WorldWideScience

Sample records for policy decisions based

  1. Optimal policy for value-based decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tajima, Satohiro; Drugowitsch, Jan; Pouget, Alexandre

    2016-08-18

    For decades now, normative theories of perceptual decisions, and their implementation as drift diffusion models, have driven and significantly improved our understanding of human and animal behaviour and the underlying neural processes. While similar processes seem to govern value-based decisions, we still lack the theoretical understanding of why this ought to be the case. Here, we show that, similar to perceptual decisions, drift diffusion models implement the optimal strategy for value-based decisions. Such optimal decisions require the models' decision boundaries to collapse over time, and to depend on the a priori knowledge about reward contingencies. Diffusion models only implement the optimal strategy under specific task assumptions, and cease to be optimal once we start relaxing these assumptions, by, for example, using non-linear utility functions. Our findings thus provide the much-needed theory for value-based decisions, explain the apparent similarity to perceptual decisions, and predict conditions under which this similarity should break down.

  2. Rationality versus reality: the challenges of evidence-based decision making for health policy makers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaughey, Deirdre; Bruning, Nealia S

    2010-05-26

    Current healthcare systems have extended the evidence-based medicine (EBM) approach to health policy and delivery decisions, such as access-to-care, healthcare funding and health program continuance, through attempts to integrate valid and reliable evidence into the decision making process. These policy decisions have major impacts on society and have high personal and financial costs associated with those decisions. Decision models such as these function under a shared assumption of rational choice and utility maximization in the decision-making process. We contend that health policy decision makers are generally unable to attain the basic goals of evidence-based decision making (EBDM) and evidence-based policy making (EBPM) because humans make decisions with their naturally limited, faulty, and biased decision-making processes. A cognitive information processing framework is presented to support this argument, and subtle cognitive processing mechanisms are introduced to support the focal thesis: health policy makers' decisions are influenced by the subjective manner in which they individually process decision-relevant information rather than on the objective merits of the evidence alone. As such, subsequent health policy decisions do not necessarily achieve the goals of evidence-based policy making, such as maximizing health outcomes for society based on valid and reliable research evidence. In this era of increasing adoption of evidence-based healthcare models, the rational choice, utility maximizing assumptions in EBDM and EBPM, must be critically evaluated to ensure effective and high-quality health policy decisions. The cognitive information processing framework presented here will aid health policy decision makers by identifying how their decisions might be subtly influenced by non-rational factors. In this paper, we identify some of the biases and potential intervention points and provide some initial suggestions about how the EBDM/EBPM process can be

  3. Rationality versus reality: the challenges of evidence-based decision making for health policy makers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruning Nealia S

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Current healthcare systems have extended the evidence-based medicine (EBM approach to health policy and delivery decisions, such as access-to-care, healthcare funding and health program continuance, through attempts to integrate valid and reliable evidence into the decision making process. These policy decisions have major impacts on society and have high personal and financial costs associated with those decisions. Decision models such as these function under a shared assumption of rational choice and utility maximization in the decision-making process. Discussion We contend that health policy decision makers are generally unable to attain the basic goals of evidence-based decision making (EBDM and evidence-based policy making (EBPM because humans make decisions with their naturally limited, faulty, and biased decision-making processes. A cognitive information processing framework is presented to support this argument, and subtle cognitive processing mechanisms are introduced to support the focal thesis: health policy makers' decisions are influenced by the subjective manner in which they individually process decision-relevant information rather than on the objective merits of the evidence alone. As such, subsequent health policy decisions do not necessarily achieve the goals of evidence-based policy making, such as maximizing health outcomes for society based on valid and reliable research evidence. Summary In this era of increasing adoption of evidence-based healthcare models, the rational choice, utility maximizing assumptions in EBDM and EBPM, must be critically evaluated to ensure effective and high-quality health policy decisions. The cognitive information processing framework presented here will aid health policy decision makers by identifying how their decisions might be subtly influenced by non-rational factors. In this paper, we identify some of the biases and potential intervention points and provide some initial

  4. Rationality versus reality: the challenges of evidence-based decision making for health policy makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Background Current healthcare systems have extended the evidence-based medicine (EBM) approach to health policy and delivery decisions, such as access-to-care, healthcare funding and health program continuance, through attempts to integrate valid and reliable evidence into the decision making process. These policy decisions have major impacts on society and have high personal and financial costs associated with those decisions. Decision models such as these function under a shared assumption of rational choice and utility maximization in the decision-making process. Discussion We contend that health policy decision makers are generally unable to attain the basic goals of evidence-based decision making (EBDM) and evidence-based policy making (EBPM) because humans make decisions with their naturally limited, faulty, and biased decision-making processes. A cognitive information processing framework is presented to support this argument, and subtle cognitive processing mechanisms are introduced to support the focal thesis: health policy makers' decisions are influenced by the subjective manner in which they individually process decision-relevant information rather than on the objective merits of the evidence alone. As such, subsequent health policy decisions do not necessarily achieve the goals of evidence-based policy making, such as maximizing health outcomes for society based on valid and reliable research evidence. Summary In this era of increasing adoption of evidence-based healthcare models, the rational choice, utility maximizing assumptions in EBDM and EBPM, must be critically evaluated to ensure effective and high-quality health policy decisions. The cognitive information processing framework presented here will aid health policy decision makers by identifying how their decisions might be subtly influenced by non-rational factors. In this paper, we identify some of the biases and potential intervention points and provide some initial suggestions about how the

  5. Improving societal acceptance of rad waste management policy decisions: an approach based on complex intelligence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, Suman

    2008-01-01

    In today's context elaborate public participation exercises are conducted around the world to elicit and incorporate societal risk perceptions into nuclear policy Decision-Making. However, on many occasions, such as in the case of rad waste management, the society remains unconvinced about these decisions. This naturally leads to the questions: are techniques for incorporating societal risk perceptions into the rad waste policy decision making processes sufficiently mature? How could societal risk perceptions and legal normative principles be better integrated in order to render the decisions more equitable and convincing to society? Based on guidance from socio-psychological research this paper postulates that a critical factor for gaining/improving societal acceptance is the quality and adequacy of criteria for option evaluation that are used in the policy decision making. After surveying three rad waste public participation cases, the paper identifies key lacunae in criteria abstraction processes as currently practiced. A new policy decision support model CIRDA: Complex Intelligent Risk Discourse Abstraction model that is based on the heuristic of Risk-Risk Analysis is proposed to overcome these lacunae. CIRDA's functionality of rad waste policy decision making is modelled as a policy decision-making Abstract Intelligent Agent and the agent program/abstraction mappings are presented. CIRDA is then applied to a live (U.K.) rad waste management case and the advantages of this method as compared to the Value Tree Method as practiced in the GB case are demonstrated. (author)

  6. Data-Based Decision Making at the Policy, Research, and Practice Levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schildkamp, Kim; Ebbeler, J.

    2015-01-01

    Data-based decision making (DBDM) can lead to school improvement. However, schools struggle with the implementation of DBDM. In this symposium, we will discuss research and the implementation of DBDM at the national and regional policy level and the classroom level. We will discuss policy issues

  7. CEOS Contributions to Informing Energy Management and Policy Decision Making Using Space-Based Earth Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckman, Richard S.

    2009-01-01

    Earth observations are playing an increasingly significant role in informing decision making in the energy sector. In renewable energy applications, space-based observations now routinely augment sparse ground-based observations used as input for renewable energy resource assessment applications. As one of the nine Group on Earth Observations (GEO) societal benefit areas, the enhancement of management and policy decision making in the energy sector is receiving attention in activities conducted by the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). CEOS has become the "space arm" for the implementation of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) vision. It is directly supporting the space-based, near-term tasks articulated in the GEO three-year work plan. This paper describes a coordinated program of demonstration projects conducted by CEOS member agencies and partners to utilize Earth observations to enhance energy management end-user decision support systems. I discuss the importance of engagement with stakeholders and understanding their decision support needs in successfully increasing the uptake of Earth observation products for societal benefit. Several case studies are presented, demonstrating the importance of providing data sets in formats and units familiar and immediately usable by decision makers. These projects show the utility of Earth observations to enhance renewable energy resource assessment in the developing world, forecast space-weather impacts on the power grid, and improve energy efficiency in the built environment.

  8. CEOS contributions to informing energy management and policy decision making using space-based Earth observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eckman, Richard S.; Stackhouse, Paul W.

    2012-01-01

    Earth observations are playing an increasingly significant role in informing decision making in the energy sector. In renewable energy applications, space-based observations now routinely augment sparse ground-based observations used as input for renewable energy resource assessment applications. As one of the nine Group on Earth Observations (GEO) societal benefit areas, the enhancement of management and policy decision making in the energy sector is receiving attention in activities conducted by the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). CEOS has become the “space arm” for the implementation of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) vision. It is directly supporting the space-based, near-term tasks articulated in the GEO three-year work plan. This paper describes a coordinated program of demonstration projects conducted by CEOS member agencies and partners to utilize Earth observations to enhance energy management end-user decision support systems. We discuss the importance of engagement with stakeholders and understanding their decision support needs in successfully increasing the uptake of Earth observation products for societal benefit. Several case studies are presented, demonstrating the importance of providing data sets in formats and units familiar and immediately usable by decision makers. These projects show the utility of Earth observations to enhance renewable energy resource assessment in the developing world, forecast space weather impacts on the power grid, and improve energy efficiency in the built environment.

  9. Including values in evidence-based policy making for breast screening: An empirically grounded tool to assist expert decision makers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Lisa

    2017-07-01

    Values are an important part of evidence-based decision making for health policy: they guide the type of evidence that is collected, how it is interpreted, and how important the conclusions are considered to be. Experts in breast screening (including clinicians, researchers, consumer advocates and senior administrators) hold differing values in relation to what is important in breast screening policy and practice, and committees may find it difficult to incorporate the complexity and variety of values into policy decisions. The decision making tool provided here is intended to assist with this process. The tool is modified from more general frameworks that are intended to assist with ethical decision making in public health, and informed by data drawn from previous empirical studies on values amongst Australian breast screening experts. It provides a structured format for breast screening committees to consider and discuss the values of themselves and others, suggests relevant topics for further inquiry and highlights areas of need for future research into the values of the public. It enables committees to publicly explain and justify their decisions with reference to values, improving transparency and accountability. It is intended to act alongside practices that seek to accommodate the values of individual women in the informed decision making process for personal decision making about participation in breast screening. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Behavioral decisions and policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalton, P.S.; Ghosal, S.

    2011-01-01

    We study the public policy implications of a model in which agents do not fully internalize all the conscequences of their actions. Such a model unifies seemingly disconected models with behavioral agents. We evaluate the scope of paternalistic and libertarian-parternalistic policies in light of our

  11. Behavioral Decisions and Policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalton, P.S.; Ghosal, S.

    2010-01-01

    We study the public policy implications of a model in which agents do not fully internalize all the conscequences of their actions. Such a model uni es seemingly disconected models with behavioral agents. We evaluate the scope of paternalistic and libertarian-parternalistic policies in the light of

  12. Multicriteria-based decision aiding technique for assessing energy policy elements-demonstration to a case in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahman, Md. Mizanur; Paatero, Jukka V.; Lahdelma, Risto; Wahid, Mazlan A.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A multicriteria technique for assessing energy policy elements has been proposed. • Energy policy elements have been examined based on assigned criteria. • This assessment gives results which are representative of all stakeholders. • Policy elements which are chosen by this method promote sustainability. - Abstract: The adverse environmental consequences and diminishing trend of fossil fuel reserves indicate a serious need for vibrant and judicious energy policy. Energy policy involves a number of stakeholders, and needs to incorporate the interests and requirements of all the key stakeholder groups. This paper presents a methodological technique to assist with formulating, evaluating, and promoting the energy policy of a country in a transparent and representative way with clear scientific justifications and balanced assessments. The multicriteria decision analysis approach has been a widely used technique for evaluating different alternatives based on the interests of a multitude of stakeholders, and goals. This paper utilizes the SMAA (Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis) tool, which can evaluate different alternatives by incorporating multiple criteria, in order to examine the preferences of different policy elements. We further extend this technique by incorporating the LEAP model (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system) to assess the emission impacts of different policy elements. We demonstrate the application of this evaluation technique by an analysis of four hypothetical policy elements namely Business-as usual (BAU), Renewables (REN), Renewable-biomass only (REN-b), and Energy conservation and efficient technologies (ECET). These are applied to the case of sharing fuel sources for power generation for the Bangladesh power sector. We found that the REN-b and REN policy elements were the best and second best alternatives with 41% and 32% acceptability respectively. This technique gives transparent information for

  13. Policy issues arising from the judgmental nature of risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mcquaid, J.

    1998-01-01

    The regulation of risks is pervaded by the need to exercise judgement. The scientific basis for characterising risk problems and judging the effectiveness of possible controls is often uncertain, lacking information and understanding of the processes involved. However, the risk management measures adopted will not be determined by science alone, but must reflect sociological, economic, ethical and political considerations. These in turn are in themselves judgmental, informed to a greater or lesser extent by empirical evidence and influenced by the prevailing climate of public opinion. The overall process provides a rich source of confusion for the public as to the status of the eventual policy decision, with important implications for the manner in which the process of communication is managed. The important role of judgement, as distinct from formal analysis, at every stage needs to be reflected in risk communication. The engagement of those who bear the risks, and of other interested parties in the exercise of judgement must be tailored to nature of the judgement and to the decision to be made. Appropriate procedures need to be adopted to enable that engagement. Although the issue has come into particular prominence in recent years, it is not a new phenomenon. The presentation will describe the arrangements that have been developed in the UK over the past 25 years, and will be illustrated by some specific examples of risk decision making on issues of high public concern. (author)

  14. Decision support in vaccination policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piso, B; Wild, C

    2009-10-09

    Looking across boarders reveals that the national immunization programs of various countries differ in their vaccination schedules and decisions regarding the implementation and funding of new vaccines. The aim of this review is to identify decision aids and crucial criteria for a rational decision-making process on vaccine introduction and to develop a theoretical framework for decision-making based on available literature. Systematic literature search supplemented by hand-search. We identified five published decision aids for vaccine introduction and program planning in industrialized countries. Their comparison revealed an overall similarity with some differences in the approach as well as criteria. Burden of disease and vaccine characteristics play a key role in all decision aids, but authors vary in their views on the significance of cost-effectiveness analyses. Other relevant factors that should be considered before vaccine introduction are discussed to highly differing extents. These factors include the immunization program itself as well as its conformity with other programs, its feasibility, acceptability, and equity, as well as ethical, legal and political considerations. Assuming that the most comprehensive framework possible will not provide a feasible tool for decision-makers, we suggest a stepwise procedure. Though even the best rational approach and most comprehensive evaluation is limited by remaining uncertainties, frameworks provide at least a structured approach to evaluate the various aspects of vaccine implementation decision-making. This process is essential in making consistently sound decisions and will facilitate the public's confidence in the decision and its realization.

  15. Technical bases for OCRWM's [Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management] policy decisions on international safeguards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sprecher, W.M.

    1989-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to discuss the technical factors that contributed to the formulation of the international safeguards policy enunciated in September 1988 by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), which is the federal organization responsible for the implementation of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, as amended

  16. Workshop: Community Based Environmental Decision Making, Proceedings of the Fifth Workshop in the Environmental Policy and Economics Workshop Series (2000)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proceedings from a one-day workshop cosponsored by US EPA Office of Economy and Environment and National Center for Environmental Research and the National Science Foundation Decision, Risk,and Management Science Program on community-based decision making

  17. The use of decision analytic techniques in energy policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Seppaelaeinen, T.O.

    1986-08-01

    The report reviews decision analytic techniques and their applications to energy policy decision making. Decision analysis consists in techniques for structuring the essential elements of a decision problem and mathematical methods for ranking the alternatives from a set of simple judgments. Because modeling subjective judgments is characteristic of decision analysis, the models can incorporate qualitative factors and values, which escape traditional energy modeling. Decision analysis has been applied to choices among energy supply alternatives, siting energy facilities, selecting nuclear waste repositories, selecting research and development projects, risk analysis and prioritizing alternative energy futures. Many applications are done in universities and research institutions, but during the 70's the use of decision analysis has spread both to the public and the private sector. The settings where decision analysis has been applied range from aiding a single decision maker to clarifying opposing points of view. Decision analytic methods have also been linked with energy models. The most valuable result of decision analysis is the clarification of the problem at hand. Political decisions cannot be made solely on the basis of models, but models can be used to gain insight of the decision situation. Models inevitably simplify reality, so they must be regarded only as aids to judgment. So far there has been only one decision analysis of energy policy issues in Finland with actual political decision makers as participants. The experiences of this project and numerous foreign applications do however suggest that the decision analytic approach is useful in energy policy questions. The report presents a number of Finnish energy policy decisions where decision analysis might prove useful. However, the applicability of the methods depends crucially on the actual circumstances at hand

  18. Dissolving decision making? : Models and their roles in decision-making processes and policy at large

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, S.

    2014-01-01

    This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making.

  19. Decision Strategy Research: Policy Support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardeman, F.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategy research are (1) to support and advise the Belgian authorities on specific problems concerning existing and potential hazards from exposure to ionising radiation, both in normal and emergency situations; (2) to perform research on relevant topics that might have an important impact on decision making related to nuclear applications, including social and economic sciences. Main achievements in this area in 1999 are described

  20. Provincial prenatal record revision: a multiple case study of evidence-based decision-making at the population-policy level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olson Joanne

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is a significant gap in the knowledge translation literature related to how research evidence actually contributes to health care decision-making. Decisions around what care to provide at the population (rather than individual level are particularly complex, involving considerations such as feasibility, cost, and population needs in addition to scientific evidence. One example of decision-making at this "population-policy" level involves what screening questions and intervention guides to include on standardized provincial prenatal records. As mandatory medical reporting forms, prenatal records are potentially powerful vehicles for promoting population-wide evidence-based care. However, the extent to which Canadian prenatal records reflect best-practice recommendations for the assessment of well-known risk factors such as maternal smoking and alcohol consumption varies markedly across Canadian provinces and territories. The goal of this study is to better understand the interaction of contextual factors and research evidence on decision-making at the population-policy level, by examining the processes by which provincial prenatal records are reviewed and revised. Methods Guided by Dobrow et al.'s (2004 conceptual model for context-based evidence-based decision-making, this study will use a multiple case study design with embedded units of analysis to examine contextual factors influencing the prenatal record revision process in different Canadian provinces and territories. Data will be collected using multiple methods to construct detailed case descriptions for each province/territory. Using qualitative data analysis techniques, decision-making processes involving prenatal record content specifically related to maternal smoking and alcohol use will be compared both within and across each case, to identify key contextual factors influencing the uptake and application of research evidence by prenatal record review

  1. Women as decision and policy makers. Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1995-09-01

    The focus of this news brief is on the Community-based Sustainable Family Planning/Maternal and Child Health (FP/MCH) Project promoted in Bangladesh, Laos, Nepal, and the Philippines. The project emphasizes women's involvement as policy makers and evaluators. The aim is to involve women at all project levels as part of an effort to correct gender imbalances. Programs are being directed toward sustainability. Women are placed in positions at each level of the tiered system of steering committees, which range from local village committees to central committees. Men may still retain the top positions, but women are given decision making power at the highest levels of policy and program development and implementation. The Asia region is challenged by quality of care issues related to reproductive health services. Program expansion is proceeding into rural areas with outreach services and fee charging. Projects are community-based, which means mobilization of community people. The community approach is suitable to an Asian culture that does not adhere to strict rules of privacy. Women's groups are eager to discuss sensitive issues such as contraception and to offer personal experiences and solutions to problems. Mass meetings and individual counseling sessions are available. IEC materials are available to the Asian FP/MCH program from JOICFP. Some of these materials promote the concept of the Asian community spirit as a building block of development. The Asian approach is an alternative to Western models and may be valid for other regions.

  2. EU policy objectives and energy investment decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Alario, Juan

    2007-01-01

    EU energy policies have changed focus in the last few years with a view to substantially reducing energy import dependency and greenhouse gas emissions. The EU Commission has played a leading role in defining the new orientations. The implementation of the EU policy objectives approved by the Council of March 2007 will require a substantial expansion of energy investments. However, the degree of uncertainty affecting investment decisions remains high, notably in relation to the pricing of CO2...

  3. Conflict within the Turkish foreign policy decision making mechanism:

    OpenAIRE

    Oğuz, Mustafa; Oguz, Mustafa

    2005-01-01

    This thesis presents an analysis of Turkish foreign policy decision making in a theoretical model and argues that Turkish foreign policy is a product of negotiation and compromises among various foreign policy making actors. Theoretical foundation is built on decision units framework advanced by Margaret G. Herman. It applies this framework to two cases and four decision occasions to investigate who made foreign policy decisions and how this influenced foreign policy of Turkey. The first case...

  4. Public education for energy policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frigren, S.

    1977-01-01

    A brief review is given of the changes that took place in 1972-73 in public opinion and political views in Sweden, leading to new attitudes and increasing interest in matters is of energy policy. Although nuclear power was from the beginning the main issue, it became more and more widely recognized that a number of complex and technically difficult problems were involved. In late 1973 the Government decided to prepare a comprehensive energy policy programme for the period 1975-85 and to put this programme before Parliament in the spring of 1975. In order to involve the public in the decision making process, a public education programme was introduced in January 1974. The essentials of this programme are described. The main effort was provided by the adult education associations. These were given financial incentives to start energy study circles and prepared their own study material. Journalist seminars were also arranged. The paper then describes how the public, by its activities in the energy study circles, was given a possibility to influence the formulation of the new Swedish energy policy. It outlines the links between the educational efforts, the discussions in the study circles, and the standpoints ultimately taken by the different political parties on the key energy issues, especially as regards the future role of nuclear power. Finally, it also tries to evaluate to what extent this effort in education and involvement can be expected to react on the implementation of the energy policy programme and on future energy policy decisions

  5. ProVac Global Initiative: a vision shaped by ten years of supporting evidence-based policy decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jauregui, Barbara; Janusz, Cara Bess; Clark, Andrew D; Sinha, Anushua; Garcia, Ana Gabriela Felix; Resch, Stephen; Toscano, Cristiana M; Sanderson, Colin; Andrus, Jon Kim

    2015-05-07

    The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) created the ProVac Initiative in 2004 with the goal of strengthening national technical capacity to make evidence-based decisions on new vaccine introduction, focusing on economic evaluations. In view of the 10th anniversary of the ProVac Initiative, this article describes its progress and reflects on lessons learned to guide the next phase. We quantified the output of the Initiative's capacity-building efforts and critically assess its progress toward achieving the milestones originally proposed in 2004. Additionally, we reviewed how country studies supported by ProVac have directly informed and strengthened the deliberations around new vaccine introduction. Since 2004, ProVac has conducted four regional workshops and supported 24 health economic analyses in 15 Latin American and Caribbean countries. Five Regional Centers of Excellence were funded, resulting in six operational research projects and nine publications. Twenty four decisions on new vaccine introductions were supported with ProVac studies. Enduring products include the TRIVAC and CERVIVAC cost-effectiveness models, the COSTVAC program costing model, methodological guides, workshop training materials and the OLIVES on-line data repository. Ten NITAGs were strengthened through ProVac activities. The evidence accumulated suggests that initiatives with emphasis on sustainable training and direct support for countries to generate evidence themselves, can help accelerate the introduction of the most valuable new vaccines. International and Regional Networks of Collaborators are necessary to provide technical support and tools to national teams conducting analyses. Timeliness, integration, quality and country ownership of the process are four necessary guiding principles for national economic evaluations to have an impact on policymaking. It would be an asset to have a model that offers different levels of complexity to choose from depending on the vaccine being

  6. Decision Strategy Research and Policy Support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardeman, F.

    2002-01-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies and policy support is: (1) to investigate the decision making process, with all its relevant dimensions, in the context of radiation protection or other nuclear issues (with particular emphasis on emergency preparedness); (2) to disseminate knowledge on decision making and nuclear emergencies, including the organisation of training courses, the contribution to manuals or guidelines, the participation in working groups or discussion forums; (3) to assist the authorities and the industry on any topic related to radiation protection and to make expertise and infrastructure available; (4) to participate in and contribute to initiatives related to social sciences and their implementation into SCK-CEN; (5) to co-ordinate efforts of SCK-CEN related to medical applications of ionising radiation. Principal achievements in 2001 are described

  7. Decision Strategy Research and Policy Support

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hardeman, F

    2002-04-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies and policy support is: (1) to investigate the decision making process, with all its relevant dimensions, in the context of radiation protection or other nuclear issues (with particular emphasis on emergency preparedness); (2) to disseminate knowledge on decision making and nuclear emergencies, including the organisation of training courses, the contribution to manuals or guidelines, the participation in working groups or discussion forums; (3) to assist the authorities and the industry on any topic related to radiation protection and to make expertise and infrastructure available; (4) to participate in and contribute to initiatives related to social sciences and their implementation into SCK-CEN; (5) to co-ordinate efforts of SCK-CEN related to medical applications of ionising radiation. Principal achievements in 2001 are described.

  8. Partially Observable Markov Decision Process-Based Transmission Policy over Ka-Band Channels for Space Information Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Jiao

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The Ka-band and higher Q/V band channels can provide an appealing capacity for the future deep-space communications and Space Information Networks (SIN, which are viewed as a primary solution to satisfy the increasing demands for high data rate services. However, Ka-band channel is much more sensitive to the weather conditions than the conventional communication channels. Moreover, due to the huge distance and long propagation delay in SINs, the transmitter can only obtain delayed Channel State Information (CSI from feedback. In this paper, the noise temperature of time-varying rain attenuation at Ka-band channels is modeled to a two-state Gilbert–Elliot channel, to capture the channel capacity that randomly ranging from good to bad state. An optimal transmission scheme based on Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDP is proposed, and the key thresholds for selecting the optimal transmission method in the SIN communications are derived. Simulation results show that our proposed scheme can effectively improve the throughput.

  9. Using Collaborative Simulation Modeling to Develop a Web-Based Tool to Support Policy-Level Decision Making About Breast Cancer Screening Initiation Age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth S. Burnside MD, MPH, MS

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: There are no publicly available tools designed specifically to assist policy makers to make informed decisions about the optimal ages of breast cancer screening initiation for different populations of US women. Objective: To use three established simulation models to develop a web-based tool called Mammo OUTPuT. Methods: The simulation models use the 1970 US birth cohort and common parameters for incidence, digital screening performance, and treatment effects. Outcomes include breast cancers diagnosed, breast cancer deaths averted, breast cancer mortality reduction, false-positive mammograms, benign biopsies, and overdiagnosis. The Mammo OUTPuT tool displays these outcomes for combinations of age at screening initiation (every year from 40 to 49, annual versus biennial interval, lifetime versus 10-year horizon, and breast density, compared to waiting to start biennial screening at age 50 and continuing to 74. The tool was piloted by decision makers (n = 16 who completed surveys. Results: The tool demonstrates that benefits in the 40s increase linearly with earlier initiation age, without a specific threshold age. Likewise, the harms of screening increase monotonically with earlier ages of initiation in the 40s. The tool also shows users how the balance of benefits and harms varies with breast density. Surveys revealed that 100% of users (16/16 liked the appearance of the site; 94% (15/16 found the tool helpful; and 94% (15/16 would recommend the tool to a colleague. Conclusions: This tool synthesizes a representative subset of the most current CISNET (Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network simulation model outcomes to provide policy makers with quantitative data on the benefits and harms of screening women in the 40s. Ultimate decisions will depend on program goals, the population served, and informed judgments about the weight of benefits and harms.

  10. Decision support tools for policy and planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacyk, P.; Schultz, D.; Spangenberg, L.

    1995-01-01

    A decision support system (DSS) is being developed at the Radioactive Liquid Waste Treatment Facility, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The DSS will be used to evaluate alternatives for improving LANL's existing central radioactive waste water treatment plant and to evaluate new site-wide liquid waste treatment schemes that are required in order to handle the diverse waste streams produced at LANL. The decision support system consists of interacting modules that perform the following tasks: rigorous process simulation, configuration management, performance analysis, cost analysis, risk analysis, environmental impact assessment, transportation modeling, and local, state, and federal regulation compliance checking. Uncertainty handling techniques are used with these modules and also with a decision synthesis module which combines results from the modules listed above. We believe the DSS being developed can be applied to almost any other industrial water treatment facility with little modification because in most situations the waste streams are less complex, fewer regulations apply, and the political environment is simpler. The techniques being developed are also generally applicable to policy and planning decision support systems in the chemical process industry

  11. Impacts of subsidy policies on vaccination decisions in contact networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hai-Feng; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Xu, Xiao-Ke; Small, Michael; Wang, Lin; Wang, Bing-Hong

    2013-07-01

    To motivate more people to participate in vaccination campaigns, various subsidy policies are often supplied by government and the health sectors. However, these external incentives may also alter the vaccination decisions of the broader public, and hence the choice of incentive needs to be carefully considered. Since human behavior and the networking-constrained interactions among individuals significantly impact the evolution of an epidemic, here we consider the voluntary vaccination on human contact networks. To this end, two categories of typical subsidy policies are considered: (1) under the free subsidy policy, the total amount of subsidy is distributed to a certain fraction of individual and who are vaccinated without personal cost, and (2) under the partial-offset subsidy policy, each vaccinated person is offset by a certain amount of subsidy. A vaccination decision model based on evolutionary game theory is established to study the effects of these different subsidy policies on disease control. Simulations suggest that, because the partial-offset subsidy policy encourages more people to take vaccination, its performance is significantly better than that of the free subsidy policy. However, an interesting phenomenon emerges in the partial-offset scenario: with limited amount of total subsidy, a moderate subsidy rate for each vaccinated individual can guarantee the group-optimal vaccination, leading to the maximal social benefits, while such an optimal phenomenon is not evident for the free subsidy scenario.

  12. Interactions Among Insider Ownership, Dividend Policy, Debt Policy, Investment Decision, and Business Risk

    OpenAIRE

    F., Indri Erkaningrum

    2013-01-01

    The study of interaction among insider ownership, dividend policy, debt policy, investment decision, and business risk is still conducted. This research aims at investigating theinfluencing factors of insider ownership, dividend policy, debt policy, investment decision, business risk, and the interaction among insider ownership, dividend policy, debt policy, investment decision, and business risk. The samples of the research are 137 manufacturing companies listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchan...

  13. INTERACTIONS AMONG INSIDER OWNERSHIP, DIVIDEND POLICY, DEBT POLICY, INVESTMENT DECISION, AND BUSINESS RISK

    OpenAIRE

    F., Indri Erkaningrum

    2015-01-01

    The study of interaction among insider ownership, dividend policy, debt policy, investment decision, and business risk is still conducted. This research aims at investigating theinfluencing factors of insider ownership, dividend policy, debt policy, investment decision, business risk, and the interaction among insider ownership, dividend policy, debt policy, investment decision, and business risk. The samples of the research are 137 manufacturing companies listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchan...

  14. Public education for energy policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frigren, S.

    1977-01-01

    A brief review is given of the changes that took place in 1972-1973 in public opinion and political views in Sweden, leading to new attitudes and increasing interest in matters of energy policy. Although nuclear power was from the beginning the main issue, it became more and more widely recognized that a number of complex and technically difficult problems were involved. In late 1973, the Government decided to prepare a comprehensive energy policy programmme for the period 1975-1985 and to put this programme before Parliament in the spring of 1975. In order to involve the public in the decision-making process, a public education programme was introduced in January 1974. The essentials of this programme are described. The main effort was provided by the adult education associations, which were given financial incentives to start energy study circles and prepared their own study material. Journalist seminars were also arranged. The paper outlines the links between the educational efforts, the discussions in the study circles, and the standpoints ultimately taken by the different political parties on the energy issues. (author)

  15. Assumptions and Policy Decisions for Vital Area Identification Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Myungsu; Bae, Yeon-Kyoung; Lee, Youngseung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and IAEA guidance indicate that certain assumptions and policy questions should be addressed to a Vital Area Identification (VAI) process. Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power conducted a VAI based on current Design Basis Threat and engineering judgement to identify APR1400 vital areas. Some of the assumptions were inherited from Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) as a sabotage logic model was based on PSA logic tree and equipment location data. This paper illustrates some important assumptions and policy decisions for APR1400 VAI analysis. Assumptions and policy decisions could be overlooked at the beginning stage of VAI, however they should be carefully reviewed and discussed among engineers, plant operators, and regulators. Through APR1400 VAI process, some of the policy concerns and assumptions for analysis were applied based on document research and expert panel discussions. It was also found that there are more assumptions to define for further studies for other types of nuclear power plants. One of the assumptions is mission time, which was inherited from PSA.

  16. Decision making in energy policies with conflicting interests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renn, O.

    1988-01-01

    After the accident in Chernobyl policy making and implementation of energy decisions have become more difficult than ever. On the one hand the public reacts with fear and opposition to a possible extention of nuclear power, on the other hand the economic prosperity of a country depends on an inexpensive and non-exhaustive energy source like nuclear energy. The paper describes a concept of energy planning developed by a study group of the Nuclear Research Centre in Julich (FRG). The concept is based on the idea that in a pluralistic society different social groups should participate in the policy formulation process and that the values of the public should be incorporated in the weighting process to make choices between given options. As reference theory the basic framework of decision analysis is used. (orig./DG)

  17. What are the decision criteria of an energy policy?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daures, Pierre

    2014-04-01

    The author analyses and comments the determining factors of an energy policy. The first issue is to match supply and demand. He outlines why demand is difficult to control. As far as supply is concerned, several scales must be taken into account, notably a time scale (differences between base energies and intermittent energies) and a geographical scale (mass production and local production). Other determining factors are security of energy supply, preservation of the local environment, impact on climate, costs and prices, competitiveness of national companies, and the management of risks. The author then discusses how to take a decision, how to arbitrate between these factors as decisions are important and have long-lasting effects, as calculations on the long term raise the issue of future actualisation, as externalities must be integrated and valorised, and as an energy policy must set clear objectives and be aimed at the common good

  18. Editorial article for the special issue on data-based decision making around the world: From policy to practice to results

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schildkamp, Kim; Ehren, Melanie Catharina Margaretha; Lai, M.K.

    2012-01-01

    This editorial article briefly examines the importance of data-based decision making. It discusses the definition as well as rationale for data-based decision making, its purposes, the use of data at different levels of the educational system, and possible promoting and hindering factors of

  19. Making robust policy decisions using global biodiversity indicators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily Nicholson

    Full Text Available In order to influence global policy effectively, conservation scientists need to be able to provide robust predictions of the impact of alternative policies on biodiversity and measure progress towards goals using reliable indicators. We present a framework for using biodiversity indicators predictively to inform policy choices at a global level. The approach is illustrated with two case studies in which we project forwards the impacts of feasible policies on trends in biodiversity and in relevant indicators. The policies are based on targets agreed at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD meeting in Nagoya in October 2010. The first case study compares protected area policies for African mammals, assessed using the Red List Index; the second example uses the Living Planet Index to assess the impact of a complete halt, versus a reduction, in bottom trawling. In the protected areas example, we find that the indicator can aid in decision-making because it is able to differentiate between the impacts of the different policies. In the bottom trawling example, the indicator exhibits some counter-intuitive behaviour, due to over-representation of some taxonomic and functional groups in the indicator, and contrasting impacts of the policies on different groups caused by trophic interactions. Our results support the need for further research on how to use predictive models and indicators to credibly track trends and inform policy. To be useful and relevant, scientists must make testable predictions about the impact of global policy on biodiversity to ensure that targets such as those set at Nagoya catalyse effective and measurable change.

  20. Beliefs Underlying the Decision to Eat Breakfast: The Role of Theory-based Behavioral Analysis in the Development of Policy, Communication and Educational Interventions for Healthy Eating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middlestadt, Susan E; Stevenson, Laurel D; Hung, Chia-Ling; Roditis, Maria Leia; Fly, Alyce D; Sheats, Jylana L

    2011-01-01

    Policy, communication, and education efforts to influence any social or health outcome are more effective if based on an understanding of the underlying behaviors and their determinants. This conceptual paper outlines how behavioral theory can help design interventions for one healthy eating behavior, eating breakfast. More specifically, the paper illustrates how a prominent health behavior theory, the Reasoned Action Approach, can be used to guide formative research to identify factors underlying people's decisions. Select findings are presented from three studies of beliefs underlying eating breakfast: online surveys with 1185 undergraduates from a large university in Indiana; in-depth interviews with 61 adults from four Indiana worksites; and 63 in-depth interviews with students from three middle schools in rural Indiana. Analyses of data from the undergraduates demonstrated the role of self-efficacy. Analyses of data from the working adults revealed the importance of normative beliefs about what employers believed. Analyses comparing consequences perceived by adults with those perceived by middle school students found that both groups believed that eating breakfast would provide energy but only middle school students believed that eating breakfast would improve alertness. For each finding, the theory is presented, the finding is described, implications for interventions are suggested, and the need for additional research is outlined. In sum, theory-based behavioral research can help develop interventions at intrapersonal, interpersonal, and environmental levels that are warranted to encourage healthy eating.

  1. Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project 'European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast' - http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). A model was built to assess policy scenarios' impact on the pharmaceutical budgets of seven member states of the EU, namely France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. The following scenarios were tested: expanding the UK policies to EU, changing time to market access, modifying generic price and penetration, shifting the distribution chain of biosimilars (retail/hospital). Applying the UK policy resulted in dramatic savings for Germany (10 times the base case forecast) and substantial additional savings for France and Portugal (2 and 4 times the base case forecast, respectively). Delaying time to market was found be to a very powerful tool to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Applying the EU transparency directive (6-month process for pricing and reimbursement) increased pharmaceutical expenditure for all countries (from 1.1 to 4 times the base case forecast), except in Germany (additional savings). Decreasing the price of generics and boosting the penetration rate, as well as shifting distribution of biosimilars through hospital chain were also key methods to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Change in the level of reimbursement rate to 100% in all countries led to an important increase in the pharmaceutical budget. Forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure is a critical exercise to inform policy decision makers. The most important leverages identified by the model on pharmaceutical budget were driven by generic and biosimilar prices, penetration rate, and distribution. Reducing, even slightly, the prices of

  2. Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and objective With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project ‘European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast’ – http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Methods A model was built to assess policy scenarios’ impact on the pharmaceutical budgets of seven member states of the EU, namely France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. The following scenarios were tested: expanding the UK policies to EU, changing time to market access, modifying generic price and penetration, shifting the distribution chain of biosimilars (retail/hospital). Results Applying the UK policy resulted in dramatic savings for Germany (10 times the base case forecast) and substantial additional savings for France and Portugal (2 and 4 times the base case forecast, respectively). Delaying time to market was found be to a very powerful tool to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Applying the EU transparency directive (6-month process for pricing and reimbursement) increased pharmaceutical expenditure for all countries (from 1.1 to 4 times the base case forecast), except in Germany (additional savings). Decreasing the price of generics and boosting the penetration rate, as well as shifting distribution of biosimilars through hospital chain were also key methods to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Change in the level of reimbursement rate to 100% in all countries led to an important increase in the pharmaceutical budget. Conclusions Forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure is a critical exercise to inform policy decision makers. The most important leverages identified by the model on pharmaceutical budget were driven by generic and biosimilar prices, penetration rate

  3. Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making

    OpenAIRE

    R?muzat, C?cile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, ?sa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aball?a, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and objective: With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project ‘European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast’ – http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm).Methods: A model was built to assess policy sc...

  4. Why Are Cultural Policy Decisions Communicated in Cool Cash?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bille, Trine; Grønholm, Adam; Møgelgaard, Jeppe

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we analyze the role of the economic rationale in modern cultural policy decision communication and ask why it remains such an important factor, even though research has argued against it. Based on Luhmann’s system theory, we show how the economic rationale manifests itself...... in the cultural political communication as parasitic and complementary couplings, and how different communication forms are in play: the indirect, direct, and the both-and form. The point is to construct communicative positions in cultural policy. The positions involve the economic rationale in their own...... particular way and each of them offers themselves as a communicative platform which the culture politician can optionally step into and out of. The arts system stands out from other systems by not distinguishing itself in one single distinction and coding. In exactly this issue lies the communicative...

  5. Assessment of policy based residential solar PV potential using GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis : A case study of Apeldoorn, the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kausika, B. B.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/374786054; Dolla, O.; Van Sark, W. G.J.H.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/074628526

    2017-01-01

    The Postal Code Rose policy is part of the 2013 Dutch Energy Agreement of the Social and Economic Council of the Netherlands, introduced to support sustainable energy growth. This paper presents a case of the Dutch Postal code Rose policy by developing a method combining geographical information

  6. Students' Reactions to Course Policy Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Sarah F.; Jenkins, Jade S.; Barber, Larissa K.

    2016-01-01

    Classroom management involves managing students' requests for course policy changes. Instructors can adhere to the course policies or convey flexibility through making an exception for the student. The current study empirically examines students' emotional reactions (hostility, guilt, and surprise) and fairness perceptions to course policy…

  7. Application of HTA research on policy decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngkong, Sitaporn

    2014-05-01

    This article provides an overview of the potential uses of health technology assessment (HTA) in health technology or health intervention-related policy decision-making. It summarises the role of HTA in policy planning, health system investment, price negotiation, development of clinical practice guidelines, and communication with health professionals. While the multifaceted nature of HTA means that some aspects of the data can result in conflicting conclusions, the comprehensive approach of HTA is still recommended. To help minimise the potential conflicts within HTA data, a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach is recommended as a way to assess a number of decision criteria simultaneously. A combination of HTA with MCDA allows policy decision-making to be undertaken in an empirically rigorous and rational way. This combination can be used to support policy decision-makers in Thailand and help them prioritise topics for assessment and make informed health benefit package coverage decisions. This approach enhances the legitimacy of policy decisions by increasing the transparency, systematic nature, and inclusiveness of the process.

  8. Situating School District Resource Decision Making in Policy Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spain, Angeline K.

    2016-01-01

    Decentralization and deregulation policies assume that local educational leaders make better resource decisions than state policy makers do. Conceptual models drawn from organizational theory, however, offer competing predictions about how district central office administrators are likely to leverage their professional expertise in devolved…

  9. Anytime decision making based on unconstrained influence diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luque, Manuel; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Jensen, Finn Verner

    2016-01-01

    . This paper addresses this problem by proposing an anytime algorithm that at any time provides a qualified recommendation for the first decisions of the problem. The algorithm performs a heuristic-based search in a decision tree representation of the problem. We provide a framework for analyzing......Unconstrained influence diagrams extend the language of influence diagrams to cope with decision problems in which the order of the decisions is unspecified. Thus, when solving an unconstrained influence diagram we not only look for an optimal policy for each decision, but also for a so-called step......-policy specifying the next decision given the observations made so far. However, due to the complexity of the problem, temporal constraints can force the decision maker to act before the solution algorithm has finished, and, in particular, before an optimal policy for the first decision has been computed...

  10. Health services analysis as a tool for evidence-based policy decisions: the case of the Ministry of Health and Social Security in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroeger, Axel; Hernandez, Juan Manuel

    2003-12-01

    To describe the strengths and weaknesses of two Mexican health care providers for poor populations [Ministry of Health (MoH) and Social Security (SS)] in order to facilitate policy decisions about the future of the two systems. In four Mexican states we conducted (i) a household interview survey in 10 724 households; (ii) a user satisfaction survey in 1319 households; (iii) a satisfaction survey of 236 health workers; (iv) in-depth interviews with 190 health workers; (v) 188 focus-group discussions with different population groups; (vi) a document analysis. Both systems serve populations with similar characteristics of poverty. The availability of resources was better in the MoH system; SS care was better concerning process indicators (family planning, antenatal care; in-service delivery of drugs, staff productivity, user satisfaction and staff motivation), efficiency and effectiveness (reduction of morbidity and mortality). Possible explanatory factors for the better performance of the SS system were strong supervision, regular communication, joint data analysis and annual population surveys. Better service organization makes a difference regarding efficiency and effectiveness. Policy-makers, deciding on which kind of health services are best for the poor, should take into account health services' analyses.

  11. Multi-criteria group decision support with linguistic variables in long-term scenarios for Belgian energy policy

    OpenAIRE

    Ruan, Da; Lu, Jie; Laes, Erik; Zhang, Guangquan; Ma, Jun; Meskens, Gaston

    2010-01-01

    Real world decisions often made in the presence of multiple, conflicting, and incommensurate criteria. Decision making requires multiple perspectives of different individuals as more decisions are made now in groups than ever before. This is particularly true when the decision environment becomes more complex such as sustainability policies study in environmental and energy sectors. Group decision making processes judgments or solutions for decision problems based on the input and feedback of...

  12. Risk perception as a factor in policy and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoberg, L.

    2004-01-01

    Risk perception is often believed to be an important factor in policy decision making, when it comes to the management of hazardous technology. Research on risk perception by the public since the 1970's has purportedly shown that such perception is emotional and based on ignorance. Experts, on the other hand, have been claimed to be objective and correct in their risk assessments. The present paper reviews a large body of research which has led to a quite different conclusions, viz. that emotions play only a marginal role in risk perception, which is mainly driven by ideological concerns and attitudes. The methodological shortcomings of the prevailing view of risk perception as emotional and simply misinformed are described. (author)

  13. Energy policy decision making and public opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerstein, L.

    1989-09-01

    By the example of nuclear the author demonstrates the interactions of short-term fluctuations on the world energy market, energy forecasts, specific events and discussions on energy policy both within political parties and in the general public, and draws conclusions which are valid beyond the Federal Republic of Germany: An analysis of the general public's attitude towards nuclear energy shows two initial phases, i.e. euphoria and scepticism/ideology/agitation. The early eighties, then, led to a third phase - realism. Up to 1983 a consensus prevailed between the leading political parties in Germany regarding the basic energy-policy objective of minimizing the supply risk by providing for a well-balanced use of all available energy sources. The resulting attitude had a positive bearing on the public opinion: more than two thirds of the population were in favour of nuclear. In the mid-eighties, the development of nuclear was by and large completed in the Federal Republic of Germany as well as in the United States and other western industrialized countries and the capacity of nuclear power plants is considered sufficient for the years to come. In addition, abundant long-term reserves of domestic lignite and hardcoal are available: this also should have furnished a good reason to envisage calmly the issues of power supply. Instead, we are again facing emotional discussions on the acceptance of nuclear. Public opinion in the Federal Republic of Germany has changed since the Social Democrats followed the example of the Ecologists and advocated a rapid withdrawal from nuclear. In a recent poll four-fifths of the persons asked did not rule out the possibility of a major accident in a German power station. The wish to ignore today's energy supply problems by escaping into a supposedly safe but yet distant and vague future is part of every public debate. Technical and scientific issues are examined no longer in this global context. Predictions of experts and counter

  14. Special interest in decision making in entrepreneurship policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bager, Torben; Klyver, Kim; Schou Nielsen, Pia

    2015-01-01

    The study investigates the role of the special interests of key decision makers in entrepreneurship policy formation at the national level. An ethnographic method is applied to analyse in depth the 2005 decision by the Danish Government to shift from volume oriented to growth oriented...... entrepreneurship policy. The theoretical value of this paper is its challenge to the widespread rationality view in the entrepreneurship field and a deepened understanding of how the pursuit of special interests is related to ambiguous evidence and system-level rationality....

  15. Applications of decision theory to test-based decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    1987-01-01

    The use of Bayesian decision theory to solve problems in test-based decision making is discussed. Four basic decision problems are distinguished: (1) selection; (2) mastery; (3) placement; and (4) classification, the situation where each treatment has its own criterion. Each type of decision can be

  16. Artificial intelligence and foreign policy decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Berkoff, Russ H.

    1997-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited With the advent of a global information society, the US will seek to tap the potential of advanced computing capability to enhance its ability to conduct foreign policy decision making. This thesis explores the potential for improving individual and organizational decision making capabilities by means of artificial intelligence (AI). The use of AI will allow us to take advantage of the plethora of information available to obtain an edg...

  17. Optimum equipment maintenance/replacement policy. Part 2: Markov decision approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charng, T.

    1982-01-01

    Dynamic programming was utilized as an alternative optimization technique to determine an optimal policy over a given time period. According to a joint effect of the probabilistic transition of states and the sequence of decision making, the optimal policy is sought such that a set of decisions optimizes the long-run expected average cost (or profit) per unit time. Provision of an alternative measure for the expected long-run total discounted costs is also considered. A computer program based on the concept of the Markov Decision Process was developed and tested. The program code listing, the statement of a sample problem, and the computed results are presented.

  18. Using decision pathway surveys to inform climate engineering policy choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Robin; Satterfield, Terre; Hasell, Ariel

    2016-01-19

    Over the coming decades citizens living in North America and Europe will be asked about a variety of new technological and behavioral initiatives intended to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. A common approach to public input has been surveys whereby respondents' attitudes about climate change are explained by individuals' demographic background, values, and beliefs. In parallel, recent deliberative research seeks to more fully address the complex value tradeoffs linked to novel technologies and difficult ethical questions that characterize leading climate mitigation alternatives. New methods such as decision pathway surveys may offer important insights for policy makers by capturing much of the depth and reasoning of small-group deliberations while meeting standard survey goals including large-sample stakeholder engagement. Pathway surveys also can help participants to deepen their factual knowledge base and arrive at a more complete understanding of their own values as they apply to proposed policy alternatives. The pathway results indicate more fully the conditional and context-specific nature of support for several "upstream" climate interventions, including solar radiation management techniques and carbon dioxide removal technologies.

  19. Reimbursement decisions in health policy--extending our understanding of the elements of decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirtz, Veronika; Cribb, Alan; Barber, Nick

    2005-09-08

    Previous theoretical and empirical work on health policy decisions about reimbursement focuses on specific rationales such as effectiveness, economic considerations and equal access for equal needs. As reimbursement decisions take place in a social and political context we propose that the analysis of decision-making should incorporate factors, which go beyond those commonly discussed. As an example we chose three health technologies (sildenafil, rivastigmine and statins) to investigate how decisions about reimbursement of medicines are made in the United Kingdom National Health Service and what factors influence these decisions. From face-to-face, in-depth interviews with a purposive sample of 20 regional and national policy makers and stakeholders we identified two dimensions of decision-making, which extend beyond the rationales conventionally cited. The first dimension relates to the role of 'subjectivity' or 'the personal' in the decisions, including personal experiences of the condition and excitement about the novelty or potential benefit of the technology-these factors affect what counts as evidence, or how evidence is interpreted, in practice. The second dimension relates to the social and political function of decision-making and broadens what counts as the relevant ends of decision-making to include such things as maintaining relationships, avoiding organisational burden, generating politically and legally defensible decisions and demonstrating the willingness to care. More importantly, we will argue that these factors should not be treated as contaminants of an otherwise rational decision-making. On the contrary we suggest that they seem relevant, reasonable and also of substantial importance in considering in decision-making. Complementing the analysis of decision-making about reimbursement by incorporating these factors could increase our understanding and potentially improve decision-making.

  20. Controlling equine influenza: policy networks and decision-making during the 2007 Australian equine influenza outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schemann, K; Gillespie, J A; Toribio, J-A L M L; Ward, M P; Dhand, N K

    2014-10-01

    Rapid, evidence-based decision-making is critical during a disease outbreak response; however, compliance by stakeholders is necessary to ensure that such decisions are effective - especially if the response depends on voluntary action. This mixed method study evaluated technical policy decision-making processes during the 2007 outbreak of equine influenza in Australia by identifying and analysing the stakeholder network involved and the factors driving policy decision-making. The study started with a review of the outbreak literature and published policy documents. This identified six policy issues regarding policy modifications or differing interpretations by different state agencies. Data on factors influencing the decision-making process for these six issues and on stakeholder interaction were collected using a pre-tested, semi-structured questionnaire. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 24 individuals representing 12 industry and government organizations. Quantitative data were analysed using social network analysis. Qualitative data were coded and patterns matched to test a pre-determined general theory using a method called theory-oriented process-tracing. Results revealed that technical policy decisions were framed by social, political, financial, strategic and operational considerations. Industry stakeholders had influence through formal pre-existing channels, yet specific gaps in stakeholder interaction were overcome by reactive alliances formed during the outbreak response but outside the established system. Overall, the crisis management system and response were seen as positive, and 75-100% of individuals interviewed were supportive of, had interest in and considered the outcome as good for the majority of policy decisions, yet only 46-75% of those interviewed considered that they had influence on these decisions. Training to increase awareness and knowledge of emergency animal diseases (EADs) and response systems will improve stakeholder

  1. Beyond the lab: observations on the process by which science successfully informs management and policy decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, S.

    2012-12-01

    Scientific findings inform management decisions and policy products through various ways, these include: synthesis reports, white papers, in-person and web-based seminars (webinars), communication from specialized staff, and seminal peer-reviewed journal articles. Scientists are often told that if they want their science to inform management decisions and policy products that they must: clearly and simply articulate discreet pieces of scientific information and avoid attaching advocacy messages to the science; however, solely relying on these tenants does not ensure that scientific products will infuse the realms of management and policy. The process by which science successfully informs management decisions and policy products rarely begins at the time the results come out of the lab, but rather, before the research is carried out. Having an understanding of the political climate, management needs, agency research agendas, and funding limitations, as well as developing a working relationship with the intended managers and policy makers are key elements to developing the kind of science results and products that often make an impact in the management and policy world. In my presentation I will provide case-studies from California (USA) to highlight the type of coastal, ocean and climate science that has been successful in informing management decisions and policy documents, as well as provide a state-level agency perspective on the process by which this occurs.

  2. Case-Based Policy and Goal Recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    Policy and Goal Recognizer (PaGR), a case- based system for multiagent keyhole recognition. PaGR is a knowledge recognition component within a decision...However, unlike our agent in the BVR domain, these recognition agents have access to perfect information. Single-agent keyhole plan recognition can be...listed below: 1. Facing Target 2. Closing on Target 3. Target Range 4. Within a Target’s Weapon Range 5. Has Target within Weapon Range 6. Is in Danger

  3. Decision policy scenarios for just-in-sequence (JIS) deliveries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cedillo-Campos, Miguel Gaston; Ruelas, Dario Morones; Lizarraga-Lizarraga, Giovanni; Gonzalez-Feliu, Jesus; Garza-Reyes, Jose Arturo

    2017-01-01

    The Just-in-Sequence (JIS) approach is evidencing advantages in efficiently managing variety-driven costs, and reducing the risk of disruption in sourcing, manufacturing companies and third-party logistics. This has increased its implementation in the manufacturing industry, especially in highly customized manufacturing sectors such as the automotive industry. However, despite its growing interest by manufacturers, scholarly research focused on JIS still remains limited. In this context, little has been done to study the effect of JIS on the fluidity of supply chains and processes of logistics suppliers as well as providing them with a decision making tool to optimise the sequencing of their deliveries. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to propose a genetic algorithm to evaluate different decision policy scenarios to reduce risks of supply disruptions at the final assembly line. Consequently, an algorithm considering a periodic review of the inventory that assumes a steady demand and short response times is developed and applied. Design/methodology/approach: Based on a literature review and real-life information, an abductive reasoning was performed and a case study application of the proposed algorithm conducted in the auto-industry. Findings: The results obtained from the case study indicate that the proposed genetic algorithm offers a reliable solution when facing variability in safety stocks that operate under assumptions such as: i) fixed costs; ii) high inventory turnover; iii) scarce previous information available concerning material requirements; and iv) replenishment services as core business value. Although the results are based on an auto-industry case study, they are equally applicable to other global supply chains. Originality/value: This paper is of interest to practitioners and academics alike as it complements and supports the very limited scholarly research on JIS by providing manufacturers and 3PL suppliers competing in mass customized

  4. Decision policy scenarios for just-in-sequence (JIS deliveries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Gaston Cedillo-Campos

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The Just-in-Sequence (JIS approach is evidencing advantages in efficiently managing variety-driven costs, and reducing the risk of disruption in sourcing, manufacturing companies and third-party logistics. This has increased its implementation in the manufacturing industry, especially in highly customized manufacturing sectors such as the automotive industry. However, despite its growing interest by manufacturers, scholarly research focused on JIS still remains limited. In this context, little has been done to study the effect of JIS on the fluidity of supply chains and processes of logistics suppliers as well as providing them with a decision making tool to optimise the sequencing of their deliveries. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to propose a genetic algorithm to evaluate different decision policy scenarios to reduce risks of supply disruptions at the final assembly line. Consequently, an algorithm considering a periodic review of the inventory that assumes a steady demand and short response times is developed and applied. Design/methodology/approach: Based on a literature review and real-life information, an abductive reasoning was performed and a case study application of the proposed algorithm conducted in the auto-industry. Findings: The results obtained from the case study indicate that the proposed genetic algorithm offers a reliable solution when facing variability in safety stocks that operate under assumptions such as: i fixed costs; ii high inventory turnover; iii scarce previous information available concerning material requirements; and iv replenishment services as core business value. Although the results are based on an auto-industry case study, they are equally applicable to other global supply chains. Originality/value: This paper is of interest to practitioners and academics alike as it complements and supports the very limited scholarly research on JIS by providing manufacturers and 3PL suppliers competing in

  5. Decision policy scenarios for just-in-sequence (JIS) deliveries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cedillo-Campos, Miguel Gaston; Ruelas, Dario Morones; Lizarraga-Lizarraga, Giovanni; Gonzalez-Feliu, Jesus; Garza-Reyes, Jose Arturo

    2017-07-01

    The Just-in-Sequence (JIS) approach is evidencing advantages in efficiently managing variety-driven costs, and reducing the risk of disruption in sourcing, manufacturing companies and third-party logistics. This has increased its implementation in the manufacturing industry, especially in highly customized manufacturing sectors such as the automotive industry. However, despite its growing interest by manufacturers, scholarly research focused on JIS still remains limited. In this context, little has been done to study the effect of JIS on the fluidity of supply chains and processes of logistics suppliers as well as providing them with a decision making tool to optimise the sequencing of their deliveries. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to propose a genetic algorithm to evaluate different decision policy scenarios to reduce risks of supply disruptions at the final assembly line. Consequently, an algorithm considering a periodic review of the inventory that assumes a steady demand and short response times is developed and applied. Design/methodology/approach: Based on a literature review and real-life information, an abductive reasoning was performed and a case study application of the proposed algorithm conducted in the auto-industry. Findings: The results obtained from the case study indicate that the proposed genetic algorithm offers a reliable solution when facing variability in safety stocks that operate under assumptions such as: i) fixed costs; ii) high inventory turnover; iii) scarce previous information available concerning material requirements; and iv) replenishment services as core business value. Although the results are based on an auto-industry case study, they are equally applicable to other global supply chains. Originality/value: This paper is of interest to practitioners and academics alike as it complements and supports the very limited scholarly research on JIS by providing manufacturers and 3PL suppliers competing in mass customized

  6. The qualitative characteristics of financial information, and managers’ accounting decisions:evidence from IFRS policy changes

    OpenAIRE

    Nobes, Christopher; Stadler, Christian

    2015-01-01

    This is the first empirical study that uses publicly available data to provide direct evidence about the role of the qualitative characteristics (QCs) of financial information in managements’ accounting decisions. Based on 40,895 hand-collected IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) policy choices on 16 topics made by 514 large firms of 10 jurisdictions in the period 2005–2011, we identify 204 reasons for policy changes. The majority of these refer to QCs from the conceptual frame...

  7. Identification of Optimal Policies in Markov Decision Processes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sladký, Karel

    46 2010, č. 3 (2010), s. 558-570 ISSN 0023-5954. [International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Economy and Industry. České Budějovice, 15.06.2009-18.06.2009] R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/0107; GA ČR GA402/07/1113 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : finite state Markov decision processes * discounted and average costs * elimination of suboptimal policies Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.461, year: 2010 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/E/sladky-identification of optimal policies in markov decision processes.pdf

  8. Evidence-based policy: implications for nursing and policy involvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewison, Alistair

    2008-11-01

    Evidence-based policy making is espoused as a central feature of government in the United Kingdom. However, an expectation that this will improve the quality of policy produced and provide a path to increased involvement of nurses in the policy process is misplaced. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate that the emphasis on evidence-based policy is problematic and cannot be regarded as a "new model" of policy making. Also, it could deflect attention from more practical approaches to policy involvement on the part of nurses. Policy development activities, acquisition of skills in policy analysis, and other forms of involvement are needed if nurses are to move along the continuum from policy literacy, through policy acumen, to policy competence. This involves taking a critical stance on the notion of evidence-based policy.

  9. Big Data: transforming drug development and health policy decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alemayehu, Demissie; Berger, Marc L

    The explosion of data sources, accompanied by the evolution of technology and analytical techniques, has created considerable challenges and opportunities for drug development and healthcare resource utilization. We present a systematic overview these phenomena, and suggest measures to be taken for effective integration of the new developments in the traditional medical research paradigm and health policy decision making. Special attention is paid to pertinent issues in emerging areas, including rare disease drug development, personalized medicine, Comparative Effectiveness Research, and privacy and confidentiality concerns.

  10. On developing a prospecting tool for wind industry and policy decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKeown, Charles; Adelaja, Adesoji; Calnin, Benjamin

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the rudiments of a Wind Prospecting Tool designed to inform private and public decision makers involved in wind industry development in reducing transaction costs associated with identifying areas of mutual focus within a state. The multiple layer decision support framework has proven to be valuable to industry, state government and local decision makers. Information on wind resources, land availability, potential land costs, potential NIMBYism concerns and economic development potential were integrated to develop a framework for decision support. The paper also highlights implications for decision support research and the role of higher education in providing anticipatory science to enhance private and public choices in economic development. - Research Highlights: →In this paper we explore the building and value of a wind industry location decision support tool. →We examine the development process from the industry perspective. →We discuss the creation of a decision support tool that was designed for industry, state policy makers and local decision makers. →We build a model framework for wind prospecting decision support. →Finally we discuss the impact on local and state decision making as a result of being informed by science based decision support.

  11. Discounted semi-Markov decision processes : linear programming and policy iteration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wessels, J.; van Nunen, J.A.E.E.

    1975-01-01

    For semi-Markov decision processes with discounted rewards we derive the well known results regarding the structure of optimal strategies (nonrandomized, stationary Markov strategies) and the standard algorithms (linear programming, policy iteration). Our analysis is completely based on a primal

  12. Discounted semi-Markov decision processes : linear programming and policy iteration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wessels, J.; van Nunen, J.A.E.E.

    1974-01-01

    For semi-Markov decision processes with discounted rewards we derive the well known results regarding the structure of optimal strategies (nonrandomized, stationary Markov strategies) and the standard algorithms (linear programming, policy iteration). Our analysis is completely based on a primal

  13. Rule-based decision making model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sirola, Miki

    1998-01-01

    A rule-based decision making model is designed in G2 environment. A theoretical and methodological frame for the model is composed and motivated. The rule-based decision making model is based on object-oriented modelling, knowledge engineering and decision theory. The idea of safety objective tree is utilized. Advanced rule-based methodologies are applied. A general decision making model 'decision element' is constructed. The strategy planning of the decision element is based on e.g. value theory and utility theory. A hypothetical process model is built to give input data for the decision element. The basic principle of the object model in decision making is division in tasks. Probability models are used in characterizing component availabilities. Bayes' theorem is used to recalculate the probability figures when new information is got. The model includes simple learning features to save the solution path. A decision analytic interpretation is given to the decision making process. (author)

  14. Regime change and public policy: the political and macro-economic decision-making of Spanish energy policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lancaster, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This dissertation examines the effects of peaceful regime change on public policy-making. Spain's National Energy Plan (PEN) in particular, and energy planning in general, constitute a critical policy issue which permits direct comparison of decision-making across regime change from the Franco dictatorship to the present constitutional monarchy. The research reveals that the nature of the political coalition underlying Spain's regime change accounts of the lack of significant change in policy-making processes in this particular policy issue. This thesis develops a two-pronged argument to explain the absence of significant policy change. The first is based on a general view of the Franco regime's and the democratic system's coalitional support. In each, three major political forces are seen as central: the military, business, and labor. One of these, business, is seen as being pivotal in the regime transition. Business' pivotal position, it is argued, has permitted a defence of a national energy policy beneficial to its economic interests in energy. The argument's second part focuses on the binding constraint on policy outcomes imposed by private interests in state planning and the generally non-binding nature of oppositional party policy proposals and public opinion.

  15. Organisational Factors Affecting Policy and Programme Decision Making in a Public Health Policy Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zardo, Pauline; Collie, Alex; Livingstone, Charles

    2015-01-01

    Organisational factors can affect the success of interventions aimed at increasing research use. Research is needed to identify organisational factors affecting research use in specific public health policy contexts. Qualitative interviews with decision makers from a specific public health context identified a range of organisational factors that…

  16. Developing policy analytics for public health strategy and decisions-the Sheffield alcohol policy model framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennan, Alan; Meier, Petra; Purshouse, Robin; Rafia, Rachid; Meng, Yang; Hill-Macmanus, Daniel

    This paper sets out the development of a methodological framework for detailed evaluation of public health strategies for alcohol harm reduction to meet UK policy-makers needs. Alcohol is known to cause substantial harms, and controlling its affordability and availability are effective policy options. Analysis and synthesis of a variety of public and commercial data sources is needed to evaluate impact on consumers, health services, crime, employers and industry, so a sound evaluation of impact is important. We discuss the iterative process to engage with stakeholders, identify evidence/data and develop analytic approaches and produce a final model structure. We set out a series of steps in modelling impact including: classification and definition of population subgroups of interest, identification and definition of harms and outcomes for inclusion, classification of modifiable components of risk and their baseline values, specification of the baseline position on policy variables especially prices, estimating effects of changing policy variables on risk factors including price elasticities, quantifying risk functions relating risk factors to harms including 47 health conditions, crimes, absenteeism and unemployment, and monetary valuation. The most difficult model structuring decisions are described, as well as the final results framework used to provide decision support to national level policymakers in the UK. In the discussion we explore issues around the relationship between modelling and policy debates, valuation and scope, limitations of evidence/data, how the framework can be adapted to other countries and decisions. We reflect on the approach taken and outline ongoing plans for further development.

  17. Evidence-based policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vohnsen, Nina Holm

    2013-01-01

    -makers and the research community (e.g. Boden & Epstein 2006; House of Commons 2006; Cartwright et al 2009; Rod 2010; Vohnsen 2011). This article intends to draw out some general pitfalls in the curious meeting of science and politics by focusing on a particular attempt to make evidence-based legislation in Denmark (for...

  18. Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? New evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sturm, Jan-Egbert; De Haan, Jakob

    Nowadays, it is widely believed that greater disclosure and clarity over policy may lead to greater predictability of central bank actions. We examine whether communication by the European Central Bank (ECB) adds information compared to the information provided by a Taylor rule model in which

  19. Energy Saving by Firms. Decision-Making, Barriers and Policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Groot, H.L.F.; Verhoef, E.T.; Nijkamp, P. [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    1999-04-01

    Promoting investments in energy saving technologies is an important means for achieving environmental goals. Unfortunately, the empirical evidence on success conditions of policies is scarce. Based on a survey among Dutch firms, this paper sets out to identify the factors that determine the investment behaviour of firms, their attitude towards various types of energy policy, and their responsiveness to changes in environmental policy in the Netherlands. On the basis of discrete choice models, this paper aims to investigate empirically whether (and how) these strategic features vary over firm characteristics and over sectors. 15 refs.

  20. Energy saving by firms. Decision-making, barriers and policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Groot, H.L.F.; Verhoef, E.T.; Nijkamp, P. [Department of Spatial Economics and Tinbergen Institute, Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2001-11-01

    Promoting investments in energy-saving technologies is an important means for achieving environmental goals. Empirical evidence on success conditions of associated policies, however, is scarce. Based on a survey among Dutch firms, this paper sets out to identify the factors that determine the investment behaviour of firms, their attitude towards various types of energy policy, and their responsiveness to changes in environmental policy in the Netherlands. On the basis of discrete choice models, this paper aims to investigate empirically, whether (and how) these strategic features vary over firm characteristics and over sectors.

  1. Energy saving by firms. Decision-making, barriers and policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Groot, H.L.F.; Verhoef, E.T.; Nijkamp, P.

    2001-01-01

    Promoting investments in energy-saving technologies is an important means for achieving environmental goals. Empirical evidence on success conditions of associated policies, however, is scarce. Based on a survey among Dutch firms, this paper sets out to identify the factors that determine the investment behaviour of firms, their attitude towards various types of energy policy, and their responsiveness to changes in environmental policy in the Netherlands. On the basis of discrete choice models, this paper aims to investigate empirically, whether (and how) these strategic features vary over firm characteristics and over sectors

  2. Enhancing Evidence-Based Public Health Policy: Developing and Using Policy Narratives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troy, Lisa M; Kietzman, Kathryn G

    2016-06-01

    Academic researchers and clinicians have a critical role in shaping public policies to improve the health of an aging America. Policy narratives that pair personal stories with research statistics are a powerful tool to share knowledge generated in academic and clinical settings with policymakers. Effective policy narratives rely on a trustworthy and competent narrator and a compelling story that highlights the personal impact of policies under consideration and academic research that bolsters the story. Awareness of the cultural differences in the motivations, expectations, and institutional constraints of academic researchers and clinicians as information producers and U.S. Congress and federal agencies as information users is critical to the development of policy narratives that impact policy decisions. The current article describes the development and use of policy narratives to bridge cultures and enhance evidence-based public health policies that better meet the needs of older adults. [Journal of Gerontological Nursing, 42(6), 11-17.]. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

  3. Decision-Making Based on Emotional Images

    OpenAIRE

    Katahira, Kentaro; Fujimura, Tomomi; Okanoya, Kazuo; Okada, Masato

    2011-01-01

    The emotional outcome of a choice affects subsequent decision making. While the relationship between decision making and emotion has attracted attention, studies on emotion and decision making have been independently developed. In this study, we investigated how the emotional valence of pictures, which was stochastically contingent on participants’ choices, influenced subsequent decision making. In contrast to traditional value-based decision-making studies that used money or food as a reward...

  4. Decision making based on emotional images

    OpenAIRE

    Kentaro eKatahira; Kentaro eKatahira; Kentaro eKatahira; Tomomi eFujimura; Tomomi eFujimura; Kazuo eOkanoya; Kazuo eOkanoya; Kazuo eOkanoya; Masato eOkada; Masato eOkada; Masato eOkada

    2011-01-01

    The emotional outcome of a choice affects subsequent decision making. While the relationship between decision making and emotion has attracted attention, studies on emotion and decision making have been independently developed. In this study, we investigated how the emotional valence of pictures, which was stochastically contingent on participants’ choices, influenced subsequent decision making. In contrast to traditional value-based decision-making studies that used money or food as a reward...

  5. Merging Energy Policy Decision Support, Education, and Communication: The 'World Energy' Simulation Role-Playing Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooney-varga, J. N.; Franck, T.; Jones, A.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.

    2013-12-01

    To meet international goals for climate change mitigation and adaptation, as well as energy access and equity, there is an urgent need to explore and define energy policy paths forward. Despite this need, students, citizens, and decision-makers often hold deeply flawed mental models of the energy and climate systems. Here we describe a simulation role-playing game, World Energy, that provides an immersive learning experience in which participants can create their own path forward for global energy policy and learn about the impact of their policy choices on carbon dioxide emissions, temperature rise, energy supply mix, energy prices, and energy demand. The game puts players in the decision-making roles of advisors to the United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative (drawn from international leaders from industry, governments, intergovernmental organizations, and citizens groups) and, using a state-of-the-art decision-support simulator, asks them to negotiate a plan for global energy policy. We use the En-ROADS (Energy Rapid Overview and Decision Support) simulator, which runs on a laptop computer in <0.1 sec. En-ROADS enables users to specify many factors, including R&D-driven cost reductions in fossil fuel-based, renewable, or carbon-neutral energy technologies; taxes and subsidies for different energy sources; performance standards and energy efficiency; emissions prices; policies to address other greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, etc.); and assumptions about GDP and population. In World Energy, participants must balance climate change mitigation goals with equity, prices and access to energy, and the political feasibility of policies. Initial results indicate participants gain insights into the dynamics of the energy and climate systems and greater understanding of the potential impacts policies.

  6. A Scalable Policy and SNMP Based Network Management Framework

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Su-ping; DING Yong-sheng

    2009-01-01

    Traditional SNMP-based network management can not deal with the task of managing large-scaled distributed network,while policy-based management is one of the effective solutions in network and distributed systems management. However,cross-vendor hardware compatibility is one of the limitations in policy-based management. Devices existing in current network mostly support SNMP rather than Common Open Policy Service (COPS) protocol. By analyzing traditional network management and policy-based network management, a scalable network management framework is proposed. It is combined with Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) framework for policybased management and SNMP-based network management. By interpreting and translating policy decision to SNMP message,policy can be executed in traditional SNMP-based device.

  7. Moving towards tangible decision-making tools for policy makers: Measuring and monitoring energy access provision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhanot, Jaya; Jha, Vivek

    2012-01-01

    Access to energy services has been recognised as central to achieving economic growth and sustainable development. However, almost 1.3 billion people in the world still lack access to electricity and 2.7 billion lack access to clean cooking facilities. In this backdrop, the issue of energy access is receiving more interest than ever before and this has brought to the fore, the need for a robust decision support tool for policy makers to measure the progress of energy access provision and also to provide direction for future policy making. The paper studies existing definitions of energy access and identifies the key requirements for an appropriate decision-making tool to measure and monitor energy access provision. In this context the paper assesses the strengths and weaknesses of the metrics currently being used to measure energy access in policy, as well as of contemporary monitoring and evaluation frameworks being used in other sectors. Based on these insights, a dashboard of indicators is proposed as an alternate decision support tool for policy makers to measure energy access. The paper concludes with a discussion on what is needed to operationalise this proposed framework. - Highlights: ► No one indicator or metric can successfully capture progress on energy access. ► A service oriented approach is necessary to measure energy access. ► Socio-economic and political contexts influence success of energy access policies.

  8. From Population Databases to Research and Informed Health Decisions and Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machluf, Yossy; Tal, Orna; Navon, Amir; Chaiter, Yoram

    2017-01-01

    In the era of big data, the medical community is inspired to maximize the utilization and processing of the rapidly expanding medical datasets for clinical-related and policy-driven research. This requires a medical database that can be aggregated, interpreted, and integrated at both the individual and population levels. Policymakers seek data as a lever for wise, evidence-based decision-making and information-driven policy. Yet, bridging the gap between data collection, research, and policymaking, is a major challenge. To bridge this gap, we propose a four-step model: (A) creating a conjoined task force of all relevant parties to declare a national program to promote collaborations; (B) promoting a national digital records project, or at least a network of synchronized and integrated databases, in an accessible transparent manner; (C) creating an interoperative national research environment to enable the analysis of the organized and integrated data and to generate evidence; and (D) utilizing the evidence to improve decision-making, to support a wisely chosen national policy. For the latter purpose, we also developed a novel multidimensional set of criteria to illuminate insights and estimate the risk for future morbidity based on current medical conditions. Used by policymakers, providers of health plans, caregivers, and health organizations, we presume this model will assist transforming evidence generation to support the design of health policy and programs, as well as improved decision-making about health and health care, at all levels: individual, communal, organizational, and national.

  9. Energy saving by firms: decision making, barriers and policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Groot, H.L.F.; Verhoef, E.T.; Nijkamp, P.

    2001-01-01

    Promoting investments in energy-saving technologies is an important means for achieving environmental goals. Empirical evidence on success conditions of associated policies, however, is scarce. Based on a survey among Dutch firms, this paper sets out to identify the factors that determine the

  10. Woody biomass policies and location decisions of the woody bioenergy industry in the southern United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Zhimei; Hodges, Donald G.; Young, Timothy M.

    2013-01-01

    Woody biomass for bioenergy production has been included in relatively few renewable energy policies since the 1970s. Recently, however, several states have implemented a variety of new woody biomass policies to spur the establishment of new bioenergy industry. Establishing new woody biomass-based facilities in a specific state is affected by a number of factors such as the strength of these new policy incentives, resource availability, business tax climate, and the available labor force. This study employs a conditional logit model (CLM) to explore the effects of woody biomass policies on the siting decisions of new bioenergy projects relative to some of these other state attributes. The CLM results suggest that state government incentives are significantly related to state success in attracting new plants. The results have substantial implications regarding woody biomass policies and the creation of a new bioenergy industry. -- Highlights: •This study explores the effects of state attributes on the siting decisions of new woody bioenergy projects. •Results suggest that state woody biomass policies are significantly related to state success in attracting new plants. •Other factors related to the siting of woody bioenergy facilities include resource availability, taxes, and wage rate

  11. Environment based innovation: policy questions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Rui Silva

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Natural resources and physical cultural resources, referred to in this paper as “Environmental Resources”, can be important assets for regional competitiveness and innovation. In recent years, these types of assets have been increasingly taken into consideration in the design and implementation of regional development strategies, as a consequence of their potential role as a source of differentiation and of new competitive advantages. However, in contrast to environmental policies, which usually focus on the protection of the environment, innovation policies and their instruments are largely shaped by, and geared towards, knowledge-based innovation.In this paper, we discuss the role played by environmental resources in the context of regional innovation policies. We begin by discussing the relationship between environmental resources and regional development, and by emphasizing some contrasting views with regard to the function of environmental resources in regional development. Then, we address the relationship between regional competitive advantages and innovation strategies. The specific issues and problems that arise whenever the aim is to attain competitive advantages through the valorisation of environmental resources constitute the core of section III. In that section, we highlight the specific characteristics of environmental resources and we discuss the applicability of the “natural resource curse” argument to the dynamics based on the valorisation of environmental resources. The reasons that justify public interventionas well as the difficulties concerning the adequate level of intervention (local / regional / national are also examined. The paper ends with some conclusions and policy implications.

  12. Three essays on decision-making in energy policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wendling, Zachary Ann

    This dissertation examines three issues surrounding decision-making in energy policy. Over the past decade, technological advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have allowed the economical extraction of natural gas and petroleum from shale basins. Thus far, natural gas has been produced from shale at a commercial scale only in certain American States and Canadian Provinces, though potential shale plays exist elsewhere in North America and the world. Whether, how, and to what extent SGD diffuses to new shale basins and jurisdictions will depend on several questions about energy policy. The first chapter examines the potential for SGD in the European Union. Among EU institutions, the European Parliament has been the strongest proponent for regulation of SGD, preferring a balance between environmental protection and opportunities for economic development, energy security, and climate mitigation. Analysis of roll call voting on SGD in the Seventh European Parliament shows that ideological preferences are the primary explanation of voting behavior, followed by national interests in decarbonization. Prospects for further regulatory action are discussed. ? The second chapter takes a closer look at the potential of shale gas to facilitate decarbonization in the electricity sector. Proponents of SGD have claimed that high carbon fossil fuels can be immediately phased out and replaced in the short term by power plants that burn cheap, abundant natural gas, which emits half the greenhouse gasses over a well-to-wire life cycle. A value of information analysis examines the conditions under which this may be so and quantifies how valuable it would be to have perfect information about uncertain parameters in a cost function characterizing the global electricity sector. The third chapter is describes a new tool of policy analysis, the Indiana Scalable Energy-Economy Model (IN-SEEM). State and local governments have played an increasing role in energy and climate

  13. Designing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways using Many-Objective Robust Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwakkel, Jan; Haasnoot, Marjolijn

    2017-04-01

    Dealing with climate risks in water management requires confronting a wide variety of deeply uncertain factors, while navigating a many dimensional space of trade-offs amongst objectives. There is an emerging body of literature on supporting this type of decision problem, under the label of decision making under deep uncertainty. Two approaches within this literature are Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. In recent work, these approaches have been compared. One of the main conclusions of this comparison was that they are highly complementary. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making is a model based decision support approach, while Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is primarily a conceptual framework for the design of flexible strategies that can be adapted over time in response to how the future is actually unfolding. In this research we explore this complementarity in more detail. Specifically, we demonstrate how Many-Objective Robust Decision Making can be used to design adaptation pathways. We demonstrate this combined approach using a water management problem, in the Netherlands. The water level of Lake IJselmeer, the main fresh water resource of the Netherlands, is currently managed through discharge by gravity. Due to climate change, this won't be possible in the future, unless water levels are changed. Changing the water level has undesirable flood risk and spatial planning consequences. The challenge is to find promising adaptation pathways that balance objectives related to fresh water supply, flood risk, and spatial issues, while accounting for uncertain climatic and land use change. We conclude that the combination of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is particularly suited for dealing with deeply uncertain climate risks.

  14. The process of construction of evidence: An analysis of the use of indicators in two decisions of innovation policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boavida, N.; Moniz, A.; Laranja, M.

    2016-07-01

    Despite increasing calls for evidence-based policies, knowledge about the practical use of evidences remains limited. This paper studies the process of construction of evidences in decisions of innovation policy to understand how evidences were used. It analysis the use of indicators and other evidences through interviews conducted to inquire about the two decisions: an electric mobility policy and a nanotechnology laboratory. Results show indicators and other evidences were brought to decision processes according to their availability and capacity to support the different interests of the actors and the stakeholders. Their role was influenced by the particular situation of the decision makers. More importantly, the use of persuasive analytical evidences appears to be related with the adversity of the policy context. In addition, research suggests that indicators are one tool among others to foster innovation decisions. In fact, the relatively minor instrumental role of indicators suggests that indicators are mostly a complementary instrument of decision. When used relevantly, indicators can offer support to a decision. But there are other significant influences that need to be taken into account to understand the specific role indicators and other evidences play, such as the social relations of the decision makers and their emotional-intuitive decisions. (Author)

  15. Policy, practice and decision making for zoonotic disease management: water and Cryptosporidium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Zoë; Alcock, Ruth E; Christley, Robert M; Haygarth, Philip M; Heathwaite, A Louise; Latham, Sophia M; Mort, Maggie; Oliver, David M; Pickup, Roger; Wastling, Jonathan M; Wynne, Brian

    2012-04-01

    Decision making for zoonotic disease management should be based on many forms of appropriate data and sources of evidence. However, the criteria and timing for policy response and the resulting management decisions are often altered when a disease outbreak occurs and captures full media attention. In the case of waterborne disease, such as the robust protozoa, Cryptosporidium spp, exposure can cause significant human health risks and preventing exposure by maintaining high standards of biological and chemical water quality remains a priority for water companies in the UK. Little has been documented on how knowledge and information is translated between the many stakeholders involved in the management of Cryptosporidium, which is surprising given the different drivers that have shaped management decisions. Such information, coupled with the uncertainties that surround these data is essential for improving future management strategies that minimise disease outbreaks. Here, we examine the interplay between scientific information, the media, and emergent government and company policies to examine these issues using qualitative and quantitative data relating to Cryptosporidium management decisions by a water company in the North West of England. Our results show that political and media influences are powerful drivers of management decisions if fuelled by high profile outbreaks. Furthermore, the strength of the scientific evidence is often constrained by uncertainties in the data, and in the way knowledge is translated between policy levels during established risk management procedures. In particular, under or over-estimating risk during risk assessment procedures together with uncertainty regarding risk factors within the wider environment, was found to restrict the knowledge-base for decision-making in Cryptosporidium management. Our findings highlight some key current and future challenges facing the management of such diseases that are widely applicable to other

  16. The Hinkley Point decision: An analysis of the policy process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    In 2006, the British government launched a policy to build nuclear power reactors based on a claim that the power produced would be competitive with fossil fuel and would require no public subsidy. A decade later, it is not clear how many, if any, orders will be placed and the claims on costs and subsidies have proved false. Despite this failure to deliver, the policy is still being pursued with undiminished determination. The finance model that is now proposed is seen as a model other European countries can follow so the success or otherwise of the British nuclear programme will have implications outside the UK. This paper contends that the checks and balances that should weed out misguided policies, have failed. It argues that the most serious failure is with the civil service and its inability to provide politicians with high quality advice – truth to power. It concludes that the failure is likely to be due to the unwillingness of politicians to listen to opinions that conflict with their beliefs. Other weaknesses include the lack of energy expertise in the media, the unwillingness of the public to engage in the policy process and the impotence of Parliamentary Committees. - Highlights: •Britain's nuclear power policy is failing due to high costs and problems of finance. •This has implications for European countries who want to use the same financing model. •The continued pursuit of a failing policy is due to poor advice from civil servants. •Lack of expertise in the media and lack of public engagement have contributed. •Parliamentary processes have not provided proper critical scrutiny.

  17. Risk-based emergency decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koerte, Jens

    2003-01-01

    In the present paper we discuss how to assist critical decisions taken under complex, contingent circumstances, with a high degree of uncertainty and short time frames. In such sharp-end decision regimes, standard rule-based decision support systems do not capture the complexity of the situation. At the same time, traditional risk analysis is of little use due to variability in the specific circumstances. How then, can an organisation provide assistance to, e.g. pilots in dealing with such emergencies? A method called 'contingent risk and decision analysis' is presented, to provide decision support for decisions under variable circumstances and short available time scales. The method consists of nine steps of definition, modelling, analysis and criteria definition to be performed 'off-line' by analysts, and procedure generation to transform the analysis result into an operational decision aid. Examples of pilots' decisions in response to sudden vibration in offshore helicopter transport method are used to illustrate the approach

  18. People adopt optimal policies in simple decision-making, after practice and guidance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Nathan J; Brown, Scott D

    2017-04-01

    Organisms making repeated simple decisions are faced with a tradeoff between urgent and cautious strategies. While animals can adopt a statistically optimal policy for this tradeoff, findings about human decision-makers have been mixed. Some studies have shown that people can optimize this "speed-accuracy tradeoff", while others have identified a systematic bias towards excessive caution. These issues have driven theoretical development and spurred debate about the nature of human decision-making. We investigated a potential resolution to the debate, based on two factors that routinely differ between human and animal studies of decision-making: the effects of practice, and of longer-term feedback. Our study replicated the finding that most people, by default, are overly cautious. When given both practice and detailed feedback, people moved rapidly towards the optimal policy, with many participants reaching optimality with less than 1 h of practice. Our findings have theoretical implications for cognitive and neural models of simple decision-making, as well as methodological implications.

  19. A multicriteria decision making approach applied to improving maintenance policies in healthcare organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnero, María Carmen; Gómez, Andrés

    2016-04-23

    Healthcare organizations have far greater maintenance needs for their medical equipment than other organization, as many are used directly with patients. However, the literature on asset management in healthcare organizations is very limited. The aim of this research is to provide more rational application of maintenance policies, leading to an increase in quality of care. This article describes a multicriteria decision-making approach which integrates Markov chains with the multicriteria Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique (MACBETH), to facilitate the best choice of combination of maintenance policies by using the judgements of a multi-disciplinary decision group. The proposed approach takes into account the level of acceptance that a given alternative would have among professionals. It also takes into account criteria related to cost, quality of care and impact of care cover. This multicriteria approach is applied to four dialysis subsystems: patients infected with hepatitis C, infected with hepatitis B, acute and chronic; in all cases, the maintenance strategy obtained consists of applying corrective and preventive maintenance plus two reserve machines. The added value in decision-making practices from this research comes from: (i) integrating the use of Markov chains to obtain the alternatives to be assessed by a multicriteria methodology; (ii) proposing the use of MACBETH to make rational decisions on asset management in healthcare organizations; (iii) applying the multicriteria approach to select a set or combination of maintenance policies in four dialysis subsystems of a health care organization. In the multicriteria decision making approach proposed, economic criteria have been used, related to the quality of care which is desired for patients (availability), and the acceptance that each alternative would have considering the maintenance and healthcare resources which exist in the organization, with the inclusion of a

  20. Simulation-based algorithms for Markov decision processes

    CERN Document Server

    Chang, Hyeong Soo; Fu, Michael C; Marcus, Steven I

    2013-01-01

    Markov decision process (MDP) models are widely used for modeling sequential decision-making problems that arise in engineering, economics, computer science, and the social sciences.  Many real-world problems modeled by MDPs have huge state and/or action spaces, giving an opening to the curse of dimensionality and so making practical solution of the resulting models intractable.  In other cases, the system of interest is too complex to allow explicit specification of some of the MDP model parameters, but simulation samples are readily available (e.g., for random transitions and costs). For these settings, various sampling and population-based algorithms have been developed to overcome the difficulties of computing an optimal solution in terms of a policy and/or value function.  Specific approaches include adaptive sampling, evolutionary policy iteration, evolutionary random policy search, and model reference adaptive search. This substantially enlarged new edition reflects the latest developments in novel ...

  1. Public Discourse in Energy Policy Decision-Making: Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Idaho Citizen; Eileen DeShazo; John Freemuth; Tina Giannini; Troy Hall; Ann Hunter; Jeffrey C. Joe; Michael Louis; Carole Nemnich; Jennie Newman; Steven J. Piet; Stephen Sorensen; Paulina Starkey; Kendelle Vogt; Patrick Wilson

    2010-08-01

    The ground is littered with projects that failed because of strong public opposition, including natural gas and coal power plants proposed in Idaho over the past several years. This joint project , of the Idaho National Laboratory, Boise State University, Idaho State University and University of Idaho has aimed to add to the tool box to reduce project risk through encouraging the public to engage in more critical thought and be more actively involved in public or social issues. Early in a project, project managers and decision-makers can talk with no one, pro and con stakeholder groups, or members of the public. Experience has shown that talking with no one outside of the project incurs high risk because opposition stakeholders have many means to stop most (if not all) energy projects. Talking with organized stakeholder groups provides some risk reduction from mutual learning, but organized groups tend not to change positions except under conditions of a negotiated settlement. Achieving a negotiated settlement may be impossible. Furthermore, opposition often arises outside pre-existing groups. Standard public polling provides some information but does not reveal underlying motivations, intensity of attitudes, etc. Improved methods are needed that probe deeper into stakeholder (organized groups and members of the public) values and beliefs/heuristics to increase the potential for change of opinions and/or out-of-box solutions. The term “heuristics” refers to the mental short-cuts, underlying beliefs, and paradigms that everyone uses to filter and interpret information, to interpret what is around us, and to guide our actions and decisions. This document is the final report of a 3-year effort to test different public discourse methods in the subject area of energy policy decision-making. We analyzed 504 mail-in surveys and 80 participants in groups on the Boise State University campus for their preference, financial support, and evaluations of eight attributes

  2. Fuzziness and fuzzy modelling in Bulgaria's energy policy decision-making dilemma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xingquan

    2006-01-01

    The decision complexity resulting from imprecision in decision variables and parameters, a major difficulty for conventional decision analysis methods, can be relevantly analysed and modelled by fuzzy logic. Bulgaria's nuclear policy decision-making process implicates such complexity of imprecise nature: stakeholders, criteria, measurement, etc. Given the suitable applicability of fuzzy logic in this case, this article tries to offer a concrete fuzzy paradigm including delimitation of decision space, quantification of imprecise variables, and, of course, parameterisation. (author)

  3. Addressing preference heterogeneity in public health policy by combining Cluster Analysis and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaltoft, Mette Kjer; Turner, Robin; Cunich, Michelle

    2015-01-01

    The use of subgroups based on biological-clinical and socio-demographic variables to deal with population heterogeneity is well-established in public policy. The use of subgroups based on preferences is rare, except when religion based, and controversial. If it were decided to treat subgroup...... preferences as valid determinants of public policy, a transparent analytical procedure is needed. In this proof of method study we show how public preferences could be incorporated into policy decisions in a way that respects both the multi-criterial nature of those decisions, and the heterogeneity...... techniques of CA to demonstrate that not only do different techniques produce different clusters, but that choosing among techniques (as well as developing the MCDA structure) is an important task to be undertaken in implementing the approach outlined in any specific policy context. Data for the illustrative...

  4. Renewable electricity production costs-A framework to assist policy-makers' decisions on price support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dinica, Valentina

    2011-01-01

    Despite recent progress, the production costs for renewable electricity remain above those for conventional power. Expectations of continuous reductions in production costs, typically underpin governments' policies for financial support. They often draw on the technology-focused versions of the Experience Curve model. This paper discusses how national-contextual factors also have a strong influence on production costs, such as geographic, infrastructural, institutional, and resource factors. As technologies mature, and as they reach significant levels of diffusion nationally, sustained increases in production costs might be recorded, due to these nationally contextual factors, poorly accounted for in policy-making decisions for price support. The paper suggests an analytical framework for a more comprehensive understanding of production costs. Based on this, it recommends that the evolution of specific cost levels and factors be monitored to locate 'sources of changes'. The paper also suggests policy instruments that governments may use to facilitate cost decreases, whenever possible. The application of the framework is illustrated for the diffusion of wind power in Spain during the past three decades. - Highlights: → Models, frameworks for policy-making on price support for renewable electricity production costs. → Policy instruments to help reduce production costs. → Limits to the influence of policies of production costs reductions.

  5. From Population Databases to Research and Informed Health Decisions and Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yossy Machluf

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundIn the era of big data, the medical community is inspired to maximize the utilization and processing of the rapidly expanding medical datasets for clinical-related and policy-driven research. This requires a medical database that can be aggregated, interpreted, and integrated at both the individual and population levels. Policymakers seek data as a lever for wise, evidence-based decision-making and information-driven policy. Yet, bridging the gap between data collection, research, and policymaking, is a major challenge.The modelTo bridge this gap, we propose a four-step model: (A creating a conjoined task force of all relevant parties to declare a national program to promote collaborations; (B promoting a national digital records project, or at least a network of synchronized and integrated databases, in an accessible transparent manner; (C creating an interoperative national research environment to enable the analysis of the organized and integrated data and to generate evidence; and (D utilizing the evidence to improve decision-making, to support a wisely chosen national policy. For the latter purpose, we also developed a novel multidimensional set of criteria to illuminate insights and estimate the risk for future morbidity based on current medical conditions.ConclusionUsed by policymakers, providers of health plans, caregivers, and health organizations, we presume this model will assist transforming evidence generation to support the design of health policy and programs, as well as improved decision-making about health and health care, at all levels: individual, communal, organizational, and national.

  6. Staged decision making based on probabilistic forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booister, Nikéh; Verkade, Jan; Werner, Micha; Cranston, Michael; Cumiskey, Lydia; Zevenbergen, Chris

    2016-04-01

    Flood forecasting systems reduce, but cannot eliminate uncertainty about the future. Probabilistic forecasts explicitly show that uncertainty remains. However, as - compared to deterministic forecasts - a dimension is added ('probability' or 'likelihood'), with this added dimension decision making is made slightly more complicated. A technique of decision support is the cost-loss approach, which defines whether or not to issue a warning or implement mitigation measures (risk-based method). With the cost-loss method a warning will be issued when the ratio of the response costs to the damage reduction is less than or equal to the probability of the possible flood event. This cost-loss method is not widely used, because it motivates based on only economic values and is a technique that is relatively static (no reasoning, yes/no decision). Nevertheless it has high potential to improve risk-based decision making based on probabilistic flood forecasting because there are no other methods known that deal with probabilities in decision making. The main aim of this research was to explore the ways of making decision making based on probabilities with the cost-loss method better applicable in practice. The exploration began by identifying other situations in which decisions were taken based on uncertain forecasts or predictions. These cases spanned a range of degrees of uncertainty: from known uncertainty to deep uncertainty. Based on the types of uncertainties, concepts of dealing with situations and responses were analysed and possible applicable concepts where chosen. Out of this analysis the concepts of flexibility and robustness appeared to be fitting to the existing method. Instead of taking big decisions with bigger consequences at once, the idea is that actions and decisions are cut-up into smaller pieces and finally the decision to implement is made based on economic costs of decisions and measures and the reduced effect of flooding. The more lead-time there is in

  7. The Final Beneficiaries are Actors Active Little and Influential in Decisions on Public Policy in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diolina Rodrigues Santiago Silva

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Public policies are government programs that directly influence the citizens' lives. In the formulation and implementation of these policies, there is the presence of political and private actors. The final beneficiaries are between different types of private actors. Some laws require the government listen to society at the time of decision-making in public policy and in national conferences and public consultations. The final beneficiaries, actual users of these public policies have to reach some mechanisms of direct participation in the formulation of these policies, but the number of participants is smaller and doesn't influence in making government decisions.

  8. Decision-making based on emotional images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katahira, Kentaro; Fujimura, Tomomi; Okanoya, Kazuo; Okada, Masato

    2011-01-01

    The emotional outcome of a choice affects subsequent decision making. While the relationship between decision making and emotion has attracted attention, studies on emotion and decision making have been independently developed. In this study, we investigated how the emotional valence of pictures, which was stochastically contingent on participants' choices, influenced subsequent decision making. In contrast to traditional value-based decision-making studies that used money or food as a reward, the "reward value" of the decision outcome, which guided the update of value for each choice, is unknown beforehand. To estimate the reward value of emotional pictures from participants' choice data, we used reinforcement learning models that have successfully been used in previous studies for modeling value-based decision making. Consequently, we found that the estimated reward value was asymmetric between positive and negative pictures. The negative reward value of negative pictures (relative to neutral pictures) was larger in magnitude than the positive reward value of positive pictures. This asymmetry was not observed in valence for an individual picture, which was rated by the participants regarding the emotion experienced upon viewing it. These results suggest that there may be a difference between experienced emotion and the effect of the experienced emotion on subsequent behavior. Our experimental and computational paradigm provides a novel way for quantifying how and what aspects of emotional events affect human behavior. The present study is a first step toward relating a large amount of knowledge in emotion science and in taking computational approaches to value-based decision making.

  9. Confession and Carrying into Execution of Foreign Arbitration Courts' Decisions: Reciprocity and Public Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarina, Salima A.; Nukusheva, Aigul A.; Kalmagambetov, Kassym S.; Kumysbekova, Zhanara T.; Nesterova, Elena V.

    2016-01-01

    The article contains a comparative analysis of foreign arbitration courts' decisions, ensuring the reciprocity and public policy. The aim of the study is to explore such aspects as reciprocity and public policy of arbitration courts. The result is the view of the public policy, despite its apparent irrelevance in today's Kazakhstan, which is of…

  10. Reasoning in explanation-based decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennington, N; Hastie, R

    1993-01-01

    A general theory of explanation-based decision making is outlined and the multiple roles of inference processes in the theory are indicated. A typology of formal and informal inference forms, originally proposed by Collins (1978a, 1978b), is introduced as an appropriate framework to represent inferences that occur in the overarching explanation-based process. Results from the analysis of verbal reports of decision processes are presented to demonstrate the centrality and systematic character of reasoning in a representative legal decision-making task.

  11. Designing Observation and Modeling Systems to Inform Decisions and Policies on Freshwater Objectives in New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baisden, W. T.; Ellis, T.; Rissman, C.; Moore, C.; Matthews, A.

    2016-12-01

    Declines in New Zealand's freshwater quality have led to legislation - the 2014 National Policy Statement on Freshwater Management (NPS-FM) - which requires regional governments to set "objectives" and design policies accordingly. In most regions, increases in freshwater contaminants are derived largely from intensifying agriculture and come as nitrogen, phosphorous or sediment, or a combination thereof. Here, the development and application of N and O isotopes as natural tracers for nitrate is examined as a case study, in the context of a wider hierarchy of observations such as N concentrations, flow and broader hydrochemistry used for NPS-FM implementation. The analysis of N and O isotopes in nitrate provides specific information on sources and removal processes that cannot be obtained by other measurements. Yet, despite considerable development of the technical methodology and environment-specific interpretation, application of measurements has faced barriers. Many may be typical of science in a small advanced nation with a population of 4.5 million, but others are unique due to New Zealand's limited rural population base and large diversity in physical geography, as well as a unique economic reliance on highly productive pastoral agricultural systems. Seventeen different regional governments are empowered to regulate in ways consistent with local consultation and democracy within their catchment boundaries, but with limited resources to align highly technical observational data to policies and decisions, as well as supporting models. The resulting gaps in communication and technical capability combine with a diversity of approaches to pose both challenges and opportunities for development and application of hierarchical observation systems. Success appears to lie in ensuring decision frameworks can be `mapped', so that different frameworks can be compared, and the benefits of sophisticated observations understood directly in relation to influence on regional

  12. Decision support tool to evaluate alternative policies regulating wind integration into autonomous energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zouros, N.; Contaxis, G.C.; Kabouris, J.

    2005-01-01

    Integration of wind power into autonomous electricity systems strongly depends on the specific technical characteristics of these systems; the regulations applied should take into account physical system constraints. Introduction of market rules makes the issue even more complicated since the interests of the market participants often conflict each other. In this paper, an integrated tool for the comparative assessment of alternative regulatory policies is presented along with a methodology for decision-making, based on alternative scenarios analysis. The social welfare concept is followed instead of the traditional Least Cost Planning

  13. Probabilistic Decision Tools for Determining Impacts of Agricultural Development Policy on Household Nutrition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitney, Cory W.; Lanzanova, Denis; Muchiri, Caroline; Shepherd, Keith D.; Rosenstock, Todd S.; Krawinkel, Michael; Tabuti, John R. S.; Luedeling, Eike

    2018-03-01

    Governments around the world have agreed to end hunger and food insecurity and to improve global nutrition, largely through changes to agriculture and food systems. However, they are faced with a lot of uncertainty when making policy decisions, since any agricultural changes will influence social and biophysical systems, which could yield either positive or negative nutrition outcomes. We outline a holistic probability modeling approach with Bayesian Network (BN) models for nutritional impacts resulting from agricultural development policy. The approach includes the elicitation of expert knowledge for impact model development, including sensitivity analysis and value of information calculations. It aims at a generalizable methodology that can be applied in a wide range of contexts. To showcase this approach, we develop an impact model of Vision 2040, Uganda's development strategy, which, among other objectives, seeks to transform the country's agricultural landscape from traditional systems to large-scale commercial agriculture. Model results suggest that Vision 2040 is likely to have negative outcomes for the rural livelihoods it intends to support; it may have no appreciable influence on household hunger but, by influencing preferences for and access to quality nutritional foods, may increase the prevalence of micronutrient deficiency. The results highlight the trade-offs that must be negotiated when making decisions regarding agriculture for nutrition, and the capacity of BNs to make these trade-offs explicit. The work illustrates the value of BNs for supporting evidence-based agricultural development decisions.

  14. Fair play in energy policy decisions: Procedural fairness, outcome fairness and acceptance of the decision to rebuild nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Visschers, Vivianne H.M.; Siegrist, Michael

    2012-01-01

    To raise public acceptance of new energy policies, promoting the fairness of the outcomes and of the decision-making procedure has been suggested. Very few studies have examined the role of fairness in public acceptance of rebuilding nuclear power plants. Therefore, using a large mail survey, we investigated the public’s acceptance of the decision to rebuild nuclear power plants in Switzerland by 2020. The study examined the influence of procedural fairness and outcome fairness on the acceptance of this decision, as well as other factors such as risk perception and benefit perception. Additionally, we investigated the moderating influence of general attitudes towards nuclear power on the relation between fairness and decision acceptance. Results indicated that outcome fairness strongly increased decision acceptance, along with general attitudes towards nuclear power and perceived economic benefits. Procedural fairness had only a small impact on decision acceptance. The influence of fairness on decision acceptance did not seem to depend on general nuclear attitudes. Our findings imply that, in the case of rebuilding nuclear power plants, perceived benefits and outcome fairness are important determinants of acceptance of the decision, while procedural fairness only has a limited impact. - Highlights: ► We investigated the role of fairness in the acceptance of a nuclear policy decision. ► Outcome fairness strongly influenced decision acceptance regarding nuclear power plants. ► The role of procedural fairness was relatively small in this respect. ► Also, nuclear attitudes and perceived economic benefits affected decision acceptance. ► Outcome fairness seems more relevant for decision acceptance than procedural fairness.

  15. Progress towards and barriers to implementation of a risk framework for US federal wildland fire policy and decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    David C. Calkin; Mark A. Finney; Alan A. Ager; Matthew P. Thompson; Krista M. Gebert

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we review progress towards the implementation of a riskmanagement framework for US federal wildland fire policy and operations. We first describe new developments in wildfire simulation technology that catalyzed the development of risk-based decision support systems for strategic wildfire management. These systems include new analytical methods to measure...

  16. A hierarchical decision aid in a debate on national energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Seppaelaeinen, T.; Oehladt, K.; Ruusunen, J.

    1985-12-01

    A wide public depate on the future energy policy of Finland has been going on for the past few years, and at the moment the discussion is centered around the question whether a new nuclear power plant should be built or not. To clarify the differences between anti-nuclear and pro-nuclear opinions, a decision analysis of the issue was conducted with a microcomputer-based decision aid which utilizes the Analytic Hierarchy Process. The participants representing the opposite opinions were the Minister of Finance and a chief industrial executive. This paper presents the preference profiles of the participants and sensitivity analyses of the results, and discusses the implications of the results for the depate. Essential sources of opinion differences are pointed out and a deeper understanding of the issue is gained. This enables focusing the depate on the critical questions and elimination of less important criteria, which otherwise might receive disproportonate attention

  17. Systematic environmental monitoring model for decision in Public Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jair Cunha Cardoso Filho

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Addresses the existing interdisciplinary between Information Science and public policies, and proposes to environmental monitoring tool as a relevant tool for improving the process of evaluating the effectiveness of these social policies and social programs, there included the legislative branch, through the collection, processing and provision of information allowing to identify the environmental changes and propose, consistently, the improvement of public policies that meet the demands of citizens.

  18. [Social participation in mental health: space of construction of citizenship, policy formulation and decision making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guimarães, José Maria Ximenes; Jorge, Maria Salete Bessa; Maia, Regina Claudia Furtado; de Oliveira, Lucia Conde; Morais, Ana Patrícia Pereira; Lima, Marcos Paulo de Oliveira; Assis, Marluce Maria Araújo; dos Santos, Adriano Maia

    2010-07-01

    The article approaches the comprehension of professionals that act in the mental health area about the movement of construction of social participation in the health system of Fortaleza, Ceará State. The methodology adopted is based upon qualitative approach. The study was developed with semi-structured interviews with 17 mental health professionals of the city above mentioned. The empirical data was analyzed through the technique of thematic content analysis, where it was identified three cores of analysis: social participation as space of citizenship and policy formulation; oriented to attention of collective needs; and decision taking. The study reveals that social participation represents a possibility of amplifying X the relations between the Civil Society and the State, which makes possible the social intervention in proposals of the health policies. It is highlighted the right to health linked to the consolidation of democracy in the attention to the needs and collective edification.

  19. Do economic policy decisions affect stock market development in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Efficient Market Hypothesis proposes that macroeconomic policy actions do not influence stock market development but the Tobin's q theory argues otherwise. This paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to investigate the impact of macroeconomic policy on the development of the Ghana Stock ...

  20. Decision making based on emotional images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kentaro eKatahira

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The emotional outcome of a choice affects subsequent decision making. While the relationship between decision making and emotion has attracted attention, studies on emotion and decision making have been independently developed. In this study, we investigated how the emotional valence of pictures, which was stochastically contingent on participants’ choices, influenced subsequent decision making. In contrast to traditional value-based decision-making studies that used money or food as a reward, the reward value of the decision outcome, which guided the update of value for each choice, is unknown beforehand. To estimate the reward value of emotional pictures from participants’ choice data, we used reinforcement learning models that have success- fully been used in previous studies for modeling value-based decision making. Consequently, we found that the estimated reward value was asymmetric between positive and negative pictures. The negative reward value of negative pictures (relative to neutral pictures was larger in magnitude than the positive reward value of positive pictures. This asymmetry was not observed in valence for an individual picture, which was rated by the participants regarding the emotion experienced upon viewing it. These results suggest that there may be a difference between experienced emotion and the effect of the experienced emotion on subsequent behavior. Our experimental and computational paradigm provides a novel way for quantifying how and what aspects of emotional events affect human behavior. The present study is a first step toward relating a large amount of knowledge in emotion science and in taking computational approaches to value-based decision making.

  1. Changing foreign policy: the Obama Administration’s decision to oust Mubarak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria do Céu Pinto Arena

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper analyses the decision of the Obama administration to redirect its foreign policy towards Egypt in the wake of the Arab Spring. It attempts to highlight the issue of how governments deal with decision-making at times of crisis, and under which circumstances they take critical decisions that lead to major shifts in their foreign policy track record. It focuses on the process that led to a reassessment of US (United States foreign policy, shifting from decades of support to the autocratic regime of Hosni Mubarak, towards backing his ouster. Specifically, the paper attempts to assess to what extent the decision to withdraw US support from a longstanding state-leader and ally in the Middle East can be seen as a foreign policy change (FPC. A relevant research question this paper pursues is: how can the withdrawal of US support to a regime considered as an ally be considered, in itself, as a radical FPC?

  2. Heuristic and optimal policy computations in the human brain during sequential decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korn, Christoph W; Bach, Dominik R

    2018-01-23

    Optimal decisions across extended time horizons require value calculations over multiple probabilistic future states. Humans may circumvent such complex computations by resorting to easy-to-compute heuristics that approximate optimal solutions. To probe the potential interplay between heuristic and optimal computations, we develop a novel sequential decision-making task, framed as virtual foraging in which participants have to avoid virtual starvation. Rewards depend only on final outcomes over five-trial blocks, necessitating planning over five sequential decisions and probabilistic outcomes. Here, we report model comparisons demonstrating that participants primarily rely on the best available heuristic but also use the normatively optimal policy. FMRI signals in medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) relate to heuristic and optimal policies and associated choice uncertainties. Crucially, reaction times and dorsal MPFC activity scale with discrepancies between heuristic and optimal policies. Thus, sequential decision-making in humans may emerge from integration between heuristic and optimal policies, implemented by controllers in MPFC.

  3. The effect of OPEC policy decisions on oil and stock prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guidi, Marco G.D.; Russell, Alexander; Tarbert, Heather

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents evidence of the effects of OPEC policy decisions on the US and UK stock markets, as well as on oil prices, during periods of conflict and non-conflict from 1986 to 2004. The outcomes of this study are potentially valuable in assessing future strategies for OPEC policy decisions on oil production targets for its Members. This paper also adds to the strong body of evidence supporting the hypothesis that market returns are influenced by factors that affect business conditions, such as oil price shocks. The key findings are that there are asymmetric reactions to OPEC policy decisions during conflict periods for the US and UK stock markets. During conflict periods, oil markets require time to incorporate OPEC decisions. Conversely, in non-conflict periods the evidence suggests that the oil markets incorporate OPEC decisions efficiently. (Author)

  4. Decision Network for Blue Green Solutions to Influence Policy Impact Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mijic, A.; Theodoropoulos, G.; El Hattab, M. H.; Brown, K.

    2017-12-01

    Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SuDS) deliver ecosystems services that can potentially yield multiple benefits to the urban environment. These benefits can be achieved through optimising SUDS' integration with the local environment and water resources, creating so-called Blue Green Solutions (BGS). The BGS paradigm, however, presents several challenges, in particular quantifying the benefits and creating the scientific evidence-base that can persuade high-level decision-makers and stakeholders to implement BGS at large scale. This work presents the development of the easily implemented and tailored-made approach that allows a robust assessment of the BGS co-benefits, and can influence the types of information that are included in policy impact assessments. The Analytic Network Process approach is used to synthesise the available evidence on the co-benefits of the BGS. The approach enables mapping the interactions between individual BGS selection criteria, and creates a platform to assess the synergetic benefits that arise from components interactions. By working with Government departments and other public and private sector stakeholders, this work has produced a simple decision criteria-based network that will enable the co-benefits and trade-offs of BGS to be quantified and integrated into UK policy appraisals.

  5. Risk informed decisions and regulations - STUK's policy and current practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Julin, A.; Niemalae, I.; Virolainen, R.

    2001-01-01

    Consideration of severe accidents beyond the traditional design basis, including full core melt accidents, has become an important ingredient of regulatory process in Finland. Accordingly, plant-specific level-1 and level-2 PSA studies are a regulatory requirement. These studies are being used in a living fashion both at the utilities and STUK. Plant specific living PSAs have been completed for all operating Finnish plants, including internal initiators, fires, flooding, harsh weather conditions seismic events for operation mode and internal events for low power mode. Many specific applications of the Living PSA have already been introduced but some are still waiting for further development such as Risk Informed ISI, IST and Tech Specs. Examples of safety issues, for which the PSA insights give an improved basis for decisions, are approvals of plant modifications and resolution of testing, inspection and maintenance strategies. PSA insights are also of value in assessing meaningfulness of requirements which are based on traditional engineering judgement but do not form an essential part of defence-in-depth concept. Examples of such requirements are details of safety classification and many Technical Specification requirements. STUK has recently conducted a pilot study on risk-informed ISI. The aim of the study was to explore how the plant specific PSAs could best be used for assessment of the ISI programmes. This paper discusses the findings obtained during the pilot study on risk-informed ISI of pipings. The study produced essential insights of the applied method. Furthermore, the study gave guidance to extract items for further development. Based on these results and overall experience the general suitability of the method for further application is evaluated. (author)

  6. Real Decision Support for Health Insurance Policy Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Roger M

    2016-03-01

    We report on an ongoing project to develop data-driven tools to help individuals make better choices about health insurance and to better understand the range of costs to which they are exposed under different health plans. We describe a simulation tool that we developed to evaluate the likely usage and costs for an individual and family under a wide range of health service usage outcomes, but that can be tailored to specific physicians and the needs of the user and to reflect the demographics and other special attributes of the family. The simulator can accommodate, for example, specific known physician visits or planned procedures, while also generating statistically reasonable "unexpected" events like ER visits or catastrophic diagnoses. On the other hand, if a user provides only a small amount of information (e.g., just information about the family members), the simulator makes a number of generic assumptions regarding physician usage, etc., based on the age, gender, and other features of the family. Data to parameterize all of these events is informed by a combination of the information provided by the user and a series of specialized databases that we have compiled based on publicly available government data and commercial data as well as our own analysis of this initially very coarse and rigid data. To demonstrate both the subtlety of choosing a healthcare plan and the degree to which the simulator can aid in such evaluations, we present sample results using real insurance plans and two example policy shoppers with different demographics and healthcare needs.

  7. Designing evaluation studies to optimally inform policy: what factors do policy-makers in China consider when making resource allocation decisions on healthcare worker training programmes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Shishi; Legido-Quigley, Helena; Spencer, Julia; Coker, Richard James; Khan, Mishal Sameer

    2018-02-23

    In light of the gap in evidence to inform future resource allocation decisions about healthcare provider (HCP) training in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and the considerable donor investments being made towards training interventions, evaluation studies that are optimally designed to inform local policy-makers are needed. The aim of our study is to understand what features of HCP training evaluation studies are important for decision-making by policy-makers in LMICs. We investigate the extent to which evaluations based on the widely used Kirkpatrick model - focusing on direct outcomes of training, namely reaction of trainees, learning, behaviour change and improvements in programmatic health indicators - align with policy-makers' evidence needs for resource allocation decisions. We use China as a case study where resource allocation decisions about potential scale-up (using domestic funding) are being made about an externally funded pilot HCP training programme. Qualitative data were collected from high-level officials involved in resource allocation at the national and provincial level in China through ten face-to-face, in-depth interviews and two focus group discussions consisting of ten participants each. Data were analysed manually using an interpretive thematic analysis approach. Our study indicates that Chinese officials not only consider information about the direct outcomes of a training programme, as captured in the Kirkpatrick model, but also need information on the resources required to implement the training, the wider or indirect impacts of training, and the sustainability and scalability to other settings within the country. In addition to considering findings presented in evaluation studies, we found that Chinese policy-makers pay close attention to whether the evaluations were robust and to the composition of the evaluation team. Our qualitative study indicates that training programme evaluations that focus narrowly on direct training

  8. French policy in the nuclear industry and last governmental decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maillard, Dominique

    1999-01-01

    In the wake of the first oil shock, France embarked on an energy policy aimed at strengthening the long-term security of its supplies. French Government has confirmed the continuation of the nuclear power option as an essential component of French energy policy and in the interests of energy self-sufficiency and environmental concerns. The Government is also ready to work actively and seriously on diversifying France's electricity supply

  9. Utility of Policy Capturing as an Approach to Graduate Admissions Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Frank L.; And Others

    1978-01-01

    The present study examined and evaluated the application of linear policy-capturing models to the real-world decision task of graduate admissions. Utility of the policy-capturing models was great enough to be of practical significance, and least-squares weights showed no predictive advantage over equal weights. (Author/CTM)

  10. What Policy Actors Seek for: Reciprocal Misunderstanding of Objectives of Participatory Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Birutė PITRĖNAITĖ-ŽILĖNIENĖ; Birutė MIKULSKIENĖ

    2013-01-01

    The goal of this research is to explore different policy actors’ attitudes towards participation in public decision making. The paper examines objectives of external participants’ involvement and compares various participants’ judgements on the process and results of participation. We screened operation of formal networks of participatory decision making at the Lithuanian Ministries of Health and Education & Science. The research revealed the willingness of decision makers to allow different ...

  11. A condition-based maintenance policy for stochastically deteriorating systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grall, A.; Berenguer, C.; Dieulle, L.

    2002-01-01

    We focus on the analytical modeling of a condition-based inspection/replacement policy for a stochastically and continuously deteriorating single-unit system. We consider both the replacement threshold and the inspection schedule as decision variables for this maintenance problem and we propose to implement the maintenance policy using a multi-level control-limit rule. In order to assess the performance of the proposed maintenance policy and to minimize the long run expected maintenance cost per unit time, a mathematical model for the maintained system cost is derived, supported by the existence of a stationary law for the maintained system state. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the proposed policy and confirm that the maintenance cost rate on an infinite horizon can be minimized by a joint optimization of the maintenance structure thresholds, or equivalently by a joint optimization of a system replacement threshold and the aperiodic inspection schedule

  12. Using Markov Decision Processes with Heterogeneous Queueing Systems to Examine Military MEDEVAC Dispatching Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-23

    POLICIES THESIS Presented to the Faculty Department of Operational Sciences Graduate School of Engineering and Management Air Force Institute of Technology...dispatching policy and three practitioner-friendly myopic baseline policies. Two computational experiments, a two-level, five-factor screening design and a...over, an open question exists concerning the best exact solution approach for solving Markov decision problems due to recent advances in performance by

  13. Communication among scientists, decision makers and society: Developing policy-relevant global climate change research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernabo, J.C.

    1995-01-01

    Defining the research most relevant to policy is not simply a technical task that can be answered by scientists. Decision makers need and value information differently than curiosity-driven scientists. In order to link science more effectively to policy, the two communities must gain a greater mutual understanding. Decision makers must define their needs so that scientists can determine how, and by when, research can address these needs. This vital dialogue between communities typically has been more ad hoc than systematic. The complexity and urgency of the global climate change issue necessitate ongoing communication between scientists and decision makers on the information needed for policy development and what research can provide The results of relevant science policy dialogues are discussed herein. Effective communication between researchers and decision makers is a crucial ingredient for successfully addressing society's pressing environmental concerns. The increase in policy makers' demands for research that is relevant to solving societal issues highlights the communication gap between the technical and policy communities. The gap, largely caused by lack of mutual understanding, results in flawed and inadequate communication that hinders decision making and confuses the public. This paper examines the cause of this communication gap and describes the significance of recent efforts to develop more fruitful science-policy dialogues on the issue of global climate change. First, the post-Cold War shift in government priorities for research funding is described; then the underlying relationship between science and policy is explored to identify key sources of ongoing mis-communication. The paper then explains the importance of defining policy-relevant science questions that research can address. Finally, three projects are described involving the elicitation of decision makers' information needs in The United States, The Netherlands, and internationally

  14. Directory Enabled Policy Based Networking; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    KELIIAA, CURTIS M.

    2001-01-01

    This report presents a discussion of directory-enabled policy-based networking with an emphasis on its role as the foundation for securely scalable enterprise networks. A directory service provides the object-oriented logical environment for interactive cyber-policy implementation. Cyber-policy implementation includes security, network management, operational process and quality of service policies. The leading network-technology vendors have invested in these technologies for secure universal connectivity that transverses Internet, extranet and intranet boundaries. Industry standards are established that provide the fundamental guidelines for directory deployment scalable to global networks. The integration of policy-based networking with directory-service technologies provides for intelligent management of the enterprise network environment as an end-to-end system of related clients, services and resources. This architecture allows logical policies to protect data, manage security and provision critical network services permitting a proactive defense-in-depth cyber-security posture. Enterprise networking imposes the consideration of supporting multiple computing platforms, sites and business-operation models. An industry-standards based approach combined with principled systems engineering in the deployment of these technologies allows these issues to be successfully addressed. This discussion is focused on a directory-based policy architecture for the heterogeneous enterprise network-computing environment and does not propose specific vendor solutions. This document is written to present practical design methodology and provide an understanding of the risks, complexities and most important, the benefits of directory-enabled policy-based networking

  15. Interdependencies Between the Capital Market and the Monetary Policy Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Guni

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The declared scope of this work is to highlight the main correlations between the monetary and the capital market, including identifying the adequate objective of monetary policy which might positively influence over the offer on the capital market. The main target of the monetary market consists in the stability of the prices. The link between monetary policy and stock market is extremely important. The stock prices are sensible to economical conditions. Moreover, these prices rapidly change, thus there is a chance for a deviation from the fundamental value, with side-effects for economy.

  16. Public health policy decisions on medical innovations: what role can early economic evaluation play?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartz, Susanne; John, Jürgen

    2009-02-01

    Our contribution aims to explore the different ways in which early economic data can inform public health policy decisions on new medical technologies. A literature research was conducted to detect methodological contributions covering the health policy perspective. Early economic data on new technologies can support public health policy decisions in several ways. Embedded in horizon scanning and HTA activities, it adds to monitoring and assessment of innovations. It can play a role in the control of technology diffusion by informing coverage and reimbursement decisions as well as the direct public promotion of healthcare technologies, leading to increased efficiency. Major problems include the uncertainty related to economic data at early stages as well as the timing of the evaluation of an innovation. Decision-makers can benefit from the information supplied by early economic data, but the actual use in practice is difficult to determine. Further empirical evidence should be gathered, while the use could be promoted by further standardization.

  17. Decision Making Policies and Worker Influence in Employee Owned Firms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammer, Tove Helland

    A study of a small employee-owned furniture company indicated that the three occupational groups agreed that management should have more influence in decisions affecting the future of the organization. On the other hand, issues which would directly affect employee welfare are seen as areas where control should be fairly evenly divided, with…

  18. Do Economic Policy Decisions affect Stock Market Development in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    IMF (2006) firms this up by reporting that out of the world's GDP of $41.3 trillion in ... implications on stock returns. He therefore ... Laopodis (2006) theoretically explain that the outcomes of fiscal policy actions (budget deficits ... issues, political stability, international relations, balance-of-payment situation and others and.

  19. Health technology assessment, value-based decision making, and innovation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henshall, Chris; Schuller, Tara

    2013-10-01

    Identifying treatments that offer value and value for money is becoming increasingly important, with interest in how health technology assessment (HTA) and decision makers can take appropriate account of what is of value to patients and to society, and in the relationship between innovation and assessments of value. This study summarizes points from an Health Technology Assessment International (HTAi) Policy Forum discussion, drawing on presentations, discussions among attendees, and background papers. Various perspectives on value were considered; most place patient health at the core of value. Wider elements of value comprise other benefits for: patients; caregivers; the health and social care systems; and society. Most decision-making systems seek to take account of similar elements of value, although they are assessed and combined in different ways. Judgment in decisions remains important and cannot be replaced by mathematical approaches. There was discussion of the value of innovation and of the effects of value assessments on innovation. Discussion also included moving toward "progressive health system decision making," an ongoing process whereby evidence-based decisions on use would be made at various stages in the technology lifecycle. Five actions are identified: (i) development of a general framework for the definition and assessment of value; development by HTA/coverage bodies and regulators of (ii) disease-specific guidance and (iii) further joint scientific advice for industry on demonstrating value; (iv) development of a framework for progressive licensing, usage, and reimbursement; and (v) promoting work to better adapt HTA, coverage, and procurement approaches to medical devices.

  20. Policy processes and decision making of environmental policy in Great Britain and France. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schreiber, H.

    1991-01-01

    Research of central aspects of British environmental policy. This report concentrates on the role of the constitutional system of environmental policy, on the evaluation of a growing of 'Green Policy' in Great Britain, on the central problems of environmental policy and finally on the role of international environmental policy for Great Britain and Great Britain's role in international environmental activities. Beyond that this report contains a presentation of the state of the British environment (Pollution: Air, Water, Waste, Soil; Radioactivity and Noise). (orig.) With 205 refs., 18 tabs., 14 figs [de

  1. An exploratory study identifying where local government public health decision makers source their evidence for policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoneham, Melissa; Dodds, James

    2014-08-01

    The Western Australian (WA) Public Health Bill will replace the antiquated Health Act 1911. One of the proposed clauses of the Bill requires all WA local governments to develop a Public Health Plan. The Bill states that Public Health Plans should be based on evidence from all levels, including national and statewide priorities, community needs, local statistical evidence, and stakeholder data. This exploratory study, which targeted 533 WA local government officers, aimed to identify the sources of evidence used to generate the list of public health risks to be included in local government Public Health Plans. The top four sources identified for informing local policy were: observation of the consequences of the risks in the local community (24.5%), statewide evidence (17.6%), local evidence (17.6%) and coverage in local media (16.2%). This study confirms that both hard and soft data are used to inform policy decisions at the local level. Therefore, the challenge that this study has highlighted is in the definition or constitution of evidence. SO WHAT? Evidence is critical to the process of sound policy development. This study highlights issues associated with what actually constitutes evidence in the policy development process at the local government level. With the exception of those who work in an extremely narrow field, it is difficult for local government officers, whose role includes policymaking, to read the vast amount of information that has been published in their area of expertise. For those who are committed to the notion of evidence-based policymaking, as advocated within the WA Public Health Bill, this presents a considerable challenge.

  2. Factoring consumers' perspectives into policy decisions for nursing competence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazarus, Jean B; Lee, N Genell

    2006-08-01

    Health care delivery competence and accountability have typically been defined from providers' perspectives, rather than those of consumers as purchasers of services. In 1999, in the face of broad public concern about nursing competence the Alabama Board of Nursing developed an accountability model that established consumers at the center of the model and placed accountability for competent nursing practice at all levels of providers including regulatory agencies, health care organizations, educators, and licensees. The Board then authorized two research projects involving first, consumers perceptions on nursing competence and regulation, and second, comparing their perceptions with those of licensees, nurse educators, and organizational leaders (N = 1,127). Comparative data evidenced significant differences between consumers' and other participants' perceptions. This article highlights how policy implications derived from research resulted in regulatory changes for nursing competence. Five years of progress in policy changes made in the interest of public safety are summarized.

  3. Influence of institutional culture and policies on do-not-resuscitate decision making at the end of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzeng, Elizabeth; Colaianni, Alessandra; Roland, Martin; Chander, Geetanjali; Smith, Thomas J; Kelly, Michael P; Barclay, Stephen; Levine, David

    2015-05-01

    Controversy exists regarding whether the decision to pursue a do-not-resuscitate (DNR) order should be grounded in an ethic of patient autonomy or in the obligation to act in the patient's best interest (beneficence). To explore how physicians' approaches to DNR decision making at the end of life are shaped by institutional cultures and policies surrounding patient autonomy. We performed semistructured in-depth qualitative interviews of 58 internal medicine physicians from 4 academic medical centers (3 in the United States and 1 in the United Kingdom) by years of experience and medical subspecialty from March 7, 2013, through January 8, 2014. Hospitals were selected based on expected differences in hospital culture and variations in hospital policies regarding prioritization of autonomy vs best interest. This study identified the key influences of institutional culture and policies on physicians' attitudes toward patient autonomy in DNR decision making at the end of life. A hospital's prioritization of autonomy vs best interest as reflected in institutional culture and policy appeared to influence the way that physician trainees conceptualized patient autonomy. This finding may have influenced the degree of choice and recommendations physician trainees were willing to offer regarding DNR decision making. Trainees at hospitals where policies and culture prioritized autonomy-focused approaches appeared to have an unreflective deference to autonomy and felt compelled to offer the choice of resuscitation neutrally in all situations regardless of whether they believed resuscitation to be clinically appropriate. In contrast, trainees at hospitals where policies and culture prioritized best-interest-focused approaches appeared to be more comfortable recommending against resuscitation in situations where survival was unlikely. Experienced physicians at all sites similarly did not exclusively allow their actions to be defined by policies and institutional culture and were

  4. Green electricity policy in the Netherlands. An analysis of policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rooijen, Sascha van; Wees, Mark van

    2003-01-01

    Over the last decades, fundamental changes in both market conditions and the national and international policy framework in the Netherlands can be observed. The Dutch Government has intervened in markets regularly, demonstrating fundamental shifts in policy and approach. This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in the Netherlands. It assesses changes in the choice of policy instruments and target groups, the role of stakeholders and offers explanations behind policy successes and failures. The following conclusions can be drawn on the policy choices: First, the objectives and targets of Dutch renewable energy policy were frequently ambiguous. Although the government emphasised the importance of investments in local capacity, imports were always (implicitly) seen as an alternative option in meeting targets. Second, for a long period the government focused on reducing investment costs and dismantling administrative barriers. Only recently has the lack of a stable investment climate been identified as a potential barrier. Third, although many stakeholders have advocated a mandatory approach, Dutch policies stimulating renewable energy have always been voluntary. Finally, the Ministry of Economic Affairs has always played a very dominant role in renewable energy policy formulation and implementation, which may explain the fact that some unfavourable market reactions to policies have not been foreseen. (author)

  5. In-situ burning policy development for California: A consensus approach to policy and decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Addassi, Y. N.

    1997-01-01

    Current efforts by the California State Dept. of Fish and Game to develop an in-situ burning policy for oil spills in the open-water marine environments of the State were described. The differing perspectives and mandates of the various agency representatives on working groups and the frequent necessity of consensus solutions was highlighted. It was stated that the consensus approach requires more time and energy, however, it is off-set by the benefits of developing good working relationships that will ultimately facilitate decision-making. Current projected timelines for the completed in-situ burning policy, pertinent sections of the draft policy, plans for dealing with negative public reactions to the policy and outreach and public education programs were outlined. 12 refs

  6. Parliament's decision specified the energy policy in Finland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aurela, J.

    2002-01-01

    The Finnish Parliament decided on Friday 24 May 2002, to ratify the favourable decision-in-principle on the fifth nuclear power plant unit made by the Government last January, with 107 votes in favour and 92 votes against. Thus Teollisuuden Voima Oy (TVO), the Finnish privately owned electricity generation company responsible for the project, is authorised to continue the preparations for the construction of a new nuclear power plant unit. The article handles the process in the coming years if TVO will go on with the process. The most important steps according to the nuclear legislation are to have construction and operating licenses in due time. (author)

  7. Green electricity policies in the Netherlands: an analysis of policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rooijen, Sascha N.M. van; Wees, Mark T. van

    2006-01-01

    Over the last decades, fundamental changes can be observed in both market conditions and the national policy framework for green electricity in the Netherlands. The Dutch Government has regularly intervened in markets, demonstrating fundamental shifts in policy and approach. This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in the Netherlands. It assesses changes in the choice of policy instruments and target groups, the role of stakeholders, and offers explanations behind policy successes and failures. Dutch green electricity policy over the last decade can be characterised roughly by three phases: in the early 1990s, the government negotiated voluntary agreements with the energy distribution sector on targets for green electricity sales, which were never met. In the second half of the 1990s, a regulatory energy tax was introduced, from which customers of green electricity were exempt. This led to a substantial increase in demand, which was largely met by green electricity imports, and did not lead to additional domestic renewable energy capacity. Finally, a change in policy has taken place recently (2003) shifting the focus from promotion of demand to the promotion of supply through a system of regulated feed-in tariffs. Despite the renewable energy policies, growth of the renewable energy market in the Netherlands has been small and targets have not been fully met. The Dutch government has not yet succeeded in substantially reducing market uncertainties and in building confidence among market parties, because the policies have not been stable and policy objectives have frequently been partly ambiguous. In addition, the influence of stakeholders in renewable energy policy making has been small which has the early acceptance and implementation of alternative policies

  8. Automated Vectorization of Decision-Based Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Mark

    2006-01-01

    Virtually all existing vectorization algorithms are designed to only analyze the numeric properties of an algorithm and distribute those elements across multiple processors. This advances the state of the practice because it is the only known system, at the time of this reporting, that takes high-level statements and analyzes them for their decision properties and converts them to a form that allows them to automatically be executed in parallel. The software takes a high-level source program that describes a complex decision- based condition and rewrites it as a disjunctive set of component Boolean relations that can then be executed in parallel. This is important because parallel architectures are becoming more commonplace in conventional systems and they have always been present in NASA flight systems. This technology allows one to take existing condition-based code and automatically vectorize it so it naturally decomposes across parallel architectures.

  9. Simulating school closure policies for cost effective pandemic decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Araz Ozgur M

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Around the globe, school closures were used sporadically to mitigate the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. However, such closures can detrimentally impact economic and social life. Methods Here, we couple a decision analytic approach with a mathematical model of influenza transmission to estimate the impact of school closures in terms of epidemiological and cost effectiveness. Our method assumes that the transmissibility and the severity of the disease are uncertain, and evaluates several closure and reopening strategies that cover a range of thresholds in school-aged prevalence (SAP and closure durations. Results Assuming a willingness to pay per quality adjusted life-year (QALY threshold equal to the US per capita GDP ($46,000, we found that the cost effectiveness of these strategies is highly dependent on the severity and on a willingness to pay per QALY. For severe pandemics, the preferred strategy couples the earliest closure trigger (0.5% SAP with the longest duration closure (24 weeks considered. For milder pandemics, the preferred strategies also involve the earliest closure trigger, but are shorter duration (12 weeks for low transmission rates and variable length for high transmission rates. Conclusions These findings highlight the importance of obtaining early estimates of pandemic severity and provide guidance to public health decision-makers for effectively tailoring school closures strategies in response to a newly emergent influenza pandemic.

  10. Economics of climate policy and collective decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buergenmeier, B.; Ferrier, C.; Ingold, K.; Perret, S.; Baranzini, A.; Germond-Duret, C.; Kypreos, S.; Wokaun, A.; Rafaj, P.

    2006-01-01

    This paper explores the reasons why economic instruments of climate change are reluctantly applied and stresses the need for interdisciplinary research linking economic theory and empirical testing to deliberative political procedures. It is divided in three parts. The first one recalls the main issues in implementing Cost-Benefit Analysis such as information problems, uncertainties, discounting the future and irreversibilities. The second part shows how these issues can be treated in integrated assessment and techno-economic models and presents a case study, which shows that (1) The chosen scenario tends to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at around 550 ppm in the long run; (2) Exclusion of possibility to trade CO2 emission permits under a cap regime would increase the cost of emission abatement for OECD countries; and (3) Combining different flexibility instruments might lead to significant gains in the overall cost of climate policy. The third part presents results of a survey conducted among the main economic and environmental associations in Switzerland. The survey reveals conflicting views on economic instruments. It shows how the social acceptability of these instruments can be improved in taking explicitly into account these opposing views of special interest groups. Therefore, policy scenarios should be selected in combining techno-economic models with empirical studies about their political and normative context

  11. Building energy retrofit index for policy making and decision support at regional and national scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khayatian, Fazel; Sarto, Luca; Dall'O', Giuliano

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Machine learning is used for pre-processing, fine-tuning and post-processing data. •A new indicator is introduced to support building energy retrofit policies. •The presented indicator is evaluated by a case study of 4767 buildings. •Current energy indicators can misrepresent the building energy retrofit potential. -- Abstract: The vast data collected since the enforcement of building energy labelling in Italy has provided valuable information that is useful for planning the future of building energy efficiency. However, the indicators provided through energy certificates are not suitable to support decisions, which target building energy retrofit in a regional scale. Considering the bias of the energy performance index toward a building’s shape, decisions based on this index will favor buildings with a specific geometric characteristics. This study tends to overcome this issue by introducing a new indicator, tailored to rank buildings based on retrofitable characteristics. The proposed framework is validated by a case study, in which a large dataset of office buildings are assigned with the new index. Results indicate that the proposed indicator succeeds to extract a single index, which is representative of all building characteristics subject to energy retrofit. A new labeling procedure is also compared with the conventional classification of buildings. It is observed that the proposed labels properly partitions the dataset, according to buildings’ potential to undergo energy retrofit.

  12. Present supply and demand on the world uranium market and decision of the nuclear fuel cycle policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Luqing

    1994-01-01

    The present supply and demand relationship on the world uranium market due to the change of international situation in the last years is described and the falling price on the world uranium market is estimated. It is pointed out that the falling price would continue for a long time. Based on it the three different policy decisions on the back-end of nuclear fuel cycle are analysed

  13. Assessing Patient Participation in Health Policy Decision-Making in Cyprus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyriakos Souliotis

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Although the importance of patient participation in the design and evaluation of health programs and services is well-documented, there is scarcity of research with regard to patient association (PA participation in health policy decision-making processes. To this end, the present study aimed to validate further a previously developed instrument as well as to investigate the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making in Cyprus. A convenient sample of 114 patients-members of patients associations took part in the study. Participants were recruited from an umbrella organization, the Pancyprian Federation of Patient Associations and Friends (PFPA. PA participation in health policy decision-making was assessed with the Health Democracy Index (HDI, an original 8-item tool. To explore its psychometric properties, Cronbach α was computed as regards to its internal consistency, while its convergent validity was tested against a self-rated question enquiring about the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making. The findings revealed that the HDI has good internal consistency and convergent validity. Furthermore, PAs were found to participate more in consultations in health-related organizations and the Ministry of Health (MoH as well as in reforms or crucial decisions in health policy. Lower levels were documented with regard to participation in hospital boards, ethics committees in clinical trials and health technology assessment (HTA procedures. Overall, PA participation levels were found to be lower than the mid-point of the scale. Targeted interventions aiming to facilitate patients’ involvement in health policy decision-making processes and to increase its impact are greatly needed in Cyprus.

  14. Assessing Patient Participation in Health Policy Decision-Making in Cyprus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souliotis, Kyriakos; Agapidaki, Eirini; Peppou, Lily Evangelia; Tzavara, Chara; Samoutis, George; Theodorou, Mamas

    2016-06-20

    Although the importance of patient participation in the design and evaluation of health programs and services is well-documented, there is scarcity of research with regard to patient association (PA) participation in health policy decision-making processes. To this end, the present study aimed to validate further a previously developed instrument as well as to investigate the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making in Cyprus. A convenient sample of 114 patients-members of patients associations took part in the study. Participants were recruited from an umbrella organization, the Pancyprian Federation of Patient Associations and Friends (PFPA). PA participation in health policy decision-making was assessed with the Health Democracy Index (HDI), an original 8-item tool. To explore its psychometric properties, Cronbach α was computed as regards to its internal consistency, while its convergent validity was tested against a self-rated question enquiring about the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making. The findings revealed that the HDI has good internal consistency and convergent validity. Furthermore, PAs were found to participate more in consultations in health-related organizations and the Ministry of Health (MoH) as well as in reforms or crucial decisions in health policy. Lower levels were documented with regard to participation in hospital boards, ethics committees in clinical trials and health technology assessment (HTA) procedures. Overall, PA participation levels were found to be lower than the mid-point of the scale. Targeted interventions aiming to facilitate patients' involvement in health policy decision-making processes and to increase its impact are greatly needed in Cyprus. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

  15. The EVOTION Decision Support System: Utilizing It for Public Health Policy-Making in Hearing Loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katrakazas, Panagiotis; Trenkova, Lyubov; Milas, Josip; Brdaric, Dario; Koutsouris, Dimitris

    2017-01-01

    As Decision Support Systems start to play a significant role in decision making, especially in the field of public-health policy making, we present an initial attempt to formulate such a system in the concept of public health policy making for hearing loss related problems. Justification for the system's conceptual architecture and its key functionalities are presented. The introduction of the EVOTION DSS sets a key innovation and a basis for paradigm shift in policymaking, by incorporating relevant models, big data analytics and generic demographic data. Expected outcomes for this joint effort are discussed from a public-health point of view.

  16. Energizing Government Decision-Makers with the Facts on Solar Technology, Policy, and Integration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-01-01

    The Solar Technical Assistance Team (STAT) is a network of solar technology and implementation experts who provide timely, unbiased expertise to assist policymakers and regulators in making informed decisions about solar programs and policies. Government officials can submit requests directly to the STAT for technical assistance. STAT then partners with experts in solar policy, regulation, finance, technology, and other areas to deliver accurate, up-to-date information to state and local decision makers. The STAT responds to requests on a wide range of issues -- including, but not limited to, feed-in tariffs, renewable portfolio standards, rate design, program design, workforce and economic impacts of solar on jurisdictions, and project financing.

  17. Dopamine and Effort-Based Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irma Triasih Kurniawan

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Motivational theories of choice focus on the influence of goal values and strength of reinforcement to explain behavior. By contrast relatively little is known concerning how the cost of an action, such as effort expended, contributes to a decision to act. Effort-based decision making addresses how we make an action choice based on an integration of action and goal values. Here we review behavioral and neurobiological data regarding the representation of effort as action cost, and how this impacts on decision making. Although organisms expend effort to obtain a desired reward there is a striking sensitivity to the amount of effort required, such that the net preference for an action decreases as effort cost increases. We discuss the contribution of the neurotransmitter dopamine (DA towards overcoming response costs and in enhancing an animal’s motivation towards effortful actions. We also consider the contribution of brain structures, including the basal ganglia (BG and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC, in the internal generation of action involving a translation of reward expectation into effortful action.

  18. Understanding farmers' strategic decision-making processes and the implications for biodiversity conservation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmar-Bowers, Quentin; Lane, Ruth

    2009-02-01

    The conservation of biodiversity is an important issue world wide and in Australia the maintenance of native biodiversity on farms makes an important contribution to overall conservation objectives. This paper seeks to explain Australian farmers' rationale for maintaining biodiversity on their farms for personal as opposed to business reasons by developing a decision-systems theory from in-depth interviews. This difference has implications for policy development. The decision-systems theory is divided into two main sections. The first section contains five parts. (1) A hierarchy of motivation stories, (2) the concept of suitability and availability of opportunities, (3) a hierarchy of three decision-systems, (4) the concept of personal career paths, (5) the concept of Lenses. The second section contains one part, a policy classification system called 'boxes of influence' that suggests how policy developers can use the information in the first section to develop new biodiversity conservation policy. The paper suggests that decision-systems theory could be used to shed new light on current trends in agriculture and become an important investigative tool for policy development concerning the conservation of biodiversity on farms.

  19. Life-oriented approach for urban policy decision-making: Surveys and applications

    OpenAIRE

    Junyi Zhang; Yubing Xiong; Minh Tu Tran

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we propose an additional approach, called life-oriented approach, for supporting urban policy decisions. The life-oriented approach argues that people's decisions on various life choices are not independent of each other and that an understanding of life choices should not be constrained by the boundary of any single discipline. People's life choices are closely linked with the quality of life (QOL), which can be roughly captured from the perspective of life domains such as res...

  20. Bioenergy systems sustainability assessment & management (BIOSSAM) guidance portal for policy, decision and development support of integrated bioenergy supply interventions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Stafford, WHL

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available . There are several new bioenergy interventions (policies, projects, or programmes) that are being considered and these developments must be assessed in terms of their sustainability. Both public and private sector policy makers, decision makers, and technology...

  1. Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the annual cycle: Linking policy alternatives, landowner decisions, and biological population outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drum, Ryan G.; Ribic, Christine; Koch, Katie; Lonsdorf, Eric V.; Grant, Edward C.; Ahlering, Marissa; Barnhill, Laurel; Dailey, Thomas; Lor, Socheata; Mueller, Connie; Pavlacky, D.C.; Rideout, Catherine; Sample, David W.

    2015-01-01

    Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.

  2. Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the Annual Cycle: Linking Policy Alternatives, Landowner Decisions, and Biological Population Outcomes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan G Drum

    Full Text Available Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.

  3. Role of ideas and ideologies in evidence-based health policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinja, S

    2010-01-01

    Policy making in health is largely thought to be driven by three 'I's namely ideas, interests and institutions. Recent years have seen a shift in approach with increasing reliance being placed on role of evidence for policy making. The present article ascertains the role of ideas and ideologies in shaping evidence which is used to aid in policy decisions. The article discusses different theories of research-policy interface and the relative freedom of research-based evidence from the influence of ideas. Examples from developed and developed countries are cited to illustrate the contentions made. The article highlights the complexity of the process of evidence-based policy making, in a world driven by existing political, social and cultural ideologies. Consideration of this knowledge is paramount where more efforts are being made to bridge the gap between the 'two worlds' of researchers and policy makers to make evidence-based policy as also for policy analysts.

  4. Methods of legitimation: how ethics committees decide which reasons count in public policy decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Kyle T

    2014-07-01

    In recent years, liberal democratic societies have struggled with the question of how best to balance expertise and democratic participation in the regulation of emerging technologies. This study aims to explain how national deliberative ethics committees handle the practical tension between scientific expertise, ethical expertise, expert patient input, and lay public input by explaining two institutions' processes for determining the legitimacy or illegitimacy of reasons in public policy decision-making: that of the United Kingdom's Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) and the United States' American Society for Reproductive Medicine (ASRM). The articulation of these 'methods of legitimation' draws on 13 in-depth interviews with HFEA and ASRM members and staff conducted in January and February 2012 in London and over Skype, as well as observation of an HFEA deliberation. This study finds that these two institutions employ different methods in rendering certain arguments legitimate and others illegitimate: while the HFEA attempts to 'balance' competing reasons but ultimately legitimizes arguments based on health and welfare concerns, the ASRM seeks to 'filter' out arguments that challenge reproductive autonomy. The notably different structures and missions of each institution may explain these divergent approaches, as may what Sheila Jasanoff (2005) terms the distinctive 'civic epistemologies' of the US and the UK. Significantly for policy makers designing such deliberative committees, each method differs substantially from that explicitly or implicitly endorsed by the institution. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Policy administration in tag-based authorization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Etalle, Sandro; Hinrichs, Timothy L.; Lee, Adam J.; Trivellato, Daniel; Zannone, Nicola

    2013-01-01

    Tag-Based Authorization (TBA) is a hybrid access control model that combines the ease of use of extensional access control models with the expressivity of logic-based formalisms. The main limitation of TBA is that it lacks support for policy administration. More precisely, it does not allow

  6. [Influenza A from the rational choice theory: proposals for decision making in prevention policies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peña, Francisco Garrido; Fernández, Luís Andrés López; García, Eugenia Gil

    2009-01-01

    This article is a reflection on the social uncertainty caused by Influenza A and on the consequences that it can have on decision making in health promotion policies. We use concepts and metaphors of the Rational Choice Theory, among them, the "in gratitude effect" or the "distrust effect", as we analyse how these can become obstacles for the efficiency of prevention policies. Then, we focus on the information asymmetry of the principal-agent relationship, and we propose measures to diminish the "moral risk" that they cause. We finish by advancing some proposals for designing lines and strategies of action in health promotion policies.

  7. The Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report: A Scientific Basis for Policy and Management Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birdsey, R.; Mayes, M. A.; Reed, S.; Najjar, R.; Romero-Lankao, P.

    2017-12-01

    The second "State of the Carbon Cycle of North America Report" (SOCCR-2) includes an overview of the North American carbon budget and future projections, the consequences of changes to the carbon budget, details of the carbon budget in major terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems (including coastal ocean waters), information about anthropogenic drivers, and implications for policy and carbon management. SOCCR-2 includes new focus areas such as soil carbon, arctic and boreal ecosystems, tribal lands, and greater emphasis on aquatic systems and the role of societal drivers and decision making on the carbon cycle. In addition, methane is considered to a greater extent than before. SOCCR-2 will contribute to the next U.S. National Climate Assessment, as well as providing information to support science-based management decisions and policies that include climate change mitigation and adaptation in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. Although the Report is still in the review process, preliminary findings indicate that North America is a net emitter of carbon dioxide and methane to the atmosphere, and that natural sinks offset about 25% of emitted carbon dioxide. Combustion of fossil fuels represents the largest source of emissions, but show a decreasing trend over the last decade and a lower share (20%) of the global total compared with the previous decade. Forests, soils, grasslands, and coastal oceans comprise the largest carbon sinks, while emissions from inland waters are a significant source of carbon dioxide. The Report also documents the lateral transfers of carbon among terrestrial ecosystems and from terrestrial to near-coastal ecosystems, to complete the carbon cycle accounting. Further, the Report explores the consequences of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide on terrestrial and oceanic systems, and the capacity of these systems to continue to act as carbon sinks based on the drivers of future carbon cycle changes, including carbon-climate feedbacks

  8. Policy-Based Management Natural Language Parser

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Mark

    2009-01-01

    The Policy-Based Management Natural Language Parser (PBEM) is a rules-based approach to enterprise management that can be used to automate certain management tasks. This parser simplifies the management of a given endeavor by establishing policies to deal with situations that are likely to occur. Policies are operating rules that can be referred to as a means of maintaining order, security, consistency, or other ways of successfully furthering a goal or mission. PBEM provides a way of managing configuration of network elements, applications, and processes via a set of high-level rules or business policies rather than managing individual elements, thus switching the control to a higher level. This software allows unique management rules (or commands) to be specified and applied to a cross-section of the Global Information Grid (GIG). This software embodies a parser that is capable of recognizing and understanding conversational English. Because all possible dialect variants cannot be anticipated, a unique capability was developed that parses passed on conversation intent rather than the exact way the words are used. This software can increase productivity by enabling a user to converse with the system in conversational English to define network policies. PBEM can be used in both manned and unmanned science-gathering programs. Because policy statements can be domain-independent, this software can be applied equally to a wide variety of applications.

  9. Advances in the application of decision theory to test-based decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    This paper reviews recent research in the Netherlands on the application of decision theory to test-based decision making about personnel selection and student placement. The review is based on an earlier model proposed for the classification of decision problems, and emphasizes an empirical

  10. Time dependent policy-based access control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vasilikos, Panagiotis; Nielson, Flemming; Nielson, Hanne Riis

    2017-01-01

    also on other attributes of the environment such as the time. In this paper, we use systems of Timed Automata to model distributed systems and we present a logic in which one can express time-dependent policies for access control. We show how a fragment of our logic can be reduced to a logic......Access control policies are essential to determine who is allowed to access data in a system without compromising the data's security. However, applications inside a distributed environment may require those policies to be dependent on the actual content of the data, the flow of information, while...... that current model checkers for Timed Automata such as UPPAAL can handle and we present a translator that performs this reduction. We then use our translator and UPPAAL to enforce time-dependent policy-based access control on an example application from the aerospace industry....

  11. What Policy Actors Seek for: Reciprocal Misunderstanding of Objectives of Participatory Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birutė PITRĖNAITĖ-ŽILĖNIENĖ

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this research is to explore different policy actors’ attitudes towards participation in public decision making. The paper examines objectives of external participants’ involvement and compares various participants’ judgements on the process and results of participation. We screened operation of formal networks of participatory decision making at the Lithuanian Ministries of Health and Education & Science. The research revealed the willingness of decision makers to allow different stakeholders to contribute to the solution of problems of diverse character. The results of interviews manifested reciprocal miscommunication towards objectives and results of participatory decision making. Public administrators demonstrated their high willingness to acquire expertise, while external participants sought to present specific interests and got them implemented as well. However, it has to be admitted that decision makers are not committed to the results generated by stakeholders.

  12. On condition based maintenance policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong-Ho Shin

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In the case of a high-valuable asset, the Operation and Maintenance (O&M phase requires heavy charges and more efforts than the installation (construction phase, because it has long usage life and any accident of an asset during this period causes catastrophic damage to an industry. Recently, with the advent of emerging Information Communication Technologies (ICTs, we can get the visibility of asset status information during its usage period. It gives us new challenging issues for improving the efficiency of asset operations. One issue is to implement the Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM approach that makes a diagnosis of the asset status based on wire or wireless monitored data, predicts the assets abnormality, and executes suitable maintenance actions such as repair and replacement before serious problems happen. In this study, we have addressed several aspects of CBM approach: definition, related international standards, procedure, and techniques with the introduction of some relevant case studies that we have carried out.

  13. Prioritizing congenital syphilis control in south China: a decision analytic model to inform policy implementation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas X Tan

    Full Text Available Syphilis is a major public health problem in many regions of China, with increases in congenital syphilis (CS cases causing concern. The Chinese Ministry of Health recently announced a comprehensive 10-y national syphilis control plan focusing on averting CS. The decision analytic model presented here quantifies the impact of the planned strategies to determine whether they are likely to meet the goals laid out in the control plan.Our model incorporated data on age-stratified fertility, female adult syphilis cases, and empirical syphilis transmission rates to estimate the number of CS cases associated with prenatal syphilis infection on a yearly basis. Guangdong Province was the focus of this analysis because of the availability of high-quality demographic and public health data. Each model outcome was simulated 1,000 times to incorporate uncertainty in model inputs. The model was validated using data from a CS intervention program among 477,656 women in China. Sensitivity analyses were performed to identify which variables are likely to be most influential in achieving Chinese and international policy goals. Increasing prenatal screening coverage was the single most effective strategy for reducing CS cases. An incremental increase in prenatal screening from the base case of 57% coverage to 95% coverage was associated with 106 (95% CI: 101, 111 CS cases averted per 100,000 live births (58% decrease. The policy strategies laid out in the national plan led to an outcome that fell short of the target, while a four-pronged comprehensive syphilis control strategy consisting of increased prenatal screening coverage, increased treatment completion, earlier prenatal screening, and improved syphilis test characteristics was associated with 157 (95% CI: 154, 160 CS cases averted per 100,000 live births (85% decrease.The Chinese national plan provides a strong foundation for syphilis control, but more comprehensive measures that include earlier and more

  14. Classifiers based on optimal decision rules

    KAUST Repository

    Amin, Talha

    2013-11-25

    Based on dynamic programming approach we design algorithms for sequential optimization of exact and approximate decision rules relative to the length and coverage [3, 4]. In this paper, we use optimal rules to construct classifiers, and study two questions: (i) which rules are better from the point of view of classification-exact or approximate; and (ii) which order of optimization gives better results of classifier work: length, length+coverage, coverage, or coverage+length. Experimental results show that, on average, classifiers based on exact rules are better than classifiers based on approximate rules, and sequential optimization (length+coverage or coverage+length) is better than the ordinary optimization (length or coverage).

  15. Classifiers based on optimal decision rules

    KAUST Repository

    Amin, Talha M.; Chikalov, Igor; Moshkov, Mikhail; Zielosko, Beata

    2013-01-01

    Based on dynamic programming approach we design algorithms for sequential optimization of exact and approximate decision rules relative to the length and coverage [3, 4]. In this paper, we use optimal rules to construct classifiers, and study two questions: (i) which rules are better from the point of view of classification-exact or approximate; and (ii) which order of optimization gives better results of classifier work: length, length+coverage, coverage, or coverage+length. Experimental results show that, on average, classifiers based on exact rules are better than classifiers based on approximate rules, and sequential optimization (length+coverage or coverage+length) is better than the ordinary optimization (length or coverage).

  16. Favorable Decision Upholding Radioactive/Hazardous Mixed Waste Storage Civil Enforcement Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page contains a copy of the U.S. Court of Appeals (District of Columbia Circuit) decision in Edison Electric Institute, et al. v. EPA, No. 91-1586, which upheld the EPA's August 29, 1991, radioactive/hazardous 'mixed waste' storage civil enforcement policy

  17. A Decision Support System for integrated tourism development: Rethinking tourism policies and management strategies

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bousset, J. P.; Skuras, D.; Těšitel, Jan; Marsat, J. B.; Petrou, A.; Fiallo-Pantziou, E.; Kušová, Drahomíra; Bartoš, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 9, č. 4 (2007), s. 387-404 ISSN 1461-6688 Grant - others:-(XE) QLK5-CT-2000-01211-SPRITE Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : Integrated tourism * policy formulation * participatory approaches * simulation models * decision support system Subject RIV: AE - Management ; Administration

  18. Committee Structure and its Implications for Monetary Policy Decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.M. Berk (Jan Marc); B.K. Bierut

    2003-01-01

    textabstractWe investigate the implications for the setting of interest rates when monetary policy decisions are taken by a committee, in which a subset of members may meet prior to the voting in the committee and therefore has the possibility to reach consensus ex ante to vote unanimously ex post.

  19. Committee structure and its implications for monetary policy decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bierut, B.K.; Berk, J.M.

    2003-01-01

    We investigate the implications for the setting of interest rates when monetary policy decisions are taken by a committee, in which a subset of membersmay meet prior to the voting in the committee and therefore has the possibility to reach consensus ex ante to vote unanimously ex post. We allow

  20. Mapping ecosystem services for policy support and decision making in the European Union

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maes, J.; Egoh, B.; Willemen, L.; Liquete, C.; Vihervaara, P.; Schägner, J.P.; Grizzetti, B.; Drakou, E.G.; Notte, La A.; Zulian, G.; Bouraoui, F.; Parcchini, M.L.; Braat, L.C.

    2012-01-01

    Mainstreaming ecosystem services into policy and decision making is dependent on the availability of spatially explicit information on the state and trends of ecosystems and their services. In particular, the EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 addresses the need to account for ecosystem services

  1. Public Marketing: An Alternative Policy Decision-Making Idea for Small Cities. Community Development Research Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyers, James; And Others

    The concept of public marketing presents a strategy for the systems approach to community development that would facilitate the community decision making process via improved communication. Basic aspects of the social marketing process include: (1) product policy; (2) channels of distribution; (3) pricing (perceived price vs quality and quantity…

  2. The Relevance of Theories of the Policy Process to Educational Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, R. J.

    1985-01-01

    Two case studies of educational decision making are used to test the utility of some current theories of the policy-formation process; a framework for the application of these theories is proposed; and the merits of applying existing theories before seeking new paradigms are stressed. (MSE)

  3. The Decision to Form the Kangan Committee--A Case Study in the Educational Policy Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, John

    1983-01-01

    The postsecondary education policymaking process in Australia, rather than being goal-oriented and rational, is a series of adjustments to existing policy dictated by political expediency, often over many years and changes of government and leading to decisions reflecting unstable origins. This committee's broad influences illustrate this process.…

  4. Financing Postsecondary Education: Policy Development and Decision Making. A Series of Conferences. Conference Handbook.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Education Commission of the States, Denver, CO.

    This handbook attempts to improve policy development and decision making relative to financing postsecondary education. Sections cover: (1) descriptions and comparisons of selected reports relative to recommendations for postsecondary financing; (2) position statements and/or comments on postsecondary financing from certain cooperative sponsoring…

  5. How Qualitative Research Informs Clinical and Policy Decision Making in Transplantation: A Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Allison; Morton, Rachael L; Webster, Angela C

    2016-09-01

    Patient-centered care is no longer just a buzzword. It is now widely touted as a cornerstone in delivering quality care across all fields of medicine. However, patient-centered strategies and interventions necessitate evidence about patients' decision-making processes, values, priorities, and needs. Qualitative research is particularly well suited to understanding the experience and perspective of patients, donors, clinicians, and policy makers on a wide range of transplantation-related topics including organ donation and allocation, adherence to prescribed therapy, pretransplant and posttransplant care, implementation of clinical guidelines, and doctor-patient communication. In transplantation, evidence derived from qualitative research has been integrated into strategies for shared decision-making, patient educational resources, process evaluations of trials, clinical guidelines, and policies. The aim of this article is to outline key concepts and methods used in qualitative research, guide the appraisal of qualitative studies, and assist clinicians to understand how qualitative research may inform their practice and policy.

  6. Modeling decision making as a support tool for policy making on renewable energy development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cannemi, Marco; García-Melón, Mónica; Aragonés-Beltrán, Pablo; Gómez-Navarro, Tomás

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the findings of a study on decision making models for the analysis of capital-risk investors’ preferences on biomass power plants projects. The aim of the work is to improve the support tools for policy makers in the field of renewable energy development. Analytic Network Process (ANP) helps to better understand capital-risk investors preferences towards different kinds of biomass fueled power plants. The results of the research allow public administration to better foresee the investors’ reaction to the incentive system, or to modify the incentive system to better drive investors’ decisions. Changing the incentive system is seen as major risk by investors. Therefore, public administration must design better and longer-term incentive systems, forecasting market reactions. For that, two scenarios have been designed, one showing a typical decision making process and another proposing an improved decision making scenario. A case study conducted in Italy has revealed that ANP allows understanding how capital-risk investors interpret the situation and make decisions when investing on biomass power plants; the differences between the interests of public administrations’s and promoters’, how decision making could be influenced by adding new decision criteria, and which case would be ranked best according to the decision models. - Highlights: • We applied ANP to the investors’ preferences on biomass power plants projects. • The aim is to improve the advising tools for renewable energy policy making. • A case study has been carried out with the help of two experts. • We designed two scenarios: decision making as it is and how could it be improved. • Results prove ANP is a fruitful tool enhancing participation and transparency

  7. Accelerating policy decisions to adopt haemophilus influenzae type B vaccine: a global, multivariable analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, Jessica C; Stack, Meghan L; Richmond, Marcie R; Bear, Allyson P; Hajjeh, Rana A; Bishai, David M

    2010-03-16

    Adoption of new and underutilized vaccines by national immunization programs is an essential step towards reducing child mortality. Policy decisions to adopt new vaccines in high mortality countries often lag behind decisions in high-income countries. Using the case of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine, this paper endeavors to explain these delays through the analysis of country-level economic, epidemiological, programmatic and policy-related factors, as well as the role of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI Alliance). Data for 147 countries from 1990 to 2007 were analyzed in accelerated failure time models to identify factors that are associated with the time to decision to adopt Hib vaccine. In multivariable models that control for Gross National Income, region, and burden of Hib disease, the receipt of GAVI support speeded the time to decision by a factor of 0.37 (95% CI 0.18-0.76), or 63%. The presence of two or more neighboring country adopters accelerated decisions to adopt by a factor of 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.75). For each 1% increase in vaccine price, decisions to adopt are delayed by a factor of 1.02 (95% CI 1.00-1.04). Global recommendations and local studies were not associated with time to decision. This study substantiates previous findings related to vaccine price and presents new evidence to suggest that GAVI eligibility is associated with accelerated decisions to adopt Hib vaccine. The influence of neighboring country decisions was also highly significant, suggesting that approaches to support the adoption of new vaccines should consider supply- and demand-side factors.

  8. Cognitive schema and naturalistic decision making in evidence-based practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falzer, Paul R

    2004-04-01

    A recent article in this journal proposed a naturalistic approach to decision making that overcomes problems intrinsic to classical decision theory. The approach emphasizes cognitive and multi-level processes, the development of expert reasoning, and the role of decision support in individual and organizational decision making. The current paper builds on this effort by suggesting a naturalistic, multi-level, theory that can facilitate the dissemination of evidence-based practices (EBPs). The paper presents "Image Theory," a theory that has been extensively investigated in other disciplines, but has yet to be utilized in medical decision research. It is suggested that its rich, empirically tested, distinctions among kinds of cognitive and organizational processes and types of decisions and tasks make Image Theory especially valuable in describing impediments to implementing EBPs. The paper discusses how naturalistic theory can assist clinicians, administrators, researchers, and policy makers in achieving a balance between evidence-based medicine and patient-centered practice.

  9. Risk and Rationality in Adolescent Decision Making: Implications for Theory, Practice, and Public Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyna, Valerie F; Farley, Frank

    2006-09-01

    Crime, smoking, drug use, alcoholism, reckless driving, and many other unhealthy patterns of behavior that play out over a lifetime often debut during adolescence. Avoiding risks or buying time can set a different lifetime pattern. Changing unhealthy behaviors in adolescence would have a broad impact on society, reducing the burdens of disease, injury, human suffering, and associated economic costs. Any program designed to prevent or change such risky behaviors should be founded on a clear idea of what is normative (what behaviors, ideally, should the program foster?), descriptive (how are adolescents making decisions in the absence of the program?), and prescriptive (which practices can realistically move adolescent decisions closer to the normative ideal?). Normatively, decision processes should be evaluated for coherence (is the thinking process nonsensical, illogical, or self-contradictory?) and correspondence (are the outcomes of the decisions positive?). Behaviors that promote positive physical and mental health outcomes in modern society can be at odds with those selected for by evolution (e.g., early procreation). Healthy behaviors may also conflict with a decision maker's goals. Adolescents' goals are more likely to maximize immediate pleasure, and strict decision analysis implies that many kinds of unhealthy behavior, such as drinking and drug use, could be deemed rational. However, based on data showing developmental changes in goals, it is important for policy to promote positive long-term outcomes rather than adolescents' short-term goals. Developmental data also suggest that greater risk aversion is generally adaptive, and that decision processes that support this aversion are more advanced than those that support risk taking. A key question is whether adolescents are developmentally competent to make decisions about risks. In principle, barring temptations with high rewards and individual differences that reduce self-control (i.e., under ideal

  10. The effectiveness of research implementation strategies for promoting evidence-informed policy and management decisions in healthcare: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkies, Mitchell N; Bowles, Kelly-Ann; Skinner, Elizabeth H; Haas, Romi; Lane, Haylee; Haines, Terry P

    2017-11-14

    ) establishing an imperative for practice change, (2) building trust between implementation stakeholders and (3) developing a shared vision, to (4) actioning change mechanisms. This was underpinned by the (5) employment of effective communication strategies and (6) provision of resources to support change. Evidence is developing to support the use of research implementation strategies for promoting evidence-informed policy and management decisions in healthcare. The design of future implementation strategies should be based on the inter-relating factors perceived to be associated with effective strategies. This systematic review was registered with Prospero (record number: 42016032947).

  11. Implementing parallel spreadsheet models for health policy decisions: The impact of unintentional errors on model projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Stephanie L; Bono, Rose S; Nash, Denis; Kimmel, April D

    2018-01-01

    Spreadsheet software is increasingly used to implement systems science models informing health policy decisions, both in academia and in practice where technical capacity may be limited. However, spreadsheet models are prone to unintentional errors that may not always be identified using standard error-checking techniques. Our objective was to illustrate, through a methodologic case study analysis, the impact of unintentional errors on model projections by implementing parallel model versions. We leveraged a real-world need to revise an existing spreadsheet model designed to inform HIV policy. We developed three parallel versions of a previously validated spreadsheet-based model; versions differed by the spreadsheet cell-referencing approach (named single cells; column/row references; named matrices). For each version, we implemented three model revisions (re-entry into care; guideline-concordant treatment initiation; immediate treatment initiation). After standard error-checking, we identified unintentional errors by comparing model output across the three versions. Concordant model output across all versions was considered error-free. We calculated the impact of unintentional errors as the percentage difference in model projections between model versions with and without unintentional errors, using +/-5% difference to define a material error. We identified 58 original and 4,331 propagated unintentional errors across all model versions and revisions. Over 40% (24/58) of original unintentional errors occurred in the column/row reference model version; most (23/24) were due to incorrect cell references. Overall, >20% of model spreadsheet cells had material unintentional errors. When examining error impact along the HIV care continuum, the percentage difference between versions with and without unintentional errors ranged from +3% to +16% (named single cells), +26% to +76% (column/row reference), and 0% (named matrices). Standard error-checking techniques may not

  12. Proposal optimization in nuclear accident emergency decision based on IAHP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xin Jing

    2007-01-01

    On the basis of establishing the multi-layer structure of nuclear accident emergency decision, several decision objectives are synthetically analyzed, and an optimization model of decision proposals for nuclear accident emergency based on interval analytic hierarchy process is proposed in the paper. The model makes comparisons among several emergency decision proposals quantified, and the optimum proposal is selected out, which solved the uncertain and fuzzy decision problem of judgments by experts' experiences in nuclear accidents emergency decision. Case study shows that the optimization result is much more reasonable, objective and reliable than subjective judgments, and it could be decision references for nuclear accident emergency. (authors)

  13. Risk-Based Decision Making for Deterioration Processes Using POMDP

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a method for risk-based decision making for maintenance of deteriorating components, based on the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Unlike most methods, the decision polices do not need to be stationary and can vary according to seasons and near the end...

  14. Descriptive analysis of immunization policy decision making in the Americas Análisis descriptivo de la toma de decisión sobre políticas de vacunación en las Américas

    OpenAIRE

    Julianne E. Burns; Rachel C. Mitrovich; Barbara Jauregui; Cuauhtémoc Ruiz Matus; Jon K. Andrus

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Reducing and eliminating vaccine-preventable diseases requires evidence-based and informed policy decision making. Critical to determining the functionality of the decision-making process for introduction of a new vaccine is understanding the role of the national immunization technical advisory group (ITAG) in each country. The aim of this study is to document the current situation of national level immunization policy decision making for use in the Pan American Health Organizatio...

  15. The Montreal Protocol treaty and its illuminating history of science-policy decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grady, C.

    2017-12-01

    The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, hailed as one of the most effective environmental treaties of all time, has a thirty year history of science-policy decision-making. The partnership between Parties to the Montreal Protocol and its technical assessment panels serve as a basis for understanding successes and evaluating stumbles of global environmental decision-making. Real-world environmental treaty negotiations can be highly time-sensitive, politically motivated, and resource constrained thus scientists and policymakers alike are often unable to confront the uncertainties associated with the multitude of choices. The science-policy relationship built within the framework of the Montreal Protocol has helped constrain uncertainty and inform policy decisions but has also highlighted the limitations of the use of scientific understanding in political decision-making. This talk will describe the evolution of the scientist-policymaker relationship over the history of the Montreal Protocol. Examples will illustrate how the Montreal Protocol's technical panels inform decisions of the country governments and will characterize different approaches pursued by different countries with a particular focus on the recently adopted Kigali Amendment. In addition, this talk will take a deeper dive with an analysis of the historic technical panel assessments on estimating financial resources necessary to enable compliance to the Montreal Protocol compared to the political financial decisions made through the Protocol's Multilateral Fund replenishment negotiation process. Finally, this talk will describe the useful lessons and challenges from these interactions and how they may be applicable in other environmental management frameworks across multiple scales under changing climatic conditions.

  16. Decision aiding in public policy generation and implementation: a multicriteria approach to evaluate territorial resilience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Franca Norese

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available A decision aid process should be the result of an interaction between analysts, decision makers and stakeholders. Decision aiding is sometimes required when the problem situation is new and a formal decision system does not exist. Its role becomes that of facilitating the Intelligence phase of a decision process. In other situations, a criticism of certain policy making processes and their use of data, which may be available in institutional databases or are required as indicators for the decision process, motivates an intervention oriented towards structure knowledge and improvements of these processes. A preliminary study, which includes modelling and application of multi-criteria methods, can clarify a complex and new situation, propose a consistent approach for the later phases of a decision process or propose a different and more effective use of the data. A case study is proposed here to describe this methodological approach in relation to the disaster resilience of municipalities near the mbrone River, in Tuscany (Italy.

  17. Rough set and rule-based multicriteria decision aiding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman Slowinski

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of multicriteria decision aiding is to give the decision maker a recommendation concerning a set of objects evaluated from multiple points of view called criteria. Since a rational decision maker acts with respect to his/her value system, in order to recommend the most-preferred decision, one must identify decision maker's preferences. In this paper, we focus on preference discovery from data concerning some past decisions of the decision maker. We consider the preference model in the form of a set of "if..., then..." decision rules discovered from the data by inductive learning. To structure the data prior to induction of rules, we use the Dominance-based Rough Set Approach (DRSA. DRSA is a methodology for reasoning about data, which handles ordinal evaluations of objects on considered criteria and monotonic relationships between these evaluations and the decision. We review applications of DRSA to a large variety of multicriteria decision problems.

  18. Probabilistic Decision Based Block Partitioning for Future Video Coding

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Zhao; Wang, Shiqi; Zhang, Jian; Wang, Shanshe; Ma, Siwei

    2017-01-01

    , the mode decision problem is casted into a probabilistic framework to select the final partition based on the confidence interval decision strategy. Experimental results show that the proposed CIET algorithm can speed up QTBT block partitioning structure

  19. The role of migration-specific and migration-relevant policies in migrant decision-making in transit

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuschminder - de Guerre, Katie; Koser, Khalid

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines the role of migration-specific and migration-relevant policies in migrant decision-making factors for onwards migration or stay in Greece and Turkey. In this paper we distinguish migration-specific policies from migration-relevant policies in transit and destination countries,

  20. Renewable energy support policy in Spain : An analysis of the decision-making process (1994-2014)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leston, D.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, the decision-making process behind the RE support policy will be explored in order to answer the following research questions: “why has the policy-making process been revised so many times?” and “how can such a drastic change on the RE support policy be explained?” The answer is found

  1. The Felbertauern landslide of 2013: Traffic disruption, regional economic consequences and policy decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfurtscheller, Clemens; Genovese, Elisabetta

    2016-04-01

    The Felbertauern landslide of May 2013 caused the total destruction of approximately 100 meters of road including an avalanche gallery, generating several direct and indirect impacts on the regional-economy. The Felbertauern road, an important traffic arteria for the whole NUTS-3 region East-Tyrol (Austria), was totally blocked for several weeks. Short after the event, regional decision makers were hardly in need for an estimation of the regional-economic impacts of the road blockage to opt for alternatives to reopen the road. So, two weeks after the event, an analysis of the possible effects was carried out using only scattered information and statistical data. The analysis is based on a three-month interruption scenario. Retrospectively the road blockage was only two months. Due to the fact that short after the event no up-to-date data on regional-economics at necessary scales was available, impacts on tourism by analysing overnight stays, additional transportation costs and time losses for the local companies were calculated. Using these numbers, a cost-benefit-analysis was carried out for a projected bypass, a mid-term 1.5 kilometer long route as an alternative to the destroyed road. Finally, the impacts on the local companies were severe, due to additional transportation costs of approx. Euro 1.4 million and Euro 76 000 additional time costs using an alternative approach. The impacts on regional tourism were calculated with Euro 7.7 to 10.7 million - that means 0.6 to 0.8% of the total economic output of the region. The study shows the strong impact of indirect and business interruption costs on regional economies and describes the major problems faced during the study - in particular the low availability of input data. The results of consistent cost assessment are critical for decision makers who are responsible for the development of policies to prevent the impacts on societies.

  2. Cancer beliefs and prevention policies: comparing Canadian decision-maker and general population views.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nykiforuk, Candace I J; Wild, T Cameron; Raine, Kim D

    2014-12-01

    The knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs of key policy influencers and the general public can support or hinder the development of public policies that support cancer prevention. To address gaps in knowledge concerning healthy public policy development, views on cancer causation and endorsement of policy alternatives for cancer prevention among government influencers (elected members of legislative assemblies and senior ministry bureaucrats), non-governmental influencers (school board chairs and superintendents, print media editors and reporters, and workplace presidents and senior human resource managers), and the general public were compared. Two structured surveys, one administered to a convenience sample of policy influencers (government and non-governmental) and the other to a randomly selected sample of the general public, were used. The aim of these surveys was to understand knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs regarding health promotion principles and the priority and acceptability of policy actions to prevent four behavioral risk factors for cancer (tobacco use, alcohol misuse, unhealthy eating, and physical inactivity). Surveys were administered in Alberta and Manitoba, two comparable Canadian provinces. Although all groups demonstrated higher levels of support for individualistic policies (e.g., health education campaigns) than for fiscal and legislative measures, the general public expressed consistently greater support than policy influencers for using evidence-based policies (e.g., tax incentives or subsidies for healthy behaviors). These results suggest that Canadian policy influencers may be less open that the general public to adopt healthy public policies for cancer prevention, with potential detriment to cancer rates.

  3. The Effect of Central Bank Policy Decisions on Stock Market Returns in Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés A. Acuña

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the stock-market response to monetary policy decisions made by the Central Bank of Chile.  We use a methodology designed for the study of low frequency events and monthly data from September 2001 to December 2013 to estimate the effect of anticipated and unanticipated changes in the Chilean monetary policy interest rate on stock returns.  In contrast to the research findings in the literature for the U.S., we find no evidence that monetary surprises affect Chilean stock returns.

  4. Modeling urban expansion policy scenarios using an agent-based approach for Guangzhou Metropolitan Region of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangjin Tian

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Policy makers and the human decision processes of urban planning have an impact on urban expansion. The behaviors and decision modes of regional authority, real estate developer, resident, and farmer agents and their interactions can be simulated by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP method. The driving factors are regressed with urban dynamics instead of static land-use types. Agents' behaviors and decision modes have an impact on the urban dynamic pattern by adjusting parameter weights. We integrate an agent-based model (ABM with AHP to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Three policy scenarios for baseline development, rapid development, and green land protection have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Guangzhou metropolitan region. A future policy scenario analysis can help policy makers to understand the possible results. These individuals can adjust their policies and decisions according to their different objectives.

  5. Decision Analysis and Policy Formulation for Technology-Specific Renewable Energy Targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okioga, Irene Teshamulwa

    This study establishes a decision making procedure using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for a U.S. national renewable portfolio standard, and proposes technology-specific targets for renewable electricity generation for the country. The study prioritizes renewable energy alternatives based on a multi-perspective view: from the public, policy makers, and investors' points-of-view, and uses multiple criteria for ranking the alternatives to generate a unified prioritization scheme. During this process, it considers a 'quadruple bottom-line' approach (4P), i.e. reflecting technical "progress", social "people", economic 'profits", and environmental "planet" factors. The AHP results indicated that electricity generation from solar PV ranked highest, and biomass energy ranked lowest. A "Benefits/Cost Incentives/Mandates" (BCIM) model was developed to identify where mandates are needed, and where incentives would instead be required to bring down costs for technologies that have potential for profitable deployment. The BCIM model balances the development of less mature renewable energy technologies, without the potential for rising near-term electricity rates for consumers. It also ensures that recommended policies do not lead to growth of just one type of technology--the "highest-benefit, least-cost" technology. The model indicated that mandates would be suited for solar PV, and incentives generally for geothermal and concentrated solar power. Development for biomass energy, as a "low-cost, low-benefits" alternative was recommended at a local rather than national level, mainly due to its low resource potential values. Further, biomass energy generated from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) had the least resource potential compared to other biomass sources. The research developed methodologies and recommendations for biogas electricity targets at WWTPs, to take advantage of the waste-to-energy opportunities.

  6. Political and Economic Decisions and Competition – What is the Efficient Antimonopoly Policy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irakli Lekvinadze

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the influence of economic decisions which affect the antitrust and competition support policies. Many countries provide governmental initiatives for improving antirust legislation. There is an effort to develop efficient legislation, to define market boundaries, to identify dominating companies, and to prevent cartel development. A review of the literature has shown that refined legislation does not work. Qualified and non-politicized economic decisions are required to provide fair and equitable competition in the marketplace. The discussions of various researchers are profiled on the economic issues. This article analyzes The Republic of Georgia’s 20 year unique market experiences in Eastern Europe. Recommendations have been proposed to increase the effectiveness of an anti-monopoly policy. Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4

  7. Practical risk-based decision making: Good decisions made efficiently

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haire, M.J.; Guthrie, V.; Walker, D.; Singer, R.

    1995-01-01

    The Robotics and Process Systems Division of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the Westinghouse Savannah River Company have teamed with JBF Associates, Inc. to address risk-based robotic planning. The objective of the project is to provide systematic, risk-based relative comparisons of competing alternatives for solving clean-up problems at DOE facilities. This paper presents the methodology developed, describes the software developed to efficiently apply the methodology, and discusses the results of initial applications for DOE. The paper also addresses current work in applying the approach to problems in other industries (including an example from the hydrocarbon processing industry)

  8. Building Energy Consumption Pattern Analysis of Detached Housing for the Policy Decision Simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Jiyoun; Lee, Seung-Eon

    2018-03-01

    The Korean government announced its plan to raise the previous reduction goal of greenhouse gas emission from buildings by 26.9% until 2020 on July 2015. Therefore, policies regarding efficiency in the building energy are implemented fast, but the level of building owners and market understanding is low in general, and the government service system which supports decision making for implementing low-energy buildings has not been provided yet. The purpose of this study is to present the design direction for establishing user customized building energy database to perform a role to provide autonomous ecosystem of low-energy buildings. In order to reduce energy consumption in buildings, it is necessary to carry out the energy performance analysis based on the characteristics of target building. By analysing about 20-thousand cases of the amount of housing energy consumption in Korea, this study suggested the real energy consumption pattern by building types. Also, the energy performance of a building could be determined by energy consumption, but previous building energy consumption analysis programs required expert knowledge and experience in program usage, so it was difficult for normal building users to use such programs. Therefore, a measure to provide proper default using the level of data which general users with no expert knowledge regarding building energy could enter easily was suggested in this study.

  9. Asheville, North Carolina: Reducing Electricity Demand through Building Programs & Policies (City Energy: From Data to Decisions)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Office of Strategic Programs, Strategic Priorities and Impact Analysis Team

    2017-09-29

    This fact sheet "Asheville, North Carolina: Reducing Electricity Demand through Building Programs & Policies" explains how the City of Asheville used data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Cities Leading through Energy Analysis and Planning (Cities-LEAP) and the State and Local Energy Data (SLED) programs to inform its city energy planning. It is one of ten fact sheets in the "City Energy: From Data to Decisions" series.

  10. Risk-based decision making and risk management of European Union regional programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michalopoulos Evangelos

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a generalized method for management decision making incorporating risk assessment techniques. The risk based decision making methodology is applied to European Union expenditure programs used to implement its regional policy, such as the community support framework, community initiatives, special initiatives and other European policies. An example is presented for the development of an audit (inspection program in the region of West Macedonia, Greece, during the implementation of the 3rd Community Structural Support Framework Operational Program. The generic nature of the method permits its use in the management of similar European regional programs in Greece and other European countries. It is also applicable to many other industries interested in applying risk-based management decisions to physical or process based systems. .

  11. Building a maintenance policy through a multi-criterion decision-making model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faghihinia, Elahe; Mollaverdi, Naser

    2012-08-01

    A major competitive advantage of production and service systems is establishing a proper maintenance policy. Therefore, maintenance managers should make maintenance decisions that best fit their systems. Multi-criterion decision-making methods can take into account a number of aspects associated with the competitiveness factors of a system. This paper presents a multi-criterion decision-aided maintenance model with three criteria that have more influence on decision making: reliability, maintenance cost, and maintenance downtime. The Bayesian approach has been applied to confront maintenance failure data shortage. Therefore, the model seeks to make the best compromise between these three criteria and establish replacement intervals using Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE II), integrating the Bayesian approach with regard to the preference of the decision maker to the problem. Finally, using a numerical application, the model has been illustrated, and for a visual realization and an illustrative sensitivity analysis, PROMETHEE GAIA (the visual interactive module) has been used. Use of PROMETHEE II and PROMETHEE GAIA has been made with Decision Lab software. A sensitivity analysis has been made to verify the robustness of certain parameters of the model.

  12. New institutional mechanisms to bridge the information gap between climate science and public policy decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, W.; Gulledge, J. M.

    2010-12-01

    Many decision makers lack actionable scientific information needed to prepare for future challenges associated with climate change. Although the scope and quality of available scientific information has increased dramatically in recent years, this information does not always reach - or is not presented in a form that is useful to - decision makers who need it. The producer (i.e. scientists) community tends to be stovepiped, even though consumers (i.e. decision makers) often need interdisciplinary science and analysis. Consumers, who may also be stovepiped in various agencies or subject areas, may lack familiarity with or access to these separate communities, as well as the tools or time to navigate scientific information and disciplines. Closing the communication gap between these communities could be facilitated by institutionalizing processes designed for this purpose. We recommend a variety of mainstreaming policies within the consumer community, as well as mechanisms to generate a strong demand signal that will resonate more strongly with the producer community. We also recommend institutional reforms and methods of incentivizing policy-oriented scientific analysis within the producer community. Our recommendations focus on improving information flow to national security and foreign policy decision makers, but many are relevant to public policy writ large. Recommendations for Producers 1. The scientific community should formally encourage collaborations between natural and social scientists and reward publications in interdisciplinary outlets Incentives could include research funding and honorary awards recognizing service to public policy. 2. Academic merit review should reward research grants and publications targeted at interdisciplinary and/or policy-oriented audiences. Reforms of merit review may require new policies and engaged institutional leadership. Recommendations for Consumers 1. Congress should amend Title VI of the National Defense Education Act

  13. Prioritizing Congenital Syphilis Control in South China: A Decision Analytic Model to Inform Policy Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Nicholas X.; Rydzak, Chara; Yang, Li-Gang; Vickerman, Peter; Yang, Bin; Peeling, Rosanna W.; Hawkes, Sarah; Chen, Xiang-Sheng; Tucker, Joseph D.

    2013-01-01

    Background Syphilis is a major public health problem in many regions of China, with increases in congenital syphilis (CS) cases causing concern. The Chinese Ministry of Health recently announced a comprehensive 10-y national syphilis control plan focusing on averting CS. The decision analytic model presented here quantifies the impact of the planned strategies to determine whether they are likely to meet the goals laid out in the control plan. Methods and Findings Our model incorporated data on age-stratified fertility, female adult syphilis cases, and empirical syphilis transmission rates to estimate the number of CS cases associated with prenatal syphilis infection on a yearly basis. Guangdong Province was the focus of this analysis because of the availability of high-quality demographic and public health data. Each model outcome was simulated 1,000 times to incorporate uncertainty in model inputs. The model was validated using data from a CS intervention program among 477,656 women in China. Sensitivity analyses were performed to identify which variables are likely to be most influential in achieving Chinese and international policy goals. Increasing prenatal screening coverage was the single most effective strategy for reducing CS cases. An incremental increase in prenatal screening from the base case of 57% coverage to 95% coverage was associated with 106 (95% CI: 101, 111) CS cases averted per 100,000 live births (58% decrease). The policy strategies laid out in the national plan led to an outcome that fell short of the target, while a four-pronged comprehensive syphilis control strategy consisting of increased prenatal screening coverage, increased treatment completion, earlier prenatal screening, and improved syphilis test characteristics was associated with 157 (95% CI: 154, 160) CS cases averted per 100,000 live births (85% decrease). Conclusions The Chinese national plan provides a strong foundation for syphilis control, but more comprehensive measures

  14. Management challenges at the intersection of public policy environments and strategic decision making in public hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longest, Beaufort B

    2012-01-01

    Hospitals in the United States are heavily impacted by public policies that affect them. For example, Medicare and Medicaid programs account for more than half the revenue in most of the nation's almost 5,000 community hospitals, including the almost 1,100 public hospitals controlled by state and local governments (American Hospital Association, 2012). The public hospitals are especially closely aligned with and controlled by governmental entities compared with hospitals with other kinds of sponsorship. This article addresses the management challenges at the intersection of the strategic management of public hospitals and their public policy environments. Public hospitals are complicated entities designed not only to provide health services but also in many cases to play key roles in health-related research and education and to play important general economic development roles in their communities. The multi-faceted strategic decision making in these organizations is as heavily affected by their public policy environments as by their business, demographic, technological or other external environments. Effectively managing the intersection of their public policy environments and their strategic management is indeed vital for contemporary public hospitals. This article is intended to clarify certain aspects of this intersection through a description and model of the strategic activity in public hospitals and the connection between this activity and their external environments. Specific attention is focused on the concept of public policy environments and their features. Attention is also given to how managers can assess public policy environments and incorporate the results into strategic activities.

  15. Economic policy uncertainty, credit risks and banks lending decisions: Evidence from Chinese commercial banks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qinwei Chi; Wenjing Li

    2017-01-01

    Using data for Chinese commercial banks from 2000 to 2014, this paper examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty(EPU) on banks’ credit risks and lending decisions. The results reveal significantly positive connections among EPU and non-performing loan ratios, loan concentrations and the normal loan migration rate. This indicates that EPU increases banks’ credit risks and negatively influences loan size, especially for joint-equity banks. Given the increasing credit risks generated by EPU, banks can improve operational performance by reducing loan sizes. Further research indicates that the effects of EPU on banks’ credit risks and lending decisions are moderated by the marketization level, with financial depth moderating the effect on banks’ credit risks and strengthening it on lending decisions.

  16. Tools to Help Society in Decision Making: Legal and Policy Trends. Proceedings of a Topical Session

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vari, Anna; Caddy, Joanne; ); Kotra, Janet P.; Pancher, Bertrand; Tromans, Stephan

    2009-01-01

    As part of its programme of work the OECD/NEA Forum on Stakeholder Confidence continues to investigate the theme of 'Tools and Processes to Help Society in Decision Making'. Following a presentation in June 2007 of environmental law and its implications for stakeholder involvement in decision making, the FSC decided to take a look at a variety of legal and policy issues. In particular, interest was expressed in seeing how law and policy may define which stakeholders must be consulted or engaged, and to consider when and whether that is helpful. A topical session was held on June 5, 2008 during the FSC's ninth regular meeting. Case studies were presented from the US, the UK, and France. An international survey of means for open and inclusive policy making was presented by the OECD Government directorate. The results of a questionnaire filled by FSC members served as the basis of the introductory presentation. Two sub-groups retired to discuss the material and a Rapporteur from each delivered feedback in plenary. These proceedings include a summary of the findings and discussions (Anna Vari), and the slides (some with accompanying text) provided for each case study: 1 - Open and Inclusive Policy Making: Emerging Practice in OECD Countries (Joanne Caddy); 2 - Deciding Whether to Authorized Construction at Yucca Mountain Explaining NRC's Process (Janet P. Kotra); 3 - Rights and Obligations under International Conventions (Stephan Tromans); 4 - Setting Criteria for the Representativeness of NGO/CSOs: Report on Hearings at the Request of France's Prime Minister (Bertrand Pancher)

  17. Governing irrationality, or a more than rational government? Reflections on the rescientisation of decision making in British public policy

    OpenAIRE

    Mark Whitehead; Rhys Jones; Jessica Pykett

    2011-01-01

    It appears that recent debates within human geography, and the broader social sciences, concerning the more-than-rational constitution of human decision making are now being paralleled by changes in the ways in which public policy makers are conceiving of and addressing human behaviour. This paper focuses on the rise of so-called Behaviour Change policies in public policy in the UK. Behaviour Change policies draw on the behavioural insights being developed within the neurosciences, behavioura...

  18. Trialling an electronic decision aid for policy developers to support ageing well.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Elizabeth; Ellis, Leonie; Tin, Eh Eh; Boyer, Kim; Orpin, Peter

    2015-01-01

    The complex process of developing policies and planning services requires the compilation and collation of evidence from multiple sources. With the increasing numbers of people living longer there will be a high demand for a wide range of aged care services to support people in ageing well. The premise of ageing well is based on providing an ageing population with quality care and resources that support their ongoing needs. These include affordable healthcare, end of life care improvement, mental health services improvement, care and support improvement for people with dementia, and support for healthy ageing. The National Health and Medical Research Council funded a research project to develop a policy tool to provide a framework to assist policy makers and service planners in the area of ageing well in rural and regional Australia. It was identified that development of an electronic version of the policy tool could be useful resulting in a small pilot development being undertaken and tested with policy makers and service planners. This paper describes the development and trialling of a tablet based application used to assess the acceptability of computerised forms for participants actively involved in policy development. It reports on the policy developer's experience of the electronic tool to support ageing well policy making based on evidence.

  19. Analysing pseudoephedrine/methamphetamine policy options in Australia using multi-criteria decision modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Matthew; Wong, Gabriel T W; Ransley, Janet; Smith, Christine

    2016-06-01

    In this paper we capture and synthesize the unique knowledge of experts so that choices regarding policy measures to address methamphetamine consumption and dependency in Australia can be strengthened. We examine perceptions of the: (1) influence of underlying factors that impact on the methamphetamine problem; (2) importance of various models of intervention that have the potential to affect the success of policies; and (3) efficacy of alternative pseudoephedrine policy options. We adopt a multi-criteria decision model to unpack factors that affect decisions made by experts and examine potential variations on weight/preference among groups. Seventy experts from five groups (i.e. academia (18.6%), government and policy (27.1%), health (18.6%), pharmaceutical (17.1%) and police (18.6%)) in Australia participated in the survey. Social characteristics are considered the most important underlying factor, prevention the most effective strategy and Project STOP the most preferred policy option with respect to reducing methamphetamine consumption and dependency in Australia. One-way repeated ANOVAs indicate a statistically significant difference with regards to the influence of underlying factors (F(2.3, 144.5)=11.256, pmethamphetamine consumption and dependency. Most experts support the use of preventative mechanisms to inhibit drug initiation and delayed drug uptake. Compared to other policies, Project STOP (which aims to disrupt the initial diversion of pseudoephedrine) appears to be a more preferable preventative mechanism to control the production and subsequent sale and use of methamphetamine. This regulatory civil law lever engages third parties in controlling drug-related crime. The literature supports third-party partnerships as it engages experts who have knowledge and expertise with respect to prevention and harm minimization. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. The Formation of New Monetary Policies: Decisions of Central Banks on the Great Recession

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Esther Castro

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The effect that the Great Recession had on monetary policies has led to the profound reorientation of central banks’ actions from 2007 to 2013. The purpose of this work is to analyze the monetary policies applied by the main central banks, mainly the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve System of USA and the Bank of Japan, in order to raise thoughts on the guidelines that central banks should follow in the future. In the first section the bases of monetary policy before the crisis are described; in the second we explain the change in the orientation of the role of central banks during the crisis; and finally, we synthesize the bases on which the economic debate is taking place on the orientation of future monetary policies. We conclude that, in so far as the inoperativeness of transmission mechanisms still persists, monetary policies will remain in a process of change.

  1. Value-based reimbursement decisions for orphan drugs: a scoping review and decision framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulden, Mike; Stafinski, Tania; Menon, Devidas; McCabe, Christopher

    2015-03-01

    The rate of development of new orphan drugs continues to grow. As a result, reimbursing orphan drugs on an exceptional basis is increasingly difficult to sustain from a health system perspective. An understanding of the value that societies attach to providing orphan drugs at the expense of other health technologies is now recognised as an important input to policy debates. The aim of this work was to scope the social value arguments that have been advanced relating to the reimbursement of orphan drugs, and to locate these within a coherent decision-making framework to aid reimbursement decisions in the presence of limited healthcare resources. A scoping review of the peer reviewed and grey literature was undertaken, consisting of seven phases: (1) identifying the research question; (2) searching for relevant studies; (3) selecting studies; (4) charting, extracting and tabulating data; (5) analyzing data; (6) consulting relevant experts; and (7) presenting results. The points within decision processes where the identified value arguments would be incorporated were then located. This mapping was used to construct a framework characterising the distinct role of each value in informing decision making. The scoping review identified 19 candidate decision factors, most of which can be characterised as either value-bearing or 'opportunity cost'-determining, and also a number of value propositions and pertinent sources of preference information. We were able to synthesize these into a coherent decision-making framework. Our framework may be used to structure policy discussions and to aid transparency about the values underlying reimbursement decisions for orphan drugs. These values ought to be consistently applied to all technologies and populations affected by the decision.

  2. Modeling Based Decision Support Environment, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Phoenix Integration's vision is the creation of an intuitive human-in-the-loop engineering environment called Decision Navigator that leverages recent advances in...

  3. Evidence-based policy versus morality policy: the case of syringe access programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Saxe Zerden, Lisa; O'Quinn, Erin; Davis, Corey

    2015-01-01

    Evidence-based practice (EBP) combines proven interventions with clinical experience, ethics, and client preferences to inform treatment and services. Although EBP is integrated into most aspects of social work and public health, at times EBP is at odds with social policy. In this article the authors explore the paradox of evidence-based policy using syringe access programs (SAP) as a case example, and review methods of bridging the gap between the emphasis on EBP and lack of evidence informing SAP policy. Analysis includes the overuse of morality policy and examines historical and current theories why this paradox exists. Action steps are highlighted for creating effective policy and opportunities for public health change. Strategies on reframing the problem and shifting target population focus to garner support for evidence-based policy change are included. This interdisciplinary understanding of the way in which these factors converge is a critical first step in moving beyond morality-based policy toward evidence-based policy.

  4. Deciding Who Decides Questions at the Intersection of School Finance Reform Litigation and Standards-Based Accountability Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Superfine, Benjamin Michael

    2009-01-01

    Courts hearing school finance reform cases have recently begun to consider several issues related to standards-based accountability policies. This convergence of school finance reform litigation and standards-based accountability policies represents a chance for the courts to reallocate decision-making authority for each type of reform across the…

  5. Design of coordinated energy and environmental policies: use of multi-criteria decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greening, L.A.; Bernow, Steve

    2004-01-01

    Conventional economic modeling tools that depend upon one criterion to select among possible alternatives for inclusion in an energy or environmental policy have limitations. Formulation of both sets of policies involves large numbers of stakeholders with differing views and preferences. Those views and preferences cannot always be determined in advance or with certainty since many of the attributes of these policy alternatives are non-market valued. The use of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods in an integrated assessment (IA) framework offers a far better alternative to cost/benefit and similar methods. To facilitate understanding of MCDM methods, we offer a typology for this broad class of models, suggest some of the types of problems that may be analyzed with these methods, and recommend the implementation of several MCDM methods in currently evolving IA frameworks. Depending upon the choice of method from this family of methods, a wide range of attributes associated with multi-pollutant reduction and energy system development strategies, and a diversity of stakeholder preferences may be incorporated into the analysis. The resulting policy space can then provide a basis for comparison and selection of policy alternatives in a political or negotiated process

  6. Health decision making: lynchpin of evidence-based practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spring, Bonnie

    2008-01-01

    Health decision making is both the lynchpin and the least developed aspect of evidence-based practice. The evidence-based practice process requires integrating the evidence with consideration of practical resources and patient preferences and doing so via a process that is genuinely collaborative. Yet, the literature is largely silent about how to accomplish integrative, shared decision making. for evidence-based practice are discussed for 2 theories of clinician decision making (expected utility and fuzzy trace) and 2 theories of patient health decision making (transtheoretical model and reasoned action). Three suggestions are offered. First, it would be advantageous to have theory-based algorithms that weight and integrate the 3 data strands (evidence, resources, preferences) in different decisional contexts. Second, patients, not providers, make the decisions of greatest impact on public health, and those decisions are behavioral. Consequently, theory explicating how provider-patient collaboration can influence patient lifestyle decisions made miles from the provider's office is greatly needed. Third, although the preponderance of data on complex decisions supports a computational approach, such an approach to evidence-based practice is too impractical to be widely applied at present. More troublesomely, until patients come to trust decisions made computationally more than they trust their providers' intuitions, patient adherence will remain problematic. A good theory of integrative, collaborative health decision making remains needed.

  7. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  8. Information integration in perceptual and value-based decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Tsetsos, K.

    2012-01-01

    Research on the psychology and neuroscience of simple, evidence-based choices has led to an impressive progress in capturing the underlying mental processes as optimal mechanisms that make the fastest decision for a specified accuracy. The idea that decision-making is an optimal process stands in contrast with findings in more complex, motivation-based decisions, focussed on multiple goals with trade-offs. Here, a number of paradoxical and puzzling choice behaviours have been r...

  9. A Web-based graphical user interface for evidence-based decision making for health care allocations in rural areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuurman, Nadine; Leight, Margo; Berube, Myriam

    2008-01-01

    Background The creation of successful health policy and location of resources increasingly relies on evidence-based decision-making. The development of intuitive, accessible tools to analyse, display and disseminate spatial data potentially provides the basis for sound policy and resource allocation decisions. As health services are rationalized, the development of tools such graphical user interfaces (GUIs) is especially valuable at they assist decision makers in allocating resources such that the maximum number of people are served. GIS can used to develop GUIs that enable spatial decision making. Results We have created a Web-based GUI (wGUI) to assist health policy makers and administrators in the Canadian province of British Columbia make well-informed decisions about the location and allocation of time-sensitive service capacities in rural regions of the province. This tool integrates datasets for existing hospitals and services, regional populations and road networks to allow users to ascertain the percentage of population in any given service catchment who are served by a specific health service, or baskets of linked services. The wGUI allows policy makers to map trauma and obstetric services against rural populations within pre-specified travel distances, illustrating service capacity by region. Conclusion The wGUI can be used by health policy makers and administrators with little or no formal GIS training to visualize multiple health resource allocation scenarios. The GUI is poised to become a critical decision-making tool especially as evidence is increasingly required for distribution of health services. PMID:18793428

  10. Reconciliation of Decision-Making Heuristics Based on Decision Trees Topologies and Incomplete Fuzzy Probabilities Sets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doubravsky, Karel; Dohnal, Mirko

    2015-01-01

    Complex decision making tasks of different natures, e.g. economics, safety engineering, ecology and biology, are based on vague, sparse, partially inconsistent and subjective knowledge. Moreover, decision making economists / engineers are usually not willing to invest too much time into study of complex formal theories. They require such decisions which can be (re)checked by human like common sense reasoning. One important problem related to realistic decision making tasks are incomplete data sets required by the chosen decision making algorithm. This paper presents a relatively simple algorithm how some missing III (input information items) can be generated using mainly decision tree topologies and integrated into incomplete data sets. The algorithm is based on an easy to understand heuristics, e.g. a longer decision tree sub-path is less probable. This heuristic can solve decision problems under total ignorance, i.e. the decision tree topology is the only information available. But in a practice, isolated information items e.g. some vaguely known probabilities (e.g. fuzzy probabilities) are usually available. It means that a realistic problem is analysed under partial ignorance. The proposed algorithm reconciles topology related heuristics and additional fuzzy sets using fuzzy linear programming. The case study, represented by a tree with six lotteries and one fuzzy probability, is presented in details.

  11. Reconciliation of Decision-Making Heuristics Based on Decision Trees Topologies and Incomplete Fuzzy Probabilities Sets.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karel Doubravsky

    Full Text Available Complex decision making tasks of different natures, e.g. economics, safety engineering, ecology and biology, are based on vague, sparse, partially inconsistent and subjective knowledge. Moreover, decision making economists / engineers are usually not willing to invest too much time into study of complex formal theories. They require such decisions which can be (rechecked by human like common sense reasoning. One important problem related to realistic decision making tasks are incomplete data sets required by the chosen decision making algorithm. This paper presents a relatively simple algorithm how some missing III (input information items can be generated using mainly decision tree topologies and integrated into incomplete data sets. The algorithm is based on an easy to understand heuristics, e.g. a longer decision tree sub-path is less probable. This heuristic can solve decision problems under total ignorance, i.e. the decision tree topology is the only information available. But in a practice, isolated information items e.g. some vaguely known probabilities (e.g. fuzzy probabilities are usually available. It means that a realistic problem is analysed under partial ignorance. The proposed algorithm reconciles topology related heuristics and additional fuzzy sets using fuzzy linear programming. The case study, represented by a tree with six lotteries and one fuzzy probability, is presented in details.

  12. Constructing regional advantage: platform policies based on related variety and differentiated knowledge bases.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asheim, B.T.; Boschma, R.A.; Cooke, P.

    2011-01-01

    Constructing regional advantage: platform policies based on related variety and differentiated knowledge bases, Regional Studies. This paper presents a regional innovation policy model based on the idea of constructing regional advantage. This policy model brings together concepts like related

  13. Who should donate blood? Policy decisions on donor deferral criteria should protect recipients and be fair to donors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brailsford, S R; Kelly, D; Kohli, H; Slowther, A; Watkins, N A

    2015-08-01

    An important element in the development of voluntary blood donation schemes throughout the world has been the attention given to minimising the risk to recipients of donated blood, primarily the risk of transfusion transmitted infections. In response to the appearance of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the 1980s a range of national policies emerged that excluded populations at high risk of contracting HIV from donating blood, with a particular focus on men who have sex with men (MSM), the primary reason being the protection of recipients of donated blood. Recently some countries, including the UK, have revised their policies, informed by advances in screening tests, epidemiological evidence of transmission rates and an increasing concern about unfair discrimination of specific groups in society. Policy makers face a difficult task of balancing safety of recipients; an adequate blood supply for those who require transfusion; and societal/legal obligations to treat everyone fairly. Given that no transfusion is risk free, the question is what degree of risk is acceptable in order to meet the needs of recipients and society. Decisions about acceptance of risk are complex and policy makers who set acceptable risk levels must provide ethically justifiable reasons for their decisions. We suggest it is possible to provide a set of reasons that stakeholders could agree are relevant based on careful evaluation of the evidence of all relevant risks and explicit acknowledgement of other morally relevant values. We describe using such a process in the Safety of Blood Tissue and Organs (SaBTO) review of donor deferral criteria related to sexual behaviour. © 2015 British Blood Transfusion Society.

  14. Evidence-based surgery: Dissemination, communication, decision aids

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knops, A.M.

    2013-01-01

    Surgeons are expected to make treatment decisions that are based on the best available evidence. Moreover, they are called to recognise that important decisions should also be shared with patients. While dissemination of evidence-based surgery and communication of evidence to patients have been

  15. Implementing evidence-based policy in a network setting: road safety policy in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bax, Charlotte; de Jong, Martin; Koppenjan, Joop

    2010-01-01

    In the early 1990s, in order to improve road safety in The Netherlands, the Institute for Road Safety Research (SWOV) developed an evidence-based "Sustainable Safety" concept. Based on this concept, Dutch road safety policy, was seen as successful and as a best practice in Europe. In The Netherlands, the policy context has now changed from a sectoral policy setting towards a fragmented network in which safety is a facet of other transport-related policies. In this contribution, it is argued that the implementation strategy underlying Sustainable Safety should be aligned with the changed context. In order to explore the adjustments needed, two perspectives of policy implementation are discussed: (1) national evidence-based policies with sectoral implementation; and (2) decentralized negotiation on transport policy in which road safety is but one aspect. We argue that the latter approach matches the characteristics of the newly evolved policy context best, and conclude with recommendations for reformulating the implementation strategy.

  16. The Impacts of Subsidy Policies on Vaccination Decisions in Contact Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Hai-Feng; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Xu, Xiao-Ke; Small, Michael; Wang, Bing-Hong

    2012-01-01

    Often, vaccination programs are carried out based on self-interest rather than being mandatory. Owing to the perceptions about risks associated with vaccines and the `herd immunity' effect, it may provide suboptimal vaccination coverage for the population as a whole. In this case, some subsidy policies may be offered by the government to promote vaccination coverage. But, not all subsidy policies are effective in controlling the transmission of infectious diseases. We address the question of ...

  17. Lessons learned from applying external input to DOE policy decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imholz, R.M.; Hindman, T.B. Jr.; Brubaker, D.M.

    1990-01-01

    Our nation has entered an era in which the public is demanding clean up and restoration of its environment, understandable information, and participation in decision making. The US Department of Energy's (DOE's) culture, which grew out of the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) culture of classification, compartmentalization, and strict-need-to-know dissemination of information, was in direct conflict with this demand for public involvement. The DOE recognized this and committed to changing their culture into one of openness and public involvement in decision making and policy direction. This paper reports that as a result, DOE created a number of external review groups, one of them being the State and Tribal Government Working Group (STGWG). The STGWG was created to review the first Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Five-Year Plan. The Five-Year Plan establishes an agenda for compliance and cleanup of DOE installations against which progress can be measured

  18. Evidence for the credibility of health economic models for health policy decision-making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søgaard, Rikke; Lindholt, Jes S.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the credibility of health economic models of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms for health policy decision-making has improved since 2005 when a systematic review by Campbell et al. concluded that reporting standards were poor and there was divergence between...... benefited from general advances in health economic modelling and some improvements in reporting were noted. However, the low level of agreement between studies in model structures and assumptions, and difficulty in justifying these (convergent validity), remain a threat to the credibility of health economic...... models. Decision-makers should not accept the results of a modelling study if the methods are not fully transparent and justified. Modellers should, whenever relevant, supplement a primary report of results with a technical report detailing and discussing the methodological choices made....

  19. Integrating policy-based management and SLA performance monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tzong-Jye; Lin, Chin-Yi; Chang, Shu-Hsin; Yen, Meng-Tzu

    2001-10-01

    Policy-based management system provides the configuration capability for the system administrators to focus on the requirements of customers. The service level agreement performance monitoring mechanism helps system administrators to verify the correctness of policies. However, it is difficult for a device to process the policies directly because the policies are the management concept. This paper proposes a mechanism to decompose a policy into rules that can be efficiently processed by a device. Thus, the device may process the rule and collect the performance statistics information efficiently; and the policy-based management system may collect these performance statistics information and report the service-level agreement performance monitoring information to the system administrator. The proposed policy-based management system achieves both the policy configuration and service-level agreement performance monitoring requirements. A policy consists of a condition part and an action part. The condition part is a Boolean expression of a source host IP group, a destination host IP group, etc. The action part is the parameters of services. We say that an address group is compact if it only consists of a range of IP address that can be denoted by a pair of IP address and corresponding IP mask. If the condition part of a policy only consists of the compact address group, we say that the policy is a rule. Since a device can efficiently process a compact address and a system administrator prefers to define a range of IP address, the policy-based management system has to translate policy into rules and supplements the gaps between policy and rules. The proposed policy-based management system builds the relationships between VPN and policies, policy and rules. Since the system administrator wants to monitor the system performance information of VPNs and policies, the proposed policy-based management system downloads the relationships among VPNs, policies and rules to the

  20. The power of science economic research and European decision-making : the case of energy and environment policies

    CERN Document Server

    Rossetti di Valdalbero, Domenico

    2010-01-01

    This book highlights the interaction between science and politics and between research in economics and European Union policy-making. It focuses on the use of Quantitative tools, Top-down and Bottom-up models in up-stream European decision-making process through five EU policy case studies: energy taxation, climate change, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and internalisation of external costs.

  1. Science-based natural resource management decisions: what are they?

    Science.gov (United States)

    T.J. Mills; T.M. Quigley; F.J. Everest

    2001-01-01

    While many people interested in natural resources management propose science-based decisions, it is not clear what “science-based” means. Science-based decisions are those that result from the full and complete consideration of the relevant science information. We offer five guidelines to focus the scientist’s contributions to science-based decisionmaking and use the...

  2. Parallel constraint satisfaction in memory-based decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glöckner, Andreas; Hodges, Sara D

    2011-01-01

    Three studies sought to investigate decision strategies in memory-based decisions and to test the predictions of the parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS) model for decision making (Glöckner & Betsch, 2008). Time pressure was manipulated and the model was compared against simple heuristics (take the best and equal weight) and a weighted additive strategy. From PCS we predicted that fast intuitive decision making is based on compensatory information integration and that decision time increases and confidence decreases with increasing inconsistency in the decision task. In line with these predictions we observed a predominant usage of compensatory strategies under all time-pressure conditions and even with decision times as short as 1.7 s. For a substantial number of participants, choices and decision times were best explained by PCS, but there was also evidence for use of simple heuristics. The time-pressure manipulation did not significantly affect decision strategies. Overall, the results highlight intuitive, automatic processes in decision making and support the idea that human information-processing capabilities are less severely bounded than often assumed.

  3. A Game-Chain-Based Approach for Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    An, Tingyu; Watanabe, tsunami

    2009-01-01

    Nowadays, with the rapid development of information society, decision-making problems become more and more complicated especially in large scale systems such as infrastructure, environmental and industrial fields, which are usually accompanied by psychological competition between involved parties in a complicated, uncertain and dynamic situation. From a holistic perspective of system, a specific decision-making method which is described as game-chain-based decision making has been proposed in...

  4. Validating the predictions of case-based decision theory

    OpenAIRE

    Radoc, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Real-life decision-makers typically do not know all possible outcomes arising from alternative courses of action. Instead, when people face a problem, they may rely on the recollection of their past personal experience: the situation, the action taken, and the accompanying consequence. In addition, the applicability of a past experience in decision-making may depend on how similar the current problem is to situations encountered previously. Case-based decision theory (CBDT), proposed by Itzha...

  5. CUDT: A CUDA Based Decision Tree Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Win-Tsung Lo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision tree is one of the famous classification methods in data mining. Many researches have been proposed, which were focusing on improving the performance of decision tree. However, those algorithms are developed and run on traditional distributed systems. Obviously the latency could not be improved while processing huge data generated by ubiquitous sensing node in the era without new technology help. In order to improve data processing latency in huge data mining, in this paper, we design and implement a new parallelized decision tree algorithm on a CUDA (compute unified device architecture, which is a GPGPU solution provided by NVIDIA. In the proposed system, CPU is responsible for flow control while the GPU is responsible for computation. We have conducted many experiments to evaluate system performance of CUDT and made a comparison with traditional CPU version. The results show that CUDT is 5∼55 times faster than Weka-j48 and is 18 times speedup than SPRINT for large data set.

  6. Impact of the decision-making environment on policy responses to road worker fatality in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pankratz, Curt J

    2018-01-22

    Fatal accidents often lead to policy changes. However, the existing decision-making environment is critical to policy responses. This study compares the policy responses to similar events in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The key question explores the extent to which the policy decisions in each province differ despite the similarity of the events. Key documents were examined. Provincial court rulings, workplace health & safety incident investigation reports, court transcripts and police reports were used to compare resulting policy changes as well as the socio-political and economic decision-making context. Relevant clauses in resulting legislation were also compared to assess the specific changes that were made in each province. In each province, a young, female highway construction worker was killed. However, the provinces responded in very different ways. In Saskatchewan, the Premier called for recommendations to improve worker safety, initiating an in-depth governmental study and the development of a broad safety strategy. In Manitoba, political and social pressures shifted the decision-making environment and contributed to the rushed passing of a bill focused on traffic fine increases that resulted in record-breaking traffic fine revenue while failing to include broader safety measures. Different decision-making contexts can lead to vastly different policy outcomes even when responding to very similar events. Key differences included time constraints, access to information and the nature of the political process invoked.

  7. Analysis of the decision-support function of policy assessment in real-world policy making in the field of poverty and social inequalities. Case study on migrant integration policies in the Brussels-Capital Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feyaerts, Gille; Deguerry, Murielle; Deboosere, Patrick; De Spiegelaere, Myriam

    2017-01-01

    Despite its high potential to support decision-making, the role of policy assessment in real-world policy making in the field of poverty and social inequalities remains largely questioned. In this study, we analyse policy assessment's role in a context of real-world policymaking, by means of a case study on a legislative proposal on integration policy for immigrant newcomers in the Brussels-Capital Region, for which we evaluate the potential effects on poverty and social inequalities. We first analyse the policy process surrounding the policy proposal – a process that is often treated as a black box within policy assessment research. Understanding the factors that influence and determine the decision-making process, enables us to gain insight into the potential decision-support function(s). Second, we develop an approach to policy assessment that aims to fully exploit its potential to contribute to the functions of both instrumental and conceptual learning. For this purpose, we propose to introduce the approach of realist evaluation and to focus on evaluating the underlying policy intervention theory from the perspective of poverty and social inequalities. Finally, we illustrate this new approach and its added value by applying it to the legislative proposal on integration policy and analyse its contribution to policy-oriented learning. - Highlights: •The field of policy assessment should draw on insights from policy studies. •We unpacked the policymaking black-box to identify the mechanisms of policy change. •The policy process is driven by an interaction of ideas, interests and institutions. •Policy assessment's potential lies in both instrumental and conceptual learning. •We propose to integrate realist evaluation's logic of inquiry within policy assessment.

  8. Assisting Sustainable Forest Management and Forest Policy Planning with the Sim4Tree Decision Support System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Floris Dalemans

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available As European forest policy increasingly focuses on multiple ecosystem services and participatory decision making, forest managers and policy planners have a need for integrated, user-friendly, broad spectrum decision support systems (DSS that address risks and uncertainties, such as climate change, in a robust way and that provide credible advice in a transparent manner, enabling effective stakeholder involvement. The Sim4Tree DSS has been accordingly developed as a user-oriented, modular and multipurpose toolbox. Sim4Tree supports strategic and tactical forestry planning by providing simulations of forest development, ecosystem services potential and economic performance through time, from a regional to a stand scale, under various management and climate regimes. Sim4Tree allows comparing the performance of different scenarios with regard to diverse criteria so as to optimize management choices. This paper explains the concept, characteristics, functionalities, components and use of the current Sim4Tree DSS v2.5, which was parameterized for the region of Flanders, Belgium, but can be flexibly adapted to allow a broader use. When considering the current challenges for forestry DSS, an effort has been made towards the participatory component and towards integration, while the lack of robustness remains Sim4Tree’s weakest point. However, its structural flexibility allows many possibilities for future improvement and extension.

  9. The Use of Economic Evaluation to Inform Newborn Screening Policy Decisions: The Washington State Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosse, Scott D; Thompson, John D; Ding, Yao; Glass, Michael

    2016-06-01

    Newborn screening not only saves lives but can also yield net societal economic benefit, in addition to benefits such as improved quality of life to affected individuals and families. Calculations of net economic benefit from newborn screening include the monetary equivalent of avoided deaths and reductions in costs of care for complications associated with late-diagnosed individuals minus the additional costs of screening, diagnosis, and treatment associated with prompt diagnosis. Since 2001 the Washington State Department of Health has successfully implemented an approach to conducting evidence-based economic evaluations of disorders proposed for addition to the state-mandated newborn screening panel. Economic evaluations can inform policy decisions on the expansion of newborn screening panels. This article documents the use of cost-benefit models in Washington State as part of the rule-making process that resulted in the implementation of screening for medium-chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase (MCAD) deficiency and 4 other metabolic disorders in 2004, cystic fibrosis (CF) in 2006, 15 other metabolic disorders in 2008, and severe combined immune deficiency (SCID) in 2014. We reviewed Washington State Department of Health internal reports and spreadsheet models of expected net societal benefit of adding disorders to the state newborn screening panel. We summarize the assumptions and findings for 2 models (MCAD and CF) and discuss them in relation to findings in the peer-reviewed literature. The MCAD model projected a benefit-cost ratio of 3.4 to 1 based on assumptions of a 20.0 percentage point reduction in infant mortality and a 13.9 percentage point reduction in serious developmental disability. The CF model projected a benefit-cost ratio of 4.0-5.4 to 1 for a discount rate of 3%-4% and a plausible range of 1-2 percentage point reductions in deaths up to age 10 years. The Washington State cost-benefit models of newborn screening were broadly consistent with peer

  10. Feasibility of web-based decision aids in neurological patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Til, Janine Astrid; Drossaert, Constance H.C.; Renzenbrink, Gerbert J.; Snoek, Govert J.; Dijkstra, Evelien; Stiggelbout, Anne M.; IJzerman, Maarten Joost

    2010-01-01

    Decision aids (DAs) may be helpful in improving patients' participation in medical decision-making. We investigated the potential for web-based DAs in a rehabilitation population. Two self-administered DAs focused on the treatment of acquired ankle-foot impairment in stroke and the treatment of

  11. School-Based Decision-Making: The Canadian Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Frank

    1997-01-01

    In Canada, school-based decision making is a political expedient to co-opt public support for public education at the same time as financial resources to schools are being curtailed. School councils are advisory in nature and have no statutory position in either school or school-system decisions. (17 references) (MLF)

  12. Accrual based accounting implementation: An approach for modelling major decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Ratno Agriyanto; Abdul Rohman; Dwi Ratmono; Imam Ghozali

    2016-01-01

    Over the last three decades the main issues of implementation of accrual based accounting government institutions in Indonesia. Implementation of accrual based accounting in government institutions amid debate about the usefulness of accounting information for decision-making. Empirical study shows that the accrual based of accounting information on a government institution is not used for decision making. The research objective was to determine the impact of the implementation of the accrual...

  13. Protocol-based care: the standardisation of decision-making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rycroft-Malone, Jo; Fontenla, Marina; Seers, Kate; Bick, Debra

    2009-05-01

    To explore how protocol-based care affects clinical decision-making. In the context of evidence-based practice, protocol-based care is a mechanism for facilitating the standardisation of care and streamlining decision-making through rationalising the information with which to make judgements and ultimately decisions. However, whether protocol-based care does, in the reality of practice, standardise decision-making is unknown. This paper reports on a study that explored the impact of protocol-based care on nurses' decision-making. Theoretically informed by realistic evaluation and the promoting action on research implementation in health services framework, a case study design using ethnographic methods was used. Two sites were purposively sampled; a diabetic and endocrine unit and a cardiac medical unit. Within each site, data collection included observation, postobservation semi-structured interviews with staff and patients, field notes, feedback sessions and document review. Data were inductively and thematically analysed. Decisions made by nurses in both sites were varied according to many different and interacting factors. While several standardised care approaches were available for use, in reality, a variety of information sources informed decision-making. The primary approach to knowledge exchange and acquisition was person-to-person; decision-making was a social activity. Rarely were standardised care approaches obviously referred to; nurses described following a mental flowchart, not necessarily linked to a particular guideline or protocol. When standardised care approaches were used, it was reported that they were used flexibly and particularised. While the logic of protocol-based care is algorithmic, in the reality of clinical practice, other sources of information supported nurses' decision-making process. This has significant implications for the political goal of standardisation. The successful implementation and judicious use of tools such as

  14. Politics of oil in Venezuela: A decision-making analysis of PDVSA's internationalisation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baena, Cesar E.

    The high degree of international vertical integration achieved by the Venezuelan state oil enterprise, Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA), has placed it among the most important oil multinationals (MNs). The policy of creating downstream outlets through the establishment of foreign direct investments (FDIs) in the form of refinery assets was given the term of 'internationalisation'. By analysing PDVSA's internationalisation policy, the thesis explores the difficulties encountered by a major state-owned enterprise (SOE) from a developing country in its efforts to grow beyond national borders. The study focuses on the impact of democratic bargaining on the process of oil policymaking in Venezuela, stressing the constraints posed by politics on PDVSA's efforts to expand its foreign operations. Specifically, the study examines the intricate policymaking process that shaped the origins and the development of PDVSA's internationalisation policy, underlying the events and factors that influenced each one of its three distinguishable phases: adoption, formulation, and implementation. The tensions between politics and corporate strategy are highlighted at the core of the policymaking process. The study also looks at the relationship between the oil industry and the other two key decision-making centres involved in the oil policymaking process: the executive and Congress. In exploring the ways in which each one of them sought to influence policy outcome, the study attempts to gain insight into the main factors that prompted the tensions among the policy actors involved. Three environments, or pressure-generating centres, constantly exert influence on the oil industry: the oil market, the political context and the government's financial situation. By seeking to determine the industry's response to their pervasive influence on policy formulation and implementation, this research ascertains the extent to which these variables influenced the decision-making process that

  15. Decision-Based Design Integrating Consumer Preferences into Engineering Design

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Wei; Wassenaar, Henk Jan

    2013-01-01

    Building upon the fundamental principles of decision theory, Decision-Based Design: Integrating Consumer Preferences into Engineering Design presents an analytical approach to enterprise-driven Decision-Based Design (DBD) as a rigorous framework for decision making in engineering design.  Once the related fundamentals of decision theory, economic analysis, and econometrics modelling are established, the remaining chapters describe the entire process, the associated analytical techniques, and the design case studies for integrating consumer preference modeling into the enterprise-driven DBD framework. Methods for identifying key attributes, optimal design of human appraisal experiments, data collection, data analysis, and demand model estimation are presented and illustrated using engineering design case studies. The scope of the chapters also provides: •A rigorous framework of integrating the interests from both producer and consumers in engineering design, •Analytical techniques of consumer choice model...

  16. Impact of policy decisions on the future environmental quality of Flanders, Belgium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Steertegem, M.; De Geest, C.; Vancraeynest, L.

    2010-01-01

    The Environmental Outlook 2030 of the Flemish Environment Agency examines to what extent (alternative) policy strategies allow for realizing the European and Flemish targets. This article illustrates two subjects from the scenario report: the future emissions of greenhouse gases and the particulate matter from transport and the future air quality based on the concentrations of fine particles and ozone. [nl

  17. Bridging the gap between evidence and policy for infectious diseases: How models can aid public health decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gwenan M. Knight

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The dominant approach to decision-making in public health policy for infectious diseases relies heavily on expert opinion, which often applies empirical evidence to policy questions in a manner that is neither systematic nor transparent. Although systematic reviews are frequently commissioned to inform specific components of policy (such as efficacy, the same process is rarely applied to the full decision-making process. Mathematical models provide a mechanism through which empirical evidence can be methodically and transparently integrated to address such questions. However, such models are often considered difficult to interpret. In addition, models provide estimates that need to be iteratively re-evaluated as new data or considerations arise. Using the case study of a novel diagnostic for tuberculosis, a framework for improved collaboration between public health decision-makers and mathematical modellers that could lead to more transparent and evidence-driven policy decisions for infectious diseases in the future is proposed. The framework proposes that policymakers should establish long-term collaborations with modellers to address key questions, and that modellers should strive to provide clear explanations of the uncertainty of model structure and outputs. Doing so will improve the applicability of models and clarify their limitations when used to inform real-world public health policy decisions.

  18. A decision support system-based procedure for evaluation and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    with an overview of the web-based Decision Support System (DSS) developed to facilitate its wide adop- tion. .... contributes significant catchment management and water supply functions .... experience in engagement and facilitation methods.

  19. Multi-robot Cooperation Behavior Decision Based on Psychological Values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian JIANG

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The method based on psychology concept has been proved to be a successful tool used for human-robot interaction. But its related research in multi-robot cooperation has remained scarce until recent studies. To solve the problem, a decision-making mechanism based on psychological values is presented to be regarded as the basis of the multi-robot cooperation. Robots give birth to psychological values based on the estimations of environment, teammates and themselves. The mapping relationship between psychological values and cooperation tendency threshold values is set up with artificial neural network. Robots can make decision on the bases of these threshold values in cooperation scenes. Experiments show that the multi-robot cooperation method presented in the paper not only can ensure the rationality of robots’ decision-making, but also can ensure the speediness of robots’ decision-making.

  20. SADA: Ecological Risk Based Decision Support System for Selective Remediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is freeware that implements terrestrial ecological risk assessment and yields a selective remediation design using its integral geographical information system, based on ecological and risk assessment inputs. Selective remediation ...

  1. Structuring AHP-based maintenance policy selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goossens, Adriaan; Basten, Robertus Johannes Ida; Hummel, J. Marjan; van der Wegen, Leonardus L.M.

    2015-01-01

    We aim to structure the maintenance policy selection process for ships, using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Maintenance is an important contributor to reach the intended life-time of capital technical assets, and it is gaining increasing interest and relevance. A maintenance policy is a

  2. Impact of Asymmetric Carbon Information on Supply Chain Decisions under Low-Carbon Policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Through the establishment of the leading manufacturer Stackelberg game model under asymmetric carbon information, this paper investigates the misreporting behaviors of the supply chain members and their influences on supply chain performance. Based on “Benchmarking” allocation mechanism, three policies are considered: carbon emission trading, carbon tax, and a new policy which combined carbon quota and carbon tax mechanism. The results show that, in the three models, the leader in the supply chain, even if he has advantages of carbon information, will not lie about his information. That is because the manufacturer’s misreporting behavior has no effect on supply chain members’ performance. But the retailer will lie about the information when he has carbon information advantage. The high-carbon-emission retailers under the carbon trading policy, all the retailers under the carbon tax policy, and the high-carbon-emission retailers under combined quotas and tax policy would like to understate their carbon emissions. Coordination of revenue sharing contract is studied in supply chain to induce the retailer to declare his real carbon information. Optimal contractual parameters are deduced in the three models, under which the profit of the supply chain can be maximized.

  3. Between Policy-Making and Planning SEA and Strategic Decision-Making in the Danish Energy Sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyhne, Ivar

    2011-01-01

    This article deals with the challenge of approaching decision-making processes through strategic environmental assessment (SEA). It is argued that the interaction between policy-making and planning in strategic decision-making processes is a neglected reason for problems with applying SEA......, as legislation and guidance on SEA primarily approach either the policy or plan level. To substantiate the argument, the extent of interaction is empirically investigated. Four contemporary decision-making processes in the Danish energy sector are mapped as a series of choices. Fundamental changes...... with considerable environmental impacts are decided these years, often without preceding SEA processes. The mapping shows a profound interaction between policy-making and planning. In this interaction, public consultation, systematic environmental analyses, and transparency on alternatives are primarily related...

  4. The Boardroom Perspective: How Does Energy Efficiency Policy Influence Decision Making in Industry?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    This report delves into the major factors or driving forces that decision makers within a large industrial company take into account when deciding to make new investments - the so-called {sup b}oardroom perspective{sup .} The rationale for an individual company making an investment that will reduce energy consumption varies considerably and depends on a range of factors. This report explores those factors that influence companies to invest in energy savings and proposes a methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of a country's energy efficiency and greenhouse gas mitigation policies mix from this boardroom perspective. This paper is the product of collaboration between the IEA and the Institute of Industrial Productivity (IIP).

  5. Rational Risk-Benefit Decision-Making in the Setting of Military Mefloquine Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevin, Remington L

    2015-01-01

    Mefloquine is an antimalarial drug that has been commonly used in military settings since its development by the US military in the late 1980s. Owing to the drug's neuropsychiatric contraindications and its high rate of inducing neuropsychiatric symptoms, which are contraindications to the drug's continued use, the routine prescribing of mefloquine in military settings may be problematic. Due to these considerations and to recent concerns of chronic and potentially permanent psychiatric and neurological sequelae arising from drug toxicity, military prescribing of mefloquine has recently decreased. In settings where mefloquine remains available, policies governing prescribing should reflect risk-benefit decision-making informed by the drug's perceived benefits and by consideration both of the risks identified in the drug's labeling and of specific military risks associated with its use. In this review, these risks are identified and recommendations are made for the rational prescribing of the drug in light of current evidence.

  6. Permutation based decision making under fuzzy environment using Tabu search

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahdi Bashiri

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the techniques, which are used for Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM is the permutation. In the classical form of permutation, it is assumed that weights and decision matrix components are crisp. However, when group decision making is under consideration and decision makers could not agree on a crisp value for weights and decision matrix components, fuzzy numbers should be used. In this article, the fuzzy permutation technique for MCDM problems has been explained. The main deficiency of permutation is its big computational time, so a Tabu Search (TS based algorithm has been proposed to reduce the computational time. A numerical example has illustrated the proposed approach clearly. Then, some benchmark instances extracted from literature are solved by proposed TS. The analyses of the results show the proper performance of the proposed method.

  7. Validating evidence based decision making in health care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nüssler, Emil Karl; Eskildsen, Jacob Kjær; Håkonsson, Dorthe Døjbak

    Surgeons who perform prolapse surgeries face the dilemma of choosing to use mesh, with its assumed benefits, and the risks associated with mesh. In this paper, we examine whether decisions to use mesh is evidence based. Based on data of 30,398 patients from the Swedish National Quality Register o...... are highly influenced by the geographical placement of surgeons. Therfore, decisions to use mesh are boundedly rationality, rather than rational.......Surgeons who perform prolapse surgeries face the dilemma of choosing to use mesh, with its assumed benefits, and the risks associated with mesh. In this paper, we examine whether decisions to use mesh is evidence based. Based on data of 30,398 patients from the Swedish National Quality Register...... of Gynecological Surgery we examine factors related to decisions to use mesh. Our results indicate that decisions to use mesh are not evidence based, and cannot be explained neither by FDA safety communications, nor by medical conditions usually assumed to predict its usage. Instead, decisions to use mesh...

  8. Policy-Led Comparative Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Crops: Testing for Increased Risk Rather Than Profiling Phenotypes Leads to Predictable and Transparent Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan Raybould

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available We describe two contrasting methods of comparative environmental risk assessment for genetically modified (GM crops. Both are science-based, in the sense that they use science to help make decisions, but they differ in the relationship between science and policy. Policy-led comparative risk assessment begins by defining what would be regarded as unacceptable changes when the use a particular GM crop replaces an accepted use of another crop. Hypotheses that these changes will not occur are tested using existing or new data, and corroboration or falsification of the hypotheses is used to inform decision-making. Science-led comparative risk assessment, on the other hand, tends to test null hypotheses of no difference between a GM crop and a comparator. The variables that are compared may have little or no relevance to any previously stated policy objective and hence decision-making tends to be ad hoc in response to possibly spurious statistical significance. We argue that policy-led comparative risk assessment is the far more effective method. With this in mind, we caution that phenotypic profiling of GM crops, particularly with omics methods, is potentially detrimental to risk assessment.

  9. Exploring interactions between payment for hydrologic service policies, landowner decisions, and ecohydrology in a Mexican cloud forest watershed: Is there a disconnect between the policy and the resource?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asbjornsen, H.; Geissert, D.; Gomez-Tagle, A.; Holwerda, F.; Manson, R.; Perez-Maqueo, O.; Munoz-Villers, L.; Scullion, J.

    2013-05-01

    Payment for hydrologic service (PHS) programs are increasingly being used as a means to incentivize watershed protection by compensating upstream 'water producers' with payments made by downstream 'water consumers'. However, the effectiveness of PHS programs in achieving their target goals is often poorly understood. Here, we draw from insights obtained from socioeconomic and ecohydrological research in Veracruz, Mexico to explore interactions between PHS policies, landowner decisions, and hydrologic services. GIS analysis of land-cover changes during 2003-2009 combined with interviews of PHS participants indicated that despite lower deforestation rates on properties receiving PES payments, other factors were likely to have a greater influence on land use decisions than PHS payments per se, including opportunity costs and personal conservation ethic. The interviews also highlighted a general lack of trust and cooperation between the citizen participants and government administrators, which was reflected in the relatively low level of knowledge of the PHS programs' regulations and goals, the role of forests in protecting water resources, and a low level of co-financing by the private sector. An important premise of PHS programs is that protecting existing forest cover (and planting trees) will enhance water supply, especially in upland cloud forests that are due to their perceived role as water producers. Measurements of climate, steamflow, canopy fog interception, plant transpiration, soil water dynamics, and hydrologic flow paths were collected over a 3-year period to assess stand water balance and streamflow response under four different land covers: mature cloud forest, pasture, regenerating cloud forest, pine reforestation. Results suggested relatively minor additional inputs of fog to increasing streamflow in cloud forest watersheds, while conversion of forest to pasture did not markedly decrease dry season flows, but did increase annual flows due to lower

  10. Health: Policy or Law? A Population-Based Analysis of the Supreme Court's ACA Cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parmet, Wendy E

    2016-12-01

    This essay argues that it matters for the fate of health policies challenged in court whether courts consider health merely as a policy goal that must be subordinate to law, or as a legal norm warranting legal weight and consideration. Applying population-based legal analysis, this article demonstrates that courts have traditionally treated health as a legal norm. However, this norm appears to have weakened in recent years, a trend evident in the Supreme Court's first two decisions concerning the Affordable Care Act, NFIB v. Sebelius and Burwell v. Hobby Lobby However, in its more recent Affordable Care Act decision, King v. Burwell , the health legal norm is once again evident. Whether the Court will continue to treat health as a legal norm will prove critical to the deference and weight it grants health policies in the future. Copyright © 2016 by Duke University Press.

  11. Scalable approximate policies for Markov decision process models of hospital elective admissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, George; Lizotte, Dan; Hoey, Jesse

    2014-05-01

    To demonstrate the feasibility of using stochastic simulation methods for the solution of a large-scale Markov decision process model of on-line patient admissions scheduling. The problem of admissions scheduling is modeled as a Markov decision process in which the states represent numbers of patients using each of a number of resources. We investigate current state-of-the-art real time planning methods to compute solutions to this Markov decision process. Due to the complexity of the model, traditional model-based planners are limited in scalability since they require an explicit enumeration of the model dynamics. To overcome this challenge, we apply sample-based planners along with efficient simulation techniques that given an initial start state, generate an action on-demand while avoiding portions of the model that are irrelevant to the start state. We also propose a novel variant of a popular sample-based planner that is particularly well suited to the elective admissions problem. Results show that the stochastic simulation methods allow for the problem size to be scaled by a factor of almost 10 in the action space, and exponentially in the state space. We have demonstrated our approach on a problem with 81 actions, four specialities and four treatment patterns, and shown that we can generate solutions that are near-optimal in about 100s. Sample-based planners are a viable alternative to state-based planners for large Markov decision process models of elective admissions scheduling. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. How citizen advisory boards provide input into major waste policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogers, E.; Murakami, L.; Hanson, L.

    1995-01-01

    Volunteer citizen boards, such as Site Specific Advisory Boards, can be a very important key to success for the Department of Energy's (DOE's) Waste Management program. These boards can provide informed, independent recommendations reflecting the diversity of the community and its values. A successful volunteer process requires collaboration among regulators, DOE and other Boards; knowing how and when to interface with the broader public; understanding the diversity and representational issues of a citizens group; knowing the open-quotes ins and outsclose quotes of working with volunteers; education and training and most importantly, planning. Volunteers on a citizens board were created to tackle the big picture, policy decisions. The chair of the Rocky Flats Citizens Advisory Board will describe her Board's successes, including the challenges in reaching consensus agreements, as well as the need for integration with other boards and the sites' on-going public involvement programs to provide the input the department is seeking. Finally, one of the greatest challenges for the boards is interfacing with the greater public-at-large, seeing how the CAB has overcome this challenge and integrating broader public input into its decisions

  13. How citizen advisory boards provide input into major waste policy decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rogers, E.; Murakami, L.; Hanson, L. [Rocky Flats Citizen Advisory Board, Westminster, CO (United States)

    1995-12-31

    Volunteer citizen boards, such as Site Specific Advisory Boards, can be a very important key to success for the Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) Waste Management program. These boards can provide informed, independent recommendations reflecting the diversity of the community and its values. A successful volunteer process requires collaboration among regulators, DOE and other Boards; knowing how and when to interface with the broader public; understanding the diversity and representational issues of a citizens group; knowing the {open_quotes}ins and outs{close_quotes} of working with volunteers; education and training and most importantly, planning. Volunteers on a citizens board were created to tackle the big picture, policy decisions. The chair of the Rocky Flats Citizens Advisory Board will describe her Board`s successes, including the challenges in reaching consensus agreements, as well as the need for integration with other boards and the sites` on-going public involvement programs to provide the input the department is seeking. Finally, one of the greatest challenges for the boards is interfacing with the greater public-at-large, seeing how the CAB has overcome this challenge and integrating broader public input into its decisions.

  14. COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY FROM HEALTH CHECK DECISIONS TO THE POST-2013 REFORM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niculescu Oana Marilena

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposed for being presented belongs to the field research International Affairs and European Integration. The paper entitled Common Agricultural Policy from Health Check decisions to the post-2013 reform aims to analyze the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP from the Health Check adoption in November 2008 to a new reform post-2013. The objectives of the paper are the presentation of the Health Check with its advantages and disadvantages as well as the analysis of the opportunity of a new European policy and its reforming having in view that the analysis of Health Check condition was considered a compromise. The paper is related to the internal and international research consisting in several books, studies, documents that analyze the particularities of the most debated, controversial and reformed EU policy. A personal study is represented by the first report within the PhD paper called The reform of CAP and its implications for Romanias agriculture(coordinator prof. Gheorghe Hurduzeu PhD, Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, Faculty of International Business, research studies in the period 2009-2012. The research methodology used consists in collecting and analysis data from national and international publications, their validation, followed by a dissemination of the results in order to express a personal opinion regarding CAP and its reform. The results of the research consist in proving the opportunity of a new reform due to the fact that Health Check belongs already to the past. The paper belongs to the field research mentioned, in the attempt to prove the opportunity of building a new EU agricultural policy. The challenges CAP is facing are: food safety, environmental and climate changes, territorial balance as well as new challenges-improving sustainable management of natural resources, maintaining competitiveness in the context of globalization growth, strengthening EU cohesion in rural areas, increasing the support of CAP for

  15. Does Age Matter in HR Decision Making? Four Types of Age Policies in Finnish Work Organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Pärnänen

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The extension of work careers is one of the key targets of social policy in the EU as well as in Finnish national policy-making. But how is this objective of lengthened work life received at the workplace level? This study examines the aim of extending working careers at an organizational level. The data comprise interviews with human resources managers, shop stewards, and employees reaching the end of their working life, conducted in ten Finnish work organizations. Four different age policy lines can be distinguished from the data. First, the age policy practices of manufacturing enterprises are very much alike in that a clear turn has occurred from favoring the unemployment pension path in the case of dismissals to extending working careers. Second, the age policy of public sector organizations encourages investment in extending the working careers of older employees, though young people are clearly preferred in recruitment. The third line can be found in private service sector enterprises that utilize age segmentation based on the age of their customers – young waiters for young customers, for example – while the fourth can be described by the words ‘situation-specific’ and ‘passive’. No input is made into extending working careers and the unemployment route is used as the means of dismissal where needed. The study reveals that the organizations’ age policies are strategic in nature: longer working careers are supported and older people are hired only if it is strategically sound. It can be said that workplaces currently determine the boundaries of who and at what age people are fit for work and of ‘working age’.

  16. External factors affecting decision-making and use of evidence in an Australian public health policy environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zardo, Pauline; Collie, Alex; Livingstone, Charles

    2014-05-01

    This study examined external factors affecting policy and program decision-making in a specific public health policy context: injury prevention and rehabilitation compensation in the Australian state of Victoria. The aim was twofold: identify external factors that affect policy and program decision-making in this specific context; use this evidence to inform targeting of interventions aimed at increasing research use in this context. Qualitative interviews were undertaken from June 2011 to January 2012 with 33 employees from two state government agencies. Key factors identified were stakeholder feedback and action, government and ministerial input, legal feedback and action, injured persons and the media. The identified external factors were able to significantly influence policy and program decision-making processes: acting as both barriers and facilitators, depending on the particular issue at hand. The factors with the most influence were the Minister and government, lawyers, and agency stakeholders, particularly health providers, trade unions and employer groups. This research revealed that interventions aimed at increasing use of research in this context must target and harness the influence of these groups. This research provides critical insights for researchers seeking to design interventions to increase use of research in policy environments and influence decision-making in Victorian injury prevention and rehabilitation compensation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Racism, gun ownership and gun control: biased attitudes in US whites may influence policy decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Kerry; Forrest, Walter; Lynott, Dermot; Daly, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Racism is related to policies preferences and behaviors that adversely affect blacks and appear related to a fear of blacks (e.g., increased policing, death penalty). This study examined whether racism is also related to gun ownership and opposition to gun controls in US whites. The most recent data from the American National Election Study, a large representative US sample, was used to test relationships between racism, gun ownership, and opposition to gun control in US whites. Explanatory variables known to be related to gun ownership and gun control opposition (i.e., age, gender, education, income, conservatism, anti-government sentiment, southern vs. other states, political identification) were entered in logistic regression models, along with measures of racism, and the stereotype of blacks as violent. Outcome variables included; having a gun in the home, opposition to bans on handguns in the home, support for permits to carry concealed handguns. After accounting for all explanatory variables, logistic regressions found that for each 1 point increase in symbolic racism there was a 50% increase in the odds of having a gun at home. After also accounting for having a gun in the home, there was still a 28% increase in support for permits to carry concealed handguns, for each one point increase in symbolic racism. The relationship between symbolic racism and opposition to banning handguns in the home (OR1.27 CI 1.03,1.58) was reduced to non-significant after accounting for having a gun in the home (OR1.17 CI.94,1.46), which likely represents self-interest in retaining property (guns). Symbolic racism was related to having a gun in the home and opposition to gun control policies in US whites. The findings help explain US whites' paradoxical attitudes towards gun ownership and gun control. Such attitudes may adversely influence US gun control policy debates and decisions.

  18. Racism, gun ownership and gun control: biased attitudes in US whites may influence policy decisions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry O'Brien

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Racism is related to policies preferences and behaviors that adversely affect blacks and appear related to a fear of blacks (e.g., increased policing, death penalty. This study examined whether racism is also related to gun ownership and opposition to gun controls in US whites. METHOD: The most recent data from the American National Election Study, a large representative US sample, was used to test relationships between racism, gun ownership, and opposition to gun control in US whites. Explanatory variables known to be related to gun ownership and gun control opposition (i.e., age, gender, education, income, conservatism, anti-government sentiment, southern vs. other states, political identification were entered in logistic regression models, along with measures of racism, and the stereotype of blacks as violent. Outcome variables included; having a gun in the home, opposition to bans on handguns in the home, support for permits to carry concealed handguns. RESULTS: After accounting for all explanatory variables, logistic regressions found that for each 1 point increase in symbolic racism there was a 50% increase in the odds of having a gun at home. After also accounting for having a gun in the home, there was still a 28% increase in support for permits to carry concealed handguns, for each one point increase in symbolic racism. The relationship between symbolic racism and opposition to banning handguns in the home (OR1.27 CI 1.03,1.58 was reduced to non-significant after accounting for having a gun in the home (OR1.17 CI.94,1.46, which likely represents self-interest in retaining property (guns. CONCLUSIONS: Symbolic racism was related to having a gun in the home and opposition to gun control policies in US whites. The findings help explain US whites' paradoxical attitudes towards gun ownership and gun control. Such attitudes may adversely influence US gun control policy debates and decisions.

  19. Racism, Gun Ownership and Gun Control: Biased Attitudes in US Whites May Influence Policy Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    O’Brien, Kerry; Forrest, Walter; Lynott, Dermot; Daly, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Objective Racism is related to policies preferences and behaviors that adversely affect blacks and appear related to a fear of blacks (e.g., increased policing, death penalty). This study examined whether racism is also related to gun ownership and opposition to gun controls in US whites. Method The most recent data from the American National Election Study, a large representative US sample, was used to test relationships between racism, gun ownership, and opposition to gun control in US whites. Explanatory variables known to be related to gun ownership and gun control opposition (i.e., age, gender, education, income, conservatism, anti-government sentiment, southern vs. other states, political identification) were entered in logistic regression models, along with measures of racism, and the stereotype of blacks as violent. Outcome variables included; having a gun in the home, opposition to bans on handguns in the home, support for permits to carry concealed handguns. Results After accounting for all explanatory variables, logistic regressions found that for each 1 point increase in symbolic racism there was a 50% increase in the odds of having a gun at home. After also accounting for having a gun in the home, there was still a 28% increase in support for permits to carry concealed handguns, for each one point increase in symbolic racism. The relationship between symbolic racism and opposition to banning handguns in the home (OR1.27 CI 1.03,1.58) was reduced to non-significant after accounting for having a gun in the home (OR1.17 CI.94,1.46), which likely represents self-interest in retaining property (guns). Conclusions Symbolic racism was related to having a gun in the home and opposition to gun control policies in US whites. The findings help explain US whites’ paradoxical attitudes towards gun ownership and gun control. Such attitudes may adversely influence US gun control policy debates and decisions. PMID:24204867

  20. TIME Impact - a new user-friendly tuberculosis (TB) model to inform TB policy decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houben, R M G J; Lalli, M; Sumner, T; Hamilton, M; Pedrazzoli, D; Bonsu, F; Hippner, P; Pillay, Y; Kimerling, M; Ahmedov, S; Pretorius, C; White, R G

    2016-03-24

    Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from infectious disease worldwide, predominantly affecting low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where resources are limited. As such, countries need to be able to choose the most efficient interventions for their respective setting. Mathematical models can be valuable tools to inform rational policy decisions and improve resource allocation, but are often unavailable or inaccessible for LMICs, particularly in TB. We developed TIME Impact, a user-friendly TB model that enables local capacity building and strengthens country-specific policy discussions to inform support funding applications at the (sub-)national level (e.g. Ministry of Finance) or to international donors (e.g. the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria).TIME Impact is an epidemiological transmission model nested in TIME, a set of TB modelling tools available for free download within the widely-used Spectrum software. The TIME Impact model reflects key aspects of the natural history of TB, with additional structure for HIV/ART, drug resistance, treatment history and age. TIME Impact enables national TB programmes (NTPs) and other TB policymakers to better understand their own TB epidemic, plan their response, apply for funding and evaluate the implementation of the response.The explicit aim of TIME Impact's user-friendly interface is to enable training of local and international TB experts towards independent use. During application of TIME Impact, close involvement of the NTPs and other local partners also builds critical understanding of the modelling methods, assumptions and limitations inherent to modelling. This is essential to generate broad country-level ownership of the modelling data inputs and results. In turn, it stimulates discussions and a review of the current evidence and assumptions, strengthening the decision-making process in general.TIME Impact has been effectively applied in a variety of settings. In South Africa, it

  1. Applying health economics for policy decision making: do devices differ from drugs?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorenson, Corinna; Tarricone, Rosanna; Siebert, Markus; Drummond, Michael

    2011-05-01

    Medical devices pose unique challenges for economic evaluation and associated decision-making processes that differ from pharmaceuticals. We highlight and discuss these challenges in the context of cardiac device therapy, based on a systematic review of relevant economic evaluations. Key challenges include practical difficulties in conducting randomized clinical trials, allowing for a 'learning curve' and user characteristics, accounting for the wider organizational impacts of introducing new devices, and allowing for variations in product characteristics and prices over time.

  2. Decision support based on process mining

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Burstein, F.; Holsapple, C.W.

    2008-01-01

    Process mining techniques allow for the analysis of business processes based on event logs. For example, the audit trails of a workflow management system, the transaction logs of an enterprise resource planning system, and the electronic patient records in a hospital can be used to discover models

  3. Bases for Decisions on Final Disposal in Finland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avolahti, Jaana

    2001-01-01

    The disposal of the spent nuclear fuel is approaching one of the significant milestones in Finland. Social debate on the nuclear waste management is going on aiming at a decision of principle on future directions of spent fuel management. The research so far has required no political decision. This current situation is preceded by preparations for two decades carried out by Posiva Oy who took over the programme managed earlier by Teollisuuden Voinia Oy, one of the country's nuclear power companies. The preparations comprise site investigations, technical concept development, research into long-term safety and an environmental impact assessment. The work carried out by Posiva is under regular assessment by the authorities. Research programmes are drawn up every year and reports are published for open review. The preparations in the next years to come aim at starting the construction of the repository in 2010 and the disposal operations are planned to be started in 2020. Various stakeholders in Finland are involved in the decision-making process on the disposal of spent nuclear fuel. The process started when Posiva as an implementer applied for the Government's Decision in Principle in 1999. The Government made a favourable decision in December 2000 on the basis of different considerations. Among the important bases were the preceding favourable decisions made by the proposed siting municipality and the regulatory authority for radiation safety. At the moment the members of the Parliament are discussing the principles of the disposal in order to be able to vote on the Government's decision in the springtime. This paper discusses similarities and differences between the decisions made so far as regards the deep repository. The objective is to present the significance of the decisions from the point of view of an implementer of the repository. The Decision in Principle does not give any consent to start constructing the repository. Licenses for construction and

  4. Building a Public Health Response to the Flint Water Crisis: Implications for Policy and Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furr-Holden, D.

    2017-12-01

    Flint, MI has experienced a recent, man-made public health crisis. The Flint Water Crisis, caused by a switch in the municipal water supply and subsequent violation of engineering and regulatory standards to ensure water quality lead to a large portion of the city being exposed to excess metals (including lead), bacteria and other water-borne pathogens. The data used to initially rebut the existence of the crisis were ecologically flawed as they included large numbers of people who were not on the Flint water supply. Policy-makers, municipal officials, the medical community, and public health professionals were at odds over the existence of a problem and the lack of data only fueled the debate. Pediatricians, lead by Dr. Mona Hannah-Attisha, began testing children in the Hurley Children's Medical Center for blood-lead levels and observed a 2-fold increase in elevated blood lead levels in Flint children compared to children in the area not on the Flint municipal water supply, where no increases in elevated lead were observed. Subsequent geospatial analyses revealed spatial clustering of cases based on where children live, go to school and play. These data represented the first step in data driven decision making leading to the subsequent switch of the municipal water supply and launch of subsequent advocacy efforts to remediate the effect of the Water Crisis. Since that time, a multi-disciplinary team of scientists including engineers, bench scientists, physicians and public health researchers have mounted evidence to promote complete replacement of the city's aging water infrastructure, developed a data registry to track cases and coordinate care and services for affected residents, and implemented a community engagement model that puts residents and community stakeholders at the heart of the planning and implementation efforts. The presentation will include data used at various stages to mount a public health response to the Flint Water Crisis and establish the

  5. Accrual based accounting implementation: An approach for modelling major decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ratno Agriyanto

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Over the last three decades the main issues of implementation of accrual based accounting government institutions in Indonesia. Implementation of accrual based accounting in government institutions amid debate about the usefulness of accounting information for decision-making. Empirical study shows that the accrual based of accounting information on a government institution is not used for decision making. The research objective was to determine the impact of the implementation of the accrual based accounting to the accrual basis of accounting information use for decision-making basis. We used the survey questionnaires. The data were processed by SEM using statistical software WarpPLS. The results showed that the implementation of the accrual based accounting in City Government Semarang has significantly positively associated with decision-making. Another important finding is the City Government officials of Semarang have personality, low tolerance of ambiguity is a negative effect on the relationship between the implementation of the accrual based accounting for decision making

  6. An Agent-Based Model of Farmer Decision Making in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selby, Philip; Medellin-Azuara, Josue; Harou, Julien; Klassert, Christian; Yoon, Jim

    2016-04-01

    We describe an agent based hydro-economic model of groundwater irrigated agriculture in the Jordan Highlands. The model employs a Multi-Agent-Simulation (MAS) framework and is designed to evaluate direct and indirect outcomes of climate change scenarios and policy interventions on farmer decision making, including annual land use, groundwater use for irrigation, and water sales to a water tanker market. Land use and water use decisions are simulated for groups of farms grouped by location and their behavioural and economic similarities. Decreasing groundwater levels, and the associated increase in pumping costs, are important drivers for change within Jordan'S agricultural sector. We describe how this is considered by coupling of agricultural and groundwater models. The agricultural production model employs Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP), a method for calibrating agricultural production functions to observed planted areas. PMP has successfully been used with disaggregate models for policy analysis. We adapt the PMP approach to allow explicit evaluation of the impact of pumping costs, groundwater purchase fees and a water tanker market. The work demonstrates the applicability of agent-based agricultural decision making assessment in the Jordan Highlands and its integration with agricultural model calibration methods. The proposed approach is designed and implemented with software such that it could be used to evaluate a variety of physical and human influences on decision making in agricultural water management.

  7. Informing Evidence Based Decisions: Usage Statistics for Online Journal Databases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexei Botchkarev

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective – The primary objective was to examine online journal database usage statistics for a provincial ministry of health in the context of evidence based decision-making. In addition, the study highlights implementation of the Journal Access Centre (JAC that is housed and powered by the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care (MOHLTC to inform health systems policy-making. Methods – This was a prospective case study using descriptive analysis of the JAC usage statistics of journal articles from January 2009 to September 2013. Results – JAC enables ministry employees to access approximately 12,000 journals with full-text articles. JAC usage statistics for the 2011-2012 calendar years demonstrate a steady level of activity in terms of searches, with monthly averages of 5,129. In 2009-2013, a total of 4,759 journal titles were accessed including 1,675 journals with full-text. Usage statistics demonstrate that the actual consumption was over 12,790 full-text downloaded articles or approximately 2,700 articles annually. Conclusion – JAC’s steady level of activities, revealed by the study, reflects continuous demand for JAC services and products. It testifies that access to online journal databases has become part of routine government knowledge management processes. MOHLTC’s broad area of responsibilities with dynamically changing priorities translates into the diverse information needs of its employees and a large set of required journals. Usage statistics indicate that MOHLTC information needs cannot be mapped to a reasonably compact set of “core” journals with a subsequent subscription to those.

  8. Tactical decision games - developing scenario-based training for decision-making in distributed teams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lauche, K.; Crichton, M.; Bayerl, P.S.

    2009-01-01

    Team training should reflect the increasing complexity of decision-making environments. Guidelines for scenario-based training were adopted for a distributed setting and tested in a pilot training session with a distributed team in the offshore oil industry. Participants valued the scenario as

  9. Improvements to Air Force Strategic Basing Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    24th Air Force need to have locations in Silicon 36 Valley or Northern Virginia to draw on the existing cyber industrial bases. Similarly, an issue...cross valuation . Cross valuation results in a simpler model than if GBM were allowed to run until it achieved a perfect fit. In ten-fold cross... valuation , the dataset is randomly split into ten mutually exclusive subsets. The model is fit on nine-tenths of the data, and that model is used to 62

  10. Decision Making under Uncertainty: A Neural Model based on Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajesh P N Rao

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental problem faced by animals is learning to select actions based on noisy sensory information and incomplete knowledge of the world. It has been suggested that the brain engages in Bayesian inference during perception but how such probabilistic representations are used to select actions has remained unclear. Here we propose a neural model of action selection and decision making based on the theory of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs. Actions are selected based not on a single optimal estimate of state but on the posterior distribution over states (the belief state. We show how such a model provides a unified framework for explaining experimental results in decision making that involve both information gathering and overt actions. The model utilizes temporal difference (TD learning for maximizing expected reward. The resulting neural architecture posits an active role for the neocortex in belief computation while ascribing a role to the basal ganglia in belief representation, value computation, and action selection. When applied to the random dots motion discrimination task, model neurons representing belief exhibit responses similar to those of LIP neurons in primate neocortex. The appropriate threshold for switching from information gathering to overt actions emerges naturally during reward maximization. Additionally, the time course of reward prediction error in the model shares similarities with dopaminergic responses in the basal ganglia during the random dots task. For tasks with a deadline, the model learns a decision making strategy that changes with elapsed time, predicting a collapsing decision threshold consistent with some experimental studies. The model provides a new framework for understanding neural decision making and suggests an important role for interactions between the neocortex and the basal ganglia in learning the mapping between probabilistic sensory representations and actions that maximize

  11. Illicit Drugs, Policing and the Evidence-Based Policy Paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritter, Alison; Lancaster, Kari

    2013-01-01

    The mantra of evidence-based policy (EBP) suggests that endeavours to implement evidence-based policing will produce better outcomes. However there is dissonance between the rhetoric of EBP and the actuality of policing policy. This disjuncture is critically analysed using the case study of illicit drugs policing. The dissonance may be ameliorated…

  12. EEG feature selection method based on decision tree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Lijuan; Ge, Hui; Ma, Wei; Miao, Jun

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to solve automated feature selection problem in brain computer interface (BCI). In order to automate feature selection process, we proposed a novel EEG feature selection method based on decision tree (DT). During the electroencephalogram (EEG) signal processing, a feature extraction method based on principle component analysis (PCA) was used, and the selection process based on decision tree was performed by searching the feature space and automatically selecting optimal features. Considering that EEG signals are a series of non-linear signals, a generalized linear classifier named support vector machine (SVM) was chosen. In order to test the validity of the proposed method, we applied the EEG feature selection method based on decision tree to BCI Competition II datasets Ia, and the experiment showed encouraging results.

  13. Spike-based decision learning of Nash equilibria in two-player games.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes Friedrich

    Full Text Available Humans and animals face decision tasks in an uncertain multi-agent environment where an agent's strategy may change in time due to the co-adaptation of others strategies. The neuronal substrate and the computational algorithms underlying such adaptive decision making, however, is largely unknown. We propose a population coding model of spiking neurons with a policy gradient procedure that successfully acquires optimal strategies for classical game-theoretical tasks. The suggested population reinforcement learning reproduces data from human behavioral experiments for the blackjack and the inspector game. It performs optimally according to a pure (deterministic and mixed (stochastic Nash equilibrium, respectively. In contrast, temporal-difference(TD-learning, covariance-learning, and basic reinforcement learning fail to perform optimally for the stochastic strategy. Spike-based population reinforcement learning, shown to follow the stochastic reward gradient, is therefore a viable candidate to explain automated decision learning of a Nash equilibrium in two-player games.

  14. Evidence-based medicine - an appropriate tool for evidence-based health policy? A case study from Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malterud, Kirsti; Bjelland, Anne Karen; Elvbakken, Kari Tove

    2016-03-05

    Evidence-based policy (EBP), a concept modelled on the principles of evidence-based medicine (EBM), is widely used in different areas of policymaking. Systematic reviews (SRs) with meta-analyses gradually became the methods of choice for synthesizing research evidence about interventions and judgements about quality of evidence and strength of recommendations. Critics have argued that the relation between research evidence and service policies is weak, and that the notion of EBP rests on a misunderstanding of policy processes. Having explored EBM standards and knowledge requirements for health policy decision-making, we present an empirical point of departure for discussing the relationship between EBM and EBP. In a case study exploring the Norwegian Knowledge Centre for the Health Services (NOKC), an independent government unit, we first searched for information about the background and development of the NOKC to establish a research context. We then identified, selected and organized official NOKC publications as an empirical sample of typical top-of-the-line knowledge delivery adhering to EBM standards. Finally, we explored conclusions in this type of publication, specifically addressing their potential as policy decision tools. From a total sample of 151 SRs published by the NOKC in the period 2004-2013, a purposive subsample from 2012 (14 publications) advised major caution about their conclusions because of the quality or relevance of the underlying documentation. Although the case study did not include a systematic investigation of uptake and policy consequences, SRs were found to be inappropriate as universal tools for health policy decision-making. The case study demonstrates that EBM is not necessarily suited to knowledge provision for every kind of policy decision-making. Our analysis raises the question of whether the evidence-based movement, represented here by an independent government organization, undertakes too broad a range of commissions using

  15. Shared Decision Making in ICUs: An American College of Critical Care Medicine and American Thoracic Society Policy Statement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kon, Alexander A; Davidson, Judy E; Morrison, Wynne; Danis, Marion; White, Douglas B

    2016-01-01

    Shared decision making is endorsed by critical care organizations; however, there remains confusion about what shared decision making is, when it should be used, and approaches to promote partnerships in treatment decisions. The purpose of this statement is to define shared decision making, recommend when shared decision making should be used, identify the range of ethically acceptable decision-making models, and present important communication skills. The American College of Critical Care Medicine and American Thoracic Society Ethics Committees reviewed empirical research and normative analyses published in peer-reviewed journals to generate recommendations. Recommendations approved by consensus of the full Ethics Committees of American College of Critical Care Medicine and American Thoracic Society were included in the statement. Six recommendations were endorsed: 1) DEFINITION: Shared decision making is a collaborative process that allows patients, or their surrogates, and clinicians to make healthcare decisions together, taking into account the best scientific evidence available, as well as the patient's values, goals, and preferences. 2) Clinicians should engage in a shared decision making process to define overall goals of care (including decisions regarding limiting or withdrawing life-prolonging interventions) and when making major treatment decisions that may be affected by personal values, goals, and preferences. 3) Clinicians should use as their "default" approach a shared decision making process that includes three main elements: information exchange, deliberation, and making a treatment decision. 4) A wide range of decision-making approaches are ethically supportable, including patient- or surrogate-directed and clinician-directed models. Clinicians should tailor the decision-making process based on the preferences of the patient or surrogate. 5) Clinicians should be trained in communication skills. 6) Research is needed to evaluate decision

  16. Motivational states influence effort-based decision making in rats: the role of dopamine in the nucleus accumbens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mai, Bettina; Sommer, Susanne; Hauber, Wolfgang

    2012-03-01

    Decision-making policies are subject to modulation by changing motivational states. However, so far, little is known about the neurochemical mechanisms that bridge motivational states with decision making. Here we examined whether dopamine (DA) in the nucleus accumbens core (AcbC) modulates the effects of motivational states on effort-based decision making. Using a cost-benefit T-maze task in rats, we examined the effects of AcbC DA depletions on effort-based decision making, in particular on the sensitivity of effort-based decision making to a shift from a hungry to a sated state. The results demonstrated that, relative to sham controls, rats with AcbC DA depletion in a hungry as well as in a sated state had a reduced preference for effortful but large-reward action. This finding provides further support for the notion that AcbC DA regulates how much effort to invest for rewards. Importantly, our results further revealed that effort-based decision making in lesioned rats, as in sham controls, was still sensitive to a shift from a hungry to a sated state; that is, their preferences for effortful large-reward actions became lower after a shift from a restricted to a free-feeding regimen. These finding indicate that AcbC DA is not necessarily involved in mediating the effects of a shift in motivational state on decision-making policies.

  17. Policy and Validity Prospects for Performance-Based Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Eva L.; And Others

    1994-01-01

    This article describes performance-based assessment as expounded by its proponents, comments on these conceptions, reviews evidence regarding the technical quality of performance-based assessment, and considers its validity under various policy options. (JDD)

  18. Embedding health policy and systems research into decision-making processes in low- and middle-income countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koon, Adam D; Rao, Krishna D; Tran, Nhan T; Ghaffar, Abdul

    2013-08-08

    Attention is increasingly directed to bridging the gap between the production of knowledge and its use for health decision-making in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). An important and underdeveloped area of health policy and systems research (HPSR) is the organization of this process. Drawing from an interdisciplinary conception of embeddedness, a literature review was conducted to identify examples of embedded HPSR used to inform decision-making in LMICs. The results of the literature review were organized according to the World Health Organization's Building Blocks Framework. Next, a conceptual model was created to illustrate the arrangement of organizations that produce embedded HPSR and the characteristics that facilitate its uptake into the arena of decision-making. We found that multiple forces converge to create context-specific pathways through which evidence enters into decision-making. Depending on the decision under consideration, the literature indicates that decision-makers may call upon an intricate combination of actors for sourcing HPSR. While proximity to decision-making does have advantages, it is not the position of the organization within the network, but rather the qualities the organization possesses, that enable it to be embedded. Our findings suggest that four qualities influence embeddedness: reputation, capacity, quality of connections to decision-makers, and quantity of connections to decision-makers and others. In addition to this, the policy environment (e.g. the presence of legislation governing the use of HPSR, presence of strong civil society, etc.) strongly influences uptake. Through this conceptual model, we can understand which conditions are likely to enhance uptake of HPSR in LMIC health systems. This raises several important considerations for decision-makers and researchers about the arrangement and interaction of evidence-generating organizations in health systems.

  19. Episodic memories predict adaptive value-based decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murty, Vishnu; FeldmanHall, Oriel; Hunter, Lindsay E.; Phelps, Elizabeth A; Davachi, Lila

    2016-01-01

    Prior research illustrates that memory can guide value-based decision-making. For example, previous work has implicated both working memory and procedural memory (i.e., reinforcement learning) in guiding choice. However, other types of memories, such as episodic memory, may also influence decision-making. Here we test the role for episodic memory—specifically item versus associative memory—in supporting value-based choice. Participants completed a task where they first learned the value associated with trial unique lotteries. After a short delay, they completed a decision-making task where they could choose to re-engage with previously encountered lotteries, or new never before seen lotteries. Finally, participants completed a surprise memory test for the lotteries and their associated values. Results indicate that participants chose to re-engage more often with lotteries that resulted in high versus low rewards. Critically, participants not only formed detailed, associative memories for the reward values coupled with individual lotteries, but also exhibited adaptive decision-making only when they had intact associative memory. We further found that the relationship between adaptive choice and associative memory generalized to more complex, ecologically valid choice behavior, such as social decision-making. However, individuals more strongly encode experiences of social violations—such as being treated unfairly, suggesting a bias for how individuals form associative memories within social contexts. Together, these findings provide an important integration of episodic memory and decision-making literatures to better understand key mechanisms supporting adaptive behavior. PMID:26999046

  20. Integrating Design Decision Management with Model-based Software Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    Design decisions are continuously made during the development of software systems and are important artifacts for design documentation. Dedicated decision management systems are often used to capture such design knowledge. Most such systems are, however, separated from the design artifacts...... of the system. In model-based software development, where design models are used to develop a software system, outcomes of many design decisions have big impact on design models. The realization of design decisions is often manual and tedious work on design models. Moreover, keeping design models consistent......, or by ignoring the causes. This substitutes manual reviews to some extent. The concepts, implemented in a tool, have been validated with design patterns, refactorings, and domain level tests that comprise a replay of a real project. This proves the applicability of the solution to realistic examples...

  1. Modular Architecture for Integrated Model-Based Decision Support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaebel, Jan; Schreiber, Erik; Oeser, Alexander; Oeltze-Jafra, Steffen

    2018-01-01

    Model-based decision support systems promise to be a valuable addition to oncological treatments and the implementation of personalized therapies. For the integration and sharing of decision models, the involved systems must be able to communicate with each other. In this paper, we propose a modularized architecture of dedicated systems for the integration of probabilistic decision models into existing hospital environments. These systems interconnect via web services and provide model sharing and processing capabilities for clinical information systems. Along the lines of IHE integration profiles from other disciplines and the meaningful reuse of routinely recorded patient data, our approach aims for the seamless integration of decision models into hospital infrastructure and the physicians' daily work.

  2. Dark Matter: The "Gravitational Pull" of Maternalist Discourses on Politicians' Decision Making for Early Childhood Policy in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bown, Kathryn; Sumsion, Jennifer; Press, Frances

    2011-01-01

    The article reports on a study investigating influences on Australian politicians' decision making for early childhood education and care (ECEC) policy. The astronomical concept of dark matter is utilised as a metaphor for considering normalising, and therefore frequently difficult to detect and disrupt, influences implicated in politicians'…

  3. Burden's on U! the Impact of the "Fisher v. University of Texas at Austin" Decision on K-16 Admissions Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, David H. K.

    2014-01-01

    Using race as a factor in admissions policies was contested in "Fisher v. University of Texas at Austin." Although the U.S. Supreme Court firmly held in "Grutter v. Bollinger" that race can be considered among many factors in admitting students, the recent decision in "Fisher" has posed many questions and challenges…

  4. Children's Participation in Decision-Making in the Philippines: Understanding the Attitudes of Policy-Makers and Service Providers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bessell, Sharon

    2009-01-01

    This article explores the ideas about children's participation in decision-making held by government officials and non-government representatives engaged in promoting children's participation in the Philippines. It suggests that the ideas that policy-makers and service deliverers hold about children's participation are heterogeneous, diverse and…

  5. How Instructional Coaches Support Data-Driven Decision Making: Policy Implementation and Effects in Florida Middle Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Julie A.; McCombs, Jennifer Sloan; Martorell, Francisco

    2010-01-01

    This article examines the convergence of two popular school improvement policies: instructional coaching and data-driven decision making (DDDM). Drawing on a mixed methods study of a statewide reading coach program in Florida middle schools, the article examines how coaches support DDDM and how this support relates to student and teacher outcomes.…

  6. Base-stock policies with reservations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Foreest, Nicky D.; Teunter, Ruud H.; Syntetos, Aris A.

    2018-01-01

    All intensively studied and widely applied inventory control policies satisfy demand in accordance with the First-Come-First-Served (FCFS) rule, whether this demand is in backorder or not. Interestingly, this rule is sub-optimal when the fill-rate is constrained or when the backorder cost structure

  7. Effort-Based Decision-Making in Schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culbreth, Adam J; Moran, Erin K; Barch, Deanna M

    2018-08-01

    Motivational impairment has long been associated with schizophrenia but the underlying mechanisms are not clearly understood. Recently, a small but growing literature has suggested that aberrant effort-based decision-making may be a potential contributory mechanism for motivational impairments in psychosis. Specifically, multiple reports have consistently demonstrated that individuals with schizophrenia are less willing than healthy controls to expend effort to obtain rewards. Further, this effort-based decision-making deficit has been shown to correlate with severity of negative symptoms and level of functioning, in many but not all studies. In the current review, we summarize this literature and discuss several factors that may underlie aberrant effort-based decision-making in schizophrenia.

  8. Policy-Based mobility Management for Heterogeneous Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mihovska, Albena D.

    2007-01-01

    Next generation communications will be composed of flexible, scalable and context-aware, secure and resilient architectures and technologies that allow full mobility of the user and enable dynamic management policies that ensure end-to-end secure transmission of data and services across heterogen......Next generation communications will be composed of flexible, scalable and context-aware, secure and resilient architectures and technologies that allow full mobility of the user and enable dynamic management policies that ensure end-to-end secure transmission of data and services across...... access technology (RAT) association, user and flow context transfer, handover decision, and deployment priority. Index Terms— distributed RRM, centralized...

  9. New dawn for electricity? EU policy and the changing decision space for electricity production in Sweden; a CANES Working Paper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nilsson, Maans

    2009-11-15

    The European Union has taken an increasing interest in governing the energy sector in its Member States. However, EU still competes with national-level policies as well as sectoral organizational fields with sticky institutions, norms and knowledge. Therefore, despite its high ambitions in the energy field, for instance in the promotion of renewables and market reform, it is not clear whether the EU really exerts a strong influence, and if there is such an influence, the processes of influence and 'filtering' through to national political and industrial structures are not well understood. This paper examines a recent strategic change amongst national actors in Sweden in the energy sector; the decision space for investment in electricity. It examines the influence of European policy change, national political and policy change and organizational field-level developments on this decision space. It finds that European policy has rarely been very coercive, partly because Sweden has been a forerunner both on electricity market reform and renewable energy promotion, but that its influence is notable both directly through its emissions trading directive and more indirectly through signalling its intentions and long-term goals. Still, it appears that domestic developments, both cognitive and normative structures in the organizational field, and national policy change remain more instrumental determinants of the changed decision space. (Author)

  10. Integrated agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis of BMPs to support decision making and policy design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maroy, E.; Rousseau, A. N.; Hallema, D. W.

    2012-12-01

    With recent efforts and increasing control over point source pollution of freshwater, agricultural non-point pollution sources have become responsible for most of sediment and nutrient loads in North American water systems. Environmental and agricultural agencies have recognised the need for reducing eutrophication and have developed various policies to compel or encourage producers to best management practices (BMPs). Addressing diffuse pollution is challenging considering the complex and cumulative nature of transport processes, high variability in space and time, and prohibitive costs of distributed water quality monitoring. Many policy options exist to push producers to adopt environmentally desirable behaviour while keeping their activity viable, and ensure equitable costs to consumers and tax payers. On the one hand, economic instruments (subsidies, taxes, water quality markets) are designed to maximize cost-effectiveness, so that farmers optimize their production for maximum profit while implementing BMPs. On the other hand, emission standards or regulation of inputs are often easier and less costly to implement. To study economic and environmental impacts of such policies, a distributed modelling approach is needed to deal with the complexity of the system and the large environmental and socio-economic data requirements. Our objective is to integrate agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis to support decision and policy making processes of BMP implementation. The integrated modelling system GIBSI was developed in an earlier study within the Canadian WEBs project (Watershed Evaluation of BMPs) to evaluate the influence of BMPs on water quality. The case study involved 30 and 15 year records of discharge and water quality measurements respectively, in the Beaurivage River watershed (Quebec, Canada). GIBSI provided a risk-based overview of the impact of BMPs (including vegetated riparian buffer strips, precision slurry application, conversion to

  11. Democratic population decisions result in robust policy-gradient learning: a parametric study with GPU simulations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Richmond

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available High performance computing on the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU is an emerging field driven by the promise of high computational power at a low cost. However, GPU programming is a non-trivial task and moreover architectural limitations raise the question of whether investing effort in this direction may be worthwhile. In this work, we use GPU programming to simulate a two-layer network of Integrate-and-Fire neurons with varying degrees of recurrent connectivity and investigate its ability to learn a simplified navigation task using a policy-gradient learning rule stemming from Reinforcement Learning. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we want to support the use of GPUs in the field of Computational Neuroscience. Second, using GPU computing power, we investigate the conditions under which the said architecture and learning rule demonstrate best performance. Our work indicates that networks featuring strong Mexican-Hat-shaped recurrent connections in the top layer, where decision making is governed by the formation of a stable activity bump in the neural population (a "non-democratic" mechanism, achieve mediocre learning results at best. In absence of recurrent connections, where all neurons "vote" independently ("democratic" for a decision via population vector readout, the task is generally learned better and more robustly. Our study would have been extremely difficult on a desktop computer without the use of GPU programming. We present the routines developed for this purpose and show that a speed improvement of 5x up to 42x is provided versus optimised Python code. The higher speed is achieved when we exploit the parallelism of the GPU in the search of learning parameters. This suggests that efficient GPU programming can significantly reduce the time needed for simulating networks of spiking neurons, particularly when multiple parameter configurations are investigated.

  12. Evidence based policy making in the European Union. The role of the scientific community

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Majcen, Spela [Euro-Mediterranean Univ. (EMUNI), Portoroz (Slovenia)

    2017-03-15

    In the times when the acquis of the European Union (EU) has developed so far as to reach a high level of technical complexity, in particular in certain policy fields such as environmental legislation, it is important to look at what kind of information and data policy decisions are based on. This position paper looks at the extent to which evidence-based decision-making process is being considered in the EU institutions when it comes to adopting legislation in the field of environment at the EU level. The paper calls for closer collaboration between scientists and decision-makers in view of ensuring that correct data is understood and taken into consideration when drafting, amending, negotiating and adopting new legal texts at all levels of the EU decision-making process. It concludes that better awareness of the need for such collaboration among the decision-makers as well as the scientific community would benefit the process and quality of the final outcomes (legislation).

  13. Evidence based policy making in the European Union: the role of the scientific community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majcen, Špela

    2017-03-01

    In the times when the acquis of the European Union (EU) has developed so far as to reach a high level of technical complexity, in particular in certain policy fields such as environmental legislation, it is important to look at what kind of information and data policy decisions are based on. This position paper looks at the extent to which evidence-based decision-making process is being considered in the EU institutions when it comes to adopting legislation in the field of environment at the EU level. The paper calls for closer collaboration between scientists and decision-makers in view of ensuring that correct data is understood and taken into consideration when drafting, amending, negotiating and adopting new legal texts at all levels of the EU decision-making process. It concludes that better awareness of the need for such collaboration among the decision-makers as well as the scientific community would benefit the process and quality of the final outcomes (legislation).

  14. Evidence based policy making in the European Union. The role of the scientific community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majcen, Spela

    2017-01-01

    In the times when the acquis of the European Union (EU) has developed so far as to reach a high level of technical complexity, in particular in certain policy fields such as environmental legislation, it is important to look at what kind of information and data policy decisions are based on. This position paper looks at the extent to which evidence-based decision-making process is being considered in the EU institutions when it comes to adopting legislation in the field of environment at the EU level. The paper calls for closer collaboration between scientists and decision-makers in view of ensuring that correct data is understood and taken into consideration when drafting, amending, negotiating and adopting new legal texts at all levels of the EU decision-making process. It concludes that better awareness of the need for such collaboration among the decision-makers as well as the scientific community would benefit the process and quality of the final outcomes (legislation).

  15. Data policy and availability supporting global change research development, and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carroll, B.C.; Jack, R.F.; Cotter, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    An explosion of information has created a crisis for today's information age. We must determine how to use the best available information resources, tools, and technology. To do this, we need to have leadership at the interagency level to promote a coherent information policy. It is also important to find ways to educate the users of information regarding the tools available to them. This paper reports that advances in technology have resulted in efforts to shift from disciplinary and mission-oriented systems to decision support systems and personalized information systems. One such effort is being made by the Interagency Working Group on Data Management for Global Change (IWGDMGC). Five federal agencies - the Department of Commerce (DOC), Department of Energy (DOE), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National Library of Medicine (NLM), and Department of Defense (DoD) - have an ongoing cooperative information management group, Commerce, Energy, NASA, NLM, and Defense Information (CENDI), that is meeting the challenge of coordinating and integrating its information management systems. Although it is beginning to be technically feasible to have a system with text, bibliographic, and numeric data on-line for the user to manipulate at the user's own workstation, promoting its full development will require national recognition that the resource investment in such a system is worthwhile. It also requires close cooperation between the producers and users of the information - that is, the research and policy community and the information community. National resources need to be mobilized in a coordinated manner to move us into the next generation of information support systems

  16. Modelling and simulation-based acquisition decision support: present & future

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, S

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available stream_source_info Naidoo1_2009.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 24551 Content-Encoding UTF-8 stream_name Naidoo1_2009.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 1 Modelling & Simulation...-Based Acquisition Decision Support: Present & Future Shahen Naidoo Abstract The Ground Based Air Defence System (GBADS) Programme, of the South African Army has been applying modelling and simulation (M&S) to provide acquisition decision and doctrine...

  17. Promotion of technical harmonisation on risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchsteiger, Christian; Cojazzi, Giacomo

    2000-01-01

    The EC-JRC International Workshop on Promotion of Technical Harmonisation on Risk-Based Decision Making, held at Stresa and Ispra, Italy, 22-25 May 2000, was an experts meeting to discuss the possible need of developing an internationally accepted generic 'standard' for risk-based decision making.This paper briefly describes the workshop background, its organisation and summarises its main results and conclusions; it reflects the personal opinions of the authors and in no way commits the European Commission. (author)

  18. Towards An Intelligent Model-Based Decision Support System For An Integrated Oil Company (EGPC)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khorshid, M.; Hassan, H.; Abdel Latife, M.A.

    2004-01-01

    Decision Support System (DSS) is an interactive, flexible and adaptable computer-based support system specially developed for supporting the solution of unstructured management problems [31] DSS has become widespread for oil industry domain in recent years. The computer-based DSS, which were developed and implemented in oil industry, are used to address the complex short-term planning and operational issues associated with downstream industry. Most of these applications concentrate on the data-centered tools, while the model-centered applications of DSS are still very limited up till now [20]. This study develops an Intelligent Model-Based DSS for an integrated oil company, to help policy makers and petroleum planner in improving the effectiveness of the strategic planning in oil sector. This domain basically imposes semi-structured or unstructured decisions and involves a very complex modeling process

  19. Toward Coordinated Robust Allocation of Reserve Policies for a Cell-based Power System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Junjie; Heussen, Kai; Claessens, Bert

    2016-01-01

    Conventional regulation reserves have fixed participation factors and are thus not well suited to utilize differentiated capabilities of ancillary service providers. This study applies linear decision rules-based (LDR) control policies, which effectively adapt the present participation factor...... in dependence of the imbalance signal of previous time steps. The LDR-policies are centrally computed using a robust optimization approach which takes into account both the covariances of historic imbalance signals and the operational flexibility of ancillary service providers. The concept is then extended...... to the cooperation of multiple cells. Two illustrating examples are presented to show the functioning of the proposed LDR method....

  20. Seminal Quality Prediction Using Clustering-Based Decision Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Wang

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of seminal quality with statistical learning tools is an emerging methodology in decision support systems in biomedical engineering and is very useful in early diagnosis of seminal patients and selection of semen donors candidates. However, as is common in medical diagnosis, seminal quality prediction faces the class imbalance problem. In this paper, we propose a novel supervised ensemble learning approach, namely Clustering-Based Decision Forests, to tackle unbalanced class learning problem in seminal quality prediction. Experiment results on real fertility diagnosis dataset have shown that Clustering-Based Decision Forests outperforms decision tree, Support Vector Machines, random forests, multilayer perceptron neural networks and logistic regression by a noticeable margin. Clustering-Based Decision Forests can also be used to evaluate variables’ importance and the top five important factors that may affect semen concentration obtained in this study are age, serious trauma, sitting time, the season when the semen sample is produced, and high fevers in the last year. The findings could be helpful in explaining seminal concentration problems in infertile males or pre-screening semen donor candidates.

  1. COPE-SMARTER - A decision support system for analysing the challenges, opportunities and policy initiatives: A case study of electric commercial vehicles market diffusion in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn; Kaplan, Sigal; Frenzel, Ina

    2016-01-01

    Stakeholder's strategies in encouraging wide-scale market penetration depend on their perceptions. This study focuses on perceptions of Danish practitioners in policy-making organizations regarding the perceived challenges, opportunities and policy initiatives for the majority-market adoption...... of electric commercial vehicles (ECVs) in commercial sector in Denmark. We propose a new four-step expert-based technique, named COPE-SMARTER, for evaluating the market diffusion of environmental friendly technologies by combining SWOT analysis and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques. We focus...... on the perceptions regarding: (i) the potential promotional strength of motivators for ECV market penetration, (ii) the severity of the technological, financial, physical and operational challenges, (iii) the efficiency of policy initiatives in encouraging the market diffusion of ECVs, (iv) the expected market...

  2. A condition-based maintenance policy for multi-component systems with Lévy copulas dependence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Heping; Deloux, Estelle; Dieulle, Laurence

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new condition-based maintenance policy for multi-component systems taking into account stochastic and economic dependences. The stochastic dependence between components due to common environment is modelled by Lévy copulas. Its influence on the maintenance optimization is investigated with different dependence degrees. On the issue of economic dependence providing opportunities to group maintenance activities, a new maintenance decision rule is proposed which permits maintenance grouping. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed maintenance policy, we compare it to the classical maintenance policies. - Highlights: • A new adaptive maintenance policy for grouping maintenance actions is proposed. • The impacts of both economic and stochastic dependences are investigated. • The performance of the proposed maintenance policy is evaluated under different system configurations. • The stochastic dependence is modelled by Lévy copulas. • The proposed maintenance decision rule can take full advantage of economic and stochastic dependences.

  3. A qualitative study of nulliparous women's decision making on mode of delivery under China's two-child policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Chunyi; Zhu, Xinli; Ding, Yan; Setterberg Simone; Wang, Xiaojiao; Tao, Hua; Zhang, Yu

    2018-07-01

    To explore nulliparous women's perceptions of decision making regarding mode of delivery under China's two-child policy. Qualitative descriptive design with in-depth semi-structured interviews. Postnatal wards at a tertiary specialized women's hospital in Shanghai, China. 21 nulliparous women 2-3 days postpartum were purposively sampled until data saturation. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted between October 8th, 2015 and January 31st, 2016. Two overarching descriptive categories were identified: (1) women's decision-making process: stability versus variability, and (2) factors affecting decision making: variety versus interactivity. Four key themes emerged from each category: (1) initial decision making with certainty: anticipated trial of labour, failed trial of labour, 'shy away' and compromise, anticipated caesarean delivery; (2) initial decision making with uncertainty: anticipated trial of labour, failed trial of labour, 'shy away' and compromise; (3) internal factors affecting decision making: knowledge and attitude, and childbirth self-efficacy; and (4) external factors affecting decision making: social support, and the situational environment. At the initial period of China's two-child policy, nulliparous women have perceived their decision-making process regarding mode of delivery as one with complexity and uncertainty, influenced by both internal and external factors. This may have implications for the obstetric setting to develop a well-designed decision support system for pregnant women during the entire pregnancy periods. And it is recommended that care providers should assess women's preferences for mode of delivery from early pregnancy and provide adequate perinatal support and continuity of care for them. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Influence of branding on preference-based decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philiastides, Marios G; Ratcliff, Roger

    2013-07-01

    Branding has become one of the most important determinants of consumer choices. Intriguingly, the psychological mechanisms of how branding influences decision making remain elusive. In the research reported here, we used a preference-based decision-making task and computational modeling to identify which internal components of processing are affected by branding. We found that a process of noisy temporal integration of subjective value information can model preference-based choices reliably and that branding biases are explained by changes in the rate of the integration process itself. This result suggests that branding information and subjective preference are integrated into a single source of evidence in the decision-making process, thereby altering choice behavior.

  5. Launching a virtual decision lab: development and field-testing of a web-based patient decision support research platform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Aubri S; Llewellyn-Thomas, Hilary A; Tosteson, Anna N A; O'Connor, Annette M; Volk, Robert J; Tomek, Ivan M; Andrews, Steven B; Bartels, Stephen J

    2014-12-12

    Over 100 trials show that patient decision aids effectively improve patients' information comprehension and values-based decision making. However, gaps remain in our understanding of several fundamental and applied questions, particularly related to the design of interactive, personalized decision aids. This paper describes an interdisciplinary development process for, and early field testing of, a web-based patient decision support research platform, or virtual decision lab, to address these questions. An interdisciplinary stakeholder panel designed the web-based research platform with three components: a) an introduction to shared decision making, b) a web-based patient decision aid, and c) interactive data collection items. Iterative focus groups provided feedback on paper drafts and online prototypes. A field test assessed a) feasibility for using the research platform, in terms of recruitment, usage, and acceptability; and b) feasibility of using the web-based decision aid component, compared to performance of a videobooklet decision aid in clinical care. This interdisciplinary, theory-based, patient-centered design approach produced a prototype for field-testing in six months. Participants (n = 126) reported that: the decision aid component was easy to use (98%), information was clear (90%), the length was appropriate (100%), it was appropriately detailed (90%), and it held their interest (97%). They spent a mean of 36 minutes using the decision aid and 100% preferred using their home/library computer. Participants scored a mean of 75% correct on the Decision Quality, Knowledge Subscale, and 74 out of 100 on the Preparation for Decision Making Scale. Completing the web-based decision aid reduced mean Decisional Conflict scores from 31.1 to 19.5 (p development of a web-based patient decision support research platform that was feasible for use in research studies in terms of recruitment, acceptability, and usage. Within this platform, the web-based

  6. Policy-Based Negotiation Engine for Cross-Domain Interoperability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vatan, Farrokh; Chow, Edward T.

    2012-01-01

    A successful policy negotiation scheme for Policy-Based Management (PBM) has been implemented. Policy negotiation is the process of determining the "best" communication policy that all of the parties involved can agree on. Specifically, the problem is how to reconcile the various (and possibly conflicting) communication protocols used by different divisions. The solution must use protocols available to all parties involved, and should attempt to do so in the best way possible. Which protocols are commonly available, and what the definition of "best" is will be dependent on the parties involved and their individual communications priorities.

  7. Content-addressable memory based enforcement of configurable policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Michael J

    2014-05-06

    A monitoring device for monitoring transactions on a bus includes content-addressable memory ("CAM") and a response policy unit. The CAM includes an input coupled to receive a bus transaction tag based on bus traffic on the bus. The CAM stores data tags associated with rules of a security policy to compare the bus transaction tag to the data tags. The CAM generates an output signal indicating whether one or more matches occurred. The response policy unit is coupled to the CAM to receive the output signal from the CAM and to execute a policy action in response to the output signal.

  8. Strengthening Research Capacity and Evidence-Based Policy ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    ... wider Central Asian region lack capacity to conduct empirical analysis and create policies based on research evidence. To address government priorities, the region needs quality research driven by local demands and analytical skills that can inform effective development responses through policy. This 39-month project, ...

  9. A review of Agent Based Modeling for agricultural policy evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kremmydas, Dimitris; Athanasiadis, I.N.; Rozakis, Stelios

    2018-01-01

    Farm level scale policy analysis is receiving increased attention due to a changing agricultural policy orientation. Agent based models (ABM) are farm level models that have appeared in the end of 1990's, having several differences from traditional farm level models, like the consideration of

  10. Citizen participation in patient prioritization policy decisions: an empirical and experimental study on patients' characteristics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adele Diederich

    Full Text Available Health systems worldwide are grappling with the need to control costs to maintain system viability. With the combination of worsening economic conditions, an aging population and reductions in tax revenues, the pressures to make structural changes are expected to continue growing. Common cost control mechanisms, e.g. curtailment of patient access and treatment prioritization, are likely to be adversely viewed by citizens. It seems therefore wise to include them in the decision making processes that lead up to policy changes. In the context of a multilevel iterative mixed-method design a quantitative survey representative of the German population (N = 2031 was conducted to probe the acceptance of priority setting in medicine and to explore the practicability of direct public involvement. Here we focus on preferences for patients' characteristics (medical aspects, lifestyle and socio-economic status as possible criteria for prioritizing medical services. A questionnaire with closed response options was fielded to gain insight into attitudes toward broad prioritization criteria of patient groups. Furthermore, a discrete choice experiment was used as a rigorous approach to investigate citizens' preferences toward specific criteria level in context of other criteria. Both the questionnaire and the discrete choice experiment were performed with the same sample. The citizens' own health and social situation are included as explanatory variables. Data were evaluated using corresponding analysis, contingency analysis, logistic regression and a multinomial exploded logit model. The results show that some medical criteria are highly accepted for prioritizing patients whereas socio-economic criteria are rejected.

  11. Citizen participation in patient prioritization policy decisions: an empirical and experimental study on patients' characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diederich, Adele; Swait, Joffre; Wirsik, Norman

    2012-01-01

    Health systems worldwide are grappling with the need to control costs to maintain system viability. With the combination of worsening economic conditions, an aging population and reductions in tax revenues, the pressures to make structural changes are expected to continue growing. Common cost control mechanisms, e.g. curtailment of patient access and treatment prioritization, are likely to be adversely viewed by citizens. It seems therefore wise to include them in the decision making processes that lead up to policy changes. In the context of a multilevel iterative mixed-method design a quantitative survey representative of the German population (N = 2031) was conducted to probe the acceptance of priority setting in medicine and to explore the practicability of direct public involvement. Here we focus on preferences for patients' characteristics (medical aspects, lifestyle and socio-economic status) as possible criteria for prioritizing medical services. A questionnaire with closed response options was fielded to gain insight into attitudes toward broad prioritization criteria of patient groups. Furthermore, a discrete choice experiment was used as a rigorous approach to investigate citizens' preferences toward specific criteria level in context of other criteria. Both the questionnaire and the discrete choice experiment were performed with the same sample. The citizens' own health and social situation are included as explanatory variables. Data were evaluated using corresponding analysis, contingency analysis, logistic regression and a multinomial exploded logit model. The results show that some medical criteria are highly accepted for prioritizing patients whereas socio-economic criteria are rejected.

  12. Ignorance- versus evidence-based decision making: a decision time analysis of the recognition heuristic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilbig, Benjamin E; Pohl, Rüdiger F

    2009-09-01

    According to part of the adaptive toolbox notion of decision making known as the recognition heuristic (RH), the decision process in comparative judgments-and its duration-is determined by whether recognition discriminates between objects. By contrast, some recently proposed alternative models predict that choices largely depend on the amount of evidence speaking for each of the objects and that decision times thus depend on the evidential difference between objects, or the degree of conflict between options. This article presents 3 experiments that tested predictions derived from the RH against those from alternative models. All experiments used naturally recognized objects without teaching participants any information and thus provided optimal conditions for application of the RH. However, results supported the alternative, evidence-based models and often conflicted with the RH. Recognition was not the key determinant of decision times, whereas differences between objects with respect to (both positive and negative) evidence predicted effects well. In sum, alternative models that allow for the integration of different pieces of information may well provide a better account of comparative judgments. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

  13. Tactical decision games - developing scenario-based training for decision-making in distributed teams

    OpenAIRE

    Lauche, K.; Crichton, M.; Bayerl, P.S.

    2009-01-01

    Team training should reflect the increasing complexity of decision-making environments. Guidelines for scenario-based training were adopted for a distributed setting and tested in a pilot training session with a distributed team in the offshore oil industry. Participants valued the scenario as challenging and useful, but also highlighted problems of distributed communication. The findings were used to improve the training as well as current use of the technology in the organisation. Research ...

  14. Characteristics and use of urban health indicator tools by municipal built environment policy and decision-makers: a systematic review protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pineo, Helen; Glonti, Ketevan; Rutter, Harry; Zimmermann, Nicole; Wilkinson, Paul; Davies, Michael

    2017-01-13

    There is wide agreement that there is a lack of attention to health in municipal environmental policy-making, such as urban planning and regeneration. Explanations for this include differing professional norms between health and urban environment professionals, system complexity and limited evidence for causality between attributes of the built environment and health outcomes. Data from urban health indicator (UHI) tools are potentially a valuable form of evidence for local government policy and decision-makers. Although many UHI tools have been specifically developed to inform policy, there is poor understanding of how they are used. This study aims to identify the nature and characteristics of UHI tools and their use by municipal built environment policy and decision-makers. Health and social sciences databases (ASSIA, Campbell Library, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Scopus, Social Policy and Practice and Web of Science Core Collection) will be searched for studies using UHI tools alongside hand-searching of key journals and citation searches of included studies. Advanced searches of practitioner websites and Google will also be used to find grey literature. Search results will be screened for UHI tools, and for studies which report on or evaluate the use of such tools. Data about UHI tools will be extracted to compile a census and taxonomy of existing tools based on their specific characteristics and purpose. In addition, qualitative and quantitative studies about the use of these tools will be appraised using quality appraisal tools produced by the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and synthesised in order to gain insight into the perceptions, value and use of UHI tools in the municipal built environment policy and decision-making process. This review is not registered with PROSPERO. This systematic review focuses specifically on UHI tools that assess the physical environment's impact on health (such as transport, housing, air quality and greenspace

  15. Perceptual decision neurosciences: a model-based review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mulder, M.J.; van Maanen, L.; Forstmann, B.U.

    2014-01-01

    In this review we summarize findings published over the past 10 years focusing on the neural correlates of perceptual decision-making. Importantly, this review highlights only studies that employ a model-based approach, i.e., they use quantitative cognitive models in combination with neuroscientific

  16. Technical Note: Application of Decision Theory Based Criteria for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Technical Note: Application of Decision Theory Based Criteria for Structural Appraisal of a Building during Construction. ... Nigerian Journal of Technology ... reliability of concrete in a structure during construction, a case study of laboratory block for College of Continuing Education, University of Port Harcourt, Rivers State.

  17. Data-Based Decision Making in Teams: Enablers and Barriers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolhuis, Erik; Schildkamp, Kim; Voogt, Joke

    2016-01-01

    Data use is becoming more important in higher education. In this case study, a team of teachers from a teacher education college was supported in data-based decision making by means of the data team procedure. This data team studied the reasons why students drop out. A team's success depends in part on whether the team is able to develop and apply…

  18. Ethical Decisions in Experience-Based Training and Development Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gass, Michael A.; Wurdinger, Scott

    1993-01-01

    Illustrates how principle and virtue ethics can be applied to decision-making processes in experience-based training and development programs. Principle ethics is guided by predetermined rules and assumes that issues being examined are somewhat similar in context, whereas virtue ethics assumes that "correct behavior" is determined from…

  19. Multicriteria decision-making method based on a cosine similarity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    the cosine similarity measure is often used in information retrieval, citation analysis, and automatic classification. However, it scarcely deals with trapezoidal fuzzy information and multicriteria decision-making problems. For this purpose, a cosine similarity measure between trapezoidal fuzzy numbers is proposed based on ...

  20. ADDIS: A decision support system for evidence-based medicine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. van Valkenhoef (Gert); T. Tervonen (Tommi); T. Zwinkels (Tijs); B. de Brock (Bert); H.L. Hillege (Hans)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractClinical trials are the main source of information for the efficacy and safety evaluation of medical treatments. Although they are of pivotal importance in evidence-based medicine, there is a lack of usable information systems providing data-analysis and decision support capabilities for

  1. Model based decision support for planning of road maintenance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Harten, Aart; Worm, J.M.; Worm, J.M.

    1996-01-01

    In this article we describe a Decision Support Model, based on Operational Research methods, for the multi-period planning of maintenance of bituminous pavements. This model is a tool for the road manager to assist in generating an optimal maintenance plan for a road. Optimal means: minimising the

  2. The application of system dynamics modelling to environmental health decision-making and policy - a scoping review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, Danielle J; Smith, Carl; Jagals, Paul

    2018-03-27

    Policy and decision-making processes are routinely challenged by the complex and dynamic nature of environmental health problems. System dynamics modelling has demonstrated considerable value across a number of different fields to help decision-makers understand and predict the dynamic behaviour of complex systems in support the development of effective policy actions. In this scoping review we investigate if, and in what contexts, system dynamics modelling is being used to inform policy or decision-making processes related to environmental health. Four electronic databases and the grey literature were systematically searched to identify studies that intersect the areas environmental health, system dynamics modelling, and decision-making. Studies identified in the initial screening were further screened for their contextual, methodological and application-related relevancy. Studies deemed 'relevant' or 'highly relevant' according to all three criteria were included in this review. Key themes related to the rationale, impact and limitation of using system dynamics in the context of environmental health decision-making and policy were analysed. We identified a limited number of relevant studies (n = 15), two-thirds of which were conducted between 2011 and 2016. The majority of applications occurred in non-health related sectors (n = 9) including transportation, public utilities, water, housing, food, agriculture, and urban and regional planning. Applications were primarily targeted at micro-level (local, community or grassroots) decision-making processes (n = 9), with macro-level (national or international) decision-making to a lesser degree. There was significant heterogeneity in the stated rationales for using system dynamics and the intended impact of the system dynamics model on decision-making processes. A series of user-related, technical and application-related limitations and challenges were identified. None of the reported limitations or challenges

  3. Risk Decision Making Based on Decision-theoretic Rough Set: A Three-way View Decision Model

    OpenAIRE

    Huaxiong Li; Xianzhong Zhou

    2011-01-01

    Rough set theory has witnessed great success in data mining and knowledge discovery, which provides a good support for decision making on a certain data. However, a practical decision problem always shows diversity under the same circumstance according to different personality of the decision makers. A simplex decision model can not provide a full description on such diverse decisions. In this article, a review of Pawlak rough set models and probabilistic rough set models is presented, and a ...

  4. An Isometric Mapping Based Co-Location Decision Tree Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, G.; Wei, J.; Zhou, X.; Zhang, R.; Huang, W.; Sha, H.; Chen, J.

    2018-05-01

    Decision tree (DT) induction has been widely used in different pattern classification. However, most traditional DTs have the disadvantage that they consider only non-spatial attributes (ie, spectral information) as a result of classifying pixels, which can result in objects being misclassified. Therefore, some researchers have proposed a co-location decision tree (Cl-DT) method, which combines co-location and decision tree to solve the above the above-mentioned traditional decision tree problems. Cl-DT overcomes the shortcomings of the existing DT algorithms, which create a node for each value of a given attribute, which has a higher accuracy than the existing decision tree approach. However, for non-linearly distributed data instances, the euclidean distance between instances does not reflect the true positional relationship between them. In order to overcome these shortcomings, this paper proposes an isometric mapping method based on Cl-DT (called, (Isomap-based Cl-DT), which is a method that combines heterogeneous and Cl-DT together. Because isometric mapping methods use geodetic distances instead of Euclidean distances between non-linearly distributed instances, the true distance between instances can be reflected. The experimental results and several comparative analyzes show that: (1) The extraction method of exposed carbonate rocks is of high accuracy. (2) The proposed method has many advantages, because the total number of nodes, the number of leaf nodes and the number of nodes are greatly reduced compared to Cl-DT. Therefore, the Isomap -based Cl-DT algorithm can construct a more accurate and faster decision tree.

  5. AN ISOMETRIC MAPPING BASED CO-LOCATION DECISION TREE ALGORITHM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Zhou

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Decision tree (DT induction has been widely used in different pattern classification. However, most traditional DTs have the disadvantage that they consider only non-spatial attributes (ie, spectral information as a result of classifying pixels, which can result in objects being misclassified. Therefore, some researchers have proposed a co-location decision tree (Cl-DT method, which combines co-location and decision tree to solve the above the above-mentioned traditional decision tree problems. Cl-DT overcomes the shortcomings of the existing DT algorithms, which create a node for each value of a given attribute, which has a higher accuracy than the existing decision tree approach. However, for non-linearly distributed data instances, the euclidean distance between instances does not reflect the true positional relationship between them. In order to overcome these shortcomings, this paper proposes an isometric mapping method based on Cl-DT (called, (Isomap-based Cl-DT, which is a method that combines heterogeneous and Cl-DT together. Because isometric mapping methods use geodetic distances instead of Euclidean distances between non-linearly distributed instances, the true distance between instances can be reflected. The experimental results and several comparative analyzes show that: (1 The extraction method of exposed carbonate rocks is of high accuracy. (2 The proposed method has many advantages, because the total number of nodes, the number of leaf nodes and the number of nodes are greatly reduced compared to Cl-DT. Therefore, the Isomap -based Cl-DT algorithm can construct a more accurate and faster decision tree.

  6. Simulation-based decision support for evaluating operational plans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johan Schubert

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we describe simulation-based decision support techniques for evaluation of operational plans within effects-based planning. Using a decision support tool, developers of operational plans are able to evaluate thousands of alternative plans against possible courses of events and decide which of these plans are capable of achieving a desired end state. The objective of this study is to examine the potential of a decision support system that helps operational analysts understand the consequences of numerous alternative plans through simulation and evaluation. Operational plans are described in the effects-based approach to operations concept as a set of actions and effects. For each action, we examine several different alternative ways to perform the action. We use a representation where a plan consists of several actions that should be performed. Each action may be performed in one of several different alternative ways. Together these action alternatives make up all possible plan instances, which are represented as a tree of action alternatives that may be searched for the most effective sequence of alternative actions. As a test case, we use an expeditionary operation with a plan of 43 actions and several alternatives for these actions, as well as a scenario of 40 group actors. Decision support for planners is provided by several methods that analyze the impact of a plan on the 40 actors, e.g., by visualizing time series of plan performance. Detailed decision support for finding the most influential actions of a plan is presented by using sensitivity analysis and regression tree analysis. Finally, a decision maker may use the tool to determine the boundaries of an operation that it must not move beyond without risk of drastic failure. The significant contribution of this study is the presentation of an integrated approach for evaluation of operational plans.

  7. Applying air pollution modelling within a multi-criteria decision analysis framework to evaluate UK air quality policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalabi, Zaid; Milojevic, Ai; Doherty, Ruth M.; Stevenson, David S.; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Milner, James; Vieno, Massimo; Williams, Martin; Wilkinson, Paul

    2017-10-01

    A decision support system for evaluating UK air quality policies is presented. It combines the output from a chemistry transport model, a health impact model and other impact models within a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework. As a proof-of-concept, the MCDA framework is used to evaluate and compare idealized emission reduction policies in four sectors (combustion in energy and transformation industries, non-industrial combustion plants, road transport and agriculture) and across six outcomes or criteria (mortality, health inequality, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, crop yield and air quality legal compliance). To illustrate a realistic use of the MCDA framework, the relative importance of the criteria were elicited from a number of stakeholders acting as proxy policy makers. In the prototype decision problem, we show that reducing emissions from industrial combustion (followed very closely by road transport and agriculture) is more advantageous than equivalent reductions from the other sectors when all the criteria are taken into account. Extensions of the MCDA framework to support policy makers in practice are discussed.

  8. Analytical evaluation of computer-based decision aids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kisner, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This paper introduces a method for evaluating decision aids for nuclear power plant operators. The method involves a two-stage process of classification and analytical evaluation of display form and content. The classification scheme relates each specific aid to one or more general decision-making tasks. Evaluation then proceeds using a normative top-down design process based on the classification scheme by determining or deducing how various design issues associated with this process were resolved by the designer. The result is an assessment of the ''understandability'' of the aid as well as identification of the training and display features necessary to ensure understandability. 7 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

  9. Data warehouse based decision support system in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nadinic, B.

    2004-01-01

    Safety is an important element in business decision making processes in nuclear power plants. Information about component reliability, structures and systems, data recorded during the nuclear power plant's operation and outage periods, as well as experiences from other power plants are located in different database systems throughout the power plant. It would be possible to create a decision support system which would collect data, transform it into a standardized form and store it in a single location in a format more suitable for analyses and knowledge discovery. This single location where the data would be stored would be a data warehouse. Such data warehouse based decision support system could help make decision making processes more efficient by providing more information about business processes and predicting possible consequences of different decisions. Two main functionalities in this decision support system would be an OLAP (On Line Analytical Processing) and a data mining system. An OLAP system would enable the users to perform fast, simple and efficient multidimensional analysis of existing data and identify trends. Data mining techniques and algorithms would help discover new, previously unknown information from the data as well as hidden dependencies between various parameters. Data mining would also enable analysts to create relevant prediction models that could predict behaviour of different systems during operation and inspection results during outages. The basic characteristics and theoretical foundations of such decision support system are described and the reasons for choosing a data warehouse as the underlying structure are explained. The article analyzes obvious business benefits of such system as well as potential uses of OLAP and data mining technologies. Possible implementation methodologies and problems that may arise, especially in the field of data integration, are discussed and analyzed.(author)

  10. Optimal pricing and lot-sizing decisions under Weibull distribution deterioration and trade credit policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manna S.K.

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of simultaneous determination of retail price and lot-size (RPLS under the assumption that the supplier offers a fixed credit period to the retailer. It is assumed that the item in stock deteriorates over time at a rate that follows a two-parameter Weibull distribution and that the price-dependent demand is represented by a constant-price-elasticity function of retail price. The RPLS decision model is developed and solved analytically. Results are illustrated with the help of a base example. Computational results show that the supplier earns more profits when the credit period is greater than the replenishment cycle length. Sensitivity analysis of the solution to changes in the value of input parameters of the base example is also discussed.

  11. Policy design and performance of emissions trading markets: an adaptive agent-based analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bing, Zhang; Qinqin, Yu; Jun, Bi

    2010-08-01

    Emissions trading is considered to be a cost-effective environmental economic instrument for pollution control. However, the pilot emissions trading programs in China have failed to bring remarkable success in the campaign for pollution control. The policy design of an emissions trading program is found to have a decisive impact on its performance. In this study, an artificial market for sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions trading applying the agent-based model was constructed. The performance of the Jiangsu SO2 emissions trading market under different policy design scenario was also examined. Results show that the market efficiency of emissions trading is significantly affected by policy design and existing policies. China's coal-electricity price system is the principal factor influencing the performance of the SO2 emissions trading market. Transaction costs would also reduce market efficiency. In addition, current-level emissions discharge fee/tax and banking mechanisms do not distinctly affect policy performance. Thus, applying emissions trading in emission control in China should consider policy design and interaction with other existing policies.

  12. Strengthening Science-based Environmental Policy Development in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Strengthening Science-based Environmental Policy Development in Burma's Democratic ... IDRC is providing funding to Simon Fraser University to support a network of ... The project will also encourage and assist in the creation of a business ...

  13. Moving Zimbabwe Forward : an Evidence Based Policy Dialogue ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Moving Zimbabwe Forward : an Evidence Based Policy Dialogue ... levels of poverty, unemployment, inflation and poor service provision in the areas of education, ... International Water Resources Association, in close collaboration with IDRC, ...

  14. H.264 SVC Complexity Reduction Based on Likelihood Mode Decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Balaji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available H.264 Advanced Video Coding (AVC was prolonged to Scalable Video Coding (SVC. SVC executes in different electronics gadgets such as personal computer, HDTV, SDTV, IPTV, and full-HDTV in which user demands various scaling of the same content. The various scaling is resolution, frame rate, quality, heterogeneous networks, bandwidth, and so forth. Scaling consumes more encoding time and computational complexity during mode selection. In this paper, to reduce encoding time and computational complexity, a fast mode decision algorithm based on likelihood mode decision (LMD is proposed. LMD is evaluated in both temporal and spatial scaling. From the results, we conclude that LMD performs well, when compared to the previous fast mode decision algorithms. The comparison parameters are time, PSNR, and bit rate. LMD achieve time saving of 66.65% with 0.05% detriment in PSNR and 0.17% increment in bit rate compared with the full search method.

  15. H.264 SVC Complexity Reduction Based on Likelihood Mode Decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balaji, L; Thyagharajan, K K

    2015-01-01

    H.264 Advanced Video Coding (AVC) was prolonged to Scalable Video Coding (SVC). SVC executes in different electronics gadgets such as personal computer, HDTV, SDTV, IPTV, and full-HDTV in which user demands various scaling of the same content. The various scaling is resolution, frame rate, quality, heterogeneous networks, bandwidth, and so forth. Scaling consumes more encoding time and computational complexity during mode selection. In this paper, to reduce encoding time and computational complexity, a fast mode decision algorithm based on likelihood mode decision (LMD) is proposed. LMD is evaluated in both temporal and spatial scaling. From the results, we conclude that LMD performs well, when compared to the previous fast mode decision algorithms. The comparison parameters are time, PSNR, and bit rate. LMD achieve time saving of 66.65% with 0.05% detriment in PSNR and 0.17% increment in bit rate compared with the full search method.

  16. Decision makers, scientists and the public as stakeholders: the connection between traffic intervention policy and air quality in a local context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiand, L.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Schmitz, S.; Niehoff, N.

    2017-12-01

    Urban mobility is a key issue to make cities more inclusive, safer, and more environmentally friendly. To ensure a sustainable future, local policy should, among other actions, aim to improve access to sustainable transport systems and enhance mobility opportunities, while at the same time addressing critical environmental and health targets. In order to assess whether these objectives are met, measures should be informed and evaluated from a social and environmental perspective. Citizens' opinions and the acceptance of environmental policies are crucial to successful implementation of urban mobility measures. The complexity of urban air quality issues require transparent decision-making processes that are grounded in evidence-based research and embrace local knowledge. From this basis, our research group and the city council collaborated to assess a new policy action intended to address environmental and health targets. This talk will present the results from the assessment of this new policy, that was implemented in large part to alleviate air quality exceedances, from the perspective of public acceptability of the measure and the approach taken by the city council to implement the measure. Parallel to assessing the effect of this policy on the recorded levels of air pollution and traffic counts, we conducted a social survey to examine public opinions of this measure, as well as the link between air quality awareness and mobility decisions. 4661 responses were collected over a one month period. Survey participants were those most affected by the traffic measure, including commuters and local residents. The results show that there is an overall low acceptance rate of the measure (8%) as well as low concern for air quality (2,90 - where 1 = not concerned and 6 = very concerned). We also found that there is a negative relationship between air quality rating and air quality concern. A similar approach was taken to understand climate change concern, which will be

  17. What defines 'enough' information? How policy workers make judgements and decisions during information seeking: preliminary results from an exploratory study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.M. Berryman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Reports findings from research in progress investigating judgment and decision making during information seeking in the workplace, in particular, the assessment of enough information. Characteristics of this judgment and the role of context in shaping it are framed against theories of human judgment and decision making. Method. Thirty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted with public sector policy workers in Australia. Two interviews were carried out, the first with individual participants and the second, a joint interview with two participants. Interviews were taped and transcribed and inductive data analysis carried out. Findings. Findings discussed in this paper focus on contextual factors that frame policy workers' judgment and decision making while information seeking, factors including ill-structured problems, shifting goals, time stress and action-feedback loops. Also revealed was the importance of developing a framework, against which the judgment of enough information can be made, and the fluid and iterative nature of these judgments. Conclusion. The contextual factors reported show similarities with those identified by naturalistic decision making researchers, suggesting this new field of decision theory has much to offer researchers into information seeking in context.

  18. Development of policies for Natura 2000 sites: a multi-criteria approach to support decision makers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortina, Carla; Boggia, Antonio

    2014-08-01

    The aim of this study is to present a methodology to support decision makers in the choice of Natura 2000 sites needing an appropriate management plan to ensure a sustainable socio-economic development. In order to promote sustainable development in the Natura 2000 sites compatible with nature preservation, conservation measures or management plans are necessary. The main issue is to decide when only conservation measures can be applied and when the sites need an appropriate management plan. We present a case study for the Italian Region of Umbria. The methodology is based on a multi-criteria approach to identify the biodiversity index (BI), and on the development of a human activities index (HAI). By crossing the two indexes for each site on a Cartesian plane, four groups of sites were identified. Each group corresponds to a specific need for an appropriate management plan. Sites in the first group with a high level both of biodiversity and human activities have the most urgent need of an appropriate management plan to ensure sustainable development. The proposed methodology and analysis is replicable in other regions or countries by using the data available for each site in the Natura 2000 standard data form. A multi-criteria analysis is especially suitable for supporting decision makers when they deal with a multidimensional decision process. We found the multi-criteria approach particularly sound in this case, due to the concept of biodiversity itself, which is complex and multidimensional, and to the high number of alternatives (Natura 2000 sites) to be assessed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. GROUP POLICY BASED AUTHENTICATION ON INCOMING CALLS FOR ANDROID SMARTPHONES

    OpenAIRE

    Sunita M. Kumbhar, Prof. Z.M Shaikh

    2016-01-01

    The numbers of Smartphone users increasing day by day. Hence, there is need to propose advanced Group Policy based Authentication for incoming calls for Android phone. Android platform provides a variety of functions that support the programming of face recognition, as in image processing. Group policy based authentication scheme increases the security which restricts the access of incoming call form un-authorized user. To solve problems, related to face recognition should be applied in the p...

  20. Integrated Case Based and Rule Based Reasoning for Decision Support

    OpenAIRE

    Eshete, Azeb Bekele

    2009-01-01

    This project is a continuation of my specialization project which was focused on studying theoretical concepts related to case based reasoning method, rule based reasoning method and integration of them. The integration of rule-based and case-based reasoning methods has shown a substantial improvement with regards to performance over the individual methods. Verdande Technology As wants to try integrating the rule based reasoning method with an existing case based system. This project focu...

  1. Policy proceses, principles and decision making of the environmental policy in Great Britain and France. Vol. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schreiber, H.

    1991-01-01

    Research of central aspects of French environmental policy. This report concentrates on the role of the constitutional system and the influence of ecological topics on the politics of the central level. The implementation of central environmental topics of lower levels - regional departmental and communal level. Presentation of the state of the French environment (Pollution: Air, Water, Waste, Soil, Radiactivity and Noise). Beyond that this report evaluates French positions and activities of environmental policy on EEC-level and worldwide. Finally the bilateral cooperation on the field of environmental protection between France and the Federal Republic of Germany is analyzed. (orig.) With 31 refs., 12 tabs., 3 figs [de

  2. Use of monitoring data to support conservation management and policy decisions in Micronesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montambault, Jensen Reitz; Wongbusarakum, Supin; Leberer, Trina; Joseph, Eugene; Andrew, Wayne; Castro, Fran; Nevitt, Brooke; Golbuu, Yimnang; Oldiais, Noelle W; Groves, Craig R; Kostka, Willy; Houk, Peter

    2015-10-01

    Adaptive management implies a continuous knowledge-based decision-making process in conservation. Yet, the coupling of scientific monitoring and management frameworks remains rare in practice because formal and informal communication pathways are lacking. We examined 4 cases in Micronesia where conservation practitioners are using new knowledge in the form of monitoring data to advance marine conservation. These cases were drawn from projects in Micronesia Challenge jurisdictions that received funding for coupled monitoring-to-management frameworks and encompassed all segments of adaptive management. Monitoring in Helen Reef, Republic of Palau, was catalyzed by coral bleaching and revealed evidence of overfishing that led to increased enforcement and outreach. In Nimpal Channel, Yap, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), monitoring the recovery of marine food resources after customary restrictions were put in place led to new, more effective enforcement approaches. Monitoring in Laolao Bay, Saipan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, was catalyzed by observable sediment loads from poor land-use practices and resulted in actions that reduced land-based threats, particularly littering and illegal burning, and revealed additional threats from overfishing. Pohnpei (FSM) began monitoring after observed declines in grouper spawning aggregations. This data led to adjusting marine conservation area boundaries and implementing market-based size class restrictions. Two themes emerged from these cases. First, in each case monitoring was conducted in a manner relevant to the social and ecological systems and integrated into the decision-making process. Second, conservation practitioners and scientists in these cases integrated culturally appropriate stakeholder engagement throughout all phases of the adaptive management cycle. More broadly, our study suggests, when describing adaptive management, providing more details on how monitoring and management activities are

  3. Policy recommendations to promote shale gas development in China based on a technical and economic evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Jiehui; Luo, Dongkun; Xia, Liangyu; Feng, Lianyong

    2015-01-01

    Because of its resource potential and clean burning advantages, the development of shale gas can significantly increase the supply of cleaner energy while offering the associated benefits. To foster shale gas development, many policy incentives have been introduced in China. However, the current incentives have not been sufficiently aggressive, and the shale gas industry has been slow to develop. Existing policies thus need to be further improved. To provide effective support for decision makers in China, a technical and economic evaluation is performed in this study to explore the profitability of shale gas production in pilot zones. The results show that shale gas production is subeconomic under the current technical and economic conditions. Based on this evaluation, a policy analysis is conducted to investigate the profitability improvement offered by the major policies available in China to elucidate a path toward improving incentive policies. The results indicate that policy instruments related to gas prices, financial subsidies, corporate income taxes or combinations thereof could be used as priority options to improve policy incentives. Based on these results, recommendations are presented to improve the current incentive polices aimed at accelerating shale gas development. -- Highlights: •We explore the economic feasibility of shale gas development in China. •Current incentive policies cannot render shale gas development economically viable. •These incentives must be improved to effectively promote shale gas development. •We investigate the effect of the major policies available in China to light a path. •Recommendations are proposed to continually improve the incentive polices in China

  4. Assessing the Atmospheric Pollution of Energy Facilities for Supporting Energy Policy Decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meneses Ruiz, E.; Alonso García, D.; Pérez Zayas, G.; Piñera Hernández, I.; Martinez Varona, M.; Molina Esquivel, E.

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of different energy facilities on the environment and human health are a matter of interest and concern throughout the world. For example, fossil fuels are one of the energy sources of more undesirable effects on the environment, but this energy is still one of the most competitive at the market, especially for the developing countries. However, it is necessary to find out a balance between the costs of achieving a lower level of environmental and health injury and the benefits of providing electricity at a reasonable cost. With a view to solving the current deficit in energy production (mainly in electricity generation) in the light of major transformations in the energy sector, the Cuban Government is evaluating ways of incorporating new sources and technologies and the expansion of existing capabilities. In this context non-fossil energy sources will play an increasingly important role. The present work shows the results obtained in the frame of the IAEA Technical Cooperation Project CUB7007. The project integrated several tools and methodologies in the field of air quality modelling and its assessment, emissions measurement and nuclear techniques. The main objective was to assess atmospheric pollution from various energy facilities for supporting energy policy decisions by incorporating nuclear techniques (proton-induced X–ray emission, neutron activation and X–ray fluorescence) for estimating the elementary composition of particulate matter. As results were consolidated national laboratories in the application of nuclear and nonnuclear techniques to support environmental studies, especially for the analysis of emissions in chimneys and ambient air sampling. Moreover, all energy technologies considered in the national strategy of development were assessed. (author)

  5. Integrating technical analysis and public values in risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohnenblust, Hans; Slovic, Paul

    1998-01-01

    Simple technical analysis cannot capture the complex scope of preferences or values of society and individuals. However, decision making needs to be sustained by formal analysis. The paper describes a policy framework which incorporates both technical analysis and aspects of public values. The framework can be used as a decision supporting tool and helps decision makers to make more informed and more transparent decisions about safety issues

  6. Teenagers' licensing decisions and their views of licensing policies: a national survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Allan F

    2011-08-01

    One objective was to determine teenage licensing rates on a national basis, interest in early licensure, and reasons for delay. A second objective was to learn teenagers' opinions about licensing policies, important in states considering ways to upgrade their current licensing systems. One thousand three hundred eighty-three 15- to 18-year-olds completed an online survey in November 2010. They were drawn from a nationally representative panel of US households recruited using probability-based sampling. The panel included cell phone-only households, and Internet access was provided to those without it. Weighting procedures were applied so that the study population represented the national US population of 15- to 18-year-olds. Most teens said that they were interested in getting a license as soon as legally possible, but many had not started the process. At 16, teens were about equally divided among those who had not started, those in the learner stage, and those with a restricted or full license. At 18, 62 percent had full licenses; 22 percent had not started. For those old enough to start, lack of a car, costs, parent availability, ability to get around without a car, and being busy with other activities were leading reasons for delay. The majority of teens were not in favor of higher licensing ages. Forty-six percent thought the minimum learner age should be 16; 30 percent thought the full license age should be 18 or older. The majority approved of night (78%) and passenger (57%) restrictions, and 85 and 93 percent endorsed cell phone and texting bans, respectively. When these policies were packaged together in a single law that included an age 16 start, night, passenger, cell phone and texting bans, and a full license at age 18, 74 percent of teens were in favor. Teenagers are not as supportive of strong licensing policies as parents of teens, but there is evidence that they will support comprehensive policies likely to lead to further reductions in teen crash

  7. Agent-Based Modeling of Consumer Decision making Process Based on Power Distance and Personality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roozmand, O.; Ghasem-Aghaee, N.; Hofstede, G.J.; Nematbakhsh, M.A.; Baraani, A.; Verwaart, T.

    2011-01-01

    Simulating consumer decision making processes involves different disciplines such as: sociology, social psychology, marketing, and computer science. In this paper, we propose an agent-based conceptual and computational model of consumer decision-making based on culture, personality and human needs.

  8. The need to go beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahearne, J.F. [The Sigma XI Center, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)

    1999-12-01

    As a physicist, I prefer the R = P x C, with the inclusion of a risk magnifier when appropriate. However, I also accept this is inadequate. For risk-based decisions to be acceptable in a democratic society, there must be widespread agreement on the criteria to be used, the process by which the decision is reached, and the linkage between the criteria and the decision. These demand a transparent process. Armour wrote: 'To date, efforts directed toward facility siting conflicts have focused almost exclusively on the 'public acceptance' factor (and neglected the legitimacy of the process] - the sad reality is that these strategies have not beenall that effective. Moreover, given that the underlying motivation is to 'gain public acceptance' such strategies have often worsened the facility siting problems when used by proponents who were unable, in appearance or in fact, to tread the fine line between manipulating public opinion and liberating it ... the issue of the legitimacy of the decision making process had tended to be taken for granted. Generally speaking, policy makers have failed to seriously question and have not responded well to others who have dared to question the established roles and principles of our conventional processes of decision making.' Finally, acceptance also requires agreement that the issues to be decided are the appropriate issues. Often the decision-makers concentrate on issues that are not the ones the public views as the most important. Sometimes it is because the public wants other alternatives examined. Sometimes it is because the public does not accept the necessity to decide now. And sometimes it is because the public does not trust those who have assumed responsibility for making the decision. The analytic community has grown in size and skill over the last 20 years. The science community has produced a better understanding of health effects and exposure pathways. The engineering community has designed

  9. The need to go beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahearne, J.F.

    1999-01-01

    As a physicist, I prefer the R = P x C, with the inclusion of a risk magnifier when appropriate. However, I also accept this is inadequate. For risk-based decisions to be acceptable in a democratic society, there must be widespread agreement on the criteria to be used, the process by which the decision is reached, and the linkage between the criteria and the decision. These demand a transparent process. Armour wrote: 'To date, efforts directed toward facility siting conflicts have focused almost exclusively on the 'public acceptance' factor (and neglected the legitimacy of the process] - the sad reality is that these strategies have not been all that effective. Moreover, given that the underlying motivation is to 'gain public acceptance' such strategies have often worsened the facility siting problems when used by proponents who were unable, in appearance or in fact, to tread the fine line between manipulating public opinion and liberating it ... the issue of the legitimacy of the decision making process had tended to be taken for granted. Generally speaking, policy makers have failed to seriously question and have not responded well to others who have dared to question the established roles and principles of our conventional processes of decision making.' Finally, acceptance also requires agreement that the issues to be decided are the appropriate issues. Often the decision-makers concentrate on issues that are not the ones the public views as the most important. Sometimes it is because the public wants other alternatives examined. Sometimes it is because the public does not accept the necessity to decide now. And sometimes it is because the public does not trust those who have assumed responsibility for making the decision. The analytic community has grown in size and skill over the last 20 years. The science community has produced a better understanding of health effects and exposure pathways. The engineering community has designed safer systems. However, the

  10. Government Accountability Reports and Public Education Policy: Studying Political Actors' Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salazar, Timothy Ross

    2013-01-01

    This study asks how government accountability reports are used to influence public education policy. Government accountability reports, called "audits" in Utah, prove to be useful tools for examining education policy. Using a collective case study design examining Utah's Class Size Reduction (CSR) policy, government accountability…

  11. Ecosystem Based Management in Transition: From Ocean Policy to Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saumweber, W. J.; Goldman, E.

    2016-12-01

    Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has been proposed as a means to improve resource management and stewardship for more than two decades. Over this history, its exact goals and approaches have evolved in concert with advances in science and policy, including a greater understanding of ecosystem function, valuation, and thresholds for change, along with direct reference to EBM principles in statute, regulation, and other Executive Actions. Most recently, and explicitly, the Administration's National Ocean Policy (NOP) called for the development of a Federal EBM framework that would outline principles and guidelines for implementing EBM under existing authorities. This cross-agency framework has yet to be developed, but, the NOP, and related Administration initiatives, have resulted in the practical application of EBM principles in several issue-specific policy initiatives ranging from fisheries and marine protected area management to coastal adaptation and water resource infrastructure investment. In each case, the application of EBM principles uses apparently unique policy mechanisms (e.g. marine planning, ecosystem services assessment, adaptive management, dynamic ocean management, etc.). Despite differences in terminology and policy context, each of these policy initiatives is linked at its core to concepts of integrated and adaptive management that consider broad ecosystem function and services. This practical history of EBM implementation speaks to both the challenges and opportunities in broad incorporation of EBM across diverse policy initiatives and frameworks. We suggest that the continued growth of EBM as a practical policy concept will require a move away from broad frameworks, and towards the identification of specific resource management issues and accompanying policy levers with which to address those issues. In order to promote this progression, Federal policy should recognize and articulate the diverse set of policy mechanisms encompassed under the

  12. Multiple Attribute Decision Making Based on Cross-Evaluation with Uncertain Decision Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Ding

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Multiple attribute decision making (MADM problem is one of the most common and popular research fields in the theory of decision science. A variety of methods have been proposed to deal with such problems. Nevertheless, many of them assumed that attribute weights are determined by different types of additional preference information which will result in subjective decision making. In order to solve such problems, in this paper, we propose a novel MADM approach based on cross-evaluation with uncertain parameters. Specifically, the proposed approach assumes that all attribute weights are uncertain. It can overcome the drawback in prior research that the alternatives’ ranking may be determined by a single attribute with an overestimated weight. In addition, the proposed method can also balance the mean and deviation of each alternative’s cross-evaluation score to guarantee the stability of evaluation. Then, this method is extended to a more generalized situation where the attribute values are also uncertain. Finally, we illustrate the applicability of the proposed method by revisiting two reported studies and by a case study on the selection of community service companies in the city of Hefei in China.

  13. People, Process, and Policy: Case Studies in National Security Advising, the National Security Council, and Presidential Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-01

    confirmation of Lake’s concerns with the administration’s public relations failures, David Gergen, the president’s communications advisor, increased... Public Affairs: 389-395. 75 these positions, he did not openly object too them during the campaign. Additionally, as this case study shows, he...PEOPLE, PROCESS, AND POLICY: CASE STUDIES IN NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISING, THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL, AND PRESIDENTIAL DECISION MAKING

  14. Evidence-based decision-making 7: Knowledge translation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manns, Braden J

    2015-01-01

    There is a significant gap between what is known and what is implemented by key stakeholders in practice (the evidence to practice gap). The primary purpose of knowledge translation is to address this gap, bridging evidence to clinical practice. The knowledge to action cycle is one framework for knowledge translation that integrates policy-makers throughout the research cycle. The knowledge to action cycle begins with the identification of a problem (usually a gap in care provision). After identification of the problem, knowledge creation is undertaken, depicted at the center of the cycle as a funnel. Knowledge inquiry is at the wide end of the funnel, and moving down the funnel, the primary data is synthesized into knowledge products in the form of educational materials, guidelines, decision aids, or clinical pathways. The remaining components of the knowledge to action cycle refer to the action of applying the knowledge that has been created. This includes adapting knowledge to local context, assessing barriers to knowledge use, selecting, tailoring implementing interventions, monitoring knowledge use, evaluating outcomes, and sustaining knowledge use. Each of these steps is connected by bidirectional arrows and ideally involves healthcare decision-makers and key stakeholders at each transition.

  15. Shared Decision Making in Intensive Care Units: An American College of Critical Care Medicine and American Thoracic Society Policy Statement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kon, Alexander A.; Davidson, Judy E.; Morrison, Wynne; Danis, Marion; White, Douglas B.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Shared decision-making (SDM) is endorsed by critical care organizations, however there remains confusion about what SDM is, when it should be used, and approaches to promote partnerships in treatment decisions. The purpose of this statement is to define SDM, recommend when SDM should be used, identify the range of ethically acceptable decision-making models, and present important communication skills. Methods The American College of Critical Care Medicine (ACCM) and American Thoracic Society (ATS) Ethics Committees reviewed empirical research and normative analyses published in peer-reviewed journals to generate recommendations. Recommendations approved by consensus of the full Ethics Committees of ACCM and ATS were included in the statement. Main Results Six recommendations were endorsed: 1) Definition: Shared decision-making is a collaborative process that allows patients, or their surrogates, and clinicians to make health care decisions together, taking into account the best scientific evidence available, as well as the patient’s values, goals, and preferences. 2) Clinicians should engage in a SDM process to define overall goals of care (including decisions regarding limiting or withdrawing life-prolonging interventions) and when making major treatment decisions that may be affected by personal values, goals, and preferences. 3) Clinicians should use as their “default” approach a SDM process that includes three main elements: information exchange, deliberation, and making a treatment decision. 4) A wide range of decision-making approaches are ethically supportable including patient- or surrogate-directed and clinician-directed models. Clinicians should tailor the decision-making process based on the preferences of the patient or surrogate. 5) Clinicians should be trained in communication skills. 6) Research is needed to evaluate decision-making strategies. Conclusions Patient and surrogate preferences for decision-making roles regarding value

  16. ASN guide project. Safety policy and management in INBs (base nuclear installations)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    This guide presents the recommendations of the French Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) in the field of safety policy and management (PMS) for base nuclear installations (INBs). It gives an overview and comments of some prescriptions of the so-called INB order and PMS decision. These regulatory texts define a framework for provisions any INB operator must implement to establish his safety policy, to define and implement a system which allows the safety to be maintained, the improvement of his INB safety to be permanently looked for. The following issues are addressed: operator's safety policy, identification of elements important for safety, of activities pertaining to safety, and of associated requirements, safety management organization and system, management of activities pertaining to safety, documentation and archiving

  17. Nuclear emergency response planning based on participatory decision analytic approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinkko, K.

    2004-10-01

    This work was undertaken in order to develop methods and techniques for evaluating systematically and comprehensively protective action strategies in the case of a nuclear or radiation emergency. This was done in a way that the concerns and issues of all key players related to decisions on protective actions could be aggregated into decision- making transparently and in an equal manner. An approach called facilitated workshop, based on the theory of Decision Analysis, was tailored and tested in the planning of actions to be taken. The work builds on case studies in which it was assumed that a hypothetical accident in a nuclear power plant had led to a release of considerable amounts of radionuclides and therefore different types of protective actions should be considered. Altogether six workshops were organised in which all key players were represented, i.e., the authorities, expert organisations, industry and agricultural producers. The participants were those responsible for preparing advice or presenting matters for those responsible for the formal decision-making. Many preparatory meetings were held with various experts to prepare information for the workshops. It was considered essential that the set-up strictly follow the decision- making process to which the key players are accustomed. Key players or stakeholders comprise responsible administrators and organisations, politicians as well as representatives of the citizens affected and other persons who will and are likely to take part in decision-making in nuclear emergencies. The realistic nature and the disciplined process of a facilitated workshop and commitment to decision-making yielded up insight in many radiation protection issues. The objectives and attributes which are considered in a decision on protective actions were discussed in many occasions and were defined for different accident scenario to come. In the workshops intervention levels were derived according justification and optimisation

  18. Router Agent Technology for Policy-Based Network Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Edward T.; Sudhir, Gurusham; Chang, Hsin-Ping; James, Mark; Liu, Yih-Chiao J.; Chiang, Winston

    2011-01-01

    This innovation can be run as a standalone network application on any computer in a networked environment. This design can be configured to control one or more routers (one instance per router), and can also be configured to listen to a policy server over the network to receive new policies based on the policy- based network management technology. The Router Agent Technology transforms the received policies into suitable Access Control List syntax for the routers it is configured to control. It commits the newly generated access control lists to the routers and provides feedback regarding any errors that were faced. The innovation also automatically generates a time-stamped log file regarding all updates to the router it is configured to control. This technology, once installed on a local network computer and started, is autonomous because it has the capability to keep listening to new policies from the policy server, transforming those policies to router-compliant access lists, and committing those access lists to a specified interface on the specified router on the network with any error feedback regarding commitment process. The stand-alone application is named RouterAgent and is currently realized as a fully functional (version 1) implementation for the Windows operating system and for CISCO routers.

  19. Non-clinical influences on clinical decision-making: a major challenge to evidence-based practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajjaj, F M; Salek, M S; Basra, M K A; Finlay, A Y

    2010-05-01

    This article reviews an aspect of daily clinical practice which is of critical importance in virtually every clinical consultation, but which is seldom formally considered. Non-clinical influences on clinical decision-making profoundly affect medical decisions. These influences include patient-related factors such as socioeconomic status, quality of life and patient's expectations and wishes, physician-related factors such as personal characteristics and interaction with their professional community, and features of clinical practice such as private versus public practice as well as local management policies. This review brings together the different strands of knowledge concerning non-clinical influences on clinical decision-making. This aspect of decision-making may be the biggest obstacle to the reality of practising evidence-based medicine. It needs to be understood in order to develop clinical strategies that will facilitate the practice of evidence-based medicine.

  20. Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

    2009-03-01

    This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.

  1. Ontology based decision system for breast cancer diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trabelsi Ben Ameur, Soumaya; Cloppet, Florence; Wendling, Laurent; Sellami, Dorra

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we focus on analysis and diagnosis of breast masses inspired by expert concepts and rules. Accordingly, a Bag of Words is built based on the ontology of breast cancer diagnosis, accurately described in the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System. To fill the gap between low level knowledge and expert concepts, a semantic annotation is developed using a machine learning tool. Then, breast masses are classified into benign or malignant according to expert rules implicitly modeled with a set of classifiers (KNN, ANN, SVM and Decision Tree). This semantic context of analysis offers a frame where we can include external factors and other meta-knowledge such as patient risk factors as well as exploiting more than one modality. Based on MRI and DECEDM modalities, our developed system leads a recognition rate of 99.7% with Decision Tree where an improvement of 24.7 % is obtained owing to semantic analysis.

  2. Age replacement policy based on imperfect repair with random probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, J.H.; Qu, Jian; Zuo, Ming J.

    2016-01-01

    In most of literatures of age replacement policy, failures before planned replacement age can be either minimally repaired or perfectly repaired based on the types of failures, cost for repairs and so on. In this paper, we propose age replacement policy based on imperfect repair with random probability. The proposed policy incorporates the case that such intermittent failure can be either minimally repaired or perfectly repaired with random probabilities. The mathematical formulas of the expected cost rate per unit time are derived for both the infinite-horizon case and the one-replacement-cycle case. For each case, we show that the optimal replacement age exists and is finite. - Highlights: • We propose a new age replacement policy with random probability of perfect repair. • We develop the expected cost per unit time. • We discuss the optimal age for replacement minimizing the expected cost rate.

  3. Worship Discourse and White Race-based Policy Attitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, R. Khari; Kaiser, Angela; Jackson, James S.

    2014-01-01

    The current study relies upon the 2004 National Politics Study to examine the association between exposure to race-based messages within places of worship and White race-based policy attitudes. The present study challenges the notion that, for White Americans, religiosity inevitably leads to racial prejudice. Rather, we argue, as others have, that religion exists on a continuum that spans from reinforcing to challenging the status quo of social inequality. Our findings suggests that the extent to which Whites discuss race along with the potential need for public policy solutions to address racial inequality within worship spaces, worship attendance contributes to support for public policies aimed at reducing racial inequality. On the other hand, apolitical and non-structural racial discussions within worship settings do seemingly little to move many Whites to challenge dominant idealistic perceptions of race that eschews public policy interventions as solutions to racial inequality. PMID:25324579

  4. Clinical data warehousing for evidence based decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narra, Lekha; Sahama, Tony; Stapleton, Peta

    2015-01-01

    Large volumes of heterogeneous health data silos pose a big challenge when exploring for information to allow for evidence based decision making and ensuring quality outcomes. In this paper, we present a proof of concept for adopting data warehousing technology to aggregate and analyse disparate health data in order to understand the impact various lifestyle factors on obesity. We present a practical model for data warehousing with detailed explanation which can be adopted similarly for studying various other health issues.

  5. The NATO SOF Air Wing: A Basing Decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    11 Susan Hesse Owen & Mark S. Daskin , “Strategic Facility Location: A Review,” European Journal of Operational Research 111, (1998), 423. 6 the...Journal of Travel Research 45, (2006):167–174. Owen, Susan Hesse and Daskin , Mark S. “Strategic Facility Location: A Review.” European Journal of...WING: A BASING DECISION by James M. Cox December 2012 Thesis Advisor: William Fox Second Reader: Brian Greenshields THIS PAGE

  6. Knowledge based decision making: perspective on natural gas production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ydstie, B. Erik; Stuland, Kjetil M.

    2009-07-01

    Conclusions (drawn by the author): Decarbonization of energy sources - From coal to renewable. Natural Gas Abundantly available - Norway is no. 3 exporter. Natural gas important as - Hydrogen source for chemicals; - Electricity; - End consumer usage (heating etc). Large potential for application of model based decision making; - Where and when to install platforms and drill wells - How to operate platforms and pipeline systems; - How to operate and optimize chemical production; - Optimization of electricity generation systems. (author)

  7. Development of hybrid artificial intelligent based handover decision algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.M. Aibinu

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The possibility of seamless handover remains a mirage despite the plethora of existing handover algorithms. The underlying factor responsible for this has been traced to the Handover decision module in the Handover process. Hence, in this paper, the development of novel hybrid artificial intelligent handover decision algorithm has been developed. The developed model is made up of hybrid of Artificial Neural Network (ANN based prediction model and Fuzzy Logic. On accessing the network, the Received Signal Strength (RSS was acquired over a period of time to form a time series data. The data was then fed to the newly proposed k-step ahead ANN-based RSS prediction system for estimation of prediction model coefficients. The synaptic weights and adaptive coefficients of the trained ANN was then used to compute the k-step ahead ANN based RSS prediction model coefficients. The predicted RSS value was later codified as Fuzzy sets and in conjunction with other measured network parameters were fed into the Fuzzy logic controller in order to finalize handover decision process. The performance of the newly developed k-step ahead ANN based RSS prediction algorithm was evaluated using simulated and real data acquired from available mobile communication networks. Results obtained in both cases shows that the proposed algorithm is capable of predicting ahead the RSS value to about ±0.0002 dB. Also, the cascaded effect of the complete handover decision module was also evaluated. Results obtained show that the newly proposed hybrid approach was able to reduce ping-pong effect associated with other handover techniques.

  8. A Model of Decision-Making Based on Critical Thinking

    OpenAIRE

    Uluçınar, Ufuk; Aypay, Ahmet

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to examine the causal relationships between high school students' inquisitiveness, open-mindedness, causal thinking, and rational and intuitive decision-making dispositions through an assumed model based on research data. This study was designed in correlational model. Confirmatory factor analysis and path analysis, which are structural equation modelling applications, were used to explain these relationships. The participants were 404 students studying in five high s...

  9. An Intelligent Fleet Condition-Based Maintenance Decision Making Method Based on Multi-Agent

    OpenAIRE

    Bo Sun; Qiang Feng; Songjie Li

    2012-01-01

    According to the demand for condition-based maintenance online decision making among a mission oriented fleet, an intelligent maintenance decision making method based on Multi-agent and heuristic rules is proposed. The process of condition-based maintenance within an aircraft fleet (each containing one or more Line Replaceable Modules) based on multiple maintenance thresholds is analyzed. Then the process is abstracted into a Multi-Agent Model, a 2-layer model structure containing host negoti...

  10. Bringing the ecosystem services concept into marine management decisions, supporting ecosystems-based management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tweddle, J. F.; Byg, A.; Davies, I.; Gubbins, M.; Irvine, K.; Kafas, A.; Kenter, J.; MacDonald, A.; Murray, R. B. O.; Potts, T.; Slater, A. M.; Wright, K.; Scott, B. E.

    2016-12-01

    The marine environment is under increasing use, putting pressure on marine ecosystems and increasing competition for space. New activities (e.g. renewable energy developments), evolving marine policies (e.g. implementation of marine protected areas), and climate change may drive changes in biodiversity and resulting ecosystem services (ES) that society and business utilise from coastal and marine systems. A process is needed that integrates ecological assessment of changes with stakeholder perceptions and valuation of ES, whilst balancing ease of application with the ability to deal with complex social-economic-ecological issues. The project "Cooperative participatory assessment of the impact of renewable technology on ecosystem services: CORPORATES" involved natural and social scientists, law and policy experts, and marine managers, with the aim of promoting more integrated decision making using ES concepts in marine management. CORPORATES developed a process to bring ES concepts into stakeholders' awareness. The interactive process, involving 2 workshops, employs interludes of knowledge exchange by experts on ecological processes underpinning ES and on law and policy. These enable mapping of benefits linked to activities, participatory system modelling, and deliberation of policy impacts on different sectors. The workshops were attended by industry representatives, regulatory/advisory partners, and other stakeholders (NGOs, SMEs, recreationalists, local government). Mixed sector groups produced new insights into links between activities and ES, and highlighted cross-sector concerns. Here we present the aspects of the process that successfully built shared understanding between industry and stakeholders of inter-linkages and interactions between ES, benefits, activities, and economic and cultural values. These methods provide an ES-based decision-support model for exchanging societal-ecological knowledge and providing stakeholder interaction in marine planning

  11. Cognitive Adaptability: The Role of Metacognition and Feedback in Entrepreneural Decision Policies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Haynie, James M

    2005-01-01

    ..." cognitive strategies to promote cognitive adaptability, which I define as the ability to appropriately evolve individual decision-frameworks in concert with a changing and uncertain environment...

  12. Base stock policies with degraded service to larger orders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Du, Bisheng; Larsen, Christian

    We study an inventory system controlled by a base stock policy assuming a compound renewal demand process. We extend the base stock policy by incorporating rules for degrading the service of larger orders. Two specific rules are considered, denoted Postpone(q,t) and Split(q), respectively. The aim...... of using these rules is to achieve a given order fill rate of the regular orders (those of size less than or equal to the parameter q) having less inventory. We develop mathematical expressions for the performance measures order fill rate (of the regular orders) and average on-hand inventory level. Based...

  13. Why do we need to integrate farmer decision making and wildlife models for policy evaluation?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malawska, Anna Katarzyna; Topping, Christopher John; Nielsen, Helle Ørsted

    2014-01-01

    Environmental and agricultural policy instruments cause changes in land-use which in turn affect habitat quality and availability for a range of species. These policies often have wildlife or biodiversity goals, but in many cases they are ineffective. The low effectiveness and the emergence...... on human (farmers) actions, which the policies aim to affect, and wildlife responses to land-use and management changes imposed by farmers. Thus, in order to design effective agri-environmental policies, detailed ex-ante assessments of both of these aspects are necessary. Due to the restrictive assumptions...

  14. The image recognition based on neural network and Bayesian decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chugege

    2018-04-01

    The artificial neural network began in 1940, which is an important part of artificial intelligence. At present, it has become a hot topic in the fields of neuroscience, computer science, brain science, mathematics, and psychology. Thomas Bayes firstly reported the Bayesian theory in 1763. After the development in the twentieth century, it has been widespread in all areas of statistics. In recent years, due to the solution of the problem of high-dimensional integral calculation, Bayesian Statistics has been improved theoretically, which solved many problems that cannot be solved by classical statistics and is also applied to the interdisciplinary fields. In this paper, the related concepts and principles of the artificial neural network are introduced. It also summarizes the basic content and principle of Bayesian Statistics, and combines the artificial neural network technology and Bayesian decision theory and implement them in all aspects of image recognition, such as enhanced face detection method based on neural network and Bayesian decision, as well as the image classification based on the Bayesian decision. It can be seen that the combination of artificial intelligence and statistical algorithms has always been the hot research topic.

  15. Experiential Knowledge Complements an LCA-Based Decision Support Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heng Yi Teah

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available A shrimp farmer in Taiwan practices innovation through trial-and-error for better income and a better environment, but such farmer-based innovation sometimes fails because the biological mechanism is unclear. Systematic field experimentation and laboratory research are often too costly, and simulating ground conditions is often too challenging. To solve this dilemma, we propose a decision support framework that explicitly utilizes farmer experiential knowledge through a participatory approach to alternatively estimate prospective change in shrimp farming productivity, and to co-design options for improvement. Data obtained from the farmer enable us to quantitatively analyze the production cost and greenhouse gas (GHG emission with a life cycle assessment (LCA methodology. We used semi-quantitative graphical representations of indifference curves and mixing triangles to compare and show better options for the farmer. Our results empower the farmer to make decisions more systematically and reliably based on the frequency of heterotrophic bacteria application and the revision of feed input. We argue that experiential knowledge may be less accurate due to its dependence on varying levels of farmer experience, but this knowledge is a reasonable alternative for immediate decision-making. More importantly, our developed framework advances the scope of LCA application to support practically important yet scientifically uncertain cases.

  16. Decision and cost analysis of empirical antibiotic therapy of acute sinusitis in the era of increasing antimicrobial resistance: do we have an additional tool for antibiotic policy decisions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babela, Robert; Jarcuska, Pavol; Uraz, Vladimir; Krčméry, Vladimír; Jadud, Branislav; Stevlik, Jan; Gould, Ian M

    2017-11-01

    No previous analyses have attempted to determine optimal therapy for upper respiratory tract infections on the basis of cost-minimization models and the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance among respiratory pathogens in Slovakia. This investigation compares macrolides and cephalosporines for empirical therapy and look at this new tool from the aspect of potential antibiotic policy decision-making process. We employed a decision tree model to determine the threshold level of macrolides and cephalosporines resistance among community respiratory pathogens that would make cephalosporines or macrolides cost-minimising. To obtain information on clinical outcomes and cost of URTIs, a systematic review of the literature was performed. The cost-minimization model of upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) treatment was derived from the review of literature and published models. We found that the mean cost of empirical treatment with macrolides for an URTIs was €93.27 when the percentage of resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae in the community was 0%; at 5%, the mean cost was €96.45; at 10%, €99.63; at 20%, €105.99, and at 30%, €112.36. Our model demonstrated that when the percentage of macrolide resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae exceeds 13.8%, use of empirical cephalosporines rather than macrolides minimizes the treatment cost of URTIs. Empirical macrolide therapy is less expensive than cephalosporines therapy for URTIs unless macrolide resistance exceeds 13.8% in the community. Results have important antibiotic policy implications, since presented model can be use as an additional decision-making tool for new guidelines and reimbursement processes by local authorities in the era of continual increase in antibiotic resistance.

  17. Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Stuart G.

    2013-05-01

    Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

  18. Reliability-Based Decision Fusion in Multimodal Biometric Verification Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kryszczuk Krzysztof

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a methodology of reliability estimation in the multimodal biometric verification scenario. Reliability estimation has shown to be an efficient and accurate way of predicting and correcting erroneous classification decisions in both unimodal (speech, face, online signature and multimodal (speech and face systems. While the initial research results indicate the high potential of the proposed methodology, the performance of the reliability estimation in a multimodal setting has not been sufficiently studied or evaluated. In this paper, we demonstrate the advantages of using the unimodal reliability information in order to perform an efficient biometric fusion of two modalities. We further show the presented method to be superior to state-of-the-art multimodal decision-level fusion schemes. The experimental evaluation presented in this paper is based on the popular benchmarking bimodal BANCA database.

  19. School Improvement Policy--Site-Based Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Kenneth Tanner

    1998-03-01

    Full Text Available Have administrative functions of principals changed in schools practicing site-based management (SBM with shared governance? To deal with this issue we employed the Delphi technique and a panel of 24 experts from 14 states. The experts, which included educational specialists, researchers, writers, and elementary school principals, agreed that the implementation of SBM dramatically influences the roles of the principal in management/administration and leadership. Data revealed that the elementary principal's leadership role requires specialized skills to support shared governance, making it necessary to form professional development programs that adapt to innovations evolving from the implementation of SBM.

  20. Science-policy interface in transformative adaptive flood risk management - decision-making in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thaler, Thomas; Attems, Marie-Sophie; Rauter, Magdalena; Fuchs, Sven

    2016-04-01

    Facing the challenges of climate change, this paper aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this paper focussed on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. This paper used the Formative Scenario Analysis (FSA) as a method to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a system and its potential future development, based on qualitatively assessed impact factors and rated quantitative relations between these factors, such as impact and consistency analysis. The purpose of this approach was to develop scenarios, where participations develop their own strategies how to implement a transformative adaptation strategy in flood risk management. In particular, the interaction between researcher, the public and policy makers was analysed. Challenges and limitations were assessed, such as benefits on costs of adaptation measures, for the implementation of visions to

  1. How do researchers influence decision-makers? Case studies of Mexican policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trostle, J; Bronfman, M; Langer, A

    1999-06-01

    Though the problems translating or applying research in policy-making are legion, solutions are rare. As developing countries increase their capacities to develop effective local solutions to their health problems, they confront the research/policy dilemma. Yet few descriptive studies of research-policy links can be found from developing countries, and the relevance of European and North American models and data is questionable. We report the results of a descriptive study from Mexico of the relationship between health research and policy in four vertical programmes (AIDS, cholera, family planning, immunization). We interviewed 67 researchers and policy-makers from different institutions and levels of responsibility. We analyzed interviewee responses looking for factors that promoted or impeded exchanges between researchers and policy-makers. These were, in turn, divided into emphases on content, actors, process, and context. Many of the promoting factors resembled findings from studies in industrialized countries. Some important differences across the four programmes, which also distinguish them from industrialized country programmes, included extent of reliance on formal communication channels, role of the mass media in building social consensus or creating discord, levels of social consensus, role of foreign donors, and extent of support for biomedical versus social research. We recommend various ways to increase the impact of research on health policy-making in Mexico. Some of the largest challenges include the fact that researchers are but one of many interest groups, and research but one input among many equally legitimate elements to be considered by policy-makers. Another important challenge in Mexico is the relatively small role played by the public in policy-making. Further democratic changes in Mexico may be the most important incentive to increase the use of research in policy-making.

  2. The Space Station decision - Politics, bureaucracy, and the making of public policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccurdy, Howard E.

    1991-01-01

    The lack of consensus that dominates the conception of major scientific and technological programs is demonstrated via a comparison of the decisions to build the Space Station and the Space Transportation System, and the decision to go to the moon. It is argued that the way political reality conditions administrative behavior in NASA is shown by the decision to promote international cooperation prior to program approval. It is concluded that so long as NASA remains a government agency, its officials will struggle to learn how to balance professional accountability with political reality.

  3. Design Decisions in Developing Learning Trajectories-Based Assessments in Mathematics: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penuel, William R.; Confrey, Jere; Maloney, Alan; Rupp, André A.

    2014-01-01

    This article analyzes the design decisions of a team developing diagnostic assessments for a learning trajectory focused on rational number reasoning. The analysis focuses on the design rationale for key decisions about how to develop the cognitive assessments and related validity arguments within a fluid state and national policy context. The…

  4. Integrating Indigenous Traditional, Local and Scientific Knowledge for Improved Management, Policy and Decision-Making in Reindeer Husbandry in the Russian Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, Nancy G.; Yurchak, Boris; Turi, Johan Mathis; Mathiesen, Svein D.; Aissi-Wespi, Rita L.

    2004-01-01

    As scientists and policy-makers from both indigenous and non-indigenous communities begin to build closer partnerships to address common sustainability issues such as the health impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities, it becomes increasingly important to create shared information management systems which integrate all relevant factors for optimal information sharing and decision-making. This paper describes a new GIs-based system being designed to bring local and indigenous traditional knowledge together with scientific data and information, remote sensing, and information technologies to address health-related environment, weather, climate, pollution and land use change issues for improved decision/policy-making for reindeer husbandry. The system is building an easily-accessible archive of relevant current and historical, traditional, local and remotely-sensed and other data and observations for shared analysis, measuring, and monitoring parameters of interest. Protection of indigenous culturally sensitive information will be respected through appropriate data protocols. A mechanism which enables easy information sharing among all participants, which is real time and geo-referenced and which allows interconnectivity with remote sites is also being designed into the system for maximum communication among partners. A preliminary version of our system will be described for a Russian reindeer test site, which will include a combination of indigenous knowledge about local conditions and issues, remote sensing and ground-based data on such parameters as the vegetation state and distribution, snow cover, temperature, ice condition, and infrastructure.

  5. Hidden policy ciphertext-policy attribute-based encryption with keyword search against keyword guessing attack

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shuo; QIU; Jiqiang; LIU; Yanfeng; SHI; Rui; ZHANG

    2017-01-01

    Attribute-based encryption with keyword search(ABKS) enables data owners to grant their search capabilities to other users by enforcing an access control policy over the outsourced encrypted data. However,existing ABKS schemes cannot guarantee the privacy of the access structures, which may contain some sensitive private information. Furthermore, resulting from the exposure of the access structures, ABKS schemes are susceptible to an off-line keyword guessing attack if the keyword space has a polynomial size. To solve these problems, we propose a novel primitive named hidden policy ciphertext-policy attribute-based encryption with keyword search(HP-CPABKS). With our primitive, the data user is unable to search on encrypted data and learn any information about the access structure if his/her attribute credentials cannot satisfy the access control policy specified by the data owner. We present a rigorous selective security analysis of the proposed HP-CPABKS scheme, which simultaneously keeps the indistinguishability of the keywords and the access structures. Finally,the performance evaluation verifies that our proposed scheme is efficient and practical.

  6. Biometric image enhancement using decision rule based image fusion techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagayee, G. Mary Amirtha; Arumugam, S.

    2010-02-01

    Introducing biometrics into information systems may result in considerable benefits. Most of the researchers confirmed that the finger print is widely used than the iris or face and more over it is the primary choice for most privacy concerned applications. For finger prints applications, choosing proper sensor is at risk. The proposed work deals about, how the image quality can be improved by introducing image fusion technique at sensor levels. The results of the images after introducing the decision rule based image fusion technique are evaluated and analyzed with its entropy levels and root mean square error.

  7. Knowledge-based dialogue in Intelligent Decision Support Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollnagel, E.

    1987-01-01

    The overall goal for the design of Intelligent Decision Support Systems (IDSS) is to enhance understanding of the process under all operating conditions. For an IDSS to be effective, it must: select or generate the right information; produce reliable and consistent information; allow flexible and effective operator interaction; relate information presentation to current plant status and problems; and make the presentation at the right time. Several ongoing R and D programs try to design and build IDSSs. A particular example is the ESPRIT project Graphics and Knowledge Based Diaglogue for Dynamic Systems (GRADIENT). This project, the problems it addresses, and its uses, are discussed here

  8. Soft computing based on hierarchical evaluation approach and criteria interdependencies for energy decision-making problems: A case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gitinavard, Hossein; Mousavi, S. Meysam; Vahdani, Behnam

    2017-01-01

    In numerous real-world energy decision problems, decision makers often encounter complex environments, in which existent imprecise data and uncertain information lead us to make an appropriate decision. In this paper, a new soft computing group decision-making approach is introduced based on novel compromise ranking method and interval-valued hesitant fuzzy sets (IVHFSs) for energy decision-making problems under multiple criteria. In the proposed approach, the assessment information is provided by energy experts or decision makers based on interval-valued hesitant fuzzy elements under incomplete criteria weights. In this respect, a new ranking index is presented respecting to interval-valued hesitant fuzzy Hamming distance measure to prioritize energy candidates, and criteria weights are computed based on an extended maximizing deviation method by considering the preferences experts' judgments about the relative importance of each criterion. Also, a decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method is extended under an IVHF-environment to compute the interdependencies between and within the selected criteria in the hierarchical structure. Accordingly, to demonstrate the applicability of the presented approach a case study and a practical example are provided regarding to hierarchical structure and criteria interdependencies relations for renewable energy and energy policy selection problems. Hence, the obtained computational results are compared with a fuzzy decision-making method from the recent literature based on some comparison parameters to show the advantages and constraints of the proposed approach. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is prepared to indicate effects of different criteria weights on ranking results to present the robustness or sensitiveness of the proposed soft computing approach versus the relative importance of criteria. - Highlights: • Introducing a novel interval-valued hesitant fuzzy compromise ranking method. • Presenting

  9. Policies for Promotion of Electric Vehicles and Factors Influencing Consumers’ Purchasing Decisions of Low Emission Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matjaz Knez

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Recently different studies of green transport have become interesting for policy makers,car manufacturers, customers and energy suppliers. Many stakeholders from the publicand private sectors are investing a lot of effort to identify consumer behaviour for futureimprovements in development of green products and effective strategies, which couldaccelerate the transition to sustainable future. This paper presents the effects of electricvehicle promotional policies and customer preferences about alternative fuel vehicles.This study has shown that the electric vehicle promotional policies adopted in Sloveniahave been unsuccessful, as the share of first-time registered electric vehicles in 2013 wasbelow 1%. For different segments of people whose opinions about low emission vehiclesdiffer, different measures must be adopted. When designing promotional policies focusmust be on the most relevant factors such as the total vehicle price and fuel economy.

  10. Therapy Decision Support Based on Recommender System Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gräßer, Felix; Beckert, Stefanie; Küster, Denise; Schmitt, Jochen; Abraham, Susanne; Malberg, Hagen; Zaunseder, Sebastian

    2017-01-01

    We present a system for data-driven therapy decision support based on techniques from the field of recommender systems. Two methods for therapy recommendation, namely, Collaborative Recommender and Demographic-based Recommender , are proposed. Both algorithms aim to predict the individual response to different therapy options using diverse patient data and recommend the therapy which is assumed to provide the best outcome for a specific patient and time, that is, consultation. The proposed methods are evaluated using a clinical database incorporating patients suffering from the autoimmune skin disease psoriasis. The Collaborative Recommender proves to generate both better outcome predictions and recommendation quality. However, due to sparsity in the data, this approach cannot provide recommendations for the entire database. In contrast, the Demographic-based Recommender performs worse on average but covers more consultations. Consequently, both methods profit from a combination into an overall recommender system.

  11. Therapy Decision Support Based on Recommender System Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Gräßer

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a system for data-driven therapy decision support based on techniques from the field of recommender systems. Two methods for therapy recommendation, namely, Collaborative Recommender and Demographic-based Recommender, are proposed. Both algorithms aim to predict the individual response to different therapy options using diverse patient data and recommend the therapy which is assumed to provide the best outcome for a specific patient and time, that is, consultation. The proposed methods are evaluated using a clinical database incorporating patients suffering from the autoimmune skin disease psoriasis. The Collaborative Recommender proves to generate both better outcome predictions and recommendation quality. However, due to sparsity in the data, this approach cannot provide recommendations for the entire database. In contrast, the Demographic-based Recommender performs worse on average but covers more consultations. Consequently, both methods profit from a combination into an overall recommender system.

  12. Use of the innovation-decision process teaching strategy to promote evidence-based practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Nola A; Brown, Janet M

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe the innovation-decision process teaching strategy (I-DPTS) based on the model of diffusion of innovations [Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of innovations (5th ed.). New York: Free Press]. A goal of baccalaureate nursing education is to develop competencies required for evidence-based practice. Such practice merges clinician expertise, patient preferences, and critical evaluation of the literature to improve patient outcomes and reduce health care costs [Melnyk, B. M. (2005). A primer on evidence-based practice. Paper presented at the Purdue School of Nursing Seventh Annual Helen R. Johnson Leadership Conference, West Lafayette, IN]. Several strategies to promote evidence-based practice have appeared in the literature. However, when they are examined in light of the innovation-decision process (Rogers, 2003), they do not address all the essential steps for adoption to occur. The I-DPTS allows students to achieve competencies necessary to overcome barriers associated with implementing best practices. This strategy was successfully implemented in a senior-level introductory nursing research class. Community representatives identified practice issues that could be addressed by student groups. After conducting a search of the literature, students analyzed the evidence, determined best practice based on the evidence, and developed a policy for implementation in clinical settings. At course end, representatives were invited to attend oral and poster presentations. Use of the I-DPTS better prepares students to implement best practice as they embark on their professional careers.

  13. Designing a climate change policy for the international maritime transport sector: Market-based measures and technological options for global and regional policy actions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miola, A.; Marra, M.; Ciuffo, B.

    2011-01-01

    The international maritime transport sector has a significant abatement potential and some technical improvements that reduce GHG emissions would already be profitable without any policy in place. This paper analyses in-depth the limits and opportunities of policy options currently under consideration at the international level to stimulate the sector to reduce its GHG emissions. In particular, in order for the maritime transport sector to become more environmentally friendly, the flexible nature of international market-based measures and the European Union Emission Trading Scheme provide a definite window of opportunity without placing unnecessary high burden on the sector. However, the development of a regional policy, such as at European level, for the international maritime transport sector faces several obstacles: allocation of emissions, carbon leakage, permit allocation, treatment of the great variety in ship type, size and usage, and transaction cost. Global market-based policies could overcome most of these challenges. This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the policy instruments currently under discussion to reduce the sector's burden on the environment, and focuses on economic theory, legal principles, technological options, and the political framework that together make up the basis of decision-making regarding the international maritime transport sector's climate change policies. - Highlights: → Technologies for a more environmental friendly maritime transport sector and their cost-effectiveness. → How to combine ambitious CO 2 reduction goals with a sector-wide market-based policy. → Permits should be auctioned frequently and small emitters have to be excluded. → Inclusion of shipping in the EU ETS causes carbon leakage, so the policy should aim at expansion.

  14. A RWMAC commentary on the Science Policy Research Unit Report: UK Nuclear Decommissioning Policy: time for decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-04-01

    The Radioactive Waste Management Advisory Committee (RWMAC) is an independent body which advises the Secretaries of State for the Environment, Scotland and Wales, on civil radioactive waste management issues. Chapter 4 of the RWMAC's Twelfth Annual Report discussed nuclear power plant decommissioning strategy. One of the RWMAC's conclusions was that the concept of financial provisioning for power station decommissioning liabilities, which might be passed on to society several generations into the future, deserved further study. A specification for such a study was duly written (Annex 2) and, following consideration of tendered responses, the Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) at Sussex University, was contracted to carry out the work. The SPRU report stands as a SPRU analysis of the subject. This separate short RWMAC report, which is being released at the same time as the SPRU report, presents the RWMAC's own commentary on the SPRU study. The RWMAC has identified five main issues which should be addressed when deciding on a nuclear plant decommissioning strategy. These are: the technical approach to decommissioning, the basis of financial provisions, treatment of risk, segregation of management of funds, and the need for a wider environmental view. (author)

  15. A RWMAC commentary on the Science Policy Research Unit report: UK nuclear decommissioning policy: time for decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-04-01

    Chapter 4 of the RWMAC's Twelfth Annual Report discussed nuclear power plant decommissioning strategy. One of the RWMAC's conclusions was that the concept of financial provisioning for power station decommissioning liabilities, which might be passed on to society several generations into the future, deserved further study. A specification for such a study was duly written (Annex 2) and, following consideration of tendered responses, the Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) at Sussex University, was contracted to carry out the work. The SPRU report stands as a SPRU analysis of the subject. This separate short RWMAC report, which is being released at the same time as the SPRU report, presents the RWMAC's own commentary on the SPRU study. The RWMAC has identified five main issues which should be addressed when deciding on a nuclear plant decommissioning strategy. These are: the technical approach to decommissioning, the basis of financial provisions, treatment of risk, segregation of management of funds, and the need for a wider environmental view. These issues are addressed in this RWMAC report. (author)

  16. Agent-based Decision Support System for the Third Generation Distributed Dynamic Decision-making (DDD-III) Simulator

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Meirina, Candra; Ruan, Sui; Yu, Feili; Zhu, Liang; Pattipati, Krishna R; Kleinman, David L

    2004-01-01

    ...) based on the third-generation distributed dynamic decision-making (DDD-III) simulator and contingency theory to increase the organizational cognitive capacity and to facilitate the processes of adaptation...

  17. The challenges of changing national malaria drug policy to artemisinin-based combinations in Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otieno Dorothy N

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Backgound Sulphadoxine/sulphalene-pyrimethamine (SP was adopted in Kenya as first line therapeutic for uncomplicated malaria in 1998. By the second half of 2003, there was convincing evidence that SP was failing and had to be replaced. Despite several descriptive investigations of policy change and implementation when countries moved from chloroquine to SP, the different constraints of moving to artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT in Africa are less well documented. Methods A narrative description of the process of anti-malarial drug policy change, financing and implementation in Kenya is assembled from discussions with stakeholders, reports, newspaper articles, minutes of meetings and email correspondence between actors in the policy change process. The narrative has been structured to capture the timing of events, the difficulties and hurdles faced and the resolutions reached to the final implementation of a new treatment policy. Results Following a recognition that SP was failing there was a rapid technical appraisal of available data and replacement options resulting in a decision to adopt artemether-lumefantrine (AL as the recommended first-line therapy in Kenya, announced in April 2004. Funding requirements were approved by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM and over 60 million US$ were agreed in principle in July 2004 to procure AL and implement the policy change. AL arrived in Kenya in May 2006, distribution to health facilities began in July 2006 coincidental with cascade in-service training in the revised national guidelines. Both training and drug distribution were almost complete by the end of 2006. The article examines why it took over 32 months from announcing a drug policy change to completing early implementation. Reasons included: lack of clarity on sustainable financing of an expensive therapeutic for a common disease, a delay in release of funding, a lack of comparative efficacy data

  18. Combined Influence of Selective Focus and Decision Involvement on Attitude-Decision Consistency in a Memory-based Decision Context

    OpenAIRE

    A. VAN KERCKHOVE; I. VERMEIR; M. GEUENS

    2009-01-01

    Marketers often use salient stimuli to draw consumers’ attention to a specific brand in the hope that a selective focus on the own brand increases the sales of this brand. However, previous studies are inconsistent concerning the impact that selectively focusing on a specific brand has on final brand choice. To offer an explanation for these inconsistent results, this paper introduces decision involvement as a moderator of the relation between selective focus and attitude-decision consistency...

  19. Artificial intelligence based decision support for trumpeter swan management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sojda, Richard S.

    2002-01-01

    The number of trumpeter swans (Cygnus buccinator) breeding in the Tri-State area where Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming come together has declined to just a few hundred pairs. However, these birds are part of the Rocky Mountain Population which additionally has over 3,500 birds breeding in Alberta, British Columbia, Northwest Territories, and Yukon Territory. To a large degree, these birds seem to have abandoned traditional migratory pathways in the flyway. Waterfowl managers have been interested in decision support tools that would help them explore simulated management scenarios in their quest towards reaching population recovery and the reestablishment of traditional migratory pathways. I have developed a decision support system to assist biologists with such management, especially related to wetland ecology. Decision support systems use a combination of models, analytical techniques, and information retrieval to help develop and evaluate appropriate alternatives. Swan management is a domain that is ecologically complex, and this complexity is compounded by spatial and temporal issues. As such, swan management is an inherently distributed problem. Therefore, the ecological context for modeling swan movements in response to management actions was built as a multiagent system of interacting intelligent agents that implements a queuing model representing swan migration. These agents accessed ecological knowledge about swans, their habitats, and flyway management principles from three independent expert systems. The agents were autonomous, had some sensory capability, and could respond to changing conditions. A key problem when developing ecological decision support systems is empirically determining that the recommendations provided are valid. Because Rocky Mountain trumpeter swans have been surveyed for a long period of time, I was able to compare simulated distributions provided by the system with actual field observations across 20 areas for the period 1988

  20. A dual justification for science-based policy-making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, David Budtz

    2014-01-01

    Science-based policy-making has grown ever more important in recent years, in parallel with the dramatic increase in the complexity and uncertainty of the ways in which science and technology interact with society and economy at the national, regional and global level. Installing a proper framewo...

  1. Evidence-based ICT Policy for Development and Innovation | CRDI ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Evidence-based ICT Policy for Development and Innovation. The cost of access to information and communication technologies (ITCs) in Africa remains the major impediment to the participation of Africans in the networked society. While Africa is the region with the fastest growing number of mobile phone subscribers in the ...

  2. Memory-Based Decision-Making with Heuristics: Evidence for a Controlled Activation of Memory Representations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khader, Patrick H.; Pachur, Thorsten; Meier, Stefanie; Bien, Siegfried; Jost, Kerstin; Rosler, Frank

    2011-01-01

    Many of our daily decisions are memory based, that is, the attribute information about the decision alternatives has to be recalled. Behavioral studies suggest that for such decisions we often use simple strategies (heuristics) that rely on controlled and limited information search. It is assumed that these heuristics simplify decision-making by…

  3. Jezebel at the welfare office: How racialized stereotypes of poor women's reproductive decisions and relationships shape policy implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masters, N Tatiana; Lindhorst, Taryn P; Meyers, Marcia K

    2014-01-01

    Current welfare scholarship lacks an analysis of how caseworkers discuss sexuality-related issues with clients. Seventy-two of 232 transcribed welfare interviews in three states included discussion of reproductive decisions and relationships. Overall, caseworkers' language reflected negative myths regarding African American women's sexuality and motherhood. By virtue of their status as welfare recipients, regardless of their individual races, clients were placed into racialized myths through workers' talk. This analysis demonstrates that though not present in every welfare interview and often veiled in bureaucratic language, negative ideas about poor women's sexuality persist in welfare policy and are deeply embedded in its day-to-day implementation.

  4. A tool for rapid assessment of erosion risk to support decision-making and policy development at the Ngenge watershed in Uganda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mutekanga, F.P.; Visser, S.M.; Stroosnijder, L.

    2010-01-01

    This study tests a rapid, user-friendly method for assessing changes in erosion risk, which yields information to aid policy development and decision-making for sustainable natural resources management. There is currently a lack of timely, up-to-date and current information to support policy

  5. Decision Making Based On Management Information System and Decision Support System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şükrü Ada

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Information hasbecome an essentialresource for managing modern organizations. This is so because today’sbusiness environment is volatile, dynamic, turbulent and necessitates the burgeoning demand for accurate, relevant, complete,timely and economical information needed to drive the decision-making process in order to accentuate organizational abilities to manage opportunities and threat. MIS work on online mode with an average processing speed. Generally, it is used by low level management. Decision support system are powerful tool that assist corporate executives, administrators and other senior officials in making decision regarding the problem. Management Information Systems is a useful tool that provided organized and summarized information in a proper time to decision makers and enable making accurate decision for managers in organizations. This paper will discuss the concept, characteristics, types of MIS, the MIS model, and in particular it will highlight the impact and role of MIS on decision making.

  6. [Boundaries of the autonomy of local health administration: innovation, creativity and evidence-based decision-making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Silvio Fernandes da; Souza, Nathan Mendes; Barreto, Jorge Otávio Maia

    2014-11-01

    The scope of this article was to identify the boundaries of the autonomy of local administration in the context of the federal pact in the Brazilian Unified Health System and the importance and potential for promoting innovation, creativity and evidence-based decision-making by local governments. The methodology used was to ask questions that favored dialogue with the specific literature to identify the influence of centrally-formulated policies in spaces of local autonomy and then to identify strategies to foster innovation, creativity and the systematic use of evidence-based research in health policy implementation. A gradual reduction in municipal decision-making autonomy was detected due to increased financial commitment of the municipalities resulting from responsibilities assumed, albeit with the possibility of reverting this trend in the more recent context. Some determinants and challenges for the dissemination of innovative practices were analyzed and some relevant national and international experiences in this respect were presented. The conclusion drawn is that it is possible to make local decision-making more effective provided that initiatives are consolidated to promote this culture and the formulation and implementation of evidence-based health policies.

  7. Probabilistic Decision Based Block Partitioning for Future Video Coding

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Zhao

    2017-11-29

    In the latest Joint Video Exploration Team development, the quadtree plus binary tree (QTBT) block partitioning structure has been proposed for future video coding. Compared to the traditional quadtree structure of High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC) standard, QTBT provides more flexible patterns for splitting the blocks, which results in dramatically increased combinations of block partitions and high computational complexity. In view of this, a confidence interval based early termination (CIET) scheme is proposed for QTBT to identify the unnecessary partition modes in the sense of rate-distortion (RD) optimization. In particular, a RD model is established to predict the RD cost of each partition pattern without the full encoding process. Subsequently, the mode decision problem is casted into a probabilistic framework to select the final partition based on the confidence interval decision strategy. Experimental results show that the proposed CIET algorithm can speed up QTBT block partitioning structure by reducing 54.7% encoding time with only 1.12% increase in terms of bit rate. Moreover, the proposed scheme performs consistently well for the high resolution sequences, of which the video coding efficiency is crucial in real applications.

  8. Maintenance Decision Based on Data Fusion of Aero Engines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huawei Wang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Maintenance has gained a great importance as a support function for ensuring aero engine reliability and availability. Cost-effectiveness and risk control are two basic criteria for accurate maintenance. Given that aero engines have much condition monitoring data, this paper presents a new condition-based maintenance decision system that employs data fusion for improving accuracy of reliability evaluation. Bayesian linear model has been applied, so that the performance degradation evaluation of aero engines could be realized. A reliability evaluation model has been presented based on gamma process, which achieves the accurate evaluation by information fusion. In reliability evaluation model, the shape parameter is estimated by the performance degradation evaluation result, and the scale parameter is estimated by failure, inspection, and repair information. What is more, with such reliability evaluation as input variables and by using particle swarm optimization (PSO, a stochastic optimization of maintenance decision for aircraft engines has been presented, in which the effectiveness and the accuracy are demonstrated by a numerical example.

  9. Inter-generational Decision Making for Radioactive Waste Disposal, Policy and Science: Regulatory Protection Forever?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Regnier, E.P.; Wallo, A.

    2006-01-01

    Assumptions about this generation's duty to future generations underlie decisions on regulatory requirements for disposal of radioactive waste. Regulatory provisions related to time of compliance, dose criteria, and institutional controls, for example, continue to be topics of discussion as regulations are revised or compared. Subjective and difficult ethical issues are either explicit or implicit in these discussions. The information and criteria used must be relevant and help make good decisions that, ideally, increase the overall welfare of future generations. To what extent can or should science usefully inform such decision-making? Both the National Academies of Science and the National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) have reported on this topic, albeit from different viewpoints. This paper explains and expands upon the rationale used for setting compliance time periods such as the Department of Energy's requirement for a 1,000 year time of compliance with dose limits for low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities. It evaluates radioactive waste disposal against principles of equity recommended by NAPA. Radioactive waste disposal standards require evaluation of impacts much farther into the future than has been common for other endeavors with very long term effects. While performance assessment analyses provide much useful information, their inherent uncertainties over long time periods preclude the projection of reality. Thus, the usefulness of extremely long projections in supporting good decisions that promote the welfare of future generations is limited. Such decisions are fundamentally a question of resource allocation, equity, and fairness. (authors)

  10. Paper Fish and Policy Conflict: Catch Shares and Ecosystem-Based Management in Maine's Groundfishery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer F. Brewer

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration professes support for ecosystem-based fisheries management, as mandated by Congress in the Fishery Conservation and Management Act, and as endorsed by the Obama Administration's national ocean policy. Nonetheless, driving agency policies, including catch shares and fishing quotas, focus principally on individual species, diverting attention from ecosystem considerations such as habitat, migratory patterns, trophic relationships, fishing gear, and firm-level decision making. Environmental non-governmental organization (ENGO agendas manifest similar inconsistencies. A case study of Maine's groundfishery demonstrates implications of this policy conflict at the local level. There, multigenerational fishing villages have historically pursued diversified and adaptive livelihood strategies, supported by local ecological knowledge. This tradition is increasingly eroded by regulatory constraints, including catch shares. Field observation, interviews, survey data, and archival review reveal that industry-supported, ecosystem-focused proposals have been rejected by the New England Fishery Management Council, despite the apparent failure of single-species approaches to sustain fish populations, fished ecosystems, and fishing-dependent communities. The creation of groundfishery catch share sectors is likely to perpetuate industry consolidation and political entrenchment under more mobile capital, following precedent set by days-at-sea, and making area protections and gear restrictions less likely. Pending marine spatial planning efforts could enhance social-ecological resilience by creating new opportunities for transdisciplinary decision support, and broader public participation and accountability.

  11. PROSPECTS OF THE REGIONAL INTEGRATION POLICY BASED ON CLUSTER FORMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Tsepilova

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to develop the theoretical foundations of regional integration policy and to determine its prospects on the basis of cluster formation. The authors use such research methods as systematization, comparative and complex analysis, synthesis, statistical method. Within the framework of the research, the concept of regional integration policy is specified, and its integration core – cluster – is allocated. The authors work out an algorithm of regional clustering, which will ensure the growth of economy and tax income. Measures have been proposed to optimize the organizational mechanism of interaction between the participants of the territorial cluster and the authorities that allow to ensure the effective functioning of clusters, including taxation clusters. Based on the results of studying the existing methods for assessing the effectiveness of cluster policy, the authors propose their own approach to evaluating the consequences of implementing the regional integration policy, according to which the list of quantitative and qualitative indicators is defined. The present article systematizes the experience and results of the cluster policy of certain European countries, that made it possible to determine the prospects and synergetic effect from the development of clusters as an integration foundation of regional policy in the Russian Federation. The authors carry out the analysis of activity of cluster formations using the example of the Rostov region – a leader in the formation of conditions for the cluster policy development in the Southern Federal District. 11 clusters and cluster initiatives are developing in this region. As a result, the authors propose measures for support of the already existing clusters and creation of the new ones.

  12. An extended EPQ-based problem with a discontinuous delivery policy, scrap rate, and random breakdown.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Singa Wang; Lin, Hong-Dar; Song, Ming-Syuan; Chen, Hsin-Mei; Chiu, Yuan-Shyi P

    2015-01-01

    In real supply chain environments, the discontinuous multidelivery policy is often used when finished products need to be transported to retailers or customers outside the production units. To address this real-life production-shipment situation, this study extends recent work using an economic production quantity- (EPQ-) based inventory model with a continuous inventory issuing policy, defective items, and machine breakdown by incorporating a multiple delivery policy into the model to replace the continuous policy and investigates the effect on the optimal run time decision for this specific EPQ model. Next, we further expand the scope of the problem to combine the retailer's stock holding cost into our study. This enhanced EPQ-based model can be used to reflect the situation found in contemporary manufacturing firms in which finished products are delivered to the producer's own retail stores and stocked there for sale. A second model is developed and studied. With the help of mathematical modeling and optimization techniques, the optimal run times that minimize the expected total system costs comprising costs incurred in production units, transportation, and retail stores are derived, for both models. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the applicability of our research results.

  13. An Extended EPQ-Based Problem with a Discontinuous Delivery Policy, Scrap Rate, and Random Breakdown

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singa Wang Chiu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In real supply chain environments, the discontinuous multidelivery policy is often used when finished products need to be transported to retailers or customers outside the production units. To address this real-life production-shipment situation, this study extends recent work using an economic production quantity- (EPQ- based inventory model with a continuous inventory issuing policy, defective items, and machine breakdown by incorporating a multiple delivery policy into the model to replace the continuous policy and investigates the effect on the optimal run time decision for this specific EPQ model. Next, we further expand the scope of the problem to combine the retailer’s stock holding cost into our study. This enhanced EPQ-based model can be used to reflect the situation found in contemporary manufacturing firms in which finished products are delivered to the producer’s own retail stores and stocked there for sale. A second model is developed and studied. With the help of mathematical modeling and optimization techniques, the optimal run times that minimize the expected total system costs comprising costs incurred in production units, transportation, and retail stores are derived, for both models. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the applicability of our research results.

  14. INVESTIGATION OF FISCAL AND BUDGETARY POLICIES BASED ON ECONOMIC THEORIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EMILIA CAMPEANU

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Empirical analysis of fiscal and budgetary policies cannot be achieved without first knowing how they are viewed in the economic theories. This approach is important to indicate the position and implications of fiscal and budgetary policy tools in the economic theory considering their major differences. Therefore, the paper aims is to investigate the fiscal and budgetary policies based on economic theories such as neoclassical, Keynesian and neo-Keynesian theory in order to indicate their divergent points. Once known these approaches at the economic theory level is easier to establish the appropriate measures taking into consideration the framing of a country economy in a certain pattern. This work was supported from the European Social Fund through Sectoral Operational Programme Human Resources Development 2007-2013, project number POSDRU/89/1.5/S/59184 „Performance and excellence in postdoctoral research in Romanian economics science domain” (contract no. 0501/01.11.2010.

  15. Stochastic Watershed Models for Risk Based Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Over half a century ago, the Harvard Water Program introduced the field of operational or synthetic hydrology providing stochastic streamflow models (SSMs), which could generate ensembles of synthetic streamflow traces useful for hydrologic risk management. The application of SSMs, based on streamflow observations alone, revolutionized water resources planning activities, yet has fallen out of favor due, in part, to their inability to account for the now nearly ubiquitous anthropogenic influences on streamflow. This commentary advances the modern equivalent of SSMs, termed `stochastic watershed models' (SWMs) useful as input to nearly all modern risk based water resource decision making approaches. SWMs are deterministic watershed models implemented using stochastic meteorological series, model parameters and model errors, to generate ensembles of streamflow traces that represent the variability in possible future streamflows. SWMs combine deterministic watershed models, which are ideally suited to accounting for anthropogenic influences, with recent developments in uncertainty analysis and principles of stochastic simulation

  16. An Optimization of (Q,r Inventory Policy Based on Health Care Apparel Products with Compound Poisson Demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    An Pan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Addressing the problems of a health care center which produces tailor-made clothes for specific people, the paper proposes a single product continuous review model and establishes an optimal policy for the center based on (Q,r control policy to minimize expected average cost on an order cycle. A generic mathematical model to compute cost on real-time inventory level is developed to generate optimal order quantity under stochastic stock variation. The customer demands are described as compound Poisson process. Comparisons on cost between optimization method and experience-based decision on Q are made through numerical studies conducted for the inventory system of the center.

  17. Risk-Sensitive Multiagent Decision-Theoretic Planning Based on MDP and One-Switch Utility Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zeng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In high stakes situations decision-makers are often risk-averse and decision-making processes often take place in group settings. This paper studies multiagent decision-theoretic planning under Markov decision processes (MDPs framework with considering the change of agent’s risk attitude as his wealth level varies. Based on one-switch utility function that describes agent’s risk attitude change with his wealth level, we give the additive and multiplicative aggregation models of group utility and adopt maximizing expected group utility as planning objective. When the wealth level approaches infinity, the characteristics of optimal policy are analyzed for the additive and multiplicative aggregation model, respectively. Then a backward-induction method is proposed to divide the wealth level interval from negative infinity to initial wealth level into subintervals and determine the optimal policy in states and subintervals. The proposed method is illustrated by numerical examples and the influences of agent’s risk aversion parameters and weights on group decision-making are also analyzed.

  18. The Australian government's review of positron emission tomography: evidence-based policy-making in action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ware, Robert E; Francis, Hilton W; Read, Kenneth E

    2004-06-21

    The Commonwealth Government constituted the Medicare Services Advisory Committee (MSAC) to implement its commitment to entrench the principles of evidence-based medicine in Australian clinical practice. With its recent review of positron emission tomography (PETReview), the Commonwealth intervened in an established MSAC process, and sanctioned the stated objective to restrict expenditure on the technology. In our opinion: The evaluation of evidence by PETReview was fundamentally compromised by a failure to meet the terms of reference, poor science, poor process and unique decision-making benchmarks. By accepting the recommendations of PETReview, the Commonwealth is propagating information which is not of the highest quality. The use of inferior-quality information for decision-making by doctors, patients and policy-makers is likely to harm rather than enhance healthcare outcomes.

  19. A life-cycle approach to technology, infrastructure, and climate policy decision making: Transitioning to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and low-carbon electricity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaras, Constantine

    In order to mitigate the most severe effects of climate change, large global reductions in the current levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are required in this century to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations at less than double pre-industrial levels. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report states that GHG emissions should be reduced to 50-80% of 2000 levels by 2050 to increase the likelihood of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. In order to achieve the large GHG reductions by 2050 recommended by the IPCC, a fundamental shift and evolution will be required in the energy system. Because the electric power and transportation sectors represent the largest GHG emissions sources in the United States, a unique opportunity for coupling these systems via electrified transportation could achieve synergistic environmental (GHG emissions reductions) and energy security (petroleum displacement) benefits. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which use electricity from the grid to power a portion of travel, could play a major role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector. However, this thesis finds that life cycle GHG emissions from PHEVs depend on the electricity source that is used to charge the battery, so meaningful GHG emissions reductions with PHEVs are conditional on low-carbon electricity sources. Power plants and their associated GHGs are long-lived, and this work argues that decisions made regarding new electricity supplies within the next ten years will affect the potential of PHEVs to play a role in a low-carbon future in the coming decades. This thesis investigates the life cycle engineering, economic, and policy decisions involved in transitioning to PHEVs and low-carbon electricity. The government has a vast array of policy options to promote low-carbon technologies, some of which have proven to be more successful than others. This thesis uses life

  20. Management of Internal and External Factors of Decisive Policies in Agriculture in Macroeconomic Crisis Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanghele Cristian

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The management of internal and external factors directly influencing the decisions implemented by the managerial act at the macroeconomic analysis of the relations within this branch and sub-branches, of the disturbing factors with the implementation of some decisions to stop the phenomena of soil degradation and agricultural land and to preserve and develop their productive potential, a production surplus for ash consumption and ensuring a productive production for industrial consumption with the result of gaining added value and net profit as much as possible for the exploitation farms.

  1. Ethical Frameworks in Public Health Decision-Making: Defending a Value-Based and Pluralist Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grill, Kalle; Dawson, Angus

    2017-12-01

    A number of ethical frameworks have been proposed to support decision-making in public health and the evaluation of public health policy and practice. This is encouraging, since ethical considerations are of paramount importance in health policy. However, these frameworks have various deficiencies, in part because they incorporate substantial ethical positions. In this article, we discuss and criticise a framework developed by James Childress and Ruth Bernheim, which we consider to be the state of the art in the field. Their framework distinguishes aims, such as the promotion of public health, from constraints on the pursuit of those aims, such as the requirement to avoid limitations to liberty, or the requirement to be impartial. We show how this structure creates both theoretical and practical problems. We then go on to present and defend a more practical framework, one that is neutral in avoiding precommitment to particular values and how they ought to be weighted. We believe ethics is at the very heart of such weightings and our framework is developed to reflect this belief. It is therefore both pluralist and value-based. We compare our new framework to Childress and Bernheim's and outline its advantages. It is justified by its impetus to consider a wide range of alternatives and its tendency to direct decisions towards the best alternatives, as well as by the information provided by the ranking of alternatives and transparent explication of the judgements that motivate this ranking. The new framework presented should be useful to decision-makers in public health, as well as being a means to stimulate further reflection on the role of ethics in public health.

  2. Optimization of decision rules based on dynamic programming approach

    KAUST Repository

    Zielosko, Beata

    2014-01-14

    This chapter is devoted to the study of an extension of dynamic programming approach which allows optimization of approximate decision rules relative to the length and coverage. We introduce an uncertainty measure that is the difference between number of rows in a given decision table and the number of rows labeled with the most common decision for this table divided by the number of rows in the decision table. We fix a threshold γ, such that 0 ≤ γ < 1, and study so-called γ-decision rules (approximate decision rules) that localize rows in subtables which uncertainty is at most γ. Presented algorithm constructs a directed acyclic graph Δ γ T which nodes are subtables of the decision table T given by pairs "attribute = value". The algorithm finishes the partitioning of a subtable when its uncertainty is at most γ. The chapter contains also results of experiments with decision tables from UCI Machine Learning Repository. © 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland.

  3. Rapid review programs to support health care and policy decision making: a descriptive analysis of processes and methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polisena, Julie; Garritty, Chantelle; Kamel, Chris; Stevens, Adrienne; Abou-Setta, Ahmed M

    2015-03-14

    Health care decision makers often need to make decisions in limited timeframes and cannot await the completion of a full evidence review. Rapid reviews (RRs), utilizing streamlined systematic review methods, are increasingly being used to synthesize the evidence with a shorter turnaround time. Our primary objective was to describe the processes and methods used internationally to produce RRs. In addition, we sought to understand the underlying themes associated with these programs. We contacted representatives of international RR programs from a broad realm in health care to gather information about the methods and processes used to produce RRs. The responses were summarized narratively to understand the characteristics associated with their processes and methods. The summaries were compared and contrasted to highlight potential themes and trends related to the different RR programs. Twenty-nine international RR programs were included in our sample with a broad organizational representation from academia, government, research institutions, and non-for-profit organizations. Responses revealed that the main objectives for RRs were to inform decision making with regards to funding health care technologies, services and policy, and program development. Central themes that influenced the methods used by RR programs, and report type and dissemination were the imposed turnaround time to complete a report, resources available, the complexity and sensitivity of the research topics, and permission from the requestor. Our study confirmed that there is no standard approach to conduct RRs. Differences in processes and methods across programs may be the result of the novelty of RR methods versus other types of evidence syntheses, customization of RRs for various decision makers, and definition of 'rapid' by organizations, since it impacts both the timelines and the evidence synthesis methods. Future research should investigate the impact of current RR methods and reporting to

  4. Informing decision making in agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation policy: A Best–Worst Scaling survey of expert and farmer opinion in the sheep industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, A.K.; Jones, D.L.; Edwards-Jones, G.; Cross, P.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Effectiveness and practicality of greenhouse gas mitigation measures are assessed. ► Best–Worst Scaling surveys are used to elicit expert and sheep farmer opinion. ► Effective and practical measures are priority candidates for policy inclusion. ► Support mechanisms may be needed to deliver effective, low practicality measures. ► Variation in farmers’ perceptions of practicality holds implications for policy delivery. -- Abstract: Policy decision making for agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation is hindered by scientific uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of mitigation measures. Successful on-farm adoption of measures is contingent upon farmer perception of the relative practicality of implementing the measure and associated incentives and advice. In the absence of a comprehensive evidence base we utilised Best–Worst Scaling, a discrete choice survey method, to elicit expert and farmer opinion on the relative effectiveness and practicality of mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from sheep production systems. The method enabled individual mitigation measures to be ranked on a ratio scale of effectiveness (expert opinion) and practicality (farmer opinion). Six measures were identified as possessing the combined qualities of effectiveness and practicality and are considered priority candidates for policy promotion. The overall preferred measure was the use of legumes in pasture reseed mixes. Estimation and analysis of the distribution of individual respondent scores revealed heterogeneity in farmers’ perceptions of practicality, suggesting that flexible policies are required to enable farmers to select mitigation measures most suited to their farm type and locality. Practical measures with below average effectiveness may be widely adopted with limited regulation, incentivisation or advice, whilst some highly effective measures with lower practicality are likely to present greater obstacles to adoption

  5. European antitrust policy 1957-2004: An analysis of Commission decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carree, M.; Günster, A.; Schinkel, M.P.

    2008-01-01

    This paper provides a survey of European antitrust law enforcement since its foundation in the Treaty of Rome of 1957. We present a complete overview and statistical analysis of all 538 formal Commission decisions adopted up to 2004 under Articles 81, 82 and 86 of the European Community Treaty. We

  6. The Impact of Institutional Culture, Policy and Process on Student Engagement in University Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Philip

    2018-01-01

    There is a strong focus on the importance of student engagement in higher education, with increasing attention on how students can participate in their university's decision-making processes. Yet, although the concept appears to be almost universally accepted, it is rarely problematised. This has led some commentators to conclude that student…

  7. Principals' Decision Making in Discipline Policy Implementation: The Lutheran Schools' Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandon, Katherine J.

    2013-01-01

    This quantitative study examines the relationship of philosophical beliefs of administrators of Lutheran schools and the influence of those beliefs on discipline decision-making styles, job satisfaction, and other factors. The study patterns the survey work from William Perry (1999) and other theorists regarding philosophy and ethics. A…

  8. European antitrust policy 1957-2004: an analysis of Commission decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carree, M.; Günster, A.; Schinkel, M.P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper provides a survey of European antitrust law enforcement since its foundation in the Treaty of Rome of 1957 up to and including 2004. We present a complete overview and statistical analysis of all 538 formal Commission decisions under Articles 81, 82, and 86 of the European Community

  9. Enabling Participatory Decision Making Through Web-Based GIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheng, Grant; Yam, Kevin; Hassas, Aranak

    2001-01-01

    obligations to fellow human beings, animals, and the environment. People perceive that information travels essentially one way in the processes and the voices of the community and its members are not heard. Subsequently, they feel excluded from the actual decision making process and even from being able to participate meaningfully in the process. Recent advances in informatics and geomatics technology, such as the Internet, web-based software and geographic information systems (GIS), have made it possible to address these issues more effectively. We believe that the combined features of two software developed at the York Centre for Applied Sustainability can facilitate access to information, provide a virtual forum for discussion and debate, and it possible for individuals to participate in decision making process, and to infer peoples' values from their choice criteria selection

  10. ENERGY AWARE NETWORK: BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS BASED DECISION MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santosh Kumar Chaudhari

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A Network Management System (NMS plays a very important role in managing an ever-evolving telecommunication network. Generally an NMS monitors & maintains the health of network elements. The growing size of the network warrants extra functionalities from the NMS. An NMS provides all kinds of information about networks which can be used for other purposes apart from monitoring & maintaining networks like improving QoS & saving energy in the network. In this paper, we add another dimension to NMS services, namely, making an NMS energy aware. We propose a Decision Management System (DMS framework which uses a machine learning technique called Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN, to make the NMS energy aware. The DMS is capable of analysing and making control decisions based on network traffic. We factor in the cost of rerouting and power saving per port. Simulations are performed on standard network topologies, namely, ARPANet and IndiaNet. It is found that ~2.5-6.5% power can be saved.

  11. Integrated environmental decision support tool based on GIS technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doctor, P.G.; O'Neil, T.K.; Sackschewsky, M.R.; Becker, J.M.; Rykiel, E.J.; Walters, T.B.; Brandt, C.A.; Hall, J.A.

    1995-01-01

    Environmental restoration and management decisions facing the US Department of Energy require balancing trade-offs between diverse land uses and impacts over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Many types of environmental data have been collected for the Hanford Site and the Columbia River in Washington State over the past fifty years. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is integrating these data into a Geographic Information System (GIS) based computer decision support tool. This tool provides a comprehensive and concise description of the current environmental landscape that can be used to evaluate the ecological and monetary trade-offs between future land use, restoration and remediation options before action is taken. Ecological impacts evaluated include effects to individual species of concern and habitat loss and fragmentation. Monetary impacts include those associated with habitat mitigation. The tool is organized as both a browsing tool for educational purposes, and as a framework that leads a project manager through the steps needed to be in compliance with environmental requirements

  12. Sustainable development based energy policy making frameworks, a critical review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyar-Naimi, H.; Vaez-Zadeh, S.

    2012-01-01

    This paper, in the first step, presents an overview of the origination and formulation of sustainable development (SD) concept and the related policy making frameworks. The frameworks include Pressure–State–Response (PSR), Driving Force–State–Response (DSR), Driving Force–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR), Driving Force–Pressure–State–Effect–Action (DPSEA) and Driving Force-Pressure-State-Exposure-Effect-Action (DPSEEA). In this regard, 40 case studies using the reviewed frameworks reported during 1994–2011 are surveyed. Then, their application area and application intensity are investigated. It is concluded that PSR, and DPSEA and DPSEEA have the higher and lower application intensities, respectively. Moreover, using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with a set of criteria, it is shown that PSR and DPSIR have the highest and lowest priorities. Finally, the shortcomings of frameworks applications are discussed. The paper is helpful in selecting appropriate policy making frameworks and presents some hints for future research in the area for developing more comprehensive models especially for sustainable electric energy policy making. - Highlights: ► The origination and formulation of sustainable development (SD) concept is reviewed. ► SD based frameworks (PSR, DSR, DPSIR, DPSEA and DPSEEA) are also reviewed. ► Then, the frameworks application area and intensity in recent years are investigated. ► Finally, the SD concept and the SD based frameworks are criticized. ► It will be helpful for developing more comprehensive energy policy making models.

  13. Do political variables affect fiscal policy adjustment decisions? New empirical evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mierau, Jochen O.; Jong-A-Pin, Richard; de Haan, Jakob

    2007-01-01

    We test eight hypotheses on political factors influencing the likelihood that a fiscal policy adjustment occurs. We employ a panel discrete choice model for 20 OECD countries for the period 1970-2003. Two different definitions of fiscal adjustments are used to capture the differences between rapid

  14. Discourses, Decisions, Designs: "Special" Education Policy-Making in New South Wales, Scotland, Finland and Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chong, Pei Wen; Graham, Linda J.

    2017-01-01

    This comparative analysis investigates the influence of neo-liberal and inclusive discourses in "special" education policy-making in New South Wales, Scotland, Finland and Malaysia. The centrality of competition, selectivity and accountability in the discourses used in New South Wales and Malaysia suggests a system preference for…

  15. Impacts and Implications of Future-oriented Technology Analysis for Policy and Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    SARITAS Ozcan; CAGNIN CRISTIANO; HAVAS Attila; MILES Ian

    2009-01-01

    Most of the papers in this special issue were presented at the Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) that took place in October 2008. They address a wide variety of issues in FTA including methods and policy and governance impacts with discussions and demonstrations at the regional and corporate levels.

  16. Research on taxi software policy based on big data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Daoming

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Through big data analysis, statistical analysis of a large number of factors affect the establishment of the rally car index set, By establishing a mathematical model to analyze the different space-time taxi resource “to match supply and demand” degree, combined with intelligent deployment to solve the “taxi difficult” this hot social issues. This article takes Shanghai as an example, the central park, Lu Xun park, century park three areas as the object of study. From the “sky drops fast travel intelligence platform” big data, Extracted passenger demand and the number of taxi Kongshi data. Then demand and supply of taxis to establish indicators matrix, get the degree of matching supply needs of the region. Then through the big data relevant policies of each taxi company. Using the method of cluster analysis, to find the decisive role of the three aspects of the factors, using principal component analysis, compare the advantages and disadvantages of the existing company’s programs. Finally, according to the above research to develop a reasonable taxi software related policies.

  17. An Intelligent Fleet Condition-Based Maintenance Decision Making Method Based on Multi-Agent

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Sun

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the demand for condition-based maintenance online decision making among a mission oriented fleet, an intelligent maintenance decision making method based on Multi-agent and heuristic rules is proposed. The process of condition-based maintenance within an aircraft fleet (each containing one or more Line Replaceable Modules based on multiple maintenance thresholds is analyzed. Then the process is abstracted into a Multi-Agent Model, a 2-layer model structure containing host negotiation and independent negotiation is established, and the heuristic rules applied to global and local maintenance decision making is proposed. Based on Contract Net Protocol and the heuristic rules, the maintenance decision making algorithm is put forward. Finally, a fleet consisting of 10 aircrafts on a 3-wave continuous mission is illustrated to verify this method. Simulation results indicate that this method can improve the availability of the fleet, meet mission demands, rationalize the utilization of support resources and provide support for online maintenance decision making among a mission oriented fleet.

  18. Perspectives of policy and political decision makers on access to formal dementia care: expert interviews in eight European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broda, Anja; Bieber, Anja; Meyer, Gabriele; Hopper, Louise; Joyce, Rachael; Irving, Kate; Zanetti, Orazio; Portolani, Elisa; Kerpershoek, Liselot; Verhey, Frans; Vugt, Marjolein de; Wolfs, Claire; Eriksen, Siren; Røsvik, Janne; Marques, Maria J; Gonçalves-Pereira, Manuel; Sjölund, Britt-Marie; Woods, Bob; Jelley, Hannah; Orrell, Martin; Stephan, Astrid

    2017-08-03

    As part of the ActifCare (ACcess to Timely Formal Care) project, we conducted expert interviews in eight European countries with policy and political decision makers, or representatives of relevant institutions, to determine their perspectives on access to formal care for people with dementia and their carers. Each ActifCare country (Germany, Ireland, Italy, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, United Kingdom) conducted semi-structured interviews with 4-7 experts (total N = 38). The interview guide addressed the topics "Complexity and Continuity of Care", "Formal Services", and "Public Awareness". Country-specific analysis of interview transcripts used an inductive qualitative content analysis. Cross-national synthesis focused on similarities in themes across the ActifCare countries. The analysis revealed ten common themes and two additional sub-themes across countries. Among others, the experts highlighted the need for a coordinating role and the necessity of information to address issues of complexity and continuity of care, demanded person-centred, tailored, and multidisciplinary formal services, and referred to education, mass media and campaigns as means to raise public awareness. Policy and political decision makers appear well acquainted with current discussions among both researchers and practitioners of possible approaches to improve access to dementia care. Experts described pragmatic, realistic strategies to influence dementia care. Suggested innovations concerned how to achieve improved dementia care, rather than transforming the nature of the services provided. Knowledge gained in these expert interviews may be useful to national decision makers when they consider reshaping the organisation of dementia care, and may thus help to develop best-practice strategies and recommendations.

  19. The role of stakeholders in Murray-Darling Basin water management: How do irrigators make water use decisions and how can this influence water policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, E. M.; Wheeler, S. A.; Smith, D. J.; Gray, S.; Overton, I. C.; Crossman, N. D.; Doody, T.

    2014-12-01

    Water stress and overallocation are at the forefront of water management and policy challenges in Australia, especially in the Murray Darling Basin (MDB). Farmland within the MDB generates 40 percent of Australia's total agricultural production and utilizes 60 percent of all irrigation water withdrawn nationally. The Murray Darling Basin Plan, drafted in 2008 and enacted in November 2012, has at its core the establishment of environmentally sustainable diversion limits based on a threshold of water extraction which, if exceeded, would cause harm to key environmental assets in the MDB. The overall goal of the Plan is to balance economic, social and environmental outcomes within the Basin. Because irrigated agriculture is the major water user in the MDB, it is important to understand the factors that influence irrigation water use. We applied a mental modeling approach to assessing farmer water use decisions. The approach allowed us to solicit and document farmer insights into the multifaceted nature of irrigation water use decisions in the MDB. Following are a few insights gained from the workshops: 1) For both environmental and economic reasons, irrigators in the MDB have become experts in water use and water efficiency. Water managers and government officials could benefit by partnering with farmers and incorporating this expertise into water management decisions. 2) Irrigators in the MDB may have been misperceived when it comes to accepting policy change. Many, if not most, of the farmers we talked to understood the need for, or at least the inevitability of, governmental policies and regulations. But a lack of accountability and predictability has added to the uncertainty in farming decisions. 3) Irrigators in the MDB subscribe to the concept of environmental sustainability, although they might not always agree with how the concept is implemented. Farmers should be recognized for their significant investments in the long-term sustainability of their farms and

  20. Decisions by regulatory agencies: are they evidence-based?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Furberg Curt D

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Contradictory statements about the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs from the European Medicines Agency and the United States Food and Drug Administration have raised questions about whether regulatory decisions are evidence-based. For the selective COX-2 inhibitors, there are clear contraindications and warnings in Europe, but only a vaguely worded Black Box warning in the United States. All the non-selective agents are given an almost "clean bill of health" in Europe, while all of them are judged to have a similar risk-benefit ratio as celecoxib in the United States. The regulatory agencies have failed to recognize the clinical trial evidence that the risk of cardiovascular events varies substantially among the non-selective agents, with diclofenac carrying the highest risk of harm.

  1. Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robyn S. Wilson; Patricia L. Winter; Lynn A. Maguire; Timothy. Ascher

    2011-01-01

    Managing wildfire events to achieve multiple management objectives involves a high degree of decision complexity and uncertainty, increasing the likelihood that decisions will be informed by experience-based heuristics triggered by available cues at the time of the decision. The research reported here tests the prevalence of three risk-based biases among 206...

  2. Data-Based Decision-Making: Developing a Method for Capturing Teachers' Understanding of CBM Graphs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espin, Christine A.; Wayman, Miya Miura; Deno, Stanley L.; McMaster, Kristen L.; de Rooij, Mark

    2017-01-01

    In this special issue, we explore the decision-making aspect of "data-based decision-making". The articles in the issue address a wide range of research questions, designs, methods, and analyses, but all focus on data-based decision-making for students with learning difficulties. In this first article, we introduce the topic of…

  3. Examining Preservice Teachers' Decision Behaviors and Individual Differences in Three Online Case-Based Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cevik, Yasemin Demiraslan; Andre, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    This study compared the impact of three types of case-based methods (case-based reasoning, worked example, and faded worked example) on preservice teachers' (n = 71) interaction with decision tasks and whether decision related measures (task difficulty, mental effort, decision making performance) were associated with the differences in student…

  4. A Decision Analytic Approach to Exposure-Based Chemical ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The manufacture of novel synthetic chemicals has increased in volume and variety, but often the environmental and health risks are not fully understood in terms of toxicity and, in particular, exposure. While efforts to assess risks have generally been effective when sufficient data are available, the hazard and exposure data necessary to assess risks adequately are unavailable for the vast majority of chemicals in commerce. The US Environmental Protection Agency has initiated the ExpoCast Program to develop tools for rapid chemical evaluation based on potential for exposure. In this context, a model is presented in which chemicals are evaluated based on inherent chemical properties and behaviorally-based usage characteristics over the chemical’s life cycle. These criteria are assessed and integrated within a decision analytic framework, facilitating rapid assessment and prioritization for future targeted testing and systems modeling. A case study outlines the prioritization process using 51 chemicals. The results show a preliminary relative ranking of chemicals based on exposure potential. The strength of this approach is the ability to integrate relevant statistical and mechanistic data with expert judgment, allowing for an initial tier assessment that can further inform targeted testing and risk management strategies. The National Exposure Research Laboratory′s (NERL′s) Human Exposure and Atmospheric Sciences Division (HEASD) conducts research in suppor

  5. Development of an integrated model for the Campaspe catchment: a tool to help improve understanding of the interaction between society, policy, farming decision, ecology, hydrology and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwanaga, Takuya; Zare, Fateme; Croke, Barry; Fu, Baihua; Merritt, Wendy; Partington, Daniel; Ticehurst, Jenifer; Jakeman, Anthony

    2018-06-01

    Management of water resources requires understanding of the hydrology and hydrogeology, as well as the policy and human drivers and their impacts. This understanding requires relevant inputs from a wide range of disciplines, which will vary depending on the specific case study. One approach to gain understanding of the impact of climate and society on water resources is through the use of an integrated modelling process that engages stakeholders and experts in specifics of problem framing, co-design of the underpinning conceptual model, and discussion of the ensuing results. In this study, we have developed such an integrated modelling process for the Campaspe basin in northern Victoria, Australia. The numerical model built has a number of components: - Node/link based surface water hydrology module based on the IHACRES rainfall-streamflow model - Distributed groundwater model for the lower catchment (MODFLOW) - Farm decision optimisation module (to determine irrigation requirements) - Policy module (setting conditions on availability of water based on existing rules) - Ecology module (determining the impacts of available streamflow on platypus, fish and river red gum trees) The integrated model is component based and has been developed in Python, with the MODFLOW and surface water hydrology model run in external programs, controlled by the master program (in Python). The integrated model has been calibrated using historical data, with the intention of exploring the impact of various scenarios (future climate scenarios, different policy options, water management options) on the water resources. The scenarios were selected based on workshops with, and a social survey of, stakeholders in the basin regarding what would be socially acceptable and physically plausible options for changes in management. An example of such a change is the introduction of a managed aquifer recharge system to capture dam overflows, and store at least a portion of this in the aquifer

  6. European Union research in support of environment and health: Building scientific evidence base for policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karjalainen, Tuomo; Hoeveler, Arnd; Draghia-Akli, Ruxandra

    2017-06-01

    Opinion polls show that the European Union citizens are increasingly concerned about the impact of environmental factors on their health. In order to respond and provide solid scientific evidence for the numerous policies related to the protection of human health and the environment managed at the Union level, the European Union made a substantial investment in research and innovation in the past two decades through its Framework Programmes for Research and Technological Development, including the current programme, Horizon 2020, which started in 2014. This policy review paper analysed the portfolio of forty collaborative projects relevant to environment and health, which received a total amount of around 228 million euros from the EU. It gives details on their contents and general scientific trends observed, the profiles of the participating countries and institutions, and the potential policy implications of the results obtained. The increasing knowledge base is needed to make informed policy decisions in Europe and beyond, and should be useful to many stakeholders including the scientific community and regulatory authorities. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  7. Some Numbers behind Canada's Decision to Adopt an Orphan Drug Policy: US Orphan Drug Approvals in Canada, 1997-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herder, Matthew; Krahn, Timothy Mark

    2016-05-01

    We examined whether access to US-approved orphan drugs in Canada has changed between 1997 (when Canada chose not to adopt an orphan drug policy) and 2012 (when Canada reversed its policy decision). Specifically, we looked at two dimensions of access to US-approved orphan drugs in Canada: (1) regulatory access; and (2) temporal access. Whereas only 63% of US-approved orphan drugs were granted regulatory approval in 1997, we found that regulatory access to US-approved orphan drugs in Canada increased to 74% between 1997 and 2012. However, temporal access to orphan drugs is slower in Canada: in a head-on comparison of 40 matched drugs, only two were submitted and four were approved first in Canada; moreover, the mean review time in Canada (423 days) was longer than that in the US (mean = 341 days), a statistically significant difference (t[39] = 2.04, p = 0.048). These results raise questions about what motivated Canada's apparent shift in orphan drug policy. Copyright © 2016 Longwoods Publishing.

  8. THE STRUCTURAL SPECIFICITIES OF THE US CONGRESS’ WHICH INFLUENCE THE POLICY DECISION-MAKING PROCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O A. Frolova

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The U.S. Congress plays an important role in the decision-making process at the system of American political management. First of all, it applies to formulation and coordination of different interests through the law passing process. The article examines the Congress’ structure and the different aspects of its functioning. Those aspects often play a key role in lawmaking process and later affect the forming of the US political vector. The author comes to conclusion that the existing system of subcommittees doesn’t allow the U.S. Legislature to consider many bills completely and that fact negatively impacts on political decision-making process.Purchase on Elibrary.ru > Buy now

  9. Grey situation group decision-making method based on prospect theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Na; Fang, Zhigeng; Liu, Xiaqing

    2014-01-01

    This paper puts forward a grey situation group decision-making method on the basis of prospect theory, in view of the grey situation group decision-making problems that decisions are often made by multiple decision experts and those experts have risk preferences. The method takes the positive and negative ideal situation distance as reference points, defines positive and negative prospect value function, and introduces decision experts' risk preference into grey situation decision-making to make the final decision be more in line with decision experts' psychological behavior. Based on TOPSIS method, this paper determines the weight of each decision expert, sets up comprehensive prospect value matrix for decision experts' evaluation, and finally determines the optimal situation. At last, this paper verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the method by means of a specific example.

  10. Comparison of some classification algorithms based on deterministic and nondeterministic decision rules

    KAUST Repository

    Delimata, Paweł; Marszał-Paszek, Barbara; Moshkov, Mikhail; Paszek, Piotr; Skowron, Andrzej; Suraj, Zbigniew

    2010-01-01

    the considered algorithms extract from a given decision table efficiently some information about the set of rules. Next, this information is used by a decision-making procedure. The reported results of experiments show that the algorithms based on inhibitory

  11. To notify or not to notify : Decision aid for policy makers on whether to make an infectious disease mandatorily notifiable

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijkerk, Paul; Fanoy, E. B.; Kardamanidis, K.; van der Plas, S. M.; te Wierik, M. J.; Kretzschmar, M. E.; Haringhuizen, G. B.; van Vliet, H. J.; van der Sande, M. A.

    2015-01-01

    Mandatory notification can be a useful tool to support infectious disease prevention and control. Guidelines are needed to help policymakers decide whether mandatory notification of an infectious disease is appropriate. We developed a decision aid, based on a range of criteria previously used in the

  12. Mapping Russian Media Network: Media’s Role in Russian Foreign Policy and Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-14

    political spheres in target countries. Thus media are ultimately only one instrument, albeit quite an important one, in a much larger toolkit ...2017. 22 Presidential Administration and presidential spokesman, are former career diplomats. First Deputy Chief of Staff Sergey...who serves as President Putin’s foreign policy advisor) is also a career diplomat and a past ambassador to the United States.56 CNA’s analysis

  13. Housing policy, poverty, and culture: 'discounting' decisions among Pacific peoples in Auckland, New Zealand

    OpenAIRE

    Tarin Cheer; Robin Kearns; Laurence Murphy

    2002-01-01

    This paper explores the links between housing and other welfare policies, low income, and culture among Pacific peoples within Auckland, New Zealand. These migrant peoples occupy an ambiguous social space within Auckland: they represent the visible face of the world's largest Polynesian city, yet are occupants of some of the city's poorest and least health-promoting housing. Through considering the balance between choice and constraint, we examine how housing costs, poverty, and cultural prac...

  14. Racism, Gun Ownership and Gun Control: Biased Attitudes in US Whites May Influence Policy Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    O?Brien, Kerry; Forrest, Walter; Lynott, Dermot; Daly, Michael

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Racism is related to policies preferences and behaviors that adversely affect blacks and appear related to a fear of blacks (e.g., increased policing, death penalty). This study examined whether racism is also related to gun ownership and opposition to gun controls in US whites. METHOD: The most recent data from the American National Election Study, a large representative US sample, was used to test relationships between racism, gun ownership, and opposition to gun control in US wh...

  15. The Influence of Entry Mode Decisions on International Marketing Policies. A Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio Musso

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Several studies on firms' marketing strategy in foreign markets revealed inconsistent resultsregarding the relationship between entry mode strategies and the adoption of marketing policies. Thisinconsistency was due to the diversity of assumptions used for the conceptualization of the influence of entrymodes on marketing strategies. The purpose of this paper is to offer a conceptual model that can support theanalysis of how the firm’s choice of entry mode may influence the adoption of marketing tools in the selectedmarket.

  16. Assessing of energy policies based on Turkish agriculture:

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sayin, Cengiz; Nisa Mencet, M.; Ozkan, Burhan

    2005-01-01

    In this study, the current energy status of Turkey and the effects of national energy policies on Turkish agricultural support policies are discussed for both current and future requirements. Turkey is an energy-importing country producing 30 mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent) energy but consuming 80 mtoe. The energy import ratio of Turkey is 65-70% and the majority of this import is based on petroleum and natural gas. Furthermore, while world energy demand increases by 1.8% annually, Turkey's energy demand increases by about 8%. Although energy consumption in agriculture is much lower than the other sectors in Turkey, energy use as both input and output of agricultural sector is a very important issue due to its large agricultural potential and rural area. Total agricultural land area is 27.8 million hectares and about 66.5% of this area is devoted for cereal production. On the other hand, Turkey has over 4 million agricultural farm holdings of which 70-75% is engaged in cereal production. Machinery expenses, mainly diesel, constitute 30-50% of total variable expenses in cereal production costs. It is observed that energy policies pursued in agriculture have been directly affected by diesel prices in Turkey. Therefore, support policy tools for using diesel and electricity in agriculture are being pursued by the Turkish government

  17. Evidence-based decision making in health care settings: from theory to practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohn, Melanie Kazman; Berta, Whitney; Langley, Ann; Davis, David

    2011-01-01

    The relatively recent attention that evidence-based decision making has received in health care management has been at least in part due to the profound influence of evidence-based medicine. The result has been several comparisons in the literature between the use of evidence in health care management decisions and the use of evidence in medical decision making. Direct comparison, however, may be problematic, given the differences between medicine and management as they relate to (1) the nature of evidence that is brought to bear on decision making; (2) the maturity of empirical research in each field (in particular, studies that have substantiated whether or not and how evidence-based decision making is enacted); and (3) the context within which evidence-based decisions are made. By simultaneously reviewing evidence-based medicine and management, this chapter aims to inform future theorizing and empirical research on evidence-based decision making in health care settings.

  18. Development of a GIS-Based Decision Support System for Diagnosis of River System Health and Restoration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jihong Xia

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The development of a decision support system (DSS to inform policy making has been progressing rapidly. This paper presents a generic framework and the development steps of a decision tool prototype of geographic information systems (GIS-based decision support system of river health diagnosis (RHD-DSS. This system integrates data, calculation models, and human knowledge of river health status assessment, causal factors diagnosis, and restoration decision making to assist decision makers during river restoration and management in Zhejiang Province, China. Our RHD-DSS is composed of four main elements: the graphical user interface (GUI, the database, the model base, and the knowledge base. It has five functional components: the input module, the database management, the diagnostic indicators management, the assessment and diagnosis, and the visual result module. The system design is illustrated with particular emphasis on the development of the database, model schemas, diagnosis and analytical processing techniques, and map management design. Finally, the application of the prototype RHD-DSS is presented and implemented for Xinjiangtang River of Haining County in Zhejiang Province, China. This case study is used to demonstrate the advantages gained by the application of this system. We conclude that there is great potential for using the RHD-DSS to systematically manage river basins in order to effectively mitigate environmental issues. The proposed approach will provide river managers and designers with improved insight into river degradation conditions, thereby strengthening the assessment process and the administration of human activities in river management.

  19. The cost of diabetes in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2015: Evidence for decision and policy makers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barcelo, Alberto; Arredondo, Armando; Gordillo-Tobar, Amparo; Segovia, Johanna; Qiang, Anthony

    2017-12-01

    . Diabetes represented a major economic burden to the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean in 2015. The estimates presented here are key information for decision-making that can be used in the formulation of policies and programs to achieve greater efficiency and effectiveness in the use of resources for diabetes prevention in the 29 countries of LAC.

  20. Strengthening vaccination policies in Latin America: an evidence-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapia-Conyer, Roberto; Betancourt-Cravioto, Miguel; Saucedo-Martínez, Rodrigo; Motta-Murguía, Lourdes; Gallardo-Rincón, Héctor

    2013-08-20

    Despite many successes in the region, Latin American vaccination policies have significant shortcomings, and further work is needed to maintain progress and prepare for the introduction of newly available vaccines. In order to address the challenges facing Latin America, the Commission for the Future of Vaccines in Latin America (COFVAL) has made recommendations for strengthening evidence-based policy-making and reducing regional inequalities in immunisation. We have conducted a comprehensive literature review to assess the feasibility of these recommendations. Standardisation of performance indicators for disease burden, vaccine coverage, epidemiological surveillance and national health resourcing can ensure comparability of the data used to assess vaccination programmes, allowing deeper analysis of how best to provide services. Regional vaccination reference schemes, as used in Europe, can be used to develop best practice models for vaccine introduction and scheduling. Successful models exist for the continuous training of vaccination providers and decision-makers, with a new Latin American diploma aiming to contribute to the successful implementation of vaccination programmes. Permanent, independent vaccine advisory committees, based on the US Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), could facilitate the uptake of new vaccines and support evidence-based decision-making in the administration of national immunisation programmes. Innovative financing mechanisms for the purchase of new vaccines, such as advance market commitments and cost front-loading, have shown potential for improving vaccine coverage. A common regulatory framework for vaccine approval is needed to accelerate delivery and pool human, technological and scientific resources in the region. Finally, public-private partnerships between industry, government, academia and non-profit sectors could provide new investment to stimulate vaccine development in the region, reducing prices in the

  1. A Human-Needs-Based Dynamics to Simulate Technology Policy and Its Effects on Both Business Success and Human Happiness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong-Yeon Lim

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on how human needs are reflected in the market and how several technological and political policies affect the market share of government-supported industries, as well as the satisfaction of human desires and consequent happiness. In this paper, we seek to understand the dynamics of consumer decision-making processes in relation to technology products in the market. In this study, we present a new marketing model based on human needs, wants, and demands, and focus on both holistic and social perspectives. We have shown that human-based policy dynamics and sustainable human happiness can be realized by stimulating national policies for consumer happiness in the human-needs-based sector, e.g., the healthcare industry.

  2. The greatest happiness of the greatest number? Policy actors' perspectives on the limits of economic evaluation as a tool for informing health care coverage decisions in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teerawattananon, Yot; Russell, Steve

    2008-09-26

    This paper presents qualitative findings from an assessment of the acceptability of using economic evaluation among policy actors in Thailand. Using cost-utility data from two economic analyses a hypothetical case scenario was created in which policy actors had to choose between two competing interventions to include in a public health benefit package. The two competing interventions, laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) for gallbladder disease versus renal dialysis for chronic renal disease, were selected because they highlighted conflicting criteria influencing the allocation of healthcare resources. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 36 policy actors who play a major role in resource allocation decisions within the Thai healthcare system. These included 14 policy makers at the national level, five hospital directors, ten health professionals and seven academics. Twenty six out of 36 (72%) respondents were not convinced by the presentation of economic evaluation findings and chose not to support the inclusion of a proven cost-effective intervention (LC) in the benefit package due to ethical, institutional and political considerations. There were only six respondents, including three policy makers at national level, one hospital director, one health professional and one academic, (6/36, 17%) whose decisions were influenced by economic evaluation evidence. This paper illustrates limitations of using economic evaluation information in decision making priorities of health care, perceived by different policy actors. It demonstrates that the concept of maximising health utility fails to recognise other important societal values in making health resource allocation decisions.

  3. The greatest happiness of the greatest number? Policy actors' perspectives on the limits of economic evaluation as a tool for informing health care coverage decisions in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russell Steve

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper presents qualitative findings from an assessment of the acceptability of using economic evaluation among policy actors in Thailand. Using cost-utility data from two economic analyses a hypothetical case scenario was created in which policy actors had to choose between two competing interventions to include in a public health benefit package. The two competing interventions, laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC for gallbladder disease versus renal dialysis for chronic renal disease, were selected because they highlighted conflicting criteria influencing the allocation of healthcare resources. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 36 policy actors who play a major role in resource allocation decisions within the Thai healthcare system. These included 14 policy makers at the national level, five hospital directors, ten health professionals and seven academics. Results Twenty six out of 36 (72% respondents were not convinced by the presentation of economic evaluation findings and chose not to support the inclusion of a proven cost-effective intervention (LC in the benefit package due to ethical, institutional and political considerations. There were only six respondents, including three policy makers at national level, one hospital director, one health professional and one academic, (6/36, 17% whose decisions were influenced by economic evaluation evidence. Conclusion This paper illustrates limitations of using economic evaluation information in decision making priorities of health care, perceived by different policy actors. It demonstrates that the concept of maximising health utility fails to recognise other important societal values in making health resource allocation decisions.

  4. Women's perspectives on the ethical implications of non-invasive prenatal testing: a qualitative analysis to inform health policy decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanstone, Meredith; Cernat, Alexandra; Nisker, Jeff; Schwartz, Lisa

    2018-04-16

    Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing (NIPT) is a technology which provides information about fetal genetic characteristics (including sex) very early in pregnancy by examining fetal DNA obtained from a sample of maternal blood. NIPT is a morally complex technology that has advanced quickly to market with a strong push from industry developers, leaving many areas of uncertainty still to be resolved, and creating a strong need for health policy that reflects women's social and ethical values. We approach the need for ethical policy-making by studying the use of NIPT and emerging policy in the province of Ontario, Canada. Using an adapted version of constructivist grounded theory, we conducted interviews with 38 women who have had personal experiences with NIPT. We used an iterative process of data collection and analysis and a staged coding strategy to conduct a descriptive analysis of ethics issues identified implicitly and explicitly by women who have been affected by this technology. The findings of this paper focus on current ethical issues for women seeking NIPT, including place in the prenatal pathway, health care provider counselling about the test, industry influence on the diffusion of NIPT, consequences of availability of test results. Other issues gain relevance in the context of future policy decisions regarding NIPT, including funding of NIPT and principles that may govern the expansion of the scope of NIPT. These findings are not an exhaustive list of all the potential ethical issues related to NIPT, but rather a representation of the issues which concern women who have personal experience with this test. Women who have had personal experience with NIPT have concerns and priorities which sometimes contrast dramatically with the theoretical ethics literature. These findings suggest the importance of engaging patients in ethical deliberation about morally complex technologies, and point to the need for more deliberative patient engagement work in this area.

  5. CLIPS based decision support system for water distribution networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Sandeep

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The difficulty in knowledge representation of a water distribution network (WDN problem has contributed to the limited use of artificial intelligence (AI based expert systems (ES in the management of these networks. This paper presents a design of a Decision Support System (DSS that facilitates "on-demand'' knowledge generation by utilizing results of simulation runs of a suitably calibrated and validated hydraulic model of an existing aged WDN corresponding to emergent or even hypothetical but likely scenarios. The DSS augments the capability of a conventional expert system by integrating together the hydraulic modelling features with heuristics based knowledge of experts under a common, rules based, expert shell named CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System. In contrast to previous ES, the knowledge base of the DSS has been designed to be dynamic by superimposing CLIPS on Structured Query Language (SQL. The proposed ES has an inbuilt calibration module that enables calibration of an existing (aged WDN for the unknown, and unobservable, Hazen-Williams C-values. In addition, the daily run and simulation modules of the proposed ES further enable the CLIPS inference engine to evaluate the network performance for any emergent or suggested test scenarios. An additional feature of the proposed design is that the DSS integrates computational platforms such as MATLAB, open source Geographical Information System (GIS, and a relational database management system (RDBMS working under the umbrella of the Microsoft Visual Studio based common user interface. The paper also discusses implementation of the proposed framework on a case study and clearly demonstrates the utility of the application as an able aide for effective management of the study network.

  6. Decision Making Analysis: Critical Factors-Based Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    the pitfalls associated with current wargaming methods such as assuming a western view of rational values in decision - making regardless of the cultures...Utilization theory slightly expands the rational decision making model as it states that “actors try to maximize their expected utility by weighing the...items to categorize the decision - making behavior of political leaders which tend to demonstrate either a rational or cognitive leaning. Leaders

  7. Assessing the impact of policy interventions on the adoption of plug-in electric vehicles: An agent-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silvia, Chris; Krause, Rachel M.

    2016-01-01

    Heightened concern regarding climate change and energy independence has increased interest in plug-in electric vehicles as one means to address these challenges and governments at all levels have considered policy interventions to encourage their adoption. This paper develops an agent-based model that simulates the introduction of four policy scenarios aimed at promoting electric vehicle adoption in an urban community and compares them against a baseline. These scenarios include reducing vehicle purchase price via subsidies, expanding the local public charging network, increasing the number and visibility of fully battery electric vehicles (BEVs) on the roadway through government fleet purchases, and a hybrid mix of these three approaches. The results point to the effectiveness of policy options that increased awareness of BEV technology. Specifically, the hybrid policy alternative was the most successful in encouraging BEV adoption. This policy increases the visibility and familiarity of BEV technology in the community and may help counter the idea that BEVs are not a viable alternative to gasoline-powered vehicles. - Highlights: •Various policy interventions to encourage electric vehicle adoption are examined. •An agent based model is used to simulate individual adoption decisions. •Policies that increase the familiarity of electric vehicles are most effective.

  8. The limits of scientific information for informing forest policy decisions under changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLachlan, J. S.

    2011-12-01

    The distribution of tree species is largely determined by climate, with important consequences for ecosystem function, biodiversity, and the human economy. In the past, conflicts about priority among these various goods have produced persistent debate about forest policy and management. Despite this history of conflict, there has been general agreement on the framework for the debate: Our benchmark for assessing human impact is generally some historical condition (in the New World, this is often pre-European settlement). Wilderness is to be managed with minimal human intervention. Native species are preferred over non-natives. And regional landscapes can be effectively partitioned into independent jurisdictions with different management priorities. Each of these principles was always somewhat mythical, but the dynamics of broad scale species range shifts under climate change make all of them untenable in the future. Managed relocation (MR, or assisted migration) is a controversial proposal partly because it demands scientific answers that we do not have: Are trees naturally capable of shifting their ranges as fast as climate will force them? Will deliberate introductions of species beyond their native ranges have adverse impacts on the receiving ecosystem? What are appropriate targets for hydrologic or fire management under novel no-analog climates? However, these demands on science mask a more fundamental concern: the ethical framework underlying existing forest policy is unsupported in the context of long-term non-stationary environmental trends. Whether or not we conclude that MR is a useful policy option, debate about MR is useful because it forces us to place the global change ecology agenda in a larger ethical debate about our goals when managing novel ecosystems.

  9. Searching for solutions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions by agricultural policy decisions--Application of system dynamics modeling for the case of Latvia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dace, Elina; Muizniece, Indra; Blumberga, Andra; Kaczala, Fabio

    2015-09-15

    European Union (EU) Member States have agreed to limit their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from sectors not covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (non-ETS). That includes also emissions from agricultural sector. Although the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has established a methodology for assessment of GHG emissions from agriculture, the forecasting options are limited, especially when policies and their interaction with the agricultural system are tested. Therefore, an advanced tool, a system dynamics model, was developed that enables assessment of effects various decisions and measures have on agricultural GHG emissions. The model is based on the IPCC guidelines and includes the main elements of an agricultural system, i.e. land management, livestock farming, soil fertilization and crop production, as well as feedback mechanisms between the elements. The case of Latvia is selected for simulations, as agriculture generates 22% of the total anthropogenic GHG emissions in the country. The results demonstrate that there are very limited options for GHG mitigation in the agricultural sector. Thereby, reaching the non-ETS GHG emission targets will be very challenging for Latvia, as the level of agricultural GHG emissions will be exceeded considerably above the target levels. Thus, other non-ETS sectors will have to reduce their emissions drastically to "neutralize" the agricultural sector's emissions for reaching the EU's common ambition to move towards low-carbon economy. The developed model may serve as a decision support tool for impact assessment of various measures and decisions on the agricultural system's GHG emissions. Although the model is applied to the case of Latvia, the elements and structure of the model developed are similar to agricultural systems in many countries. By changing numeric values of certain parameters, the model can be applied to analyze decisions and measures in other countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All

  10. System and method for integrating hazard-based decision making tools and processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgin, C Reed [Westminster, CO

    2012-03-20

    A system and method for inputting, analyzing, and disseminating information necessary for identified decision-makers to respond to emergency situations. This system and method provides consistency and integration among multiple groups, and may be used for both initial consequence-based decisions and follow-on consequence-based decisions. The system and method in a preferred embodiment also provides tools for accessing and manipulating information that are appropriate for each decision-maker, in order to achieve more reasoned and timely consequence-based decisions. The invention includes processes for designing and implementing a system or method for responding to emergency situations.

  11. Demonstration of optical computing logics based on binary decision diagram.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Shiyun; Ishikawa, Yasuhiko; Wada, Kazumi

    2012-01-16

    Optical circuits are low power consumption and fast speed alternatives for the current information processing based on transistor circuits. However, because of no transistor function available in optics, the architecture for optical computing should be chosen that optics prefers. One of which is Binary Decision Diagram (BDD), where signal is processed by sending an optical signal from the root through a serial of switching nodes to the leaf (terminal). Speed of optical computing is limited by either transmission time of optical signals from the root to the leaf or switching time of a node. We have designed and experimentally demonstrated 1-bit and 2-bit adders based on the BDD architecture. The switching nodes are silicon ring resonators with a modulation depth of 10 dB and the states are changed by the plasma dispersion effect. The quality, Q of the rings designed is 1500, which allows fast transmission of signal, e.g., 1.3 ps calculated by a photon escaping time. A total processing time is thus analyzed to be ~9 ps for a 2-bit adder and would scales linearly with the number of bit. It is two orders of magnitude faster than the conventional CMOS circuitry, ~ns scale of delay. The presented results show the potential of fast speed optical computing circuits.

  12. Impact of different policies on unhealthy dietary behaviors in an urban adult population: an agent-based simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Donglan; Giabbanelli, Philippe J; Arah, Onyebuchi A; Zimmerman, Frederick J

    2014-07-01

    Unhealthy eating is a complex-system problem. We used agent-based modeling to examine the effects of different policies on unhealthy eating behaviors. We developed an agent-based simulation model to represent a synthetic population of adults in Pasadena, CA, and how they make dietary decisions. Data from the 2007 Food Attitudes and Behaviors Survey and other empirical studies were used to calibrate the parameters of the model. Simulations were performed to contrast the potential effects of various policies on the evolution of dietary decisions. Our model showed that a 20% increase in taxes on fast foods would lower the probability of fast-food consumption by 3 percentage points, whereas improving the visibility of positive social norms by 10%, either through community-based or mass-media campaigns, could improve the consumption of fruits and vegetables by 7 percentage points and lower fast-food consumption by 6 percentage points. Zoning policies had no significant impact. Interventions emphasizing healthy eating norms may be more effective than directly targeting food prices or regulating local food outlets. Agent-based modeling may be a useful tool for testing the population-level effects of various policies within complex systems.

  13. Enabling Participatory Decision Making Through Web-Based GIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheng, Grant; Yam, Kevin; Hassas, Aranak [York Univ., Toronto, ON (Canada). Faculty of Environmental Studies

    2001-07-01

    , morals, ethical behaviour, our relationship with, and obligations to fellow human beings, animals, and the environment. People perceive that information travels essentially one way in the processes and the voices of the community and its members are not heard. Subsequently, they feel excluded from the actual decision making process and even from being able to participate meaningfully in the process. Recent advances in informatics and geomatics technology, such as the Internet, web-based software and geographic information systems (GIS), have made it possible to address these issues more effectively. We believe that the combined features of two software developed at the York Centre for Applied Sustainability can facilitate access to information, provide a virtual forum for discussion and debate, and it possible for individuals to participate in decision making process, and to infer peoples' values from their choice criteria selection.

  14. The for-profit sector in humanitarian response: integrating ethical considerations in public policy decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huckel Schneider, Carmen; Negin, Joel

    2016-01-01

    The engagement of the for-profit private sector in health, social and humanitarian services has become a topic of keen interest. It is particularly contentious in those instances where for-profit organizations have become recipients of public funds, and where they become key decision-makers in terms of how, and to whom, services are provided. We put forward a framework for identifying and organizing the ethical questions to be considered when contracting government services to the for-profit sector, specifically in those areas that have traditionally remained in the public or not-for-profit spheres. The framework is designed to inform both academic debate and practical decision-making regarding the acceptability, feasibility and legitimacy of for-profit organizations carrying out humanitarian work. First, we outline the importance of posing ethical questions in government contracting for-profit vs. not-for-profit organizations. We then outline five key areas to be considered before then examining the extent to which ethics concerns are warranted and how they may be safeguarded.

  15. Innovation Need Survey: Implementing a Technology Tool to Improve Early Data-Based Decisions to Address and Prevent Learning Disabilities. Technical Report #1602

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvin, P. Shawn; Pilger, Marissa; Sáez, Leilani; Alonzo, Julie

    2016-01-01

    Identifying and measuring indicators of learning difficulties among young children and implementing effective instructional approaches are complicated, particularly during the transition to kindergarten. Purposeful school-based transition policies and practices support teacher and school decision-making and, thus, can ease the…

  16. Policy recommendations for addressing privacy challenges associated with cell-based research and interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogbogu, Ubaka; Burningham, Sarah; Ollenberger, Adam; Calder, Kathryn; Du, Li; El Emam, Khaled; Hyde-Lay, Robyn; Isasi, Rosario; Joly, Yann; Kerr, Ian; Malin, Bradley; McDonald, Michael; Penney, Steven; Piat, Gayle; Roy, Denis-Claude; Sugarman, Jeremy; Vercauteren, Suzanne; Verhenneman, Griet; West, Lori; Caulfield, Timothy

    2014-02-03

    The increased use of human biological material for cell-based research and clinical interventions poses risks to the privacy of patients and donors, including the possibility of re-identification of individuals from anonymized cell lines and associated genetic data. These risks will increase as technologies and databases used for re-identification become affordable and more sophisticated. Policies that require ongoing linkage of cell lines to donors' clinical information for research and regulatory purposes, and existing practices that limit research participants' ability to control what is done with their genetic data, amplify the privacy concerns. To date, the privacy issues associated with cell-based research and interventions have not received much attention in the academic and policymaking contexts. This paper, arising out of a multi-disciplinary workshop, aims to rectify this by outlining the issues, proposing novel governance strategies and policy recommendations, and identifying areas where further evidence is required to make sound policy decisions. The authors of this paper take the position that existing rules and norms can be reasonably extended to address privacy risks in this context without compromising emerging developments in the research environment, and that exceptions from such rules should be justified using a case-by-case approach. In developing new policies, the broader framework of regulations governing cell-based research and related areas must be taken into account, as well as the views of impacted groups, including scientists, research participants and the general public. This paper outlines deliberations at a policy development workshop focusing on privacy challenges associated with cell-based research and interventions. The paper provides an overview of these challenges, followed by a discussion of key themes and recommendations that emerged from discussions at the workshop. The paper concludes that privacy risks associated with cell-based

  17. Multi-criteria weighted order based maintenance decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dhanisetty, V.S.V.; Verhagen, W.J.C.; Curran, R.

    2017-01-01

    Decision making in daily maintenance requires consideration of multiple factors. The importance of each of the factors fluctuates depending on the repair scenario and the needs of the maintainer. In order to include the prioritisation of multiple criteria, a weighted decision making model is

  18. Improving anti-bullying laws and policies to protect youth from weight-based victimization: parental support for action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puhl, R M; Suh, Y; Li, X

    2017-04-01

    Weight-based bullying is a prevalent problem among youth with overweight and obesity, but remains neglected in existing policy-level strategies to address youth bullying. Parental support is an influential catalyst motivating political will for policy decisions affecting youth, but has received limited research attention. To assess levels of, and predictors of, parental support for school-based policies and state/federal legal measures to address weight-based bullying in 2014 and 2015. Identical online questionnaires were completed by two independent national samples of parents in 2014 and 2015 (N = 1804). Parental support for all policy actions was high (at least 81%) and significantly increased from 2014 to 2015 for legal measures that would a) require state anti-bullying laws to add protections against weight-based bullying, and b) enact a federal anti-bullying law that includes weight-based bullying. These findings can inform policy discourse about remedies for youth bullying, and suggest that parental support for improved legal protections against weight-based bullying is present, consistent, and strong. © 2016 World Obesity Federation.

  19. Pay-for-performance policy and data-driven decision making within nursing homes: a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrahamson, Kathleen; Miech, Edward; Davila, Heather Wood; Mueller, Christine; Cooke, Valerie; Arling, Greg

    2015-05-01

    Health systems globally and within the USA have introduced nursing home pay-for-performance (P4P) programmes in response to the need for improved nursing home quality. Central to the challenge of administering effective P4P is the availability of accurate, timely and clinically appropriate data for decision making. We aimed to explore ways in which data were collected, thought about and used as a result of participation in a P4P programme. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 232 nursing home employees from within 70 nursing homes that participated in P4P-sponsored quality improvement (QI) projects. Interview data were analysed to identify themes surrounding collecting, thinking about and using data for QI decision making. The term 'data' appeared 247 times in the interviews, and over 92% of these instances (228/247) were spontaneous references by nursing home staff. Overall, 34% of respondents (79/232) referred directly to 'data' in their interviews. Nursing home leadership more frequently discussed data use than direct care staff. Emergent themes included using data to identify a QI problem, gathering data in new ways at the local level, and measuring outcomes in response to P4P participation. Alterations in data use as a result of policy change were theoretically consistent with the revised version of the Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services framework, which posits that successful implementation is a function of evidence, context and facilitation. Providing a reimbursement context that facilitates the collection and use of reliable local evidence may be an important consideration to others contemplating the adaptation of P4P policies. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  20. Comparison of some classification algorithms based on deterministic and nondeterministic decision rules

    KAUST Repository

    Delimata, Paweł

    2010-01-01

    We discuss two, in a sense extreme, kinds of nondeterministic rules in decision tables. The first kind of rules, called as inhibitory rules, are blocking only one decision value (i.e., they have all but one decisions from all possible decisions on their right hand sides). Contrary to this, any rule of the second kind, called as a bounded nondeterministic rule, can have on the right hand side only a few decisions. We show that both kinds of rules can be used for improving the quality of classification. In the paper, two lazy classification algorithms of polynomial time complexity are considered. These algorithms are based on deterministic and inhibitory decision rules, but the direct generation of rules is not required. Instead of this, for any new object the considered algorithms extract from a given decision table efficiently some information about the set of rules. Next, this information is used by a decision-making procedure. The reported results of experiments show that the algorithms based on inhibitory decision rules are often better than those based on deterministic decision rules. We also present an application of bounded nondeterministic rules in construction of rule based classifiers. We include the results of experiments showing that by combining rule based classifiers based on minimal decision rules with bounded nondeterministic rules having confidence close to 1 and sufficiently large support, it is possible to improve the classification quality. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.