WorldWideScience

Sample records for policy impact model

  1. Modelling Options for Policy Impact Analysis on African Dairy Farms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oghaiki Asaah NDAMBI

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Studies on the priorities for agricultural research in Eastern and CentralAfrica concluded that milk is the most important commodity for research anddevelopment in the region, based on its potential contribution to the agriculturalGDP. It has been presumed that, the right policies, marketing systems and technicalsupport must be sought for dairy development in Africa. In order to determine theright development pattern, appropriate analytical tools must be applied. The TIPICAL(Technology Impact Policy Impact model was used to analyse the impact ofdifferent policies on two typical dairy farming systems in Uganda, which accountfor more than 70% of milk produced in the country. Seven influential policy areaswere also identified: provision of veterinary services, consumption promotion,marketing promotion, input provision, credit access improvement, milk qualityimprovement and genetic improvement. In general, the policy impacts are very littleon farms with local cows but can be magnified up to threefold, if the farms havegraded cows. Policies which improve farmers’ accessibility to markets have thegreatest impacts. The results obtained from this model were compared to thoseusing the EXTRAPOLATE model. This comparison shows that both models couldcomplement each other in analysing policy impacts on African dairy farms.However, differences in results from the models indicate that more focus should bemade on farmers’ willingness to adopt new technology.

  2. Modeling the impacts of environmental policies on agricultural imports

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Larson, B.A.; Scatasta, S.

    2005-01-01

    For current policy debates in agricultural and food industries, policy analysts need to evaluate the impacts of how proposed changes in domestic environmental regulations may alter agricultural trade in the future. Given the industry-specific nature of many policies issues, analysts need sector and

  3. On the development and use of farm models for policy impact assessment in the European Union – A review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, Pytrik; Janssen, Sander; Jansen, Jacques; Ittersum, van Martin K.

    2018-01-01

    Farm models are potentially relevant tools for policy impact assessment. Governments and international organizations use impact assessment (IA) as an ex-ante policy process and procedure to evaluate impacts of policy options as part of the introduction of new policies. IA is increasingly used. This

  4. Implementing parallel spreadsheet models for health policy decisions: The impact of unintentional errors on model projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Stephanie L; Bono, Rose S; Nash, Denis; Kimmel, April D

    2018-01-01

    Spreadsheet software is increasingly used to implement systems science models informing health policy decisions, both in academia and in practice where technical capacity may be limited. However, spreadsheet models are prone to unintentional errors that may not always be identified using standard error-checking techniques. Our objective was to illustrate, through a methodologic case study analysis, the impact of unintentional errors on model projections by implementing parallel model versions. We leveraged a real-world need to revise an existing spreadsheet model designed to inform HIV policy. We developed three parallel versions of a previously validated spreadsheet-based model; versions differed by the spreadsheet cell-referencing approach (named single cells; column/row references; named matrices). For each version, we implemented three model revisions (re-entry into care; guideline-concordant treatment initiation; immediate treatment initiation). After standard error-checking, we identified unintentional errors by comparing model output across the three versions. Concordant model output across all versions was considered error-free. We calculated the impact of unintentional errors as the percentage difference in model projections between model versions with and without unintentional errors, using +/-5% difference to define a material error. We identified 58 original and 4,331 propagated unintentional errors across all model versions and revisions. Over 40% (24/58) of original unintentional errors occurred in the column/row reference model version; most (23/24) were due to incorrect cell references. Overall, >20% of model spreadsheet cells had material unintentional errors. When examining error impact along the HIV care continuum, the percentage difference between versions with and without unintentional errors ranged from +3% to +16% (named single cells), +26% to +76% (column/row reference), and 0% (named matrices). Standard error-checking techniques may not

  5. Parameter uncertainty in CGE Modeling of the environmental impacts of economic policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abler, D.G.; Shortle, J.S. [Agricultural Economics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (United States); Rodriguez, A.G. [University of Costa Rica, San Jose (Costa Rica)

    1999-07-01

    This study explores the role of parameter uncertainty in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling of the environmental impacts of macroeconomic and sectoral policies, using Costa Rica as a case for study. A CGE model is constructed which includes eight environmental indicators covering deforestation, pesticides, overfishing, hazardous wastes, inorganic wastes, organic wastes, greenhouse gases, and air pollution. The parameters are treated as random variables drawn from prespecified distributions. Evaluation of each policy option consists of a Monte Carlo experiment. The impacts of the policy options on the environmental indicators are relatively robust to different parameter values, in spite of the wide range of parameter values employed. 33 refs.

  6. Parameter uncertainty in CGE Modeling of the environmental impacts of economic policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abler, D.G.; Shortle, J.S.; Rodriguez, A.G.

    1999-01-01

    This study explores the role of parameter uncertainty in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling of the environmental impacts of macroeconomic and sectoral policies, using Costa Rica as a case for study. A CGE model is constructed which includes eight environmental indicators covering deforestation, pesticides, overfishing, hazardous wastes, inorganic wastes, organic wastes, greenhouse gases, and air pollution. The parameters are treated as random variables drawn from prespecified distributions. Evaluation of each policy option consists of a Monte Carlo experiment. The impacts of the policy options on the environmental indicators are relatively robust to different parameter values, in spite of the wide range of parameter values employed. 33 refs

  7. Possible ecosystem impacts of applying maximum sustainable yield policy in food chain models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Bapan; Kar, T K

    2013-07-21

    This paper describes the possible impacts of maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and maximum sustainable total yield (MSTY) policy in ecosystems. In general it is observed that exploitation at MSY (of single species) or MSTY (of multispecies) level may cause the extinction of several species. In particular, for traditional prey-predator system, fishing under combined harvesting effort at MSTY (if it exists) level may be a sustainable policy, but if MSTY does not exist then it is due to the extinction of the predator species only. In generalist prey-predator system, harvesting of any one of the species at MSY level is always a sustainable policy, but harvesting of both the species at MSTY level may or may not be a sustainable policy. In addition, we have also investigated the MSY and MSTY policy in a traditional tri-trophic and four trophic food chain models. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. An Economic Model of Brazil’s Ethanol-Sugar Markets and Impacts of Fuel Policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drabik, D.; Gorter, de H.; Just, D.R.; Timilsina, G.R.

    2014-01-01

    We develop an economic model of flex plants, export demands and two domestic fuel demand curves: E25, a 25 percent blend of ethanol with gasoline consumed by conventional cars, and E100, ethanol consumed only by flex cars. This allows us to analyze the market impacts of specific policies, namely the

  9. The Impact of State Legislation and Model Policies on Bullying in Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry, Amanda

    2018-01-01

    Background: The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of the coverage of state legislation and the expansiveness ratings of state model policies on the state-level prevalence of bullying in schools. Methods: The state-level prevalence of bullying in schools was based on cross-sectional data from the 2013 High School Youth Risk Behavior…

  10. Alternative policy impacts on US GHG emissions and energy security: A hybrid modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarica, Kemal; Tyner, Wallace E.

    2013-01-01

    This study addresses the possible impacts of energy and climate policies, namely corporate average fleet efficiency (CAFE) standard, renewable fuel standard (RFS) and clean energy standard (CES), and an economy wide equivalent carbon tax on GHG emissions in the US to the year 2045. Bottom–up and top–down modeling approaches find widespread use in energy economic modeling and policy analysis, in which they differ mainly with respect to the emphasis placed on technology of the energy system and/or the comprehensiveness of endogenous market adjustments. For this study, we use a hybrid energy modeling approach, MARKAL–Macro, that combines the characteristics of two divergent approaches, in order to investigate and quantify the cost of climate policies for the US and an equivalent carbon tax. The approach incorporates Macro-economic feedbacks through a single sector neoclassical growth model while maintaining sectoral and technological detail of the bottom–up optimization framework with endogenous aggregated energy demand. Our analysis is done for two important objectives of the US energy policy: GHG reduction and increased energy security. Our results suggest that the emission tax achieves results quite similar to the CES policy but very different results in the transportation sector. The CAFE standard and RFS are more expensive than a carbon tax for emission reductions. However, the CAFE standard and RFS are much more efficient at achieving crude oil import reductions. The GDP losses are 2.0% and 1.2% relative to the base case for the policy case and carbon tax. That difference may be perceived as being small given the increased energy security gained from the CAFE and RFS policy measures and the uncertainty inherent in this type of analysis. - Highlights: • Evaluates US impacts of three energy/climate policies and a carbon tax (CT) • Analysis done with bottom–up MARKAL model coupled with a macro model • Electricity clean energy standard very close to

  11. Report on modelling the macroeconomic competitiveness impacts of EU climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    This report details the results of a study carried out by Oxford Economics on the macroeconomic impacts of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on competitiveness in different sectors and different Member States. An economic model was used to assess the impacts of carbon pricing, building on previous work that looked at the effects on the UK economy. The model was used to estimate the impact on competitiveness and output associated with various carbon prices and assumptions for the proposed third EU ETS trading period (2013-2023) by sector for all countries. The model covered 30 sectors for each of the 27 EU Member states plus the USA, Japan and China. The report describes the EU model methodology (direct cost effects, second-round cost effects, cost effects without substitution, cost effects after substitution, pass through to prices, and output effects) and the key results in terms of: impacts of carbon-reduction policies unilateral EU action, sectoral impacts, electricity generation sector only; the non-power sector in the ETS; global action; developed world action; and a summary across all scenarios. The three annexes set out the UK Energy Industry Model (UKEIM), model equations for the EU-wide model and modelling assumptions for electricity generation

  12. TIME Impact - a new user-friendly tuberculosis (TB) model to inform TB policy decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houben, R M G J; Lalli, M; Sumner, T; Hamilton, M; Pedrazzoli, D; Bonsu, F; Hippner, P; Pillay, Y; Kimerling, M; Ahmedov, S; Pretorius, C; White, R G

    2016-03-24

    Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from infectious disease worldwide, predominantly affecting low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where resources are limited. As such, countries need to be able to choose the most efficient interventions for their respective setting. Mathematical models can be valuable tools to inform rational policy decisions and improve resource allocation, but are often unavailable or inaccessible for LMICs, particularly in TB. We developed TIME Impact, a user-friendly TB model that enables local capacity building and strengthens country-specific policy discussions to inform support funding applications at the (sub-)national level (e.g. Ministry of Finance) or to international donors (e.g. the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria).TIME Impact is an epidemiological transmission model nested in TIME, a set of TB modelling tools available for free download within the widely-used Spectrum software. The TIME Impact model reflects key aspects of the natural history of TB, with additional structure for HIV/ART, drug resistance, treatment history and age. TIME Impact enables national TB programmes (NTPs) and other TB policymakers to better understand their own TB epidemic, plan their response, apply for funding and evaluate the implementation of the response.The explicit aim of TIME Impact's user-friendly interface is to enable training of local and international TB experts towards independent use. During application of TIME Impact, close involvement of the NTPs and other local partners also builds critical understanding of the modelling methods, assumptions and limitations inherent to modelling. This is essential to generate broad country-level ownership of the modelling data inputs and results. In turn, it stimulates discussions and a review of the current evidence and assumptions, strengthening the decision-making process in general.TIME Impact has been effectively applied in a variety of settings. In South Africa, it

  13. Evaluating the impact of strategic personnel policies using a MILP model: The public university case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Torre, R. de la; Lusa, A.; Mateo, M.

    2016-07-01

    Purpose: The main purpose of the paper is to evaluate the impact of diverse personnel policies around personnel promotion in the design of the strategic staff plan for a public university. The strategic staff planning consists in the determination of the size and composition of the workforce for an organization. Design/methodology/approach: The staff planning is solved using a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model. The MILP model represents the organizational structure of the university, the personnel categories and capacity decisions, the demand requirements, the required service level and budget restrictions. All these aspects are translated into a set of data, as well as the parameters and constraints building up the mathematical model for optimization. The required data for the model is adopted from a Spanish public university. Findings: The development of appropriate policies for personnel promotion can effectively reduce the number of dismissals while proposing a transition towards different preferable workforce structures in the university. Research limitations/implications: The long term staff plan for the university is solved by the MILP model considering a time horizon of 8 years. For this time horizon, the required input data is derived from current data of the university. Different scenarios are proposed considering different temporal trends for input data, such as in demand and admissible promotional ratios for workers. Originality/value: The literature review reports a lack of formalized procedures for staff planning in universities taking into account, at the same time, the regulations on hiring, dismissals, promotions and the workforce heterogeneity, all considered to optimize workforce size and composition addressing not only an economic criteria, but also the required workforce expertise and the quality in the service offered. This paper adopts a formalized procedure developed by the authors in previous works, and exploits it to assess the

  14. Evaluating the impact of strategic personnel policies using a MILP model: The public university case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torre, R. de la; Lusa, A.; Mateo, M.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The main purpose of the paper is to evaluate the impact of diverse personnel policies around personnel promotion in the design of the strategic staff plan for a public university. The strategic staff planning consists in the determination of the size and composition of the workforce for an organization. Design/methodology/approach: The staff planning is solved using a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model. The MILP model represents the organizational structure of the university, the personnel categories and capacity decisions, the demand requirements, the required service level and budget restrictions. All these aspects are translated into a set of data, as well as the parameters and constraints building up the mathematical model for optimization. The required data for the model is adopted from a Spanish public university. Findings: The development of appropriate policies for personnel promotion can effectively reduce the number of dismissals while proposing a transition towards different preferable workforce structures in the university. Research limitations/implications: The long term staff plan for the university is solved by the MILP model considering a time horizon of 8 years. For this time horizon, the required input data is derived from current data of the university. Different scenarios are proposed considering different temporal trends for input data, such as in demand and admissible promotional ratios for workers. Originality/value: The literature review reports a lack of formalized procedures for staff planning in universities taking into account, at the same time, the regulations on hiring, dismissals, promotions and the workforce heterogeneity, all considered to optimize workforce size and composition addressing not only an economic criteria, but also the required workforce expertise and the quality in the service offered. This paper adopts a formalized procedure developed by the authors in previous works, and exploits it to assess the

  15. Impact of policies regulating foreign physician migration to Switzerland: a modelling case study in anaesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haller, Guy; Combescure, Christophe; Mamie, Chantal; Zoccatelli, Davide; Clergue, François

    2015-05-22

    Several countries have developed policies that restrict or limit duration of stay, clinical privileges or the number of residency permits allocated to migrating physicians. Switzerland is currently preparing a new law limiting overall foreign immigration. The impact of such restrictive policies is currently unknown. In a case study of anaesthesia care in Switzerland we modelled, trends in the size of physicians' workforce until 2024, following the implementation of a strict quota policy for foreign medical trainees. We developed a computer-based Markov model with Monte-Carlo simulations to project, in the context of a strict quota policy for foreign trainees, supply and demand for anaesthesia positions until 2024. We used data from a cross-sectional study performed in the French- and Italian-speaking cantons of Switzerland and the Health dataset from the OECD. With 8 to 12 (95% CI 4-20) anaesthetists retiring per year, the implementation of strict quotas of foreign graduates would result in a 38% decrease in the number of anaesthetists in intermediary (senior registrars) positions by 2024. This decrease would be particularly important in district hospitals where nearly half (49%) of the non-Swiss anaesthetists are practising. Swiss graduates are unlikely to balance the shortage. Despite efforts by Swiss universities to increase the number of medical graduates, their number has dropped from 10.5 to 9.7/100 000 inhabitants between 2000 and 2012, due to the growth of the population. This case study in Latin Switzerland shows that a restrictive policy limiting foreign immigration of trainees would result in a major deficit in the number of anaesthetists available to meet population needs. These aspects should be carefully considered when countries develop restrictions and limitations of foreign immigration.

  16. Modeling the Impacts of Changes in Freight Demand, Infrastructure Improvements and Policy Measures on a Metropolitan Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    In this research, a policy framework was developed and used as a tool to determine the impacts of change in truck traffic on a regional level as a result of policy change. To achieve the objective, three demand models were used in the framework which...

  17. Current use of impact models for agri-environment schemes and potential for improvements of policy design and assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Primdahl, Jørgen; Vesterager, Jens Peter; Finn, John A; Vlahos, George; Kristensen, Lone; Vejre, Henrik

    2010-06-01

    Agri-Environment Schemes (AES) to maintain or promote environmentally-friendly farming practices were implemented on about 25% of all agricultural land in the EU by 2002. This article analyses and discusses the actual and potential use of impact models in supporting the design, implementation and evaluation of AES. Impact models identify and establish the causal relationships between policy objectives and policy outcomes. We review and discuss the role of impact models at different stages in the AES policy process, and present results from a survey of impact models underlying 60 agri-environmental schemes in seven EU member states. We distinguished among three categories of impact models (quantitative, qualitative or common sense), depending on the degree of evidence in the formal scheme description, additional documents, or key person interviews. The categories of impact models used mainly depended on whether scheme objectives were related to natural resources, biodiversity or landscape. A higher proportion of schemes dealing with natural resources (primarily water) were based on quantitative impact models, compared to those concerned with biodiversity or landscape. Schemes explicitly targeted either on particular parts of individual farms or specific areas tended to be based more on quantitative impact models compared to whole-farm schemes and broad, horizontal schemes. We conclude that increased and better use of impact models has significant potential to improve efficiency and effectiveness of AES. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Measuring the impact of urban policies on transportation energy saving using a land use-transport model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masanobu Kii

    2014-03-01

    This study demonstrates the applicability of a land-use transport model to the assessment of urban policies for building smart communities. First, we outline a model that explicitly formulates the actors' location-related decisions and travel behavior. Second, we apply this model to two urban policies – road pricing and land-use regulation – to assess their long-term impact on energy saving and sustainability using the case of a simplified synthetic city. Our study verifies that, under assumed conditions, the model has the capacity to assess urban policies on energy use and sustainability in a consistent fashion.

  19. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2010 - part 1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - integrated assessment modeling and valuation.

  20. Public R&D Policy Impact Evaluation:Propensity Score Matching and Structural Modeling Estimations

    OpenAIRE

    Ilbeigi, Alireza

    2017-01-01

    This dissertation is about public research and development (R&D) subsidies to support private firms doing innovative activities and quantitative impact evaluation of the policy on total factor productivity (TFP) change and additional R&D effort. Public R&D subsidization as a public R&D policy, beside different types of public interventions, has been widely used by governments to stimulate private R&D. These policies aim to fill the gap between the private and social rates of returns by encour...

  1. Stimulating fuelwood consumption through public policies: An assessment of economic and resource impacts based on the French Forest Sector Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caurla, Sylvain; Delacote, Philippe; Lecocq, Franck; Barkaoui, Ahmed

    2013-01-01

    Stimulating renewable energy is a crucial objective in view of tackling climate change and coping with future fossil fuel scarcity. In France, fuelwood appears to be an important source for the renewable energy mix. Using the French Forest Sector Model, our paper aims to assess the impacts of three policy options to stimulate fuelwood consumption: a consumer subsidy, a producer subsidy and a fixed-demand contract policy. We explored their impacts in terms of five groups of criteria: (1) forest resource dynamics; (2) variations in wood products prices and quantities consumed and produced; (3) trade balance; (4) budgetary costs; and (5) variations in agent surpluses. We show that no policy option is more desirable than another on the basis of all of these criteria and that trade-offs will determine which is the best policy option to be implemented. - Highlights: • We compare the bio-economic impacts of policies to boost fuelwood consumption in France. • We simulate a producer subsidy, a consumer subsidy and fixed public demand contracts. • We explore their impacts until 2020 with a dynamic model of the forest sector. • Producer subsidy reduces the trade balance deficit and decreases forest stock. • Consumer subsidy increases consumer welfare and public contracts reduce budgetary costs

  2. A harmonized calculation model for transforming EU bottom-up energy efficiency indicators into empirical estimates of policy impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horowitz, Marvin J.; Bertoldi, Paolo

    2015-01-01

    This study is an impact analysis of European Union (EU) energy efficiency policy that employs both top-down energy consumption data and bottom-up energy efficiency statistics or indicators. As such, it may be considered a contribution to the effort called for in the EU's 2006 Energy Services Directive (ESD) to develop a harmonized calculation model. Although this study does not estimate the realized savings from individual policy measures, it does provide estimates of realized energy savings for energy efficiency policy measures in aggregate. Using fixed effects panel models, the annual cumulative savings in 2011 of combined household and manufacturing sector electricity and natural gas usage attributed to EU energy efficiency policies since 2000 is estimated to be 1136 PJ; the savings attributed to energy efficiency policies since 2006 is estimated to be 807 PJ, or the equivalent of 5.6% of 2011 EU energy consumption. As well as its contribution to energy efficiency policy analysis, this study adds to the development of methods that can improve the quality of information provided by standardized energy efficiency and sustainable resource indexes. - Highlights: • Impact analysis of European Union energy efficiency policy. • Harmonization of top-down energy consumption and bottom-up energy efficiency indicators. • Fixed effects models for Member States for household and manufacturing sectors and combined electricity and natural gas usage. • EU energy efficiency policies since 2000 are estimated to have saved 1136 Petajoules. • Energy savings attributed to energy efficiency policies since 2006 are 5.6 percent of 2011 combined electricity and natural gas usage.

  3. Equity Impacts of Environmental Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Antonio M. Bento

    2013-01-01

    This article surveys recent literature on the equity impacts of environmental policy. We focus on studies that look at the distribution of costs and benefits of alternative environmental policies. We also examine potentially important trade-offs between efficiency and equity that arise in the context of environmental policy, as well as transition effects. In many of the applications surveyed here, environmental policies can be regressive. Strategies are discussed to reduce this regressivity t...

  4. Modeling the potential impacts of different radon policies for the U.S. housing stock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, M.D.; Ritchie, I.M.

    1995-01-01

    According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other public health agencies in the United States, radon may be the leading cause (along with passive smoking) of lung cancer deaths among nonsmokers. Radon is estimated to be the second leading cause of lung cancer death in smokers behind smoking-related lung cancer. EPA estimates that 7,000 to 30,000 lung cancer deaths each year are due to radon exposure. (It is implied that radon-related lung cancer deaths can be prevented by reducing radon levels below EPA's guideline levels). Current EPA radon policy is based on a strategy of education, the transfer of testing and remediation technologies to the public and private sectors, and recently proposed radon-resistant construction standards for new homes. This paper models the effectiveness of current proposed, and alternative policies for reducing radon risks in U.S. residential construction. The results of our analysis suggest that EPS's projections of 2,200 'lives saved annually' as a result of its current action level of 4 pCi/l will not be achieved with its current policy in the near future. Overall, the response of radon-related mortality to most policy options is delayed and flat due in part to the large number of houses with low radon levels and the long latency period between radon exposure and the development of cancer. The modeling results suggest that more aggressive smoking reduction programs may yield greater benefits in overall lung cancer mortality (but not reduced radon exposure) than most radon-related policies. (au)

  5. A dynamic simulation model for assessing the overall impact of incentive policies on power system reliability, costs and environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibanez-Lopez, A.S.; Martinez-Val, J.M.; Moratilla-Soria, B.Y.

    2017-01-01

    The liberalization of power markets has entailed dramatic changes in power system planning worldwide. The inception of new alternative technologies, smart grids and distributed generation and storage is expected to make system planning even more challenging. Government policies still play a major role in the evolution of a country's power generation mix, even in those countries with liberalized markets. This paper presents a System Dynamics model aimed at assessing the overall technical, economic and environmental impact of renewable energy incentives and capacity payment policies. The model has been used to simulate Spain's power industry in order to assess the impact of electric power policies with the goal of getting insights regarding how to achieve an optimum power generation mix. The main conclusions of the present paper are (i) the necessity of specific regulatory actions in Spain in order to keep adequate reliability levels, avoid price spikes and boom and bust investment cycles as well as to deploy specific technologies, (ii) the fact that capacity payments are a better instrument for keeping adequate reserve margins and avoiding power price spikes than renewable energy incentives and (iii) the evidence that both instruments entail additional system costs over the base case scenario. - Highlights: • A System Dynamics model of Spain's power generation mix is proposed. • The overall policy impact on system costs, environment and reliability is assessed. • Current policies are not enough to keep adequate reliability levels. • Capacity payments are an adequate instrument for guaranteeing system reliability. • RES incentives do not solve reliability issues and entail greater system costs.

  6. Impact of different policies on unhealthy dietary behaviors in an urban adult population: an agent-based simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Donglan; Giabbanelli, Philippe J; Arah, Onyebuchi A; Zimmerman, Frederick J

    2014-07-01

    Unhealthy eating is a complex-system problem. We used agent-based modeling to examine the effects of different policies on unhealthy eating behaviors. We developed an agent-based simulation model to represent a synthetic population of adults in Pasadena, CA, and how they make dietary decisions. Data from the 2007 Food Attitudes and Behaviors Survey and other empirical studies were used to calibrate the parameters of the model. Simulations were performed to contrast the potential effects of various policies on the evolution of dietary decisions. Our model showed that a 20% increase in taxes on fast foods would lower the probability of fast-food consumption by 3 percentage points, whereas improving the visibility of positive social norms by 10%, either through community-based or mass-media campaigns, could improve the consumption of fruits and vegetables by 7 percentage points and lower fast-food consumption by 6 percentage points. Zoning policies had no significant impact. Interventions emphasizing healthy eating norms may be more effective than directly targeting food prices or regulating local food outlets. Agent-based modeling may be a useful tool for testing the population-level effects of various policies within complex systems.

  7. A comparison of Capri and SEAMLESS-IFas Integrated Modelling Systems, Chapter 11 in Environmental and Agricultural Modelling: Integrated Approaches for Policy Impact Assessement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Britz, W.; Perez Dominguez, I.; Heckelei, T.

    2010-01-01

    SEAMLESS-IF and CAPRI are both integrated agricultural modelling systems for policy impact assessment at EU level, linking model components across scales and between the economic and bio-physical domains. However, the overall design, focus and representation of agricultural sub-systems vary between

  8. Contribution to the economic impact assessment of policy options to regulate animal cloning for food production with an economic simulation model

    OpenAIRE

    Koen Dillen; Emanuele Ferrari; Pascal Tillie; George Philippidis; Sophie Helaine

    2013-01-01

    The EU is currently evaluating different policy options towards the use of cloning or products derived from cloned animals in the food chain. This study presents a first attempt to quantify the likely effects of different policy scenarios on international trade and EU domestic production. In the context of the Impact Asessment process the JRC was requested to simulate via a modelling study the economic impact of selected policy options. Based on a literature review and the specific constra...

  9. Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael R. Guzy

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

  10. Modeling environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, W.E.; McDonald, L.A.

    1997-01-01

    The eight book chapters demonstrate the link between the physical models of the environment and the policy analysis in support of policy making. Each chapter addresses an environmental policy issue using a quantitative modeling approach. The volume addresses three general areas of environmental policy - non-point source pollution in the agricultural sector, pollution generated in the extractive industries, and transboundary pollutants from burning fossil fuels. The book concludes by discussing the modeling efforts and the use of mathematical models in general. Chapters are entitled: modeling environmental policy: an introduction; modeling nonpoint source pollution in an integrated system (agri-ecological); modeling environmental and trade policy linkages: the case of EU and US agriculture; modeling ecosystem constraints in the Clean Water Act: a case study in Clearwater National Forest (subject to discharge from metal mining waste); costs and benefits of coke oven emission controls; modeling equilibria and risk under global environmental constraints (discussing energy and environmental interrelations); relative contribution of the enhanced greenhouse effect on the coastal changes in Louisiana; and the use of mathematical models in policy evaluations: comments. The paper on coke area emission controls has been abstracted separately for the IEA Coal Research CD-ROM

  11. An Integrated Framework for Modeling Air Carrier Behavior, Policy, and Impacts in the U.S. Air Transportation System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horio, Brant M.; Kumar, Vivek; DeCicco, Anthony H.; Hasan, Shahab; Stouffer, Virginia L.; Smith, Jeremy C.; Guerreiro, Nelson M.

    2015-01-01

    The implementation of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) in the United States is an ongoing challenge for policymakers due to the complexity of the air transportation system (ATS) with its broad array of stakeholders and dynamic interdependencies between them. The successful implementation of NextGen has a hard dependency on the active participation of U.S. commercial airlines. To assist policymakers in identifying potential policy designs that facilitate the implementation of NextGen, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and LMI developed a research framework called the Air Transportation System Evolutionary Simulation (ATS-EVOS). This framework integrates large empirical data sets with multiple specialized models to simulate the evolution of the airline response to potential future policies and explore consequential impacts on ATS performance and market dynamics. In the ATS-EVOS configuration presented here, we leverage the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM), the Airline Evolutionary Simulation (AIRLINE-EVOS), the Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES), and the Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), all of which enable this research to comprehensively represent the complex facets of the ATS and its participants. We validated this baseline configuration of ATS-EVOS against Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) data and subject matter expert opinion, and we verified the ATS-EVOS framework and agent behavior logic through scenario-based experiments that explored potential implementations of a carbon tax, congestion pricing policy, and the dynamics for equipage of new technology by airlines. These experiments demonstrated ATS-EVOS's capabilities in responding to a wide range of potential NextGen-related policies and utility for decision makers to gain insights for effective policy design.

  12. Analysis of the economic impact of different Chinese climate policy options based on a CGE model incorporating endogenous technological change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Ke; Wang Can; Chen Jining

    2009-01-01

    Abatement cost is the main concern for climate change mitigation and the key factor for mitigation cost is technological change. This study established an integrated economic, energy, environmental, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model representing endogenous technological change for China's climate change policy analysis. This study analyzed and compared the economic impact of different approaches to mitigation commitments as well as the potential role of technological change in the formulation of mitigation targets and commitments, taking into account China's climate policy-making needs based on the current international climate negotiation process. The results show that, absolute emission limits similar to the Kyoto Protocol will seriously impede the future economic development of China, while the impact of an 80% reduction in carbon intensity, forecast for 2050 based on the 2005 level, is relatively small. Technological change can promote economic growth, improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon intensity per unit of output through the substitution of production factors. Consequently it can reduce marginal abatement cost and related GDP loss by mitigation. At the same time it can increase mitigation potentials and extend the emission reduction amount, showing that consideration of the impact of technological change when deciding the emission reduction targets is necessary.

  13. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2011 - part 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - estimating impacts and valuing damages on a sectoral basis.

  14. impacts of alternative farm policies on rural communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Michael Bowker; James W. Richardson

    1989-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to describe an LP/IO model for evaluating the economic impacts of alternative farm policies on rural communities and demonstrate its capabilities by analyzing the impacts of three farm policies on a rural community in Texas. Results indicate that in the noncrop sector, two groups of industries are most affected by farm policy. The first...

  15. Bio-economic modelling to assess the impact of water pricing policies at the farm level in the Oum Zessar watershed, southern Tunisia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeder, H.; Sghaier, M.; Louhchi, P.; Reidsma, P.

    2014-01-01

    For integrated assessment at farm level, the Farm System SIMulator model (FSSIM) was used. FSSIM is a bio-economic model developed for the European context, and was adapted and tested for Tunisian conditions to assess, ex-ante, impacts of water pricing policies at the farm level to the year 2015.

  16. Exploring policy impacts for servicising in product-based markets : A generic agent-based model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Veen, R.A.C.; Kisjes, K.H.; Nikolic, I.

    2017-01-01

    The shift to markets based on servicising, i.e. market-level transitions from product-based to service-based production and consumption patterns, may contribute to achieve absolute decoupling, i.e. the combined development of economic growth and environmental impact reduction. However, the

  17. Defining climate modeling user needs: which data are actually required to support impact analysis and adaptation policy development?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swart, R. J.; Pagé, C.

    2010-12-01

    Until recently, the policy applications of Earth System Models in general and climate models in particular were focusing mainly on the potential future changes in the global and regional climate and attribution of observed changes to anthropogenic activities. Is climate change real? And if so, why do we have to worry about it? Following the broad acceptance of the reality of the risks by the majority of governments, particularly after the publication of IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report and the increasing number of observations of changes in ecological and socio-economic systems that are consistent with the observed climatic changes, governments, companies and other societal groups have started to evaluate their own vulnerability in more detail and to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies. After an early focus on the most vulnerable developing countries, recently, an increasing number of industrialized countries have embarked on the design of adaptation and mitigation plans, or on studies to evaluate the level of climate resilience of their development plans and projects. Which climate data are actually required to effectively support these activities? This paper reports on the efforts of the IS-ENES project, the infrastructure project of the European Network for Earth System Modeling, to address this question. How do we define user needs and can the existing gap between the climate modeling and impact research communities be bridged in support of the ENES long-term strategy? In contrast from the climate modeling community, which has a relatively long history of collaboration facilitated by a relatively uniform subject matter, commonly agreed definitions of key terminology and some level of harmonization of methods, the climate change impacts research community is very diverse and fragmented, using a wide variety of data sources, methods and tools. An additional complicating factor is that researchers working on adaptation usually closely collaborate with non

  18. Towards increased policy relevance in energy modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worrell, Ernst; Ramesohl, Stephan; Boyd, Gale

    2003-07-29

    Historically, most energy models were reasonably equipped to assess the impact of a subsidy or change in taxation, but are often insufficient to assess the impact of more innovative policy instruments. We evaluate the models used to assess future energy use, focusing on industrial energy use. We explore approaches to engineering-economic analysis that could help improve the realism and policy relevance of engineering-economic modeling frameworks. We also explore solutions to strengthen the policy usefulness of engineering-economic analysis that can be built from a framework of multi-disciplinary cooperation. We focus on the so-called ''engineering-economic'' (or ''bottom-up'') models, as they include the amount of detail that is commonly needed to model policy scenarios. We identify research priorities for the modeling framework, technology representation in models, policy evaluation and modeling of decision-making behavior.

  19. Modelling impact of advertising and optimizing advertising policy: an application in recreation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    1981-01-01

    textabstractThis paper deals with the problem of the desirable level of advertising expenditure, the optimal distribution of this expenditure in time and the allocation over the media: TV, radio and newspaper for a recreation park in the Netherlands. Although the model id developed for the specific

  20. A multi-modal network approach to model public transport accessibility impacts of bicycle-train integration policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geurs, Karst Teunis; La Paix Puello, Lissy Cesarina; van Weperen, Sander

    2016-01-01

    In the Netherlands, the bicycle plays an important in station access and, to a lesser extent, in station egress. There is however fairly little knowledge in the potential effects of bicycle-train integration policies. The aim of this paper is to examine the impacts of bicycle-train integration

  1. Assessing the impact of policy interventions on the adoption of plug-in electric vehicles: An agent-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silvia, Chris; Krause, Rachel M.

    2016-01-01

    Heightened concern regarding climate change and energy independence has increased interest in plug-in electric vehicles as one means to address these challenges and governments at all levels have considered policy interventions to encourage their adoption. This paper develops an agent-based model that simulates the introduction of four policy scenarios aimed at promoting electric vehicle adoption in an urban community and compares them against a baseline. These scenarios include reducing vehicle purchase price via subsidies, expanding the local public charging network, increasing the number and visibility of fully battery electric vehicles (BEVs) on the roadway through government fleet purchases, and a hybrid mix of these three approaches. The results point to the effectiveness of policy options that increased awareness of BEV technology. Specifically, the hybrid policy alternative was the most successful in encouraging BEV adoption. This policy increases the visibility and familiarity of BEV technology in the community and may help counter the idea that BEVs are not a viable alternative to gasoline-powered vehicles. - Highlights: •Various policy interventions to encourage electric vehicle adoption are examined. •An agent based model is used to simulate individual adoption decisions. •Policies that increase the familiarity of electric vehicles are most effective.

  2. Estimating the Potential Impact of Tobacco Control Policies on Adverse Maternal and Child Health Outcomes in the United States Using the SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Simulation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, David; Mohlman, Mary Katherine; Zhang, Yian

    2016-05-01

    Numerous studies document the causal relationship between prenatal smoking and adverse maternal and child health (MCH) outcomes. Studies also reveal the impact that tobacco control policies have on prenatal smoking. The purpose of this study is to estimate the effect of tobacco control policies on prenatal smoking prevalence and adverse MCH outcomes. The US SimSmoke simulation model was extended to consider adverse MCH outcomes. The model estimates prenatal smoking prevalence and, applying standard attribution methods, uses estimates of MCH prevalence and relative smoking risks to estimate smoking-attributable MCH outcomes over time. The model then estimates the effect of tobacco control policies on adverse birth outcomes averted. Different tobacco control policies have varying impacts on the number of smoking-attributable adverse MCH birth outcomes. Higher cigarette taxes and comprehensive marketing bans individually have the biggest impact with a 5% to 10% reduction across all outcomes for the period from 2015 to 2065. The policies with the lowest impact (2%-3% decrease) during this period are cessation treatment, health warnings, and complete smoke-free laws. Combinations of all policies with each tax level lead to 23% to 28% decreases across all outcomes. Our findings demonstrate the substantial impact of strong tobacco control policies for preventing adverse MCH outcomes, including long-term health implications for children exposed to low birth weight and preterm birth. These benefits are often overlooked in discussions of tobacco control. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Kenya's health workforce information system: a model of impact on strategic human resources policy, planning and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waters, Keith P; Zuber, Alexandra; Willy, Rankesh M; Kiriinya, Rose N; Waudo, Agnes N; Oluoch, Tom; Kimani, Francis M; Riley, Patricia L

    2013-09-01

    Countries worldwide are challenged by health worker shortages, skill mix imbalances, and maldistribution. Human resources information systems (HRIS) are used to monitor and address these health workforce issues, but global understanding of such systems is minimal and baseline information regarding their scope and capability is practically non-existent. The Kenya Health Workforce Information System (KHWIS) has been identified as a promising example of a functioning HRIS. The objective of this paper is to document the impact of KHWIS data on human resources policy, planning and management. Sources for this study included semi-structured interviews with senior officials at Kenya's Ministry of Medical Services (MOMS), Ministry of Public Health and Sanitation (MOPHS), the Department of Nursing within MOMS, the Nursing Council of Kenya, Kenya Medical Practitioners and Dentists Board, Kenya's Clinical Officers Council, and Kenya Medical Laboratory Technicians and Technologists Board. Additionally, quantitative data were extracted from KHWIS databases to supplement the interviews. Health sector policy documents were retrieved from MOMS and MOPHS websites, and reviewed to assess whether they documented any changes to policy and practice as having been impacted by KHWIS data. Interviews with Kenyan government and regulatory officials cited health workforce data provided by KHWIS influenced policy, regulation, and management. Policy changes include extension of Kenya's age of mandatory civil service retirement from 55 to 60 years. Data retrieved from KHWIS document increased relicensing of professional nurses, midwives, medical practitioners and dentists, and interviewees reported this improved compliance raised professional regulatory body revenues. The review of Government records revealed few references to KHWIS; however, documentation specifically cited the KHWIS as having improved the availability of human resources for health information regarding workforce planning

  4. EPIC Forest LAI Dataset: LAI estimates generated from the USDA Environmental Policy Impact Climate (EPIC) model (a widely used, field-scale, biogeochemical model) on four forest complexes spanning three physiographic provinces in VA and NC.

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This data depicts calculated and validated LAI estimates generated from the USDA Environmental Policy Impact Climate (EPIC) model (a widely used, field-scale,...

  5. Renewable energy investment: Policy and market impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reuter, Wolf Heinrich; Szolgayová, Jana; Fuss, Sabine; Obersteiner, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Feedback of decisions to the market: large companies can have an impact on prices in the market. ► Multiple uncertainties: analysis of uncertainties emanating from both markets and environment. ► Policy analysis: impact of uncertainty about the durability of feed-in tariffs. -- Abstract: The liberalization of electricity markets in recent years has enhanced competition among power-generating firms facing uncertain decisions of competitors and thus uncertain prices. At the same time, promoting renewable energy has been a key ingredient in energy policy seeking to de-carbonize the energy mix. Public incentives for companies to invest in renewable technologies range from feed-in tariffs, to investment subsidies, tax credits, portfolio requirements and certificate systems. We use a real options model in discrete time with lumpy multiple investments to analyze the decisions of an electricity producer to invest into new power generating capacity, to select the type of technology and to optimize its operation under price uncertainty and with market effects. We account for both the specific characteristics of renewables and the market effects of investment decisions. The prices are determined endogenously by the supply of electricity in the market and by exogenous electricity price uncertainty. The framework is used to analyze energy policy, as well as the reaction of producers to uncertainty in the political and regulatory framework. In this way, we are able to compare different policies to foster investment into renewables and analyze their impacts on the market.

  6. The Impact of Funding Policies on Higher Education in Jamaica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkrumah-Young, Kofi K.; Huisman, Jeroen; Powell, Philip

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyses the changes in the higher education funding policies and resource allocation models of the Jamaican government in the period 1962-2003. Throughout these four decades, four different systems were in force. This paper focuses particularly on the arguments for the funding policies and models and the impact of the models on the…

  7. Projected Impact of Mexico's Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax Policy on Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease: A Modeling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Romero, Luz Maria; Penko, Joanne; Coxson, Pamela G; Fernández, Alicia; Mason, Antoinette; Moran, Andrew E; Ávila-Burgos, Leticia; Odden, Michelle; Barquera, Simón; Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten

    2016-11-01

    Rates of diabetes in Mexico are among the highest worldwide. In 2014, Mexico instituted a nationwide tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in order to reduce the high level of SSB consumption, a preventable cause of diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We used an established computer simulation model of CVD and country-specific data on demographics, epidemiology, SSB consumption, and short-term changes in consumption following the SSB tax in order to project potential long-range health and economic impacts of SSB taxation in Mexico. We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Mexico, a state transition model of Mexican adults aged 35-94 y, to project the potential future effects of reduced SSB intake on diabetes incidence, CVD events, direct diabetes healthcare costs, and mortality over 10 y. Model inputs included short-term changes in SSB consumption in response to taxation (price elasticity) and data from government and market research surveys and public healthcare institutions. Two main scenarios were modeled: a 10% reduction in SSB consumption (corresponding to the reduction observed after tax implementation) and a 20% reduction in SSB consumption (possible with increases in taxation levels and/or additional measures to curb consumption). Given uncertainty about the degree to which Mexicans will replace calories from SSBs with calories from other sources, we evaluated a range of values for calorie compensation. We projected that a 10% reduction in SSB consumption with 39% calorie compensation among Mexican adults would result in about 189,300 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 155,400-218,100) fewer incident type 2 diabetes cases, 20,400 fewer incident strokes and myocardial infarctions, and 18,900 fewer deaths occurring from 2013 to 2022. This scenario predicts that the SSB tax could save Mexico 983 million international dollars (95% UI $769 million-$1,173 million). The largest relative and absolute reductions in diabetes and CVD events occurred in the

  8. Projected Impact of Mexico's Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax Policy on Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease: A Modeling Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luz Maria Sánchez-Romero

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Rates of diabetes in Mexico are among the highest worldwide. In 2014, Mexico instituted a nationwide tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs in order to reduce the high level of SSB consumption, a preventable cause of diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD. We used an established computer simulation model of CVD and country-specific data on demographics, epidemiology, SSB consumption, and short-term changes in consumption following the SSB tax in order to project potential long-range health and economic impacts of SSB taxation in Mexico.We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Mexico, a state transition model of Mexican adults aged 35-94 y, to project the potential future effects of reduced SSB intake on diabetes incidence, CVD events, direct diabetes healthcare costs, and mortality over 10 y. Model inputs included short-term changes in SSB consumption in response to taxation (price elasticity and data from government and market research surveys and public healthcare institutions. Two main scenarios were modeled: a 10% reduction in SSB consumption (corresponding to the reduction observed after tax implementation and a 20% reduction in SSB consumption (possible with increases in taxation levels and/or additional measures to curb consumption. Given uncertainty about the degree to which Mexicans will replace calories from SSBs with calories from other sources, we evaluated a range of values for calorie compensation. We projected that a 10% reduction in SSB consumption with 39% calorie compensation among Mexican adults would result in about 189,300 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 155,400-218,100 fewer incident type 2 diabetes cases, 20,400 fewer incident strokes and myocardial infarctions, and 18,900 fewer deaths occurring from 2013 to 2022. This scenario predicts that the SSB tax could save Mexico 983 million international dollars (95% UI $769 million-$1,173 million. The largest relative and absolute reductions in diabetes and CVD events

  9. Projected Impact of Mexico’s Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax Policy on Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease: A Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Romero, Luz Maria; Penko, Joanne; Coxson, Pamela G.; Fernández, Alicia; Mason, Antoinette; Moran, Andrew E.; Ávila-Burgos, Leticia; Barquera, Simón; Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten

    2016-01-01

    Background Rates of diabetes in Mexico are among the highest worldwide. In 2014, Mexico instituted a nationwide tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in order to reduce the high level of SSB consumption, a preventable cause of diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We used an established computer simulation model of CVD and country-specific data on demographics, epidemiology, SSB consumption, and short-term changes in consumption following the SSB tax in order to project potential long-range health and economic impacts of SSB taxation in Mexico. Methods and Findings We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model–Mexico, a state transition model of Mexican adults aged 35–94 y, to project the potential future effects of reduced SSB intake on diabetes incidence, CVD events, direct diabetes healthcare costs, and mortality over 10 y. Model inputs included short-term changes in SSB consumption in response to taxation (price elasticity) and data from government and market research surveys and public healthcare institutions. Two main scenarios were modeled: a 10% reduction in SSB consumption (corresponding to the reduction observed after tax implementation) and a 20% reduction in SSB consumption (possible with increases in taxation levels and/or additional measures to curb consumption). Given uncertainty about the degree to which Mexicans will replace calories from SSBs with calories from other sources, we evaluated a range of values for calorie compensation. We projected that a 10% reduction in SSB consumption with 39% calorie compensation among Mexican adults would result in about 189,300 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 155,400–218,100) fewer incident type 2 diabetes cases, 20,400 fewer incident strokes and myocardial infarctions, and 18,900 fewer deaths occurring from 2013 to 2022. This scenario predicts that the SSB tax could save Mexico 983 million international dollars (95% UI $769 million–$1,173 million). The largest relative and absolute reductions in

  10. Evaluating the impact of climate policies on regional food availability and accessibility using an Integrated Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, E.; Cui, Y. R.; Waldhoff, S.

    2015-12-01

    Beyond 2015, eradicating hunger will remain a critical part of the global development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Efforts to limit climate change through both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use policies may interact with food availability and accessibility in complex and unanticipated ways. Here, we develop projections of regional food accessibility to 2050 under the alternative futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and under different climate policy targets and structures. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), for our projections. We calculate food access as the weighted average of consumption of five staples and the portion of income spend on those commodities and extend the GCAM calculated universal global producer price to regional consumer prices drawing on historical relationships of these prices. Along the SSPs, food access depends largely on expectations of increases in population and economic status. Under a more optimistic scenario, the pressures on food access from increasing demand and rising prices can be counterbalanced by faster economic development. Stringent climate policies that increase commodity prices, however, may hinder vulnerable regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa, from achieving greater food accessibility.

  11. Current use of impact models for agri-environment schemes and potential for improvements of policy design and asseessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Primdahl, Jørgen; Vesterager, Jens Peter; Finn, John A.

    2010-01-01

    Agri-Environment Schemes (AES) to maintain or promote environmentally-friendly farming practices were implemented on about 25% of all agricultural land in the EU by 2002. This article analyses and discusses the actual and potential use of impact models in supporting the design, implementation...... depended on whether scheme objectives were related to natural resources, biodiversity or landscape. A higher proportion of schemes dealing with natural resources (primarily water) were based on quantitative impact models, compared to whole-farm schemes and broad, horizontal schemes. We conclude...

  12. Innovative energy technologies in energy-economy models: assessing economic, energy and environmental impacts of climate policy and technological change in Germany.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schumacher, K.

    2007-04-18

    Energy technologies and innovation are considered to play a crucial role in climate change mitigation. Yet, the representation of technologies in energy-economy models, which are used extensively to analyze the economic, energy and environmental impacts of alternative energy and climate policies, is rather limited. This dissertation presents advanced techniques of including technological innovations in energy-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. New methods are explored and applied for improving the realism of energy production and consumption in such top-down models. The dissertation addresses some of the main criticism of general equilibrium models in the field of energy and climate policy analysis: The lack of detailed sectoral and technical disaggregation, the restricted view on innovation and technological change, and the lack of extended greenhouse gas mitigation options. The dissertation reflects on the questions of (1) how to introduce innovation and technological change in a computable general equilibrium model as well as (2) what additional and policy relevant information is gained from using these methodologies. Employing a new hybrid approach of incorporating technology-specific information for electricity generation and iron and steel production in a dynamic multi-sector computable equilibrium model it can be concluded that technology-specific effects are crucial for the economic assessment of climate policy, in particular the effects relating to process shifts and fuel input structure. Additionally, the dissertation shows that learning-by-doing in renewable energy takes place in the renewable electricity sector but is equally important in upstream sectors that produce technologies, i.e. machinery and equipment, for renewable electricity generation. The differentiation of learning effects in export sectors, such as renewable energy technologies, matters for the economic assessment of climate policies because of effects on international

  13. Simulating the impact of policy, energy prices and technological progress on the passenger car fleet in Austria-A model based analysis 2010-2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kloess, Maximilian; Mueller, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    This paper investigates the effects of policy, fuel prices and technological progress on the Austrian passenger car fleet in terms of energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To analyse these effects a simulation model is used. We model the car fleet from a bottom-up perspective, with a detailed coverage of vehicle specifications and propulsion technologies. The model focuses on the technological trend toward electrified propulsion systems and their potential effects on the fleet's energy consumption and GHG emissions. To represent the impact of prices and income on the development of the fleet, we combine the fleet model with top-down demand models. We developed two scenarios for the time frame 2010-2050, using two different sets of assumptions for regulatory development and conditions of increasing fossil fuel prices and continuous technological progress in vehicle propulsion technologies. The results indicate that material cuts in energy consumption and GHG emissions can be achieved with changes to the political framework for passenger cars. Appropriate taxation of fuels and cars can stabilise demand for individual motorised transport and lead to an improvement in vehicle efficiency by fostering the adoption of efficient vehicle propulsion technologies and low carbon fuels. - Highlights: → We present a simulation model for future energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in passenger car transport. → We develop scenarios up to 2050 assuming two different policy schemes. → Policy strongly affects energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in passenger car transport. → Policy can slow down growth in demand for passenger car transport. → Policy can promote the diffusion of more efficient propulsion technologies and low carbon fuels.

  14. Combination of equilibrium models and hybrid life cycle-input–output analysis to predict the environmental impacts of energy policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igos, Elorri; Rugani, Benedetto; Rege, Sameer; Benetto, Enrico; Drouet, Laurent; Zachary, Daniel S.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The environmental impacts of two energy policy scenarios in Luxembourg are assessed. • Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Partial Equilibrium (PE) models are used. • Results from coupling of CGE and PE are integrated in hybrid Life Cycle Assessment. • Impacts due to energy related production and imports are likely to grow over time. • Carbon mitigation policies seem to not substantially decrease the impacts’ trend. - Abstract: Nowadays, many countries adopt an active agenda to mitigate the impact of greenhouse gas emissions by moving towards less polluting energy generation technologies. The environmental costs, directly or indirectly generated to achieve such a challenging objective, remain however largely underexplored. Until now, research has focused either on pure economic approaches such as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and partial equilibrium (PE) models, or on (physical) energy supply scenarios. These latter could be used to evaluate the environmental impacts of various energy saving or cleaner technologies via Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology. These modelling efforts have, however, been pursued in isolation, without exploring the possible complementarities and synergies. In this study, we have undertaken a practical combination of these approaches into a common framework: on the one hand, by coupling a CGE with a PE model, and, on the other hand, by linking the outcomes from the coupling with a hybrid input–output−process based life cycle inventory. The methodological framework aimed at assessing the environmental consequences of two energy policy scenarios in Luxembourg between 2010 and 2025. The study highlights the potential of coupling CGE and PE models but also the related methodological difficulties (e.g. small number of available technologies in Luxembourg, intrinsic limitations of the two approaches, etc.). The assessment shows both environmental synergies and trade-offs due to the implementation of

  15. The International Impact of US Unconventional Monetary Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lutz, Chandler

    2015-01-01

    Using a structural factor-augmented vector autoregression model and a large data set of daily time series, we study the impact of US unconventional monetary policy on British and German financial markets. Our findings indicate that a surprise US unconventional monetary policy easing leads...

  16. The Regional Impact of Monetary Policy in Indonesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ridhwan, M.M.; de Groot, H.L.F.; Rietveld, P.; Nijkamp, P.

    2014-01-01

    This paper employs vector autoregressive (VAR) models to measure the impact of monetary policy shocks on regional output in Indonesia. We find substantial cross-regional variation in policy responses in terms of both magnitude as well as timing. Our work adds to the existing literature by providing

  17. The Disparate Labor Market Impacts of Monetary Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, Seth B.; Rodgers, William M., III

    2004-01-01

    Employing two widely used approaches to identify the effects of monetary policy, this paper explores the differential impact of policy on the labor market outcomes of teenagers, minorities, out-of-school youth, and less-skilled individuals. Evidence from recursive vector autoregressions and autoregressive distributed lag models that use…

  18. The relative impact of climate change mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity - An integrated assessment modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J. A.; Clarke, L. E.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Chaturvedi, V.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Kim, S.; Calvin, K. V.; Moss, R. H.

    2012-12-01

    We investigate the relative effects of climate emission mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally, by estimating both water availability and demand within a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We first develop a global gridded monthly hydrologic model that reproduces historical streamflow observations and simulates the future availability of freshwater under both a changing climate and an evolving landscape, and incorporate this model into GCAM. We then develop and incorporate technologically oriented representations of water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. To perform the water scarcity analysis at the grid scale, the global water demands for the six demand sectors are spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. The water scarcity index (WSI) compares total water demand to the total amount of renewable water available, and defines extreme water scarcity in any region as demand greater than 40% of total water availability. Using a reference scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 by 2095 and a global population of 14 billion, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demands for water exceed the total

  19. Explaining the policy impact of the 1991 and 2000 firework blasts in the Netherlands by the core of six policy change models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bressers, J.Th.A.; Lulofs, K.R.D.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of the aftermaths of two firework-blasts from a policy change perspective. The causes of both disasters were completely identical. Both disasters were extensively investigated and findings disseminated. After a 1991 explosion hardly any change in policy occurred while

  20. The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Scarborough

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Noncommunicable disease (NCD scenario models are an essential part of the public health toolkit, allowing for an estimate of the health impact of population-level interventions that are not amenable to assessment by standard epidemiological study designs (e.g., health-related food taxes and physical infrastructure projects and extrapolating results from small samples to the whole population. The PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl is an openly available NCD scenario model that estimates the effect of population-level changes in diet, physical activity, and alcohol and tobacco consumption on NCD mortality. The structure and methods employed in the PRIME are described here in detail, including the development of open source code that will support a PRIME web application to be launched in 2015. This paper reviews scenario results from eleven papers that have used the PRIME, including estimates of the impact of achieving government recommendations for healthy diets, health-related food taxes and subsidies, and low-carbon diets. Future challenges for NCD scenario modelling, including the need for more comparisons between models and the improvement of future prediction of NCD rates, are also discussed.

  1. Modeling the impact of watershed management policies on marine ecosystem services with application to Hood Canal, WA, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutherland, D. A.; Kim, C.; Marsik, M.; Spiridonov, G.; Toft, J.; Ruckelshaus, M.; Guerry, A.; Plummer, M.

    2011-12-01

    Humans obtain numerous benefits from marine ecosystems, including fish to eat; mitigation of storm damage; nutrient and water cycling and primary production; and cultural, aesthetic and recreational values. However, managing these benefits, or ecosystem services, in the marine world relies on an integrated approach that accounts for both marine and watershed activities. Here we present the results of a set of simple, physically-based, and spatially-explicit models that quantify the effects of terrestrial activities on marine ecosystem services. Specifically, we model the circulation and water quality of Hood Canal, WA, USA, a fjord system in Puget Sound where multiple human uses of the nearshore ecosystem (e.g., shellfish aquaculture, recreational Dungeness crab and shellfish harvest) can be compromised when water quality is poor (e.g., hypoxia, excessive non-point source pollution). Linked to the estuarine water quality model is a terrestrial hydrology model that simulates streamflow and nutrient loading, so land cover and climate changes in watersheds can be reflected in the marine environment. In addition, a shellfish aquaculture model is linked to the water quality model to test the sensitivity of the ecosystem service and its value to both terrestrial and marine activities. The modeling framework is general and will be publicly available, allowing easy comparisons of watershed impacts on marine ecosystem services across multiple scales and regions.

  2. Assessment of environmental impacts following alternative agricultural policy scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bárlund, I; Lehtonen, H; Tattari, S

    2005-01-01

    Abstract Finnish agriculture is likely to undergo major changes in the near and intermediate future. The ifuture policy context can be examined at a general level by strategic scenario building. Computer-based modelling in combination with agricultural policy scenarios can in turn create a basis for the assessments of changes in environmental quality following possible changes in Finnish agriculture. The analysis of economic consequences is based on the DREMFIA model, which is applied to study effects of various agricultural policies on land use, animal production, and farmers' income. The model is suitable for an impact analysis covering an extended time span--here up to the year 2015. The changes in land use, obtained with the DREMFIA model assuming rational economic behaviour, form the basis when evaluating environmental impacts of different agricultural policies. The environmental impact assessment is performed using the field scale nutrient transport model ICECREAM. The modelled variables are nitrogen and phosphorus losses in surface runoff and percolation. In this paper the modelling strategy will be presented and highlighted using two case study catchments with varying environmental conditions and land use as an example. In addition, the paper identifies issues arising when connecting policy scenarios with impact modelling.

  3. 77 FR 68776 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-16

    ... EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public..., Malaysia, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, South Africa, Spain, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Turkey, and United Kingdom. Interested parties may submit comments on this transaction by email to economic.impact...

  4. The impact of monetary policy on New Zealand business cycles and inflation variability

    OpenAIRE

    Nathan McLellan; Robert A Buckle; Kunhong Kim

    2004-01-01

    This paper uses the open economy structural VAR model developed in Buckle, Kim, Kirkham, McLellan and Sharma (2002) to evaluate the impact of monetary policy on New Zealand business cycles and inflation variability and the output/inflation variability trade-off. The model includes a forward-looking Taylor Rule to identify monetary policy and the impact of monetary policy is evaluated by deriving a monetary policy index using a procedure suggested by Dungey and Pagan (2000). Monetary policy ha...

  5. Policy Reform Impact on Food Manufacturing

    OpenAIRE

    Celikkol, Pinar; Dunn, James W.; Stefanou, Spiro E.

    2003-01-01

    The impact of agricultural policies and their reform is of major concern when addressing issues of growth, innovation and consolidation in the food manufacturing sector. Growth is one of the forces fueling the globalization of food manufacturing activities. Market- and policy-driven forces present a myriad of opportunities to influence growth and reorientation of patterns at the nexus where food manufacturing links the food system. The productivity and international competitiveness of the foo...

  6. Impact of Climate Change. Policy Uncertainty in Power Investment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blyth, W.; Yang, M.

    2006-10-01

    Climate change policies are being introduced or actively considered in all IEA member countries, changing the investment conditions and technology choices in the energy sector. Many of these policies are at a formative stage, and policy uncertainty is currently high. The objective of this paper is to quantify the impacts of climate change policy on power investment. We use Real Options Analysis approach in the study and model uncertain carbon price and fuel price with stochastic variables. The analysis compares the effects of climate policy uncertainty with fuel price uncertainty, showing the relative importance of these sources of risk for different technologies. This paper considers views on the importance of climate policy risk, how it is managed, and how it might affect investment behaviour. The implications for policymakers are analyzed, allowing the key messages to be transferred into policy design decisions. We found that in many cases, the dominant risks facing base-load generation investment decisions will be market risks associated with electricity and fuel prices. However, under certain conditions and for some technologies, climate policy uncertainty can be an important risk factor, creating an incentive to delay investment and raising investment thresholds. This paper concludes that government climate change policies to promote investment in low-carbon technologies should aim to overcome this incentive to delay by sending long-term investment signals backed up by strengthened international policy action to enhance domestic policy credibility

  7. Environmental policy implications of working from home: Modelling the impacts of land-use, infrastructure and socio-demographics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu Miao; Andrew Kelly, J.; Peter Clinch, J.; King, Fearghal

    2012-01-01

    Working from home is generally perceived as an effective means of reducing energy use and associated pollution from commuter transport. In order to consider the merits of mechanisms and policies to support a change in behaviour that results in greater take-up of home working, this paper applies energy consumption per commute calculations and a logit model using a case study of Ireland. In marked contrast with larger countries, the energy consumption per commute is relatively low in Ireland. Nonetheless, the analysis indicates that, on average, at least an average net saving of 9.33 kW h per day can be achieved where an individual converts to working from home, after deducting the home energy consumption associated with home working. We find that land use patterns, public transport networks, internet infrastructure, commute distances and socio-demographic characteristics can serve to influence rates of home working. Encouraging the higher and lower professional categories and those in the service sectors to work from home should be the highest priority in terms of energy and emissions reductions. Increased coverage of internet services and railway coverage will support higher rates of home working. Increased dispersion of residential, commercial and industrial areas serves to encourage greater home working. - Highlights: ► An average net energy saving of 9.33 kW h per day can be achieved by an individual changing to working from home. ► Land use patterns, public transport and internet infrastructure influence rates of home working. ► Commute distances and socio-demographic characteristics influence the take-up of home working. ► Encouraging home-working by higher and lower professionals and the service sectors is the priority.

  8. Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making

    OpenAIRE

    R?muzat, C?cile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, ?sa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aball?a, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and objective: With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project ‘European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast’ – http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm).Methods: A model was built to assess policy sc...

  9. From Predictive Models to Instructional Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rollinson, Joseph; Brunskill, Emma

    2015-01-01

    At their core, Intelligent Tutoring Systems consist of a student model and a policy. The student model captures the state of the student and the policy uses the student model to individualize instruction. Policies require different properties from the student model. For example, a mastery threshold policy requires the student model to have a way…

  10. Healthy Food Procurement Policies and Their Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niebylski, Mark L.; Lu, Tammy; Campbell, Norm R. C.; Arcand, Joanne; Schermel, Alyssa; Hua, Diane; Yeates, Karen E.; Tobe, Sheldon W.; Twohig, Patrick A.; L’Abbé, Mary R.; Liu, Peter P.

    2014-01-01

    Unhealthy eating is the leading risk for death and disability globally. As a result, the World Health Organization (WHO) has called for population health interventions. One of the proposed interventions is to ensure healthy foods are available by implementing healthy food procurement policies. The objective of this systematic review was to evaluate the evidence base assessing the impact of such policies. A comprehensive review was conducted by searching PubMed and Medline for policies that had been implemented and evaluated the impact of food purchases, food consumption, and behaviors towards healthy foods. Thirty-four studies were identified and found to be effective at increasing the availability and purchases of healthy food and decreasing purchases of unhealthy food. Most policies also had other components such as education, price reductions, and health interventions. The multiple gaps in research identified by this review suggest that additional research and ongoing evaluation of food procurement programs is required. Implementation of healthy food procurement policies in schools, worksites, hospitals, care homes, correctional facilities, government institutions, and remote communities increase markers of healthy eating. Prior or simultaneous implementation of ancillary education about healthy eating, and rationale for the policy may be critical success factors and additional research is needed. PMID:24595213

  11. 75 FR 28021 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-19

    ... EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of the United States has received an application for a $400 million long.... New Mexican production of ZSM will be sold in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and Brazil. Interested parties...

  12. 76 FR 79679 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-22

    ... EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of the United States has received an application for a $74 million long..., locomotives and railcars to Canada. The U.S. exports will enable the Canadian mining company to increase...

  13. Impact assessment of land use policies: Introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bezlepkina, I.; Brouwer, F.M.; Reidsma, P.

    2014-01-01

    This special issue is built around a series of impact assessments of land use policies and sustainable development in developing countries, carried out in the EU-funded project LUPIS (Sixth framework programme, Global Change and Ecosystems, Contract 36955). The project targeted at the development

  14. 77 FR 6563 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-08

    ... EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of the United States has received an application for a $1.74 billion loan... Australia. The U.S. exports will enable the Australian mining company to increase production by about 100...

  15. 76 FR 28225 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-16

    ... EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of the United States has received an application for a $47 million long... services to Australia. The U.S. exports will enable the Australian mining company to produce, on average...

  16. 78 FR 37539 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-21

    ... the export of approximately $74 million in U.S. semiconductor manufacturing equipment to a dedicated foundry in China. The U.S. exports will enable the dedicated foundry to increase existing 300mm (non-DRAM... EXPORT-IMPORT BANK Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export...

  17. 78 FR 34660 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-10

    ... guarantee to support the export of approximately $110.4 million worth of aluminum beverage cans and ends manufacturing equipment to China. The U.S. exports will enable the Chinese company to produce approximately 2.8... EXPORT-IMPORT BANK Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export...

  18. 78 FR 6322 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-30

    ... EXPORT-IMPORT BANK Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export..., France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Indonesia, Italy, Kenya, Malaysia, Philippines, Poland, Romania... comments on this transaction by email to economic[email protected] or by mail to 811 Vermont Avenue NW...

  19. 78 FR 30920 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-23

    ... EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of the United States has received an application for a $650 million long... Asian Markets including: China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. Interested parties may submit comments on this...

  20. Renewable resource policy when distributional impacts matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horan, R.D.; Shortle, J.S.; Bulte, E.H.

    1999-01-01

    The standard assumption in bioeconomic resource models is that optimal policies maximize the present value of economic surplus to society. This assumption implies that regulatory agencies should not be concerned with the distributional consequences of management strategies. Both contemporary welfare-theoretic and rent-seeking approaches suggests distributional issues are important in designing resource management policies. This paper explores resource management when the managing agency has preferences defined over the economic welfare of various groups with a direct economic interest in the use of resources. Policy schemes consistent with this approach are derived and compared with standard results. 42 refs

  1. Ecological and economic impacts of forest policies: interactions across forestry and agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.J. Alig; D.M. Adams; B.A. McCarl

    1998-01-01

    A linked model of the US forest and agriculture sectors was used to examine the economic and ecological impacts of two forest policies: a minimum harvest age limitation and a reduced public harvest policy. Simulated private responses to both policies indicate that landowners could undertake a range of adjustments to minimize their welfare impacts, but imposition of...

  2. Renewable heating: Perspectives and the impact of policy instruments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kranzl, Lukas; Hummel, Marcus; Müller, Andreas; Steinbach, Jan

    2013-01-01

    In the light of the EU directive for renewable energy (2009/28/EC) this paper deals with the question how various policy instruments could impact the development of renewable heating technologies. The paper applies the simulation model Invert/EE-Lab for the building related heat demand in selected European countries (Austria, Lithuania and United Kingdom). The resulting scenarios up to 2030 are compared to RES-Heat targets from literature, stakeholder consultation processes and the targets in the national renewable energy action plans submitted by EU Member States in 2010. The results demonstrate that use obligations for renewable heating can be effective in achieving RES-Heat market growth. However, in order to attain a balanced technology mix and more ambitious targets, policy packages are required combining use obligations with economic incentives and accompanying measures. Technology specific conclusions are derived. Moreover, conclusions indicate that the action plans are not always consistent with policy measures in place or under discussion. - Highlights: • Modeling of RES-Heat policies in the building sector. • Application of the model Invert/EE-Lab for the cases of AT, LT, UK. • RES-Heat use obligations are effective but should be integrated in policy packages. • The design of use obligations has substantial impact on the RES-H technology mix. • National renewable energy action plans are not always consistent with policies

  3. Comparing different policy scenarios to reduce the consumption of ultra-processed foods in UK: impact on cardiovascular disease mortality using a modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, Patricia V L; Baraldi, Larissa Galastri; Moubarac, Jean-Claude; Monteiro, Carlos Augusto; Newton, Alex; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin

    2015-01-01

    The global burden of non-communicable diseases partly reflects growing exposure to ultra-processed food products (UPPs). These heavily marketed UPPs are cheap and convenient for consumers and profitable for manufacturers, but contain high levels of salt, fat and sugars. This study aimed to explore the potential mortality reduction associated with future policies for substantially reducing ultra-processed food intake in the UK. We obtained data from the UK Living Cost and Food Survey and from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey. By the NOVA food typology, all food items were categorized into three groups according to the extent of food processing: Group 1 describes unprocessed/minimally processed foods. Group 2 comprises processed culinary ingredients. Group 3 includes all processed or ultra-processed products. Using UK nutrient conversion tables, we estimated the energy and nutrient profile of each food group. We then used the IMPACT Food Policy model to estimate reductions in cardiovascular mortality from improved nutrient intakes reflecting shifts from processed or ultra-processed to unprocessed/minimally processed foods. We then conducted probabilistic sensitivity analyses using Monte Carlo simulation. Approximately 175,000 cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths might be expected in 2030 if current mortality patterns persist. However, halving the intake of Group 3 (processed) foods could result in approximately 22,055 fewer CVD related deaths in 2030 (minimum estimate 10,705, maximum estimate 34,625). An ideal scenario in which salt and fat intakes are reduced to the low levels observed in Group 1 and 2 could lead to approximately 14,235 (minimum estimate 6,680, maximum estimate 22,525) fewer coronary deaths and approximately 7,820 (minimum estimate 4,025, maximum estimate 12,100) fewer stroke deaths, comprising almost 13% mortality reduction. This study shows a substantial potential for reducing the cardiovascular disease burden through a healthier food system

  4. Uncertainty and endogenous technical change in climate policy models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baker, Erin; Shittu, Ekundayo

    2008-01-01

    Until recently endogenous technical change and uncertainty have been modeled separately in climate policy models. In this paper, we review the emerging literature that considers both these elements together. Taken as a whole the literature indicates that explicitly including uncertainty has important quantitative and qualitative impacts on optimal climate change technology policy. (author)

  5. Energy-economic policy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanstad, Alan H.

    2018-01-01

    Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.

  6. Modeling of global biomass policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gielen, Dolf; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies

  7. Modeling of global biomass policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gielen, D.; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies. (Author)

  8. Business-as-Unusual: Existing policies in energy model baselines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strachan, Neil

    2011-01-01

    Baselines are generally accepted as a key input assumption in long-term energy modelling, but energy models have traditionally been poor on identifying baselines assumptions. Notably, transparency on the current policy content of model baselines is now especially critical as long-term climate mitigation policies have been underway for a number of years. This paper argues that the range of existing energy and emissions policies are an integral part of any long-term baseline, and hence already represent a 'with-policy' baseline, termed here a Business-as-Unusual (BAuU). Crucially, existing energy policies are not a sunk effort; as impacts of existing policy initiatives are targeted at future years, they may be revised through iterative policy making, and their quantitative effectiveness requires ex-post verification. To assess the long-term role of existing policies in energy modelling, currently identified UK policies are explicitly stripped out of the UK MARKAL Elastic Demand (MED) optimisation energy system model, to generate a BAuU (with-policy) and a REF (without policy) baseline. In terms of long-term mitigation costs, policy-baseline assumptions are comparable to another key exogenous modelling assumption - that of global fossil fuel prices. Therefore, best practice in energy modelling would be to have both a no-policy reference baseline, and a current policy reference baseline (BAuU). At a minimum, energy modelling studies should have a transparent assessment of the current policy contained within the baseline. Clearly identifying and comparing policy-baseline assumptions are required for cost effective and objective policy making, otherwise energy models will underestimate the true cost of long-term emissions reductions.

  9. Maternal death inquiry and response in India - the impact of contextual factors on defining an optimal model to help meet critical maternal health policy objectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kalter Henry D

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Maternal death reviews have been utilized in several countries as a means of identifying social and health care quality issues affecting maternal survival. From 2005 to 2009, a standardized community-based maternal death inquiry and response initiative was implemented in eight Indian states with the aim of addressing critical maternal health policy objectives. However, state-specific contextual factors strongly influenced the effort's success. This paper examines the impact and implications of the contextual factors. Methods We identified community, public health systems and governance related contextual factors thought to affect the implementation, utilization and up-scaling of the death inquiry process. Then, according to selected indicators, we documented the contextual factors' presence and their impact on the process' success in helping meet critical maternal health policy objectives in four districts of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal. Based on this assessment, we propose an optimal model for conducting community-based maternal death inquiries in India and similar settings. Results The death inquiry process led to increases in maternal death notification and investigation whether civil society or government took charge of these tasks, stimulated sharing of the findings in multiple settings and contributed to the development of numerous evidence-based local, district and statewide maternal health interventions. NGO inputs were essential where communities, public health systems and governance were weak and boosted effectiveness in stronger settings. Public health systems participation was enabled by responsive and accountable governance. Communities participated most successfully through India's established local governance Panchayat Raj Institutions. In one instance this led to the development of a multi-faceted intervention well-integrated at multiple levels. Conclusions The impact of several contextual

  10. Dynamic energy models and carbon mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilley, Luke A.

    In this dissertation I examine a specific class of energy models and their implications for carbon mitigation policies. The class of models includes a production function capable of reproducing the empirically observed phenomenon of short run rigidity of energy use in response to energy price changes and long run exibility of energy use in response to energy price changes. I use a theoretical model, parameterized using empirical data, to simulate economic performance under several tax regimes where taxes are levied on capital income, investment, and energy. I also investigate transitions from one tax regime to another. I find that energy taxes intended to reduce energy use can successfully achieve those goals with minimal or even positive impacts on macroeconomic performance. But the transition paths to new steady states are lengthy, making political commitment to such policies very challenging.

  11. Policy modeling for energy efficiency improvement in US industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worrell, Ernst; Price, Lynn; Ruth, Michael

    2001-01-01

    We are at the beginning of a process of evaluating and modeling the contribution of policies to improve energy efficiency. Three recent policy studies trying to assess the impact of energy efficiency policies in the United States are reviewed. The studies represent an important step in the analysis of climate change mitigation strategies. All studies model the estimated policy impact, rather than the policy itself. Often the policy impacts are based on assumptions, as the effects of a policy are not certain. Most models only incorporate economic (or price) tools, which recent studies have proven to be insufficient to estimate the impacts, costs and benefits of mitigation strategies. The reviewed studies are a first effort to capture the effects of non-price policies. The studies contribute to a better understanding of the role of policies in improving energy efficiency and mitigating climate change. All policy scenarios results in substantial energy savings compared to the baseline scenario used, as well as substantial net benefits to the U.S. economy

  12. The impact of anti-congestion policies on fuel consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and urban sprawl: Application of RELU-TRAN2, a CGE model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiramatsu, Tomoru

    RELU-TRAN (Regional Economy and Land Use and Transportation) is a numerically solvable general equilibrium model (Anas and Liu, 2007), which treats in a unified manner the regional economy, urban land use and urban personal transportation sectors. In this dissertation, the model is extended by adding the consumer-workers' choice of private vehicle type according to the vehicle's fuel economy, by treating congestion on local roads as well as on major roads and by introducing car fuel consumption as a function of congested vehicle speed. By making the extensions, the model becomes more suitable to analyze the fuel consumption and CO2 emission consequences of urban development. The model is calibrated and simulated for the Chicago metropolitan area. By adjusting the model to the longer time span gradually, the shortand long-run price elasticities of fuel consumption are examined. As the time span becomes longer, fuel consumption becomes more elastic with respect to gasoline price, but when technological improvements in car fuel economy over comparable time spans are introduced exogenously, then the elasticity of fuel with respect to gasoline price becomes similar to that estimated in the econometric literature. Comparative statics exercises show that, if travel by auto becomes relatively more attractive in terms of travel time or travel cost than travel by public transit, then the Chicago MSA becomes more sprawled in total developed land area, whereas if public transit travel becomes relatively more attractive, then the Chicago MSA becomes more centralized. To mitigate fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, relative effectiveness of quasi-Pigouvian congestion tolls, a fuel tax on gasoline, a cordon toll around the downtown and a downtown parking fee are tested. All of these policies successfully reduce the aggregate fuel consumption and CO2. The urban growth boundary (UGB) is an alternative policy tested by the model. The UGB directly makes the Chicago MSA more

  13. Projected Impact of Mexico?s Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax Policy on Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease: A Modeling Study

    OpenAIRE

    S?nchez-Romero, Luz Maria; Penko, Joanne; Coxson, Pamela G.; Fern?ndez, Alicia; Mason, Antoinette; Moran, Andrew E.; ?vila-Burgos, Leticia; Odden, Michelle; Barquera, Sim?n; Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten

    2016-01-01

    Background Rates of diabetes in Mexico are among the highest worldwide. In 2014, Mexico instituted a nationwide tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in order to reduce the high level of SSB consumption, a preventable cause of diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We used an established computer simulation model of CVD and country-specific data on demographics, epidemiology, SSB consumption, and short-term changes in consumption following the SSB tax in order to project potential long-...

  14. Preferential treatment and exemption policy impacts energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doelle, R.R.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on the preferential treatment and exemption policy of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) for State and State Agencies which creates an anticompetitive and restraint of trade attitude in California against the development of alternative energy resources by the private sector when such development competes directly with state owned power generation under the State Water and Central Valley Water Projects, particularly in the area of water and power supply. The existing state water policy fails to address the effects of global warming and the adverse potential of the greenhouse effect in California, i.e. rising tides can seriously impact sea water intrusion problems of the San Francisco Bay-Delta Area by not only flooding agricultural lands in the Delta and Central Valley, but impacting the supply of water to large population areas in Southern and Northern California, especially when coupled with drought conditions. The California investigative research results herein reported demonstrates the fallacy of a preferential treatment and exemption policy in a free market economy, especially when such policy creates the potential for excessive state budget burdens upon the public in the face of questionable subsidies to special interest, i.e., allowing the resulting windfall profits to be passed onto major utilities and commingled at the expense of public interest so as to undermine the financial means for development of alternative energy resources. The cited Congressional and State Legislative Laws which provide the ways and means to resolve any energy or water resource problems are only as good as the enforcement and the commitment by the executive branch of government and the lawmakers to up-hold existing laws

  15. Employing a CGE model in analysing the environmental and economy-wide impacts of CO2 emission abatement policies in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yahoo, Masoud; Othman, Jamal

    2017-04-15

    The impact of global warming has received much international attention in recent decades. To meet climate-change mitigation targets, environmental policy instruments have been designed to transform the way goods and services are produced as well as alter consumption patterns. The government of Malaysia is strongly committed to reducing CO 2 gas emissions as a proportion of GDP by 40% from 2005 levels by the year 2020. This study evaluates the economy-wide impacts of implementing two different types of CO 2 emission abatement policies in Malaysia using market-based (imposing a carbon tax) and command-and-control mechanism (sectoral emission standards). The policy simulations conducted involve the removal of the subsidy on petroleum products by the government. A carbon emission tax in conjunction with the revenue neutrality assumption is seen to be more effective than a command-and-control policy as it provides a double dividend. This is apparent as changes in consumption patterns lead to welfare enhancements while contributing to reductions in CO 2 emissions. The simulation results show that the production of renewable energies is stepped up when the imposition of carbon tax and removal of the subsidy is augmented by revenue recycling. This study provides an economy-wide assessment that compares two important tools for assisting environment policy makers evaluate carbon emission abatement initiatives in Malaysia. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Impacts of subsidy policies on vaccination decisions in contact networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hai-Feng; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Xu, Xiao-Ke; Small, Michael; Wang, Lin; Wang, Bing-Hong

    2013-07-01

    To motivate more people to participate in vaccination campaigns, various subsidy policies are often supplied by government and the health sectors. However, these external incentives may also alter the vaccination decisions of the broader public, and hence the choice of incentive needs to be carefully considered. Since human behavior and the networking-constrained interactions among individuals significantly impact the evolution of an epidemic, here we consider the voluntary vaccination on human contact networks. To this end, two categories of typical subsidy policies are considered: (1) under the free subsidy policy, the total amount of subsidy is distributed to a certain fraction of individual and who are vaccinated without personal cost, and (2) under the partial-offset subsidy policy, each vaccinated person is offset by a certain amount of subsidy. A vaccination decision model based on evolutionary game theory is established to study the effects of these different subsidy policies on disease control. Simulations suggest that, because the partial-offset subsidy policy encourages more people to take vaccination, its performance is significantly better than that of the free subsidy policy. However, an interesting phenomenon emerges in the partial-offset scenario: with limited amount of total subsidy, a moderate subsidy rate for each vaccinated individual can guarantee the group-optimal vaccination, leading to the maximal social benefits, while such an optimal phenomenon is not evident for the free subsidy scenario.

  17. Economic Impact Assessment of Alternative Climate Policy Strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemfert, C.

    2001-10-01

    This paper investigates the world economic implications of climate change policy strategies, especially the evaluation of impacts by an implementation of Clean Development Mechanisms, Joint Implementation and Emissions trading with a world integrated assessment model. Of special interest in this context are the welfare spill over and competitiveness effects that result from diverse climate policy strategies. In particular, this study elaborates and compares multi gas policy strategies and explores the impacts of the inclusion of sinks. Because of the recent decision of an isolated climate policy strategy by the United States of America, we examine the economic impacts of all world regions by a non cooperative and free rider position of the USA. It turns out that Clean Development Mechanisms and Joint Implementation show evidence of improvement in the economic development in the host countries and increase the share of new applied technologies. The decomposition of welfare effects demonstrates that the competitiveness effect including the spill over effects from trade have the strongest importance because of the intense trade relations between countries. Climatic effects have a significant impact within the next 50 years, cause considerable welfare losses to world regions and will intensify if some highly responsible nations like the USA do not reduce their emissions

  18. Preferences for distributional impacts of climate policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svenningsen, Lea Skræp; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    for such preferences is lacking. We design a discrete choice experiment that varies how climate policies affect the income of people living in the future in three geographical regions. The experiment is implemented on a representative sample of the Danish population and preferences are modelled in a latent class model...... expresses some form of distributional preferences, but shows positive preferences for costs, suggesting that responses could be influenced by strategic behaviour and over-signalling of commitment. Our results provide support for the inclusion of social preferences regarding distributional effects of climate...

  19. Economic Models as Devices of Policy Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lasse Folke

    2013-01-01

    Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role...... of models in Danish economic policy, where, from the 1970s onwards, executive public servants in this area have exclusively been specialists in model design. To understand changes in economic policy, this paper starts with a discussion of whether the notion of paradigm shift is adequate. It then examines...... the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept...

  20. 41 CFR 101-25.111 - Environmental impact policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Environmental impact...-General Policies § 101-25.111 Environmental impact policy. (a) From time to time, Congress enacts... Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (42 U.S.C. 4321). The objective of such legislation is, among other things, the...

  1. Policy harmonized approach for the EU agricultural sector modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. SALPUTRA

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Policy harmonized (PH approach allows for the quantitative assessment of the impact of various elements of EU CAP direct support schemes, where the production effects of direct payments are accounted through reaction prices formed by producer price and policy price add-ons. Using the AGMEMOD model the impacts of two possible EU agricultural policy scenarios upon beef production have been analysed – full decoupling with a switch from historical to regional Single Payment scheme or alternatively with re-distribution of country direct payment envelopes via introduction of EU-wide flat area payment. The PH approach, by systematizing and harmonizing the management and use of policy data, ensures that projected differential policy impacts arising from changes in common EU policies reflect the likely actual differential impact as opposed to differences in how “common” policies are implemented within analytical models. In the second section of the paper the AGMEMOD model’s structure is explained. The policy harmonized evaluation method is presented in the third section. Results from an application of the PH approach are presented and discussed in the paper’s penultimate section, while section 5 concludes.;

  2. Research That Counts: OECD Statistics and "Policy Entrepreneurs" Impacting on Australian Adult Literacy and Numeracy Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Stephen; Yasukawa, Keiko

    2016-01-01

    This paper analyses research that has impacted on Australia's most recent national policy document on adult literacy and numeracy, the National Foundation Skills Strategy (NFSS). The paper draws in part on Lingard's 2013 paper, "The impact of research on education policy in an era of evidence-based policy", in which he outlines the…

  3. Drug Policy: the "Dutch Model"

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ooijen-Houben, M.M.J.; Kleemans, E.R.

    2015-01-01

    Dutch drug policy, once considered pragmatic and lenient and rooted in a generally tolerant attitude toward drug use, has slowly but surely shifted from a primarily public health focus to an increasing focus on law enforcement. The "coffee shop" policy and the policy toward MDMA/ecstasy are

  4. IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION ON MACROECONOMIC POLICY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clementina IVAN-UNGUREANU

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization – the growing integration of economies and societies around the world – has been one of the most hotly-debated topics in international economics over the past few years. Rapid growth and poverty reduction in some countries that were poor 20 years ago have been positive aspects of globalization. But globalization has also generated significant international opposition to concerns about increased inequality and environmental degradation. There are many definitions of globalization. One of them could be: globalization is an ecosystem in which economic potential is no longer defined or contained by political and geographic boundaries. Economic activity has no bounds in a globalized economy. A globalized world is one where goods, services, financial capital, machinery, money, workers and ideas migrate to wherever they are most valued and can work together most efficiently, flexibly and securely. Where does economic policy come into play in this world? This paper presents some aspects of globalization and the impact on the new strategy of macroeconomics policy.

  5. FISCAL AUSTERITY POLICY IMPACT ON WELFARE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romina Pržiklas Družeta

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The ongoing global financial and economic crisis has caused a dramatic fall in growth, increased deficit, higher unemployment rates and strong price fluctuations. To achieve a balanced budget and reduce the national debt, the most of the national government have sacrificed the employment - one of the main indicators that reflect societies’ well-being and implemented fiscal austerity policy. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the literature on this topic and assess the short analysis of fiscal consolidation. Despite the ongoing debate and numerous studies no consensus about whether and when austerity is likely to be beneficial has been achieved. Further, there are still open issues to understand the impact of austerity on poverty and welfare because of the difficulty of defining poverty and welfare also. The main conclusion is that the emphasis should be placed on correctly defining austerity methodology in a broader economic and social context.

  6. Estimating the impact of alcohol policies on youth suicides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markowitz, Sara; Chatterji, Pinka; Kaestner, Robert

    2003-03-01

    Alcohol consumption has been identified as one of the most important risk factors for youth suicide. Previous research has shown a strong, empirical link between alcohol use and suicide. If alcohol use is a contributing factor in determining suicidal behaviors, then policies designed to reduce the alcohol consumption may succeed in reducing youth suicides as well. This paper looks at the role of alcohol-related policies in reducing completed suicides by American youths and young adults. This hypothesis comes from two well established relationships: i) the observed correlation between alcohol consumption and incidents of suicide, and ii) the negative relationship between the full price of alcohol and consumption. The alcohol policies examined are excise taxes on beer, measures of alcohol availability, and drunk driving laws. Data on completed suicides for each state in the United States are analyzed for the period 1976-1999. Negative binomial regressions are used to estimate a reduced form model of youth suicide. Suicides are analyzed by gender and age groups (ages 10-14, 15-19 and 20-24). The results indicate that increases in the excise tax on beer are associated with a reduced number of male suicides. This tax, however, has no impact on female suicides. Suicides by males ages 20-24 are positively related to the availability of alcohol, and negatively related to the presence of a 0.08 BAC (blood alcohol concentration) law and a zero tolerance law for drunk driving. Female suicides are not impacted by the availability of alcohol, although the drunk driving laws may impact suicides by teenage females. Policies designed to reduce alcohol consumption may have the unintended benefit of reducing suicides, particularly among young males. While this research shows that alcohol policies may be successful in reducing male suicides, such policies have little impact on female suicides. Future research should explore other potential types of policies and programs to reduce

  7. Investigating the impact of agrarian policies on conflict and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2011-07-14

    Jul 14, 2011 ... Investigating the impact of agrarian policies on conflict and peacebuilding ... tourism industry, defusing the conflict impact of relative land scarcity. ... the idea — flowing from the increasingly influential "Economic Theory of War" ...

  8. Optimal Policy in OG Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghiglino, Christian; Tvede, Mich

    for generations, through fiscal policy, i.e. monetary transfers and taxes. Both situations with and without time discounting are considered. It is shown that if the discount factor is suffciently close to one then the optimal policy stabilizes the economy, i.e. the equilibrium path has the turnpike property...

  9. Optimal Policy in OG Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghiglino, Christian; Tvede, Mich

    2000-01-01

    for generations, through fiscal policy, i.e., monetary transfers and taxes. Situations both with and without time discounting are considered. It is shown that if the discount factor is sufficiently close to one then the optimal policy stabilizes the economy, i.e. the equilibrium path has the turnpike property...

  10. "Entrepreneurship policy: Trade-offs and impact in the EU"

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murdock, Karen

    2012-01-01

    Based on the notion that trade-offs in public policies form the basis of the separation of managed and entrepreneurial economies; this paper investigates the impact of policy on actual entrepreneurship activity in these two categories of economies. Using data from 19 European Union member countries......, the impact that policy trade-offs in the goal, target, location and system of finance have on entrepreneurship activity is measured using ordinary least squares regression. The results indicate that while business regulation negatively impact entrepreneurship activity, the location of policy does not show...

  11. Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Frances C.; Diaz, Delavane B.

    2015-02-01

    Integrated assessment models compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained gross domestic product (GDP) growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth rates in the DICE model through two pathways, total factor productivity growth and capital depreciation. This damage specification, even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, substantially slows GDP growth in poor regions but has more modest effects in rich countries. Optimal climate policy in this model stabilizes global temperature change below 2 °C by eliminating emissions in the near future and implies a social cost of carbon several times larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of climate change impacts on economic growth, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages and GDP are three critical uncertainties requiring further research. In particular, optimal mitigation rates are much lower if countries become less sensitive to climate change impacts as they develop, making this a major source of uncertainty and an important subject for future research.

  12. The Heterogeneous Impacts of Groundwater Management Policies in the Republican River Basin of Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hrozencik, R. A.; Manning, D. T.; Suter, J. F.; Goemans, C.; Bailey, R. T.

    2017-12-01

    Groundwater is a critical input to agricultural production across the globe. Current groundwater pumping rates frequently exceed recharge, often by a substantial amount, leading to groundwater depletion and potential declines in agricultural profits over time. As a result, many regions reliant on irrigated agriculture have proposed policies to manage groundwater use. Even when gains from aquifer management exist, there is little information about how policies affect individual producers sharing the resource. In this paper, we investigate the variability of groundwater management policy impacts across heterogeneous agricultural producers. To measure these impacts, we develop a hydroeconomic model that captures the important role of well capacity, productivity of water, and weather uncertainty. We use the model to simulate the impacts of groundwater management policies on producers in the High Plains aquifer of eastern Colorado and compare outcomes to a no-policy baseline. The management policies considered include a pumping fee, a quantity restriction, and an irrigated acreage fee. We find that well capacity and soil type affect policy impacts but in ways that can qualitatively differ across policy type. Model results have important implications for the distributional impacts and political acceptability of groundwater management policies.

  13. Financing investments in renewable energy: the impacts of policy design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiser, Ryan H.; Pickle, Steven J.

    1998-01-01

    The costs of electric power projects utilising renewable energy technologies (RETs) are highly sensitive to financing terms. Consequently, as the electricity industry is restructured and new renewables policies are created, it is important for policymakers to consider the impacts of renewables policy design on RET financing. This paper reviews the power plant financing process for renewable energy projects, estimates the impact of financing terms on levelised energy costs, and provides insights to policymakers on the important nexus between renewables policy design and financing. We review five case studies of renewable energy policies, and find that one of the key reasons that RET policies are not more effective is that project development and financing processes are frequently ignored or misunderstood when designing and implementing renewable energy policies. The case studies specifically show that policies that do no provide long-term stability or that have negative secondary impacts on investment decisions will increase financing costs, sometimes dramatically reducing the effectiveness of the program. Within U.S. electricity restructuring proceedings, new renewable energy policies are being created, and restructuring itself is changing the way RETs are financed. As these new policies are created and implemented, it is essential that policymakers acknowledge the financing difficulties faced by renewables developer and pay special attention to the impacts of renewables policy design on financing. As shown in this paper, a renewables policy that is carefully designed can reduce renewable energy costs dramatically by providing revenue certainty that will, in turn, reduce financing risk premiums. (Author)

  14. Developing policy analytics for public health strategy and decisions-the Sheffield alcohol policy model framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennan, Alan; Meier, Petra; Purshouse, Robin; Rafia, Rachid; Meng, Yang; Hill-Macmanus, Daniel

    This paper sets out the development of a methodological framework for detailed evaluation of public health strategies for alcohol harm reduction to meet UK policy-makers needs. Alcohol is known to cause substantial harms, and controlling its affordability and availability are effective policy options. Analysis and synthesis of a variety of public and commercial data sources is needed to evaluate impact on consumers, health services, crime, employers and industry, so a sound evaluation of impact is important. We discuss the iterative process to engage with stakeholders, identify evidence/data and develop analytic approaches and produce a final model structure. We set out a series of steps in modelling impact including: classification and definition of population subgroups of interest, identification and definition of harms and outcomes for inclusion, classification of modifiable components of risk and their baseline values, specification of the baseline position on policy variables especially prices, estimating effects of changing policy variables on risk factors including price elasticities, quantifying risk functions relating risk factors to harms including 47 health conditions, crimes, absenteeism and unemployment, and monetary valuation. The most difficult model structuring decisions are described, as well as the final results framework used to provide decision support to national level policymakers in the UK. In the discussion we explore issues around the relationship between modelling and policy debates, valuation and scope, limitations of evidence/data, how the framework can be adapted to other countries and decisions. We reflect on the approach taken and outline ongoing plans for further development.

  15. EU climate policy up to 2020. An economic impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boehringer, Christoph [Department of Economics, University of Oldenburg (Germany); Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Loeschel, Andreas [Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Moslener, Ulf [KfW Development Bank, Frankfurt (Germany); Rutherford, Thomas F. [Center for Energy Policy and Economy (CEPE), ETH Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2009-07-01

    In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost. (author)

  16. EU climate policy up to 2020: An economic impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boehringer, Christoph, E-mail: boehringer@uni-oldenburg.d [Department of Economics, University of Oldenburg (Germany); Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Loeschel, Andreas [Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Moslener, Ulf [KfW Development Bank, Frankfurt (Germany); Rutherford, Thomas F. [Center for Energy Policy and Economy (CEPE), ETH Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2009-07-01

    In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost.

  17. EU climate policy up to 2020. An economic impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehringer, Christoph; Loeschel, Andreas; Moslener, Ulf; Rutherford, Thomas F.

    2009-01-01

    In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost. (author)

  18. Modelling skylarks (Alauda arvensis) to predict impacts of changes in land management and policy: development and testing of an agent-based model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Topping, Christopher John; Odderskær, Peter; Kahlert, Johnny Abildgaard

    2013-01-01

    of distribution and density, reproductive performance and seasonal changes in territory numbers. Data to support this was collected over a 13-year period and comprised detailed field observations of breeding birds and intensive surveys. The model was able to recreate the real world data patterns accurately......; it was also able to simultaneously fit a number of other secondary system properties which were not formally a part of the testing procedure. The correspondence of model output to real world data and sensitivity analysis are presented and discussed, and the model’s description is provided in ODdox format (a...... formal description inter-linked to the program code). Detailed and stringent tests for model performance were carried out, and standardised model description and open access to the source code were provided to open development of the skylark model to others. Over and above documenting the utility...

  19. Conceptual framework for describing selected urban and community impacts of federal energy policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morris, F.A,; Marcus, A.A.; Keller, D.

    1980-06-01

    A conceptual framework is presented for describing selected urban and community impacts of Federal energy policies. The framework depends on a simple causal model. The outputs of the model are impacts, changes in the state of the world of particular interest to policymakers. At any given time, a set of determinants account for the state of the world with respect to an impact category. Application of the model to a particular impact category requires: establishing a definition and measure for the impact category and identifying the determinants of these impacts. Analysis of the impact of a particular policy requires the following: identifying the policy and its effects (as estimated by others), isolating any effects that themselves constitute an urban and community impact, identifying any effects that change the value of determinants, and describing the impact with reference to the new values of determinants. This report provides a framework for these steps. Three impacts addressed are: neighborhood stability, housing availability, and quality and availability of public services. In each chapter, a definition and measure for the impact are specified; its principal determinants are identified; how the causal model can be used to estimate impacts by applying it to three illustrative Federal policies (domestic oil price decontrol, building energy performance standards, and increased Federal aid for mass transit) is demonstrated. (MCW)

  20. An evaluation model for low carbon island policy: The case of Taiwan's green transportation policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trappey, Amy J.C.; Trappey, Charles; Hsiao, C.T.; Ou, Jerry J.R.; Li, S.J.; Chen, Kevin W.P.

    2012-01-01

    Conserving energy and reducing carbon emissions have become the common responsibility of the international community. During the year 2010, the Taiwan government planned a four-year project budgeted at 300 million US dollars, called “The Penghu Low Carbon Island Development Project.” The policy objective is to use Penghu Island (population 85,000) as a test platform to evaluate new ways to conserve energy and reduce carbon emissions before attempting to replicate the policies on Taiwan Island. For Taiwan, a zero carbon island green transportation policy will regulate the total number of electric scooters, the total number of gasoline motorcycles, influence government subsidy incentives, and create the need for new motorcycle license issuing and control. These factors interact with each other to form a complex and dynamic system that impacts policy as well as the current way of life. In this study, a system dynamics approach is designed to construct a model for evaluating the green transportation policy on Penghu Island. Simulations are conducted to model green transportation system behavior and related policy effects in a smaller, controlled environment before creating policies for Taiwan Island that will impact the lives of over 23 million people. - Highlights: ► Provides an overview of Taiwan's Penghu Low Carbon Island Development Project. ► Develops a systems dynamics approach for green transportation policy assessment. ► Provides causal analysis of social, economic, and environmental factors. ► Demonstrates that the proposed policy cannot meet the CO 2 reduction goals. ► Alternative policies can be evaluated using the proposed approach.

  1. Climate change impacts on urban wildfire and flooding policy in Idaho: a comparative policy network perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindquist, E.; Pierce, J. L.

    2013-12-01

    Numerous frameworks and models exist for understanding the dynamics of the public policy process. A policy network approach considers how and why stakeholders and interests pay attention to and engage in policy problems, such as flood control or developing resilient and fire resistant landscapes. Variables considered in this approach include what the relationships are between these stakeholders, how they influence the process and outcomes, communication patterns within and between policy networks, and how networks change as a result of new information, science, or public interest and involvement with the problem. This approach is useful in understanding the creation of natural hazards policy as new information or situations, such as projected climate change impacts, influence and disrupt the policy process and networks. Two significant natural hazard policy networks exist in the semi-arid Treasure Valley region of Southwest Idaho, which includes the capitol city of Boise and the surrounding metropolitan area. Boise is situated along the Boise River and adjacent to steep foothills; this physiographic setting makes Boise vulnerable to both wildfires at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) and flooding. Both of these natural hazards have devastated the community in the past and floods and fires are projected to occur with more frequency in the future as a result of projected climate change impacts in the region. While both hazards are fairly well defined problems, there are stark differences lending themselves to comparisons across their respective networks. The WUI wildfire network is large and well developed, includes stakeholders from all levels of government, the private sector and property owner organizations, has well defined objectives, and conducts promotional and educational activities as part of its interaction with the public in order to increase awareness and garner support for its policies. The flood control policy network, however, is less defined

  2. Global climate change policies. An analysis of CDM policies with an adapted GTAP model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Shunli

    2004-01-01

    In the context of the relationships between spatial-economic interaction and global warming just discussed, this study aims to analyze the Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) policies from an economic point of view. The research question of this study is formulated as follows: What will be the impacts of clirnate change policies, in particular CDM policies, on the economic performance of (groups of) countries in our global economic system, taking spatial interaction and general equilibrium effects into account? The purpose of addressing the issue of economic performance for (groups of) countries in the economic system is not just to identify winners and losers from international treaties. Rather, winning or losing may even determine the implementation and willingness of individual countries to participate in international environmental treaties, as illustrated by the recent withdrawal of the US from the Kyoto Protocol. By analyzing the economic impacts of an international environmental treaty for individual (groups of) countries, the framework that will be used to analyze this research question may be useful to determine the attractiveness of some global environmental policies, both for the world as a whole and for individual (groups of) countries. The research question will be answered by dividing it into six subquestions: (1) What is the position of CDM policies in the broad context of climate policy regimes?; (2) How should the relationship between human behavior and the physical environment be ideally modeled from an economic perspective? (3) How should the spatial dimension be incorporated in this framework of interaction between the economic and ecological system?; (4) How can climate change issues be incorporated in general equilibrium models in general, and in GTAP-E (extension of the Global Trade Analysis Project) in particular?; (5) How can CDM policies be implemented in the GTAP-E model?; and (6) What are the impacts of these climate change policies on

  3. The impacts of carbon tax and complementary policies on Chinese economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Chuanyi; Tong, Qing; Liu, Xuemei

    2010-01-01

    Under the pressure of global warming, it is imperative for Chinese government to impose effective policy instruments to promote domestic energy saving and carbon emissions reduction. As one of the most important incentive-based policy instruments, carbon tax has sparked a lively controversy in China. This paper explores the impact of carbon tax on Chinese economy, as well as the cushion effects of the complementary policies, by constructing a dynamic recursive general equilibrium model. The model can describe the new equilibrium for each sequential independent period (e.g. one year) after carbon tax and the complementary policies are imposed, and thus describe the long-term impacts of the policies. The simulation results show that carbon tax is an effective policy tool because it can reduce carbon emissions with a little negative impact on economic growth; reducing indirect tax in the meantime of imposing carbon tax will help to reduce the negative impact of the tax on production and competitiveness; in addition, giving households subsidy in the meantime will help to stimulate household consumptions. Therefore, complementary policies used together with carbon tax will help to cushion the negative impacts of carbon tax on the economy. The dynamic CGE analysis shows the impact of carbon tax policy on the GDP is relatively small, but the reduction of carbon emission is relatively large. (author)

  4. Agri‐environmental Policies to Meet Consumer Preferences in Japan: An Economic‐Biophysical Model Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetsuya Uetake

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Promoting environmentally friendly farming products is crucial to meeting consumer demand. Although governments implement policy measures to improve the environmental performance of the agriculture sector, theirimpacts are difficult to assess. This study analyses the performance of agri‐environmental policies in Japan, by using the OECD’s policy impact model and reference level framework. In particular, it identifies the environmental impacts of three simulated agri‐environmental policies based on farms’ characteristics. The results suggest that a policy mix of regulation and an incentive payment would reduce environmental impacts, suggesting that targeted approaches could improve the cost‐effectiveness of agri‐environmental policies.

  5. IMPACT OF ROMANIAN HIGHER EDUCATION FUNDING POLICY ON UNIVERSITY EFFICIENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CRETAN Georgiana Camelia

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The issues of higher education funding policy and university operating efficiency are hot points on the actual public agenda worldwide as the pressures exercised upon the public resources increased, especially in the aftermath of the last economic crisis. Concerned with the improvement of the funding mechanism through which government allocates the public funds in order to meet the national core objectives within the area of higher education, the policy makers adjusted the funding policy by diversifying the criteria used in distributing the funds to public universities. Thus, the aim of this research is to underline both the impact and the consequences the public funding patterns of higher education have on the relative efficiency of public funded higher education institutions, across time. Moreover, the research conducted aims to determine whether the changes occurred within the Romanian public funding methodology of higher education institutions improved the relative efficiency scores of public funded universities, before and after the economic crisis of 2008. Thus, on one hand we have underlined the changes brought to the Romanian public funding mechanism of higher education during the years of 2007, 2009 and 2010 compared to the year of 2006, using the content analysis, and on the other hand we assessed and compared the relative efficiency scores of each selected public funded university using a multiple input - multiple output linear programming model, by employing the Data Envelopment Analysis technique. The findings of the research undertaken emphasized that a more performance oriented funding mechanism improves the efficiency scores of public universities. The results of the research undertaken could be used either by the policy makers within the area of higher education or by the administrative management of public universities in order to correlate the funding with the results obtained and/or the objectives assumed by both the

  6. Impact of EU agricultural policy on developing countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boysen, Ole; Jensen, Hans Grinsted; Matthews, Alan

    2016-01-01

    Despite substantial reforms, the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is still criticised for its detrimental effects on developing countries. This paper provides updated evidence on the impact of the CAP on one developing country, Uganda. It goes beyond estimating macro-level economic effects...... by analysing the impacts on poverty. The policy simulation results show that eliminating EU agricultural support would have marginal but nonetheless positive impacts on the Ugandan economy and its poverty indicators. From the perspective of the EU’s commitment to policy coherence for development, this supports...... the view that further reducing EU Agricultural support would be positive for development....

  7. Impact of Attendance Policy on Adult College Learners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Tracinal S.

    2014-01-01

    This qualitative evaluation focused on the problem of student attrition at a northern California college, its attendance policy, the policy's impact on previous students' decisions to persist in school, and on administrators' attempts to increase retention. The purpose for this study was to evaluate the participants' perceptions about their…

  8. Universal Basic Education Policy: Impact on Enrolment and Retention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iddrisu, Issah

    2016-01-01

    The universal basic education policy enshrined in the constitution of Ghana is aimed at making education accessible and affordable for all Ghanaian citizens. This paper sought to assess whether the universal basic education policy really have an impact on access at the basic level. The study was carried out on the premise that the universal basic…

  9. Assessing the Impact of Financial Policies on Nigeria's Economic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessing the Impact of Financial Policies on Nigeria's Economic Growth. ... Furthermore, it calls for effective implementation and monitoring of financial policies as well as adequate supervision of the financial sector by the relevant authorities to avoid lopsided compliance with financial and monetary guidelines. Keywords: ...

  10. Decoupling among CSR policies, programs, and impacts : An empirical study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graafland, Johan; Smid, Hugo

    2016-01-01

    There are relatively few empirical studies on the impacts of corporate social responsibility (CSR) policies and programs. This article addresses the research gap by analyzing the incidence of, and the conditions that affect, decoupling (defined as divergence) among CSR policies, implementation of

  11. Impact Of Monetary Policy On Financial Asset Returns: An Analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Impact Of Monetary Policy On Financial Asset Returns: An Analysis Of Selected Stocks From The Nigerian Capital Market. ... Journal of Research in National Development. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current ...

  12. THE SHEFFIELD ALCOHOL POLICY MODEL - A MATHEMATICAL DESCRIPTION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennan, Alan; Meier, Petra; Purshouse, Robin; Rafia, Rachid; Meng, Yang; Hill-Macmanus, Daniel; Angus, Colin; Holmes, John

    2014-09-30

    This methodology paper sets out a mathematical description of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 2.0, a model to evaluate public health strategies for alcohol harm reduction in the UK. Policies that can be appraised include a minimum price per unit of alcohol, restrictions on price discounting, and broader public health measures. The model estimates the impact on consumers, health services, crime, employers, retailers and government tax revenues. The synthesis of public and commercial data sources to inform the model structure is described. A detailed algebraic description of the model is provided. This involves quantifying baseline levels of alcohol purchasing and consumption by age and gender subgroups, estimating the impact of policies on consumption, for example, using evidence on price elasticities of demand for alcohol, quantification of risk functions relating alcohol consumption to harms including 47 health conditions, crimes, absenteeism and unemployment, and finally monetary valuation of the consequences. The results framework, shown for a minimum price per unit of alcohol, has been used to provide policy appraisals for the UK government policy-makers. In discussion and online appendix, we explore issues around valuation and scope, limitations of evidence/data, how the framework can be adapted to other countries and decisions, and ongoing plans for further development. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Policy modeling for industrial energy use

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worrell, Ernst; Park, Hi-Chun; Lee, Sang-Gon; Jung, Yonghun; Kato, Hiroyuki; Ramesohl, Stephan; Boyd, Gale; Eichhammer, Wolfgang; Nyboer, John; Jaccard, Mark; Nordqvist, Joakim; Boyd, Christopher; Klee, Howard; Anglani, Norma; Biermans, Gijs

    2003-03-01

    The international workshop on Policy Modeling for Industrial Energy Use was jointly organized by EETA (Professional Network for Engineering Economic Technology Analysis) and INEDIS (International Network for Energy Demand Analysis in the Industrial Sector). The workshop has helped to layout the needs and challenges to include policy more explicitly in energy-efficiency modeling. The current state-of-the-art models have a proven track record in forecasting future trends under conditions similar to those faced in the recent past. However, the future of energy policy in a climate-restrained world is likely to demand different and additional services to be provided by energy modelers. In this workshop some of the international models used to make energy consumption forecasts have been discussed as well as innovations to enable the modeling of policy scenarios. This was followed by the discussion of future challenges, new insights in the data needed to determine the inputs into energy model s, and methods to incorporate decision making and policy in the models. Based on the discussion the workshop participants came to the following conclusions and recommendations: Current energy models are already complex, and it is already difficult to collect the model inputs. Hence, new approaches should be transparent and not lead to extremely complex models that try to ''do everything''. The model structure will be determined by the questions that need to be answered. A good understanding of the decision making framework of policy makers and clear communication on the needs are essential to make any future energy modeling effort successful. There is a need to better understand the effects of policy on future energy use, emissions and the economy. To allow the inclusion of policy instruments in models, evaluation of programs and instruments is essential, and need to be included in the policy instrument design. Increased efforts are needed to better understand the

  14. Sustainability Impact Assessment of land use policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Helming, K.; Pérez-Soba, M.; Tabbush, P.

    2008-01-01

    The principle of multi-functionality simultaneously considers a variety of social, economic and environmental goods and services related to land use. It is thus a key to sustainable development of land and rural areas. Land use policies seek to support the economic competitiveness and sustainable

  15. European Union dairy policy reform: impact and challenges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jongeneel, R.A.

    2011-01-01

    Recent Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms have affected dairy policy, including the milk quota system, and increased the market orientation of the sector. A modelling exercise, using the European Dairy Industry Model (EDIM), simulates an initial sharp decline in the EU milk price in response

  16. Evaluating the impacts of packaging policy in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rouw, M.; Worrell, E.

    2011-01-01

    Packaging materials are one of the largest contributors to municipal solid waste production. This paper evaluates the material impacts packaging policy in The Netherlands in the period 1986–2007. Five different voluntary agreements were implemented over this period to reduce the environmental impact

  17. The impact of fiscal policy on economic growth in Namibia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Kaakunga

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to shed light on the impact of fiscal policy on growth.  Governments undertake expenditures to pursue a variety of goals, only one of which may be an increase in per capita income.  Using the framework of endogenous growth models which seeks to explain sustained long term growth, we showed how a change in the mix of public spending in favour of productive activities could lead to a steady state growth rate.  The explanatory variables, which affect growth positively, include capital expenditure, tax revenue and the terms of trade.  The share of private consumption in GDP, fiscal deficit, the share of total public debt in GDP and current expenditure relates negatively to the growth rate of output.

  18. Time to refine key climate policy models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, Alexander R.

    2018-05-01

    Ambition regarding climate change at the national level is critical but is often calibrated with the projected costs — as estimated by a small suite of energy-economic models. Weaknesses in several key areas in these models will continue to distort policy design unless collectively addressed by a diversity of researchers.

  19. Modeling Hepatitis C treatment policy.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuypers, Marshall A.; Lambert, Gregory Joseph; Moore, Thomas W.; Glass, Robert John,; Finley, Patrick D.; Ross, David; Chartier, Maggie

    2013-09-01

    Chronic infection with Hepatitis C virus (HCV) results in cirrhosis, liver cancer and death. As the nations largest provider of care for HCV, US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) invests extensive resources in the diagnosis and treatment of the disease. This report documents modeling and analysis of HCV treatment dynamics performed for the VHA aimed at improving service delivery efficiency. System dynamics modeling of disease treatment demonstrated the benefits of early detection and the role of comorbidities in disease progress and patient mortality. Preliminary modeling showed that adherence to rigorous treatment protocols is a primary determinant of treatment success. In depth meta-analysis revealed correlations of adherence and various psycho-social factors. This initial meta-analysis indicates areas where substantial improvement in patient outcomes can potentially result from VA programs which incorporate these factors into their design.

  20. State distributed PV policies: Can low cost (to government) policies have a market impact?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krasko, Vitaliy A.; Doris, Elizabeth

    2013-01-01

    This analysis examines the use of state policy as a tool to support the development of distributed generation photovoltaic (PV) markets. The focus is on low-cost market opening policies instead of various forms of government subsidies aimed at reducing installation costs. The ideas tested in this work are: (1) low-cost market opening policies can be effective in facilitating PV market growth without subsidizing projects, and (2) policies can be made more effective if states and localities stage their enactment in a particular order. The policies selected for evaluation emerge from a policy stacking theory outlined in Doris (2012), NREL/CP-7A30-54801, Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. A cross-section econometric analysis that takes into account the quality of interconnection standards, net metering standards, Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), RPS set-asides, and a non-policy determinant (population) explains about 70% of the variation in newly installed PV capacity across states and indicates that all of the selected policies are significant. Nonparametric statistical tests confirm the regression results. Qualitative evidence is also presented indicating that effective policy ordering starts with improving interconnection standards, closely followed by improvements in net metering standards, and eventually strengthened by the enactment of an RPS and set-asides. - Highlights: • Impacts of low cost market opening policies on PV capacity are evaluated. • Impact of a strategic policy enactment sequence is evaluated. • Effective interconnection, net metering, RPS, and set-asides increase PV capacity. • Effective ordering is market preparation, then creation, then expansion policies

  1. Policy Awareness, Financial Hardship, and Work Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurie A. Drapela

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Individuals with disabilities often report difficulty interacting with health care professionals. Addressing this challenge requires greater understanding of factors that exacerbate the odds of negative interactions between health care providers and patients with disabilities. Drawing on the qualitative research describing the features of such incidents, we use logistic regression to explore two dimensions of this dynamic: negative experiences with health care providers (e.g., doctors, specialists and negative experiences with health insurance carriers (e.g., for profit or non-profit health insurance organizations. Using a non-probability sample of American families who have a child with autism spectrum disorder (ASD, we find that negative experiences with health care providers are associated with the family’s income level, as well as changes in parental labor force participation. The odds of a negative interaction with the insurance carrier are intensified when the family experiences financial difficulties and when they have a negative experience with the health care provider. Finally, families who are aware of laws and policies regarding ASD also report increased odds of negative experiences with their insurance carrier but not their health care provider. Policy implications of our findings are discussed.

  2. A Policy Language for Modelling Recommendations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abou El Kalam, Anas; Balbiani, Philippe

    While current and emergent applications become more and more complex, most of existing security policies and models only consider a yes/no response to the access requests. Consequently, modelling, formalizing and implementing permissions, obligations and prohibitions do not cover the richness of all the possible scenarios. In fact, several applications have access rules with the recommendation access modality. In this paper we focus on the problem of formalizing security policies with recommendation needs. The aim is to provide a generic domain-independent formal system for modelling not only permissions, prohibitions and obligations, but also recommendations. In this respect, we present our logic-based language, the semantics, the truth conditions, our axiomatic as well as inference rules. We also give a representative use case with our specification of recommendation requirements. Finally, we explain how our logical framework could be used to query the security policy and to check its consistency.

  3. The Impact of Youth Unemployment Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Filges, Trine; Larsen, Birthe

    This paper examines the impact of unemployment, unemployment distribution, wages and welfare of Youth Unemployment Programmes (YUPs). This paper analyse what happens when the number of skilled workers increases relatively to the number of unskilled workers. The results depend on the productivity...... of the skilled workers when employed in the "skilled sector" relatively to the productivity of the unskilled worker....

  4. Validity of information security policy models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Onome Imoniana

    Full Text Available Validity is concerned with establishing evidence for the use of a method to be used with a particular set of population. Thus, when we address the issue of application of security policy models, we are concerned with the implementation of a certain policy, taking into consideration the standards required, through attribution of scores to every item in the research instrument. En today's globalized economic scenarios, the implementation of information security policy, in an information technology environment, is a condition sine qua non for the strategic management process of any organization. Regarding this topic, various studies present evidences that, the responsibility for maintaining a policy rests primarily with the Chief Security Officer. The Chief Security Officer, in doing so, strives to enhance the updating of technologies, in order to meet all-inclusive business continuity planning policies. Therefore, for such policy to be effective, it has to be entirely embraced by the Chief Executive Officer. This study was developed with the purpose of validating specific theoretical models, whose designs were based on literature review, by sampling 10 of the Automobile Industries located in the ABC region of Metropolitan São Paulo City. This sampling was based on the representativeness of such industries, particularly with regards to each one's implementation of information technology in the region. The current study concludes, presenting evidence of the discriminating validity of four key dimensions of the security policy, being such: the Physical Security, the Logical Access Security, the Administrative Security, and the Legal & Environmental Security. On analyzing the Alpha of Crombach structure of these security items, results not only attest that the capacity of those industries to implement security policies is indisputable, but also, the items involved, homogeneously correlate to each other.

  5. Water use impacts of future transport fuels: role of California's climate policy & National biofuel policies (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Yeh, S.; Mishra, G. S.; Tiedeman, K.; Yang, C.

    2013-12-01

    -hydrologic model EPIC to capture both green water (GW) and blue water (BW) use at a ~10 square km resolution among three scenarios: (1) a counterfactual scenario with no national biofuel policy, (2) current Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a proposed national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. Inputs to EPIC are spatially explicit: (a) cropping areas and yields as projected by a partial equilibrium economic model, (b) daily weather data, (c) soil properties (d) N fertilizer application, and (e) irrigation sources and volumes, by crop (Fig 4-5). We assess the differences among biofuel scenarios from 2007-2035 along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion on prime & marginal lands (Fig 6), (2) Crop-specific & overall annual/seasonal water balances including (2a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (2b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (2c) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm3 /acre. We found differential water use impacts among biofuel scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes (2) irrigation practices, (3) feedstock water use efficiency, and (4) the longer growing season and a predominance of rainfed cultivation of dedicated biofuel feedstocks. Fig 1-6 available at the linked urls.

  6. Emerging energy technologies impacts and policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grubb, M.

    1992-01-01

    Technical change is a key factor in the energy world. Failure to recognize the potential for technical change, and the pace at which it may occur, has limited the accuracy and usefulness of past energy projections. conversely, programs to develop and deploy advanced energy technologies have often proved disappointing in the face of technical and commercial obstacles. This book examines important new and emerging energy technologies, and the mechanisms by which they may develop and enter the market. The project concentrates on the potential and probable role of selected energy technologies-which are in existence and likely to be of rapidly growing importance over the next decade-and the way in which market conditions and policy environment may affect their implementation

  7. Assessing the impacts of the changes in farming systems on food security and environmental sustainability of a Chinese rural region under different policy scenarios: an agent-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Chengcheng; Liu, Liming; Qi, Xiaoxing; Fu, Yonghu; Ye, Jinwei

    2017-07-01

    Since China has undergone a series of economic reforms and implemented opening up policies, its farming systems have significantly changed and have dramatically influenced the society, economy, and environment of China. To assess the comprehensive impacts of these changes on food security and environmental sustainability, and establish effective and environment-friendly subsidy policies, this research constructed an agent-based model (ABM). Daligang Town, which is located in the two-season rice region of Southern China, was selected as the case study site. Four different policy scenarios, i.e., "sharply increasing" (SI), "no-increase" (NI), "adjusted-method" (AM), and "trend" (TD) scenarios were investigated from 2015 to 2029. The validation result shows that the relative prediction errors between the simulated and actual values annually ranged from -20 to 20%, indicating the reliability of the proposed model. The scenario analysis revealed that the four scenarios generated different variations in cropping systems, rice yield, and fertilizer and pesticide inputs when the purchase price of rice and the non-agricultural income were assumed to increase annually by 0.1 RMB per kg and 10% per person, respectively. Among the four different policy scenarios in Daligang, the TD scenario was considered the best, because it had a relatively high rice yield, fairly minimal use of fertilizers and pesticides, and a lower level of subsidy. Despite its limitations, ABM could be considered a useful tool in analyzing, exploring, and discussing the comprehensive effects of the changes in farming system on food security and environmental sustainability.

  8. Towards policy relevant environmental modeling: contextual validity and pragmatic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Scott B.

    2000-01-01

    "What makes for a good model?" In various forms, this question is a question that, undoubtedly, many people, businesses, and institutions ponder with regards to their particular domain of modeling. One particular domain that is wrestling with this question is the multidisciplinary field of environmental modeling. Examples of environmental models range from models of contaminated ground water flow to the economic impact of natural disasters, such as earthquakes. One of the distinguishing claims of the field is the relevancy of environmental modeling to policy and environment-related decision-making in general. A pervasive view by both scientists and decision-makers is that a "good" model is one that is an accurate predictor. Thus, determining whether a model is "accurate" or "correct" is done by comparing model output to empirical observations. The expected outcome of this process, usually referred to as "validation" or "ground truthing," is a stamp on the model in question of "valid" or "not valid" that serves to indicate whether or not the model will be reliable before it is put into service in a decision-making context. In this paper, I begin by elaborating on the prevailing view of model validation and why this view must change. Drawing from concepts coming out of the studies of science and technology, I go on to propose a contextual view of validity that can overcome the problems associated with "ground truthing" models as an indicator of model goodness. The problem of how we talk about and determine model validity has much to do about how we perceive the utility of environmental models. In the remainder of the paper, I argue that we should adopt ideas of pragmatism in judging what makes for a good model and, in turn, developing good models. From such a perspective of model goodness, good environmental models should facilitate communication, convey—not bury or "eliminate"—uncertainties, and, thus, afford the active building of consensus decisions, instead

  9. The Impact of Trade Policy on Industry Concentration in Switzerland

    OpenAIRE

    Burghardt, Dirk

    2013-01-01

    This paper studies the impact of trade policy on industry concentration. Based on the Swiss Business Census, concentration levels for all four-digit manufacturing industries in Switzerland are calculated. Then the effect of a bilateral reduction in technical barriers to trade with the European Union is estimated. Adopting a difference-in-differences approach, it turns out that concentration in affected industries with low R&D intensity increased significantly following the policy change. This...

  10. Misconduct Policies in High-Impact Biomedical Journals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosch, Xavier; Hernández, Cristina; Pericas, Juan M.; Doti, Pamela; Marušić, Ana

    2012-01-01

    Background It is not clear which research misconduct policies are adopted by biomedical journals. This study assessed the prevalence and content policies of the most influential biomedical journals on misconduct and procedures for handling and responding to allegations of misconduct. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study of misconduct policies of 399 high-impact biomedical journals in 27 biomedical categories of the Journal Citation Reports in December 2011. Journal websites were reviewed for information relevant to misconduct policies. Results Of 399 journals, 140 (35.1%) provided explicit definitions of misconduct. Falsification was explicitly mentioned by 113 (28.3%) journals, fabrication by 104 (26.1%), plagiarism by 224 (56.1%), duplication by 242 (60.7%) and image manipulation by 154 (38.6%). Procedures for responding to misconduct were described in 179 (44.9%) websites, including retraction, (30.8%) and expression of concern (16.3%). Plagiarism-checking services were used by 112 (28.1%) journals. The prevalences of all types of misconduct policies were higher in journals that endorsed any policy from editors’ associations, Office of Research Integrity or professional societies compared to those that did not state adherence to these policy-producing bodies. Elsevier and Wiley-Blackwell had the most journals included (22.6% and 14.8%, respectively), with Wiley journals having greater a prevalence of misconduct definition and policies on falsification, fabrication and expression of concern and Elsevier of plagiarism-checking services. Conclusions Only a third of top-ranking peer-reviewed journals had publicly-available definitions of misconduct and less than a half described procedures for handling allegations of misconduct. As endorsement of international policies from policy-producing bodies was positively associated with implementation of policies and procedures, journals and their publishers should standardize their policies globally in order to

  11. Misconduct policies in high-impact biomedical journals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xavier Bosch

    Full Text Available It is not clear which research misconduct policies are adopted by biomedical journals. This study assessed the prevalence and content policies of the most influential biomedical journals on misconduct and procedures for handling and responding to allegations of misconduct.We conducted a cross-sectional study of misconduct policies of 399 high-impact biomedical journals in 27 biomedical categories of the Journal Citation Reports in December 2011. Journal websites were reviewed for information relevant to misconduct policies.Of 399 journals, 140 (35.1% provided explicit definitions of misconduct. Falsification was explicitly mentioned by 113 (28.3% journals, fabrication by 104 (26.1%, plagiarism by 224 (56.1%, duplication by 242 (60.7% and image manipulation by 154 (38.6%. Procedures for responding to misconduct were described in 179 (44.9% websites, including retraction, (30.8% and expression of concern (16.3%. Plagiarism-checking services were used by 112 (28.1% journals. The prevalences of all types of misconduct policies were higher in journals that endorsed any policy from editors' associations, Office of Research Integrity or professional societies compared to those that did not state adherence to these policy-producing bodies. Elsevier and Wiley-Blackwell had the most journals included (22.6% and 14.8%, respectively, with Wiley journals having greater a prevalence of misconduct definition and policies on falsification, fabrication and expression of concern and Elsevier of plagiarism-checking services.Only a third of top-ranking peer-reviewed journals had publicly-available definitions of misconduct and less than a half described procedures for handling allegations of misconduct. As endorsement of international policies from policy-producing bodies was positively associated with implementation of policies and procedures, journals and their publishers should standardize their policies globally in order to increase public trust in the

  12. Geothermal Brief: Market and Policy Impacts Update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Speer, B.

    2012-10-01

    Utility-scale geothermal electricity generation plants have generally taken advantage of various government initiatives designed to stimulate private investment. This report investigates these initiatives to evaluate their impact on the associated cost of energy and the development of geothermal electric generating capacity using conventional hydrothermal technologies. We use the Cost of Renewable Energy Spreadsheet Tool (CREST) to analyze the effects of tax incentives on project economics. Incentives include the production tax credit, U.S. Department of Treasury cash grant, the investment tax credit, and accelerated depreciation schedules. The second half of the report discusses the impact of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Loan Guarantee Program on geothermal electric project deployment and possible reasons for a lack of guarantees for geothermal projects. For comparison, we examine the effectiveness of the 1970s DOE drilling support programs, including the original loan guarantee and industry-coupled cost share programs.

  13. Cross-impacts analysis development and energy policy analysis applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roop, J.M.; Scheer, R.M.; Stacey, G.S.

    1986-12-01

    Purpose of this report is to describe the cross-impact analysis process and microcomputer software developed for the Office of Policy, Planning, and Analysis (PPA) of DOE. First introduced in 1968, cross-impact analysis is a technique that produces scenarios of future conditions and possibilities. Cross-impact analysis has several unique attributes that make it a tool worth examining, especially in the current climate when the outlook for the economy and several of the key energy markets is uncertain. Cross-impact analysis complements the econometric, engineering, systems dynamics, or trend approaches already in use at DOE. Cross-impact analysis produces self-consistent scenarios in the broadest sense and can include interaction between the economy, technology, society and the environment. Energy policy analyses that couple broad scenarios of the future with detailed forecasting can produce more powerful results than scenario analysis or forecasts can produce alone.

  14. The Mass Media Influence on the Impact of Health Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cătălin BABA

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available The theme of this study is a distinct examination of the issues regarding health policy, social representations and mass media. The analysis of the mass media influence on the impact of health policy leads to a portrayal of the related programs and the way they are received by citizens through mass media. Owing to the mass media quality to be an indicator of democracy it is very important to study its role in setting people daily agenda considering how it is able to maintain and create trends merely through recurrent messages. The issues frequently conveyed by media industry influences citizens’ interest with regard to community, producing effects on public policy. We must bear in mind that the more persistent in media they are, the more relevant for community this issues will be. The authors of the study put forward a method through which diverse programmes can be analysed. A comparative analysis of mass media and citizens’ social representations and its findings provide information about the influence between them. According to agenda setting theory and many international studies on health policy the authors conclude that mass media institution highly influence the impact of the health policy in health. Moreover, it is important to mention that the impact refers to all the stages of a policy-making: beginning with the problem identification and ending with the evaluation of the implementation process.

  15. Economic, welfare and environmental impact of feed-in tariff policy: A case study in Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tabatabaei, Sharareh Majdzadeh; Hadian, Ebrahim; Marzban, Hossein; Zibaei, Mansour

    2017-01-01

    Following a particular attention given to environmental issues over the last few decades, establishing proper developmental policies to increase electricity production from renewable energy (RE) has not only been an important issue but also a challenge for many countries. Feed-in Tariff (FIT) Policy is one of the tools that is being used to facilitate the development of RE. This research evaluated the economic, welfare and environmental impact of this policy on Iran's economy. Therefore, after developing an Economic-Energy-Environmental (E3) type of Hybrid General Equilibrium model, the effect of FIT policy was examined under different scenarios in order to find an optimal condition in which 10% of electrical energy could be produced from renewable resources. The comparison between the results showed that the application of subsidies to RE and the way the government finances these subsidies can affect the results of FIT policy. Meanwhile, regardless of the role considered for the impact of environmental factors, our policies under the scenario of technology neutral is the most efficient, as it has less impact on the decline of GDP of different sectors and also has less financial cost for government. - Highlights: • E3 type of Hybrid CGE model is used under two different financing policies. • Technology neutral and technology specific scenarios are applied to these policies. • Results show the effect of our policies and scenarios on the efficiency of FIT policy. • This efficiency comes from the impact on GDP balance and government's financial cost. • The results show that, the scenario of technology neutral is the most efficient.

  16. Strategic Sequencing for State Distributed PV Policies: A Quantitative Analysis of Policy Impacts and Interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doris, E.; Krasko, V.A.

    2012-10-01

    State and local policymakers show increasing interest in spurring the development of customer-sited distributed generation (DG), in particular solar photovoltaic (PV) markets. Prompted by that interest, this analysis examines the use of state policy as a tool to support the development of a robust private investment market. This analysis builds on previous studies that focus on government subsidies to reduce installation costs of individual projects and provides an evaluation of the impacts of policies on stimulating private market development.

  17. Unpacking the impacts of 'participatory' forestry policies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mutune, Jane Mutheu; Lund, Jens Friis

    2016-01-01

    We evaluate the livelihoods of member and non-members of Community Forestry Associations under Kenya's participatory forest management (PFM) programme. We use propensity score matching of households based on recall based data from before implementation of PFM from 286 households and comparison...... of current incomes (2012), as well as review of records and interviews. Results reveal that members have higher total and forest-related incomes than non-members and indicate that impacts derive from labour and market opportunities supported by donor institutions, more than from differential access to forest...

  18. The impact of new member states on EU environmental policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mikael Skou

    1996-01-01

    The fourth enlargement of the EU, with Sweden, Finland and Austria, which took effect on 1 January 1995, is by many expected to have a positive impact on the environmental policy dimension of the Union, which has been under strain since the Rio Summit in 1992.......The fourth enlargement of the EU, with Sweden, Finland and Austria, which took effect on 1 January 1995, is by many expected to have a positive impact on the environmental policy dimension of the Union, which has been under strain since the Rio Summit in 1992....

  19. Modelling mobility aspects of security policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartel, Pieter H.; van Eck, Pascal; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Barthe, G.; Burdy, L.; Huisman, Marieke; Lanet, J.-L.; Muntean, T.

    Security policies are rules that constrain the behaviour of a system. Different, largely unrelated sets of rules typically govern the physical and logical worlds. However, increased hardware and software mobility forces us to consider those rules in an integrated fashion. We present SPIN models of

  20. Impact of school peanut-free policies on epinephrine administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartnikas, Lisa M; Huffaker, Michelle F; Sheehan, William J; Kanchongkittiphon, Watcharoot; Petty, Carter R; Leibowitz, Robert; Hauptman, Marissa; Young, Michael C; Phipatanakul, Wanda

    2017-08-01

    Children with food allergies spend a large proportion of time in school but characteristics of allergic reactions in schools are not well studied. Some schools self-designate as peanut-free or have peanut-free areas, but the impact of policies on clinical outcomes has not been evaluated. We sought to determine the effect of peanut-free policies on rates of epinephrine administration for allergic reactions in Massachusetts public schools. In this retrospective study, we analyzed (1) rates of epinephrine administration in all Massachusetts public schools and (2) Massachusetts public school nurse survey reports of school peanut-free policies from 2006 to 2011 and whether schools self-designated as "peanut-free" based on policies. Rates of epinephrine administration were compared for schools with or without peanut-restrictive policies. The percentage of schools with peanut-restrictive policies did not change significantly in the study time frame. There was variability in policies used by schools self-designated as peanut-free. No policy was associated with complete absence of allergic reactions. Both self-designated peanut-free schools and schools banning peanuts from being served in school or brought from home reported allergic reactions to nuts. Policies restricting peanuts from home, served in schools, or having peanut-free classrooms did not affect epinephrine administration rates. Schools with peanut-free tables, compared to without, had lower rates of epinephrine administration (incidence rate per 10,000 students 0.2 and 0.6, respectively, P = .009). These data provide a basis for evidence-based school policies for children with food allergies. Further studies are required before decisions can be made regarding peanut-free policies in schools. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. The Development of a Multisource and a Systematized Database for Economic and Policy Impact Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ec. Filippo Oropallo

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available ISTAT is involved in various EU projects with the objective of "supporting the Lisbon objectives, EU governance and the process of national policy coverage with the best EU-wide and national policy impact and evaluation analyses". Existing knowledge on policy impact analyses is approximate. The "facts" on the impact of policies are charted only at the aggregate level and with a high degree of approximation. Macro indicators have well-known pitfalls and drawbacks. Understanding how policies affect economic performance and developing better indicators to gauge their effects is central to endow the EU with a set of efficient and fair policies. The gap in European knowledge and capacity for Policy Impact Analysis is patent. The DIECOFIS EU-FP5 project has taken up the challenge of reducing this gap in the field of taxation. Results have been quite encouraging and have open new vistas for future work. Particularly notable has been the development of a system of micro-founded indicators, based on factuals and counterfactuals, estimated through micro-simulation models. This has led to the current utilization of such a tool in the ex-ante microsimulation of the effects of several reforms of corporate taxation

  2. Administrator Perceptions of School Improvement Policies in a High-Impact Policy Setting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIO S. TORRES

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated school administrators’ perceptions of school improvement policies in a high-impact policy environment by measuring the impact of accountability, site-based management, professional development, and scheduling reform on the three dependent variables of a academic outcomes, b staff morale, and c parent and community involvement. Using a convenience sampling method, 49 public school principals from Texas participated and an online survey was constructed to gather both quantitative (i.e., Likert scale and qualitative (i.e., open ended response data. The findings clearly point to principals, regardless of geographical district type and grade level school type, viewing less controversial and more intrinsically oriented policies (i.e., site-based management and professional development as having a greater positive impact on outcomes as a whole than more radical alternatives (i.e., accountability and time and schedule reform. The evidence suggests that more aggressive school improvement policy approaches are likely failing to generate enough convincing outcomes to generate high commitment and confidence from school leaders. Further studies may look at the interaction of policy impact with minority student enrollments and with subgroup populations.

  3. Impact Analysis of Air Pollutant Emission Policies on Thermal Coal Supply Chain Enterprises in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaopeng Guo

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Spurred by the increasingly serious air pollution problem, the Chinese government has launched a series of policies to put forward specific measures of power structure adjustment and the control objectives of air pollution and coal consumption. Other policies pointed out that the coal resources regional blockades will be broken by improving transportation networks and constructing new logistics nodes. Thermal power takes the largest part of China’s total installed power generation capacity, so these policies will undoubtedly impact thermal coal supply chain member enterprises. Based on the actual situation in China, this paper figures out how the member enterprises adjust their business decisions to satisfy the requirements of air pollution prevention and control policies by establishing system dynamic models of policy impact transfer. These dynamic analyses can help coal enterprises and thermal power enterprises do strategic environmental assessments and find directions of sustainable development. Furthermore, the policy simulated results of this paper provide the Chinese government with suggestions for policy-making to make sure that the energy conservation and emission reduction policies and sustainable energy policies can work more efficiently.

  4. Streamflow impacts of biofuel policy-driven landscape change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sami Khanal

    Full Text Available Likely changes in precipitation (P and potential evapotranspiration (PET resulting from policy-driven expansion of bioenergy crops in the United States are shown to create significant changes in streamflow volumes and increase water stress in the High Plains. Regional climate simulations for current and biofuel cropping system scenarios are evaluated using the same atmospheric forcing data over the period 1979-2004 using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF model coupled to the NOAH land surface model. PET is projected to increase under the biofuel crop production scenario. The magnitude of the mean annual increase in PET is larger than the inter-annual variability of change in PET, indicating that PET increase is a forced response to the biofuel cropping system land use. Across the conterminous U.S., the change in mean streamflow volume under the biofuel scenario is estimated to range from negative 56% to positive 20% relative to a business-as-usual baseline scenario. In Kansas and Oklahoma, annual streamflow volume is reduced by an average of 20%, and this reduction in streamflow volume is due primarily to increased PET. Predicted increase in mean annual P under the biofuel crop production scenario is lower than its inter-annual variability, indicating that additional simulations would be necessary to determine conclusively whether predicted change in P is a response to biofuel crop production. Although estimated changes in streamflow volume include the influence of P change, sensitivity results show that PET change is the significantly dominant factor causing streamflow change. Higher PET and lower streamflow due to biofuel feedstock production are likely to increase water stress in the High Plains. When pursuing sustainable biofuels policy, decision-makers should consider the impacts of feedstock production on water scarcity.

  5. Wellbeing impacts of city policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hiscock, Rosemary; Mudu, Pierpaolo; Braubach, Matthias

    2014-01-01

    To mitigate climate change, city authorities are developing policies in areas such as transportation, housing and energy use, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to their effects on greenhouse gas emissions, these policies are likely to have consequences for the wellbeing...... and subjective aspects which can be measured quantitatively; our review of measures informs the development of a theoretical model linking wellbeing to policies which cities use to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, we discuss the extent to which the links proposed in the conceptual model are supported...

  6. The economic impacts of emission reduction policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanson, D.A.

    1992-07-01

    Environmental expenditures, or environmental tax revenues, e.g., carbon taxes are potentially significant components of the US macroeconomy. This paper presents a simple model of the role of environmental abatement expenditures and/or emission taxes from the viewpoint of economic efficiency, welfare and potential macroeconomic effects.

  7. The economic impacts of emission reduction policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanson, D.A.

    1992-01-01

    Environmental expenditures, or environmental tax revenues, e.g., carbon taxes are potentially significant components of the US macroeconomy. This paper presents a simple model of the role of environmental abatement expenditures and/or emission taxes from the viewpoint of economic efficiency, welfare and potential macroeconomic effects.

  8. Residents' perceptions of tourism impacts and attitudes towards tourism policies.

    OpenAIRE

    Brida, J.G.; Disegna, Marta; Osti, L.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore residents' perceptions of tourism impacts and how they affect attitudes towards local tourism policies. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of community attachment and employment sector of residents. This study presents the results of a quantitative survey among residing families of a small mountain community located in the North-East of Italy. The findings reveal that residents perceptions on economic, environmental and socio-cultural impacts ...

  9. Impact assessment and policy learning in the European Commission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruddy, Thomas F.; Hilty, Lorenz M.

    2008-01-01

    Governance for sustainable development requires policy coherence and Environmental Policy Integration, which are being hindered by difficulties coordinating the two separate impact assessment processes being conducted in the European Commission. One of them, the Commission-wide Impact Assessment process, looks primarily at EU-internal impacts, whereas the other one, Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) in DG Trade, looks outward to other countries and intergovernmental organizations. Ideally, the two processes should complement one another, especially as the two are set to continue being done in parallel. The paper uses a case study of the reform of the European sugar regime under a World Trade Organization ruling to demonstrate how the two impact assessment processes could better complement one another. Feedback from the experience had with existing trade agreements could then promote policy learning and inform the negotiations on new agreements. The number of new bilateral and Regional Trade Agreements is expected to continue rising, thus increasing the importance of the Commission-wide Impact Assessment process required for them

  10. Impact of entrepreneurship policies on opportunity to startup

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Davari

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available During the previous decades, policy makers have formulated policies for developing entrepreneurship in different countries in order to decrease unemployment and poverty toward sustainable development. Some of these policies include encouraging people to be an entrepreneur, opportunity creation, educating new skills to entrepreneurs and so on. In recent years an appropriate context has been formed for entrepreneurship development in Iran and some programs have been executed. Therefore, formulating appropriate frameworks to guide Iranian government in this way is a necessity. This paper evaluates the impact of entrepreneurship policies on opportunity to startup in Iran. The results of path analysis indicate that supportive financial and non-financial actions influence positively on opportunity to startup. In addition, education and culture also influence positively on opportunity to startup. Finally, legislation also positively influences on opportunity to startup.

  11. Impact of reserves information on formulating government policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekelund, M.W.; Anderson, B.; Khan, M.; Hudson, B.

    1997-01-01

    Policies regarding the development and production of Alberta's mineral resources such as oil, gas, and bitumen, are developed by the Alberta Ministry of Energy. The Ministry is divided into the Energy and Utilities Board (EUB) and the Department of Energy. The EUB deals with conservation, production measurement and reporting, environmental issues and some public utility issues. The Department of Energy deals with determining the appropriate fiscal and tenure regimes, market effectiveness issues and collection of Alberta's share of production. Reserve estimates are used for policy development and implementation purposes. The impact of some doubts regarding the reliability of reserves information and its impact on provincial policy recommendations were highlighted. Examples were drawn from bitumen reserves determination in the Athabasca Oil Sands area, enhanced oil recovery programs within the conventional oil sector, and royalty formulation within the conventional oil and gas sectors

  12. The impact of uncertainty on optimal emission policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botta, Nicola; Jansson, Patrik; Ionescu, Cezar

    2018-05-01

    We apply a computational framework for specifying and solving sequential decision problems to study the impact of three kinds of uncertainties on optimal emission policies in a stylized sequential emission problem.We find that uncertainties about the implementability of decisions on emission reductions (or increases) have a greater impact on optimal policies than uncertainties about the availability of effective emission reduction technologies and uncertainties about the implications of trespassing critical cumulated emission thresholds. The results show that uncertainties about the implementability of decisions on emission reductions (or increases) call for more precautionary policies. In other words, delaying emission reductions to the point in time when effective technologies will become available is suboptimal when these uncertainties are accounted for rigorously. By contrast, uncertainties about the implications of exceeding critical cumulated emission thresholds tend to make early emission reductions less rewarding.

  13. Influencing policy through impact evaluation in Latin America and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    And there are growing concerns about the ethics of implementing some types of IE. This paper explores recent IE practice in Latin America and reviews more than 300 impact evaluations in 21 countries. It examines the policy issues covered and methodologies used; the research actors and implementing agencies involved; ...

  14. Influencing policy through impact evaluation in Latin America and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    IDRC's Supporting Inclusive Growth (SIG) program supports the strengthening of research capacity, to generate and use evidence that contributes to informed public dialogue and policymaking. Impact Evaluation for Policy Making: A Close Look at Latin American Countries with Weaker Research Capacities, the fourth title ...

  15. The impact of monetary policy on financing of Czech firms

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Aliyev, Ruslan; Hájková, D.; Kubicová, I.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 65, č. 6 (2015), s. 455-476 ISSN 0015-1920 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : monetary policy transmission * broad credit view * external finance Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.449, year: 2015 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/mag/article/show/id/1343

  16. Impact of Scheduling Policies on Control System Performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Ravn, Anders Peter; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard

    2003-01-01

    It is well known that jitter has an impact on control system performance, and this is often used as an argument for static scheduling policies, e.g. a time triggered architecture. However, it is only completion jitter that seriously disturbs standard linear control algorithms in a way similar to ...

  17. The Impact of Privatization and Commercialization Policy on the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study examined the impact of privatization and commercialization policy on the attainment of millennium development goals in the Nigerian economy. To achieve this objective, an econometric analysis of ordinary least squares regression method was used. The results showed that the privatization and ...

  18. The impact of the member states on EU environmental policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mikael Skou

    1996-01-01

    This paper explores the impact of the fourth enlargement (with Sweden, Austria and Finland) on the European Union's environmental policy. This is done by comparing the priorities and strategies of the newcomers with those of the former environmental pioneers (Germany, Netherlands and Denmark)....

  19. Assessing the Impact of Current National Policies to Reduce Salt ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Assessing the Impact of Current National Policies to Reduce Salt and Trans Fatty Acids in Argentina ... The Codex Alimentarius, or international food safety standards, will also decrease trans fatty acids (TFA) ... Researchers will develop a strategy to share results with policymakers and other stakeholders. ... Journal articles.

  20. Agricultural policy environmental eXtender model simulation of climate change impacts on runoff from a small no-till watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long-term hydrologic data sets are required to quantify the impacts of management, and climate on runoff at the field scale where management practices are applied. This study was conducted to evaluate the impacts of long-term management and climate on runoff from a small watershed managed with no-ti...

  1. Impact of Different Carbon Policies on City Logistics Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Jianhua

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A programming model for a four-layer urban logistics distribution network is constructed and revised based on three types of carbon emissions policies such as Carbon tax, carbon emissions Cap, Carbon Trade. Effects of different policies on logistics costs and carbon emissions are analyzed based on a spatial Logistics Infrastructure layout of Beijing. Research findings are as follows: First, based on low-carbon policies, the logistics costs and carbon emissions can be changed by different modes of transport in a certain extent; second, only when carbon taxes and carbon trading prices are higher, carbon taxes and carbon trading policies can reduce carbon emissions while not significantly increase logistics costs at the same time, and more effectively achieve carbon reduction targets than use carbon cap policy.

  2. An Integrative Behavioral Model of Information Security Policy Compliance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang Hoon Kim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The authors found the behavioral factors that influence the organization members’ compliance with the information security policy in organizations on the basis of neutralization theory, Theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory. Depending on the theory of planned behavior, members’ attitudes towards compliance, as well as normative belief and self-efficacy, were believed to determine the intention to comply with the information security policy. Neutralization theory, a prominent theory in criminology, could be expected to provide the explanation for information system security policy violations. Based on the protection motivation theory, it was inferred that the expected efficacy could have an impact on intentions of compliance. By the above logical reasoning, the integrative behavioral model and eight hypotheses could be derived. Data were collected by conducting a survey; 194 out of 207 questionnaires were available. The test of the causal model was conducted by PLS. The reliability, validity, and model fit were found to be statistically significant. The results of the hypotheses tests showed that seven of the eight hypotheses were acceptable. The theoretical implications of this study are as follows: (1 the study is expected to play a role of the baseline for future research about organization members’ compliance with the information security policy, (2 the study attempted an interdisciplinary approach by combining psychology and information system security research, and (3 the study suggested concrete operational definitions of influencing factors for information security policy compliance through a comprehensive theoretical review. Also, the study has some practical implications. First, it can provide the guideline to support the successful execution of the strategic establishment for the implement of information system security policies in organizations. Second, it proves that the need of education and training

  3. An integrative behavioral model of information security policy compliance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sang Hoon; Yang, Kyung Hoon; Park, Sunyoung

    2014-01-01

    The authors found the behavioral factors that influence the organization members' compliance with the information security policy in organizations on the basis of neutralization theory, Theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory. Depending on the theory of planned behavior, members' attitudes towards compliance, as well as normative belief and self-efficacy, were believed to determine the intention to comply with the information security policy. Neutralization theory, a prominent theory in criminology, could be expected to provide the explanation for information system security policy violations. Based on the protection motivation theory, it was inferred that the expected efficacy could have an impact on intentions of compliance. By the above logical reasoning, the integrative behavioral model and eight hypotheses could be derived. Data were collected by conducting a survey; 194 out of 207 questionnaires were available. The test of the causal model was conducted by PLS. The reliability, validity, and model fit were found to be statistically significant. The results of the hypotheses tests showed that seven of the eight hypotheses were acceptable. The theoretical implications of this study are as follows: (1) the study is expected to play a role of the baseline for future research about organization members' compliance with the information security policy, (2) the study attempted an interdisciplinary approach by combining psychology and information system security research, and (3) the study suggested concrete operational definitions of influencing factors for information security policy compliance through a comprehensive theoretical review. Also, the study has some practical implications. First, it can provide the guideline to support the successful execution of the strategic establishment for the implement of information system security policies in organizations. Second, it proves that the need of education and training programs suppressing

  4. Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project 'European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast' - http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). A model was built to assess policy scenarios' impact on the pharmaceutical budgets of seven member states of the EU, namely France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. The following scenarios were tested: expanding the UK policies to EU, changing time to market access, modifying generic price and penetration, shifting the distribution chain of biosimilars (retail/hospital). Applying the UK policy resulted in dramatic savings for Germany (10 times the base case forecast) and substantial additional savings for France and Portugal (2 and 4 times the base case forecast, respectively). Delaying time to market was found be to a very powerful tool to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Applying the EU transparency directive (6-month process for pricing and reimbursement) increased pharmaceutical expenditure for all countries (from 1.1 to 4 times the base case forecast), except in Germany (additional savings). Decreasing the price of generics and boosting the penetration rate, as well as shifting distribution of biosimilars through hospital chain were also key methods to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Change in the level of reimbursement rate to 100% in all countries led to an important increase in the pharmaceutical budget. Forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure is a critical exercise to inform policy decision makers. The most important leverages identified by the model on pharmaceutical budget were driven by generic and biosimilar prices, penetration rate, and distribution. Reducing, even slightly, the prices of

  5. Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and objective With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project ‘European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast’ – http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Methods A model was built to assess policy scenarios’ impact on the pharmaceutical budgets of seven member states of the EU, namely France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. The following scenarios were tested: expanding the UK policies to EU, changing time to market access, modifying generic price and penetration, shifting the distribution chain of biosimilars (retail/hospital). Results Applying the UK policy resulted in dramatic savings for Germany (10 times the base case forecast) and substantial additional savings for France and Portugal (2 and 4 times the base case forecast, respectively). Delaying time to market was found be to a very powerful tool to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Applying the EU transparency directive (6-month process for pricing and reimbursement) increased pharmaceutical expenditure for all countries (from 1.1 to 4 times the base case forecast), except in Germany (additional savings). Decreasing the price of generics and boosting the penetration rate, as well as shifting distribution of biosimilars through hospital chain were also key methods to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Change in the level of reimbursement rate to 100% in all countries led to an important increase in the pharmaceutical budget. Conclusions Forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure is a critical exercise to inform policy decision makers. The most important leverages identified by the model on pharmaceutical budget were driven by generic and biosimilar prices, penetration rate

  6. A Simple Forecasting Model Linking Macroeconomic Policy to Industrial Employment Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malley, James R.; Hady, Thomas F.

    A study detailed further a model linking monetary and fiscal policy to industrial employment in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas of four United States regions. The model was used to simulate the impacts on area and regional employment of three events in the economy: changing real gross national product (GNP) via monetary policy, holding the…

  7. Transport policy and health inequalities: a health impact assessment of Edinburgh's transport policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorman, D; Douglas, M J; Conway, L; Noble, P; Hanlon, P

    2003-01-01

    Health impact assessment (HIA) can be used to examine the relationships between inequalities and health. This HIA of Edinburgh's transport policy demonstrates how HIA can examine how different transport policies can affect different population groupings to varying degrees. In this case, Edinburgh's economy is based on tourism, financial services and Government bodies. These need a good transport infrastructure, which maintains a vibrant city centre. A transport policy that promotes walking, cycling and public transport supports this and is also good for health. The HIA suggested that greater spend on public transport and supporting sustainable modes of transport was beneficial to health, and offered scope to reduce inequalities. This message was understood by the City Council and influenced the development of the city's transport and land-use strategies. The paper discusses how HIA can influence public policy.

  8. Computational Models Used to Assess US Tobacco Control Policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feirman, Shari P; Glasser, Allison M; Rose, Shyanika; Niaura, Ray; Abrams, David B; Teplitskaya, Lyubov; Villanti, Andrea C

    2017-11-01

    Simulation models can be used to evaluate existing and potential tobacco control interventions, including policies. The purpose of this systematic review was to synthesize evidence from computational models used to project population-level effects of tobacco control interventions. We provide recommendations to strengthen simulation models that evaluate tobacco control interventions. Studies were eligible for review if they employed a computational model to predict the expected effects of a non-clinical US-based tobacco control intervention. We searched five electronic databases on July 1, 2013 with no date restrictions and synthesized studies qualitatively. Six primary non-clinical intervention types were examined across the 40 studies: taxation, youth prevention, smoke-free policies, mass media campaigns, marketing/advertising restrictions, and product regulation. Simulation models demonstrated the independent and combined effects of these interventions on decreasing projected future smoking prevalence. Taxation effects were the most robust, as studies examining other interventions exhibited substantial heterogeneity with regard to the outcomes and specific policies examined across models. Models should project the impact of interventions on overall tobacco use, including nicotine delivery product use, to estimate preventable health and cost-saving outcomes. Model validation, transparency, more sophisticated models, and modeling policy interactions are also needed to inform policymakers to make decisions that will minimize harm and maximize health. In this systematic review, evidence from multiple studies demonstrated the independent effect of taxation on decreasing future smoking prevalence, and models for other tobacco control interventions showed that these strategies are expected to decrease smoking, benefit population health, and are reasonable to implement from a cost perspective. Our recommendations aim to help policymakers and researchers minimize harm and

  9. Wellbeing Impacts of City Policies for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosemary Hiscock

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available To mitigate climate change, city authorities are developing policies in areas such as transportation, housing and energy use, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to their effects on greenhouse gas emissions, these policies are likely to have consequences for the wellbeing of their populations for example through changes in opportunities to take physical exercise. In order to explore the potential consequences for wellbeing, we first explore what ‘wellbeing’ is and how it can be operationalised for urban planners. In this paper, we illustrate how wellbeing can be divided into objective and subjective aspects which can be measured quantitatively; our review of measures informs the development of a theoretical model linking wellbeing to policies which cities use to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, we discuss the extent to which the links proposed in the conceptual model are supported by the literature and how cities can assess wellbeing implications of policies.

  10. Evolutions in food marketing, quantifying the impact, and policy implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cairns, Georgina

    2013-03-01

    A case study on interactive digital marketing examined the adequacy of extant policy controls and their underpinning paradigms to constrain the effects of this rapidly emerging practice. Findings were interactive digital marketing is expanding the strategies available to promote products, brands and consumer behaviours. It facilitates relational marketing; the collection of personal data for marketing; integration of the marketing mix, and provides a platform for consumers to engage in the co-creation of marketing communications. The paradigmatic logic of current policies to constrain youth-oriented food marketing does not address the interactive nature of digital marketing. The evidence base on the effects of HFSS marketing and policy interventions is based on conceptualizations of marketing as a force promoting transactions rather than interactions. Digital technologies are generating rich consumer data. Interactive digital technologies increase the complexity of the task of quantifying the impact of marketing. The rapidity of its uptake also increases urgency of need to identify appropriate effects measures. Independent analysis of commercial consumer data (appropriately transformed to protect commercial confidentiality and personal privacy) would provide evidence sources for policy on the impacts of commercial food and beverage marketing and policy controls. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Modelling climate change policies : an application of ENERGY2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timilsina, G.; Bhargava, A.; Backus, G.

    2005-01-01

    Researches and policy-makers are increasingly analyzing the economic impacts of the Kyoto Protocol at national, regional and global levels. The analyses are generally based on numerical models integrating energy, environment and the economy. Most models range from partial equilibrium types to complex multi-sector general equilibrium models, and typically represent the energy sector at an aggregate level, which limits their ability to reflect details of different sectors. In Canada, a model called ENERGY2020 has been widely used by the federal and provincial governments to analyze the sectoral and provincial impacts of implementing the Kyoto Protocol. ENERGY2020 uses stocks and flows simulation that captures the physical aspects of the processes utilizing energy, as well as the qualitative choice theory which captures human behavioural aspects. The model also has a database containing 20 years of time-series on all economic, environmental and energy variables, enabling the model to derive most parameters endogenously through econometric estimations. It has the capacity to analyze consumer and business responses over a wide range of policy initiatives such as energy environment taxes, regulatory standards for buildings, equipment and motor vehicles, grants, rebates and subsidy initiatives, consumer awareness initiatives, technology improvements, moratoriums and mandated cut-backs. It is also capable of producing long-term energy market forecasts as well as analyzing the impacts of policies in the markets. It was concluded that the model's application will serve as a useful analytical tool for a range of issues, and may be useful to developing countries and economies in transition. 6 refs., 5 figs

  12. The impacts of individualization on equity educational policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guadalupe Francia

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The present article has as its aim to illustrate and discuss the impacts of individualization strategies on equity educational policies through the analysis of individualized teaching strategies applied within the framework of educational priority policies in Sweden. The methodology used in our research work includes: (a the study of research literature about the individualization of teaching implemented in the Swedish comprehensive compulsory school; and (b the study of research literature about educational priority policies aimed at children from socially and ethnically segregated areas. Comparative research of educational policies considers the individualization of teaching carried out in the Swedish comprehensive compulsory school as a relevant explanation for the successful application of equitable educational policies in that country. However, research studies published during the 2000s in Sweden show a more complex perspective regarding the effects of individualized teaching strategies. This contribution reviews European comparative research studies on individualization strategies followed in the context of equity policies. It raises questions about the lack of analyses referring to the impacts of individualization on schools located in socially and ethnically segregated areas. It argues that this ideology tends to reduce the issue of school failure to ethnic segregation and individualized teacher support. This article claims that Individualization strategies based on differentiated curricula for students run the risk of increasing the discrimination of students for reasons of language or ethnic background. Even though the present study focuses on the Swedish experience, it can lead to a better understanding of the impacts caused by individualization strategies on equity in other European countries.

  13. The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

    2003-01-01

    Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

  14. Likely social impacts of proposed national-level policy initiatives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piernot, C.A.; Rothweiler, M.A.; Levine, A.; Crews, R.

    1981-03-01

    The results are described of an investigation of likely social effects of enacting nine proposed national-level policy initiatives to accelerate development and use of solar energy. This study is part of the Technology Assessment of Solar Energy Systems (TASE) project supported by the US Department of Energy. The report presents general social impact information about the variety of ways in which the American people could be affected by enactment of these initiatives. It identifies the effects of each initiative on individuals, groups, organizations, communities, and society as a whole. In addition, it provides a framework for organizing a myriad of impact information into a set of conceptually exclusive impact categories. It illustrates that social impacts means effects on people as individuals, groups, organizations, and communities as well as on the infrastructure of society. Finally, it demonstrates the importance of specifying an audience of impact with a case example from the residential rental market.

  15. The Impact of Active Labour Market Policy on Post-Unemployment Outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blasco, Sylvie; Rosholm, Michael

    While job search theory predicts that active labour market policies (ALMPs) can affect post-unemployment outcomes, empirical evaluations investigating transition rates have mostly focused on the impact of ALMPs on exit rates from the current unemployment spell. We use a social experiment, which w......, the positive impact of the treatment becomes smaller but remains significant. 80% of the global impact of intensification acts through the direct channel for men.......While job search theory predicts that active labour market policies (ALMPs) can affect post-unemployment outcomes, empirical evaluations investigating transition rates have mostly focused on the impact of ALMPs on exit rates from the current unemployment spell. We use a social experiment, which...... was conducted in Denmark in 2005-6, to investigate the effects of a dramatic intensification of ALMPs on reemployment stability. We investigate the nature of this impact. We estimate a duration model with lagged duration dependence to separately identify "indirect" (via shorter unemployment duration...

  16. Improving Safe Sleep Modeling in the Hospital through Policy Implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heitmann, Rachel; Nilles, Ester K; Jeans, Ashley; Moreland, Jackie; Clarke, Chris; McDonald, Morgan F; Warren, Michael D

    2017-11-01

    Introduction Sleep-related infant deaths are major contributors to Tennessee's high infant mortality rate. The purpose of this initiative was to evaluate the impact of policy-based efforts to improve modeling of safe sleep practices by health care providers in hospital settings across Tennessee. Methods Safe sleep policies were developed and implemented at 71 hospitals in Tennessee. Policies, at minimum, were required to address staff training on the American Academy of Pediatrics' safe sleep recommendations, correct modeling of infant safe sleep practices, and parent education. Hospital data on process measures related to training and results of crib audits were compiled for analysis. Results The overall observance of infants who were found with any risk factors for unsafe sleep decreased 45.6% (p ≤ 0.001) from the first crib audit to the last crib audit. Significant decreases were noted for specific risk factors, including infants found asleep not on their back, with a toy or object in the crib, and not sleeping in a crib. Significant improvements were observed at hospitals where printed materials or video were utilized for training staff compared to face-to-face training. Discussion Statewide implementation of the hospital policy intervention resulted in significant reductions in infants found in unsafe sleep situations. The most common risk factors for sleep-related infant deaths can be modeled in hospitals. This effort has the potential to reduce sleep-related infant deaths and ultimately infant mortality.

  17. Anticipating the uncertain: economic modeling and climate change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Svenn

    2012-11-01

    With this thesis I wish to contribute to the understanding of how uncertainty and the anticipation of future events by economic actors affect climate policies. The thesis consists of four papers. Two papers are analytical models which explicitly consider that emissions are caused by extracting scarce fossil fuels which in the future must be replaced by clean technologies. The other two are so called numerical integrated assessment models. Such models represent the world economy, the climate system and the interactions between those two quantitatively, complementing more abstract theoretical work. Should policy makers discriminate between subsidizing renewable energy sources such as wind or solar power, and technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS)? Focusing only on the dynamic supply of fossil fuels and hence Co{sub 2}, we find here that cheaper future renewables cause extraction to speed up, lower costs of CCS may delay it. CCS hence may dampen the dynamic inefficiency caused by the absence of comprehensive climate policies today. Does it matter whether uncertainty about future damage assessment is due to scientific complexities or stems from the political process? In paper two, I find that political and scientific uncertainties have opposing effects on the incentives to investment in renewables and the extraction of fossil fuels: The prospect of scientific learning about the climate system increases investment incentives and, ceteris paribus, slows extraction down; uncertainty about future political constellations does the opposite. The optimal carbon tax under scientific uncertainty equals expected marginal damages, whereas political uncertainty demands a tax below marginal damages that decreases over time. Does uncertainty about economic growth impact optimal climate policy today? Here we are the first to consistently analyze how uncertainty about future economic growth affects optimal emission reductions and the optimal social cost of carbon. We

  18. Final environmental impact statement: US Spent Fuel Policy. Executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-05-01

    The analysis of the environmental impacts for storage of domestic fuel shows that the impacts for the full range of alternatives considered are relatively small compared with available resources or background exposure of the population from natural radiation sources. The differences in impacts of storage of domestic fuel are attributed to the amount of fuel stored in Independent Spent Fuel Storage (ISFS) facilities, the storage time, and, to a lesser degree, the differences in spent fuel transportation. The differences between comparable alternatives of implementing the policy or not implementing the policy are small. The difference in impacts of storage of foreign fuel are attributed to the amount of fuel received under the policy and to the disposition mode analyzed. The impact of storage of foreign fuel (a small fraction of the amount of domestic fuel considered) is also small. As a result of the small differences in environmental impacts of all cases considered for foreign fuel, environmental impacts probably will not strongly influence the selection of the case that best meets US nonproliferation goals. Proliferation benefits of the various cases analyzed vary significantly. The structure and level of fee charged for storage of spent fuel will affect the degree of participation in the spent fuel storage program by utilities. However, the range of participation is within the range of alternatives analyzed in the draft EISs on storage of US and foreign fuels, for which the environmental effects were found to be relatively small. The fee computed on the basis of full recovery of government costs should not significantly affect the cost of generating nuclear power

  19. Distributional impacts of state-level energy efficiency policies in regional electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahraei-Ardakani, Mostafa; Blumsack, Seth; Kleit, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    A number of U.S. states have passed legislation targeting energy efficiency and peak demand reduction. We study one such state, Pennsylvania, within the context of PJM, a regional electricity market covering numerous different states. Our focus is on the distributive impacts of this policy—specifically how the policy is likely to impact electricity prices in different areas of Pennsylvania and in the PJM market more generally. Such spatial differences in policy impacts are difficult to model and the transmission system is often ignored in policy studies. Our model estimates supply curves on a “zonal” basis within regional electricity markets and yields information on price and fuel utilization within each zone. We use the zonal supply curves estimated by our model to study regional impacts of energy-efficiency legislation on utilities both inside and outside of Pennsylvania. For most utilities in Pennsylvania, it would reduce the influence of natural gas on electricity price formation and increase the influence of coal. It would also save 2.1 to 2.8 percent of total energy cost in Pennsylvania in a year similar to 2009. The savings are lower than 0.5 percent in other PJM states and the prices may slightly increase in Washington, DC area. - Highlights: ► We model distributional impacts of energy efficiency and conservation policies. ► We use our model to study the impacts of Pennsylvania act 129. ► We estimate $235 million in annual savings for PA and $275 million for PJM. ► The prices decrease in most of the zones but the impacts are not uniform. ► The influence of coal on electricity prices increases relative to natural gas.

  20. An economic analysis of transportation fuel policies in Brazil: Fuel choice, land use, and environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuñez, Hector M.; Önal, Hayri

    2016-01-01

    Brazil uses taxes, subsidies, and blending mandates as policy instruments to manage and stabilize its transportation fuel markets. The fuel sector has been very dynamic in recent years due to frequent policy adjustments and variable market conditions. In this paper, we use a price endogenous economic simulation model to analyze the impacts of such policy adjustments under various challenging conditions in the global ethanol and sugar markets. Our analysis specifically focuses on Brazilian producers' supply responses, consumers' driving demand and fuel choice, ethanol trade, land use, greenhouse gas emissions, and social welfare. The model results show that (i) under a low ethanol blending rate, conventional vehicles would be driven significantly less while flex-fuel and ethanol-dedicated vehicles would not be affected significantly; (ii) lowering the fuel taxes adversely affects the competitiveness of sugarcane ethanol against gasoline blends, thus lowering producers' surplus; and (iii) while a reduction in fuel taxes is advantageous in terms of overall social welfare, it has serious environmental impacts by increasing the GHG emissions from transportation fuels consumed in Brazil. - Highlights: • We examine the economic and environmental impacts of Brazilian fuel policies. • We also analyze impacts under different sugar and ethanol markets conditions. • Lowering blending rate reduces distance driven by conventional cars. • Lowering fuel tax rates affects competitiveness of ethanol against gasoline blend. • Reducing fuel tax rates has dramatic environmental impacts by increasing emissions.

  1. Sources of change in foreign policy. A review of foreign policy models for developing countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alba E. Gámez

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available The study of what could be called the reorientation of State foreign policy is not a new phenomenon. Changes in alliances, economic partners and attitudes in the face of international issues have been reflected in myriad texts. Nevertheless, few theoretical frameworksdeal with this issue as an area of study in and of itself. Overcoming this situation would contribute to identifying and comparing the changes in attitude and discourse in the relations between countries, especially in the case of developing countries, and, by extension, thesources of these changes. This article reviews the different models for the analysis of foreign policy, using the conceptual framework of Hermann (1990 as its starting point. This framework suggests the existence of four graded levels of change which allow for studying forms of change which are subtle but important in foreign policy; it also offers a reasoned analysis for testing the relative importance of their sources. This conceptual framework can be situated in the traditional division of levels of analysis: the characteristics of the leader, bureaucratic proposer, internal adjustment, and external impact; and, while it does not provide a conclusive answer, it may be a useful tool in clarifying the ways of using empirical evidence and establishing the relative importance of the sources of change in foreign policy orientation.

  2. Impact of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy on Indonesian Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rossanto Dwi HANDOYO

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to investigate the effect of fiscal and monetary policy on Indonesian Stock price as well as main sectors stock price such as agricultural, mining, manufacture, and financial sector indexes. We consider the world oil price as a foreign variable that will influence domestic economy as in regular small open economy model. In this paper, we employ the Monte Carlo algorithm to Near-SVAR models (If some of the VAR equations have regressors not included in the others. We find that there is a positive stock price response to monetary policy shock both aggregated and sectoral stock price. In term of interaction between fiscal policy shock and stock market, we find that all sectors respond negative relationship. From this empirical finding, fiscal policy crowd out private sector activity in market, thus, its effect will be impotent in economy. We also provide the evidence that not only both policies are able to influence the stock price individually, but also the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy is important in explaining stock market performance.

  3. Systems Thinking and Simulation Modeling to Inform Childhood Obesity Policy and Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Kenneth E; Kibbe, Debra L; Ferencik, Rachel; Soderquist, Chris; Phillips, Mary Ann; Vall, Emily Anne; Minyard, Karen J

    In 2007, 31.7% of Georgia adolescents in grades 9-12 were overweight or obese. Understanding the impact of policies and interventions on obesity prevalence among young people can help determine statewide public health and policy strategies. This article describes a systems model, originally launched in 2008 and updated in 2014, that simulates the impact of policy interventions on the prevalence of childhood obesity in Georgia through 2034. In 2008, using information from peer-reviewed reports and quantitative estimates by experts in childhood obesity, physical activity, nutrition, and health economics and policy, a group of legislators, legislative staff members, and experts trained in systems thinking and system dynamics modeling constructed a model simulating the impact of policy interventions on the prevalence of childhood obesity in Georgia through 2034. Use of the 2008 model contributed to passage of a bill requiring annual fitness testing of schoolchildren and stricter enforcement of physical education requirements. We updated the model in 2014. With no policy change, the updated model projects that the prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged ≤18 in Georgia would hold at 18% from 2014 through 2034. Mandating daily school physical education (which would reduce prevalence to 12%) and integrating moderate to vigorous physical activity into elementary classrooms (which would reduce prevalence to 10%) would have the largest projected impact. Enacting all policies simultaneously would lower the prevalence of childhood obesity from 18% to 3%. Systems thinking, especially with simulation models, facilitates understanding of complex health policy problems. Using a simulation model to educate legislators, educators, and health experts about the policies that have the greatest short- and long-term impact should encourage strategic investment in low-cost, high-return policies.

  4. Models of policy-making and their relevance for drug research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritter, Alison; Bammer, Gabriele

    2010-07-01

    Researchers are often frustrated by their inability to influence policy. We describe models of policy-making to provide new insights and a more realistic assessment of research impacts on policy. We describe five prominent models of policy-making and illustrate them with examples from the alcohol and drugs field, before drawing lessons for researchers. Policy-making is a complex and messy process, with different models describing different elements. We start with the incrementalist model, which highlights small amendments to policy, as occurs in school-based drug education. A technical/rational approach then outlines the key steps in a policy process from identification of problems and their causes, through to examination and choice of response options, and subsequent implementation and evaluation. There is a clear role for research, as we illustrate with the introduction of new medications, but this model largely ignores the dominant political aspects of policy-making. Such political aspects include the influence of interest groups, and we describe models about power and pressure groups, as well as advocacy coalitions, and the challenges they pose for researchers. These are illustrated with reference to the alcohol industry, and interest group conflicts in establishing a Medically Supervised Injecting Centre. Finally, we describe the multiple streams framework, which alerts researchers to 'windows of opportunity', and we show how these were effectively exploited in policy for cannabis law reform in Western Australia. Understanding models of policy-making can help researchers maximise the uptake of their work and advance evidence-informed policy.

  5. The impact of government policy on preference for NEVs: The evidence from China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Xian; Wang, Ke; Hao, Yu; Fan, Jing-Li; Wei, Yi-Ming

    2013-01-01

    To reduce gasoline consumption and emissions, the Chinese government has introduced a series of preferential policies to encourage the purchase of new energy vehicles (NEVs). However, enthusiasm for the private purchase of NEVs appears to be very low. This timely paper addresses the need for an empirical study to explore this phenomenon by identifying purchase motivations of potential NEV consumers and examining the impact of government policies introduced to promote NEVs in China. A questionnaire survey was carried out. The acceptance of NEVs is measured in three different logistic models: the willingness of consumers to purchase NEVs, the purchasing time, and the acceptable price. The results showed that financial benefits, performance attributes, environmental awareness and psychological needs are the four most important factors influencing consumers’ acceptance of NEVs. Among these, performance attributes rather than financial benefits are the most important indicator. The moderating effect of government policies to relations between purchasing intention, time and price is not strong as respected while the policy implications are clear that the ‘public awareness of government policy’ functions as a moderator in the process of acceptance. These findings could give some hints to the government to make better NEV industry policy. - Highlights: • This paper timely studies the private purchasing behaviors of NEVs in China. • Purchase motivations of NEVs and the impact of government policies are examined. • Performance attribute is the most important indicator to acceptance of NEVs. • The moderating effect of government policies is not strong as respected

  6. Macroeconomic Policies and their Impact on Poverty Alleviation in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Rashid Amjad; A.R. Kemal

    1997-01-01

    The paper provides a consistent time-series of poverty estimates for the period 1963- 64 to 1992-93 for both the rural as well as the urban areas, examines the influence of macroeconomic policies on the poverty levels, analyses the impact of Structural Adjustment Programmes on the levels of poverty, and suggests a strategy for poverty alleviation in Pakistan. The paper explores in particular the influence on poverty of such factors as economic growth, agricultural growth, terms of trade for t...

  7. Impacts of Policies on Poverty: The Definition of Poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Bellù, Lorenzo Giovanni; Liberati, Paolo

    2005-01-01

    This module illustrates how poverty can be defined in the context of policy impact analysis. After reporting and discussing the definition of poverty as “the lack of, or the inability to achieve, a socially acceptable standard of living”, it discusses the mono-dimensional and multi-dimensional approaches to the definition of poverty. Furthermore, the module focuses on the absolute and the relative concept of poverty, also drawing some analogies and differences with the concept of food secu...

  8. Impact of Dividend Policy on Share Price Volatility: UK Evidence

    OpenAIRE

    ZHANG, YIDING

    2012-01-01

    This research attempts to shed light on the linkage between dividend policy and share price volatility in the context of UK. As a rework and extension of pervious research, the study is expected to reveal the potential impact of dividend change on the fluctuation of stock price, taking existing theoretical and empirical framework as basis. A snapshot of UK economy is provided after the preceding introductory section. The third chapter consists of a review of theories and empirical studies. Wi...

  9. The Effect of Mitigation Policy on Regional Climate Impacts on the U.S. Electric Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, S. M.; Sun, Y.; Strzepek, K.; McFarland, J.; Boehlert, B.; Fant, C.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change can influence the U.S. electricity sector in many ways, the nature of which can be shaped by energy and environmental policy choices. Changing temperatures affect electricity demand largely through heating and cooling needs, and temperatures also affect generation and transmission system performance. Altered precipitation patterns affect the regional and seasonal distribution of surface water runoff, which changes hydropower operation and thermal cooling water availability. The extent to which these stimuli influence U.S. power sector operation and planning will depend to some extent on whether or not proactive policies are enacted to mitigate these impacts. Mitigation policies such as CO2 emissions limits or technology restrictions can change the makeup of the electricity system while reducing the extent of climate change itself. We use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), a U.S. electric sector capacity expansion model, to explore electric sector evolution through 2050 under alternative climate and policy assumptions. The model endogenously represents climate impacts on load, power system performance, cooling water availability, and hydropower, allowing internally consistent system responses to climate change along with projected technology, market, and policy conditions. We compare climate impacts across 5 global circulation models for a 8.5 W/m2 representative concentration pathway (RCP) without a climate mitigation policy and a 4.5 W/m2 RCP with climate mitigation. Climate drivers affect the capacity and generation mix at the national and regional levels, with relative growth of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies depending on local electricity system characteristics. These differences affect regional economic impacts, measured here as changes to electricity price and system costs. Mitigation policy reduces the economic and system impacts of climate change largely by moderating

  10. Impacts of Sugar Import Policy on Sugar Production in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Suryantoro, Agustinus; Susilo, Albertus Magnus; Supriyono, Supriyono

    2013-01-01

    Production of sugar unful lled consumption of Indonesia society. The lack of consumption and productionhave ful lled by import. Assumption national consumption 2,7 million ton, Indonesia will import sugar in 2013predicted about 300.000 ton (Tempo.co, August, 21, 2012).The aims in general of this research are to understand the impact of sugar import policy on sugar production.Especially (1) to understand the factors that in uence sugar import price, (2) to understand impact of sugarimport pric...

  11. Coal transport demand in Western Europe and Japan: Impacts of energy market liberalisation and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golombek, Rolf; Kittelsen, Sverre A.C.; Maestad, Ottar

    2005-12-01

    Western Europe and Japan are among the main importers of coal. Climate policies following the Kyoto agreement are creating pressure to substitute away from coal and turn to less emission intensive energy sources. At the same time, liberalizations of energy markets in Europe and Japan are likely to cause reduced electricity prices, which will boost the overall demand for electricity. This paper analyses the combined effect of electricity market liberalization and climate policies on the international coal trade. Using the numerical equilibrium model LIBEMOD, we find that while liberalization of electricity markets will imply a large increase in aggregate coal transport demand, the negative impact of climate policies may be even larger, in particular if Russia and Ukraine utilise their market power in the market for emission permits. If this market power is exploited, the total effect of liberalisation and climate policy - when including the impact of general economic growth - is a 20% reduction in aggregate coal transport between 2000 and 2010. Further, impacts differ markedly between Western Europe and Japan. A main difference is that liberalisation has a much more positive - and climate policies have a much stronger negative - impact on steam coal demand in Western Europe than in Japan

  12. Federal policies for renewable electricity: Impacts and interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palmer, Karen; Paul, Anthony; Woerman, Matt; Steinberg, Daniel C.

    2011-01-01

    Three types of policies that are prominent in the federal debate over addressing greenhouse gas emissions in the United States are a cap-and-trade program (CTP) on emissions, a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) for electricity production, and tax credits for renewable electricity producers. Each of these policies would have different consequences, and combinations of these policies could induce interactions yielding a whole that is not the sum of its parts. This paper utilizes the Haiku electricity market model to evaluate the economic and technology outcomes, climate benefits, and cost-effectiveness of three such policies and all possible combinations of the policies. A central finding is that the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions reductions from CTP can be significantly greater than those from the other policies, even for similar levels of renewable electricity production, since of the three policies, CTP is the only one that distinguishes electricity generated by coal and natural gas. It follows that CTP is the most cost-effective among these approaches at reducing CO 2 emissions. An alternative compliance payment mechanism in an RPS program could substantially affect renewables penetration, and the electricity price effects of the policies hinge partly on the regulatory structure of electricity markets, which varies across the country. - Research highlights: → Climate benefits of cap-and-trade are greater than of tax credits or RPS. → Cap-and-trade is more cost-effective at reducing emissions than tax credits or RPS. → Tax credits are a subsidy to production that raises electricity consumption. → Alternative compliance payment can substantially affect the outcome of RPS.

  13. The Impact of Different Policy Choices on Income Distribution After ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract: Government controls on the price of food through stock adjustment and through imports of food are explicitly modelled in a computable general equilibrium for Zimbabwe. The results of policy simulations show that allowing the price of food to increase during a drought period increases incomes of food producers ...

  14. Transport Choice Modeling for the Evaluation of New Transport Policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ander Pijoan

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying the impact of the application of sustainable transport policies is essential in order to mitigate effects of greenhouse gas emissions produced by the transport sector. One of the most common approaches used for this purpose is that of traffic modelling and simulation, which consists of emulating the operation of an entire road network. This article presents the results of fitting 8 well known data science methods for transport choice modelling, the area in which more research is needed. The models have been trained with information from Biscay province in Spain in order to match as many of its commuters as possible. Results show that the best models correctly forecast more than 51% of the trips recorded. Finally, the results have been validated with a second data set from the Silesian Voivodeship in Poland, showing that all models indeed maintain their forecasting ability.

  15. Impact of Different Policies on Unhealthy Dietary Behaviors in an Adult Population of Los Angeles County: An Agent-Based Simulation Model

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Donglan

    2014-01-01

    A typical American diet is comprised of too much high-calorie foods and insufficient fruits and vegetables. Many theories and models targeting unhealthy dietary behaviors focus exclusively on people as individuals, while behavior theories such as multi-level theory of population health emphasize the social component in human cognitive habits and behaviors, providing an alternative paradigm to understand dietary behaviors. This dissertation incorporates those behavioral theories into an agent-...

  16. National Environmental Policy Act guidance: A model process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angle, B.M.; Lockhart, V.A.T.; Sema, B.; Tuott, L.C.; Irving, J.S.

    1995-04-01

    The ''Model National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Process'' includes: References to regulations, guidance documents, and plans; training programs; procedures; and computer databases. Legislative Acts and reference documents from Congress, US Department of Energy, and Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company provide the bases for conducting NEPA at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) NEPA / Permitting Department, the Contractor Environmental Organization (CEO) is responsible for developing and maintaining LITCO NEPA and permitting policies, guidance, and procedures. The CEO develops procedures to conduct environmental evaluations based on NEPA, Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) regulations, and DOE guidance. This procedure includes preparation or support of environmental checklists, categorical exclusion determinations, environmental assessment determinations, environmental assessments, and environmental impact statements. In addition, the CEO uses this information to train personnel conducting environmental evaluations at the INEL. Streamlining these procedures fosters efficient use of resources, quality documents, and better decisions on proposed actions

  17. The Impact of Transport Mode and Carbon Policy on Low-Carbon Retailer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Zheng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Low-carbon retail has become a strategic target for many developed and developing economies. This study discusses the impact of transport mode and carbon policy on achieving this objective. We investigated the retailer transportation mode, pricing, and ordering strategy, which all consider carbon-sensitive demand under the carbon cap-and-trade policy. We analyzed the optimal decision of retailer and their maximum profit affected by transport mode and cap-and-trade policy parameters. Results show that the two elements (cap-and-trade policy and consumer low-carbon awareness could encourage the retailer to choose low-carbon transportation. The two elements also influence the profit and optimal decision of retailer. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the applicability of the model.

  18. Impacts of the Fukushima Daiichi Accident on Nuclear Development Policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vance, Robert; Henderson, David; ); Moore, Laurie

    2017-01-01

    The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident has had an impact on the development of nuclear power around the world. While the accident was followed by thorough technical assessments of the safety of all operating nuclear power plants, and a general increase in safety requirements has been observed worldwide, national policy responses have been more varied. These responses have ranged from countries phasing out or accelerating decisions to phase out nuclear energy to countries reducing their reliance on nuclear power or on the contrary continuing to pursue or expand their nuclear power programs. This study examines changes to policies, and plans and attempts to distinguish the impact of the Fukushima Daiichi accident from other factors that have affected policy-making in relation to nuclear energy, in particular electricity market economics, financing challenges and competition from other sources (gas, coal and renewables). It also examines changes over time to long-term, quantitative country projections, which reveal interesting trends on the possible role of nuclear energy in future energy systems. (authors)

  19. Model-Driven Configuration of SELinux Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agreiter, Berthold; Breu, Ruth

    The need for access control in computer systems is inherent. However, the complexity to configure such systems is constantly increasing which affects the overall security of a system negatively. We think that it is important to define security requirements on a non-technical level while taking the application domain into respect in order to have a clear and separated view on security configuration (i.e. unblurred by technical details). On the other hand, security functionality has to be tightly integrated with the system and its development process in order to provide comprehensive means of enforcement. In this paper, we propose a systematic approach based on model-driven security configuration to leverage existing operating system security mechanisms (SELinux) for realising access control. We use UML models and develop a UML profile to satisfy these needs. Our goal is to exploit a comprehensive protection mechanism while rendering its security policy manageable by a domain specialist.

  20. The Relevance of Using Mathematical Models in Macroeconomic Policies Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nora Mihail

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a look of the principal’s mathematical models – starting with Theil, Hansen and Tinbergen work – and their results used to analysis and design macroeconomic policies. In modeling field changes are very fast in theoretical aspects of modeling the many problems of macroeconomic policies and in using in practice the different political models elaboration. The article points out the problems of static and dynamic theory used in macro-policies modeling.

  1. The Relevance of Using Mathematical Models in Macroeconomic Policies Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nora Mihail

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a look of the principal’s mathematical models – starting with Theil, Hansen and Tinbergen work – and their results used to analysis and design macroeconomic policies. In modeling field changes are very fast in theoretical aspects of modeling the many problems of macroeconomic policies and in using in practice the different political models elaboration. The article points out the problems of static and dynamic theory used in macro-policies modeling.

  2. Impact of forced separation policy on incarcerated postpartum mothers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Angelina N

    2009-08-01

    The number of incarcerated women in the United States is steadily increasing with 9% giving birth while serving time. Mothers and babies are routinely separated immediately and during most of the postpartum period. This qualitative study examines the impact of this policy by exploring the nature and meaning of the mother-infant bonding experience when the mothers know separation is coming. Twelve incarcerated postpartum mothers were interviewed during the early postpartum period about their antepartum and postpartum relationships with their babies. Qualitative data analysis produced four relational themes: (a) "a love connection," (b) "everything was great until I birthed," (c) "feeling empty and missing a part of me," and (d) "I don't try to think too far in advance." Results of this qualitative study provide information to professionals exploring gender-sensitive prison policies for the growing female population.

  3. Social Impact Management Plans: Innovation in corporate and public policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franks, Daniel M.; Vanclay, Frank

    2013-01-01

    Social Impact Assessment (SIA) has traditionally been practiced as a predictive study for the regulatory approval of major projects, however, in recent years the drivers and domain of focus for SIA have shifted. This paper details the emergence of Social Impact Management Plans (SIMPs) and undertakes an analysis of innovations in corporate and public policy that have put in place ongoing processes – assessment, management and monitoring – to better identify the nature and scope of the social impacts that might occur during implementation and to proactively respond to change across the lifecycle of developments. Four leading practice examples are analyzed. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) Performance Standards require the preparation of Environmental and Social Management Plans for all projects financed by the IFC identified as having significant environmental and social risks. Anglo American, a major resources company, has introduced a Socio-Economic Assessment Toolbox, which requires mine sites to undertake regular assessments and link these assessments with their internal management systems, monitoring activities and a Social Management Plan. In South Africa, Social and Labour Plans are submitted with an application for a mining or production right. In Queensland, Australia, Social Impact Management Plans were developed as part of an Environmental Impact Statement, which included assessment of social impacts. Collectively these initiatives, and others, are a practical realization of theoretical conceptions of SIA that include management and monitoring as core components of SIA. The paper concludes with an analysis of the implications for the practice of impact assessment including a summary of key criteria for the design and implementation of effective SIMPs. -- Highlights: • Social impact management plans are effective strategies to manage social issues. • They are developed in partnership with regulatory agencies, investors and community.

  4. Social Impact Management Plans: Innovation in corporate and public policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franks, Daniel M., E-mail: d.franks@uq.edu.au [Centre for Social Responsibility in Mining, The University of Queensland, Sustainable Minerals Institute, St Lucia, Brisbane, Queensland 4072 (Australia); Vanclay, Frank, E-mail: frank.vanclay@rug.nl [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, The University of Groningen, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen (Netherlands)

    2013-11-15

    Social Impact Assessment (SIA) has traditionally been practiced as a predictive study for the regulatory approval of major projects, however, in recent years the drivers and domain of focus for SIA have shifted. This paper details the emergence of Social Impact Management Plans (SIMPs) and undertakes an analysis of innovations in corporate and public policy that have put in place ongoing processes – assessment, management and monitoring – to better identify the nature and scope of the social impacts that might occur during implementation and to proactively respond to change across the lifecycle of developments. Four leading practice examples are analyzed. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) Performance Standards require the preparation of Environmental and Social Management Plans for all projects financed by the IFC identified as having significant environmental and social risks. Anglo American, a major resources company, has introduced a Socio-Economic Assessment Toolbox, which requires mine sites to undertake regular assessments and link these assessments with their internal management systems, monitoring activities and a Social Management Plan. In South Africa, Social and Labour Plans are submitted with an application for a mining or production right. In Queensland, Australia, Social Impact Management Plans were developed as part of an Environmental Impact Statement, which included assessment of social impacts. Collectively these initiatives, and others, are a practical realization of theoretical conceptions of SIA that include management and monitoring as core components of SIA. The paper concludes with an analysis of the implications for the practice of impact assessment including a summary of key criteria for the design and implementation of effective SIMPs. -- Highlights: • Social impact management plans are effective strategies to manage social issues. • They are developed in partnership with regulatory agencies, investors and community.

  5. Information Security Policy Modeling for Network Security Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry Sergeevich Chernyavskiy

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Policy management for network security systems (NSSs is one of the most topical issues of network security management. Incorrect configurations of NSSs lead to system outages and appearance of vulnerabilities. Moreover, policy management process is a time-consuming task, which includes significant amount of manual work. These factors reduce efficiency of NSSs’ utilization. The paper discusses peculiarities of policy management process and existing approaches to policy modeling, presents a model aimed to formalize policies for NSSs independently on NSSs’ platforms and select the most effective NSSs for implementation of the policies.

  6. Impact of electrical intertie capacity on carbon policy effectiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    English, J.; Niet, T.; Lyseng, B.; Palmer-Wilson, K.; Keller, V.; Moazzen, I.; Pitt, L.; Wild, P.; Rowe, A.

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates the potential cost and emissions reductions that result from an increase in electricity transmission capacity between Canada's two westernmost provinces: Alberta, a fossil fuel dominated jurisdiction, and British Columbia, a predominantly hydroelectric jurisdiction. A bottom-up model is used to find the least cost electricity generation mix in Alberta and British Columbia under different carbon policies. The long-term evolution of the electricity system is determined by minimizing net present cost of electricity generation for the time span of 2010–2060. Different levels of intertie capacity expansion are considered together with a variety of carbon tax and carbon cap scenarios. Results indicate that increased intertie capacity reduces the cost of electricity and emissions under carbon pricing policies. However, the expandable intertie does not encourage greater adoption of variable renewable generation. Instead, it is used to move low-cost energy from the United States to Alberta. The optimal intertie capacity and cost reduction of increased interconnectivity increases with more restrictive carbon policies. - Highlights: • A techno-economic optimization model is used to examine electricity generation in western Canada. • Interprovincial electricity transmission can decrease carbon abatement costs. • Market conditions can reduce the expected synergy between storage hydroelectricity and variable renewable generation. • Inconsistent carbon policies between regions mean emissions are moved, not avoided.

  7. Optimal maintenance policies in incomplete repair models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kahle, Waltraud

    2007-01-01

    We consider an incomplete repair model, that is, the impact of repair is not minimal as in the homogeneous Poisson process and not 'as good as new' as in renewal processes but lies between these boundary cases. The repairs are assumed to impact the failure intensity following a virtual age process of the general form proposed by Kijima. In previous works field data from an industrial setting were used to fit several models. In most cases the estimated rate of occurrence of failures was that of an underlying exponential distribution of the time between failures. In this paper, it is shown that there exist maintenance schedules under which the failure behavior of the failure-repair process becomes a homogeneous Poisson process

  8. The impact of the endogenous technical change on climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sassi, O.

    2008-11-01

    This research aims at revisiting the 'autonomous vs. induced' debate on the costs of climate policies, first by broadening the framework of the technical change induction to other economical sectors, and then by attempting to go beyond the concept of technical change induction and think in terms of a structural change induction. After a review of modes of representation of the technical progress in economical prospective models for the assessment of climate policies, the author presents the IMACLIM-R model, a recursive general equilibrium model which simulates the evolution of the world economy within 12 regions and 12 sectors between 2001 and 2100. The results obtained with this model are then presented and discussed, in the case of a reference scenario which displays a significant change towards a carbon-intensive path. These results stress the risks related to a 'laissez faire' attitude. The author explores the consequences in terms of climate policies with a more or less extended taking into account of phenomena of induction of technical and structural changes

  9. Little emperors: behavioral impacts of China's One-Child Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, L; Erkal, N; Gangadharan, L; Meng, X

    2013-02-22

    We document that China's One-Child Policy (OCP), one of the most radical approaches to limiting population growth, has produced significantly less trusting, less trustworthy, more risk-averse, less competitive, more pessimistic, and less conscientious individuals. Our data were collected from economics experiments conducted with 421 individuals born just before and just after the OCP's introduction in 1979. Surveys to elicit personality traits were also used. We used the exogenous imposition of the OCP to identify the causal impact of being an only child, net of family background effects. The OCP thus has significant ramifications for Chinese society.

  10. Affective Policy Performance Evaluation Model: A Case of an International Trade Policy Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inwon Kang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Firms often superficially adopt policies because of governmental rules and regulations, so as to avoid penalties or to gain benefits. However, the evaluation and characterization of those kinds of adoptions as policy performance distorts the true level of policy performance: social sustainability. This study proposes an affective policy performance evaluation model. The attitudes of employees toward adopting a policy are characterized into genuine and superficial compliance. Their behaviors are explained through voluntary and opportunistic adoptions. In order to validate the proposed model, a survey was conducted on an international trade policy target group (n = 216 for the Strategic Trade Control System (STCS, in order to understand their attitudes toward adopting the policy. The survey data was analyzed by a structural equation modeling method. The measures of the factors in the proposed model are adopted and modified from existing studies. The most effective resources of policy implementation on the firms’ genuine and superficial compliance and ultimately on the firms’ voluntary policy adoption are revealed through the analysis. Based on the results, this study presents a strategy for allocating and managing policy implementation resources to exclusively encourage firms’ trade policy adoptions.

  11. The impact of Nordic countries' family friendly policies on employment, wages, and children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gupta, Nabanita Datta; Smith, Nina; Verner, Mette

    2008-01-01

    -friendly policies mainly directed towards giving mothers the right to be on long paid maternal leave have adverse effects on women's wages with consequences for gender equality. Indeed, extensive family-friendly schemes may even have created a `system-based glass ceiling' hindering women's career progression......The Nordic countries at the same time exhibit a remarkably high participation rate of mothers and a more moderate decline in fertility rates compared to other Western countries. This has been attributed to the fact that the welfare state model and, especially, the family friendly policies chosen...... in the Nordic countries are unique. In this paper we evaluate the impact of Nordic countries' family friendly policies on employment, wages and children's well-being. We demonstrate that, although the `Nordic model' has been successful in boosting female employment, it is a costly solution. Furthermore, family...

  12. A Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model for Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, R. W.; Hill, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    Although integrated assessments of climate change policy have frequently identified nuclear energy as a promising alternative to fossil fuels, these studies have often treated nuclear waste disposal very simply. Simple assumptions about nuclear waste are problematic because they may not be adequate to capture relevant costs and uncertainties, which could result in suboptimal policy choices. Modeling nuclear waste management costs is a cross-disciplinary, multi-scale problem that involves economic, geologic and environmental processes that operate at vastly different temporal scales. Similarly, the climate-related costs and benefits of nuclear energy are dependent on environmental sensitivity to CO2 emissions and radiation, nuclear energy's ability to offset carbon emissions, and the risk of nuclear accidents, factors which are all deeply uncertain. Alternative value systems further complicate the problem by suggesting different approaches to valuing intergenerational impacts. Effective policy assessment of nuclear energy requires an integrated approach to modeling nuclear waste management that (1) bridges disciplinary and temporal gaps, (2) supports an iterative, adaptive process that responds to evolving understandings of uncertainties, and (3) supports a broad range of value systems. This work develops the Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model (NWMCM). NWMCM provides a flexible framework for evaluating the cost of nuclear waste management across a range of technology pathways and value systems. We illustrate how NWMCM can support policy analysis by estimating how different nuclear waste disposal scenarios developed using the NWMCM framework affect the results of a recent integrated assessment study of alternative energy futures and their effects on the cost of achieving carbon abatement targets. Results suggest that the optimism reflected in previous works is fragile: Plausible nuclear waste management costs and discount rates appropriate for intergenerational cost

  13. Clean Energy Policy Analysis: Impact Analysis of Potential Clean Energy Policy Options for the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busche, S.; Doris, E.; Braccio, R.; Lippert, D.; Finch, P.; O' Toole, D.; Fetter, J.

    2010-04-01

    This report provides detailed analyses of 21 clean energy policy options considered by the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative working groups for recommendation to the 2010 Hawaii State Legislature. The report considers the impact each policy may have on ratepayers, businesses, and the state in terms of energy saved, clean energy generated, and the financial costs and benefits. The analyses provide insight into the possible impacts, both qualitative and quantitative, that these policies may have in Hawaii based on the experience with these policies elsewhere. As much as possible, the analyses incorporate Hawaii-specific context to reflect the many unique aspects of energy use in the State of Hawaii.

  14. Six challenges in modelling for public health policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalf, C J E; Edmunds, W J; Lessler, J

    2015-03-01

    The World Health Organisation's definition of public health refers to all organized measures to prevent disease, promote health, and prolong life among the population as a whole (World Health Organization, 2014). Mathematical modelling plays an increasingly important role in helping to guide the most high impact and cost-effective means of achieving these goals. Public health programmes are usually implemented over a long period of time with broad benefits to many in the community. Clinical trials are seldom large enough to capture these effects. Observational data may be used to evaluate a programme after it is underway, but have limited value in helping to predict the future impact of a proposed policy. Furthermore, public health practitioners are often required to respond to new threats, for which there is little or no previous data on which to assess the threat. Computational and mathematical models can help to assess potential threats and impacts early in the process, and later aid in interpreting data from complex and multifactorial systems. As such, these models can be critical tools in guiding public health action. However, there are a number of challenges in achieving a successful interface between modelling and public health. Here, we discuss some of these challenges. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Six challenges in modelling for public health policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.J.E. Metcalf

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The World Health Organisation's definition of public health refers to all organized measures to prevent disease, promote health, and prolong life among the population as a whole (World Health Organization, 2014. Mathematical modelling plays an increasingly important role in helping to guide the most high impact and cost-effective means of achieving these goals. Public health programmes are usually implemented over a long period of time with broad benefits to many in the community. Clinical trials are seldom large enough to capture these effects. Observational data may be used to evaluate a programme after it is underway, but have limited value in helping to predict the future impact of a proposed policy. Furthermore, public health practitioners are often required to respond to new threats, for which there is little or no previous data on which to assess the threat. Computational and mathematical models can help to assess potential threats and impacts early in the process, and later aid in interpreting data from complex and multifactorial systems. As such, these models can be critical tools in guiding public health action. However, there are a number of challenges in achieving a successful interface between modelling and public health. Here, we discuss some of these challenges.

  16. The Impact of Monetary Policy on Bank Credit During Economic Crisis: Indonesia's Experience

    OpenAIRE

    Mongid, Abdul

    2008-01-01

    The monetary policy mechanism by which monetary policy was transmitted to thereal economy had emerged as the pivotal discussion topic recently. This paper tried to discussthe impact of Bank Indonesia’s monetary policy on loan bank. By using simple loan bankframework we concluded that monetary policies were able to influence loan bank. Themonetary variables such as discount rate policy, base money and exchange rate policy werevery important in determining the banking credit. As the credit was ...

  17. Developing Policy for Urban Autonomous Vehicles: Impact on Congestion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Metz

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available An important problem for surface transport is road traffic congestion, which is ubiquitous and difficult to mitigate. Accordingly, a question for policymakers is the possible impact on congestion of autonomous vehicles. It seems likely that the main impact of vehicle automation will not be seen until driverless vehicles are sufficiently safe for use amid general traffic on urban streets. Shared use driverless vehicles could reduce the cost of taxis and a wider range of public transport vehicles could be economic. Individually owned autonomous vehicles would have the ability to travel unoccupied and may need to be regulated where this might add to congestion. It is possible that autonomous vehicles could provide mobility services at lower cost and wider scope, such that private car use in urban areas could decline and congestion reduce. City authorities should be alert to these possibilities in developing transport policy.

  18. Impact of socially responsible human resources policies on intellectual capital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesus Barrena-Martínez

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This research focuses on the benefits that social responsibility can report on the area of human resources, examined the impact of a socially responsible configuration of human resource policies and practices in the generation value process for the company, and more specifically in its intellectual capital. Design/methodology/approach: The study performed a regression analysis, testing the individual effects of socially responsible human resource policies on intellectual capital, broken down into three main variables such as human, social and organizational capital. Findings: The results shed light on how the introduction of socially responsible aspects in the management of human resources can facilitate the exchange of knowledge, skills and attitudes human--capital; lead to improvements in communication, trust, cooperation among employees social-capital and, in turn, generates an institutionalized knowledge encoded in the own organizational culture –organizational capital–. Research limitations/implications: The study only provides information from large companies with over 250 employees. Practical implications: There are important implications in the measure of corporate social responsibility concerns in the area of human resources. Social implications: Also important intangible effects on non-economic variables are confirmed, such as intellectual capital. Originality/value: The value of the study lies in its novelty, testing socially responsible configurations of human resources as well as the direct effects of different policies on intellectual capital.

  19. Econometric Model of Rice Policy Based On Presidential Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abadi Sembiring, Surya; Hutauruk, Julia

    2018-01-01

    The objective of research is to build an econometric model based on Presidential Instruction rice policy. The data was monthly time series from March 2005 to September 2009. Rice policy model specification using simultaneous equation, consisting of 14 structural equations and four identity equation, which was estimated using Two Stages Least Squares (2SLS) method. The results show that: (1) an increase of government purchasing price of dried harvest paddy has a positive impact on to increase in total rice production and community rice stock, (2) an increase community rice stock lead to decrease the rice imports, (3) an increase of the realization of the distribution of subsidized ZA fertilizers and the realization of the distribution of subsidized NPK fertilizers has a positive impact on to increase in total rice production and community rice stock and to reduce rice imports, (4) the price of the dried harvest paddy is highly responsive to the water content of dried harvest paddy both the short run and long run, (5) the quantity of rice imported is highly responsive to the imported rice price, both short run and long run.

  20. The potential impacts of climate-change policy on freshwater use in thermoelectric power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chandel, Munish K.; Pratson, Lincoln F.; Jackson, Robert B.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change policy involving a price on carbon would change the mix of power plants and the amount of water they withdraw and consume to generate electricity. We analyze what these changes could entail for electricity generation in the United States under four climate policy scenarios that involve different costs for emitting CO 2 and different technology options for reducing emissions out to the year 2030. The potential impacts of the scenarios on the U.S. electric system are modeled using a modified version of the U.S. National Energy Modeling System and water-use factors for thermoelectric power plants derived from electric utility data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Under all the climate-policy scenarios, freshwater withdrawals decline 2-14% relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of no U.S. climate policy. Furthermore, water use decreases as the price on CO 2 under the climate policies increases. At relatively high carbon prices (>$50/tonne CO 2 ), however, retrofitting coal plants to capture CO 2 increases freshwater consumption compared to BAU in 2030. Our analysis suggests that climate policies and a carbon price will reduce both electricity generation and freshwater withdrawals compared to BAU unless a substantial number of coal plants are retrofitted to capture CO 2 . - Highlights: → We analyze the impact of climate change policy on water use for electricity generation. → Water use decreases with an increase in CO 2 allowance price. → Retrofitting of coal plants with CCS could increase water use considerably.

  1. JERM model of care: an in-principle model for dental health policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Raymond; Kruger, Estie; Tennant, Marc

    2014-01-01

    Oral diseases are the most prevalent conditions in the community. Their economic burden is high and their impact on quality of life is profound. There is an increasing body of evidence indicating that oral diseases have wider implications beyond the confines of the mouth. The importance of oral health has not been unnoticed by the government. The Commonwealth (Federal) government under the Howard-led Coalition in 2004 had broken tradition by placing dentistry in its universal health insurance scheme, Medicare. Known as the Chronic Disease Dental Scheme (CDDS), the program aimed to manage patients with chronic conditions as part of the Enhanced Primary Care initiative. This scheme was a landmark policy for several reasons. Besides being the first major dental policy under Medicare, the program proved to be the most expensive and controversial. Unfortunately, cost containment and problems with service provision led to its cessation in 2012 by the Gillard Labor Government. Despite being seen as a failure, the CDDS provided a unique opportunity to assess national policy in practice. By analysing the policy-relevant effects of the CDDS, important lessons can be learnt for policy development. This paper discusses these lessons and has formulated a set of principles recommended for effective oral health policy. The JERM model represents the principles of a justified, economical and research-based model of care.

  2. The impact of tobacco control policies in Albania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaloshnja, Eduard; Ross, Hana; Levy, David T

    2010-12-01

    To assess the impact of a tobacco control law adopted in Albania in 2007 and to estimate the share of illicit cigarettes on the market. Comparative analysis of two waves of a nationally representative household survey, one conducted before the new law went into effect and the other after 2 years. Official sales data were contrasted with the consumption estimate based on the survey. Smoking prevalence, quit attempts, exposure to cigarette advertising, exposure to second-hand smoke, total cigarette consumption, share of illicit packs among packs possessed by smokers. Despite the adoption of strong smoke-free policies and adverting restrictions, smoking prevalence in Albania has risen. The increase in prevalence has been driven by higher smoking rates among females (18.9% in 2007 vs 29.3% in 2009) and young adults (23.2% in 2007 vs 38.5% in 2009 among 18-19 year olds). Self-reported exposure to second-hand smoke and cigarette advertising have been reduced since 2007. The majority of respondents are still exposed to second-hand smoke and more than half are exposed to tobacco advertising. Nevertheless, there are signs that the consumption of illicit cigarettes is declining. The impacts of smoke-free policies and an advertising ban have been limited due to lack of enforcement and failure to adopt a comprehensive set of tobacco control measures. These measures should include sizeable and regular tobacco tax increases in excess of the general level of inflation and income growth. The decline in the share of illicit cigarettes should improve the effectiveness of the cigarette tax policy.

  3. Evaluating Energy Efficiency Policies with Energy-Economy Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mundaca, Luis; Neij, Lena; Worrell, Ernst; McNeil, Michael A.

    2010-08-01

    The growing complexities of energy systems, environmental problems and technology markets are driving and testing most energy-economy models to their limits. To further advance bottom-up models from a multidisciplinary energy efficiency policy evaluation perspective, we review and critically analyse bottom-up energy-economy models and corresponding evaluation studies on energy efficiency policies to induce technological change. We use the household sector as a case study. Our analysis focuses on decision frameworks for technology choice, type of evaluation being carried out, treatment of market and behavioural failures, evaluated policy instruments, and key determinants used to mimic policy instruments. Although the review confirms criticism related to energy-economy models (e.g. unrealistic representation of decision-making by consumers when choosing technologies), they provide valuable guidance for policy evaluation related to energy efficiency. Different areas to further advance models remain open, particularly related to modelling issues, techno-economic and environmental aspects, behavioural determinants, and policy considerations.

  4. The Fiscal and Macroeconomic Impacts of Reforming Energy Subsidy Policy in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Nora Yusma Bte Mohamed Yusoff; Hussain Ali Bekhet

    2017-01-01

    The rationalization of a gradual subsidies reforms plan has been set out by the Malaysian government to achieve the high-income nation target. This paper attempts to analyze the impacts of energy subsidy reform policy on fiscal deficit and macroeconomics variables in Malaysia. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model is employed. Three simulations based on different groups of scenarios have been developed. Importantly, the overall results indicate that removal of fuel subsidy has signif...

  5. A top-down bottom-up modeling approach to climate change policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuladhar, Sugandha D.; Yuan, Mei; Bernstein, Paul; Montgomery, W. David; Smith, Anne

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyzes macroeconomic impacts of U.S. climate change policies for three different emissions pathways using a top-down bottom-up integrated model. The integrated model couples a technology-rich, bottom-up model of the U.S. electricity sector with a fully dynamic, forward-looking general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy. Our model provides a unique and consistent modeling framework for climate change analysis. Because of the model's detail and flexibility, we use it to examine additional scenarios to analyze many of the major uncertainties surrounding the implementation and impact of climate change policies - the role of command-and-control measures, loss in flexibility mechanisms such as banking, limits on low-emitting technology, and availability of offsets. The results consistently demonstrate that those policies that combine market-oriented abatement incentives with full flexibility are the most cost-effective. (author)

  6. The economic impact of state cigarette taxes and smoke-free air policies on convenience stores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jidong; Chaloupka, Frank J

    2013-03-01

    To investigate whether increasing state cigarette taxes and/or enacting stronger smoke-free air (SFA) policies have negative impact on convenience store density in a state, a proxy that is determined by store openings and closings, which reflects store profits. State-level business count estimates for convenience stores for 50 states and District of Columbia from 1997 to 2009 were analysed using two-way fixed effects regression techniques that control for state-specific and year-specific determinants of convenience store density. The impact of tax and SFA policies was examined using a quasi-experimental research design that exploits changes in cigarette taxes and SFA policies within a state over time. Taxes are found to be uncorrelated with the density of combined convenience stores and gas stations in a state. Taxes are positively correlated with the density of convenience stores; however, the magnitude of this correlation is small, with a 10% increase in state cigarette taxes associated with a 0.19% (pconvenience stores per million people in a state. State-level SFA policies do not correlate with convenience store density in a state, regardless whether gas stations were included. These results are robust across different model specifications. In addition, they are robust with regard to the inclusion/exclusion of other state-level tobacco control measures and gasoline prices. Contrary to tobacco industry and related organisations' claims, higher cigarette taxes and stronger SFA policies do not negatively affect convenience stores.

  7. Monetary Policy: Its Impact On The Profitability Of Banks In India

    OpenAIRE

    Punita Rao

    2011-01-01

    This purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of monetary policy on the profitability of banks in the context of financial sector reforms in India. We discuss the financial sector reforms and the implication of the banks, the various instruments of monetary policy in India, and the impact of monetary policy on the profitability of banks.

  8. The effect of climate policy on the impacts of climate change on river flows in the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnell, Nigel W.; Charlton, Matthew B.; Lowe, Jason A.

    2014-03-01

    This paper compares the effects of two indicative climate mitigation policies on river flows in six catchments in the UK with two scenarios representing un-mitigated emissions. It considers the consequences of uncertainty in both the pattern of catchment climate change as represented by different climate models and hydrological model parameterisation on the effects of mitigation policy. Mitigation policy has little effect on estimated flow magnitudes in 2030. By 2050 a mitigation policy which achieves a 2 °C temperature rise target reduces impacts on low flows by 20-25% compared to a business-as-usual emissions scenario which increases temperatures by 4 °C by the end of the 21st century, but this is small compared to the range in impacts between different climate model scenarios. However, the analysis also demonstrates that an early peak in emissions would reduce impacts by 40-60% by 2080 (compared with the 4 °C pathway), easing the adaptation challenge over the long term, and can delay by several decades the impacts that would be experienced from around 2050 in the absence of policy. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided varies between climate model patterns and, to a lesser extent, hydrological model parameterisations, due to variations in the projected shape of the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response.

  9. Examining Policies to Reduce Homelessness Using a General Equilibrium Model of the Housing Market

    OpenAIRE

    Mansur, Erin; Quigley, John M.; Raphael, Steven; Smolensky, Eugene

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, we use a general equilibrium simulation model to assess the potential impacts on homelessness of various housing-market policy interventions. We calibrate the model to the four largest metropolitan areas in California. We explore the welfare con- sequences and the effects on homelessness of three housing-market policy interventions: extending housing vouchers to all low-income households, subsidizing all landlords, and subsidizing those landlords who supply low-income housing. ...

  10. Interaction between Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Dynamic Nonlinear Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertella, Mario A.; Rego, Henio A.; Neris, Celso; Silva, Jonathas N.; Podobnik, Boris; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study is to verify the dynamics between fiscal policy, measured by public debt, and monetary policy, measured by a reaction function of a central bank. Changes in monetary policies due to deviations from their targets always generate fiscal impacts. We examine two policy reaction functions: the first related to inflation targets and the second related to economic growth targets. We find that the condition for stable equilibrium is more restrictive in the first case than in the second. We then apply our simulation model to Brazil and United Kingdom and find that the equilibrium is unstable in the Brazilian case but stable in the UK case. PMID:25799581

  11. Interaction between fiscal and monetary policy in a dynamic nonlinear model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertella, Mario A; Rego, Henio A; Neris, Celso; Silva, Jonathas N; Podobnik, Boris; Stanley, H Eugene

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study is to verify the dynamics between fiscal policy, measured by public debt, and monetary policy, measured by a reaction function of a central bank. Changes in monetary policies due to deviations from their targets always generate fiscal impacts. We examine two policy reaction functions: the first related to inflation targets and the second related to economic growth targets. We find that the condition for stable equilibrium is more restrictive in the first case than in the second. We then apply our simulation model to Brazil and United Kingdom and find that the equilibrium is unstable in the Brazilian case but stable in the UK case.

  12. Income Distribution Impacts of Irrigation Water Distribution Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampath, Rajan K.

    1984-06-01

    In the majority of lesser developed countries (LDC's) there is acute inequality in income distribution in the rural sector, particularly between large and small farms on the one hand and between land owners and the landless on the other. Irrigation water distribution policy of the government is both an economic and political problem. It has both equity and efficiency implications. It has effects on both the level and distribution of income. This paper deals with the conditions under which using water redistribution as an effective governmental policy variable can reduce inequality in the distribution of income. This paper also deals with the relationship between the objectives of equity and efficiency in water distribution under different objective realities, such as dualistic versus nondualistic conditions, two-sector versus three-sector modeling, optimum versus equal water distribution, specifically to derive the conditions under which promotion of equity promotes efficiency and vice versa and the conditions under which it does not.

  13. A review of Agent Based Modeling for agricultural policy evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kremmydas, Dimitris; Athanasiadis, I.N.; Rozakis, Stelios

    2018-01-01

    Farm level scale policy analysis is receiving increased attention due to a changing agricultural policy orientation. Agent based models (ABM) are farm level models that have appeared in the end of 1990's, having several differences from traditional farm level models, like the consideration of

  14. Impacts of a United States' biofuel policy on New Zealand's agricultural sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saunders, Caroline; Kaye-Blake, William; Marshall, Liz; Greenhalgh, Suzie; De Aragao Pereira, Mariana

    2009-01-01

    The rise in oil prices has spurred interest in biofuels. Policies in the United States like the renewable fuel standard (RFS) have led to an expansion of ethanol production, while the New Zealand government has mandated a minimum level of biofuel sales. The research used a partial equilibrium model of international trade to quantify the price and farmgate income effects of the US RFS policy. The goal was to examine the competition between food and biofuel production and to quantify the impact of the policy on the agricultural sector in New Zealand. The RFS policy has a significant impact on corn prices, but a small effect on livestock prices and production. There thus appears to be little conflict between food and fuel uses for corn at the level of the RFS mandate. New Zealand's pasture-based livestock sector benefits from the use of corn for ethanol production: it receives better prices for its products, but does not face the same input cost increases as competitors. The results suggest that New Zealand faces an interesting decision: it could support investment in biofuels research, or benefit from the biofuels boom through the indirect impacts on demand and prices for meat and milk. (author)

  15. The Impact of the FOMC's Monetary Policy Actions on the growth of Credit Risk: the Monetary Policy - Liquidity Paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Kwamie Dunbar

    2008-01-01

    Credit risk is influenced by interest rates and market liquidity. This paper examines the direct and indirect impacts of unexpected monetary policy shifts on the growth of corporate credit risk, with the aim of quantifying the size and direction of the response. The results surprisingly indicate that monetary policy and liquidity impulses move counter to each other in their effects on credit risk ("The monetary policy-liquidity paradox"). The analysis indicates that while contractionary monet...

  16. Trade policy-making in a model of legislative bargaining

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Celik, Levent; Karabay, B.; McLaren, J.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 91, č. 2 (2013), s. 179-190 ISSN 0022-1996 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : trade policy * multilateral legislative bargaining * political economy Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.443, year: 2013

  17. The International Rare Diseases Research Consortium: Policies and Guidelines to maximize impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lochmüller, Hanns; Torrent I Farnell, Josep; Le Cam, Yann; Jonker, Anneliene H; Lau, Lilian Pl; Baynam, Gareth; Kaufmann, Petra; Dawkins, Hugh Js; Lasko, Paul; Austin, Christopher P; Boycott, Kym M

    2017-12-01

    The International Rare Diseases Research Consortium (IRDiRC) has agreed on IRDiRC Policies and Guidelines, following extensive deliberations and discussions in 2012 and 2013, as a first step towards improving coordination of research efforts worldwide. The 25 funding members and 3 patient umbrella organizations (as of early 2013) of IRDiRC, a consortium of research funders that focuses on improving diagnosis and therapy for rare disease patients, agreed in Dublin, Ireland in April 2013 on the Policies and Guidelines that emphasize collaboration in rare disease research, the involvement of patients and their representatives in all relevant aspects of research, as well as the sharing of data and resources. The Policies and Guidelines provide guidance on ontologies, diagnostics, biomarkers, patient registries, biobanks, natural history, therapeutics, models, publication, intellectual property, and communication. Most IRDiRC members-currently nearly 50 strong-have since incorporated its policies in their funding calls and some have chosen to exceed the requirements laid out, for instance in relation to data sharing. The IRDiRC Policies and Guidelines are the first, detailed agreement of major public and private funding organizations worldwide to govern rare disease research, and may serve as a template for other areas of international research collaboration. While it is too early to assess their full impact on research productivity and patient benefit, the IRDiRC Policies and Guidelines have already contributed significantly to improving transparency and collaboration in rare disease research.

  18. Impacts of low-carbon power policy on carbon mitigation in Guangdong Province, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, Beibei; Dai, Hancheng; Wang, Peng; Xie, Yang; Chen, Li; Zhao, Daiqing; Masui, Toshihiko

    2016-01-01

    This paper analyzes the impacts of the low-carbon policy in the power sector of Guangdong Province in China on its energy and carbon emission targets by 2020, as well as their costs and co-benefits, using a regional CGE model with seven scenarios: business as usual (BaU), renewable energy (RE), renewable energy and natural gas (RE–NG), CAP only (CAP), CAP and RE–NG (CAP–RE–NG), carbon emission trading (ETS), and ETS with RE–NG (ETS–RE–NG). Analysis results reveal that provincial energy and carbon intensity targets can be achieved in the assumed carbon mitigation scenarios with carbon cap, ETS, and clean energy development policies. While the carbon constraint exerts negative impacts on the economy, GDP loss could be lowered by the ETS and RE policies. The RE scenario is more economically efficient than the ETS scenario, and coupling the RE and ETS scenarios appears to be the most economically efficient scenario to achieve the desired carbon and energy intensity targets. One of the benefits of the low-carbon policy is its improvement of the energy security of Guangdong in terms of reduced reliance on external coal and oil; in particular, Guangdong coal consumption could peak in 2017–2019. - Highlights: • This study analyzes the low carbon policy in the power sector in Guangdong of China. • The role of power sector in achieving carbon and energy intensity target is shown. • Renewable energy and natural gas are very important for Guangdong Province. • Additional efforts in other sectors are needed to achieve the intensity targets. • The mitigation cost and economic impacts are assessed under various policy settings.

  19. Modeling pellet impact drilling process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalyov, A. V.; Ryabchikov, S. Ya; Isaev, Ye D.; Ulyanova, O. S.

    2016-03-01

    The paper describes pellet impact drilling which could be used to increase the drilling speed and the rate of penetration when drilling hard rocks. Pellet impact drilling implies rock destruction by metal pellets with high kinetic energy in the immediate vicinity of the earth formation encountered. The pellets are circulated in the bottom hole by a high velocity fluid jet, which is the principle component of the ejector pellet impact drill bit. The experiments conducted has allowed modeling the process of pellet impact drilling, which creates the scientific and methodological basis for engineering design of drilling operations under different geo-technical conditions.

  20. Impact of Dividend Taxation Changing on Dividend Policy of Romanian Companies Listed on Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stela JAKOVA

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to analyze factors (with an influence on value of transactions on stock exchange which induce companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange to pay dividends for period 2008 – 2015. First we will estimate five regression models, taking into account some financial and macroeconomics variables. Second we will rebuild these five regression models including a dummy variable which indicates the change of dividend tax rate. Our analyses emphasized the fact that net income, liquidity index, BET return and total assets have a significant effect on dividend payment policy which keeps their significance also after introducing the dummy variable, except the BET rate which decreased its significance. Also only the change of dividend tax rate and net income have a positively significant impact over dividend payment policy of Romanian ‘companies. The findings from this study are useful to be taken in account by the board of managers of companies when they decide the dividend policy for the company. In the same time our study extends the existing literature on this topic, by analyzing the impact of the most recent change in dividend tax rate from 2015, and also by extending the factors which affect the dividend policy of the companies listed on stock exchange.

  1. German Energiewende and the heating market – Impact and limits of policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauermann, Klaas

    2016-01-01

    The German Energiewende envisages achieving a climate-neutral building stock in 2050 by means of two major pillars of regulation. First, residential buildings should consume 80% less primary energy and second; the remaining energy demand should be covered primarily with renewables. This paper simulates the future German heating market under different policy scenarios in order to evaluate the impact and limits of recent and conceivable policies. The investigation is based upon a dual model approach, linking a residential heating model to a discrete choice model. The major finding is that current regulations are not suitable for the achievement of governmental targets. Scenario calculations show that additional carbon emission reductions, triggered by the current regulatory regime, are falling short of expectations. In terms of economic efficiency, all calculated policy alternatives outperform the regulation currently in place. This allows to draw the conclusion that carbon emission reductions can be achieved without a major increase in cost. The model results highlight two policy implications. First, a rising mandatory share of renewables in the heating market is needed for target achievement and can be cost effectively. Second, renewable obligations for heating systems must include the existing building stock to achieve the postulated political targets. - Highlights: •The residential heating market accounts for major share of carbon emissions. •The disregard of the building stock weakens the impact of recent regulation. •Current regulation preserves a heating market dominated by fossil fuels. •A significant renewable share can be achieved through direct regulation. •Alternative policy leads to emission reductions without major increases in costs.

  2. Changes in the Medicare home health care market: the impact of reimbursement policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sunha; Davitt, Joan K

    2009-03-01

    The Balanced Budget Act of 1997 introduced 2 new reimbursement structures, the Interim Payment System (IPS, 1997-2000) and the Prospective Payment System (PPS, begun October 2000) for Medicare home health agencies (HHAs) under the fee-for-service program. This article describes and compares the impact of these changes on the Medicare home health market from a period before the BBA through the IPS and PPS in relation to agency characteristics. A secondary analysis of 1996, 1999, and 2002 Provider of Services data was conducted on all Medicare-certified HHAs. Frequencies and rates of change were calculated by agency characteristics to describe changes in the number of active agencies through those years. Logistic regression models were used to compare factors associated with market exits under different payment systems. The results indicate dramatic but disproportional changes in response to the IPS and the PPS among Medicare home health care agencies. Agency closures were greater and market entries fewer during the IPS, but more branch offices/subunits were closed during the PPS. Proprietary and freestanding agencies experienced greater volatility throughout, with the greatest number of closures seen in Region VI (Dallas). These results demonstrate the direct impact of policy changes on the home health care market and highlight the need to evaluate policy changes to understand both intended and unintended impacts on health markets. Future research should analyze the effect of these policy changes on other healthcare providers and systems and their impact on health outcomes for Medicare beneficiaries.

  3. Waterpipe tobacco smoking impact on public health: implications for policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martinasek MP

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Mary P Martinasek,1 Linda M Gibson-Young,2 Janiece N Davis,3 Robert J McDermott41Public Health Department of Health Sciences and Human Performance, University of Tampa, Kennedy Boulevard, Tampa, FL, 2College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Texas A&M University: Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX, 3Department of Health – Palm Beach County, West Palm beach, FL, 4Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USABackground: Given the increasing evidence of its negative health effects, including contributions to both infectious and chronic diseases, waterpipe tobacco smoking raises public health concerns beyond even those presented by traditional smoking. Methods: Identification of Clean Indoor Air Acts (CIAAs from each of the 50 United States and District of Columbia were retrieved and examined for inclusion of regulatory measures where waterpipe tobacco smoking is concerned. Several instances of exemption to current CIAAs policies were identified. The cumulative policy lens is presented in this study. Results: States vary in their inclusion of explicit wording regarding CIAAs to the point where waterpipe tobacco smoking, unlike traditional smoking products, is excluded from some legislation, thereby limiting authorities’ ability to carry out enforcement. Conclusion: Consistent, comprehensive, and unambiguous legislative language is necessary to prevent establishments where waterpipe tobacco smoking occurs from skirting legislation and other forms of regulatory control. Stricter laws are needed due to the increasing negative health impact on both the smoker and the bystander. Actions at both the federal and state levels may be needed to control health risks, particularly among youth and young adult populations.Keywords: health policy, waterpipe tobacco, hookah smoking, tobacco regulation

  4. Stringent Mitigation Policy Implied By Temperature Impacts on Economic Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, F.; Turner, D.

    2014-12-01

    Integrated assessment models (IAMs) compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change in order to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained GDP growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth-rates in the Dynamic Integrated Climate and Economy (DICE) model via two pathways, total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital depreciation. Even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, this damage specification implies that optimal climate policy involves the elimination of emissions in the near future, the stabilization of global temperature change below 2°C, and a social cost of carbon (SCC) an order of magnitude larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of growth effects, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages from warming and GDP are three critical uncertainties and an important focus for future research.

  5. Assessing the Impact of the ECB's Monetary Policy on the Stock Markets: A Sectoral View

    OpenAIRE

    Konstantin Kholodilin; Alberto Montagnoli; Oreste Napolitano; Boriss Siliverstovs

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyzes the response of the European stock markets to the monetary policy shocks by the European Central Bank using the heteroskedasticity based approach of Rigobon (2003). We find that monetary policy tightening has a heterogeneous impact on the Euro Area sectors on the day the monetary policy is publicly announced. Furthermore, we provide statistical evidence against the use of the popular event study approach when assessing the impact of monetary policy shocks on the stock mark...

  6. Weighing the Costs and Benefits of Renewables Portfolio Standards:A Comparative Analysis of State-Level Policy Impact Projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Cliff; Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2007-01-16

    State renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have emerged as one of the most important policy drivers of renewable energy capacity expansion in the U.S. Collectively, these policies now apply to roughly 40% of U.S. electricity load, and may have substantial impacts on electricity markets, ratepayers, and local economies. As RPS policies have been proposed or adopted in an increasing number of states, a growing number of studies have attempted to quantify the potential impacts of these policies, focusing primarily on projecting cost impacts, but sometimes also estimating macroeconomic and environmental effects. This report synthesizes and analyzes the results and methodologies of 28 distinct state or utility-level RPS cost impact analyses completed since 1998. Together, these studies model proposed or adopted RPS policies in 18 different states. We highlight the key findings of these studies on the costs and benefits of RPS policies, examine the sensitivity of projected costs to model assumptions, assess the attributes of different modeling approaches, and suggest possible areas of improvement for future RPS analysis.

  7. A Model for Assessing the Gender Aspect in Economic Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ona Rakauskienė

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of research is to develop a conceptual model for assessing the impact of the gender aspect on economic policy at macro– and microeconomic levels. The research methodology is based on analysing scientific approaches to the gender aspect in economics and gender–responsive budgeting as well as determining the impact of the gender aspect on GDP, foreign trade, the state budget and the labour market. First, the major findings encompass the main idea of a conceptual model proposing that a socio–economic picture of society can be accepted as completed only when, alongside public and private sectors, includes the care/reproductive sector that is dominated by women and creating added value in the form of educated human resources; second, macroeconomics is not neutral in terms of gender equality. Gender asymmetry is manifested not only at the level of microeconomics (labour market and business but also at the level of macroeconomics (GDP, the state budget and foreign trade, which has a negative impact on economic growth and state budget revenues. In this regard, economic decisions, according to the principles of gender equality and in order to achieve gender equality in economics, must be made, as the gender aspect has to be also implemented at the macroeconomic level.

  8. Hopf bifurcation and chaos in macroeconomic models with policy lag

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao Xiaofeng; Li Chuandong; Zhou Shangbo

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the macroeconomic models with policy lag, and study how lags in policy response affect the macroeconomic stability. The local stability of the nonzero equilibrium of this equation is investigated by analyzing the corresponding transcendental characteristic equation of its linearized equation. Some general stability criteria involving the policy lag and the system parameter are derived. By choosing the policy lag as a bifurcation parameter, the model is found to undergo a sequence of Hopf bifurcation. The direction and stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions are determined by using the normal form theory and the center manifold theorem. Moreover, we show that the government can stabilize the intrinsically unstable economy if the policy lag is sufficiently short, but the system become locally unstable when the policy lag is too long. We also find the chaotic behavior in some range of the policy lag

  9. Impact of State and Federal regulatory policy on natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malloy, K.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents information which demonstrates the decline in the use and subsequent demand of natural gas as the result of regulatory constraints. These regulations have allowed for a 10 percent decline in the use of natural gas in the last 20 years. The author believes that the major reason for this decline is the existence of State and Federal regulatory requirements which prevent the natural gas industry from effectively responding to new market opportunities. The paper goes on to discuss historical regulations such as the Fuel Use Act and the Natural Gas Policy Act which caused severe impacts to development in the gas industry by placing incremental price controls on natural gas. The author then discusses the effect of deregulation and how it has boosted the gas industry. He specifically discusses the US Canada Free-Trade Agreement and the new negotiations which would greatly enhance the gas sales to Mexico. Finally the author goes on to discuss deregulatory stances proposed as part of the National Energy Strategy regarding natural gas. These include the removal of obstacles to building new pipeline capacities; reformation of rates policies; assurances of nondiscriminatory access to natural gas pipeline services and facilities; and removal of impediments to free and open international trade in natural gas

  10. Slovenia: Generous family policy without evidence of any fertility impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milivoja Šircelj

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Slovenia was not a typical socialist country; the transformation that had started at the end of the 1980s did not cause such great turbulences as in other countries in transition. However, unfavorable consequences did accompany the transition, particularly for some segments of the population. Fertility trends in Slovenia, as seen in the total fertility rate, have not surpassed the replacement level since the end of the 1970s. The lowest level of 1.21 was reached during the 1999-2003 period. Since then, the total fertility rate has been increasing slightly. Postponement in childbearing began with cohorts born after 1960. In today's Slovenian society, on average young women achieve higher education than men, and they perceive (potential motherhood as a drawback in the labor market. Almost all parents in Slovenia are employed full-time, even those with small children. Nevertheless, the traditional gender-division of roles persists in the family. Extended education, relatively high unemployment among the young, and a shortage of adequate housing prolong the stay in the parental home. Together with insecure employment, a responsible parenthood norm, and the perceived high costs of children, this results in childbearing postponement and a lower final number of children. Slovenia has a relatively well-developed family policy, particularly on parental leave and pre-school childcare. Notwithstanding, almost no impact of family policy on fertility has ever been observed.

  11. Nuclear waste management and the impact of Carter Administration policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, R.F.

    1979-01-01

    The impact of Carter Administration's policies on the nuclear waste management program are evaluated in this article. The waste management program faces numerous inconsistencies resulting from: a lack of a clearly defined schedule and division of responsibility; the requirement to meet conflicting procedural requirements; and the lack of clear statements from the President and Congress supporting the major programs. Some of the ramifications of these points are discussed with reference to the schedule for the 3 key program elements: National Waste Terminal Storage (NWTS) Facility scheduled for commercial operation in 1985 to handle commercial high-level wastes; the Spent Unreprocessed Fuel (SURF) Facility scheduled for operation in 1985 to handle spent fuel from commercial power plants; the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) scheduled for operation in 1983 or 1984 for the disposal of TRU defense wastes. Possible avenues for improvement are suggested

  12. The Impact of United States Monetary Policy in the Crude Oil futures market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla-Padilla, Fernando M.

    This research examines the empirical impact the United States monetary policy, through the federal fund interest rate, has on the volatility in the crude oil price in the futures market. Prior research has shown how macroeconomic events and variables have impacted different financial markets within short and long--term movements. After testing and decomposing the variables, the two stationary time series were analyzed using a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR). The empirical evidence shows, with statistical significance, a direct relationship when explaining crude oil prices as function of fed fund rates (t-1) and an indirect relationship when explained as a function of fed fund rates (t-2). These results partially address the literature review lacunas within the topic of the existing implication monetary policy has within the crude oil futures market.

  13. The Economic and Health Impacts of Legislative Fiscal Policies to ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Journal articles. Empowering healthy food and beverage choices in the workplace. Download PDF. Journal articles. Modelling the potential impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on stroke mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa. Download PDF. Journal articles. Sugar and health in South Africa ...

  14. Probabilistic Decision Tools for Determining Impacts of Agricultural Development Policy on Household Nutrition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitney, Cory W.; Lanzanova, Denis; Muchiri, Caroline; Shepherd, Keith D.; Rosenstock, Todd S.; Krawinkel, Michael; Tabuti, John R. S.; Luedeling, Eike

    2018-03-01

    Governments around the world have agreed to end hunger and food insecurity and to improve global nutrition, largely through changes to agriculture and food systems. However, they are faced with a lot of uncertainty when making policy decisions, since any agricultural changes will influence social and biophysical systems, which could yield either positive or negative nutrition outcomes. We outline a holistic probability modeling approach with Bayesian Network (BN) models for nutritional impacts resulting from agricultural development policy. The approach includes the elicitation of expert knowledge for impact model development, including sensitivity analysis and value of information calculations. It aims at a generalizable methodology that can be applied in a wide range of contexts. To showcase this approach, we develop an impact model of Vision 2040, Uganda's development strategy, which, among other objectives, seeks to transform the country's agricultural landscape from traditional systems to large-scale commercial agriculture. Model results suggest that Vision 2040 is likely to have negative outcomes for the rural livelihoods it intends to support; it may have no appreciable influence on household hunger but, by influencing preferences for and access to quality nutritional foods, may increase the prevalence of micronutrient deficiency. The results highlight the trade-offs that must be negotiated when making decisions regarding agriculture for nutrition, and the capacity of BNs to make these trade-offs explicit. The work illustrates the value of BNs for supporting evidence-based agricultural development decisions.

  15. Impact of the joint-stock reform of commercial banks on the effectiveness of monetary policy in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fang Xianming

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the past decade, the Chinese government has conducted the joint-stock reform of state-owned commercial banks. The joint-stock reform improves the marketization level of the ownership structure of commercial banks and consequently leads to impacts on the effectiveness of monetary policy. This paper first presents the impacting mechanisms of the joint-stock reform of commercial banks on the effectiveness of monetary policy and then constructs an empirical model to test those impacts. The empirical results show that the increasing degree of joint-stock reform of commercial banks enhances the effectiveness of expansionary monetary policy but weakens the effectiveness of contractionary monetary policy in China.

  16. Knowledge brokering on emissions modelling in Strategic Environmental Assessment of Estonian energy policy with special reference to the LEAP model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuldna, Piret; Peterson, Kaja; Kuhi-Thalfeldt, Reeli

    2015-01-01

    Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) serves as a platform for bringing together researchers, policy developers and other stakeholders to evaluate and communicate significant environmental and socio-economic effects of policies, plans and programmes. Quantitative computer models can facilitate knowledge exchange between various parties that strive to use scientific findings to guide policy-making decisions. The process of facilitating knowledge generation and exchange, i.e. knowledge brokerage, has been increasingly explored, but there is not much evidence in the literature on how knowledge brokerage activities are used in full cycles of SEAs which employ quantitative models. We report on the SEA process of the national energy plan with reflections on where and how the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used for knowledge brokerage on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers. Our main suggestion is that applying a quantitative model not only in ex ante, but also ex post scenario modelling and associated impact assessment can facilitate systematic and inspiring knowledge exchange process on a policy problem and capacity building of participating actors. - Highlights: • We examine the knowledge brokering on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers in a full cycle of SEA. • Knowledge exchange process can evolve at any modelling stage within SEA. • Ex post scenario modelling enables systematic knowledge exchange and learning on a policy problem

  17. Knowledge brokering on emissions modelling in Strategic Environmental Assessment of Estonian energy policy with special reference to the LEAP model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuldna, Piret, E-mail: piret.kuldna@seit.ee [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Peterson, Kaja [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Kuhi-Thalfeldt, Reeli [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Tallinn University of Technology, Ehitajate tee 5, Tallinn 19086 (Estonia)

    2015-09-15

    Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) serves as a platform for bringing together researchers, policy developers and other stakeholders to evaluate and communicate significant environmental and socio-economic effects of policies, plans and programmes. Quantitative computer models can facilitate knowledge exchange between various parties that strive to use scientific findings to guide policy-making decisions. The process of facilitating knowledge generation and exchange, i.e. knowledge brokerage, has been increasingly explored, but there is not much evidence in the literature on how knowledge brokerage activities are used in full cycles of SEAs which employ quantitative models. We report on the SEA process of the national energy plan with reflections on where and how the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used for knowledge brokerage on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers. Our main suggestion is that applying a quantitative model not only in ex ante, but also ex post scenario modelling and associated impact assessment can facilitate systematic and inspiring knowledge exchange process on a policy problem and capacity building of participating actors. - Highlights: • We examine the knowledge brokering on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers in a full cycle of SEA. • Knowledge exchange process can evolve at any modelling stage within SEA. • Ex post scenario modelling enables systematic knowledge exchange and learning on a policy problem.

  18. Maryland's Model Policy to Address Bullying, Harassment, or Intimidation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maryland State Department of Education, 2016

    2016-01-01

    In accordance with the provisions of Section 7-424.1 of the Education Article of the Annotated Code of Maryland, the Maryland State Board of Education has developed and adopted a Model Policy to address bullying, harassment, or intimidation. This report presents the Model Policy, which is organized into the following eight points: (1) Prohibition…

  19. The labor impacts of policy change in health care: how federal policy transformed home health organizations and their labor practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szasz, A

    1990-01-01

    Health care organizations are highly labor-intensive; policies designed to stimulate organizational change are likely to have labor impacts. This paper examines the labor effects of policy change in home health care. Major federal home care policy trends since 1980 have spurred the evolution of the typical home care provider toward greater organizational and market rationality. Greater managerial sophistication has introduced changes in management/labor relations. Survey data from the 1986 DRG Impact Study are used to show how the pressure of cost-containment policies has pushed agencies to cut labor costs by increasing workloads, managerial supervision, and control of the work process. Research on the effects of recent policy change in health care has to date focused primarily on potential client effects. Labor impacts are rarely examined and are poorly understood at the time that policy is made. Findings in this article suggest that these issues deserve greater, more systematic attention, because unanticipated labor impacts may prove to be significant impediments to the realization of intended policy goals.

  20. Energy exporters and climate change. Potential economic impacts of climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wit, R.C.N.

    1997-06-01

    This review paper has been written on a commission by the Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA) in London and is part of a project to investigate the possible impact of greenhouse gas mitigation policies on energy markets and therefore on countries exporting oil, gas and coal. The aim of the project conducted by RIIA is to achieve a better understanding of the role of energy exporters in international climate change negotiations on the road towards the second Conference of Parties in Kyoto at the end of 1997 and the underlying national strategies. All four 'economy'-oriented global model studies reviewed in this paper indicate that CO2-reduction policies would cause wide differences in welfare effects across regions. It appears that energy-exporting countries would suffer the greatest welfare losses. Although several policy instruments can be implemented to achieve CO2-emission reductions, only carbon taxes are considered in the models. The model results show that if world level CO2 emissions are approximately stabilized at their 1990 levels, the cumulative losses in GDP of energy exporters generally range between 3% and 12% by 2010. It should be strongly emphasized that the sign and magnitude of the economic impact of CO2 policy on energy exporters depend critically on how the policy instrument is designed. In the case of a carbon tax the following factors are crucial: (1) the choice between a consumption and a production tax, (2) whether it is based on a global or unilateral agreement, (3) the mode of revenue redistribution among countries and (4) whether emission trading is allowed. 27 refs

  1. An economic evaluation of salt reduction policies to reduce coronary heart disease in England: a policy modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Marissa; Mason, Helen; O'Flaherty, Martin; Guzman-Castillo, Maria; Critchley, Julia; Capewell, Simon

    2014-07-01

    Dietary salt intake has been causally linked to high blood pressure and increased risk of cardiovascular events. Cardiovascular disease causes approximately 35% of total UK deaths, at an estimated annual cost of £30 billion. The World Health Organization and the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence have recommended a reduction in the intake of salt in people's diets. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of four population health policies to reduce dietary salt intake on an English population to prevent coronary heart disease (CHD). The validated IMPACT CHD model was used to quantify and compare four policies: 1) Change4Life health promotion campaign, 2) front-of-pack traffic light labeling to display salt content, 3) Food Standards Agency working with the food industry to reduce salt (voluntary), and 4) mandatory reformulation to reduce salt in processed foods. The effectiveness of these policies in reducing salt intake, and hence blood pressure, was determined by systematic literature review. The model calculated the reduction in mortality associated with each policy, quantified as life-years gained over 10 years. Policy costs were calculated using evidence from published sources. Health care costs for specific CHD patient groups were estimated. Costs were compared against a "do nothing" baseline. All policies resulted in a life-year gain over the baseline. Change4life and labeling each gained approximately 1960 life-years, voluntary reformulation 14,560 life-years, and mandatory reformulation 19,320 life-years. Each policy appeared cost saving, with mandatory reformulation offering the largest cost saving, more than £660 million. All policies to reduce dietary salt intake could gain life-years and reduce health care expenditure on coronary heart disease. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Modelling inspection policies for building maintenance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christer, A H

    1982-08-01

    A method of assessing the potential of an inspection maintenance policy as opposed to an existing breakdown maintenance policy for a building complex is developed. The method is based upon information likely to be available and specific subjective assessments which could be made available. Estimates of the expected number of defects identified at an inspection and the consequential cost saving are presented as functions of the inspection frequency.

  3. The role of public policies in reducing smoking: the Minnesota SimSmoke tobacco policy model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, David T; Boyle, Raymond G; Abrams, David B

    2012-11-01

    Following the landmark lawsuit and settlement with the tobacco industry, Minnesota pursued the implementation of stricter tobacco control policies, including tax increases, mass media campaigns, smokefree air laws, and cessation treatment policies. Modeling is used to examine policy effects on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. To estimate the effect of tobacco control policies in Minnesota on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths using the SimSmoke simulation model. Minnesota data starting in 1993 are applied to SimSmoke, a simulation model used to examine the effect of tobacco control policies over time on smoking initiation and cessation. Upon validating the model against smoking prevalence, SimSmoke is used to distinguish the effect of policies implemented since 1993 on smoking prevalence. Using standard attribution methods, SimSmoke also estimates deaths averted as a result of the policies. SimSmoke predicts smoking prevalence accurately between 1993 and 2011. Since 1993, a relative reduction in smoking rates of 29% by 2011 and of 41% by 2041 can be attributed to tobacco control policies, mainly tax increases, smokefree air laws, media campaigns, and cessation treatment programs. Moreover, 48,000 smoking-attributable deaths will be averted by 2041. Minnesota SimSmoke demonstrates that tobacco control policies, especially taxes, have substantially reduced smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Taxes, smokefree air laws, mass media, cessation treatment policies, and youth-access enforcement contributed to the decline in prevalence and deaths averted, with the strongest component being taxes. With stronger policies, for example, increasing cigarette taxes to $4.00 per pack, Minnesota's smoking rate could be reduced by another 13%, and 7200 deaths could be averted by 2041. Copyright © 2012 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Policy Impact on the Chinese Stock Market: From the 1994 Bailout Policies to the 2015 Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang-Chao Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available From the 1994 bailout policies to the 2015 Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the policy impact on the Chinese stock market has changed over time. By May 2015, global investors can directly invest in a more legalized and normalized Chinese stock market, whereas they are still concerned about the policy-oriented market and its attendant risks. In this study, we employ the family of GARCH models to investigate the structural changes in risks with the implementation of a series of policies. Our results show that although many policies improve or stabilize the stock market, certain policies lead to substantial volatility. Among them, macro-control policies and transaction cost adjustments are a double-edged sword, which should be used with caution. Furthermore, with opening-up policies being launched recently, the Chinese stock market has entered a new stage in which it affects international capital markets. However, the increased risks, which may result in a sharp turnaround, cause worry.

  5. A methodology for evaluating environmental impacts of railway freight transportation policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez, Ignacio; Rodriguez, Javier; Buron, Jose Manuel; Garcia, Alberto

    2009-01-01

    Railway freight transportation presents a degree of complexity which frequently makes impossible to model it with sufficient precision. Currently, energetic and environmental impacts of freight transportation are usually modelled following average data, which do not reflect the characteristics of specific lines. These models allow qualitative approximations which may be used as criteria for designing high-level transportation policies: road-train modal shift, regional energetic planning or environmental policies. This paper proposes a methodology for estimating railway consumption associated to a specific railway line which yields a new degree of precision. It is based on estimating different contributions to railway consumption by a collection of factors, mobility, operation, or infrastructure-related. This procedure also allows applying the methodology for designing transportation policies in detail: evaluating impact of modal shift, consumption and pollutant emissions on a specific line, as well as the effect of building tunnels, reducing slopes, improving traffic control, etc. A comparison of the estimations given by the conventional approach and the proposed methodology is offered, as well as further comments on the results.

  6. Moving communities toward policy change: APPEAL's 4-prong policy change model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Elisa K; Lew, Rod

    2013-09-01

    Policy change is recognized for underlying much of the success of tobacco control. However, there is little evidence and attention on how Asian American and Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (AA and NHPI) communities may engage in policy change. Challenges for AA and NHPI communities include the racial/ethnic and geographic diversity, and tobacco data accurately representing the communities. Over the past decade, the Asian Pacific Partners for Empowerment, Advocacy and Leadership (APPEAL) has worked to develop and implement policy change for AA and NHPI communities. This article describes APPEAL's 4-prong policy change model, in the context of its overall strategic framework for policy change with communities that accounts for varying levels of readiness and leadership capacity, and targets four different levels of policy change (community, mainstream institution, legislative, and corporate). The health promotion implication of this framework for tobacco control policy engagement is for improving understanding of effective pathways to policy change, promoting innovative methods for policy analysis, and translating them into effective implementation and sustainability of policy initiatives. The APPEAL strategic framework can transcend into other communities and health topics that ultimately may contribute to the elimination of health disparities.

  7. Moving Communities Toward Policy Change: APPEAL’s 4-Prong Policy Change Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Elisa K.; Lew, Rod

    2014-01-01

    Policy change is recognized for underlying much of the success of tobacco control. However, there is little evidence and attention on how Asian American and Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (AA and NHPI) communities may engage in policy change. Challenges for AA and NHPI communities include the racial/ethnic and geographic diversity, and tobacco data accurately representing the communities. Over the past decade, the Asian Pacific Partners for Empowerment, Advocacy and Leadership (APPEAL) has worked to develop and implement policy change for AA and NHPI communities. This article describes APPEAL’s 4-prong policy change model, in the context of its overall strategic framework for policy change with communities that accounts for varying levels of readiness and leadership capacity, and targets four different levels of policy change (community, mainstream institution, legislative, and corporate). The health promotion implication of this framework for tobacco control policy engagement is for improving understanding of effective pathways to policy change, promoting innovative methods for policy analysis, and translating them into effective implementation and sustainability of policy initiatives. The APPEAL strategic framework can transcend into other communities and health topics that ultimately may contribute to the elimination of health disparities. PMID:23707962

  8. An electricity and environmental policy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanson, D.A.

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes work being done to simulate the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA), Title IV, Acidic Deposition Control, which introduced tradable, bankable SO 2 emission allowances. The Title IV simulations are compared with three other scenarios on a regional basis in order to calculate the following: the absolute cost savings of the tradable/ bankable approach, the relative cost savings of the tradable/ bankable approach derived from a baseline of no controls, the environmental improvement, measured in terms of SO 2 emission reduction, that will be achieved under Title IV compared with a more rigid command-and-control regulation with the same cost. Hence, the simulations illustrate the basic point that more efficient market-based regulation can either reduce costs or can provide enhanced environmental quality, or both. It is important for policy formation to get a handle on relative magnitudes. The National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) 1990 Assessment suggested a 25% cost saving from tradable emission allowances relative to command-and-control. Both the relative savings potential and the absolute savings potential matter because a small relative savings in a large regulatory program may still be worth pursuing. Regional cost reductions and environmental improvements are of particular interest. However, this study goes further to characterize likely SO 2 emission trading patterns within and among utility operating systems. The study also characterizes the coal market and the induced sulfur premiums over time and the market price path for SO 2 emission allowances. It is shown that the sulfur premium is equivalent to the SO 2 allowance price. This paper focuses on the methodology and on the new electric utility planning and compliance model which was designed for the study

  9. Revisiting the impacts of oil price increases on monetary policy implementation in the largest oil importers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurtac Yildirim

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to test the impacts of oil price increases on monetary policy implementation in the largest oil importers. For that purpose, we estimate structural vector error correction (SVEC models to show the impacts of oil price increases on industrial production, consumer prices and immediate interest rates which are the elements of Taylor rule for the four largest oil importers (the USA, the EU, China and Japan. Our results indicate that oil price increases transmit to output and inflation and lead to fluctuations in industrial production, consumer prices and immediate interest rates which in turn influence the monetary policy stance in the following periods. The basic conclusion of research is that the channels through which oil prices affect output, inflation and interest rates should be identified by the monetary policy authorities of the USA, the EU, China and Japan. We also emphasize the importance of the determination of the optimal monetary policy framework to eliminate the negative consequences of oil price increases.

  10. IMPACTS OF GROUP-BASED SIGNAL CONTROL POLICY ON DRIVER BEHAVIOR AND INTERSECTION SAFETY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keshuang TANG

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Unlike the typical stage-based policy commonly applied in Japan, the group-based control (often called movement-based in the traffic control industry in Japan refers to such a control pattern that the controller is capable of separately allocating time to each signal group instead of stage based on traffic demand. In order to investigate its applicability at signalized intersections in Japan, an intersection located in Yokkaichi City of Mie Prefecture was selected as an experimental application site by the Japan Universal Traffic Management Society (UTMS. Based on the data collected at the intersection before and after implementing the group-based control policy respectively, this study evaluated the impacts of such a policy on driver behavior and intersection safety. To specify those impacts, a few models utilizing cycle-based data were first developed to interpret the occurrence probability and rate of red-light-running (RLR. Furthermore, analyses were performed on the yellow-entry time (Ye of the last cleared vehicle and post encroachment time (PET during the phase switching. Conclusions supported that the group-based control policy, along with certain other factors, directly or indirectly influenced the RLR behavior of through and right-turn traffics. Meanwhile, it has potential safety benefits as well, indicated by the declined Ye and increased PET values.

  11. Community Health Workers Promote Civic Engagement and Organizational Capacity to Impact Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabo, Samantha; Flores, Melissa; Wennerstrom, Ashley; Bell, Melanie L; Verdugo, Lorena; Carvajal, Scott; Ingram, Maia

    2017-12-01

    Community health workers (CHW) have historically served to link structurally vulnerable populations to broad support systems. Emerging evidence suggests that CHWs engage in various forms of advocacy to promote policy and systems change. We assessed the impact of CHW community advocacy on community change, defined as civic engagement, organizational capacity and policy and systems change. Data are drawn from the 2014 National Community Health Worker Advocacy Survey (N = 1776) aimed to identify the state of the CHW profession, and their impact on health disparities through community advocacy and policy engagement. Our primary analysis used multiple linear regression to assess the association between CHW advocacy and community change. As predicted, there was a significant, positive association between CHW advocacy and change in community conditions. Additionally, both adjusted and sensitivity models had similar standardized beta estimates for advocacy, and adjusted R 2 statistics. CHW advocacy predicts positive change in community conditions and further advances the CHW Community Advocacy Framework designed to support and monitor CHW community advocacy to reduce health disparities through advocacy and policy change.

  12. Assessing the impact of information and framing on support for climate policy action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatfield-Dodds, Steve

    2007-01-01

    Full text: A significant share of the public appears mislead by the way the economic impacts of emissions reductions are traditionally communicated. This misunderstanding is associated with reduced support for policy action, and risks long term climate impacts that would be avoided if results were communicated properly. Correct this basis appears likely to have a larger effect on attitudes than new research and information on the impacts of climate change. Government action to achieve deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions - like other major policy changes -depends on public support, which in turn depends on perceptions of policy impacts. This paper reports research exploring the effect of three factors on support for policy action: the way that policy impacts are described; the magnitude of these impacts, and additional information on climate change impacts, provided internally through the surveys and externally through the release of An Inconvenient Truth and media coverage of the Stern Report (2006). The research used split sample phone and internet surveys (n = 4264) conducted in Australia and New Zealand in four waves from April to December 2006. The study gives rise to four major findings: Support for policy action is sensitive to the magnitude of expected economic impacts, with predicted support varying from 27% to 84% across the different levels of policy impact presented; Current approaches to communicating policy impacts are associated with public support for policy action being 8-10% lower than it would be if policy impacts were well communicated. This bias may be corrected by describing policy impacts in terms of changes relative to current levels - stating that incomes continue to rise - as well as describing impacts relative to the base case; The reduction in support associated with these biases is much larger than the increase in support associated with providing credible additional information on the impacts of climate change; Significantly more than

  13. The near-term impacts of carbon mitigation policies on manufacturing industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenstern, Richard D.; Ho Mun; Shih, J.-S.; Zhang Xuehua

    2004-01-01

    Who pays for new policies to reduce carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions in the United States? This paper considers a slice of the question by examining the near-term impact on domestic manufacturing industries of both upstream (economy-wide) and downstream (electric power industry only) carbon mitigation policies. Detailed Census data on the electricity use of four-digit manufacturing industries are combined with input-output information on inter-industry purchases to paint a detailed picture of carbon use, including effects on final demand. Regional information on electricity supply and use by region is also incorporated. A relatively simple model is developed which yields estimates of the relative burdens within the manufacturing sector of alternative carbon policies. Overall, the principal conclusion is that within the manufacturing sector (which by definition excludes coal production and electricity generation), only a small number of industries would bear a disproportionate short-term burden of a carbon tax or similar policy. Not surprisingly, an electricity-only policy affects very different manufacturing industries than an economy-wide carbon tax

  14. A Dynamic Linear Modeling Approach to Public Policy Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loftis, Matthew; Mortensen, Peter Bjerre

    2017-01-01

    Theories of public policy change, despite their differences, converge on one point of strong agreement. The relationship between policy and its causes can and does change over time. This consensus yields numerous empirical implications, but our standard analytical tools are inadequate for testing...... them. As a result, the dynamic and transformative relationships predicted by policy theories have been left largely unexplored in time-series analysis of public policy. This paper introduces dynamic linear modeling (DLM) as a useful statistical tool for exploring time-varying relationships in public...... policy. The paper offers a detailed exposition of the DLM approach and illustrates its usefulness with a time series analysis of U.S. defense policy from 1957-2010. The results point the way for a new attention to dynamics in the policy process and the paper concludes with a discussion of how...

  15. Economic impact of integrated policies to respond to threats of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanson, D.A.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes the Argonne Multisector Industry Growth Assessment Model (AMIGA), which is a tool for policy impact analysis in the context of the economy as a whole and its individual sectors. AMIGA is currently being used by the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to help understand and evaluate these DOE programs, including more efficient motor vehicle programs. The steps being taken under the US Climate Change Action Plan are being assessed using AMIGA. However, because AMIGA represents prices of goods and services and the wages of workers, AMIGA has the capability to represent incentive approaches to greenhouse gas emissions reductions such as a carbon tax. The ''best'' policy option in a ''second-best'' world may be a mix, or bundle of incentives, voluntary programs, and command-and-control regulations. Detailed reports on model documentation and simulation studies will be available from the author

  16. Discharge Fee Policy Analysis: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model of Water Resources and Water Environments

    OpenAIRE

    Guohua Fang; Ting Wang; Xinyi Si; Xin Wen; Yu Liu

    2016-01-01

    To alleviate increasingly serious water pollution and shortages in developing countries, various kinds of policies have been implemented by local governments. It is vital to quantify and evaluate the performance and potential economic impacts of these policies. This study develops a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the regional economic and environmental effects of discharge fees. Firstly, water resources and water environment factors are separated from the input and out...

  17. Mexico SimSmoke: how changes in tobacco control policies would impact smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleischer, Nancy L; Thrasher, James F; Reynales-Shigematsu, Luz Myriam; Cummings, K Michael; Meza, Rafael; Zhang, Yian; Levy, David T

    2017-07-01

    We examined the effect of tobacco control policies in Mexico on smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths using the Mexico SimSmoke model. The model is based on the previously developed SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy, and uses population size, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data for Mexico. It assesses, individually, and in combination, the effect of six tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths. Policies included: cigarette excise taxes, smoke-free laws, anti-smoking public education campaigns, marketing restrictions, access to tobacco cessation treatments and enforcement against tobacco sales youth. The model estimates that, if Mexico were to adopt strong tobacco control policies compared to current policy levels, smoking prevalence could be reduced by 30% in the next decade and by 50% by 2053; an additional 470,000 smoking-related premature deaths could be averted over the next 40 years. The greatest impact on smoking and smoking-related deaths would be achieved by raising excise taxes on cigarettes from 55% to at least 70% of the retail price, followed by strong youth access enforcement and access to cessation treatments. Implementing tobacco control policies in Mexico could reduce smoking prevalence by 50%, and prevent 470,000 smoking-related deaths by 2053.

  18. Measuring the Impact of Financial Intermediation: Linking Contract Theory to Econometric Policy Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townsend, Robert M; Urzua, Sergio S

    2009-09-01

    We study the impact that financial intermediation can have on productivity through the alleviation of credit constraints in occupation choice and/or an improved allocation of risk, using both static and dynamic structural models as well as reduced form OLS and IV regressions. Our goal in this paper is to bring these two strands of the literature together. Even though, under certain assumptions, IV regressions can recover accurately the true model-generated local average treatment effect, these are quantitatively different, in order of magnitude and even sign, from other policy impact parameters (e.g., ATE and TT). We also show that laying out clearly alternative models can guide the search for instruments. On the other hand adding more margins of decision, i.e., occupation choice and intermediation jointly, or adding more periods with promised utilities as key state variables, as in optimal multi-period contracts, can cause the misinterpretation of IV as the causal effect of interest.

  19. The impact of environmental policy on economic indicators. Moving from global to sectoral and regional perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voigt, Sebastian

    2013-07-01

    In recent times, environmental, energy and climate policies have gained tremendously in importance. Not least, this is due to the latest research findings related to climate change and the resulting growing environmental awareness among people. However, policy approaches to combat environmental pollution and climate change differ both in their intention and in their economic impacts. For instance, command-and-control instruments such as performance or technology standards have different implications than market-based mechanisms such as permit trading of greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, sectoral and regional characteristics play an important role when implementing and assessing policy measures. This applies both to the attainability of the targets and to the available instruments. The present doctoral thesis addresses this point and analyzes in several essays different policy instruments and their economic effects from global, regional and sectoral perspectives. In this respect, it deals with various, often very heterogeneous question: How are specific policy types implemented in different countries? What is the CO2 abatement potential in specific regions and sectors? What policy measures can be plausibly used to exploit this potential? How can technological developments and technology-directed policy interventions contribute to improve energy efficiency? Does the promotion of certain energy sources necessarily create positive production and employment effects? To answer these and further questions, different economic methods are applied that accommodate the particular problem, where special emphasis is put on computable general equilibrium modeling. The aim of this work is to contribute to the academic and political debate on measures to combat environmental and climate problems.

  20. The impact of environmental policy on economic indicators. Moving from global to sectoral and regional perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voigt, Sebastian

    2013-01-01

    In recent times, environmental, energy and climate policies have gained tremendously in importance. Not least, this is due to the latest research findings related to climate change and the resulting growing environmental awareness among people. However, policy approaches to combat environmental pollution and climate change differ both in their intention and in their economic impacts. For instance, command-and-control instruments such as performance or technology standards have different implications than market-based mechanisms such as permit trading of greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, sectoral and regional characteristics play an important role when implementing and assessing policy measures. This applies both to the attainability of the targets and to the available instruments. The present doctoral thesis addresses this point and analyzes in several essays different policy instruments and their economic effects from global, regional and sectoral perspectives. In this respect, it deals with various, often very heterogeneous question: How are specific policy types implemented in different countries? What is the CO2 abatement potential in specific regions and sectors? What policy measures can be plausibly used to exploit this potential? How can technological developments and technology-directed policy interventions contribute to improve energy efficiency? Does the promotion of certain energy sources necessarily create positive production and employment effects? To answer these and further questions, different economic methods are applied that accommodate the particular problem, where special emphasis is put on computable general equilibrium modeling. The aim of this work is to contribute to the academic and political debate on measures to combat environmental and climate problems.

  1. Energy Market Impacts of Nuclear Power Phase-Out Policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glomsroed, Solveig; Taoyuan, Wei; Mideksa, Torben; Samset, Bjoern H.

    2013-01-01

    After the Fukushima disaster in March 2011 safety concerns have escalated and policies towards nuclear power are being reconsidered in several countries. This article presents a study of the effect of nuclear power phase-out on regional electricity prices. We consider 4 scenarios with various levels of ambition to scale down the nuclear industry using a multiple region, multiple sector global general equilibrium model. Non-nuclear power production follows the New Policies scenario of the World Energy Outlook (IEA, 2010). Phase-out in Germany and Switzerland increases electricity prices of OECD-Europe moderately by 2-3 per cent early on to 4-5 per cent by 2035 if transmission capacity within the region is sufficient. If all regions shut down old plants built before 2011, North America, OECD-Europe and Japan face increasing electricity prices in the range of 23-28 per cent in 2035. These price increases illustrate the incentives for further investments in renewable electricity or improved technologies in nuclear power production. (Author)

  2. Energy market impacts of nuclear power phase-out policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glomsroed, Solveig; Taoyuan, Wei; Mideksa, Torben; Samset, Bjoern H.

    2013-03-01

    After the Fukushima disaster in March 2011 safety concerns have escalated and policies towards nuclear power are being reconsidered in several countries. This article presents a study of the effect of nuclear power phase-out on regional electricity prices. We consider 4 scenarios with various levels of ambition to scale down the nuclear industry using a multiple region, multiple sector global general equilibrium model. Non-nuclear power production follows the New Policies scenario of the World Energy Outlook (IEA, 2010). Phase-out in Germany and Switzerland increases electricity prices of OECD-Europe moderately by 2-3 per cent early on to 4-5 per cent by 2035 if transmission capacity within the region is sufficient. If all regions shut down old plants built before 2011, North America, OECD-Europe and Japan face increasing electricity prices in the range of 23-28 per cent in 2035. These price increases illustrate the incentives for further investments in renewable electricity or improved technologies in nuclear power production. (Author)

  3. Neoliberal Policies and their Impact on Public Health Education: Observations on the Venezuelan Experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar Feo

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the impact of neoliberal policies on the training of specialists in Public Health and describes the Venezuelan experience. In Venezuela, like other countries of the American continent, Public Health Schools had been transformed from institutions under the direction of the Ministry of Health to a model in which training took place under market conditions. Education in Public Health became a private good for individual consumption, and schools, lacking official funding, survived by offering courses in a market that did not necessarily respond to a country’s health needs. The conclusion discusses the currrent Venezuelan experience, in which the State has resumed control of the training of specialists in public health, making it more democratic, and adoptng an educational model centered around practice and whose purpose is the mass training of leadership teams to bolster the National Public Health System. In order to comment on the impact of neoliberal policies on training in public health we must first briefly review the following themes: 1. Basic concepts such as neoliberalism, globalization, and health systems. 2. The impact of neoliberal reforms on health. 3. The Venezuelan situation: basic principles for the training of professionals and technicians in health within the framework of a model of independent and sovereign national development. 4. Final reflections: challenges for the coming years.

  4. Understanding the impact of school tobacco policies on adolescent smoking behaviour: A realist review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schreuders, Michael; Nuyts, Paulien A. W.; van den Putte, Bas; Kunst, Anton E.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Secondary schools increasingly implement school tobacco policies (STPs) to decrease adolescents' smoking. Recent studies suggested that STPs' impact depends on their implementation. We examined adolescents' cognitive and behavioural responses to STPs that impact adolescents' smoking and

  5. Understanding the impact of school tobacco policies on adolescent smoking behaviour: A realist review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schreuders, M.; Nuyts, P.A.W.; van den Putte, B.; Kunst, A.E.

    Background Secondary schools increasingly implement school tobacco policies (STPs) to decrease adolescents' smoking. Recent studies suggested that STPs' impact depends on their implementation. We examined adolescents' cognitive and behavioural responses to STPs that impact adolescents' smoking and

  6. The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mercure, J.-F.; Pollitt, H.; Chewpreecha, U.; Salas, P.; Foley, A.M.; Holden, P.B.; Edwards, N.R.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of climate policy instruments for the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector in a non-equilibrium economic and technology diffusion perspective. Energy markets are driven by innovation, path-dependent technology choices and diffusion. However, conventional optimisation models lack detail on these aspects and have limited ability to address the effectiveness of policy interventions because they do not represent decision-making. As a result, known effects of technology lock-ins are liable to be underestimated. In contrast, our approach places investor decision-making at the core of the analysis and investigates how it drives the diffusion of low-carbon technology in a highly disaggregated, hybrid, global macroeconometric model, FTT:Power-E3MG. Ten scenarios to 2050 of the electricity sector in 21 regions exploring combinations of electricity policy instruments are analysed, including their climate impacts. We show that in a diffusion and path-dependent perspective, the impact of combinations of policies does not correspond to the sum of impacts of individual instruments: synergies exist between policy tools. We argue that the carbon price required to break the current fossil technology lock-in can be much lower when combined with other policies, and that a 90% decarbonisation of the electricity sector by 2050 is affordable without early scrapping. - Highlights: • Policy scenarios for decarbonising of the global electricity sector by 90%. • Strong synergies exist between different energy policy instruments. • Carbon pricing not a sufficient policy instrument for large emissions reductions. • Improved agent behaviour assumptions for energy modelling beyond cost-optimisation

  7. Impact of Attendance Policies on Course Attendance among College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chenneville, Tiffany; Jordan, Cary

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study was twofold: (a) to investigate whether having a graded attendance policy would have an effect on course attendance among college students, and (b) to examine beliefs about education and attendance policies among college students. Results support the utility of graded attendance policies for increasing class attendance…

  8. The impact of donor policies in Europe: a steady increase, but not everywhere.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coppen, R.; Friele, R.D.; Gevers, J.K.M.; Blok, G.A.; Zee, J. van der

    2008-01-01

    Background: Transplantable organs are scarce everywhere. Therefore, countries have developed policies to support the efficient use of potential donors. Nevertheless, the shortage of organs remains. Were these policies in vain? The aim of this study is to assess the impact of donor policies on donor

  9. Evaluating the Impacts of School Nutrition and Physical Activity Policies on Child Health. PRGS Dissertation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Meenakshi Maria

    2010-01-01

    This dissertation evaluates the impact of elementary school policies on child health behaviors and obesity in the United States. Two chapters address nutrition policies, two chapters address physical activity policies, and a final chapter estimates the health care cost savings associated with a decline in childhood obesity prevalence. The use of…

  10. The Impact of Irish Policy and Legislation on How Adults with Learning Disabilities Make Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Eileen; Griffiths, Colin

    2016-01-01

    This paper reflects the impact of policy and legislation in the context of how adults with learning disabilities make choices. Following an overview of policies which have improved choice for people with learning disability in the United Kingdom, this paper reviews "choice" in current Irish policy and legislation. This paper, while…

  11. Service Coordination Policies and Models: National Status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harbin, Gloria L.; Bruder, M.; Mazzarella, C.; Gabbard, G.; Reynolds, C.

    This report discusses the findings of a study that investigated state coordination of early intervention services for infants, toddlers, and young children with disabilities. State Part C coordinators participated in a survey that sought their perceptions of values under girding service coordination, approach to service coordination, policies,…

  12. Modeling policy mix to improve the competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silitonga, R. Y.H.; Siswanto, J.; Simatupang, T.; Bahagia, S.N.

    2016-07-01

    The purpose of this research is to develop a model that will explain the impact of government policies to the competitiveness of palm oil industry. The model involves two commodities in this industry, namely crude palm oil (CPO) and refined palm oil (RPO), each has different added value. The model built will define the behavior of government in controlling palm oil industry, and their interactions with macro-environment, in order to improve the competitiveness of the industry. Therefore the first step was to map the main activities in this industry using value chain analysis. After that a conceptual model was built, where the output of the model is competitiveness of the industry based on market share. The third step was model formulation. The model is then utilized to simulate the policy mix given by government in improving the competitiveness of Palm Oil Industry. The model was developed using only some policies which give direct impact to the competitiveness of the industry. For macro environment input, only price is considered in this model. The model can simulate the output of the industry for various government policies mix given to the industry. This research develops a model that can represent the structure and relationship between industry, government and macro environment, using value chain analysis and hierarchical multilevel system approach. (Author)

  13. Modeling policy mix to improve the competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roland Y H Silitonga

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this research is to develop a model that will explain the impact of government policies to the competitiveness of palm oil industry. The model involves two commodities in this industry, namely crude palm oil (CPO and refined palm oil (RPO, each has different added value. Design/methodology/approach: The model built will define the behavior of government in controlling palm oil industry, and their interactions with macro-environment, in order to improve the competitiveness of the industry. Therefore the first step was to map the main activities in this industry using value chain analysis. After that a conceptual model was built, where the output of the model is competitiveness of the industry based on market share. The third step was model formulation. The model is then utilized to simulate the policy mix given by government in improving the competitiveness of Palm Oil Industry. Research limitations/implications: The model was developed using only some policies which give direct impact to the competitiveness of the industry. For macro environment input, only price is considered in this model. Practical implications: The model can simulate the output of the industry for various government policies mix given to the industry. Originality/value: This research develops a model that can represent the structure and relationship between industry, government and macro environment, using value chain analysis and hierarchical multilevel system approach.

  14. Impacts of market-based climate change policy on the U.S. iron and steel industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruth, M.; Amato, A.; Davidsdottir, B.

    2000-01-01

    This article presents an assessment of the impacts that policy-induced increases in cost of energy or carbon may have on energy use and emission profiles of the US iron and steel industry. Time series data and engineering information are combined within a dynamic computer model to endogenously specify changes in technologies, fuel mix, and production processes. Results indicate that energy taxes shift production to electric arc furnaces and reduce total energy use more than policies that raise costs of carbon. However, both energy taxes and costs of carbon will result in a similar decrease in carbon emissions when compared to the absence of those policies

  15. Impacts of licensed premises trading hour policies on alcohol-related harms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Jo-An; Prodan, Ante; Livingston, Michael; Knowles, Dylan; O'Donnell, Eloise; Room, Robin; Indig, Devon; Page, Andrew; McDonnell, Geoff; Wiggers, John

    2018-07-01

    Evaluations of alcohol policy changes demonstrate that restriction of trading hours of both 'on'- and 'off'-licence venues can be an effective means of reducing rates of alcohol-related harm. Despite this, the effects of different trading hour policy options over time, accounting for different contexts and demographic characteristics, and the common co-occurrence of other harm reduction strategies in trading hour policy initiatives, are difficult to estimate. The aim of this study was to use dynamic simulation modelling to compare estimated impacts over time of a range of trading hour policy options on various indicators of acute alcohol-related harm. An agent-based model of alcohol consumption in New South Wales, Australia was developed using existing research evidence, analysis of available data and a structured approach to incorporating expert opinion. Five policy scenarios were simulated, including restrictions to trading hours of on-licence venues and extensions to trading hours of bottle shops. The impact of the scenarios on four measures of alcohol-related harm were considered: total acute harms, alcohol-related violence, emergency department (ED) presentations and hospitalizations. Simulation of a 3 a.m. (rather than 5 a.m.) closing time resulted in an estimated 12.3 ± 2.4% reduction in total acute alcohol-related harms, a 7.9 ± 0.8% reduction in violence, an 11.9 ± 2.1% reduction in ED presentations and a 9.5 ± 1.8% reduction in hospitalizations. Further reductions were achieved simulating a 1 a.m. closing time, including a 17.5 ± 1.1% reduction in alcohol-related violence. Simulated extensions to bottle shop trading hours resulted in increases in rates of all four measures of harm, although most of the effects came from increasing operating hours from 10 p.m. to 11 p.m. An agent-based simulation model suggests that restricting trading hours of licensed venues reduces rates of alcohol-related harm and extending trading hours of bottle

  16. Freshwater Ecosystem Services in Mining Regions: Modelling Options for Policy Development Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Mercado-Garcia

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystem services (ES approach offers an integrated perspective of social-ecological systems, suitable for holistic assessments of mining impacts. Yet for ES models to be policy-relevant, methodological consensus in mining contexts is needed. We review articles assessing ES in mining areas focusing on freshwater components and policy support potential. Twenty-six articles were analysed concerning (i methodological complexity (data types, number of parameters, processes and ecosystem–human integration level and (ii potential applicability for policy development (communication of uncertainties, scenario simulation, stakeholder participation and management recommendations. Articles illustrate mining impacts on ES through valuation exercises mostly. However, the lack of ground- and surface-water measurements, as well as insufficient representation of the connectivity among soil, water and humans, leave room for improvements. Inclusion of mining-specific environmental stressors models, increasing resolution of topographies, determination of baseline ES patterns and inclusion of multi-stakeholder perspectives are advantageous for policy support. We argue that achieving more holistic assessments exhorts practitioners to aim for high social-ecological connectivity using mechanistic models where possible and using inductive methods only where necessary. Due to data constraints, cause–effect networks might be the most feasible and best solution. Thus, a policy-oriented framework is proposed, in which data science is directed to environmental modelling for analysis of mining impacts on water ES.

  17. Energy impact of indoor environmental policy for air-conditioned offices of Hong Kong

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, L.T.; Mui, K.W.; Shi, K.L.

    2008-01-01

    Air-conditioned office buildings are one of the biggest energy consumers of electricity in developed cities in the subtropical climate regions. A good energy policy for the indoor environment should respond to both the needs of energy conservation and the needs for a desirable indoor healthy environment with a reduction in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) generation. This study evaluates energy implications and the corresponding CO 2 generation of some indoor environmental policies for air-conditioned office buildings in the subtropical climate. In particular, the thermal energy consumption in an air-conditioned office building was evaluated by the heat gains through the building fabric, the transport of outdoor fresh air for ventilation, and the heat generated by the occupant and equipment in the space. With the Monte-Carlo sampling technique and the parameters from the existing office building stocks of Hong Kong, the energy consumption profiles of air-conditioned office buildings in Hong Kong were evaluated. Energy consumption profiles were simulated for certain indoor environmental quality (IEQ) policies on indoor air temperature and CO 2 concentration settings in the offices, with other building parameters remaining unchanged. The impact assessment and the regression models described in this study may be useful for evaluation of energy performances of IEQ policies. They will also be useful for the promotion of energy-saving measures in air-conditioned office buildings in Hong Kong. This study presented a useful source of references for policymakers, building professionals and end users to quantify the energy and environmental impacts due to an IEQ policy for air-conditioned office buildings

  18. The capital structure impact on forming company’s accounting policy

    OpenAIRE

    Česnavičiūtė, Giedrė

    2011-01-01

    KEWORDS: Accounting policy, accounting policy choice, disclosure of accounting policies, capital structure, financial leverage, legitimacy theory, agency theory, signal theory, stakeholder theory. The optimal structure of the capital has a huge impact assuring its goals and financial stability. The company’s appropriate situation of financial condition depends on the accounting policies formation as well. In this paper there was made the investigation of correlation of company’s capital struc...

  19. Growing Stem Cells: The Impact of Federal Funding Policy on the U.S. Scientific Frontier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furman, Jeffrey L.; Murray, Fiona; Stern, Scott

    2012-01-01

    This paper articulates a citation-based approach to science policy evaluation and employs that approach to investigate the impact of the United States' 2001 policy regarding the federal funding of human embryonic stem cell (hESC) research. We evaluate the impact of the policy on the level of U.S. hESC research, the U.S. position at the knowledge…

  20. Impact of advanced fuel cycle options on waste management policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gordelier, Stan; Cavedon, Jean-Marc

    2006-01-01

    OECD/NEA has performed a study on the impact of advanced fuel cycle options on waste management policies with 33 experts from 12 member countries, 1 non-member country and 2 international organizations. The study extends a series of previous ones on partitioning and transmutation (P and T) issues, focusing on the performance assessments for repositories of high-level waste (HLW) arising from advanced fuel cycles. This study covers a broader spectrum than previous studies, from present industrial practice to fully closed cycles via partially closed cycles (in terms of transuranic elements); 9 fuel cycle schemes and 4 variants. Elements of fuel cycles are considered primarily as sources of waste, the internal mass flows of each scheme being kept for the sake of mass conservation. The compositions, activities and heat loads of all waste flows are also tracked. Their impact is finally assessed on the waste repository concepts. The study result confirms the findings from the previous NEA studies on P and T on maximal reduction of the waste source term and maximal use of uranium resources. In advanced fuel cycle schemes the activity of the waste is reduced by burning first plutonium and then minor actinides and also the uranium consumption is reduced, as the fraction of fast reactors in the park is increased to 100%. The result of the repository performance assessments, analysing the effect of different HLW isotopic composition on repository performance and on repository capacity, shows that the maximum dose released to biosphere at any time in normal conditions remains, for all schemes and for all the repository concepts examined, well below accepted radiation protection thresholds. The major impact is on the detailed concept of the repositories, through heat load and waste volume. Advanced fuel cycles could allow a repository to cover waste produced from 5 to 20 times more electricity generation than PWR once-through cycle. Given the flexibility of the advanced fuel

  1. The impact of fiscal and monetary policies on unemployment problem in Nigeria (managerial economic perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nick Attamah

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the impact of fiscal and Monetary Policies on Unemployment Problem in Nigeria and covers the periods 1980 to 2013. To achieve this, fiscal policy was captured here by government expenditures and revenues respectively while monetary policy was proxied by broad Money Supply (M2, Interest and Exchange rates respectively. The methodology adopted was econometric analysis employing OLS techniques and unit roots of the series were examined using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller after which the co-integration tests was conducted using the Engle Granger approach. Error correction models were estimated to take care of the short run dynamics. It was found that while government expenditure had a positive relationship with unemployment problem in Nigeria, the result of government revenue was negative and insignificant on unemployment problem. For monetary policy, it was found that money supply and exchange rate had positive and significant impact while interest rate has only a positive relationship on unemployment problem in Nigeria. This meets the a priori expectation. The study also revealed that increases in interest and exchange rates escalate unemployment by increasing cost of production which discourages the private sector from employing large workforce. On the other hand, national productivity measured by real GDP had a negative and significant impact on unemployment rate in Nigeria. This paper recommends that for an effective combat to unemployment problem in Nigeria, there should be a systematic diversion of strategies, thus more emphasis should be laid on aggressively pursuing entrepreneurial development and increased productivity. Again government should aggressively focus on investment, employment generation and economic growth that has mechanism to trickle does to the masses

  2. Assessing groundwater policy with coupled economic-groundwater hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulligan, Kevin B.; Brown, Casey; Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Ahlfeld, David P.

    2014-03-01

    This study explores groundwater management policies and the effect of modeling assumptions on the projected performance of those policies. The study compares an optimal economic allocation for groundwater use subject to streamflow constraints, achieved by a central planner with perfect foresight, with a uniform tax on groundwater use and a uniform quota on groundwater use. The policies are compared with two modeling approaches, the Optimal Control Model (OCM) and the Multi-Agent System Simulation (MASS). The economic decision models are coupled with a physically based representation of the aquifer using a calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model. The results indicate that uniformly applied policies perform poorly when simulated with more realistic, heterogeneous, myopic, and self-interested agents. In particular, the effects of the physical heterogeneity of the basin and the agents undercut the perceived benefits of policy instruments assessed with simple, single-cell groundwater modeling. This study demonstrates the results of coupling realistic hydrogeology and human behavior models to assess groundwater management policies. The Republican River Basin, which overlies a portion of the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, is used as a case study for this analysis.

  3. Modeling of the maintenance policy of an offshore wind farm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maddens, L.; Labeau, P.E.

    2004-01-01

    Wind energy has a key position in the market of renewable electricity production means. Offshore wind farms offer additional surfaces to exploit this form of energy, together with more favourable wind conditions. Yet offshore windmills ask for higher investment and maintenance costs. Optimising the latter costs should therefore turn out to be particularly beneficial for this technology. The present paper summarizes the main modelling aspects of the maintenance of a typical offshore wind farm, such as the accessibility of the wind turbines and the impact of weather conditions, the cost of the different transport resources, the number of maintenance teams, a tolerated unavailability of part of the windmills, the opportunity to combine corrective and preventive maintenance actions on one or several windmills. All these features were embedded in a Petri net model of the maintenance policy of the farm, allowing to estimate the maintenance costs entailed by several strategies. Advantages and drawbacks of using Petri nets for the modelling of such a maintenance strategy are finally discussed. (authors)

  4. Assessing the Impact of Wind/PV Power Generation and Market Policies on Decentralized Hybrid Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    S.M. Arnoux, Luciana; Santiago, Leonardo

    In this paper, we offer a comprehensive approach to assess the impact of wind and photovoltaic power generation on decentralized hybrid systems. In particular, we focus on three performance measures of the energy system, namely reliability, costs, and efficiency. Most of the current studies focus...... level. Therefore, we appropriately assess the inherent uncertainty and design options. First, we use linear and quantile regression models to estimate the wind speed and solar insolation. Then, we use different quantiles as an input for the hybrid system design to assess market policies (e.g., net...

  5. Climate policies and learning by doing: Impacts and timing of technology subsidies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kverndokk, Snorre; Rosendahl, Knut Einar

    2007-01-01

    We study the role of technology subsidies in climate policies, using a simple dynamic equilibrium model with learning by doing. The optimal subsidy rate of a carbon-free technology is high when the technology is first adopted, but falls significantly over the next decades. However, the efficiency costs of uniform instead of optimal subsidies, may be low if there are adjustment costs for a new technology. Finally, supporting existing energy technologies only, may lead to technology lock-in, and the impacts of lock-in increase with the learning potential of new technologies as well as the possibilities for early entry. (author)

  6. THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY ON BANK CREDIT DURING ECONOMIC CRISIS: INDONESIA’S EXPERIENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Mongid

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The monetary policy mechanism by which monetary policy was transmitted to thereal economy had emerged as the pivotal discussion topic recently. This paper tried to discussthe impact of Bank Indonesia’s monetary policy on loan bank. By using simple loan bankframework we concluded that monetary policies were able to influence loan bank. Themonetary variables such as discount rate policy, base money and exchange rate policy werevery important in determining the banking credit. As the credit was very important to influencesthe economic activitiy, the result provided evidence that monetary policy was important as atool to control economic activity via credit channel. The validity of this study challenged thehypotheses that monetary policy was death. However, monetary policy maker should carefullyconsider the soundness of the banking industry because it was a strategic partner for monetaryauthority to control the economic activities.

  7. China's Population Policy at the Crossroads: Social Impacts and Prospects

    OpenAIRE

    Jiang, Quanbao; Li, Shuzhuo; Feldman, Marcus W.

    2013-01-01

    China's total fertility rate fell below replacement level in the 1990s. From the 1970s the fertility rate declined dramatically, mainly as a consequence of the national population policy whose aim has been to limit birth numbers, control population growth and boost economic growth. Having achieved such a low fertility rate, how will China's population policy evolve in the future? This paper first reviews the history of China's population policy since 1970 in terms of three stages: 1970-1979; ...

  8. Basel accord and financial intermediation: The impact of policy

    OpenAIRE

    Berka, Martin; Zimmermann, Christian

    2012-01-01

    This paper studies loan activity in a context where banks must follow Basel Accord-type rules and acquire financing from households. Loan activity typically decreases when entrepreneurs' investment returns decline, and we study which type of policy could reinvigorate an economy in a trough. We find that active monetary policy increases loan volume even when the economy is in good shape; introducing active capital requirement policy can be effective as well if it implies tightening of regulati...

  9. Impacts of Bioenergy Policies on Land-Use Change in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanley U. Okoro

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, bioenergy policies have increased the competition for land as well as the risk of adverse environmental impacts resulting from deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs. Primary land-use objectives confronting society today include meeting the growing demand for agricultural products, especially energy crops, preserving essential ecosystem services for human well-being and long-run agrarian production, and contributing to the climate policy target. Here, future agricultural, societal and environmental consequences of bioenergy policies under different global climate and societal development scenarios were assessed using a novel Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model for Nigeria (NGA–FASOM. The results reveal that, in Nigeria, meeting emission reduction requires an implementation of a minimum carbon price of $80/ton within the forest and agricultural sectors. A carbon price alone is not sufficient to preserve the remaining forests and pasture land in Nigeria when bioenergy is subsidized. Furthermore, the result shows that subsidy on bioenergy does not have any significant effect on the total social welfare. The findings in this study provide a guide for policymakers in designing appropriate policies addressing bioenergy industry issues in Nigeria.

  10. The economic impact of emission peaking control policies and China's sustainable development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Wang

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available To achieve the goals of national sustainable development, the peaking control of CO2 emissions is pivotal, as well as other pollutants. In this paper, we build a Chinese inter-regional CGE model and simulate 13 policies and their combinations. By analyzing the energy consumptions, coal consumptions, relating emissions and their impacts on GDP, we found that with the structure adjustment policy, the proportion of coal in primary fossil fuels in 2030 will decrease from 53% to 48% and CO2 emissions will decrease by 11.3%–22.8% compared to the baseline scenario. With the energy intensity reduction policy, CO2 emissions will decrease by 33.3% in 2030 and 47.8% in 2050 than baseline scenario. Other pollutants will also be controlled as synergetic effects. In this study we also find that although the earlier the peaking time the better for emission amounts control, the economic costs can not be ignored. The GDP will decrease by 2.96%–8.23% under different scenarios. Therefore, integrated policy solutions are needed for realizing the peaks package and more targeted measures are required to achieve the peaks of other pollutants earlier.

  11. The distribution of economic impacts among rural households: A general equilibrium evaluation of regional water policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wernstedt, K.

    1991-01-01

    This study focuses on the relative distribution among urban and rural household income classes on the economic impacts of two water-related policies in the Columbia River Basin in the northwestern US. The two policies involve: (1) strategies to improve downstream anadromous fish migrations currently hindered by hydropower operations; and (2) proposals to transfer water from irrigation to hydropower generation. A regional input-output model traces the economic effects of the initial demand and price changes through the entire region. The model incorporates price changes in both a short-run (all endogenous prices are fixed) and a longer-run framework based on a Cobb-Douglas representation (all prices can vary). The analysis suggests that the construction of facilities to enhance fish migration and the physical transport of fish have opposite relative effects. The former benefits rural households, while the latter benefits urban households. Electricity price increases resulting from altered hydropower operations harm middle-income rural households, in the short-run. In the longer-run, electricity price increases seem to favor relatively all rural households. Changes associated with the water transfer policy also include electricity price alterations, as well as price and demand changes for agricultural products. Rural households benefit relative to urban households from agricultural product final demand increases, and tend to lose relatively with agricultural price and demand decreases. The inclusion of secondary impacts allows decision makers to asses the income effects of a project across a wider segment of the population, while the incorporation of short-and longer-run economic frameworks allows policy makers to assess both immediate and future income changes

  12. The Impact of the Physical Activity Policy Research Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manteiga, Alicia M; Eyler, Amy A; Valko, Cheryl; Brownson, Ross C; Evenson, Kelly R; Schmid, Thomas

    2017-03-01

    Lack of physical activity is one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century. The Physical Activity Policy Research Network (PAPRN) is a thematic network established in 2004 to identify determinants, implementation, and outcomes of policies that are effective in increasing physical activity. The purpose of this study is to describe the products of PAPRN and make recommendations for future research and best practices. A mixed methods approach was used to obtain both quantitative and qualitative data on the network. First, in 2014, PAPRN's dissemination products from 2004 to 2014 were extracted and reviewed, including 57 publications and 56 presentations. Next, semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with 25 key network participants from 17 locations around the U.S. The transcripts were transcribed and coded. The results of the interviews indicated that the research network addressed several components of its mission, including the identification of physical activity policies, determinants of these policies, and the process of policy implementation. However, research focusing on physical activity policy outcomes was limited. Best practices included collaboration between researchers and practitioners and involvement of practitioners in research design, data collection, and dissemination of results. PAPRN is an example of a productive research network and has contributed to both the process and content of physical activity policy research over the past decade. Future research should emphasize physical activity policy outcomes. Additionally, increased partnerships with practitioners for collaborative, cross-sectoral physical activity policy research should be developed. Copyright © 2016 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

  13. Impacts of potential CO2-reduction policies on air quality in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trail, Marcus A; Tsimpidi, Alexandra P; Liu, Peng; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Hu, Yongtao; Rudokas, Jason R; Miller, Paul J; Nenes, Athanasios; Russell, Armistead G

    2015-04-21

    Impacts of emissions changes from four potential U.S. CO2 emission reduction policies on 2050 air quality are analyzed using the community multiscale air quality model (CMAQ). Future meteorology was downscaled from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE General Circulation Model (GCM) to the regional scale using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. We use emissions growth factors from the EPAUS9r MARKAL model to project emissions inventories for two climate tax scenarios, a combined transportation and energy scenario, a biomass energy scenario and a reference case. Implementation of a relatively aggressive carbon tax leads to improved PM2.5 air quality compared to the reference case as incentives increase for facilities to install flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. However, less capital is available to install NOX reduction technologies, resulting in an O3 increase. A policy aimed at reducing CO2 from the transportation sector and electricity production sectors leads to reduced emissions of mobile source NOX, thus reducing O3. Over most of the U.S., this scenario leads to reduced PM2.5 concentrations. However, increased primary PM2.5 emissions associated with fuel switching in the residential and industrial sectors leads to increased organic matter (OM) and PM2.5 in some cities.

  14. Models for policy-making in sustainable development. The state of the art and perspectives for research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boulanger, Paul-Marie; Brechet, Thierry

    2005-01-01

    More and more frequently policy-makers are urged to assess the impact of their strategies and policies in terms of sustainable development. This necessitates the use of applied scientific models as tools for identifying and evaluating the likely environmental, economic and social impacts of alternative policies. The objective of this paper is to provide a framework to help decision-makers choose the most appropriate-or the most appropriate mix-of models, by assessing their relative strengths and weaknesses. The paper also allows potential improvements in modeling techniques to be identified. Six modeling paradigms are assessed, both on a general basis and with respect to two specific policy contexts (energy policy, and land use and transport planning)

  15. New vehicle fuel economy in the UK: Impact of the recession and recent policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wadud, Zia

    2014-01-01

    Interests in vehicle fuel economy have increased in the past few years with the implementations of more stringent CAFE standard in USA and mandatory carbon emission standard in the EU. We seek to understand the effects of recent policies such as restructuring of Vehicle Excise Duties and EU standard on new vehicle fuel economy in the UK. In the past few years there have been substantial fluctuations in income and fuel prices, offering an interesting testing ground to understand their impact on the demand for fuel economy in vehicles. We use a monthly dataset to find that the emission standard is the largest driver for fuel economy improvements in recent years. Also, contrary to some recent findings in Europe and in UK, we find that income has an effect and that the recession had some role in improving the fuel economy. The effects of fuel prices were relatively small. Restructuring of the VED also improved new vehicle fuel economy in the UK, but the scrappage scheme had no significant effect. Results indicate that both supply and demand side policies are effective in improving fuel economy, although quantitatively the emission standard appears more effective due to its stringency. It is also important to consider the effects of income while devising demand side policies. - Highlights: • Econometric modelling and simulation of new vehicle fuel economy in UK. • EU carbon standard is the largest reason behind improving fuel economy. • Recession and associated reduction in income also had a role. • Fuel price has some impact on new car fuel economy, but small. • VED restructuring had an impact, but scrappage scheme's impact was insignificant

  16. Impact of Population Aging on Military and Security Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Šimková

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Population ageing is among the most important problems of developed European countries and the most frequently discussed social issues. The Czech Republic also faces population ageing and we cannot expect a different trend in the future. Life expectancy has increased due to better health care while current lifestyle often leads to lower natality, resulting in a negative rate of natural increase and a decreasing proportion of young people in population in the future. This problem affects all spheres of life and social and economic development. Population ageing may pose a threat to the security of the population in different ways. The functioning of the security system may be threatened due to decreasing workforce. Population ageing may undercut resources for military budgets. Young recruits represent an important part of military forces and the latter are competing in the labour market with more attractive occupations. Especially ensuring the stability of the personnel needed for securing crisis situations would be a significant problem of near future. This paper presents a demographic perspective on staffing and correct operation of military forces in the context of population ageing. It describes the current situation of human resources in the military policy of the Czech Republic and determines the negative impact of population ageing on recruitment potential. It deals with the sustainability of human resources for security forces.

  17. Impact of price deregulation policy on the affordability of essential medicines for women's health: a panel data analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Junjie; Wang, Liming; Liu, Chenxi; Zhang, Xinping

    2017-12-01

    A new policy which required deregulation on prices of off-patent medicines for women's health during procurement was introduced in China in September 2015. The current study examines this policy's impact on the affordability of essential medicines for women's health. Based on product-level panel data, a fixed effect regression model is employed by using procurement records from Hubei Centralist Tender for Drug Purchase platform. In the model, Affordability was measured with prices. The Competition consists of two parts: generic competition and therapeutic class competition which are measured with generic competitors and therapeutic substitutes. Instrument variable is used to deal with endogeneity. The policy helped control prices of essential medicines for women's health. Generic competition helped control prices, however, therapeutic class competition caused higher prices. The new policy helped enhance the affordability of essential medicines for women's health as expected, which provides empirical evidence on price deregulation. Besides, generic competition is important in price control despite strict regulatory system in China.

  18. Agricultural pricing policy in Kenya : scope and impact

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meilink, H.A.

    1985-01-01

    Reviews the findings of available studies and reports thought to be of relevance to policy makers. A discussion of the institutional framework, of criteria used in price-setting procedures, and of scope and objectives of the agricultural pricing policies is folowed by an examination of what these

  19. The Impact of Zero Tolerance Policy on Children with Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alnaim, Mariam

    2018-01-01

    The Zero Tolerance policy was intended to eliminate learners who are a danger to a learning institution (Henson, 2012). The development of this policy was to assist schools with better policing approaches of students conducts by employing tough disciplinary action and subsequently provide a safer learning environment. While the Zero Tolerance…

  20. The Business Impact of LGBT-Supportive Workplace Policies

    OpenAIRE

    Badgett, M.V. Lee; Durso, Laura E.; Mallory, Christy; Kastanis, Angeliki

    2013-01-01

    LGBT-supportive policies are linked to positive business-related outcomes. LGBT-supportive policies are also linked to greater job commitment, improved workplace relationships, increased job satisfaction, and improved health outcomes among LGBT employees. LGBT employees are also less likely to face discrimination in such environments and are more comfortable being open about their sexual orientation.

  1. Research and Policy in Education: Evidence, Ideology and Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitty, Geoff

    2016-01-01

    The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) tells us that 90 per cent of education reforms are not properly evaluated. So it seems that governments have not lived up to their own ideals of evidence-informed policymaking. "Research and Policy in Education" argues that education policy is as often driven by political…

  2. The French nuclear policy. A model for security policy in North-East Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choe, K.

    1998-01-01

    Between the end of the second world war and the collapse of the Berlin wall, the French diplomacy was based on the nuclear policy in a solid and coherent way. This nuclear policy was an 'incarnation' of the national security conception, allowing France to recover its political, military and economical rank on the international scene. The most important characteristic of the French nuclear policy concerns the commercialization of the nuclear energy which aims to ensuring the national security through the building up of a financial, technological and political 'reserve'. In front of the domination of the USA and USSR during the cold war era, NE Asia had a similar geostrategic configuration as Western Europe. It concerns in particular the massive application of nuclear energy for both military and industrial purposes. The bases of the security policy in this region refers to the real use of the nuclear weapon by the USA against Japan in 1945. The French nuclear policy may be considered as a model for the building of the security policy of NE Asia, in particular through the commercialization of the nuclear technology between the countries in concern. This nuclear approach would allow the countries of these region to change their present day national defense policy into an economical and military cooperation. (J.S.)

  3. Strategic environmental assessment policy integration model for solid waste management in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Victor, Dennis; Agamuthu, P.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • We identified policy drivers of SEA in solid waste policy planning. • The SEA primary policy drivers are benefits, barriers and enablers need. • The SEA sub-drivers are environmental attitude and environmental awareness. • Optimal SEA policy integration requires public participation and capacity building. • SEA integration should be a long-term sustainable policy strategy for SWM. -- Abstract: This paper examines the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) systemic policy drivers for solid waste management (SWM) policies, plans and programmes (PPP) in Malaysia. Solid waste generation in Malaysia has been increasing drastically from 9.0 million tonnes in 2000 to an expected 15.6 million tonnes in 2020. This projected rate of solid waste generation is expected to burden the country's environmental and water quality resources. The key problem the study frames is the lack of environmental integration in the SWM process which is only conducted during the environmental impact assessments (EIA) stage of SWM facilities. The purpose of this study is to expand the SEA subject knowledge by validating a behaviour based theoretical framework and identifying key policy drivers that influence the integration of SEA in SWM policy planning. The study methodology utilized a confirmatory covariance based structural equation modelling approach to validate the proposed theoretical model based on the policy makers/implementers interview questionnaire data collection. The study findings indicate five latent SEA policy drivers which were named policy knowledge, environmental attitude, perceived benefits, perceived barriers and perceived enablers. The study has conceptualized and tested a SEA policy model which indicates that SEA integration behaviour is influenced directly by three main drivers (perception of benefits, perception of barriers and perception of enablers) and influenced indirectly by two sub-drivers environmental attitude and environmental knowledge

  4. Federalism and decentralization: impact on international and Brazilian health policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leite, Valéria Rodrigues; de Vasconcelos, Cipriano Maia; Lima, Kenio Costa

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses the implications of decentralization in the light of international and Brazilian federalism, and its effects on public health policy. In a comparative analysis among countries, the authors find there is no single model; rather, each country has a unique structure of institutions and norms that have important implications for the operation of its health system. Brazil shares some similarities with other countries that have adopted a decentralized system and is assuming features ever closer to U.S. federalism, with a complex web of relationships. The degree of inequality among Brazilian municipalities and states, along with the budgetary imbalances caused by the minimal levels of resource utilization, undermines Brazil's constitutional principles and, consequently, its federalism. To ensure the constitutional mandate in Brazil, it is essential, as in other countries, to create a stable source of funds and increase the volume and efficiency of spending. Also important are investing in the training of managers, improving information systems, strengthening the principles of autonomy and interdependence, and defining patterns of cooperation within the federation.

  5. Trade policy-making in a model of legislative bargaining

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Celik, Levent; Karabay, Bilgehan; McLaren, J.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 91, č. 2 (2013), s. 179-190 ISSN 0022-1996 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP402/12/0666 Grant - others:UK(CZ) UNCE 204005/2012 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : trade policy * multilateral legislative bargaining * political economy Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.443, year: 2013

  6. A simulation model for reliability-based appraisal of an energy policy: The case of Lebanon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamdan, H.A.; Ghajar, R.F.; Chedid, R.B.

    2012-01-01

    The Lebanese Electric Power System (LEPS) has been suffering from technical and financial deficiencies for decades and mirrors the problems encountered in many developing countries suffering from inadequate or no power systems planning resulting in incomplete and ill-operating infrastructure, and suffering from effects of political instability, huge debts, unavailability of financing desired projects and inefficiency in operation. The upgrade and development of the system necessitate the adoption of a comprehensive energy policy that introduces solutions to a diversity of problems addressing the technical, financial, administrative and governance aspects of the system. In this paper, an energy policy for Lebanon is proposed and evaluated based on integration between energy modeling and financial modeling. The paper utilizes the Load Modification Technique (LMT) as a probabilistic tool to assess the impact of policy implementation on energy production, overall cost, technical/commercial losses and reliability. Scenarios reflecting implementation of policy projects are assessed and their impacts are compared with business-as-usual scenarios which assume no new investment is to take place in the sector. Conclusions are drawn on the usefulness of the proposed evaluation methodology and the effectiveness of the adopted energy policy for Lebanon and other developing countries suffering from similar power system problems. - Highlights: ► Evaluation methodology based on a probabilistic simulation tool is proposed. ► A business-as-usual scenario for a given study period of the LEPS was modeled. ► Mitigation scenarios reflecting implementation of the energy policy are modeled. ► Policy simulated and compared with business-as-usual scenarios of the LEPS. ► Results reflect usefulness of proposed methodology and the adopted energy policy.

  7. Cumulative Impacts of Energy and Climate Change Policies on Carbon Leakage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varma, A.; Milnes, R.; Miller, K.; Williams, E. [AEA Technology plc, London (United Kingdom); De Bruyn, S.; Brinke, L. [CE Delft, Delft (Netherlands)

    2012-02-15

    Carbon leakage occurs when climate change policy aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions in one country leads to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions in a country that is not bound by these policies. Given that climate change is a global issue, carbon leakage impacts upon the effectiveness of climate change policies. This independent study examines the cumulative impact of climate change policies on carbon leakage. The report brings together findings and analysis from a wide range of primary literature in this area and where possible, conclusions relevant to the UK are drawn.

  8. Integrated impact assessment of climate change, land use, and adaptation policies on water quality in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trautvetter, Helen; Schoenhart, Martin; Parajaka, Juraj; Schmid, Erwin; Zessner, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    Climate change is one of the major challenges of our time and adds considerable stress to the human society and environment. A change in climate will not only shift general weather patterns, but might also increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. These changes in climatic conditions will affect the quality and quantity of water resources both directly as well as indirectly through autonomous adaptation by farmers (e.g. cultivar choices, fertilization intensity or soil management). This will influence the compliance with the good ecological and chemical status according to the EU Water Framework Directive. We present results from an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to tackle those direct and indirect impacts and analyze policy options for planned adaptation in agricultural land use and sustainable management of land and water resources until 2040. The IIMF is the result of an interdisciplinary collaboration among economists, agronomists, and hydrologists. It consists of the bio-physical process model EPIC, the regional land use optimization model PASMA[grid], the quantitative precipitation/runoff TUWmodel and the surface water emission model MONERIS. Scenarios have been developed and parameterized in collaboration with stakeholders in order to facilitate multi-actor knowledge transfer. The set of climate change scenarios until 2040 includes three scenarios with equal temperature changes but varying precipitation patterns. They are combined with potential socio-economic and policy development. The latter include water protection measures on fertilization management, soil management, or crop rotation choices. We will presented the development of interfaces among the research, the definition of scenarios and major scenario results for Austria. We will focus on nutrient emissions to surface waters, which are the major link between the different models. The results, available at watershed level indicate the

  9. Moderation of Policy-Making? : Science and Technology Policy Evaluation Beyond Impact Measurement—the Case of Germany

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuhlmann, Stefan

    1998-01-01

    In the field of science and technology policies, for the most part, evaluation procedures are utilized as a way of measuring the scientific and technological quality or the socio-economic impacts of publicly funded research. Beyond this practice, could evaluation procedures be used as a medium for

  10. Optimal Pricing and Advertising Policies for New Product Oligopoly Models

    OpenAIRE

    Gerald L. Thompson; Jinn-Tsair Teng

    1984-01-01

    In this paper our previous work on monopoly and oligopoly new product models is extended by the addition of pricing as well as advertising control variables. These models contain Bass's demand growth model, and the Vidale-Wolfe and Ozga advertising models, as well as the production learning curve model and an exponential demand function. The problem of characterizing an optimal pricing and advertising policy over time is an important question in the field of marketing as well as in the areas ...

  11. Applications of system dynamics modelling to support health policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Jo-An M; Wells, Robert; Page, Andrew; Dominello, Amanda; Haines, Mary; Wilson, Andrew

    2015-07-09

    The value of systems science modelling methods in the health sector is increasingly being recognised. Of particular promise is the potential of these methods to improve operational aspects of healthcare capacity and delivery, analyse policy options for health system reform and guide investments to address complex public health problems. Because it lends itself to a participatory approach, system dynamics modelling has been a particularly appealing method that aims to align stakeholder understanding of the underlying causes of a problem and achieve consensus for action. The aim of this review is to determine the effectiveness of system dynamics modelling for health policy, and explore the range and nature of its application. A systematic search was conducted to identify articles published up to April 2015 from the PubMed, Web of Knowledge, Embase, ScienceDirect and Google Scholar databases. The grey literature was also searched. Papers eligible for inclusion were those that described applications of system dynamics modelling to support health policy at any level of government. Six papers were identified, comprising eight case studies of the application of system dynamics modelling to support health policy. No analytic studies were found that examined the effectiveness of this type of modelling. Only three examples engaged multidisciplinary stakeholders in collective model building. Stakeholder participation in model building reportedly facilitated development of a common 'mental map' of the health problem, resulting in consensus about optimal policy strategy and garnering support for collaborative action. The paucity of relevant papers indicates that, although the volume of descriptive literature advocating the value of system dynamics modelling is considerable, its practical application to inform health policy making is yet to be routinely applied and rigorously evaluated. Advances in software are allowing the participatory model building approach to be extended to

  12. Impact of two policy interventions on dietary diversity in Ecuador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponce, Juan; Ramos-Martin, Jesus

    2017-06-01

    To differentiate the effects of food vouchers and training in health and nutrition on consumption and dietary diversity in Ecuador by using an experimental design. Interventions involved enrolling three groups of approximately 200 randomly selected households per group in three provinces in Ecuador. Power estimates and sample size were computed using the Optimal Design software, with a power of 80 %, at 5 % of significance and with a minimum detectable effect of 0·25 (sd). The first group was assigned to receive a monthly food voucher of $US 40. The second group was assigned to receive the same $US 40 voucher, plus training on health and nutrition issues. The third group served as the control. Weekly household values of food consumption were converted into energy intake per person per day. A simple proxy indicator was constructed for dietary diversity, based on the Food Consumption Score. Finally, an econometric model with three specifications was used for analysing the differential effect of the interventions. Three provinces in Ecuador, two from the Sierra region (Carchi and Chimborazo) and one from the Coastal region (Santa Elena). Members of 773 households randomly selected (n 4343). No significant impact on consumption for any of the interventions was found. However, there was evidence that voucher systems had a positive impact on dietary diversity. No differentiated effects were found for the training intervention. The most cost-effective intervention to improve dietary diversity in Ecuador is the use of vouchers to support family choice in food options.

  13. How reliably can climate change and mitigation policy impacts on electric utilities be assessed?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kopp, R.J.; Palmer, K.; De Witt, D.

    1993-01-01

    Numerous mechanisms link climate change and electric utilities. Electricity generation releases radiatively active trace substances (RATS). Significant changes in atmospheric concentration of RATS can lead to a change in regional and global climate regimes. Mitigation action designed to prevent or limit climate change is possible through curbing emissions. Climate change and related mitigation actions impact on electric utilities. Foresight in electric utility planning requires reliable predictions of how the utilities may be affected in the decades ahead. In this paper the impacts of climate change and mitigation policies are noted, and our ability to assess these is reviewed. To this end a suite of models exploring supply and demand questions have been developed. The overall conclusion of the study is that the demand-side uncertainties dominate other unknowns and need to be better characterized and understood. (author)

  14. Eloquence is The Key – the Impact of Monetary Policy Speeches on Exchange Rate Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian Cantemir Călin

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available During the last years the monetary policy initiatives of the main central banks have been profoundly influenced by quantitative easing (QE. Blessing, curse, effective instruments or a simple fad, these unconventional measures have occupied the center stage of academic and public attention. In this context, this paper focuses on a wide set of public speeches delivered by officials belonging to the most relevant central banks. These statements cover a large pallet of topics including areas such as QE, tapering, financial stability, unemployment or interest rates. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact that these speeches have on the volatility of exchange rates. For this purpose, the methodology relies on an econometric event study that incorporates three volatility models and intraday five-minute frequencies. The results indicate the fact that public statements have a clear, evident, significant and robust impact on the observed assets.

  15. The Impact of Fiscal Policies on the Socioeconomic Determinants of Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosquera, Isabel; González-Rábago, Yolanda; Bacigalupe, Amaia; Suhrcke, Marc

    2017-04-01

    There has been considerable recent debate around the alleged impact of discretionary fiscal policies - especially austerity policies - on health and health inequalities. Assuming that most of the impact will have to run via the effect of fiscal policies on socioeconomic determinants of health (SDH), it is of interest to gain a further understanding of the relationship between fiscal policies and SDH. Therefore, the aim of this article is to review the recent evidence on the impact of discretionary fiscal policies on key SDH, i.e. income, poverty, education, and employment, in high income OECD countries. We find that there are no simple answers as to how fiscal policy affects those determinants of health. The effects of contractionary and expansionary fiscal policies on the analyzed SDH vary considerably across countries and will largely depend on the pre-crisis situation. Contractionary fiscal policies seem to have increased poverty, while their impact on income inequality will be influenced by the composition of the implemented measures. More empirical research trying to directly link fiscal policies to health outcomes, while taking into account of some of the mechanisms encountered here, would be worthwhile.

  16. The impact of price and tobacco control policies on the demand for electronic nicotine delivery systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jidong; Tauras, John; Chaloupka, Frank J

    2014-07-01

    While much is known about the demand for conventional cigarettes, little is known about the determinants of demand for electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS or e-cigarettes). The goal of this study is to estimate the own and cross-price elasticity of demand for e-cigarettes and to examine the impact of cigarette prices and smoke-free policies on e-cigarette sales. Quarterly e-cigarette prices and sales and conventional cigarette prices from 2009 to 2012 were constructed from commercial retail store scanner data from 52 U.S. markets, for food, drug and mass stores, and from 25 markets, for convenience stores. Fixed-effects models were used to estimate the own and cross-price elasticity of demand for e-cigarettes and associations between e-cigarette sales and cigarette prices and smoke-free policies. Estimated own price elasticities for disposable e-cigarettes centred around -1.2, while those for reusable e-cigarettes were approximately -1.9. Disposable e-cigarette sales were higher in markets where reusable e-cigarette prices were higher and where less of the population was covered by a comprehensive smoke-free policy. There were no consistent and statistically significant relationships between cigarette prices and e-cigarette sales. E-cigarette sales are very responsive to own price changes. Disposable e-cigarettes appear to be substitutes for reusable e-cigarettes. Policies increasing e-cigarette retail prices, such as limiting rebates, discounts and coupons and imposing a tax on e-cigarettes, could potentially lead to significant reductions in e-cigarette sales. Differential tax policies based on product type could lead to substitution between different types of e-cigarettes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  17. The impact of price and tobacco control policies on the demand for electronic nicotine delivery systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jidong; Tauras, John; Chaloupka, Frank J

    2014-01-01

    Background While much is known about the demand for conventional cigarettes, little is known about the determinants of demand for electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS or e-cigarettes). The goal of this study is to estimate the own and cross-price elasticity of demand for e-cigarettes and to examine the impact of cigarette prices and smoke-free policies on e-cigarette sales. Methods Quarterly e-cigarette prices and sales and conventional cigarette prices from 2009 to 2012 were constructed from commercial retail store scanner data from 52 US markets, for food, drug and mass stores, and from 25 markets, for convenience stores. Fixed-effects models were used to estimate the own and cross-price elasticity of demand for e-cigarettes and associations between e-cigarette sales and cigarette prices and smoke-free policies. Results Estimated own price elasticities for disposable e-cigarettes centred around −1.2, while those for reusable e-cigarettes were approximately −1.9. Disposable e-cigarette sales were higher in markets where reusable e-cigarette prices were higher and where less of the population was covered by a comprehensive smoke-free policy. There were no consistent and statistically significant relationships between cigarette prices and e-cigarette sales. Conclusions E-cigarette sales are very responsive to own price changes. Disposable e-cigarettes appear to be substitutes for reusable e-cigarettes. Policies increasing e-cigarette retail prices, such as limiting rebates, discounts and coupons and imposing a tax on e-cigarettes, could potentially lead to significant reductions in e-cigarette sales. Differential tax policies based on product type could lead to substitution between different types of e-cigarettes. PMID:24935898

  18. Impacts of public policy on rail development in Missouri.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-09-01

    Identifying the State policies that most directly affect or advance railroad development begins with an : understanding of how railroads make investment decisions. Railroads are a capital-intensive business, : owning all physical assets, locomotives,...

  19. he Distributional Impact Of A Carbon Tax Policy In Indonesia

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Laos, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines ... Environmental Policy: The Case of Carbon Tax and Energy Pricing Reform in Indonesia", by Dr. Arief ... i.e., the burden is borne more by lower income .... privileged members of society.

  20. Evaluating business models for microgrids: Interactions of technology and policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanna, Ryan; Ghonima, Mohamed; Kleissl, Jan; Tynan, George; Victor, David G.

    2017-01-01

    Policy makers are increasingly focused on strategies to decentralize the electricity grid. We analyze the business model for one mode of decentralization—microgrids—and quantify the economics for self-supply of electricity and thermal energy and explicitly resolve technological as well as policy variables. We offer a tool, based on the Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model (DER-CAM) modeling framework, that determines the cost-minimal capacity and operation of distributed energy resources in a microgrid, and apply it in southern California to three “iconic” microgrid types which represent typical commercial adopters: a large commercial building, critical infrastructure, and campus. We find that optimal investment leads to some deployment of renewables but that natural gas technologies underpin the most robust business cases—due in part to relatively cheap gas and high electricity rates. This finding contrasts sharply with most policy advocacy, which has focused on the potentials for decentralization of the grid to encourage deployment of renewables. Decentralization could radically reduce customer energy costs, but without the right policy framework it could create large numbers of small decentralized sources of gas-based carbon emissions that will be difficult to control if policy makers want to achieve deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. - Highlights: • We offer a modeling tool to study technology and policy variables for microgrids. • We construct comprehensive load profiles for three likely adopters of microgrids. • Investment in natural gas generators is key to enabling business models. • Solar PV and storage are optimal but as supplements to gas generation. • Business models are highly robust to sensitivity in technology and policy variables.

  1. Does health intervention research have real world policy and practice impacts: testing a new impact assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Gillian; Schroeder, Jacqueline; Newson, Robyn; King, Lesley; Rychetnik, Lucie; Milat, Andrew J; Bauman, Adrian E; Redman, Sally; Chapman, Simon

    2015-01-01

    There is a growing emphasis on the importance of research having demonstrable public benefit. Measurements of the impacts of research are therefore needed. We applied a modified impact assessment process that builds on best practice to 5 years (2003-2007) of intervention research funded by Australia's National Health and Medical Research Council to determine if these studies had post-research real-world policy and practice impacts. We used a mixed method sequential methodology whereby chief investigators of eligible intervention studies who completed two surveys and an interview were included in our final sample (n = 50), on which we conducted post-research impact assessments. Data from the surveys and interviews were triangulated with additional information obtained from documentary analysis to develop comprehensive case studies. These case studies were then summarized and the reported impacts were scored by an expert panel using criteria for four impact dimensions: corroboration; attribution, reach, and importance. Nineteen (38%) of the cases in our final sample were found to have had policy and practice impacts, with an even distribution of high, medium, and low impact scores. While the tool facilitated a rigorous and explicit criterion-based assessment of post-research impacts, it was not always possible to obtain evidence using documentary analysis to corroborate the impacts reported in chief investigator interviews. While policy and practice is ideally informed by reviews of evidence, some intervention research can and does have real world impacts that can be attributed to single studies. We recommend impact assessments apply explicit criteria to consider the corroboration, attribution, reach, and importance of reported impacts on policy and practice. Impact assessments should also allow sufficient time between impact data collection and completion of the original research and include mechanisms to obtain end-user input to corroborate claims and reduce biases

  2. A five-Stage Socio-Economic Change Model of the Impact of Resettlement Policy on Human Welfare in Semi-Arid Lands of Kenya: A Case Study of Muuni Community in Makueni District

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gitunu, A.M.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper discusses relocation stress experienced by an agro-pastoral community of Makueni district during eviction from their former settlement areas thus causing the untold socio-cultural and economic suffering during eviction, transitional, shifting and resettlement stages. The relocation involved three communities formerly settled in Chyulu hills in Makueni district, Kalembwani in Kajiado district and Kibwezi township in Makueni district whose occupation was agro-pastoral production. The relocation was involuntary and unplanned and had adversely disrupted their food-security, socio-cultural and economic welfare. The study of the Muuni community spanned a period of over three years (1996 - 1999). The '5-stage socio-economic change model' studied in this study shows the ensuring adjustment process most likely to be experienced when top-down policy decisions are taken and how this affects farming communities within semi-arid lands of Kenya where involuntary and unplanned resettlement of people takes place

  3. Interaction of the EU ETS and national climate policy instruments – Impact on biomass use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kautto, N.; Arasto, A.; Sijm, J.; Peck, P.

    2012-01-01

    Policy-makers apply multiple policy instruments simultaneously in the climate and energy policy field at both EU and Member State levels. This creates interactions between instruments that can be complementary and synergistic but also conflicting. This article focuses on the interactions of climate policy instruments and their impact on biomass use. The objectives are to examine interactions of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) with the main national climate policy instruments and to identify the influence of these on biomass use. The work draws experiences from seven EU countries (Austria, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom), with a special focus on Finland and Sweden. The analysis explores the effects of policy interactions and is based on an examination of literature, and interviews with biomass experts in research, industry and policy spheres. Results indicate that the combined effects of climate policy instruments have a tangible impact on biomass use, whereas the causal links to the EU ETS are difficult to assess separately. Policy impacts found include increased competition for biomass resources, changes in fuel mixes and a contribution to upward pressure on wood prices. Differences in these effects are linked to differing national policy mixes and energy-carrier portfolios – an example being the relative differences in the importance of peat to the energy mix in Finland and Sweden. Analysis and comparison of the effects in the selected countries can yield insight on how to improve the design of policy interventions that impact biomass use. This study confirms the importance of identifying interactions between policy instruments so as to recognise – and manage – synergies and conflicts. The development of more synergistic and coordinated policy instrument mixes would also be beneficial for the bioenergy field. -- Highlights: ► Combined effects of climate policy instruments have a tangible impact on biomass

  4. Evaluating energy efficiency policies with energy-economy models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mundaca, L.; Neij, L.; Worrell, E.; McNeil, M.

    2010-01-01

    The growing complexities of energy systems, environmental problems, and technology markets are driving and testing most energy-economy models to their limits. To further advance bottom-up models from a multidisciplinary energy efficiency policy evaluation perspective, we review and critically

  5. Impact of monetary policy on the volatility of stock market in pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Abdul Qayyum; Saba Anwa

    2010-01-01

    This paper addresses the linkages between the monetary policy and the stock market in Pakistan. The estimation technique employed includes Engle Granger two step procedure and the bivariate EGARCH method. The results indicate that any change in the monetary policy stance have a significant impact on the volatility of the stock market. Thus contributing to the ongoing debate in the monetary policy rule literature regarding the proactive and reactive approach.

  6. Data driven mathematical models for policy making

    OpenAIRE

    Nannyonga, Betty

    2011-01-01

    This thesis consists of two papers. 1. Betty Nannyonga, D.J.T. Sumpter, J.Y.T. Mugisha and L.S. Luboobi: The Dynamics,causes and possible prevention of Hepaititis E outbreaks. 2. Betty Nannyonga, D.J.T. Sumpter, andStam Nicolis: A dynamical systems approach tosocial and economic development. The first paper deals with a deterministic approach of modelling a Hepatitis E outbreak whenmalaria is endemic in a population. We design three models based on the epidemiology ofHepatitis E, malaria, and...

  7. Equality machineries matter: The impact of women's political pressure on European social care policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bleijenbergh, I.L.; Roggeband, C.M.

    2007-01-01

    This study examines the impact of feminist pressure and European Union (EU) policies on national policy changes, such as the introduction or extension of public childcare provision, parental leave, and part-time work legislation. We compared six countries on the basis of Qualitative Comparative

  8. The Impact of Assessment Policy on Learning: Replacement Exams or Grade Dropping

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDermott, Raymond J.

    2013-01-01

    Instructors often debate the merits of alternate grading policies such as dropping the lowest exam or offering an additional exam to replace the lowest score. To date, there has been little research conducted on the impact of these policies on performance. In this study, the author investigates student performance in intermediate macroeconomics…

  9. Financial impacts of UK's energy and climate change policies on commercial and industrial businesses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ang, Chye Peng; Toper, Bruce; Gambhir, Ajay

    2016-01-01

    This study provides a detailed case study assessment of two business sites in the UK, to understand the policy drivers of increases to their energy costs and energy bills, considering all current UK energy and climate change policies. We compare our findings to more generalised, theoretical calculations of the policy cost impact on energy costs and bills – we have found no other studies as comprehensive as ours in terms of policy coverage. We find that for one site the government has over-estimated the likely energy savings due to energy efficiency options. Such differences in estimates should be taken into account when considering the efficacy of climate change policies on future energy savings. The overall impact of energy and climate change policies on costs will be of the order 0.4% of total business costs by 2020. This provides an important metric for the near-term cost of mitigation to meet longer-term climate change goals. - Highlights: •Cumulative impacts of policies on energy prices and bills were studied. •Projected bills for one site are higher than those projected by the UK government. •Results of existing theoretical studies may not be fully representative. •Impact of policies is not considered significant with respect to competitiveness.

  10. National Language Policy and Its Impacts on Second Language Reading Culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azmi, Mohd Nazri Latiff

    2013-01-01

    This research concentrates on Malaysian language policy and its impacts on the development of English language (regarded as a second language in Malaysia) specifically on reading culture. The main objectives of this research are to investigate the weaknesses and strengths of the policy and also to come out with recommendations to improve the…

  11. Education Policy in Poland: The Impact of PISA (and Other International Studies)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bialecki, Ireneusz; Jakubowski, Maciej; Wisniewski, Jerzy

    2017-01-01

    The impact of the PISA study on Polish education policy has been significant, but probably different from any other country. Poland has not experienced the so-called "PISA shock," but its education system has been benefiting considerably from PISA. For experts and policy makers, it has been a useful and reliable instrument that has made…

  12. The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Poverty in Ethiopia: A Computable ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ethiopia has implemented various fiscal policy reforms in the past decade. Most of these reforms center on indirect taxes and pro-poor expenditure patterns. This study investigates the economy-wide impacts of these fiscal policy changes on poverty. To this effect, the study used a static computable general equilibrium ...

  13. The impact of foresight on environmental science and technology policy in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Meulen, Barend

    1999-01-01

    Globalisation, high tech development and environmental issues have made policy makers aware again of the possibilities of future studies for policy making. However, the lack of systematic knowledge about their impact is a major obstruction to a proper use of future studies. Especially since future

  14. The impact of policy on firms' performance: the case of CNC machine tool industry in India

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kumar, A.

    2003-01-01

    This study is about understanding how the government policy actually works at firm level in the context of developing countries' industrialization. In the literature, the discussions on impact of government policy on corporate performance primarily stress on macroeconomic aspects of industrial

  15. Impact of NOx Emission Reduction Policy on Hospitalizations for Respiratory Disease in New York State

    Science.gov (United States)

    To date, only a limited number of studies have examined the impact of ambient pollutant policy on respiratory morbidities. This accountability study examined the effect of a regional pollution control policy, namely, the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) nitrogen oxides ...

  16. The Impact of Price, Tax, and Advertising Policies on Alcohol Use in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    It will examine the impact of pricing, taxation, and advertising policies on ... of users vs. non-users and consumption -influence of socio-economic status, gender, ... and limitations of current tax and advertising strategies in the four countries.

  17. The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Poverty in Ethiopia: A Computable ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Daniel

    study investigates the economy-wide impacts of these fiscal policy changes on poverty. ... of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in the 1990s and ..... factors of production (labor, land, livestock and capital), 7 institutions (an.

  18. Impact of tobacco tax and price policies on tobacco use in China ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    However, the number of studies examining the impact of a tobacco tax and price policies in China are few. Given China's current low and inefficient cigarette excise tax, and high cigarette affordability, there is ... Agent(e) responsable du CRDI.

  19. The Impact of the Regional Policy on the European Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romeo-Victor Ionescu

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, EU28 operates in a very sensitive socio-economic environment. This is why the paper faces to the idea of changing the political approach in the EU. In order to support this idea, two essential common policies (Regional Policy and Cohesion Policy are analyzed, using pertinent indicators, as GDP per capita, gross value added and labor productivity. A comparative analysis covers EU28 and Euro area. On the other hand, the regional analysis points out the economic disparities between NUTS2 regions. The intermediate conclusions of the analysis led to a cluster approach for the Member States. Moreover, the forecasting procedures applied to the above three economic indicators led to the same idea: an EU more divided than integrated. The main conclusion of the paper is that the present economic approach has to be change into another focused on maintaining and, after that, decreasing the present European socio-economic disparities.

  20. Projection of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions by motor vehicles in China: Policy options and impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huo Hong; Wang, Michael; Zhang Xiliang; He Kebin; Gong Huiming; Jiang Kejun; Jin Yuefu; Shi Yaodong; Yu Xin

    2012-01-01

    We project the well-to-wheels (WTW) and tank-to-wheels (TTW) fossil-energy use, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the road-transport sector in China up to year 2050 and evaluate the effects of various potential policy options with the fuel economy and environmental impacts (FEEI) model ( (http://www.feeimodel.org/)). The policies evaluated include (1) vehicle fuel-consumption improvements, (2) dieselization, (3) vehicle electrification, and (4) fuel diversification, with plausible policy scenarios. Under the business-as-usual scenario, road transport in China would create 410–520 million metric tons (MMT) of oil-equivalent of TTW oil demand (three to four times the current level), 28–36 billion GJ of WTW energy demand, and 1900–2300 MMT of CO 2 -equivalent of WTW GHG emissions by 2050. The policies (in the same order as above) are projected to reduce the TTW oil demand by 35%, 10%, 29%, and 44%, and reduce WTW GHG emissions by 34%, 5%, 12%, and 13%, respectively, by 2050. This evaluation reveals that the fuel-consumption improvement policy could achieve greater benefit in reducing oil use, fossil-energy use, and GHG emissions. Implications of each policy option are discussed and the uncertainties associated with the policy scenarios are analyzed. - Highlights: ► Fuel-cycle energy use and GHG emissions of vehicles in China are projected up to 2050. ► Various policies are evaluated with the fuel economy and environmental impacts model. ► Fuel economy standards have greatest benefit in saving energy use and GHG emissions. ► Electrification is effective. Benefit of dieselization and fuel blending is limited.

  1. Determining the privacy policy deficiencies of health ICT applications through semi-formal modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croll, Peter R

    2011-02-01

    To ensure that patient confidentiality is securely maintained, health ICT applications that contain sensitive personal information demand comprehensive privacy policies. Determining the adequacy of these policies to meet legal conformity together with clinical users and patient expectation is demanding in practice. Organisations and agencies looking to analyse their Privacy and Security policies can benefit from guidance provided by outside entities such as the Privacy Office of their State or Government together with law firms and ICT specialists. The advice given is not uniform and often open to different interpretations. Of greater concern is the possibility of overlooking any important aspects that later result in a data breach. Based on three case studies, this paper considers whether a more formal approach to privacy analysis could be taken that would help identify the full coverage of a Privacy Impact Analysis and determine the deficiencies with an organisation's current policies and approach. A diagrammatic model showing the relationships between Confidentiality, Privacy, Trust, Security and Safety is introduced. First the validity of this model is determined by mapping it against the real-world case studies taken from three healthcare services that depend on ICT. Then, by using software engineering methods, a formal mapping of the relationships is undertaken to identify a full set of policies needed to satisfy the model. How effective this approach may prove as a generic method for deriving a comprehensive set of policies in health ICT applications is finally discussed. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Analysis of National and EU Policies Supporting CSR and Impact

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moon, Jeremy; Slager, Rieneke; Anastasiadis, Stephanos

    . These policies tend to reflect a general trend from endorsement (e.g. rhetoric, conferences, networks, awards, labeling, public procurement); through facilitation (e.g. subsidies, tax incentives); and partnership (e.g. governmental collaboration with business organizations and, very often, also with civil...... society organizations); to mandate (e.g. for accounting or reporting standards). However, the trajectories between and combinations of these policy types also vary among countries (see below). Collectively they tend to reflect broader trends in new governance which stress participation, networks...

  3. Public participation and environmental impact assessment: Purposes, implications, and lessons for public policy making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Faircheallaigh, Ciaran

    2010-01-01

    In recent years the need to enhance public participation in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), and the efficacy of alternative mechanisms in achieving this goal, have been central themes in the EIA literature. The benefits of public participation are often taken for granted, and partly for this reason the underlying rationale for greater public participation is sometimes poorly articulated, making it more difficult to determine how to pursue it effectively. The reasons for seeking public participation are also highly diverse and not always mutually consistent. There has been limited analysis of the implications of different forms and degrees of public participation for public decision making based on EIA, and little discussion of how experience with public participation in EIA relates to debates about participation in policy making generally. This paper distinguishes various purposes for public participation in EIA, and discusses their implications for decision making. It then draws on some general models of public participation in policy making to consider how approaches to participation in EIA can be interpreted and valued, and asks what EIA experience reveals about the utility of these models. It argues that the models pay insufficient attention to the interaction that can occur between different forms of public participation; and to the fact that public participation raises issues regarding control over decision making that are not subject to resolution, but must be managed through ongoing processes of negotiation.

  4. MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM AND TVP-VAR MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea ROŞOIU

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The transmission of monetary policy to the economy is a subject of major importance for central banks because, by using these measures, central banks can achieve their purpose of ensuring price stability without neglecting the objective of sustainable economic growth. In order to analyze the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Romania, a time varying structural vector autoregression model is estimated, by using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the posterior evolution. The conclusions of the empirical study are: both systematic and non-systematic monetary policy have changed during the investigated period of time, the systematic response of the interest rate to shocks in inflation and unemployment being faster over the recent period. Also, non-policy shocks seem more important than interest rate shocks in explaining inflation and unemployment evolution.

  5. The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence: results from the Michigan SimSmoke tobacco policy simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, David T; Huang, An-Tsun; Havumaki, Joshua S; Meza, Rafael

    2016-05-01

    Michigan has implemented several of the tobacco control policies recommended by the World Health Organization MPOWER goals. We consider the effect of those policies and additional policies consistent with MPOWER goals on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs). The SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model is used to examine the effect of past policies and a set of additional policies to meet the MPOWER goals. The model is adapted to Michigan using state population, smoking, and policy data starting in 1993. SADs are estimated using standard attribution methods. Upon validating the model, SimSmoke is used to distinguish the effect of policies implemented since 1993 against a counterfactual with policies kept at their 1993 levels. The model is then used to project the effect of implementing stronger policies beginning in 2014. SimSmoke predicts smoking prevalence accurately between 1993 and 2010. Since 1993, a relative reduction in smoking rates of 22 % by 2013 and of 30 % by 2054 can be attributed to tobacco control policies. Of the 22 % reduction, 44 % is due to taxes, 28 % to smoke-free air laws, 26 % to cessation treatment policies, and 2 % to youth access. Moreover, 234,000 SADs are projected to be averted by 2054. With additional policies consistent with MPOWER goals, the model projects that, by 2054, smoking prevalence can be further reduced by 17 % with 80,000 deaths averted relative to the absence of those policies. Michigan SimSmoke shows that tobacco control policies, including cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, and cessation treatment policies, have substantially reduced smoking and SADs. Higher taxes, strong mass media campaigns, and cessation treatment policies would further reduce smoking prevalence and SADs.

  6. The Impacts of Internationalization on Quality Assurance Policy: A Comparative Study of Finland and Taiwan

    OpenAIRE

    LIU, PO-YUN

    2008-01-01

    Internationalization and quality assurance have become the central considerations of higher education development currently. The aim of this research is to explore and compare the impacts of internationalization on quality assurance policy in Finland and Taiwan. To achieve this aim, the general impacts of internationalization on quality assurance policy have been discussed first. Next, the empirical research of Finland and Taiwan are conducted by qualitative interviews of higher education pol...

  7. Impact of stakeholders' interests on financial accounting policy-making : the case of Lithuania

    OpenAIRE

    Rudžionienė, Kristina

    2006-01-01

    This paper analyses the expectations of particular stakeholder groups’ impact on corporate financial accounting policy-making in Lithuanian enterprises from Stakeholder theory perspective. Companies should seek to present a true and fair view of their financial performance and results while making financial accounting policy because stakeholders need informative and truthful accounting data for making right decisions. On the basis of empirical results it could be stated that the impact of dif...

  8. Impact of policy game on insight and attitude to inter sectoral policy processes - EU country cases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lau, C.; Glümer, Charlotte; Spitters, Hilde

    of the collaboration process in NL (100%). The fraction of participants who enhanced their insight to leadership aspects of their network varied across aspects of leadership and across countries, from 14% in NL to 86% in RO. The fraction of participants being more positive towards use of knowledge varied across...... collaboration and use of knowledge. Differences between countries may be a result of diversity in potential for change in game participant groups and game processes. Key message: The policy game encountered changes at the domains ‘organization network’, ‘collaboration’, ‘leadership’ and ‘use of knowledge...... change insight and attitude towards inter sectoral policy processes, such as the organization network, collaboration, and use of knowledge in HEPA policy making in three European countries. Methods The Netherlands (NL), Denmark (DK) and Romania (RO), partners in the REPOPA program, have carried out...

  9. Clinical review: impact of statin substitution policies on patient outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Atar, Dan; Carmena, Rafael; Clemmensen, Peter; K-Laflamme, Annik; Wassmann, Sven; Lansberg, Peter; Hobbs, Richard

    2009-01-01

    The increasing awareness of cost issues in health care has led to the increasing use of policy-driven substitution of branded for generic medications, particularly relative to statin treatment for cardiovascular diseases. While there are potential short-term health care savings, the consequences for

  10. Clinical review: impact of statin substitution policies on patient outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Atar, Dan; Carmena, Rafael; Clemmensen, Peter

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The increasing awareness of cost issues in health care has led to the increasing use of policy-driven substitution of branded for generic medications, particularly relative to statin treatment for cardiovascular diseases. While there are potential short-term health care savings...

  11. The Impact of State Abortion Policies on Teen Pregnancy Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medoff, Marshall

    2010-01-01

    The availability of abortion provides insurance against unwanted pregnancies since abortion is the only birth control method which allows women to avoid an unwanted birth once they are pregnant. Restrictive state abortion policies, which increase the cost of obtaining an abortion, may increase women's incentive to alter their pregnancy avoidance…

  12. Policy Trends Impacting Community Colleges: An ECS Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sponsler, Brian A.; Pingel, Sarah; Anderson, Lexi

    2015-01-01

    Given the importance of community and technical colleges to state education attainment and workforce development goals, policy addressing the two-year sector is of critical importance to state policymakers. Analysis of legislative issue trends suggests transfer and articulation, performance-based funding, and financial aid programs are substantial…

  13. Policies for reduced deforestation and their impact on agricultural production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelsen, Arild

    2010-11-16

    Policies to effectively reduce deforestation are discussed within a land rent (von Thünen) framework. The first set of policies attempts to reduce the rent of extensive agriculture, either by neglecting extension, marketing, and infrastructure, generating alternative income opportunities, stimulating intensive agricultural production or by reforming land tenure. The second set aims to increase either extractive or protective forest rent and--more importantly--create institutions (community forest management) or markets (payment for environmental services) that enable land users to capture a larger share of the protective forest rent. The third set aims to limit forest conversion directly by establishing protected areas. Many of these policy options present local win-lose scenarios between forest conservation and agricultural production. Local yield increases tend to stimulate agricultural encroachment, contrary to the logic of the global food equation that suggests yield increases take pressure off forests. At national and global scales, however, policy makers are presented with a more pleasant scenario. Agricultural production in developing countries has increased by 3.3-3.4% annually over the last 2 decades, whereas gross deforestation has increased agricultural area by only 0.3%, suggesting a minor role of forest conversion in overall agricultural production. A spatial delinking of remaining forests and intensive production areas should also help reconcile conservation and production goals in the future.

  14. How do we define the policy impact of public health research? A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alla, Kristel; Hall, Wayne D; Whiteford, Harvey A; Head, Brian W; Meurk, Carla S

    2017-10-02

    In order to understand and measure the policy impact of research we need a definition of research impact that is suited to the task. This article systematically reviewed both peer-reviewed and grey literature for definitions of research impact to develop a definition of research impact that can be used to investigate how public health research influences policy. Keyword searches of the electronic databases Web of Science, ProQuest, PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, Informit, PsycINFO, The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and Google Scholar were conducted between August 2015 and April 2016. Keywords included 'definition' and 'policy' and 'research impact' or 'research evidence'. The search terms 'health', public health' or 'mental health' and 'knowledge transfer' or 'research translation' were used to focus the search on relevant health discipline approaches. Studies included in the review described processes, theories or frameworks associated with public health, health services or mental health policy. We identified 108 definitions in 83 publications. The key findings were that literature on research impact is growing, but only 23% of peer-reviewed publications on the topic explicitly defined the term and that the majority (76%) of definitions were derived from research organisations and funding institutions. We identified four main types of definition, namely (1) definitions that conceptualise research impacts in terms of positive changes or effects that evidence can bring about when transferred into policies (example Research Excellence Framework definition), (2) definitions that interpret research impacts as measurable outcomes (Research Councils UK), and (3) bibliometric and (4) use-based definitions. We identified four constructs underpinning these definitions that related to concepts of contribution, change, avenues and levels of impact. The dominance of bureaucratic definitions, the tendency to discuss but not define the concept of research impact, and the

  15. Why Have Tobacco Control Policies Stalled? Using Genetic Moderation to Examine Policy Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Jason M.

    2012-01-01

    Background Research has shown that tobacco control policies have helped produce the dramatic decline in use over the decades following the 1964 surgeon general’s report. However, prevalence rates have stagnated during the past two decades in the US, even with large tobacco taxes and expansions of clean air laws. The observed differences in tobacco control policy effectiveness and why policies do not help all smokers are largely unexplained. Objective The aim of this study was to determine the importance of genetics in explaining response to tobacco taxation policy by testing the potential of gene-policy interaction in determining adult tobacco use. Methods A moderated regression analysis framework was used to test interactive effects between genotype and tobacco policy in predicting tobacco use. Cross sectional data of US adults from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) linked with genotype and geocodes were used to identify tobacco use phenotypes, state-level taxation rates, and variation in the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor (CHRNA6) genotype. Tobacco use phenotypes included current use, number of cigarettes smoked per day, and blood serum cotinine measurements. Results Variation in the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor was found to moderate the influence of tobacco taxation on multiple measures of tobacco use. Individuals with the protective G/G polymorphism (51% of the sample) responded to taxation while others had no response. The estimated differences in response by genotype were C/C genotype: b = −0.016 se  = 0.018; G/C genotype: b = 0.014 se  = 0.017; G/G genotype: b = −0.071 se 0.029. Conclusions This study provides novel evidence of “gene-policy” interaction and suggests a genetic mechanism for the large differences in response to tobacco policies. The inability for these policies to reduce use for individuals with specific genotypes suggests alternative methods may be needed to further reduce use

  16. Climate: Policy, Modeling, and Federal Priorities (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koonin, S.; Department Of Energy Office Of The Under SecretaryScience

    2010-12-01

    The Administration has set ambitious national goals to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The US and other countries involved in the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change continue to work toward a goal of establishing a viable treaty that would encompass limits on emissions and codify actions that nations would take to reduce emissions. These negotiations are informed by the science of climate change and by our understanding of how changes in technology and the economy might affect the overall climate in the future. I will describe the present efforts within the U.S. Department of Energy, and the federal government more generally, to address issues related to climate change. These include state-of-the-art climate modeling and uncertainty assessment, economic and climate scenario planning based on best estimates of different technology trajectories, adaption strategies for climate change, and monitoring and reporting for treaty verification.

  17. THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON COMPETITION POLICY EFFECTIVENESS WITHIN EUROPEAN UNION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragoi Ionut

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, more and more countries have enacted competition laws, understanding the importance of this process in providing a normal functioning of the economy. Analyzing competition policy effectiveness is important not only because of the recent extent of the phenomenon, but also because of the impact of competition policy effectiveness on economic development and, in the current economic climate, on the economic recovery process. For this reason, quantitative evaluation for competition policy effectiveness became very useful as data handling and understanding the whole phenomenon are easier this way and an international perspective is provided. This was made possible by various international institutions that have created a system of aggregated indicators for the evaluation of competition law enforcement and competition advocacy (perceived effectiveness. The purpose of our research is to identify the macroeconomic factors that influence the effectiveness of competition law implementation within the European Union Member States. We have tasted the influence of 13 macroeconomic, using panel data methodology and data from the last four years. We obtained ß coefficients statistically significant only for 11 of them. The results are consistent with prior analyzed studies and economic logic: positive influence from market division, intensity of local competition, ethical behavior of firms, strength of auditing and reporting standards, efficiency of legal framework in settling disputes, protection of minority shareholders’ interests, public trust of politicians, economic dimension and market size and negative influence from corruption level and diversion of public funds. Based on the achieved results we can perform an analysis of principal components leading to causal space reduction with minimal information loss and without informational redundancy, creating the premises for building a model that explains competition policy

  18. Global impacts of U.S. bioenergy production and policy: A general equilibrium perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Samuel Garner

    The conversion of biomass to energy represents a promising pathway forward in efforts to reduce fossil fuel use in the transportation and electricity sectors. In addition to potential benefits, such as greenhouse gas reductions and increased energy security, bioenergy production also presents a unique set of challenges. These challenges include tradeoffs between food and fuel production, distortions in energy markets, and terrestrial emissions associated with changing land-use patterns. Each of these challenges arises from market-mediated responses to bioenergy production, and are therefore largely economic in nature. This dissertation directly addresses these opportunities and challenges by evaluating the economic impacts of U.S. bioenergy production and policy, focusing on both existing and future biomass-to-energy pathways. The analysis approaches the issue from a global, economy-wide perspective, reflecting two important facts. First, that large-scale bioenergy production connects multiple sectors of the economy due to the use of agricultural land resources for biomass production, and competition with fossil fuels in energy markets. Second, markets for both agricultural and energy commodities are highly integrated globally, causing domestic policies to have international effects. The reader can think of this work as being comprised of three parts. Part I provides context through an extensive review of the literature on the market-mediated effects of conventional biofuel production (Chapter 2) and develops a general equilibrium modeling framework for assessing the extent to which these phenomenon present a challenge for future bioenergy pathways (Chapter 3). Part II (Chapter 4) explores the economic impacts of the lignocellulosic biofuel production targets set in the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard on global agricultural and energy commodity markets. Part III (Chapter 5) extends the analysis to consider potential inefficiencies associated with policy

  19. The Impact of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy on Investor Sentiment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lutz, Chandler

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy and investor sentiment across conventional and unconventional monetary policy regimes. During conventional times, we find that a surprise decrease in the fed funds rate leads to a large increase in investor sentiment. Similarly, when...... the fed funds rate is at its zero lower bound, research results indicate that expansionary unconventional monetary policy shocks also have a large and positive impact on investor mood. Together, our findings highlight the importance of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy...... in the determination of investor sentiment....

  20. Impacts of imports, government policy and technology on future natural gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allison, E.

    2009-01-01

    This presentation discussed the impacts of imports, government policy and technology on future natural gas supply. Specifically, it discussed projections of natural gas supply and demand; the potential impact of imports on United States natural gas supply; the potential impacts of government policy on natural gas supply and demand; and the impact of technological innovations on natural gas supply such as coalbed methane and methane hydrate. Specific government policies that were examined included the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009; the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009; and the Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act of 2009. It was concluded that the United States demand for natural gas will expand and that the impact of pending clean energy legislation is unclear. In addition, each potential future resource will face constraints and new resources may come on line in the next 20 years. figs.

  1. Production functions for climate policy modeling. An empirical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Werf, Edwin

    2008-01-01

    Quantitative models for climate policy modeling differ in the production structure used and in the sizes of the elasticities of substitution. The empirical foundation for both is generally lacking. This paper estimates the parameters of 2-level CES production functions with capital, labour and energy as inputs, and is the first to systematically compare all nesting structures. Using industry-level data from 12 OECD countries, we find that the nesting structure where capital and labour are combined first, fits the data best, but for most countries and industries we cannot reject that all three inputs can be put into one single nest. These two nesting structures are used by most climate models. However, while several climate policy models use a Cobb-Douglas function for (part of the) production function, we reject elasticities equal to one, in favour of considerably smaller values. Finally we find evidence for factor-specific technological change. With lower elasticities and with factor-specific technological change, some climate policy models may find a bigger effect of endogenous technological change on mitigating the costs of climate policy. (author)

  2. Public policy for children in Brazil – the process of implementation of a new model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Stumpf González

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Recently happened the 25th anniversary of the approval of the Child and Adolescent Statute. Which goals are achieved? What changed? This work analyses the Brazilian case in implementation of a new paradigm of children rights and his impact in the definition of aconcrete agenda of public policies, doing an evaluation of the new model and the changes, with focus of the development of a agenda of policies in four subjects: creation of councils, attention for the young lawbreakers, exploitation of child labour and sexual violence against children. At the end are discussed motivation for partial success in implementation of the agenda and responsibilities of the institutional actors involved.

  3. Impacts of Changing Marijuana Policies on Alcohol Use in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guttmannova, Katarina; Lee, Christine M.; Kilmer, Jason R.; Fleming, Charles B.; Rhew, Isaac C.; Kosterman, Rick; Larimer, Mary E.

    2015-01-01

    Background Marijuana policies are rapidly evolving. In the United States, recreational use of marijuana is now legal in four states and medical marijuana is legal in 23 states. Research evaluating such policies has focused primarily on how policies affect issues of price, access to, use, and consequences of marijuana. Due to potential spillover effects, researchers also need to examine how marijuana policies may impact use and consequences of alcohol. Methods The current paper is a critical review of articles evaluating alcohol outcomes associated with marijuana decriminalization, medical marijuana legalization, and non-medical or recreational marijuana legalization. We identified articles and reports through (1) online searches of EBSCO host database including Academic search premier, Econlit, Legal collection, Medline, Psych articles, and PsycINFO, as well as PubMed and Google Scholar databases; (2) review of additional articles cited in papers identified through electronic searches; and (3) targeted searches of state and local government records regarding marijuana law implementation. We reviewed studies with respect to their data sources and sample characteristics, methodology, and the margin of alcohol and marijuana use, timing of policy change, and the aspects of laws examined. Results The extant literature provides some evidence for both substitution (i.e., more liberal marijuana policies related to less alcohol use as marijuana becomes a substitute) and complementary (i.e., more liberal marijuana policies related to increases in both marijuana and alcohol use) relationships in the context of liberalization of marijuana policies in the United States. Conclusions Impact of more liberal marijuana policies on alcohol use is complex, and likely depends on specific aspects of policy implementation, including how long the policy has been in place. Further, evaluation of marijuana policy effects on alcohol use may be sensitive to the age group studied and the

  4. The Politics of Healthy Policies: Redesigning health impact assessment to integrate health in public policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.P.M. Bekker (Marleen)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractPublic health issues, such as obesity, lung disease from air pollution or mental health complaints from living in an unsafe neighbourhood, are complex, intractable policy problems. The causes are dispersed at the individual and the collective level among different societal

  5. Politics, Policies and Practice: Assessing the Impact of Sexual Harassment Policies in UK Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Alison M.

    2004-01-01

    Since sexual harassment was first named and identified as an obstacle to women's equality in the mid 1970s, concern about both its prevalence and its damaging effects has resulted in the widespread introduction of anti-harassment policies in UK universities, as in other work and educational settings. The study reported here sought to assess the…

  6. Modeling policy issues in a world of imperfect competition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dierker, Egbert; Grodal, Birgit

    1998-01-01

    General equilibrium theory constitutes a sound basis for the discussion of policy issues if firms do not have market power. However, if firms influence prices strategically, the concept of profits loses its meaning due to the price normalization problem. Hence, it is unclear how to model the beha......General equilibrium theory constitutes a sound basis for the discussion of policy issues if firms do not have market power. However, if firms influence prices strategically, the concept of profits loses its meaning due to the price normalization problem. Hence, it is unclear how to model...... the behavior of oligopolistic firms. In order to provide a conceptual foundation for the analysis of policy issues in the case of imperfect competition, we discuss ways to formulate the objective of a strategic firm. In particular, we investigate the concept of real wealth maximization that is based on profits...

  7. Social Impact Management Plans : Innovation in corporate and public policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Franks, Daniel M.; Vanclay, Frank

    Social Impact Assessment (SIA) has traditionally been practiced as a predictive study for the regulatory approval of major projects, however, in recent years the drivers and domain of focus for SIA have shifted. This paper details the emergence of Social Impact Management Plans (SIMPs) and

  8. Social Impact Management Plans : Innovation in corporate and public policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Franks, Daniel M.; Vanclay, Frank

    2013-01-01

    Social Impact Assessment (SIA) has traditionally been practiced as a predictive study for the regulatory approval of major projects, however, in recent years the drivers and domain of focus for SIA have shifted. This paper details the emergence of Social Impact Management Plans (SIMPs) and

  9. Impact of Fishery Policy on Fishery Manufacture Output, Economy and Welfare in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firmansyah; Oktavilia, Shanty; Sugiyanto, F. X.; Hamzah, Ibnu N.

    2018-02-01

    The fisheries sector and fish manufacturing industry are the bright prospect sectors of Indonesia, due to its huge potency, which has not been worked out optimally. In facts, these sectors can generate a large amount of foreign exchange. The Government has paid significant attention to the development of these sectors. This study simulates the impact of fishery policies on the production of fish manufacturing industry, national economic and welfare in Indonesia. By employing the Input-Output Analysis approach, impacts of various government policy scenarios are developed, covering fisheries technical policy, as well as infrastructure development policies in the fisheries sector. This study indicates that the policies in the fisheries sector increase the output of fishery, the production of fish manufacturing industry, the sectoral and national outputs, as well as the level of national income.

  10. The impact of luxury brand identity on product pricing policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wioleta Dryl

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Basing the luxury product pricing policy, only on the assumption that the price has to be the highest amount a client is willing to pay, poses a number of challenges in front of enterprise. The consumer of the luxury product is very aware of his needs and expectations. He is ready to pay a higher price for the product, but is expecting to return, very specific values. Relying luxury brand strategy, only on high-priced, without enrichment offer to a sufficiently high level leads to market failure. The justification for the high price of the product may, however, be defined brand image, which is a consequence of appropriate policies shaping its identity. In the case of luxury goods, especially essential tool proves to be the emotional component of the brand identity.

  11. The Distributional Impact of Social Security Policy Options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couch, Kenneth A; Reznik, Gayle L; Tamborini, Christopher R; Iams, Howard M

    2017-01-01

    Using microsimulation, we estimate the effects of three policy proposals that would alter Social Security's eligibility rules or benefit structure to reflect changes in women's labor force activity, marital patterns, and differential mortality among the aged. First, we estimate a set of options related to the duration of marriage required to receive divorced spouse and survivor benefits. Second, we estimate the effects of an earnings sharing proposal with survivor benefits, in which benefits are based entirely on earned benefits with spouses sharing their earnings during years of marriage. Third, we estimate the effects of adjusting benefits to reflect the increasing differential life expectancy by lifetime earnings. The results advance our understanding of the distributional effects of these alternative policy options on projected benefits and retirement income, including poverty and supplemental poverty status, of divorced and widowed women aged 60 or older in 2030.

  12. Impacts of Policies on Poverty. Relative Poverty Lines

    OpenAIRE

    Bellù, Lorenzo Giovanni; Liberati, Paolo

    2005-01-01

    This module illustrates how to define “relative” poverty lines, i.e. poverty lines based on approaches that consider the welfare position of each individual or household in relation to the welfare position of other individuals or households belonging to the same community. In particular, the module, after emphasizing the importance of the relative poverty concept in policy work, discusses two methods to define relative poverty lines: a) the “income levels” method; and b) the “income positions...

  13. China's Quest for Energy; Impact upon Foreign and Security Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiesow, Ingolf

    2004-11-01

    Contrary to Chinese intentions, the proportion of China's imports coming from potentially unstable countries is steadily increasing. As a response, China tries to diversify its sources of import and to own the oil when loaded in an export harbour. In spite of very high costs and political problems, China tries to import oil and gas from owned fields in Central Asia through pipelines. In the case of China, the competition is evident on the highest international level. Especially with Japan, this tends to make already previously sensitive relations deteriorate. China has territorial disputes with several neighbouring countries that are becoming more complicated by the fact that there is oil and gas on the bottom of the sea in the disputed area. Relations with Russia have been complicated. Since the 1990s they are on their way of being steadily improved, but they become strained, when Japan is given priority access to oil fields in Siberia. The sensitive relations with the U.S. tend to be impaired by China's ways of getting access to more secure supply of oil and gas. Chinese efforts to get a more attractive foreign policy profile is on the other hand alleviating but does not eliminate the potential of the energy issue to complicate. China's foreign and security policy relations. The European Union seems to be on its way to introduce energy questions as a field of common policy. This is a reason for Sweden to study the development. It is a matter of special interest that China has proposed an 'Energy Dialogue between Asia and Europe' about the resources and the Eurasian continent. The Chinese example illustrates the need for a Swedish energy security policy and plans for energy crisis preparedness

  14. DEVOLUTION IN ITALIAN CULTURAL POLICIES MICRO VIEW AND ACTUAL IMPACTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Monti

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available

    Devolution has definitely become a ‘flagship’ in the Italian political debate. It has affected any aspect of public policy over the last 17 years and the cultural sector has not been spared. Its key aim is to decentralise legal and administration powers in a way that could reduce the burden of State offices work and set up a more efficient and effective administration able to meet citizens’ needs. After a long tradition of centralized policies and administration, long, costly and often in efficient procedures required a profound change. The reforms were so ledby the ideal to implement public policies closest to citizens’ needs, to provide direct responses and increase their participation to local governments’ actions (democratization and participative policy, to deliver more effective services (better performance and distribute more equally the burden of administrative work of State offices (decentralisation of day-to-day administration.

     

    La Devolution e la politica culturale italiana

    La Devolution riveste un punto centrale nel dibattito politico italiano: ha riguardato ogni aspetto della politica pubblica negli ultimi 17 anni, e il settore culturale non ne è stato risparmiato. L'obbiettivo principale è quello di decentralizzare i poteri giuridici e amministrativi in modo da ridurre il peso del lavoro degli uffici pubblici statali, e di organizzare un'amministrazione più efficiente ed efficace in grado di soddisfare le necessità dei cittadini. Dopo una lunga tradizione basata su politica e amministrazione centralizzate, procedure lunghe, costose e spesso inefficienti richiedevano un profondo cambiamento. Le riforme sono state quindi indirizzate all'implemento di politiche pubbliche più vicine ai cittadini, a incrementare la loro partecipazione nelle azioni di governo locali (politica di democratizzazione e partecipativa, a fornire servizi più efficienti (migliori prestazioni e a distribuire

  15. Equity impacts of price policies to promote healthy behaviours.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sassi, Franco; Belloni, Annalisa; Mirelman, Andrew J; Suhrcke, Marc; Thomas, Alastair; Salti, Nisreen; Vellakkal, Sukumar; Visaruthvong, Chonlathan; Popkin, Barry M; Nugent, Rachel

    2018-04-04

    Governments can use fiscal policies to regulate the prices and consumption of potentially unhealthy products. However, policies aimed at reducing consumption by increasing prices, for example by taxation, might impose an unfair financial burden on low-income households. We used data from household expenditure surveys to estimate patterns of expenditure on potentially unhealthy products by socioeconomic status, with a primary focus on low-income and middle-income countries. Price policies affect the consumption and expenditure of a larger number of high-income households than low-income households, and any resulting price increases tend to be financed disproportionately by high-income households. As a share of all household consumption, however, price increases are often a larger financial burden for low-income households than for high-income households, most consistently in the case of tobacco, depending on how much consumption decreases in response to increased prices. Large health benefits often accrue to individual low-income consumers because of their strong response to price changes. The potentially larger financial burden on low-income households created by taxation could be mitigated by a pro-poor use of the generated tax revenues. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY - INTERESTS VECTORS AND ECONOMIC IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ANDREEA – EMANUELA DRǍGOI

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In recent decades, Russia's foreign policy was shaped by both a number of internal factors (government strategy, political elites, culture, economics and demography and external ones (international treaties, changes in the structure of the international power balance. In the post-soviet era Russian foreign policy was radically different from that of other major economic powers. One of the factors that influenced decisively Russia’s external strategies was the collapse of the USSR as a superpower (phenomenon described by the president Vladimir Putin as "the most powerful geo-political catastrophe of the XXst century". The shift from the former communist regime (a totalitarian one to an authoritarian oligarchy (the current regime was followed by the transition to a market economy, a phenomenon that coincided with Russia’s military and political diminished influence in the international arena. Our research aims to assess the main interest vectors that shaped Russian Foreign Policy considering the main events that constitute milestones: Russia’s emerging as a great energy power, the Crimean crisis and Western international economic sanctions that followed. Our paper will base the main assumption on a joint analysis both qualitative and quantitative, using main international economic indicators (GDP, FDI flows, trade flows, general government balance and general gross debt and the most relevant approaches in the literature in the field.

  17. A multiple perspective modeling and simulation approach for renewable energy policy evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alyamani, Talal M.

    Environmental issues and reliance on fossil fuel sources, including coal, oil, and natural gas, are the two most common energy issues that are currently faced by the United States (U.S.). Incorporation of renewable energy sources, a non-economical option in electricity generation compared to conventional sources that burn fossil fuels, single handedly promises a viable solution for both of these issues. Several energy policies have concordantly been suggested to reduce the financial burden of adopting renewable energy technologies and make such technologies competitive with conventional sources throughout the U.S. This study presents a modeling and analysis approach for comprehensive evaluation of renewable energy policies with respect to their benefits to various related stakeholders--customers, utilities, governmental and environmental agencies--where the debilitating impacts, advantages, and disadvantages of such policies can be assessed and quantified at the state level. In this work, a novel simulation framework is presented to help policymakers promptly assess and evaluate policies from different perspectives of its stakeholders. The proposed framework is composed of four modules: 1) a database that collates the economic, operational, and environmental data; 2) elucidation of policy, which devises the policy for the simulation model; 3) a preliminary analysis, which makes predictions for consumption, supply, and prices; and 4) a simulation model. After the validity of the proposed framework is demonstrated, a series of planned Florida and Texas renewable energy policies are implemented into the presented framework as case studies. Two solar and one energy efficiency programs are selected as part of the Florida case study. A utility rebate and federal tax credit programs are selected as part of the Texas case study. The results obtained from the simulation and conclusions drawn on the assessment of current energy policies are presented with respect to the

  18. Reducing US cardiovascular disease burden and disparities through national and targeted dietary policies: A modelling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Large socio-economic disparities exist in US dietary habits and cardiovascular disease (CVD mortality. While economic incentives have demonstrated success in improving dietary choices, the quantitative impact of different dietary policies on CVD disparities is not well established. We aimed to quantify and compare the potential effects on total CVD mortality and disparities of specific dietary policies to increase fruit and vegetable (F&V consumption and reduce sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB consumption in the US.Using the US IMPACT Food Policy Model and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, we estimated and compared the reductions in CVD mortality and socio-economic disparities in the US population potentially achievable from 2015 to 2030 with specific dietary policy scenarios: (a a national mass media campaign (MMC aimed to increase consumption of F&Vs and reduce consumption of SSBs, (b a national fiscal policy to tax SSBs to increase prices by 10%, (c a national fiscal policy to subsidise F&Vs to reduce prices by 10%, and (d a targeted policy to subsidise F&Vs to reduce prices by 30% among Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP participants only. We also evaluated a combined policy approach, combining all of the above policies. Data sources included the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, National Vital Statistics System, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, and published meta-analyses. Among the individual policy scenarios, a national 10% F&V subsidy was projected to be most beneficial, potentially resulting in approximately 150,500 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 141,400-158,500 CVD deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs by 2030 in the US. This far exceeds the approximately 35,100 (95% UI 31,700-37,500 DPPs potentially attributable to a 30% F&V subsidy targeting SNAP participants, the approximately 25,800 (95% UI 24,300-28,500 DPPs for a 1-y MMC, or the approximately 31,000 (95% UI 26,800-35,300 DPPs for a 10

  19. An applied general equilibrium model for Dutch agribusiness policy analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peerlings, J.

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis was to develop a basic static applied general equilibrium (AGE) model to analyse the effects of agricultural policy changes on Dutch agribusiness. In particular the effects on inter-industry transactions, factor demand, income, and trade are of

  20. Model-Driven Policy Framework for Data Centers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caba, Cosmin Marius; Kentis, Angelos Mimidis; Soler, José

    2016-01-01

    . Moreover, the lack of simple solutions for managing the configuration and behavior of the DC components makes the DC hard to configure and slow in adapting to changes in business needs. In this paper, we propose a model-driven framework for policy-based management for DCs, to simplify not only the service...

  1. Mapping and modelling ecosystem services for science, policy and practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burkhard, B.; Crossman, N.; Nedkov, S.; Petz, K.; Alkemade, R.

    2013-01-01

    Ecosystem services are a significant research and policy topic and there are many modelling and mapping approaches aimed at understanding the stocks, demands and flows of ecosystem services on different spatial and temporal scales. The integration of geo-biophysical processes and structure

  2. Quantification model of the consequences of monetary policy shocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Emilia POPA

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The monetary analysis based on the BVAR (Bayesian Vector Autoregression model is extremely important in the monetary policy implementation strategy, the information provided is important not only for the Central Bank, but also for the economic agents and the population. Therefore, conducting this analysis at the level of Romania helps to understand better the mechanism by which monetary policy is transmitted in order to achieve the set target, namely inflation targeting, but it also provides us with important information regarding the accession to the euro area. The model we are trying to test helps us understand through the correlations between the interest rate, GDP and the inflation rate how monetary policy responds to shocks. The model follows the methodology presented by Sims and Zha (1998 in the paper "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models and Using the Bayesian Autoregressive Vector". In the analysis of this model, quarterly data for a minimum of three years, three variables are used to make the results relevant. The data needed to model the model are used in logarithmic form, except for the interest rate, and the outcome is applied to a differentiated premium operator. Of the variables used, the interest rate is the only one that does not allow seasonal adjustment.

  3. Modeling Freight Ocean Rail and Truck Transportation Flows to Support Policy Analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gearhart, Jared Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wang, Hao [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States); Nozick, Linda Karen [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States); Xu, Ningxiong [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Freight transportation represents about 9.5% of GDP, is responsible for about 8% of greenhouse gas emissions and supports the import and export of about 3.6 trillion in international trade; hence it is important that our national freight transportation system is designed and operated efficiently and embodies user fees and other policies that balance costs and environmental consequences. Hence, this paper develops a mathematical model to estimate international and domestic freight flows across ocean, rail and truck modes which can be used to study the impacts of changes in our infrastructure as well as the imposition of new user fees and changes in operating policies. This model is applied to two case studies: (1) a disruption of the maritime ports at Los Angeles/Long Beach similar to the impacts that would be felt in an earthquake; and (2) implementation of new user fees at the California ports.

  4. Modelling climate change under no-policy and policy emissions pathways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wigley, T.M.L.

    2003-01-01

    Future emissions under the SRES scenarios are described as examples of no-climate-policy scenarios. The production of policy scenarios is guided by Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which requires stabilization of greenhouse-gas concentrations. It is suggested that the choice of stabilization targets should be governed by the need to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system, while the choice of the pathway towards a given target should be determined by some form of cost-benefit analysis. The WRE (Wigley, Richels and Edmonds) concentration profiles are given as examples of stabilization pathways, and an alternative 'overshoot' pathway is introduced. Probabilistic projections (as probability density functions - pdfs) for global-mean temperature under the SRES scenarios are given. The relative importance of different sources of uncertainty is determined by removing individual sources of uncertainty and examining the change in the output temperature pdf. Emissions and climate sensitivity uncertainties dominate, while carbon cycle, aerosol forcing and ocean mixing uncertainties are shown to be small. It is shown that large uncertainties remain even if the emissions are prescribed. Uncertainties in regional climate change are defined by comparing normalized changes (i.e., changes per 1C global-mean warming) across multiple models and using the inter-model standard deviation as an uncertainty metric. Global-mean temperature projections for the policy case are given using the WRE profiles. Different stabilization targets are considered, and the overshoot case for 550ppm stabilization is used to quantify the effects of pathway differences. It is shown that large emissions reductions (from the no-policy to the policy case) will lead to only relatively small reductions in warming over the next 100 years

  5. Ex-Ante Impact Assessment & Value Network Analysis for SI: SIMPACT Policy Brief 1

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dhondt, S.; Ven, H. van de; Cressey, P.; Kaderabkova, A.; Luna, Á.; Moghadam Saman, S.; Castro Spila, J.; Terstriep, J.

    2016-01-01

    In this Policy Brief, a conceptual framework is presented to conduct an ex-ante impact assessment for social innovation. The building blocks for an ex-ante impact assessment are goal formulation; developing the relationships between inputs, outputs and outcomes; determining the role of stakeholders

  6. The credit crunch : Impacts on the housing market and policy responses in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Priemus, H.

    2009-01-01

    This contribution deals with the impact of the credit crunch on the Dutch housing market and the policy responses of the Dutch government so far. Reinhart and Rogoff have presented an overview of credit crises after WW II: what are the general characteristics and impacts? Also in the Netherlands,

  7. Impact of California air quality control policies on the use and demand for natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyd, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses the impact of California's air quality control policies on the use of natural gas. In this paper the author would like to briefly review the regulatory structure for air pollution control in California, summarize the requirement of the California Clean Air Act of 1988, and discuss the impacts of our regulatory programs on the use and demand for natural gas

  8. Education Policy and "Friedmanomics": Free Market Ideology and Its Impact on School Reform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiala, Thomas J.; Owens, Deborah Duncan

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of neoliberal ideology, and in particular, the economic and social theories of Milton Friedman on education policy. The paper takes a critical theoretical approach in that ultimately the paper is an ideological critique of conservative thought and action that impacts twenty-first century education…

  9. The policy-relevancy of impact assessment tools: Evaluating nine years of European research funding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Podhora, A.; Helming, K.; Adenauer, L.; Heckelei, T.; Kautto, P.; Reidsma, P.; Rennings, K.; Turnpenny, J.; Jansen, J.M.L.

    2013-01-01

    Since 2002, the European Commission has employed the instrument of ex-ante impact assessments (IA) to help focus its policy-making process on implementing sustainable development. Scientific tools should play an essential role of providing the evidence base to assess the impacts of alternative

  10. Use and Impacts of Campbell Systematic Reviews on Policy, Practice, and Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, Brandy R.; Dell, Nathaniel A.

    2018-01-01

    Aim: This study examines use and impacts of systematic reviews produced by the Campbell Collaboration's Social Welfare Coordinating Group (SWCG) on practice, policy, and research. Methods: A mixed-method research design was used to examine impacts of 52 systematic reviews published by the SWCG. We conducted author surveys and retrieved multiple…

  11. Seeds of confusion : the impact of policies on seed systems

    OpenAIRE

    Louwaars, N.P.

    2007-01-01

    Seed is basic to crop production. Next to its importance in production, food security and rural development, seed is a key element in many debates about technology development and transfer, biodiversity, globalisation and equity. The sustainable availability of good quality seed is thus an important development issue. This study deals with the impact different types of regulation have on how farmers access seed. I have analysed current regulatory frameworks in terms of their impact on differe...

  12. The uneven impact of the European Employment Strategy on member states' employment policies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Mikkel Mailand

    2008-01-01

    policies to varying degrees, but that the impact, generally speaking, has been limited. In the article, the author examines the impact of the strategy as a result of peer pressure and key actors' strategic use of the strategy and shows how these mechanisms work. Factors that can explain why greater impact......In the mid-1990s, EU member states decided to coordinate their national employment policies through a common European Employment Strategy (EES). Building on a systematic comparative study of four member states, the author argues that the strategy has influenced the member states' employment...

  13. A Computable OLG Model for Gender and Growth Policy Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Pierre-Richard Agénor

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops a computable Overlapping Generations (OLG) model for gender and growth policy analysis. The model accounts for human and physical capital accumulation (both public and private), intra- and inter-generational health persistence, fertility choices, and women's time allocation between market work, child rearing, and home production. Bargaining between spouses and gender bias, in the form of discrimination in the work place and mothers' time allocation between daughters and so...

  14. MODELING MONETARY POLICY RULES IN THE MENACOUNTRIES: ISSUES AND EVIDENCE

    OpenAIRE

    Mohamad Husam Helmi

    2011-01-01

    This paper estimates the monetary policy reaction function for two sets of MENAcountries: The inflation target countries, (Turkeyand Israel) and the exchange ratetarget countries, (Jordan and Morocco). We motivateour empirical analysis byanalyzing a simple Taylor rule. This model looks atthe effects of inflation andoutput on setting the interest rate by the centralbank. Furthermore, we extendedour model by adding the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate ...

  15. Business model elements impacting cloud computing adoption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bogataj, Kristina; Pucihar, Andreja; Sudzina, Frantisek

    The paper presents a proposed research framework for identification of business model elements impacting Cloud Computing Adoption. We provide a definition of main Cloud Computing characteristics, discuss previous findings on factors impacting Cloud Computing Adoption, and investigate technology a...

  16. Advancing LGBT Elder Policy and Support Services: The Massachusetts Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krinsky, Lisa; Cahill, Sean R

    2017-12-01

    The Massachusetts-based LGBT Aging Project has trained elder service providers in affirming and culturally competent care for LGBT older adults, supported development of LGBT-friendly meal programs, and advanced LGBT equality under aging policy. Working across sectors, this innovative model launched the country's first statewide Legislative Commission on Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Aging. Advocates are working with policymakers to implement key recommendations, including cultural competency training and data collection in statewide networks of elder services. The LGBT Aging Project's success provides a template for improving services and policy for LGBT older adults throughout the country.

  17. Replenishment policy for an inventory model under inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Vikramjeet; Saxena, Seema; Singh, Pushpinder; Mishra, Nitin Kumar

    2017-07-01

    The purpose of replenishment is to keep the flow of inventory in the system. To determine an optimal replenishment policy is a great challenge in developing an inventory model. Inflation is defined as the rate at which the prices of goods and services are rising over a time period. The cost parameters are affected by the rate of inflation. High rate of inflation affects the organizations financial conditions. Based on the above backdrop the present paper proposes the retailers replenishment policy for deteriorating items with different cycle lengths under inflation. The shortages are partially backlogged. At last numerical examples validate the results.

  18. Modeling water scarcity and droughts for policy adaptation to climate change in arid and semiarid regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahil, Mohamed Taher; Dinar, Ariel; Albiac, Jose

    2015-03-01

    Growing water extractions combined with emerging demands for environment protection increase competition for scarce water resources worldwide, especially in arid and semiarid regions. In those regions, climate change is projected to exacerbate water scarcity and increase the recurrence and intensity of droughts. These circumstances call for methodologies that can support the design of sustainable water management. This paper presents a hydro-economic model that links a reduced form hydrological component, with economic and environmental components. The model is applied to an arid and semiarid basin in Southeastern Spain to analyze the effects of droughts and to assess alternative adaptation policies. Results indicate that drought events have large impacts on social welfare, with the main adjustments sustained by irrigation and the environment. The water market policy seems to be a suitable option to overcome the negative economic effects of droughts, although the environmental effects may weaken its advantages for society. The environmental water market policy, where water is acquired for the environment, is an appealing policy to reap the private benefits of markets while protecting ecosystems. The current water management approach in Spain, based on stakeholders' cooperation, achieves almost the same economic outcomes and better environmental outcomes compared to a pure water market. These findings call for a reconsideration of the current management in arid and semiarid basins around the world. The paper illustrates the potential of hydro-economic modeling for integrating the multiple dimensions of water resources, becoming a valuable tool in the advancement of sustainable water management policies.

  19. Dynamic formulation of a top-down and bottom-up merging energy policy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frei, Christoph W.; Haldi, P.-A.; Sarlos, G.Gerard

    2003-01-01

    The impact of energy policy measures is not restricted to the energy system and should therefore be analysed within an economy-wide framework, while keeping the essential details of the energy sector. The aim of this paper is to present new developments in the field of the consistent evaluation of indicators for the sustainability assessment of energy policy measures. Starting from the static concept of Boehringer (Energy Econ. 20 (1998) 233), this paper shows how the complementarity format can be used in computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling for a dynamic formulation of bottom-up and top-down approach merging models. While a hybrid approach increases the credibility of CGE models in energy policy analysis by replacing the energy sector generic functional forms with a bottom-up activity analysis based on specific technologies, the endogenous formulation of investment decisions makes an explicit description of evolving specific capital stocks and technology mixes possible. Both features are essential when assessing effects of policy measures that may be affected by structural change--which is typically the case in the long-term assessment of energy policy measures

  20. Socioeconomic impact indicators relating to water and hydrological policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia Lorca, A.

    2009-01-01

    The work approaches one of the principal problematic ones in order the development of the arid, semiarid and sub humid dry regions, since it is the case of the land management and in I make concrete of that of hydrological management. For it, one presents an offer of design and construction of indicators, from the conceptual perspective of the sustainability, to evaluate the values corresponding to the socioeconomic productivity of the water, in order to motivate the public action in case of the territorial policies in general and sectorial especially. (Author) 4 refs.

  1. Energy market impacts of nuclear power phase-out policies

    OpenAIRE

    Glomsrød, Solveig; Wei, Taoyuan; Mideksa, Torben; Samset, Bjørn Hallvard

    2014-01-01

    This is an accepted manuscript of an article published by Springer Netherlands. The final publication is available at link.springer.com via /https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-014-9558-3 Since the Fukushima disaster in Japan in March 2011, safety concerns have escalated and policies toward nuclear power are being reconsidered in several countries. This article presents a study of the upward pressure on regional electricity prices from nuclear power phase out in four scenarios with various leve...

  2. Impacts on the Common Agricultural Policy and on rural development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grassi, G.; Palz, W.

    1992-01-01

    In the 1980s the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) resulted in large surpluses of main agricultural products; dealing with these surpluses consumed large parts of the Commission's and Member States' budgets. To alleviate this problem, a proposal for alternative land use is presented here: large-scale exploitation of biomass for industrial and energy uses, at the level of 600 to 800 million tonnes of oil equivalent a year. The important benefits to arise from this activity will include: job creation in rural districts, solutions to environmental problems, and technologies applicable in developing countries. (author)

  3. Cleanliness Policy Implementation: Evaluating Retribution Model to Rise Public Satisfaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dailiati, Surya; Hernimawati; Prihati; Chintia Utami, Bunga

    2018-05-01

    This research is based on the principal issues concerning the evaluation of cleanliness retribution policy which has not been optimally be able to improve the Local Revenue of Pekanbaru City and has not improved the cleanliness of Pekanbaru City. It was estimated to be caused by the performance of Garden and Sanitation Department are not in accordance with the requirement of society of Pekanbaru City. The research method used in this study is a mixed method with sequential exploratory strategy. The data collection used are observation, interview and documentation for qualitative research as well as questionnaires for quantitative research. The collected data were analyzed with interactive model of Miles and Huberman for qualitative research and multiple regression analysis for quantitative research. The research result indicated that the model of cleanliness policy implementation that can increase of PAD Pekanbaru City and be able to improve people’s satisfaction divided into two (2) which are the evaluation model and the society satisfaction model. The evaluation model influence by criteria/variable of effectiveness, efficiency, adequacy, equity, responsiveness, and appropriateness, while the society satisfaction model influence by variables of society satisfaction, intentions, goals, plans, programs, and appropriateness of cleanliness retribution collection policy.

  4. Evaluation of the impact of environmental public policy measures on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the French residential sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charlier, Dorothée; Risch, Anna

    2012-01-01

    A cut in energy consumption by 2050 to reach 50 kWh pe /m 2 /year and reduce GHG emissions by 75% are important objectives of environmental policy in France. The residential sector represents a significant potential source of energy savings. In this paper, our main objective is to construct a simulation model and to evaluate the impact of environmental public policy measures. We model energy consumption and GHG emissions, the decision to invest in energy saving renovations and the dynamics of the housing stock. Particular attention is paid to household investment decisions regarding home renovation. To generate the dynamics and the structure of the housing stock through 2050, we introduce socioeconomic variables that alter the number of renovations and new constructions. This study has three major outputs. First, we estimate the energy consumption and GHG emissions of the residential sector in France through 2050. Second, we study the impact of environmental public policy measures. Lastly, we propose different means to reach the objectives. The results show that while current policies are effective, they are not sufficient to reach the objectives. - Highlights: ► We model the decision to invest in energy saving renovations and dynamics of the housing stock. ► We model and estimate the energy consumption and GHG emissions. ► We study the impact of current environmental public policy measures ► We simulate different public policies to reach the French objectives ► Results show that current policies are effective but not sufficient.

  5. Dynamic and adaptive policy models for coalition operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Dinesh; Calo, Seraphin; Chakraborty, Supriyo; Bertino, Elisa; Williams, Chris; Tucker, Jeremy; Rivera, Brian; de Mel, Geeth R.

    2017-05-01

    It is envisioned that the success of future military operations depends on the better integration, organizationally and operationally, among allies, coalition members, inter-agency partners, and so forth. However, this leads to a challenging and complex environment where the heterogeneity and dynamism in the operating environment intertwines with the evolving situational factors that affect the decision-making life cycle of the war fighter. Therefore, the users in such environments need secure, accessible, and resilient information infrastructures where policy-based mechanisms adopt the behaviours of the systems to meet end user goals. By specifying and enforcing a policy based model and framework for operations and security which accommodates heterogeneous coalitions, high levels of agility can be enabled to allow rapid assembly and restructuring of system and information resources. However, current prevalent policy models (e.g., rule based event-condition-action model and its variants) are not sufficient to deal with the highly dynamic and plausibly non-deterministic nature of these environments. Therefore, to address the above challenges, in this paper, we present a new approach for policies which enables managed systems to take more autonomic decisions regarding their operations.

  6. Modeling urban expansion policy scenarios using an agent-based approach for Guangzhou Metropolitan Region of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangjin Tian

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Policy makers and the human decision processes of urban planning have an impact on urban expansion. The behaviors and decision modes of regional authority, real estate developer, resident, and farmer agents and their interactions can be simulated by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP method. The driving factors are regressed with urban dynamics instead of static land-use types. Agents' behaviors and decision modes have an impact on the urban dynamic pattern by adjusting parameter weights. We integrate an agent-based model (ABM with AHP to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Three policy scenarios for baseline development, rapid development, and green land protection have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Guangzhou metropolitan region. A future policy scenario analysis can help policy makers to understand the possible results. These individuals can adjust their policies and decisions according to their different objectives.

  7. Palliative care policy analysis in Iran: A conceptual model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mojgan Ansari

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Palliative care programs are rapidly evolving for patients with life-threatening illnesses. Increased and earlier access for facilities is a subject of growing importance in health services, policy, and research. Aim: This study was conducted to explain stakeholders' perceptions of the factors affecting the design of such a palliative care system and its policy analysis. Methodology: Semi-structured in-depth interviews conducted following purposive sampling of the participants. Twenty-two participants were included in the study. The interviews were analyzed using qualitative-directed content analysis based on "policy analysis triangle" framework. Results: The findings showed the impact of four categories, namely context (political, social, and structural feasibility, content (target setting, process (attracting stakeholder participation, the standardization of care, and education management, and actors (the Ministry of Health and Medical Education, health-care providers, and volunteers in the analysis of the palliative care policies of Iran. Conclusion: In the past 6 years, attention to palliative care has increased significantly as a result of the National Cancer Research Network with the support of the Ministry of Health. The success of health system plan requires great attention to its aspects of social, political, and executive feasibility. Careful management by policymakers of different stakeholders is vital to ensure support for any national plan, but this is challenging to achieve.

  8. American Legal Realism: Research Programme and Policy Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frans L. Leeuw

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses two questions:1. Can Legal Realism be seen as a scientific research programme enabling growth of knowledge? To answer that question, the author uses Lakatos’s  work on the methodology of scientific research programmes as a frame of reference.2. What has been the role of American Legal Realism during the first part of the 20th century in helping to develop and implement the New Deal policy vis-à-vis its scientific work?After outlining some characteristics of American Legal Realism and Lakatos’s concept, the author studies LR from this perspective and concludes that LR can at the maximum be seen as a research programme of a very rudimentary nature with largely only a focus on procedures/methods. Despite this conclusion, LR has been important in stimulating questions in which social science research and law came together. Next, the professor-realist-relationship that helped President Roosevelt to have his New Deal developed and implemented is also discussed. A downside of this ‘professor-realist-advisor-partnership’ may have been that a LR scientific research programme has not been developed. Given the increased visibility of New Legal Realism, the paper finally stresses the relevance of working with scientific research programmes and the importance of being on the alert when linking research to (legal policies.

  9. Large scale hydro-economic modelling for policy support

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Roo, Ad; Burek, Peter; Bouraoui, Faycal; Reynaud, Arnaud; Udias, Angel; Pistocchi, Alberto; Lanzanova, Denis; Trichakis, Ioannis; Beck, Hylke; Bernhard, Jeroen

    2014-05-01

    To support European Union water policy making and policy monitoring, a hydro-economic modelling environment has been developed to assess optimum combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. This modelling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the LUMP land use model, the LISFLOOD water quantity model, the EPIC water quality model, the LISQUAL combined water quantity, quality and hydro-economic model, and a multi-criteria optimisation routine. With this modelling environment, river basin scale simulations are carried out to assess the effects of water-retention measures, water-saving measures, and nutrient-reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index (WEI), Nitrate and Phosphate concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector, as well as the economic loss due to flood damage. Recently, this model environment is being extended with a groundwater model to evaluate the effects of measures on the average groundwater table and available resources. Also, water allocation rules are addressed, while having environmental flow included as a minimum requirement for the environment. Economic functions are currently being updated as well. Recent development and examples will be shown and discussed, as well as open challenges.

  10. Ex-Ante Impact Assessment & Value Network Analysis for SI: SIMPACT Policy Brief 1

    OpenAIRE

    Dhondt, S.; Ven, H. van de; Cressey, P.; Kaderabkova, A.; Luna, Á.; Moghadam Saman, S.; Castro Spila, J.; Terstriep, J.

    2016-01-01

    In this Policy Brief, a conceptual framework is presented to conduct an ex-ante impact assessment for social innovation. The building blocks for an ex-ante impact assessment are goal formulation; developing the relationships between inputs, outputs and outcomes; determining the role of stakeholders to achieve the objectives; calculating the impact; and deciding on the social innovation. These building blocks are sequentially interconnected to each other. In the brief, we present the experienc...

  11. Impact of the zero-markup drug policy on hospitalisation expenditure in western rural China: an interrupted time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Caijun; Shen, Qian; Cai, Wenfang; Zhu, Wenwen; Li, Zongjie; Wu, Lina; Fang, Yu

    2017-02-01

    To assess the long-term effects of the introduction of China's zero-markup drug policy on hospitalisation expenditure and hospitalisation expenditures after reimbursement. An interrupted time series was used to evaluate the impact of the zero-markup drug policy on hospitalisation expenditure and hospitalisation expenditure after reimbursement at primary health institutions in Fufeng County of Shaanxi Province, western China. Two regression models were developed. Monthly average hospitalisation expenditure and monthly average hospitalisation expenditure after reimbursement in primary health institutions were analysed covering the period 2009 through to 2013. For the monthly average hospitalisation expenditure, the increasing trend was slowed down after the introduction of the zero-markup drug policy (coefficient = -16.49, P = 0.009). For the monthly average hospitalisation expenditure after reimbursement, the increasing trend was slowed down after the introduction of the zero-markup drug policy (coefficient = -10.84, P = 0.064), and a significant decrease in the intercept was noted after the second intervention of changes in reimbursement schemes of the new rural cooperative medical insurance (coefficient = -220.64, P markup drug policy in western China. However, hospitalisation expenditure and hospitalisation expenditure after reimbursement were still increasing. More effective policies are needed to prevent these costs from continuing to rise. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Energy modelling platforms for policy and strategy support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dyner, I.

    2000-01-01

    The energy field has been dominated by 'hard' modelling approaches by researchers from engineering and economics discipline. The recent trend towards a more liberalised environment moves away from central planning to market-based resource allocation, leading to the creation and use of strategic tools, with much 'softer' specifications, in the 'system-thinking' tradition. This paper presents the use of system dynamics in a generalised way, to provide a platform for integrated energy analysis. Issues of modularity and policy evolution are important in the design of the modelling platform to facilitate its use, and reuse. Hence the concepts of a platform, rather than a model, has to be implemented in a coherent way if it is to provide sustained value for ongoing support to both government policy and corporate strategy. (author)

  13. Hybridization of governance : The challenge of balancing policy impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Heijden, J.J.

    2009-01-01

    This paper focuses on the impacts of hybrid forms of governance. Such hybrids are characterized by an arrangement of tasks and responsibilities, regarding regulatory governance, between public and private sector agencies. Empirically the paper is based on regulatory reforms in Australian and

  14. The Internet's Impact on Policy Evaluation: Information Compression and Credibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozeman, Barry

    2004-01-01

    As with all media, the Internet structures and frames information, rewarding some information search and decision behaviors while punishing others and, thereby, strongly influences evaluation research results and possibilities. Now that the Internet is for many evaluators the information medium of choice, the impacts of the medium on evaluation…

  15. The Impact of School Tobacco Policies on Student Smoking in Washington State, United States and Victoria, Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard F. Catalano

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper measures tobacco polices in statewide representative samples of secondary and mixed schools in Victoria, Australia and Washington, US (N = 3,466 students from 285 schools and tests their association with student smoking. Results from confounder-adjusted random effects (multi-level regression models revealed that the odds of student perception of peer smoking on school grounds are decreased in schools that have strict enforcement of policy (odds ratio (OR = 0.45; 95% CI: 0.25 to 0.82; p = 0.009. There was no clear evidence in this study that a comprehensive smoking ban, harsh penalties, remedial penalties, harm minimization policy or abstinence policy impact on any of the smoking outcomes.

  16. Developing research about extreme events and impacts to support international climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Friederike; James, Rachel; Parker, Hannah; Boyd, Emily; Jones, Richard; Allen, Myles; Mitchell, Daniel; Cornforth, Rosalind

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is expected to have some of its most significant impacts through changes in the frequency and severity of extreme events. There is a pressing need for policy to support adaptation to changing climate risks, and to deal with residual loss and damage from climate change. In 2013, the Warsaw International Mechanism was established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to address loss and damage in developing countries. Strategies to help vulnerable regions cope with losses from extreme events will presumably require information about the influence of anthropogenic forcing on extreme weather. But what kind of scientific evidence will be most useful for the Warsaw Mechanism? And how can the scientific communities working on extreme events and impacts develop their research to support the advance of this important policy? As climate scientists conducting probabilistic event attribution studies, we have been working with social scientists to investigate these questions. Our own research seeks to examine the role of external drivers, including greenhouse gas emissions, on the risk of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, flooding, and drought. We use large ensembles of climate models to compute the probability of occurrence of extreme events under current conditions and in a world which might have been without anthropogenic interference. In cases where the models are able to simulate extreme weather, the analysis allows for conclusions about the extent to which climate change may have increased, decreased, or made no change to the risk of the event occurring. These results could thus have relevance for the UNFCCC negotiations on loss and damage, and we have been communicating with policymakers and observers to the policy process to better understand how we can develop our research to support their work; by attending policy meetings, conducting interviews, and using a participatory game developed with the Red Cross

  17. A Danish case. Portfolio evaluation and its impact on energy efficiency policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Togeby, M.; Dyhr-Mikkelsen, K. [Ea Energy Analyses, Frederiksholms Kanal 4, 1220 Copenhagen K (Denmark); Larsen, A.E. [Department of Society and Globalisation, Roskilde University, Universitetsvej 1, 4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Bach, P. [Danish Energy Agency, Amaliegade 44, 1256 Copenhagen K (Denmark)

    2012-01-15

    A political agreement from 2005 stated that an evaluation of the entire Danish energy efficiency policy portfolio must be carried out before the end of 2008, with the aim to assess the following: (1) Is the policy portfolio sufficient to meet the energy efficiency targets? (2) Do the policies enable the national goals to be met in a cost-effective manner? (3) Is the overall design of the policy portfolio appropriate? The evaluation gave recommendations on how to improve and develop the portfolio, mainly using cost-effectiveness as criteria. The evaluation was completed in December 2008, and this paper presents the main findings and the subsequent impact on Danish policy. A key lesson learned is the importance of including all energy efficiency policies in the evaluation. Examining the entire portfolio of policies (as opposed to only selected policies) gave way to findings that would otherwise not have been captured. With its broad perspective, the evaluation found that the policy instruments prioritised the commercial and industrial sectors less than the household and public sectors. The recommendations made by the authors contributed to the implementation of new taxes for the commercial and industrial sectors together with the reform of the Electricity Saving Trust to a Centre for Energy Savings charged with energy savings within all sectors, except transport - both which have been important steps towards a more cost-effective solution.

  18. The Near-Term Impacts of Carbon Mitigation Policies on Manufacturing Industries

    OpenAIRE

    Morgenstern, Richard; Shih, Jhih-Shyang; Ho, Mun; Zhang, Xuehua

    2002-01-01

    Who will pay for new policies to reduce carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions in the United States? This paper considers a slice of the question by examining the near-term impact on domestic manufacturing industries of both upstream (economy-wide) and downstream (electric power industry only) carbon mitigation policies. Detailed Census data on the electricity use of four-digit manufacturing industries is combined with input-output information on interindustry purchases to paint a ...

  19. Regional Investment Policy Under The Impact Of Budget Limitations And Economic Sanctions

    OpenAIRE

    Avramenko, Yelena S.; Vlasov, Semyon V.; Lukyanov, Sergey A.; Temkina, Irina M.

    2018-01-01

    This article presents the results of research on the impact which budget limitations and economic sanctions have had on regional investment policy External sanctions and sluggish economic growth have affected the social and economic development of the region. Relying on the results of comparative and statistical analysis, the article demonstrates the need for altering the focus of current investment policy from quantitative growth to qualitative enhancement. The article analyses a new trend i...

  20. TENDENCIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF BUDGET REVENUES UNDER THE IMPACT OF TAX POLICY OF ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DOBROTĂ GABRIELA

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Currently, the need to ensure sustainable development has become a central point of debates and of the economic policies. Obviously, the influence of the level of financial resources mobilized at the state level is crucial, reason for it is necessary to promote a sustainable fiscal policy. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of fiscal policy measures on budget revenues, in terms of volume and their structure in Romania. Empirical researchs realised, reflected a longitudinal study that targeted budget income trends between 2006-2015, both in terms of total volume and in terms of revenues for each category of taxation. The results of this study demonstrate the use of a pro-cyclical fiscal policy, with negative effects in terms of the impact on the budget deficit and a poor correlation with other components of macroeconomic policy.

  1. Health, alcohol and EU law: understanding the impact of European single market law on alcohol policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumberg, Ben; Anderson, Peter

    2008-08-01

    Many professionals in the alcohol field see the role of the the European Court of Justice (ECJ) as negative for health. This review examines ECJ and European Free Trade Association (EFTA) case law in the context of two broader debates: firstly the extension of European Union (EU) law into alcohol policy (the 'juridification' of alcohol policy), and secondly the extent to which alcohol policy is an example of the dominance of 'negative integration' (the removal of trade-distorting policy) over 'positive integration' (the creation of European alcohol policies). A comprehensive review of all ECJ/EFTA Court cases on alcohol, with interpretation aided by a secondary review on alcohol and EU law and the broader health and trade field. From looking at taxation, minimum pricing, advertising and monopoly policies, the extension of the scope of the these courts over alcohol policy is unquestionable. However, the ECJ and EFTA Court have been prepared to prioritize health over trade concerns when considering alcohol policies, providing certain conditions have been met. While a partial juridification of alcohol policy has led to the negative integration of alcohol policies, this effect is not as strong as sometimes thought; EU law is more health friendly than it is perceived to be, and its impact on levels of alcohol-related harm appears low. Nevertheless, lessons emerge for policymakers concerned about the legality of alcohol policies under EU law. More generally, those concerned with alcohol and health should pay close attention to developments in EU law given their importance for public health policy on alcohol.

  2. Cumulative Environmental Impacts: Science and Policy to Protect Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Gina M; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Zeise, Lauren; Faust, John B

    2016-01-01

    Many communities are located near multiple sources of pollution, including current and former industrial sites, major roadways, and agricultural operations. Populations in such locations are predominantly low-income, with a large percentage of minorities and non-English speakers. These communities face challenges that can affect the health of their residents, including limited access to health care, a shortage of grocery stores, poor housing quality, and a lack of parks and open spaces. Environmental exposures may interact with social stressors, thereby worsening health outcomes. Age, genetic characteristics, and preexisting health conditions increase the risk of adverse health effects from exposure to pollutants. There are existing approaches for characterizing cumulative exposures, cumulative risks, and cumulative health impacts. Although such approaches have merit, they also have significant constraints. New developments in exposure monitoring, mapping, toxicology, and epidemiology, especially when informed by community participation, have the potential to advance the science on cumulative impacts and to improve decision making.

  3. Pilot Study: Impact of Computer Simulation on Students' Economic Policy Performance. Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domazlicky, Bruce; France, Judith

    Fiscal and monetary policies taught in macroeconomic principles courses are concepts that might require both lecture and simulation methods. The simulation models, which apply the principles gleened from comparative statistics to a dynamic world, may give students an appreciation for the problems facing policy makers. This paper is a report of a…

  4. Accounting for the distributional impacts of policy in the green accounts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horan, R.D.; Hrubovcak, J.; Shortle, J.S.; Bulte, E.H.

    2000-01-01

    Green income accounting models are designed to appropriately value changes in a country's natural resource (natural capital) base. However, green NNP is useful as a guide for domestic and international policy only to the extent that it accurately reflects the economic goals and policy options of

  5. The impact of policy change on job retention and advancement

    OpenAIRE

    Richard Dickins; Abigail McKnight

    2008-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of the Working Families Tax Credit (WFTC) on employment retention and advancement. The WFTC, which replaced Family Credit in October 1999, supplemented earnings of low paid workers living in low income families. It was designed to increase the financial incentive for low skilled workers to find and remain in work and in the process boost their family income. It finds evidence that WFTC increased employment retention among male recipients. WFTC does not appear to...

  6. Impact of energy policy instruments on the estimated level of underlying energy efficiency in the EU residential sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Filippini, Massimo; Hunt, Lester C.; Zorić, Jelena

    2014-01-01

    The promotion of energy efficiency is seen as one of the top priorities of EU energy policy (EC, 2010). In order to design and implement effective energy policy instruments, it is necessary to have information on energy demand price and income elasticities in addition to sound indicators of energy efficiency. This research combines the approaches taken in energy demand modelling and frontier analysis in order to econometrically estimate the level of energy efficiency for the residential sector in the EU-27 member states for the period 1996 to 2009. The estimates for the energy efficiency confirm that the EU residential sector indeed holds a relatively high potential for energy savings from reduced inefficiency. Therefore, despite the common objective to decrease ‘wasteful’ energy consumption, considerable variation in energy efficiency between the EU member states is established. Furthermore, an attempt is made to evaluate the impact of energy-efficiency measures undertaken in the EU residential sector by introducing an additional set of variables into the model and the results suggest that financial incentives and energy performance standards play an important role in promoting energy efficiency improvements, whereas informative measures do not have a significant impact. - Highlights: • The level of energy efficiency of the EU residential sector is estimated. • Considerable potential for energy savings from reduced inefficiency is established. • The impact of introduced energy-efficiency policy measures is also evaluated. • Financial incentives are found to promote energy efficiency improvements. • Energy performance standards also play an important role

  7. The Health Impacts of Energy Policy Pathways in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia: A Total Exposure Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, L. A.; Damdinsuren, Y.; Olkhanud, P. B.; Smith, K. R.; Turner, J. R.; Edwards, R.; Odsuren, M.; Ochir, C.

    2015-12-01

    Ulaanbaatar is home to nearly half of Mongolia's 2.8 million residents. The city's rapid growth, frigid winters, valley topography, and reliance on coal-fired stoves have led to some of the worst winter pollution levels in the world. To better understand this issue, we modeled integrated PM2.5exposures and related health impacts for various city-wide heating policies through 2024. This assessment is one of the first to employ a total exposure approach and results of the 2014 Comparative Risk Assessments of the Global Burden of Disease Project (CRA/GBD) in a policy-relevant energy study. Emissions related to heating, traffic, and power generation were considered under Business as Usual, Moderate Improvement, and Max Improvement scenarios. Calibrated outdoor models were combined with indoor models, local infiltration and time activity estimates, and demographic projections to estimate PM2.5exposures in 2014 and 2024. Indoor exposures were assigned by heating type, home type, and smoking status; outdoor exposures were assigned through geocoding. Population average annual exposures were calculated and applied to local disease rates and integrated exposure-response curves (2014 CRA/GBD) to arrive at annual projections of premature deaths and DALYs. We estimate 2014 annual average exposures at 68 μg/m3, dictated almost exclusively by indoor winter exposures. Under current trends, annual exposures increase 10% to 75 μg/m3 in 2024. This is in stark contrast to the moderate and max improvement scenarios, which lead to 2024 annual exposures that are 31%, and 68% lower, respectively. Under the Moderate scenario, 2024 per capita annual DALY and death burdens drop 26% and 22%, respectively, from 2014 levels. Under the Max scenario, 2024 per capita annual DALY and death burdens drop 71% and 66%, respectively, from 2014. SHS becomes a major contributor as emissions from other sectors decrease. Reductions are dominated by cardiovascular and lower respiratory diseases in children.

  8. Economic impacts of EU climate policy until 2020; EU:n ilmastopolitiikan talousvaikutukset vuoteen 2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rantala, O. E-mail: olavi.rantala@etla.fi

    2012-07-01

    The study evaluates the impacts of EU climate policy on the emission allowance price, electricity prices, the competitiveness of industry and macroeconomic developments in the third EU emission trading period 2013-2020. The economic impacts of climate policy on Finland are compared to the impacts on the entire EU area. It turns out that due to its cold climate and heating energy demand, higher export intensity of the economy and higher energy intensity of the industry Finland pays a higher price for EU climate policy in terms of output and employment losses than the EU on average. The study examines the macroeconomic effects of climate policy also in the more distant future, assuming that climate policy is tightened further in the 2020s. Climate policy implemented by emission trading means that the long-term economic growth in the EU area depends essentially on emission-free electricity production, and no longer on other growth factors, such as the labour supply and productivity growth. (orig.)

  9. Obesity prevention advocacy in Australia: an analysis of policy impact on autonomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haynes, Emily; Hughes, Roger; Reidlinger, Dianne P

    2017-06-01

    To explore obesity policy options recommended by stakeholders and identify their impact on individual autotomy. Qualitative and quantitative methods were used. A content analysis of submissions to the Australian Government's Inquiry into Obesity was conducted. Each recommendation was categorised by its impact on autonomy, according to existing frameworks. Chi-square test for independence was used to explore the association between autonomy and stakeholder support defined as frequency of recommendation. The extent of support for a policy option was significantly associated with impact on autonomy (pautonomy were least frequently recommended in every setting; but more likely in schools (27%) than other settings (autonomy were most widely recommended (46%). Stakeholders advocated policy options that enhance individual autonomy to a greater extent than those that diminish autonomy. Implications for public health: Targeting obesity policy options that enhance rather than diminish autonomy may be more politically acceptable across most settings, with the exception of schools where more restrictive policy options are appropriate. Re-framing options accordingly may improve leadership by government in obesity policy. © 2017 The Authors.

  10. The impact of consumer returns policies on consignment contracts with inventory control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, W.; Li, Y.; Govindan, Kannan

    2014-01-01

    , and then the retailer sets her retail price for selling the product. The vendor gets paid based on net sold units and salvages unsold units as well as returned items in a secondary market. Under the framework, we study and compare two different consignment arrangements: the retailer/vendor manages consignment inventory...... (RMCI/VMCI) programs. To study the impact of return policy, we discuss a consignment contract without return policy as a benchmark. We show that whether or not the vendor offers a return policy, it is always beneficial for the channel to delegate the inventory decision to the vendor. We find...

  11. Impact, regulation and health policy implications of physician migration in OECD countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simoens Steven

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the face of rising demand for medical services due to ageing populations, physician migration flows are increasingly affecting the supply of physicians in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and development (OECD countries. This paper offers an integrated perspective on the impact of physician migration on home and host countries and discusses international regulation and policy approaches governing physician migration. Methods Information about migration flows, international regulation and policies governing physician migration were derived from two questionnaires sent to OECD countries, a secondary analysis of EUROSTAT Labour Force Surveys, a literature review and official policy documents of OECD countries. Results OECD countries increasingly perceive immigration of foreign physicians as a way of sustaining their physician workforce. As a result, countries have entered into international agreements regulating physician migration, although their success has been limited due to the imposition of licensing requirements and the protection of vested interests by domestic physicians. OECD countries have therefore adopted specific policies designed to stimulate the immigration of foreign physicians, whilst minimising its negative impact on the home country. Measures promoting immigration have included international recruitment campaigns, less strict immigration requirements and arrangements that foster shared learning between health care systems. Policies restricting the societal costs of physician emigration from developing countries such as good practice guidelines and taxes on host countries have not yet produced their expected effect or in some cases have not been established at all. Conclusions Although OECD countries generally favour long-term policies of national self-sufficiency to sustain their physician workforce, such policies usually co-exist with short-term or medium-term policies to attract foreign physicians

  12. On the Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Oil Prices: An Asymmetry Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Previous research has assessed the impact of policy uncertainty on a few macro variables. In this paper, we consider its impact on oil prices. Oil prices are usually determined in global markets by the law of demand and supply. Our concern in this paper is to determine which country’s policy uncertainty measure has an impact on oil prices. Using both the linear and the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL methods, we find that while policy uncertainty measures of Canada, China, Europe, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the U.S. have short-run effects, short-run effects last into the long-run asymmetric effects only in the case of China. This may reflect the importance and recent surge in China’s engagement in world trade.

  13. A Critical Discourse Analysis of Provincial Policies Impacting Shelter Service Delivery to Women Exposed to Violence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burnett, Camille; Ford-Gilboe, Marilyn; Berman, Helene; Ward-Griffin, Cathy; Wathen, Nadine

    2015-01-01

    Shelters for abused women function within a broad context that includes intersecting social structures, policies, and resources, which may constrain and limit the options available to abused women and tacitly reinforce the cycle of abuse. This feminist, qualitative study combined in-depth interviews and focus groups conducted with 37 staff and four executive directors from four shelters in Ontario, Canada, along with a critical discourse analysis of salient policy texts. Together, the interviews and critical discourse analysis formed an integrated analysis of the dialectic between policy as written and enacted. The study findings illuminate the complexity of the system and its impact on women, shelters, and the community and highlight how specific types of social policies and various social system subsystems and structures, and system configuration, shape the day to day reality of shelter service delivery and impact outcomes for abused women and their children. Collectively, these findings offer direction regarding where these policies could be improved and provide a basis for shelters, policy makers, advocates, and the community to strengthen current services and policies, potentially enhancing outcomes for women. © The Author(s) 2015.

  14. Impact of monetary policy changes on the Chinese monetary and stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Yong; Luo, Yong; Xiong, Jie; Zhao, Fei; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

    2013-10-01

    The impact of monetary policy changes on the monetary market and stock market in China is investigated in this study. The changes of two major monetary policies, the interest rate and required reserve ratio, are analyzed in a study period covering seven years on the interbank monetary market and Shanghai stock market. We find that the monetary market is related to the macro economy trend and we also find that the monetary change surprises both of lowering and raising bring significant impacts to the two markets and the two markets respond to the changes differently. The results suggest that the impact of fluctuations is much larger for raising policy changes than lowering changes in the monetary market on policy announcing and effective dates. This is consistent with the “sign effect”, i.e. bad news brings a greater impact than good news. By studying the event window of each policy change, we also find that the “sign effect” still exists before and after each change in the monetary market. A relatively larger fluctuation is observed before the event date, which indicates that the monetary market might have a certain ability to predict a potential monetary change, while it is kept secret by the central bank before official announcement. In the stock market, we investigate how the returns and spreads of the Shanghai stock market index respond to the monetary changes. Evidences suggest the stock market is influenced but in a different way than the monetary market. The climbing of returns after the event dates for the lowering policy agrees with the theory that lowering changes can provide a monetary supply to boost the market and drive the stock returns higher but with a delay of 2 to 3 trading days on average. While in the bear market, the lowering policy brings larger volatility to the market on average than the raising ones. These empirical findings are useful for policymakers to understand how monetary policy changes impact the monetary and stock markets

  15. Climate and competitiveness: An economic impact assessment of EU leadership in emission control policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alexeeva-Talebi, V.; Boehringer, C.; Moslener, U. [Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim (Germany)

    2007-07-01

    The European Council has recently claimed to consider ambitious emission reduction targets (15 to 30 percent by 2020 as compared to 1990 levels) to limit global climate change. In light of the coexistent EU priorities under the Lisbon process, the authors analyze alternative unilateral EU emission control policies against their effects on EU (sectoral and economy-wide) competitiveness using a multi-sector, multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model framework. For a given emission reduction target, the simulations show that alternative implementation rules (uniform versus sectorally differentiated carbon taxes) induce ambiguous impacts on sectoral competitiveness: For a uniform tax, relatively carbon-intensive EU industries face competitiveness losses, while carbon-extensive sectors improve their ability to compete internationally. Losses and gains are reinforced by the stringency of unilateral emission reduction targets. Thus, the implementation of an (economically efficient) uniform carbon tax induces structural change which inevitably goes at the expense of carbon-intensive industries. Vice versa, the authors find that more pronounced tax differentiation in favor of carbon-intensive industries can largely neutralize the negative impacts of emission constraints on their competitiveness, but goes at the expense of overall efficiency. In this case, adjustment costs of emission abatement will to a large extent be born by energy-extensive sectors in terms of a deteriorated ability to compete. As a middle course, moderate tax differentiation allows to sectorally balance competitiveness effects of emission control policies and at the same time limit overall efficiency losses. The authors find also that the level of tax differentiation to balance sectoral competitiveness effects and to limit overall efficiency losses is independent of the emission reduction target. Furthermore, the results indicate that the magnitude of sectoral competitiveness effects is

  16. Useful models for simulating policies to induce technological change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivers, Nic; Jaccard, Mark

    2006-01-01

    Conventional top-down and bottom-up energy-economy models have limitations that affect their usefulness to policy-makers. Efforts to develop hybrid models, that incorporate valuable aspects of these two frameworks, may be more useful by representing technologies in the energy-economy explicitly while also representing more realistically the way in which businesses and consumers choose between those technologies. This representation allows for the realistic simulation of a wide range of technology-specific regulations and fiscal incentives alongside economy-wide fiscal incentives and disincentives. These policies can be assessed based on the costs required to reach a goal in the medium term, as well as on the degree to which they induce technological change that affects costs over long time periods

  17. Can policy ameliorate socioeconomic inequities in obesity and obesity-related behaviours? A systematic review of the impact of universal policies on adults and children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olstad, D L; Teychenne, M; Minaker, L M; Taber, D R; Raine, K D; Nykiforuk, C I J; Ball, K

    2016-12-01

    This systematic review examined the impact of universal policies on socioeconomic inequities in obesity, dietary and physical activity behaviours among adults and children. PRISMA-Equity guidelines were followed. Database searches spanned from 2004 to August 2015. Eligible studies assessed the impact of universal policies on anthropometric, dietary or physical activity-related outcomes in adults or children according to socioeconomic position. Thirty-six studies were included. Policies were classified as agentic, agento-structural or structural, and their impact on inequities was rated as positive, neutral, negative or mixed according to the dominant associations observed. Most policies had neutral impacts on obesity-related inequities regardless of whether they were agentic (60% neutral), agento-structural (68% neutral) or structural (67% neutral). The proportion of positive impacts was similar across policy types (10% agentic, 18% agento-structural and 11% structural), with some differences for negative impacts (30% agentic, 14% agento-structural and 22% structural). The majority of associations remained neutral when stratified by participant population, implementation level and socioeconomic position measures and by anthropometric and behavioural outcomes. Fiscal measures had consistently neutral or positive impacts on inequities. Findings suggest an important role for policy in addressing obesity in an equitable manner and strengthen the case for implementing a broad complement of policies spanning the agency-structure continuum. © 2016 World Obesity Federation.

  18. Simulation modelling as a tool for knowledge mobilisation in health policy settings: a case study protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freebairn, L; Atkinson, J; Kelly, P; McDonnell, G; Rychetnik, L

    2016-09-21

    Evidence-informed decision-making is essential to ensure that health programs and services are effective and offer value for money; however, barriers to the use of evidence persist. Emerging systems science approaches and advances in technology are providing new methods and tools to facilitate evidence-based decision-making. Simulation modelling offers a unique tool for synthesising and leveraging existing evidence, data and expert local knowledge to examine, in a robust, low risk and low cost way, the likely impact of alternative policy and service provision scenarios. This case study will evaluate participatory simulation modelling to inform the prevention and management of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). The risks associated with GDM are well recognised; however, debate remains regarding diagnostic thresholds and whether screening and treatment to reduce maternal glucose levels reduce the associated risks. A diagnosis of GDM may provide a leverage point for multidisciplinary lifestyle modification interventions. This research will apply and evaluate a simulation modelling approach to understand the complex interrelation of factors that drive GDM rates, test options for screening and interventions, and optimise the use of evidence to inform policy and program decision-making. The study design will use mixed methods to achieve the objectives. Policy, clinical practice and research experts will work collaboratively to develop, test and validate a simulation model of GDM in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The model will be applied to support evidence-informed policy dialogues with diverse stakeholders for the management of GDM in the ACT. Qualitative methods will be used to evaluate simulation modelling as an evidence synthesis tool to support evidence-based decision-making. Interviews and analysis of workshop recordings will focus on the participants' engagement in the modelling process; perceived value of the participatory process, perceived

  19. Equity impact of interventions and policies to reduce smoking in youth: systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Tamara; Platt, Stephen; Amos, Amanda

    2014-11-01

    A systematic review to assess the equity impact of interventions/policies on youth smoking. Biosis, Cinahl, Cochrane Library, Conference Proceedings Citation Index, Embase, Eric, Medline, Psycinfo, Science Citation Index Expanded, Social Sciences Citation Index and tobacco control experts. Published January 1995 to October 2013. Primary studies of interventions/policies reporting smoking-related outcomes in youth (11-25 years) of lower compared to higher socioeconomic status (SES). References were screened and independently checked. Studies were quality assessed; characteristics and outcomes were extracted. A narrative synthesis by intervention/policy type. Equity impact was assessed as: positive (reduced inequity), neutral (no difference by SES), negative (increased inequity), mixed (equity impact varied) or unclear.Thirty-eight studies of 40 interventions/policies were included: smokefree (12); price/tax (7); mass media campaigns (1); advertising controls (4); access controls (5); school-based programmes (5); multiple policies (3), individual-level cessation support (2), individual-level support for smokefree homes (1). The distribution of equity effects was: 7 positive, 16 neutral, 12 negative, 4 mixed, 1 unclear. All 7 positive equity studies were US-based: price/tax (4), age-of-sales laws (2) and text-messaging cessation support (1). A British school-based intervention (A Stop Smoking in Schools Trial (ASSIST)) showed mixed equity effects (neutral and positive). Most neutral equity studies benefited all SES groups. Very few studies have assessed the equity impact of tobacco control interventions/policies on young people. Price/tax increases had the most consistent positive equity impact. There is a need to strengthen the evidence base for the equity impact of youth tobacco control interventions. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  20. Knowledge mobilisation for policy development: implementing systems approaches through participatory dynamic simulation modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freebairn, Louise; Rychetnik, Lucie; Atkinson, Jo-An; Kelly, Paul; McDonnell, Geoff; Roberts, Nick; Whittall, Christine; Redman, Sally

    2017-10-02

    Evidence-based decision-making is an important foundation for health policy and service planning decisions, yet there remain challenges in ensuring that the many forms of available evidence are considered when decisions are being made. Mobilising knowledge for policy and practice is an emergent process, and one that is highly relational, often messy and profoundly context dependent. Systems approaches, such as dynamic simulation modelling can be used to examine both complex health issues and the context in which they are embedded, and to develop decision support tools. This paper reports on the novel use of participatory simulation modelling as a knowledge mobilisation tool in Australian real-world policy settings. We describe how this approach combined systems science methodology and some of the core elements of knowledge mobilisation best practice. We describe the strategies adopted in three case studies to address both technical and socio-political issues, and compile the experiential lessons derived. Finally, we consider the implications of these knowledge mobilisation case studies and provide evidence for the feasibility of this approach in policy development settings. Participatory dynamic simulation modelling builds on contemporary knowledge mobilisation approaches for health stakeholders to collaborate and explore policy and health service scenarios for priority public health topics. The participatory methods place the decision-maker at the centre of the process and embed deliberative methods and co-production of knowledge. The simulation models function as health policy and programme dynamic decision support tools that integrate diverse forms of evidence, including research evidence, expert knowledge and localised contextual information. Further research is underway to determine the impact of these methods on health service decision-making.

  1. Policy options for alcohol price regulation: the importance of modelling population heterogeneity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Petra Sylvia; Purshouse, Robin; Brennan, Alan

    2010-03-01

    Context and aims Internationally, the repertoire of alcohol pricing policies has expanded to include targeted taxation, inflation-linked taxation, taxation based on alcohol-by-volume (ABV), minimum pricing policies (general or targeted), bans of below-cost selling and restricting price-based promotions. Policy makers clearly need to consider how options compare in reducing harms at the population level, but are also required to demonstrate proportionality of their actions, which necessitates a detailed understanding of policy effects on different population subgroups. This paper presents selected findings from a policy appraisal for the UK government and discusses the importance of accounting for population heterogeneity in such analyses. Method We have built a causal, deterministic, epidemiological model which takes account of differential preferences by population subgroups defined by age, gender and level of drinking (moderate, hazardous, harmful). We consider purchasing preferences in terms of the types and volumes of alcoholic beverages, prices paid and the balance between bars, clubs and restaurants as opposed to supermarkets and off-licenses. Results Age, sex and level of drinking fundamentally affect beverage preferences, drinking location, prices paid, price sensitivity and tendency to substitute for other beverage types. Pricing policies vary in their impact on different product types, price points and venues, thus having distinctly different effects on subgroups. Because population subgroups also have substantially different risk profiles for harms, policies are differentially effective in reducing health, crime, work-place absence and unemployment harms. Conclusion Policy appraisals must account for population heterogeneity and complexity if resulting interventions are to be well considered, proportionate, effective and cost-effective.

  2. Policy impact of the Indonesian Central Bank certificate related on loan interest rate to the demand growth of property

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirjodirdjo, B.; Asjari, H. Y.

    2018-04-01

    The Indonesian economic indicators shown a positive progress in the last three years, Foreign exchange reserves position of the end of March 2017 stood at US 121.8 billion higher than the position of the end of 2015 amounted to US 105.9 billion of the end of 2015. This reserve would ensure the resilience and maintaining sustainable Indonesian economic growth in the future. Although Indonesia’s foreign exchange is better, the structure of expenditure in the country is still less than ideal due the proportion of spending of consumer goods is far greater than the capital goods and tend to be unproductive spending. This needs to be regulated so that in the long term does not cause balance of payments deficit. Therefore, Indonesian Central Bank took a policy to raise interest rates for retail banks from 6% to 7.25% per annum gradually up to present. Policies relating to the interest rates on loans are intended to reduce the proportion of debt financing of consumer goods, however, these policies have implications to various economic sectors and one of those is property sector. A lot of research has been conducted related the impact of loan interest to the property sector but most of it is still in partial related to the ability the people to buy. However, this research has tried to see the implication of the macro Economic Policy of Indonesian Central Bank to the property sector as a systemic problem. This paper is going to present the study on the effects of these policies on the property sector, especially residence house. To obtain a comprehensive analysis and capture the relationship between interest rate policies and their impacts to the property sector, in this study the model developed and simulated using system dynamic methodology as an approach. Various scenarios are applied to the model to get an accurate information about how and when the effectiveness of the policy related to the property sector can be enforced. The result of this study can be delivered to

  3. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

  4. Extent of alcohol prohibition in civil policy in Muslim majority countries: the impact of globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Ansari, Basma; Thow, Anne-Marie; Day, Carolyn A; Conigrave, Katherine M

    2016-10-01

    Many policies have been introduced to reduce alcohol harm in different countries. However, Muslim majority countries (MMCs), where the major religion (Islam) prohibits alcohol consumption, have less well-developed civil alcohol policies. Overall, MMCs have low prevalence of alcohol consumption, although recently most MMCs have been undergoing transition, which has sometimes increased pressure for alcohol availability and impacted on social practices, alcohol policies and broader public health. Globalization, the influence of the global alcohol industry, recent governmental transition or political instability and the presence of immigrants from non-Muslim countries can all affect civil alcohol policy. In this context, consumption overall has increased compared with two decades ago. This paper presents an overview of current civil alcohol policy, with regard to the presence or absence of alcohol prohibition, and provides an insight into the legal availability of alcohol in MMCs and the challenges facing policymakers. English, Arabic and Persian language sources were examined, using PubMed, government websites for each country and the World Health Organization (WHO). Some of the challenges MMCs may face in developing alcohol policies are explored, including the need to interact with the global economy and the potential influence of the alcohol industry. Muslim majority countries have adopted a range of civil alcohol policies in recent decades. There is a pressing need for better data and to support Muslim majority countries in alcohol policy development. Lessons from Muslim majority countries can help to inform other parts of the world. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  5. Institutionalizing policy-level health impact assessment in Europe: is coupling health impact assessment with strategic environmental assessment the next step forward?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, John; Parry, Jayne; Scully, Edward

    2005-06-01

    European Union (EU) Member States are interested in using health impact assessment (HIA) as a means of safeguarding their obligations to protect human health under the 1997 Treaty of Amsterdam. However, several have encountered difficulties institutionalizing HIA with the policy-making process. As a consequence, the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Europe has suggested coupling HIA with strategic environmental assessment (SEA). Traditionally, the incorporation of HIA into other forms of impact assessment has been resisted, for fear of losing its focus on health issues to environmental concerns, and compromising its social model of health with the introduction of biophysical indicators. But can these fears be substantiated? In this paper, we investigate the grounds for such concerns by reviewing the relevant policy documents and departmental guidelines of four non-European countries that have considered the use of integrated assessment. We found that the case for associating HIA with SEA in Europe is strong, and offers potential solutions to problems of screening, theoretical framework, causal pathways and ready entry to the policy process. Coupling HIA with SEA may thus be the next step forward in a longer journey towards institutionalizing HIA as an independent policy-linked device.

  6. The impact of a federal cigarette minimum pack price policy on cigarette use in the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doogan, Nathan J; Wewers, Mary Ellen; Berman, Micah

    2018-03-01

    Increasing cigarette prices reduce cigarette use. The US Food and Drug Administration has the authority to regulate the sale and promotion-and therefore the price-of tobacco products. To examine the potential effect of federal minimum price regulation on the sales of cigarettes in the USA. We used yearly state-level data from the Tax Burden on Tobacco and other sources to model per capita cigarette sales as a function of price. We used the fitted model to compare the status quo sales with counterfactual scenarios in which a federal minimum price was set. The minimum price scenarios ranged from $0 to $12. The estimated price effect in our model was comparable with that found in the literature. Our counterfactual analyses suggested that the impact of a minimum price requirement could range from a minimal effect at the $4 level to a reduction of 5.7 billion packs sold per year and 10 million smokers at the $10 level. A federal minimum price policy has the potential to greatly benefit tobacco control and public health by uniformly increasing the price of cigarettes and by eliminating many price-reducing strategies currently available to both sellers and consumers. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  7. Impact of Minimum Driveway Spacing Policies on Safety Performance: An Integrated Traffic Micro-Simulation and Automated Conflict Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chu C. Minh

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available A key strategy for successful access management is the adoption of driveway spacing guidelines that consider both safety and operations. The goal is to provide sufficient distance from one driveway to the next so that drivers can perceive and react to the conditions at each potential conflict point in succession. State DOTs across the country have adopted different driveway spacing standards that vary according to the access class and characteristics of the adjacent roadway, such as type of roadway, posted speed limit, and traffic volume. Utilizing the VISSIM microscopic traffic simulation tool and FHWA's Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM, this research examined safety implications of four different driveway spacing policies representing 13 states. The analysis involved calibrating the VISSIM model for an arterial roadway corridor in West Columbia, SC, and then using the calibrated model to simulate various operational changes to the corridor, including speed limits, traffic volumes, and the associated minimum driveway spacing criteria for the four different policies. SSAM was used to analyze vehicle trajectories derived from VISSIM to determine the number of conflict points. Experimental results indicate that posted speed limit and traffic volume are the primary impact factors for driveway safety, and thus, these parameters should be considered in establishing minimum driveway spacing. Findings from this study indicate that there are significant differences in safety impacts between the different driveway spacing policies adopted by various state DOTs.

  8. Availability of tobacco cessation services in substance use disorder treatment programs: Impact of state tobacco control policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abraham, Amanda J; Bagwell-Adams, Grace; Jayawardhana, Jayani

    2017-08-01

    Given the high prevalence of smoking among substance use disorder (SUD) patients, the specialty SUD treatment system is an important target for adoption and implementation of tobacco cessation (TC) services. While research has addressed the impact of tobacco control on individual tobacco consumption, largely overlooked in the literature is the potential impact of state tobacco control policies on availability of services for tobacco cessation. This paper examines the association between state tobacco control policy and availability of TC services in SUD treatment programs in the United States. State tobacco control and state demographic data (n=51) were merged with treatment program data from the 2012 National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (n=10.413) to examine availability of TC screening, counseling and pharmacotherapy services in SUD treatment programs using multivariate logistic regression models clustered at the state-level. Approximately 60% of SUD treatment programs offered TC screening services, 41% offered TC counseling services and 26% offered TC pharmacotherapy services. Results of multivariate logistic regression showed the odds of offering TC services were greater for SUD treatment programs located in states with higher cigarette excise taxes and greater spending on tobacco prevention and control. Findings indicate cigarette excise taxes and recommended funding levels may be effective policy tools for increasing access to TC services in SUD treatment programs. Coupled with changes to insurance coverage for TC under the Affordable Care Act, state tobacco control policy tools may further reduce tobacco use in the United States. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. The impact of Border policy effect on cross-border ethnic areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bie, Q. L.; Zhou, S. Y.; Li, C. S.

    2013-11-01

    Boundary effect analysis is related to border policy making in the cross-border ethnic area. The border effect literatures show that geographic boundaries have obvious impacts on economic, social and cultural relations in both sides of a nation border. Particularly in cross-border ethnic areas, each ethnic group has strong internal spatial structure relevance, and the boundary effect is more obvious. However, most of China's border areas are cross-border ethnic areas, each of border issues is unique. Under this perspective, we analyze the border effects of various boundaries can provide basis for formulating border management policies. For small scale of cross-border ethnic minority areas, how to formulate the boundary management policy is a good question to explore. This paper is demonstrated by a study of the impact of border management policies in Dehong Dai and Jingpo Autonomous Prefecture in Yunnan Province at the border area to Burma. The comparative method is used to analysis the border management policies in past 50 decades for the border area of Yunnan Province .This research aims to define trends within border policy and its influences to national security. This paper also examines Wendy Brown's liberal theory of border management policy. We found that it is not suitable for Sino-Burma border area. The conclusion is that the changes or instability of international economic and political situation has more influence to this cross-border ethnic area, and only innovative policy will be effective in cross-border ethnic area. So the border management policies should reflect the change of international context.

  10. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  11. Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

    2017-11-14

    Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing-rather than merely cost savings-again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  12. Evaluating the impact of a novel restricted reimbursement policy for quinolone antibiotics: A time series analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manns Braden

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Publicly-funded drug plans often use prior authorization policies to limit drug prescribing. To guide physician prescribing of a class of antibiotics with broad antimicrobial activity (quinolone antibiotics in accordance with new prescribing guidelines, Alberta’s provincial health ministry implemented a new mechanism for formulary restriction entitled the optional special authorization (OSA program. We conducted an observational study to determine the impact of this new formulary restriction policy on antimicrobial prescription rates as well as any clinical consequences. Methods Quinolone antibiotic use, and adherence with quinolone prescribing guidelines, was assessed before and after implementation of the OSA program in patients with common outpatient infections using an administrative data cohort and a chart review cohort, respectively. At the same time this policy was implemented to limit quinolone prescribing, two new quinolone antibiotics were added to the formulary. Using administrative data, we analysed a total of 397,534 unique index visits with regard to overall antibiotic utilization, and through chart review, we analysed 1681 charts of patients with infections of interest to determine the indications for quinolone usage. Results Using segmented regression models adjusting for age, sex and physician enrollment in the OSA program, there was no statistically significant change in the monthly rate of all quinolone use (−3.5 (95% CI −5.5, 1.4 prescriptions per 1000 index visits following implementation of the OSA program (p = 0.74. There was a significant level change in the rate of quinolone antibiotic use for urinary tract infection (−33.6 (95% CI: -23.8, -43.4 prescriptions and upper respiratory tract infection (−16.1 (95%CI: -11.6, -20.6 prescriptions per 1000 index visits. Among quinolone prescriptions identified on chart review, 42.5% and 58.5% were consistent with formulary guidelines before and

  13. Intelligent simulation of aquatic environment economic policy coupled ABM and SD models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huihui; Zhang, Jiarui; Zeng, Weihua

    2018-03-15

    Rapid urbanization and population growth have resulted in serious water shortage and pollution of the aquatic environment, which are important reasons for the complex increase in environmental deterioration in the region. This study examines the environmental consequences and economic impacts of water resource shortages under variant economic policies; however, this requires complex models that jointly consider variant agents and sectors within a systems perspective. Thus, we propose a complex system model that couples multi-agent based models (ABM) and system dynamics (SD) models to simulate the impact of alternative economic policies on water use and pricing. Moreover, this model took the constraint of the local water resources carrying capacity into consideration. Results show that to achieve the 13th Five Year Plan targets in Dianchi, water prices for local residents and industries should rise to 3.23 and 4.99 CNY/m 3 , respectively. The corresponding sewage treatment fees for residents and industries should rise to 1.50 and 2.25 CNY/m 3 , respectively, assuming comprehensive adjustment of industrial structure and policy. At the same time, the local government should exercise fine-scale economic policy combined with emission fees assessed for those exceeding a standard, and collect fines imposed as punishment for enterprises that exceed emission standards. When fines reach 500,000 CNY, the total number of enterprises that exceed emission standards in the basin can be controlled within 1%. Moreover, it is suggested that the volume of water diversion in Dianchi should be appropriately reduced to 3.06×10 8 m 3 . The reduced expense of water diversion should provide funds to use for the construction of recycled water facilities. Then the local rise in the rate of use of recycled water should reach 33%, and 1.4 CNY/m 3 for the price of recycled water could be provided to ensure the sustainable utilization of local water resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B

  14. Impacts of the Doha Round framework agreements on dairy policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, N; Kaiser, H M

    2005-05-01

    Dairy is highly regulated in many countries for several reasons. Perishability, seasonal imbalances, and inelastic supply and demand for milk can cause inherent market instability. Milk buyers typically have had more market power than dairy farmers. Comparative production advantages in some countries have led to regulations and policies to protect local dairy farmers by maintaining domestic prices higher than world prices. A worldwide consensus on reduction of border measures for protecting dairy products is unlikely, and dairy will probably be an exception in ongoing World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations. Under the Doha Round framework agreements, countries may name some products such as dairy as "sensitive," thereby excluding them from further reforms. However, new Doha Round framework agreements depart from the current WTO rule and call for product-specific spending caps. Such caps will greatly affect the dairy sector because dairy accounts for much of the aggregate measure of support (AMS) in several countries, including the United States and Canada. Also, the amounts of dairy AMS in several countries may be recalculated relative to an international reference price. In addition, all export subsidies are targeted for elimination in the Doha Round, including export credit programs and state trading enterprises, which will limit options for disposing of surplus dairy products in foreign markets. Currently, with higher domestic prices, measures for cutting or disposing of surpluses have been used in many countries. Supply control, which is not regulated by WTO rules, remains as an option. Although explicit export subsidies are restricted by WTO rules, many countries use esoteric measures to promote dairy exports. If countries agree to eliminate "consumer financed" export subsidies using a theoretical definition and measurements proposed herein as Export Subsidy Equivalents (ESE), dairy exports in many countries may be affected. Although domestic supports and

  15. Public health impacts of city policies to reduce climate change: findings from the URGENCHE EU-China project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabel, Clive E; Hiscock, Rosemary; Asikainen, Arja; Bi, Jun; Depledge, Mike; van den Elshout, Sef; Friedrich, Rainer; Huang, Ganlin; Hurley, Fintan; Jantunen, Matti; Karakitsios, Spyros P; Keuken, Menno; Kingham, Simon; Kontoroupis, Periklis; Kuenzli, Nino; Liu, Miaomiao; Martuzzi, Marco; Morton, Katie; Mudu, Pierpaolo; Niittynen, Marjo; Perez, Laura; Sarigiannis, Denis; Stahl-Timmins, Will; Tobollik, Myriam; Tuomisto, Jouni; Willers, Saskia

    2016-03-08

    Climate change is a global threat to health and wellbeing. Here we provide findings of an international research project investigating the health and wellbeing impacts of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in urban environments. Five European and two Chinese city authorities and partner academic organisations formed the project consortium. The methodology involved modelling the impact of adopted urban climate-change mitigation transport, buildings and energy policy scenarios, usually for the year 2020 and comparing them with business as usual (BAU) scenarios (where policies had not been adopted). Carbon dioxide emissions, health impacting exposures (air pollution, noise and physical activity), health (cardiovascular, respiratory, cancer and leukaemia) and wellbeing (including noise related wellbeing, overall wellbeing, economic wellbeing and inequalities) were modelled. The scenarios were developed from corresponding known levels in 2010 and pre-existing exposure response functions. Additionally there were literature reviews, three longitudinal observational studies and two cross sectional surveys. There are four key findings. Firstly introduction of electric cars may confer some small health benefits but it would be unwise for a city to invest in electric vehicles unless their power generation fuel mix generates fewer emissions than petrol and diesel. Second, adopting policies to reduce private car use may have benefits for carbon dioxide reduction and positive health impacts through reduced noise and increased physical activity. Third, the benefits of carbon dioxide reduction from increasing housing efficiency are likely to be minor and co-benefits for health and wellbeing are dependent on good air exchange. Fourthly, although heating dwellings by in-home biomass burning may reduce carbon dioxide emissions, consequences for health and wellbeing were negative with the technology in use in the cities studied. The climate-change reduction policies reduced

  16. MODELING MONETARY POLICY RULES IN THE MENACOUNTRIES: ISSUES AND EVIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamad Husam Helmi

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper estimates the monetary policy reaction function for two sets of MENAcountries: The inflation target countries, (Turkeyand Israel and the exchange ratetarget countries, (Jordan and Morocco. We motivateour empirical analysis byanalyzing a simple Taylor rule. This model looks atthe effects of inflation andoutput on setting the interest rate by the centralbank. Furthermore, we extendedour model by adding the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate using similarmodel used by Clarida et al (1998 with using GMM estimator.Findings of this study yield some interesting results,all the central banks in thesample uses interest rate smoothing in managing their monetary policy. Inaddition, The Central bank in Turkey, Israel and Morocco focuses on achievinglow level of inflation. On the other hand, the Monetary Authority in Jordan caresabout stabilizing the output gap. Estimating the extended Taylor rule suggests thehighly significant effect of foreign interest rateon setting the interest rate inTurkey. Taken all together, the results lend support to the importance of followinga rule rather than discretionary in reducing the inflation rate and crediblemonetary policy. In addition, the simple Taylor rule can be applied on MENAcountries but it requires some modification such asadding the exchange rate andthe foreign interest rate.

  17. Impact of experience on government policy toward acceptance of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Min Jung [Department of Information and Industrial Engineering, Yonsei University, 134 Shinchon-Dong, Seodaemoon-Gu, Seoul 120-749 (Korea, Republic of); Park, Heejun, E-mail: h.park@yonsei.ac.kr [Department of Information and Industrial Engineering, Yonsei University, 134 Shinchon-Dong, Seodaemoon-Gu, Seoul 120-749 (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-06-15

    As the 'low carbon, green growth' agenda, which emphasized sustainable development through equilibrium between economic growth and environmental preservation, is propagated rapidly in Korea. Despite this progress, it is not uncommon for new products made through advanced technologies, such as hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, to face public skepticism preventing market penetration. Therefore, the factors impacting customer acceptance of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have to be estimated. Furthermore, it is necessary to examine whether or not the policies related to these products can prevent public skepticism regarding them. This empirical study examining the relationship between personal experiences related to the policy and acceptance of the innovative products of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles shows that government involvement in technology targeting and promotions administered by the 'low carbon, green growth' agenda rarely stimulate potential customers' purchase intentions. Thus, technology targeting administered by the 'low carbon, green growth' agenda needs to be reconciled with customer responses to the future market. - Highlights: > Experience of the 'low carbon, green growth' policy affects perception of it. > Positive perception on the policy seldom arouses positive perception on HFCV performance. > Technology targeting by the policy rarely stimulates purchase intention of HFCV. > Desire to be regarded as a person with environment concern impacts purchase intentions.> Technology targeting by the policy needs to be reconciled with customer responses to it.

  18. Impact of experience on government policy toward acceptance of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Min Jung; Park, Heejun

    2011-01-01

    As the 'low carbon, green growth' agenda, which emphasized sustainable development through equilibrium between economic growth and environmental preservation, is propagated rapidly in Korea. Despite this progress, it is not uncommon for new products made through advanced technologies, such as hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, to face public skepticism preventing market penetration. Therefore, the factors impacting customer acceptance of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have to be estimated. Furthermore, it is necessary to examine whether or not the policies related to these products can prevent public skepticism regarding them. This empirical study examining the relationship between personal experiences related to the policy and acceptance of the innovative products of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles shows that government involvement in technology targeting and promotions administered by the 'low carbon, green growth' agenda rarely stimulate potential customers' purchase intentions. Thus, technology targeting administered by the 'low carbon, green growth' agenda needs to be reconciled with customer responses to the future market. - Highlights: → Experience of the 'low carbon, green growth' policy affects perception of it. → Positive perception on the policy seldom arouses positive perception on HFCV performance. → Technology targeting by the policy rarely stimulates purchase intention of HFCV. → Desire to be regarded as a person with environment concern impacts purchase intentions.→ Technology targeting by the policy needs to be reconciled with customer responses to it.

  19. IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC POLICIES ON POVERTY ALLEVIATION IN PAKISTAN

    OpenAIRE

    Israr Fahad; Ali Rehmat

    2013-01-01

    This paper provides strategy to explain the macroeconomic determinants for eradicating poverty in Pakistan. An empirical analysis of macroeconomic indicators are based on the data for the year 1994 to 2005. Ordinary least square estimation was used to estimate the parameters of multiple variable regression model. Gini coefficient is used to measure the inequality in income distribution. The results suggest that per capita income, and remittances, are highly significant, developmental expendit...

  20. Impact of US biofuel policy on US corn and gasoline price variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McPhail, Lihong Lu; Babcock, Bruce A.

    2012-01-01

    Despite a large number of studies that examine the influence of biofuels and biofuel policy on commodity prices, the impact of biofuel policy on commodity price variability is poorly understood. A good understanding of biofuel policy’s impact on price variability is important for mitigating food insecurity and assisting policy formation. We examine how U.S. ethanol policies such as the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates and the blend wall affect the price variability of corn and gasoline. We first present an analytical and graphical framework to identify the effect and then use stochastic partial equilibrium simulation to measure the magnitude of the impacts. We show that RFS mandates and the blend wall both reduce the price elasticity of demand for corn and gasoline and therefore increase the price variability when supply shocks occur to the markets. This has important implications for policy actions with respect to maintaining or changing the current RFS mandates and/or blend wall in the US. -- Highlights: ► The RFS is found to lead to less elastic demand for corn and gasoline. ► Thus the RFS is also found to lead to more volatile corn and gasoline prices when supply shocks occur. ► The ethanol blend wall is found to lead to less elastic corn and gasoline demand. ► Thus the blend wall is also found to lead to more volatile corn and gasoline prices.