Policy harmonized approach for the EU agricultural sector modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. SALPUTRA

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Policy harmonized (PH approach allows for the quantitative assessment of the impact of various elements of EU CAP direct support schemes, where the production effects of direct payments are accounted through reaction prices formed by producer price and policy price add-ons. Using the AGMEMOD model the impacts of two possible EU agricultural policy scenarios upon beef production have been analysed – full decoupling with a switch from historical to regional Single Payment scheme or alternatively with re-distribution of country direct payment envelopes via introduction of EU-wide flat area payment. The PH approach, by systematizing and harmonizing the management and use of policy data, ensures that projected differential policy impacts arising from changes in common EU policies reflect the likely actual differential impact as opposed to differences in how “common” policies are implemented within analytical models. In the second section of the paper the AGMEMOD model’s structure is explained. The policy harmonized evaluation method is presented in the third section. Results from an application of the PH approach are presented and discussed in the paper’s penultimate section, while section 5 concludes.;

The International Impact of US Unconventional Monetary Policy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lutz, Chandler

2015-01-01

Using a structural factor-augmented vector autoregression model and a large data set of daily time series, we study the impact of US unconventional monetary policy on British and German financial markets. Our findings indicate that a surprise US unconventional monetary policy easing leads...

An Economic Model of Brazil’s Ethanol-Sugar Markets and Impacts of Fuel Policies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Drabik, D.; Gorter, de H.; Just, D.R.; Timilsina, G.R.

2014-01-01

We develop an economic model of flex plants, export demands and two domestic fuel demand curves: E25, a 25 percent blend of ethanol with gasoline consumed by conventional cars, and E100, ethanol consumed only by flex cars. This allows us to analyze the market impacts of specific policies, namely the

A harmonized calculation model for transforming EU bottom-up energy efficiency indicators into empirical estimates of policy impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horowitz, Marvin J.; Bertoldi, Paolo

2015-01-01

This study is an impact analysis of European Union (EU) energy efficiency policy that employs both top-down energy consumption data and bottom-up energy efficiency statistics or indicators. As such, it may be considered a contribution to the effort called for in the EU's 2006 Energy Services Directive (ESD) to develop a harmonized calculation model. Although this study does not estimate the realized savings from individual policy measures, it does provide estimates of realized energy savings for energy efficiency policy measures in aggregate. Using fixed effects panel models, the annual cumulative savings in 2011 of combined household and manufacturing sector electricity and natural gas usage attributed to EU energy efficiency policies since 2000 is estimated to be 1136 PJ; the savings attributed to energy efficiency policies since 2006 is estimated to be 807 PJ, or the equivalent of 5.6% of 2011 EU energy consumption. As well as its contribution to energy efficiency policy analysis, this study adds to the development of methods that can improve the quality of information provided by standardized energy efficiency and sustainable resource indexes. - Highlights: • Impact analysis of European Union energy efficiency policy. • Harmonization of top-down energy consumption and bottom-up energy efficiency indicators. • Fixed effects models for Member States for household and manufacturing sectors and combined electricity and natural gas usage. • EU energy efficiency policies since 2000 are estimated to have saved 1136 Petajoules. • Energy savings attributed to energy efficiency policies since 2006 are 5.6 percent of 2011 combined electricity and natural gas usage.

The Regional Impact of Monetary Policy in Indonesia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ridhwan, M.M.; de Groot, H.L.F.; Rietveld, P.; Nijkamp, P.

2014-01-01

This paper employs vector autoregressive (VAR) models to measure the impact of monetary policy shocks on regional output in Indonesia. We find substantial cross-regional variation in policy responses in terms of both magnitude as well as timing. Our work adds to the existing literature by providing

The impact of monetary policy on New Zealand business cycles and inflation variability

OpenAIRE

Nathan McLellan; Robert A Buckle; Kunhong Kim

2004-01-01

This paper uses the open economy structural VAR model developed in Buckle, Kim, Kirkham, McLellan and Sharma (2002) to evaluate the impact of monetary policy on New Zealand business cycles and inflation variability and the output/inflation variability trade-off. The model includes a forward-looking Taylor Rule to identify monetary policy and the impact of monetary policy is evaluated by deriving a monetary policy index using a procedure suggested by Dungey and Pagan (2000). Monetary policy ha...

The Disparate Labor Market Impacts of Monetary Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Carpenter, Seth B.; Rodgers, William M., III

2004-01-01

Employing two widely used approaches to identify the effects of monetary policy, this paper explores the differential impact of policy on the labor market outcomes of teenagers, minorities, out-of-school youth, and less-skilled individuals. Evidence from recursive vector autoregressions and autoregressive distributed lag models that use…

Stimulating fuelwood consumption through public policies: An assessment of economic and resource impacts based on the French Forest Sector Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caurla, Sylvain; Delacote, Philippe; Lecocq, Franck; Barkaoui, Ahmed

2013-01-01

Stimulating renewable energy is a crucial objective in view of tackling climate change and coping with future fossil fuel scarcity. In France, fuelwood appears to be an important source for the renewable energy mix. Using the French Forest Sector Model, our paper aims to assess the impacts of three policy options to stimulate fuelwood consumption: a consumer subsidy, a producer subsidy and a fixed-demand contract policy. We explored their impacts in terms of five groups of criteria: (1) forest resource dynamics; (2) variations in wood products prices and quantities consumed and produced; (3) trade balance; (4) budgetary costs; and (5) variations in agent surpluses. We show that no policy option is more desirable than another on the basis of all of these criteria and that trade-offs will determine which is the best policy option to be implemented. - Highlights: • We compare the bio-economic impacts of policies to boost fuelwood consumption in France. • We simulate a producer subsidy, a consumer subsidy and fixed public demand contracts. • We explore their impacts until 2020 with a dynamic model of the forest sector. • Producer subsidy reduces the trade balance deficit and decreases forest stock. • Consumer subsidy increases consumer welfare and public contracts reduce budgetary costs

The Heterogeneous Impacts of Groundwater Management Policies in the Republican River Basin of Colorado

Science.gov (United States)

Hrozencik, R. A.; Manning, D. T.; Suter, J. F.; Goemans, C.; Bailey, R. T.

2017-12-01

Groundwater is a critical input to agricultural production across the globe. Current groundwater pumping rates frequently exceed recharge, often by a substantial amount, leading to groundwater depletion and potential declines in agricultural profits over time. As a result, many regions reliant on irrigated agriculture have proposed policies to manage groundwater use. Even when gains from aquifer management exist, there is little information about how policies affect individual producers sharing the resource. In this paper, we investigate the variability of groundwater management policy impacts across heterogeneous agricultural producers. To measure these impacts, we develop a hydroeconomic model that captures the important role of well capacity, productivity of water, and weather uncertainty. We use the model to simulate the impacts of groundwater management policies on producers in the High Plains aquifer of eastern Colorado and compare outcomes to a no-policy baseline. The management policies considered include a pumping fee, a quantity restriction, and an irrigated acreage fee. We find that well capacity and soil type affect policy impacts but in ways that can qualitatively differ across policy type. Model results have important implications for the distributional impacts and political acceptability of groundwater management policies.

The Impact of Funding Policies on Higher Education in Jamaica

Science.gov (United States)

Nkrumah-Young, Kofi K.; Huisman, Jeroen; Powell, Philip

2008-01-01

This paper analyses the changes in the higher education funding policies and resource allocation models of the Jamaican government in the period 1962-2003. Throughout these four decades, four different systems were in force. This paper focuses particularly on the arguments for the funding policies and models and the impact of the models on the…

Conceptual framework for describing selected urban and community impacts of federal energy policies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morris, F.A,; Marcus, A.A.; Keller, D.

1980-06-01

A conceptual framework is presented for describing selected urban and community impacts of Federal energy policies. The framework depends on a simple causal model. The outputs of the model are impacts, changes in the state of the world of particular interest to policymakers. At any given time, a set of determinants account for the state of the world with respect to an impact category. Application of the model to a particular impact category requires: establishing a definition and measure for the impact category and identifying the determinants of these impacts. Analysis of the impact of a particular policy requires the following: identifying the policy and its effects (as estimated by others), isolating any effects that themselves constitute an urban and community impact, identifying any effects that change the value of determinants, and describing the impact with reference to the new values of determinants. This report provides a framework for these steps. Three impacts addressed are: neighborhood stability, housing availability, and quality and availability of public services. In each chapter, a definition and measure for the impact are specified; its principal determinants are identified; how the causal model can be used to estimate impacts by applying it to three illustrative Federal policies (domestic oil price decontrol, building energy performance standards, and increased Federal aid for mass transit) is demonstrated. (MCW)

Contribution to the economic impact assessment of policy options to regulate animal cloning for food production with an economic simulation model

OpenAIRE

Koen Dillen; Emanuele Ferrari; Pascal Tillie; George Philippidis; Sophie Helaine

2013-01-01

The EU is currently evaluating different policy options towards the use of cloning or products derived from cloned animals in the food chain. This study presents a first attempt to quantify the likely effects of different policy scenarios on international trade and EU domestic production. In the context of the Impact Asessment process the JRC was requested to simulate via a modelling study the economic impact of selected policy options. Based on a literature review and the specific constra...

Ecological and economic impacts of forest policies: interactions across forestry and agriculture.

Science.gov (United States)

R.J. Alig; D.M. Adams; B.A. McCarl

1998-01-01

A linked model of the US forest and agriculture sectors was used to examine the economic and ecological impacts of two forest policies: a minimum harvest age limitation and a reduced public harvest policy. Simulated private responses to both policies indicate that landowners could undertake a range of adjustments to minimize their welfare impacts, but imposition of...

A dynamic simulation model for assessing the overall impact of incentive policies on power system reliability, costs and environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ibanez-Lopez, A.S.; Martinez-Val, J.M.; Moratilla-Soria, B.Y.

2017-01-01

The liberalization of power markets has entailed dramatic changes in power system planning worldwide. The inception of new alternative technologies, smart grids and distributed generation and storage is expected to make system planning even more challenging. Government policies still play a major role in the evolution of a country's power generation mix, even in those countries with liberalized markets. This paper presents a System Dynamics model aimed at assessing the overall technical, economic and environmental impact of renewable energy incentives and capacity payment policies. The model has been used to simulate Spain's power industry in order to assess the impact of electric power policies with the goal of getting insights regarding how to achieve an optimum power generation mix. The main conclusions of the present paper are (i) the necessity of specific regulatory actions in Spain in order to keep adequate reliability levels, avoid price spikes and boom and bust investment cycles as well as to deploy specific technologies, (ii) the fact that capacity payments are a better instrument for keeping adequate reserve margins and avoiding power price spikes than renewable energy incentives and (iii) the evidence that both instruments entail additional system costs over the base case scenario. - Highlights: • A System Dynamics model of Spain's power generation mix is proposed. • The overall policy impact on system costs, environment and reliability is assessed. • Current policies are not enough to keep adequate reliability levels. • Capacity payments are an adequate instrument for guaranteeing system reliability. • RES incentives do not solve reliability issues and entail greater system costs.

A comparison of Capri and SEAMLESS-IFas Integrated Modelling Systems, Chapter 11 in Environmental and Agricultural Modelling: Integrated Approaches for Policy Impact Assessement

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Britz, W.; Perez Dominguez, I.; Heckelei, T.

2010-01-01

SEAMLESS-IF and CAPRI are both integrated agricultural modelling systems for policy impact assessment at EU level, linking model components across scales and between the economic and bio-physical domains. However, the overall design, focus and representation of agricultural sub-systems vary between

Renewable heating: Perspectives and the impact of policy instruments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kranzl, Lukas; Hummel, Marcus; Müller, Andreas; Steinbach, Jan

2013-01-01

In the light of the EU directive for renewable energy (2009/28/EC) this paper deals with the question how various policy instruments could impact the development of renewable heating technologies. The paper applies the simulation model Invert/EE-Lab for the building related heat demand in selected European countries (Austria, Lithuania and United Kingdom). The resulting scenarios up to 2030 are compared to RES-Heat targets from literature, stakeholder consultation processes and the targets in the national renewable energy action plans submitted by EU Member States in 2010. The results demonstrate that use obligations for renewable heating can be effective in achieving RES-Heat market growth. However, in order to attain a balanced technology mix and more ambitious targets, policy packages are required combining use obligations with economic incentives and accompanying measures. Technology specific conclusions are derived. Moreover, conclusions indicate that the action plans are not always consistent with policy measures in place or under discussion. - Highlights: • Modeling of RES-Heat policies in the building sector. • Application of the model Invert/EE-Lab for the cases of AT, LT, UK. • RES-Heat use obligations are effective but should be integrated in policy packages. • The design of use obligations has substantial impact on the RES-H technology mix. • National renewable energy action plans are not always consistent with policies

Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making

OpenAIRE

R?muzat, C?cile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, ?sa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aball?a, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

2014-01-01

Background and objective: With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project ‘European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast’ – http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm).Methods: A model was built to assess policy sc...

Systems Thinking and Simulation Modeling to Inform Childhood Obesity Policy and Practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Powell, Kenneth E; Kibbe, Debra L; Ferencik, Rachel; Soderquist, Chris; Phillips, Mary Ann; Vall, Emily Anne; Minyard, Karen J

In 2007, 31.7% of Georgia adolescents in grades 9-12 were overweight or obese. Understanding the impact of policies and interventions on obesity prevalence among young people can help determine statewide public health and policy strategies. This article describes a systems model, originally launched in 2008 and updated in 2014, that simulates the impact of policy interventions on the prevalence of childhood obesity in Georgia through 2034. In 2008, using information from peer-reviewed reports and quantitative estimates by experts in childhood obesity, physical activity, nutrition, and health economics and policy, a group of legislators, legislative staff members, and experts trained in systems thinking and system dynamics modeling constructed a model simulating the impact of policy interventions on the prevalence of childhood obesity in Georgia through 2034. Use of the 2008 model contributed to passage of a bill requiring annual fitness testing of schoolchildren and stricter enforcement of physical education requirements. We updated the model in 2014. With no policy change, the updated model projects that the prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged ≤18 in Georgia would hold at 18% from 2014 through 2034. Mandating daily school physical education (which would reduce prevalence to 12%) and integrating moderate to vigorous physical activity into elementary classrooms (which would reduce prevalence to 10%) would have the largest projected impact. Enacting all policies simultaneously would lower the prevalence of childhood obesity from 18% to 3%. Systems thinking, especially with simulation models, facilitates understanding of complex health policy problems. Using a simulation model to educate legislators, educators, and health experts about the policies that have the greatest short- and long-term impact should encourage strategic investment in low-cost, high-return policies.

Economic Impact Assessment of Alternative Climate Policy Strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kemfert, C.

2001-10-01

This paper investigates the world economic implications of climate change policy strategies, especially the evaluation of impacts by an implementation of Clean Development Mechanisms, Joint Implementation and Emissions trading with a world integrated assessment model. Of special interest in this context are the welfare spill over and competitiveness effects that result from diverse climate policy strategies. In particular, this study elaborates and compares multi gas policy strategies and explores the impacts of the inclusion of sinks. Because of the recent decision of an isolated climate policy strategy by the United States of America, we examine the economic impacts of all world regions by a non cooperative and free rider position of the USA. It turns out that Clean Development Mechanisms and Joint Implementation show evidence of improvement in the economic development in the host countries and increase the share of new applied technologies. The decomposition of welfare effects demonstrates that the competitiveness effect including the spill over effects from trade have the strongest importance because of the intense trade relations between countries. Climatic effects have a significant impact within the next 50 years, cause considerable welfare losses to world regions and will intensify if some highly responsible nations like the USA do not reduce their emissions

Distributional impacts of state-level energy efficiency policies in regional electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sahraei-Ardakani, Mostafa; Blumsack, Seth; Kleit, Andrew

2012-01-01

A number of U.S. states have passed legislation targeting energy efficiency and peak demand reduction. We study one such state, Pennsylvania, within the context of PJM, a regional electricity market covering numerous different states. Our focus is on the distributive impacts of this policy—specifically how the policy is likely to impact electricity prices in different areas of Pennsylvania and in the PJM market more generally. Such spatial differences in policy impacts are difficult to model and the transmission system is often ignored in policy studies. Our model estimates supply curves on a “zonal” basis within regional electricity markets and yields information on price and fuel utilization within each zone. We use the zonal supply curves estimated by our model to study regional impacts of energy-efficiency legislation on utilities both inside and outside of Pennsylvania. For most utilities in Pennsylvania, it would reduce the influence of natural gas on electricity price formation and increase the influence of coal. It would also save 2.1 to 2.8 percent of total energy cost in Pennsylvania in a year similar to 2009. The savings are lower than 0.5 percent in other PJM states and the prices may slightly increase in Washington, DC area. - Highlights: ► We model distributional impacts of energy efficiency and conservation policies. ► We use our model to study the impacts of Pennsylvania act 129. ► We estimate $235 million in annual savings for PA and $275 million for PJM. ► The prices decrease in most of the zones but the impacts are not uniform. ► The influence of coal on electricity prices increases relative to natural gas.

Impact of different policies on unhealthy dietary behaviors in an urban adult population: an agent-based simulation model.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Donglan; Giabbanelli, Philippe J; Arah, Onyebuchi A; Zimmerman, Frederick J

2014-07-01

Unhealthy eating is a complex-system problem. We used agent-based modeling to examine the effects of different policies on unhealthy eating behaviors. We developed an agent-based simulation model to represent a synthetic population of adults in Pasadena, CA, and how they make dietary decisions. Data from the 2007 Food Attitudes and Behaviors Survey and other empirical studies were used to calibrate the parameters of the model. Simulations were performed to contrast the potential effects of various policies on the evolution of dietary decisions. Our model showed that a 20% increase in taxes on fast foods would lower the probability of fast-food consumption by 3 percentage points, whereas improving the visibility of positive social norms by 10%, either through community-based or mass-media campaigns, could improve the consumption of fruits and vegetables by 7 percentage points and lower fast-food consumption by 6 percentage points. Zoning policies had no significant impact. Interventions emphasizing healthy eating norms may be more effective than directly targeting food prices or regulating local food outlets. Agent-based modeling may be a useful tool for testing the population-level effects of various policies within complex systems.

Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2010 - part 1)

Science.gov (United States)

The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - integrated assessment modeling and valuation.

Evaluating the impact of strategic personnel policies using a MILP model: The public university case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Torre, R. de la; Lusa, A.; Mateo, M.

2016-01-01

Purpose: The main purpose of the paper is to evaluate the impact of diverse personnel policies around personnel promotion in the design of the strategic staff plan for a public university. The strategic staff planning consists in the determination of the size and composition of the workforce for an organization. Design/methodology/approach: The staff planning is solved using a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model. The MILP model represents the organizational structure of the university, the personnel categories and capacity decisions, the demand requirements, the required service level and budget restrictions. All these aspects are translated into a set of data, as well as the parameters and constraints building up the mathematical model for optimization. The required data for the model is adopted from a Spanish public university. Findings: The development of appropriate policies for personnel promotion can effectively reduce the number of dismissals while proposing a transition towards different preferable workforce structures in the university. Research limitations/implications: The long term staff plan for the university is solved by the MILP model considering a time horizon of 8 years. For this time horizon, the required input data is derived from current data of the university. Different scenarios are proposed considering different temporal trends for input data, such as in demand and admissible promotional ratios for workers. Originality/value: The literature review reports a lack of formalized procedures for staff planning in universities taking into account, at the same time, the regulations on hiring, dismissals, promotions and the workforce heterogeneity, all considered to optimize workforce size and composition addressing not only an economic criteria, but also the required workforce expertise and the quality in the service offered. This paper adopts a formalized procedure developed by the authors in previous works, and exploits it to assess the

Evaluating the impact of strategic personnel policies using a MILP model: The public university case

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Torre, R. de la; Lusa, A.; Mateo, M.

2016-07-01

Purpose: The main purpose of the paper is to evaluate the impact of diverse personnel policies around personnel promotion in the design of the strategic staff plan for a public university. The strategic staff planning consists in the determination of the size and composition of the workforce for an organization. Design/methodology/approach: The staff planning is solved using a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model. The MILP model represents the organizational structure of the university, the personnel categories and capacity decisions, the demand requirements, the required service level and budget restrictions. All these aspects are translated into a set of data, as well as the parameters and constraints building up the mathematical model for optimization. The required data for the model is adopted from a Spanish public university. Findings: The development of appropriate policies for personnel promotion can effectively reduce the number of dismissals while proposing a transition towards different preferable workforce structures in the university. Research limitations/implications: The long term staff plan for the university is solved by the MILP model considering a time horizon of 8 years. For this time horizon, the required input data is derived from current data of the university. Different scenarios are proposed considering different temporal trends for input data, such as in demand and admissible promotional ratios for workers. Originality/value: The literature review reports a lack of formalized procedures for staff planning in universities taking into account, at the same time, the regulations on hiring, dismissals, promotions and the workforce heterogeneity, all considered to optimize workforce size and composition addressing not only an economic criteria, but also the required workforce expertise and the quality in the service offered. This paper adopts a formalized procedure developed by the authors in previous works, and exploits it to assess the

Renewable energy investment: Policy and market impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reuter, Wolf Heinrich; Szolgayová, Jana; Fuss, Sabine; Obersteiner, Michael

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Feedback of decisions to the market: large companies can have an impact on prices in the market. ► Multiple uncertainties: analysis of uncertainties emanating from both markets and environment. ► Policy analysis: impact of uncertainty about the durability of feed-in tariffs. -- Abstract: The liberalization of electricity markets in recent years has enhanced competition among power-generating firms facing uncertain decisions of competitors and thus uncertain prices. At the same time, promoting renewable energy has been a key ingredient in energy policy seeking to de-carbonize the energy mix. Public incentives for companies to invest in renewable technologies range from feed-in tariffs, to investment subsidies, tax credits, portfolio requirements and certificate systems. We use a real options model in discrete time with lumpy multiple investments to analyze the decisions of an electricity producer to invest into new power generating capacity, to select the type of technology and to optimize its operation under price uncertainty and with market effects. We account for both the specific characteristics of renewables and the market effects of investment decisions. The prices are determined endogenously by the supply of electricity in the market and by exogenous electricity price uncertainty. The framework is used to analyze energy policy, as well as the reaction of producers to uncertainty in the political and regulatory framework. In this way, we are able to compare different policies to foster investment into renewables and analyze their impacts on the market.

Uncertainty and endogenous technical change in climate policy models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baker, Erin; Shittu, Ekundayo

2008-01-01

Until recently endogenous technical change and uncertainty have been modeled separately in climate policy models. In this paper, we review the emerging literature that considers both these elements together. Taken as a whole the literature indicates that explicitly including uncertainty has important quantitative and qualitative impacts on optimal climate change technology policy. (author)

Developing policy analytics for public health strategy and decisions-the Sheffield alcohol policy model framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Brennan, Alan; Meier, Petra; Purshouse, Robin; Rafia, Rachid; Meng, Yang; Hill-Macmanus, Daniel

This paper sets out the development of a methodological framework for detailed evaluation of public health strategies for alcohol harm reduction to meet UK policy-makers needs. Alcohol is known to cause substantial harms, and controlling its affordability and availability are effective policy options. Analysis and synthesis of a variety of public and commercial data sources is needed to evaluate impact on consumers, health services, crime, employers and industry, so a sound evaluation of impact is important. We discuss the iterative process to engage with stakeholders, identify evidence/data and develop analytic approaches and produce a final model structure. We set out a series of steps in modelling impact including: classification and definition of population subgroups of interest, identification and definition of harms and outcomes for inclusion, classification of modifiable components of risk and their baseline values, specification of the baseline position on policy variables especially prices, estimating effects of changing policy variables on risk factors including price elasticities, quantifying risk functions relating risk factors to harms including 47 health conditions, crimes, absenteeism and unemployment, and monetary valuation. The most difficult model structuring decisions are described, as well as the final results framework used to provide decision support to national level policymakers in the UK. In the discussion we explore issues around the relationship between modelling and policy debates, valuation and scope, limitations of evidence/data, how the framework can be adapted to other countries and decisions. We reflect on the approach taken and outline ongoing plans for further development.

Combination of equilibrium models and hybrid life cycle-input–output analysis to predict the environmental impacts of energy policy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Igos, Elorri; Rugani, Benedetto; Rege, Sameer; Benetto, Enrico; Drouet, Laurent; Zachary, Daniel S.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • The environmental impacts of two energy policy scenarios in Luxembourg are assessed. • Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Partial Equilibrium (PE) models are used. • Results from coupling of CGE and PE are integrated in hybrid Life Cycle Assessment. • Impacts due to energy related production and imports are likely to grow over time. • Carbon mitigation policies seem to not substantially decrease the impacts’ trend. - Abstract: Nowadays, many countries adopt an active agenda to mitigate the impact of greenhouse gas emissions by moving towards less polluting energy generation technologies. The environmental costs, directly or indirectly generated to achieve such a challenging objective, remain however largely underexplored. Until now, research has focused either on pure economic approaches such as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and partial equilibrium (PE) models, or on (physical) energy supply scenarios. These latter could be used to evaluate the environmental impacts of various energy saving or cleaner technologies via Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology. These modelling efforts have, however, been pursued in isolation, without exploring the possible complementarities and synergies. In this study, we have undertaken a practical combination of these approaches into a common framework: on the one hand, by coupling a CGE with a PE model, and, on the other hand, by linking the outcomes from the coupling with a hybrid input–output−process based life cycle inventory. The methodological framework aimed at assessing the environmental consequences of two energy policy scenarios in Luxembourg between 2010 and 2025. The study highlights the potential of coupling CGE and PE models but also the related methodological difficulties (e.g. small number of available technologies in Luxembourg, intrinsic limitations of the two approaches, etc.). The assessment shows both environmental synergies and trade-offs due to the implementation of

Equity Impacts of Environmental Policy

OpenAIRE

Antonio M. Bento

2013-01-01

This article surveys recent literature on the equity impacts of environmental policy. We focus on studies that look at the distribution of costs and benefits of alternative environmental policies. We also examine potentially important trade-offs between efficiency and equity that arise in the context of environmental policy, as well as transition effects. In many of the applications surveyed here, environmental policies can be regressive. Strategies are discussed to reduce this regressivity t...

Global climate change policies. An analysis of CDM policies with an adapted GTAP model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Shunli

2004-01-01

In the context of the relationships between spatial-economic interaction and global warming just discussed, this study aims to analyze the Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) policies from an economic point of view. The research question of this study is formulated as follows: What will be the impacts of clirnate change policies, in particular CDM policies, on the economic performance of (groups of) countries in our global economic system, taking spatial interaction and general equilibrium effects into account? The purpose of addressing the issue of economic performance for (groups of) countries in the economic system is not just to identify winners and losers from international treaties. Rather, winning or losing may even determine the implementation and willingness of individual countries to participate in international environmental treaties, as illustrated by the recent withdrawal of the US from the Kyoto Protocol. By analyzing the economic impacts of an international environmental treaty for individual (groups of) countries, the framework that will be used to analyze this research question may be useful to determine the attractiveness of some global environmental policies, both for the world as a whole and for individual (groups of) countries. The research question will be answered by dividing it into six subquestions: (1) What is the position of CDM policies in the broad context of climate policy regimes?; (2) How should the relationship between human behavior and the physical environment be ideally modeled from an economic perspective? (3) How should the spatial dimension be incorporated in this framework of interaction between the economic and ecological system?; (4) How can climate change issues be incorporated in general equilibrium models in general, and in GTAP-E (extension of the Global Trade Analysis Project) in particular?; (5) How can CDM policies be implemented in the GTAP-E model?; and (6) What are the impacts of these climate change policies on

THE SHEFFIELD ALCOHOL POLICY MODEL - A MATHEMATICAL DESCRIPTION.

Science.gov (United States)

Brennan, Alan; Meier, Petra; Purshouse, Robin; Rafia, Rachid; Meng, Yang; Hill-Macmanus, Daniel; Angus, Colin; Holmes, John

2014-09-30

This methodology paper sets out a mathematical description of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 2.0, a model to evaluate public health strategies for alcohol harm reduction in the UK. Policies that can be appraised include a minimum price per unit of alcohol, restrictions on price discounting, and broader public health measures. The model estimates the impact on consumers, health services, crime, employers, retailers and government tax revenues. The synthesis of public and commercial data sources to inform the model structure is described. A detailed algebraic description of the model is provided. This involves quantifying baseline levels of alcohol purchasing and consumption by age and gender subgroups, estimating the impact of policies on consumption, for example, using evidence on price elasticities of demand for alcohol, quantification of risk functions relating alcohol consumption to harms including 47 health conditions, crimes, absenteeism and unemployment, and finally monetary valuation of the consequences. The results framework, shown for a minimum price per unit of alcohol, has been used to provide policy appraisals for the UK government policy-makers. In discussion and online appendix, we explore issues around valuation and scope, limitations of evidence/data, how the framework can be adapted to other countries and decisions, and ongoing plans for further development. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Public R&D Policy Impact Evaluation:Propensity Score Matching and Structural Modeling Estimations

OpenAIRE

Ilbeigi, Alireza

2017-01-01

This dissertation is about public research and development (R&D) subsidies to support private firms doing innovative activities and quantitative impact evaluation of the policy on total factor productivity (TFP) change and additional R&D effort. Public R&D subsidization as a public R&D policy, beside different types of public interventions, has been widely used by governments to stimulate private R&D. These policies aim to fill the gap between the private and social rates of returns by encour...

Business-as-Unusual: Existing policies in energy model baselines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strachan, Neil

2011-01-01

Baselines are generally accepted as a key input assumption in long-term energy modelling, but energy models have traditionally been poor on identifying baselines assumptions. Notably, transparency on the current policy content of model baselines is now especially critical as long-term climate mitigation policies have been underway for a number of years. This paper argues that the range of existing energy and emissions policies are an integral part of any long-term baseline, and hence already represent a 'with-policy' baseline, termed here a Business-as-Unusual (BAuU). Crucially, existing energy policies are not a sunk effort; as impacts of existing policy initiatives are targeted at future years, they may be revised through iterative policy making, and their quantitative effectiveness requires ex-post verification. To assess the long-term role of existing policies in energy modelling, currently identified UK policies are explicitly stripped out of the UK MARKAL Elastic Demand (MED) optimisation energy system model, to generate a BAuU (with-policy) and a REF (without policy) baseline. In terms of long-term mitigation costs, policy-baseline assumptions are comparable to another key exogenous modelling assumption - that of global fossil fuel prices. Therefore, best practice in energy modelling would be to have both a no-policy reference baseline, and a current policy reference baseline (BAuU). At a minimum, energy modelling studies should have a transparent assessment of the current policy contained within the baseline. Clearly identifying and comparing policy-baseline assumptions are required for cost effective and objective policy making, otherwise energy models will underestimate the true cost of long-term emissions reductions.

Modeling environmental policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martin, W.E.; McDonald, L.A.

1997-01-01

The eight book chapters demonstrate the link between the physical models of the environment and the policy analysis in support of policy making. Each chapter addresses an environmental policy issue using a quantitative modeling approach. The volume addresses three general areas of environmental policy - non-point source pollution in the agricultural sector, pollution generated in the extractive industries, and transboundary pollutants from burning fossil fuels. The book concludes by discussing the modeling efforts and the use of mathematical models in general. Chapters are entitled: modeling environmental policy: an introduction; modeling nonpoint source pollution in an integrated system (agri-ecological); modeling environmental and trade policy linkages: the case of EU and US agriculture; modeling ecosystem constraints in the Clean Water Act: a case study in Clearwater National Forest (subject to discharge from metal mining waste); costs and benefits of coke oven emission controls; modeling equilibria and risk under global environmental constraints (discussing energy and environmental interrelations); relative contribution of the enhanced greenhouse effect on the coastal changes in Louisiana; and the use of mathematical models in policy evaluations: comments. The paper on coke area emission controls has been abstracted separately for the IEA Coal Research CD-ROM

Administrator Perceptions of School Improvement Policies in a High-Impact Policy Setting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MARIO S. TORRES

2008-10-01

Full Text Available This study investigated school administrators’ perceptions of school improvement policies in a high-impact policy environment by measuring the impact of accountability, site-based management, professional development, and scheduling reform on the three dependent variables of a academic outcomes, b staff morale, and c parent and community involvement. Using a convenience sampling method, 49 public school principals from Texas participated and an online survey was constructed to gather both quantitative (i.e., Likert scale and qualitative (i.e., open ended response data. The findings clearly point to principals, regardless of geographical district type and grade level school type, viewing less controversial and more intrinsically oriented policies (i.e., site-based management and professional development as having a greater positive impact on outcomes as a whole than more radical alternatives (i.e., accountability and time and schedule reform. The evidence suggests that more aggressive school improvement policy approaches are likely failing to generate enough convincing outcomes to generate high commitment and confidence from school leaders. Further studies may look at the interaction of policy impact with minority student enrollments and with subgroup populations.

A methodology for evaluating environmental impacts of railway freight transportation policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopez, Ignacio; Rodriguez, Javier; Buron, Jose Manuel; Garcia, Alberto

2009-01-01

Railway freight transportation presents a degree of complexity which frequently makes impossible to model it with sufficient precision. Currently, energetic and environmental impacts of freight transportation are usually modelled following average data, which do not reflect the characteristics of specific lines. These models allow qualitative approximations which may be used as criteria for designing high-level transportation policies: road-train modal shift, regional energetic planning or environmental policies. This paper proposes a methodology for estimating railway consumption associated to a specific railway line which yields a new degree of precision. It is based on estimating different contributions to railway consumption by a collection of factors, mobility, operation, or infrastructure-related. This procedure also allows applying the methodology for designing transportation policies in detail: evaluating impact of modal shift, consumption and pollutant emissions on a specific line, as well as the effect of building tunnels, reducing slopes, improving traffic control, etc. A comparison of the estimations given by the conventional approach and the proposed methodology is offered, as well as further comments on the results.

The Effect of Mitigation Policy on Regional Climate Impacts on the U.S. Electric Sector

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, S. M.; Sun, Y.; Strzepek, K.; McFarland, J.; Boehlert, B.; Fant, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change can influence the U.S. electricity sector in many ways, the nature of which can be shaped by energy and environmental policy choices. Changing temperatures affect electricity demand largely through heating and cooling needs, and temperatures also affect generation and transmission system performance. Altered precipitation patterns affect the regional and seasonal distribution of surface water runoff, which changes hydropower operation and thermal cooling water availability. The extent to which these stimuli influence U.S. power sector operation and planning will depend to some extent on whether or not proactive policies are enacted to mitigate these impacts. Mitigation policies such as CO2 emissions limits or technology restrictions can change the makeup of the electricity system while reducing the extent of climate change itself. We use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), a U.S. electric sector capacity expansion model, to explore electric sector evolution through 2050 under alternative climate and policy assumptions. The model endogenously represents climate impacts on load, power system performance, cooling water availability, and hydropower, allowing internally consistent system responses to climate change along with projected technology, market, and policy conditions. We compare climate impacts across 5 global circulation models for a 8.5 W/m2 representative concentration pathway (RCP) without a climate mitigation policy and a 4.5 W/m2 RCP with climate mitigation. Climate drivers affect the capacity and generation mix at the national and regional levels, with relative growth of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies depending on local electricity system characteristics. These differences affect regional economic impacts, measured here as changes to electricity price and system costs. Mitigation policy reduces the economic and system impacts of climate change largely by moderating

An evaluation model for low carbon island policy: The case of Taiwan's green transportation policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trappey, Amy J.C.; Trappey, Charles; Hsiao, C.T.; Ou, Jerry J.R.; Li, S.J.; Chen, Kevin W.P.

2012-01-01

Conserving energy and reducing carbon emissions have become the common responsibility of the international community. During the year 2010, the Taiwan government planned a four-year project budgeted at 300 million US dollars, called “The Penghu Low Carbon Island Development Project.” The policy objective is to use Penghu Island (population 85,000) as a test platform to evaluate new ways to conserve energy and reduce carbon emissions before attempting to replicate the policies on Taiwan Island. For Taiwan, a zero carbon island green transportation policy will regulate the total number of electric scooters, the total number of gasoline motorcycles, influence government subsidy incentives, and create the need for new motorcycle license issuing and control. These factors interact with each other to form a complex and dynamic system that impacts policy as well as the current way of life. In this study, a system dynamics approach is designed to construct a model for evaluating the green transportation policy on Penghu Island. Simulations are conducted to model green transportation system behavior and related policy effects in a smaller, controlled environment before creating policies for Taiwan Island that will impact the lives of over 23 million people. - Highlights: ► Provides an overview of Taiwan's Penghu Low Carbon Island Development Project. ► Develops a systems dynamics approach for green transportation policy assessment. ► Provides causal analysis of social, economic, and environmental factors. ► Demonstrates that the proposed policy cannot meet the CO 2 reduction goals. ► Alternative policies can be evaluated using the proposed approach.

41 CFR 101-25.111 - Environmental impact policy.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Environmental impact...-General Policies § 101-25.111 Environmental impact policy. (a) From time to time, Congress enacts... Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (42 U.S.C. 4321). The objective of such legislation is, among other things, the...

The effect of climate policy on the impacts of climate change on river flows in the UK

Science.gov (United States)

Arnell, Nigel W.; Charlton, Matthew B.; Lowe, Jason A.

2014-03-01

This paper compares the effects of two indicative climate mitigation policies on river flows in six catchments in the UK with two scenarios representing un-mitigated emissions. It considers the consequences of uncertainty in both the pattern of catchment climate change as represented by different climate models and hydrological model parameterisation on the effects of mitigation policy. Mitigation policy has little effect on estimated flow magnitudes in 2030. By 2050 a mitigation policy which achieves a 2 °C temperature rise target reduces impacts on low flows by 20-25% compared to a business-as-usual emissions scenario which increases temperatures by 4 °C by the end of the 21st century, but this is small compared to the range in impacts between different climate model scenarios. However, the analysis also demonstrates that an early peak in emissions would reduce impacts by 40-60% by 2080 (compared with the 4 °C pathway), easing the adaptation challenge over the long term, and can delay by several decades the impacts that would be experienced from around 2050 in the absence of policy. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided varies between climate model patterns and, to a lesser extent, hydrological model parameterisations, due to variations in the projected shape of the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response.

Weighing the Costs and Benefits of Renewables Portfolio Standards:A Comparative Analysis of State-Level Policy Impact Projections

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Cliff; Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

2007-01-16

State renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have emerged as one of the most important policy drivers of renewable energy capacity expansion in the U.S. Collectively, these policies now apply to roughly 40% of U.S. electricity load, and may have substantial impacts on electricity markets, ratepayers, and local economies. As RPS policies have been proposed or adopted in an increasing number of states, a growing number of studies have attempted to quantify the potential impacts of these policies, focusing primarily on projecting cost impacts, but sometimes also estimating macroeconomic and environmental effects. This report synthesizes and analyzes the results and methodologies of 28 distinct state or utility-level RPS cost impact analyses completed since 1998. Together, these studies model proposed or adopted RPS policies in 18 different states. We highlight the key findings of these studies on the costs and benefits of RPS policies, examine the sensitivity of projected costs to model assumptions, assess the attributes of different modeling approaches, and suggest possible areas of improvement for future RPS analysis.

Impact of policies regulating foreign physician migration to Switzerland: a modelling case study in anaesthesia.

Science.gov (United States)

Haller, Guy; Combescure, Christophe; Mamie, Chantal; Zoccatelli, Davide; Clergue, François

2015-05-22

Several countries have developed policies that restrict or limit duration of stay, clinical privileges or the number of residency permits allocated to migrating physicians. Switzerland is currently preparing a new law limiting overall foreign immigration. The impact of such restrictive policies is currently unknown. In a case study of anaesthesia care in Switzerland we modelled, trends in the size of physicians' workforce until 2024, following the implementation of a strict quota policy for foreign medical trainees. We developed a computer-based Markov model with Monte-Carlo simulations to project, in the context of a strict quota policy for foreign trainees, supply and demand for anaesthesia positions until 2024. We used data from a cross-sectional study performed in the French- and Italian-speaking cantons of Switzerland and the Health dataset from the OECD. With 8 to 12 (95% CI 4-20) anaesthetists retiring per year, the implementation of strict quotas of foreign graduates would result in a 38% decrease in the number of anaesthetists in intermediary (senior registrars) positions by 2024. This decrease would be particularly important in district hospitals where nearly half (49%) of the non-Swiss anaesthetists are practising. Swiss graduates are unlikely to balance the shortage. Despite efforts by Swiss universities to increase the number of medical graduates, their number has dropped from 10.5 to 9.7/100 000 inhabitants between 2000 and 2012, due to the growth of the population. This case study in Latin Switzerland shows that a restrictive policy limiting foreign immigration of trainees would result in a major deficit in the number of anaesthetists available to meet population needs. These aspects should be carefully considered when countries develop restrictions and limitations of foreign immigration.

Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael R. Guzy

2008-06-01

Full Text Available The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

Estimating the impact of alcohol policies on youth suicides.

Science.gov (United States)

Markowitz, Sara; Chatterji, Pinka; Kaestner, Robert

2003-03-01

Alcohol consumption has been identified as one of the most important risk factors for youth suicide. Previous research has shown a strong, empirical link between alcohol use and suicide. If alcohol use is a contributing factor in determining suicidal behaviors, then policies designed to reduce the alcohol consumption may succeed in reducing youth suicides as well. This paper looks at the role of alcohol-related policies in reducing completed suicides by American youths and young adults. This hypothesis comes from two well established relationships: i) the observed correlation between alcohol consumption and incidents of suicide, and ii) the negative relationship between the full price of alcohol and consumption. The alcohol policies examined are excise taxes on beer, measures of alcohol availability, and drunk driving laws. Data on completed suicides for each state in the United States are analyzed for the period 1976-1999. Negative binomial regressions are used to estimate a reduced form model of youth suicide. Suicides are analyzed by gender and age groups (ages 10-14, 15-19 and 20-24). The results indicate that increases in the excise tax on beer are associated with a reduced number of male suicides. This tax, however, has no impact on female suicides. Suicides by males ages 20-24 are positively related to the availability of alcohol, and negatively related to the presence of a 0.08 BAC (blood alcohol concentration) law and a zero tolerance law for drunk driving. Female suicides are not impacted by the availability of alcohol, although the drunk driving laws may impact suicides by teenage females. Policies designed to reduce alcohol consumption may have the unintended benefit of reducing suicides, particularly among young males. While this research shows that alcohol policies may be successful in reducing male suicides, such policies have little impact on female suicides. Future research should explore other potential types of policies and programs to reduce

Economic, welfare and environmental impact of feed-in tariff policy: A case study in Iran

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tabatabaei, Sharareh Majdzadeh; Hadian, Ebrahim; Marzban, Hossein; Zibaei, Mansour

2017-01-01

Following a particular attention given to environmental issues over the last few decades, establishing proper developmental policies to increase electricity production from renewable energy (RE) has not only been an important issue but also a challenge for many countries. Feed-in Tariff (FIT) Policy is one of the tools that is being used to facilitate the development of RE. This research evaluated the economic, welfare and environmental impact of this policy on Iran's economy. Therefore, after developing an Economic-Energy-Environmental (E3) type of Hybrid General Equilibrium model, the effect of FIT policy was examined under different scenarios in order to find an optimal condition in which 10% of electrical energy could be produced from renewable resources. The comparison between the results showed that the application of subsidies to RE and the way the government finances these subsidies can affect the results of FIT policy. Meanwhile, regardless of the role considered for the impact of environmental factors, our policies under the scenario of technology neutral is the most efficient, as it has less impact on the decline of GDP of different sectors and also has less financial cost for government. - Highlights: • E3 type of Hybrid CGE model is used under two different financing policies. • Technology neutral and technology specific scenarios are applied to these policies. • Results show the effect of our policies and scenarios on the efficiency of FIT policy. • This efficiency comes from the impact on GDP balance and government's financial cost. • The results show that, the scenario of technology neutral is the most efficient.

A top-down bottom-up modeling approach to climate change policy analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tuladhar, Sugandha D.; Yuan, Mei; Bernstein, Paul; Montgomery, W. David; Smith, Anne

2009-01-01

This paper analyzes macroeconomic impacts of U.S. climate change policies for three different emissions pathways using a top-down bottom-up integrated model. The integrated model couples a technology-rich, bottom-up model of the U.S. electricity sector with a fully dynamic, forward-looking general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy. Our model provides a unique and consistent modeling framework for climate change analysis. Because of the model's detail and flexibility, we use it to examine additional scenarios to analyze many of the major uncertainties surrounding the implementation and impact of climate change policies - the role of command-and-control measures, loss in flexibility mechanisms such as banking, limits on low-emitting technology, and availability of offsets. The results consistently demonstrate that those policies that combine market-oriented abatement incentives with full flexibility are the most cost-effective. (author)

Agri‐environmental Policies to Meet Consumer Preferences in Japan: An Economic‐Biophysical Model Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tetsuya Uetake

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Promoting environmentally friendly farming products is crucial to meeting consumer demand. Although governments implement policy measures to improve the environmental performance of the agriculture sector, theirimpacts are difficult to assess. This study analyses the performance of agri‐environmental policies in Japan, by using the OECD’s policy impact model and reference level framework. In particular, it identifies the environmental impacts of three simulated agri‐environmental policies based on farms’ characteristics. The results suggest that a policy mix of regulation and an incentive payment would reduce environmental impacts, suggesting that targeted approaches could improve the cost‐effectiveness of agri‐environmental policies.

Bio-economic modelling to assess the impact of water pricing policies at the farm level in the Oum Zessar watershed, southern Tunisia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jeder, H.; Sghaier, M.; Louhchi, P.; Reidsma, P.

2014-01-01

For integrated assessment at farm level, the Farm System SIMulator model (FSSIM) was used. FSSIM is a bio-economic model developed for the European context, and was adapted and tested for Tunisian conditions to assess, ex-ante, impacts of water pricing policies at the farm level to the year 2015.

A Simple Forecasting Model Linking Macroeconomic Policy to Industrial Employment Demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Malley, James R.; Hady, Thomas F.

A study detailed further a model linking monetary and fiscal policy to industrial employment in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas of four United States regions. The model was used to simulate the impacts on area and regional employment of three events in the economy: changing real gross national product (GNP) via monetary policy, holding the…

"Entrepreneurship policy: Trade-offs and impact in the EU"

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Murdock, Karen

2012-01-01

Based on the notion that trade-offs in public policies form the basis of the separation of managed and entrepreneurial economies; this paper investigates the impact of policy on actual entrepreneurship activity in these two categories of economies. Using data from 19 European Union member countries......, the impact that policy trade-offs in the goal, target, location and system of finance have on entrepreneurship activity is measured using ordinary least squares regression. The results indicate that while business regulation negatively impact entrepreneurship activity, the location of policy does not show...

Modelling climate change policies : an application of ENERGY2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Timilsina, G.; Bhargava, A.; Backus, G.

2005-01-01

Researches and policy-makers are increasingly analyzing the economic impacts of the Kyoto Protocol at national, regional and global levels. The analyses are generally based on numerical models integrating energy, environment and the economy. Most models range from partial equilibrium types to complex multi-sector general equilibrium models, and typically represent the energy sector at an aggregate level, which limits their ability to reflect details of different sectors. In Canada, a model called ENERGY2020 has been widely used by the federal and provincial governments to analyze the sectoral and provincial impacts of implementing the Kyoto Protocol. ENERGY2020 uses stocks and flows simulation that captures the physical aspects of the processes utilizing energy, as well as the qualitative choice theory which captures human behavioural aspects. The model also has a database containing 20 years of time-series on all economic, environmental and energy variables, enabling the model to derive most parameters endogenously through econometric estimations. It has the capacity to analyze consumer and business responses over a wide range of policy initiatives such as energy environment taxes, regulatory standards for buildings, equipment and motor vehicles, grants, rebates and subsidy initiatives, consumer awareness initiatives, technology improvements, moratoriums and mandated cut-backs. It is also capable of producing long-term energy market forecasts as well as analyzing the impacts of policies in the markets. It was concluded that the model's application will serve as a useful analytical tool for a range of issues, and may be useful to developing countries and economies in transition. 6 refs., 5 figs

Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation policy

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Frances C.; Diaz, Delavane B.

2015-02-01

Integrated assessment models compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained gross domestic product (GDP) growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth rates in the DICE model through two pathways, total factor productivity growth and capital depreciation. This damage specification, even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, substantially slows GDP growth in poor regions but has more modest effects in rich countries. Optimal climate policy in this model stabilizes global temperature change below 2 °C by eliminating emissions in the near future and implies a social cost of carbon several times larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of climate change impacts on economic growth, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages and GDP are three critical uncertainties requiring further research. In particular, optimal mitigation rates are much lower if countries become less sensitive to climate change impacts as they develop, making this a major source of uncertainty and an important subject for future research.

Impact of EU agricultural policy on developing countries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boysen, Ole; Jensen, Hans Grinsted; Matthews, Alan

2016-01-01

Despite substantial reforms, the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is still criticised for its detrimental effects on developing countries. This paper provides updated evidence on the impact of the CAP on one developing country, Uganda. It goes beyond estimating macro-level economic effects...... by analysing the impacts on poverty. The policy simulation results show that eliminating EU agricultural support would have marginal but nonetheless positive impacts on the Ugandan economy and its poverty indicators. From the perspective of the EU’s commitment to policy coherence for development, this supports...... the view that further reducing EU Agricultural support would be positive for development....

Freshwater Ecosystem Services in Mining Regions: Modelling Options for Policy Development Support

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Mercado-Garcia

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The ecosystem services (ES approach offers an integrated perspective of social-ecological systems, suitable for holistic assessments of mining impacts. Yet for ES models to be policy-relevant, methodological consensus in mining contexts is needed. We review articles assessing ES in mining areas focusing on freshwater components and policy support potential. Twenty-six articles were analysed concerning (i methodological complexity (data types, number of parameters, processes and ecosystem–human integration level and (ii potential applicability for policy development (communication of uncertainties, scenario simulation, stakeholder participation and management recommendations. Articles illustrate mining impacts on ES through valuation exercises mostly. However, the lack of ground- and surface-water measurements, as well as insufficient representation of the connectivity among soil, water and humans, leave room for improvements. Inclusion of mining-specific environmental stressors models, increasing resolution of topographies, determination of baseline ES patterns and inclusion of multi-stakeholder perspectives are advantageous for policy support. We argue that achieving more holistic assessments exhorts practitioners to aim for high social-ecological connectivity using mechanistic models where possible and using inductive methods only where necessary. Due to data constraints, cause–effect networks might be the most feasible and best solution. Thus, a policy-oriented framework is proposed, in which data science is directed to environmental modelling for analysis of mining impacts on water ES.

The Impact of Active Labour Market Policy on Post-Unemployment Outcomes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blasco, Sylvie; Rosholm, Michael

While job search theory predicts that active labour market policies (ALMPs) can affect post-unemployment outcomes, empirical evaluations investigating transition rates have mostly focused on the impact of ALMPs on exit rates from the current unemployment spell. We use a social experiment, which w......, the positive impact of the treatment becomes smaller but remains significant. 80% of the global impact of intensification acts through the direct channel for men.......While job search theory predicts that active labour market policies (ALMPs) can affect post-unemployment outcomes, empirical evaluations investigating transition rates have mostly focused on the impact of ALMPs on exit rates from the current unemployment spell. We use a social experiment, which...... was conducted in Denmark in 2005-6, to investigate the effects of a dramatic intensification of ALMPs on reemployment stability. We investigate the nature of this impact. We estimate a duration model with lagged duration dependence to separately identify "indirect" (via shorter unemployment duration...

Models for policy-making in sustainable development. The state of the art and perspectives for research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boulanger, Paul-Marie; Brechet, Thierry

2005-01-01

More and more frequently policy-makers are urged to assess the impact of their strategies and policies in terms of sustainable development. This necessitates the use of applied scientific models as tools for identifying and evaluating the likely environmental, economic and social impacts of alternative policies. The objective of this paper is to provide a framework to help decision-makers choose the most appropriate-or the most appropriate mix-of models, by assessing their relative strengths and weaknesses. The paper also allows potential improvements in modeling techniques to be identified. Six modeling paradigms are assessed, both on a general basis and with respect to two specific policy contexts (energy policy, and land use and transport planning)

German Energiewende and the heating market – Impact and limits of policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bauermann, Klaas

2016-01-01

The German Energiewende envisages achieving a climate-neutral building stock in 2050 by means of two major pillars of regulation. First, residential buildings should consume 80% less primary energy and second; the remaining energy demand should be covered primarily with renewables. This paper simulates the future German heating market under different policy scenarios in order to evaluate the impact and limits of recent and conceivable policies. The investigation is based upon a dual model approach, linking a residential heating model to a discrete choice model. The major finding is that current regulations are not suitable for the achievement of governmental targets. Scenario calculations show that additional carbon emission reductions, triggered by the current regulatory regime, are falling short of expectations. In terms of economic efficiency, all calculated policy alternatives outperform the regulation currently in place. This allows to draw the conclusion that carbon emission reductions can be achieved without a major increase in cost. The model results highlight two policy implications. First, a rising mandatory share of renewables in the heating market is needed for target achievement and can be cost effectively. Second, renewable obligations for heating systems must include the existing building stock to achieve the postulated political targets. - Highlights: •The residential heating market accounts for major share of carbon emissions. •The disregard of the building stock weakens the impact of recent regulation. •Current regulation preserves a heating market dominated by fossil fuels. •A significant renewable share can be achieved through direct regulation. •Alternative policy leads to emission reductions without major increases in costs.

The Development of a Multisource and a Systematized Database for Economic and Policy Impact Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ec. Filippo Oropallo

2007-02-01

Full Text Available ISTAT is involved in various EU projects with the objective of "supporting the Lisbon objectives, EU governance and the process of national policy coverage with the best EU-wide and national policy impact and evaluation analyses". Existing knowledge on policy impact analyses is approximate. The "facts" on the impact of policies are charted only at the aggregate level and with a high degree of approximation. Macro indicators have well-known pitfalls and drawbacks. Understanding how policies affect economic performance and developing better indicators to gauge their effects is central to endow the EU with a set of efficient and fair policies. The gap in European knowledge and capacity for Policy Impact Analysis is patent. The DIECOFIS EU-FP5 project has taken up the challenge of reducing this gap in the field of taxation. Results have been quite encouraging and have open new vistas for future work. Particularly notable has been the development of a system of micro-founded indicators, based on factuals and counterfactuals, estimated through micro-simulation models. This has led to the current utilization of such a tool in the ex-ante microsimulation of the effects of several reforms of corporate taxation

Models of policy-making and their relevance for drug research.

Science.gov (United States)

Ritter, Alison; Bammer, Gabriele

2010-07-01

Researchers are often frustrated by their inability to influence policy. We describe models of policy-making to provide new insights and a more realistic assessment of research impacts on policy. We describe five prominent models of policy-making and illustrate them with examples from the alcohol and drugs field, before drawing lessons for researchers. Policy-making is a complex and messy process, with different models describing different elements. We start with the incrementalist model, which highlights small amendments to policy, as occurs in school-based drug education. A technical/rational approach then outlines the key steps in a policy process from identification of problems and their causes, through to examination and choice of response options, and subsequent implementation and evaluation. There is a clear role for research, as we illustrate with the introduction of new medications, but this model largely ignores the dominant political aspects of policy-making. Such political aspects include the influence of interest groups, and we describe models about power and pressure groups, as well as advocacy coalitions, and the challenges they pose for researchers. These are illustrated with reference to the alcohol industry, and interest group conflicts in establishing a Medically Supervised Injecting Centre. Finally, we describe the multiple streams framework, which alerts researchers to 'windows of opportunity', and we show how these were effectively exploited in policy for cannabis law reform in Western Australia. Understanding models of policy-making can help researchers maximise the uptake of their work and advance evidence-informed policy.

Energy exporters and climate change. Potential economic impacts of climate policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wit, R.C.N.

1997-06-01

This review paper has been written on a commission by the Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA) in London and is part of a project to investigate the possible impact of greenhouse gas mitigation policies on energy markets and therefore on countries exporting oil, gas and coal. The aim of the project conducted by RIIA is to achieve a better understanding of the role of energy exporters in international climate change negotiations on the road towards the second Conference of Parties in Kyoto at the end of 1997 and the underlying national strategies. All four 'economy'-oriented global model studies reviewed in this paper indicate that CO2-reduction policies would cause wide differences in welfare effects across regions. It appears that energy-exporting countries would suffer the greatest welfare losses. Although several policy instruments can be implemented to achieve CO2-emission reductions, only carbon taxes are considered in the models. The model results show that if world level CO2 emissions are approximately stabilized at their 1990 levels, the cumulative losses in GDP of energy exporters generally range between 3% and 12% by 2010. It should be strongly emphasized that the sign and magnitude of the economic impact of CO2 policy on energy exporters depend critically on how the policy instrument is designed. In the case of a carbon tax the following factors are crucial: (1) the choice between a consumption and a production tax, (2) whether it is based on a global or unilateral agreement, (3) the mode of revenue redistribution among countries and (4) whether emission trading is allowed. 27 refs

Research That Counts: OECD Statistics and "Policy Entrepreneurs" Impacting on Australian Adult Literacy and Numeracy Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Black, Stephen; Yasukawa, Keiko

2016-01-01

This paper analyses research that has impacted on Australia's most recent national policy document on adult literacy and numeracy, the National Foundation Skills Strategy (NFSS). The paper draws in part on Lingard's 2013 paper, "The impact of research on education policy in an era of evidence-based policy", in which he outlines the…

77 FR 68776 - Economic Impact Policy

Science.gov (United States)

2012-11-16

... EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public..., Malaysia, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, South Africa, Spain, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Turkey, and United Kingdom. Interested parties may submit comments on this transaction by email to economic.impact...

Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

2014-01-01

With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project 'European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast' - http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). A model was built to assess policy scenarios' impact on the pharmaceutical budgets of seven member states of the EU, namely France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. The following scenarios were tested: expanding the UK policies to EU, changing time to market access, modifying generic price and penetration, shifting the distribution chain of biosimilars (retail/hospital). Applying the UK policy resulted in dramatic savings for Germany (10 times the base case forecast) and substantial additional savings for France and Portugal (2 and 4 times the base case forecast, respectively). Delaying time to market was found be to a very powerful tool to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Applying the EU transparency directive (6-month process for pricing and reimbursement) increased pharmaceutical expenditure for all countries (from 1.1 to 4 times the base case forecast), except in Germany (additional savings). Decreasing the price of generics and boosting the penetration rate, as well as shifting distribution of biosimilars through hospital chain were also key methods to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Change in the level of reimbursement rate to 100% in all countries led to an important increase in the pharmaceutical budget. Forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure is a critical exercise to inform policy decision makers. The most important leverages identified by the model on pharmaceutical budget were driven by generic and biosimilar prices, penetration rate, and distribution. Reducing, even slightly, the prices of

Impact of the joint-stock reform of commercial banks on the effectiveness of monetary policy in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fang Xianming

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Over the past decade, the Chinese government has conducted the joint-stock reform of state-owned commercial banks. The joint-stock reform improves the marketization level of the ownership structure of commercial banks and consequently leads to impacts on the effectiveness of monetary policy. This paper first presents the impacting mechanisms of the joint-stock reform of commercial banks on the effectiveness of monetary policy and then constructs an empirical model to test those impacts. The empirical results show that the increasing degree of joint-stock reform of commercial banks enhances the effectiveness of expansionary monetary policy but weakens the effectiveness of contractionary monetary policy in China.

Modeling policy mix to improve the competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Silitonga, R. Y.H.; Siswanto, J.; Simatupang, T.; Bahagia, S.N.

2016-07-01

The purpose of this research is to develop a model that will explain the impact of government policies to the competitiveness of palm oil industry. The model involves two commodities in this industry, namely crude palm oil (CPO) and refined palm oil (RPO), each has different added value. The model built will define the behavior of government in controlling palm oil industry, and their interactions with macro-environment, in order to improve the competitiveness of the industry. Therefore the first step was to map the main activities in this industry using value chain analysis. After that a conceptual model was built, where the output of the model is competitiveness of the industry based on market share. The third step was model formulation. The model is then utilized to simulate the policy mix given by government in improving the competitiveness of Palm Oil Industry. The model was developed using only some policies which give direct impact to the competitiveness of the industry. For macro environment input, only price is considered in this model. The model can simulate the output of the industry for various government policies mix given to the industry. This research develops a model that can represent the structure and relationship between industry, government and macro environment, using value chain analysis and hierarchical multilevel system approach. (Author)

Modeling policy mix to improve the competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roland Y H Silitonga

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this research is to develop a model that will explain the impact of government policies to the competitiveness of palm oil industry. The model involves two commodities in this industry, namely crude palm oil (CPO and refined palm oil (RPO, each has different added value. Design/methodology/approach: The model built will define the behavior of government in controlling palm oil industry, and their interactions with macro-environment, in order to improve the competitiveness of the industry. Therefore the first step was to map the main activities in this industry using value chain analysis. After that a conceptual model was built, where the output of the model is competitiveness of the industry based on market share. The third step was model formulation. The model is then utilized to simulate the policy mix given by government in improving the competitiveness of Palm Oil Industry. Research limitations/implications: The model was developed using only some policies which give direct impact to the competitiveness of the industry. For macro environment input, only price is considered in this model. Practical implications: The model can simulate the output of the industry for various government policies mix given to the industry. Originality/value: This research develops a model that can represent the structure and relationship between industry, government and macro environment, using value chain analysis and hierarchical multilevel system approach.

Dynamic energy models and carbon mitigation policies

Science.gov (United States)

Tilley, Luke A.

In this dissertation I examine a specific class of energy models and their implications for carbon mitigation policies. The class of models includes a production function capable of reproducing the empirically observed phenomenon of short run rigidity of energy use in response to energy price changes and long run exibility of energy use in response to energy price changes. I use a theoretical model, parameterized using empirical data, to simulate economic performance under several tax regimes where taxes are levied on capital income, investment, and energy. I also investigate transitions from one tax regime to another. I find that energy taxes intended to reduce energy use can successfully achieve those goals with minimal or even positive impacts on macroeconomic performance. But the transition paths to new steady states are lengthy, making political commitment to such policies very challenging.

Impact of Climate Change. Policy Uncertainty in Power Investment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blyth, W.; Yang, M.

2006-10-01

Climate change policies are being introduced or actively considered in all IEA member countries, changing the investment conditions and technology choices in the energy sector. Many of these policies are at a formative stage, and policy uncertainty is currently high. The objective of this paper is to quantify the impacts of climate change policy on power investment. We use Real Options Analysis approach in the study and model uncertain carbon price and fuel price with stochastic variables. The analysis compares the effects of climate policy uncertainty with fuel price uncertainty, showing the relative importance of these sources of risk for different technologies. This paper considers views on the importance of climate policy risk, how it is managed, and how it might affect investment behaviour. The implications for policymakers are analyzed, allowing the key messages to be transferred into policy design decisions. We found that in many cases, the dominant risks facing base-load generation investment decisions will be market risks associated with electricity and fuel prices. However, under certain conditions and for some technologies, climate policy uncertainty can be an important risk factor, creating an incentive to delay investment and raising investment thresholds. This paper concludes that government climate change policies to promote investment in low-carbon technologies should aim to overcome this incentive to delay by sending long-term investment signals backed up by strengthened international policy action to enhance domestic policy credibility

Impact assessment and policy learning in the European Commission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruddy, Thomas F.; Hilty, Lorenz M.

2008-01-01

Governance for sustainable development requires policy coherence and Environmental Policy Integration, which are being hindered by difficulties coordinating the two separate impact assessment processes being conducted in the European Commission. One of them, the Commission-wide Impact Assessment process, looks primarily at EU-internal impacts, whereas the other one, Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) in DG Trade, looks outward to other countries and intergovernmental organizations. Ideally, the two processes should complement one another, especially as the two are set to continue being done in parallel. The paper uses a case study of the reform of the European sugar regime under a World Trade Organization ruling to demonstrate how the two impact assessment processes could better complement one another. Feedback from the experience had with existing trade agreements could then promote policy learning and inform the negotiations on new agreements. The number of new bilateral and Regional Trade Agreements is expected to continue rising, thus increasing the importance of the Commission-wide Impact Assessment process required for them

Healthy Food Procurement Policies and Their Impact

Science.gov (United States)

Niebylski, Mark L.; Lu, Tammy; Campbell, Norm R. C.; Arcand, Joanne; Schermel, Alyssa; Hua, Diane; Yeates, Karen E.; Tobe, Sheldon W.; Twohig, Patrick A.; L’Abbé, Mary R.; Liu, Peter P.

2014-01-01

Unhealthy eating is the leading risk for death and disability globally. As a result, the World Health Organization (WHO) has called for population health interventions. One of the proposed interventions is to ensure healthy foods are available by implementing healthy food procurement policies. The objective of this systematic review was to evaluate the evidence base assessing the impact of such policies. A comprehensive review was conducted by searching PubMed and Medline for policies that had been implemented and evaluated the impact of food purchases, food consumption, and behaviors towards healthy foods. Thirty-four studies were identified and found to be effective at increasing the availability and purchases of healthy food and decreasing purchases of unhealthy food. Most policies also had other components such as education, price reductions, and health interventions. The multiple gaps in research identified by this review suggest that additional research and ongoing evaluation of food procurement programs is required. Implementation of healthy food procurement policies in schools, worksites, hospitals, care homes, correctional facilities, government institutions, and remote communities increase markers of healthy eating. Prior or simultaneous implementation of ancillary education about healthy eating, and rationale for the policy may be critical success factors and additional research is needed. PMID:24595213

Assessing the impact of information and framing on support for climate policy action

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hatfield-Dodds, Steve

2007-01-01

Full text: A significant share of the public appears mislead by the way the economic impacts of emissions reductions are traditionally communicated. This misunderstanding is associated with reduced support for policy action, and risks long term climate impacts that would be avoided if results were communicated properly. Correct this basis appears likely to have a larger effect on attitudes than new research and information on the impacts of climate change. Government action to achieve deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions - like other major policy changes -depends on public support, which in turn depends on perceptions of policy impacts. This paper reports research exploring the effect of three factors on support for policy action: the way that policy impacts are described; the magnitude of these impacts, and additional information on climate change impacts, provided internally through the surveys and externally through the release of An Inconvenient Truth and media coverage of the Stern Report (2006). The research used split sample phone and internet surveys (n = 4264) conducted in Australia and New Zealand in four waves from April to December 2006. The study gives rise to four major findings: Support for policy action is sensitive to the magnitude of expected economic impacts, with predicted support varying from 27% to 84% across the different levels of policy impact presented; Current approaches to communicating policy impacts are associated with public support for policy action being 8-10% lower than it would be if policy impacts were well communicated. This bias may be corrected by describing policy impacts in terms of changes relative to current levels - stating that incomes continue to rise - as well as describing impacts relative to the base case; The reduction in support associated with these biases is much larger than the increase in support associated with providing credible additional information on the impacts of climate change; Significantly more than

Financing investments in renewable energy: the impacts of policy design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wiser, Ryan H.; Pickle, Steven J.

1998-01-01

The costs of electric power projects utilising renewable energy technologies (RETs) are highly sensitive to financing terms. Consequently, as the electricity industry is restructured and new renewables policies are created, it is important for policymakers to consider the impacts of renewables policy design on RET financing. This paper reviews the power plant financing process for renewable energy projects, estimates the impact of financing terms on levelised energy costs, and provides insights to policymakers on the important nexus between renewables policy design and financing. We review five case studies of renewable energy policies, and find that one of the key reasons that RET policies are not more effective is that project development and financing processes are frequently ignored or misunderstood when designing and implementing renewable energy policies. The case studies specifically show that policies that do no provide long-term stability or that have negative secondary impacts on investment decisions will increase financing costs, sometimes dramatically reducing the effectiveness of the program. Within U.S. electricity restructuring proceedings, new renewable energy policies are being created, and restructuring itself is changing the way RETs are financed. As these new policies are created and implemented, it is essential that policymakers acknowledge the financing difficulties faced by renewables developer and pay special attention to the impacts of renewables policy design on financing. As shown in this paper, a renewables policy that is carefully designed can reduce renewable energy costs dramatically by providing revenue certainty that will, in turn, reduce financing risk premiums. (Author)

An Integrated Framework for Modeling Air Carrier Behavior, Policy, and Impacts in the U.S. Air Transportation System

Science.gov (United States)

Horio, Brant M.; Kumar, Vivek; DeCicco, Anthony H.; Hasan, Shahab; Stouffer, Virginia L.; Smith, Jeremy C.; Guerreiro, Nelson M.

2015-01-01

The implementation of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) in the United States is an ongoing challenge for policymakers due to the complexity of the air transportation system (ATS) with its broad array of stakeholders and dynamic interdependencies between them. The successful implementation of NextGen has a hard dependency on the active participation of U.S. commercial airlines. To assist policymakers in identifying potential policy designs that facilitate the implementation of NextGen, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and LMI developed a research framework called the Air Transportation System Evolutionary Simulation (ATS-EVOS). This framework integrates large empirical data sets with multiple specialized models to simulate the evolution of the airline response to potential future policies and explore consequential impacts on ATS performance and market dynamics. In the ATS-EVOS configuration presented here, we leverage the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM), the Airline Evolutionary Simulation (AIRLINE-EVOS), the Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES), and the Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), all of which enable this research to comprehensively represent the complex facets of the ATS and its participants. We validated this baseline configuration of ATS-EVOS against Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) data and subject matter expert opinion, and we verified the ATS-EVOS framework and agent behavior logic through scenario-based experiments that explored potential implementations of a carbon tax, congestion pricing policy, and the dynamics for equipage of new technology by airlines. These experiments demonstrated ATS-EVOS's capabilities in responding to a wide range of potential NextGen-related policies and utility for decision makers to gain insights for effective policy design.

Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

2014-01-01

Background and objective With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project ‘European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast’ – http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Methods A model was built to assess policy scenarios’ impact on the pharmaceutical budgets of seven member states of the EU, namely France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. The following scenarios were tested: expanding the UK policies to EU, changing time to market access, modifying generic price and penetration, shifting the distribution chain of biosimilars (retail/hospital). Results Applying the UK policy resulted in dramatic savings for Germany (10 times the base case forecast) and substantial additional savings for France and Portugal (2 and 4 times the base case forecast, respectively). Delaying time to market was found be to a very powerful tool to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Applying the EU transparency directive (6-month process for pricing and reimbursement) increased pharmaceutical expenditure for all countries (from 1.1 to 4 times the base case forecast), except in Germany (additional savings). Decreasing the price of generics and boosting the penetration rate, as well as shifting distribution of biosimilars through hospital chain were also key methods to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Change in the level of reimbursement rate to 100% in all countries led to an important increase in the pharmaceutical budget. Conclusions Forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure is a critical exercise to inform policy decision makers. The most important leverages identified by the model on pharmaceutical budget were driven by generic and biosimilar prices, penetration rate

Impacts of a United States' biofuel policy on New Zealand's agricultural sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saunders, Caroline; Kaye-Blake, William; Marshall, Liz; Greenhalgh, Suzie; De Aragao Pereira, Mariana

2009-01-01

The rise in oil prices has spurred interest in biofuels. Policies in the United States like the renewable fuel standard (RFS) have led to an expansion of ethanol production, while the New Zealand government has mandated a minimum level of biofuel sales. The research used a partial equilibrium model of international trade to quantify the price and farmgate income effects of the US RFS policy. The goal was to examine the competition between food and biofuel production and to quantify the impact of the policy on the agricultural sector in New Zealand. The RFS policy has a significant impact on corn prices, but a small effect on livestock prices and production. There thus appears to be little conflict between food and fuel uses for corn at the level of the RFS mandate. New Zealand's pasture-based livestock sector benefits from the use of corn for ethanol production: it receives better prices for its products, but does not face the same input cost increases as competitors. The results suggest that New Zealand faces an interesting decision: it could support investment in biofuels research, or benefit from the biofuels boom through the indirect impacts on demand and prices for meat and milk. (author)

Impacts of licensed premises trading hour policies on alcohol-related harms.

Science.gov (United States)

Atkinson, Jo-An; Prodan, Ante; Livingston, Michael; Knowles, Dylan; O'Donnell, Eloise; Room, Robin; Indig, Devon; Page, Andrew; McDonnell, Geoff; Wiggers, John

2018-07-01

Evaluations of alcohol policy changes demonstrate that restriction of trading hours of both 'on'- and 'off'-licence venues can be an effective means of reducing rates of alcohol-related harm. Despite this, the effects of different trading hour policy options over time, accounting for different contexts and demographic characteristics, and the common co-occurrence of other harm reduction strategies in trading hour policy initiatives, are difficult to estimate. The aim of this study was to use dynamic simulation modelling to compare estimated impacts over time of a range of trading hour policy options on various indicators of acute alcohol-related harm. An agent-based model of alcohol consumption in New South Wales, Australia was developed using existing research evidence, analysis of available data and a structured approach to incorporating expert opinion. Five policy scenarios were simulated, including restrictions to trading hours of on-licence venues and extensions to trading hours of bottle shops. The impact of the scenarios on four measures of alcohol-related harm were considered: total acute harms, alcohol-related violence, emergency department (ED) presentations and hospitalizations. Simulation of a 3 a.m. (rather than 5 a.m.) closing time resulted in an estimated 12.3 ± 2.4% reduction in total acute alcohol-related harms, a 7.9 ± 0.8% reduction in violence, an 11.9 ± 2.1% reduction in ED presentations and a 9.5 ± 1.8% reduction in hospitalizations. Further reductions were achieved simulating a 1 a.m. closing time, including a 17.5 ± 1.1% reduction in alcohol-related violence. Simulated extensions to bottle shop trading hours resulted in increases in rates of all four measures of harm, although most of the effects came from increasing operating hours from 10 p.m. to 11 p.m. An agent-based simulation model suggests that restricting trading hours of licensed venues reduces rates of alcohol-related harm and extending trading hours of bottle

Impact Analysis of Air Pollutant Emission Policies on Thermal Coal Supply Chain Enterprises in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaopeng Guo

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Spurred by the increasingly serious air pollution problem, the Chinese government has launched a series of policies to put forward specific measures of power structure adjustment and the control objectives of air pollution and coal consumption. Other policies pointed out that the coal resources regional blockades will be broken by improving transportation networks and constructing new logistics nodes. Thermal power takes the largest part of China’s total installed power generation capacity, so these policies will undoubtedly impact thermal coal supply chain member enterprises. Based on the actual situation in China, this paper figures out how the member enterprises adjust their business decisions to satisfy the requirements of air pollution prevention and control policies by establishing system dynamic models of policy impact transfer. These dynamic analyses can help coal enterprises and thermal power enterprises do strategic environmental assessments and find directions of sustainable development. Furthermore, the policy simulated results of this paper provide the Chinese government with suggestions for policy-making to make sure that the energy conservation and emission reduction policies and sustainable energy policies can work more efficiently.

Innovative energy technologies in energy-economy models: assessing economic, energy and environmental impacts of climate policy and technological change in Germany.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schumacher, K.

2007-04-18

Energy technologies and innovation are considered to play a crucial role in climate change mitigation. Yet, the representation of technologies in energy-economy models, which are used extensively to analyze the economic, energy and environmental impacts of alternative energy and climate policies, is rather limited. This dissertation presents advanced techniques of including technological innovations in energy-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. New methods are explored and applied for improving the realism of energy production and consumption in such top-down models. The dissertation addresses some of the main criticism of general equilibrium models in the field of energy and climate policy analysis: The lack of detailed sectoral and technical disaggregation, the restricted view on innovation and technological change, and the lack of extended greenhouse gas mitigation options. The dissertation reflects on the questions of (1) how to introduce innovation and technological change in a computable general equilibrium model as well as (2) what additional and policy relevant information is gained from using these methodologies. Employing a new hybrid approach of incorporating technology-specific information for electricity generation and iron and steel production in a dynamic multi-sector computable equilibrium model it can be concluded that technology-specific effects are crucial for the economic assessment of climate policy, in particular the effects relating to process shifts and fuel input structure. Additionally, the dissertation shows that learning-by-doing in renewable energy takes place in the renewable electricity sector but is equally important in upstream sectors that produce technologies, i.e. machinery and equipment, for renewable electricity generation. The differentiation of learning effects in export sectors, such as renewable energy technologies, matters for the economic assessment of climate policies because of effects on international

The Impact of Fiscal Policies on the Socioeconomic Determinants of Health.

Science.gov (United States)

Mosquera, Isabel; González-Rábago, Yolanda; Bacigalupe, Amaia; Suhrcke, Marc

2017-04-01

There has been considerable recent debate around the alleged impact of discretionary fiscal policies - especially austerity policies - on health and health inequalities. Assuming that most of the impact will have to run via the effect of fiscal policies on socioeconomic determinants of health (SDH), it is of interest to gain a further understanding of the relationship between fiscal policies and SDH. Therefore, the aim of this article is to review the recent evidence on the impact of discretionary fiscal policies on key SDH, i.e. income, poverty, education, and employment, in high income OECD countries. We find that there are no simple answers as to how fiscal policy affects those determinants of health. The effects of contractionary and expansionary fiscal policies on the analyzed SDH vary considerably across countries and will largely depend on the pre-crisis situation. Contractionary fiscal policies seem to have increased poverty, while their impact on income inequality will be influenced by the composition of the implemented measures. More empirical research trying to directly link fiscal policies to health outcomes, while taking into account of some of the mechanisms encountered here, would be worthwhile.

Community Health Workers Promote Civic Engagement and Organizational Capacity to Impact Policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Sabo, Samantha; Flores, Melissa; Wennerstrom, Ashley; Bell, Melanie L; Verdugo, Lorena; Carvajal, Scott; Ingram, Maia

2017-12-01

Community health workers (CHW) have historically served to link structurally vulnerable populations to broad support systems. Emerging evidence suggests that CHWs engage in various forms of advocacy to promote policy and systems change. We assessed the impact of CHW community advocacy on community change, defined as civic engagement, organizational capacity and policy and systems change. Data are drawn from the 2014 National Community Health Worker Advocacy Survey (N = 1776) aimed to identify the state of the CHW profession, and their impact on health disparities through community advocacy and policy engagement. Our primary analysis used multiple linear regression to assess the association between CHW advocacy and community change. As predicted, there was a significant, positive association between CHW advocacy and change in community conditions. Additionally, both adjusted and sensitivity models had similar standardized beta estimates for advocacy, and adjusted R 2 statistics. CHW advocacy predicts positive change in community conditions and further advances the CHW Community Advocacy Framework designed to support and monitor CHW community advocacy to reduce health disparities through advocacy and policy change.

Policy Impact on the Chinese Stock Market: From the 1994 Bailout Policies to the 2015 Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yang-Chao Wang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available From the 1994 bailout policies to the 2015 Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the policy impact on the Chinese stock market has changed over time. By May 2015, global investors can directly invest in a more legalized and normalized Chinese stock market, whereas they are still concerned about the policy-oriented market and its attendant risks. In this study, we employ the family of GARCH models to investigate the structural changes in risks with the implementation of a series of policies. Our results show that although many policies improve or stabilize the stock market, certain policies lead to substantial volatility. Among them, macro-control policies and transaction cost adjustments are a double-edged sword, which should be used with caution. Furthermore, with opening-up policies being launched recently, the Chinese stock market has entered a new stage in which it affects international capital markets. However, the increased risks, which may result in a sharp turnaround, cause worry.

Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts.

Science.gov (United States)

Monier, Erwan; Paltsev, Sergey; Sokolov, Andrei; Chen, Y-H Henry; Gao, Xiang; Ejaz, Qudsia; Couzo, Evan; Schlosser, C Adam; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Fant, Charles; Scott, Jeffery; Kicklighter, David; Morris, Jennifer; Jacoby, Henry; Prinn, Ronald; Haigh, Martin

2018-02-13

Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis-which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios-we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations.

Policy Reform Impact on Food Manufacturing

OpenAIRE

Celikkol, Pinar; Dunn, James W.; Stefanou, Spiro E.

2003-01-01

The impact of agricultural policies and their reform is of major concern when addressing issues of growth, innovation and consolidation in the food manufacturing sector. Growth is one of the forces fueling the globalization of food manufacturing activities. Market- and policy-driven forces present a myriad of opportunities to influence growth and reorientation of patterns at the nexus where food manufacturing links the food system. The productivity and international competitiveness of the foo...

State distributed PV policies: Can low cost (to government) policies have a market impact?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krasko, Vitaliy A.; Doris, Elizabeth

2013-01-01

This analysis examines the use of state policy as a tool to support the development of distributed generation photovoltaic (PV) markets. The focus is on low-cost market opening policies instead of various forms of government subsidies aimed at reducing installation costs. The ideas tested in this work are: (1) low-cost market opening policies can be effective in facilitating PV market growth without subsidizing projects, and (2) policies can be made more effective if states and localities stage their enactment in a particular order. The policies selected for evaluation emerge from a policy stacking theory outlined in Doris (2012), NREL/CP-7A30-54801, Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. A cross-section econometric analysis that takes into account the quality of interconnection standards, net metering standards, Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), RPS set-asides, and a non-policy determinant (population) explains about 70% of the variation in newly installed PV capacity across states and indicates that all of the selected policies are significant. Nonparametric statistical tests confirm the regression results. Qualitative evidence is also presented indicating that effective policy ordering starts with improving interconnection standards, closely followed by improvements in net metering standards, and eventually strengthened by the enactment of an RPS and set-asides. - Highlights: • Impacts of low cost market opening policies on PV capacity are evaluated. • Impact of a strategic policy enactment sequence is evaluated. • Effective interconnection, net metering, RPS, and set-asides increase PV capacity. • Effective ordering is market preparation, then creation, then expansion policies

The Impact of Transport Mode and Carbon Policy on Low-Carbon Retailer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi Zheng

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Low-carbon retail has become a strategic target for many developed and developing economies. This study discusses the impact of transport mode and carbon policy on achieving this objective. We investigated the retailer transportation mode, pricing, and ordering strategy, which all consider carbon-sensitive demand under the carbon cap-and-trade policy. We analyzed the optimal decision of retailer and their maximum profit affected by transport mode and cap-and-trade policy parameters. Results show that the two elements (cap-and-trade policy and consumer low-carbon awareness could encourage the retailer to choose low-carbon transportation. The two elements also influence the profit and optimal decision of retailer. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the applicability of the model.

From Predictive Models to Instructional Policies

Science.gov (United States)

Rollinson, Joseph; Brunskill, Emma

2015-01-01

At their core, Intelligent Tutoring Systems consist of a student model and a policy. The student model captures the state of the student and the policy uses the student model to individualize instruction. Policies require different properties from the student model. For example, a mastery threshold policy requires the student model to have a way…

Kenya's health workforce information system: a model of impact on strategic human resources policy, planning and management.

Science.gov (United States)

Waters, Keith P; Zuber, Alexandra; Willy, Rankesh M; Kiriinya, Rose N; Waudo, Agnes N; Oluoch, Tom; Kimani, Francis M; Riley, Patricia L

2013-09-01

Countries worldwide are challenged by health worker shortages, skill mix imbalances, and maldistribution. Human resources information systems (HRIS) are used to monitor and address these health workforce issues, but global understanding of such systems is minimal and baseline information regarding their scope and capability is practically non-existent. The Kenya Health Workforce Information System (KHWIS) has been identified as a promising example of a functioning HRIS. The objective of this paper is to document the impact of KHWIS data on human resources policy, planning and management. Sources for this study included semi-structured interviews with senior officials at Kenya's Ministry of Medical Services (MOMS), Ministry of Public Health and Sanitation (MOPHS), the Department of Nursing within MOMS, the Nursing Council of Kenya, Kenya Medical Practitioners and Dentists Board, Kenya's Clinical Officers Council, and Kenya Medical Laboratory Technicians and Technologists Board. Additionally, quantitative data were extracted from KHWIS databases to supplement the interviews. Health sector policy documents were retrieved from MOMS and MOPHS websites, and reviewed to assess whether they documented any changes to policy and practice as having been impacted by KHWIS data. Interviews with Kenyan government and regulatory officials cited health workforce data provided by KHWIS influenced policy, regulation, and management. Policy changes include extension of Kenya's age of mandatory civil service retirement from 55 to 60 years. Data retrieved from KHWIS document increased relicensing of professional nurses, midwives, medical practitioners and dentists, and interviewees reported this improved compliance raised professional regulatory body revenues. The review of Government records revealed few references to KHWIS; however, documentation specifically cited the KHWIS as having improved the availability of human resources for health information regarding workforce planning

An economic analysis of transportation fuel policies in Brazil: Fuel choice, land use, and environmental impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nuñez, Hector M.; Önal, Hayri

2016-01-01

Brazil uses taxes, subsidies, and blending mandates as policy instruments to manage and stabilize its transportation fuel markets. The fuel sector has been very dynamic in recent years due to frequent policy adjustments and variable market conditions. In this paper, we use a price endogenous economic simulation model to analyze the impacts of such policy adjustments under various challenging conditions in the global ethanol and sugar markets. Our analysis specifically focuses on Brazilian producers' supply responses, consumers' driving demand and fuel choice, ethanol trade, land use, greenhouse gas emissions, and social welfare. The model results show that (i) under a low ethanol blending rate, conventional vehicles would be driven significantly less while flex-fuel and ethanol-dedicated vehicles would not be affected significantly; (ii) lowering the fuel taxes adversely affects the competitiveness of sugarcane ethanol against gasoline blends, thus lowering producers' surplus; and (iii) while a reduction in fuel taxes is advantageous in terms of overall social welfare, it has serious environmental impacts by increasing the GHG emissions from transportation fuels consumed in Brazil. - Highlights: • We examine the economic and environmental impacts of Brazilian fuel policies. • We also analyze impacts under different sugar and ethanol markets conditions. • Lowering blending rate reduces distance driven by conventional cars. • Lowering fuel tax rates affects competitiveness of ethanol against gasoline blend. • Reducing fuel tax rates has dramatic environmental impacts by increasing emissions.

The impacts of individualization on equity educational policies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guadalupe Francia

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The present article has as its aim to illustrate and discuss the impacts of individualization strategies on equity educational policies through the analysis of individualized teaching strategies applied within the framework of educational priority policies in Sweden. The methodology used in our research work includes: (a the study of research literature about the individualization of teaching implemented in the Swedish comprehensive compulsory school; and (b the study of research literature about educational priority policies aimed at children from socially and ethnically segregated areas. Comparative research of educational policies considers the individualization of teaching carried out in the Swedish comprehensive compulsory school as a relevant explanation for the successful application of equitable educational policies in that country. However, research studies published during the 2000s in Sweden show a more complex perspective regarding the effects of individualized teaching strategies. This contribution reviews European comparative research studies on individualization strategies followed in the context of equity policies. It raises questions about the lack of analyses referring to the impacts of individualization on schools located in socially and ethnically segregated areas. It argues that this ideology tends to reduce the issue of school failure to ethnic segregation and individualized teacher support. This article claims that Individualization strategies based on differentiated curricula for students run the risk of increasing the discrimination of students for reasons of language or ethnic background. Even though the present study focuses on the Swedish experience, it can lead to a better understanding of the impacts caused by individualization strategies on equity in other European countries.

JERM model of care: an in-principle model for dental health policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lam, Raymond; Kruger, Estie; Tennant, Marc

2014-01-01

Oral diseases are the most prevalent conditions in the community. Their economic burden is high and their impact on quality of life is profound. There is an increasing body of evidence indicating that oral diseases have wider implications beyond the confines of the mouth. The importance of oral health has not been unnoticed by the government. The Commonwealth (Federal) government under the Howard-led Coalition in 2004 had broken tradition by placing dentistry in its universal health insurance scheme, Medicare. Known as the Chronic Disease Dental Scheme (CDDS), the program aimed to manage patients with chronic conditions as part of the Enhanced Primary Care initiative. This scheme was a landmark policy for several reasons. Besides being the first major dental policy under Medicare, the program proved to be the most expensive and controversial. Unfortunately, cost containment and problems with service provision led to its cessation in 2012 by the Gillard Labor Government. Despite being seen as a failure, the CDDS provided a unique opportunity to assess national policy in practice. By analysing the policy-relevant effects of the CDDS, important lessons can be learnt for policy development. This paper discusses these lessons and has formulated a set of principles recommended for effective oral health policy. The JERM model represents the principles of a justified, economical and research-based model of care.

Monetary Policy: Its Impact On The Profitability Of Banks In India

OpenAIRE

Punita Rao

2011-01-01

This purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of monetary policy on the profitability of banks in the context of financial sector reforms in India. We discuss the financial sector reforms and the implication of the banks, the various instruments of monetary policy in India, and the impact of monetary policy on the profitability of banks.

The potential impacts of climate-change policy on freshwater use in thermoelectric power generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chandel, Munish K.; Pratson, Lincoln F.; Jackson, Robert B.

2011-01-01

Climate change policy involving a price on carbon would change the mix of power plants and the amount of water they withdraw and consume to generate electricity. We analyze what these changes could entail for electricity generation in the United States under four climate policy scenarios that involve different costs for emitting CO 2 and different technology options for reducing emissions out to the year 2030. The potential impacts of the scenarios on the U.S. electric system are modeled using a modified version of the U.S. National Energy Modeling System and water-use factors for thermoelectric power plants derived from electric utility data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Under all the climate-policy scenarios, freshwater withdrawals decline 2-14% relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of no U.S. climate policy. Furthermore, water use decreases as the price on CO 2 under the climate policies increases. At relatively high carbon prices (>$50/tonne CO 2 ), however, retrofitting coal plants to capture CO 2 increases freshwater consumption compared to BAU in 2030. Our analysis suggests that climate policies and a carbon price will reduce both electricity generation and freshwater withdrawals compared to BAU unless a substantial number of coal plants are retrofitted to capture CO 2 . - Highlights: → We analyze the impact of climate change policy on water use for electricity generation. → Water use decreases with an increase in CO 2 allowance price. → Retrofitting of coal plants with CCS could increase water use considerably.

Simulating the impact of policy, energy prices and technological progress on the passenger car fleet in Austria-A model based analysis 2010-2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kloess, Maximilian; Mueller, Andreas

2011-01-01

This paper investigates the effects of policy, fuel prices and technological progress on the Austrian passenger car fleet in terms of energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To analyse these effects a simulation model is used. We model the car fleet from a bottom-up perspective, with a detailed coverage of vehicle specifications and propulsion technologies. The model focuses on the technological trend toward electrified propulsion systems and their potential effects on the fleet's energy consumption and GHG emissions. To represent the impact of prices and income on the development of the fleet, we combine the fleet model with top-down demand models. We developed two scenarios for the time frame 2010-2050, using two different sets of assumptions for regulatory development and conditions of increasing fossil fuel prices and continuous technological progress in vehicle propulsion technologies. The results indicate that material cuts in energy consumption and GHG emissions can be achieved with changes to the political framework for passenger cars. Appropriate taxation of fuels and cars can stabilise demand for individual motorised transport and lead to an improvement in vehicle efficiency by fostering the adoption of efficient vehicle propulsion technologies and low carbon fuels. - Highlights: → We present a simulation model for future energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in passenger car transport. → We develop scenarios up to 2050 assuming two different policy schemes. → Policy strongly affects energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in passenger car transport. → Policy can slow down growth in demand for passenger car transport. → Policy can promote the diffusion of more efficient propulsion technologies and low carbon fuels.

Analysis of the economic impact of different Chinese climate policy options based on a CGE model incorporating endogenous technological change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Ke; Wang Can; Chen Jining

2009-01-01

Abatement cost is the main concern for climate change mitigation and the key factor for mitigation cost is technological change. This study established an integrated economic, energy, environmental, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model representing endogenous technological change for China's climate change policy analysis. This study analyzed and compared the economic impact of different approaches to mitigation commitments as well as the potential role of technological change in the formulation of mitigation targets and commitments, taking into account China's climate policy-making needs based on the current international climate negotiation process. The results show that, absolute emission limits similar to the Kyoto Protocol will seriously impede the future economic development of China, while the impact of an 80% reduction in carbon intensity, forecast for 2050 based on the 2005 level, is relatively small. Technological change can promote economic growth, improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon intensity per unit of output through the substitution of production factors. Consequently it can reduce marginal abatement cost and related GDP loss by mitigation. At the same time it can increase mitigation potentials and extend the emission reduction amount, showing that consideration of the impact of technological change when deciding the emission reduction targets is necessary.

EPIC Forest LAI Dataset: LAI estimates generated from the USDA Environmental Policy Impact Climate (EPIC) model (a widely used, field-scale, biogeochemical model) on four forest complexes spanning three physiographic provinces in VA and NC.

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This data depicts calculated and validated LAI estimates generated from the USDA Environmental Policy Impact Climate (EPIC) model (a widely used, field-scale,...

Impact of Attendance Policy on Adult College Learners

Science.gov (United States)

Carr, Tracinal S.

2014-01-01

This qualitative evaluation focused on the problem of student attrition at a northern California college, its attendance policy, the policy's impact on previous students' decisions to persist in school, and on administrators' attempts to increase retention. The purpose for this study was to evaluate the participants' perceptions about their…

EU climate policy up to 2020. An economic impact assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boehringer, Christoph [Department of Economics, University of Oldenburg (Germany); Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Loeschel, Andreas [Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Moslener, Ulf [KfW Development Bank, Frankfurt (Germany); Rutherford, Thomas F. [Center for Energy Policy and Economy (CEPE), ETH Zuerich (Switzerland)

2009-07-01

In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost. (author)

EU climate policy up to 2020: An economic impact assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boehringer, Christoph, E-mail: boehringer@uni-oldenburg.d [Department of Economics, University of Oldenburg (Germany); Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Loeschel, Andreas [Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Moslener, Ulf [KfW Development Bank, Frankfurt (Germany); Rutherford, Thomas F. [Center for Energy Policy and Economy (CEPE), ETH Zuerich (Switzerland)

2009-07-01

In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost.

EU climate policy up to 2020. An economic impact assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boehringer, Christoph; Loeschel, Andreas; Moslener, Ulf; Rutherford, Thomas F.

2009-01-01

In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost. (author)

Climate change impacts on urban wildfire and flooding policy in Idaho: a comparative policy network perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Lindquist, E.; Pierce, J. L.

2013-12-01

Numerous frameworks and models exist for understanding the dynamics of the public policy process. A policy network approach considers how and why stakeholders and interests pay attention to and engage in policy problems, such as flood control or developing resilient and fire resistant landscapes. Variables considered in this approach include what the relationships are between these stakeholders, how they influence the process and outcomes, communication patterns within and between policy networks, and how networks change as a result of new information, science, or public interest and involvement with the problem. This approach is useful in understanding the creation of natural hazards policy as new information or situations, such as projected climate change impacts, influence and disrupt the policy process and networks. Two significant natural hazard policy networks exist in the semi-arid Treasure Valley region of Southwest Idaho, which includes the capitol city of Boise and the surrounding metropolitan area. Boise is situated along the Boise River and adjacent to steep foothills; this physiographic setting makes Boise vulnerable to both wildfires at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) and flooding. Both of these natural hazards have devastated the community in the past and floods and fires are projected to occur with more frequency in the future as a result of projected climate change impacts in the region. While both hazards are fairly well defined problems, there are stark differences lending themselves to comparisons across their respective networks. The WUI wildfire network is large and well developed, includes stakeholders from all levels of government, the private sector and property owner organizations, has well defined objectives, and conducts promotional and educational activities as part of its interaction with the public in order to increase awareness and garner support for its policies. The flood control policy network, however, is less defined

Impacts of subsidy policies on vaccination decisions in contact networks

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hai-Feng; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Xu, Xiao-Ke; Small, Michael; Wang, Lin; Wang, Bing-Hong

2013-07-01

To motivate more people to participate in vaccination campaigns, various subsidy policies are often supplied by government and the health sectors. However, these external incentives may also alter the vaccination decisions of the broader public, and hence the choice of incentive needs to be carefully considered. Since human behavior and the networking-constrained interactions among individuals significantly impact the evolution of an epidemic, here we consider the voluntary vaccination on human contact networks. To this end, two categories of typical subsidy policies are considered: (1) under the free subsidy policy, the total amount of subsidy is distributed to a certain fraction of individual and who are vaccinated without personal cost, and (2) under the partial-offset subsidy policy, each vaccinated person is offset by a certain amount of subsidy. A vaccination decision model based on evolutionary game theory is established to study the effects of these different subsidy policies on disease control. Simulations suggest that, because the partial-offset subsidy policy encourages more people to take vaccination, its performance is significantly better than that of the free subsidy policy. However, an interesting phenomenon emerges in the partial-offset scenario: with limited amount of total subsidy, a moderate subsidy rate for each vaccinated individual can guarantee the group-optimal vaccination, leading to the maximal social benefits, while such an optimal phenomenon is not evident for the free subsidy scenario.

Impact of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy on Indonesian Stock Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rossanto Dwi HANDOYO

2015-05-01

Full Text Available This paper attempts to investigate the effect of fiscal and monetary policy on Indonesian Stock price as well as main sectors stock price such as agricultural, mining, manufacture, and financial sector indexes. We consider the world oil price as a foreign variable that will influence domestic economy as in regular small open economy model. In this paper, we employ the Monte Carlo algorithm to Near-SVAR models (If some of the VAR equations have regressors not included in the others. We find that there is a positive stock price response to monetary policy shock both aggregated and sectoral stock price. In term of interaction between fiscal policy shock and stock market, we find that all sectors respond negative relationship. From this empirical finding, fiscal policy crowd out private sector activity in market, thus, its effect will be impotent in economy. We also provide the evidence that not only both policies are able to influence the stock price individually, but also the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy is important in explaining stock market performance.

Coal transport demand in Western Europe and Japan: Impacts of energy market liberalisation and climate policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Golombek, Rolf; Kittelsen, Sverre A.C.; Maestad, Ottar

2005-12-01

Western Europe and Japan are among the main importers of coal. Climate policies following the Kyoto agreement are creating pressure to substitute away from coal and turn to less emission intensive energy sources. At the same time, liberalizations of energy markets in Europe and Japan are likely to cause reduced electricity prices, which will boost the overall demand for electricity. This paper analyses the combined effect of electricity market liberalization and climate policies on the international coal trade. Using the numerical equilibrium model LIBEMOD, we find that while liberalization of electricity markets will imply a large increase in aggregate coal transport demand, the negative impact of climate policies may be even larger, in particular if Russia and Ukraine utilise their market power in the market for emission permits. If this market power is exploited, the total effect of liberalisation and climate policy - when including the impact of general economic growth - is a 20% reduction in aggregate coal transport between 2000 and 2010. Further, impacts differ markedly between Western Europe and Japan. A main difference is that liberalisation has a much more positive - and climate policies have a much stronger negative - impact on steam coal demand in Western Europe than in Japan

Computable general equilibrium models for sustainability impact assessment: Status quo and prospects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boehringer, Christoph; Loeschel, Andreas

2006-01-01

Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) of economic, environmental, and social effects triggered by governmental policies has become a central requirement for policy design. The three dimensions of SIA are inherently intertwined and subject to trade-offs. Quantification of trade-offs for policy decision support requires numerical models in order to assess systematically the interference of complex interacting forces that affect economic performance, environmental quality, and social conditions. This paper investigates the use of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models for measuring the impacts of policy interference on policy-relevant economic, environmental, and social (institutional) indicators. We find that operational CGE models used for energy-economy-environment (E3) analyses have a good coverage of central economic indicators. Environmental indicators such as energy-related emissions with direct links to economic activities are widely covered, whereas indicators with complex natural science background such as water stress or biodiversity loss are hardly represented. Social indicators stand out for very weak coverage, mainly because they are vaguely defined or incommensurable. Our analysis identifies prospects for future modeling in the field of integrated assessment that link standard E3-CGE-models to themespecific complementary models with environmental and social focus. (author)

The near-term impacts of carbon mitigation policies on manufacturing industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morgenstern, Richard D.; Ho Mun; Shih, J.-S.; Zhang Xuehua

2004-01-01

Who pays for new policies to reduce carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions in the United States? This paper considers a slice of the question by examining the near-term impact on domestic manufacturing industries of both upstream (economy-wide) and downstream (electric power industry only) carbon mitigation policies. Detailed Census data on the electricity use of four-digit manufacturing industries are combined with input-output information on inter-industry purchases to paint a detailed picture of carbon use, including effects on final demand. Regional information on electricity supply and use by region is also incorporated. A relatively simple model is developed which yields estimates of the relative burdens within the manufacturing sector of alternative carbon policies. Overall, the principal conclusion is that within the manufacturing sector (which by definition excludes coal production and electricity generation), only a small number of industries would bear a disproportionate short-term burden of a carbon tax or similar policy. Not surprisingly, an electricity-only policy affects very different manufacturing industries than an economy-wide carbon tax

Anticipating the uncertain: economic modeling and climate change policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jensen, Svenn

2012-11-01

With this thesis I wish to contribute to the understanding of how uncertainty and the anticipation of future events by economic actors affect climate policies. The thesis consists of four papers. Two papers are analytical models which explicitly consider that emissions are caused by extracting scarce fossil fuels which in the future must be replaced by clean technologies. The other two are so called numerical integrated assessment models. Such models represent the world economy, the climate system and the interactions between those two quantitatively, complementing more abstract theoretical work. Should policy makers discriminate between subsidizing renewable energy sources such as wind or solar power, and technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS)? Focusing only on the dynamic supply of fossil fuels and hence Co{sub 2}, we find here that cheaper future renewables cause extraction to speed up, lower costs of CCS may delay it. CCS hence may dampen the dynamic inefficiency caused by the absence of comprehensive climate policies today. Does it matter whether uncertainty about future damage assessment is due to scientific complexities or stems from the political process? In paper two, I find that political and scientific uncertainties have opposing effects on the incentives to investment in renewables and the extraction of fossil fuels: The prospect of scientific learning about the climate system increases investment incentives and, ceteris paribus, slows extraction down; uncertainty about future political constellations does the opposite. The optimal carbon tax under scientific uncertainty equals expected marginal damages, whereas political uncertainty demands a tax below marginal damages that decreases over time. Does uncertainty about economic growth impact optimal climate policy today? Here we are the first to consistently analyze how uncertainty about future economic growth affects optimal emission reductions and the optimal social cost of carbon. We

Interaction between fiscal and monetary policy in a dynamic nonlinear model.

Science.gov (United States)

Bertella, Mario A; Rego, Henio A; Neris, Celso; Silva, Jonathas N; Podobnik, Boris; Stanley, H Eugene

2015-01-01

The objective of this study is to verify the dynamics between fiscal policy, measured by public debt, and monetary policy, measured by a reaction function of a central bank. Changes in monetary policies due to deviations from their targets always generate fiscal impacts. We examine two policy reaction functions: the first related to inflation targets and the second related to economic growth targets. We find that the condition for stable equilibrium is more restrictive in the first case than in the second. We then apply our simulation model to Brazil and United Kingdom and find that the equilibrium is unstable in the Brazilian case but stable in the UK case.

The labor impacts of policy change in health care: how federal policy transformed home health organizations and their labor practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Szasz, A

1990-01-01

Health care organizations are highly labor-intensive; policies designed to stimulate organizational change are likely to have labor impacts. This paper examines the labor effects of policy change in home health care. Major federal home care policy trends since 1980 have spurred the evolution of the typical home care provider toward greater organizational and market rationality. Greater managerial sophistication has introduced changes in management/labor relations. Survey data from the 1986 DRG Impact Study are used to show how the pressure of cost-containment policies has pushed agencies to cut labor costs by increasing workloads, managerial supervision, and control of the work process. Research on the effects of recent policy change in health care has to date focused primarily on potential client effects. Labor impacts are rarely examined and are poorly understood at the time that policy is made. Findings in this article suggest that these issues deserve greater, more systematic attention, because unanticipated labor impacts may prove to be significant impediments to the realization of intended policy goals.

The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mercure, J.-F.; Pollitt, H.; Chewpreecha, U.; Salas, P.; Foley, A.M.; Holden, P.B.; Edwards, N.R.

2014-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of climate policy instruments for the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector in a non-equilibrium economic and technology diffusion perspective. Energy markets are driven by innovation, path-dependent technology choices and diffusion. However, conventional optimisation models lack detail on these aspects and have limited ability to address the effectiveness of policy interventions because they do not represent decision-making. As a result, known effects of technology lock-ins are liable to be underestimated. In contrast, our approach places investor decision-making at the core of the analysis and investigates how it drives the diffusion of low-carbon technology in a highly disaggregated, hybrid, global macroeconometric model, FTT:Power-E3MG. Ten scenarios to 2050 of the electricity sector in 21 regions exploring combinations of electricity policy instruments are analysed, including their climate impacts. We show that in a diffusion and path-dependent perspective, the impact of combinations of policies does not correspond to the sum of impacts of individual instruments: synergies exist between policy tools. We argue that the carbon price required to break the current fossil technology lock-in can be much lower when combined with other policies, and that a 90% decarbonisation of the electricity sector by 2050 is affordable without early scrapping. - Highlights: • Policy scenarios for decarbonising of the global electricity sector by 90%. • Strong synergies exist between different energy policy instruments. • Carbon pricing not a sufficient policy instrument for large emissions reductions. • Improved agent behaviour assumptions for energy modelling beyond cost-optimisation

Probabilistic Decision Tools for Determining Impacts of Agricultural Development Policy on Household Nutrition

Science.gov (United States)

Whitney, Cory W.; Lanzanova, Denis; Muchiri, Caroline; Shepherd, Keith D.; Rosenstock, Todd S.; Krawinkel, Michael; Tabuti, John R. S.; Luedeling, Eike

2018-03-01

Governments around the world have agreed to end hunger and food insecurity and to improve global nutrition, largely through changes to agriculture and food systems. However, they are faced with a lot of uncertainty when making policy decisions, since any agricultural changes will influence social and biophysical systems, which could yield either positive or negative nutrition outcomes. We outline a holistic probability modeling approach with Bayesian Network (BN) models for nutritional impacts resulting from agricultural development policy. The approach includes the elicitation of expert knowledge for impact model development, including sensitivity analysis and value of information calculations. It aims at a generalizable methodology that can be applied in a wide range of contexts. To showcase this approach, we develop an impact model of Vision 2040, Uganda's development strategy, which, among other objectives, seeks to transform the country's agricultural landscape from traditional systems to large-scale commercial agriculture. Model results suggest that Vision 2040 is likely to have negative outcomes for the rural livelihoods it intends to support; it may have no appreciable influence on household hunger but, by influencing preferences for and access to quality nutritional foods, may increase the prevalence of micronutrient deficiency. The results highlight the trade-offs that must be negotiated when making decisions regarding agriculture for nutrition, and the capacity of BNs to make these trade-offs explicit. The work illustrates the value of BNs for supporting evidence-based agricultural development decisions.

The impact of Nordic countries' family friendly policies on employment, wages, and children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gupta, Nabanita Datta; Smith, Nina; Verner, Mette

2008-01-01

-friendly policies mainly directed towards giving mothers the right to be on long paid maternal leave have adverse effects on women's wages with consequences for gender equality. Indeed, extensive family-friendly schemes may even have created a `system-based glass ceiling' hindering women's career progression......The Nordic countries at the same time exhibit a remarkably high participation rate of mothers and a more moderate decline in fertility rates compared to other Western countries. This has been attributed to the fact that the welfare state model and, especially, the family friendly policies chosen...... in the Nordic countries are unique. In this paper we evaluate the impact of Nordic countries' family friendly policies on employment, wages and children's well-being. We demonstrate that, although the `Nordic model' has been successful in boosting female employment, it is a costly solution. Furthermore, family...

Impact of reserves information on formulating government policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ekelund, M.W.; Anderson, B.; Khan, M.; Hudson, B.

1997-01-01

Policies regarding the development and production of Alberta's mineral resources such as oil, gas, and bitumen, are developed by the Alberta Ministry of Energy. The Ministry is divided into the Energy and Utilities Board (EUB) and the Department of Energy. The EUB deals with conservation, production measurement and reporting, environmental issues and some public utility issues. The Department of Energy deals with determining the appropriate fiscal and tenure regimes, market effectiveness issues and collection of Alberta's share of production. Reserve estimates are used for policy development and implementation purposes. The impact of some doubts regarding the reliability of reserves information and its impact on provincial policy recommendations were highlighted. Examples were drawn from bitumen reserves determination in the Athabasca Oil Sands area, enhanced oil recovery programs within the conventional oil sector, and royalty formulation within the conventional oil and gas sectors

The impact of uncertainty on optimal emission policies

Science.gov (United States)

Botta, Nicola; Jansson, Patrik; Ionescu, Cezar

2018-05-01

We apply a computational framework for specifying and solving sequential decision problems to study the impact of three kinds of uncertainties on optimal emission policies in a stylized sequential emission problem.We find that uncertainties about the implementability of decisions on emission reductions (or increases) have a greater impact on optimal policies than uncertainties about the availability of effective emission reduction technologies and uncertainties about the implications of trespassing critical cumulated emission thresholds. The results show that uncertainties about the implementability of decisions on emission reductions (or increases) call for more precautionary policies. In other words, delaying emission reductions to the point in time when effective technologies will become available is suboptimal when these uncertainties are accounted for rigorously. By contrast, uncertainties about the implications of exceeding critical cumulated emission thresholds tend to make early emission reductions less rewarding.

Cumulative Impacts of Energy and Climate Change Policies on Carbon Leakage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Varma, A.; Milnes, R.; Miller, K.; Williams, E. [AEA Technology plc, London (United Kingdom); De Bruyn, S.; Brinke, L. [CE Delft, Delft (Netherlands)

2012-02-15

Carbon leakage occurs when climate change policy aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions in one country leads to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions in a country that is not bound by these policies. Given that climate change is a global issue, carbon leakage impacts upon the effectiveness of climate change policies. This independent study examines the cumulative impact of climate change policies on carbon leakage. The report brings together findings and analysis from a wide range of primary literature in this area and where possible, conclusions relevant to the UK are drawn.

Impacts of low-carbon power policy on carbon mitigation in Guangdong Province, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheng, Beibei; Dai, Hancheng; Wang, Peng; Xie, Yang; Chen, Li; Zhao, Daiqing; Masui, Toshihiko

2016-01-01

This paper analyzes the impacts of the low-carbon policy in the power sector of Guangdong Province in China on its energy and carbon emission targets by 2020, as well as their costs and co-benefits, using a regional CGE model with seven scenarios: business as usual (BaU), renewable energy (RE), renewable energy and natural gas (RE–NG), CAP only (CAP), CAP and RE–NG (CAP–RE–NG), carbon emission trading (ETS), and ETS with RE–NG (ETS–RE–NG). Analysis results reveal that provincial energy and carbon intensity targets can be achieved in the assumed carbon mitigation scenarios with carbon cap, ETS, and clean energy development policies. While the carbon constraint exerts negative impacts on the economy, GDP loss could be lowered by the ETS and RE policies. The RE scenario is more economically efficient than the ETS scenario, and coupling the RE and ETS scenarios appears to be the most economically efficient scenario to achieve the desired carbon and energy intensity targets. One of the benefits of the low-carbon policy is its improvement of the energy security of Guangdong in terms of reduced reliance on external coal and oil; in particular, Guangdong coal consumption could peak in 2017–2019. - Highlights: • This study analyzes the low carbon policy in the power sector in Guangdong of China. • The role of power sector in achieving carbon and energy intensity target is shown. • Renewable energy and natural gas are very important for Guangdong Province. • Additional efforts in other sectors are needed to achieve the intensity targets. • The mitigation cost and economic impacts are assessed under various policy settings.

78 FR 6322 - Economic Impact Policy

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-30

... EXPORT-IMPORT BANK Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export..., France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Indonesia, Italy, Kenya, Malaysia, Philippines, Poland, Romania... comments on this transaction by email to economic[email protected] or by mail to 811 Vermont Avenue NW...

Interaction between Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Dynamic Nonlinear Model

Science.gov (United States)

Bertella, Mario A.; Rego, Henio A.; Neris, Celso; Silva, Jonathas N.; Podobnik, Boris; Stanley, H. Eugene

2015-01-01

The objective of this study is to verify the dynamics between fiscal policy, measured by public debt, and monetary policy, measured by a reaction function of a central bank. Changes in monetary policies due to deviations from their targets always generate fiscal impacts. We examine two policy reaction functions: the first related to inflation targets and the second related to economic growth targets. We find that the condition for stable equilibrium is more restrictive in the first case than in the second. We then apply our simulation model to Brazil and United Kingdom and find that the equilibrium is unstable in the Brazilian case but stable in the UK case. PMID:25799581

The Impact of United States Monetary Policy in the Crude Oil futures market

Science.gov (United States)

Padilla-Padilla, Fernando M.

This research examines the empirical impact the United States monetary policy, through the federal fund interest rate, has on the volatility in the crude oil price in the futures market. Prior research has shown how macroeconomic events and variables have impacted different financial markets within short and long--term movements. After testing and decomposing the variables, the two stationary time series were analyzed using a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR). The empirical evidence shows, with statistical significance, a direct relationship when explaining crude oil prices as function of fed fund rates (t-1) and an indirect relationship when explained as a function of fed fund rates (t-2). These results partially address the literature review lacunas within the topic of the existing implication monetary policy has within the crude oil futures market.

Assessing the Impact of Financial Policies on Nigeria's Economic ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Assessing the Impact of Financial Policies on Nigeria's Economic Growth. ... Furthermore, it calls for effective implementation and monitoring of financial policies as well as adequate supervision of the financial sector by the relevant authorities to avoid lopsided compliance with financial and monetary guidelines. Keywords: ...

Impacts of Bioenergy Policies on Land-Use Change in Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stanley U. Okoro

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In recent years, bioenergy policies have increased the competition for land as well as the risk of adverse environmental impacts resulting from deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs. Primary land-use objectives confronting society today include meeting the growing demand for agricultural products, especially energy crops, preserving essential ecosystem services for human well-being and long-run agrarian production, and contributing to the climate policy target. Here, future agricultural, societal and environmental consequences of bioenergy policies under different global climate and societal development scenarios were assessed using a novel Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model for Nigeria (NGA–FASOM. The results reveal that, in Nigeria, meeting emission reduction requires an implementation of a minimum carbon price of $80/ton within the forest and agricultural sectors. A carbon price alone is not sufficient to preserve the remaining forests and pasture land in Nigeria when bioenergy is subsidized. Furthermore, the result shows that subsidy on bioenergy does not have any significant effect on the total social welfare. The findings in this study provide a guide for policymakers in designing appropriate policies addressing bioenergy industry issues in Nigeria.

Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2011 - part 2)

Science.gov (United States)

The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - estimating impacts and valuing damages on a sectoral basis.

Evaluation of the impact of environmental public policy measures on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the French residential sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charlier, Dorothée; Risch, Anna

2012-01-01

A cut in energy consumption by 2050 to reach 50 kWh pe /m 2 /year and reduce GHG emissions by 75% are important objectives of environmental policy in France. The residential sector represents a significant potential source of energy savings. In this paper, our main objective is to construct a simulation model and to evaluate the impact of environmental public policy measures. We model energy consumption and GHG emissions, the decision to invest in energy saving renovations and the dynamics of the housing stock. Particular attention is paid to household investment decisions regarding home renovation. To generate the dynamics and the structure of the housing stock through 2050, we introduce socioeconomic variables that alter the number of renovations and new constructions. This study has three major outputs. First, we estimate the energy consumption and GHG emissions of the residential sector in France through 2050. Second, we study the impact of environmental public policy measures. Lastly, we propose different means to reach the objectives. The results show that while current policies are effective, they are not sufficient to reach the objectives. - Highlights: ► We model the decision to invest in energy saving renovations and dynamics of the housing stock. ► We model and estimate the energy consumption and GHG emissions. ► We study the impact of current environmental public policy measures ► We simulate different public policies to reach the French objectives ► Results show that current policies are effective but not sufficient.

78 FR 30920 - Economic Impact Policy

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-23

... EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of the United States has received an application for a $650 million long... Asian Markets including: China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. Interested parties may submit comments on this...

78 FR 37539 - Economic Impact Policy

Science.gov (United States)

2013-06-21

... the export of approximately $74 million in U.S. semiconductor manufacturing equipment to a dedicated foundry in China. The U.S. exports will enable the dedicated foundry to increase existing 300mm (non-DRAM... EXPORT-IMPORT BANK Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export...

78 FR 34660 - Economic Impact Policy

Science.gov (United States)

2013-06-10

... guarantee to support the export of approximately $110.4 million worth of aluminum beverage cans and ends manufacturing equipment to China. The U.S. exports will enable the Chinese company to produce approximately 2.8... EXPORT-IMPORT BANK Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export...

Impact of Dividend Taxation Changing on Dividend Policy of Romanian Companies Listed on Stock Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stela JAKOVA

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to analyze factors (with an influence on value of transactions on stock exchange which induce companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange to pay dividends for period 2008 – 2015. First we will estimate five regression models, taking into account some financial and macroeconomics variables. Second we will rebuild these five regression models including a dummy variable which indicates the change of dividend tax rate. Our analyses emphasized the fact that net income, liquidity index, BET return and total assets have a significant effect on dividend payment policy which keeps their significance also after introducing the dummy variable, except the BET rate which decreased its significance. Also only the change of dividend tax rate and net income have a positively significant impact over dividend payment policy of Romanian ‘companies. The findings from this study are useful to be taken in account by the board of managers of companies when they decide the dividend policy for the company. In the same time our study extends the existing literature on this topic, by analyzing the impact of the most recent change in dividend tax rate from 2015, and also by extending the factors which affect the dividend policy of the companies listed on stock exchange.

Cross-impacts analysis development and energy policy analysis applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roop, J.M.; Scheer, R.M.; Stacey, G.S.

1986-12-01

Purpose of this report is to describe the cross-impact analysis process and microcomputer software developed for the Office of Policy, Planning, and Analysis (PPA) of DOE. First introduced in 1968, cross-impact analysis is a technique that produces scenarios of future conditions and possibilities. Cross-impact analysis has several unique attributes that make it a tool worth examining, especially in the current climate when the outlook for the economy and several of the key energy markets is uncertain. Cross-impact analysis complements the econometric, engineering, systems dynamics, or trend approaches already in use at DOE. Cross-impact analysis produces self-consistent scenarios in the broadest sense and can include interaction between the economy, technology, society and the environment. Energy policy analyses that couple broad scenarios of the future with detailed forecasting can produce more powerful results than scenario analysis or forecasts can produce alone.

Knowledge brokering on emissions modelling in Strategic Environmental Assessment of Estonian energy policy with special reference to the LEAP model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuldna, Piret; Peterson, Kaja; Kuhi-Thalfeldt, Reeli

2015-01-01

Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) serves as a platform for bringing together researchers, policy developers and other stakeholders to evaluate and communicate significant environmental and socio-economic effects of policies, plans and programmes. Quantitative computer models can facilitate knowledge exchange between various parties that strive to use scientific findings to guide policy-making decisions. The process of facilitating knowledge generation and exchange, i.e. knowledge brokerage, has been increasingly explored, but there is not much evidence in the literature on how knowledge brokerage activities are used in full cycles of SEAs which employ quantitative models. We report on the SEA process of the national energy plan with reflections on where and how the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used for knowledge brokerage on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers. Our main suggestion is that applying a quantitative model not only in ex ante, but also ex post scenario modelling and associated impact assessment can facilitate systematic and inspiring knowledge exchange process on a policy problem and capacity building of participating actors. - Highlights: • We examine the knowledge brokering on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers in a full cycle of SEA. • Knowledge exchange process can evolve at any modelling stage within SEA. • Ex post scenario modelling enables systematic knowledge exchange and learning on a policy problem

Knowledge brokering on emissions modelling in Strategic Environmental Assessment of Estonian energy policy with special reference to the LEAP model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kuldna, Piret, E-mail: piret.kuldna@seit.ee [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Peterson, Kaja [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Kuhi-Thalfeldt, Reeli [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Tallinn University of Technology, Ehitajate tee 5, Tallinn 19086 (Estonia)

2015-09-15

Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) serves as a platform for bringing together researchers, policy developers and other stakeholders to evaluate and communicate significant environmental and socio-economic effects of policies, plans and programmes. Quantitative computer models can facilitate knowledge exchange between various parties that strive to use scientific findings to guide policy-making decisions. The process of facilitating knowledge generation and exchange, i.e. knowledge brokerage, has been increasingly explored, but there is not much evidence in the literature on how knowledge brokerage activities are used in full cycles of SEAs which employ quantitative models. We report on the SEA process of the national energy plan with reflections on where and how the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used for knowledge brokerage on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers. Our main suggestion is that applying a quantitative model not only in ex ante, but also ex post scenario modelling and associated impact assessment can facilitate systematic and inspiring knowledge exchange process on a policy problem and capacity building of participating actors. - Highlights: • We examine the knowledge brokering on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers in a full cycle of SEA. • Knowledge exchange process can evolve at any modelling stage within SEA. • Ex post scenario modelling enables systematic knowledge exchange and learning on a policy problem.

Investigating the impact of agrarian policies on conflict and ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2011-07-14

Jul 14, 2011 ... Investigating the impact of agrarian policies on conflict and peacebuilding ... tourism industry, defusing the conflict impact of relative land scarcity. ... the idea — flowing from the increasingly influential "Economic Theory of War" ...

An Integrative Behavioral Model of Information Security Policy Compliance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sang Hoon Kim

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The authors found the behavioral factors that influence the organization members’ compliance with the information security policy in organizations on the basis of neutralization theory, Theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory. Depending on the theory of planned behavior, members’ attitudes towards compliance, as well as normative belief and self-efficacy, were believed to determine the intention to comply with the information security policy. Neutralization theory, a prominent theory in criminology, could be expected to provide the explanation for information system security policy violations. Based on the protection motivation theory, it was inferred that the expected efficacy could have an impact on intentions of compliance. By the above logical reasoning, the integrative behavioral model and eight hypotheses could be derived. Data were collected by conducting a survey; 194 out of 207 questionnaires were available. The test of the causal model was conducted by PLS. The reliability, validity, and model fit were found to be statistically significant. The results of the hypotheses tests showed that seven of the eight hypotheses were acceptable. The theoretical implications of this study are as follows: (1 the study is expected to play a role of the baseline for future research about organization members’ compliance with the information security policy, (2 the study attempted an interdisciplinary approach by combining psychology and information system security research, and (3 the study suggested concrete operational definitions of influencing factors for information security policy compliance through a comprehensive theoretical review. Also, the study has some practical implications. First, it can provide the guideline to support the successful execution of the strategic establishment for the implement of information system security policies in organizations. Second, it proves that the need of education and training

An integrative behavioral model of information security policy compliance.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Sang Hoon; Yang, Kyung Hoon; Park, Sunyoung

2014-01-01

The authors found the behavioral factors that influence the organization members' compliance with the information security policy in organizations on the basis of neutralization theory, Theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory. Depending on the theory of planned behavior, members' attitudes towards compliance, as well as normative belief and self-efficacy, were believed to determine the intention to comply with the information security policy. Neutralization theory, a prominent theory in criminology, could be expected to provide the explanation for information system security policy violations. Based on the protection motivation theory, it was inferred that the expected efficacy could have an impact on intentions of compliance. By the above logical reasoning, the integrative behavioral model and eight hypotheses could be derived. Data were collected by conducting a survey; 194 out of 207 questionnaires were available. The test of the causal model was conducted by PLS. The reliability, validity, and model fit were found to be statistically significant. The results of the hypotheses tests showed that seven of the eight hypotheses were acceptable. The theoretical implications of this study are as follows: (1) the study is expected to play a role of the baseline for future research about organization members' compliance with the information security policy, (2) the study attempted an interdisciplinary approach by combining psychology and information system security research, and (3) the study suggested concrete operational definitions of influencing factors for information security policy compliance through a comprehensive theoretical review. Also, the study has some practical implications. First, it can provide the guideline to support the successful execution of the strategic establishment for the implement of information system security policies in organizations. Second, it proves that the need of education and training programs suppressing

Examining Policies to Reduce Homelessness Using a General Equilibrium Model of the Housing Market

OpenAIRE

Mansur, Erin; Quigley, John M.; Raphael, Steven; Smolensky, Eugene

2003-01-01

In this paper, we use a general equilibrium simulation model to assess the potential impacts on homelessness of various housing-market policy interventions. We calibrate the model to the four largest metropolitan areas in California. We explore the welfare con- sequences and the effects on homelessness of three housing-market policy interventions: extending housing vouchers to all low-income households, subsidizing all landlords, and subsidizing those landlords who supply low-income housing. ...

The impact of government policy on preference for NEVs: The evidence from China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Xian; Wang, Ke; Hao, Yu; Fan, Jing-Li; Wei, Yi-Ming

2013-01-01

To reduce gasoline consumption and emissions, the Chinese government has introduced a series of preferential policies to encourage the purchase of new energy vehicles (NEVs). However, enthusiasm for the private purchase of NEVs appears to be very low. This timely paper addresses the need for an empirical study to explore this phenomenon by identifying purchase motivations of potential NEV consumers and examining the impact of government policies introduced to promote NEVs in China. A questionnaire survey was carried out. The acceptance of NEVs is measured in three different logistic models: the willingness of consumers to purchase NEVs, the purchasing time, and the acceptable price. The results showed that financial benefits, performance attributes, environmental awareness and psychological needs are the four most important factors influencing consumers’ acceptance of NEVs. Among these, performance attributes rather than financial benefits are the most important indicator. The moderating effect of government policies to relations between purchasing intention, time and price is not strong as respected while the policy implications are clear that the ‘public awareness of government policy’ functions as a moderator in the process of acceptance. These findings could give some hints to the government to make better NEV industry policy. - Highlights: • This paper timely studies the private purchasing behaviors of NEVs in China. • Purchase motivations of NEVs and the impact of government policies are examined. • Performance attribute is the most important indicator to acceptance of NEVs. • The moderating effect of government policies is not strong as respected

Does health intervention research have real world policy and practice impacts: testing a new impact assessment tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Gillian; Schroeder, Jacqueline; Newson, Robyn; King, Lesley; Rychetnik, Lucie; Milat, Andrew J; Bauman, Adrian E; Redman, Sally; Chapman, Simon

2015-01-01

There is a growing emphasis on the importance of research having demonstrable public benefit. Measurements of the impacts of research are therefore needed. We applied a modified impact assessment process that builds on best practice to 5 years (2003-2007) of intervention research funded by Australia's National Health and Medical Research Council to determine if these studies had post-research real-world policy and practice impacts. We used a mixed method sequential methodology whereby chief investigators of eligible intervention studies who completed two surveys and an interview were included in our final sample (n = 50), on which we conducted post-research impact assessments. Data from the surveys and interviews were triangulated with additional information obtained from documentary analysis to develop comprehensive case studies. These case studies were then summarized and the reported impacts were scored by an expert panel using criteria for four impact dimensions: corroboration; attribution, reach, and importance. Nineteen (38%) of the cases in our final sample were found to have had policy and practice impacts, with an even distribution of high, medium, and low impact scores. While the tool facilitated a rigorous and explicit criterion-based assessment of post-research impacts, it was not always possible to obtain evidence using documentary analysis to corroborate the impacts reported in chief investigator interviews. While policy and practice is ideally informed by reviews of evidence, some intervention research can and does have real world impacts that can be attributed to single studies. We recommend impact assessments apply explicit criteria to consider the corroboration, attribution, reach, and importance of reported impacts on policy and practice. Impact assessments should also allow sufficient time between impact data collection and completion of the original research and include mechanisms to obtain end-user input to corroborate claims and reduce biases

75 FR 28021 - Economic Impact Policy

Science.gov (United States)

2010-05-19

... EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of the United States has received an application for a $400 million long.... New Mexican production of ZSM will be sold in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and Brazil. Interested parties...

76 FR 79679 - Economic Impact Policy

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-22

... EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of the United States has received an application for a $74 million long..., locomotives and railcars to Canada. The U.S. exports will enable the Canadian mining company to increase...

77 FR 6563 - Economic Impact Policy

Science.gov (United States)

2012-02-08

... EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of the United States has received an application for a $1.74 billion loan... Australia. The U.S. exports will enable the Australian mining company to increase production by about 100...

76 FR 28225 - Economic Impact Policy

Science.gov (United States)

2011-05-16

... EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of the United States has received an application for a $47 million long... services to Australia. The U.S. exports will enable the Australian mining company to produce, on average...

Economic Models as Devices of Policy Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henriksen, Lasse Folke

2013-01-01

Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role...... of models in Danish economic policy, where, from the 1970s onwards, executive public servants in this area have exclusively been specialists in model design. To understand changes in economic policy, this paper starts with a discussion of whether the notion of paradigm shift is adequate. It then examines...... the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept...

The capital structure impact on forming company’s accounting policy

OpenAIRE

Česnavičiūtė, Giedrė

2011-01-01

KEWORDS: Accounting policy, accounting policy choice, disclosure of accounting policies, capital structure, financial leverage, legitimacy theory, agency theory, signal theory, stakeholder theory. The optimal structure of the capital has a huge impact assuring its goals and financial stability. The company’s appropriate situation of financial condition depends on the accounting policies formation as well. In this paper there was made the investigation of correlation of company’s capital struc...

Econometric Model of Rice Policy Based On Presidential Instruction

Science.gov (United States)

Abadi Sembiring, Surya; Hutauruk, Julia

2018-01-01

The objective of research is to build an econometric model based on Presidential Instruction rice policy. The data was monthly time series from March 2005 to September 2009. Rice policy model specification using simultaneous equation, consisting of 14 structural equations and four identity equation, which was estimated using Two Stages Least Squares (2SLS) method. The results show that: (1) an increase of government purchasing price of dried harvest paddy has a positive impact on to increase in total rice production and community rice stock, (2) an increase community rice stock lead to decrease the rice imports, (3) an increase of the realization of the distribution of subsidized ZA fertilizers and the realization of the distribution of subsidized NPK fertilizers has a positive impact on to increase in total rice production and community rice stock and to reduce rice imports, (4) the price of the dried harvest paddy is highly responsive to the water content of dried harvest paddy both the short run and long run, (5) the quantity of rice imported is highly responsive to the imported rice price, both short run and long run.

Modeling the potential impacts of different radon policies for the U.S. housing stock

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, M.D.; Ritchie, I.M.

1995-01-01

According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other public health agencies in the United States, radon may be the leading cause (along with passive smoking) of lung cancer deaths among nonsmokers. Radon is estimated to be the second leading cause of lung cancer death in smokers behind smoking-related lung cancer. EPA estimates that 7,000 to 30,000 lung cancer deaths each year are due to radon exposure. (It is implied that radon-related lung cancer deaths can be prevented by reducing radon levels below EPA's guideline levels). Current EPA radon policy is based on a strategy of education, the transfer of testing and remediation technologies to the public and private sectors, and recently proposed radon-resistant construction standards for new homes. This paper models the effectiveness of current proposed, and alternative policies for reducing radon risks in U.S. residential construction. The results of our analysis suggest that EPS's projections of 2,200 'lives saved annually' as a result of its current action level of 4 pCi/l will not be achieved with its current policy in the near future. Overall, the response of radon-related mortality to most policy options is delayed and flat due in part to the large number of houses with low radon levels and the long latency period between radon exposure and the development of cancer. The modeling results suggest that more aggressive smoking reduction programs may yield greater benefits in overall lung cancer mortality (but not reduced radon exposure) than most radon-related policies. (au)

Policy modeling for industrial energy use

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Worrell, Ernst; Park, Hi-Chun; Lee, Sang-Gon; Jung, Yonghun; Kato, Hiroyuki; Ramesohl, Stephan; Boyd, Gale; Eichhammer, Wolfgang; Nyboer, John; Jaccard, Mark; Nordqvist, Joakim; Boyd, Christopher; Klee, Howard; Anglani, Norma; Biermans, Gijs

2003-03-01

The international workshop on Policy Modeling for Industrial Energy Use was jointly organized by EETA (Professional Network for Engineering Economic Technology Analysis) and INEDIS (International Network for Energy Demand Analysis in the Industrial Sector). The workshop has helped to layout the needs and challenges to include policy more explicitly in energy-efficiency modeling. The current state-of-the-art models have a proven track record in forecasting future trends under conditions similar to those faced in the recent past. However, the future of energy policy in a climate-restrained world is likely to demand different and additional services to be provided by energy modelers. In this workshop some of the international models used to make energy consumption forecasts have been discussed as well as innovations to enable the modeling of policy scenarios. This was followed by the discussion of future challenges, new insights in the data needed to determine the inputs into energy model s, and methods to incorporate decision making and policy in the models. Based on the discussion the workshop participants came to the following conclusions and recommendations: Current energy models are already complex, and it is already difficult to collect the model inputs. Hence, new approaches should be transparent and not lead to extremely complex models that try to ''do everything''. The model structure will be determined by the questions that need to be answered. A good understanding of the decision making framework of policy makers and clear communication on the needs are essential to make any future energy modeling effort successful. There is a need to better understand the effects of policy on future energy use, emissions and the economy. To allow the inclusion of policy instruments in models, evaluation of programs and instruments is essential, and need to be included in the policy instrument design. Increased efforts are needed to better understand the

A simulation model for reliability-based appraisal of an energy policy: The case of Lebanon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamdan, H.A.; Ghajar, R.F.; Chedid, R.B.

2012-01-01

The Lebanese Electric Power System (LEPS) has been suffering from technical and financial deficiencies for decades and mirrors the problems encountered in many developing countries suffering from inadequate or no power systems planning resulting in incomplete and ill-operating infrastructure, and suffering from effects of political instability, huge debts, unavailability of financing desired projects and inefficiency in operation. The upgrade and development of the system necessitate the adoption of a comprehensive energy policy that introduces solutions to a diversity of problems addressing the technical, financial, administrative and governance aspects of the system. In this paper, an energy policy for Lebanon is proposed and evaluated based on integration between energy modeling and financial modeling. The paper utilizes the Load Modification Technique (LMT) as a probabilistic tool to assess the impact of policy implementation on energy production, overall cost, technical/commercial losses and reliability. Scenarios reflecting implementation of policy projects are assessed and their impacts are compared with business-as-usual scenarios which assume no new investment is to take place in the sector. Conclusions are drawn on the usefulness of the proposed evaluation methodology and the effectiveness of the adopted energy policy for Lebanon and other developing countries suffering from similar power system problems. - Highlights: ► Evaluation methodology based on a probabilistic simulation tool is proposed. ► A business-as-usual scenario for a given study period of the LEPS was modeled. ► Mitigation scenarios reflecting implementation of the energy policy are modeled. ► Policy simulated and compared with business-as-usual scenarios of the LEPS. ► Results reflect usefulness of proposed methodology and the adopted energy policy.

Modelling the economic impacts of addressing climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-01-01

This Power Point report presents highlights of the latest economic modelling of Canada's Kyoto commitment to address climate change. It presents framework assumptions and a snapshot under 4 scenarios. The objective of this report is to evaluate the national, sectoral, provincial and territorial impacts of the federal reference case policy package in which the emissions reduction target is 170 Mt from a business-as-usual scenario. The reference case policy package also includes 30 Mt of sinks from current packages of which 20 Mt are derived from the forestry sector and the remainder from agricultural sector. The report examined 4 scenarios based on 2 international carbon prices ($10 and $50) per tonne of carbon dioxide in 2010. The scenarios were also based on the fiscal assumptions that climate change initiatives and revenue losses would directly affect the governments' balances, or that the government balances are maintained by increasing personal income tax. A comparison of impacts under each of the 4 scenarios to 2010 was presented. The model presents impacts on GDP, employment, disposable income per household, and energy prices. 4 tabs., 4 figs

A multi-modal network approach to model public transport accessibility impacts of bicycle-train integration policies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Geurs, Karst Teunis; La Paix Puello, Lissy Cesarina; van Weperen, Sander

2016-01-01

In the Netherlands, the bicycle plays an important in station access and, to a lesser extent, in station egress. There is however fairly little knowledge in the potential effects of bicycle-train integration policies. The aim of this paper is to examine the impacts of bicycle-train integration

IMPACTS OF GROUP-BASED SIGNAL CONTROL POLICY ON DRIVER BEHAVIOR AND INTERSECTION SAFETY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Keshuang TANG

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Unlike the typical stage-based policy commonly applied in Japan, the group-based control (often called movement-based in the traffic control industry in Japan refers to such a control pattern that the controller is capable of separately allocating time to each signal group instead of stage based on traffic demand. In order to investigate its applicability at signalized intersections in Japan, an intersection located in Yokkaichi City of Mie Prefecture was selected as an experimental application site by the Japan Universal Traffic Management Society (UTMS. Based on the data collected at the intersection before and after implementing the group-based control policy respectively, this study evaluated the impacts of such a policy on driver behavior and intersection safety. To specify those impacts, a few models utilizing cycle-based data were first developed to interpret the occurrence probability and rate of red-light-running (RLR. Furthermore, analyses were performed on the yellow-entry time (Ye of the last cleared vehicle and post encroachment time (PET during the phase switching. Conclusions supported that the group-based control policy, along with certain other factors, directly or indirectly influenced the RLR behavior of through and right-turn traffics. Meanwhile, it has potential safety benefits as well, indicated by the declined Ye and increased PET values.

Estimating Non-Market Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rothman, D.S.; Amelung, B.; Polome, P.

2003-01-01

A number of studies over the past few decades have attempted to estimate the potential impacts of climate change and climate policy. For reasons related to, inter alia, our incomplete understanding of the workings of many natural and social systems, the tremendous spatial and temporal variability in these systems, and the long time frames over which the issue of climate change will play out, there are large degrees of uncertainty in these estimates. Some of the most rancorous debates, however, have focused on those studies that have attempted to place economic values on these impacts. This should not be surprising as the outcomes of these studies have played an important role in the debates over climate policy. Rightly or wrongly, the estimates presented in these studies are often held up against similar estimates of the costs of mitigating against climate change. The process of economic valuation of environmental and social issues is still relatively young, much less its application to the potential impacts of climate change and climate policy. Issues such as climate change push existing techniques to their limits, and possibly beyond. Among the topics that have raised the most concern are the choice of the proper baseline against which to make comparisons, the treatment of uncertainty in human and natural systems, incomplete accounting, the actual valuation of specific impacts, and the aggregation of impacts over time and across widely differing societies. Some of the more recent studies have tried to address these issues, albeit not always satisfactorily. One aspect that makes the economic valuation of environmental and social issues difficult is that it requires addressing impacts that are not typically associated with economic markets, so called nonmarket impacts. In addition to not being traded in markets, many of these impacts affect goods and services that have the characteristic of being public goods, i.e. it is not possible to restrict their use to a

DYNAMO-HIA--a Dynamic Modeling tool for generic Health Impact Assessments.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan K Lhachimi

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Currently, no standard tool is publicly available that allows researchers or policy-makers to quantify the impact of policies using epidemiological evidence within the causal framework of Health Impact Assessment (HIA. A standard tool should comply with three technical criteria (real-life population, dynamic projection, explicit risk-factor states and three usability criteria (modest data requirements, rich model output, generally accessible to be useful in the applied setting of HIA. With DYNAMO-HIA (Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment, we introduce such a generic software tool specifically designed to facilitate quantification in the assessment of the health impacts of policies. METHODS AND RESULTS: DYNAMO-HIA quantifies the impact of user-specified risk-factor changes on multiple diseases and in turn on overall population health, comparing one reference scenario with one or more intervention scenarios. The Markov-based modeling approach allows for explicit risk-factor states and simulation of a real-life population. A built-in parameter estimation module ensures that only standard population-level epidemiological evidence is required, i.e. data on incidence, prevalence, relative risks, and mortality. DYNAMO-HIA provides a rich output of summary measures--e.g. life expectancy and disease-free life expectancy--and detailed data--e.g. prevalences and mortality/survival rates--by age, sex, and risk-factor status over time. DYNAMO-HIA is controlled via a graphical user interface and is publicly available from the internet, ensuring general accessibility. We illustrate the use of DYNAMO-HIA with two example applications: a policy causing an overall increase in alcohol consumption and quantifying the disease-burden of smoking. CONCLUSION: By combining modest data needs with general accessibility and user friendliness within the causal framework of HIA, DYNAMO-HIA is a potential standard tool for health impact assessment based

Changes in the Medicare home health care market: the impact of reimbursement policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Sunha; Davitt, Joan K

2009-03-01

The Balanced Budget Act of 1997 introduced 2 new reimbursement structures, the Interim Payment System (IPS, 1997-2000) and the Prospective Payment System (PPS, begun October 2000) for Medicare home health agencies (HHAs) under the fee-for-service program. This article describes and compares the impact of these changes on the Medicare home health market from a period before the BBA through the IPS and PPS in relation to agency characteristics. A secondary analysis of 1996, 1999, and 2002 Provider of Services data was conducted on all Medicare-certified HHAs. Frequencies and rates of change were calculated by agency characteristics to describe changes in the number of active agencies through those years. Logistic regression models were used to compare factors associated with market exits under different payment systems. The results indicate dramatic but disproportional changes in response to the IPS and the PPS among Medicare home health care agencies. Agency closures were greater and market entries fewer during the IPS, but more branch offices/subunits were closed during the PPS. Proprietary and freestanding agencies experienced greater volatility throughout, with the greatest number of closures seen in Region VI (Dallas). These results demonstrate the direct impact of policy changes on the home health care market and highlight the need to evaluate policy changes to understand both intended and unintended impacts on health markets. Future research should analyze the effect of these policy changes on other healthcare providers and systems and their impact on health outcomes for Medicare beneficiaries.

The Mass Media Influence on the Impact of Health Policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cătălin BABA

2007-02-01

Full Text Available The theme of this study is a distinct examination of the issues regarding health policy, social representations and mass media. The analysis of the mass media influence on the impact of health policy leads to a portrayal of the related programs and the way they are received by citizens through mass media. Owing to the mass media quality to be an indicator of democracy it is very important to study its role in setting people daily agenda considering how it is able to maintain and create trends merely through recurrent messages. The issues frequently conveyed by media industry influences citizens’ interest with regard to community, producing effects on public policy. We must bear in mind that the more persistent in media they are, the more relevant for community this issues will be. The authors of the study put forward a method through which diverse programmes can be analysed. A comparative analysis of mass media and citizens’ social representations and its findings provide information about the influence between them. According to agenda setting theory and many international studies on health policy the authors conclude that mass media institution highly influence the impact of the health policy in health. Moreover, it is important to mention that the impact refers to all the stages of a policy-making: beginning with the problem identification and ending with the evaluation of the implementation process.

Institutionalizing policy-level health impact assessment in Europe: is coupling health impact assessment with strategic environmental assessment the next step forward?

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, John; Parry, Jayne; Scully, Edward

2005-06-01

European Union (EU) Member States are interested in using health impact assessment (HIA) as a means of safeguarding their obligations to protect human health under the 1997 Treaty of Amsterdam. However, several have encountered difficulties institutionalizing HIA with the policy-making process. As a consequence, the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Europe has suggested coupling HIA with strategic environmental assessment (SEA). Traditionally, the incorporation of HIA into other forms of impact assessment has been resisted, for fear of losing its focus on health issues to environmental concerns, and compromising its social model of health with the introduction of biophysical indicators. But can these fears be substantiated? In this paper, we investigate the grounds for such concerns by reviewing the relevant policy documents and departmental guidelines of four non-European countries that have considered the use of integrated assessment. We found that the case for associating HIA with SEA in Europe is strong, and offers potential solutions to problems of screening, theoretical framework, causal pathways and ready entry to the policy process. Coupling HIA with SEA may thus be the next step forward in a longer journey towards institutionalizing HIA as an independent policy-linked device.

Transport policy and health inequalities: a health impact assessment of Edinburgh's transport policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Gorman, D; Douglas, M J; Conway, L; Noble, P; Hanlon, P

2003-01-01

Health impact assessment (HIA) can be used to examine the relationships between inequalities and health. This HIA of Edinburgh's transport policy demonstrates how HIA can examine how different transport policies can affect different population groupings to varying degrees. In this case, Edinburgh's economy is based on tourism, financial services and Government bodies. These need a good transport infrastructure, which maintains a vibrant city centre. A transport policy that promotes walking, cycling and public transport supports this and is also good for health. The HIA suggested that greater spend on public transport and supporting sustainable modes of transport was beneficial to health, and offered scope to reduce inequalities. This message was understood by the City Council and influenced the development of the city's transport and land-use strategies. The paper discusses how HIA can influence public policy.

Affective Policy Performance Evaluation Model: A Case of an International Trade Policy Implementation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Inwon Kang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Firms often superficially adopt policies because of governmental rules and regulations, so as to avoid penalties or to gain benefits. However, the evaluation and characterization of those kinds of adoptions as policy performance distorts the true level of policy performance: social sustainability. This study proposes an affective policy performance evaluation model. The attitudes of employees toward adopting a policy are characterized into genuine and superficial compliance. Their behaviors are explained through voluntary and opportunistic adoptions. In order to validate the proposed model, a survey was conducted on an international trade policy target group (n = 216 for the Strategic Trade Control System (STCS, in order to understand their attitudes toward adopting the policy. The survey data was analyzed by a structural equation modeling method. The measures of the factors in the proposed model are adopted and modified from existing studies. The most effective resources of policy implementation on the firms’ genuine and superficial compliance and ultimately on the firms’ voluntary policy adoption are revealed through the analysis. Based on the results, this study presents a strategy for allocating and managing policy implementation resources to exclusively encourage firms’ trade policy adoptions.

Clean Energy Policy Analysis: Impact Analysis of Potential Clean Energy Policy Options for the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Busche, S.; Doris, E.; Braccio, R.; Lippert, D.; Finch, P.; O' Toole, D.; Fetter, J.

2010-04-01

This report provides detailed analyses of 21 clean energy policy options considered by the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative working groups for recommendation to the 2010 Hawaii State Legislature. The report considers the impact each policy may have on ratepayers, businesses, and the state in terms of energy saved, clean energy generated, and the financial costs and benefits. The analyses provide insight into the possible impacts, both qualitative and quantitative, that these policies may have in Hawaii based on the experience with these policies elsewhere. As much as possible, the analyses incorporate Hawaii-specific context to reflect the many unique aspects of energy use in the State of Hawaii.

Dynamic formulation of a top-down and bottom-up merging energy policy model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frei, Christoph W.; Haldi, P.-A.; Sarlos, G.Gerard

2003-01-01

The impact of energy policy measures is not restricted to the energy system and should therefore be analysed within an economy-wide framework, while keeping the essential details of the energy sector. The aim of this paper is to present new developments in the field of the consistent evaluation of indicators for the sustainability assessment of energy policy measures. Starting from the static concept of Boehringer (Energy Econ. 20 (1998) 233), this paper shows how the complementarity format can be used in computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling for a dynamic formulation of bottom-up and top-down approach merging models. While a hybrid approach increases the credibility of CGE models in energy policy analysis by replacing the energy sector generic functional forms with a bottom-up activity analysis based on specific technologies, the endogenous formulation of investment decisions makes an explicit description of evolving specific capital stocks and technology mixes possible. Both features are essential when assessing effects of policy measures that may be affected by structural change--which is typically the case in the long-term assessment of energy policy measures

Six challenges in modelling for public health policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C.J.E. Metcalf

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The World Health Organisation's definition of public health refers to all organized measures to prevent disease, promote health, and prolong life among the population as a whole (World Health Organization, 2014. Mathematical modelling plays an increasingly important role in helping to guide the most high impact and cost-effective means of achieving these goals. Public health programmes are usually implemented over a long period of time with broad benefits to many in the community. Clinical trials are seldom large enough to capture these effects. Observational data may be used to evaluate a programme after it is underway, but have limited value in helping to predict the future impact of a proposed policy. Furthermore, public health practitioners are often required to respond to new threats, for which there is little or no previous data on which to assess the threat. Computational and mathematical models can help to assess potential threats and impacts early in the process, and later aid in interpreting data from complex and multifactorial systems. As such, these models can be critical tools in guiding public health action. However, there are a number of challenges in achieving a successful interface between modelling and public health. Here, we discuss some of these challenges.

Obesity prevention advocacy in Australia: an analysis of policy impact on autonomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Haynes, Emily; Hughes, Roger; Reidlinger, Dianne P

2017-06-01

To explore obesity policy options recommended by stakeholders and identify their impact on individual autotomy. Qualitative and quantitative methods were used. A content analysis of submissions to the Australian Government's Inquiry into Obesity was conducted. Each recommendation was categorised by its impact on autonomy, according to existing frameworks. Chi-square test for independence was used to explore the association between autonomy and stakeholder support defined as frequency of recommendation. The extent of support for a policy option was significantly associated with impact on autonomy (pautonomy were least frequently recommended in every setting; but more likely in schools (27%) than other settings (autonomy were most widely recommended (46%). Stakeholders advocated policy options that enhance individual autonomy to a greater extent than those that diminish autonomy. Implications for public health: Targeting obesity policy options that enhance rather than diminish autonomy may be more politically acceptable across most settings, with the exception of schools where more restrictive policy options are appropriate. Re-framing options accordingly may improve leadership by government in obesity policy. © 2017 The Authors.

Water use impacts of future transport fuels: role of California's climate policy & National biofuel policies (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Teter, J.; Yeh, S.; Mishra, G. S.; Tiedeman, K.; Yang, C.

2013-12-01

-hydrologic model EPIC to capture both green water (GW) and blue water (BW) use at a ~10 square km resolution among three scenarios: (1) a counterfactual scenario with no national biofuel policy, (2) current Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a proposed national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. Inputs to EPIC are spatially explicit: (a) cropping areas and yields as projected by a partial equilibrium economic model, (b) daily weather data, (c) soil properties (d) N fertilizer application, and (e) irrigation sources and volumes, by crop (Fig 4-5). We assess the differences among biofuel scenarios from 2007-2035 along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion on prime & marginal lands (Fig 6), (2) Crop-specific & overall annual/seasonal water balances including (2a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (2b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (2c) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm3 /acre. We found differential water use impacts among biofuel scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes (2) irrigation practices, (3) feedstock water use efficiency, and (4) the longer growing season and a predominance of rainfed cultivation of dedicated biofuel feedstocks. Fig 1-6 available at the linked urls.

Neoliberal Policies and their Impact on Public Health Education: Observations on the Venezuelan Experience

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Oscar Feo

2008-11-01

Full Text Available This article discusses the impact of neoliberal policies on the training of specialists in Public Health and describes the Venezuelan experience. In Venezuela, like other countries of the American continent, Public Health Schools had been transformed from institutions under the direction of the Ministry of Health to a model in which training took place under market conditions. Education in Public Health became a private good for individual consumption, and schools, lacking official funding, survived by offering courses in a market that did not necessarily respond to a country’s health needs. The conclusion discusses the currrent Venezuelan experience, in which the State has resumed control of the training of specialists in public health, making it more democratic, and adoptng an educational model centered around practice and whose purpose is the mass training of leadership teams to bolster the National Public Health System. In order to comment on the impact of neoliberal policies on training in public health we must first briefly review the following themes: 1. Basic concepts such as neoliberalism, globalization, and health systems. 2. The impact of neoliberal reforms on health. 3. The Venezuelan situation: basic principles for the training of professionals and technicians in health within the framework of a model of independent and sovereign national development. 4. Final reflections: challenges for the coming years.

Misconduct Policies in High-Impact Biomedical Journals

Science.gov (United States)

Bosch, Xavier; Hernández, Cristina; Pericas, Juan M.; Doti, Pamela; Marušić, Ana

2012-01-01

Background It is not clear which research misconduct policies are adopted by biomedical journals. This study assessed the prevalence and content policies of the most influential biomedical journals on misconduct and procedures for handling and responding to allegations of misconduct. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study of misconduct policies of 399 high-impact biomedical journals in 27 biomedical categories of the Journal Citation Reports in December 2011. Journal websites were reviewed for information relevant to misconduct policies. Results Of 399 journals, 140 (35.1%) provided explicit definitions of misconduct. Falsification was explicitly mentioned by 113 (28.3%) journals, fabrication by 104 (26.1%), plagiarism by 224 (56.1%), duplication by 242 (60.7%) and image manipulation by 154 (38.6%). Procedures for responding to misconduct were described in 179 (44.9%) websites, including retraction, (30.8%) and expression of concern (16.3%). Plagiarism-checking services were used by 112 (28.1%) journals. The prevalences of all types of misconduct policies were higher in journals that endorsed any policy from editors’ associations, Office of Research Integrity or professional societies compared to those that did not state adherence to these policy-producing bodies. Elsevier and Wiley-Blackwell had the most journals included (22.6% and 14.8%, respectively), with Wiley journals having greater a prevalence of misconduct definition and policies on falsification, fabrication and expression of concern and Elsevier of plagiarism-checking services. Conclusions Only a third of top-ranking peer-reviewed journals had publicly-available definitions of misconduct and less than a half described procedures for handling allegations of misconduct. As endorsement of international policies from policy-producing bodies was positively associated with implementation of policies and procedures, journals and their publishers should standardize their policies globally in order to

Misconduct policies in high-impact biomedical journals.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xavier Bosch

Full Text Available It is not clear which research misconduct policies are adopted by biomedical journals. This study assessed the prevalence and content policies of the most influential biomedical journals on misconduct and procedures for handling and responding to allegations of misconduct.We conducted a cross-sectional study of misconduct policies of 399 high-impact biomedical journals in 27 biomedical categories of the Journal Citation Reports in December 2011. Journal websites were reviewed for information relevant to misconduct policies.Of 399 journals, 140 (35.1% provided explicit definitions of misconduct. Falsification was explicitly mentioned by 113 (28.3% journals, fabrication by 104 (26.1%, plagiarism by 224 (56.1%, duplication by 242 (60.7% and image manipulation by 154 (38.6%. Procedures for responding to misconduct were described in 179 (44.9% websites, including retraction, (30.8% and expression of concern (16.3%. Plagiarism-checking services were used by 112 (28.1% journals. The prevalences of all types of misconduct policies were higher in journals that endorsed any policy from editors' associations, Office of Research Integrity or professional societies compared to those that did not state adherence to these policy-producing bodies. Elsevier and Wiley-Blackwell had the most journals included (22.6% and 14.8%, respectively, with Wiley journals having greater a prevalence of misconduct definition and policies on falsification, fabrication and expression of concern and Elsevier of plagiarism-checking services.Only a third of top-ranking peer-reviewed journals had publicly-available definitions of misconduct and less than a half described procedures for handling allegations of misconduct. As endorsement of international policies from policy-producing bodies was positively associated with implementation of policies and procedures, journals and their publishers should standardize their policies globally in order to increase public trust in the

Evaluating the impacts of packaging policy in The Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rouw, M.; Worrell, E.

2011-01-01

Packaging materials are one of the largest contributors to municipal solid waste production. This paper evaluates the material impacts packaging policy in The Netherlands in the period 1986–2007. Five different voluntary agreements were implemented over this period to reduce the environmental impact

Modeling Freight Ocean Rail and Truck Transportation Flows to Support Policy Analyses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gearhart, Jared Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wang, Hao [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States); Nozick, Linda Karen [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States); Xu, Ningxiong [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)

2017-11-01

Freight transportation represents about 9.5% of GDP, is responsible for about 8% of greenhouse gas emissions and supports the import and export of about 3.6 trillion in international trade; hence it is important that our national freight transportation system is designed and operated efficiently and embodies user fees and other policies that balance costs and environmental consequences. Hence, this paper develops a mathematical model to estimate international and domestic freight flows across ocean, rail and truck modes which can be used to study the impacts of changes in our infrastructure as well as the imposition of new user fees and changes in operating policies. This model is applied to two case studies: (1) a disruption of the maritime ports at Los Angeles/Long Beach similar to the impacts that would be felt in an earthquake; and (2) implementation of new user fees at the California ports.

Computational Models Used to Assess US Tobacco Control Policies.

Science.gov (United States)

Feirman, Shari P; Glasser, Allison M; Rose, Shyanika; Niaura, Ray; Abrams, David B; Teplitskaya, Lyubov; Villanti, Andrea C

2017-11-01

Simulation models can be used to evaluate existing and potential tobacco control interventions, including policies. The purpose of this systematic review was to synthesize evidence from computational models used to project population-level effects of tobacco control interventions. We provide recommendations to strengthen simulation models that evaluate tobacco control interventions. Studies were eligible for review if they employed a computational model to predict the expected effects of a non-clinical US-based tobacco control intervention. We searched five electronic databases on July 1, 2013 with no date restrictions and synthesized studies qualitatively. Six primary non-clinical intervention types were examined across the 40 studies: taxation, youth prevention, smoke-free policies, mass media campaigns, marketing/advertising restrictions, and product regulation. Simulation models demonstrated the independent and combined effects of these interventions on decreasing projected future smoking prevalence. Taxation effects were the most robust, as studies examining other interventions exhibited substantial heterogeneity with regard to the outcomes and specific policies examined across models. Models should project the impact of interventions on overall tobacco use, including nicotine delivery product use, to estimate preventable health and cost-saving outcomes. Model validation, transparency, more sophisticated models, and modeling policy interactions are also needed to inform policymakers to make decisions that will minimize harm and maximize health. In this systematic review, evidence from multiple studies demonstrated the independent effect of taxation on decreasing future smoking prevalence, and models for other tobacco control interventions showed that these strategies are expected to decrease smoking, benefit population health, and are reasonable to implement from a cost perspective. Our recommendations aim to help policymakers and researchers minimize harm and

Impact assessment of land use policies: Introduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bezlepkina, I.; Brouwer, F.M.; Reidsma, P.

2014-01-01

This special issue is built around a series of impact assessments of land use policies and sustainable development in developing countries, carried out in the EU-funded project LUPIS (Sixth framework programme, Global Change and Ecosystems, Contract 36955). The project targeted at the development

Assessment of biofuels supporting policies using the BioTrans model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lensink, Sander; Londo, Marc

2010-01-01

The introduction of advanced, 2nd generation biofuels is a difficult to forecast process. Policies may impact the timing of their introduction and the future biofuels mix. The least-cost optimization model BioTrans supports policy analyses on these issues. It includes costs for all parts of the supply chain, and endogenous learning for all biofuels technologies, including cost reductions through scale. BioTrans shows that there are significant lock-in effects favouring traditional biofuels, and that the optimal biofuels mix by 2030 is path dependent. The model captures important barriers for the introduction of emerging technologies, thereby providing valuable quantitative information that can be used in analyses of biofuels supporting policies. It is shown that biodiesel from oil crops will remain a cost effective way of producing biofuels in the medium term at moderate target levels. Aiming solely at least-cost biofuel production is in conflict with a longer term portfolio approach on biofuels, and the desire to come to biofuels with the lowest greenhouse gas emissions. Lowering the targets because of environmental constraints delays the development of 2nd generation biofuels, unless additional policy measures (such as specific sub targets for these fuels) are implemented.

Universal Basic Education Policy: Impact on Enrolment and Retention

Science.gov (United States)

Iddrisu, Issah

2016-01-01

The universal basic education policy enshrined in the constitution of Ghana is aimed at making education accessible and affordable for all Ghanaian citizens. This paper sought to assess whether the universal basic education policy really have an impact on access at the basic level. The study was carried out on the premise that the universal basic…

European Union dairy policy reform: impact and challenges

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jongeneel, R.A.

2011-01-01

Recent Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms have affected dairy policy, including the milk quota system, and increased the market orientation of the sector. A modelling exercise, using the European Dairy Industry Model (EDIM), simulates an initial sharp decline in the EU milk price in response

Decoupling among CSR policies, programs, and impacts : An empirical study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Graafland, Johan; Smid, Hugo

2016-01-01

There are relatively few empirical studies on the impacts of corporate social responsibility (CSR) policies and programs. This article addresses the research gap by analyzing the incidence of, and the conditions that affect, decoupling (defined as divergence) among CSR policies, implementation of

Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

Science.gov (United States)

Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

2013-12-01

A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

Tax policy and labor market performance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

A.L. Bovenberg (Lans)

2003-01-01

textabstractIn exploring the impact of tax policy on labor-market performance, the paper first investigates how tax reform impacts labor supply and equilibrium unemployment in representative agent models. The impact of tax policy on labor market performance depends importantly on various other

Impacts of market-based climate change policy on the U.S. iron and steel industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruth, M.; Amato, A.; Davidsdottir, B.

2000-01-01

This article presents an assessment of the impacts that policy-induced increases in cost of energy or carbon may have on energy use and emission profiles of the US iron and steel industry. Time series data and engineering information are combined within a dynamic computer model to endogenously specify changes in technologies, fuel mix, and production processes. Results indicate that energy taxes shift production to electric arc furnaces and reduce total energy use more than policies that raise costs of carbon. However, both energy taxes and costs of carbon will result in a similar decrease in carbon emissions when compared to the absence of those policies

Impact of monetary policy changes on the Chinese monetary and stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Yong; Luo, Yong; Xiong, Jie; Zhao, Fei; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

2013-10-01

The impact of monetary policy changes on the monetary market and stock market in China is investigated in this study. The changes of two major monetary policies, the interest rate and required reserve ratio, are analyzed in a study period covering seven years on the interbank monetary market and Shanghai stock market. We find that the monetary market is related to the macro economy trend and we also find that the monetary change surprises both of lowering and raising bring significant impacts to the two markets and the two markets respond to the changes differently. The results suggest that the impact of fluctuations is much larger for raising policy changes than lowering changes in the monetary market on policy announcing and effective dates. This is consistent with the “sign effect”, i.e. bad news brings a greater impact than good news. By studying the event window of each policy change, we also find that the “sign effect” still exists before and after each change in the monetary market. A relatively larger fluctuation is observed before the event date, which indicates that the monetary market might have a certain ability to predict a potential monetary change, while it is kept secret by the central bank before official announcement. In the stock market, we investigate how the returns and spreads of the Shanghai stock market index respond to the monetary changes. Evidences suggest the stock market is influenced but in a different way than the monetary market. The climbing of returns after the event dates for the lowering policy agrees with the theory that lowering changes can provide a monetary supply to boost the market and drive the stock returns higher but with a delay of 2 to 3 trading days on average. While in the bear market, the lowering policy brings larger volatility to the market on average than the raising ones. These empirical findings are useful for policymakers to understand how monetary policy changes impact the monetary and stock markets

Impacts of imports, government policy and technology on future natural gas supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allison, E.

2009-01-01

This presentation discussed the impacts of imports, government policy and technology on future natural gas supply. Specifically, it discussed projections of natural gas supply and demand; the potential impact of imports on United States natural gas supply; the potential impacts of government policy on natural gas supply and demand; and the impact of technological innovations on natural gas supply such as coalbed methane and methane hydrate. Specific government policies that were examined included the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009; the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009; and the Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act of 2009. It was concluded that the United States demand for natural gas will expand and that the impact of pending clean energy legislation is unclear. In addition, each potential future resource will face constraints and new resources may come on line in the next 20 years. figs.

Tax Policy and Labor Market Performance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bovenberg, A.L.

2003-01-01

In exploring the impact of tax policy on labor-market performance, the paper first investigates how tax reform impacts labor supply and equilibrium unemployment in representative agent models.The impact of tax policy on labor market performance depends importantly on various other labor-market

Can policy ameliorate socioeconomic inequities in obesity and obesity-related behaviours? A systematic review of the impact of universal policies on adults and children.

Science.gov (United States)

Olstad, D L; Teychenne, M; Minaker, L M; Taber, D R; Raine, K D; Nykiforuk, C I J; Ball, K

2016-12-01

This systematic review examined the impact of universal policies on socioeconomic inequities in obesity, dietary and physical activity behaviours among adults and children. PRISMA-Equity guidelines were followed. Database searches spanned from 2004 to August 2015. Eligible studies assessed the impact of universal policies on anthropometric, dietary or physical activity-related outcomes in adults or children according to socioeconomic position. Thirty-six studies were included. Policies were classified as agentic, agento-structural or structural, and their impact on inequities was rated as positive, neutral, negative or mixed according to the dominant associations observed. Most policies had neutral impacts on obesity-related inequities regardless of whether they were agentic (60% neutral), agento-structural (68% neutral) or structural (67% neutral). The proportion of positive impacts was similar across policy types (10% agentic, 18% agento-structural and 11% structural), with some differences for negative impacts (30% agentic, 14% agento-structural and 22% structural). The majority of associations remained neutral when stratified by participant population, implementation level and socioeconomic position measures and by anthropometric and behavioural outcomes. Fiscal measures had consistently neutral or positive impacts on inequities. Findings suggest an important role for policy in addressing obesity in an equitable manner and strengthen the case for implementing a broad complement of policies spanning the agency-structure continuum. © 2016 World Obesity Federation.

Defining climate modeling user needs: which data are actually required to support impact analysis and adaptation policy development?

Science.gov (United States)

Swart, R. J.; Pagé, C.

2010-12-01

Until recently, the policy applications of Earth System Models in general and climate models in particular were focusing mainly on the potential future changes in the global and regional climate and attribution of observed changes to anthropogenic activities. Is climate change real? And if so, why do we have to worry about it? Following the broad acceptance of the reality of the risks by the majority of governments, particularly after the publication of IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report and the increasing number of observations of changes in ecological and socio-economic systems that are consistent with the observed climatic changes, governments, companies and other societal groups have started to evaluate their own vulnerability in more detail and to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies. After an early focus on the most vulnerable developing countries, recently, an increasing number of industrialized countries have embarked on the design of adaptation and mitigation plans, or on studies to evaluate the level of climate resilience of their development plans and projects. Which climate data are actually required to effectively support these activities? This paper reports on the efforts of the IS-ENES project, the infrastructure project of the European Network for Earth System Modeling, to address this question. How do we define user needs and can the existing gap between the climate modeling and impact research communities be bridged in support of the ENES long-term strategy? In contrast from the climate modeling community, which has a relatively long history of collaboration facilitated by a relatively uniform subject matter, commonly agreed definitions of key terminology and some level of harmonization of methods, the climate change impacts research community is very diverse and fragmented, using a wide variety of data sources, methods and tools. An additional complicating factor is that researchers working on adaptation usually closely collaborate with non

Integrated impact assessment of climate change, land use, and adaptation policies on water quality in Austria

Science.gov (United States)

Trautvetter, Helen; Schoenhart, Martin; Parajaka, Juraj; Schmid, Erwin; Zessner, Matthias

2017-04-01

Climate change is one of the major challenges of our time and adds considerable stress to the human society and environment. A change in climate will not only shift general weather patterns, but might also increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. These changes in climatic conditions will affect the quality and quantity of water resources both directly as well as indirectly through autonomous adaptation by farmers (e.g. cultivar choices, fertilization intensity or soil management). This will influence the compliance with the good ecological and chemical status according to the EU Water Framework Directive. We present results from an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to tackle those direct and indirect impacts and analyze policy options for planned adaptation in agricultural land use and sustainable management of land and water resources until 2040. The IIMF is the result of an interdisciplinary collaboration among economists, agronomists, and hydrologists. It consists of the bio-physical process model EPIC, the regional land use optimization model PASMA[grid], the quantitative precipitation/runoff TUWmodel and the surface water emission model MONERIS. Scenarios have been developed and parameterized in collaboration with stakeholders in order to facilitate multi-actor knowledge transfer. The set of climate change scenarios until 2040 includes three scenarios with equal temperature changes but varying precipitation patterns. They are combined with potential socio-economic and policy development. The latter include water protection measures on fertilization management, soil management, or crop rotation choices. We will presented the development of interfaces among the research, the definition of scenarios and major scenario results for Austria. We will focus on nutrient emissions to surface waters, which are the major link between the different models. The results, available at watershed level indicate the

The Fiscal and Macroeconomic Impacts of Reforming Energy Subsidy Policy in Malaysia

OpenAIRE

Nora Yusma Bte Mohamed Yusoff; Hussain Ali Bekhet

2017-01-01

The rationalization of a gradual subsidies reforms plan has been set out by the Malaysian government to achieve the high-income nation target. This paper attempts to analyze the impacts of energy subsidy reform policy on fiscal deficit and macroeconomics variables in Malaysia. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model is employed. Three simulations based on different groups of scenarios have been developed. Importantly, the overall results indicate that removal of fuel subsidy has signif...

Projection of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions by motor vehicles in China: Policy options and impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huo Hong; Wang, Michael; Zhang Xiliang; He Kebin; Gong Huiming; Jiang Kejun; Jin Yuefu; Shi Yaodong; Yu Xin

2012-01-01

We project the well-to-wheels (WTW) and tank-to-wheels (TTW) fossil-energy use, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the road-transport sector in China up to year 2050 and evaluate the effects of various potential policy options with the fuel economy and environmental impacts (FEEI) model ( (http://www.feeimodel.org/)). The policies evaluated include (1) vehicle fuel-consumption improvements, (2) dieselization, (3) vehicle electrification, and (4) fuel diversification, with plausible policy scenarios. Under the business-as-usual scenario, road transport in China would create 410–520 million metric tons (MMT) of oil-equivalent of TTW oil demand (three to four times the current level), 28–36 billion GJ of WTW energy demand, and 1900–2300 MMT of CO 2 -equivalent of WTW GHG emissions by 2050. The policies (in the same order as above) are projected to reduce the TTW oil demand by 35%, 10%, 29%, and 44%, and reduce WTW GHG emissions by 34%, 5%, 12%, and 13%, respectively, by 2050. This evaluation reveals that the fuel-consumption improvement policy could achieve greater benefit in reducing oil use, fossil-energy use, and GHG emissions. Implications of each policy option are discussed and the uncertainties associated with the policy scenarios are analyzed. - Highlights: ► Fuel-cycle energy use and GHG emissions of vehicles in China are projected up to 2050. ► Various policies are evaluated with the fuel economy and environmental impacts model. ► Fuel economy standards have greatest benefit in saving energy use and GHG emissions. ► Electrification is effective. Benefit of dieselization and fuel blending is limited.

The impact of new member states on EU environmental policy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Mikael Skou

1996-01-01

The fourth enlargement of the EU, with Sweden, Finland and Austria, which took effect on 1 January 1995, is by many expected to have a positive impact on the environmental policy dimension of the Union, which has been under strain since the Rio Summit in 1992.......The fourth enlargement of the EU, with Sweden, Finland and Austria, which took effect on 1 January 1995, is by many expected to have a positive impact on the environmental policy dimension of the Union, which has been under strain since the Rio Summit in 1992....

Public health impacts of city policies to reduce climate change: findings from the URGENCHE EU-China project.

Science.gov (United States)

Sabel, Clive E; Hiscock, Rosemary; Asikainen, Arja; Bi, Jun; Depledge, Mike; van den Elshout, Sef; Friedrich, Rainer; Huang, Ganlin; Hurley, Fintan; Jantunen, Matti; Karakitsios, Spyros P; Keuken, Menno; Kingham, Simon; Kontoroupis, Periklis; Kuenzli, Nino; Liu, Miaomiao; Martuzzi, Marco; Morton, Katie; Mudu, Pierpaolo; Niittynen, Marjo; Perez, Laura; Sarigiannis, Denis; Stahl-Timmins, Will; Tobollik, Myriam; Tuomisto, Jouni; Willers, Saskia

2016-03-08

Climate change is a global threat to health and wellbeing. Here we provide findings of an international research project investigating the health and wellbeing impacts of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in urban environments. Five European and two Chinese city authorities and partner academic organisations formed the project consortium. The methodology involved modelling the impact of adopted urban climate-change mitigation transport, buildings and energy policy scenarios, usually for the year 2020 and comparing them with business as usual (BAU) scenarios (where policies had not been adopted). Carbon dioxide emissions, health impacting exposures (air pollution, noise and physical activity), health (cardiovascular, respiratory, cancer and leukaemia) and wellbeing (including noise related wellbeing, overall wellbeing, economic wellbeing and inequalities) were modelled. The scenarios were developed from corresponding known levels in 2010 and pre-existing exposure response functions. Additionally there were literature reviews, three longitudinal observational studies and two cross sectional surveys. There are four key findings. Firstly introduction of electric cars may confer some small health benefits but it would be unwise for a city to invest in electric vehicles unless their power generation fuel mix generates fewer emissions than petrol and diesel. Second, adopting policies to reduce private car use may have benefits for carbon dioxide reduction and positive health impacts through reduced noise and increased physical activity. Third, the benefits of carbon dioxide reduction from increasing housing efficiency are likely to be minor and co-benefits for health and wellbeing are dependent on good air exchange. Fourthly, although heating dwellings by in-home biomass burning may reduce carbon dioxide emissions, consequences for health and wellbeing were negative with the technology in use in the cities studied. The climate-change reduction policies reduced

A modelling approach for the assessment of the effects of Common Agricultural Policy measures on farmland biodiversity in the EU27.

Science.gov (United States)

Overmars, Koen P; Helming, John; van Zeijts, Henk; Jansson, Torbjörn; Terluin, Ida

2013-09-15

In this paper we describe a methodology to model the impacts of policy measures within the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on farm production, income and prices, and on farmland biodiversity. Two stylised scenarios are used to illustrate how the method works. The effects of CAP measures, such as subsidies and regulations, are calculated and translated into changes in land use and land-use intensity. These factors are then used to model biodiversity with a species-based indicator on a 1 km scale in the EU27. The Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact Modelling System (CAPRI) is used to conduct the economic analysis and Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) is used to model land use changes. An indicator that expresses the relative species richness was used as the indicator for biodiversity in agricultural areas. The methodology is illustrated with a baseline scenario and two scenarios that include a specific policy. The strength of the methodology is that impacts of economic policy instruments can be linked to changes in agricultural production, prices and incomes, on the one hand, and to biodiversity effects, on the other - with land use and land-use intensity as the connecting drivers. The method provides an overall assessment, but for detailed impact assessment at landscape, farm or field level, additional analysis would be required. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applying air pollution modelling within a multi-criteria decision analysis framework to evaluate UK air quality policies

Science.gov (United States)

Chalabi, Zaid; Milojevic, Ai; Doherty, Ruth M.; Stevenson, David S.; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Milner, James; Vieno, Massimo; Williams, Martin; Wilkinson, Paul

2017-10-01

A decision support system for evaluating UK air quality policies is presented. It combines the output from a chemistry transport model, a health impact model and other impact models within a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework. As a proof-of-concept, the MCDA framework is used to evaluate and compare idealized emission reduction policies in four sectors (combustion in energy and transformation industries, non-industrial combustion plants, road transport and agriculture) and across six outcomes or criteria (mortality, health inequality, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, crop yield and air quality legal compliance). To illustrate a realistic use of the MCDA framework, the relative importance of the criteria were elicited from a number of stakeholders acting as proxy policy makers. In the prototype decision problem, we show that reducing emissions from industrial combustion (followed very closely by road transport and agriculture) is more advantageous than equivalent reductions from the other sectors when all the criteria are taken into account. Extensions of the MCDA framework to support policy makers in practice are discussed.

Impact of entrepreneurship policies on opportunity to startup

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Davari

2017-09-01

Full Text Available During the previous decades, policy makers have formulated policies for developing entrepreneurship in different countries in order to decrease unemployment and poverty toward sustainable development. Some of these policies include encouraging people to be an entrepreneur, opportunity creation, educating new skills to entrepreneurs and so on. In recent years an appropriate context has been formed for entrepreneurship development in Iran and some programs have been executed. Therefore, formulating appropriate frameworks to guide Iranian government in this way is a necessity. This paper evaluates the impact of entrepreneurship policies on opportunity to startup in Iran. The results of path analysis indicate that supportive financial and non-financial actions influence positively on opportunity to startup. In addition, education and culture also influence positively on opportunity to startup. Finally, legislation also positively influences on opportunity to startup.

Revisiting the impacts of oil price increases on monetary policy implementation in the largest oil importers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nurtac Yildirim

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to test the impacts of oil price increases on monetary policy implementation in the largest oil importers. For that purpose, we estimate structural vector error correction (SVEC models to show the impacts of oil price increases on industrial production, consumer prices and immediate interest rates which are the elements of Taylor rule for the four largest oil importers (the USA, the EU, China and Japan. Our results indicate that oil price increases transmit to output and inflation and lead to fluctuations in industrial production, consumer prices and immediate interest rates which in turn influence the monetary policy stance in the following periods. The basic conclusion of research is that the channels through which oil prices affect output, inflation and interest rates should be identified by the monetary policy authorities of the USA, the EU, China and Japan. We also emphasize the importance of the determination of the optimal monetary policy framework to eliminate the negative consequences of oil price increases.

Hybrid modeling to support energy-climate policy: Effects of feed-in tariffs to promote renewable energy in Portugal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Proença, Sara; St Aubyn, Miguel

2013-01-01

Feed-in tariffs have been the main policy instrument applied in Portugal for the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources under the EU Directives on energy and climate regulation. In this paper, we provide an empirical impact assessment of the economic and environmental effects of Portugal's FITs policy to promote RES-E generation. Impact assessment of policy instruments plays a crucial role on decision-making process. For numerical simulations, we make use of a hybrid top-down/bottom-up general equilibrium modeling approach, which represents a reliable tool to analyze the complex interactions between economic, energy, and environmental issues related to energy policies. Numerical simulations confirm the empirical evidence that the FITs policy implemented by Portugal was both an effective and a cost-efficient way to increase the generation of electricity from renewable energy sources and thus to achieve the national RES-E target of 45% in 2010. Results show relatively modest macroeconomic impacts indicating potentially low economic adjustment costs. From an environmental perspective, the deployment of renewable energy source results in significant carbon emissions reductions. - Highlights: ► We provide an impact assessment of Portugal's FITs policy to promote RES-E generation. ► For numerical simulations, we make use of a hybrid top-down/bottom-up general equilibrium model. ► Portugal's FITs policy proved to be a cost-efficient way to increase generation of renewable electricity. ► Results show relatively modest macroeconomic effects indicating potentially low economic adjustment costs. ► The deployment of renewable energy sources results in significant carbon emission reductions

Financial impacts of UK's energy and climate change policies on commercial and industrial businesses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ang, Chye Peng; Toper, Bruce; Gambhir, Ajay

2016-01-01

This study provides a detailed case study assessment of two business sites in the UK, to understand the policy drivers of increases to their energy costs and energy bills, considering all current UK energy and climate change policies. We compare our findings to more generalised, theoretical calculations of the policy cost impact on energy costs and bills – we have found no other studies as comprehensive as ours in terms of policy coverage. We find that for one site the government has over-estimated the likely energy savings due to energy efficiency options. Such differences in estimates should be taken into account when considering the efficacy of climate change policies on future energy savings. The overall impact of energy and climate change policies on costs will be of the order 0.4% of total business costs by 2020. This provides an important metric for the near-term cost of mitigation to meet longer-term climate change goals. - Highlights: •Cumulative impacts of policies on energy prices and bills were studied. •Projected bills for one site are higher than those projected by the UK government. •Results of existing theoretical studies may not be fully representative. •Impact of policies is not considered significant with respect to competitiveness.

Six challenges in modelling for public health policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Metcalf, C J E; Edmunds, W J; Lessler, J

2015-03-01

The World Health Organisation's definition of public health refers to all organized measures to prevent disease, promote health, and prolong life among the population as a whole (World Health Organization, 2014). Mathematical modelling plays an increasingly important role in helping to guide the most high impact and cost-effective means of achieving these goals. Public health programmes are usually implemented over a long period of time with broad benefits to many in the community. Clinical trials are seldom large enough to capture these effects. Observational data may be used to evaluate a programme after it is underway, but have limited value in helping to predict the future impact of a proposed policy. Furthermore, public health practitioners are often required to respond to new threats, for which there is little or no previous data on which to assess the threat. Computational and mathematical models can help to assess potential threats and impacts early in the process, and later aid in interpreting data from complex and multifactorial systems. As such, these models can be critical tools in guiding public health action. However, there are a number of challenges in achieving a successful interface between modelling and public health. Here, we discuss some of these challenges. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Preferential treatment and exemption policy impacts energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doelle, R.R.

1991-01-01

This paper reports on the preferential treatment and exemption policy of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) for State and State Agencies which creates an anticompetitive and restraint of trade attitude in California against the development of alternative energy resources by the private sector when such development competes directly with state owned power generation under the State Water and Central Valley Water Projects, particularly in the area of water and power supply. The existing state water policy fails to address the effects of global warming and the adverse potential of the greenhouse effect in California, i.e. rising tides can seriously impact sea water intrusion problems of the San Francisco Bay-Delta Area by not only flooding agricultural lands in the Delta and Central Valley, but impacting the supply of water to large population areas in Southern and Northern California, especially when coupled with drought conditions. The California investigative research results herein reported demonstrates the fallacy of a preferential treatment and exemption policy in a free market economy, especially when such policy creates the potential for excessive state budget burdens upon the public in the face of questionable subsidies to special interest, i.e., allowing the resulting windfall profits to be passed onto major utilities and commingled at the expense of public interest so as to undermine the financial means for development of alternative energy resources. The cited Congressional and State Legislative Laws which provide the ways and means to resolve any energy or water resource problems are only as good as the enforcement and the commitment by the executive branch of government and the lawmakers to up-hold existing laws

Mexico SimSmoke: how changes in tobacco control policies would impact smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths in Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Fleischer, Nancy L; Thrasher, James F; Reynales-Shigematsu, Luz Myriam; Cummings, K Michael; Meza, Rafael; Zhang, Yian; Levy, David T

2017-07-01

We examined the effect of tobacco control policies in Mexico on smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths using the Mexico SimSmoke model. The model is based on the previously developed SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy, and uses population size, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data for Mexico. It assesses, individually, and in combination, the effect of six tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths. Policies included: cigarette excise taxes, smoke-free laws, anti-smoking public education campaigns, marketing restrictions, access to tobacco cessation treatments and enforcement against tobacco sales youth. The model estimates that, if Mexico were to adopt strong tobacco control policies compared to current policy levels, smoking prevalence could be reduced by 30% in the next decade and by 50% by 2053; an additional 470,000 smoking-related premature deaths could be averted over the next 40 years. The greatest impact on smoking and smoking-related deaths would be achieved by raising excise taxes on cigarettes from 55% to at least 70% of the retail price, followed by strong youth access enforcement and access to cessation treatments. Implementing tobacco control policies in Mexico could reduce smoking prevalence by 50%, and prevent 470,000 smoking-related deaths by 2053.

Energy impact of indoor environmental policy for air-conditioned offices of Hong Kong

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wong, L.T.; Mui, K.W.; Shi, K.L.

2008-01-01

Air-conditioned office buildings are one of the biggest energy consumers of electricity in developed cities in the subtropical climate regions. A good energy policy for the indoor environment should respond to both the needs of energy conservation and the needs for a desirable indoor healthy environment with a reduction in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) generation. This study evaluates energy implications and the corresponding CO 2 generation of some indoor environmental policies for air-conditioned office buildings in the subtropical climate. In particular, the thermal energy consumption in an air-conditioned office building was evaluated by the heat gains through the building fabric, the transport of outdoor fresh air for ventilation, and the heat generated by the occupant and equipment in the space. With the Monte-Carlo sampling technique and the parameters from the existing office building stocks of Hong Kong, the energy consumption profiles of air-conditioned office buildings in Hong Kong were evaluated. Energy consumption profiles were simulated for certain indoor environmental quality (IEQ) policies on indoor air temperature and CO 2 concentration settings in the offices, with other building parameters remaining unchanged. The impact assessment and the regression models described in this study may be useful for evaluation of energy performances of IEQ policies. They will also be useful for the promotion of energy-saving measures in air-conditioned office buildings in Hong Kong. This study presented a useful source of references for policymakers, building professionals and end users to quantify the energy and environmental impacts due to an IEQ policy for air-conditioned office buildings

Interaction of the EU ETS and national climate policy instruments – Impact on biomass use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kautto, N.; Arasto, A.; Sijm, J.; Peck, P.

2012-01-01

Policy-makers apply multiple policy instruments simultaneously in the climate and energy policy field at both EU and Member State levels. This creates interactions between instruments that can be complementary and synergistic but also conflicting. This article focuses on the interactions of climate policy instruments and their impact on biomass use. The objectives are to examine interactions of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) with the main national climate policy instruments and to identify the influence of these on biomass use. The work draws experiences from seven EU countries (Austria, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom), with a special focus on Finland and Sweden. The analysis explores the effects of policy interactions and is based on an examination of literature, and interviews with biomass experts in research, industry and policy spheres. Results indicate that the combined effects of climate policy instruments have a tangible impact on biomass use, whereas the causal links to the EU ETS are difficult to assess separately. Policy impacts found include increased competition for biomass resources, changes in fuel mixes and a contribution to upward pressure on wood prices. Differences in these effects are linked to differing national policy mixes and energy-carrier portfolios – an example being the relative differences in the importance of peat to the energy mix in Finland and Sweden. Analysis and comparison of the effects in the selected countries can yield insight on how to improve the design of policy interventions that impact biomass use. This study confirms the importance of identifying interactions between policy instruments so as to recognise – and manage – synergies and conflicts. The development of more synergistic and coordinated policy instrument mixes would also be beneficial for the bioenergy field. -- Highlights: ► Combined effects of climate policy instruments have a tangible impact on biomass

Final environmental impact statement: US Spent Fuel Policy. Executive summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1980-05-01

The analysis of the environmental impacts for storage of domestic fuel shows that the impacts for the full range of alternatives considered are relatively small compared with available resources or background exposure of the population from natural radiation sources. The differences in impacts of storage of domestic fuel are attributed to the amount of fuel stored in Independent Spent Fuel Storage (ISFS) facilities, the storage time, and, to a lesser degree, the differences in spent fuel transportation. The differences between comparable alternatives of implementing the policy or not implementing the policy are small. The difference in impacts of storage of foreign fuel are attributed to the amount of fuel received under the policy and to the disposition mode analyzed. The impact of storage of foreign fuel (a small fraction of the amount of domestic fuel considered) is also small. As a result of the small differences in environmental impacts of all cases considered for foreign fuel, environmental impacts probably will not strongly influence the selection of the case that best meets US nonproliferation goals. Proliferation benefits of the various cases analyzed vary significantly. The structure and level of fee charged for storage of spent fuel will affect the degree of participation in the spent fuel storage program by utilities. However, the range of participation is within the range of alternatives analyzed in the draft EISs on storage of US and foreign fuels, for which the environmental effects were found to be relatively small. The fee computed on the basis of full recovery of government costs should not significantly affect the cost of generating nuclear power

Improving Safe Sleep Modeling in the Hospital through Policy Implementation.

Science.gov (United States)

Heitmann, Rachel; Nilles, Ester K; Jeans, Ashley; Moreland, Jackie; Clarke, Chris; McDonald, Morgan F; Warren, Michael D

2017-11-01

Introduction Sleep-related infant deaths are major contributors to Tennessee's high infant mortality rate. The purpose of this initiative was to evaluate the impact of policy-based efforts to improve modeling of safe sleep practices by health care providers in hospital settings across Tennessee. Methods Safe sleep policies were developed and implemented at 71 hospitals in Tennessee. Policies, at minimum, were required to address staff training on the American Academy of Pediatrics' safe sleep recommendations, correct modeling of infant safe sleep practices, and parent education. Hospital data on process measures related to training and results of crib audits were compiled for analysis. Results The overall observance of infants who were found with any risk factors for unsafe sleep decreased 45.6% (p ≤ 0.001) from the first crib audit to the last crib audit. Significant decreases were noted for specific risk factors, including infants found asleep not on their back, with a toy or object in the crib, and not sleeping in a crib. Significant improvements were observed at hospitals where printed materials or video were utilized for training staff compared to face-to-face training. Discussion Statewide implementation of the hospital policy intervention resulted in significant reductions in infants found in unsafe sleep situations. The most common risk factors for sleep-related infant deaths can be modeled in hospitals. This effort has the potential to reduce sleep-related infant deaths and ultimately infant mortality.

Employing a CGE model in analysing the environmental and economy-wide impacts of CO2 emission abatement policies in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Yahoo, Masoud; Othman, Jamal

2017-04-15

The impact of global warming has received much international attention in recent decades. To meet climate-change mitigation targets, environmental policy instruments have been designed to transform the way goods and services are produced as well as alter consumption patterns. The government of Malaysia is strongly committed to reducing CO 2 gas emissions as a proportion of GDP by 40% from 2005 levels by the year 2020. This study evaluates the economy-wide impacts of implementing two different types of CO 2 emission abatement policies in Malaysia using market-based (imposing a carbon tax) and command-and-control mechanism (sectoral emission standards). The policy simulations conducted involve the removal of the subsidy on petroleum products by the government. A carbon emission tax in conjunction with the revenue neutrality assumption is seen to be more effective than a command-and-control policy as it provides a double dividend. This is apparent as changes in consumption patterns lead to welfare enhancements while contributing to reductions in CO 2 emissions. The simulation results show that the production of renewable energies is stepped up when the imposition of carbon tax and removal of the subsidy is augmented by revenue recycling. This study provides an economy-wide assessment that compares two important tools for assisting environment policy makers evaluate carbon emission abatement initiatives in Malaysia. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulation modelling as a tool for knowledge mobilisation in health policy settings: a case study protocol.

Science.gov (United States)

Freebairn, L; Atkinson, J; Kelly, P; McDonnell, G; Rychetnik, L

2016-09-21

Evidence-informed decision-making is essential to ensure that health programs and services are effective and offer value for money; however, barriers to the use of evidence persist. Emerging systems science approaches and advances in technology are providing new methods and tools to facilitate evidence-based decision-making. Simulation modelling offers a unique tool for synthesising and leveraging existing evidence, data and expert local knowledge to examine, in a robust, low risk and low cost way, the likely impact of alternative policy and service provision scenarios. This case study will evaluate participatory simulation modelling to inform the prevention and management of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). The risks associated with GDM are well recognised; however, debate remains regarding diagnostic thresholds and whether screening and treatment to reduce maternal glucose levels reduce the associated risks. A diagnosis of GDM may provide a leverage point for multidisciplinary lifestyle modification interventions. This research will apply and evaluate a simulation modelling approach to understand the complex interrelation of factors that drive GDM rates, test options for screening and interventions, and optimise the use of evidence to inform policy and program decision-making. The study design will use mixed methods to achieve the objectives. Policy, clinical practice and research experts will work collaboratively to develop, test and validate a simulation model of GDM in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The model will be applied to support evidence-informed policy dialogues with diverse stakeholders for the management of GDM in the ACT. Qualitative methods will be used to evaluate simulation modelling as an evidence synthesis tool to support evidence-based decision-making. Interviews and analysis of workshop recordings will focus on the participants' engagement in the modelling process; perceived value of the participatory process, perceived

Economic impact of integrated policies to respond to threats of global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanson, D.A.

1994-01-01

This paper describes the Argonne Multisector Industry Growth Assessment Model (AMIGA), which is a tool for policy impact analysis in the context of the economy as a whole and its individual sectors. AMIGA is currently being used by the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to help understand and evaluate these DOE programs, including more efficient motor vehicle programs. The steps being taken under the US Climate Change Action Plan are being assessed using AMIGA. However, because AMIGA represents prices of goods and services and the wages of workers, AMIGA has the capability to represent incentive approaches to greenhouse gas emissions reductions such as a carbon tax. The ''best'' policy option in a ''second-best'' world may be a mix, or bundle of incentives, voluntary programs, and command-and-control regulations. Detailed reports on model documentation and simulation studies will be available from the author

The economic impact of emission peaking control policies and China's sustainable development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi Wang

2014-12-01

Full Text Available To achieve the goals of national sustainable development, the peaking control of CO2 emissions is pivotal, as well as other pollutants. In this paper, we build a Chinese inter-regional CGE model and simulate 13 policies and their combinations. By analyzing the energy consumptions, coal consumptions, relating emissions and their impacts on GDP, we found that with the structure adjustment policy, the proportion of coal in primary fossil fuels in 2030 will decrease from 53% to 48% and CO2 emissions will decrease by 11.3%–22.8% compared to the baseline scenario. With the energy intensity reduction policy, CO2 emissions will decrease by 33.3% in 2030 and 47.8% in 2050 than baseline scenario. Other pollutants will also be controlled as synergetic effects. In this study we also find that although the earlier the peaking time the better for emission amounts control, the economic costs can not be ignored. The GDP will decrease by 2.96%–8.23% under different scenarios. Therefore, integrated policy solutions are needed for realizing the peaks package and more targeted measures are required to achieve the peaks of other pollutants earlier.

Assessing the impact of policy interventions on the adoption of plug-in electric vehicles: An agent-based model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silvia, Chris; Krause, Rachel M.

2016-01-01

Heightened concern regarding climate change and energy independence has increased interest in plug-in electric vehicles as one means to address these challenges and governments at all levels have considered policy interventions to encourage their adoption. This paper develops an agent-based model that simulates the introduction of four policy scenarios aimed at promoting electric vehicle adoption in an urban community and compares them against a baseline. These scenarios include reducing vehicle purchase price via subsidies, expanding the local public charging network, increasing the number and visibility of fully battery electric vehicles (BEVs) on the roadway through government fleet purchases, and a hybrid mix of these three approaches. The results point to the effectiveness of policy options that increased awareness of BEV technology. Specifically, the hybrid policy alternative was the most successful in encouraging BEV adoption. This policy increases the visibility and familiarity of BEV technology in the community and may help counter the idea that BEVs are not a viable alternative to gasoline-powered vehicles. - Highlights: •Various policy interventions to encourage electric vehicle adoption are examined. •An agent based model is used to simulate individual adoption decisions. •Policies that increase the familiarity of electric vehicles are most effective.

On the Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Oil Prices: An Asymmetry Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Previous research has assessed the impact of policy uncertainty on a few macro variables. In this paper, we consider its impact on oil prices. Oil prices are usually determined in global markets by the law of demand and supply. Our concern in this paper is to determine which country’s policy uncertainty measure has an impact on oil prices. Using both the linear and the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL methods, we find that while policy uncertainty measures of Canada, China, Europe, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the U.S. have short-run effects, short-run effects last into the long-run asymmetric effects only in the case of China. This may reflect the importance and recent surge in China’s engagement in world trade.

How do we define the policy impact of public health research? A systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Alla, Kristel; Hall, Wayne D; Whiteford, Harvey A; Head, Brian W; Meurk, Carla S

2017-10-02

In order to understand and measure the policy impact of research we need a definition of research impact that is suited to the task. This article systematically reviewed both peer-reviewed and grey literature for definitions of research impact to develop a definition of research impact that can be used to investigate how public health research influences policy. Keyword searches of the electronic databases Web of Science, ProQuest, PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, Informit, PsycINFO, The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and Google Scholar were conducted between August 2015 and April 2016. Keywords included 'definition' and 'policy' and 'research impact' or 'research evidence'. The search terms 'health', public health' or 'mental health' and 'knowledge transfer' or 'research translation' were used to focus the search on relevant health discipline approaches. Studies included in the review described processes, theories or frameworks associated with public health, health services or mental health policy. We identified 108 definitions in 83 publications. The key findings were that literature on research impact is growing, but only 23% of peer-reviewed publications on the topic explicitly defined the term and that the majority (76%) of definitions were derived from research organisations and funding institutions. We identified four main types of definition, namely (1) definitions that conceptualise research impacts in terms of positive changes or effects that evidence can bring about when transferred into policies (example Research Excellence Framework definition), (2) definitions that interpret research impacts as measurable outcomes (Research Councils UK), and (3) bibliometric and (4) use-based definitions. We identified four constructs underpinning these definitions that related to concepts of contribution, change, avenues and levels of impact. The dominance of bureaucratic definitions, the tendency to discuss but not define the concept of research impact, and the

Economic impacts of EU climate policy until 2020; EU:n ilmastopolitiikan talousvaikutukset vuoteen 2020

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rantala, O. E-mail: olavi.rantala@etla.fi

2012-07-01

The study evaluates the impacts of EU climate policy on the emission allowance price, electricity prices, the competitiveness of industry and macroeconomic developments in the third EU emission trading period 2013-2020. The economic impacts of climate policy on Finland are compared to the impacts on the entire EU area. It turns out that due to its cold climate and heating energy demand, higher export intensity of the economy and higher energy intensity of the industry Finland pays a higher price for EU climate policy in terms of output and employment losses than the EU on average. The study examines the macroeconomic effects of climate policy also in the more distant future, assuming that climate policy is tightened further in the 2020s. Climate policy implemented by emission trading means that the long-term economic growth in the EU area depends essentially on emission-free electricity production, and no longer on other growth factors, such as the labour supply and productivity growth. (orig.)

Evolutions in food marketing, quantifying the impact, and policy implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Cairns, Georgina

2013-03-01

A case study on interactive digital marketing examined the adequacy of extant policy controls and their underpinning paradigms to constrain the effects of this rapidly emerging practice. Findings were interactive digital marketing is expanding the strategies available to promote products, brands and consumer behaviours. It facilitates relational marketing; the collection of personal data for marketing; integration of the marketing mix, and provides a platform for consumers to engage in the co-creation of marketing communications. The paradigmatic logic of current policies to constrain youth-oriented food marketing does not address the interactive nature of digital marketing. The evidence base on the effects of HFSS marketing and policy interventions is based on conceptualizations of marketing as a force promoting transactions rather than interactions. Digital technologies are generating rich consumer data. Interactive digital technologies increase the complexity of the task of quantifying the impact of marketing. The rapidity of its uptake also increases urgency of need to identify appropriate effects measures. Independent analysis of commercial consumer data (appropriately transformed to protect commercial confidentiality and personal privacy) would provide evidence sources for policy on the impacts of commercial food and beverage marketing and policy controls. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Energy Efficiency Policies with Energy-Economy Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mundaca, Luis; Neij, Lena; Worrell, Ernst; McNeil, Michael A.

2010-08-01

The growing complexities of energy systems, environmental problems and technology markets are driving and testing most energy-economy models to their limits. To further advance bottom-up models from a multidisciplinary energy efficiency policy evaluation perspective, we review and critically analyse bottom-up energy-economy models and corresponding evaluation studies on energy efficiency policies to induce technological change. We use the household sector as a case study. Our analysis focuses on decision frameworks for technology choice, type of evaluation being carried out, treatment of market and behavioural failures, evaluated policy instruments, and key determinants used to mimic policy instruments. Although the review confirms criticism related to energy-economy models (e.g. unrealistic representation of decision-making by consumers when choosing technologies), they provide valuable guidance for policy evaluation related to energy efficiency. Different areas to further advance models remain open, particularly related to modelling issues, techno-economic and environmental aspects, behavioural determinants, and policy considerations.

An economic evaluation of salt reduction policies to reduce coronary heart disease in England: a policy modeling study.

Science.gov (United States)

Collins, Marissa; Mason, Helen; O'Flaherty, Martin; Guzman-Castillo, Maria; Critchley, Julia; Capewell, Simon

2014-07-01

Dietary salt intake has been causally linked to high blood pressure and increased risk of cardiovascular events. Cardiovascular disease causes approximately 35% of total UK deaths, at an estimated annual cost of £30 billion. The World Health Organization and the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence have recommended a reduction in the intake of salt in people's diets. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of four population health policies to reduce dietary salt intake on an English population to prevent coronary heart disease (CHD). The validated IMPACT CHD model was used to quantify and compare four policies: 1) Change4Life health promotion campaign, 2) front-of-pack traffic light labeling to display salt content, 3) Food Standards Agency working with the food industry to reduce salt (voluntary), and 4) mandatory reformulation to reduce salt in processed foods. The effectiveness of these policies in reducing salt intake, and hence blood pressure, was determined by systematic literature review. The model calculated the reduction in mortality associated with each policy, quantified as life-years gained over 10 years. Policy costs were calculated using evidence from published sources. Health care costs for specific CHD patient groups were estimated. Costs were compared against a "do nothing" baseline. All policies resulted in a life-year gain over the baseline. Change4life and labeling each gained approximately 1960 life-years, voluntary reformulation 14,560 life-years, and mandatory reformulation 19,320 life-years. Each policy appeared cost saving, with mandatory reformulation offering the largest cost saving, more than £660 million. All policies to reduce dietary salt intake could gain life-years and reduce health care expenditure on coronary heart disease. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

National Environmental Policy Act guidance: A model process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Angle, B.M.; Lockhart, V.A.T.; Sema, B.; Tuott, L.C.; Irving, J.S.

1995-04-01

The ''Model National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Process'' includes: References to regulations, guidance documents, and plans; training programs; procedures; and computer databases. Legislative Acts and reference documents from Congress, US Department of Energy, and Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company provide the bases for conducting NEPA at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) NEPA / Permitting Department, the Contractor Environmental Organization (CEO) is responsible for developing and maintaining LITCO NEPA and permitting policies, guidance, and procedures. The CEO develops procedures to conduct environmental evaluations based on NEPA, Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) regulations, and DOE guidance. This procedure includes preparation or support of environmental checklists, categorical exclusion determinations, environmental assessment determinations, environmental assessments, and environmental impact statements. In addition, the CEO uses this information to train personnel conducting environmental evaluations at the INEL. Streamlining these procedures fosters efficient use of resources, quality documents, and better decisions on proposed actions

Equity impact of interventions and policies to reduce smoking in youth: systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Tamara; Platt, Stephen; Amos, Amanda

2014-11-01

A systematic review to assess the equity impact of interventions/policies on youth smoking. Biosis, Cinahl, Cochrane Library, Conference Proceedings Citation Index, Embase, Eric, Medline, Psycinfo, Science Citation Index Expanded, Social Sciences Citation Index and tobacco control experts. Published January 1995 to October 2013. Primary studies of interventions/policies reporting smoking-related outcomes in youth (11-25 years) of lower compared to higher socioeconomic status (SES). References were screened and independently checked. Studies were quality assessed; characteristics and outcomes were extracted. A narrative synthesis by intervention/policy type. Equity impact was assessed as: positive (reduced inequity), neutral (no difference by SES), negative (increased inequity), mixed (equity impact varied) or unclear.Thirty-eight studies of 40 interventions/policies were included: smokefree (12); price/tax (7); mass media campaigns (1); advertising controls (4); access controls (5); school-based programmes (5); multiple policies (3), individual-level cessation support (2), individual-level support for smokefree homes (1). The distribution of equity effects was: 7 positive, 16 neutral, 12 negative, 4 mixed, 1 unclear. All 7 positive equity studies were US-based: price/tax (4), age-of-sales laws (2) and text-messaging cessation support (1). A British school-based intervention (A Stop Smoking in Schools Trial (ASSIST)) showed mixed equity effects (neutral and positive). Most neutral equity studies benefited all SES groups. Very few studies have assessed the equity impact of tobacco control interventions/policies on young people. Price/tax increases had the most consistent positive equity impact. There is a need to strengthen the evidence base for the equity impact of youth tobacco control interventions. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Intelligent simulation of aquatic environment economic policy coupled ABM and SD models.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Huihui; Zhang, Jiarui; Zeng, Weihua

2018-03-15

Rapid urbanization and population growth have resulted in serious water shortage and pollution of the aquatic environment, which are important reasons for the complex increase in environmental deterioration in the region. This study examines the environmental consequences and economic impacts of water resource shortages under variant economic policies; however, this requires complex models that jointly consider variant agents and sectors within a systems perspective. Thus, we propose a complex system model that couples multi-agent based models (ABM) and system dynamics (SD) models to simulate the impact of alternative economic policies on water use and pricing. Moreover, this model took the constraint of the local water resources carrying capacity into consideration. Results show that to achieve the 13th Five Year Plan targets in Dianchi, water prices for local residents and industries should rise to 3.23 and 4.99 CNY/m 3 , respectively. The corresponding sewage treatment fees for residents and industries should rise to 1.50 and 2.25 CNY/m 3 , respectively, assuming comprehensive adjustment of industrial structure and policy. At the same time, the local government should exercise fine-scale economic policy combined with emission fees assessed for those exceeding a standard, and collect fines imposed as punishment for enterprises that exceed emission standards. When fines reach 500,000 CNY, the total number of enterprises that exceed emission standards in the basin can be controlled within 1%. Moreover, it is suggested that the volume of water diversion in Dianchi should be appropriately reduced to 3.06×10 8 m 3 . The reduced expense of water diversion should provide funds to use for the construction of recycled water facilities. Then the local rise in the rate of use of recycled water should reach 33%, and 1.4 CNY/m 3 for the price of recycled water could be provided to ensure the sustainable utilization of local water resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B

Strategic environmental assessment policy integration model for solid waste management in Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Victor, Dennis; Agamuthu, P.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • We identified policy drivers of SEA in solid waste policy planning. • The SEA primary policy drivers are benefits, barriers and enablers need. • The SEA sub-drivers are environmental attitude and environmental awareness. • Optimal SEA policy integration requires public participation and capacity building. • SEA integration should be a long-term sustainable policy strategy for SWM. -- Abstract: This paper examines the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) systemic policy drivers for solid waste management (SWM) policies, plans and programmes (PPP) in Malaysia. Solid waste generation in Malaysia has been increasing drastically from 9.0 million tonnes in 2000 to an expected 15.6 million tonnes in 2020. This projected rate of solid waste generation is expected to burden the country's environmental and water quality resources. The key problem the study frames is the lack of environmental integration in the SWM process which is only conducted during the environmental impact assessments (EIA) stage of SWM facilities. The purpose of this study is to expand the SEA subject knowledge by validating a behaviour based theoretical framework and identifying key policy drivers that influence the integration of SEA in SWM policy planning. The study methodology utilized a confirmatory covariance based structural equation modelling approach to validate the proposed theoretical model based on the policy makers/implementers interview questionnaire data collection. The study findings indicate five latent SEA policy drivers which were named policy knowledge, environmental attitude, perceived benefits, perceived barriers and perceived enablers. The study has conceptualized and tested a SEA policy model which indicates that SEA integration behaviour is influenced directly by three main drivers (perception of benefits, perception of barriers and perception of enablers) and influenced indirectly by two sub-drivers environmental attitude and environmental knowledge

Environmental impact assessment and end-of-life treatment policy analysis for Li-ion batteries and Ni-MH batteries.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Yajuan; Chen, Bo; Huang, Kai; Wang, Xiang; Wang, Dong

2014-03-18

Based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Eco-indicator 99 method, a LCA model was applied to conduct environmental impact and end-of-life treatment policy analysis for secondary batteries. This model evaluated the cycle, recycle and waste treatment stages of secondary batteries. Nickel-Metal Hydride (Ni-MH) batteries and Lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries were chosen as the typical secondary batteries in this study. Through this research, the following results were found: (1) A basic number of cycles should be defined. A minimum cycle number of 200 would result in an obvious decline of environmental loads for both battery types. Batteries with high energy density and long life expectancy have small environmental loads. Products and technology that help increase energy density and life expectancy should be encouraged. (2) Secondary batteries should be sorted out from municipal garbage. Meanwhile, different types of discarded batteries should be treated separately under policies and regulations. (3) The incineration rate has obvious impact on the Eco-indicator points of Nickel-Metal Hydride (Ni-MH) batteries. The influence of recycle rate on Lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries is more obvious. These findings indicate that recycling is the most promising direction for reducing secondary batteries' environmental loads. The model proposed here can be used to evaluate environmental loads of other secondary batteries and it can be useful for proposing policies and countermeasures to reduce the environmental impact of secondary batteries.

Environmental Impact Assessment and End-of-Life Treatment Policy Analysis for Li-Ion Batteries and Ni-MH Batteries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yajuan Yu

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA and Eco-indicator 99 method, a LCA model was applied to conduct environmental impact and end-of-life treatment policy analysis for secondary batteries. This model evaluated the cycle, recycle and waste treatment stages of secondary batteries. Nickel-Metal Hydride (Ni-MH batteries and Lithium ion (Li-ion batteries were chosen as the typical secondary batteries in this study. Through this research, the following results were found: (1 A basic number of cycles should be defined. A minimum cycle number of 200 would result in an obvious decline of environmental loads for both battery types. Batteries with high energy density and long life expectancy have small environmental loads. Products and technology that help increase energy density and life expectancy should be encouraged. (2 Secondary batteries should be sorted out from municipal garbage. Meanwhile, different types of discarded batteries should be treated separately under policies and regulations. (3 The incineration rate has obvious impact on the Eco-indicator points of Nickel-Metal Hydride (Ni-MH batteries. The influence of recycle rate on Lithium ion (Li-ion batteries is more obvious. These findings indicate that recycling is the most promising direction for reducing secondary batteries’ environmental loads. The model proposed here can be used to evaluate environmental loads of other secondary batteries and it can be useful for proposing policies and countermeasures to reduce the environmental impact of secondary batteries.

Environmental Impact Assessment and End-of-Life Treatment Policy Analysis for Li-Ion Batteries and Ni-MH Batteries

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Yajuan; Chen, Bo; Huang, Kai; Wang, Xiang; Wang, Dong

2014-01-01

Based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Eco-indicator 99 method, a LCA model was applied to conduct environmental impact and end-of-life treatment policy analysis for secondary batteries. This model evaluated the cycle, recycle and waste treatment stages of secondary batteries. Nickel-Metal Hydride (Ni-MH) batteries and Lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries were chosen as the typical secondary batteries in this study. Through this research, the following results were found: (1) A basic number of cycles should be defined. A minimum cycle number of 200 would result in an obvious decline of environmental loads for both battery types. Batteries with high energy density and long life expectancy have small environmental loads. Products and technology that help increase energy density and life expectancy should be encouraged. (2) Secondary batteries should be sorted out from municipal garbage. Meanwhile, different types of discarded batteries should be treated separately under policies and regulations. (3) The incineration rate has obvious impact on the Eco-indicator points of Nickel-Metal Hydride (Ni-MH) batteries. The influence of recycle rate on Lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries is more obvious. These findings indicate that recycling is the most promising direction for reducing secondary batteries’ environmental loads. The model proposed here can be used to evaluate environmental loads of other secondary batteries and it can be useful for proposing policies and countermeasures to reduce the environmental impact of secondary batteries. PMID:24646862

Computable general equilibrium modelling in the context of trade and environmental policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koesler, Simon Tobias

2014-10-14

This thesis is dedicated to the evaluation of environmental policies in the context of climate change. Its objectives are twofold. Its first part is devoted to the development of potent instruments for quantitative impact analysis of environmental policy. In this context, the main contributions include the development of a new computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which makes use of the new comprehensive and coherent World Input-Output Dataset (WIOD) and which features a detailed representation of bilateral and bisectoral trade flows. Moreover it features an investigation of input substitutability to provide modellers with adequate estimates for key elasticities as well as a discussion and amelioration of the standard base year calibration procedure of most CGE models. Building on these tools, the second part applies the improved modelling framework and studies the economic implications of environmental policy. This includes an analysis of so called rebound effects, which are triggered by energy efficiency improvements and reduce their net benefit, an investigation of how firms restructure their production processes in the presence of carbon pricing mechanisms, and an analysis of a regional maritime emission trading scheme as one of the possible options to reduce emissions of international shipping in the EU context.

Computable general equilibrium modelling in the context of trade and environmental policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koesler, Simon Tobias

2014-01-01

This thesis is dedicated to the evaluation of environmental policies in the context of climate change. Its objectives are twofold. Its first part is devoted to the development of potent instruments for quantitative impact analysis of environmental policy. In this context, the main contributions include the development of a new computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which makes use of the new comprehensive and coherent World Input-Output Dataset (WIOD) and which features a detailed representation of bilateral and bisectoral trade flows. Moreover it features an investigation of input substitutability to provide modellers with adequate estimates for key elasticities as well as a discussion and amelioration of the standard base year calibration procedure of most CGE models. Building on these tools, the second part applies the improved modelling framework and studies the economic implications of environmental policy. This includes an analysis of so called rebound effects, which are triggered by energy efficiency improvements and reduce their net benefit, an investigation of how firms restructure their production processes in the presence of carbon pricing mechanisms, and an analysis of a regional maritime emission trading scheme as one of the possible options to reduce emissions of international shipping in the EU context.

Modeling urban expansion policy scenarios using an agent-based approach for Guangzhou Metropolitan Region of China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guangjin Tian

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Policy makers and the human decision processes of urban planning have an impact on urban expansion. The behaviors and decision modes of regional authority, real estate developer, resident, and farmer agents and their interactions can be simulated by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP method. The driving factors are regressed with urban dynamics instead of static land-use types. Agents' behaviors and decision modes have an impact on the urban dynamic pattern by adjusting parameter weights. We integrate an agent-based model (ABM with AHP to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Three policy scenarios for baseline development, rapid development, and green land protection have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Guangzhou metropolitan region. A future policy scenario analysis can help policy makers to understand the possible results. These individuals can adjust their policies and decisions according to their different objectives.

Strategic Sequencing for State Distributed PV Policies: A Quantitative Analysis of Policy Impacts and Interactions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Doris, E.; Krasko, V.A.

2012-10-01

State and local policymakers show increasing interest in spurring the development of customer-sited distributed generation (DG), in particular solar photovoltaic (PV) markets. Prompted by that interest, this analysis examines the use of state policy as a tool to support the development of a robust private investment market. This analysis builds on previous studies that focus on government subsidies to reduce installation costs of individual projects and provides an evaluation of the impacts of policies on stimulating private market development.

The impact of Border policy effect on cross-border ethnic areas

Science.gov (United States)

Bie, Q. L.; Zhou, S. Y.; Li, C. S.

2013-11-01

Boundary effect analysis is related to border policy making in the cross-border ethnic area. The border effect literatures show that geographic boundaries have obvious impacts on economic, social and cultural relations in both sides of a nation border. Particularly in cross-border ethnic areas, each ethnic group has strong internal spatial structure relevance, and the boundary effect is more obvious. However, most of China's border areas are cross-border ethnic areas, each of border issues is unique. Under this perspective, we analyze the border effects of various boundaries can provide basis for formulating border management policies. For small scale of cross-border ethnic minority areas, how to formulate the boundary management policy is a good question to explore. This paper is demonstrated by a study of the impact of border management policies in Dehong Dai and Jingpo Autonomous Prefecture in Yunnan Province at the border area to Burma. The comparative method is used to analysis the border management policies in past 50 decades for the border area of Yunnan Province .This research aims to define trends within border policy and its influences to national security. This paper also examines Wendy Brown's liberal theory of border management policy. We found that it is not suitable for Sino-Burma border area. The conclusion is that the changes or instability of international economic and political situation has more influence to this cross-border ethnic area, and only innovative policy will be effective in cross-border ethnic area. So the border management policies should reflect the change of international context.

Distributed Wind Policy Comparison Tool

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2011-12-01

Power through Policy: 'Best Practices' for Cost-Effective Distributed Wind is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-funded project to identify distributed wind technology policy best practices and to help policymakers, utilities, advocates, and consumers examine their effectiveness using a pro forma model. Incorporating a customized feed from the Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency (DSIRE), the Web-based Distributed Wind Policy Comparison Tool (Policy Tool) is designed to assist state, local, and utility officials in understanding the financial impacts of different policy options to help reduce the cost of distributed wind technologies. The Policy Tool can be used to evaluate the ways that a variety of federal and state policies and incentives impact the economics of distributed wind (and subsequently its expected market growth). It also allows policymakers to determine the impact of policy options, addressing market challenges identified in the U.S. DOE’s '20% Wind Energy by 2030' report and helping to meet COE targets.

The International Rare Diseases Research Consortium: Policies and Guidelines to maximize impact.

Science.gov (United States)

Lochmüller, Hanns; Torrent I Farnell, Josep; Le Cam, Yann; Jonker, Anneliene H; Lau, Lilian Pl; Baynam, Gareth; Kaufmann, Petra; Dawkins, Hugh Js; Lasko, Paul; Austin, Christopher P; Boycott, Kym M

2017-12-01

The International Rare Diseases Research Consortium (IRDiRC) has agreed on IRDiRC Policies and Guidelines, following extensive deliberations and discussions in 2012 and 2013, as a first step towards improving coordination of research efforts worldwide. The 25 funding members and 3 patient umbrella organizations (as of early 2013) of IRDiRC, a consortium of research funders that focuses on improving diagnosis and therapy for rare disease patients, agreed in Dublin, Ireland in April 2013 on the Policies and Guidelines that emphasize collaboration in rare disease research, the involvement of patients and their representatives in all relevant aspects of research, as well as the sharing of data and resources. The Policies and Guidelines provide guidance on ontologies, diagnostics, biomarkers, patient registries, biobanks, natural history, therapeutics, models, publication, intellectual property, and communication. Most IRDiRC members-currently nearly 50 strong-have since incorporated its policies in their funding calls and some have chosen to exceed the requirements laid out, for instance in relation to data sharing. The IRDiRC Policies and Guidelines are the first, detailed agreement of major public and private funding organizations worldwide to govern rare disease research, and may serve as a template for other areas of international research collaboration. While it is too early to assess their full impact on research productivity and patient benefit, the IRDiRC Policies and Guidelines have already contributed significantly to improving transparency and collaboration in rare disease research.

The Impact of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy on Investor Sentiment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lutz, Chandler

2015-01-01

This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy and investor sentiment across conventional and unconventional monetary policy regimes. During conventional times, we find that a surprise decrease in the fed funds rate leads to a large increase in investor sentiment. Similarly, when...... the fed funds rate is at its zero lower bound, research results indicate that expansionary unconventional monetary policy shocks also have a large and positive impact on investor mood. Together, our findings highlight the importance of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy...... in the determination of investor sentiment....

Impact of Fishery Policy on Fishery Manufacture Output, Economy and Welfare in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Firmansyah; Oktavilia, Shanty; Sugiyanto, F. X.; Hamzah, Ibnu N.

2018-02-01

The fisheries sector and fish manufacturing industry are the bright prospect sectors of Indonesia, due to its huge potency, which has not been worked out optimally. In facts, these sectors can generate a large amount of foreign exchange. The Government has paid significant attention to the development of these sectors. This study simulates the impact of fishery policies on the production of fish manufacturing industry, national economic and welfare in Indonesia. By employing the Input-Output Analysis approach, impacts of various government policy scenarios are developed, covering fisheries technical policy, as well as infrastructure development policies in the fisheries sector. This study indicates that the policies in the fisheries sector increase the output of fishery, the production of fish manufacturing industry, the sectoral and national outputs, as well as the level of national income.

Methodology for Participatory Policy Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Geurts, J.L.A.; Joldersma, F.

2001-01-01

In the course of time it has become clear that policy analysts who use traditional formal modeling techniques have limited impact on policy making regarding complex policy problems. These kinds of problems require the analyst to combine scientific insights with subjective knowledge resources and to

Measuring the Impact of Financial Intermediation: Linking Contract Theory to Econometric Policy Evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Townsend, Robert M; Urzua, Sergio S

2009-09-01

We study the impact that financial intermediation can have on productivity through the alleviation of credit constraints in occupation choice and/or an improved allocation of risk, using both static and dynamic structural models as well as reduced form OLS and IV regressions. Our goal in this paper is to bring these two strands of the literature together. Even though, under certain assumptions, IV regressions can recover accurately the true model-generated local average treatment effect, these are quantitatively different, in order of magnitude and even sign, from other policy impact parameters (e.g., ATE and TT). We also show that laying out clearly alternative models can guide the search for instruments. On the other hand adding more margins of decision, i.e., occupation choice and intermediation jointly, or adding more periods with promised utilities as key state variables, as in optimal multi-period contracts, can cause the misinterpretation of IV as the causal effect of interest.

Impact of Scheduling Policies on Control System Performance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schiøler, Henrik; Ravn, Anders Peter; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard

2003-01-01

It is well known that jitter has an impact on control system performance, and this is often used as an argument for static scheduling policies, e.g. a time triggered architecture. However, it is only completion jitter that seriously disturbs standard linear control algorithms in a way similar to ...

A multiple perspective modeling and simulation approach for renewable energy policy evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Alyamani, Talal M.

Environmental issues and reliance on fossil fuel sources, including coal, oil, and natural gas, are the two most common energy issues that are currently faced by the United States (U.S.). Incorporation of renewable energy sources, a non-economical option in electricity generation compared to conventional sources that burn fossil fuels, single handedly promises a viable solution for both of these issues. Several energy policies have concordantly been suggested to reduce the financial burden of adopting renewable energy technologies and make such technologies competitive with conventional sources throughout the U.S. This study presents a modeling and analysis approach for comprehensive evaluation of renewable energy policies with respect to their benefits to various related stakeholders--customers, utilities, governmental and environmental agencies--where the debilitating impacts, advantages, and disadvantages of such policies can be assessed and quantified at the state level. In this work, a novel simulation framework is presented to help policymakers promptly assess and evaluate policies from different perspectives of its stakeholders. The proposed framework is composed of four modules: 1) a database that collates the economic, operational, and environmental data; 2) elucidation of policy, which devises the policy for the simulation model; 3) a preliminary analysis, which makes predictions for consumption, supply, and prices; and 4) a simulation model. After the validity of the proposed framework is demonstrated, a series of planned Florida and Texas renewable energy policies are implemented into the presented framework as case studies. Two solar and one energy efficiency programs are selected as part of the Florida case study. A utility rebate and federal tax credit programs are selected as part of the Texas case study. The results obtained from the simulation and conclusions drawn on the assessment of current energy policies are presented with respect to the

Grain price spikes and beggar-thy-neighbor policy responses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boysen, Ole; Jensen, Hans Grinsted

on the agenda of various international policy fora, including the annual meetings of G20 countries in recent years. For that reason, recent studies have attempted to quantify the extent to which such policy actions contributed to the rise in food prices. A study by Jensen & Anderson (2014) uses the global AGE...... model GTAP and the corresponding database to quantify the global policy actions contributions to the raise in food prices by modeling the changes in distortions to agricultural incentives in the period 2006 to 2008. We link the results from this global model into a national AGE model, highlighting how...... global "Beggar-thy-Neighbor Policy Responses" impacted on poor households in Uganda. More specifically we examine the following research questions: What were the Ugandan economy-wide and poverty impacts of the price spikes? What was the impact of other countries "Beggar-thy-Neighbor Policy Responses...

Assessing the Impact of the ECB's Monetary Policy on the Stock Markets: A Sectoral View

OpenAIRE

Konstantin Kholodilin; Alberto Montagnoli; Oreste Napolitano; Boriss Siliverstovs

2008-01-01

This paper analyzes the response of the European stock markets to the monetary policy shocks by the European Central Bank using the heteroskedasticity based approach of Rigobon (2003). We find that monetary policy tightening has a heterogeneous impact on the Euro Area sectors on the day the monetary policy is publicly announced. Furthermore, we provide statistical evidence against the use of the popular event study approach when assessing the impact of monetary policy shocks on the stock mark...

The impact of donor policies in Europe: a steady increase, but not everywhere.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Coppen, R.; Friele, R.D.; Gevers, J.K.M.; Blok, G.A.; Zee, J. van der

2008-01-01

Background: Transplantable organs are scarce everywhere. Therefore, countries have developed policies to support the efficient use of potential donors. Nevertheless, the shortage of organs remains. Were these policies in vain? The aim of this study is to assess the impact of donor policies on donor

Renewable resource policy when distributional impacts matter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horan, R.D.; Shortle, J.S.; Bulte, E.H.

1999-01-01

The standard assumption in bioeconomic resource models is that optimal policies maximize the present value of economic surplus to society. This assumption implies that regulatory agencies should not be concerned with the distributional consequences of management strategies. Both contemporary welfare-theoretic and rent-seeking approaches suggests distributional issues are important in designing resource management policies. This paper explores resource management when the managing agency has preferences defined over the economic welfare of various groups with a direct economic interest in the use of resources. Policy schemes consistent with this approach are derived and compared with standard results. 42 refs

The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Poverty in Ethiopia: A Computable ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Ethiopia has implemented various fiscal policy reforms in the past decade. Most of these reforms center on indirect taxes and pro-poor expenditure patterns. This study investigates the economy-wide impacts of these fiscal policy changes on poverty. To this effect, the study used a static computable general equilibrium ...

The Impact of Monetary Policy on Bank Credit During Economic Crisis: Indonesia's Experience

OpenAIRE

Mongid, Abdul

2008-01-01

The monetary policy mechanism by which monetary policy was transmitted to thereal economy had emerged as the pivotal discussion topic recently. This paper tried to discussthe impact of Bank Indonesia’s monetary policy on loan bank. By using simple loan bankframework we concluded that monetary policies were able to influence loan bank. Themonetary variables such as discount rate policy, base money and exchange rate policy werevery important in determining the banking credit. As the credit was ...

Information Security Policy Modeling for Network Security Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dmitry Sergeevich Chernyavskiy

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Policy management for network security systems (NSSs is one of the most topical issues of network security management. Incorrect configurations of NSSs lead to system outages and appearance of vulnerabilities. Moreover, policy management process is a time-consuming task, which includes significant amount of manual work. These factors reduce efficiency of NSSs’ utilization. The paper discusses peculiarities of policy management process and existing approaches to policy modeling, presents a model aimed to formalize policies for NSSs independently on NSSs’ platforms and select the most effective NSSs for implementation of the policies.

The economic impact of state cigarette taxes and smoke-free air policies on convenience stores.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jidong; Chaloupka, Frank J

2013-03-01

To investigate whether increasing state cigarette taxes and/or enacting stronger smoke-free air (SFA) policies have negative impact on convenience store density in a state, a proxy that is determined by store openings and closings, which reflects store profits. State-level business count estimates for convenience stores for 50 states and District of Columbia from 1997 to 2009 were analysed using two-way fixed effects regression techniques that control for state-specific and year-specific determinants of convenience store density. The impact of tax and SFA policies was examined using a quasi-experimental research design that exploits changes in cigarette taxes and SFA policies within a state over time. Taxes are found to be uncorrelated with the density of combined convenience stores and gas stations in a state. Taxes are positively correlated with the density of convenience stores; however, the magnitude of this correlation is small, with a 10% increase in state cigarette taxes associated with a 0.19% (pconvenience stores per million people in a state. State-level SFA policies do not correlate with convenience store density in a state, regardless whether gas stations were included. These results are robust across different model specifications. In addition, they are robust with regard to the inclusion/exclusion of other state-level tobacco control measures and gasoline prices. Contrary to tobacco industry and related organisations' claims, higher cigarette taxes and stronger SFA policies do not negatively affect convenience stores.

Growing Stem Cells: The Impact of Federal Funding Policy on the U.S. Scientific Frontier

Science.gov (United States)

Furman, Jeffrey L.; Murray, Fiona; Stern, Scott

2012-01-01

This paper articulates a citation-based approach to science policy evaluation and employs that approach to investigate the impact of the United States' 2001 policy regarding the federal funding of human embryonic stem cell (hESC) research. We evaluate the impact of the policy on the level of U.S. hESC research, the U.S. position at the knowledge…

Modeling the impact of a carbon tax: A trial analysis for Washington State

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mori, Keibun

2012-01-01

In recent years, energy policy makers have proposed a carbon tax as an economy-wide policy tool to curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The quantification of its impact on GHG emissions has relied on an energy-economy model, whose complexity often makes it difficult to comprehend how it simulates the interaction of a carbon tax and energy demand. This study therefore aims at developing an alternative model called the Carbon Tax Analysis Model (C-TAM). The elasticity-based approach used in C-TAM is less sophisticated than an equilibrium-based approach used in an energy-economy model, but C-TAM is designed to maximize its predictive capabilities by using a wide range of elasticities for each sector and fuel use, accounting for likely changes in fuel mix for electricity generation, and addressing the model's sensitivity to elasticity estimates with Monte Carlo simulation. The trial analysis in this study evaluates a potential carbon tax in Washington State, suggesting a carbon tax at US$30 per metric ton of CO 2 (tCO 2 ) lowers GHG emissions by 8.4% from the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario in 2035. The study concludes that C-TAM can provide meaningful policy implications by forecasting detailed impact on revenues and energy demand for each sector and fuel use. - Highlights: ► An elasticity-based model is developed to forecast the impact of a carbon tax. ► This model can show detailed impacts on each sector and fuel use. ► Extensive literature review and sensitivity analyses cover the model's weakness. ► A carbon tax is effective in curbing greenhouse gas emissions in Washington State. ► A carbon tax is however more effective if implemented nationwide.

Comparison of integrated assessment models: Carbon price impacts on U.S. energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilkerson, Jordan T.; Leibowicz, Benjamin D.; Turner, Delavane D.; Weyant, John P.

2015-01-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are increasingly used to evaluate carbon policy impacts on energy structure, but different models can yield considerably different results. This paper seeks to frame model results for policymakers and other consumers of model outputs. In this analysis we compare three models: GCAM, MERGE, and EPPA. We apply diagnostic carbon price scenarios, such as ramps and shocks, to identify key differences in model behavior that drive inter-model variability in projected policy impacts on the U.S. energy system. We report model results using several economic parameterizations and find that variation in carbon emissions across models results primarily from differences in carbon intensity of energy supply. These differences arise because models include different low-carbon energy technology options and vary widely in how flexible the electricity supply sector is at adapting to a change in policy. The timing of emissions abatement is also strongly influenced by whether the model is a simulation or an inter-temporal optimization scheme and the amount of foresight exhibited in the model. Our analysis demonstrates the usefulness of novel IAM diagnostic indicators and clarifies model features that are highly relevant for consumers of model results. - Highlights: • We compare several IAMs and highlight differences between models types. • Structural difference between models leads to significantly different energy mix. • Primary driver of inter-model variability is changes in carbon intensity. • Intensity driven by technology options, constraints on adoption, and substitutability. • Policymakers need to understand model framework, inputs, and assumptions

New vehicle fuel economy in the UK: Impact of the recession and recent policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wadud, Zia

2014-01-01

Interests in vehicle fuel economy have increased in the past few years with the implementations of more stringent CAFE standard in USA and mandatory carbon emission standard in the EU. We seek to understand the effects of recent policies such as restructuring of Vehicle Excise Duties and EU standard on new vehicle fuel economy in the UK. In the past few years there have been substantial fluctuations in income and fuel prices, offering an interesting testing ground to understand their impact on the demand for fuel economy in vehicles. We use a monthly dataset to find that the emission standard is the largest driver for fuel economy improvements in recent years. Also, contrary to some recent findings in Europe and in UK, we find that income has an effect and that the recession had some role in improving the fuel economy. The effects of fuel prices were relatively small. Restructuring of the VED also improved new vehicle fuel economy in the UK, but the scrappage scheme had no significant effect. Results indicate that both supply and demand side policies are effective in improving fuel economy, although quantitatively the emission standard appears more effective due to its stringency. It is also important to consider the effects of income while devising demand side policies. - Highlights: • Econometric modelling and simulation of new vehicle fuel economy in UK. • EU carbon standard is the largest reason behind improving fuel economy. • Recession and associated reduction in income also had a role. • Fuel price has some impact on new car fuel economy, but small. • VED restructuring had an impact, but scrappage scheme's impact was insignificant

Sources of change in foreign policy. A review of foreign policy models for developing countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alba E. Gámez

2005-05-01

Full Text Available The study of what could be called the reorientation of State foreign policy is not a new phenomenon. Changes in alliances, economic partners and attitudes in the face of international issues have been reflected in myriad texts. Nevertheless, few theoretical frameworksdeal with this issue as an area of study in and of itself. Overcoming this situation would contribute to identifying and comparing the changes in attitude and discourse in the relations between countries, especially in the case of developing countries, and, by extension, thesources of these changes. This article reviews the different models for the analysis of foreign policy, using the conceptual framework of Hermann (1990 as its starting point. This framework suggests the existence of four graded levels of change which allow for studying forms of change which are subtle but important in foreign policy; it also offers a reasoned analysis for testing the relative importance of their sources. This conceptual framework can be situated in the traditional division of levels of analysis: the characteristics of the leader, bureaucratic proposer, internal adjustment, and external impact; and, while it does not provide a conclusive answer, it may be a useful tool in clarifying the ways of using empirical evidence and establishing the relative importance of the sources of change in foreign policy orientation.

National Language Policy and Its Impacts on Second Language Reading Culture

Science.gov (United States)

Azmi, Mohd Nazri Latiff

2013-01-01

This research concentrates on Malaysian language policy and its impacts on the development of English language (regarded as a second language in Malaysia) specifically on reading culture. The main objectives of this research are to investigate the weaknesses and strengths of the policy and also to come out with recommendations to improve the…

A Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model for Policy Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Barron, R. W.; Hill, M. C.

2017-12-01

Although integrated assessments of climate change policy have frequently identified nuclear energy as a promising alternative to fossil fuels, these studies have often treated nuclear waste disposal very simply. Simple assumptions about nuclear waste are problematic because they may not be adequate to capture relevant costs and uncertainties, which could result in suboptimal policy choices. Modeling nuclear waste management costs is a cross-disciplinary, multi-scale problem that involves economic, geologic and environmental processes that operate at vastly different temporal scales. Similarly, the climate-related costs and benefits of nuclear energy are dependent on environmental sensitivity to CO2 emissions and radiation, nuclear energy's ability to offset carbon emissions, and the risk of nuclear accidents, factors which are all deeply uncertain. Alternative value systems further complicate the problem by suggesting different approaches to valuing intergenerational impacts. Effective policy assessment of nuclear energy requires an integrated approach to modeling nuclear waste management that (1) bridges disciplinary and temporal gaps, (2) supports an iterative, adaptive process that responds to evolving understandings of uncertainties, and (3) supports a broad range of value systems. This work develops the Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model (NWMCM). NWMCM provides a flexible framework for evaluating the cost of nuclear waste management across a range of technology pathways and value systems. We illustrate how NWMCM can support policy analysis by estimating how different nuclear waste disposal scenarios developed using the NWMCM framework affect the results of a recent integrated assessment study of alternative energy futures and their effects on the cost of achieving carbon abatement targets. Results suggest that the optimism reflected in previous works is fragile: Plausible nuclear waste management costs and discount rates appropriate for intergenerational cost

A paradigm shift toward a consistent modeling framework to assess climate impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Monier, E.; Paltsev, S.; Sokolov, A. P.; Fant, C.; Chen, H.; Gao, X.; Schlosser, C. A.; Scott, J. R.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Ejaz, Q.; Couzo, E. A.; Prinn, R. G.; Haigh, M.

2017-12-01

Estimates of physical and economic impacts of future climate change are subject to substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches of assessing climate impacts by evaluating a damage function or by multi-model comparisons based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we focus here on integrating impacts into a self-consistent coupled human and Earth system modeling framework that includes modules that represent multiple physical impacts. In a sample application we show that this framework is capable of investigating the physical impacts of climate change and socio-economic stressors. The projected climate impacts vary dramatically across the globe in a set of scenarios with global mean warming ranging between 2.4°C and 3.6°C above pre-industrial by 2100. Unabated emissions lead to substantial sea level rise, acidification that impacts the base of the oceanic food chain, air pollution that exceeds health standards by tenfold, water stress that impacts an additional 1 to 2 billion people globally and agricultural productivity that decreases substantially in many parts of the world. We compare the outcomes from these forward-looking scenarios against the common goal described by the target-driven scenario of 2°C, which results in much smaller impacts. It is challenging for large internationally coordinated exercises to respond quickly to new policy targets. We propose that a paradigm shift toward a self-consistent modeling framework to assess climate impacts is needed to produce information relevant to evolving global climate policy and mitigation strategies in a timely way.

IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION ON MACROECONOMIC POLICY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clementina IVAN-UNGUREANU

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Globalization – the growing integration of economies and societies around the world – has been one of the most hotly-debated topics in international economics over the past few years. Rapid growth and poverty reduction in some countries that were poor 20 years ago have been positive aspects of globalization. But globalization has also generated significant international opposition to concerns about increased inequality and environmental degradation. There are many definitions of globalization. One of them could be: globalization is an ecosystem in which economic potential is no longer defined or contained by political and geographic boundaries. Economic activity has no bounds in a globalized economy. A globalized world is one where goods, services, financial capital, machinery, money, workers and ideas migrate to wherever they are most valued and can work together most efficiently, flexibly and securely. Where does economic policy come into play in this world? This paper presents some aspects of globalization and the impact on the new strategy of macroeconomics policy.

The Impact of the FOMC's Monetary Policy Actions on the growth of Credit Risk: the Monetary Policy - Liquidity Paradox

OpenAIRE

Kwamie Dunbar

2008-01-01

Credit risk is influenced by interest rates and market liquidity. This paper examines the direct and indirect impacts of unexpected monetary policy shifts on the growth of corporate credit risk, with the aim of quantifying the size and direction of the response. The results surprisingly indicate that monetary policy and liquidity impulses move counter to each other in their effects on credit risk ("The monetary policy-liquidity paradox"). The analysis indicates that while contractionary monet...

The uneven impact of the European Employment Strategy on member states' employment policies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Simonsen, Mikkel Mailand

2008-01-01

policies to varying degrees, but that the impact, generally speaking, has been limited. In the article, the author examines the impact of the strategy as a result of peer pressure and key actors' strategic use of the strategy and shows how these mechanisms work. Factors that can explain why greater impact......In the mid-1990s, EU member states decided to coordinate their national employment policies through a common European Employment Strategy (EES). Building on a systematic comparative study of four member states, the author argues that the strategy has influenced the member states' employment...

Impact of price deregulation policy on the affordability of essential medicines for women's health: a panel data analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Junjie; Wang, Liming; Liu, Chenxi; Zhang, Xinping

2017-12-01

A new policy which required deregulation on prices of off-patent medicines for women's health during procurement was introduced in China in September 2015. The current study examines this policy's impact on the affordability of essential medicines for women's health. Based on product-level panel data, a fixed effect regression model is employed by using procurement records from Hubei Centralist Tender for Drug Purchase platform. In the model, Affordability was measured with prices. The Competition consists of two parts: generic competition and therapeutic class competition which are measured with generic competitors and therapeutic substitutes. Instrument variable is used to deal with endogeneity. The policy helped control prices of essential medicines for women's health. Generic competition helped control prices, however, therapeutic class competition caused higher prices. The new policy helped enhance the affordability of essential medicines for women's health as expected, which provides empirical evidence on price deregulation. Besides, generic competition is important in price control despite strict regulatory system in China.

Impacts of Changing Marijuana Policies on Alcohol Use in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Guttmannova, Katarina; Lee, Christine M.; Kilmer, Jason R.; Fleming, Charles B.; Rhew, Isaac C.; Kosterman, Rick; Larimer, Mary E.

2015-01-01

Background Marijuana policies are rapidly evolving. In the United States, recreational use of marijuana is now legal in four states and medical marijuana is legal in 23 states. Research evaluating such policies has focused primarily on how policies affect issues of price, access to, use, and consequences of marijuana. Due to potential spillover effects, researchers also need to examine how marijuana policies may impact use and consequences of alcohol. Methods The current paper is a critical review of articles evaluating alcohol outcomes associated with marijuana decriminalization, medical marijuana legalization, and non-medical or recreational marijuana legalization. We identified articles and reports through (1) online searches of EBSCO host database including Academic search premier, Econlit, Legal collection, Medline, Psych articles, and PsycINFO, as well as PubMed and Google Scholar databases; (2) review of additional articles cited in papers identified through electronic searches; and (3) targeted searches of state and local government records regarding marijuana law implementation. We reviewed studies with respect to their data sources and sample characteristics, methodology, and the margin of alcohol and marijuana use, timing of policy change, and the aspects of laws examined. Results The extant literature provides some evidence for both substitution (i.e., more liberal marijuana policies related to less alcohol use as marijuana becomes a substitute) and complementary (i.e., more liberal marijuana policies related to increases in both marijuana and alcohol use) relationships in the context of liberalization of marijuana policies in the United States. Conclusions Impact of more liberal marijuana policies on alcohol use is complex, and likely depends on specific aspects of policy implementation, including how long the policy has been in place. Further, evaluation of marijuana policy effects on alcohol use may be sensitive to the age group studied and the

Impact of stakeholders' interests on financial accounting policy-making : the case of Lithuania

OpenAIRE

Rudžionienė, Kristina

2006-01-01

This paper analyses the expectations of particular stakeholder groups’ impact on corporate financial accounting policy-making in Lithuanian enterprises from Stakeholder theory perspective. Companies should seek to present a true and fair view of their financial performance and results while making financial accounting policy because stakeholders need informative and truthful accounting data for making right decisions. On the basis of empirical results it could be stated that the impact of dif...

The Impact of School Tobacco Policies on Student Smoking in Washington State, United States and Victoria, Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard F. Catalano

2010-02-01

Full Text Available This paper measures tobacco polices in statewide representative samples of secondary and mixed schools in Victoria, Australia and Washington, US (N = 3,466 students from 285 schools and tests their association with student smoking. Results from confounder-adjusted random effects (multi-level regression models revealed that the odds of student perception of peer smoking on school grounds are decreased in schools that have strict enforcement of policy (odds ratio (OR = 0.45; 95% CI: 0.25 to 0.82; p = 0.009. There was no clear evidence in this study that a comprehensive smoking ban, harsh penalties, remedial penalties, harm minimization policy or abstinence policy impact on any of the smoking outcomes.

The impact of fiscal and monetary policies on unemployment problem in Nigeria (managerial economic perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nick Attamah

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the impact of fiscal and Monetary Policies on Unemployment Problem in Nigeria and covers the periods 1980 to 2013. To achieve this, fiscal policy was captured here by government expenditures and revenues respectively while monetary policy was proxied by broad Money Supply (M2, Interest and Exchange rates respectively. The methodology adopted was econometric analysis employing OLS techniques and unit roots of the series were examined using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller after which the co-integration tests was conducted using the Engle Granger approach. Error correction models were estimated to take care of the short run dynamics. It was found that while government expenditure had a positive relationship with unemployment problem in Nigeria, the result of government revenue was negative and insignificant on unemployment problem. For monetary policy, it was found that money supply and exchange rate had positive and significant impact while interest rate has only a positive relationship on unemployment problem in Nigeria. This meets the a priori expectation. The study also revealed that increases in interest and exchange rates escalate unemployment by increasing cost of production which discourages the private sector from employing large workforce. On the other hand, national productivity measured by real GDP had a negative and significant impact on unemployment rate in Nigeria. This paper recommends that for an effective combat to unemployment problem in Nigeria, there should be a systematic diversion of strategies, thus more emphasis should be laid on aggressively pursuing entrepreneurial development and increased productivity. Again government should aggressively focus on investment, employment generation and economic growth that has mechanism to trickle does to the masses

Knowledge mobilisation for policy development: implementing systems approaches through participatory dynamic simulation modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Freebairn, Louise; Rychetnik, Lucie; Atkinson, Jo-An; Kelly, Paul; McDonnell, Geoff; Roberts, Nick; Whittall, Christine; Redman, Sally

2017-10-02

Evidence-based decision-making is an important foundation for health policy and service planning decisions, yet there remain challenges in ensuring that the many forms of available evidence are considered when decisions are being made. Mobilising knowledge for policy and practice is an emergent process, and one that is highly relational, often messy and profoundly context dependent. Systems approaches, such as dynamic simulation modelling can be used to examine both complex health issues and the context in which they are embedded, and to develop decision support tools. This paper reports on the novel use of participatory simulation modelling as a knowledge mobilisation tool in Australian real-world policy settings. We describe how this approach combined systems science methodology and some of the core elements of knowledge mobilisation best practice. We describe the strategies adopted in three case studies to address both technical and socio-political issues, and compile the experiential lessons derived. Finally, we consider the implications of these knowledge mobilisation case studies and provide evidence for the feasibility of this approach in policy development settings. Participatory dynamic simulation modelling builds on contemporary knowledge mobilisation approaches for health stakeholders to collaborate and explore policy and health service scenarios for priority public health topics. The participatory methods place the decision-maker at the centre of the process and embed deliberative methods and co-production of knowledge. The simulation models function as health policy and programme dynamic decision support tools that integrate diverse forms of evidence, including research evidence, expert knowledge and localised contextual information. Further research is underway to determine the impact of these methods on health service decision-making.

The Impact of Trade Policy on Industry Concentration in Switzerland

OpenAIRE

Burghardt, Dirk

2013-01-01

This paper studies the impact of trade policy on industry concentration. Based on the Swiss Business Census, concentration levels for all four-digit manufacturing industries in Switzerland are calculated. Then the effect of a bilateral reduction in technical barriers to trade with the European Union is estimated. Adopting a difference-in-differences approach, it turns out that concentration in affected industries with low R&D intensity increased significantly following the policy change. This...

Discharge Fee Policy Analysis: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model of Water Resources and Water Environments

OpenAIRE

Guohua Fang; Ting Wang; Xinyi Si; Xin Wen; Yu Liu

2016-01-01

To alleviate increasingly serious water pollution and shortages in developing countries, various kinds of policies have been implemented by local governments. It is vital to quantify and evaluate the performance and potential economic impacts of these policies. This study develops a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the regional economic and environmental effects of discharge fees. Firstly, water resources and water environment factors are separated from the input and out...

(How) does sectoral detail affect the robustness of policy insights from energy system models? The refining sector's example

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nicolas, Claire; Saint-Antonin, Valerie; Tchung-Ming, Stephane

2014-01-01

In this research, we rekindle an old debate by questioning the impact on mitigating policy evaluation of detailing a sub-sector in a global energy-transportation model. We chose the refining sector because it is a relevant case of a sector for which representation widely differs across models and because it offers a unique set of complex joint production in the energy sector. To investigate whether the level of detail in the description of the refinery impacts optimal mitigation options, we take the example of a long-term, national, linear programming based, energy-transport system model (TIMES based). We found that the refinery description used in the energy system model matters when trying to evaluate energy or climate policy applied to the transportation sector. It impacts the policy costs but also the technology trajectories chosen at the optimum. Essentially, the balance between energy efficiency and carbon intensity of transport may be affected by the accuracy of the description of the pivotal refining sector. Consequently, increasing this sector accuracy level should not only be motivated by the wish to gain wider quantitative insights on potential evolution of the energy system but also by the wish to improve the robustness of the model outcomes. (authors)

Impacts of the Fukushima Daiichi Accident on Nuclear Development Policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vance, Robert; Henderson, David; ); Moore, Laurie

2017-01-01

The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident has had an impact on the development of nuclear power around the world. While the accident was followed by thorough technical assessments of the safety of all operating nuclear power plants, and a general increase in safety requirements has been observed worldwide, national policy responses have been more varied. These responses have ranged from countries phasing out or accelerating decisions to phase out nuclear energy to countries reducing their reliance on nuclear power or on the contrary continuing to pursue or expand their nuclear power programs. This study examines changes to policies, and plans and attempts to distinguish the impact of the Fukushima Daiichi accident from other factors that have affected policy-making in relation to nuclear energy, in particular electricity market economics, financing challenges and competition from other sources (gas, coal and renewables). It also examines changes over time to long-term, quantitative country projections, which reveal interesting trends on the possible role of nuclear energy in future energy systems. (authors)

Distributed Wind Policy Comparison Tool Guidebook

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2011-11-01

Power through Policy: 'Best Practices' for Cost-Effective Distributed Wind is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-funded project to identify distributed wind technology policy best practices and to help policymakers, utilities, advocates, and consumers examine their effectiveness using a pro forma model. Incorporating a customized feed from the Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency (DSIRE), the Web-based Distributed Wind Policy Comparison Tool (Policy Tool) is designed to assist state, local, and utility officials in understanding the financial impacts of different policy options to help reduce the cost of distributed wind technologies. The Policy Tool can be used to evaluate the ways that a variety of federal and state policies and incentives impact the economics of distributed wind (and subsequently its expected market growth). It also allows policymakers to determine the impact of policy options, addressing market challenges identified in the U.S. DOE's '20% Wind Energy by 2030' report and helping to meet COE targets.

Impact of monetary policy on the volatility of stock market in pakistan

OpenAIRE

Abdul Qayyum; Saba Anwa

2010-01-01

This paper addresses the linkages between the monetary policy and the stock market in Pakistan. The estimation technique employed includes Engle Granger two step procedure and the bivariate EGARCH method. The results indicate that any change in the monetary policy stance have a significant impact on the volatility of the stock market. Thus contributing to the ongoing debate in the monetary policy rule literature regarding the proactive and reactive approach.

Turning the big knob: an evaluation of the use of energy policy to modulate future climate impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pielke, R.A. Jnr.; Klein, R.; Sarewitz, D.

2000-01-01

Conventional wisdom on climate change policy is straightforward: reducing greenhouse gas emissions will avoid the increased frequency and magnitude of climate impacts on environment and society that might occur if emissions are not controlled. The proponents of conventional wisdom widely consider energy policy to be the main policy tool available to decision makers to intentionally modulate future climate impacts. In this paper we challenge the notion that policy makers should intentionally use energy policy to modulate future climate impacts. The paper argues that policy makers may well make large changes in energy policy (and future emissions) without significantly affecting future climate impacts. In other words, even if a theoretical case could be made that energy policy could be used intentionally to modulate future climate, other factors will play a larger role in creating future impact.y and are arguably more amenable to policy change. To illustrate this conclusion, the paper presents a sensitivity analysis under the assumptions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the case of tropical cyclones. One implication of the paper's conclusions is that policy responses to extreme weather events should be decoupled from considerations of energy policy. This decoupling is not intended to diminish either the importance of responding to climate change or of energy policy. Rather, it is to emphasise that there are many responses under the rubric of adaptation that could play a much greater role in reducing societal vulnerability to losses. One of the implications of this change is that scientific uncertainty need not stand in the way of effective action because the measures proposed make sense under any future climate scenario. (author)

Impact of policies and measures devoted to the abatement of greenhouse gas emissions; L'impact des politiques et mesures destinees a reduire les emissions de gaz a effet de serre

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2002-07-01

This document is the proceedings of the 7. session of the series of conferences on energy policies jointly organized by the general commission of national development and the general direction of energy and raw materials (DGEMP). A first part is devoted to the presentation of the report entitled 'greenhouse effect: economic modeling and public decision'. This report presents the work carried out for the building of a reference scenario for the evaluation of the expected impact of policies and measures on the evolution of CO{sub 2} emissions. A second part gives some comments about the cost-benefit impacts of environmental policies and the last part summarizes the interventions of some of the participants during the debates. (J.S.)

Moving communities toward policy change: APPEAL's 4-prong policy change model.

Science.gov (United States)

Tong, Elisa K; Lew, Rod

2013-09-01

Policy change is recognized for underlying much of the success of tobacco control. However, there is little evidence and attention on how Asian American and Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (AA and NHPI) communities may engage in policy change. Challenges for AA and NHPI communities include the racial/ethnic and geographic diversity, and tobacco data accurately representing the communities. Over the past decade, the Asian Pacific Partners for Empowerment, Advocacy and Leadership (APPEAL) has worked to develop and implement policy change for AA and NHPI communities. This article describes APPEAL's 4-prong policy change model, in the context of its overall strategic framework for policy change with communities that accounts for varying levels of readiness and leadership capacity, and targets four different levels of policy change (community, mainstream institution, legislative, and corporate). The health promotion implication of this framework for tobacco control policy engagement is for improving understanding of effective pathways to policy change, promoting innovative methods for policy analysis, and translating them into effective implementation and sustainability of policy initiatives. The APPEAL strategic framework can transcend into other communities and health topics that ultimately may contribute to the elimination of health disparities.

The Impact of Privatization and Commercialization Policy on the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study examined the impact of privatization and commercialization policy on the attainment of millennium development goals in the Nigerian economy. To achieve this objective, an econometric analysis of ordinary least squares regression method was used. The results showed that the privatization and ...

Influencing policy through impact evaluation in Latin America and ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

IDRC's Supporting Inclusive Growth (SIG) program supports the strengthening of research capacity, to generate and use evidence that contributes to informed public dialogue and policymaking. Impact Evaluation for Policy Making: A Close Look at Latin American Countries with Weaker Research Capacities, the fourth title ...

Impact of US biofuel policy on US corn and gasoline price variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McPhail, Lihong Lu; Babcock, Bruce A.

2012-01-01

Despite a large number of studies that examine the influence of biofuels and biofuel policy on commodity prices, the impact of biofuel policy on commodity price variability is poorly understood. A good understanding of biofuel policy’s impact on price variability is important for mitigating food insecurity and assisting policy formation. We examine how U.S. ethanol policies such as the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates and the blend wall affect the price variability of corn and gasoline. We first present an analytical and graphical framework to identify the effect and then use stochastic partial equilibrium simulation to measure the magnitude of the impacts. We show that RFS mandates and the blend wall both reduce the price elasticity of demand for corn and gasoline and therefore increase the price variability when supply shocks occur to the markets. This has important implications for policy actions with respect to maintaining or changing the current RFS mandates and/or blend wall in the US. -- Highlights: ► The RFS is found to lead to less elastic demand for corn and gasoline. ► Thus the RFS is also found to lead to more volatile corn and gasoline prices when supply shocks occur. ► The ethanol blend wall is found to lead to less elastic corn and gasoline demand. ► Thus the blend wall is also found to lead to more volatile corn and gasoline prices.

Determining the privacy policy deficiencies of health ICT applications through semi-formal modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Croll, Peter R

2011-02-01

To ensure that patient confidentiality is securely maintained, health ICT applications that contain sensitive personal information demand comprehensive privacy policies. Determining the adequacy of these policies to meet legal conformity together with clinical users and patient expectation is demanding in practice. Organisations and agencies looking to analyse their Privacy and Security policies can benefit from guidance provided by outside entities such as the Privacy Office of their State or Government together with law firms and ICT specialists. The advice given is not uniform and often open to different interpretations. Of greater concern is the possibility of overlooking any important aspects that later result in a data breach. Based on three case studies, this paper considers whether a more formal approach to privacy analysis could be taken that would help identify the full coverage of a Privacy Impact Analysis and determine the deficiencies with an organisation's current policies and approach. A diagrammatic model showing the relationships between Confidentiality, Privacy, Trust, Security and Safety is introduced. First the validity of this model is determined by mapping it against the real-world case studies taken from three healthcare services that depend on ICT. Then, by using software engineering methods, a formal mapping of the relationships is undertaken to identify a full set of policies needed to satisfy the model. How effective this approach may prove as a generic method for deriving a comprehensive set of policies in health ICT applications is finally discussed. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of school peanut-free policies on epinephrine administration.

Science.gov (United States)

Bartnikas, Lisa M; Huffaker, Michelle F; Sheehan, William J; Kanchongkittiphon, Watcharoot; Petty, Carter R; Leibowitz, Robert; Hauptman, Marissa; Young, Michael C; Phipatanakul, Wanda

2017-08-01

Children with food allergies spend a large proportion of time in school but characteristics of allergic reactions in schools are not well studied. Some schools self-designate as peanut-free or have peanut-free areas, but the impact of policies on clinical outcomes has not been evaluated. We sought to determine the effect of peanut-free policies on rates of epinephrine administration for allergic reactions in Massachusetts public schools. In this retrospective study, we analyzed (1) rates of epinephrine administration in all Massachusetts public schools and (2) Massachusetts public school nurse survey reports of school peanut-free policies from 2006 to 2011 and whether schools self-designated as "peanut-free" based on policies. Rates of epinephrine administration were compared for schools with or without peanut-restrictive policies. The percentage of schools with peanut-restrictive policies did not change significantly in the study time frame. There was variability in policies used by schools self-designated as peanut-free. No policy was associated with complete absence of allergic reactions. Both self-designated peanut-free schools and schools banning peanuts from being served in school or brought from home reported allergic reactions to nuts. Policies restricting peanuts from home, served in schools, or having peanut-free classrooms did not affect epinephrine administration rates. Schools with peanut-free tables, compared to without, had lower rates of epinephrine administration (incidence rate per 10,000 students 0.2 and 0.6, respectively, P = .009). These data provide a basis for evidence-based school policies for children with food allergies. Further studies are required before decisions can be made regarding peanut-free policies in schools. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The distribution of economic impacts among rural households: A general equilibrium evaluation of regional water policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wernstedt, K.

1991-01-01

This study focuses on the relative distribution among urban and rural household income classes on the economic impacts of two water-related policies in the Columbia River Basin in the northwestern US. The two policies involve: (1) strategies to improve downstream anadromous fish migrations currently hindered by hydropower operations; and (2) proposals to transfer water from irrigation to hydropower generation. A regional input-output model traces the economic effects of the initial demand and price changes through the entire region. The model incorporates price changes in both a short-run (all endogenous prices are fixed) and a longer-run framework based on a Cobb-Douglas representation (all prices can vary). The analysis suggests that the construction of facilities to enhance fish migration and the physical transport of fish have opposite relative effects. The former benefits rural households, while the latter benefits urban households. Electricity price increases resulting from altered hydropower operations harm middle-income rural households, in the short-run. In the longer-run, electricity price increases seem to favor relatively all rural households. Changes associated with the water transfer policy also include electricity price alterations, as well as price and demand changes for agricultural products. Rural households benefit relative to urban households from agricultural product final demand increases, and tend to lose relatively with agricultural price and demand decreases. The inclusion of secondary impacts allows decision makers to asses the income effects of a project across a wider segment of the population, while the incorporation of short-and longer-run economic frameworks allows policy makers to assess both immediate and future income changes

Climate policies and learning by doing: Impacts and timing of technology subsidies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kverndokk, Snorre; Rosendahl, Knut Einar

2007-01-01

We study the role of technology subsidies in climate policies, using a simple dynamic equilibrium model with learning by doing. The optimal subsidy rate of a carbon-free technology is high when the technology is first adopted, but falls significantly over the next decades. However, the efficiency costs of uniform instead of optimal subsidies, may be low if there are adjustment costs for a new technology. Finally, supporting existing energy technologies only, may lead to technology lock-in, and the impacts of lock-in increase with the learning potential of new technologies as well as the possibilities for early entry. (author)

A Policy Language for Modelling Recommendations

Science.gov (United States)

Abou El Kalam, Anas; Balbiani, Philippe

While current and emergent applications become more and more complex, most of existing security policies and models only consider a yes/no response to the access requests. Consequently, modelling, formalizing and implementing permissions, obligations and prohibitions do not cover the richness of all the possible scenarios. In fact, several applications have access rules with the recommendation access modality. In this paper we focus on the problem of formalizing security policies with recommendation needs. The aim is to provide a generic domain-independent formal system for modelling not only permissions, prohibitions and obligations, but also recommendations. In this respect, we present our logic-based language, the semantics, the truth conditions, our axiomatic as well as inference rules. We also give a representative use case with our specification of recommendation requirements. Finally, we explain how our logical framework could be used to query the security policy and to check its consistency.

Screenplays: From knowledge to devicing policies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Damjana Gantar

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Public policies and related interventions cause diverse territorial impacts; intended and wanted as well as lateral, indirect and unwanted ones. Strategic impact assessments are commonly used to identify and assess these impacts. Besides, the main intention of impact assessments is to influence and optimize the policy actions in terms of their impacts. Forecasting of future development and identification of impacts is a complex task, charged with uncertainties, which requires resourceful use and combination of different tools. Scenarios are among the most effective forecasting, communication and policy design tools. The paper presents the use of scenarios in a strategic environmental impact assessment for a high speed rail in Slovenia. Scenarios were used as an input for environmental vulnerability modelling. Acceptability of environmental costs brought about by planned intervention can only be assessed based on knowledge about the changes/benefits.

Multilateral negotiations over climate change policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Costa Pinto, L.M.; Harrison, G.W. [Universidade do Minho, Braga (Portugal). Nucleo de Investigacao em Microeconomia Aplicada, Departmento de Economia

2000-07-01

Negotiations in the real world have many features that tend to be ignored in policy modelling. They are often multilateral, involving many negotiating parties with preferences over outcomes that can differ substantially. They are also often multi-dimensional, in the sense that several policies are negotiated over simultaneously. Trade negotiations are a prime example, as are negotiations over environmental policies to abate CO{sub 2}. The authors demonstrate how one can formally model this type of negotiation process. They use a policy-oriented computable general equilibrium model to generate preference functions which are then used in a formal multilateral bargaining game. The case study is on climate change policy, but the main contribution is to demonstrate how one can integrate formal economic models of the impacts of policies with formal bargaining models of the negotiations over those policies. 8 refs., 2 figs., 6 tabs.

Streamflow impacts of biofuel policy-driven landscape change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sami Khanal

Full Text Available Likely changes in precipitation (P and potential evapotranspiration (PET resulting from policy-driven expansion of bioenergy crops in the United States are shown to create significant changes in streamflow volumes and increase water stress in the High Plains. Regional climate simulations for current and biofuel cropping system scenarios are evaluated using the same atmospheric forcing data over the period 1979-2004 using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF model coupled to the NOAH land surface model. PET is projected to increase under the biofuel crop production scenario. The magnitude of the mean annual increase in PET is larger than the inter-annual variability of change in PET, indicating that PET increase is a forced response to the biofuel cropping system land use. Across the conterminous U.S., the change in mean streamflow volume under the biofuel scenario is estimated to range from negative 56% to positive 20% relative to a business-as-usual baseline scenario. In Kansas and Oklahoma, annual streamflow volume is reduced by an average of 20%, and this reduction in streamflow volume is due primarily to increased PET. Predicted increase in mean annual P under the biofuel crop production scenario is lower than its inter-annual variability, indicating that additional simulations would be necessary to determine conclusively whether predicted change in P is a response to biofuel crop production. Although estimated changes in streamflow volume include the influence of P change, sensitivity results show that PET change is the significantly dominant factor causing streamflow change. Higher PET and lower streamflow due to biofuel feedstock production are likely to increase water stress in the High Plains. When pursuing sustainable biofuels policy, decision-makers should consider the impacts of feedstock production on water scarcity.

Assessing groundwater policy with coupled economic-groundwater hydrologic modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Mulligan, Kevin B.; Brown, Casey; Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Ahlfeld, David P.

2014-03-01

This study explores groundwater management policies and the effect of modeling assumptions on the projected performance of those policies. The study compares an optimal economic allocation for groundwater use subject to streamflow constraints, achieved by a central planner with perfect foresight, with a uniform tax on groundwater use and a uniform quota on groundwater use. The policies are compared with two modeling approaches, the Optimal Control Model (OCM) and the Multi-Agent System Simulation (MASS). The economic decision models are coupled with a physically based representation of the aquifer using a calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model. The results indicate that uniformly applied policies perform poorly when simulated with more realistic, heterogeneous, myopic, and self-interested agents. In particular, the effects of the physical heterogeneity of the basin and the agents undercut the perceived benefits of policy instruments assessed with simple, single-cell groundwater modeling. This study demonstrates the results of coupling realistic hydrogeology and human behavior models to assess groundwater management policies. The Republican River Basin, which overlies a portion of the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, is used as a case study for this analysis.

A real option-based model to valuate CDM projects under uncertain energy policies for emission trading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Taeil; Kim, Changyoon; Kim, Hyoungkwan

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A real option-based model for the valuation of CDM projects is proposed. • This study investigates the impact of energy policies on the value of CDM projects. • Level of target emission and its schedule should be carefully designed. • Government subsidy facilitates the implementation of CDM projects. • Period for free emission allowance prevents promoting CDM projects. - Abstract: Emission trading has been considered a primary policy tool for emission reduction. Governments establish national targets for emission reduction and assign emission reduction goals to private entities to accomplish the targets. To attain the goal, private entities should perform offset projects that can produce emission credits or buy emission credits from the market. However, it is not easy for private entities to decide to implement the projects because energy policies associated with emission trading keep changing; thus, the future benefits of the offset projects are quite uncertain. This study presents a real option-based model to investigate how uncertain energy policies affect the financial viability of an offset project. A case study showed that the establishment of a target emission was attractive to the government because it could make the CDM project financially viable with a small amount of government subsidy. In addition, the level of the government subsidy could determine the investment timing for the CDM project. In this context, governments should be cautious in designing energy policies, because even the same energy policies could have different impacts on private entities. Overall, this study is expected to assist private entities in establishing proper investment strategies for CDM projects under uncertain energy policies

Developing research about extreme events and impacts to support international climate policy

Science.gov (United States)

Otto, Friederike; James, Rachel; Parker, Hannah; Boyd, Emily; Jones, Richard; Allen, Myles; Mitchell, Daniel; Cornforth, Rosalind

2015-04-01

Climate change is expected to have some of its most significant impacts through changes in the frequency and severity of extreme events. There is a pressing need for policy to support adaptation to changing climate risks, and to deal with residual loss and damage from climate change. In 2013, the Warsaw International Mechanism was established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to address loss and damage in developing countries. Strategies to help vulnerable regions cope with losses from extreme events will presumably require information about the influence of anthropogenic forcing on extreme weather. But what kind of scientific evidence will be most useful for the Warsaw Mechanism? And how can the scientific communities working on extreme events and impacts develop their research to support the advance of this important policy? As climate scientists conducting probabilistic event attribution studies, we have been working with social scientists to investigate these questions. Our own research seeks to examine the role of external drivers, including greenhouse gas emissions, on the risk of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, flooding, and drought. We use large ensembles of climate models to compute the probability of occurrence of extreme events under current conditions and in a world which might have been without anthropogenic interference. In cases where the models are able to simulate extreme weather, the analysis allows for conclusions about the extent to which climate change may have increased, decreased, or made no change to the risk of the event occurring. These results could thus have relevance for the UNFCCC negotiations on loss and damage, and we have been communicating with policymakers and observers to the policy process to better understand how we can develop our research to support their work; by attending policy meetings, conducting interviews, and using a participatory game developed with the Red Cross

Impact Of Monetary Policy On Financial Asset Returns: An Analysis ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Impact Of Monetary Policy On Financial Asset Returns: An Analysis Of Selected Stocks From The Nigerian Capital Market. ... Journal of Research in National Development. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current ...

Comparison of policies on vehicle ownership and use between Beijing and Shanghai and their impacts on fuel consumption by passenger vehicles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hao Han; Wang Hewu; Ouyang Minggao

2011-01-01

The fast growth of vehicle population in China has caused problems such as traffic congestion and excessive fuel consumption. There have been demands for policy control on growth in private vehicle travel demand. Beijing and Shanghai are China's first two cities to implement policies on vehicle ownership and use. In this paper, we compared policies in the two cities and estimated their impacts on fuel consumption by passenger vehicles. The limitation of vehicle use in Beijing provides limited but immediate reduction in fuel consumption. The limitation of vehicle ownership in Shanghai provides large potential of fuel conservation in a longer term. Under current policy, fuel consumptions by passenger vehicles in Beijing and Shanghai in 2020 were estimated to reach 7.5 and 3.9 billion liters, respectively. The experiences of Beijing and Shanghai are highly relevant for cities in China and abroad that are facing the same problems. - Research Highlights: → Beijing and Shanghai are the first two cities in China to implement policies on vehicle ownership and use. This paper compared policies in the two cities and evaluated their effectiveness. → A bottom-up model was established to simulate the fuel consumption by passenger vehicles. By using this model, fuel consumptions by passenger vehicles in Beijing and Shanghai from 1990 to 2020 under two scenarios of current policy and no policy were estimated. Under current policy, fuel consumptions by passenger vehicles in Beijing and Shanghai in 2020 were estimated to reach 7.5 and 3.9 billion liters, respectively. → This paper discussed the benefits and negative impacts of policies in Beijing and Shanghai, which are highly relevant for cities in China and abroad that are facing the problems of traffic congestion and excessive vehicle fuel consumption.

The Impact of Assessment Policy on Learning: Replacement Exams or Grade Dropping

Science.gov (United States)

MacDermott, Raymond J.

2013-01-01

Instructors often debate the merits of alternate grading policies such as dropping the lowest exam or offering an additional exam to replace the lowest score. To date, there has been little research conducted on the impact of these policies on performance. In this study, the author investigates student performance in intermediate macroeconomics…

Equity impact of population-level interventions and policies to reduce smoking in adults: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Tamara; Platt, Stephen; Amos, Amanda

2014-05-01

There is strong evidence about which tobacco control policies reduce smoking. However, their equity impact is uncertain. The aim was to assess the effectiveness of population-level interventions/policies to reduce socioeconomic inequalities in adult smoking. Systematic review of studies of population-level interventions/policies reporting smoking-related outcomes in adults of lower compared to higher socioeconomic status (SES). References were screened and independently checked. Studies were quality assessed. Results are presented in a narrative synthesis. Equity impact was assessed as: positive (reduced inequality), neutral (no difference by SES), negative (increased inequality), mixed (equity impact varied) or unclear. 117 studies of 130 interventions/policies were included: smokefree (44); price/tax (27); mass media campaigns (30); advertising controls (9); cessation support (9); settings-based interventions (7); multiple policies (4). The distribution of equity effects was: 33 positive, 36 neutral, 38 negative, 6 mixed, 17 unclear. Most neutral equity studies benefited all SES groups. Fourteen price/tax studies were equity positive. Voluntary, regional and partial smokefree policies were more likely to be equity negative than national, comprehensive smokefree policies. Mass media campaigns had inconsistent equity effects. Cigarette marketing controls were equity positive or neutral. Targeted national smoking cessation services can be equity positive by achieving higher reach among low SES, compensating for lower quit rates. Few studies have assessed the equity impact of tobacco control policy/interventions. Price/tax increases had the most consistent positive equity impact. More research is needed to strengthen the evidence-base for reducing smoking inequalities and to develop effective equity-orientated tobacco control strategies. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Wellbeing impacts of city policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hiscock, Rosemary; Mudu, Pierpaolo; Braubach, Matthias

2014-01-01

To mitigate climate change, city authorities are developing policies in areas such as transportation, housing and energy use, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to their effects on greenhouse gas emissions, these policies are likely to have consequences for the wellbeing...... and subjective aspects which can be measured quantitatively; our review of measures informs the development of a theoretical model linking wellbeing to policies which cities use to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, we discuss the extent to which the links proposed in the conceptual model are supported...

The impact of tobacco control policies in Albania.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaloshnja, Eduard; Ross, Hana; Levy, David T

2010-12-01

To assess the impact of a tobacco control law adopted in Albania in 2007 and to estimate the share of illicit cigarettes on the market. Comparative analysis of two waves of a nationally representative household survey, one conducted before the new law went into effect and the other after 2 years. Official sales data were contrasted with the consumption estimate based on the survey. Smoking prevalence, quit attempts, exposure to cigarette advertising, exposure to second-hand smoke, total cigarette consumption, share of illicit packs among packs possessed by smokers. Despite the adoption of strong smoke-free policies and adverting restrictions, smoking prevalence in Albania has risen. The increase in prevalence has been driven by higher smoking rates among females (18.9% in 2007 vs 29.3% in 2009) and young adults (23.2% in 2007 vs 38.5% in 2009 among 18-19 year olds). Self-reported exposure to second-hand smoke and cigarette advertising have been reduced since 2007. The majority of respondents are still exposed to second-hand smoke and more than half are exposed to tobacco advertising. Nevertheless, there are signs that the consumption of illicit cigarettes is declining. The impacts of smoke-free policies and an advertising ban have been limited due to lack of enforcement and failure to adopt a comprehensive set of tobacco control measures. These measures should include sizeable and regular tobacco tax increases in excess of the general level of inflation and income growth. The decline in the share of illicit cigarettes should improve the effectiveness of the cigarette tax policy.

The role of public policies in reducing smoking: the Minnesota SimSmoke tobacco policy model.

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, David T; Boyle, Raymond G; Abrams, David B

2012-11-01

Following the landmark lawsuit and settlement with the tobacco industry, Minnesota pursued the implementation of stricter tobacco control policies, including tax increases, mass media campaigns, smokefree air laws, and cessation treatment policies. Modeling is used to examine policy effects on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. To estimate the effect of tobacco control policies in Minnesota on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths using the SimSmoke simulation model. Minnesota data starting in 1993 are applied to SimSmoke, a simulation model used to examine the effect of tobacco control policies over time on smoking initiation and cessation. Upon validating the model against smoking prevalence, SimSmoke is used to distinguish the effect of policies implemented since 1993 on smoking prevalence. Using standard attribution methods, SimSmoke also estimates deaths averted as a result of the policies. SimSmoke predicts smoking prevalence accurately between 1993 and 2011. Since 1993, a relative reduction in smoking rates of 29% by 2011 and of 41% by 2041 can be attributed to tobacco control policies, mainly tax increases, smokefree air laws, media campaigns, and cessation treatment programs. Moreover, 48,000 smoking-attributable deaths will be averted by 2041. Minnesota SimSmoke demonstrates that tobacco control policies, especially taxes, have substantially reduced smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Taxes, smokefree air laws, mass media, cessation treatment policies, and youth-access enforcement contributed to the decline in prevalence and deaths averted, with the strongest component being taxes. With stronger policies, for example, increasing cigarette taxes to $4.00 per pack, Minnesota's smoking rate could be reduced by another 13%, and 7200 deaths could be averted by 2041. Copyright © 2012 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reducing US cardiovascular disease burden and disparities through national and targeted dietary policies: A modelling study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Large socio-economic disparities exist in US dietary habits and cardiovascular disease (CVD mortality. While economic incentives have demonstrated success in improving dietary choices, the quantitative impact of different dietary policies on CVD disparities is not well established. We aimed to quantify and compare the potential effects on total CVD mortality and disparities of specific dietary policies to increase fruit and vegetable (F&V consumption and reduce sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB consumption in the US.Using the US IMPACT Food Policy Model and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, we estimated and compared the reductions in CVD mortality and socio-economic disparities in the US population potentially achievable from 2015 to 2030 with specific dietary policy scenarios: (a a national mass media campaign (MMC aimed to increase consumption of F&Vs and reduce consumption of SSBs, (b a national fiscal policy to tax SSBs to increase prices by 10%, (c a national fiscal policy to subsidise F&Vs to reduce prices by 10%, and (d a targeted policy to subsidise F&Vs to reduce prices by 30% among Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP participants only. We also evaluated a combined policy approach, combining all of the above policies. Data sources included the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, National Vital Statistics System, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, and published meta-analyses. Among the individual policy scenarios, a national 10% F&V subsidy was projected to be most beneficial, potentially resulting in approximately 150,500 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 141,400-158,500 CVD deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs by 2030 in the US. This far exceeds the approximately 35,100 (95% UI 31,700-37,500 DPPs potentially attributable to a 30% F&V subsidy targeting SNAP participants, the approximately 25,800 (95% UI 24,300-28,500 DPPs for a 1-y MMC, or the approximately 31,000 (95% UI 26,800-35,300 DPPs for a 10

American Pro-Biofuel and Climate Policies: Impact on the Energy Choices of Brazil and the United States and the Carbon Footprint

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakravorty, Ujjayant; Hubert, Marie-Helene; Moreaux, Michel

2010-01-01

In this paper, a partial trade equilibrium model is developed to explore the impacts of US energy policies on the use and trade of first-generation biofuels (ethanol) and second-generation biofuels (ligno-cellulosic ethanol) in the United-States and Brazil. In addition, we investigate their impacts on direct and indirect carbon emissions. The first policy is the biofuels mandatory target. The second defines a cap on carbon emissions. Our study reveals that the biofuels mandatory target encourages ligno-cellulosic ethanol production, reductions in carbon emissions being marginal. The second policy increases energy prices leading to a decrease in energy consumption as well as in direct carbon emissions. However, this policy has a significant impact on deforestation in Brazil resulting in a rise in indirect carbon emissions. The biofuels subsidy needed to reach the mandatory target amounts to US $ 1.1 per gallon. The US carbon tax reaches US $ 120 per ton equivalent carbon. A differential tax is imposed on gasoline, ethanol and ligno-cellulosic ethanol based on the carbon content. It is respectively equal to US $ 0.38, US $ 0.204 and US $ 0.024

Education Policy in Poland: The Impact of PISA (and Other International Studies)

Science.gov (United States)

Bialecki, Ireneusz; Jakubowski, Maciej; Wisniewski, Jerzy

2017-01-01

The impact of the PISA study on Polish education policy has been significant, but probably different from any other country. Poland has not experienced the so-called "PISA shock," but its education system has been benefiting considerably from PISA. For experts and policy makers, it has been a useful and reliable instrument that has made…

Influencing policy through impact evaluation in Latin America and ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

And there are growing concerns about the ethics of implementing some types of IE. This paper explores recent IE practice in Latin America and reviews more than 300 impact evaluations in 21 countries. It examines the policy issues covered and methodologies used; the research actors and implementing agencies involved; ...

Deforestation, Leakage and Avoided Deforestation Policies: A Spatial Analysis

OpenAIRE

Philippe Delacote; Elizabeth J. Z. Robinson; Sébastien Roussel

2015-01-01

This paper analyses the impact of several avoided deforestation policies within a patchy forested landscape. Central is the idea that one neighbour's deforestation actions may impact the returns to deforestation in nearby patches. We determine the impact of each policy in terms of avoided deforestation and leakage levels at the landscape scale through modelling and simulations. Avoided deforestation policies at a landscape level are respectively: two Payment for Environmental Services (PES) p...

Applications of system dynamics modelling to support health policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Atkinson, Jo-An M; Wells, Robert; Page, Andrew; Dominello, Amanda; Haines, Mary; Wilson, Andrew

2015-07-09

The value of systems science modelling methods in the health sector is increasingly being recognised. Of particular promise is the potential of these methods to improve operational aspects of healthcare capacity and delivery, analyse policy options for health system reform and guide investments to address complex public health problems. Because it lends itself to a participatory approach, system dynamics modelling has been a particularly appealing method that aims to align stakeholder understanding of the underlying causes of a problem and achieve consensus for action. The aim of this review is to determine the effectiveness of system dynamics modelling for health policy, and explore the range and nature of its application. A systematic search was conducted to identify articles published up to April 2015 from the PubMed, Web of Knowledge, Embase, ScienceDirect and Google Scholar databases. The grey literature was also searched. Papers eligible for inclusion were those that described applications of system dynamics modelling to support health policy at any level of government. Six papers were identified, comprising eight case studies of the application of system dynamics modelling to support health policy. No analytic studies were found that examined the effectiveness of this type of modelling. Only three examples engaged multidisciplinary stakeholders in collective model building. Stakeholder participation in model building reportedly facilitated development of a common 'mental map' of the health problem, resulting in consensus about optimal policy strategy and garnering support for collaborative action. The paucity of relevant papers indicates that, although the volume of descriptive literature advocating the value of system dynamics modelling is considerable, its practical application to inform health policy making is yet to be routinely applied and rigorously evaluated. Advances in software are allowing the participatory model building approach to be extended to

Impact of Minimum Driveway Spacing Policies on Safety Performance: An Integrated Traffic Micro-Simulation and Automated Conflict Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chu C. Minh

2014-09-01

Full Text Available A key strategy for successful access management is the adoption of driveway spacing guidelines that consider both safety and operations. The goal is to provide sufficient distance from one driveway to the next so that drivers can perceive and react to the conditions at each potential conflict point in succession. State DOTs across the country have adopted different driveway spacing standards that vary according to the access class and characteristics of the adjacent roadway, such as type of roadway, posted speed limit, and traffic volume. Utilizing the VISSIM microscopic traffic simulation tool and FHWA's Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM, this research examined safety implications of four different driveway spacing policies representing 13 states. The analysis involved calibrating the VISSIM model for an arterial roadway corridor in West Columbia, SC, and then using the calibrated model to simulate various operational changes to the corridor, including speed limits, traffic volumes, and the associated minimum driveway spacing criteria for the four different policies. SSAM was used to analyze vehicle trajectories derived from VISSIM to determine the number of conflict points. Experimental results indicate that posted speed limit and traffic volume are the primary impact factors for driveway safety, and thus, these parameters should be considered in establishing minimum driveway spacing. Findings from this study indicate that there are significant differences in safety impacts between the different driveway spacing policies adopted by various state DOTs.

EU climate policy impact in 2020. With a focus on the effectiveness of emissions trading policy in an economic recession scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Graus, W.; Sreenivasamurthy, U.; Wesselink, B.

2009-06-01

PBL's Environmental Balance 2009 provides information on the current status and trends of environmental and climate policies. Ecofys contributes to the climate policy section of the report by developing the following three indicators: (1) ex-post and ex-ante policy impacts until 2020 at EU level (wedge diagram); (2) business-as-usual emissions of EU ETS sectors until 2020, revised for the current economic recession; (3) a latest literature review of EUA (EU emission allowances) price band expected until 2020. Based on the latter two analyses, a brief note on the impact of the current economic recession on the effectiveness of the EU emission trading scheme until 2020 is presented.An economic recession of two years or longer will considerably decrease the effectiveness of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in stimulating low-carbon technologies. In order to meet EU climate targets in the longer term, new governmental policies will be needed to compensate for this.

Moderation of Policy-Making? : Science and Technology Policy Evaluation Beyond Impact Measurement—the Case of Germany

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuhlmann, Stefan

1998-01-01

In the field of science and technology policies, for the most part, evaluation procedures are utilized as a way of measuring the scientific and technological quality or the socio-economic impacts of publicly funded research. Beyond this practice, could evaluation procedures be used as a medium for

The impact of foresight on environmental science and technology policy in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Meulen, Barend

1999-01-01

Globalisation, high tech development and environmental issues have made policy makers aware again of the possibilities of future studies for policy making. However, the lack of systematic knowledge about their impact is a major obstruction to a proper use of future studies. Especially since future

IMPACT OF ROMANIAN HIGHER EDUCATION FUNDING POLICY ON UNIVERSITY EFFICIENCY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CRETAN Georgiana Camelia

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The issues of higher education funding policy and university operating efficiency are hot points on the actual public agenda worldwide as the pressures exercised upon the public resources increased, especially in the aftermath of the last economic crisis. Concerned with the improvement of the funding mechanism through which government allocates the public funds in order to meet the national core objectives within the area of higher education, the policy makers adjusted the funding policy by diversifying the criteria used in distributing the funds to public universities. Thus, the aim of this research is to underline both the impact and the consequences the public funding patterns of higher education have on the relative efficiency of public funded higher education institutions, across time. Moreover, the research conducted aims to determine whether the changes occurred within the Romanian public funding methodology of higher education institutions improved the relative efficiency scores of public funded universities, before and after the economic crisis of 2008. Thus, on one hand we have underlined the changes brought to the Romanian public funding mechanism of higher education during the years of 2007, 2009 and 2010 compared to the year of 2006, using the content analysis, and on the other hand we assessed and compared the relative efficiency scores of each selected public funded university using a multiple input - multiple output linear programming model, by employing the Data Envelopment Analysis technique. The findings of the research undertaken emphasized that a more performance oriented funding mechanism improves the efficiency scores of public universities. The results of the research undertaken could be used either by the policy makers within the area of higher education or by the administrative management of public universities in order to correlate the funding with the results obtained and/or the objectives assumed by both the

Investment Under Uncertainty and Policy Change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pawlina, G.; Kort, P.M.

2001-01-01

Existing real options literature provides relatively little insight into the impact of structural changes of the economic environment on the investment decision of the firm.We propose a method to model the impact of a policy change on investment behavior in which, contrary to the earlier models

Essays on the U.S. biofuel policies: Welfare impacts and the potential for reduction of GHG emission

Science.gov (United States)

Hossiso, Kassu Wamisho

This dissertation study investigates the impact of the US biofuel policies related to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission regulation, tax credit and renewable fuel standard (RFS2) mandate over production and consumption of ethanol as well as technical and environmental performance of corn ethanol plants. The study develops analytical models and provides quantitative estimation of the impact of various biofuel policies in each of the three chapters. Chapter 1 of this dissertation examines the tradeoff between achieving the environmental goal of minimizing life cycle GHG emissions and minimizing production costs in recently built dry-grind corn ethanol plants. The results indicate that the average ethanol plant is able to reduce GHG emissions by 36 % relative to the level under cost minimization, but production costs are 22 % higher. To move from least cost to least emissions allocations, ethanol plants would on average produce 25 % more of wet byproduct and 47% less of dry byproduct. Using a multi-output, multi-input partial equilibrium model, Chapter 2 explores the impact of the tax credit and RFS2 mandate policy on market price of ethanol, byproducts, corn, and other factor inputs employed in the production of corn ethanol. In the short-run, without tax credit ethanol plants will not have the incentive to produce the minimum level of ethanol required by RFS2. In the long-run, if ethanol plants to have the incentive to produce the minimum RFS2 mandate without tax credit policy, gasoline price will need to increase by order of 50% or more relative to the 2011 price. Chapter 3 develop meta-regression model to investigate the extent to which statistical heterogeneity among results of multiple studies on soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration rates can be related to one or more characteristics of the studies in response to conventional tillage (CT) and no-till (NT). Regarding the difference in the rate of SOC sequestration between NT and CT, our results shows that the

Impacts of potential CO2-reduction policies on air quality in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Trail, Marcus A; Tsimpidi, Alexandra P; Liu, Peng; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Hu, Yongtao; Rudokas, Jason R; Miller, Paul J; Nenes, Athanasios; Russell, Armistead G

2015-04-21

Impacts of emissions changes from four potential U.S. CO2 emission reduction policies on 2050 air quality are analyzed using the community multiscale air quality model (CMAQ). Future meteorology was downscaled from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE General Circulation Model (GCM) to the regional scale using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. We use emissions growth factors from the EPAUS9r MARKAL model to project emissions inventories for two climate tax scenarios, a combined transportation and energy scenario, a biomass energy scenario and a reference case. Implementation of a relatively aggressive carbon tax leads to improved PM2.5 air quality compared to the reference case as incentives increase for facilities to install flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. However, less capital is available to install NOX reduction technologies, resulting in an O3 increase. A policy aimed at reducing CO2 from the transportation sector and electricity production sectors leads to reduced emissions of mobile source NOX, thus reducing O3. Over most of the U.S., this scenario leads to reduced PM2.5 concentrations. However, increased primary PM2.5 emissions associated with fuel switching in the residential and industrial sectors leads to increased organic matter (OM) and PM2.5 in some cities.

Health impact assessment as an agent of policy change: improving the health impacts of the mayor of London's draft transport strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Mindell, J; Sheridan, L; Joffe, M; Samson-Barry, H; Atkinson, S

2004-03-01

To increase the positive and mitigate the negative health impacts of the mayor's draft transport strategy for London. A rapid prospective health impact assessment (HIA) of the penultimate draft of the strategy, using a review commissioned by the regional director of public health; an appraisal of congestion charging; and a participatory workshop. Two audits of changes were performed to assess the impact on policy of the HIA process. Regional government policy development. Recommendations from the rapid HIA were fed back into the drafting process. Changes (a) between the penultimate draft and the draft for public consultation and (b) between that and the final mayoral strategy. The draft transport strategy published for consultation differed in a number of respects from the previous version. Almost all the recommendations from the HIA were incorporated into the final strategy. Significant changes included promoting sustainable travel plans for workplaces and schools; giving priority to infrastructure and services that benefit London's deprived communities; increased emphasis on promoting walking and cycling and reducing reliance on private cars; and a commitment to track the health impacts of the final strategy and its implementation. Specific additions included re-allocating road space. HIA was successful in influencing the transport strategy for London, resulting in several improvements from a health viewpoint. HIA is an effective method both for bringing about significant change in policy proposals and in increasing policy makers' understanding of determinants of health and hence in changing attitudes of policy makers.

Impact of energy policy instruments on the estimated level of underlying energy efficiency in the EU residential sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Filippini, Massimo; Hunt, Lester C.; Zorić, Jelena

2014-01-01

The promotion of energy efficiency is seen as one of the top priorities of EU energy policy (EC, 2010). In order to design and implement effective energy policy instruments, it is necessary to have information on energy demand price and income elasticities in addition to sound indicators of energy efficiency. This research combines the approaches taken in energy demand modelling and frontier analysis in order to econometrically estimate the level of energy efficiency for the residential sector in the EU-27 member states for the period 1996 to 2009. The estimates for the energy efficiency confirm that the EU residential sector indeed holds a relatively high potential for energy savings from reduced inefficiency. Therefore, despite the common objective to decrease ‘wasteful’ energy consumption, considerable variation in energy efficiency between the EU member states is established. Furthermore, an attempt is made to evaluate the impact of energy-efficiency measures undertaken in the EU residential sector by introducing an additional set of variables into the model and the results suggest that financial incentives and energy performance standards play an important role in promoting energy efficiency improvements, whereas informative measures do not have a significant impact. - Highlights: • The level of energy efficiency of the EU residential sector is estimated. • Considerable potential for energy savings from reduced inefficiency is established. • The impact of introduced energy-efficiency policy measures is also evaluated. • Financial incentives are found to promote energy efficiency improvements. • Energy performance standards also play an important role

Residents' perceptions of tourism impacts and attitudes towards tourism policies.

OpenAIRE

Brida, J.G.; Disegna, Marta; Osti, L.

2014-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to explore residents' perceptions of tourism impacts and how they affect attitudes towards local tourism policies. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of community attachment and employment sector of residents. This study presents the results of a quantitative survey among residing families of a small mountain community located in the North-East of Italy. The findings reveal that residents perceptions on economic, environmental and socio-cultural impacts ...

Energy-economic policy modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Sanstad, Alan H.

2018-01-01

Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.

A Collaborative Approach to Bridging the Research-Policy Gap through the Development of Policy Advice Software

Science.gov (United States)

Milne, Barry John; Lay-Yee, Roy; McLay, Jessica; Tobias, Martin; Tuohy, Pat; Armstrong, Ann; Lynn, Robert; Pearson, Janet; Mannion, Oliver; Davis, Peter

2014-01-01

We have developed a software-based tool to support a dynamic micro-simulation model of life-course development (to age 13) as an aid to policy makers assessing the impact of policies affecting children. We demonstrate how this approach bridges the research-policy gap by creating: (1) an easy transfer of evidence in a form that policymakers can use…

Transport Choice Modeling for the Evaluation of New Transport Policies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ander Pijoan

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Quantifying the impact of the application of sustainable transport policies is essential in order to mitigate effects of greenhouse gas emissions produced by the transport sector. One of the most common approaches used for this purpose is that of traffic modelling and simulation, which consists of emulating the operation of an entire road network. This article presents the results of fitting 8 well known data science methods for transport choice modelling, the area in which more research is needed. The models have been trained with information from Biscay province in Spain in order to match as many of its commuters as possible. Results show that the best models correctly forecast more than 51% of the trips recorded. Finally, the results have been validated with a second data set from the Silesian Voivodeship in Poland, showing that all models indeed maintain their forecasting ability.

Moving Communities Toward Policy Change: APPEAL’s 4-Prong Policy Change Model

Science.gov (United States)

Tong, Elisa K.; Lew, Rod

2014-01-01

Policy change is recognized for underlying much of the success of tobacco control. However, there is little evidence and attention on how Asian American and Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (AA and NHPI) communities may engage in policy change. Challenges for AA and NHPI communities include the racial/ethnic and geographic diversity, and tobacco data accurately representing the communities. Over the past decade, the Asian Pacific Partners for Empowerment, Advocacy and Leadership (APPEAL) has worked to develop and implement policy change for AA and NHPI communities. This article describes APPEAL’s 4-prong policy change model, in the context of its overall strategic framework for policy change with communities that accounts for varying levels of readiness and leadership capacity, and targets four different levels of policy change (community, mainstream institution, legislative, and corporate). The health promotion implication of this framework for tobacco control policy engagement is for improving understanding of effective pathways to policy change, promoting innovative methods for policy analysis, and translating them into effective implementation and sustainability of policy initiatives. The APPEAL strategic framework can transcend into other communities and health topics that ultimately may contribute to the elimination of health disparities. PMID:23707962

The impact of fiscal policy on economic growth in Namibia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E Kaakunga

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to shed light on the impact of fiscal policy on growth.  Governments undertake expenditures to pursue a variety of goals, only one of which may be an increase in per capita income.  Using the framework of endogenous growth models which seeks to explain sustained long term growth, we showed how a change in the mix of public spending in favour of productive activities could lead to a steady state growth rate.  The explanatory variables, which affect growth positively, include capital expenditure, tax revenue and the terms of trade.  The share of private consumption in GDP, fiscal deficit, the share of total public debt in GDP and current expenditure relates negatively to the growth rate of output.

Evaluating the impact of climate policies on regional food availability and accessibility using an Integrated Assessment Model

Science.gov (United States)

Gilmore, E.; Cui, Y. R.; Waldhoff, S.

2015-12-01

Beyond 2015, eradicating hunger will remain a critical part of the global development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Efforts to limit climate change through both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use policies may interact with food availability and accessibility in complex and unanticipated ways. Here, we develop projections of regional food accessibility to 2050 under the alternative futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and under different climate policy targets and structures. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), for our projections. We calculate food access as the weighted average of consumption of five staples and the portion of income spend on those commodities and extend the GCAM calculated universal global producer price to regional consumer prices drawing on historical relationships of these prices. Along the SSPs, food access depends largely on expectations of increases in population and economic status. Under a more optimistic scenario, the pressures on food access from increasing demand and rising prices can be counterbalanced by faster economic development. Stringent climate policies that increase commodity prices, however, may hinder vulnerable regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa, from achieving greater food accessibility.

The Near-Term Impacts of Carbon Mitigation Policies on Manufacturing Industries

OpenAIRE

Morgenstern, Richard; Shih, Jhih-Shyang; Ho, Mun; Zhang, Xuehua

2002-01-01

Who will pay for new policies to reduce carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions in the United States? This paper considers a slice of the question by examining the near-term impact on domestic manufacturing industries of both upstream (economy-wide) and downstream (electric power industry only) carbon mitigation policies. Detailed Census data on the electricity use of four-digit manufacturing industries is combined with input-output information on interindustry purchases to paint a ...

Evaluating external costs of human health and environmental impacts using IAEA model SIMPACTS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bobric, Elena; Jelev, Adrian

2005-01-01

SIMPACTS (Simplified Approach for Estimating Impacts and External Costs of Electricity Generation) model developed at the International Atomic Energy Agency is a powerful and convenient tool for evaluating external costs induced by different energy sources. The model was developed for industrial countries and for developing countries as well where studies of alternatives of sustainable energy policies are conducted. The SIMPACTS allow the decision making factors involved in energy policy to have reasonable estimates of environment impacts and relating costs appealing to a rather low number of input parameters. The paper aims at analyzing by means of SIMPACTS the environmental impact produced by Cernavoda NPP operation in two cases: a) the impact of the Cernavoda NPP itself; b) the impact of an hypothetical coal based power plant of the same power level and located on the Cernavoda NPP site. The SIMPACTS modules AIRPACTS and NUCPACTS were applied to assess the impacts on human health, agricultural crops and building materials from exposure to routine atmospheric emissions and as well to quantify and value the adverse effects on human health due to routine atmospheric release of radionuclides from the NPP, via radioactive waste ground disposal or resulting from accidents in nuclear facility, respectively. The conclusion of this study based on SIMPACTS model application to assess the health effects and damage cost per year is that the Cernavoda NPP presents the lower health effects and damage cost comparing with power plants of other types

Modeling of global biomass policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gielen, Dolf; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

2003-01-01

This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies

Modeling of global biomass policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gielen, D.; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

2003-01-01

This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies. (Author)

Validity of information security policy models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joshua Onome Imoniana

Full Text Available Validity is concerned with establishing evidence for the use of a method to be used with a particular set of population. Thus, when we address the issue of application of security policy models, we are concerned with the implementation of a certain policy, taking into consideration the standards required, through attribution of scores to every item in the research instrument. En today's globalized economic scenarios, the implementation of information security policy, in an information technology environment, is a condition sine qua non for the strategic management process of any organization. Regarding this topic, various studies present evidences that, the responsibility for maintaining a policy rests primarily with the Chief Security Officer. The Chief Security Officer, in doing so, strives to enhance the updating of technologies, in order to meet all-inclusive business continuity planning policies. Therefore, for such policy to be effective, it has to be entirely embraced by the Chief Executive Officer. This study was developed with the purpose of validating specific theoretical models, whose designs were based on literature review, by sampling 10 of the Automobile Industries located in the ABC region of Metropolitan São Paulo City. This sampling was based on the representativeness of such industries, particularly with regards to each one's implementation of information technology in the region. The current study concludes, presenting evidence of the discriminating validity of four key dimensions of the security policy, being such: the Physical Security, the Logical Access Security, the Administrative Security, and the Legal & Environmental Security. On analyzing the Alpha of Crombach structure of these security items, results not only attest that the capacity of those industries to implement security policies is indisputable, but also, the items involved, homogeneously correlate to each other.

The impact of fiscal policy on government bond spreads in emerging markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ante Žigman

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Spreads on government bonds are a collective expression of differences in the level of development, risk, expected returns and other essential characteristics of states or regions the bond yields of which we wish to compare. At issue here is a collective expression of factors that work on the bond supply and demand side. These are for example the political environment (or political risks, expected return, economic risks, expected inflation, expected change in the exchange rate, solvency, way in which the bonds of a given state fi t into the portfolios of the major investors and so on. The paper identifies the influence of fiscal and non-fiscal factors on movements in spreads on government bonds in emerging markets. The possibility of isolating fiscal from non-fiscal influences on spreads and the identification of the nature of fiscal impacts can be of great importance for the conduct of fiscal policy. The results obtained can be used for an optimisation of fiscal policy so as to avoid negative impacts on yields (i.e. a growth in yields, that is, a growth in the costs of government borrowing. This paper enlarges the line of research by querying whether the structure of deficit financing (domestic or foreign has an impact on bond yields in emerging markets, and how this impact is reflected on the other determinants of fiscal policy.

The impact of the member states on EU environmental policy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Mikael Skou

1996-01-01

This paper explores the impact of the fourth enlargement (with Sweden, Austria and Finland) on the European Union's environmental policy. This is done by comparing the priorities and strategies of the newcomers with those of the former environmental pioneers (Germany, Netherlands and Denmark)....

Doublethink and scale mismatch polarize policies for an invasive tree

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, Caleb P.; Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Twidwell, Dirac

2018-01-01

Mismatches between invasive species management policies and ecological knowledge can lead to profound societal consequences. For this reason, natural resource agencies have adopted the scientifically-based density-impact invasive species curve to guide invasive species management. We use the density-impact model to evaluate how well management policies for a native invader (Juniperus virginiana) match scientific guidelines. Juniperus virginiana invasion is causing a sub-continental regime shift from grasslands to woodlands in central North America, and its impacts span collapses in endemic diversity, heightened wildfire risk, and crashes in grazing land profitability. We (1) use land cover data to identify the stage of Juniperus virginiana invasion for three ecoregions within Nebraska, USA, (2) determine the range of invasion stages at individual land parcel extents within each ecoregion based on the density-impact model, and (3) determine policy alignment and mismatches relative to the density-impact model in order to assess their potential to meet sustainability targets and avoid societal impacts as Juniperus virginiana abundance increases. We found that nearly all policies evidenced doublethink and policy-ecology mismatches, for instance, promoting spread of Juniperus virginiana regardless of invasion stage while simultaneously managing it as a native invader in the same ecoregion. Like other invasive species, theory and literature for this native invader indicate that the consequences of invasion are unlikely to be prevented if policies fail to prioritize management at incipient invasion stages. Theory suggests a more realistic approach would be to align policy with the stage of invasion at local and ecoregion management scales. There is a need for scientists, policy makers, and ecosystem managers to move past ideologies governing native versus non-native invader classification and toward a framework that accounts for the uniqueness of native species invasions

Doublethink and scale mismatch polarize policies for an invasive tree

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, Caleb P.; Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Twidwell, Dirac

2018-01-01

Mismatches between invasive species management policies and ecological knowledge can lead to profound societal consequences. For this reason, natural resource agencies have adopted the scientifically-based density-impact invasive species curve to guide invasive species management. We use the density-impact model to evaluate how well management policies for a native invader (Juniperus virginiana) match scientific guidelines. Juniperus virginiana invasion is causing a sub-continental regime shift from grasslands to woodlands in central North America, and its impacts span collapses in endemic diversity, heightened wildfire risk, and crashes in grazing land profitability. We (1) use land cover data to identify the stage of Juniperus virginiana invasion for three ecoregions within Nebraska, USA, (2) determine the range of invasion stages at individual land parcel extents within each ecoregion based on the density-impact model, and (3) determine policy alignment and mismatches relative to the density-impact model in order to assess their potential to meet sustainability targets and avoid societal impacts as Juniperus virginiana abundance increases. We found that nearly all policies evidenced doublethink and policy-ecology mismatches, for instance, promoting spread of Juniperus virginiana regardless of invasion stage while simultaneously managing it as a native invader in the same ecoregion. Like other invasive species, theory and literature for this native invader indicate that the consequences of invasion are unlikely to be prevented if policies fail to prioritize management at incipient invasion stages. Theory suggests a more realistic approach would be to align policy with the stage of invasion at local and ecoregion management scales. There is a need for scientists, policy makers, and ecosystem managers to move past ideologies governing native versus non-native invader classification and toward a framework that accounts for the uniqueness of native species

Modeling Impact of Urbanization in US Cities Using Simple Biosphere Model SiB2

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ping; Bounoua, Lahouari; Thome, Kurtis; Wolfe, Robert

2016-01-01

We combine Landsat- and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based products, as well as climate drivers from Phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) in a Simple Biosphere land surface model (SiB2) to assess the impact of urbanization in continental USA (excluding Alaska and Hawaii). More than 300 cities and their surrounding suburban and rural areas are defined in this study to characterize the impact of urbanization on surface climate including surface energy, carbon budget, and water balance. These analyses reveal an uneven impact of urbanization across the continent that should inform upon policy options for improving urban growth including heat mitigation and energy use, carbon sequestration and flood prevention.

The National Environmental Policy Act and DOE's programmatic environmental impact statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wisenbaker, W.E.

1991-01-01

The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) of 1969 requires that all agencies of the federal government prepare a detailed statement on any action significantly affecting the quality of the human environment. Such a statement must include the environmental impact of the proposed action, any adverse environmental effects that cannot be avoided should the proposed action be implemented, and alternatives to the proposed action. In requiring environmental statements, NEPA encourages viewing related actions collectively and looking at cumulative impacts. A programmatic environmental impact statement (PEIS) is a broad environmental analysis of a program or policy prepared when actions are connected and may have cumulative environmental impacts. The PEIS benefits include providing input into an agency's planning and decision making, assessing potential environmental consequences of a wide range of alternatives before options have been foreclosed, and allowing consideration of systemwide impacts of various alternatives early in the decision-making process. The US Department of Energy (DOE) will prepare its PEIS on Environmental Restoration and Waste Management program. The PEIS will consider programmatic issues and integrated approaches to the program; address national, program-wide alternatives rather than site-specific actions; and provide for subsequent NEPA documents of narrower scope to be prepared to address site-specific or project-specific actions

Climate policy impacts on the competitiveness of energy-intensive manufacturing sectors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bassi, Andrea M. [Millennium Institute, 2111 Wilson Blvd, Suite 700, Arlington, VA 22201 (United States); University of Bergen, Postboks 7800, 5020 Bergen (Norway); Yudken, Joel S. [High Road Strategies, LLC, 104 N. Columbus Street, Arlington, VA 22203 (United States); Ruth, Matthias [University of Maryland, 3139 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)

2009-08-15

This study examines the impacts of energy price changes resulting from different carbon-pricing policies on the competitiveness of selected US energy-intensive industries. It further examines possible industry responses, and identifies and provides a preliminary evaluation of potential opportunities to mitigate these impacts. The industry sectors investigated - steel, aluminum, chemicals and paper - are among the largest industrial users of fossil fuels in the US economy. The results of this examination show that climate policies that put a price on carbon could have substantial impacts on the competitiveness of US energy-intensive manufacturing sectors over the next two decades, if climate regulations are applied only in the United States, and no action is taken to invest in advanced low- and no-carbon technologies. The extent of these impacts will vary across industries, depending on their energy intensities, the mix of energy sources they rely on and how energy is used in production activities (heat and power, feedstock). Of relevance is also the speed and rigor with which industries adopt new technologies and retire (or replace) old ones. Other factors affecting these impacts include an industry's vulnerability to foreign imports and its ability to pass through cost increases to its customers in the face of international market competition. (author)

Climate policy impacts on the competitiveness of energy-intensive manufacturing sectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bassi, Andrea M.; Yudken, Joel S.; Ruth, Matthias

2009-01-01

This study examines the impacts of energy price changes resulting from different carbon-pricing policies on the competitiveness of selected US energy-intensive industries. It further examines possible industry responses, and identifies and provides a preliminary evaluation of potential opportunities to mitigate these impacts. The industry sectors investigated - steel, aluminum, chemicals and paper - are among the largest industrial users of fossil fuels in the US economy. The results of this examination show that climate policies that put a price on carbon could have substantial impacts on the competitiveness of US energy-intensive manufacturing sectors over the next two decades, if climate regulations are applied only in the United States, and no action is taken to invest in advanced low- and no-carbon technologies. The extent of these impacts will vary across industries, depending on their energy intensities, the mix of energy sources they rely on and how energy is used in production activities (heat and power, feedstock). Of relevance is also the speed and rigor with which industries adopt new technologies and retire (or replace) old ones. Other factors affecting these impacts include an industry's vulnerability to foreign imports and its ability to pass through cost increases to its customers in the face of international market competition.

Evaluation of Health Equity Impact of Structural Policies: Overview of Research Methods Used in the SOPHIE Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Kunst, Anton E

2017-07-01

This article briefly assesses the research methods that were applied in the SOPHIE project to evaluate the impact of structural policies on population health and health inequalities. The evaluation of structural policies is one of the key methodological challenges in today's public health. The experience in the SOPHIE project was that mixed methods are essential to identify, understand, and predict the health impact of structural policies. On the one hand, quantitative studies that included spatial comparisons or time trend analyses, preferably in a quasi-experimental design, showed that some structural policies were associated with improved population health and smaller health inequalities. On the other hand, qualitative studies, often inspired by realist approaches, were important to understand how these policies could have achieved the observed impact and why they would succeed in some settings but fail in others. This review ends with five recommendations for future studies that aim to evaluate, understand, and predict how health inequalities can be reduced through structural policies.

Impact of Different Carbon Policies on City Logistics Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yang Jianhua

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A programming model for a four-layer urban logistics distribution network is constructed and revised based on three types of carbon emissions policies such as Carbon tax, carbon emissions Cap, Carbon Trade. Effects of different policies on logistics costs and carbon emissions are analyzed based on a spatial Logistics Infrastructure layout of Beijing. Research findings are as follows: First, based on low-carbon policies, the logistics costs and carbon emissions can be changed by different modes of transport in a certain extent; second, only when carbon taxes and carbon trading prices are higher, carbon taxes and carbon trading policies can reduce carbon emissions while not significantly increase logistics costs at the same time, and more effectively achieve carbon reduction targets than use carbon cap policy.

Use and Impacts of Campbell Systematic Reviews on Policy, Practice, and Research

Science.gov (United States)

Maynard, Brandy R.; Dell, Nathaniel A.

2018-01-01

Aim: This study examines use and impacts of systematic reviews produced by the Campbell Collaboration's Social Welfare Coordinating Group (SWCG) on practice, policy, and research. Methods: A mixed-method research design was used to examine impacts of 52 systematic reviews published by the SWCG. We conducted author surveys and retrieved multiple…

Solving a Novel Inventory Location Model with Stochastic Constraints and (R,s,S Inventory Control Policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guillermo Cabrera

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We solve a novel inventory-location model with a stochastic capacity constraint based on a periodic inventory control (ILM-PR policy. The ILM-PR policy implies several changes with regard to other previous models proposed in the literature, which consider continuous review as their inventory policy. One of these changes is the inclusion of the undershoot concept, which has not been considered in previous ILM models in the literature. Based on our model, we are able to design a distribution network for a two-level supply chain, addressing both warehouse location and customer assignment decisions, whilst taking into consideration several aspects of inventory planning, in particular, evaluating the impact of the inventory control review period on the network configuration and system costs. Because the model is a very hard-to solve combinatorial nonlinear optimisation problem, we implemented two heuristics to solve it, namely, Tabu Search and Particle Swarm Optimisation. These approaches were tested over small instances in which they were able to find the optimal solution in just a few seconds. Because the model is a new one, a set of medium-size instances is provided that can be useful as a benchmark in future research. The heuristics showed a good convergence rate when applied to those instances. The results confirm that decision making over the inventory control policy has effects on the distribution network design.

Projected impacts to the production of outdoor recreation opportunities across US state park systems due to the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Jordan W.; Leung, Yu-Fai; Seekamp, Erin; Walden-Schreiner, Chelsey; Miller, Anna B.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A technical efficiency model identifies where state park systems can be improved. • The technical efficiency model is joined with output of CC policy simulations. • Shifts in operating expenditure under the CC mitigation policy are estimated. • Results reveal substantial variability across states. • Increasing technical efficiency is the best solution to adapt to CC policy impacts. - Abstract: Numerous empirical and simulation-based studies have documented or estimated variable impacts to the economic growth of nation states due to the adoption of domestic climate change mitigation policies. However, few studies have been able to empirically link projected changes in economic growth to the provision of public goods and services. In this research, we couple projected changes in economic growth to US states brought about by the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy with a longitudinal panel dataset detailing the production of outdoor recreation opportunities on lands managed in the public interest. Joining empirical data and simulation-based estimates allow us to better understand how the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy would affect the provision of public goods in the future. We first employ a technical efficiency model and metrics to provide decision makers with evidence of specific areas where operational efficiencies within the nation's state park systems can be improved. We then augment the empirical analysis with simulation-based changes in gross state product (GSP) to estimate changes to the states’ ability to provide outdoor recreation opportunities from 2014 to 2020; the results reveal substantial variability across states. Finally, we explore two potential solutions (increasing GSP or increasing technical efficiency) for addressing the negative impacts on the states’ park systems operating budgets brought about by the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy; the

Impact, regulation and health policy implications of physician migration in OECD countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simoens Steven

2004-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In the face of rising demand for medical services due to ageing populations, physician migration flows are increasingly affecting the supply of physicians in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and development (OECD countries. This paper offers an integrated perspective on the impact of physician migration on home and host countries and discusses international regulation and policy approaches governing physician migration. Methods Information about migration flows, international regulation and policies governing physician migration were derived from two questionnaires sent to OECD countries, a secondary analysis of EUROSTAT Labour Force Surveys, a literature review and official policy documents of OECD countries. Results OECD countries increasingly perceive immigration of foreign physicians as a way of sustaining their physician workforce. As a result, countries have entered into international agreements regulating physician migration, although their success has been limited due to the imposition of licensing requirements and the protection of vested interests by domestic physicians. OECD countries have therefore adopted specific policies designed to stimulate the immigration of foreign physicians, whilst minimising its negative impact on the home country. Measures promoting immigration have included international recruitment campaigns, less strict immigration requirements and arrangements that foster shared learning between health care systems. Policies restricting the societal costs of physician emigration from developing countries such as good practice guidelines and taxes on host countries have not yet produced their expected effect or in some cases have not been established at all. Conclusions Although OECD countries generally favour long-term policies of national self-sufficiency to sustain their physician workforce, such policies usually co-exist with short-term or medium-term policies to attract foreign physicians

Modelling climate change under no-policy and policy emissions pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wigley, T.M.L.

2003-01-01

Future emissions under the SRES scenarios are described as examples of no-climate-policy scenarios. The production of policy scenarios is guided by Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which requires stabilization of greenhouse-gas concentrations. It is suggested that the choice of stabilization targets should be governed by the need to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system, while the choice of the pathway towards a given target should be determined by some form of cost-benefit analysis. The WRE (Wigley, Richels and Edmonds) concentration profiles are given as examples of stabilization pathways, and an alternative 'overshoot' pathway is introduced. Probabilistic projections (as probability density functions - pdfs) for global-mean temperature under the SRES scenarios are given. The relative importance of different sources of uncertainty is determined by removing individual sources of uncertainty and examining the change in the output temperature pdf. Emissions and climate sensitivity uncertainties dominate, while carbon cycle, aerosol forcing and ocean mixing uncertainties are shown to be small. It is shown that large uncertainties remain even if the emissions are prescribed. Uncertainties in regional climate change are defined by comparing normalized changes (i.e., changes per 1C global-mean warming) across multiple models and using the inter-model standard deviation as an uncertainty metric. Global-mean temperature projections for the policy case are given using the WRE profiles. Different stabilization targets are considered, and the overshoot case for 550ppm stabilization is used to quantify the effects of pathway differences. It is shown that large emissions reductions (from the no-policy to the policy case) will lead to only relatively small reductions in warming over the next 100 years

Likely social impacts of proposed national-level policy initiatives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Piernot, C.A.; Rothweiler, M.A.; Levine, A.; Crews, R.

1981-03-01

The results are described of an investigation of likely social effects of enacting nine proposed national-level policy initiatives to accelerate development and use of solar energy. This study is part of the Technology Assessment of Solar Energy Systems (TASE) project supported by the US Department of Energy. The report presents general social impact information about the variety of ways in which the American people could be affected by enactment of these initiatives. It identifies the effects of each initiative on individuals, groups, organizations, communities, and society as a whole. In addition, it provides a framework for organizing a myriad of impact information into a set of conceptually exclusive impact categories. It illustrates that social impacts means effects on people as individuals, groups, organizations, and communities as well as on the infrastructure of society. Finally, it demonstrates the importance of specifying an audience of impact with a case example from the residential rental market.

The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

2003-01-01

Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence: results from the Michigan SimSmoke tobacco policy simulation model.

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, David T; Huang, An-Tsun; Havumaki, Joshua S; Meza, Rafael

2016-05-01

Michigan has implemented several of the tobacco control policies recommended by the World Health Organization MPOWER goals. We consider the effect of those policies and additional policies consistent with MPOWER goals on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs). The SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model is used to examine the effect of past policies and a set of additional policies to meet the MPOWER goals. The model is adapted to Michigan using state population, smoking, and policy data starting in 1993. SADs are estimated using standard attribution methods. Upon validating the model, SimSmoke is used to distinguish the effect of policies implemented since 1993 against a counterfactual with policies kept at their 1993 levels. The model is then used to project the effect of implementing stronger policies beginning in 2014. SimSmoke predicts smoking prevalence accurately between 1993 and 2010. Since 1993, a relative reduction in smoking rates of 22 % by 2013 and of 30 % by 2054 can be attributed to tobacco control policies. Of the 22 % reduction, 44 % is due to taxes, 28 % to smoke-free air laws, 26 % to cessation treatment policies, and 2 % to youth access. Moreover, 234,000 SADs are projected to be averted by 2054. With additional policies consistent with MPOWER goals, the model projects that, by 2054, smoking prevalence can be further reduced by 17 % with 80,000 deaths averted relative to the absence of those policies. Michigan SimSmoke shows that tobacco control policies, including cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, and cessation treatment policies, have substantially reduced smoking and SADs. Higher taxes, strong mass media campaigns, and cessation treatment policies would further reduce smoking prevalence and SADs.

Health care models guiding mental health policy in Kenya 1965 - 1997

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jenkins Rachel

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Mental health policy is needed to set the strategy and direction for the provision of mental health services in a country. Policy formulation does not occur in a vacuum, however, but is influenced by local and international factors in the health sector and other sectors. Methods This study was carried out in 1997 to examine the evolution of mental health policy in Kenya between 1965 and 1997 in the context of changing international concepts of health and development. Qualitative content analysis of policy documents was combined with interviews of key policy makers. Results The study showed that during the period 1965-1997 the generic health policy in Kenya changed from one based on the Medical Model in the 1960s and 1970s to one based on the Primary Health Care Model in the late 1970s and the 1980s and finally to one based on the Market Model of health care in the 1990s. The mental health policy, on the other hand, evolved from one based on the Medical Model in the 1960s to one based on the Primary Health Care Model in the 1990s, but did not embrace the Market Model of health care. This resulted in a situation in the 1990s where the mental health policy was rooted in a different conceptual model from that of the generic health policy under which it was supposed to be implemented. This "Model Muddlement" may have impeded the implementation of the mental health policy in Kenya. Conclusions Integration of the national mental health policy with the general health policy and other sector policies would be appropriate and is now underway.

The impact of monetary policy on financing of Czech firms

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Aliyev, Ruslan; Hájková, D.; Kubicová, I.

2015-01-01

Roč. 65, č. 6 (2015), s. 455-476 ISSN 0015-1920 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : monetary policy transmission * broad credit view * external finance Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.449, year: 2015 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/mag/article/show/id/1343

Assessing the Impact of Current National Policies to Reduce Salt ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Assessing the Impact of Current National Policies to Reduce Salt and Trans Fatty Acids in Argentina ... The Codex Alimentarius, or international food safety standards, will also decrease trans fatty acids (TFA) ... Researchers will develop a strategy to share results with policymakers and other stakeholders. ... Journal articles.

The Impact of Policy and Legislation on Maori Children with Special Needs in Aotearoa/New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Fortune, Kiri

2013-01-01

The purpose of this article is to review literature related to the impact of policy and legislation on Maori children with special needs. The historical perceptions of disability for Maori will be discussed and the impacts of western influences and policy will be reviewed. The article investigates relevant studies and literature, both national and…

The Relevance of Using Mathematical Models in Macroeconomic Policies Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nora Mihail

2006-11-01

Full Text Available The article presents a look of the principal’s mathematical models – starting with Theil, Hansen and Tinbergen work – and their results used to analysis and design macroeconomic policies. In modeling field changes are very fast in theoretical aspects of modeling the many problems of macroeconomic policies and in using in practice the different political models elaboration. The article points out the problems of static and dynamic theory used in macro-policies modeling.

The Relevance of Using Mathematical Models in Macroeconomic Policies Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nora Mihail

2006-09-01

Full Text Available The article presents a look of the principal’s mathematical models – starting with Theil, Hansen and Tinbergen work – and their results used to analysis and design macroeconomic policies. In modeling field changes are very fast in theoretical aspects of modeling the many problems of macroeconomic policies and in using in practice the different political models elaboration. The article points out the problems of static and dynamic theory used in macro-policies modeling.

Impacts of Sugar Import Policy on Sugar Production in Indonesia

OpenAIRE

Suryantoro, Agustinus; Susilo, Albertus Magnus; Supriyono, Supriyono

2013-01-01

Production of sugar unful lled consumption of Indonesia society. The lack of consumption and productionhave ful lled by import. Assumption national consumption 2,7 million ton, Indonesia will import sugar in 2013predicted about 300.000 ton (Tempo.co, August, 21, 2012).The aims in general of this research are to understand the impact of sugar import policy on sugar production.Especially (1) to understand the factors that in uence sugar import price, (2) to understand impact of sugarimport pric...

Assessing the Impact of U.S. Food Assistance Delivery Policies on Child Mortality in Northern Kenya.

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Alex Nikulkov

Full Text Available The U.S. is the main country in the world that delivers its food assistance primarily via transoceanic shipments of commodity-based in-kind food. This approach is costlier and less timely than cash-based assistance, which includes cash transfers, food vouchers, and local and regional procurement, where food is bought in or nearby the recipient country. The U.S.'s approach is exacerbated by a requirement that half of its transoceanic food shipments need to be sent on U.S.-flag vessels. We estimate the effect of these U.S. food assistance distribution policies on child mortality in northern Kenya by formulating and optimizing a supply chain model. In our model, monthly orders of transoceanic shipments and cash-based interventions are chosen to minimize child mortality subject to an annual budget constraint and to policy constraints on the allowable proportions of cash-based interventions and non-US-flag shipments. By varying the restrictiveness of these policy constraints, we assess the impact of possible changes in U.S. food aid policies on child mortality. The model includes an existing regression model that uses household survey data and geospatial data to forecast the mean mid-upper-arm circumference Z scores among children in a community, and allows food assistance to increase Z scores, and Z scores to influence mortality rates. We find that cash-based interventions are a much more powerful policy lever than the U.S.-flag vessel requirement: switching to cash-based interventions reduces child mortality from 4.4% to 3.7% (a 16.2% relative reduction in our model, whereas eliminating the U.S.-flag vessel restriction without increasing the use of cash-based interventions generates a relative reduction in child mortality of only 1.1%. The great majority of the gains achieved by cash-based interventions are due to their reduced cost, not their reduced delivery lead times; i.e., the reduction of shipping expenses allows for more food to be delivered

Assessing the Impact of U.S. Food Assistance Delivery Policies on Child Mortality in Northern Kenya.

Science.gov (United States)

Nikulkov, Alex; Barrett, Christopher B; Mude, Andrew G; Wein, Lawrence M

2016-01-01

The U.S. is the main country in the world that delivers its food assistance primarily via transoceanic shipments of commodity-based in-kind food. This approach is costlier and less timely than cash-based assistance, which includes cash transfers, food vouchers, and local and regional procurement, where food is bought in or nearby the recipient country. The U.S.'s approach is exacerbated by a requirement that half of its transoceanic food shipments need to be sent on U.S.-flag vessels. We estimate the effect of these U.S. food assistance distribution policies on child mortality in northern Kenya by formulating and optimizing a supply chain model. In our model, monthly orders of transoceanic shipments and cash-based interventions are chosen to minimize child mortality subject to an annual budget constraint and to policy constraints on the allowable proportions of cash-based interventions and non-US-flag shipments. By varying the restrictiveness of these policy constraints, we assess the impact of possible changes in U.S. food aid policies on child mortality. The model includes an existing regression model that uses household survey data and geospatial data to forecast the mean mid-upper-arm circumference Z scores among children in a community, and allows food assistance to increase Z scores, and Z scores to influence mortality rates. We find that cash-based interventions are a much more powerful policy lever than the U.S.-flag vessel requirement: switching to cash-based interventions reduces child mortality from 4.4% to 3.7% (a 16.2% relative reduction) in our model, whereas eliminating the U.S.-flag vessel restriction without increasing the use of cash-based interventions generates a relative reduction in child mortality of only 1.1%. The great majority of the gains achieved by cash-based interventions are due to their reduced cost, not their reduced delivery lead times; i.e., the reduction of shipping expenses allows for more food to be delivered, which reduces

The inherent dangers of using computable general equilibrium models as a single integrated modelling framework for sustainability impact assessment. A critical note on Boehringer and Loeschel (2006)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scrieciu, S. Serban

2007-01-01

The search for methods of assessment that best evaluate and integrate the trade-offs and interactions between the economic, environmental and social components of development has been receiving a new impetus due to the requirement that sustainability concerns be incorporated into the policy formulation process. A paper forthcoming in Ecological Economics (Boehringer, C., Loeschel, A., in press. Computable general equilibrium models for sustainability impact assessment: status quo and prospects, Ecological Economics.) claims that Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models may potentially represent the much needed 'back-bone' tool to carry out reliable integrated quantitative Sustainability Impact Assessments (SIAs). While acknowledging the usefulness of CGE models for some dimensions of SIA, this commentary questions the legitimacy of employing this particular economic modelling tool as a single integrating modelling framework for a comprehensive evaluation of the multi-dimensional, dynamic and complex interactions between policy and sustainability. It discusses several inherent dangers associated with the advocated prospects for the CGE modelling approach to contribute to comprehensive and reliable sustainability impact assessments. The paper warns that this reductionist viewpoint may seriously infringe upon the basic values underpinning the SIA process, namely a transparent, heterogeneous, balanced, inter-disciplinary, consultative and participatory take to policy evaluation and building of the evidence-base. (author)

Evaluating the Impacts of School Nutrition and Physical Activity Policies on Child Health. PRGS Dissertation

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandes, Meenakshi Maria

2010-01-01

This dissertation evaluates the impact of elementary school policies on child health behaviors and obesity in the United States. Two chapters address nutrition policies, two chapters address physical activity policies, and a final chapter estimates the health care cost savings associated with a decline in childhood obesity prevalence. The use of…

The Impact of Irish Policy and Legislation on How Adults with Learning Disabilities Make Choices

Science.gov (United States)

Carey, Eileen; Griffiths, Colin

2016-01-01

This paper reflects the impact of policy and legislation in the context of how adults with learning disabilities make choices. Following an overview of policies which have improved choice for people with learning disability in the United Kingdom, this paper reviews "choice" in current Irish policy and legislation. This paper, while…

A Model for Assessing the Gender Aspect in Economic Policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ona Rakauskienė

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of research is to develop a conceptual model for assessing the impact of the gender aspect on economic policy at macro– and microeconomic levels. The research methodology is based on analysing scientific approaches to the gender aspect in economics and gender–responsive budgeting as well as determining the impact of the gender aspect on GDP, foreign trade, the state budget and the labour market. First, the major findings encompass the main idea of a conceptual model proposing that a socio–economic picture of society can be accepted as completed only when, alongside public and private sectors, includes the care/reproductive sector that is dominated by women and creating added value in the form of educated human resources; second, macroeconomics is not neutral in terms of gender equality. Gender asymmetry is manifested not only at the level of microeconomics (labour market and business but also at the level of macroeconomics (GDP, the state budget and foreign trade, which has a negative impact on economic growth and state budget revenues. In this regard, economic decisions, according to the principles of gender equality and in order to achieve gender equality in economics, must be made, as the gender aspect has to be also implemented at the macroeconomic level.

Policy impact of the Indonesian Central Bank certificate related on loan interest rate to the demand growth of property

Science.gov (United States)

Wirjodirdjo, B.; Asjari, H. Y.

2018-04-01

The Indonesian economic indicators shown a positive progress in the last three years, Foreign exchange reserves position of the end of March 2017 stood at US 121.8 billion higher than the position of the end of 2015 amounted to US 105.9 billion of the end of 2015. This reserve would ensure the resilience and maintaining sustainable Indonesian economic growth in the future. Although Indonesia’s foreign exchange is better, the structure of expenditure in the country is still less than ideal due the proportion of spending of consumer goods is far greater than the capital goods and tend to be unproductive spending. This needs to be regulated so that in the long term does not cause balance of payments deficit. Therefore, Indonesian Central Bank took a policy to raise interest rates for retail banks from 6% to 7.25% per annum gradually up to present. Policies relating to the interest rates on loans are intended to reduce the proportion of debt financing of consumer goods, however, these policies have implications to various economic sectors and one of those is property sector. A lot of research has been conducted related the impact of loan interest to the property sector but most of it is still in partial related to the ability the people to buy. However, this research has tried to see the implication of the macro Economic Policy of Indonesian Central Bank to the property sector as a systemic problem. This paper is going to present the study on the effects of these policies on the property sector, especially residence house. To obtain a comprehensive analysis and capture the relationship between interest rate policies and their impacts to the property sector, in this study the model developed and simulated using system dynamic methodology as an approach. Various scenarios are applied to the model to get an accurate information about how and when the effectiveness of the policy related to the property sector can be enforced. The result of this study can be delivered to

The Impacts of Internationalization on Quality Assurance Policy: A Comparative Study of Finland and Taiwan

OpenAIRE

LIU, PO-YUN

2008-01-01

Internationalization and quality assurance have become the central considerations of higher education development currently. The aim of this research is to explore and compare the impacts of internationalization on quality assurance policy in Finland and Taiwan. To achieve this aim, the general impacts of internationalization on quality assurance policy have been discussed first. Next, the empirical research of Finland and Taiwan are conducted by qualitative interviews of higher education pol...