WorldWideScience

Sample records for policy analysis series

  1. Sustainability of Italian budgetary policies: a time series analysis (1862-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordon L. Brady

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we analyze the sustainability of Italian public finances using a unique database covering the period 1862-2013. This paper focuses on empirical tests for the sustainability and solvency of fiscal policies. A necessary but not sufficient condition implies that the growth rate of public debt should in the limit be smaller than the asymptotic rate of interest. In addition, the debt-to-GDP ratio must eventually stabilize at a steady-state level. The results of unit root and stationarity tests show that the variables are non-stationary at levels, but stationary in first-differences form, or I(1. However, some breaks in the series emerge, given internal and external crises (wars, oil shocks, regime changes, institutional reforms. Therefore, the empirical analysis is conducted for the entire period, as well as two sub‐periods (1862‐1913 and 1947‐2013. Moreover, anecdotal evidence and visual inspection of the series confirm our results. Furthermore, we conduct tests on cointegration, which evidence that a long-run relationship between public expenditure and revenues is found only for the first sub-period (1862-1913. In essence, the paper’s results reveal that Italy have sustainability problems in the Republican age.

  2. Evaluating pharmaceutical policies using cross-national comparisons and time series analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Santa Ana Tellez, Y.

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this thesis was to evaluate the effects of different pharmaceutical policies on the use of medicines (e.g. antibiotics). These policies were evaluated using diverse data sources from the public and private sector in countries in Africa, Latin America, and Western Europe. In addition, the

  3. Effect of UK policy on medical migration: a time series analysis of physician registration data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blacklock, Claire; Heneghan, Carl; Mant, David; Ward, Alison M

    2012-09-25

    Economically developed countries have recruited large numbers of overseas health workers to fill domestic shortages. Recognition of the negative impact this can have on health care in developing countries led the United Kingdom Department of Health to issue a Code of Practice for National Health Service (NHS) employers in 1999 providing ethical guidance on international recruitment. Case reports suggest this guidance had limited influence in the context of other NHS policy priorities. The temporal association between trends in new professional registrations from doctors qualifying overseas and relevant United Kingdom government policy is reported. Government policy documents were identified by a literature review; further information was obtained, when appropriate, through requests made under the Freedom of Information Act. Data on new professional registration of doctors were obtained from the General Medical Council (GMC). New United Kingdom professional registrations by doctors trained in Africa and south Asia more than doubled from 3105 in 2001 to 7343 in 2003, as NHS Trusts sought to achieve recruitment targets specified in the 2000 NHS Plan; this occurred despite ethical guidance to avoid active recruitment of doctors from resource-poor countries. Registration of such doctors declined subsequently, but in response to other government policy initiatives. A fall in registration of South African-trained doctors from 3206 in 2003 to 4 in 2004 followed a Memorandum of Understanding with South Africa signed in 2003. Registrations from India and Pakistan fell from a peak of 4626 in 2004 to 1169 in 2007 following changes in United Kingdom immigration law in 2005 and 2006. Since 2007, registration of new doctors trained outside the European Economic Area has remained relatively stable, but in 2010 the United Kingdom still registered 722 new doctors trained in Africa and 1207 trained in India and Pakistan. Ethical guidance was ineffective in preventing mass

  4. Evaluating the impact of a novel restricted reimbursement policy for quinolone antibiotics: A time series analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manns Braden

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Publicly-funded drug plans often use prior authorization policies to limit drug prescribing. To guide physician prescribing of a class of antibiotics with broad antimicrobial activity (quinolone antibiotics in accordance with new prescribing guidelines, Alberta’s provincial health ministry implemented a new mechanism for formulary restriction entitled the optional special authorization (OSA program. We conducted an observational study to determine the impact of this new formulary restriction policy on antimicrobial prescription rates as well as any clinical consequences. Methods Quinolone antibiotic use, and adherence with quinolone prescribing guidelines, was assessed before and after implementation of the OSA program in patients with common outpatient infections using an administrative data cohort and a chart review cohort, respectively. At the same time this policy was implemented to limit quinolone prescribing, two new quinolone antibiotics were added to the formulary. Using administrative data, we analysed a total of 397,534 unique index visits with regard to overall antibiotic utilization, and through chart review, we analysed 1681 charts of patients with infections of interest to determine the indications for quinolone usage. Results Using segmented regression models adjusting for age, sex and physician enrollment in the OSA program, there was no statistically significant change in the monthly rate of all quinolone use (−3.5 (95% CI −5.5, 1.4 prescriptions per 1000 index visits following implementation of the OSA program (p = 0.74. There was a significant level change in the rate of quinolone antibiotic use for urinary tract infection (−33.6 (95% CI: -23.8, -43.4 prescriptions and upper respiratory tract infection (−16.1 (95%CI: -11.6, -20.6 prescriptions per 1000 index visits. Among quinolone prescriptions identified on chart review, 42.5% and 58.5% were consistent with formulary guidelines before and

  5. The impact of policy guidelines on hospital antibiotic use over a decade: a segmented time series analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujith J Chandy

    Full Text Available Antibiotic pressure contributes to rising antibiotic resistance. Policy guidelines encourage rational prescribing behavior, but effectiveness in containing antibiotic use needs further assessment. This study therefore assessed the patterns of antibiotic use over a decade and analyzed the impact of different modes of guideline development and dissemination on inpatient antibiotic use.Antibiotic use was calculated monthly as defined daily doses (DDD per 100 bed days for nine antibiotic groups and overall. This time series compared trends in antibiotic use in five adjacent time periods identified as 'Segments,' divided based on differing modes of guideline development and implementation: Segment 1--Baseline prior to antibiotic guidelines development; Segment 2--During preparation of guidelines and booklet dissemination; Segment 3--Dormant period with no guidelines dissemination; Segment 4--Booklet dissemination of revised guidelines; Segment 5--Booklet dissemination of revised guidelines with intranet access. Regression analysis adapted for segmented time series and adjusted for seasonality assessed changes in antibiotic use trend.Overall antibiotic use increased at a monthly rate of 0.95 (SE = 0.18, 0.21 (SE = 0.08 and 0.31 (SE = 0.06 for Segments 1, 2 and 3, stabilized in Segment 4 (0.05; SE = 0.10 and declined in Segment 5 (-0.37; SE = 0.11. Segments 1, 2 and 4 exhibited seasonal fluctuations. Pairwise segmented regression adjusted for seasonality revealed a significant drop in monthly antibiotic use of 0.401 (SE = 0.089; p<0.001 for Segment 5 compared to Segment 4. Most antibiotic groups showed similar trends to overall use.Use of overall and specific antibiotic groups showed varied patterns and seasonal fluctuations. Containment of rising overall antibiotic use was possible during periods of active guideline dissemination. Wider access through intranet facilitated significant decline in use. Stakeholders and policy

  6. Impact of the zero-markup drug policy on hospitalisation expenditure in western rural China: an interrupted time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Caijun; Shen, Qian; Cai, Wenfang; Zhu, Wenwen; Li, Zongjie; Wu, Lina; Fang, Yu

    2017-02-01

    To assess the long-term effects of the introduction of China's zero-markup drug policy on hospitalisation expenditure and hospitalisation expenditures after reimbursement. An interrupted time series was used to evaluate the impact of the zero-markup drug policy on hospitalisation expenditure and hospitalisation expenditure after reimbursement at primary health institutions in Fufeng County of Shaanxi Province, western China. Two regression models were developed. Monthly average hospitalisation expenditure and monthly average hospitalisation expenditure after reimbursement in primary health institutions were analysed covering the period 2009 through to 2013. For the monthly average hospitalisation expenditure, the increasing trend was slowed down after the introduction of the zero-markup drug policy (coefficient = -16.49, P = 0.009). For the monthly average hospitalisation expenditure after reimbursement, the increasing trend was slowed down after the introduction of the zero-markup drug policy (coefficient = -10.84, P = 0.064), and a significant decrease in the intercept was noted after the second intervention of changes in reimbursement schemes of the new rural cooperative medical insurance (coefficient = -220.64, P markup drug policy in western China. However, hospitalisation expenditure and hospitalisation expenditure after reimbursement were still increasing. More effective policies are needed to prevent these costs from continuing to rise. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Visual time series analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Paul; Hilbert, Astrid

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a platform which supplies an easy-to-handle, interactive, extendable, and fast analysis tool for time series analysis. In contrast to other software suits like Maple, Matlab, or R, which use a command-line-like interface and where the user has to memorize/look-up the appropriate...... commands, our application is select-and-click-driven. It allows to derive many different sequences of deviations for a given time series and to visualize them in different ways in order to judge their expressive power and to reuse the procedure found. For many transformations or model-ts, the user may...... choose between manual and automated parameter selection. The user can dene new transformations and add them to the system. The application contains efficient implementations of advanced and recent techniques for time series analysis including techniques related to extreme value analysis and filtering...

  8. Segmented regression analysis of interrupted time series data to assess outcomes of a South American road traffic alcohol policy change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nistal-Nuño, Beatriz

    2017-09-01

    In Chile, a new law introduced in March 2012 decreased the legal blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limit for driving while impaired from 1 to 0.8 g/l and the legal BAC limit for driving under the influence of alcohol from 0.5 to 0.3 g/l. The goal is to assess the impact of this new law on mortality and morbidity outcomes in Chile. A review of national databases in Chile was conducted from January 2003 to December 2014. Segmented regression analysis of interrupted time series was used for analyzing the data. In a series of multivariable linear regression models, the change in intercept and slope in the monthly incidence rate of traffic deaths and injuries and association with alcohol per 100,000 inhabitants was estimated from pre-intervention to postintervention, while controlling for secular changes. In nested regression models, potential confounding seasonal effects were accounted for. All analyses were performed at a two-sided significance level of 0.05. Immediate level drops in all the monthly rates were observed after the law from the end of the prelaw period in the majority of models and in all the de-seasonalized models, although statistical significance was reached only in the model for injures related to alcohol. After the law, the estimated monthly rate dropped abruptly by -0.869 for injuries related to alcohol and by -0.859 adjusting for seasonality (P < 0.001). Regarding the postlaw long-term trends, it was evidenced a steeper decreasing trend after the law in the models for deaths related to alcohol, although these differences were not statistically significant. A strong evidence of a reduction in traffic injuries related to alcohol was found following the law in Chile. Although insufficient evidence was found of a statistically significant effect for the beneficial effects seen on deaths and overall injuries, potential clinically important effects cannot be ruled out. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd

  9. Time series analysis of the impact of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence among Australian adults, 2001-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wakefield, Melanie A; Coomber, Kerri; Durkin, Sarah J; Scollo, Michelle; Bayly, Megan; Spittal, Matthew J; Simpson, Julie A; Hill, David

    2014-06-01

    To determine the impact of tobacco control policies and mass media campaigns on smoking prevalence in Australian adults. Data for calculating the average monthly prevalence of smoking between January 2001 and June 2011 were obtained via structured interviews of randomly sampled adults aged 18 years or older from Australia's five largest capital cities (monthly mean number of adults interviewed: 2375). The influence on smoking prevalence was estimated for increased tobacco taxes; strengthened smoke-free laws; increased monthly population exposure to televised tobacco control mass media campaigns and pharmaceutical company advertising for nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), using gross ratings points; monthly sales of NRT, bupropion and varenicline; and introduction of graphic health warnings on cigarette packs. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to examine the influence of these interventions on smoking prevalence. The mean smoking prevalence for the study period was 19.9% (standard deviation: 2.0%), with a drop from 23.6% (in January 2001) to 17.3% (in June 2011). The best-fitting model showed that stronger smoke-free laws, tobacco price increases and greater exposure to mass media campaigns independently explained 76% of the decrease in smoking prevalence from February 2002 to June 2011. Increased tobacco taxation, more comprehensive smoke-free laws and increased investment in mass media campaigns played a substantial role in reducing smoking prevalence among Australian adults between 2001 and 2011.

  10. Applied time series analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Woodward, Wayne A; Elliott, Alan C

    2011-01-01

    ""There is scarcely a standard technique that the reader will find left out … this book is highly recommended for those requiring a ready introduction to applicable methods in time series and serves as a useful resource for pedagogical purposes.""-International Statistical Review (2014), 82""Current time series theory for practice is well summarized in this book.""-Emmanuel Parzen, Texas A&M University""What an extraordinary range of topics covered, all very insightfully. I like [the authors'] innovations very much, such as the AR factor table.""-David Findley, U.S. Census Bureau (retired)""…

  11. Time series analysis time series analysis methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, Tata Subba; Rao, C R

    2012-01-01

    The field of statistics not only affects all areas of scientific activity, but also many other matters such as public policy. It is branching rapidly into so many different subjects that a series of handbooks is the only way of comprehensively presenting the various aspects of statistical methodology, applications, and recent developments. The Handbook of Statistics is a series of self-contained reference books. Each volume is devoted to a particular topic in statistics, with Volume 30 dealing with time series. The series is addressed to the entire community of statisticians and scientists in various disciplines who use statistical methodology in their work. At the same time, special emphasis is placed on applications-oriented techniques, with the applied statistician in mind as the primary audience. Comprehensively presents the various aspects of statistical methodology Discusses a wide variety of diverse applications and recent developments Contributors are internationally renowened experts in their respect...

  12. Vocational Assessment. Policy Paper Series: Document 6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stodden, Robert A., Ed.

    This collection of four policy papers on vocational assessment for the handicapped deals with personnel development, interagency coordination, current research and development, and providing individualized assessment services. Discussed in the initial paper on program improvement in vocational assessment for the handicapped are federal legislation…

  13. Realism in Foreign Policy Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wivel, Anders

    2017-01-01

    'Realism in Foreign Policy Analysis' traces how realist thinking on foreign policy has developed over the years and discusses the challenges and opportunities faced by various strands of realism when applied to foreign policy analysis....

  14. Evaluating the impact of abrupt changes in forest policy and management practices on landscape dynamics: analysis of a Landsat image time series in the Atlantic Northern Forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legaard, Kasey R; Sader, Steven A; Simons-Legaard, Erin M

    2015-01-01

    Sustainable forest management is based on functional relationships between management actions, landscape conditions, and forest values. Changes in management practices make it fundamentally more difficult to study these relationships because the impacts of current practices are difficult to disentangle from the persistent influences of past practices. Within the Atlantic Northern Forest of Maine, U.S.A., forest policy and management practices changed abruptly in the early 1990s. During the 1970s-1980s, a severe insect outbreak stimulated salvage clearcutting of large contiguous tracts of spruce-fir forest. Following clearcut regulation in 1991, management practices shifted abruptly to near complete dependence on partial harvesting. Using a time series of Landsat satellite imagery (1973-2010) we assessed cumulative landscape change caused by these very different management regimes. We modeled predominant temporal patterns of harvesting and segmented a large study area into groups of landscape units with similar harvest histories. Time series of landscape composition and configuration metrics averaged within groups revealed differences in landscape dynamics caused by differences in management history. In some groups (24% of landscape units), salvage caused rapid loss and subdivision of intact mature forest. Persistent landscape change was created by large salvage clearcuts (often averaging > 100 ha) and conversion of spruce-fir to deciduous and mixed forest. In groups that were little affected by salvage (56% of landscape units), contemporary partial harvesting caused loss and subdivision of intact mature forest at even greater rates. Patch shape complexity and edge density reached high levels even where cumulative harvest area was relatively low. Contemporary practices introduced more numerous and much smaller patches of stand-replacing disturbance (typically averaging forest ecology.

  15. Empirical evidence in the analysis of the environmental and energy policies of a series of industrialised nations, during the period 1960-1997, using widely employed macroeconomic indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Focacci, Antonio

    2003-01-01

    This article underlines the main implications of the interrelations between the energy problem and that of environmental pollution, using the most widely used macroeconomic indicators in the field of policy analysis. In fact, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission intensity and energy intensity trends may be used to highlight the most important features of economic development over a given time scale in a variety of different countries. The empirical analysis proposed here--covering a time-span of some 40 years in a number of the most highly industrialised nations--seems to be useful if we are to understand the main similarities and differences in the interaction between the energy choices made by different countries and their respective environmental effects. Moreover, by using PPPs, it has been possible to propose a more detailed cross-country analysis for the different international situations

  16. Environmental policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1978-01-01

    The Environmental Policy Analysis Program was established to improve the formation of energy development and environmental policies with due mutual regard for national environmental and energy development needs. As a separate office under the Assistant Secretary for Environment, the program is implemented by the Director and by Offices of Environmental Policy Analysis in the eight DOE multiprogram laboratories. The program provides the Assistant Secretary with information on alternatives for decision making and early warning of environmental problems and considerations that may affect energy policy decisions. The program is intended to be a continuing activity, with its scope determined progressively as issues are defined. During FY-1977 the program focused on information compilation on levels of Pu and other transuranic elements in soils that would render the area unsafe for unlimited use; the impact of water pollution control laws on energy technologies; an analysis of the comparative health risks associated with various energy technologies; and the cost and related impacts on the nuclear industry arising from changes in radiation standards during the past 15 years

  17. Policy Analysis Reaches Midlife

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beryl A. Radin

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The field of policy analysis that exists in the 21st century is quite different from that found earlier phases. The world of the 1960s that gave rise to this field in the US often seems unrelated to the world we experience today. These shifts have occurred as a result of a range of developments – technological changes, changes in the structure and processes of government both internally and globally, new expectations about accountability and transparency, economic and fiscal problems, and increased political and ideological conflict.It is clear globalization has had a significant impact on the field. Shifts in the type of decisionmaking also have created challenges for policy analysts since analysts are now clearly in every nook and cranny in the decisionmaking world. Thus it is relevant to look at the work that they do, the skills that they require, and the background experience that is relevant to them.

  18. Deregulation of sale of over-the-counter drugs outside of pharmacies in the Republic of Korea: interrupted-time-series analysis of outpatient visits before and after the policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chun, Sung-Youn; Park, Hye-Ki; Han, Kyu-Tae; Kim, Woorim; Lee, Hyo-Jung; Park, Eun-Cheol

    2017-07-12

    We evaluated the effectiveness of a policy allowing for the sale of over-the-counter drugs outside of pharmacies by examining its effect on number of monthly outpatient visits for acute upper respiratory infections, dyspepsia, and migraine. We used medical claims data extracted from the Korean National Health Insurance Cohort Database from 2009 to 2013. The Korean National Health Insurance Cohort Database comprises a nationally representative sample of claims - about 2% of the entire population - obtained from the medical record data held by the Korean National Health Insurance Corporation (which has data on the entire nation). The analysis included26,284,706 person-months of 1,042,728 individuals. An interrupted-time series analysis was performed. Outcome measures were monthly outpatient visits for acute upper respiratory infections, dyspepsia, and migraine. To investigate the effect of the policy, we compared the number of monthly visits before and after the policy's implementation in 2012. For acute upper respiratory infections, monthly outpatient visits showed a decreasing trend before the policy (ß = -0.0003);after it, a prompt change and increasing trend in monthly outpatient visits were observed, but these were non-significant. For dyspepsia, the trend was increasing before implementation (ß = -0.0101), but this reversed after implementation(ß = -0.007). For migraine, an increasing trend was observed before the policy (ß = 0.0057). After it, we observed a significant prompt change (ß = -0.0314) but no significant trend. Deregulation of selling over-the-counter medication outside of pharmacies reduced monthly outpatient visits for dyspepsia and migraine symptoms, but not acute upper respiratory infections.

  19. Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by Example

    CERN Document Server

    Bisgaard, Soren

    2011-01-01

    An intuition-based approach enables you to master time series analysis with ease Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by Example provides the fundamental techniques in time series analysis using various examples. By introducing necessary theory through examples that showcase the discussed topics, the authors successfully help readers develop an intuitive understanding of seemingly complicated time series models and their implications. The book presents methodologies for time series analysis in a simplified, example-based approach. Using graphics, the authors discuss each presented example in

  20. The analysis of time series: an introduction

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Chatfield, Christopher

    1989-01-01

    .... A variety of practical examples are given to support the theory. The book covers a wide range of time-series topics, including probability models for time series, Box-Jenkins forecasting, spectral analysis, linear systems and system identification...

  1. A Course in Time Series Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peña, Daniel; Tsay, Ruey S

    2011-01-01

    New statistical methods and future directions of research in time series A Course in Time Series Analysis demonstrates how to build time series models for univariate and multivariate time series data. It brings together material previously available only in the professional literature and presents a unified view of the most advanced procedures available for time series model building. The authors begin with basic concepts in univariate time series, providing an up-to-date presentation of ARIMA models, including the Kalman filter, outlier analysis, automatic methods for building ARIMA models, a

  2. The Effect of Alcohol and Road Traffic Policies on Crash Rates in Botswana, 2004–2011: A Time-Series Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Sebego, Miriam; Naumann, Rebecca B.; Rudd, Rose A.; Voetsch, Karen; Dellinger, Ann M.; Ndlovu, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    In Botswana, increased development and motorization have brought increased road traffic-related death rates. Between 1981 and 2001, the road traffic-related death rate in Botswana more than tripled. The country has taken several steps over the last several years to address the growing burden of road traffic crashes and particularly to address the burden of alcohol-related crashes. This study examines the impact of the implementation of alcohol and road safety-related policies on crash rates, ...

  3. The foundations of modern time series analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Mills, Terence C

    2011-01-01

    This book develops the analysis of Time Series from its formal beginnings in the 1890s through to the publication of Box and Jenkins' watershed publication in 1970, showing how these methods laid the foundations for the modern techniques of Time Series analysis that are in use today.

  4. Analysis of series resonant converter with series-parallel connection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Bor-Ren; Huang, Chien-Lan

    2011-02-01

    In this study, a parallel inductor-inductor-capacitor (LLC) resonant converter series-connected on the primary side and parallel-connected on the secondary side is presented for server power supply systems. Based on series resonant behaviour, the power metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors are turned on at zero voltage switching and the rectifier diodes are turned off at zero current switching. Thus, the switching losses on the power semiconductors are reduced. In the proposed converter, the primary windings of the two LLC converters are connected in series. Thus, the two converters have the same primary currents to ensure that they can supply the balance load current. On the output side, two LLC converters are connected in parallel to share the load current and to reduce the current stress on the secondary windings and the rectifier diodes. In this article, the principle of operation, steady-state analysis and design considerations of the proposed converter are provided and discussed. Experiments with a laboratory prototype with a 24 V/21 A output for server power supply were performed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed converter.

  5. Monetary Policy Analysis in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Vesna

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on analysing monetary policy in Serbia. The National Bank of Serbia chose inflation targeting, which sets price stability as the main objective of monetary policy. To achieve this goal, the central bank uses different monetary policy instruments which analysis can provide us with the understanding of the main directions of their actions but also of the limitations of its application. Only through improvement of both instruments and monetary policy the central bank will create a better foundation for achieving monetary stability. In addition, the implementation of exchange rate policy is entrusted to the National Bank of Serbia, as the main regulator of the financial system. A mere use of managed floating exchange rate, as the chosen exchange rate regime, is an appropriate solution in the current economic circumstances and in accordance with the desired objective of monetary policy.

  6. Analysis of Heavy-Tailed Time Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xie, Xiaolei

    This thesis is about analysis of heavy-tailed time series. We discuss tail properties of real-world equity return series and investigate the possibility that a single tail index is shared by all return series of actively traded equities in a market. Conditions for this hypothesis to be true...... are identified. We study the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of sample covariance and sample auto-covariance matrices of multivariate heavy-tailed time series, and particularly for time series with very high dimensions. Asymptotic approximations of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of such matrices are found...... and expressed in terms of the parameters of the dependence structure, among others. Furthermore, we study an importance sampling method for estimating rare-event probabilities of multivariate heavy-tailed time series generated by matrix recursion. We show that the proposed algorithm is efficient in the sense...

  7. Applied time series analysis and innovative computing

    CERN Document Server

    Ao, Sio-Iong

    2010-01-01

    This text is a systematic, state-of-the-art introduction to the use of innovative computing paradigms as an investigative tool for applications in time series analysis. It includes frontier case studies based on recent research.

  8. Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control

    CERN Document Server

    Box, George E P; Reinsel, Gregory C

    2011-01-01

    A modernized new edition of one of the most trusted books on time series analysis. Since publication of the first edition in 1970, Time Series Analysis has served as one of the most influential and prominent works on the subject. This new edition maintains its balanced presentation of the tools for modeling and analyzing time series and also introduces the latest developments that have occurred n the field over the past decade through applications from areas such as business, finance, and engineering. The Fourth Edition provides a clearly written exploration of the key methods for building, cl

  9. Networks and Bargaining in Policy Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bogason, Peter

    2006-01-01

    A duscussion of the fight between proponents of rationalistic policy analysis and more political interaction models for policy analysis. The latter group is the foundation for the many network models of policy analysis of today.......A duscussion of the fight between proponents of rationalistic policy analysis and more political interaction models for policy analysis. The latter group is the foundation for the many network models of policy analysis of today....

  10. Visibility Graph Based Time Series Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen, Mutua; Gu, Changgui; Yang, Huijie

    2015-01-01

    Network based time series analysis has made considerable achievements in the recent years. By mapping mono/multivariate time series into networks, one can investigate both it's microscopic and macroscopic behaviors. However, most proposed approaches lead to the construction of static networks consequently providing limited information on evolutionary behaviors. In the present paper we propose a method called visibility graph based time series analysis, in which series segments are mapped to visibility graphs as being descriptions of the corresponding states and the successively occurring states are linked. This procedure converts a time series to a temporal network and at the same time a network of networks. Findings from empirical records for stock markets in USA (S&P500 and Nasdaq) and artificial series generated by means of fractional Gaussian motions show that the method can provide us rich information benefiting short-term and long-term predictions. Theoretically, we propose a method to investigate time series from the viewpoint of network of networks.

  11. Visibility Graph Based Time Series Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mutua Stephen

    Full Text Available Network based time series analysis has made considerable achievements in the recent years. By mapping mono/multivariate time series into networks, one can investigate both it's microscopic and macroscopic behaviors. However, most proposed approaches lead to the construction of static networks consequently providing limited information on evolutionary behaviors. In the present paper we propose a method called visibility graph based time series analysis, in which series segments are mapped to visibility graphs as being descriptions of the corresponding states and the successively occurring states are linked. This procedure converts a time series to a temporal network and at the same time a network of networks. Findings from empirical records for stock markets in USA (S&P500 and Nasdaq and artificial series generated by means of fractional Gaussian motions show that the method can provide us rich information benefiting short-term and long-term predictions. Theoretically, we propose a method to investigate time series from the viewpoint of network of networks.

  12. Relating Actor Analysis Methods to Policy Problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Lei, T.E.

    2009-01-01

    For a policy analyst the policy problem is the starting point for the policy analysis process. During this process the policy analyst structures the policy problem and makes a choice for an appropriate set of methods or techniques to analyze the problem (Goeller 1984). The methods of the policy

  13. Allan deviation analysis of financial return series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Pérez, R.

    2012-05-01

    We perform a scaling analysis for the return series of different financial assets applying the Allan deviation (ADEV), which is used in the time and frequency metrology to characterize quantitatively the stability of frequency standards since it has demonstrated to be a robust quantity to analyze fluctuations of non-stationary time series for different observation intervals. The data used are opening price daily series for assets from different markets during a time span of around ten years. We found that the ADEV results for the return series at short scales resemble those expected for an uncorrelated series, consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. On the other hand, the ADEV results for absolute return series for short scales (first one or two decades) decrease following approximately a scaling relation up to a point that is different for almost each asset, after which the ADEV deviates from scaling, which suggests that the presence of clustering, long-range dependence and non-stationarity signatures in the series drive the results for large observation intervals.

  14. Introduction to time series analysis and forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Montgomery, Douglas C; Kulahci, Murat

    2008-01-01

    An accessible introduction to the most current thinking in and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data. Analyzing time-oriented data and forecasting are among the most important problems that analysts face across many fields, ranging from finance and economics to production operations and the natural sciences. As a result, there is a widespread need for large groups of people in a variety of fields to understand the basic concepts of time series analysis and forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting presents the time series analysis branch of applied statistics as the underlying methodology for developing practical forecasts, and it also bridges the gap between theory and practice by equipping readers with the tools needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct useful, short- to medium-term, statistically based forecasts.

  15. Entropic Analysis of Electromyography Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Miron; Sung, Paul

    2005-03-01

    We are in the process of assessing the effectiveness of fractal and entropic measures for the diagnostic of low back pain from surface electromyography (EMG) time series. Surface electromyography (EMG) is used to assess patients with low back pain. In a typical EMG measurement, the voltage is measured every millisecond. We observed back muscle fatiguing during one minute, which results in a time series with 60,000 entries. We characterize the complexity of time series by computing the Shannon entropy time dependence. The analysis of the time series from different relevant muscles from healthy and low back pain (LBP) individuals provides evidence that the level of variability of back muscle activities is much larger for healthy individuals than for individuals with LBP. In general the time dependence of the entropy shows a crossover from a diffusive regime to a regime characterized by long time correlations (self organization) at about 0.01s.

  16. Introduction to time series analysis and forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Montgomery, Douglas C; Kulahci, Murat

    2015-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition ""…[t]he book is great for readers who need to apply the methods and models presented but have little background in mathematics and statistics."" -MAA Reviews Thoroughly updated throughout, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition presents the underlying theories of time series analysis that are needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct real-world short- to medium-term statistical forecasts.    Authored by highly-experienced academics and professionals in engineering statistics, the Second Edition features discussions on both

  17. Understanding Canada's International Trade Policy. "Understanding Economics" Series No. 4.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornell, Peter M.

    Written for secondary school Canadian students, the document examines Canada's international trade policy. It is arranged in three sections. Part I discusses the affect of Canada's trade policy on the individual citizen. Tariffs and non-tariff barriers to trade such as import licenses, preferential purchasing agreements, health and safety…

  18. Nonlinear Time Series Analysis via Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volná, Eva; Janošek, Michal; Kocian, Václav; Kotyrba, Martin

    This article deals with a time series analysis based on neural networks in order to make an effective forex market [Moore and Roche, J. Int. Econ. 58, 387-411 (2002)] pattern recognition. Our goal is to find and recognize important patterns which repeatedly appear in the market history to adapt our trading system behaviour based on them.

  19. Lecture notes for Advanced Time Series Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Holst, Jan

    1997-01-01

    A first version of this notes was used at the lectures in Grenoble, and they are now extended and improved (together with Jan Holst), and used in Ph.D. courses on Advanced Time Series Analysis at IMM and at the Department of Mathematical Statistics, University of Lund, 1994, 1997, ...

  20. Transformation of Croatian Disabled Policy: Analysis of Policy Goals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Petek

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is based on the idea of transformation of the policy-making mode of Croatian disabled policy, from the medical model, through the social model to the human rights model. The paper highlights 7 elements according to which these models differ, and which are structured into categories of problem-definition, goal-determination and then implementation of disabled policy. The analysis is focused on the goals of Croatian disabled policy, and is based on an interdisciplinary research project of political science, special education and social work. Empirical data were collected by document analysis, by interviewing relevant policy actors and by a survey with the members of representative bodies on all government levels. With the discourse analysis of documents, open coding of interviews and statistical analysis of data collected in the survey, the paper attempts, through the indicator of activity of persons with disability, to answer to what extent Croatian disabled policy is transformed into human rights policy.

  1. A taylor series approach to survival analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brodsky, J.B.; Groer, P.G.

    1984-09-01

    A method of survival analysis using hazard functions is developed. The method uses the well known mathematical theory for Taylor Series. Hypothesis tests of the adequacy of many statistical models, including proportional hazards and linear and/or quadratic dose responses, are obtained. A partial analysis of leukemia mortality in the Life Span Study cohort is used as an example. Furthermore, a relatively robust estimation procedure for the proportional hazards model is proposed. (author)

  2. Time series analysis of barometric pressure data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    La Rocca, Paola; Riggi, Francesco; Riggi, Daniele

    2010-01-01

    Time series of atmospheric pressure data, collected over a period of several years, were analysed to provide undergraduate students with educational examples of application of simple statistical methods of analysis. In addition to basic methods for the analysis of periodicities, a comparison of two forecast models, one based on autoregression algorithms, and the other making use of an artificial neural network, was made. Results show that the application of artificial neural networks may give slightly better results compared to traditional methods.

  3. The Statistical Analysis of Time Series

    CERN Document Server

    Anderson, T W

    2011-01-01

    The Wiley Classics Library consists of selected books that have become recognized classics in their respective fields. With these new unabridged and inexpensive editions, Wiley hopes to extend the life of these important works by making them available to future generations of mathematicians and scientists. Currently available in the Series: T. W. Anderson Statistical Analysis of Time Series T. S. Arthanari & Yadolah Dodge Mathematical Programming in Statistics Emil Artin Geometric Algebra Norman T. J. Bailey The Elements of Stochastic Processes with Applications to the Natural Sciences George

  4. Fourier analysis of time series an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Bloomfield, Peter

    2000-01-01

    A new, revised edition of a yet unrivaled work on frequency domain analysis Long recognized for his unique focus on frequency domain methods for the analysis of time series data as well as for his applied, easy-to-understand approach, Peter Bloomfield brings his well-known 1976 work thoroughly up to date. With a minimum of mathematics and an engaging, highly rewarding style, Bloomfield provides in-depth discussions of harmonic regression, harmonic analysis, complex demodulation, and spectrum analysis. All methods are clearly illustrated using examples of specific data sets, while ample

  5. Nonlinear time series analysis with R

    CERN Document Server

    Huffaker, Ray; Rosa, Rodolfo

    2017-01-01

    In the process of data analysis, the investigator is often facing highly-volatile and random-appearing observed data. A vast body of literature shows that the assumption of underlying stochastic processes was not necessarily representing the nature of the processes under investigation and, when other tools were used, deterministic features emerged. Non Linear Time Series Analysis (NLTS) allows researchers to test whether observed volatility conceals systematic non linear behavior, and to rigorously characterize governing dynamics. Behavioral patterns detected by non linear time series analysis, along with scientific principles and other expert information, guide the specification of mechanistic models that serve to explain real-world behavior rather than merely reproducing it. Often there is a misconception regarding the complexity of the level of mathematics needed to understand and utilize the tools of NLTS (for instance Chaos theory). However, mathematics used in NLTS is much simpler than many other subjec...

  6. Institutional analysis for energy policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morris, F.A.; Cole, R.J.

    1980-07-01

    This report summarizes principles, techniques, and other information for doing institutional analyses in the area of energy policy. The report was prepared to support DOE's Regional Issues Identification and Assessment (RIIA) program. RIIA identifies environmental, health, safety, socioeconomic, and institutional issues that could accompany hypothetical future scenarios for energy consumption and production on a regional basis. Chapter 1 provides some theoretical grounding in institutional analysis. Chapter 2 provides information on constructing institutional maps of the processes for bringing on line energy technologies and facilities contemplated in RIIA scenarios. Chapter 3 assesses the institutional constraints, opportunities, and impacts that affect whether these technologies and facilities would in fact be developed. Chapters 4 and 5 show how institutional analysis can support use of exercises such as RIIA in planning institutional change and making energy policy choices.

  7. Time-Series Analysis: A Cautionary Tale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damadeo, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Time-series analysis has often been a useful tool in atmospheric science for deriving long-term trends in various atmospherically important parameters (e.g., temperature or the concentration of trace gas species). In particular, time-series analysis has been repeatedly applied to satellite datasets in order to derive the long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, which is a critical atmospheric constituent. However, many of the potential pitfalls relating to the non-uniform sampling of the datasets were often ignored and the results presented by the scientific community have been unknowingly biased. A newly developed and more robust application of this technique is applied to the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II version 7.0 ozone dataset and the previous biases and newly derived trends are presented.

  8. 78 FR 60763 - Clarification on Fireworks Policy Regarding Approvals or Certifications for Firework Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-02

    ... 173 [Docket No. PHMSA-2013-0205; Notice No. 13-14] Clarification on Fireworks Policy Regarding Approvals or Certifications for Firework Series AGENCY: Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety... applications for firework device series. PHMSA has required separate applications for each individual firework...

  9. The Negro in the Furniture Industry. The Racial Policies of American Industry Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulmer, William E.

    This is the twenty-eighth of a series of studies conducted to determine variances in industrial employment practices of Negroes and to develop appropriate hiring policies. This particular study sought to examine current racial employment policies in the furniture industry within the context of the industry's structure and history. Interviews with…

  10. Examining Key Issues Underlying the Audit Commission Reports on SEN Policy Paper 1 (5th Series)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norwich, Brahm; Beek, Chris; Richardson, Penny; Gray, Peter

    2004-01-01

    This book is the first publication in the fifth series of seminars organised by the SEN Policy Options Steering Group to examine policy issues to do with special educational needs. The aim of the seminar was to examine in depth several underlying issues raised by the recent Audit Commission Reports on special educational needs. The seminar…

  11. Foreign Policy: Approaches, Levels Of Analysis, Dimensions

    OpenAIRE

    Nina Šoljan

    2012-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of key issues related to foreign policy and foreign policy theories in the wider context of political science. Discussing the origins and development of foreign policy analysis (FPA), as well as scholarly work produced over time, it argues that today FPA encompasses a variety of theoretical approaches, models and tools. These share the understanding that foreign policy outputs cannot be fully explained if analysis is confined to the systemic level. Furthermore,...

  12. Methodology for Participatory Policy Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geurts, J.L.A.; Joldersma, F.

    2001-01-01

    In the course of time it has become clear that policy analysts who use traditional formal modeling techniques have limited impact on policy making regarding complex policy problems. These kinds of problems require the analyst to combine scientific insights with subjective knowledge resources and to

  13. Evaluation and Policy Analysis: A Communicative Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cynthia Wallat

    1997-07-01

    Full Text Available A major challenge for the next generation of students of human development is to help shape the paradigms by which we analyze and evaluate public policies for children and families. Advocates of building research and policy connections point to health care and stress experiences across home, school, and community as critical policy issues that expand the scope of contexts and outcomes studied. At a minimum, development researchers and practitioners will need to be well versed in available methods of inquiry; they will need to be "methodologically multilingual" when conducting evaluation and policy analysis, producing reports, and reporting their interpretations to consumer and policy audiences. This article suggests how traditional approaches to policy inquiry can be reconsidered in light of these research inquiry and communicative skills needed by all policy researchers. A fifteen year review of both policy and discourse processes research is presented to suggest ways to conduct policy studies within a communicative framework.

  14. Highly comparative time-series analysis: the empirical structure of time series and their methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulcher, Ben D; Little, Max A; Jones, Nick S

    2013-06-06

    The process of collecting and organizing sets of observations represents a common theme throughout the history of science. However, despite the ubiquity of scientists measuring, recording and analysing the dynamics of different processes, an extensive organization of scientific time-series data and analysis methods has never been performed. Addressing this, annotated collections of over 35 000 real-world and model-generated time series, and over 9000 time-series analysis algorithms are analysed in this work. We introduce reduced representations of both time series, in terms of their properties measured by diverse scientific methods, and of time-series analysis methods, in terms of their behaviour on empirical time series, and use them to organize these interdisciplinary resources. This new approach to comparing across diverse scientific data and methods allows us to organize time-series datasets automatically according to their properties, retrieve alternatives to particular analysis methods developed in other scientific disciplines and automate the selection of useful methods for time-series classification and regression tasks. The broad scientific utility of these tools is demonstrated on datasets of electroencephalograms, self-affine time series, heartbeat intervals, speech signals and others, in each case contributing novel analysis techniques to the existing literature. Highly comparative techniques that compare across an interdisciplinary literature can thus be used to guide more focused research in time-series analysis for applications across the scientific disciplines.

  15. Time series analysis of temporal networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sikdar, Sandipan; Ganguly, Niloy; Mukherjee, Animesh

    2016-01-01

    A common but an important feature of all real-world networks is that they are temporal in nature, i.e., the network structure changes over time. Due to this dynamic nature, it becomes difficult to propose suitable growth models that can explain the various important characteristic properties of these networks. In fact, in many application oriented studies only knowing these properties is sufficient. For instance, if one wishes to launch a targeted attack on a network, this can be done even without the knowledge of the full network structure; rather an estimate of some of the properties is sufficient enough to launch the attack. We, in this paper show that even if the network structure at a future time point is not available one can still manage to estimate its properties. We propose a novel method to map a temporal network to a set of time series instances, analyze them and using a standard forecast model of time series, try to predict the properties of a temporal network at a later time instance. To our aim, we consider eight properties such as number of active nodes, average degree, clustering coefficient etc. and apply our prediction framework on them. We mainly focus on the temporal network of human face-to-face contacts and observe that it represents a stochastic process with memory that can be modeled as Auto-Regressive-Integrated-Moving-Average (ARIMA). We use cross validation techniques to find the percentage accuracy of our predictions. An important observation is that the frequency domain properties of the time series obtained from spectrogram analysis could be used to refine the prediction framework by identifying beforehand the cases where the error in prediction is likely to be high. This leads to an improvement of 7.96% (for error level ≤20%) in prediction accuracy on an average across all datasets. As an application we show how such prediction scheme can be used to launch targeted attacks on temporal networks. Contribution to the Topical Issue

  16. Monetary-Fiscal-Trade Policy and Economic Growth in Pakistan: Time Series Empirical Investigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Tehseen Jawaid

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study empirically examines the effect of monetary, fiscal and trade policy on economic growth in Pakistan using annual time series data from 1981 to 2009. Money supply, government expenditure and trade openness are used as proxies of monetary, fiscal and trade policy respectively. Cointegration and error correction model indicate the existence of positive significant long run and short run relationship of monetary and fiscal policy with economic growth. Result also indicates that monetary policy is more effective than fiscal policy in Pakistan. In contrast, trade policy has insignificant effect on economic growth both in the short run and in the long run. In light of the findings, it is suggested that the policy makers should focus more on monetary policy in order to ensure economic growth in the country. It is also recommended that further research should be conducted to find out such components of exports and imports which lead to the ineffectiveness of trade policy to enhance economic growth in Pakistan.

  17. Visibility graph analysis on quarterly macroeconomic series of China based on complex network theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Na; Li, Dong; Wang, Qiwen

    2012-12-01

    The visibility graph approach and complex network theory provide a new insight into time series analysis. The inheritance of the visibility graph from the original time series was further explored in the paper. We found that degree distributions of visibility graphs extracted from Pseudo Brownian Motion series obtained by the Frequency Domain algorithm exhibit exponential behaviors, in which the exponential exponent is a binomial function of the Hurst index inherited in the time series. Our simulations presented that the quantitative relations between the Hurst indexes and the exponents of degree distribution function are different for different series and the visibility graph inherits some important features of the original time series. Further, we convert some quarterly macroeconomic series including the growth rates of value-added of three industry series and the growth rates of Gross Domestic Product series of China to graphs by the visibility algorithm and explore the topological properties of graphs associated from the four macroeconomic series, namely, the degree distribution and correlations, the clustering coefficient, the average path length, and community structure. Based on complex network analysis we find degree distributions of associated networks from the growth rates of value-added of three industry series are almost exponential and the degree distributions of associated networks from the growth rates of GDP series are scale free. We also discussed the assortativity and disassortativity of the four associated networks as they are related to the evolutionary process of the original macroeconomic series. All the constructed networks have “small-world” features. The community structures of associated networks suggest dynamic changes of the original macroeconomic series. We also detected the relationship among government policy changes, community structures of associated networks and macroeconomic dynamics. We find great influences of government

  18. Policy analysis: palliative care in Ireland.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Larkin, P

    2014-03-01

    Palliative care for patients with advanced illness is a subject of growing importance in health services, policy and research. In 2001 Ireland became one of the first nations to publish a dedicated national palliative care policy. This paper uses the \\'policy analysis triangle\\' as a framework to examine what the policy entailed, where the key ideas originated, why the policy process was activated, who were the key actors, and what were the main consequences. Although palliative care provision expanded following publication, priorities that were unaddressed or not fully embraced on the national policy agenda are identified. The factors underlying areas of non-fulfilment of policy are then discussed. In particular, the analysis highlights that policy initiatives in a relatively new field of healthcare face a trade-off between ambition and feasibility. Key policy goals could not be realised given the large resource commitments required; the competition for resources from other, better-established healthcare sectors; and challenges in expanding workforce and capacity. Additionally, the inherently cross-sectoral nature of palliative care complicated the co-ordination of support for the policy. Policy initiatives in emerging fields such as palliative care should address carefully feasibility and support in their conception and implementation.

  19. Policy analysis of multi-actor systems

    CERN Document Server

    Enserink, Bert; Kwakkel, Jan; Thissen, Wil; Koppenjan, Joop; Bots, Pieter

    2010-01-01

    Policy analysts love solving complex problems. Their favorite problems are not just technically complex but also characterized by the presence of many different social actors that hold conflicting interests, objectives, and perceptions and act strategically to get the best out of a problem situation. This book offers guidance for policy analysts who want to assess if and how their analysis could be of help, based on the premise that problem formulation is the cornerstone in addressing complex problems. This book positions policy analysis within the theories on processes of policy making, and f

  20. Nonparametric factor analysis of time series

    OpenAIRE

    Rodríguez-Poo, Juan M.; Linton, Oliver Bruce

    1998-01-01

    We introduce a nonparametric smoothing procedure for nonparametric factor analaysis of multivariate time series. The asymptotic properties of the proposed procedures are derived. We present an application based on the residuals from the Fair macromodel.

  1. DIY Solar Market Analysis Webinar Series: Solar Resource and Technical

    Science.gov (United States)

    Series: Solar Resource and Technical Potential DIY Solar Market Analysis Webinar Series: Solar Resource and Technical Potential Wednesday, June 11, 2014 As part of a Do-It-Yourself Solar Market Analysis Potential | State, Local, and Tribal Governments | NREL DIY Solar Market Analysis Webinar

  2. What marketing scholars should know about time series analysis : time series applications in marketing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horváth, Csilla; Kornelis, Marcel; Leeflang, Peter S.H.

    2002-01-01

    In this review, we give a comprehensive summary of time series techniques in marketing, and discuss a variety of time series analysis (TSA) techniques and models. We classify them in the sets (i) univariate TSA, (ii) multivariate TSA, and (iii) multiple TSA. We provide relevant marketing

  3. Summary, analysis, and policy recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    Four policy recommendations are presented that would provide the foundations for a long-term transportation policy for the US while gradually reducing the threats from petroleum-powered vehicles to the climate and air quality. They include: improvements in new-vehicle fuel efficiency; increased transportation system efficiency; development of non-fossil energy sources for transportation; and reduction of other greenhouse gas emissions. In the future, manufacturers will be under pressure to develop petroleum-powered vehicles that are cleaner, safer, and more fuel efficient; at the same time, they will need to develop new kinds of vehicles that will emit no pollutants. This pressure will come not from market forces but from public policy and will require large amounts of capital

  4. Time series analysis in the social sciences the fundamentals

    CERN Document Server

    Shin, Youseop

    2017-01-01

    Times Series Analysis in the Social Sciences is a practical and highly readable introduction written exclusively for students and researchers whose mathematical background is limited to basic algebra. The book focuses on fundamental elements of time series analysis that social scientists need to understand so they can employ time series analysis for their research and practice. Through step-by-step explanations and using monthly violent crime rates as case studies, this book explains univariate time series from the preliminary visual analysis through the modeling of seasonality, trends, and re

  5. Optimization of series-parallel multi-state systems under maintenance policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nourelfath, Mustapha; Ait-Kadi, Daoud

    2007-01-01

    In the redundancy optimization problem, the design goal is achieved by discrete choices made from components available in the market. In this paper, the problem is to find, under reliability constraints, the minimal cost configuration of a multi-state series-parallel system, which is subject to a specified maintenance policy. The number of maintenance teams is less than the number of repairable components, and a maintenance policy specifies the priorities between the system components. To take into account the dependencies resulting from the sharing of maintenance teams, the universal generating function approach is coupled with a Markov model. The resulting optimization approach has the advantage of being mainly analytical

  6. Income Distribution: Analysis and Policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Tinbergen (Jan)

    1975-01-01

    textabstractIn German: Einkommensverteilung: auf dem Weg zu einer neuen Einkommensgerechtigkeit, Gabler Verlag, Wiesbaden, 1978, 172 p. In Spanish: La Distribución del Ingreso, El Manual Moderno, Mexico, 1979, 154 p. In Italian: La Distribuzione del Reddito, Series ‘Biblioteca Moderna di Economia’

  7. TIME SERIES ANALYSIS USING A UNIQUE MODEL OF TRANSFORMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Klepac

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available REFII1 model is an authorial mathematical model for time series data mining. The main purpose of that model is to automate time series analysis, through a unique transformation model of time series. An advantage of this approach of time series analysis is the linkage of different methods for time series analysis, linking traditional data mining tools in time series, and constructing new algorithms for analyzing time series. It is worth mentioning that REFII model is not a closed system, which means that we have a finite set of methods. At first, this is a model for transformation of values of time series, which prepares data used by different sets of methods based on the same model of transformation in a domain of problem space. REFII model gives a new approach in time series analysis based on a unique model of transformation, which is a base for all kind of time series analysis. The advantage of REFII model is its possible application in many different areas such as finance, medicine, voice recognition, face recognition and text mining.

  8. Mathematical foundations of time series analysis a concise introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Beran, Jan

    2017-01-01

    This book provides a concise introduction to the mathematical foundations of time series analysis, with an emphasis on mathematical clarity. The text is reduced to the essential logical core, mostly using the symbolic language of mathematics, thus enabling readers to very quickly grasp the essential reasoning behind time series analysis. It appeals to anybody wanting to understand time series in a precise, mathematical manner. It is suitable for graduate courses in time series analysis but is equally useful as a reference work for students and researchers alike.

  9. Interrupted time-series analysis: studying trends in neurosurgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Ricky H; Smieliauskas, Fabrice; Pan, I-Wen; Lam, Sandi K

    2015-12-01

    OBJECT Neurosurgery studies traditionally have evaluated the effects of interventions on health care outcomes by studying overall changes in measured outcomes over time. Yet, this type of linear analysis is limited due to lack of consideration of the trend's effects both pre- and postintervention and the potential for confounding influences. The aim of this study was to illustrate interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) as applied to an example in the neurosurgical literature and highlight ITSA's potential for future applications. METHODS The methods used in previous neurosurgical studies were analyzed and then compared with the methodology of ITSA. RESULTS The ITSA method was identified in the neurosurgical literature as an important technique for isolating the effect of an intervention (such as a policy change or a quality and safety initiative) on a health outcome independent of other factors driving trends in the outcome. The authors determined that ITSA allows for analysis of the intervention's immediate impact on outcome level and on subsequent trends and enables a more careful measure of the causal effects of interventions on health care outcomes. CONCLUSIONS ITSA represents a significant improvement over traditional observational study designs in quantifying the impact of an intervention. ITSA is a useful statistical procedure to understand, consider, and implement as the field of neurosurgery evolves in sophistication in big-data analytics, economics, and health services research.

  10. Public Policies Analysis and the Prince System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behxhet Brajshori

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Public Policies present governmental sectorial policies and according to several scholars those are defined based on "what does the Government do". In fact, those are mandatory state's principles for the Government that aims the implementation of the strategy, objectives and Government's goals in the function of its promises' fulfilment towards the electors and all of the country's citizens. Public Policies Analysis has to do with the monitoring of government's agenda which directly can influence on a specific community. The idea of public policies analysis in linked with the need that the Government through statistical data has to prove what is being worked. Public Policies Analysis evolves in terms of design, implementation and public policies' effects. One of the methods for predicting the probability that a specifi c public policy will be implemented or not, is the Prince System. The Prince System, actually, presents a technique for assessing the relative support or opposition to a particular policy from individuals, groups or organizations.

  11. MICROECONOMIC ANALYSIS IN COMPETITION POLICY

    OpenAIRE

    Paul Prisecaru

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents some of the most important microeconomic tools used in assessing antitrust and merger cases by the competition authorities. By explaining the way that microeconomic concepts like “market power”, “critical loss” or “price elasticity of demand” are used by the modern competition policy, the microeconomics scholar can get a practical perspective on the way that these concepts fit into the more general concept of “competition policy”. Extensive economic research has shown what...

  12. MICROECONOMIC ANALYSIS IN COMPETITION POLICY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Prisecaru

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents some of the most important microeconomic tools used in assessing antitrust and merger cases by the competition authorities. By explaining the way that microeconomic concepts like “market power”, “critical loss” or “price elasticity of demand” are used by the modern competition policy, the microeconomics scholar can get a practical perspective on the way that these concepts fit into the more general concept of “competition policy”. Extensive economic research has shown what are the market forces and economic factors that determine how cartels, which are at the core of antitrust policy, are established and sustained over time. One of the most important of these factors is the markets exposure to innovation, especially disruptive innovation. In these markets, the paradox, from a competition policy perspective, can be considered the fact that collusion is one of the least important concerns, due to the specific elements that determine the nature of competition.Instead, the main anticompetitive risk in the markets exposed to intensive innovation is unilateral conduct by which dominant incumbents can exclude competitors.

  13. Introduction: Discourse Analysis and Policy Discourse

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.R. Gasper (Des); R.J. Apthorpe (Raymond)

    1996-01-01

    markdownabstractAbstract: As introduction to a collection on policy discourses and patterns of argumentation in international development, this paper clarifies different meanings of `discourse' and 'discourse analysis', including as applied in development studies, and explains why effective

  14. Time Series Analysis Using Geometric Template Matching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Jordan; Mannor, Shie; Pineau, Joelle; Precup, Doina

    2013-03-01

    We present a novel framework for analyzing univariate time series data. At the heart of the approach is a versatile algorithm for measuring the similarity of two segments of time series called geometric template matching (GeTeM). First, we use GeTeM to compute a similarity measure for clustering and nearest-neighbor classification. Next, we present a semi-supervised learning algorithm that uses the similarity measure with hierarchical clustering in order to improve classification performance when unlabeled training data are available. Finally, we present a boosting framework called TDEBOOST, which uses an ensemble of GeTeM classifiers. TDEBOOST augments the traditional boosting approach with an additional step in which the features used as inputs to the classifier are adapted at each step to improve the training error. We empirically evaluate the proposed approaches on several datasets, such as accelerometer data collected from wearable sensors and ECG data.

  15. Growth And Export Expansion In Mauritius - A Time Series Analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Growth And Export Expansion In Mauritius - A Time Series Analysis. ... RV Sannassee, R Pearce ... Using Granger Causality tests, the short-run analysis results revealed that there is significant reciprocal causality between real export earnings ...

  16. Stochastic time series analysis of hydrology data for water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathish, S.; Khadar Babu, S. K.

    2017-11-01

    The prediction to current publication of stochastic time series analysis in hydrology and seasonal stage. The different statistical tests for predicting the hydrology time series on Thomas-Fiering model. The hydrology time series of flood flow have accept a great deal of consideration worldwide. The concentration of stochastic process areas of time series analysis method are expanding with develop concerns about seasonal periods and global warming. The recent trend by the researchers for testing seasonal periods in the hydrologic flowseries using stochastic process on Thomas-Fiering model. The present article proposed to predict the seasonal periods in hydrology using Thomas-Fiering model.

  17. Economic Analysis in Series-Distillation Desalination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirna Rahmah Lubis

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The ability to produce potable water economically is the primary purpose of seawater desalination research. Reverse osmosis (RO and multi-stage flash (MSF cost more than potable water produced from fresh water resources. Therefore, this research investigates a high-efficiency mechanical vapor-compression distillation system that employs an improved water flow arrangement. The incoming salt concentration was 0.15% salt for brackish water and 3.5% salt for seawater, whereas the outgoing salt concentration was 1.5% and 7%, respectively. Distillation was performed at 439 K and 722 kPa for both brackish water feed and seawater feed. Water costs of the various conditions were calculated for brackish water and seawater feeds using optimum conditions considered as 25 and 20 stages, respectively. For brackish water at a temperature difference of 0.96 K, the energy requirement is 2.0 kWh/m3. At this condition, the estimated water cost is $0.39/m3 achieved with 10,000,000 gal/day distillate, 30-year bond, 5% interest rate, and $0.05/kWh electricity. For seawater at a temperature difference of 0.44 K, the energy requirement is 3.97 kWh/m3 and the estimated water cost is $0.61/m3. Greater efficiency of the vapor compression system is achieved by connecting multiple evaporators in series, rather than the traditional parallel arrangement. The efficiency results from the gradual increase of salinity in each stage of the series arrangement in comparison to parallel. Calculations using various temperature differences between boiling brine and condensing steam show the series arrangement has the greatest improvement at lower temperature differences. Keywords: desalination, dropwise condensation, mechanical-vapor compression

  18. Challenge from Without: Analysis of the Recommendations Advanced by Five National Education Task Forces and Their Policy Implications for Precollege and Higher Education. The Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government Special Report Series Number 4.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemmerer, Frances; And Others

    This report includes expanded versions of two papers by Frances Kemmerer and Alan P. Wagner which were first presented at a 1983 working seminar on the recommendations of five national educational task forces and their implications for New York State educational policy. Included also is a major additional paper contributed by W. Paul Vogt. The…

  19. Analysis of JET ELMy time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zvejnieks, G.; Kuzovkov, V.N.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: Achievement of the planned operational regime in the next generation tokamaks (such as ITER) still faces principal problems. One of the main challenges is obtaining the control of edge localized modes (ELMs), which should lead to both long plasma pulse times and reasonable divertor life time. In order to control ELMs the hypothesis was proposed by Degeling [1] that ELMs exhibit features of chaotic dynamics and thus a standard chaos control methods might be applicable. However, our findings which are based on the nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) model contradict this hypothesis for JET ELMy time-series. In turn, it means that ELM behavior is of a relaxation or random type. These conclusions coincide with our previous results obtained for ASDEX Upgrade time series [2]. [1] A.W. Degeling, Y.R. Martin, P.E. Bak, J. B.Lister, and X. Llobet, Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 43, 1671 (2001). [2] G. Zvejnieks, V.N. Kuzovkov, O. Dumbrajs, A.W. Degeling, W. Suttrop, H. Urano, and H. Zohm, Physics of Plasmas 11, 5658 (2004)

  20. A Policy Analysis Perspective on Ecological Restoration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susan Baker

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Using a simple stages model of the policy process, we explore the politics of ecological restoration using an array of examples drawn across sector, different size and scale, and from different countries. A policy analysis perspective reveals how, at both the program and project levels, ecological restoration operates within a complex and dynamic interplay between technical decision making, ideologies, and interest politics. Viewed through the stages model, restoration policy involves negotiating nature across stages in the policy making process, including agenda setting, policy formulation, implementation, and evaluation. The stages model is a useful heuristic devise; however, this linear model assumes that policy makers approach the issue rationally. In practice, ecological restoration policy takes place in the context of different distributions of power between the various public and private actors involved at the different stages of restoration policy making. This allows us to reiterate the point that ecological restoration is best seen not only as a technical task but as a social and political project.

  1. Tool Wear Monitoring Using Time Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Dong Yeul; Ohara, Yasuhiro; Tamaki, Haruo; Suga, Masanobu

    A tool wear monitoring approach considering the nonlinear behavior of cutting mechanism caused by tool wear and/or localized chipping is proposed, and its effectiveness is verified through the cutting experiment and actual turning machining. Moreover, the variation in the surface roughness of the machined workpiece is also discussed using this approach. In this approach, the residual error between the actually measured vibration signal and the estimated signal obtained from the time series model corresponding to dynamic model of cutting is introduced as the feature of diagnosis. Consequently, it is found that the early tool wear state (i.e. flank wear under 40µm) can be monitored, and also the optimal tool exchange time and the tool wear state for actual turning machining can be judged by this change in the residual error. Moreover, the variation of surface roughness Pz in the range of 3 to 8µm can be estimated by the monitoring of the residual error.

  2. Metagenomics meets time series analysis: unraveling microbial community dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Faust, K.; Lahti, L.M.; Gonze, D.; Vos, de W.M.; Raes, J.

    2015-01-01

    The recent increase in the number of microbial time series studies offers new insights into the stability and dynamics of microbial communities, from the world's oceans to human microbiota. Dedicated time series analysis tools allow taking full advantage of these data. Such tools can reveal periodic

  3. Policy Analysis, International Relations, and European Governance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Mads Christian Dagnis; Tatham, Michaël

    2017-01-01

    The article highlights the rationale of the special issue in terms of its objectives and guiding principles. It maps different evolutions and challenges within three analytical streams (1) regarding the field of policy analysis, (2) concerning the interaction between domestic and international...... affairs, and (3) with regards to the transformation of European Union governance in troubled times. These three research avenues highlight how not only European governance itself has evolved in a changing world, but also how the analysis of interests, institutions, and policy-making has morphed...

  4. Topic Time Series Analysis of Microblogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-01

    may be distributed more globally. Tweets on a specific topic that cluster spatially, temporally or both might be of interest to analysts, marketers ...of $ and @, with the latter only in the case that it is the only character in the token (the @ symbol is significant in its usage by Instagram in...is generated by Instagram . Topic 80, Distance: 143.2101 Top words: 1. rawr 2. ˆ0ˆ 3. kill 4. jurassic 5. dinosaur Analysis: This topic is quite

  5. Time Series Factor Analysis with an Application to Measuring Money

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gilbert, Paul D.; Meijer, Erik

    2005-01-01

    Time series factor analysis (TSFA) and its associated statistical theory is developed. Unlike dynamic factor analysis (DFA), TSFA obviates the need for explicitly modeling the process dynamics of the underlying phenomena. It also differs from standard factor analysis (FA) in important respects: the

  6. Time averaging, ageing and delay analysis of financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherstvy, Andrey G.; Vinod, Deepak; Aghion, Erez; Chechkin, Aleksei V.; Metzler, Ralf

    2017-06-01

    We introduce three strategies for the analysis of financial time series based on time averaged observables. These comprise the time averaged mean squared displacement (MSD) as well as the ageing and delay time methods for varying fractions of the financial time series. We explore these concepts via statistical analysis of historic time series for several Dow Jones Industrial indices for the period from the 1960s to 2015. Remarkably, we discover a simple universal law for the delay time averaged MSD. The observed features of the financial time series dynamics agree well with our analytical results for the time averaged measurables for geometric Brownian motion, underlying the famed Black-Scholes-Merton model. The concepts we promote here are shown to be useful for financial data analysis and enable one to unveil new universal features of stock market dynamics.

  7. Biostatistics series module 9: Survival analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avijit Hazra

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Survival analysis is concerned with “time to event“ data. Conventionally, it dealt with cancer death as the event in question, but it can handle any event occurring over a time frame, and this need not be always adverse in nature. When the outcome of a study is the time to an event, it is often not possible to wait until the event in question has happened to all the subjects, for example, until all are dead. In addition, subjects may leave the study prematurely. Such situations lead to what is called censored observations as complete information is not available for these subjects. The data set is thus an assemblage of times to the event in question and times after which no more information on the individual is available. Survival analysis methods are the only techniques capable of handling censored observations without treating them as missing data. They also make no assumption regarding normal distribution of time to event data. Descriptive methods for exploring survival times in a sample include life table and Kaplan–Meier techniques as well as various kinds of distribution fitting as advanced modeling techniques. The Kaplan–Meier cumulative survival probability over time plot has become the signature plot for biomedical survival analysis. Several techniques are available for comparing the survival experience in two or more groups – the log-rank test is popularly used. This test can also be used to produce an odds ratio as an estimate of risk of the event in the test group; this is called hazard ratio (HR. Limitations of the traditional log-rank test have led to various modifications and enhancements. Finally, survival analysis offers different regression models for estimating the impact of multiple predictors on survival. Cox's proportional hazard model is the most general of the regression methods that allows the hazard function to be modeled on a set of explanatory variables without making restrictive assumptions concerning the

  8. Time Series Analysis of Insar Data: Methods and Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osmanoglu, Batuhan; Sunar, Filiz; Wdowinski, Shimon; Cano-Cabral, Enrique

    2015-01-01

    Time series analysis of InSAR data has emerged as an important tool for monitoring and measuring the displacement of the Earth's surface. Changes in the Earth's surface can result from a wide range of phenomena such as earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, variations in ground water levels, and changes in wetland water levels. Time series analysis is applied to interferometric phase measurements, which wrap around when the observed motion is larger than one-half of the radar wavelength. Thus, the spatio-temporal ''unwrapping" of phase observations is necessary to obtain physically meaningful results. Several different algorithms have been developed for time series analysis of InSAR data to solve for this ambiguity. These algorithms may employ different models for time series analysis, but they all generate a first-order deformation rate, which can be compared to each other. However, there is no single algorithm that can provide optimal results in all cases. Since time series analyses of InSAR data are used in a variety of applications with different characteristics, each algorithm possesses inherently unique strengths and weaknesses. In this review article, following a brief overview of InSAR technology, we discuss several algorithms developed for time series analysis of InSAR data using an example set of results for measuring subsidence rates in Mexico City.

  9. Stochastic Analysis : A Series of Lectures

    CERN Document Server

    Dozzi, Marco; Flandoli, Franco; Russo, Francesco

    2015-01-01

    This book presents in thirteen refereed survey articles an overview of modern activity in stochastic analysis, written by leading international experts. The topics addressed include stochastic fluid dynamics and regularization by noise of deterministic dynamical systems; stochastic partial differential equations driven by Gaussian or Lévy noise, including the relationship between parabolic equations and particle systems, and wave equations in a geometric framework; Malliavin calculus and applications to stochastic numerics; stochastic integration in Banach spaces; porous media-type equations; stochastic deformations of classical mechanics and Feynman integrals and stochastic differential equations with reflection. The articles are based on short courses given at the Centre Interfacultaire Bernoulli of the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland, from January to June 2012. They offer a valuable resource not only for specialists, but also for other researchers and Ph.D. students in the fields o...

  10. Interpretive policy analysis in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Bommel, Severine; van Hulst, M.J.; Yanow, Dvora; van Nispen, Frans; Scholten, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This chapter outlines the character of interpretive policy analysis (IPA) and then looks at the history and present state of its practice in the Netherlands. In an approach commonly found in science studies, that history is traced through key actors and their publications, institutional locations,

  11. Transition Icons for Time-Series Visualization and Exploratory Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nickerson, Paul V; Baharloo, Raheleh; Wanigatunga, Amal A; Manini, Todd M; Tighe, Patrick J; Rashidi, Parisa

    2018-03-01

    The modern healthcare landscape has seen the rapid emergence of techniques and devices that temporally monitor and record physiological signals. The prevalence of time-series data within the healthcare field necessitates the development of methods that can analyze the data in order to draw meaningful conclusions. Time-series behavior is notoriously difficult to intuitively understand due to its intrinsic high-dimensionality, which is compounded in the case of analyzing groups of time series collected from different patients. Our framework, which we call transition icons, renders common patterns in a visual format useful for understanding the shared behavior within groups of time series. Transition icons are adept at detecting and displaying subtle differences and similarities, e.g., between measurements taken from patients receiving different treatment strategies or stratified by demographics. We introduce various methods that collectively allow for exploratory analysis of groups of time series, while being free of distribution assumptions and including simple heuristics for parameter determination. Our technique extracts discrete transition patterns from symbolic aggregate approXimation representations, and compiles transition frequencies into a bag of patterns constructed for each group. These transition frequencies are normalized and aligned in icon form to intuitively display the underlying patterns. We demonstrate the transition icon technique for two time-series datasets-postoperative pain scores, and hip-worn accelerometer activity counts. We believe transition icons can be an important tool for researchers approaching time-series data, as they give rich and intuitive information about collective time-series behaviors.

  12. Policy integration, coherence and governance in Dutch climate policy : a multi-level analysis of mitigation and adoption policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bommel, van S.; Kuindersma, W.

    2008-01-01

    This report assesses the integration of climate policy in Dutch public policy at the national, regional, local and area level. The national analysis focuses on the horizontal integration of climate policy in national government programmes, adaptation and mitigation strategies and specific policy

  13. Volatility Analysis of Bitcoin Price Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukáš Pichl

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Bitcoin has the largest share in the total capitalization of cryptocurrency markets currently reaching above 70 billion USD. In this work we focus on the price of Bitcoin in terms of standard currencies and their volatility over the last five years. The average day-to-day return throughout this period is 0.328%, amounting in exponential growth from 6 USD to over 4,000 USD per 1 BTC at present. Multi-scale analysis is performed from the level of the tick data, through the 5 min, 1 hour and 1 day scales. Distribution of trading volumes (1 sec, 1 min, 1 hour and 1 day aggregated from the Kraken BTCEUR tick data is provided that shows the artifacts of algorithmic trading (selling transactions with volume peaks distributed at integer multiples of BTC unit. Arbitrage opportunities are studied using the EUR, USD and CNY currencies. Whereas the arbitrage spread for EUR-USD currency pair is found narrow at the order of a percent, at the 1 hour sampling period the arbitrage spread for USD-CNY (and similarly EUR-CNY is found to be more substantial, reaching as high as above 5 percent on rare occasions. The volatility of BTC exchange rates is modeled using the day-to-day distribution of logarithmic return, and the Realized Volatility, sum of the squared logarithmic returns on 5-minute basis. In this work we demonstrate that the Heterogeneous Autoregressive model for Realized Volatility Andersen et al. (2007 applies reasonably well to the BTCUSD dataset. Finally, a feed-forward neural network with 2 hidden layers using 10-day moving window sampling daily return predictors is applied to estimate the next-day logarithmic return. The results show that such an artificial neural network prediction is capable of approximate capture of the actual log return distribution; more sophisticated methods, such as recurrent neural networks and LSTM (Long Short Term Memory techniques from deep learning may be necessary for higher prediction accuracy.

  14. Multivariate time series analysis with R and financial applications

    CERN Document Server

    Tsay, Ruey S

    2013-01-01

    Since the publication of his first book, Analysis of Financial Time Series, Ruey Tsay has become one of the most influential and prominent experts on the topic of time series. Different from the traditional and oftentimes complex approach to multivariate (MV) time series, this sequel book emphasizes structural specification, which results in simplified parsimonious VARMA modeling and, hence, eases comprehension. Through a fundamental balance between theory and applications, the book supplies readers with an accessible approach to financial econometric models and their applications to real-worl

  15. Education Policy Outlook: Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueroa, Diana Toledo; Golden, Gillian; Giovinazzo, Manon; Peterka, Judith; Ullmann, Marie

    2017-01-01

    This policy profile on education in Austria is part of the "Education Policy Outlook" series, which presents comparative analysis of education policies and reforms across OECD countries. Building on the OECD's substantial comparative and sectoral knowledge base, the series offers a comparative outlook on education policy by providing…

  16. Policy analysis and recommendations for the DCM research data exchange.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    This report is a policy analysis and set of recommendations regarding open data policies and policies for new, transformative data environments that are being developed as part of the Connected Vehicle research program. It is presented in three secti...

  17. Elements of nonlinear time series analysis and forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    De Gooijer, Jan G

    2017-01-01

    This book provides an overview of the current state-of-the-art of nonlinear time series analysis, richly illustrated with examples, pseudocode algorithms and real-world applications. Avoiding a “theorem-proof” format, it shows concrete applications on a variety of empirical time series. The book can be used in graduate courses in nonlinear time series and at the same time also includes interesting material for more advanced readers. Though it is largely self-contained, readers require an understanding of basic linear time series concepts, Markov chains and Monte Carlo simulation methods. The book covers time-domain and frequency-domain methods for the analysis of both univariate and multivariate (vector) time series. It makes a clear distinction between parametric models on the one hand, and semi- and nonparametric models/methods on the other. This offers the reader the option of concentrating exclusively on one of these nonlinear time series analysis methods. To make the book as user friendly as possible...

  18. The Photoplethismographic Signal Processed with Nonlinear Time Series Analysis Tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez Caceres, Jose Luis; Hong, Rolando; Garcia Lanz, Abel; Garcia Dominguez, Luis; Cabannas, Karelia

    2001-01-01

    Finger photoplethismography (PPG) signals were submitted to nonlinear time series analysis. The applied analytical techniques were: (i) High degree polynomial fitting for baseline estimation; (ii) FFT analysis for estimating power spectra; (iii) fractal dimension estimation via the Higuchi's time-domain method, and (iv) kernel nonparametric estimation for reconstructing noise free-attractors and also for estimating signal's stochastic components

  19. Nonlinear time series analysis of the human electrocardiogram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perc, Matjaz

    2005-01-01

    We analyse the human electrocardiogram with simple nonlinear time series analysis methods that are appropriate for graduate as well as undergraduate courses. In particular, attention is devoted to the notions of determinism and stationarity in physiological data. We emphasize that methods of nonlinear time series analysis can be successfully applied only if the studied data set originates from a deterministic stationary system. After positively establishing the presence of determinism and stationarity in the studied electrocardiogram, we calculate the maximal Lyapunov exponent, thus providing interesting insights into the dynamics of the human heart. Moreover, to facilitate interest and enable the integration of nonlinear time series analysis methods into the curriculum at an early stage of the educational process, we also provide user-friendly programs for each implemented method

  20. Hierarchical analysis of acceptable use policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. A. Laughton

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Acceptable use policies (AUPs are vital tools for organizations to protect themselves and their employees from misuse of computer facilities provided. A well structured, thorough AUP is essential for any organization. It is impossible for an effective AUP to deal with every clause and remain readable. For this reason, some sections of an AUP carry more weight than others, denoting importance. The methodology used to develop the hierarchical analysis is a literature review, where various sources were consulted. This hierarchical approach to AUP analysis attempts to highlight important sections and clauses dealt with in an AUP. The emphasis of the hierarchal analysis is to prioritize the objectives of an AUP.

  1. Handbook of Time Series Analysis Recent Theoretical Developments and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Schelter, Björn; Timmer, Jens

    2006-01-01

    This handbook provides an up-to-date survey of current research topics and applications of time series analysis methods written by leading experts in their fields. It covers recent developments in univariate as well as bivariate and multivariate time series analysis techniques ranging from physics' to life sciences' applications. Each chapter comprises both methodological aspects and applications to real world complex systems, such as the human brain or Earth's climate. Covering an exceptionally broad spectrum of topics, beginners, experts and practitioners who seek to understand the latest de

  2. North Korea: Economic Leverage and Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-22

    although non- governmental groups do run operations in the DPRK in activities such as goat dairy farming and transportation. North -South Korean...Finance Minister Says “At Least” 34m US Dollars Sent to North Korea. Financial Times Information, Global News Wire—Asia Africa Intelligence Wire. June 6...CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress North Korea: Economic Leverage and Policy Analysis Dick K

  3. Time series analysis and its applications with R examples

    CERN Document Server

    Shumway, Robert H

    2017-01-01

    The fourth edition of this popular graduate textbook, like its predecessors, presents a balanced and comprehensive treatment of both time and frequency domain methods with accompanying theory. Numerous examples using nontrivial data illustrate solutions to problems such as discovering natural and anthropogenic climate change, evaluating pain perception experiments using functional magnetic resonance imaging, and monitoring a nuclear test ban treaty. The book is designed as a textbook for graduate level students in the physical, biological, and social sciences and as a graduate level text in statistics. Some parts may also serve as an undergraduate introductory course. Theory and methodology are separated to allow presentations on different levels. In addition to coverage of classical methods of time series regression, ARIMA models, spectral analysis and state-space models, the text includes modern developments including categorical time series analysis, multivariate spectral methods, long memory series, nonli...

  4. Multiresolution analysis of Bursa Malaysia KLCI time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Dghais, Amel Abdoullah Ahmed

    2017-05-01

    In general, a time series is simply a sequence of numbers collected at regular intervals over a period. Financial time series data processing is concerned with the theory and practice of processing asset price over time, such as currency, commodity data, and stock market data. The primary aim of this study is to understand the fundamental characteristics of selected financial time series by using the time as well as the frequency domain analysis. After that prediction can be executed for the desired system for in sample forecasting. In this study, multiresolution analysis which the assist of discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) and maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) will be used to pinpoint special characteristics of Bursa Malaysia KLCI (Kuala Lumpur Composite Index) daily closing prices and return values. In addition, further case study discussions include the modeling of Bursa Malaysia KLCI using linear ARIMA with wavelets to address how multiresolution approach improves fitting and forecasting results.

  5. Time Series Analysis of Wheat Futures Reward in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    Different from the fact that the main researches are focused on single futures contract and lack of the comparison of different periods, this paper described the statistical characteristics of wheat futures reward time series of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in recent three years. Besides the basic statistic analysis, the paper used the GARCH and EGARCH model to describe the time series which had the ARCH effect and analyzed the persistence of volatility shocks and the leverage effect. The results showed that compared with that of normal one,wheat futures reward series were abnormality, leptokurtic and thick tail distribution. The study also found that two-part of the reward series had no autocorrelation. Among the six correlative series, three ones presented the ARCH effect. By using of the Auto-regressive Distributed Lag Model, GARCH model and EGARCH model, the paper demonstrates the persistence of volatility shocks and the leverage effect on the wheat futures reward time series. The results reveal that on the one hand, the statistical characteristics of the wheat futures reward are similar to the aboard mature futures market as a whole. But on the other hand, the results reflect some shortages such as the immatureness and the over-control by the government in the Chinese future market.

  6. Time series analysis in chaotic diode resonator circuit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanias, M.P. [TEI of Chalkis, GR 34400, Evia, Chalkis (Greece)] e-mail: mhanias@teihal.gr; Giannaris, G. [TEI of Chalkis, GR 34400, Evia, Chalkis (Greece); Spyridakis, A. [TEI of Chalkis, GR 34400, Evia, Chalkis (Greece); Rigas, A. [TEI of Chalkis, GR 34400, Evia, Chalkis (Greece)

    2006-01-01

    A diode resonator chaotic circuit is presented. Multisim is used to simulate the circuit and show the presence of chaos. Time series analysis performed by the method proposed by Grasberger and Procaccia. The correlation and minimum embedding dimension {nu} and m {sub min}, respectively, were calculated. Also the corresponding Kolmogorov entropy was calculated.

  7. Time series analysis in chaotic diode resonator circuit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanias, M.P.; Giannaris, G.; Spyridakis, A.; Rigas, A.

    2006-01-01

    A diode resonator chaotic circuit is presented. Multisim is used to simulate the circuit and show the presence of chaos. Time series analysis performed by the method proposed by Grasberger and Procaccia. The correlation and minimum embedding dimension ν and m min , respectively, were calculated. Also the corresponding Kolmogorov entropy was calculated

  8. Time series analysis of monthly pulpwood use in the Northeast

    Science.gov (United States)

    James T. Bones

    1980-01-01

    Time series analysis was used to develop a model that depicts pulpwood use in the Northeast. The model is useful in forecasting future pulpwood requirements (short term) or monitoring pulpwood-use activity in relation to past use patterns. The model predicted a downturn in use during 1980.

  9. Multi-granular trend detection for time-series analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Goethem, A.I.; Staals, F.; Löffler, M.; Dykes, J.; Speckmann, B.

    2017-01-01

    Time series (such as stock prices) and ensembles (such as model runs for weather forecasts) are two important types of one-dimensional time-varying data. Such data is readily available in large quantities but visual analysis of the raw data quickly becomes infeasible, even for moderately sized data

  10. Time Series Analysis Based on Running Mann Whitney Z Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    A sensitive and objective time series analysis method based on the calculation of Mann Whitney U statistics is described. This method samples data rankings over moving time windows, converts those samples to Mann-Whitney U statistics, and then normalizes the U statistics to Z statistics using Monte-...

  11. Time series analysis in astronomy: Limits and potentialities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vio, R.; Kristensen, N.R.; Madsen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we consider the problem of the limits concerning the physical information that can be extracted from the analysis of one or more time series ( light curves) typical of astrophysical objects. On the basis of theoretical considerations and numerical simulations, we show that with no a...

  12. Time Series Analysis of 3D Coordinates Using Nonstochastic Observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velsink, H.

    2016-01-01

    Adjustment and testing of a combination of stochastic and nonstochastic observations is applied to the deformation analysis of a time series of 3D coordinates. Nonstochastic observations are constant values that are treated as if they were observations. They are used to formulate constraints on

  13. Time Series Analysis of 3D Coordinates Using Nonstochastic Observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hiddo Velsink

    2016-01-01

    From the article: Abstract Adjustment and testing of a combination of stochastic and nonstochastic observations is applied to the deformation analysis of a time series of 3D coordinates. Nonstochastic observations are constant values that are treated as if they were observations. They are used to

  14. Identification of human operator performance models utilizing time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holden, F. M.; Shinners, S. M.

    1973-01-01

    The results of an effort performed by Sperry Systems Management Division for AMRL in applying time series analysis as a tool for modeling the human operator are presented. This technique is utilized for determining the variation of the human transfer function under various levels of stress. The human operator's model is determined based on actual input and output data from a tracking experiment.

  15. Analysis and implementation of LLC-T series parallel resonant ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A prototype 300 W, 100 kHz converter is designed and built to experimentally demonstrate, dynamic and steady state performance for the LLC-T series parallel resonant converter. A comparative study is performed between experimental results and the simulation studies. The analysis shows that the output of converter is ...

  16. Cross-impacts analysis development and energy policy analysis applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roop, J.M.; Scheer, R.M.; Stacey, G.S.

    1986-12-01

    Purpose of this report is to describe the cross-impact analysis process and microcomputer software developed for the Office of Policy, Planning, and Analysis (PPA) of DOE. First introduced in 1968, cross-impact analysis is a technique that produces scenarios of future conditions and possibilities. Cross-impact analysis has several unique attributes that make it a tool worth examining, especially in the current climate when the outlook for the economy and several of the key energy markets is uncertain. Cross-impact analysis complements the econometric, engineering, systems dynamics, or trend approaches already in use at DOE. Cross-impact analysis produces self-consistent scenarios in the broadest sense and can include interaction between the economy, technology, society and the environment. Energy policy analyses that couple broad scenarios of the future with detailed forecasting can produce more powerful results than scenario analysis or forecasts can produce alone.

  17. Feminist Policy Analysis: Expanding Traditional Social Work Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanenberg, Heather

    2013-01-01

    In an effort to move the methodology of policy analysis beyond the traditional and artificial position of being objective and value-free, this article is a call to those working and teaching in social work to consider a feminist policy analysis lens. A review of standard policy analysis models is presented alongside feminist models. Such a…

  18. Interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy: A critical analysis of China's policy approach to renewable energies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Sufang; Andrews-Speed, Philip; Zhao, Xiaoli; He, Yongxiu

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes China's policy approach to renewable energies and assesses how effectively China has met the ideal of appropriate interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy. First we briefly discuss the interactions between these two policies. Then we outline China's key renewable energy and renewable industrial policies and find that China's government has well recognized the need for this policy interaction. After that, we study the achievements and problems in China's wind and solar PV sector during 2005–2012 and argue that China's policy approach to renewable energies has placed priority first on developing a renewable energy manufacturing industry and only second on renewable energy itself, and it has not effectively met the ideal of appropriate interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy. Lastly, we make an in-depth analysis of the three ideas underlying this policy approach, that is, the green development idea, the low-carbon leadership idea and indigenous innovation idea. We conclude that Chinas' policy approach to renewable energies needs to enhance the interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy. The paper contributes to a deeper understanding of China's policy strategy toward renewable energies. -- Highlights: •Interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy are discussed. •China's key renewable energy and renewable energy industrial policies are outlined. •Two empirical cases illustrate China's policy approach to renewable energies. •We argue that China needs to enhance the interactions between the two policies. •Three ideas underlie China's policy approach to renewable energies

  19. Time series analysis methods and applications for flight data

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Jianye

    2017-01-01

    This book focuses on different facets of flight data analysis, including the basic goals, methods, and implementation techniques. As mass flight data possesses the typical characteristics of time series, the time series analysis methods and their application for flight data have been illustrated from several aspects, such as data filtering, data extension, feature optimization, similarity search, trend monitoring, fault diagnosis, and parameter prediction, etc. An intelligent information-processing platform for flight data has been established to assist in aircraft condition monitoring, training evaluation and scientific maintenance. The book will serve as a reference resource for people working in aviation management and maintenance, as well as researchers and engineers in the fields of data analysis and data mining.

  20. Time series analysis of ozone data in Isfahan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omidvari, M.; Hassanzadeh, S.; Hosseinibalam, F.

    2008-07-01

    Time series analysis used to investigate the stratospheric ozone formation and decomposition processes. Different time series methods are applied to detect the reason for extreme high ozone concentrations for each season. Data was convert into seasonal component and frequency domain, the latter has been evaluated by using the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT), spectral analysis. The power density spectrum estimated from the ozone data showed peaks at cycle duration of 22, 20, 36, 186, 365 and 40 days. According to seasonal component analysis most fluctuation was in 1999 and 2000, but the least fluctuation was in 2003. The best correlation between ozone and sun radiation was found in 2000. Other variables which are not available cause to this fluctuation in the 1999 and 2001. The trend of ozone is increasing in 1999 and is decreasing in other years.

  1. Carbon Sequestration in Colorado's Lands: A Spatial and Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, N.; Brazeau, A.; Browning, K.; Meier, R.

    2017-12-01

    Managing landscapes to enhance terrestrial carbon sequestration has significant potential to mitigate climate change. While a previous carbon baseline assessment in Colorado has been published (Conant et al, 2007), our study pulls from the existing literature to conduct an updated baseline assessment of carbon stocks and a unique review of carbon policies in Colorado. Through a multi-level spatial analysis based in GIS and informed by a literature review, we established a carbon stock baseline and ran four land use and carbon stock projection scenarios using Monte Carlo simulations. We identified 11 key policy recommendations for improving Colorado's carbon stocks, and evaluated each using Bardach's policy matrix approach (Bardach, 2012). We utilized a series of case studies to support our policy recommendations. We found that Colorado's lands have a carbon stock of 3,334 MMT CO2eq, with Forests and Woodlands holding the largest stocks, at 1,490 and 774 MMT CO2eq respectively. Avoided conversion of all Grasslands, Forests, and Wetlands in Colorado projected over 40 years would increase carbon stocks by 32 MMT CO2eq, 1,053 MMT CO2eq, and 36 MMT CO2eq, respectively. Over the 40-year study period, Forests and Woodlands areas are projected to shrink while Shrublands and Developed areas are projected to grow. Those projections suggest sizable increases in area of future wildfires and development in Colorado. We found that numerous policy opportunities to sequester carbon exist at different jurisdictional levels and across land cover types. The largest opportunities were found in state-level policies and policies impacting Forests, Grasslands, and Wetlands. The passage of statewide emission reduction legislation has the highest potential to impact carbon sequestration, although political and administrative feasibility of this option are relatively low. This study contributes to the broader field of carbon sequestration literature by examining the nexus of carbon stocks

  2. Time series analysis of nuclear instrumentation in EBR-II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imel, G.R.

    1996-01-01

    Results of a time series analysis of the scaler count data from the 3 wide range nuclear detectors in the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II are presented. One of the channels was replaced, and it was desired to determine if there was any statistically significant change (ie, improvement) in the channel's response after the replacement. Data were collected from all 3 channels for 16-day periods before and after detector replacement. Time series analysis and statistical tests showed that there was no significant change after the detector replacement. Also, there were no statistically significant differences among the 3 channels, either before or after the replacement. Finally, it was determined that errors in the reactivity change inferred from subcritical count monitoring during fuel handling would be on the other of 20-30 cents for single count intervals

  3. Mathematical methods in time series analysis and digital image processing

    CERN Document Server

    Kurths, J; Maass, P; Timmer, J

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this volume is to bring together research directions in theoretical signal and imaging processing developed rather independently in electrical engineering, theoretical physics, mathematics and the computer sciences. In particular, mathematically justified algorithms and methods, the mathematical analysis of these algorithms, and methods as well as the investigation of connections between methods from time series analysis and image processing are reviewed. An interdisciplinary comparison of these methods, drawing upon common sets of test problems from medicine and geophysical/enviromental sciences, is also addressed. This volume coherently summarizes work carried out in the field of theoretical signal and image processing. It focuses on non-linear and non-parametric models for time series as well as on adaptive methods in image processing.

  4. 41 CFR 105-53.141 - Office of Policy Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Management Regulations System (Continued) GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION 53-STATEMENT OF ORGANIZATION AND FUNCTIONS Central Offices § 105-53.141 Office of Policy Analysis. The Office of Policy Analysis, headed by..., independent, objective information concerning management policies and programs, and technical and analytical...

  5. Spectral Unmixing Analysis of Time Series Landsat 8 Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuo, R.; Xu, L.; Peng, J.; Chen, Y.

    2018-05-01

    Temporal analysis of Landsat 8 images opens up new opportunities in the unmixing procedure. Although spectral analysis of time series Landsat imagery has its own advantage, it has rarely been studied. Nevertheless, using the temporal information can provide improved unmixing performance when compared to independent image analyses. Moreover, different land cover types may demonstrate different temporal patterns, which can aid the discrimination of different natures. Therefore, this letter presents time series K-P-Means, a new solution to the problem of unmixing time series Landsat imagery. The proposed approach is to obtain the "purified" pixels in order to achieve optimal unmixing performance. The vertex component analysis (VCA) is used to extract endmembers for endmember initialization. First, nonnegative least square (NNLS) is used to estimate abundance maps by using the endmember. Then, the estimated endmember is the mean value of "purified" pixels, which is the residual of the mixed pixel after excluding the contribution of all nondominant endmembers. Assembling two main steps (abundance estimation and endmember update) into the iterative optimization framework generates the complete algorithm. Experiments using both simulated and real Landsat 8 images show that the proposed "joint unmixing" approach provides more accurate endmember and abundance estimation results compared with "separate unmixing" approach.

  6. Risk analysis and bioeconomics of invasive species to inform policy and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    David M. Lodge; Paul W. Simonin; Stanley W. Burgiel; Reuben P. Keller; Jonathan M. Bossenbroek; Christopher L. Jerde; Andrew M. Kramer; Edward S. Rutherford; Matthew A. Barnes; Marion E. Wittmann; W. Lindsay Chadderton; Jenny L. Apriesnig; Dmitry Beletsky; Roger M. Cooke; John M. Drake; Scott P. Egan; David C. Finnoff; Crysta A. Gantz; Erin K. Grey; Michael H. Hoff; Jennifer G. Howeth; Richard A. Jensen; Eric R. Larson; Nicholas E. Mandrak; Doran M. Mason; Felix A. Martinez; Tammy J. Newcomb; John D. Rothlisberger; Andrew J. Tucker; Travis W. Warziniack; Hongyan. Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Risk analysis of species invasions links biology and economics, is increasingly mandated by international and national policies, and enables improved management of invasive species. Biological invasions proceed through a series of transition probabilities (i.e., introduction, establishment, spread, and impact), and each of these presents opportunities for...

  7. Notes on economic time series analysis system theoretic perspectives

    CERN Document Server

    Aoki, Masanao

    1983-01-01

    In seminars and graduate level courses I have had several opportunities to discuss modeling and analysis of time series with economists and economic graduate students during the past several years. These experiences made me aware of a gap between what economic graduate students are taught about vector-valued time series and what is available in recent system literature. Wishing to fill or narrow the gap that I suspect is more widely spread than my personal experiences indicate, I have written these notes to augment and reor­ ganize materials I have given in these courses and seminars. I have endeavored to present, in as much a self-contained way as practicable, a body of results and techniques in system theory that I judge to be relevant and useful to economists interested in using time series in their research. I have essentially acted as an intermediary and interpreter of system theoretic results and perspectives in time series by filtering out non-essential details, and presenting coherent accounts of wha...

  8. Interrupted time series analysis in drug utilization research is increasing: systematic review and recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jandoc, Racquel; Burden, Andrea M; Mamdani, Muhammad; Lévesque, Linda E; Cadarette, Suzanne M

    2015-08-01

    To describe the use and reporting of interrupted time series methods in drug utilization research. We completed a systematic search of MEDLINE, Web of Science, and reference lists to identify English language articles through to December 2013 that used interrupted time series methods in drug utilization research. We tabulated the number of studies by publication year and summarized methodological detail. We identified 220 eligible empirical applications since 1984. Only 17 (8%) were published before 2000, and 90 (41%) were published since 2010. Segmented regression was the most commonly applied interrupted time series method (67%). Most studies assessed drug policy changes (51%, n = 112); 22% (n = 48) examined the impact of new evidence, 18% (n = 39) examined safety advisories, and 16% (n = 35) examined quality improvement interventions. Autocorrelation was considered in 66% of studies, 31% reported adjusting for seasonality, and 15% accounted for nonstationarity. Use of interrupted time series methods in drug utilization research has increased, particularly in recent years. Despite methodological recommendations, there is large variation in reporting of analytic methods. Developing methodological and reporting standards for interrupted time series analysis is important to improve its application in drug utilization research, and we provide recommendations for consideration. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Policy Analysis on Growth and Employment - PAGE II | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Policy Analysis on Growth and Employment - PAGE II. This project by the Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP) will support quality ... The project is supported by the UK's Department for International Development, and additional funding is ...

  10. Topological data analysis of financial time series: Landscapes of crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gidea, Marian; Katz, Yuri

    2018-02-01

    We explore the evolution of daily returns of four major US stock market indices during the technology crash of 2000, and the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Our methodology is based on topological data analysis (TDA). We use persistence homology to detect and quantify topological patterns that appear in multidimensional time series. Using a sliding window, we extract time-dependent point cloud data sets, to which we associate a topological space. We detect transient loops that appear in this space, and we measure their persistence. This is encoded in real-valued functions referred to as a 'persistence landscapes'. We quantify the temporal changes in persistence landscapes via their Lp-norms. We test this procedure on multidimensional time series generated by various non-linear and non-equilibrium models. We find that, in the vicinity of financial meltdowns, the Lp-norms exhibit strong growth prior to the primary peak, which ascends during a crash. Remarkably, the average spectral density at low frequencies of the time series of Lp-norms of the persistence landscapes demonstrates a strong rising trend for 250 trading days prior to either dotcom crash on 03/10/2000, or to the Lehman bankruptcy on 09/15/2008. Our study suggests that TDA provides a new type of econometric analysis, which complements the standard statistical measures. The method can be used to detect early warning signals of imminent market crashes. We believe that this approach can be used beyond the analysis of financial time series presented here.

  11. Cluster analysis of activity-time series in motor learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balslev, Daniela; Nielsen, Finn Å; Futiger, Sally A

    2002-01-01

    Neuroimaging studies of learning focus on brain areas where the activity changes as a function of time. To circumvent the difficult problem of model selection, we used a data-driven analytic tool, cluster analysis, which extracts representative temporal and spatial patterns from the voxel......-time series. The optimal number of clusters was chosen using a cross-validated likelihood method, which highlights the clustering pattern that generalizes best over the subjects. Data were acquired with PET at different time points during practice of a visuomotor task. The results from cluster analysis show...

  12. Office of Integrated Assessment and Policy Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parzyck, D.C.

    1980-01-01

    The mission of the Office of Integrated Assessments and Policy Analysis (OIAPA) is to examine current and future policies related to the development and use of energy technologies. The principal ongoing research activity to date has focused on the impacts of several energy sources, including coal, oil shale, solar, and geothermal, from the standpoint of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act. An additional project has recently been initiated on an evaluation of impacts associated with the implementation of the Toxic Substances Control Act. The impacts of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act and the Toxic Substances Control Act on energy supply constitute the principal research focus of OIAPA for the near term. From these studies a research approach will be developed to identify certain common elements in the regulatory evaluation cycle as a means of evaluating subsequent environmental, health, and socioeconomic impact. It is planned that an integrated assessment team examine studies completed or underway on the following aspects of major regulations: health, risk assessment, testing protocols, environment control cost/benefits, institutional structures, and facility siting. This examination would assess the methodologies used, determine the general applicability of such studies, and present in a logical form information that appears to have broad general application. A suggested action plan for the State of Tennessee on radioactive and hazardous waste management is outlined

  13. Biofuel supply chain, market, and policy analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Leilei

    Renewable fuel is receiving an increasing attention as a substitute for fossil based energy. The US Department of Energy (DOE) has employed increasing effort on promoting the advanced biofuel productions. Although the advanced biofuel remains at its early stage, it is expected to play an important role in climate policy in the future in the transportation sector. This dissertation studies the emerging biofuel supply chain and markets by analyzing the production cost, and the outcomes of the biofuel market, including blended fuel market price and quantity, biofuel contract price and quantity, profitability of each stakeholder (farmers, biofuel producers, biofuel blenders) in the market. I also address government policy impacts on the emerging biofuel market. The dissertation is composed with three parts, each in a paper format. The first part studies the supply chain of emerging biofuel industry. Two optimization-based models are built to determine the number of facilities to deploy, facility locations, facility capacities, and operational planning within facilities. Cost analyses have been conducted under a variety of biofuel demand scenarios. It is my intention that this model will shed light on biofuel supply chain design considering operational planning under uncertain demand situations. The second part of the dissertation work focuses on analyzing the interaction between the key stakeholders along the supply chain. A bottom-up equilibrium model is built for the emerging biofuel market to study the competition in the advanced biofuel market, explicitly formulating the interactions between farmers, biofuel producers, blenders, and consumers. The model simulates the profit maximization of multiple market entities by incorporating their competitive decisions in farmers' land allocation, biomass transportation, biofuel production, and biofuel blending. As such, the equilibrium model is capable of and appropriate for policy analysis, especially for those policies

  14. Time Series Analysis, Modeling and Applications A Computational Intelligence Perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Shyi-Ming

    2013-01-01

    Temporal and spatiotemporal data form an inherent fabric of the society as we are faced with streams of data coming from numerous sensors, data feeds, recordings associated with numerous areas of application embracing physical and human-generated phenomena (environmental data, financial markets, Internet activities, etc.). A quest for a thorough analysis, interpretation, modeling and prediction of time series comes with an ongoing challenge for developing models that are both accurate and user-friendly (interpretable). The volume is aimed to exploit the conceptual and algorithmic framework of Computational Intelligence (CI) to form a cohesive and comprehensive environment for building models of time series. The contributions covered in the volume are fully reflective of the wealth of the CI technologies by bringing together ideas, algorithms, and numeric studies, which convincingly demonstrate their relevance, maturity and visible usefulness. It reflects upon the truly remarkable diversity of methodological a...

  15. Recurrence Density Enhanced Complex Networks for Nonlinear Time Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Diego G. De B.; Reis, Barbara M. Da F.; Zou, Yong; Quiles, Marcos G.; Macau, Elbert E. N.

    We introduce a new method, which is entitled Recurrence Density Enhanced Complex Network (RDE-CN), to properly analyze nonlinear time series. Our method first transforms a recurrence plot into a figure of a reduced number of points yet preserving the main and fundamental recurrence properties of the original plot. This resulting figure is then reinterpreted as a complex network, which is further characterized by network statistical measures. We illustrate the computational power of RDE-CN approach by time series by both the logistic map and experimental fluid flows, which show that our method distinguishes different dynamics sufficiently well as the traditional recurrence analysis. Therefore, the proposed methodology characterizes the recurrence matrix adequately, while using a reduced set of points from the original recurrence plots.

  16. Time series analysis for psychological research: examining and forecasting change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jebb, Andrew T; Tay, Louis; Wang, Wei; Huang, Qiming

    2015-01-01

    Psychological research has increasingly recognized the importance of integrating temporal dynamics into its theories, and innovations in longitudinal designs and analyses have allowed such theories to be formalized and tested. However, psychological researchers may be relatively unequipped to analyze such data, given its many characteristics and the general complexities involved in longitudinal modeling. The current paper introduces time series analysis to psychological research, an analytic domain that has been essential for understanding and predicting the behavior of variables across many diverse fields. First, the characteristics of time series data are discussed. Second, different time series modeling techniques are surveyed that can address various topics of interest to psychological researchers, including describing the pattern of change in a variable, modeling seasonal effects, assessing the immediate and long-term impact of a salient event, and forecasting future values. To illustrate these methods, an illustrative example based on online job search behavior is used throughout the paper, and a software tutorial in R for these analyses is provided in the Supplementary Materials.

  17. Time series analysis for psychological research: examining and forecasting change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jebb, Andrew T.; Tay, Louis; Wang, Wei; Huang, Qiming

    2015-01-01

    Psychological research has increasingly recognized the importance of integrating temporal dynamics into its theories, and innovations in longitudinal designs and analyses have allowed such theories to be formalized and tested. However, psychological researchers may be relatively unequipped to analyze such data, given its many characteristics and the general complexities involved in longitudinal modeling. The current paper introduces time series analysis to psychological research, an analytic domain that has been essential for understanding and predicting the behavior of variables across many diverse fields. First, the characteristics of time series data are discussed. Second, different time series modeling techniques are surveyed that can address various topics of interest to psychological researchers, including describing the pattern of change in a variable, modeling seasonal effects, assessing the immediate and long-term impact of a salient event, and forecasting future values. To illustrate these methods, an illustrative example based on online job search behavior is used throughout the paper, and a software tutorial in R for these analyses is provided in the Supplementary Materials. PMID:26106341

  18. Chaotic time series analysis in economics: Balance and perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faggini, Marisa

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the paper is not to review the large body of work concerning nonlinear time series analysis in economics, about which much has been written, but rather to focus on the new techniques developed to detect chaotic behaviours in economic data. More specifically, our attention will be devoted to reviewing some of these techniques and their application to economic and financial data in order to understand why chaos theory, after a period of growing interest, appears now not to be such an interesting and promising research area

  19. Chaotic time series analysis in economics: Balance and perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faggini, Marisa, E-mail: mfaggini@unisa.it [Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, Università di Salerno, Fisciano 84084 (Italy)

    2014-12-15

    The aim of the paper is not to review the large body of work concerning nonlinear time series analysis in economics, about which much has been written, but rather to focus on the new techniques developed to detect chaotic behaviours in economic data. More specifically, our attention will be devoted to reviewing some of these techniques and their application to economic and financial data in order to understand why chaos theory, after a period of growing interest, appears now not to be such an interesting and promising research area.

  20. Interpretation and Analysis of Privacy Policies of Websites in India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dhotre, Prashant Shantaram; Olesen, Henning; Khajuria, Samant

    2016-01-01

    the conditions specified in the policy document. So, ideally the privacy policies should be readable and provide sufficient information to empower users to make knowledgeable decisions. Thus, we have examined more than 50 privacy policies and discussed the content analysis in this paper. We discovered...... on information collection methods, purpose, sharing entities names and data transit. In this study, the 11 % privacy policies are compliance with privacy standards which denotes other privacy policies are less committed to support transparency, choice, and accountability in the process of information collection...... that the policies are not only unstructured but also described in complicated language. Our analysis shows that the user data security measures are nonspecific and unsatisfactory in 57% privacy policies. In spite of huge amount of information collection, the privacy policies does not have clear description...

  1. Industrial electricity demand for Turkey: A structural time series analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dilaver, Zafer; Hunt, Lester C.

    2011-01-01

    This research investigates the relationship between Turkish industrial electricity consumption, industrial value added and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish industrial electricity demand. To achieve this, an industrial electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. In addition to identifying the size and significance of the price and industrial value added (output) elasticities, this technique also uncovers the electricity Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT) for the Turkish industrial sector and is, as far as is known, the first attempt to do this. The results suggest that output and real electricity prices and a UEDT all have an important role to play in driving Turkish industrial electricity demand. Consequently, they should all be incorporated when modelling Turkish industrial electricity demand and the estimated UEDT should arguably be considered in future energy policy decisions concerning the Turkish electricity industry. The output and price elasticities are estimated to be 0.15 and - 0.16 respectively, with an increasing (but at a decreasing rate) UEDT and based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish industrial electricity demand will be somewhere between 97 and 148 TWh by 2020. -- Research Highlights: → Estimated output and price elasticities of 0.15 and -0.16 respectively. → Estimated upward sloping UEDT (i.e. energy using) but at a decreasing rate. → Predicted Turkish industrial electricity demand between 97 and 148 TWh in 2020.

  2. Time series clustering analysis of health-promoting behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Chi-Ta; Hung, Yu-Shiang; Deng, Guang-Feng

    2013-10-01

    Health promotion must be emphasized to achieve the World Health Organization goal of health for all. Since the global population is aging rapidly, ComCare elder health-promoting service was developed by the Taiwan Institute for Information Industry in 2011. Based on the Pender health promotion model, ComCare service offers five categories of health-promoting functions to address the everyday needs of seniors: nutrition management, social support, exercise management, health responsibility, stress management. To assess the overall ComCare service and to improve understanding of the health-promoting behavior of elders, this study analyzed health-promoting behavioral data automatically collected by the ComCare monitoring system. In the 30638 session records collected for 249 elders from January, 2012 to March, 2013, behavior patterns were identified by fuzzy c-mean time series clustering algorithm combined with autocorrelation-based representation schemes. The analysis showed that time series data for elder health-promoting behavior can be classified into four different clusters. Each type reveals different health-promoting needs, frequencies, function numbers and behaviors. The data analysis result can assist policymakers, health-care providers, and experts in medicine, public health, nursing and psychology and has been provided to Taiwan National Health Insurance Administration to assess the elder health-promoting behavior.

  3. Time series analysis of gold production in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muda, Nora; Hoon, Lee Yuen

    2012-05-01

    Gold is a soft, malleable, bright yellow metallic element and unaffected by air or most reagents. It is highly valued as an asset or investment commodity and is extensively used in jewellery, industrial application, dentistry and medical applications. In Malaysia, gold mining is limited in several areas such as Pahang, Kelantan, Terengganu, Johor and Sarawak. The main purpose of this case study is to obtain a suitable model for the production of gold in Malaysia. The model can also be used to predict the data of Malaysia's gold production in the future. Box-Jenkins time series method was used to perform time series analysis with the following steps: identification, estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting. In addition, the accuracy of prediction is tested using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). From the analysis, the ARIMA (3,1,1) model was found to be the best fitted model with MAPE equals to 3.704%, indicating the prediction is very accurate. Hence, this model can be used for forecasting. This study is expected to help the private and public sectors to understand the gold production scenario and later plan the gold mining activities in Malaysia.

  4. Predicting the Market Potential Using Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halmet Bradosti

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this analysis is to forecast a mini-market sales volume for the period of twelve months starting August 2015 to August 2016. The study is based on the monthly sales in Iraqi Dinar for a private local mini-market for the month of April 2014 to July 2015. As revealed on the graph and of course if the stagnant economic condition continues, the trend of future sales is down-warding. Based on time series analysis, the business may continue to operate and generate small revenues until August 2016. However, due to low sales volume, low profit margin and operating expenses, the revenues may not be adequate enough to produce positive net income and the business may not be able to operate afterward. The principal question rose from this is the forecasting sales in the region will be difficult where the business cycle so dynamic and revolutionary due to systematic risks and unforeseeable future.

  5. The Policy Impact of Social Movements: A Replication Through Qualitative Comparative Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Giugni, Marco; Yamasaki, Sakura

    2009-01-01

    This article reanalyzes the data of a previous study on the policy impact of antinuclear, ecology, and peace movements in three countries with the aim of replicating its findings. Our goal is to see whether using a different analytical technique will yield similar results. The previous study used a regression approach to time-series analysis. Here, we use qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to analyze the previous study’s data. Specifically, we test the two main hypotheses based on the joi...

  6. Pipe-anchor discontinuity analysis utilizing power series solutions, Bessel functions, and Fourier series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, Dennis K.; Ranson, William F.

    2003-01-01

    One of the paradigmatic classes of problems that frequently arise in piping stress analysis discipline is the effect of local stresses created by supports and restraints attachments. Over the past 20 years, concerns have been identified by both regulatory agencies in the nuclear power industry and others in the process and chemicals industries concerning the effect of various stiff clamping arrangements on the expected life of the pipe and its various piping components. In many of the commonly utilized geometries and arrangements of pipe clamps, the elasticity problem becomes the axisymmetric stress and deformation determination in a hollow cylinder (pipe) subjected to the appropriate boundary conditions and respective loads per se. One of the geometries that serve as a pipe anchor is comprised of two pipe clamps that are bolted tightly to the pipe and affixed to a modified shoe-type arrangement. The shoe is employed for the purpose of providing an immovable base that can be easily attached either by bolting or welding to a structural steel pipe rack. Over the past 50 years, the computational tools available to the piping analyst have changed dramatically and thereby have caused the implementation of solutions to the basic problems of elasticity to change likewise. The need to obtain closed form elasticity solutions, however, has always been a driving force in engineering. The employment of symbolic calculus that is currently available through numerous software packages makes closed form solutions very economical. This paper briefly traces the solutions over the past 50 years to a variety of axisymmetric stress problems involving hollow circular cylinders employing a Fourier series representation. In the present example, a properly chosen Fourier series represent the mathematical simulation of the imposed axial displacements on the outside diametrical surface. A general solution technique is introduced for the axisymmetric discontinuity stresses resulting from an

  7. Reaching beyond Democracy in Educational Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Leigh

    2016-01-01

    Educational policy analyses have tended toward either the impact of policies on student achievement or the furthering of progressive ideals, regularly theorized through concepts of democracy. In this theoretical essay, I suggest that democracy has become a vehicle for cauterized projects of individualized and contingent state status rather than…

  8. Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimlou, Masoud; Salehi, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

    2015-01-01

    Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box-Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection.

  9. Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000–2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimlou, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

    2015-01-01

    Background Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. Objectives To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. Methods In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box–Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. Results There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Conclusions The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection. PMID:26119774

  10. Comparison of correlation analysis techniques for irregularly sampled time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Rehfeld

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Geoscientific measurements often provide time series with irregular time sampling, requiring either data reconstruction (interpolation or sophisticated methods to handle irregular sampling. We compare the linear interpolation technique and different approaches for analyzing the correlation functions and persistence of irregularly sampled time series, as Lomb-Scargle Fourier transformation and kernel-based methods. In a thorough benchmark test we investigate the performance of these techniques.

    All methods have comparable root mean square errors (RMSEs for low skewness of the inter-observation time distribution. For high skewness, very irregular data, interpolation bias and RMSE increase strongly. We find a 40 % lower RMSE for the lag-1 autocorrelation function (ACF for the Gaussian kernel method vs. the linear interpolation scheme,in the analysis of highly irregular time series. For the cross correlation function (CCF the RMSE is then lower by 60 %. The application of the Lomb-Scargle technique gave results comparable to the kernel methods for the univariate, but poorer results in the bivariate case. Especially the high-frequency components of the signal, where classical methods show a strong bias in ACF and CCF magnitude, are preserved when using the kernel methods.

    We illustrate the performances of interpolation vs. Gaussian kernel method by applying both to paleo-data from four locations, reflecting late Holocene Asian monsoon variability as derived from speleothem δ18O measurements. Cross correlation results are similar for both methods, which we attribute to the long time scales of the common variability. The persistence time (memory is strongly overestimated when using the standard, interpolation-based, approach. Hence, the Gaussian kernel is a reliable and more robust estimator with significant advantages compared to other techniques and suitable for large scale application to paleo-data.

  11. Remote-Sensing Time Series Analysis, a Vegetation Monitoring Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKellip, Rodney; Prados, Donald; Ryan, Robert; Ross, Kenton; Spruce, Joseph; Gasser, Gerald; Greer, Randall

    2008-01-01

    The Time Series Product Tool (TSPT) is software, developed in MATLAB , which creates and displays high signal-to- noise Vegetation Indices imagery and other higher-level products derived from remotely sensed data. This tool enables automated, rapid, large-scale regional surveillance of crops, forests, and other vegetation. TSPT temporally processes high-revisit-rate satellite imagery produced by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and by other remote-sensing systems. Although MODIS imagery is acquired daily, cloudiness and other sources of noise can greatly reduce the effective temporal resolution. To improve cloud statistics, the TSPT combines MODIS data from multiple satellites (Aqua and Terra). The TSPT produces MODIS products as single time-frame and multitemporal change images, as time-series plots at a selected location, or as temporally processed image videos. Using the TSPT program, MODIS metadata is used to remove and/or correct bad and suspect data. Bad pixel removal, multiple satellite data fusion, and temporal processing techniques create high-quality plots and animated image video sequences that depict changes in vegetation greenness. This tool provides several temporal processing options not found in other comparable imaging software tools. Because the framework to generate and use other algorithms is established, small modifications to this tool will enable the use of a large range of remotely sensed data types. An effective remote-sensing crop monitoring system must be able to detect subtle changes in plant health in the earliest stages, before the effects of a disease outbreak or other adverse environmental conditions can become widespread and devastating. The integration of the time series analysis tool with ground-based information, soil types, crop types, meteorological data, and crop growth models in a Geographic Information System, could provide the foundation for a large-area crop-surveillance system that could identify

  12. Inorganic chemical analysis of environmental materials—A lecture series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crock, J.G.; Lamothe, P.J.

    2011-01-01

    At the request of the faculty of the Colorado School of Mines, Golden, Colorado, the authors prepared and presented a lecture series to the students of a graduate level advanced instrumental analysis class. The slides and text presented in this report are a compilation and condensation of this series of lectures. The purpose of this report is to present the slides and notes and to emphasize the thought processes that should be used by a scientist submitting samples for analyses in order to procure analytical data to answer a research question. First and foremost, the analytical data generated can be no better than the samples submitted. The questions to be answered must first be well defined and the appropriate samples collected from the population that will answer the question. The proper methods of analysis, including proper sample preparation and digestion techniques, must then be applied. Care must be taken to achieve the required limits of detection of the critical analytes to yield detectable analyte concentration (above "action" levels) for the majority of the study's samples and to address what portion of those analytes answer the research question-total or partial concentrations. To guarantee a robust analytical result that answers the research question(s), a well-defined quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) plan must be employed. This QA/QC plan must include the collection and analysis of field and laboratory blanks, sample duplicates, and matrix-matched standard reference materials (SRMs). The proper SRMs may include in-house materials and/or a selection of widely available commercial materials. A discussion of the preparation and applicability of in-house reference materials is also presented. Only when all these analytical issues are sufficiently addressed can the research questions be answered with known certainty.

  13. STUDIES IN ASTRONOMICAL TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. VI. BAYESIAN BLOCK REPRESENTATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scargle, Jeffrey D. [Space Science and Astrobiology Division, MS 245-3, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035-1000 (United States); Norris, Jay P. [Physics Department, Boise State University, 2110 University Drive, Boise, ID 83725-1570 (United States); Jackson, Brad [The Center for Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Mathematics, San Jose State University, One Washington Square, MH 308, San Jose, CA 95192-0103 (United States); Chiang, James, E-mail: jeffrey.d.scargle@nasa.gov [W. W. Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory, Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, Department of Physics and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States)

    2013-02-20

    This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it-an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks-that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piecewise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by Arias-Castro et al. In the spirit of Reproducible Research all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as supplementary material.

  14. Time series analysis of brain regional volume by MR image

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Mika; Tarusawa, Ayaka; Nihei, Mitsuyo; Fukami, Tadanori; Yuasa, Tetsuya; Wu, Jin; Ishiwata, Kiichi; Ishii, Kenji

    2010-01-01

    The present study proposed a methodology of time series analysis of volumes of frontal, parietal, temporal and occipital lobes and cerebellum because such volumetric reports along the process of individual's aging have been scarcely presented. Subjects analyzed were brain images of 2 healthy males and 18 females of av. age of 69.0 y, of which T1-weighted 3D SPGR (spoiled gradient recalled in the steady state) acquisitions with a GE SIGNA EXCITE HD 1.5T machine were conducted for 4 times in the time series of 42-50 months. The image size was 256 x 256 x (86-124) voxels with digitization level 16 bits. As the template for the regions, the standard gray matter atlas (icbn452 a tlas p robability g ray) and its labeled one (icbn.Labels), provided by UCLA Laboratory of Neuro Imaging, were used for individual's standardization. Segmentation, normalization and coregistration were performed with the MR imaging software SPM8 (Statistic Parametric Mapping 8). Volumes of regions were calculated as their voxel ratio to the whole brain voxel in percent. It was found that the regional volumes decreased with aging in all above lobes examined and cerebellum in average percent per year of -0.11, -0.07, -0.04, -0.02, and -0.03, respectively. The procedure for calculation of the regional volumes, which has been manually operated hitherto, can be automatically conducted for the individual brain using the standard atlases above. (T.T.)

  15. Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. VI. Bayesian Block Representations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scargle, Jeffrey D.; Norris, Jay P.; Jackson, Brad; Chiang, James

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it-an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks [Scargle 1998]-that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piece- wise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by [Arias-Castro, Donoho and Huo 2003]. In the spirit of Reproducible Research [Donoho et al. (2008)] all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as auxiliary material.

  16. STUDIES IN ASTRONOMICAL TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. VI. BAYESIAN BLOCK REPRESENTATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scargle, Jeffrey D.; Norris, Jay P.; Jackson, Brad; Chiang, James

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it—an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks—that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piecewise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by Arias-Castro et al. In the spirit of Reproducible Research all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as supplementary material.

  17. Learning from the Past for Future Policy: Approaches to Time-series ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Western Indian Ocean Journal of Marine Science ... The Food and Agricultrual Organization (FAO) compiles statistical reports from its member countries, ... management policies on resource conservation for the benefit of coastal communities.

  18. Policy research and analysis organizations: an account of recent ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Drawing from interviews, archival documents and a range of other sources, this article takes stock of key public policy research and analysis organizations in Ethiopia. It sheds light on the significance of professionalization of policy analysis and its contributions to closing the gap between knowledge and policymaking, offers ...

  19. An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules

    OpenAIRE

    John B. Taylor

    1998-01-01

    This paper examines several episodes in U.S. monetary history using the framework of an interest rate rule for monetary policy. The main finding is that a monetary policy rule in which the interest rate responds to inflation and real output more aggressively than it did in the 1960s and 1970s, or than during the time of the international gold standard, and more like the late 1980s and 1990s, is a good policy rule. Moreover, if one defines rule, then such mistakes have been associated with eit...

  20. A non linear analysis of human gait time series based on multifractal analysis and cross correlations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munoz-Diosdado, A

    2005-01-01

    We analyzed databases with gait time series of adults and persons with Parkinson, Huntington and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) diseases. We obtained the staircase graphs of accumulated events that can be bounded by a straight line whose slope can be used to distinguish between gait time series from healthy and ill persons. The global Hurst exponent of these series do not show tendencies, we intend that this is because some gait time series have monofractal behavior and others have multifractal behavior so they cannot be characterized with a single Hurst exponent. We calculated the multifractal spectra, obtained the spectra width and found that the spectra of the healthy young persons are almost monofractal. The spectra of ill persons are wider than the spectra of healthy persons. In opposition to the interbeat time series where the pathology implies loss of multifractality, in the gait time series the multifractal behavior emerges with the pathology. Data were collected from healthy and ill subjects as they walked in a roughly circular path and they have sensors in both feet, so we have one time series for the left foot and other for the right foot. First, we analyzed these time series separately, and then we compared both results, with direct comparison and with a cross correlation analysis. We tried to find differences in both time series that can be used as indicators of equilibrium problems

  1. A non linear analysis of human gait time series based on multifractal analysis and cross correlations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munoz-Diosdado, A [Department of Mathematics, Unidad Profesional Interdisciplinaria de Biotecnologia, Instituto Politecnico Nacional, Av. Acueducto s/n, 07340, Mexico City (Mexico)

    2005-01-01

    We analyzed databases with gait time series of adults and persons with Parkinson, Huntington and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) diseases. We obtained the staircase graphs of accumulated events that can be bounded by a straight line whose slope can be used to distinguish between gait time series from healthy and ill persons. The global Hurst exponent of these series do not show tendencies, we intend that this is because some gait time series have monofractal behavior and others have multifractal behavior so they cannot be characterized with a single Hurst exponent. We calculated the multifractal spectra, obtained the spectra width and found that the spectra of the healthy young persons are almost monofractal. The spectra of ill persons are wider than the spectra of healthy persons. In opposition to the interbeat time series where the pathology implies loss of multifractality, in the gait time series the multifractal behavior emerges with the pathology. Data were collected from healthy and ill subjects as they walked in a roughly circular path and they have sensors in both feet, so we have one time series for the left foot and other for the right foot. First, we analyzed these time series separately, and then we compared both results, with direct comparison and with a cross correlation analysis. We tried to find differences in both time series that can be used as indicators of equilibrium problems.

  2. Discontinuous conduction mode analysis of phase-modulated series ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    modulated dc–dc series resonant converter (SRC) operating in discontinuous conduction mode (DCM). The conventional fundamental harmonic approximation technique is extended for a non-ideal series resonant tank to clarify the limitations of ...

  3. Centrality measures in temporal networks with time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Qiangjuan; Zhao, Chengli; Zhang, Xue; Wang, Xiaojie; Yi, Dongyun

    2017-05-01

    The study of identifying important nodes in networks has a wide application in different fields. However, the current researches are mostly based on static or aggregated networks. Recently, the increasing attention to networks with time-varying structure promotes the study of node centrality in temporal networks. In this paper, we define a supra-evolution matrix to depict the temporal network structure. With using of the time series analysis, the relationships between different time layers can be learned automatically. Based on the special form of the supra-evolution matrix, the eigenvector centrality calculating problem is turned into the calculation of eigenvectors of several low-dimensional matrices through iteration, which effectively reduces the computational complexity. Experiments are carried out on two real-world temporal networks, Enron email communication network and DBLP co-authorship network, the results of which show that our method is more efficient at discovering the important nodes than the common aggregating method.

  4. Analysis of the Main Factors Influencing Food Production in China Based on Time Series Trend Chart

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shuangjin; WANG; Jianying; LI

    2014-01-01

    Based on the annual sample data on food production in China since the reform and opening up,we select 8 main factors influencing the total food production( growing area,application rate of chemical fertilizer,effective irrigation area,the affected area,total machinery power,food production cost index,food production price index,financial funds for supporting agriculture,farmers and countryside),and put them into categories of material input,resources and environment,and policy factors. Using the factor analysis,we carry out the multi-angle analysis of these typical influencing factors one by one through the time series trend chart. It is found that application rate of chemical fertilizer,the growing area of food crops and drought-affected area become the key factors affecting food production. On this basis,we set forth the corresponding recommendations for improving the comprehensive food production capacity.

  5. Aspects with Program Analysis for Security Policies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Fan

    Enforcing security policies to IT systems, especially for a mobile distributed system, is challenging. As society becomes more IT-savvy, our expectations about security and privacy evolve. This is usually followed by changes in regulation in the form of standards and legislation. In many cases......, small modification of the security requirement might lead to substantial changes in a number of modules within a large mobile distributed system. Indeed, security is a crosscutting concern which can spread to many business modules within a system, and is difficult to be integrated in a modular way....... This dissertation explores the principles of adding challenging security policies to existing systems with great flexibility and modularity. The policies concerned cover both classical access control and explicit information flow policies. We built our solution by combining aspect-oriented programming techniques...

  6. Adult Craniopharyngioma: Case Series, Systematic Review, and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dandurand, Charlotte; Sepehry, Amir Ali; Asadi Lari, Mohammad Hossein; Akagami, Ryojo; Gooderham, Peter

    2017-12-18

    The optimal therapeutic approach for adult craniopharyngioma remains controversial. Some advocate for gross total resection (GTR), while others advocate for subtotal resection followed by adjuvant radiotherapy (STR + XRT). To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis assessing the rate of recurrence in the follow-up of 3 yr in adult craniopharyngioma stratified by extent of resection and presence of adjuvant radiotherapy. MEDLINE (1946-July 1, 2016) and EMBASE (1980-June 30, 2016) were systematically reviewed. From1975 to 2013, 33 patients were treated with initial surgical resection for adult onset craniopharyngioma at our center and were reviewed for inclusion in this study. Data from 22 patients were available for inclusion as a case series in the systematic review. Eligible studies (n = 21) were identified from the literature in addition to a case series of our institutional experience. Three groups were available for analysis: GTR, STR + XRT, and STR. The rates of recurrence were 17%, 27%, and 45%, respectively. The risk of developing recurrence was significant for GTR vs STR (odds ratio [OR]: 0.24, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.15-0.38) and STR + XRT vs STR (OR: 0.20, 95% CI: 0.10-0.41). Risk of recurrence after GTR vs STR + XRT did not reach significance (OR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.33-1.24, P = .18). This is the first and largest systematic review focusing on the rate of recurrence in adult craniopharyngioma. Although the rates of recurrence are favoring GTR, difference in risk of recurrence did not reach significance. This study provides guidance to clinicians and directions for future research with the need to stratify outcomes per treatment modalities. Copyright © 2017 by the Congress of Neurological Surgeons

  7. Assessing Spontaneous Combustion Instability with Nonlinear Time Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eberhart, C. J.; Casiano, M. J.

    2015-01-01

    Considerable interest lies in the ability to characterize the onset of spontaneous instabilities within liquid propellant rocket engine (LPRE) combustion devices. Linear techniques, such as fast Fourier transforms, various correlation parameters, and critical damping parameters, have been used at great length for over fifty years. Recently, nonlinear time series methods have been applied to deduce information pertaining to instability incipiency hidden in seemingly stochastic combustion noise. A technique commonly used in biological sciences known as the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis has been extended to the combustion dynamics field, and is introduced here as a data analysis approach complementary to linear ones. Advancing, a modified technique is leveraged to extract artifacts of impending combustion instability that present themselves a priori growth to limit cycle amplitudes. Analysis is demonstrated on data from J-2X gas generator testing during which a distinct spontaneous instability was observed. Comparisons are made to previous work wherein the data were characterized using linear approaches. Verification of the technique is performed by examining idealized signals and comparing two separate, independently developed tools.

  8. Modeling activity patterns of wildlife using time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jindong; Hull, Vanessa; Ouyang, Zhiyun; He, Liang; Connor, Thomas; Yang, Hongbo; Huang, Jinyan; Zhou, Shiqiang; Zhang, Zejun; Zhou, Caiquan; Zhang, Hemin; Liu, Jianguo

    2017-04-01

    The study of wildlife activity patterns is an effective approach to understanding fundamental ecological and evolutionary processes. However, traditional statistical approaches used to conduct quantitative analysis have thus far had limited success in revealing underlying mechanisms driving activity patterns. Here, we combine wavelet analysis, a type of frequency-based time-series analysis, with high-resolution activity data from accelerometers embedded in GPS collars to explore the effects of internal states (e.g., pregnancy) and external factors (e.g., seasonal dynamics of resources and weather) on activity patterns of the endangered giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ). Giant pandas exhibited higher frequency cycles during the winter when resources (e.g., water and forage) were relatively poor, as well as during spring, which includes the giant panda's mating season. During the summer and autumn when resources were abundant, pandas exhibited a regular activity pattern with activity peaks every 24 hr. A pregnant individual showed distinct differences in her activity pattern from other giant pandas for several months following parturition. These results indicate that animals adjust activity cycles to adapt to seasonal variation of the resources and unique physiological periods. Wavelet coherency analysis also verified the synchronization of giant panda activity level with air temperature and solar radiation at the 24-hr band. Our study also shows that wavelet analysis is an effective tool for analyzing high-resolution activity pattern data and its relationship to internal and external states, an approach that has the potential to inform wildlife conservation and management across species.

  9. Graphical Data Analysis on the Circle: Wrap-Around Time Series Plots for (Interrupted) Time Series Designs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Beasley, William Howard; Schuelke, Matthew

    2014-01-01

    Many data structures, particularly time series data, are naturally seasonal, cyclical, or otherwise circular. Past graphical methods for time series have focused on linear plots. In this article, we move graphical analysis onto the circle. We focus on 2 particular methods, one old and one new. Rose diagrams are circular histograms and can be produced in several different forms using the RRose software system. In addition, we propose, develop, illustrate, and provide software support for a new circular graphical method, called Wrap-Around Time Series Plots (WATS Plots), which is a graphical method useful to support time series analyses in general but in particular in relation to interrupted time series designs. We illustrate the use of WATS Plots with an interrupted time series design evaluating the effect of the Oklahoma City bombing on birthrates in Oklahoma County during the 10 years surrounding the bombing of the Murrah Building in Oklahoma City. We compare WATS Plots with linear time series representations and overlay them with smoothing and error bands. Each method is shown to have advantages in relation to the other; in our example, the WATS Plots more clearly show the existence and effect size of the fertility differential.

  10. ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES FOR THE CURRENCY PAIR CROATIAN KUNA / EURO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Martinović

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The domestic currency Croatian kuna (HRK was introduced in May 1995. To date, the Croatian National Bank (HNB, as a regulator and formulator of monetary policy in Croatia has operated a policy of stable exchange rate, typically referenced to the formal currency of the European Union euro (EUR. From the date of introduction of the euro 01/01/1999 until 01/01/2016 the value of the currency pair HRK / EUR changed in value by only 4.25% (HNB. Although the value of the Croatian kuna is relatively stable, there are some fluctuations on an annual level (e.g. in ­­­the last few years because of the global crisis as well as  on periodic levels within a year. The aim of this paper is to show the movement of the value of the currency pair since the beginning of 2002 to the present day (the time curve, analyze the correctness, trends and periodicity (seasonal behavior, if any exist.The research will be done using the method of Time Series Analysis, assuming that the external (global economy and internal factors (economic policy remain similar or the same. According to the results, further assessment of price developments in the period followed will be made by using the obtained predicative models. In the event that the curve contains the component of periodicity, the observed patterns will be studied further.

  11. Positioning women's and children's health in African union policy-making: a policy analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toure Kadidiatou

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background With limited time to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, progress towards improving women's and children's health needs to be accelerated. With Africa accounting for over half of the world's maternal and child deaths, the African Union (AU has a critical role in prioritizing related policies and catalysing required investments and action. In this paper, the authors assess the evolution of African Union policies related to women's and children's health, and analyze how these policies are prioritized and framed. Methods The main method used in this policy analysis was a document review of all African Union policies developed from 1963 to 2010, focusing specifically on policies that explicitly mention health. The findings from this document review were discussed with key actors to identify policy implications. Results With over 220 policies in total, peace and security is the most common AU policy topic. Social affairs and other development issues became more prominent in the 1990s. The number of policies that mentioned health rose steadily over the years (with 1 policy mentioning health in 1963 to 7 in 2010. This change was catalysed by factors such as: a favourable shift in AU priorities and systems towards development issues, spurred by the transition from the Organization of African Unity to the African Union; the mandate of the African Commission on Human and People's Rights; health-related advocacy initiatives, such as the Campaign for the Accelerated Reduction of Maternal Mortality in Africa (CARMMA; action and accountability requirements arising from international human rights treaties, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs, and new health-funding mechanisms, such as the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. Prioritization of women's and children's health issues in AU policies has been framed primarily by human rights, advocacy and accountability considerations, more by economic and health frames

  12. Positioning women's and children's health in African union policy-making: a policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toure, Kadidiatou; Sankore, Rotimi; Kuruvilla, Shyama; Scolaro, Elisa; Bustreo, Flavia; Osotimehin, Babatunde

    2012-02-16

    With limited time to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, progress towards improving women's and children's health needs to be accelerated. With Africa accounting for over half of the world's maternal and child deaths, the African Union (AU) has a critical role in prioritizing related policies and catalysing required investments and action. In this paper, the authors assess the evolution of African Union policies related to women's and children's health, and analyze how these policies are prioritized and framed. The main method used in this policy analysis was a document review of all African Union policies developed from 1963 to 2010, focusing specifically on policies that explicitly mention health. The findings from this document review were discussed with key actors to identify policy implications. With over 220 policies in total, peace and security is the most common AU policy topic. Social affairs and other development issues became more prominent in the 1990s. The number of policies that mentioned health rose steadily over the years (with 1 policy mentioning health in 1963 to 7 in 2010).This change was catalysed by factors such as: a favourable shift in AU priorities and systems towards development issues, spurred by the transition from the Organization of African Unity to the African Union; the mandate of the African Commission on Human and People's Rights; health-related advocacy initiatives, such as the Campaign for the Accelerated Reduction of Maternal Mortality in Africa (CARMMA); action and accountability requirements arising from international human rights treaties, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and new health-funding mechanisms, such as the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria.Prioritization of women's and children's health issues in AU policies has been framed primarily by human rights, advocacy and accountability considerations, more by economic and health frames looking at investments and impact. AU policies related

  13. Multidimensional scaling analysis of financial time series based on modified cross-sample entropy methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Jiayi; Shang, Pengjian; Xiong, Hui

    2018-06-01

    Stocks, as the concrete manifestation of financial time series with plenty of potential information, are often used in the study of financial time series. In this paper, we utilize the stock data to recognize their patterns through out the dissimilarity matrix based on modified cross-sample entropy, then three-dimensional perceptual maps of the results are provided through multidimensional scaling method. Two modified multidimensional scaling methods are proposed in this paper, that is, multidimensional scaling based on Kronecker-delta cross-sample entropy (MDS-KCSE) and multidimensional scaling based on permutation cross-sample entropy (MDS-PCSE). These two methods use Kronecker-delta based cross-sample entropy and permutation based cross-sample entropy to replace the distance or dissimilarity measurement in classical multidimensional scaling (MDS). Multidimensional scaling based on Chebyshev distance (MDSC) is employed to provide a reference for comparisons. Our analysis reveals a clear clustering both in synthetic data and 18 indices from diverse stock markets. It implies that time series generated by the same model are easier to have similar irregularity than others, and the difference in the stock index, which is caused by the country or region and the different financial policies, can reflect the irregularity in the data. In the synthetic data experiments, not only the time series generated by different models can be distinguished, the one generated under different parameters of the same model can also be detected. In the financial data experiment, the stock indices are clearly divided into five groups. Through analysis, we find that they correspond to five regions, respectively, that is, Europe, North America, South America, Asian-Pacific (with the exception of mainland China), mainland China and Russia. The results also demonstrate that MDS-KCSE and MDS-PCSE provide more effective divisions in experiments than MDSC.

  14. Strategic Sequencing for State Distributed PV Policies: A Quantitative Analysis of Policy Impacts and Interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doris, E.; Krasko, V.A.

    2012-10-01

    State and local policymakers show increasing interest in spurring the development of customer-sited distributed generation (DG), in particular solar photovoltaic (PV) markets. Prompted by that interest, this analysis examines the use of state policy as a tool to support the development of a robust private investment market. This analysis builds on previous studies that focus on government subsidies to reduce installation costs of individual projects and provides an evaluation of the impacts of policies on stimulating private market development.

  15. Implementation lessons for school food policies and marketing restrictions in the Philippines: a qualitative policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeve, Erica; Thow, Anne Marie; Bell, Colin; Engelhardt, Katrin; Gamolo-Naliponguit, Ella Cecilia; Go, John Juliard; Sacks, Gary

    2018-01-23

    The school environment can enhance children's skills, knowledge and behaviours in relation to healthy eating. However, in many countries, unhealthy foods are commonly available in schools, and children can be exposed to aggressive marketing by the food industry. Taking the perspective of policymakers, this study aimed to identify barriers and enablers to effective school food policy development and implementation in the Philippines. In May 2016, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 21 policymakers and stakeholders involved in school food policymaking and implementation in the Philippines. The Health Policy Analysis Triangle was used to identify interview questions and to guide the thematic analysis. These included the political and socio-environmental context, strengths and limitations of existing policy content, roles and behaviours of actors, implementation processes, policy outcomes, and opportunities to improve policy coherence. The Department of Education's policy 'Orders' represented a relatively strong policy framework for the education sector of the Philippines. However, a lack of human and financial resources for implementation, planning, and policy enforcement limited the impact of the policy on the healthiness of school food provision. Ambiguity in policy wording allowed a wide interpretation of the foods eligible to be provided in schools, and led to difficulties in effective monitoring and enforcement. Food companies used existing relationships with schools to promote their brands and compromise the establishment of a stronger food policy agenda. We found a motivated group of actors engaging in policy-oriented learning and advocating for a stronger policy alternative so as to improve the school food environment. The adoption of policy mechanisms being used to promote healthy dietary practices in the school setting will be strengthened by more robust implementation planning processes, and resources to support implementation and enforcement

  16. Time Series Analysis of the Quasar PKS 1749+096

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Michael T.; Balonek, T. J.

    2011-01-01

    Multiple timescales of variability are observed in quasars at a variety of wavelengths, the nature of which is not fully understood. In 2007 and 2008, the quasar 1749+096 underwent two unprecedented optical outbursts, reaching a brightness never before seen in our twenty years of monitoring. Much lower level activity had been seen prior to these two outbursts. We present an analysis of the timescales of variability over the two regimes using a variety of statistical techniques. An IDL software package developed at Colgate University over the summer of 2010, the Quasar User Interface (QUI), provides effective computation of four time series functions for analyzing underlying trends present in generic, discretely sampled data sets. Using the Autocorrelation Function, Structure Function, and Power Spectrum, we are able to quickly identify possible variability timescales. QUI is also capable of computing the Cross-Correlation Function for comparing variability at different wavelengths. We apply these algorithms to 1749+096 and present our analysis of the timescales for this object. Funding for this project was received from Colgate University, the Justus and Jayne Schlichting Student Research Fund, and the NASA / New York Space Grant.

  17. Antarctica: The Continuing Experiment. Foreign Policy Association Headline Series, No. 273.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quigg, Philip W.

    One of a series of booklets on world issues examines the sharpened differences between those nations that have declared sovereignty over parts of Antarctica and those that have not; between those nations that have arbitrarily assumed responsibility for the administration of Antarctica and the smaller, more numerous nations that believe their…

  18. Nutritional Problems and Policy in Tanzania. Cornell International Nutrition Monograph Series, Number 7 (1980).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mgaza, Olyvia

    This monograph discusses policies designed to deal with food and nutrition problems in Tanzania. Available information on food supplies and nutritional conditions in Tanzania clearly shows that the country faces nutritional problems; protein energy malnutrition is the most serious and requires priority action. Iron deficiency anemia, goiter, and…

  19. Course Placement Series: Spotlight on Eighth Grade Algebra I. Policy Brief

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tennessee Department of Education, 2015

    2015-01-01

    The Tennessee Department of Education explored course enrollment patterns in an effort to better understand in which courses students are enrolling and whether course enrollment policies and procedures are promoting students' interests. This report focuses on eighth grade Algebra I enrollment, which can propel students to take more rigorous math…

  20. Course Placement Series: Spotlight on High School Math Course Enrollment. Policy Brief

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tennessee Department of Education, 2015

    2015-01-01

    The Tennessee Department of Education explored course enrollment patterns in an effort to better understand in which courses students are enrolling and whether course enrollment policies and procedures are promoting students' interests. This report focuses on math course enrollment patterns throughout high school by following the 2013-14 twelfth…

  1. Public Marketing: An Alternative Policy Decision-Making Idea for Small Cities. Community Development Research Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyers, James; And Others

    The concept of public marketing presents a strategy for the systems approach to community development that would facilitate the community decision making process via improved communication. Basic aspects of the social marketing process include: (1) product policy; (2) channels of distribution; (3) pricing (perceived price vs quality and quantity…

  2. Policy Patrons: Philanthropy, Education Reform, and the Politics of Influence. Educational Innovations Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins-Stange, Megan E.

    2016-01-01

    "Policy Patrons" offers a rare behind-the-scenes view of decision making inside four influential education philanthropies: the Ford Foundation, the W. K. Kellogg Foundation, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the Eli and Edythe Broad Foundation. The outcome is an intriguing, thought-provoking look at the impact of current…

  3. Financing Postsecondary Education: Policy Development and Decision Making. A Series of Conferences. Conference Handbook.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Education Commission of the States, Denver, CO.

    This handbook attempts to improve policy development and decision making relative to financing postsecondary education. Sections cover: (1) descriptions and comparisons of selected reports relative to recommendations for postsecondary financing; (2) position statements and/or comments on postsecondary financing from certain cooperative sponsoring…

  4. Public opinion and environmental policy output: a cross-national analysis of energy policies in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Brilé; Böhmelt, Tobias; Ward, Hugh

    2017-11-01

    This article studies how public opinion is associated with the introduction of renewable energy policies in Europe. While research increasingly seeks to model the link between public opinion and environmental policies, the empirical evidence is largely based on a single case: the US. This limits the generalizability of findings and we argue accordingly for a systematic, quantitative study of how public opinion drives environmental policies in another context. Theoretically, we combine arguments behind the political survival of democratic leaders with electoral success and environmental politics. Ultimately, we suggest that office-seeking leaders introduce policies that seem favorable to the domestic audience; if the public prefers environmental protection, the government introduces such policies in turn. The main contribution of this research is the cross-country empirical analysis, where we combine data on the public’s environmental attitudes and renewable energy policy outputs in a European context between 1974 and 2015. We show that as public opinion shifts towards prioritizing the environment, there is a significant and positive effect on the rate of renewable energy policy outputs by governments in Europe. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic, quantitative study of public opinion and environmental policies across a large set of countries, and we demonstrate that the mechanisms behind the introduction of renewable energy policies follow major trends across European states.

  5. Representations of women and drug use in policy: A critical policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Natalie; Bull, Melissa

    2018-06-01

    Contemporary research in the drugs field has demonstrated a number of gender differences in patterns and experiences of substance use, and the design and provision of gender-responsive interventions has been identified as an important policy issue. Consequently, whether and how domestic drug policies attend to women and gender issues is an important question for investigation. This article presents a policy audit and critical analysis of Australian national and state and territory policy documents. It identifies and discusses two key styles of problematisation of women's drug use in policy: 1) drug use and its effect on women's reproductive role (including a focus on pregnant women and women who are mothers), and 2) drug use and its relationship to women's vulnerability to harm (including violent and sexual victimisation, trauma, and mental health issues). Whilst these are important areas for policy to address, we argue that such representations of women who use drugs tend to reinforce particular understandings of women and drug use, while at the same time contributing to areas of 'policy silence' or neglect. In particular, the policy documents analysed are largely silent about the harm reduction needs of all women, as well as the needs of women who are not mothers, young women, older women, transwomen or other women deemed to be outside of dominant normative reproductive discourse. This analysis is important because understanding how women's drug use is problematised and identifying areas of policy silence provides a foundation for redressing gaps in policy, and for assessing the likely effectiveness of current and future policy approaches. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Analysis of time series and size of equivalent sample

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernal, Nestor; Molina, Alicia; Pabon, Daniel; Martinez, Jorge

    2004-01-01

    In a meteorological context, a first approach to the modeling of time series is to use models of autoregressive type. This allows one to take into account the meteorological persistence or temporal behavior, thereby identifying the memory of the analyzed process. This article seeks to pre-sent the concept of the size of an equivalent sample, which helps to identify in the data series sub periods with a similar structure. Moreover, in this article we examine the alternative of adjusting the variance of the series, keeping in mind its temporal structure, as well as an adjustment to the covariance of two time series. This article presents two examples, the first one corresponding to seven simulated series with autoregressive structure of first order, and the second corresponding to seven meteorological series of anomalies of the air temperature at the surface in two Colombian regions

  7. Formal analysis of XACML policies using SMT

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Turkmen, F.; den Hartog, J.; Ranise, S.; Zannone, N.

    2017-01-01

    The eXtensible Access Control Markup Language (XACML) has attracted significant attention from both industry and academia, and has become the de facto standard for the specification of access control policies. However, its XML-based verbose syntax and rich set of constructs make the authoring of

  8. Analysis of State Bullying Laws and Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuart-Cassel, Victoria; Bell, Ariana; Springer, J. Fred

    2011-01-01

    Bullying in schools has become widely viewed as an urgent social, health, and education concern that has moved to the forefront of public debate on school legislation and policy. The Columbine High School shooting in 1999 was the first of many high-profile incidents of violent behavior that appeared to implicate bullying as an underlying cause…

  9. Analysis of monetary and fiscal policy mix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Economies are constantly hit by various shocks-that effect aggregate demand and aggregate supply and have the potential to generate recession or expansion, respective a high level of unemployment and high inflation rate. Governments use fiscal and monetary policies to try to stabilioze the economy.

  10. Economic and policy analysis for solar PV systems in Indiana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Jinho; Tyner, Wallace E.

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, the energy market in the US and globally is expanding the production of renewable energy. Solar energy for electricity is also expanding in the US. Indiana is one of the states expanding solar energy with solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Therefore, we conduct benefit cost analysis with several uncertain input variables to determine the economics of adopting solar PV systems in Indiana based on policy instruments that could increase adoption of solar PV systems. The specific objectives are analyses of the cost distribution of solar PV systems compared with grid electricity in homes and estimating the probability that solar can be cheaper than electricity from grids under different policy combinations. We first do the analysis under current policy and then the analysis under potential policy options for a variety of scenarios. Also, the results inform government policy makers on how effective the alternative policies for encouraging solar PV systems are. The results show that current policies are important in reducing the cost of solar PV systems. However, with current policies, there is only 50–50 chance of solar being cheaper than electricity from grids. If potential policies are implemented, solar PV systems can be more economical than grid electricity. - Highlights: • We investigate the economics of solar PV systems based on policy instruments. • We do scenario analyses under different combinations of policies. • We examine the probability of solar being cheaper than grid electricity for each scenario. • With current policies, there is 50–50 chance of solar being cheaper than the grid. • With depreciation and carbon tax, solar is much more economical than the grid

  11. Policy Analysis of the English Graduation Benchmark in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Chih-Min

    2012-01-01

    To nudge students to study English and to improve their English proficiency, many universities in Taiwan have imposed an English graduation benchmark on their students. This article reviews this policy, using the theoretic framework for education policy analysis proposed by Haddad and Demsky (1995). The author presents relevant research findings,…

  12. Policy Research and Analysis Organizations: An Account of Recent ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    policy research organizations operate, and touches on the negligible influence that the latter have ... organizations under considerations. The interviews were ... Drawing from the theoretical and empirical literatures, the next section sets ... institutionalizing policy research and analysis, however, politicians and bureaucrats ...

  13. Policy analysis of the English graduation benchmark in Taiwan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    To nudge students to study English and to improve their English proficiency, many universities in Taiwan have imposed an English graduation benchmark on their students. This article reviews this policy, using the theoretic framework for education policy analysis proposed by Haddad and Demsky (1995). The author ...

  14. Health policy, health systems research and analysis capacity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Health Policy and Systems Research and Analysis (HPSR&A) is an applied science that deals with complexity as it tries to provide lessons, tools and methods to understand and improve health systems and health policy. It is defined by the kinds of questions asked rather than a particular methodology.

  15. Interglacial climate dynamics and advanced time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudelsee, Manfred; Bermejo, Miguel; Köhler, Peter; Lohmann, Gerrit

    2013-04-01

    Studying the climate dynamics of past interglacials (IGs) helps to better assess the anthropogenically influenced dynamics of the current IG, the Holocene. We select the IG portions from the EPICA Dome C ice core archive, which covers the past 800 ka, to apply methods of statistical time series analysis (Mudelsee 2010). The analysed variables are deuterium/H (indicating temperature) (Jouzel et al. 2007), greenhouse gases (Siegenthaler et al. 2005, Loulergue et al. 2008, L¨ü thi et al. 2008) and a model-co-derived climate radiative forcing (Köhler et al. 2010). We select additionally high-resolution sea-surface-temperature records from the marine sedimentary archive. The first statistical method, persistence time estimation (Mudelsee 2002) lets us infer the 'climate memory' property of IGs. Second, linear regression informs about long-term climate trends during IGs. Third, ramp function regression (Mudelsee 2000) is adapted to look on abrupt climate changes during IGs. We compare the Holocene with previous IGs in terms of these mathematical approaches, interprete results in a climate context, assess uncertainties and the requirements to data from old IGs for yielding results of 'acceptable' accuracy. This work receives financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (Project ClimSens within the DFG Research Priority Program INTERDYNAMIK) and the European Commission (Marie Curie Initial Training Network LINC, No. 289447, within the 7th Framework Programme). References Jouzel J, Masson-Delmotte V, Cattani O, Dreyfus G, Falourd S, Hoffmann G, Minster B, Nouet J, Barnola JM, Chappellaz J, Fischer H, Gallet JC, Johnsen S, Leuenberger M, Loulergue L, Luethi D, Oerter H, Parrenin F, Raisbeck G, Raynaud D, Schilt A, Schwander J, Selmo E, Souchez R, Spahni R, Stauffer B, Steffensen JP, Stenni B, Stocker TF, Tison JL, Werner M, Wolff EW (2007) Orbital and millennial Antarctic climate variability over the past 800,000 years. Science 317:793. Köhler P, Bintanja R

  16. The Prediction of Teacher Turnover Employing Time Series Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Crist H.

    The purpose of this study was to combine knowledge of teacher demographic data with time-series forecasting methods to predict teacher turnover. Moving averages and exponential smoothing were used to forecast discrete time series. The study used data collected from the 22 largest school districts in Iowa, designated as FACT schools. Predictions…

  17. ON THE FOURIER AND WAVELET ANALYSIS OF CORONAL TIME SERIES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auchère, F.; Froment, C.; Bocchialini, K.; Buchlin, E.; Solomon, J.

    2016-01-01

    Using Fourier and wavelet analysis, we critically re-assess the significance of our detection of periodic pulsations in coronal loops. We show that the proper identification of the frequency dependence and statistical properties of the different components of the power spectra provides a strong argument against the common practice of data detrending, which tends to produce spurious detections around the cut-off frequency of the filter. In addition, the white and red noise models built into the widely used wavelet code of Torrence and Compo cannot, in most cases, adequately represent the power spectra of coronal time series, thus also possibly causing false positives. Both effects suggest that several reports of periodic phenomena should be re-examined. The Torrence and Compo code nonetheless effectively computes rigorous confidence levels if provided with pertinent models of mean power spectra, and we describe the appropriate manner in which to call its core routines. We recall the meaning of the default confidence levels output from the code, and we propose new Monte-Carlo-derived levels that take into account the total number of degrees of freedom in the wavelet spectra. These improvements allow us to confirm that the power peaks that we detected have a very low probability of being caused by noise.

  18. ON THE FOURIER AND WAVELET ANALYSIS OF CORONAL TIME SERIES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auchère, F.; Froment, C.; Bocchialini, K.; Buchlin, E.; Solomon, J., E-mail: frederic.auchere@ias.u-psud.fr [Institut d’Astrophysique Spatiale, CNRS, Univ. Paris-Sud, Université Paris-Saclay, Bât. 121, F-91405 Orsay (France)

    2016-07-10

    Using Fourier and wavelet analysis, we critically re-assess the significance of our detection of periodic pulsations in coronal loops. We show that the proper identification of the frequency dependence and statistical properties of the different components of the power spectra provides a strong argument against the common practice of data detrending, which tends to produce spurious detections around the cut-off frequency of the filter. In addition, the white and red noise models built into the widely used wavelet code of Torrence and Compo cannot, in most cases, adequately represent the power spectra of coronal time series, thus also possibly causing false positives. Both effects suggest that several reports of periodic phenomena should be re-examined. The Torrence and Compo code nonetheless effectively computes rigorous confidence levels if provided with pertinent models of mean power spectra, and we describe the appropriate manner in which to call its core routines. We recall the meaning of the default confidence levels output from the code, and we propose new Monte-Carlo-derived levels that take into account the total number of degrees of freedom in the wavelet spectra. These improvements allow us to confirm that the power peaks that we detected have a very low probability of being caused by noise.

  19. Prediction of solar cycle 24 using fourier series analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khalid, M.; Sultana, M.; Zaidi, F.

    2014-01-01

    Predicting the behavior of solar activity has become very significant. It is due to its influence on Earth and the surrounding environment. Apt predictions of the amplitude and timing of the next solar cycle will aid in the estimation of the several results of Space Weather. In the past, many prediction procedures have been used and have been successful to various degrees in the field of solar activity forecast. In this study, Solar cycle 24 is forecasted by the Fourier series method. Comparative analysis has been made by auto regressive integrated moving averages method. From sources, January 2008 was the minimum preceding solar cycle 24, the amplitude and shape of solar cycle 24 is approximate on monthly number of sunspots. This forecast framework approximates a mean solar cycle 24, with the maximum appearing during May 2014 (+- 8 months), with most sunspot of 98 +- 10. Solar cycle 24 will be ending in June 2020 (+- 7 months). The difference between two consecutive peak values of solar cycles (i.e. solar cycle 23 and 24 ) is 165 months(+- 6 months). (author)

  20. Returns to Investment in Ontario University Education, 1960-1990, and Implications for Tuition Fee Policy. Discussion Series, Issue 5.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stager, David A. A.

    This analysis of Ontario's returns to investment and implications for tuition fee policy updates a 1989 publication titled "Focus on Fees." The paper examines: data on public and private return on investment (ROI) from university education, pattern of ROI rates over time, and impact of tuition fee levels on estimated ROI for various…

  1. Time-series-analysis techniques applied to nuclear-material accounting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pike, D.H.; Morrison, G.W.; Downing, D.J.

    1982-05-01

    This document is designed to introduce the reader to the applications of Time Series Analysis techniques to Nuclear Material Accountability data. Time series analysis techniques are designed to extract information from a collection of random variables ordered by time by seeking to identify any trends, patterns, or other structure in the series. Since nuclear material accountability data is a time series, one can extract more information using time series analysis techniques than by using other statistical techniques. Specifically, the objective of this document is to examine the applicability of time series analysis techniques to enhance loss detection of special nuclear materials. An introductory section examines the current industry approach which utilizes inventory differences. The error structure of inventory differences is presented. Time series analysis techniques discussed include the Shewhart Control Chart, the Cumulative Summation of Inventory Differences Statistics (CUSUM) and the Kalman Filter and Linear Smoother

  2. A comparative analysis of capacity adequacy policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doorman, Gerard; Botterud, Audun; Wolfgang, Ove

    2007-06-01

    In this paper a stochastic dynamic optimization model is used to analyze the effect of different generation adequacy policies in restructured power systems. The expansion decisions of profit-maximizing investors are simulated under a number of different market designs: Energy Only with and without a price cap, Capacity Payment, Capacity Obligation, Capacity Subscription, and Demand Elasticity. The results show that the overall social welfare is reduced compared to a centralized social welfare optimization for all policies except Capacity Subscription and Demand Elasticity. In particular, an energy only market with a low price cap leads to a significant increase in involuntary load shedding. Capacity payments and obligations give additional investment incentives and more generating capacity, but also result in a considerable transfer of wealth from consumers to producers due to the capacity payments. Increased demand elasticity increases social welfare, but also results in a transfer from producers to consumers, compared to the theoretical social welfare optimum. In contrast, the capacity subscription policy increases the social welfare, and both producers and consumers benefit. This is possible because capacity subscription explicitly utilizes differences in consumers' preferences for uninterrupted supply. This advantage must be weighed against the cost of implementation, which is not included in the model.

  3. On-line analysis of reactor noise using time-series analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGevna, V.G.

    1981-10-01

    A method to allow use of time series analysis for on-line noise analysis has been developed. On-line analysis of noise in nuclear power reactors has been limited primarily to spectral analysis and related frequency domain techniques. Time series analysis has many distinct advantages over spectral analysis in the automated processing of reactor noise. However, fitting an autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) model to time series data involves non-linear least squares estimation. Unless a high speed, general purpose computer is available, the calculations become too time consuming for on-line applications. To eliminate this problem, a special purpose algorithm was developed for fitting ARMA models. While it is based on a combination of steepest descent and Taylor series linearization, properties of the ARMA model are used so that the auto- and cross-correlation functions can be used to eliminate the need for estimating derivatives. The number of calculations, per iteration varies lineegardless of the mee 0.2% yield strength displayed anisotropy, with axial and circumferential values being greater than radial. For CF8-CPF8 and CF8M-CPF8M castings to meet current ASME Code S acid fuel cells

  4. Social media for public health: an exploratory policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fast, Ingrid; Sørensen, Kristine; Brand, Helmut; Suggs, L Suzanne

    2015-02-01

    To accomplish the aims of public health practice and policy today, new forms of communication and education are being applied. Social media are increasingly relevant for public health and used by various actors. Apart from benefits, there can also be risks in using social media, but policies regulating engagement in social media is not well researched. This study examined European public health-related organizations' social media policies and describes the main components of existing policies. This research used a mixed methods approach. A content analysis of social media policies from European institutions, non-government organizations (NGOs) and social media platforms was conducted. Next, individuals responsible for social media in their organization or projects completed a survey about their social media policy. Seventy-five per cent of institutions, NGOs and platforms had a social media policy available. The primary aspects covered within existing policies included data and privacy protection, intellectual property and copyright protection and regulations for the engagement in social media. Policies were intended to regulate staff use, to secure the liability of the institution and social responsibility. Respondents also stressed the importance of self-responsibility when using social media. This study of social media policies for public health in Europe provides a first snapshot of the existence and characteristics of social media policies among European health organizations. Policies tended to focus on legal aspects, rather than the health of the social media user. The effect of such policies on social media adoption and usage behaviour remains to be examined. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

  5. Impact Of Monetary Policy On Financial Asset Returns: An Analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Impact Of Monetary Policy On Financial Asset Returns: An Analysis Of Selected Stocks From The Nigerian Capital Market. ... Journal of Research in National Development. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current ...

  6. A Policy Analysis of Strategies to Manage Medical Holdovers

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jones, Tammie M

    2005-01-01

    This study is a policy analysis of the Community Based Health Care Initiative (CBHCI) implemented to address the problems for Soldiers mobilized and deployed in support of Operations Noble Eagle, Enduring Freedom, and Iraqi Freedom...

  7. A fully feminist foreign policy? : A postcolonial feminist analysis of Sweden's Feminist Foreign Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Nylund, Mia-Lie

    2017-01-01

    This thesis is a postcolonial feminist discourse analysis of Sweden’s Feminist Foreign Policy. Sweden’s Feminist Foreign Policy is unique to the world, but it is not the only case of incorporating a gender perspective as a central part of national or international politics. Feminism and gender perspectives are increasingly receiving attention and space in global politics. The Swedish case could therefore inform us about where politics are heading. Previous research on the Feminist Foreign Pol...

  8. Analysis of complex time series using refined composite multiscale entropy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Shuen-De; Wu, Chiu-Wen; Lin, Shiou-Gwo; Lee, Kung-Yen; Peng, Chung-Kang

    2014-01-01

    Multiscale entropy (MSE) is an effective algorithm for measuring the complexity of a time series that has been applied in many fields successfully. However, MSE may yield an inaccurate estimation of entropy or induce undefined entropy because the coarse-graining procedure reduces the length of a time series considerably at large scales. Composite multiscale entropy (CMSE) was recently proposed to improve the accuracy of MSE, but it does not resolve undefined entropy. Here we propose a refined composite multiscale entropy (RCMSE) to improve CMSE. For short time series analyses, we demonstrate that RCMSE increases the accuracy of entropy estimation and reduces the probability of inducing undefined entropy.

  9. Partner Country Series: Understanding Energy Challenges in India - Policies, Players and Issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    A combination of rapidly increasing energy demand and fuel imports plus growing concern about economic and environmental consequences is generating growing calls for effective and thorough energy governance in India. Numerous policy reforms over the past 20 years have shifted the country’s energy sector from a state-dominated system towards one that is based on market principles. However, with the reform process left unfinished, India now finds itself trapped halfway along the transition to an open and well-performing energy sector. India suffered from the largest power outage ever in late July 2012, affecting nearly half of the population. While this incident highlights the importance of modern and smart energy systems, it indicates that the country is increasingly unable to deliver a secure supply of energy to its population, a quarter of which still lacks access to electricity. Understanding Energy Challenges in India aims to provide an informative and holistic understanding of India’s energy sector to stakeholders in India as well as the broad public. The publication explores in detail the policies, players and issues of the country’s power, coal, oil and gas, renewables and nuclear sectors. It also highlights the key challenges India faces, challenges that must be resolved for the evolution of the fast-growing country’s energy sector towards a sustainable energy future and eventually critical for the prospects of the Indian and global economies.

  10. Evaluating the impact of flexible alcohol trading hours on violence: an interrupted time series analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David K Humphreys

    Full Text Available On November 24(th 2005, the Government of England and Wales removed regulatory restrictions on the times at which licensed premises could sell alcohol. This study tests availability theory by treating the implementation of Licensing Act (2003 as a natural experiment in alcohol policy.An interrupted time series design was employed to estimate the Act's immediate and delayed impact on violence in the City of Manchester (Population 464,200. We collected police recorded rates of violence, robbery, and total crime between the 1st of February 2004 and the 31st of December 2007. Events were aggregated by week, yielding a total of 204 observations (95 pre-, and 109 post-intervention. Secondary analysis examined changes in daily patterns of violence. Pre- and post-intervention events were separated into four three-hour segments 18∶00-20∶59, 21∶00-23.59, 00∶00-02∶59, 03∶00-05∶59.Analysis found no evidence that the Licensing Act (2003 affected the overall volume of violence. However, analyses of night-time violence found a gradual and permanent shift of weekend violence into later parts of the night. The results estimated an initial increase of 27.5% between 03∶00 to 06∶00 (ω = 0.2433, 95% CI = 0.06, 0.42, which increased to 36% by the end of the study period (δ = -0.897, 95% CI = -1.02, -0.77.This study found no evidence that a national policy increasing the physical availability of alcohol affected the overall volume of violence. There was, however, evidence suggesting that the policy may be associated with changes to patterns of violence in the early morning (3 a.m. to 6 a.m..

  11. Unsupervised land cover change detection: meaningful sequential time series analysis

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Salmon, BP

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available An automated land cover change detection method is proposed that uses coarse spatial resolution hyper-temporal earth observation satellite time series data. The study compared three different unsupervised clustering approaches that operate on short...

  12. Analysis of your professional liability insurance policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    SADUSK, J F; HASSARD, H; WATERSON, R

    1958-01-01

    The most important lessons for the physician to learn in regard to his professional liability insurance coverage are the following:1. The physician should carefully read his professional liability policy and should secure the educated aid of his attorney and his insurance broker, if they are conversant with this field.2. He should particularly read the definition of coverage and carefully survey the exclusion clauses which may deny him coverage under certain circumstances.3. If the physician is in partnership or in a group, he should be certain that he has contingent partnership coverage.4. The physician should accept coverage only from an insurance carrier of sufficient size and stability that he can be sure his coverage will be guaranteed for "latent liability" claims as the years go along-certainly for his lifetime.5. The insurance carrier offering the professional liability policy should be prepared to offer coverages up to at least $100,000/$300,000.6. The physician should be assured that the insurance carrier has claims-handling personnel and legal counsel who are experienced and expert in the professional liability field and who are locally available for service.7. The physician is best protected by a local or state group program, next best by a national group program, and last, by individual coverage.8. The physician should look with suspicion on a cancellation clause in which his policy may be summarily cancelled on brief notice.9. The physician should not buy professional liability insurance on the basis of price alone; adequacy of coverage and service and a good insurance company for his protection should be the deciding factors.

  13. Correlation between detrended fluctuation analysis and the Lempel-Ziv complexity in nonlinear time series analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang You-Fu; Liu Shu-Lin; Jiang Rui-Hong; Liu Ying-Hui

    2013-01-01

    We study the correlation between detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and the Lempel-Ziv complexity (LZC) in nonlinear time series analysis in this paper. Typical dynamic systems including a logistic map and a Duffing model are investigated. Moreover, the influence of Gaussian random noise on both the DFA and LZC are analyzed. The results show a high correlation between the DFA and LZC, which can quantify the non-stationarity and the nonlinearity of the time series, respectively. With the enhancement of the random component, the exponent a and the normalized complexity index C show increasing trends. In addition, C is found to be more sensitive to the fluctuation in the nonlinear time series than α. Finally, the correlation between the DFA and LZC is applied to the extraction of vibration signals for a reciprocating compressor gas valve, and an effective fault diagnosis result is obtained

  14. Advances in Antithetic Time Series Analysis : Separating Fact from Artifact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Ridley

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The problem of biased time series mathematical model parameter estimates is well known to be insurmountable. When used to predict future values by extrapolation, even a de minimis bias will eventually grow into a large bias, with misleading results. This paper elucidates how combining antithetic time series' solves this baffling problem of bias in the fitted and forecast values by dynamic bias cancellation. Instead of growing to infinity, the average error can converge to a constant. (original abstract

  15. Data imputation analysis for Cosmic Rays time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, R. C.; Lucio, P. S.; Fernandez, J. H.

    2017-05-01

    The occurrence of missing data concerning Galactic Cosmic Rays time series (GCR) is inevitable since loss of data is due to mechanical and human failure or technical problems and different periods of operation of GCR stations. The aim of this study was to perform multiple dataset imputation in order to depict the observational dataset. The study has used the monthly time series of GCR Climax (CLMX) and Roma (ROME) from 1960 to 2004 to simulate scenarios of 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% and 90% of missing data compared to observed ROME series, with 50 replicates. Then, the CLMX station as a proxy for allocation of these scenarios was used. Three different methods for monthly dataset imputation were selected: AMÉLIA II - runs the bootstrap Expectation Maximization algorithm, MICE - runs an algorithm via Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations and MTSDI - an Expectation Maximization algorithm-based method for imputation of missing values in multivariate normal time series. The synthetic time series compared with the observed ROME series has also been evaluated using several skill measures as such as RMSE, NRMSE, Agreement Index, R, R2, F-test and t-test. The results showed that for CLMX and ROME, the R2 and R statistics were equal to 0.98 and 0.96, respectively. It was observed that increases in the number of gaps generate loss of quality of the time series. Data imputation was more efficient with MTSDI method, with negligible errors and best skill coefficients. The results suggest a limit of about 60% of missing data for imputation, for monthly averages, no more than this. It is noteworthy that CLMX, ROME and KIEL stations present no missing data in the target period. This methodology allowed reconstructing 43 time series.

  16. Geomechanical time series and its singularity spectrum analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lyubushin, Alexei A.; Kaláb, Zdeněk; Lednická, Markéta

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 47, č. 1 (2012), s. 69-77 ISSN 1217-8977 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA105/09/0089 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30860518 Keywords : geomechanical time series * singularity spectrum * time series segmentation * laser distance meter Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 0.347, year: 2012 http://www.akademiai.com/content/88v4027758382225/fulltext.pdf

  17. Policy analysis of electricity demand flexibility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Katz, Jonas

    and decision costs would generate around half of the ideal gains and could be deemed sufficiently beneficial during an initial phase. After consumers gained experience with dynamic pricing, they should be transferred to the more complex and efficient schemes, though. Focussing on the installation of automation...... cost reduction, resulting in lower levels of investment in automation than what could be expected based on average prices. A policy intervention could be considered to initialise adoption, depending on the further technology cost development. Overall, the thesis improves the understanding...

  18. Southeast Regional Clean Energy Policy Analysis (Revised)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McLaren, J.

    2011-04-01

    More than half of the electricity produced in the southeastern states is fuelled by coal. Although the region produces some coal, most of the states depend heavily on coal imports. Many of the region's aging coal power facilities are planned for retirement within the next 20 years. However, estimates indicate that a 20% increase in capacity is needed over that time to meet the rapidly growing demand. The most common incentives for energy efficiency in the Southeast are loans and rebates; however, total public spending on energy efficiency is limited. The most common state-level policies to support renewable energy development are personal and corporate tax incentives and loans. The region produced 1.8% of the electricity from renewable resources other than conventional hydroelectricity in 2009, half of the national average. There is significant potential for development of a biomass market in the region, as well as use of local wind, solar, methane-to-energy, small hydro, and combined heat and power resources. Options are offered for expanding and strengthening state-level policies such as decoupling, integrated resource planning, building codes, net metering, and interconnection standards to support further clean energy development. Benefits would include energy security, job creation, insurance against price fluctuations, increased value of marginal lands, and local and global environmental paybacks.

  19. Southeast Regional Clean Energy Policy Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McLaren, Joyce [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2011-04-01

    More than half of the electricity produced in the southeastern states is fuelled by coal. Although the region produces some coal, most of the states depend heavily on coal imports. Many of the region's aging coal power facilities are planned for retirement within the next 20 years. However, estimates indicate that a 20% increase in capacity is needed over that time to meet the rapidly growing demand. The most common incentives for energy efficiency in the Southeast are loans and rebates; however, total public spending on energy efficiency is limited. The most common state-level policies to support renewable energy development are personal and corporate tax incentives and loans. The region produced 1.8% of the electricity from renewable resources other than conventional hydroelectricity in 2009, half of the national average. There is significant potential for development of a biomass market in the region, as well as use of local wind, solar, methane-to-energy, small hydro, and combined heat and power resources. Options are offered for expanding and strengthening state-level policies such as decoupling, integrated resource planning, building codes, net metering, and interconnection standards to support further clean energy development. Benefits would include energy security, job creation, insurance against price fluctuations, increased value of marginal lands, and local and global environmental paybacks.

  20. A socio-historical approach to policy analysis: the case of the Brazilian Workers' Food Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa-Souza, Jamacy; Vieira-da-Silva, Ligia Maria; Pinell, Patrice

    2018-02-05

    Policy analyses based on traditional or structuralist definitions of the state are important, but they have some limitations for explaining processes related to policymaking, implementation, and results. Bourdieusian sociology links the analysis to objective and subjective dimensions of social practices and can help elucidate these phenomena. This article provides such empirical evidence by analyzing the social genesis of a Brazilian policy that currently serves 18 million workers and was established by the state in 1976 through the Fiscal Incentives Program for Workers' Nutrition (PIFAT/PAT). The study linked the analysis of the trajectory of social agents involved in the policy's formulation to the historical conditions that allowed the policy to exist in the first place. Although the literature treats the policy as a workers' food program (PAT), the current study showed that it actually represented a new model for paying financial subsidies to companies that provided food to their employees, meanwhile upgrading the commercial market for collective meals. The study further showed that the program emerged as an administrative policy, but linked to economic agents. The program became a specific social space in which issues related to workers' nutrition became secondary, but useful for disguising what had been an explicit side of its genesis, namely its essentially fiscal nature.

  1. Policy-Making Theory as an Analytical Framework in Policy Analysis: Implications for Research Design and Professional Advocacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldon, Michael R

    2016-01-01

    Policy studies are a recent addition to the American Physical Therapy Association's Research Agenda and are critical to our understanding of various federal, state, local, and organizational policies on the provision of physical therapist services across the continuum of care. Policy analyses that help to advance the profession's various policy agendas will require relevant theoretical frameworks to be credible. The purpose of this perspective article is to: (1) demonstrate the use of a policy-making theory as an analytical framework in a policy analysis and (2) discuss how sound policy analysis can assist physical therapists in becoming more effective change agents, policy advocates, and partners with other relevant stakeholder groups. An exploratory study of state agency policy responses to address work-related musculoskeletal disorders is provided as a contemporary example to illustrate key points and to demonstrate the importance of selecting a relevant analytical framework based on the context of the policy issue under investigation. © 2016 American Physical Therapy Association.

  2. Statistical network analysis for analyzing policy networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Robins, Garry; Lewis, Jenny; Wang, Peng

    2012-01-01

    and policy network methodology is the development of statistical modeling approaches that can accommodate such dependent data. In this article, we review three network statistical methods commonly used in the current literature: quadratic assignment procedures, exponential random graph models (ERGMs......To analyze social network data using standard statistical approaches is to risk incorrect inference. The dependencies among observations implied in a network conceptualization undermine standard assumptions of the usual general linear models. One of the most quickly expanding areas of social......), and stochastic actor-oriented models. We focus most attention on ERGMs by providing an illustrative example of a model for a strategic information network within a local government. We draw inferences about the structural role played by individuals recognized as key innovators and conclude that such an approach...

  3. Time Series Analysis of Wheat flour Price Shocks in Pakistan: A Case Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Asad Raza Abdi; Ali Hassan Halepoto; Aisha Bashir Shah; Faiz M. Shaikh

    2013-01-01

    The current research investigates the wheat flour Price Shocks in Pakistan: A case analysis. Data was collected by using secondary sources by using Time series Analysis, and data were analyzed by using SPSS-20 version. It was revealed that the price of wheat flour increases from last four decades, and trend of price shocks shows that due to certain market variation and supply and demand shocks also play a positive relationship in price shocks in the wheat prices. It was further revealed th...

  4. Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Chaolong

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1 is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

  5. Analysis of historical series of industrial demand of energy; Analisi delle serie storiche dei consumi energetici dell`industria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moauro, F. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy). Dip. Energia

    1995-03-01

    This paper reports a short term analysis of the Italian demand for energy fonts and a check of a statistic model supposing the industrial demand for energy fonts as a function of prices and production, according to neoclassic neoclassic micro economic theory. To this pourpose monthly time series of industrial consumption of main energy fonts in 6 sectors, industrial production indexes in the same sectors and indexes of energy prices (coal, natural gas, oil products, electricity) have been used. The statistic methodology refers to modern analysis of time series and specifically to transfer function models. These ones permit rigorous identification and representation of the most important dynamic relations between dependent variables (production and prices), as relation of an input-output system. The results have shown an important positive correlation between energy consumption with prices. Furthermore, it has been shown the reliability of forecasts and their use as monthly energy indicators.

  6. Unstable Periodic Orbit Analysis of Histograms of Chaotic Time Series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zoldi, S.M.

    1998-01-01

    Using the Lorenz equations, we have investigated whether unstable periodic orbits (UPOs) associated with a strange attractor may predict the occurrence of the robust sharp peaks in histograms of some experimental chaotic time series. Histograms with sharp peaks occur for the Lorenz parameter value r=60.0 but not for r=28.0 , and the sharp peaks for r=60.0 do not correspond to a histogram derived from any single UPO. However, we show that histograms derived from the time series of a non-Axiom-A chaotic system can be accurately predicted by an escape-time weighting of UPO histograms. copyright 1998 The American Physical Society

  7. Minimum entropy density method for the time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jeong Won; Park, Joongwoo Brian; Jo, Hang-Hyun; Yang, Jae-Suk; Moon, Hie-Tae

    2009-01-01

    The entropy density is an intuitive and powerful concept to study the complicated nonlinear processes derived from physical systems. We develop the minimum entropy density method (MEDM) to detect the structure scale of a given time series, which is defined as the scale in which the uncertainty is minimized, hence the pattern is revealed most. The MEDM is applied to the financial time series of Standard and Poor’s 500 index from February 1983 to April 2006. Then the temporal behavior of structure scale is obtained and analyzed in relation to the information delivery time and efficient market hypothesis.

  8. Multivariate Analysis of Schools and Educational Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiesling, Herbert J.

    This report describes a multivariate analysis technique that approaches the problems of educational production function analysis by (1) using comparable measures of output across large experiments, (2) accounting systematically for differences in socioeconomic background, and (3) treating the school as a complete system in which different…

  9. Multiattribute Utility Analysis: The Case of Filipino Rice Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Gordon C. Rausser; Joseph Yassour

    1981-01-01

    Major uncertainties and conflicting objectives often arise in public policy analysis. This paper advances a framework that is appropriate for public policy problems frequently encountered in agriculture and food systems. Among other possible benefits, its principal value is to provide focus on the major conflicts, trade-offs, and subjective perceptions among affected groups. It can be used to isolate major disagreements, needed empirical evidence, appropriate degrees of risk aversion, equity ...

  10. Dynamic Factor Analysis of Nonstationary Multivariate Time Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Peter C. M.; And Others

    1992-01-01

    The dynamic factor model proposed by P. C. Molenaar (1985) is exhibited, and a dynamic nonstationary factor model (DNFM) is constructed with latent factor series that have time-varying mean functions. The use of a DNFM is illustrated using data from a television viewing habits study. (SLD)

  11. Koopman Operator Framework for Time Series Modeling and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surana, Amit

    2018-01-01

    We propose an interdisciplinary framework for time series classification, forecasting, and anomaly detection by combining concepts from Koopman operator theory, machine learning, and linear systems and control theory. At the core of this framework is nonlinear dynamic generative modeling of time series using the Koopman operator which is an infinite-dimensional but linear operator. Rather than working with the underlying nonlinear model, we propose two simpler linear representations or model forms based on Koopman spectral properties. We show that these model forms are invariants of the generative model and can be readily identified directly from data using techniques for computing Koopman spectral properties without requiring the explicit knowledge of the generative model. We also introduce different notions of distances on the space of such model forms which is essential for model comparison/clustering. We employ the space of Koopman model forms equipped with distance in conjunction with classical machine learning techniques to develop a framework for automatic feature generation for time series classification. The forecasting/anomaly detection framework is based on using Koopman model forms along with classical linear systems and control approaches. We demonstrate the proposed framework for human activity classification, and for time series forecasting/anomaly detection in power grid application.

  12. Complexity analysis of the turbulent environmental fluid flow time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihailović, D. T.; Nikolić-Đorić, E.; Drešković, N.; Mimić, G.

    2014-02-01

    We have used the Kolmogorov complexities, sample and permutation entropies to quantify the randomness degree in river flow time series of two mountain rivers in Bosnia and Herzegovina, representing the turbulent environmental fluid, for the period 1926-1990. In particular, we have examined the monthly river flow time series from two rivers (the Miljacka and the Bosnia) in the mountain part of their flow and then calculated the Kolmogorov complexity (KL) based on the Lempel-Ziv Algorithm (LZA) (lower-KLL and upper-KLU), sample entropy (SE) and permutation entropy (PE) values for each time series. The results indicate that the KLL, KLU, SE and PE values in two rivers are close to each other regardless of the amplitude differences in their monthly flow rates. We have illustrated the changes in mountain river flow complexity by experiments using (i) the data set for the Bosnia River and (ii) anticipated human activities and projected climate changes. We have explored the sensitivity of considered measures in dependence on the length of time series. In addition, we have divided the period 1926-1990 into three subintervals: (a) 1926-1945, (b) 1946-1965, (c) 1966-1990, and calculated the KLL, KLU, SE, PE values for the various time series in these subintervals. It is found that during the period 1946-1965, there is a decrease in their complexities, and corresponding changes in the SE and PE, in comparison to the period 1926-1990. This complexity loss may be primarily attributed to (i) human interventions, after the Second World War, on these two rivers because of their use for water consumption and (ii) climate change in recent times.

  13. Bangladesh policy on prevention and control of non-communicable diseases: a policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biswas, Tuhin; Pervin, Sonia; Tanim, Md Imtiaz Alam; Niessen, Louis; Islam, Anwar

    2017-06-19

    This paper is aimed at critically assessing the extent to which Non-Communicable Disease NCD-related policies introduced in Bangladesh align with the World Health Organization's (WHO) 2013-2020 Action Plan for the Global Strategy for the Prevention and Control of NCDs. The authors reviewed all relevant policy documents introduced by the Government of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. The literature review targeted scientific and grey literature documents involving internet-based search, and expert consultation and snowballing to identify relevant policy documents. Information was extracted from the documents using a specific matrix, mapping each document against the six objectives of the WHO 2013-2020 Action Plan for the Global Strategy for the Prevention and Control of NCDs. A total of 51 documents were identified. Seven (14%) were research and/or surveys, nine were on established policies (17%), while seventeen (33%) were on action programmes. Five (10%) were related to guidelines and thirteen (25%) were strategic planning documents from government and non-government agencies/institutes. The study covered documents produced by the Government of Bangladesh as well as those by quasi-government and non-government organizations irrespective of the extent to which the intended policies were implemented. The policy analysis findings suggest that although the government has initiated many NCD-related policies or programs, they lacked proper planning, implementation and monitoring. Consequently, Bangladesh over the years had little success in effectively addressing the growing burden of non-communicable diseases. It is imperative that future research critically assess the effectiveness of national NCD policies by monitoring their implementation and level of population coverage.

  14. Global climate change policies. An analysis of CDM policies with an adapted GTAP model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Shunli

    2004-01-01

    In the context of the relationships between spatial-economic interaction and global warming just discussed, this study aims to analyze the Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) policies from an economic point of view. The research question of this study is formulated as follows: What will be the impacts of clirnate change policies, in particular CDM policies, on the economic performance of (groups of) countries in our global economic system, taking spatial interaction and general equilibrium effects into account? The purpose of addressing the issue of economic performance for (groups of) countries in the economic system is not just to identify winners and losers from international treaties. Rather, winning or losing may even determine the implementation and willingness of individual countries to participate in international environmental treaties, as illustrated by the recent withdrawal of the US from the Kyoto Protocol. By analyzing the economic impacts of an international environmental treaty for individual (groups of) countries, the framework that will be used to analyze this research question may be useful to determine the attractiveness of some global environmental policies, both for the world as a whole and for individual (groups of) countries. The research question will be answered by dividing it into six subquestions: (1) What is the position of CDM policies in the broad context of climate policy regimes?; (2) How should the relationship between human behavior and the physical environment be ideally modeled from an economic perspective? (3) How should the spatial dimension be incorporated in this framework of interaction between the economic and ecological system?; (4) How can climate change issues be incorporated in general equilibrium models in general, and in GTAP-E (extension of the Global Trade Analysis Project) in particular?; (5) How can CDM policies be implemented in the GTAP-E model?; and (6) What are the impacts of these climate change policies on

  15. Multiscale multifractal multiproperty analysis of financial time series based on Rényi entropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yujun, Yang; Jianping, Li; Yimei, Yang

    This paper introduces a multiscale multifractal multiproperty analysis based on Rényi entropy (3MPAR) method to analyze short-range and long-range characteristics of financial time series, and then applies this method to the five time series of five properties in four stock indices. Combining the two analysis techniques of Rényi entropy and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA), the 3MPAR method focuses on the curves of Rényi entropy and generalized Hurst exponent of five properties of four stock time series, which allows us to study more universal and subtle fluctuation characteristics of financial time series. By analyzing the curves of the Rényi entropy and the profiles of the logarithm distribution of MFDFA of five properties of four stock indices, the 3MPAR method shows some fluctuation characteristics of the financial time series and the stock markets. Then, it also shows a richer information of the financial time series by comparing the profile of five properties of four stock indices. In this paper, we not only focus on the multifractality of time series but also the fluctuation characteristics of the financial time series and subtle differences in the time series of different properties. We find that financial time series is far more complex than reported in some research works using one property of time series.

  16. Policy Implications Analysis: A Methodological Advancement for Policy Research and Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madey, Doren L.; Stenner, A. Jackson

    Policy Implications Analysis (PIA) is a tool designed to maximize the likelihood that an evaluation report will have an impact on decision-making. PIA was designed to help people planning and conducting evaluations tailor their information so that it has optimal potential for being used and acted upon. This paper describes the development and…

  17. A Policy Analysis of Student Attendance Standards Related to State Education Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guilliams, Mary Elizabeth

    2014-01-01

    This paper is a project report of a policy analysis of state attendance information available to public schools. Current state attendance information rarely expands beyond compulsory attendance law. It is vague, non-existent or difficult to find. Research provides strong links between student attendance and achievement. Informed school leaders…

  18. Quality in environmental science for policy: assessing uncertainty as a component of policy analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maxim, L.; van der Sluijs, J.P.

    2011-01-01

    The sheer number of attempts to define and classify uncertainty reveals an awareness of its importance in environmental science for policy, though the nature of uncertainty is often misunderstood. The interdisciplinary field of uncertainty analysis is unstable; there are currently several incomplete

  19. A Qualitative Stakeholder Analysis of Avian Influenza Policy in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyay, Kaushik; Fournié, Guillaume; Abul Kalam, Md; Biswas, Paritosh K; Hoque, Ahasanul; Debnath, Nitish C; Rahman, Mahmudur; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Harper, David; Heymann, David L

    2017-11-13

    Avian influenza is a major animal and public health concern in Bangladesh. A decade after development and implementation of the first national avian influenza and human pandemic influenza preparedness and response plan in Bangladesh, a two-stage qualitative stakeholder analysis was performed in relation to the policy development process and the actual policy. This study specifically aimed to identify the future policy options to prevent and control avian influenza and other poultry-related zoonotic diseases in Bangladesh. It was recommended that the policy should be based on the One Health concept, be evidence-based, sustainable, reviewed and updated as necessary. The future policy environment that is suitable for developing and implementing these policies should take into account the following points: the need to formally engage multiple sectors, the need for clear and acceptable leadership, roles and responsibilities and the need for a common pool of resources and provision for transferring resources. Most of these recommendations are directed towards the Government of Bangladesh. However, other sectors, including research and poultry production stakeholders, also have a major role to play to inform policy making and actively participate in the multi-sectoral approach.

  20. Modeling Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index Using Time Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayo, W. S.; Urrutia, J. D.; Temple, J. M. F.; Sandoval, J. R. D.; Sanglay, J. E. A.

    2015-06-01

    This study was conducted to develop a time series model of the Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index and its volatility using the finite mixture of ARIMA model with conditional variance equations such as ARCH, GARCH, EG ARCH, TARCH and PARCH models. Also, the study aimed to find out the reason behind the behaviorof PSEi, that is, which of the economic variables - Consumer Price Index, crude oil price, foreign exchange rate, gold price, interest rate, money supply, price-earnings ratio, Producers’ Price Index and terms of trade - can be used in projecting future values of PSEi and this was examined using Granger Causality Test. The findings showed that the best time series model for Philippine Stock Exchange Composite index is ARIMA(1,1,5) - ARCH(1). Also, Consumer Price Index, crude oil price and foreign exchange rate are factors concluded to Granger cause Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index.

  1. Comparative analysis of evaluation techniques for transport policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Browne, David; Ryan, Lisa

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to examine and compare the use of a number of policy evaluation tools, which can be used to measure the impact of transport policies and programmes as part of a strategic environmental assessment (SEA) or sustainability appraisal. The evaluation tools that were examined include cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). It was concluded that both CEA and CBA are useful for estimating the costs and/or benefits associated with transport policies but are constrained by the difficulty in quantifying non-market impacts and monetising total costs and benefits. Furthermore, CEA is limited to identifying the most 'cost-effective policy' for achieving a single, narrowly defined objective, usually greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction and is, therefore, not suitable for evaluating policy options with ancillary costs or a variety of potential benefits. Thus, CBA or CEA evaluation should be complemented by a complete environmental and socio-economic impact assessment approach such as MCDA. This method allows for participatory analysis and qualitative assessment but is subject to caveats such as subjectivity and value-laden judgments.

  2. Time series analysis of the behavior of brazilian natural rubber

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antônio Donizette de Oliveira

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The natural rubber is a non-wood product obtained of the coagulation of some lattices of forest species, being Hevea brasiliensis the main one. Native from the Amazon Region, this species was already known by the Indians before the discovery of America. The natural rubber became a product globally valued due to its multiple applications in the economy, being its almost perfect substitute the synthetic rubber derived from the petroleum. Similarly to what happens with other countless products the forecast of future prices of the natural rubber has been object of many studies. The use of models of forecast of univariate timeseries stands out as the more accurate and useful to reduce the uncertainty in the economic decision making process. This studyanalyzed the historical series of prices of the Brazilian natural rubber (R$/kg, in the Jan/99 - Jun/2006 period, in order tocharacterize the rubber price behavior in the domestic market; estimated a model for the time series of monthly natural rubberprices; and foresaw the domestic prices of the natural rubber, in the Jul/2006 - Jun/2007 period, based on the estimated models.The studied models were the ones belonging to the ARIMA family. The main results were: the domestic market of the natural rubberis expanding due to the growth of the world economy; among the adjusted models, the ARIMA (1,1,1 model provided the bestadjustment of the time series of prices of the natural rubber (R$/kg; the prognosis accomplished for the series supplied statistically adequate fittings.

  3. Dynamical analysis and visualization of tornadoes time series.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    António M Lopes

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyze the behavior of tornado time-series in the U.S. from the perspective of dynamical systems. A tornado is a violently rotating column of air extending from a cumulonimbus cloud down to the ground. Such phenomena reveal features that are well described by power law functions and unveil characteristics found in systems with long range memory effects. Tornado time series are viewed as the output of a complex system and are interpreted as a manifestation of its dynamics. Tornadoes are modeled as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the events size. First, a collection of time series involving 64 years is analyzed in the frequency domain by means of the Fourier transform. The amplitude spectra are approximated by power law functions and their parameters are read as an underlying signature of the system dynamics. Second, it is adopted the concept of circular time and the collective behavior of tornadoes analyzed. Clustering techniques are then adopted to identify and visualize the emerging patterns.

  4. Dynamical analysis and visualization of tornadoes time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, António M; Tenreiro Machado, J A

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the behavior of tornado time-series in the U.S. from the perspective of dynamical systems. A tornado is a violently rotating column of air extending from a cumulonimbus cloud down to the ground. Such phenomena reveal features that are well described by power law functions and unveil characteristics found in systems with long range memory effects. Tornado time series are viewed as the output of a complex system and are interpreted as a manifestation of its dynamics. Tornadoes are modeled as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the events size. First, a collection of time series involving 64 years is analyzed in the frequency domain by means of the Fourier transform. The amplitude spectra are approximated by power law functions and their parameters are read as an underlying signature of the system dynamics. Second, it is adopted the concept of circular time and the collective behavior of tornadoes analyzed. Clustering techniques are then adopted to identify and visualize the emerging patterns.

  5. Financial time series analysis based on information categorization method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Qiang; Shang, Pengjian; Feng, Guochen

    2014-12-01

    The paper mainly applies the information categorization method to analyze the financial time series. The method is used to examine the similarity of different sequences by calculating the distances between them. We apply this method to quantify the similarity of different stock markets. And we report the results of similarity in US and Chinese stock markets in periods 1991-1998 (before the Asian currency crisis), 1999-2006 (after the Asian currency crisis and before the global financial crisis), and 2007-2013 (during and after global financial crisis) by using this method. The results show the difference of similarity between different stock markets in different time periods and the similarity of the two stock markets become larger after these two crises. Also we acquire the results of similarity of 10 stock indices in three areas; it means the method can distinguish different areas' markets from the phylogenetic trees. The results show that we can get satisfactory information from financial markets by this method. The information categorization method can not only be used in physiologic time series, but also in financial time series.

  6. Pitfalls of CITES Implementation in Nepal: A Policy Gap Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dongol, Yogesh; Heinen, Joel T.

    2012-08-01

    Implementation of policy involves multiple agencies operating at multiple levels in facilitating processes and actions to accomplish desired results. The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) was developed and implemented to regulate and control international wildlife trade, but violations of the agreement are widespread and growing worldwide, including in Nepal. This study attempts to understand how domestic CITES policies are translated into action and what effect actions and processes have on compliance. In doing so, this study provides insights into the implementation and enforcement pitfalls of national legislation that explain CITES violations in Nepal. Primarily, we used 26 key informants interviews to learn opinions of experts, and the grounded theory approach for further qualitative data analysis. In addition, we used Najman's (1995) policy implementation analysis framework to explain gaps. Many interrelated variables in the content of the policy, commitment and capacity of the agencies, the roles of clients and coalitions and contextual issues were observed. Variables that emerged suggest pitfalls in the regulatory policy represented by low probability of detection, arrest and punishment. Moreover, redistributive policies in buffer zones of protected areas are needed into perpetuity to benefit locals. Also, conservation organizations' support for building public and political salience is imperative.

  7. A game theory analysis of green infrastructure stormwater management policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    William, Reshmina; Garg, Jugal; Stillwell, Ashlynn S.

    2017-09-01

    Green stormwater infrastructure has been demonstrated as an innovative water resources management approach that addresses multiple challenges facing urban environments. However, there is little consensus on what policy strategies can be used to best incentivize green infrastructure adoption by private landowners. Game theory, an analysis framework that has historically been under-utilized within the context of stormwater management, is uniquely suited to address this policy question. We used a cooperative game theory framework to investigate the potential impacts of different policy strategies used to incentivize green infrastructure installation. The results indicate that municipal regulation leads to the greatest reduction in pollutant loading. However, the choice of the "best" regulatory approach will depend on a variety of different factors including politics and financial considerations. Large, downstream agents have a disproportionate share of bargaining power. Results also reveal that policy impacts are highly dependent on agents' spatial position within the stormwater network, leading to important questions of social equity and environmental justice.

  8. Irrigation water policy analysis using a business simulation game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchholz, M.; Holst, G.; Musshoff, O.

    2016-10-01

    Despite numerous studies on farmers' responses to changing irrigation water policies, uncertainties remain about the potential of water pricing schemes and water quotas to reduce irrigation. Thus far, policy impact analysis is predominantly based upon rational choice models that assume behavioral assumptions, such as a perfectly rational profit-maximizing decision maker. Also, econometric techniques are applied which could lack internal validity due to uncontrolled field data. Furthermore, such techniques are not capable of identifying ill-designed policies prior to their implementation. With this in mind, we apply a business simulation game for ex ante policy impact analysis of irrigation water policies at the farm level. Our approach has the potential to reveal the policy-induced behavioral change of the participants in a controlled environment. To do so, we investigate how real farmers from Germany, in an economic experiment, respond to a water pricing scheme and a water quota intending to reduce irrigation. In the business simulation game, the participants manage a "virtual" cash-crop farm for which they make crop allocation and irrigation decisions during several production periods, while facing uncertain product prices and weather conditions. The results reveal that a water quota is able to reduce mean irrigation applications, while a water pricing scheme does not have an impact, even though both policies exhibit equal income effects for the farmers. However, both policies appear to increase the variation of irrigation applications. Compared to a perfectly rational profit-maximizing decision maker, the participants apply less irrigation on average, both when irrigation is not restricted and when a water pricing scheme applies. Moreover, the participants' risk attitude affects the irrigation decisions.

  9. Can conditional health policies be justified? A policy analysis of the new NHS dental contract reforms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laverty, Louise; Harris, Rebecca

    2018-06-01

    Conditional policies, which emphasise personal responsibility, are becoming increasingly common in healthcare. Although used widely internationally, they are relatively new within the UK health system where there have been concerns about whether they can be justified. New NHS dental contracts include the introduction of a conditional component that restricts certain patients from accessing a full range of treatment until they have complied with preventative action. A policy analysis of published documents on the NHS dental contract reforms from 2009 to 2016 was conducted to consider how conditionality is justified and whether its execution is likely to cause distributional effects. Contractualist, paternalistic and mutualist arguments that reflect notions of responsibility and obligation are used as justification within policy. Underlying these arguments is an emphasis on preserving the finite resources of a strained NHS. We argue that the proposed conditional component may differentially affect disadvantaged patients, who do not necessarily have access to the resources needed to meet the behavioural requirements. As such, the conditional component of the NHS dental contract reform has the potential to exacerbate oral health inequalities. Conditional health policies may challenge core NHS principles and, as is the case with any conditional policy, should be carefully considered to ensure they do not exacerbate health inequities. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  10. Time-Series Analysis of Supergranule Characterstics at Solar Minimum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Peter E.; Pesnell, W. Dean

    2013-01-01

    Sixty days of Doppler images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) / Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) investigation during the 1996 and 2008 solar minima have been analyzed to show that certain supergranule characteristics (size, size range, and horizontal velocity) exhibit fluctuations of three to five days. Cross-correlating parameters showed a good, positive correlation between supergranulation size and size range, and a moderate, negative correlation between size range and velocity. The size and velocity do exhibit a moderate, negative correlation, but with a small time lag (less than 12 hours). Supergranule sizes during five days of co-temporal data from MDI and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) / Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) exhibit similar fluctuations with a high level of correlation between them. This verifies the solar origin of the fluctuations, which cannot be caused by instrumental artifacts according to these observations. Similar fluctuations are also observed in data simulations that model the evolution of the MDI Doppler pattern over a 60-day period. Correlations between the supergranule size and size range time-series derived from the simulated data are similar to those seen in MDI data. A simple toy-model using cumulative, uncorrelated exponential growth and decay patterns at random emergence times produces a time-series similar to the data simulations. The qualitative similarities between the simulated and the observed time-series suggest that the fluctuations arise from stochastic processes occurring within the solar convection zone. This behavior, propagating to surface manifestations of supergranulation, may assist our understanding of magnetic-field-line advection, evolution, and interaction.

  11. Maritime Branch Analysis: A workbook in the PROTEUS series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mougaard, Krestine; Neugebauer, Line Maria; Garcia i Mateu, Adrià

    The vast majority of countries in the developed world are now dependent on their service sectors for between 70-80% of their gross domestic product. Even companies with decades of expertise in producing manufactured products are experiencing an increased need to understand before-, during- and af...... industry sector’s readiness and first steps towards servitisation. Although this book is written primarily for our partners on the PROTEUS project, we are sure it can be a source of inspiration to a broad range of practitioners, policy makers, academics and students...

  12. Dividend Policy and Corporate Value (A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tifani Titah Dwi Tyastari

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to understand the effect of dividend policy on corporate value, as well as to examine and analyze the variation of result study on corporate value in Indonesia.Dividend Signaling Model was the grand theory used to explain the effect of dividend policy on corporate value. This study used meta-analysis approach with the sample were 70 researches in Indonesia, both the published and unpublished in 2007-2015. The result of this study, meta-analysis strengthens the findings of the previous study which stated that the dividend policy could increase the corporate value. The differences of the previous studies were due to the presence of moderation effect from the measurement model of corporate value and dividend corporate.

  13. Anatomy of the ICDS series: A bibliometric analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cardona, Manuel; Marx, Werner

    2007-01-01

    In this article, the proceedings of the International Conferences on Defects in Semiconductors (ICDS) have been analyzed by bibliometric methods. The papers of these conferences have been published as articles in regular journals or special proceedings journals and in books with diverse publishers. The conference name/title changed several times. Many of the proceedings did not appear in the so-called 'source journals' covered by the Thomson/ISI citation databases, in particular by the Science Citation Index (SCI). But the number of citations within these source journals can be determined using the Cited Reference Search mode under the Web of Science (WoS) and the SCI offered by the host STN International. The search functions of both systems were needed to select the papers published as different document types and to cover the full time span of the series. The most cited ICDS papers were identified, and the overall numbers of citations as well as the time-dependent impact of these papers, of single conferences, and of the complete series, was established. The complete of citing papers was analyzed with respect to the countries of the citing authors, the citing journals, and the ISI subject categories

  14. Discontinuous conduction mode analysis of phase-modulated series ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Utsab Kundu

    domain analysis; frequency domain analysis; critical load resistance. 1. Introduction ... DCMSRC design process, requiring repeated circuit simu- lations for design ... Structured derivation of Av is presented, ..... System specifications. L. C r. Lm.

  15. Alcohol policy in a Russian region: a stakeholder analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gil, Artyom; Polikina, Olga; Koroleva, Natalia; Leon, David A; McKee, Martin

    2010-10-01

    Male life expectancy in the Russian Federation, at 60 years, is the lowest in Europe. Several factors contribute to this situation, but hazardous consumption of alcohol is especially a key factor. We undertook a stakeholder analysis in a typical Russian region located on the western side of the Urals. Organizations with a stake in alcohol policy in the region were identified by snowball sampling and information on their position and influence on alcohol policy was elicited from interviews with key informants. Their interests and influence were mapped and their relationships plotted. Twenty-nine stakeholder organizations were identified and 43 interviews were conducted with their staff. The most influential actors were the Federal and regional governments, large beer producers and manufacturers of strong alcohols. However, the majority of organizations that might be expected to play a role in developing or implementing alcohol control policies were almost entirely disengaged and fragmented. No evidence was found of an existing or emerging multi-sectoral coalition for developing alcohol policy to improve health. Organizations that might be expected to contribute to tackling hazardous drinking had little understanding of what might be effective. While stakeholders with an interest in maintaining or increasing alcohol consumption are engaged and influential, those who might seek to reduce it either take a very narrow perspective or are disengaged from the policy agenda. There is a need to mobilize actors who might contribute to effective policies while challenging those who can block them.

  16. An econometric time-series analysis of global CO2 concentrations and emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.C.; Labys, W.C.; Eliste, P.

    2001-01-01

    This paper extends previous work on the econometric modelling of CO 2 concentrations and emissions. The importance of such work rests in the fact that models of the Cohen-Labys variety represent the only alternative to scientific or physical models of CO 2 accumulations whose parameters are inferred rather than estimated. The stimulation for this study derives from the recent discovery of oscillations and cycles in the net biospheric flux of CO 2 . A variety of time series tests is thus used to search for the presence of normality, stationarity, cyclicality and stochastic processes in global CO 2 emissions and concentrations series. Given the evidence for cyclicality of a short-run nature in the spectra of these series, both structural time series and error correction model are applied to confirm the frequency and amplitude of these cycles. Our results suggest new possibilities for determining equilibrium levels of CO 2 concentrations and subsequently revising stabilization policies. (Author)

  17. The Analysis Of Personality Disorder On Two Characters In The Animation Series Black Rock Shooter

    OpenAIRE

    Ramadhana, Rizki Andrian

    2015-01-01

    The title of this thesis is The Analysis of Personality Disorder on Two Characters in the Animation Series “Black Rock Shooter” which discusses about the personality disorder of two characters from this series; they are Kagari Izuriha and Yomi Takanashi. The animation series Black Rock Shooter is chosen as the source of data because this animation has psychological genre and represents the complexity of human relationship, especially when build up a friendship. It is because human is a social...

  18. Values in Health Policy – A Concept Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lida Shams

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background Despite the significant role “values” play in decision-making no definition or attributes regarding the concept have been provided in health policy-making. This study aimed to clarify the defining attributes of a concept of value and its irrelevant structures in health policy-making. We anticipate our findings will help reduce the semantic ambiguities associated with the use of “values” and other concepts such as principles, criteria, attitudes, and beliefs. Methods An extensive search of literature was carried out using electronic data base and library. The overall search strategy yielded about 1540 articles and 450 additional records. Based on traditional qualitative research, studies were purposefully selected and the coding of articles continued until data saturation was reached. Accordingly, 31 articles, 2 books, and 5 other documents were selected for the review. We applied Walker and Avant’s method of concept analysis in studying the phenomenon. Definitions, applications, attributes, antecedents, and consequences of the concept of “value in health policy-making” were extracted. We also identified similarities and differences that exist between and within them. Results We identified eight major attributes of “value in health policy-making”: ideological origin, affect one’s choices, more resistant to change over time, source of motivation, ability to sacrifice one’s interest, goal-oriented nature for community, trans-situational and subjectivity. Other features pinpointed include alternatives, antecedents, and consequences. Alternative, antecedents and consequences case may have more or fewer attributes or may lack one of these attributes and at the same time have other distinctive ones. Conclusion Despite the use of the value framework, ambiguities still persist in providing definition of the concept value in health policy-making. Understanding the concept of value in health policy-making may provide extra

  19. Data Envelopment Analysis of different climate policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bosetti, Valentina; Buchner, Barbara

    2009-01-01

    Recent developments in the political, scientific and economic debate on climate change suggest that it is of critical importance to develop new approaches able to compare policy scenarios for their environmental effectiveness, their distributive effects, their enforceability, their costs and many other dimensions. This paper discusses a quantitative methodology to assess the relative performance of different climate policy scenarios when accounting for their long-term economic, social and environmental impacts. The proposed procedure is based on Data Envelopment Analysis, here employed in evaluating the relative efficiency of eleven global climate policy scenarios. The methodology provides a promising comparison framework; it can be seen as a way of setting some basic guidelines to frame further debates and negotiations and can be flexibly adopted and modified by decision makers to obtain relevant information for policy design. Three major findings emerge from this analysis: (1) stringent climate policies can outperform less ambitious proposals if all sustainability dimensions are taken into account; (2) a carefully chosen burden-sharing rule is able to bring together climate stabilisation and equity considerations; and (3) the most inefficient strategy results from the failure to negotiate a post-2012 global climate agreement. (author)

  20. Barriers' and policies' analysis of China's building energy efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yurong; Wang, Yuanfeng

    2013-01-01

    With the rapid economic growth and the improvement of people's living standards, China's building energy consumption has kept rising during the past 15 years. Under the effort of the Chinese government and the society, China's building energy efficiency has made certain achievements. However, the implementation of building energy efficiency in China is still far from its potential. Based on the analysis of the existing policies implemented in China, the article concluded that the most essential and the most effective ways to promote building energy efficiency is the government's involvement as well as economic and financial incentives. In addition, the main barriers in the process of promoting building energy efficiency in China are identified in six aspects. It has been found that the legal system and administrative issues constitute major barriers, and the lack of financial incentives and the mismatching of market mechanism also hamper the promotion of building energy efficiency. Finally, in view of the existing policies and barriers analysis, three corresponding policy proposals are presented. -- Highlights: •The existing policies implemented in China from three aspects are presented and analysed. •The Government's involvement is the most essential effective way to promote building-energy efficiency. •Six aspects of barriers in promoting building energy efficiency in China are identified. •The legal system and administrative issues constitute the major barriers. •Three policy proposals to further promote building energy efficiency in China are proposed

  1. Statistical Compilation of the ICT Sector and Policy Analysis | CRDI ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Statistical Compilation of the ICT Sector and Policy Analysis. As the presence and influence of information and communication technologies (ICTs) continues to widen and deepen, so too does its impact on economic development. However, much work needs to be done before the linkages between economic development ...

  2. Building Capacity in Health Systems and Policy Analysis in sub ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Building Capacity in Health Systems and Policy Analysis in sub-Saharan Africa. Since 2005, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has been financing the master's program in health and population at the Institut supérieure des sciences de la population (ISSP), Université de Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. However, after ...

  3. Economic evaluation and Applications of the Policy Analysis Matrix ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    By using benefit to costs index, internal rate of return, net present value and policy analysis matrix were calculated. The results show that intercropping was affordable than sole cropping. Sole cropping of these crops had no relative advantage, while mixed cropping had a relative advantage than sole cropping. Nominal ...

  4. Statistical Compilation of the ICT Sector and Policy Analysis | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Statistical Compilation of the ICT Sector and Policy Analysis. As the presence and influence of information and communication technologies (ICTs) continues to widen and deepen, so too does its impact on economic development. However, much work needs to be done before the linkages between economic development ...

  5. Palliative care policy analysis in Iran: A conceptual model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mojgan Ansari

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Palliative care programs are rapidly evolving for patients with life-threatening illnesses. Increased and earlier access for facilities is a subject of growing importance in health services, policy, and research. Aim: This study was conducted to explain stakeholders' perceptions of the factors affecting the design of such a palliative care system and its policy analysis. Methodology: Semi-structured in-depth interviews conducted following purposive sampling of the participants. Twenty-two participants were included in the study. The interviews were analyzed using qualitative-directed content analysis based on "policy analysis triangle" framework. Results: The findings showed the impact of four categories, namely context (political, social, and structural feasibility, content (target setting, process (attracting stakeholder participation, the standardization of care, and education management, and actors (the Ministry of Health and Medical Education, health-care providers, and volunteers in the analysis of the palliative care policies of Iran. Conclusion: In the past 6 years, attention to palliative care has increased significantly as a result of the National Cancer Research Network with the support of the Ministry of Health. The success of health system plan requires great attention to its aspects of social, political, and executive feasibility. Careful management by policymakers of different stakeholders is vital to ensure support for any national plan, but this is challenging to achieve.

  6. Point of Care Testing Services Delivery: Policy Analysis using a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Annals of Biomedical Sciences ... The service providers (hospital management) and the testing personnel are faced with the task of trying to explain these problems. Objective of the study: To critically do a policy analysis of the problems of point of care testing with the aim of identifying the causes of these problems and ...

  7. A Policy Analysis of Public School Retirement Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Tara; Teeter, Matt

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this policy analysis was to examine the Missouri Public School Retirement System (PSRS). The team investigated the under-funding of PSRS, relating to sustainability and the feasibility of the system's use of one lever, contribution rate, to stabilize the retirement system, and to meet actuary needs and governmental requirements. The…

  8. ORIGINAL ARTICLE Analysis of Ethiopia's National ICT Policy and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    as infrastructure, services, applications, universal access, cyber security, social media, and users. Broadband infrastructure development is ... other technologies it enables to transform organizations and redefine social relations. In essence, ... public policies and disciplines. First, document analysis was carried out to study.

  9. A health app developer's guide to law and policy: a multi-sector policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Lisa; Karliychuk, Tanya; Gillies, Donna; Mintzes, Barbara; Raven, Melissa; Grundy, Quinn

    2017-10-02

    Apps targeted at health and wellbeing sit in a rapidly growing industry associated with widespread optimism about their potential to deliver accessible and cost-effective healthcare. App developers might not be aware of all the regulatory requirements and best practice principles are emergent. Health apps are regulated in order to minimise their potential for harm due to, for example, loss of personal health privacy, financial costs, and health harms from delayed or unnecessary diagnosis, monitoring and treatment. We aimed to produce a comprehensive guide to assist app developers in producing health apps that are legally compliant and in keeping with high professional standards of user protection. We conducted a case study analysis of the Australian and related international policy environment for mental health apps to identify relevant sectors, policy actors, and policy solutions. We identified 29 policies produced by governments and non-government organisations that provide oversight of health apps. In consultation with stakeholders, we developed an interactive tool targeted at app developers, summarising key features of the policy environment and highlighting legislative, industry and professional standards around seven relevant domains: privacy, security, content, promotion and advertising, consumer finances, medical device efficacy and safety, and professional ethics. We annotated this developer guidance tool with information about: the relevance of each domain; existing legislative and non-legislative guidance; critiques of existing policy; recommendations for developers; and suggestions for other key stakeholders. We anticipate that mental health apps developed in accordance with this tool will be more likely to conform to regulatory requirements, protect consumer privacy, protect consumer finances, and deliver health benefit; and less likely to attract regulatory penalties, offend consumers and communities, mislead consumers, or deliver health harms. We

  10. Multi-Scale Entropy Analysis as a Method for Time-Series Analysis of Climate Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heiko Balzter

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Evidence is mounting that the temporal dynamics of the climate system are changing at the same time as the average global temperature is increasing due to multiple climate forcings. A large number of extreme weather events such as prolonged cold spells, heatwaves, droughts and floods have been recorded around the world in the past 10 years. Such changes in the temporal scaling behaviour of climate time-series data can be difficult to detect. While there are easy and direct ways of analysing climate data by calculating the means and variances for different levels of temporal aggregation, these methods can miss more subtle changes in their dynamics. This paper describes multi-scale entropy (MSE analysis as a tool to study climate time-series data and to identify temporal scales of variability and their change over time in climate time-series. MSE estimates the sample entropy of the time-series after coarse-graining at different temporal scales. An application of MSE to Central European, variance-adjusted, mean monthly air temperature anomalies (CRUTEM4v is provided. The results show that the temporal scales of the current climate (1960–2014 are different from the long-term average (1850–1960. For temporal scale factors longer than 12 months, the sample entropy increased markedly compared to the long-term record. Such an increase can be explained by systems theory with greater complexity in the regional temperature data. From 1961 the patterns of monthly air temperatures are less regular at time-scales greater than 12 months than in the earlier time period. This finding suggests that, at these inter-annual time scales, the temperature variability has become less predictable than in the past. It is possible that climate system feedbacks are expressed in altered temporal scales of the European temperature time-series data. A comparison with the variance and Shannon entropy shows that MSE analysis can provide additional information on the

  11. A Multivariate Time Series Method for Monte Carlo Reactor Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taro Ueki

    2008-01-01

    A robust multivariate time series method has been established for the Monte Carlo calculation of neutron multiplication problems. The method is termed Coarse Mesh Projection Method (CMPM) and can be implemented using the coarse statistical bins for acquisition of nuclear fission source data. A novel aspect of CMPM is the combination of the general technical principle of projection pursuit in the signal processing discipline and the neutron multiplication eigenvalue problem in the nuclear engineering discipline. CMPM enables reactor physicists to accurately evaluate major eigenvalue separations of nuclear reactors with continuous energy Monte Carlo calculation. CMPM was incorporated in the MCNP Monte Carlo particle transport code of Los Alamos National Laboratory. The great advantage of CMPM over the traditional Fission Matrix method is demonstrated for the three space-dimensional modeling of the initial core of a pressurized water reactor

  12. Biological time series analysis using a context free language: applicability to pulsatile hormone data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis A Dean

    Full Text Available We present a novel approach for analyzing biological time-series data using a context-free language (CFL representation that allows the extraction and quantification of important features from the time-series. This representation results in Hierarchically AdaPtive (HAP analysis, a suite of multiple complementary techniques that enable rapid analysis of data and does not require the user to set parameters. HAP analysis generates hierarchically organized parameter distributions that allow multi-scale components of the time-series to be quantified and includes a data analysis pipeline that applies recursive analyses to generate hierarchically organized results that extend traditional outcome measures such as pharmacokinetics and inter-pulse interval. Pulsicons, a novel text-based time-series representation also derived from the CFL approach, are introduced as an objective qualitative comparison nomenclature. We apply HAP to the analysis of 24 hours of frequently sampled pulsatile cortisol hormone data, which has known analysis challenges, from 14 healthy women. HAP analysis generated results in seconds and produced dozens of figures for each participant. The results quantify the observed qualitative features of cortisol data as a series of pulse clusters, each consisting of one or more embedded pulses, and identify two ultradian phenotypes in this dataset. HAP analysis is designed to be robust to individual differences and to missing data and may be applied to other pulsatile hormones. Future work can extend HAP analysis to other time-series data types, including oscillatory and other periodic physiological signals.

  13. Historical analysis of SO2 pollution control policies in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Cailing; Yin, Huaqiang; Ai, Nanshan; Huang, Zhengwen

    2009-03-01

    Coal is not only an important energy source in China but also a major source of air pollution. Because of this, China's national sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) emissions have been the highest in the world for many years, and since the 1990s, the territory of China's south and southwest has become the third largest acid-rain-prone region in the world. In order to control SO(2) emissions, the Chinese government has formulated and promulgated a series of policies and regulations, but it faces great difficulties in putting them into practice. In this retrospective look at the history of SO(2) control in China, we found that Chinese SO(2) control policies have become increasingly strict and rigid. We also found that the environmental policies and regulations are more effective when central officials consistently give environmental protection top priority. Achieving China's environmental goals, however, has been made difficult by China's economic growth. Part of this is due to the practice of environmental protection appearing in the form of an ideological "campaign" or "storm" that lacks effective economic measures. More recently, better enforcement of environmental laws and regulations has been achieved by adding environmental quality to the performance assessment metrics for leaders at all levels. To continue making advances, China needs to reinforce the economic and environmental assessments for pollution control projects and work harder to integrate economic measures into environmental protection. Nonetheless, China has a long way to go before economic growth and environmental protection are balanced.

  14. Time Series in Education: The Analysis of Daily Attendance in Two High Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koopmans, Matthijs

    2011-01-01

    This presentation discusses the use of a time series approach to the analysis of daily attendance in two urban high schools over the course of one school year (2009-10). After establishing that the series for both schools were stationary, they were examined for moving average processes, autoregression, seasonal dependencies (weekly cycles),…

  15. Mapping air temperature using time series analysis of LST : The SINTESI approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alfieri, S.M.; De Lorenzi, F.; Menenti, M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a new procedure to map time series of air temperature (Ta) at fine spatial resolution using time series analysis of satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST) observations. The method assumes that air temperature is known at a single (reference) location such as in gridded

  16. Time-series analysis of Nigeria rice supply and demand: Error ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study examined a time-series analysis of Nigeria rice supply and demand with a view to determining any long-run equilibrium between them using the Error Correction Model approach (ECM). The data used for the study represents the annual series of 1960-2007 (47 years) for rice supply and demand in Nigeria, ...

  17. Taxation in Public Education. Analysis and Bibliography Series, No. 12.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Larry L.

    Intended for both researchers and practitioners, this analysis and bibliography cites approximately 100 publications on educational taxation, including general texts and reports, statistical reports, taxation guidelines, and alternative proposals for taxation. Topics covered in the analysis section include State and Federal aid, urban and suburban…

  18. Social implications of the Human Genome Project: Policy roundtable series and journals. Final progress report, March 15, 2001 - March 15, 2002

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seiguer, Erica

    2002-12-30

    This report reflects the activities of the Harvard Health Caucus at Harvard Medical School that were supported, in part, by the Department of Energy. The following policy roundtables and panels were held: Spring 2001 Policy Roundtable Series: The social implications of the Human Genome Project; Spring 2002 Policy Roundtable Series: Managing globalization to improve health; 13 February 2002 Keynote Address: The globalization of health; 25 February 2002 Healthier or Wealthier: Which comes first in the new global era?; 28 February 2002 The crisis of neglected diseases: Creating R&D incentives for diseases of developing countries; 7 March 2002 Health care education in the developing world: Bridging global and local health care practices; 20 March 2002 Building a legal framework for global health: How can the US and UN work to reduce global disparities?; 25 April 2002 The role of mass media and tobacco control efforts. Caucus organizational information is also included.

  19. RECONSTRUCTION OF PRECIPITATION SERIES AND ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER PAST 500 YEARS IN NORTHERN CHINA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    RONG Yan-shu; TU Qi-pu

    2005-01-01

    It is important and necessary to get a much longer precipitation series in order to research features of drought/flood and climate change.Based on dryness and wetness grades series of 18 stations in Northern China of 533 years from 1470 to 2002, the Moving Cumulative Frequency Method (MCFM) was developed, moving average precipitation series from 1499 to 2002 were reconstructed by testing three kinds of average precipitation, and the features of climate change and dry and wet periods were researched by using reconstructed precipitation series in the present paper.The results showed that there were good relationship between the reconstructed precipitation series and the observation precipitation series since 1954 and their relative root-mean-square error were below 1.89%, that the relation between reconstructed series and the dryness and wetness grades series were nonlinear and this nonlinear relation implied that reconstructed series were reliable and could became foundation data for researching evolution of the drought and flood.Analysis of climate change upon reconstructed precipitation series revealed that although drought intensity of recent dry period from middle 1970s of 20th century until early 21st century was not the strongest in historical climate of Northern China, intensity and duration of wet period was a great deal decreasing and shortening respectively, climate evolve to aridification situation in Northern China.

  20. The Timeseries Toolbox - A Web Application to Enable Accessible, Reproducible Time Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veatch, W.; Friedman, D.; Baker, B.; Mueller, C.

    2017-12-01

    The vast majority of data analyzed by climate researchers are repeated observations of physical process or time series data. This data lends itself of a common set of statistical techniques and models designed to determine trends and variability (e.g., seasonality) of these repeated observations. Often, these same techniques and models can be applied to a wide variety of different time series data. The Timeseries Toolbox is a web application designed to standardize and streamline these common approaches to time series analysis and modeling with particular attention to hydrologic time series used in climate preparedness and resilience planning and design by the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers. The application performs much of the pre-processing of time series data necessary for more complex techniques (e.g. interpolation, aggregation). With this tool, users can upload any dataset that conforms to a standard template and immediately begin applying these techniques to analyze their time series data.

  1. Financial time series analysis based on effective phase transfer entropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Pengbo; Shang, Pengjian; Lin, Aijing

    2017-02-01

    Transfer entropy is a powerful technique which is able to quantify the impact of one dynamic system on another system. In this paper, we propose the effective phase transfer entropy method based on the transfer entropy method. We use simulated data to test the performance of this method, and the experimental results confirm that the proposed approach is capable of detecting the information transfer between the systems. We also explore the relationship between effective phase transfer entropy and some variables, such as data size, coupling strength and noise. The effective phase transfer entropy is positively correlated with the data size and the coupling strength. Even in the presence of a large amount of noise, it can detect the information transfer between systems, and it is very robust to noise. Moreover, this measure is indeed able to accurately estimate the information flow between systems compared with phase transfer entropy. In order to reflect the application of this method in practice, we apply this method to financial time series and gain new insight into the interactions between systems. It is demonstrated that the effective phase transfer entropy can be used to detect some economic fluctuations in the financial market. To summarize, the effective phase transfer entropy method is a very efficient tool to estimate the information flow between systems.

  2. Stock price forecasting based on time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chi, Wan Le

    2018-05-01

    Using the historical stock price data to set up a sequence model to explain the intrinsic relationship of data, the future stock price can forecasted. The used models are auto-regressive model, moving-average model and autoregressive-movingaverage model. The original data sequence of unit root test was used to judge whether the original data sequence was stationary. The non-stationary original sequence as a first order difference needed further processing. Then the stability of the sequence difference was re-inspected. If it is still non-stationary, the second order differential processing of the sequence is carried out. Autocorrelation diagram and partial correlation diagram were used to evaluate the parameters of the identified ARMA model, including coefficients of the model and model order. Finally, the model was used to forecast the fitting of the shanghai composite index daily closing price with precision. Results showed that the non-stationary original data series was stationary after the second order difference. The forecast value of shanghai composite index daily closing price was closer to actual value, indicating that the ARMA model in the paper was a certain accuracy.

  3. A unified nonlinear stochastic time series analysis for climate science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Woosok; Wettlaufer, John S

    2017-03-13

    Earth's orbit and axial tilt imprint a strong seasonal cycle on climatological data. Climate variability is typically viewed in terms of fluctuations in the seasonal cycle induced by higher frequency processes. We can interpret this as a competition between the orbitally enforced monthly stability and the fluctuations/noise induced by weather. Here we introduce a new time-series method that determines these contributions from monthly-averaged data. We find that the spatio-temporal distribution of the monthly stability and the magnitude of the noise reveal key fingerprints of several important climate phenomena, including the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover, the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Nio and the Indian Dipole Mode. In analogy with the classical destabilising influence of the ice-albedo feedback on summertime sea ice, we find that during some time interval of the season a destabilising process operates in all of these climate phenomena. The interaction between the destabilisation and the accumulation of noise, which we term the memory effect, underlies phase locking to the seasonal cycle and the statistical nature of seasonal predictability.

  4. The history of NATO TNF policy: The role of studies, analysis and exercises conference proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rinne, R.L.

    1994-02-01

    This conference was organized to study and analyze the role of simulation, analysis, modeling, and exercises in the history of NATO policy. The premise was not that the results of past studies will apply to future policy, but rather that understanding what influenced the decision process -- and how -- would be of value. The structure of the conference was built around discussion panels. The panels were augmented by a series of papers and presentations focusing on particular TNF events, issues, studies, or exercises. The conference proceedings consist of three volumes. Volume 1 contains the conference introduction, agenda, biographical sketches of principal participants, and analytical summary of the presentations and panels. This volume contains a short introduction and the papers and presentations from the conference. Volume 3 contains selected papers by Brig. Gen. Robert C. Richardson III (Ret.). Individual papers in this volume were abstracted and indexed for the database

  5. Methodology Series Module 6: Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setia, Maninder Singh

    2016-01-01

    Systematic reviews and meta-analysis have become an important of biomedical literature, and they provide the "highest level of evidence" for various clinical questions. There are a lot of studies - sometimes with contradictory conclusions - on a particular topic in literature. Hence, as a clinician, which results will you believe? What will you tell your patient? Which drug is better? A systematic review or a meta-analysis may help us answer these questions. In addition, it may also help us understand the quality of the articles in literature or the type of studies that have been conducted and published (example, randomized trials or observational studies). The first step it to identify a research question for systematic review or meta-analysis. The next step is to identify the articles that will be included in the study. This will be done by searching various databases; it is important that the researcher should search for articles in more than one database. It will also be useful to form a group of researchers and statisticians that have expertise in conducting systematic reviews and meta-analysis before initiating them. We strongly encourage the readers to register their proposed review/meta-analysis with PROSPERO. Finally, these studies should be reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis checklist.

  6. An analysis of policy success and failure in formal evaluations of Australia's national mental health strategy (1992-2012).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, Francesca C; Meurk, Carla S; Head, Brian W; Hall, Wayne D; Harris, Meredith G; Whiteford, Harvey A

    2017-05-30

    Heightened fiscal constraints, increases in the chronic disease burden and in consumer expectations are among several factors contributing to the global interest in evidence-informed health policy. The present article builds on previous work that explored how the Australian Federal Government applied five instruments of policy, or policy levers, to implement a series of reforms under the Australian National Mental Health Strategy (NMHS). The present article draws on theoretical insights from political science to analyse the relative successes and failures of these levers, as portrayed in formal government evaluations of the NMHS. Documentary analysis of six evaluation documents corresponding to three National Mental Health Plans was undertaken. Both the content and approach of these government-funded, independently conducted evaluations were appraised. An overall improvement was apparent in the development and application of policy levers over time. However, this finding should be interpreted with caution due to variations in evaluation approach according to Plan and policy lever. Tabulated summaries of the success and failure of each policy initiative, ordered by lever type, are provided to establish a resource that could be consulted for future policy-making. This analysis highlights the complexities of health service reform and underscores the limitations of narrowly focused empirical approaches. A theoretical framework is provided that could inform the evaluation and targeted selection of appropriate policy levers in mental health.

  7. A policy analysis of the problem of the reproductive health of women in the workplace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotch, J B; Ossler, C C; Howze, D C

    1984-06-01

    Many occupations in which women comprise the majority of the workforce involve exposure to biological, physical, and chemical hazards. Potential reproductive effects of work-related substances include impaired reproductive capacity, mutagenesis, teratogenesis, and transplacental carcinogenesis. However, female-dominated occupations tend to be only minimally regulated by the US Occupational Safety and Health Administration, and the corporate response to the issue of reproductive and fetal health has been to institute "protective discrimination policies" such as the demotion or exclusion of women of childbearing age from certain jobs. This article rates the effectiveness of alternate policy responses to increase women's occupational health and safety through use of a series of analysis criteria: equity, efficiency, preference satisfaction, right to privacy, avoidance of stigma, and unintended consequences. Policy options include the following: 1) do nothing, 2) leave current policies intact while supporting a research program to document the health consequences of specific occupational risks to women's reproductive health, 3) restrict women for who pregnancy is not ruled out from occupations or work areas known or suspected to be hazardous, 4) improve working conditions for all women, and 5) improve working conditions for all workers. Policy analysis suggests the working conditions of all workers should be improved. This alternative reduces inequity, eliminates stigma, maintains privacy, and honors preferences. Implementation of this policy would be expensive, requiring an increase in knowledge of the effects of industrial substances on female and male reproductive health, expansion of the technical capacity to control occupational hazards, and an increase in the resources of programs that monitor and regulate occupational health. However, this approach is in accord with growing concern that workers should not have to compromise their health to keep their jobs.

  8. A novel water quality data analysis framework based on time-series data mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Weihui; Wang, Guoyin

    2017-07-01

    The rapid development of time-series data mining provides an emerging method for water resource management research. In this paper, based on the time-series data mining methodology, we propose a novel and general analysis framework for water quality time-series data. It consists of two parts: implementation components and common tasks of time-series data mining in water quality data. In the first part, we propose to granulate the time series into several two-dimensional normal clouds and calculate the similarities in the granulated level. On the basis of the similarity matrix, the similarity search, anomaly detection, and pattern discovery tasks in the water quality time-series instance dataset can be easily implemented in the second part. We present a case study of this analysis framework on weekly Dissolve Oxygen time-series data collected from five monitoring stations on the upper reaches of Yangtze River, China. It discovered the relationship of water quality in the mainstream and tributary as well as the main changing patterns of DO. The experimental results show that the proposed analysis framework is a feasible and efficient method to mine the hidden and valuable knowledge from water quality historical time-series data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Time series analysis of diverse extreme phenomena: universal features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eftaxias, K.; Balasis, G.

    2012-04-01

    The field of study of complex systems holds that the dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that may used to describe a great variety of scientific and technological approaches of different types of natural, artificial, and social systems. We suggest that earthquake, epileptic seizures, solar flares, and magnetic storms dynamics can be analyzed within similar mathematical frameworks. A central property of aforementioned extreme events generation is the occurrence of coherent large-scale collective behavior with very rich structure, resulting from repeated nonlinear interactions among the corresponding constituents. Consequently, we apply the Tsallis nonextensive statistical mechanics as it proves an appropriate framework in order to investigate universal principles of their generation. First, we examine the data in terms of Tsallis entropy aiming to discover common "pathological" symptoms of transition to a significant shock. By monitoring the temporal evolution of the degree of organization in time series we observe similar distinctive features revealing significant reduction of complexity during their emergence. Second, a model for earthquake dynamics coming from a nonextensive Tsallis formalism, starting from first principles, has been recently introduced. This approach leads to an energy distribution function (Gutenberg-Richter type law) for the magnitude distribution of earthquakes, providing an excellent fit to seismicities generated in various large geographic areas usually identified as seismic regions. We show that this function is able to describe the energy distribution (with similar non-extensive q-parameter) of solar flares, magnetic storms, epileptic and earthquake shocks. The above mentioned evidence of a universal statistical behavior suggests the possibility of a common approach for studying space weather, earthquakes and epileptic seizures.

  10. Cerebral Venous-Sinus Thrombosis: A Case Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nahid Ashjazadeh

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Cerebral venous-sinus thrombosis is an uncommon form but important cause of stroke, especially in young-aged women. Methods: We performed a retrospective descriptive-analytical study in which 124 patients with cerebral venous-sinus thrombosis, who referred to Nemazee Hospital, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences from January 2000 to March 2008, were included, and their demographic, etiologic, radiological and prognostic characteristics were evaluated. Results: The patients' mean age was 34.01±10.25. Eighty seven (70.16% were women and 37 (29.83% were men. The most frequent clinical manifestations were headache, papilledema and seizures. Fifty seven (65.51% women took oral contraceptive pills. Twenty of 57 women (35.08% took the pill longer than one month to be able to fast in Ramadan or perform the Hajj ceremonies. In the mean time they developed cerebral venous-sinus thrombosis. Superior sagital sinus, with or without lateral sinuses, was the most involved area (70.96%. High mortality and morbidity rates (14.51% and 35.48%, respectively were found in patients. Poor prognostic factors at the time of admission were stupor and coma (P=0.001 and evidence of hemorrhage in primary CT scan (P=0.005. Conclusion: Taking oral contraceptive pills was a main factor associated with cerebral venous-sinus thrombosis. Clinical manifestations, prognostic factors, common involved sinuses and image findings of this study were similar to those of other studies. Health care policy makers should design a plan to warn susceptible women of the risk of cerebral venous-sinus thrombosis, and to educate them the ways to prevent it

  11. Real analysis series, functions of several variables, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Laczkovich, Miklós

    2017-01-01

    This book develops the theory of multivariable analysis, building on the single variable foundations established in the companion volume, Real Analysis: Foundations and Functions of One Variable. Together, these volumes form the first English edition of the popular Hungarian original, Valós Analízis I & II, based on courses taught by the authors at Eötvös Loránd University, Hungary, for more than 30 years. Numerous exercises are included throughout, offering ample opportunities to master topics by progressing from routine to difficult problems. Hints or solutions to many of the more challenging exercises make this book ideal for independent study, or further reading. Intended as a sequel to a course in single variable analysis, this book builds upon and expands these ideas into higher dimensions. The modular organization makes this text adaptable for either a semester or year-long introductory course. Topics include: differentiation and integration of functions of several variables; infinite numerica...

  12. Analysis of engineering cycles thermodynamics and fluid mechanics series

    CERN Document Server

    Haywood, R W

    1980-01-01

    Analysis of Engineering Cycles, Third Edition, deals principally with an analysis of the overall performance, under design conditions, of work-producing power plants and work-absorbing refrigerating and gas-liquefaction plants, most of which are either cyclic or closely related thereto. The book is organized into two parts, dealing first with simple power and refrigerating plants and then moving on to more complex plants. The principal modifications in this Third Edition arise from the updating and expansion of material on nuclear plants and on combined and binary plants. In view of increased

  13. Economic analysis requirements in support of orbital debris regulatory policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Joel S.

    1996-10-01

    As the number of Earth orbiting objects increases so does the potential for generating orbital debris with the consequent increase in the likelihood of impacting and damaging operating satellites. Various debris remediation approaches are being considered that encompass both in-orbit and return-to-Earth schema and have varying degrees of operations, cost, international competitiveness, and safety implications. Because of the diversity of issues, concerns and long-term impacts, there is a clear need for the setting of government policies that will lead to an orderly abatement of the potential orbital debris hazards. These policies may require the establishment of a supportive regulatory regime. The Department of Transportation is likely to have regulatory responsibilities relating to orbital debris stemming from its charge to protect the public health and safety, safety of property, and national security interests and foreign policy interests of the United States. This paper describes DOT's potential regulatory role relating to orbital debris remediation, the myriad of issues concerning the need for establishing government policies relating to orbital debris remediation and their regulatory implications, the proposed technological solutions and their economic and safety implications. Particular emphasis is placed upon addressing cost-effectiveness and economic analyses as they relate to economic impact analysis in support of regulatory impact analysis.

  14. Assumptions and Policy Decisions for Vital Area Identification Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Myungsu; Bae, Yeon-Kyoung; Lee, Youngseung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and IAEA guidance indicate that certain assumptions and policy questions should be addressed to a Vital Area Identification (VAI) process. Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power conducted a VAI based on current Design Basis Threat and engineering judgement to identify APR1400 vital areas. Some of the assumptions were inherited from Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) as a sabotage logic model was based on PSA logic tree and equipment location data. This paper illustrates some important assumptions and policy decisions for APR1400 VAI analysis. Assumptions and policy decisions could be overlooked at the beginning stage of VAI, however they should be carefully reviewed and discussed among engineers, plant operators, and regulators. Through APR1400 VAI process, some of the policy concerns and assumptions for analysis were applied based on document research and expert panel discussions. It was also found that there are more assumptions to define for further studies for other types of nuclear power plants. One of the assumptions is mission time, which was inherited from PSA.

  15. Establishment of a Policy Analysis Capability in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carole M.P. NEVES

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The Romanian government, like other governments of former communist countries, emerged from the collapsed Soviet Union ill prepared to confront the complex challenges of governing under a democratic, free market system. At the core of governments that formulate sound public policies, successfully implement programs, and respond effectively to rapidly changing situations is the capacity to carry out independent, high quality research and analysis that results in improved decision making. During the 21st century, the need and acceptance of the incorporation of policy analysis courses in public administration curricula in Romania is expected to grow. In time, educational programs are expected to result in the following consequences: _ Formation of a body of strong independent policy researchers employed by the national and local governments as well as by universities and non-profit institutions _ Utilization of analytical outcomes as tools of political, social and economic improvement by the executive, legislative and judicial branches and by non-profit and private sectors _ Greater public understanding of and participation in public policy processes.

  16. Cluster Analysis as an Analytical Tool of Population Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana Mikhaylovna Shubat

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The predicted negative trends in Russian demography (falling birth rates, population decline actualize the need to strengthen measures of family and population policy. Our research purpose is to identify groups of Russian regions with similar characteristics in the family sphere using cluster analysis. The findings should make an important contribution to the field of family policy. We used hierarchical cluster analysis based on the Ward method and the Euclidean distance for segmentation of Russian regions. Clustering is based on four variables, which allowed assessing the family institution in the region. The authors used the data of Federal State Statistics Service from 2010 to 2015. Clustering and profiling of each segment has allowed forming a model of Russian regions depending on the features of the family institution in these regions. The authors revealed four clusters grouping regions with similar problems in the family sphere. This segmentation makes it possible to develop the most relevant family policy measures in each group of regions. Thus, the analysis has shown a high degree of differentiation of the family institution in the regions. This suggests that a unified approach to population problems’ solving is far from being effective. To achieve greater results in the implementation of family policy, a differentiated approach is needed. Methods of multidimensional data classification can be successfully applied as a relevant analytical toolkit. Further research could develop the adaptation of multidimensional classification methods to the analysis of the population problems in Russian regions. In particular, the algorithms of nonparametric cluster analysis may be of relevance in future studies.

  17. Quality in environmental science for policy: Assessing uncertainty as a component of policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maxim, Laura; Sluijs, Jeroen P. van der

    2011-01-01

    The sheer number of attempts to define and classify uncertainty reveals an awareness of its importance in environmental science for policy, though the nature of uncertainty is often misunderstood. The interdisciplinary field of uncertainty analysis is unstable; there are currently several incomplete notions of uncertainty leading to different and incompatible uncertainty classifications. One of the most salient shortcomings of present-day practice is that most of these classifications focus on quantifying uncertainty while ignoring the qualitative aspects that tend to be decisive in the interface between science and policy. Consequently, the current practices of uncertainty analysis contribute to increasing the perceived precision of scientific knowledge, but do not adequately address its lack of socio-political relevance. The 'positivistic' uncertainty analysis models (like those that dominate the fields of climate change modelling and nuclear or chemical risk assessment) have little social relevance, as they do not influence negotiations between stakeholders. From the perspective of the science-policy interface, the current practices of uncertainty analysis are incomplete and incorrectly focused. We argue that although scientific knowledge produced and used in a context of political decision-making embodies traditional scientific characteristics, it also holds additional properties linked to its influence on social, political, and economic relations. Therefore, the significance of uncertainty cannot be assessed based on quality criteria that refer to the scientific content only; uncertainty must also include quality criteria specific to the properties and roles of this scientific knowledge within political, social, and economic contexts and processes. We propose a conceptual framework designed to account for such substantive, contextual, and procedural criteria of knowledge quality. At the same time, the proposed framework includes and synthesizes the various

  18. Impact of pharmaceutical policy interventions on utilization of antipsychotic medicines in Finland and Portugal in times of economic recession: interrupted time series analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leopold, Christine; Zhang, Fang; Mantel-Teeuwisse, Aukje K; Vogler, Sabine; Valkova, Silvia; Ross-Degnan, Dennis; Wagner, Anita K

    2014-07-25

    To analyze the impacts of pharmaceutical sector policies implemented to contain country spending during the economic recession--a reference price system in Finland and a mix of policies including changes in reimbursement rates, a generic promotion campaign and discounts granted to the public payer in Portugal - on utilization of, as a proxy for access to, antipsychotic medicines. We obtained monthly IMS Health sales data in standard units of antipsychotic medicines in Portugal and Finland for the period January 2007 to December 2011. We used an interrupted time series design to estimate changes in overall use and generic market shares by comparing pre-policy and post-policy levels and trends. Both countries' policy approaches were associated with slight, likely unintended, decreases in overall use of antipsychotic medicines and with increases in generic market shares of major antipsychotic products. In Finland, quetiapine and risperidone generic market shares increased substantially (estimates one year post-policy compared to before, quetiapine: 6.80% [3.92%, 9.68%]; risperidone: 11.13% [6.79%, 15.48%]. The policy interventions in Portugal resulted in a substantially increased generic market share for amisulpride (estimate one year post-policy compared to before: 22.95% [21.01%, 24.90%]; generic risperidone already dominated the market prior to the policy interventions. Different policy approaches to contain pharmaceutical expenditures in times of the economic recession in Finland and Portugal had intended--increased use of generics--and likely unintended--slightly decreased overall sales, possibly consistent with decreased access to needed medicines--impacts. These findings highlight the importance of monitoring and evaluating the effects of pharmaceutical policy interventions on use of medicines and health outcomes.

  19. Time series analysis of aerobic bacterial flora during Miso fermentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onda, T; Yanagida, F; Tsuji, M; Shinohara, T; Yokotsuka, K

    2003-01-01

    This article reports a microbiological study of aerobic mesophilic bacteria that are present during the fermentation process of Miso. Aerobic bacteria were enumerated and isolated from Miso during fermentation and divided into nine groups using traditional phenotypic tests. The strains were identified by biochemical analysis and 16S rRNA sequence analysis. They were identified as Bacillus subtilis, B. amyloliquefaciens, Kocuria kristinae, Staphylococcus gallinarum and S. kloosii. All strains were sensitive to the bacteriocins produced by the lactic acid bacteria isolated from Miso. The dominant species among the undesirable species throughout the fermentation process were B. subtilis and B. amyloliquefaciens. It is suggested that bacteriocin-producing lactic acid bacteria are effective in the growth prevention of aerobic bacteria in Miso. This study has provided useful information for controlling of bacterial flora during Miso fermentation.

  20. Studying Policy Transfer through the Lens of Social Network Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staunæs, Dorthe; Brøgger, Katja; Steiner-Khamsi, Gita

    Studying Policy Transfer through the Lens of Social Network Analysis The panelists present the findings of a joint empirical research project carried out at Aarhus University (DPU/Copenhagen) and at Teachers College, Columbia University (New York). The research project succeeded to identify...... discursive networks of political stakeholders and policy advisors that were considered key actors in the Danish school reform. The research team investigated how these networks interrelate, change over time, and represent different constituents (government, academe, business), at times contradicting...... or collaborating with each other, respectively. Against the backdrop of globalization studies in comparative education, the research project attempted to identify borrowers, translators, and brokers of educational reform drawing on a complementary set of expertise from social network analysis methodology (Oren...

  1. Determinants of Egyptian Banking Sector Profitability: Time-Series Analysis from 2004-2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heba Youssef Hashem

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the determinants of banking sector profitability in Egypt to shed light on the most influential variables that have a significant impact on the performance of this vital sector. Design/methodology/approach - The analysis includes a time series model of quarterly data from 2004 to 2014. The model utilizes Cointegration technique to investigate the long-run relationship between the return on equity as a proxy for bank profitability and several bank-specific variables including liquidity, capital adequacy, and percentage of non-performing loans. In addition, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM is utilized to explore the short-run dynamics of the model and the speed of adjustment to reach the long-run equilibrium. Findings - The main findings of this work show that banking sector profitability is inversely related to capital adequacy, the percentage of loan provisions and the ratio of deposits to total assets. On the other hand, it is positively related to the size of the banking sector which implies that the banking sector exhibits economies of scale. Research limitations/implications - The implications of this work is that it helps reveal the major factors affecting bank performance in the short-run and long-run, and hence provide bank managers and monetary policy makers with beneficial insights on how to enhance bank performance. Since the banking sector represents one of the main engines of financing investment, enhancing the efficiency of this sector would contribute to economic growth and prosperity Originality/value - The Vector error correction model showed that about 4% of the disequilibrium is corrected each quarter to reach the long run equilibrium. In addition, all bank specific variables were found to affect profitability in the long-run only. This study would serve as a base that further work on Egyptian banking sector profitability can build on by incorporating more variables in the

  2. Cluster analysis of activity-time series in motor learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balslev, Daniela; Nielsen, Finn Årup; Frutiger, Sally A.

    2002-01-01

    Neuroimaging studies of learning focus on brain areas where the activity changes as a function of time. To circumvent the difficult problem of model selection, we used a data-driven analytic tool, cluster analysis, which extracts representative temporal and spatial patterns from the voxel...... practice-related activity in a fronto-parieto-cerebellar network, in agreement with previous studies of motor learning. These voxels were separated from a group of voxels showing an unspecific time-effect and another group of voxels, whose activation was an artifact from smoothing. Hum. Brain Mapping 15...

  3. Exploratory Modeling and the use of Simulation for Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-01-01

    and the Use of Simulation for Policy Analysis Steven C. Barikes Prepared for the United States Army R A N D Approved for public release; distribution...Research, Vol. 39, No. 3, May-June 1991, pp. 355-365. Lipton, Richard J ., Thomas G. Marr, and J . Douglas Welsh, "Computational Approaches to Discovering...the Visual Cortex, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1985. / -30- Rothenberg, J ., N. Z. Shapiro, and C. Hefley, "A Propagative’ Approach to Sensitivity

  4. A Computable OLG Model for Gender and Growth Policy Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Pierre-Richard Agénor

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops a computable Overlapping Generations (OLG) model for gender and growth policy analysis. The model accounts for human and physical capital accumulation (both public and private), intra- and inter-generational health persistence, fertility choices, and women's time allocation between market work, child rearing, and home production. Bargaining between spouses and gender bias, in the form of discrimination in the work place and mothers' time allocation between daughters and so...

  5. An Analysis of Reconstituted Fluid Milk Pricing Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Glen D. Whipple

    1983-01-01

    This analysis suggests that alteration of the reconstituted fluid milk pricing provisions of federal and state milk market orders would have a substantial impact on market equilibrium. A reactive programming model of the U.S. milk market was used to simulate the effects of altered reconstituted fluid milk pricing policy. The solutions indicate that reconstituted fluid milk, as a lower cost alternative to fresh fluid milk, would make up a substantial portion of the fluid milk consumption in so...

  6. Using Argumentation Logic for Firewall Policy Specification and Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Bandara, Arosha K.; Kakas, Antonis; Lupu, Emil C.; Russo, Alessandra

    2006-01-01

    Firewalls are important perimeter security mechanisms that imple-ment an organisation's network security requirements and can be notoriously difficult to configure correctly. Given their widespread use, it is crucial that network administrators have tools to translate their security requirements into firewall configuration rules and ensure that these rules are consistent with each other. In this paper we propose an approach to firewall policy specification and analysis that uses a formal fram...

  7. Development and Analysis of Security Policies in Security Enhanced Android

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    by Tresys Technology [32]. The suite contains tools for SE policy creation, management, and analysis. Apol provides a graphical interface for...runs under a predefined platform user: system, nfc , radio, etc. The third and fourth checks simply deal with different user strings, with fixed...system user id to the system domain and their application directories to system_data_file. Similarly, applications under the nfc and radio user id

  8. Globalization and Public Policy Analysis: A Case Study of Foreign Policy of ASEAN Member States

    OpenAIRE

    Nattapol Pourprasert

    2016-01-01

    This study has an objective to analyze foreign policy of member states in globalization current, aiming to answer that the foreign policy of member states have been changed or remained the same and there are any factors affecting changing of foreign policy of the member states. From the study results, it is found that the foreign policy of Thailand is a friendly foreign policy with all states. The policy of Indonesia is more opened because of a change in leader, allowing ...

  9. Green Power voluntary purchases: Price elasticity and policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mewton, Ross T.; Cacho, Oscar J.

    2011-01-01

    Green Power schemes offer electricity from renewable energy sources to customers for a higher price than ordinary electricity. This study examines the demand characteristics of Green Power in Australia and policies which could increase its sales. A sample of 250 pooled time series and cross sectional observations was used to estimate a statistically significant elasticity of demand for Green Power with respect to price of -0.96 with a 95% confidence interval of ±68%. The wide variation in market penetration between jurisdictions and between countries for Green Power, and the low awareness of Green Power found by surveys indicate that Green Power sales could be increased by appropriate marketing and government policies. The most cost effective means to increase sales was found to be advertising campaigns although only one Australian example was found, in the state of Victoria in 2005. It was also found that full tax deductibility of the Green Power premium to residential customers, exemption from the Goods and Services Tax and a tax rebate for Green Power are all probably less cost effective for promoting sales than direct government purchase of Green Power, in terms of cost per unit of increased sales.

  10. Analysis of Dividend Policy of the Romanian Financial Investment Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta BARBUTA-MISU

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of dividend policy, promoted by a joint-stock company may be: building trust and forming a true business ownership, business growth, increase creditworthiness of the company and of trust others to it. The paper aim is to study the dividend policy to those five Romanian Financial Investment Companies in the period 2006-2012, through a series of specific indicators such as: dividend per share, dividend growth rate, dividend distribution rate, dividend yield, earnings per share, price earnings ratio, in order to reflect the performance and the impact of financial crisis on their performance on the financial market. Tracking the dynamics of these indicators allows us to draw conclusions on the position of the companies on the securities market, and their level influences the decision of shareholders to maintain or withdraw of shares, to invest in other more profitable businesses. Dividend yields made every year by Financial Investment Companies justify the high interest from investors for these shares. Currently, these companies offer a very attractive return for investors compared to the average dividend yield of the Stock Exchange. The evolution of the price earnings ratio shows the normal trend of rise of the companies’ shares in the period 2007-2008, after that they have entered the market at highly undervalued levels especially after declining in 2008.

  11. Green Power voluntary purchases: Price elasticity and policy analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mewton, Ross T., E-mail: rtmewton@hotmail.co [University of New England (Australia); Cacho, Oscar J. [School of Business Economics and Public Policy, School of Economics, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351 (Australia)

    2011-01-15

    Green Power schemes offer electricity from renewable energy sources to customers for a higher price than ordinary electricity. This study examines the demand characteristics of Green Power in Australia and policies which could increase its sales. A sample of 250 pooled time series and cross sectional observations was used to estimate a statistically significant elasticity of demand for Green Power with respect to price of -0.96 with a 95% confidence interval of {+-}68%. The wide variation in market penetration between jurisdictions and between countries for Green Power, and the low awareness of Green Power found by surveys indicate that Green Power sales could be increased by appropriate marketing and government policies. The most cost effective means to increase sales was found to be advertising campaigns although only one Australian example was found, in the state of Victoria in 2005. It was also found that full tax deductibility of the Green Power premium to residential customers, exemption from the Goods and Services Tax and a tax rebate for Green Power are all probably less cost effective for promoting sales than direct government purchase of Green Power, in terms of cost per unit of increased sales.

  12. Green Power voluntary purchases. Price elasticity and policy analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mewton, Ross T. [University of New England (Australia); Cacho, Oscar J. [School of Business Economics and Public Policy, School of Economics, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351 (Australia)

    2011-01-15

    Green Power schemes offer electricity from renewable energy sources to customers for a higher price than ordinary electricity. This study examines the demand characteristics of Green Power in Australia and policies which could increase its sales. A sample of 250 pooled time series and cross sectional observations was used to estimate a statistically significant elasticity of demand for Green Power with respect to price of -0.96 with a 95% confidence interval of {+-}68%. The wide variation in market penetration between jurisdictions and between countries for Green Power, and the low awareness of Green Power found by surveys indicate that Green Power sales could be increased by appropriate marketing and government policies. The most cost effective means to increase sales was found to be advertising campaigns although only one Australian example was found, in the state of Victoria in 2005. It was also found that full tax deductibility of the Green Power premium to residential customers, exemption from the Goods and Services Tax and a tax rebate for Green Power are all probably less cost effective for promoting sales than direct government purchase of Green Power, in terms of cost per unit of increased sales. (author)

  13. Policies for Reintegrating Crop and Livestock Systems: A Comparative Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachael D. Garrett

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The reintegration of crop and livestock systems within the same land area has the potential to improve soil quality and reduce water and air pollution, while maintaining high yields and reducing risk. In this study, we characterize the degree to which federal policies in three major global food production regions that span a range of socioeconomic contexts, Brazil, New Zealand, and the United States, incentivize or disincentivize the use of integrated crop and livestock practices (ICLS. Our analysis indicates that Brazil and New Zealand have the most favorable policy environment for ICLS, while the United States provides the least favorable environment. The balance of policy incentives and disincentives across our three cases studies mirrors current patterns of ICLS usage. Brazil and New Zealand have both undergone a trend toward mixed crop livestock systems in recent years, while the United States has transitioned rapidly toward continuous crop and livestock production. If transitions to ICLS are desired, particularly in the United States, it will be necessary to change agricultural, trade, environmental, biofuels, and food safety policies that currently buffer farmers from risk, provide too few incentives for pollution reduction, and restrict the presence of animals in crop areas. It will also be necessary to invest more in research and development in all countries to identify the most profitable ICLS technologies in each region.

  14. AN ANALYSIS OF IMPORTANT POLICIES FOR ACCELERATING DEVELOPMENT IN NEPAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudarshan Neupane

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Nepal belongs to one of the least developed countries around the world with HDI 157 out of 187 countries (UNDP 2013. Even though poverty in Nepal has reduced to 24.8% in the latest census, the livelihoods of the poorest people living in the remote communities are still vulnerable. Two third of the population still depends on the subsistence agriculture. Similarly, due to lack of job opportunities, youth migration is escalating and Nepal is facing one of the most critical phases of development in its history (Snellinger 2009. Inadequate infrastructure and poor road connectivity are other constraints for the development (World Bank 2011. It follows that, poor access to electricity is another challenge despite the country’s enormous potential for hydroelectricity. Similarly, Nepal  has huge prospective for tourism due to its unique natural resources (Bhandari 2004. Nonetheless, Nepal has not benefited optimally from the tourism sector for its self-sustained development. Recently Government of Nepal (2011 has announced diverse policies for accelerating development through proper utilization of local resources. This paper critically evaluates the crucial policies such as Agriculture Development Strategy, National Cooperatives Policy, National Youth Policy, and Micro-hydro for Rural Development, and Tourism for Development. The paper discusses each of these policies’ background; critically analyse the likelihood as well as challenges for fast-tracking development; and finally offers some recommendations based discussion and analysis.

  15. Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis on gold, crude oil and foreign exchange rate time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Mayukha; Madhusudana Rao, P.; Manimaran, P.

    2014-12-01

    We apply the recently developed multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis method to investigate the cross-correlation behavior and fractal nature between two non-stationary time series. We analyze the daily return price of gold, West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil, foreign exchange rate data, over a period of 18 years. The cross correlation has been measured from the Hurst scaling exponents and the singularity spectrum quantitatively. From the results, the existence of multifractal cross-correlation between all of these time series is found. We also found that the cross correlation between gold and oil prices possess uncorrelated behavior and the remaining bivariate time series possess persistent behavior. It was observed for five bivariate series that the cross-correlation exponents are less than the calculated average generalized Hurst exponents (GHE) for q0 and for one bivariate series the cross-correlation exponent is greater than GHE for all q values.

  16. A Reception Analysis on the Youth Audiences of TV Series in Marivan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omid Karimi

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to describe the role of foreign media as the agitators of popular culture. For that with reception analysis it’s pay to describe decoding of youth audiences about this series. Globalization theory and Reception in Communication theory are formed the theoretical system of current article. The methodology in this research is qualitative one, and two techniques as in-depth interview and observation are used for data collection. The results show different people based on individual features, social and cultural backgrounds have inclination toward special characters and identify with them. This inclination so far the audience fallow the series because of his/her favorite character. Also there is a great compatibility between audience backgrounds and their receptions. A number of audience have criticized the series and point out the negative consequences on its society. However, seeing the series continue; really they prefer watching series enjoying to risks of it.

  17. Cerebral venous sinus thrombosis on MRI: A case series analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjay M Khaladkar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST is a rare form of stroke seen in young and middle aged group, especially in women due to thrombus of dural venous sinuses and can cause acute neurological deterioration with increased morbidity and mortality if not diagnosed in early stage. Neurological deficit occurs due to focal or diffuse cerebral edema and venous non-hemorrhagic or hemorrhagic infarct. Aim and Objectives: To assess/evaluate the role of Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI and Magnetic Resonance Venography (MRV as an imaging modality for early diagnosis of CVST and to study patterns of venous thrombosis, in detecting changes in brain parenchyma and residual effects of CVST using MRI. Materials and Methods: Retrospective descriptive analysis of 40 patients of CVST diagnosed on MRI brain and MRV was done. Results: 29/40 (72.5% were males and 11/40 (27.5% were females. Most of the patients were in the age group of 21-40 years (23/40-57.5%. Most of the patients 16/40 (40% presented within 7 days. No definite cause of CVST was found in 24 (60% patients in spite of detailed history. In 36/40 (90% of cases major sinuses were involved, deep venous system were involved in 7/40 (17.5% cases, superficial cortical vein was involved in 1/40 (2.5% cases. Analysis of stage of thrombus (acute, subacute, chronic was done based on its appearance on T1 and T2WI. 31/40 (77.5% patients showed complete absence of flow on MRV, while 9/40 (22.5% cases showed partial flow on MR venogram. Brain parenchyma was normal in 20/40 (50% patients while 6/40 (15% cases had non-hemorrhagic infarct and 14/40 (35% patients presented with hemorrhagic infarct. Conclusion: Our study concluded that MRI brain with MRV is sensitive in diagnosing both direct signs (evidence of thrombus inside the affected veins and indirect signs (parenchymal changes of CVST and their follow up.

  18. Multichannel biomedical time series clustering via hierarchical probabilistic latent semantic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jin; Sun, Xiangping; Nahavandi, Saeid; Kouzani, Abbas; Wu, Yuchuan; She, Mary

    2014-11-01

    Biomedical time series clustering that automatically groups a collection of time series according to their internal similarity is of importance for medical record management and inspection such as bio-signals archiving and retrieval. In this paper, a novel framework that automatically groups a set of unlabelled multichannel biomedical time series according to their internal structural similarity is proposed. Specifically, we treat a multichannel biomedical time series as a document and extract local segments from the time series as words. We extend a topic model, i.e., the Hierarchical probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (H-pLSA), which was originally developed for visual motion analysis to cluster a set of unlabelled multichannel time series. The H-pLSA models each channel of the multichannel time series using a local pLSA in the first layer. The topics learned in the local pLSA are then fed to a global pLSA in the second layer to discover the categories of multichannel time series. Experiments on a dataset extracted from multichannel Electrocardiography (ECG) signals demonstrate that the proposed method performs better than previous state-of-the-art approaches and is relatively robust to the variations of parameters including length of local segments and dictionary size. Although the experimental evaluation used the multichannel ECG signals in a biometric scenario, the proposed algorithm is a universal framework for multichannel biomedical time series clustering according to their structural similarity, which has many applications in biomedical time series management. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Chaos in Electronic Circuits: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wheat, Jr., Robert M. [Kennedy Western Univ., Cheyenne, WY (United States)

    2003-07-01

    Chaos in electronic circuits is a phenomenon that has been largely ignored by engineers, manufacturers, and researchers until the early 1990’s and the work of Chua, Matsumoto, and others. As the world becomes more dependent on electronic devices, the detrimental effects of non-normal operation of these devices becomes more significant. Developing a better understanding of the mechanisms involved in the chaotic behavior of electronic circuits is a logical step toward the prediction and prevention of any potentially catastrophic occurrence of this phenomenon. Also, a better understanding of chaotic behavior, in a general sense, could potentially lead to better accuracy in the prediction of natural events such as weather, volcanic activity, and earthquakes. As a first step in this improvement of understanding, and as part of the research being reported here, methods of computer modeling, identifying and analyzing, and producing chaotic behavior in simple electronic circuits have been developed. The computer models were developed using both the Alternative Transient Program (ATP) and Spice, the analysis techniques have been implemented using the C and C++ programming languages, and the chaotically behaving circuits developed using “off the shelf” electronic components.

  20. Financing Human Development for Sectorial Growth: A Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shobande Abdul Olatunji

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The role which financing human development plays in fostering the sectorial growth of an economy cannot be undermined. It is a key instrument which can be utilized to alleviate poverty, create employment and ensure the sustenance of economic growth and development. Thus financing human development for sectorial growth has taken the center stage of economic growth and development strategies in most countries. In a constructive effort to examine the in-depth relationship between the variables in the Nigerian space, this paper provides evidence on the impact of financing human development and sectorial growth in Nigeria between 1982 and 2016, using the Johansen co-integration techniques to test for co-integration among the variables and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM to ascertain the speed of adjustment of the variables to their long run equilibrium position. The analysis shows that a long and short run relationship exists between financing human capital development and sectorial growth during the period reviewed. Therefore, the paper argues that for an active foundation for sustainable sectorial growth and development, financing human capital development across each unit is urgently required through increased budgetary allocation for both health and educational sectors since they are key components of human capital development in a nation.

  1. Spatially adaptive mixture modeling for analysis of FMRI time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, Thomas; Risser, Laurent; Ciuciu, Philippe

    2010-04-01

    Within-subject analysis in fMRI essentially addresses two problems, the detection of brain regions eliciting evoked activity and the estimation of the underlying dynamics. In Makni et aL, 2005 and Makni et aL, 2008, a detection-estimation framework has been proposed to tackle these problems jointly, since they are connected to one another. In the Bayesian formalism, detection is achieved by modeling activating and nonactivating voxels through independent mixture models (IMM) within each region while hemodynamic response estimation is performed at a regional scale in a nonparametric way. Instead of IMMs, in this paper we take advantage of spatial mixture models (SMM) for their nonlinear spatial regularizing properties. The proposed method is unsupervised and spatially adaptive in the sense that the amount of spatial correlation is automatically tuned from the data and this setting automatically varies across brain regions. In addition, the level of regularization is specific to each experimental condition since both the signal-to-noise ratio and the activation pattern may vary across stimulus types in a given brain region. These aspects require the precise estimation of multiple partition functions of underlying Ising fields. This is addressed efficiently using first path sampling for a small subset of fields and then using a recently developed fast extrapolation technique for the large remaining set. Simulation results emphasize that detection relying on supervised SMM outperforms its IMM counterpart and that unsupervised spatial mixture models achieve similar results without any hand-tuning of the correlation parameter. On real datasets, the gain is illustrated in a localizer fMRI experiment: brain activations appear more spatially resolved using SMM in comparison with classical general linear model (GLM)-based approaches, while estimating a specific parcel-based HRF shape. Our approach therefore validates the treatment of unsmoothed fMRI data without fixed GLM

  2. Simultaneous determination of radionuclides separable into natural decay series by use of time-interval analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashimoto, Tetsuo; Sanada, Yukihisa; Uezu, Yasuhiro

    2004-01-01

    A delayed coincidence method, time-interval analysis (TIA), has been applied to successive α-α decay events on the millisecond time-scale. Such decay events are part of the 220 Rn→ 216 Po (T 1/2 145 ms) (Th-series) and 219 Rn→ 215 Po (T 1/2 1.78 ms) (Ac-series). By using TIA in addition to measurement of 226 Ra (U-series) from α-spectrometry by liquid scintillation counting (LSC), two natural decay series could be identified and separated. The TIA detection efficiency was improved by using the pulse-shape discrimination technique (PSD) to reject β-pulses, by solvent extraction of Ra combined with simple chemical separation, and by purging the scintillation solution with dry N 2 gas. The U- and Th-series together with the Ac-series were determined, respectively, from alpha spectra and TIA carried out immediately after Ra-extraction. Using the 221 Fr→ 217 At (T 1/2 32.3 ms) decay process as a tracer, overall yields were estimated from application of TIA to the 225 Ra (Np-decay series) at the time of maximum growth. The present method has proven useful for simultaneous determination of three radioactive decay series in environmental samples. (orig.)

  3. Dynamic analysis of policy drivers for bioenergy commodity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeffers, Robert F.; Jacobson, Jacob J.; Searcy, Erin M.

    2013-01-01

    Biomass is increasingly being considered as a feedstock to provide a clean and renewable source of energy in the form of both liquid fuels and electric power. In the United States, the biofuels and biopower industries are regulated by different policies and have different drivers, which impact the maximum price the industries are willing to pay for biomass. This article describes a dynamic computer simulation model that analyzes future behavior of bioenergy feedstock markets given policy and technical options. The model simulates the long-term dynamics of these markets by treating advanced biomass feedstocks as a commodity and projecting the total demand of each industry, as well as the market price over time. The model is used for an analysis of the United States bioenergy feedstock market that projects supply, demand, and market price given three independent buyers: domestic biopower, domestic biofuels, and foreign exports. With base-case assumptions, the biofuels industry is able to dominate the market and meet the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) targets for advanced biofuels. Further analyses suggest that United States bioenergy studies should include estimates of export demand in their projections, and that GHG-limiting policy would partially shield both industries from export dominance. - Highlights: ► We model a United States bioenergy feedstock commodity market. ► Three buyers compete for biomass: biopower, biofuels, and foreign exports. ► The presented methodology improves on dynamic economic equilibrium theory. ► With current policy incentives and ignoring exports, biofuels dominates the market. ► Overseas biomass demand could dominate unless a CO 2 -limiting policy is enacted.

  4. Time series analysis of wind speed using VAR and the generalized impulse response technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ewing, Bradley T. [Area of Information Systems and Quantitative Sciences, Rawls College of Business and Wind Science and Engineering Research Center, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409-2101 (United States); Kruse, Jamie Brown [Center for Natural Hazard Research, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC (United States); Schroeder, John L. [Department of Geosciences and Wind Science and Engineering Research Center, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX (United States); Smith, Douglas A. [Department of Civil Engineering and Wind Science and Engineering Research Center, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX (United States)

    2007-03-15

    This research examines the interdependence in time series wind speed data measured in the same location at four different heights. A multiple-equation system known as a vector autoregression is proposed for characterizing the time series dynamics of wind. Additionally, the recently developed method of generalized impulse response analysis provides insight into the cross-effects of the wind series and their responses to shocks. Findings are based on analysis of contemporaneous wind speed time histories taken at 13, 33, 70 and 160 ft above ground level with a sampling rate of 10 Hz. The results indicate that wind speeds measured at 70 ft was the most variable. Further, the turbulence persisted longer at the 70-ft measurement than at the other heights. The greatest interdependence is observed at 13 ft. Gusts at 160 ft led to the greatest persistence to an 'own' shock and led to greatest persistence in the responses of the other wind series. (author)

  5. Bioelectric signal classification using a recurrent probabilistic neural network with time-series discriminant component analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, Hideaki; Shima, Keisuke; Shibanoki, Taro; Kurita, Yuichi; Tsuji, Toshio

    2013-01-01

    This paper outlines a probabilistic neural network developed on the basis of time-series discriminant component analysis (TSDCA) that can be used to classify high-dimensional time-series patterns. TSDCA involves the compression of high-dimensional time series into a lower-dimensional space using a set of orthogonal transformations and the calculation of posterior probabilities based on a continuous-density hidden Markov model that incorporates a Gaussian mixture model expressed in the reduced-dimensional space. The analysis can be incorporated into a neural network so that parameters can be obtained appropriately as network coefficients according to backpropagation-through-time-based training algorithm. The network is considered to enable high-accuracy classification of high-dimensional time-series patterns and to reduce the computation time taken for network training. In the experiments conducted during the study, the validity of the proposed network was demonstrated for EEG signals.

  6. Analysis of product efficiency of hybrid vehicles and promotion policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Hyundo; Oh, Inha

    2010-01-01

    The key aim of this study is to evaluate the product efficiency of current hybrid vehicles and suggest effective policies to promote hybrid vehicles in the Korean automobile market and development trends of hybrid vehicles. The efficiency levels for car models sold in Korea, including hybrid ones, were measured using the recently developed discrete additive data envelopment analysis (DEA) model that reflects consumer preference. The result of the analysis shows that current hybrid vehicles on the market are still at lower competitive advantage than traditional car models with conventional combustion engines and we can suggest a mix of incentive policies to promote the competitiveness of hybrid vehicles. In addition, we also identify two distinctive trends of hybrid vehicle development: environment-oriented hybrid vehicles and performance-oriented hybrid vehicles. It implies that the government should take account of development trends of hybrid vehicles to achieve the policy goals in designing support schemes and automobile companies that are willing to develop hybrid vehicles can also gain some insights for making strategic decisions. (author)

  7. Fractal analysis and nonlinear forecasting of indoor 222Rn time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pausch, G.; Bossew, P.; Hofmann, W.; Steger, F.

    1998-01-01

    Fractal analyses of indoor 222 Rn time series were performed using different chaos theory based measurements such as time delay method, Hurst's rescaled range analysis, capacity (fractal) dimension, and Lyapunov exponent. For all time series we calculated only positive Lyapunov exponents which is a hint to chaos, while the Hurst exponents were well below 0.5, indicating antipersistent behaviour (past trends tend to reverse in the future). These time series were also analyzed with a nonlinear prediction method which allowed an estimation of the embedding dimensions with some restrictions, limiting the prediction to about three relative time steps. (orig.)

  8. Social Cost Benefit Analysis for Environmental Policy-Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Zeeuw, A.; In t Veld, R.; Van Soest, D.; Meuleman, L.; Hoogewoning, P.

    2008-01-01

    Review of the theoretical literature and the current debate on the valuation of environmental goods and services, on the discounting of future benefits and costs, and on how social cost benefit analysis (SCBAs) can be integrated in the policy and decision making process. It is concluded that SCBA can be a good decision support method in environmental policy-making if it is transparent and if all impacts are taken into account. Furthermore, the SCBA process should be participative, and politicians must be prepared to take responsibility for the assumptions behind the SCBA, including the assumptions on valuation and on the discount rate. Such a political role makes each SCBA a unique product of a politically responsible actor, and makes it possible for other stakeholders to have calculated an alternative SCBA based on their own assumptions. This Background Study also contains the proceedings of the international SCBA conference organised by RMNO on 16-17 January 2008

  9. CROSAT: A digital computer program for statistical-spectral analysis of two discrete time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonopoulos Domis, M.

    1978-03-01

    The program CROSAT computes directly from two discrete time series auto- and cross-spectra, transfer and coherence functions, using a Fast Fourier Transform subroutine. Statistical analysis of the time series is optional. While of general use the program is constructed to be immediately compatible with the ICL 4-70 and H316 computers at AEE Winfrith, and perhaps with minor modifications, with any other hardware system. (author)

  10. A Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model for Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, R. W.; Hill, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    Although integrated assessments of climate change policy have frequently identified nuclear energy as a promising alternative to fossil fuels, these studies have often treated nuclear waste disposal very simply. Simple assumptions about nuclear waste are problematic because they may not be adequate to capture relevant costs and uncertainties, which could result in suboptimal policy choices. Modeling nuclear waste management costs is a cross-disciplinary, multi-scale problem that involves economic, geologic and environmental processes that operate at vastly different temporal scales. Similarly, the climate-related costs and benefits of nuclear energy are dependent on environmental sensitivity to CO2 emissions and radiation, nuclear energy's ability to offset carbon emissions, and the risk of nuclear accidents, factors which are all deeply uncertain. Alternative value systems further complicate the problem by suggesting different approaches to valuing intergenerational impacts. Effective policy assessment of nuclear energy requires an integrated approach to modeling nuclear waste management that (1) bridges disciplinary and temporal gaps, (2) supports an iterative, adaptive process that responds to evolving understandings of uncertainties, and (3) supports a broad range of value systems. This work develops the Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model (NWMCM). NWMCM provides a flexible framework for evaluating the cost of nuclear waste management across a range of technology pathways and value systems. We illustrate how NWMCM can support policy analysis by estimating how different nuclear waste disposal scenarios developed using the NWMCM framework affect the results of a recent integrated assessment study of alternative energy futures and their effects on the cost of achieving carbon abatement targets. Results suggest that the optimism reflected in previous works is fragile: Plausible nuclear waste management costs and discount rates appropriate for intergenerational cost

  11. Truth and Credibility in Sincere Policy Analysis: Alternative Approaches for the Production of Policy-Relevant Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozeman, Barry; Landsbergen, David

    1989-01-01

    Two competing approaches to policy analysis are distinguished: a credibility approach, and a truth approach. According to the credibility approach, the policy analyst's role is to search for plausible argument rather than truth. Each approach has pragmatic tradeoffs in fulfilling the goal of providing usable knowledge to decision makers. (TJH)

  12. A Critical Policy Analysis of 'Teach for Bangladesh': A Travelling Policy Touches Down

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhikary, Rino Wiseman; Lingard, Bob

    2018-01-01

    This paper provides a critical policy analysis and network ethnography of "Teach for Bangladesh" ("TfB"). We demonstrate that TfB is a localised version of a global teacher education policy--"Teach for All/America" ("TfAll/A"). Santos, Boaventura De Sousa [2002. "The Processes of Globalisation."…

  13. An Interactive Analysis of Hyperboles in a British TV Series: Implications For EFL Classes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sert, Olcay

    2008-01-01

    This paper, part of an ongoing study on the analysis of hyperboles in a British TV series, reports findings drawing upon a 90,000 word corpus. The findings are compared to the ones from CANCODE (McCarthy and Carter 2004), a five-million word corpus of spontaneous speech, in order to identify similarities between the two. The analysis showed that…

  14. Social Analysis in Development Interventions: Policy Artefact or Constructive Transformation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUSANNA PRICE

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Recently attention has focused on the role of social researchers in the processes of construction and transmission of knowledge about global poverty and its reduction. This paper examines some of the formative efforts by pioneering social researchers in development institutions to step into the realm of policy making to construct processes for project preparation and management through social analysis. Before 1970 development planners invoked ‘social' or ‘human' factors only as an excuse to explain away project failures - they designed and implemented development projects in the absence of any strategies or regulatory frameworks for managing their social impacts. Recognizing that project investments represent induced change and constitute a social process in themselves, pioneering social researchers constructed policies and procedures to introduce sociological content and method into the project cycle and so re-order social outcomes. Were such constructs merely policy artefacts? Even as the constructs helped to shift the statements of the development discourse towards ‘people oriented' poverty reduction, new modalities appeared which tested the limits of the agreed methods. Institutions may forget, neglect, contest or re-write the documents if in perceived conflict with the institutional ‘core business'. Yet those pioneering efforts created institutional space for, and understanding of, social analysis, with a measure of flow-on international recognition. Tracking social analysis in several international institutions and in a significant emerging economy, China, this paper highlights not only a history full of lessons to be learned where social analysis is not practiced systematically but also outlines some future challenges.

  15. Using the Kaldor-Hicks Tableau Format for Cost-Benefit Analysis and Policy Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krutilla, Kerry

    2005-01-01

    This note describes the Kaldor-Hicks (KH) tableau format as a framework for distributional accounting in cost-benefit analysis and policy evaluation. The KH tableau format can serve as a heuristic aid for teaching microeconomics-based policy analysis, and offer insight to policy analysts and decisionmakers beyond conventional efficiency analysis.

  16. The Surveillance of Learning: A Critical Analysis of University Attendance Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macfarlane, Bruce

    2013-01-01

    Universities have recently strengthened their class attendance policies along with associated practices that intensify the surveillance of learning: a series of administrative and pedagogic strategies that monitor the extent to which students conform with behavioural expectations associated with learning. Drawing on university policy statements,…

  17. Planning, climate change, and transportation : thoughts on policy analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    Ideally, policy should be informed by social welfare analyses that carefully assess costs and benefits. In the context of : GHG policies, such analyses face particular challenges. The decades-long span of GHG policy-making will require introduction :...

  18. An Analysis of States' Policies Regarding Social Media Use in Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Janette K.

    2016-01-01

    This policy analysis project focused on states' policies regarding social media use in education. Currently, policies, practices and laws are not keeping pace with the rapidly changing nature of technology. As a result of the quick advancement of social media practices, the need exists for organic policies and practices within the educational…

  19. Current Practice in Research Ethics: Global Trends and New Opportunities for African Universities. Research and Innovation Policy Series. Number 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Liam

    2007-01-01

    Research Ethics has emerged as one of the most well-developed policy areas within the sphere of Research and Innovation Management. As such, for African institutions looking to strengthen their policy frameworks, develop increased collaborations, and increase research outputs, a thorough understanding of global trends in Ethics will be vital.…

  20. Policy Adoption of Forest Management Unit: A Knowledge Diffusion Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julijanti

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Within the policy adoption process of Forest Management Unit (FMU concept, there has been disagreement of stakeholders on FMUs concept. This disagreement is caused by the exchange of knowledge, information, and perception among stakeholders involved. The results of these interactions could speed up, slow down, and prevent the adoption process of FMU policy. The study objective was analyzing process of knowledge diffusion of FMUs development policy and stakeholders interaction in PFMU Batutegi and PFMU Kotaagung Utara, Indonesia. Adoption process was analyzed by the logical diffusion technique based on knowledge time of FMUs concept received and its interaction space. Social interaction among stakeholders was analyzed using method developed by International Development Studies analysis, i.e. interaction among discourse/narrative, actors/networks and politics/interests. The results showed that knowledge diffusion of FMUs concept in both PFMU tends to cascade diffusion. Factors was affecting of it process were network, role of opinion leaders, willingness to know, and understand on FMUs concept. Indicative strategy is needed as anticipating and overcoming an obstacle in its internalization process, i.e. harmonization of legislative and executive relationship, building an opinion the importance of FMU, and optimalizing network for bureaucratic problems.

  1. Cost benefit analysis of policy measures in the transport sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buus Kristensen, N [COWI (Denmark)

    1996-12-01

    The Government has introduced a national target for the reduction of CO{sub 2} emissions from the transport sector, which aims to stabilize emissions at the 1988 level, by the year 2005. This target was first formalized in the Government`s 1990 transport action plan, and later repeated in `Traffic 2005`, published in December 1993. The latter document also makes reference to six strategies, which the Government proposed in order to attain the national target. The majority of the transport policy measures will impact on CO{sub 2} emissions from the sector, even if they are targeted at different objectives, e.g. road safety, air pollution, time savings, etc. A long-list of potential measures, which might be adopted with the primary purpose is to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions, has been identified from the six overall strategies. The measures identified have been subjected to detailed analyses, to ascertain all the potential impacts. The main emphasis has been on clarifying the potential efficacy of each of the measures in reducing CO{sub 2} emissions, and the social costs in a wide sense. The analysis assumes that each policy measure is implemented separately. A methodology is developed that presents the respective consequences in commensurate terms. Similar calculations are undertaken for two different combinations of policy measures. (EG)

  2. A Markovian Entropy Measure for the Analysis of Calcium Activity Time Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marken, John P; Halleran, Andrew D; Rahman, Atiqur; Odorizzi, Laura; LeFew, Michael C; Golino, Caroline A; Kemper, Peter; Saha, Margaret S

    2016-01-01

    Methods to analyze the dynamics of calcium activity often rely on visually distinguishable features in time series data such as spikes, waves, or oscillations. However, systems such as the developing nervous system display a complex, irregular type of calcium activity which makes the use of such methods less appropriate. Instead, for such systems there exists a class of methods (including information theoretic, power spectral, and fractal analysis approaches) which use more fundamental properties of the time series to analyze the observed calcium dynamics. We present a new analysis method in this class, the Markovian Entropy measure, which is an easily implementable calcium time series analysis method which represents the observed calcium activity as a realization of a Markov Process and describes its dynamics in terms of the level of predictability underlying the transitions between the states of the process. We applied our and other commonly used calcium analysis methods on a dataset from Xenopus laevis neural progenitors which displays irregular calcium activity and a dataset from murine synaptic neurons which displays activity time series that are well-described by visually-distinguishable features. We find that the Markovian Entropy measure is able to distinguish between biologically distinct populations in both datasets, and that it can separate biologically distinct populations to a greater extent than other methods in the dataset exhibiting irregular calcium activity. These results support the benefit of using the Markovian Entropy measure to analyze calcium dynamics, particularly for studies using time series data which do not exhibit easily distinguishable features.

  3. A Markovian Entropy Measure for the Analysis of Calcium Activity Time Series.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John P Marken

    Full Text Available Methods to analyze the dynamics of calcium activity often rely on visually distinguishable features in time series data such as spikes, waves, or oscillations. However, systems such as the developing nervous system display a complex, irregular type of calcium activity which makes the use of such methods less appropriate. Instead, for such systems there exists a class of methods (including information theoretic, power spectral, and fractal analysis approaches which use more fundamental properties of the time series to analyze the observed calcium dynamics. We present a new analysis method in this class, the Markovian Entropy measure, which is an easily implementable calcium time series analysis method which represents the observed calcium activity as a realization of a Markov Process and describes its dynamics in terms of the level of predictability underlying the transitions between the states of the process. We applied our and other commonly used calcium analysis methods on a dataset from Xenopus laevis neural progenitors which displays irregular calcium activity and a dataset from murine synaptic neurons which displays activity time series that are well-described by visually-distinguishable features. We find that the Markovian Entropy measure is able to distinguish between biologically distinct populations in both datasets, and that it can separate biologically distinct populations to a greater extent than other methods in the dataset exhibiting irregular calcium activity. These results support the benefit of using the Markovian Entropy measure to analyze calcium dynamics, particularly for studies using time series data which do not exhibit easily distinguishable features.

  4. Physical inactivity as a policy problem: applying a concept from policy analysis to a public health issue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rütten, Alfred; Abu-Omar, Karim; Gelius, Peter; Schow, Diana

    2013-03-07

    Despite the recent rapid development of policies to counteract physical inactivity (PI), only a small number of systematic analyses on the evolution of these policies exists. In this article we analyze how PI, as a public health issue, "translates" into a policy-making issue. First, we discuss why PI has become an increasingly important public health issue during the last two decades. We then follow Guy Peters and conceptualize PI as a "policy problem" that has the potential to be linked to policy instruments and policy impact. Analysis indicates that PI is a policy problem that i) is chronic in nature; ii) involves a high degree of political complexity; iii) can be disaggregated into smaller scales; iv) is addressed through interventions that can be difficult to "sell" to the public when their benefits are not highly divisible; v) cannot be solved by government spending alone; vi) must be addressed through a broad scope of activities; and vii) involves interdependencies among both multiple sectors and levels of government.We conclude that the new perspective on PI proposed in this article might be useful and important for i) describing and mapping policies to counteract PI in different contexts; ii) evaluating whether or not existing policy instruments are appropriate to the policy problem of PI, and iii) explaining the factors and processes that underlie policy development and implementation. More research is warranted in all these areas. In particular, we propose to focus on comparative analyses of how the problem of PI is defined and tackled in different contexts, and on the identification of truly effective policy instruments that are designed to "solve" the PI policy problem.

  5. [Policy analysis: study of public policy of environmental health in a metropolis of northeastern Brazil].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyra, Tereza Maciel; Araújo Júnior, José Luiz do Amaral Correa de

    2014-09-01

    The analysis of health policies has improved in Brazil despite a plethora of different methodological approaches. Based on the model developed by Walt and Gilson in 1994, the Environmental Health Program (EHP) of Recife as a policy based on the Health Promotion principles of the Unified Health System (SUS) and Agenda 21 was analyzed. An attempt was made to understand the context during the development and implementation of the EHP, the drafting process and which actors influenced the EHP agenda content and proposal. A qualitative case study was conducted, with semi-structured interviews with key actors. In terms of context, the findings include the influence of the municipal election, the socio-sanitary characteristics of Recife, the choice of the Secretary of Health and the management teams, acceptance by the technicians and the funding increase. In terms of the process, the acceptance of the managers must be stressed. Regarding the actors, the managers, sector technicians, non-sectorial actors with viability studies stood out. The content of the EHP coincided with the SUS and Health Promotion principles. Implementation was influenced by the dengue fever epidemic (2002), and cultural institutional factors that put pressure on the order of implementation of the planned actions.

  6. Building-integrated renewable energy policy analysis in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    姚春妮; 郝斌

    2009-01-01

    With the dramatic development of renewable energy all over the world,and for purpose of adjusting energy structure,the Ministry of Construction of China plans to promote the large scale application of renewable energy in buildings. In order to ensure the validity of policy-making,this work firstly exerts a method to do cost-benefit analysis for three kinds of technologies such as building-integrated solar hot water (BISHW) system,building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) technology and ground water heat pump (GWHP). Through selecting a representative city of every climate region,the analysis comes into different results for different climate regions in China and respectively different suggestion for policy-making. On the analysis basis,the Ministry of Construction (MOC) and the Ministry of Finance of China (MOF) united to start-up Building-integrated Renewable Energy Demonstration Projects (BIREDP) in 2006. In the demonstration projects,renewable energy takes place of traditional energy to supply the domestic hot water,electricity,air-conditioning and heating. Through carrying out the demonstration projects,renewable energy related market has been expanded. More and more relative companies and local governments take the opportunity to promote the large scale application of renewable energy in buildings.

  7. ESTIMATING RELIABILITY OF DISTURBANCES IN SATELLITE TIME SERIES DATA BASED ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z.-G. Zhou

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Normally, the status of land cover is inherently dynamic and changing continuously on temporal scale. However, disturbances or abnormal changes of land cover — caused by such as forest fire, flood, deforestation, and plant diseases — occur worldwide at unknown times and locations. Timely detection and characterization of these disturbances is of importance for land cover monitoring. Recently, many time-series-analysis methods have been developed for near real-time or online disturbance detection, using satellite image time series. However, the detection results were only labelled with “Change/ No change” by most of the present methods, while few methods focus on estimating reliability (or confidence level of the detected disturbances in image time series. To this end, this paper propose a statistical analysis method for estimating reliability of disturbances in new available remote sensing image time series, through analysis of full temporal information laid in time series data. The method consists of three main steps. (1 Segmenting and modelling of historical time series data based on Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST. (2 Forecasting and detecting disturbances in new time series data. (3 Estimating reliability of each detected disturbance using statistical analysis based on Confidence Interval (CI and Confidence Levels (CL. The method was validated by estimating reliability of disturbance regions caused by a recent severe flooding occurred around the border of Russia and China. Results demonstrated that the method can estimate reliability of disturbances detected in satellite image with estimation error less than 5% and overall accuracy up to 90%.

  8. Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhaila, Jamaludin; Yusop, Zulkifli

    2017-06-01

    Most of the trend analysis that has been conducted has not considered the existence of a change point in the time series analysis. If these occurred, then the trend analysis will not be able to detect an obvious increasing or decreasing trend over certain parts of the time series. Furthermore, the lack of discussion on the possible factors that influenced either the decreasing or the increasing trend in the series needs to be addressed in any trend analysis. Hence, this study proposes to investigate the trends, and change point detection of mean, maximum and minimum temperature series, both annually and seasonally in Peninsular Malaysia and determine the possible factors that could contribute to the significance trends. In this study, Pettitt and sequential Mann-Kendall (SQ-MK) tests were used to examine the occurrence of any abrupt climate changes in the independent series. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature series suggested that most of the change points in Peninsular Malaysia were detected during the years 1996, 1997 and 1998. These detection points captured by Pettitt and SQ-MK tests are possibly related to climatic factors, such as El Niño and La Niña events. The findings also showed that the majority of the significant change points that exist in the series are related to the significant trend of the stations. Significant increasing trends of annual and seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures in Peninsular Malaysia were found with a range of 2-5 °C/100 years during the last 32 years. It was observed that the magnitudes of the increasing trend in minimum temperatures were larger than the maximum temperatures for most of the studied stations, particularly at the urban stations. These increases are suspected to be linked with the effect of urban heat island other than El Niño event.

  9. Resolution about the second strategic analysis on energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    The French National Assembly has adopted a resolution concerning the European Commission's second strategic analysis on energy policy. The resolution makes acknowledgment of the strategic orientations proposed by the European Commission; however the necessity is emphasized to take into consideration the january 2009 gas crisis experience and therefore to ensure a better diversification of the gas supply to Western Europe. It also considers that a higher impulse (indeed with constraint) is to be given to renewable energy development in order to be able to meet the 2020 target of a 20 percent increase in energy efficiency in the EU

  10. Multivariate stochastic analysis for Monthly hydrological time series at Cuyahoga River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    zhang, L.

    2011-12-01

    Copula has become a very powerful statistic and stochastic methodology in case of the multivariate analysis in Environmental and Water resources Engineering. In recent years, the popular one-parameter Archimedean copulas, e.g. Gumbel-Houggard copula, Cook-Johnson copula, Frank copula, the meta-elliptical copula, e.g. Gaussian Copula, Student-T copula, etc. have been applied in multivariate hydrological analyses, e.g. multivariate rainfall (rainfall intensity, duration and depth), flood (peak discharge, duration and volume), and drought analyses (drought length, mean and minimum SPI values, and drought mean areal extent). Copula has also been applied in the flood frequency analysis at the confluences of river systems by taking into account the dependence among upstream gauge stations rather than by using the hydrological routing technique. In most of the studies above, the annual time series have been considered as stationary signal which the time series have been assumed as independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables. But in reality, hydrological time series, especially the daily and monthly hydrological time series, cannot be considered as i.i.d. random variables due to the periodicity existed in the data structure. Also, the stationary assumption is also under question due to the Climate Change and Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change in the fast years. To this end, it is necessary to revaluate the classic approach for the study of hydrological time series by relaxing the stationary assumption by the use of nonstationary approach. Also as to the study of the dependence structure for the hydrological time series, the assumption of same type of univariate distribution also needs to be relaxed by adopting the copula theory. In this paper, the univariate monthly hydrological time series will be studied through the nonstationary time series analysis approach. The dependence structure of the multivariate monthly hydrological time series will be

  11. Phase synchronization based minimum spanning trees for analysis of financial time series with nonlinear correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radhakrishnan, Srinivasan; Duvvuru, Arjun; Sultornsanee, Sivarit; Kamarthi, Sagar

    2016-02-01

    The cross correlation coefficient has been widely applied in financial time series analysis, in specific, for understanding chaotic behaviour in terms of stock price and index movements during crisis periods. To better understand time series correlation dynamics, the cross correlation matrices are represented as networks, in which a node stands for an individual time series and a link indicates cross correlation between a pair of nodes. These networks are converted into simpler trees using different schemes. In this context, Minimum Spanning Trees (MST) are the most favoured tree structures because of their ability to preserve all the nodes and thereby retain essential information imbued in the network. Although cross correlations underlying MSTs capture essential information, they do not faithfully capture dynamic behaviour embedded in the time series data of financial systems because cross correlation is a reliable measure only if the relationship between the time series is linear. To address the issue, this work investigates a new measure called phase synchronization (PS) for establishing correlations among different time series which relate to one another, linearly or nonlinearly. In this approach the strength of a link between a pair of time series (nodes) is determined by the level of phase synchronization between them. We compare the performance of phase synchronization based MST with cross correlation based MST along selected network measures across temporal frame that includes economically good and crisis periods. We observe agreement in the directionality of the results across these two methods. They show similar trends, upward or downward, when comparing selected network measures. Though both the methods give similar trends, the phase synchronization based MST is a more reliable representation of the dynamic behaviour of financial systems than the cross correlation based MST because of the former's ability to quantify nonlinear relationships among time

  12. Multiculturalism as an Educational Policy. ESA 842, Policy Development and Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizvi, Fazal

    The monograph that begins this volume analyzes multiculturalism as an educational policy in order to identify the broader values and interests that are served by its promotion. It begins with a historical review of Australia's post-World-War-II immigration policies. In the next two sections, the major elements of the policy of assimilation, a…

  13. Time Series Data Analysis of Wireless Sensor Network Measurements of Temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhandari, Siddhartha; Bergmann, Neil; Jurdak, Raja; Kusy, Branislav

    2017-05-26

    Wireless sensor networks have gained significant traction in environmental signal monitoring and analysis. The cost or lifetime of the system typically depends on the frequency at which environmental phenomena are monitored. If sampling rates are reduced, energy is saved. Using empirical datasets collected from environmental monitoring sensor networks, this work performs time series analyses of measured temperature time series. Unlike previous works which have concentrated on suppressing the transmission of some data samples by time-series analysis but still maintaining high sampling rates, this work investigates reducing the sampling rate (and sensor wake up rate) and looks at the effects on accuracy. Results show that the sampling period of the sensor can be increased up to one hour while still allowing intermediate and future states to be estimated with interpolation RMSE less than 0.2 °C and forecasting RMSE less than 1 °C.

  14. Multi-complexity ensemble measures for gait time series analysis: application to diagnostics, monitoring and biometrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrishchaka, Valeriy; Senyukova, Olga; Davis, Kristina

    2015-01-01

    Previously, we have proposed to use complementary complexity measures discovered by boosting-like ensemble learning for the enhancement of quantitative indicators dealing with necessarily short physiological time series. We have confirmed robustness of such multi-complexity measures for heart rate variability analysis with the emphasis on detection of emerging and intermittent cardiac abnormalities. Recently, we presented preliminary results suggesting that such ensemble-based approach could be also effective in discovering universal meta-indicators for early detection and convenient monitoring of neurological abnormalities using gait time series. Here, we argue and demonstrate that these multi-complexity ensemble measures for gait time series analysis could have significantly wider application scope ranging from diagnostics and early detection of physiological regime change to gait-based biometrics applications.

  15. An integrated economic and distributional analysis of energy policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labandeira, Xavier; Labeaga, Jose M.; Rodriguez, Miguel

    2009-01-01

    Most public policies, particularly those in the energy sphere, have not only efficiency but also distributional effects. However, there is a trade-off between modelling approaches suitable for calculating those impacts on the economy. For the former most of the studies have been conducted with general equilibrium models, whereas partial equilibrium models represent the main approach for distributional analysis. This paper proposes a methodology to simultaneously carry out an analysis of the distributional and efficiency consequences of changes in energy taxation. In order to do so, we have integrated a microeconomic household demand model and a computable general equilibrium model for the Spanish economy. We illustrate the advantages of this approach by simulating a revenue-neutral reform in Spanish indirect taxation, with a large increase of energy taxes that serve an environmental purpose. The results show that the reforms bring about significant efficiency and distributional effects, in some cases counterintuitive, and demonstrate the academic and social utility of this approximation. (author)

  16. Risk analysis and priority setting for environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1991-01-01

    There is a growing realization that the demand for funding to correct our nation's environmental problems will soon outstrip available resources. In the hazardous waste area alone, the estimated cost of remediating Superfund sites ranges from $32 billion to $80 billion. Numerous other areas of competing for these same financial resources. These include ozone depletion, global warming, the protection of endangered species and wetlands, toxic air pollution, carcinogenic pesticides, and urban smog. In response to this imbalance in the supply and demand for national funds, several political constituencies are calling for the use of risk assessment as a tool in the prioritization of research and budget needs. Comparative risk analysis offers a logical framework in which to organize information about complex environmental problems. Risk analysis allows policy analysts to make resource allocation decisions on the basis of scientific judgement rather than political expediency

  17. An integrated economic and distributional analysis of energy policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Labandeira, Xavier [Facultade de CC. Economicas, University of Vigo, 36310 Vigo (Spain); Labeaga, Jose M. [Instituto de Estudios Fiscales, Avda. Cardenal Herrera Oria 378, 28035 Madrid (Spain); Rodriguez, Miguel [Facultade de CC. Empresariais e Turismo, University of Vigo, 32004 Ourense (Spain)

    2009-12-15

    Most public policies, particularly those in the energy sphere, have not only efficiency but also distributional effects. However, there is a trade-off between modelling approaches suitable for calculating those impacts on the economy. For the former most of the studies have been conducted with general equilibrium models, whereas partial equilibrium models represent the main approach for distributional analysis. This paper proposes a methodology to simultaneously carry out an analysis of the distributional and efficiency consequences of changes in energy taxation. In order to do so, we have integrated a microeconomic household demand model and a computable general equilibrium model for the Spanish economy. We illustrate the advantages of this approach by simulating a revenue-neutral reform in Spanish indirect taxation, with a large increase of energy taxes that serve an environmental purpose. The results show that the reforms bring about significant efficiency and distributional effects, in some cases counterintuitive, and demonstrate the academic and social utility of this approximation. (author)

  18. Health and Juvenile Delinquency: Prescriptive Policy. Analysis As a Practical Art.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flentje, H. Edward; Penner, Maurice J.

    A case history of the development of a new Kansas state policy on juvenile delinquency illustrates the use of policy impact analysis and suggests four principles to follow in prescriptive policy analysis. A Kansas governor's task force on juvenile delinquency found evidence linking delinquency to undetected health problems (in sight, hearing,…

  19. Harmonic Analysis of a Nonstationary Series of Temperature Paleoreconstruction for the Central Part of Greenland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.E. Danova

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The results of the investigations of a transformed series of reconstructed air temperature data for the central part of Greenland with an increment of 30 years have been presented. Stationarization of a ~ 50,000-years’ series of the reconstructed air temperature in the central part of Greenland according to ice core data has been performed using mathematical expectation. To obtain mathematical expectation estimation, the smoothing procedure by the methods of moving average and wavelet analysis has been carried out. Fourier’s transformation has been applied repeatedly to the stationarized series with changing the averaging time in the process of smoothing. Three averaging time values have been selected for the investigations: ~ 400–500 years, ~ 2,000 years, and ~ 4,000 years. Stationarization of the reconstructed temperature series with the help of wavelet transformation showed the best results when applying the averaging time of ~ 400 and ~ 2000 years, the trends well characterize the initial temperature series, there-by revealing the main patterns of its dynamics. Using the period with the averaging time of ~ 4,000 years showed the worst result: significant events of the main temperature series were lost in the process of averaging. The obtained results well correspond to cycling known to be inherent to the climatic system of the planet; the detected modes of 1,470 ± 500 years are comparable to the Dansgaard–Oeschger and Bond oscillations.

  20. Properties of Asymmetric Detrended Fluctuation Analysis in the time series of RR intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piskorski, J.; Kosmider, M.; Mieszkowski, D.; Krauze, T.; Wykretowicz, A.; Guzik, P.

    2018-02-01

    Heart rate asymmetry is a phenomenon by which the accelerations and decelerations of heart rate behave differently, and this difference is consistent and unidirectional, i.e. in most of the analyzed recordings the inequalities have the same directions. So far, it has been established for variance and runs based types of descriptors of RR intervals time series. In this paper we apply the newly developed method of Asymmetric Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, which so far has mainly been used with economic time series, to the set of 420 stationary 30 min time series of RR intervals from young, healthy individuals aged between 20 and 40. This asymmetric approach introduces separate scaling exponents for rising and falling trends. We systematically study the presence of asymmetry in both global and local versions of this method. In this study global means "applying to the whole time series" and local means "applying to windows jumping along the recording". It is found that the correlation structure of the fluctuations left over after detrending in physiological time series shows strong asymmetric features in both magnitude, with α+ physiological data after shuffling or with a group of symmetric synthetic time series.

  1. The application of complex network time series analysis in turbulent heated jets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charakopoulos, A. K.; Karakasidis, T. E.; Liakopoulos, A.; Papanicolaou, P. N.

    2014-01-01

    In the present study, we applied the methodology of the complex network-based time series analysis to experimental temperature time series from a vertical turbulent heated jet. More specifically, we approach the hydrodynamic problem of discriminating time series corresponding to various regions relative to the jet axis, i.e., time series corresponding to regions that are close to the jet axis from time series originating at regions with a different dynamical regime based on the constructed network properties. Applying the transformation phase space method (k nearest neighbors) and also the visibility algorithm, we transformed time series into networks and evaluated the topological properties of the networks such as degree distribution, average path length, diameter, modularity, and clustering coefficient. The results show that the complex network approach allows distinguishing, identifying, and exploring in detail various dynamical regions of the jet flow, and associate it to the corresponding physical behavior. In addition, in order to reject the hypothesis that the studied networks originate from a stochastic process, we generated random network and we compared their statistical properties with that originating from the experimental data. As far as the efficiency of the two methods for network construction is concerned, we conclude that both methodologies lead to network properties that present almost the same qualitative behavior and allow us to reveal the underlying system dynamics

  2. Statistical attribution analysis of the nonstationarity of the annual runoff series of the Weihe River.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Lihua; Jiang, Cong; Du, Tao

    2014-01-01

    Time-varying moments models based on Pearson Type III and normal distributions respectively are built under the generalized additive model in location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) framework to analyze the nonstationarity of the annual runoff series of the Weihe River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River. The detection of nonstationarities in hydrological time series (annual runoff, precipitation and temperature) from 1960 to 2009 is carried out using a GAMLSS model, and then the covariate analysis for the annual runoff series is implemented with GAMLSS. Finally, the attribution of each covariate to the nonstationarity of annual runoff is analyzed quantitatively. The results demonstrate that (1) obvious change-points exist in all three hydrological series, (2) precipitation, temperature and irrigated area are all significant covariates of the annual runoff series, and (3) temperature increase plays the main role in leading to the reduction of the annual runoff series in the study basin, followed by the decrease of precipitation and the increase of irrigated area.

  3. Studying and evaluating pharmaceutical policy--becoming a part of the policy and consultative process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Almarsdóttir, Anna Birna; Traulsen, Janine Marie

    2006-01-01

    In this last article in the series the authors focus on the issue of researching and evaluating pharmaceutical policy. The past five articles made an argument for why pharmaceutical policy is important and why it is different from health policy. The evidence base needed for pharmaceutical policym...... culture around pharmaceutical policy. They emphasize the importance of pharmaceutical specialists' (i.e., pharmacists') involvement in pharmaceutical policy analysis and the policy consultative process....

  4. On statistical inference in time series analysis of the evolution of road safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Commandeur, Jacques J F; Bijleveld, Frits D; Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George; Papadimitriou, Eleonora

    2013-11-01

    Data collected for building a road safety observatory usually include observations made sequentially through time. Examples of such data, called time series data, include annual (or monthly) number of road traffic accidents, traffic fatalities or vehicle kilometers driven in a country, as well as the corresponding values of safety performance indicators (e.g., data on speeding, seat belt use, alcohol use, etc.). Some commonly used statistical techniques imply assumptions that are often violated by the special properties of time series data, namely serial dependency among disturbances associated with the observations. The first objective of this paper is to demonstrate the impact of such violations to the applicability of standard methods of statistical inference, which leads to an under or overestimation of the standard error and consequently may produce erroneous inferences. Moreover, having established the adverse consequences of ignoring serial dependency issues, the paper aims to describe rigorous statistical techniques used to overcome them. In particular, appropriate time series analysis techniques of varying complexity are employed to describe the development over time, relating the accident-occurrences to explanatory factors such as exposure measures or safety performance indicators, and forecasting the development into the near future. Traditional regression models (whether they are linear, generalized linear or nonlinear) are shown not to naturally capture the inherent dependencies in time series data. Dedicated time series analysis techniques, such as the ARMA-type and DRAG approaches are discussed next, followed by structural time series models, which are a subclass of state space methods. The paper concludes with general recommendations and practice guidelines for the use of time series models in road safety research. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. A Filtering of Incomplete GNSS Position Time Series with Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruszczynski, Maciej; Klos, Anna; Bogusz, Janusz

    2018-04-01

    For the first time, we introduced the probabilistic principal component analysis (pPCA) regarding the spatio-temporal filtering of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time series to estimate and remove Common Mode Error (CME) without the interpolation of missing values. We used data from the International GNSS Service (IGS) stations which contributed to the latest International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF2014). The efficiency of the proposed algorithm was tested on the simulated incomplete time series, then CME was estimated for a set of 25 stations located in Central Europe. The newly applied pPCA was compared with previously used algorithms, which showed that this method is capable of resolving the problem of proper spatio-temporal filtering of GNSS time series characterized by different observation time span. We showed, that filtering can be carried out with pPCA method when there exist two time series in the dataset having less than 100 common epoch of observations. The 1st Principal Component (PC) explained more than 36% of the total variance represented by time series residuals' (series with deterministic model removed), what compared to the other PCs variances (less than 8%) means that common signals are significant in GNSS residuals. A clear improvement in the spectral indices of the power-law noise was noticed for the Up component, which is reflected by an average shift towards white noise from - 0.98 to - 0.67 (30%). We observed a significant average reduction in the accuracy of stations' velocity estimated for filtered residuals by 35, 28 and 69% for the North, East, and Up components, respectively. CME series were also subjected to analysis in the context of environmental mass loading influences of the filtering results. Subtraction of the environmental loading models from GNSS residuals provides to reduction of the estimated CME variance by 20 and 65% for horizontal and vertical components, respectively.

  6. A Recurrent Probabilistic Neural Network with Dimensionality Reduction Based on Time-series Discriminant Component Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, Hideaki; Shibanoki, Taro; Shima, Keisuke; Kurita, Yuichi; Tsuji, Toshio

    2015-12-01

    This paper proposes a probabilistic neural network (NN) developed on the basis of time-series discriminant component analysis (TSDCA) that can be used to classify high-dimensional time-series patterns. TSDCA involves the compression of high-dimensional time series into a lower dimensional space using a set of orthogonal transformations and the calculation of posterior probabilities based on a continuous-density hidden Markov model with a Gaussian mixture model expressed in the reduced-dimensional space. The analysis can be incorporated into an NN, which is named a time-series discriminant component network (TSDCN), so that parameters of dimensionality reduction and classification can be obtained simultaneously as network coefficients according to a backpropagation through time-based learning algorithm with the Lagrange multiplier method. The TSDCN is considered to enable high-accuracy classification of high-dimensional time-series patterns and to reduce the computation time taken for network training. The validity of the TSDCN is demonstrated for high-dimensional artificial data and electroencephalogram signals in the experiments conducted during the study.

  7. Regression and regression analysis time series prediction modeling on climate data of quetta, pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jafri, Y.Z.; Kamal, L.

    2007-01-01

    Various statistical techniques was used on five-year data from 1998-2002 of average humidity, rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The relationships to regression analysis time series (RATS) were developed for determining the overall trend of these climate parameters on the basis of which forecast models can be corrected and modified. We computed the coefficient of determination as a measure of goodness of fit, to our polynomial regression analysis time series (PRATS). The correlation to multiple linear regression (MLR) and multiple linear regression analysis time series (MLRATS) were also developed for deciphering the interdependence of weather parameters. Spearman's rand correlation and Goldfeld-Quandt test were used to check the uniformity or non-uniformity of variances in our fit to polynomial regression (PR). The Breusch-Pagan test was applied to MLR and MLRATS, respectively which yielded homoscedasticity. We also employed Bartlett's test for homogeneity of variances on a five-year data of rainfall and humidity, respectively which showed that the variances in rainfall data were not homogenous while in case of humidity, were homogenous. Our results on regression and regression analysis time series show the best fit to prediction modeling on climatic data of Quetta, Pakistan. (author)

  8. Bayesian near-boundary analysis in basic macroeconomic time series models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.D. de Pooter (Michiel); F. Ravazzolo (Francesco); R. Segers (René); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractSeveral lessons learnt from a Bayesian analysis of basic macroeconomic time series models are presented for the situation where some model parameters have substantial posterior probability near the boundary of the parameter region. This feature refers to near-instability within dynamic

  9. A Comparison of Missing-Data Procedures for Arima Time-Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velicer, Wayne F.; Colby, Suzanne M.

    2005-01-01

    Missing data are a common practical problem for longitudinal designs. Time-series analysis is a longitudinal method that involves a large number of observations on a single unit. Four different missing-data methods (deletion, mean substitution, mean of adjacent observations, and maximum likelihood estimation) were evaluated. Computer-generated…

  10. Using trajectory sensitivity analysis to find suitable locations of series compensators for improving rotor angle stability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nasri, Amin; Eriksson, Robert; Ghandhar, Mehrdad

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes an approach based on trajectory sensitivity analysis (TSA) to find most suitable placement of series compensators in the power system. The main objective is to maximize the benefit of these devices in order to enhance the rotor angle stability. This approach is formulated...

  11. Detrended partial cross-correlation analysis of two nonstationary time series influenced by common external forces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Xi-Yuan; Liu, Ya-Min; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Podobnik, Boris; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2015-06-01

    When common factors strongly influence two power-law cross-correlated time series recorded in complex natural or social systems, using detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) without considering these common factors will bias the results. We use detrended partial cross-correlation analysis (DPXA) to uncover the intrinsic power-law cross correlations between two simultaneously recorded time series in the presence of nonstationarity after removing the effects of other time series acting as common forces. The DPXA method is a generalization of the detrended cross-correlation analysis that takes into account partial correlation analysis. We demonstrate the method by using bivariate fractional Brownian motions contaminated with a fractional Brownian motion. We find that the DPXA is able to recover the analytical cross Hurst indices, and thus the multiscale DPXA coefficients are a viable alternative to the conventional cross-correlation coefficient. We demonstrate the advantage of the DPXA coefficients over the DCCA coefficients by analyzing contaminated bivariate fractional Brownian motions. We calculate the DPXA coefficients and use them to extract the intrinsic cross correlation between crude oil and gold futures by taking into consideration the impact of the U.S. dollar index. We develop the multifractal DPXA (MF-DPXA) method in order to generalize the DPXA method and investigate multifractal time series. We analyze multifractal binomial measures masked with strong white noises and find that the MF-DPXA method quantifies the hidden multifractal nature while the multifractal DCCA method fails.

  12. Operation States Analysis of the Series-Parallel resonant Converter Working Above Resonance Frequency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Dzurko

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Operation states analysis of a series-parallel converter working above resonance frequency is described in the paper. Principal equations are derived for individual operation states. On the basis of them the diagrams are made out. The diagrams give the complex image of the converter behaviour for individual circuit parameters. The waveforms may be utilised at designing the inverter individual parts.

  13. AAMFT Master Series Tapes: An Analysis of the Inclusion of Feminist Principles into Family Therapy Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddock, Shelley A.; MacPhee, David; Zimmerman, Toni Schindler

    2001-01-01

    Content analysis of 23 American Association for Marriage and Family Therapy Master Series tapes was used to determine how well feminist behaviors have been incorporated into ideal family therapy practice. Feminist behaviors were infrequent, being evident in fewer than 3% of time blocks in event sampling and 10 of 39 feminist behaviors of the…

  14. Dynamic factor analysis in the frequency domain: causal modeling of multivariate psychophysiological time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Molenaar, P.C.M.

    1987-01-01

    Outlines a frequency domain analysis of the dynamic factor model and proposes a solution to the problem of constructing a causal filter of lagged factor loadings. The method is illustrated with applications to simulated and real multivariate time series. The latter applications involve topographic

  15. Harmonic analysis of dense time series of landsat imagery for modeling change in forest conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry Tyler. Wilson

    2015-01-01

    This study examined the utility of dense time series of Landsat imagery for small area estimation and mapping of change in forest conditions over time. The study area was a region in north central Wisconsin for which Landsat 7 ETM+ imagery and field measurements from the Forest Inventory and Analysis program are available for the decade of 2003 to 2012. For the periods...

  16. Economic Conditions and the Divorce Rate: A Time-Series Analysis of the Postwar United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    South, Scott J.

    1985-01-01

    Challenges the belief that the divorce rate rises during prosperity and falls during economic recessions. Time-series regression analysis of postwar United States reveals small but positive effects of unemployment on divorce rate. Stronger influences on divorce rates are changes in age structure and labor-force participation rate of women.…

  17. Operation Analysis of the Series-Parallel Resonant Converter Working above Resonance Frequency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Dzurko

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The present article deals with theoretical analysis of operation of a series-parallel converter working above resonance frequency. Derived are principal equations for individual operation intervals. Based on these made out are waveforms of individual quantities during both the inverter operation at load and no-load operation. The waveforms may be utilised at designing the inverter individual parts.

  18. Green electricity policy in the Netherlands. An analysis of policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rooijen, Sascha van; Wees, Mark van

    2003-01-01

    Over the last decades, fundamental changes in both market conditions and the national and international policy framework in the Netherlands can be observed. The Dutch Government has intervened in markets regularly, demonstrating fundamental shifts in policy and approach. This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in the Netherlands. It assesses changes in the choice of policy instruments and target groups, the role of stakeholders and offers explanations behind policy successes and failures. The following conclusions can be drawn on the policy choices: First, the objectives and targets of Dutch renewable energy policy were frequently ambiguous. Although the government emphasised the importance of investments in local capacity, imports were always (implicitly) seen as an alternative option in meeting targets. Second, for a long period the government focused on reducing investment costs and dismantling administrative barriers. Only recently has the lack of a stable investment climate been identified as a potential barrier. Third, although many stakeholders have advocated a mandatory approach, Dutch policies stimulating renewable energy have always been voluntary. Finally, the Ministry of Economic Affairs has always played a very dominant role in renewable energy policy formulation and implementation, which may explain the fact that some unfavourable market reactions to policies have not been foreseen. (author)

  19. Integrated environmental policy: A review of economic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiesmeth, Hans; Häckl, Dennis

    2017-04-01

    Holistic environmental policies, which emerged from a mere combination of technical activities in waste management some 40 years ago, constitute the most advanced level of environmental policies. These approaches to environmental policy, among them the policies in integrated waste management, attempt to guide economic agents to an environment-friendly behaviour. Nevertheless, current holistic policies in waste management, including policies on one-way drinks containers and waste electrical and electronic equipment, and implementations of extended producer responsibility with further applications to waste electrical and electronic equipment, reveal more or less severe deficiencies - despite some positive examples. This article relates these policy failures, which are not necessarily the result of an insufficient compliance with the regulations, to missing constitutive elements of what is going to be called an 'integrated environmental policy'. This article therefore investigates - mostly from a practical point of view - constitutive elements, which are necessary for a holistic policy to serve as a well-functioning allocation mechanism. As these constitutive elements result from a careful 'integration' of the environmental commodities into the economic allocation problems, we refer to these policies as 'integrated environmental policies'. The article also discusses and illustrates the main steps of designing such a policy - for waste electrical and electronic equipment and a (possible) ban of Glyphosat in agriculture. As these policies are dependent on economic and political stability with environmental awareness sufficiently developed, the article addresses mostly waste management policies in highly industrialised countries.

  20. Analysis of Retransmission Policies for Parallel Data Transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Halepoto

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Stream control transmission protocol (SCTP is a transport layer protocol, which is efficient, reliable, and connection-oriented as compared to transmission control protocol (TCP and user datagram protocol (UDP. Additionally, SCTP has more innovative features like multihoming, multistreaming and unordered delivery. With multihoming, SCTP establishes multiple paths between a sender and receiver. However, it only uses the primary path for data transmission and the secondary path (or paths for fault tolerance. Concurrent multipath transfer extension of SCTP (CMT-SCTP allows a sender to transmit data in parallel over multiple paths, which increases the overall transmission throughput. Parallel data transmission is beneficial for higher data rates. Parallel transmission or connection is also good in services such as video streaming where if one connection is occupied with errors the transmission continues on alternate links. With parallel transmission, the unordered data packets arrival is very common at receiver. The receiver has to wait until the missing data packets arrive, causing performance degradation while using CMT-SCTP. In order to reduce the transmission delay at the receiver, CMT-SCTP uses intelligent retransmission polices to immediately retransmit the missing packets. The retransmission policies used by CMT-SCTP are RTX-SSTHRESH, RTX-LOSSRATE and RTX-CWND. The main objective of this paper is the performance analysis of the retransmission policies. This paper evaluates RTX-SSTHRESH, RTX-LOSSRATE and RTX-CWND. Simulations are performed on the Network Simulator 2. In the simulations with various scenarios and parameters, it is observed that the RTX-LOSSRATE is a suitable policy.

  1. The effectiveness of China's wind power policy: An empirical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Xiaoli; Li, Shujie; Zhang, Sufang; Yang, Rui; Liu, Suwei

    2016-01-01

    Along with China's rapid industrialization and urbanization, challenges in reducing pollution and CO_2 emissions are increasing. One of the major approaches to coordinate economic growth and environmental protection is to substitute coal-fired power with renewable energy. Since 2003, in order to promote wind power development, China has put in place many support policies which fall into either price policy category or non-price policy category. By using a variable intercept and mixed regression model with provincial panel data during 2001–2013, we analyzed the impacts of both categories on the increase of installed capacity in areas with different wind resources. We found that price policy and two non-price policies had positive impacts on the increase of wind power installation, price policy played a greater role than non-price policy did in promoting wind power development, and price policy was more effective in areas with poor wind resources, whilst non- price policy was more effective in areas with rich wind resources. Built on these findings, conclusions and policy recommendations are provided at the end of the paper. - Highlights: •We study the impact of price policy on China's new wind power capacity. •Four non-price policies impact on China's new wind power capacity is studied. •Price policy is more effective in wind power increase than non-price policy. •Price policy is more effective than non-price policy in wind non-rich areas. •Non-price policy is more effective than price policy in wind rich areas.

  2. Development and Application of Econometric Models for Forecasting and Analysis of Monetary Policy Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Malugin, Vladimir; Demidenko , Mikhail; Kalechits, Dmitry; Miksjuk , Alexei; Tsukarev , Taras

    2009-01-01

    A system of econometric models designed for forecasting target monetary indicators as well as conducting monetary policy scenarios analysis is presented. The econometric models integrated in the system are represented in the error correction form and are interlinked by means of monetary policy instruments variables, common exogenous variables characterizing external shocks, and monetary policy target endogenous variables. Forecast accuracy estimates and monetary policy analysis results are pr...

  3. Review of maritime transportation air emission pollution and policy analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Haifeng; Liu, Dahai; Dai, Guilin

    2009-09-01

    The study of air emission in maritime transportation is new, and the recognition of its importance has been rising in the recent decade. The emissions of CO2, SO2, NO2 and particulate matters from maritime transportation have contributed to climate change and environmental degradation. Scientifically, analysts still have controversies regarding how to calculate the emissions and how to choose the baseline and methodologies. Three methods are generally used, namely the ‘bottom up’ approach, the ‘top down’ approach and the STEEM, which produce very different results, leading to various papers with great uncertainties. This, in turn, results in great difficulties to policy makers who attempt to regulate the emissions. A recent technique, the STEEM, is intended to combine the former two methods to reduce their drawbacks. However, the regulations based on its results may increase the costs of shipping companies and cause the competitiveness of the port states and coastal states. Quite a few papers have focused on this area and provided another fresh perspective for the air emission to be incorporated in maritime transportation regulations; these facts deserve more attention. This paper is to review the literature on the debates over air emission calculation, with particular attention given to the STEEM and the refined estimation methods. It also reviews related literature on the economic analysis of maritime transportation emission regulations, and provides an insight into such analysis. At the end of this paper, based on a review and analysis of previous literature, we conclude with the policy indications in the future and work that should be done. As the related regulations in maritime transportation emissions are still at their beginning stage in China, this paper provides specific suggestions on how China should regulate emissions in the maritime transportation sector.

  4. Unified functional network and nonlinear time series analysis for complex systems science: The pyunicorn package

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donges, Jonathan; Heitzig, Jobst; Beronov, Boyan; Wiedermann, Marc; Runge, Jakob; Feng, Qing Yi; Tupikina, Liubov; Stolbova, Veronika; Donner, Reik; Marwan, Norbert; Dijkstra, Henk; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-04-01

    We introduce the pyunicorn (Pythonic unified complex network and recurrence analysis toolbox) open source software package for applying and combining modern methods of data analysis and modeling from complex network theory and nonlinear time series analysis. pyunicorn is a fully object-oriented and easily parallelizable package written in the language Python. It allows for the construction of functional networks such as climate networks in climatology or functional brain networks in neuroscience representing the structure of statistical interrelationships in large data sets of time series and, subsequently, investigating this structure using advanced methods of complex network theory such as measures and models for spatial networks, networks of interacting networks, node-weighted statistics, or network surrogates. Additionally, pyunicorn provides insights into the nonlinear dynamics of complex systems as recorded in uni- and multivariate time series from a non-traditional perspective by means of recurrence quantification analysis, recurrence networks, visibility graphs, and construction of surrogate time series. The range of possible applications of the library is outlined, drawing on several examples mainly from the field of climatology. pyunicorn is available online at https://github.com/pik-copan/pyunicorn. Reference: J.F. Donges, J. Heitzig, B. Beronov, M. Wiedermann, J. Runge, Q.-Y. Feng, L. Tupikina, V. Stolbova, R.V. Donner, N. Marwan, H.A. Dijkstra, and J. Kurths, Unified functional network and nonlinear time series analysis for complex systems science: The pyunicorn package, Chaos 25, 113101 (2015), DOI: 10.1063/1.4934554, Preprint: arxiv.org:1507.01571 [physics.data-an].

  5. Independent component analysis: A new possibility for analysing series of electron energy loss spectra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnet, Nogl; Nuzillard, Danielle

    2005-01-01

    A complementary approach is proposed for analysing series of electron energy-loss spectra that can be recorded with the spectrum-line technique, across an interface for instance. This approach, called blind source separation (BSS) or independent component analysis (ICA), complements two existing methods: the spatial difference approach and multivariate statistical analysis. The principle of the technique is presented and illustrations are given through one simulated example and one real example

  6. International Commercial Remote Sensing Practices and Policies: A Comparative Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stryker, Timothy

    sensing satellite industry. In commissioning this study, NOAA's goal was to better understand the role that U.S. Government policies and regulations have in shaping the prospects for emerging commercial remote sensing satellite firms. The study assessed the risks against broader trends in the larger U.S. remote sensing industry and geospatial technology and effective policy implementation. The Department of Commerce is working with NOAA licensees to identify foreign actions which could restrict market access by U.S. firms, and seeking to provide a "level playing field" for U.S. service providers. The Department of Commerce has dedicated new resources to its licensing activities. In Fiscal Year 2002, the Department obtained 1.2 million in funding to support the NOAA program, through staff, equipment, technical support, constituent outreach, and market and policy studies. To better understand the market and make more well-informed licensing decisions, NOAA is participating in a broad-based market study effort under the direction of the American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing (ASPRS) and NASA's Commercial Remote Sensing Program. This study is providing long-term analysis of the commercial remote sensing industry. It is being supported by interviews with industry and government experts, a web-based survey, and a thorough review and analysis of related literature. The project should more clearly determine future remote sensing needs and requirements, and maximize the industry's baselines, standards, and socio-economic potential. NOAA, through its participation in this study, has gained important new insights into the status and future trends of this industry. The study's initial findings estimate 2001 industry revenue at 2 billion, growing at 13% per year, to an approximate level of 6 billion in 2010 (in constant, calendar year 2000 dollars). Currently, across all sectors, the most active market segments are in nati onal /glo bal security, mapping

  7. Green electricity policies in the Netherlands: an analysis of policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rooijen, Sascha N.M. van; Wees, Mark T. van

    2006-01-01

    Over the last decades, fundamental changes can be observed in both market conditions and the national policy framework for green electricity in the Netherlands. The Dutch Government has regularly intervened in markets, demonstrating fundamental shifts in policy and approach. This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in the Netherlands. It assesses changes in the choice of policy instruments and target groups, the role of stakeholders, and offers explanations behind policy successes and failures. Dutch green electricity policy over the last decade can be characterised roughly by three phases: in the early 1990s, the government negotiated voluntary agreements with the energy distribution sector on targets for green electricity sales, which were never met. In the second half of the 1990s, a regulatory energy tax was introduced, from which customers of green electricity were exempt. This led to a substantial increase in demand, which was largely met by green electricity imports, and did not lead to additional domestic renewable energy capacity. Finally, a change in policy has taken place recently (2003) shifting the focus from promotion of demand to the promotion of supply through a system of regulated feed-in tariffs. Despite the renewable energy policies, growth of the renewable energy market in the Netherlands has been small and targets have not been fully met. The Dutch government has not yet succeeded in substantially reducing market uncertainties and in building confidence among market parties, because the policies have not been stable and policy objectives have frequently been partly ambiguous. In addition, the influence of stakeholders in renewable energy policy making has been small which has the early acceptance and implementation of alternative policies

  8. A model for policy analysis of the greenhouse effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hope, C.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes the PAGE model (for Policy Analysis of the Greenhouse Effect), developed by Cambridge Decision Analysts for the Directorate general for Environment, Nuclear Safety and Civil Protection of the Commission of the European Communities. The rest of this section describes the motivation for developing PAGE; it is followed by sections outlining the features of PAGE, explaining its structure in more detail, and reporting some of the uses to which it is being put. The current consensus is that unchecked emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to a rise in global mean temperature. The causal chain from emissions to temperature is complex, and current estimates give a range of 2 - 5 deg C for the temperature rise by the year 2100 if no specific actions are taken to control emissions. The damage that a global temperature rise of a few degrees over a century would cause is also not well known. Some influential groups are sufficiently alarmed to have called for global agreements to stabilize or reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases. Others claim that the costs of doing so would not be justified, and that adapting to a changed climate would be the best policy. Negotiations are further complicated by the global nature of the problem; if a country, or even a major trading block such as the European Community, decided to control emissions of a greenhouse gas, some of the benefit would be gained in other parts of the world that have not shared in the cost of control. 12 refs., 6 figs

  9. A study on the nuclear foreign policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Keun Bae; Choi, Y. M.; Lee, D. J.; Lee, K. S.; Lee, B. W.; Cho, I. H.; Ko, H. S.

    1996-12-01

    This study aims to analyses recent trends of international situation relating to nuclear non-proliferation and the adverse conditions in Korea's pursuing self-support of such technology, so that it may map out effective strategies for the promotion of nuclear energy. This study analyses developments of international nuclear non-proliferation regime, which plays a main role in preventing the international proliferation of nuclear weapons. This study includes NPT, IAEA safeguards system, international export control regimes, CTBT, and NWFZs as the subjects of analysis. Second theme is international organizations concerning nuclear activities. This study mainly analyses IAEA activities which pursues the promotion of peaceful use of nuclear energy and nuclear non-proliferation simultaneously as a pivotal body of international nuclear cooperation. Third focus of this study is Northeast Asian circumstances pertaining to nuclear non-proliferation. The study looks into the DPRK nuclear issues, and reviews the developments of the proposed regional body for nuclear cooperation and the discussion on the Northeast Asian NWFZ. Fourth, but the most influential to Korean nuclear activities, is the U. S. nuclear policy, since U. S. takes the overwhelming initiative in the field of international nuclear non-proliferation. Therefore, this study gives much weight in analyzing the structure, procedures, recent trend, and pending issues of U. S. nuclear policy. (author). 78 refs., 5 tabs., 4 figs

  10. Modeling malaria control intervention effect in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa using intervention time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebhuoma, Osadolor; Gebreslasie, Michael; Magubane, Lethumusa

    The change of the malaria control intervention policy in South Africa (SA), re-introduction of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), may be responsible for the low and sustained malaria transmission in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN). We evaluated the effect of the re-introduction of DDT on malaria in KZN and suggested practical ways the province can strengthen her already existing malaria control and elimination efforts, to achieve zero malaria transmission. We obtained confirmed monthly malaria cases in KZN from the malaria control program of KZN from 1998 to 2014. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) intervention time series analysis (ITSA) was employed to model the effect of the re-introduction of DDT on confirmed monthly malaria cases. The result is an abrupt and permanent decline of monthly malaria cases (w 0 =-1174.781, p-value=0.003) following the implementation of the intervention policy. The sustained low malaria cases observed over a long period suggests that the continued usage of DDT did not result in insecticide resistance as earlier anticipated. It may be due to exophagic malaria vectors, which renders the indoor residual spraying not totally effective. Therefore, the feasibility of reducing malaria transmission to zero in KZN requires other reliable and complementary intervention resources to optimize the existing ones. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  11. TTI Phase 2 Institutional Support: Institute for Policy Analysis and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    ... and Research's (IPAR-Rwanda) role as a credible public policy institution in ... TTI is a multi-funder program dedicated to strengthening independent policy ... IDRC congratulates first cohort of Women in Climate Change Science Fellows.

  12. The Analysis for IAEA Policy using Big Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koh, Byungmarn; Chang, Sunyoung

    2017-01-01

    It is expect to be no major change in the IAEA policy if the current director general is re-elected. So, in this paper, the policy basis and policy changes are investigated and analyzed during his tenure. During Yukiya Amano tenure, the IAEA policy is largely confirmed in two ways. First, it is the nuclear non-proliferation and security policy represented by Safety, Security and Safeguards. Second is the new technology development policy. The major policy related to nuclear nonproliferation and security is analyzed as international cooperation in the fields of nuclear safety and security since the Fukushima accident, and safeguards activities related to the Iran nuclear program. The new technology development policy is the cancer treatment programs using nuclear technology and development of technology for solve to global issues such as water, foods, environment and etc.

  13. Time Series Imputation via L1 Norm-Based Singular Spectrum Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalantari, Mahdi; Yarmohammadi, Masoud; Hassani, Hossein; Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal

    Missing values in time series data is a well-known and important problem which many researchers have studied extensively in various fields. In this paper, a new nonparametric approach for missing value imputation in time series is proposed. The main novelty of this research is applying the L1 norm-based version of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), namely L1-SSA which is robust against outliers. The performance of the new imputation method has been compared with many other established methods. The comparison is done by applying them to various real and simulated time series. The obtained results confirm that the SSA-based methods, especially L1-SSA can provide better imputation in comparison to other methods.

  14. Analysis of Land Subsidence Monitoring in Mining Area with Time-Series Insar Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, N.; Wang, Y. J.

    2018-04-01

    Time-series InSAR technology has become a popular land subsidence monitoring method in recent years, because of its advantages such as high accuracy, wide area, low expenditure, intensive monitoring points and free from accessibility restrictions. In this paper, we applied two kinds of satellite data, ALOS PALSAR and RADARSAT-2, to get the subsidence monitoring results of the study area in two time periods by time-series InSAR technology. By analyzing the deformation range, rate and amount, the time-series analysis of land subsidence in mining area was realized. The results show that InSAR technology could be used to monitor land subsidence in large area and meet the demand of subsidence monitoring in mining area.

  15. Environmental management policy analysis using complex system simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Eeckhout, E.; Roberts, D.; Oakes, R.; Shieh, A.; Hardie, W.; Pope, P.

    1999-01-01

    The two primary modules of Envirosim (the model of Los Alamos TA-55 and the WIPP transport/storage model) have been combined into one application, with the simulated waste generated by TA-55 operations being fed to storage, packaging, and transport simulation entities. Three simulation scenarios were executed which demonstrate the usefulness of Envirosim as a policy analysis tool for use in planning shipments to WIPP. A graphical user interface (GUI) has been implemented using IDL (Interactive Data Language) which allows the analyst to easily view simulation results. While IDL is not necessarily the graphics interface that would be selected for a production version of Envirosim, it does provide some powerful data manipulation capabilities, and it runs on a variety of platforms

  16. Development and analysis of security policies in security enhanced Android

    OpenAIRE

    Rimando, Ryan A.

    2012-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. This thesis examines Security Enhanced Android. Both its policy and its additional security features are explored. The policy is examined in depth, providing a better understanding of the security provided by SE Android. We analyze the default SE Android policy. We identify a potential weakness and change the policy to facilitate control over communication channels. A proof-of-concept set of applications is developed to demonstrate ho...

  17. A Theoretical Analysis of Agricultural Policy in Nigeria.

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The colonial and post-colonial Nigerian State inherited agricultural policy antithetical to its development and the realization of domestic objectives. This paper establishes a theoretical nexus between a neo-colonial state, poverty, agricultural practices and policies. It examines the agricultural policies of the Nigerian state ...

  18. Analysis of the Policies for Female Teachers in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, Moo Sook

    2000-01-01

    Reviews Korean female-teacher-related policies, focusing on: policies for improving the working conditions of women in schools; promotion-related policies for facilitating female teachers' advancement to administrative posts; and a gender-quota system for reducing the proportion of female teachers in the teaching profession. The paper concludes…

  19. Sensitivity analysis of machine-learning models of hydrologic time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Reilly, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Sensitivity analysis traditionally has been applied to assessing model response to perturbations in model parameters, where the parameters are those model input variables adjusted during calibration. Unlike physics-based models where parameters represent real phenomena, the equivalent of parameters for machine-learning models are simply mathematical "knobs" that are automatically adjusted during training/testing/verification procedures. Thus the challenge of extracting knowledge of hydrologic system functionality from machine-learning models lies in their very nature, leading to the label "black box." Sensitivity analysis of the forcing-response behavior of machine-learning models, however, can provide understanding of how the physical phenomena represented by model inputs affect the physical phenomena represented by model outputs.As part of a previous study, hybrid spectral-decomposition artificial neural network (ANN) models were developed to simulate the observed behavior of hydrologic response contained in multidecadal datasets of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow. Model inputs used moving window averages (MWA) to represent various frequencies and frequency-band components of time series of rainfall and groundwater use. Using these forcing time series, the MWA-ANN models were trained to predict time series of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at 51 sites in central Florida, USA. A time series of sensitivities for each MWA-ANN model was produced by perturbing forcing time-series and computing the change in response time-series per unit change in perturbation. Variations in forcing-response sensitivities are evident between types (lake, groundwater level, or spring), spatially (among sites of the same type), and temporally. Two generally common characteristics among sites are more uniform sensitivities to rainfall over time and notable increases in sensitivities to groundwater usage during significant drought periods.

  20. Application of the Allan Variance to Time Series Analysis in Astrometry and Geodesy: A Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malkin, Zinovy

    2016-04-01

    The Allan variance (AVAR) was introduced 50 years ago as a statistical tool for assessing the frequency standards deviations. For the past decades, AVAR has increasingly been used in geodesy and astrometry to assess the noise characteristics in geodetic and astrometric time series. A specific feature of astrometric and geodetic measurements, as compared with clock measurements, is that they are generally associated with uncertainties; thus, an appropriate weighting should be applied during data analysis. In addition, some physically connected scalar time series naturally form series of multidimensional vectors. For example, three station coordinates time series X, Y, and Z can be combined to analyze 3-D station position variations. The classical AVAR is not intended for processing unevenly weighted and/or multidimensional data. Therefore, AVAR modifications, namely weighted AVAR (WAVAR), multidimensional AVAR (MAVAR), and weighted multidimensional AVAR (WMAVAR), were introduced to overcome these deficiencies. In this paper, a brief review is given of the experience of using AVAR and its modifications in processing astrogeodetic time series.

  1. Social network analysis of character interaction in the Stargate and Star Trek television series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Melody Shi Ai; Ujum, Ephrance Abu; Ratnavelu, Kuru

    This paper undertakes a social network analysis of two science fiction television series, Stargate and Star Trek. Television series convey stories in the form of character interaction, which can be represented as “character networks”. We connect each pair of characters that exchanged spoken dialogue in any given scene demarcated in the television series transcripts. These networks are then used to characterize the overall structure and topology of each series. We find that the character networks of both series have similar structure and topology to that found in previous work on mythological and fictional networks. The character networks exhibit the small-world effects but found no significant support for power-law. Since the progression of an episode depends to a large extent on the interaction between each of its characters, the underlying network structure tells us something about the complexity of that episode’s storyline. We assessed the complexity using techniques from spectral graph theory. We found that the episode networks are structured either as (1) closed networks, (2) those containing bottlenecks that connect otherwise disconnected clusters or (3) a mixture of both.

  2. Principal components and iterative regression analysis of geophysical series: Application to Sunspot number (1750 2004)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordemann, D. J. R.; Rigozo, N. R.; de Souza Echer, M. P.; Echer, E.

    2008-11-01

    We present here an implementation of a least squares iterative regression method applied to the sine functions embedded in the principal components extracted from geophysical time series. This method seems to represent a useful improvement for the non-stationary time series periodicity quantitative analysis. The principal components determination followed by the least squares iterative regression method was implemented in an algorithm written in the Scilab (2006) language. The main result of the method is to obtain the set of sine functions embedded in the series analyzed in decreasing order of significance, from the most important ones, likely to represent the physical processes involved in the generation of the series, to the less important ones that represent noise components. Taking into account the need of a deeper knowledge of the Sun's past history and its implication to global climate change, the method was applied to the Sunspot Number series (1750-2004). With the threshold and parameter values used here, the application of the method leads to a total of 441 explicit sine functions, among which 65 were considered as being significant and were used for a reconstruction that gave a normalized mean squared error of 0.146.

  3. BiGGEsTS: integrated environment for biclustering analysis of time series gene expression data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madeira Sara C

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The ability to monitor changes in expression patterns over time, and to observe the emergence of coherent temporal responses using expression time series, is critical to advance our understanding of complex biological processes. Biclustering has been recognized as an effective method for discovering local temporal expression patterns and unraveling potential regulatory mechanisms. The general biclustering problem is NP-hard. In the case of time series this problem is tractable, and efficient algorithms can be used. However, there is still a need for specialized applications able to take advantage of the temporal properties inherent to expression time series, both from a computational and a biological perspective. Findings BiGGEsTS makes available state-of-the-art biclustering algorithms for analyzing expression time series. Gene Ontology (GO annotations are used to assess the biological relevance of the biclusters. Methods for preprocessing expression time series and post-processing results are also included. The analysis is additionally supported by a visualization module capable of displaying informative representations of the data, including heatmaps, dendrograms, expression charts and graphs of enriched GO terms. Conclusion BiGGEsTS is a free open source graphical software tool for revealing local coexpression of genes in specific intervals of time, while integrating meaningful information on gene annotations. It is freely available at: http://kdbio.inesc-id.pt/software/biggests. We present a case study on the discovery of transcriptional regulatory modules in the response of Saccharomyces cerevisiae to heat stress.

  4. Definition of distance for nonlinear time series analysis of marked point process data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iwayama, Koji, E-mail: koji@sat.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Research Institute for Food and Agriculture, Ryukoku Univeristy, 1-5 Yokotani, Seta Oe-cho, Otsu-Shi, Shiga 520-2194 (Japan); Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki [Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8505 (Japan)

    2017-01-30

    Marked point process data are time series of discrete events accompanied with some values, such as economic trades, earthquakes, and lightnings. A distance for marked point process data allows us to apply nonlinear time series analysis to such data. We propose a distance for marked point process data which can be calculated much faster than the existing distance when the number of marks is small. Furthermore, under some assumptions, the Kullback–Leibler divergences between posterior distributions for neighbors defined by this distance are small. We performed some numerical simulations showing that analysis based on the proposed distance is effective. - Highlights: • A new distance for marked point process data is proposed. • The distance can be computed fast enough for a small number of marks. • The method to optimize parameter values of the distance is also proposed. • Numerical simulations indicate that the analysis based on the distance is effective.

  5. Checklist "Open Access Policies": Analysis of the Open Access Policies of Public Universities in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Bauer

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This checklist provides an overview of the Open Access policies implemented at Austrian universities and extramural research institutions. Furthermore, the polices adopted at nine public universities are analyzed and the respective text modules are categorized thematically. The second part of the checklist presents measures for the promotion of Open Access following the implementation of an Open Access policy.

  6. Responses to Including Parents in Teacher Evaluation Policy: A Critical Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, Erica; LeChasseur, Kimberly; Donaldson, Morgaen L.

    2018-01-01

    The intersection of development in family and school settings has been well established and education policies have begun to promote ways to bridge the two contexts (i.e. teacher evaluations). For this manuscript, authors focus on how teachers and principals used a state educator evaluation policy to position parents as authorities on education.…

  7. Introduction of male circumcision for HIV prevention in Uganda: analysis of the policy process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odoch, Walter Denis; Kabali, Kenneth; Ankunda, Racheal; Zulu, Joseph Mumba; Tetui, Moses

    2015-06-20

    Health policy analysis is important for all health policies especially in fields with ever changing evidence-based interventions such as HIV prevention. However, there are few published reports of health policy analysis in sub-Saharan Africa in this field. This study explored the policy process of the introduction of male circumcision (MC) for HIV prevention in Uganda in order to inform the development processes of similar health policies. Desk review of relevant documents was conducted between March and May 2012. Thematic analysis was used to analyse the data. Conceptual frameworks that demonstrate the interrelationship within the policy development processes and influence of actors in the policy development processes guided the analysis. Following the introduction of MC on the national policy agenda in 2007, negotiation and policy formulation preceded its communication and implementation. Policy proponents included academic researchers in the early 2000s and development partners around 2007. Favourable contextual factors that supported the development of the policy included the rising HIV prevalence, adoption of MC for HIV prevention in other sub-Saharan African countries, and expertise on MC. Additionally, the networking capability of proponents facilitated the change in position of non-supportive or neutral actors. Non-supportive and neutral actors in the initial stages of the policy development process included the Ministry of Health, traditional and Muslim leaders, and the Republican President. Using political authority, legitimacy, and charisma, actors who opposed the policy tried to block the policy development process. Researchers' initial disregard of the Ministry of Health in the research process of MC and the missing civil society advocacy arm contributed to delays in the policy development process. This study underscores the importance of securing top political leadership as well as key implementing partners' support in policy development processes

  8. Application of Time Series Analysis in Determination of Lag Time in Jahanbin Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seied Yahya Mirzaee

    2005-11-01

        One of the important issues that have significant role in study of hydrology of basin is determination of lag time. Lag time has significant role in hydrological studies. Quantity of rainfall related lag time depends on several factors, such as permeability, vegetation cover, catchments slope, rainfall intensity, storm duration and type of rain. Determination of lag time is important parameter in many projects such as dam design and also water resource studies. Lag time of basin could be calculated using various methods. One of these methods is time series analysis of spectral density. The analysis is based on fouries series. The time series is approximated with Sinuous and Cosines functions. In this method harmonically significant quantities with individual frequencies are presented. Spectral density under multiple time series could be used to obtain basin lag time for annual runoff and short-term rainfall fluctuation. A long lag time could be due to snowmelt as well as melting ice due to rainfalls in freezing days. In this research the lag time of Jahanbin basin has been determined using spectral density method. The catchments is subjected to both rainfall and snowfall. For short term rainfall fluctuation with a return period  2, 3, 4 months, the lag times were found 0.18, 0.5 and 0.083 month, respectively.

  9. Statistical tools for analysis and modeling of cosmic populations and astronomical time series: CUDAHM and TSE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loredo, Thomas; Budavari, Tamas; Scargle, Jeffrey D.

    2018-01-01

    This presentation provides an overview of open-source software packages addressing two challenging classes of astrostatistics problems. (1) CUDAHM is a C++ framework for hierarchical Bayesian modeling of cosmic populations, leveraging graphics processing units (GPUs) to enable applying this computationally challenging paradigm to large datasets. CUDAHM is motivated by measurement error problems in astronomy, where density estimation and linear and nonlinear regression must be addressed for populations of thousands to millions of objects whose features are measured with possibly complex uncertainties, potentially including selection effects. An example calculation demonstrates accurate GPU-accelerated luminosity function estimation for simulated populations of $10^6$ objects in about two hours using a single NVIDIA Tesla K40c GPU. (2) Time Series Explorer (TSE) is a collection of software in Python and MATLAB for exploratory analysis and statistical modeling of astronomical time series. It comprises a library of stand-alone functions and classes, as well as an application environment for interactive exploration of times series data. The presentation will summarize key capabilities of this emerging project, including new algorithms for analysis of irregularly-sampled time series.

  10. Campus Sustainability Governance in Canada: A Content Analysis of Post-Secondary Institutions' Sustainability Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughter, Philip; McKenzie, Marcia; Lidstone, Lauri; Wright, Tarah

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims to provide an overview of a content analysis of sustainability policies from Canadian post-secondary education institutions. The paper reports findings on the orientations to sustainability evident in the policies; references to other policies within the documents; and other key themes on how sustainability is engaged in…

  11. Fractal time series analysis of postural stability in elderly and control subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doussot Michel

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The study of balance using stabilogram analysis is of particular interest in the study of falls. Although simple statistical parameters derived from the stabilogram have been shown to predict risk of falls, such measures offer little insight into the underlying control mechanisms responsible for degradation in balance. In contrast, fractal and non-linear time-series analysis of stabilograms, such as estimations of the Hurst exponent (H, may provide information related to the underlying motor control strategies governing postural stability. In order to be adapted for a home-based follow-up of balance, such methods need to be robust, regardless of the experimental protocol, while producing time-series that are as short as possible. The present study compares two methods of calculating H: Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA and Stabilogram Diffusion Analysis (SDA for elderly and control subjects, as well as evaluating the effect of recording duration. Methods Centre of pressure signals were obtained from 90 young adult subjects and 10 elderly subjects. Data were sampled at 100 Hz for 30 s, including stepping onto and off the force plate. Estimations of H were made using sliding windows of 10, 5, and 2.5 s durations, with windows slid forward in 1-s increments. Multivariate analysis of variance was used to test for the effect of time, age and estimation method on the Hurst exponent, while the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC was used as a measure of reliability. Results Both SDA and DFA methods were able to identify differences in postural stability between control and elderly subjects for time series as short as 5 s, with ICC values as high as 0.75 for DFA. Conclusion Both methods would be well-suited to non-invasive longitudinal assessment of balance. In addition, reliable estimations of H were obtained from time series as short as 5 s.

  12. Analysis of distributed-generation photovoltaic deployment, installation time and cost, market barriers, and policies in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Fang; Deng, Hao; Margolis, Robert; Su, Jun

    2015-01-01

    Beginning in 2013, China's photovoltaic (PV) market-development strategy witnessed a series of policy changes aimed at making distributed-generation PV (DG PV) development an equal priority with large-scale PV development. This article reviews the DG PV policy changes since 2013 and examines their effect on China's domestic DG PV market. Based on a 2014 survey of DG PV market and policy participants, we present cost and time breakdowns for installing DG PV projects in China, and we identify the main barriers to DG PV installation. We also use a cash flow model to determine the relative economic attractiveness of DG PV in several eastern provinces in China. The main factors constraining DG PV deployment in China include financial barriers resulting from the structure of the self-consumption feed-in tariff (FIT), ambivalence about DG PV within grid companies, complicated ownership structures for buildings/rooftops/businesses, and the inherent time lag in policy implementation from the central government to provincial and local governments. We conclude with policy implications and suggestions in the context of DG PV policy changes the Chinese government implemented in September 2014. -- Highlights: •We review China's distributed PV market development and policy changes since 2013. •We present cost and time requirements for installing distributed PV in China. •We conduct IRR analysis of distributed PV under different policy frameworks. •We identify barriers to China's distributed PV, especially feed-in tariff barriers

  13. Impact Analysis of Air Pollutant Emission Policies on Thermal Coal Supply Chain Enterprises in China

    OpenAIRE

    Xiaopeng Guo; Xiaodan Guo; Jiahai Yuan

    2014-01-01

    Spurred by the increasingly serious air pollution problem, the Chinese government has launched a series of policies to put forward specific measures of power structure adjustment and the control objectives of air pollution and coal consumption. Other policies pointed out that the coal resources regional blockades will be broken by improving transportation networks and constructing new logistics nodes. Thermal power takes the largest part of China’s total installed power generation capacity, s...

  14. Open Access Journal Policies: A Systematic Analysis of Radiology Journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayan, Anand; Lobner, Katie; Fritz, Jan

    2018-02-01

    The open access movement has pushed for greater access to scientific knowledge by expanding access to scientific journal articles. There is limited information about the extent to which open access policies have been adopted by radiology journals. We performed a systematic analysis to ascertain the proportion of radiology journals with open access options. A search was performed with the assistance of a clinical informationist. Full and mixed English-language diagnostic and interventional radiology Web of Science journals (impact factors > 1.0) were included. Nuclear medicine, radiation oncology, physics, and solicitation-only journals were excluded. Primary outcome was open access option (yes or no) with additional outcomes including presence or absence of embargo, complete or partial copyright transfer, publication fees, and self-archiving policies. Secondary outcomes included journal citations, journal impact factors, immediacy, Eigenfactor, and article influence scores. Independent double readings were performed with differences resolved by consensus, supplemented by contacting editorial staff at each journal. In all, 125 journals were identified; review yielded 49 journals (39%, mean impact factor of 2.61). Thirty-six of the journals had open access options (73.4%), and four journals were exclusively open access (8.2%). Twelve-month embargoes were most commonly cited (90.6%) with 28.6% of journals stating that they did not require a complete transfer of copyright. Prices for open access options ranged from $750 to $4,000 (median $3,000). No statistically significant differences were found in journal impact measures comparing journals with open access options to journals without open access options. Diagnostic and interventional radiology journals have widely adopted open access options with a few radiology journals being exclusively open access. Copyright © 2017 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Foreign direct investment and liberalization policies in Pakistan: An empirical analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rana Ejaz Ali Khan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available To enhance the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI and ultimately to increase the economic growth, the countries have implemented a variety of financial and trade liberalization policies in the last three decades. Pakistan also initiated such type of policies. This study makes an analysis of the impact of liberalization (financial and trade in Pakistan, on the inflow of FDI using the time series data of 1971–2009. The DF-GLS test is used to determine the level of integration, and autoregressive distributed lag model to examine the long-run relationship. The results indicate that liberalization indicators, like financial liberalization index and trade openness along with real interest rate, negatively affect the inflow of FDI in Pakistan. Tax revenue of product also negatively affects the FDI. On the other hand, the gross fixed capital formation, infrastructure, and inflation positively influence the FDI in Pakistan. The market size (proxied by real gross domestic product has shown insignificant effect on FDI.

  16. Foreign Remittances, Foreign Direct Investment, Foreign Imports and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Tahir

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This empirical research paper focuses on establishing a relationship between external determinants and economic growth of Pakistan economy. Empirical analyses are carried out with time series econometric techniques using data over the period of 1977-2013. The main finding is that external determinants such as foreign remittances, foreign direct investment, and foreign imports matter from a growth perspective. Foreign remittances and foreign direct investment have a significant positive role in the growth process of Pakistan economy. Furthermore, it is found that foreign imports have adversely influenced the economic growth of Pakistan. The study recommends that policy makers shall take appropriate steps to increase the inflow of both foreign remittances and foreign direct investment in order to achieve the long run economic growth.

  17. Analyzing Public Discourse: Using Media Content Analysis to Understand the Policy Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraisky, Nancy Green

    2016-01-01

    One of the most basic and obvious sources of data for education policy analysis is text. This article discusses content analysis as an important part of the methodological toolbox for elucidating patterns and trends about education policy. Focusing specifically on media, I show how media content analysis can produce nuanced insights about the ways…

  18. Language Ideology or Language Practice? An Analysis of Language Policy Documents at Swedish Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Björkman, Beyza

    2014-01-01

    This article presents an analysis and interpretation of language policy documents from eight Swedish universities with regard to intertextuality, authorship and content analysis of the notions of language practices and English as a lingua franca (ELF). The analysis is then linked to Spolsky's framework of language policy, namely language…

  19. Adventures in Modern Time Series Analysis: From the Sun to the Crab Nebula and Beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scargle, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    With the generation of long, precise, and finely sampled time series the Age of Digital Astronomy is uncovering and elucidating energetic dynamical processes throughout the Universe. Fulfilling these opportunities requires data effective analysis techniques rapidly and automatically implementing advanced concepts. The Time Series Explorer, under development in collaboration with Tom Loredo, provides tools ranging from simple but optimal histograms to time and frequency domain analysis for arbitrary data modes with any time sampling. Much of this development owes its existence to Joe Bredekamp and the encouragement he provided over several decades. Sample results for solar chromospheric activity, gamma-ray activity in the Crab Nebula, active galactic nuclei and gamma-ray bursts will be displayed.

  20. A Policy Analysis of the Coast Guard's Existing Patient Satisfaction System and Recommendations for Improvement

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Coughlin, Kelly A

    2007-01-01

    .... This paper evaluates CG organizational demands, describes CG practice landscape, presents standards, reviews initial clinic process analysis, and evaluates the cost and criteria of proposed policy alternatives...

  1. Integrating agricultural research and policy analysis: analytical framework and policy applications for bio-economic modelling.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruben, R.; Moll, H.; Kuyvenhoven, A.

    1998-01-01

    Interdisciplinary approaches to identify suitable incentives for enhancing sustainable natural resource use require an analytical framework that satisfies both practical purposes of policy support and disciplinary requirements regarding the specification of underlying technical and behavioural

  2. Dynamic mobility applications policy analysis : policy and institutional issues for intelligent network flow optimization (INFLO).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    The report documents policy considerations for the Intelligent Network Flow Optimization (INFLO) connected vehicle applications : bundle. INFLO aims to optimize network flow on freeways and arterials by informing motorists of existing and impen...

  3. Analysis of selected policies towards universal health coverage in Uganda: the policy implementation barometer protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongoro, Charles; Rutebemberwa, Elizeus; Twalo, Thembinkosi; Mwendera, Chikondi; Douglas, Mbuyiselo; Mukuru, Moses; Kasasa, Simon; Ssengooba, Freddie

    2018-01-01

    Policy implementation remains an under researched area in most low and middle income countries and it is not surprising that several policies are implemented without a systematic follow up of why and how they are working or failing. This study is part of a larger project called Supporting Policy Engagement for Evidence-based Decisions (SPEED) for Universal Health Coverage in Uganda. It seeks to support policymakers monitor the implementation of vital programmes for the realisation of policy goals for Universal Health Coverage. A Policy Implementation Barometer (PIB) is proposed as a mechanism to provide feedback to the decision makers about the implementation of a selected set of policy programmes at various implementation levels (macro, meso and micro level). The main objective is to establish the extent of implementation of malaria, family planning and emergency obstetric care policies in Uganda and use these results to support stakeholder engagements for corrective action. This is the first PIB survey of the three planned surveys and its specific objectives include: assessment of the perceived appropriateness of implementation programmes to the identified policy problems; determination of enablers and constraints to implementation of the policies; comparison of on-line and face-to-face administration of the PIB questionnaire among target respondents; and documentation of stakeholder responses to PIB findings with regard to corrective actions for implementation. The PIB will be a descriptive and analytical study employing mixed methods in which both quantitative and qualitative data will be systematically collected and analysed. The first wave will focus on 10 districts and primary data will be collected through interviews. The study seeks to interview 570 respondents of which 120 will be selected at national level with 40 based on each of the three policy domains, 200 from 10 randomly selected districts, and 250 from 50 facilities. Half of the respondents at

  4. Flood Frequency Analysis For Partial Duration Series In Ganjiang River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    zhangli, Sun; xiufang, Zhu; yaozhong, Pan

    2016-04-01

    Accurate estimation of flood frequency is key to effective, nationwide flood damage abatement programs. The partial duration series (PDS) method is widely used in hydrologic studies because it considers all events above a certain threshold level as compared to the annual maximum series (AMS) method, which considers only the annual maximum value. However, the PDS has a drawback in that it is difficult to define the thresholds and maintain an independent and identical distribution of the partial duration time series; this drawback is discussed in this paper. The Ganjiang River is the seventh largest tributary of the Yangtze River, the longest river in China. The Ganjiang River covers a drainage area of 81,258 km2 at the Wanzhou hydrologic station as the basin outlet. In this work, 56 years of daily flow data (1954-2009) from the Wanzhou station were used to analyze flood frequency, and the Pearson-III model was employed as the hydrologic probability distribution. Generally, three tasks were accomplished: (1) the threshold of PDS by percentile rank of daily runoff was obtained; (2) trend analysis of the flow series was conducted using PDS; and (3) flood frequency analysis was conducted for partial duration flow series. The results showed a slight upward trend of the annual runoff in the Ganjiang River basin. The maximum flow with a 0.01 exceedance probability (corresponding to a 100-year flood peak under stationary conditions) was 20,000 m3/s, while that with a 0.1 exceedance probability was 15,000 m3/s. These results will serve as a guide to hydrological engineering planning, design, and management for policymakers and decision makers associated with hydrology.

  5. Time-series analysis of climatologic measurements: a method to distinguish future climatic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duband, D.

    1992-01-01

    Time-series analysis of climatic parameters as air temperature, rivers flow rate, lakes or seas level is an indispensable basis to detect a possible significant climatic change. These observations, when they are carefully analyzed and criticized, constitute the necessary reference for testing and validation numerical climatic models which try to simulate the physical and dynamical process of the ocean-atmosphere couple, taking continents into account. 32 refs., 13 figs

  6. Chernobyl effects on domestic and inbound tourism in Sweden. A time series analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hultkrantz, L.; Olsson, C.

    1997-01-01

    This paper estimates the impact of the Chernobyl nuclear accident on domestic and international tourism in Sweden. From ARIMA time series forecasts, outlier search, and intervention analysis based on regional monthly accommodation data from 1978-1989, no effect on domestic tourism is found. However, there is an enduring deterrence effect on incoming tourism. The loss of gross revenue from incoming tourism because of the Chernobyl accident, is estimated to 2.5 billion SEK. 5 figs., 7 tabs., 1 appendix, 27 refs

  7. On-line condition monitoring of nuclear systems via symbolic time series analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajagopalan, V.; Ray, A.; Garcia, H. E.

    2006-01-01

    This paper provides a symbolic time series analysis approach to fault diagnostics and condition monitoring. The proposed technique is built upon concepts from wavelet theory, symbolic dynamics and pattern recognition. Various aspects of the methodology such as wavelet selection, choice of alphabet and determination of depth of D-Markov Machine are explained in the paper. The technique is validated with experiments performed in a Machine Condition Monitoring (MCM) test bed at the Idaho National Laboratory. (authors)

  8. A Time Series Analysis to Asymmetric Marketing Competition Within a Market Structure

    OpenAIRE

    Francisco F. R. Ramos

    1996-01-01

    As a complementary to the existing studies of competitive market structure analysis, the present paper proposed a time series methodology to provide a more detailed picture of marketing competition in relation to competitive market structure. Two major hypotheses were tested as part of this project. First, it was found that some significant cross- lead and lag effects of marketing variables on sales between brands existed even between differents submarkets. second, it was found that high qual...

  9. Time series analysis in road safety research uisng state space methods

    OpenAIRE

    BIJLEVELD, FD

    2008-01-01

    In this thesis we present a comprehensive study into novel time series models for aggregated road safety data. The models are mainly intended for analysis of indicators relevant to road safety, with a particular focus on how to measure these factors. Such developments may need to be related to or explained by external influences. It is also possible to make forecasts using the models. Relevant indicators include the number of persons killed permonth or year. These statistics are closely watch...

  10. Chernobyl effects on domestic and inbound tourism in Sweden. A time series analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hultkrantz, L. [Department of Economics, University of Uppsala, Uppsala (Sweden); Olsson, C. [Department of Economics, Umeaa University, Umeaa (Sweden)

    1997-03-01

    This paper estimates the impact of the Chernobyl nuclear accident on domestic and international tourism in Sweden. From ARIMA time series forecasts, outlier search, and intervention analysis based on regional monthly accommodation data from 1978-1989, no effect on domestic tourism is found. However, there is an enduring deterrence effect on incoming tourism. The loss of gross revenue from incoming tourism because of the Chernobyl accident, is estimated to 2.5 billion SEK. 5 figs., 7 tabs., 1 appendix, 27 refs.

  11. Time Series Modeling of Army Mission Command Communication Networks: An Event-Driven Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    Lehmann, D. R. (1984). How advertising affects sales: Meta- analysis of econometric results. Journal of Marketing Research , 21, 65-74. Barabási, A. L...317-357. Leone, R. P. (1983). Modeling sales-advertising relationships: An integrated time series- econometric approach. Journal of Marketing ... Research , 20, 291-295. McGrath, J. E., & Kravitz, D. A. (1982). Group research. Annual Review of Psychology, 33, 195- 230. Monge, P. R., & Contractor

  12. A HISTORICAL ANALYSIS OF THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina BALACEANU

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Agriculture is perceived by the EU as occupying a special place in its economic and social structure, because of its content and its relevance at the level of each individual. Consequently, the EU sustains that the relative poverty of a high proportion of its agricultural and rural population needs a protectionist price policy combined with a long term policy that would aim at its rural development, especially in the peripheral and poorly developed areas. Between EU policies Common Agricultural Policy is regarded as one of the most important. This not only because of the budget for the Union to finance this policy (which is about 50% of the total budget the number of people affected and territory involved, but also the historical importance of delegated sovereign attributes EU Member States to the decision. The importance of the Common Agricultural Policy derives of close links with the single market and economic and monetary union, two key areas of European integration.

  13. A FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS OF EUROPEAN LABOUR MARKET POLICIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Graţiela Georgiana Carica

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to analyse European labour market policies and their integrated guidelines, by highlighting various measures that need to be adopted in order to increase labour productivity, with positive effects on long-term economic development. The paper methodizes the main conditions complied by structural reforms in order to encourage labour employment and the policies that frame a more efficient unemployment insurance system crucial to increase security while encouraging the unemployed to look for a job and to accept a job offer, respectively on flexicurity policies. We found that employment rates are generally associated with large expenses on labour market policies and with an increased number of participants to programs developed within these types of policies. The degree of influence and strong dependence between outcome and labour market policies are illustrated in various ways and discussed within the paper.

  14. Analysis on policies text of air pollution control in Beijing

    Science.gov (United States)

    ZHANG, Yujuan; WANG, Wen; ZHANG, Wei

    2017-04-01

    Air pollution is one of the most serious environmental problems, and it is also the inevitable result of the extensive economic development mode. The matter of air pollution in Beijing is becoming more and more serious since 2010, which has a great impact on the normal social production, living and human health. These hazards have been highly valued by the whole society. More than 30 years have been pasted since controlling the air pollution and the system of policies was relatively complete. These policies have improved the quality of atmospheric and prevented environment further deterioration. The policies performance is not obvious. It is urgent trouble to improve policy performance. This paper analyzes the 103 policies text of air pollution control in Beijing, and researches status, history and problems, and put forward suggestions on policy improvement and innovation at last.

  15. The environmental policy of the EC. An analysis exemplified by air pollution abatement policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caspari, S.

    1995-01-01

    Since the early seventies the European Community has reacted to increasing ecological damage with complex and comprehensive common environmental policies. In this study, the author analyzes and evaluates the theoretical conception and the instrumental application of the EC Environmental Policy using four criteria: (1) Ecological effectiveness, (2) economic efficiency, (3) conformity with a market order - viewpoint of 'Ordnungspolitik', (4) 'sustainability'. The study shows that there is a large discrepancy between the demands and the reality of the EC Environmental Policy. In addition to grave ecological deficiencies it reveals an increse in rent-seeking activities and an interventionist trend which have resulted in the erosion of the competitive incentive system of the market order in the Community. In view of various deficits the author perceives a basic 'regulation paradox' and a 'policy failure'. Based on a diagnosis of the causes of these deficiencies, he outlines some proposals for a reform of the EC Environmental Policy, indicating that a central prerequisite for a more effective and efficient environmental protection is a reorientation in the system ('Ordnungspolitik') which determines the common Environmental Policy. In addition, he maintains that in view of the clear asymmetry in the representation of interests in favour of particularist interests it is necessary to strengthen public interest in order to enable a more effective protection of the options future generations will have regarding their lives and their behaviour. (orig.) [de

  16. Fear of Floating: An optimal discretionary monetary policy analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Madhavi Bokil

    2005-01-01

    This paper explores the idea that “Fear of Floating” and accompanying pro-cyclical interest rate policies observed in the case of some emerging market economies may be justified as an optimal discretionary monetary policy response to shocks. The paper also examines how the differences in monetary policies may lead to different degrees of this fear. These questions are addressed with a small open economy, new- Keynesian model with endogenous capital accumulation and sticky prices. The economy ...

  17. Social Media for Public Health: An Exploratory Policy Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Fast, Ingrid; Sørensen, Kristine; Brand, Helmut; Suggs, L. Suzanne

    2017-01-01

    Background: To accomplish the aims of public health practice and policy today, new forms of communication and education are being applied. Social media are increasingly relevant for public health and used by various actors. Apart from benefits, there can also be risks in using social media, but policies regulating engagement in social media is not well researched. This study examined European public health-related organizations' social media policies and describes the main components of exist...

  18. Deforestation, Leakage and Avoided Deforestation Policies: A Spatial Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Philippe Delacote; Elizabeth J. Z. Robinson; Sébastien Roussel

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyses the impact of several avoided deforestation policies within a patchy forested landscape. Central is the idea that one neighbour's deforestation actions may impact the returns to deforestation in nearby patches. We determine the impact of each policy in terms of avoided deforestation and leakage levels at the landscape scale through modelling and simulations. Avoided deforestation policies at a landscape level are respectively: two Payment for Environmental Services (PES) p...

  19. Policy and systems analysis for nuclear installation decommissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gu Jiande

    1995-01-01

    On the basis of introducing into principal concept for nuclear installation decommissioning, form policy, sciences point of view, the author analyses present problems in the policy, the administrative and programme for decommissioning work in China. According to the physical process of decommissioning, the author studied engineering economics, derived method and formulas to estimate decommissioning cost. It is pointed out that basing on optimization principle for radiation protection and analysing cost-benefit for decommissioning engineering, the corresponding policy decision can be made

  20. Monetary policy implications of financial innovation: In-depth analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Bernoth, Kerstin; Gebauer, Stefan; Schäfer, Dorothea

    2017-01-01

    In this policy brief, we argue that the financial innovations triggered by the FinTech industry have the potential to affect the transmission of monetary policy as well as the informational content of important monetary indicators. The growing FinTech industry could contribute substantially to the emergence of nonbank finance as a substitute for traditional commercial bank finance. While the overall effect of nonbank finance on monetary policy transmission is not yet clear, we argue that regu...

  1. TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON STOCK MARKET FOR TEXT MINING CORRELATION OF ECONOMY NEWS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadi Evren SEKER

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an information retrieval methodfor the economy news. Theeffect of economy news, are researched in the wordlevel and stock market valuesare considered as the ground proof.The correlation between stock market prices and economy news is an already ad-dressed problem for most of the countries. The mostwell-known approach is ap-plying the text mining approaches to the news and some time series analysis tech-niques over stock market closing values in order toapply classification or cluster-ing algorithms over the features extracted. This study goes further and tries to askthe question what are the available time series analysis techniques for the stockmarket closing values and which one is the most suitable? In this study, the newsand their dates are collected into a database and text mining is applied over thenews, the text mining part has been kept simple with only term frequency – in-verse document frequency method. For the time series analysis part, we havestudied 10 different methods such as random walk, moving average, acceleration,Bollinger band, price rate of change, periodic average, difference, momentum orrelative strength index and their variation. In this study we have also explainedthese techniques in a comparative way and we have applied the methods overTurkish Stock Market closing values for more than a2 year period. On the otherhand, we have applied the term frequency – inversedocument frequency methodon the economy news of one of the high-circulatingnewspapers in Turkey.

  2. The Fourier decomposition method for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Pushpendra; Joshi, Shiv Dutt; Patney, Rakesh Kumar; Saha, Kaushik

    2017-03-01

    for many decades, there has been a general perception in the literature that Fourier methods are not suitable for the analysis of nonlinear and non-stationary data. In this paper, we propose a novel and adaptive Fourier decomposition method (FDM), based on the Fourier theory, and demonstrate its efficacy for the analysis of nonlinear and non-stationary time series. The proposed FDM decomposes any data into a small number of 'Fourier intrinsic band functions' (FIBFs). The FDM presents a generalized Fourier expansion with variable amplitudes and variable frequencies of a time series by the Fourier method itself. We propose an idea of zero-phase filter bank-based multivariate FDM (MFDM), for the analysis of multivariate nonlinear and non-stationary time series, using the FDM. We also present an algorithm to obtain cut-off frequencies for MFDM. The proposed MFDM generates a finite number of band-limited multivariate FIBFs (MFIBFs). The MFDM preserves some intrinsic physical properties of the multivariate data, such as scale alignment, trend and instantaneous frequency. The proposed methods provide a time-frequency-energy (TFE) distribution that reveals the intrinsic structure of a data. Numerical computations and simulations have been carried out and comparison is made with the empirical mode decomposition algorithms.

  3. The physiology analysis system: an integrated approach for warehousing, management and analysis of time-series physiology data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, Thomas M; Bawa, Gagandeep; Kumar, Kamal; Reifman, Jaques

    2007-04-01

    The physiology analysis system (PAS) was developed as a resource to support the efficient warehousing, management, and analysis of physiology data, particularly, continuous time-series data that may be extensive, of variable quality, and distributed across many files. The PAS incorporates time-series data collected by many types of data-acquisition devices, and it is designed to free users from data management burdens. This Web-based system allows both discrete (attribute) and time-series (ordered) data to be manipulated, visualized, and analyzed via a client's Web browser. All processes occur on a server, so that the client does not have to download data or any application programs, and the PAS is independent of the client's computer operating system. The PAS contains a library of functions, written in different computer languages that the client can add to and use to perform specific data operations. Functions from the library are sequentially inserted into a function chain-based logical structure to construct sophisticated data operators from simple function building blocks, affording ad hoc query and analysis of time-series data. These features support advanced mining of physiology data.

  4. Trend Estimation and Regression Analysis in Climatological Time Series: An Application of Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visser, H.; Molenaar, J.

    1995-05-01

    The detection of trends in climatological data has become central to the discussion on climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. To prove detection, a method is needed (i) to make inferences on significant rises or declines in trends, (ii) to take into account natural variability in climate series, and (iii) to compare output from GCMs with the trends in observed climate data. To meet these requirements, flexible mathematical tools are needed. A structural time series model is proposed with which a stochastic trend, a deterministic trend, and regression coefficients can be estimated simultaneously. The stochastic trend component is described using the class of ARIMA models. The regression component is assumed to be linear. However, the regression coefficients corresponding with the explanatory variables may be time dependent to validate this assumption. The mathematical technique used to estimate this trend-regression model is the Kaiman filter. The main features of the filter are discussed.Examples of trend estimation are given using annual mean temperatures at a single station in the Netherlands (1706-1990) and annual mean temperatures at Northern Hemisphere land stations (1851-1990). The inclusion of explanatory variables is shown by regressing the latter temperature series on four variables: Southern Oscillation index (SOI), volcanic dust index (VDI), sunspot numbers (SSN), and a simulated temperature signal, induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHG). In all analyses, the influence of SSN on global temperatures is found to be negligible. The correlations between temperatures and SOI and VDI appear to be negative. For SOI, this correlation is significant, but for VDI it is not, probably because of a lack of volcanic eruptions during the sample period. The relation between temperatures and GHG is positive, which is in agreement with the hypothesis of a warming climate because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The prediction performance of

  5. Performance analysis of job scheduling policies in parallel supercomputing environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Naik, V.K.; Squillante, M.S. [IBM T.J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY (United States); Setia, S.K. [George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA (United States). Dept. of Computer Science

    1993-12-31

    In this paper the authors analyze three general classes of scheduling policies under a workload typical of largescale scientific computing. These policies differ in the manner in which processors are partitioned among the jobs as well as the way in which jobs are prioritized for execution on the partitions. Their results indicate that existing static schemes do not perform well under varying workloads. Adaptive policies tend to make better scheduling decisions, but their ability to adjust to workload changes is limited. Dynamic partitioning policies, on the other hand, yield the best performance and can be tuned to provide desired performance differences among jobs with varying resource demands.

  6. Time series analysis as input for clinical predictive modeling: modeling cardiac arrest in a pediatric ICU.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Curtis E; Turley, James P

    2011-10-24

    Thousands of children experience cardiac arrest events every year in pediatric intensive care units. Most of these children die. Cardiac arrest prediction tools are used as part of medical emergency team evaluations to identify patients in standard hospital beds that are at high risk for cardiac arrest. There are no models to predict cardiac arrest in pediatric intensive care units though, where the risk of an arrest is 10 times higher than for standard hospital beds. Current tools are based on a multivariable approach that does not characterize deterioration, which often precedes cardiac arrests. Characterizing deterioration requires a time series approach. The purpose of this study is to propose a method that will allow for time series data to be used in clinical prediction models. Successful implementation of these methods has the potential to bring arrest prediction to the pediatric intensive care environment, possibly allowing for interventions that can save lives and prevent disabilities. We reviewed prediction models from nonclinical domains that employ time series data, and identified the steps that are necessary for building predictive models using time series clinical data. We illustrate the method by applying it to the specific case of building a predictive model for cardiac arrest in a pediatric intensive care unit. Time course analysis studies from genomic analysis provided a modeling template that was compatible with the steps required to develop a model from clinical time series data. The steps include: 1) selecting candidate variables; 2) specifying measurement parameters; 3) defining data format; 4) defining time window duration and resolution; 5) calculating latent variables for candidate variables not directly measured; 6) calculating time series features as latent variables; 7) creating data subsets to measure model performance effects attributable to various classes of candidate variables; 8) reducing the number of candidate features; 9

  7. Early detection of metabolic and energy disorders by thermal time series stochastic complexity analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lutaif, N.A. [Departamento de Clínica Médica, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, SP (Brazil); Palazzo, R. Jr [Departamento de Telemática, Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e Computação, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, SP (Brazil); Gontijo, J.A.R. [Departamento de Clínica Médica, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, SP (Brazil)

    2014-01-17

    Maintenance of thermal homeostasis in rats fed a high-fat diet (HFD) is associated with changes in their thermal balance. The thermodynamic relationship between heat dissipation and energy storage is altered by the ingestion of high-energy diet content. Observation of thermal registers of core temperature behavior, in humans and rodents, permits identification of some characteristics of time series, such as autoreference and stationarity that fit adequately to a stochastic analysis. To identify this change, we used, for the first time, a stochastic autoregressive model, the concepts of which match those associated with physiological systems involved and applied in male HFD rats compared with their appropriate standard food intake age-matched male controls (n=7 per group). By analyzing a recorded temperature time series, we were able to identify when thermal homeostasis would be affected by a new diet. The autoregressive time series model (AR model) was used to predict the occurrence of thermal homeostasis, and this model proved to be very effective in distinguishing such a physiological disorder. Thus, we infer from the results of our study that maximum entropy distribution as a means for stochastic characterization of temperature time series registers may be established as an important and early tool to aid in the diagnosis and prevention of metabolic diseases due to their ability to detect small variations in thermal profile.

  8. Early detection of metabolic and energy disorders by thermal time series stochastic complexity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lutaif, N.A.; Palazzo, R. Jr; Gontijo, J.A.R.

    2014-01-01

    Maintenance of thermal homeostasis in rats fed a high-fat diet (HFD) is associated with changes in their thermal balance. The thermodynamic relationship between heat dissipation and energy storage is altered by the ingestion of high-energy diet content. Observation of thermal registers of core temperature behavior, in humans and rodents, permits identification of some characteristics of time series, such as autoreference and stationarity that fit adequately to a stochastic analysis. To identify this change, we used, for the first time, a stochastic autoregressive model, the concepts of which match those associated with physiological systems involved and applied in male HFD rats compared with their appropriate standard food intake age-matched male controls (n=7 per group). By analyzing a recorded temperature time series, we were able to identify when thermal homeostasis would be affected by a new diet. The autoregressive time series model (AR model) was used to predict the occurrence of thermal homeostasis, and this model proved to be very effective in distinguishing such a physiological disorder. Thus, we infer from the results of our study that maximum entropy distribution as a means for stochastic characterization of temperature time series registers may be established as an important and early tool to aid in the diagnosis and prevention of metabolic diseases due to their ability to detect small variations in thermal profile

  9. Time series analysis of infrared satellite data for detecting thermal anomalies: a hybrid approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koeppen, W. C.; Pilger, E.; Wright, R.

    2011-07-01

    We developed and tested an automated algorithm that analyzes thermal infrared satellite time series data to detect and quantify the excess energy radiated from thermal anomalies such as active volcanoes. Our algorithm enhances the previously developed MODVOLC approach, a simple point operation, by adding a more complex time series component based on the methods of the Robust Satellite Techniques (RST) algorithm. Using test sites at Anatahan and Kīlauea volcanoes, the hybrid time series approach detected ~15% more thermal anomalies than MODVOLC with very few, if any, known false detections. We also tested gas flares in the Cantarell oil field in the Gulf of Mexico as an end-member scenario representing very persistent thermal anomalies. At Cantarell, the hybrid algorithm showed only a slight improvement, but it did identify flares that were undetected by MODVOLC. We estimate that at least 80 MODIS images for each calendar month are required to create good reference images necessary for the time series analysis of the hybrid algorithm. The improved performance of the new algorithm over MODVOLC will result in the detection of low temperature thermal anomalies that will be useful in improving our ability to document Earth's volcanic eruptions, as well as detecting low temperature thermal precursors to larger eruptions.

  10. Spatial analysis of precipitation time series over the Upper Indus Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latif, Yasir; Yaoming, Ma; Yaseen, Muhammad

    2018-01-01

    The upper Indus basin (UIB) holds one of the most substantial river systems in the world, contributing roughly half of the available surface water in Pakistan. This water provides necessary support for agriculture, domestic consumption, and hydropower generation; all critical for a stable economy in Pakistan. This study has identified trends, analyzed variability, and assessed changes in both annual and seasonal precipitation during four time series, identified herein as: (first) 1961-2013, (second) 1971-2013, (third) 1981-2013, and (fourth) 1991-2013, over the UIB. This study investigated spatial characteristics of the precipitation time series over 15 weather stations and provides strong evidence of annual precipitation by determining significant trends at 6 stations (Astore, Chilas, Dir, Drosh, Gupis, and Kakul) out of the 15 studied stations, revealing a significant negative trend during the fourth time series. Our study also showed significantly increased precipitation at Bunji, Chitral, and Skardu, whereas such trends at the rest of the stations appear insignificant. Moreover, our study found that seasonal precipitation decreased at some locations (at a high level of significance), as well as periods of scarce precipitation during all four seasons. The observed decreases in precipitation appear stronger and more significant in autumn; having 10 stations exhibiting decreasing precipitation during the fourth time series, with respect to time and space. Furthermore, the observed decreases in precipitation appear robust and more significant for regions at high elevation (>1300 m). This analysis concludes that decreasing precipitation dominated the UIB, both temporally and spatially including in the higher areas.

  11. Analysis of Implementation The Policy on Malaria Elimination in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Betty Roosihermiatie

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: As a tropic country Indonesia still faces malaria problems. In Asean, indonesia is one of three countries with the highest malaria morbidity. In 2007, 396 (80% of 495 districts/municipalities in indonesia are malaria. In 2009 the government issued a decree of the minister of health No 293 on malaria elimination. The study aimed to analyze the implementation decree of Ministry of Health No. 293/2009 on malaria elimination. Methods: It was a descriptive study. The study was conducted in 4 provinces, and 4 districts based on malaria elimination stages as in Bali province and Karangasem district, Riau islands province and Bintan district, West Nusa Tenggara province and west Lombok district, and Maluku province and South Halmahera district. The stakeholders were Heads and malaria programmers at province/district Health Offices and the related programs. Data were collected by focus group discussion and secondary data were taken. Data were collected by focus group discussion and secondary data. Analysis for Ministry of Health decree No.293 year 2009 on 1 Comphrehend, 2 Implementation, and, 3 Comittment, 4 Innovation intervension to support malaria elimination, 5 Sustainability of activity community empowerment, 6 Proportion of budget. Results: showed there was district that had not issued local policy on malaria elimination, the implementation with comittment especially that health centers in areas under study corfi rm diagnose by laboratory examination and malaria treatment by Artemisin Combined Therapy (ACT, although there were still treatment to clinical malaria, innovation activities were of bersifat local spesifi c, and reward for Juru Malaria Desa or malaria cadre to increase malaria suspect case detection, and with district budget for malaria program ranged 0,95-5,6% of the total budget. Recomendations: It suggested to advocate all malaria endemic areas to issue local policy on malaria elimination, decide intervension of the

  12. Probabilistic economic analysis of green roof benefits for policy design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, C.; Adriaens, P.; Talbot, B.

    2006-01-01

    The installation costs of green roofs continue to deter widespread use of green roof technology. Analyses of the boundary conditions for the cost differential between a green roof and a conventional roof are usually compared to environmental benefits such as storm water reduction and building energy savings. However, evidence is emerging that green roofs may play a role in urban air quality improvement. This paper discussed a methodology for developing probabilistic ranges of benefits and cost analyses. A probabilistic analysis was conducted to prepare a generalized cost-benefit analysis for application to a range of green roof projects. Environmental benefits of roof greening were quantified on a per unit surface area to assess environmental impact at the building scale. Parameters included conventional and green roof installation costs; storm water fees and fee reductions for green roofs; energy costs due to heat flux and the resultant savings through the installation of a green roof and the additional economic valuation of the public health benefits due to air pollution mitigation. Results were then integrated into an economic model to determine the length of time required for a return on investment in a green roof, assuming that a traditional roof would require replacement after 20 years. A net present value analysis was performed for an average-sized university roof. Results of the study showed that a valuation of environmental benefits can reduce the time required for a return on investment in a moderately priced green roof. While reduced installation costs reduced the time required for a return on investment, optimizing the green roof system for maximum environmental benefit had a greater potential to provide a higher return. It was concluded that the benefit of improved air quality should not be ignored by green roof policy-makers as a valuation tool. 10 refs., 3 tabs., 1 fig

  13. Universal Health Insurance Coverage in Vietnam: A Stakeholder Analysis From Policy Proposal (1989) to Implementation (2014).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoang, Chi K; Hill, Peter; Nguyen, Huong T

    In 1989, health insurance (HI) was introduced in Vietnam and began to be implemented in 1992. There was limited progress until the 2014 Law on HI that was revised with the aim of universal health insurance coverage (UHIC) by 2020. This article explores stakeholder roles and positions from the initial introduction of HI to the implementation of the Master Plan accelerating UHIC. To better understand the influence of stakeholders in accelerating UHIC to achieve equity in health care. Using a qualitative study design, we conducted content analysis of HI-related documents and interviewed social security and health system key informants, government representatives, and community stakeholders to determine their positions and influence on UHIC. Our findings demonstrate different levels of support of stakeholders that influence in the HI formulation and implementation, from opposition when HI was first introduced in 1989 to collaboration of stakeholders from 2013 when the Master Plan for UHIC was implemented. Despite an initial failure to secure the support of the Parliament for a Law on HI, a subsequent series of alternative legislative strategies brought limited increases in HI coverage. With government financial subsidization, the involvement of multiple stakeholders, political commitment, and flexible working mechanisms among stakeholders have remained important, with an increasing recognition that HI is not only a technical aspect of the health system but also a broader socioeconomic and governance issue. The different levels of power and influence among stakeholders, together with their commercial and political interests and their different perceptions of HI, have influenced stakeholders' support or opposition to HI policies. Despite high-level policy support, stakeholders' positions may vary, depending on their perceptions of the policy implications. A shift in government stakeholder positions, especially at the provincial level, has been necessary to accelerate

  14. Spectral analysis of uneven time series of geological variables; Analisis espectral de series temporales de variables geologicas con muestreo irregular

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pardo-Iguzquiza, E.; Rodriguez-Tovar, F. J.

    2013-06-01

    In geosciences the sampling of a time series tends to afford uneven results, sometimes because the sampling itself is random or because of hiatuses or even completely missing data or due to difficulties involved in the conversion of data from a spatial to a time scale when the sedimentation rate was not constant. Whatever the case, the best solution does not lie in interpolation but rather in resorting to a method that deals with the irregular data. We show here how the use of the smoothed Lomb-Scargle periodogram is both a practical and efficient choice. We describe the effects on the estimated power spectrum of the type of irregular sampling, the number of data, interpolation, and the presence of drift. We propose the permutation test as being an efficient way of calculating statistical confidence levels. By applying the Lomb-Scargle periodogram to a synthetic series with a known spectral content we are able to confirm the validity of this method in the face of the difficulties mentioned above. A case study with real data, including hiatuses, representing the thickness of the annual banding in a stalagmite, is chosen to demonstrate an application using the statistical and physical interpretation of spectral peaks. (Author)

  15. Studies in astronomical time series analysis. I - Modeling random processes in the time domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scargle, J. D.

    1981-01-01

    Several random process models in the time domain are defined and discussed. Attention is given to the moving average model, the autoregressive model, and relationships between and combinations of these models. Consideration is then given to methods for investigating pulse structure, procedures of model construction, computational methods, and numerical experiments. A FORTRAN algorithm of time series analysis has been developed which is relatively stable numerically. Results of test cases are given to study the effect of adding noise and of different distributions for the pulse amplitudes. A preliminary analysis of the light curve of the quasar 3C 272 is considered as an example.

  16. The Real-time Frequency Spectrum Analysis of Neutron Pulse Signal Series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang Yuelin; Ren Yong; Wei Biao; Feng Peng; Mi Deling; Pan Yingjun; Li Jiansheng; Ye Cenming

    2009-01-01

    The frequency spectrum analysis of neutron pulse signal is a very important method in nuclear stochastic signal processing Focused on the special '0' and '1' of neutron pulse signal series, this paper proposes new rotation-table and realizes a real-time frequency spectrum algorithm under 1G Hz sample rate based on PC with add, address and SSE. The numerical experimental results show that under the count rate of 3X10 6 s -1 , this algorithm is superior to FFTW in time-consumption and can meet the real-time requirement of frequency spectrum analysis. (authors)

  17. Developing effective policy strategies to retain health workers in rural Bangladesh: a policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rawal, Lal B; Joarder, Taufique; Islam, Sheikh Md Shariful; Uddin, Aftab; Ahmed, Syed Masud

    2015-05-20

    Retention of human resources for health (HRH), particularly physicians and nurses in rural and remote areas, is a major problem in Bangladesh. We reviewed relevant policies and provisions in relation to HRH aiming to develop appropriate rural retention strategies in Bangladesh. We conducted a document review, thorough search and review of relevant literature published from 1971 through May 2013, key informant interviews with policy elites (health policy makers, managers, researchers, etc.), and a roundtable discussion with key stakeholders and policy makers. We used the World Health Organization's (WHO's) guidelines as an analytical matrix to examine the rural retention policies under 4 domains, i) educational, ii) regulatory, iii) financial, and iv) professional and personal development, and 16 sub-domains. Over the past four decades, Bangladesh has developed and implemented a number of health-related policies and provisions concerning retention of HRH. The district quota system in admissions is in practice to improve geographical representation of the students. Students of special background including children of freedom fighters and tribal population have allocated quotas. In private medical and nursing schools, at least 5% of seats are allocated for scholarships. Medical education has a provision for clinical rotation in rural health facilities. Further, in the public sector, every newly recruited medical doctor must serve at least 2 years at the upazila level. To encourage serving in hard-to-reach areas, particularly in three Hill Tract districts of Chittagong division, the government provides an additional 33% of the basic salary, but not exceeding US$ 38 per month. This amount is not attractive enough, and such provision is absent for those working in other rural areas. Although the government has career development and promotion plans for doctors and nurses, these plans are often not clearly specified and not implemented effectively. The government is

  18. On the Impact of a Quadratic Acceleration Term in the Analysis of Position Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogusz, Janusz; Klos, Anna; Bos, Machiel Simon; Hunegnaw, Addisu; Teferle, Felix Norman

    2016-04-01

    The analysis of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time series generally assumes that each of the coordinate component series is described by the sum of a linear rate (velocity) and various periodic terms. The residuals, the deviations between the fitted model and the observations, are then a measure of the epoch-to-epoch scatter and have been used for the analysis of the stochastic character (noise) of the time series. Often the parameters of interest in GNSS position time series are the velocities and their associated uncertainties, which have to be determined with the highest reliability. It is clear that not all GNSS position time series follow this simple linear behaviour. Therefore, we have added an acceleration term in the form of a quadratic polynomial function to the model in order to better describe the non-linear motion in the position time series. This non-linear motion could be a response to purely geophysical processes, for example, elastic rebound of the Earth's crust due to ice mass loss in Greenland, artefacts due to deficiencies in bias mitigation models, for example, of the GNSS satellite and receiver antenna phase centres, or any combination thereof. In this study we have simulated 20 time series with different stochastic characteristics such as white, flicker or random walk noise of length of 23 years. The noise amplitude was assumed at 1 mm/y-/4. Then, we added the deterministic part consisting of a linear trend of 20 mm/y (that represents the averaged horizontal velocity) and accelerations ranging from minus 0.6 to plus 0.6 mm/y2. For all these data we estimated the noise parameters with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) using the Hector software package without taken into account the non-linear term. In this way we set the benchmark to then investigate how the noise properties and velocity uncertainty may be affected by any un-modelled, non-linear term. The velocities and their uncertainties versus the accelerations for

  19. Analysis of Ethiopia's national ICT policy and strategy: insights into ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The trend shows that the national ICT policy need to focus broadly on core and emerging issues that are crucial for ICT ecosystem such as infrastructure, services, applications, universal access, cyber security, social media, and users. Broadband infrastructure development is considered as key intervention in the policy.

  20. Analysis of Spanish Policies for the Integration of Immigrant Schoolchildren

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Usarralde, María Jesús; Yanes-Cabrera, Cristina; Llevot-Calvet, Nuria

    2016-01-01

    The Organic Law on the Improvement of the National Education Quality ("Ley Orgánica de Reforma de la Calidad Educativa") readdressed one of the most significant educational issues: educational policies related to immigrant students. Therefore, this is an appropriate moment to evaluate these types of policies in three singular Spanish…

  1. Avian Influenza Policy Analysis | CRDI - Centre de recherches pour ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This project aims to enhance understanding of national policy-making process with respect to two critical issues: poultry vaccination and antiviral drugs for humans. Researchers will examine the content, context and process of antiviral drug and poultry vaccination policies in Indonesia, Thailand and Viet Nam, comparing ...

  2. Analysis of National Policies for Entrepreneurship Education in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiaozhou

    2012-01-01

    This article reviews major national policies and strategies adopted by the Chinese central government to promote entrepreneurship education and also describes the current social and economic background to reveal the motives of entrepreneurship education in mainland China. The core of this article sums up the content of national policies on…

  3. Critical analysis of the policy practice of mathematics education in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ensuring a smooth mathematics education programme requires the formulation and implementation of appropriate instructional policies. This study is a survey of some practices of the instructional policies and their influence on mathematics education. Completed Basic School Annual Census (CBSAC) forms and ...

  4. Analysis of incentivation policies for renewable-generated electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calisi, M.; Mattucci, A.; Cicolin, D.

    2008-01-01

    Subsidization policies for renewable energy sources can give a positive help in order to achieve higher security of supply and better ecosystem preservation. Their effectiveness can be improved with new application mechanisms and supporting them with policies to foster local acceptability, stability of rules and the growth of innovative national industries [it

  5. Early Educational Provision--Emphasised in Education Policy Reforms in Norway? An Analysis of Education Policy Documents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjørnsrud, Halvor; Nilsen, Sven

    2014-01-01

    The article analyses how the intentions of early provision in Norwegian schools have been expressed in the education policy reforms in Norway from the 1970s to the present day. The first area deals with the intentions that most explicitly cover early provision; prevention, early detection and intervention. The second area of analysis relates to…

  6. Brief analysis and use for reference on nuclear energy policies in US

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Chenghui

    2007-01-01

    This paper conducts a study on new round of nuclear energy renaissance program in US. During this program progressive evolution, American government plays an essential role, among others, to promote development of nuclear energy, a series of favorable policies and suitable measures were carried out by the government, which involved to relating policies researching and stipulating, finance, revenue, and insurance etc. The aim of those policies and measures was clearly to assure the achievement of the nuclear energy development program in the future. Upon the basis of this study, it shows us a comparison between China and US for their respective nuclear energy policies and some recommendations for Chinese nuclear energy policies are presented finally. (author)

  7. Economic analysis of Brazilian policies for energy efficient electric motors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrade, Cássio Tersandro de Castro; Pontes, Ricardo Silva Thé

    2017-01-01

    Brazil is leading several energy efficiency initiatives and has ambitious goals for 2030, according to the Brazilian National Energy Plan 2030. One of the main initiatives is the minimum efficiency performance standards (MEPS) program for energy-driven equipment and the electric motors appear as the most significant one (49% share of the total electricity consumption). The MEPS levels set new grades for efficiency, and then manufacturers and consumers have to conform to the new products and costs. Policy makers have to economically assess the effects of these MEPS in order to maintain the market stability. Since the benefits of this program come from future energy savings, this cost-effective analysis has to consider the parameters uncertainty and the results should reinforce the market players’ confidence. Thus, the goal of this work is, first, to analyze the economic viability of the MEPS transitions in Brazil considering the uncertainty of the parameters involved and then, to estimate the effects of this program on the energy savings goals for 2030. At the end, we also verify whether this investment in energy efficiency is competitive with other forms of investments in energy. - Highlights: • A cost-effectiveness method with uncertainty for efficiency program is presented. • Savings from electric motors MEPS program makes the 2030 Brazilian goals possible. • Electric motors MEPS program cost-effectiveness in Brazil is confirmed. • Saved energy cost from efficiency improvement is a competitive energy investment.

  8. Analysis of energy end-use efficiency policy in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collado, Rocío Román; Díaz, María Teresa Sanz

    2017-01-01

    The implementation of saving measures and energy efficiency entails the need to evaluate achievements in terms of energy saving and spending. This paper aims at analysing the effectiveness and economic efficiency of energy saving measures implemented in the Energy Savings and Efficiency Action Plan (2008–2012) (EAP4+) in Spain for 2010. The lack of assessment related to energy savings achieved and public spending allocated by the EAP4+ justifies the need of this analysis. The results show that the transport and building sectors seem to be the most important, from the energy efficiency perspective. Although they did not reach the direct energy savings that were expected, there is scope for reduction with the appropriate energy measures. For the effectiveness indicator, the best performance are achieved by public service, agricultural and fisheries and building sectors, while in terms of energy efficiency per monetary unit, the best results are achieved by transport, industry and agriculture sectors. Authors conclude that it is necessary that central, regional and local administrations will get involved, in order to get better estimates of the energy savings achieved and thus to affect the design of future energy efficiency measures at the lowest possible cost to the citizens. - Highlights: • Energy end-use efficiency policy is analysed in terms of energy savings and spending. • The energy savings achieved by some measures are not always provided. • The total energy savings achieved by transport and building sectors are large. • Different levels of administration should get involved in estimating energy savings.

  9. Barriers to breastfeeding in Lebanon: A policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akik, Chaza; Ghattas, Hala; Filteau, Suzanne; Knai, Cecile

    2017-08-01

    Although the issue of breastfeeding in Lebanon has risen on the political agenda, the country does not meet international recommendations for early breastfeeding practices. This study analysed barriers to dissemination, implementation, and enforcement of key policies to improve early breastfeeding practices. We conducted interviews with stakeholders in breastfeeding policy in Lebanon and used a framework approach for analysing data. We found a disconnect between policy endorsement and translation on the ground, weak engagement of professional associations and governmental institutions, undue influence by the breast milk substitute industry, and competing priorities-most notably the current refugee crisis. This study highlights the potential policy opportunities to counter these barriers and points to the role of international organisations and grassroots advocacy in pushing, monitoring, and implementing policies that protect breastfeeding, where government capacity is limited, and the private sector is strong.

  10. Analysis of nuclear issue and development of policy alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Won, Byungchool; Lee, Youngjoon; Yun, Sungwon; Yun, Keehwan; Ko, Wonil

    2012-08-01

    ? Promoted amicably passing a resolution on a general meeting of Atomic Energy Promotion Commission through the preliminary review and opinion gathering ? Mutual understanding and forming a social consensus on nuclear related issues through R and D reporting about the SMART, Decommission and Dis, Future Nuclear System etc Ο Promoted strengthening the work related to the nuclear policy through discovering the 8 policy initiatives prioritized Ο Analyzed the policy process as well as previous research results related to spent fuel for establishment of spent-fuel policy and presented the methods for legislation Ο Suggested the establishment and multi-step implementation strategies of 'Nuclear educational hurb center' Ο Germany, Switzerland, Belgium returned to their former phase-out strategies, except for these three countries, did not change nuclear promotion policies Ο Democratic United Party is currently taking the opposite stance on NPP but it is necessary to make an effort to analyze current domestic energy circumstances on objective and rational grounds

  11. Development of indicators of vegetation recovery based on time series analysis of SPOT Vegetation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lhermitte, S.; Tips, M.; Verbesselt, J.; Jonckheere, I.; Van Aardt, J.; Coppin, Pol

    2005-10-01

    Large-scale wild fires have direct impacts on natural ecosystems and play a major role in the vegetation ecology and carbon budget. Accurate methods for describing post-fire development of vegetation are therefore essential for the understanding and monitoring of terrestrial ecosystems. Time series analysis of satellite imagery offers the potential to quantify these parameters with spatial and temporal accuracy. Current research focuses on the potential of time series analysis of SPOT Vegetation S10 data (1999-2001) to quantify the vegetation recovery of large-scale burns detected in the framework of GBA2000. The objective of this study was to provide quantitative estimates of the spatio-temporal variation of vegetation recovery based on remote sensing indicators. Southern Africa was used as a pilot study area, given the availability of ground and satellite data. An automated technique was developed to extract consistent indicators of vegetation recovery from the SPOT-VGT time series. Reference areas were used to quantify the vegetation regrowth by means of Regeneration Indices (RI). Two kinds of recovery indicators (time and value- based) were tested for RI's of NDVI, SR, SAVI, NDWI, and pure band information. The effects of vegetation structure and temporal fire regime features on the recovery indicators were subsequently analyzed. Statistical analyses were conducted to assess whether the recovery indicators were different for different vegetation types and dependent on timing of the burning season. Results highlighted the importance of appropriate reference areas and the importance of correct normalization of the SPOT-VGT data.

  12. Dynamic Forecasting Conditional Probability of Bombing Attacks Based on Time-Series and Intervention Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shuying; Zhuang, Jun; Shen, Shifei

    2017-07-01

    In recent years, various types of terrorist attacks occurred, causing worldwide catastrophes. According to the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), among all attack tactics, bombing attacks happened most frequently, followed by armed assaults. In this article, a model for analyzing and forecasting the conditional probability of bombing attacks (CPBAs) based on time-series methods is developed. In addition, intervention analysis is used to analyze the sudden increase in the time-series process. The results show that the CPBA increased dramatically at the end of 2011. During that time, the CPBA increased by 16.0% in a two-month period to reach the peak value, but still stays 9.0% greater than the predicted level after the temporary effect gradually decays. By contrast, no significant fluctuation can be found in the conditional probability process of armed assault. It can be inferred that some social unrest, such as America's troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq, could have led to the increase of the CPBA in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan. The integrated time-series and intervention model is used to forecast the monthly CPBA in 2014 and through 2064. The average relative error compared with the real data in 2014 is 3.5%. The model is also applied to the total number of attacks recorded by the GTD between 2004 and 2014. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Comparative performance analysis of shunt and series passive filter for LED lamp

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarwono, Edi; Facta, Mochammad; Handoko, Susatyo

    2018-03-01

    Light Emitting Diode lamp or LED lamp nowadays is widely used by consumers as a new innovation in the lighting technologies due to its energy saving for low power consumption lamps for brighter light intensity. How ever, the LED lamp produce an electric pollutant known as harmonics. The harmonics is generated by rectifier as part of LED lamp circuit. The present of harmonics in current or voltage has made the source waveform from the grid is distorted. This distortion may cause inacurrate measurement, mall function, and excessive heating for any element at the grid. This paper present an analysis work of shunt and series filters to suppress the harmonics generated by the LED lamp circuit. The work was initiated by conducting several tests to investigate the harmonic content of voltage and currents. The measurements in this work were carried out by using HIOKI Power Quality Analyzer 3197. The measurement results showed that the harmonics current of tested LED lamps were above the limit of IEEE standard 519-2014. Based on the measurement results shunt and series filters were constructed as low pass filters. The bode analysis were appled during construction and prediction of the filters performance. Based on experimental results, the application of shunt filter at input side of LED lamp has reduced THD current up to 88%. On the other hand, the series filter has significantly reduced THD current up to 92%.

  14. Empirical mode decomposition and long-range correlation analysis of sunspot time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Yu; Leung, Yee

    2010-01-01

    Sunspots, which are the best known and most variable features of the solar surface, affect our planet in many ways. The number of sunspots during a period of time is highly variable and arouses strong research interest. When multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) is employed to study the fractal properties and long-range correlation of the sunspot series, some spurious crossover points might appear because of the periodic and quasi-periodic trends in the series. However many cycles of solar activities can be reflected by the sunspot time series. The 11-year cycle is perhaps the most famous cycle of the sunspot activity. These cycles pose problems for the investigation of the scaling behavior of sunspot time series. Using different methods to handle the 11-year cycle generally creates totally different results. Using MF-DFA, Movahed and co-workers employed Fourier truncation to deal with the 11-year cycle and found that the series is long-range anti-correlated with a Hurst exponent, H, of about 0.12. However, Hu and co-workers proposed an adaptive detrending method for the MF-DFA and discovered long-range correlation characterized by H≈0.74. In an attempt to get to the bottom of the problem in the present paper, empirical mode decomposition (EMD), a data-driven adaptive method, is applied to first extract the components with different dominant frequencies. MF-DFA is then employed to study the long-range correlation of the sunspot time series under the influence of these components. On removing the effects of these periods, the natural long-range correlation of the sunspot time series can be revealed. With the removal of the 11-year cycle, a crossover point located at around 60 months is discovered to be a reasonable point separating two different time scale ranges, H≈0.72 and H≈1.49. And on removing all cycles longer than 11 years, we have H≈0.69 and H≈0.28. The three cycle-removing methods—Fourier truncation, adaptive detrending and the

  15. Inquiry into Turkey's Educational Technology, Governance, Situational Educational Policy: An Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolu, Hüseyin

    2018-01-01

    Investigating the sociology of educational technology can be approached through a series of deliberations based on the interaction between Free/Libre Open Source Software (FLOSS) and Proprietary Close Source Software (PCSS). This article consults public policy discourses of the Fatih project, which is the current educational technology project in…

  16. Clean Energy Policy Analysis: Impact Analysis of Potential Clean Energy Policy Options for the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busche, S.; Doris, E.; Braccio, R.; Lippert, D.; Finch, P.; O' Toole, D.; Fetter, J.

    2010-04-01

    This report provides detailed analyses of 21 clean energy policy options considered by the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative working groups for recommendation to the 2010 Hawaii State Legislature. The report considers the impact each policy may have on ratepayers, businesses, and the state in terms of energy saved, clean energy generated, and the financial costs and benefits. The analyses provide insight into the possible impacts, both qualitative and quantitative, that these policies may have in Hawaii based on the experience with these policies elsewhere. As much as possible, the analyses incorporate Hawaii-specific context to reflect the many unique aspects of energy use in the State of Hawaii.

  17. From demonstration to deployment: An economic analysis of support policies for carbon capture and storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krahé, Max; Heidug, Wolf; Ward, John; Smale, Robin

    2013-01-01

    This paper argues that an integrated policy architecture consisting of multiple policy phases and economic instruments is needed to support the development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) from its present demonstration phase to full-scale deployment. Building on an analysis of the different types of policy instruments to correct market failures specific to CCS in its various stages of development, we suggest a way to combine these into an integrated policy architecture. This policy architecture adapts to the need of a maturing technology, meets the requirement of policymakers to maintain flexibility to respond to changing circumstances while providing investors with the policy certainty that is needed to encourage private sector investment. This combination of flexibility and predictability is achieved through the use of ‘policy gateways’ which explicitly define rules and criteria for when and how policy settings will change. Our findings extend to bioenergy-based CCS applications (BECCS), which could potentially achieve negative emissions. We argue that within a framework of correcting the carbon externality, the added environmental benefits of BECCS should be reflected in an extra incentive. - Highlights: • Sensible aim of current climate policy: secure option of future CCS deployment. • But policy makers require flexibility while private investors require predictability. • Integrating CCS policy into an overall policy architecture can overcome this antinomy. • We describe the key features of a good policy architecture and give an example

  18. Impact Analysis of Air Pollutant Emission Policies on Thermal Coal Supply Chain Enterprises in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaopeng Guo

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Spurred by the increasingly serious air pollution problem, the Chinese government has launched a series of policies to put forward specific measures of power structure adjustment and the control objectives of air pollution and coal consumption. Other policies pointed out that the coal resources regional blockades will be broken by improving transportation networks and constructing new logistics nodes. Thermal power takes the largest part of China’s total installed power generation capacity, so these policies will undoubtedly impact thermal coal supply chain member enterprises. Based on the actual situation in China, this paper figures out how the member enterprises adjust their business decisions to satisfy the requirements of air pollution prevention and control policies by establishing system dynamic models of policy impact transfer. These dynamic analyses can help coal enterprises and thermal power enterprises do strategic environmental assessments and find directions of sustainable development. Furthermore, the policy simulated results of this paper provide the Chinese government with suggestions for policy-making to make sure that the energy conservation and emission reduction policies and sustainable energy policies can work more efficiently.

  19. Detrended fluctuation analysis based on higher-order moments of financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Yue; Shang, Pengjian

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, a generalized method of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) is proposed as a new measure to assess the complexity of a complex dynamical system such as stock market. We extend DFA and local scaling DFA to higher moments such as skewness and kurtosis (labeled SMDFA and KMDFA), so as to investigate the volatility scaling property of financial time series. Simulations are conducted over synthetic and financial data for providing the comparative study. We further report the results of volatility behaviors in three American countries, three Chinese and three European stock markets by using DFA and LSDFA method based on higher moments. They demonstrate the dynamics behaviors of time series in different aspects, which can quantify the changes of complexity for stock market data and provide us with more meaningful information than single exponent. And the results reveal some higher moments volatility and higher moments multiscale volatility details that cannot be obtained using the traditional DFA method.

  20. Time series analysis of pressure fluctuation in gas-solid fluidized beds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Alberto S. Felipe

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the present work was to study the differentiation of states of typical fluidization (single bubble, multiple bubble and slugging in a gas-solid fluidized bed, using spectral analysis of pressure fluctuation time series. The effects of the method of measuring (differential and absolute pressure fluctuations and the axial position of the probes in the fluidization column on the identification of each of the regimes studied were evaluated. Fast Fourier Transform (FFT was the mathematic tool used to analysing the data of pressure fluctuations, which expresses the behavior of a time series in the frequency domain. Results indicated that the plenum chamber was a place for reliable measurement and that care should be taken in measurement in the dense phase. The method allowed fluid dynamic regimes to be differentiated by their dominant frequency characteristics.

  1. Analysis of Data from a Series of Events by a Geometric Process Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yeh Lam; Li-xing Zhu; Jennifer S. K. Chan; Qun Liu

    2004-01-01

    Geometric process was first introduced by Lam[10,11]. A stochastic process {Xi, i = 1, 2,…} is called a geometric process (GP) if, for some a > 0, {ai-1Xi, i = 1, 2,…} forms a renewal process. In thispaper, the GP is used to analyze the data from a series of events. A nonparametric method is introduced forthe estimation of the three parameters in the GP. The limiting distributions of the three estimators are studied.Through the analysis of some real data sets, the GP model is compared with other three homogeneous andnonhomogeneous Poisson models. It seems that on average the GP model is the best model among these fourmodels in analyzing the data from a series of events.

  2. The Relative Importance of the Service Sector in the Mexican Economy: A Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Alberto Flores

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We conduct a study of the secondary and tertiary sectors with the goal of highlighting the relative im-portance of services in the Mexican economy. We consider a time series analysis approach designed to identify the stochastic nature of the series, as well as to define their long-run and-short run relationships with Gross Domestic Product (GDP. The results of cointegration tests suggest that, for the most part, activities in the secondary and tertiary sectors share a common trend with GDP. Interestingly, the long-run elasticities of GDP with respect to services are on average larger than those with respect to secondary activities. Common cycle tests results identify the existence of common cycles between GDP and the disaggregated sectors, as well as with manufacturing, commerce, real estate and transportation. In this case, the short-run elasticities of secondary activities are on average larger than those corresponding to services.

  3. Investigation of interfacial wave structure using time-series analysis techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jayanti, S.; Hewitt, G.F.; Cliffe, K.A.

    1990-09-01

    The report presents an investigation into the interfacial structure in horizontal annular flow using spectral and time-series analysis techniques. Film thickness measured using conductance probes shows an interesting transition in wave pattern from a continuous low-frequency wave pattern to an intermittent, high-frequency one. From the autospectral density function of the film thickness, it appears that this transition is caused by the breaking up of long waves into smaller ones. To investigate the possibility of the wave structure being represented as a low order chaotic system, phase portraits of the time series were constructed using the technique developed by Broomhead and co-workers (1986, 1987 and 1989). These showed a banded structure when waves of relatively high frequency were filtered out. Although these results are encouraging, further work is needed to characterise the attractor. (Author)

  4. Causality as a Rigorous Notion and Quantitative Causality Analysis with Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, X. S.

    2017-12-01

    Given two time series, can one faithfully tell, in a rigorous and quantitative way, the cause and effect between them? Here we show that this important and challenging question (one of the major challenges in the science of big data), which is of interest in a wide variety of disciplines, has a positive answer. Particularly, for linear systems, the maximal likelihood estimator of the causality from a series X2 to another series X1, written T2→1, turns out to be concise in form: T2→1 = [C11 C12 C2,d1 — C112 C1,d1] / [C112 C22 — C11C122] where Cij (i,j=1,2) is the sample covariance between Xi and Xj, and Ci,dj the covariance between Xi and ΔXj/Δt, the difference approximation of dXj/dt using the Euler forward scheme. An immediate corollary is that causation implies correlation, but not vice versa, resolving the long-standing debate over causation versus correlation. The above formula has been validated with touchstone series purportedly generated with one-way causality that evades the classical approaches such as Granger causality test and transfer entropy analysis. It has also been applied successfully to the investigation of many real problems. Through a simple analysis with the stock series of IBM and GE, an unusually strong one-way causality is identified from the former to the latter in their early era, revealing to us an old story, which has almost faded into oblivion, about "Seven Dwarfs" competing with a "Giant" for the computer market. Another example presented here regards the cause-effect relation between the two climate modes, El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In general, these modes are mutually causal, but the causality is asymmetric. To El Niño, the information flowing from IOD manifests itself as a propagation of uncertainty from the Indian Ocean. In the third example, an unambiguous one-way causality is found between CO2 and the global mean temperature anomaly. While it is confirmed that CO2 indeed drives the recent global warming

  5. Phase correction and error estimation in InSAR time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Fattahi, H.; Amelung, F.

    2017-12-01

    During the last decade several InSAR time series approaches have been developed in response to the non-idea acquisition strategy of SAR satellites, such as large spatial and temporal baseline with non-regular acquisitions. The small baseline tubes and regular acquisitions of new SAR satellites such as Sentinel-1 allows us to form fully connected networks of interferograms and simplifies the time series analysis into a weighted least square inversion of an over-determined system. Such robust inversion allows us to focus more on the understanding of different components in InSAR time-series and its uncertainties. We present an open-source python-based package for InSAR time series analysis, called PySAR (https://yunjunz.github.io/PySAR/), with unique functionalities for obtaining unbiased ground displacement time-series, geometrical and atmospheric correction of InSAR data and quantifying the InSAR uncertainty. Our implemented strategy contains several features including: 1) improved spatial coverage using coherence-based network of interferograms, 2) unwrapping error correction using phase closure or bridging, 3) tropospheric delay correction using weather models and empirical approaches, 4) DEM error correction, 5) optimal selection of reference date and automatic outlier detection, 6) InSAR uncertainty due to the residual tropospheric delay, decorrelation and residual DEM error, and 7) variance-covariance matrix of final products for geodetic inversion. We demonstrate the performance using SAR datasets acquired by Cosmo-Skymed and TerraSAR-X, Sentinel-1 and ALOS/ALOS-2, with application on the highly non-linear volcanic deformation in Japan and Ecuador (figure 1). Our result shows precursory deformation before the 2015 eruptions of Cotopaxi volcano, with a maximum uplift of 3.4 cm on the western flank (fig. 1b), with a standard deviation of 0.9 cm (fig. 1a), supporting the finding by Morales-Rivera et al. (2017, GRL); and a post-eruptive subsidence on the same

  6. A condition-based maintenance policy with non-periodic inspections for a two-unit series system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castanier, B.; Grall, A.; Berenguer, C.

    2005-01-01

    This paper considers a condition-based maintenance policy for a two-unit deteriorating system. Each unit is subject to gradual deterioration and is monitored by sequential non-periodic inspections. It can be maintained by good as new preventive or corrective replacements. Every inspection or replacement entails a set-up cost and a component-specific unit cost but if actions on the two components are combined, the set-up cost is charged only once. A parametric maintenance decision framework is proposed to coordinate inspection/replacement of the two components and minimize the long-run maintenance cost of the system. A stochastic model is developed on the basis of the semi-regenerative properties of the maintained system state and the associated cost model is used to assess and optimize the performance of the maintenance model. Numerical experiments emphasize the interest of a control of the operation groupings

  7. Radial artery pulse waveform analysis based on curve fitting using discrete Fourier series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Zhixing; Zhang, David; Lu, Guangming

    2018-04-19

    Radial artery pulse diagnosis has been playing an important role in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM). For its non-invasion and convenience, the pulse diagnosis has great significance in diseases analysis of modern medicine. The practitioners sense the pulse waveforms in patients' wrist to make diagnoses based on their non-objective personal experience. With the researches of pulse acquisition platforms and computerized analysis methods, the objective study on pulse diagnosis can help the TCM to keep up with the development of modern medicine. In this paper, we propose a new method to extract feature from pulse waveform based on discrete Fourier series (DFS). It regards the waveform as one kind of signal that consists of a series of sub-components represented by sine and cosine (SC) signals with different frequencies and amplitudes. After the pulse signals are collected and preprocessed, we fit the average waveform for each sample using discrete Fourier series by least squares. The feature vector is comprised by the coefficients of discrete Fourier series function. Compared with the fitting method using Gaussian mixture function, the fitting errors of proposed method are smaller, which indicate that our method can represent the original signal better. The classification performance of proposed feature is superior to the other features extracted from waveform, liking auto-regression model and Gaussian mixture model. The coefficients of optimized DFS function, who is used to fit the arterial pressure waveforms, can obtain better performance in modeling the waveforms and holds more potential information for distinguishing different psychological states. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Modelling Options for Policy Impact Analysis on African Dairy Farms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oghaiki Asaah NDAMBI

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Studies on the priorities for agricultural research in Eastern and CentralAfrica concluded that milk is the most important commodity for research anddevelopment in the region, based on its potential contribution to the agriculturalGDP. It has been presumed that, the right policies, marketing systems and technicalsupport must be sought for dairy development in Africa. In order to determine theright development pattern, appropriate analytical tools must be applied. The TIPICAL(Technology Impact Policy Impact model was used to analyse the impact ofdifferent policies on two typical dairy farming systems in Uganda, which accountfor more than 70% of milk produced in the country. Seven influential policy areaswere also identified: provision of veterinary services, consumption promotion,marketing promotion, input provision, credit access improvement, milk qualityimprovement and genetic improvement. In general, the policy impacts are very littleon farms with local cows but can be magnified up to threefold, if the farms havegraded cows. Policies which improve farmers’ accessibility to markets have thegreatest impacts. The results obtained from this model were compared to thoseusing the EXTRAPOLATE model. This comparison shows that both models couldcomplement each other in analysing policy impacts on African dairy farms.However, differences in results from the models indicate that more focus should bemade on farmers’ willingness to adopt new technology.

  9. The history of NATO TNF policy: The role of studies, analysis and exercises conference proceedings. Volume 2: Papers and presentations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rinne, R.L.

    1994-02-01

    This conference was organized to study and analyze the role of simulation, analysis, modeling, and exercises in the history of NATO policy. The premise was not that the results of past studies will apply to future policy, but rather that understanding what influenced the decision process -- and how -- would be of value. The structure of the conference was built around discussion panels. The panels were augmented by a series of papers and presentations focusing on particular TNF events, issues, studies, or exercises. The conference proceedings consist of three volumes. Volume 1 contains the conference introduction, agenda, biographical sketches of principal participants, and analytical summary of the presentations and panels. This volume contains a short introduction and the papers and presentations from the conference. Volume 3 contains selected papers by Brig. Gen. Robert C. Richardson III (Ret.). Individual papers in this volume were abstracted and indexed for the database.

  10. The history of NATO TNF policy: The role of studies, analysis and exercises conference proceedings. Volume 1, Introduction and summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rinne, R.L. [ed.

    1994-02-01

    This conference was organized to study and analyze the role of simulation, analysis, modeling, and exercises in the history of NATO policy. The premise was not that the results of past studies will apply to future policy, but rather that understanding what influenced the decision process -- and how -- would be of value. The structure of the conference was built around discussion panels. The panels were augmented by a series of papers and presentations focusing on particular TNF events, issues, studies or exercise. The conference proceedings consist of three volumes. This volume, Volume 1, contains the conference introduction, agenda, biographical sketches of principal participants, and analytical summary of the presentations and discussion panels. Volume 2 contains a short introduction and the papers and presentations from the conference. Volume 3 contains selected papers by Brig. Gen. Robert C. Richardson III (Ret.).

  11. An intersectionality-based policy analysis framework: critical reflections on a methodology for advancing equity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hankivsky, Olena; Grace, Daniel; Hunting, Gemma; Giesbrecht, Melissa; Fridkin, Alycia; Rudrum, Sarah; Ferlatte, Olivier; Clark, Natalie

    2014-12-10

    In the field of health, numerous frameworks have emerged that advance understandings of the differential impacts of health policies to produce inclusive and socially just health outcomes. In this paper, we present the development of an important contribution to these efforts - an Intersectionality-Based Policy Analysis (IBPA) Framework. Developed over the course of two years in consultation with key stakeholders and drawing on best and promising practices of other equity-informed approaches, this participatory and iterative IBPA Framework provides guidance and direction for researchers, civil society, public health professionals and policy actors seeking to address the challenges of health inequities across diverse populations. Importantly, we present the application of the IBPA Framework in seven priority health-related policy case studies. The analysis of each case study is focused on explaining how IBPA: 1) provides an innovative structure for critical policy analysis; 2) captures the different dimensions of policy contexts including history, politics, everyday lived experiences, diverse knowledges and intersecting social locations; and 3) generates transformative insights, knowledge, policy solutions and actions that cannot be gleaned from other equity-focused policy frameworks. The aim of this paper is to inspire a range of policy actors to recognize the potential of IBPA to foreground the complex contexts of health and social problems, and ultimately to transform how policy analysis is undertaken.

  12. Analysis of Public Policies for Sexuality Education in Germany and The Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aronowitz, Teri; Fawcett, Jacqueline

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to present an analysis of the philosophical, historical, sociological, political, and economic perspectives reflected in the public policies about lifespan sexuality education of Germany and The Netherlands. A new conceptual framework for analysis and evaluation of sexuality education policies that integrates the…

  13. Renewable electricity in Sweden: an analysis of policy and regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yan

    2006-01-01

    This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in Sweden. It assesses the energy policy context, changes in the choice of policy instruments, and provides explanations behind policy successes and failures. Swedish renewable energy policy has been developing in a context of uncertainty around nuclear issues. While there has been made a political decision to replace nuclear power with renewable s, there is a lack of consensus about the pace of phasing out nuclear power due to perceived negative impacts on industrial competitiveness. Such uncertainty had an effect in the formulation of renewable energy policy. Biomass and wind power are the main options for renewable electricity production. Throughout 1990s, the combined effect of different policy instruments has stimulated the growth of these two renewable sources. Yet, both biomass and wind power are still a minor contributor in the total electricity generation. Lack of strong government commitment due to uncertainty around nuclear issues is a crucial factor. Short-term subsidies have been preferred rather than open-ended subsidy mechanisms, causing intervals without subsidies and interruption to development. Other factors are such as lack of incentives from the major electricity companies and administrative obstacles. The taxation system has been successful in fostering an expansion of biomass for heating but hindered a similar development in the electricity sector. The quota system adopted in 2003 is expected to create high demand on biomass but does not favour wind power. The renewable energy aims are unlikely to be changed. Yet, the future development of renewable energy policies especially for high-cost technologies will again depend strongly on nuclear policies, which are still unstable and might affect the pace of renewable energy development

  14. Comparative analysis of aging policy reforms in Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, and Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvo, Esteban; Berho, Maureen; Roqué, Mónica; Amaro, Juan Sebastián; Morales, Fernando; Rivera, Emiliana; Gutiérrez Robledo, Luis Miguel F; López, Elizabeth Caro; Canals, Bernardita; Kornfeld, Rosa

    2018-04-16

    This investigation uses case studies and comparative analysis to review and analyze aging policy in Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, and Mexico, and uncovers similarities and relevant trends in the substance of historical and current aging policy across countries. Initial charity-based approaches to poverty and illness have been gradually replaced by a rights-based approach considering broader notions of well-being, and recent reforms emphasize the need for national, intersectoral, evidence-based policy. The results of this study have implications for understanding aging policy in Latin America from a welfare regime and policymakers' perspective, identifying priorities for intervention, and informing policy reforms in developing countries worldwide.

  15. On-Line Booking Policies and Competitive Analysis of Medical Examination in Hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Luo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available From the on-line point, we consider the hospital’s medical examination appointment problem with hierarchical machines. This approach eliminates the need for both demand forecasts and a risk-neutrality assumption. Due to different unit revenue, uncertain demand, and arrival of patients, we design on-line booking policies for two kinds of different situations from the perspective of on-line policy and competitive analysis. After that, we prove the optimal competitive ratios. Through numerical examples, we compare advantages and disadvantages between on-line policies and traditional policies, finding that there is different superiority for these two policies under different arrival sequences.

  16. Analysis of cyclical behavior in time series of stock market returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stratimirović, Djordje; Sarvan, Darko; Miljković, Vladimir; Blesić, Suzana

    2018-01-01

    In this paper we have analyzed scaling properties and cyclical behavior of the three types of stock market indexes (SMI) time series: data belonging to stock markets of developed economies, emerging economies, and of the underdeveloped or transitional economies. We have used two techniques of data analysis to obtain and verify our findings: the wavelet transform (WT) spectral analysis to identify cycles in the SMI returns data, and the time-dependent detrended moving average (tdDMA) analysis to investigate local behavior around market cycles and trends. We found cyclical behavior in all SMI data sets that we have analyzed. Moreover, the positions and the boundaries of cyclical intervals that we found seam to be common for all markets in our dataset. We list and illustrate the presence of nine such periods in our SMI data. We report on the possibilities to differentiate between the level of growth of the analyzed markets by way of statistical analysis of the properties of wavelet spectra that characterize particular peak behaviors. Our results show that measures like the relative WT energy content and the relative WT amplitude of the peaks in the small scales region could be used to partially differentiate between market economies. Finally, we propose a way to quantify the level of development of a stock market based on estimation of local complexity of market's SMI series. From the local scaling exponents calculated for our nine peak regions we have defined what we named the Development Index, which proved, at least in the case of our dataset, to be suitable to rank the SMI series that we have analyzed in three distinct groups.

  17. Time series analysis of soil Radon-222 recorded at Kutch region, Gujarat, India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madhusudan Rao, K.; Rastogi, B.K.; Barman, Chiranjib; Chaudhuri, Hirok

    2013-01-01

    Kutch region in Gujarat lies in a seismic vulnerable zone (seismic zone-v). After the devastating Bhuj earthquake (7.7M) of January 26, 2001 in the Kutch region several researcher focused their attention to monitor geophysical and geochemical precursors for earthquakes in the region. In order to find out the possible geochemical precursory signals for earthquake events, we monitored radioactive gas radon-222 in sub surface soil gas at Kutch region. We have analysed the recorded soil radon-222 time series by means of nonlinear techniques such as FFT power spectral analysis, empirical mode decomposition, multi-fractal analysis along with other linear statistical methods. Some fascinating and fruitful results originated out the nonlinear analysis of the said time series have been discussed in the present paper. The entire analytical method aided us to recognize the nature and pattern of soil radon-222 emanation process. Moreover the recording and statistical and non-linear analysis of soil radon data at Kutch region will assist us to understand the preparation phase of an imminent seismic event in the region. (author)

  18. Arab drama series content analysis from a transnational Arab identity perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joelle Chamieh

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The scientific contribution in deciphering drama series falls under the discipline of understanding the narratology of distinctive cultures and traditions within specific contexts of certain societies. This article spells out the interferences deployed by the provocations that are induced through the functions of values in modeling societies which are projected through the transmission of media. The proposed operational model consists of providing an à priori design of common Arab values assimilated into an innovative grid analysis code book that has enabled the execution of a systematic and reliable approach to the quantitative content analysis performance. Additionally, a more thorough qualitative content analysis has been implemented in terms of narratolgy where actions have been evaluated based on the grid analysis code book for a clearer perception of Arab values depicted in terms of their context within the Arab drama milieu. This approach has been deployed on four Arab drama series covering the transnational/national and non-divisive/divisive media aspects in the intention of extracting the transmitted values from a common identity perspective for cause of divulging Arab people’s expectancies.

  19. The Appreciative System of Urban ICT Policies: An Analysis of Perceptions of Urban Policy Makers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cohen-Blankshtain, G.; Nijkamp, P.

    2004-01-01

    Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has become an important tool to promote a variety of public goals and policies. In the past years much attention has been given to the expected social benefits from deploying ICTs in different urban fields (transportation, education, public

  20. Youth policy and participation: An analysis of pedagogical ideals in municipal youth policy in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmerman, Greetje

    Over the past two decades, in several Northern and Western European Union countries responsibility for general youth policy has been transferred from the central government to the local level of municipalities. In this transformation process the local authorities. guided by central government's