WorldWideScience

Sample records for policy decisions based

  1. Climate policy decisions require policy-based lifecycle analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bento, Antonio M; Klotz, Richard

    2014-05-20

    Lifecycle analysis (LCA) metrics of greenhouse gas emissions are increasingly being used to select technologies supported by climate policy. However, LCAs typically evaluate the emissions associated with a technology or product, not the impacts of policies. Here, we show that policies supporting the same technology can lead to dramatically different emissions impacts per unit of technology added, due to multimarket responses to the policy. Using a policy-based consequential LCA, we find that the lifecycle emissions impacts of four US biofuel policies range from a reduction of 16.1 gCO2e to an increase of 24.0 gCO2e per MJ corn ethanol added by the policy. The differences between these results and representative technology-based LCA measures, which do not account for the policy instrument driving the expansion in the technology, illustrate the need for policy-based LCA measures when informing policy decision making.

  2. Improving societal acceptance of rad waste management policy decisions: an approach based on complex intelligence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, Suman

    2008-01-01

    In today's context elaborate public participation exercises are conducted around the world to elicit and incorporate societal risk perceptions into nuclear policy Decision-Making. However, on many occasions, such as in the case of rad waste management, the society remains unconvinced about these decisions. This naturally leads to the questions: are techniques for incorporating societal risk perceptions into the rad waste policy decision making processes sufficiently mature? How could societal risk perceptions and legal normative principles be better integrated in order to render the decisions more equitable and convincing to society? Based on guidance from socio-psychological research this paper postulates that a critical factor for gaining/improving societal acceptance is the quality and adequacy of criteria for option evaluation that are used in the policy decision making. After surveying three rad waste public participation cases, the paper identifies key lacunae in criteria abstraction processes as currently practiced. A new policy decision support model CIRDA: Complex Intelligent Risk Discourse Abstraction model that is based on the heuristic of Risk-Risk Analysis is proposed to overcome these lacunae. CIRDA's functionality of rad waste policy decision making is modelled as a policy decision-making Abstract Intelligent Agent and the agent program/abstraction mappings are presented. CIRDA is then applied to a live (U.K.) rad waste management case and the advantages of this method as compared to the Value Tree Method as practiced in the GB case are demonstrated. (author)

  3. Data-Based Decision Making at the Policy, Research, and Practice Levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schildkamp, Kim; Ebbeler, J.

    2015-01-01

    Data-based decision making (DBDM) can lead to school improvement. However, schools struggle with the implementation of DBDM. In this symposium, we will discuss research and the implementation of DBDM at the national and regional policy level and the classroom level. We will discuss policy issues

  4. CEOS contributions to informing energy management and policy decision making using space-based Earth observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eckman, Richard S.; Stackhouse, Paul W.

    2012-01-01

    Earth observations are playing an increasingly significant role in informing decision making in the energy sector. In renewable energy applications, space-based observations now routinely augment sparse ground-based observations used as input for renewable energy resource assessment applications. As one of the nine Group on Earth Observations (GEO) societal benefit areas, the enhancement of management and policy decision making in the energy sector is receiving attention in activities conducted by the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). CEOS has become the “space arm” for the implementation of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) vision. It is directly supporting the space-based, near-term tasks articulated in the GEO three-year work plan. This paper describes a coordinated program of demonstration projects conducted by CEOS member agencies and partners to utilize Earth observations to enhance energy management end-user decision support systems. We discuss the importance of engagement with stakeholders and understanding their decision support needs in successfully increasing the uptake of Earth observation products for societal benefit. Several case studies are presented, demonstrating the importance of providing data sets in formats and units familiar and immediately usable by decision makers. These projects show the utility of Earth observations to enhance renewable energy resource assessment in the developing world, forecast space weather impacts on the power grid, and improve energy efficiency in the built environment.

  5. Including values in evidence-based policy making for breast screening: An empirically grounded tool to assist expert decision makers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Lisa

    2017-07-01

    Values are an important part of evidence-based decision making for health policy: they guide the type of evidence that is collected, how it is interpreted, and how important the conclusions are considered to be. Experts in breast screening (including clinicians, researchers, consumer advocates and senior administrators) hold differing values in relation to what is important in breast screening policy and practice, and committees may find it difficult to incorporate the complexity and variety of values into policy decisions. The decision making tool provided here is intended to assist with this process. The tool is modified from more general frameworks that are intended to assist with ethical decision making in public health, and informed by data drawn from previous empirical studies on values amongst Australian breast screening experts. It provides a structured format for breast screening committees to consider and discuss the values of themselves and others, suggests relevant topics for further inquiry and highlights areas of need for future research into the values of the public. It enables committees to publicly explain and justify their decisions with reference to values, improving transparency and accountability. It is intended to act alongside practices that seek to accommodate the values of individual women in the informed decision making process for personal decision making about participation in breast screening. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Multicriteria-based decision aiding technique for assessing energy policy elements-demonstration to a case in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahman, Md. Mizanur; Paatero, Jukka V.; Lahdelma, Risto; Wahid, Mazlan A.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A multicriteria technique for assessing energy policy elements has been proposed. • Energy policy elements have been examined based on assigned criteria. • This assessment gives results which are representative of all stakeholders. • Policy elements which are chosen by this method promote sustainability. - Abstract: The adverse environmental consequences and diminishing trend of fossil fuel reserves indicate a serious need for vibrant and judicious energy policy. Energy policy involves a number of stakeholders, and needs to incorporate the interests and requirements of all the key stakeholder groups. This paper presents a methodological technique to assist with formulating, evaluating, and promoting the energy policy of a country in a transparent and representative way with clear scientific justifications and balanced assessments. The multicriteria decision analysis approach has been a widely used technique for evaluating different alternatives based on the interests of a multitude of stakeholders, and goals. This paper utilizes the SMAA (Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis) tool, which can evaluate different alternatives by incorporating multiple criteria, in order to examine the preferences of different policy elements. We further extend this technique by incorporating the LEAP model (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system) to assess the emission impacts of different policy elements. We demonstrate the application of this evaluation technique by an analysis of four hypothetical policy elements namely Business-as usual (BAU), Renewables (REN), Renewable-biomass only (REN-b), and Energy conservation and efficient technologies (ECET). These are applied to the case of sharing fuel sources for power generation for the Bangladesh power sector. We found that the REN-b and REN policy elements were the best and second best alternatives with 41% and 32% acceptability respectively. This technique gives transparent information for

  7. Policy issues arising from the judgmental nature of risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mcquaid, J.

    1998-01-01

    The regulation of risks is pervaded by the need to exercise judgement. The scientific basis for characterising risk problems and judging the effectiveness of possible controls is often uncertain, lacking information and understanding of the processes involved. However, the risk management measures adopted will not be determined by science alone, but must reflect sociological, economic, ethical and political considerations. These in turn are in themselves judgmental, informed to a greater or lesser extent by empirical evidence and influenced by the prevailing climate of public opinion. The overall process provides a rich source of confusion for the public as to the status of the eventual policy decision, with important implications for the manner in which the process of communication is managed. The important role of judgement, as distinct from formal analysis, at every stage needs to be reflected in risk communication. The engagement of those who bear the risks, and of other interested parties in the exercise of judgement must be tailored to nature of the judgement and to the decision to be made. Appropriate procedures need to be adopted to enable that engagement. Although the issue has come into particular prominence in recent years, it is not a new phenomenon. The presentation will describe the arrangements that have been developed in the UK over the past 25 years, and will be illustrated by some specific examples of risk decision making on issues of high public concern. (author)

  8. Workshop: Community Based Environmental Decision Making, Proceedings of the Fifth Workshop in the Environmental Policy and Economics Workshop Series (2000)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proceedings from a one-day workshop cosponsored by US EPA Office of Economy and Environment and National Center for Environmental Research and the National Science Foundation Decision, Risk,and Management Science Program on community-based decision making

  9. The use of decision analytic techniques in energy policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Seppaelaeinen, T.O.

    1986-08-01

    The report reviews decision analytic techniques and their applications to energy policy decision making. Decision analysis consists in techniques for structuring the essential elements of a decision problem and mathematical methods for ranking the alternatives from a set of simple judgments. Because modeling subjective judgments is characteristic of decision analysis, the models can incorporate qualitative factors and values, which escape traditional energy modeling. Decision analysis has been applied to choices among energy supply alternatives, siting energy facilities, selecting nuclear waste repositories, selecting research and development projects, risk analysis and prioritizing alternative energy futures. Many applications are done in universities and research institutions, but during the 70's the use of decision analysis has spread both to the public and the private sector. The settings where decision analysis has been applied range from aiding a single decision maker to clarifying opposing points of view. Decision analytic methods have also been linked with energy models. The most valuable result of decision analysis is the clarification of the problem at hand. Political decisions cannot be made solely on the basis of models, but models can be used to gain insight of the decision situation. Models inevitably simplify reality, so they must be regarded only as aids to judgment. So far there has been only one decision analysis of energy policy issues in Finland with actual political decision makers as participants. The experiences of this project and numerous foreign applications do however suggest that the decision analytic approach is useful in energy policy questions. The report presents a number of Finnish energy policy decisions where decision analysis might prove useful. However, the applicability of the methods depends crucially on the actual circumstances at hand

  10. Dissolving decision making? : Models and their roles in decision-making processes and policy at large

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, S.

    2014-01-01

    This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making.

  11. Decision Strategy Research: Policy Support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardeman, F.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategy research are (1) to support and advise the Belgian authorities on specific problems concerning existing and potential hazards from exposure to ionising radiation, both in normal and emergency situations; (2) to perform research on relevant topics that might have an important impact on decision making related to nuclear applications, including social and economic sciences. Main achievements in this area in 1999 are described

  12. Evidence-based policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vohnsen, Nina Holm

    2013-01-01

    A current ambition in welfare states as diverse as Denmark, the UK, and in the USA is to base political decision making on rigorous research (Cartwright et al 2009; Mulgan 2009; Bason 2010). Sound as this might seem the ambition has nevertheless been problematized by both policy-makers and the re......A current ambition in welfare states as diverse as Denmark, the UK, and in the USA is to base political decision making on rigorous research (Cartwright et al 2009; Mulgan 2009; Bason 2010). Sound as this might seem the ambition has nevertheless been problematized by both policy......-makers and the research community (e.g. Boden & Epstein 2006; House of Commons 2006; Cartwright et al 2009; Rod 2010; Vohnsen 2011). This article intends to draw out some general pitfalls in the curious meeting of science and politics by focusing on a particular attempt to make evidence-based legislation in Denmark (for...... a full account, see Vohnsen 2011). These insights will be relevant for the anthropological researcher of legislative processes who wishes to move beyond a merely discursive approach to the study of policy and politics....

  13. EU policy objectives and energy investment decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Alario, Juan

    2007-01-01

    EU energy policies have changed focus in the last few years with a view to substantially reducing energy import dependency and greenhouse gas emissions. The EU Commission has played a leading role in defining the new orientations. The implementation of the EU policy objectives approved by the Council of March 2007 will require a substantial expansion of energy investments. However, the degree of uncertainty affecting investment decisions remains high, notably in relation to the pricing of CO2...

  14. A Case Study of Community Involvement Influence on Policy Decisions: Victories of a Community-Based Participatory Research Partnership

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edith M. Williams

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The Buffalo Lupus Project was a community-university partnership that investigated associations between exposure to a local waste site and high rates of lupus and other autoimmune diseases. The partnership’s major accomplishment was successful advocacy for containment and clean-up of the site. As a result of community education, the remediation plan suggested by the community was adopted. Additionally, when a local childhood lead poisoning testing program was canceled, community members signed a letter to legislators urging them to replace the funding, which was restored within one week. This demonstrated how coordinated community-based capacity-building efforts can influence health policy.

  15. Public education for energy policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frigren, S.

    1977-01-01

    A brief review is given of the changes that took place in 1972-73 in public opinion and political views in Sweden, leading to new attitudes and increasing interest in matters is of energy policy. Although nuclear power was from the beginning the main issue, it became more and more widely recognized that a number of complex and technically difficult problems were involved. In late 1973 the Government decided to prepare a comprehensive energy policy programme for the period 1975-85 and to put this programme before Parliament in the spring of 1975. In order to involve the public in the decision making process, a public education programme was introduced in January 1974. The essentials of this programme are described. The main effort was provided by the adult education associations. These were given financial incentives to start energy study circles and prepared their own study material. Journalist seminars were also arranged. The paper then describes how the public, by its activities in the energy study circles, was given a possibility to influence the formulation of the new Swedish energy policy. It outlines the links between the educational efforts, the discussions in the study circles, and the standpoints ultimately taken by the different political parties on the key energy issues, especially as regards the future role of nuclear power. Finally, it also tries to evaluate to what extent this effort in education and involvement can be expected to react on the implementation of the energy policy programme and on future energy policy decisions

  16. Dissolving decision making? Models and their roles in decision-making processes and policy at large.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, Stans

    2014-12-01

    This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making. Attention is paid to three aspects of the wider context of the models: a) the history of the construction process; b) (changes in) the political and scientific environments; and c) the use in policy processes over longer periods of time. Models are more successfully used when they are constructed in a stable political and scientific environment. Stability and certainty within a scientific field seems to be a key predictor for the usefulness of models for policy making. The economic model is more disputed than the ecology-based model and the model that has its theoretical foundation in physics and chemistry. The roles models play in policy processes are too complex to be considered as straightforward technocratic powers.

  17. ProVac Global Initiative: a vision shaped by ten years of supporting evidence-based policy decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jauregui, Barbara; Janusz, Cara Bess; Clark, Andrew D; Sinha, Anushua; Garcia, Ana Gabriela Felix; Resch, Stephen; Toscano, Cristiana M; Sanderson, Colin; Andrus, Jon Kim

    2015-05-07

    The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) created the ProVac Initiative in 2004 with the goal of strengthening national technical capacity to make evidence-based decisions on new vaccine introduction, focusing on economic evaluations. In view of the 10th anniversary of the ProVac Initiative, this article describes its progress and reflects on lessons learned to guide the next phase. We quantified the output of the Initiative's capacity-building efforts and critically assess its progress toward achieving the milestones originally proposed in 2004. Additionally, we reviewed how country studies supported by ProVac have directly informed and strengthened the deliberations around new vaccine introduction. Since 2004, ProVac has conducted four regional workshops and supported 24 health economic analyses in 15 Latin American and Caribbean countries. Five Regional Centers of Excellence were funded, resulting in six operational research projects and nine publications. Twenty four decisions on new vaccine introductions were supported with ProVac studies. Enduring products include the TRIVAC and CERVIVAC cost-effectiveness models, the COSTVAC program costing model, methodological guides, workshop training materials and the OLIVES on-line data repository. Ten NITAGs were strengthened through ProVac activities. The evidence accumulated suggests that initiatives with emphasis on sustainable training and direct support for countries to generate evidence themselves, can help accelerate the introduction of the most valuable new vaccines. International and Regional Networks of Collaborators are necessary to provide technical support and tools to national teams conducting analyses. Timeliness, integration, quality and country ownership of the process are four necessary guiding principles for national economic evaluations to have an impact on policymaking. It would be an asset to have a model that offers different levels of complexity to choose from depending on the vaccine being

  18. Decision Strategy Research and Policy Support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardeman, F.

    2002-01-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies and policy support is: (1) to investigate the decision making process, with all its relevant dimensions, in the context of radiation protection or other nuclear issues (with particular emphasis on emergency preparedness); (2) to disseminate knowledge on decision making and nuclear emergencies, including the organisation of training courses, the contribution to manuals or guidelines, the participation in working groups or discussion forums; (3) to assist the authorities and the industry on any topic related to radiation protection and to make expertise and infrastructure available; (4) to participate in and contribute to initiatives related to social sciences and their implementation into SCK-CEN; (5) to co-ordinate efforts of SCK-CEN related to medical applications of ionising radiation. Principal achievements in 2001 are described

  19. Partially Observable Markov Decision Process-Based Transmission Policy over Ka-Band Channels for Space Information Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Jiao

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The Ka-band and higher Q/V band channels can provide an appealing capacity for the future deep-space communications and Space Information Networks (SIN, which are viewed as a primary solution to satisfy the increasing demands for high data rate services. However, Ka-band channel is much more sensitive to the weather conditions than the conventional communication channels. Moreover, due to the huge distance and long propagation delay in SINs, the transmitter can only obtain delayed Channel State Information (CSI from feedback. In this paper, the noise temperature of time-varying rain attenuation at Ka-band channels is modeled to a two-state Gilbert–Elliot channel, to capture the channel capacity that randomly ranging from good to bad state. An optimal transmission scheme based on Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDP is proposed, and the key thresholds for selecting the optimal transmission method in the SIN communications are derived. Simulation results show that our proposed scheme can effectively improve the throughput.

  20. Using Collaborative Simulation Modeling to Develop a Web-Based Tool to Support Policy-Level Decision Making About Breast Cancer Screening Initiation Age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth S. Burnside MD, MPH, MS

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: There are no publicly available tools designed specifically to assist policy makers to make informed decisions about the optimal ages of breast cancer screening initiation for different populations of US women. Objective: To use three established simulation models to develop a web-based tool called Mammo OUTPuT. Methods: The simulation models use the 1970 US birth cohort and common parameters for incidence, digital screening performance, and treatment effects. Outcomes include breast cancers diagnosed, breast cancer deaths averted, breast cancer mortality reduction, false-positive mammograms, benign biopsies, and overdiagnosis. The Mammo OUTPuT tool displays these outcomes for combinations of age at screening initiation (every year from 40 to 49, annual versus biennial interval, lifetime versus 10-year horizon, and breast density, compared to waiting to start biennial screening at age 50 and continuing to 74. The tool was piloted by decision makers (n = 16 who completed surveys. Results: The tool demonstrates that benefits in the 40s increase linearly with earlier initiation age, without a specific threshold age. Likewise, the harms of screening increase monotonically with earlier ages of initiation in the 40s. The tool also shows users how the balance of benefits and harms varies with breast density. Surveys revealed that 100% of users (16/16 liked the appearance of the site; 94% (15/16 found the tool helpful; and 94% (15/16 would recommend the tool to a colleague. Conclusions: This tool synthesizes a representative subset of the most current CISNET (Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network simulation model outcomes to provide policy makers with quantitative data on the benefits and harms of screening women in the 40s. Ultimate decisions will depend on program goals, the population served, and informed judgments about the weight of benefits and harms.

  1. Interactions Among Insider Ownership, Dividend Policy, Debt Policy, Investment Decision, and Business Risk

    OpenAIRE

    F., Indri Erkaningrum

    2013-01-01

    The study of interaction among insider ownership, dividend policy, debt policy, investment decision, and business risk is still conducted. This research aims at investigating theinfluencing factors of insider ownership, dividend policy, debt policy, investment decision, business risk, and the interaction among insider ownership, dividend policy, debt policy, investment decision, and business risk. The samples of the research are 137 manufacturing companies listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchan...

  2. INTERACTIONS AMONG INSIDER OWNERSHIP, DIVIDEND POLICY, DEBT POLICY, INVESTMENT DECISION, AND BUSINESS RISK

    OpenAIRE

    F., Indri Erkaningrum

    2015-01-01

    The study of interaction among insider ownership, dividend policy, debt policy, investment decision, and business risk is still conducted. This research aims at investigating theinfluencing factors of insider ownership, dividend policy, debt policy, investment decision, business risk, and the interaction among insider ownership, dividend policy, debt policy, investment decision, and business risk. The samples of the research are 137 manufacturing companies listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchan...

  3. Public education for energy policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frigren, S.

    1977-01-01

    A brief review is given of the changes that took place in 1972-1973 in public opinion and political views in Sweden, leading to new attitudes and increasing interest in matters of energy policy. Although nuclear power was from the beginning the main issue, it became more and more widely recognized that a number of complex and technically difficult problems were involved. In late 1973, the Government decided to prepare a comprehensive energy policy programmme for the period 1975-1985 and to put this programme before Parliament in the spring of 1975. In order to involve the public in the decision-making process, a public education programme was introduced in January 1974. The essentials of this programme are described. The main effort was provided by the adult education associations, which were given financial incentives to start energy study circles and prepared their own study material. Journalist seminars were also arranged. The paper outlines the links between the educational efforts, the discussions in the study circles, and the standpoints ultimately taken by the different political parties on the energy issues. (author)

  4. Assumptions and Policy Decisions for Vital Area Identification Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Myungsu; Bae, Yeon-Kyoung; Lee, Youngseung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and IAEA guidance indicate that certain assumptions and policy questions should be addressed to a Vital Area Identification (VAI) process. Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power conducted a VAI based on current Design Basis Threat and engineering judgement to identify APR1400 vital areas. Some of the assumptions were inherited from Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) as a sabotage logic model was based on PSA logic tree and equipment location data. This paper illustrates some important assumptions and policy decisions for APR1400 VAI analysis. Assumptions and policy decisions could be overlooked at the beginning stage of VAI, however they should be carefully reviewed and discussed among engineers, plant operators, and regulators. Through APR1400 VAI process, some of the policy concerns and assumptions for analysis were applied based on document research and expert panel discussions. It was also found that there are more assumptions to define for further studies for other types of nuclear power plants. One of the assumptions is mission time, which was inherited from PSA.

  5. Making robust policy decisions using global biodiversity indicators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily Nicholson

    Full Text Available In order to influence global policy effectively, conservation scientists need to be able to provide robust predictions of the impact of alternative policies on biodiversity and measure progress towards goals using reliable indicators. We present a framework for using biodiversity indicators predictively to inform policy choices at a global level. The approach is illustrated with two case studies in which we project forwards the impacts of feasible policies on trends in biodiversity and in relevant indicators. The policies are based on targets agreed at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD meeting in Nagoya in October 2010. The first case study compares protected area policies for African mammals, assessed using the Red List Index; the second example uses the Living Planet Index to assess the impact of a complete halt, versus a reduction, in bottom trawling. In the protected areas example, we find that the indicator can aid in decision-making because it is able to differentiate between the impacts of the different policies. In the bottom trawling example, the indicator exhibits some counter-intuitive behaviour, due to over-representation of some taxonomic and functional groups in the indicator, and contrasting impacts of the policies on different groups caused by trophic interactions. Our results support the need for further research on how to use predictive models and indicators to credibly track trends and inform policy. To be useful and relevant, scientists must make testable predictions about the impact of global policy on biodiversity to ensure that targets such as those set at Nagoya catalyse effective and measurable change.

  6. Beliefs Underlying the Decision to Eat Breakfast: The Role of Theory-based Behavioral Analysis in the Development of Policy, Communication and Educational Interventions for Healthy Eating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middlestadt, Susan E; Stevenson, Laurel D; Hung, Chia-Ling; Roditis, Maria Leia; Fly, Alyce D; Sheats, Jylana L

    2011-01-01

    Policy, communication, and education efforts to influence any social or health outcome are more effective if based on an understanding of the underlying behaviors and their determinants. This conceptual paper outlines how behavioral theory can help design interventions for one healthy eating behavior, eating breakfast. More specifically, the paper illustrates how a prominent health behavior theory, the Reasoned Action Approach, can be used to guide formative research to identify factors underlying people's decisions. Select findings are presented from three studies of beliefs underlying eating breakfast: online surveys with 1185 undergraduates from a large university in Indiana; in-depth interviews with 61 adults from four Indiana worksites; and 63 in-depth interviews with students from three middle schools in rural Indiana. Analyses of data from the undergraduates demonstrated the role of self-efficacy. Analyses of data from the working adults revealed the importance of normative beliefs about what employers believed. Analyses comparing consequences perceived by adults with those perceived by middle school students found that both groups believed that eating breakfast would provide energy but only middle school students believed that eating breakfast would improve alertness. For each finding, the theory is presented, the finding is described, implications for interventions are suggested, and the need for additional research is outlined. In sum, theory-based behavioral research can help develop interventions at intrapersonal, interpersonal, and environmental levels that are warranted to encourage healthy eating.

  7. Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and objective With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project ‘European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast’ – http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Methods A model was built to assess policy scenarios’ impact on the pharmaceutical budgets of seven member states of the EU, namely France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. The following scenarios were tested: expanding the UK policies to EU, changing time to market access, modifying generic price and penetration, shifting the distribution chain of biosimilars (retail/hospital). Results Applying the UK policy resulted in dramatic savings for Germany (10 times the base case forecast) and substantial additional savings for France and Portugal (2 and 4 times the base case forecast, respectively). Delaying time to market was found be to a very powerful tool to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Applying the EU transparency directive (6-month process for pricing and reimbursement) increased pharmaceutical expenditure for all countries (from 1.1 to 4 times the base case forecast), except in Germany (additional savings). Decreasing the price of generics and boosting the penetration rate, as well as shifting distribution of biosimilars through hospital chain were also key methods to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Change in the level of reimbursement rate to 100% in all countries led to an important increase in the pharmaceutical budget. Conclusions Forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure is a critical exercise to inform policy decision makers. The most important leverages identified by the model on pharmaceutical budget were driven by generic and biosimilar prices, penetration rate

  8. Educational Productivity. The Impact of Policy Decisions on School Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southwest Educational Development Lab., Austin, TX.

    In order to elicit discussion on issues of concern to policy-makers at all levels of government, the Regional Planning and Service Project of the Southwest Educational Development Laboratory invited educational policy-makers from its region to participate in a symposium on the impact of policy decisions on school performance. Symposium…

  9. Potential Effects of Health Care Policy Decisions on Physician Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Christopher; Goodrich, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Many regions in America are experiencing downward trends in the number of practicing physicians and the number of available physician hours, resulting in a worrisome decrease in the availability of health care services. Recent changes in American health care legislation may induce a rapid change in the demand for health care services, which in turn will result in a new supply-demand equilibrium . In this paper we develop a system dynamics model linking physician availability to health care demand and profitability. We use this model to explore scenarios based on different initial conditions and describe possible outcomes for a range of different policy decisions.

  10. Why Are Cultural Policy Decisions Communicated in Cool Cash?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bille, Trine; Grønholm, Adam; Møgelgaard, Jeppe

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we analyze the role of the economic rationale in modern cultural policy decision communication and ask why it remains such an important factor, even though research has argued against it. Based on Luhmann’s system theory, we show how the economic rationale manifests itself...... in the cultural political communication as parasitic and complementary couplings, and how different communication forms are in play: the indirect, direct, and the both-and form. The point is to construct communicative positions in cultural policy. The positions involve the economic rationale in their own...... particular way and each of them offers themselves as a communicative platform which the culture politician can optionally step into and out of. The arts system stands out from other systems by not distinguishing itself in one single distinction and coding. In exactly this issue lies the communicative...

  11. Policy on Public Reporting of Regulatory Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Australian Government Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency, 2013

    2013-01-01

    Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency (TEQSA) has published reports on all its regulatory decisions made since July 1, 2013, irrespective of the provider category in which a provider is registered or the particular circumstances of a provider, with the exception of decisions relating to an application for initial registration from an…

  12. Application of Imprecise Decision Modeling for Regional Development Policies in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novita Erlinda

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Regional Development encompasses many aspect of economic, social, and environmental attributes. In the context of developing country, the decision to fulfill these attributes are often hindered by lack of clear development scenarios and constraints. This study is an attempt to capture the complexity of decision makers for regional development scenarios using imprecise decision modeling (IDM by incorporating imprecise information and uncertainties. A series of social, economic and environmental criteria based on agreement from multi stakeholders dialogues were developed along with four policy development scenarios. Results from such a modeling provides variety of decision alternatives based on probabilities and risk assessment associated with achieving policy objectives.

  13. Students' Reactions to Course Policy Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Sarah F.; Jenkins, Jade S.; Barber, Larissa K.

    2016-01-01

    Classroom management involves managing students' requests for course policy changes. Instructors can adhere to the course policies or convey flexibility through making an exception for the student. The current study empirically examines students' emotional reactions (hostility, guilt, and surprise) and fairness perceptions to course policy…

  14. Assessment of policy based residential solar PV potential using GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis : A case study of Apeldoorn, the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kausika, B. B.; Dolla, O.; Van Sark, W. G.J.H.M.

    2017-01-01

    The Postal Code Rose policy is part of the 2013 Dutch Energy Agreement of the Social and Economic Council of the Netherlands, introduced to support sustainable energy growth. This paper presents a case of the Dutch Postal code Rose policy by developing a method combining geographical information

  15. Application of HTA research on policy decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngkong, Sitaporn

    2014-05-01

    This article provides an overview of the potential uses of health technology assessment (HTA) in health technology or health intervention-related policy decision-making. It summarises the role of HTA in policy planning, health system investment, price negotiation, development of clinical practice guidelines, and communication with health professionals. While the multifaceted nature of HTA means that some aspects of the data can result in conflicting conclusions, the comprehensive approach of HTA is still recommended. To help minimise the potential conflicts within HTA data, a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach is recommended as a way to assess a number of decision criteria simultaneously. A combination of HTA with MCDA allows policy decision-making to be undertaken in an empirically rigorous and rational way. This combination can be used to support policy decision-makers in Thailand and help them prioritise topics for assessment and make informed health benefit package coverage decisions. This approach enhances the legitimacy of policy decisions by increasing the transparency, systematic nature, and inclusiveness of the process.

  16. Essays on public policy and household decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kabátek, Jan

    2015-01-01

    This dissertation contains four empirical analyses of household decision making and public policy. We use structural microeconometric methods to evaluate specific aspects of national tax systems which are targeted at partnered households. Our aim is to identify the determinants of household decision

  17. Situating School District Resource Decision Making in Policy Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spain, Angeline K.

    2016-01-01

    Decentralization and deregulation policies assume that local educational leaders make better resource decisions than state policy makers do. Conceptual models drawn from organizational theory, however, offer competing predictions about how district central office administrators are likely to leverage their professional expertise in devolved…

  18. Using Research Evidence to Inform Public Policy Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moseley, Charles; Kleinert, Harold; Sheppard-Jones, Kathleen; Hall, Stephen

    2013-01-01

    The application of scientific data in the development and implementation of sound public policy is a well-established practice, but there appears to be less consensus on the nature of the strategies that can and should be used to incorporate research data into policy decisions. This paper describes the promise and the challenges of using research…

  19. Policy Decisions and Research in Economics and Industrial Relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunlop, John T.

    1977-01-01

    The thesis of this paper is that the bulk of academic research in industrial relations and economics in recent years has had very little impact on either public or private policy decisions. The thesis is illustrated by examining several policy problems, e.g., manpower programs and the relationship between wages and variables such as unemployment…

  20. Scientific Decision Making, Policy Decisions, and the Obesity Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hebert, James R.; Allison, David B.; Archer, Edward; Lavie, Carl J.; Blair, Steven N.

    2013-01-01

    Rising and epidemic rates of obesity in many parts of the world are leading to increased suffering and economic stress from diverting health care resources to treating a variety of serious, but preventable, chronic diseases etiologically linked to obesity, particularly type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular diseases. Despite decades of research into the causes of the obesity pandemic, we seem to be no nearer to a solution now than when the rise in body weights was first chronicled decades ago. The case is made that impediments to a clear understanding of the nature of the problem occur at many levels. These obstacles begin with defining obesity and include lax application of scientific standards of review, tenuous assumption making, flawed measurement and other methods, constrained discourse limiting examination of alternative explanations of cause, and policies that determine funding priorities. These issues constrain creativity and stifle expansive thinking that could otherwise advance the field in preventing and treating obesity and its complications. Suggestions are made to create a climate of open exchange of ideas and redirection of policies that can remove the barriers that prevent us from making material progress in solving a pressing major public health problem of the early 21st century. PMID:23726399

  1. Special interest in decision making in entrepreneurship policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bager, Torben; Klyver, Kim; Schou Nielsen, Pia

    2015-01-01

    The study investigates the role of the special interests of key decision makers in entrepreneurship policy formation at the national level. An ethnographic method is applied to analyse in depth the 2005 decision by the Danish Government to shift from volume oriented to growth oriented entrepreneu......The study investigates the role of the special interests of key decision makers in entrepreneurship policy formation at the national level. An ethnographic method is applied to analyse in depth the 2005 decision by the Danish Government to shift from volume oriented to growth oriented...... entrepreneurship policy. The theoretical value of this paper is its challenge to the widespread rationality view in the entrepreneurship field and a deepened understanding of how the pursuit of special interests is related to ambiguous evidence and system-level rationality....

  2. Economics for assisting policy-makers to take decisions about new and endemic diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, T E

    2017-04-01

    Animal health policy-makers are frequently faced with making decisions concerning the control and exclusion of diseases in livestock and wildlife populations. Economics is one of the tools they have to aid their decision-making. It can enable them to make objective decisions based on the expected costs and benefits of their policy. In addition, economics can help them determine both the distribution impact and the indirect impact of their decisions. However, economics is only one of many tools available to policy-makers, who also need to consider non-economic outcomes in their decision-making process. While there are sophisticated epidemic and economic (epinomic) models that are available to help evaluate complex problems, these models typically require extensive data and well-trained analysts to run and interpret their results. In addition, effective communication between analysts and policy-makers is important to ensure that results are clearly conveyed to the policy-makers. This may be facilitated by early and continued discussions between these two potentially disparate groups. If successfully performed and communicated, economic analyses may present valuable information to policy-makers, enabling them to not only better understand the economic implications of their policy, but also to communicate the policy to relevant stakeholders, further ensuring their likelihood of participating in the planned policy and hence increasing its likelihood of success.

  3. Computing Optimal Stationary Policies for Multi-objective Markov Decision Processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wiering, M.A.; Jong, E.D. de

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes a novel algorithm called CONMODP for computing Pareto optimal policies for deterministic multi-objective sequential decision problems. CON-MODP is a value iteration based multi-objective dynamic programming algorithm that only computes stationary policies. We observe

  4. Risk perception as a factor in policy and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoberg, L.

    2004-01-01

    Risk perception is often believed to be an important factor in policy decision making, when it comes to the management of hazardous technology. Research on risk perception by the public since the 1970's has purportedly shown that such perception is emotional and based on ignorance. Experts, on the other hand, have been claimed to be objective and correct in their risk assessments. The present paper reviews a large body of research which has led to a quite different conclusions, viz. that emotions play only a marginal role in risk perception, which is mainly driven by ideological concerns and attitudes. The methodological shortcomings of the prevailing view of risk perception as emotional and simply misinformed are described. (author)

  5. Evidence based policy making and the 'art' of commissioning - how English healthcare commissioners access and use information and academic research in 'real life' decision-making: an empirical qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wye, Lesley; Brangan, Emer; Cameron, Ailsa; Gabbay, John; Klein, Jonathan H; Pope, Catherine

    2015-09-29

    Policymakers such as English healthcare commissioners are encouraged to adopt 'evidence-based policy-making', with 'evidence' defined by researchers as academic research. To learn how academic research can influence policy, researchers need to know more about commissioning, commissioners' information seeking behaviour and the role of research in their decisions. In case studies of four commissioning organisations, we interviewed 52 people including clinical and managerial commissioners, observed 14 commissioning meetings and collected documentation e.g. meeting minutes and reports. Using constant comparison, data were coded, summarised and analysed to facilitate cross case comparison. The 'art of commissioning' entails juggling competing agendas, priorities, power relationships, demands and personal inclinations to build a persuasive, compelling case. Policymakers sought information to identify options, navigate ways through, justify decisions and convince others to approve and/or follow the suggested course. 'Evidence-based policy-making' usually meant pragmatic selection of 'evidence' such as best practice guidance, clinicians' and users' views of services and innovations from elsewhere. Inconclusive or negative research was unhelpful in developing policymaking plans and did not inform disinvestment decisions. Information was exchanged through conversations and stories, which were fast, flexible and suited the rapidly changing world of policymaking. Local data often trumped national or research-based evidence. Local evaluations were more useful than academic research. Commissioners are highly pragmatic and will only use information that helps them create a compelling case for action.Therefore, researchers need to start producing more useful information. To influence policymakers' decisions, researchers need to 1) learn more about local policymakers' priorities 2) develop relationships of mutual benefit 3) use verbal instead of writtencommunication 4) work with

  6. Energy policy decision making and public opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerstein, L.

    1989-09-01

    By the example of nuclear the author demonstrates the interactions of short-term fluctuations on the world energy market, energy forecasts, specific events and discussions on energy policy both within political parties and in the general public, and draws conclusions which are valid beyond the Federal Republic of Germany: An analysis of the general public's attitude towards nuclear energy shows two initial phases, i.e. euphoria and scepticism/ideology/agitation. The early eighties, then, led to a third phase - realism. Up to 1983 a consensus prevailed between the leading political parties in Germany regarding the basic energy-policy objective of minimizing the supply risk by providing for a well-balanced use of all available energy sources. The resulting attitude had a positive bearing on the public opinion: more than two thirds of the population were in favour of nuclear. In the mid-eighties, the development of nuclear was by and large completed in the Federal Republic of Germany as well as in the United States and other western industrialized countries and the capacity of nuclear power plants is considered sufficient for the years to come. In addition, abundant long-term reserves of domestic lignite and hardcoal are available: this also should have furnished a good reason to envisage calmly the issues of power supply. Instead, we are again facing emotional discussions on the acceptance of nuclear. Public opinion in the Federal Republic of Germany has changed since the Social Democrats followed the example of the Ecologists and advocated a rapid withdrawal from nuclear. In a recent poll four-fifths of the persons asked did not rule out the possibility of a major accident in a German power station. The wish to ignore today's energy supply problems by escaping into a supposedly safe but yet distant and vague future is part of every public debate. Technical and scientific issues are examined no longer in this global context. Predictions of experts and counter

  7. Optimum equipment maintenance/replacement policy. Part 2: Markov decision approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charng, T.

    1982-01-01

    Dynamic programming was utilized as an alternative optimization technique to determine an optimal policy over a given time period. According to a joint effect of the probabilistic transition of states and the sequence of decision making, the optimal policy is sought such that a set of decisions optimizes the long-run expected average cost (or profit) per unit time. Provision of an alternative measure for the expected long-run total discounted costs is also considered. A computer program based on the concept of the Markov Decision Process was developed and tested. The program code listing, the statement of a sample problem, and the computed results are presented.

  8. Reimbursement decisions in health policy--extending our understanding of the elements of decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirtz, Veronika; Cribb, Alan; Barber, Nick

    2005-09-08

    Previous theoretical and empirical work on health policy decisions about reimbursement focuses on specific rationales such as effectiveness, economic considerations and equal access for equal needs. As reimbursement decisions take place in a social and political context we propose that the analysis of decision-making should incorporate factors, which go beyond those commonly discussed. As an example we chose three health technologies (sildenafil, rivastigmine and statins) to investigate how decisions about reimbursement of medicines are made in the United Kingdom National Health Service and what factors influence these decisions. From face-to-face, in-depth interviews with a purposive sample of 20 regional and national policy makers and stakeholders we identified two dimensions of decision-making, which extend beyond the rationales conventionally cited. The first dimension relates to the role of 'subjectivity' or 'the personal' in the decisions, including personal experiences of the condition and excitement about the novelty or potential benefit of the technology-these factors affect what counts as evidence, or how evidence is interpreted, in practice. The second dimension relates to the social and political function of decision-making and broadens what counts as the relevant ends of decision-making to include such things as maintaining relationships, avoiding organisational burden, generating politically and legally defensible decisions and demonstrating the willingness to care. More importantly, we will argue that these factors should not be treated as contaminants of an otherwise rational decision-making. On the contrary we suggest that they seem relevant, reasonable and also of substantial importance in considering in decision-making. Complementing the analysis of decision-making about reimbursement by incorporating these factors could increase our understanding and potentially improve decision-making.

  9. Controlling equine influenza: policy networks and decision-making during the 2007 Australian equine influenza outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schemann, K; Gillespie, J A; Toribio, J-A L M L; Ward, M P; Dhand, N K

    2014-10-01

    Rapid, evidence-based decision-making is critical during a disease outbreak response; however, compliance by stakeholders is necessary to ensure that such decisions are effective - especially if the response depends on voluntary action. This mixed method study evaluated technical policy decision-making processes during the 2007 outbreak of equine influenza in Australia by identifying and analysing the stakeholder network involved and the factors driving policy decision-making. The study started with a review of the outbreak literature and published policy documents. This identified six policy issues regarding policy modifications or differing interpretations by different state agencies. Data on factors influencing the decision-making process for these six issues and on stakeholder interaction were collected using a pre-tested, semi-structured questionnaire. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 24 individuals representing 12 industry and government organizations. Quantitative data were analysed using social network analysis. Qualitative data were coded and patterns matched to test a pre-determined general theory using a method called theory-oriented process-tracing. Results revealed that technical policy decisions were framed by social, political, financial, strategic and operational considerations. Industry stakeholders had influence through formal pre-existing channels, yet specific gaps in stakeholder interaction were overcome by reactive alliances formed during the outbreak response but outside the established system. Overall, the crisis management system and response were seen as positive, and 75-100% of individuals interviewed were supportive of, had interest in and considered the outcome as good for the majority of policy decisions, yet only 46-75% of those interviewed considered that they had influence on these decisions. Training to increase awareness and knowledge of emergency animal diseases (EADs) and response systems will improve stakeholder

  10. Decision policy scenarios for just-in-sequence (JIS deliveries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Gaston Cedillo-Campos

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The Just-in-Sequence (JIS approach is evidencing advantages in efficiently managing variety-driven costs, and reducing the risk of disruption in sourcing, manufacturing companies and third-party logistics. This has increased its implementation in the manufacturing industry, especially in highly customized manufacturing sectors such as the automotive industry. However, despite its growing interest by manufacturers, scholarly research focused on JIS still remains limited. In this context, little has been done to study the effect of JIS on the fluidity of supply chains and processes of logistics suppliers as well as providing them with a decision making tool to optimise the sequencing of their deliveries. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to propose a genetic algorithm to evaluate different decision policy scenarios to reduce risks of supply disruptions at the final assembly line. Consequently, an algorithm considering a periodic review of the inventory that assumes a steady demand and short response times is developed and applied. Design/methodology/approach: Based on a literature review and real-life information, an abductive reasoning was performed and a case study application of the proposed algorithm conducted in the auto-industry. Findings: The results obtained from the case study indicate that the proposed genetic algorithm offers a reliable solution when facing variability in safety stocks that operate under assumptions such as: i fixed costs; ii high inventory turnover; iii scarce previous information available concerning material requirements; and iv replenishment services as core business value. Although the results are based on an auto-industry case study, they are equally applicable to other global supply chains. Originality/value: This paper is of interest to practitioners and academics alike as it complements and supports the very limited scholarly research on JIS by providing manufacturers and 3PL suppliers competing in

  11. Decision policy scenarios for just-in-sequence (JIS) deliveries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cedillo-Campos, Miguel Gaston; Ruelas, Dario Morones; Lizarraga-Lizarraga, Giovanni; Gonzalez-Feliu, Jesus; Garza-Reyes, Jose Arturo

    2017-01-01

    The Just-in-Sequence (JIS) approach is evidencing advantages in efficiently managing variety-driven costs, and reducing the risk of disruption in sourcing, manufacturing companies and third-party logistics. This has increased its implementation in the manufacturing industry, especially in highly customized manufacturing sectors such as the automotive industry. However, despite its growing interest by manufacturers, scholarly research focused on JIS still remains limited. In this context, little has been done to study the effect of JIS on the fluidity of supply chains and processes of logistics suppliers as well as providing them with a decision making tool to optimise the sequencing of their deliveries. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to propose a genetic algorithm to evaluate different decision policy scenarios to reduce risks of supply disruptions at the final assembly line. Consequently, an algorithm considering a periodic review of the inventory that assumes a steady demand and short response times is developed and applied. Design/methodology/approach: Based on a literature review and real-life information, an abductive reasoning was performed and a case study application of the proposed algorithm conducted in the auto-industry. Findings: The results obtained from the case study indicate that the proposed genetic algorithm offers a reliable solution when facing variability in safety stocks that operate under assumptions such as: i) fixed costs; ii) high inventory turnover; iii) scarce previous information available concerning material requirements; and iv) replenishment services as core business value. Although the results are based on an auto-industry case study, they are equally applicable to other global supply chains. Originality/value: This paper is of interest to practitioners and academics alike as it complements and supports the very limited scholarly research on JIS by providing manufacturers and 3PL suppliers competing in mass customized

  12. Decision policy scenarios for just-in-sequence (JIS) deliveries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cedillo-Campos, Miguel Gaston; Ruelas, Dario Morones; Lizarraga-Lizarraga, Giovanni; Gonzalez-Feliu, Jesus; Garza-Reyes, Jose Arturo

    2017-07-01

    The Just-in-Sequence (JIS) approach is evidencing advantages in efficiently managing variety-driven costs, and reducing the risk of disruption in sourcing, manufacturing companies and third-party logistics. This has increased its implementation in the manufacturing industry, especially in highly customized manufacturing sectors such as the automotive industry. However, despite its growing interest by manufacturers, scholarly research focused on JIS still remains limited. In this context, little has been done to study the effect of JIS on the fluidity of supply chains and processes of logistics suppliers as well as providing them with a decision making tool to optimise the sequencing of their deliveries. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to propose a genetic algorithm to evaluate different decision policy scenarios to reduce risks of supply disruptions at the final assembly line. Consequently, an algorithm considering a periodic review of the inventory that assumes a steady demand and short response times is developed and applied. Design/methodology/approach: Based on a literature review and real-life information, an abductive reasoning was performed and a case study application of the proposed algorithm conducted in the auto-industry. Findings: The results obtained from the case study indicate that the proposed genetic algorithm offers a reliable solution when facing variability in safety stocks that operate under assumptions such as: i) fixed costs; ii) high inventory turnover; iii) scarce previous information available concerning material requirements; and iv) replenishment services as core business value. Although the results are based on an auto-industry case study, they are equally applicable to other global supply chains. Originality/value: This paper is of interest to practitioners and academics alike as it complements and supports the very limited scholarly research on JIS by providing manufacturers and 3PL suppliers competing in mass customized

  13. UPM: unified policy-based network management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, Eddie; Saxena, Achint

    2001-07-01

    Besides providing network management to the Internet, it has become essential to offer different Quality of Service (QoS) to users. Policy-based management provides control on network routers to achieve this goal. The Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) has proposed a two-tier architecture whose implementation is based on the Common Open Policy Service (COPS) protocol and Lightweight Directory Access Protocol (LDAP). However, there are several limitations to this design such as scalability and cross-vendor hardware compatibility. To address these issues, we present a functionally enhanced multi-tier policy management architecture design in this paper. Several extensions are introduced thereby adding flexibility and scalability. In particular, an intermediate entity between the policy server and policy rule database called the Policy Enforcement Agent (PEA) is introduced. By keeping internal data in a common format, using a standard protocol, and by interpreting and translating request and decision messages from multi-vendor hardware, this agent allows a dynamic Unified Information Model throughout the architecture. We have tailor-made this unique information system to save policy rules in the directory server and allow executions of policy rules with dynamic addition of new equipment during run-time.

  14. Identification of Optimal Policies in Markov Decision Processes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sladký, Karel

    46 2010, č. 3 (2010), s. 558-570 ISSN 0023-5954. [ International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Economy and Industry. České Budějovice, 15.06.2009-18.06.2009] R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/0107; GA ČR GA402/07/1113 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : finite state Markov decision processes * discounted and average costs * elimination of suboptimal policies Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.461, year: 2010 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/E/sladky-identification of optimal policies in markov decision processes.pdf

  15. The qualitative characteristics of financial information, and managers’ accounting decisions:evidence from IFRS policy changes

    OpenAIRE

    Nobes, Christopher; Stadler, Christian

    2015-01-01

    This is the first empirical study that uses publicly available data to provide direct evidence about the role of the qualitative characteristics (QCs) of financial information in managements’ accounting decisions. Based on 40,895 hand-collected IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) policy choices on 16 topics made by 514 large firms of 10 jurisdictions in the period 2005–2011, we identify 204 reasons for policy changes. The majority of these refer to QCs from the conceptual frame...

  16. Rule-based decision making model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sirola, Miki

    1998-01-01

    A rule-based decision making model is designed in G2 environment. A theoretical and methodological frame for the model is composed and motivated. The rule-based decision making model is based on object-oriented modelling, knowledge engineering and decision theory. The idea of safety objective tree is utilized. Advanced rule-based methodologies are applied. A general decision making model 'decision element' is constructed. The strategy planning of the decision element is based on e.g. value theory and utility theory. A hypothetical process model is built to give input data for the decision element. The basic principle of the object model in decision making is division in tasks. Probability models are used in characterizing component availabilities. Bayes' theorem is used to recalculate the probability figures when new information is got. The model includes simple learning features to save the solution path. A decision analytic interpretation is given to the decision making process. (author)

  17. Anytime decision making based on unconstrained influence diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luque, Manuel; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Jensen, Finn Verner

    2016-01-01

    . This paper addresses this problem by proposing an anytime algorithm that at any time provides a qualified recommendation for the first decisions of the problem. The algorithm performs a heuristic-based search in a decision tree representation of the problem. We provide a framework for analyzing......-policy specifying the next decision given the observations made so far. However, due to the complexity of the problem, temporal constraints can force the decision maker to act before the solution algorithm has finished, and, in particular, before an optimal policy for the first decision has been computed...... the performance of the algorithm, and experiments based on this framework indicate that the proposed algorithm performs significantly better under time constraints than dynamic programming....

  18. Regime change and public policy: the political and macro-economic decision-making of Spanish energy policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lancaster, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This dissertation examines the effects of peaceful regime change on public policy-making. Spain's National Energy Plan (PEN) in particular, and energy planning in general, constitute a critical policy issue which permits direct comparison of decision-making across regime change from the Franco dictatorship to the present constitutional monarchy. The research reveals that the nature of the political coalition underlying Spain's regime change accounts of the lack of significant change in policy-making processes in this particular policy issue. This thesis develops a two-pronged argument to explain the absence of significant policy change. The first is based on a general view of the Franco regime's and the democratic system's coalitional support. In each, three major political forces are seen as central: the military, business, and labor. One of these, business, is seen as being pivotal in the regime transition. Business' pivotal position, it is argued, has permitted a defence of a national energy policy beneficial to its economic interests in energy. The argument's second part focuses on the binding constraint on policy outcomes imposed by private interests in state planning and the generally non-binding nature of oppositional party policy proposals and public opinion.

  19. Developing policy analytics for public health strategy and decisions-the Sheffield alcohol policy model framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennan, Alan; Meier, Petra; Purshouse, Robin; Rafia, Rachid; Meng, Yang; Hill-Macmanus, Daniel

    This paper sets out the development of a methodological framework for detailed evaluation of public health strategies for alcohol harm reduction to meet UK policy-makers needs. Alcohol is known to cause substantial harms, and controlling its affordability and availability are effective policy options. Analysis and synthesis of a variety of public and commercial data sources is needed to evaluate impact on consumers, health services, crime, employers and industry, so a sound evaluation of impact is important. We discuss the iterative process to engage with stakeholders, identify evidence/data and develop analytic approaches and produce a final model structure. We set out a series of steps in modelling impact including: classification and definition of population subgroups of interest, identification and definition of harms and outcomes for inclusion, classification of modifiable components of risk and their baseline values, specification of the baseline position on policy variables especially prices, estimating effects of changing policy variables on risk factors including price elasticities, quantifying risk functions relating risk factors to harms including 47 health conditions, crimes, absenteeism and unemployment, and monetary valuation. The most difficult model structuring decisions are described, as well as the final results framework used to provide decision support to national level policymakers in the UK. In the discussion we explore issues around the relationship between modelling and policy debates, valuation and scope, limitations of evidence/data, how the framework can be adapted to other countries and decisions. We reflect on the approach taken and outline ongoing plans for further development.

  20. Energy saving by firms. Decision-making, barriers and policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Groot, H.L.F.; Verhoef, E.T.; Nijkamp, P.

    2001-01-01

    Promoting investments in energy-saving technologies is an important means for achieving environmental goals. Empirical evidence on success conditions of associated policies, however, is scarce. Based on a survey among Dutch firms, this paper sets out to identify the factors that determine the investment behaviour of firms, their attitude towards various types of energy policy, and their responsiveness to changes in environmental policy in the Netherlands. On the basis of discrete choice models, this paper aims to investigate empirically, whether (and how) these strategic features vary over firm characteristics and over sectors

  1. Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? New evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sturm, Jan-Egbert; De Haan, Jakob

    Nowadays, it is widely believed that greater disclosure and clarity over policy may lead to greater predictability of central bank actions. We examine whether communication by the European Central Bank (ECB) adds information compared to the information provided by a Taylor rule model in which

  2. Merging Energy Policy Decision Support, Education, and Communication: The 'World Energy' Simulation Role-Playing Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooney-varga, J. N.; Franck, T.; Jones, A.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.

    2013-12-01

    To meet international goals for climate change mitigation and adaptation, as well as energy access and equity, there is an urgent need to explore and define energy policy paths forward. Despite this need, students, citizens, and decision-makers often hold deeply flawed mental models of the energy and climate systems. Here we describe a simulation role-playing game, World Energy, that provides an immersive learning experience in which participants can create their own path forward for global energy policy and learn about the impact of their policy choices on carbon dioxide emissions, temperature rise, energy supply mix, energy prices, and energy demand. The game puts players in the decision-making roles of advisors to the United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative (drawn from international leaders from industry, governments, intergovernmental organizations, and citizens groups) and, using a state-of-the-art decision-support simulator, asks them to negotiate a plan for global energy policy. We use the En-ROADS (Energy Rapid Overview and Decision Support) simulator, which runs on a laptop computer in <0.1 sec. En-ROADS enables users to specify many factors, including R&D-driven cost reductions in fossil fuel-based, renewable, or carbon-neutral energy technologies; taxes and subsidies for different energy sources; performance standards and energy efficiency; emissions prices; policies to address other greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, etc.); and assumptions about GDP and population. In World Energy, participants must balance climate change mitigation goals with equity, prices and access to energy, and the political feasibility of policies. Initial results indicate participants gain insights into the dynamics of the energy and climate systems and greater understanding of the potential impacts policies.

  3. Moving towards tangible decision-making tools for policy makers: Measuring and monitoring energy access provision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhanot, Jaya; Jha, Vivek

    2012-01-01

    Access to energy services has been recognised as central to achieving economic growth and sustainable development. However, almost 1.3 billion people in the world still lack access to electricity and 2.7 billion lack access to clean cooking facilities. In this backdrop, the issue of energy access is receiving more interest than ever before and this has brought to the fore, the need for a robust decision support tool for policy makers to measure the progress of energy access provision and also to provide direction for future policy making. The paper studies existing definitions of energy access and identifies the key requirements for an appropriate decision-making tool to measure and monitor energy access provision. In this context the paper assesses the strengths and weaknesses of the metrics currently being used to measure energy access in policy, as well as of contemporary monitoring and evaluation frameworks being used in other sectors. Based on these insights, a dashboard of indicators is proposed as an alternate decision support tool for policy makers to measure energy access. The paper concludes with a discussion on what is needed to operationalise this proposed framework. - Highlights: ► No one indicator or metric can successfully capture progress on energy access. ► A service oriented approach is necessary to measure energy access. ► Socio-economic and political contexts influence success of energy access policies.

  4. The Role of Decision Models in Health Care Policy: A Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    John-Baptiste, Ava; Schapira, Marilyn M; Cravens, Catherine; Chambers, James D; Neumann, Peter J; Siegel, Joanna; Lawrence, William

    2016-07-01

    In 2009, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) underwent a National Coverage Determination on computed tomography colonography (CTC) to screen for colorectal cancer. The Cancer Intervention & Surveillance Network developed decision models to inform this decision. The purpose of our study was to investigate the role of models in this decision. We performed a descriptive case study. We conducted semistructured telephone interviews with members of the CMS coverage and analysis group (CAG) and Medicare Coverage and Analysis Advisory Committee (MEDCAC) panelists. Informed by previously published literature, we developed a coding scheme to analyze interview transcripts, MEDCAC meeting transcripts, and the final CMS decision memo. Four members of the CAG and 8 MEDCAC panelists were interviewed. The total number of codes across all study documents was 772. We found evidence that decision makers believed in the adequacy of models to inform decision making. In interview transcripts, the code Models Are Adequate to Inform was more frequent than the code Models Are Inadequate to Inform (47 times v. 5). Discussion of model conceptualization dominated the MEDCAC meeting (Model Conceptualization assigned 113 times) and was frequently discussed during interviews (Model Conceptualization assigned 84 times). We also found evidence that the models helped to focus the policy discussion. Across study documents, the codes Focus on Cost, Focus on Clinical-Health Impact, and Focus on Inadequacy of Evidence Base were assigned 99, 98, and 97 times, respectively. Decision makers involved in the CTC decision believed in the adequacy of models to inform coverage decisions. The model played a role in focusing the CTC coverage policy discussion. © The Authors 2016.

  5. Addressing preference heterogeneity in public health policy by combining Cluster Analysis and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaltoft, Mette Kjer; Turner, Robin; Cunich, Michelle

    2015-01-01

    of the population in relation to the importance assigned to relevant criteria. It involves combining Cluster Analysis (CA), to generate the subgroup sets of preferences, with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), to provide the policy framework into which the clustered preferences are entered. We employ three......The use of subgroups based on biological-clinical and socio-demographic variables to deal with population heterogeneity is well-established in public policy. The use of subgroups based on preferences is rare, except when religion based, and controversial. If it were decided to treat subgroup...... preferences as valid determinants of public policy, a transparent analytical procedure is needed. In this proof of method study we show how public preferences could be incorporated into policy decisions in a way that respects both the multi-criterial nature of those decisions, and the heterogeneity...

  6. Designing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways using Many-Objective Robust Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwakkel, Jan; Haasnoot, Marjolijn

    2017-04-01

    Dealing with climate risks in water management requires confronting a wide variety of deeply uncertain factors, while navigating a many dimensional space of trade-offs amongst objectives. There is an emerging body of literature on supporting this type of decision problem, under the label of decision making under deep uncertainty. Two approaches within this literature are Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. In recent work, these approaches have been compared. One of the main conclusions of this comparison was that they are highly complementary. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making is a model based decision support approach, while Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is primarily a conceptual framework for the design of flexible strategies that can be adapted over time in response to how the future is actually unfolding. In this research we explore this complementarity in more detail. Specifically, we demonstrate how Many-Objective Robust Decision Making can be used to design adaptation pathways. We demonstrate this combined approach using a water management problem, in the Netherlands. The water level of Lake IJselmeer, the main fresh water resource of the Netherlands, is currently managed through discharge by gravity. Due to climate change, this won't be possible in the future, unless water levels are changed. Changing the water level has undesirable flood risk and spatial planning consequences. The challenge is to find promising adaptation pathways that balance objectives related to fresh water supply, flood risk, and spatial issues, while accounting for uncertain climatic and land use change. We conclude that the combination of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is particularly suited for dealing with deeply uncertain climate risks.

  7. The process of construction of evidence: An analysis of the use of indicators in two decisions of innovation policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boavida, N.; Moniz, A.; Laranja, M.

    2016-07-01

    Despite increasing calls for evidence-based policies, knowledge about the practical use of evidences remains limited. This paper studies the process of construction of evidences in decisions of innovation policy to understand how evidences were used. It analysis the use of indicators and other evidences through interviews conducted to inquire about the two decisions: an electric mobility policy and a nanotechnology laboratory. Results show indicators and other evidences were brought to decision processes according to their availability and capacity to support the different interests of the actors and the stakeholders. Their role was influenced by the particular situation of the decision makers. More importantly, the use of persuasive analytical evidences appears to be related with the adversity of the policy context. In addition, research suggests that indicators are one tool among others to foster innovation decisions. In fact, the relatively minor instrumental role of indicators suggests that indicators are mostly a complementary instrument of decision. When used relevantly, indicators can offer support to a decision. But there are other significant influences that need to be taken into account to understand the specific role indicators and other evidences play, such as the social relations of the decision makers and their emotional-intuitive decisions. (Author)

  8. Risk-based emergency decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koerte, Jens

    2003-01-01

    In the present paper we discuss how to assist critical decisions taken under complex, contingent circumstances, with a high degree of uncertainty and short time frames. In such sharp-end decision regimes, standard rule-based decision support systems do not capture the complexity of the situation. At the same time, traditional risk analysis is of little use due to variability in the specific circumstances. How then, can an organisation provide assistance to, e.g. pilots in dealing with such emergencies? A method called 'contingent risk and decision analysis' is presented, to provide decision support for decisions under variable circumstances and short available time scales. The method consists of nine steps of definition, modelling, analysis and criteria definition to be performed 'off-line' by analysts, and procedure generation to transform the analysis result into an operational decision aid. Examples of pilots' decisions in response to sudden vibration in offshore helicopter transport method are used to illustrate the approach

  9. Developing a decision support system to link health technology assessment (HTA) reports to the health system policies in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yazdani, Shahram; Jadidfard, Mohammad-Pooyan

    2017-05-01

    The recent increase of 'Health Technology Assessment' (HTA)-related activities in Iran has necessitated the clarification of policy-making process based on the HTA reports. This study aimed to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) in order to adopt evidence-informed policies regarding health technologies in Iran. The study can be classified as Health Policy and Systems Research. A core panel of seven experts conducted two separate reviews of relevant literature for: 1- Determining the potential technology-related policies. 2- Listing the criteria influencing those policy decisions. The policies and criteria were separately discussed and subsequently rated for appropriateness and necessity during two expert meetings in 2013. In the next step, The 'Discrete Choice Experiment' (DCE) method was employed to develop the DSS for the final technology-related policies. Accordingly, the core panel members independently rated the appropriateness of each policy for 30 virtual technologies based on the random values assigned to all the criteria for each technology. The obtained data for each policy were separately analysed using stepwise regression model, resulting in a minimal set of independent and statistically significant criteria contributing in the experts' judgments about the appropriateness of that policy. The obtained regression coefficients were used as the relative weights of the different levels of the final criteria of any policy statement, shaping the decision support scoring tool for each policy. The study has outlined 64 policy decisions under 7 macro policy areas concerning a health technology. Also, 34 criteria used for making those policy decisions have been organized within a portfolio. DCE, using stepwise regression, resulted in 64 scoring tools shaping the DSS for all HTA-related policies. Both the results and methodology of the study may serve as a guide for policy makers (researchers), particularly in low and middle income countries, in developing

  10. Policy, practice and decision making for zoonotic disease management: water and Cryptosporidium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Zoë; Alcock, Ruth E; Christley, Robert M; Haygarth, Philip M; Heathwaite, A Louise; Latham, Sophia M; Mort, Maggie; Oliver, David M; Pickup, Roger; Wastling, Jonathan M; Wynne, Brian

    2012-04-01

    Decision making for zoonotic disease management should be based on many forms of appropriate data and sources of evidence. However, the criteria and timing for policy response and the resulting management decisions are often altered when a disease outbreak occurs and captures full media attention. In the case of waterborne disease, such as the robust protozoa, Cryptosporidium spp, exposure can cause significant human health risks and preventing exposure by maintaining high standards of biological and chemical water quality remains a priority for water companies in the UK. Little has been documented on how knowledge and information is translated between the many stakeholders involved in the management of Cryptosporidium, which is surprising given the different drivers that have shaped management decisions. Such information, coupled with the uncertainties that surround these data is essential for improving future management strategies that minimise disease outbreaks. Here, we examine the interplay between scientific information, the media, and emergent government and company policies to examine these issues using qualitative and quantitative data relating to Cryptosporidium management decisions by a water company in the North West of England. Our results show that political and media influences are powerful drivers of management decisions if fuelled by high profile outbreaks. Furthermore, the strength of the scientific evidence is often constrained by uncertainties in the data, and in the way knowledge is translated between policy levels during established risk management procedures. In particular, under or over-estimating risk during risk assessment procedures together with uncertainty regarding risk factors within the wider environment, was found to restrict the knowledge-base for decision-making in Cryptosporidium management. Our findings highlight some key current and future challenges facing the management of such diseases that are widely applicable to other

  11. Risk Analysis Based Business Rule Enforcement for Intelligent Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasilecas, Olegas; Smaizys, Aidas; Brazinskas, Ramunas

    Intelligent information systems are acting by structured rules and do not deal with possible impact on the business environment or future consequences. That is the main reason why automated decisions based on such rules cannot take responsibility and requires involvement or approval of dedicated business people. This limits decision automation possibilities in information systems. However, business rules describe business policy and represent business logics. This can be used in intelligent information systems, together with risk assessment model to simulate real business environment and evaluate possible impact of automated decisions, to support intelligent decision automation. The chapter proposes risk and business rule model integration to provide full intelligent decision automation model used for business rule enforcement and implementation into intelligent software systems of information systems.

  12. The Hinkley Point decision: An analysis of the policy process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    In 2006, the British government launched a policy to build nuclear power reactors based on a claim that the power produced would be competitive with fossil fuel and would require no public subsidy. A decade later, it is not clear how many, if any, orders will be placed and the claims on costs and subsidies have proved false. Despite this failure to deliver, the policy is still being pursued with undiminished determination. The finance model that is now proposed is seen as a model other European countries can follow so the success or otherwise of the British nuclear programme will have implications outside the UK. This paper contends that the checks and balances that should weed out misguided policies, have failed. It argues that the most serious failure is with the civil service and its inability to provide politicians with high quality advice – truth to power. It concludes that the failure is likely to be due to the unwillingness of politicians to listen to opinions that conflict with their beliefs. Other weaknesses include the lack of energy expertise in the media, the unwillingness of the public to engage in the policy process and the impotence of Parliamentary Committees. - Highlights: •Britain's nuclear power policy is failing due to high costs and problems of finance. •This has implications for European countries who want to use the same financing model. •The continued pursuit of a failing policy is due to poor advice from civil servants. •Lack of expertise in the media and lack of public engagement have contributed. •Parliamentary processes have not provided proper critical scrutiny.

  13. THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY POLICY ON INVESTMENT DECISION IN THE EURO ZONE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentin Mihai LEOVEANU

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims to highlight and analyze the main theoretical and practical aspects regarding the relationship between investment and monetary policy, as monetary policy decisions had a greater or lesser relevance on investment decisions. First, the authors make a short review into the theoretical analysis of interconnections between money and investments, and then they try to reveal how the monetary policy influences the investment decisions through the transmission mechanism channels. The effect of monetary policy measures on investment decision is followed by the authors on three levels of analysis: the selection of investment projects, the choice of sources of financing and the measurement of risk.

  14. Operating Policies and Procedures of Computer Data-Base Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, David O.

    Speaking on the operating policies and procedures of computer data bases containing information on students, the author divides his remarks into three parts: content decisions, data base security, and user access. He offers nine recommended practices that should increase the data base's usefulness to the user community: (1) the cost of developing…

  15. A multicriteria decision making approach applied to improving maintenance policies in healthcare organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnero, María Carmen; Gómez, Andrés

    2016-04-23

    Healthcare organizations have far greater maintenance needs for their medical equipment than other organization, as many are used directly with patients. However, the literature on asset management in healthcare organizations is very limited. The aim of this research is to provide more rational application of maintenance policies, leading to an increase in quality of care. This article describes a multicriteria decision-making approach which integrates Markov chains with the multicriteria Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique (MACBETH), to facilitate the best choice of combination of maintenance policies by using the judgements of a multi-disciplinary decision group. The proposed approach takes into account the level of acceptance that a given alternative would have among professionals. It also takes into account criteria related to cost, quality of care and impact of care cover. This multicriteria approach is applied to four dialysis subsystems: patients infected with hepatitis C, infected with hepatitis B, acute and chronic; in all cases, the maintenance strategy obtained consists of applying corrective and preventive maintenance plus two reserve machines. The added value in decision-making practices from this research comes from: (i) integrating the use of Markov chains to obtain the alternatives to be assessed by a multicriteria methodology; (ii) proposing the use of MACBETH to make rational decisions on asset management in healthcare organizations; (iii) applying the multicriteria approach to select a set or combination of maintenance policies in four dialysis subsystems of a health care organization. In the multicriteria decision making approach proposed, economic criteria have been used, related to the quality of care which is desired for patients (availability), and the acceptance that each alternative would have considering the maintenance and healthcare resources which exist in the organization, with the inclusion of a

  16. Environment based innovation: policy questions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Rui Silva

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Natural resources and physical cultural resources, referred to in this paper as “Environmental Resources”, can be important assets for regional competitiveness and innovation. In recent years, these types of assets have been increasingly taken into consideration in the design and implementation of regional development strategies, as a consequence of their potential role as a source of differentiation and of new competitive advantages. However, in contrast to environmental policies, which usually focus on the protection of the environment, innovation policies and their instruments are largely shaped by, and geared towards, knowledge-based innovation.In this paper, we discuss the role played by environmental resources in the context of regional innovation policies. We begin by discussing the relationship between environmental resources and regional development, and by emphasizing some contrasting views with regard to the function of environmental resources in regional development. Then, we address the relationship between regional competitive advantages and innovation strategies. The specific issues and problems that arise whenever the aim is to attain competitive advantages through the valorisation of environmental resources constitute the core of section III. In that section, we highlight the specific characteristics of environmental resources and we discuss the applicability of the “natural resource curse” argument to the dynamics based on the valorisation of environmental resources. The reasons that justify public interventionas well as the difficulties concerning the adequate level of intervention (local / regional / national are also examined. The paper ends with some conclusions and policy implications.

  17. Simulation-based algorithms for Markov decision processes

    CERN Document Server

    Chang, Hyeong Soo; Fu, Michael C; Marcus, Steven I

    2013-01-01

    Markov decision process (MDP) models are widely used for modeling sequential decision-making problems that arise in engineering, economics, computer science, and the social sciences.  Many real-world problems modeled by MDPs have huge state and/or action spaces, giving an opening to the curse of dimensionality and so making practical solution of the resulting models intractable.  In other cases, the system of interest is too complex to allow explicit specification of some of the MDP model parameters, but simulation samples are readily available (e.g., for random transitions and costs). For these settings, various sampling and population-based algorithms have been developed to overcome the difficulties of computing an optimal solution in terms of a policy and/or value function.  Specific approaches include adaptive sampling, evolutionary policy iteration, evolutionary random policy search, and model reference adaptive search. This substantially enlarged new edition reflects the latest developments in novel ...

  18. Public Discourse in Energy Policy Decision-Making: Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Idaho Citizen; Eileen DeShazo; John Freemuth; Tina Giannini; Troy Hall; Ann Hunter; Jeffrey C. Joe; Michael Louis; Carole Nemnich; Jennie Newman; Steven J. Piet; Stephen Sorensen; Paulina Starkey; Kendelle Vogt; Patrick Wilson

    2010-08-01

    The ground is littered with projects that failed because of strong public opposition, including natural gas and coal power plants proposed in Idaho over the past several years. This joint project , of the Idaho National Laboratory, Boise State University, Idaho State University and University of Idaho has aimed to add to the tool box to reduce project risk through encouraging the public to engage in more critical thought and be more actively involved in public or social issues. Early in a project, project managers and decision-makers can talk with no one, pro and con stakeholder groups, or members of the public. Experience has shown that talking with no one outside of the project incurs high risk because opposition stakeholders have many means to stop most (if not all) energy projects. Talking with organized stakeholder groups provides some risk reduction from mutual learning, but organized groups tend not to change positions except under conditions of a negotiated settlement. Achieving a negotiated settlement may be impossible. Furthermore, opposition often arises outside pre-existing groups. Standard public polling provides some information but does not reveal underlying motivations, intensity of attitudes, etc. Improved methods are needed that probe deeper into stakeholder (organized groups and members of the public) values and beliefs/heuristics to increase the potential for change of opinions and/or out-of-box solutions. The term “heuristics” refers to the mental short-cuts, underlying beliefs, and paradigms that everyone uses to filter and interpret information, to interpret what is around us, and to guide our actions and decisions. This document is the final report of a 3-year effort to test different public discourse methods in the subject area of energy policy decision-making. We analyzed 504 mail-in surveys and 80 participants in groups on the Boise State University campus for their preference, financial support, and evaluations of eight attributes

  19. Fuzziness and fuzzy modelling in Bulgaria's energy policy decision-making dilemma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xingquan

    2006-01-01

    The decision complexity resulting from imprecision in decision variables and parameters, a major difficulty for conventional decision analysis methods, can be relevantly analysed and modelled by fuzzy logic. Bulgaria's nuclear policy decision-making process implicates such complexity of imprecise nature: stakeholders, criteria, measurement, etc. Given the suitable applicability of fuzzy logic in this case, this article tries to offer a concrete fuzzy paradigm including delimitation of decision space, quantification of imprecise variables, and, of course, parameterisation. (author)

  20. Fuzziness and fuzzy modelling in Bulgaria's energy policy decision-making dilemma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Xingquan [GREGOR, University Paris I, Pantheon-Sorbonne, Paris (France)]. E-mail: wangxingquan@gmail.com

    2006-07-01

    The decision complexity resulting from imprecision in decision variables and parameters, a major difficulty for conventional decision analysis methods, can be relevantly analysed and modelled by fuzzy logic. Bulgaria's nuclear policy decision-making process implicates such complexity of imprecise nature: stakeholders, criteria, measurement, etc. Given the suitable applicability of fuzzy logic in this case, this article tries to offer a concrete fuzzy paradigm including delimitation of decision space, quantification of imprecise variables, and, of course, parameterisation. (author)

  1. Hybrid Model Predictive Control for Sequential Decision Policies in Adaptive Behavioral Interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Yuwen; Deshpande, Sunil; Rivera, Daniel E; Downs, Danielle S; Savage, Jennifer S

    2014-06-01

    Control engineering offers a systematic and efficient method to optimize the effectiveness of individually tailored treatment and prevention policies known as adaptive or "just-in-time" behavioral interventions. The nature of these interventions requires assigning dosages at categorical levels, which has been addressed in prior work using Mixed Logical Dynamical (MLD)-based hybrid model predictive control (HMPC) schemes. However, certain requirements of adaptive behavioral interventions that involve sequential decision making have not been comprehensively explored in the literature. This paper presents an extension of the traditional MLD framework for HMPC by representing the requirements of sequential decision policies as mixed-integer linear constraints. This is accomplished with user-specified dosage sequence tables, manipulation of one input at a time, and a switching time strategy for assigning dosages at time intervals less frequent than the measurement sampling interval. A model developed for a gestational weight gain (GWG) intervention is used to illustrate the generation of these sequential decision policies and their effectiveness for implementing adaptive behavioral interventions involving multiple components.

  2. Data in Practice: Conceptualizing the Data-Based Decision-Making Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spillane, James P.

    2012-01-01

    "Data use" and "data-based decision making" are increasingly popular mantras in public policy discourses and texts. Policy makers place tremendous faith in the power of data to transform practice, but the fate of policy makers' efforts will depend in great measure on the very practice they hope to move. In most conversations…

  3. Staged decision making based on probabilistic forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booister, Nikéh; Verkade, Jan; Werner, Micha; Cranston, Michael; Cumiskey, Lydia; Zevenbergen, Chris

    2016-04-01

    Flood forecasting systems reduce, but cannot eliminate uncertainty about the future. Probabilistic forecasts explicitly show that uncertainty remains. However, as - compared to deterministic forecasts - a dimension is added ('probability' or 'likelihood'), with this added dimension decision making is made slightly more complicated. A technique of decision support is the cost-loss approach, which defines whether or not to issue a warning or implement mitigation measures (risk-based method). With the cost-loss method a warning will be issued when the ratio of the response costs to the damage reduction is less than or equal to the probability of the possible flood event. This cost-loss method is not widely used, because it motivates based on only economic values and is a technique that is relatively static (no reasoning, yes/no decision). Nevertheless it has high potential to improve risk-based decision making based on probabilistic flood forecasting because there are no other methods known that deal with probabilities in decision making. The main aim of this research was to explore the ways of making decision making based on probabilities with the cost-loss method better applicable in practice. The exploration began by identifying other situations in which decisions were taken based on uncertain forecasts or predictions. These cases spanned a range of degrees of uncertainty: from known uncertainty to deep uncertainty. Based on the types of uncertainties, concepts of dealing with situations and responses were analysed and possible applicable concepts where chosen. Out of this analysis the concepts of flexibility and robustness appeared to be fitting to the existing method. Instead of taking big decisions with bigger consequences at once, the idea is that actions and decisions are cut-up into smaller pieces and finally the decision to implement is made based on economic costs of decisions and measures and the reduced effect of flooding. The more lead-time there is in

  4. Renewable electricity production costs-A framework to assist policy-makers' decisions on price support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dinica, Valentina

    2011-01-01

    Despite recent progress, the production costs for renewable electricity remain above those for conventional power. Expectations of continuous reductions in production costs, typically underpin governments' policies for financial support. They often draw on the technology-focused versions of the Experience Curve model. This paper discusses how national-contextual factors also have a strong influence on production costs, such as geographic, infrastructural, institutional, and resource factors. As technologies mature, and as they reach significant levels of diffusion nationally, sustained increases in production costs might be recorded, due to these nationally contextual factors, poorly accounted for in policy-making decisions for price support. The paper suggests an analytical framework for a more comprehensive understanding of production costs. Based on this, it recommends that the evolution of specific cost levels and factors be monitored to locate 'sources of changes'. The paper also suggests policy instruments that governments may use to facilitate cost decreases, whenever possible. The application of the framework is illustrated for the diffusion of wind power in Spain during the past three decades. - Highlights: → Models, frameworks for policy-making on price support for renewable electricity production costs. → Policy instruments to help reduce production costs. → Limits to the influence of policies of production costs reductions.

  5. application of decision theory based criteria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-11-03

    Nov 3, 2012 ... APPLICATION OF DECISION THEORY BASED CRITERIA FOR. STRUCTURAL APPRAISAL OF A BUILDING DURING. CONSTRUCTION. C. Nwaobakata, S. Sulea. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria. Email: asamvictoryahead@yahoo.com.

  6. Decolonizing the Evidence-Based Education and Policy Movement: Revealing the Colonial Vestiges in Educational Policy, Research, and Neoliberal Reform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahjahan, Riyad Ahmed

    2011-01-01

    There is a growing body of literature discussing evidence-based education, practice, policy, and decision-making from a critical perspective. In this article, drawing on the literature and policy documents related to evidence-based education in the USA, Britain, and Canada, I join this critique and offer an anticolonial perspective. I argue that…

  7. The Final Beneficiaries are Actors Active Little and Influential in Decisions on Public Policy in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diolina Rodrigues Santiago Silva

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Public policies are government programs that directly influence the citizens' lives. In the formulation and implementation of these policies, there is the presence of political and private actors. The final beneficiaries are between different types of private actors. Some laws require the government listen to society at the time of decision-making in public policy and in national conferences and public consultations. The final beneficiaries, actual users of these public policies have to reach some mechanisms of direct participation in the formulation of these policies, but the number of participants is smaller and doesn't influence in making government decisions.

  8. Confession and Carrying into Execution of Foreign Arbitration Courts' Decisions: Reciprocity and Public Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarina, Salima A.; Nukusheva, Aigul A.; Kalmagambetov, Kassym S.; Kumysbekova, Zhanara T.; Nesterova, Elena V.

    2016-01-01

    The article contains a comparative analysis of foreign arbitration courts' decisions, ensuring the reciprocity and public policy. The aim of the study is to explore such aspects as reciprocity and public policy of arbitration courts. The result is the view of the public policy, despite its apparent irrelevance in today's Kazakhstan, which is of…

  9. Implementing risk-based policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barill, T.

    1992-01-01

    The principle of risk-based policy is that the protection of human health and the environment is best determined on a case-by-case basis, rather than by a set level of contamination. This paper discusses common techniques used by environmental professionals to effectively implement risk-based policy. Once understood, these principles can be easily applied to provide flexibility in terms of cleanup levels, operations levels and permitting/reporting requirements. Regulations at all levels currently refer to or require assessments of health risk. including RCRA Corrective Action, the Clean Air Act, the Clean Water Act and the Toxics Substances Control Act. A fundamental problem with quantitative risk assessments is that they are based on extrapolating data from a set of laboratory conditions to the real world. A set limit, while easier to handle, allows less contaminated areas to become more contaminated and may require an excessively low cleanup level for more contaminated areas. By using relative risk in assessing a site, factors such as background levels, current and future land use, and health risk can be taken into account

  10. Designing Observation and Modeling Systems to Inform Decisions and Policies on Freshwater Objectives in New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baisden, W. T.; Ellis, T.; Rissman, C.; Moore, C.; Matthews, A.

    2016-12-01

    Declines in New Zealand's freshwater quality have led to legislation - the 2014 National Policy Statement on Freshwater Management (NPS-FM) - which requires regional governments to set "objectives" and design policies accordingly. In most regions, increases in freshwater contaminants are derived largely from intensifying agriculture and come as nitrogen, phosphorous or sediment, or a combination thereof. Here, the development and application of N and O isotopes as natural tracers for nitrate is examined as a case study, in the context of a wider hierarchy of observations such as N concentrations, flow and broader hydrochemistry used for NPS-FM implementation. The analysis of N and O isotopes in nitrate provides specific information on sources and removal processes that cannot be obtained by other measurements. Yet, despite considerable development of the technical methodology and environment-specific interpretation, application of measurements has faced barriers. Many may be typical of science in a small advanced nation with a population of 4.5 million, but others are unique due to New Zealand's limited rural population base and large diversity in physical geography, as well as a unique economic reliance on highly productive pastoral agricultural systems. Seventeen different regional governments are empowered to regulate in ways consistent with local consultation and democracy within their catchment boundaries, but with limited resources to align highly technical observational data to policies and decisions, as well as supporting models. The resulting gaps in communication and technical capability combine with a diversity of approaches to pose both challenges and opportunities for development and application of hierarchical observation systems. Success appears to lie in ensuring decision frameworks can be `mapped', so that different frameworks can be compared, and the benefits of sophisticated observations understood directly in relation to influence on regional

  11. Cost-Based Decision in Public Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen Cretu

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Management decision must be based on relevant costs (costs that allow for the best measures for business management, recognized by their forecasting characteristics which records hidden or opportunity costs, social costs and outsourced costs. Correctly predicted a profit is to build costs for possible revenue. The cost is a sacrifice, resource consumption. Because decisions aimed at future activities, the management calls in this respect, detailed information on future costs, some of which are not included in accounting data collection system. The power of decision maker on costs is therefore limited.d

  12. Fair play in energy policy decisions: Procedural fairness, outcome fairness and acceptance of the decision to rebuild nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Visschers, Vivianne H.M.; Siegrist, Michael

    2012-01-01

    To raise public acceptance of new energy policies, promoting the fairness of the outcomes and of the decision-making procedure has been suggested. Very few studies have examined the role of fairness in public acceptance of rebuilding nuclear power plants. Therefore, using a large mail survey, we investigated the public’s acceptance of the decision to rebuild nuclear power plants in Switzerland by 2020. The study examined the influence of procedural fairness and outcome fairness on the acceptance of this decision, as well as other factors such as risk perception and benefit perception. Additionally, we investigated the moderating influence of general attitudes towards nuclear power on the relation between fairness and decision acceptance. Results indicated that outcome fairness strongly increased decision acceptance, along with general attitudes towards nuclear power and perceived economic benefits. Procedural fairness had only a small impact on decision acceptance. The influence of fairness on decision acceptance did not seem to depend on general nuclear attitudes. Our findings imply that, in the case of rebuilding nuclear power plants, perceived benefits and outcome fairness are important determinants of acceptance of the decision, while procedural fairness only has a limited impact. - Highlights: ► We investigated the role of fairness in the acceptance of a nuclear policy decision. ► Outcome fairness strongly influenced decision acceptance regarding nuclear power plants. ► The role of procedural fairness was relatively small in this respect. ► Also, nuclear attitudes and perceived economic benefits affected decision acceptance. ► Outcome fairness seems more relevant for decision acceptance than procedural fairness.

  13. Decision support tool to evaluate alternative policies regulating wind integration into autonomous energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zouros, N.; Contaxis, G.C.; Kabouris, J.

    2005-01-01

    Integration of wind power into autonomous electricity systems strongly depends on the specific technical characteristics of these systems; the regulations applied should take into account physical system constraints. Introduction of market rules makes the issue even more complicated since the interests of the market participants often conflict each other. In this paper, an integrated tool for the comparative assessment of alternative regulatory policies is presented along with a methodology for decision-making, based on alternative scenarios analysis. The social welfare concept is followed instead of the traditional Least Cost Planning

  14. Probabilistic Decision Tools for Determining Impacts of Agricultural Development Policy on Household Nutrition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitney, Cory W.; Lanzanova, Denis; Muchiri, Caroline; Shepherd, Keith D.; Rosenstock, Todd S.; Krawinkel, Michael; Tabuti, John R. S.; Luedeling, Eike

    2018-03-01

    Governments around the world have agreed to end hunger and food insecurity and to improve global nutrition, largely through changes to agriculture and food systems. However, they are faced with a lot of uncertainty when making policy decisions, since any agricultural changes will influence social and biophysical systems, which could yield either positive or negative nutrition outcomes. We outline a holistic probability modeling approach with Bayesian Network (BN) models for nutritional impacts resulting from agricultural development policy. The approach includes the elicitation of expert knowledge for impact model development, including sensitivity analysis and value of information calculations. It aims at a generalizable methodology that can be applied in a wide range of contexts. To showcase this approach, we develop an impact model of Vision 2040, Uganda's development strategy, which, among other objectives, seeks to transform the country's agricultural landscape from traditional systems to large-scale commercial agriculture. Model results suggest that Vision 2040 is likely to have negative outcomes for the rural livelihoods it intends to support; it may have no appreciable influence on household hunger but, by influencing preferences for and access to quality nutritional foods, may increase the prevalence of micronutrient deficiency. The results highlight the trade-offs that must be negotiated when making decisions regarding agriculture for nutrition, and the capacity of BNs to make these trade-offs explicit. The work illustrates the value of BNs for supporting evidence-based agricultural development decisions.

  15. Decision making based on emotional images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kentaro eKatahira

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The emotional outcome of a choice affects subsequent decision making. While the relationship between decision making and emotion has attracted attention, studies on emotion and decision making have been independently developed. In this study, we investigated how the emotional valence of pictures, which was stochastically contingent on participants’ choices, influenced subsequent decision making. In contrast to traditional value-based decision-making studies that used money or food as a reward, the reward value of the decision outcome, which guided the update of value for each choice, is unknown beforehand. To estimate the reward value of emotional pictures from participants’ choice data, we used reinforcement learning models that have success- fully been used in previous studies for modeling value-based decision making. Consequently, we found that the estimated reward value was asymmetric between positive and negative pictures. The negative reward value of negative pictures (relative to neutral pictures was larger in magnitude than the positive reward value of positive pictures. This asymmetry was not observed in valence for an individual picture, which was rated by the participants regarding the emotion experienced upon viewing it. These results suggest that there may be a difference between experienced emotion and the effect of the experienced emotion on subsequent behavior. Our experimental and computational paradigm provides a novel way for quantifying how and what aspects of emotional events affect human behavior. The present study is a first step toward relating a large amount of knowledge in emotion science and in taking computational approaches to value-based decision making.

  16. On the Interaction between Forecasts and Policy Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Choenni; P. Smit

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting systems require large quantities of data as input for reliable and adequate estimates. These estimates are used by policy makers to develop and implement effective and sound planning policies. In this case study, a forecasting system is presented to estimate the capacity needed in the

  17. Great Decisions 1988: Foreign Policy Issues Facing the Nation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoepli, Nancy, Ed.

    Eight selected U.S. foreign policy issues are explored in this study and discussion guide. Issue 1, "U.S. Foreign Policy: Projecting U.S. Influence," describes United States involvement in diplomacy, military power, intelligence, trade, and foreign aid since World War II. U.S.-Mexico relations are considered in issue 2, "Mexico and…

  18. Do Economic Policy Decisions affect Stock Market Development in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    For equity investors not to easily transfer their investments in response to changes in macroeconomic policies among others, the study recommends good macroeconomic management. Keywords: Stock Market Development, Macroeconomic policy, Government spending, ADRL,. Ghana, West Africa. JEL Classification: G2 ...

  19. Changing foreign policy: the Obama Administration’s decision to oust Mubarak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria do Céu Pinto Arena

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper analyses the decision of the Obama administration to redirect its foreign policy towards Egypt in the wake of the Arab Spring. It attempts to highlight the issue of how governments deal with decision-making at times of crisis, and under which circumstances they take critical decisions that lead to major shifts in their foreign policy track record. It focuses on the process that led to a reassessment of US (United States foreign policy, shifting from decades of support to the autocratic regime of Hosni Mubarak, towards backing his ouster. Specifically, the paper attempts to assess to what extent the decision to withdraw US support from a longstanding state-leader and ally in the Middle East can be seen as a foreign policy change (FPC. A relevant research question this paper pursues is: how can the withdrawal of US support to a regime considered as an ally be considered, in itself, as a radical FPC?

  20. The effect of OPEC policy decisions on oil and stock prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guidi, Marco G.D.; Russell, Alexander; Tarbert, Heather

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents evidence of the effects of OPEC policy decisions on the US and UK stock markets, as well as on oil prices, during periods of conflict and non-conflict from 1986 to 2004. The outcomes of this study are potentially valuable in assessing future strategies for OPEC policy decisions on oil production targets for its Members. This paper also adds to the strong body of evidence supporting the hypothesis that market returns are influenced by factors that affect business conditions, such as oil price shocks. The key findings are that there are asymmetric reactions to OPEC policy decisions during conflict periods for the US and UK stock markets. During conflict periods, oil markets require time to incorporate OPEC decisions. Conversely, in non-conflict periods the evidence suggests that the oil markets incorporate OPEC decisions efficiently. (Author)

  1. Risk informed decisions and regulations - STUK's policy and current practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Julin, A.; Niemalae, I.; Virolainen, R.

    2001-01-01

    Consideration of severe accidents beyond the traditional design basis, including full core melt accidents, has become an important ingredient of regulatory process in Finland. Accordingly, plant-specific level-1 and level-2 PSA studies are a regulatory requirement. These studies are being used in a living fashion both at the utilities and STUK. Plant specific living PSAs have been completed for all operating Finnish plants, including internal initiators, fires, flooding, harsh weather conditions seismic events for operation mode and internal events for low power mode. Many specific applications of the Living PSA have already been introduced but some are still waiting for further development such as Risk Informed ISI, IST and Tech Specs. Examples of safety issues, for which the PSA insights give an improved basis for decisions, are approvals of plant modifications and resolution of testing, inspection and maintenance strategies. PSA insights are also of value in assessing meaningfulness of requirements which are based on traditional engineering judgement but do not form an essential part of defence-in-depth concept. Examples of such requirements are details of safety classification and many Technical Specification requirements. STUK has recently conducted a pilot study on risk-informed ISI. The aim of the study was to explore how the plant specific PSAs could best be used for assessment of the ISI programmes. This paper discusses the findings obtained during the pilot study on risk-informed ISI of pipings. The study produced essential insights of the applied method. Furthermore, the study gave guidance to extract items for further development. Based on these results and overall experience the general suitability of the method for further application is evaluated. (author)

  2. Decision Network for Blue Green Solutions to Influence Policy Impact Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mijic, A.; Theodoropoulos, G.; El Hattab, M. H.; Brown, K.

    2017-12-01

    Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SuDS) deliver ecosystems services that can potentially yield multiple benefits to the urban environment. These benefits can be achieved through optimising SUDS' integration with the local environment and water resources, creating so-called Blue Green Solutions (BGS). The BGS paradigm, however, presents several challenges, in particular quantifying the benefits and creating the scientific evidence-base that can persuade high-level decision-makers and stakeholders to implement BGS at large scale. This work presents the development of the easily implemented and tailored-made approach that allows a robust assessment of the BGS co-benefits, and can influence the types of information that are included in policy impact assessments. The Analytic Network Process approach is used to synthesise the available evidence on the co-benefits of the BGS. The approach enables mapping the interactions between individual BGS selection criteria, and creates a platform to assess the synergetic benefits that arise from components interactions. By working with Government departments and other public and private sector stakeholders, this work has produced a simple decision criteria-based network that will enable the co-benefits and trade-offs of BGS to be quantified and integrated into UK policy appraisals.

  3. Real Decision Support for Health Insurance Policy Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Roger M

    2016-03-01

    We report on an ongoing project to develop data-driven tools to help individuals make better choices about health insurance and to better understand the range of costs to which they are exposed under different health plans. We describe a simulation tool that we developed to evaluate the likely usage and costs for an individual and family under a wide range of health service usage outcomes, but that can be tailored to specific physicians and the needs of the user and to reflect the demographics and other special attributes of the family. The simulator can accommodate, for example, specific known physician visits or planned procedures, while also generating statistically reasonable "unexpected" events like ER visits or catastrophic diagnoses. On the other hand, if a user provides only a small amount of information (e.g., just information about the family members), the simulator makes a number of generic assumptions regarding physician usage, etc., based on the age, gender, and other features of the family. Data to parameterize all of these events is informed by a combination of the information provided by the user and a series of specialized databases that we have compiled based on publicly available government data and commercial data as well as our own analysis of this initially very coarse and rigid data. To demonstrate both the subtlety of choosing a healthcare plan and the degree to which the simulator can aid in such evaluations, we present sample results using real insurance plans and two example policy shoppers with different demographics and healthcare needs.

  4. Feature Extraction Based on Decision Boundaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chulhee; Landgrebe, David A.

    1993-01-01

    In this paper, a novel approach to feature extraction for classification is proposed based directly on the decision boundaries. We note that feature extraction is equivalent to retaining informative features or eliminating redundant features; thus, the terms 'discriminantly information feature' and 'discriminantly redundant feature' are first defined relative to feature extraction for classification. Next, it is shown how discriminantly redundant features and discriminantly informative features are related to decision boundaries. A novel characteristic of the proposed method arises by noting that usually only a portion of the decision boundary is effective in discriminating between classes, and the concept of the effective decision boundary is therefore introduced. Next, a procedure to extract discriminantly informative features based on a decision boundary is proposed. The proposed feature extraction algorithm has several desirable properties: (1) It predicts the minimum number of features necessary to achieve the same classification accuracy as in the original space for a given pattern recognition problem; and (2) it finds the necessary feature vectors. The proposed algorithm does not deteriorate under the circumstances of equal class means or equal class covariances as some previous algorithms do. Experiments show that the performance of the proposed algorithm compares favorably with those of previous algorithms.

  5. French policy in the nuclear industry and last governmental decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maillard, Dominique

    1999-01-01

    In the wake of the first oil shock, France embarked on an energy policy aimed at strengthening the long-term security of its supplies. French Government has confirmed the continuation of the nuclear power option as an essential component of French energy policy and in the interests of energy self-sufficiency and environmental concerns. The Government is also ready to work actively and seriously on diversifying France's electricity supply

  6. Involving decision-makers in the transformation of results into urban sustainability policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleni Feleki

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Mind mapping tools are used to stimulate thinking about sustainability and define its significance for urban planning. Such tools are based on keywords that are identified and structured through dialogue-based procedures. The approach can be used also for switching between highlighting sectorial aspects, such as territorial management and urban design, social and economic cohesion and cross-sectorial aspects, such as sustainable mobility and energy efficiency. This paper emphasizes a structured dialogue with desicion-makers at national, regional and local levels, aimed at identifying what decision-makers really need to decide and the key barriers to the implementation of existing urban sustainability tools. This study was organized in four discrete steps. Initially, what EU urban sustainability projects can deliver (studies, methodologies, tools, policies, etc. was identified. The deliverables were evaluated against certain criteria and categorized into cross-cutting aspects (territorial management and urban design, social and economic cohesion and sectorial aspects (sustainable mobility, energy efficiency. The structured dialogue was implemented in parallel with the evaluation of the deliverables in order to match them with decision-makers’ needs, priorities and expectations. The ultimate goal was to develop and make available an operational Decision Support System (DSS for public Authorities and urban planners, which combines their needs, priorities and expectations (structured dialogue results with existing deliverables, developed within the framework of EU projects that up to now have had a low transferability and applicability rate.

  7. Health technology assessment, value-based decision making, and innovation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henshall, Chris; Schuller, Tara

    2013-10-01

    Identifying treatments that offer value and value for money is becoming increasingly important, with interest in how health technology assessment (HTA) and decision makers can take appropriate account of what is of value to patients and to society, and in the relationship between innovation and assessments of value. This study summarizes points from an Health Technology Assessment International (HTAi) Policy Forum discussion, drawing on presentations, discussions among attendees, and background papers. Various perspectives on value were considered; most place patient health at the core of value. Wider elements of value comprise other benefits for: patients; caregivers; the health and social care systems; and society. Most decision-making systems seek to take account of similar elements of value, although they are assessed and combined in different ways. Judgment in decisions remains important and cannot be replaced by mathematical approaches. There was discussion of the value of innovation and of the effects of value assessments on innovation. Discussion also included moving toward "progressive health system decision making," an ongoing process whereby evidence-based decisions on use would be made at various stages in the technology lifecycle. Five actions are identified: (i) development of a general framework for the definition and assessment of value; development by HTA/coverage bodies and regulators of (ii) disease-specific guidance and (iii) further joint scientific advice for industry on demonstrating value; (iv) development of a framework for progressive licensing, usage, and reimbursement; and (v) promoting work to better adapt HTA, coverage, and procurement approaches to medical devices.

  8. A Markov Decision Process Model for Cervical Cancer Screening Policies in Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhavan-Tabatabaei, Raha; Sánchez, Diana Marcela; Yeung, Thomas G

    2017-02-01

    Cervical cancer is the second most common cancer in women around the world, and the human papillomavirus (HPV) is universally known as the necessary agent for developing this disease. Through early detection of abnormal cells and HPV virus types, cervical cancer incidents can be reduced and disease progression prevented. We propose a finite-horizon Markov decision process model to determine the optimal screening policies for cervical cancer prevention. The optimal decision is given in terms of when and what type of screening test to be performed on a patient based on her current diagnosis, age, HPV contraction risk, and screening test results. The cost function considers the tradeoff between the cost of prevention and treatment procedures and the risk of taking no action while taking into account a cost assigned to loss of life quality in each state. We apply the model to data collected from a representative sample of 1141 affiliates at a health care provider located in Bogotá, Colombia. To track the disease incidence more effectively and avoid higher cancer rates and future costs, the optimal policies recommend more frequent colposcopies and Pap tests for women with riskier profiles.

  9. Interdependencies Between the Capital Market and the Monetary Policy Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Guni

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The declared scope of this work is to highlight the main correlations between the monetary and the capital market, including identifying the adequate objective of monetary policy which might positively influence over the offer on the capital market. The main target of the monetary market consists in the stability of the prices. The link between monetary policy and stock market is extremely important. The stock prices are sensible to economical conditions. Moreover, these prices rapidly change, thus there is a chance for a deviation from the fundamental value, with side-effects for economy.

  10. Risk and Rationality in Adolescent Decision Making: Implications for Theory, Practice, and Public Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyna, Valerie F; Farley, Frank

    2006-09-01

    Crime, smoking, drug use, alcoholism, reckless driving, and many other unhealthy patterns of behavior that play out over a lifetime often debut during adolescence. Avoiding risks or buying time can set a different lifetime pattern. Changing unhealthy behaviors in adolescence would have a broad impact on society, reducing the burdens of disease, injury, human suffering, and associated economic costs. Any program designed to prevent or change such risky behaviors should be founded on a clear idea of what is normative (what behaviors, ideally, should the program foster?), descriptive (how are adolescents making decisions in the absence of the program?), and prescriptive (which practices can realistically move adolescent decisions closer to the normative ideal?). Normatively, decision processes should be evaluated for coherence (is the thinking process nonsensical, illogical, or self-contradictory?) and correspondence (are the outcomes of the decisions positive?). Behaviors that promote positive physical and mental health outcomes in modern society can be at odds with those selected for by evolution (e.g., early procreation). Healthy behaviors may also conflict with a decision maker's goals. Adolescents' goals are more likely to maximize immediate pleasure, and strict decision analysis implies that many kinds of unhealthy behavior, such as drinking and drug use, could be deemed rational. However, based on data showing developmental changes in goals, it is important for policy to promote positive long-term outcomes rather than adolescents' short-term goals. Developmental data also suggest that greater risk aversion is generally adaptive, and that decision processes that support this aversion are more advanced than those that support risk taking. A key question is whether adolescents are developmentally competent to make decisions about risks. In principle, barring temptations with high rewards and individual differences that reduce self-control (i.e., under ideal

  11. Framework for a spatial Decision Support Tool for policy and decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carsjens, G.J.; Chen, W.

    2008-01-01

    The main challenge of developing of a spatial DST (Decision Support Tool) to support the decision making on future livestock production will not be a technical one, but instead a challenge of meeting the con-text requirements of the tool, such as the characteristics of the country-specific spatial

  12. Do economic policy decisions affect stock market development in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper finds government revenue and exchange rate reduce stock market development. A policy mix identified was that, the outcomes of government expenditure and government borrowing interest rate exert no influence on stock market development. For equity investors not to easily transfer their investments in ...

  13. Identifying and assessing the application of ecosystem services approaches in environmental policies and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Wensem, Joke; Calow, Peter; Dollacker, Annik; Maltby, Lorraine; Olander, Lydia; Tuvendal, Magnus; Van Houtven, George

    2017-01-01

    The presumption is that ecosystem services (ES) approaches provide a better basis for environmental decision making than do other approaches because they make explicit the connection between human well-being and ecosystem structures and processes. However, the existing literature does not provide a precise description of ES approaches for environmental policy and decision making, nor does it assess whether these applications will make a difference in terms of changing decisions and improving outcomes. We describe 3 criteria that can be used to identify whether and to what extent ES approaches are being applied: 1) connect impacts all the way from ecosystem changes to human well-being, 2) consider all relevant ES affected by the decision, and 3) consider and compare the changes in well-being of different stakeholders. As a demonstration, we then analyze retrospectively whether and how the criteria were met in different decision-making contexts. For this assessment, we have developed an analysis format that describes the type of policy, the relevant scales, the decisions or questions, the decision maker, and the underlying documents. This format includes a general judgment of how far the 3 ES criteria have been applied. It shows that the criteria can be applied to many different decision-making processes, ranging from the supranational to the local scale and to different parts of decision-making processes. In conclusion we suggest these criteria could be used for assessments of the extent to which ES approaches have been and should be applied, what benefits and challenges arise, and whether using ES approaches made a difference in the decision-making process, decisions made, or outcomes of those decisions. Results from such studies could inform future use and development of ES approaches, draw attention to where the greatest benefits and challenges are, and help to target integration of ES approaches into policies, where they can be most effective. Integr Environ

  14. Knowledge-based decision support by CRITIC

    OpenAIRE

    W-N Xiang

    1997-01-01

    A knowledge-based diagnostic model which helps decisionmakers learn about hidden liabilities in their plan scenarios is developed in this paper. It offers critical opinions on plan deficiencies that may otherwise remain undetected. Decisionmakers preserve the freedom to explore solutions and retain the authority of making adjustments. This approach to human - computer interface design contributes to a more advanced domain-specific decision support system.

  15. Policy processes and decision making of environmental policy in Great Britain and France. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schreiber, H.

    1991-01-01

    Research of central aspects of British environmental policy. This report concentrates on the role of the constitutional system of environmental policy, on the evaluation of a growing of 'Green Policy' in Great Britain, on the central problems of environmental policy and finally on the role of international environmental policy for Great Britain and Great Britain's role in international environmental activities. Beyond that this report contains a presentation of the state of the British environment (Pollution: Air, Water, Waste, Soil; Radioactivity and Noise). (orig.) With 205 refs., 18 tabs., 14 figs [de

  16. A condition-based maintenance policy for stochastically deteriorating systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grall, A.; Berenguer, C.; Dieulle, L.

    2002-01-01

    We focus on the analytical modeling of a condition-based inspection/replacement policy for a stochastically and continuously deteriorating single-unit system. We consider both the replacement threshold and the inspection schedule as decision variables for this maintenance problem and we propose to implement the maintenance policy using a multi-level control-limit rule. In order to assess the performance of the proposed maintenance policy and to minimize the long run expected maintenance cost per unit time, a mathematical model for the maintained system cost is derived, supported by the existence of a stationary law for the maintained system state. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the proposed policy and confirm that the maintenance cost rate on an infinite horizon can be minimized by a joint optimization of the maintenance structure thresholds, or equivalently by a joint optimization of a system replacement threshold and the aperiodic inspection schedule

  17. Intergovernmental health policy decisions in Brazil: cooperation strategies for political mediation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, Alcides S

    2007-05-01

    The advantages of established intergovernmental decision-making arenas for the implementation of health policies in decentralized settings are not well known. This paper presents the case of the joint health management committee, known as the Tripartite Committee, created to formalize intergovernmental decisions about the implementation of policies of the Brazilian Unified Health System. This paper adopts a descriptive approach for the strategic analysis of decision process among governmental actors from three federative levels, as well as of mechanisms for the negotiation of their interests in the formalization of health policy agreements. The roles and positions of governmental actors within the Tripartite Committee were analysed, together with the definition of decision agendas and strategies. The data come from normative documents and proceedings of the Tripartite Committee, interviews with their governmental actors and observations of their meetings. The distinct governmental actors from the Tripartite Committee employed cooperation strategies with permanent negotiations oriented towards interchanges and political mediation. The power of the federal Government is also pre-eminent for the constitution of decision agendas and in the shaping of negotiation processes and priorities. The Tripartite Committee formalized agreements between unequal administrative and political powers to ensure a systemic integration of governmental policies and a self-regulation of the political autonomies. There are some divergences within the governmental actors' interpretation of key policies and processes in this decision arena; the primacy of political or technical criteria as well as the applicability of laws or ad hoc norms. Although such cooperation strategies may slow down the decision-making process and render it more complicated, they also define more clearly areas of institutional responsibility and ensure a broader support from different levels of government for the

  18. Green electricity policy in the Netherlands. An analysis of policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rooijen, Sascha van; Wees, Mark van

    2003-01-01

    Over the last decades, fundamental changes in both market conditions and the national and international policy framework in the Netherlands can be observed. The Dutch Government has intervened in markets regularly, demonstrating fundamental shifts in policy and approach. This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in the Netherlands. It assesses changes in the choice of policy instruments and target groups, the role of stakeholders and offers explanations behind policy successes and failures. The following conclusions can be drawn on the policy choices: First, the objectives and targets of Dutch renewable energy policy were frequently ambiguous. Although the government emphasised the importance of investments in local capacity, imports were always (implicitly) seen as an alternative option in meeting targets. Second, for a long period the government focused on reducing investment costs and dismantling administrative barriers. Only recently has the lack of a stable investment climate been identified as a potential barrier. Third, although many stakeholders have advocated a mandatory approach, Dutch policies stimulating renewable energy have always been voluntary. Finally, the Ministry of Economic Affairs has always played a very dominant role in renewable energy policy formulation and implementation, which may explain the fact that some unfavourable market reactions to policies have not been foreseen. (author)

  19. Simulating school closure policies for cost effective pandemic decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Araz Ozgur M

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Around the globe, school closures were used sporadically to mitigate the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. However, such closures can detrimentally impact economic and social life. Methods Here, we couple a decision analytic approach with a mathematical model of influenza transmission to estimate the impact of school closures in terms of epidemiological and cost effectiveness. Our method assumes that the transmissibility and the severity of the disease are uncertain, and evaluates several closure and reopening strategies that cover a range of thresholds in school-aged prevalence (SAP and closure durations. Results Assuming a willingness to pay per quality adjusted life-year (QALY threshold equal to the US per capita GDP ($46,000, we found that the cost effectiveness of these strategies is highly dependent on the severity and on a willingness to pay per QALY. For severe pandemics, the preferred strategy couples the earliest closure trigger (0.5% SAP with the longest duration closure (24 weeks considered. For milder pandemics, the preferred strategies also involve the earliest closure trigger, but are shorter duration (12 weeks for low transmission rates and variable length for high transmission rates. Conclusions These findings highlight the importance of obtaining early estimates of pandemic severity and provide guidance to public health decision-makers for effectively tailoring school closures strategies in response to a newly emergent influenza pandemic.

  20. Simulating school closure policies for cost effective pandemic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araz, Ozgur M; Damien, Paul; Paltiel, David A; Burke, Sean; van de Geijn, Bryce; Galvani, Alison; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

    2012-06-18

    Around the globe, school closures were used sporadically to mitigate the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. However, such closures can detrimentally impact economic and social life. Here, we couple a decision analytic approach with a mathematical model of influenza transmission to estimate the impact of school closures in terms of epidemiological and cost effectiveness. Our method assumes that the transmissibility and the severity of the disease are uncertain, and evaluates several closure and reopening strategies that cover a range of thresholds in school-aged prevalence (SAP) and closure durations. Assuming a willingness to pay per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) threshold equal to the US per capita GDP ($46,000), we found that the cost effectiveness of these strategies is highly dependent on the severity and on a willingness to pay per QALY. For severe pandemics, the preferred strategy couples the earliest closure trigger (0.5% SAP) with the longest duration closure (24 weeks) considered. For milder pandemics, the preferred strategies also involve the earliest closure trigger, but are shorter duration (12 weeks for low transmission rates and variable length for high transmission rates). These findings highlight the importance of obtaining early estimates of pandemic severity and provide guidance to public health decision-makers for effectively tailoring school closures strategies in response to a newly emergent influenza pandemic.

  1. A Fuzzy Logic Enhanced Environmental Protection Education Model for Policies Decision Support in Green Community Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung-Lin Hsueh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes the promotion of environmental protection education among communities as a solution to the serious problems of high energy consumption and carbon emissions around the world. Environmental protection education has direct and lasting influences on everyone in society; therefore, it is helpful in our fight against many serious problems caused by high energy consumption. In this study, the Delphi method and the fuzzy logic theory are used to develop a quantizing assessment model based on qualitative analysis. This model can be used to assess the results and influences of community residents’ participation in environmental protection education on green community development. In addition, it can be used to provide references for governing authorities in their decision making of green community development policies.

  2. Directory Enabled Policy Based Networking; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    KELIIAA, CURTIS M.

    2001-01-01

    This report presents a discussion of directory-enabled policy-based networking with an emphasis on its role as the foundation for securely scalable enterprise networks. A directory service provides the object-oriented logical environment for interactive cyber-policy implementation. Cyber-policy implementation includes security, network management, operational process and quality of service policies. The leading network-technology vendors have invested in these technologies for secure universal connectivity that transverses Internet, extranet and intranet boundaries. Industry standards are established that provide the fundamental guidelines for directory deployment scalable to global networks. The integration of policy-based networking with directory-service technologies provides for intelligent management of the enterprise network environment as an end-to-end system of related clients, services and resources. This architecture allows logical policies to protect data, manage security and provision critical network services permitting a proactive defense-in-depth cyber-security posture. Enterprise networking imposes the consideration of supporting multiple computing platforms, sites and business-operation models. An industry-standards based approach combined with principled systems engineering in the deployment of these technologies allows these issues to be successfully addressed. This discussion is focused on a directory-based policy architecture for the heterogeneous enterprise network-computing environment and does not propose specific vendor solutions. This document is written to present practical design methodology and provide an understanding of the risks, complexities and most important, the benefits of directory-enabled policy-based networking

  3. Economics of climate policy and collective decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buergenmeier, B.; Ferrier, C.; Ingold, K.; Perret, S.; Baranzini, A.; Germond-Duret, C.; Kypreos, S.; Wokaun, A.; Rafaj, P.

    2006-01-01

    This paper explores the reasons why economic instruments of climate change are reluctantly applied and stresses the need for interdisciplinary research linking economic theory and empirical testing to deliberative political procedures. It is divided in three parts. The first one recalls the main issues in implementing Cost-Benefit Analysis such as information problems, uncertainties, discounting the future and irreversibilities. The second part shows how these issues can be treated in integrated assessment and techno-economic models and presents a case study, which shows that (1) The chosen scenario tends to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at around 550 ppm in the long run; (2) Exclusion of possibility to trade CO2 emission permits under a cap regime would increase the cost of emission abatement for OECD countries; and (3) Combining different flexibility instruments might lead to significant gains in the overall cost of climate policy. The third part presents results of a survey conducted among the main economic and environmental associations in Switzerland. The survey reveals conflicting views on economic instruments. It shows how the social acceptability of these instruments can be improved in taking explicitly into account these opposing views of special interest groups. Therefore, policy scenarios should be selected in combining techno-economic models with empirical studies about their political and normative context

  4. Green electricity policies in the Netherlands: an analysis of policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rooijen, Sascha N.M. van; Wees, Mark T. van

    2006-01-01

    Over the last decades, fundamental changes can be observed in both market conditions and the national policy framework for green electricity in the Netherlands. The Dutch Government has regularly intervened in markets, demonstrating fundamental shifts in policy and approach. This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in the Netherlands. It assesses changes in the choice of policy instruments and target groups, the role of stakeholders, and offers explanations behind policy successes and failures. Dutch green electricity policy over the last decade can be characterised roughly by three phases: in the early 1990s, the government negotiated voluntary agreements with the energy distribution sector on targets for green electricity sales, which were never met. In the second half of the 1990s, a regulatory energy tax was introduced, from which customers of green electricity were exempt. This led to a substantial increase in demand, which was largely met by green electricity imports, and did not lead to additional domestic renewable energy capacity. Finally, a change in policy has taken place recently (2003) shifting the focus from promotion of demand to the promotion of supply through a system of regulated feed-in tariffs. Despite the renewable energy policies, growth of the renewable energy market in the Netherlands has been small and targets have not been fully met. The Dutch government has not yet succeeded in substantially reducing market uncertainties and in building confidence among market parties, because the policies have not been stable and policy objectives have frequently been partly ambiguous. In addition, the influence of stakeholders in renewable energy policy making has been small which has the early acceptance and implementation of alternative policies

  5. Present supply and demand on the world uranium market and decision of the nuclear fuel cycle policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Luqing

    1994-01-01

    The present supply and demand relationship on the world uranium market due to the change of international situation in the last years is described and the falling price on the world uranium market is estimated. It is pointed out that the falling price would continue for a long time. Based on it the three different policy decisions on the back-end of nuclear fuel cycle are analysed

  6. Assessing Patient Participation in Health Policy Decision-Making in Cyprus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyriakos Souliotis

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Although the importance of patient participation in the design and evaluation of health programs and services is well-documented, there is scarcity of research with regard to patient association (PA participation in health policy decision-making processes. To this end, the present study aimed to validate further a previously developed instrument as well as to investigate the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making in Cyprus. A convenient sample of 114 patients-members of patients associations took part in the study. Participants were recruited from an umbrella organization, the Pancyprian Federation of Patient Associations and Friends (PFPA. PA participation in health policy decision-making was assessed with the Health Democracy Index (HDI, an original 8-item tool. To explore its psychometric properties, Cronbach α was computed as regards to its internal consistency, while its convergent validity was tested against a self-rated question enquiring about the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making. The findings revealed that the HDI has good internal consistency and convergent validity. Furthermore, PAs were found to participate more in consultations in health-related organizations and the Ministry of Health (MoH as well as in reforms or crucial decisions in health policy. Lower levels were documented with regard to participation in hospital boards, ethics committees in clinical trials and health technology assessment (HTA procedures. Overall, PA participation levels were found to be lower than the mid-point of the scale. Targeted interventions aiming to facilitate patients’ involvement in health policy decision-making processes and to increase its impact are greatly needed in Cyprus.

  7. Assessing Patient Participation in Health Policy Decision-Making in Cyprus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souliotis, Kyriakos; Agapidaki, Eirini; Peppou, Lily Evangelia; Tzavara, Chara; Samoutis, George; Theodorou, Mamas

    2016-06-20

    Although the importance of patient participation in the design and evaluation of health programs and services is well-documented, there is scarcity of research with regard to patient association (PA) participation in health policy decision-making processes. To this end, the present study aimed to validate further a previously developed instrument as well as to investigate the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making in Cyprus. A convenient sample of 114 patients-members of patients associations took part in the study. Participants were recruited from an umbrella organization, the Pancyprian Federation of Patient Associations and Friends (PFPA). PA participation in health policy decision-making was assessed with the Health Democracy Index (HDI), an original 8-item tool. To explore its psychometric properties, Cronbach α was computed as regards to its internal consistency, while its convergent validity was tested against a self-rated question enquiring about the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making. The findings revealed that the HDI has good internal consistency and convergent validity. Furthermore, PAs were found to participate more in consultations in health-related organizations and the Ministry of Health (MoH) as well as in reforms or crucial decisions in health policy. Lower levels were documented with regard to participation in hospital boards, ethics committees in clinical trials and health technology assessment (HTA) procedures. Overall, PA participation levels were found to be lower than the mid-point of the scale. Targeted interventions aiming to facilitate patients' involvement in health policy decision-making processes and to increase its impact are greatly needed in Cyprus. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

  8. Pilot projects in Evidence Based Policy Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vreugdenhil, H.S.I.; Ker Rault, P.A.

    2010-01-01

    In Evidence Based Policy Making, pilot projects have been recognized as important tools to develop ‘evidence’ of policy innovations. This paper presents a theoretical and empirical study of three water management pilot projects in the Rhine basin to deepen understanding of how they can contri-bute

  9. Providing Climate Policy Makers With a Strong Scientific Base (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Struzik, E.

    2009-12-01

    Scientists can and should inform public policy decisions in the Arctic. But the pace of climate change in the polar world has been occurring far more quickly than most scientists have been able to predict. This creates problems for decision-makers who recognize that difficult management decisions have to be made in matters pertaining to wildlife management, cultural integrity and economic development. With sea ice melting, glaciers receding, permafrost thawing, forest fires intensifying, and disease and invasive species rapidly moving north, the challenge for scientists to provide climate policy makers with a strong scientific base has been daunting. Clashing as this data sometimes does with the “traditional knowledge” of indigenous peoples in the north, it can also become very political. As a result the need to effectively communicate complex data is more imperative now than ever before. Here, the author describes how the work of scientists can often be misinterpreted or exploited in ways that were not intended. Examples include the inappropriate use of scientific data in decision-making on polar bears, caribou and other wildlife populations; the use of scientific data to debunk the fact that greenhouse gases are driving climate change, and the use of scientific data to position one scientist against another when there is no inherent conflict. This work will highlight the need for climate policy makers to increase support for scientists working in the Arctic, as well as illustrate why it is important to find new and more effective ways of communicating scientific data. Strategies that might be considered by granting agencies, scientists and climate policy decision-makers will also be discussed.

  10. Danish Private Sector Wage Policies and Male Retirement Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bingley, Paul; Lanot, Gauthier

    1996-01-01

    Theories of efficient labour contracts highlight the role of the employer in designing tenure-remuneration profiles which can address the problem of asymmetric information regarding worker effort. This is in contrast to most empirical studi es of retirement behaviour which have focussed on indivi......Theories of efficient labour contracts highlight the role of the employer in designing tenure-remuneration profiles which can address the problem of asymmetric information regarding worker effort. This is in contrast to most empirical studi es of retirement behaviour which have focussed...... on individual response to current and future flows of income. The novelty of our approach is to incorporate for the first time in a study of individual retirement choice, the effect of employer pay policy on retirement outcomes. This opportunity is data-driven and exploits a recently made available Danish...

  11. Effects of sex offender registration policies on juvenile justice decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letourneau, Elizabeth J; Bandyopadhyay, Dipankar; Sinha, Debajyoti; Armstrong, Kevin

    2009-06-01

    This study examines effects of sex offender registration policies on juvenile judicial decision making. Prosecutor decisions and disposition outcomes are examined across a 15-year period. Results indicate that prosecutors are significantly less likely to move forward on both serious sexual and assault offense charges after registration implementation, with the estimated effect nearly twice as large for sexual offenses. There also is increased likelihood of guilty findings for sexual and assault offenses over time. As new policies legislate harsher consequences for juvenile offenses, prosecutors become less likely to move forward on sexual and assault charges. This effect is especially strong for juvenile sexual offenders, who face reforms targeting both violent and sexual crimes. Results suggest that state and national policies requiring long-term public registration of juveniles might unintentionally decrease the likelihood of prosecution. If replicated, the results indicate a need to reform registration policies as applied to juveniles.

  12. Advances in the application of decision theory to test-based decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    This paper reviews recent research in the Netherlands on the application of decision theory to test-based decision making about personnel selection and student placement. The review is based on an earlier model proposed for the classification of decision problems, and emphasizes an empirical

  13. Energizing Government Decision-Makers with the Facts on Solar Technology, Policy, and Integration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-01-01

    The Solar Technical Assistance Team (STAT) is a network of solar technology and implementation experts who provide timely, unbiased expertise to assist policymakers and regulators in making informed decisions about solar programs and policies. Government officials can submit requests directly to the STAT for technical assistance. STAT then partners with experts in solar policy, regulation, finance, technology, and other areas to deliver accurate, up-to-date information to state and local decision makers. The STAT responds to requests on a wide range of issues -- including, but not limited to, feed-in tariffs, renewable portfolio standards, rate design, program design, workforce and economic impacts of solar on jurisdictions, and project financing.

  14. Life-oriented approach for urban policy decision-making: Surveys and applications

    OpenAIRE

    Junyi Zhang; Yubing Xiong; Minh Tu Tran

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we propose an additional approach, called life-oriented approach, for supporting urban policy decisions. The life-oriented approach argues that people's decisions on various life choices are not independent of each other and that an understanding of life choices should not be constrained by the boundary of any single discipline. People's life choices are closely linked with the quality of life (QOL), which can be roughly captured from the perspective of life domains such as res...

  15. Understanding farmers' strategic decision-making processes and the implications for biodiversity conservation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmar-Bowers, Quentin; Lane, Ruth

    2009-02-01

    The conservation of biodiversity is an important issue world wide and in Australia the maintenance of native biodiversity on farms makes an important contribution to overall conservation objectives. This paper seeks to explain Australian farmers' rationale for maintaining biodiversity on their farms for personal as opposed to business reasons by developing a decision-systems theory from in-depth interviews. This difference has implications for policy development. The decision-systems theory is divided into two main sections. The first section contains five parts. (1) A hierarchy of motivation stories, (2) the concept of suitability and availability of opportunities, (3) a hierarchy of three decision-systems, (4) the concept of personal career paths, (5) the concept of Lenses. The second section contains one part, a policy classification system called 'boxes of influence' that suggests how policy developers can use the information in the first section to develop new biodiversity conservation policy. The paper suggests that decision-systems theory could be used to shed new light on current trends in agriculture and become an important investigative tool for policy development concerning the conservation of biodiversity on farms.

  16. Exploring women's decisions about childbearing after the lifting of the one-child policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Eileen; Hesketh, Therese

    2018-01-30

    In 2016, China officially ended the 'one-child' policy permitting all couples to have two children for the first time since 1979. While the policy was relaxed due to demographic concerns, it simultaneously provided many women with a new reproductive opportunity. The goal of this study was to qualitatively understand the childbearing decision process in the new era of the two-child policy. We conducted in-depth, semi-structured interviews with 45 postpartum women at two hospitals in Zhejiang Province, China. The interviews explored women's views on the two-child policy and reproductive decisions and how they decided to have their first or second child. Most women approved of the lifting of the one-child policy; however, many were hesitant or uncertain about their own decisions to have second children. Many felt pressured to have two children for the good of, or as an obligation to, the family. However, they also felt that caring for two children was burdensome, and that they would have to sacrifice a lot in terms of freedom, energy and money. Their responses to the new reproductive opportunity highlight the complexity of childbearing decision-making in modern Chinese society, against a background of persisting traditional values.

  17. Bioenergy systems sustainability assessment & management (BIOSSAM) guidance portal for policy, decision and development support of integrated bioenergy supply interventions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Stafford, WHL

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available . There are several new bioenergy interventions (policies, projects, or programmes) that are being considered and these developments must be assessed in terms of their sustainability. Both public and private sector policy makers, decision makers, and technology...

  18. Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the annual cycle: Linking policy alternatives, landowner decisions, and biological population outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drum, Ryan G.; Ribic, Christine; Koch, Katie; Lonsdorf, Eric V.; Grant, Edward C.; Ahlering, Marissa; Barnhill, Laurel; Dailey, Thomas; Lor, Socheata; Mueller, Connie; Pavlacky, D.C.; Rideout, Catherine; Sample, David W.

    2015-01-01

    Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.

  19. Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the Annual Cycle: Linking Policy Alternatives, Landowner Decisions, and Biological Population Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drum, Ryan G.; Ribic, Christine A.; Koch, Katie; Lonsdorf, Eric; Grant, Evan; Ahlering, Marissa; Barnhill, Laurel; Dailey, Thomas; Lor, Socheata; Mueller, Connie; Pavlacky, David C.; Rideout, Catherine; Sample, David

    2015-01-01

    Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds. PMID:26569108

  20. Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the Annual Cycle: Linking Policy Alternatives, Landowner Decisions, and Biological Population Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drum, Ryan G; Ribic, Christine A; Koch, Katie; Lonsdorf, Eric; Grant, Evan; Ahlering, Marissa; Barnhill, Laurel; Dailey, Thomas; Lor, Socheata; Mueller, Connie; Pavlacky, David C; Rideout, Catherine; Sample, David

    2015-01-01

    Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.

  1. Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the Annual Cycle: Linking Policy Alternatives, Landowner Decisions, and Biological Population Outcomes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan G Drum

    Full Text Available Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.

  2. Classifiers based on optimal decision rules

    KAUST Repository

    Amin, Talha

    2013-11-25

    Based on dynamic programming approach we design algorithms for sequential optimization of exact and approximate decision rules relative to the length and coverage [3, 4]. In this paper, we use optimal rules to construct classifiers, and study two questions: (i) which rules are better from the point of view of classification-exact or approximate; and (ii) which order of optimization gives better results of classifier work: length, length+coverage, coverage, or coverage+length. Experimental results show that, on average, classifiers based on exact rules are better than classifiers based on approximate rules, and sequential optimization (length+coverage or coverage+length) is better than the ordinary optimization (length or coverage).

  3. Rough set based decision rule generation to find behavioural ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this study, we proposed rough set based decision rule generation framework to find reduct and to generate decision rules for predicting the Decision class. We conducted experiments over data of Portuguese Banking institution. From the proposed method, the dimensionality of data is reduced and decision rules are ...

  4. The Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report: A Scientific Basis for Policy and Management Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birdsey, R.; Mayes, M. A.; Reed, S.; Najjar, R.; Romero-Lankao, P.

    2017-12-01

    The second "State of the Carbon Cycle of North America Report" (SOCCR-2) includes an overview of the North American carbon budget and future projections, the consequences of changes to the carbon budget, details of the carbon budget in major terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems (including coastal ocean waters), information about anthropogenic drivers, and implications for policy and carbon management. SOCCR-2 includes new focus areas such as soil carbon, arctic and boreal ecosystems, tribal lands, and greater emphasis on aquatic systems and the role of societal drivers and decision making on the carbon cycle. In addition, methane is considered to a greater extent than before. SOCCR-2 will contribute to the next U.S. National Climate Assessment, as well as providing information to support science-based management decisions and policies that include climate change mitigation and adaptation in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. Although the Report is still in the review process, preliminary findings indicate that North America is a net emitter of carbon dioxide and methane to the atmosphere, and that natural sinks offset about 25% of emitted carbon dioxide. Combustion of fossil fuels represents the largest source of emissions, but show a decreasing trend over the last decade and a lower share (20%) of the global total compared with the previous decade. Forests, soils, grasslands, and coastal oceans comprise the largest carbon sinks, while emissions from inland waters are a significant source of carbon dioxide. The Report also documents the lateral transfers of carbon among terrestrial ecosystems and from terrestrial to near-coastal ecosystems, to complete the carbon cycle accounting. Further, the Report explores the consequences of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide on terrestrial and oceanic systems, and the capacity of these systems to continue to act as carbon sinks based on the drivers of future carbon cycle changes, including carbon-climate feedbacks

  5. Public Marketing: An Alternative Policy Decision-Making Idea for Small Cities. Community Development Research Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyers, James; And Others

    The concept of public marketing presents a strategy for the systems approach to community development that would facilitate the community decision making process via improved communication. Basic aspects of the social marketing process include: (1) product policy; (2) channels of distribution; (3) pricing (perceived price vs quality and quantity…

  6. A Decision Support System for integrated tourism development: Rethinking tourism policies and management strategies

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bousset, J. P.; Skuras, D.; Těšitel, Jan; Marsat, J. B.; Petrou, A.; Fiallo-Pantziou, E.; Kušová, Drahomíra; Bartoš, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 9, č. 4 (2007), s. 387-404 ISSN 1461-6688 Grant - others:-(XE) QLK5-CT-2000-01211-SPRITE Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : Integrated tourism * policy formulation * participatory approaches * simulation models * decision support system Subject RIV: AE - Management ; Administration

  7. The Structure of Promotion and Tenure Decisions in Institutions of Higher Education: A Policy Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lincoln, Yvonna S.

    1983-01-01

    The rationale underlying the promotion-tenure process needs to be adequately analyzed since many institutions' policies appear undifferentiated on the principles of merit and worth. Sorting the decisions, devising appropriate and open criteria, and applying those criteria consistently are advocated. Guidelines are outlined. (MLW)

  8. Presidential Effects on Federal District Court Policy Decisions: Economic Liberalism, 1960-77.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowland, C. K.; Carp, Robert A.

    1983-01-01

    The impact of appointing presidents on the economic policy decisions of their district judge appointees is discussed. Voting patterns of Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon judicial cohorts are examined. Significant differences are found among all four cohorts; the variance, however, is accounted for by the conservatism of the Nixon…

  9. Location decisions of a polluting firm and the time consistency of environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petrakis, Emmanuel; Xepapadeas, Anastasios

    2003-01-01

    This paper considers location decisions of a monopolist, who faces a tax on its emissions in the home country, under ex post that is, time consistent, and ex ante, that is precommitment, environmental policies. We show that the monopolist will relocate more often under ex post optimal emission taxes. A government which cannot commit to an ex ante emission tax and sets its tax ex post after abatement effort has been chosen, is unable to affect the monopolist's location decision, because it cannot commit to strategically reduce its tax level in the first stage. Domestic welfare is often higher under ex post emission taxes whenever the monopolist relocates under both policy regimes. Otherwise, welfare is higher under government commitment to an ex ante emission tax level. Thus, government commitment to a policy is not always welfare improving

  10. How Qualitative Research Informs Clinical and Policy Decision Making in Transplantation: A Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Allison; Morton, Rachael L; Webster, Angela C

    2016-09-01

    Patient-centered care is no longer just a buzzword. It is now widely touted as a cornerstone in delivering quality care across all fields of medicine. However, patient-centered strategies and interventions necessitate evidence about patients' decision-making processes, values, priorities, and needs. Qualitative research is particularly well suited to understanding the experience and perspective of patients, donors, clinicians, and policy makers on a wide range of transplantation-related topics including organ donation and allocation, adherence to prescribed therapy, pretransplant and posttransplant care, implementation of clinical guidelines, and doctor-patient communication. In transplantation, evidence derived from qualitative research has been integrated into strategies for shared decision-making, patient educational resources, process evaluations of trials, clinical guidelines, and policies. The aim of this article is to outline key concepts and methods used in qualitative research, guide the appraisal of qualitative studies, and assist clinicians to understand how qualitative research may inform their practice and policy.

  11. Description-based and experience-based decisions: individual analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Kudryavtsev

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available We analyze behavior in two basic classes of decision tasks: description-based and experience-based. In particular, we compare the prediction power of a number of decision learning models in both kinds of tasks. Unlike most previous studies, we focus on individual, rather than aggregate, behavioral characteristics. We carry out an experiment involving a battery of both description- and experience-based choices between two mixed binary prospects made by each of the participants, and employ a number of formal models for explaining and predicting participants' choices: Prospect theory (PT (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979; Expectancy-Valence model (EVL (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002; and three combinations of these well-established models. We document that the PT and the EVL models are best for predicting people's decisions in description- and experience-based tasks, respectively, which is not surprising as these two models are designed specially for these kinds of tasks. Furthermore, we find that models involving linear weighting of gains and losses perform better in both kinds of tasks, from the point of view of generalizability and individual parameter consistency. We therefore, conclude that, overall, when both prospects are mixed, the assumption of diminishing sensitivity does not improve models' prediction power for individual decision-makers. Finally, for some of the models' parameters, we document consistency at the individual level between description- and experience-based tasks.

  12. The productive techniques and constitutive effects of 'evidence-based policy' and 'consumer participation' discourses in health policy processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lancaster, K; Seear, K; Treloar, C; Ritter, A

    2017-03-01

    For over twenty years there have been calls for greater 'consumer' participation in health decision-making. While it is recognised by governments and other stakeholders that 'consumer' participation is desirable, barriers to meaningful involvement nonetheless remain. It has been suggested that the reifying of 'evidence-based policy' may be limiting opportunities for participation, through the way this discourse legitimates particular voices to the exclusion of others. Others have suggested that assumptions underpinning the very notion of the 'affected community' or 'consumers' as fixed and bounded 'policy publics' need to be problematised. In this paper, drawing on interviews (n = 41) with individuals closely involved in Australian drug policy discussions, we critically interrogate the productive techniques and constitutive effects of 'evidence-based policy' and 'consumer participation' discourses in the context of drug policy processes. To inform our analysis, we draw on and combine a number of critical perspectives including Foucault's concept of subjugated knowledges, the work of feminist theorists, as well as recent work regarding conceptualisations of emergent policy publics. First, we explore how the subject position of 'consumer' might be seen as enacted in the material-discursive practices of 'evidence-based policy' and 'consumer participation' in drug policy processes. Secondly, we consider the centralising power-effects of the dominant 'evidence-based policy' paradigm, and how resistance may be thought about in this context. We suggest that such interrogation has potential to recast the call for 'consumer' participation in health policy decision-making and drug policy processes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Accelerating policy decisions to adopt haemophilus influenzae type B vaccine: a global, multivariable analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica C Shearer

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Adoption of new and underutilized vaccines by national immunization programs is an essential step towards reducing child mortality. Policy decisions to adopt new vaccines in high mortality countries often lag behind decisions in high-income countries. Using the case of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib vaccine, this paper endeavors to explain these delays through the analysis of country-level economic, epidemiological, programmatic and policy-related factors, as well as the role of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI Alliance.Data for 147 countries from 1990 to 2007 were analyzed in accelerated failure time models to identify factors that are associated with the time to decision to adopt Hib vaccine. In multivariable models that control for Gross National Income, region, and burden of Hib disease, the receipt of GAVI support speeded the time to decision by a factor of 0.37 (95% CI 0.18-0.76, or 63%. The presence of two or more neighboring country adopters accelerated decisions to adopt by a factor of 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.75. For each 1% increase in vaccine price, decisions to adopt are delayed by a factor of 1.02 (95% CI 1.00-1.04. Global recommendations and local studies were not associated with time to decision.This study substantiates previous findings related to vaccine price and presents new evidence to suggest that GAVI eligibility is associated with accelerated decisions to adopt Hib vaccine. The influence of neighboring country decisions was also highly significant, suggesting that approaches to support the adoption of new vaccines should consider supply- and demand-side factors.

  14. Modeling decision making as a support tool for policy making on renewable energy development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cannemi, Marco; García-Melón, Mónica; Aragonés-Beltrán, Pablo; Gómez-Navarro, Tomás

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the findings of a study on decision making models for the analysis of capital-risk investors’ preferences on biomass power plants projects. The aim of the work is to improve the support tools for policy makers in the field of renewable energy development. Analytic Network Process (ANP) helps to better understand capital-risk investors preferences towards different kinds of biomass fueled power plants. The results of the research allow public administration to better foresee the investors’ reaction to the incentive system, or to modify the incentive system to better drive investors’ decisions. Changing the incentive system is seen as major risk by investors. Therefore, public administration must design better and longer-term incentive systems, forecasting market reactions. For that, two scenarios have been designed, one showing a typical decision making process and another proposing an improved decision making scenario. A case study conducted in Italy has revealed that ANP allows understanding how capital-risk investors interpret the situation and make decisions when investing on biomass power plants; the differences between the interests of public administrations’s and promoters’, how decision making could be influenced by adding new decision criteria, and which case would be ranked best according to the decision models. - Highlights: • We applied ANP to the investors’ preferences on biomass power plants projects. • The aim is to improve the advising tools for renewable energy policy making. • A case study has been carried out with the help of two experts. • We designed two scenarios: decision making as it is and how could it be improved. • Results prove ANP is a fruitful tool enhancing participation and transparency

  15. The effectiveness of research implementation strategies for promoting evidence-informed policy and management decisions in healthcare: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkies, Mitchell N; Bowles, Kelly-Ann; Skinner, Elizabeth H; Haas, Romi; Lane, Haylee; Haines, Terry P

    2017-11-14

    ) establishing an imperative for practice change, (2) building trust between implementation stakeholders and (3) developing a shared vision, to (4) actioning change mechanisms. This was underpinned by the (5) employment of effective communication strategies and (6) provision of resources to support change. Evidence is developing to support the use of research implementation strategies for promoting evidence-informed policy and management decisions in healthcare. The design of future implementation strategies should be based on the inter-relating factors perceived to be associated with effective strategies. This systematic review was registered with Prospero (record number: 42016032947).

  16. The effectiveness of research implementation strategies for promoting evidence-informed policy and management decisions in healthcare: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitchell N. Sarkies

    2017-11-01

    unidirectional, hierarchal flow was described from (1 establishing an imperative for practice change, (2 building trust between implementation stakeholders and (3 developing a shared vision, to (4 actioning change mechanisms. This was underpinned by the (5 employment of effective communication strategies and (6 provision of resources to support change. Conclusions Evidence is developing to support the use of research implementation strategies for promoting evidence-informed policy and management decisions in healthcare. The design of future implementation strategies should be based on the inter-relating factors perceived to be associated with effective strategies. Trial registration This systematic review was registered with Prospero (record number: 42016032947.

  17. Policy administration in tag-based authorization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Etalle, Sandro; Hinrichs, Timothy L.; Lee, Adam J.; Trivellato, Daniel; Zannone, Nicola

    2013-01-01

    Tag-Based Authorization (TBA) is a hybrid access control model that combines the ease of use of extensional access control models with the expressivity of logic-based formalisms. The main limitation of TBA is that it lacks support for policy administration. More precisely, it does not allow

  18. Applying multi-criteria decision-making to improve the waste reduction policy in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Jun-Pin; Hung, Ming-Lung; Chao, Chia-Wei; Ma, Hwong-wen

    2010-01-01

    Over the past two decades, the waste reduction problem has been a major issue in environmental protection. Both recycling and waste reduction policies have become increasingly important. As the complexity of decision-making has increased, it has become evident that more factors must be considered in the development and implementation of policies aimed at resource recycling and waste reduction. There are many studies focused on waste management excluding waste reduction. This study paid more attention to waste reduction. Social, economic, and management aspects of waste treatment policies were considered in this study. Further, a life-cycle assessment model was applied as an evaluation system for the environmental aspect. Results of both quantitative and qualitative analyses on the social, economic, and management aspects were integrated via the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method into the comprehensive decision-making support system of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM). A case study evaluating the waste reduction policy in Taoyuan County is presented to demonstrate the feasibility of this model. In the case study, reinforcement of MSW sorting was shown to be the best practice. The model in this study can be applied to other cities faced with the waste reduction problems.

  19. Practical risk-based decision making: Good decisions made efficiently

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haire, M.J. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Guthrie, V.; Walker, D. [JBF Associates, Inc., Knoxville, TN (United States); Singer, R. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States)

    1995-12-01

    The Robotics and Process Systems Division of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the Westinghouse Savannah River Company have teamed with JBF Associates, Inc. to address risk-based robotic planning. The objective of the project is to provide systematic, risk-based relative comparisons of competing alternatives for solving clean-up problems at DOE facilities. This paper presents the methodology developed, describes the software developed to efficiently apply the methodology, and discusses the results of initial applications for DOE. The paper also addresses current work in applying the approach to problems in other industries (including an example from the hydrocarbon processing industry).

  20. Policy-Based Management Natural Language Parser

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Mark

    2009-01-01

    The Policy-Based Management Natural Language Parser (PBEM) is a rules-based approach to enterprise management that can be used to automate certain management tasks. This parser simplifies the management of a given endeavor by establishing policies to deal with situations that are likely to occur. Policies are operating rules that can be referred to as a means of maintaining order, security, consistency, or other ways of successfully furthering a goal or mission. PBEM provides a way of managing configuration of network elements, applications, and processes via a set of high-level rules or business policies rather than managing individual elements, thus switching the control to a higher level. This software allows unique management rules (or commands) to be specified and applied to a cross-section of the Global Information Grid (GIG). This software embodies a parser that is capable of recognizing and understanding conversational English. Because all possible dialect variants cannot be anticipated, a unique capability was developed that parses passed on conversation intent rather than the exact way the words are used. This software can increase productivity by enabling a user to converse with the system in conversational English to define network policies. PBEM can be used in both manned and unmanned science-gathering programs. Because policy statements can be domain-independent, this software can be applied equally to a wide variety of applications.

  1. Time dependent policy-based access control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vasilikos, Panagiotis; Nielson, Flemming; Nielson, Hanne Riis

    2017-01-01

    Access control policies are essential to determine who is allowed to access data in a system without compromising the data's security. However, applications inside a distributed environment may require those policies to be dependent on the actual content of the data, the flow of information, while...... also on other attributes of the environment such as the time. In this paper, we use systems of Timed Automata to model distributed systems and we present a logic in which one can express time-dependent policies for access control. We show how a fragment of our logic can be reduced to a logic...... that current model checkers for Timed Automata such as UPPAAL can handle and we present a translator that performs this reduction. We then use our translator and UPPAAL to enforce time-dependent policy-based access control on an example application from the aerospace industry....

  2. Decision aiding in public policy generation and implementation: a multicriteria approach to evaluate territorial resilience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Franca Norese

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available A decision aid process should be the result of an interaction between analysts, decision makers and stakeholders. Decision aiding is sometimes required when the problem situation is new and a formal decision system does not exist. Its role becomes that of facilitating the Intelligence phase of a decision process. In other situations, a criticism of certain policy making processes and their use of data, which may be available in institutional databases or are required as indicators for the decision process, motivates an intervention oriented towards structure knowledge and improvements of these processes. A preliminary study, which includes modelling and application of multi-criteria methods, can clarify a complex and new situation, propose a consistent approach for the later phases of a decision process or propose a different and more effective use of the data. A case study is proposed here to describe this methodological approach in relation to the disaster resilience of municipalities near the mbrone River, in Tuscany (Italy.

  3. The Montreal Protocol treaty and its illuminating history of science-policy decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grady, C.

    2017-12-01

    The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, hailed as one of the most effective environmental treaties of all time, has a thirty year history of science-policy decision-making. The partnership between Parties to the Montreal Protocol and its technical assessment panels serve as a basis for understanding successes and evaluating stumbles of global environmental decision-making. Real-world environmental treaty negotiations can be highly time-sensitive, politically motivated, and resource constrained thus scientists and policymakers alike are often unable to confront the uncertainties associated with the multitude of choices. The science-policy relationship built within the framework of the Montreal Protocol has helped constrain uncertainty and inform policy decisions but has also highlighted the limitations of the use of scientific understanding in political decision-making. This talk will describe the evolution of the scientist-policymaker relationship over the history of the Montreal Protocol. Examples will illustrate how the Montreal Protocol's technical panels inform decisions of the country governments and will characterize different approaches pursued by different countries with a particular focus on the recently adopted Kigali Amendment. In addition, this talk will take a deeper dive with an analysis of the historic technical panel assessments on estimating financial resources necessary to enable compliance to the Montreal Protocol compared to the political financial decisions made through the Protocol's Multilateral Fund replenishment negotiation process. Finally, this talk will describe the useful lessons and challenges from these interactions and how they may be applicable in other environmental management frameworks across multiple scales under changing climatic conditions.

  4. Objective criteria ranking framework for renewable energy policy decisions in Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    K, Nwofor O.; N, Dike V.

    2016-08-01

    We present a framework that seeks to improve the objectivity of renewable energy policy decisions in Nigeria. It consists of expert ranking of resource abundance, resource efficiency and resource environmental comfort in the choice of renewable energy options for large scale power generation. The rankings are converted to a more objective function called Resource Appraisal Function (RAF) using dependence operators derived from logical relationships amongst the various criteria. The preferred option is that with the highest average RAF coupled with the least RAF variance. The method can be extended to more options, more criteria, and more opinions and can be adapted for similar decisions in education, environment and health sectors.

  5. The Felbertauern landslide of 2013: Traffic disruption, regional economic consequences and policy decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfurtscheller, Clemens; Genovese, Elisabetta

    2016-04-01

    The Felbertauern landslide of May 2013 caused the total destruction of approximately 100 meters of road including an avalanche gallery, generating several direct and indirect impacts on the regional-economy. The Felbertauern road, an important traffic arteria for the whole NUTS-3 region East-Tyrol (Austria), was totally blocked for several weeks. Short after the event, regional decision makers were hardly in need for an estimation of the regional-economic impacts of the road blockage to opt for alternatives to reopen the road. So, two weeks after the event, an analysis of the possible effects was carried out using only scattered information and statistical data. The analysis is based on a three-month interruption scenario. Retrospectively the road blockage was only two months. Due to the fact that short after the event no up-to-date data on regional-economics at necessary scales was available, impacts on tourism by analysing overnight stays, additional transportation costs and time losses for the local companies were calculated. Using these numbers, a cost-benefit-analysis was carried out for a projected bypass, a mid-term 1.5 kilometer long route as an alternative to the destroyed road. Finally, the impacts on the local companies were severe, due to additional transportation costs of approx. Euro 1.4 million and Euro 76 000 additional time costs using an alternative approach. The impacts on regional tourism were calculated with Euro 7.7 to 10.7 million - that means 0.6 to 0.8% of the total economic output of the region. The study shows the strong impact of indirect and business interruption costs on regional economies and describes the major problems faced during the study - in particular the low availability of input data. The results of consistent cost assessment are critical for decision makers who are responsible for the development of policies to prevent the impacts on societies.

  6. Policy Iteration for Continuous-Time Average Reward Markov Decision Processes in Polish Spaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quanxin Zhu

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the policy iteration algorithm (PIA for continuous-time jump Markov decision processes in general state and action spaces. The corresponding transition rates are allowed to be unbounded, and the reward rates may have neither upper nor lower bounds. The criterion that we are concerned with is expected average reward. We propose a set of conditions under which we first establish the average reward optimality equation and present the PIA. Then under two slightly different sets of conditions we show that the PIA yields the optimal (maximum reward, an average optimal stationary policy, and a solution to the average reward optimality equation.

  7. Renewable energy support policy in Spain : An analysis of the decision-making process (1994-2014)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leston, D.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, the decision-making process behind the RE support policy will be explored in order to answer the following research questions: “why has the policy-making process been revised so many times?” and “how can such a drastic change on the RE support policy be explained?” The answer is found

  8. The role of migration-specific and migration-relevant policies in migrant decision-making in transit

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuschminder - de Guerre, Katie; Koser, Khalid

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines the role of migration-specific and migration-relevant policies in migrant decision-making factors for onwards migration or stay in Greece and Turkey. In this paper we distinguish migration-specific policies from migration-relevant policies in transit and destination countries,

  9. Decision Analysis and Policy Formulation for Technology-Specific Renewable Energy Targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okioga, Irene Teshamulwa

    This study establishes a decision making procedure using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for a U.S. national renewable portfolio standard, and proposes technology-specific targets for renewable electricity generation for the country. The study prioritizes renewable energy alternatives based on a multi-perspective view: from the public, policy makers, and investors' points-of-view, and uses multiple criteria for ranking the alternatives to generate a unified prioritization scheme. During this process, it considers a 'quadruple bottom-line' approach (4P), i.e. reflecting technical "progress", social "people", economic 'profits", and environmental "planet" factors. The AHP results indicated that electricity generation from solar PV ranked highest, and biomass energy ranked lowest. A "Benefits/Cost Incentives/Mandates" (BCIM) model was developed to identify where mandates are needed, and where incentives would instead be required to bring down costs for technologies that have potential for profitable deployment. The BCIM model balances the development of less mature renewable energy technologies, without the potential for rising near-term electricity rates for consumers. It also ensures that recommended policies do not lead to growth of just one type of technology--the "highest-benefit, least-cost" technology. The model indicated that mandates would be suited for solar PV, and incentives generally for geothermal and concentrated solar power. Development for biomass energy, as a "low-cost, low-benefits" alternative was recommended at a local rather than national level, mainly due to its low resource potential values. Further, biomass energy generated from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) had the least resource potential compared to other biomass sources. The research developed methodologies and recommendations for biogas electricity targets at WWTPs, to take advantage of the waste-to-energy opportunities.

  10. Cancer beliefs and prevention policies: comparing Canadian decision-maker and general population views.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nykiforuk, Candace I J; Wild, T Cameron; Raine, Kim D

    2014-12-01

    The knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs of key policy influencers and the general public can support or hinder the development of public policies that support cancer prevention. To address gaps in knowledge concerning healthy public policy development, views on cancer causation and endorsement of policy alternatives for cancer prevention among government influencers (elected members of legislative assemblies and senior ministry bureaucrats), non-governmental influencers (school board chairs and superintendents, print media editors and reporters, and workplace presidents and senior human resource managers), and the general public were compared. Two structured surveys, one administered to a convenience sample of policy influencers (government and non-governmental) and the other to a randomly selected sample of the general public, were used. The aim of these surveys was to understand knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs regarding health promotion principles and the priority and acceptability of policy actions to prevent four behavioral risk factors for cancer (tobacco use, alcohol misuse, unhealthy eating, and physical inactivity). Surveys were administered in Alberta and Manitoba, two comparable Canadian provinces. Although all groups demonstrated higher levels of support for individualistic policies (e.g., health education campaigns) than for fiscal and legislative measures, the general public expressed consistently greater support than policy influencers for using evidence-based policies (e.g., tax incentives or subsidies for healthy behaviors). These results suggest that Canadian policy influencers may be less open that the general public to adopt healthy public policies for cancer prevention, with potential detriment to cancer rates.

  11. Validating evidence based decision making in health care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nüssler, Emil Karl; Eskildsen, Jacob Kjær; Håkonsson, Dorthe Døjbak

    of Gynecological Surgery we examine factors related to decisions to use mesh. Our results indicate that decisions to use mesh are not evidence based, and cannot be explained neither by FDA safety communications, nor by medical conditions usually assumed to predict its usage. Instead, decisions to use mesh...

  12. Risk-based decision making and risk management of European Union regional programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michalopoulos Evangelos

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a generalized method for management decision making incorporating risk assessment techniques. The risk based decision making methodology is applied to European Union expenditure programs used to implement its regional policy, such as the community support framework, community initiatives, special initiatives and other European policies. An example is presented for the development of an audit (inspection program in the region of West Macedonia, Greece, during the implementation of the 3rd Community Structural Support Framework Operational Program. The generic nature of the method permits its use in the management of similar European regional programs in Greece and other European countries. It is also applicable to many other industries interested in applying risk-based management decisions to physical or process based systems. .

  13. Political and Economic Decisions and Competition – What is the Efficient Antimonopoly Policy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irakli Lekvinadze

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the influence of economic decisions which affect the antitrust and competition support policies. Many countries provide governmental initiatives for improving antirust legislation. There is an effort to develop efficient legislation, to define market boundaries, to identify dominating companies, and to prevent cartel development. A review of the literature has shown that refined legislation does not work. Qualified and non-politicized economic decisions are required to provide fair and equitable competition in the marketplace. The discussions of various researchers are profiled on the economic issues. This article analyzes The Republic of Georgia’s 20 year unique market experiences in Eastern Europe. Recommendations have been proposed to increase the effectiveness of an anti-monopoly policy. Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4

  14. Multiple Criteria Decision Making Based on Discrete Linguistic Stochastic Variables

    OpenAIRE

    Ren, Jian; Gao, Yang; Bian, Can

    2013-01-01

    For solving the discrete linguistic stochastic multiple criteria decision making problems with incomplete information, a new decision making method based on the differences between the superiorities and the inferiorities is proposed. According to the two basic parameters which are the possible outcome and the state probability, the superior decision matrix and the inferior decision matrix of the alternative set under each criterion are first worked out. Then, by the differences between the el...

  15. Exploring qualitative research synthesis: the role of patients' perspectives in health policy design and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Helle Ploug; Draborg, Eva; Kristensen, Finn Børlum

    2011-01-01

    Health systems are placing more and more emphasis on the design and delivery of services that are focused on the patient, and there is a growing interest in patient involvement in health policy research and health technology assessment (HTA). Furthermore, there is a growing research interest in eliciting patients' views, not only on 'what works' for patients but also on the need for intervention and on factors influencing the implementation of particular health technologies, their appropriateness and acceptability. This article focuses on qualitative research synthesis in eliciting patients' perspectives. Its aim is to bring research closer to policy development and decision making, to facilitate better use of research findings for health and welfare, to generate a body of evidence, and to ensure that effective and appropriate information is used in health policy decision design. A variety of synthesizing approaches in qualitative research are explored, such as meta-synthesis, meta-summary, meta-ethnography, and meta-study, focusing especially on methodology. Meta-synthesis and meta-ethnography are probably the most frequently cited approaches in qualitative research synthesis and have perhaps the most developed methodology. The implications of these various synthesizing approaches in relation to health policy and HTA are discussed, and we suggest that meta-synthesis and meta-summary are particularly useful approaches. They have an explicit focus on 'evidence synthesis', fairly clear methodologies, and they are designed to not only present interpretations of the findings but also integrate research findings. Qualitative research synthesis enables researchers to synthesize findings from multiple qualitative studies on patients' perspectives instead of establishing new, expensive, and perhaps redundant studies that might intrude on the lives of patients. Qualitative research synthesis is highly recommended by decision makers and in health policy research and HTA. In

  16. Evaluating Software Complexity Based on Decision Coverage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa AL-HAJJAJI

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available It is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the complexity of software products. Software metrics are proposed to help show indications for quality, size, complexity, etc. of software products. In this paper, software metrics related to complexity are developed and evaluated. A dataset of many open source projects is built to assess the value of the developed metrics. Comparisons and correlations are conducted among the different tested projects. A classifica-tion is proposed to classify software code into different levels of complexity. The results showed that measuring the complexity of software products based on decision coverage gives a significant indicator of degree of complexity of those software products. However, such in-dicator is not exclusive as there are many other complexity indicators that can be measured in software products. In addition, we conducted a comparison among several available metric tools that can collect software complexity metrics. Results among those different tools were not consistent. Such comparison shows the need to have a unified standard for measuring and collecting complexity attributes.

  17. Classifiability-based omnivariate decision trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuanhong; Dong, Ming; Kothari, Ravi

    2005-11-01

    Top-down induction of decision trees is a simple and powerful method of pattern classification. In a decision tree, each node partitions the available patterns into two or more sets. New nodes are created to handle each of the resulting partitions and the process continues. A node is considered terminal if it satisfies some stopping criteria (for example, purity, i.e., all patterns at the node are from a single class). Decision trees may be univariate, linear multivariate, or nonlinear multivariate depending on whether a single attribute, a linear function of all the attributes, or a nonlinear function of all the attributes is used for the partitioning at each node of the decision tree. Though nonlinear multivariate decision trees are the most powerful, they are more susceptible to the risks of overfitting. In this paper, we propose to perform model selection at each decision node to build omnivariate decision trees. The model selection is done using a novel classifiability measure that captures the possible sources of misclassification with relative ease and is able to accurately reflect the complexity of the subproblem at each node. The proposed approach is fast and does not suffer from as high a computational burden as that incurred by typical model selection algorithms. Empirical results over 26 data sets indicate that our approach is faster and achieves better classification accuracy compared to statistical model select algorithms.

  18. Virtual Human Technology: Capturing Sex, Race, and Age Influences in Individual Pain Decision Policies

    OpenAIRE

    Hirsh, Adam T.; Alqudah, Ashraf F.; Stutts, Lauren A.; Robinson, Michael E.

    2008-01-01

    Pain assessment is subject to bias due to characteristics of the individual in pain and of the observing person. Few research studies have examined pain assessment biases in an experimental setting. The present study employs innovative virtual human technology to achieve greater experimental control. A lens model design was used to capture decision-making policies at the idiographic and nomothetic level. Seventy-five undergraduates viewed virtual humans (VH) that varied in sex, race, age, and...

  19. Asheville, North Carolina: Reducing Electricity Demand through Building Programs & Policies (City Energy: From Data to Decisions)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Office of Strategic Programs, Strategic Priorities and Impact Analysis Team

    2017-09-29

    This fact sheet "Asheville, North Carolina: Reducing Electricity Demand through Building Programs & Policies" explains how the City of Asheville used data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Cities Leading through Energy Analysis and Planning (Cities-LEAP) and the State and Local Energy Data (SLED) programs to inform its city energy planning. It is one of ten fact sheets in the "City Energy: From Data to Decisions" series.

  20. Building Energy Consumption Pattern Analysis of Detached Housing for the Policy Decision Simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Jiyoun; Lee, Seung-Eon

    2018-03-01

    The Korean government announced its plan to raise the previous reduction goal of greenhouse gas emission from buildings by 26.9% until 2020 on July 2015. Therefore, policies regarding efficiency in the building energy are implemented fast, but the level of building owners and market understanding is low in general, and the government service system which supports decision making for implementing low-energy buildings has not been provided yet. The purpose of this study is to present the design direction for establishing user customized building energy database to perform a role to provide autonomous ecosystem of low-energy buildings. In order to reduce energy consumption in buildings, it is necessary to carry out the energy performance analysis based on the characteristics of target building. By analysing about 20-thousand cases of the amount of housing energy consumption in Korea, this study suggested the real energy consumption pattern by building types. Also, the energy performance of a building could be determined by energy consumption, but previous building energy consumption analysis programs required expert knowledge and experience in program usage, so it was difficult for normal building users to use such programs. Therefore, a measure to provide proper default using the level of data which general users with no expert knowledge regarding building energy could enter easily was suggested in this study.

  1. Building a maintenance policy through a multi-criterion decision-making model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faghihinia, Elahe; Mollaverdi, Naser

    2012-08-01

    A major competitive advantage of production and service systems is establishing a proper maintenance policy. Therefore, maintenance managers should make maintenance decisions that best fit their systems. Multi-criterion decision-making methods can take into account a number of aspects associated with the competitiveness factors of a system. This paper presents a multi-criterion decision-aided maintenance model with three criteria that have more influence on decision making: reliability, maintenance cost, and maintenance downtime. The Bayesian approach has been applied to confront maintenance failure data shortage. Therefore, the model seeks to make the best compromise between these three criteria and establish replacement intervals using Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE II), integrating the Bayesian approach with regard to the preference of the decision maker to the problem. Finally, using a numerical application, the model has been illustrated, and for a visual realization and an illustrative sensitivity analysis, PROMETHEE GAIA (the visual interactive module) has been used. Use of PROMETHEE II and PROMETHEE GAIA has been made with Decision Lab software. A sensitivity analysis has been made to verify the robustness of certain parameters of the model.

  2. New institutional mechanisms to bridge the information gap between climate science and public policy decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, W.; Gulledge, J. M.

    2010-12-01

    Many decision makers lack actionable scientific information needed to prepare for future challenges associated with climate change. Although the scope and quality of available scientific information has increased dramatically in recent years, this information does not always reach - or is not presented in a form that is useful to - decision makers who need it. The producer (i.e. scientists) community tends to be stovepiped, even though consumers (i.e. decision makers) often need interdisciplinary science and analysis. Consumers, who may also be stovepiped in various agencies or subject areas, may lack familiarity with or access to these separate communities, as well as the tools or time to navigate scientific information and disciplines. Closing the communication gap between these communities could be facilitated by institutionalizing processes designed for this purpose. We recommend a variety of mainstreaming policies within the consumer community, as well as mechanisms to generate a strong demand signal that will resonate more strongly with the producer community. We also recommend institutional reforms and methods of incentivizing policy-oriented scientific analysis within the producer community. Our recommendations focus on improving information flow to national security and foreign policy decision makers, but many are relevant to public policy writ large. Recommendations for Producers 1. The scientific community should formally encourage collaborations between natural and social scientists and reward publications in interdisciplinary outlets Incentives could include research funding and honorary awards recognizing service to public policy. 2. Academic merit review should reward research grants and publications targeted at interdisciplinary and/or policy-oriented audiences. Reforms of merit review may require new policies and engaged institutional leadership. Recommendations for Consumers 1. Congress should amend Title VI of the National Defense Education Act

  3. Economic policy uncertainty, credit risks and banks’ lending decisions: Evidence from Chinese commercial banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinwei Chi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Using data for Chinese commercial banks from 2000 to 2014, this paper examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU on banks’ credit risks and lending decisions. The results reveal significantly positive connections among EPU and non-performing loan ratios, loan concentrations and the normal loan migration rate. This indicates that EPU increases banks’ credit risks and negatively influences loan size, especially for joint-equity banks. Given the increasing credit risks generated by EPU, banks can improve operational performance by reducing loan sizes. Further research indicates that the effects of EPU on banks’ credit risks and lending decisions are moderated by the marketization level, with financial depth moderating the effect on banks’ credit risks and strengthening it on lending decisions.

  4. Prioritizing Congenital Syphilis Control in South China: A Decision Analytic Model to Inform Policy Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Nicholas X.; Rydzak, Chara; Yang, Li-Gang; Vickerman, Peter; Yang, Bin; Peeling, Rosanna W.; Hawkes, Sarah; Chen, Xiang-Sheng; Tucker, Joseph D.

    2013-01-01

    Background Syphilis is a major public health problem in many regions of China, with increases in congenital syphilis (CS) cases causing concern. The Chinese Ministry of Health recently announced a comprehensive 10-y national syphilis control plan focusing on averting CS. The decision analytic model presented here quantifies the impact of the planned strategies to determine whether they are likely to meet the goals laid out in the control plan. Methods and Findings Our model incorporated data on age-stratified fertility, female adult syphilis cases, and empirical syphilis transmission rates to estimate the number of CS cases associated with prenatal syphilis infection on a yearly basis. Guangdong Province was the focus of this analysis because of the availability of high-quality demographic and public health data. Each model outcome was simulated 1,000 times to incorporate uncertainty in model inputs. The model was validated using data from a CS intervention program among 477,656 women in China. Sensitivity analyses were performed to identify which variables are likely to be most influential in achieving Chinese and international policy goals. Increasing prenatal screening coverage was the single most effective strategy for reducing CS cases. An incremental increase in prenatal screening from the base case of 57% coverage to 95% coverage was associated with 106 (95% CI: 101, 111) CS cases averted per 100,000 live births (58% decrease). The policy strategies laid out in the national plan led to an outcome that fell short of the target, while a four-pronged comprehensive syphilis control strategy consisting of increased prenatal screening coverage, increased treatment completion, earlier prenatal screening, and improved syphilis test characteristics was associated with 157 (95% CI: 154, 160) CS cases averted per 100,000 live births (85% decrease). Conclusions The Chinese national plan provides a strong foundation for syphilis control, but more comprehensive measures

  5. Modeling Based Decision Support Environment, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Phoenix Integration's vision is the creation of an intuitive human-in-the-loop engineering environment called Decision Navigator that leverages recent advances in...

  6. Management challenges at the intersection of public policy environments and strategic decision making in public hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longest, Beaufort B

    2012-01-01

    Hospitals in the United States are heavily impacted by public policies that affect them. For example, Medicare and Medicaid programs account for more than half the revenue in most of the nation's almost 5,000 community hospitals, including the almost 1,100 public hospitals controlled by state and local governments (American Hospital Association, 2012). The public hospitals are especially closely aligned with and controlled by governmental entities compared with hospitals with other kinds of sponsorship. This article addresses the management challenges at the intersection of the strategic management of public hospitals and their public policy environments. Public hospitals are complicated entities designed not only to provide health services but also in many cases to play key roles in health-related research and education and to play important general economic development roles in their communities. The multi-faceted strategic decision making in these organizations is as heavily affected by their public policy environments as by their business, demographic, technological or other external environments. Effectively managing the intersection of their public policy environments and their strategic management is indeed vital for contemporary public hospitals. This article is intended to clarify certain aspects of this intersection through a description and model of the strategic activity in public hospitals and the connection between this activity and their external environments. Specific attention is focused on the concept of public policy environments and their features. Attention is also given to how managers can assess public policy environments and incorporate the results into strategic activities.

  7. Modeling urban expansion policy scenarios using an agent-based approach for Guangzhou Metropolitan Region of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangjin Tian

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Policy makers and the human decision processes of urban planning have an impact on urban expansion. The behaviors and decision modes of regional authority, real estate developer, resident, and farmer agents and their interactions can be simulated by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP method. The driving factors are regressed with urban dynamics instead of static land-use types. Agents' behaviors and decision modes have an impact on the urban dynamic pattern by adjusting parameter weights. We integrate an agent-based model (ABM with AHP to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Three policy scenarios for baseline development, rapid development, and green land protection have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Guangzhou metropolitan region. A future policy scenario analysis can help policy makers to understand the possible results. These individuals can adjust their policies and decisions according to their different objectives.

  8. Regional Integrated Assessments in Support of Decision-making: Process, Product, and Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luers, A. L.; Hayhoe, K.

    2006-12-01

    Regional integrated climate assessments are increasingly viewed as critical for informing sound climate policy. Yet, the scientific information in many assessments often is not effectively transformed in to policies to protect the environment. Why are some assessments more effective at informing policies than others? We will provide some insight into this question by describing the lessons learned from a series of regional assessments organized by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). Working with independent experts in the global change research community, UCS has produced assessments in three regions of the US California, the Great Lakes, and the Gulf Coast. The reports from each of these assessments continue to be used by local, state and regional decision-makers in related management and policy initiatives. We attribute the success of these assessments in motivating and supporting climate-related decisions to four factors: (1) credibility, attained both through scientific peer-review and by engaging local scientific and community leaders; (2) regional relevance of assessment focus areas; (3) accessible presentation of the results to non-technical audiences; and (4) wide communication and distribution of the report to the media, the public, civic groups, and public officials.

  9. Multi-criteria decision analysis of breast cancer control in low- and middle- income countries: development of a rating tool for policy makers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venhorst, K.; Zelle, S.G.; Tromp, N.; Lauer, J.A.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to develop a rating tool for policy makers to prioritize breast cancer interventions in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs), based on a simple multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach. The definition and identification of criteria play a key

  10. The Formation of New Monetary Policies: Decisions of Central Banks on the Great Recession

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Esther Castro

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The effect that the Great Recession had on monetary policies has led to the profound reorientation of central banks’ actions from 2007 to 2013. The purpose of this work is to analyze the monetary policies applied by the main central banks, mainly the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve System of USA and the Bank of Japan, in order to raise thoughts on the guidelines that central banks should follow in the future. In the first section the bases of monetary policy before the crisis are described; in the second we explain the change in the orientation of the role of central banks during the crisis; and finally, we synthesize the bases on which the economic debate is taking place on the orientation of future monetary policies. We conclude that, in so far as the inoperativeness of transmission mechanisms still persists, monetary policies will remain in a process of change.

  11. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  12. Reconciliation of Decision-Making Heuristics Based on Decision Trees Topologies and Incomplete Fuzzy Probabilities Sets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doubravsky, Karel; Dohnal, Mirko

    2015-01-01

    Complex decision making tasks of different natures, e.g. economics, safety engineering, ecology and biology, are based on vague, sparse, partially inconsistent and subjective knowledge. Moreover, decision making economists / engineers are usually not willing to invest too much time into study of complex formal theories. They require such decisions which can be (re)checked by human like common sense reasoning. One important problem related to realistic decision making tasks are incomplete data sets required by the chosen decision making algorithm. This paper presents a relatively simple algorithm how some missing III (input information items) can be generated using mainly decision tree topologies and integrated into incomplete data sets. The algorithm is based on an easy to understand heuristics, e.g. a longer decision tree sub-path is less probable. This heuristic can solve decision problems under total ignorance, i.e. the decision tree topology is the only information available. But in a practice, isolated information items e.g. some vaguely known probabilities (e.g. fuzzy probabilities) are usually available. It means that a realistic problem is analysed under partial ignorance. The proposed algorithm reconciles topology related heuristics and additional fuzzy sets using fuzzy linear programming. The case study, represented by a tree with six lotteries and one fuzzy probability, is presented in details.

  13. Validating evidence based decision making in health care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nüssler, Emil Karl; Eskildsen, Jacob Kjær; Håkonsson, Dorthe Døjbak

    of Gynecological Surgery we examine factors related to decisions to use mesh. Our results indicate that decisions to use mesh are not evidence based, and cannot be explained neither by FDA safety communications, nor by medical conditions usually assumed to predict its usage. Instead, decisions to use mesh......Surgeons who perform prolapse surgeries face the dilemma of choosing to use mesh, with its assumed benefits, and the risks associated with mesh. In this paper, we examine whether decisions to use mesh is evidence based. Based on data of 30,398 patients from the Swedish National Quality Register...

  14. Risk-Based Decision Making for Deterioration Processes Using POMDP

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a method for risk-based decision making for maintenance of deteriorating components, based on the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Unlike most methods, the decision polices do not need to be stationary and can vary according to seasons and near the end...... of the lifetime. The approach is demonstrated through two examples, and the total expected costs are similar to those of another efficient method....

  15. Design of coordinated energy and environmental policies: use of multi-criteria decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greening, L.A.; Bernow, Steve

    2004-01-01

    Conventional economic modeling tools that depend upon one criterion to select among possible alternatives for inclusion in an energy or environmental policy have limitations. Formulation of both sets of policies involves large numbers of stakeholders with differing views and preferences. Those views and preferences cannot always be determined in advance or with certainty since many of the attributes of these policy alternatives are non-market valued. The use of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods in an integrated assessment (IA) framework offers a far better alternative to cost/benefit and similar methods. To facilitate understanding of MCDM methods, we offer a typology for this broad class of models, suggest some of the types of problems that may be analyzed with these methods, and recommend the implementation of several MCDM methods in currently evolving IA frameworks. Depending upon the choice of method from this family of methods, a wide range of attributes associated with multi-pollutant reduction and energy system development strategies, and a diversity of stakeholder preferences may be incorporated into the analysis. The resulting policy space can then provide a basis for comparison and selection of policy alternatives in a political or negotiated process

  16. Design of coordinated energy and environmental policies: use of multi-criteria decision-making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greening, L.A. [Oso Energy and Environmental Economics, Los Alamos, NM (United States); Bernow, S. [Tellus Institute Inc., Boston, MA (United States)

    2004-04-01

    Conventional economic modeling tools that depend upon one criterion to select among possible alternatives for inclusion in an energy or environmental policy have limitations. Formulation of both sets of policies involves large numbers of stakeholders with differing views and preferences. Those views and preferences cannot always be determined in advance or with certainty since many of the attributes of these policy alternatives are non-market valued. The use of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods in an integrated assessment (IA) framework offers a far better alternative to cost/benefit and similar methods. To facilitate understanding of MCDM methods, we offer a typology for this broad class o models, suggest some of the types of problems that may be analyzed with these methods, and recommend the implementation of several MCDM methods in currently evolving IA frameworks. Depending upon the choice of method from this family of methods, a wide range of attributes associated with multi-pollutant reduction and energy system development strategies, and a diversity of stakeholder preferences may be incorporated into the analysis. The resulting policy space can then provide a basis for comparison and selection of policy alternatives in a political or negotiated process. (author)

  17. Data-Based Decision Making 2.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Protheroe, Nancy

    2011-01-01

    The phrase "data-based decision making" has been used so often in discussions about school improvement efforts that it has become almost a mantra. However, it's "how" data is used that really provides the critical link between practice and school improvement. "Data-Based Decision Making 2.0" is designed to help principals take on the role of…

  18. A Web-based graphical user interface for evidence-based decision making for health care allocations in rural areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leight Margo

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The creation of successful health policy and location of resources increasingly relies on evidence-based decision-making. The development of intuitive, accessible tools to analyse, display and disseminate spatial data potentially provides the basis for sound policy and resource allocation decisions. As health services are rationalized, the development of tools such graphical user interfaces (GUIs is especially valuable at they assist decision makers in allocating resources such that the maximum number of people are served. GIS can used to develop GUIs that enable spatial decision making. Results We have created a Web-based GUI (wGUI to assist health policy makers and administrators in the Canadian province of British Columbia make well-informed decisions about the location and allocation of time-sensitive service capacities in rural regions of the province. This tool integrates datasets for existing hospitals and services, regional populations and road networks to allow users to ascertain the percentage of population in any given service catchment who are served by a specific health service, or baskets of linked services. The wGUI allows policy makers to map trauma and obstetric services against rural populations within pre-specified travel distances, illustrating service capacity by region. Conclusion The wGUI can be used by health policy makers and administrators with little or no formal GIS training to visualize multiple health resource allocation scenarios. The GUI is poised to become a critical decision-making tool especially as evidence is increasingly required for distribution of health services.

  19. The missing link: Creating science policies that facilitate the use of research in environmental and water-related decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilling, L.; Pielke, R.; Sarewitz, D.

    2005-12-01

    Despite all good intentions, it is clear that science intended to serve decision making needs often fails to achieve that purpose. The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina provides a recent, tragic example. The reasons for failures of science to support decision making are varied. Researchers studying forecasts of climate variability have found, for example, cases where information provided is not needed; information is needed but not provided; information lacks regional specificity; information is provided in an inaccessible form; poor communication exists between potential users and providers; there is a lack of trust in information or deliverers; institutional constraints prevent use of new information; and so on. Traditional science policies have institutionalized the separation of the conduct of science from its application and use. It is clear that as long as such a separation, reinforced by tradition, institution and culture, is the dominant paradigm of science policies, the efficient and effective use of science in environmental and water-related decision making will be hampered. We introduce here a research methodology for examining the decision making involved in setting science policies for research aimed at being useful. Based on the economic concept, the notion of "reconciling supply and demand" for information offers a framework for identifying missed opportunities where science policies can be adjusted to improve the usefulness of a given research portfolio. We present results from a case study focused on internal science policies and decision making within the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) projects. The RISA program aims to "expand the range of choices available to private and public communities in a region, by...enabling practical decisions...using research-based knowledge" and so provides an excellent opportunity for harvesting lessons for creating usable science.

  20. Area-based initiatives - Engines of planning and policy innovation?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agger, Annika; Norvig Larsen, Jacob

    a broader perspective on the achievements and outcomes of place-based initiatives. Many of these have functioned as important experimental seedbeds in which innovations in urban policy and organization of public decision-making have been tested. The papers seeks to clarify whether, in the long run, change......Area-based initiatives addressing issues of physical degradation, social exclusion, economic deprivation and lack of cohesion in urban regeneration areas have been promoted widely across Europe in the past two or three decades. Following this many evaluation studies have been completed....... Nevertheless, there is still considerable uncertainty as to the most important outcomes of place-based initiatives. Evaluations have mostly focussed on direct quantitative socio-economic indicators. These have often been quite insignificant, while other effects have been largely neglected. This paper proposes...

  1. Robust Allocation of Reserve Policies for a Multiple-Cell Based Power System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Junjie; Lan, Tian; Heussen, Kai

    2018-01-01

    This paper applies a robust optimization technique for coordinating reserve allocations in multiple-cell based power systems. The linear decision rules (LDR)-based policies were implemented to achieve the reserve robustness, and consist of a nominal power schedule with a series of linear modifica...... in real time operation to make a trade off....

  2. Parallel constraint satisfaction in memory-based decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glöckner, Andreas; Hodges, Sara D

    2011-01-01

    Three studies sought to investigate decision strategies in memory-based decisions and to test the predictions of the parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS) model for decision making (Glöckner & Betsch, 2008). Time pressure was manipulated and the model was compared against simple heuristics (take the best and equal weight) and a weighted additive strategy. From PCS we predicted that fast intuitive decision making is based on compensatory information integration and that decision time increases and confidence decreases with increasing inconsistency in the decision task. In line with these predictions we observed a predominant usage of compensatory strategies under all time-pressure conditions and even with decision times as short as 1.7 s. For a substantial number of participants, choices and decision times were best explained by PCS, but there was also evidence for use of simple heuristics. The time-pressure manipulation did not significantly affect decision strategies. Overall, the results highlight intuitive, automatic processes in decision making and support the idea that human information-processing capabilities are less severely bounded than often assumed.

  3. Science-based natural resource management decisions: what are they?

    Science.gov (United States)

    T.J. Mills; T.M. Quigley; F.J. Everest

    2001-01-01

    While many people interested in natural resources management propose science-based decisions, it is not clear what “science-based” means. Science-based decisions are those that result from the full and complete consideration of the relevant science information. We offer five guidelines to focus the scientist’s contributions to science-based decisionmaking and use the...

  4. CUDT: A CUDA Based Decision Tree Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Win-Tsung Lo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision tree is one of the famous classification methods in data mining. Many researches have been proposed, which were focusing on improving the performance of decision tree. However, those algorithms are developed and run on traditional distributed systems. Obviously the latency could not be improved while processing huge data generated by ubiquitous sensing node in the era without new technology help. In order to improve data processing latency in huge data mining, in this paper, we design and implement a new parallelized decision tree algorithm on a CUDA (compute unified device architecture, which is a GPGPU solution provided by NVIDIA. In the proposed system, CPU is responsible for flow control while the GPU is responsible for computation. We have conducted many experiments to evaluate system performance of CUDT and made a comparison with traditional CPU version. The results show that CUDT is 5∼55 times faster than Weka-j48 and is 18 times speedup than SPRINT for large data set.

  5. Deciding Who Decides Questions at the Intersection of School Finance Reform Litigation and Standards-Based Accountability Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Superfine, Benjamin Michael

    2009-01-01

    Courts hearing school finance reform cases have recently begun to consider several issues related to standards-based accountability policies. This convergence of school finance reform litigation and standards-based accountability policies represents a chance for the courts to reallocate decision-making authority for each type of reform across the…

  6. The power of science economic research and European decision-making : the case of energy and environment policies

    CERN Document Server

    Rossetti di Valdalbero, Domenico

    2010-01-01

    This book highlights the interaction between science and politics and between research in economics and European Union policy-making. It focuses on the use of Quantitative tools, Top-down and Bottom-up models in up-stream European decision-making process through five EU policy case studies: energy taxation, climate change, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and internalisation of external costs.

  7. Urineschool: A Study of the Impact of the Earls Decision on High School Random Drug Testing Policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlon, Cynthia Kelly

    2003-01-01

    Examines impact of Supreme Court's 2002 decision in "Board of Education v. Earls" on high school random drug-testing policies and practices. Court held that random drug-testing policy at Tecumseh, Oklahoma, school district did not violate students' Fourth Amendment right against unreasonable searches. (Contains 46 references.) (PKP)

  8. Tools to Help Society in Decision Making: Legal and Policy Trends. Proceedings of a Topical Session

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vari, Anna; Caddy, Joanne; ); Kotra, Janet P.; Pancher, Bertrand; Tromans, Stephan

    2009-01-01

    As part of its programme of work the OECD/NEA Forum on Stakeholder Confidence continues to investigate the theme of 'Tools and Processes to Help Society in Decision Making'. Following a presentation in June 2007 of environmental law and its implications for stakeholder involvement in decision making, the FSC decided to take a look at a variety of legal and policy issues. In particular, interest was expressed in seeing how law and policy may define which stakeholders must be consulted or engaged, and to consider when and whether that is helpful. A topical session was held on June 5, 2008 during the FSC's ninth regular meeting. Case studies were presented from the US, the UK, and France. An international survey of means for open and inclusive policy making was presented by the OECD Government directorate. The results of a questionnaire filled by FSC members served as the basis of the introductory presentation. Two sub-groups retired to discuss the material and a Rapporteur from each delivered feedback in plenary. These proceedings include a summary of the findings and discussions (Anna Vari), and the slides (some with accompanying text) provided for each case study: 1 - Open and Inclusive Policy Making: Emerging Practice in OECD Countries (Joanne Caddy); 2 - Deciding Whether to Authorized Construction at Yucca Mountain Explaining NRC's Process (Janet P. Kotra); 3 - Rights and Obligations under International Conventions (Stephan Tromans); 4 - Setting Criteria for the Representativeness of NGO/CSOs: Report on Hearings at the Request of France's Prime Minister (Bertrand Pancher)

  9. A decision support system-based procedure for evaluation and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    with an overview of the web-based Decision Support System (DSS) developed to facilitate its wide adop- tion. The DSS and ... Assessment; management, participation; indicators; decision support systems, protected area management. J. Earth Syst. Sci. ..... tors, which are increasingly technical, require use of software that is ...

  10. Feasibility of web-based decision aids in neurological patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Til, Janine Astrid; Drossaert, Constance H.C.; Renzenbrink, Gerbert J.; Snoek, Govert J.; Dijkstra, Evelien; Stiggelbout, Anne M.; IJzerman, Maarten Joost

    2010-01-01

    Decision aids (DAs) may be helpful in improving patients' participation in medical decision-making. We investigated the potential for web-based DAs in a rehabilitation population. Two self-administered DAs focused on the treatment of acquired ankle-foot impairment in stroke and the treatment of

  11. Multiple Criteria Decision Making Based on Discrete Linguistic Stochastic Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Ren

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available For solving the discrete linguistic stochastic multiple criteria decision making problems with incomplete information, a new decision making method based on the differences between the superiorities and the inferiorities is proposed. According to the two basic parameters which are the possible outcome and the state probability, the superior decision matrix and the inferior decision matrix of the alternative set under each criterion are first worked out. Then, by the differences between the elements on the appropriate locations of these matrices, the corresponding dominant decision matrices are formed. Subsequently, with the help of the weight vector of the criterion set, the weighted integrated dominant decision matrix of the alternative set is built. Consequently, the weighted integrated dominant indices' sum of each alternative is calculated. Thus, the rank of the alternatives comes out. Finally, a numerical example is given. The result shows the superiority of the method.

  12. Impact of the decision-making environment on policy responses to road worker fatality in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pankratz, Curt J

    2018-01-22

    Fatal accidents often lead to policy changes. However, the existing decision-making environment is critical to policy responses. This study compares the policy responses to similar events in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The key question explores the extent to which the policy decisions in each province differ despite the similarity of the events. Key documents were examined. Provincial court rulings, workplace health & safety incident investigation reports, court transcripts and police reports were used to compare resulting policy changes as well as the socio-political and economic decision-making context. Relevant clauses in resulting legislation were also compared to assess the specific changes that were made in each province. In each province, a young, female highway construction worker was killed. However, the provinces responded in very different ways. In Saskatchewan, the Premier called for recommendations to improve worker safety, initiating an in-depth governmental study and the development of a broad safety strategy. In Manitoba, political and social pressures shifted the decision-making environment and contributed to the rushed passing of a bill focused on traffic fine increases that resulted in record-breaking traffic fine revenue while failing to include broader safety measures. Different decision-making contexts can lead to vastly different policy outcomes even when responding to very similar events. Key differences included time constraints, access to information and the nature of the political process invoked.

  13. Constructing regional advantage: platform policies based on related variety and differentiated knowledge bases.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asheim, B.T.; Boschma, R.A.; Cooke, P.

    2011-01-01

    Constructing regional advantage: platform policies based on related variety and differentiated knowledge bases, Regional Studies. This paper presents a regional innovation policy model based on the idea of constructing regional advantage. This policy model brings together concepts like related

  14. Politics of oil in Venezuela: A decision-making analysis of PDVSA's internationalisation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baena, Cesar E.

    The high degree of international vertical integration achieved by the Venezuelan state oil enterprise, Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA), has placed it among the most important oil multinationals (MNs). The policy of creating downstream outlets through the establishment of foreign direct investments (FDIs) in the form of refinery assets was given the term of 'internationalisation'. By analysing PDVSA's internationalisation policy, the thesis explores the difficulties encountered by a major state-owned enterprise (SOE) from a developing country in its efforts to grow beyond national borders. The study focuses on the impact of democratic bargaining on the process of oil policymaking in Venezuela, stressing the constraints posed by politics on PDVSA's efforts to expand its foreign operations. Specifically, the study examines the intricate policymaking process that shaped the origins and the development of PDVSA's internationalisation policy, underlying the events and factors that influenced each one of its three distinguishable phases: adoption, formulation, and implementation. The tensions between politics and corporate strategy are highlighted at the core of the policymaking process. The study also looks at the relationship between the oil industry and the other two key decision-making centres involved in the oil policymaking process: the executive and Congress. In exploring the ways in which each one of them sought to influence policy outcome, the study attempts to gain insight into the main factors that prompted the tensions among the policy actors involved. Three environments, or pressure-generating centres, constantly exert influence on the oil industry: the oil market, the political context and the government's financial situation. By seeking to determine the industry's response to their pervasive influence on policy formulation and implementation, this research ascertains the extent to which these variables influenced the decision-making process that

  15. Assessing decision making and dispute resolution in environmental policy: Regulatory negotiations at the Environmental Protection Agency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lyons, E.A.

    1991-01-01

    This dissertation is an evaluation of the use of negotiations in the rule-making context at the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The goal is to assess the benefits and the limitations of negotiation as a policy process, and to make explicit the values which are expected from a negotiation process as well as the conditions which must be met in order for those values to be realized. Three distinct values are expected of negotiation processes: (1) negotiation is promoted as an efficient process that can save time and money in public decision making by avoiding protracted and expensive legal actions; (2) it is expected that a negotiation process which provides a mechanism for reaching accommodation among all competing perspectives can yield good policy outcomes; face-to-face interactions among parties with competing interests should provide opportunities for building better relationships among individuals and also for building community. The usefulness of negotiation as a policy tool is limited by the fact that negotiation is only appropriate in a few select cases in which the issues are mature and the parties affected by the issues are prepared for negotiation.

  16. Implementing evidence-based policy in a network setting: road safety policy in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bax, Charlotte; de Jong, Martin; Koppenjan, Joop

    2010-01-01

    In the early 1990s, in order to improve road safety in The Netherlands, the Institute for Road Safety Research (SWOV) developed an evidence-based "Sustainable Safety" concept. Based on this concept, Dutch road safety policy, was seen as successful and as a best practice in Europe. In The Netherlands, the policy context has now changed from a sectoral policy setting towards a fragmented network in which safety is a facet of other transport-related policies. In this contribution, it is argued that the implementation strategy underlying Sustainable Safety should be aligned with the changed context. In order to explore the adjustments needed, two perspectives of policy implementation are discussed: (1) national evidence-based policies with sectoral implementation; and (2) decentralized negotiation on transport policy in which road safety is but one aspect. We argue that the latter approach matches the characteristics of the newly evolved policy context best, and conclude with recommendations for reformulating the implementation strategy.

  17. An institutional framework for designing and monitoring ecosystem-based fisheries management policy experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rudd, M.A.

    2004-01-01

    Indicator systems are seen as central tools for ecosystem-based fisheries management, helping to steer fisheries towards sustainability by providing timely and useful information to decision-makers. Without testing hypotheses about the links between policies and outcomes, however, indicator systems

  18. Integrating policy-based management and SLA performance monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tzong-Jye; Lin, Chin-Yi; Chang, Shu-Hsin; Yen, Meng-Tzu

    2001-10-01

    Policy-based management system provides the configuration capability for the system administrators to focus on the requirements of customers. The service level agreement performance monitoring mechanism helps system administrators to verify the correctness of policies. However, it is difficult for a device to process the policies directly because the policies are the management concept. This paper proposes a mechanism to decompose a policy into rules that can be efficiently processed by a device. Thus, the device may process the rule and collect the performance statistics information efficiently; and the policy-based management system may collect these performance statistics information and report the service-level agreement performance monitoring information to the system administrator. The proposed policy-based management system achieves both the policy configuration and service-level agreement performance monitoring requirements. A policy consists of a condition part and an action part. The condition part is a Boolean expression of a source host IP group, a destination host IP group, etc. The action part is the parameters of services. We say that an address group is compact if it only consists of a range of IP address that can be denoted by a pair of IP address and corresponding IP mask. If the condition part of a policy only consists of the compact address group, we say that the policy is a rule. Since a device can efficiently process a compact address and a system administrator prefers to define a range of IP address, the policy-based management system has to translate policy into rules and supplements the gaps between policy and rules. The proposed policy-based management system builds the relationships between VPN and policies, policy and rules. Since the system administrator wants to monitor the system performance information of VPNs and policies, the proposed policy-based management system downloads the relationships among VPNs, policies and rules to the

  19. Bridging the gap between evidence and policy for infectious diseases: How models can aid public health decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gwenan M. Knight

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The dominant approach to decision-making in public health policy for infectious diseases relies heavily on expert opinion, which often applies empirical evidence to policy questions in a manner that is neither systematic nor transparent. Although systematic reviews are frequently commissioned to inform specific components of policy (such as efficacy, the same process is rarely applied to the full decision-making process. Mathematical models provide a mechanism through which empirical evidence can be methodically and transparently integrated to address such questions. However, such models are often considered difficult to interpret. In addition, models provide estimates that need to be iteratively re-evaluated as new data or considerations arise. Using the case study of a novel diagnostic for tuberculosis, a framework for improved collaboration between public health decision-makers and mathematical modellers that could lead to more transparent and evidence-driven policy decisions for infectious diseases in the future is proposed. The framework proposes that policymakers should establish long-term collaborations with modellers to address key questions, and that modellers should strive to provide clear explanations of the uncertainty of model structure and outputs. Doing so will improve the applicability of models and clarify their limitations when used to inform real-world public health policy decisions.

  20. Bridging the gap between evidence and policy for infectious diseases: How models can aid public health decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight, Gwenan M; Dharan, Nila J; Fox, Gregory J; Stennis, Natalie; Zwerling, Alice; Khurana, Renuka; Dowdy, David W

    2016-01-01

    The dominant approach to decision-making in public health policy for infectious diseases relies heavily on expert opinion, which often applies empirical evidence to policy questions in a manner that is neither systematic nor transparent. Although systematic reviews are frequently commissioned to inform specific components of policy (such as efficacy), the same process is rarely applied to the full decision-making process. Mathematical models provide a mechanism through which empirical evidence can be methodically and transparently integrated to address such questions. However, such models are often considered difficult to interpret. In addition, models provide estimates that need to be iteratively re-evaluated as new data or considerations arise. Using the case study of a novel diagnostic for tuberculosis, a framework for improved collaboration between public health decision-makers and mathematical modellers that could lead to more transparent and evidence-driven policy decisions for infectious diseases in the future is proposed. The framework proposes that policymakers should establish long-term collaborations with modellers to address key questions, and that modellers should strive to provide clear explanations of the uncertainty of model structure and outputs. Doing so will improve the applicability of models and clarify their limitations when used to inform real-world public health policy decisions. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  1. Permutation based decision making under fuzzy environment using Tabu search

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahdi Bashiri

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the techniques, which are used for Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM is the permutation. In the classical form of permutation, it is assumed that weights and decision matrix components are crisp. However, when group decision making is under consideration and decision makers could not agree on a crisp value for weights and decision matrix components, fuzzy numbers should be used. In this article, the fuzzy permutation technique for MCDM problems has been explained. The main deficiency of permutation is its big computational time, so a Tabu Search (TS based algorithm has been proposed to reduce the computational time. A numerical example has illustrated the proposed approach clearly. Then, some benchmark instances extracted from literature are solved by proposed TS. The analyses of the results show the proper performance of the proposed method.

  2. Impact of policy decisions on the future environmental quality of Flanders, Belgium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Steertegem, M.; De Geest, C.; Vancraeynest, L.

    2010-01-01

    The Environmental Outlook 2030 of the Flemish Environment Agency examines to what extent (alternative) policy strategies allow for realizing the European and Flemish targets. This article illustrates two subjects from the scenario report: the future emissions of greenhouse gases and the particulate matter from transport and the future air quality based on the concentrations of fine particles and ozone. [nl

  3. Impact of Asymmetric Carbon Information on Supply Chain Decisions under Low-Carbon Policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Through the establishment of the leading manufacturer Stackelberg game model under asymmetric carbon information, this paper investigates the misreporting behaviors of the supply chain members and their influences on supply chain performance. Based on “Benchmarking” allocation mechanism, three policies are considered: carbon emission trading, carbon tax, and a new policy which combined carbon quota and carbon tax mechanism. The results show that, in the three models, the leader in the supply chain, even if he has advantages of carbon information, will not lie about his information. That is because the manufacturer’s misreporting behavior has no effect on supply chain members’ performance. But the retailer will lie about the information when he has carbon information advantage. The high-carbon-emission retailers under the carbon trading policy, all the retailers under the carbon tax policy, and the high-carbon-emission retailers under combined quotas and tax policy would like to understate their carbon emissions. Coordination of revenue sharing contract is studied in supply chain to induce the retailer to declare his real carbon information. Optimal contractual parameters are deduced in the three models, under which the profit of the supply chain can be maximized.

  4. The Boardroom Perspective: How Does Energy Efficiency Policy Influence Decision Making in Industry?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    This report delves into the major factors or driving forces that decision makers within a large industrial company take into account when deciding to make new investments - the so-called {sup b}oardroom perspective{sup .} The rationale for an individual company making an investment that will reduce energy consumption varies considerably and depends on a range of factors. This report explores those factors that influence companies to invest in energy savings and proposes a methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of a country's energy efficiency and greenhouse gas mitigation policies mix from this boardroom perspective. This paper is the product of collaboration between the IEA and the Institute of Industrial Productivity (IIP).

  5. Between Policy-Making and Planning SEA and Strategic Decision-Making in the Danish Energy Sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyhne, Ivar

    2011-01-01

    This article deals with the challenge of approaching decision-making processes through strategic environmental assessment (SEA). It is argued that the interaction between policy-making and planning in strategic decision-making processes is a neglected reason for problems with applying SEA......, as legislation and guidance on SEA primarily approach either the policy or plan level. To substantiate the argument, the extent of interaction is empirically investigated. Four contemporary decision-making processes in the Danish energy sector are mapped as a series of choices. Fundamental changes...... with considerable environmental impacts are decided these years, often without preceding SEA processes. The mapping shows a profound interaction between policy-making and planning. In this interaction, public consultation, systematic environmental analyses, and transparency on alternatives are primarily related...

  6. Tactical decision games - developing scenario-based training for decision-making in distributed teams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lauche, K.; Crichton, M.; Bayerl, P.S.

    2009-01-01

    Team training should reflect the increasing complexity of decision-making environments. Guidelines for scenario-based training were adopted for a distributed setting and tested in a pilot training session with a distributed team in the offshore oil industry. Participants valued the scenario as

  7. Bases for Decisions on Final Disposal in Finland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avolahti, Jaana

    2001-01-01

    The disposal of the spent nuclear fuel is approaching one of the significant milestones in Finland. Social debate on the nuclear waste management is going on aiming at a decision of principle on future directions of spent fuel management. The research so far has required no political decision. This current situation is preceded by preparations for two decades carried out by Posiva Oy who took over the programme managed earlier by Teollisuuden Voinia Oy, one of the country's nuclear power companies. The preparations comprise site investigations, technical concept development, research into long-term safety and an environmental impact assessment. The work carried out by Posiva is under regular assessment by the authorities. Research programmes are drawn up every year and reports are published for open review. The preparations in the next years to come aim at starting the construction of the repository in 2010 and the disposal operations are planned to be started in 2020. Various stakeholders in Finland are involved in the decision-making process on the disposal of spent nuclear fuel. The process started when Posiva as an implementer applied for the Government's Decision in Principle in 1999. The Government made a favourable decision in December 2000 on the basis of different considerations. Among the important bases were the preceding favourable decisions made by the proposed siting municipality and the regulatory authority for radiation safety. At the moment the members of the Parliament are discussing the principles of the disposal in order to be able to vote on the Government's decision in the springtime. This paper discusses similarities and differences between the decisions made so far as regards the deep repository. The objective is to present the significance of the decisions from the point of view of an implementer of the repository. The Decision in Principle does not give any consent to start constructing the repository. Licenses for construction and

  8. Accrual based accounting implementation: An approach for modelling major decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ratno Agriyanto

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Over the last three decades the main issues of implementation of accrual based accounting government institutions in Indonesia. Implementation of accrual based accounting in government institutions amid debate about the usefulness of accounting information for decision-making. Empirical study shows that the accrual based of accounting information on a government institution is not used for decision making. The research objective was to determine the impact of the implementation of the accrual based accounting to the accrual basis of accounting information use for decision-making basis. We used the survey questionnaires. The data were processed by SEM using statistical software WarpPLS. The results showed that the implementation of the accrual based accounting in City Government Semarang has significantly positively associated with decision-making. Another important finding is the City Government officials of Semarang have personality, low tolerance of ambiguity is a negative effect on the relationship between the implementation of the accrual based accounting for decision making

  9. Scalable approximate policies for Markov decision process models of hospital elective admissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, George; Lizotte, Dan; Hoey, Jesse

    2014-05-01

    To demonstrate the feasibility of using stochastic simulation methods for the solution of a large-scale Markov decision process model of on-line patient admissions scheduling. The problem of admissions scheduling is modeled as a Markov decision process in which the states represent numbers of patients using each of a number of resources. We investigate current state-of-the-art real time planning methods to compute solutions to this Markov decision process. Due to the complexity of the model, traditional model-based planners are limited in scalability since they require an explicit enumeration of the model dynamics. To overcome this challenge, we apply sample-based planners along with efficient simulation techniques that given an initial start state, generate an action on-demand while avoiding portions of the model that are irrelevant to the start state. We also propose a novel variant of a popular sample-based planner that is particularly well suited to the elective admissions problem. Results show that the stochastic simulation methods allow for the problem size to be scaled by a factor of almost 10 in the action space, and exponentially in the state space. We have demonstrated our approach on a problem with 81 actions, four specialities and four treatment patterns, and shown that we can generate solutions that are near-optimal in about 100s. Sample-based planners are a viable alternative to state-based planners for large Markov decision process models of elective admissions scheduling. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Organizational Decision Based on Business Intelligence

    OpenAIRE

    Pejman Hosseinioun; Rose Shayeghi; Ghasem Ghorbani Rostam

    2012-01-01

    Nowadays, obtaining traditional statistics and reports is not adequate for the needs of organizational managers. The managers need to analyze and to transform the raw data into knowledge in the world filled with information. Therefore in this regard various processes have been developed. In the meantime the artificial intelligence-based processes are used and the new topics such as business intelligence and knowledge discovery have emerged. In the current paper it is soug...

  11. Young Children Are Researchers: Children Aged Four to Eight Years Engage in Important Research Behaviour When They Base Decisions on Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Jane

    2016-01-01

    Whilst young children are affected by educational policy decisions based on research evidence, their abilities to make decisions based on evidence are often disregarded by policymakers and professional adult researchers. This article reports on elements of the Young Children As Researchers (YCAR) project, an interpretive empirical study that…

  12. Policy-Led Comparative Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Crops: Testing for Increased Risk Rather Than Profiling Phenotypes Leads to Predictable and Transparent Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan Raybould

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available We describe two contrasting methods of comparative environmental risk assessment for genetically modified (GM crops. Both are science-based, in the sense that they use science to help make decisions, but they differ in the relationship between science and policy. Policy-led comparative risk assessment begins by defining what would be regarded as unacceptable changes when the use a particular GM crop replaces an accepted use of another crop. Hypotheses that these changes will not occur are tested using existing or new data, and corroboration or falsification of the hypotheses is used to inform decision-making. Science-led comparative risk assessment, on the other hand, tends to test null hypotheses of no difference between a GM crop and a comparator. The variables that are compared may have little or no relevance to any previously stated policy objective and hence decision-making tends to be ad hoc in response to possibly spurious statistical significance. We argue that policy-led comparative risk assessment is the far more effective method. With this in mind, we caution that phenotypic profiling of GM crops, particularly with omics methods, is potentially detrimental to risk assessment.

  13. How citizen advisory boards provide input into major waste policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogers, E.; Murakami, L.; Hanson, L.

    1995-01-01

    Volunteer citizen boards, such as Site Specific Advisory Boards, can be a very important key to success for the Department of Energy's (DOE's) Waste Management program. These boards can provide informed, independent recommendations reflecting the diversity of the community and its values. A successful volunteer process requires collaboration among regulators, DOE and other Boards; knowing how and when to interface with the broader public; understanding the diversity and representational issues of a citizens group; knowing the open-quotes ins and outsclose quotes of working with volunteers; education and training and most importantly, planning. Volunteers on a citizens board were created to tackle the big picture, policy decisions. The chair of the Rocky Flats Citizens Advisory Board will describe her Board's successes, including the challenges in reaching consensus agreements, as well as the need for integration with other boards and the sites' on-going public involvement programs to provide the input the department is seeking. Finally, one of the greatest challenges for the boards is interfacing with the greater public-at-large, seeing how the CAB has overcome this challenge and integrating broader public input into its decisions

  14. How citizen advisory boards provide input into major waste policy decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rogers, E.; Murakami, L.; Hanson, L. [Rocky Flats Citizen Advisory Board, Westminster, CO (United States)

    1995-12-31

    Volunteer citizen boards, such as Site Specific Advisory Boards, can be a very important key to success for the Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) Waste Management program. These boards can provide informed, independent recommendations reflecting the diversity of the community and its values. A successful volunteer process requires collaboration among regulators, DOE and other Boards; knowing how and when to interface with the broader public; understanding the diversity and representational issues of a citizens group; knowing the {open_quotes}ins and outs{close_quotes} of working with volunteers; education and training and most importantly, planning. Volunteers on a citizens board were created to tackle the big picture, policy decisions. The chair of the Rocky Flats Citizens Advisory Board will describe her Board`s successes, including the challenges in reaching consensus agreements, as well as the need for integration with other boards and the sites` on-going public involvement programs to provide the input the department is seeking. Finally, one of the greatest challenges for the boards is interfacing with the greater public-at-large, seeing how the CAB has overcome this challenge and integrating broader public input into its decisions.

  15. Virtual human technology: capturing sex, race, and age influences in individual pain decision policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsh, Adam T; Alqudah, Ashraf F; Stutts, Lauren A; Robinson, Michael E

    2008-11-15

    Pain assessment is subject to bias due to characteristics of the individual in pain and of the observing person. Few research studies have examined pain assessment biases in an experimental setting. This study employs innovative virtual human technology to achieve greater experimental control. A lens model design was used to capture decision-making policies at the idiographic and nomothetic level. Seventy-five undergraduates viewed virtual humans (VH) that varied in sex, race, age, and pain expression. Participants provided computerized ratings with Visual Analogue Scales on the VH's pain intensity, pain unpleasantness, negative mood, coping, and need for medical treatment. Idiographic analyses revealed that individuals used pain expression most frequently as a significant cue. Nomothetic analyses showed that higher pain expression VH and female VH were viewed as having higher pain intensity, higher pain unpleasantness, greater negative mood, worse coping, and a greater need to seek medical treatment than lower pain expression VH and male VH, respectively. Older VH were viewed as having worse coping and a greater need to seek medical treatment than younger VH. This innovative paradigm involving VH technology and a lens model design was shown to be highly effective and could serve as a model for future studies investigating pain-related decision making in healthcare providers.

  16. Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, M Granger

    2014-05-20

    The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of public policy decision making. This paper explores when it is sensible to perform such elicitation and how that can best be done. A number of key issues are discussed, including topics on which there are, and are not, experts who have knowledge that provides a basis for making informed predictive judgments; the inadequacy of only using qualitative uncertainty language; the role of cognitive heuristics and of overconfidence; the choice of experts; the development, refinement, and iterative testing of elicitation protocols that are designed to help experts to consider systematically all relevant knowledge when they make their judgments; the treatment of uncertainty about model functional form; diversity of expert opinion; and when it does or does not make sense to combine judgments from different experts. Although it may be tempting to view expert elicitation as a low-cost, low-effort alternative to conducting serious research and analysis, it is neither. Rather, expert elicitation should build on and use the best available research and analysis and be undertaken only when, given those, the state of knowledge will remain insufficient to support timely informed assessment and decision making.

  17. Science and policy in regulatory decision making: Getting the facts right about hazardous air pollutants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sexton, K. [Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (United States)

    1995-09-01

    Hazardous air pollutants are regulated under Title III of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. The Amendments replace the risk-based approach mandated in the 1977 Amendments with a prescriptive, technology-based approach requiring that maximum achievable control technology (MACT) be applied to all major industrial sources of 189 hazardous air pollutants. The change reflects political, rather than scientific consensus that the public health benefits justify the costs. The choice is put into perspective by looking at the interface between science and policy that occurs as part of regular decisionmaking. Particular emphasis is given to examining the interrelationships among facts (science), judgments (science policy), and policy (values) in the context of the risk assessment paradigm. Science and policy are discussed in relation to Title III, contrasting the political consensus for action with the scientific uncertainty about risks and benefits. It is argued that a balanced research program is needed to get the facts right about hazardous air pollutants, including research to meet statutory requirements, to reduce uncertainties in risk assessment, and to address strategic issues. 51 refs., 10 figs.

  18. Informing Evidence Based Decisions: Usage Statistics for Online Journal Databases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexei Botchkarev

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective – The primary objective was to examine online journal database usage statistics for a provincial ministry of health in the context of evidence based decision-making. In addition, the study highlights implementation of the Journal Access Centre (JAC that is housed and powered by the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care (MOHLTC to inform health systems policy-making. Methods – This was a prospective case study using descriptive analysis of the JAC usage statistics of journal articles from January 2009 to September 2013. Results – JAC enables ministry employees to access approximately 12,000 journals with full-text articles. JAC usage statistics for the 2011-2012 calendar years demonstrate a steady level of activity in terms of searches, with monthly averages of 5,129. In 2009-2013, a total of 4,759 journal titles were accessed including 1,675 journals with full-text. Usage statistics demonstrate that the actual consumption was over 12,790 full-text downloaded articles or approximately 2,700 articles annually. Conclusion – JAC’s steady level of activities, revealed by the study, reflects continuous demand for JAC services and products. It testifies that access to online journal databases has become part of routine government knowledge management processes. MOHLTC’s broad area of responsibilities with dynamically changing priorities translates into the diverse information needs of its employees and a large set of required journals. Usage statistics indicate that MOHLTC information needs cannot be mapped to a reasonably compact set of “core” journals with a subsequent subscription to those.

  19. COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY FROM HEALTH CHECK DECISIONS TO THE POST-2013 REFORM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niculescu Oana Marilena

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposed for being presented belongs to the field research International Affairs and European Integration. The paper entitled Common Agricultural Policy from Health Check decisions to the post-2013 reform aims to analyze the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP from the Health Check adoption in November 2008 to a new reform post-2013. The objectives of the paper are the presentation of the Health Check with its advantages and disadvantages as well as the analysis of the opportunity of a new European policy and its reforming having in view that the analysis of Health Check condition was considered a compromise. The paper is related to the internal and international research consisting in several books, studies, documents that analyze the particularities of the most debated, controversial and reformed EU policy. A personal study is represented by the first report within the PhD paper called The reform of CAP and its implications for Romanias agriculture(coordinator prof. Gheorghe Hurduzeu PhD, Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, Faculty of International Business, research studies in the period 2009-2012. The research methodology used consists in collecting and analysis data from national and international publications, their validation, followed by a dissemination of the results in order to express a personal opinion regarding CAP and its reform. The results of the research consist in proving the opportunity of a new reform due to the fact that Health Check belongs already to the past. The paper belongs to the field research mentioned, in the attempt to prove the opportunity of building a new EU agricultural policy. The challenges CAP is facing are: food safety, environmental and climate changes, territorial balance as well as new challenges-improving sustainable management of natural resources, maintaining competitiveness in the context of globalization growth, strengthening EU cohesion in rural areas, increasing the support of CAP for

  20. China’s Foreign- and Security-policy Decision-making Processes under Hu Jintao

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Pierre Cabestan

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Since 1979, foreign- and security-policy-making and implementation processes have gradually and substantially changed. New modes of operation that have consolidated under Hu Jintao, actually took shape under Jiang Zemin in the 1990s, and some, under Deng Xiaoping. While the military’s role has diminished, that of diplomats, experts, and bureaucracies dealing with trade, international economic relations, energy, propaganda and education has increased. Decision making in this area has remained highly centralized and concentrated in the supreme leading bodies of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP. However, China’s globalization and decentralization, as well as the increasing complexity of its international interests, have intensified the need to better coordinate the activities of the various CCP and state organs involved in foreign and security policy; hence, the growing importance of the CCP leading small groups (foreign affairs, national security, Taiwan, etc.. But the rigidity of the current institutional pattern has so far foiled repeated attempts to establish a National Security Council.

  1. External factors affecting decision-making and use of evidence in an Australian public health policy environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zardo, Pauline; Collie, Alex; Livingstone, Charles

    2014-05-01

    This study examined external factors affecting policy and program decision-making in a specific public health policy context: injury prevention and rehabilitation compensation in the Australian state of Victoria. The aim was twofold: identify external factors that affect policy and program decision-making in this specific context; use this evidence to inform targeting of interventions aimed at increasing research use in this context. Qualitative interviews were undertaken from June 2011 to January 2012 with 33 employees from two state government agencies. Key factors identified were stakeholder feedback and action, government and ministerial input, legal feedback and action, injured persons and the media. The identified external factors were able to significantly influence policy and program decision-making processes: acting as both barriers and facilitators, depending on the particular issue at hand. The factors with the most influence were the Minister and government, lawyers, and agency stakeholders, particularly health providers, trade unions and employer groups. This research revealed that interventions aimed at increasing use of research in this context must target and harness the influence of these groups. This research provides critical insights for researchers seeking to design interventions to increase use of research in policy environments and influence decision-making in Victorian injury prevention and rehabilitation compensation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. EEG feature selection method based on decision tree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Lijuan; Ge, Hui; Ma, Wei; Miao, Jun

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to solve automated feature selection problem in brain computer interface (BCI). In order to automate feature selection process, we proposed a novel EEG feature selection method based on decision tree (DT). During the electroencephalogram (EEG) signal processing, a feature extraction method based on principle component analysis (PCA) was used, and the selection process based on decision tree was performed by searching the feature space and automatically selecting optimal features. Considering that EEG signals are a series of non-linear signals, a generalized linear classifier named support vector machine (SVM) was chosen. In order to test the validity of the proposed method, we applied the EEG feature selection method based on decision tree to BCI Competition II datasets Ia, and the experiment showed encouraging results.

  3. An Agent-Based Model of Farmer Decision Making in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selby, Philip; Medellin-Azuara, Josue; Harou, Julien; Klassert, Christian; Yoon, Jim

    2016-04-01

    We describe an agent based hydro-economic model of groundwater irrigated agriculture in the Jordan Highlands. The model employs a Multi-Agent-Simulation (MAS) framework and is designed to evaluate direct and indirect outcomes of climate change scenarios and policy interventions on farmer decision making, including annual land use, groundwater use for irrigation, and water sales to a water tanker market. Land use and water use decisions are simulated for groups of farms grouped by location and their behavioural and economic similarities. Decreasing groundwater levels, and the associated increase in pumping costs, are important drivers for change within Jordan'S agricultural sector. We describe how this is considered by coupling of agricultural and groundwater models. The agricultural production model employs Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP), a method for calibrating agricultural production functions to observed planted areas. PMP has successfully been used with disaggregate models for policy analysis. We adapt the PMP approach to allow explicit evaluation of the impact of pumping costs, groundwater purchase fees and a water tanker market. The work demonstrates the applicability of agent-based agricultural decision making assessment in the Jordan Highlands and its integration with agricultural model calibration methods. The proposed approach is designed and implemented with software such that it could be used to evaluate a variety of physical and human influences on decision making in agricultural water management.

  4. Does Age Matter in HR Decision Making? Four Types of Age Policies in Finnish Work Organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Pärnänen

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The extension of work careers is one of the key targets of social policy in the EU as well as in Finnish national policy-making. But how is this objective of lengthened work life received at the workplace level? This study examines the aim of extending working careers at an organizational level. The data comprise interviews with human resources managers, shop stewards, and employees reaching the end of their working life, conducted in ten Finnish work organizations. Four different age policy lines can be distinguished from the data. First, the age policy practices of manufacturing enterprises are very much alike in that a clear turn has occurred from favoring the unemployment pension path in the case of dismissals to extending working careers. Second, the age policy of public sector organizations encourages investment in extending the working careers of older employees, though young people are clearly preferred in recruitment. The third line can be found in private service sector enterprises that utilize age segmentation based on the age of their customers – young waiters for young customers, for example – while the fourth can be described by the words ‘situation-specific’ and ‘passive’. No input is made into extending working careers and the unemployment route is used as the means of dismissal where needed. The study reveals that the organizations’ age policies are strategic in nature: longer working careers are supported and older people are hired only if it is strategically sound. It can be said that workplaces currently determine the boundaries of who and at what age people are fit for work and of ‘working age’.

  5. Racism, gun ownership and gun control: biased attitudes in US whites may influence policy decisions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry O'Brien

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Racism is related to policies preferences and behaviors that adversely affect blacks and appear related to a fear of blacks (e.g., increased policing, death penalty. This study examined whether racism is also related to gun ownership and opposition to gun controls in US whites. METHOD: The most recent data from the American National Election Study, a large representative US sample, was used to test relationships between racism, gun ownership, and opposition to gun control in US whites. Explanatory variables known to be related to gun ownership and gun control opposition (i.e., age, gender, education, income, conservatism, anti-government sentiment, southern vs. other states, political identification were entered in logistic regression models, along with measures of racism, and the stereotype of blacks as violent. Outcome variables included; having a gun in the home, opposition to bans on handguns in the home, support for permits to carry concealed handguns. RESULTS: After accounting for all explanatory variables, logistic regressions found that for each 1 point increase in symbolic racism there was a 50% increase in the odds of having a gun at home. After also accounting for having a gun in the home, there was still a 28% increase in support for permits to carry concealed handguns, for each one point increase in symbolic racism. The relationship between symbolic racism and opposition to banning handguns in the home (OR1.27 CI 1.03,1.58 was reduced to non-significant after accounting for having a gun in the home (OR1.17 CI.94,1.46, which likely represents self-interest in retaining property (guns. CONCLUSIONS: Symbolic racism was related to having a gun in the home and opposition to gun control policies in US whites. The findings help explain US whites' paradoxical attitudes towards gun ownership and gun control. Such attitudes may adversely influence US gun control policy debates and decisions.

  6. Racism, Gun Ownership and Gun Control: Biased Attitudes in US Whites May Influence Policy Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    O’Brien, Kerry; Forrest, Walter; Lynott, Dermot; Daly, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Objective Racism is related to policies preferences and behaviors that adversely affect blacks and appear related to a fear of blacks (e.g., increased policing, death penalty). This study examined whether racism is also related to gun ownership and opposition to gun controls in US whites. Method The most recent data from the American National Election Study, a large representative US sample, was used to test relationships between racism, gun ownership, and opposition to gun control in US whites. Explanatory variables known to be related to gun ownership and gun control opposition (i.e., age, gender, education, income, conservatism, anti-government sentiment, southern vs. other states, political identification) were entered in logistic regression models, along with measures of racism, and the stereotype of blacks as violent. Outcome variables included; having a gun in the home, opposition to bans on handguns in the home, support for permits to carry concealed handguns. Results After accounting for all explanatory variables, logistic regressions found that for each 1 point increase in symbolic racism there was a 50% increase in the odds of having a gun at home. After also accounting for having a gun in the home, there was still a 28% increase in support for permits to carry concealed handguns, for each one point increase in symbolic racism. The relationship between symbolic racism and opposition to banning handguns in the home (OR1.27 CI 1.03,1.58) was reduced to non-significant after accounting for having a gun in the home (OR1.17 CI.94,1.46), which likely represents self-interest in retaining property (guns). Conclusions Symbolic racism was related to having a gun in the home and opposition to gun control policies in US whites. The findings help explain US whites’ paradoxical attitudes towards gun ownership and gun control. Such attitudes may adversely influence US gun control policy debates and decisions. PMID:24204867

  7. Racism, gun ownership and gun control: biased attitudes in US whites may influence policy decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Kerry; Forrest, Walter; Lynott, Dermot; Daly, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Racism is related to policies preferences and behaviors that adversely affect blacks and appear related to a fear of blacks (e.g., increased policing, death penalty). This study examined whether racism is also related to gun ownership and opposition to gun controls in US whites. The most recent data from the American National Election Study, a large representative US sample, was used to test relationships between racism, gun ownership, and opposition to gun control in US whites. Explanatory variables known to be related to gun ownership and gun control opposition (i.e., age, gender, education, income, conservatism, anti-government sentiment, southern vs. other states, political identification) were entered in logistic regression models, along with measures of racism, and the stereotype of blacks as violent. Outcome variables included; having a gun in the home, opposition to bans on handguns in the home, support for permits to carry concealed handguns. After accounting for all explanatory variables, logistic regressions found that for each 1 point increase in symbolic racism there was a 50% increase in the odds of having a gun at home. After also accounting for having a gun in the home, there was still a 28% increase in support for permits to carry concealed handguns, for each one point increase in symbolic racism. The relationship between symbolic racism and opposition to banning handguns in the home (OR1.27 CI 1.03,1.58) was reduced to non-significant after accounting for having a gun in the home (OR1.17 CI.94,1.46), which likely represents self-interest in retaining property (guns). Symbolic racism was related to having a gun in the home and opposition to gun control policies in US whites. The findings help explain US whites' paradoxical attitudes towards gun ownership and gun control. Such attitudes may adversely influence US gun control policy debates and decisions.

  8. Spike-based decision learning of Nash equilibria in two-player games.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes Friedrich

    Full Text Available Humans and animals face decision tasks in an uncertain multi-agent environment where an agent's strategy may change in time due to the co-adaptation of others strategies. The neuronal substrate and the computational algorithms underlying such adaptive decision making, however, is largely unknown. We propose a population coding model of spiking neurons with a policy gradient procedure that successfully acquires optimal strategies for classical game-theoretical tasks. The suggested population reinforcement learning reproduces data from human behavioral experiments for the blackjack and the inspector game. It performs optimally according to a pure (deterministic and mixed (stochastic Nash equilibrium, respectively. In contrast, temporal-difference(TD-learning, covariance-learning, and basic reinforcement learning fail to perform optimally for the stochastic strategy. Spike-based population reinforcement learning, shown to follow the stochastic reward gradient, is therefore a viable candidate to explain automated decision learning of a Nash equilibrium in two-player games.

  9. Map-based decision aids for fire support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarosh, Victor

    1996-06-01

    The Fire Control Division at ARDEC is developing prototype decision aid tools to enable fire support echelons to rapidly respond to requests for fire support. Decision aids on fire support platforms can assist in route planning, site selection, and develop mobility overlays to enable the shooter to rapidly move into position and prepare for the fire mission. The Decision Aid system utilizes an integrated design approach which has each module interacting with the others by sharing data bases and common algorithms to provide recommended courses of action for route planning and generation, position selection, self defense, logistics estimates, situational awareness and fire mission planning aids such as tactical assessment, tactical planning, sustainment, etc. The Decision Aid system will use expert system artificial intelligence which will be developed from knowledge bases utilizing object oriented design. The modules currently reason on Defense Mapping Agency Interim Terrain Data and Digital Terrain Elevation Data and collect mission, intelligence, and sensor data from the digitized battlefield information distribution system to provide the crew or mission planners with intelligent recommendations. The system can provide a trade off analysis of time vs. safety, enable commanders to rapidly respond to fire support request, automatically generate OpOrders, and create overlays which depict mobility corridors, NBC areas, friendly units, overhead concealment, communications, and threat areas. The Decision Aids system can provide a vastly improved mobility, situational awareness, and decision cycle capabilities which can be utilized to increase the tempo of battle.

  10. Episodic memories predict adaptive value-based decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murty, Vishnu; FeldmanHall, Oriel; Hunter, Lindsay E.; Phelps, Elizabeth A; Davachi, Lila

    2016-01-01

    Prior research illustrates that memory can guide value-based decision-making. For example, previous work has implicated both working memory and procedural memory (i.e., reinforcement learning) in guiding choice. However, other types of memories, such as episodic memory, may also influence decision-making. Here we test the role for episodic memory—specifically item versus associative memory—in supporting value-based choice. Participants completed a task where they first learned the value associated with trial unique lotteries. After a short delay, they completed a decision-making task where they could choose to re-engage with previously encountered lotteries, or new never before seen lotteries. Finally, participants completed a surprise memory test for the lotteries and their associated values. Results indicate that participants chose to re-engage more often with lotteries that resulted in high versus low rewards. Critically, participants not only formed detailed, associative memories for the reward values coupled with individual lotteries, but also exhibited adaptive decision-making only when they had intact associative memory. We further found that the relationship between adaptive choice and associative memory generalized to more complex, ecologically valid choice behavior, such as social decision-making. However, individuals more strongly encode experiences of social violations—such as being treated unfairly, suggesting a bias for how individuals form associative memories within social contexts. Together, these findings provide an important integration of episodic memory and decision-making literatures to better understand key mechanisms supporting adaptive behavior. PMID:26999046

  11. Integrating Design Decision Management with Model-based Software Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    Design decisions are continuously made during the development of software systems and are important artifacts for design documentation. Dedicated decision management systems are often used to capture such design knowledge. Most such systems are, however, separated from the design artifacts...... of the system. In model-based software development, where design models are used to develop a software system, outcomes of many design decisions have big impact on design models. The realization of design decisions is often manual and tedious work on design models. Moreover, keeping design models consistent......, or by ignoring the causes. This substitutes manual reviews to some extent. The concepts, implemented in a tool, have been validated with design patterns, refactorings, and domain level tests that comprise a replay of a real project. This proves the applicability of the solution to realistic examples...

  12. Building a Public Health Response to the Flint Water Crisis: Implications for Policy and Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furr-Holden, D.

    2017-12-01

    Flint, MI has experienced a recent, man-made public health crisis. The Flint Water Crisis, caused by a switch in the municipal water supply and subsequent violation of engineering and regulatory standards to ensure water quality lead to a large portion of the city being exposed to excess metals (including lead), bacteria and other water-borne pathogens. The data used to initially rebut the existence of the crisis were ecologically flawed as they included large numbers of people who were not on the Flint water supply. Policy-makers, municipal officials, the medical community, and public health professionals were at odds over the existence of a problem and the lack of data only fueled the debate. Pediatricians, lead by Dr. Mona Hannah-Attisha, began testing children in the Hurley Children's Medical Center for blood-lead levels and observed a 2-fold increase in elevated blood lead levels in Flint children compared to children in the area not on the Flint municipal water supply, where no increases in elevated lead were observed. Subsequent geospatial analyses revealed spatial clustering of cases based on where children live, go to school and play. These data represented the first step in data driven decision making leading to the subsequent switch of the municipal water supply and launch of subsequent advocacy efforts to remediate the effect of the Water Crisis. Since that time, a multi-disciplinary team of scientists including engineers, bench scientists, physicians and public health researchers have mounted evidence to promote complete replacement of the city's aging water infrastructure, developed a data registry to track cases and coordinate care and services for affected residents, and implemented a community engagement model that puts residents and community stakeholders at the heart of the planning and implementation efforts. The presentation will include data used at various stages to mount a public health response to the Flint Water Crisis and establish the

  13. Launching a virtual decision lab: development and field-testing of a web-based patient decision support research platform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Aubri S; Llewellyn-Thomas, Hilary A; Tosteson, Anna N A; O'Connor, Annette M; Volk, Robert J; Tomek, Ivan M; Andrews, Steven B; Bartels, Stephen J

    2014-12-12

    Over 100 trials show that patient decision aids effectively improve patients' information comprehension and values-based decision making. However, gaps remain in our understanding of several fundamental and applied questions, particularly related to the design of interactive, personalized decision aids. This paper describes an interdisciplinary development process for, and early field testing of, a web-based patient decision support research platform, or virtual decision lab, to address these questions. An interdisciplinary stakeholder panel designed the web-based research platform with three components: a) an introduction to shared decision making, b) a web-based patient decision aid, and c) interactive data collection items. Iterative focus groups provided feedback on paper drafts and online prototypes. A field test assessed a) feasibility for using the research platform, in terms of recruitment, usage, and acceptability; and b) feasibility of using the web-based decision aid component, compared to performance of a videobooklet decision aid in clinical care. This interdisciplinary, theory-based, patient-centered design approach produced a prototype for field-testing in six months. Participants (n = 126) reported that: the decision aid component was easy to use (98%), information was clear (90%), the length was appropriate (100%), it was appropriately detailed (90%), and it held their interest (97%). They spent a mean of 36 minutes using the decision aid and 100% preferred using their home/library computer. Participants scored a mean of 75% correct on the Decision Quality, Knowledge Subscale, and 74 out of 100 on the Preparation for Decision Making Scale. Completing the web-based decision aid reduced mean Decisional Conflict scores from 31.1 to 19.5 (p decision science and health informatics approaches facilitated rapid development of a web-based patient decision support research platform that was feasible for use in research studies in terms of recruitment

  14. Structuring AHP-based maintenance policy selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goossens, Adriaan; Basten, Robertus Johannes Ida; Hummel, J. Marjan; van der Wegen, Leonardus L.M.

    2015-01-01

    We aim to structure the maintenance policy selection process for ships, using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Maintenance is an important contributor to reach the intended life-time of capital technical assets, and it is gaining increasing interest and relevance. A maintenance policy is a

  15. Promotion of technical harmonisation on risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchsteiger, Christian; Cojazzi, Giacomo

    2000-01-01

    The EC-JRC International Workshop on Promotion of Technical Harmonisation on Risk-Based Decision Making, held at Stresa and Ispra, Italy, 22-25 May 2000, was an experts meeting to discuss the possible need of developing an internationally accepted generic 'standard' for risk-based decision making.This paper briefly describes the workshop background, its organisation and summarises its main results and conclusions; it reflects the personal opinions of the authors and in no way commits the European Commission. (author)

  16. Determinants of analytics-based managerial decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Usarat Kasetsart University

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates how managerial decision-making is influenced by Big Data analytics, analysts’ interaction skills and quantitative skills of senior and middle managers. The results of a cross-sectional survey of senior IT managers reveal that Big Data analytics (BDA creates an incentive for managers to base more of their decisions on analytic insights. However, we also find that interaction skills of analysts and – even more so – managers’ quantitative skills are stronger drivers of analytics-based decision-making. Finally, our analysis reveals that, contrary to mainstream perceptions, managers in smaller organizations are more capable in terms of quantitative skills, and they are significantly more likely to base their decisions on analytics than managers in large organizations. Considering the important role of managers’ quantitative skills in leveraging analytic decision support, our findings suggest that smaller firms may owe some of their analytic advantages to the fact that they have managers who are closer to their analysts – and analytics more generally.

  17. Seminal Quality Prediction Using Clustering-Based Decision Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Wang

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of seminal quality with statistical learning tools is an emerging methodology in decision support systems in biomedical engineering and is very useful in early diagnosis of seminal patients and selection of semen donors candidates. However, as is common in medical diagnosis, seminal quality prediction faces the class imbalance problem. In this paper, we propose a novel supervised ensemble learning approach, namely Clustering-Based Decision Forests, to tackle unbalanced class learning problem in seminal quality prediction. Experiment results on real fertility diagnosis dataset have shown that Clustering-Based Decision Forests outperforms decision tree, Support Vector Machines, random forests, multilayer perceptron neural networks and logistic regression by a noticeable margin. Clustering-Based Decision Forests can also be used to evaluate variables’ importance and the top five important factors that may affect semen concentration obtained in this study are age, serious trauma, sitting time, the season when the semen sample is produced, and high fevers in the last year. The findings could be helpful in explaining seminal concentration problems in infertile males or pre-screening semen donor candidates.

  18. Health: Policy or Law? A Population-Based Analysis of the Supreme Court's ACA Cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parmet, Wendy E

    2016-12-01

    This essay argues that it matters for the fate of health policies challenged in court whether courts consider health merely as a policy goal that must be subordinate to law, or as a legal norm warranting legal weight and consideration. Applying population-based legal analysis, this article demonstrates that courts have traditionally treated health as a legal norm. However, this norm appears to have weakened in recent years, a trend evident in the Supreme Court's first two decisions concerning the Affordable Care Act, NFIB v. Sebelius and Burwell v. Hobby Lobby However, in its more recent Affordable Care Act decision, King v. Burwell , the health legal norm is once again evident. Whether the Court will continue to treat health as a legal norm will prove critical to the deference and weight it grants health policies in the future. Copyright © 2016 by Duke University Press.

  19. Towards An Intelligent Model-Based Decision Support System For An Integrated Oil Company (EGPC)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khorshid, M.; Hassan, H.; Abdel Latife, M.A.

    2004-01-01

    Decision Support System (DSS) is an interactive, flexible and adaptable computer-based support system specially developed for supporting the solution of unstructured management problems [31] DSS has become widespread for oil industry domain in recent years. The computer-based DSS, which were developed and implemented in oil industry, are used to address the complex short-term planning and operational issues associated with downstream industry. Most of these applications concentrate on the data-centered tools, while the model-centered applications of DSS are still very limited up till now [20]. This study develops an Intelligent Model-Based DSS for an integrated oil company, to help policy makers and petroleum planner in improving the effectiveness of the strategic planning in oil sector. This domain basically imposes semi-structured or unstructured decisions and involves a very complex modeling process

  20. Dark Matter: The "Gravitational Pull" of Maternalist Discourses on Politicians' Decision Making for Early Childhood Policy in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bown, Kathryn; Sumsion, Jennifer; Press, Frances

    2011-01-01

    The article reports on a study investigating influences on Australian politicians' decision making for early childhood education and care (ECEC) policy. The astronomical concept of dark matter is utilised as a metaphor for considering normalising, and therefore frequently difficult to detect and disrupt, influences implicated in politicians'…

  1. Influence of branding on preference-based decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philiastides, Marios G; Ratcliff, Roger

    2013-07-01

    Branding has become one of the most important determinants of consumer choices. Intriguingly, the psychological mechanisms of how branding influences decision making remain elusive. In the research reported here, we used a preference-based decision-making task and computational modeling to identify which internal components of processing are affected by branding. We found that a process of noisy temporal integration of subjective value information can model preference-based choices reliably and that branding biases are explained by changes in the rate of the integration process itself. This result suggests that branding information and subjective preference are integrated into a single source of evidence in the decision-making process, thereby altering choice behavior.

  2. New dawn for electricity? EU policy and the changing decision space for electricity production in Sweden; a CANES Working Paper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nilsson, Maans

    2009-11-15

    The European Union has taken an increasing interest in governing the energy sector in its Member States. However, EU still competes with national-level policies as well as sectoral organizational fields with sticky institutions, norms and knowledge. Therefore, despite its high ambitions in the energy field, for instance in the promotion of renewables and market reform, it is not clear whether the EU really exerts a strong influence, and if there is such an influence, the processes of influence and 'filtering' through to national political and industrial structures are not well understood. This paper examines a recent strategic change amongst national actors in Sweden in the energy sector; the decision space for investment in electricity. It examines the influence of European policy change, national political and policy change and organizational field-level developments on this decision space. It finds that European policy has rarely been very coercive, partly because Sweden has been a forerunner both on electricity market reform and renewable energy promotion, but that its influence is notable both directly through its emissions trading directive and more indirectly through signalling its intentions and long-term goals. Still, it appears that domestic developments, both cognitive and normative structures in the organizational field, and national policy change remain more instrumental determinants of the changed decision space. (Author)

  3. Democratic Population Decisions Result in Robust Policy-Gradient Learning: A Parametric Study with GPU Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, Paul; Buesing, Lars; Giugliano, Michele; Vasilaki, Eleni

    2011-01-01

    High performance computing on the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) is an emerging field driven by the promise of high computational power at a low cost. However, GPU programming is a non-trivial task and moreover architectural limitations raise the question of whether investing effort in this direction may be worthwhile. In this work, we use GPU programming to simulate a two-layer network of Integrate-and-Fire neurons with varying degrees of recurrent connectivity and investigate its ability to learn a simplified navigation task using a policy-gradient learning rule stemming from Reinforcement Learning. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we want to support the use of GPUs in the field of Computational Neuroscience. Second, using GPU computing power, we investigate the conditions under which the said architecture and learning rule demonstrate best performance. Our work indicates that networks featuring strong Mexican-Hat-shaped recurrent connections in the top layer, where decision making is governed by the formation of a stable activity bump in the neural population (a “non-democratic” mechanism), achieve mediocre learning results at best. In absence of recurrent connections, where all neurons “vote” independently (“democratic”) for a decision via population vector readout, the task is generally learned better and more robustly. Our study would have been extremely difficult on a desktop computer without the use of GPU programming. We present the routines developed for this purpose and show that a speed improvement of 5x up to 42x is provided versus optimised Python code. The higher speed is achieved when we exploit the parallelism of the GPU in the search of learning parameters. This suggests that efficient GPU programming can significantly reduce the time needed for simulating networks of spiking neurons, particularly when multiple parameter configurations are investigated. PMID:21572529

  4. Democratic population decisions result in robust policy-gradient learning: a parametric study with GPU simulations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Richmond

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available High performance computing on the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU is an emerging field driven by the promise of high computational power at a low cost. However, GPU programming is a non-trivial task and moreover architectural limitations raise the question of whether investing effort in this direction may be worthwhile. In this work, we use GPU programming to simulate a two-layer network of Integrate-and-Fire neurons with varying degrees of recurrent connectivity and investigate its ability to learn a simplified navigation task using a policy-gradient learning rule stemming from Reinforcement Learning. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we want to support the use of GPUs in the field of Computational Neuroscience. Second, using GPU computing power, we investigate the conditions under which the said architecture and learning rule demonstrate best performance. Our work indicates that networks featuring strong Mexican-Hat-shaped recurrent connections in the top layer, where decision making is governed by the formation of a stable activity bump in the neural population (a "non-democratic" mechanism, achieve mediocre learning results at best. In absence of recurrent connections, where all neurons "vote" independently ("democratic" for a decision via population vector readout, the task is generally learned better and more robustly. Our study would have been extremely difficult on a desktop computer without the use of GPU programming. We present the routines developed for this purpose and show that a speed improvement of 5x up to 42x is provided versus optimised Python code. The higher speed is achieved when we exploit the parallelism of the GPU in the search of learning parameters. This suggests that efficient GPU programming can significantly reduce the time needed for simulating networks of spiking neurons, particularly when multiple parameter configurations are investigated.

  5. Democratic population decisions result in robust policy-gradient learning: a parametric study with GPU simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, Paul; Buesing, Lars; Giugliano, Michele; Vasilaki, Eleni

    2011-05-04

    High performance computing on the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) is an emerging field driven by the promise of high computational power at a low cost. However, GPU programming is a non-trivial task and moreover architectural limitations raise the question of whether investing effort in this direction may be worthwhile. In this work, we use GPU programming to simulate a two-layer network of Integrate-and-Fire neurons with varying degrees of recurrent connectivity and investigate its ability to learn a simplified navigation task using a policy-gradient learning rule stemming from Reinforcement Learning. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we want to support the use of GPUs in the field of Computational Neuroscience. Second, using GPU computing power, we investigate the conditions under which the said architecture and learning rule demonstrate best performance. Our work indicates that networks featuring strong Mexican-Hat-shaped recurrent connections in the top layer, where decision making is governed by the formation of a stable activity bump in the neural population (a "non-democratic" mechanism), achieve mediocre learning results at best. In absence of recurrent connections, where all neurons "vote" independently ("democratic") for a decision via population vector readout, the task is generally learned better and more robustly. Our study would have been extremely difficult on a desktop computer without the use of GPU programming. We present the routines developed for this purpose and show that a speed improvement of 5x up to 42x is provided versus optimised Python code. The higher speed is achieved when we exploit the parallelism of the GPU in the search of learning parameters. This suggests that efficient GPU programming can significantly reduce the time needed for simulating networks of spiking neurons, particularly when multiple parameter configurations are investigated.

  6. Risk Decision Making Based on Decision-theoretic Rough Set: A Three-way View Decision Model

    OpenAIRE

    Huaxiong Li; Xianzhong Zhou

    2011-01-01

    Rough set theory has witnessed great success in data mining and knowledge discovery, which provides a good support for decision making on a certain data. However, a practical decision problem always shows diversity under the same circumstance according to different personality of the decision makers. A simplex decision model can not provide a full description on such diverse decisions. In this article, a review of Pawlak rough set models and probabilistic rough set models is presented, and a ...

  7. Integrated agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis of BMPs to support decision making and policy design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maroy, E.; Rousseau, A. N.; Hallema, D. W.

    2012-12-01

    With recent efforts and increasing control over point source pollution of freshwater, agricultural non-point pollution sources have become responsible for most of sediment and nutrient loads in North American water systems. Environmental and agricultural agencies have recognised the need for reducing eutrophication and have developed various policies to compel or encourage producers to best management practices (BMPs). Addressing diffuse pollution is challenging considering the complex and cumulative nature of transport processes, high variability in space and time, and prohibitive costs of distributed water quality monitoring. Many policy options exist to push producers to adopt environmentally desirable behaviour while keeping their activity viable, and ensure equitable costs to consumers and tax payers. On the one hand, economic instruments (subsidies, taxes, water quality markets) are designed to maximize cost-effectiveness, so that farmers optimize their production for maximum profit while implementing BMPs. On the other hand, emission standards or regulation of inputs are often easier and less costly to implement. To study economic and environmental impacts of such policies, a distributed modelling approach is needed to deal with the complexity of the system and the large environmental and socio-economic data requirements. Our objective is to integrate agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis to support decision and policy making processes of BMP implementation. The integrated modelling system GIBSI was developed in an earlier study within the Canadian WEBs project (Watershed Evaluation of BMPs) to evaluate the influence of BMPs on water quality. The case study involved 30 and 15 year records of discharge and water quality measurements respectively, in the Beaurivage River watershed (Quebec, Canada). GIBSI provided a risk-based overview of the impact of BMPs (including vegetated riparian buffer strips, precision slurry application, conversion to

  8. Data policy and availability supporting global change research development, and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carroll, B.C.; Jack, R.F.; Cotter, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    An explosion of information has created a crisis for today's information age. We must determine how to use the best available information resources, tools, and technology. To do this, we need to have leadership at the interagency level to promote a coherent information policy. It is also important to find ways to educate the users of information regarding the tools available to them. This paper reports that advances in technology have resulted in efforts to shift from disciplinary and mission-oriented systems to decision support systems and personalized information systems. One such effort is being made by the Interagency Working Group on Data Management for Global Change (IWGDMGC). Five federal agencies - the Department of Commerce (DOC), Department of Energy (DOE), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National Library of Medicine (NLM), and Department of Defense (DoD) - have an ongoing cooperative information management group, Commerce, Energy, NASA, NLM, and Defense Information (CENDI), that is meeting the challenge of coordinating and integrating its information management systems. Although it is beginning to be technically feasible to have a system with text, bibliographic, and numeric data on-line for the user to manipulate at the user's own workstation, promoting its full development will require national recognition that the resource investment in such a system is worthwhile. It also requires close cooperation between the producers and users of the information - that is, the research and policy community and the information community. National resources need to be mobilized in a coordinated manner to move us into the next generation of information support systems

  9. A qualitative study of nulliparous women's decision making on mode of delivery under China's two-child policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Chunyi; Zhu, Xinli; Ding, Yan; Setterberg Simone; Wang, Xiaojiao; Tao, Hua; Zhang, Yu

    2018-03-20

    To explore nulliparous women's perceptions of decision making regarding mode of delivery under China's two-child policy. Qualitative descriptive design with in-depth semi-structured interviews. Postnatal wards at a tertiary specialized women's hospital in Shanghai, China. 21 nulliparous women 2-3 days postpartum were purposively sampled until data saturation. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted between October 8th, 2015 and January 31st, 2016. Two overarching descriptive categories were identified: (1) women's decision-making process: stability versus variability, and (2) factors affecting decision making: variety versus interactivity. Four key themes emerged from each category: (1) initial decision making with certainty: anticipated trial of labour, failed trial of labour, 'shy away' and compromise, anticipated caesarean delivery; (2) initial decision making with uncertainty: anticipated trial of labour, failed trial of labour, 'shy away' and compromise; (3) internal factors affecting decision making: knowledge and attitude, and childbirth self-efficacy; and (4) external factors affecting decision making: social support, and the situational environment. At the initial period of China's two-child policy, nulliparous women have perceived their decision-making process regarding mode of delivery as one with complexity and uncertainty, influenced by both internal and external factors. This may have implications for the obstetric setting to develop a well-designed decision support system for pregnant women during the entire pregnancy periods. And it is recommended that care providers should assess women's preferences for mode of delivery from early pregnancy and provide adequate perinatal support and continuity of care for them. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Video-based patient decision aids: A scoping review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winston, Karin; Grendarova, Petra; Rabi, Doreen

    2017-10-18

    This study reviews the published literature on the use of video-based decision aids (DA) for patients. The authors describe the areas of medicine in which video-based patient DA have been evaluated, the medical decisions targeted, their reported impact, in which countries studies are being conducted, and publication trends. The literature review was conducted systematically using Medline, Embase, CINAHL, PsychInfo, and Pubmed databases from inception to 2016. References of identified studies were reviewed, and hand-searches of relevant journals were conducted. 488 studies were included and organized based on predefined study characteristics. The most common decisions addressed were cancer screening, risk reduction, advance care planning, and adherence to provider recommendations. Most studies had sample sizes of fewer than 300, and most were performed in the United States. Outcomes were generally reported as positive. This field of study was relatively unknown before 1990s but the number of studies published annually continues to increase. Videos are largely positive interventions but there are significant remaining knowledge gaps including generalizability across populations. Clinicians should consider incorporating video-based DA in their patient interactions. Future research should focus on less studied areas and the mechanisms underlying effective patient decision aids. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. A knowledge-based decision support system for payload scheduling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyagi, Rajesh; Tseng, Fan T.

    1988-01-01

    This paper presents the development of a prototype Knowledge-based Decision Support System, currently under development, for scheduling payloads/experiments on space station missions. The DSS is being built on Symbolics, a Lisp machine, using KEE, a commercial knowledge engineering tool.

  12. Data-Based Decision Making in Teams: Enablers and Barriers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolhuis, Erik; Schildkamp, Kim; Voogt, Joke

    2016-01-01

    Data use is becoming more important in higher education. In this case study, a team of teachers from a teacher education college was supported in data-based decision making by means of the data team procedure. This data team studied the reasons why students drop out. A team's success depends in part on whether the team is able to develop and apply…

  13. Multicriteria decision-making method based on a cosine similarity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    the cosine similarity measure is often used in information retrieval, citation analysis, and automatic classification. However, it scarcely deals with trapezoidal fuzzy information and multicriteria decision-making problems. For this purpose, a cosine similarity measure between trapezoidal fuzzy numbers is proposed based on ...

  14. Technical Note: Application of Decision Theory Based Criteria for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Technical Note: Application of Decision Theory Based Criteria for Structural Appraisal of a Building during Construction. ... Nigerian Journal of Technology ... reliability of concrete in a structure during construction, a case study of laboratory block for College of Continuing Education, University of Port Harcourt, Rivers State.

  15. Model based decision support for planning of road maintenance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Harten, Aart; Worm, J.M.; Worm, J.M.

    1996-01-01

    In this article we describe a Decision Support Model, based on Operational Research methods, for the multi-period planning of maintenance of bituminous pavements. This model is a tool for the road manager to assist in generating an optimal maintenance plan for a road. Optimal means: minimising the

  16. Sustainability and urban density a decision based design approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Loon, P.P.; De Graaf, R.

    2011-01-01

    This paper concerns the definition, construction and application of a decision based design model which able the integration of the allocation of a variety of urban land uses with the distribution of different urban densities, in particular of residential urban areas. Urban planning is, among others

  17. Exploring the Impacts of Both Climate Change and Decision Making Uncertainty on Coastal Community Vulnerability Assessments in a Policy-Centric Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, A.; Serafin, K.; Bolte, J.; Ruggiero, P.; Lipiec, E.; Corcoran, P.; Stevenson, J.

    2014-12-01

    Coastal communities throughout the U.S. Pacific Northwest face heightened risk due to sea level rise and increasing storminess resulting in coastal flooding and erosion hazards. Incorporating uncertainty with respect to both climate change and policy decisions is essential for projecting the evolving probability of coastal inundation and erosion, and the associated community vulnerability, through time. Through collaboration with a group of stakeholders in Tillamook County, Oregon, we are co-developing a scenario analysis and modelling tool to explore strategies that may reduce vulnerability to coastal hazards within the context of uncertainty and climate change. We use Envision, a spatially explicit multi-agent modelling platform that provides a scenario-based, policy centric framework for examining interactions between human and natural systems across a landscape. Probabilistic simulations of extreme total water levels along the shoreline allow us to capture the variability of sea level rise, wave climate, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation under a range of climate change scenarios through the end of the century. Additionally, we explore a range of alternative futures related to management decisions and socioeconomic trends as defined with input from stakeholders. Here we quantify the relative contribution of uncertainty from both climate change and policy decisions in terms of multiple landscape metrics including damage to property (e.g. the number of buildings impacted by flooding and erosion). Quantifying uncertainty within the Envision framework will help to improve the usefulness of the model and determine the relative impact of policy and management decisions on the adaptive capacity of Pacific Northwest communities under a range of future climate scenarios.

  18. Analytical evaluation of computer-based decision aids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kisner, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This paper introduces a method for evaluating decision aids for nuclear power plant operators. The method involves a two-stage process of classification and analytical evaluation of display form and content. The classification scheme relates each specific aid to one or more general decision-making tasks. Evaluation then proceeds using a normative top-down design process based on the classification scheme by determining or deducing how various design issues associated with this process were resolved by the designer. The result is an assessment of the ''understandability'' of the aid as well as identification of the training and display features necessary to ensure understandability. 7 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

  19. Explicit representation of confidence informs future value-based decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Folke, Tomas; Jacobsen, Catrine; Fleming, Stephen M.

    2016-01-01

    Humans can reflect on decisions and report variable levels of confidence. But why maintain an explicit representation of confidence for choices that have already been made and therefore cannot be undone? Here we show that an explicit representation of confidence is harnessed for subsequent changes...... of mind. Specifically, when confidence is low, participants are more likely to change their minds when the same choice is presented again, an effect that is most pronounced in participants with greater fidelity in their confidence reports. Furthermore, we show that choices reported with high confidence...... of confidence has a positive impact on the quality of future value-based decisions....

  20. Data warehouse based decision support system in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nadinic, B.

    2004-01-01

    Safety is an important element in business decision making processes in nuclear power plants. Information about component reliability, structures and systems, data recorded during the nuclear power plant's operation and outage periods, as well as experiences from other power plants are located in different database systems throughout the power plant. It would be possible to create a decision support system which would collect data, transform it into a standardized form and store it in a single location in a format more suitable for analyses and knowledge discovery. This single location where the data would be stored would be a data warehouse. Such data warehouse based decision support system could help make decision making processes more efficient by providing more information about business processes and predicting possible consequences of different decisions. Two main functionalities in this decision support system would be an OLAP (On Line Analytical Processing) and a data mining system. An OLAP system would enable the users to perform fast, simple and efficient multidimensional analysis of existing data and identify trends. Data mining techniques and algorithms would help discover new, previously unknown information from the data as well as hidden dependencies between various parameters. Data mining would also enable analysts to create relevant prediction models that could predict behaviour of different systems during operation and inspection results during outages. The basic characteristics and theoretical foundations of such decision support system are described and the reasons for choosing a data warehouse as the underlying structure are explained. The article analyzes obvious business benefits of such system as well as potential uses of OLAP and data mining technologies. Possible implementation methodologies and problems that may arise, especially in the field of data integration, are discussed and analyzed.(author)

  1. Improving transportation networks: Effects of population structure and decision making policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pablo-Martí, Federico; Sánchez, Angel

    2017-07-03

    Transportation networks are one of the fundamental tools for human society to work, more so in our globalized world. The importance of a correct, efficient design of a transportation network for a given region or country cannot be overstated. We here study how network design is affected by the geography of the towns or nuclei to be connected, and also by the decision process necessary to choose which connections should be improved (in a generic sense) first. We begin by establishing that Delaunay networks provide an efficient starting point for the network design and at the same time allow us to introduce a computationally amenable model. Subsequent improvements lead to decentralized designs in geographies where towns are more or less homogeneously distributed, whereas radial designs arise when there is a core-periphery distribution of nodes. We also show that optimization of Delaunay networks outperforms that of complete networks at a lower cost, by allowing for a proper selection of the links to improve. In closing, we draw conclusions relevant to policy making applied to designing transportation networks and point our how our study can be useful to identify mechanisms relevant to the historical development of a region.

  2. Values and ethics in practice-based decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clair, Valerie A Wright-St; Newcombe, Diane B

    2014-06-01

    Values are evident in health ethics literature; however, it is seldom clear how they are visible in practice. The aim of this study was to illuminate how values inform occupational therapists' decision making in practice. Fifteen New Zealand community occupational therapists completed this embedded experimental mixed-methods study. A pre-deliberation questionnaire was completed prior to deliberation of a case study using web-based values transparency software, the Values Exchange, followed by a post-deliberation questionnaire. Categorical data were analyzed using non-parametric statistics. Written responses to open questions were thematically analyzed. Most participants disagreed with the proposed action for the case. Degrees of divergence, concern for dignity and risk, and values-based reasoning were found, revealing how ethical deliberation was values based. IMPLICATIONSs. Recognition and transparency of the values inherent in practice-based decision making is possible and desirable in promoting sound ethical reasoning.

  3. Evidence-based medicine - an appropriate tool for evidence-based health policy? A case study from Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malterud, Kirsti; Bjelland, Anne Karen; Elvbakken, Kari Tove

    2016-03-05

    Evidence-based policy (EBP), a concept modelled on the principles of evidence-based medicine (EBM), is widely used in different areas of policymaking. Systematic reviews (SRs) with meta-analyses gradually became the methods of choice for synthesizing research evidence about interventions and judgements about quality of evidence and strength of recommendations. Critics have argued that the relation between research evidence and service policies is weak, and that the notion of EBP rests on a misunderstanding of policy processes. Having explored EBM standards and knowledge requirements for health policy decision-making, we present an empirical point of departure for discussing the relationship between EBM and EBP. In a case study exploring the Norwegian Knowledge Centre for the Health Services (NOKC), an independent government unit, we first searched for information about the background and development of the NOKC to establish a research context. We then identified, selected and organized official NOKC publications as an empirical sample of typical top-of-the-line knowledge delivery adhering to EBM standards. Finally, we explored conclusions in this type of publication, specifically addressing their potential as policy decision tools. From a total sample of 151 SRs published by the NOKC in the period 2004-2013, a purposive subsample from 2012 (14 publications) advised major caution about their conclusions because of the quality or relevance of the underlying documentation. Although the case study did not include a systematic investigation of uptake and policy consequences, SRs were found to be inappropriate as universal tools for health policy decision-making. The case study demonstrates that EBM is not necessarily suited to knowledge provision for every kind of policy decision-making. Our analysis raises the question of whether the evidence-based movement, represented here by an independent government organization, undertakes too broad a range of commissions using

  4. H.264 SVC Complexity Reduction Based on Likelihood Mode Decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Balaji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available H.264 Advanced Video Coding (AVC was prolonged to Scalable Video Coding (SVC. SVC executes in different electronics gadgets such as personal computer, HDTV, SDTV, IPTV, and full-HDTV in which user demands various scaling of the same content. The various scaling is resolution, frame rate, quality, heterogeneous networks, bandwidth, and so forth. Scaling consumes more encoding time and computational complexity during mode selection. In this paper, to reduce encoding time and computational complexity, a fast mode decision algorithm based on likelihood mode decision (LMD is proposed. LMD is evaluated in both temporal and spatial scaling. From the results, we conclude that LMD performs well, when compared to the previous fast mode decision algorithms. The comparison parameters are time, PSNR, and bit rate. LMD achieve time saving of 66.65% with 0.05% detriment in PSNR and 0.17% increment in bit rate compared with the full search method.

  5. H.264 SVC Complexity Reduction Based on Likelihood Mode Decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balaji, L; Thyagharajan, K K

    2015-01-01

    H.264 Advanced Video Coding (AVC) was prolonged to Scalable Video Coding (SVC). SVC executes in different electronics gadgets such as personal computer, HDTV, SDTV, IPTV, and full-HDTV in which user demands various scaling of the same content. The various scaling is resolution, frame rate, quality, heterogeneous networks, bandwidth, and so forth. Scaling consumes more encoding time and computational complexity during mode selection. In this paper, to reduce encoding time and computational complexity, a fast mode decision algorithm based on likelihood mode decision (LMD) is proposed. LMD is evaluated in both temporal and spatial scaling. From the results, we conclude that LMD performs well, when compared to the previous fast mode decision algorithms. The comparison parameters are time, PSNR, and bit rate. LMD achieve time saving of 66.65% with 0.05% detriment in PSNR and 0.17% increment in bit rate compared with the full search method.

  6. Illicit Drugs, Policing and the Evidence-Based Policy Paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritter, Alison; Lancaster, Kari

    2013-01-01

    The mantra of evidence-based policy (EBP) suggests that endeavours to implement evidence-based policing will produce better outcomes. However there is dissonance between the rhetoric of EBP and the actuality of policing policy. This disjuncture is critically analysed using the case study of illicit drugs policing. The dissonance may be ameliorated…

  7. Base stock policies with degraded service to large orders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Du, Bisheng; Larsen, Christian

    2011-01-01

    We study an inventory system controlled by a base stock policy assuming a compound renewal demand process. We extend the base stock policy by incorporating rules for degrading the service of larger orders. Two specific rules are considered, denoted as Postpone(q,t) and Split(q), respectively...

  8. Base stock policies with degraded service to larger orders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Du, Bisheng; Larsen, Christian

    We study an inventory system controlled by a base stock policy assuming a compound renewal demand process. We extend the base stock policy by incorporating rules for degrading the service of larger orders. Two specific rules are considered, denoted Postpone(q,t) and Split(q), respectively. The aim...

  9. Agent-Based Modeling of Harvest Decisions by Small Scale Forest Landowners in Maine, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica E. Leahy

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Small-scale forests are an excellent example of coupled social-ecological systems, which involve human and biophysical subsystems with complex two-way feedback interactions. The multifaceted nature of landowner decisions drives a significant need to better understand decision-making processes, reactions to policy, and combined impacts on ecosystems in a comprehensive manner. Small-scale forests require an integrated approach to modeling the social and biophysical components comprehensively. Agent-based modeling involves modeling individualistic behavior and interpreting patterns that emerge. The interaction between agents and their environments makes this a valuable tool to assess repeated decisions of individual landowners responding to changing environmental conditions. Agent-based models can be used to determine potential ecological, economic, and social outcomes of landowner decisions and reactions to changing conditions. A forest landowner agent-based model experiment was developed to model timber harvesting in Maine, USA. We present baseline simulation results and compare the effect of a social change (an increased tax rate and a biophysical change (a pest outbreak resulting in increased tree mortality on the system. These three scenarios were analyzed using ANOVA and MANOVA tests on harvested hectares and landowner goal scores to assess landowner behavior and priorities by action. We conclude by reviewing implications for future modeling efforts.

  10. The application of system dynamics modelling to environmental health decision-making and policy - a scoping review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, Danielle J; Smith, Carl; Jagals, Paul

    2018-03-27

    Policy and decision-making processes are routinely challenged by the complex and dynamic nature of environmental health problems. System dynamics modelling has demonstrated considerable value across a number of different fields to help decision-makers understand and predict the dynamic behaviour of complex systems in support the development of effective policy actions. In this scoping review we investigate if, and in what contexts, system dynamics modelling is being used to inform policy or decision-making processes related to environmental health. Four electronic databases and the grey literature were systematically searched to identify studies that intersect the areas environmental health, system dynamics modelling, and decision-making. Studies identified in the initial screening were further screened for their contextual, methodological and application-related relevancy. Studies deemed 'relevant' or 'highly relevant' according to all three criteria were included in this review. Key themes related to the rationale, impact and limitation of using system dynamics in the context of environmental health decision-making and policy were analysed. We identified a limited number of relevant studies (n = 15), two-thirds of which were conducted between 2011 and 2016. The majority of applications occurred in non-health related sectors (n = 9) including transportation, public utilities, water, housing, food, agriculture, and urban and regional planning. Applications were primarily targeted at micro-level (local, community or grassroots) decision-making processes (n = 9), with macro-level (national or international) decision-making to a lesser degree. There was significant heterogeneity in the stated rationales for using system dynamics and the intended impact of the system dynamics model on decision-making processes. A series of user-related, technical and application-related limitations and challenges were identified. None of the reported limitations or challenges

  11. Evidence based policy making in the European Union. The role of the scientific community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majcen, Spela

    2017-01-01

    In the times when the acquis of the European Union (EU) has developed so far as to reach a high level of technical complexity, in particular in certain policy fields such as environmental legislation, it is important to look at what kind of information and data policy decisions are based on. This position paper looks at the extent to which evidence-based decision-making process is being considered in the EU institutions when it comes to adopting legislation in the field of environment at the EU level. The paper calls for closer collaboration between scientists and decision-makers in view of ensuring that correct data is understood and taken into consideration when drafting, amending, negotiating and adopting new legal texts at all levels of the EU decision-making process. It concludes that better awareness of the need for such collaboration among the decision-makers as well as the scientific community would benefit the process and quality of the final outcomes (legislation).

  12. Evidence based policy making in the European Union. The role of the scientific community

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Majcen, Spela [Euro-Mediterranean Univ. (EMUNI), Portoroz (Slovenia)

    2017-03-15

    In the times when the acquis of the European Union (EU) has developed so far as to reach a high level of technical complexity, in particular in certain policy fields such as environmental legislation, it is important to look at what kind of information and data policy decisions are based on. This position paper looks at the extent to which evidence-based decision-making process is being considered in the EU institutions when it comes to adopting legislation in the field of environment at the EU level. The paper calls for closer collaboration between scientists and decision-makers in view of ensuring that correct data is understood and taken into consideration when drafting, amending, negotiating and adopting new legal texts at all levels of the EU decision-making process. It concludes that better awareness of the need for such collaboration among the decision-makers as well as the scientific community would benefit the process and quality of the final outcomes (legislation).

  13. Applying air pollution modelling within a multi-criteria decision analysis framework to evaluate UK air quality policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalabi, Zaid; Milojevic, Ai; Doherty, Ruth M.; Stevenson, David S.; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Milner, James; Vieno, Massimo; Williams, Martin; Wilkinson, Paul

    2017-10-01

    A decision support system for evaluating UK air quality policies is presented. It combines the output from a chemistry transport model, a health impact model and other impact models within a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework. As a proof-of-concept, the MCDA framework is used to evaluate and compare idealized emission reduction policies in four sectors (combustion in energy and transformation industries, non-industrial combustion plants, road transport and agriculture) and across six outcomes or criteria (mortality, health inequality, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, crop yield and air quality legal compliance). To illustrate a realistic use of the MCDA framework, the relative importance of the criteria were elicited from a number of stakeholders acting as proxy policy makers. In the prototype decision problem, we show that reducing emissions from industrial combustion (followed very closely by road transport and agriculture) is more advantageous than equivalent reductions from the other sectors when all the criteria are taken into account. Extensions of the MCDA framework to support policy makers in practice are discussed.

  14. Policy-Based Approach to Emergency Bio-Data Management for Mobile Healthcare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seung-Man Chun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In m-healthcare service, accurate detection and notification of emergency situation are critical to chronic patients' life. Since they are usually performed by a limited number of medical staff, it is difficult to simultaneously support many patients in real-time. This article presents an architecture to support the emergency bio-data management for m-healthcare service using personalized emergency policy. The salient feature of the proposed architecture is that the decision on emergency is made using personalized emergency policy. Specifically, the structure of the detailed system components has also been designed. The emergency condition of the individual bio-data collected from wireless body area network is detected automatically using personalized emergency policy. The message flow diagram based on the personalized emergency policy is described. This enables quick emergency rescue service provided to the patient both accurately and immediately. The prototype of proposed system has been built to demonstrate the design concept.

  15. Optimal pricing and lot-sizing decisions under Weibull distribution deterioration and trade credit policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manna S.K.

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of simultaneous determination of retail price and lot-size (RPLS under the assumption that the supplier offers a fixed credit period to the retailer. It is assumed that the item in stock deteriorates over time at a rate that follows a two-parameter Weibull distribution and that the price-dependent demand is represented by a constant-price-elasticity function of retail price. The RPLS decision model is developed and solved analytically. Results are illustrated with the help of a base example. Computational results show that the supplier earns more profits when the credit period is greater than the replenishment cycle length. Sensitivity analysis of the solution to changes in the value of input parameters of the base example is also discussed.

  16. Multiple Attribute Decision Making Based on Cross-Evaluation with Uncertain Decision Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Ding

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Multiple attribute decision making (MADM problem is one of the most common and popular research fields in the theory of decision science. A variety of methods have been proposed to deal with such problems. Nevertheless, many of them assumed that attribute weights are determined by different types of additional preference information which will result in subjective decision making. In order to solve such problems, in this paper, we propose a novel MADM approach based on cross-evaluation with uncertain parameters. Specifically, the proposed approach assumes that all attribute weights are uncertain. It can overcome the drawback in prior research that the alternatives’ ranking may be determined by a single attribute with an overestimated weight. In addition, the proposed method can also balance the mean and deviation of each alternative’s cross-evaluation score to guarantee the stability of evaluation. Then, this method is extended to a more generalized situation where the attribute values are also uncertain. Finally, we illustrate the applicability of the proposed method by revisiting two reported studies and by a case study on the selection of community service companies in the city of Hefei in China.

  17. Development of policies for Natura 2000 sites: a multi-criteria approach to support decision makers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortina, Carla; Boggia, Antonio

    2014-08-01

    The aim of this study is to present a methodology to support decision makers in the choice of Natura 2000 sites needing an appropriate management plan to ensure a sustainable socio-economic development. In order to promote sustainable development in the Natura 2000 sites compatible with nature preservation, conservation measures or management plans are necessary. The main issue is to decide when only conservation measures can be applied and when the sites need an appropriate management plan. We present a case study for the Italian Region of Umbria. The methodology is based on a multi-criteria approach to identify the biodiversity index (BI), and on the development of a human activities index (HAI). By crossing the two indexes for each site on a Cartesian plane, four groups of sites were identified. Each group corresponds to a specific need for an appropriate management plan. Sites in the first group with a high level both of biodiversity and human activities have the most urgent need of an appropriate management plan to ensure sustainable development. The proposed methodology and analysis is replicable in other regions or countries by using the data available for each site in the Natura 2000 standard data form. A multi-criteria analysis is especially suitable for supporting decision makers when they deal with a multidimensional decision process. We found the multi-criteria approach particularly sound in this case, due to the concept of biodiversity itself, which is complex and multidimensional, and to the high number of alternatives (Natura 2000 sites) to be assessed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Integrating technical analysis and public values in risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohnenblust, Hans; Slovic, Paul

    1998-01-01

    Simple technical analysis cannot capture the complex scope of preferences or values of society and individuals. However, decision making needs to be sustained by formal analysis. The paper describes a policy framework which incorporates both technical analysis and aspects of public values. The framework can be used as a decision supporting tool and helps decision makers to make more informed and more transparent decisions about safety issues

  19. What defines 'enough' information? How policy workers make judgements and decisions during information seeking: preliminary results from an exploratory study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.M. Berryman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Reports findings from research in progress investigating judgment and decision making during information seeking in the workplace, in particular, the assessment of enough information. Characteristics of this judgment and the role of context in shaping it are framed against theories of human judgment and decision making. Method. Thirty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted with public sector policy workers in Australia. Two interviews were carried out, the first with individual participants and the second, a joint interview with two participants. Interviews were taped and transcribed and inductive data analysis carried out. Findings. Findings discussed in this paper focus on contextual factors that frame policy workers' judgment and decision making while information seeking, factors including ill-structured problems, shifting goals, time stress and action-feedback loops. Also revealed was the importance of developing a framework, against which the judgment of enough information can be made, and the fluid and iterative nature of these judgments. Conclusion. The contextual factors reported show similarities with those identified by naturalistic decision making researchers, suggesting this new field of decision theory has much to offer researchers into information seeking in context.

  20. The need to go beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahearne, J.F.

    1999-01-01

    As a physicist, I prefer the R = P x C, with the inclusion of a risk magnifier when appropriate. However, I also accept this is inadequate. For risk-based decisions to be acceptable in a democratic society, there must be widespread agreement on the criteria to be used, the process by which the decision is reached, and the linkage between the criteria and the decision. These demand a transparent process. Armour wrote: 'To date, efforts directed toward facility siting conflicts have focused almost exclusively on the 'public acceptance' factor (and neglected the legitimacy of the process] - the sad reality is that these strategies have not been all that effective. Moreover, given that the underlying motivation is to 'gain public acceptance' such strategies have often worsened the facility siting problems when used by proponents who were unable, in appearance or in fact, to tread the fine line between manipulating public opinion and liberating it ... the issue of the legitimacy of the decision making process had tended to be taken for granted. Generally speaking, policy makers have failed to seriously question and have not responded well to others who have dared to question the established roles and principles of our conventional processes of decision making.' Finally, acceptance also requires agreement that the issues to be decided are the appropriate issues. Often the decision-makers concentrate on issues that are not the ones the public views as the most important. Sometimes it is because the public wants other alternatives examined. Sometimes it is because the public does not accept the necessity to decide now. And sometimes it is because the public does not trust those who have assumed responsibility for making the decision. The analytic community has grown in size and skill over the last 20 years. The science community has produced a better understanding of health effects and exposure pathways. The engineering community has designed safer systems. However, the

  1. The need to go beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahearne, J.F. [The Sigma XI Center, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)

    1999-12-01

    As a physicist, I prefer the R = P x C, with the inclusion of a risk magnifier when appropriate. However, I also accept this is inadequate. For risk-based decisions to be acceptable in a democratic society, there must be widespread agreement on the criteria to be used, the process by which the decision is reached, and the linkage between the criteria and the decision. These demand a transparent process. Armour wrote: 'To date, efforts directed toward facility siting conflicts have focused almost exclusively on the 'public acceptance' factor (and neglected the legitimacy of the process] - the sad reality is that these strategies have not beenall that effective. Moreover, given that the underlying motivation is to 'gain public acceptance' such strategies have often worsened the facility siting problems when used by proponents who were unable, in appearance or in fact, to tread the fine line between manipulating public opinion and liberating it ... the issue of the legitimacy of the decision making process had tended to be taken for granted. Generally speaking, policy makers have failed to seriously question and have not responded well to others who have dared to question the established roles and principles of our conventional processes of decision making.' Finally, acceptance also requires agreement that the issues to be decided are the appropriate issues. Often the decision-makers concentrate on issues that are not the ones the public views as the most important. Sometimes it is because the public wants other alternatives examined. Sometimes it is because the public does not accept the necessity to decide now. And sometimes it is because the public does not trust those who have assumed responsibility for making the decision. The analytic community has grown in size and skill over the last 20 years. The science community has produced a better understanding of health effects and exposure pathways. The engineering community has designed

  2. Decision makers, scientists and the public as stakeholders: the connection between traffic intervention policy and air quality in a local context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiand, L.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Schmitz, S.; Niehoff, N.

    2017-12-01

    Urban mobility is a key issue to make cities more inclusive, safer, and more environmentally friendly. To ensure a sustainable future, local policy should, among other actions, aim to improve access to sustainable transport systems and enhance mobility opportunities, while at the same time addressing critical environmental and health targets. In order to assess whether these objectives are met, measures should be informed and evaluated from a social and environmental perspective. Citizens' opinions and the acceptance of environmental policies are crucial to successful implementation of urban mobility measures. The complexity of urban air quality issues require transparent decision-making processes that are grounded in evidence-based research and embrace local knowledge. From this basis, our research group and the city council collaborated to assess a new policy action intended to address environmental and health targets. This talk will present the results from the assessment of this new policy, that was implemented in large part to alleviate air quality exceedances, from the perspective of public acceptability of the measure and the approach taken by the city council to implement the measure. Parallel to assessing the effect of this policy on the recorded levels of air pollution and traffic counts, we conducted a social survey to examine public opinions of this measure, as well as the link between air quality awareness and mobility decisions. 4661 responses were collected over a one month period. Survey participants were those most affected by the traffic measure, including commuters and local residents. The results show that there is an overall low acceptance rate of the measure (8%) as well as low concern for air quality (2,90 - where 1 = not concerned and 6 = very concerned). We also found that there is a negative relationship between air quality rating and air quality concern. A similar approach was taken to understand climate change concern, which will be

  3. Agent-Based Modeling of Consumer Decision making Process Based on Power Distance and Personality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roozmand, O.; Ghasem-Aghaee, N.; Hofstede, G.J.; Nematbakhsh, M.A.; Baraani, A.; Verwaart, T.

    2011-01-01

    Simulating consumer decision making processes involves different disciplines such as: sociology, social psychology, marketing, and computer science. In this paper, we propose an agent-based conceptual and computational model of consumer decision-making based on culture, personality and human needs.

  4. Nuclear emergency response planning based on participatory decision analytic approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinkko, K.

    2004-10-01

    This work was undertaken in order to develop methods and techniques for evaluating systematically and comprehensively protective action strategies in the case of a nuclear or radiation emergency. This was done in a way that the concerns and issues of all key players related to decisions on protective actions could be aggregated into decision- making transparently and in an equal manner. An approach called facilitated workshop, based on the theory of Decision Analysis, was tailored and tested in the planning of actions to be taken. The work builds on case studies in which it was assumed that a hypothetical accident in a nuclear power plant had led to a release of considerable amounts of radionuclides and therefore different types of protective actions should be considered. Altogether six workshops were organised in which all key players were represented, i.e., the authorities, expert organisations, industry and agricultural producers. The participants were those responsible for preparing advice or presenting matters for those responsible for the formal decision-making. Many preparatory meetings were held with various experts to prepare information for the workshops. It was considered essential that the set-up strictly follow the decision- making process to which the key players are accustomed. Key players or stakeholders comprise responsible administrators and organisations, politicians as well as representatives of the citizens affected and other persons who will and are likely to take part in decision-making in nuclear emergencies. The realistic nature and the disciplined process of a facilitated workshop and commitment to decision-making yielded up insight in many radiation protection issues. The objectives and attributes which are considered in a decision on protective actions were discussed in many occasions and were defined for different accident scenario to come. In the workshops intervention levels were derived according justification and optimisation

  5. Use of monitoring data to support conservation management and policy decisions in Micronesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montambault, Jensen Reitz; Wongbusarakum, Supin; Leberer, Trina; Joseph, Eugene; Andrew, Wayne; Castro, Fran; Nevitt, Brooke; Golbuu, Yimnang; Oldiais, Noelle W; Groves, Craig R; Kostka, Willy; Houk, Peter

    2015-10-01

    Adaptive management implies a continuous knowledge-based decision-making process in conservation. Yet, the coupling of scientific monitoring and management frameworks remains rare in practice because formal and informal communication pathways are lacking. We examined 4 cases in Micronesia where conservation practitioners are using new knowledge in the form of monitoring data to advance marine conservation. These cases were drawn from projects in Micronesia Challenge jurisdictions that received funding for coupled monitoring-to-management frameworks and encompassed all segments of adaptive management. Monitoring in Helen Reef, Republic of Palau, was catalyzed by coral bleaching and revealed evidence of overfishing that led to increased enforcement and outreach. In Nimpal Channel, Yap, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), monitoring the recovery of marine food resources after customary restrictions were put in place led to new, more effective enforcement approaches. Monitoring in Laolao Bay, Saipan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, was catalyzed by observable sediment loads from poor land-use practices and resulted in actions that reduced land-based threats, particularly littering and illegal burning, and revealed additional threats from overfishing. Pohnpei (FSM) began monitoring after observed declines in grouper spawning aggregations. This data led to adjusting marine conservation area boundaries and implementing market-based size class restrictions. Two themes emerged from these cases. First, in each case monitoring was conducted in a manner relevant to the social and ecological systems and integrated into the decision-making process. Second, conservation practitioners and scientists in these cases integrated culturally appropriate stakeholder engagement throughout all phases of the adaptive management cycle. More broadly, our study suggests, when describing adaptive management, providing more details on how monitoring and management activities are

  6. Towards Proactive Policies supporting Event-based Task Delegation

    OpenAIRE

    Gaaloul, Khaled; Miseldine, Philip; Charoy, François

    2009-01-01

    International audience; Delegation mechanisms are receiving increasing interest from the research community. Task delegation is a mechanism that supports organisational flexibility in the human-centric workflow systems, and ensures delegation of authority in access control systems. In this paper, we consider task delegation as an advanced security mechanism supporting policy decision. We define an approach to support dynamic delegation of authority within an access control framework. The nove...

  7. Assessing the Atmospheric Pollution of Energy Facilities for Supporting Energy Policy Decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meneses Ruiz, E.; Alonso García, D.; Pérez Zayas, G.; Piñera Hernández, I.; Martinez Varona, M.; Molina Esquivel, E.

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of different energy facilities on the environment and human health are a matter of interest and concern throughout the world. For example, fossil fuels are one of the energy sources of more undesirable effects on the environment, but this energy is still one of the most competitive at the market, especially for the developing countries. However, it is necessary to find out a balance between the costs of achieving a lower level of environmental and health injury and the benefits of providing electricity at a reasonable cost. With a view to solving the current deficit in energy production (mainly in electricity generation) in the light of major transformations in the energy sector, the Cuban Government is evaluating ways of incorporating new sources and technologies and the expansion of existing capabilities. In this context non-fossil energy sources will play an increasingly important role. The present work shows the results obtained in the frame of the IAEA Technical Cooperation Project CUB7007. The project integrated several tools and methodologies in the field of air quality modelling and its assessment, emissions measurement and nuclear techniques. The main objective was to assess atmospheric pollution from various energy facilities for supporting energy policy decisions by incorporating nuclear techniques (proton-induced X–ray emission, neutron activation and X–ray fluorescence) for estimating the elementary composition of particulate matter. As results were consolidated national laboratories in the application of nuclear and nonnuclear techniques to support environmental studies, especially for the analysis of emissions in chimneys and ambient air sampling. Moreover, all energy technologies considered in the national strategy of development were assessed. (author)

  8. Development of hybrid artificial intelligent based handover decision algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.M. Aibinu

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The possibility of seamless handover remains a mirage despite the plethora of existing handover algorithms. The underlying factor responsible for this has been traced to the Handover decision module in the Handover process. Hence, in this paper, the development of novel hybrid artificial intelligent handover decision algorithm has been developed. The developed model is made up of hybrid of Artificial Neural Network (ANN based prediction model and Fuzzy Logic. On accessing the network, the Received Signal Strength (RSS was acquired over a period of time to form a time series data. The data was then fed to the newly proposed k-step ahead ANN-based RSS prediction system for estimation of prediction model coefficients. The synaptic weights and adaptive coefficients of the trained ANN was then used to compute the k-step ahead ANN based RSS prediction model coefficients. The predicted RSS value was later codified as Fuzzy sets and in conjunction with other measured network parameters were fed into the Fuzzy logic controller in order to finalize handover decision process. The performance of the newly developed k-step ahead ANN based RSS prediction algorithm was evaluated using simulated and real data acquired from available mobile communication networks. Results obtained in both cases shows that the proposed algorithm is capable of predicting ahead the RSS value to about ±0.0002 dB. Also, the cascaded effect of the complete handover decision module was also evaluated. Results obtained show that the newly proposed hybrid approach was able to reduce ping-pong effect associated with other handover techniques.

  9. Knowledge based decision making: perspective on natural gas production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ydstie, B. Erik; Stuland, Kjetil M.

    2009-07-01

    Conclusions (drawn by the author): Decarbonization of energy sources - From coal to renewable. Natural Gas Abundantly available - Norway is no. 3 exporter. Natural gas important as - Hydrogen source for chemicals; - Electricity; - End consumer usage (heating etc). Large potential for application of model based decision making; - Where and when to install platforms and drill wells - How to operate platforms and pipeline systems; - How to operate and optimize chemical production; - Optimization of electricity generation systems. (author)

  10. Teenagers' licensing decisions and their views of licensing policies: a national survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Allan F

    2011-08-01

    One objective was to determine teenage licensing rates on a national basis, interest in early licensure, and reasons for delay. A second objective was to learn teenagers' opinions about licensing policies, important in states considering ways to upgrade their current licensing systems. One thousand three hundred eighty-three 15- to 18-year-olds completed an online survey in November 2010. They were drawn from a nationally representative panel of US households recruited using probability-based sampling. The panel included cell phone-only households, and Internet access was provided to those without it. Weighting procedures were applied so that the study population represented the national US population of 15- to 18-year-olds. Most teens said that they were interested in getting a license as soon as legally possible, but many had not started the process. At 16, teens were about equally divided among those who had not started, those in the learner stage, and those with a restricted or full license. At 18, 62 percent had full licenses; 22 percent had not started. For those old enough to start, lack of a car, costs, parent availability, ability to get around without a car, and being busy with other activities were leading reasons for delay. The majority of teens were not in favor of higher licensing ages. Forty-six percent thought the minimum learner age should be 16; 30 percent thought the full license age should be 18 or older. The majority approved of night (78%) and passenger (57%) restrictions, and 85 and 93 percent endorsed cell phone and texting bans, respectively. When these policies were packaged together in a single law that included an age 16 start, night, passenger, cell phone and texting bans, and a full license at age 18, 74 percent of teens were in favor. Teenagers are not as supportive of strong licensing policies as parents of teens, but there is evidence that they will support comprehensive policies likely to lead to further reductions in teen crash

  11. Policy-Based Negotiation Engine for Cross-Domain Interoperability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vatan, Farrokh; Chow, Edward T.

    2012-01-01

    A successful policy negotiation scheme for Policy-Based Management (PBM) has been implemented. Policy negotiation is the process of determining the "best" communication policy that all of the parties involved can agree on. Specifically, the problem is how to reconcile the various (and possibly conflicting) communication protocols used by different divisions. The solution must use protocols available to all parties involved, and should attempt to do so in the best way possible. Which protocols are commonly available, and what the definition of "best" is will be dependent on the parties involved and their individual communications priorities.

  12. The Knowledge Base for State Policy: Status, Needs, and Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tushnet, Naida C.

    A task of regional educational laboratories is to provide information to state and local education policy makers. The new focus on policy reflects a change in the labs' knowledge base and audience. The subsequent move into the political arena has created risks for the labs, which have responded to the new task in different ways. The nature of the…

  13. Strengthening Research Capacity and Evidence-Based Policy ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    ... wider Central Asian region lack capacity to conduct empirical analysis and create policies based on research evidence. To address government priorities, the region needs quality research driven by local demands and analytical skills that can inform effective development responses through policy. This 39-month project, ...

  14. Shared Decision Making in Intensive Care Units: An American College of Critical Care Medicine and American Thoracic Society Policy Statement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kon, Alexander A.; Davidson, Judy E.; Morrison, Wynne; Danis, Marion; White, Douglas B.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Shared decision-making (SDM) is endorsed by critical care organizations, however there remains confusion about what SDM is, when it should be used, and approaches to promote partnerships in treatment decisions. The purpose of this statement is to define SDM, recommend when SDM should be used, identify the range of ethically acceptable decision-making models, and present important communication skills. Methods The American College of Critical Care Medicine (ACCM) and American Thoracic Society (ATS) Ethics Committees reviewed empirical research and normative analyses published in peer-reviewed journals to generate recommendations. Recommendations approved by consensus of the full Ethics Committees of ACCM and ATS were included in the statement. Main Results Six recommendations were endorsed: 1) Definition: Shared decision-making is a collaborative process that allows patients, or their surrogates, and clinicians to make health care decisions together, taking into account the best scientific evidence available, as well as the patient’s values, goals, and preferences. 2) Clinicians should engage in a SDM process to define overall goals of care (including decisions regarding limiting or withdrawing life-prolonging interventions) and when making major treatment decisions that may be affected by personal values, goals, and preferences. 3) Clinicians should use as their “default” approach a SDM process that includes three main elements: information exchange, deliberation, and making a treatment decision. 4) A wide range of decision-making approaches are ethically supportable including patient- or surrogate-directed and clinician-directed models. Clinicians should tailor the decision-making process based on the preferences of the patient or surrogate. 5) Clinicians should be trained in communication skills. 6) Research is needed to evaluate decision-making strategies. Conclusions Patient and surrogate preferences for decision-making roles regarding value

  15. Bringing the ecosystem services concept into marine management decisions, supporting ecosystems-based management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tweddle, J. F.; Byg, A.; Davies, I.; Gubbins, M.; Irvine, K.; Kafas, A.; Kenter, J.; MacDonald, A.; Murray, R. B. O.; Potts, T.; Slater, A. M.; Wright, K.; Scott, B. E.

    2016-12-01

    The marine environment is under increasing use, putting pressure on marine ecosystems and increasing competition for space. New activities (e.g. renewable energy developments), evolving marine policies (e.g. implementation of marine protected areas), and climate change may drive changes in biodiversity and resulting ecosystem services (ES) that society and business utilise from coastal and marine systems. A process is needed that integrates ecological assessment of changes with stakeholder perceptions and valuation of ES, whilst balancing ease of application with the ability to deal with complex social-economic-ecological issues. The project "Cooperative participatory assessment of the impact of renewable technology on ecosystem services: CORPORATES" involved natural and social scientists, law and policy experts, and marine managers, with the aim of promoting more integrated decision making using ES concepts in marine management. CORPORATES developed a process to bring ES concepts into stakeholders' awareness. The interactive process, involving 2 workshops, employs interludes of knowledge exchange by experts on ecological processes underpinning ES and on law and policy. These enable mapping of benefits linked to activities, participatory system modelling, and deliberation of policy impacts on different sectors. The workshops were attended by industry representatives, regulatory/advisory partners, and other stakeholders (NGOs, SMEs, recreationalists, local government). Mixed sector groups produced new insights into links between activities and ES, and highlighted cross-sector concerns. Here we present the aspects of the process that successfully built shared understanding between industry and stakeholders of inter-linkages and interactions between ES, benefits, activities, and economic and cultural values. These methods provide an ES-based decision-support model for exchanging societal-ecological knowledge and providing stakeholder interaction in marine planning

  16. Policy design and performance of emissions trading markets: an adaptive agent-based analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bing, Zhang; Qinqin, Yu; Jun, Bi

    2010-08-01

    Emissions trading is considered to be a cost-effective environmental economic instrument for pollution control. However, the pilot emissions trading programs in China have failed to bring remarkable success in the campaign for pollution control. The policy design of an emissions trading program is found to have a decisive impact on its performance. In this study, an artificial market for sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions trading applying the agent-based model was constructed. The performance of the Jiangsu SO2 emissions trading market under different policy design scenario was also examined. Results show that the market efficiency of emissions trading is significantly affected by policy design and existing policies. China's coal-electricity price system is the principal factor influencing the performance of the SO2 emissions trading market. Transaction costs would also reduce market efficiency. In addition, current-level emissions discharge fee/tax and banking mechanisms do not distinctly affect policy performance. Thus, applying emissions trading in emission control in China should consider policy design and interaction with other existing policies.

  17. New directions in evidence-based policy research: a critical analysis of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Kathryn; Lorenc, Theo; Innvær, Simon

    2014-07-14

    Despite 40 years of research into evidence-based policy (EBP) and a continued drive from both policymakers and researchers to increase research uptake in policy, barriers to the use of evidence are persistently identified in the literature. However, it is not clear what explains this persistence - whether they represent real factors, or if they are artefacts of approaches used to study EBP. Based on an updated review, this paper analyses this literature to explain persistent barriers and facilitators. We critically describe the literature in terms of its theoretical underpinnings, definitions of 'evidence', methods, and underlying assumptions of research in the field, and aim to illuminate the EBP discourse by comparison with approaches from other fields. Much of the research in this area is theoretically naive, focusing primarily on the uptake of research evidence as opposed to evidence defined more broadly, and privileging academics' research priorities over those of policymakers. Little empirical data analysing the processes or impact of evidence use in policy is available to inform researchers or decision-makers. EBP research often assumes that policymakers do not use evidence and that more evidence - meaning research evidence - use would benefit policymakers and populations. We argue that these assumptions are unsupported, biasing much of EBP research. The agenda of 'getting evidence into policy' has side-lined the empirical description and analysis of how research and policy actually interact in vivo. Rather than asking how research evidence can be made more influential, academics should aim to understand what influences and constitutes policy, and produce more critically and theoretically informed studies of decision-making. We question the main assumptions made by EBP researchers, explore the implications of doing so, and propose new directions for EBP research, and health policy.

  18. Choosing a Commercial Broiler Strain Based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hosseini SA

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available With the complexity and amount of information in a wide variety of comparative performance reports in poultry production, making a decision is difficult. This problem is overcomed only when all data can be put into a common unit. For this purpose, five different decision making analysis approaches including  Maximin, Equally likely, Weighted average, Ordered weighted averages and Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution were used to choose the best broiler strain among three ones based on their comparative performance and carcass characteristics. Commercial broiler strains of 6000 designated as R, A, and C (each strain 2000 were randomly allocated into three treatments of five replicates. In this study, all methods showed similar results except Maximin approach. Comparing different methods indicated that strain C with the highest world share market has the best performance followed by strains R and A.

  19. Cognitive Adaptability: The Role of Metacognition and Feedback in Entrepreneural Decision Policies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Haynie, James M

    2005-01-01

    ..." cognitive strategies to promote cognitive adaptability, which I define as the ability to appropriately evolve individual decision-frameworks in concert with a changing and uncertain environment...

  20. Strengthening advocacy efforts with empirical evidence: A case example of the conduct, uptake and utilisation of research in drug policy decision-making in Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuong, Thu; Ritter, Alison; Nguyen, Nhu; Ali, Robert

    2017-11-01

    During the last decade, international aid agencies and advocates have been working with Southeast Asian governments to move away from punitive responses towards people who use drugs to more public health, humane approaches. The lack of local scientific evidence about the effectiveness of different treatment approaches has made this advocacy work more challenging. This paper reflects on a generation of treatment research evidence and how it can assist advocacy efforts. The case example is the cost-effectiveness research, comparing centre-based compulsory treatment with community-based voluntary methadone maintenance treatment in Vietnam (2012-2015). Using our long-term and on-going connections with key Vietnamese decision-makers and government agencies, our collective experiences in drug policy advocacy and our unique insight into the working of government in Vietnam, we have used strategies to maximise opportunities for research to inform policy discussions. We have made an assessment here about the extent to which study findings have contributed to policy change in Vietnam and the challenges that impede progressive policy implementation. In doing this, we hope to make a contribution to the research evidence use literature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. National Immunization Commission: strengthening evidence-based decision making in Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stecher, Daniel; Gaiano, Alejandra; Biscayart, Cristián; Gentile, Angela; Ayala, Silvia Gonzalez; López, Eduardo; Bonvehí, Pablo; Yedlin, Pablo; Janusz, Cara; Vizzotti, Carla

    2014-04-01

    In Argentina, the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunizations is represented by the National Immunization Commission (CoNaIn), an organization created by the Ministry of Health in 2000. Recently, the Argentine government has decided to prioritize vaccination as a state policy, emphasizing this strategy as a sign of social equity so CoNaIn was restructured to increase its capacity to formulate sound and evidence-based recommendations. The commission shall consist of a group of immunization experts, representatives of scientific societies, the immunization program and the Ministry of Health. Its functions include the formulation of recommendations on the introduction of vaccines into the immunization program. The recommendations are based on technical, programmatic and social criteria. This decision-making process transparent with the support and advice of experts and scientific societies and guided by available evidence decisions help strengthen the Ministry of Health immunization policy generating greater confidence and support from the population and health professionals. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. The Adoption Alternative for Pregnant Adolescents: Decision Making, Consequences, and Policy Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobol, Michael P.; Daly, Kerry J.

    1992-01-01

    Reviews issues surrounding adoption as an option for resolving teen crisis pregnancies. Examines the decision-making processes and social psychological consequences of adoption as a distinct phenomenon, including adoption rates and characteristics, factors influencing the adoption decision, birth mother response to adoption placement, and social…

  3. Decomposition-Based Decision Making for Aerospace Vehicle Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borer, Nicholas K.; Mavris, DImitri N.

    2005-01-01

    reader to observe how this technique can be applied to aerospace systems design and compare the results of this so-called Decomposition-Based Decision Making to more traditional design approaches.

  4. Space-time clustering analysis of wildfires: The influence of dataset characteristics, fire prevention policy decisions, weather and climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parente, Joana; Pereira, Mário G; Tonini, Marj

    2016-07-15

    The present study focuses on the dependence of the space-time permutation scan statistics (STPSS) (1) on the input database's characteristics and (2) on the use of this methodology to assess changes on the fire regime due to different type of climate and fire management activities. Based on the very strong relationship between weather and the fire incidence in Portugal, the detected clusters will be interpreted in terms of the atmospheric conditions. Apart from being the country most affected by the fires in the European context, Portugal meets all the conditions required to carry out this study, namely: (i) two long and comprehensive official datasets, i.e. the Portuguese Rural Fire Database (PRFD) and the National Mapping Burnt Areas (NMBA), respectively based on ground and satellite measurements; (ii) the two types of climate (Csb in the north and Csa in the south) that characterizes the Mediterranean basin regions most affected by the fires also divide the mainland Portuguese area; and, (iii) the national plan for the defence of forest against fires was approved a decade ago and it is now reasonable to assess its impacts. Results confirmed (1) the influence of the dataset's characteristics on the detected clusters, (2) the existence of two different fire regimes in the country promoted by the different types of climate, (3) the positive impacts of the fire prevention policy decisions and (4) the ability of the STPSS to correctly identify clusters, regarding their number, location, and space-time size in spite of eventual space and/or time splits of the datasets. Finally, the role of the weather on days when clustered fires were active was confirmed for the classes of small, medium and large fires. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Applying decision-making tools to national e-waste recycling policy: an example of Analytic Hierarchy Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chun-Hsu; Wen, Lihchyi; Tsai, Yue-Mi

    2010-05-01

    As policy making is in essence a process of discussion, decision-making tools have in many cases been proposed to resolve the differences of opinion among the different parties. In our project that sought to promote a country's performance in recycling, we used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to evaluate the possibilities and determine the priority of the addition of new mandatory recycled waste, also referred to as Due Recycled Wastes, from candidate waste appliances. The evaluation process started with the collection of data based on telephone interviews and field investigations to understand the behavior of consumers as well as their overall opinions regarding the disposal of certain waste appliances. With the data serving as background information, the research team then implemented the Analytic Hierarchy Process using the information that formed an incomplete hierarchy structure in order to determine the priority for recycling. Since the number of objects to be evaluated exceeded the number that the AHP researchers had suggested, we reclassified the objects into four groups and added one more level of pair-wise comparisons, which substantially reduced the inconsistency in the judgment of the AHP participants. The project was found to serve as a flexible and achievable application of AHP to the environmental policy-making process. In addition, based on the project's outcomes derived from the project as a whole, the research team drew conclusions regarding the government's need to take back 15 of the items evaluated, and suggested instruments that could be used or recycling regulations that could be changed in the future. Further analysis on the top three items recommended by the results of the evaluation for recycling, namely, Compact Disks, Cellular Phones and Computer Keyboards, was then conducted to clarify their concrete feasibility. After the trial period for recycling ordered by the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration, only Computer

  6. Human Dignity as Leading Principle in Public Health Ethics: A Multi-Case Analysis of 21st Century German Health Policy Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Sebastian F; Winter, Stefan F

    2017-06-10

    There is ample evidence that since the turn of the millennium German health policy made a considerable step towards prevention and health promotion, putting the strategies of 'personal empowerment' and 'settings based approach' high on the federal government's agenda. This phenomenon has challenged the role of ethics in health policy. Concurrently, increasing relevance of the Concept of Human Dignity for health and human rights has been discussed. However, a direct relationship between Human Dignity and Public Health Ethics (PHE) has surprisingly not yet been established. We here conduct a systematic ethical analysis of eminent German health prevention policy case-examples between the years 2000-2016. Specifically, our analysis seeks to adapt and apply the principalism (autonomy, beneficence, justice)-based Concept of Human Dignity of Italian philosopher Corrado Viafora, contextualizing it with the emerging field of PHE. To further inform this health policy analysis, index databases (PubMed, Google Scholar) were searched to include relevant published and grey literature. We observe a systematic approach of post-millennial health policy decisions on prevention and on defined health targets in Germany, exemplified by (1) the fostering of the preparedness against pandemic infectious diseases, (2) the development and implementation of the first cancer vaccination, (3) major legal provisions on non-smokers protection in the public domain, (4) acts to strengthen long term care (LTC) as well as (5) the new German E-Health legislation. The ethical analysis of these health prevention decisions exhibits their profound ongoing impact on social justice, probing their ability to meet the underlying Concept of Human Dignity in order to fulfill the requirements of the principle of non-maleficence. The observed health policy focus on prevention and health promotion has sparked new public debates about the formation of/compliance with emerging standards of PHE in Germany. We

  7. Using Collaborative Modeling to Inform Policy Decisions in the Bow River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheer, A. S.; Sheer, D. P.; Hill, D.

    2011-12-01

    The Bow River in Alberta, Canada serves a wide range of municipal, agricultural, recreational, and industrial purposes in the province. In 2006, the basin was deemed over-allocation and closed to new licenses. The Calgary region, however, continues to expand. In the next 60 to 70 years, population levels are expected to reach 2.8 million (more than double the current 1.2 million) with 800,000 new jobs. This increasing pressure led several stakeholders to work together in the development of a new management model to improve the management of the system as an integrated watershed. The major previous model of the system allowed only limited flexibility in management, focusing instead on strict license based operations. Over a 6 month period, with numerous multi-party meetings, the group developed the Bow River Operations Model (BROM). Based in OASIS software, this model integrated input from the major water users in the region to emulate the real-life decisions that are actually made on a daily bases, even when technically in violation of the strict license agreements (e.x. junior licensees receiving water despite senior priority due to exceedingly low volume requirements). Using historical records as forecasts, and performance measures developed with the best available science through expert opinion, participants jointly developed a new reservoir operation strategy. Even with such a short timeframe, the BROM exercise showed that there was substantial room for improvement. Utilizing a "Water Bank" of purchased storage, downstream flows could be significantly improved without affecting quality. Additional benefits included fishery improvement, new recreation opportunities, dissolved oxygen improvement during critical periods, and the ability to accommodate long-term demand forecasts for surrounding municipalities. This strategy has been presented to, and favorably received by, the Alberta Minister of Environment for guidance during negotiations with the local

  8. ASN guide project. Safety policy and management in INBs (base nuclear installations)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    This guide presents the recommendations of the French Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) in the field of safety policy and management (PMS) for base nuclear installations (INBs). It gives an overview and comments of some prescriptions of the so-called INB order and PMS decision. These regulatory texts define a framework for provisions any INB operator must implement to establish his safety policy, to define and implement a system which allows the safety to be maintained, the improvement of his INB safety to be permanently looked for. The following issues are addressed: operator's safety policy, identification of elements important for safety, of activities pertaining to safety, and of associated requirements, safety management organization and system, management of activities pertaining to safety, documentation and archiving

  9. Farmer's decisions and landscape change : an actor-based approach for land-use research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valbuena, D.F.

    2010-01-01

    This dissertation has two objectives. The first objective is to link conceptually individual decisions and land-use/cover change (LUCC) patterns in rural regions. The second objective is to use these concepts to explore the influence of policy on LUCC as a response of farmers' decisions. To achieve

  10. Science-policy interface in transformative adaptive flood risk management - decision-making in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thaler, Thomas; Attems, Marie-Sophie; Rauter, Magdalena; Fuchs, Sven

    2016-04-01

    Facing the challenges of climate change, this paper aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this paper focussed on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. This paper used the Formative Scenario Analysis (FSA) as a method to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a system and its potential future development, based on qualitatively assessed impact factors and rated quantitative relations between these factors, such as impact and consistency analysis. The purpose of this approach was to develop scenarios, where participations develop their own strategies how to implement a transformative adaptation strategy in flood risk management. In particular, the interaction between researcher, the public and policy makers was analysed. Challenges and limitations were assessed, such as benefits on costs of adaptation measures, for the implementation of visions to

  11. Knowledge-based dialogue in Intelligent Decision Support Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollnagel, E.

    1987-01-01

    The overall goal for the design of Intelligent Decision Support Systems (IDSS) is to enhance understanding of the process under all operating conditions. For an IDSS to be effective, it must: select or generate the right information; produce reliable and consistent information; allow flexible and effective operator interaction; relate information presentation to current plant status and problems; and make the presentation at the right time. Several ongoing R and D programs try to design and build IDSSs. A particular example is the ESPRIT project Graphics and Knowledge Based Diaglogue for Dynamic Systems (GRADIENT). This project, the problems it addresses, and its uses, are discussed here

  12. Agent-based Decision Support System for the Third Generation Distributed Dynamic Decision-making (DDD-III) Simulator

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Meirina, Candra; Ruan, Sui; Yu, Feili; Zhu, Liang; Pattipati, Krishna R; Kleinman, David L

    2004-01-01

    ...) based on the third-generation distributed dynamic decision-making (DDD-III) simulator and contingency theory to increase the organizational cognitive capacity and to facilitate the processes of adaptation...

  13. How do researchers influence decision-makers? Case studies of Mexican policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trostle, J; Bronfman, M; Langer, A

    1999-06-01

    Though the problems translating or applying research in policy-making are legion, solutions are rare. As developing countries increase their capacities to develop effective local solutions to their health problems, they confront the research/policy dilemma. Yet few descriptive studies of research-policy links can be found from developing countries, and the relevance of European and North American models and data is questionable. We report the results of a descriptive study from Mexico of the relationship between health research and policy in four vertical programmes (AIDS, cholera, family planning, immunization). We interviewed 67 researchers and policy-makers from different institutions and levels of responsibility. We analyzed interviewee responses looking for factors that promoted or impeded exchanges between researchers and policy-makers. These were, in turn, divided into emphases on content, actors, process, and context. Many of the promoting factors resembled findings from studies in industrialized countries. Some important differences across the four programmes, which also distinguish them from industrialized country programmes, included extent of reliance on formal communication channels, role of the mass media in building social consensus or creating discord, levels of social consensus, role of foreign donors, and extent of support for biomedical versus social research. We recommend various ways to increase the impact of research on health policy-making in Mexico. Some of the largest challenges include the fact that researchers are but one of many interest groups, and research but one input among many equally legitimate elements to be considered by policy-makers. Another important challenge in Mexico is the relatively small role played by the public in policy-making. Further democratic changes in Mexico may be the most important incentive to increase the use of research in policy-making.

  14. Therapy Decision Support Based on Recommender System Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Gräßer

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a system for data-driven therapy decision support based on techniques from the field of recommender systems. Two methods for therapy recommendation, namely, Collaborative Recommender and Demographic-based Recommender, are proposed. Both algorithms aim to predict the individual response to different therapy options using diverse patient data and recommend the therapy which is assumed to provide the best outcome for a specific patient and time, that is, consultation. The proposed methods are evaluated using a clinical database incorporating patients suffering from the autoimmune skin disease psoriasis. The Collaborative Recommender proves to generate both better outcome predictions and recommendation quality. However, due to sparsity in the data, this approach cannot provide recommendations for the entire database. In contrast, the Demographic-based Recommender performs worse on average but covers more consultations. Consequently, both methods profit from a combination into an overall recommender system.

  15. Therapy Decision Support Based on Recommender System Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gräßer, Felix; Beckert, Stefanie; Küster, Denise; Schmitt, Jochen; Abraham, Susanne; Malberg, Hagen; Zaunseder, Sebastian

    2017-01-01

    We present a system for data-driven therapy decision support based on techniques from the field of recommender systems. Two methods for therapy recommendation, namely, Collaborative Recommender and Demographic-based Recommender , are proposed. Both algorithms aim to predict the individual response to different therapy options using diverse patient data and recommend the therapy which is assumed to provide the best outcome for a specific patient and time, that is, consultation. The proposed methods are evaluated using a clinical database incorporating patients suffering from the autoimmune skin disease psoriasis. The Collaborative Recommender proves to generate both better outcome predictions and recommendation quality. However, due to sparsity in the data, this approach cannot provide recommendations for the entire database. In contrast, the Demographic-based Recommender performs worse on average but covers more consultations. Consequently, both methods profit from a combination into an overall recommender system.

  16. Soft computing based on hierarchical evaluation approach and criteria interdependencies for energy decision-making problems: A case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gitinavard, Hossein; Mousavi, S. Meysam; Vahdani, Behnam

    2017-01-01

    In numerous real-world energy decision problems, decision makers often encounter complex environments, in which existent imprecise data and uncertain information lead us to make an appropriate decision. In this paper, a new soft computing group decision-making approach is introduced based on novel compromise ranking method and interval-valued hesitant fuzzy sets (IVHFSs) for energy decision-making problems under multiple criteria. In the proposed approach, the assessment information is provided by energy experts or decision makers based on interval-valued hesitant fuzzy elements under incomplete criteria weights. In this respect, a new ranking index is presented respecting to interval-valued hesitant fuzzy Hamming distance measure to prioritize energy candidates, and criteria weights are computed based on an extended maximizing deviation method by considering the preferences experts' judgments about the relative importance of each criterion. Also, a decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method is extended under an IVHF-environment to compute the interdependencies between and within the selected criteria in the hierarchical structure. Accordingly, to demonstrate the applicability of the presented approach a case study and a practical example are provided regarding to hierarchical structure and criteria interdependencies relations for renewable energy and energy policy selection problems. Hence, the obtained computational results are compared with a fuzzy decision-making method from the recent literature based on some comparison parameters to show the advantages and constraints of the proposed approach. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is prepared to indicate effects of different criteria weights on ranking results to present the robustness or sensitiveness of the proposed soft computing approach versus the relative importance of criteria. - Highlights: • Introducing a novel interval-valued hesitant fuzzy compromise ranking method.

  17. The Space Station decision - Politics, bureaucracy, and the making of public policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccurdy, Howard E.

    1991-01-01

    The lack of consensus that dominates the conception of major scientific and technological programs is demonstrated via a comparison of the decisions to build the Space Station and the Space Transportation System, and the decision to go to the moon. It is argued that the way political reality conditions administrative behavior in NASA is shown by the decision to promote international cooperation prior to program approval. It is concluded that so long as NASA remains a government agency, its officials will struggle to learn how to balance professional accountability with political reality.

  18. Decision Making Based On Management Information System and Decision Support System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şükrü Ada

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Information hasbecome an essentialresource for managing modern organizations. This is so because today’sbusiness environment is volatile, dynamic, turbulent and necessitates the burgeoning demand for accurate, relevant, complete,timely and economical information needed to drive the decision-making process in order to accentuate organizational abilities to manage opportunities and threat. MIS work on online mode with an average processing speed. Generally, it is used by low level management. Decision support system are powerful tool that assist corporate executives, administrators and other senior officials in making decision regarding the problem. Management Information Systems is a useful tool that provided organized and summarized information in a proper time to decision makers and enable making accurate decision for managers in organizations. This paper will discuss the concept, characteristics, types of MIS, the MIS model, and in particular it will highlight the impact and role of MIS on decision making.

  19. Router Agent Technology for Policy-Based Network Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Edward T.; Sudhir, Gurusham; Chang, Hsin-Ping; James, Mark; Liu, Yih-Chiao J.; Chiang, Winston

    2011-01-01

    This innovation can be run as a standalone network application on any computer in a networked environment. This design can be configured to control one or more routers (one instance per router), and can also be configured to listen to a policy server over the network to receive new policies based on the policy- based network management technology. The Router Agent Technology transforms the received policies into suitable Access Control List syntax for the routers it is configured to control. It commits the newly generated access control lists to the routers and provides feedback regarding any errors that were faced. The innovation also automatically generates a time-stamped log file regarding all updates to the router it is configured to control. This technology, once installed on a local network computer and started, is autonomous because it has the capability to keep listening to new policies from the policy server, transforming those policies to router-compliant access lists, and committing those access lists to a specified interface on the specified router on the network with any error feedback regarding commitment process. The stand-alone application is named RouterAgent and is currently realized as a fully functional (version 1) implementation for the Windows operating system and for CISCO routers.

  20. Artificial intelligence based decision support for trumpeter swan management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sojda, Richard S.

    2002-01-01

    The number of trumpeter swans (Cygnus buccinator) breeding in the Tri-State area where Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming come together has declined to just a few hundred pairs. However, these birds are part of the Rocky Mountain Population which additionally has over 3,500 birds breeding in Alberta, British Columbia, Northwest Territories, and Yukon Territory. To a large degree, these birds seem to have abandoned traditional migratory pathways in the flyway. Waterfowl managers have been interested in decision support tools that would help them explore simulated management scenarios in their quest towards reaching population recovery and the reestablishment of traditional migratory pathways. I have developed a decision support system to assist biologists with such management, especially related to wetland ecology. Decision support systems use a combination of models, analytical techniques, and information retrieval to help develop and evaluate appropriate alternatives. Swan management is a domain that is ecologically complex, and this complexity is compounded by spatial and temporal issues. As such, swan management is an inherently distributed problem. Therefore, the ecological context for modeling swan movements in response to management actions was built as a multiagent system of interacting intelligent agents that implements a queuing model representing swan migration. These agents accessed ecological knowledge about swans, their habitats, and flyway management principles from three independent expert systems. The agents were autonomous, had some sensory capability, and could respond to changing conditions. A key problem when developing ecological decision support systems is empirically determining that the recommendations provided are valid. Because Rocky Mountain trumpeter swans have been surveyed for a long period of time, I was able to compare simulated distributions provided by the system with actual field observations across 20 areas for the period 1988

  1. But What Do the Data Say? Lessons in Integrating Science and Policy to Inform International and Domestic Water Management Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voss, K.

    2015-12-01

    As scientists we are often encouraged to describe our research in terms of its "broader impacts" - to link our results to a tangible action or change outside of our scientific discipline. Although writing these goals in a proposal is simple, actually executing the proposed "broader impacts" is often more complicated. This presentation will briefly describe several international and domestic experiences that sought to utilize scientific research to inform pressing policy decisions related to water management. The lessons draw from ongoing efforts to improve transboundary groundwater collaboration in the Middle East, mitigate the impact of glacial lake outburst floods in high mountain regions, and prompt a political response to the California drought and groundwater depletion. As current initiatives at the science-policy interface, key challenges and ideas for improvement will be discussed, particularly: effective, concise communication of scientific data, awareness of broader political/economic contexts, and long-term trust building with decision-makers. Finally, this presentation will highlight several opportunities and suggestions to promote graduate students' involvement in these activities and to build skills at the science-policy interface.

  2. Research on the influence of parking charging strategy based on multi-level extension theory of group decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Fen; Hu, Wanxin

    2017-05-01

    Based on analysis of the impact of the experience of parking policy at home and abroad, design the impact analysis process of parking strategy. First, using group decision theory to create a parking strategy index system and calculate its weight. Index system includes government, parking operators and travelers. Then, use a multi-level extension theory to analyze the CBD parking strategy. Assess the parking strategy by calculating the correlation of each indicator. Finally, assess the strategy of parking charges through a case. Provide a scientific and reasonable basis for assessing parking strategy. The results showed that the model can effectively analyze multi-target, multi-property parking policy evaluation.

  3. Use of the innovation-decision process teaching strategy to promote evidence-based practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Nola A; Brown, Janet M

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe the innovation-decision process teaching strategy (I-DPTS) based on the model of diffusion of innovations [Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of innovations (5th ed.). New York: Free Press]. A goal of baccalaureate nursing education is to develop competencies required for evidence-based practice. Such practice merges clinician expertise, patient preferences, and critical evaluation of the literature to improve patient outcomes and reduce health care costs [Melnyk, B. M. (2005). A primer on evidence-based practice. Paper presented at the Purdue School of Nursing Seventh Annual Helen R. Johnson Leadership Conference, West Lafayette, IN]. Several strategies to promote evidence-based practice have appeared in the literature. However, when they are examined in light of the innovation-decision process (Rogers, 2003), they do not address all the essential steps for adoption to occur. The I-DPTS allows students to achieve competencies necessary to overcome barriers associated with implementing best practices. This strategy was successfully implemented in a senior-level introductory nursing research class. Community representatives identified practice issues that could be addressed by student groups. After conducting a search of the literature, students analyzed the evidence, determined best practice based on the evidence, and developed a policy for implementation in clinical settings. At course end, representatives were invited to attend oral and poster presentations. Use of the I-DPTS better prepares students to implement best practice as they embark on their professional careers.

  4. Age replacement policy based on imperfect repair with random probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, J.H.; Qu, Jian; Zuo, Ming J.

    2016-01-01

    In most of literatures of age replacement policy, failures before planned replacement age can be either minimally repaired or perfectly repaired based on the types of failures, cost for repairs and so on. In this paper, we propose age replacement policy based on imperfect repair with random probability. The proposed policy incorporates the case that such intermittent failure can be either minimally repaired or perfectly repaired with random probabilities. The mathematical formulas of the expected cost rate per unit time are derived for both the infinite-horizon case and the one-replacement-cycle case. For each case, we show that the optimal replacement age exists and is finite. - Highlights: • We propose a new age replacement policy with random probability of perfect repair. • We develop the expected cost per unit time. • We discuss the optimal age for replacement minimizing the expected cost rate.

  5. Worship Discourse and White Race-based Policy Attitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, R. Khari; Kaiser, Angela; Jackson, James S.

    2014-01-01

    The current study relies upon the 2004 National Politics Study to examine the association between exposure to race-based messages within places of worship and White race-based policy attitudes. The present study challenges the notion that, for White Americans, religiosity inevitably leads to racial prejudice. Rather, we argue, as others have, that religion exists on a continuum that spans from reinforcing to challenging the status quo of social inequality. Our findings suggests that the extent to which Whites discuss race along with the potential need for public policy solutions to address racial inequality within worship spaces, worship attendance contributes to support for public policies aimed at reducing racial inequality. On the other hand, apolitical and non-structural racial discussions within worship settings do seemingly little to move many Whites to challenge dominant idealistic perceptions of race that eschews public policy interventions as solutions to racial inequality. PMID:25324579

  6. Integrating Indigenous Traditional, Local and Scientific Knowledge for Improved Management, Policy and Decision-Making in Reindeer Husbandry in the Russian Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, Nancy G.; Yurchak, Boris; Turi, Johan Mathis; Mathiesen, Svein D.; Aissi-Wespi, Rita L.

    2004-01-01

    As scientists and policy-makers from both indigenous and non-indigenous communities begin to build closer partnerships to address common sustainability issues such as the health impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities, it becomes increasingly important to create shared information management systems which integrate all relevant factors for optimal information sharing and decision-making. This paper describes a new GIs-based system being designed to bring local and indigenous traditional knowledge together with scientific data and information, remote sensing, and information technologies to address health-related environment, weather, climate, pollution and land use change issues for improved decision/policy-making for reindeer husbandry. The system is building an easily-accessible archive of relevant current and historical, traditional, local and remotely-sensed and other data and observations for shared analysis, measuring, and monitoring parameters of interest. Protection of indigenous culturally sensitive information will be respected through appropriate data protocols. A mechanism which enables easy information sharing among all participants, which is real time and geo-referenced and which allows interconnectivity with remote sites is also being designed into the system for maximum communication among partners. A preliminary version of our system will be described for a Russian reindeer test site, which will include a combination of indigenous knowledge about local conditions and issues, remote sensing and ground-based data on such parameters as the vegetation state and distribution, snow cover, temperature, ice condition, and infrastructure.

  7. Neural Mechanisms of Post-error Adjustments of Decision Policy in Parietal Cortex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purcell, Braden A.; Kiani, Roozbeh

    2015-01-01

    SUMMARY Humans often slow down after mistakes (post-error slowing, PES), but the neural mechanism and adaptive role of PES remains controversial. We studied changes in the neural mechanisms of decision-making after errors in humans and monkeys that performed a motion-direction discrimination task. We found that PES is mediated by two factors: a reduction in sensitivity to sensory information and an increase in the decision bound. Both effects are implemented through dynamic changes in the decision-making process. Neuronal responses in the monkey lateral intraparietal area (LIP) revealed that bound changes are implemented by decreasing an evidence-independent urgency signal. They also revealed a reduction in the rate of evidence accumulation, reflecting reduced sensitivity. These changes in the bound and sensitivity provide a quantitative account of choices and response times. We suggest that PES reflects an adaptive increase of decision bound in anticipation of maladaptive reductions in sensitivity to incoming evidence. PMID:26804992

  8. The Decision to Allow Military Women into Combat Positions: A Study in Policy and Politics

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Culler, Kristen

    2000-01-01

    .... The Congressional decision to rescind such laws and, subsequently, the laws banning women from combat ships in the Navy was of great significance in the history of the United States military and the nation as a whole...

  9. An index-based robust decision making framework for watershed management in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yeonjoo; Chung, Eun-Sung

    2014-03-01

    This study developed an index-based robust decision making framework for watershed management dealing with water quantity and quality issues in a changing climate. It consists of two parts of management alternative development and analysis. The first part for alternative development consists of six steps: 1) to understand the watershed components and process using HSPF model, 2) to identify the spatial vulnerability ranking using two indices: potential streamflow depletion (PSD) and potential water quality deterioration (PWQD), 3) to quantify the residents' preferences on water management demands and calculate the watershed evaluation index which is the weighted combinations of PSD and PWQD, 4) to set the quantitative targets for water quantity and quality, 5) to develop a list of feasible alternatives and 6) to eliminate the unacceptable alternatives. The second part for alternative analysis has three steps: 7) to analyze all selected alternatives with a hydrologic simulation model considering various climate change scenarios, 8) to quantify the alternative evaluation index including social and hydrologic criteria with utilizing multi-criteria decision analysis methods and 9) to prioritize all options based on a minimax regret strategy for robust decision. This framework considers the uncertainty inherent in climate models and climate change scenarios with utilizing the minimax regret strategy, a decision making strategy under deep uncertainty and thus this procedure derives the robust prioritization based on the multiple utilities of alternatives from various scenarios. In this study, the proposed procedure was applied to the Korean urban watershed, which has suffered from streamflow depletion and water quality deterioration. Our application shows that the framework provides a useful watershed management tool for incorporating quantitative and qualitative information into the evaluation of various policies with regard to water resource planning and management

  10. Scientific literacy and environmental policy: The missing prerequisite for sound decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howell, D.J.

    1993-01-01

    Since World War II, two trends in public policy have been much in evidence: the increasing importance of science and technology and the increasing role of public participation. This book discusses the problem that an errant, even if well intentioned, public may demand government policies that fly in the face of scientific reality and that render useless results. The first four chapters provide a general background to the policy process and emphasize regulation in particular. Chapters five through eight discuss the main problems of scientific illiteracy and public participation, using two cases: FDA approval of drugs and government regulation of recombinant DNA research.

  11. DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS BASED ON QUALITATIVE METHODS FOR PROJECT MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олег Николаевич ГУЦА

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available State-of-the-art decision support systems (DSS used in project management are mainly based on quantitative methods. However, formal methods of modern mathematics alone are not capable of being a universal means of solving all practical problems in this area. Due to their limited capabilities and lack of statistical and other relevant information, economic-mathematical methods find limited application in management and marketing. In addition, there are few reliable validation and verification methods available. On the other hand, expert assessment methods are free of these disadvantages and are almost the only way to solve this type of problem. Advantages of this approach include simplicity of prediction in nearly every case and excellent performance in incomplete information scenarios. This work presents a new information technology which generates a DSS, based on qualitative methods of verbal decision analysis. The authors propose certain modifications to the method of ordinary classification. The proposed technology is implemented as a web application, which is used to design a system that evaluates the probability of a successful project.

  12. Probabilistic Decision Based Block Partitioning for Future Video Coding

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Zhao

    2017-11-29

    In the latest Joint Video Exploration Team development, the quadtree plus binary tree (QTBT) block partitioning structure has been proposed for future video coding. Compared to the traditional quadtree structure of High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC) standard, QTBT provides more flexible patterns for splitting the blocks, which results in dramatically increased combinations of block partitions and high computational complexity. In view of this, a confidence interval based early termination (CIET) scheme is proposed for QTBT to identify the unnecessary partition modes in the sense of rate-distortion (RD) optimization. In particular, a RD model is established to predict the RD cost of each partition pattern without the full encoding process. Subsequently, the mode decision problem is casted into a probabilistic framework to select the final partition based on the confidence interval decision strategy. Experimental results show that the proposed CIET algorithm can speed up QTBT block partitioning structure by reducing 54.7% encoding time with only 1.12% increase in terms of bit rate. Moreover, the proposed scheme performs consistently well for the high resolution sequences, of which the video coding efficiency is crucial in real applications.

  13. Shutdown Policies for MEMS-Based Storage Devices -- Analytical Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khatib, M.G.; Engelen, Johannes Bernardus Charles; Hartel, Pieter H.

    MEMS-based storage devices should be energy ecient for deployment in mobile systems. Since MEMS-based storage devices have a moving me- dia sled, they should be shut down during periods of inactivity. However, shutdown costs energy, limiting the applicability of aggressive shutdown decisions. The

  14. Policies for Promotion of Electric Vehicles and Factors Influencing Consumers’ Purchasing Decisions of Low Emission Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matjaz Knez

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Recently different studies of green transport have become interesting for policy makers,car manufacturers, customers and energy suppliers. Many stakeholders from the publicand private sectors are investing a lot of effort to identify consumer behaviour for futureimprovements in development of green products and effective strategies, which couldaccelerate the transition to sustainable future. This paper presents the effects of electricvehicle promotional policies and customer preferences about alternative fuel vehicles.This study has shown that the electric vehicle promotional policies adopted in Sloveniahave been unsuccessful, as the share of first-time registered electric vehicles in 2013 wasbelow 1%. For different segments of people whose opinions about low emission vehiclesdiffer, different measures must be adopted. When designing promotional policies focusmust be on the most relevant factors such as the total vehicle price and fuel economy.

  15. Stochastic Watershed Models for Risk Based Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Over half a century ago, the Harvard Water Program introduced the field of operational or synthetic hydrology providing stochastic streamflow models (SSMs), which could generate ensembles of synthetic streamflow traces useful for hydrologic risk management. The application of SSMs, based on streamflow observations alone, revolutionized water resources planning activities, yet has fallen out of favor due, in part, to their inability to account for the now nearly ubiquitous anthropogenic influences on streamflow. This commentary advances the modern equivalent of SSMs, termed `stochastic watershed models' (SWMs) useful as input to nearly all modern risk based water resource decision making approaches. SWMs are deterministic watershed models implemented using stochastic meteorological series, model parameters and model errors, to generate ensembles of streamflow traces that represent the variability in possible future streamflows. SWMs combine deterministic watershed models, which are ideally suited to accounting for anthropogenic influences, with recent developments in uncertainty analysis and principles of stochastic simulation

  16. Forest fire autonomous decision system based on fuzzy logic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Z.; Lu, Jianhua

    2010-11-01

    The proposed system integrates GPS / pseudolite / IMU and thermal camera in order to autonomously process the graphs by identification, extraction, tracking of forest fire or hot spots. The airborne detection platform, the graph-based algorithms and the signal processing frame are analyzed detailed; especially the rules of the decision function are expressed in terms of fuzzy logic, which is an appropriate method to express imprecise knowledge. The membership function and weights of the rules are fixed through a supervised learning process. The perception system in this paper is based on a network of sensorial stations and central stations. The sensorial stations collect data including infrared and visual images and meteorological information. The central stations exchange data to perform distributed analysis. The experiment results show that working procedure of detection system is reasonable and can accurately output the detection alarm and the computation of infrared oscillations.

  17. A Framework for Decision Support Systems Based on Zachman Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostadzadeh, S. Shervin; Habibi, Jafar; Ostadzadeh, S. Arash

    Recent challenges have brought about an inevitable tendency for enterprises to lunge towards organizing their information activities in a comprehensive way. In this respect, Enterprise Architecture (EA) has proven to be the leading option for development and maintenance of information systems. EA clearly provides a thorough outline of the whole information system comprising an enterprise. To establish such an outline, a logical framework needs to be laid upon the entire information system. Zachman framework (ZF) has been widely accepted as a standard scheme for identifying and organizing descriptive representations that have critical roles in enterprise management and system development. In this paper, we propose a framework based on ZF for Decision Support Systems (DSS). Furthermore, a modeling approach based on Model-Driven Architecture (MDA) is utilized to obtain compatible models for all cells in the framework. The efficiency of the proposed framework is examined through a case study.

  18. Jezebel at the welfare office: How racialized stereotypes of poor women's reproductive decisions and relationships shape policy implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masters, N Tatiana; Lindhorst, Taryn P; Meyers, Marcia K

    2014-01-01

    Current welfare scholarship lacks an analysis of how caseworkers discuss sexuality-related issues with clients. Seventy-two of 232 transcribed welfare interviews in three states included discussion of reproductive decisions and relationships. Overall, caseworkers' language reflected negative myths regarding African American women's sexuality and motherhood. By virtue of their status as welfare recipients, regardless of their individual races, clients were placed into racialized myths through workers' talk. This analysis demonstrates that though not present in every welfare interview and often veiled in bureaucratic language, negative ideas about poor women's sexuality persist in welfare policy and are deeply embedded in its day-to-day implementation.

  19. Optimization of decision rules based on dynamic programming approach

    KAUST Repository

    Zielosko, Beata

    2014-01-14

    This chapter is devoted to the study of an extension of dynamic programming approach which allows optimization of approximate decision rules relative to the length and coverage. We introduce an uncertainty measure that is the difference between number of rows in a given decision table and the number of rows labeled with the most common decision for this table divided by the number of rows in the decision table. We fix a threshold γ, such that 0 ≤ γ < 1, and study so-called γ-decision rules (approximate decision rules) that localize rows in subtables which uncertainty is at most γ. Presented algorithm constructs a directed acyclic graph Δ γ T which nodes are subtables of the decision table T given by pairs "attribute = value". The algorithm finishes the partitioning of a subtable when its uncertainty is at most γ. The chapter contains also results of experiments with decision tables from UCI Machine Learning Repository. © 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland.

  20. A RWMAC commentary on the Science Policy Research Unit report: UK nuclear decommissioning policy: time for decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-04-01

    Chapter 4 of the RWMAC's Twelfth Annual Report discussed nuclear power plant decommissioning strategy. One of the RWMAC's conclusions was that the concept of financial provisioning for power station decommissioning liabilities, which might be passed on to society several generations into the future, deserved further study. A specification for such a study was duly written (Annex 2) and, following consideration of tendered responses, the Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) at Sussex University, was contracted to carry out the work. The SPRU report stands as a SPRU analysis of the subject. This separate short RWMAC report, which is being released at the same time as the SPRU report, presents the RWMAC's own commentary on the SPRU study. The RWMAC has identified five main issues which should be addressed when deciding on a nuclear plant decommissioning strategy. These are: the technical approach to decommissioning, the basis of financial provisions, treatment of risk, segregation of management of funds, and the need for a wider environmental view. These issues are addressed in this RWMAC report. (author)

  1. A RWMAC commentary on the Science Policy Research Unit Report: UK Nuclear Decommissioning Policy: time for decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-04-01

    The Radioactive Waste Management Advisory Committee (RWMAC) is an independent body which advises the Secretaries of State for the Environment, Scotland and Wales, on civil radioactive waste management issues. Chapter 4 of the RWMAC's Twelfth Annual Report discussed nuclear power plant decommissioning strategy. One of the RWMAC's conclusions was that the concept of financial provisioning for power station decommissioning liabilities, which might be passed on to society several generations into the future, deserved further study. A specification for such a study was duly written (Annex 2) and, following consideration of tendered responses, the Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) at Sussex University, was contracted to carry out the work. The SPRU report stands as a SPRU analysis of the subject. This separate short RWMAC report, which is being released at the same time as the SPRU report, presents the RWMAC's own commentary on the SPRU study. The RWMAC has identified five main issues which should be addressed when deciding on a nuclear plant decommissioning strategy. These are: the technical approach to decommissioning, the basis of financial provisions, treatment of risk, segregation of management of funds, and the need for a wider environmental view. (author)

  2. Risk-Sensitive Multiagent Decision-Theoretic Planning Based on MDP and One-Switch Utility Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zeng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In high stakes situations decision-makers are often risk-averse and decision-making processes often take place in group settings. This paper studies multiagent decision-theoretic planning under Markov decision processes (MDPs framework with considering the change of agent’s risk attitude as his wealth level varies. Based on one-switch utility function that describes agent’s risk attitude change with his wealth level, we give the additive and multiplicative aggregation models of group utility and adopt maximizing expected group utility as planning objective. When the wealth level approaches infinity, the characteristics of optimal policy are analyzed for the additive and multiplicative aggregation model, respectively. Then a backward-induction method is proposed to divide the wealth level interval from negative infinity to initial wealth level into subintervals and determine the optimal policy in states and subintervals. The proposed method is illustrated by numerical examples and the influences of agent’s risk aversion parameters and weights on group decision-making are also analyzed.

  3. Inter-generational Decision Making for Radioactive Waste Disposal, Policy and Science: Regulatory Protection Forever?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Regnier, E.P.; Wallo, A.

    2006-01-01

    Assumptions about this generation's duty to future generations underlie decisions on regulatory requirements for disposal of radioactive waste. Regulatory provisions related to time of compliance, dose criteria, and institutional controls, for example, continue to be topics of discussion as regulations are revised or compared. Subjective and difficult ethical issues are either explicit or implicit in these discussions. The information and criteria used must be relevant and help make good decisions that, ideally, increase the overall welfare of future generations. To what extent can or should science usefully inform such decision-making? Both the National Academies of Science and the National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) have reported on this topic, albeit from different viewpoints. This paper explains and expands upon the rationale used for setting compliance time periods such as the Department of Energy's requirement for a 1,000 year time of compliance with dose limits for low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities. It evaluates radioactive waste disposal against principles of equity recommended by NAPA. Radioactive waste disposal standards require evaluation of impacts much farther into the future than has been common for other endeavors with very long term effects. While performance assessment analyses provide much useful information, their inherent uncertainties over long time periods preclude the projection of reality. Thus, the usefulness of extremely long projections in supporting good decisions that promote the welfare of future generations is limited. Such decisions are fundamentally a question of resource allocation, equity, and fairness. (authors)

  4. Market-Based Policies for Pollution Control in Latin America

    OpenAIRE

    Sarah West; Ann Wolverton

    2003-01-01

    Rapid urbanization and increased industrialization have led to high pollution levels throughout Latin America. Economists tout policies based on market-based economic incentives as the most cost-effective methods for addressing a wide variety of environmental problems. This chapter examines market-based incentives and their applicability to Latin America. We first review the market-based incentives traditionally used to address pollution – emissions taxes, environmental subsidies, tax and sub...

  5. Venture Capital Investment Selection Decision-making Base on Fuzzy Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xubo

    Venture capital investment decision-making is the most important issue in venture capital investment selection. There are higher uncertainty and complexity in venture capital investment decision-making process. This paper analysis these uncertain risk in venture capital investment decision-making base the previous studies. Attributed the venture capital candidate firms' select to fuzzy optimal decision-making. Build a risk-weight fuzzy optimal return model to avoid the decision-making risk. Get the optimal solution set.

  6. Enabling Participatory Decision Making Through Web-Based GIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheng, Grant; Yam, Kevin; Hassas, Aranak

    2001-01-01

    obligations to fellow human beings, animals, and the environment. People perceive that information travels essentially one way in the processes and the voices of the community and its members are not heard. Subsequently, they feel excluded from the actual decision making process and even from being able to participate meaningfully in the process. Recent advances in informatics and geomatics technology, such as the Internet, web-based software and geographic information systems (GIS), have made it possible to address these issues more effectively. We believe that the combined features of two software developed at the York Centre for Applied Sustainability can facilitate access to information, provide a virtual forum for discussion and debate, and it possible for individuals to participate in decision making process, and to infer peoples' values from their choice criteria selection

  7. ENERGY AWARE NETWORK: BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS BASED DECISION MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santosh Kumar Chaudhari

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A Network Management System (NMS plays a very important role in managing an ever-evolving telecommunication network. Generally an NMS monitors & maintains the health of network elements. The growing size of the network warrants extra functionalities from the NMS. An NMS provides all kinds of information about networks which can be used for other purposes apart from monitoring & maintaining networks like improving QoS & saving energy in the network. In this paper, we add another dimension to NMS services, namely, making an NMS energy aware. We propose a Decision Management System (DMS framework which uses a machine learning technique called Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN, to make the NMS energy aware. The DMS is capable of analysing and making control decisions based on network traffic. We factor in the cost of rerouting and power saving per port. Simulations are performed on standard network topologies, namely, ARPANet and IndiaNet. It is found that ~2.5-6.5% power can be saved.

  8. Integrated environmental decision support tool based on GIS technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doctor, P.G.; O'Neil, T.K.; Sackschewsky, M.R.; Becker, J.M.; Rykiel, E.J.; Walters, T.B.; Brandt, C.A.; Hall, J.A.

    1995-01-01

    Environmental restoration and management decisions facing the US Department of Energy require balancing trade-offs between diverse land uses and impacts over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Many types of environmental data have been collected for the Hanford Site and the Columbia River in Washington State over the past fifty years. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is integrating these data into a Geographic Information System (GIS) based computer decision support tool. This tool provides a comprehensive and concise description of the current environmental landscape that can be used to evaluate the ecological and monetary trade-offs between future land use, restoration and remediation options before action is taken. Ecological impacts evaluated include effects to individual species of concern and habitat loss and fragmentation. Monetary impacts include those associated with habitat mitigation. The tool is organized as both a browsing tool for educational purposes, and as a framework that leads a project manager through the steps needed to be in compliance with environmental requirements

  9. Ethical Frameworks in Public Health Decision-Making: Defending a Value-Based and Pluralist Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grill, Kalle; Dawson, Angus

    2017-12-01

    A number of ethical frameworks have been proposed to support decision-making in public health and the evaluation of public health policy and practice. This is encouraging, since ethical considerations are of paramount importance in health policy. However, these frameworks have various deficiencies, in part because they incorporate substantial ethical positions. In this article, we discuss and criticise a framework developed by James Childress and Ruth Bernheim, which we consider to be the state of the art in the field. Their framework distinguishes aims, such as the promotion of public health, from constraints on the pursuit of those aims, such as the requirement to avoid limitations to liberty, or the requirement to be impartial. We show how this structure creates both theoretical and practical problems. We then go on to present and defend a more practical framework, one that is neutral in avoiding precommitment to particular values and how they ought to be weighted. We believe ethics is at the very heart of such weightings and our framework is developed to reflect this belief. It is therefore both pluralist and value-based. We compare our new framework to Childress and Bernheim's and outline its advantages. It is justified by its impetus to consider a wide range of alternatives and its tendency to direct decisions towards the best alternatives, as well as by the information provided by the ranking of alternatives and transparent explication of the judgements that motivate this ranking. The new framework presented should be useful to decision-makers in public health, as well as being a means to stimulate further reflection on the role of ethics in public health.

  10. Theoretical bases of modeling decision-marketing solutions

    OpenAIRE

    Grigoruk Pavel Mikhaylovych

    2012-01-01

    The paper deals with issues related with theoretical aspects of modelling of marketing decision making process. According to system approach marketing decision making process is seen as a set of related subprocesses. Provided an opportunity to use the economic and mathematical modelling at each stage of the decision making process.

  11. School Improvement Policy--Site-Based Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Kenneth Tanner

    1998-03-01

    Full Text Available Have administrative functions of principals changed in schools practicing site-based management (SBM with shared governance? To deal with this issue we employed the Delphi technique and a panel of 24 experts from 14 states. The experts, which included educational specialists, researchers, writers, and elementary school principals, agreed that the implementation of SBM dramatically influences the roles of the principal in management/administration and leadership. Data revealed that the elementary principal's leadership role requires specialized skills to support shared governance, making it necessary to form professional development programs that adapt to innovations evolving from the implementation of SBM.

  12. Management of Internal and External Factors of Decisive Policies in Agriculture in Macroeconomic Crisis Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanghele Cristian

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The management of internal and external factors directly influencing the decisions implemented by the managerial act at the macroeconomic analysis of the relations within this branch and sub-branches, of the disturbing factors with the implementation of some decisions to stop the phenomena of soil degradation and agricultural land and to preserve and develop their productive potential, a production surplus for ash consumption and ensuring a productive production for industrial consumption with the result of gaining added value and net profit as much as possible for the exploitation farms.

  13. Feature extraction for deep neural networks based on decision boundaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Seongyoun; Lee, Chulhee

    2017-05-01

    Feature extraction is a process used to reduce data dimensions using various transforms while preserving the discriminant characteristics of the original data. Feature extraction has been an important issue in pattern recognition since it can reduce the computational complexity and provide a simplified classifier. In particular, linear feature extraction has been widely used. This method applies a linear transform to the original data to reduce the data dimensions. The decision boundary feature extraction method (DBFE) retains only informative directions for discriminating among the classes. DBFE has been applied to various parametric and non-parametric classifiers, which include the Gaussian maximum likelihood classifier (GML), the k-nearest neighbor classifier, support vector machines (SVM) and neural networks. In this paper, we apply DBFE to deep neural networks. This algorithm is based on the nonparametric version of DBFE, which was developed for neural networks. Experimental results with the UCI database show improved classification accuracy with reduced dimensionality.

  14. Decision Manifold Approximation for Physics-Based Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Jay Ming; Samareh, Jamshid A.

    2016-01-01

    With the recent surge of success in big-data driven deep learning problems, many of these frameworks focus on the notion of architecture design and utilizing massive databases. However, in some scenarios massive sets of data may be difficult, and in some cases infeasible, to acquire. In this paper we discuss a trajectory-based framework that quickly learns the underlying decision manifold of binary simulation classifications while judiciously selecting exploratory target states to minimize the number of required simulations. Furthermore, we draw particular attention to the simulation prediction application idealized to the case where failures in simulations can be predicted and avoided, providing machine intelligence to novice analysts. We demonstrate this framework in various forms of simulations and discuss its efficacy.

  15. A life-cycle approach to technology, infrastructure, and climate policy decision making: Transitioning to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and low-carbon electricity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaras, Constantine

    In order to mitigate the most severe effects of climate change, large global reductions in the current levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are required in this century to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations at less than double pre-industrial levels. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report states that GHG emissions should be reduced to 50-80% of 2000 levels by 2050 to increase the likelihood of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. In order to achieve the large GHG reductions by 2050 recommended by the IPCC, a fundamental shift and evolution will be required in the energy system. Because the electric power and transportation sectors represent the largest GHG emissions sources in the United States, a unique opportunity for coupling these systems via electrified transportation could achieve synergistic environmental (GHG emissions reductions) and energy security (petroleum displacement) benefits. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which use electricity from the grid to power a portion of travel, could play a major role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector. However, this thesis finds that life cycle GHG emissions from PHEVs depend on the electricity source that is used to charge the battery, so meaningful GHG emissions reductions with PHEVs are conditional on low-carbon electricity sources. Power plants and their associated GHGs are long-lived, and this work argues that decisions made regarding new electricity supplies within the next ten years will affect the potential of PHEVs to play a role in a low-carbon future in the coming decades. This thesis investigates the life cycle engineering, economic, and policy decisions involved in transitioning to PHEVs and low-carbon electricity. The government has a vast array of policy options to promote low-carbon technologies, some of which have proven to be more successful than others. This thesis uses life

  16. A generic tool for development of decision aids based on clinical practice guidelines.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Raats, C.J.; Veenendaal, H van; Versluijs, M.M.; Burgers, J.S.

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Patient involvement in medical decision making has been suggested to contribute to patients' satisfaction and better patient outcomes. Decision aids are particularly useful for preference-sensitive decisions. Ideally, these should be based on up-to-date evidence-based guidelines. The

  17. Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robyn S. Wilson; Patricia L. Winter; Lynn A. Maguire; Timothy. Ascher

    2011-01-01

    Managing wildfire events to achieve multiple management objectives involves a high degree of decision complexity and uncertainty, increasing the likelihood that decisions will be informed by experience-based heuristics triggered by available cues at the time of the decision. The research reported here tests the prevalence of three risk-based biases among 206...

  18. [A tooth or an implant--literature based decision making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bar On, H; Sharon, E; Lipovezky-Adler, M; Haramaty, O; Smidt, A

    2014-07-01

    The common use of dental implants in the daily practice led to a profound change in the available treatment strategies. The option of replacing a diagnosed doubtful tooth with an implant has become widely accepted and often used. The prognosis systems in use today are based on the three major disciplines: endodontics, periodontics and prosthodontics. Combining these three may impair and bias the decision making process and increase the tendency to base it on subjective clinical experience and personal preference. Reading and reviewing the relevant literature gives no clear tool for use. Root canal treatment is considered a highly predictable treatment procedure and a treated tooth is affected mainly by the quality and type of the fabricated restoration and the risk of caries. Periodontal treatment followed by a suitable maintenance regimen will likely allow long term tooth survival. When comparing the success rates of natural teeth rehabilitation versus implant supported restorations, it appears that with implants an additional treatment is demanded along the years. This coincides with the fact that to date there is no consensus regarding the extent of perimplantitis and perimucositis that is to be expected around a restored implant. In addition, a peri implant tissue problem or a failure of a dental implant may prove to be more challenging than a failure of a tooth. It is important to remember that a dental implant is made to substitute a missing tooth and it is a treatment modality with known and clear indications for rehabilitation of an edentulous space. The aim of this paper is to review and discuss the various aspects of whether to maintain a compromised or a doubtful tooth or to prefer a treatment modality using dental implants. In conclusion it is advised here, to incorporate the discussed issues in the decision making process towards the most suitable treatment plan.

  19. The Impact of Institutional Culture, Policy and Process on Student Engagement in University Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Philip

    2018-01-01

    There is a strong focus on the importance of student engagement in higher education, with increasing attention on how students can participate in their university's decision-making processes. Yet, although the concept appears to be almost universally accepted, it is rarely problematised. This has led some commentators to conclude that student…

  20. European antitrust policy 1957-2004: An analysis of Commission decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carree, M.; Günster, A.; Schinkel, M.P.

    2008-01-01

    This paper provides a survey of European antitrust law enforcement since its foundation in the Treaty of Rome of 1957. We present a complete overview and statistical analysis of all 538 formal Commission decisions adopted up to 2004 under Articles 81, 82 and 86 of the European Community Treaty. We

  1. Principals' Decision Making in Discipline Policy Implementation: The Lutheran Schools' Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandon, Katherine J.

    2013-01-01

    This quantitative study examines the relationship of philosophical beliefs of administrators of Lutheran schools and the influence of those beliefs on discipline decision-making styles, job satisfaction, and other factors. The study patterns the survey work from William Perry (1999) and other theorists regarding philosophy and ethics. A…

  2. Prior Degree and Student Assessment Performance: How Can Evidence Guide Decisions on Assessment Policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Pippa; Gordon, Jill; Clarke, Rufus; Oldmeadow, Wendy

    2009-01-01

    This study aimed to provide evidence to guide decisions on the type and timing of assessments in a graduate medical programme, by identifying whether students from particular degree backgrounds face greater difficulty in satisfying the current assessment requirements. We examined the performance rank of students in three types of assessments and…

  3. An Intelligent Fleet Condition-Based Maintenance Decision Making Method Based on Multi-Agent

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Sun

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the demand for condition-based maintenance online decision making among a mission oriented fleet, an intelligent maintenance decision making method based on Multi-agent and heuristic rules is proposed. The process of condition-based maintenance within an aircraft fleet (each containing one or more Line Replaceable Modules based on multiple maintenance thresholds is analyzed. Then the process is abstracted into a Multi-Agent Model, a 2-layer model structure containing host negotiation and independent negotiation is established, and the heuristic rules applied to global and local maintenance decision making is proposed. Based on Contract Net Protocol and the heuristic rules, the maintenance decision making algorithm is put forward. Finally, a fleet consisting of 10 aircrafts on a 3-wave continuous mission is illustrated to verify this method. Simulation results indicate that this method can improve the availability of the fleet, meet mission demands, rationalize the utilization of support resources and provide support for online maintenance decision making among a mission oriented fleet.

  4. Intranet-Based Decision Support for the Marine Air Ground Task Force Aviation Combat Element

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    LeMay, Malcolm

    1998-01-01

    ...) of the Marine Air Ground Task Force (MAGTF). Through the use of Intranet-based decision support, internet technology can be leveraged to improve the decision support and information processes of the ACE...

  5. Informing decision making in agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation policy: A Best–Worst Scaling survey of expert and farmer opinion in the sheep industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, A.K.; Jones, D.L.; Edwards-Jones, G.; Cross, P.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Effectiveness and practicality of greenhouse gas mitigation measures are assessed. ► Best–Worst Scaling surveys are used to elicit expert and sheep farmer opinion. ► Effective and practical measures are priority candidates for policy inclusion. ► Support mechanisms may be needed to deliver effective, low practicality measures. ► Variation in farmers’ perceptions of practicality holds implications for policy delivery. -- Abstract: Policy decision making for agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation is hindered by scientific uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of mitigation measures. Successful on-farm adoption of measures is contingent upon farmer perception of the relative practicality of implementing the measure and associated incentives and advice. In the absence of a comprehensive evidence base we utilised Best–Worst Scaling, a discrete choice survey method, to elicit expert and farmer opinion on the relative effectiveness and practicality of mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from sheep production systems. The method enabled individual mitigation measures to be ranked on a ratio scale of effectiveness (expert opinion) and practicality (farmer opinion). Six measures were identified as possessing the combined qualities of effectiveness and practicality and are considered priority candidates for policy promotion. The overall preferred measure was the use of legumes in pasture reseed mixes. Estimation and analysis of the distribution of individual respondent scores revealed heterogeneity in farmers’ perceptions of practicality, suggesting that flexible policies are required to enable farmers to select mitigation measures most suited to their farm type and locality. Practical measures with below average effectiveness may be widely adopted with limited regulation, incentivisation or advice, whilst some highly effective measures with lower practicality are likely to present greater obstacles to adoption

  6. Discourses, Decisions, Designs: "Special" Education Policy-Making in New South Wales, Scotland, Finland and Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chong, Pei Wen; Graham, Linda J.

    2017-01-01

    This comparative analysis investigates the influence of neo-liberal and inclusive discourses in "special" education policy-making in New South Wales, Scotland, Finland and Malaysia. The centrality of competition, selectivity and accountability in the discourses used in New South Wales and Malaysia suggests a system preference for…

  7. Do political variables affect fiscal policy adjustment decisions? New empirical evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mierau, Jochen O.; Jong-A-Pin, Richard; de Haan, Jakob

    2007-01-01

    We test eight hypotheses on political factors influencing the likelihood that a fiscal policy adjustment occurs. We employ a panel discrete choice model for 20 OECD countries for the period 1970-2003. Two different definitions of fiscal adjustments are used to capture the differences between rapid

  8. Why do we need to integrate farmer decision making and wildlife models for policy evaluation?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malawska, Anna Katarzyna; Topping, Christopher John; Nielsen, Helle Ørsted

    2014-01-01

    and technical limitations, traditional agricultural economic and ecological models fall short in terms of predictions of impacts of agri-environmental measures. The feedback situation between policy, human behaviour and ecological systems behaviour can confound these approaches, which do not take systems...

  9. Designing a climate change policy for the international maritime transport sector: Market-based measures and technological options for global and regional policy actions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miola, A.; Marra, M.; Ciuffo, B.

    2011-01-01

    The international maritime transport sector has a significant abatement potential and some technical improvements that reduce GHG emissions would already be profitable without any policy in place. This paper analyses in-depth the limits and opportunities of policy options currently under consideration at the international level to stimulate the sector to reduce its GHG emissions. In particular, in order for the maritime transport sector to become more environmentally friendly, the flexible nature of international market-based measures and the European Union Emission Trading Scheme provide a definite window of opportunity without placing unnecessary high burden on the sector. However, the development of a regional policy, such as at European level, for the international maritime transport sector faces several obstacles: allocation of emissions, carbon leakage, permit allocation, treatment of the great variety in ship type, size and usage, and transaction cost. Global market-based policies could overcome most of these challenges. This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the policy instruments currently under discussion to reduce the sector's burden on the environment, and focuses on economic theory, legal principles, technological options, and the political framework that together make up the basis of decision-making regarding the international maritime transport sector's climate change policies. - Highlights: → Technologies for a more environmental friendly maritime transport sector and their cost-effectiveness. → How to combine ambitious CO 2 reduction goals with a sector-wide market-based policy. → Permits should be auctioned frequently and small emitters have to be excluded. → Inclusion of shipping in the EU ETS causes carbon leakage, so the policy should aim at expansion.

  10. The challenges of changing national malaria drug policy to artemisinin-based combinations in Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otieno Dorothy N

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Backgound Sulphadoxine/sulphalene-pyrimethamine (SP was adopted in Kenya as first line therapeutic for uncomplicated malaria in 1998. By the second half of 2003, there was convincing evidence that SP was failing and had to be replaced. Despite several descriptive investigations of policy change and implementation when countries moved from chloroquine to SP, the different constraints of moving to artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT in Africa are less well documented. Methods A narrative description of the process of anti-malarial drug policy change, financing and implementation in Kenya is assembled from discussions with stakeholders, reports, newspaper articles, minutes of meetings and email correspondence between actors in the policy change process. The narrative has been structured to capture the timing of events, the difficulties and hurdles faced and the resolutions reached to the final implementation of a new treatment policy. Results Following a recognition that SP was failing there was a rapid technical appraisal of available data and replacement options resulting in a decision to adopt artemether-lumefantrine (AL as the recommended first-line therapy in Kenya, announced in April 2004. Funding requirements were approved by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM and over 60 million US$ were agreed in principle in July 2004 to procure AL and implement the policy change. AL arrived in Kenya in May 2006, distribution to health facilities began in July 2006 coincidental with cascade in-service training in the revised national guidelines. Both training and drug distribution were almost complete by the end of 2006. The article examines why it took over 32 months from announcing a drug policy change to completing early implementation. Reasons included: lack of clarity on sustainable financing of an expensive therapeutic for a common disease, a delay in release of funding, a lack of comparative efficacy data

  11. Perspectives of policy and political decision makers on access to formal dementia care: expert interviews in eight European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broda, Anja; Bieber, Anja; Meyer, Gabriele; Hopper, Louise; Joyce, Rachael; Irving, Kate; Zanetti, Orazio; Portolani, Elisa; Kerpershoek, Liselot; Verhey, Frans; Vugt, Marjolein de; Wolfs, Claire; Eriksen, Siren; Røsvik, Janne; Marques, Maria J; Gonçalves-Pereira, Manuel; Sjölund, Britt-Marie; Woods, Bob; Jelley, Hannah; Orrell, Martin; Stephan, Astrid

    2017-08-03

    As part of the ActifCare (ACcess to Timely Formal Care) project, we conducted expert interviews in eight European countries with policy and political decision makers, or representatives of relevant institutions, to determine their perspectives on access to formal care for people with dementia and their carers. Each ActifCare country (Germany, Ireland, Italy, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, United Kingdom) conducted semi-structured interviews with 4-7 experts (total N = 38). The interview guide addressed the topics "Complexity and Continuity of Care", "Formal Services", and "Public Awareness". Country-specific analysis of interview transcripts used an inductive qualitative content analysis. Cross-national synthesis focused on similarities in themes across the ActifCare countries. The analysis revealed ten common themes and two additional sub-themes across countries. Among others, the experts highlighted the need for a coordinating role and the necessity of information to address issues of complexity and continuity of care, demanded person-centred, tailored, and multidisciplinary formal services, and referred to education, mass media and campaigns as means to raise public awareness. Policy and political decision makers appear well acquainted with current discussions among both researchers and practitioners of possible approaches to improve access to dementia care. Experts described pragmatic, realistic strategies to influence dementia care. Suggested innovations concerned how to achieve improved dementia care, rather than transforming the nature of the services provided. Knowledge gained in these expert interviews may be useful to national decision makers when they consider reshaping the organisation of dementia care, and may thus help to develop best-practice strategies and recommendations.

  12. A First-Order Policy Language for History-Based Transaction Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Andreas; Goré, Rajeev; Tiu, Alwen

    Online trading invariably involves dealings between strangers, so it is important for one party to be able to judge objectively the trustworthiness of the other. In such a setting, the decision to trust a user may sensibly be based on that user’s past behaviour. We introduce a specification language based on linear temporal logic for expressing a policy for categorising the behaviour patterns of a user depending on its transaction history. We also present an algorithm for checking whether the transaction history obeys the stated policy. To be useful in a real setting, such a language should allow one to express realistic policies which may involve parameter quantification and quantitative or statistical patterns. We introduce several extensions of linear temporal logic to cater for such needs: a restricted form of universal and existential quantification; arbitrary computable functions and relations in the term language; and a “counting” quantifier for counting how many times a formula holds in the past. We then show that model checking a transaction history against a policy, which we call the history-based transaction monitoring problem, is PSPACE-complete in the size of the policy formula and the length of the history, assuming that the underlying interpreted functions and relations are polynomially computable. The problem becomes decidable in polynomial time when the policies are fixed. We also consider the problem of transaction monitoring in the case where not all the parameters of actions are observable. We formulate two such “partial observability” monitoring problems, and show their decidability under certain restrictions.

  13. The role of stakeholders in Murray-Darling Basin water management: How do irrigators make water use decisions and how can this influence water policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, E. M.; Wheeler, S. A.; Smith, D. J.; Gray, S.; Overton, I. C.; Crossman, N. D.; Doody, T.

    2014-12-01

    Water stress and overallocation are at the forefront of water management and policy challenges in Australia, especially in the Murray Darling Basin (MDB). Farmland within the MDB generates 40 percent of Australia's total agricultural production and utilizes 60 percent of all irrigation water withdrawn nationally. The Murray Darling Basin Plan, drafted in 2008 and enacted in November 2012, has at its core the establishment of environmentally sustainable diversion limits based on a threshold of water extraction which, if exceeded, would cause harm to key environmental assets in the MDB. The overall goal of the Plan is to balance economic, social and environmental outcomes within the Basin. Because irrigated agriculture is the major water user in the MDB, it is important to understand the factors that influence irrigation water use. We applied a mental modeling approach to assessing farmer water use decisions. The approach allowed us to solicit and document farmer insights into the multifaceted nature of irrigation water use decisions in the MDB. Following are a few insights gained from the workshops: 1) For both environmental and economic reasons, irrigators in the MDB have become experts in water use and water efficiency. Water managers and government officials could benefit by partnering with farmers and incorporating this expertise into water management decisions. 2) Irrigators in the MDB may have been misperceived when it comes to accepting policy change. Many, if not most, of the farmers we talked to understood the need for, or at least the inevitability of, governmental policies and regulations. But a lack of accountability and predictability has added to the uncertainty in farming decisions. 3) Irrigators in the MDB subscribe to the concept of environmental sustainability, although they might not always agree with how the concept is implemented. Farmers should be recognized for their significant investments in the long-term sustainability of their farms and

  14. Development of a GIS-Based Decision Support System for Diagnosis of River System Health and Restoration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jihong Xia

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The development of a decision support system (DSS to inform policy making has been progressing rapidly. This paper presents a generic framework and the development steps of a decision tool prototype of geographic information systems (GIS-based decision support system of river health diagnosis (RHD-DSS. This system integrates data, calculation models, and human knowledge of river health status assessment, causal factors diagnosis, and restoration decision making to assist decision makers during river restoration and management in Zhejiang Province, China. Our RHD-DSS is composed of four main elements: the graphical user interface (GUI, the database, the model base, and the knowledge base. It has five functional components: the input module, the database management, the diagnostic indicators management, the assessment and diagnosis, and the visual result module. The system design is illustrated with particular emphasis on the development of the database, model schemas, diagnosis and analytical processing techniques, and map management design. Finally, the application of the prototype RHD-DSS is presented and implemented for Xinjiangtang River of Haining County in Zhejiang Province, China. This case study is used to demonstrate the advantages gained by the application of this system. We conclude that there is great potential for using the RHD-DSS to systematically manage river basins in order to effectively mitigate environmental issues. The proposed approach will provide river managers and designers with improved insight into river degradation conditions, thereby strengthening the assessment process and the administration of human activities in river management.

  15. Improving transportation networks: Effects of population structure and decision making policies

    OpenAIRE

    Pablo-Mart?, Federico; S?nchez, Angel

    2017-01-01

    Transportation networks are one of the fundamental tools for human society to work, more so in our globalized world. The importance of a correct, efficient design of a transportation network for a given region or country cannot be overstated. We here study how network design is affected by the geography of the towns or nuclei to be connected, and also by the decision process necessary to choose which connections should be improved (in a generic sense) first. We begin by establishing that Dela...

  16. CLIPS based decision support system for water distribution networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Sandeep

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The difficulty in knowledge representation of a water distribution network (WDN problem has contributed to the limited use of artificial intelligence (AI based expert systems (ES in the management of these networks. This paper presents a design of a Decision Support System (DSS that facilitates "on-demand'' knowledge generation by utilizing results of simulation runs of a suitably calibrated and validated hydraulic model of an existing aged WDN corresponding to emergent or even hypothetical but likely scenarios. The DSS augments the capability of a conventional expert system by integrating together the hydraulic modelling features with heuristics based knowledge of experts under a common, rules based, expert shell named CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System. In contrast to previous ES, the knowledge base of the DSS has been designed to be dynamic by superimposing CLIPS on Structured Query Language (SQL. The proposed ES has an inbuilt calibration module that enables calibration of an existing (aged WDN for the unknown, and unobservable, Hazen-Williams C-values. In addition, the daily run and simulation modules of the proposed ES further enable the CLIPS inference engine to evaluate the network performance for any emergent or suggested test scenarios. An additional feature of the proposed design is that the DSS integrates computational platforms such as MATLAB, open source Geographical Information System (GIS, and a relational database management system (RDBMS working under the umbrella of the Microsoft Visual Studio based common user interface. The paper also discusses implementation of the proposed framework on a case study and clearly demonstrates the utility of the application as an able aide for effective management of the study network.

  17. Paper Fish and Policy Conflict: Catch Shares and Ecosystem-Based Management in Maine's Groundfishery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer F. Brewer

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration professes support for ecosystem-based fisheries management, as mandated by Congress in the Fishery Conservation and Management Act, and as endorsed by the Obama Administration's national ocean policy. Nonetheless, driving agency policies, including catch shares and fishing quotas, focus principally on individual species, diverting attention from ecosystem considerations such as habitat, migratory patterns, trophic relationships, fishing gear, and firm-level decision making. Environmental non-governmental organization (ENGO agendas manifest similar inconsistencies. A case study of Maine's groundfishery demonstrates implications of this policy conflict at the local level. There, multigenerational fishing villages have historically pursued diversified and adaptive livelihood strategies, supported by local ecological knowledge. This tradition is increasingly eroded by regulatory constraints, including catch shares. Field observation, interviews, survey data, and archival review reveal that industry-supported, ecosystem-focused proposals have been rejected by the New England Fishery Management Council, despite the apparent failure of single-species approaches to sustain fish populations, fished ecosystems, and fishing-dependent communities. The creation of groundfishery catch share sectors is likely to perpetuate industry consolidation and political entrenchment under more mobile capital, following precedent set by days-at-sea, and making area protections and gear restrictions less likely. Pending marine spatial planning efforts could enhance social-ecological resilience by creating new opportunities for transdisciplinary decision support, and broader public participation and accountability.

  18. A dual justification for science-based policy-making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, David Budtz

    2014-01-01

    Science-based policy-making has grown ever more important in recent years, in parallel with the dramatic increase in the complexity and uncertainty of the ways in which science and technology interact with society and economy at the national, regional and global level. Installing a proper framewo...

  19. Strengthening Science-based Environmental Policy Development in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Strengthening Science-based Environmental Policy Development in Burma's Democratic Transition. For decades, it was very difficult to complete, share or access development research in Burma. However, in the past two years, the Burmese political landscape has seen far-reaching changes. The military junta has ...

  20. Survey-Based Measurement of Public Management and Policy Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Adam Douglas; Lubell, Mark; McCoy, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Networks have become a central concept in the policy and public management literature; however, theoretical development is hindered by a lack of attention to the empirical properties of network measurement methods. This paper compares three survey-based methods for measuring organizational networks: the roster, the free-recall name generator, and…

  1. Evidence-based ICT Policy for Development and Innovation | CRDI ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Evidence-based ICT Policy for Development and Innovation. The cost of access to information and communication technologies (ITCs) in Africa remains the major impediment to the participation of Africans in the networked society. While Africa is the region with the fastest growing number of mobile phone subscribers in the ...

  2. NASA Earth Observations Informing Renewable Energy Management and Policy Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckman, Richard S.; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.

    2008-01-01

    The NASA Applied Sciences Program partners with domestic and international governmental organizations, universities, and private entities to improve their decisions and assessments. These improvements are enabled by using the knowledge generated from research resulting from spacecraft observations and model predictions conducted by NASA and providing these as inputs to the decision support and scenario assessment tools used by partner organizations. The Program is divided into eight societal benefit areas, aligned in general with the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) themes. The Climate Application of the Applied Sciences Program has as one of its focuses, efforts to provide for improved decisions and assessments in the areas of renewable energy technologies, energy efficiency, and climate change impacts. The goals of the Applied Sciences Program are aligned with national initiatives such as the U.S. Climate Change Science and Technology Programs and with those of international organizations including the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) and the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). Activities within the Program are funded principally through proposals submitted in response to annual solicitations and reviewed by peers.

  3. Improving the effectiveness of nutritional information policies: assessment of unconscious pleasure mechanisms involved in food-choice decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquier, Caroline; Bonthoux, Françoise; Baciu, Monica; Ruffieux, Bernard

    2012-02-01

    The rise in obesity in many countries has led to the emergence of nutritional information policies that aim to change people's diets. Changing an individual's diet is an ambitious goal, since numerous factors influence a person's food-choice decisions, many of which are made unconsciously. These frequently subconscious processes should not be underestimated in food-choice behavior, as they play a major role in food diet composition. In this review, research in cognitive experimental psychology and neuroscience provides the basis for a critical analysis of the role of pleasure in eating behaviors. An assessment of the main characteristics of nutritional policies is provided, followed by recent findings showing that food choices are guided primarily by automatic emotional processes. Neuroimaging and behavioral studies, which provide new insights into the relationships between emotions and food both in lean persons and in persons with eating disorders, are reported as well. Lastly, the argument is presented that future nutritional policies can be more effective if they associate healthy food with eating pleasure. © 2012 International Life Sciences Institute.

  4. To notify or not to notify : Decision aid for policy makers on whether to make an infectious disease mandatorily notifiable

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijkerk, Paul; Fanoy, E. B.; Kardamanidis, K.; van der Plas, S. M.; te Wierik, M. J.; Kretzschmar, M. E.; Haringhuizen, G. B.; van Vliet, H. J.; van der Sande, M. A.

    2015-01-01

    Mandatory notification can be a useful tool to support infectious disease prevention and control. Guidelines are needed to help policymakers decide whether mandatory notification of an infectious disease is appropriate. We developed a decision aid, based on a range of criteria previously used in the

  5. An Optimization of (Q,r Inventory Policy Based on Health Care Apparel Products with Compound Poisson Demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    An Pan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Addressing the problems of a health care center which produces tailor-made clothes for specific people, the paper proposes a single product continuous review model and establishes an optimal policy for the center based on (Q,r control policy to minimize expected average cost on an order cycle. A generic mathematical model to compute cost on real-time inventory level is developed to generate optimal order quantity under stochastic stock variation. The customer demands are described as compound Poisson process. Comparisons on cost between optimization method and experience-based decision on Q are made through numerical studies conducted for the inventory system of the center.

  6. An Extended EPQ-Based Problem with a Discontinuous Delivery Policy, Scrap Rate, and Random Breakdown

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singa Wang Chiu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In real supply chain environments, the discontinuous multidelivery policy is often used when finished products need to be transported to retailers or customers outside the production units. To address this real-life production-shipment situation, this study extends recent work using an economic production quantity- (EPQ- based inventory model with a continuous inventory issuing policy, defective items, and machine breakdown by incorporating a multiple delivery policy into the model to replace the continuous policy and investigates the effect on the optimal run time decision for this specific EPQ model. Next, we further expand the scope of the problem to combine the retailer’s stock holding cost into our study. This enhanced EPQ-based model can be used to reflect the situation found in contemporary manufacturing firms in which finished products are delivered to the producer’s own retail stores and stocked there for sale. A second model is developed and studied. With the help of mathematical modeling and optimization techniques, the optimal run times that minimize the expected total system costs comprising costs incurred in production units, transportation, and retail stores are derived, for both models. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the applicability of our research results.

  7. Behavioral Public Economics: Welfare and Policy Analysis with Non-Standard Decision-Makers

    OpenAIRE

    B. Douglas Bernheim; Antonio Rangel

    2005-01-01

    This paper has two goals. First, we discuss several emerging approaches to applied welfare analysis under non-standard (“behavioral”) assumptions concerning consumer choice. This provides a foundation for Behavioral Public Economics. Second, we illustrate applications of these approaches by surveying behavioral studies of policy problems involving saving, addiction, and public goods. We argue that the literature on behavioral public economics, though in its infancy, has already fundamentally ...

  8. The Influence of Entry Mode Decisions on International Marketing Policies. A Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio Musso

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Several studies on firms' marketing strategy in foreign markets revealed inconsistent resultsregarding the relationship between entry mode strategies and the adoption of marketing policies. Thisinconsistency was due to the diversity of assumptions used for the conceptualization of the influence of entrymodes on marketing strategies. The purpose of this paper is to offer a conceptual model that can support theanalysis of how the firm’s choice of entry mode may influence the adoption of marketing tools in the selectedmarket.

  9. Mapping Russian Media Network: Media’s Role in Russian Foreign Policy and Decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-14

    influence , the Presidential Administration can encourage large state-owned companies and Russian oligarchs to direct advertising toward or away from...instrument and lever of influence . The role of media in promoting Russian foreign policy and exerting the influence of President Vladimir Putin has...examine the role that Russia’s media and messaging plays in external influence . In addition, we highlight that while media is a key instrument of

  10. Racism, Gun Ownership and Gun Control: Biased Attitudes in US Whites May Influence Policy Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    O?Brien, Kerry; Forrest, Walter; Lynott, Dermot; Daly, Michael

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Racism is related to policies preferences and behaviors that adversely affect blacks and appear related to a fear of blacks (e.g., increased policing, death penalty). This study examined whether racism is also related to gun ownership and opposition to gun controls in US whites. METHOD: The most recent data from the American National Election Study, a large representative US sample, was used to test relationships between racism, gun ownership, and opposition to gun control in US wh...

  11. System and method for integrating hazard-based decision making tools and processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgin, C Reed [Westminster, CO

    2012-03-20

    A system and method for inputting, analyzing, and disseminating information necessary for identified decision-makers to respond to emergency situations. This system and method provides consistency and integration among multiple groups, and may be used for both initial consequence-based decisions and follow-on consequence-based decisions. The system and method in a preferred embodiment also provides tools for accessing and manipulating information that are appropriate for each decision-maker, in order to achieve more reasoned and timely consequence-based decisions. The invention includes processes for designing and implementing a system or method for responding to emergency situations.

  12. Payer decision making for next-generation sequencing-based genetic tests: insights from cell-free DNA prenatal screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dervan, Andrew P; Deverka, Patricia A; Trosman, Julia R; Weldon, Christine B; Douglas, Michael P; Phillips, Kathryn A

    2017-05-01

    Cell-free DNA (cfDNA) prenatal screening tests have been rapidly adopted into clinical practice, due in part to positive insurance coverage. We evaluated the framework payers used in making coverage decisions to describe a process that should be informative for other sequencing tests. We analyzed coverage policies from the 19 largest US private payers with publicly available policies through February 2016, building from the University of California San Francisco TRANSPERS Payer Coverage Policy Registry. All payers studied cover cfDNA screening for detection of trisomies 21, 18, and 13 in high-risk, singleton pregnancies, based on robust clinical validity (CV) studies and modeled evidence of clinical utility (CU). Payers typically evaluated the evidence for each chromosomal abnormality separately, although results are offered as part of a panel. Starting in August 2015, 8 of the 19 payers also began covering cfDNA screening in average-risk pregnancies, citing recent CV studies and updated professional guidelines. Most payers attempted, but were unable, to independently assess analytic validity (AV). Payers utilized the standard evidentiary framework (AV/CV/CU) when evaluating cfDNA screening but varied in their interpretation of the sufficiency of the evidence. Professional guidelines, large CV studies, and decision analytic models regarding health outcomes appeared highly influential in coverage decisions.Genet Med advance online publication 22 September 2016.

  13. Recollection- and familiarity-based decisions reflect memory strength

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Wiesmann

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available We used event-related fMRI to investigate whether recollection- and familiarity-based memory judgments are modulated by the degree of visual similarity between old and new art paintings. Subjects performed a flower detection task, followed by a Remember/Know/New surprise memory test. The old paintings were randomly presented with new paintings, which were either visually similar or visually different. Consistent with our prediction, subjects were significantly faster and more accurate to reject new, visually different paintings than new, visually similar ones. The proportion of false alarms, namely remember and know responses to new paintings, was significantly reduced with decreased visual similarity. The retrieval task evoked activation in multiple visual, parietal and prefrontal regions, within which remember judgments elicited stronger activation than know judgments. New, visually different paintings evoked weaker activation than new, visually similar items in the intraparietal sulcus. Contrasting recollection with familiarity revealed activation predominantly within the precuneus, where the BOLD response elicited by recollection peaked significantly earlier than the BOLD response evoked by familiarity judgments. These findings suggest that successful memory retrieval of pictures is mediated by activation in a distributed cortical network, where memory strength is manifested by differential hemodynamic profiles. Recollection- and familiarity-based memory decisions may therefore reflect strong memories and weak memories, respectively.

  14. Enabling Participatory Decision Making Through Web-Based GIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheng, Grant; Yam, Kevin; Hassas, Aranak [York Univ., Toronto, ON (Canada). Faculty of Environmental Studies

    2001-07-01

    , morals, ethical behaviour, our relationship with, and obligations to fellow human beings, animals, and the environment. People perceive that information travels essentially one way in the processes and the voices of the community and its members are not heard. Subsequently, they feel excluded from the actual decision making process and even from being able to participate meaningfully in the process. Recent advances in informatics and geomatics technology, such as the Internet, web-based software and geographic information systems (GIS), have made it possible to address these issues more effectively. We believe that the combined features of two software developed at the York Centre for Applied Sustainability can facilitate access to information, provide a virtual forum for discussion and debate, and it possible for individuals to participate in decision making process, and to infer peoples' values from their choice criteria selection.

  15. PROSPECTS OF THE REGIONAL INTEGRATION POLICY BASED ON CLUSTER FORMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Tsepilova

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to develop the theoretical foundations of regional integration policy and to determine its prospects on the basis of cluster formation. The authors use such research methods as systematization, comparative and complex analysis, synthesis, statistical method. Within the framework of the research, the concept of regional integration policy is specified, and its integration core – cluster – is allocated. The authors work out an algorithm of regional clustering, which will ensure the growth of economy and tax income. Measures have been proposed to optimize the organizational mechanism of interaction between the participants of the territorial cluster and the authorities that allow to ensure the effective functioning of clusters, including taxation clusters. Based on the results of studying the existing methods for assessing the effectiveness of cluster policy, the authors propose their own approach to evaluating the consequences of implementing the regional integration policy, according to which the list of quantitative and qualitative indicators is defined. The present article systematizes the experience and results of the cluster policy of certain European countries, that made it possible to determine the prospects and synergetic effect from the development of clusters as an integration foundation of regional policy in the Russian Federation. The authors carry out the analysis of activity of cluster formations using the example of the Rostov region – a leader in the formation of conditions for the cluster policy development in the Southern Federal District. 11 clusters and cluster initiatives are developing in this region. As a result, the authors propose measures for support of the already existing clusters and creation of the new ones.

  16. Following Human Footsteps: Proposal of a Decision Theory Based on Human Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmud, Faisal

    2011-01-01

    Human behavior is a complex nature which depends on circumstances and decisions varying from time to time as well as place to place. The way a decision is made either directly or indirectly related to the availability of the options. These options though appear at random nature, have a solid directional way for decision making. In this paper, a decision theory is proposed which is based on human behavior. The theory is structured with model sets that will show the all possible combinations for making a decision, A virtual and simulated environment is considered to show the results of the proposed decision theory

  17. INVESTIGATION OF FISCAL AND BUDGETARY POLICIES BASED ON ECONOMIC THEORIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EMILIA CAMPEANU

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Empirical analysis of fiscal and budgetary policies cannot be achieved without first knowing how they are viewed in the economic theories. This approach is important to indicate the position and implications of fiscal and budgetary policy tools in the economic theory considering their major differences. Therefore, the paper aims is to investigate the fiscal and budgetary policies based on economic theories such as neoclassical, Keynesian and neo-Keynesian theory in order to indicate their divergent points. Once known these approaches at the economic theory level is easier to establish the appropriate measures taking into consideration the framing of a country economy in a certain pattern. This work was supported from the European Social Fund through Sectoral Operational Programme Human Resources Development 2007-2013, project number POSDRU/89/1.5/S/59184 „Performance and excellence in postdoctoral research in Romanian economics science domain” (contract no. 0501/01.11.2010.

  18. Texas urban triangle : creating a spatial decision support system for mobility policy and investments that shape the sustainable growth of Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-01

    This project developed a GIS-based Spatial Decision Support System to help local, metropolitan, and state : jurisdictions and authorities in Texas understand the implications of transportation planning and : investment decisions, and plan appropriate...

  19. The policy on gender equality in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agustin, Lise Rolandsen

    The briefing paper describes current Danish policies, practices and legislation within the area of gender equality. It addresses economic independence, reconciliation policies, participation in decision-making, gender-based violence and trafficking, gender stereotypes, and gender equality...

  20. The greatest happiness of the greatest number? Policy actors' perspectives on the limits of economic evaluation as a tool for informing health care coverage decisions in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teerawattananon, Yot; Russell, Steve

    2008-09-26

    This paper presents qualitative findings from an assessment of the acceptability of using economic evaluation among policy actors in Thailand. Using cost-utility data from two economic analyses a hypothetical case scenario was created in which policy actors had to choose between two competing interventions to include in a public health benefit package. The two competing interventions, laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) for gallbladder disease versus renal dialysis for chronic renal disease, were selected because they highlighted conflicting criteria influencing the allocation of healthcare resources. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 36 policy actors who play a major role in resource allocation decisions within the Thai healthcare system. These included 14 policy makers at the national level, five hospital directors, ten health professionals and seven academics. Twenty six out of 36 (72%) respondents were not convinced by the presentation of economic evaluation findings and chose not to support the inclusion of a proven cost-effective intervention (LC) in the benefit package due to ethical, institutional and political considerations. There were only six respondents, including three policy makers at national level, one hospital director, one health professional and one academic, (6/36, 17%) whose decisions were influenced by economic evaluation evidence. This paper illustrates limitations of using economic evaluation information in decision making priorities of health care, perceived by different policy actors. It demonstrates that the concept of maximising health utility fails to recognise other important societal values in making health resource allocation decisions.

  1. The greatest happiness of the greatest number? Policy actors' perspectives on the limits of economic evaluation as a tool for informing health care coverage decisions in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russell Steve

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper presents qualitative findings from an assessment of the acceptability of using economic evaluation among policy actors in Thailand. Using cost-utility data from two economic analyses a hypothetical case scenario was created in which policy actors had to choose between two competing interventions to include in a public health benefit package. The two competing interventions, laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC for gallbladder disease versus renal dialysis for chronic renal disease, were selected because they highlighted conflicting criteria influencing the allocation of healthcare resources. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 36 policy actors who play a major role in resource allocation decisions within the Thai healthcare system. These included 14 policy makers at the national level, five hospital directors, ten health professionals and seven academics. Results Twenty six out of 36 (72% respondents were not convinced by the presentation of economic evaluation findings and chose not to support the inclusion of a proven cost-effective intervention (LC in the benefit package due to ethical, institutional and political considerations. There were only six respondents, including three policy makers at national level, one hospital director, one health professional and one academic, (6/36, 17% whose decisions were influenced by economic evaluation evidence. Conclusion This paper illustrates limitations of using economic evaluation information in decision making priorities of health care, perceived by different policy actors. It demonstrates that the concept of maximising health utility fails to recognise other important societal values in making health resource allocation decisions.

  2. Comparison of some classification algorithms based on deterministic and nondeterministic decision rules

    KAUST Repository

    Delimata, Paweł

    2010-01-01

    We discuss two, in a sense extreme, kinds of nondeterministic rules in decision tables. The first kind of rules, called as inhibitory rules, are blocking only one decision value (i.e., they have all but one decisions from all possible decisions on their right hand sides). Contrary to this, any rule of the second kind, called as a bounded nondeterministic rule, can have on the right hand side only a few decisions. We show that both kinds of rules can be used for improving the quality of classification. In the paper, two lazy classification algorithms of polynomial time complexity are considered. These algorithms are based on deterministic and inhibitory decision rules, but the direct generation of rules is not required. Instead of this, for any new object the considered algorithms extract from a given decision table efficiently some information about the set of rules. Next, this information is used by a decision-making procedure. The reported results of experiments show that the algorithms based on inhibitory decision rules are often better than those based on deterministic decision rules. We also present an application of bounded nondeterministic rules in construction of rule based classifiers. We include the results of experiments showing that by combining rule based classifiers based on minimal decision rules with bounded nondeterministic rules having confidence close to 1 and sufficiently large support, it is possible to improve the classification quality. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.

  3. Innovation Need Survey: Implementing a Technology Tool to Improve Early Data-Based Decisions to Address and Prevent Learning Disabilities. Technical Report #1602

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvin, P. Shawn; Pilger, Marissa; Sáez, Leilani; Alonzo, Julie

    2016-01-01

    Identifying and measuring indicators of learning difficulties among young children and implementing effective instructional approaches are complicated, particularly during the transition to kindergarten. Purposeful school-based transition policies and practices support teacher and school decision-making and, thus, can ease the…

  4. The for-profit sector in humanitarian response: integrating ethical considerations in public policy decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huckel Schneider, Carmen; Negin, Joel

    2016-01-01

    The engagement of the for-profit private sector in health, social and humanitarian services has become a topic of keen interest. It is particularly contentious in those instances where for-profit organizations have become recipients of public funds, and where they become key decision-makers in terms of how, and to whom, services are provided. We put forward a framework for identifying and organizing the ethical questions to be considered when contracting government services to the for-profit sector, specifically in those areas that have traditionally remained in the public or not-for-profit spheres. The framework is designed to inform both academic debate and practical decision-making regarding the acceptability, feasibility and legitimacy of for-profit organizations carrying out humanitarian work. First, we outline the importance of posing ethical questions in government contracting for-profit vs. not-for-profit organizations. We then outline five key areas to be considered before then examining the extent to which ethics concerns are warranted and how they may be safeguarded.

  5. Creating a GIS-Based Decision-Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarado, Lori; Gates, Ann Q.; Gray, Bob; Reyes, Raul

    1998-01-01

    Tilting the Balance: Climate Variability and Water Resource Management in the Southwest, a regional conference hosted by the Pan American Center for Environmental Studies, will be held at The University of Texas at El Paso on March 2-4, 1998. The conference is supported through the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) established by the President in 1989, and codified by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990. The NASA Mission to Planet Earth program is one of the workshops sponsors. The purpose of the regional workshops is to improve understanding of the consequences of global change. This workshop will be focused on issues along the border and the Rio Grande River and thus will bring together stakeholders from Mexico, California, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and Colorado representing federal, state, and local governments; universities and laboratories; industry, agricultural and natural resource managers; and non-governmental organizations. This paper discusses the efforts of the NASA PACES center create a GIS-based decision-support system that can be used to facilitate discussion of the complex issues of resource management within the targeted international region.

  6. A Bayesian decision approach to rainfall thresholds based flood warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. L. V. Martina

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Operational real time flood forecasting systems generally require a hydrological model to run in real time as well as a series of hydro-informatics tools to transform the flood forecast into relatively simple and clear messages to the decision makers involved in flood defense. The scope of this paper is to set forth the possibility of providing flood warnings at given river sections based on the direct comparison of the quantitative precipitation forecast with critical rainfall threshold values, without the need of an on-line real time forecasting system. This approach leads to an extremely simplified alert system to be used by non technical stakeholders and could also be used to supplement the traditional flood forecasting systems in case of system failures. The critical rainfall threshold values, incorporating the soil moisture initial conditions, result from statistical analyses using long hydrological time series combined with a Bayesian utility function minimization. In the paper, results of an application of the proposed methodology to the Sieve river, a tributary of the Arno river in Italy, are given to exemplify its practical applicability.

  7. Sustainable development based energy policy making frameworks, a critical review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyar-Naimi, H.; Vaez-Zadeh, S.

    2012-01-01

    This paper, in the first step, presents an overview of the origination and formulation of sustainable development (SD) concept and the related policy making frameworks. The frameworks include Pressure–State–Response (PSR), Driving Force–State–Response (DSR), Driving Force–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR), Driving Force–Pressure–State–Effect–Action (DPSEA) and Driving Force-Pressure-State-Exposure-Effect-Action (DPSEEA). In this regard, 40 case studies using the reviewed frameworks reported during 1994–2011 are surveyed. Then, their application area and application intensity are investigated. It is concluded that PSR, and DPSEA and DPSEEA have the higher and lower application intensities, respectively. Moreover, using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with a set of criteria, it is shown that PSR and DPSIR have the highest and lowest priorities. Finally, the shortcomings of frameworks applications are discussed. The paper is helpful in selecting appropriate policy making frameworks and presents some hints for future research in the area for developing more comprehensive models especially for sustainable electric energy policy making. - Highlights: ► The origination and formulation of sustainable development (SD) concept is reviewed. ► SD based frameworks (PSR, DSR, DPSIR, DPSEA and DPSEEA) are also reviewed. ► Then, the frameworks application area and intensity in recent years are investigated. ► Finally, the SD concept and the SD based frameworks are criticized. ► It will be helpful for developing more comprehensive energy policy making models.

  8. Combining Bayesian Networks and Agent Based Modeling to develop a decision-support model in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nong, Bao Anh; Ertsen, Maurits; Schoups, Gerrit

    2016-04-01

    Complexity and uncertainty in natural resources management have been focus themes in recent years. Within these debates, with the aim to define an approach feasible for water management practice, we are developing an integrated conceptual modeling framework for simulating decision-making processes of citizens, in our case in the Day river area, Vietnam. The model combines Bayesian Networks (BNs) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). BNs are able to combine both qualitative data from consultants / experts / stakeholders, and quantitative data from observations on different phenomena or outcomes from other models. Further strengths of BNs are that the relationship between variables in the system is presented in a graphical interface, and that components of uncertainty are explicitly related to their probabilistic dependencies. A disadvantage is that BNs cannot easily identify the feedback of agents in the system once changes appear. Hence, ABM was adopted to represent the reaction among stakeholders under changes. The modeling framework is developed as an attempt to gain better understanding about citizen's behavior and factors influencing their decisions in order to reduce uncertainty in the implementation of water management policy.

  9. Population-based learning of load balancing policies for a distributed computer system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehra, Pankaj; Wah, Benjamin W.

    1993-01-01

    Effective load-balancing policies use dynamic resource information to schedule tasks in a distributed computer system. We present a novel method for automatically learning such policies. At each site in our system, we use a comparator neural network to predict the relative speedup of an incoming task using only the resource-utilization patterns obtained prior to the task's arrival. Outputs of these comparator networks are broadcast periodically over the distributed system, and the resource schedulers at each site use these values to determine the best site for executing an incoming task. The delays incurred in propagating workload information and tasks from one site to another, as well as the dynamic and unpredictable nature of workloads in multiprogrammed multiprocessors, may cause the workload pattern at the time of execution to differ from patterns prevailing at the times of load-index computation and decision making. Our load-balancing policy accommodates this uncertainty by using certain tunable parameters. We present a population-based machine-learning algorithm that adjusts these parameters in order to achieve high average speedups with respect to local execution. Our results show that our load-balancing policy, when combined with the comparator neural network for workload characterization, is effective in exploiting idle resources in a distributed computer system.

  10. European Union research in support of environment and health: Building scientific evidence base for policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karjalainen, Tuomo; Hoeveler, Arnd; Draghia-Akli, Ruxandra

    2017-06-01

    Opinion polls show that the European Union citizens are increasingly concerned about the impact of environmental factors on their health. In order to respond and provide solid scientific evidence for the numerous policies related to the protection of human health and the environment managed at the Union level, the European Union made a substantial investment in research and innovation in the past two decades through its Framework Programmes for Research and Technological Development, including the current programme, Horizon 2020, which started in 2014. This policy review paper analysed the portfolio of forty collaborative projects relevant to environment and health, which received a total amount of around 228 million euros from the EU. It gives details on their contents and general scientific trends observed, the profiles of the participating countries and institutions, and the potential policy implications of the results obtained. The increasing knowledge base is needed to make informed policy decisions in Europe and beyond, and should be useful to many stakeholders including the scientific community and regulatory authorities. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  11. Canada's implementation of the Paragraph 6 Decision: is it sustainable public policy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cosio Andre

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Following the Implementation of Paragraph 6 of the Doha Declaration on TRIPS and Public Health, Canada was among the first countries globally to amend its patent law, which resulted in Canada's Access to Medicines Regime (CAMR. CAMR allows the production and export of generic drugs to developing countries without the requisite manufacturing capacity to undertake a domestic compulsory license. CAMR has been the subject of much criticism lodged at its inability to ensure fast access to urgent medicines for least developing and developing countries in need. Only recently did the Canadian government grant Apotex the compulsory licenses required under CAMR to produce and export antiretroviral therapy to Rwanda's population. Methods The objective of this research is to investigate whether the CAMR can feasibly achieve its humanitarian objectives given the political interests embedded in the crafting of the legislation. We used a political economy framework to analyze the effect of varied institutions, political processes, and economic interests on public policy outcomes. In-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with nineteen key stakeholders from government, civil society and industry. Qualitative data analysis was performed using open-coding for themes, analyzing by stakeholder group. Results CAMR is removed from the realities of developing countries and the pharmaceutical market. The legislation needs to include commercial incentives to galvanize the generic drug industry to make use of this legislation. CAMR assumes that developing country governments have the requisite knowledge and human resource capacity to make use of the regime, which is not the case. The legislation does not offer sufficient incentives for countries to turn to Canada when needed drugs may be procured cheaply from countries such as India. In the long term, developing and least developing countries seek sustainable solutions to meet the health

  12. MANAGERIAL DECISIONS BASED ON THE BREAKEVEN POINT IN AGRICULTURAL EXPLOITATIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Ioan Pana; Maria-Daniela Bondoc

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents some characteristics of agricultural activities in both production sectors (vegetal and zootechnical) and their implications on the costs structure (fixed and variables costs) for the decision-making process on breakeven point.

  13. Web-Based Group Decision Support System: an Economic Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion ISTUDOR

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision Support Systems (DSS form a specific class of computerized information systems that support business and managerial decision-making activities. Making the right decision in business primarily depends on the quality of data. It also depends on the ability to analyze the data with a view to identifying trends that can suggest solutions and strategies. A “cooperative” decision support system means the data are collected, analyzed and then provided to a human agent who can help the system to revise or refine the data. It means that both a human component and computer component work together to come up with the best solution. This paper describes the usage of a software product (Vanguard System to a specific economic application (evaluating the financial risk assuming that the rate of the economic profitability can be under the value of the interest rate.

  14. Risk-Based Decision Support of Water Resource Management Alternatives

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    West, Paul D; Trainor, Timothy E

    2006-01-01

    .... A model is presented that combines a new risk assessment methodology with traditional decision-making tools to enable systems engineers to capture the full spectrum of operational risks during the design process...

  15. GUIDED TOUR OF A WEB-BASED ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION TOOLKIT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decision-making regarding the targeting of vulnerable resources and prioritization of actions requires synthesis of data on condition, vulnerability, and feasibility of risk management alternatives. EP A's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReV A) Program has evaluated existing a...

  16. First policy then science: why a management unit based solely on genetic criteria cannot work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, B L; Dizon, A E

    1999-12-01

    In contrast to the goals of the symposium from which this series of papers originated, we argue that attempts to apply unambiguously defined and general management unit criteria based solely on genetic parameters can easily lead to incorrect management decisions. We maintain that conservation genetics is best served by altering the perspective of data analysis so that decision making is optimally facilitated. To do so requires accounting for policy objectives early in the design and execution of the science. This contrasts with typical hypothesis testing approaches to analysing genetic data for determining population structure, which often aspire to objectivity by considering management objectives only after the analysis is complete. The null hypothesis is generally taken as panmixia with a strong predilection towards avoiding false acceptance of the alternative hypothesis (the existence of population structure). We show by example how defining management units using genetic data and standard scientific analyses that do not consider either the specific management objectives or the anthropogenic risks facing the populations being studied can easily result in a management failure by losing local populations. We then use the same example to show how an 'applied' approach driven by specific objectives and knowledge of abundance and mortality results in appropriate analyses and better decisions. Because management objectives stem from public policy, which differs among countries and among species groups, criteria for defining management units must be specific, not general. Therefore, we conclude that the most productive way to define management units is on a case-by-case basis. We also suggest that creating analytical tools designed specifically to address decision making in a management context, rather than re-tooling academic tools designed for other purposes, will increase and improve the use of genetics in conservation.

  17. A Knowledge- Based Decision Support Architecture for Advanced Traffic Management

    OpenAIRE

    Ritchie, Stephen G.

    1990-01-01

    Fundamental to the operation of most currently envisioned Intelligent Vehicle-Roadway System (IVRS) projects are advanced systems for surveillance, control and management of integrated freeway and arterial networks. A major concern in the development of such Smart Roads, and the focus of this paper, is the provision of decision support for traffic management center personnel, particularly for addressing nonrecurring congestion in large or complex networks. Decision support for control room st...

  18. An Intuitionistic Fuzzy Stochastic Decision-Making Method Based on Case-Based Reasoning and Prospect Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the case-based reasoning method and prospect theory, this paper mainly focuses on finding a way to obtain decision-makers’ preferences and the criterion weights for stochastic multicriteria decision-making problems and classify alternatives. Firstly, we construct a new score function for an intuitionistic fuzzy number (IFN considering the decision-making environment. Then, we aggregate the decision-making information in different natural states according to the prospect theory and test decision-making matrices. A mathematical programming model based on a case-based reasoning method is presented to obtain the criterion weights. Moreover, in the original decision-making problem, we integrate all the intuitionistic fuzzy decision-making matrices into an expectation matrix using the expected utility theory and classify or rank the alternatives by the case-based reasoning method. Finally, two illustrative examples are provided to illustrate the implementation process and applicability of the developed method.

  19. Improving energy decisions towards better scientific policy advice for a safe and secure future energy system

    CERN Document Server

    Droste-Franke, Bert; Kaiser, M; Schreurs, Miranda; Weber, Christoph; Ziesemer, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Managing a successful transition of the current energy supply system to less carbon emitting options, ensuring a safe and secure supply during the whole process and in the long term, is one of the largest challenges of our time. Various approaches and first implementations show that it is not only technological issue, but also a matter of societal acceptance and acceptability, considering basic ethic values of the society. The main foci of the book are, thus, to develop an understanding about the specific challenges of the scientific policy advice in the area, to explore typical current approaches for the analysis of future energy systems and to develop criteria for the quality assessment and guidelines for the improvement of such studies. The book provides assistance to the interpretation of existing studies and guidelines for setting up and carrying out new analyses as well as for communicating and applying the results. Thereby, it aims to support the involved actors such as the respective scientific expert...

  20. Pricing and ordering decisions of two competing supply chains with different composite policies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taleizadeh, Ata Allah; Noori-Daryan, Mahsa; Govindan, Kannan

    2016-01-01

    In todays global highly competitive markets, competition happens among supply chains instead of companies, as the members of supply chains. So, the partners of the chains seek to apply efficient coordinating strategies like discount, return, refund, buyback, or the other coordinating policies...... to abate the operation costs of the chains and subsequently increase market shares. Hence, because of the importance and application of these strategies in the current non-exclusive markets, in this study, we introduce different composite coordinating strategies to enhance the coordination of the supply...... chains. Here, we consider two competing supply chains where both chains launch the same product under different brands to the market by applying different composite coordinating strategies. Each supply chain comprises one manufacturer and a group of non-competing retailers where the manufacturer receives...

  1. Environmental Quality as a Decisive Variable in Shaping Regional Development Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Perło Dorota

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The article examines the impact of environmental quality on shaping the development policy of Polish voivodeships. The main analytical tool used was the synthetic index of environmental quality, compiled by means of the Perkal method. It was constructed in order to organize Polish voivodeships in terms of environmental quality, which was determined in a comprehensive way on the basis of three thematic areas: advantages of the natural environment, the level of pollution (degradation of the environment as well as active protective activities. The obtained values of synthetic measures were then compared to the level of economic growth of Polish regions. It was necessary in determining which voivodeships perceive the quality of the environment as the main factor enhancing their economic growth, and which treat it as a barrier to economic development.

  2. Key factors that influence government policies and decision making about healthcare priorities: Lessons for the field of eating disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whiteford, Harvey; Weissman, Ruth Striegel

    2017-03-01

    Worldwide, the demand for healthcare exceeds what individuals and governments are able to afford. Priority setting is therefore inevitable, and mental health services have often been given low priority in the decision-making process. Drawing on established economic criteria, and specifically the work of Philip Musgrove, key factors which influence government decision-making about health priorities are reviewed. These factors include the size of the health burden, the availability of cost-effective interventions to reduce the burden, whether private markets can provide the necessary treatment efficiently, whether there are "catastrophic costs" incurred in accessing treatment, whether negative externalities arise from not providing care, and if the "rule of rescue" applies. Beyond setting priorities for resource allocation, governments also become involved where there is a need for regulation to maintain quality in the delivery of healthcare. By providing field-specific examples for each factor, we illustrate how advocates in the eating disorder field may use evidence to inform government policy about resource allocation and regulation in support of individuals with an eating disorder. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. The cell based therapy and the policy implications in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhopadhyay, Bratati; Basak, Saroj K; Ganguly, Nirmal K

    2011-01-01

    The recent scientific development using stem or other differentiated cells has generated great hopes for treatment of various diseases. Major thrust has been given to formulate country specific laws and regulations considering international guidelines to conduct research and clinical applications of "Cell Based Therapy" (CBT) all over the world. Attempts have made in this review to discuss the current policies that are practiced by various countries in the areas related to CBT with special emphasis on CBT related research and development in India. The two major funding agencies of Government of India e.g. Department of Biotechnology (DBT) and Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), have jointly formulated the "Guidelines for Stem Cell Research and Therapy" in 2007 which requires update and revision. Based on the review of the current world scenario of CBT research and development, suggestions have been made for the development of a new CBT policy that will help in progress of research and patient treatment in India.

  4. An evaluation of the role of risk-based decision-making in a former manufactured gas plant site remediation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vyas, Vikram M; Gochfeld, Michael G; Georgopoulos, Panos G; Lioy, Paul J; Sussman, Nancy R

    2006-02-01

    Environmental remediation decisions are driven by the need to minimize human health and ecological risks posed by environmental releases. The Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund Sites enunciates the principles of exposure and risk assessment that are to be used for reaching remediation decisions for sites under Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). Experience with remediation management under CERCLA has led to recognition of some crucial infirmities in the processes for managing remediation: cleanup management policies are ad hoc in character, mandates and practices are strongly conservative, and contaminant risk management occurs in an artificially narrow context. The purpose of this case study is to show how a policy of risk-based decision-making was used to avoid customary pitfalls in site remediation. This case study describes the risk-based decision-making process in a remedial action program at a former manufactured gas plant site that successfully achieved timely and effective cleanup. The remediation process operated outside the confines of the CERCLA process under an administrative consent order between the utility and the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. A residential use end state was negotiated as part of this agreement. The attendant uncertainties, complications, and unexpected contingencies were overcome by using the likely exposures associated with the desired end state to structure all of the remediation management decisions and by collecting site-specific information from the very outset to obtain a detailed and realistic characterization of human health risks that needed to be mitigated. The lessons from this case study are generalizable to more complicated remediation cases, when supported by correspondingly sophisticated technical approaches.

  5. A Human-Needs-Based Dynamics to Simulate Technology Policy and Its Effects on Both Business Success and Human Happiness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong-Yeon Lim

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on how human needs are reflected in the market and how several technological and political policies affect the market share of government-supported industries, as well as the satisfaction of human desires and consequent happiness. In this paper, we seek to understand the dynamics of consumer decision-making processes in relation to technology products in the market. In this study, we present a new marketing model based on human needs, wants, and demands, and focus on both holistic and social perspectives. We have shown that human-based policy dynamics and sustainable human happiness can be realized by stimulating national policies for consumer happiness in the human-needs-based sector, e.g., the healthcare industry.

  6. Strengthening vaccination policies in Latin America: an evidence-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapia-Conyer, Roberto; Betancourt-Cravioto, Miguel; Saucedo-Martínez, Rodrigo; Motta-Murguía, Lourdes; Gallardo-Rincón, Héctor

    2013-08-20

    Despite many successes in the region, Latin American vaccination policies have significant shortcomings, and further work is needed to maintain progress and prepare for the introduction of newly available vaccines. In order to address the challenges facing Latin America, the Commission for the Future of Vaccines in Latin America (COFVAL) has made recommendations for strengthening evidence-based policy-making and reducing regional inequalities in immunisation. We have conducted a comprehensive literature review to assess the feasibility of these recommendations. Standardisation of performance indicators for disease burden, vaccine coverage, epidemiological surveillance and national health resourcing can ensure comparability of the data used to assess vaccination programmes, allowing deeper analysis of how best to provide services. Regional vaccination reference schemes, as used in Europe, can be used to develop best practice models for vaccine introduction and scheduling. Successful models exist for the continuous training of vaccination providers and decision-makers, with a new Latin American diploma aiming to contribute to the successful implementation of vaccination programmes. Permanent, independent vaccine advisory committees, based on the US Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), could facilitate the uptake of new vaccines and support evidence-based decision-making in the administration of national immunisation programmes. Innovative financing mechanisms for the purchase of new vaccines, such as advance market commitments and cost front-loading, have shown potential for improving vaccine coverage. A common regulatory framework for vaccine approval is needed to accelerate delivery and pool human, technological and scientific resources in the region. Finally, public-private partnerships between industry, government, academia and non-profit sectors could provide new investment to stimulate vaccine development in the region, reducing prices in the

  7. Confidence-Based Robot Policy Learning from Demonstration

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-05

    Development of a small biped entertainment robot QRIO. In Micro- Nanomechatronics and Human Science, 2004, pages 23–28, 2004. [45] Odest Chadwicke Jenkins...adaptation of biped locomotion. Robotics and Autonomous Systems, 47:79–91, 2004. [60] Ulrich Nehmzow, Otar Akanyeti, Cristoph Weinrich, Theocharis...Confidence-Based Robot Policy Learning from Demonstration Sonia Chernova CMU-CS-09-105 March 5, 2009 School of Computer Science Computer Science

  8. Assessing of energy policies based on Turkish agriculture:

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sayin, Cengiz; Nisa Mencet, M.; Ozkan, Burhan

    2005-01-01

    In this study, the current energy status of Turkey and the effects of national energy policies on Turkish agricultural support policies are discussed for both current and future requirements. Turkey is an energy-importing country producing 30 mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent) energy but consuming 80 mtoe. The energy import ratio of Turkey is 65-70% and the majority of this import is based on petroleum and natural gas. Furthermore, while world energy demand increases by 1.8% annually, Turkey's energy demand increases by about 8%. Although energy consumption in agriculture is much lower than the other sectors in Turkey, energy use as both input and output of agricultural sector is a very important issue due to its large agricultural potential and rural area. Total agricultural land area is 27.8 million hectares and about 66.5% of this area is devoted for cereal production. On the other hand, Turkey has over 4 million agricultural farm holdings of which 70-75% is engaged in cereal production. Machinery expenses, mainly diesel, constitute 30-50% of total variable expenses in cereal production costs. It is observed that energy policies pursued in agriculture have been directly affected by diesel prices in Turkey. Therefore, support policy tools for using diesel and electricity in agriculture are being pursued by the Turkish government

  9. Hiv treatment as prevention: Models, data, and questions-towards evidence-based decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T. Bärnighausen (Till); Becker, S. (Stephen); A. Bendavid (Avrom); A. Bershteyn (Anna); J. Blandford (John); M-C. Boily (Marie-Claude); Burns, D. (David); V. Cambiano (Valentina); Cohen, M.S. (Myron S.); Cremin, Í. (Íde); Delva, W. (Wim); Dye, C. (Christopher); J.W. Eaton (Jeffrey); M. Egger (Matthias); C. Fraser (Christophe); Galai, N. (Noya); D. Garnett; Ghys, P.D. (Peter D.); T.B. Hallett (Timothy); Heaton, L. (Laura); C.B. Holmes (Charles ); J.A.C. Hontelez (Jan); Jewell, B. (Britta); Keiser, O. (Olivia); D.J. Klein (David); Lima, V. (Viviane); Long, E. (Elisa); Lyerla, R. (Rob); Marais, C. (Christiaan); Meng, F. (Fei); G. Meyer-Rath (Gesine); Miller, W.C. (William C.); N. Muraguri (Nicholas); B.E. Nichols (Brooke); Nigmatulina, K.R. (Karima R.); Over, M. (Mead); Padian, N. (Nancy); A. Phillips (Andrew); C. Pretorius (Carel); C. Rousseau (Christine); J.A. Salomon (Joshua A); N. Sangrujee (Nalinee); D. Serwadda; F. Tanser (Frank); Vesga, J.F. (Juan F.); K. Vickerman; Walker, D. (Damian); Wang, R. (Rui); Welte, A. (Alex); R.G. White (Richard); B. Williams (Brian); D.C. Wilson (David); Wilson, D. (David); B. Zaba (Basia)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractAntiretroviral therapy (ART) for those infected with HIV can prevent onward transmission of infection, but biological efficacy alone is not enough to guide policy decisions about the role of ART in reducing HIV incidence. Epidemiology, economics, demography, statistics, biology, and

  10. A difficult balancing act: policy actors' perspectives on using economic evaluation to inform health-care coverage decisions under the Universal Health Insurance Coverage scheme in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teerawattananon, Yot; Russell, Steve

    2008-03-01

    In Thailand, policymakers have come under increasing pressure to use economic evaluation to inform health-care resource allocation decisions, especially after the introduction of the Universal Health Insurance Coverage (UC) scheme. This article presents qualitative findings from research that assessed a range of policymakers' perspectives on the acceptability of using economic evaluation for the development of health-care benefit packages in Thailand. The policy analysis examined their opinions about existing decision-making processes for including health interventions in the UC benefit package, their understanding of health economic evaluation, and their attitudes, acceptance, and values relating to the use of the method. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 36 policy actors who play a major role or have some input into health resource allocation decisions within the Thai health-care system. These included 14 senior policymakers at the national level, 5 hospital directors, 10 health professionals, and 7 academics. Policy actors thought that economic evaluation information was relevant for decision-making because of the increasing need for rationing and more transparent criteria for making UC coverage decisions. Nevertheless, they raised several difficulties with using economic evaluation that would pose barriers to its introduction, including distrust in the method, conflicting philosophical positions and priorities compared to that of "health maximization," organizational allegiances, existing decision-making procedures that would be hard to change, and concerns about political pressure and acceptability.

  11. Fundamentals of the fuzzy logic-based generalized theory of decisions

    CERN Document Server

    Aliev, Rafik Aziz

    2013-01-01

    Every day decision making and decision making in complex human-centric systems are characterized by imperfect decision-relevant information. Main drawback of the existing decision theories is namely incapability to deal with imperfect information and modeling vague preferences. Actually, a paradigm of non-numerical probabilities in decision making has a long history and arose also in Keynes’s analysis of uncertainty. There is a need for further generalization – a move to decision theories with perception-based imperfect information described in NL. The languages of new decision models for human-centric systems should be not languages based on binary logic but human-centric computational schemes able to operate on NL-described information. Development of new theories is now possible due to an increased computational power of information processing systems which allows for computations with imperfect information, particularly, imprecise and partially true information, which are much more complex than comput...

  12. Intuitive decision making as a gradual process: investigating semantic intuition-based and priming-based decisions with fMRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zander, Thea; Horr, Ninja K; Bolte, Annette; Volz, Kirsten G

    2016-01-01

    Intuition has been defined as the instantaneous, experience-based impression of coherence elicited by cues in the environment. In a context of discovery, intuitive decision-making processes can be conceptualized as occurring within two stages, the first of which comprises an implicit perception of coherence that is not (yet) verbalizable. Through a process of spreading activation, this initially non-conscious perception gradually crosses over a threshold of awareness and thereby becomes explicable. Because of its experiential basis, intuition shares conceptual similarities with implicit memory processes. Based on these, the study addresses two research questions: (1) Is the gradual nature of intuitive processes reflected on a neural level? (2) Do intuition-based decisions differ neurally from priming-based decisions? To answer these questions, we conducted an fMRI study using the triads task and presented participants with coherent word triads that converge on a common fourth concept, and incoherent word triads that do not converge on a common fourth concept. Participants had to perform semantic coherence judgments as well as to indicate whether they immediately knew the fourth concept. To enable investigating intuition-based and priming-based decisions within the same task and with the same participants, we implemented a conceptual priming procedure into the coherence judgment task. We realized this by priming participants with concepts associated with incoherent triads in separate priming blocks prior to the coherence judgments. For intuition-based decisions, imaging results mainly revealed activity within the orbitofrontal cortex, within the inferior frontal gyrus and the middle temporal gyrus. Activity suppression in the right temporo-occipital complex was observed for priming-based decisions. With respect to research question 1, our data support a continuity model of intuition because the two intuitive stages show quantitatively distinct brain activation

  13. Area-based initiatives – engines of innovation in planning and policy?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Jacob Norvig; Agger, Annika

    a broader perspective on the achievements and outcomes of place-based initiatives. Many of these have functioned as important experimental seedbeds in which innovations in urban policy and organization of public decision-making have been tested. The papers seeks to clarify whether, in the long run, change......Area-based initiatives addressing issues of physical degradation, social exclusion, economic deprivation and lack of cohesion in urban regeneration areas have been promoted widely across Europe in the past two or three decades. Following this many evaluation studies have been completed....... Nevertheless, there is still considerable uncertainty as to the most important outcomes of place-based initiatives. Evaluations have mostly focussed on direct quantitative socio-economic indicators. These have often been quite insignificant, while other effects have been largely neglected. This paper proposes...

  14. Assessing the impact of policy interventions on the adoption of plug-in electric vehicles: An agent-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silvia, Chris; Krause, Rachel M.

    2016-01-01

    Heightened concern regarding climate change and energy independence has increased interest in plug-in electric vehicles as one means to address these challenges and governments at all levels have considered policy interventions to encourage their adoption. This paper develops an agent-based model that simulates the introduction of four policy scenarios aimed at promoting electric vehicle adoption in an urban community and compares them against a baseline. These scenarios include reducing vehicle purchase price via subsidies, expanding the local public charging network, increasing the number and visibility of fully battery electric vehicles (BEVs) on the roadway through government fleet purchases, and a hybrid mix of these three approaches. The results point to the effectiveness of policy options that increased awareness of BEV technology. Specifically, the hybrid policy alternative was the most successful in encouraging BEV adoption. This policy increases the visibility and familiarity of BEV technology in the community and may help counter the idea that BEVs are not a viable alternative to gasoline-powered vehicles. - Highlights: •Various policy interventions to encourage electric vehicle adoption are examined. •An agent based model is used to simulate individual adoption decisions. •Policies that increase the familiarity of electric vehicles are most effective.

  15. Decisions, Decisions!

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFadden, F. Lee

    1975-01-01

    A self-instructional program on decision making was used in conjunction with workshops to introduce the staff of an instructional materials company to the decision tree process as they used it to study their own film production problem. (Author/MS)

  16. Research on AHP decision algorithms based on BP algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Ning; Guan, Jianhe

    2017-10-01

    Decision making is the thinking activity that people choose or judge, and scientific decision-making has always been a hot issue in the field of research. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a simple and practical multi-criteria and multi-objective decision-making method that combines quantitative and qualitative and can show and calculate the subjective judgment in digital form. In the process of decision analysis using AHP method, the rationality of the two-dimensional judgment matrix has a great influence on the decision result. However, in dealing with the real problem, the judgment matrix produced by the two-dimensional comparison is often inconsistent, that is, it does not meet the consistency requirements. BP neural network algorithm is an adaptive nonlinear dynamic system. It has powerful collective computing ability and learning ability. It can perfect the data by constantly modifying the weights and thresholds of the network to achieve the goal of minimizing the mean square error. In this paper, the BP algorithm is used to deal with the consistency of the two-dimensional judgment matrix of the AHP.

  17. Contraceptive practices in Nigeria: Literature review and recommendation for future policy decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel Monjok

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Emmanuel Monjok1, Andrea Smesny1, John E Ekabua2, E James Essien11Institute of Community Health, University of Houston, Texas, USA; 2Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Calabar, NigeriaAbstract: The current prevalence rate for contraceptive use in Nigeria is approximately 11%–13%. This rate is very low in spite of the high rate of sexual activity and widespread awareness of the various contraceptive methods among Nigerian adolescence and youths. As a result there are many unintended pregnancies and illegal abortions contributing to a high maternal mortality ratio, which seems to indicate a large unmet need for contraceptive use. There is ample research evidence identifying the various factors that contribute to the low prevalence of modern contraceptive use in Nigeria, with the most common factor being the myth about the side effects of modern contraceptives. However, what is lacking is a political will in Nigeria to provide family planning programs on a much larger scale, using community-oriented approaches and communication programs, to help change the myth about the side effects of modern contraceptives. This review highlights current methods and concepts in contraception, reasons for low contraceptive use and practice in Nigeria, and the need for Nigeria to generate a political priority and a will to make a change in maternal health indicators, with the ultimate goal of providing direction to guide changes in the Nigerian Population Policy as it affects contraceptive use and family planning.Keywords: contraceptive practice, literature review, research, Nigeria

  18. Use of decision criteria based on expected values to support decision-making in a production assurance and safety setting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Flage, R.

    2009-01-01

    We consider decision problems related to production assurance and safety. The issue is to what extent we should use decision criteria based on expected values, such as the expected net present value (E[NPV]) and the expected cost per expected number of saved lives (ICAF), to guide the decision. Such criteria are recognised as practical tools for supporting decision-making under uncertainty, but is uncertainty adequately taken into account by these criteria? Based on the prevailing practice and the existing literature, we conclude that there is a need for a clarification of the rationale of these criteria. Adjustments of the standard approaches have been suggested to reflect risks and uncertainties, but can cautionary and precautionary concerns be replaced by formulae and mechanical procedures? These issues are discussed in the present paper, particularly addressing the company level. We argue that the search for such formulae and procedures should be replaced by a more balanced perspective acknowledging that there will always be a need for management review and judgment beyond the realm of the analyses. Most of the suggested adjustments of the E[NPV] and ICAF approaches should be avoided. They add more confusion than value.

  19. Multiattribute Grey Target Decision Method Based on Soft Set Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With respect to the Multiattribute decision-making problems in which the evaluation attribute sets are different and the evaluating values of alternatives are interval grey numbers, a multiattribute grey target decision-making method in which the attribute sets are different was proposed. The concept of grey soft set was defined, and its “AND” operation was assigned by combining the intersection operation of grey number. The expression approach of new grey soft set of attribute sets considering by all decision makers were gained by applying the “AND” operation of grey soft set, and the weights of synthesis attribute were proved. The alternatives were ranked according to the size of distance of bull’s eyes of each alternative under synthetic attribute sets. The green supplier selection was illustrated to demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed model.

  20. Sources and Chronology of Nitrate Contamination of Spring Waters: Integrating Science and Policy Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katz, B. G.; Stevenson, J. A.

    2002-12-01

    Human health and ecological concerns have arisen regarding spring waters in Florida as a steady increase in nitrate concentrations has been observed during the past 30 years. The extensive aesthetic, cultural, and recreational value of these springs, which also supply water for human consumption and support critical ecological habitats, could be threatened by the presence of nitrate. As part of the response to these concerns by the State of Florida, several research studies have used various chemical and isotopic tracers to determine sources of nitrate contamination and age of ground water discharging from springs. Since 1997, 60 water samples have been collected from 44 springs and analyzed for isotopic (15N, 3H/3He, 18O, 2H, 13C) and other chemical tracers (CFCs, major ions, dissolved gases, SF6). Delta 15N values of nitrate ranged from 2.6 to 12.9 per mil (median = 5.8 per mil) and indicated that nitrate in most spring waters originated from synthetic fertilizers. CFCs, 3H/3He, and SF6, used to estimate the residence time of ground water discharging from springs, indicated that spring-water ages ranged from 5 to 39 years. Concentrations of these multiple transient tracers are consistent with a two-component hydrologic model with mixtures of varying proportions of young water (less than 8 years) from the shallow part of the aquifer system and older water (20-50 years) from the deeper part of the flow system. Given residence times of 20-40 years for ground water discharging from most springs, it could take decades for nitrate concentrations to decrease to near background levels, even with immediate reductions in nitrogen inputs to the land surface. These research results are being used by the State of Florida to inform elected officials, water-resource mangers, and planners that decisions about land use today will affect the quality of ground water in springs for decades.

  1. CRAVING FOR BALANCED PUBLIC DECISION-MAKING ON MARKET FAILURE PERTAINING TO THE INTERVENTIONIST ECONOMIC POLICIES STRAINER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bitoiu Teodora

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The research proposes a topic of very high interest for both our national economy and the European economy as it refers to the negative externalities and their role in the economic theory of subsidiarity developed as part of the multilevel governance. The case of the negative externalities represents one of the six situations of market interventions (due to the non Pareto efficient status and, moreover, their specific case (pollution is on the priority list of the European Union (Treaty establishing the European Community (Art. 174/130r – EC Treaty establishing the polluter pays principle (PPP. Romania does not have a broad experience in this area (as it is also a new Member State or if it has it is one that has confirmed our lack of expertise (e.g. the case of the eco-duty. In order to contribute to knowledge building in this field, the project aims at developing a methodology in the area of public decision-making for a particular market failure (externalities/spillovers by appealing to the instruments provided by the multilevel governance vision and its subsidiarity principle so to provide a more efficient relationship between the costs and the benefits of a solid environmental policy. This methodology, imagined as a decision map, must provide a correspondence between the procedural part of the decision-making (correlating the national and the European level and the formal part consisting in a formula that weights the elements that the research finds important. This particular manuscript is a work-in-progress as it puts forward the results we have reached so far as part of a post-doctoral research. The work proves valuable as it substantiates the theoretical framework needed for the final part of the research, which will be testing the decision map. Consequently, this research was undertaken by foraying the field literature and challenging the findings on a theoretical level. It must be underlined that the findings are purely speculative and

  2. Decision support for simulation-based operation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Johan; Hörling, Pontus

    2016-05-01

    In this paper, we develop methods for analyzing large amounts of data from a military ground combat simulation system. Through a series of processes, we focus the big data set on situations that correspond to important questions and show advantageous outcomes. The result is a decision support methodology that provides commanders with results that answer specific questions of interest, such as what the consequences for the Blue side are in various Red scenarios or what a particular Blue force can withstand. This approach is a step toward taking the traditional data farming methodology from its analytical view into a prescriptive operation planning context and a decision making mode.

  3. Supporting Building Portfolio Investment and Policy Decision Making through an Integrated Building Utility Data Platform

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aziz, Azizan [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Lasternas, Bertrand [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Alschuler, Elena [US DOE; View Inc; Loftness, Vivian [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Wang, Haopeng [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Mo, Yunjeong [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Wang, Ting [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Zhang, Chenlu [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Sharma, Shilpi [Carnegie Mellon; Stevens, Ivana [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    2016-03-18

    The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act stimulus funding of 2009 for smart grid projects resulted in the tripling of smart meters deployment. In 2012, the Green Button initiative provided utility customers with access to their real-time1 energy usage. The availability of finely granular data provides an enormous potential for energy data analytics and energy benchmarking. The sheer volume of time-series utility data from a large number of buildings also poses challenges in data collection, quality control, and database management for rigorous and meaningful analyses. In this paper, we will describe a building portfolio-level data analytics tool for operational optimization, business investment and policy assessment using 15-minute to monthly intervals utility data. The analytics tool is developed on top of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Standard Energy Efficiency Data (SEED) platform, an open source software application that manages energy performance data of large groups of buildings. To support the significantly large volume of granular interval data, we integrated a parallel time-series database to the existing relational database. The time-series database improves on the current utility data input, focusing on real-time data collection, storage, analytics and data quality control. The fully integrated data platform supports APIs for utility apps development by third party software developers. These apps will provide actionable intelligence for building owners and facilities managers. Unlike a commercial system, this platform is an open source platform funded by the U.S. Government, accessible to the public, researchers and other developers, to support initiatives in reducing building energy consumption.

  4. Improving anti-bullying laws and policies to protect youth from weight-based victimization: parental support for action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puhl, R M; Suh, Y; Li, X

    2017-04-01

    Weight-based bullying is a prevalent problem among youth with overweight and obesity, but remains neglected in existing policy-level strategies to address youth bullying. Parental support is an influential catalyst motivating political will for policy decisions affecting youth, but has received limited research attention. To assess levels of, and predictors of, parental support for school-based policies and state/federal legal measures to address weight-based bullying in 2014 and 2015. Identical online questionnaires were completed by two independent national samples of parents in 2014 and 2015 (N = 1804). Parental support for all policy actions was high (at least 81%) and significantly increased from 2014 to 2015 for legal measures that would a) require state anti-bullying laws to add protections against weight-based bullying, and b) enact a federal anti-bullying law that includes weight-based bullying. These findings can inform policy discourse about remedies for youth bullying, and suggest that parental support for improved legal protections against weight-based bullying is present, consistent, and strong. © 2016 World Obesity Federation.

  5. Computeer-based decision support tools for evaluation of actions affecting flow and water quality in the San Joaquin Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quinn, N.W.T.

    1993-01-01

    This document is a preliminary effort to draw together some of the important simulation models that are available to Reclamation or that have been developed by Reclamation since 1987. This document has also attempted to lay out a framework by which these models might be used both for the purposes for which they were originally intended and to support the analysis of other issues that relate to the hydrology and to salt and water quality management within the San Joaquin Valley. To be successful as components of a larger Decision Support System the models should to be linked together using custom designed interfaces that permit data sharing between models and that are easy to use. Several initiatives are currently underway within Reclamation to develop GIS - based and graphics - based decision support systems to improve the general level of understanding of the models currently in use, to standardize the methodology used in making planning and operations studies and to permit improved data analysis, interpretation and display. The decision support systems should allow greater participation in the planning process, allow the analysis of innovative actions that are currently difficult to study with present models and should lead to better integrated and more comprehensive plans and policy decisions in future years.

  6. Searching for solutions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions by agricultural policy decisions — Application of system dynamics modeling for the case of Latvia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dace, Elina; Muizniece, Indra; Blumberga, Andra; Kaczala, Fabio

    2015-01-01

    European Union (EU) Member States have agreed to limit their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from sectors not covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (non-ETS). That includes also emissions from agricultural sector. Although the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has established a methodology for assessment of GHG emissions from agriculture, the forecasting options are limited, especially when policies and their interaction with the agricultural system are tested. Therefore, an advanced tool, a system dynamics model, was developed that enables assessment of effects various decisions and measures have on agricultural GHG emissions. The model is based on the IPCC guidelines and includes the main elements of an agricultural system, i.e. land management, livestock farming, soil fertilization and crop production, as well as feedback mechanisms between the elements. The case of Latvia is selected for simulations, as agriculture generates 22% of the total anthropogenic GHG emissions in the country. The results demonstrate that there are very limited options for GHG mitigation in the agricultural sector. Thereby, reaching the non-ETS GHG emission targets will be very challenging for Latvia, as the level of agricultural GHG emissions will be exceeded considerably above the target levels. Thus, other non-ETS sectors will have to reduce their emissions drastically to “neutralize” the agricultural sector's emissions for reaching the EU's common ambition to move towards low-carbon economy. The developed model may serve as a decision support tool for impact assessment of various measures and decisions on the agricultural system's GHG emissions. Although the model is applied to the case of Latvia, the elements and structure of the model developed are similar to agricultural systems in many countries. By changing numeric values of certain parameters, the model can be applied to analyze decisions and measures in other countries. - Highlights:

  7. 40 CFR 761.298 - Decisions based on PCB concentration measurements resulting from sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 30 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Decisions based on PCB concentration....61(a)(6) § 761.298 Decisions based on PCB concentration measurements resulting from sampling. (a) For grid samples which are chemically analyzed individually, the PCB concentration applies to the area of...

  8. Cardinal priority ranking based decision making for economic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    To access the indifference band, interaction with the decision maker is obtained via cardinal priority ranking (CPR) of the objectives. The cardinal priority ranking is ... The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated on IEEE 11-bus system which comprises 3-generators. Keywords: Economic emission dispatch; fuzzy ...

  9. Rough set based decision rule generation to find behavioural ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    L Sumalatha

    A data mining approach to predict success of bank telemarketing was done by Sergio [2]. There exist several classification models such as classical Logistic. Regression, Decision Trees and the more recent Neural. Networks and Support Vector Machines for predicting classification tasks [3, 4]. These models perform well ...

  10. Evidence-based decision-making: when it is worthwhile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Neuman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Every day health professionals have to make dozens of decisions regarding patient care and management. It is not easy to integrate scientific evidence in this process. The primary ability we need in order to achieve successful results is learning how to recognize the circumstances in which evidence arising from results of scientific trials may help.

  11. Genes on the menu: facts for knowledge-based decisions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pechan, Paul; Vries, Gert E. de

    2005-01-01

    ... our fundamental knowledge of plants. The knowledge allowed us, in turn, to make much better decisions about which plants to choose and cross with each other in order to introduce useful agronomic traits into new plant varieties. At first, we were just glad to have these useful techniques: suddenly new and elegant possibilities appeared ma...

  12. Rough set based decision rule generation to find behavioural ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    L Sumalatha

    Rough sets; decision rules; classification; reduct; dimensionality reduction. 1. Introduction. For any bank, obtaining deposits is a preliminary function. Obtaining the deposits at lower rate and investing that amount at higher rate helps the bank to survive. The increase of customer deposits and loans granted for the interest.

  13. A Novel Risk-Based Decision Making Paradigm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro eMorgado

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel rodent decision-making task that explores uncertainty, independently of expectation and predictability. Using a 5-hole operating box, adult male Wistar rats were given choices between a small certain (safe food reward and a large uncertain (risk food reward. We found that animals strongly preferred the safe option when it had a fixed position or was cued with a light in a random placement scheme, but had no preference for safe or risk options when the latter were associated with light. Importantly, when the reward was manipulated animals could perceive alterations in the outcome value and biased their choice pattern to the most profitable option. In addition, we found that the D2/D3 agonist quinpirole biased all decisions towards risk in this paradigm. Finally, a c-fos analysis revealed that several brain areas known to be involved in decision-making mechanisms, including the medial prefrontal cortex, the orbitofrontal cortex, the nucleus accumbens and the striatum, were activated by the task. In summary, this paradigm is a useful and highly reliable tool to explore decision-making processes in contexts of uncertainty.

  14. Policies to improve end-of-life decisions in Flemish hospitals: communication, training of health care providers and use of quality assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Haene, Ina; Vander Stichele, Robert H; Pasman, H Roeline W; Noortgate, Nele Van den; Bilsen, Johan; Mortier, Freddy; Deliens, Luc

    2009-12-30

    The prevalence and implementation of institutional end-of-life policies has been comprehensively studied in Flanders, Belgium, a country where euthanasia was legalised in 2002. Developing end-of-life policies in hospitals is a first step towards improving the quality of medical decision-making at the end-of-life. Implementation of policies through quality assessments, communication and the training and education of health care providers is equally important in improving actual end-of-life practice. The aim of the present study is to report on the existence and nature of end-of-life policy implementation activities in Flemish acute hospitals. A cross-sectional mail survey was sent to all acute hospitals (67 main campuses) in Flanders (Belgium). The questionnaire asked about hospital characteristics, the prevalence of policies on five types of end-of-life decisions: euthanasia, palliative sedation, alleviation of symptoms with possible life-shortening effect, do-not-resuscitate decision, and withdrawing or withholding of treatment, the internal and external communication of these policies, training and education on aspects of end-of-life care, and quality assessments of end-of-life care on patient and family level. The response rate was 55%. Results show that in 2007 written policies on most types of end-of-life decisions were widespread in acute hospitals (euthanasia: 97%, do-not-resuscitate decisions: 98%, palliative sedation: 79%). While standard communication of these policies to health care providers was between 71% and 91%, it was much lower to patients and/or family (between 17% and 50%). More than 60% of institutions trained and educated their caregivers in different aspects on end-of-life care. Assessment of the quality of these different aspects at patient and family level occurred in 25% to 61% of these hospitals. Most Flemish acute hospitals have developed a policy on end-of-life practices. However, communication, training and the education of health care

  15. Policies to improve end-of-life decisions in Flemish hospitals: communication, training of health care providers and use of quality assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noortgate Nele

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The prevalence and implementation of institutional end-of-life policies has been comprehensively studied in Flanders, Belgium, a country where euthanasia was legalised in 2002. Developing end-of-life policies in hospitals is a first step towards improving the quality of medical decision-making at the end-of-life. Implementation of policies through quality assessments, communication and the training and education of health care providers is equally important in improving actual end-of-life practice. The aim of the present study is to report on the existence and nature of end-of-life policy implementation activities in Flemish acute hospitals. Methods A cross-sectional mail survey was sent to all acute hospitals (67 main campuses in Flanders (Belgium. The questionnaire asked about hospital characteristics, the prevalence of policies on five types of end-of-life decisions: euthanasia, palliative sedation, alleviation of symptoms with possible life-shortening effect, do-not-resuscitate decision, and withdrawing or withholding of treatment, the internal and external communication of these policies, training and education on aspects of end-of-life care, and quality assessments of end-of-life care on patient and family level. Results The response rate was 55%. Results show that in 2007 written policies on most types of end-of-life decisions were widespread in acute hospitals (euthanasia: 97%, do-not-resuscitate decisions: 98%, palliative sedation: 79%. While standard communication of these policies to health care providers was between 71% and 91%, it was much lower to patients and/or family (between 17% and 50%. More than 60% of institutions trained and educated their caregivers in different aspects on end-of-life care. Assessment of the quality of these different aspects at patient and family level occurred in 25% to 61% of these hospitals. Conclusions Most Flemish acute hospitals have developed a policy on end-of-life practices

  16. What criteria guide national entrepreneurs' policy decisions on user fee removal for maternal health care services? Use of a best-worst scaling choice experiment in West Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torbica, Aleksandra; De Allegri, Manuela; Belemsaga, Danielle; Medina-Lara, Antonieta; Ridde, Valery

    2014-10-01

    Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa have implemented policies to remove or reduce user fees. Our aim was to identify criteria guiding such decisions among national policy entrepreneurs, those who link up problem definition, solution development and political processes. We administered a best-worst scaling (BWS) experiment to 89 policy entrepreneurs, asking them to identify the most and the least important criteria on a series of predefined sets. Sets were compiled using a Balance Incomplete Block Design which generated random combinations of all 11 criteria included in the experiment. In turn, those had emerged from a prior set of focus group discussions organized among policy entrepreneurs. Ordered logit models were used to investigate the value of single criteria as well as heterogeneity of preferences. Political commitment was identified as the most important criterion guiding policy decisions on user fee abolition or reduction to the overall sample, but particularly so for more experienced respondents aged over 50 years. International pressure and donor money were identified as least important while equity and institutional capacity were deemed of relatively little importance. Respondents more involved in advising on policy than on formulating policy rated economic issues such as financial sustainability and cost-effectiveness as less important. It is feasible to apply BWS experiments in low-income countries, although whether the technique can be adjusted to elicit preferences among non-literate respondents in these settings is unclear. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  17. A Grey Interval Relational Degree-Based Dynamic Multiattribute Decision Making Method and Its Application in Investment Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuhong Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to propose a three-dimensional grey interval relational degree model for dynamic Multiattribute decision making. In the model, the observed values are interval grey numbers. Elements are selected in the system as the points in an m-dimensional linear space. Then observation data of each element to different time and objects are as the coordinates of point. An optimization model is employed to obtain each scheme’s affiliate degree for the positive and negative ideal schemes. And a three-dimensional grey interval relational degree model based on time, index, and scheme is constructed in the paper. The result shows that the three-dimensional grey relational degree simplifies the traditional dynamic multiattribute decision making method and can better resolve the dynamic multiattribute decision making problem of interval numbers. The example illustrates that the method presented in the paper can be used to deal with problems of uncertainty such as dynamic multiattribute decision making.

  18. The CFE v. MHSAA Decision: A Case Study of Gender Equity in High School Athletic Scheduling and Policy Ramifications for the WIAA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardo, David B.

    2010-01-01

    The Communities For Equity was a group of Michigan mothers who filed a Title IX discrimination suit against the Michigan High School Athletic Association due to its athletic scheduling practices. The 10-year court battle went all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court. This case study reviewed the policy decisions of the Wisconsin Interscholastic…

  19. The City on a Hill?-U.S. Policy Decisions and the Insurgency in Iraq

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-05-01

    States must bear the weight of this history. From the McMahon Correspondence to the Sykes - Picot Agreement , through the Balfour Declaration and on to...been conducted. The UN Charter builds on the agreement made at Westphalia. It states, that “the organization is based in principle on the sovereign

  20. Data-based decision making put to the test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Scheer, Emmelien

    2016-01-01

    The Dutch government introduced a new educational policy in response to the supposedly declining achievement levels of Dutch students in mathematics and reading comprehension. Schools are required to work in a systematic and goal-oriented way on maximizing the achievement of all students through the

  1. To what extent are Canadian second language policies evidence-based? Reflections on the intersections of research and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummins, Jim

    2014-01-01

    THE PAPER ADDRESSES THE INTERSECTIONS BETWEEN RESEARCH FINDINGS AND CANADIAN EDUCATIONAL POLICIES FOCUSING ON FOUR MAJOR AREAS: (a) core and immersion programs for the teaching of French to Anglophone students, (b) policies concerning the learning of English and French by students from immigrant backgrounds, (c) heritage language teaching, and (d) the education of Deaf and hard-of hearing students. With respect to the teaching of French, policy-makers have largely ignored the fact that most core French programs produce meager results for the vast majority of students. Only a small proportion of students (languages, preferring instead to leave uncorrected the proposition that acquisition of languages such as American Sign Language by young children (with or without cochlear implants) will impede children's language and academic development. The paper reviews the kinds of policies, programs, and practices that could be implemented (at no additional cost) if policy-makers and educators pursued evidence-based educational policies.

  2. To what extent are Canadian second language policies evidence-based? Reflections on the intersections of research and policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummins, Jim

    2014-01-01

    The paper addresses the intersections between research findings and Canadian educational policies focusing on four major areas: (a) core and immersion programs for the teaching of French to Anglophone students, (b) policies concerning the learning of English and French by students from immigrant backgrounds, (c) heritage language teaching, and (d) the education of Deaf and hard-of hearing students. With respect to the teaching of French, policy-makers have largely ignored the fact that most core French programs produce meager results for the vast majority of students. Only a small proportion of students (languages, preferring instead to leave uncorrected the proposition that acquisition of languages such as American Sign Language by young children (with or without cochlear implants) will impede children’s language and academic development. The paper reviews the kinds of policies, programs, and practices that could be implemented (at no additional cost) if policy-makers and educators pursued evidence-based educational policies. PMID:24847289

  3. From Thoughts To Action - Linking Practice, Science, Policy And Decision Making: Dissemination Activities Of The Global Risk Forum, GRF Davos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stal, Marc; Sutter, Corina; Ammann, Walter

    2010-05-01

    The world's growing population in combination with expanding urbanisation, globalisation and climate change has greatly aggravated the risk potential to all communities and nations. These increasing risks imply the intensification of worldwide disasters, hence collaborations and worldwide knowledge exchange to mitigate these negative impacts is mandatory. How can these exchange and collaboration activities take place? The Global Risk Forum, GRF Davos addresses the variety of risks that face communities with a special focus on climate change, natural hazards, environmental degradation as well as technical, biological risks, pandemics and terrorism - all across different political institutions, national and international organisations, countries and business sectors. One of GRF's main goals is to bridge the gap between science and practice and to promote and accelerate the worldwide exchange of know-how and experience. GRF Davos aims at targeting solutions and promoting good practice in integral risk management and climate change adaptation.. The Forum also provides and manages a network for decision-makers, practitioners and experts from politics, government, IGOs, business, science, NGOs, media and the public and works on maintaining and expanding these networks constantly to enable the dissemination of disaster and risk reduction techniques. In order to link practice, science, policy and decision making, GRF Davos has three pillars, the Risk Academy, the International Disaster and Risk Conferences and Workshops (IDRC) as well as the online Platform for Networks. With its pillars, the GRFs aims at reducing vulnerability for all types of risks and disasters to protect life, property, environment, critical infrastructure and all means of business for the worldwide community on a sustainable basis.

  4. Randomness in the network inhibits cooperation based on the bounded rational collective altruistic decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohdaira, Tetsushi

    2014-01-01

    Previous studies discussing cooperation employ the best decision that every player knows all information regarding the payoff matrix and selects the strategy of the highest payoff. Therefore, they do not discuss cooperation based on the altruistic decision with limited information (bounded rational altruistic decision). In addition, they do not cover the case where every player can submit his/her strategy several times in a match of the game. This paper is based on Ohdaira's reconsideration of the bounded rational altruistic decision, and also employs the framework of the prisoner's dilemma game (PDG) with sequential strategy. The distinction between this study and the Ohdaira's reconsideration is that the former covers the model of multiple groups, but the latter deals with the model of only two groups. Ohdaira's reconsideration shows that the bounded rational altruistic decision facilitates much more cooperation in the PDG with sequential strategy than Ohdaira and Terano's bounded rational second-best decision does. However, the detail of cooperation of multiple groups based on the bounded rational altruistic decision has not been resolved yet. This study, therefore, shows how randomness in the network composed of multiple groups affects the increase of the average frequency of mutual cooperation (cooperation between groups) based on the bounded rational altruistic decision of multiple groups. We also discuss the results of the model in comparison with related studies which employ the best decision. (paper)

  5. Conflict or Cooperation Over Global Warming Policy? AN Analysis Based on the Interaction of Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ihara, Daniel Michael

    Response to climatic change due to global warming, rather than being the common response of humankind to a common problem, may well be the product of decisions made by countries with diverse and possibly divergent interests. This dissertation analyzes the interactions of countries with diverse interests. Each country's economic production is assumed to increase at a decreasing rate with respect to the country's own fossil fuel use and the country's climatic damage is assumed to increase at an increasing rate with respect to the sum of all countries' fossil fuel uses. Each country is assumed to seek to maximize its production minus its climatic damage. The analysis begins with a one-period, two-country case with a single fossil fuel and without binding agreements, without side-payments between countries, and without prior history of fossil fuel use. The cases implied by relaxing restrictions are then analyzed. The dissertation shows explictly how countries' global warming policy decisions could define a prisoners' dilemma game. It characterizes "cooperative" outcomes such as the Nash bargaining solution and Coasean bargaining. The dissertation compares non-side-payment outcomes with the side-payment outcomes implied by tradeable carbon emission quotas. In addition to qualitative results, the dissertation has the following quantitative analysis. First, it conducts a two-country simulation of a tradeable emission quota agreement. The simulation illustrates a case where reduction in carbon emissions, even with significant increase in world population, results in economic growth and manageable climatic damage. Second, based on World Resource Institute data on carbon emissions, carbon elasticities of GNP are estimated for 138 countries. The small estimated elasticities suggest that economic growth may not be greatly reduced by restricting fossil fuel use and that economic growth may depend primarily on non-fossil fuel factors. Overall, the dissertation creates a

  6. Optimal Channel Selection Based on Online Decision and Offline Learning in Multichannel Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mu Qiao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a channel selection strategy with hybrid architecture, which combines the centralized method and the distributed method to alleviate the overhead of access point and at the same time provide more flexibility in network deployment. By this architecture, we make use of game theory and reinforcement learning to fulfill the optimal channel selection under different communication scenarios. Particularly, when the network can satisfy the requirements of energy and computational costs, the online decision algorithm based on noncooperative game can help each individual sensor node immediately select the optimal channel. Alternatively, when the network cannot satisfy the requirements of energy and computational costs, the offline learning algorithm based on reinforcement learning can help each individual sensor node to learn from its experience and iteratively adjust its behavior toward the expected target. Extensive simulation results validate the effectiveness of our proposal and also prove that higher system throughput can be achieved by our channel selection strategy over the conventional off-policy channel selection approaches.

  7. Decision - making of Direct Customers Based on Available Transfer Capability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quan, Tang; Zhaohang, Lin; Huaqiang, Li

    2017-05-01

    Large customer direct-power-purchasing is a hot spot in the electricity market reform. In this paper, the author established an Available Transfer Capability (ATC) model which takes uncertain factors into account, applied the model into large customer direct-power-purchasing transactions and improved the reliability of power supply during direct-power-purchasing by introducing insurance theory. The author also considered the customers loss suffered from power interruption when building ATC model, established large customer decision model, took purchasing quantity of power from different power plants and reserved capacity insurance as variables, targeted minimum power interruption loss as optimization goal and best solution by means of particle swarm algorithm to produce optimal power purchasing decision of large consumers. Simulation was made through IEEE57 system finally and proved that such method is effective.

  8. Application of a diagnosis-based clinical decision guide in patients with neck pain

    OpenAIRE

    Murphy, Donald R; Hurwitz, Eric L

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background Neck pain (NP) is a common cause of disability. Accurate and efficacious methods of diagnosis and treatment have been elusive. A diagnosis-based clinical decision guide (DBCDG; previously referred to as a diagnosis-based clinical decision rule) has been proposed which attempts to provide the clinician with a systematic, evidence-based guide in applying the biopsychosocial model of care. The approach is based on three questions of diagnosis. The purpose of this study is to ...

  9. Application of a diagnosis-based clinical decision guide in patients with low back pain

    OpenAIRE

    Murphy, Donald R; Hurwitz, Eric L

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background Low back pain (LBP) is common and costly. Development of accurate and efficacious methods of diagnosis and treatment has been identified as a research priority. A diagnosis-based clinical decision guide (DBCDG; previously referred to as a diagnosis-based clinical decision rule) has been proposed which attempts to provide the clinician with a systematic, evidence-based means to apply the biopsychosocial model of care. The approach is based on three questions of diagnosis. T...

  10. The neural bases underlying social risk perception in purchase decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokoyama, Ryoichi; Nozawa, Takayuki; Sugiura, Motoaki; Yomogida, Yukihito; Takeuchi, Hikaru; Akimoto, Yoritaka; Shibuya, Satoru; Kawashima, Ryuta

    2014-05-01

    Social considerations significantly influence daily purchase decisions, and the perception of social risk (i.e., the anticipated disapproval of others) is crucial in dissuading consumers from making purchases. However, the neural basis for consumers' perception of social risk remains undiscovered, and this novel study clarifies the relevant neural processes. A total of 26 volunteers were scanned while they evaluated purchase intention of products (purchase intention task) and their anticipation of others' disapproval for possessing a product (social risk task), using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The fMRI data from the purchase intention task was used to identify the brain region associated with perception of social risk during purchase decision making by using subjective social risk ratings for a parametric modulation analysis. Furthermore, we aimed to explore if there was a difference between participants' purchase decisions and their explicit evaluations of social risk, with reference to the neural activity associated with social risk perception. For this, subjective social risk ratings were used for a parametric modulation analysis on fMRI data from the social risk task. Analysis of the purchase intention task revealed a significant positive correlation between ratings of social risk and activity in the anterior insula, an area of the brain that is known as part of the emotion-related network. Analysis of the social risk task revealed a significant positive correlation between ratings of social risk and activity in the temporal parietal junction and the medial prefrontal cortex, which are known as theory-of-mind regions. Our results suggest that the anterior insula processes consumers' social risk implicitly to prompt consumers not to buy socially unacceptable products, whereas ToM-related regions process such risk explicitly in considering the anticipated disapproval of others. These findings may prove helpful in understanding the mental

  11. Applications of decision theory to computer-based adaptive instructional systems

    OpenAIRE

    Vos, Hendrik J.

    1988-01-01

    This paper considers applications of decision theory to the problem of instructional decision-making in computer-based adaptive instructional systems, using the Minnesota Adaptive Instructional System (MAIS) as an example. The first section indicates how the problem of selecting the appropriate amount of instruction in MAIS can be situated within the general framework of empirical Bayesian decision theory. The linear loss model and the classical test model are discussed in this context. The s...

  12. Constitutionally-Legal Policy as Base Type of Legal Policy of Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anichkin, Eugene S.

    2016-01-01

    The article deals with reasons for formation, nature and specifics of the constitutionally legal policy of modern Russia. The special attention is spared to the exposure of the aim, long-term and short-term tasks, and principles of national constitutionally legal policy. The functions of constitutionally legal policy are separately considered:…

  13. Black Box Traceable Ciphertext Policy Attribute-Based Encryption Scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xingbing Fu

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In the existing attribute-based encryption (ABE scheme, the authority (i.e., private key generator (PKG is able to calculate and issue any user’s private key, which makes it completely trusted, which severely influences the applications of the ABE scheme. To mitigate this problem, we propose the black box traceable ciphertext policy attribute-based encryption (T-CP-ABE scheme in which if the PKG re-distributes the users’ private keys for malicious uses, it might be caught and sued. We provide a construction to realize the T-CP-ABE scheme in a black box model. Our scheme is based on the decisional bilinear Diffie-Hellman (DBDH assumption in the standard model. In our scheme, we employ a pair (ID, S to identify a user, where ID denotes the identity of a user and S denotes the attribute set associated with her.

  14. Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bendure, A.O.

    1995-03-01

    Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making is as much of a challenge as properly using the tool once it has been selected. Failure to consider customer and stakeholder requirements and the technical bases and differences in risk-based decision making tools will produce confounding and/or politically unacceptable results when the tool is used. Selecting a risk-based decisionmaking tool must therefore be undertaken with the same, if not greater, rigor than the use of the tool once it is selected. This paper presents a process for selecting a risk-based tool appropriate to a set of prioritization or resource allocation tasks, discusses the results of applying the process to four risk-based decision-making tools, and identifies the ``musts`` for successful selection and implementation of a risk-based tool to aid in decision making.

  15. Policy and science of FMD control: the stakeholders' contribution to decision making. A call for integrated animal disease management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, M; Roger, P

    Effective control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD)--prevention, surveillance and response--requires integrated animal disease management as a cooperative effort between stakeholders, scientists and decision makers, at all levels: local, national, regional and international. This paper suggests a process and outlines specific critical issues that need to be addressed in order to best use the science and technology that is available now and to develop new technologies that will lead to significant improvements. The overall objective is not to allow the disease or the disease control measures to damage, violate or destroy public health, the environment, or the economy, or to allow politics to drive disease control policies at the expense of the ethical relationship between man and animals. Critical issues of prevention, surveillance and response policies are examined, and specific recommendations are made to reduce the risk or effect of natural and deliberate introductions. For prevention: a) rapid portable diagnostics and provision of vaccines to control and eradicate the reservoirs of disease. b) alerts, leading to increased controls at borders, animal movement restrictions and biosecurity on farms. For surveillance: a) reporting of unusual symptoms, rapid diagnostics and identification of patterns. b) enhanced role of geographic information systems (GIS) linked to an IT system. c) collection, storage and sharing of disease information. For response policies: a) the role and implementation of stamping out and of vaccination. b) simulation exercises with stakeholder participation. For all aspects of FMD control, consideration should be given to: a) the composition, responsibilities and role of the balanced, permanently operational Expert Group in EU member states as specified in the EU FMD Directive. b) establishment of a balanced, permanently operational European Expert Group. c) establishment of both a European and an International FMD Task Force. Stakeholders need

  16. Rosneft, Gazprom and the Government: the Decision-Making Triangle on Russia's Energy Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baev, Pavel

    2014-03-01

    Russia finds itself exposed to many risks in the fast-moving global revolution in energy affairs, and cannot avail of its opportunities despite its unique combination of natural resources and experience in their exploitation. It has entered the phase of economic stagnation, and the under-performance of the energy sector is one of the key determinants of the durability of this trend. Energy export can no longer be wielded as a heavy-impact instrument of foreign policy, and the squabbles for shrinking oil and gas revenues form a key driver of the evolving crisis of the petro-authoritarian regime built by President Vladimir Putin. Escalating problems in the Russian energy sector are caused by the system of decision-making on oil and gas matters, in which Putin acts as a supreme arbiter in the flexible triangle formed by the government and two super-large state companies-Gazprom and Rosneft. It is the imperative of checking the decline of budget revenues that determines the priority in government policy of greater confiscation of profits and heavier taxation of the energy business. This squeeze on the interests of energy 'oligarchs' provokes them to appeal to Putin for tax breaks, which he is increasingly reluctant to grant, given the need to pursue an active social policy. The constant flow of insoluble issues makes Putin irritable and generally less engaged with the energy business than he used to be. Gazprom's notorious inefficiency in its core business emboldens competitors to capture greater shares of the domestic market and to demand exemptions from its export monopoly. Putin is loath to carry this political liability but remains reluctant to contemplate reforms that would amount to un-bundling of this conglomerate. Rosneft under the control of Igor Sechin has become the champion of the Russian oil industry, executing a series of acquisitions and signing a series of deals with Western 'majors'. Putin's benevolence is the key to the

  17. [National health policies and local decisions in Mexico: the case of an intercultural hospital in Cuetzalan, Puebla].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte-Gómez, María Beatriz; Brachet-Márquez, Viviane; Campos-Navarro, Roberto; Nigenda, Gustavo

    2004-01-01

    To identify the changes brought about by various national and international factors in an intercultural hospital of the municipality of Cuetzalán, Puebla. A case study was conducted during 2000 and 2001 in two Intercultural Hospitals of Mexico; the Cuetzalán Hospital in Puebla and the Jesús María Hospital in Nayarit State. Data were collected by means of 72 semi-structured interviews with allopathic therapists, indigenous therapists, and authorities of the different health care levels. Moreover, documental research was carried out on national policies for indigenous peoples as well as on indigenist policies. These policies were related with the five organizational stages of the hospital. State authorities gave their permission and interviewees signed informed consent. The hospital was created in 1958 by the Ministry of Health as a biomedical institution, in agreement with the integrationist indigenist policies going on at the time. It remained so during the beginning of the administration by the National Indigenist Institute. In 1990, the new participative indigenist policy trends and the creativity and sensitivity of some authorities, under the influence of international strategies, helped to transform the hospital into an Intercultural Hospital (offering both types of medicine, indigenous and allopathic) with regional coverage. In 2000, the devolution of the hospital to the State Ministry of Health, based on financial rather than socio-cultural considerations, caused the temporary loss of its intercultural character. The last stage as an Integral Hospital with Traditional Medicine (from 2003 onwards) was due to a combination of state official initiatives and the new political stance acquired by the Mexican indigenous movement. The hospital is now part of a regional project of five such hospitals officially denominated Integral Hospitals with Traditional Medicine, to be financed by the Puebla-Panama Plan of regional development. Our results confirmed that

  18. CorRECTreatment: a web-based decision support tool for rectal cancer treatment that uses the analytic hierarchy process and decision tree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suner, A; Karakülah, G; Dicle, O; Sökmen, S; Çelikoğlu, C C

    2015-01-01

    The selection of appropriate rectal cancer treatment is a complex multi-criteria decision making process, in which clinical decision support systems might be used to assist and enrich physicians' decision making. The objective of the study was to develop a web-based clinical decision support tool for physicians in the selection of potentially beneficial treatment options for patients with rectal cancer. The updated decision model contained 8 and 10 criteria in the first and second steps respectively. The decision support model, developed in our previous study by combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method which determines the priority of criteria and decision tree that formed using these priorities, was updated and applied to 388 patients data collected retrospectively. Later, a web-based decision support tool named corRECTreatment was developed. The compatibility of the treatment recommendations by the expert opinion and the decision support tool was examined for its consistency. Two surgeons were requested to recommend a treatment and an overall survival value for the treatment among 20 different cases that we selected and turned into a scenario among the most common and rare treatment options in the patient data set. In the AHP analyses of the criteria, it was found that the matrices, generated for both decision steps, were consistent (consistency ratiodecisions of experts, the consistency value for the most frequent cases was found to be 80% for the first decision step and 100% for the second decision step. Similarly, for rare cases consistency was 50% for the first decision step and 80% for the second decision step. The decision model and corRECTreatment, developed by applying these on real patient data, are expected to provide potential users with decision support in rectal cancer treatment processes and facilitate them in making projections about treatment options.

  19. Product environmental footprint in policy and market decisions: Applicability and impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Annekatrin; Bach, Vanessa; Finkbeiner, Matthias

    2015-07-01

    In April 2013, the European Commission published the Product and Organisation Environmental Footprint (PEF/OEF) methodology--a life cycle-based multicriteria measure of the environmental performance of products, services, and organizations. With its approach of "comparability over flexibility," the PEF/OEF methodology aims at harmonizing existing methods, while decreasing the flexibility provided by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) standards regarding methodological choices. Currently, a 3-y pilot phase is running, aiming at testing the methodology and developing product category and organization sector rules (PEFCR/OEFSR). Although a harmonized method is in theory a good idea, the PEF/OEF methodology presents challenges, including a risk of confusion and limitations in applicability to practice. The paper discusses the main differences between the PEF and ISO methodologies and highlights challenges regarding PEF applicability, with a focus on impact assessment. Some methodological aspects of the PEF and PEFCR Guides are found to contradict the ISO 14044 (2006) and ISO 14025 (2006). Others, such as prohibition of inventory cutoffs, are impractical. The evaluation of the impact assessment methods proposed in the PEF/OEF Guide showed that the predefined methods for water consumption, land use, and abiotic resources are not adequate because of modeling artefacts, missing inventory data, or incomplete characterization factors. However, the methods for global warming and ozone depletion perform very well. The results of this study are relevant for the PEF (and OEF) pilot phase, which aims at testing the PEF (OEF) methodology (and potentially adapting it) as well as addressing challenges and coping with them. © 2015 SETAC.

  20. Teaching advance care planning to medical students with a computer-based decision aid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Michael J; Levi, Benjamin H

    2011-03-01

    Discussing end-of-life decisions with cancer patients is a crucial skill for physicians. This article reports findings from a pilot study evaluating the effectiveness of a computer-based decision aid for teaching medical students about advance care planning. Second-year medical students at a single medical school were randomized to use a standard advance directive or a computer-based decision aid to help patients with advance care planning. Students' knowledge, skills, and satisfaction were measured by self-report; their performance was rated by patients. 121/133 (91%) of students participated. The Decision-Aid Group (n = 60) outperformed the Standard Group (n = 61) in terms of students' knowledge (p satisfaction with their learning experience (p student performance. Use of a computer-based decision aid may be an effective way to teach medical students how to discuss advance care planning with cancer patients.