings from this study indicate that there are significant differences in safety impacts between the different driveway spacing policies adopted by various state DOTs.

  18. The knowledge-based economy modeled, measured, simulated

    CERN Document Server

    Leydesdorff, Loet

    2006-01-01

    "Challenging, theoretically rich yet anchored in detailed empirical analysis, Loet Leydesdorff's exploration of the dynamics of the knowledge-economy is a major contribution to the field. Drawing on his expertise in science and technology studies, systems theory, and his internationally respected work on the 'triple helix', the book provides a radically new modelling and simulation of knowledge systems, capturing the articulation of structure, communication, and agency therein. This work will be of immense interest to both theorists of the knowledge-economy and practitioners in science policy." Andrew Webster Science & Technology Studies, University of York, UK

  19. Analyzing Strategic Business Rules through Simulation Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orta, Elena; Ruiz, Mercedes; Toro, Miguel

    Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) holds promise for business agility since it allows business process to change to meet new customer demands or market needs without causing a cascade effect of changes in the underlying IT systems. Business rules are the instrument chosen to help business and IT to collaborate. In this paper, we propose the utilization of simulation models to model and simulate strategic business rules that are then disaggregated at different levels of an SOA architecture. Our proposal is aimed to help find a good configuration for strategic business objectives and IT parameters. The paper includes a case study where a simulation model is built to help business decision-making in a context where finding a good configuration for different business parameters and performance is too complex to analyze by trial and error.

  20. Scoring Models of Bank Credit Policy Management

    OpenAIRE

    Aida Hanic; Emina Zunic; Adnan Dzelihodzic

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to present how credit scoring models can be used in financial institutions, in this case in banks, in order to simplify credit lending. Unlike traditional models of credit analysis, scoring models provides valuation based on numerical score who represent clients’ possibility to fulfil their obligation. Using credit scoring models, bank can create a numerical snapshot of consumers risk profile. One of the most important characteristic of scoring models is objectivity w...

  1. Global climate change policies. An analysis of CDM policies with an adapted GTAP model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Shunli

    2004-01-01

    In the context of the relationships between spatial-economic interaction and global warming just discussed, this study aims to analyze the Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) policies from an economic point of view. The research question of this study is formulated as follows: What will be the impacts of clirnate change policies, in particular CDM policies, on the economic performance of (groups of) countries in our global economic system, taking spatial interaction and general equilibrium effects into account? The purpose of addressing the issue of economic performance for (groups of) countries in the economic system is not just to identify winners and losers from international treaties. Rather, winning or losing may even determine the implementation and willingness of individual countries to participate in international environmental treaties, as illustrated by the recent withdrawal of the US from the Kyoto Protocol. By analyzing the economic impacts of an international environmental treaty for individual (groups of) countries, the framework that will be used to analyze this research question may be useful to determine the attractiveness of some global environmental policies, both for the world as a whole and for individual (groups of) countries. The research question will be answered by dividing it into six subquestions: (1) What is the position of CDM policies in the broad context of climate policy regimes?; (2) How should the relationship between human behavior and the physical environment be ideally modeled from an economic perspective? (3) How should the spatial dimension be incorporated in this framework of interaction between the economic and ecological system?; (4) How can climate change issues be incorporated in general equilibrium models in general, and in GTAP-E (extension of the Global Trade Analysis Project) in particular?; (5) How can CDM policies be implemented in the GTAP-E model?; and (6) What are the impacts of these climate change policies on

  2. Nuclear reactor core modelling in multifunctional simulators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puska, E.K. [VTT Energy, Nuclear Energy, Espoo (Finland)

    1999-06-01

    The thesis concentrates on the development of nuclear reactor core models for the APROS multifunctional simulation environment and the use of the core models in various kinds of applications. The work was started in 1986 as a part of the development of the entire APROS simulation system. The aim was to create core models that would serve in a reliable manner in an interactive, modular and multifunctional simulator/plant analyser environment. One-dimensional and three-dimensional core neutronics models have been developed. Both models have two energy groups and six delayed neutron groups. The three-dimensional finite difference type core model is able to describe both BWR- and PWR-type cores with quadratic fuel assemblies and VVER-type cores with hexagonal fuel assemblies. The one- and three-dimensional core neutronics models can be connected with the homogeneous, the five-equation or the six-equation thermal hydraulic models of APROS. The key feature of APROS is that the same physical models can be used in various applications. The nuclear reactor core models of APROS have been built in such a manner that the same models can be used in simulator and plant analyser applications, as well as in safety analysis. In the APROS environment the user can select the number of flow channels in the three-dimensional reactor core and either the homogeneous, the five- or the six-equation thermal hydraulic model for these channels. The thermal hydraulic model and the number of flow channels have a decisive effect on the calculation time of the three-dimensional core model and thus, at present, these particular selections make the major difference between a safety analysis core model and a training simulator core model. The emphasis on this thesis is on the three-dimensional core model and its capability to analyse symmetric and asymmetric events in the core. The factors affecting the calculation times of various three-dimensional BWR, PWR and WWER-type APROS core models have been

  3. The French nuclear policy. A model for security policy in North-East Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choe, K.

    1998-01-01

    Between the end of the second world war and the collapse of the Berlin wall, the French diplomacy was based on the nuclear policy in a solid and coherent way. This nuclear policy was an 'incarnation' of the national security conception, allowing France to recover its political, military and economical rank on the international scene. The most important characteristic of the French nuclear policy concerns the commercialization of the nuclear energy which aims to ensuring the national security through the building up of a financial, technological and political 'reserve'. In front of the domination of the USA and USSR during the cold war era, NE Asia had a similar geostrategic configuration as Western Europe. It concerns in particular the massive application of nuclear energy for both military and industrial purposes. The bases of the security policy in this region refers to the real use of the nuclear weapon by the USA against Japan in 1945. The French nuclear policy may be considered as a model for the building of the security policy of NE Asia, in particular through the commercialization of the nuclear technology between the countries in concern. This nuclear approach would allow the countries of these region to change their present day national defense policy into an economical and military cooperation. (J.S.)

  4. Policy planning under uncertainty: efficient starting populations for simulation-optimization methods applied to municipal solid waste management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Gordon H; Linton, Jonathan D; Yeomans, Julian Scott; Yoogalingam, Reena

    2005-10-01

    Evolutionary simulation-optimization (ESO) techniques can be adapted to model a wide variety of problem types in which system components are stochastic. Grey programming (GP) methods have been previously applied to numerous environmental planning problems containing uncertain information. In this paper, ESO is combined with GP for policy planning to create a hybrid solution approach named GESO. It can be shown that multiple policy alternatives meeting required system criteria, or modelling-to-generate-alternatives (MGA), can be quickly and efficiently created by applying GESO to this case data. The efficacy of GESO is illustrated using a municipal solid waste management case taken from the regional municipality of Hamilton-Wentworth in the Province of Ontario, Canada. The MGA capability of GESO is especially meaningful for large-scale real-world planning problems and the practicality of this procedure can easily be extended from MSW systems to many other planning applications containing significant sources of uncertainty.

  5. Kanban simulation model for production process optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Golchev Riste

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A long time has passed since the KANBAN system has been established as an efficient method for coping with the excessive inventory. Still, the possibilities for its improvement through its integration with other different approaches should be investigated further. The basic research challenge of this paper is to present benefits of KANBAN implementation supported with Discrete Event Simulation (DES. In that direction, at the beginning, the basics of KANBAN system are presented with emphasis on the information and material flow, together with a methodology for implementation of KANBAN system. Certain analysis on combining the simulation with this methodology is presented. The paper is concluded with a practical example which shows that through understanding the philosophy of the implementation methodology of KANBAN system and the simulation methodology, a simulation model can be created which can serve as a basis for a variety of experiments that can be conducted within a short period of time, resulting with production process optimization.

  6. Vermont Yankee simulator BOP model upgrade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alejandro, R.; Udbinac, M.J.

    2006-01-01

    The Vermont Yankee simulator has undergone significant changes in the 20 years since the original order was placed. After the move from the original Unix to MS Windows environment, and upgrade to the latest version of SimPort, now called MASTER, the platform was set for an overhaul and replacement of major plant system models. Over a period of a few months, the VY simulator team, in partnership with WSC engineers, replaced outdated legacy models of the main steam, condenser, condensate, circulating water, feedwater and feedwater heaters, and main turbine and auxiliaries. The timing was ideal, as the plant was undergoing a power up-rate, so the opportunity was taken to replace the legacy models with industry-leading, true on-line object oriented graphical models. Due to the efficiency of design and ease of use of the MASTER tools, VY staff performed the majority of the modeling work themselves with great success, with only occasional assistance from WSC, in a relatively short time-period, despite having to maintain all of their 'regular' simulator maintenance responsibilities. This paper will provide a more detailed view of the VY simulator, including how it is used and how it has benefited from the enhancements and upgrades implemented during the project. (author)

  7. Developing policy analytics for public health strategy and decisions-the Sheffield alcohol policy model framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennan, Alan; Meier, Petra; Purshouse, Robin; Rafia, Rachid; Meng, Yang; Hill-Macmanus, Daniel

    This paper sets out the development of a methodological framework for detailed evaluation of public health strategies for alcohol harm reduction to meet UK policy-makers needs. Alcohol is known to cause substantial harms, and controlling its affordability and availability are effective policy options. Analysis and synthesis of a variety of public and commercial data sources is needed to evaluate impact on consumers, health services, crime, employers and industry, so a sound evaluation of impact is important. We discuss the iterative process to engage with stakeholders, identify evidence/data and develop analytic approaches and produce a final model structure. We set out a series of steps in modelling impact including: classification and definition of population subgroups of interest, identification and definition of harms and outcomes for inclusion, classification of modifiable components of risk and their baseline values, specification of the baseline position on policy variables especially prices, estimating effects of changing policy variables on risk factors including price elasticities, quantifying risk functions relating risk factors to harms including 47 health conditions, crimes, absenteeism and unemployment, and monetary valuation. The most difficult model structuring decisions are described, as well as the final results framework used to provide decision support to national level policymakers in the UK. In the discussion we explore issues around the relationship between modelling and policy debates, valuation and scope, limitations of evidence/data, how the framework can be adapted to other countries and decisions. We reflect on the approach taken and outline ongoing plans for further development.

  8. The Role Of Modeling Assumptions And Policy Instruments in Evaluating The Global Implications Of U.S. Biofuel Policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oladosu, Gbadebo A [ORNL; Kline, Keith L [ORNL

    2010-01-01

    The primary objective of current U.S. biofuel law the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) is to reduce dependence on imported oil, but the law also requires biofuels to meet carbon emission reduction thresholds relative to petroleum fuels. EISA created a renewable fuel standard with annual targets for U.S. biofuel use that climb gradually from 9 billion gallons per year in 2008 to 36 billion gallons (or about 136 billion liters) of biofuels per year by 2022. The most controversial aspects of the biofuel policy have centered on the global social and environmental implications of its potential land use effects. In particular, there is an ongoing debate about whether indirect land use change (ILUC) make biofuels a net source, rather sink, of carbon emissions. However, estimates of ILUC induced by biofuel production and use can only be inferred through modeling. This paper evaluates how model structure, underlying assumptions, and the representation of policy instruments influence the results of U.S. biofuel policy simulations. The analysis shows that differences in these factors can lead to divergent model estimates of land use and economic effects. Estimates of the net conversion of forests and grasslands induced by U.S. biofuel policy range from 0.09 ha/1000 gallons described in this paper to 0.73 ha/1000 gallons from early studies in the ILUC change debate. We note that several important factors governing LUC change remain to be examined. Challenges that must be addressed to improve global land use change modeling are highlighted.

  9. Simulating school closure policies for cost effective pandemic decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Araz Ozgur M

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Around the globe, school closures were used sporadically to mitigate the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. However, such closures can detrimentally impact economic and social life. Methods Here, we couple a decision analytic approach with a mathematical model of influenza transmission to estimate the impact of school closures in terms of epidemiological and cost effectiveness. Our method assumes that the transmissibility and the severity of the disease are uncertain, and evaluates several closure and reopening strategies that cover a range of thresholds in school-aged prevalence (SAP and closure durations. Results Assuming a willingness to pay per quality adjusted life-year (QALY threshold equal to the US per capita GDP ($46,000, we found that the cost effectiveness of these strategies is highly dependent on the severity and on a willingness to pay per QALY. For severe pandemics, the preferred strategy couples the earliest closure trigger (0.5% SAP with the longest duration closure (24 weeks considered. For milder pandemics, the preferred strategies also involve the earliest closure trigger, but are shorter duration (12 weeks for low transmission rates and variable length for high transmission rates. Conclusions These findings highlight the importance of obtaining early estimates of pandemic severity and provide guidance to public health decision-makers for effectively tailoring school closures strategies in response to a newly emergent influenza pandemic.

  10. Simulating school closure policies for cost effective pandemic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araz, Ozgur M; Damien, Paul; Paltiel, David A; Burke, Sean; van de Geijn, Bryce; Galvani, Alison; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

    2012-06-18

    Around the globe, school closures were used sporadically to mitigate the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. However, such closures can detrimentally impact economic and social life. Here, we couple a decision analytic approach with a mathematical model of influenza transmission to estimate the impact of school closures in terms of epidemiological and cost effectiveness. Our method assumes that the transmissibility and the severity of the disease are uncertain, and evaluates several closure and reopening strategies that cover a range of thresholds in school-aged prevalence (SAP) and closure durations. Assuming a willingness to pay per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) threshold equal to the US per capita GDP ($46,000), we found that the cost effectiveness of these strategies is highly dependent on the severity and on a willingness to pay per QALY. For severe pandemics, the preferred strategy couples the earliest closure trigger (0.5% SAP) with the longest duration closure (24 weeks) considered. For milder pandemics, the preferred strategies also involve the earliest closure trigger, but are shorter duration (12 weeks for low transmission rates and variable length for high transmission rates). These findings highlight the importance of obtaining early estimates of pandemic severity and provide guidance to public health decision-makers for effectively tailoring school closures strategies in response to a newly emergent influenza pandemic.

  11. Applications of system dynamics modelling to support health policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Jo-An M; Wells, Robert; Page, Andrew; Dominello, Amanda; Haines, Mary; Wilson, Andrew

    2015-07-09

    The value of systems science modelling methods in the health sector is increasingly being recognised. Of particular promise is the potential of these methods to improve operational aspects of healthcare capacity and delivery, analyse policy options for health system reform and guide investments to address complex public health problems. Because it lends itself to a participatory approach, system dynamics modelling has been a particularly appealing method that aims to align stakeholder understanding of the underlying causes of a problem and achieve consensus for action. The aim of this review is to determine the effectiveness of system dynamics modelling for health policy, and explore the range and nature of its application. A systematic search was conducted to identify articles published up to April 2015 from the PubMed, Web of Knowledge, Embase, ScienceDirect and Google Scholar databases. The grey literature was also searched. Papers eligible for inclusion were those that described applications of system dynamics modelling to support health policy at any level of government. Six papers were identified, comprising eight case studies of the application of system dynamics modelling to support health policy. No analytic studies were found that examined the effectiveness of this type of modelling. Only three examples engaged multidisciplinary stakeholders in collective model building. Stakeholder participation in model building reportedly facilitated development of a common 'mental map' of the health problem, resulting in consensus about optimal policy strategy and garnering support for collaborative action. The paucity of relevant papers indicates that, although the volume of descriptive literature advocating the value of system dynamics modelling is considerable, its practical application to inform health policy making is yet to be routinely applied and rigorously evaluated. Advances in software are allowing the participatory model building approach to be extended to

  12. TRANSFORM - TRANsient Simulation Framework of Reconfigurable Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-09-01

    Existing development tools for early stage design and scoping of energy systems are often time consuming to use, proprietary, and do not contain the necessary function to model complete systems (i.e., controls, primary, and secondary systems) in a common platform. The Modelica programming language based TRANSFORM tool (1) provides a standardized, common simulation environment for early design of energy systems (i.e., power plants), (2) provides a library of baseline component modules to be assembled into full plant models using available geometry, design, and thermal-hydraulic data, (3) defines modeling conventions for interconnecting component models, and (4) establishes user interfaces and support tools to facilitate simulation development (i.e., configuration and parameterization), execution, and results display and capture.

  13. Effect of the one-child policy on influenza transmission in China: a stochastic transmission model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fengchen Liu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: China's one-child-per-couple policy, introduced in 1979, led to profound demographic changes for nearly a quarter of the world's population. Several decades later, the consequences include decreased fertility rates, population aging, decreased household sizes, changes in family structure, and imbalanced sex ratios. The epidemiology of communicable diseases may have been affected by these changes since the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases depend on demographic characteristics of the population. Of particular interest is influenza because China and Southeast Asia lie at the center of a global transmission network of influenza. Moreover, changes in household structure may affect influenza transmission. Is it possible that the pronounced demographic changes that have occurred in China have affected influenza transmission? METHODS AND FINDINGS: To address this question, we developed a continuous-time, stochastic, individual-based simulation model for influenza transmission. With this model, we simulated 30 years of influenza transmission and compared influenza transmission rates in populations with and without the one-child policy control. We found that the average annual attack rate is reduced by 6.08% (SD 2.21% in the presence of the one-child policy compared to a population in which no demographic changes occurred. There was no discernible difference in the secondary attack rate, -0.15% (SD 1.85%, between the populations with and without a one-child policy. We also forecasted influenza transmission over a ten-year time period in a population with a two-child policy under a hypothesis that a two-child-per-couple policy will be carried out in 2015, and found a negligible difference in the average annual attack rate compared to the population with the one-child policy. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that the average annual attack rate is slightly lowered in a population with a one-child policy, which may have resulted from a

  14. Effect of the one-child policy on influenza transmission in China: a stochastic transmission model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fengchen; Enanoria, Wayne T A; Ray, Kathryn J; Coffee, Megan P; Gordon, Aubree; Aragón, Tomás J; Yu, Guowei; Cowling, Benjamin J; Porco, Travis C

    2014-01-01

    China's one-child-per-couple policy, introduced in 1979, led to profound demographic changes for nearly a quarter of the world's population. Several decades later, the consequences include decreased fertility rates, population aging, decreased household sizes, changes in family structure, and imbalanced sex ratios. The epidemiology of communicable diseases may have been affected by these changes since the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases depend on demographic characteristics of the population. Of particular interest is influenza because China and Southeast Asia lie at the center of a global transmission network of influenza. Moreover, changes in household structure may affect influenza transmission. Is it possible that the pronounced demographic changes that have occurred in China have affected influenza transmission? To address this question, we developed a continuous-time, stochastic, individual-based simulation model for influenza transmission. With this model, we simulated 30 years of influenza transmission and compared influenza transmission rates in populations with and without the one-child policy control. We found that the average annual attack rate is reduced by 6.08% (SD 2.21%) in the presence of the one-child policy compared to a population in which no demographic changes occurred. There was no discernible difference in the secondary attack rate, -0.15% (SD 1.85%), between the populations with and without a one-child policy. We also forecasted influenza transmission over a ten-year time period in a population with a two-child policy under a hypothesis that a two-child-per-couple policy will be carried out in 2015, and found a negligible difference in the average annual attack rate compared to the population with the one-child policy. This study found that the average annual attack rate is slightly lowered in a population with a one-child policy, which may have resulted from a decrease in household size and the proportion of children in the

  15. Biological transportation networks: Modeling and simulation

    KAUST Repository

    Albi, Giacomo

    2015-09-15

    We present a model for biological network formation originally introduced by Cai and Hu [Adaptation and optimization of biological transport networks, Phys. Rev. Lett. 111 (2013) 138701]. The modeling of fluid transportation (e.g., leaf venation and angiogenesis) and ion transportation networks (e.g., neural networks) is explained in detail and basic analytical features like the gradient flow structure of the fluid transportation network model and the impact of the model parameters on the geometry and topology of network formation are analyzed. We also present a numerical finite-element based discretization scheme and discuss sample cases of network formation simulations.

  16. A universal simulator for ecological models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holst, Niels

    2013-01-01

    Software design is an often neglected issue in ecological models, even though bad software design often becomes a hindrance for re-using, sharing and even grasping an ecological model. In this paper, the methodology of agile software design was applied to the domain of ecological models. Thus...... the principles for a universal design of ecological models were arrived at. To exemplify this design, the open-source software Universal Simulator was constructed using C++ and XML and is provided as a resource for inspiration....

  17. Object Oriented Modelling and Dynamical Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wagner, Falko Jens; Poulsen, Mikael Zebbelin

    1998-01-01

    This report with appendix describes the work done in master project at DTU.The goal of the project was to develop a concept for simulation of dynamical systems based on object oriented methods.The result was a library of C++-classes, for use when both building componentbased models and when...

  18. preliminary multidomain modelling and simulation study

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    PRELIMINARY MULTIDOMAIN MODELLING AND SIMULATION STUDY OF A. HORIZONTAL AXIS WIND TURBINE (HAWT) TOWER VIBRATION. I. lliyasu1, I. Iliyasu2, I. K. Tanimu3 and D. O Obada4. 1,4 DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIA, KADUNA STATE. NIGERIA.

  19. Reproducibility in Computational Neuroscience Models and Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDougal, Robert A.; Bulanova, Anna S.; Lytton, William W.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Like all scientific research, computational neuroscience research must be reproducible. Big data science, including simulation research, cannot depend exclusively on journal articles as the method to provide the sharing and transparency required for reproducibility. Methods Ensuring model reproducibility requires the use of multiple standard software practices and tools, including version control, strong commenting and documentation, and code modularity. Results Building on these standard practices, model sharing sites and tools have been developed that fit into several categories: 1. standardized neural simulators, 2. shared computational resources, 3. declarative model descriptors, ontologies and standardized annotations; 4. model sharing repositories and sharing standards. Conclusion A number of complementary innovations have been proposed to enhance sharing, transparency and reproducibility. The individual user can be encouraged to make use of version control, commenting, documentation and modularity in development of models. The community can help by requiring model sharing as a condition of publication and funding. Significance Model management will become increasingly important as multiscale models become larger, more detailed and correspondingly more difficult to manage by any single investigator or single laboratory. Additional big data management complexity will come as the models become more useful in interpreting experiments, thus increasing the need to ensure clear alignment between modeling data, both parameters and results, and experiment. PMID:27046845

  20. Thermohydraulic modeling and simulation of breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agrawal, A.K.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Curtis, R.T.; Hetrick, D.L.; Girijashankar, P.V.

    1982-01-01

    This paper deals with the modeling and simulation of system-wide transients in LMFBRs. Unprotected events (i.e., the presumption of failure of the plant protection system) leading to core-melt are not considered in this paper. The existing computational capabilities in the area of protected transients in the US are noted. Various physical and numerical approximations that are made in these codes are discussed. Finally, the future direction in the area of model verification and improvements is discussed

  1. Tobacco Town: Computational Modeling of Policy Options to Reduce Tobacco Retailer Density.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luke, Douglas A; Hammond, Ross A; Combs, Todd; Sorg, Amy; Kasman, Matt; Mack-Crane, Austen; Ribisl, Kurt M; Henriksen, Lisa

    2017-05-01

    To identify the behavioral mechanisms and effects of tobacco control policies designed to reduce tobacco retailer density. We developed the Tobacco Town agent-based simulation model to examine 4 types of retailer reduction policies: (1) random retailer reduction, (2) restriction by type of retailer, (3) limiting proximity of retailers to schools, and (4) limiting proximity of retailers to each other. The model examined the effects of these policies alone and in combination across 4 different types of towns, defined by 2 levels of population density (urban vs suburban) and 2 levels of income (higher vs lower). Model results indicated that reduction of retailer density has the potential to decrease accessibility of tobacco products by driving up search and purchase costs. Policy effects varied by town type: proximity policies worked better in dense, urban towns whereas retailer type and random retailer reduction worked better in less-dense, suburban settings. Comprehensive retailer density reduction policies have excellent potential to reduce the public health burden of tobacco use in communities.

  2. Combining agent-based modeling and life cycle assessment for the evaluation of mobility policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florent, Querini; Enrico, Benetto

    2015-02-03

    This article presents agent-based modeling (ABM) as a novel approach for consequential life cycle assessment (C-LCA) of large scale policies, more specifically mobility-related policies. The approach is validated at the Luxembourgish level (as a first case study). The agent-based model simulates the car market (sales, use, and dismantling) of the population of users in the period 2013-2020, following the implementation of different mobility policies and available electric vehicles. The resulting changes in the car fleet composition as well as the hourly uses of the vehicles are then used to derive consistent LCA results, representing the consequences of the policies. Policies will have significant environmental consequences: when using ReCiPe2008, we observe a decrease of global warming, fossil depletion, acidification, ozone depletion, and photochemical ozone formation and an increase of metal depletion, ionizing radiations, marine eutrophication, and particulate matter formation. The study clearly shows that the extrapolation of LCA results for the circulating fleet at national scale following the introduction of the policies from the LCAs of single vehicles by simple up-scaling (using hypothetical deployment scenarios) would be flawed. The inventory has to be directly conducted at full scale and to this aim, ABM is indeed a promising approach, as it allows identifying and quantifying emerging effects while modeling the Life Cycle Inventory of vehicles at microscale through the concept of agents.

  3. STAPOL: A Simulation of the Impact of Policy, Values, and Technological and Societal Developments upon the Quality of Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, Dennis; Feller, Richard

    The Institute for the Future has been conducting research in technological and societal forecasting, social indicators, value change, and simulation gaming. This paper describes an effort to bring together parts of that research into a simulation game ("State Policy," or STAPOL) for analysis of the impact of government policy, social values, and…

  4. Twitter's tweet method modelling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarlis, Apostolos S.; Sakas, Damianos P.; Vlachos, D. S.

    2015-02-01

    This paper seeks to purpose the concept of Twitter marketing methods. The tools that Twitter provides are modelled and simulated using iThink in the context of a Twitter media-marketing agency. The paper has leveraged the system's dynamic paradigm to conduct Facebook marketing tools and methods modelling, using iThink™ system to implement them. It uses the design science research methodology for the proof of concept of the models and modelling processes. The following models have been developed for a twitter marketing agent/company and tested in real circumstances and with real numbers. These models were finalized through a number of revisions and iterators of the design, develop, simulate, test and evaluate. It also addresses these methods that suit most organized promotion through targeting, to the Twitter social media service. The validity and usefulness of these Twitter marketing methods models for the day-to-day decision making are authenticated by the management of the company organization. It implements system dynamics concepts of Twitter marketing methods modelling and produce models of various Twitter marketing situations. The Tweet method that Twitter provides can be adjusted, depending on the situation, in order to maximize the profit of the company/agent.

  5. Evaluating business models for microgrids: Interactions of technology and policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanna, Ryan; Ghonima, Mohamed; Kleissl, Jan; Tynan, George; Victor, David G.

    2017-01-01

    Policy makers are increasingly focused on strategies to decentralize the electricity grid. We analyze the business model for one mode of decentralization—microgrids—and quantify the economics for self-supply of electricity and thermal energy and explicitly resolve technological as well as policy variables. We offer a tool, based on the Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model (DER-CAM) modeling framework, that determines the cost-minimal capacity and operation of distributed energy resources in a microgrid, and apply it in southern California to three “iconic” microgrid types which represent typical commercial adopters: a large commercial building, critical infrastructure, and campus. We find that optimal investment leads to some deployment of renewables but that natural gas technologies underpin the most robust business cases—due in part to relatively cheap gas and high electricity rates. This finding contrasts sharply with most policy advocacy, which has focused on the potentials for decentralization of the grid to encourage deployment of renewables. Decentralization could radically reduce customer energy costs, but without the right policy framework it could create large numbers of small decentralized sources of gas-based carbon emissions that will be difficult to control if policy makers want to achieve deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. - Highlights: • We offer a modeling tool to study technology and policy variables for microgrids. • We construct comprehensive load profiles for three likely adopters of microgrids. • Investment in natural gas generators is key to enabling business models. • Solar PV and storage are optimal but as supplements to gas generation. • Business models are highly robust to sensitivity in technology and policy variables.

  6. Advances in NLTE modeling for integrated simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, H. A.; Hansen, S. B.

    2010-01-01

    The last few years have seen significant progress in constructing the atomic models required for non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) simulations. Along with this has come an increased understanding of the requirements for accurately modeling the ionization balance, energy content and radiative properties of different atomic species for a wide range of densities and temperatures. Much of this progress is the result of a series of workshops dedicated to comparing the results from different codes and computational approaches applied to a series of test problems. The results of these workshops emphasized the importance of atomic model completeness, especially in doubly-excited states and autoionization transitions, to calculating ionization balance, and the importance of accurate, detailed atomic data to producing reliable spectra. We describe a simple screened-hydrogenic model that calculates NLTE ionization balance with sufficient accuracy, at a low enough computational cost for routine use in radiation-hydrodynamics codes. The model incorporates term splitting, Δ n = 0 transitions, and approximate UTA widths for spectral calculations, with results comparable to those of much more detailed codes. Simulations done with this model have been increasingly successful at matching experimental data for laser-driven systems and hohlraums. Accurate and efficient atomic models are just one requirement for integrated NLTE simulations. Coupling the atomic kinetics to hydrodynamics and radiation transport constrains both discretizations and algorithms to retain energy conservation, accuracy and stability. In particular, the strong coupling between radiation and populations can require either very short time steps or significantly modified radiation transport algorithms to account for NLTE material response. Considerations such as these continue to provide challenges for NLTE simulations.

  7. Advances in NLTE Modeling for Integrated Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, H.A.; Hansen, S.B.

    2009-01-01

    The last few years have seen significant progress in constructing the atomic models required for non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) simulations. Along with this has come an increased understanding of the requirements for accurately modeling the ionization balance, energy content and radiative properties of different elements for a wide range of densities and temperatures. Much of this progress is the result of a series of workshops dedicated to comparing the results from different codes and computational approaches applied to a series of test problems. The results of these workshops emphasized the importance of atomic model completeness, especially in doubly excited states and autoionization transitions, to calculating ionization balance, and the importance of accurate, detailed atomic data to producing reliable spectra. We describe a simple screened-hydrogenic model that calculates NLTE ionization balance with surprising accuracy, at a low enough computational cost for routine use in radiation-hydrodynamics codes. The model incorporates term splitting, Δn = 0 transitions, and approximate UTA widths for spectral calculations, with results comparable to those of much more detailed codes. Simulations done with this model have been increasingly successful at matching experimental data for laser-driven systems and hohlraums. Accurate and efficient atomic models are just one requirement for integrated NLTE simulations. Coupling the atomic kinetics to hydrodynamics and radiation transport constrains both discretizations and algorithms to retain energy conservation, accuracy and stability. In particular, the strong coupling between radiation and populations can require either very short timesteps or significantly modified radiation transport algorithms to account for NLTE material response. Considerations such as these continue to provide challenges for NLTE simulations.

  8. Do forest gap model simulations of climate change effects have a catastrophist bias?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LeBlanc, D.C. [Ball State Univ., Muncie, IN (United States). Dept. of Biology; Loehle, C. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)

    1997-08-01

    Forest gap simulation models have been widely used to project potential effects of global climate change on forest ecosystems. These projections are given high visibility in governmental and intergovernmental reports that are part of the basis for formulating national and international policy regarding global change. The most recent draft report from the IPCC is but one of many cases where the results from forest gap simulation models have been used as the best available projection of the effects of climate change on forests.

  9. SIMULATION MODELING OF IT PROJECTS BASED ON PETRI NETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Александр Михайлович ВОЗНЫЙ

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available An integrated simulation model of IT project based on a modified Petri net model that combines product and model of project tasks has been proposed. Substantive interpretation of the components of the simulation model has been presented, the process of simulation has been described. The conclusions about the integration of the product model and the model of works project were made.

  10. THEORIES AND MODELS OF FISCAL POLICY

    OpenAIRE

    Alina Georgiana SOLOMON

    2013-01-01

    Within the paper “Theories and models of fiscal policy” we made a presentation of the main fiscal theories elaborated by the renowned representatives of the Physiocratic School, of the classic English School and last, but not least, the neoclassic approach of the aforementioned in the vision of Frank Ramsey and Arthur Laffer. The purpose of the paper is to highlight which was the contribution of the fiscal theories and models formulated by scholars and to what extent they contributed to devel...

  11. Analysis of Intelligent Transportation Systems Using Model-Driven Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Fernández-Isabel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSs integrate information, sensor, control, and communication technologies to provide transport related services. Their users range from everyday commuters to policy makers and urban planners. Given the complexity of these systems and their environment, their study in real settings is frequently unfeasible. Simulations help to address this problem, but present their own issues: there can be unintended mistakes in the transition from models to code; their platforms frequently bias modeling; and it is difficult to compare works that use different models and tools. In order to overcome these problems, this paper proposes a framework for a model-driven development of these simulations. It is based on a specific modeling language that supports the integrated specification of the multiple facets of an ITS: people, their vehicles, and the external environment; and a network of sensors and actuators conveniently arranged and distributed that operates over them. The framework works with a model editor to generate specifications compliant with that language, and a code generator to produce code from them using platform specifications. There are also guidelines to help researchers in the application of this infrastructure. A case study on advanced management of traffic lights with cameras illustrates its use.

  12. THE SHEFFIELD ALCOHOL POLICY MODEL - A MATHEMATICAL DESCRIPTION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennan, Alan; Meier, Petra; Purshouse, Robin; Rafia, Rachid; Meng, Yang; Hill-Macmanus, Daniel; Angus, Colin; Holmes, John

    2014-09-30

    This methodology paper sets out a mathematical description of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 2.0, a model to evaluate public health strategies for alcohol harm reduction in the UK. Policies that can be appraised include a minimum price per unit of alcohol, restrictions on price discounting, and broader public health measures. The model estimates the impact on consumers, health services, crime, employers, retailers and government tax revenues. The synthesis of public and commercial data sources to inform the model structure is described. A detailed algebraic description of the model is provided. This involves quantifying baseline levels of alcohol purchasing and consumption by age and gender subgroups, estimating the impact of policies on consumption, for example, using evidence on price elasticities of demand for alcohol, quantification of risk functions relating alcohol consumption to harms including 47 health conditions, crimes, absenteeism and unemployment, and finally monetary valuation of the consequences. The results framework, shown for a minimum price per unit of alcohol, has been used to provide policy appraisals for the UK government policy-makers. In discussion and online appendix, we explore issues around valuation and scope, limitations of evidence/data, how the framework can be adapted to other countries and decisions, and ongoing plans for further development. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. A parallel computational model for GATE simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rannou, F R; Vega-Acevedo, N; El Bitar, Z

    2013-12-01

    GATE/Geant4 Monte Carlo simulations are computationally demanding applications, requiring thousands of processor hours to produce realistic results. The classical strategy of distributing the simulation of individual events does not apply efficiently for Positron Emission Tomography (PET) experiments, because it requires a centralized coincidence processing and large communication overheads. We propose a parallel computational model for GATE that handles event generation and coincidence processing in a simple and efficient way by decentralizing event generation and processing but maintaining a centralized event and time coordinator. The model is implemented with the inclusion of a new set of factory classes that can run the same executable in sequential or parallel mode. A Mann-Whitney test shows that the output produced by this parallel model in terms of number of tallies is equivalent (but not equal) to its sequential counterpart. Computational performance evaluation shows that the software is scalable and well balanced. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Modeling, simulation and optimization of bipedal walking

    CERN Document Server

    Berns, Karsten

    2013-01-01

    The model-based investigation of motions of anthropomorphic systems is an important interdisciplinary research topic involving specialists from many fields such as Robotics, Biomechanics, Physiology, Orthopedics, Psychology, Neurosciences, Sports, Computer Graphics and Applied Mathematics. This book presents a study of basic locomotion forms such as walking and running is of particular interest due to the high demand on dynamic coordination, actuator efficiency and balance control. Mathematical models and numerical simulation and optimization techniques are explained, in combination with experimental data, which can help to better understand the basic underlying mechanisms of these motions and to improve them. Example topics treated in this book are Modeling techniques for anthropomorphic bipedal walking systems Optimized walking motions for different objective functions Identification of objective functions from measurements Simulation and optimization approaches for humanoid robots Biologically inspired con...

  15. Multiphase reacting flows modelling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Marchisio, Daniele L

    2007-01-01

    The papers in this book describe the most widely applicable modeling approaches and are organized in six groups covering from fundamentals to relevant applications. In the first part, some fundamentals of multiphase turbulent reacting flows are covered. In particular the introduction focuses on basic notions of turbulence theory in single-phase and multi-phase systems as well as on the interaction between turbulence and chemistry. In the second part, models for the physical and chemical processes involved are discussed. Among other things, particular emphasis is given to turbulence modeling strategies for multiphase flows based on the kinetic theory for granular flows. Next, the different numerical methods based on Lagrangian and/or Eulerian schemes are presented. In particular the most popular numerical approaches of computational fluid dynamics codes are described (i.e., Direct Numerical Simulation, Large Eddy Simulation, and Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes approach). The book will cover particle-based meth...

  16. Fault diagnosis based on continuous simulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feyock, Stefan

    1987-01-01

    The results are described of an investigation of techniques for using continuous simulation models as basis for reasoning about physical systems, with emphasis on the diagnosis of system faults. It is assumed that a continuous simulation model of the properly operating system is available. Malfunctions are diagnosed by posing the question: how can we make the model behave like that. The adjustments that must be made to the model to produce the observed behavior usually provide definitive clues to the nature of the malfunction. A novel application of Dijkstra's weakest precondition predicate transformer is used to derive the preconditions for producing the required model behavior. To minimize the size of the search space, an envisionment generator based on interval mathematics was developed. In addition to its intended application, the ability to generate qualitative state spaces automatically from quantitative simulations proved to be a fruitful avenue of investigation in its own right. Implementations of the Dijkstra transform and the envisionment generator are reproduced in the Appendix.

  17. Numerical model simulation of atmospheric coolant plumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaillard, P.

    1980-01-01

    The effect of humid atmospheric coolants on the atmosphere is simulated by means of a three-dimensional numerical model. The atmosphere is defined by its natural vertical profiles of horizontal velocity, temperature, pressure and relative humidity. Effluent discharge is characterised by its vertical velocity and the temperature of air satured with water vapour. The subject of investigation is the area in the vicinity of the point of discharge, with due allowance for the wake effect of the tower and buildings and, where application, wind veer with altitude. The model equations express the conservation relationships for mometum, energy, total mass and water mass, for an incompressible fluid behaving in accordance with the Boussinesq assumptions. Condensation is represented by a simple thermodynamic model, and turbulent fluxes are simulated by introduction of turbulent viscosity and diffusivity data based on in-situ and experimental water model measurements. The three-dimensional problem expressed in terms of the primitive variables (u, v, w, p) is governed by an elliptic equation system which is solved numerically by application of an explicit time-marching algorithm in order to predict the steady-flow velocity distribution, temperature, water vapour concentration and the liquid-water concentration defining the visible plume. Windstill conditions are simulated by a program processing the elliptic equations in an axisymmetrical revolution coordinate system. The calculated visible plumes are compared with plumes observed on site with a view to validate the models [fr

  18. Mathematical modelling informs HIV prevention policy in China ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-04-27

    Apr 27, 2016 ... IDRC-funded research is using mathematical modelling to influence local and national policies in China to reduce HIV transmission. Treatment as prevention Earlier research conducted under Modelling and controlling infectious diseases project showed that providing antiretroviral therapy (ART) to ...

  19. Urban adaptation to mega-drought: Anticipatory water modeling, policy, and planning in Phoenix

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gober, P.; Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Chow, W.

    2016-12-01

    There is increasing interest in using the results of water models for long-term planning and policy analysis. Achieving this goal requires more effective integration of human dimensions into water modeling and a paradigm shift in the way models are developed and used. A user-defined focus argues in favor of models that are designed to foster public debate and engagement about the difficult trade-offs that are inevitable in managing complex water systems. These models also emphasize decision making under uncertainty and anticipatory planning, and are developed through a collaborative and iterative process. This paper demonstrates the use of anticipatory modeling for long-term drought planning in Phoenix, one of the largest and fastest growing urban areas in the southwestern USA. WaterSim 5, an anticipatory water policy and planning model, was used to explore groundwater sustainability outcomes for mega-drought conditions across a range of policies, including population growth management, water conservation, water banking, direct reuse of RO reclaimed water, and water augmentation. Results revealed that business-as-usual population growth, per capita use trends, and management strategies may not be sustainable over the long term, even without mega-drought conditions as years of available groundwater supply decline over the simulation period from 2000 to 2060. Adding mega-drought increases the decline in aquifer levels and increases the variability in flows and uncertainty about future groundwater supplies. Simulations that combine drought management policies can return the region to sustainable. Results demonstrate the value of long-term planning and policy analysis for anticipating and adapting to environmental change.

  20. A Simulation Model for Extensor Tendon Repair

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth Aronstam

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Audience: This simulation model is designed for use by emergency medicine residents. Although we have instituted this at the PGY-2 level of our residency curriculum, it is appropriate for any level of emergency medicine residency training. It might also be adapted for use for a variety of other learners, such as practicing emergency physicians, orthopedic surgery residents, or hand surgery trainees. Introduction: Tendon injuries commonly present to the emergency department, so it is essential that emergency physicians be competent in evaluating such injuries. Indeed, extensor tendon repair is included as an ACGME Emergency Medicine Milestone (Milestone 13, Wound Management, Level 5 – “Performs advanced wound repairs, such as tendon repairs…”.1 However, emergency medicine residents may have limited opportunity to develop these skills due to a lack of patients, competition from other trainees, or preexisting referral patterns. Simulation may provide an alternative means to effectively teach these skills in such settings. Previously described tendon repair simulation models that were designed for surgical trainees have used rubber worms4, licorice5, feeding tubes, catheters6,7, drinking straws8, microfoam tape9, sheep forelimbs10 and cadavers.11 These models all suffer a variety of limitations, including high cost, lack of ready availability, or lack of realism. Objectives: We sought to develop an extensor tendon repair simulation model for emergency medicine residents, designed to meet ACGME Emergency Medicine Milestone 13, Level 5. We wished this model to be simple, inexpensive, and realistic. Methods: The learner responsible content/educational handout component of our innovation teaches residents about emergency department extensor tendon repair, and includes: 1 relevant anatomy 2 indications and contraindications for emergency department extensor tendon repair 3 physical exam findings 4 tendon suture techniques and 5 aftercare. During

  1. Modelling and simulation of thermal power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eborn, J.

    1998-02-01

    Mathematical modelling and simulation are important tools when dealing with engineering systems that today are becoming increasingly more complex. Integrated production and recycling of materials are trends that give rise to heterogenous systems, which are difficult to handle within one area of expertise. Model libraries are an excellent way to package engineering knowledge of systems and units to be reused by those who are not experts in modelling. Many commercial packages provide good model libraries, but they are usually domain-specific and closed. Heterogenous, multi-domain systems requires open model libraries written in general purpose modelling languages. This thesis describes a model database for thermal power plants written in the object-oriented modelling language OMOLA. The models are based on first principles. Subunits describe volumes with pressure and enthalpy dynamics and flows of heat or different media. The subunits are used to build basic units such as pumps, valves and heat exchangers which can be used to build system models. Several applications are described; a heat recovery steam generator, equipment for juice blending, steam generation in a sulphuric acid plant and a condensing steam plate heat exchanger. Model libraries for industrial use must be validated against measured data. The thesis describes how parameter estimation methods can be used for model validation. Results from a case-study on parameter optimization of a non-linear drum boiler model show how the technique can be used 32 refs, 21 figs

  2. Strategies simulation model for the gas business chain MEGAS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez, S.M. de; Uzcategui, R.; Brea, E.; Diaz, R.

    1994-01-01

    MEGAS is a simulation model representing fundamental parameters of Corpoven's natural gas and NGL production, handling, processing, transportation and distribution systems in the Venezuelan mid-east, as well as its financial implications. Various strategies regarding development, prices, costs, new business opportunities, production scenarios, demand and energy policies can be evaluated through this model in order to determine, after analyzing the economics results, a set of strategies to follow in the mid and long term. MEGAS could be also used to make risk analysis studies, considering that probabilistic parameters and variables like gas quality, production, demand, plant shutdowns and others are to be represented by their distinctive function. It is possible to set up a probabilistic function for each economic indicator or operating variables with an appropriate experiment design. MEGAS is based on a dynamic simulation language, which facilitates both the real system components representation and the main variables statistical data accumulation. It also allows graphical representation of results and the simulation animation. Demand and price forecasts, new projects, costs and capabilities of the systems are some of the model input data. MEGAS should be considered as a tool that eases the strategic planning of the business, making it possible for the Corporation to foresee changes, both in the domestic and international market, to predict how these changes could affect its business affairs and to visualize different return scenarios

  3. Modeling and simulation of economic processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Brumar

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In general, any activity requires a longer action often characterized by a degree of uncertainty, insecurity, in terms of size of the objective pursued. Because of the complexity of real economic systems, the stochastic dependencies between different variables and parameters considered, not all systems can be adequately represented by a model that can be solved by analytical methods and covering all issues for management decision analysis-economic horizon real. Often in such cases, it is considered that the simulation technique is the only alternative available. Using simulation techniques to study real-world systems often requires a laborious work. Making a simulation experiment is a process that takes place in several stages.

  4. Simulation as a surgical teaching model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Gómez, José Luis; Martín-Parra, José Ignacio; González-Noriega, Mónica; Redondo-Figuero, Carlos Godofredo; Manuel-Palazuelos, José Carlos

    2018-01-01

    Teaching of surgery has been affected by many factors over the last years, such as the reduction of working hours, the optimization of the use of the operating room or patient safety. Traditional teaching methodology fails to reduce the impact of these factors on surgeońs training. Simulation as a teaching model minimizes such impact, and is more effective than traditional teaching methods for integrating knowledge and clinical-surgical skills. Simulation complements clinical assistance with training, creating a safe learning environment where patient safety is not affected, and ethical or legal conflicts are avoided. Simulation uses learning methodologies that allow teaching individualization, adapting it to the learning needs of each student. It also allows training of all kinds of technical, cognitive or behavioural skills. Copyright © 2017 AEC. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  5. Mathematical models and numerical simulation in electromagnetism

    CERN Document Server

    Bermúdez, Alfredo; Salgado, Pilar

    2014-01-01

    The book represents a basic support for a master course in electromagnetism oriented to numerical simulation. The main goal of the book is that the reader knows the boundary-value problems of partial differential equations that should be solved in order to perform computer simulation of electromagnetic processes. Moreover it includes a part devoted to electric circuit theory  based on ordinary differential equations. The book is mainly oriented to electric engineering applications, going from the general to the specific, namely, from the full Maxwell’s equations to the particular cases of electrostatics, direct current, magnetostatics and eddy currents models. Apart from standard exercises related to analytical calculus, the book includes some others oriented to real-life applications solved with MaxFEM free simulation software.

  6. Data driven mathematical models for policy making

    OpenAIRE

    Nannyonga, Betty

    2011-01-01

    This thesis consists of two papers. 1. Betty Nannyonga, D.J.T. Sumpter, J.Y.T. Mugisha and L.S. Luboobi: The Dynamics,causes and possible prevention of Hepaititis E outbreaks. 2. Betty Nannyonga, D.J.T. Sumpter, andStam Nicolis: A dynamical systems approach tosocial and economic development. The first paper deals with a deterministic approach of modelling a Hepatitis E outbreak whenmalaria is endemic in a population. We design three models based on the epidemiology ofHepatitis E, malaria, and...

  7. Freshwater Ecosystem Services in Mining Regions: Modelling Options for Policy Development Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Mercado-Garcia

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystem services (ES approach offers an integrated perspective of social-ecological systems, suitable for holistic assessments of mining impacts. Yet for ES models to be policy-relevant, methodological consensus in mining contexts is needed. We review articles assessing ES in mining areas focusing on freshwater components and policy support potential. Twenty-six articles were analysed concerning (i methodological complexity (data types, number of parameters, processes and ecosystem–human integration level and (ii potential applicability for policy development (communication of uncertainties, scenario simulation, stakeholder participation and management recommendations. Articles illustrate mining impacts on ES through valuation exercises mostly. However, the lack of ground- and surface-water measurements, as well as insufficient representation of the connectivity among soil, water and humans, leave room for improvements. Inclusion of mining-specific environmental stressors models, increasing resolution of topographies, determination of baseline ES patterns and inclusion of multi-stakeholder perspectives are advantageous for policy support. We argue that achieving more holistic assessments exhorts practitioners to aim for high social-ecological connectivity using mechanistic models where possible and using inductive methods only where necessary. Due to data constraints, cause–effect networks might be the most feasible and best solution. Thus, a policy-oriented framework is proposed, in which data science is directed to environmental modelling for analysis of mining impacts on water ES.

  8. Facebook's personal page modelling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarlis, Apostolos S.; Sakas, Damianos P.; Vlachos, D. S.

    2015-02-01

    In this paper we will try to define the utility of Facebook's Personal Page marketing method. This tool that Facebook provides, is modelled and simulated using iThink in the context of a Facebook marketing agency. The paper has leveraged the system's dynamic paradigm to conduct Facebook marketing tools and methods modelling, using iThink™ system to implement them. It uses the design science research methodology for the proof of concept of the models and modelling processes. The following model has been developed for a social media marketing agent/company, Facebook platform oriented and tested in real circumstances. This model is finalized through a number of revisions and iterators of the design, development, simulation, testing and evaluation processes. The validity and usefulness of this Facebook marketing model for the day-to-day decision making are authenticated by the management of the company organization. Facebook's Personal Page method can be adjusted, depending on the situation, in order to maximize the total profit of the company which is to bring new customers, keep the interest of the old customers and deliver traffic to its website.

  9. Modeling and simulation of photovoltaic solar panel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belarbi, M.; Haddouche, K.; Midoun, A.

    2006-01-01

    In this article, we present a new approach for estimating the model parameters of a photovoltaic solar panel according to the irradiance and temperature. The parameters of the one diode model are given from the knowledge of three operating points: short-circuit, open circuit, and maximum power. In the first step, the adopted approach concerns the resolution of the system of equations constituting the three operating points to write all the model parameters according to series resistance. Secondly, we make an iterative resolution at the optimal operating point by using the Newton-Raphson method to calculate the series resistance value as well as the model parameters. Once the panel model is identified, we consider other equations for taking into account the irradiance and temperature effect. The simulation results show the convergence speed of the model parameters and the possibility of visualizing the electrical behaviour of the panel according to the irradiance and temperature. Let us note that a sensitivity of the algorithm at the optimal operating point was observed owing to the fact that a small variation of the optimal voltage value leads to a very great variation of the identified parameters values. With the identified model, we can develop algorithms of maximum power point tracking, and make simulations of a solar water pumping system.(Author)

  10. A simulation model for material accounting systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coulter, C.A.; Thomas, K.E.

    1987-01-01

    A general-purpose model that was developed to simulate the operation of a chemical processing facility for nuclear materials has been extended to describe material measurement and accounting procedures as well. The model now provides descriptors for material balance areas, a large class of measurement instrument types and their associated measurement errors for various classes of materials, the measurement instruments themselves with their individual calibration schedules, and material balance closures. Delayed receipt of measurement results (as for off-line analytical chemistry assay), with interim use of a provisional measurement value, can be accurately represented. The simulation model can be used to estimate inventory difference variances for processing areas that do not operate at steady state, to evaluate the timeliness of measurement information, to determine process impacts of measurement requirements, and to evaluate the effectiveness of diversion-detection algorithms. Such information is usually difficult to obtain by other means. Use of the measurement simulation model is illustrated by applying it to estimate inventory difference variances for two material balance area structures of a fictitious nuclear material processing line

  11. Theory, modeling and simulation: Annual report 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunning, T.H. Jr.; Garrett, B.C.

    1994-07-01

    Developing the knowledge base needed to address the environmental restoration issues of the US Department of Energy requires a fundamental understanding of molecules and their interactions in insolation and in liquids, on surfaces, and at interfaces. To meet these needs, the PNL has established the Environmental and Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) and will soon begin construction of a new, collaborative research facility devoted to advancing the understanding of environmental molecular science. Research in the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation program (TMS), which is one of seven research directorates in the EMSL, will play a critical role in understanding molecular processes important in restoring DOE's research, development and production sites, including understanding the migration and reactions of contaminants in soils and groundwater, the development of separation process for isolation of pollutants, the development of improved materials for waste storage, understanding the enzymatic reactions involved in the biodegradation of contaminants, and understanding the interaction of hazardous chemicals with living organisms. The research objectives of the TMS program are to apply available techniques to study fundamental molecular processes involved in natural and contaminated systems; to extend current techniques to treat molecular systems of future importance and to develop techniques for addressing problems that are computationally intractable at present; to apply molecular modeling techniques to simulate molecular processes occurring in the multispecies, multiphase systems characteristic of natural and polluted environments; and to extend current molecular modeling techniques to treat complex molecular systems and to improve the reliability and accuracy of such simulations. The program contains three research activities: Molecular Theory/Modeling, Solid State Theory, and Biomolecular Modeling/Simulation. Extended abstracts are presented for 89 studies

  12. Theory, modeling and simulation: Annual report 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dunning, T.H. Jr.; Garrett, B.C.

    1994-07-01

    Developing the knowledge base needed to address the environmental restoration issues of the US Department of Energy requires a fundamental understanding of molecules and their interactions in insolation and in liquids, on surfaces, and at interfaces. To meet these needs, the PNL has established the Environmental and Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) and will soon begin construction of a new, collaborative research facility devoted to advancing the understanding of environmental molecular science. Research in the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation program (TMS), which is one of seven research directorates in the EMSL, will play a critical role in understanding molecular processes important in restoring DOE`s research, development and production sites, including understanding the migration and reactions of contaminants in soils and groundwater, the development of separation process for isolation of pollutants, the development of improved materials for waste storage, understanding the enzymatic reactions involved in the biodegradation of contaminants, and understanding the interaction of hazardous chemicals with living organisms. The research objectives of the TMS program are to apply available techniques to study fundamental molecular processes involved in natural and contaminated systems; to extend current techniques to treat molecular systems of future importance and to develop techniques for addressing problems that are computationally intractable at present; to apply molecular modeling techniques to simulate molecular processes occurring in the multispecies, multiphase systems characteristic of natural and polluted environments; and to extend current molecular modeling techniques to treat complex molecular systems and to improve the reliability and accuracy of such simulations. The program contains three research activities: Molecular Theory/Modeling, Solid State Theory, and Biomolecular Modeling/Simulation. Extended abstracts are presented for 89 studies.

  13. A Model Management Approach for Co-Simulation Model Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, X.C.; Broenink, Johannes F.; Filipe, Joaquim; Kacprzyk, Janusz; Pina, Nuno

    2011-01-01

    Simulating formal models is a common means for validating the correctness of the system design and reduce the time-to-market. In most of the embedded control system design, multiple engineering disciplines and various domain-specific models are often involved, such as mechanical, control, software

  14. eShopper modeling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrushin, Valery A.

    2001-03-01

    The advent of e-commerce gives an opportunity to shift the paradigm of customer communication into a highly interactive mode. The new generation of commercial Web servers, such as the Blue Martini's server, combines the collection of data on a customer behavior with real-time processing and dynamic tailoring of a feedback page. The new opportunities for direct product marketing and cross selling are arriving. The key problem is what kind of information do we need to achieve these goals, or in other words, how do we model the customer? The paper is devoted to customer modeling and simulation. The focus is on modeling an individual customer. The model is based on the customer's transaction data, click stream data, and demographics. The model includes the hierarchical profile of a customer's preferences to different types of products and brands; consumption models for the different types of products; the current focus, trends, and stochastic models for time intervals between purchases; product affinity models; and some generalized features, such as purchasing power, sensitivity to advertising, price sensitivity, etc. This type of model is used for predicting the date of the next visit, overall spending, and spending for different types of products and brands. For some type of stores (for example, a supermarket) and stable customers, it is possible to forecast the shopping lists rather accurately. The forecasting techniques are discussed. The forecasting results can be used for on- line direct marketing, customer retention, and inventory management. The customer model can also be used as a generative model for simulating the customer's purchasing behavior in different situations and for estimating customer's features.

  15. Stochastic modelling for financial bubbles and policy

    OpenAIRE

    Fry, John

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we draw upon the close relationship between statistical physics and mathematical finance to develop a suite of models for financial bubbles and crashes. By modifying previous approaches, we are able to derive novel analytical formulae for evaluation problems and for the expected timing of future change points. In particular, we help to explain why previous approaches have systematically overstated the timing of changes in market regime. The list of potential empirical applicati...

  16. Simulation modelling in agriculture: General considerations. | R.I. ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The computer does all the necessary arithmetic when the hypothesis is invoked to predict the future behaviour of the simulated system under given conditions.A general ... in the advisory service. Keywords: agriculture; botany; computer simulation; modelling; simulation model; simulation modelling; south africa; techniques ...

  17. Aqueous Electrolytes: Model Parameters and Process Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Kaj

    This thesis deals with aqueous electrolyte mixtures. The Extended UNIQUAC model is being used to describe the excess Gibbs energy of such solutions. Extended UNIQUAC parameters for the twelve ions Na+, K+, NH4+, H+, Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, HSO4-, OH-, CO32-, HCO3-, and S2O82- are estimated. A computer ...... program including a steady state process simulator for the design, simulation, and optimization of fractional crystallization processes is presented.......This thesis deals with aqueous electrolyte mixtures. The Extended UNIQUAC model is being used to describe the excess Gibbs energy of such solutions. Extended UNIQUAC parameters for the twelve ions Na+, K+, NH4+, H+, Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, HSO4-, OH-, CO32-, HCO3-, and S2O82- are estimated. A computer...

  18. Modeling policy issues in a world of imperfect competition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dierker, Egbert; Grodal, Birgit

    1998-01-01

    General equilibrium theory constitutes a sound basis for the discussion of policy issues if firms do not have market power. However, if firms influence prices strategically, the concept of profits loses its meaning due to the price normalization problem. Hence, it is unclear how to model the beha......General equilibrium theory constitutes a sound basis for the discussion of policy issues if firms do not have market power. However, if firms influence prices strategically, the concept of profits loses its meaning due to the price normalization problem. Hence, it is unclear how to model...... as well as on shareholders' aggregate demand...

  19. Long term modelling in a second rank world: application to climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crassous, R.

    2008-11-01

    This research aims at the identification of the dissatisfaction reasons with respect to the existing climate models, at the design of an innovating modelling architecture which would respond to these dissatisfactions, and at proposing climate policy assessment pathways. The authors gives a critique assessment of the modelling activity within the field of climate policies, outlines the fact that the large number and the scattering of existing long term scenarios hides a weak control of uncertainties and of the inner consistency of the produced paths, as well as the very low number of modelling paradigms. After a deepened analysis of modelling practices, the author presents the IMACLIM-R modelling architecture which is presented on a world scale and includes 12 areas and 12 sectors, and allows the simulation of evolutions by 2050, and even 2100, with a one-year time step. The author describes a scenario without any climate policy, highlights reassessment possibilities for economical trajectories which would allow greenhouse gas concentration stabilisation on a long term basis through the application of IMACLIM-R innovations. He outlines adjustment and refinement possibilities for climate policies which would robustly limit the transition cost risks

  20. A Placement Model for Flight Simulators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-09-01

    simulator basing strategies. Captains David R. VanDenburg and Jon D. Veith developed a mathematical model to assist in the placement analysis of A-7...Institute for Defense Analysis, Arlington VA, August 1977. AD A049979. 23. Sugarman , Robert C., Steven L. Johnson, and William F. H. Ring. "B-I Systems...USAF Cost and Plan- nin& Factors. AFR 173-13. Washington: Govern- ment Printing Office, I February 1982. * 30. Van Denburg, Captain David R., USAF

  1. Stochastic modelling for financial bubbles and policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Fry

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we draw upon the close relationship between statistical physics and mathematical finance to develop a suite of models for financial bubbles and crashes. By modifying previous approaches, we are able to derive novel analytical formulae for evaluation problems and for the expected timing of future change points. In particular, we help to explain why previous approaches have systematically overstated the timing of changes in market regime. The list of potential empirical applications is deep and wide ranging, and includes contemporary housing bubbles, the Eurozone crisis and the Crash of 2008.

  2. Spatial policy, planning and infrastructure investment: lessons from urban simulations in three South African cities

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Coetzee, M

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available in infrastructure that will not have the desired impact on city functioning. The time has arrived to harness hard evidence to develop fresh perspectives on planning and infrastructure investment that will help to extricate ourselves from the dilemma of neo...: 072 892 8350, email: Spatial policy, planning and infrastructure investment: Lessons from urban simulations in three South African cities Maria Coetzee(†), Louis Waldeck, Alize le Roux, Cathy Meiklejohn, Willemien van...

  3. Modelling interplanetary CMEs using magnetohydrodynamic simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Cargill

    Full Text Available The dynamics of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs are discussed from the viewpoint of numerical modelling. Hydrodynamic models are shown to give a good zero-order picture of the plasma properties of ICMEs, but they cannot model the important magnetic field effects. Results from MHD simulations are shown for a number of cases of interest. It is demonstrated that the strong interaction of the ICME with the solar wind leads to the ICME and solar wind velocities being close to each other at 1 AU, despite their having very different speeds near the Sun. It is also pointed out that this interaction leads to a distortion of the ICME geometry, making cylindrical symmetry a dubious assumption for the CME field at 1 AU. In the presence of a significant solar wind magnetic field, the magnetic fields of the ICME and solar wind can reconnect with each other, leading to an ICME that has solar wind-like field lines. This effect is especially important when an ICME with the right sense of rotation propagates down the heliospheric current sheet. It is also noted that a lack of knowledge of the coronal magnetic field makes such simulations of little use in space weather forecasts that require knowledge of the ICME magnetic field strength.

    Key words. Interplanetary physics (interplanetary magnetic fields Solar physics, astrophysics, and astronomy (flares and mass ejections Space plasma physics (numerical simulation studies

  4. An Integrative Behavioral Model of Information Security Policy Compliance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang Hoon Kim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The authors found the behavioral factors that influence the organization members’ compliance with the information security policy in organizations on the basis of neutralization theory, Theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory. Depending on the theory of planned behavior, members’ attitudes towards compliance, as well as normative belief and self-efficacy, were believed to determine the intention to comply with the information security policy. Neutralization theory, a prominent theory in criminology, could be expected to provide the explanation for information system security policy violations. Based on the protection motivation theory, it was inferred that the expected efficacy could have an impact on intentions of compliance. By the above logical reasoning, the integrative behavioral model and eight hypotheses could be derived. Data were collected by conducting a survey; 194 out of 207 questionnaires were available. The test of the causal model was conducted by PLS. The reliability, validity, and model fit were found to be statistically significant. The results of the hypotheses tests showed that seven of the eight hypotheses were acceptable. The theoretical implications of this study are as follows: (1 the study is expected to play a role of the baseline for future research about organization members’ compliance with the information security policy, (2 the study attempted an interdisciplinary approach by combining psychology and information system security research, and (3 the study suggested concrete operational definitions of influencing factors for information security policy compliance through a comprehensive theoretical review. Also, the study has some practical implications. First, it can provide the guideline to support the successful execution of the strategic establishment for the implement of information system security policies in organizations. Second, it proves that the need of education and training

  5. An integrative behavioral model of information security policy compliance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sang Hoon; Yang, Kyung Hoon; Park, Sunyoung

    2014-01-01

    The authors found the behavioral factors that influence the organization members' compliance with the information security policy in organizations on the basis of neutralization theory, Theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory. Depending on the theory of planned behavior, members' attitudes towards compliance, as well as normative belief and self-efficacy, were believed to determine the intention to comply with the information security policy. Neutralization theory, a prominent theory in criminology, could be expected to provide the explanation for information system security policy violations. Based on the protection motivation theory, it was inferred that the expected efficacy could have an impact on intentions of compliance. By the above logical reasoning, the integrative behavioral model and eight hypotheses could be derived. Data were collected by conducting a survey; 194 out of 207 questionnaires were available. The test of the causal model was conducted by PLS. The reliability, validity, and model fit were found to be statistically significant. The results of the hypotheses tests showed that seven of the eight hypotheses were acceptable. The theoretical implications of this study are as follows: (1) the study is expected to play a role of the baseline for future research about organization members' compliance with the information security policy, (2) the study attempted an interdisciplinary approach by combining psychology and information system security research, and (3) the study suggested concrete operational definitions of influencing factors for information security policy compliance through a comprehensive theoretical review. Also, the study has some practical implications. First, it can provide the guideline to support the successful execution of the strategic establishment for the implement of information system security policies in organizations. Second, it proves that the need of education and training programs suppressing

  6. Carbon tax simulations using a household demand model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braennlund, Runar; Nordstroem, Jonas [Umeaa Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Economics

    1999-11-01

    The main objective of this paper is to analyse consumer response due to changes in energy or environmental policy. To achieve the objective we formulate and estimate an econometric model for non-durable consumer demand in Sweden that utilises micro- as well as macro-data. The microeconomic model is conditional on male and female labour supply. A 100 percent increase of the Swedish CO{sub 2} tax will, according to the simulations, result in an increased tax payment of SEK 630 or 0.7 percent of disposable income for the households with the lowest disposable incomes. The corresponding numbers for the richest households are SEK 990 and 0.3 percent 38 refs, 10 tabs

  7. Carbon tax simulations using a household demand model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braennlund, Runar; Nordstroem, Jonas [Umeaa Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Economics

    1999-07-01

    The main objective of this paper is to analyse consumer response due to changes in energy or environmental policy. To achieve the objective we formulate and estimate an econometric model for non-durable consumer demand in Sweden that utilises micro- as well as macro-data. The microeconomic model is conditional on male and female labour supply. A 100 percent increase of the Swedish CO{sub 2} tax will, according to the simulations, result in an increased tax payment of SEK 630 or 0.7 percent of disposable income for the households with the lowest disposable incomes. The corresponding numbers for the richest households are SEK 990 and 0.3 percent 38 refs, 10 tabs.

  8. Carbon tax simulations using a household demand model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braennlund, Runar; Nordstroem, Jonas

    1999-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to analyse consumer response due to changes in energy or environmental policy. To achieve the objective we formulate and estimate an econometric model for non-durable consumer demand in Sweden that utilises micro- as well as macro-data. The microeconomic model is conditional on male and female labour supply. A 100 percent increase of the Swedish CO 2 tax will, according to the simulations, result in an increased tax payment of SEK 630 or 0.7 percent of disposable income for the households with the lowest disposable incomes. The corresponding numbers for the richest households are SEK 990 and 0.3 percent 38 refs, 10 tabs

  9. MODELING AND SIMULATION OF A HYDROCRACKING UNIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HASSAN A. FARAG

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Hydrocracking is used in the petroleum industry to convert low quality feed stocks into high valued transportation fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. The aim of the present work is to develop a rigorous steady state two-dimensional mathematical model which includes conservation equations of mass and energy for simulating the operation of a hydrocracking unit. Both the catalyst bed and quench zone have been included in this integrated model. The model equations were numerically solved in both axial and radial directions using Matlab software. The presented model was tested against a real plant data in Egypt. The results indicated that a very good agreement between the model predictions and industrial values have been reported for temperature profiles, concentration profiles, and conversion in both radial and axial directions at the hydrocracking unit. Simulation of the quench zone conversion and temperature profiles in the quench zone was also included and gave a low deviation from the actual ones. In concentration profiles, the percentage deviation in the first reactor was found to be 9.28 % and 9.6% for the second reactor. The effect of several parameters such as: Pellet Heat Transfer Coefficient, Effective Radial Thermal Conductivity, Wall Heat Transfer Coefficient, Effective Radial Diffusivity, and Cooling medium (quench zone has been included in this study. The variation of Wall Heat Transfer Coefficient, Effective Radial Diffusivity for the near-wall region, gave no remarkable changes in the temperature profiles. On the other hand, even small variations of Effective Radial Thermal Conductivity, affected the simulated temperature profiles significantly, and this effect could not be compensated by the variations of the other parameters of the model.

  10. Reactive transport models and simulation with ALLIANCES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leterrier, N.; Deville, E.; Bary, B.; Trotignon, L.; Hedde, T.; Cochepin, B.; Stora, E.

    2009-01-01

    Many chemical processes influence the evolution of nuclear waste storage. As a result, simulations based only upon transport and hydraulic processes fail to describe adequately some industrial scenarios. We need to take into account complex chemical models (mass action laws, kinetics...) which are highly non-linear. In order to simulate the coupling of these chemical reactions with transport, we use a classical Sequential Iterative Approach (SIA), with a fixed point algorithm, within the mainframe of the ALLIANCES platform. This approach allows us to use the various transport and chemical modules available in ALLIANCES, via an operator-splitting method based upon the structure of the chemical system. We present five different applications of reactive transport simulations in the context of nuclear waste storage: 1. A 2D simulation of the lixiviation by rain water of an underground polluted zone high in uranium oxide; 2. The degradation of the steel envelope of a package in contact with clay. Corrosion of the steel creates corrosion products and the altered package becomes a porous medium. We follow the degradation front through kinetic reactions and the coupling with transport; 3. The degradation of a cement-based material by the injection of an aqueous solution of zinc and sulphate ions. In addition to the reactive transport coupling, we take into account in this case the hydraulic retroaction of the porosity variation on the Darcy velocity; 4. The decalcification of a concrete beam in an underground storage structure. In this case, in addition to the reactive transport simulation, we take into account the interaction between chemical degradation and the mechanical forces (cracks...), and the retroactive influence on the structure changes on transport; 5. The degradation of the steel envelope of a package in contact with a clay material under a temperature gradient. In this case the reactive transport simulation is entirely directed by the temperature changes and

  11. Condition-based maintenance effectiveness for series–parallel power generation system—A combined Markovian simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azadeh, A.; Asadzadeh, S.M.; Salehi, N.; Firoozi, M.

    2015-01-01

    Condition-based maintenance (CBM) is an increasingly applicable policy in the competitive marketplace as a means of improving equipment reliability and efficiency. Not only has maintenance a close relationship with safety but its costs also make it even more attractive issue for researchers. This study proposes a model to evaluate the effectiveness of CBM policy compared to two other maintenance policies: Corrective Maintenance (CM) and Preventive Maintenance (PM). Maintenance policies are compared through two system performance indicators: reliability and cost. To estimate the reliability and costs of the system, the proposed Markovian discrete-event simulation model is developed under each of these policies. The applicability and usefulness of the proposed Markovian simulation model is illustrated for a series–parallel power generation system. The simulated characteristics of CBM system include its prognostics efficiency to estimate remaining useful life of the equipment. Results show that with an efficient prognostics, CBM policy is an effective strategy compared to other maintenance strategies. - Highlights: • A model is developed to evaluate the effectiveness of CBM policy. • Maintenance policies are compared through reliability and cost. • A Markovian simulation model is developed. • A series–parallel power generation system is considered. • CBM is an effective strategy compared to others

  12. Simulation models generator. Applications in scheduling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Danilo Castrillón

    2013-08-01

    Rev.Mate.Teor.Aplic. (ISSN 1409-2433 Vol. 20(2: 231–241, July 2013 generador de modelos de simulacion 233 will, in order to have an approach to reality to evaluate decisions in order to take more assertive. To test prototype was used as the modeling example of a production system with 9 machines and 5 works as a job shop configuration, testing stops processing times and stochastic machine to measure rates of use of machines and time average jobs in the system, as measures of system performance. This test shows the goodness of the prototype, to save the user the simulation model building

  13. Computer Models Simulate Fine Particle Dispersion

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Through a NASA Seed Fund partnership with DEM Solutions Inc., of Lebanon, New Hampshire, scientists at Kennedy Space Center refined existing software to study the electrostatic phenomena of granular and bulk materials as they apply to planetary surfaces. The software, EDEM, allows users to import particles and obtain accurate representations of their shapes for modeling purposes, such as simulating bulk solids behavior, and was enhanced to be able to more accurately model fine, abrasive, cohesive particles. These new EDEM capabilities can be applied in many industries unrelated to space exploration and have been adopted by several prominent U.S. companies, including John Deere, Pfizer, and Procter & Gamble.

  14. Modeling and simulation of reactive flows

    CERN Document Server

    Bortoli, De AL; Pereira, Felipe

    2015-01-01

    Modelling and Simulation of Reactive Flows presents information on modeling and how to numerically solve reactive flows. The book offers a distinctive approach that combines diffusion flames and geochemical flow problems, providing users with a comprehensive resource that bridges the gap for scientists, engineers, and the industry. Specifically, the book looks at the basic concepts related to reaction rates, chemical kinetics, and the development of reduced kinetic mechanisms. It considers the most common methods used in practical situations, along with equations for reactive flows, and va

  15. Production functions for climate policy modeling. An empirical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Werf, Edwin

    2008-01-01

    Quantitative models for climate policy modeling differ in the production structure used and in the sizes of the elasticities of substitution. The empirical foundation for both is generally lacking. This paper estimates the parameters of 2-level CES production functions with capital, labour and energy as inputs, and is the first to systematically compare all nesting structures. Using industry-level data from 12 OECD countries, we find that the nesting structure where capital and labour are combined first, fits the data best, but for most countries and industries we cannot reject that all three inputs can be put into one single nest. These two nesting structures are used by most climate models. However, while several climate policy models use a Cobb-Douglas function for (part of the) production function, we reject elasticities equal to one, in favour of considerably smaller values. Finally we find evidence for factor-specific technological change. With lower elasticities and with factor-specific technological change, some climate policy models may find a bigger effect of endogenous technological change on mitigating the costs of climate policy. (author)

  16. TMS modeling toolbox for realistic simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Young Sun; Suh, Hyun Sang; Lee, Won Hee; Kim, Tae-Seong

    2010-01-01

    Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) is a technique for brain stimulation using rapidly changing magnetic fields generated by coils. It has been established as an effective stimulation technique to treat patients suffering from damaged brain functions. Although TMS is known to be painless and noninvasive, it can also be harmful to the brain by incorrect focusing and excessive stimulation which might result in seizure. Therefore there is ongoing research effort to elucidate and better understand the effect and mechanism of TMS. Lately Boundary element method (BEM) and Finite element method (FEM) have been used to simulate the electromagnetic phenomenon of TMS. However, there is a lack of general tools to generate the models of TMS due to some difficulties in realistic modeling of the human head and TMS coils. In this study, we have developed a toolbox through which one can generate high-resolution FE TMS models. The toolbox allows creating FE models of the head with isotropic and anisotropic electrical conductivities in five different tissues of the head and the coils in 3D. The generated TMS model is importable to FE software packages such as ANSYS for further and efficient electromagnetic analysis. We present a set of demonstrative results of realistic simulation of TMS with our toolbox.

  17. Wedge Experiment Modeling and Simulation for Reactive Flow Model Calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maestas, Joseph T.; Dorgan, Robert J.; Sutherland, Gerrit T.

    2017-06-01

    Wedge experiments are a typical method for generating pop-plot data (run-to-detonation distance versus input shock pressure), which is used to assess an explosive material's initiation behavior. Such data can be utilized to calibrate reactive flow models by running hydrocode simulations and successively tweaking model parameters until a match between experiment is achieved. Typical simulations are performed in 1D and typically use a flyer impact to achieve the prescribed shock loading pressure. In this effort, a wedge experiment performed at the Army Research Lab (ARL) was modeled using CTH (SNL hydrocode) in 1D, 2D, and 3D space in order to determine if there was any justification in using simplified models. A simulation was also performed using the BCAT code (CTH companion tool) that assumes a plate impact shock loading. Results from the simulations were compared to experimental data and show that the shock imparted into an explosive specimen is accurately captured with 2D and 3D simulations, but changes significantly in 1D space and with the BCAT tool. The difference in shock profile is shown to only affect numerical predictions for large run distances. This is attributed to incorrectly capturing the energy fluence for detonation waves versus flat shock loading. Portions of this work were funded through the Joint Insensitive Munitions Technology Program.

  18. The electricity portfolio simulation model (EPSim) technical description.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drennen, Thomas E.; Klotz, Richard (Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY)

    2005-09-01

    Stakeholders often have competing interests when selecting or planning new power plants. The purpose of developing this preliminary Electricity Portfolio Simulation Model (EPSim) is to provide a first cut, dynamic methodology and approach to this problem, that can subsequently be refined and validated, that may help energy planners, policy makers, and energy students better understand the tradeoffs associated with competing electricity portfolios. EPSim allows the user to explore competing electricity portfolios annually from 2002 to 2025 in terms of five different criteria: cost, environmental impacts, energy dependence, health and safety, and sustainability. Four additional criteria (infrastructure vulnerability, service limitations, policy needs and science and technology needs) may be added in future versions of the model. Using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach, users or groups of users apply weights to each of the criteria. The default energy assumptions of the model mimic Department of Energy's (DOE) electricity portfolio to 2025 (EIA, 2005). At any time, the user can compare alternative portfolios to this reference case portfolio.

  19. Integrating Visualizations into Modeling NEST Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowke, Christian; Zielasko, Daniel; Weyers, Benjamin; Peyser, Alexander; Hentschel, Bernd; Kuhlen, Torsten W

    2015-01-01

    Modeling large-scale spiking neural networks showing realistic biological behavior in their dynamics is a complex and tedious task. Since these networks consist of millions of interconnected neurons, their simulation produces an immense amount of data. In recent years it has become possible to simulate even larger networks. However, solutions to assist researchers in understanding the simulation's complex emergent behavior by means of visualization are still lacking. While developing tools to partially fill this gap, we encountered the challenge to integrate these tools easily into the neuroscientists' daily workflow. To understand what makes this so challenging, we looked into the workflows of our collaborators and analyzed how they use the visualizations to solve their daily problems. We identified two major issues: first, the analysis process can rapidly change focus which requires to switch the visualization tool that assists in the current problem domain. Second, because of the heterogeneous data that results from simulations, researchers want to relate data to investigate these effectively. Since a monolithic application model, processing and visualizing all data modalities and reflecting all combinations of possible workflows in a holistic way, is most likely impossible to develop and to maintain, a software architecture that offers specialized visualization tools that run simultaneously and can be linked together to reflect the current workflow, is a more feasible approach. To this end, we have developed a software architecture that allows neuroscientists to integrate visualization tools more closely into the modeling tasks. In addition, it forms the basis for semantic linking of different visualizations to reflect the current workflow. In this paper, we present this architecture and substantiate the usefulness of our approach by common use cases we encountered in our collaborative work.

  20. Integrating Visualizations into Modeling NEST Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian eNowke

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Modeling large-scale spiking neural networks showing realistic biological behavior in their dynamics is a complex and tedious task. Since these networks consist of millions of interconnected neurons, their simulation produces an immense amount of data. In recent years it has become possible to simulate even larger networks. However, solutions to assist researchers in understanding the simulation's complex emergent behavior by means of visualization are still lacking. While developing tools to partially fill this gap, we encountered the challenge to integrate these tools easily into the neuroscientists' daily workflow. To understand what makes this so challenging, we looked into the workflows of our collaborators and analyzed how they use the visualizations to solve their daily problems. We identified two major issues: first, the analysis process can rapidly change focus which requires to switch the visualization tool that assists in the current problem domain. Second, because of the heterogeneous data that results from simulations, researchers want to relate data to investigate these effectively. Since a monolithic application model, processing and visualizing all data modalities and reflecting all combinations of possible workflows in a holistic way, is most likely impossible to develop and to maintain, a software architecture that offers specialized visualization tools that run simultaneously and can be linked together to reflect the current workflow, is a more feasible approach. To this end, we have developed a software architecture that allows neuroscientists to integrate visualization tools more closely into the modeling tasks. In addition, it forms the basis for semantic linking of different visualizations to reflect the current workflow. In this paper, we present this architecture and substantiate the usefulness of our approach by common use cases we encountered in our collaborative work.

  1. Integrating Visualizations into Modeling NEST Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowke, Christian; Zielasko, Daniel; Weyers, Benjamin; Peyser, Alexander; Hentschel, Bernd; Kuhlen, Torsten W.

    2015-01-01

    Modeling large-scale spiking neural networks showing realistic biological behavior in their dynamics is a complex and tedious task. Since these networks consist of millions of interconnected neurons, their simulation produces an immense amount of data. In recent years it has become possible to simulate even larger networks. However, solutions to assist researchers in understanding the simulation's complex emergent behavior by means of visualization are still lacking. While developing tools to partially fill this gap, we encountered the challenge to integrate these tools easily into the neuroscientists' daily workflow. To understand what makes this so challenging, we looked into the workflows of our collaborators and analyzed how they use the visualizations to solve their daily problems. We identified two major issues: first, the analysis process can rapidly change focus which requires to switch the visualization tool that assists in the current problem domain. Second, because of the heterogeneous data that results from simulations, researchers want to relate data to investigate these effectively. Since a monolithic application model, processing and visualizing all data modalities and reflecting all combinations of possible workflows in a holistic way, is most likely impossible to develop and to maintain, a software architecture that offers specialized visualization tools that run simultaneously and can be linked together to reflect the current workflow, is a more feasible approach. To this end, we have developed a software architecture that allows neuroscientists to integrate visualization tools more closely into the modeling tasks. In addition, it forms the basis for semantic linking of different visualizations to reflect the current workflow. In this paper, we present this architecture and substantiate the usefulness of our approach by common use cases we encountered in our collaborative work. PMID:26733860

  2. Efficient Turbulence Modeling for CFD Wake Simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Laan, Paul

    , that can accurately and efficiently simulate wind turbine wakes. The linear k-ε eddy viscosity model (EVM) is a popular turbulence model in RANS; however, it underpredicts the velocity wake deficit and cannot predict the anisotropic Reynolds-stresses in the wake. In the current work, nonlinear eddy...... viscosity models (NLEVM) are applied to wind turbine wakes. NLEVMs can model anisotropic turbulence through a nonlinear stress-strain relation, and they can improve the velocity deficit by the use of a variable eddy viscosity coefficient, that delays the wake recovery. Unfortunately, all tested NLEVMs show...... numerically unstable behavior for fine grids, which inhibits a grid dependency study for numerical verification. Therefore, a simpler EVM is proposed, labeled as the k-ε - fp EVM, that has a linear stress-strain relation, but still has a variable eddy viscosity coefficient. The k-ε - fp EVM is numerically...

  3. Modeling and simulation of gamma camera

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, B.; Kataria, S.K.; Samuel, A.M.

    2002-08-01

    Simulation techniques play a vital role in designing of sophisticated instruments and also for the training of operating and maintenance staff. Gamma camera systems have been used for functional imaging in nuclear medicine. Functional images are derived from the external counting of the gamma emitting radioactive tracer that after introduction in to the body mimics the behavior of native biochemical compound. The position sensitive detector yield the coordinates of the gamma ray interaction with the detector and are used to estimate the point of gamma ray emission within the tracer distribution space. This advanced imaging device is thus dependent on the performance of algorithm for coordinate computing, estimation of point of emission, generation of image and display of the image data. Contemporary systems also have protocols for quality control and clinical evaluation of imaging studies. Simulation of this processing leads to understanding of the basic camera design problems. This report describes a PC based package for design and simulation of gamma camera along with the options of simulating data acquisition and quality control of imaging studies. Image display and data processing the other options implemented in SIMCAM will be described in separate reports (under preparation). Gamma camera modeling and simulation in SIMCAM has preset configuration of the design parameters for various sizes of crystal detector with the option to pack the PMT on hexagon or square lattice. Different algorithm for computation of coordinates and spatial distortion removal are allowed in addition to the simulation of energy correction circuit. The user can simulate different static, dynamic, MUGA and SPECT studies. The acquired/ simulated data is processed for quality control and clinical evaluation of the imaging studies. Results show that the program can be used to assess these performances. Also the variations in performance parameters can be assessed due to the induced

  4. Desktop Modeling and Simulation: Parsimonious, yet Effective Discrete-Event Simulation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, James R.

    2012-01-01

    This paper evaluates how quickly students can be trained to construct useful discrete-event simulation models using Excel The typical supply chain used by many large national retailers is described, and an Excel-based simulation model is constructed of it The set of programming and simulation skills required for development of that model are then determined we conclude that six hours of training are required to teach the skills to MBA students . The simulation presented here contains all fundamental functionallty of a simulation model, and so our result holds for any discrete-event simulation model. We argue therefore that Industry workers with the same technical skill set as students having completed one year in an MBA program can be quickly trained to construct simulation models. This result gives credence to the efficacy of Desktop Modeling and Simulation whereby simulation analyses can be quickly developed, run, and analyzed with widely available software, namely Excel.

  5. Formulation of an Integrated Model for Freshwater Resources Policy Evaluation in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorelick, S.; Yoon, J.; Gawel, E.; Klauer, B.; Klassert, C. J. A.; Sigel, K.; Tilmant, A.; Lachaut, T.; Avisse, N.; Harou, J. J.; Padula, S.; Mustafa, D.

    2014-12-01

    Jordan is one of the four water poorest countries in the world. It is a highly vulnerable arid region whose freshwater system is at a tipping point due to the confluence of severely limited water supplies, rapid population growth, refugee influxes, climate change and variability, internal and transboundary competition for shared freshwater resources, and institutional impediments. Our team is engaged in an interdisciplinary effort aimed at developing a new approach to evaluate policies that enhance sustainability of freshwater resource systems. Our work adopts a multi-agent modeling framework that incorporates institutional complexity to evaluate policy instruments for improving water security in Jordan. We are developing this model using a modular approach, integrating biophysical modules that simulate natural and engineered phenomena (e.g., groundwater-surface water flow, reservoir storage, network routing, salt balance, and crop yield) with human modules that represent behavior at multiple scales of decision making. The human modules adopt a multi-agent simulation approach, defining agents as autonomous decision-makers at the government, administrative, organizational, and user levels. Our goal is to construct a suite of policy intervention scenarios that will form the basis for analysis of freshwater sustainability. This work has benefitted from a strong working relationship with leaders of the water sector in Jordan. Our approach and the merit of the policy interventions should have significant transfer value to other water-stressed regions.

  6. Multi-agent modeling for water policy impact assessment: a road map

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Mazzega

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Water policies have a great impact upon different types of resources (water, land and soil resources; infrastructure and facilities; financial resources; environmental knowledge and information; etc.. They involve many individual or collective actors (users, managers, public or private companies, associations, etc. as well as rules and norms of behavior that these actors are the recipients or agents. Complex systems, if any, these policies have several kinds of effects, expected and unexpected, direct and indirect effects, societal, economic, environmental and eco-systemic. The current development of multi-agent platforms opens up a new area for the definition, design, implementation and monitoring of water management by producing ex ante simulations of the impact of measures that promote water public policies and of the likely evolution of the socio-hydrosystem concerned. Here we give a quick overview of these new opportunities of water policy modeling and impact assessment. We summarize the steps of the modeling process and present the main ingredients entering in the composition of a platform dedicated to impact simulations. We also argue the interest of building water scenarios and producing useful indicators for decision-making regarding the use, distribution and management of water resources at the basin-scale.

  7. Sustaining critical care: using evidence-based simulation to evaluate ICU management policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoudian-Dehkordi, Amin; Sadat, Somayeh

    2017-12-01

    Intensive Care Units (ICU) are costly yet critical hospital departments that should be available to care for patients needing highly specialized critical care. Shortage of ICU beds in many regions of the world and the constant fire-fighting to make these beds available through various ICU management policies motivated this study. The paper discusses the application of a generic system dynamics model of emergency patient flow in a typical hospital, populated with empirical evidence found in the medical and hospital administration literature, to explore the dynamics of intended and unintended consequences of such ICU management policies under a natural disaster crisis scenario. ICU management policies that can be implemented by a single hospital on short notice, namely premature transfer from ICU, boarding in ward, and general ward admission control, along with their possible combinations, are modeled and their impact on managerial and health outcome measures are investigated. The main insight out of the study is that the general ward admission control policy outperforms the rest of ICU management policies under such crisis scenarios with regards to reducing total mortality, which is counter intuitive for hospital administrators as this policy is not very effective at alleviating the symptoms of the problem, namely high ED and ICU occupancy rates that are closely monitored by hospital management particularly in times of crisis. A multivariate sensitivity analysis on parameters with diverse range of values in the literature found the superiority of the general ward admission control to hold true in every scenario.

  8. Best Practices for Crash Modeling and Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fasanella, Edwin L.; Jackson, Karen E.

    2002-01-01

    Aviation safety can be greatly enhanced by the expeditious use of computer simulations of crash impact. Unlike automotive impact testing, which is now routine, experimental crash tests of even small aircraft are expensive and complex due to the high cost of the aircraft and the myriad of crash impact conditions that must be considered. Ultimately, the goal is to utilize full-scale crash simulations of aircraft for design evaluation and certification. The objective of this publication is to describe "best practices" for modeling aircraft impact using explicit nonlinear dynamic finite element codes such as LS-DYNA, DYNA3D, and MSC.Dytran. Although "best practices" is somewhat relative, it is hoped that the authors' experience will help others to avoid some of the common pitfalls in modeling that are not documented in one single publication. In addition, a discussion of experimental data analysis, digital filtering, and test-analysis correlation is provided. Finally, some examples of aircraft crash simulations are described in several appendices following the main report.

  9. Systematic simulations of modified gravity: chameleon models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brax, Philippe [Institut de Physique Theorique, CEA, IPhT, CNRS, URA 2306, F-91191Gif/Yvette Cedex (France); Davis, Anne-Christine [DAMTP, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA (United Kingdom); Li, Baojiu [Institute for Computational Cosmology, Department of Physics, Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE (United Kingdom); Winther, Hans A. [Institute of Theoretical Astrophysics, University of Oslo, 0315 Oslo (Norway); Zhao, Gong-Bo, E-mail: philippe.brax@cea.fr, E-mail: a.c.davis@damtp.cam.ac.uk, E-mail: baojiu.li@durham.ac.uk, E-mail: h.a.winther@astro.uio.no, E-mail: gong-bo.zhao@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth PO1 3FX (United Kingdom)

    2013-04-01

    In this work we systematically study the linear and nonlinear structure formation in chameleon theories of modified gravity, using a generic parameterisation which describes a large class of models using only 4 parameters. For this we have modified the N-body simulation code ecosmog to perform a total of 65 simulations for different models and parameter values, including the default ΛCDM. These simulations enable us to explore a significant portion of the parameter space. We have studied the effects of modified gravity on the matter power spectrum and mass function, and found a rich and interesting phenomenology where the difference with the ΛCDM paradigm cannot be reproduced by a linear analysis even on scales as large as k ∼ 0.05 hMpc{sup −1}, since the latter incorrectly assumes that the modification of gravity depends only on the background matter density. Our results show that the chameleon screening mechanism is significantly more efficient than other mechanisms such as the dilaton and symmetron, especially in high-density regions and at early times, and can serve as a guidance to determine the parts of the chameleon parameter space which are cosmologically interesting and thus merit further studies in the future.

  10. Systematic simulations of modified gravity: chameleon models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brax, Philippe; Davis, Anne-Christine; Li, Baojiu; Winther, Hans A.; Zhao, Gong-Bo

    2013-01-01

    In this work we systematically study the linear and nonlinear structure formation in chameleon theories of modified gravity, using a generic parameterisation which describes a large class of models using only 4 parameters. For this we have modified the N-body simulation code ecosmog to perform a total of 65 simulations for different models and parameter values, including the default ΛCDM. These simulations enable us to explore a significant portion of the parameter space. We have studied the effects of modified gravity on the matter power spectrum and mass function, and found a rich and interesting phenomenology where the difference with the ΛCDM paradigm cannot be reproduced by a linear analysis even on scales as large as k ∼ 0.05 hMpc −1 , since the latter incorrectly assumes that the modification of gravity depends only on the background matter density. Our results show that the chameleon screening mechanism is significantly more efficient than other mechanisms such as the dilaton and symmetron, especially in high-density regions and at early times, and can serve as a guidance to determine the parts of the chameleon parameter space which are cosmologically interesting and thus merit further studies in the future

  11. Mapping and modelling ecosystem services for science, policy and practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burkhard, B.; Crossman, N.; Nedkov, S.; Petz, K.; Alkemade, R.

    2013-01-01

    Ecosystem services are a significant research and policy topic and there are many modelling and mapping approaches aimed at understanding the stocks, demands and flows of ecosystem services on different spatial and temporal scales. The integration of geo-biophysical processes and structure

  12. An applied general equilibrium model for Dutch agribusiness policy analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peerlings, J.

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis was to develop a basic static applied general equilibrium (AGE) model to analyse the effects of agricultural policy changes on Dutch agribusiness. In particular the effects on inter-industry transactions, factor demand, income, and trade are of

  13. Closed loop models for analyzing engineering requirements for simulators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, S.; Muralidharan, R.; Kleinman, D.

    1980-01-01

    A closed loop analytic model, incorporating a model for the human pilot, (namely, the optimal control model) that would allow certain simulation design tradeoffs to be evaluated quantitatively was developed. This model was applied to a realistic flight control problem. The resulting model is used to analyze both overall simulation effects and the effects of individual elements. The results show that, as compared to an ideal continuous simulation, the discrete simulation can result in significant performance and/or workload penalties.

  14. Quantification model of the consequences of monetary policy shocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Emilia POPA

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The monetary analysis based on the BVAR (Bayesian Vector Autoregression model is extremely important in the monetary policy implementation strategy, the information provided is important not only for the Central Bank, but also for the economic agents and the population. Therefore, conducting this analysis at the level of Romania helps to understand better the mechanism by which monetary policy is transmitted in order to achieve the set target, namely inflation targeting, but it also provides us with important information regarding the accession to the euro area. The model we are trying to test helps us understand through the correlations between the interest rate, GDP and the inflation rate how monetary policy responds to shocks. The model follows the methodology presented by Sims and Zha (1998 in the paper "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models and Using the Bayesian Autoregressive Vector". In the analysis of this model, quarterly data for a minimum of three years, three variables are used to make the results relevant. The data needed to model the model are used in logarithmic form, except for the interest rate, and the outcome is applied to a differentiated premium operator. Of the variables used, the interest rate is the only one that does not allow seasonal adjustment.

  15. What Can Policy Analysis Add to Evaluation Research?: Predictive Modeling and Policy Optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagel, Stuart S.

    Policy analysis, or policy study, is defined as the study of the nature, causes, and effects of alternative public policies; sometimes policy analysis refers to specific methods used. Two new developments associated with policy analysis are discussed. One is the concern for deducing the effects of alternative policies before they are adopted, as…

  16. Integrating the simulation of domestic water demand behaviour to an urban water model using agent based modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koutiva, Ifigeneia; Makropoulos, Christos

    2015-04-01

    The urban water system's sustainable evolution requires tools that can analyse and simulate the complete cycle including both physical and cultural environments. One of the main challenges, in this regard, is the design and development of tools that are able to simulate the society's water demand behaviour and the way policy measures affect it. The effects of these policy measures are a function of personal opinions that subsequently lead to the formation of people's attitudes. These attitudes will eventually form behaviours. This work presents the design of an ABM tool for addressing the social dimension of the urban water system. The created tool, called Urban Water Agents' Behaviour (UWAB) model, was implemented, using the NetLogo agent programming language. The main aim of the UWAB model is to capture the effects of policies and environmental pressures to water conservation behaviour of urban households. The model consists of agents representing urban households that are linked to each other creating a social network that influences the water conservation behaviour of its members. Household agents are influenced as well by policies and environmental pressures, such as drought. The UWAB model simulates behaviour resulting in the evolution of water conservation within an urban population. The final outcome of the model is the evolution of the distribution of different conservation levels (no, low, high) to the selected urban population. In addition, UWAB is implemented in combination with an existing urban water management simulation tool, the Urban Water Optioneering Tool (UWOT) in order to create a modelling platform aiming to facilitate an adaptive approach of water resources management. For the purposes of this proposed modelling platform, UWOT is used in a twofold manner: (1) to simulate domestic water demand evolution and (2) to simulate the response of the water system to the domestic water demand evolution. The main advantage of the UWAB - UWOT model

  17. A Computable OLG Model for Gender and Growth Policy Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Pierre-Richard Agénor

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops a computable Overlapping Generations (OLG) model for gender and growth policy analysis. The model accounts for human and physical capital accumulation (both public and private), intra- and inter-generational health persistence, fertility choices, and women's time allocation between market work, child rearing, and home production. Bargaining between spouses and gender bias, in the form of discrimination in the work place and mothers' time allocation between daughters and so...

  18. Generating WS-SecurityPolicy documents via security model transformation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Meiko

    2009-01-01

    When SOA-based business processes are to be enhanced with security properties, the model-driven business process development approach enables an easier and more reliable security definition compared to manually crafting the security realizations afterwards. In this paper, we outline an appropriate...... security model definition and transformation approach, targeting the WS-SecurityPolicy and WS-BPEL specifications, in order to enable a Web-Service-based secure business process development....

  19. Replenishment policy for an inventory model under inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Vikramjeet; Saxena, Seema; Singh, Pushpinder; Mishra, Nitin Kumar

    2017-07-01

    The purpose of replenishment is to keep the flow of inventory in the system. To determine an optimal replenishment policy is a great challenge in developing an inventory model. Inflation is defined as the rate at which the prices of goods and services are rising over a time period. The cost parameters are affected by the rate of inflation. High rate of inflation affects the organizations financial conditions. Based on the above backdrop the present paper proposes the retailers replenishment policy for deteriorating items with different cycle lengths under inflation. The shortages are partially backlogged. At last numerical examples validate the results.

  20. Advancing LGBT Elder Policy and Support Services: The Massachusetts Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krinsky, Lisa; Cahill, Sean R

    2017-12-01

    The Massachusetts-based LGBT Aging Project has trained elder service providers in affirming and culturally competent care for LGBT older adults, supported development of LGBT-friendly meal programs, and advanced LGBT equality under aging policy. Working across sectors, this innovative model launched the country's first statewide Legislative Commission on Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Aging. Advocates are working with policymakers to implement key recommendations, including cultural competency training and data collection in statewide networks of elder services. The LGBT Aging Project's success provides a template for improving services and policy for LGBT older adults throughout the country.

  1. Biomechanics trends in modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Ogden, Ray

    2017-01-01

    The book presents a state-of-the-art overview of biomechanical and mechanobiological modeling and simulation of soft biological tissues. Seven well-known scientists working in that particular field discuss topics such as biomolecules, networks and cells as well as failure, multi-scale, agent-based, bio-chemo-mechanical and finite element models appropriate for computational analysis. Applications include arteries, the heart, vascular stents and valve implants as well as adipose, brain, collagenous and engineered tissues. The mechanics of the whole cell and sub-cellular components as well as the extracellular matrix structure and mechanotransduction are described. In particular, the formation and remodeling of stress fibers, cytoskeletal contractility, cell adhesion and the mechanical regulation of fibroblast migration in healing myocardial infarcts are discussed. The essential ingredients of continuum mechanics are provided. Constitutive models of fiber-reinforced materials with an emphasis on arterial walls ...

  2. Simulations, evaluations and models. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brehmer, B.; Leplat, J.

    1992-01-01

    Papers presented at the Fourth MOHAWC (Models of Human Activities in Work Context) workshop. The general theme was simulations, evaluations and models. The emphasis was on time in relation to the modelling of human activities in modern, high tech. work. Such work often requires people to control dynamic systems, and the behaviour and misbehaviour of these systems in time is a principle focus of work in, for example, a modern process plant. The papers report on microworlds and on their innovative uses, both in the form of experiments and in the form of a new form of use, that of testing a program which performs diagnostic reasoning. They present new aspects on the problem of time in process control, showing the importance of considering the time scales of dynamic tasks, both in individual decision making and in distributed decision making, and in providing new formalisms, both for the representation of time and for reasoning involving time in diagnosis. (AB)

  3. Traffic flow dynamics data, models and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Treiber, Martin

    2013-01-01

    This textbook provides a comprehensive and instructive coverage of vehicular traffic flow dynamics and modeling. It makes this fascinating interdisciplinary topic, which to date was only documented in parts by specialized monographs, accessible to a broad readership. Numerous figures and problems with solutions help the reader to quickly understand and practice the presented concepts. This book is targeted at students of physics and traffic engineering and, more generally, also at students and professionals in computer science, mathematics, and interdisciplinary topics. It also offers material for project work in programming and simulation at college and university level. The main part, after presenting different categories of traffic data, is devoted to a mathematical description of the dynamics of traffic flow, covering macroscopic models which describe traffic in terms of density, as well as microscopic many-particle models in which each particle corresponds to a vehicle and its driver. Focus chapters on ...

  4. Modelling and Simulation for Major Incidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleonora Pacciani

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, there has been a rise in Major Incidents with big impact on the citizens health and the society. Without the possibility of conducting live experiments when it comes to physical and/or toxic trauma, only an accurate in silico reconstruction allows us to identify organizational solutions with the best possible chance of success, in correlation with the limitations on available resources (e.g. medical team, first responders, treatments, transports, and hospitals availability and with the variability of the characteristic of event (e.g. type of incident, severity of the event and type of lesions. Utilizing modelling and simulation techniques, a simplified mathematical model of physiological evolution for patients involved in physical and toxic trauma incident scenarios has been developed and implemented. The model formalizes the dynamics, operating standards and practices of medical response and the main emergency service in the chain of emergency management during a Major Incident.

  5. Qualitative simulation in formal process modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sivertsen, Elin R.

    1999-01-01

    In relation to several different research activities at the OECD Halden Reactor Project, the usefulness of formal process models has been identified. Being represented in some appropriate representation language, the purpose of these models is to model process plants and plant automatics in a unified way to allow verification and computer aided design of control strategies. The present report discusses qualitative simulation and the tool QSIM as one approach to formal process models. In particular, the report aims at investigating how recent improvements of the tool facilitate the use of the approach in areas like process system analysis, procedure verification, and control software safety analysis. An important long term goal is to provide a basis for using qualitative reasoning in combination with other techniques to facilitate the treatment of embedded programmable systems in Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA). This is motivated from the potential of such a combination in safety analysis based on models comprising both software, hardware, and operator. It is anticipated that the research results from this activity will benefit V and V in a wide variety of applications where formal process models can be utilized. Examples are operator procedures, intelligent decision support systems, and common model repositories (author) (ml)

  6. Heinrich events modeled in transient glacial simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziemen, Florian; Kapsch, Marie; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

    2017-04-01

    Heinrich events are among the most prominent events of climate variability recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet — climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under debate, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We address open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability. The framework consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations were performed fully coupled and with transient orbital and greenhouse gas forcing. They span from several millennia before the last glacial maximum into the deglaciation. To make these long simulations feasible, the atmosphere is accelerated by a factor of 10 relative to the other model components using a periodical-synchronous coupling technique. To disentangle effects of the Heinrich events and the deglaciation, we focus on the events occurring before the deglaciation. The modeled Heinrich events show a peak ice discharge of about 0.05 Sv and raise the sea level by 2.3 m on average. The resulting surface water freshening reduces the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and ocean heat release. The reduction in ocean heat release causes a sub-surface warming and decreases the air temperature and precipitation regionally and downstream into Eurasia. The surface elevation decrease of the ice sheet enhances moisture transport onto the ice sheet and thus increases precipitation over the Hudson Bay area, thereby accelerating the recovery after an event.

  7. Sources of change in foreign policy. A review of foreign policy models for developing countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alba E. Gámez

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available The study of what could be called the reorientation of State foreign policy is not a new phenomenon. Changes in alliances, economic partners and attitudes in the face of international issues have been reflected in myriad texts. Nevertheless, few theoretical frameworksdeal with this issue as an area of study in and of itself. Overcoming this situation would contribute to identifying and comparing the changes in attitude and discourse in the relations between countries, especially in the case of developing countries, and, by extension, thesources of these changes. This article reviews the different models for the analysis of foreign policy, using the conceptual framework of Hermann (1990 as its starting point. This framework suggests the existence of four graded levels of change which allow for studying forms of change which are subtle but important in foreign policy; it also offers a reasoned analysis for testing the relative importance of their sources. This conceptual framework can be situated in the traditional division of levels of analysis: the characteristics of the leader, bureaucratic proposer, internal adjustment, and external impact; and, while it does not provide a conclusive answer, it may be a useful tool in clarifying the ways of using empirical evidence and establishing the relative importance of the sources of change in foreign policy orientation.

  8. What model of science? Towards a sociologically oriented science policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorota Jedlikowska

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the contemporary global world the various models of making and distributing science are cultivated. The particular model of institutionalized science can significantly determine the quality of working both as a scientist and as a student. Research upon science environment in the meaning of investigation the framework of science influences for example the system of communication between different actors engaged in science, good practices, possibilities offered by particular context of science and facilities of acquiring the scientific knowledge etc. It this view the presented paper finds its justification directing analysis towards the quality of making science. Hence the paradigm of sociological science policy is strongly needed. The paper is going to reconstruct the key models which recognize contexts of making science and its numerous dimensions. The research is based on the set of literature founded through the digital key words searching process. The chosen literature recalls the most significant research based on science policy. Consequently the described models tend towards the most globalized and open models of making science to show the path of required changes into still founded coercive science structures mostly institutionalized by long-lasting tradition. The final conclusion states that more concrete steps in reformulating the science policy are required to obtain the desirable model of open science and at the same time to develop the high standing scientific priorities.

  9. Dynamic and adaptive policy models for coalition operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Dinesh; Calo, Seraphin; Chakraborty, Supriyo; Bertino, Elisa; Williams, Chris; Tucker, Jeremy; Rivera, Brian; de Mel, Geeth R.

    2017-05-01

    It is envisioned that the success of future military operations depends on the better integration, organizationally and operationally, among allies, coalition members, inter-agency partners, and so forth. However, this leads to a challenging and complex environment where the heterogeneity and dynamism in the operating environment intertwines with the evolving situational factors that affect the decision-making life cycle of the war fighter. Therefore, the users in such environments need secure, accessible, and resilient information infrastructures where policy-based mechanisms adopt the behaviours of the systems to meet end user goals. By specifying and enforcing a policy based model and framework for operations and security which accommodates heterogeneous coalitions, high levels of agility can be enabled to allow rapid assembly and restructuring of system and information resources. However, current prevalent policy models (e.g., rule based event-condition-action model and its variants) are not sufficient to deal with the highly dynamic and plausibly non-deterministic nature of these environments. Therefore, to address the above challenges, in this paper, we present a new approach for policies which enables managed systems to take more autonomic decisions regarding their operations.

  10. Simulation Model of Mobile Detection Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edmunds, T.; Faissol, D.; Yao, Y.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we consider a mobile source that we attempt to detect with man-portable, vehicle-mounted or boat-mounted radiation detectors. The source is assumed to transit an area populated with these mobile detectors, and the objective is to detect the source before it reaches a perimeter. We describe a simulation model developed to estimate the probability that one of the mobile detectors will come in to close proximity of the moving source and detect it. We illustrate with a maritime simulation example. Our simulation takes place in a 10 km by 5 km rectangular bay patrolled by boats equipped with 2-inch x 4-inch x 16-inch NaI detectors. Boats to be inspected enter the bay and randomly proceed to one of seven harbors on the shore. A source-bearing boat enters the mouth of the bay and proceeds to a pier on the opposite side. We wish to determine the probability that the source is detected and its range from target when detected. Patrol boats select the nearest in-bound boat for inspection and initiate an intercept course. Once within an operational range for the detection system, a detection algorithm is started. If the patrol boat confirms the source is not present, it selects the next nearest boat for inspection. Each run of the simulation ends either when a patrol successfully detects a source or when the source reaches its target. Several statistical detection algorithms have been implemented in the simulation model. First, a simple k-sigma algorithm, which alarms with the counts in a time window exceeds the mean background plus k times the standard deviation of background, is available to the user. The time window used is optimized with respect to the signal-to-background ratio for that range and relative speed. Second, a sequential probability ratio test [Wald 1947] is available, and configured in this simulation with a target false positive probability of 0.001 and false negative probability of 0.1. This test is utilized when the mobile detector maintains

  11. Simulation of arc models with the block modelling method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thomas, R.; Lahaye, D.J.P.; Vuik, C.; Van der Sluis, L.

    2015-01-01

    Simulation of current interruption is currently performed with non-ideal switching devices for large power systems. Nevertheless, for small networks, non-ideal switching devices can be substituted by arc models. However, this substitution has a negative impact on the computation time. At the same

  12. Modeling lignin polymerization. Part 1: simulation model of dehydrogenation polymers.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F.R.D. van Parijs (Frederik); K. Morreel; J. Ralph; W. Boerjan; R.M.H. Merks (Roeland)

    2010-01-01

    htmlabstractLignin is a heteropolymer that is thought to form in the cell wall by combinatorial radical coupling of monolignols. Here, we present a simulation model of in vitro lignin polymerization, based on the combinatorial coupling theory, which allows us to predict the reaction conditions

  13. An Agent-Based Monetary Production Simulation Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Charlotte

    2006-01-01

    An Agent-Based Simulation Model Programmed in Objective Borland Pascal. Program and source code is downloadable......An Agent-Based Simulation Model Programmed in Objective Borland Pascal. Program and source code is downloadable...

  14. Software to Enable Modeling & Simulation as a Service

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop a Modeling and Simulation as a Service (M&SaaS) software service infrastructure to enable most modeling and simulation (M&S) activities to be...

  15. Modelling and simulation of railway cable systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teichelmann, G.; Schaub, M.; Simeon, B. [Technische Univ. Muenchen, Garching (Germany). Zentrum Mathematik M2

    2005-12-15

    Mathematical models and numerical methods for the computation of both static equilibria and dynamic oscillations of railroad catenaries are derived and analyzed. These cable systems form a complex network of string and beam elements and lead to coupled partial differential equations in space and time where constraints and corresponding Lagrange multipliers express the interaction between carrier, contact wire, and pantograph head. For computing static equilibria, three different algorithms are presented and compared, while the dynamic case is treated by a finite element method in space, combined with stabilized time integration of the resulting differential algebraic system. Simulation examples based on reference data from industry illustrate the potential of such computational tools. (orig.)

  16. Petroleum reservoir data for testing simulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lloyd, J.M.; Harrison, W.

    1980-09-01

    This report consists of reservoir pressure and production data for 25 petroleum reservoirs. Included are 5 data sets for single-phase (liquid) reservoirs, 1 data set for a single-phase (liquid) reservoir with pressure maintenance, 13 data sets for two-phase (liquid/gas) reservoirs and 6 for two-phase reservoirs with pressure maintenance. Also given are ancillary data for each reservoir that could be of value in the development and validation of simulation models. A bibliography is included that lists the publications from which the data were obtained.

  17. A Model of Climate Policy Using Board Game Mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Castronova

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a case study of how a board game can be modified to generate a serious game. We argue that board games are an interesting medium for serious games, especially when the goal is to teach players about particularly complex systems. In that case, the transparency of a board game makes it possible for players to “see the whole boards” – to see all of the various moving parts at work. That transparency also makes it very easy to modify board games. To demonstrate these claims, we present a modification to the board game CO2 that accurately models different policy options with regard to global warming. We show how a few major changes to the original game’s point systems, as well as removal of certain extraneous features, can significantly improve the game, adding an instructional value. The game allows players to experiment with several policy options, including carbon taxes, carbon emissions permit sales, and clean energy research support, and lets players see how these policies interact. We discuss ways that teachers, advocates, journalists, and others can the Climate Policy mod to more easily explain the incredibly complex interactions of power markets, carbon dioxide emissions, and public policy.

  18. Simulation model for port shunting yards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusca, A.; Popa, M.; Rosca, E.; Rosca, M.; Dragu, V.; Rusca, F.

    2016-08-01

    Sea ports are important nodes in the supply chain, joining two high capacity transport modes: rail and maritime transport. The huge cargo flows transiting port requires high capacity construction and installation such as berths, large capacity cranes, respectively shunting yards. However, the port shunting yards specificity raises several problems such as: limited access since these are terminus stations for rail network, the in-output of large transit flows of cargo relatively to the scarcity of the departure/arrival of a ship, as well as limited land availability for implementing solutions to serve these flows. It is necessary to identify technological solutions that lead to an answer to these problems. The paper proposed a simulation model developed with ARENA computer simulation software suitable for shunting yards which serve sea ports with access to the rail network. Are investigates the principal aspects of shunting yards and adequate measures to increase their transit capacity. The operation capacity for shunting yards sub-system is assessed taking in consideration the required operating standards and the measure of performance (e.g. waiting time for freight wagons, number of railway line in station, storage area, etc.) of the railway station are computed. The conclusion and results, drawn from simulation, help transports and logistics specialists to test the proposals for improving the port management.

  19. Modeling VOC transport in simulated waste drums

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liekhus, K.J.; Gresham, G.L.; Peterson, E.S.; Rae, C.; Hotz, N.J.; Connolly, M.J.

    1993-06-01

    A volatile organic compound (VOC) transport model has been developed to describe unsteady-state VOC permeation and diffusion within a waste drum. Model equations account for three primary mechanisms for VOC transport from a void volume within the drum. These mechanisms are VOC permeation across a polymer boundary, VOC diffusion across an opening in a volume boundary, and VOC solubilization in a polymer boundary. A series of lab-scale experiments was performed in which the VOC concentration was measured in simulated waste drums under different conditions. A lab-scale simulated waste drum consisted of a sized-down 55-gal metal drum containing a modified rigid polyethylene drum liner. Four polyethylene bags were sealed inside a large polyethylene bag, supported by a wire cage, and placed inside the drum liner. The small bags were filled with VOC-air gas mixture and the VOC concentration was measured throughout the drum over a period of time. Test variables included the type of VOC-air gas mixtures introduced into the small bags, the small bag closure type, and the presence or absence of a variable external heat source. Model results were calculated for those trials where the VOC permeability had been measured. Permeabilities for five VOCs [methylene chloride, 1,1,2-trichloro-1,2,2-trifluoroethane (Freon-113), 1,1,1-trichloroethane, carbon tetrachloride, and trichloroethylene] were measured across a polyethylene bag. Comparison of model and experimental results of VOC concentration as a function of time indicate that model accurately accounts for significant VOC transport mechanisms in a lab-scale waste drum

  20. Energy modelling platforms for policy and strategy support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dyner, I.

    2000-01-01

    The energy field has been dominated by 'hard' modelling approaches by researchers from engineering and economics discipline. The recent trend towards a more liberalised environment moves away from central planning to market-based resource allocation, leading to the creation and use of strategic tools, with much 'softer' specifications, in the 'system-thinking' tradition. This paper presents the use of system dynamics in a generalised way, to provide a platform for integrated energy analysis. Issues of modularity and policy evolution are important in the design of the modelling platform to facilitate its use, and reuse. Hence the concepts of a platform, rather than a model, has to be implemented in a coherent way if it is to provide sustained value for ongoing support to both government policy and corporate strategy. (author)

  1. Bridging Research, Practice, and Policy: The "Evidence Academy" Conference Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohweder, Catherine L; Laping, Jane L; Diehl, Sandra J; Moore, Alexis A; Isler, Malika Roman; Scott, Jennifer Elissa; Enga, Zoe Kaori; Black, Molly C; Dave, Gaurav; Corbie-Smith, Giselle; Melvin, Cathy L

    2016-01-01

    Innovative models to facilitate more rapid uptake of research findings into practice are urgently needed. Community members who engage in research can accelerate this process by acting as adoption agents. We implemented an Evidence Academy conference model bringing together researchers, health care professionals, advocates, and policy makers across North Carolina to discuss high-impact, life-saving study results. The overall goal is to develop dissemination and implementation strategies for translating evidence into practice and policy. Each 1-day, single-theme, regional meeting focuses on a leading community-identified health priority. The model capitalizes on the power of diverse local networks to encourage broad, common awareness of new research findings. Furthermore, it emphasizes critical reflection and active group discussion on how to incorporate new evidence within and across organizations, health care systems, and communities. During the concluding session, participants are asked to articulate action plans relevant to their individual interests, work setting, or area of expertise.

  2. Mission Assurance Modeling and Simulation: A Cyber Security Roadmap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gendron, Gerald; Roberts, David; Poole, Donold; Aquino, Anna

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a cyber security modeling and simulation roadmap to enhance mission assurance governance and establish risk reduction processes within constrained budgets. The term mission assurance stems from risk management work by Carnegie Mellon's Software Engineering Institute in the late 19905. By 2010, the Defense Information Systems Agency revised its cyber strategy and established the Program Executive Officer-Mission Assurance. This highlights a shift from simply protecting data to balancing risk and begins a necessary dialogue to establish a cyber security roadmap. The Military Operations Research Society has recommended a cyber community of practice, recognizing there are too few professionals having both cyber and analytic experience. The authors characterize the limited body of knowledge in this symbiotic relationship. This paper identifies operational and research requirements for mission assurance M&S supporting defense and homeland security. M&S techniques are needed for enterprise oversight of cyber investments, test and evaluation, policy, training, and analysis.

  3. 3D Core Model for simulation of nuclear power plants: Simulation requirements, model features, and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zerbino, H.

    1999-01-01

    In 1994-1996, Thomson Training and Simulation (TT and S) earned out the D50 Project, which involved the design and construction of optimized replica simulators for one Dutch and three German Nuclear Power Plants. It was recognized early on that the faithful reproduction of the Siemens reactor control and protection systems would impose extremely stringent demands on the simulation models, particularly the Core physics and the RCS thermohydraulics. The quality of the models, and their thorough validation, were thus essential. The present paper describes the main features of the fully 3D Core model implemented by TT and S, and its extensive validation campaign, which was defined in extremely positive collaboration with the Customer and the Core Data suppliers. (author)

  4. Computational Modeling and Simulation of Developmental ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developmental and Reproductive Toxicity (DART) testing is important for assessing the potential consequences of drug and chemical exposure on human health and well-being. Complexity of pregnancy and the reproductive cycle makes DART testing challenging and costly for traditional (animal-based) methods. A compendium of in vitro data from ToxCast/Tox21 high-throughput screening (HTS) programs is available for predictive toxicology. ‘Predictive DART’ will require an integrative strategy that mobilizes HTS data into in silico models that capture the relevant embryology. This lecture addresses progress on EPA's 'virtual embryo'. The question of how tissues and organs are shaped during development is crucial for understanding (and predicting) human birth defects. While ToxCast HTS data may predict developmental toxicity with reasonable accuracy, mechanistic models are still necessary to capture the relevant biology. Subtle microscopic changes induced chemically may amplify to an adverse outcome but coarse changes may override lesion propagation in any complex adaptive system. Modeling system dynamics in a developing tissue is a multiscale problem that challenges our ability to predict toxicity from in vitro profiling data (ToxCast/Tox21). (DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this presentation are those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the US EPA). This was an invited seminar presentation to the National Institute for Public H

  5. Molecular models and simulations of layered materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalinichev, Andrey G.; Cygan, Randall Timothy; Heinz, Hendrik; Greathouse, Jeffery A.

    2008-01-01

    The micro- to nano-sized nature of layered materials, particularly characteristic of naturally occurring clay minerals, limits our ability to fully interrogate their atomic dispositions and crystal structures. The low symmetry, multicomponent compositions, defects, and disorder phenomena of clays and related phases necessitate the use of molecular models and modern simulation methods. Computational chemistry tools based on classical force fields and quantum-chemical methods of electronic structure calculations provide a practical approach to evaluate structure and dynamics of the materials on an atomic scale. Combined with classical energy minimization, molecular dynamics, and Monte Carlo techniques, quantum methods provide accurate models of layered materials such as clay minerals, layered double hydroxides, and clay-polymer nanocomposites

  6. VISION: Verifiable Fuel Cycle Simulation Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacob J. Jacobson; Abdellatif M. Yacout; Gretchen E. Matthern; Steven J. Piet; David E. Shropshire

    2009-04-01

    The nuclear fuel cycle is a very complex system that includes considerable dynamic complexity as well as detail complexity. In the nuclear power realm, there are experts and considerable research and development in nuclear fuel development, separations technology, reactor physics and waste management. What is lacking is an overall understanding of the entire nuclear fuel cycle and how the deployment of new fuel cycle technologies affects the overall performance of the fuel cycle. The Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative’s systems analysis group is developing a dynamic simulation model, VISION, to capture the relationships, timing and delays in and among the fuel cycle components to help develop an understanding of how the overall fuel cycle works and can transition as technologies are changed. This paper is an overview of the philosophy and development strategy behind VISION. The paper includes some descriptions of the model and some examples of how to use VISION.

  7. Modeling and visual simulation of Microalgae photobioreactor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Ming; Hou, Dapeng; Hu, Dawei

    Microalgae is a kind of nutritious and high photosynthetic efficiency autotrophic plant, which is widely distributed in the land and the sea. It can be extensively used in medicine, food, aerospace, biotechnology, environmental protection and other fields. Photobioreactor which is important equipment is mainly used to cultivate massive and high-density microalgae. In this paper, based on the mathematical model of microalgae which grew under different light intensity, three-dimensional visualization model was built and implemented in 3ds max, Virtools and some other three dimensional software. Microalgae is photosynthetic organism, it can efficiently produce oxygen and absorb carbon dioxide. The goal of the visual simulation is to display its change and impacting on oxygen and carbon dioxide intuitively. In this paper, different temperatures and light intensities were selected to control the photobioreactor, and dynamic change of microalgal biomass, Oxygen and carbon dioxide was observed with the aim of providing visualization support for microalgal and photobioreactor research.

  8. A rainfall simulation model for agricultural development in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sayedur Rahman

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available A rainfall simulation model based on a first-order Markov chain has been developed to simulate the annual variation in rainfall amount that is observed in Bangladesh. The model has been tested in the Barind Tract of Bangladesh. Few significant differences were found between the actual and simulated seasonal, annual and average monthly. The distribution of number of success is asymptotic normal distribution. When actual and simulated daily rainfall data were used to drive a crop simulation model, there was no significant difference of rice yield response. The results suggest that the rainfall simulation model perform adequately for many applications.

  9. Modeling lift operations with SASmacr Simulation Studio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kar, Leow Soo

    2016-10-01

    Lifts or elevators are an essential part of multistorey buildings which provide vertical transportation for its occupants. In large and high-rise apartment buildings, its occupants are permanent, while in buildings, like hospitals or office blocks, the occupants are temporary or users of the buildings. They come in to work or to visit, and thus, the population of such buildings are much higher than those in residential apartments. It is common these days that large office blocks or hospitals have at least 8 to 10 lifts serving its population. In order to optimize the level of service performance, different transportation schemes are devised to control the lift operations. For example, one lift may be assigned to solely service the even floors and another solely for the odd floors, etc. In this paper, a basic lift system is modelled using SAS Simulation Studio to study the effect of factors such as the number of floors, capacity of the lift car, arrival rate and exit rate of passengers at each floor, peak and off peak periods on the system performance. The simulation is applied to a real lift operation in Sunway College's North Building to validate the model.

  10. Plasma simulation studies using multilevel physics models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, W.; Belova, E.V.; Fu, G.Y.

    2000-01-01

    The question of how to proceed toward ever more realistic plasma simulation studies using ever increasing computing power is addressed. The answer presented here is the M3D (Multilevel 3D) project, which has developed a code package with a hierarchy of physics levels that resolve increasingly complete subsets of phase-spaces and are thus increasingly more realistic. The rationale for the multilevel physics models is given. Each physics level is described and examples of its application are given. The existing physics levels are fluid models (3D configuration space), namely magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) and two-fluids; and hybrid models, namely gyrokinetic-energetic-particle/MHD (5D energetic particle phase-space), gyrokinetic-particle-ion/fluid-electron (5D ion phase-space), and full-kinetic-particle-ion/fluid-electron level (6D ion phase-space). Resolving electron phase-space (5D or 6D) remains a future project. Phase-space-fluid models are not used in favor of delta f particle models. A practical and accurate nonlinear fluid closure for noncollisional plasmas seems not likely in the near future

  11. Plasma simulation studies using multilevel physics models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, W.; Belova, E.V.; Fu, G.Y. [and others

    2000-01-19

    The question of how to proceed toward ever more realistic plasma simulation studies using ever increasing computing power is addressed. The answer presented here is the M3D (Multilevel 3D) project, which has developed a code package with a hierarchy of physics levels that resolve increasingly complete subsets of phase-spaces and are thus increasingly more realistic. The rationale for the multilevel physics models is given. Each physics level is described and examples of its application are given. The existing physics levels are fluid models (3D configuration space), namely magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) and two-fluids; and hybrid models, namely gyrokinetic-energetic-particle/MHD (5D energetic particle phase-space), gyrokinetic-particle-ion/fluid-electron (5D ion phase-space), and full-kinetic-particle-ion/fluid-electron level (6D ion phase-space). Resolving electron phase-space (5D or 6D) remains a future project. Phase-space-fluid models are not used in favor of delta f particle models. A practical and accurate nonlinear fluid closure for noncollisional plasmas seems not likely in the near future.

  12. Exploring policy options for a transition to sustainable heating system diffusion using an agent-based simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maya Sopha, Bertha; Kloeckner, Christian A.; Hertwich, Edgar G.

    2011-01-01

    Change in home heating to more efficient and renewable systems is important for a sound climate policy. The present paper aims to identify potential interventions for the uptake of wood-pellet heating in Norway using an agent-based model (ABM). The theoretically based, empirically founded, agent-based simulation demonstrates that financial support, i.e., a stable wood-pellet price, and technical development, i.e., functional reliability improvement, have to be established all at the same time for a successful wood-pellet market to start. Furthermore, a soft intervention through persuading households to use environmentally beneficial heating system is not a promising driver for wood-pellet diffusion. Limitations and suggestions for future work are also discussed. - Research highlights: → The theoretically based, empirically founded, agent-based simulation is applied to investigate potential policy options toward diffusion of wood-pellet heating in Norway. → Relative advantages are necessary for wood-pellet heating to be adopted, consistent with Diffusion of Innovation theory (). → Simultaneous development is also required for further uptake of wood-pellet heating, supporting the existing empirical hypothesis by . → Persuading households to use environmentally friendly heating system is not a promising driver, in line with empirical finding of , who investigated psychological factors underlying the adoption of wood-pellet heating.

  13. Actual interaction effects between policy measures for energy efficiency-A qualitative matrix method and quantitative simulation results for households

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boonekamp, Piet G.M.

    2006-01-01

    Starting from the conditions for a successful implementation of saving options, a general framework was developed to investigate possible interaction effects in sets of energy policy measures. Interaction regards the influence of one measure on the energy saving effect of another measure. The method delivers a matrix for all combinations of measures, with each cell containing qualitative information on the strength and type of interaction: overlapping, reinforcing, or independent of each other. Results are presented for the set of policy measures on household energy efficiency in the Netherlands for 1990-2003. The second part regards a quantitative analysis of the interaction effects between three major measures: a regulatory energy tax, investment subsidies and regulation of gas use for space heating. Using a detailed bottom-up model, household energy use in the period 1990-2000 was simulated with and without these measures. The results indicate that combinations of two or three policy measures yield 13-30% less effect than the sum of the effects of the separate measures

  14. Leaning against the Wind Policies on Vietnam’s Economy with DSGE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phuc Huynh

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The global financial crisis of 2007–2008 had a negative impact on many countries, including Vietnam. Many policies have been applied to stabilize the macro-economic indicators. However, most of them are based on old qualitative models, which do not help policy makers understand deeply how each one affects the economy. In this paper, we investigate a quantitative macro-economic approach and use leaning against the wind policies with the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (DSGE to find a better way to understand how policies stabilize the Vietnamese economy. Based on the framework of Gerali et al., we calibrate the hyper-parameter for Vietnam financial data and do the comparison between the standard Taylor rule and the cases in which we add asset price and credit elements. The results show that the credit-augmented Taylor rule is better than the asset-price-augmented one under the technology shock and contrary to the cost-push shock. Moreover, the extended simulation result shows that combining both asset-price and credit rules on the model is not useful for Vietnam’s economy in both types of shock.

  15. Modeling and numerical simulations of the influenced Sznajd model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karan, Farshad Salimi Naneh; Srinivasan, Aravinda Ramakrishnan; Chakraborty, Subhadeep

    2017-08-01

    This paper investigates the effects of independent nonconformists or influencers on the behavioral dynamic of a population of agents interacting with each other based on the Sznajd model. The system is modeled on a complete graph using the master equation. The acquired equation has been numerically solved. Accuracy of the mathematical model and its corresponding assumptions have been validated by numerical simulations. Regions of initial magnetization have been found from where the system converges to one of two unique steady-state PDFs, depending on the distribution of influencers. The scaling property and entropy of the stationary system in presence of varying level of influence have been presented and discussed.

  16. Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool for meteorological and air quality simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool compares model predictions to observed data from various meteorological and air quality observation networks to help evaluate meteorological and air quality simulations.

  17. Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and objective With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project ‘European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast’ – http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Methods A model was built to assess policy scenarios’ impact on the pharmaceutical budgets of seven member states of the EU, namely France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. The following scenarios were tested: expanding the UK policies to EU, changing time to market access, modifying generic price and penetration, shifting the distribution chain of biosimilars (retail/hospital). Results Applying the UK policy resulted in dramatic savings for Germany (10 times the base case forecast) and substantial additional savings for France and Portugal (2 and 4 times the base case forecast, respectively). Delaying time to market was found be to a very powerful tool to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Applying the EU transparency directive (6-month process for pricing and reimbursement) increased pharmaceutical expenditure for all countries (from 1.1 to 4 times the base case forecast), except in Germany (additional savings). Decreasing the price of generics and boosting the penetration rate, as well as shifting distribution of biosimilars through hospital chain were also key methods to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Change in the level of reimbursement rate to 100% in all countries led to an important increase in the pharmaceutical budget. Conclusions Forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure is a critical exercise to inform policy decision makers. The most important leverages identified by the model on pharmaceutical budget were driven by generic and biosimilar prices, penetration rate

  18. An evaluation of transport mode shift policies on transport-related physical activity through simulations based on random forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brondeel, Ruben; Kestens, Yan; Chaix, Basile

    2017-10-23

    Physical inactivity is widely recognized as one of the leading causes of mortality, and transport accounts for a large part of people's daily physical activity. This study develops a simulation approach to evaluate the impact of the Ile-de-France Urban Mobility Plan (2010-2020) on physical activity, under the hypothesis that the intended transport mode shifts are realized. Based on the Global Transport Survey (2010, n = 21,332) and on the RECORD GPS Study (2012-2013, n = 229) from the French capital region of Paris (Ile-de-France), a simulation method was designed and tested. The simulation method used accelerometer data and random forest models to predict the impact of the transport mode shifts anticipated in the Mobility Plan on transport-related moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (T-MVPA). The transport mode shifts include less private motorized trips in favor of more public transport, walking, and biking trips. The simulation model indicated a mean predicted increase of 2 min per day of T-MVPA, in case the intended transport mode shifts in the Ile-de-France Urban Mobility Plan were realized. The positive effect of the transport mode shifts on T-MVPA would, however, be larger for people with a higher level of education. This heterogeneity in the positive effect would further increase the existing inequality in transport-related physical activity by educational level. The method presented in this paper showed a significant increase in transport-related physical activity in case the intended mode shifts in the Ile-de-France Urban Mobility Plan were realized. This simulation method could be applied on other important health outcomes, such as exposure to noise or air pollution, making it a useful tool to anticipate the health impact of transport interventions or policies.

  19. Assessing the impact of policy interventions on the adoption of plug-in electric vehicles: An agent-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silvia, Chris; Krause, Rachel M.

    2016-01-01

    Heightened concern regarding climate change and energy independence has increased interest in plug-in electric vehicles as one means to address these challenges and governments at all levels have considered policy interventions to encourage their adoption. This paper develops an agent-based model that simulates the introduction of four policy scenarios aimed at promoting electric vehicle adoption in an urban community and compares them against a baseline. These scenarios include reducing vehicle purchase price via subsidies, expanding the local public charging network, increasing the number and visibility of fully battery electric vehicles (BEVs) on the roadway through government fleet purchases, and a hybrid mix of these three approaches. The results point to the effectiveness of policy options that increased awareness of BEV technology. Specifically, the hybrid policy alternative was the most successful in encouraging BEV adoption. This policy increases the visibility and familiarity of BEV technology in the community and may help counter the idea that BEVs are not a viable alternative to gasoline-powered vehicles. - Highlights: •Various policy interventions to encourage electric vehicle adoption are examined. •An agent based model is used to simulate individual adoption decisions. •Policies that increase the familiarity of electric vehicles are most effective.

  20. Comparison of performance of simulation models for floor heating

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weitzmann, Peter; Svendsen, Svend

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes the comparison of performance of simulation models for floor heating with different level of detail in the modelling process. The models are compared in an otherwise identical simulation model containing room model, walls, windows, ceiling and ventilation system. By exchanging...

  1. Tecnomatix Plant Simulation modeling and programming by means of examples

    CERN Document Server

    Bangsow, Steffen

    2015-01-01

    This book systematically introduces the development of simulation models as well as the implementation and evaluation of simulation experiments with Tecnomatix Plant Simulation. It deals with all users of Plant Simulation, who have more complex tasks to handle. It also looks for an easy entry into the program. Particular attention has been paid to introduce the simulation flow language SimTalk and its use in various areas of the simulation. The author demonstrates with over 200 examples how to combine the blocks for simulation models and how to deal with SimTalk for complex control and analys

  2. Nonlinear distortion in wireless systems modeling and simulation with Matlab

    CERN Document Server

    Gharaibeh, Khaled M

    2011-01-01

    This book covers the principles of modeling and simulation of nonlinear distortion in wireless communication systems with MATLAB simulations and techniques In this book, the author describes the principles of modeling and simulation of nonlinear distortion in single and multichannel wireless communication systems using both deterministic and stochastic signals. Models and simulation methods of nonlinear amplifiers explain in detail how to analyze and evaluate the performance of data communication links under nonlinear amplification. The book addresses the analysis of nonlinear systems

  3. Modeling urban expansion policy scenarios using an agent-based approach for Guangzhou Metropolitan Region of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangjin Tian

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Policy makers and the human decision processes of urban planning have an impact on urban expansion. The behaviors and decision modes of regional authority, real estate developer, resident, and farmer agents and their interactions can be simulated by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP method. The driving factors are regressed with urban dynamics instead of static land-use types. Agents' behaviors and decision modes have an impact on the urban dynamic pattern by adjusting parameter weights. We integrate an agent-based model (ABM with AHP to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Three policy scenarios for baseline development, rapid development, and green land protection have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Guangzhou metropolitan region. A future policy scenario analysis can help policy makers to understand the possible results. These individuals can adjust their policies and decisions according to their different objectives.

  4. Modeling human response errors in synthetic flight simulator domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ntuen, Celestine A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents a control theoretic approach to modeling human response errors (HRE) in the flight simulation domain. The human pilot is modeled as a supervisor of a highly automated system. The synthesis uses the theory of optimal control pilot modeling for integrating the pilot's observation error and the error due to the simulation model (experimental error). Methods for solving the HRE problem are suggested. Experimental verification of the models will be tested in a flight quality handling simulation.

  5. Multiple Time Series Ising Model for Financial Market Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we propose an Ising model which simulates multiple financial time series. Our model introduces the interaction which couples to spins of other systems. Simulations from our model show that time series exhibit the volatility clustering that is often observed in the real financial markets. Furthermore we also find non-zero cross correlations between the volatilities from our model. Thus our model can simulate stock markets where volatilities of stocks are mutually correlated

  6. Discharge Fee Policy Analysis: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE Model of Water Resources and Water Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guohua Fang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available To alleviate increasingly serious water pollution and shortages in developing countries, various kinds of policies have been implemented by local governments. It is vital to quantify and evaluate the performance and potential economic impacts of these policies. This study develops a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE model to simulate the regional economic and environmental effects of discharge fees. Firstly, water resources and water environment factors are separated from the input and output sources of the National Economic Production Department. Secondly, an extended Social Accounting Matrix (SAM of Jiangsu province is developed to simulate various scenarios. By changing values of the discharge fees (increased by 50%, 100% and 150%, three scenarios are simulated to examine their influence on the overall economy and each industry. The simulation results show that an increased fee will have a negative impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP. However, waste water may be effectively controlled. Also, this study demonstrates that along with the economic costs, the increase of the discharge fee will lead to the upgrading of industrial structures from a situation of heavy pollution to one of light pollution which is beneficial to the sustainable development of the economy and the protection of the environment.

  7. Modeling and Simulation Techniques for Large-Scale Communications Modeling

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Webb, Steve

    1997-01-01

    .... Tests of random number generators were also developed and applied to CECOM models. It was found that synchronization of random number strings in simulations is easy to implement and can provide significant savings for making comparative studies. If synchronization is in place, then statistical experiment design can be used to provide information on the sensitivity of the output to input parameters. The report concludes with recommendations and an implementation plan.

  8. Population health outcome models in suicide prevention policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Frances L

    2014-09-01

    Suicide is a leading cause of death in the U.S. and results in immense suffering and significant cost. Effective suicide prevention interventions could reduce this burden, but policy makers need estimates of health outcomes achieved by alternative interventions to focus implementation efforts. To illustrate the utility of health outcome models to help in achieving goals defined by the National Action Alliance for Suicide Prevention's Research Prioritization Task Force. The approach is illustrated specifically with psychotherapeutic interventions to prevent suicide reattempt in emergency department settings. A health outcome model using decision analysis with secondary data was applied to estimate suicide attempts and deaths averted from evidence-based interventions. Under optimal conditions, the model estimated that over 1 year, implementing evidence-based psychotherapeutic interventions in emergency departments could decrease the number of suicide attempts by 18,737, and if offered over 5 years, it could avert 109,306 attempts. Over 1 year, the model estimated 2,498 fewer deaths from suicide, and over 5 years, about 13,928 fewer suicide deaths. Health outcome models could aid in suicide prevention policy by helping focus implementation efforts. Further research developing more sophisticated models of the impact of suicide prevention interventions that include a more complex understanding of suicidal behavior, longer time frames, and inclusion of additional outcomes that capture the full benefits and costs of interventions would be helpful next steps. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

  9. Managing emergency department overcrowding via ambulance diversion: a discrete event simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chih-Hao; Kao, Chung-Yao; Huang, Chong-Ye

    2015-01-01

    Ambulance diversion (AD) is considered one of the possible solutions to relieve emergency department (ED) overcrowding. Study of the effectiveness of various AD strategies is prerequisite for policy-making. Our aim is to develop a tool that quantitatively evaluates the effectiveness of various AD strategies. A simulation model and a computer simulation program were developed. Three sets of simulations were executed to evaluate AD initiating criteria, patient-blocking rules, and AD intervals, respectively. The crowdedness index, the patient waiting time for service, and the percentage of adverse patients were assessed to determine the effect of various AD policies. Simulation results suggest that, in a certain setting, the best timing for implementing AD is when the crowdedness index reaches the critical value, 1.0 - an indicator that ED is operating at its maximal capacity. The strategy to divert all patients transported by ambulance is more effective than to divert either high-acuity patients only or low-acuity patients only. Given a total allowable AD duration, implementing AD multiple times with short intervals generally has better effect than having a single AD with maximal allowable duration. An input-throughput-output simulation model is proposed for simulating ED operation. Effectiveness of several AD strategies on relieving ED overcrowding was assessed via computer simulations based on this model. By appropriate parameter settings, the model can represent medical resource providers of different scales. It is also feasible to expand the simulations to evaluate the effect of AD strategies on a community basis. The results may offer insights for making effective AD policies. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  10. Modelling and Simulation of Search Engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasution, Mahyuddin K. M.

    2017-01-01

    The best tool currently used to access information is a search engine. Meanwhile, the information space has its own behaviour. Systematically, an information space needs to be familiarized with mathematics so easily we identify the characteristics associated with it. This paper reveal some characteristics of search engine based on a model of document collection, which are then estimated the impact on the feasibility of information. We reveal some of characteristics of search engine on the lemma and theorem about singleton and doubleton, then computes statistically characteristic as simulating the possibility of using search engine. In this case, Google and Yahoo. There are differences in the behaviour of both search engines, although in theory based on the concept of documents collection.

  11. Monte Carlo simulation of Markov unreliability models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, E.E.; Boehm, F.

    1984-01-01

    A Monte Carlo method is formulated for the evaluation of the unrealibility of complex systems with known component failure and repair rates. The formulation is in terms of a Markov process allowing dependences between components to be modeled and computational efficiencies to be achieved in the Monte Carlo simulation. Two variance reduction techniques, forced transition and failure biasing, are employed to increase computational efficiency of the random walk procedure. For an example problem these result in improved computational efficiency by more than three orders of magnitudes over analog Monte Carlo. The method is generalized to treat problems with distributed failure and repair rate data, and a batching technique is introduced and shown to result in substantial increases in computational efficiency for an example problem. A method for separating the variance due to the data uncertainty from that due to the finite number of random walks is presented. (orig.)

  12. Modeling and simulation technology readiness levels.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clay, Robert L.; Shneider, Max S.; Marburger, S. J.; Trucano, Timothy Guy

    2006-01-01

    This report summarizes the results of an effort to establish a framework for assigning and communicating technology readiness levels (TRLs) for the modeling and simulation (ModSim) capabilities at Sandia National Laboratories. This effort was undertaken as a special assignment for the Weapon Simulation and Computing (WSC) program office led by Art Hale, and lasted from January to September 2006. This report summarizes the results, conclusions, and recommendations, and is intended to help guide the program office in their decisions about the future direction of this work. The work was broken out into several distinct phases, starting with establishing the scope and definition of the assignment. These are characterized in a set of key assertions provided in the body of this report. Fundamentally, the assignment involved establishing an intellectual framework for TRL assignments to Sandia's modeling and simulation capabilities, including the development and testing of a process to conduct the assignments. To that end, we proposed a methodology for both assigning and understanding the TRLs, and outlined some of the restrictions that need to be placed on this process and the expected use of the result. One of the first assumptions we overturned was the notion of a ''static'' TRL--rather we concluded that problem context was essential in any TRL assignment, and that leads to dynamic results (i.e., a ModSim tool's readiness level depends on how it is used, and by whom). While we leveraged the classic TRL results from NASA, DoD, and Sandia's NW program, we came up with a substantially revised version of the TRL definitions, maintaining consistency with the classic level definitions and the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) approach. In fact, we substantially leveraged the foundation the PCMM team provided, and augmented that as needed. Given the modeling and simulation TRL definitions and our proposed assignment methodology, we

  13. Computational Modeling and Simulation of Developmental ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Standard practice for assessing developmental toxicity is the observation of apical endpoints (intrauterine death, fetal growth retardation, structural malformations) in pregnant rats/rabbits following exposure during organogenesis. EPA’s computational toxicology research program (ToxCast) generated vast in vitro cellular and molecular effects data on >1858 chemicals in >600 high-throughput screening (HTS) assays. The diversity of assays has been increased for developmental toxicity with several HTS platforms, including the devTOX-quickPredict assay from Stemina Biomarker Discovery utilizing the human embryonic stem cell line (H9). Translating these HTS data into higher order-predictions of developmental toxicity is a significant challenge. Here, we address the application of computational systems models that recapitulate the kinematics of dynamical cell signaling networks (e.g., SHH, FGF, BMP, retinoids) in a CompuCell3D.org modeling environment. Examples include angiogenesis (angiodysplasia) and dysmorphogenesis. Being numerically responsive to perturbation, these models are amenable to data integration for systems Toxicology and Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOPs). The AOP simulation outputs predict potential phenotypes based on the in vitro HTS data ToxCast. A heuristic computational intelligence framework that recapitulates the kinematics of dynamical cell signaling networks in the embryo, together with the in vitro profiling data, produce quantitative predic

  14. Anticipating the uncertain: economic modeling and climate change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Svenn

    2012-11-01

    With this thesis I wish to contribute to the understanding of how uncertainty and the anticipation of future events by economic actors affect climate policies. The thesis consists of four papers. Two papers are analytical models which explicitly consider that emissions are caused by extracting scarce fossil fuels which in the future must be replaced by clean technologies. The other two are so called numerical integrated assessment models. Such models represent the world economy, the climate system and the interactions between those two quantitatively, complementing more abstract theoretical work. Should policy makers discriminate between subsidizing renewable energy sources such as wind or solar power, and technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS)? Focusing only on the dynamic supply of fossil fuels and hence Co{sub 2}, we find here that cheaper future renewables cause extraction to speed up, lower costs of CCS may delay it. CCS hence may dampen the dynamic inefficiency caused by the absence of comprehensive climate policies today. Does it matter whether uncertainty about future damage assessment is due to scientific complexities or stems from the political process? In paper two, I find that political and scientific uncertainties have opposing effects on the incentives to investment in renewables and the extraction of fossil fuels: The prospect of scientific learning about the climate system increases investment incentives and, ceteris paribus, slows extraction down; uncertainty about future political constellations does the opposite. The optimal carbon tax under scientific uncertainty equals expected marginal damages, whereas political uncertainty demands a tax below marginal damages that decreases over time. Does uncertainty about economic growth impact optimal climate policy today? Here we are the first to consistently analyze how uncertainty about future economic growth affects optimal emission reductions and the optimal social cost of carbon. We

  15. A Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model for Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, R. W.; Hill, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    Although integrated assessments of climate change policy have frequently identified nuclear energy as a promising alternative to fossil fuels, these studies have often treated nuclear waste disposal very simply. Simple assumptions about nuclear waste are problematic because they may not be adequate to capture relevant costs and uncertainties, which could result in suboptimal policy choices. Modeling nuclear waste management costs is a cross-disciplinary, multi-scale problem that involves economic, geologic and environmental processes that operate at vastly different temporal scales. Similarly, the climate-related costs and benefits of nuclear energy are dependent on environmental sensitivity to CO2 emissions and radiation, nuclear energy's ability to offset carbon emissions, and the risk of nuclear accidents, factors which are all deeply uncertain. Alternative value systems further complicate the problem by suggesting different approaches to valuing intergenerational impacts. Effective policy assessment of nuclear energy requires an integrated approach to modeling nuclear waste management that (1) bridges disciplinary and temporal gaps, (2) supports an iterative, adaptive process that responds to evolving understandings of uncertainties, and (3) supports a broad range of value systems. This work develops the Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model (NWMCM). NWMCM provides a flexible framework for evaluating the cost of nuclear waste management across a range of technology pathways and value systems. We illustrate how NWMCM can support policy analysis by estimating how different nuclear waste disposal scenarios developed using the NWMCM framework affect the results of a recent integrated assessment study of alternative energy futures and their effects on the cost of achieving carbon abatement targets. Results suggest that the optimism reflected in previous works is fragile: Plausible nuclear waste management costs and discount rates appropriate for intergenerational cost

  16. Using Computational Simulations to Confront Students' Mental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, R.; Carvalho, P. Simeão

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we show an example of how to use a computational simulation to obtain visual feedback for students' mental models, and compare their predictions with the simulated system's behaviour. Additionally, we use the computational simulation to incrementally modify the students' mental models in order to accommodate new data,…

  17. On Regional Modeling to Support Air Quality Policies (book chapter)

    Science.gov (United States)

    We examine the use of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model in simulating the changes in the extreme values of air quality that are of interest to the regulatory agencies. Year-to-year changes in ozone air quality are attributable to variations in the prevailing meteo...

  18. A computer simulation model for the practical planning of cervical cancer screening programmes.

    OpenAIRE

    Parkin, D. M.

    1985-01-01

    There is ample evidence of the efficacy of cytological screening in the prevention of cervical cancer but disagreement on the form which screening programmes should take. Simulation models have been used as a convenient and rapid method of exploring the outcome of different screening policies and of demonstrating the importance and interrelationships of the variables concerned. However, most such models are either too abstract or too simplistic to be of practical value in planning screening p...

  19. MODELING MONETARY POLICY RULES IN THE MENACOUNTRIES: ISSUES AND EVIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamad Husam Helmi

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper estimates the monetary policy reaction function for two sets of MENAcountries: The inflation target countries, (Turkeyand Israel and the exchange ratetarget countries, (Jordan and Morocco. We motivateour empirical analysis byanalyzing a simple Taylor rule. This model looks atthe effects of inflation andoutput on setting the interest rate by the centralbank. Furthermore, we extendedour model by adding the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate using similarmodel used by Clarida et al (1998 with using GMM estimator.Findings of this study yield some interesting results,all the central banks in thesample uses interest rate smoothing in managing their monetary policy. Inaddition, The Central bank in Turkey, Israel and Morocco focuses on achievinglow level of inflation. On the other hand, the Monetary Authority in Jordan caresabout stabilizing the output gap. Estimating the extended Taylor rule suggests thehighly significant effect of foreign interest rateon setting the interest rate inTurkey. Taken all together, the results lend support to the importance of followinga rule rather than discretionary in reducing the inflation rate and crediblemonetary policy. In addition, the simple Taylor rule can be applied on MENAcountries but it requires some modification such asadding the exchange rate andthe foreign interest rate.

  20. Spatial Planning and Policy Evaluation in an Urban Conurbation: a Regional Agent-Based Economic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luzius Stricker

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies different functions and relations between 45 agglomerated municipalities in southern Switzerland (Ticino, using a territorial agent-based model. Our research adopts a bottom-up approach to urban systems, considering the agglomeration mechanism and effects of different regional and urban policies, and simulates the individual actions of diverse agents on a real city using an Agent-based model (ABM. Simulating the individual actions of diverse agents on a real city and measuring the resulting system behaviour and outcomes over time, they effectively provide a good test bed for evaluating the impact of different policies. The database is created merging the Swiss official secondary data for one reference year (2011 with Eurostat and OECD-Regpat. The results highlight that the understanding of municipalities’ functions on the territory appears to be essential for designing a solid institutional agglomeration (or city. From a methodological point of view, we contribute to improve the application of territorial ABM. Finally, our results provide a robust base to evaluate in a dynamic way various political interventions, in order to ensure a sustainable development of the agglomeration and the surrounding territories. Applying the analyses and the model on a larger scale, including further regions and conurbations, and including more indicators and variables, to obtain a more detailed and characteristic model, will constitute a further step of the research.

  1. A Geostationary Earth Orbit Satellite Model Using Easy Java Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wee, Loo Kang; Goh, Giam Hwee

    2013-01-01

    We develop an Easy Java Simulation (EJS) model for students to visualize geostationary orbits near Earth, modelled using a Java 3D implementation of the EJS 3D library. The simplified physics model is described and simulated using a simple constant angular velocity equation. We discuss four computer model design ideas: (1) a simple and realistic…

  2. Modeling expectations in agent-based models: an application to central bank's communication and monetary policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salle, I.L.

    2015-01-01

    Expectations play a major role in macroeconomic dynamics, especially regarding the conduct of monetary policy. Yet, modeling the interplay between communication, expectations and aggregate outcomes remains a challenging task, mainly because this requires deviation from the paradigm of rational

  3. Improving firm performance in out-of-equilibrium, deregulated markets using feedback simulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gary, S.; Larsen, E.R.

    2000-01-01

    Deregulation has reshaped the utility sector in many countries around the world. Organisations in these deregulated industries must adopt new polices which guide strategic decisions, in an uncertain and unfamiliar environment, that determine the short- and long-term fate of their companies. Traditional economic equilibrium models do not adequately address the issues facing these organisations in the shift towards deregulated market competition. Equilibrium assumptions break down in the out-of-equilibrium transition to competitive markets, and therefore different underpinning assumptions must be adopted in order to guide management in these periods. Simulation models incorporating information feedback through behavioural policies fill the void left by equilibrium models and support strategic policy analysis in out-of-equilibrium markets. As an example, we present a feedback simulation model developed to examine firm and industry level performance consequences of new generation capacity investment policies in the deregulated UK electricity sector. The model explicitly captures behavioural decision polices of boundedly rational managers and avoids equilibrium assumptions. Such models are essential to help managers evaluate the performance impact of various strategic policies in environments in which disequilibrum behaviour dominates. (Author)

  4. National Environmental Policy Act guidance: A model process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angle, B.M.; Lockhart, V.A.T.; Sema, B.; Tuott, L.C.; Irving, J.S.

    1995-04-01

    The ''Model National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Process'' includes: References to regulations, guidance documents, and plans; training programs; procedures; and computer databases. Legislative Acts and reference documents from Congress, US Department of Energy, and Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company provide the bases for conducting NEPA at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) NEPA / Permitting Department, the Contractor Environmental Organization (CEO) is responsible for developing and maintaining LITCO NEPA and permitting policies, guidance, and procedures. The CEO develops procedures to conduct environmental evaluations based on NEPA, Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) regulations, and DOE guidance. This procedure includes preparation or support of environmental checklists, categorical exclusion determinations, environmental assessment determinations, environmental assessments, and environmental impact statements. In addition, the CEO uses this information to train personnel conducting environmental evaluations at the INEL. Streamlining these procedures fosters efficient use of resources, quality documents, and better decisions on proposed actions

  5. Using a simulation assistant in modeling manufacturing systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroer, Bernard J.; Tseng, Fan T.; Zhang, S. X.; Wolfsberger, John W.

    1988-01-01

    Numerous simulation languages exist for modeling discrete event processes, and are now ported to microcomputers. Graphic and animation capabilities were added to many of these languages to assist the users build models and evaluate the simulation results. With all these languages and added features, the user is still plagued with learning the simulation language. Futhermore, the time to construct and then to validate the simulation model is always greater than originally anticipated. One approach to minimize the time requirement is to use pre-defined macros that describe various common processes or operations in a system. The development of a simulation assistant for modeling discrete event manufacturing processes is presented. A simulation assistant is defined as an interactive intelligent software tool that assists the modeler in writing a simulation program by translating the modeler's symbolic description of the problem and then automatically generating the corresponding simulation code. The simulation assistant is discussed with emphasis on an overview of the simulation assistant, the elements of the assistant, and the five manufacturing simulation generators. A typical manufacturing system will be modeled using the simulation assistant and the advantages and disadvantages discussed.

  6. Integrated simulation, evaluation of the climatic risks and safety policies. Synthesis report july 2002

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hourcade, J.Ch.; LeTreut, H.

    2002-07-01

    The aim of this program is the improvement of the natural phenomena representation in the integrated models of the climate policies evaluation and to precise the methodological problems resulting from the damages treatment. It underlines the importance of the retroactions between the CO 2 emissions, the lands affectation and the carbon cycle, as the importance of the uncertainties on the climate sensitivity. (A.L.B.)

  7. Development of a Generic Didactic Model for Simulator Training

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Emmerik, M

    1997-01-01

    .... The development of such a model is motivated by the need to control training and instruction factors in research on simulator fidelity, the need to assess the benefit of training simulators, e.g...

  8. FOSSIL2 energy policy model documentation: FOSSIL2 documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1980-10-01

    This report discusses the structure, derivations, assumptions, and mathematical formulation of the FOSSIL2 model. Each major facet of the model - supply/demand interactions, industry financing, and production - has been designed to parallel closely the actual cause/effect relationships determining the behavior of the United States energy system. The data base for the FOSSIL2 program is large, as is appropriate for a system dynamics simulation model. When possible, all data were obtained from sources well known to experts in the energy field. Cost and resource estimates are based on DOE data whenever possible. This report presents the FOSSIL2 model at several levels. Volumes II and III of this report list the equations that comprise the FOSSIL2 model, along with variable definitions and a cross-reference list of the model variables. Volume III lists the model equations and a one line definition for equations, in a short, readable format.

  9. Modeling and Simulation in Healthcare Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-13

    information all have equal “weight” in the information world Computers Internet Simulation The Future Distribute & communicate Predict, plan & train...Acquire & analyze Third Leg of the Information Age Satava 2 Feb 1999 Simulation Computers Acquire Analyze Simulation Predict, Train Internet Communicate...Serendipity Inspiration FURTHER PROOF: Current evidence is inadequate for Event horizons Cognition Genome Quantum mechanics Memes Etc New

  10. Four Models of In Situ Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Musaeus, Peter; Krogh, Kristian; Paltved, Charlotte

    2014-01-01

    Introduction In situ simulation is characterized by being situated in the clinical environment as opposed to the simulation laboratory. But in situ simulation bears a family resemblance to other types of on the job training. We explore a typology of in situ simulation and suggest that there are f...... to team intervention and philosophies informing what good situated learning research is. This study generates system knowledge that might inform scenario development for in situ simulation.......Introduction In situ simulation is characterized by being situated in the clinical environment as opposed to the simulation laboratory. But in situ simulation bears a family resemblance to other types of on the job training. We explore a typology of in situ simulation and suggest...... that there are four fruitful approaches to in situ simulation: (1) In situ simulation informed by reported critical incidents and adverse events from emergency departments (ED) in which team training is about to be conducted to write scenarios. (2) In situ simulation through ethnographic studies at the ED. (3) Using...

  11. Termination of the leprosy isolation policy in the US and Japan : Science, policy changes, and the garbage can model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Hajime; Frantz, Janet E

    2005-01-01

    Background In both the US and Japan, the patient isolation policy for leprosy /Hansen's disease (HD) was preserved along with the isolation facilities, long after it had been proven to be scientifically unnecessary. This delayed policy termination caused a deprivation of civil liberties of the involuntarily confined patients, the fostering of social stigmas attached to the disease, and an inefficient use of health resources. This article seeks to elucidate the political process which hindered timely policy changes congruent with scientific advances. Methods Examination of historical materials, supplemented by personal interviews. The role that science played in the process of policy making was scrutinized with particular reference to the Garbage Can model. Results From the vantage of history, science remained instrumental in all period in the sense that it was not the primary objective for which policy change was discussed or intended, nor was it the principal driving force for policy change. When the argument arose, scientific arguments were employed to justify the patient isolation policy. However, in the early post-WWII period, issues were foregrounded and agendas were set as the inadvertent result of administrative reforms. Subsequently, scientific developments were more or less ignored due to concern about adverse policy outcomes. Finally, in the 1980s and 1990s, scientific arguments were used instrumentally to argue against isolation and for the termination of residential care. Conclusion Contrary to public expectations, health policy is not always rational and scientifically justified. In the process of policy making, the role of science can be limited and instrumental. Policy change may require the opening of policy windows, as a result of convergence of the problem, policy, and political streams, by effective exercise of leadership. Scientists and policymakers should be attentive enough to the political context of policies. PMID:15771781

  12. Termination of the leprosy isolation policy in the US and Japan : Science, policy changes, and the garbage can model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frantz Janet E

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In both the US and Japan, the patient isolation policy for leprosy /Hansen's disease (HD was preserved along with the isolation facilities, long after it had been proven to be scientifically unnecessary. This delayed policy termination caused a deprivation of civil liberties of the involuntarily confined patients, the fostering of social stigmas attached to the disease, and an inefficient use of health resources. This article seeks to elucidate the political process which hindered timely policy changes congruent with scientific advances. Methods Examination of historical materials, supplemented by personal interviews. The role that science played in the process of policy making was scrutinized with particular reference to the Garbage Can model. Results From the vantage of history, science remained instrumental in all period in the sense that it was not the primary objective for which policy change was discussed or intended, nor was it the principal driving force for policy change. When the argument arose, scientific arguments were employed to justify the patient isolation policy. However, in the early post-WWII period, issues were foregrounded and agendas were set as the inadvertent result of administrative reforms. Subsequently, scientific developments were more or less ignored due to concern about adverse policy outcomes. Finally, in the 1980s and 1990s, scientific arguments were used instrumentally to argue against isolation and for the termination of residential care. Conclusion Contrary to public expectations, health policy is not always rational and scientifically justified. In the process of policy making, the role of science can be limited and instrumental. Policy change may require the opening of policy windows, as a result of convergence of the problem, policy, and political streams, by effective exercise of leadership. Scientists and policymakers should be attentive enough to the political context of policies.

  13. Modelling toolkit for simulation of maglev devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peña-Roche, J.; Badía-Majós, A.

    2017-01-01

    A stand-alone App1 has been developed, focused on obtaining information about relevant engineering properties of magnetic levitation systems. Our modelling toolkit provides real time simulations of 2D magneto-mechanical quantities for superconductor (SC)/permanent magnet structures. The source code is open and may be customised for a variety of configurations. Ultimately, it relies on the variational statement of the critical state model for the superconducting component and has been verified against experimental data for YBaCuO/NdFeB assemblies. On a quantitative basis, the values of the arising forces, induced superconducting currents, as well as a plot of the magnetic field lines are displayed upon selection of an arbitrary trajectory of the magnet in the vicinity of the SC. The stability issues related to the cooling process, as well as the maximum attainable forces for a given material and geometry are immediately observed. Due to the complexity of the problem, a strategy based on cluster computing, database compression, and real-time post-processing on the device has been implemented.

  14. Simulation and Modeling Application in Agricultural Mechanization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. M. Hudzari

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This experiment was conducted to determine the equations relating the Hue digital values of the fruits surface of the oil palm with maturity stage of the fruit in plantation. The FFB images were zoomed and captured using Nikon digital camera, and the calculation of Hue was determined using the highest frequency of the value for R, G, and B color components from histogram analysis software. New procedure in monitoring the image pixel value for oil palm fruit color surface in real-time growth maturity was developed. The estimation of day harvesting prediction was calculated based on developed model of relationships for Hue values with mesocarp oil content. The simulation model is regressed and predicts the day of harvesting or a number of days before harvest of FFB. The result from experimenting on mesocarp oil content can be used for real-time oil content determination of MPOB color meter. The graph to determine the day of harvesting the FFB was presented in this research. The oil was found to start developing in mesocarp fruit at 65 days before fruit at ripe maturity stage of 75% oil to dry mesocarp.

  15. Modelization and simulation of capillary barriers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lisbona Cortes, F.; Aguilar Villa, G.; Clavero Gracia, C.; Gracia Lozano, J.L.

    1998-01-01

    Among the different underground transport phenomena, that due to water flows is of great relevance. Water flows in infiltration and percolation processes are responsible of the transport of hazardous wastes towards phreatic layers. From the industrial and geological standpoints, there is a great interest in the design of natural devices to avoid the flows transporting polluting substances. This interest is increased when devices are used to isolate radioactive waste repositories, whose life is to be longer than several hundred years. The so-called natural devices are those based on the superimposition of material with different hydraulic properties. In particular, the flow retention in this kind stratified media, in unsaturated conditions, is basically due to the capillary barrier effect, resulting from placing a low conductivity material over another with a high hydraulic conductivity. Covers designed from the effect above have also to allow a drainage of the upper layer. The lower cost of these covers, with respect to other kinds of protection systems, and the stability in time of their components make them very attractive. However, a previous investigation to determine their effectivity is required. In this report we present the computer code BCSIM, useful for easy simulations of unsaturated flows in a capillary barrier configuration with drainage, and which is intended to serve as a tool for designing efficient covers. The model, the numerical algorithm and several implementation aspects are described. Results obtained in several simulations, confirming the effectivity of capillary barriers as a technique to build safety covers for hazardous waste repositories, are presented. (Author)

  16. Powertrain modeling and simulation for off-road vehicles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ouellette, S. [McGill Univ., Montreal, PQ (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    Standard forward facing automotive powertrain modeling and simulation methodology did not perform equally for all vehicles in all applications in the 2010 winter Olympics, 2009 world alpine ski championships, summit station in Greenland, the McGill Formula Hybrid, Unicell QuickSider, and lunar mobility. This presentation provided a standard automotive powertrain modeling and simulation flow chart as well as an example. It also provided a flow chart for location based powertrain modeling and simulation and discussed location based powertrain modeling and simulation implementation. It was found that in certain applications, vehicle-environment interactions cannot be neglected in order to have good model fidelity. Powertrain modeling and simulation of off-road vehicles demands a new approach to powertrain modeling and simulation. It was concluded that the proposed location based methodology could improve the results for off-road vehicles. tabs., figs.

  17. Reusable Component Model Development Approach for Parallel and Distributed Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Feng; Yao, Yiping; Chen, Huilong; Yao, Feng

    2014-01-01

    Model reuse is a key issue to be resolved in parallel and distributed simulation at present. However, component models built by different domain experts usually have diversiform interfaces, couple tightly, and bind with simulation platforms closely. As a result, they are difficult to be reused across different simulation platforms and applications. To address the problem, this paper first proposed a reusable component model framework. Based on this framework, then our reusable model development approach is elaborated, which contains two phases: (1) domain experts create simulation computational modules observing three principles to achieve their independence; (2) model developer encapsulates these simulation computational modules with six standard service interfaces to improve their reusability. The case study of a radar model indicates that the model developed using our approach has good reusability and it is easy to be used in different simulation platforms and applications. PMID:24729751

  18. Effects of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and tobacco-attributable deaths in Mexico: the SimSmoke model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luz Myriam Reynales-Shigematsu

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To examine how policies adopted in Mexico in response to the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control affected smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. METHODS: The SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy is applied to Mexico. This discrete time, first-order Markov model uses data on population size, smoking rates and tobacco control policy for Mexico. It assesses, individually and jointly, the effects of seven types of policies: cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, mass media campaigns, advertising bans, warning labels, cessation treatment, and youth tobacco access policies. RESULTS: The Mexico SimSmoke model estimates that smoking rates have been reduced by about 30% as a result of policies implemented since 2002, and that the number of smoking-attributable deaths will have been reduced by about 826 000 by 2053. Increases in cigarette prices are responsible for over 60% of the reductions, but health warnings, smoke-free air laws, marketing restrictions and cessation treatments also play important roles. CONCLUSIONS: Mexico has shown steady progress towards reducing smoking prevalence in a short period of time, as have other Latin American countries, such as Brazil, Panama and Uruguay. Tobacco control policies play an important role in continued efforts to reduce tobacco use and associated deaths in Mexico.

  19. Development of Aspen: A microanalytic simulation model of the US economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pryor, R.J.; Basu, N.; Quint, T.

    1996-02-01

    This report describes the development of an agent-based microanalytic simulation model of the US economy. The microsimulation model capitalizes on recent technological advances in evolutionary learning and parallel computing. Results are reported for a test problem that was run using the model. The test results demonstrate the model`s ability to predict business-like cycles in an economy where prices and inventories are allowed to vary. Since most economic forecasting models have difficulty predicting any kind of cyclic behavior. These results show the potential of microanalytic simulation models to improve economic policy analysis and to provide new insights into underlying economic principles. Work already has begun on a more detailed model.

  20. Aircraft vulnerability analysis by modeling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willers, Cornelius J.; Willers, Maria S.; de Waal, Alta

    2014-10-01

    guidance acceleration and seeker sensitivity. For the purpose of this investigation the aircraft is equipped with conventional pyrotechnic decoy flares and the missile has no counter-countermeasure means (security restrictions on open publication). This complete simulation is used to calculate the missile miss distance, when the missile is launched from different locations around the aircraft. The miss distance data is then graphically presented showing miss distance (aircraft vulnerability) as a function of launch direction and range. The aircraft vulnerability graph accounts for aircraft and missile characteristics, but does not account for missile deployment doctrine. A Bayesian network is constructed to fuse the doctrinal rules with the aircraft vulnerability data. The Bayesian network now provides the capability to evaluate the combined risk of missile launch and aircraft vulnerability. It is shown in this paper that it is indeed possible to predict the aircraft vulnerability to missile attack in a comprehensive modelling and a holistic process. By using the appropriate real-world models, this approach is used to evaluate the effectiveness of specific countermeasure techniques against specific missile threats. The use of a Bayesian network provides the means to fuse simulated performance data with more abstract doctrinal rules to provide a realistic assessment of the aircraft vulnerability.

  1. Model calibration for building energy efficiency simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mustafaraj, Giorgio; Marini, Dashamir; Costa, Andrea; Keane, Marcus

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Developing a 3D model relating to building architecture, occupancy and HVAC operation. • Two calibration stages developed, final model providing accurate results. • Using an onsite weather station for generating the weather data file in EnergyPlus. • Predicting thermal behaviour of underfloor heating, heat pump and natural ventilation. • Monthly energy saving opportunities related to heat pump of 20–27% was identified. - Abstract: This research work deals with an Environmental Research Institute (ERI) building where an underfloor heating system and natural ventilation are the main systems used to maintain comfort condition throughout 80% of the building areas. Firstly, this work involved developing a 3D model relating to building architecture, occupancy and HVAC operation. Secondly, the calibration methodology, which consists of two levels, was then applied in order to insure accuracy and reduce the likelihood of errors. To further improve the accuracy of calibration a historical weather data file related to year 2011, was created from the on-site local weather station of ERI building. After applying the second level of calibration process, the values of Mean bias Error (MBE) and Cumulative Variation of Root Mean Squared Error (CV(RMSE)) on hourly based analysis for heat pump electricity consumption varied within the following ranges: (MBE) hourly from −5.6% to 7.5% and CV(RMSE) hourly from 7.3% to 25.1%. Finally, the building was simulated with EnergyPlus to identify further possibilities of energy savings supplied by a water to water heat pump to underfloor heating system. It found that electricity consumption savings from the heat pump can vary between 20% and 27% on monthly bases

  2. Application of AERMOD on near future air quality simulation under the latest national emission control policy of China: a case study on an industrial city.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jieyun; Yi, Honghong; Tang, Xiaolong; Zhang, Yan; Xiang, Ying; Pu, Li

    2013-08-01

    Air quality model can be an adequate tool for future air quality prediction, also atmospheric observations supporting and emission control strategies responders. The influence of emission control policy (emission reduction targets in the national "China's 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015)") on the air quality in the near future over an important industrial city of China, Xuanwei in Yunnan Province, was studied by applying the AERMOD modeling system. First, our analysis demonstrated that the AERMOD modeling system could be used in the air quality simulation in the near future for SO2 and NOx under average meteorology but not for PM10. Second, after evaluating the simulation results in 2008 and 2015, ambient concentration of SO2, NOx and PM10 (only 2008) were all centered in the middle of simulation area where the emission sources concentrated, and it is probably because the air pollutions were source oriented. Last but not least, a better air quality condition will happen under the hypothesis that the average meteorological data can be used in near future simulation. However, there are still heavy polluted areas where ambient concentrations will exceed the air quality standard in near future. In spatial allocation, reduction effect of SO2 is more significant than NOx in 2015 as the contribution of SO2 from industry is more than NOx. These results inspired the regulatory applications of AERMOD modeling system in evaluating environmental pollutant control policy.

  3. Modeling and Recognizing Policy Conflicts with Resource Access Requests on Protected Health Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raik Kuhlisch

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses potential clashes between different types of security policies that regulate resource access requests on clinical patient data in hospitals by employees. Attribute-based Access Control (ABAC is proposed as a proper means for such regulation. A proper representation of ABAC policies must include a handling of policy attributes among different policy types. In this article, we propose a semantic policy model with predefined policy conflict categories. A conformance verification function detects erroneous, clashing or mutually susceptible rules early during the policy planning phase. The model and conflicts are used in a conceptual application environment and evaluated in a technical experiment during an interoperability test event.

  4. Sunspot Modeling: From Simplified Models to Radiative MHD Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rolf Schlichenmaier

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available We review our current understanding of sunspots from the scales of their fine structure to their large scale (global structure including the processes of their formation and decay. Recently, sunspot models have undergone a dramatic change. In the past, several aspects of sunspot structure have been addressed by static MHD models with parametrized energy transport. Models of sunspot fine structure have been relying heavily on strong assumptions about flow and field geometry (e.g., flux-tubes, "gaps", convective rolls, which were motivated in part by the observed filamentary structure of penumbrae or the necessity of explaining the substantial energy transport required to maintain the penumbral brightness. However, none of these models could self-consistently explain all aspects of penumbral structure (energy transport, filamentation, Evershed flow. In recent years, 3D radiative MHD simulations have been advanced dramatically to the point at which models of complete sunspots with sufficient resolution to capture sunspot fine structure are feasible. Here overturning convection is the central element responsible for energy transport, filamentation leading to fine-structure and the driving of strong outflows. On the larger scale these models are also in the progress of addressing the subsurface structure of sunspots as well as sunspot formation. With this shift in modeling capabilities and the recent advances in high resolution observations, the future research will be guided by comparing observation and theory.

  5. Predictive Capability Maturity Model for computational modeling and simulation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oberkampf, William Louis; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Pilch, Martin M.

    2007-10-01

    The Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) is a new model that can be used to assess the level of maturity of computational modeling and simulation (M&S) efforts. The development of the model is based on both the authors experience and their analysis of similar investigations in the past. The perspective taken in this report is one of judging the usefulness of a predictive capability that relies on the numerical solution to partial differential equations to better inform and improve decision making. The review of past investigations, such as the Software Engineering Institute's Capability Maturity Model Integration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Department of Defense Technology Readiness Levels, indicates that a more restricted, more interpretable method is needed to assess the maturity of an M&S effort. The PCMM addresses six contributing elements to M&S: (1) representation and geometric fidelity, (2) physics and material model fidelity, (3) code verification, (4) solution verification, (5) model validation, and (6) uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. For each of these elements, attributes are identified that characterize four increasing levels of maturity. Importantly, the PCMM is a structured method for assessing the maturity of an M&S effort that is directed toward an engineering application of interest. The PCMM does not assess whether the M&S effort, the accuracy of the predictions, or the performance of the engineering system satisfies or does not satisfy specified application requirements.

  6. Heterogeneity in general practitioners' preferences for quality improvement programs: a choice experiment and policy simulation in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ammi, Mehdi; Peyron, Christine

    2016-12-01

    Despite increasing popularity, quality improvement programs (QIP) have had modest and variable impacts on enhancing the quality of physician practice. We investigate the heterogeneity of physicians' preferences as a potential explanation of these mixed results in France, where the national voluntary QIP - the CAPI - has been cancelled due to its unpopularity. We rely on a discrete choice experiment to elicit heterogeneity in physicians' preferences for the financial and non-financial components of QIP. Using mixed and latent class logit models, results show that the two models should be used in concert to shed light on different aspects of the heterogeneity in preferences. In particular, the mixed logit demonstrates that heterogeneity in preferences is concentrated on the pay-for-performance component of the QIP, while the latent class model shows that physicians can be grouped in four homogeneous groups with specific preference patterns. Using policy simulation, we compare the French CAPI with other possible QIPs, and show that the majority of the physician subgroups modelled dislike the CAPI, while favouring a QIP using only non-financial interventions. We underline the importance of modelling preference heterogeneity in designing and implementing QIPs.

  7. A Single, Continuously Applied Control Policy for Modeling Reaching Movements with and without Perturbation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhe; Mazzoni, Pietro; Song, Sen; Qian, Ning

    2018-02-01

    It has been debated whether kinematic features, such as the number of peaks or decomposed submovements in a velocity profile, indicate the number of discrete motor impulses or result from a continuous control process. The debate is particularly relevant for tasks involving target perturbation, which can alter movement kinematics. To simulate such tasks, finite-horizon models require two preset movement durations to compute two control policies before and after the perturbation. Another model employs infinite- and finite-horizon formulations to determine, respectively, movement durations and control policies, which are updated every time step. We adopted an infinite-horizon optimal feedback control model that, unlike previous approaches, does not preset movement durations or use multiple control policies. It contains both control-dependent and independent noises in system dynamics, state-dependent and independent noises in sensory feedbacks, and different delays and noise levels for visual and proprioceptive feedbacks. We analytically derived an optimal solution that can be applied continuously to move an effector toward a target regardless of whether, when, or where the target jumps. This single policy produces different numbers of peaks and "submovements" in velocity profiles for different conditions and trials. Movements that are slower or perturbed later appear to have more submovements. The model is also consistent with the observation that subjects can perform the perturbation task even without detecting the target jump or seeing their hands during reaching. Finally, because the model incorporates Weber's law via a state representation relative to the target, it explains why initial and terminal visual feedback are, respectively, less and more effective in improving end-point accuracy. Our work suggests that the number of peaks or submovements in a velocity profile does not necessarily reflect the number of motor impulses and that the difference between

  8. A systems approach to college drinking: development of a deterministic model for testing alcohol control policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scribner, Richard; Ackleh, Azmy S; Fitzpatrick, Ben G; Jacquez, Geoffrey; Thibodeaux, Jeremy J; Rommel, Robert; Simonsen, Neal

    2009-09-01

    The misuse and abuse of alcohol among college students remain persistent problems. Using a systems approach to understand the dynamics of student drinking behavior and thus forecasting the impact of campus policy to address the problem represents a novel approach. Toward this end, the successful development of a predictive mathematical model of college drinking would represent a significant advance for prevention efforts. A deterministic, compartmental model of college drinking was developed, incorporating three processes: (1) individual factors, (2) social interactions, and (3) social norms. The model quantifies these processes in terms of the movement of students between drinking compartments characterized by five styles of college drinking: abstainers, light drinkers, moderate drinkers, problem drinkers, and heavy episodic drinkers. Predictions from the model were first compared with actual campus-level data and then used to predict the effects of several simulated interventions to address heavy episodic drinking. First, the model provides a reasonable fit of actual drinking styles of students attending Social Norms Marketing Research Project campuses varying by "wetness" and by drinking styles of matriculating students. Second, the model predicts that a combination of simulated interventions targeting heavy episodic drinkers at a moderately "dry" campus would extinguish heavy episodic drinkers, replacing them with light and moderate drinkers. Instituting the same combination of simulated interventions at a moderately "wet" campus would result in only a moderate reduction in heavy episodic drinkers (i.e., 50% to 35%). A simple, five-state compartmental model adequately predicted the actual drinking patterns of students from a variety of campuses surveyed in the Social Norms Marketing Research Project study. The model predicted the impact on drinking patterns of several simulated interventions to address heavy episodic drinking on various types of campuses.

  9. Games, Social Simulations, and Data--Integration for Policy Decisions: The "Sudan" Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landwehr, Peter; Spraragen, Marc; Ranganathan, Balki; Carley, Kathleen M.; Zyda, Michael

    2013-01-01

    In this article, the authors discuss the development of the "Sudan Game," an interactive model of the country in the time period leading up to the Sudanese referendum on the secession of the South. While many simulations are designed to educate about their subjects, the "Sudan Game" is intended to be a prototype for policy…

  10. Beyond Modeling: All-Atom Olfactory Receptor Model Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter C Lai

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Olfactory receptors (ORs are a type of GTP-binding protein-coupled receptor (GPCR. These receptors are responsible for mediating the sense of smell through their interaction with odor ligands. OR-odorant interactions marks the first step in the process that leads to olfaction. Computational studies on model OR structures can validate experimental functional studies as well as generate focused and novel hypotheses for further bench investigation by providing a view of these interactions at the molecular level. Here we have shown the specific advantages of simulating the dynamic environment that is associated with OR-odorant interactions. We present a rigorous methodology that ranges from the creation of a computationally-derived model of an olfactory receptor to simulating the interactions between an OR and an odorant molecule. Given the ubiquitous occurrence of GPCRs in the membranes of cells, we anticipate that our OR-developed methodology will serve as a model for the computational structural biology of all GPCRs.

  11. Federated Modelling and Simulation for Critical Infrastructure Protection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rome, E.; Langeslag, P.J.H.; Usov, A.

    2014-01-01

    Modelling and simulation is an important tool for Critical Infrastructure (CI) dependency analysis, for testing methods for risk reduction, and as well for the evaluation of past failures. Moreover, interaction of such simulations with external threat models, e.g., a river flood model, or economic

  12. IDEF method-based simulation model design and development framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ki-Young Jeong

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to provide an IDEF method-based integrated framework for a business process simulation model to reduce the model development time by increasing the communication and knowledge reusability during a simulation project. In this framework, simulation requirements are collected by a function modeling method (IDEF0 and a process modeling method (IDEF3. Based on these requirements, a common data model is constructed using the IDEF1X method. From this reusable data model, multiple simulation models are automatically generated using a database-driven simulation model development approach. The framework is claimed to help both requirement collection and experimentation phases during a simulation project by improving system knowledge, model reusability, and maintainability through the systematic use of three descriptive IDEF methods and the features of the relational database technologies. A complex semiconductor fabrication case study was used as a testbed to evaluate and illustrate the concepts and the framework. Two different simulation software products were used to develop and control the semiconductor model from the same knowledge base. The case study empirically showed that this framework could help improve the simulation project processes by using IDEF-based descriptive models and the relational database technology. Authors also concluded that this framework could be easily applied to other analytical model generation by separating the logic from the data.

  13. Simulation models in population breast cancer screening : A systematic review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koleva-Kolarova, Rositsa G; Zhan, Zhuozhao; Greuter, Marcel J W; Feenstra, Talitha L; De Bock, Geertruida H

    The aim of this review was to critically evaluate published simulation models for breast cancer screening of the general population and provide a direction for future modeling. A systematic literature search was performed to identify simulation models with more than one application. A framework for

  14. Simulation Modeling of a Facility Layout in Operations Management Classes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yazici, Hulya Julie

    2006-01-01

    Teaching quantitative courses can be challenging. Similarly, layout modeling and lean production concepts can be difficult to grasp in an introductory OM (operations management) class. This article describes a simulation model developed in PROMODEL to facilitate the learning of layout modeling and lean manufacturing. Simulation allows for the…

  15. The Random Walk Drainage Simulation Model as a Teaching Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    High, Colin; Richards, Paul

    1972-01-01

    Practical instructions about using the random walk drainage network simulation model as a teaching excercise are given and the results discussed. A source of directional bias in the resulting simulated drainage patterns is identified and given an interpretation in the terms of the model. Three points of educational value concerning the model are…

  16. Maneuver simulation model of an experimental hovercraft for the Antarctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murao, Rinichi

    Results of an investigation of a hovercraft model designed for Antarctic conditions are presented. The buoyancy characteristics, the propellant control system, and simulation model control are examined. An ACV (air cushion vehicle) model of the hovercraft is used to examine the flexibility and friction of the skirt. Simulation results are presented which show the performance of the hovercraft.

  17. Historical Development of Simulation Models of Recreation Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jan W. van Wagtendonk; David N. Cole

    2005-01-01

    The potential utility of modeling as a park and wilderness management tool has been recognized for decades. Romesburg (1974) explored how mathematical decision modeling could be used to improve decisions about regulation of wilderness use. Cesario (1975) described a computer simulation modeling approach that utilized GPSS (General Purpose Systems Simulator), a...

  18. Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, A.; Jauch, Clemens; Soerensen, P.

    The present report describes the dynamic wind turbine models implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT. The developed models are a part of the results of a national research project, whose overall objective is to create a model database in different simulation tools. The report...

  19. A New Model for Simulating TSS Washoff in Urban Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Crobeddu

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the formulation and validation of the conceptual Runoff Quality Simulation Model (RQSM that was developed to simulate the erosion and transport of solid particles in urban areas. The RQSM assumes that solid particle accumulation on pervious and impervious areas is infinite. The RQSM simulates soil erosion using rainfall kinetic energy and solid particle transport with linear system theory. A sensitivity analysis was conducted on the RQSM to show the influence of each parameter on the simulated load. Total suspended solid (TSS loads monitored at the outlet of the borough of Verdun in Canada and at three catchment outlets of the City of Champaign in the United States were used to validate the RQSM. TSS loads simulated by the RQSM were compared to measured loads and to loads simulated by the Rating Curve model and the Exponential model of the SWMM software. The simulation performance of the RQSM was comparable to the Exponential and Rating Curve models.

  20. Business Process Simulation: Requirements for Business and Resource Models

    OpenAIRE

    Audrius Rima; Olegas Vasilecas

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) is to provide easily understandable graphical representation of business process. Thus BPMN is widely used and applied in various areas one of them being a business process simulation. This paper addresses some BPMN model based business process simulation problems. The paper formulate requirements for business process and resource models in enabling their use for business process simulation.

  1. Evaluation of Marine Corps Manpower Computer Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    overall end strength are maintained. To assist their mission, an agent-based computer simulation model was developed in the Java computer language...maintained. To assist their mission, an agent-based computer simulation model was developed in the Java computer language. This thesis investigates that...a simulation software that models business practices to assist that business in its “ability to analyze and make decisions on how to improve (their

  2. Ion thruster modeling: Particle simulations and experimental validations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Joseph; Polk, James; Brinza, David

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents results from ion thruster modeling studies performed in support of NASA's Deep Space 1 mission and NSTAR project. Fully 3-dimensional computer particle simulation models are presented for ion optics plasma flow and ion thruster plume. Ion optics simulation results are compared with measurements obtained from ground tests of the NSTAR ion thruster. Plume simulation results are compared with in-flight measurements from the Deep Space 1 spacecraft. Both models show excellent agreement with experimental data

  3. Business Process Simulation: Requirements for Business and Resource Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Audrius Rima

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN is to provide easily understandable graphical representation of business process. Thus BPMN is widely used and applied in various areas one of them being a business process simulation. This paper addresses some BPMN model based business process simulation problems. The paper formulate requirements for business process and resource models in enabling their use for business process simulation.

  4. The COD Model: Simulating Workgroup Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biggiero, Lucio; Sevi, Enrico

    Though the question of the determinants of workgroup performance is one of the most central in organization science, precise theoretical frameworks and formal demonstrations are still missing. In order to fill in this gap the COD agent-based simulation model is here presented and used to study the effects of task interdependence and bounded rationality on workgroup performance. The first relevant finding is an algorithmic demonstration of the ordering of interdependencies in terms of complexity, showing that the parallel mode is the most simplex, followed by the sequential and then by the reciprocal. This result is far from being new in organization science, but what is remarkable is that now it has the strength of an algorithmic demonstration instead of being based on the authoritativeness of some scholar or on some episodic empirical finding. The second important result is that the progressive introduction of realistic limits to agents' rationality dramatically reduces workgroup performance and addresses to a rather interesting result: when agents' rationality is severely bounded simple norms work better than complex norms. The third main finding is that when the complexity of interdependence is high, then the appropriate coordination mechanism is agents' direct and active collaboration, which means teamwork.

  5. Millimeter waves sensor modeling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latger, Jean; Cathala, Thierry

    2015-10-01

    Guidance of weapon systems relies on sensors to analyze targets signature. Defense weapon systems also need to detect then identify threats also using sensors. One important class of sensors are millimeter waves radar systems that are very efficient for seeing through atmosphere and/or foliage for example. This type of high frequency radar can produce high quality images with very tricky features such as dihedral and trihedral bright points, shadows and lay over effect. Besides, image quality is very dependent on the carrier velocity and trajectory. Such sensors systems are so complex that they need simulation to be tested. This paper presents a state of the Art of millimeter waves sensor models. A short presentation of asymptotic methods shows that physical optics support is mandatory to reach realistic results. SE-Workbench-RF tool is presented and typical examples of results are shown both in the frame of Synthetic Aperture Radar sensors and Real Beam Ground Mapping radars. Several technical topics are then discussed, such as the rendering technique (ray tracing vs. rasterization), the implementation (CPU vs. GP GPU) and the tradeoff between physical accuracy and performance of computation. Examples of results using SE-Workbench-RF are showed and commented.

  6. An Integrated Simulation Model for Dynamically Exploring the Optimal Solution to Mitigating Water Scarcity and Pollution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Yang

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available An integrated optimization simulation model has been developed based on an input-output approach to mitigate water pollution and water scarcity through embedding environmental economic policies and applicable technologies into a complex environ-economic system to obtain an optimal set of policies and technologies that promotes the maximization of the regional economy under the constraints of water pollutant discharge and water availability. An empirical study is undertaken with the Source Region of Liao River as the target area to verify the performance of the model. The relationships between the water environment and socio-economic systems are presented by clarifying the trends in economic development, water pollutant discharge and water supply and demand during a time horizon from 2011 to 2020. The endogenously-formed optimal set of policies and industrial restructuring simultaneously facilitate the reduction of water pollutant discharge and water consumption and increase the water supply. The extent of the mitigation of water pollution and water scarcity via applied policies and technologies promoted by the subsidies provided by the government are specified, and the mechanism of the policy application and subsidization distribution is explained. This model has applicability for other regions in terms of giving an optimal solution via comprehensive assessment of all of the proposed sustainability-related policies with sufficient data accessibility to achieve regional sustainable development.

  7. A conceptual modeling framework for discrete event simulation using hierarchical control structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furian, N; O'Sullivan, M; Walker, C; Vössner, S; Neubacher, D

    2015-08-01

    Conceptual Modeling (CM) is a fundamental step in a simulation project. Nevertheless, it is only recently that structured approaches towards the definition and formulation of conceptual models have gained importance in the Discrete Event Simulation (DES) community. As a consequence, frameworks and guidelines for applying CM to DES have emerged and discussion of CM for DES is increasing. However, both the organization of model-components and the identification of behavior and system control from standard CM approaches have shortcomings that limit CM's applicability to DES. Therefore, we discuss the different aspects of previous CM frameworks and identify their limitations. Further, we present the Hierarchical Control Conceptual Modeling framework that pays more attention to the identification of a models' system behavior, control policies and dispatching routines and their structured representation within a conceptual model. The framework guides the user step-by-step through the modeling process and is illustrated by a worked example.

  8. Design and application of a technologically explicit hybrid energy-economy policy model with micro and macro economic dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bataille, Christopher G. F.

    2005-11-01

    Are further energy efficiency gains, or more recently greenhouse gas reductions, expensive or cheap? Analysts provide conflicting advice to policy makers based on divergent modelling perspectives, a 'top-down/bottom-up debate' in which economists use equation based models that equilibrate markets by maximizing consumer welfare, and technologists use technology simulation models that minimize the financial cost of providing energy services. This thesis summarizes a long term research project to find a middle ground between these two positions that is more useful to policy makers. Starting with the individual components of a behaviourally realistic and technologically explicit simulation model (ISTUM---Inter Sectoral Technology Use Model), or "hybrid", the individual sectors of the economy are linked using a framework of micro and macro economic feedbacks. These feedbacks are taken from the economic theory that informs the computable general equilibrium (CGE) family of models. Speaking in the languages of both economists and engineers, the resulting "physical" equilibrium model of Canada (CIMS---Canadian Integrated Modeling System), equilibrates energy and end-product markets, including imports and exports, for seven regions and 15 economic sectors, including primary industry, manufacturing, transportation, commerce, residences, governmental infrastructure and the energy supply sectors. Several different policy experiments demonstrate the value-added of the model and how its results compare to top-down and bottom-up practice. In general, the results show that technical adjustments make up about half the response to simulated energy policy, and macroeconomic demand adjustments the other half. Induced technical adjustments predominate with minor policies, while the importance of macroeconomic demand adjustment increases with the strength of the policy. Results are also shown for an experiment to derive estimates of future elasticity of substitution (ESUB) and

  9. Impact of policies regulating foreign physician migration to Switzerland: a modelling case study in anaesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haller, Guy; Combescure, Christophe; Mamie, Chantal; Zoccatelli, Davide; Clergue, François

    2015-05-22

    Several countries have developed policies that restrict or limit duration of stay, clinical privileges or the number of residency permits allocated to migrating physicians. Switzerland is currently preparing a new law limiting overall foreign immigration. The impact of such restrictive policies is currently unknown. In a case study of anaesthesia care in Switzerland we modelled, trends in the size of physicians' workforce until 2024, following the implementation of a strict quota policy for foreign medical trainees. We developed a computer-based Markov model with Monte-Carlo simulations to project, in the context of a strict quota policy for foreign trainees, supply and demand for anaesthesia positions until 2024. We used data from a cross-sectional study performed in the French- and Italian-speaking cantons of Switzerland and the Health dataset from the OECD. With 8 to 12 (95% CI 4-20) anaesthetists retiring per year, the implementation of strict quotas of foreign graduates would result in a 38% decrease in the number of anaesthetists in intermediary (senior registrars) positions by 2024. This decrease would be particularly important in district hospitals where nearly half (49%) of the non-Swiss anaesthetists are practising. Swiss graduates are unlikely to balance the shortage. Despite efforts by Swiss universities to increase the number of medical graduates, their number has dropped from 10.5 to 9.7/100 000 inhabitants between 2000 and 2012, due to the growth of the population. This case study in Latin Switzerland shows that a restrictive policy limiting foreign immigration of trainees would result in a major deficit in the number of anaesthetists available to meet population needs. These aspects should be carefully considered when countries develop restrictions and limitations of foreign immigration.

  10. Modeling and Simulation Fundamentals Theoretical Underpinnings and Practical Domains

    CERN Document Server

    Sokolowski, John A

    2010-01-01

    An insightful presentation of the key concepts, paradigms, and applications of modeling and simulation. Modeling and simulation has become an integral part of research and development across many fields of study, having evolved from a tool to a discipline in less than two decades. Modeling and Simulation Fundamentals offers a comprehensive and authoritative treatment of the topic and includes definitions, paradigms, and applications to equip readers with the skills needed to work successfully as developers and users of modeling and simulation. Featuring contributions written by leading experts

  11. Global Information Enterprise (GIE) Modeling and Simulation (GIESIM)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bell, Paul

    2005-01-01

    ... AND S) toolkits into the Global Information Enterprise (GIE) Modeling and Simulation (GIESim) framework to create effective user analysis of candidate communications architectures and technologies...

  12. Modeling, Simulation and Position Control of 3DOF Articulated Manipulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Sadegh Lafmejani

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the modeling, simulation and control of 3 degrees of freedom articulated robotic manipulator have been studied. First, we extracted kinematics and dynamics equations of the mentioned manipulator by using the Lagrange method. In order to validate the analytical model of the manipulator we compared the model simulated in the simulation environment of Matlab with the model was simulated with the SimMechanics toolbox. A sample path has been designed for analyzing the tracking subject. The system has been linearized with feedback linearization and then a PID controller was applied to track a reference trajectory. Finally, the control results have been compared with a nonlinear PID controller.

  13. Modeling and Simulation of U-tube Steam Generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Mingming; Fu, Zhongguang; Li, Jinyao; Wang, Mingfei

    2018-03-01

    The U-tube natural circulation steam generator was mainly researched with modeling and simulation in this article. The research is based on simuworks system simulation software platform. By analyzing the structural characteristics and the operating principle of U-tube steam generator, there are 14 control volumes in the model, including primary side, secondary side, down channel and steam plenum, etc. The model depends completely on conservation laws, and it is applied to make some simulation tests. The results show that the model is capable of simulating properly the dynamic response of U-tube steam generator.

  14. Simulating a thermal water quality trading market for education and model development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bier, Asmeret

    2010-12-01

    Thermal water quality trading is an emerging policy tool that allows thermal polluters to comply with effluent restrictions by paying landowners to plant shade trees. A simulation game was created to help participants understand the structure, dynamics, benefits, and drawbacks of thermal water quality trading markets. Simulation participants negotiate to make trades, and their decisions are entered into a system dynamics model that simulates tree growth and water temperature. A debriefing session allows the participants to discuss outcomes and strategies. The exercise has been performed twice and has proven to be a useful teaching tool. These simulations provided valuable insight into decision-making strategies in thermal water quality trading markets, suggesting decision rules that the researchers used for subsequent model development. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Incorporating teleconnection information into reservoir operating policies using Stochastic Dynamic Programming and a Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Sean; Galelli, Stefano; Wilcox, Karen

    2015-04-01

    Water reservoir systems are often affected by recurring large-scale ocean-atmospheric anomalies, known as teleconnections, that cause prolonged periods of climatological drought. Accurate forecasts of these events -- at lead times in the order of weeks and months -- may enable reservoir operators to take more effective release decisions to improve the performance of their systems. In practice this might mean a more reliable water supply system, a more profitable hydropower plant or a more sustainable environmental release policy. To this end, climate indices, which represent the oscillation of the ocean-atmospheric system, might be gainfully employed within reservoir operating models that adapt the reservoir operation as a function of the climate condition. This study develops a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) approach that can incorporate climate indices using a Hidden Markov Model. The model simulates the climatic regime as a hidden state following a Markov chain, with the state transitions driven by variation in climatic indices, such as the Southern Oscillation Index. Time series analysis of recorded streamflow data reveals the parameters of separate autoregressive models that describe the inflow to the reservoir under three representative climate states ("normal", "wet", "dry"). These models then define inflow transition probabilities for use in a classic SDP approach. The key advantage of the Hidden Markov Model is that it allows conditioning the operating policy not only on the reservoir storage and the antecedent inflow, but also on the climate condition, thus potentially allowing adaptability to a broader range of climate conditions. In practice, the reservoir operator would effect a water release tailored to a specific climate state based on available teleconnection data and forecasts. The approach is demonstrated on the operation of a realistic, stylised water reservoir with carry-over capacity in South-East Australia. Here teleconnections relating

  16. Simulation Models in Economic Higher Education

    OpenAIRE

    Paraschiv Dorel Mihai; Belu Mihaela Gabriela; Popa Ioan

    2013-01-01

    The simulation methods are implemented to develop students' professional skills and competencies in the economic field, making the link between the academic and business environments. The paper presents these methods of simulation in areas such as trade, international business, tourism and banking, applied in the European Program POSDRU/90/2.1/S/63442 project.

  17. Hybrid modeling to support energy-climate policy: Effects of feed-in tariffs to promote renewable energy in Portugal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Proença, Sara; St Aubyn, Miguel

    2013-01-01

    Feed-in tariffs have been the main policy instrument applied in Portugal for the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources under the EU Directives on energy and climate regulation. In this paper, we provide an empirical impact assessment of the economic and environmental effects of Portugal's FITs policy to promote RES-E generation. Impact assessment of policy instruments plays a crucial role on decision-making process. For numerical simulations, we make use of a hybrid top-down/bottom-up general equilibrium modeling approach, which represents a reliable tool to analyze the complex interactions between economic, energy, and environmental issues related to energy policies. Numerical simulations confirm the empirical evidence that the FITs policy implemented by Portugal was both an effective and a cost-efficient way to increase the generation of electricity from renewable energy sources and thus to achieve the national RES-E target of 45% in 2010. Results show relatively modest macroeconomic impacts indicating potentially low economic adjustment costs. From an environmental perspective, the deployment of renewable energy source results in significant carbon emissions reductions. - Highlights: ► We provide an impact assessment of Portugal's FITs policy to promote RES-E generation. ► For numerical simulations, we make use of a hybrid top-down/bottom-up general equilibrium model. ► Portugal's FITs policy proved to be a cost-efficient way to increase generation of renewable electricity. ► Results show relatively modest macroeconomic effects indicating potentially low economic adjustment costs. ► The deployment of renewable energy sources results in significant carbon emission reductions

  18. Snoopy's hybrid simulator: a tool to construct and simulate hybrid biological models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herajy, Mostafa; Liu, Fei; Rohr, Christian; Heiner, Monika

    2017-07-28

    Hybrid simulation of (computational) biochemical reaction networks, which combines stochastic and deterministic dynamics, is an important direction to tackle future challenges due to complex and multi-scale models. Inherently hybrid computational models of biochemical networks entail two time scales: fast and slow. Therefore, it is intricate to efficiently and accurately analyse them using only either deterministic or stochastic simulation. However, there are only a few software tools that support such an approach. These tools are often limited with respect to the number as well as the functionalities of the provided hybrid simulation algorithms. We present Snoopy's hybrid simulator, an efficient hybrid simulation software which builds on Snoopy, a tool to construct and simulate Petri nets. Snoopy's hybrid simulator provides a wide range of state-of-the-art hybrid simulation algorithms. Using this tool, a computational model of biochemical networks can be constructed using a (coloured) hybrid Petri net's graphical notations, or imported from other compatible formats (e.g. SBML), and afterwards executed via dynamic or static hybrid simulation. Snoopy's hybrid simulator is a platform-independent tool providing an accurate and efficient simulation of hybrid (biological) models. It can be downloaded free of charge as part of Snoopy from http://www-dssz.informatik.tu-cottbus.de/DSSZ/Software/Snoopy .

  19. MODEL OF HEAT SIMULATOR FOR DATA CENTERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Novotný

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to present a design and a development of a heat simulator, which will be used for a flow research in data centers. The designed heat simulator is based on an ideological basis of four-processor 1U Supermicro server. The designed heat simulator enables to control the flow and heat output within the range of 10–100 %. The paper covers also the results of testing measurements of mass flow rates and heat flow rates in the simulator. The flow field at the outlet of the server was measured by the stereo PIV method. The heat flow rate was determined, based on measuring the temperature field at the inlet and outlet of the simulator and known mass flow rate.

  20. Simulation Tools Model Icing for Aircraft Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    the years from strictly a research tool to one used routinely by industry and other government agencies. Glenn contractor William Wright has been the architect of this development, supported by a team of researchers investigating icing physics, creating validation data, and ensuring development according to standard software engineering practices. The program provides a virtual simulation environment for determining where water droplets strike an airfoil in flight, what kind of ice would result, and what shape that ice would take. Users can enter geometries for specific, two-dimensional cross sections of an airfoil or other airframe surface and then apply a range of inputs - different droplet sizes, temperatures, airspeeds, and more - to model how ice would build up on the surface in various conditions. The program s versatility, ease of use, and speed - LEWICE can run through complex icing simulations in only a few minutes - have contributed to it becoming a popular resource in the aviation industry.

  1. Common modelling approaches for training simulators for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-02-01

    Training simulators for nuclear power plant operating staff have gained increasing importance over the last twenty years. One of the recommendations of the 1983 IAEA Specialists' Meeting on Nuclear Power Plant Training Simulators in Helsinki was to organize a Co-ordinated Research Programme (CRP) on some aspects of training simulators. The goal statement was: ''To establish and maintain a common approach to modelling for nuclear training simulators based on defined training requirements''. Before adapting this goal statement, the participants considered many alternatives for defining the common aspects of training simulator models, such as the programming language used, the nature of the simulator computer system, the size of the simulation computers, the scope of simulation. The participants agreed that it was the training requirements that defined the need for a simulator, the scope of models and hence the type of computer complex that was required, the criteria for fidelity and verification, and was therefore the most appropriate basis for the commonality of modelling approaches. It should be noted that the Co-ordinated Research Programme was restricted, for a variety of reasons, to consider only a few aspects of training simulators. This report reflects these limitations, and covers only the topics considered within the scope of the programme. The information in this document is intended as an aid for operating organizations to identify possible modelling approaches for training simulators for nuclear power plants. 33 refs

  2. Econometric Model of Rice Policy Based On Presidential Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abadi Sembiring, Surya; Hutauruk, Julia

    2018-01-01

    The objective of research is to build an econometric model based on Presidential Instruction rice policy. The data was monthly time series from March 2005 to September 2009. Rice policy model specification using simultaneous equation, consisting of 14 structural equations and four identity equation, which was estimated using Two Stages Least Squares (2SLS) method. The results show that: (1) an increase of government purchasing price of dried harvest paddy has a positive impact on to increase in total rice production and community rice stock, (2) an increase community rice stock lead to decrease the rice imports, (3) an increase of the realization of the distribution of subsidized ZA fertilizers and the realization of the distribution of subsidized NPK fertilizers has a positive impact on to increase in total rice production and community rice stock and to reduce rice imports, (4) the price of the dried harvest paddy is highly responsive to the water content of dried harvest paddy both the short run and long run, (5) the quantity of rice imported is highly responsive to the imported rice price, both short run and long run.

  3. A pedagogical walkthrough of computational modeling and simulation of Wnt signaling pathway using static causal models in MATLAB

    OpenAIRE

    Sinha, Shriprakash

    2016-01-01

    Simulation study in systems biology involving computational experiments dealing with Wnt signaling pathways abound in literature but often lack a pedagogical perspective that might ease the understanding of beginner students and researchers in transition, who intend to work on the modeling of the pathway. This paucity might happen due to restrictive business policies which enforce an unwanted embargo on the sharing of important scientific knowledge. A tutorial introduction to computational mo...

  4. Structure, Function, and Applications of the Georgetown-Einstein (GE) Breast Cancer Simulation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schechter, Clyde B; Near, Aimee M; Jayasekera, Jinani; Chandler, Young; Mandelblatt, Jeanne S

    2018-04-01

    The Georgetown University-Albert Einstein College of Medicine breast cancer simulation model (Model GE) has evolved over time in structure and function to reflect advances in knowledge about breast cancer, improvements in early detection and treatment technology, and progress in computing resources. This article describes the model and provides examples of model applications. The model is a discrete events microsimulation of single-life histories of women from multiple birth cohorts. Events are simulated in the absence of screening and treatment, and interventions are then applied to assess their impact on population breast cancer trends. The model accommodates differences in natural history associated with estrogen receptor (ER) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) biomarkers, as well as conventional breast cancer risk factors. The approach for simulating breast cancer natural history is phenomenological, relying on dates, stage, and age of clinical and screen detection for a tumor molecular subtype without explicitly modeling tumor growth. The inputs to the model are regularly updated to reflect current practice. Numerous technical modifications, including the use of object-oriented programming (C++), and more efficient algorithms, along with hardware advances, have increased program efficiency permitting simulations of large samples. The model results consistently match key temporal trends in US breast cancer incidence and mortality. The model has been used in collaboration with other CISNET models to assess cancer control policies and will be applied to evaluate clinical trial design, recurrence risk, and polygenic risk-based screening.

  5. Learning by Doing vs Learning by Researching in a Model of Climate Change Policy Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castelnuovo, E.; Galeotti, M.; Vergalli, S.; Gambarelli, G.

    2004-01-01

    Many predictions and conclusions in the climate change literature have been made and drawn on the basis of theoretical analyses and quantitative models that assume exogenous technological change. One is naturally led to wonder whether those conclusions and policy prescriptions hold in the more realistic case of endogenously evolving technologies. In previous work we took a popular integrated assessment model and modified it so as to allow for an explicit role of the stock of knowledge which accumulates through R and D investment. In our formulation knowledge affects both the output production technology and the emission-output ratio. In this paper we make further progress in our efforts aimed to model the process of technological change. In keeping with recent theories of endogenous growth, we specify two ways in which knowledge accumulates: via a deliberate, optimally selected R and D decision or via experience, giving rise to Learning by Doing. As an illustration, we simulate the model under the two versions of endogenous technical change and look at the dynamics of a selected number of relevant variables, including growth rates of GDP and physical capital, as well as total emissions and rate of domestic abatement. Keywords: Climate Policy, Environmental Modeling, Integrated Assessment, Technical Change

  6. Modelling and simulation of containment on full scope simulator for Qinshan 300 MW Nuclear Power Unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zou Tingyun

    1996-01-01

    A multi-node containment thermal-hydraulic model has been developed and adapted in Full Scope Simulator for Qinshan 300 MW Nuclear Power Unit with good realtime simulation effects. Containment pressure for LBLOCA calculated by the model is well agreed with those of CONTEMPT-4/MOD3

  7. Modelling issues on climate change policies. A discussion of the GTAP-E model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kremers, H.; Nijkamp, P.; Wang, Shunli

    2000-01-01

    Ater the Kyoto agreements the need has arisen to trace the implications of various international environmental strategies. In this paper, we discuss relevant modelling issues of incorporating important environmental policy measures in one of the popular applied general equilibrium models for international trade, the so-called GTAP model. Special attention is paid to an extended version, the GTAP-E (Global Trade Analysis Project - Energy) by addressing the question how to include the widely discussed instruments of International Emission Trading, Joint Implementation, and Clean Development Mechanisms. The paper will be concluded with some policy issues. 10 refs

  8. Medical simulation: Overview, and application to wound modelling and management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinker R Pai

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Simulation in medical education is progressing in leaps and bounds. The need for simulation in medical education and training is increasing because of a overall increase in the number of medical students vis-à-vis the availability of patients; b increasing awareness among patients of their rights and consequent increase in litigations and c tremendous improvement in simulation technology which makes simulation more and more realistic. Simulation in wound care can be divided into use of simulation in wound modelling (to test the effect of projectiles on the body and simulation for training in wound management. Though this science is still in its infancy, more and more researchers are now devising both low-technology and high-technology (virtual reality simulators in this field. It is believed that simulator training will eventually translate into better wound care in real patients, though this will be the subject of further research.

  9. Policy options and their potential effects on Moroccan small farmers and the poor facing increased world food prices: A general equilibrium model analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Diao, Xinshen; Doukkali, Rachid; Yu, Bingxin

    2008-01-01

    "This study evaluates the potential impact of the recent rise in world food prices on the Moroccan economy and possible policy options to respond to it. The study focuses mainly on the poverty effects of such an external shock and the possible policy responses to it. A new social accounting matrix (SAM) and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model have been developed for this study based on micro-level data in combination with sectoral and economywide data. The CGE model simulations show ...

  10. SD simulation study on degraded farmland policy on farming-pastoral area under the constrains of water resources-Taking Tongliao City of Inner Mongolia as example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, D. P.; Zhao, B.; Li, T. S.; Zhu, J. W.; Yu, M. M.

    2017-08-01

    Water resources are the primary factor in restricting the sustainable development of farming-pastoral regions. To support the sustainable development of water resources, whether or not the land uses patterns of farming-pastoral areas is a reasonably important issue. This paper takes Tongliao city as example for the purpose of sustainably developing the farming-pastoral area in the north. Several scientific preductions and evaluations were conducted to study the farming-pastoral landuse pattern, which is the key problem that effects sustainable development of farming-pastoral areas. The paper then proposes that 1:7 landuse pattern is suitable for the sustainable development of farming-pastotal area. Based on the analysis of the research findings on sustainable development of farming-pastoral area, the paper established a suitability evaluation indicators system of degraded farmland policies in Tongliao city, and used an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to determine the weight to run system dynamic (SD) model. The simulation results were then obtained on social economic ecological development in Tongliao city under different degraded farmland policies, and used the comprehensive evaluation model to optimize the results. It is concluded that stabilizing the policy of degraded farmland policy is the preferential policy in Tongliao, which provides useful theoretical research for the sustainable development of farming-pastoral area.

  11. Digital Aquifer - Integrating modeling, technical, software and policy aspects to develop a groundwater management tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tirupathi, S.; McKenna, S. A.; Fleming, K.; Wambua, M.; Waweru, P.; Ondula, E.

    2016-12-01

    Groundwater management has traditionally been observed as a study for long term policy measures to ensure that the water resource is sustainable. IBM Research, in association with the World Bank, extended this traditional analysis to include realtime groundwater management by building a context-aware, water rights management and permitting system. As part of this effort, one of the primary objectives was to develop a groundwater flow model that can help the policy makers with a visual overview of the current groundwater distribution. In addition, the system helps the policy makers simulate a range of scenarios and check the sustainability of the groundwater resource in a given region. The system also enables a license provider to check the effect of the introduction of a new well on the existing wells in the domain as well as the groundwater resource in general. This process simplifies how an engineer will determine if a new well should be approved. Distance to the nearest well neighbors and the maximum decreases in water levels of nearby wells are continually assessed and presented as evidence for an engineer to make the final judgment on approving the permit. The system also facilitates updated insights on the amount of groundwater left in an area and provides advice on how water fees should be structured to balance conservation and economic development goals. In this talk, we will discuss the concept of Digital Aquifer, the challenges in integrating modeling, technical and software aspects to develop a management system that helps policy makers and license providers with a robust decision making tool. We will concentrate on the groundwater model developed using the analytic element method that plays a very important role in the decision making aspects. Finally, the efficiency of this system and methodology is shown through a case study in Laguna Province, Philippines, which was done in collaboration with the National Water Resource Board, Philippines and World

  12. Development of a dynamic model to evaluate economic recovery following a nuclear attack. Volume 1. Description and simulations. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.W.; Silverman, W.S.; Weil, H.B.; Willard, S.

    1980-11-01

    A highly-robust, dynamic simulation model of the US economy has been constructed to evaluate the likely economic response after various nuclear attacks or other severe disruptions, under various policies and assumptions. The model consists of a large system of nonlinear, recursive, time-difference equations. The solution-interval of the model is adjustable, with a maximum value of three weeks. The model represents the economy in thirteen sectors. Each sector contains a detailed representation of production, distribution, supply constraints, finance, employment, pricing, and wages. Also included are a full input-output representation of the interconnections among the sectors, and the psychological responses of corporate planners, consumers, and the labor force. The model's equations are formulated to remain consistent and realistic for all values of the variables, including the most extreme conditions. Therefore, the model can realistically simulate any degree or time sequence of nuclear attacks, pre-attack surges, mobilization, or policy shifts. Simulation experiments with the model suggest that the economy is highly vulnerable to nuclear attack, and that recovery requires extensive preparation, including psychological readiness, technology maintenance, special financial policies, and (if possible) maintenance of foreign trade. Civil defense policies must be adaptive (contingent on the nature of the damage) and must strive for balance among sectors, rather than maximum survival. This volume includes two appendices. Appendix A defines the aggregation of the model. Appendix B outlines the range of attack scenarios, pre-attack civil defense policies, and post-attack civil defense policies that can be evaluated with the model, including the model variables applicable to implementing those policies

  13. Vehicle Modeling for Future Generation Transportation Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-05-10

    Recent development of inter-vehicular wireless communication technologies have motivated many innovative applications aiming at significantly increasing traffic throughput and improving highway safety. Powerful traffic simulation is an indispensable ...

  14. Stochastic models to simulate paratuberculosis in dairy herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Saxmose; Weber, M.F.; Kudahl, Anne Margrethe Braad

    2011-01-01

    Stochastic simulation models are widely accepted as a means of assessing the impact of changes in daily management and the control of different diseases, such as paratuberculosis, in dairy herds. This paper summarises and discusses the assumptions of four stochastic simulation models and their use...... the models are somewhat different in their underlying principles and do put slightly different values on the different strategies, their overall findings are similar. Therefore, simulation models may be useful in planning paratuberculosis strategies in dairy herds, although as with all models caution...

  15. Integrated Biosphere Simulator Model (IBIS), Version 2.5

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (or IBIS) is designed to be a comprehensive model of the terrestrial biosphere. Tthe model represents a wide range of...

  16. A simulation model for forecasting downhill ski participation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel J. Stynes; Daniel M. Spotts

    1980-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to describe progress in the development of a general computer simulation model to forecast future levels of outdoor recreation participation. The model is applied and tested for downhill skiing in Michigan.

  17. Integrated Biosphere Simulator Model (IBIS), Version 2.5

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (or IBIS) is designed to be a comprehensive model of the terrestrial biosphere. Tthe model represents a wide range of processes,...

  18. Use of queue modelling in the analysis of elective patient treatment governed by a maximum waiting time policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kozlowski, Dawid; Worthington, Dave

    2015-01-01

    Many public healthcare systems struggle with excessive waiting lists for elective patient treatment. Different countries address this problem in different ways, and one interesting method entails a maximum waiting time guarantee. Introduced in Denmark in 2002, it entitles patients to treatment...... chain and discrete event simulation models, to provide an insightful analysis of the public hospital performance under the policy rules. The aim of this paper is to support the enhancement of the quality of elective patient care, to be brought about by better understanding of the policy implications...

  19. Simulation-based modeling of building complexes construction management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepelev, Aleksandr; Severova, Galina; Potashova, Irina

    2018-03-01

    The study reported here examines the experience in the development and implementation of business simulation games based on network planning and management of high-rise construction. Appropriate network models of different types and levels of detail have been developed; a simulation model including 51 blocks (11 stages combined in 4 units) is proposed.

  20. Analyzing Interaction Patterns to Verify a Simulation/Game Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Rodney Dean

    2012-01-01

    In order for simulations and games to be effective for learning, instructional designers must verify that the underlying computational models being used have an appropriate degree of fidelity to the conceptual models of their real-world counterparts. A simulation/game that provides incorrect feedback is likely to promote misunderstanding and…

  1. Application of computer simulated persons in indoor environmental modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Topp, C.; Nielsen, P. V.; Sørensen, Dan Nørtoft

    2002-01-01

    Computer simulated persons are often applied when the indoor environment is modeled by computational fluid dynamics. The computer simulated persons differ in size, shape, and level of geometrical complexity, ranging from simple box or cylinder shaped heat sources to more humanlike models. Little...

  2. Software Requirements Specification Verifiable Fuel Cycle Simulation (VISION) Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D. E. Shropshire; W. H. West

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this Software Requirements Specification (SRS) is to define the top-level requirements for a Verifiable Fuel Cycle Simulation Model (VISION) of the Advanced Fuel Cycle (AFC). This simulation model is intended to serve a broad systems analysis and study tool applicable to work conducted as part of the AFCI (including costs estimates) and Generation IV reactor development studies

  3. Active site modeling in copper azurin molecular dynamics simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rizzuti, B; Swart, M; Sportelli, L; Guzzi, R

    Active site modeling in molecular dynamics simulations is investigated for the reduced state of copper azurin. Five simulation runs (5 ns each) were performed at room temperature to study the consequences of a mixed electrostatic/constrained modeling for the coordination between the metal and the

  4. New Simulation Models for Addressing Like X–Aircraft Responses ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    New Simulation Models for Addressing Like X–Aircraft Responses. AS Mohammed, SO Abdulkareem. Abstract. The original Monte Carlo model was previously modified for use in simulating data that conform to certain resource flow constraints. Recent encounters in communication and controls render these data absolute ...

  5. Experimental Design for Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2001-01-01

    This introductory tutorial gives a survey on the use of statistical designs for what if-or sensitivity analysis in simulation.This analysis uses regression analysis to approximate the input/output transformation that is implied by the simulation model; the resulting regression model is also known as

  6. Object Oriented Toolbox for Modelling and Simulation of Dynamic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Per Grove; Poulsen, Mikael Zebbelin; Wagner, Falko Jens

    1999-01-01

    Design and Implementation of a simulation toolbox based on Object Oriented modelling Techniques.Experimental implementation in C++ using the Godess ODE-solution platform.......Design and Implementation of a simulation toolbox based on Object Oriented modelling Techniques.Experimental implementation in C++ using the Godess ODE-solution platform....

  7. Model simulations of rainfall over southern Africa and its eastern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rainfall simulations over southern and tropical Africa in the form of low-resolution Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations and higher resolution National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis downscalings are presented and evaluated in this paper. The model used is the ...

  8. Development and Application of Econometric Models for Forecasting and Analysis of Monetary Policy Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Malugin, Vladimir; Demidenko , Mikhail; Kalechits, Dmitry; Miksjuk , Alexei; Tsukarev , Taras

    2009-01-01

    A system of econometric models designed for forecasting target monetary indicators as well as conducting monetary policy scenarios analysis is presented. The econometric models integrated in the system are represented in the error correction form and are interlinked by means of monetary policy instruments variables, common exogenous variables characterizing external shocks, and monetary policy target endogenous variables. Forecast accuracy estimates and monetary policy analysis results are pr...

  9. Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, A.; Jauch, Clemens; Soerensen, P.

    The present report describes the dynamic wind turbine models implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT. The developed models are a part of the results of a national research project, whose overall objective is to create a model database in different simulation tools. The report...... provides a description of the wind turbine modelling, both at a component level and at a system level....

  10. Application of system dynamics on nuclear policy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An, N. S.; Kim, J. C.; Kim, D. W.; Kang, S. C.

    2000-01-01

    A system dynamics model for a nuclear energy policy in Korea (SIMNEP) was developed to analyze the Korea nuclear system and to predict the influence of the nuclear energy policy in the future. Two cases were analyzed using SIMNEP. The first case is to see the effect of the occurrence of severe nuclear accident in foreign country on the Korean government support. In the beginning, the Korean government support drops but jump up to the higher value than normal support due to the intelligentsia support influenced by the delay time of perception. Then, the national government support converges to the normal support. This turns out that the intelligentsia support plays a major role in increasing the government support. The second case is to see the effect of prior efforts on the foreign factors and/or on domestic factors on the U.S. government support. In the short term, effort on the U.S. government is more effective to increase U.S. government support but in the long term (about after 5 years), efforts on the domestic factors influence on the U.S. government support more than efforts on the foreign factors. The Korean government counter reaction among the influencing factors on the U.S. government support plays a major role to explain this result

  11. A model for policy analysis of the greenhouse effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hope, C.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes the PAGE model (for Policy Analysis of the Greenhouse Effect), developed by Cambridge Decision Analysts for the Directorate general for Environment, Nuclear Safety and Civil Protection of the Commission of the European Communities. The rest of this section describes the motivation for developing PAGE; it is followed by sections outlining the features of PAGE, explaining its structure in more detail, and reporting some of the uses to which it is being put. The current consensus is that unchecked emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to a rise in global mean temperature. The causal chain from emissions to temperature is complex, and current estimates give a range of 2 - 5 deg C for the temperature rise by the year 2100 if no specific actions are taken to control emissions. The damage that a global temperature rise of a few degrees over a century would cause is also not well known. Some influential groups are sufficiently alarmed to have called for global agreements to stabilize or reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases. Others claim that the costs of doing so would not be justified, and that adapting to a changed climate would be the best policy. Negotiations are further complicated by the global nature of the problem; if a country, or even a major trading block such as the European Community, decided to control emissions of a greenhouse gas, some of the benefit would be gained in other parts of the world that have not shared in the cost of control. 12 refs., 6 figs

  12. FOSSIL2 energy policy model documentation: FOSSIL2 documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1980-10-01

    This report discusses the structure, derivations, assumptions, and mathematical formulation of the FOSSIL2 model. Each major facet of the model - supply/demand interactions, industry financing, and production - has been designed to parallel closely the actual cause/effect relationships determining the behavior of the United States energy system. The data base for the FOSSIL2 program is large, as is appropriate for a system dynamics simulation model. When possible, all data were obtained from sources well known to experts in the energy field. Cost and resource estimates are based on DOE data whenever possible. This report presents the FOSSIL2 model at several levels. Volumes II and III of this report list the equations that comprise the FOSSIL2 model, along with variable definitions and a cross-reference list of the model variables. Volume II provides the model equations with each of their variables defined, while Volume III lists the equations, and a one line definition for equations, in a shorter, more readable format.

  13. Coupled Monte Carlo simulation and Copula theory for uncertainty analysis of multiphase flow simulation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Xue; Na, Jin; Lu, Wenxi; Zhang, Yu

    2017-11-01

    Simulation-optimization techniques are effective in identifying an optimal remediation strategy. Simulation models with uncertainty, primarily in the form of parameter uncertainty with different degrees of correlation, influence the reliability of the optimal remediation strategy. In this study, a coupled Monte Carlo simulation and Copula theory is proposed for uncertainty analysis of a simulation model when parameters are correlated. Using the self-adaptive weight particle swarm optimization Kriging method, a surrogate model was constructed to replace the simulation model and reduce the computational burden and time consumption resulting from repeated and multiple Monte Carlo simulations. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) were employed to identify whether the t Copula function or the Gaussian Copula is the optimal Copula function to match the relevant structure of the parameters. The results show that both the AIC and BIC values of the t Copula function are less than those of the Gaussian Copula function. This indicates that the t Copula function is the optimal function for matching the relevant structure of the parameters. The outputs of the simulation model when parameter correlation was considered and when it was ignored were compared. The results show that the amplitude of the fluctuation interval when parameter correlation was considered is less than the corresponding amplitude when parameter estimation was ignored. Moreover, it was demonstrated that considering the correlation among parameters is essential for uncertainty analysis of a simulation model, and the results of uncertainty analysis should be incorporated into the remediation strategy optimization process.

  14. Reconciling uncertainties in integrated science and policy models: Applications to global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kandlikar, Milind [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    1994-12-01

    In this thesis tools of data reconciliation are used to integrate available information into scientific and policy models of greenhouse gases. The role of uncertainties in scientific and policy models of global climate change is examined, and implications for global change policy are drawn. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. Global sources and sinks of methane have significant uncertainties. A chance constrained methodology was developed and used to perform inversions on the global methane cycle. Budgets of methane that are consistent with source fluxes, isotopic and ice core measurements were determined. While it is not possible to come up with a single budget for CH{sub 4}, performing the calculation with a number of sets of assumed priors suggests a convergence in the allowed range for sources. In some cases -- wetlands (70-130 Tg/yr), rice paddies (60-125 Tg/yr) a significant reduction in the uncertainty of the source estimate is achieved. Our results compare favorably with the most recent measurements of flux estimates. For comparison, a similar analysis using bayes monte carlo simulation was performed. The question of the missing sink for carbon remains unresolved. Two analyses that attempt to quantify the missing sink were performed. First, a steady state analysis of the carbon cycle was used to determine the pre-industrial inter-hemispheric carbon concentration gradient. Second, a full blown dynamic inversion of the carbon cycle was performed. An advection diffusion ocean model with surface chemistry, coupled to box models of the atmosphere and the biosphere was inverted to fit available measurements of {sup 12}C and {sup 14}C carbon isotopes using Differential-Algebraic Optimization. The model effectively suggests that the {open_quotes}missing{close_quotes} sink for carbon is hiding in the biosphere. Scenario dependent trace gas indices were calculated for CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, HCFC-22.

  15. Six challenges in modelling for public health policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.J.E. Metcalf

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The World Health Organisation's definition of public health refers to all organized measures to prevent disease, promote health, and prolong life among the population as a whole (World Health Organization, 2014. Mathematical modelling plays an increasingly important role in helping to guide the most high impact and cost-effective means of achieving these goals. Public health programmes are usually implemented over a long period of time with broad benefits to many in the community. Clinical trials are seldom large enough to capture these effects. Observational data may be used to evaluate a programme after it is underway, but have limited value in helping to predict the future impact of a proposed policy. Furthermore, public health practitioners are often required to respond to new threats, for which there is little or no previous data on which to assess the threat. Computational and mathematical models can help to assess potential threats and impacts early in the process, and later aid in interpreting data from complex and multifactorial systems. As such, these models can be critical tools in guiding public health action. However, there are a number of challenges in achieving a successful interface between modelling and public health. Here, we discuss some of these challenges.

  16. Six challenges in modelling for public health policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalf, C J E; Edmunds, W J; Lessler, J

    2015-03-01

    The World Health Organisation's definition of public health refers to all organized measures to prevent disease, promote health, and prolong life among the population as a whole (World Health Organization, 2014). Mathematical modelling plays an increasingly important role in helping to guide the most high impact and cost-effective means of achieving these goals. Public health programmes are usually implemented over a long period of time with broad benefits to many in the community. Clinical trials are seldom large enough to capture these effects. Observational data may be used to evaluate a programme after it is underway, but have limited value in helping to predict the future impact of a proposed policy. Furthermore, public health practitioners are often required to respond to new threats, for which there is little or no previous data on which to assess the threat. Computational and mathematical models can help to assess potential threats and impacts early in the process, and later aid in interpreting data from complex and multifactorial systems. As such, these models can be critical tools in guiding public health action. However, there are a number of challenges in achieving a successful interface between modelling and public health. Here, we discuss some of these challenges. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Cooperatif Learning Models Simulation : From Abstract to Concrete

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agustini Ketut

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to develop a simulation of cooperative learning model that used students as prospective teachers in improving the quality of learning, especially for preparedness in the classroom of the microteaching learning. A wider range of outcomes can be used more widely by teachers and lecturers in order to improve the professionalism as educators. The method used is research and development (R&D, using Dick & Carey development model. To produce as expected, there are several steps that must be done through global research, among others, do steps (a conduct in-depth theoretical study related to the simulation software that will be generated based on cooperative learning models to be developed , (b formulate figure simulation software system is based on the results of theoretical study and (c conduct a formative evaluation is done by content expert, design expert, and media expert to the validity of the simulation media, one to one student evaluation, small group evaluation and field trial evaluation. Simulation results showed that the Cooperative Learning Model can simulated three models by well. Student response through the simulation models is very positive by 60 % and 40% positive. The implication of this research result is that student of teacher candidate can apply cooperative learning model well when teaching real in training school hence student need to be given real simulation example how cooperative learning is implemented in class.

  18. The duopoly policy in the Brazilian model of telecommunications reform

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    César Mattos

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the important characteristics of the Brazilian Model of Telecommunications Reform (BMTR was the adoption of a duopoly policy, constraining the entry of new players in the wire segment in the transitional phase until free competition in 2002. This policy was also used in the reform experience of the United Kingdom in telecommunications in the 80's. The theoretical explanations behind this kind of policy are not strong enough to justify the duopoly policy in telecommunications. The most plausible idea rests on the prominent role conferred to privatization revenues in the design of the reform as a means of helping the efforts to consolidate price stabilization in the country. We introduce a model with the trade-offs between competition, duplication of fixed costs and privatization revenues. Despite the importance of fixed costs in the objective function of the regulator, we show that the privatization revenue target is the aspect, which justifies the imposition of entry constraints. The British experience shows that the sacrifice of this kind of policy regarding efficiency in the long run can be substantial.Uma das características mais importantes do Modelo Brasileiro de Reforma das Telecomunicações foi a adoção de uma política de duopólio, restringindo a entrada de novas empresas no segmento de telefonia fixa durante a fase de transição até a livre concorrência a ser adotada a partir de 2002. Essa política foi também utilizada na experiência de reforma das telecomunicações ocorrida no Reino Unido na década de 80. As explicações teóricas para justificar a adoção deste tipo de política não são satisfatórias o suficiente para justificar a política de duopólio como prescrição de política nas telecomunicações. A idéia mais plausível se baseia no papel proeminente conferido às receitas de privatização no desenho da reforma como forma de auxiliar os esforços de consolidação da estabilização de preços no

  19. The Dutch sustainable building policy: A model for developing countries?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melchert, Luciana [Faculty of Architecture and Urbanism, University of Sao Paulo, Rua do Lago, 876, CEP 05508.900, Sao Paulo SP (Brazil)

    2007-02-15

    This article explores the institutionalization of environmental policies in the Dutch building sector and the applicability of the current model to developing countries. First, it analyzes the transition of sustainable building practices in the Netherlands from the 1970s until today, exploring how these were originally embedded in a discourse on 'de-modernization', which attempted to improve the environmental performance of building stocks by means of self-sufficient technologies, whereas nowadays they adopt a framework of 'ecological modernization', with integrative approaches seeking to improve the environmental performance of building stocks through more efficient-rather than self-sufficient-technologies. The study subsequently shows how the current Dutch sustainable building framework has thereby managed to achieve a pragmatic and widely accepted rationale, which can serve to orient the ecological restructuring of building stocks in developing countries. (author)

  20. Clearing the air. Air quality modelling for policy support

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendriks, C.

    2017-01-01

    The studies presented in this thesis were performed to provide policy makers with more accurate information about the sources of air pollution and the possible consequences of future developments on air quality. This enables policy makers to make better informed decisions when formulating policies

  1. A Dynamic Linear Modeling Approach to Public Policy Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loftis, Matthew; Mortensen, Peter Bjerre

    2017-01-01

    policy. The paper offers a detailed exposition of the DLM approach and illustrates its usefulness with a time series analysis of U.S. defense policy from 1957-2010. The results point the way for a new attention to dynamics in the policy process and the paper concludes with a discussion of how...

  2. MOVES (MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION SIMULATOR) MODEL ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    A computer model, intended to eventually replace the MOBILE model and to incorporate the NONROAD model, that will provide the ability to estimate criteria and toxic air pollutant emission factors and emission inventories that are specific to the areas and time periods of interest, at scales ranging from local to national. Development of a new emission factor and inventory model for mobile source emissions. The model will be used by air pollution modelers within EPA, and at the State and local levels.

  3. Induction generator models in dynamic simulation tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Hans; Akhmatov, Vladislav

    1999-01-01

    For AC network with large amount of induction generators (windmills) the paper demonstrates a significant discrepancy in the simulated voltage recovery after fault in weak networks when comparing dynamic and transient stability descriptions and the reasons of discrepancies are explained. It is fo......For AC network with large amount of induction generators (windmills) the paper demonstrates a significant discrepancy in the simulated voltage recovery after fault in weak networks when comparing dynamic and transient stability descriptions and the reasons of discrepancies are explained...... to a tunny generator through a shaft....

  4. Optical modeling and simulation of thin-film photovoltaic devices

    CERN Document Server

    Krc, Janez

    2013-01-01

    In wafer-based and thin-film photovoltaic (PV) devices, the management of light is a crucial aspect of optimization since trapping sunlight in active parts of PV devices is essential for efficient energy conversions. Optical modeling and simulation enable efficient analysis and optimization of the optical situation in optoelectronic and PV devices. Optical Modeling and Simulation of Thin-Film Photovoltaic Devices provides readers with a thorough guide to performing optical modeling and simulations of thin-film solar cells and PV modules. It offers insight on examples of existing optical models

  5. The invaluable benefits of modeling and simulation in our lives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lorencez, C., E-mail: carlos.lorencez@opg.com [Ontario Power Generation, Nuclear Safety Div., Pickering, Ontario (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    'Full text:' In general terms, we associate the words 'modeling and simulation' with semi-ideal mathematical models reproducing complex Engineering problems. However, the use of modeling and simulation is much more extensive than that: it is applied on a daily basis in almost every front of Science, from sociology and biology to climate change, medicine, robotics, war strategies, etc. It is also being applied by our frontal lobe when we make decisions. The results of these exercises on modeling and simulation have had invaluable benefits on our well being, and we are just at the beginning. (author)

  6. The invaluable benefits of modeling and simulation in our lives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorencez, C.

    2015-01-01

    'Full text:' In general terms, we associate the words 'modeling and simulation' with semi-ideal mathematical models reproducing complex Engineering problems. However, the use of modeling and simulation is much more extensive than that: it is applied on a daily basis in almost every front of Science, from sociology and biology to climate change, medicine, robotics, war strategies, etc. It is also being applied by our frontal lobe when we make decisions. The results of these exercises on modeling and simulation have had invaluable benefits on our well being, and we are just at the beginning. (author)

  7. Design of Soil Salinity Policies with Tinamit, a Flexible and Rapid Tool to Couple Stakeholder-Built System Dynamics Models with Physically-Based Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malard, J. J.; Baig, A. I.; Hassanzadeh, E.; Adamowski, J. F.; Tuy, H.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.

    2016-12-01

    Model coupling is a crucial step to constructing many environmental models, as it allows for the integration of independently-built models representing different system sub-components to simulate the entire system. Model coupling has been of particular interest in combining socioeconomic System Dynamics (SD) models, whose visual interface facilitates their direct use by stakeholders, with more complex physically-based models of the environmental system. However, model coupling processes are often cumbersome and inflexible and require extensive programming knowledge, limiting their potential for continued use by stakeholders in policy design and analysis after the end of the project. Here, we present Tinamit, a flexible Python-based model-coupling software tool whose easy-to-use API and graphical user interface make the coupling of stakeholder-built SD models with physically-based models rapid, flexible and simple for users with limited to no coding knowledge. The flexibility of the system allows end users to modify the SD model as well as the linking variables between the two models themselves with no need for recoding. We use Tinamit to couple a stakeholder-built socioeconomic model of soil salinization in Pakistan with the physically-based soil salinity model SAHYSMOD. As climate extremes increase in the region, policies to slow or reverse soil salinity buildup are increasing in urgency and must take both socioeconomic and biophysical spheres into account. We use the Tinamit-coupled model to test the impact of integrated policy options (economic and regulatory incentives to farmers) on soil salinity in the region in the face of future climate change scenarios. Use of the Tinamit model allowed for rapid and flexible coupling of the two models, allowing the end user to continue making model structure and policy changes. In addition, the clear interface (in contrast to most model coupling code) makes the final coupled model easily accessible to stakeholders with

  8. Dynamic models of staged gasification processes. Documentation of gasification simulator; Dynamiske modeller a f trinopdelte forgasningsprocesser. Dokumentation til forgasser simulator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-02-15

    In connection with the ERP project 'Dynamic modelling of staged gasification processes' a gasification simulator has been constructed. The simulator consists of: a mathematical model of the gasification process developed at Technical University of Denmark, a user interface programme, IGSS, and a communication interface between the two programmes. (BA)

  9. A study for production simulation model generation system based on data model at a shipyard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myung-Gi Back

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Simulation technology is a type of shipbuilding product lifecycle management solution used to support production planning or decision-making. Normally, most shipbuilding processes are consisted of job shop production, and the modeling and simulation require professional skills and experience on shipbuilding. For these reasons, many shipbuilding companies have difficulties adapting simulation systems, regardless of the necessity for the technology. In this paper, the data model for shipyard production simulation model generation was defined by analyzing the iterative simulation modeling procedure. The shipyard production simulation data model defined in this study contains the information necessary for the conventional simulation modeling procedure and can serve as a basis for simulation model generation. The efficacy of the developed system was validated by applying it to the simulation model generation of the panel block production line. By implementing the initial simulation model generation process, which was performed in the past with a simulation modeler, the proposed system substantially reduced the modeling time. In addition, by reducing the difficulties posed by different modeler-dependent generation methods, the proposed system makes the standardization of the simulation model quality possible.

  10. Dissolving decision making? Models and their roles in decision-making processes and policy at large.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, Stans

    2014-12-01

    This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making. Attention is paid to three aspects of the wider context of the models: a) the history of the construction process; b) (changes in) the political and scientific environments; and c) the use in policy processes over longer periods of time. Models are more successfully used when they are constructed in a stable political and scientific environment. Stability and certainty within a scientific field seems to be a key predictor for the usefulness of models for policy making. The economic model is more disputed than the ecology-based model and the model that has its theoretical foundation in physics and chemistry. The roles models play in policy processes are too complex to be considered as straightforward technocratic powers.

  11. Application of Hidden Markov Models in Biomolecular Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Saurabh; Shamsi, Zahra; Moffett, Alexander S; Selvam, Balaji; Shukla, Diwakar

    2017-01-01

    Hidden Markov models (HMMs) provide a framework to analyze large trajectories of biomolecular simulation datasets. HMMs decompose the conformational space of a biological molecule into finite number of states that interconvert among each other with certain rates. HMMs simplify long timescale trajectories for human comprehension, and allow comparison of simulations with experimental data. In this chapter, we provide an overview of building HMMs for analyzing bimolecular simulation datasets. We demonstrate the procedure for building a Hidden Markov model for Met-enkephalin peptide simulation dataset and compare the timescales of the process.

  12. A View on Future Building System Modeling and Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wetter, Michael

    2011-04-01

    This chapter presents what a future environment for building system modeling and simulation may look like. As buildings continue to require increased performance and better comfort, their energy and control systems are becoming more integrated and complex. We therefore focus in this chapter on the modeling, simulation and analysis of building energy and control systems. Such systems can be classified as heterogeneous systems because they involve multiple domains, such as thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, heat and mass transfer, electrical systems, control systems and communication systems. Also, they typically involve multiple temporal and spatial scales, and their evolution can be described by coupled differential equations, discrete equations and events. Modeling and simulating such systems requires a higher level of abstraction and modularisation to manage the increased complexity compared to what is used in today's building simulation programs. Therefore, the trend towards more integrated building systems is likely to be a driving force for changing the status quo of today's building simulation programs. Thischapter discusses evolving modeling requirements and outlines a path toward a future environment for modeling and simulation of heterogeneous building systems.A range of topics that would require many additional pages of discussion has been omitted. Examples include computational fluid dynamics for air and particle flow in and around buildings, people movement, daylight simulation, uncertainty propagation and optimisation methods for building design and controls. For different discussions and perspectives on the future of building modeling and simulation, we refer to Sahlin (2000), Augenbroe (2001) and Malkawi and Augenbroe (2004).

  13. Calibration of the simulation model of the VINCY cyclotron magnet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ćirković Saša

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The MERMAID program will be used to isochronise the nominal magnetic field of the VINCY Cyclotron. This program simulates the response, i. e. calculates the magnetic field, of a previously defined model of a magnet. The accuracy of 3D field calculation depends on the density of the grid points in the simulation model grid. The size of the VINCY Cyclotron and the maximum number of grid points in the XY plane limited by MERMAID define the maximumobtainable accuracy of field calculations. Comparisons of the field simulated with maximum obtainable accuracy with the magnetic field measured in the first phase of the VINCY Cyclotron magnetic field measurements campaign has shown that the difference between these two fields is not as small as required. Further decrease of the difference between these fields is obtained by the simulation model calibration, i. e. by adjusting the current through the main coils in the simulation model.

  14. Methodology of modeling and measuring computer architectures for plasma simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L. P. T.

    1977-01-01

    A brief introduction to plasma simulation using computers and the difficulties on currently available computers is given. Through the use of an analyzing and measuring methodology - SARA, the control flow and data flow of a particle simulation model REM2-1/2D are exemplified. After recursive refinements the total execution time may be greatly shortened and a fully parallel data flow can be obtained. From this data flow, a matched computer architecture or organization could be configured to achieve the computation bound of an application problem. A sequential type simulation model, an array/pipeline type simulation model, and a fully parallel simulation model of a code REM2-1/2D are proposed and analyzed. This methodology can be applied to other application problems which have implicitly parallel nature.

  15. Modeling and simulation of Indus-2 RF feedback control system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, D.; Bagduwal, P.S.; Tiwari, N.; Lad, M.; Hannurkar, P.R.

    2012-01-01

    Indus-2 synchrotron radiation source has four RF stations along with their feedback control systems. For higher beam energy and current operation amplitude and phase feedback control systems of Indus-2 are being upgraded. To understand the behaviour of amplitude and phase control loop under different operating conditions, modelling and simulation of RF feedback control system is done. RF cavity baseband I/Q model has been created due to its close correspondence with actual implementation and better computational efficiency which makes the simulation faster. Correspondence between cavity baseband and RF model is confirmed by comparing their simulation results. Low Level RF (LLRF) feedback control system simulation is done using the same cavity baseband I/Q model. Error signals are intentionally generated and response of the closed loop system is observed. Simulation will help us in optimizing parameters of upgraded LLRF system for higher beam energy and current operation. (author)

  16. MODELING AND SIMULATION OF INDUSTRIAL FORMALDEHYDE ABSORBERS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    WINKELMAN, JGM; SIJBRING, H; BEENACKERS, AACM; DEVRIES, ET

    1992-01-01

    The industrially important process of formaldehyde absorption in water constitutes a case of multicomponent mass transfer with multiple reactions and considerable heat effects. A stable solution algorithm is developed to simulate the performance of industrial absorbers for this process using a

  17. Modelling and simulation of surface water waves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Groesen, Embrecht W.C.; Westhuis, J.H.

    2002-01-01

    The evolution of waves on the surface of a layer of fluid is governed by non-linear effects from surface deformations and dispersive effects from the interaction with the interior fluid motion. Several simulation tools are described in this paper and compared with real life experiments in large

  18. Modeling of the maintenance policy of an offshore wind farm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maddens, L.; Labeau, P.E.

    2004-01-01

    Wind energy has a key position in the market of renewable electricity production means. Offshore wind farms offer additional surfaces to exploit this form of energy, together with more favourable wind conditions. Yet offshore windmills ask for higher investment and maintenance costs. Optimising the latter costs should therefore turn out to be particularly beneficial for this technology. The present paper summarizes the main modelling aspects of the maintenance of a typical offshore wind farm, such as the accessibility of the wind turbines and the impact of weather conditions, the cost of the different transport resources, the number of maintenance teams, a tolerated unavailability of part of the windmills, the opportunity to combine corrective and preventive maintenance actions on one or several windmills. All these features were embedded in a Petri net model of the maintenance policy of the farm, allowing to estimate the maintenance costs entailed by several strategies. Advantages and drawbacks of using Petri nets for the modelling of such a maintenance strategy are finally discussed. (authors)

  19. Model and simulation of Krause model in dynamic open network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Meixia; Xie, Guangqiang

    2017-08-01

    The construction of the concept of evolution is an effective way to reveal the formation of group consensus. This study is based on the modeling paradigm of the HK model (Hegsekmann-Krause). This paper analyzes the evolution of multi - agent opinion in dynamic open networks with member mobility. The results of the simulation show that when the number of agents is constant, the interval distribution of the initial distribution will affect the number of the final view, The greater the distribution of opinions, the more the number of views formed eventually; The trust threshold has a decisive effect on the number of views, and there is a negative correlation between the trust threshold and the number of opinions clusters. The higher the connectivity of the initial activity group, the more easily the subjective opinion in the evolution of opinion to achieve rapid convergence. The more open the network is more conducive to the unity of view, increase and reduce the number of agents will not affect the consistency of the group effect, but not conducive to stability.

  20. Strategic energy planning: Modelling and simulating energy market behaviours using system thinking and systems dynamics principles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papageorgiou, George Nathaniel

    2005-01-01

    In the face of limited energy reserves and the global warming phenomenon, Europe is undergoing a transition from rapidly depleting fossil fuels to renewable unconventional energy sources. During this transition period, energy shortfalls will occur and energy prices will be increasing in an oscillating manner. As a result of the turbulence and dynamicity that will accompany the transition period, energy analysts need new appropriate methods, techniques and tools in order to develop forecasts for the behaviour of energy markets, which would assist in the long term strategic energy planning and policy analysis. This paper reviews energy market behaviour as related to policy formation, and from a dynamic point of view through the use of ''systems thinking'' and ''system dynamics'' principles, provides a framework for modelling the energy production and consumption process in relation to their environment. Thereby, effective energy planning can be developed via computerised simulation using policy experimentation. In a demonstration model depicted in this paper, it is shown that disasters due to attractive policies can be avoided by using simple computer simulation. (Author)