WorldWideScience

Sample records for policy impact model

  1. Parameter uncertainty in CGE Modeling of the environmental impacts of economic policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abler, D.G.; Shortle, J.S. [Agricultural Economics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (United States); Rodriguez, A.G. [University of Costa Rica, San Jose (Costa Rica)

    1999-07-01

    This study explores the role of parameter uncertainty in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling of the environmental impacts of macroeconomic and sectoral policies, using Costa Rica as a case for study. A CGE model is constructed which includes eight environmental indicators covering deforestation, pesticides, overfishing, hazardous wastes, inorganic wastes, organic wastes, greenhouse gases, and air pollution. The parameters are treated as random variables drawn from prespecified distributions. Evaluation of each policy option consists of a Monte Carlo experiment. The impacts of the policy options on the environmental indicators are relatively robust to different parameter values, in spite of the wide range of parameter values employed. 33 refs.

  2. Parameter uncertainty in CGE Modeling of the environmental impacts of economic policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abler, D.G.; Shortle, J.S.; Rodriguez, A.G.

    1999-01-01

    This study explores the role of parameter uncertainty in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling of the environmental impacts of macroeconomic and sectoral policies, using Costa Rica as a case for study. A CGE model is constructed which includes eight environmental indicators covering deforestation, pesticides, overfishing, hazardous wastes, inorganic wastes, organic wastes, greenhouse gases, and air pollution. The parameters are treated as random variables drawn from prespecified distributions. Evaluation of each policy option consists of a Monte Carlo experiment. The impacts of the policy options on the environmental indicators are relatively robust to different parameter values, in spite of the wide range of parameter values employed. 33 refs

  3. An Economic Model of Brazil’s Ethanol-Sugar Markets and Impacts of Fuel Policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drabik, D.; Gorter, de H.; Just, D.R.; Timilsina, G.R.

    2014-01-01

    We develop an economic model of flex plants, export demands and two domestic fuel demand curves: E25, a 25 percent blend of ethanol with gasoline consumed by conventional cars, and E100, ethanol consumed only by flex cars. This allows us to analyze the market impacts of specific policies, namely the

  4. The Impact of State Legislation and Model Policies on Bullying in Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry, Amanda

    2018-01-01

    Background: The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of the coverage of state legislation and the expansiveness ratings of state model policies on the state-level prevalence of bullying in schools. Methods: The state-level prevalence of bullying in schools was based on cross-sectional data from the 2013 High School Youth Risk Behavior…

  5. The Impact of State Legislation and Model Policies on Bullying in Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry, Amanda

    2018-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of the coverage of state legislation and the expansiveness ratings of state model policies on the state-level prevalence of bullying in schools. The state-level prevalence of bullying in schools was based on cross-sectional data from the 2013 High School Youth Risk Behavior Survey. Multiple regression was conducted to determine whether the coverage of state legislation and the expansiveness rating of a state model policy affected the state-level prevalence of bullying in schools. The purpose and definition category of components in state legislation and the expansiveness rating of a state model policy were statistically significant predictors of the state-level prevalence of bullying in schools. The other 3 categories of components in state legislation-District Policy Development and Review, District Policy Components, and Additional Components-were not statistically significant predictors in the model. Extensive coverage in the purpose and definition category of components in state legislation and a high expansiveness rating of a state model policy may be important in efforts to reduce bullying in schools. Improving these areas may reduce the state-level prevalence of bullying in schools. © 2018, American School Health Association.

  6. Multi-agent modeling for water policy impact assessment: a road map

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Mazzega

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Water policies have a great impact upon different types of resources (water, land and soil resources; infrastructure and facilities; financial resources; environmental knowledge and information; etc.. They involve many individual or collective actors (users, managers, public or private companies, associations, etc. as well as rules and norms of behavior that these actors are the recipients or agents. Complex systems, if any, these policies have several kinds of effects, expected and unexpected, direct and indirect effects, societal, economic, environmental and eco-systemic. The current development of multi-agent platforms opens up a new area for the definition, design, implementation and monitoring of water management by producing ex ante simulations of the impact of measures that promote water public policies and of the likely evolution of the socio-hydrosystem concerned. Here we give a quick overview of these new opportunities of water policy modeling and impact assessment. We summarize the steps of the modeling process and present the main ingredients entering in the composition of a platform dedicated to impact simulations. We also argue the interest of building water scenarios and producing useful indicators for decision-making regarding the use, distribution and management of water resources at the basin-scale.

  7. Alternative policy impacts on US GHG emissions and energy security: A hybrid modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarica, Kemal; Tyner, Wallace E.

    2013-01-01

    This study addresses the possible impacts of energy and climate policies, namely corporate average fleet efficiency (CAFE) standard, renewable fuel standard (RFS) and clean energy standard (CES), and an economy wide equivalent carbon tax on GHG emissions in the US to the year 2045. Bottom–up and top–down modeling approaches find widespread use in energy economic modeling and policy analysis, in which they differ mainly with respect to the emphasis placed on technology of the energy system and/or the comprehensiveness of endogenous market adjustments. For this study, we use a hybrid energy modeling approach, MARKAL–Macro, that combines the characteristics of two divergent approaches, in order to investigate and quantify the cost of climate policies for the US and an equivalent carbon tax. The approach incorporates Macro-economic feedbacks through a single sector neoclassical growth model while maintaining sectoral and technological detail of the bottom–up optimization framework with endogenous aggregated energy demand. Our analysis is done for two important objectives of the US energy policy: GHG reduction and increased energy security. Our results suggest that the emission tax achieves results quite similar to the CES policy but very different results in the transportation sector. The CAFE standard and RFS are more expensive than a carbon tax for emission reductions. However, the CAFE standard and RFS are much more efficient at achieving crude oil import reductions. The GDP losses are 2.0% and 1.2% relative to the base case for the policy case and carbon tax. That difference may be perceived as being small given the increased energy security gained from the CAFE and RFS policy measures and the uncertainty inherent in this type of analysis. - Highlights: • Evaluates US impacts of three energy/climate policies and a carbon tax (CT) • Analysis done with bottom–up MARKAL model coupled with a macro model • Electricity clean energy standard very close to

  8. Geographic Modeling to Quantify the Impact of Primary and Comprehensive Stroke Center Destination Policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullen, Michael T; Pajerowski, William; Messé, Steven R; Mechem, C Crawford; Jia, Judy; Abboud, Michael; David, Guy; Carr, Brendan G; Band, Roger

    2018-02-28

    We evaluated the impact of a primary stroke center (PSC) destination policy in a major metropolitan city and used geographic modeling to evaluate expected changes for a comprehensive stroke center policy. We identified suspected stroke emergency medical services encounters from 1/1/2004 to 12/31/2013 in Philadelphia, PA. Transport times were compared before and after initiation of a PSC destination policy on 10/3/2011. Geographic modeling estimated the impact of bypassing the closest hospital for the closest PSC and for the closest comprehensive stroke center. There were 2 326 943 emergency medical services runs during the study period, of which 15 099 had a provider diagnosis of stroke. Bypassing the closest hospital for a PSC was common before the official policy and increased steadily over time. Geographic modeling suggested that bypassing the closest hospital in favor of the closest PSC adds a median of 3.1 minutes to transport time. Bypassing to the closest comprehensive stroke center would add a median of 8.3 minutes. Within a large metropolitan area, the time cost of routing patients preferentially to PSCs and comprehensive stroke centers is low. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

  9. Current use of impact models for agri-environment schemes and potential for improvements of policy design and assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Primdahl, Jorgen; Vesterager, Jens Peter; Finn, John A.

    2010-01-01

    Agri-Environment Schemes (AES) to maintain or promote environmentally-friendly farming practices were implemented on about 25% of all agricultural land in the EU by 2002. This article analyses and discusses the actual and potential use of impact models in supporting the design, implementation...... and evaluation of AES. Impact models identify and establish the causal relationships between policy objectives and policy outcomes. We review and discuss the role of impact models at different stages in the AES policy process, and present results from a survey of impact models underlying 60 agri-environmental...... schemes in seven EU member states. We distinguished among three categories of impact models (quantitative, qualitative or common sense), depending on the degree of evidence in the formal scheme description, additional documents, or key person interviews. The categories of impact models used mainly...

  10. Estimating impacts of climate change policy on land use: an agent-based modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Fraser J; Daigneault, Adam J

    2015-01-01

    Agriculture is important to New Zealand's economy. Like other primary producers, New Zealand strives to increase agricultural output while maintaining environmental integrity. Utilising modelling to explore the economic, environmental and land use impacts of policy is critical to understand the likely effects on the sector. Key deficiencies within existing land use and land cover change models are the lack of heterogeneity in farmers and their behaviour, the role that social networks play in information transfer, and the abstraction of the global and regional economic aspects within local-scale approaches. To resolve these issues we developed the Agent-based Rural Land Use New Zealand model. The model utilises a partial equilibrium economic model and an agent-based decision-making framework to explore how the cumulative effects of individual farmer's decisions affect farm conversion and the resulting land use at a catchment scale. The model is intended to assist in the development of policy to shape agricultural land use intensification in New Zealand. We illustrate the model, by modelling the impact of a greenhouse gas price on farm-level land use, net revenue, and environmental indicators such as nutrient losses and soil erosion for key enterprises in the Hurunui and Waiau catchments of North Canterbury in New Zealand. Key results from the model show that farm net revenue is estimated to increase over time regardless of the greenhouse gas price. Net greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to decline over time, even under a no GHG price baseline, due to an expansion of forestry on low productivity land. Higher GHG prices provide a greater net reduction of emissions. While social and geographic network effects have minimal impact on net revenue and environmental outputs for the catchment, they do have an effect on the spatial arrangement of land use and in particular the clustering of enterprises.

  11. Evaluating the impact of strategic personnel policies using a MILP model: The public university case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torre, R. de la; Lusa, A.; Mateo, M.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The main purpose of the paper is to evaluate the impact of diverse personnel policies around personnel promotion in the design of the strategic staff plan for a public university. The strategic staff planning consists in the determination of the size and composition of the workforce for an organization. Design/methodology/approach: The staff planning is solved using a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model. The MILP model represents the organizational structure of the university, the personnel categories and capacity decisions, the demand requirements, the required service level and budget restrictions. All these aspects are translated into a set of data, as well as the parameters and constraints building up the mathematical model for optimization. The required data for the model is adopted from a Spanish public university. Findings: The development of appropriate policies for personnel promotion can effectively reduce the number of dismissals while proposing a transition towards different preferable workforce structures in the university. Research limitations/implications: The long term staff plan for the university is solved by the MILP model considering a time horizon of 8 years. For this time horizon, the required input data is derived from current data of the university. Different scenarios are proposed considering different temporal trends for input data, such as in demand and admissible promotional ratios for workers. Originality/value: The literature review reports a lack of formalized procedures for staff planning in universities taking into account, at the same time, the regulations on hiring, dismissals, promotions and the workforce heterogeneity, all considered to optimize workforce size and composition addressing not only an economic criteria, but also the required workforce expertise and the quality in the service offered. This paper adopts a formalized procedure developed by the authors in previous works, and exploits it to assess the

  12. Impact of policies regulating foreign physician migration to Switzerland: a modelling case study in anaesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haller, Guy; Combescure, Christophe; Mamie, Chantal; Zoccatelli, Davide; Clergue, François

    2015-05-22

    Several countries have developed policies that restrict or limit duration of stay, clinical privileges or the number of residency permits allocated to migrating physicians. Switzerland is currently preparing a new law limiting overall foreign immigration. The impact of such restrictive policies is currently unknown. In a case study of anaesthesia care in Switzerland we modelled, trends in the size of physicians' workforce until 2024, following the implementation of a strict quota policy for foreign medical trainees. We developed a computer-based Markov model with Monte-Carlo simulations to project, in the context of a strict quota policy for foreign trainees, supply and demand for anaesthesia positions until 2024. We used data from a cross-sectional study performed in the French- and Italian-speaking cantons of Switzerland and the Health dataset from the OECD. With 8 to 12 (95% CI 4-20) anaesthetists retiring per year, the implementation of strict quotas of foreign graduates would result in a 38% decrease in the number of anaesthetists in intermediary (senior registrars) positions by 2024. This decrease would be particularly important in district hospitals where nearly half (49%) of the non-Swiss anaesthetists are practising. Swiss graduates are unlikely to balance the shortage. Despite efforts by Swiss universities to increase the number of medical graduates, their number has dropped from 10.5 to 9.7/100 000 inhabitants between 2000 and 2012, due to the growth of the population. This case study in Latin Switzerland shows that a restrictive policy limiting foreign immigration of trainees would result in a major deficit in the number of anaesthetists available to meet population needs. These aspects should be carefully considered when countries develop restrictions and limitations of foreign immigration.

  13. Current use of impact models for agri-environment schemes and potential for improvements of policy design and assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Primdahl, Jørgen; Vesterager, Jens Peter; Finn, John A; Vlahos, George; Kristensen, Lone; Vejre, Henrik

    2010-06-01

    Agri-Environment Schemes (AES) to maintain or promote environmentally-friendly farming practices were implemented on about 25% of all agricultural land in the EU by 2002. This article analyses and discusses the actual and potential use of impact models in supporting the design, implementation and evaluation of AES. Impact models identify and establish the causal relationships between policy objectives and policy outcomes. We review and discuss the role of impact models at different stages in the AES policy process, and present results from a survey of impact models underlying 60 agri-environmental schemes in seven EU member states. We distinguished among three categories of impact models (quantitative, qualitative or common sense), depending on the degree of evidence in the formal scheme description, additional documents, or key person interviews. The categories of impact models used mainly depended on whether scheme objectives were related to natural resources, biodiversity or landscape. A higher proportion of schemes dealing with natural resources (primarily water) were based on quantitative impact models, compared to those concerned with biodiversity or landscape. Schemes explicitly targeted either on particular parts of individual farms or specific areas tended to be based more on quantitative impact models compared to whole-farm schemes and broad, horizontal schemes. We conclude that increased and better use of impact models has significant potential to improve efficiency and effectiveness of AES. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. The Impact of Environmental Policy on Foreign Trade: Tobey revisited with a Bilateral Flow Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beers, van Cees; Bergh, van den Jeroen C.J.M.

    2000-01-01

    Whereas theoretical analyses of trade and environment indicate thatrelatively strict environmental policies can have a strong impact on foreign trade, empirical studies present mixed results. This study presents new empirical results that tie together two previous empirical studies employing a

  15. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2010 - part 1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - integrated assessment modeling and valuation.

  16. IMPACT: a generic tool for modelling and simulating public health policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ainsworth, J D; Carruthers, E; Couch, P; Green, N; O'Flaherty, M; Sperrin, M; Williams, R; Asghar, Z; Capewell, S; Buchan, I E

    2011-01-01

    Populations are under-served by local health policies and management of resources. This partly reflects a lack of realistically complex models to enable appraisal of a wide range of potential options. Rising computing power coupled with advances in machine learning and healthcare information now enables such models to be constructed and executed. However, such models are not generally accessible to public health practitioners who often lack the requisite technical knowledge or skills. To design and develop a system for creating, executing and analysing the results of simulated public health and healthcare policy interventions, in ways that are accessible and usable by modellers and policy-makers. The system requirements were captured and analysed in parallel with the statistical method development for the simulation engine. From the resulting software requirement specification the system architecture was designed, implemented and tested. A model for Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) was created and validated against empirical data. The system was successfully used to create and validate the CHD model. The initial validation results show concordance between the simulation results and the empirical data. We have demonstrated the ability to connect health policy-modellers and policy-makers in a unified system, thereby making population health models easier to share, maintain, reuse and deploy.

  17. A harmonized calculation model for transforming EU bottom-up energy efficiency indicators into empirical estimates of policy impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horowitz, Marvin J.; Bertoldi, Paolo

    2015-01-01

    This study is an impact analysis of European Union (EU) energy efficiency policy that employs both top-down energy consumption data and bottom-up energy efficiency statistics or indicators. As such, it may be considered a contribution to the effort called for in the EU's 2006 Energy Services Directive (ESD) to develop a harmonized calculation model. Although this study does not estimate the realized savings from individual policy measures, it does provide estimates of realized energy savings for energy efficiency policy measures in aggregate. Using fixed effects panel models, the annual cumulative savings in 2011 of combined household and manufacturing sector electricity and natural gas usage attributed to EU energy efficiency policies since 2000 is estimated to be 1136 PJ; the savings attributed to energy efficiency policies since 2006 is estimated to be 807 PJ, or the equivalent of 5.6% of 2011 EU energy consumption. As well as its contribution to energy efficiency policy analysis, this study adds to the development of methods that can improve the quality of information provided by standardized energy efficiency and sustainable resource indexes. - Highlights: • Impact analysis of European Union energy efficiency policy. • Harmonization of top-down energy consumption and bottom-up energy efficiency indicators. • Fixed effects models for Member States for household and manufacturing sectors and combined electricity and natural gas usage. • EU energy efficiency policies since 2000 are estimated to have saved 1136 Petajoules. • Energy savings attributed to energy efficiency policies since 2006 are 5.6 percent of 2011 combined electricity and natural gas usage.

  18. The research on the impact of energy-environment policy on regional development—based on CGE model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Y. M.

    2017-01-01

    In this study, we will focus on study the impact of energy and environment regulatory on the inter-regional coordinated development from the regional level. Making use of multi-regional energy-economy-environmental computable general equilibrium(CGE) model, we will analysis the effect of regional energy regulation in the future. We will research the impact of the carbon emissions trading and other environmental policy on regional economic development and industrial structure. The results show that the regulation of energy and environment can promote regional industry to upgrade and different policies of energy and environmental are needed to implement to mitigate the negative impact on the economy of different regions. In the paper, we expand the traditional regional energy-environmental CGE model tools for providing new quantitative methods to study regional energy and environmental problems in China.

  19. Modeling the potential impacts of different radon policies for the U.S. housing stock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, M.D.; Ritchie, I.M.

    1995-01-01

    According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other public health agencies in the United States, radon may be the leading cause (along with passive smoking) of lung cancer deaths among nonsmokers. Radon is estimated to be the second leading cause of lung cancer death in smokers behind smoking-related lung cancer. EPA estimates that 7,000 to 30,000 lung cancer deaths each year are due to radon exposure. (It is implied that radon-related lung cancer deaths can be prevented by reducing radon levels below EPA's guideline levels). Current EPA radon policy is based on a strategy of education, the transfer of testing and remediation technologies to the public and private sectors, and recently proposed radon-resistant construction standards for new homes. This paper models the effectiveness of current proposed, and alternative policies for reducing radon risks in U.S. residential construction. The results of our analysis suggest that EPS's projections of 2,200 'lives saved annually' as a result of its current action level of 4 pCi/l will not be achieved with its current policy in the near future. Overall, the response of radon-related mortality to most policy options is delayed and flat due in part to the large number of houses with low radon levels and the long latency period between radon exposure and the development of cancer. The modeling results suggest that more aggressive smoking reduction programs may yield greater benefits in overall lung cancer mortality (but not reduced radon exposure) than most radon-related policies. (au)

  20. A comparison of Capri and SEAMLESS-IFas Integrated Modelling Systems, Chapter 11 in Environmental and Agricultural Modelling: Integrated Approaches for Policy Impact Assessement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Britz, W.; Perez Dominguez, I.; Heckelei, T.

    2010-01-01

    SEAMLESS-IF and CAPRI are both integrated agricultural modelling systems for policy impact assessment at EU level, linking model components across scales and between the economic and bio-physical domains. However, the overall design, focus and representation of agricultural sub-systems vary between

  1. Modelling the relationship between antiretroviral treatment and HIV prevention: limitations of the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model in a changing policy environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nattrass, Nicoli

    2007-08-01

    This paper shows how two publicly available epidemiological modelling packages, namely the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model and the ASSA2003 AIDS and Demographic Model, predict very different impacts from rolling out highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) on new HIV infections. Using South Africa as a case study, it shows that the ASSA2003 model predicts a significant drop in new HIV infections as HAART is rolled out, whereas the Spectrum model assumes that HAART does not have a preventative impact (and in fact generates a small increase in new HIV infections). Users will thus draw different conclusions about the public health benefits of HAART depending on which modelling package they use. Despite being presented as a policy-oriented modelling tool capable of exploring 'what if' questions about the impact of different policy choices, the Spectrum model is illequipped to do so with regard to a HAART rollout. Unlike Spectrum, ASSA2003 is more flexible and its assumptions are clear. Better modelling and more information (including about the relationship between HAART and sexual risk behaviour) is required to develop appropriate public-policy modelling for the HAART era.

  2. Preferences for distributional impacts of climate policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svenningsen, Lea Skræp; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    What role do people think distributional aspects should play in design of climate policy? The literature assessing climate policies has shown that assumptions regarding peoples’ distributional preferences for climate change policy impacts are central for policy assessment, but empirical evidence...... for such preferences is lacking. We design a discrete choice experiment that varies how climate policies affect the income of people living in the future in three geographical regions. The experiment is implemented on a representative sample of the Danish population and preferences are modelled in a latent class model....... Our results show that i) a small majority of Danes expresses preferences for climate policies consistent with inequity aversion, ii) a group expresses preferences resembling simple warm glow, while iii) a small group prefers not to support additional climate policies. Finally a somewhat larger group...

  3. Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael R. Guzy

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

  4. Modeling environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, W.E.; McDonald, L.A.

    1997-01-01

    The eight book chapters demonstrate the link between the physical models of the environment and the policy analysis in support of policy making. Each chapter addresses an environmental policy issue using a quantitative modeling approach. The volume addresses three general areas of environmental policy - non-point source pollution in the agricultural sector, pollution generated in the extractive industries, and transboundary pollutants from burning fossil fuels. The book concludes by discussing the modeling efforts and the use of mathematical models in general. Chapters are entitled: modeling environmental policy: an introduction; modeling nonpoint source pollution in an integrated system (agri-ecological); modeling environmental and trade policy linkages: the case of EU and US agriculture; modeling ecosystem constraints in the Clean Water Act: a case study in Clearwater National Forest (subject to discharge from metal mining waste); costs and benefits of coke oven emission controls; modeling equilibria and risk under global environmental constraints (discussing energy and environmental interrelations); relative contribution of the enhanced greenhouse effect on the coastal changes in Louisiana; and the use of mathematical models in policy evaluations: comments. The paper on coke area emission controls has been abstracted separately for the IEA Coal Research CD-ROM

  5. Potential impact of EU Common Agriculture Policy on Croatian dairy sector - modelling results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena Zrakić

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Milk in terms of production value has the second biggest share in Croatian agricultural sector in 2013 (CBS, 2014. It could be speculated that after the abolition of quotas in the European Union, the declining trend in domestic production will continue and that exposure to free European market will significantly affect the competitiveness of domestic production. The aim of this paper is to analyse the prospects of Croatian dairy industry (sector under certain conditions of the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP and to present projections simulated with the help of partial equilibrium model AGMEMOD. The main model inputs are policy and macroeconomic variables, supply-use balances of agro-food products and producer prices. The Baseline projections has shown that in 2025 in line with the CAP implementation there might be a decrease of dairy cows number by 33 %, the raw milk price by 14 % and the collected cow’s milk amount by 13 % compared to the five-year average of 2008-2012. The positive effect was noted in productivity, according to the simulation, with an increase by 25 %, which consequently may lead to increased deliveries to dairies for about 17 %. Therefore preliminary results show that accounting for milk processing the dairy sector in Croatia might obtain a favourable situation by 2025. Taking into account the EU market situation, there is an opportunity to increase milk processing given the current level of prices in the EU market and global markets, and taking into account the abolition of milk quotas. Also, the results suggest, according to the experience of other states, that the utilization of funds of 1st and 2nd pillar of the CAP (utilization measures across projects in order to improve the production structure and efficiency will play an important role.

  6. Assessing the Impact of Policy Changes in the Icelandic Cod Fishery Using a Hybrid Simulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sigríður Sigurðardóttir

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the Icelandic cod is caught in bottom trawlers or longliners. These two fishing methods are fundamentally different and have different economic, environmental, and even social effects. In this paper we present a hybrid-simulation framework to assess the impact of changing the ratio between cod quota allocated to vessels with longlines and vessels with bottom trawls. It makes use of conventional bioeconomic models and discrete event modelling and provides a framework for simulating life cycle assessment (LCA for a cod fishery. The model consists of two submodels, a system dynamics model describing the biological aspect of the fishery and a discrete event model for fishing activities. The model was run multiple times for different quota allocation scenarios and results are presented where different scenarios are presented in the three dimensions of sustainability: environmental, social, and economic. The optimal allocation strategy depends on weighing the three different factors. The results were encouraging first-steps towards a useful modelling method but the study would benefit greatly from better data on fishing activities.

  7. Analysis of the economic impact of different Chinese climate policy options based on a CGE model incorporating endogenous technological change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Ke; Wang Can; Chen Jining

    2009-01-01

    Abatement cost is the main concern for climate change mitigation and the key factor for mitigation cost is technological change. This study established an integrated economic, energy, environmental, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model representing endogenous technological change for China's climate change policy analysis. This study analyzed and compared the economic impact of different approaches to mitigation commitments as well as the potential role of technological change in the formulation of mitigation targets and commitments, taking into account China's climate policy-making needs based on the current international climate negotiation process. The results show that, absolute emission limits similar to the Kyoto Protocol will seriously impede the future economic development of China, while the impact of an 80% reduction in carbon intensity, forecast for 2050 based on the 2005 level, is relatively small. Technological change can promote economic growth, improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon intensity per unit of output through the substitution of production factors. Consequently it can reduce marginal abatement cost and related GDP loss by mitigation. At the same time it can increase mitigation potentials and extend the emission reduction amount, showing that consideration of the impact of technological change when deciding the emission reduction targets is necessary.

  8. The Impacts of Policies To Meet The UK Climate Change Act Target on Air Quality - An Explicit Modelling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, M.; Beevers, S.; Lott, M. C.; Kitwiroon, N.

    2016-12-01

    This paper presents a preliminary analysis of different pathways to meet the UK Climate Change Act target for 2050, of an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions on a base year of 1990. The pathways can result in low levels of air pollution emissions through the use of renewables and nuclear power. But large increases in biomass burning and the continued use of diesel cars they can result in larger air quality impacts. The work evaluated the air quality impacts in several pathways using an energy system optimisation model (UK TIMES) and a chemical transport model (CMAQ). The work described in this paper goes beyond the `damage cost' approach where only emissions in each are assessed. In this work we used scenarios produced by the UK TIMES model which we converted into air pollution emissions. Emissions of ammonia from agriculture are not attributed to the energy system and are thus not captured by energy system models, yet are crucial in forming PM2.5, acknowledged to be currently the most important pollutant associated with premature deaths. Our model includes these emissions and other non-energy sources of hydrocarbons which lead to the formation of ozone, another significant cause of air pollution health impacts. A key policy issue is how much biogenic hydrocarbons contribute to ozone formation compared with man-made emissions. We modelled pollution concentrations at a resolution of 7 km across the UK and at 2km in urban areas. These results allow us to estimate changes in premature mortality and morbidity associated with the changes in air pollution and subsequently the economic cost of the impacts on public health. The work shows that in the `clean' scenario, urban exposures to particles (PM2.5) and NO2 could decrease by very large amounts, but ozone exposures are likely to increase without further significant reductions world-wide. Large increases in biomass use however could lead to increases in urban levels of carcinogens and primary PM.

  9. Global Biodiversity Indicators Reflect the Modeled Impacts of Protected Area Policy Change

    OpenAIRE

    Costelloe, B.; Milner-Gulland, E. J.; Nicholson, E.; Mcrae, L.; Collen, B.; Craigie, I. D.; Rondinini, C.

    2016-01-01

    Global biodiversity indicators can be used to measure the status and trends of biodiversity relating to Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) targets. Whether such indicators can support decision makers by distinguishing among policy options remains poorly evaluated. We tested the ability of two CBD indicators, the Living Planet Index and the Red List Index, to reflect projected changes in mammalian populations in sub-Saharan Africa in response to potential policies related to CBD targets ...

  10. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2011 - part 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - estimating impacts and valuing damages on a sectoral basis.

  11. impacts of alternative farm policies on rural communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Michael Bowker; James W. Richardson

    1989-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to describe an LP/IO model for evaluating the economic impacts of alternative farm policies on rural communities and demonstrate its capabilities by analyzing the impacts of three farm policies on a rural community in Texas. Results indicate that in the noncrop sector, two groups of industries are most affected by farm policy. The first...

  12. Exploring policy impacts for servicising in product-based markets : A generic agent-based model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Veen, R.A.C.; Kisjes, K.H.; Nikolic, I.

    2017-01-01

    The shift to markets based on servicising, i.e. market-level transitions from product-based to service-based production and consumption patterns, may contribute to achieve absolute decoupling, i.e. the combined development of economic growth and environmental impact reduction. However, the

  13. Towards increased policy relevance in energy modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worrell, Ernst; Ramesohl, Stephan; Boyd, Gale

    2003-07-29

    Historically, most energy models were reasonably equipped to assess the impact of a subsidy or change in taxation, but are often insufficient to assess the impact of more innovative policy instruments. We evaluate the models used to assess future energy use, focusing on industrial energy use. We explore approaches to engineering-economic analysis that could help improve the realism and policy relevance of engineering-economic modeling frameworks. We also explore solutions to strengthen the policy usefulness of engineering-economic analysis that can be built from a framework of multi-disciplinary cooperation. We focus on the so-called ''engineering-economic'' (or ''bottom-up'') models, as they include the amount of detail that is commonly needed to model policy scenarios. We identify research priorities for the modeling framework, technology representation in models, policy evaluation and modeling of decision-making behavior.

  14. Modelling impact of advertising and optimizing advertising policy: an application in recreation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    1981-01-01

    textabstractThis paper deals with the problem of the desirable level of advertising expenditure, the optimal distribution of this expenditure in time and the allocation over the media: TV, radio and newspaper for a recreation park in the Netherlands. Although the model id developed for the specific

  15. A multi-modal network approach to model public transport accessibility impacts of bicycle-train integration policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geurs, Karst Teunis; La Paix Puello, Lissy Cesarina; van Weperen, Sander

    2016-01-01

    In the Netherlands, the bicycle plays an important in station access and, to a lesser extent, in station egress. There is however fairly little knowledge in the potential effects of bicycle-train integration policies. The aim of this paper is to examine the impacts of bicycle-train integration

  16. Assessing the impact of policy interventions on the adoption of plug-in electric vehicles: An agent-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silvia, Chris; Krause, Rachel M.

    2016-01-01

    Heightened concern regarding climate change and energy independence has increased interest in plug-in electric vehicles as one means to address these challenges and governments at all levels have considered policy interventions to encourage their adoption. This paper develops an agent-based model that simulates the introduction of four policy scenarios aimed at promoting electric vehicle adoption in an urban community and compares them against a baseline. These scenarios include reducing vehicle purchase price via subsidies, expanding the local public charging network, increasing the number and visibility of fully battery electric vehicles (BEVs) on the roadway through government fleet purchases, and a hybrid mix of these three approaches. The results point to the effectiveness of policy options that increased awareness of BEV technology. Specifically, the hybrid policy alternative was the most successful in encouraging BEV adoption. This policy increases the visibility and familiarity of BEV technology in the community and may help counter the idea that BEVs are not a viable alternative to gasoline-powered vehicles. - Highlights: •Various policy interventions to encourage electric vehicle adoption are examined. •An agent based model is used to simulate individual adoption decisions. •Policies that increase the familiarity of electric vehicles are most effective.

  17. Nutrition policies at child-care centers and impact on role modeling of healthy eating behaviors of caregivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erinosho, Temitope O; Hales, Derek P; McWilliams, Christina P; Emunah, Josie; Ward, Dianne Stanton

    2012-01-01

    Studies suggest that caregivers influence children's dietary behaviors through role modeling in child-care environments. However, few studies have examined role modeling by caregivers and child-care center policies. This cross-sectional study evaluated the associations between child-care center policies about staff eating practices and caregivers' eating behaviors during mealtime interactions with children. Data were collected in 2008-2009 at 50 North Carolina child-care centers. Caregivers (n=124) reported about modeling healthy eating behaviors to children, trained research staff observed caregivers' (n=112) eating behaviors in classrooms, and directors reported about the presence/absence of center policies on staff eating practices. About 90% of caregivers reported modeling healthy eating behaviors to children. At 80% of centers, caregivers were observed modeling healthy dietary behaviors (eg, sitting with or eating same foods as children), but at fewer centers they were observed consuming unhealthy foods (eg, fast foods, salty snacks: 25%; and sugar-sweetened beverages: 50%). Although no substantial associations were observed between caregiver behaviors and center policies, effect size estimates suggest differences that may be of clinical significance. For example, caregivers were observed modeling healthy dietary behaviors more frequently at centers that had written policies about staff discouraging unhealthy foods for meals/snacks and having informal nutrition talks with children at meals. However, caregivers were observed consuming unhealthy foods and sugar-sweetened beverages more often at centers with policies that promoted healthier foods for meals/snacks. Future research should build on this study by using larger samples to understand why healthy food policies in child-care centers may not translate to eating practices among caregivers. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. EPIC Forest LAI Dataset: LAI estimates generated from the USDA Environmental Policy Impact Climate (EPIC) model (a widely used, field-scale, biogeochemical model) on four forest complexes spanning three physiographic provinces in VA and NC.

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This data depicts calculated and validated LAI estimates generated from the USDA Environmental Policy Impact Climate (EPIC) model (a widely used, field-scale,...

  19. Kenya's health workforce information system: a model of impact on strategic human resources policy, planning and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waters, Keith P; Zuber, Alexandra; Willy, Rankesh M; Kiriinya, Rose N; Waudo, Agnes N; Oluoch, Tom; Kimani, Francis M; Riley, Patricia L

    2013-09-01

    Countries worldwide are challenged by health worker shortages, skill mix imbalances, and maldistribution. Human resources information systems (HRIS) are used to monitor and address these health workforce issues, but global understanding of such systems is minimal and baseline information regarding their scope and capability is practically non-existent. The Kenya Health Workforce Information System (KHWIS) has been identified as a promising example of a functioning HRIS. The objective of this paper is to document the impact of KHWIS data on human resources policy, planning and management. Sources for this study included semi-structured interviews with senior officials at Kenya's Ministry of Medical Services (MOMS), Ministry of Public Health and Sanitation (MOPHS), the Department of Nursing within MOMS, the Nursing Council of Kenya, Kenya Medical Practitioners and Dentists Board, Kenya's Clinical Officers Council, and Kenya Medical Laboratory Technicians and Technologists Board. Additionally, quantitative data were extracted from KHWIS databases to supplement the interviews. Health sector policy documents were retrieved from MOMS and MOPHS websites, and reviewed to assess whether they documented any changes to policy and practice as having been impacted by KHWIS data. Interviews with Kenyan government and regulatory officials cited health workforce data provided by KHWIS influenced policy, regulation, and management. Policy changes include extension of Kenya's age of mandatory civil service retirement from 55 to 60 years. Data retrieved from KHWIS document increased relicensing of professional nurses, midwives, medical practitioners and dentists, and interviewees reported this improved compliance raised professional regulatory body revenues. The review of Government records revealed few references to KHWIS; however, documentation specifically cited the KHWIS as having improved the availability of human resources for health information regarding workforce planning

  20. Renewable energy investment: Policy and market impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reuter, Wolf Heinrich; Szolgayová, Jana; Fuss, Sabine; Obersteiner, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Feedback of decisions to the market: large companies can have an impact on prices in the market. ► Multiple uncertainties: analysis of uncertainties emanating from both markets and environment. ► Policy analysis: impact of uncertainty about the durability of feed-in tariffs. -- Abstract: The liberalization of electricity markets in recent years has enhanced competition among power-generating firms facing uncertain decisions of competitors and thus uncertain prices. At the same time, promoting renewable energy has been a key ingredient in energy policy seeking to de-carbonize the energy mix. Public incentives for companies to invest in renewable technologies range from feed-in tariffs, to investment subsidies, tax credits, portfolio requirements and certificate systems. We use a real options model in discrete time with lumpy multiple investments to analyze the decisions of an electricity producer to invest into new power generating capacity, to select the type of technology and to optimize its operation under price uncertainty and with market effects. We account for both the specific characteristics of renewables and the market effects of investment decisions. The prices are determined endogenously by the supply of electricity in the market and by exogenous electricity price uncertainty. The framework is used to analyze energy policy, as well as the reaction of producers to uncertainty in the political and regulatory framework. In this way, we are able to compare different policies to foster investment into renewables and analyze their impacts on the market.

  1. The Impact of Funding Policies on Higher Education in Jamaica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkrumah-Young, Kofi K.; Huisman, Jeroen; Powell, Philip

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyses the changes in the higher education funding policies and resource allocation models of the Jamaican government in the period 1962-2003. Throughout these four decades, four different systems were in force. This paper focuses particularly on the arguments for the funding policies and models and the impact of the models on the…

  2. Projected Impact of Mexico's Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax Policy on Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease: A Modeling Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luz Maria Sánchez-Romero

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Rates of diabetes in Mexico are among the highest worldwide. In 2014, Mexico instituted a nationwide tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs in order to reduce the high level of SSB consumption, a preventable cause of diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD. We used an established computer simulation model of CVD and country-specific data on demographics, epidemiology, SSB consumption, and short-term changes in consumption following the SSB tax in order to project potential long-range health and economic impacts of SSB taxation in Mexico.We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Mexico, a state transition model of Mexican adults aged 35-94 y, to project the potential future effects of reduced SSB intake on diabetes incidence, CVD events, direct diabetes healthcare costs, and mortality over 10 y. Model inputs included short-term changes in SSB consumption in response to taxation (price elasticity and data from government and market research surveys and public healthcare institutions. Two main scenarios were modeled: a 10% reduction in SSB consumption (corresponding to the reduction observed after tax implementation and a 20% reduction in SSB consumption (possible with increases in taxation levels and/or additional measures to curb consumption. Given uncertainty about the degree to which Mexicans will replace calories from SSBs with calories from other sources, we evaluated a range of values for calorie compensation. We projected that a 10% reduction in SSB consumption with 39% calorie compensation among Mexican adults would result in about 189,300 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 155,400-218,100 fewer incident type 2 diabetes cases, 20,400 fewer incident strokes and myocardial infarctions, and 18,900 fewer deaths occurring from 2013 to 2022. This scenario predicts that the SSB tax could save Mexico 983 million international dollars (95% UI $769 million-$1,173 million. The largest relative and absolute reductions in diabetes and CVD events

  3. Projected Impact of Mexico’s Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax Policy on Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease: A Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Romero, Luz Maria; Penko, Joanne; Coxson, Pamela G.; Fernández, Alicia; Mason, Antoinette; Moran, Andrew E.; Ávila-Burgos, Leticia; Barquera, Simón; Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten

    2016-01-01

    Background Rates of diabetes in Mexico are among the highest worldwide. In 2014, Mexico instituted a nationwide tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in order to reduce the high level of SSB consumption, a preventable cause of diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We used an established computer simulation model of CVD and country-specific data on demographics, epidemiology, SSB consumption, and short-term changes in consumption following the SSB tax in order to project potential long-range health and economic impacts of SSB taxation in Mexico. Methods and Findings We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model–Mexico, a state transition model of Mexican adults aged 35–94 y, to project the potential future effects of reduced SSB intake on diabetes incidence, CVD events, direct diabetes healthcare costs, and mortality over 10 y. Model inputs included short-term changes in SSB consumption in response to taxation (price elasticity) and data from government and market research surveys and public healthcare institutions. Two main scenarios were modeled: a 10% reduction in SSB consumption (corresponding to the reduction observed after tax implementation) and a 20% reduction in SSB consumption (possible with increases in taxation levels and/or additional measures to curb consumption). Given uncertainty about the degree to which Mexicans will replace calories from SSBs with calories from other sources, we evaluated a range of values for calorie compensation. We projected that a 10% reduction in SSB consumption with 39% calorie compensation among Mexican adults would result in about 189,300 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 155,400–218,100) fewer incident type 2 diabetes cases, 20,400 fewer incident strokes and myocardial infarctions, and 18,900 fewer deaths occurring from 2013 to 2022. This scenario predicts that the SSB tax could save Mexico 983 million international dollars (95% UI $769 million–$1,173 million). The largest relative and absolute reductions in

  4. Scientists' response to societal impact policies: A policy paradox

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, S.; Smit, Jorrit; van Drooge, L.

    2016-01-01

    Many countries have amended legislation and introduced policies to stimulate universities to transfer their knowledge to society. The effects of these policies on scientists are relatively unexplored. We employ principal–agent theory to increase our understanding of the relationship between impact

  5. Evaluating the impact of climate policies on regional food availability and accessibility using an Integrated Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, E.; Cui, Y. R.; Waldhoff, S.

    2015-12-01

    Beyond 2015, eradicating hunger will remain a critical part of the global development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Efforts to limit climate change through both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use policies may interact with food availability and accessibility in complex and unanticipated ways. Here, we develop projections of regional food accessibility to 2050 under the alternative futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and under different climate policy targets and structures. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), for our projections. We calculate food access as the weighted average of consumption of five staples and the portion of income spend on those commodities and extend the GCAM calculated universal global producer price to regional consumer prices drawing on historical relationships of these prices. Along the SSPs, food access depends largely on expectations of increases in population and economic status. Under a more optimistic scenario, the pressures on food access from increasing demand and rising prices can be counterbalanced by faster economic development. Stringent climate policies that increase commodity prices, however, may hinder vulnerable regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa, from achieving greater food accessibility.

  6. Innovative energy technologies in energy-economy models: assessing economic, energy and environmental impacts of climate policy and technological change in Germany.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schumacher, K.

    2007-04-18

    Energy technologies and innovation are considered to play a crucial role in climate change mitigation. Yet, the representation of technologies in energy-economy models, which are used extensively to analyze the economic, energy and environmental impacts of alternative energy and climate policies, is rather limited. This dissertation presents advanced techniques of including technological innovations in energy-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. New methods are explored and applied for improving the realism of energy production and consumption in such top-down models. The dissertation addresses some of the main criticism of general equilibrium models in the field of energy and climate policy analysis: The lack of detailed sectoral and technical disaggregation, the restricted view on innovation and technological change, and the lack of extended greenhouse gas mitigation options. The dissertation reflects on the questions of (1) how to introduce innovation and technological change in a computable general equilibrium model as well as (2) what additional and policy relevant information is gained from using these methodologies. Employing a new hybrid approach of incorporating technology-specific information for electricity generation and iron and steel production in a dynamic multi-sector computable equilibrium model it can be concluded that technology-specific effects are crucial for the economic assessment of climate policy, in particular the effects relating to process shifts and fuel input structure. Additionally, the dissertation shows that learning-by-doing in renewable energy takes place in the renewable electricity sector but is equally important in upstream sectors that produce technologies, i.e. machinery and equipment, for renewable electricity generation. The differentiation of learning effects in export sectors, such as renewable energy technologies, matters for the economic assessment of climate policies because of effects on international

  7. Combination of equilibrium models and hybrid life cycle-input–output analysis to predict the environmental impacts of energy policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igos, Elorri; Rugani, Benedetto; Rege, Sameer; Benetto, Enrico; Drouet, Laurent; Zachary, Daniel S.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The environmental impacts of two energy policy scenarios in Luxembourg are assessed. • Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Partial Equilibrium (PE) models are used. • Results from coupling of CGE and PE are integrated in hybrid Life Cycle Assessment. • Impacts due to energy related production and imports are likely to grow over time. • Carbon mitigation policies seem to not substantially decrease the impacts’ trend. - Abstract: Nowadays, many countries adopt an active agenda to mitigate the impact of greenhouse gas emissions by moving towards less polluting energy generation technologies. The environmental costs, directly or indirectly generated to achieve such a challenging objective, remain however largely underexplored. Until now, research has focused either on pure economic approaches such as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and partial equilibrium (PE) models, or on (physical) energy supply scenarios. These latter could be used to evaluate the environmental impacts of various energy saving or cleaner technologies via Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology. These modelling efforts have, however, been pursued in isolation, without exploring the possible complementarities and synergies. In this study, we have undertaken a practical combination of these approaches into a common framework: on the one hand, by coupling a CGE with a PE model, and, on the other hand, by linking the outcomes from the coupling with a hybrid input–output−process based life cycle inventory. The methodological framework aimed at assessing the environmental consequences of two energy policy scenarios in Luxembourg between 2010 and 2025. The study highlights the potential of coupling CGE and PE models but also the related methodological difficulties (e.g. small number of available technologies in Luxembourg, intrinsic limitations of the two approaches, etc.). The assessment shows both environmental synergies and trade-offs due to the implementation of

  8. The relative impact of climate change mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity - An integrated assessment modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J. A.; Clarke, L. E.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Chaturvedi, V.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Kim, S.; Calvin, K. V.; Moss, R. H.

    2012-12-01

    We investigate the relative effects of climate emission mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally, by estimating both water availability and demand within a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We first develop a global gridded monthly hydrologic model that reproduces historical streamflow observations and simulates the future availability of freshwater under both a changing climate and an evolving landscape, and incorporate this model into GCAM. We then develop and incorporate technologically oriented representations of water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. To perform the water scarcity analysis at the grid scale, the global water demands for the six demand sectors are spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. The water scarcity index (WSI) compares total water demand to the total amount of renewable water available, and defines extreme water scarcity in any region as demand greater than 40% of total water availability. Using a reference scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 by 2095 and a global population of 14 billion, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demands for water exceed the total

  9. The Regional Impact of Monetary Policy in Indonesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ridhwan, M.M.; de Groot, H.L.F.; Rietveld, P.; Nijkamp, P.

    2014-01-01

    This paper employs vector autoregressive (VAR) models to measure the impact of monetary policy shocks on regional output in Indonesia. We find substantial cross-regional variation in policy responses in terms of both magnitude as well as timing. Our work adds to the existing literature by providing

  10. Impact Of Monetary Policy On Financial Asset Returns: An Analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper presents an analysis of the impact of monetary policy on financial asset returns, with particular reference to stocks. The minimum discount rate and an index based on the direction of change in discount rate were used as monetary policy proxies. The analysis was done using a multi-association model of which ...

  11. Strategic science for eating disorders research and policy impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberto, Christina A; Brownell, Kelly D

    2017-03-01

    Scientific research often fails to have relevance and impact because scientists do not engage policy makers and influencers in the process of identifying information needs and generating high priority questions. To address this scholarship-policy gap, we have developed a model of Strategic Science. This research approach involves working with policy makers and influencers to craft research questions that will answer important and timely policy-related questions. The goal is to create tighter links between research and policy and ensure findings are communicated efficiently to change agents best positioned to apply the research to policy debates. In this article, we lay out a model for Strategic Science and describe how this approach may help advance policy research and action for eating disorders. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarborough, Peter; Harrington, Richard A; Mizdrak, Anja; Zhou, Lijuan Marissa; Doherty, Aiden

    2014-01-01

    Noncommunicable disease (NCD) scenario models are an essential part of the public health toolkit, allowing for an estimate of the health impact of population-level interventions that are not amenable to assessment by standard epidemiological study designs (e.g., health-related food taxes and physical infrastructure projects) and extrapolating results from small samples to the whole population. The PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl) is an openly available NCD scenario model that estimates the effect of population-level changes in diet, physical activity, and alcohol and tobacco consumption on NCD mortality. The structure and methods employed in the PRIME are described here in detail, including the development of open source code that will support a PRIME web application to be launched in 2015. This paper reviews scenario results from eleven papers that have used the PRIME, including estimates of the impact of achieving government recommendations for healthy diets, health-related food taxes and subsidies, and low-carbon diets. Future challenges for NCD scenario modelling, including the need for more comparisons between models and the improvement of future prediction of NCD rates, are also discussed.

  13. The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Scarborough

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Noncommunicable disease (NCD scenario models are an essential part of the public health toolkit, allowing for an estimate of the health impact of population-level interventions that are not amenable to assessment by standard epidemiological study designs (e.g., health-related food taxes and physical infrastructure projects and extrapolating results from small samples to the whole population. The PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl is an openly available NCD scenario model that estimates the effect of population-level changes in diet, physical activity, and alcohol and tobacco consumption on NCD mortality. The structure and methods employed in the PRIME are described here in detail, including the development of open source code that will support a PRIME web application to be launched in 2015. This paper reviews scenario results from eleven papers that have used the PRIME, including estimates of the impact of achieving government recommendations for healthy diets, health-related food taxes and subsidies, and low-carbon diets. Future challenges for NCD scenario modelling, including the need for more comparisons between models and the improvement of future prediction of NCD rates, are also discussed.

  14. Conclusions: inequality, impacts, and policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salverda, W.; Nolan, B.; Checchi, D.; Marx, I.; McKnight, A.; Tóth, I.G.; van de Werfhorst, H.; Salverda, W.; Nolan, B.; Checchi, D.; Marx, I.; McKnight, A.; Tóth, I.G.; van de Werfhorst, H.

    2014-01-01

    Keeping economic inequality in check is an uphill battle, though countries differ. General drivers seem mediated, moderated, accelerated or perhaps even replaced by demographic, institutions or policy-making changes. Growing inequality is not found robustly linked to worsening social outcomes

  15. 77 FR 68776 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-16

    ... EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public..., Malaysia, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, South Africa, Spain, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Turkey, and United Kingdom. Interested parties may submit comments on this transaction by email to economic.impact...

  16. From Predictive Models to Instructional Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rollinson, Joseph; Brunskill, Emma

    2015-01-01

    At their core, Intelligent Tutoring Systems consist of a student model and a policy. The student model captures the state of the student and the policy uses the student model to individualize instruction. Policies require different properties from the student model. For example, a mastery threshold policy requires the student model to have a way…

  17. Impacts of the EU sugar policy reforms on developing countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berkum, van S.; Roza, P.; Tongeren, van F.W.

    2005-01-01

    This report analyses the impacts of the Commission's July 2004 proposal for sugar policy reforms on developing countries. The study uses three approaches that complement each other: model simulations, literature review and country case studies. Model simulations indicate that the consequences of the

  18. Environmental policy implications of working from home: Modelling the impacts of land-use, infrastructure and socio-demographics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu Miao; Andrew Kelly, J.; Peter Clinch, J.; King, Fearghal

    2012-01-01

    Working from home is generally perceived as an effective means of reducing energy use and associated pollution from commuter transport. In order to consider the merits of mechanisms and policies to support a change in behaviour that results in greater take-up of home working, this paper applies energy consumption per commute calculations and a logit model using a case study of Ireland. In marked contrast with larger countries, the energy consumption per commute is relatively low in Ireland. Nonetheless, the analysis indicates that, on average, at least an average net saving of 9.33 kW h per day can be achieved where an individual converts to working from home, after deducting the home energy consumption associated with home working. We find that land use patterns, public transport networks, internet infrastructure, commute distances and socio-demographic characteristics can serve to influence rates of home working. Encouraging the higher and lower professional categories and those in the service sectors to work from home should be the highest priority in terms of energy and emissions reductions. Increased coverage of internet services and railway coverage will support higher rates of home working. Increased dispersion of residential, commercial and industrial areas serves to encourage greater home working. - Highlights: ► An average net energy saving of 9.33 kW h per day can be achieved by an individual changing to working from home. ► Land use patterns, public transport and internet infrastructure influence rates of home working. ► Commute distances and socio-demographic characteristics influence the take-up of home working. ► Encouraging home-working by higher and lower professionals and the service sectors is the priority.

  19. Impact of Trade Policy Reforms on the Environment

    OpenAIRE

    Medalla, Erlinda M.

    2001-01-01

    The paper attempts to provide a theoretical analysis as well as some indicators on the linkage between trade policy and the environment. It looks at what has happened to the share of manufacturing industries by pollution classification over time and finds that the share of non-pollutive/nonhazardous industries have grown over the years covering the period of trade reforms. The impact of trade policy on the environment was also analyzed using a simulation model which predicts what happens to p...

  20. The International Impact of US Unconventional Monetary Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lutz, Chandler

    2015-01-01

    Using a structural factor-augmented vector autoregression model and a large data set of daily time series, we study the impact of US unconventional monetary policy on British and German financial markets. Our findings indicate that a surprise US unconventional monetary policy easing leads to incr...... to increased equity returns and lower government bond yields for both Germany and the United Kingdom. These effects then nearly completely dissipate after approximately 750 days....

  1. Healthy Food Procurement Policies and Their Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niebylski, Mark L.; Lu, Tammy; Campbell, Norm R. C.; Arcand, Joanne; Schermel, Alyssa; Hua, Diane; Yeates, Karen E.; Tobe, Sheldon W.; Twohig, Patrick A.; L’Abbé, Mary R.; Liu, Peter P.

    2014-01-01

    Unhealthy eating is the leading risk for death and disability globally. As a result, the World Health Organization (WHO) has called for population health interventions. One of the proposed interventions is to ensure healthy foods are available by implementing healthy food procurement policies. The objective of this systematic review was to evaluate the evidence base assessing the impact of such policies. A comprehensive review was conducted by searching PubMed and Medline for policies that had been implemented and evaluated the impact of food purchases, food consumption, and behaviors towards healthy foods. Thirty-four studies were identified and found to be effective at increasing the availability and purchases of healthy food and decreasing purchases of unhealthy food. Most policies also had other components such as education, price reductions, and health interventions. The multiple gaps in research identified by this review suggest that additional research and ongoing evaluation of food procurement programs is required. Implementation of healthy food procurement policies in schools, worksites, hospitals, care homes, correctional facilities, government institutions, and remote communities increase markers of healthy eating. Prior or simultaneous implementation of ancillary education about healthy eating, and rationale for the policy may be critical success factors and additional research is needed. PMID:24595213

  2. Impact assessment of land use policies: Introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bezlepkina, I.; Brouwer, F.M.; Reidsma, P.

    2014-01-01

    This special issue is built around a series of impact assessments of land use policies and sustainable development in developing countries, carried out in the EU-funded project LUPIS (Sixth framework programme, Global Change and Ecosystems, Contract 36955). The project targeted at the development

  3. 78 FR 6322 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-30

    ... EXPORT-IMPORT BANK Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export..., France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Indonesia, Italy, Kenya, Malaysia, Philippines, Poland, Romania... comments on this transaction by email to economic[email protected] or by mail to 811 Vermont Avenue NW...

  4. Unpacking the impacts of 'participatory' forestry policies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mutune, Jane Mutheu; Lund, Jens Friis

    2016-01-01

    We evaluate the livelihoods of member and non-members of Community Forestry Associations under Kenya's participatory forest management (PFM) programme. We use propensity score matching of households based on recall based data from before implementation of PFM from 286 households and comparison....... Further, we conclude that impact evaluations must examine both outcomes and participatory forestry to provide meaningful policy evidence....

  5. 75 FR 28021 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-19

    ... UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of... export of approximately $450 million worth of mining equipment and services to Mexico. The U.S. exports... in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and Brazil. Interested parties may submit comments on this transaction...

  6. 75 FR 24700 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-05

    ... UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of... million revolving credit line for the export of U.S. foundry tooling equipment to Mexico. The U.S. exports... economic[email protected] or by mail to 811 Vermont Avenue, NW., Room 1238, Washington, DC 20571, within 14...

  7. 77 FR 3772 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-25

    ... UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of... facility in Mexico. The financed amount associated with the U.S. export contract, including local cost and... Mexico, and also to the U.S., Central America, and South America. Interested parties may submit comments...

  8. 78 FR 12316 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-22

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office EXPORT-IMPORT BANK Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of the United States has... production will be sold in India with the remainder sold in Mexico, the Middle East, Africa, and ASEAN...

  9. 77 FR 44614 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-30

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of... in India. The financed amount associated with the U.S. export contract is expected to total...

  10. 75 FR 20993 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-22

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of... and Central), China, and India. Interested parties may submit comments on this transaction by e- mail...

  11. Renewable resource policy when distributional impacts matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horan, R.D.; Shortle, J.S.; Bulte, E.H.

    1999-01-01

    The standard assumption in bioeconomic resource models is that optimal policies maximize the present value of economic surplus to society. This assumption implies that regulatory agencies should not be concerned with the distributional consequences of management strategies. Both contemporary welfare-theoretic and rent-seeking approaches suggests distributional issues are important in designing resource management policies. This paper explores resource management when the managing agency has preferences defined over the economic welfare of various groups with a direct economic interest in the use of resources. Policy schemes consistent with this approach are derived and compared with standard results. 42 refs

  12. Ecological and economic impacts of forest policies: interactions across forestry and agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.J. Alig; D.M. Adams; B.A. McCarl

    1998-01-01

    A linked model of the US forest and agriculture sectors was used to examine the economic and ecological impacts of two forest policies: a minimum harvest age limitation and a reduced public harvest policy. Simulated private responses to both policies indicate that landowners could undertake a range of adjustments to minimize their welfare impacts, but imposition of...

  13. Energy-economic policy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanstad, Alan H.

    2018-01-01

    Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.

  14. Comparing different policy scenarios to reduce the consumption of ultra-processed foods in UK: impact on cardiovascular disease mortality using a modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, Patricia V L; Baraldi, Larissa Galastri; Moubarac, Jean-Claude; Monteiro, Carlos Augusto; Newton, Alex; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin

    2015-01-01

    The global burden of non-communicable diseases partly reflects growing exposure to ultra-processed food products (UPPs). These heavily marketed UPPs are cheap and convenient for consumers and profitable for manufacturers, but contain high levels of salt, fat and sugars. This study aimed to explore the potential mortality reduction associated with future policies for substantially reducing ultra-processed food intake in the UK. We obtained data from the UK Living Cost and Food Survey and from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey. By the NOVA food typology, all food items were categorized into three groups according to the extent of food processing: Group 1 describes unprocessed/minimally processed foods. Group 2 comprises processed culinary ingredients. Group 3 includes all processed or ultra-processed products. Using UK nutrient conversion tables, we estimated the energy and nutrient profile of each food group. We then used the IMPACT Food Policy model to estimate reductions in cardiovascular mortality from improved nutrient intakes reflecting shifts from processed or ultra-processed to unprocessed/minimally processed foods. We then conducted probabilistic sensitivity analyses using Monte Carlo simulation. Approximately 175,000 cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths might be expected in 2030 if current mortality patterns persist. However, halving the intake of Group 3 (processed) foods could result in approximately 22,055 fewer CVD related deaths in 2030 (minimum estimate 10,705, maximum estimate 34,625). An ideal scenario in which salt and fat intakes are reduced to the low levels observed in Group 1 and 2 could lead to approximately 14,235 (minimum estimate 6,680, maximum estimate 22,525) fewer coronary deaths and approximately 7,820 (minimum estimate 4,025, maximum estimate 12,100) fewer stroke deaths, comprising almost 13% mortality reduction. This study shows a substantial potential for reducing the cardiovascular disease burden through a healthier food system

  15. Modeling of global biomass policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gielen, D.; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies. (Author)

  16. Modeling of global biomass policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gielen, Dolf; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies

  17. Policy advice derived from simulation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brenner, T.; Werker, C.

    2009-01-01

    When advising policy we face the fundamental problem that economic processes are connected with uncertainty and thus policy can err. In this paper we show how the use of simulation models can reduce policy errors. We suggest that policy is best based on socalled abductive simulation models, which

  18. Dynamic energy models and carbon mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilley, Luke A.

    In this dissertation I examine a specific class of energy models and their implications for carbon mitigation policies. The class of models includes a production function capable of reproducing the empirically observed phenomenon of short run rigidity of energy use in response to energy price changes and long run exibility of energy use in response to energy price changes. I use a theoretical model, parameterized using empirical data, to simulate economic performance under several tax regimes where taxes are levied on capital income, investment, and energy. I also investigate transitions from one tax regime to another. I find that energy taxes intended to reduce energy use can successfully achieve those goals with minimal or even positive impacts on macroeconomic performance. But the transition paths to new steady states are lengthy, making political commitment to such policies very challenging.

  19. Policy modeling for energy efficiency improvement in US industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worrell, Ernst; Price, Lynn; Ruth, Michael

    2001-01-01

    We are at the beginning of a process of evaluating and modeling the contribution of policies to improve energy efficiency. Three recent policy studies trying to assess the impact of energy efficiency policies in the United States are reviewed. The studies represent an important step in the analysis of climate change mitigation strategies. All studies model the estimated policy impact, rather than the policy itself. Often the policy impacts are based on assumptions, as the effects of a policy are not certain. Most models only incorporate economic (or price) tools, which recent studies have proven to be insufficient to estimate the impacts, costs and benefits of mitigation strategies. The reviewed studies are a first effort to capture the effects of non-price policies. The studies contribute to a better understanding of the role of policies in improving energy efficiency and mitigating climate change. All policy scenarios results in substantial energy savings compared to the baseline scenario used, as well as substantial net benefits to the U.S. economy

  20. Maternal death inquiry and response in India - the impact of contextual factors on defining an optimal model to help meet critical maternal health policy objectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kalter Henry D

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Maternal death reviews have been utilized in several countries as a means of identifying social and health care quality issues affecting maternal survival. From 2005 to 2009, a standardized community-based maternal death inquiry and response initiative was implemented in eight Indian states with the aim of addressing critical maternal health policy objectives. However, state-specific contextual factors strongly influenced the effort's success. This paper examines the impact and implications of the contextual factors. Methods We identified community, public health systems and governance related contextual factors thought to affect the implementation, utilization and up-scaling of the death inquiry process. Then, according to selected indicators, we documented the contextual factors' presence and their impact on the process' success in helping meet critical maternal health policy objectives in four districts of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal. Based on this assessment, we propose an optimal model for conducting community-based maternal death inquiries in India and similar settings. Results The death inquiry process led to increases in maternal death notification and investigation whether civil society or government took charge of these tasks, stimulated sharing of the findings in multiple settings and contributed to the development of numerous evidence-based local, district and statewide maternal health interventions. NGO inputs were essential where communities, public health systems and governance were weak and boosted effectiveness in stronger settings. Public health systems participation was enabled by responsive and accountable governance. Communities participated most successfully through India's established local governance Panchayat Raj Institutions. In one instance this led to the development of a multi-faceted intervention well-integrated at multiple levels. Conclusions The impact of several contextual

  1. Maternal death inquiry and response in India--the impact of contextual factors on defining an optimal model to help meet critical maternal health policy objectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalter, Henry D; Mohan, Pavitra; Mishra, Archana; Gaonkar, Narayan; Biswas, Akhil B; Balakrishnan, Sudha; Arya, Gaurav; Babille, Marzio

    2011-11-30

    Maternal death reviews have been utilized in several countries as a means of identifying social and health care quality issues affecting maternal survival. From 2005 to 2009, a standardized community-based maternal death inquiry and response initiative was implemented in eight Indian states with the aim of addressing critical maternal health policy objectives. However, state-specific contextual factors strongly influenced the effort's success. This paper examines the impact and implications of the contextual factors. We identified community, public health systems and governance related contextual factors thought to affect the implementation, utilization and up-scaling of the death inquiry process. Then, according to selected indicators, we documented the contextual factors' presence and their impact on the process' success in helping meet critical maternal health policy objectives in four districts of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal. Based on this assessment, we propose an optimal model for conducting community-based maternal death inquiries in India and similar settings. The death inquiry process led to increases in maternal death notification and investigation whether civil society or government took charge of these tasks, stimulated sharing of the findings in multiple settings and contributed to the development of numerous evidence-based local, district and statewide maternal health interventions. NGO inputs were essential where communities, public health systems and governance were weak and boosted effectiveness in stronger settings. Public health systems participation was enabled by responsive and accountable governance. Communities participated most successfully through India's established local governance Panchayat Raj Institutions. In one instance this led to the development of a multi-faceted intervention well-integrated at multiple levels. The impact of several contextual factors on the death inquiry process could be discerned, and suggested an

  2. Employing a CGE model in analysing the environmental and economy-wide impacts of CO2 emission abatement policies in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yahoo, Masoud; Othman, Jamal

    2017-04-15

    The impact of global warming has received much international attention in recent decades. To meet climate-change mitigation targets, environmental policy instruments have been designed to transform the way goods and services are produced as well as alter consumption patterns. The government of Malaysia is strongly committed to reducing CO 2 gas emissions as a proportion of GDP by 40% from 2005 levels by the year 2020. This study evaluates the economy-wide impacts of implementing two different types of CO 2 emission abatement policies in Malaysia using market-based (imposing a carbon tax) and command-and-control mechanism (sectoral emission standards). The policy simulations conducted involve the removal of the subsidy on petroleum products by the government. A carbon emission tax in conjunction with the revenue neutrality assumption is seen to be more effective than a command-and-control policy as it provides a double dividend. This is apparent as changes in consumption patterns lead to welfare enhancements while contributing to reductions in CO 2 emissions. The simulation results show that the production of renewable energies is stepped up when the imposition of carbon tax and removal of the subsidy is augmented by revenue recycling. This study provides an economy-wide assessment that compares two important tools for assisting environment policy makers evaluate carbon emission abatement initiatives in Malaysia. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Economic Models as Devices of Policy Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lasse Folke

    2013-01-01

    Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role...... the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept...

  4. Preferential treatment and exemption policy impacts energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doelle, R.R.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on the preferential treatment and exemption policy of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) for State and State Agencies which creates an anticompetitive and restraint of trade attitude in California against the development of alternative energy resources by the private sector when such development competes directly with state owned power generation under the State Water and Central Valley Water Projects, particularly in the area of water and power supply. The existing state water policy fails to address the effects of global warming and the adverse potential of the greenhouse effect in California, i.e. rising tides can seriously impact sea water intrusion problems of the San Francisco Bay-Delta Area by not only flooding agricultural lands in the Delta and Central Valley, but impacting the supply of water to large population areas in Southern and Northern California, especially when coupled with drought conditions. The California investigative research results herein reported demonstrates the fallacy of a preferential treatment and exemption policy in a free market economy, especially when such policy creates the potential for excessive state budget burdens upon the public in the face of questionable subsidies to special interest, i.e., allowing the resulting windfall profits to be passed onto major utilities and commingled at the expense of public interest so as to undermine the financial means for development of alternative energy resources. The cited Congressional and State Legislative Laws which provide the ways and means to resolve any energy or water resource problems are only as good as the enforcement and the commitment by the executive branch of government and the lawmakers to up-hold existing laws

  5. Assessing the impact of research on policy: A literature review

    OpenAIRE

    Annette Boaz; Siobhan Fitzpatrick; Ben Shaw

    2009-01-01

    Understanding the impact of research on policy is a vital, and often overlooked, element of policy-making. A systematic literature review was conducted to examine methods for evaluating the impact of research on policy outcomes. The review focused in particular on strategic policy levels (rather than implementation) and waste, environment and pollution policy. The review draws on an international literature, although it is limited to English language publications. The findings identify the di...

  6. Policy harmonized approach for the EU agricultural sector modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. SALPUTRA

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Policy harmonized (PH approach allows for the quantitative assessment of the impact of various elements of EU CAP direct support schemes, where the production effects of direct payments are accounted through reaction prices formed by producer price and policy price add-ons. Using the AGMEMOD model the impacts of two possible EU agricultural policy scenarios upon beef production have been analysed – full decoupling with a switch from historical to regional Single Payment scheme or alternatively with re-distribution of country direct payment envelopes via introduction of EU-wide flat area payment. The PH approach, by systematizing and harmonizing the management and use of policy data, ensures that projected differential policy impacts arising from changes in common EU policies reflect the likely actual differential impact as opposed to differences in how “common” policies are implemented within analytical models. In the second section of the paper the AGMEMOD model’s structure is explained. The policy harmonized evaluation method is presented in the third section. Results from an application of the PH approach are presented and discussed in the paper’s penultimate section, while section 5 concludes.;

  7. Maximizing the Policy Impacts of Public Engagement : A European Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Emery, Steven B.; Mulder, Henk A.J.; Frewer, Lynn J

    There is a lack of published evidence which demonstrates the impacts of public engagement (PE) in science and technology policy. This might represent the failure of PE to achieve policy impacts or indicate a lack of effective procedures for discerning the uptake by policy makers of PE-derived

  8. Research That Counts: OECD Statistics and "Policy Entrepreneurs" Impacting on Australian Adult Literacy and Numeracy Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Stephen; Yasukawa, Keiko

    2016-01-01

    This paper analyses research that has impacted on Australia's most recent national policy document on adult literacy and numeracy, the National Foundation Skills Strategy (NFSS). The paper draws in part on Lingard's 2013 paper, "The impact of research on education policy in an era of evidence-based policy", in which he outlines the…

  9. An endogenous policy model of hierarchical government

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mazza, I.; van Winden, F.

    2008-01-01

    Endogenous policy models usually neglect that government policies are frequently the result of decisions taken at different tiers by different agents, each enjoying some degree of autonomy. In this paper, policies are the outcome of the choices made by two agents within a hierarchy. A legislator

  10. IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION ON MACROECONOMIC POLICY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clementina IVAN-UNGUREANU

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization – the growing integration of economies and societies around the world – has been one of the most hotly-debated topics in international economics over the past few years. Rapid growth and poverty reduction in some countries that were poor 20 years ago have been positive aspects of globalization. But globalization has also generated significant international opposition to concerns about increased inequality and environmental degradation. There are many definitions of globalization. One of them could be: globalization is an ecosystem in which economic potential is no longer defined or contained by political and geographic boundaries. Economic activity has no bounds in a globalized economy. A globalized world is one where goods, services, financial capital, machinery, money, workers and ideas migrate to wherever they are most valued and can work together most efficiently, flexibly and securely. Where does economic policy come into play in this world? This paper presents some aspects of globalization and the impact on the new strategy of macroeconomics policy.

  11. The impact of electricity demand reduction policies on the EU-ETS: Modelling electricity and carbon prices and the effect on industrial competitiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thema, Johannes; Suerkemper, Felix; Grave, Katharina; Amelung, Adrian

    2013-01-01

    The European electricity market is linked to a carbon market with a fixed cap that limits greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, a number of energy efficiency policy instruments in the EU aim at reducing the electricity consumption. This article explores the interactions between the EU's carbon market on the one hand and instruments specifically targeted towards energy end-use efficiency on the other hand. Our theoretical analysis shows how electricity demand reduction triggered by energy efficiency policy instruments affects the emission trading scheme. Without adjustments of the fixed cap, decreasing electricity demand (relative to business-as-usual) reduces the carbon price without reducing total emissions. With lower carbon prices, costly low emission processes will be substituted by cheaper high emitting processes. Possible electricity and carbon price effects of electricity demand reduction scenarios under various carbon caps are quantified with a long-term electricity market simulation model. The results show that electricity efficiency policies allow for a significant reduction of the carbon cap. Compared to the 2005 emission level, 30% emission reductions can be achieved by 2020 within the emission trading scheme with similar or even lower costs for the industrial sector than were expected when the cap was initially set for a 21% emission reduction. - Highlights: • Modelling carbon prices, electricity generation costs, industrial competitiveness. • Calculating different electricity demand reduction and carbon cap scenarios. • No adjustments of the EU-ETS will lead to carbon prices of 0 in trading period III. • Effective EE policy maintains competitiveness while reaching ambitious climate goals. • EE policy allows for 30% less emissions by 2020 at costs to industry below ex-ante agreed-on levels

  12. The Lithuanian Government’s Policy of Regulatory Impact Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaroslav Dvorak

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper critically evaluates the development of the impact assessment instrument in Lithuania’s public administration and suggests improvements to its impact assessment system. Research question: What interesting conceptual imperatives have appeared in Lithuania’s investigation of the impact of regulatory policy? Methodology: This research study uses positivist methodology to analyse the problems that researchers have identified in Lithuania’s impact assessment. This investigation explains why certain problems have appeared, what has changed and what system changes can be identified traced. The study proceeds as follows. First, the research on impact assessment carried out in Lithuania is analysed. Second, regulations on impact assessment in Lithuania are investigated. A substitute for non-existent integrated theory is emphased by the logical structure of the EU administrative system imperatives, principles, and norms, whose modifications have become the basis of impact assessment system design in Lithuania. The present research combines, integrates and consolidates the theoretical and practical information on impact assessment into an explanatory scheme, which could be developed into a model in the future. Information from two qualitative interviews conducted in 2009 and 2010 was also used. Conclusions: The present research reveals that Lithuania’s regulatory impact assessment model is still being constructed and reconstructed towards evidence-based management. A model which revises the old impact stereotype has been designed, based on contemporary methodologies (cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses, consultations with the interested parties, a small but exhaustive legal initiatives impact assessment, and a centralised and institutional coordination of impact assessment. Practical consequences: The present research presents the issues which could be useful for the states that are starting to implement a

  13. Policies and procedures for considering environmental impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-03-20

    This order updates the FAA agency-wide policies and procedures for compliance with the : National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and implementing regulations issued by the Council : on Environmental Quality (40 CFR parts 1500-1508). The provisions o...

  14. Educational Productivity. The Impact of Policy Decisions on School Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southwest Educational Development Lab., Austin, TX.

    In order to elicit discussion on issues of concern to policy-makers at all levels of government, the Regional Planning and Service Project of the Southwest Educational Development Laboratory invited educational policy-makers from its region to participate in a symposium on the impact of policy decisions on school performance. Symposium…

  15. Developing policy analytics for public health strategy and decisions-the Sheffield alcohol policy model framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennan, Alan; Meier, Petra; Purshouse, Robin; Rafia, Rachid; Meng, Yang; Hill-Macmanus, Daniel

    This paper sets out the development of a methodological framework for detailed evaluation of public health strategies for alcohol harm reduction to meet UK policy-makers needs. Alcohol is known to cause substantial harms, and controlling its affordability and availability are effective policy options. Analysis and synthesis of a variety of public and commercial data sources is needed to evaluate impact on consumers, health services, crime, employers and industry, so a sound evaluation of impact is important. We discuss the iterative process to engage with stakeholders, identify evidence/data and develop analytic approaches and produce a final model structure. We set out a series of steps in modelling impact including: classification and definition of population subgroups of interest, identification and definition of harms and outcomes for inclusion, classification of modifiable components of risk and their baseline values, specification of the baseline position on policy variables especially prices, estimating effects of changing policy variables on risk factors including price elasticities, quantifying risk functions relating risk factors to harms including 47 health conditions, crimes, absenteeism and unemployment, and monetary valuation. The most difficult model structuring decisions are described, as well as the final results framework used to provide decision support to national level policymakers in the UK. In the discussion we explore issues around the relationship between modelling and policy debates, valuation and scope, limitations of evidence/data, how the framework can be adapted to other countries and decisions. We reflect on the approach taken and outline ongoing plans for further development.

  16. The Heterogeneous Impacts of Groundwater Management Policies in the Republican River Basin of Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hrozencik, R. A.; Manning, D. T.; Suter, J. F.; Goemans, C.; Bailey, R. T.

    2017-12-01

    Groundwater is a critical input to agricultural production across the globe. Current groundwater pumping rates frequently exceed recharge, often by a substantial amount, leading to groundwater depletion and potential declines in agricultural profits over time. As a result, many regions reliant on irrigated agriculture have proposed policies to manage groundwater use. Even when gains from aquifer management exist, there is little information about how policies affect individual producers sharing the resource. In this paper, we investigate the variability of groundwater management policy impacts across heterogeneous agricultural producers. To measure these impacts, we develop a hydroeconomic model that captures the important role of well capacity, productivity of water, and weather uncertainty. We use the model to simulate the impacts of groundwater management policies on producers in the High Plains aquifer of eastern Colorado and compare outcomes to a no-policy baseline. The management policies considered include a pumping fee, a quantity restriction, and an irrigated acreage fee. We find that well capacity and soil type affect policy impacts but in ways that can qualitatively differ across policy type. Model results have important implications for the distributional impacts and political acceptability of groundwater management policies.

  17. What shapes research impact on policy? Understanding research uptake in sexual and reproductive health policy processes in resource poor contexts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumner, Andy; Crichton, Jo; Theobald, Sally; Zulu, Eliya; Parkhurst, Justin

    2011-06-16

    Assessing the impact that research evidence has on policy is complex. It involves consideration of conceptual issues of what determines research impact and policy change. There are also a range of methodological issues relating to the question of attribution and the counter-factual. The dynamics of SRH, HIV and AIDS, like many policy arenas, are partly generic and partly issue- and context-specific. Against this background, this article reviews some of the main conceptualisations of research impact on policy, including generic determinants of research impact identified across a range of settings, as well as the specificities of SRH in particular. We find that there is scope for greater cross-fertilisation of concepts, models and experiences between public health researchers and political scientists working in international development and research impact evaluation. We identify aspects of the policy landscape and drivers of policy change commonly occurring across multiple sectors and studies to create a framework that researchers can use to examine the influences on research uptake in specific settings, in order to guide attempts to ensure uptake of their findings. This framework has the advantage that distinguishes between pre-existing factors influencing uptake and the ways in which researchers can actively influence the policy landscape and promote research uptake through their policy engagement actions and strategies. We apply this framework to examples from the case study papers in this supplement, with specific discussion about the dynamics of SRH policy processes in resource poor contexts. We conclude by highlighting the need for continued multi-sectoral work on understanding and measuring research uptake and for prospective approaches to receive greater attention from policy analysts.

  18. Financing investments in renewable energy: the impacts of policy design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiser, Ryan H.; Pickle, Steven J.

    1998-01-01

    The costs of electric power projects utilising renewable energy technologies (RETs) are highly sensitive to financing terms. Consequently, as the electricity industry is restructured and new renewables policies are created, it is important for policymakers to consider the impacts of renewables policy design on RET financing. This paper reviews the power plant financing process for renewable energy projects, estimates the impact of financing terms on levelised energy costs, and provides insights to policymakers on the important nexus between renewables policy design and financing. We review five case studies of renewable energy policies, and find that one of the key reasons that RET policies are not more effective is that project development and financing processes are frequently ignored or misunderstood when designing and implementing renewable energy policies. The case studies specifically show that policies that do no provide long-term stability or that have negative secondary impacts on investment decisions will increase financing costs, sometimes dramatically reducing the effectiveness of the program. Within U.S. electricity restructuring proceedings, new renewable energy policies are being created, and restructuring itself is changing the way RETs are financed. As these new policies are created and implemented, it is essential that policymakers acknowledge the financing difficulties faced by renewables developer and pay special attention to the impacts of renewables policy design on financing. As shown in this paper, a renewables policy that is carefully designed can reduce renewable energy costs dramatically by providing revenue certainty that will, in turn, reduce financing risk premiums. (Author)

  19. An evaluation model for low carbon island policy: The case of Taiwan's green transportation policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trappey, Amy J.C.; Trappey, Charles; Hsiao, C.T.; Ou, Jerry J.R.; Li, S.J.; Chen, Kevin W.P.

    2012-01-01

    Conserving energy and reducing carbon emissions have become the common responsibility of the international community. During the year 2010, the Taiwan government planned a four-year project budgeted at 300 million US dollars, called “The Penghu Low Carbon Island Development Project.” The policy objective is to use Penghu Island (population 85,000) as a test platform to evaluate new ways to conserve energy and reduce carbon emissions before attempting to replicate the policies on Taiwan Island. For Taiwan, a zero carbon island green transportation policy will regulate the total number of electric scooters, the total number of gasoline motorcycles, influence government subsidy incentives, and create the need for new motorcycle license issuing and control. These factors interact with each other to form a complex and dynamic system that impacts policy as well as the current way of life. In this study, a system dynamics approach is designed to construct a model for evaluating the green transportation policy on Penghu Island. Simulations are conducted to model green transportation system behavior and related policy effects in a smaller, controlled environment before creating policies for Taiwan Island that will impact the lives of over 23 million people. - Highlights: ► Provides an overview of Taiwan's Penghu Low Carbon Island Development Project. ► Develops a systems dynamics approach for green transportation policy assessment. ► Provides causal analysis of social, economic, and environmental factors. ► Demonstrates that the proposed policy cannot meet the CO 2 reduction goals. ► Alternative policies can be evaluated using the proposed approach.

  20. Global climate change policies. An analysis of CDM policies with an adapted GTAP model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Shunli

    2004-01-01

    In the context of the relationships between spatial-economic interaction and global warming just discussed, this study aims to analyze the Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) policies from an economic point of view. The research question of this study is formulated as follows: What will be the impacts of clirnate change policies, in particular CDM policies, on the economic performance of (groups of) countries in our global economic system, taking spatial interaction and general equilibrium effects into account? The purpose of addressing the issue of economic performance for (groups of) countries in the economic system is not just to identify winners and losers from international treaties. Rather, winning or losing may even determine the implementation and willingness of individual countries to participate in international environmental treaties, as illustrated by the recent withdrawal of the US from the Kyoto Protocol. By analyzing the economic impacts of an international environmental treaty for individual (groups of) countries, the framework that will be used to analyze this research question may be useful to determine the attractiveness of some global environmental policies, both for the world as a whole and for individual (groups of) countries. The research question will be answered by dividing it into six subquestions: (1) What is the position of CDM policies in the broad context of climate policy regimes?; (2) How should the relationship between human behavior and the physical environment be ideally modeled from an economic perspective? (3) How should the spatial dimension be incorporated in this framework of interaction between the economic and ecological system?; (4) How can climate change issues be incorporated in general equilibrium models in general, and in GTAP-E (extension of the Global Trade Analysis Project) in particular?; (5) How can CDM policies be implemented in the GTAP-E model?; and (6) What are the impacts of these climate change policies on

  1. EU climate policy up to 2020: An economic impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boehringer, Christoph, E-mail: boehringer@uni-oldenburg.d [Department of Economics, University of Oldenburg (Germany); Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Loeschel, Andreas [Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Moslener, Ulf [KfW Development Bank, Frankfurt (Germany); Rutherford, Thomas F. [Center for Energy Policy and Economy (CEPE), ETH Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2009-07-01

    In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost.

  2. EU climate policy up to 2020. An economic impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boehringer, Christoph [Department of Economics, University of Oldenburg (Germany); Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Loeschel, Andreas [Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Moslener, Ulf [KfW Development Bank, Frankfurt (Germany); Rutherford, Thomas F. [Center for Energy Policy and Economy (CEPE), ETH Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2009-07-01

    In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost. (author)

  3. EU climate policy up to 2020. An economic impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehringer, Christoph; Loeschel, Andreas; Moslener, Ulf; Rutherford, Thomas F.

    2009-01-01

    In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost. (author)

  4. Impacts of Climate Policy on Regional Air Quality, Health, and Air Quality Regulatory Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, T. M.; Selin, N. E.

    2011-12-01

    Both the changing climate, and the policy implemented to address climate change can impact regional air quality. We evaluate the impacts of potential selected climate policies on modeled regional air quality with respect to national pollution standards, human health and the sensitivity of health uncertainty ranges. To assess changes in air quality due to climate policy, we couple output from a regional computable general equilibrium economic model (the US Regional Energy Policy [USREP] model), with a regional air quality model (the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions [CAMx]). USREP uses economic variables to determine how potential future U.S. climate policy would change emissions of regional pollutants (CO, VOC, NOx, SO2, NH3, black carbon, and organic carbon) from ten emissions-heavy sectors of the economy (electricity, coal, gas, crude oil, refined oil, energy intensive industry, other industry, service, agriculture, and transportation [light duty and heavy duty]). Changes in emissions are then modeled using CAMx to determine the impact on air quality in several cities in the Northeast US. We first calculate the impact of climate policy by using regulatory procedures used to show attainment with National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone and particulate matter. Building on previous work, we compare those results with the calculated results and uncertainties associated with human health impacts due to climate policy. This work addresses a potential disconnect between NAAQS regulatory procedures and the cost/benefit analysis required for and by the Clean Air Act.

  5. Conceptual framework for describing selected urban and community impacts of federal energy policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morris, F.A,; Marcus, A.A.; Keller, D.

    1980-06-01

    A conceptual framework is presented for describing selected urban and community impacts of Federal energy policies. The framework depends on a simple causal model. The outputs of the model are impacts, changes in the state of the world of particular interest to policymakers. At any given time, a set of determinants account for the state of the world with respect to an impact category. Application of the model to a particular impact category requires: establishing a definition and measure for the impact category and identifying the determinants of these impacts. Analysis of the impact of a particular policy requires the following: identifying the policy and its effects (as estimated by others), isolating any effects that themselves constitute an urban and community impact, identifying any effects that change the value of determinants, and describing the impact with reference to the new values of determinants. This report provides a framework for these steps. Three impacts addressed are: neighborhood stability, housing availability, and quality and availability of public services. In each chapter, a definition and measure for the impact are specified; its principal determinants are identified; how the causal model can be used to estimate impacts by applying it to three illustrative Federal policies (domestic oil price decontrol, building energy performance standards, and increased Federal aid for mass transit) is demonstrated. (MCW)

  6. Climate change impacts on urban wildfire and flooding policy in Idaho: a comparative policy network perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindquist, E.; Pierce, J. L.

    2013-12-01

    Numerous frameworks and models exist for understanding the dynamics of the public policy process. A policy network approach considers how and why stakeholders and interests pay attention to and engage in policy problems, such as flood control or developing resilient and fire resistant landscapes. Variables considered in this approach include what the relationships are between these stakeholders, how they influence the process and outcomes, communication patterns within and between policy networks, and how networks change as a result of new information, science, or public interest and involvement with the problem. This approach is useful in understanding the creation of natural hazards policy as new information or situations, such as projected climate change impacts, influence and disrupt the policy process and networks. Two significant natural hazard policy networks exist in the semi-arid Treasure Valley region of Southwest Idaho, which includes the capitol city of Boise and the surrounding metropolitan area. Boise is situated along the Boise River and adjacent to steep foothills; this physiographic setting makes Boise vulnerable to both wildfires at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) and flooding. Both of these natural hazards have devastated the community in the past and floods and fires are projected to occur with more frequency in the future as a result of projected climate change impacts in the region. While both hazards are fairly well defined problems, there are stark differences lending themselves to comparisons across their respective networks. The WUI wildfire network is large and well developed, includes stakeholders from all levels of government, the private sector and property owner organizations, has well defined objectives, and conducts promotional and educational activities as part of its interaction with the public in order to increase awareness and garner support for its policies. The flood control policy network, however, is less defined

  7. Agri‐environmental Policies to Meet Consumer Preferences in Japan: An Economic‐Biophysical Model Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetsuya Uetake

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Promoting environmentally friendly farming products is crucial to meeting consumer demand. Although governments implement policy measures to improve the environmental performance of the agriculture sector, theirimpacts are difficult to assess. This study analyses the performance of agri‐environmental policies in Japan, by using the OECD’s policy impact model and reference level framework. In particular, it identifies the environmental impacts of three simulated agri‐environmental policies based on farms’ characteristics. The results suggest that a policy mix of regulation and an incentive payment would reduce environmental impacts, suggesting that targeted approaches could improve the cost‐effectiveness of agri‐environmental policies.

  8. Modelling skylarks (Alauda arvensis) to predict impacts of changes in land management and policy: development and testing of an agent-based model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Topping, Christopher John; Odderskær, Peter; Kahlert, Johnny Abildgaard

    2013-01-01

    of distribution and density, reproductive performance and seasonal changes in territory numbers. Data to support this was collected over a 13-year period and comprised detailed field observations of breeding birds and intensive surveys. The model was able to recreate the real world data patterns accurately......; it was also able to simultaneously fit a number of other secondary system properties which were not formally a part of the testing procedure. The correspondence of model output to real world data and sensitivity analysis are presented and discussed, and the model’s description is provided in ODdox format (a...

  9. IMPACT OF ROMANIAN HIGHER EDUCATION FUNDING POLICY ON UNIVERSITY EFFICIENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CRETAN Georgiana Camelia

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The issues of higher education funding policy and university operating efficiency are hot points on the actual public agenda worldwide as the pressures exercised upon the public resources increased, especially in the aftermath of the last economic crisis. Concerned with the improvement of the funding mechanism through which government allocates the public funds in order to meet the national core objectives within the area of higher education, the policy makers adjusted the funding policy by diversifying the criteria used in distributing the funds to public universities. Thus, the aim of this research is to underline both the impact and the consequences the public funding patterns of higher education have on the relative efficiency of public funded higher education institutions, across time. Moreover, the research conducted aims to determine whether the changes occurred within the Romanian public funding methodology of higher education institutions improved the relative efficiency scores of public funded universities, before and after the economic crisis of 2008. Thus, on one hand we have underlined the changes brought to the Romanian public funding mechanism of higher education during the years of 2007, 2009 and 2010 compared to the year of 2006, using the content analysis, and on the other hand we assessed and compared the relative efficiency scores of each selected public funded university using a multiple input - multiple output linear programming model, by employing the Data Envelopment Analysis technique. The findings of the research undertaken emphasized that a more performance oriented funding mechanism improves the efficiency scores of public universities. The results of the research undertaken could be used either by the policy makers within the area of higher education or by the administrative management of public universities in order to correlate the funding with the results obtained and/or the objectives assumed by both the

  10. Impact of EU agricultural policy on developing countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boysen, Ole; Jensen, Hans Grinsted; Matthews, Alan

    2016-01-01

    Despite substantial reforms, the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is still criticised for its detrimental effects on developing countries. This paper provides updated evidence on the impact of the CAP on one developing country, Uganda. It goes beyond estimating macro-level economic effects...... by analysing the impacts on poverty. The policy simulation results show that eliminating EU agricultural support would have marginal but nonetheless positive impacts on the Ugandan economy and its poverty indicators. From the perspective of the EU’s commitment to policy coherence for development, this supports...... the view that further reducing EU Agricultural support would be positive for development....

  11. Impact of EU agricultural policy on developing countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boysen, Ole; Jensen, Hans Grinsted; Matthews, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Despite substantial reforms, the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is still criticised for its detrimental effects on developing countries. This paper provides updated evidence on the impact of the CAP on one developing country, Uganda. It goes beyond estimating macro-level economic effects...... by analysing the impacts on poverty. The policy simulation results show that eliminating EU agricultural support would have marginal but nonetheless positive impacts on the Ugandan economy and its poverty indicators. From the perspective of the EU’s commitment to policy coherence for development, this supports...... the view that further reducing EU Agricultural support would be positive for development....

  12. THE SHEFFIELD ALCOHOL POLICY MODEL - A MATHEMATICAL DESCRIPTION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennan, Alan; Meier, Petra; Purshouse, Robin; Rafia, Rachid; Meng, Yang; Hill-Macmanus, Daniel; Angus, Colin; Holmes, John

    2014-09-30

    This methodology paper sets out a mathematical description of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 2.0, a model to evaluate public health strategies for alcohol harm reduction in the UK. Policies that can be appraised include a minimum price per unit of alcohol, restrictions on price discounting, and broader public health measures. The model estimates the impact on consumers, health services, crime, employers, retailers and government tax revenues. The synthesis of public and commercial data sources to inform the model structure is described. A detailed algebraic description of the model is provided. This involves quantifying baseline levels of alcohol purchasing and consumption by age and gender subgroups, estimating the impact of policies on consumption, for example, using evidence on price elasticities of demand for alcohol, quantification of risk functions relating alcohol consumption to harms including 47 health conditions, crimes, absenteeism and unemployment, and finally monetary valuation of the consequences. The results framework, shown for a minimum price per unit of alcohol, has been used to provide policy appraisals for the UK government policy-makers. In discussion and online appendix, we explore issues around valuation and scope, limitations of evidence/data, how the framework can be adapted to other countries and decisions, and ongoing plans for further development. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Policy modeling for industrial energy use

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worrell, Ernst; Park, Hi-Chun; Lee, Sang-Gon; Jung, Yonghun; Kato, Hiroyuki; Ramesohl, Stephan; Boyd, Gale; Eichhammer, Wolfgang; Nyboer, John; Jaccard, Mark; Nordqvist, Joakim; Boyd, Christopher; Klee, Howard; Anglani, Norma; Biermans, Gijs

    2003-03-01

    The international workshop on Policy Modeling for Industrial Energy Use was jointly organized by EETA (Professional Network for Engineering Economic Technology Analysis) and INEDIS (International Network for Energy Demand Analysis in the Industrial Sector). The workshop has helped to layout the needs and challenges to include policy more explicitly in energy-efficiency modeling. The current state-of-the-art models have a proven track record in forecasting future trends under conditions similar to those faced in the recent past. However, the future of energy policy in a climate-restrained world is likely to demand different and additional services to be provided by energy modelers. In this workshop some of the international models used to make energy consumption forecasts have been discussed as well as innovations to enable the modeling of policy scenarios. This was followed by the discussion of future challenges, new insights in the data needed to determine the inputs into energy model s, and methods to incorporate decision making and policy in the models. Based on the discussion the workshop participants came to the following conclusions and recommendations: Current energy models are already complex, and it is already difficult to collect the model inputs. Hence, new approaches should be transparent and not lead to extremely complex models that try to ''do everything''. The model structure will be determined by the questions that need to be answered. A good understanding of the decision making framework of policy makers and clear communication on the needs are essential to make any future energy modeling effort successful. There is a need to better understand the effects of policy on future energy use, emissions and the economy. To allow the inclusion of policy instruments in models, evaluation of programs and instruments is essential, and need to be included in the policy instrument design. Increased efforts are needed to better understand the

  14. The impacts of carbon tax and complementary policies on Chinese economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu Chuanyi; Tong Qing; Liu Xuemei

    2010-01-01

    Under the pressure of global warming, it is imperative for Chinese government to impose effective policy instruments to promote domestic energy saving and carbon emissions reduction. As one of the most important incentive-based policy instruments, carbon tax has sparked a lively controversy in China. This paper explores the impact of carbon tax on Chinese economy, as well as the cushion effects of the complementary policies, by constructing a dynamic recursive general equilibrium model. The model can describe the new equilibrium for each sequential independent period (e.g. one year) after carbon tax and the complementary policies are imposed, and thus describe the long-term impacts of the policies. The simulation results show that carbon tax is an effective policy tool because it can reduce carbon emissions with a little negative impact on economic growth; reducing indirect tax in the meantime of imposing carbon tax will help to reduce the negative impact of the tax on production and competitiveness; in addition, giving households subsidy in the meantime will help to stimulate household consumptions. Therefore, complementary policies used together with carbon tax will help to cushion the negative impacts of carbon tax on the economy. The dynamic CGE analysis shows the impact of carbon tax policy on the GDP is relatively small, but the reduction of carbon emission is relatively large. - Research highlights: →Carbon tax is an effective policy tool, which generates larger carbon emission reduction with a little negative impact on economic growth. →Carbon tax recycling to firms or households will help to reduce the impact of carbon tax on production or consumption. →The growth rate of carbon emission is lower than that of GDP because of technology change. →The impact of carbon tax on the GDP is relatively small, but the reduction of carbon emission is relatively large in China in the long run. →The marginal abatement cost of carbon dioxide will rise up

  15. The impact of school alcohol policy on student drinking

    OpenAIRE

    Evans-Whipp, Tracy J.; Plenty, Stephanie M.; Catalano, Richard F.; Herrenkohl, Todd I.; Toumbourou, John W.

    2013-01-01

    Although it is common for secondary schools to implement alcohol policies to reduce alcohol misuse, there has been little evaluation of the efficacy of these policies. The purpose of this study was to test the impact of the degree and type of alcohol policy enforcement in state representative samples of secondary students in Washington State, USA, and Victoria, Australia (n = 1848). Multivariate logistic regressions were used to examine the prospective association between student reports of s...

  16. Universal Basic Education Policy: Impact on Enrolment and Retention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iddrisu, Issah

    2016-01-01

    The universal basic education policy enshrined in the constitution of Ghana is aimed at making education accessible and affordable for all Ghanaian citizens. This paper sought to assess whether the universal basic education policy really have an impact on access at the basic level. The study was carried out on the premise that the universal basic…

  17. The Economic and Health Impacts of Legislative Fiscal Policies to ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This research will assess the impact of fiscal and legislative policies on the nutritional status of South Africans and recommend important policy changes. The most recent national ... 40%, and was steadily increasing. Obesity is a risk factor for many NCDs, including stroke, heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, and cancer.

  18. Impact of Attendance Policy on Adult College Learners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Tracinal S.

    2014-01-01

    This qualitative evaluation focused on the problem of student attrition at a northern California college, its attendance policy, the policy's impact on previous students' decisions to persist in school, and on administrators' attempts to increase retention. The purpose for this study was to evaluate the participants' perceptions about their…

  19. Decoupling among CSR policies, programs, and impacts : An empirical study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graafland, Johan; Smid, Hugo

    2016-01-01

    There are relatively few empirical studies on the impacts of corporate social responsibility (CSR) policies and programs. This article addresses the research gap by analyzing the incidence of, and the conditions that affect, decoupling (defined as divergence) among CSR policies, implementation of

  20. "Entrepreneurship policy: Trade-offs and impact in the EU"

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murdock, Karen

    2012-01-01

    Based on the notion that trade-offs in public policies form the basis of the separation of managed and entrepreneurial economies; this paper investigates the impact of policy on actual entrepreneurship activity in these two categories of economies. Using data from 19 European Union member countries......, the impact that policy trade-offs in the goal, target, location and system of finance have on entrepreneurship activity is measured using ordinary least squares regression. The results indicate that while business regulation negatively impact entrepreneurship activity, the location of policy does not show...... any measurable impact. They suggest the need for still more supportive institutions in the effort to develop entrepreneurship and create entrepreneurial economies and realize economic benefits....

  1. European Union dairy policy reform: impact and challenges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jongeneel, R.A.

    2011-01-01

    Recent Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms have affected dairy policy, including the milk quota system, and increased the market orientation of the sector. A modelling exercise, using the European Dairy Industry Model (EDIM), simulates an initial sharp decline in the EU milk price in response

  2. Modeling Hepatitis C treatment policy.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuypers, Marshall A.; Lambert, Gregory Joseph; Moore, Thomas W.; Glass, Robert John,; Finley, Patrick D.; Ross, David; Chartier, Maggie

    2013-09-01

    Chronic infection with Hepatitis C virus (HCV) results in cirrhosis, liver cancer and death. As the nations largest provider of care for HCV, US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) invests extensive resources in the diagnosis and treatment of the disease. This report documents modeling and analysis of HCV treatment dynamics performed for the VHA aimed at improving service delivery efficiency. System dynamics modeling of disease treatment demonstrated the benefits of early detection and the role of comorbidities in disease progress and patient mortality. Preliminary modeling showed that adherence to rigorous treatment protocols is a primary determinant of treatment success. In depth meta-analysis revealed correlations of adherence and various psycho-social factors. This initial meta-analysis indicates areas where substantial improvement in patient outcomes can potentially result from VA programs which incorporate these factors into their design.

  3. Amplifying Public Opinion: The Policy Impact of the U.S. Environmental Movement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agnone, Jon

    2007-01-01

    Time-series data from 1960-1998 is used to test hypotheses regarding the impact of protest and public opinion on the passage of U.S. environmental legislation. An amplification model of policy impact is introduced which posits that protest affects legislative action independent of public opinion as suggested by protest event theorists, whereas the…

  4. Towards policy relevant environmental modeling: contextual validity and pragmatic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Scott B.

    2000-01-01

    "What makes for a good model?" In various forms, this question is a question that, undoubtedly, many people, businesses, and institutions ponder with regards to their particular domain of modeling. One particular domain that is wrestling with this question is the multidisciplinary field of environmental modeling. Examples of environmental models range from models of contaminated ground water flow to the economic impact of natural disasters, such as earthquakes. One of the distinguishing claims of the field is the relevancy of environmental modeling to policy and environment-related decision-making in general. A pervasive view by both scientists and decision-makers is that a "good" model is one that is an accurate predictor. Thus, determining whether a model is "accurate" or "correct" is done by comparing model output to empirical observations. The expected outcome of this process, usually referred to as "validation" or "ground truthing," is a stamp on the model in question of "valid" or "not valid" that serves to indicate whether or not the model will be reliable before it is put into service in a decision-making context. In this paper, I begin by elaborating on the prevailing view of model validation and why this view must change. Drawing from concepts coming out of the studies of science and technology, I go on to propose a contextual view of validity that can overcome the problems associated with "ground truthing" models as an indicator of model goodness. The problem of how we talk about and determine model validity has much to do about how we perceive the utility of environmental models. In the remainder of the paper, I argue that we should adopt ideas of pragmatism in judging what makes for a good model and, in turn, developing good models. From such a perspective of model goodness, good environmental models should facilitate communication, convey—not bury or "eliminate"—uncertainties, and, thus, afford the active building of consensus decisions, instead

  5. Impact of policy game on insight and attitude to inter sectoral policy processes - EU country cases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lau, C.; Glümer, Charlotte; Spitters, Hilde

    Background A policy game is a structured simulated role-play dealing with highly complex decision-making in real life network settings. Its impact on health enhancing physical activity (HEPA) policy making is unexplored. We aim to explore if an internationally developed and pilot tested policy game...... a policy game at local level, with 6 months intervals, including 18–19 policy makers in each game. Data was collected using a structured questionnaire one week after implementation of the games. Participants were asked if the game had changed their insight or attitude. Results: Response rate was 83%, 89......% and 89% in NL, DK and RO respectively. Across countries the majority of participants, 60%, enhanced their nderstanding of the local HEPA policy process, the roles in the organization network, and how stakeholders can collaborate as result of the game. Most participants perceived change in insight...

  6. Evaluating the impacts of packaging policy in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rouw, M.; Worrell, E.

    2011-01-01

    Packaging materials are one of the largest contributors to municipal solid waste production. This paper evaluates the material impacts packaging policy in The Netherlands in the period 1986–2007. Five different voluntary agreements were implemented over this period to reduce the environmental impact

  7. Assessing the impacts of the changes in farming systems on food security and environmental sustainability of a Chinese rural region under different policy scenarios: an agent-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Chengcheng; Liu, Liming; Qi, Xiaoxing; Fu, Yonghu; Ye, Jinwei

    2017-07-01

    Since China has undergone a series of economic reforms and implemented opening up policies, its farming systems have significantly changed and have dramatically influenced the society, economy, and environment of China. To assess the comprehensive impacts of these changes on food security and environmental sustainability, and establish effective and environment-friendly subsidy policies, this research constructed an agent-based model (ABM). Daligang Town, which is located in the two-season rice region of Southern China, was selected as the case study site. Four different policy scenarios, i.e., "sharply increasing" (SI), "no-increase" (NI), "adjusted-method" (AM), and "trend" (TD) scenarios were investigated from 2015 to 2029. The validation result shows that the relative prediction errors between the simulated and actual values annually ranged from -20 to 20%, indicating the reliability of the proposed model. The scenario analysis revealed that the four scenarios generated different variations in cropping systems, rice yield, and fertilizer and pesticide inputs when the purchase price of rice and the non-agricultural income were assumed to increase annually by 0.1 RMB per kg and 10% per person, respectively. Among the four different policy scenarios in Daligang, the TD scenario was considered the best, because it had a relatively high rice yield, fairly minimal use of fertilizers and pesticides, and a lower level of subsidy. Despite its limitations, ABM could be considered a useful tool in analyzing, exploring, and discussing the comprehensive effects of the changes in farming system on food security and environmental sustainability.

  8. Water use impacts of future transport fuels: role of California's climate policy & National biofuel policies (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Yeh, S.; Mishra, G. S.; Tiedeman, K.; Yang, C.

    2013-12-01

    -hydrologic model EPIC to capture both green water (GW) and blue water (BW) use at a ~10 square km resolution among three scenarios: (1) a counterfactual scenario with no national biofuel policy, (2) current Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a proposed national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. Inputs to EPIC are spatially explicit: (a) cropping areas and yields as projected by a partial equilibrium economic model, (b) daily weather data, (c) soil properties (d) N fertilizer application, and (e) irrigation sources and volumes, by crop (Fig 4-5). We assess the differences among biofuel scenarios from 2007-2035 along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion on prime & marginal lands (Fig 6), (2) Crop-specific & overall annual/seasonal water balances including (2a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (2b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (2c) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm3 /acre. We found differential water use impacts among biofuel scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes (2) irrigation practices, (3) feedstock water use efficiency, and (4) the longer growing season and a predominance of rainfed cultivation of dedicated biofuel feedstocks. Fig 1-6 available at the linked urls.

  9. Modelling mobility aspects of security policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartel, Pieter H.; van Eck, Pascal; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    Security policies are rules that constrain the behaviour of a system. Different, largely unrelated sets of rules typically govern the physical and logical worlds. However, increased hardware and software mobility forces us to consider those rules in an integrated fashion. We present SPIN models of

  10. The Impact of Youth Unemployment Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Filges, Trine; Larsen, Birthe

    This paper examines the impact of unemployment, unemployment distribution, wages and welfare of Youth Unemployment Programmes (YUPs). This paper analyse what happens when the number of skilled workers increases relatively to the number of unskilled workers. The results depend on the productivity...

  11. Emerging energy technologies impacts and policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grubb, M.

    1992-01-01

    Technical change is a key factor in the energy world. Failure to recognize the potential for technical change, and the pace at which it may occur, has limited the accuracy and usefulness of past energy projections. conversely, programs to develop and deploy advanced energy technologies have often proved disappointing in the face of technical and commercial obstacles. This book examines important new and emerging energy technologies, and the mechanisms by which they may develop and enter the market. The project concentrates on the potential and probable role of selected energy technologies-which are in existence and likely to be of rapidly growing importance over the next decade-and the way in which market conditions and policy environment may affect their implementation

  12. Misconduct policies in high-impact biomedical journals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xavier Bosch

    Full Text Available It is not clear which research misconduct policies are adopted by biomedical journals. This study assessed the prevalence and content policies of the most influential biomedical journals on misconduct and procedures for handling and responding to allegations of misconduct.We conducted a cross-sectional study of misconduct policies of 399 high-impact biomedical journals in 27 biomedical categories of the Journal Citation Reports in December 2011. Journal websites were reviewed for information relevant to misconduct policies.Of 399 journals, 140 (35.1% provided explicit definitions of misconduct. Falsification was explicitly mentioned by 113 (28.3% journals, fabrication by 104 (26.1%, plagiarism by 224 (56.1%, duplication by 242 (60.7% and image manipulation by 154 (38.6%. Procedures for responding to misconduct were described in 179 (44.9% websites, including retraction, (30.8% and expression of concern (16.3%. Plagiarism-checking services were used by 112 (28.1% journals. The prevalences of all types of misconduct policies were higher in journals that endorsed any policy from editors' associations, Office of Research Integrity or professional societies compared to those that did not state adherence to these policy-producing bodies. Elsevier and Wiley-Blackwell had the most journals included (22.6% and 14.8%, respectively, with Wiley journals having greater a prevalence of misconduct definition and policies on falsification, fabrication and expression of concern and Elsevier of plagiarism-checking services.Only a third of top-ranking peer-reviewed journals had publicly-available definitions of misconduct and less than a half described procedures for handling allegations of misconduct. As endorsement of international policies from policy-producing bodies was positively associated with implementation of policies and procedures, journals and their publishers should standardize their policies globally in order to increase public trust in the

  13. Misconduct Policies in High-Impact Biomedical Journals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosch, Xavier; Hernández, Cristina; Pericas, Juan M.; Doti, Pamela; Marušić, Ana

    2012-01-01

    Background It is not clear which research misconduct policies are adopted by biomedical journals. This study assessed the prevalence and content policies of the most influential biomedical journals on misconduct and procedures for handling and responding to allegations of misconduct. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study of misconduct policies of 399 high-impact biomedical journals in 27 biomedical categories of the Journal Citation Reports in December 2011. Journal websites were reviewed for information relevant to misconduct policies. Results Of 399 journals, 140 (35.1%) provided explicit definitions of misconduct. Falsification was explicitly mentioned by 113 (28.3%) journals, fabrication by 104 (26.1%), plagiarism by 224 (56.1%), duplication by 242 (60.7%) and image manipulation by 154 (38.6%). Procedures for responding to misconduct were described in 179 (44.9%) websites, including retraction, (30.8%) and expression of concern (16.3%). Plagiarism-checking services were used by 112 (28.1%) journals. The prevalences of all types of misconduct policies were higher in journals that endorsed any policy from editors’ associations, Office of Research Integrity or professional societies compared to those that did not state adherence to these policy-producing bodies. Elsevier and Wiley-Blackwell had the most journals included (22.6% and 14.8%, respectively), with Wiley journals having greater a prevalence of misconduct definition and policies on falsification, fabrication and expression of concern and Elsevier of plagiarism-checking services. Conclusions Only a third of top-ranking peer-reviewed journals had publicly-available definitions of misconduct and less than a half described procedures for handling allegations of misconduct. As endorsement of international policies from policy-producing bodies was positively associated with implementation of policies and procedures, journals and their publishers should standardize their policies globally in order to

  14. The Impact of Trade Policy on Industry Concentration in Switzerland

    OpenAIRE

    Burghardt, Dirk

    2013-01-01

    This paper studies the impact of trade policy on industry concentration. Based on the Swiss Business Census, concentration levels for all four-digit manufacturing industries in Switzerland are calculated. Then the effect of a bilateral reduction in technical barriers to trade with the European Union is estimated. Adopting a difference-in-differences approach, it turns out that concentration in affected industries with low R&D intensity increased significantly following the policy change. This...

  15. The Economic and Health Impacts of Legislative Fiscal Policies to ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This research will assess the impact of fiscal and legislative policies on the nutritional status of South Africans and recommend important policy changes. The most recent national burden of ... Intervention intégrée quant au risque de diabète après le diabète gestationnel en Afrique du Sud. Les femmes ayant souffert de ...

  16. Geothermal Brief: Market and Policy Impacts Update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Speer, B.

    2012-10-01

    Utility-scale geothermal electricity generation plants have generally taken advantage of various government initiatives designed to stimulate private investment. This report investigates these initiatives to evaluate their impact on the associated cost of energy and the development of geothermal electric generating capacity using conventional hydrothermal technologies. We use the Cost of Renewable Energy Spreadsheet Tool (CREST) to analyze the effects of tax incentives on project economics. Incentives include the production tax credit, U.S. Department of Treasury cash grant, the investment tax credit, and accelerated depreciation schedules. The second half of the report discusses the impact of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Loan Guarantee Program on geothermal electric project deployment and possible reasons for a lack of guarantees for geothermal projects. For comparison, we examine the effectiveness of the 1970s DOE drilling support programs, including the original loan guarantee and industry-coupled cost share programs.

  17. The Mass Media Influence on the Impact of Health Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cătălin BABA

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available The theme of this study is a distinct examination of the issues regarding health policy, social representations and mass media. The analysis of the mass media influence on the impact of health policy leads to a portrayal of the related programs and the way they are received by citizens through mass media. Owing to the mass media quality to be an indicator of democracy it is very important to study its role in setting people daily agenda considering how it is able to maintain and create trends merely through recurrent messages. The issues frequently conveyed by media industry influences citizens’ interest with regard to community, producing effects on public policy. We must bear in mind that the more persistent in media they are, the more relevant for community this issues will be. The authors of the study put forward a method through which diverse programmes can be analysed. A comparative analysis of mass media and citizens’ social representations and its findings provide information about the influence between them. According to agenda setting theory and many international studies on health policy the authors conclude that mass media institution highly influence the impact of the health policy in health. Moreover, it is important to mention that the impact refers to all the stages of a policy-making: beginning with the problem identification and ending with the evaluation of the implementation process.

  18. Impact of Tobacco Control Policies on Adolescent Smoking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Summer Sherburne; Bach, Nicoline; Baum, Christopher F

    2016-06-01

    Our aims were to examine the impact of cigarette taxes and smoke-free legislation on current adolescent smoking and smoking frequency overall as well as test whether there were differential policy effects by age. Using data on 717,543 adolescents from 43 states in the 1999-2013 Youth Risk Behavior Surveys, we used difference-in-differences regression models to evaluate the impact of tobacco control policies on current adolescent smoking (yes/no) and, separately, smoking frequency (defined as 0, 1-5, 6-29, 30+ days per month). We tested an interaction between age and cigarette taxes and, separately, smoke-free legislation. From 1999 to 2013, adolescent smoking decreased from 35.3% to 13.9% and 41 of 43 states increased their cigarette tax in real terms by an average of 257%. By the end of the study period, 29 of 43 states had 100% smoke-free restaurant legislation. Although we found no overall effect of cigarette taxes on current smoking, there was a significant interaction by age. Among 14- and 15-year olds, every $1.00 cigarette tax increase was associated with a 2.2 and 1.6 percentage point reduction in smoking, respectively. The enactment of 100% smoke-free restaurant legislation was associated with an overall reduction in adolescent smoking by 1.1 percentage points and there were no differences by age. Cigarette taxes and smoke-free legislation were also associated with decreased smoking frequency. The youngest adolescents are the most price sensitive, and cigarette taxes continue to be a successful approach to reduce adolescent smoking. Smoke-free legislation may also be an effective strategy to reduce smoking among all adolescents. Copyright © 2016 The Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Cross-impacts analysis development and energy policy analysis applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roop, J.M.; Scheer, R.M.; Stacey, G.S.

    1986-12-01

    Purpose of this report is to describe the cross-impact analysis process and microcomputer software developed for the Office of Policy, Planning, and Analysis (PPA) of DOE. First introduced in 1968, cross-impact analysis is a technique that produces scenarios of future conditions and possibilities. Cross-impact analysis has several unique attributes that make it a tool worth examining, especially in the current climate when the outlook for the economy and several of the key energy markets is uncertain. Cross-impact analysis complements the econometric, engineering, systems dynamics, or trend approaches already in use at DOE. Cross-impact analysis produces self-consistent scenarios in the broadest sense and can include interaction between the economy, technology, society and the environment. Energy policy analyses that couple broad scenarios of the future with detailed forecasting can produce more powerful results than scenario analysis or forecasts can produce alone.

  20. Strategic Sequencing for State Distributed PV Policies: A Quantitative Analysis of Policy Impacts and Interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doris, E.; Krasko, V.A.

    2012-10-01

    State and local policymakers show increasing interest in spurring the development of customer-sited distributed generation (DG), in particular solar photovoltaic (PV) markets. Prompted by that interest, this analysis examines the use of state policy as a tool to support the development of a robust private investment market. This analysis builds on previous studies that focus on government subsidies to reduce installation costs of individual projects and provides an evaluation of the impacts of policies on stimulating private market development.

  1. European Cohesion Policy: A Proposed Evaluation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina Bouroşu (Costăchescu

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The current approach of European Cohesion Policy (ECP is intended to be a bridge between different fields of study, emphasizing the intersection between "the public policy cycle, theories of new institutionalism and the new public management”. ECP can be viewed as a focal point between putting into practice the principles of the new governance theory, theories of economic convergence and divergence and the governance of common goods. After a short introduction of defining the concepts used, the author discussed on the created image of ECP by applying three different theories, focusing on the structural funds implementation system (SFIS, directing the discussion on the evaluation part of this policy, by proposing a model of performance evaluation of the system, in order to outline key principles for creating effective management mechanisms of ECP.

  2. The impact of new member states on EU environmental policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mikael Skou

    1996-01-01

    The fourth enlargement of the EU, with Sweden, Finland and Austria, which took effect on 1 January 1995, is by many expected to have a positive impact on the environmental policy dimension of the Union, which has been under strain since the Rio Summit in 1992.......The fourth enlargement of the EU, with Sweden, Finland and Austria, which took effect on 1 January 1995, is by many expected to have a positive impact on the environmental policy dimension of the Union, which has been under strain since the Rio Summit in 1992....

  3. The impact of school alcohol policy on student drinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans-Whipp, Tracy J; Plenty, Stephanie M; Catalano, Richard F; Herrenkohl, Todd I; Toumbourou, John W

    2013-08-01

    Although it is common for secondary schools to implement alcohol policies to reduce alcohol misuse, there has been little evaluation of the efficacy of these policies. The purpose of this study was to test the impact of the degree and type of alcohol policy enforcement in state representative samples of secondary students in Washington State, USA, and Victoria, Australia (n = 1848). Multivariate logistic regressions were used to examine the prospective association between student reports of school alcohol policy in Grade 8 and self-reported alcohol use in Grade 9, controlling for age, gender, state, family socio-economic status and Grade 8 alcohol use. The likelihood of students drinking on school grounds was increased when students perceived lax policy enforcement. Student perceptions of harm minimization alcohol messages, abstinence alcohol messages and counselling for alcohol policy violators predicted reduced likelihood of binge drinking. Students perceiving harm minimization messages and counselling for alcohol policy violators had a reduced likelihood of experiencing alcohol-related harms. Perceptions of harsh penalties were unrelated to drinking behaviour. These results suggest that perceived policy enforcement may lessen drinking at school 1 year later and that harm minimization messages and counselling approaches may also lessen harmful drinking behaviours as harm minimization advocates suggest.

  4. The Development of a Multisource and a Systematized Database for Economic and Policy Impact Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ec. Filippo Oropallo

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available ISTAT is involved in various EU projects with the objective of "supporting the Lisbon objectives, EU governance and the process of national policy coverage with the best EU-wide and national policy impact and evaluation analyses". Existing knowledge on policy impact analyses is approximate. The "facts" on the impact of policies are charted only at the aggregate level and with a high degree of approximation. Macro indicators have well-known pitfalls and drawbacks. Understanding how policies affect economic performance and developing better indicators to gauge their effects is central to endow the EU with a set of efficient and fair policies. The gap in European knowledge and capacity for Policy Impact Analysis is patent. The DIECOFIS EU-FP5 project has taken up the challenge of reducing this gap in the field of taxation. Results have been quite encouraging and have open new vistas for future work. Particularly notable has been the development of a system of micro-founded indicators, based on factuals and counterfactuals, estimated through micro-simulation models. This has led to the current utilization of such a tool in the ex-ante microsimulation of the effects of several reforms of corporate taxation

  5. Impact of school peanut-free policies on epinephrine administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartnikas, Lisa M; Huffaker, Michelle F; Sheehan, William J; Kanchongkittiphon, Watcharoot; Petty, Carter R; Leibowitz, Robert; Hauptman, Marissa; Young, Michael C; Phipatanakul, Wanda

    2017-08-01

    Children with food allergies spend a large proportion of time in school but characteristics of allergic reactions in schools are not well studied. Some schools self-designate as peanut-free or have peanut-free areas, but the impact of policies on clinical outcomes has not been evaluated. We sought to determine the effect of peanut-free policies on rates of epinephrine administration for allergic reactions in Massachusetts public schools. In this retrospective study, we analyzed (1) rates of epinephrine administration in all Massachusetts public schools and (2) Massachusetts public school nurse survey reports of school peanut-free policies from 2006 to 2011 and whether schools self-designated as "peanut-free" based on policies. Rates of epinephrine administration were compared for schools with or without peanut-restrictive policies. The percentage of schools with peanut-restrictive policies did not change significantly in the study time frame. There was variability in policies used by schools self-designated as peanut-free. No policy was associated with complete absence of allergic reactions. Both self-designated peanut-free schools and schools banning peanuts from being served in school or brought from home reported allergic reactions to nuts. Policies restricting peanuts from home, served in schools, or having peanut-free classrooms did not affect epinephrine administration rates. Schools with peanut-free tables, compared to without, had lower rates of epinephrine administration (incidence rate per 10,000 students 0.2 and 0.6, respectively, P = .009). These data provide a basis for evidence-based school policies for children with food allergies. Further studies are required before decisions can be made regarding peanut-free policies in schools. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Administrator Perceptions of School Improvement Policies in a High-Impact Policy Setting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIO S. TORRES

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated school administrators’ perceptions of school improvement policies in a high-impact policy environment by measuring the impact of accountability, site-based management, professional development, and scheduling reform on the three dependent variables of a academic outcomes, b staff morale, and c parent and community involvement. Using a convenience sampling method, 49 public school principals from Texas participated and an online survey was constructed to gather both quantitative (i.e., Likert scale and qualitative (i.e., open ended response data. The findings clearly point to principals, regardless of geographical district type and grade level school type, viewing less controversial and more intrinsically oriented policies (i.e., site-based management and professional development as having a greater positive impact on outcomes as a whole than more radical alternatives (i.e., accountability and time and schedule reform. The evidence suggests that more aggressive school improvement policy approaches are likely failing to generate enough convincing outcomes to generate high commitment and confidence from school leaders. Further studies may look at the interaction of policy impact with minority student enrollments and with subgroup populations.

  7. Streamflow impacts of biofuel policy-driven landscape change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanal, Sami; Anex, Robert P; Anderson, Christopher J; Herzmann, Daryl E

    2014-01-01

    Likely changes in precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) resulting from policy-driven expansion of bioenergy crops in the United States are shown to create significant changes in streamflow volumes and increase water stress in the High Plains. Regional climate simulations for current and biofuel cropping system scenarios are evaluated using the same atmospheric forcing data over the period 1979-2004 using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model coupled to the NOAH land surface model. PET is projected to increase under the biofuel crop production scenario. The magnitude of the mean annual increase in PET is larger than the inter-annual variability of change in PET, indicating that PET increase is a forced response to the biofuel cropping system land use. Across the conterminous U.S., the change in mean streamflow volume under the biofuel scenario is estimated to range from negative 56% to positive 20% relative to a business-as-usual baseline scenario. In Kansas and Oklahoma, annual streamflow volume is reduced by an average of 20%, and this reduction in streamflow volume is due primarily to increased PET. Predicted increase in mean annual P under the biofuel crop production scenario is lower than its inter-annual variability, indicating that additional simulations would be necessary to determine conclusively whether predicted change in P is a response to biofuel crop production. Although estimated changes in streamflow volume include the influence of P change, sensitivity results show that PET change is the significantly dominant factor causing streamflow change. Higher PET and lower streamflow due to biofuel feedstock production are likely to increase water stress in the High Plains. When pursuing sustainable biofuels policy, decision-makers should consider the impacts of feedstock production on water scarcity.

  8. Streamflow impacts of biofuel policy-driven landscape change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sami Khanal

    Full Text Available Likely changes in precipitation (P and potential evapotranspiration (PET resulting from policy-driven expansion of bioenergy crops in the United States are shown to create significant changes in streamflow volumes and increase water stress in the High Plains. Regional climate simulations for current and biofuel cropping system scenarios are evaluated using the same atmospheric forcing data over the period 1979-2004 using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF model coupled to the NOAH land surface model. PET is projected to increase under the biofuel crop production scenario. The magnitude of the mean annual increase in PET is larger than the inter-annual variability of change in PET, indicating that PET increase is a forced response to the biofuel cropping system land use. Across the conterminous U.S., the change in mean streamflow volume under the biofuel scenario is estimated to range from negative 56% to positive 20% relative to a business-as-usual baseline scenario. In Kansas and Oklahoma, annual streamflow volume is reduced by an average of 20%, and this reduction in streamflow volume is due primarily to increased PET. Predicted increase in mean annual P under the biofuel crop production scenario is lower than its inter-annual variability, indicating that additional simulations would be necessary to determine conclusively whether predicted change in P is a response to biofuel crop production. Although estimated changes in streamflow volume include the influence of P change, sensitivity results show that PET change is the significantly dominant factor causing streamflow change. Higher PET and lower streamflow due to biofuel feedstock production are likely to increase water stress in the High Plains. When pursuing sustainable biofuels policy, decision-makers should consider the impacts of feedstock production on water scarcity.

  9. An Integrative Behavioral Model of Information Security Policy Compliance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang Hoon Kim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The authors found the behavioral factors that influence the organization members’ compliance with the information security policy in organizations on the basis of neutralization theory, Theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory. Depending on the theory of planned behavior, members’ attitudes towards compliance, as well as normative belief and self-efficacy, were believed to determine the intention to comply with the information security policy. Neutralization theory, a prominent theory in criminology, could be expected to provide the explanation for information system security policy violations. Based on the protection motivation theory, it was inferred that the expected efficacy could have an impact on intentions of compliance. By the above logical reasoning, the integrative behavioral model and eight hypotheses could be derived. Data were collected by conducting a survey; 194 out of 207 questionnaires were available. The test of the causal model was conducted by PLS. The reliability, validity, and model fit were found to be statistically significant. The results of the hypotheses tests showed that seven of the eight hypotheses were acceptable. The theoretical implications of this study are as follows: (1 the study is expected to play a role of the baseline for future research about organization members’ compliance with the information security policy, (2 the study attempted an interdisciplinary approach by combining psychology and information system security research, and (3 the study suggested concrete operational definitions of influencing factors for information security policy compliance through a comprehensive theoretical review. Also, the study has some practical implications. First, it can provide the guideline to support the successful execution of the strategic establishment for the implement of information system security policies in organizations. Second, it proves that the need of education and training

  10. An integrative behavioral model of information security policy compliance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sang Hoon; Yang, Kyung Hoon; Park, Sunyoung

    2014-01-01

    The authors found the behavioral factors that influence the organization members' compliance with the information security policy in organizations on the basis of neutralization theory, Theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory. Depending on the theory of planned behavior, members' attitudes towards compliance, as well as normative belief and self-efficacy, were believed to determine the intention to comply with the information security policy. Neutralization theory, a prominent theory in criminology, could be expected to provide the explanation for information system security policy violations. Based on the protection motivation theory, it was inferred that the expected efficacy could have an impact on intentions of compliance. By the above logical reasoning, the integrative behavioral model and eight hypotheses could be derived. Data were collected by conducting a survey; 194 out of 207 questionnaires were available. The test of the causal model was conducted by PLS. The reliability, validity, and model fit were found to be statistically significant. The results of the hypotheses tests showed that seven of the eight hypotheses were acceptable. The theoretical implications of this study are as follows: (1) the study is expected to play a role of the baseline for future research about organization members' compliance with the information security policy, (2) the study attempted an interdisciplinary approach by combining psychology and information system security research, and (3) the study suggested concrete operational definitions of influencing factors for information security policy compliance through a comprehensive theoretical review. Also, the study has some practical implications. First, it can provide the guideline to support the successful execution of the strategic establishment for the implement of information system security policies in organizations. Second, it proves that the need of education and training programs suppressing

  11. The economic impacts of emission reduction policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanson, D.A.

    1992-07-01

    Environmental expenditures, or environmental tax revenues, e.g., carbon taxes are potentially significant components of the US macroeconomy. This paper presents a simple model of the role of environmental abatement expenditures and/or emission taxes from the viewpoint of economic efficiency, welfare and potential macroeconomic effects.

  12. The economic impacts of emission reduction policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanson, D.A.

    1992-01-01

    Environmental expenditures, or environmental tax revenues, e.g., carbon taxes are potentially significant components of the US macroeconomy. This paper presents a simple model of the role of environmental abatement expenditures and/or emission taxes from the viewpoint of economic efficiency, welfare and potential macroeconomic effects.

  13. Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and objective With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project ‘European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast’ – http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Methods A model was built to assess policy scenarios’ impact on the pharmaceutical budgets of seven member states of the EU, namely France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. The following scenarios were tested: expanding the UK policies to EU, changing time to market access, modifying generic price and penetration, shifting the distribution chain of biosimilars (retail/hospital). Results Applying the UK policy resulted in dramatic savings for Germany (10 times the base case forecast) and substantial additional savings for France and Portugal (2 and 4 times the base case forecast, respectively). Delaying time to market was found be to a very powerful tool to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Applying the EU transparency directive (6-month process for pricing and reimbursement) increased pharmaceutical expenditure for all countries (from 1.1 to 4 times the base case forecast), except in Germany (additional savings). Decreasing the price of generics and boosting the penetration rate, as well as shifting distribution of biosimilars through hospital chain were also key methods to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Change in the level of reimbursement rate to 100% in all countries led to an important increase in the pharmaceutical budget. Conclusions Forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure is a critical exercise to inform policy decision makers. The most important leverages identified by the model on pharmaceutical budget were driven by generic and biosimilar prices, penetration rate

  14. A Simple Forecasting Model Linking Macroeconomic Policy to Industrial Employment Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malley, James R.; Hady, Thomas F.

    A study detailed further a model linking monetary and fiscal policy to industrial employment in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas of four United States regions. The model was used to simulate the impacts on area and regional employment of three events in the economy: changing real gross national product (GNP) via monetary policy, holding the…

  15. Bridging Research, Practice, and Policy: The "Evidence Academy" Conference Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohweder, Catherine L; Laping, Jane L; Diehl, Sandra J; Moore, Alexis A; Isler, Malika Roman; Scott, Jennifer Elissa; Enga, Zoe Kaori; Black, Molly C; Dave, Gaurav; Corbie-Smith, Giselle; Melvin, Cathy L

    2016-01-01

    Innovative models to facilitate more rapid uptake of research findings into practice are urgently needed. Community members who engage in research can accelerate this process by acting as adoption agents. We implemented an Evidence Academy conference model bringing together researchers, health care professionals, advocates, and policy makers across North Carolina to discuss high-impact, life-saving study results. The overall goal is to develop dissemination and implementation strategies for translating evidence into practice and policy. Each 1-day, single-theme, regional meeting focuses on a leading community-identified health priority. The model capitalizes on the power of diverse local networks to encourage broad, common awareness of new research findings. Furthermore, it emphasizes critical reflection and active group discussion on how to incorporate new evidence within and across organizations, health care systems, and communities. During the concluding session, participants are asked to articulate action plans relevant to their individual interests, work setting, or area of expertise.

  16. Impact of entrepreneurship policies on opportunity to startup

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Davari

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available During the previous decades, policy makers have formulated policies for developing entrepreneurship in different countries in order to decrease unemployment and poverty toward sustainable development. Some of these policies include encouraging people to be an entrepreneur, opportunity creation, educating new skills to entrepreneurs and so on. In recent years an appropriate context has been formed for entrepreneurship development in Iran and some programs have been executed. Therefore, formulating appropriate frameworks to guide Iranian government in this way is a necessity. This paper evaluates the impact of entrepreneurship policies on opportunity to startup in Iran. The results of path analysis indicate that supportive financial and non-financial actions influence positively on opportunity to startup. In addition, education and culture also influence positively on opportunity to startup. Finally, legislation also positively influences on opportunity to startup.

  17. Impact assessment and policy learning in the European Commission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruddy, Thomas F.; Hilty, Lorenz M.

    2008-01-01

    Governance for sustainable development requires policy coherence and Environmental Policy Integration, which are being hindered by difficulties coordinating the two separate impact assessment processes being conducted in the European Commission. One of them, the Commission-wide Impact Assessment process, looks primarily at EU-internal impacts, whereas the other one, Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) in DG Trade, looks outward to other countries and intergovernmental organizations. Ideally, the two processes should complement one another, especially as the two are set to continue being done in parallel. The paper uses a case study of the reform of the European sugar regime under a World Trade Organization ruling to demonstrate how the two impact assessment processes could better complement one another. Feedback from the experience had with existing trade agreements could then promote policy learning and inform the negotiations on new agreements. The number of new bilateral and Regional Trade Agreements is expected to continue rising, thus increasing the importance of the Commission-wide Impact Assessment process required for them

  18. Impact of Different Carbon Policies on City Logistics Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Jianhua

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A programming model for a four-layer urban logistics distribution network is constructed and revised based on three types of carbon emissions policies such as Carbon tax, carbon emissions Cap, Carbon Trade. Effects of different policies on logistics costs and carbon emissions are analyzed based on a spatial Logistics Infrastructure layout of Beijing. Research findings are as follows: First, based on low-carbon policies, the logistics costs and carbon emissions can be changed by different modes of transport in a certain extent; second, only when carbon taxes and carbon trading prices are higher, carbon taxes and carbon trading policies can reduce carbon emissions while not significantly increase logistics costs at the same time, and more effectively achieve carbon reduction targets than use carbon cap policy.

  19. Modelling climate change policies : an application of ENERGY2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timilsina, G.; Bhargava, A.; Backus, G.

    2005-01-01

    Researches and policy-makers are increasingly analyzing the economic impacts of the Kyoto Protocol at national, regional and global levels. The analyses are generally based on numerical models integrating energy, environment and the economy. Most models range from partial equilibrium types to complex multi-sector general equilibrium models, and typically represent the energy sector at an aggregate level, which limits their ability to reflect details of different sectors. In Canada, a model called ENERGY2020 has been widely used by the federal and provincial governments to analyze the sectoral and provincial impacts of implementing the Kyoto Protocol. ENERGY2020 uses stocks and flows simulation that captures the physical aspects of the processes utilizing energy, as well as the qualitative choice theory which captures human behavioural aspects. The model also has a database containing 20 years of time-series on all economic, environmental and energy variables, enabling the model to derive most parameters endogenously through econometric estimations. It has the capacity to analyze consumer and business responses over a wide range of policy initiatives such as energy environment taxes, regulatory standards for buildings, equipment and motor vehicles, grants, rebates and subsidy initiatives, consumer awareness initiatives, technology improvements, moratoriums and mandated cut-backs. It is also capable of producing long-term energy market forecasts as well as analyzing the impacts of policies in the markets. It was concluded that the model's application will serve as a useful analytical tool for a range of issues, and may be useful to developing countries and economies in transition. 6 refs., 5 figs

  20. Influencing policy through impact evaluation in Latin America and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    And there are growing concerns about the ethics of implementing some types of IE. This paper explores recent IE practice in Latin America and reviews more than 300 impact evaluations in 21 countries. It examines the policy issues covered and methodologies used; the research actors and implementing agencies involved; ...

  1. Influencing policy through impact evaluation in Latin America and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    IDRC's Supporting Inclusive Growth (SIG) program supports the strengthening of research capacity, to generate and use evidence that contributes to informed public dialogue and policymaking. Impact Evaluation for Policy Making: A Close Look at Latin American Countries with Weaker Research Capacities, the fourth title ...

  2. The Impact of Privatization and Commercialization Policy on the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study examined the impact of privatization and commercialization policy on the attainment of millennium development goals in the Nigerian economy. To achieve this objective, an econometric analysis of ordinary least squares regression method was used. The results showed that the privatization and ...

  3. The impact of the member states on EU environmental policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mikael Skou

    1996-01-01

    This paper explores the impact of the fourth enlargement (with Sweden, Austria and Finland) on the European Union's environmental policy. This is done by comparing the priorities and strategies of the newcomers with those of the former environmental pioneers (Germany, Netherlands and Denmark)....

  4. Computer-assisted health impact assessment for intersectoral health policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mooy, J. M.; Gunning-Schepers, L. J.

    2001-01-01

    Intersectoral health policy implies negotiations with politicians outside the health sector. Health politicians have a stronger position if they can quantify health impact. In this Dutch case-study we used a computer simulation approach to answer the following questions: Which anti-tobacco

  5. The impact of monetary policy on financing of Czech firms

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Aliyev, Ruslan; Hájková, D.; Kubicová, I.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 65, č. 6 (2015), s. 455-476 ISSN 0015-1920 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : monetary policy transmission * broad credit view * external finance Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.449, year: 2015 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/mag/article/show/id/1343

  6. Impact of Scheduling Policies on Control System Performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Ravn, Anders Peter; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard

    2003-01-01

    It is well known that jitter has an impact on control system performance, and this is often used as an argument for static scheduling policies, e.g. a time triggered architecture. However, it is only completion jitter that seriously disturbs standard linear control algorithms in a way similar to ...

  7. Wellbeing Impacts of City Policies for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiscock, Rosemary; Mudu, Pierpaolo; Braubach, Matthias; Martuzzi, Marco; Perez, Laura; Sabel, Clive

    2014-01-01

    To mitigate climate change, city authorities are developing policies in areas such as transportation, housing and energy use, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to their effects on greenhouse gas emissions, these policies are likely to have consequences for the wellbeing of their populations for example through changes in opportunities to take physical exercise. In order to explore the potential consequences for wellbeing, we first explore what ‘wellbeing’ is and how it can be operationalized for urban planners. In this paper, we illustrate how wellbeing can be divided into objective and subjective aspects which can be measured quantitatively; our review of measures informs the development of a theoretical model linking wellbeing to policies which cities use to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, we discuss the extent to which the links proposed in the conceptual model are supported by the literature and how cities can assess wellbeing implications of policies. PMID:25464129

  8. Wellbeing Impacts of City Policies for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosemary Hiscock

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available To mitigate climate change, city authorities are developing policies in areas such as transportation, housing and energy use, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to their effects on greenhouse gas emissions, these policies are likely to have consequences for the wellbeing of their populations for example through changes in opportunities to take physical exercise. In order to explore the potential consequences for wellbeing, we first explore what ‘wellbeing’ is and how it can be operationalised for urban planners. In this paper, we illustrate how wellbeing can be divided into objective and subjective aspects which can be measured quantitatively; our review of measures informs the development of a theoretical model linking wellbeing to policies which cities use to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, we discuss the extent to which the links proposed in the conceptual model are supported by the literature and how cities can assess wellbeing implications of policies.

  9. Wellbeing impacts of city policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiscock, Rosemary; Mudu, Pierpaolo; Braubach, Matthias; Martuzzi, Marco; Perez, Laura; Sabel, Clive

    2014-11-28

    To mitigate climate change, city authorities are developing policies in areas such as transportation, housing and energy use, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to their effects on greenhouse gas emissions, these policies are likely to have consequences for the wellbeing of their populations for example through changes in opportunities to take physical exercise. In order to explore the potential consequences for wellbeing, we first explore what 'wellbeing' is and how it can be operationalised for urban planners. In this paper, we illustrate how wellbeing can be divided into objective and subjective aspects which can be measured quantitatively; our review of measures informs the development of a theoretical model linking wellbeing to policies which cities use to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, we discuss the extent to which the links proposed in the conceptual model are supported by the literature and how cities can assess wellbeing implications of policies.

  10. Anticipating the uncertain: economic modeling and climate change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Svenn

    2012-11-01

    With this thesis I wish to contribute to the understanding of how uncertainty and the anticipation of future events by economic actors affect climate policies. The thesis consists of four papers. Two papers are analytical models which explicitly consider that emissions are caused by extracting scarce fossil fuels which in the future must be replaced by clean technologies. The other two are so called numerical integrated assessment models. Such models represent the world economy, the climate system and the interactions between those two quantitatively, complementing more abstract theoretical work. Should policy makers discriminate between subsidizing renewable energy sources such as wind or solar power, and technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS)? Focusing only on the dynamic supply of fossil fuels and hence Co{sub 2}, we find here that cheaper future renewables cause extraction to speed up, lower costs of CCS may delay it. CCS hence may dampen the dynamic inefficiency caused by the absence of comprehensive climate policies today. Does it matter whether uncertainty about future damage assessment is due to scientific complexities or stems from the political process? In paper two, I find that political and scientific uncertainties have opposing effects on the incentives to investment in renewables and the extraction of fossil fuels: The prospect of scientific learning about the climate system increases investment incentives and, ceteris paribus, slows extraction down; uncertainty about future political constellations does the opposite. The optimal carbon tax under scientific uncertainty equals expected marginal damages, whereas political uncertainty demands a tax below marginal damages that decreases over time. Does uncertainty about economic growth impact optimal climate policy today? Here we are the first to consistently analyze how uncertainty about future economic growth affects optimal emission reductions and the optimal social cost of carbon. We

  11. Evolutions in food marketing, quantifying the impact, and policy implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cairns, Georgina

    2013-03-01

    A case study on interactive digital marketing examined the adequacy of extant policy controls and their underpinning paradigms to constrain the effects of this rapidly emerging practice. Findings were interactive digital marketing is expanding the strategies available to promote products, brands and consumer behaviours. It facilitates relational marketing; the collection of personal data for marketing; integration of the marketing mix, and provides a platform for consumers to engage in the co-creation of marketing communications. The paradigmatic logic of current policies to constrain youth-oriented food marketing does not address the interactive nature of digital marketing. The evidence base on the effects of HFSS marketing and policy interventions is based on conceptualizations of marketing as a force promoting transactions rather than interactions. Digital technologies are generating rich consumer data. Interactive digital technologies increase the complexity of the task of quantifying the impact of marketing. The rapidity of its uptake also increases urgency of need to identify appropriate effects measures. Independent analysis of commercial consumer data (appropriately transformed to protect commercial confidentiality and personal privacy) would provide evidence sources for policy on the impacts of commercial food and beverage marketing and policy controls. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. [Health impact assessment: one way to introduce health in all policies. SESPAS Report 2010].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esnaola, Santiago; Bacigalupe, Amaia; Sanz, Elvira; Aldasoro, Elena; Calderón, Carlos; Zuazagoitia, Juan; Cambra, Koldo

    2010-12-01

    Health impact assessment is a predictive tool to support decisions in policy-making. Current experience shows that health impact assessment could play an important role in the development of the Health in All Policies strategy. This strategy has been extensively used in other European countries and in a wide range of policy and administrative sectors. Health impact assessment is hardly ever mandatory and is frequently carried out separately from other impact assessments. The use of this process in Spain is relatively new, limited and fundamentally based on local level experiences and the screening of regional interventions. The current normative and organizational reform of public health in Spain provides an excellent opportunity to promote the development of health impact assessment. Some of the barriers to the development of this process are related to the biomedical model of health prevailing among health professionals, politicians, and the general population, political disaffection, lack of assessment culture, underdevelopment of community participation processes, and insufficient intersectoral work. Health impact assessment provides an opportunity to move toward improving the population's health and reducing inequalities in health. Consequently, political commitment, as well as investment in education and research, is needed to introduce and develop health impact assessment in all administrative settings and policy sectors. Copyright © 2010 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  13. The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

    2003-01-01

    Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

  14. Sources of change in foreign policy. A review of foreign policy models for developing countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alba E. Gámez

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available The study of what could be called the reorientation of State foreign policy is not a new phenomenon. Changes in alliances, economic partners and attitudes in the face of international issues have been reflected in myriad texts. Nevertheless, few theoretical frameworksdeal with this issue as an area of study in and of itself. Overcoming this situation would contribute to identifying and comparing the changes in attitude and discourse in the relations between countries, especially in the case of developing countries, and, by extension, thesources of these changes. This article reviews the different models for the analysis of foreign policy, using the conceptual framework of Hermann (1990 as its starting point. This framework suggests the existence of four graded levels of change which allow for studying forms of change which are subtle but important in foreign policy; it also offers a reasoned analysis for testing the relative importance of their sources. This conceptual framework can be situated in the traditional division of levels of analysis: the characteristics of the leader, bureaucratic proposer, internal adjustment, and external impact; and, while it does not provide a conclusive answer, it may be a useful tool in clarifying the ways of using empirical evidence and establishing the relative importance of the sources of change in foreign policy orientation.

  15. Systems Thinking and Simulation Modeling to Inform Childhood Obesity Policy and Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Kenneth E; Kibbe, Debra L; Ferencik, Rachel; Soderquist, Chris; Phillips, Mary Ann; Vall, Emily Anne; Minyard, Karen J

    In 2007, 31.7% of Georgia adolescents in grades 9-12 were overweight or obese. Understanding the impact of policies and interventions on obesity prevalence among young people can help determine statewide public health and policy strategies. This article describes a systems model, originally launched in 2008 and updated in 2014, that simulates the impact of policy interventions on the prevalence of childhood obesity in Georgia through 2034. In 2008, using information from peer-reviewed reports and quantitative estimates by experts in childhood obesity, physical activity, nutrition, and health economics and policy, a group of legislators, legislative staff members, and experts trained in systems thinking and system dynamics modeling constructed a model simulating the impact of policy interventions on the prevalence of childhood obesity in Georgia through 2034. Use of the 2008 model contributed to passage of a bill requiring annual fitness testing of schoolchildren and stricter enforcement of physical education requirements. We updated the model in 2014. With no policy change, the updated model projects that the prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged ≤18 in Georgia would hold at 18% from 2014 through 2034. Mandating daily school physical education (which would reduce prevalence to 12%) and integrating moderate to vigorous physical activity into elementary classrooms (which would reduce prevalence to 10%) would have the largest projected impact. Enacting all policies simultaneously would lower the prevalence of childhood obesity from 18% to 3%. Systems thinking, especially with simulation models, facilitates understanding of complex health policy problems. Using a simulation model to educate legislators, educators, and health experts about the policies that have the greatest short- and long-term impact should encourage strategic investment in low-cost, high-return policies.

  16. Likely social impacts of proposed national-level policy initiatives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piernot, C.A.; Rothweiler, M.A.; Levine, A.; Crews, R.

    1981-03-01

    The results are described of an investigation of likely social effects of enacting nine proposed national-level policy initiatives to accelerate development and use of solar energy. This study is part of the Technology Assessment of Solar Energy Systems (TASE) project supported by the US Department of Energy. The report presents general social impact information about the variety of ways in which the American people could be affected by enactment of these initiatives. It identifies the effects of each initiative on individuals, groups, organizations, communities, and society as a whole. In addition, it provides a framework for organizing a myriad of impact information into a set of conceptually exclusive impact categories. It illustrates that social impacts means effects on people as individuals, groups, organizations, and communities as well as on the infrastructure of society. Finally, it demonstrates the importance of specifying an audience of impact with a case example from the residential rental market.

  17. Final environmental impact statement: US Spent Fuel Policy. Executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-05-01

    The analysis of the environmental impacts for storage of domestic fuel shows that the impacts for the full range of alternatives considered are relatively small compared with available resources or background exposure of the population from natural radiation sources. The differences in impacts of storage of domestic fuel are attributed to the amount of fuel stored in Independent Spent Fuel Storage (ISFS) facilities, the storage time, and, to a lesser degree, the differences in spent fuel transportation. The differences between comparable alternatives of implementing the policy or not implementing the policy are small. The difference in impacts of storage of foreign fuel are attributed to the amount of fuel received under the policy and to the disposition mode analyzed. The impact of storage of foreign fuel (a small fraction of the amount of domestic fuel considered) is also small. As a result of the small differences in environmental impacts of all cases considered for foreign fuel, environmental impacts probably will not strongly influence the selection of the case that best meets US nonproliferation goals. Proliferation benefits of the various cases analyzed vary significantly. The structure and level of fee charged for storage of spent fuel will affect the degree of participation in the spent fuel storage program by utilities. However, the range of participation is within the range of alternatives analyzed in the draft EISs on storage of US and foreign fuels, for which the environmental effects were found to be relatively small. The fee computed on the basis of full recovery of government costs should not significantly affect the cost of generating nuclear power

  18. The Impact of Implementing Tobacco Control Policies: The 2017 Tobacco Control Policy Scorecard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, David T; Tam, Jamie; Kuo, Charlene; Fong, Geoffrey T; Chaloupka, Frank

    2018-01-17

    The Tobacco Control Scorecard, published in 2004, presented estimates of the effectiveness of different policies on smoking rates. Since its publication, new evidence has emerged. We update the Scorecard to include recent studies of demand-reducing tobacco policies for high-income countries. We include cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, media campaigns, comprehensive tobacco control programs, marketing bans, health warnings, and cessation treatment policies. To update the 2004 Scorecard, a narrative review was conducted on reviews and studies published after 2000, with additional focus on 3 policies in which previous evidence was limited: tobacco control programs, graphic health warnings, and marketing bans. We consider evaluation studies that measured the effects of policies on smoking behaviors. Based on these findings, we derive estimates of short-term and long-term policy effect sizes. Cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, marketing restrictions, and comprehensive tobacco control programs are each found to play important roles in reducing smoking prevalence. Cessation treatment policies and graphic health warnings also reduce smoking and, when combined with policies that increase quit attempts, can improve quit success. The effect sizes are broadly consistent with those previously reported for the 2004 Scorecard but now reflect the larger evidence base evaluating the impact of health warnings and advertising restrictions.This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially without permission from the journal.

  19. Impact of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy on Indonesian Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rossanto Dwi HANDOYO

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to investigate the effect of fiscal and monetary policy on Indonesian Stock price as well as main sectors stock price such as agricultural, mining, manufacture, and financial sector indexes. We consider the world oil price as a foreign variable that will influence domestic economy as in regular small open economy model. In this paper, we employ the Monte Carlo algorithm to Near-SVAR models (If some of the VAR equations have regressors not included in the others. We find that there is a positive stock price response to monetary policy shock both aggregated and sectoral stock price. In term of interaction between fiscal policy shock and stock market, we find that all sectors respond negative relationship. From this empirical finding, fiscal policy crowd out private sector activity in market, thus, its effect will be impotent in economy. We also provide the evidence that not only both policies are able to influence the stock price individually, but also the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy is important in explaining stock market performance.

  20. The impact of government policy on preference for NEVs: The evidence from China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Xian; Wang, Ke; Hao, Yu; Fan, Jing-Li; Wei, Yi-Ming

    2013-01-01

    To reduce gasoline consumption and emissions, the Chinese government has introduced a series of preferential policies to encourage the purchase of new energy vehicles (NEVs). However, enthusiasm for the private purchase of NEVs appears to be very low. This timely paper addresses the need for an empirical study to explore this phenomenon by identifying purchase motivations of potential NEV consumers and examining the impact of government policies introduced to promote NEVs in China. A questionnaire survey was carried out. The acceptance of NEVs is measured in three different logistic models: the willingness of consumers to purchase NEVs, the purchasing time, and the acceptable price. The results showed that financial benefits, performance attributes, environmental awareness and psychological needs are the four most important factors influencing consumers’ acceptance of NEVs. Among these, performance attributes rather than financial benefits are the most important indicator. The moderating effect of government policies to relations between purchasing intention, time and price is not strong as respected while the policy implications are clear that the ‘public awareness of government policy’ functions as a moderator in the process of acceptance. These findings could give some hints to the government to make better NEV industry policy. - Highlights: • This paper timely studies the private purchasing behaviors of NEVs in China. • Purchase motivations of NEVs and the impact of government policies are examined. • Performance attribute is the most important indicator to acceptance of NEVs. • The moderating effect of government policies is not strong as respected

  1. Generic Medicine Pricing Policies in Europe: Current Status and Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pieter Dylst

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Generic medicine pricing is an area of national responsibility of European Union countries. This article aims to present the current status and impact of generic medicine pricing policies in ambulatory care in Europe. The study conducts a literature review of policies relating to free-pricing systems, price-regulated systems, price differentiation, price competition and discounts, and tendering procedures; and a survey of European generic medicine pricing policies. Competition from Indian generic medicine manufacturers, European variation in generic medicine prices and competition between generic medicine manufacturers by discount suggest that the potential savings to health care payers and patients from generic medicines are not fully realized in Europe. One way of attaining these savings may be to move away from competition by discount to competition by price. Free-pricing systems may drive medicine prices downwards under specific conditions. In price-regulated systems, regulation may lower prices of originator and generic medicines, but may also remove incentives for additional price reductions beyond those imposed by regulation. To date, little is known about the current status and impact of tendering procedures for medicines in ambulatory care. In conclusion, the European experience suggests that there is not a single approach towards developing generic medicine pricing policies in Europe.

  2. The Effect of Mitigation Policy on Regional Climate Impacts on the U.S. Electric Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, S. M.; Sun, Y.; Strzepek, K.; McFarland, J.; Boehlert, B.; Fant, C.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change can influence the U.S. electricity sector in many ways, the nature of which can be shaped by energy and environmental policy choices. Changing temperatures affect electricity demand largely through heating and cooling needs, and temperatures also affect generation and transmission system performance. Altered precipitation patterns affect the regional and seasonal distribution of surface water runoff, which changes hydropower operation and thermal cooling water availability. The extent to which these stimuli influence U.S. power sector operation and planning will depend to some extent on whether or not proactive policies are enacted to mitigate these impacts. Mitigation policies such as CO2 emissions limits or technology restrictions can change the makeup of the electricity system while reducing the extent of climate change itself. We use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), a U.S. electric sector capacity expansion model, to explore electric sector evolution through 2050 under alternative climate and policy assumptions. The model endogenously represents climate impacts on load, power system performance, cooling water availability, and hydropower, allowing internally consistent system responses to climate change along with projected technology, market, and policy conditions. We compare climate impacts across 5 global circulation models for a 8.5 W/m2 representative concentration pathway (RCP) without a climate mitigation policy and a 4.5 W/m2 RCP with climate mitigation. Climate drivers affect the capacity and generation mix at the national and regional levels, with relative growth of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies depending on local electricity system characteristics. These differences affect regional economic impacts, measured here as changes to electricity price and system costs. Mitigation policy reduces the economic and system impacts of climate change largely by moderating

  3. Impacts of Policies on Poverty: The Definition of Poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Bellù, Lorenzo Giovanni; Liberati, Paolo

    2005-01-01

    This module illustrates how poverty can be defined in the context of policy impact analysis. After reporting and discussing the definition of poverty as “the lack of, or the inability to achieve, a socially acceptable standard of living”, it discusses the mono-dimensional and multi-dimensional approaches to the definition of poverty. Furthermore, the module focuses on the absolute and the relative concept of poverty, also drawing some analogies and differences with the concept of food secu...

  4. Coal transport demand in Western Europe and Japan: Impacts of energy market liberalisation and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golombek, Rolf; Kittelsen, Sverre A.C.; Maestad, Ottar

    2005-12-01

    Western Europe and Japan are among the main importers of coal. Climate policies following the Kyoto agreement are creating pressure to substitute away from coal and turn to less emission intensive energy sources. At the same time, liberalizations of energy markets in Europe and Japan are likely to cause reduced electricity prices, which will boost the overall demand for electricity. This paper analyses the combined effect of electricity market liberalization and climate policies on the international coal trade. Using the numerical equilibrium model LIBEMOD, we find that while liberalization of electricity markets will imply a large increase in aggregate coal transport demand, the negative impact of climate policies may be even larger, in particular if Russia and Ukraine utilise their market power in the market for emission permits. If this market power is exploited, the total effect of liberalisation and climate policy - when including the impact of general economic growth - is a 20% reduction in aggregate coal transport between 2000 and 2010. Further, impacts differ markedly between Western Europe and Japan. A main difference is that liberalisation has a much more positive - and climate policies have a much stronger negative - impact on steam coal demand in Western Europe than in Japan

  5. Impacts of Sugar Import Policy on Sugar Production in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Suryantoro, Agustinus; Susilo, Albertus Magnus; Supriyono, Supriyono

    2013-01-01

    Production of sugar unful lled consumption of Indonesia society. The lack of consumption and productionhave ful lled by import. Assumption national consumption 2,7 million ton, Indonesia will import sugar in 2013predicted about 300.000 ton (Tempo.co, August, 21, 2012).The aims in general of this research are to understand the impact of sugar import policy on sugar production.Especially (1) to understand the factors that in uence sugar import price, (2) to understand impact of sugarimport pric...

  6. Federal policies for renewable electricity: Impacts and interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palmer, Karen, E-mail: Palmer@rff.org [Resources for the Future, 1616 P St, NW, Washington, DC 20036 (United States); Paul, Anthony, E-mail: Paul@rff.org [Resources for the Future, 1616 P St, NW, Washington, DC 20036 (United States); Woerman, Matt, E-mail: Woerman@rff.org [Resources for the Future, 1616 P St, NW, Washington, DC 20036 (United States); Steinberg, Daniel C., E-mail: daniel.steinberg@nrel.gov [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 1617 Cole Blvd., Golden, CO 80401 (United States)

    2011-07-15

    Three types of policies that are prominent in the federal debate over addressing greenhouse gas emissions in the United States are a cap-and-trade program (CTP) on emissions, a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) for electricity production, and tax credits for renewable electricity producers. Each of these policies would have different consequences, and combinations of these policies could induce interactions yielding a whole that is not the sum of its parts. This paper utilizes the Haiku electricity market model to evaluate the economic and technology outcomes, climate benefits, and cost-effectiveness of three such policies and all possible combinations of the policies. A central finding is that the carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions reductions from CTP can be significantly greater than those from the other policies, even for similar levels of renewable electricity production, since of the three policies, CTP is the only one that distinguishes electricity generated by coal and natural gas. It follows that CTP is the most cost-effective among these approaches at reducing CO{sub 2} emissions. An alternative compliance payment mechanism in an RPS program could substantially affect renewables penetration, and the electricity price effects of the policies hinge partly on the regulatory structure of electricity markets, which varies across the country. - Research Highlights: > Climate benefits of cap-and-trade are greater than of tax credits or RPS. > Cap-and-trade is more cost-effective at reducing emissions than tax credits or RPS. > Tax credits are a subsidy to production that raises electricity consumption. > Alternative compliance payment can substantially affect the outcome of RPS.

  7. Federal policies for renewable electricity: Impacts and interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palmer, Karen; Paul, Anthony; Woerman, Matt; Steinberg, Daniel C.

    2011-01-01

    Three types of policies that are prominent in the federal debate over addressing greenhouse gas emissions in the United States are a cap-and-trade program (CTP) on emissions, a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) for electricity production, and tax credits for renewable electricity producers. Each of these policies would have different consequences, and combinations of these policies could induce interactions yielding a whole that is not the sum of its parts. This paper utilizes the Haiku electricity market model to evaluate the economic and technology outcomes, climate benefits, and cost-effectiveness of three such policies and all possible combinations of the policies. A central finding is that the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions reductions from CTP can be significantly greater than those from the other policies, even for similar levels of renewable electricity production, since of the three policies, CTP is the only one that distinguishes electricity generated by coal and natural gas. It follows that CTP is the most cost-effective among these approaches at reducing CO 2 emissions. An alternative compliance payment mechanism in an RPS program could substantially affect renewables penetration, and the electricity price effects of the policies hinge partly on the regulatory structure of electricity markets, which varies across the country. - Research highlights: → Climate benefits of cap-and-trade are greater than of tax credits or RPS. → Cap-and-trade is more cost-effective at reducing emissions than tax credits or RPS. → Tax credits are a subsidy to production that raises electricity consumption. → Alternative compliance payment can substantially affect the outcome of RPS.

  8. National Environmental Policy Act guidance: A model process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angle, B.M.; Lockhart, V.A.T.; Sema, B.; Tuott, L.C.; Irving, J.S.

    1995-04-01

    The ''Model National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Process'' includes: References to regulations, guidance documents, and plans; training programs; procedures; and computer databases. Legislative Acts and reference documents from Congress, US Department of Energy, and Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company provide the bases for conducting NEPA at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) NEPA / Permitting Department, the Contractor Environmental Organization (CEO) is responsible for developing and maintaining LITCO NEPA and permitting policies, guidance, and procedures. The CEO develops procedures to conduct environmental evaluations based on NEPA, Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) regulations, and DOE guidance. This procedure includes preparation or support of environmental checklists, categorical exclusion determinations, environmental assessment determinations, environmental assessments, and environmental impact statements. In addition, the CEO uses this information to train personnel conducting environmental evaluations at the INEL. Streamlining these procedures fosters efficient use of resources, quality documents, and better decisions on proposed actions

  9. The Impact of Different Policy Choices on Income Distribution After ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract: Government controls on the price of food through stock adjustment and through imports of food are explicitly modelled in a computable general equilibrium for Zimbabwe. The results of policy simulations show that allowing the price of food to increase during a drought period increases incomes of food producers ...

  10. Impact of Climate Policy on the Basque Economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gonzalez, M.J.; Dellink, R.B.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the economic effects of CO2 emission reductions in the Basque Country (Spain) using an applied general equilibrium (AGE) model with specific attention to environment-energy-economy interactions. Environmental policy is implemented through a system of tradable pollution

  11. Long-Term National Impacts of State-Level Policies: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blair, N.; Short, W.; Denholm, P.; Heimiller, D.

    2006-06-01

    This paper presents analysis conducted with the Wind Deployment System Model (WinDS) -- a model of capacity expansion in the U.S. electric sector. With 358 regions covering the United States, detailed transmission system representation, and an explicit treatment of wind intermittency and ancillary services, WinDS is uniquely positioned to evaluate the market impacts of specific state-level policies. This paper provides analysis results regarding the impact of existing state-level policies designed to promote wind-capacity expansion, including state portfolio standards, mandates, and tax credits. The results show the amount of wind deployment due to current state-level incentives as well as examine their lasting impact on the national wind industry. For example, state-level mandates increase industry size and lower costs, which result in wind capacity increases in states without mandates and greater market growth even after the policies expire. Although these policies are enacted by individual states, the cumulative effect must be examined at a national level. Finally, this paper examines the impact on wind-capacity growth by increasing the penalty associated with the state-level renewable portfolio standards (RPS). The results show national and regional wind energy deployment and generation through 2050.

  12. Improving health through policies that promote active travel: a review of evidence to support integrated health impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Nazelle, Audrey; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J; Antó, Josep M; Brauer, Michael; Briggs, David; Braun-Fahrlander, Charlotte; Cavill, Nick; Cooper, Ashley R; Desqueyroux, Hélène; Fruin, Scott; Hoek, Gerard; Panis, Luc Int; Janssen, Nicole; Jerrett, Michael; Joffe, Michael; Andersen, Zorana Jovanovic; van Kempen, Elise; Kingham, Simon; Kubesch, Nadine; Leyden, Kevin M; Marshall, Julian D; Matamala, Jaume; Mellios, Giorgos; Mendez, Michelle; Nassif, Hala; Ogilvie, David; Peiró, Rosana; Pérez, Katherine; Rabl, Ari; Ragettli, Martina; Rodríguez, Daniel; Rojas, David; Ruiz, Pablo; Sallis, James F; Terwoert, Jeroen; Toussaint, Jean-François; Tuomisto, Jouni; Zuurbier, Moniek; Lebret, Erik

    2011-05-01

    Substantial policy changes to control obesity, limit chronic disease, and reduce air pollution emissions, including greenhouse gasses, have been recommended. Transportation and planning policies that promote active travel by walking and cycling can contribute to these goals, potentially yielding further co-benefits. Little is known, however, about the interconnections among effects of policies considered, including potential unintended consequences. We review available literature regarding health impacts from policies that encourage active travel in the context of developing health impact assessment (HIA) models to help decision-makers propose better solutions for healthy environments. We identify important components of HIA models of modal shifts in active travel in response to transport policies and interventions. Policies that increase active travel are likely to generate large individual health benefits through increases in physical activity for active travelers. Smaller, but population-wide benefits could accrue through reductions in air and noise pollution. Depending on conditions of policy implementations, risk tradeoffs are possible for some individuals who shift to active travel and consequently increase inhalation of air pollutants and exposure to traffic injuries. Well-designed policies may enhance health benefits through indirect outcomes such as improved social capital and diet, but these synergies are not sufficiently well understood to allow quantification at this time. Evaluating impacts of active travel policies is highly complex; however, many associations can be quantified. Identifying health-maximizing policies and conditions requires integrated HIAs. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Information Security Policy Modeling for Network Security Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry Sergeevich Chernyavskiy

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Policy management for network security systems (NSSs is one of the most topical issues of network security management. Incorrect configurations of NSSs lead to system outages and appearance of vulnerabilities. Moreover, policy management process is a time-consuming task, which includes significant amount of manual work. These factors reduce efficiency of NSSs’ utilization. The paper discusses peculiarities of policy management process and existing approaches to policy modeling, presents a model aimed to formalize policies for NSSs independently on NSSs’ platforms and select the most effective NSSs for implementation of the policies.

  14. Population health outcome models in suicide prevention policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Frances L

    2014-09-01

    Suicide is a leading cause of death in the U.S. and results in immense suffering and significant cost. Effective suicide prevention interventions could reduce this burden, but policy makers need estimates of health outcomes achieved by alternative interventions to focus implementation efforts. To illustrate the utility of health outcome models to help in achieving goals defined by the National Action Alliance for Suicide Prevention's Research Prioritization Task Force. The approach is illustrated specifically with psychotherapeutic interventions to prevent suicide reattempt in emergency department settings. A health outcome model using decision analysis with secondary data was applied to estimate suicide attempts and deaths averted from evidence-based interventions. Under optimal conditions, the model estimated that over 1 year, implementing evidence-based psychotherapeutic interventions in emergency departments could decrease the number of suicide attempts by 18,737, and if offered over 5 years, it could avert 109,306 attempts. Over 1 year, the model estimated 2,498 fewer deaths from suicide, and over 5 years, about 13,928 fewer suicide deaths. Health outcome models could aid in suicide prevention policy by helping focus implementation efforts. Further research developing more sophisticated models of the impact of suicide prevention interventions that include a more complex understanding of suicidal behavior, longer time frames, and inclusion of additional outcomes that capture the full benefits and costs of interventions would be helpful next steps. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

  15. The Impact of Transport Mode and Carbon Policy on Low-Carbon Retailer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Zheng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Low-carbon retail has become a strategic target for many developed and developing economies. This study discusses the impact of transport mode and carbon policy on achieving this objective. We investigated the retailer transportation mode, pricing, and ordering strategy, which all consider carbon-sensitive demand under the carbon cap-and-trade policy. We analyzed the optimal decision of retailer and their maximum profit affected by transport mode and cap-and-trade policy parameters. Results show that the two elements (cap-and-trade policy and consumer low-carbon awareness could encourage the retailer to choose low-carbon transportation. The two elements also influence the profit and optimal decision of retailer. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the applicability of the model.

  16. 78 FR 65418 - Order 1050.1F Environmental Impacts: Policies and Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-31

    ... Federal Aviation Administration Order 1050.1F Environmental Impacts: Policies and Procedures AGENCY... Environmental Impacts: Policies and Procedures; Re-Opening of Comment Period. SUMMARY: This action re-opens the comment period for the notice of draft Order 1050.1F, Environmental Impacts: Policies and Procedures that...

  17. Impacts of the Fukushima Daiichi Accident on Nuclear Development Policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vance, Robert; Henderson, David; ); Moore, Laurie

    2017-01-01

    The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident has had an impact on the development of nuclear power around the world. While the accident was followed by thorough technical assessments of the safety of all operating nuclear power plants, and a general increase in safety requirements has been observed worldwide, national policy responses have been more varied. These responses have ranged from countries phasing out or accelerating decisions to phase out nuclear energy to countries reducing their reliance on nuclear power or on the contrary continuing to pursue or expand their nuclear power programs. This study examines changes to policies, and plans and attempts to distinguish the impact of the Fukushima Daiichi accident from other factors that have affected policy-making in relation to nuclear energy, in particular electricity market economics, financing challenges and competition from other sources (gas, coal and renewables). It also examines changes over time to long-term, quantitative country projections, which reveal interesting trends on the possible role of nuclear energy in future energy systems. (authors)

  18. Health Impact Assessment, Physical Activity and Federal Lands Trail Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Sally M; Cruz, Theresa H; Kozoll, Richard L

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this paper are to describe the application of Health Impact Assessment (HIA) to inform trail decisions affecting a rural, under-resourced community and propose the routine integration of HIAs to enhance NEPA environmental assessments and environmental impact statements for trail decisions on federal lands. Screening, scoping, assessment, recommendations, reporting, monitoring and evaluation are being used to examine the health impact of trail location and design. HIA recommendations are being integrated into the public lands National Environmental Protection Act process for planning access to a new segment of the Continental Divide National Scenic Trail. Potential users from a nearby rural New Mexico community and a region of almost one million may benefit from this HIA-informed planning. HIA can be integrated into the policy and decision-making process for trails on public lands.

  19. Affective Policy Performance Evaluation Model: A Case of an International Trade Policy Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inwon Kang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Firms often superficially adopt policies because of governmental rules and regulations, so as to avoid penalties or to gain benefits. However, the evaluation and characterization of those kinds of adoptions as policy performance distorts the true level of policy performance: social sustainability. This study proposes an affective policy performance evaluation model. The attitudes of employees toward adopting a policy are characterized into genuine and superficial compliance. Their behaviors are explained through voluntary and opportunistic adoptions. In order to validate the proposed model, a survey was conducted on an international trade policy target group (n = 216 for the Strategic Trade Control System (STCS, in order to understand their attitudes toward adopting the policy. The survey data was analyzed by a structural equation modeling method. The measures of the factors in the proposed model are adopted and modified from existing studies. The most effective resources of policy implementation on the firms’ genuine and superficial compliance and ultimately on the firms’ voluntary policy adoption are revealed through the analysis. Based on the results, this study presents a strategy for allocating and managing policy implementation resources to exclusively encourage firms’ trade policy adoptions.

  20. Public health impacts of city policies to reduce climate change: findings from the URGENCHE EU-China project

    OpenAIRE

    Sabel, Clive E.; Hiscock, Rosemary; Asikainen, Arja; Bi, Jun; Depledge, Mike; van den Elshout, Sef; Friedrich, Rainer; Huang, Ganlin; Hurley, Fintan; Jantunen, Matti; Karakitsios, Spyros P.; Keuken, Menno; Kingham, Simon; Kontoroupis, Periklis; Kuenzli, Nino

    2016-01-01

    Background Climate change is a global threat to health and wellbeing. Here we provide findings of an international research project investigating the health and wellbeing impacts of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in urban environments. Methods Five European and two Chinese city authorities and partner academic organisations formed the project consortium. The methodology involved modelling the impact of adopted urban climate-change mitigation transport, buildings and energy policy...

  1. The Economic and Health Impacts of Legislative Fiscal Policies to ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Decreasing the burden of type 2 diabetes in South Africa : The Impact of Taxing Sugar-Sweetened Beverages. Download PDF. Journal articles. Empowering healthy food and beverage choices in the workplace. Download PDF. Journal articles. Modelling the potential impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on stroke ...

  2. Impact of Scheduling Policies on Control System Performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Ravn, Anders Peter; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard

    It is well known that jitter has an impact on control system performance, and this is often used as an argument for static scheduling policies, e.g. a time triggered architecture. However, it is only completion jitter that seriously disturbs standard linear control algorithms in a way similar...... to the delay inherent in a time triggered architecture. Thus we propose that standard control algorithms are scheduled dynamically, but without preemption. Analysis of this policy is contrasted with a corresponding time triggered architecture and is shown to have better impulse response performance both...... in the deterministic case and under white noise disturbances. The conclusion is that under very reasonable assumptions about robustness of control algorithms,they are insensitive to relase jitter, albeit strongly sensitive to completion jitter, thus priority based scheduling without preemption is may be preferable...

  3. A Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model for Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, R. W.; Hill, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    Although integrated assessments of climate change policy have frequently identified nuclear energy as a promising alternative to fossil fuels, these studies have often treated nuclear waste disposal very simply. Simple assumptions about nuclear waste are problematic because they may not be adequate to capture relevant costs and uncertainties, which could result in suboptimal policy choices. Modeling nuclear waste management costs is a cross-disciplinary, multi-scale problem that involves economic, geologic and environmental processes that operate at vastly different temporal scales. Similarly, the climate-related costs and benefits of nuclear energy are dependent on environmental sensitivity to CO2 emissions and radiation, nuclear energy's ability to offset carbon emissions, and the risk of nuclear accidents, factors which are all deeply uncertain. Alternative value systems further complicate the problem by suggesting different approaches to valuing intergenerational impacts. Effective policy assessment of nuclear energy requires an integrated approach to modeling nuclear waste management that (1) bridges disciplinary and temporal gaps, (2) supports an iterative, adaptive process that responds to evolving understandings of uncertainties, and (3) supports a broad range of value systems. This work develops the Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model (NWMCM). NWMCM provides a flexible framework for evaluating the cost of nuclear waste management across a range of technology pathways and value systems. We illustrate how NWMCM can support policy analysis by estimating how different nuclear waste disposal scenarios developed using the NWMCM framework affect the results of a recent integrated assessment study of alternative energy futures and their effects on the cost of achieving carbon abatement targets. Results suggest that the optimism reflected in previous works is fragile: Plausible nuclear waste management costs and discount rates appropriate for intergenerational cost

  4. Impact of electrical intertie capacity on carbon policy effectiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    English, J.; Niet, T.; Lyseng, B.; Palmer-Wilson, K.; Keller, V.; Moazzen, I.; Pitt, L.; Wild, P.; Rowe, A.

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates the potential cost and emissions reductions that result from an increase in electricity transmission capacity between Canada's two westernmost provinces: Alberta, a fossil fuel dominated jurisdiction, and British Columbia, a predominantly hydroelectric jurisdiction. A bottom-up model is used to find the least cost electricity generation mix in Alberta and British Columbia under different carbon policies. The long-term evolution of the electricity system is determined by minimizing net present cost of electricity generation for the time span of 2010–2060. Different levels of intertie capacity expansion are considered together with a variety of carbon tax and carbon cap scenarios. Results indicate that increased intertie capacity reduces the cost of electricity and emissions under carbon pricing policies. However, the expandable intertie does not encourage greater adoption of variable renewable generation. Instead, it is used to move low-cost energy from the United States to Alberta. The optimal intertie capacity and cost reduction of increased interconnectivity increases with more restrictive carbon policies. - Highlights: • A techno-economic optimization model is used to examine electricity generation in western Canada. • Interprovincial electricity transmission can decrease carbon abatement costs. • Market conditions can reduce the expected synergy between storage hydroelectricity and variable renewable generation. • Inconsistent carbon policies between regions mean emissions are moved, not avoided.

  5. Social Impact Management Plans: Innovation in corporate and public policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franks, Daniel M.; Vanclay, Frank

    2013-01-01

    Social Impact Assessment (SIA) has traditionally been practiced as a predictive study for the regulatory approval of major projects, however, in recent years the drivers and domain of focus for SIA have shifted. This paper details the emergence of Social Impact Management Plans (SIMPs) and undertakes an analysis of innovations in corporate and public policy that have put in place ongoing processes – assessment, management and monitoring – to better identify the nature and scope of the social impacts that might occur during implementation and to proactively respond to change across the lifecycle of developments. Four leading practice examples are analyzed. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) Performance Standards require the preparation of Environmental and Social Management Plans for all projects financed by the IFC identified as having significant environmental and social risks. Anglo American, a major resources company, has introduced a Socio-Economic Assessment Toolbox, which requires mine sites to undertake regular assessments and link these assessments with their internal management systems, monitoring activities and a Social Management Plan. In South Africa, Social and Labour Plans are submitted with an application for a mining or production right. In Queensland, Australia, Social Impact Management Plans were developed as part of an Environmental Impact Statement, which included assessment of social impacts. Collectively these initiatives, and others, are a practical realization of theoretical conceptions of SIA that include management and monitoring as core components of SIA. The paper concludes with an analysis of the implications for the practice of impact assessment including a summary of key criteria for the design and implementation of effective SIMPs. -- Highlights: • Social impact management plans are effective strategies to manage social issues. • They are developed in partnership with regulatory agencies, investors and community.

  6. Six challenges in modelling for public health policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.J.E. Metcalf

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The World Health Organisation's definition of public health refers to all organized measures to prevent disease, promote health, and prolong life among the population as a whole (World Health Organization, 2014. Mathematical modelling plays an increasingly important role in helping to guide the most high impact and cost-effective means of achieving these goals. Public health programmes are usually implemented over a long period of time with broad benefits to many in the community. Clinical trials are seldom large enough to capture these effects. Observational data may be used to evaluate a programme after it is underway, but have limited value in helping to predict the future impact of a proposed policy. Furthermore, public health practitioners are often required to respond to new threats, for which there is little or no previous data on which to assess the threat. Computational and mathematical models can help to assess potential threats and impacts early in the process, and later aid in interpreting data from complex and multifactorial systems. As such, these models can be critical tools in guiding public health action. However, there are a number of challenges in achieving a successful interface between modelling and public health. Here, we discuss some of these challenges.

  7. Six challenges in modelling for public health policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalf, C J E; Edmunds, W J; Lessler, J

    2015-03-01

    The World Health Organisation's definition of public health refers to all organized measures to prevent disease, promote health, and prolong life among the population as a whole (World Health Organization, 2014). Mathematical modelling plays an increasingly important role in helping to guide the most high impact and cost-effective means of achieving these goals. Public health programmes are usually implemented over a long period of time with broad benefits to many in the community. Clinical trials are seldom large enough to capture these effects. Observational data may be used to evaluate a programme after it is underway, but have limited value in helping to predict the future impact of a proposed policy. Furthermore, public health practitioners are often required to respond to new threats, for which there is little or no previous data on which to assess the threat. Computational and mathematical models can help to assess potential threats and impacts early in the process, and later aid in interpreting data from complex and multifactorial systems. As such, these models can be critical tools in guiding public health action. However, there are a number of challenges in achieving a successful interface between modelling and public health. Here, we discuss some of these challenges. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. The impact of the endogenous technical change on climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sassi, O.

    2008-11-01

    This research aims at revisiting the 'autonomous vs. induced' debate on the costs of climate policies, first by broadening the framework of the technical change induction to other economical sectors, and then by attempting to go beyond the concept of technical change induction and think in terms of a structural change induction. After a review of modes of representation of the technical progress in economical prospective models for the assessment of climate policies, the author presents the IMACLIM-R model, a recursive general equilibrium model which simulates the evolution of the world economy within 12 regions and 12 sectors between 2001 and 2100. The results obtained with this model are then presented and discussed, in the case of a reference scenario which displays a significant change towards a carbon-intensive path. These results stress the risks related to a 'laissez faire' attitude. The author explores the consequences in terms of climate policies with a more or less extended taking into account of phenomena of induction of technical and structural changes

  9. Econometric Model of Rice Policy Based On Presidential Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abadi Sembiring, Surya; Hutauruk, Julia

    2018-01-01

    The objective of research is to build an econometric model based on Presidential Instruction rice policy. The data was monthly time series from March 2005 to September 2009. Rice policy model specification using simultaneous equation, consisting of 14 structural equations and four identity equation, which was estimated using Two Stages Least Squares (2SLS) method. The results show that: (1) an increase of government purchasing price of dried harvest paddy has a positive impact on to increase in total rice production and community rice stock, (2) an increase community rice stock lead to decrease the rice imports, (3) an increase of the realization of the distribution of subsidized ZA fertilizers and the realization of the distribution of subsidized NPK fertilizers has a positive impact on to increase in total rice production and community rice stock and to reduce rice imports, (4) the price of the dried harvest paddy is highly responsive to the water content of dried harvest paddy both the short run and long run, (5) the quantity of rice imported is highly responsive to the imported rice price, both short run and long run.

  10. Impact of Cross-Sectoral Alcohol Policy on Youth Alcohol Consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Goeij, Moniek C M; Jacobs, Monique A M; van Nierop, Peter; van der Veeken-Vlassak, Ivanka A G; van de Mheen, Dike; Schoenmakers, Tim M; Harting, Janneke; Kunst, Anton E

    2016-07-01

    Cross-sectoral alcohol policy is recommended to reduce youth alcohol consumption, but little evidence is available on its effectiveness. Therefore, we examined whether regions and municipalities in the Dutch province of Noord-Brabant with stronger cross-sectoral alcohol policy showed larger reductions in alcohol consumption among adolescents aged 12-15. Strong regional cross-sectoral alcohol policy was defined as participation in a regional alcohol prevention program. Strong municipal cross-sectoral alcohol policy was operationalized by measures on (a) sector variety: involvement of different policy sectors, and (b) strategy variety: formulation of different policy strategies. Relevant data from policy documents were searched for on the Internet. Data on trends in alcohol consumption were extracted from the 2007 and 2011 cross-sectional Youth Health Monitor that includes a random subset of adolescents aged 12-15 (n = 15,380 in 2007 and n = 15,437 in 2011). We used multilevel regression models. Two of the three regions in which municipalities participated in a regional alcohol prevention program showed a larger reduction in weekly drinking than the region in which municipalities did not participate (-12.2% and -13.4% vs. -8.3%). Municipalities with strong compared to weak sector variety showed a larger increase in adolescents' age at consuming their first alcoholic drink (0.63 vs. 0.42 years). Municipalities with strong strategy variety showed a decrease (-3.8%) in heavy weekly drinking, whereas those with weak variety showed an increase (5.1%). Cross-sectoral alcohol policy did not affect trends in other alcohol outcomes. Our results suggest that strong cross-sectoral alcohol policy may contribute to reducing some aspects of youth alcohol consumption. Monitoring policy implementation is needed to assess the full impact.

  11. The impact of Nordic countries' family friendly policies on employment, wages, and children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gupta, Nabanita Datta; Smith, Nina; Verner, Mette

    2008-01-01

    The Nordic countries at the same time exhibit a remarkably high participation rate of mothers and a more moderate decline in fertility rates compared to other Western countries. This has been attributed to the fact that the welfare state model and, especially, the family friendly policies chosen...... in the Nordic countries are unique. In this paper we evaluate the impact of Nordic countries' family friendly policies on employment, wages and children's well-being. We demonstrate that, although the `Nordic model' has been successful in boosting female employment, it is a costly solution. Furthermore, family......-friendly policies mainly directed towards giving mothers the right to be on long paid maternal leave have adverse effects on women's wages with consequences for gender equality. Indeed, extensive family-friendly schemes may even have created a `system-based glass ceiling' hindering women's career progression...

  12. Evaluating Energy Efficiency Policies with Energy-Economy Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mundaca, Luis; Neij, Lena; Worrell, Ernst; McNeil, Michael A.

    2010-08-01

    The growing complexities of energy systems, environmental problems and technology markets are driving and testing most energy-economy models to their limits. To further advance bottom-up models from a multidisciplinary energy efficiency policy evaluation perspective, we review and critically analyse bottom-up energy-economy models and corresponding evaluation studies on energy efficiency policies to induce technological change. We use the household sector as a case study. Our analysis focuses on decision frameworks for technology choice, type of evaluation being carried out, treatment of market and behavioural failures, evaluated policy instruments, and key determinants used to mimic policy instruments. Although the review confirms criticism related to energy-economy models (e.g. unrealistic representation of decision-making by consumers when choosing technologies), they provide valuable guidance for policy evaluation related to energy efficiency. Different areas to further advance models remain open, particularly related to modelling issues, techno-economic and environmental aspects, behavioural determinants, and policy considerations.

  13. Little emperors: behavioral impacts of China's One-Child Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, L; Erkal, N; Gangadharan, L; Meng, X

    2013-02-22

    We document that China's One-Child Policy (OCP), one of the most radical approaches to limiting population growth, has produced significantly less trusting, less trustworthy, more risk-averse, less competitive, more pessimistic, and less conscientious individuals. Our data were collected from economics experiments conducted with 421 individuals born just before and just after the OCP's introduction in 1979. Surveys to elicit personality traits were also used. We used the exogenous imposition of the OCP to identify the causal impact of being an only child, net of family background effects. The OCP thus has significant ramifications for Chinese society.

  14. Impacts of climate policy on the competitiveness of Canadian industry. How big and how to mitigate?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rivers, Nic [School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University (Canada)

    2010-09-15

    Competitiveness concerns have been at the forefront of climate policy debates in Canada particularly as a result of its high energy intensity and significant exposure to international markets. This paper uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to assess the likely impacts on sectoral competitiveness that would accompany efforts to meet greenhouse gas mitigation targets that have been set by the Canadian government. Additionally, it evaluates several design mechanisms that could be used to reduce the negative competiveness impacts associated with adoption of domestic climate policies. The analysis suggests that several sectors would likely face significant competiveness challenges under a reference scenario in which permits are given to emitters in lump sum. However, it finds that competiveness impacts can be minimized by using output-based recycling of permits, or by using border tax adjustments. (author)

  15. Impacts of climate policy on the competitiveness of Canadian industry: How big and how to mitigate?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rivers, Nic, E-mail: njrivers@sfu.c [School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University (Canada)

    2010-09-15

    Competitiveness concerns have been at the forefront of climate policy debates in Canada particularly as a result of its high energy intensity and significant exposure to international markets. This paper uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to assess the likely impacts on sectoral competitiveness that would accompany efforts to meet greenhouse gas mitigation targets that have been set by the Canadian government. Additionally, it evaluates several design mechanisms that could be used to reduce the negative competiveness impacts associated with adoption of domestic climate policies. The analysis suggests that several sectors would likely face significant competiveness challenges under a reference scenario in which permits are given to emitters in lump sum. However, it finds that competiveness impacts can be minimized by using output-based recycling of permits, or by using border tax adjustments.

  16. Simulation modeling of policies directed at youth sugar-sweetened beverage consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, David T; Friend, Karen B

    2013-03-01

    Childhood obesity is a significant public health problem requiring innovative solutions. While recent reviews indicate that some policies show promise, there is a lack of information regarding which policies, and policy combinations, work best. Low-nutrition, energy-dense foods and beverages such as sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have been identified as a major contributor to the problem. The purpose of this paper is to use simulation modeling to show how changes in three categories of SSB policies-school nutrition, school-based education, and taxes-impact SSB and other food consumption. The model shows that policies directed at SSBs, particularly tax hikes, could lead to substantial reductions in the number of calories consumed by youth. The estimates, however, are subject to a high degree of uncertainty. Estimates from school-based nutrition and school-based education policies, while also helping to reduce caloric intake, generally show smaller effects than tax policies and considerable variation around parameter estimates for individual and combined policies. We conclude with a discussion of the limits of the model, and suggest where additional information is needed. Limitations notwithstanding, simulation modeling is a promising methodology that can help advance our understanding of policy effects, thereby helping policymakers to better formulate effective policies to reduce obesity prevalence and the associated social harms.

  17. Clean Energy Policy Analysis: Impact Analysis of Potential Clean Energy Policy Options for the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busche, S.; Doris, E.; Braccio, R.; Lippert, D.; Finch, P.; O' Toole, D.; Fetter, J.

    2010-04-01

    This report provides detailed analyses of 21 clean energy policy options considered by the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative working groups for recommendation to the 2010 Hawaii State Legislature. The report considers the impact each policy may have on ratepayers, businesses, and the state in terms of energy saved, clean energy generated, and the financial costs and benefits. The analyses provide insight into the possible impacts, both qualitative and quantitative, that these policies may have in Hawaii based on the experience with these policies elsewhere. As much as possible, the analyses incorporate Hawaii-specific context to reflect the many unique aspects of energy use in the State of Hawaii.

  18. Arab Spring vs. Zero Problems Policy Impact of the Arab Spring on the Trade Expansion of Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Engin Sorhun

    2016-01-01

    Spring” has started to manifest its effects on this trend. It deteriorates not only the economies of the concerned countries but also Turkey’s trade expansion. This paper aims: (i to test through a gravity model the positive impacts of the ZPN policy and the negative impact of the Arab Spring on the trade expansion with the Spring Countries; and (ii to reveal the positive impact of the policy change and the negative impact of the uprising movements on the realization of trade potential by Turkey in the Spring Countries.

  19. Examining Policies to Reduce Homelessness Using a General Equilibrium Model of the Housing Market

    OpenAIRE

    Mansur, Erin; Quigley, John M.; Raphael, Steven; Smolensky, Eugene

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, we use a general equilibrium simulation model to assess the potential impacts on homelessness of various housing-market policy interventions. We calibrate the model to the four largest metropolitan areas in California. We explore the welfare con- sequences and the effects on homelessness of three housing-market policy interventions: extending housing vouchers to all low-income households, subsidizing all landlords, and subsidizing those landlords who supply low-income housing. ...

  20. Interaction between fiscal and monetary policy in a dynamic nonlinear model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertella, Mario A; Rego, Henio A; Neris, Celso; Silva, Jonathas N; Podobnik, Boris; Stanley, H Eugene

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study is to verify the dynamics between fiscal policy, measured by public debt, and monetary policy, measured by a reaction function of a central bank. Changes in monetary policies due to deviations from their targets always generate fiscal impacts. We examine two policy reaction functions: the first related to inflation targets and the second related to economic growth targets. We find that the condition for stable equilibrium is more restrictive in the first case than in the second. We then apply our simulation model to Brazil and United Kingdom and find that the equilibrium is unstable in the Brazilian case but stable in the UK case.

  1. The potential impacts of climate-change policy on freshwater use in thermoelectric power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chandel, Munish K.; Pratson, Lincoln F.; Jackson, Robert B.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change policy involving a price on carbon would change the mix of power plants and the amount of water they withdraw and consume to generate electricity. We analyze what these changes could entail for electricity generation in the United States under four climate policy scenarios that involve different costs for emitting CO 2 and different technology options for reducing emissions out to the year 2030. The potential impacts of the scenarios on the U.S. electric system are modeled using a modified version of the U.S. National Energy Modeling System and water-use factors for thermoelectric power plants derived from electric utility data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Under all the climate-policy scenarios, freshwater withdrawals decline 2-14% relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of no U.S. climate policy. Furthermore, water use decreases as the price on CO 2 under the climate policies increases. At relatively high carbon prices (>$50/tonne CO 2 ), however, retrofitting coal plants to capture CO 2 increases freshwater consumption compared to BAU in 2030. Our analysis suggests that climate policies and a carbon price will reduce both electricity generation and freshwater withdrawals compared to BAU unless a substantial number of coal plants are retrofitted to capture CO 2 . - Highlights: → We analyze the impact of climate change policy on water use for electricity generation. → Water use decreases with an increase in CO 2 allowance price. → Retrofitting of coal plants with CCS could increase water use considerably.

  2. Developing Policy for Urban Autonomous Vehicles: Impact on Congestion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Metz

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available An important problem for surface transport is road traffic congestion, which is ubiquitous and difficult to mitigate. Accordingly, a question for policymakers is the possible impact on congestion of autonomous vehicles. It seems likely that the main impact of vehicle automation will not be seen until driverless vehicles are sufficiently safe for use amid general traffic on urban streets. Shared use driverless vehicles could reduce the cost of taxis and a wider range of public transport vehicles could be economic. Individually owned autonomous vehicles would have the ability to travel unoccupied and may need to be regulated where this might add to congestion. It is possible that autonomous vehicles could provide mobility services at lower cost and wider scope, such that private car use in urban areas could decline and congestion reduce. City authorities should be alert to these possibilities in developing transport policy.

  3. Modeling sustainable groundwater management: packaging and sequencing of policy interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esteban, Encarna; Dinar, Ariel

    2013-04-15

    Of the many studies estimating effectiveness of policy reforms most have been considering various types of policy reforms in isolation from each other. Such pattern has also been the case in water resource regulations. In the case of groundwater almost all policy interventions considered in the literature have been implemented individually, without taking into account the possible interactions and impacts among them. In this paper, we focus on two policy instruments: water quota and uniform water tax. The paper demonstrates how packaging and sequencing sets of policy interventions, with possible triggers to initiate their time of implementation, may be more effective in achieving a sustainable groundwater management than single policies when environmental externalities exist. The policy instruments are applied to the Western la Mancha aquifer in Southeast Spain, a major aquifer that is managed by a command and control approach. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Trade policy-making in a model of legislative bargaining

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Celik, Levent; Karabay, B.; McLaren, J.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 91, č. 2 (2013), s. 179-190 ISSN 0022-1996 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : trade policy * multilateral legislative bargaining * political economy Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.443, year: 2013

  5. Income Distribution Impacts of Irrigation Water Distribution Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampath, Rajan K.

    1984-06-01

    In the majority of lesser developed countries (LDC's) there is acute inequality in income distribution in the rural sector, particularly between large and small farms on the one hand and between land owners and the landless on the other. Irrigation water distribution policy of the government is both an economic and political problem. It has both equity and efficiency implications. It has effects on both the level and distribution of income. This paper deals with the conditions under which using water redistribution as an effective governmental policy variable can reduce inequality in the distribution of income. This paper also deals with the relationship between the objectives of equity and efficiency in water distribution under different objective realities, such as dualistic versus nondualistic conditions, two-sector versus three-sector modeling, optimum versus equal water distribution, specifically to derive the conditions under which promotion of equity promotes efficiency and vice versa and the conditions under which it does not.

  6. Impacts of a United States' biofuel policy on New Zealand's agricultural sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saunders, Caroline; Kaye-Blake, William; Marshall, Liz; Greenhalgh, Suzie; De Aragao Pereira, Mariana

    2009-01-01

    The rise in oil prices has spurred interest in biofuels. Policies in the United States like the renewable fuel standard (RFS) have led to an expansion of ethanol production, while the New Zealand government has mandated a minimum level of biofuel sales. The research used a partial equilibrium model of international trade to quantify the price and farmgate income effects of the US RFS policy. The goal was to examine the competition between food and biofuel production and to quantify the impact of the policy on the agricultural sector in New Zealand. The RFS policy has a significant impact on corn prices, but a small effect on livestock prices and production. There thus appears to be little conflict between food and fuel uses for corn at the level of the RFS mandate. New Zealand's pasture-based livestock sector benefits from the use of corn for ethanol production: it receives better prices for its products, but does not face the same input cost increases as competitors. The results suggest that New Zealand faces an interesting decision: it could support investment in biofuels research, or benefit from the biofuels boom through the indirect impacts on demand and prices for meat and milk. (author)

  7. The International Rare Diseases Research Consortium: Policies and Guidelines to maximize impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lochmüller, Hanns; Torrent I Farnell, Josep; Le Cam, Yann; Jonker, Anneliene H; Lau, Lilian Pl; Baynam, Gareth; Kaufmann, Petra; Dawkins, Hugh Js; Lasko, Paul; Austin, Christopher P; Boycott, Kym M

    2017-12-01

    The International Rare Diseases Research Consortium (IRDiRC) has agreed on IRDiRC Policies and Guidelines, following extensive deliberations and discussions in 2012 and 2013, as a first step towards improving coordination of research efforts worldwide. The 25 funding members and 3 patient umbrella organizations (as of early 2013) of IRDiRC, a consortium of research funders that focuses on improving diagnosis and therapy for rare disease patients, agreed in Dublin, Ireland in April 2013 on the Policies and Guidelines that emphasize collaboration in rare disease research, the involvement of patients and their representatives in all relevant aspects of research, as well as the sharing of data and resources. The Policies and Guidelines provide guidance on ontologies, diagnostics, biomarkers, patient registries, biobanks, natural history, therapeutics, models, publication, intellectual property, and communication. Most IRDiRC members-currently nearly 50 strong-have since incorporated its policies in their funding calls and some have chosen to exceed the requirements laid out, for instance in relation to data sharing. The IRDiRC Policies and Guidelines are the first, detailed agreement of major public and private funding organizations worldwide to govern rare disease research, and may serve as a template for other areas of international research collaboration. While it is too early to assess their full impact on research productivity and patient benefit, the IRDiRC Policies and Guidelines have already contributed significantly to improving transparency and collaboration in rare disease research.

  8. Model-based inflation forecasts and monetary policy rules

    OpenAIRE

    Wouters, Raf; Dombrecht, Michel

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, the interaction between inflation and monetary policy rules is analysed within the framework of a dynamic general equilibrium model derived from optimising behaviour and rational expectations. Using model simulations, it is illustrated that the control of monetary policy over the inflation process is strongly dependent on the role of forward looking expectations in the price and wage setting process and on the credibility of monetary policy in the expectation formation process ...

  9. A Model for Assessing the Gender Aspect in Economic Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ona Rakauskienė

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of research is to develop a conceptual model for assessing the impact of the gender aspect on economic policy at macro– and microeconomic levels. The research methodology is based on analysing scientific approaches to the gender aspect in economics and gender–responsive budgeting as well as determining the impact of the gender aspect on GDP, foreign trade, the state budget and the labour market. First, the major findings encompass the main idea of a conceptual model proposing that a socio–economic picture of society can be accepted as completed only when, alongside public and private sectors, includes the care/reproductive sector that is dominated by women and creating added value in the form of educated human resources; second, macroeconomics is not neutral in terms of gender equality. Gender asymmetry is manifested not only at the level of microeconomics (labour market and business but also at the level of macroeconomics (GDP, the state budget and foreign trade, which has a negative impact on economic growth and state budget revenues. In this regard, economic decisions, according to the principles of gender equality and in order to achieve gender equality in economics, must be made, as the gender aspect has to be also implemented at the macroeconomic level.

  10. Knowledge brokering on emissions modelling in Strategic Environmental Assessment of Estonian energy policy with special reference to the LEAP model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuldna, Piret, E-mail: piret.kuldna@seit.ee [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Peterson, Kaja [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Kuhi-Thalfeldt, Reeli [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Tallinn University of Technology, Ehitajate tee 5, Tallinn 19086 (Estonia)

    2015-09-15

    Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) serves as a platform for bringing together researchers, policy developers and other stakeholders to evaluate and communicate significant environmental and socio-economic effects of policies, plans and programmes. Quantitative computer models can facilitate knowledge exchange between various parties that strive to use scientific findings to guide policy-making decisions. The process of facilitating knowledge generation and exchange, i.e. knowledge brokerage, has been increasingly explored, but there is not much evidence in the literature on how knowledge brokerage activities are used in full cycles of SEAs which employ quantitative models. We report on the SEA process of the national energy plan with reflections on where and how the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used for knowledge brokerage on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers. Our main suggestion is that applying a quantitative model not only in ex ante, but also ex post scenario modelling and associated impact assessment can facilitate systematic and inspiring knowledge exchange process on a policy problem and capacity building of participating actors. - Highlights: • We examine the knowledge brokering on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers in a full cycle of SEA. • Knowledge exchange process can evolve at any modelling stage within SEA. • Ex post scenario modelling enables systematic knowledge exchange and learning on a policy problem.

  11. Knowledge brokering on emissions modelling in Strategic Environmental Assessment of Estonian energy policy with special reference to the LEAP model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuldna, Piret; Peterson, Kaja; Kuhi-Thalfeldt, Reeli

    2015-01-01

    Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) serves as a platform for bringing together researchers, policy developers and other stakeholders to evaluate and communicate significant environmental and socio-economic effects of policies, plans and programmes. Quantitative computer models can facilitate knowledge exchange between various parties that strive to use scientific findings to guide policy-making decisions. The process of facilitating knowledge generation and exchange, i.e. knowledge brokerage, has been increasingly explored, but there is not much evidence in the literature on how knowledge brokerage activities are used in full cycles of SEAs which employ quantitative models. We report on the SEA process of the national energy plan with reflections on where and how the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used for knowledge brokerage on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers. Our main suggestion is that applying a quantitative model not only in ex ante, but also ex post scenario modelling and associated impact assessment can facilitate systematic and inspiring knowledge exchange process on a policy problem and capacity building of participating actors. - Highlights: • We examine the knowledge brokering on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers in a full cycle of SEA. • Knowledge exchange process can evolve at any modelling stage within SEA. • Ex post scenario modelling enables systematic knowledge exchange and learning on a policy problem

  12. Ex Ante Impact Assessment of Policies Affecting Land Use, Part B: Application of the Analytical Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharina Helming

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The use of science-based tools for impact assessment has increasingly gained focus in addressing the complexity of interactions between environment, society, and economy. For integrated assessment of policies affecting land use, an analytical framework was developed. The aim of our work was to apply the analytical framework for specific scenario cases and in combination with quantitative and qualitative application methods. The analytical framework was tested for two cases involving the ex ante impact assessment of: (1 a European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP financial reform scenario employing a modeling approach and combined with a comprehensive indicator analysis and valuation; and (2 a regional bioenergy policy scenario, employing a fully participatory approach. The results showed that European land use in general is less sensitive to changes in the Common Agricultural Policy, but in the context of regions there can be significant impacts on the functions of land use. In general, the implementation of the analytical framework for impact assessment proved to be doable with both methods, i.e., with the quantitative modeling and with the qualitative participatory approach. A key advantage of using the system of linked quantitative models is that it makes possible the simultaneous consideration of all relevant sectors of the economy without abstaining from a great level of detail for sectors of particular interest. Other advantages lie in the incontestable character of the results. Based on neutral, existing data with a fixed set of settings and regions, an absolute comparability and reproducibility throughout Europe can be maintained. Analyzing the pros and cons of both approaches showed that they could be used complementarily rather than be seen as competing alternatives.

  13. Modeling pellet impact drilling process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalyov, A. V.; Ryabchikov, S. Ya; Isaev, Ye D.; Ulyanova, O. S.

    2016-03-01

    The paper describes pellet impact drilling which could be used to increase the drilling speed and the rate of penetration when drilling hard rocks. Pellet impact drilling implies rock destruction by metal pellets with high kinetic energy in the immediate vicinity of the earth formation encountered. The pellets are circulated in the bottom hole by a high velocity fluid jet, which is the principle component of the ejector pellet impact drill bit. The experiments conducted has allowed modeling the process of pellet impact drilling, which creates the scientific and methodological basis for engineering design of drilling operations under different geo-technical conditions.

  14. Maryland's Model Policy to Address Bullying, Harassment, or Intimidation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maryland State Department of Education, 2016

    2016-01-01

    In accordance with the provisions of Section 7-424.1 of the Education Article of the Annotated Code of Maryland, the Maryland State Board of Education has developed and adopted a Model Policy to address bullying, harassment, or intimidation. This report presents the Model Policy, which is organized into the following eight points: (1) Prohibition…

  15. German Energiewende and the heating market – Impact and limits of policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauermann, Klaas

    2016-01-01

    The German Energiewende envisages achieving a climate-neutral building stock in 2050 by means of two major pillars of regulation. First, residential buildings should consume 80% less primary energy and second; the remaining energy demand should be covered primarily with renewables. This paper simulates the future German heating market under different policy scenarios in order to evaluate the impact and limits of recent and conceivable policies. The investigation is based upon a dual model approach, linking a residential heating model to a discrete choice model. The major finding is that current regulations are not suitable for the achievement of governmental targets. Scenario calculations show that additional carbon emission reductions, triggered by the current regulatory regime, are falling short of expectations. In terms of economic efficiency, all calculated policy alternatives outperform the regulation currently in place. This allows to draw the conclusion that carbon emission reductions can be achieved without a major increase in cost. The model results highlight two policy implications. First, a rising mandatory share of renewables in the heating market is needed for target achievement and can be cost effectively. Second, renewable obligations for heating systems must include the existing building stock to achieve the postulated political targets. - Highlights: •The residential heating market accounts for major share of carbon emissions. •The disregard of the building stock weakens the impact of recent regulation. •Current regulation preserves a heating market dominated by fossil fuels. •A significant renewable share can be achieved through direct regulation. •Alternative policy leads to emission reductions without major increases in costs.

  16. The role of public policies in reducing smoking: the Minnesota SimSmoke tobacco policy model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, David T; Boyle, Raymond G; Abrams, David B

    2012-11-01

    Following the landmark lawsuit and settlement with the tobacco industry, Minnesota pursued the implementation of stricter tobacco control policies, including tax increases, mass media campaigns, smokefree air laws, and cessation treatment policies. Modeling is used to examine policy effects on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. To estimate the effect of tobacco control policies in Minnesota on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths using the SimSmoke simulation model. Minnesota data starting in 1993 are applied to SimSmoke, a simulation model used to examine the effect of tobacco control policies over time on smoking initiation and cessation. Upon validating the model against smoking prevalence, SimSmoke is used to distinguish the effect of policies implemented since 1993 on smoking prevalence. Using standard attribution methods, SimSmoke also estimates deaths averted as a result of the policies. SimSmoke predicts smoking prevalence accurately between 1993 and 2011. Since 1993, a relative reduction in smoking rates of 29% by 2011 and of 41% by 2041 can be attributed to tobacco control policies, mainly tax increases, smokefree air laws, media campaigns, and cessation treatment programs. Moreover, 48,000 smoking-attributable deaths will be averted by 2041. Minnesota SimSmoke demonstrates that tobacco control policies, especially taxes, have substantially reduced smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Taxes, smokefree air laws, mass media, cessation treatment policies, and youth-access enforcement contributed to the decline in prevalence and deaths averted, with the strongest component being taxes. With stronger policies, for example, increasing cigarette taxes to $4.00 per pack, Minnesota's smoking rate could be reduced by another 13%, and 7200 deaths could be averted by 2041. Copyright © 2012 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Weighing the Costs and Benefits of Renewables Portfolio Standards:A Comparative Analysis of State-Level Policy Impact Projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Cliff; Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2007-01-16

    State renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have emerged as one of the most important policy drivers of renewable energy capacity expansion in the U.S. Collectively, these policies now apply to roughly 40% of U.S. electricity load, and may have substantial impacts on electricity markets, ratepayers, and local economies. As RPS policies have been proposed or adopted in an increasing number of states, a growing number of studies have attempted to quantify the potential impacts of these policies, focusing primarily on projecting cost impacts, but sometimes also estimating macroeconomic and environmental effects. This report synthesizes and analyzes the results and methodologies of 28 distinct state or utility-level RPS cost impact analyses completed since 1998. Together, these studies model proposed or adopted RPS policies in 18 different states. We highlight the key findings of these studies on the costs and benefits of RPS policies, examine the sensitivity of projected costs to model assumptions, assess the attributes of different modeling approaches, and suggest possible areas of improvement for future RPS analysis.

  18. Modelling inspection policies for building maintenance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christer, A H

    1982-08-01

    A method of assessing the potential of an inspection maintenance policy as opposed to an existing breakdown maintenance policy for a building complex is developed. The method is based upon information likely to be available and specific subjective assessments which could be made available. Estimates of the expected number of defects identified at an inspection and the consequential cost saving are presented as functions of the inspection frequency.

  19. Arab Spring vs. Zero Problems Policy Impact of the Arab Spring on Trade Expansion of Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Engin Sorhun

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Although Turkey has historically concentrated its trade with the European Union (EU it has diversified its trade markets with the neighbouring regions and different group of countries during the last decade. Among them, Arab countries have come into prominence. Especially, following the “zero problems with neighbours” policy (ZPN, pursued by Turkey since 2002, the trade volume with the Middle Eastern neighbours has increased faster than that with its traditional partners. Nevertheless so called “Arab Spring” has started to manifest its effects on this trend. It deteriorates not only the economies of the concerned countries but also Turkey’s trade expansion. This paper aims: (i to test through a gravity model the positive impacts of the ZPN policy and the negative impact of the Arab Spring on the trade expansion with the Spring Countries; and (ii to reveal the positive impact of the policy change and the negative impact of the uprising movements on the realization of trade potential by Turkey in the Spring Countries.

  20. Probabilistic Decision Tools for Determining Impacts of Agricultural Development Policy on Household Nutrition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitney, Cory W.; Lanzanova, Denis; Muchiri, Caroline; Shepherd, Keith D.; Rosenstock, Todd S.; Krawinkel, Michael; Tabuti, John R. S.; Luedeling, Eike

    2018-03-01

    Governments around the world have agreed to end hunger and food insecurity and to improve global nutrition, largely through changes to agriculture and food systems. However, they are faced with a lot of uncertainty when making policy decisions, since any agricultural changes will influence social and biophysical systems, which could yield either positive or negative nutrition outcomes. We outline a holistic probability modeling approach with Bayesian Network (BN) models for nutritional impacts resulting from agricultural development policy. The approach includes the elicitation of expert knowledge for impact model development, including sensitivity analysis and value of information calculations. It aims at a generalizable methodology that can be applied in a wide range of contexts. To showcase this approach, we develop an impact model of Vision 2040, Uganda's development strategy, which, among other objectives, seeks to transform the country's agricultural landscape from traditional systems to large-scale commercial agriculture. Model results suggest that Vision 2040 is likely to have negative outcomes for the rural livelihoods it intends to support; it may have no appreciable influence on household hunger but, by influencing preferences for and access to quality nutritional foods, may increase the prevalence of micronutrient deficiency. The results highlight the trade-offs that must be negotiated when making decisions regarding agriculture for nutrition, and the capacity of BNs to make these trade-offs explicit. The work illustrates the value of BNs for supporting evidence-based agricultural development decisions.

  1. Moving communities toward policy change: APPEAL's 4-prong policy change model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Elisa K; Lew, Rod

    2013-09-01

    Policy change is recognized for underlying much of the success of tobacco control. However, there is little evidence and attention on how Asian American and Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (AA and NHPI) communities may engage in policy change. Challenges for AA and NHPI communities include the racial/ethnic and geographic diversity, and tobacco data accurately representing the communities. Over the past decade, the Asian Pacific Partners for Empowerment, Advocacy and Leadership (APPEAL) has worked to develop and implement policy change for AA and NHPI communities. This article describes APPEAL's 4-prong policy change model, in the context of its overall strategic framework for policy change with communities that accounts for varying levels of readiness and leadership capacity, and targets four different levels of policy change (community, mainstream institution, legislative, and corporate). The health promotion implication of this framework for tobacco control policy engagement is for improving understanding of effective pathways to policy change, promoting innovative methods for policy analysis, and translating them into effective implementation and sustainability of policy initiatives. The APPEAL strategic framework can transcend into other communities and health topics that ultimately may contribute to the elimination of health disparities.

  2. Moving Communities Toward Policy Change: APPEAL’s 4-Prong Policy Change Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Elisa K.; Lew, Rod

    2014-01-01

    Policy change is recognized for underlying much of the success of tobacco control. However, there is little evidence and attention on how Asian American and Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (AA and NHPI) communities may engage in policy change. Challenges for AA and NHPI communities include the racial/ethnic and geographic diversity, and tobacco data accurately representing the communities. Over the past decade, the Asian Pacific Partners for Empowerment, Advocacy and Leadership (APPEAL) has worked to develop and implement policy change for AA and NHPI communities. This article describes APPEAL’s 4-prong policy change model, in the context of its overall strategic framework for policy change with communities that accounts for varying levels of readiness and leadership capacity, and targets four different levels of policy change (community, mainstream institution, legislative, and corporate). The health promotion implication of this framework for tobacco control policy engagement is for improving understanding of effective pathways to policy change, promoting innovative methods for policy analysis, and translating them into effective implementation and sustainability of policy initiatives. The APPEAL strategic framework can transcend into other communities and health topics that ultimately may contribute to the elimination of health disparities. PMID:23707962

  3. The Impact of Academic Freedom Policies on Critical Thinking Instruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shirley Fessel

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Critical thinking enjoys almost universal support, except when applied to controversial topics. Yet it is these topics that are often the most effective initiators of critical thinking exercises that improve students’ rational approaches to challenging problems. The use of controversial issues to promote critical thinking requires an institutional commitment to academic freedom in order to survive. In some institutional contexts, the most crucial need for critical thinking is the very condition under which it is least likely to be applied. Instead, avoidance of controversy seems to be the predominant policy of institutions fearful of expensive lawsuits or damaging public relations. Several trends are decreasing the likelihood that critical thinking is applied in the classroom to challenging topics: demands for increased accountability from legislatures; scrutiny of adopted content standards; oversight of Internet and other intellectual work of professors affiliated with the universities; student challenges to faculty instruction; and attempts to curtail ideological diversity. This paper describes these current dynamics which erode academic freedom and thus the ability to apply critical thinking to controversial topics. The paper also recommends that institutions and faculty adopt clearly delineated policies related to academic freedom in order to ensure faculty freedom to promote critical thinking. Awareness of how these trends impact the instructional climate enables teachers to design instruction and be more proactive in guaranteeing that critical thinking about controversial topics is able to flourish under academic freedom.

  4. The Impact of Academic Freedom Policies on Critical Thinking Instruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shirley Fessel, MA, MEd

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Critical thinking enjoys almost universal support, except when applied to controversial topics. Yet it is these topics that are often the most effective initiators of critical thinking exercises that improve students’ rational approaches to challenging problems. The use of controversial issues to promote critical thinking requires an institutional commitment to academic freedom in order to survive. In some institutional contexts, the most crucial need for critical thinking is the very condition under which it is least likely to be applied. Instead, avoidance of controversy seems to be the predominant policy of institutions fearful of expensive lawsuits or damaging public relations. Several trends are decreasing the likelihood that critical thinking is applied in the classroom to challenging topics: demands for increased accountability from legislatures; scrutiny of adopted content standards; oversight of Internet and other intellectual work of professors affiliated with the universities; student challenges to faculty instruction; and attempts to curtail ideological diversity. This paper describes these current dynamics which erode academic freedom and thus the ability to apply critical thinking to controversial topics. The paper also recommends that institutions and faculty adopt clearly delineated policies related to academic freedom in order to ensure faculty freedom to promote critical thinking. Awareness of how these trends impact the instructional climate enables teachers to design instruction and be more proactive in guaranteeing that critical thinking about controversial topics is able to flourish under academic freedom.

  5. Energy exporters and climate change. Potential economic impacts of climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wit, R.C.N.

    1997-06-01

    This review paper has been written on a commission by the Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA) in London and is part of a project to investigate the possible impact of greenhouse gas mitigation policies on energy markets and therefore on countries exporting oil, gas and coal. The aim of the project conducted by RIIA is to achieve a better understanding of the role of energy exporters in international climate change negotiations on the road towards the second Conference of Parties in Kyoto at the end of 1997 and the underlying national strategies. All four 'economy'-oriented global model studies reviewed in this paper indicate that CO2-reduction policies would cause wide differences in welfare effects across regions. It appears that energy-exporting countries would suffer the greatest welfare losses. Although several policy instruments can be implemented to achieve CO2-emission reductions, only carbon taxes are considered in the models. The model results show that if world level CO2 emissions are approximately stabilized at their 1990 levels, the cumulative losses in GDP of energy exporters generally range between 3% and 12% by 2010. It should be strongly emphasized that the sign and magnitude of the economic impact of CO2 policy on energy exporters depend critically on how the policy instrument is designed. In the case of a carbon tax the following factors are crucial: (1) the choice between a consumption and a production tax, (2) whether it is based on a global or unilateral agreement, (3) the mode of revenue redistribution among countries and (4) whether emission trading is allowed. 27 refs

  6. Policy Impact on the Chinese Stock Market: From the 1994 Bailout Policies to the 2015 Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang-Chao Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available From the 1994 bailout policies to the 2015 Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the policy impact on the Chinese stock market has changed over time. By May 2015, global investors can directly invest in a more legalized and normalized Chinese stock market, whereas they are still concerned about the policy-oriented market and its attendant risks. In this study, we employ the family of GARCH models to investigate the structural changes in risks with the implementation of a series of policies. Our results show that although many policies improve or stabilize the stock market, certain policies lead to substantial volatility. Among them, macro-control policies and transaction cost adjustments are a double-edged sword, which should be used with caution. Furthermore, with opening-up policies being launched recently, the Chinese stock market has entered a new stage in which it affects international capital markets. However, the increased risks, which may result in a sharp turnaround, cause worry.

  7. Discharge Fee Policy Analysis: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model of Water Resources and Water Environments

    OpenAIRE

    Guohua Fang; Ting Wang; Xinyi Si; Xin Wen; Yu Liu

    2016-01-01

    To alleviate increasingly serious water pollution and shortages in developing countries, various kinds of policies have been implemented by local governments. It is vital to quantify and evaluate the performance and potential economic impacts of these policies. This study develops a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the regional economic and environmental effects of discharge fees. Firstly, water resources and water environment factors are separated from the input and out...

  8. Innovation in information society policy : Rationale, policy mix and impact in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poel, M.; Kool, L.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to explore how innovation has become more important in information society policy and what the implications are for policy design, policy coordination and policy evaluation. Design/methodology/approach - Against the background of European information society

  9. Revisiting the impacts of oil price increases on monetary policy implementation in the largest oil importers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurtac Yildirim

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to test the impacts of oil price increases on monetary policy implementation in the largest oil importers. For that purpose, we estimate structural vector error correction (SVEC models to show the impacts of oil price increases on industrial production, consumer prices and immediate interest rates which are the elements of Taylor rule for the four largest oil importers (the USA, the EU, China and Japan. Our results indicate that oil price increases transmit to output and inflation and lead to fluctuations in industrial production, consumer prices and immediate interest rates which in turn influence the monetary policy stance in the following periods. The basic conclusion of research is that the channels through which oil prices affect output, inflation and interest rates should be identified by the monetary policy authorities of the USA, the EU, China and Japan. We also emphasize the importance of the determination of the optimal monetary policy framework to eliminate the negative consequences of oil price increases.

  10. IMPACTS OF GROUP-BASED SIGNAL CONTROL POLICY ON DRIVER BEHAVIOR AND INTERSECTION SAFETY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keshuang TANG

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Unlike the typical stage-based policy commonly applied in Japan, the group-based control (often called movement-based in the traffic control industry in Japan refers to such a control pattern that the controller is capable of separately allocating time to each signal group instead of stage based on traffic demand. In order to investigate its applicability at signalized intersections in Japan, an intersection located in Yokkaichi City of Mie Prefecture was selected as an experimental application site by the Japan Universal Traffic Management Society (UTMS. Based on the data collected at the intersection before and after implementing the group-based control policy respectively, this study evaluated the impacts of such a policy on driver behavior and intersection safety. To specify those impacts, a few models utilizing cycle-based data were first developed to interpret the occurrence probability and rate of red-light-running (RLR. Furthermore, analyses were performed on the yellow-entry time (Ye of the last cleared vehicle and post encroachment time (PET during the phase switching. Conclusions supported that the group-based control policy, along with certain other factors, directly or indirectly influenced the RLR behavior of through and right-turn traffics. Meanwhile, it has potential safety benefits as well, indicated by the declined Ye and increased PET values.

  11. Impact of Different Spacing Policies for Adaptive Cruise Control on Traffic and Energy Consumption of Electric Vehicles

    OpenAIRE

    Bayar, Bilgehan; Sajadi Alamdari, Seyed Amin; Viti, Francesco; Voos, Holger

    2016-01-01

    This paper assesses the impact of different spacing policies for Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) systems on traffic and environment. The largest deal of existing studies focus on assessing the performance in terms of safety, while only few deal with the effect of ACC on the traffic flow and the environment. In particular, very little is know on traffic stability and energy consumption. In this study, the vehicles equipped with ACC are modelled and controlled by two different spacing policies. B...

  12. The near-term impacts of carbon mitigation policies on manufacturing industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenstern, Richard D.; Ho Mun; Shih, J.-S.; Zhang Xuehua

    2004-01-01

    Who pays for new policies to reduce carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions in the United States? This paper considers a slice of the question by examining the near-term impact on domestic manufacturing industries of both upstream (economy-wide) and downstream (electric power industry only) carbon mitigation policies. Detailed Census data on the electricity use of four-digit manufacturing industries are combined with input-output information on inter-industry purchases to paint a detailed picture of carbon use, including effects on final demand. Regional information on electricity supply and use by region is also incorporated. A relatively simple model is developed which yields estimates of the relative burdens within the manufacturing sector of alternative carbon policies. Overall, the principal conclusion is that within the manufacturing sector (which by definition excludes coal production and electricity generation), only a small number of industries would bear a disproportionate short-term burden of a carbon tax or similar policy. Not surprisingly, an electricity-only policy affects very different manufacturing industries than an economy-wide carbon tax

  13. Economic impact of integrated policies to respond to threats of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanson, D.A.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes the Argonne Multisector Industry Growth Assessment Model (AMIGA), which is a tool for policy impact analysis in the context of the economy as a whole and its individual sectors. AMIGA is currently being used by the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to help understand and evaluate these DOE programs, including more efficient motor vehicle programs. The steps being taken under the US Climate Change Action Plan are being assessed using AMIGA. However, because AMIGA represents prices of goods and services and the wages of workers, AMIGA has the capability to represent incentive approaches to greenhouse gas emissions reductions such as a carbon tax. The ''best'' policy option in a ''second-best'' world may be a mix, or bundle of incentives, voluntary programs, and command-and-control regulations. Detailed reports on model documentation and simulation studies will be available from the author

  14. Assessing the impact of information and framing on support for climate policy action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatfield-Dodds, Steve

    2007-01-01

    Full text: A significant share of the public appears mislead by the way the economic impacts of emissions reductions are traditionally communicated. This misunderstanding is associated with reduced support for policy action, and risks long term climate impacts that would be avoided if results were communicated properly. Correct this basis appears likely to have a larger effect on attitudes than new research and information on the impacts of climate change. Government action to achieve deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions - like other major policy changes -depends on public support, which in turn depends on perceptions of policy impacts. This paper reports research exploring the effect of three factors on support for policy action: the way that policy impacts are described; the magnitude of these impacts, and additional information on climate change impacts, provided internally through the surveys and externally through the release of An Inconvenient Truth and media coverage of the Stern Report (2006). The research used split sample phone and internet surveys (n = 4264) conducted in Australia and New Zealand in four waves from April to December 2006. The study gives rise to four major findings: Support for policy action is sensitive to the magnitude of expected economic impacts, with predicted support varying from 27% to 84% across the different levels of policy impact presented; Current approaches to communicating policy impacts are associated with public support for policy action being 8-10% lower than it would be if policy impacts were well communicated. This bias may be corrected by describing policy impacts in terms of changes relative to current levels - stating that incomes continue to rise - as well as describing impacts relative to the base case; The reduction in support associated with these biases is much larger than the increase in support associated with providing credible additional information on the impacts of climate change; Significantly more than

  15. Mexico SimSmoke: how changes in tobacco control policies would impact smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleischer, Nancy L; Thrasher, James F; Reynales-Shigematsu, Luz Myriam; Cummings, K Michael; Meza, Rafael; Zhang, Yian; Levy, David T

    2017-07-01

    We examined the effect of tobacco control policies in Mexico on smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths using the Mexico SimSmoke model. The model is based on the previously developed SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy, and uses population size, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data for Mexico. It assesses, individually, and in combination, the effect of six tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths. Policies included: cigarette excise taxes, smoke-free laws, anti-smoking public education campaigns, marketing restrictions, access to tobacco cessation treatments and enforcement against tobacco sales youth. The model estimates that, if Mexico were to adopt strong tobacco control policies compared to current policy levels, smoking prevalence could be reduced by 30% in the next decade and by 50% by 2053; an additional 470,000 smoking-related premature deaths could be averted over the next 40 years. The greatest impact on smoking and smoking-related deaths would be achieved by raising excise taxes on cigarettes from 55% to at least 70% of the retail price, followed by strong youth access enforcement and access to cessation treatments. Implementing tobacco control policies in Mexico could reduce smoking prevalence by 50%, and prevent 470,000 smoking-related deaths by 2053.

  16. Modeling policy mix to improve the competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roland Y H Silitonga

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this research is to develop a model that will explain the impact of government policies to the competitiveness of palm oil industry. The model involves two commodities in this industry, namely crude palm oil (CPO and refined palm oil (RPO, each has different added value. Design/methodology/approach: The model built will define the behavior of government in controlling palm oil industry, and their interactions with macro-environment, in order to improve the competitiveness of the industry. Therefore the first step was to map the main activities in this industry using value chain analysis. After that a conceptual model was built, where the output of the model is competitiveness of the industry based on market share. The third step was model formulation. The model is then utilized to simulate the policy mix given by government in improving the competitiveness of Palm Oil Industry. Research limitations/implications: The model was developed using only some policies which give direct impact to the competitiveness of the industry. For macro environment input, only price is considered in this model. Practical implications: The model can simulate the output of the industry for various government policies mix given to the industry. Originality/value: This research develops a model that can represent the structure and relationship between industry, government and macro environment, using value chain analysis and hierarchical multilevel system approach.

  17. Modeling policy mix to improve the competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silitonga, R. Y.H.; Siswanto, J.; Simatupang, T.; Bahagia, S.N.

    2016-07-01

    The purpose of this research is to develop a model that will explain the impact of government policies to the competitiveness of palm oil industry. The model involves two commodities in this industry, namely crude palm oil (CPO) and refined palm oil (RPO), each has different added value. The model built will define the behavior of government in controlling palm oil industry, and their interactions with macro-environment, in order to improve the competitiveness of the industry. Therefore the first step was to map the main activities in this industry using value chain analysis. After that a conceptual model was built, where the output of the model is competitiveness of the industry based on market share. The third step was model formulation. The model is then utilized to simulate the policy mix given by government in improving the competitiveness of Palm Oil Industry. The model was developed using only some policies which give direct impact to the competitiveness of the industry. For macro environment input, only price is considered in this model. The model can simulate the output of the industry for various government policies mix given to the industry. This research develops a model that can represent the structure and relationship between industry, government and macro environment, using value chain analysis and hierarchical multilevel system approach. (Author)

  18. State policy affecting pain management: recent improvements and the positive impact of regulatory health policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilson, Aaron M; Maurer, Martha A; Joranson, David E

    2005-10-01

    Criteria-driven policy analysis resources from the University of Wisconsin Pain and Policy Studies Group (PPSG) evaluated drug control and professional practice policies that can influence use of controlled substances for pain management, and documented changes over a 3-year period. Additional research was needed to determine the extent of change, the types of messages contained in the policies, and what has contributed to changing policy content. Four research aims guided this study: (1) evaluate change between 2000 and 2003 of state policy that can affect pain relief, (2) describe content differences for statutes, regulations, guidelines, and policy statements, (3) evaluate differences between policies specific to pain management and policies governing general healthcare practice, and (4) compare content of policies specific to pain management created by healthcare regulatory boards to those created by state legislatures. Results showed that more current policies, especially policies regulating health professionals, tend to encourage pain management and avoid language that restricts professional decision-making and patient treatment. In addition, pain policies from healthcare regulatory boards were generally less restrictive than statutes or policies that govern general healthcare practice. These findings suggest that the positive policy change results primarily from state medical, pharmacy, and nursing boards adopting policies promoting pain management and the use of opioids, while containing few if any restrictions. Despite this improvement, further progress can be made when states continue to abrogate additional restrictions or clinically obsolete provisions from policies. PPSG policy evaluations provide guidance to lawmakers, healthcare regulators, and clinicians who are striving to achieve balanced policy, an attainable but redoubtable goal, to benefit patient care.

  19. The impact of environmental policy on economic indicators. Moving from global to sectoral and regional perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voigt, Sebastian

    2013-07-01

    In recent times, environmental, energy and climate policies have gained tremendously in importance. Not least, this is due to the latest research findings related to climate change and the resulting growing environmental awareness among people. However, policy approaches to combat environmental pollution and climate change differ both in their intention and in their economic impacts. For instance, command-and-control instruments such as performance or technology standards have different implications than market-based mechanisms such as permit trading of greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, sectoral and regional characteristics play an important role when implementing and assessing policy measures. This applies both to the attainability of the targets and to the available instruments. The present doctoral thesis addresses this point and analyzes in several essays different policy instruments and their economic effects from global, regional and sectoral perspectives. In this respect, it deals with various, often very heterogeneous question: How are specific policy types implemented in different countries? What is the CO2 abatement potential in specific regions and sectors? What policy measures can be plausibly used to exploit this potential? How can technological developments and technology-directed policy interventions contribute to improve energy efficiency? Does the promotion of certain energy sources necessarily create positive production and employment effects? To answer these and further questions, different economic methods are applied that accommodate the particular problem, where special emphasis is put on computable general equilibrium modeling. The aim of this work is to contribute to the academic and political debate on measures to combat environmental and climate problems.

  20. Measuring the Impact of Financial Intermediation: Linking Contract Theory to Econometric Policy Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townsend, Robert M; Urzua, Sergio S

    2009-09-01

    We study the impact that financial intermediation can have on productivity through the alleviation of credit constraints in occupation choice and/or an improved allocation of risk, using both static and dynamic structural models as well as reduced form OLS and IV regressions. Our goal in this paper is to bring these two strands of the literature together. Even though, under certain assumptions, IV regressions can recover accurately the true model-generated local average treatment effect, these are quantitatively different, in order of magnitude and even sign, from other policy impact parameters (e.g., ATE and TT). We also show that laying out clearly alternative models can guide the search for instruments. On the other hand adding more margins of decision, i.e., occupation choice and intermediation jointly, or adding more periods with promised utilities as key state variables, as in optimal multi-period contracts, can cause the misinterpretation of IV as the causal effect of interest.

  1. Energy Market Impacts of Nuclear Power Phase-Out Policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glomsroed, Solveig; Taoyuan, Wei; Mideksa, Torben; Samset, Bjoern H.

    2013-01-01

    After the Fukushima disaster in March 2011 safety concerns have escalated and policies towards nuclear power are being reconsidered in several countries. This article presents a study of the effect of nuclear power phase-out on regional electricity prices. We consider 4 scenarios with various levels of ambition to scale down the nuclear industry using a multiple region, multiple sector global general equilibrium model. Non-nuclear power production follows the New Policies scenario of the World Energy Outlook (IEA, 2010). Phase-out in Germany and Switzerland increases electricity prices of OECD-Europe moderately by 2-3 per cent early on to 4-5 per cent by 2035 if transmission capacity within the region is sufficient. If all regions shut down old plants built before 2011, North America, OECD-Europe and Japan face increasing electricity prices in the range of 23-28 per cent in 2035. These price increases illustrate the incentives for further investments in renewable electricity or improved technologies in nuclear power production. (Author)

  2. Energy market impacts of nuclear power phase-out policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glomsroed, Solveig; Taoyuan, Wei; Mideksa, Torben; Samset, Bjoern H.

    2013-03-01

    After the Fukushima disaster in March 2011 safety concerns have escalated and policies towards nuclear power are being reconsidered in several countries. This article presents a study of the effect of nuclear power phase-out on regional electricity prices. We consider 4 scenarios with various levels of ambition to scale down the nuclear industry using a multiple region, multiple sector global general equilibrium model. Non-nuclear power production follows the New Policies scenario of the World Energy Outlook (IEA, 2010). Phase-out in Germany and Switzerland increases electricity prices of OECD-Europe moderately by 2-3 per cent early on to 4-5 per cent by 2035 if transmission capacity within the region is sufficient. If all regions shut down old plants built before 2011, North America, OECD-Europe and Japan face increasing electricity prices in the range of 23-28 per cent in 2035. These price increases illustrate the incentives for further investments in renewable electricity or improved technologies in nuclear power production. (Author)

  3. Description and comparison of energy impact assessment models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burnett, R.A.; Fraley, D.W.

    1977-04-01

    During the past few years the need for more comprehensive analytical techniques for assessing the environmental, economic, and social impacts of energy supply-demand systems and related public policy-making activities has increased. The research and academic communities have responded to this need by developing a wide range of models and other analytical tools for energy impact estimation. The models generally fall into two categories: large-scale and specialized. This report examines the general features and shortcomings of current large-scale and specialized modeling efforts from the point of view of energy impact assessment. Characteristics deemed desirable in large-scale energy-impact-assessment models and related studies are discussed. An outline of criteria for describing and comparing such models is presented, from which seven large-scale energy models and one impact-assessment study are described and compared in considerable detail. Tables are also presented which summarize the results of the categorizations.

  4. Neoliberal Policies and their Impact on Public Health Education: Observations on the Venezuelan Experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar Feo

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the impact of neoliberal policies on the training of specialists in Public Health and describes the Venezuelan experience. In Venezuela, like other countries of the American continent, Public Health Schools had been transformed from institutions under the direction of the Ministry of Health to a model in which training took place under market conditions. Education in Public Health became a private good for individual consumption, and schools, lacking official funding, survived by offering courses in a market that did not necessarily respond to a country’s health needs. The conclusion discusses the currrent Venezuelan experience, in which the State has resumed control of the training of specialists in public health, making it more democratic, and adoptng an educational model centered around practice and whose purpose is the mass training of leadership teams to bolster the National Public Health System. In order to comment on the impact of neoliberal policies on training in public health we must first briefly review the following themes: 1. Basic concepts such as neoliberalism, globalization, and health systems. 2. The impact of neoliberal reforms on health. 3. The Venezuelan situation: basic principles for the training of professionals and technicians in health within the framework of a model of independent and sovereign national development. 4. Final reflections: challenges for the coming years.

  5. The impact of social science research on health policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orosz, E

    1994-11-01

    The relationship between research and health policy is discussed from a policy process perspective, describing communication problems in the course of policy formulation, implementation and evaluation. Policy process is often expected by researchers to be rational, having logical sequence of steps and the objective evaluation of alternatives based on scientific knowledge. In fact, policies are often formulated without clear problem identification or based on wrong assumption. The timing of research and policy-making differs. Policy-makers need to respond quickly. Evaluations may be regarded by politicians as embarrassing if they point to a need for significant change. It is not satisfactory to consider only research and policy-making: their relationship is influenced by the media, different interest groups and by the general public. Health policy formulation is embedded in the general policy environment of particular societies. Some countries have a long tradition of consensus-building, while in others health reforms have been formulated and introduced in a centralized way. Traditional bio-medical thinking influences health policy-makers. The importance of social and political acceptability tends to be overlooked. The paper emphasizes that we are experiencing an era of scarcity of resources and growing tension concerning allocation decisions. Existing institutions provide insufficient incentives for policy-makers and researchers to promote public dialogue about such issues. The paper concludes that there is a need for new approaches to policy development and implementation, new structures in policy-making, changes in research financing and co-operation between disciplines and new structures for public participation in policy-making. Research should facilitate more open and democratic dialogue about policy options and the consequences of alternative choices.

  6. Understanding the impact of school tobacco policies on adolescent smoking behaviour: A realist review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schreuders, Michael; Nuyts, Paulien A. W.; van den Putte, Bas; Kunst, Anton E.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Secondary schools increasingly implement school tobacco policies (STPs) to decrease adolescents' smoking. Recent studies suggested that STPs' impact depends on their implementation. We examined adolescents' cognitive and behavioural responses to STPs that impact adolescents' smoking and

  7. Understanding the impact of school tobacco policies on adolescent smoking behaviour: A realist review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schreuders, M.; Nuyts, P.A.W.; van den Putte, B.; Kunst, A.E.

    Background Secondary schools increasingly implement school tobacco policies (STPs) to decrease adolescents' smoking. Recent studies suggested that STPs' impact depends on their implementation. We examined adolescents' cognitive and behavioural responses to STPs that impact adolescents' smoking and

  8. Freshwater Ecosystem Services in Mining Regions: Modelling Options for Policy Development Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Mercado-Garcia

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystem services (ES approach offers an integrated perspective of social-ecological systems, suitable for holistic assessments of mining impacts. Yet for ES models to be policy-relevant, methodological consensus in mining contexts is needed. We review articles assessing ES in mining areas focusing on freshwater components and policy support potential. Twenty-six articles were analysed concerning (i methodological complexity (data types, number of parameters, processes and ecosystem–human integration level and (ii potential applicability for policy development (communication of uncertainties, scenario simulation, stakeholder participation and management recommendations. Articles illustrate mining impacts on ES through valuation exercises mostly. However, the lack of ground- and surface-water measurements, as well as insufficient representation of the connectivity among soil, water and humans, leave room for improvements. Inclusion of mining-specific environmental stressors models, increasing resolution of topographies, determination of baseline ES patterns and inclusion of multi-stakeholder perspectives are advantageous for policy support. We argue that achieving more holistic assessments exhorts practitioners to aim for high social-ecological connectivity using mechanistic models where possible and using inductive methods only where necessary. Due to data constraints, cause–effect networks might be the most feasible and best solution. Thus, a policy-oriented framework is proposed, in which data science is directed to environmental modelling for analysis of mining impacts on water ES.

  9. The Impact of Irish Policy and Legislation on How Adults with Learning Disabilities Make Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Eileen; Griffiths, Colin

    2016-01-01

    This paper reflects the impact of policy and legislation in the context of how adults with learning disabilities make choices. Following an overview of policies which have improved choice for people with learning disability in the United Kingdom, this paper reviews "choice" in current Irish policy and legislation. This paper, while…

  10. ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL POLICIES ON NIGERIA'S ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    exist between some financial policy variables and economic growth in Nigeria. An Overview of Recent ... these financial measures on the growth of the national economy and suggest further policy measures for ... concluded that monetary policy can do little to ease a credit crunch that arises because of increasing loan risk.

  11. Policy documents as sources for measuring societal impact: how often is climate change research mentioned in policy-related documents?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bornmann, Lutz; Haunschild, Robin; Marx, Werner

    In the current UK Research Excellence Framework (REF) and the Excellence in Research for Australia (ERA), societal impact measurements are inherent parts of the national evaluation systems. In this study, we deal with a relatively new form of societal impact measurements. Recently, Altmetric-a start-up providing publication level metrics-started to make data for publications available which have been mentioned in policy documents. We regard this data source as an interesting possibility to specifically measure the (societal) impact of research. Using a comprehensive dataset with publications on climate change as an example, we study the usefulness of the new data source for impact measurement. Only 1.2 % ( n  = 2341) out of 191,276 publications on climate change in the dataset have at least one policy mention. We further reveal that papers published in Nature and Science as well as from the areas "Earth and related environmental sciences" and "Social and economic geography" are especially relevant in the policy context. Given the low coverage of the climate change literature in policy documents, this study can be only a first attempt to study this new source of altmetrics data. Further empirical studies are necessary, because mentions in policy documents are of special interest in the use of altmetrics data for measuring target-oriented the broader impact of research.

  12. Impacts of market-based climate change policy on the U.S. iron and steel industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruth, M.; Amato, A.; Davidsdottir, B.

    2000-01-01

    This article presents an assessment of the impacts that policy-induced increases in cost of energy or carbon may have on energy use and emission profiles of the US iron and steel industry. Time series data and engineering information are combined within a dynamic computer model to endogenously specify changes in technologies, fuel mix, and production processes. Results indicate that energy taxes shift production to electric arc furnaces and reduce total energy use more than policies that raise costs of carbon. However, both energy taxes and costs of carbon will result in a similar decrease in carbon emissions when compared to the absence of those policies

  13. Incorporating operational flexibility into electric generation planning Impacts and methods for system design and policy analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmintier, Bryan S.

    This dissertation demonstrates how flexibility in hourly electricity operations can impact long-term planning and analysis for future power systems, particularly those with substantial variable renewables (e.g., wind) or strict carbon policies. Operational flexibility describes a power system's ability to respond to predictable and unexpected changes in generation or demand. Planning and policy models have traditionally not directly captured the technical operating constraints that determine operational flexibility. However, as demonstrated in this dissertation, this capability becomes increasingly important with the greater flexibility required by significant renewables (>= 20%) and the decreased flexibility inherent in some low-carbon generation technologies. Incorporating flexibility can significantly change optimal generation and energy mixes, lower system costs, improve policy impact estimates, and enable system designs capable of meeting strict regulatory targets. Methodologically, this work presents a new clustered formulation that tractably combines a range of normally distinct power system models, from hourly unit-commitment operations to long-term generation planning. This formulation groups similar generators into clusters to reduce problem size, while still retaining the individual unit constraints required to accurately capture operating reserves and other flexibility drivers. In comparisons against traditional unit commitment formulations, errors were generally less than 1% while run times decreased by several orders of magnitude (e.g., 5000x). Extensive numerical simulations, using a realistic Texas-based power system show that ignoring flexibility can underestimate carbon emissions by 50% or result in significant load and wind shedding to meet environmental regulations. Contributions of this dissertation include: 1. Demonstrating that operational flexibility can have an important impact on power system planning, and describing when and how these

  14. A simultaneous equations model of fiscal policy interactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Allers, Maarten A.; Elhorst, J. Paul

    Existing studies of fiscal policy interactions are based on single equation (SE) models of either taxation or expenditures, without specifying the underlying social welfare function, without taking account of budget constraints and without allowing for cost differences between jurisdictions. Taking

  15. Modeling of the maintenance policy of an offshore wind farm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maddens, L.; Labeau, P.E.

    2004-01-01

    Wind energy has a key position in the market of renewable electricity production means. Offshore wind farms offer additional surfaces to exploit this form of energy, together with more favourable wind conditions. Yet offshore windmills ask for higher investment and maintenance costs. Optimising the latter costs should therefore turn out to be particularly beneficial for this technology. The present paper summarizes the main modelling aspects of the maintenance of a typical offshore wind farm, such as the accessibility of the wind turbines and the impact of weather conditions, the cost of the different transport resources, the number of maintenance teams, a tolerated unavailability of part of the windmills, the opportunity to combine corrective and preventive maintenance actions on one or several windmills. All these features were embedded in a Petri net model of the maintenance policy of the farm, allowing to estimate the maintenance costs entailed by several strategies. Advantages and drawbacks of using Petri nets for the modelling of such a maintenance strategy are finally discussed. (authors)

  16. Why do we need to integrate farmer decision making and wildlife models for policy evaluation?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malawska, Anna Katarzyna; Topping, Christopher John; Nielsen, Helle Ørsted

    2014-01-01

    and technical limitations, traditional agricultural economic and ecological models fall short in terms of predictions of impacts of agri-environmental measures. The feedback situation between policy, human behaviour and ecological systems behaviour can confound these approaches, which do not take systems...

  17. Impacts of licensed premises trading hour policies on alcohol-related harms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Jo-An; Prodan, Ante; Livingston, Michael; Knowles, Dylan; O'Donnell, Eloise; Room, Robin; Indig, Devon; Page, Andrew; McDonnell, Geoff; Wiggers, John

    2018-02-03

    Evaluations of alcohol policy changes demonstrate that restriction of trading hours of both 'on'- and 'off'-licence venues can be an effective means of reducing rates of alcohol-related harm. Despite this, the effects of different trading hour policy options over time, accounting for different contexts and demographic characteristics, and the common co-occurrence of other harm reduction strategies in trading hour policy initiatives, are difficult to estimate. The aim of this study was to use dynamic simulation modelling to compare estimated impacts over time of a range of trading hour policy options on various indicators of acute alcohol-related harm. An agent-based model of alcohol consumption in New South Wales, Australia was developed using existing research evidence, analysis of available data and a structured approach to incorporating expert opinion. Five policy scenarios were simulated, including restrictions to trading hours of on-licence venues and extensions to trading hours of bottle shops. The impact of the scenarios on four measures of alcohol-related harm were considered: total acute harms, alcohol-related violence, emergency department (ED) presentations and hospitalizations. Simulation of a 3 a.m. (rather than 5 a.m.) closing time resulted in an estimated 12.3 ± 2.4% reduction in total acute alcohol-related harms, a 7.9 ± 0.8% reduction in violence, an 11.9 ± 2.1% reduction in ED presentations and a 9.5 ± 1.8% reduction in hospitalizations. Further reductions were achieved simulating a 1 a.m. closing time, including a 17.5 ± 1.1% reduction in alcohol-related violence. Simulated extensions to bottle shop trading hours resulted in increases in rates of all four measures of harm, although most of the effects came from increasing operating hours from 10 p.m. to 11 p.m. An agent-based simulation model suggests that restricting trading hours of licensed venues reduces rates of alcohol-related harm and extending trading hours of bottle

  18. Determinants of health policy impact: comparative results of a European policymaker study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rütten, A.; Lüschen, G.; Lengerke, T. von; Abel, T.; Kannas, L.; Rodríguez Diaz, J.A.; Vinck, J.; Zee, J. van der

    2003-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: This article will use a new theoretical framework for the analysis of health policy impact introduced by Rutten et al. (2003). In particular, it will report on a comparative European study of policymakers' perception and evaluation of specific determinants of the policy impact, both in

  19. Using Contribution Analysis to Evaluate the Impacts of Research on Policy: Getting to "Good Enough"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, Barbara L.; Kernoghan, Alison; Stockton, Lisa; Montague, Steve; Yessis, Jennifer; Willis, Cameron D.

    2018-01-01

    Assessing societal impacts of research is more difficult than assessing advances in knowledge. Methods to evaluate research impact on policy processes and outcomes are especially underdeveloped, and are needed to optimize the influence of research on policy for addressing complex issues such as chronic diseases. Contribution analysis (CA), a…

  20. Energy impact of indoor environmental policy for air-conditioned offices of Hong Kong

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, L.T.; Mui, K.W.; Shi, K.L.

    2008-01-01

    Air-conditioned office buildings are one of the biggest energy consumers of electricity in developed cities in the subtropical climate regions. A good energy policy for the indoor environment should respond to both the needs of energy conservation and the needs for a desirable indoor healthy environment with a reduction in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) generation. This study evaluates energy implications and the corresponding CO 2 generation of some indoor environmental policies for air-conditioned office buildings in the subtropical climate. In particular, the thermal energy consumption in an air-conditioned office building was evaluated by the heat gains through the building fabric, the transport of outdoor fresh air for ventilation, and the heat generated by the occupant and equipment in the space. With the Monte-Carlo sampling technique and the parameters from the existing office building stocks of Hong Kong, the energy consumption profiles of air-conditioned office buildings in Hong Kong were evaluated. Energy consumption profiles were simulated for certain indoor environmental quality (IEQ) policies on indoor air temperature and CO 2 concentration settings in the offices, with other building parameters remaining unchanged. The impact assessment and the regression models described in this study may be useful for evaluation of energy performances of IEQ policies. They will also be useful for the promotion of energy-saving measures in air-conditioned office buildings in Hong Kong. This study presented a useful source of references for policymakers, building professionals and end users to quantify the energy and environmental impacts due to an IEQ policy for air-conditioned office buildings

  1. Scoring Models of Bank Credit Policy Management

    OpenAIRE

    Aida Hanic; Emina Zunic; Adnan Dzelihodzic

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to present how credit scoring models can be used in financial institutions, in this case in banks, in order to simplify credit lending. Unlike traditional models of credit analysis, scoring models provides valuation based on numerical score who represent clients’ possibility to fulfil their obligation. Using credit scoring models, bank can create a numerical snapshot of consumers risk profile. One of the most important characteristic of scoring models is objectivity w...

  2. Growing Stem Cells: The Impact of Federal Funding Policy on the U.S. Scientific Frontier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furman, Jeffrey L.; Murray, Fiona; Stern, Scott

    2012-01-01

    This paper articulates a citation-based approach to science policy evaluation and employs that approach to investigate the impact of the United States' 2001 policy regarding the federal funding of human embryonic stem cell (hESC) research. We evaluate the impact of the policy on the level of U.S. hESC research, the U.S. position at the knowledge…

  3. The impact of fiscal and monetary policies on unemployment problem in Nigeria (managerial economic perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nick Attamah

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the impact of fiscal and Monetary Policies on Unemployment Problem in Nigeria and covers the periods 1980 to 2013. To achieve this, fiscal policy was captured here by government expenditures and revenues respectively while monetary policy was proxied by broad Money Supply (M2, Interest and Exchange rates respectively. The methodology adopted was econometric analysis employing OLS techniques and unit roots of the series were examined using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller after which the co-integration tests was conducted using the Engle Granger approach. Error correction models were estimated to take care of the short run dynamics. It was found that while government expenditure had a positive relationship with unemployment problem in Nigeria, the result of government revenue was negative and insignificant on unemployment problem. For monetary policy, it was found that money supply and exchange rate had positive and significant impact while interest rate has only a positive relationship on unemployment problem in Nigeria. This meets the a priori expectation. The study also revealed that increases in interest and exchange rates escalate unemployment by increasing cost of production which discourages the private sector from employing large workforce. On the other hand, national productivity measured by real GDP had a negative and significant impact on unemployment rate in Nigeria. This paper recommends that for an effective combat to unemployment problem in Nigeria, there should be a systematic diversion of strategies, thus more emphasis should be laid on aggressively pursuing entrepreneurial development and increased productivity. Again government should aggressively focus on investment, employment generation and economic growth that has mechanism to trickle does to the masses

  4. Quantifying and Monetizing Potential Climate Change Policy Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage and Wildfires in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper quantifies and monetizes climate change impacts on carbon stored in terrestrial vegetation and wildfire incidence in the contiguous United States to assess the benefits of alternative mitigation policies. The MC-1 dynamic global vegetation model was used to develop int...

  5. Impact of intellectual property rights and governmental policy on income inequality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ing. Oksana Melikhova

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The hypothesis of inverted U-curve dependence of the income inequality on theabsolute value of the average income is still unresolved issue despite of thegrowing number of theoretical and empirical research on this topic. The paperexamines the impact of governmental policy and thescientific and technologicaldevelopment on income inequality for 145 countriesover a period 1979-2012. Wefound that the income inequality is influenced predominantly by governmentalpolicy on social transfers. Based on the experimental data a model describing theinfluence of social contributions, the expenditureon research and development,intellectual property rights and GDP per capita wasdeveloped.

  6. Strategic environmental assessment policy integration model for solid waste management in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Victor, Dennis; Agamuthu, P.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • We identified policy drivers of SEA in solid waste policy planning. • The SEA primary policy drivers are benefits, barriers and enablers need. • The SEA sub-drivers are environmental attitude and environmental awareness. • Optimal SEA policy integration requires public participation and capacity building. • SEA integration should be a long-term sustainable policy strategy for SWM. -- Abstract: This paper examines the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) systemic policy drivers for solid waste management (SWM) policies, plans and programmes (PPP) in Malaysia. Solid waste generation in Malaysia has been increasing drastically from 9.0 million tonnes in 2000 to an expected 15.6 million tonnes in 2020. This projected rate of solid waste generation is expected to burden the country's environmental and water quality resources. The key problem the study frames is the lack of environmental integration in the SWM process which is only conducted during the environmental impact assessments (EIA) stage of SWM facilities. The purpose of this study is to expand the SEA subject knowledge by validating a behaviour based theoretical framework and identifying key policy drivers that influence the integration of SEA in SWM policy planning. The study methodology utilized a confirmatory covariance based structural equation modelling approach to validate the proposed theoretical model based on the policy makers/implementers interview questionnaire data collection. The study findings indicate five latent SEA policy drivers which were named policy knowledge, environmental attitude, perceived benefits, perceived barriers and perceived enablers. The study has conceptualized and tested a SEA policy model which indicates that SEA integration behaviour is influenced directly by three main drivers (perception of benefits, perception of barriers and perception of enablers) and influenced indirectly by two sub-drivers environmental attitude and environmental knowledge

  7. THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY ON BANK CREDIT DURING ECONOMIC CRISIS: INDONESIA’S EXPERIENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Mongid

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The monetary policy mechanism by which monetary policy was transmitted to thereal economy had emerged as the pivotal discussion topic recently. This paper tried to discussthe impact of Bank Indonesia’s monetary policy on loan bank. By using simple loan bankframework we concluded that monetary policies were able to influence loan bank. Themonetary variables such as discount rate policy, base money and exchange rate policy werevery important in determining the banking credit. As the credit was very important to influencesthe economic activitiy, the result provided evidence that monetary policy was important as atool to control economic activity via credit channel. The validity of this study challenged thehypotheses that monetary policy was death. However, monetary policy maker should carefullyconsider the soundness of the banking industry because it was a strategic partner for monetaryauthority to control the economic activities.

  8. The French nuclear policy. A model for security policy in North-East Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choe, K.

    1998-01-01

    Between the end of the second world war and the collapse of the Berlin wall, the French diplomacy was based on the nuclear policy in a solid and coherent way. This nuclear policy was an 'incarnation' of the national security conception, allowing France to recover its political, military and economical rank on the international scene. The most important characteristic of the French nuclear policy concerns the commercialization of the nuclear energy which aims to ensuring the national security through the building up of a financial, technological and political 'reserve'. In front of the domination of the USA and USSR during the cold war era, NE Asia had a similar geostrategic configuration as Western Europe. It concerns in particular the massive application of nuclear energy for both military and industrial purposes. The bases of the security policy in this region refers to the real use of the nuclear weapon by the USA against Japan in 1945. The French nuclear policy may be considered as a model for the building of the security policy of NE Asia, in particular through the commercialization of the nuclear technology between the countries in concern. This nuclear approach would allow the countries of these region to change their present day national defense policy into an economical and military cooperation. (J.S.)

  9. Impacts of Bioenergy Policies on Land-Use Change in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanley U. Okoro

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, bioenergy policies have increased the competition for land as well as the risk of adverse environmental impacts resulting from deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs. Primary land-use objectives confronting society today include meeting the growing demand for agricultural products, especially energy crops, preserving essential ecosystem services for human well-being and long-run agrarian production, and contributing to the climate policy target. Here, future agricultural, societal and environmental consequences of bioenergy policies under different global climate and societal development scenarios were assessed using a novel Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model for Nigeria (NGA–FASOM. The results reveal that, in Nigeria, meeting emission reduction requires an implementation of a minimum carbon price of $80/ton within the forest and agricultural sectors. A carbon price alone is not sufficient to preserve the remaining forests and pasture land in Nigeria when bioenergy is subsidized. Furthermore, the result shows that subsidy on bioenergy does not have any significant effect on the total social welfare. The findings in this study provide a guide for policymakers in designing appropriate policies addressing bioenergy industry issues in Nigeria.

  10. The economic impact of emission peaking control policies and China's sustainable development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Wang

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available To achieve the goals of national sustainable development, the peaking control of CO2 emissions is pivotal, as well as other pollutants. In this paper, we build a Chinese inter-regional CGE model and simulate 13 policies and their combinations. By analyzing the energy consumptions, coal consumptions, relating emissions and their impacts on GDP, we found that with the structure adjustment policy, the proportion of coal in primary fossil fuels in 2030 will decrease from 53% to 48% and CO2 emissions will decrease by 11.3%–22.8% compared to the baseline scenario. With the energy intensity reduction policy, CO2 emissions will decrease by 33.3% in 2030 and 47.8% in 2050 than baseline scenario. Other pollutants will also be controlled as synergetic effects. In this study we also find that although the earlier the peaking time the better for emission amounts control, the economic costs can not be ignored. The GDP will decrease by 2.96%–8.23% under different scenarios. Therefore, integrated policy solutions are needed for realizing the peaks package and more targeted measures are required to achieve the peaks of other pollutants earlier.

  11. China's Population Policy at the Crossroads: Social Impacts and Prospects

    OpenAIRE

    Jiang, Quanbao; Li, Shuzhuo; Feldman, Marcus W.

    2013-01-01

    China's total fertility rate fell below replacement level in the 1990s. From the 1970s the fertility rate declined dramatically, mainly as a consequence of the national population policy whose aim has been to limit birth numbers, control population growth and boost economic growth. Having achieved such a low fertility rate, how will China's population policy evolve in the future? This paper first reviews the history of China's population policy since 1970 in terms of three stages: 1970-1979; ...

  12. A simulation model for reliability-based appraisal of an energy policy: The case of Lebanon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamdan, H.A.; Ghajar, R.F.; Chedid, R.B.

    2012-01-01

    The Lebanese Electric Power System (LEPS) has been suffering from technical and financial deficiencies for decades and mirrors the problems encountered in many developing countries suffering from inadequate or no power systems planning resulting in incomplete and ill-operating infrastructure, and suffering from effects of political instability, huge debts, unavailability of financing desired projects and inefficiency in operation. The upgrade and development of the system necessitate the adoption of a comprehensive energy policy that introduces solutions to a diversity of problems addressing the technical, financial, administrative and governance aspects of the system. In this paper, an energy policy for Lebanon is proposed and evaluated based on integration between energy modeling and financial modeling. The paper utilizes the Load Modification Technique (LMT) as a probabilistic tool to assess the impact of policy implementation on energy production, overall cost, technical/commercial losses and reliability. Scenarios reflecting implementation of policy projects are assessed and their impacts are compared with business-as-usual scenarios which assume no new investment is to take place in the sector. Conclusions are drawn on the usefulness of the proposed evaluation methodology and the effectiveness of the adopted energy policy for Lebanon and other developing countries suffering from similar power system problems. - Highlights: ► Evaluation methodology based on a probabilistic simulation tool is proposed. ► A business-as-usual scenario for a given study period of the LEPS was modeled. ► Mitigation scenarios reflecting implementation of the energy policy are modeled. ► Policy simulated and compared with business-as-usual scenarios of the LEPS. ► Results reflect usefulness of proposed methodology and the adopted energy policy.

  13. Trade policy-making in a model of legislative bargaining

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Celik, Levent; Karabay, Bilgehan; McLaren, J.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 91, č. 2 (2013), s. 179-190 ISSN 0022-1996 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP402/12/0666 Grant - others:UK(CZ) UNCE 204005/2012 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : trade policy * multilateral legislative bargaining * political economy Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.443, year: 2013

  14. Assessing The Policy Relevance of Regional Air Quality Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, T.

    This work presents a framework for discussing the policy relevance of models, and regional air quality models in particular. We define four criteria: 1) The scientific status of the model; 2) Its ability to address primary environmental concerns; 3) The position of modeled environmental issues on the political agenda; and 4) The role of scientific input into the policy process. This framework is applied to current work simulating the transport of nitric acid in Asia with the ATMOS-N model, to past studies on air pollution transport in Europe with the EMEP model, and to future applications of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) Models-3. The Lagrangian EMEP model provided critical input to the development of the 1994 Oslo and 1999 Gothenburg Protocols to the Convention on Long-Range Transbound- ary Air Pollution, as well as to the development of EU directives, via its role as a component of the RAINS integrated assessment model. Our work simulating reactive nitrogen in Asia follows the European example in part, with the choice of ATMOS-N, a regional Lagrangian model to calculate source-receptor relationships for the RAINS- Asia integrated assessment model. However, given differences between ATMOS-N and the EMEP model, as well as differences between the scientific and political cli- mates facing Europe ten years ago and Asia today, the role of these two models in the policy process is very different. We characterize the different aspects of policy relevance between these models using our framework, and consider how the current generation US EPA air quality model compares, in light of its Eulerian structure, dif- ferent objectives, and the policy context of the US.

  15. The fit between health impact assessment and public policy: practice meets theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Patrick; Sainsbury, Peter; Kemp, Lynn

    2014-05-01

    The last decade has seen increased use of health impact assessment (HIA) to influence public policies developed outside the Health sector. HIA has developed as a structured, linear and technical process to incorporate health, broadly defined, into policy. This is potentially incongruent with complex, non-linear and tactical policy making which does not necessarily consider health. HIA research has however not incorporated existing public policy theory to explain practitioners' experiences with HIA and policy. This research, therefore, used public policy theory to explain HIA practitioners' experiences and investigate 'What is the fit between HIA and public policy?' Empirical findings from nine in-depth interviews with international HIA practitioners were re-analysed against public policy theory. We reviewed the HIA literature for inclusion of public policy theories then compared these for compatibility with our critical realist methodology and the empirical data. The theory 'Policy Cycles and Subsystems' (Howlett et al., 2009) was used to re-analyse the empirical data. HIAs for policy are necessarily both tactical and technical. Within policy subsystems using HIA to influence public policy requires tactically positioning health as a relevant public policy issue and, to facilitate this, institutional support for collaboration between Public Health and other sectors. HIA fits best within the often non-linear public policy cycle as a policy formulation instrument. HIA provides, tactically and technically, a space for practical reasoning to navigate facts, values and processes underlying the substantive and procedural dimensions of policy. Re-analysing empirical experiential data using existing public policy theory provided valuable explanations for future research, policy and practice concerning why and how HIA fits tactically and technically with the world of public policy development. The use of theory and empiricism opens up important possibilities for future

  16. Impact of price deregulation policy on the affordability of essential medicines for women's health: a panel data analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Junjie; Wang, Liming; Liu, Chenxi; Zhang, Xinping

    2017-12-01

    A new policy which required deregulation on prices of off-patent medicines for women's health during procurement was introduced in China in September 2015. The current study examines this policy's impact on the affordability of essential medicines for women's health. Based on product-level panel data, a fixed effect regression model is employed by using procurement records from Hubei Centralist Tender for Drug Purchase platform. In the model, Affordability was measured with prices. The Competition consists of two parts: generic competition and therapeutic class competition which are measured with generic competitors and therapeutic substitutes. Instrument variable is used to deal with endogeneity. The policy helped control prices of essential medicines for women's health. Generic competition helped control prices, however, therapeutic class competition caused higher prices. The new policy helped enhance the affordability of essential medicines for women's health as expected, which provides empirical evidence on price deregulation. Besides, generic competition is important in price control despite strict regulatory system in China.

  17. Applications of system dynamics modelling to support health policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Jo-An M; Wells, Robert; Page, Andrew; Dominello, Amanda; Haines, Mary; Wilson, Andrew

    2015-07-09

    The value of systems science modelling methods in the health sector is increasingly being recognised. Of particular promise is the potential of these methods to improve operational aspects of healthcare capacity and delivery, analyse policy options for health system reform and guide investments to address complex public health problems. Because it lends itself to a participatory approach, system dynamics modelling has been a particularly appealing method that aims to align stakeholder understanding of the underlying causes of a problem and achieve consensus for action. The aim of this review is to determine the effectiveness of system dynamics modelling for health policy, and explore the range and nature of its application. A systematic search was conducted to identify articles published up to April 2015 from the PubMed, Web of Knowledge, Embase, ScienceDirect and Google Scholar databases. The grey literature was also searched. Papers eligible for inclusion were those that described applications of system dynamics modelling to support health policy at any level of government. Six papers were identified, comprising eight case studies of the application of system dynamics modelling to support health policy. No analytic studies were found that examined the effectiveness of this type of modelling. Only three examples engaged multidisciplinary stakeholders in collective model building. Stakeholder participation in model building reportedly facilitated development of a common 'mental map' of the health problem, resulting in consensus about optimal policy strategy and garnering support for collaborative action. The paucity of relevant papers indicates that, although the volume of descriptive literature advocating the value of system dynamics modelling is considerable, its practical application to inform health policy making is yet to be routinely applied and rigorously evaluated. Advances in software are allowing the participatory model building approach to be extended to

  18. New vehicle fuel economy in the UK: Impact of the recession and recent policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wadud, Zia

    2014-01-01

    Interests in vehicle fuel economy have increased in the past few years with the implementations of more stringent CAFE standard in USA and mandatory carbon emission standard in the EU. We seek to understand the effects of recent policies such as restructuring of Vehicle Excise Duties and EU standard on new vehicle fuel economy in the UK. In the past few years there have been substantial fluctuations in income and fuel prices, offering an interesting testing ground to understand their impact on the demand for fuel economy in vehicles. We use a monthly dataset to find that the emission standard is the largest driver for fuel economy improvements in recent years. Also, contrary to some recent findings in Europe and in UK, we find that income has an effect and that the recession had some role in improving the fuel economy. The effects of fuel prices were relatively small. Restructuring of the VED also improved new vehicle fuel economy in the UK, but the scrappage scheme had no significant effect. Results indicate that both supply and demand side policies are effective in improving fuel economy, although quantitatively the emission standard appears more effective due to its stringency. It is also important to consider the effects of income while devising demand side policies. - Highlights: • Econometric modelling and simulation of new vehicle fuel economy in UK. • EU carbon standard is the largest reason behind improving fuel economy. • Recession and associated reduction in income also had a role. • Fuel price has some impact on new car fuel economy, but small. • VED restructuring had an impact, but scrappage scheme's impact was insignificant

  19. Agricultural pricing policy in Kenya : scope and impact

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meilink, H.A.

    1985-01-01

    Reviews the findings of available studies and reports thought to be of relevance to policy makers. A discussion of the institutional framework, of criteria used in price-setting procedures, and of scope and objectives of the agricultural pricing policies is folowed by an examination of what these

  20. The Business Impact of LGBT-Supportive Workplace Policies

    OpenAIRE

    Badgett, M.V. Lee; Durso, Laura E.; Mallory, Christy; Kastanis, Angeliki

    2013-01-01

    LGBT-supportive policies are linked to positive business-related outcomes. LGBT-supportive policies are also linked to greater job commitment, improved workplace relationships, increased job satisfaction, and improved health outcomes among LGBT employees. LGBT employees are also less likely to face discrimination in such environments and are more comfortable being open about their sexual orientation.

  1. Research and Policy in Education: Evidence, Ideology and Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitty, Geoff

    2016-01-01

    The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) tells us that 90 per cent of education reforms are not properly evaluated. So it seems that governments have not lived up to their own ideals of evidence-informed policymaking. "Research and Policy in Education" argues that education policy is as often driven by political…

  2. Education Policies: Potential Impacts and Implications in Australia and Beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Tiffany

    2016-01-01

    Australian education is delivered through government and independent systems. This article discusses how education policies on gay, lesbian, bisexual, transgender, intersex, and queer students in these different sectors have affected school climates. It describes how previously published policy analysis and survey data on Australian gay, lesbian,…

  3. The Impact of Zero Tolerance Policy on Children with Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alnaim, Mariam

    2018-01-01

    The Zero Tolerance policy was intended to eliminate learners who are a danger to a learning institution (Henson, 2012). The development of this policy was to assist schools with better policing approaches of students conducts by employing tough disciplinary action and subsequently provide a safer learning environment. While the Zero Tolerance…

  4. Analysis of National and EU Policies Supporting CSR and Impact

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moon, Jeremy; Slager, Rieneke; Anastasiadis, Stephanos

    The purpose of this report is to provide an overview of the place of governmental policies in encouraging and supporting Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and their effectiveness therein. By: Moon, Jeremy - Slager, Rieneke - Brunn, Christoph - Hardi, Peter - Steen Knudsen, Jette - 2012 The very...... but it is also increasingly explicit in government policies (Matten and Moon 2008). In other words, it is not simply that government policies structure the environment in which companies choose to behave responsibly or otherwise, but also that policies are precisely designed to encourage such behaviour...... society organizations); to mandate (e.g. for accounting or reporting standards). However, the trajectories between and combinations of these policy types also vary among countries (see below). Collectively they tend to reflect broader trends in new governance which stress participation, networks...

  5. Federalism and decentralization: impact on international and Brazilian health policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leite, Valéria Rodrigues; de Vasconcelos, Cipriano Maia; Lima, Kenio Costa

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses the implications of decentralization in the light of international and Brazilian federalism, and its effects on public health policy. In a comparative analysis among countries, the authors find there is no single model; rather, each country has a unique structure of institutions and norms that have important implications for the operation of its health system. Brazil shares some similarities with other countries that have adopted a decentralized system and is assuming features ever closer to U.S. federalism, with a complex web of relationships. The degree of inequality among Brazilian municipalities and states, along with the budgetary imbalances caused by the minimal levels of resource utilization, undermines Brazil's constitutional principles and, consequently, its federalism. To ensure the constitutional mandate in Brazil, it is essential, as in other countries, to create a stable source of funds and increase the volume and efficiency of spending. Also important are investing in the training of managers, improving information systems, strengthening the principles of autonomy and interdependence, and defining patterns of cooperation within the federation.

  6. Evaluating business models for microgrids: Interactions of technology and policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanna, Ryan; Ghonima, Mohamed; Kleissl, Jan; Tynan, George; Victor, David G.

    2017-01-01

    Policy makers are increasingly focused on strategies to decentralize the electricity grid. We analyze the business model for one mode of decentralization—microgrids—and quantify the economics for self-supply of electricity and thermal energy and explicitly resolve technological as well as policy variables. We offer a tool, based on the Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model (DER-CAM) modeling framework, that determines the cost-minimal capacity and operation of distributed energy resources in a microgrid, and apply it in southern California to three “iconic” microgrid types which represent typical commercial adopters: a large commercial building, critical infrastructure, and campus. We find that optimal investment leads to some deployment of renewables but that natural gas technologies underpin the most robust business cases—due in part to relatively cheap gas and high electricity rates. This finding contrasts sharply with most policy advocacy, which has focused on the potentials for decentralization of the grid to encourage deployment of renewables. Decentralization could radically reduce customer energy costs, but without the right policy framework it could create large numbers of small decentralized sources of gas-based carbon emissions that will be difficult to control if policy makers want to achieve deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. - Highlights: • We offer a modeling tool to study technology and policy variables for microgrids. • We construct comprehensive load profiles for three likely adopters of microgrids. • Investment in natural gas generators is key to enabling business models. • Solar PV and storage are optimal but as supplements to gas generation. • Business models are highly robust to sensitivity in technology and policy variables.

  7. A narrative review of research impact assessment models and methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milat, Andrew J; Bauman, Adrian E; Redman, Sally

    2015-03-18

    Research funding agencies continue to grapple with assessing research impact. Theoretical frameworks are useful tools for describing and understanding research impact. The purpose of this narrative literature review was to synthesize evidence that describes processes and conceptual models for assessing policy and practice impacts of public health research. The review involved keyword searches of electronic databases, including MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, EBM Reviews, and Google Scholar in July/August 2013. Review search terms included 'research impact', 'policy and practice', 'intervention research', 'translational research', 'health promotion', and 'public health'. The review included theoretical and opinion pieces, case studies, descriptive studies, frameworks and systematic reviews describing processes, and conceptual models for assessing research impact. The review was conducted in two phases: initially, abstracts were retrieved and assessed against the review criteria followed by the retrieval and assessment of full papers against review criteria. Thirty one primary studies and one systematic review met the review criteria, with 88% of studies published since 2006. Studies comprised assessments of the impacts of a wide range of health-related research, including basic and biomedical research, clinical trials, health service research, as well as public health research. Six studies had an explicit focus on assessing impacts of health promotion or public health research and one had a specific focus on intervention research impact assessment. A total of 16 different impact assessment models were identified, with the 'payback model' the most frequently used conceptual framework. Typically, impacts were assessed across multiple dimensions using mixed methodologies, including publication and citation analysis, interviews with principal investigators, peer assessment, case studies, and document analysis. The vast majority of studies relied on principal investigator

  8. Integrated impact assessment of climate change, land use, and adaptation policies on water quality in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trautvetter, Helen; Schoenhart, Martin; Parajaka, Juraj; Schmid, Erwin; Zessner, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    Climate change is one of the major challenges of our time and adds considerable stress to the human society and environment. A change in climate will not only shift general weather patterns, but might also increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. These changes in climatic conditions will affect the quality and quantity of water resources both directly as well as indirectly through autonomous adaptation by farmers (e.g. cultivar choices, fertilization intensity or soil management). This will influence the compliance with the good ecological and chemical status according to the EU Water Framework Directive. We present results from an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to tackle those direct and indirect impacts and analyze policy options for planned adaptation in agricultural land use and sustainable management of land and water resources until 2040. The IIMF is the result of an interdisciplinary collaboration among economists, agronomists, and hydrologists. It consists of the bio-physical process model EPIC, the regional land use optimization model PASMA[grid], the quantitative precipitation/runoff TUWmodel and the surface water emission model MONERIS. Scenarios have been developed and parameterized in collaboration with stakeholders in order to facilitate multi-actor knowledge transfer. The set of climate change scenarios until 2040 includes three scenarios with equal temperature changes but varying precipitation patterns. They are combined with potential socio-economic and policy development. The latter include water protection measures on fertilization management, soil management, or crop rotation choices. We will presented the development of interfaces among the research, the definition of scenarios and major scenario results for Austria. We will focus on nutrient emissions to surface waters, which are the major link between the different models. The results, available at watershed level indicate the

  9. Cumulative Impacts of Energy and Climate Change Policies on Carbon Leakage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varma, A.; Milnes, R.; Miller, K.; Williams, E. [AEA Technology plc, London (United Kingdom); De Bruyn, S.; Brinke, L. [CE Delft, Delft (Netherlands)

    2012-02-15

    Carbon leakage occurs when climate change policy aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions in one country leads to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions in a country that is not bound by these policies. Given that climate change is a global issue, carbon leakage impacts upon the effectiveness of climate change policies. This independent study examines the cumulative impact of climate change policies on carbon leakage. The report brings together findings and analysis from a wide range of primary literature in this area and where possible, conclusions relevant to the UK are drawn.

  10. THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY ON THE VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED (VMT) IN THE U.S.

    OpenAIRE

    Ender Demir; Giray Gozgor

    2016-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the United States (U.S.) over the period of January 1978 to October 2014. We estimate an empirical model based on a travel demand-analysis. It is found that an increase in economic policy uncertainty leads to a decrease in vehicle miles traveled. This negative relationship is also observed when different model types, various control variables, and the subindexes of the EPU are consid...

  11. THEORIES AND MODELS OF FISCAL POLICY

    OpenAIRE

    Alina Georgiana SOLOMON

    2013-01-01

    Within the paper “Theories and models of fiscal policy” we made a presentation of the main fiscal theories elaborated by the renowned representatives of the Physiocratic School, of the classic English School and last, but not least, the neoclassic approach of the aforementioned in the vision of Frank Ramsey and Arthur Laffer. The purpose of the paper is to highlight which was the contribution of the fiscal theories and models formulated by scholars and to what extent they contributed to devel...

  12. Policy insights from the nutritional food market transformation model: the case of obesity prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Struben, Jeroen; Chan, Derek; Dubé, Laurette

    2014-12-01

    This paper presents a system dynamics policy model of nutritional food market transformation, tracing over-time interactions between the nutritional quality of supply, consumer food choice, population health, and governmental policy. Applied to the Canadian context and with body mass index as the primary outcome, we examine policy portfolios for obesity prevention, including (1) industry self-regulation efforts, (2) health- and nutrition-sensitive governmental policy, and (3) efforts to foster health- and nutrition-sensitive innovation. This work provides novel theoretical and practical insights on drivers of nutritional market transformations, highlighting the importance of integrative policy portfolios to simultaneously shift food demand and supply for successful and self-sustaining nutrition and health sensitivity. We discuss model extensions for deeper and more comprehensive linkages of nutritional food market transformation with supply, demand, and policy in agrifood and health/health care. These aim toward system design and policy that can proactively, and with greater impact, scale, and resilience, address single as well as double malnutrition in varying country settings. © 2014 New York Academy of Sciences.

  13. Mathematical modelling informs HIV prevention policy in China ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-04-27

    Apr 27, 2016 ... IDRC-funded research is using mathematical modelling to influence local and national policies in China to reduce HIV transmission. Treatment as prevention Earlier research conducted under Modelling and controlling infectious diseases project showed that providing antiretroviral therapy (ART) to ...

  14. Eloquence is The Key – the Impact of Monetary Policy Speeches on Exchange Rate Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian Cantemir Călin

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available During the last years the monetary policy initiatives of the main central banks have been profoundly influenced by quantitative easing (QE. Blessing, curse, effective instruments or a simple fad, these unconventional measures have occupied the center stage of academic and public attention. In this context, this paper focuses on a wide set of public speeches delivered by officials belonging to the most relevant central banks. These statements cover a large pallet of topics including areas such as QE, tapering, financial stability, unemployment or interest rates. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact that these speeches have on the volatility of exchange rates. For this purpose, the methodology relies on an econometric event study that incorporates three volatility models and intraday five-minute frequencies. The results indicate the fact that public statements have a clear, evident, significant and robust impact on the observed assets.

  15. Testing the impact of local alcohol licencing policies on reported crime rates in England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vocht, F; Heron, J; Campbell, R; Egan, M; Mooney, J D; Angus, C; Brennan, A; Hickman, M

    2017-02-01

    Excessive alcohol use contributes to public nuisance, antisocial behaviour, and domestic, interpersonal and sexual violence. We test whether licencing policies aimed at restricting its spatial and/or temporal availability, including cumulative impact zones, are associated with reductions in alcohol-related crime. Reported crimes at English lower tier local authority (LTLA) level were used to calculate the rates of reported crimes including alcohol-attributable rates of sexual offences and violence against a person, and public order offences. Financial fraud was included as a control crime not directly associated with alcohol abuse. Each area was classified as to its cumulative licensing policy intensity for 2009-2015 and categorised as 'passive', low, medium or high. Crime rates adjusted for area deprivation, outlet density, alcohol-related hospital admissions and population size at baseline were analysed using hierarchical (log-rate) growth modelling. 284 of 326 LTLAs could be linked and had complete data. From 2009 to 2013 alcohol-related violent and sexual crimes and public order offences rates declined faster in areas with more 'intense' policies (about 1.2, 0.10 and 1.7 per 1000 people compared with 0.6, 0.01 and 1.0 per 1000 people in 'passive' areas, respectively). Post-2013, the recorded rates increased again. No trends were observed for financial fraud. Local areas in England with more intense alcohol licensing policies had a stronger decline in rates of violent crimes, sexual crimes and public order offences in the period up to 2013 of the order of 4-6% greater compared with areas where these policies were not in place, but not thereafter. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  16. The impact of price and tobacco control policies on the demand for electronic nicotine delivery systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jidong; Tauras, John; Chaloupka, Frank J

    2014-07-01

    While much is known about the demand for conventional cigarettes, little is known about the determinants of demand for electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS or e-cigarettes). The goal of this study is to estimate the own and cross-price elasticity of demand for e-cigarettes and to examine the impact of cigarette prices and smoke-free policies on e-cigarette sales. Quarterly e-cigarette prices and sales and conventional cigarette prices from 2009 to 2012 were constructed from commercial retail store scanner data from 52 U.S. markets, for food, drug and mass stores, and from 25 markets, for convenience stores. Fixed-effects models were used to estimate the own and cross-price elasticity of demand for e-cigarettes and associations between e-cigarette sales and cigarette prices and smoke-free policies. Estimated own price elasticities for disposable e-cigarettes centred around -1.2, while those for reusable e-cigarettes were approximately -1.9. Disposable e-cigarette sales were higher in markets where reusable e-cigarette prices were higher and where less of the population was covered by a comprehensive smoke-free policy. There were no consistent and statistically significant relationships between cigarette prices and e-cigarette sales. E-cigarette sales are very responsive to own price changes. Disposable e-cigarettes appear to be substitutes for reusable e-cigarettes. Policies increasing e-cigarette retail prices, such as limiting rebates, discounts and coupons and imposing a tax on e-cigarettes, could potentially lead to significant reductions in e-cigarette sales. Differential tax policies based on product type could lead to substitution between different types of e-cigarettes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  17. Impact of two policy interventions on dietary diversity in Ecuador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponce, Juan; Ramos-Martin, Jesus

    2017-06-01

    To differentiate the effects of food vouchers and training in health and nutrition on consumption and dietary diversity in Ecuador by using an experimental design. Interventions involved enrolling three groups of approximately 200 randomly selected households per group in three provinces in Ecuador. Power estimates and sample size were computed using the Optimal Design software, with a power of 80 %, at 5 % of significance and with a minimum detectable effect of 0·25 (sd). The first group was assigned to receive a monthly food voucher of $US 40. The second group was assigned to receive the same $US 40 voucher, plus training on health and nutrition issues. The third group served as the control. Weekly household values of food consumption were converted into energy intake per person per day. A simple proxy indicator was constructed for dietary diversity, based on the Food Consumption Score. Finally, an econometric model with three specifications was used for analysing the differential effect of the interventions. Three provinces in Ecuador, two from the Sierra region (Carchi and Chimborazo) and one from the Coastal region (Santa Elena). Members of 773 households randomly selected (n 4343). No significant impact on consumption for any of the interventions was found. However, there was evidence that voucher systems had a positive impact on dietary diversity. No differentiated effects were found for the training intervention. The most cost-effective intervention to improve dietary diversity in Ecuador is the use of vouchers to support family choice in food options.

  18. The Impact of Fiscal Policies on the Socioeconomic Determinants of Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosquera, Isabel; González-Rábago, Yolanda; Bacigalupe, Amaia; Suhrcke, Marc

    2017-04-01

    There has been considerable recent debate around the alleged impact of discretionary fiscal policies - especially austerity policies - on health and health inequalities. Assuming that most of the impact will have to run via the effect of fiscal policies on socioeconomic determinants of health (SDH), it is of interest to gain a further understanding of the relationship between fiscal policies and SDH. Therefore, the aim of this article is to review the recent evidence on the impact of discretionary fiscal policies on key SDH, i.e. income, poverty, education, and employment, in high income OECD countries. We find that there are no simple answers as to how fiscal policy affects those determinants of health. The effects of contractionary and expansionary fiscal policies on the analyzed SDH vary considerably across countries and will largely depend on the pre-crisis situation. Contractionary fiscal policies seem to have increased poverty, while their impact on income inequality will be influenced by the composition of the implemented measures. More empirical research trying to directly link fiscal policies to health outcomes, while taking into account of some of the mechanisms encountered here, would be worthwhile.

  19. Data driven mathematical models for policy making

    OpenAIRE

    Nannyonga, Betty

    2011-01-01

    This thesis consists of two papers. 1. Betty Nannyonga, D.J.T. Sumpter, J.Y.T. Mugisha and L.S. Luboobi: The Dynamics,causes and possible prevention of Hepaititis E outbreaks. 2. Betty Nannyonga, D.J.T. Sumpter, andStam Nicolis: A dynamical systems approach tosocial and economic development. The first paper deals with a deterministic approach of modelling a Hepatitis E outbreak whenmalaria is endemic in a population. We design three models based on the epidemiology ofHepatitis E, malaria, and...

  20. Wellbeing impacts of city policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hiscock, Rosemary; Mudu, Pierpaolo; Braubach, Matthias

    2014-01-01

    To mitigate climate change, city authorities are developing policies in areas such as transportation, housing and energy use, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to their effects on greenhouse gas emissions, these policies are likely to have consequences for the wellbeing of their pop......To mitigate climate change, city authorities are developing policies in areas such as transportation, housing and energy use, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to their effects on greenhouse gas emissions, these policies are likely to have consequences for the wellbeing...... of their populations for example through changes in opportunities to take physical exercise. In order to explore the potential consequences for wellbeing, we first explore what ?wellbeing? is and how it can be operationalised for urban planners. In this paper, we illustrate how wellbeing can be divided into objective...

  1. Impacts of public policy on rail development in Missouri.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-09-01

    Identifying the State policies that most directly affect or advance railroad development begins with an : understanding of how railroads make investment decisions. Railroads are a capital-intensive business, : owning all physical assets, locomotives,...

  2. Assessing the Impact of Financial Policies on Nigeria's Economic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... of the financial sector by the relevant authorities to avoid lopsided compliance with financial and monetary guidelines. Keywords: Financial policies, Financial Liberalization, Financial developments, Economic growth, Guided regulations. International Journal of Development and Management Review (INJODEMAR) Vol.

  3. Impact of Policy on Fuels RD&D (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gearhart, C.

    2013-12-01

    This presentation provides an overview of fuel economy and emissions policy and its relationship with fuel research, development, and deployment (RD&D). Solutions explored include biofuels and increased engine efficiency.

  4. A five-Stage Socio-Economic Change Model of the Impact of Resettlement Policy on Human Welfare in Semi-Arid Lands of Kenya: A Case Study of Muuni Community in Makueni District

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gitunu, A.M.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper discusses relocation stress experienced by an agro-pastoral community of Makueni district during eviction from their former settlement areas thus causing the untold socio-cultural and economic suffering during eviction, transitional, shifting and resettlement stages. The relocation involved three communities formerly settled in Chyulu hills in Makueni district, Kalembwani in Kajiado district and Kibwezi township in Makueni district whose occupation was agro-pastoral production. The relocation was involuntary and unplanned and had adversely disrupted their food-security, socio-cultural and economic welfare. The study of the Muuni community spanned a period of over three years (1996 - 1999). The '5-stage socio-economic change model' studied in this study shows the ensuring adjustment process most likely to be experienced when top-down policy decisions are taken and how this affects farming communities within semi-arid lands of Kenya where involuntary and unplanned resettlement of people takes place

  5. Policy impacts estimates are sensitive to data selection in empirical analysis: evidence from the United States – Canada softwood lumber trade dispute

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daowei Zhang; Rajan Parajuli

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we use the U.S. softwood lumber import demand model as a case study to show that the effects of past trade policies are sensitive to the data sample used in empirical analyses.  We conclude that, to be consistent with the purpose of analysis of policy and to ensure all else being equal, policy impacts can only be judged by using data up to the time when...

  6. Wellbeing impacts of city policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Hiscock, Rosemary; Mudu, Pierpaolo; Braubach, Matthias; Martuzzi, Marco; Perez, Laura; Sabel, Clive

    2014-01-01

    To mitigate climate change, city authorities are developing policies in areas such as transportation, housing and energy use, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to their effects on greenhouse gas emissions, these policies are likely to have consequences for the wellbeing of their populations for example through changes in opportunities to take physical exercise. In order to explore the potential consequences for wellbeing, we first explore what ‘wellbeing’ is and how it can be op...

  7. Determining the privacy policy deficiencies of health ICT applications through semi-formal modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croll, Peter R

    2011-02-01

    To ensure that patient confidentiality is securely maintained, health ICT applications that contain sensitive personal information demand comprehensive privacy policies. Determining the adequacy of these policies to meet legal conformity together with clinical users and patient expectation is demanding in practice. Organisations and agencies looking to analyse their Privacy and Security policies can benefit from guidance provided by outside entities such as the Privacy Office of their State or Government together with law firms and ICT specialists. The advice given is not uniform and often open to different interpretations. Of greater concern is the possibility of overlooking any important aspects that later result in a data breach. Based on three case studies, this paper considers whether a more formal approach to privacy analysis could be taken that would help identify the full coverage of a Privacy Impact Analysis and determine the deficiencies with an organisation's current policies and approach. A diagrammatic model showing the relationships between Confidentiality, Privacy, Trust, Security and Safety is introduced. First the validity of this model is determined by mapping it against the real-world case studies taken from three healthcare services that depend on ICT. Then, by using software engineering methods, a formal mapping of the relationships is undertaken to identify a full set of policies needed to satisfy the model. How effective this approach may prove as a generic method for deriving a comprehensive set of policies in health ICT applications is finally discussed. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence: results from the Michigan SimSmoke tobacco policy simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, David T; Huang, An-Tsun; Havumaki, Joshua S; Meza, Rafael

    2016-05-01

    Michigan has implemented several of the tobacco control policies recommended by the World Health Organization MPOWER goals. We consider the effect of those policies and additional policies consistent with MPOWER goals on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs). The SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model is used to examine the effect of past policies and a set of additional policies to meet the MPOWER goals. The model is adapted to Michigan using state population, smoking, and policy data starting in 1993. SADs are estimated using standard attribution methods. Upon validating the model, SimSmoke is used to distinguish the effect of policies implemented since 1993 against a counterfactual with policies kept at their 1993 levels. The model is then used to project the effect of implementing stronger policies beginning in 2014. SimSmoke predicts smoking prevalence accurately between 1993 and 2010. Since 1993, a relative reduction in smoking rates of 22 % by 2013 and of 30 % by 2054 can be attributed to tobacco control policies. Of the 22 % reduction, 44 % is due to taxes, 28 % to smoke-free air laws, 26 % to cessation treatment policies, and 2 % to youth access. Moreover, 234,000 SADs are projected to be averted by 2054. With additional policies consistent with MPOWER goals, the model projects that, by 2054, smoking prevalence can be further reduced by 17 % with 80,000 deaths averted relative to the absence of those policies. Michigan SimSmoke shows that tobacco control policies, including cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, and cessation treatment policies, have substantially reduced smoking and SADs. Higher taxes, strong mass media campaigns, and cessation treatment policies would further reduce smoking prevalence and SADs.

  9. Stochastic modelling for financial bubbles and policy

    OpenAIRE

    Fry, John

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we draw upon the close relationship between statistical physics and mathematical finance to develop a suite of models for financial bubbles and crashes. By modifying previous approaches, we are able to derive novel analytical formulae for evaluation problems and for the expected timing of future change points. In particular, we help to explain why previous approaches have systematically overstated the timing of changes in market regime. The list of potential empirical applicati...

  10. Assessing climate impacts of planning policies-An estimation for the urban region of Leipzig (Germany)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwarz, Nina; Bauer, Annette; Haase, Dagmar

    2011-01-01

    Local climate regulation by urban green areas is an important urban ecosystem service, as it reduces the extent of the urban heat island and therefore enhances quality of life. Local and regional planning policies can control land use changes in an urban region, which in turn alter local climate regulation. Thus, this paper describes a method for estimating the impacts of current land uses as well as local and regional planning policies on local climate regulation, using evapotranspiration and land surface emissivity as indicators. This method can be used by practitioners to evaluate their policies. An application of this method is demonstrated for the case study Leipzig (Germany). Results for six selected planning policies in Leipzig indicate their distinct impacts on climate regulation and especially the role of their spatial extent. The proposed method was found to easily produce a qualitative assessment of impacts of planning policies on climate regulation.

  11. Interaction of the EU ETS and national climate policy instruments – Impact on biomass use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kautto, N.; Arasto, A.; Sijm, J.; Peck, P.

    2012-01-01

    Policy-makers apply multiple policy instruments simultaneously in the climate and energy policy field at both EU and Member State levels. This creates interactions between instruments that can be complementary and synergistic but also conflicting. This article focuses on the interactions of climate policy instruments and their impact on biomass use. The objectives are to examine interactions of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) with the main national climate policy instruments and to identify the influence of these on biomass use. The work draws experiences from seven EU countries (Austria, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom), with a special focus on Finland and Sweden. The analysis explores the effects of policy interactions and is based on an examination of literature, and interviews with biomass experts in research, industry and policy spheres. Results indicate that the combined effects of climate policy instruments have a tangible impact on biomass use, whereas the causal links to the EU ETS are difficult to assess separately. Policy impacts found include increased competition for biomass resources, changes in fuel mixes and a contribution to upward pressure on wood prices. Differences in these effects are linked to differing national policy mixes and energy-carrier portfolios – an example being the relative differences in the importance of peat to the energy mix in Finland and Sweden. Analysis and comparison of the effects in the selected countries can yield insight on how to improve the design of policy interventions that impact biomass use. This study confirms the importance of identifying interactions between policy instruments so as to recognise – and manage – synergies and conflicts. The development of more synergistic and coordinated policy instrument mixes would also be beneficial for the bioenergy field. -- Highlights: ► Combined effects of climate policy instruments have a tangible impact on biomass

  12. Modeling policy issues in a world of imperfect competition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dierker, Egbert; Grodal, Birgit

    1998-01-01

    General equilibrium theory constitutes a sound basis for the discussion of policy issues if firms do not have market power. However, if firms influence prices strategically, the concept of profits loses its meaning due to the price normalization problem. Hence, it is unclear how to model the beha......General equilibrium theory constitutes a sound basis for the discussion of policy issues if firms do not have market power. However, if firms influence prices strategically, the concept of profits loses its meaning due to the price normalization problem. Hence, it is unclear how to model...... as well as on shareholders' aggregate demand...

  13. The impact of planning policies on bicycle-transit integration in Calgary

    OpenAIRE

    Sasha Tsenkova; David Mahalek

    2014-01-01

    Efforts to manage Canadian cities through smart growth policies emphasize the importance of integrated public transit system and bicycle-transit integration. The goal of this paper is to review the impact of planning policies that promote utilitarian cycling on the provision of bicycle facilities (pathways, bikeways and parking) in Calgary. The focus is on new suburban communities built since the 1990s, where new policies and standards affecting cycling have been implemented. The methodology ...

  14. Stochastic modelling for financial bubbles and policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Fry

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we draw upon the close relationship between statistical physics and mathematical finance to develop a suite of models for financial bubbles and crashes. By modifying previous approaches, we are able to derive novel analytical formulae for evaluation problems and for the expected timing of future change points. In particular, we help to explain why previous approaches have systematically overstated the timing of changes in market regime. The list of potential empirical applications is deep and wide ranging, and includes contemporary housing bubbles, the Eurozone crisis and the Crash of 2008.

  15. Projection of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions by motor vehicles in China: Policy options and impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huo Hong; Wang, Michael; Zhang Xiliang; He Kebin; Gong Huiming; Jiang Kejun; Jin Yuefu; Shi Yaodong; Yu Xin

    2012-01-01

    We project the well-to-wheels (WTW) and tank-to-wheels (TTW) fossil-energy use, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the road-transport sector in China up to year 2050 and evaluate the effects of various potential policy options with the fuel economy and environmental impacts (FEEI) model ( (http://www.feeimodel.org/)). The policies evaluated include (1) vehicle fuel-consumption improvements, (2) dieselization, (3) vehicle electrification, and (4) fuel diversification, with plausible policy scenarios. Under the business-as-usual scenario, road transport in China would create 410–520 million metric tons (MMT) of oil-equivalent of TTW oil demand (three to four times the current level), 28–36 billion GJ of WTW energy demand, and 1900–2300 MMT of CO 2 -equivalent of WTW GHG emissions by 2050. The policies (in the same order as above) are projected to reduce the TTW oil demand by 35%, 10%, 29%, and 44%, and reduce WTW GHG emissions by 34%, 5%, 12%, and 13%, respectively, by 2050. This evaluation reveals that the fuel-consumption improvement policy could achieve greater benefit in reducing oil use, fossil-energy use, and GHG emissions. Implications of each policy option are discussed and the uncertainties associated with the policy scenarios are analyzed. - Highlights: ► Fuel-cycle energy use and GHG emissions of vehicles in China are projected up to 2050. ► Various policies are evaluated with the fuel economy and environmental impacts model. ► Fuel economy standards have greatest benefit in saving energy use and GHG emissions. ► Electrification is effective. Benefit of dieselization and fuel blending is limited.

  16. The Impact of School Culture on Schools' Pupil Well-Being Policy-Making Capacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Gasse, Roos; Vanhoof, Jan; Van Petegem, Peter

    2016-01-01

    Pupil well-being has been an important topic in educational research for some time. Differences between schools in their influence on the well-being of their pupils are attributed to the policy-making capacities of the school. Little is known about schools' policy-making capacities with regard to pupil well-being, and the impact of school culture…

  17. The Places Toolkit for the Impact Assessment of Science Communication Initiatives and Policies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Tine; Mejlgaard, Niels

    2012-01-01

    This document has been created for the purpose of serving as an instrument for the measure of the impact of initiatives and policies within the area of science communication and scientific culture in general (SCIP: Science Communication Initiatives and Policies). The toolkit is part of the European...... project PLACES (Platform of Local Authorities and Communicators Engaged in Science)....

  18. The Impact of Assessment Policy on Learning: Replacement Exams or Grade Dropping

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDermott, Raymond J.

    2013-01-01

    Instructors often debate the merits of alternate grading policies such as dropping the lowest exam or offering an additional exam to replace the lowest score. To date, there has been little research conducted on the impact of these policies on performance. In this study, the author investigates student performance in intermediate macroeconomics…

  19. The impact of monetisation policy on public service: a case study of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigated the impact of monetisation policy on the performance of the public service. A case study of Nigerian Copyright Commission, a public service was carried out, with a view to examining the thrust, implementation, prospects and challenges of the policy. Primary data was gathered through a structured ...

  20. The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Poverty in Ethiopia: A Computable ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ethiopia has implemented various fiscal policy reforms in the past decade. Most of these reforms center on indirect taxes and pro-poor expenditure patterns. This study investigates the economy-wide impacts of these fiscal policy changes on poverty. To this effect, the study used a static computable general equilibrium ...

  1. The Impact of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy on Investor Sentiment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lutz, Chandler

    2015-01-01

    the fed funds rate is at its zero lower bound, research results indicate that expansionary unconventional monetary policy shocks also have a large and positive impact on investor mood. Together, our findings highlight the importance of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy...

  2. The impact of policy on firms' performance: the case of CNC machine tool industry in India

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kumar, A.

    2003-01-01

    This study is about understanding how the government policy actually works at firm level in the context of developing countries' industrialization. In the literature, the discussions on impact of government policy on corporate performance primarily stress on macroeconomic aspects of industrial

  3. Do Social Policy Reforms Have Different Impacts on Employment and Welfare Use as Economic Conditions Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbst, Chris M.

    2008-01-01

    This paper uses March Current Population Survey data from 1985 to 2004 to explore whether social policy reforms implemented throughout the 1990s have different impacts on employment and welfare use depending on economic conditions, a topic with important policy implications but which has received little attention from researchers. I find evidence…

  4. Equality machineries matter: The impact of women's political pressure on European social care policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bleijenbergh, I.L.; Roggeband, C.M.

    2007-01-01

    This study examines the impact of feminist pressure and European Union (EU) policies on national policy changes, such as the introduction or extension of public childcare provision, parental leave, and part-time work legislation. We compared six countries on the basis of Qualitative Comparative

  5. National Language Policy and Its Impacts on Second Language Reading Culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azmi, Mohd Nazri Latiff

    2013-01-01

    This research concentrates on Malaysian language policy and its impacts on the development of English language (regarded as a second language in Malaysia) specifically on reading culture. The main objectives of this research are to investigate the weaknesses and strengths of the policy and also to come out with recommendations to improve the…

  6. Education Policy in Poland: The Impact of PISA (and Other International Studies)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bialecki, Ireneusz; Jakubowski, Maciej; Wisniewski, Jerzy

    2017-01-01

    The impact of the PISA study on Polish education policy has been significant, but probably different from any other country. Poland has not experienced the so-called "PISA shock," but its education system has been benefiting considerably from PISA. For experts and policy makers, it has been a useful and reliable instrument that has made…

  7. Production functions for climate policy modeling. An empirical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Werf, Edwin

    2008-01-01

    Quantitative models for climate policy modeling differ in the production structure used and in the sizes of the elasticities of substitution. The empirical foundation for both is generally lacking. This paper estimates the parameters of 2-level CES production functions with capital, labour and energy as inputs, and is the first to systematically compare all nesting structures. Using industry-level data from 12 OECD countries, we find that the nesting structure where capital and labour are combined first, fits the data best, but for most countries and industries we cannot reject that all three inputs can be put into one single nest. These two nesting structures are used by most climate models. However, while several climate policy models use a Cobb-Douglas function for (part of the) production function, we reject elasticities equal to one, in favour of considerably smaller values. Finally we find evidence for factor-specific technological change. With lower elasticities and with factor-specific technological change, some climate policy models may find a bigger effect of endogenous technological change on mitigating the costs of climate policy. (author)

  8. Public participation and environmental impact assessment: Purposes, implications, and lessons for public policy making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Faircheallaigh, Ciaran

    2010-01-01

    In recent years the need to enhance public participation in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), and the efficacy of alternative mechanisms in achieving this goal, have been central themes in the EIA literature. The benefits of public participation are often taken for granted, and partly for this reason the underlying rationale for greater public participation is sometimes poorly articulated, making it more difficult to determine how to pursue it effectively. The reasons for seeking public participation are also highly diverse and not always mutually consistent. There has been limited analysis of the implications of different forms and degrees of public participation for public decision making based on EIA, and little discussion of how experience with public participation in EIA relates to debates about participation in policy making generally. This paper distinguishes various purposes for public participation in EIA, and discusses their implications for decision making. It then draws on some general models of public participation in policy making to consider how approaches to participation in EIA can be interpreted and valued, and asks what EIA experience reveals about the utility of these models. It argues that the models pay insufficient attention to the interaction that can occur between different forms of public participation; and to the fact that public participation raises issues regarding control over decision making that are not subject to resolution, but must be managed through ongoing processes of negotiation.

  9. The Impact of the Regional Policy on the European Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romeo-Victor Ionescu

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, EU28 operates in a very sensitive socio-economic environment. This is why the paper faces to the idea of changing the political approach in the EU. In order to support this idea, two essential common policies (Regional Policy and Cohesion Policy are analyzed, using pertinent indicators, as GDP per capita, gross value added and labor productivity. A comparative analysis covers EU28 and Euro area. On the other hand, the regional analysis points out the economic disparities between NUTS2 regions. The intermediate conclusions of the analysis led to a cluster approach for the Member States. Moreover, the forecasting procedures applied to the above three economic indicators led to the same idea: an EU more divided than integrated. The main conclusion of the paper is that the present economic approach has to be change into another focused on maintaining and, after that, decreasing the present European socio-economic disparities.

  10. Public policy for children in Brazil – the process of implementation of a new model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Stumpf González

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Recently happened the 25th anniversary of the approval of the Child and Adolescent Statute. Which goals are achieved? What changed? This work analyses the Brazilian case in implementation of a new paradigm of children rights and his impact in the definition of aconcrete agenda of public policies, doing an evaluation of the new model and the changes, with focus of the development of a agenda of policies in four subjects: creation of councils, attention for the young lawbreakers, exploitation of child labour and sexual violence against children. At the end are discussed motivation for partial success in implementation of the agenda and responsibilities of the institutional actors involved.

  11. The Impacts of Internationalization on Quality Assurance Policy: A Comparative Study of Finland and Taiwan

    OpenAIRE

    LIU, PO-YUN

    2008-01-01

    Internationalization and quality assurance have become the central considerations of higher education development currently. The aim of this research is to explore and compare the impacts of internationalization on quality assurance policy in Finland and Taiwan. To achieve this aim, the general impacts of internationalization on quality assurance policy have been discussed first. Next, the empirical research of Finland and Taiwan are conducted by qualitative interviews of higher education pol...

  12. A multiple perspective modeling and simulation approach for renewable energy policy evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alyamani, Talal M.

    Environmental issues and reliance on fossil fuel sources, including coal, oil, and natural gas, are the two most common energy issues that are currently faced by the United States (U.S.). Incorporation of renewable energy sources, a non-economical option in electricity generation compared to conventional sources that burn fossil fuels, single handedly promises a viable solution for both of these issues. Several energy policies have concordantly been suggested to reduce the financial burden of adopting renewable energy technologies and make such technologies competitive with conventional sources throughout the U.S. This study presents a modeling and analysis approach for comprehensive evaluation of renewable energy policies with respect to their benefits to various related stakeholders--customers, utilities, governmental and environmental agencies--where the debilitating impacts, advantages, and disadvantages of such policies can be assessed and quantified at the state level. In this work, a novel simulation framework is presented to help policymakers promptly assess and evaluate policies from different perspectives of its stakeholders. The proposed framework is composed of four modules: 1) a database that collates the economic, operational, and environmental data; 2) elucidation of policy, which devises the policy for the simulation model; 3) a preliminary analysis, which makes predictions for consumption, supply, and prices; and 4) a simulation model. After the validity of the proposed framework is demonstrated, a series of planned Florida and Texas renewable energy policies are implemented into the presented framework as case studies. Two solar and one energy efficiency programs are selected as part of the Florida case study. A utility rebate and federal tax credit programs are selected as part of the Texas case study. The results obtained from the simulation and conclusions drawn on the assessment of current energy policies are presented with respect to the

  13. Policy Trends Impacting Community Colleges: An ECS Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sponsler, Brian A.; Pingel, Sarah; Anderson, Lexi

    2015-01-01

    Given the importance of community and technical colleges to state education attainment and workforce development goals, policy addressing the two-year sector is of critical importance to state policymakers. Analysis of legislative issue trends suggests transfer and articulation, performance-based funding, and financial aid programs are substantial…

  14. Investigating the impact of agrarian policies on conflict and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2011-07-14

    Jul 14, 2011 ... ... a timely fashion — and the complexity and confusion of the administrative process — had surprising consequences, giving the government time to implement a development policy that reassigned the Yucatán's agrarian "surplus population" to new work in maquiladoras and the growing tourism industry, ...

  15. The Impacts of State Control Policies on College Tuition Increase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Mikyong Minsun; Ko, Jangwan

    2015-01-01

    This study examined state efforts to control tuition increases over the past 10 years. Using data from 50 states and 540 public 4-year universities and colleges, we examined average tuition increases in dollar amount and percentage of change by the type of state tuition control policy and by the authority for tuition-setting power. The state…

  16. 41 CFR 101-25.111 - Environmental impact policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... support of the national policy. (b) With respect to the procurement, management, and disposal of personal... actions as may be required when expediency is of prime importance. Further, the Federal regulatory...; especially the directive that environmental concerns, effects, and values shall be given appropriate...

  17. Impact of Wisconsin Medicaid Policy Change on Dental Sealant Utilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okunseri, Christopher; Okunseri, Elaye; Garcia, Raul I; Gonzalez, Cesar; Visotcky, Alexis; Szabo, Aniko

    2018-02-01

    In September 2006, Wisconsin Medicaid changed its policy to allow nondentists to become certified Medicaid providers and to bill for sealants in public health settings. This study examined changes in patterns of dental sealant utilization in first molars of Wisconsin Medicaid enrollees associated with a policy change. The Electronic Data Systems of Medicaid Evaluation and Decision Support for Wisconsin from 2001 to 2009. Retrospective claims data analysis of Wisconsin Dental Medicaid for children aged 6-16 years. A total of 479,847 children followed up for 1,441,300 person-years with 64,546 visits were analyzed. The rate of visits for sealants by dentists increased significantly from 3 percent per year prepolicy to 11 percent per year postpolicy, and that of nondentists increased from 18 percent per year to 20 percent after the policy change, but this was not significant. Non-Hispanic blacks had the lowest visit rates for sealant application by dentists and nondentists pre- and postpolicy periods. The Wisconsin Medicaid policy change was associated with increased rates of visits for dental sealant placement by dentists. The rate of visits with sealant placements by nondentists increased at the same rate pre- and postpolicy change. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  18. Beyond Terminology: The Policy Impact of a Grassroots Movement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Marty; Acosta, Annie; Sutcliffe, T. J.

    2013-01-01

    This article discusses the history of the grassroots movement led by self-advocates and their families to replace the stigmatizing term "mental retardation" with "intellectual disability" in federal statute. It also describes recent and pending changes in federal regulations and policy to adopt the new terminology for Social Security and Medicaid.

  19. The Impact of State Abortion Policies on Teen Pregnancy Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medoff, Marshall

    2010-01-01

    The availability of abortion provides insurance against unwanted pregnancies since abortion is the only birth control method which allows women to avoid an unwanted birth once they are pregnant. Restrictive state abortion policies, which increase the cost of obtaining an abortion, may increase women's incentive to alter their pregnancy avoidance…

  20. Clinical review: impact of statin substitution policies on patient outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Atar, Dan; Carmena, Rafael; Clemmensen, Peter

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The increasing awareness of cost issues in health care has led to the increasing use of policy-driven substitution of branded for generic medications, particularly relative to statin treatment for cardiovascular diseases. While there are potential short-term health care savings, the c...

  1. Clinical review: impact of statin substitution policies on patient outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Atar, Dan; Carmena, Rafael; Clemmensen, Peter; K-Laflamme, Annik; Wassmann, Sven; Lansberg, Peter; Hobbs, Richard

    2009-01-01

    The increasing awareness of cost issues in health care has led to the increasing use of policy-driven substitution of branded for generic medications, particularly relative to statin treatment for cardiovascular diseases. While there are potential short-term health care savings, the consequences for

  2. Policies for reduced deforestation and their impact on agricultural production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelsen, Arild

    2010-11-16

    Policies to effectively reduce deforestation are discussed within a land rent (von Thünen) framework. The first set of policies attempts to reduce the rent of extensive agriculture, either by neglecting extension, marketing, and infrastructure, generating alternative income opportunities, stimulating intensive agricultural production or by reforming land tenure. The second set aims to increase either extractive or protective forest rent and--more importantly--create institutions (community forest management) or markets (payment for environmental services) that enable land users to capture a larger share of the protective forest rent. The third set aims to limit forest conversion directly by establishing protected areas. Many of these policy options present local win-lose scenarios between forest conservation and agricultural production. Local yield increases tend to stimulate agricultural encroachment, contrary to the logic of the global food equation that suggests yield increases take pressure off forests. At national and global scales, however, policy makers are presented with a more pleasant scenario. Agricultural production in developing countries has increased by 3.3-3.4% annually over the last 2 decades, whereas gross deforestation has increased agricultural area by only 0.3%, suggesting a minor role of forest conversion in overall agricultural production. A spatial delinking of remaining forests and intensive production areas should also help reconcile conservation and production goals in the future.

  3. Mapping and modelling ecosystem services for science, policy and practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burkhard, B.; Crossman, N.; Nedkov, S.; Petz, K.; Alkemade, R.

    2013-01-01

    Ecosystem services are a significant research and policy topic and there are many modelling and mapping approaches aimed at understanding the stocks, demands and flows of ecosystem services on different spatial and temporal scales. The integration of geo-biophysical processes and structure

  4. An applied general equilibrium model for Dutch agribusiness policy analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peerlings, J.

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis was to develop a basic static applied general equilibrium (AGE) model to analyse the effects of agricultural policy changes on Dutch agribusiness. In particular the effects on inter-industry transactions, factor demand, income, and trade are of

  5. Reducing US cardiovascular disease burden and disparities through national and targeted dietary policies: A modelling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Large socio-economic disparities exist in US dietary habits and cardiovascular disease (CVD mortality. While economic incentives have demonstrated success in improving dietary choices, the quantitative impact of different dietary policies on CVD disparities is not well established. We aimed to quantify and compare the potential effects on total CVD mortality and disparities of specific dietary policies to increase fruit and vegetable (F&V consumption and reduce sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB consumption in the US.Using the US IMPACT Food Policy Model and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, we estimated and compared the reductions in CVD mortality and socio-economic disparities in the US population potentially achievable from 2015 to 2030 with specific dietary policy scenarios: (a a national mass media campaign (MMC aimed to increase consumption of F&Vs and reduce consumption of SSBs, (b a national fiscal policy to tax SSBs to increase prices by 10%, (c a national fiscal policy to subsidise F&Vs to reduce prices by 10%, and (d a targeted policy to subsidise F&Vs to reduce prices by 30% among Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP participants only. We also evaluated a combined policy approach, combining all of the above policies. Data sources included the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, National Vital Statistics System, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, and published meta-analyses. Among the individual policy scenarios, a national 10% F&V subsidy was projected to be most beneficial, potentially resulting in approximately 150,500 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 141,400-158,500 CVD deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs by 2030 in the US. This far exceeds the approximately 35,100 (95% UI 31,700-37,500 DPPs potentially attributable to a 30% F&V subsidy targeting SNAP participants, the approximately 25,800 (95% UI 24,300-28,500 DPPs for a 1-y MMC, or the approximately 31,000 (95% UI 26,800-35,300 DPPs for a 10

  6. How do we define the policy impact of public health research? A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alla, Kristel; Hall, Wayne D; Whiteford, Harvey A; Head, Brian W; Meurk, Carla S

    2017-10-02

    In order to understand and measure the policy impact of research we need a definition of research impact that is suited to the task. This article systematically reviewed both peer-reviewed and grey literature for definitions of research impact to develop a definition of research impact that can be used to investigate how public health research influences policy. Keyword searches of the electronic databases Web of Science, ProQuest, PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, Informit, PsycINFO, The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and Google Scholar were conducted between August 2015 and April 2016. Keywords included 'definition' and 'policy' and 'research impact' or 'research evidence'. The search terms 'health', public health' or 'mental health' and 'knowledge transfer' or 'research translation' were used to focus the search on relevant health discipline approaches. Studies included in the review described processes, theories or frameworks associated with public health, health services or mental health policy. We identified 108 definitions in 83 publications. The key findings were that literature on research impact is growing, but only 23% of peer-reviewed publications on the topic explicitly defined the term and that the majority (76%) of definitions were derived from research organisations and funding institutions. We identified four main types of definition, namely (1) definitions that conceptualise research impacts in terms of positive changes or effects that evidence can bring about when transferred into policies (example Research Excellence Framework definition), (2) definitions that interpret research impacts as measurable outcomes (Research Councils UK), and (3) bibliometric and (4) use-based definitions. We identified four constructs underpinning these definitions that related to concepts of contribution, change, avenues and levels of impact. The dominance of bureaucratic definitions, the tendency to discuss but not define the concept of research impact, and the

  7. Quantification model of the consequences of monetary policy shocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Emilia POPA

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The monetary analysis based on the BVAR (Bayesian Vector Autoregression model is extremely important in the monetary policy implementation strategy, the information provided is important not only for the Central Bank, but also for the economic agents and the population. Therefore, conducting this analysis at the level of Romania helps to understand better the mechanism by which monetary policy is transmitted in order to achieve the set target, namely inflation targeting, but it also provides us with important information regarding the accession to the euro area. The model we are trying to test helps us understand through the correlations between the interest rate, GDP and the inflation rate how monetary policy responds to shocks. The model follows the methodology presented by Sims and Zha (1998 in the paper "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models and Using the Bayesian Autoregressive Vector". In the analysis of this model, quarterly data for a minimum of three years, three variables are used to make the results relevant. The data needed to model the model are used in logarithmic form, except for the interest rate, and the outcome is applied to a differentiated premium operator. Of the variables used, the interest rate is the only one that does not allow seasonal adjustment.

  8. THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON COMPETITION POLICY EFFECTIVENESS WITHIN EUROPEAN UNION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragoi Ionut

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, more and more countries have enacted competition laws, understanding the importance of this process in providing a normal functioning of the economy. Analyzing competition policy effectiveness is important not only because of the recent extent of the phenomenon, but also because of the impact of competition policy effectiveness on economic development and, in the current economic climate, on the economic recovery process. For this reason, quantitative evaluation for competition policy effectiveness became very useful as data handling and understanding the whole phenomenon are easier this way and an international perspective is provided. This was made possible by various international institutions that have created a system of aggregated indicators for the evaluation of competition law enforcement and competition advocacy (perceived effectiveness. The purpose of our research is to identify the macroeconomic factors that influence the effectiveness of competition law implementation within the European Union Member States. We have tasted the influence of 13 macroeconomic, using panel data methodology and data from the last four years. We obtained ß coefficients statistically significant only for 11 of them. The results are consistent with prior analyzed studies and economic logic: positive influence from market division, intensity of local competition, ethical behavior of firms, strength of auditing and reporting standards, efficiency of legal framework in settling disputes, protection of minority shareholders’ interests, public trust of politicians, economic dimension and market size and negative influence from corruption level and diversion of public funds. Based on the achieved results we can perform an analysis of principal components leading to causal space reduction with minimal information loss and without informational redundancy, creating the premises for building a model that explains competition policy

  9. What Can Policy Analysis Add to Evaluation Research?: Predictive Modeling and Policy Optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagel, Stuart S.

    Policy analysis, or policy study, is defined as the study of the nature, causes, and effects of alternative public policies; sometimes policy analysis refers to specific methods used. Two new developments associated with policy analysis are discussed. One is the concern for deducing the effects of alternative policies before they are adopted, as…

  10. Global impacts of U.S. bioenergy production and policy: A general equilibrium perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Samuel Garner

    The conversion of biomass to energy represents a promising pathway forward in efforts to reduce fossil fuel use in the transportation and electricity sectors. In addition to potential benefits, such as greenhouse gas reductions and increased energy security, bioenergy production also presents a unique set of challenges. These challenges include tradeoffs between food and fuel production, distortions in energy markets, and terrestrial emissions associated with changing land-use patterns. Each of these challenges arises from market-mediated responses to bioenergy production, and are therefore largely economic in nature. This dissertation directly addresses these opportunities and challenges by evaluating the economic impacts of U.S. bioenergy production and policy, focusing on both existing and future biomass-to-energy pathways. The analysis approaches the issue from a global, economy-wide perspective, reflecting two important facts. First, that large-scale bioenergy production connects multiple sectors of the economy due to the use of agricultural land resources for biomass production, and competition with fossil fuels in energy markets. Second, markets for both agricultural and energy commodities are highly integrated globally, causing domestic policies to have international effects. The reader can think of this work as being comprised of three parts. Part I provides context through an extensive review of the literature on the market-mediated effects of conventional biofuel production (Chapter 2) and develops a general equilibrium modeling framework for assessing the extent to which these phenomenon present a challenge for future bioenergy pathways (Chapter 3). Part II (Chapter 4) explores the economic impacts of the lignocellulosic biofuel production targets set in the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard on global agricultural and energy commodity markets. Part III (Chapter 5) extends the analysis to consider potential inefficiencies associated with policy

  11. The Impact of Beijing Subway’s New Fare Policy on Riders’ Attitude, Travel Pattern and Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiechao Zhang

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available On 28 December 2014, the Beijing subway’s fare policy was changed from “Two Yuan” per trip to the era of Logging Ticket Price, charging users by travel mileage. This paper aims at investigating the effects of Beijing subway’s new fare policy on the riders’ attitude, travel pattern and demand. A survey analysis was conducted to identify the effects of the new fare policy for Beijing subway on riders’ satisfaction degree and travel pattern associated with the potential influencing factors using Hierarchical Tree-based Regression (HTBR models. The model results show that income, travel distance and month of travel have significant impacts on the subway riders’ satisfaction degree, while trip purpose, car ownership and travel frequency significantly influence the riders’ stated travel pattern. Overall, the degree of satisfaction could not be effectively recovered within five months after the new fare policy, but the negative public attitude did not depress the subway demand continuously. Based on the further time sequence analyses of the passenger flow volume data for two years, it is concluded that the new policy made the ridership decrease sharply in the first month but gradually came back to the previous level four months later, and then the passenger flow volume kept steady again. The findings in this study indicate that the new fare policy realized the purpose of lowering the government’s financial pressure but did not reduce the subway ridership in a long term perspective.

  12. The impact of environmental policy instruments on the timing of adoption of energy-saving technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    van Soest, Daan P.

    2005-01-01

    One of the main considerations in designing environmental policy is the impact of policy instruments on the timing of firms' investment decisions with respect to energy-saving technologies. This paper analyzes the impact of environmental taxes and quotas on the timing of adoption when (i) the rate at which new, improved energy-efficient technologies become available, is uncertain, and (ii) the investment decision is (at least partially) irreversible. We find that neither policy instrument is unambiguously preferred to the other when it comes to stimulating early adoption of new technologies. (author) (Environmental taxation; Command-and-control instruments; Dynamic efficiency; Stochasticity)

  13. Impacts of Changing Marijuana Policies on Alcohol Use in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guttmannova, Katarina; Lee, Christine M; Kilmer, Jason R; Fleming, Charles B; Rhew, Isaac C; Kosterman, Rick; Larimer, Mary E

    2016-01-01

    Marijuana policies are rapidly evolving. In the United States, recreational use of marijuana is now legal in 4 states and medical marijuana is legal in 23 states. Research evaluating such policies has focused primarily on how policies affect issues of price, access to, use, and consequences of marijuana. Due to potential spillover effects, researchers also need to examine how marijuana policies may impact use and consequences of alcohol. The current paper is a critical review of articles evaluating alcohol outcomes associated with marijuana decriminalization, medical marijuana legalization, and nonmedical or recreational marijuana legalization. We identified articles and reports through (1) online searches of EBSCO host database including Academic Search Premier, Econlit, Legal Collection, Medline, PsycARTICLES, and PsycINFO, as well as PubMed and Google Scholar databases; (2) review of additional articles cited in papers identified through electronic searches; and (3) targeted searches of state and local government records regarding marijuana law implementation. We reviewed studies with respect to their data sources and sample characteristics, methodology, and the margin of alcohol and marijuana use, timing of policy change, and the aspects of laws examined. The extant literature provides some evidence for both substitution (i.e., more liberal marijuana policies related to less alcohol use as marijuana becomes a substitute) and complementary (i.e., more liberal marijuana policies related to increases in both marijuana and alcohol use) relationships in the context of liberalization of marijuana policies in the United States. Impact of more liberal marijuana policies on alcohol use is complex, and likely depends on specific aspects of policy implementation, including how long the policy has been in place. Furthermore, evaluation of marijuana policy effects on alcohol use may be sensitive to the age group studied and the margin of alcohol use examined. Design of

  14. Impacts of Changing Marijuana Policies on Alcohol Use in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guttmannova, Katarina; Lee, Christine M.; Kilmer, Jason R.; Fleming, Charles B.; Rhew, Isaac C.; Kosterman, Rick; Larimer, Mary E.

    2015-01-01

    Background Marijuana policies are rapidly evolving. In the United States, recreational use of marijuana is now legal in four states and medical marijuana is legal in 23 states. Research evaluating such policies has focused primarily on how policies affect issues of price, access to, use, and consequences of marijuana. Due to potential spillover effects, researchers also need to examine how marijuana policies may impact use and consequences of alcohol. Methods The current paper is a critical review of articles evaluating alcohol outcomes associated with marijuana decriminalization, medical marijuana legalization, and non-medical or recreational marijuana legalization. We identified articles and reports through (1) online searches of EBSCO host database including Academic search premier, Econlit, Legal collection, Medline, Psych articles, and PsycINFO, as well as PubMed and Google Scholar databases; (2) review of additional articles cited in papers identified through electronic searches; and (3) targeted searches of state and local government records regarding marijuana law implementation. We reviewed studies with respect to their data sources and sample characteristics, methodology, and the margin of alcohol and marijuana use, timing of policy change, and the aspects of laws examined. Results The extant literature provides some evidence for both substitution (i.e., more liberal marijuana policies related to less alcohol use as marijuana becomes a substitute) and complementary (i.e., more liberal marijuana policies related to increases in both marijuana and alcohol use) relationships in the context of liberalization of marijuana policies in the United States. Conclusions Impact of more liberal marijuana policies on alcohol use is complex, and likely depends on specific aspects of policy implementation, including how long the policy has been in place. Further, evaluation of marijuana policy effects on alcohol use may be sensitive to the age group studied and the

  15. Impacts of imports, government policy and technology on future natural gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allison, E.

    2009-01-01

    This presentation discussed the impacts of imports, government policy and technology on future natural gas supply. Specifically, it discussed projections of natural gas supply and demand; the potential impact of imports on United States natural gas supply; the potential impacts of government policy on natural gas supply and demand; and the impact of technological innovations on natural gas supply such as coalbed methane and methane hydrate. Specific government policies that were examined included the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009; the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009; and the Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act of 2009. It was concluded that the United States demand for natural gas will expand and that the impact of pending clean energy legislation is unclear. In addition, each potential future resource will face constraints and new resources may come on line in the next 20 years. figs.

  16. Modeling Freight Ocean Rail and Truck Transportation Flows to Support Policy Analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gearhart, Jared Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wang, Hao [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States); Nozick, Linda Karen [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States); Xu, Ningxiong [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Freight transportation represents about 9.5% of GDP, is responsible for about 8% of greenhouse gas emissions and supports the import and export of about 3.6 trillion in international trade; hence it is important that our national freight transportation system is designed and operated efficiently and embodies user fees and other policies that balance costs and environmental consequences. Hence, this paper develops a mathematical model to estimate international and domestic freight flows across ocean, rail and truck modes which can be used to study the impacts of changes in our infrastructure as well as the imposition of new user fees and changes in operating policies. This model is applied to two case studies: (1) a disruption of the maritime ports at Los Angeles/Long Beach similar to the impacts that would be felt in an earthquake; and (2) implementation of new user fees at the California ports.

  17. The Politics of Healthy Policies: Redesigning health impact assessment to integrate health in public policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.P.M. Bekker (Marleen)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractPublic health issues, such as obesity, lung disease from air pollution or mental health complaints from living in an unsafe neighbourhood, are complex, intractable policy problems. The causes are dispersed at the individual and the collective level among different societal

  18. A Computable OLG Model for Gender and Growth Policy Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Pierre-Richard Agénor

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops a computable Overlapping Generations (OLG) model for gender and growth policy analysis. The model accounts for human and physical capital accumulation (both public and private), intra- and inter-generational health persistence, fertility choices, and women's time allocation between market work, child rearing, and home production. Bargaining between spouses and gender bias, in the form of discrimination in the work place and mothers' time allocation between daughters and so...

  19. Generating WS-SecurityPolicy documents via security model transformation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Meiko

    2009-01-01

    When SOA-based business processes are to be enhanced with security properties, the model-driven business process development approach enables an easier and more reliable security definition compared to manually crafting the security realizations afterwards. In this paper, we outline an appropriate...... security model definition and transformation approach, targeting the WS-SecurityPolicy and WS-BPEL specifications, in order to enable a Web-Service-based secure business process development....

  20. Impact of Fishery Policy on Fishery Manufacture Output, Economy and Welfare in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firmansyah; Oktavilia, Shanty; Sugiyanto, F. X.; Hamzah, Ibnu N.

    2018-02-01

    The fisheries sector and fish manufacturing industry are the bright prospect sectors of Indonesia, due to its huge potency, which has not been worked out optimally. In facts, these sectors can generate a large amount of foreign exchange. The Government has paid significant attention to the development of these sectors. This study simulates the impact of fishery policies on the production of fish manufacturing industry, national economic and welfare in Indonesia. By employing the Input-Output Analysis approach, impacts of various government policy scenarios are developed, covering fisheries technical policy, as well as infrastructure development policies in the fisheries sector. This study indicates that the policies in the fisheries sector increase the output of fishery, the production of fish manufacturing industry, the sectoral and national outputs, as well as the level of national income.

  1. Replenishment policy for an inventory model under inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Vikramjeet; Saxena, Seema; Singh, Pushpinder; Mishra, Nitin Kumar

    2017-07-01

    The purpose of replenishment is to keep the flow of inventory in the system. To determine an optimal replenishment policy is a great challenge in developing an inventory model. Inflation is defined as the rate at which the prices of goods and services are rising over a time period. The cost parameters are affected by the rate of inflation. High rate of inflation affects the organizations financial conditions. Based on the above backdrop the present paper proposes the retailers replenishment policy for deteriorating items with different cycle lengths under inflation. The shortages are partially backlogged. At last numerical examples validate the results.

  2. Advancing LGBT Elder Policy and Support Services: The Massachusetts Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krinsky, Lisa; Cahill, Sean R

    2017-12-01

    The Massachusetts-based LGBT Aging Project has trained elder service providers in affirming and culturally competent care for LGBT older adults, supported development of LGBT-friendly meal programs, and advanced LGBT equality under aging policy. Working across sectors, this innovative model launched the country's first statewide Legislative Commission on Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Aging. Advocates are working with policymakers to implement key recommendations, including cultural competency training and data collection in statewide networks of elder services. The LGBT Aging Project's success provides a template for improving services and policy for LGBT older adults throughout the country.

  3. Integrating Climate Change and Land Use Impacts to Explore Forest Conservation Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyeyeong Choe

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This study uses a scenario-based approach to ask what are the varying impacts to forest extent and biodiversity from sixteen climate change and forest conversion scenario combinations, and what do they suggest about future forest conservation policy directions? We projected these combinations onto existing forests in South Korea and grouped them into four forest categories. We used species distribution models for 1031 climate vulnerable plant species as a biodiversity index, and found that species richness loss due to forest conversion could be reduced significantly by deploying the scenarios which preserve forest areas that are climatically suitable for these species. Climate-suitable forest areas declined sharply and moved northward as future temperatures increase, and climate-suitable areas lost the highest proportion of forest extent under the current trend of forest conversion. We suggest climate refugia, defined as existing forests with suitable future climates, be protected from land use conversion as a way to preserve forest biodiversity. These spatially explicit results can be used for developing forest conservation policies, and the methods may be applicable to other forested regions. However, planners should consider the assumptions and uncertainties of climate projections, species distribution models, and land use trends when addressing forest biodiversity conservation.

  4. What model of science? Towards a sociologically oriented science policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorota Jedlikowska

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the contemporary global world the various models of making and distributing science are cultivated. The particular model of institutionalized science can significantly determine the quality of working both as a scientist and as a student. Research upon science environment in the meaning of investigation the framework of science influences for example the system of communication between different actors engaged in science, good practices, possibilities offered by particular context of science and facilities of acquiring the scientific knowledge etc. It this view the presented paper finds its justification directing analysis towards the quality of making science. Hence the paradigm of sociological science policy is strongly needed. The paper is going to reconstruct the key models which recognize contexts of making science and its numerous dimensions. The research is based on the set of literature founded through the digital key words searching process. The chosen literature recalls the most significant research based on science policy. Consequently the described models tend towards the most globalized and open models of making science to show the path of required changes into still founded coercive science structures mostly institutionalized by long-lasting tradition. The final conclusion states that more concrete steps in reformulating the science policy are required to obtain the desirable model of open science and at the same time to develop the high standing scientific priorities.

  5. Dynamic formulation of a top-down and bottom-up merging energy policy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frei, Christoph W.; Haldi, P.-A.; Sarlos, G.Gerard

    2003-01-01

    The impact of energy policy measures is not restricted to the energy system and should therefore be analysed within an economy-wide framework, while keeping the essential details of the energy sector. The aim of this paper is to present new developments in the field of the consistent evaluation of indicators for the sustainability assessment of energy policy measures. Starting from the static concept of Boehringer (Energy Econ. 20 (1998) 233), this paper shows how the complementarity format can be used in computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling for a dynamic formulation of bottom-up and top-down approach merging models. While a hybrid approach increases the credibility of CGE models in energy policy analysis by replacing the energy sector generic functional forms with a bottom-up activity analysis based on specific technologies, the endogenous formulation of investment decisions makes an explicit description of evolving specific capital stocks and technology mixes possible. Both features are essential when assessing effects of policy measures that may be affected by structural change--which is typically the case in the long-term assessment of energy policy measures

  6. Social Impact Management Plans : Innovation in corporate and public policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Franks, Daniel M.; Vanclay, Frank

    2013-01-01

    Social Impact Assessment (SIA) has traditionally been practiced as a predictive study for the regulatory approval of major projects, however, in recent years the drivers and domain of focus for SIA have shifted. This paper details the emergence of Social Impact Management Plans (SIMPs) and

  7. Dynamic and adaptive policy models for coalition operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Dinesh; Calo, Seraphin; Chakraborty, Supriyo; Bertino, Elisa; Williams, Chris; Tucker, Jeremy; Rivera, Brian; de Mel, Geeth R.

    2017-05-01

    It is envisioned that the success of future military operations depends on the better integration, organizationally and operationally, among allies, coalition members, inter-agency partners, and so forth. However, this leads to a challenging and complex environment where the heterogeneity and dynamism in the operating environment intertwines with the evolving situational factors that affect the decision-making life cycle of the war fighter. Therefore, the users in such environments need secure, accessible, and resilient information infrastructures where policy-based mechanisms adopt the behaviours of the systems to meet end user goals. By specifying and enforcing a policy based model and framework for operations and security which accommodates heterogeneous coalitions, high levels of agility can be enabled to allow rapid assembly and restructuring of system and information resources. However, current prevalent policy models (e.g., rule based event-condition-action model and its variants) are not sufficient to deal with the highly dynamic and plausibly non-deterministic nature of these environments. Therefore, to address the above challenges, in this paper, we present a new approach for policies which enables managed systems to take more autonomic decisions regarding their operations.

  8. Incorporating Labour Market Frictions into an Optimising-Based Monetary Policy Model

    OpenAIRE

    Moyen, S.; Sahuc, J-G.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the effects of introducing a non Walrasian labour market into the "New Neoclassical Synthesis'' framework. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is formulated, solved, and calibrated in order to evaluate its ability to replicate the main features of the Euro area economy. This framework allows us to study the effects of labour market rigidities, nominal rigidities, and other frictions to give account of the impact of monetary policy, technology, public spending, a...

  9. MONETARY POLICY UNDER THE IMPACT OF THE CURRENT GLOBAL CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zina Marcu (Cioran

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The issue of the financial crisis draws more and more the specialists’ attention. The monetary policy has a decisive role in monitoring and reducing the inflationary phenomenon as much as possible, since it can become a real danger for an economy during a period of crisis. Inflation is a negative thing that affects the economy. It discourages the investments and the economic growth. The aim of this paper is to find the Central Bank’s economic instruments and levers that can contribute to price stability in the economy. It was found that the elaboration of a measure of monetary policy with a restrictive feature can contribute to price stability on long term, but we should take into account the macroeconomic context in which it is applied.

  10. Impacts of Policies on Poverty. Relative Poverty Lines

    OpenAIRE

    Bellù, Lorenzo Giovanni; Liberati, Paolo

    2005-01-01

    This module illustrates how to define “relative” poverty lines, i.e. poverty lines based on approaches that consider the welfare position of each individual or household in relation to the welfare position of other individuals or households belonging to the same community. In particular, the module, after emphasizing the importance of the relative poverty concept in policy work, discusses two methods to define relative poverty lines: a) the “income levels” method; and b) the “income positions...

  11. China's Quest for Energy; Impact upon Foreign and Security Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiesow, Ingolf

    2004-11-01

    Contrary to Chinese intentions, the proportion of China's imports coming from potentially unstable countries is steadily increasing. As a response, China tries to diversify its sources of import and to own the oil when loaded in an export harbour. In spite of very high costs and political problems, China tries to import oil and gas from owned fields in Central Asia through pipelines. In the case of China, the competition is evident on the highest international level. Especially with Japan, this tends to make already previously sensitive relations deteriorate. China has territorial disputes with several neighbouring countries that are becoming more complicated by the fact that there is oil and gas on the bottom of the sea in the disputed area. Relations with Russia have been complicated. Since the 1990s they are on their way of being steadily improved, but they become strained, when Japan is given priority access to oil fields in Siberia. The sensitive relations with the U.S. tend to be impaired by China's ways of getting access to more secure supply of oil and gas. Chinese efforts to get a more attractive foreign policy profile is on the other hand alleviating but does not eliminate the potential of the energy issue to complicate. China's foreign and security policy relations. The European Union seems to be on its way to introduce energy questions as a field of common policy. This is a reason for Sweden to study the development. It is a matter of special interest that China has proposed an 'Energy Dialogue between Asia and Europe' about the resources and the Eurasian continent. The Chinese example illustrates the need for a Swedish energy security policy and plans for energy crisis preparedness

  12. Modeling urban expansion policy scenarios using an agent-based approach for Guangzhou Metropolitan Region of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangjin Tian

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Policy makers and the human decision processes of urban planning have an impact on urban expansion. The behaviors and decision modes of regional authority, real estate developer, resident, and farmer agents and their interactions can be simulated by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP method. The driving factors are regressed with urban dynamics instead of static land-use types. Agents' behaviors and decision modes have an impact on the urban dynamic pattern by adjusting parameter weights. We integrate an agent-based model (ABM with AHP to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Three policy scenarios for baseline development, rapid development, and green land protection have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Guangzhou metropolitan region. A future policy scenario analysis can help policy makers to understand the possible results. These individuals can adjust their policies and decisions according to their different objectives.

  13. Subjective Wellbeing Impacts of National and Subnational Fiscal Policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arthur Grimes

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available We study the association between fiscal policy and subjective wellbeing using fiscal data on 34 countries across 129 country-years, combined with over 170,000 people’s subjective wellbeing scores. While past research has found that ‘distortionary taxes’ (e.g. income taxes are associated with slow growth relative to ‘non-distortionary’ taxes (GST/VAT, we find that distortionary taxes are associated with higher levels of subjective wellbeing than non-distortionary taxes. This relationship holds when we control for macro-economic variables and country fixed effects. If this relationship is causal, it would offer an explanation as to why governments pursue these policies that harm economic growth. We find that richer people’s subjective wellbeing is less harmed by indirect taxes than people with lower incomes, while “unproductive expenditure” is associated with higher wellbeing for the middle class relative to others, possibly reflecting middle class capture. We see little evidence for differential effects of fiscal policy on people living in different sized settlements. Devolving a portion of expenditure to subnational government is associated with higher subjective wellbeing but devolving tax collection to subnational government is associated with monotonically lower subjective wellbeing.

  14. Evaluating the Relative Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Nigeria using the St. Louis Equation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Adebayo Ajayi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The controversy existing on the efficacy of monetary and fiscal policy to influence the economy is unending. This study evaluates the relative impact of monetary and fiscal policy in Nigeria from 1986 to 2014 using a modified St. Louis equation. Employing the Ordinary Least Squares estimation method, this study reveals that growth in money supply and export have a positive and significant effect on growth in output of the economy while growth in government expenditure has a negative and insignificant effect. This study provides evidence that monetary policy has a greater growth-stimulating effect on the economy than fiscal policy. It recommends that monetary policy rather than fiscal policy should be relied upon by the Nigerian government as an economic stabilisation tool.

  15. Coronary heart disease policy models: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Capewell Simon

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The prevention and treatment of coronary heart disease (CHD is complex. A variety of models have therefore been developed to try and explain past trends and predict future possibilities. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the strengths and limitations of existing CHD policy models. Methods A search strategy was developed, piloted and run in MEDLINE and EMBASE electronic databases, supplemented by manually searching reference lists of relevant articles and reviews. Two reviewers independently checked the papers for inclusion and appraisal. All CHD modelling studies were included which addressed a defined population and reported on one or more key outcomes (deaths prevented, life years gained, mortality, incidence, prevalence, disability or cost of treatment. Results In total, 75 articles describing 42 models were included; 12 (29% of the 42 models were micro-simulation, 8 (19% cell-based, and 8 (19% life table analyses, while 14 (33% used other modelling methods. Outcomes most commonly reported were cost-effectiveness (36%, numbers of deaths prevented (33%, life-years gained (23% or CHD incidence (23%. Among the 42 models, 29 (69% included one or more risk factors for primary prevention, while 8 (19% just considered CHD treatments. Only 5 (12% were comprehensive, considering both risk factors and treatments. The six best-developed models are summarised in this paper, all are considered in detail in the appendices. Conclusion Existing CHD policy models vary widely in their depth, breadth, quality, utility and versatility. Few models have been calibrated against observed data, replicated in different settings or adequately validated. Before being accepted as a policy aid, any CHD model should provide an explicit statement of its aims, assumptions, outputs, strengths and limitations.

  16. Palliative care policy analysis in Iran: A conceptual model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mojgan Ansari

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Palliative care programs are rapidly evolving for patients with life-threatening illnesses. Increased and earlier access for facilities is a subject of growing importance in health services, policy, and research. Aim: This study was conducted to explain stakeholders' perceptions of the factors affecting the design of such a palliative care system and its policy analysis. Methodology: Semi-structured in-depth interviews conducted following purposive sampling of the participants. Twenty-two participants were included in the study. The interviews were analyzed using qualitative-directed content analysis based on "policy analysis triangle" framework. Results: The findings showed the impact of four categories, namely context (political, social, and structural feasibility, content (target setting, process (attracting stakeholder participation, the standardization of care, and education management, and actors (the Ministry of Health and Medical Education, health-care providers, and volunteers in the analysis of the palliative care policies of Iran. Conclusion: In the past 6 years, attention to palliative care has increased significantly as a result of the National Cancer Research Network with the support of the Ministry of Health. The success of health system plan requires great attention to its aspects of social, political, and executive feasibility. Careful management by policymakers of different stakeholders is vital to ensure support for any national plan, but this is challenging to achieve.

  17. A Model of Climate Policy Using Board Game Mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Castronova

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a case study of how a board game can be modified to generate a serious game. We argue that board games are an interesting medium for serious games, especially when the goal is to teach players about particularly complex systems. In that case, the transparency of a board game makes it possible for players to “see the whole boards” – to see all of the various moving parts at work. That transparency also makes it very easy to modify board games. To demonstrate these claims, we present a modification to the board game CO2 that accurately models different policy options with regard to global warming. We show how a few major changes to the original game’s point systems, as well as removal of certain extraneous features, can significantly improve the game, adding an instructional value. The game allows players to experiment with several policy options, including carbon taxes, carbon emissions permit sales, and clean energy research support, and lets players see how these policies interact. We discuss ways that teachers, advocates, journalists, and others can the Climate Policy mod to more easily explain the incredibly complex interactions of power markets, carbon dioxide emissions, and public policy.

  18. Energy modelling platforms for policy and strategy support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dyner, I.

    2000-01-01

    The energy field has been dominated by 'hard' modelling approaches by researchers from engineering and economics discipline. The recent trend towards a more liberalised environment moves away from central planning to market-based resource allocation, leading to the creation and use of strategic tools, with much 'softer' specifications, in the 'system-thinking' tradition. This paper presents the use of system dynamics in a generalised way, to provide a platform for integrated energy analysis. Issues of modularity and policy evolution are important in the design of the modelling platform to facilitate its use, and reuse. Hence the concepts of a platform, rather than a model, has to be implemented in a coherent way if it is to provide sustained value for ongoing support to both government policy and corporate strategy. (author)

  19. The path to impact of operational research on tuberculosis control policies and practices in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ari Probandari

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Operational research is currently one of the pillars of the global strategy to control tuberculosis. Indonesia initiated capacity building for operational research on tuberculosis over the last decade. Although publication of the research in peer-reviewed journals is an important indicator for measuring the success of this endeavor, the influence of operational research on policy and practices is considered even more important. However, little is known about the process by which operational research influences tuberculosis control policy and practices. Objective: We aimed to investigate the influence of operational research on tuberculosis control policy and practice in Indonesia between 2004 and 2014. Design: Using a qualitative study design, we conducted in-depth interviews of 50 researchers and 30 policy makers/program managers and performed document reviews. Transcripts of these interviews were evaluated while applying content analysis. Results: Operational research contributed to tuberculosis control policy and practice improvements, including development of new policies, introduction of new practices, and reinforcement of current program policies and practices. However, most of these developments had limited sustainability. The path from the dissemination of research results and recommendations to policy and practice changes was long and complex. The skills, interests, and political power of researchers and policy makers, as well as health system response, could influence the process. Conclusions: Operational research contributed to improving tuberculosis control policy and practices. A systematic approach to improve the sustainability of the impact of operational research should be explored.

  20. The credit crunch : Impacts on the housing market and policy responses in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Priemus, H.

    2009-01-01

    This contribution deals with the impact of the credit crunch on the Dutch housing market and the policy responses of the Dutch government so far. Reinhart and Rogoff have presented an overview of credit crises after WW II: what are the general characteristics and impacts? Also in the Netherlands,

  1. Impact of California air quality control policies on the use and demand for natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyd, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses the impact of California's air quality control policies on the use of natural gas. In this paper the author would like to briefly review the regulatory structure for air pollution control in California, summarize the requirement of the California Clean Air Act of 1988, and discuss the impacts of our regulatory programs on the use and demand for natural gas

  2. Education Policy and "Friedmanomics": Free Market Ideology and Its Impact on School Reform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiala, Thomas J.; Owens, Deborah Duncan

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of neoliberal ideology, and in particular, the economic and social theories of Milton Friedman on education policy. The paper takes a critical theoretical approach in that ultimately the paper is an ideological critique of conservative thought and action that impacts twenty-first century education…

  3. Use and Impacts of Campbell Systematic Reviews on Policy, Practice, and Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, Brandy R.; Dell, Nathaniel A.

    2018-01-01

    Aim: This study examines use and impacts of systematic reviews produced by the Campbell Collaboration's Social Welfare Coordinating Group (SWCG) on practice, policy, and research. Methods: A mixed-method research design was used to examine impacts of 52 systematic reviews published by the SWCG. We conducted author surveys and retrieved multiple…

  4. The policy-relevancy of impact assessment tools: Evaluating nine years of European research funding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Podhora, A.; Helming, K.; Adenauer, L.; Heckelei, T.; Kautto, P.; Reidsma, P.; Rennings, K.; Turnpenny, J.; Jansen, J.M.L.

    2013-01-01

    Since 2002, the European Commission has employed the instrument of ex-ante impact assessments (IA) to help focus its policy-making process on implementing sustainable development. Scientific tools should play an essential role of providing the evidence base to assess the impacts of alternative

  5. Evaluation of the impact of environmental public policy measures on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the French residential sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charlier, Dorothée; Risch, Anna

    2012-01-01

    A cut in energy consumption by 2050 to reach 50 kWh pe /m 2 /year and reduce GHG emissions by 75% are important objectives of environmental policy in France. The residential sector represents a significant potential source of energy savings. In this paper, our main objective is to construct a simulation model and to evaluate the impact of environmental public policy measures. We model energy consumption and GHG emissions, the decision to invest in energy saving renovations and the dynamics of the housing stock. Particular attention is paid to household investment decisions regarding home renovation. To generate the dynamics and the structure of the housing stock through 2050, we introduce socioeconomic variables that alter the number of renovations and new constructions. This study has three major outputs. First, we estimate the energy consumption and GHG emissions of the residential sector in France through 2050. Second, we study the impact of environmental public policy measures. Lastly, we propose different means to reach the objectives. The results show that while current policies are effective, they are not sufficient to reach the objectives. - Highlights: ► We model the decision to invest in energy saving renovations and dynamics of the housing stock. ► We model and estimate the energy consumption and GHG emissions. ► We study the impact of current environmental public policy measures ► We simulate different public policies to reach the French objectives ► Results show that current policies are effective but not sufficient.

  6. Seeds of confusion : the impact of policies on seed systems

    OpenAIRE

    Louwaars, N.P.

    2007-01-01

    Seed is basic to crop production. Next to its importance in production, food security and rural development, seed is a key element in many debates about technology development and transfer, biodiversity, globalisation and equity. The sustainable availability of good quality seed is thus an important development issue. This study deals with the impact different types of regulation have on how farmers access seed.  I have analysed current regulatory frameworks in terms of their impact on differ...

  7. Social Impacts of the Asian Crisis: Policy Challenges and Lessons

    OpenAIRE

    Jong-Wha Lee; Changyong Rhee

    1999-01-01

    This paper documents the social impacts of the financial crisis in Asia. We provide a general overview of the cause and the evolution of the crisis and highlight the differences as well as the similarities among the Asian countries. In particular, the impacts of the crisis on unemployment, real wage, poverty, and income inequality are analyzed using the cross-country data set, which consists of all the countries that have received financial assistance from the IMF over the period from 1973 to...

  8. Impacts on the Common Agricultural Policy and on rural development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grassi, G.; Palz, W.

    1992-01-01

    In the 1980s the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) resulted in large surpluses of main agricultural products; dealing with these surpluses consumed large parts of the Commission's and Member States' budgets. To alleviate this problem, a proposal for alternative land use is presented here: large-scale exploitation of biomass for industrial and energy uses, at the level of 600 to 800 million tonnes of oil equivalent a year. The important benefits to arise from this activity will include: job creation in rural districts, solutions to environmental problems, and technologies applicable in developing countries. (author)

  9. Socioeconomic impact indicators relating to water and hydrological policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia Lorca, A.

    2009-01-01

    The work approaches one of the principal problematic ones in order the development of the arid, semiarid and sub humid dry regions, since it is the case of the land management and in I make concrete of that of hydrological management. For it, one presents an offer of design and construction of indicators, from the conceptual perspective of the sustainability, to evaluate the values corresponding to the socioeconomic productivity of the water, in order to motivate the public action in case of the territorial policies in general and sectorial especially. (Author) 4 refs.

  10. Climate impacts, climate policies, and the role of adaptation through the lens of water systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.

    2016-12-01

    Recognizing the critical role of water in human-Earth system interactions, most integrated assessment models are moving to incorporate water within their modeling frameworks and climate change impacts more broadly. However, none of the IA models used in generating the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) incorporated the potential feedbacks of water limitations on other modeled systems, meaning that these assessments did not consider the joint interactions between hydrologic and human systems simultaneously adapting to and mitigating climate change. Yet, hydrologic systems could impose severe limitations on both energy and land decisions. Also, previous efforts have been limited to taking information from IA and Earth system models and passing that information to global water management and hydrologic models with the implicit assumption that all unmet water demands are taken from non-renewable water resources, generally fossil groundwater. However, extracting and depleting water resources (e.g., aquifers) could have drastic impacts on both energy and land use systems and the ability to mitigate climate change. In this study, we use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), where interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land and water resources interact simultaneously in a dynamically evolving system, to investigate: 1) how water scarcity affects energy and land use decisions as well as mitigation policies, 2) the effects of climate change impacts on the food-energy-water nexus, 3) how these impacts evolve in the context of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) with specific details on water technologies, 4) the effects of different adaptation measures and their associate investment costs, and 5) the relative contributions of climate and human systems on water scarcity. We find that previous estimates of global water withdrawal projections are overestimated, as our simulations show that it is more economical in some basins to alter

  11. American Legal Realism: Research Programme and Policy Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frans L. Leeuw

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses two questions:1. Can Legal Realism be seen as a scientific research programme enabling growth of knowledge? To answer that question, the author uses Lakatos’s  work on the methodology of scientific research programmes as a frame of reference.2. What has been the role of American Legal Realism during the first part of the 20th century in helping to develop and implement the New Deal policy vis-à-vis its scientific work?After outlining some characteristics of American Legal Realism and Lakatos’s concept, the author studies LR from this perspective and concludes that LR can at the maximum be seen as a research programme of a very rudimentary nature with largely only a focus on procedures/methods. Despite this conclusion, LR has been important in stimulating questions in which social science research and law came together. Next, the professor-realist-relationship that helped President Roosevelt to have his New Deal developed and implemented is also discussed. A downside of this ‘professor-realist-advisor-partnership’ may have been that a LR scientific research programme has not been developed. Given the increased visibility of New Legal Realism, the paper finally stresses the relevance of working with scientific research programmes and the importance of being on the alert when linking research to (legal policies.

  12. Useful models for simulating policies to induce technological change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivers, Nic; Jaccard, Mark

    2006-01-01

    Conventional top-down and bottom-up energy-economy models have limitations that affect their usefulness to policy-makers. Efforts to develop hybrid models, that incorporate valuable aspects of these two frameworks, may be more useful by representing technologies in the energy-economy explicitly while also representing more realistically the way in which businesses and consumers choose between those technologies. This representation allows for the realistic simulation of a wide range of technology-specific regulations and fiscal incentives alongside economy-wide fiscal incentives and disincentives. These policies can be assessed based on the costs required to reach a goal in the medium term, as well as on the degree to which they induce technological change that affects costs over long time periods

  13. Business model elements impacting cloud computing adoption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bogataj, Kristina; Pucihar, Andreja; Sudzina, Frantisek

    The paper presents a proposed research framework for identification of business model elements impacting Cloud Computing Adoption. We provide a definition of main Cloud Computing characteristics, discuss previous findings on factors impacting Cloud Computing Adoption, and investigate technology...... adoption theories, such as Diffusion of Innovations, Technology Acceptance Model, Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology. Further on, at research model for identification of Cloud Computing Adoption factors from a business model perspective is presented. The following business model building...

  14. A Danish case. Portfolio evaluation and its impact on energy efficiency policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Togeby, M.; Dyhr-Mikkelsen, K. [Ea Energy Analyses, Frederiksholms Kanal 4, 1220 Copenhagen K (Denmark); Larsen, A.E. [Department of Society and Globalisation, Roskilde University, Universitetsvej 1, 4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Bach, P. [Danish Energy Agency, Amaliegade 44, 1256 Copenhagen K (Denmark)

    2012-01-15

    A political agreement from 2005 stated that an evaluation of the entire Danish energy efficiency policy portfolio must be carried out before the end of 2008, with the aim to assess the following: (1) Is the policy portfolio sufficient to meet the energy efficiency targets? (2) Do the policies enable the national goals to be met in a cost-effective manner? (3) Is the overall design of the policy portfolio appropriate? The evaluation gave recommendations on how to improve and develop the portfolio, mainly using cost-effectiveness as criteria. The evaluation was completed in December 2008, and this paper presents the main findings and the subsequent impact on Danish policy. A key lesson learned is the importance of including all energy efficiency policies in the evaluation. Examining the entire portfolio of policies (as opposed to only selected policies) gave way to findings that would otherwise not have been captured. With its broad perspective, the evaluation found that the policy instruments prioritised the commercial and industrial sectors less than the household and public sectors. The recommendations made by the authors contributed to the implementation of new taxes for the commercial and industrial sectors together with the reform of the Electricity Saving Trust to a Centre for Energy Savings charged with energy savings within all sectors, except transport - both which have been important steps towards a more cost-effective solution.

  15. Counterfactual Thinking and Impact Evaluation in Environmental Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraro, Paul J.

    2009-01-01

    Impact evaluations assess the degree to which changes in outcomes can be attributed to an intervention rather than to other factors. Such attribution requires knowing what outcomes would have looked like in the absence of the intervention. This counterfactual world can be inferred only indirectly through evaluation designs that control for…

  16. Environmental impacts of products: Policy relevant information and data challenges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tukker, A.; Eder, P.; Suh, S.

    2006-01-01

    The research and analysis presented in this special issue shows that the same limited number of consumption categories are consistently revealed to be responsible for the largest share of environmental impact: mobility (automobile and air transport), food (meat, poultry, fish, and dairy followed by

  17. Community perspectives on the impact of policy change on linking social capital in a rural community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talbot, Lyn; Walker, Rae

    2007-06-01

    Understanding what undermines or builds social capital is important when estimating the impact that changes in social capital have on people's lives. The aim of this paper is to illustrate how the consequences of neo-liberal policy initiatives have impacted on linking social capital in one small and vibrant rural community in Australia. Policy changes affecting all levels of government and various commercial agencies have undermined people's capability for a range of actions which bring personal and community-wide social and economic returns. Rationalisation and regionalisation of services and commercial agencies, including local government amalgamation, and increased workloads have undermined people's capabilities for community engagement. Policy outcomes are at odds with the stated policy agenda of building community capacity.

  18. Accounting for the distributional impacts of policy in the green accounts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horan, R.D.; Hrubovcak, J.; Shortle, J.S.; Bulte, E.H.

    2000-01-01

    Green income accounting models are designed to appropriately value changes in a country's natural resource (natural capital) base. However, green NNP is useful as a guide for domestic and international policy only to the extent that it accurately reflects the economic goals and policy options of

  19. TENDENCIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF BUDGET REVENUES UNDER THE IMPACT OF TAX POLICY OF ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DOBROTĂ GABRIELA

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Currently, the need to ensure sustainable development has become a central point of debates and of the economic policies. Obviously, the influence of the level of financial resources mobilized at the state level is crucial, reason for it is necessary to promote a sustainable fiscal policy. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of fiscal policy measures on budget revenues, in terms of volume and their structure in Romania. Empirical researchs realised, reflected a longitudinal study that targeted budget income trends between 2006-2015, both in terms of total volume and in terms of revenues for each category of taxation. The results of this study demonstrate the use of a pro-cyclical fiscal policy, with negative effects in terms of the impact on the budget deficit and a poor correlation with other components of macroeconomic policy.

  20. Evidence-Based Policy Making and the Implementation of Regulatory Impact Assessment in Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zdravko Petak

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This study is dealing with the application of evidence-based policy-making in Croatian public administration and the general role of applied policy analysis in the Croatian system of governance. Methodology: This development is illustrated by the peculiarities of introducing regulatory impact assessment (RIA tools in Croatian public administrative structures. Findings: The author is pointing out various limitations in the usage of policy analysis tools in formulating, implementing and evaluating public policies in Croatia. The crucial role of RIA for enhancing executive capacity of governance structures is particularly stressed in the study. The final part of the article is devoted to the prospects of further development of RIA as an applied policy analysis tool within the Croatian system of governance.

  1. Health, alcohol and EU law: understanding the impact of European single market law on alcohol policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumberg, Ben; Anderson, Peter

    2008-08-01

    Many professionals in the alcohol field see the role of the the European Court of Justice (ECJ) as negative for health. This review examines ECJ and European Free Trade Association (EFTA) case law in the context of two broader debates: firstly the extension of European Union (EU) law into alcohol policy (the 'juridification' of alcohol policy), and secondly the extent to which alcohol policy is an example of the dominance of 'negative integration' (the removal of trade-distorting policy) over 'positive integration' (the creation of European alcohol policies). A comprehensive review of all ECJ/EFTA Court cases on alcohol, with interpretation aided by a secondary review on alcohol and EU law and the broader health and trade field. From looking at taxation, minimum pricing, advertising and monopoly policies, the extension of the scope of the these courts over alcohol policy is unquestionable. However, the ECJ and EFTA Court have been prepared to prioritize health over trade concerns when considering alcohol policies, providing certain conditions have been met. While a partial juridification of alcohol policy has led to the negative integration of alcohol policies, this effect is not as strong as sometimes thought; EU law is more health friendly than it is perceived to be, and its impact on levels of alcohol-related harm appears low. Nevertheless, lessons emerge for policymakers concerned about the legality of alcohol policies under EU law. More generally, those concerned with alcohol and health should pay close attention to developments in EU law given their importance for public health policy on alcohol.

  2. The impact of post-9/11 visa policies on travel to the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Neiman, Brent; Swagel, Phillip

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of post-9/11 changes in visa and security policy on business and leisure travel to the United States. American businesses, tourism industry representatives, and politicians pointed to changes in visa policies as being responsible for a sharp decline in short-term visitors following the September 11 attacks. Several foreign governments likewise complained that visa requirements and other security measures were making it difficult for their citizens to travel t...

  3. Regional Investment Policy Under The Impact Of Budget Limitations And Economic Sanctions

    OpenAIRE

    Avramenko, Yelena S.; Vlasov, Semyon V.; Lukyanov, Sergey A.; Temkina, Irina M.

    2018-01-01

    This article presents the results of research on the impact which budget limitations and economic sanctions have had on regional investment policy External sanctions and sluggish economic growth have affected the social and economic development of the region. Relying on the results of comparative and statistical analysis, the article demonstrates the need for altering the focus of current investment policy from quantitative growth to qualitative enhancement. The article analyses a new trend i...

  4. The Near-Term Impacts of Carbon Mitigation Policies on Manufacturing Industries

    OpenAIRE

    Morgenstern, Richard; Shih, Jhih-Shyang; Ho, Mun; Zhang, Xuehua

    2002-01-01

    Who will pay for new policies to reduce carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions in the United States? This paper considers a slice of the question by examining the near-term impact on domestic manufacturing industries of both upstream (economy-wide) and downstream (electric power industry only) carbon mitigation policies. Detailed Census data on the electricity use of four-digit manufacturing industries is combined with input-output information on interindustry purchases to paint a ...

  5. The Impact of Future Carbon Mitigation Policies and Climate on Regional Air Qaulity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turnock, Steven; O'Connor, Fiona; Smith, Steven

    2017-04-01

    Air pollutants (ozone and particulate matter) can affect both climate and air quality. Future reductions in the anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants and their precursors will improve air quality. However, it is uncertain the extent to which the choice of carbon mitigation policies could influence future regional air quality via changes to the co-emission of air pollutants from carbon sources. In addition, it is still uncertain how future changes in climate could influence air pollutants and future air quality may change through climate mitigation itself. Two consistent future scenarios, developed by the same integrated assessment model, are used within this study: one is a reference scenario of future economic development and population growth, whilst the other (RCP4.5) assumes the same development but applies mitigation measures to reduce carbon dioxide concentrations and stabilise anthropogenic radiative forcing at 4.5 W m-2. Here we have applied these two emission scenarios to a coupled composition-climate model (HadGEM3-UKCA) to ascertain the impact of such carbon mitigation measures on future air quality, both globally and over specific regions, such as Europe and Asia. A comparison of the emission scenarios shows that the implementation of carbon mitigation measures reduces global air pollutant emissions by between 15-30% and by larger amounts over other regions. Additional simulations have also been undertaken to attribute the future air quality changes to either reductions in emissions or changes in climate. An evaluation of the model using air quality observations has also been undertaken for the year 2000. This study demonstrates that carbon mitigation policies to mitigate climate change have added co-benefits for global and regional air quality.

  6. The Health Impacts of Energy Policy Pathways in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia: A Total Exposure Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, L. A.; Damdinsuren, Y.; Olkhanud, P. B.; Smith, K. R.; Turner, J. R.; Edwards, R.; Odsuren, M.; Ochir, C.

    2015-12-01

    Ulaanbaatar is home to nearly half of Mongolia's 2.8 million residents. The city's rapid growth, frigid winters, valley topography, and reliance on coal-fired stoves have led to some of the worst winter pollution levels in the world. To better understand this issue, we modeled integrated PM2.5exposures and related health impacts for various city-wide heating policies through 2024. This assessment is one of the first to employ a total exposure approach and results of the 2014 Comparative Risk Assessments of the Global Burden of Disease Project (CRA/GBD) in a policy-relevant energy study. Emissions related to heating, traffic, and power generation were considered under Business as Usual, Moderate Improvement, and Max Improvement scenarios. Calibrated outdoor models were combined with indoor models, local infiltration and time activity estimates, and demographic projections to estimate PM2.5exposures in 2014 and 2024. Indoor exposures were assigned by heating type, home type, and smoking status; outdoor exposures were assigned through geocoding. Population average annual exposures were calculated and applied to local disease rates and integrated exposure-response curves (2014 CRA/GBD) to arrive at annual projections of premature deaths and DALYs. We estimate 2014 annual average exposures at 68 μg/m3, dictated almost exclusively by indoor winter exposures. Under current trends, annual exposures increase 10% to 75 μg/m3 in 2024. This is in stark contrast to the moderate and max improvement scenarios, which lead to 2024 annual exposures that are 31%, and 68% lower, respectively. Under the Moderate scenario, 2024 per capita annual DALY and death burdens drop 26% and 22%, respectively, from 2014 levels. Under the Max scenario, 2024 per capita annual DALY and death burdens drop 71% and 66%, respectively, from 2014. SHS becomes a major contributor as emissions from other sectors decrease. Reductions are dominated by cardiovascular and lower respiratory diseases in children.

  7. Long-Term Socioeconomic Impact of Child Abuse and Neglect: Implications for Public Policy. Policy Matters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zielinski, David S.

    2005-01-01

    Child abuse and neglect greatly influence victims' long-term wellbeing. Until recently, however, little was known about how such experiences affect victims' later socioeconomic status. Current research has examined the long-term impact of child abuse and neglect on adult employment, income, and reliance on public assistance, as well as the reasons…

  8. Impact, regulation and health policy implications of physician migration in OECD countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simoens Steven

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the face of rising demand for medical services due to ageing populations, physician migration flows are increasingly affecting the supply of physicians in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and development (OECD countries. This paper offers an integrated perspective on the impact of physician migration on home and host countries and discusses international regulation and policy approaches governing physician migration. Methods Information about migration flows, international regulation and policies governing physician migration were derived from two questionnaires sent to OECD countries, a secondary analysis of EUROSTAT Labour Force Surveys, a literature review and official policy documents of OECD countries. Results OECD countries increasingly perceive immigration of foreign physicians as a way of sustaining their physician workforce. As a result, countries have entered into international agreements regulating physician migration, although their success has been limited due to the imposition of licensing requirements and the protection of vested interests by domestic physicians. OECD countries have therefore adopted specific policies designed to stimulate the immigration of foreign physicians, whilst minimising its negative impact on the home country. Measures promoting immigration have included international recruitment campaigns, less strict immigration requirements and arrangements that foster shared learning between health care systems. Policies restricting the societal costs of physician emigration from developing countries such as good practice guidelines and taxes on host countries have not yet produced their expected effect or in some cases have not been established at all. Conclusions Although OECD countries generally favour long-term policies of national self-sufficiency to sustain their physician workforce, such policies usually co-exist with short-term or medium-term policies to attract foreign physicians

  9. Cumulative Environmental Impacts: Science and Policy to Protect Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Gina M; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Zeise, Lauren; Faust, John B

    2016-01-01

    Many communities are located near multiple sources of pollution, including current and former industrial sites, major roadways, and agricultural operations. Populations in such locations are predominantly low-income, with a large percentage of minorities and non-English speakers. These communities face challenges that can affect the health of their residents, including limited access to health care, a shortage of grocery stores, poor housing quality, and a lack of parks and open spaces. Environmental exposures may interact with social stressors, thereby worsening health outcomes. Age, genetic characteristics, and preexisting health conditions increase the risk of adverse health effects from exposure to pollutants. There are existing approaches for characterizing cumulative exposures, cumulative risks, and cumulative health impacts. Although such approaches have merit, they also have significant constraints. New developments in exposure monitoring, mapping, toxicology, and epidemiology, especially when informed by community participation, have the potential to advance the science on cumulative impacts and to improve decision making.

  10. The impact of consumer returns policies on consignment contracts with inventory control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, W.; Li, Y.; Govindan, Kannan

    2014-01-01

    , and then the retailer sets her retail price for selling the product. The vendor gets paid based on net sold units and salvages unsold units as well as returned items in a secondary market. Under the framework, we study and compare two different consignment arrangements: the retailer/vendor manages consignment inventory...... (RMCI/VMCI) programs. To study the impact of return policy, we discuss a consignment contract without return policy as a benchmark. We show that whether or not the vendor offers a return policy, it is always beneficial for the channel to delegate the inventory decision to the vendor. We find...

  11. Obesity prevention advocacy in Australia: an analysis of policy impact on autonomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haynes, Emily; Hughes, Roger; Reidlinger, Dianne P

    2017-06-01

    To explore obesity policy options recommended by stakeholders and identify their impact on individual autotomy. Qualitative and quantitative methods were used. A content analysis of submissions to the Australian Government's Inquiry into Obesity was conducted. Each recommendation was categorised by its impact on autonomy, according to existing frameworks. Chi-square test for independence was used to explore the association between autonomy and stakeholder support defined as frequency of recommendation. The extent of support for a policy option was significantly associated with impact on autonomy (pautonomy were least frequently recommended in every setting; but more likely in schools (27%) than other settings (autonomy were most widely recommended (46%). Stakeholders advocated policy options that enhance individual autonomy to a greater extent than those that diminish autonomy. Implications for public health: Targeting obesity policy options that enhance rather than diminish autonomy may be more politically acceptable across most settings, with the exception of schools where more restrictive policy options are appropriate. Re-framing options accordingly may improve leadership by government in obesity policy. © 2017 The Authors.

  12. A Critical Discourse Analysis of Provincial Policies Impacting Shelter Service Delivery to Women Exposed to Violence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burnett, Camille; Ford-Gilboe, Marilyn; Berman, Helene; Ward-Griffin, Cathy; Wathen, Nadine

    2015-01-01

    Shelters for abused women function within a broad context that includes intersecting social structures, policies, and resources, which may constrain and limit the options available to abused women and tacitly reinforce the cycle of abuse. This feminist, qualitative study combined in-depth interviews and focus groups conducted with 37 staff and four executive directors from four shelters in Ontario, Canada, along with a critical discourse analysis of salient policy texts. Together, the interviews and critical discourse analysis formed an integrated analysis of the dialectic between policy as written and enacted. The study findings illuminate the complexity of the system and its impact on women, shelters, and the community and highlight how specific types of social policies and various social system subsystems and structures, and system configuration, shape the day to day reality of shelter service delivery and impact outcomes for abused women and their children. Collectively, these findings offer direction regarding where these policies could be improved and provide a basis for shelters, policy makers, advocates, and the community to strengthen current services and policies, potentially enhancing outcomes for women. © The Author(s) 2015.

  13. Staff policy regarding mitigation of school enrollment impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    Testimony in recent geothermal power plant siting cases in the Geysers-Calistoga KGRA has established that nine local school districts have reached or exceeded the design which induces immigration into these impacted districts will aggravate the situation. Several power plant applicants have agreed to provide annual mitigation payments to local school districts which can document adverse student enrollment impacts. The Lake County agreements with Occidental Geothermal, Inc. and the California Department of Water Resources require mitigation fees for students having at least one parent who either works directly with the power plant or works indirectly with the geothermal-service industry. An adjustment is made each year so that the applicant only pays a one-time fee for each student. An annual student survey is used to help identify students qualifying for mitigation payments. This paper presents an algorithms which CEC staff will propose to be used in the event that a power plant applicant and an impacted school district are unable to negotiate a mitigation agreement. The algorithm provides a basis for calculating an annual mitigation payment which would be used to help construct new permanent facilities and to purchase additional school buses.

  14. On the Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Oil Prices: An Asymmetry Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Previous research has assessed the impact of policy uncertainty on a few macro variables. In this paper, we consider its impact on oil prices. Oil prices are usually determined in global markets by the law of demand and supply. Our concern in this paper is to determine which country’s policy uncertainty measure has an impact on oil prices. Using both the linear and the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL methods, we find that while policy uncertainty measures of Canada, China, Europe, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the U.S. have short-run effects, short-run effects last into the long-run asymmetric effects only in the case of China. This may reflect the importance and recent surge in China’s engagement in world trade.

  15. Impact of monetary policy changes on the Chinese monetary and stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Yong; Luo, Yong; Xiong, Jie; Zhao, Fei; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

    2013-10-01

    The impact of monetary policy changes on the monetary market and stock market in China is investigated in this study. The changes of two major monetary policies, the interest rate and required reserve ratio, are analyzed in a study period covering seven years on the interbank monetary market and Shanghai stock market. We find that the monetary market is related to the macro economy trend and we also find that the monetary change surprises both of lowering and raising bring significant impacts to the two markets and the two markets respond to the changes differently. The results suggest that the impact of fluctuations is much larger for raising policy changes than lowering changes in the monetary market on policy announcing and effective dates. This is consistent with the “sign effect”, i.e. bad news brings a greater impact than good news. By studying the event window of each policy change, we also find that the “sign effect” still exists before and after each change in the monetary market. A relatively larger fluctuation is observed before the event date, which indicates that the monetary market might have a certain ability to predict a potential monetary change, while it is kept secret by the central bank before official announcement. In the stock market, we investigate how the returns and spreads of the Shanghai stock market index respond to the monetary changes. Evidences suggest the stock market is influenced but in a different way than the monetary market. The climbing of returns after the event dates for the lowering policy agrees with the theory that lowering changes can provide a monetary supply to boost the market and drive the stock returns higher but with a delay of 2 to 3 trading days on average. While in the bear market, the lowering policy brings larger volatility to the market on average than the raising ones. These empirical findings are useful for policymakers to understand how monetary policy changes impact the monetary and stock markets

  16. Leaning against the Wind Policies on Vietnam’s Economy with DSGE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phuc Huynh

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The global financial crisis of 2007–2008 had a negative impact on many countries, including Vietnam. Many policies have been applied to stabilize the macro-economic indicators. However, most of them are based on old qualitative models, which do not help policy makers understand deeply how each one affects the economy. In this paper, we investigate a quantitative macro-economic approach and use leaning against the wind policies with the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (DSGE to find a better way to understand how policies stabilize the Vietnamese economy. Based on the framework of Gerali et al., we calibrate the hyper-parameter for Vietnam financial data and do the comparison between the standard Taylor rule and the cases in which we add asset price and credit elements. The results show that the credit-augmented Taylor rule is better than the asset-price-augmented one under the technology shock and contrary to the cost-push shock. Moreover, the extended simulation result shows that combining both asset-price and credit rules on the model is not useful for Vietnam’s economy in both types of shock.

  17. Can policy ameliorate socioeconomic inequities in obesity and obesity-related behaviours? A systematic review of the impact of universal policies on adults and children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olstad, D L; Teychenne, M; Minaker, L M; Taber, D R; Raine, K D; Nykiforuk, C I J; Ball, K

    2016-12-01

    This systematic review examined the impact of universal policies on socioeconomic inequities in obesity, dietary and physical activity behaviours among adults and children. PRISMA-Equity guidelines were followed. Database searches spanned from 2004 to August 2015. Eligible studies assessed the impact of universal policies on anthropometric, dietary or physical activity-related outcomes in adults or children according to socioeconomic position. Thirty-six studies were included. Policies were classified as agentic, agento-structural or structural, and their impact on inequities was rated as positive, neutral, negative or mixed according to the dominant associations observed. Most policies had neutral impacts on obesity-related inequities regardless of whether they were agentic (60% neutral), agento-structural (68% neutral) or structural (67% neutral). The proportion of positive impacts was similar across policy types (10% agentic, 18% agento-structural and 11% structural), with some differences for negative impacts (30% agentic, 14% agento-structural and 22% structural). The majority of associations remained neutral when stratified by participant population, implementation level and socioeconomic position measures and by anthropometric and behavioural outcomes. Fiscal measures had consistently neutral or positive impacts on inequities. Findings suggest an important role for policy in addressing obesity in an equitable manner and strengthen the case for implementing a broad complement of policies spanning the agency-structure continuum. © 2016 World Obesity Federation.

  18. Intelligent simulation of aquatic environment economic policy coupled ABM and SD models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huihui; Zhang, Jiarui; Zeng, Weihua

    2018-03-15

    Rapid urbanization and population growth have resulted in serious water shortage and pollution of the aquatic environment, which are important reasons for the complex increase in environmental deterioration in the region. This study examines the environmental consequences and economic impacts of water resource shortages under variant economic policies; however, this requires complex models that jointly consider variant agents and sectors within a systems perspective. Thus, we propose a complex system model that couples multi-agent based models (ABM) and system dynamics (SD) models to simulate the impact of alternative economic policies on water use and pricing. Moreover, this model took the constraint of the local water resources carrying capacity into consideration. Results show that to achieve the 13th Five Year Plan targets in Dianchi, water prices for local residents and industries should rise to 3.23 and 4.99 CNY/m 3 , respectively. The corresponding sewage treatment fees for residents and industries should rise to 1.50 and 2.25 CNY/m 3 , respectively, assuming comprehensive adjustment of industrial structure and policy. At the same time, the local government should exercise fine-scale economic policy combined with emission fees assessed for those exceeding a standard, and collect fines imposed as punishment for enterprises that exceed emission standards. When fines reach 500,000 CNY, the total number of enterprises that exceed emission standards in the basin can be controlled within 1%. Moreover, it is suggested that the volume of water diversion in Dianchi should be appropriately reduced to 3.06×10 8 m 3 . The reduced expense of water diversion should provide funds to use for the construction of recycled water facilities. Then the local rise in the rate of use of recycled water should reach 33%, and 1.4 CNY/m 3 for the price of recycled water could be provided to ensure the sustainable utilization of local water resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B

  19. Policy impact of the Indonesian Central Bank certificate related on loan interest rate to the demand growth of property

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirjodirdjo, B.; Asjari, H. Y.

    2018-04-01

    The Indonesian economic indicators shown a positive progress in the last three years, Foreign exchange reserves position of the end of March 2017 stood at US 121.8 billion higher than the position of the end of 2015 amounted to US 105.9 billion of the end of 2015. This reserve would ensure the resilience and maintaining sustainable Indonesian economic growth in the future. Although Indonesia’s foreign exchange is better, the structure of expenditure in the country is still less than ideal due the proportion of spending of consumer goods is far greater than the capital goods and tend to be unproductive spending. This needs to be regulated so that in the long term does not cause balance of payments deficit. Therefore, Indonesian Central Bank took a policy to raise interest rates for retail banks from 6% to 7.25% per annum gradually up to present. Policies relating to the interest rates on loans are intended to reduce the proportion of debt financing of consumer goods, however, these policies have implications to various economic sectors and one of those is property sector. A lot of research has been conducted related the impact of loan interest to the property sector but most of it is still in partial related to the ability the people to buy. However, this research has tried to see the implication of the macro Economic Policy of Indonesian Central Bank to the property sector as a systemic problem. This paper is going to present the study on the effects of these policies on the property sector, especially residence house. To obtain a comprehensive analysis and capture the relationship between interest rate policies and their impacts to the property sector, in this study the model developed and simulated using system dynamic methodology as an approach. Various scenarios are applied to the model to get an accurate information about how and when the effectiveness of the policy related to the property sector can be enforced. The result of this study can be delivered to

  20. Equity impact of interventions and policies to reduce smoking in youth: systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Tamara; Platt, Stephen; Amos, Amanda

    2014-11-01

    A systematic review to assess the equity impact of interventions/policies on youth smoking. Biosis, Cinahl, Cochrane Library, Conference Proceedings Citation Index, Embase, Eric, Medline, Psycinfo, Science Citation Index Expanded, Social Sciences Citation Index and tobacco control experts. Published January 1995 to October 2013. Primary studies of interventions/policies reporting smoking-related outcomes in youth (11-25 years) of lower compared to higher socioeconomic status (SES). References were screened and independently checked. Studies were quality assessed; characteristics and outcomes were extracted. A narrative synthesis by intervention/policy type. Equity impact was assessed as: positive (reduced inequity), neutral (no difference by SES), negative (increased inequity), mixed (equity impact varied) or unclear.Thirty-eight studies of 40 interventions/policies were included: smokefree (12); price/tax (7); mass media campaigns (1); advertising controls (4); access controls (5); school-based programmes (5); multiple policies (3), individual-level cessation support (2), individual-level support for smokefree homes (1). The distribution of equity effects was: 7 positive, 16 neutral, 12 negative, 4 mixed, 1 unclear. All 7 positive equity studies were US-based: price/tax (4), age-of-sales laws (2) and text-messaging cessation support (1). A British school-based intervention (A Stop Smoking in Schools Trial (ASSIST)) showed mixed equity effects (neutral and positive). Most neutral equity studies benefited all SES groups. Very few studies have assessed the equity impact of tobacco control interventions/policies on young people. Price/tax increases had the most consistent positive equity impact. There is a need to strengthen the evidence base for the equity impact of youth tobacco control interventions. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  1. MODELING MONETARY POLICY RULES IN THE MENACOUNTRIES: ISSUES AND EVIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamad Husam Helmi

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper estimates the monetary policy reaction function for two sets of MENAcountries: The inflation target countries, (Turkeyand Israel and the exchange ratetarget countries, (Jordan and Morocco. We motivateour empirical analysis byanalyzing a simple Taylor rule. This model looks atthe effects of inflation andoutput on setting the interest rate by the centralbank. Furthermore, we extendedour model by adding the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate using similarmodel used by Clarida et al (1998 with using GMM estimator.Findings of this study yield some interesting results,all the central banks in thesample uses interest rate smoothing in managing their monetary policy. Inaddition, The Central bank in Turkey, Israel and Morocco focuses on achievinglow level of inflation. On the other hand, the Monetary Authority in Jordan caresabout stabilizing the output gap. Estimating the extended Taylor rule suggests thehighly significant effect of foreign interest rateon setting the interest rate inTurkey. Taken all together, the results lend support to the importance of followinga rule rather than discretionary in reducing the inflation rate and crediblemonetary policy. In addition, the simple Taylor rule can be applied on MENAcountries but it requires some modification such asadding the exchange rate andthe foreign interest rate.

  2. Impact of future energy policy on water resources in Kazakhstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivotti, Pedro; Karatayev, Marat; Sobral Mourão, Zenaida; Shah, Nilay; Clarke, Michèle; Konadu, D. Dennis

    2017-04-01

    As part of its commitment to become one of the top-30 developed countries in the world, Kazakhstan set out an ambitious target of increasing the share of renewables and alternative sources of energy in its power generation mix to 50% by 2050. This vision greatly contrasts with the current situation, with coal and natural gas power plants producing around 90% of total electricity in 2016. While this transition provides a unique opportunity to improve the sustainability of the national energy system, major natural resources challenges currently faced in the country should be taken into account. Particularly in the case of water resources management, the current system is characterised by significant losses, heavy reliance on irrigation for the agricultural sector, unevenly distributed surface water, vulnerability to climate change and variations in transboundary inflows, amongst other issues. In this context, this study aims to investigate the future availability of water resources to support food production and the transition to a new energy system. Given the challenges mentioned above, tackling this question requires an integrated analysis of the water-energy-food systems in Kazakhstan. This is done in three stages: (1) characterising the water supply and demand in the country; (2) establishing the linkages between water resources and activities in the power production and agricultural sectors; and (3) identifying potential conflicts at the nexus between water, energy and food, taking into account future energy policy scenarios, trends for food production and water resource use.

  3. Modeling expectations in agent-based models: an application to central bank's communication and monetary policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salle, I.L.

    2015-01-01

    Expectations play a major role in macroeconomic dynamics, especially regarding the conduct of monetary policy. Yet, modeling the interplay between communication, expectations and aggregate outcomes remains a challenging task, mainly because this requires deviation from the paradigm of rational

  4. Impact of future climate policy scenarios on air quality and aerosol-cloud interactions using an advanced version of CESM/CAM5: Part I. model evaluation for the current decadal simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; He, Jian; Zhang, Yang

    2017-03-01

    A version of the Community Earth System Model modified at the North Carolina State University (CESM-NCSU) is used to simulate the current and future atmosphere following the representative concentration partway scenarios for stabilization of radiative forcing at 4.5 W m-2 (RCP4.5) and radiative forcing of 8.5 W m-2 (RCP8.5). Part I describes the results from a comprehensive evaluation of current decadal simulations. Radiation and most meteorological variables are well simulated in CESM-NCSU. Cloud parameters are not as well simulated due in part to the tuning of model radiation and general biases in cloud variables common to all global chemistry-climate models. The concentrations of most inorganic aerosol species (i.e., SO42-, NH4+, and NO3-) are well simulated with normalized mean biases (NMBs) typically less than 20%. However, some notable exceptions are European NH4+, which is overpredicted by 33.0-42.2% due to high NH3 emissions and irreversible coarse mode condensation, and Cl-, that is negatively impacted by errors in emissions driven by wind speed and overpredicted HNO3. Carbonaceous aerosols are largely underpredicted following the RCP scenarios due to low emissions of black carbon, organic carbon, and anthropogenic volatile compounds in the RCP inventory and efficient wet removal. This results in underpredictions of PM2.5 and PM10 by 6.4-55.7%. The column mass abundances are reasonably well simulated. Larger biases occur in surface mixing ratios of trace gases in CESM-NCSU, likely due to numerical diffusion from the coarse grid spacing of the CESM-NCSU simulations or errors in the magnitudes and vertical structure of emissions. This is especially true for SO2 and NO2. The mixing ratio of O3 is overpredicted by 38.9-76.0% due to the limitations in the O3 deposition scheme used in CESM and insufficient titration resulted from large underpredictions in NO2. Despite these limitations, CESM-NCSU reproduces reasonably well the current atmosphere in terms of

  5. Prevention, Policies and Priorities to Reduce the Impact of Malaria on US Military Forces

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-01

    Although  quinine  is the currently approved medication for severe  malaria  in much of the world,  resistance to  quinine  is increasing and has...Prevention, Policies and Priorities to Reduce the Impact of Malaria on US Military Forces August 2011 Silver Spring, MD PREPARED BY: CDR...2011 to 25-08-2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Prevention, Policies and Priorities to Reduce the Impact of Malaria on US Military Forces 5a. CONTRACT

  6. Extent of alcohol prohibition in civil policy in Muslim majority countries: the impact of globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Ansari, Basma; Thow, Anne-Marie; Day, Carolyn A; Conigrave, Katherine M

    2016-10-01

    Many policies have been introduced to reduce alcohol harm in different countries. However, Muslim majority countries (MMCs), where the major religion (Islam) prohibits alcohol consumption, have less well-developed civil alcohol policies. Overall, MMCs have low prevalence of alcohol consumption, although recently most MMCs have been undergoing transition, which has sometimes increased pressure for alcohol availability and impacted on social practices, alcohol policies and broader public health. Globalization, the influence of the global alcohol industry, recent governmental transition or political instability and the presence of immigrants from non-Muslim countries can all affect civil alcohol policy. In this context, consumption overall has increased compared with two decades ago. This paper presents an overview of current civil alcohol policy, with regard to the presence or absence of alcohol prohibition, and provides an insight into the legal availability of alcohol in MMCs and the challenges facing policymakers. English, Arabic and Persian language sources were examined, using PubMed, government websites for each country and the World Health Organization (WHO). Some of the challenges MMCs may face in developing alcohol policies are explored, including the need to interact with the global economy and the potential influence of the alcohol industry. Muslim majority countries have adopted a range of civil alcohol policies in recent decades. There is a pressing need for better data and to support Muslim majority countries in alcohol policy development. Lessons from Muslim majority countries can help to inform other parts of the world. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  7. The impact of a federal cigarette minimum pack price policy on cigarette use in the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doogan, Nathan J; Wewers, Mary Ellen; Berman, Micah

    2018-03-01

    Increasing cigarette prices reduce cigarette use. The US Food and Drug Administration has the authority to regulate the sale and promotion-and therefore the price-of tobacco products. To examine the potential effect of federal minimum price regulation on the sales of cigarettes in the USA. We used yearly state-level data from the Tax Burden on Tobacco and other sources to model per capita cigarette sales as a function of price. We used the fitted model to compare the status quo sales with counterfactual scenarios in which a federal minimum price was set. The minimum price scenarios ranged from $0 to $12. The estimated price effect in our model was comparable with that found in the literature. Our counterfactual analyses suggested that the impact of a minimum price requirement could range from a minimal effect at the $4 level to a reduction of 5.7 billion packs sold per year and 10 million smokers at the $10 level. A federal minimum price policy has the potential to greatly benefit tobacco control and public health by uniformly increasing the price of cigarettes and by eliminating many price-reducing strategies currently available to both sellers and consumers. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  8. Impact of Minimum Driveway Spacing Policies on Safety Performance: An Integrated Traffic Micro-Simulation and Automated Conflict Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chu C. Minh

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available A key strategy for successful access management is the adoption of driveway spacing guidelines that consider both safety and operations. The goal is to provide sufficient distance from one driveway to the next so that drivers can perceive and react to the conditions at each potential conflict point in succession. State DOTs across the country have adopted different driveway spacing standards that vary according to the access class and characteristics of the adjacent roadway, such as type of roadway, posted speed limit, and traffic volume. Utilizing the VISSIM microscopic traffic simulation tool and FHWA's Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM, this research examined safety implications of four different driveway spacing policies representing 13 states. The analysis involved calibrating the VISSIM model for an arterial roadway corridor in West Columbia, SC, and then using the calibrated model to simulate various operational changes to the corridor, including speed limits, traffic volumes, and the associated minimum driveway spacing criteria for the four different policies. SSAM was used to analyze vehicle trajectories derived from VISSIM to determine the number of conflict points. Experimental results indicate that posted speed limit and traffic volume are the primary impact factors for driveway safety, and thus, these parameters should be considered in establishing minimum driveway spacing. Findings from this study indicate that there are significant differences in safety impacts between the different driveway spacing policies adopted by various state DOTs.

  9. Termination of the leprosy isolation policy in the US and Japan : Science, policy changes, and the garbage can model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Hajime; Frantz, Janet E

    2005-01-01

    Background In both the US and Japan, the patient isolation policy for leprosy /Hansen's disease (HD) was preserved along with the isolation facilities, long after it had been proven to be scientifically unnecessary. This delayed policy termination caused a deprivation of civil liberties of the involuntarily confined patients, the fostering of social stigmas attached to the disease, and an inefficient use of health resources. This article seeks to elucidate the political process which hindered timely policy changes congruent with scientific advances. Methods Examination of historical materials, supplemented by personal interviews. The role that science played in the process of policy making was scrutinized with particular reference to the Garbage Can model. Results From the vantage of history, science remained instrumental in all period in the sense that it was not the primary objective for which policy change was discussed or intended, nor was it the principal driving force for policy change. When the argument arose, scientific arguments were employed to justify the patient isolation policy. However, in the early post-WWII period, issues were foregrounded and agendas were set as the inadvertent result of administrative reforms. Subsequently, scientific developments were more or less ignored due to concern about adverse policy outcomes. Finally, in the 1980s and 1990s, scientific arguments were used instrumentally to argue against isolation and for the termination of residential care. Conclusion Contrary to public expectations, health policy is not always rational and scientifically justified. In the process of policy making, the role of science can be limited and instrumental. Policy change may require the opening of policy windows, as a result of convergence of the problem, policy, and political streams, by effective exercise of leadership. Scientists and policymakers should be attentive enough to the political context of policies. PMID:15771781

  10. Termination of the leprosy isolation policy in the US and Japan : Science, policy changes, and the garbage can model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frantz Janet E

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In both the US and Japan, the patient isolation policy for leprosy /Hansen's disease (HD was preserved along with the isolation facilities, long after it had been proven to be scientifically unnecessary. This delayed policy termination caused a deprivation of civil liberties of the involuntarily confined patients, the fostering of social stigmas attached to the disease, and an inefficient use of health resources. This article seeks to elucidate the political process which hindered timely policy changes congruent with scientific advances. Methods Examination of historical materials, supplemented by personal interviews. The role that science played in the process of policy making was scrutinized with particular reference to the Garbage Can model. Results From the vantage of history, science remained instrumental in all period in the sense that it was not the primary objective for which policy change was discussed or intended, nor was it the principal driving force for policy change. When the argument arose, scientific arguments were employed to justify the patient isolation policy. However, in the early post-WWII period, issues were foregrounded and agendas were set as the inadvertent result of administrative reforms. Subsequently, scientific developments were more or less ignored due to concern about adverse policy outcomes. Finally, in the 1980s and 1990s, scientific arguments were used instrumentally to argue against isolation and for the termination of residential care. Conclusion Contrary to public expectations, health policy is not always rational and scientifically justified. In the process of policy making, the role of science can be limited and instrumental. Policy change may require the opening of policy windows, as a result of convergence of the problem, policy, and political streams, by effective exercise of leadership. Scientists and policymakers should be attentive enough to the political context of policies.

  11. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  12. Availability of tobacco cessation services in substance use disorder treatment programs: Impact of state tobacco control policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abraham, Amanda J; Bagwell-Adams, Grace; Jayawardhana, Jayani

    2017-08-01

    Given the high prevalence of smoking among substance use disorder (SUD) patients, the specialty SUD treatment system is an important target for adoption and implementation of tobacco cessation (TC) services. While research has addressed the impact of tobacco control on individual tobacco consumption, largely overlooked in the literature is the potential impact of state tobacco control policies on availability of services for tobacco cessation. This paper examines the association between state tobacco control policy and availability of TC services in SUD treatment programs in the United States. State tobacco control and state demographic data (n=51) were merged with treatment program data from the 2012 National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (n=10.413) to examine availability of TC screening, counseling and pharmacotherapy services in SUD treatment programs using multivariate logistic regression models clustered at the state-level. Approximately 60% of SUD treatment programs offered TC screening services, 41% offered TC counseling services and 26% offered TC pharmacotherapy services. Results of multivariate logistic regression showed the odds of offering TC services were greater for SUD treatment programs located in states with higher cigarette excise taxes and greater spending on tobacco prevention and control. Findings indicate cigarette excise taxes and recommended funding levels may be effective policy tools for increasing access to TC services in SUD treatment programs. Coupled with changes to insurance coverage for TC under the Affordable Care Act, state tobacco control policy tools may further reduce tobacco use in the United States. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. Tobacco Policies in Louisiana: Recommendations for Future Tobacco Control Investment from SimSmoke, a Policy Simulation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, David; Fergus, Cristin; Rudov, Lindsey; McCormick-Ricket, Iben; Carton, Thomas

    2016-02-01

    Despite the presence of tobacco control policies, Louisiana continues to experience a high smoking burden and elevated smoking-attributable deaths. The SimSmoke model provides projections of these health outcomes in the face of existing and expanded (simulated) tobacco control polices. The SimSmoke model utilizes population data, smoking rates, and various tobacco control policy measures from Louisiana to predict smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. The model begins in 1993 and estimates are projected through 2054. The model is validated against existing Louisiana smoking prevalence data. The most powerful individual policy measure for reducing smoking prevalence is cigarette excise tax. However, a comprehensive cessation treatment policy is predicted to save the most lives. A combination of tobacco control policies provides the greatest reduction in smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. The existing Louisiana excise tax ranks as one of the lowest in the country and the legislature is against further increases. Alternative policy measures aimed at lowering prevalence and attributable deaths are: cessation treatments, comprehensive smoke-free policies, and limiting youth access. These three policies have a substantial effect on smoking prevalence and attributable deaths and are likely to encounter more favor in the Louisiana legislature than increasing the state excise tax.

  14. Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marten, Alex; Kopp, Robert E.; Shouse, Kate C.; Griffiths, Charles; Hodson, Elke L.; Kopits, Elizabeth; Mignone, Bryan K.; Moore, Chris; Newbold, Steve; Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Wolverton, Ann

    2013-04-01

    to updating the estimates regularly as modeling capabilities and scientific and economic knowledge improves. To help foster further improvements in estimating the SCC, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy hosted a pair of workshops on “Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis.” The first focused on conceptual and methodological issues related to integrated assessment modeling and the second brought together natural and social scientists to explore methods for improving damage assessment for multiple sectors. These two workshops provide the basis for the 13 papers in this special issue.

  15. Environmental impacts and regulatory policy implications of spray disposal of dredged material in Louisiana wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahoon, D.R.; Cowan, J.H.

    1988-01-01

    The capabilities of a new wetland dredging technology were assessed along with associated newly developed state and federal regulatory policies to determine if policy expectations realistically match the technological achievement. Current regulatory practices require amelioration of spoil bank impacts upon abandonment of an oil/gas well, but this may not occur for many years or decades, if at all. Recently, a dreding method (high-pressure spray spoil disposal) was developed that does not create a spoil bank in the traditional sense. Its potential for reducing environmental impacts was recognized immediately by regulatory agencies for whom minimizing spoil bank impacts is a major concern. The use of high-pressure spray disposal as a suitable alternative to traditional dreding technology has been adopted as policy even though its value as a management tool has never been tested or verified. A qualitative evaluation at two spoil disposal sites in saline marsh indicates that high-pressure spray disposal may indeed have great potential to minimize impacts, but most of this potential remains unverified. Also, some aspects of current regulatory policy may be based on unrealistic expectations as to the ability of this new technology to minimize or eliminate spoil bank impacts.

  16. The impact of Border policy effect on cross-border ethnic areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bie, Q. L.; Zhou, S. Y.; Li, C. S.

    2013-11-01

    Boundary effect analysis is related to border policy making in the cross-border ethnic area. The border effect literatures show that geographic boundaries have obvious impacts on economic, social and cultural relations in both sides of a nation border. Particularly in cross-border ethnic areas, each ethnic group has strong internal spatial structure relevance, and the boundary effect is more obvious. However, most of China's border areas are cross-border ethnic areas, each of border issues is unique. Under this perspective, we analyze the border effects of various boundaries can provide basis for formulating border management policies. For small scale of cross-border ethnic minority areas, how to formulate the boundary management policy is a good question to explore. This paper is demonstrated by a study of the impact of border management policies in Dehong Dai and Jingpo Autonomous Prefecture in Yunnan Province at the border area to Burma. The comparative method is used to analysis the border management policies in past 50 decades for the border area of Yunnan Province .This research aims to define trends within border policy and its influences to national security. This paper also examines Wendy Brown's liberal theory of border management policy. We found that it is not suitable for Sino-Burma border area. The conclusion is that the changes or instability of international economic and political situation has more influence to this cross-border ethnic area, and only innovative policy will be effective in cross-border ethnic area. So the border management policies should reflect the change of international context.

  17. Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

    2017-11-14

    Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing-rather than merely cost savings-again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  18. Public health impacts of city policies to reduce climate change: findings from the URGENCHE EU-China project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabel, Clive E; Hiscock, Rosemary; Asikainen, Arja; Bi, Jun; Depledge, Mike; van den Elshout, Sef; Friedrich, Rainer; Huang, Ganlin; Hurley, Fintan; Jantunen, Matti; Karakitsios, Spyros P; Keuken, Menno; Kingham, Simon; Kontoroupis, Periklis; Kuenzli, Nino; Liu, Miaomiao; Martuzzi, Marco; Morton, Katie; Mudu, Pierpaolo; Niittynen, Marjo; Perez, Laura; Sarigiannis, Denis; Stahl-Timmins, Will; Tobollik, Myriam; Tuomisto, Jouni; Willers, Saskia

    2016-03-08

    Climate change is a global threat to health and wellbeing. Here we provide findings of an international research project investigating the health and wellbeing impacts of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in urban environments. Five European and two Chinese city authorities and partner academic organisations formed the project consortium. The methodology involved modelling the impact of adopted urban climate-change mitigation transport, buildings and energy policy scenarios, usually for the year 2020 and comparing them with business as usual (BAU) scenarios (where policies had not been adopted). Carbon dioxide emissions, health impacting exposures (air pollution, noise and physical activity), health (cardiovascular, respiratory, cancer and leukaemia) and wellbeing (including noise related wellbeing, overall wellbeing, economic wellbeing and inequalities) were modelled. The scenarios were developed from corresponding known levels in 2010 and pre-existing exposure response functions. Additionally there were literature reviews, three longitudinal observational studies and two cross sectional surveys. There are four key findings. Firstly introduction of electric cars may confer some small health benefits but it would be unwise for a city to invest in electric vehicles unless their power generation fuel mix generates fewer emissions than petrol and diesel. Second, adopting policies to reduce private car use may have benefits for carbon dioxide reduction and positive health impacts through reduced noise and increased physical activity. Third, the benefits of carbon dioxide reduction from increasing housing efficiency are likely to be minor and co-benefits for health and wellbeing are dependent on good air exchange. Fourthly, although heating dwellings by in-home biomass burning may reduce carbon dioxide emissions, consequences for health and wellbeing were negative with the technology in use in the cities studied. The climate-change reduction policies reduced

  19. Modeling and Recognizing Policy Conflicts with Resource Access Requests on Protected Health Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raik Kuhlisch

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses potential clashes between different types of security policies that regulate resource access requests on clinical patient data in hospitals by employees. Attribute-based Access Control (ABAC is proposed as a proper means for such regulation. A proper representation of ABAC policies must include a handling of policy attributes among different policy types. In this article, we propose a semantic policy model with predefined policy conflict categories. A conformance verification function detects erroneous, clashing or mutually susceptible rules early during the policy planning phase. The model and conflicts are used in a conceptual application environment and evaluated in a technical experiment during an interoperability test event.

  20. Impacts of the Doha Round framework agreements on dairy policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, N; Kaiser, H M

    2005-05-01

    Dairy is highly regulated in many countries for several reasons. Perishability, seasonal imbalances, and inelastic supply and demand for milk can cause inherent market instability. Milk buyers typically have had more market power than dairy farmers. Comparative production advantages in some countries have led to regulations and policies to protect local dairy farmers by maintaining domestic prices higher than world prices. A worldwide consensus on reduction of border measures for protecting dairy products is unlikely, and dairy will probably be an exception in ongoing World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations. Under the Doha Round framework agreements, countries may name some products such as dairy as "sensitive," thereby excluding them from further reforms. However, new Doha Round framework agreements depart from the current WTO rule and call for product-specific spending caps. Such caps will greatly affect the dairy sector because dairy accounts for much of the aggregate measure of support (AMS) in several countries, including the United States and Canada. Also, the amounts of dairy AMS in several countries may be recalculated relative to an international reference price. In addition, all export subsidies are targeted for elimination in the Doha Round, including export credit programs and state trading enterprises, which will limit options for disposing of surplus dairy products in foreign markets. Currently, with higher domestic prices, measures for cutting or disposing of surpluses have been used in many countries. Supply control, which is not regulated by WTO rules, remains as an option. Although explicit export subsidies are restricted by WTO rules, many countries use esoteric measures to promote dairy exports. If countries agree to eliminate "consumer financed" export subsidies using a theoretical definition and measurements proposed herein as Export Subsidy Equivalents (ESE), dairy exports in many countries may be affected. Although domestic supports and

  1. Transboundary air pollution in Asia: Model development and policy implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, Tracey

    2001-12-01

    This work investigates transboundary air pollution in Asia through atmospheric modeling and public policy analysis. As an example of models actively shaping environmental policy, the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution in Europe (LRTAP) is selected as a case study. The LRTAP Convention is the only mulit- lateral air pollution agreement to date, and results from the RAINS integrated assessment model were heavily used to calculate nationally differentiated emission ceilings. Atmospheric chemistry and transport are included in RAINS through the use of transfer coefficients (or ``source-receptor relationships'') relating pollutant transfer among European nations. Following past work with ATMOS to simulate sulfur species in Asia, here ATMOS is developed to include odd-nitrogen. Fitting with the linear structure of ATMOS and the emphasis on computational efficiency, a simplified chemical scheme developed for use in the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Global Chemical Transport Model (GFDL GCTM) is adopted. The method solves for the interconversions between NOx, HNO3, and PAN based on five reaction rates stored in look-up tables. ATMOS is used to calculate source-receptor relationships for Asia. Significant exchange of NOy occurs among China, North and South Korea, and Japan. On an annual average basis, China contributes 18% to Japan's total nitrate deposition, 46% to North Korea, and 26% to South Korea. Nitrate deposition is an important component of acidification (along with sulfate deposition), contributing 30-50% to the acid burden over most of Japan, and more than 50% to acid deposition in southeast Asia, where biomass burning emits high levels of NOx. In evaluating the policy-relevance of results from the ATMOS model, four factors are taken into account: the uncertainty and limitations of ATMOS, the environmental concerns facing Asia, the current status of the scientific community in relation to regional air pollution in the region, and

  2. Policy health impact assessment of the EU Health Strategy (2008-2013). Fostering good health in an aging Europe – tackling tobacco consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza

    2012-01-01

    smoking by incorporating the issue into its 1st objective “Fostering good health in an aging Europe”. The aim of the study was to assess the health impact of the most effective tobacco control policy, taxation, on the EU level. Methods: The assessment was based on the mapping of the whole impact scheme...... from which one priority causal pathway was selected for detailed quantitative evaluation. The analysis was carried out on each impact level using the top-down risk assessment tool developed in the Risk Assessment from Policy to Impact Dimension EU project. Health outcome was quantified as the change...... in the number of death attributable to smoking. Results: Tobacco taxation policy affects two health determinants directly and several others indirectly. It influences state income due to changing prices and substance use which has been chosen for detailed assessment. In the model, the scenario of 10% price...

  3. Assessment of biofuels supporting policies using the BioTrans model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lensink, Sander; Londo, Marc

    2010-01-01

    The introduction of advanced, 2nd generation biofuels is a difficult to forecast process. Policies may impact the timing of their introduction and the future biofuels mix. The least-cost optimization model BioTrans supports policy analyses on these issues. It includes costs for all parts of the supply chain, and endogenous learning for all biofuels technologies, including cost reductions through scale. BioTrans shows that there are significant lock-in effects favouring traditional biofuels, and that the optimal biofuels mix by 2030 is path dependent. The model captures important barriers for the introduction of emerging technologies, thereby providing valuable quantitative information that can be used in analyses of biofuels supporting policies. It is shown that biodiesel from oil crops will remain a cost effective way of producing biofuels in the medium term at moderate target levels. Aiming solely at least-cost biofuel production is in conflict with a longer term portfolio approach on biofuels, and the desire to come to biofuels with the lowest greenhouse gas emissions. Lowering the targets because of environmental constraints delays the development of 2nd generation biofuels, unless additional policy measures (such as specific sub targets for these fuels) are implemented.

  4. Chapter 15: Using System Dynamics to Model Industry's Developmental Response to Energy Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Brian; Inman, Daniel; Newes, Emily; Peck, Corey; Peterson, Steve; Stright, Dana; Vimmerstedt, Laura

    2016-11-01

    In this chapter we explore the potential development of the biofuels industry using the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM), a system dynamics model developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory through the support of the U.S. Department of Energy. The BSM is designed to analyze the implications of policy on the development of the supply chain for biofuels in the United States. It explicitly represents the behavior of decision makers such as farmers, investors, fueling station owners, and consumers. We analyze several illustrative case studies that explore a range of policies and discuss how incentives interact with individual parts of the supply chain as well as the industry as a whole. The BSM represents specific incentives that are intended to approximate policy in the form of selected laws and regulations. Through characterizing the decision making behaviors of economic actors within the supply chain that critically influence the adoption rate of new biofuels production technologies and demonstrating synergies among policies, we find that incentives with coordinated impacts on each major element of the supply chain catalyze net effects of decision maker behavior such that the combined incentives are greater than the summed effects of individual incentives in isolation.

  5. Impact of experience on government policy toward acceptance of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Min Jung; Park, Heejun

    2011-01-01

    As the 'low carbon, green growth' agenda, which emphasized sustainable development through equilibrium between economic growth and environmental preservation, is propagated rapidly in Korea. Despite this progress, it is not uncommon for new products made through advanced technologies, such as hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, to face public skepticism preventing market penetration. Therefore, the factors impacting customer acceptance of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have to be estimated. Furthermore, it is necessary to examine whether or not the policies related to these products can prevent public skepticism regarding them. This empirical study examining the relationship between personal experiences related to the policy and acceptance of the innovative products of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles shows that government involvement in technology targeting and promotions administered by the 'low carbon, green growth' agenda rarely stimulate potential customers' purchase intentions. Thus, technology targeting administered by the 'low carbon, green growth' agenda needs to be reconciled with customer responses to the future market. - Highlights: → Experience of the 'low carbon, green growth' policy affects perception of it. → Positive perception on the policy seldom arouses positive perception on HFCV performance. → Technology targeting by the policy rarely stimulates purchase intention of HFCV. → Desire to be regarded as a person with environment concern impacts purchase intentions.→ Technology targeting by the policy needs to be reconciled with customer responses to it.

  6. Stemming the impact of health professional brain drain from Africa: a systemic review of policy options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Zimbudzi

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Africa has been losing professionally trained health workers who are the core of the health system of this continent for many years. Faced with an increased burden of disease and coupled by a massive exodus of the health workforce, the health systems of many African nations are risking complete paralysis. Several studies have suggested policy options to reduce brain drain from Africa. The purpose of this paper is to review possible policies, which can stem the impact of health professional brain drain from Africa. A systemic literature review was conducted. Cinahl, Science Direct and PubMed databases were searched with the following terms: health professional brain drain from Africa and policies for reducing impact of brain drain from Africa. References were also browsed for relevant articles. A total of 425 articles were available for the study but only 23 articles met the inclusion criteria. The review identified nine policy options, which were being implemented in Africa, but the most common was task shifting which had success in several African countries. This review has demonstrated that there is considerable consensus on task shifting as the most appropriate and sustainable policy option for reducing the impact of health professional brain drain from Africa.

  7. Impact of US biofuel policy on US corn and gasoline price variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McPhail, Lihong Lu; Babcock, Bruce A.

    2012-01-01

    Despite a large number of studies that examine the influence of biofuels and biofuel policy on commodity prices, the impact of biofuel policy on commodity price variability is poorly understood. A good understanding of biofuel policy’s impact on price variability is important for mitigating food insecurity and assisting policy formation. We examine how U.S. ethanol policies such as the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates and the blend wall affect the price variability of corn and gasoline. We first present an analytical and graphical framework to identify the effect and then use stochastic partial equilibrium simulation to measure the magnitude of the impacts. We show that RFS mandates and the blend wall both reduce the price elasticity of demand for corn and gasoline and therefore increase the price variability when supply shocks occur to the markets. This has important implications for policy actions with respect to maintaining or changing the current RFS mandates and/or blend wall in the US. -- Highlights: ► The RFS is found to lead to less elastic demand for corn and gasoline. ► Thus the RFS is also found to lead to more volatile corn and gasoline prices when supply shocks occur. ► The ethanol blend wall is found to lead to less elastic corn and gasoline demand. ► Thus the blend wall is also found to lead to more volatile corn and gasoline prices.

  8. Developing a long-term global tourism transport model using a behavioural approach: implications for sustainable tourism policy making.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, P.M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores the creation and use of a long-term global tourism transport model for private and public sector tourism policy makers. Given that technology is unlikely to reduce tourism transport's impact on climate change sufficiently to avoid serious dangers, behavioural change is necessary.

  9. The government policy impact on economic development of tourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vujko Aleksandra

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Tycoons and politicians are the main players of tourism in most parts of the world, and they often use tourism as a tool for gaining economic and political power, and creating a positive, albeit propagandized, image of their country. The paper is based on a positive example of an approved project by the Government of Vojvodina Secretariat for Science and Technological Development. The main goal of this paper is to show whether the local residents are familiar with the project and how much they know about project, and what is their opinion about the impact which this project or other similar projects have on the observed area (Fruška Gora Mountain - Serbia. The conclusion is that there is a direct positive relationship between residents' perceptions of the benefits of tourism and their political support. The method survey was conducted on a random sample of the residents of seven local settlements (the sample of 249 participants. The data were processed with the SPSS program (version 17.0. Chi-square test is used to determine the frequency of specific deviations.

  10. Impacts on industry of Europe's emerging chemicals policy REACh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angerer, Gerhard; Nordbeck, Ralf; Sartorius, Christian

    2008-03-01

    For Europe, a new regime in chemicals regulation is about to start. After the proposal of the European Commission concerning the Registration, Evaluation and Authorization of Chemicals (REACh) passed its readings in the European Parliament and some differences with the European Council of Ministers were resolved, the regulation will come into force in June 2007. This paper is focused on the question how serious the cost burdens for industry induced by REACh will be, and whether the New European Member States (NMS) which joined the European Union in May 2004 will be able to cope with the regulation. This evaluation has been done by assessing the legislative, administrative and economic framework in New Member States and by analysing real business cases in companies. The empirical showcase business impact studies are at the same time of interest for companies of EU-15 states, other European countries who may implement the regulation, and even for exporters of raw materials and chemicals outside Europe, who will also have to comply with REACh if they market in the European Community. The results give no indications that REACh adoption will bring significant drawbacks to companies in the NMS. The emerging regulation will bring challenges for individual companies, especially for small and medium-sized ones, but for the European chemical industry as a whole, there is no question that it will be able to cope with REACh burdens without losing its global competitiveness.

  11. Value for Money? Problems of Impact Assessment of Counter-radicalization Policies on End Target Groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindekilde, Lasse

    2012-01-01

    and structural factors underpinning such a process. The result is a variety of interventions across the EU, signalling a lack of consensus on the purposes of counter-radicalisation. In addition, indicators of success of counter-radicalisation policies are often unclear or unspecified. One consequence...... of this is that assessments of the effectiveness of counter-radicalisation measures and policy responses are either lacking or often methodologically questionable, impairing our understanding of the impacts of counter-radicalisation interventions on targeted communities. The article investigates problems of assessing......There is a lack of consensus in the academic literature and among policy makers and practitioners on the definition of violent radicalisation, and current counter-radicalisation policy responses and procedures are informed by a weak and, at times, confused understanding of the motivational...

  12. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-06-13

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL's researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic power, natural gas, photovoltaics, and transmission lines. This fact sheet focuses on JEDI for wind energy projects and is revised with 2017 figures.

  13. Impact of competitive electricity market on renewable generation technology choice and policies in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarkar, Ashok

    1999-01-01

    Market objectives based on private value judgments will conflict with social policy objectives toward environmental quality in an emerging restructured electricity industry. This might affect the choice of renewables in the future generation mix. The US electricity industry's long-term capacity planning and operations is simulated for alternative market paradigms to study this impact. The analysis indicates that the share of renewable energy generation sources would decrease and emissions would increase considerably in a more competitive industry, with greater impact occurring in a monopoly market. Alternative environmental policy options can overcome market failures and help achieve appropriate levels of renewable generation. An evaluation of these policies indicate their varying cost-effectiveness, with higher levels of intervention necessary if market power exists. (Author)

  14. Computable general equilibrium modelling in the context of trade and environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koesler, Simon Tobias

    2014-01-01

    This thesis is dedicated to the evaluation of environmental policies in the context of climate change. Its objectives are twofold. Its first part is devoted to the development of potent instruments for quantitative impact analysis of environmental policy. In this context, the main contributions include the development of a new computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which makes use of the new comprehensive and coherent World Input-Output Dataset (WIOD) and which features a detailed representation of bilateral and bisectoral trade flows. Moreover it features an investigation of input substitutability to provide modellers with adequate estimates for key elasticities as well as a discussion and amelioration of the standard base year calibration procedure of most CGE models. Building on these tools, the second part applies the improved modelling framework and studies the economic implications of environmental policy. This includes an analysis of so called rebound effects, which are triggered by energy efficiency improvements and reduce their net benefit, an investigation of how firms restructure their production processes in the presence of carbon pricing mechanisms, and an analysis of a regional maritime emission trading scheme as one of the possible options to reduce emissions of international shipping in the EU context.

  15. Evaluating the Impact of National Educational Policy to Reduce Retention and Increase Achievement in Compulsory Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barata, M. Clara; Calheiros, M. Manuela; Patrício, Joana Nunes; Graça, João; Lima, M. Luisa

    2015-01-01

    Despite the accumulated evidence that retention is an ineffective and potentially harmful remedial strategy, several countries struggle with high levels of retention in compulsory schooling. This article provides evidence of the impact of the Portuguese national educational policy "Programa Mais Sucesso Escolar" (PMSE) using class size,…

  16. Identifying and evaluating environmental impacts associated with timber harvest scheduling policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert M. Randall; Robert W. Sassaman

    1979-01-01

    Expected impacts on the ecosystem and nontimber benefits (that is, people's use of the resources—recreation, hunting, fishing, swimming, etc.) resulting from alternative timber harvest scheduling policies are identified and evaluated for the Mount Hood National Forest. Environmental criteria are established and used in evaluations of timber harvest and...

  17. The impact of European antitrust policy : Evidence from the stock market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Günster (Andrea); M.A. van Dijk (Mathijs)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractWe evaluate the impact of European antitrust policy by analyzing the stock market response to investiga-tion announcements, infringement decisions, and appeals for 253 companies involved in 118 Europeanantitrust cases over 1974–2004. We find significantly negative stock price

  18. The Impact of Public Expenditure and Fiscal Policies on Britain's Children and Young People.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holtermann, Sally

    1996-01-01

    Reviews research evidence on the benefits and costs of increasing investment in children, and a redirection of some economic policies that have an indirect impact on children. Concludes that much more could be done to enhance the well-being of children, but it would require a willingness to increase both public spending and taxation. (MOK)

  19. Evaluating the impact of regional development policies on future landscape services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willemen, L.; Hein, L.G.; Verburg, P.H.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we analyse the potential impact of an integrated policy package for the Gelderse Vallei region in the Netherlands on seven landscape services (residential use, intensive livestock husbandry, drinking water supply, attractiveness for overnight tourism, habitat provision for rare,

  20. The impact of Populist Radical Right Parties on socio-economic policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roeth, L.; Afonso, A.; Spies, D.

    2017-01-01

    Because they are now members of most Western European parliaments, Populist Radical Right Parties (PRRPs) have the potential to influence the formulation of socio-economic policies. However, scholarly attention so far has nearly exclusively focussed on the impact of PRRPs on what is considered their

  1. The Impact of 2002 National Teacher Contract Policy Reform on Teacher Absenteeism in Lahore, Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habib, Masooma

    2010-01-01

    Teacher absenteeism is a persistent problem in Pakistani government schools. Under a new policy, teachers hired in Pakistani schools after 2002 are hired on fixed term contracts that are renewed, in part, based on low absenteeism. This study uses qualitative analysis techniques to assess the impact of contractual hiring on teacher absenteeism…

  2. The Impact of Active Labour Market Policy on Post-Unemployment Outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blasco, Sylvie; Rosholm, Michael

    While job search theory predicts that active labour market policies (ALMPs) can affect post-unemployment outcomes, empirical evaluations investigating transition rates have mostly focused on the impact of ALMPs on exit rates from the current unemployment spell. We use a social experiment, which...

  3. Overcoming barriers to increased bio-energy use. Suggestions for a high impact policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chanakya, H.N.; Ravindranath, N.H.

    1997-01-01

    A few options that are likely to result in a high impact policy towards ensuring increased use of bio-energy in the developing world are discussed. Such options are: Moving towards greater energy security /guarantee, bio-energy technology transfer platforms, documentation in bio-energy businesses, removing risk perceptions in financing, increasing private entrepreneur stakes, etc. (K.A.)

  4. The Impact of Price, Tax, and Advertising Policies on Alcohol Use in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    ... relationship between alcohol pricing, taxation, and advertising policies and alcohol use -impact of tobacco prices on alcohol use. The researchers will work with knowledge-transfer platform teams and decision-makers in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, and Peru to design a tailored knowledge transfer and exchange strategy.

  5. The Family Impact Lens: A Family-Focused, Evidence-Informed Approach to Policy and Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogenschneider, Karen; Little, Olivia M.; Ooms, Theodora; Benning, Sara; Cadigan, Karen; Corbett, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Families have long been recognized for the contributions they make to their members and to society. Yet families are seldom substantively incorporated into the normal course of policy and program development, implementation, and evaluation. We propose the family impact lens as one way to shift the rhetoric from appreciating families to…

  6. Impact of Policy and Legal Reforms on a Pastoral System in Lower ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A socio-economic study was conducted in the lower Kagera sub-basin in North Western Tanzania to assess the impact of land-use policies and legal reformson pastoral system. Questionnaire surveys and PRA approaches were employed to collect data in four districts: Muleba, Missenyi, Karagwe and Ngara in Kagera ...

  7. Examining the Feasibility and Impact of a Graduate Public Administration Course in Evidence-Informed Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouimet, Mathieu; Lapointe, Luc; Léon, Grégory

    2015-01-01

    A pilot controlled before-and-after design was used to assess the impact of a new master-level course in evidence-informed policy making on students' basic knowledge in evidence-based practice. The primary outcome variable was the mean percentage of pre-post improvement on the knowledge test. In the treatment group, the mean percentage of pre-post…

  8. The impact of medical tourism on Thai private hospital management: informing hospital policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Paul T J

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to help consolidate and understand management perceptions and experiences of a targeted group (n=7) of Vice-Presidents of international Private Thai hospitals in Bangkok regarding medical tourism impacts. The method adopted uses a small-scale qualitative inquiry. Examines the on-going development and service management factors which contribute to the establishment and strengthening of relationships between international patients and hospital medical services provision. Develops a qualitative model that attempts to conceptualize the findings from a diverse range of management views into a framework of main (8) - Hospital Management; Hospital Processes; Hospital Technology; Quality Related; Communications; Personnel; Financial; and Patients; and consequent sub-themes (22). Outcomes from small-scale qualitative inquiries cannot by design be taken outside of its topical arena. This inevitably indicates that more research of this kind needs to be carried out to understand this field more effectively. The evidence suggests that Private Thai hospital management have established views about what constitutes the impact of medical tourism on hospital policies and practices when hospital staff interact with international patients. As the private health service sector in Thailand continues to grow, future research is needed to help hospitals provide appropriate service patterns and appropriate medical products/services that meet international patient needs and aspirations. Highlights the increasing importance of the international consumer in Thailand's health industry. This study provides insights of private health service providers in Bangkok by helping to understand more effectively health service quality environments, subsequent service provision, and the integrated development and impacts of new medical technology.

  9. Comments on "Complementarity and Conflict among Population and Other Policies: Specifying an Economic-Demographic Model for a Developing Country".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, A H

    1993-01-01

    The critique of Mariano's economic-demographic model of population and other policies for developing countries cites the value of such a detailed model for developing a family planning policy within the context of macroeconomic government policies. The model points out the impact on fertility of effective family planning policies and increased educational expenditures. Work force participation and reduced fertility is also affected by increased female educational levels, which in combination with increasing health expenditures for children reduces infant mortality as a means of further reducing fertility. Savings and investment increase with reduced fertility and reduce population growth. Per capital income increases with higher investment and lower population growth; the effect is to increase resource availability for improvements in health and education. Rural-urban migration must be balanced by policies in urban areas supporting industrial investment and policies in rural areas for increased educational and health expenditures. Changes in the structure of demand affect the structure of the economy, which in turn affects exports. The paper contributes to a model of simultaneous equations for estimating the linkages between demography and economics factors already known. The model combines the Chicago-Columbia model and the Pennsylvania model but ignores biological variables such as those identified by Behrman and Wolfe as women's health status, breast feeding, and nutritional level. International migration may be important for some countries such as the Philippines and Thailand. Extended families may be an important variable excluded from the model. Criticism is directed to the measure of rural-urban migration which does not separate out by age those migrating between countries. The assumption is that international migrants only come from urban areas. In Bangladesh the man-land ratio was found to be important. Changing definitions of literacy may impact on the

  10. Global perspectives on nursing and its contribution to healthcare and health policy: thoughts on an emerging policy model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shamian, Judith

    2014-12-01

    We know from rigorous evidence that nurses can exert an incredible impact on the everyday lives of people and their health. Nurses can also contribute in much wider spheres of influence by applying their knowledge and skills to address broader issues affecting population health across communities, nations and globally. Despite the prevalence of so many vexing health and social issues, nurses often fail to think globally, or even regionally, when they are lobbying for change. And while much political influence is local, some issues are simply too complex to rely on local influence alone. Importantly in all this, we must acknowledge the ways these complex health issues are shaped by economic and political agendas and not necessarily by healthcare agendas. As such, the nursing community has to act globally and locally, both within and outside of the nursing arena. This paper explores early thinking about an evolving model of spheres--or "bubbles"--of policy influence in which nurses can and must operate to more effectively impact key global health and healthcare challenges.

  11. Control policies impact on commercial trade in nuclear sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vatamanu, Mariana; Bugeag, Elena; Ignat Irina

    2004-01-01

    The restructuring of the economic sectors, improvement of the business environment and, implicitly, the development of the appropriate legislative framework correspond to the main objectives of the Work Programme issued by the Government of Romania with view to fulfil the criteria imposed by the European Commission for the accession of Romania to European Union planned for the year 2007. One of the legislative package section, being under revision of the Legislative Chamber of Romania, is referring to power sector, where remarkable efforts are made in connection with energy and gas market liberalization towards 40% opening, correction applied to the thermal and electric power and gas tariffs, with a view to get fully cover of the production costs, start up of the privatisation process for some of the distribution companies and all these represent part of the main priorities of the Romanian government for the restructuring of the power sector. SN Nuclearelectrica SA - SNN SA - has as domain of its main activities the development of the nuclear program in Romania regarding: Cernavoda Unit 1 operation for production and delivery of electric power to the National Grid (since 1996), the nuclear fuel fabrication at Nuclear Fuel Plant in Pitesti, the completion and commissioning of the Cernavoda Unit 2 and start up, in the near future, of the work for Unit 3 completion. The trade activity within the power production sector using nuclear fuel is governed, due to its specific, by the rules and laws of Romania and are also subject of the international rules related to the foreign trade and, particularly to the policy of transaction of the special materials on international market. This category of special materials, named strategic materials with dual use, are under the control of the National Agency for Export Control - ANCEX, as well as other specialised and dedicated Romanian authorities, as: National Commission for the Nuclear Activities Control - CNCAN, specialized

  12. The Growing Supranational Impacts of the OECD and the EU on National Educational Policies, and the Case of Finland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinne, Risto

    2008-01-01

    The trends of globalisation have had unavoidable impacts in steering and guiding the decisions of national policy-makers and the direction of national education policies. In the obscuring processes of supranational homogenisation of education and educational policy, supranational regimes, such as the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and…

  13. POLICY ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH USING SIMULATION TO ASSESS ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uchitel, Kirsten; Tanana, Heather

    2014-11-01

    This report examines the relationship between simulation-based science and judicial assessments of simulations or models supporting evaluations of environmental harms or risks, considering both how it exists currently and how it might be shaped in the future. This report considers the legal standards relevant to judicial assessments of simulation-based science and provides examples of the judicial application of those legal standards. Next, this report discusses the factors that inform whether there is a correlation between the sophistication of a challenged simulation and judicial support for that simulation. Finally, this report examines legal analysis of the broader issues that must be addressed for simulation-based science to be better understood and utilized in the context of judicial challenge and evaluation. !

  14. Estimating Non-Market Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rothman, D.S.; Amelung, B.; Polome, P.

    2003-01-01

    A number of studies over the past few decades have attempted to estimate the potential impacts of climate change and climate policy. For reasons related to, inter alia, our incomplete understanding of the workings of many natural and social systems, the tremendous spatial and temporal variability in these systems, and the long time frames over which the issue of climate change will play out, there are large degrees of uncertainty in these estimates. Some of the most rancorous debates, however, have focused on those studies that have attempted to place economic values on these impacts. This should not be surprising as the outcomes of these studies have played an important role in the debates over climate policy. Rightly or wrongly, the estimates presented in these studies are often held up against similar estimates of the costs of mitigating against climate change. The process of economic valuation of environmental and social issues is still relatively young, much less its application to the potential impacts of climate change and climate policy. Issues such as climate change push existing techniques to their limits, and possibly beyond. Among the topics that have raised the most concern are the choice of the proper baseline against which to make comparisons, the treatment of uncertainty in human and natural systems, incomplete accounting, the actual valuation of specific impacts, and the aggregation of impacts over time and across widely differing societies. Some of the more recent studies have tried to address these issues, albeit not always satisfactorily. One aspect that makes the economic valuation of environmental and social issues difficult is that it requires addressing impacts that are not typically associated with economic markets, so called nonmarket impacts. In addition to not being traded in markets, many of these impacts affect goods and services that have the characteristic of being public goods, i.e. it is not possible to restrict their use to a

  15. Global climate policy impacts on livestock, land use, livelihoods, and food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golub, Alla A; Henderson, Benjamin B; Hertel, Thomas W; Gerber, Pierre J; Rose, Steven K; Sohngen, Brent

    2013-12-24

    Recent research has shed light on the cost-effective contribution that agriculture can make to global greenhouse gas abatement; however, the resulting impacts on agricultural production, producer livelihoods, and food security remain largely unexplored. This paper provides an integrated assessment of the linkages between land-based climate policies, development, and food security, with a particular emphasis on abatement opportunities and impacts in the livestock sector. Targeting Annex I countries and exempting non-Annex I countries from land-based carbon policies on equity or food security grounds may result in significant leakage rates for livestock production and agriculture as a whole. We find that such leakage can be eliminated by supplying forest carbon sequestration incentives to non-Annex I countries. Furthermore, substantial additional global agricultural abatement can be attained by extending a greenhouse gas emissions tax to non-Annex I agricultural producers, while compensating them for their additional tax expenses. Because of their relatively large emissions intensities and limited abatement possibilities, ruminant meat producers face the greatest market adjustments to land-based climate policies. We also evaluate the impacts of climate policies on livelihoods and food consumption in developing countries. In the absence of non-Annex I abatement policies, these impacts are modest. However, strong income and food consumption impacts surface because of higher food costs after forest carbon sequestration is promoted at a global scale. Food consumption among unskilled labor households falls but rises for the representative farm households, because global agricultural supplies are restricted and farm prices rise sharply in the face of inelastic food demands.

  16. Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahowald, Natalie M.; Ward, Daniel S.; Doney, Scott C.; Hess, Peter G.; Randerson, James T.

    2017-09-01

    While carbon dioxide emissions from energy use must be the primary target of climate change mitigation efforts, land use and land cover change (LULCC) also represent an important source of climate forcing. In this study we compute time series of global surface temperature change separately for LULCC and non-LULCC sources (primarily fossil fuel burning), and show that because of the extra warming associated with the co-emission of methane and nitrous oxide with LULCC carbon dioxide emissions, and a co-emission of cooling aerosols with non-LULCC emissions of carbon dioxide, the linear relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and temperature has a two-fold higher slope for LULCC than for non-LULCC activities. Moreover, projections used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the rate of tropical land conversion in the future are relatively low compared to contemporary observations, suggesting that the future projections of land conversion used in the IPCC may underestimate potential impacts of LULCC. By including a ‘business as usual’ future LULCC scenario for tropical deforestation, we find that even if all non-LULCC emissions are switched off in 2015, it is likely that 1.5 °C of warming relative to the preindustrial era will occur by 2100. Thus, policies to reduce LULCC emissions must remain a high priority if we are to achieve the low to medium temperature change targets proposed as a part of the Paris Agreement. Future studies using integrated assessment models and other climate simulations should include more realistic deforestation rates and the integration of policy that would reduce LULCC emissions.

  17. Analysis of rice policy based on presidential instruction on household food security: simultaneous equation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sembiring, S. A.

    2018-02-01

    The objective of this research is to analyze the impacts of rice policy on the household food security. The research used cross section data, were collected from 74 respondent as determined by purposive sampling in Sei Rejo villages, the Sub District of Sei Rampah, Serdang Bedagai District in the Province of North Sumatera. Rice policy model specification uses the simultaneous equations consisting of 6 structural equations and 6 identity equations which was estimated using Two Stages Least Squares (2SLS) method. The results show that the effectiveness of government purchase price of dried harvest paddy gave a positive impact on paddy planted area and lead to an increase paddy production and an increase of the rice production gave a positive impact on household rice availability and household rice surplus, and the increase of household rice surplus gave the quantity of Raskin decrease, whereas the increase of fertilizers gave a negative impact on paddy planted area and lead to decrease paddy production and to decrease in rice production was followed by an decrease in household rice availability and household rice surplus, and the decrease of household rice surplus gave the quantity of Raskin increase.

  18. An appraisal of policies and institutional frameworks impacting on smallholder agricultural water management in Zimbabwe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyagumbo, I.; Rurinda, J.

    Policies and institutional frameworks associated with and / or impacting on agricultural water management (AWM) in smallholder farming systems in Zimbabwe were analyzed through literature reviews, feedback from stakeholder workshops, key informant interviews and evaluation of policy impacts on implemented case study projects/programmes. The study showed that Zimbabwe has gone a long way towards developing a water management policy addressing both equity and access, through the Water and ZINWA of 1998. However, lack of incentives for improving efficient management and utilization of water resources once water has reached the farm gate was apparent, apart from punitive economic instruments levied on usage of increased volumes of water. For example, the new water reforms of 1998 penalized water savers through loss of any unused water in their permits to other users. In addition, the ability of smallholder farmers to access water for irrigation or other purposes was influenced by macro and micro-economic policies such as Economic Structural and Adjustment Programme (ESAP), Zimbabwe Programme for Economic and Social Transformation (ZIMPREST), prevailing monetary and fiscal policies, as well as the Land and Agrarian Reform policies. For instance, the implementation of ESAP from 1991 to 95 resulted in a decline in government support to management of communal irrigation schemes, and as a result only gravity-fed schemes survived. Also AWM projects/programmes that were in progress were prematurely terminated. While considerable emphasis was placed on rehabilitation of irrigation infrastructure since the fast track land reform in 1998, the policies remained rather silent on strategies for water management in rainfed systems. The piecemeal nature and fragmentation of policies and institutional frameworks scattered across government ministries and sectors were complex and created difficulties for smallholder farmers to access water resources. Poor policy implementation

  19. Assessing policies towards sustainable transport in Europe: an integrated model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zachariadis, Theodoros

    2005-01-01

    A transport simulation and forecast model is presented, which is designed for the assessment of policy options aiming to achieve sustainability in transportation. Starting from a simulation of the economic behaviour of consumers and producers within a microeconomic optimisation framework and the resulting calculation of the modal split, the allocation of the vehicle stock into vintages and technological groups is modelled. In a third step, a technology-oriented algorithm, which incorporates the relevant state-of-the-art knowledge in Europe, calculates emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases as well as appropriate indicators for traffic congestion, noise and road accidents. The paper outlines the methodology and the basic data sources used in connection with work done so far in Europe, presents the outlook according to a 'reference case' run for the 15 current European Union Member States up to 2030, displays aggregate results from a number of alternative scenarios and outlines elements of future work

  20. Bridges between science, society and policy technology assessment : methods and impacts

    CERN Document Server

    Ladikas, Miltos

    2004-01-01

    This book summarises the results of the project TAMI (Technology Assessment in Europe; between Method and Impact). This was a two-year project that brought together the main institutes of technology assessment in Europe, both parliamentary and non-parliamentary. TAMI created a structured dialogue between technology assessment experts and policymakers on current methodologies and their impact on policymaking. The TAMI team explored and assessed the whole spectrum of methodologies from the "classical" to the "interactive/participatory" and "communicative," identified good practices in project implementation and set the stage for impact evaluation based on objective criteria. Finally this report offers a series of policy recommendations based on the findings of the project. Science, Society and Policy, are three areas that technology assessment functions within and works for; this book is an attempt to improve the interaction amongst them for a more socially and economically sustainable Science and Technology p...