WorldWideScience

Sample records for policy analysis series

  1. Reduction in male suicide mortality following the 2006 Russian alcohol policy: an interrupted time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pridemore, William Alex; Chamlin, Mitchell B; Andreev, Evgeny

    2013-11-01

    We took advantage of a natural experiment to assess the impact on suicide mortality of a suite of Russian alcohol policies. We obtained suicide counts from anonymous death records collected by the Russian Federal State Statistics Service. We used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) interrupted time series techniques to model the effect of the alcohol policy (implemented in January 2006) on monthly male and female suicide counts between January 2000 and December 2010. Monthly male and female suicide counts decreased during the period under study. Although the ARIMA analysis showed no impact of the policy on female suicide mortality, the results revealed an immediate and permanent reduction of about 9% in male suicides (Ln ω0 = -0.096; P = .01). Despite a recent decrease in mortality, rates of alcohol consumption and suicide in Russia remain among the highest in the world. Our analysis revealed that the 2006 alcohol policy in Russia led to a 9% reduction in male suicide mortality, meaning the policy was responsible for saving 4000 male lives annually that would otherwise have been lost to suicide. Together with recent similar findings elsewhere, our results suggest an important role for public health and other population level interventions, including alcohol policy, in reducing alcohol-related harm.

  2. The impact of policy on hospital productivity: a time series analysis of Dutch hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blank, Jos L T; Eggink, Evelien

    2014-06-01

    The health care industry, in particular the hospital industry, is under an increasing degree of pressure, by an ageing population, advancing expensive medical technology a shrinking labor. The pressure on hospitals is further increased by the planned budget cuts in public spending by many current administrations as a result of the economic and financial crises. However, productivity increases may alleviate these problems. Therefore we study whether productivity in the hospital sector is growing, and whether this productivity growth can be influenced by government policy. Using an econometric time series analysis of the hospital sector in the Netherlands, productivity is estimated for the period 1972-2010. Then, productivity is linked to the different regulation regimes during that period, ranging from output funding in the 1970s to the current liberalized hospital market. The results indicate that the average productivity of the hospital sector in different periods differs and that these differences are related to the structure of regulation in those periods.

  3. Sustainability of Italian budgetary policies: a time series analysis (1862-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordon L. Brady

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we analyze the sustainability of Italian public finances using a unique database covering the period 1862-2013. This paper focuses on empirical tests for the sustainability and solvency of fiscal policies. A necessary but not sufficient condition implies that the growth rate of public debt should in the limit be smaller than the asymptotic rate of interest. In addition, the debt-to-GDP ratio must eventually stabilize at a steady-state level. The results of unit root and stationarity tests show that the variables are non-stationary at levels, but stationary in first-differences form, or I(1. However, some breaks in the series emerge, given internal and external crises (wars, oil shocks, regime changes, institutional reforms. Therefore, the empirical analysis is conducted for the entire period, as well as two sub‐periods (1862‐1913 and 1947‐2013. Moreover, anecdotal evidence and visual inspection of the series confirm our results. Furthermore, we conduct tests on cointegration, which evidence that a long-run relationship between public expenditure and revenues is found only for the first sub-period (1862-1913. In essence, the paper’s results reveal that Italy have sustainability problems in the Republican age.

  4. Association between Florida's smoke-free policy and acute myocardial infarction by race: A time series analysis, 2000-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mead, Erin L; Cruz-Cano, Raul; Bernat, Debra; Whitsel, Laurie; Huang, Jidong; Sherwin, Chris; Robertson, Rose Marie

    2016-11-01

    Racial disparities in acute myocardial infarctions (AMIs) are increasing over time. Previous studies have shown that the implementation of smoke-free policies is associated with reduced AMI rates. The objective of this study was to determine the association between smoke-free policy and AMI hospitalization rates and smoking by race. Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project data from Florida from 2000-2013 were analyzed using interrupted time series analysis to determine the relationship between Florida's smoke-free restaurant and workplace laws and AMI among the total adult population (aged ≥18years), by age, race, and gender. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data from Florida from 2000 to 2010 were analyzed using logistic regression to determine the association between policy and the adult smoking prevalence. After implementation of the smoke-free policy, no statistically significant associations between AMI hospitalization rates or smoking prevalence were detected in the total population. In the subgroup analysis, the policy was associated with declines in AMI hospitalization rates among non-Hispanic white adults aged 18-44years (β=-0.001 per 10,000, p-value=0.0083). No other relationships with AMI hospitalization rates and smoking prevalence were found in the subgroup analysis. More comprehensive smoke-free and tobacco control policies are needed to further reduce AMI hospitalization rates, particularly among minority populations. Further research is needed to understand and address how the implementation of smoke-free policies affects secondhand smoke exposure among racial and ethnic minorities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Evaluating pharmaceutical policies using cross-national comparisons and time series analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Santa Ana Tellez, Y.

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this thesis was to evaluate the effects of different pharmaceutical policies on the use of medicines (e.g. antibiotics). These policies were evaluated using diverse data sources from the public and private sector in countries in Africa, Latin America, and Western Europe. In addition, the

  6. The impact of policy guidelines on hospital antibiotic use over a decade: a segmented time series analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujith J Chandy

    Full Text Available Antibiotic pressure contributes to rising antibiotic resistance. Policy guidelines encourage rational prescribing behavior, but effectiveness in containing antibiotic use needs further assessment. This study therefore assessed the patterns of antibiotic use over a decade and analyzed the impact of different modes of guideline development and dissemination on inpatient antibiotic use.Antibiotic use was calculated monthly as defined daily doses (DDD per 100 bed days for nine antibiotic groups and overall. This time series compared trends in antibiotic use in five adjacent time periods identified as 'Segments,' divided based on differing modes of guideline development and implementation: Segment 1--Baseline prior to antibiotic guidelines development; Segment 2--During preparation of guidelines and booklet dissemination; Segment 3--Dormant period with no guidelines dissemination; Segment 4--Booklet dissemination of revised guidelines; Segment 5--Booklet dissemination of revised guidelines with intranet access. Regression analysis adapted for segmented time series and adjusted for seasonality assessed changes in antibiotic use trend.Overall antibiotic use increased at a monthly rate of 0.95 (SE = 0.18, 0.21 (SE = 0.08 and 0.31 (SE = 0.06 for Segments 1, 2 and 3, stabilized in Segment 4 (0.05; SE = 0.10 and declined in Segment 5 (-0.37; SE = 0.11. Segments 1, 2 and 4 exhibited seasonal fluctuations. Pairwise segmented regression adjusted for seasonality revealed a significant drop in monthly antibiotic use of 0.401 (SE = 0.089; p<0.001 for Segment 5 compared to Segment 4. Most antibiotic groups showed similar trends to overall use.Use of overall and specific antibiotic groups showed varied patterns and seasonal fluctuations. Containment of rising overall antibiotic use was possible during periods of active guideline dissemination. Wider access through intranet facilitated significant decline in use. Stakeholders and policy

  7. Visual time series analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Paul; Hilbert, Astrid

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a platform which supplies an easy-to-handle, interactive, extendable, and fast analysis tool for time series analysis. In contrast to other software suits like Maple, Matlab, or R, which use a command-line-like interface and where the user has to memorize/look-up the appropriate...... commands, our application is select-and-click-driven. It allows to derive many different sequences of deviations for a given time series and to visualize them in different ways in order to judge their expressive power and to reuse the procedure found. For many transformations or model-ts, the user may...... choose between manual and automated parameter selection. The user can dene new transformations and add them to the system. The application contains efficient implementations of advanced and recent techniques for time series analysis including techniques related to extreme value analysis and filtering...

  8. Urban containment policies and physical activity. A time-series analysis of metropolitan areas, 1990-2002.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aytur, Semra A; Rodriguez, Daniel A; Evenson, Kelly R; Catellier, Diane J

    2008-04-01

    Urban containment policies attempt to manage the location, character, and timing of growth to support a variety of goals such as compact development, preservation of greenspace, and efficient use of infrastructure. Despite prior research evaluating the effects of urban containment policies on land use, housing, and transportation outcomes, the public health implications of these policies remain unexplored. This ecologic study examines relationships among urban containment policies, state adoption of growth-management legislation, and population levels of leisure and transportation-related physical activity in 63 large metropolitan statistical areas from 1990 to 2002. Multiple data sources were combined, including surveys of urban containment policies, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, the U.S. Census of Population, the National Resources Inventory, and the Texas Transportation Institute Urban Mobility Study. Mixed models were used to examine whether urban containment policies and state adoption of growth-management legislation were associated with population levels of leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) and walking/bicycling to work over time. Strong urban containment policies were associated with higher population levels of LTPA and walking/bicycling to work during the study period. Additionally, residents of states with legislation mandating urban growth boundaries reported significantly more minutes of LTPA/week compared to residents of states without such policies. Weak urban containment policies showed inconsistent relationships with physical activity. This study provides preliminary evidence that strong urban containment policies are associated with higher population levels of LTPA and active commuting. Future research should examine potential synergies among state, metropolitan, and local policy processes that may strengthen these relationships.

  9. Time series analysis of the impact of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence among Australian adults, 2001-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wakefield, Melanie A; Coomber, Kerri; Durkin, Sarah J; Scollo, Michelle; Bayly, Megan; Spittal, Matthew J; Simpson, Julie A; Hill, David

    2014-06-01

    To determine the impact of tobacco control policies and mass media campaigns on smoking prevalence in Australian adults. Data for calculating the average monthly prevalence of smoking between January 2001 and June 2011 were obtained via structured interviews of randomly sampled adults aged 18 years or older from Australia's five largest capital cities (monthly mean number of adults interviewed: 2375). The influence on smoking prevalence was estimated for increased tobacco taxes; strengthened smoke-free laws; increased monthly population exposure to televised tobacco control mass media campaigns and pharmaceutical company advertising for nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), using gross ratings points; monthly sales of NRT, bupropion and varenicline; and introduction of graphic health warnings on cigarette packs. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to examine the influence of these interventions on smoking prevalence. The mean smoking prevalence for the study period was 19.9% (standard deviation: 2.0%), with a drop from 23.6% (in January 2001) to 17.3% (in June 2011). The best-fitting model showed that stronger smoke-free laws, tobacco price increases and greater exposure to mass media campaigns independently explained 76% of the decrease in smoking prevalence from February 2002 to June 2011. Increased tobacco taxation, more comprehensive smoke-free laws and increased investment in mass media campaigns played a substantial role in reducing smoking prevalence among Australian adults between 2001 and 2011.

  10. Applied time series analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Woodward, Wayne A; Elliott, Alan C

    2011-01-01

    ""There is scarcely a standard technique that the reader will find left out … this book is highly recommended for those requiring a ready introduction to applicable methods in time series and serves as a useful resource for pedagogical purposes.""-International Statistical Review (2014), 82""Current time series theory for practice is well summarized in this book.""-Emmanuel Parzen, Texas A&M University""What an extraordinary range of topics covered, all very insightfully. I like [the authors'] innovations very much, such as the AR factor table.""-David Findley, U.S. Census Bureau (retired)""…

  11. Time series analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Madsen, Henrik

    2007-01-01

    ""In this book the author gives a detailed account of estimation, identification methodologies for univariate and multivariate stationary time-series models. The interesting aspect of this introductory book is that it contains several real data sets and the author made an effort to explain and motivate the methodology with real data. … this introductory book will be interesting and useful not only to undergraduate students in the UK universities but also to statisticians who are keen to learn time-series techniques and keen to apply them. I have no hesitation in recommending the book.""-Journa

  12. Time series analysis time series analysis methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, Tata Subba; Rao, C R

    2012-01-01

    The field of statistics not only affects all areas of scientific activity, but also many other matters such as public policy. It is branching rapidly into so many different subjects that a series of handbooks is the only way of comprehensively presenting the various aspects of statistical methodology, applications, and recent developments. The Handbook of Statistics is a series of self-contained reference books. Each volume is devoted to a particular topic in statistics, with Volume 30 dealing with time series. The series is addressed to the entire community of statisticians and scientists in various disciplines who use statistical methodology in their work. At the same time, special emphasis is placed on applications-oriented techniques, with the applied statistician in mind as the primary audience. Comprehensively presents the various aspects of statistical methodology Discusses a wide variety of diverse applications and recent developments Contributors are internationally renowened experts in their respect...

  13. Evaluating the impact of abrupt changes in forest policy and management practices on landscape dynamics: analysis of a Landsat image time series in the Atlantic Northern Forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legaard, Kasey R; Sader, Steven A; Simons-Legaard, Erin M

    2015-01-01

    Sustainable forest management is based on functional relationships between management actions, landscape conditions, and forest values. Changes in management practices make it fundamentally more difficult to study these relationships because the impacts of current practices are difficult to disentangle from the persistent influences of past practices. Within the Atlantic Northern Forest of Maine, U.S.A., forest policy and management practices changed abruptly in the early 1990s. During the 1970s-1980s, a severe insect outbreak stimulated salvage clearcutting of large contiguous tracts of spruce-fir forest. Following clearcut regulation in 1991, management practices shifted abruptly to near complete dependence on partial harvesting. Using a time series of Landsat satellite imagery (1973-2010) we assessed cumulative landscape change caused by these very different management regimes. We modeled predominant temporal patterns of harvesting and segmented a large study area into groups of landscape units with similar harvest histories. Time series of landscape composition and configuration metrics averaged within groups revealed differences in landscape dynamics caused by differences in management history. In some groups (24% of landscape units), salvage caused rapid loss and subdivision of intact mature forest. Persistent landscape change was created by large salvage clearcuts (often averaging > 100 ha) and conversion of spruce-fir to deciduous and mixed forest. In groups that were little affected by salvage (56% of landscape units), contemporary partial harvesting caused loss and subdivision of intact mature forest at even greater rates. Patch shape complexity and edge density reached high levels even where cumulative harvest area was relatively low. Contemporary practices introduced more numerous and much smaller patches of stand-replacing disturbance (typically averaging Management regimes impacted different areas to different degrees, producing different trajectories

  14. Realism in Foreign Policy Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wivel, Anders

    2017-01-01

    'Realism in Foreign Policy Analysis' traces how realist thinking on foreign policy has developed over the years and discusses the challenges and opportunities faced by various strands of realism when applied to foreign policy analysis.......'Realism in Foreign Policy Analysis' traces how realist thinking on foreign policy has developed over the years and discusses the challenges and opportunities faced by various strands of realism when applied to foreign policy analysis....

  15. Empirical evidence in the analysis of the environmental and energy policies of a series of industrialised nations, during the period 1960-1997, using widely employed macroeconomic indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Focacci, Antonio

    2003-01-01

    This article underlines the main implications of the interrelations between the energy problem and that of environmental pollution, using the most widely used macroeconomic indicators in the field of policy analysis. In fact, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission intensity and energy intensity trends may be used to highlight the most important features of economic development over a given time scale in a variety of different countries. The empirical analysis proposed here--covering a time-span of some 40 years in a number of the most highly industrialised nations--seems to be useful if we are to understand the main similarities and differences in the interaction between the energy choices made by different countries and their respective environmental effects. Moreover, by using PPPs, it has been possible to propose a more detailed cross-country analysis for the different international situations

  16. Policy Analysis Reaches Midlife

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beryl A. Radin

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The field of policy analysis that exists in the 21st century is quite different from that found earlier phases. The world of the 1960s that gave rise to this field in the US often seems unrelated to the world we experience today. These shifts have occurred as a result of a range of developments – technological changes, changes in the structure and processes of government both internally and globally, new expectations about accountability and transparency, economic and fiscal problems, and increased political and ideological conflict.It is clear globalization has had a significant impact on the field. Shifts in the type of decisionmaking also have created challenges for policy analysts since analysts are now clearly in every nook and cranny in the decisionmaking world. Thus it is relevant to look at the work that they do, the skills that they require, and the background experience that is relevant to them.

  17. Widening educational inequalities in adolescent smoking following national tobacco control policies in the Netherlands in 2003: a time-series analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuipers, Mirte A. G.; Nagelhout, Gera E.; Willemsen, Marc C.; Kunst, Anton E.

    2014-01-01

    In 2003, the Netherlands introduced tobacco control policies, including bans on tobacco sales to minors, advertising and sponsoring and tobacco sales in government institutions. We examined the extent to which these policies were associated with a change in educational inequalities in adolescent

  18. Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by Example

    CERN Document Server

    Bisgaard, Soren

    2011-01-01

    An intuition-based approach enables you to master time series analysis with ease Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by Example provides the fundamental techniques in time series analysis using various examples. By introducing necessary theory through examples that showcase the discussed topics, the authors successfully help readers develop an intuitive understanding of seemingly complicated time series models and their implications. The book presents methodologies for time series analysis in a simplified, example-based approach. Using graphics, the authors discuss each presented example in

  19. A Course in Time Series Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peña, Daniel; Tsay, Ruey S

    2011-01-01

    New statistical methods and future directions of research in time series A Course in Time Series Analysis demonstrates how to build time series models for univariate and multivariate time series data. It brings together material previously available only in the professional literature and presents a unified view of the most advanced procedures available for time series model building. The authors begin with basic concepts in univariate time series, providing an up-to-date presentation of ARIMA models, including the Kalman filter, outlier analysis, automatic methods for building ARIMA models, a

  20. Widening educational inequalities in adolescent smoking following national tobacco control policies in the Netherlands in 2003: a time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuipers, Mirte A G; Nagelhout, Gera E; Willemsen, Marc C; Kunst, Anton E

    2014-10-01

    In 2003, the Netherlands introduced tobacco control policies, including bans on tobacco sales to minors, advertising and sponsoring and tobacco sales in government institutions. We examined the extent to which these policies were associated with a change in educational inequalities in adolescent smoking. Repeated cross-sectional survey. The Netherlands, 1992-2011. A total of 43 527 14-19-year-old adolescents. Data were obtained from the national Youth Smoking Monitor. We used logistic regression analyses to model the immediate change in daily smoking prevalence in 2003, the trends and the changes in trends. Models included interactions between educational level (high versus low, based on the educational track of the respondent) and, respectively, period (after versus before 2003), time and time × period. Before 2003 the smoking trend declined slightly, and the decline was comparable for students of both high and low educational levels. Immediately after tobacco policies were introduced, daily smoking prevalence dropped for the total population [regression coefficient (β) = -0.340, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.445; -0.236]. This drop was larger for high educational level compared to low educational level (β interaction = -0.400, 95% CI = -0.623; -0.176). After 2003, trends in educational inequalities in smoking stabilized. Following the introduction of new tobacco control policies in the Netherlands in 2003, smoking prevalence rates decreased among adolescents of both higher and lower educational levels. However, socio-economic inequalities in adolescent smoking increased. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  1. The impact of alcohol and road traffic policies on crash rates in Botswana, 2004-2011: a time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebego, Miriam; Naumann, Rebecca B; Rudd, Rose A; Voetsch, Karen; Dellinger, Ann M; Ndlovu, Christopher

    2014-09-01

    In Botswana, increased development and motorization have brought increased road traffic-related death rates. Between 1981 and 2001, the road traffic-related death rate in Botswana more than tripled. The country has taken several steps over the last several years to address the growing burden of road traffic crashes and particularly to address the burden of alcohol-related crashes. This study examines the impact of the implementation of alcohol and road safety-related policies on crash rates, including overall crash rates, fatal crash rates, and single-vehicle nighttime fatal (SVNF) crash rates, in Botswana from 2004 to 2011. The overall crash rate declined significantly in June 2009 and June 2010, such that the overall crash rate from June 2010 to December 2011 was 22% lower than the overall crash rate from January 2004 to May 2009. Additionally, there were significant declines in average fatal crash and SVNF crash rates in early 2010. Botswana's recent crash rate reductions occurred during a time when aggressive policies and other activities (e.g., education, enforcement) were implemented to reduce alcohol consumption and improve road safety. While it is unclear which of the policies or activities contributed to these declines and to what extent, these reductions are likely the result of several, combined efforts. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. The foundations of modern time series analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Mills, Terence C

    2011-01-01

    This book develops the analysis of Time Series from its formal beginnings in the 1890s through to the publication of Box and Jenkins' watershed publication in 1970, showing how these methods laid the foundations for the modern techniques of Time Series analysis that are in use today.

  3. Monetary Policy Analysis in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Vesna

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on analysing monetary policy in Serbia. The National Bank of Serbia chose inflation targeting, which sets price stability as the main objective of monetary policy. To achieve this goal, the central bank uses different monetary policy instruments which analysis can provide us with the understanding of the main directions of their actions but also of the limitations of its application. Only through improvement of both instruments and monetary policy the central bank will create a better foundation for achieving monetary stability. In addition, the implementation of exchange rate policy is entrusted to the National Bank of Serbia, as the main regulator of the financial system. A mere use of managed floating exchange rate, as the chosen exchange rate regime, is an appropriate solution in the current economic circumstances and in accordance with the desired objective of monetary policy.

  4. Analysis of Heavy-Tailed Time Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xie, Xiaolei

    and expressed in terms of the parameters of the dependence structure, among others. Furthermore, we study an importance sampling method for estimating rare-event probabilities of multivariate heavy-tailed time series generated by matrix recursion. We show that the proposed algorithm is efficient in the sense......This thesis is about analysis of heavy-tailed time series. We discuss tail properties of real-world equity return series and investigate the possibility that a single tail index is shared by all return series of actively traded equities in a market. Conditions for this hypothesis to be true...... are identified. We study the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of sample covariance and sample auto-covariance matrices of multivariate heavy-tailed time series, and particularly for time series with very high dimensions. Asymptotic approximations of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of such matrices are found...

  5. Methods comparison by time series analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giovino, J.

    1986-01-01

    One role of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is that of monitor for laboratories under contract to perform chemical analyses. In general this program involves periodic analyses and reporting of unknown radionuclides in water. This radiochemistry data for the years 1980-1984, has been summarized. It represents several radionuclides and various methods used by numerous laboratories. Any series of measurements taken at successive time points is a time series, and is thus candidate for time series analysis. The purpose of such an analysis is to see what changes take place over time in the event being observed, to see if the performance is better or worse than it was expected to be, and to predict future behavior. To illustrate the step-by-step process of a time series analysis, the radionuclide /sup 226/Ra was selected. The available data were generated by two methods; total radium alpha and /sup 222/Rn emanation. The results of analysis are presented

  6. Applied time series analysis and innovative computing

    CERN Document Server

    Ao, Sio-Iong

    2010-01-01

    This text is a systematic, state-of-the-art introduction to the use of innovative computing paradigms as an investigative tool for applications in time series analysis. It includes frontier case studies based on recent research.

  7. Networks and Bargaining in Policy Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bogason, Peter

    2006-01-01

    A duscussion of the fight between proponents of rationalistic policy analysis and more political interaction models for policy analysis. The latter group is the foundation for the many network models of policy analysis of today.......A duscussion of the fight between proponents of rationalistic policy analysis and more political interaction models for policy analysis. The latter group is the foundation for the many network models of policy analysis of today....

  8. ROMANIAN INVESTMENT POLICY ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hategan Anca

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Starting with the year 2009, the European Union, as well as the rest of the world, was affected by the economic and financial crisis, and one of the effects reflected in the decrease of foreign direct investment (FDI projects and also in the reduction of their host locations. Creating a healthy economic environment, that should be efficient for any form of international investment , represents the nowadays challenge of all market economies. This paper concentrates on analyzing our country’s attractiveness from the international investor’s point of view, it also focuses on the Romanian investment policy, its investment climate, as well as on identifying or valuating the strengths and opportunities offered by Romania. The advantages of the foreign direct investments are universally recognized and they basically include the expansion of the production capacity and income, job creation, technologically diffusion and economic development. Creating an appropriate economic environment, that is efficient for any form of international investments represents the nowadays challenge of all market economies. OECD member states experience, for example, outlines the advantages of a functional legal and normative climate, based on the principles of transparency and non discrimination, that are essential for attracting foreign investments. In the actual competition for attracting FDI, every state tries to offer as many incentives to the future foreign investors. The Romanian investment policy sets out incentives in a non-discriminatory and transparent way offering the investors the specific criteria. The Romanian business environment has improved significantly in recent years, driven in particular by EU accession. Major progress has been recorded in areas such as the fiscal environment, rule of law, the fight against corruption and property registration. When considering our country a possible location for the development of their businesses, the foreign

  9. Visibility Graph Based Time Series Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen, Mutua; Gu, Changgui; Yang, Huijie

    2015-01-01

    Network based time series analysis has made considerable achievements in the recent years. By mapping mono/multivariate time series into networks, one can investigate both it's microscopic and macroscopic behaviors. However, most proposed approaches lead to the construction of static networks consequently providing limited information on evolutionary behaviors. In the present paper we propose a method called visibility graph based time series analysis, in which series segments are mapped to visibility graphs as being descriptions of the corresponding states and the successively occurring states are linked. This procedure converts a time series to a temporal network and at the same time a network of networks. Findings from empirical records for stock markets in USA (S&P500 and Nasdaq) and artificial series generated by means of fractional Gaussian motions show that the method can provide us rich information benefiting short-term and long-term predictions. Theoretically, we propose a method to investigate time series from the viewpoint of network of networks.

  10. Relating Actor Analysis Methods to Policy Problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Lei, T.E.

    2009-01-01

    For a policy analyst the policy problem is the starting point for the policy analysis process. During this process the policy analyst structures the policy problem and makes a choice for an appropriate set of methods or techniques to analyze the problem (Goeller 1984). The methods of the policy

  11. Policy Analysis and Decisionmaking,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-01-01

    on "PoI icy Analysis as appl ied to Hiqh-Level Decision-Makinq,’ orciani,’t, ard ,ponsored by Orinoquia Asociacion Civil , in Caracas. Vvelc/t l...substantive and tactical c. Rand’s experience (the new Institute for Civil Justice as a change) i

  12. Introduction to time series analysis and forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Montgomery, Douglas C; Kulahci, Murat

    2008-01-01

    An accessible introduction to the most current thinking in and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data. Analyzing time-oriented data and forecasting are among the most important problems that analysts face across many fields, ranging from finance and economics to production operations and the natural sciences. As a result, there is a widespread need for large groups of people in a variety of fields to understand the basic concepts of time series analysis and forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting presents the time series analysis branch of applied statistics as the underlying methodology for developing practical forecasts, and it also bridges the gap between theory and practice by equipping readers with the tools needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct useful, short- to medium-term, statistically based forecasts.

  13. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF MONETARY POLICY INDICATORS VARIABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ANAMARIA POPESCU

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to characterize through statistical indicators of statistical data that we have available. The purpose of this paper is to present statistical indicators, primary and secondary, simple and synthetic, which is frequently used for statistical characterization of statistical series. We can thus analyze central tendency, and data variability, form and concentration distributions package data using analytical tools in Microsoft Excel that enables automatic calculation of descriptive statistics using Data Analysis option from the Tools menu. We will also study the links which exist between statistical variables can be studied using two techniques, correlation and regression. From the analysis of monetary policy in the period 2003 - 2014 and information provided by the website of the National Bank of Romania (BNR seems to be a certain tendency towards eccentricity and asymmetry of financial data series.

  14. Entropic Analysis of Electromyography Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Miron; Sung, Paul

    2005-03-01

    We are in the process of assessing the effectiveness of fractal and entropic measures for the diagnostic of low back pain from surface electromyography (EMG) time series. Surface electromyography (EMG) is used to assess patients with low back pain. In a typical EMG measurement, the voltage is measured every millisecond. We observed back muscle fatiguing during one minute, which results in a time series with 60,000 entries. We characterize the complexity of time series by computing the Shannon entropy time dependence. The analysis of the time series from different relevant muscles from healthy and low back pain (LBP) individuals provides evidence that the level of variability of back muscle activities is much larger for healthy individuals than for individuals with LBP. In general the time dependence of the entropy shows a crossover from a diffusive regime to a regime characterized by long time correlations (self organization) at about 0.01s.

  15. Introduction to time series analysis and forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Montgomery, Douglas C; Kulahci, Murat

    2015-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition ""…[t]he book is great for readers who need to apply the methods and models presented but have little background in mathematics and statistics."" -MAA Reviews Thoroughly updated throughout, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition presents the underlying theories of time series analysis that are needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct real-world short- to medium-term statistical forecasts.    Authored by highly-experienced academics and professionals in engineering statistics, the Second Edition features discussions on both

  16. Climate policy decisions require policy-based lifecycle analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bento, Antonio M; Klotz, Richard

    2014-05-20

    Lifecycle analysis (LCA) metrics of greenhouse gas emissions are increasingly being used to select technologies supported by climate policy. However, LCAs typically evaluate the emissions associated with a technology or product, not the impacts of policies. Here, we show that policies supporting the same technology can lead to dramatically different emissions impacts per unit of technology added, due to multimarket responses to the policy. Using a policy-based consequential LCA, we find that the lifecycle emissions impacts of four US biofuel policies range from a reduction of 16.1 gCO2e to an increase of 24.0 gCO2e per MJ corn ethanol added by the policy. The differences between these results and representative technology-based LCA measures, which do not account for the policy instrument driving the expansion in the technology, illustrate the need for policy-based LCA measures when informing policy decision making.

  17. Understanding Canada's International Trade Policy. "Understanding Economics" Series No. 4.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornell, Peter M.

    Written for secondary school Canadian students, the document examines Canada's international trade policy. It is arranged in three sections. Part I discusses the affect of Canada's trade policy on the individual citizen. Tariffs and non-tariff barriers to trade such as import licenses, preferential purchasing agreements, health and safety…

  18. Lecture notes for Advanced Time Series Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Holst, Jan

    1997-01-01

    A first version of this notes was used at the lectures in Grenoble, and they are now extended and improved (together with Jan Holst), and used in Ph.D. courses on Advanced Time Series Analysis at IMM and at the Department of Mathematical Statistics, University of Lund, 1994, 1997, ...

  19. Nonlinear Time Series Analysis via Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volná, Eva; Janošek, Michal; Kocian, Václav; Kotyrba, Martin

    This article deals with a time series analysis based on neural networks in order to make an effective forex market [Moore and Roche, J. Int. Econ. 58, 387-411 (2002)] pattern recognition. Our goal is to find and recognize important patterns which repeatedly appear in the market history to adapt our trading system behaviour based on them.

  20. Transformation of Croatian Disabled Policy: Analysis of Policy Goals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Petek

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is based on the idea of transformation of the policy-making mode of Croatian disabled policy, from the medical model, through the social model to the human rights model. The paper highlights 7 elements according to which these models differ, and which are structured into categories of problem-definition, goal-determination and then implementation of disabled policy. The analysis is focused on the goals of Croatian disabled policy, and is based on an interdisciplinary research project of political science, special education and social work. Empirical data were collected by document analysis, by interviewing relevant policy actors and by a survey with the members of representative bodies on all government levels. With the discourse analysis of documents, open coding of interviews and statistical analysis of data collected in the survey, the paper attempts, through the indicator of activity of persons with disability, to answer to what extent Croatian disabled policy is transformed into human rights policy.

  1. A taylor series approach to survival analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brodsky, J.B.; Groer, P.G.

    1984-09-01

    A method of survival analysis using hazard functions is developed. The method uses the well known mathematical theory for Taylor Series. Hypothesis tests of the adequacy of many statistical models, including proportional hazards and linear and/or quadratic dose responses, are obtained. A partial analysis of leukemia mortality in the Life Span Study cohort is used as an example. Furthermore, a relatively robust estimation procedure for the proportional hazards model is proposed. (author)

  2. The Statistical Analysis of Time Series

    CERN Document Server

    Anderson, T W

    2011-01-01

    The Wiley Classics Library consists of selected books that have become recognized classics in their respective fields. With these new unabridged and inexpensive editions, Wiley hopes to extend the life of these important works by making them available to future generations of mathematicians and scientists. Currently available in the Series: T. W. Anderson Statistical Analysis of Time Series T. S. Arthanari & Yadolah Dodge Mathematical Programming in Statistics Emil Artin Geometric Algebra Norman T. J. Bailey The Elements of Stochastic Processes with Applications to the Natural Sciences George

  3. Fourier analysis of time series an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Bloomfield, Peter

    2000-01-01

    A new, revised edition of a yet unrivaled work on frequency domain analysis Long recognized for his unique focus on frequency domain methods for the analysis of time series data as well as for his applied, easy-to-understand approach, Peter Bloomfield brings his well-known 1976 work thoroughly up to date. With a minimum of mathematics and an engaging, highly rewarding style, Bloomfield provides in-depth discussions of harmonic regression, harmonic analysis, complex demodulation, and spectrum analysis. All methods are clearly illustrated using examples of specific data sets, while ample

  4. Nonlinear time series analysis with R

    CERN Document Server

    Huffaker, Ray; Rosa, Rodolfo

    2017-01-01

    In the process of data analysis, the investigator is often facing highly-volatile and random-appearing observed data. A vast body of literature shows that the assumption of underlying stochastic processes was not necessarily representing the nature of the processes under investigation and, when other tools were used, deterministic features emerged. Non Linear Time Series Analysis (NLTS) allows researchers to test whether observed volatility conceals systematic non linear behavior, and to rigorously characterize governing dynamics. Behavioral patterns detected by non linear time series analysis, along with scientific principles and other expert information, guide the specification of mechanistic models that serve to explain real-world behavior rather than merely reproducing it. Often there is a misconception regarding the complexity of the level of mathematics needed to understand and utilize the tools of NLTS (for instance Chaos theory). However, mathematics used in NLTS is much simpler than many other subjec...

  5. Institutional analysis for energy policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morris, F.A.; Cole, R.J.

    1980-07-01

    This report summarizes principles, techniques, and other information for doing institutional analyses in the area of energy policy. The report was prepared to support DOE's Regional Issues Identification and Assessment (RIIA) program. RIIA identifies environmental, health, safety, socioeconomic, and institutional issues that could accompany hypothetical future scenarios for energy consumption and production on a regional basis. Chapter 1 provides some theoretical grounding in institutional analysis. Chapter 2 provides information on constructing institutional maps of the processes for bringing on line energy technologies and facilities contemplated in RIIA scenarios. Chapter 3 assesses the institutional constraints, opportunities, and impacts that affect whether these technologies and facilities would in fact be developed. Chapters 4 and 5 show how institutional analysis can support use of exercises such as RIIA in planning institutional change and making energy policy choices.

  6. Rhetorical Analysis in Critical Policy Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winton, Sue

    2013-01-01

    Rhetorical analysis, an approach to critical discourse analysis, is presented as a useful method for critical policy analysis and its effort to understand the role policies play in perpetuating inequality. A rhetorical analysis of Character "Matters!", the character education policy of a school board in Ontario, Canada, provides an…

  7. A Practical Method of Policy Analysis by Simulating Policy Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phelps, James L.

    2011-01-01

    This article focuses on a method of policy analysis that has evolved from the previous articles in this issue. The first section, "Toward a Theory of Educational Production," identifies concepts from science and achievement production to be incorporated into this policy analysis method. Building on Kuhn's (1970) discussion regarding paradigms, the…

  8. RISK ANALYSIS SERIES. PART ONE - WHY RISK ANALYSIS?

    OpenAIRE

    Iulian N. BUJOREANU

    2012-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to introduce the reader to the Risk Analysis Series to be developed in the pages of the Journal of Defense Resources Management. Risk analysis is of outmost importance in dealing with resource allocation and this is the reason the paper’s author started this series. Different views and approaches will be added during further discussion about risk analysis so that the reader develops a habit or skills of dealing with this intricate and challenging field.

  9. RISK ANALYSIS SERIES. PART ONE - WHY RISK ANALYSIS?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulian N. BUJOREANU

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this paper is to introduce the reader to the Risk Analysis Series to be developed in the pages of the Journal of Defense Resources Management. Risk analysis is of outmost importance in dealing with resource allocation and this is the reason the paper’s author started this series. Different views and approaches will be added during further discussion about risk analysis so that the reader develops a habit or skills of dealing with this intricate and challenging field.

  10. The Intellectual Landscape of Critical Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diem, Sarah; Young, Michelle D.; Welton, Anjalé D.; Mansfield, Katherine Cumings; Lee, Pei-Ling

    2014-01-01

    What counts as critical policy analysis in education? Over the past 30 years, a tightening of national educational policies can be seen in the USA and across the globe. Over this same period of time, a growing number of educational policy scholars, dissatisfied with traditional frameworks, have used critical frameworks in their analyses. Their…

  11. Evaluation and Policy Analysis: A Communicative Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cynthia Wallat

    1997-07-01

    Full Text Available A major challenge for the next generation of students of human development is to help shape the paradigms by which we analyze and evaluate public policies for children and families. Advocates of building research and policy connections point to health care and stress experiences across home, school, and community as critical policy issues that expand the scope of contexts and outcomes studied. At a minimum, development researchers and practitioners will need to be well versed in available methods of inquiry; they will need to be "methodologically multilingual" when conducting evaluation and policy analysis, producing reports, and reporting their interpretations to consumer and policy audiences. This article suggests how traditional approaches to policy inquiry can be reconsidered in light of these research inquiry and communicative skills needed by all policy researchers. A fifteen year review of both policy and discourse processes research is presented to suggest ways to conduct policy studies within a communicative framework.

  12. Trend Filtering Techniques for Time Series Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    López Arias, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Time series can be found almost everywhere in our lives and because of this being capable of analysing them is an important task. Most of the time series we can think of are quite noisy, being this one of the main problems to extract information from them. In this work we use Trend Filtering techniques to try to remove this noise from a series and understand the underlying trend of the series, that gives us information about the behaviour of the series aside from the particular...

  13. Time series analysis of temporal networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sikdar, Sandipan; Ganguly, Niloy; Mukherjee, Animesh

    2016-01-01

    A common but an important feature of all real-world networks is that they are temporal in nature, i.e., the network structure changes over time. Due to this dynamic nature, it becomes difficult to propose suitable growth models that can explain the various important characteristic properties of these networks. In fact, in many application oriented studies only knowing these properties is sufficient. For instance, if one wishes to launch a targeted attack on a network, this can be done even without the knowledge of the full network structure; rather an estimate of some of the properties is sufficient enough to launch the attack. We, in this paper show that even if the network structure at a future time point is not available one can still manage to estimate its properties. We propose a novel method to map a temporal network to a set of time series instances, analyze them and using a standard forecast model of time series, try to predict the properties of a temporal network at a later time instance. To our aim, we consider eight properties such as number of active nodes, average degree, clustering coefficient etc. and apply our prediction framework on them. We mainly focus on the temporal network of human face-to-face contacts and observe that it represents a stochastic process with memory that can be modeled as Auto-Regressive-Integrated-Moving-Average (ARIMA). We use cross validation techniques to find the percentage accuracy of our predictions. An important observation is that the frequency domain properties of the time series obtained from spectrogram analysis could be used to refine the prediction framework by identifying beforehand the cases where the error in prediction is likely to be high. This leads to an improvement of 7.96% (for error level ≤20%) in prediction accuracy on an average across all datasets. As an application we show how such prediction scheme can be used to launch targeted attacks on temporal networks. Contribution to the Topical Issue

  14. Flutter Analysis for Turbomachinery Using Volterra Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liou, Meng-Sing; Yao, Weigang

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to describe an accurate and efficient reduced order modeling method for aeroelastic (AE) analysis and for determining the flutter boundary. Without losing accuracy, we develop a reduced order model based on the Volterra series to achieve significant savings in computational cost. The aerodynamic force is provided by a high-fidelity solution from the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations; the structural mode shapes are determined from the finite element analysis. The fluid-structure coupling is then modeled by the state-space formulation with the structural displacement as input and the aerodynamic force as output, which in turn acts as an external force to the aeroelastic displacement equation for providing the structural deformation. NASA's rotor 67 blade is used to study its aeroelastic characteristics under the designated operating condition. First, the CFD results are validated against measured data available for the steady state condition. Then, the accuracy of the developed reduced order model is compared with the full-order solutions. Finally the aeroelastic solutions of the blade are computed and a flutter boundary is identified, suggesting that the rotor, with the material property chosen for the study, is structurally stable at the operating condition, free of encountering flutter.

  15. Policy Matters in Teaching English Language Learners: New York and California. Urban Diversity Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossell, Christine H.

    This monograph in the Urban Diversity Series examines historical and current policy in the teaching of language minority students in New York and California. It explores the key issues in the public's understanding of bilingual education and defines bilingual education in terms of local educational legislation and implementations. Part I,…

  16. What Can Policy Analysis Add to Evaluation Research?: Predictive Modeling and Policy Optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagel, Stuart S.

    Policy analysis, or policy study, is defined as the study of the nature, causes, and effects of alternative public policies; sometimes policy analysis refers to specific methods used. Two new developments associated with policy analysis are discussed. One is the concern for deducing the effects of alternative policies before they are adopted, as…

  17. Policy analysis: palliative care in Ireland.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Larkin, P

    2014-03-01

    Palliative care for patients with advanced illness is a subject of growing importance in health services, policy and research. In 2001 Ireland became one of the first nations to publish a dedicated national palliative care policy. This paper uses the \\'policy analysis triangle\\' as a framework to examine what the policy entailed, where the key ideas originated, why the policy process was activated, who were the key actors, and what were the main consequences. Although palliative care provision expanded following publication, priorities that were unaddressed or not fully embraced on the national policy agenda are identified. The factors underlying areas of non-fulfilment of policy are then discussed. In particular, the analysis highlights that policy initiatives in a relatively new field of healthcare face a trade-off between ambition and feasibility. Key policy goals could not be realised given the large resource commitments required; the competition for resources from other, better-established healthcare sectors; and challenges in expanding workforce and capacity. Additionally, the inherently cross-sectoral nature of palliative care complicated the co-ordination of support for the policy. Policy initiatives in emerging fields such as palliative care should address carefully feasibility and support in their conception and implementation.

  18. Policy analysis of multi-actor systems

    CERN Document Server

    Enserink, Bert; Kwakkel, Jan; Thissen, Wil; Koppenjan, Joop; Bots, Pieter

    2010-01-01

    Policy analysts love solving complex problems. Their favorite problems are not just technically complex but also characterized by the presence of many different social actors that hold conflicting interests, objectives, and perceptions and act strategically to get the best out of a problem situation. This book offers guidance for policy analysts who want to assess if and how their analysis could be of help, based on the premise that problem formulation is the cornerstone in addressing complex problems. This book positions policy analysis within the theories on processes of policy making, and f

  19. Time-frequency analysis of econometric time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corinaldi, Sharif; Cohen, Leon

    2007-06-01

    We review the basic concepts of time-frequency analysis which are methods that indicate not only that which frequencies in a time series but also when they existed. A number of examples are given to illustrate the possible use of these methods to econometric series. The methods are applied to the Beveridge Wheat Price Series.

  20. Time series analysis in the social sciences the fundamentals

    CERN Document Server

    Shin, Youseop

    2017-01-01

    Times Series Analysis in the Social Sciences is a practical and highly readable introduction written exclusively for students and researchers whose mathematical background is limited to basic algebra. The book focuses on fundamental elements of time series analysis that social scientists need to understand so they can employ time series analysis for their research and practice. Through step-by-step explanations and using monthly violent crime rates as case studies, this book explains univariate time series from the preliminary visual analysis through the modeling of seasonality, trends, and re

  1. Policy Analysis and the Health Care System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Science, 1972

    1972-01-01

    Describes the need for reason, analysis, and experimentation in the provision of health services, and proposes that the institute of Medicine of the National Academy of Sciences establish a center for policy studies to complement and interact with government policy formulation. (AL)

  2. Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series for Biological Rhythms Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leise, Tanya L

    2017-06-01

    This article is part of a Journal of Biological Rhythms series exploring analysis and statistics topics relevant to researchers in biological rhythms and sleep research. The goal is to provide an overview of the most common issues that arise in the analysis and interpretation of data in these fields. In this article on time series analysis for biological rhythms, we describe some methods for assessing the rhythmic properties of time series, including tests of whether a time series is indeed rhythmic. Because biological rhythms can exhibit significant fluctuations in their period, phase, and amplitude, their analysis may require methods appropriate for nonstationary time series, such as wavelet transforms, which can measure how these rhythmic parameters change over time. We illustrate these methods using simulated and real time series.

  3. TIME SERIES ANALYSIS USING A UNIQUE MODEL OF TRANSFORMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Klepac

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available REFII1 model is an authorial mathematical model for time series data mining. The main purpose of that model is to automate time series analysis, through a unique transformation model of time series. An advantage of this approach of time series analysis is the linkage of different methods for time series analysis, linking traditional data mining tools in time series, and constructing new algorithms for analyzing time series. It is worth mentioning that REFII model is not a closed system, which means that we have a finite set of methods. At first, this is a model for transformation of values of time series, which prepares data used by different sets of methods based on the same model of transformation in a domain of problem space. REFII model gives a new approach in time series analysis based on a unique model of transformation, which is a base for all kind of time series analysis. The advantage of REFII model is its possible application in many different areas such as finance, medicine, voice recognition, face recognition and text mining.

  4. Mathematical foundations of time series analysis a concise introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Beran, Jan

    2017-01-01

    This book provides a concise introduction to the mathematical foundations of time series analysis, with an emphasis on mathematical clarity. The text is reduced to the essential logical core, mostly using the symbolic language of mathematics, thus enabling readers to very quickly grasp the essential reasoning behind time series analysis. It appeals to anybody wanting to understand time series in a precise, mathematical manner. It is suitable for graduate courses in time series analysis but is equally useful as a reference work for students and researchers alike.

  5. Public Policies Analysis and the Prince System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behxhet Brajshori

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Public Policies present governmental sectorial policies and according to several scholars those are defined based on "what does the Government do". In fact, those are mandatory state's principles for the Government that aims the implementation of the strategy, objectives and Government's goals in the function of its promises' fulfilment towards the electors and all of the country's citizens. Public Policies Analysis has to do with the monitoring of government's agenda which directly can influence on a specific community. The idea of public policies analysis in linked with the need that the Government through statistical data has to prove what is being worked. Public Policies Analysis evolves in terms of design, implementation and public policies' effects. One of the methods for predicting the probability that a specifi c public policy will be implemented or not, is the Prince System. The Prince System, actually, presents a technique for assessing the relative support or opposition to a particular policy from individuals, groups or organizations.

  6. Introduction: Discourse Analysis and Policy Discourse

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.R. Gasper (Des); R.J. Apthorpe (Raymond)

    1996-01-01

    markdownabstractAbstract: As introduction to a collection on policy discourses and patterns of argumentation in international development, this paper clarifies different meanings of `discourse' and 'discourse analysis', including as applied in development studies, and explains why effective

  7. MICROECONOMIC ANALYSIS IN COMPETITION POLICY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Prisecaru

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents some of the most important microeconomic tools used in assessing antitrust and merger cases by the competition authorities. By explaining the way that microeconomic concepts like “market power”, “critical loss” or “price elasticity of demand” are used by the modern competition policy, the microeconomics scholar can get a practical perspective on the way that these concepts fit into the more general concept of “competition policy”. Extensive economic research has shown what are the market forces and economic factors that determine how cartels, which are at the core of antitrust policy, are established and sustained over time. One of the most important of these factors is the markets exposure to innovation, especially disruptive innovation. In these markets, the paradox, from a competition policy perspective, can be considered the fact that collusion is one of the least important concerns, due to the specific elements that determine the nature of competition.Instead, the main anticompetitive risk in the markets exposed to intensive innovation is unilateral conduct by which dominant incumbents can exclude competitors.

  8. Stochastic time series analysis of hydrology data for water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathish, S.; Khadar Babu, S. K.

    2017-11-01

    The prediction to current publication of stochastic time series analysis in hydrology and seasonal stage. The different statistical tests for predicting the hydrology time series on Thomas-Fiering model. The hydrology time series of flood flow have accept a great deal of consideration worldwide. The concentration of stochastic process areas of time series analysis method are expanding with develop concerns about seasonal periods and global warming. The recent trend by the researchers for testing seasonal periods in the hydrologic flowseries using stochastic process on Thomas-Fiering model. The present article proposed to predict the seasonal periods in hydrology using Thomas-Fiering model.

  9. Economic Analysis in Series-Distillation Desalination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirna Rahmah Lubis

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The ability to produce potable water economically is the primary purpose of seawater desalination research. Reverse osmosis (RO and multi-stage flash (MSF cost more than potable water produced from fresh water resources. Therefore, this research investigates a high-efficiency mechanical vapor-compression distillation system that employs an improved water flow arrangement. The incoming salt concentration was 0.15% salt for brackish water and 3.5% salt for seawater, whereas the outgoing salt concentration was 1.5% and 7%, respectively. Distillation was performed at 439 K and 722 kPa for both brackish water feed and seawater feed. Water costs of the various conditions were calculated for brackish water and seawater feeds using optimum conditions considered as 25 and 20 stages, respectively. For brackish water at a temperature difference of 0.96 K, the energy requirement is 2.0 kWh/m3. At this condition, the estimated water cost is $0.39/m3 achieved with 10,000,000 gal/day distillate, 30-year bond, 5% interest rate, and $0.05/kWh electricity. For seawater at a temperature difference of 0.44 K, the energy requirement is 3.97 kWh/m3 and the estimated water cost is $0.61/m3. Greater efficiency of the vapor compression system is achieved by connecting multiple evaporators in series, rather than the traditional parallel arrangement. The efficiency results from the gradual increase of salinity in each stage of the series arrangement in comparison to parallel. Calculations using various temperature differences between boiling brine and condensing steam show the series arrangement has the greatest improvement at lower temperature differences. Keywords: desalination, dropwise condensation, mechanical-vapor compression

  10. Analysis of JET ELMy time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zvejnieks, G.; Kuzovkov, V.N.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: Achievement of the planned operational regime in the next generation tokamaks (such as ITER) still faces principal problems. One of the main challenges is obtaining the control of edge localized modes (ELMs), which should lead to both long plasma pulse times and reasonable divertor life time. In order to control ELMs the hypothesis was proposed by Degeling [1] that ELMs exhibit features of chaotic dynamics and thus a standard chaos control methods might be applicable. However, our findings which are based on the nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) model contradict this hypothesis for JET ELMy time-series. In turn, it means that ELM behavior is of a relaxation or random type. These conclusions coincide with our previous results obtained for ASDEX Upgrade time series [2]. [1] A.W. Degeling, Y.R. Martin, P.E. Bak, J. B.Lister, and X. Llobet, Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 43, 1671 (2001). [2] G. Zvejnieks, V.N. Kuzovkov, O. Dumbrajs, A.W. Degeling, W. Suttrop, H. Urano, and H. Zohm, Physics of Plasmas 11, 5658 (2004)

  11. A Comparative Analysis of Short Time Series Processing Methods

    OpenAIRE

    Kiršners, A; Borisovs, A

    2012-01-01

    This article analyzes the traditional time series processing methods that are used to perform the task of short time series analysis in demand forecasting. The main aim of this paper is to scrutinize the ability of these methods to be used when analyzing short time series. The analyzed methods include exponential smoothing, exponential smoothing with the development trend and moving average method. The paper gives the description of the structure and main operating princi...

  12. Infectious spondylodiscitis - a case series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garkowski, Adam; Zajkowska, Agata; Czupryna, Piotr; Lebkowski, Wojciech; Letmanowski, Michał; Gołębicki, Paweł; Moniuszko, Anna; Ustymowicz, Andrzej; Pancewicz, Sławomir; Zajkowska, Joanna

    2014-03-01

    We aimed to describe the clinical and laboratory features as well as diagnostic difficulties in the case series of spondylodiscitis. We retrospectively reviewed 11 cases of spondylodiscitis. The diagnosis of spondylodiscitis was based on clinical, radiological and microbiological evidence and by the response to antimicrobial therapy. There were 7 men and 4 women, and the age ranged from 21 to 74 years. Risk factors of spondylodiscitis were observed in 7 patients. The approximate time from onset of symptoms to diagnosis was from 2 to 7 months (median 45 days). Back pain was the most common symptom. The most frequent location of spondylodiscitis was lumbar spine. Pathogens were isolated in 6 cases and were as follows: Staphylococcus aureus (4 cases), Staphylococcus warneri (1 case) and Escherichia coli (1 case). After therapy, all patients had rapid regression of symptoms and no permanent neurological impairments and recurrence of infection were observed. Diagnosis of spondylodiscitis is frequently delayed. This disease should be taken into consideration in differential diagnosis in patients with root syndromes accompanied by back pain and usually fever as well as increased values of CRP and ESR. Copyright © 2014 Medical University of Bialystok. Published by Elsevier Urban & Partner Sp. z o.o. All rights reserved.

  13. Policy analysis of electricity demand flexibility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Katz, Jonas

    The large-scale development of variable renewable energy sources, like wind and solar power, increases the demand for flexibility in power systems. At the same time, their electricity production replaces that of conventional power plants – the traditional suppliers of flexibility, and consequently...... include a clear commitment to develop an "intelligent" energy system that utilises the flexibility potential of the demand side, a coherent policy strategy covering all aspects of the flexibility challenge has not yet been defined. By use of economic models and concepts of policy analysis, this thesis...... flexibility on the demand side. Its potential could be substantial and technical solutions are available. Still, demand flexibility is largely unutilised and establishing an enabling policy and regulatory framework has been identified as one of the major challenges. While the latest Danish energy policies...

  14. Topic Time Series Analysis of Microblogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-01

    of residence. Topic 158, Distance: 3.7809 Top words: 1. tracking 2. graffiti 3. station 4. plaza 5. mariachi Analysis: This topic describes Tweets by a... graffiti tracking service hired by the LA Metro Link. On the righthand side are the locations of the Metro Link stations in the area, which

  15. A Dimensionality Reduction Technique for Efficient Time Series Similarity Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qiang; Megalooikonomou, Vasileios

    2008-01-01

    We propose a dimensionality reduction technique for time series analysis that significantly improves the efficiency and accuracy of similarity searches. In contrast to piecewise constant approximation (PCA) techniques that approximate each time series with constant value segments, the proposed method--Piecewise Vector Quantized Approximation--uses the closest (based on a distance measure) codeword from a codebook of key-sequences to represent each segment. The new representation is symbolic and it allows for the application of text-based retrieval techniques into time series similarity analysis. Experiments on real and simulated datasets show that the proposed technique generally outperforms PCA techniques in clustering and similarity searches. PMID:18496587

  16. A Dimensionality Reduction Technique for Efficient Time Series Similarity Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qiang; Megalooikonomou, Vasileios

    2008-03-01

    We propose a dimensionality reduction technique for time series analysis that significantly improves the efficiency and accuracy of similarity searches. In contrast to piecewise constant approximation (PCA) techniques that approximate each time series with constant value segments, the proposed method--Piecewise Vector Quantized Approximation--uses the closest (based on a distance measure) codeword from a codebook of key-sequences to represent each segment. The new representation is symbolic and it allows for the application of text-based retrieval techniques into time series similarity analysis. Experiments on real and simulated datasets show that the proposed technique generally outperforms PCA techniques in clustering and similarity searches.

  17. Time Series Factor Analysis with an Application to Measuring Money

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gilbert, Paul D.; Meijer, Erik

    2005-01-01

    Time series factor analysis (TSFA) and its associated statistical theory is developed. Unlike dynamic factor analysis (DFA), TSFA obviates the need for explicitly modeling the process dynamics of the underlying phenomena. It also differs from standard factor analysis (FA) in important respects: the

  18. Discontinuous conduction mode analysis of phase-modulated series ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Utsab Kundu

    to validate the analysis. Keywords. Discontinuous conduction mode (DCM); phase modulation; series resonant converter (SRC); time domain analysis; frequency domain analysis; critical load resistance. 1. Introduction. High efficiency and power density are reportedly achieved in dc–dc converters by adopting soft-switching ...

  19. Time averaging, ageing and delay analysis of financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherstvy, Andrey G.; Vinod, Deepak; Aghion, Erez; Chechkin, Aleksei V.; Metzler, Ralf

    2017-06-01

    We introduce three strategies for the analysis of financial time series based on time averaged observables. These comprise the time averaged mean squared displacement (MSD) as well as the ageing and delay time methods for varying fractions of the financial time series. We explore these concepts via statistical analysis of historic time series for several Dow Jones Industrial indices for the period from the 1960s to 2015. Remarkably, we discover a simple universal law for the delay time averaged MSD. The observed features of the financial time series dynamics agree well with our analytical results for the time averaged measurables for geometric Brownian motion, underlying the famed Black-Scholes-Merton model. The concepts we promote here are shown to be useful for financial data analysis and enable one to unveil new universal features of stock market dynamics.

  20. The New Education Philanthropy: Politics, Policy, and Reform. Educational Innovations Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, Frederick M., Ed.; Henig, Jeffrey R., Ed.

    2015-01-01

    Philanthropic foundations play an increasingly influential role in education research, policy, and practice--yet this sector has been subject to little research-informed analysis. In "The New Education Philanthropy," Frederick M. Hess and Jeffrey R. Henig convene a diverse group of scholars and analysts to examine the shifting role of…

  1. Time Series Analysis of Insar Data: Methods and Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osmanoglu, Batuhan; Sunar, Filiz; Wdowinski, Shimon; Cano-Cabral, Enrique

    2015-01-01

    Time series analysis of InSAR data has emerged as an important tool for monitoring and measuring the displacement of the Earth's surface. Changes in the Earth's surface can result from a wide range of phenomena such as earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, variations in ground water levels, and changes in wetland water levels. Time series analysis is applied to interferometric phase measurements, which wrap around when the observed motion is larger than one-half of the radar wavelength. Thus, the spatio-temporal ''unwrapping" of phase observations is necessary to obtain physically meaningful results. Several different algorithms have been developed for time series analysis of InSAR data to solve for this ambiguity. These algorithms may employ different models for time series analysis, but they all generate a first-order deformation rate, which can be compared to each other. However, there is no single algorithm that can provide optimal results in all cases. Since time series analyses of InSAR data are used in a variety of applications with different characteristics, each algorithm possesses inherently unique strengths and weaknesses. In this review article, following a brief overview of InSAR technology, we discuss several algorithms developed for time series analysis of InSAR data using an example set of results for measuring subsidence rates in Mexico City.

  2. Stochastic Analysis : A Series of Lectures

    CERN Document Server

    Dozzi, Marco; Flandoli, Franco; Russo, Francesco

    2015-01-01

    This book presents in thirteen refereed survey articles an overview of modern activity in stochastic analysis, written by leading international experts. The topics addressed include stochastic fluid dynamics and regularization by noise of deterministic dynamical systems; stochastic partial differential equations driven by Gaussian or Lévy noise, including the relationship between parabolic equations and particle systems, and wave equations in a geometric framework; Malliavin calculus and applications to stochastic numerics; stochastic integration in Banach spaces; porous media-type equations; stochastic deformations of classical mechanics and Feynman integrals and stochastic differential equations with reflection. The articles are based on short courses given at the Centre Interfacultaire Bernoulli of the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland, from January to June 2012. They offer a valuable resource not only for specialists, but also for other researchers and Ph.D. students in the fields o...

  3. The Application of Bayesian Spectral Analysis in Photometric Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    saeideh latif

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The present paper introduces the Bayesian spectral analysis as a powerful and efficient method for spectral analysis of photometric time series. For this purpose, Bayesian spectral analysis has programmed in Matlab software for XZ Dra photometric time series which is non-uniform with large gaps and the power spectrum of this analysis has compared with the power spectrum which obtained from the Period04 software, which designed for statistical analysis of astronomical time series and used of artificial data for unify the time series. Although in the power spectrum of this software, the main spectral peak which represent the main frequency of XZ Dra variable star oscillations in the f = 2.09864 (day -1 is well known but false spectral peaks are also seen. Also, in this software it’s not clear how to generate the synthetic data. These false peaks have been removed in the power spectrum which obtained from the Bayesian analysis; also this spectral peak which is around the desired frequency has a shorter width and is more accurate. It should be noted that in Bayesian spectral analysis, it’s not require to unify the time series for obtaining a desired power spectrum. Moreover, the researcher also becomes aware of the exact calculation process.

  4. Policy Analysis, International Relations, and European Governance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Mads Christian Dagnis; Tatham, Michaël

    2017-01-01

    The article highlights the rationale of the special issue in terms of its objectives and guiding principles. It maps different evolutions and challenges within three analytical streams (1) regarding the field of policy analysis, (2) concerning the interaction between domestic and international...

  5. Interpretive policy analysis in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Bommel, Severine; van Hulst, M.J.; Yanow, Dvora; van Nispen, Frans; Scholten, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This chapter outlines the character of interpretive policy analysis (IPA) and then looks at the history and present state of its practice in the Netherlands. In an approach commonly found in science studies, that history is traced through key actors and their publications, institutional locations,

  6. Transition Icons for Time-Series Visualization and Exploratory Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nickerson, Paul V; Baharloo, Raheleh; Wanigatunga, Amal A; Manini, Todd M; Tighe, Patrick J; Rashidi, Parisa

    2018-03-01

    The modern healthcare landscape has seen the rapid emergence of techniques and devices that temporally monitor and record physiological signals. The prevalence of time-series data within the healthcare field necessitates the development of methods that can analyze the data in order to draw meaningful conclusions. Time-series behavior is notoriously difficult to intuitively understand due to its intrinsic high-dimensionality, which is compounded in the case of analyzing groups of time series collected from different patients. Our framework, which we call transition icons, renders common patterns in a visual format useful for understanding the shared behavior within groups of time series. Transition icons are adept at detecting and displaying subtle differences and similarities, e.g., between measurements taken from patients receiving different treatment strategies or stratified by demographics. We introduce various methods that collectively allow for exploratory analysis of groups of time series, while being free of distribution assumptions and including simple heuristics for parameter determination. Our technique extracts discrete transition patterns from symbolic aggregate approXimation representations, and compiles transition frequencies into a bag of patterns constructed for each group. These transition frequencies are normalized and aligned in icon form to intuitively display the underlying patterns. We demonstrate the transition icon technique for two time-series datasets-postoperative pain scores, and hip-worn accelerometer activity counts. We believe transition icons can be an important tool for researchers approaching time-series data, as they give rich and intuitive information about collective time-series behaviors.

  7. Education Policy Outlook: Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueroa, Diana Toledo; Golden, Gillian; Giovinazzo, Manon; Peterka, Judith; Ullmann, Marie

    2017-01-01

    This policy profile on education in Austria is part of the "Education Policy Outlook" series, which presents comparative analysis of education policies and reforms across OECD countries. Building on the OECD's substantial comparative and sectoral knowledge base, the series offers a comparative outlook on education policy by providing…

  8. Volatility Analysis of Bitcoin Price Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukáš Pichl

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Bitcoin has the largest share in the total capitalization of cryptocurrency markets currently reaching above 70 billion USD. In this work we focus on the price of Bitcoin in terms of standard currencies and their volatility over the last five years. The average day-to-day return throughout this period is 0.328%, amounting in exponential growth from 6 USD to over 4,000 USD per 1 BTC at present. Multi-scale analysis is performed from the level of the tick data, through the 5 min, 1 hour and 1 day scales. Distribution of trading volumes (1 sec, 1 min, 1 hour and 1 day aggregated from the Kraken BTCEUR tick data is provided that shows the artifacts of algorithmic trading (selling transactions with volume peaks distributed at integer multiples of BTC unit. Arbitrage opportunities are studied using the EUR, USD and CNY currencies. Whereas the arbitrage spread for EUR-USD currency pair is found narrow at the order of a percent, at the 1 hour sampling period the arbitrage spread for USD-CNY (and similarly EUR-CNY is found to be more substantial, reaching as high as above 5 percent on rare occasions. The volatility of BTC exchange rates is modeled using the day-to-day distribution of logarithmic return, and the Realized Volatility, sum of the squared logarithmic returns on 5-minute basis. In this work we demonstrate that the Heterogeneous Autoregressive model for Realized Volatility Andersen et al. (2007 applies reasonably well to the BTCUSD dataset. Finally, a feed-forward neural network with 2 hidden layers using 10-day moving window sampling daily return predictors is applied to estimate the next-day logarithmic return. The results show that such an artificial neural network prediction is capable of approximate capture of the actual log return distribution; more sophisticated methods, such as recurrent neural networks and LSTM (Long Short Term Memory techniques from deep learning may be necessary for higher prediction accuracy.

  9. Multivariate time series analysis with R and financial applications

    CERN Document Server

    Tsay, Ruey S

    2013-01-01

    Since the publication of his first book, Analysis of Financial Time Series, Ruey Tsay has become one of the most influential and prominent experts on the topic of time series. Different from the traditional and oftentimes complex approach to multivariate (MV) time series, this sequel book emphasizes structural specification, which results in simplified parsimonious VARMA modeling and, hence, eases comprehension. Through a fundamental balance between theory and applications, the book supplies readers with an accessible approach to financial econometric models and their applications to real-worl

  10. Policy analysis and recommendations for the DCM research data exchange.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    This report is a policy analysis and set of recommendations regarding open data policies and policies for new, transformative data environments that are being developed as part of the Connected Vehicle research program. It is presented in three secti...

  11. Seasonal dynamics of bacterial meningitis: a time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paireau, Juliette; Chen, Angelica; Broutin, Helene; Grenfell, Bryan; Basta, Nicole E

    2016-06-01

    Bacterial meningitis, which is caused mainly by Neisseria meningitidis, Haemophilus influenzae, and Streptococcus pneumoniae, inflicts a substantial burden of disease worldwide. Yet, the temporal dynamics of this disease are poorly characterised and many questions remain about the ecology of the disease. We aimed to comprehensively assess seasonal trends in bacterial meningitis on a global scale. We developed the first bacterial meningitis global database by compiling monthly incidence data as reported by country-level surveillance systems. Using country-level wavelet analysis, we identified whether a 12 month periodic component (annual seasonality) was detected in time-series that had at least 5 years of data with at least 40 cases reported per year. We estimated the mean timing of disease activity by computing the centre of gravity of the distribution of cases and investigated whether synchrony exists between the three pathogens responsible for most cases of bacterial meningitis. We used country-level data from 66 countries, including from 47 countries outside the meningitis belt in sub-Saharan Africa. A persistent seasonality was detected in 49 (96%) of the 51 time-series from 38 countries eligible for inclusion in the wavelet analyses. The mean timing of disease activity had a latitudinal trend, with bacterial meningitis seasons peaking during the winter months in countries in both the northern and southern hemispheres. The three pathogens shared similar seasonality, but time-shifts differed slightly by country. Our findings provide key insight into the seasonal dynamics of bacterial meningitis and add to knowledge about the global epidemiology of meningitis and the host, environment, and pathogen characteristics driving these patterns. Comprehensive understanding of global seasonal trends in meningitis could be used to design more effective prevention and control strategies. Princeton University Health Grand Challenge, US National Institutes of Health (NIH

  12. Elements of nonlinear time series analysis and forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    De Gooijer, Jan G

    2017-01-01

    This book provides an overview of the current state-of-the-art of nonlinear time series analysis, richly illustrated with examples, pseudocode algorithms and real-world applications. Avoiding a “theorem-proof” format, it shows concrete applications on a variety of empirical time series. The book can be used in graduate courses in nonlinear time series and at the same time also includes interesting material for more advanced readers. Though it is largely self-contained, readers require an understanding of basic linear time series concepts, Markov chains and Monte Carlo simulation methods. The book covers time-domain and frequency-domain methods for the analysis of both univariate and multivariate (vector) time series. It makes a clear distinction between parametric models on the one hand, and semi- and nonparametric models/methods on the other. This offers the reader the option of concentrating exclusively on one of these nonlinear time series analysis methods. To make the book as user friendly as possible...

  13. Financial Time-series Analysis: a Brief Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborti, A.; Patriarca, M.; Santhanam, M. S.

    Prices of commodities or assets produce what is called time-series. Different kinds of financial time-series have been recorded and studied for decades. Nowadays, all transactions on a financial market are recorded, leading to a huge amount of data available, either for free in the Internet or commercially. Financial time-series analysis is of great interest to practitioners as well as to theoreticians, for making inferences and predictions. Furthermore, the stochastic uncertainties inherent in financial time-series and the theory needed to deal with them make the subject especially interesting not only to economists, but also to statisticians and physicists [1]. While it would be a formidable task to make an exhaustive review on the topic, with this review we try to give a flavor of some of its aspects.

  14. Handbook of Time Series Analysis Recent Theoretical Developments and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Schelter, Björn; Timmer, Jens

    2006-01-01

    This handbook provides an up-to-date survey of current research topics and applications of time series analysis methods written by leading experts in their fields. It covers recent developments in univariate as well as bivariate and multivariate time series analysis techniques ranging from physics' to life sciences' applications. Each chapter comprises both methodological aspects and applications to real world complex systems, such as the human brain or Earth's climate. Covering an exceptionally broad spectrum of topics, beginners, experts and practitioners who seek to understand the latest de

  15. Multiresolution analysis of Bursa Malaysia KLCI time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Dghais, Amel Abdoullah Ahmed

    2017-05-01

    In general, a time series is simply a sequence of numbers collected at regular intervals over a period. Financial time series data processing is concerned with the theory and practice of processing asset price over time, such as currency, commodity data, and stock market data. The primary aim of this study is to understand the fundamental characteristics of selected financial time series by using the time as well as the frequency domain analysis. After that prediction can be executed for the desired system for in sample forecasting. In this study, multiresolution analysis which the assist of discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) and maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) will be used to pinpoint special characteristics of Bursa Malaysia KLCI (Kuala Lumpur Composite Index) daily closing prices and return values. In addition, further case study discussions include the modeling of Bursa Malaysia KLCI using linear ARIMA with wavelets to address how multiresolution approach improves fitting and forecasting results.

  16. Time series analysis and its applications with R examples

    CERN Document Server

    Shumway, Robert H

    2017-01-01

    The fourth edition of this popular graduate textbook, like its predecessors, presents a balanced and comprehensive treatment of both time and frequency domain methods with accompanying theory. Numerous examples using nontrivial data illustrate solutions to problems such as discovering natural and anthropogenic climate change, evaluating pain perception experiments using functional magnetic resonance imaging, and monitoring a nuclear test ban treaty. The book is designed as a textbook for graduate level students in the physical, biological, and social sciences and as a graduate level text in statistics. Some parts may also serve as an undergraduate introductory course. Theory and methodology are separated to allow presentations on different levels. In addition to coverage of classical methods of time series regression, ARIMA models, spectral analysis and state-space models, the text includes modern developments including categorical time series analysis, multivariate spectral methods, long memory series, nonli...

  17. On the Application of Information in Time Series Analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Klán, Petr; Wilkie, J.; Ankenbrand, T.

    1998-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 1 (1998), s. 39-49 ISSN 1210-0552 Grant - others:Fonds National Suisse de la Recherche Scientifique (XE) CP93:9630 Keywords : time series analysis * measurement and application of information Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics

  18. Time series analysis in astronomy: Limits and potentialities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vio, R.; Kristensen, N.R.; Madsen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we consider the problem of the limits concerning the physical information that can be extracted from the analysis of one or more time series ( light curves) typical of astrophysical objects. On the basis of theoretical considerations and numerical simulations, we show that with no a...

  19. Time series analysis in chaotic diode resonator circuit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanias, M.P. [TEI of Chalkis, GR 34400, Evia, Chalkis (Greece)] e-mail: mhanias@teihal.gr; Giannaris, G. [TEI of Chalkis, GR 34400, Evia, Chalkis (Greece); Spyridakis, A. [TEI of Chalkis, GR 34400, Evia, Chalkis (Greece); Rigas, A. [TEI of Chalkis, GR 34400, Evia, Chalkis (Greece)

    2006-01-01

    A diode resonator chaotic circuit is presented. Multisim is used to simulate the circuit and show the presence of chaos. Time series analysis performed by the method proposed by Grasberger and Procaccia. The correlation and minimum embedding dimension {nu} and m {sub min}, respectively, were calculated. Also the corresponding Kolmogorov entropy was calculated.

  20. Time series analysis in chaotic diode resonator circuit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanias, M.P.; Giannaris, G.; Spyridakis, A.; Rigas, A.

    2006-01-01

    A diode resonator chaotic circuit is presented. Multisim is used to simulate the circuit and show the presence of chaos. Time series analysis performed by the method proposed by Grasberger and Procaccia. The correlation and minimum embedding dimension ν and m min , respectively, were calculated. Also the corresponding Kolmogorov entropy was calculated

  1. Growth And Export Expansion In Mauritius - A Time Series Analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper analyses the empirical relationship between economic growth and export expansion in Mauritius as observed through time series data. Using Granger Causality tests, the short-run analysis results revealed that there is significant reciprocal causality between real export earnings (total, textiles and manufacturing) ...

  2. Analysis and implementation of LLC-T series parallel resonant ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A prototype 300 W, 100 kHz converter is designed and built to experimentally demonstrate, dynamic and steady state performance for the LLC-T series parallel resonant converter. A comparative study is performed between experimental results and the simulation studies. The analysis shows that the output of converter is ...

  3. Cross-impacts analysis development and energy policy analysis applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roop, J.M.; Scheer, R.M.; Stacey, G.S.

    1986-12-01

    Purpose of this report is to describe the cross-impact analysis process and microcomputer software developed for the Office of Policy, Planning, and Analysis (PPA) of DOE. First introduced in 1968, cross-impact analysis is a technique that produces scenarios of future conditions and possibilities. Cross-impact analysis has several unique attributes that make it a tool worth examining, especially in the current climate when the outlook for the economy and several of the key energy markets is uncertain. Cross-impact analysis complements the econometric, engineering, systems dynamics, or trend approaches already in use at DOE. Cross-impact analysis produces self-consistent scenarios in the broadest sense and can include interaction between the economy, technology, society and the environment. Energy policy analyses that couple broad scenarios of the future with detailed forecasting can produce more powerful results than scenario analysis or forecasts can produce alone.

  4. Interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy: A critical analysis of China's policy approach to renewable energies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Sufang; Andrews-Speed, Philip; Zhao, Xiaoli; He, Yongxiu

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes China's policy approach to renewable energies and assesses how effectively China has met the ideal of appropriate interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy. First we briefly discuss the interactions between these two policies. Then we outline China's key renewable energy and renewable industrial policies and find that China's government has well recognized the need for this policy interaction. After that, we study the achievements and problems in China's wind and solar PV sector during 2005–2012 and argue that China's policy approach to renewable energies has placed priority first on developing a renewable energy manufacturing industry and only second on renewable energy itself, and it has not effectively met the ideal of appropriate interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy. Lastly, we make an in-depth analysis of the three ideas underlying this policy approach, that is, the green development idea, the low-carbon leadership idea and indigenous innovation idea. We conclude that Chinas' policy approach to renewable energies needs to enhance the interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy. The paper contributes to a deeper understanding of China's policy strategy toward renewable energies. -- Highlights: •Interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy are discussed. •China's key renewable energy and renewable energy industrial policies are outlined. •Two empirical cases illustrate China's policy approach to renewable energies. •We argue that China needs to enhance the interactions between the two policies. •Three ideas underlie China's policy approach to renewable energies

  5. Analysis of maternal and child health policies in Malawi: The ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Analysis of maternal and child health policies in. Malawi: The methodological perspective. Abstract. The question of why most health policies do not achieve their intended results continues to receive a considerable attention in the literature. This is in the light of the recognized gap between policy as intent and policy.

  6. Time series analysis methods and applications for flight data

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Jianye

    2017-01-01

    This book focuses on different facets of flight data analysis, including the basic goals, methods, and implementation techniques. As mass flight data possesses the typical characteristics of time series, the time series analysis methods and their application for flight data have been illustrated from several aspects, such as data filtering, data extension, feature optimization, similarity search, trend monitoring, fault diagnosis, and parameter prediction, etc. An intelligent information-processing platform for flight data has been established to assist in aircraft condition monitoring, training evaluation and scientific maintenance. The book will serve as a reference resource for people working in aviation management and maintenance, as well as researchers and engineers in the fields of data analysis and data mining.

  7. Carbon Sequestration in Colorado's Lands: A Spatial and Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, N.; Brazeau, A.; Browning, K.; Meier, R.

    2017-12-01

    Managing landscapes to enhance terrestrial carbon sequestration has significant potential to mitigate climate change. While a previous carbon baseline assessment in Colorado has been published (Conant et al, 2007), our study pulls from the existing literature to conduct an updated baseline assessment of carbon stocks and a unique review of carbon policies in Colorado. Through a multi-level spatial analysis based in GIS and informed by a literature review, we established a carbon stock baseline and ran four land use and carbon stock projection scenarios using Monte Carlo simulations. We identified 11 key policy recommendations for improving Colorado's carbon stocks, and evaluated each using Bardach's policy matrix approach (Bardach, 2012). We utilized a series of case studies to support our policy recommendations. We found that Colorado's lands have a carbon stock of 3,334 MMT CO2eq, with Forests and Woodlands holding the largest stocks, at 1,490 and 774 MMT CO2eq respectively. Avoided conversion of all Grasslands, Forests, and Wetlands in Colorado projected over 40 years would increase carbon stocks by 32 MMT CO2eq, 1,053 MMT CO2eq, and 36 MMT CO2eq, respectively. Over the 40-year study period, Forests and Woodlands areas are projected to shrink while Shrublands and Developed areas are projected to grow. Those projections suggest sizable increases in area of future wildfires and development in Colorado. We found that numerous policy opportunities to sequester carbon exist at different jurisdictional levels and across land cover types. The largest opportunities were found in state-level policies and policies impacting Forests, Grasslands, and Wetlands. The passage of statewide emission reduction legislation has the highest potential to impact carbon sequestration, although political and administrative feasibility of this option are relatively low. This study contributes to the broader field of carbon sequestration literature by examining the nexus of carbon stocks

  8. An entropic approach to the analysis of time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scafetta, Nicola

    Statistical analysis of time series. With compelling arguments we show that the Diffusion Entropy Analysis (DEA) is the only method of the literature of the Science of Complexity that correctly determines the scaling hidden within a time series reflecting a Complex Process. The time series is thought of as a source of fluctuations, and the DEA is based on the Shannon entropy of the diffusion process generated by these fluctuations. All traditional methods of scaling analysis, instead, are based on the variance of this diffusion process. The variance methods detect the real scaling only if the Gaussian assumption holds true. We call H the scaling exponent detected by the variance methods and delta the real scaling exponent. If the time series is characterized by Fractional Brownian Motion, we have H = delta and the scaling can be safely determined, in this case, by using the variance methods. If, on the contrary, the time series is characterized, for example, by Levy statistics, H ≠ delta and the variance methods cannot be used to detect the true scaling. Levy walk yields the relation delta = 1/(3 - 2H). In the case of Levy flights, the variance diverges and the exponent H cannot be determined, whereas the scaling delta exists and can be established by using the DEA. Therefore, only the joint use of two different scaling analysis methods, the variance scaling analysis and the DEA, can assess the real nature, Gauss or Levy or something else, of a time series. Moreover, the DEA determines the information content, under the form of Shannon entropy, or of any other convenient entropic indicator, at each time step of the process that, given a sufficiently large number of data, is expected to become diffusion with scaling. This makes it possible to study the regime of transition from dynamics to thermodynamics, non-stationary regimes, and the saturation regime as well. First of all, the efficiency of the DEA is proved with theoretical arguments and with numerical work

  9. Negociatrix policy game: building capacities in trade policy analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balie, J.; Hofwegen, van G.; Jongeneel, R.; Koning, N.B.J.

    2007-01-01

    The Negociatrix Policy Game is a tool for training in multilateral negotiation, which has been developed through a partnership between FAO and the University of Wageningen in the Netherlands. This tool is a software based on a quantitative model and a simulation that consents to underline the

  10. Mathematical methods in time series analysis and digital image processing

    CERN Document Server

    Kurths, J; Maass, P; Timmer, J

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this volume is to bring together research directions in theoretical signal and imaging processing developed rather independently in electrical engineering, theoretical physics, mathematics and the computer sciences. In particular, mathematically justified algorithms and methods, the mathematical analysis of these algorithms, and methods as well as the investigation of connections between methods from time series analysis and image processing are reviewed. An interdisciplinary comparison of these methods, drawing upon common sets of test problems from medicine and geophysical/enviromental sciences, is also addressed. This volume coherently summarizes work carried out in the field of theoretical signal and image processing. It focuses on non-linear and non-parametric models for time series as well as on adaptive methods in image processing.

  11. Time series analysis of nuclear instrumentation in EBR-II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Imel, G.R.

    1996-05-01

    Results of a time series analysis of the scaler count data from the 3 wide range nuclear detectors in the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II are presented. One of the channels was replaced, and it was desired to determine if there was any statistically significant change (ie, improvement) in the channel`s response after the replacement. Data were collected from all 3 channels for 16-day periods before and after detector replacement. Time series analysis and statistical tests showed that there was no significant change after the detector replacement. Also, there were no statistically significant differences among the 3 channels, either before or after the replacement. Finally, it was determined that errors in the reactivity change inferred from subcritical count monitoring during fuel handling would be on the other of 20-30 cents for single count intervals.

  12. Time series analysis of nuclear instrumentation in EBR-II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imel, G.R.

    1996-01-01

    Results of a time series analysis of the scaler count data from the 3 wide range nuclear detectors in the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II are presented. One of the channels was replaced, and it was desired to determine if there was any statistically significant change (ie, improvement) in the channel's response after the replacement. Data were collected from all 3 channels for 16-day periods before and after detector replacement. Time series analysis and statistical tests showed that there was no significant change after the detector replacement. Also, there were no statistically significant differences among the 3 channels, either before or after the replacement. Finally, it was determined that errors in the reactivity change inferred from subcritical count monitoring during fuel handling would be on the other of 20-30 cents for single count intervals

  13. Risk analysis and bioeconomics of invasive species to inform policy and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    David M. Lodge; Paul W. Simonin; Stanley W. Burgiel; Reuben P. Keller; Jonathan M. Bossenbroek; Christopher L. Jerde; Andrew M. Kramer; Edward S. Rutherford; Matthew A. Barnes; Marion E. Wittmann; W. Lindsay Chadderton; Jenny L. Apriesnig; Dmitry Beletsky; Roger M. Cooke; John M. Drake; Scott P. Egan; David C. Finnoff; Crysta A. Gantz; Erin K. Grey; Michael H. Hoff; Jennifer G. Howeth; Richard A. Jensen; Eric R. Larson; Nicholas E. Mandrak; Doran M. Mason; Felix A. Martinez; Tammy J. Newcomb; John D. Rothlisberger; Andrew J. Tucker; Travis W. Warziniack; Hongyan. Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Risk analysis of species invasions links biology and economics, is increasingly mandated by international and national policies, and enables improved management of invasive species. Biological invasions proceed through a series of transition probabilities (i.e., introduction, establishment, spread, and impact), and each of these presents opportunities for...

  14. Analysis and generation of groundwater concentration time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crăciun, Maria; Vamoş, Călin; Suciu, Nicolae

    2018-01-01

    Concentration time series are provided by simulated concentrations of a nonreactive solute transported in groundwater, integrated over the transverse direction of a two-dimensional computational domain and recorded at the plume center of mass. The analysis of a statistical ensemble of time series reveals subtle features that are not captured by the first two moments which characterize the approximate Gaussian distribution of the two-dimensional concentration fields. The concentration time series exhibit a complex preasymptotic behavior driven by a nonstationary trend and correlated fluctuations with time-variable amplitude. Time series with almost the same statistics are generated by successively adding to a time-dependent trend a sum of linear regression terms, accounting for correlations between fluctuations around the trend and their increments in time, and terms of an amplitude modulated autoregressive noise of order one with time-varying parameter. The algorithm generalizes mixing models used in probability density function approaches. The well-known interaction by exchange with the mean mixing model is a special case consisting of a linear regression with constant coefficients.

  15. Notes on economic time series analysis system theoretic perspectives

    CERN Document Server

    Aoki, Masanao

    1983-01-01

    In seminars and graduate level courses I have had several opportunities to discuss modeling and analysis of time series with economists and economic graduate students during the past several years. These experiences made me aware of a gap between what economic graduate students are taught about vector-valued time series and what is available in recent system literature. Wishing to fill or narrow the gap that I suspect is more widely spread than my personal experiences indicate, I have written these notes to augment and reor­ ganize materials I have given in these courses and seminars. I have endeavored to present, in as much a self-contained way as practicable, a body of results and techniques in system theory that I judge to be relevant and useful to economists interested in using time series in their research. I have essentially acted as an intermediary and interpreter of system theoretic results and perspectives in time series by filtering out non-essential details, and presenting coherent accounts of wha...

  16. Topological data analysis of financial time series: Landscapes of crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gidea, Marian; Katz, Yuri

    2018-02-01

    We explore the evolution of daily returns of four major US stock market indices during the technology crash of 2000, and the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Our methodology is based on topological data analysis (TDA). We use persistence homology to detect and quantify topological patterns that appear in multidimensional time series. Using a sliding window, we extract time-dependent point cloud data sets, to which we associate a topological space. We detect transient loops that appear in this space, and we measure their persistence. This is encoded in real-valued functions referred to as a 'persistence landscapes'. We quantify the temporal changes in persistence landscapes via their Lp-norms. We test this procedure on multidimensional time series generated by various non-linear and non-equilibrium models. We find that, in the vicinity of financial meltdowns, the Lp-norms exhibit strong growth prior to the primary peak, which ascends during a crash. Remarkably, the average spectral density at low frequencies of the time series of Lp-norms of the persistence landscapes demonstrates a strong rising trend for 250 trading days prior to either dotcom crash on 03/10/2000, or to the Lehman bankruptcy on 09/15/2008. Our study suggests that TDA provides a new type of econometric analysis, which complements the standard statistical measures. The method can be used to detect early warning signals of imminent market crashes. We believe that this approach can be used beyond the analysis of financial time series presented here.

  17. Cluster analysis of activity-time series in motor learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balslev, Daniela; Nielsen, Finn Å; Futiger, Sally A

    2002-01-01

    Neuroimaging studies of learning focus on brain areas where the activity changes as a function of time. To circumvent the difficult problem of model selection, we used a data-driven analytic tool, cluster analysis, which extracts representative temporal and spatial patterns from the voxel......-time series. The optimal number of clusters was chosen using a cross-validated likelihood method, which highlights the clustering pattern that generalizes best over the subjects. Data were acquired with PET at different time points during practice of a visuomotor task. The results from cluster analysis show...

  18. Nonlinear analysis and prediction of time series in multiphase reactors

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Mingyan

    2014-01-01

    This book reports on important nonlinear aspects or deterministic chaos issues in the systems of multi-phase reactors. The reactors treated in the book include gas-liquid bubble columns, gas-liquid-solid fluidized beds and gas-liquid-solid magnetized fluidized beds. The authors take pressure fluctuations in the bubble columns  as time series for nonlinear analysis, modeling and forecasting. They present qualitative and quantitative non-linear analysis tools which include attractor phase plane plot, correlation dimension, Kolmogorov entropy and largest Lyapunov exponent calculations and local non-linear short-term prediction.

  19. Office of Integrated Assessment and Policy Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parzyck, D.C.

    1980-01-01

    The mission of the Office of Integrated Assessments and Policy Analysis (OIAPA) is to examine current and future policies related to the development and use of energy technologies. The principal ongoing research activity to date has focused on the impacts of several energy sources, including coal, oil shale, solar, and geothermal, from the standpoint of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act. An additional project has recently been initiated on an evaluation of impacts associated with the implementation of the Toxic Substances Control Act. The impacts of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act and the Toxic Substances Control Act on energy supply constitute the principal research focus of OIAPA for the near term. From these studies a research approach will be developed to identify certain common elements in the regulatory evaluation cycle as a means of evaluating subsequent environmental, health, and socioeconomic impact. It is planned that an integrated assessment team examine studies completed or underway on the following aspects of major regulations: health, risk assessment, testing protocols, environment control cost/benefits, institutional structures, and facility siting. This examination would assess the methodologies used, determine the general applicability of such studies, and present in a logical form information that appears to have broad general application. A suggested action plan for the State of Tennessee on radioactive and hazardous waste management is outlined

  20. Biofuel supply chain, market, and policy analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Leilei

    Renewable fuel is receiving an increasing attention as a substitute for fossil based energy. The US Department of Energy (DOE) has employed increasing effort on promoting the advanced biofuel productions. Although the advanced biofuel remains at its early stage, it is expected to play an important role in climate policy in the future in the transportation sector. This dissertation studies the emerging biofuel supply chain and markets by analyzing the production cost, and the outcomes of the biofuel market, including blended fuel market price and quantity, biofuel contract price and quantity, profitability of each stakeholder (farmers, biofuel producers, biofuel blenders) in the market. I also address government policy impacts on the emerging biofuel market. The dissertation is composed with three parts, each in a paper format. The first part studies the supply chain of emerging biofuel industry. Two optimization-based models are built to determine the number of facilities to deploy, facility locations, facility capacities, and operational planning within facilities. Cost analyses have been conducted under a variety of biofuel demand scenarios. It is my intention that this model will shed light on biofuel supply chain design considering operational planning under uncertain demand situations. The second part of the dissertation work focuses on analyzing the interaction between the key stakeholders along the supply chain. A bottom-up equilibrium model is built for the emerging biofuel market to study the competition in the advanced biofuel market, explicitly formulating the interactions between farmers, biofuel producers, blenders, and consumers. The model simulates the profit maximization of multiple market entities by incorporating their competitive decisions in farmers' land allocation, biomass transportation, biofuel production, and biofuel blending. As such, the equilibrium model is capable of and appropriate for policy analysis, especially for those policies

  1. Time Series Analysis, Modeling and Applications A Computational Intelligence Perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Shyi-Ming

    2013-01-01

    Temporal and spatiotemporal data form an inherent fabric of the society as we are faced with streams of data coming from numerous sensors, data feeds, recordings associated with numerous areas of application embracing physical and human-generated phenomena (environmental data, financial markets, Internet activities, etc.). A quest for a thorough analysis, interpretation, modeling and prediction of time series comes with an ongoing challenge for developing models that are both accurate and user-friendly (interpretable). The volume is aimed to exploit the conceptual and algorithmic framework of Computational Intelligence (CI) to form a cohesive and comprehensive environment for building models of time series. The contributions covered in the volume are fully reflective of the wealth of the CI technologies by bringing together ideas, algorithms, and numeric studies, which convincingly demonstrate their relevance, maturity and visible usefulness. It reflects upon the truly remarkable diversity of methodological a...

  2. Policies on Private Education: An Economics Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fengqiao, Yan

    2009-01-01

    Basic principles and analytical methods of economics are used to conduct a preliminary study of state policies for private education in China. It is evident that if public policy is to exert a positive effect on private education, the government must formulate policies at a higher level for private education and give equal attention to choice,…

  3. Time series analysis for psychological research: examining and forecasting change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jebb, Andrew T.; Tay, Louis; Wang, Wei; Huang, Qiming

    2015-01-01

    Psychological research has increasingly recognized the importance of integrating temporal dynamics into its theories, and innovations in longitudinal designs and analyses have allowed such theories to be formalized and tested. However, psychological researchers may be relatively unequipped to analyze such data, given its many characteristics and the general complexities involved in longitudinal modeling. The current paper introduces time series analysis to psychological research, an analytic domain that has been essential for understanding and predicting the behavior of variables across many diverse fields. First, the characteristics of time series data are discussed. Second, different time series modeling techniques are surveyed that can address various topics of interest to psychological researchers, including describing the pattern of change in a variable, modeling seasonal effects, assessing the immediate and long-term impact of a salient event, and forecasting future values. To illustrate these methods, an illustrative example based on online job search behavior is used throughout the paper, and a software tutorial in R for these analyses is provided in the Supplementary Materials. PMID:26106341

  4. Chaotic time series analysis in economics: Balance and perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faggini, Marisa, E-mail: mfaggini@unisa.it [Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, Università di Salerno, Fisciano 84084 (Italy)

    2014-12-15

    The aim of the paper is not to review the large body of work concerning nonlinear time series analysis in economics, about which much has been written, but rather to focus on the new techniques developed to detect chaotic behaviours in economic data. More specifically, our attention will be devoted to reviewing some of these techniques and their application to economic and financial data in order to understand why chaos theory, after a period of growing interest, appears now not to be such an interesting and promising research area.

  5. Chaotic time series analysis in economics: Balance and perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faggini, Marisa

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the paper is not to review the large body of work concerning nonlinear time series analysis in economics, about which much has been written, but rather to focus on the new techniques developed to detect chaotic behaviours in economic data. More specifically, our attention will be devoted to reviewing some of these techniques and their application to economic and financial data in order to understand why chaos theory, after a period of growing interest, appears now not to be such an interesting and promising research area

  6. Industrial electricity demand for Turkey: A structural time series analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dilaver, Zafer; Hunt, Lester C.

    2011-01-01

    This research investigates the relationship between Turkish industrial electricity consumption, industrial value added and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish industrial electricity demand. To achieve this, an industrial electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. In addition to identifying the size and significance of the price and industrial value added (output) elasticities, this technique also uncovers the electricity Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT) for the Turkish industrial sector and is, as far as is known, the first attempt to do this. The results suggest that output and real electricity prices and a UEDT all have an important role to play in driving Turkish industrial electricity demand. Consequently, they should all be incorporated when modelling Turkish industrial electricity demand and the estimated UEDT should arguably be considered in future energy policy decisions concerning the Turkish electricity industry. The output and price elasticities are estimated to be 0.15 and - 0.16 respectively, with an increasing (but at a decreasing rate) UEDT and based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish industrial electricity demand will be somewhere between 97 and 148 TWh by 2020. -- Research Highlights: → Estimated output and price elasticities of 0.15 and -0.16 respectively. → Estimated upward sloping UEDT (i.e. energy using) but at a decreasing rate. → Predicted Turkish industrial electricity demand between 97 and 148 TWh in 2020.

  7. Time series clustering analysis of health-promoting behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Chi-Ta; Hung, Yu-Shiang; Deng, Guang-Feng

    2013-10-01

    Health promotion must be emphasized to achieve the World Health Organization goal of health for all. Since the global population is aging rapidly, ComCare elder health-promoting service was developed by the Taiwan Institute for Information Industry in 2011. Based on the Pender health promotion model, ComCare service offers five categories of health-promoting functions to address the everyday needs of seniors: nutrition management, social support, exercise management, health responsibility, stress management. To assess the overall ComCare service and to improve understanding of the health-promoting behavior of elders, this study analyzed health-promoting behavioral data automatically collected by the ComCare monitoring system. In the 30638 session records collected for 249 elders from January, 2012 to March, 2013, behavior patterns were identified by fuzzy c-mean time series clustering algorithm combined with autocorrelation-based representation schemes. The analysis showed that time series data for elder health-promoting behavior can be classified into four different clusters. Each type reveals different health-promoting needs, frequencies, function numbers and behaviors. The data analysis result can assist policymakers, health-care providers, and experts in medicine, public health, nursing and psychology and has been provided to Taiwan National Health Insurance Administration to assess the elder health-promoting behavior.

  8. Policy Analysis of Road Traffic Injury Prevention in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azami-Aghdash, Saber; Gorji, Hassan Abolghasem; Shabaninejad, Hosein; Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun

    2017-01-01

    Introduction Due to the large number of Road Traffic Injuries (RTIs) in Iran, authorities have implemented a number of policies for the prevention of RTIs. However, a scientific analysis of these policies has thus far been neglected. Therefore, this study was conducted for policy analysis of RTIs prevention in Iran. Methods This qualitative study with a case study approach was conducted in Iran during 2016 in two phases: First, by reviewing literature and documents of the past ten years, policies that have been executed to prevent RTIs in Iran were identified. In the second phase of the study, the identified policies were ranked by prioritization matrices. The two policies with the highest scores were selected. ‘Policy triangle framework’ was used for Policy analyzing. Stakeholders of these policies (42 people) were interviewed. Data were analyzed manually by implementing Content-Analysis methods. Results The policies of “pupil liaisons” and “safety belt” were selected for analysis from thirteen potential identified polices. The results of some studies revealed that safety belts had not been properly used in Iran (less than 80%). There was an eight-year hiatus between the approval of the safety belts policy and implementation of this policy. Eight actors were identified for safety belts policy. Lack of diligence in implementation of the policy, failing to pay adequate attention to education and the culture of driving, and failing to select an organization for the implementation of the policy, were identified as the main weaknesses of this policy. For ‘pupil liaisons’ policy, five actors were identified. Following the implementation of this policy, the number of penalties was reduced (17.9%). Neglecting scientific findings and individual-based nature of the policy were identified as the primary weaknesses of this policy. Conclusions Taking serious measures to properly execute the policy, educating people, selecting an efficient organization that is

  9. The Policy Impact of Social Movements: A Replication Through Qualitative Comparative Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Giugni, Marco; Yamasaki, Sakura

    2009-01-01

    This article reanalyzes the data of a previous study on the policy impact of antinuclear, ecology, and peace movements in three countries with the aim of replicating its findings. Our goal is to see whether using a different analytical technique will yield similar results. The previous study used a regression approach to time-series analysis. Here, we use qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to analyze the previous study’s data. Specifically, we test the two main hypotheses based on the joi...

  10. Cluster analysis of activity-time series in motor learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balslev, Daniela; Nielsen, Finn Årup; Frutiger, Sally A.

    2002-01-01

    Neuroimaging studies of learning focus on brain areas where the activity changes as a function of time. To circumvent the difficult problem of model selection, we used a data-driven analytic tool, cluster analysis, which extracts representative temporal and spatial patterns from the voxel......-time series. The optimal number of clusters was chosen using a cross-validated likelihood method, which highlights the clustering pattern that generalizes best over the subjects. Data were acquired with PET at different time points during practice of a visuomotor task. The results from cluster analysis show...... practice-related activity in a fronto-parieto-cerebellar network, in agreement with previous studies of motor learning. These voxels were separated from a group of voxels showing an unspecific time-effect and another group of voxels, whose activation was an artifact from smoothing. Hum. Brain Mapping 15...

  11. Predicting the Market Potential Using Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halmet Bradosti

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this analysis is to forecast a mini-market sales volume for the period of twelve months starting August 2015 to August 2016. The study is based on the monthly sales in Iraqi Dinar for a private local mini-market for the month of April 2014 to July 2015. As revealed on the graph and of course if the stagnant economic condition continues, the trend of future sales is down-warding. Based on time series analysis, the business may continue to operate and generate small revenues until August 2016. However, due to low sales volume, low profit margin and operating expenses, the revenues may not be adequate enough to produce positive net income and the business may not be able to operate afterward. The principal question rose from this is the forecasting sales in the region will be difficult where the business cycle so dynamic and revolutionary due to systematic risks and unforeseeable future.

  12. Pipe-anchor discontinuity analysis utilizing power series solutions, Bessel functions, and Fourier series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, Dennis K.; Ranson, William F.

    2003-01-01

    One of the paradigmatic classes of problems that frequently arise in piping stress analysis discipline is the effect of local stresses created by supports and restraints attachments. Over the past 20 years, concerns have been identified by both regulatory agencies in the nuclear power industry and others in the process and chemicals industries concerning the effect of various stiff clamping arrangements on the expected life of the pipe and its various piping components. In many of the commonly utilized geometries and arrangements of pipe clamps, the elasticity problem becomes the axisymmetric stress and deformation determination in a hollow cylinder (pipe) subjected to the appropriate boundary conditions and respective loads per se. One of the geometries that serve as a pipe anchor is comprised of two pipe clamps that are bolted tightly to the pipe and affixed to a modified shoe-type arrangement. The shoe is employed for the purpose of providing an immovable base that can be easily attached either by bolting or welding to a structural steel pipe rack. Over the past 50 years, the computational tools available to the piping analyst have changed dramatically and thereby have caused the implementation of solutions to the basic problems of elasticity to change likewise. The need to obtain closed form elasticity solutions, however, has always been a driving force in engineering. The employment of symbolic calculus that is currently available through numerous software packages makes closed form solutions very economical. This paper briefly traces the solutions over the past 50 years to a variety of axisymmetric stress problems involving hollow circular cylinders employing a Fourier series representation. In the present example, a properly chosen Fourier series represent the mathematical simulation of the imposed axial displacements on the outside diametrical surface. A general solution technique is introduced for the axisymmetric discontinuity stresses resulting from an

  13. Reaching beyond Democracy in Educational Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Leigh

    2016-01-01

    Educational policy analyses have tended toward either the impact of policies on student achievement or the furthering of progressive ideals, regularly theorized through concepts of democracy. In this theoretical essay, I suggest that democracy has become a vehicle for cauterized projects of individualized and contingent state status rather than…

  14. Statistical network analysis for analyzing policy networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Robins, Garry; Lewis, Jenny; Wang, Peng

    2012-01-01

    and policy network methodology is the development of statistical modeling approaches that can accommodate such dependent data. In this article, we review three network statistical methods commonly used in the current literature: quadratic assignment procedures, exponential random graph models (ERGMs...... has much to offer in analyzing the policy process....

  15. Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimlou, Masoud; Salehi, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

    2015-01-01

    Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box-Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection.

  16. Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000–2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimlou, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

    2015-01-01

    Background Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. Objectives To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. Methods In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box–Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. Results There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Conclusions The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection. PMID:26119774

  17. Interpretation and Analysis of Privacy Policies of Websites in India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dhotre, Prashant Shantaram; Olesen, Henning; Khajuria, Samant

    2017-01-01

    Privacy policy is vital and legal document that allows websites/companies to communicate users on how data is gathered, the ways of collection, its purpose, and its management. Once user accepts it, the user approves the disclosure of his/her personal/behavioral data to websites under...... the conditions specified in the policy document. So, ideally the privacy policies should be readable and provide sufficient information to empower users to make knowledgeable decisions. Thus, we have examined more than 50 privacy policies and discussed the content analysis in this paper. We discovered...... that the policies are not only unstructured but also described in complicated language. Our analysis shows that the user data security measures are nonspecific and unsatisfactory in 57% privacy policies. In spite of huge amount of information collection, the privacy policies does not have clear description...

  18. Inorganic chemical analysis of environmental materials—A lecture series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crock, J.G.; Lamothe, P.J.

    2011-01-01

    At the request of the faculty of the Colorado School of Mines, Golden, Colorado, the authors prepared and presented a lecture series to the students of a graduate level advanced instrumental analysis class. The slides and text presented in this report are a compilation and condensation of this series of lectures. The purpose of this report is to present the slides and notes and to emphasize the thought processes that should be used by a scientist submitting samples for analyses in order to procure analytical data to answer a research question. First and foremost, the analytical data generated can be no better than the samples submitted. The questions to be answered must first be well defined and the appropriate samples collected from the population that will answer the question. The proper methods of analysis, including proper sample preparation and digestion techniques, must then be applied. Care must be taken to achieve the required limits of detection of the critical analytes to yield detectable analyte concentration (above "action" levels) for the majority of the study's samples and to address what portion of those analytes answer the research question-total or partial concentrations. To guarantee a robust analytical result that answers the research question(s), a well-defined quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) plan must be employed. This QA/QC plan must include the collection and analysis of field and laboratory blanks, sample duplicates, and matrix-matched standard reference materials (SRMs). The proper SRMs may include in-house materials and/or a selection of widely available commercial materials. A discussion of the preparation and applicability of in-house reference materials is also presented. Only when all these analytical issues are sufficiently addressed can the research questions be answered with known certainty.

  19. Policy research and analysis organizations: an account of recent ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Drawing from interviews, archival documents and a range of other sources, this article takes stock of key public policy research and analysis organizations in Ethiopia. It sheds light on the significance of professionalization of policy analysis and its contributions to closing the gap between knowledge and policymaking, offers ...

  20. Impact Of Monetary Policy On Financial Asset Returns: An Analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper presents an analysis of the impact of monetary policy on financial asset returns, with particular reference to stocks. The minimum discount rate and an index based on the direction of change in discount rate were used as monetary policy proxies. The analysis was done using a multi-association model of which ...

  1. Diffraction as a Method of Critical Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulmer, Jasmine B.

    2016-01-01

    Recent developments in critical policy analysis have occurred alongside the new materialisms in qualitative research. These lines of scholarship have unfolded along two separate, but related, tracks. In particular, the new materialist method of "diffraction" aligns with many elements of critical policy analysis. Both involve critical…

  2. Statistical analysis of CSP plants by simulating extensive meteorological series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavón, Manuel; Fernández, Carlos M.; Silva, Manuel; Moreno, Sara; Guisado, María V.; Bernardos, Ana

    2017-06-01

    The feasibility analysis of any power plant project needs the estimation of the amount of energy it will be able to deliver to the grid during its lifetime. To achieve this, its feasibility study requires a precise knowledge of the solar resource over a long term period. In Concentrating Solar Power projects (CSP), financing institutions typically requires several statistical probability of exceedance scenarios of the expected electric energy output. Currently, the industry assumes a correlation between probabilities of exceedance of annual Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) and energy yield. In this work, this assumption is tested by the simulation of the energy yield of CSP plants using as input a 34-year series of measured meteorological parameters and solar irradiance. The results of this work show that, even if some correspondence between the probabilities of exceedance of annual DNI values and energy yields is found, the intra-annual distribution of DNI may significantly affect this correlation. This result highlights the need of standardized procedures for the elaboration of representative DNI time series representative of a given probability of exceedance of annual DNI.

  3. Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. VI. Bayesian Block Representations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scargle, Jeffrey D.; Norris, Jay P.; Jackson, Brad; Chiang, James

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it-an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks [Scargle 1998]-that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piece- wise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by [Arias-Castro, Donoho and Huo 2003]. In the spirit of Reproducible Research [Donoho et al. (2008)] all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as auxiliary material.

  4. Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. VI. Bayesian Block Representations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scargle, Jeffrey D.; Norris, Jay P.; Jackson, Brad; Chiang, James

    2013-02-01

    This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it—an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks—that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piecewise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by Arias-Castro et al. In the spirit of Reproducible Research all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as supplementary material.

  5. Homogeneity revisited: analysis of updated precipitation series in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bickici Arikan, Bugrayhan; Kahya, Ercan

    2018-01-01

    Homogeneous time series of meteorological variables are necessary for hydrologic and climate studies. Dependability of historical precipitation data is subjected to keen evaluation prior to every study in water resources, hydrology, and climate change fields. This study aims to characterize the homogeneity of long-term Turkish precipitation data in order to ensure that they can be reliably used. The homogeneity of monthly precipitation data set was tested using the standard normal homogeneity test, Buishand test, Von Neumann ratio test, and Pettitt test at the 5% significance level across Turkey. Our precipitation records including the most updated observations, extracted from 160 meteorological stations, for the periods 1974-2014 were analyzed by all the four homogeneity tests. According to the results of all tests, five out of 160 stations have an inhomogeneity. With regard to our strict confirmation rule, 44 out of 160 stations are said to be inhomogeneous since they failed from at least one of the four tests. The breaks captured by the Buishand and Pettitt tests usually tend to appear in the middle of the precipitation series, whereas the ability of standard normal homogeneity test is in favor of identifying inhomogeneities mostly at the beginning or at the end of the records. Our results showed that 42 out of 44 inhomogeneous stations passed all the four tests after applying a correction procedure based on the double mass curve analysis. Available metadata was used to interpret the detected inhomogeneity.

  6. A non linear analysis of human gait time series based on multifractal analysis and cross correlations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munoz-Diosdado, A

    2005-01-01

    We analyzed databases with gait time series of adults and persons with Parkinson, Huntington and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) diseases. We obtained the staircase graphs of accumulated events that can be bounded by a straight line whose slope can be used to distinguish between gait time series from healthy and ill persons. The global Hurst exponent of these series do not show tendencies, we intend that this is because some gait time series have monofractal behavior and others have multifractal behavior so they cannot be characterized with a single Hurst exponent. We calculated the multifractal spectra, obtained the spectra width and found that the spectra of the healthy young persons are almost monofractal. The spectra of ill persons are wider than the spectra of healthy persons. In opposition to the interbeat time series where the pathology implies loss of multifractality, in the gait time series the multifractal behavior emerges with the pathology. Data were collected from healthy and ill subjects as they walked in a roughly circular path and they have sensors in both feet, so we have one time series for the left foot and other for the right foot. First, we analyzed these time series separately, and then we compared both results, with direct comparison and with a cross correlation analysis. We tried to find differences in both time series that can be used as indicators of equilibrium problems

  7. Discontinuous conduction mode analysis of phase-modulated series ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    modulated dc–dc series resonant converter (SRC) operating in discontinuous conduction mode (DCM). The conventional fundamental harmonic approximation technique is extended for a non-ideal series resonant tank to clarify the limitations of ...

  8. Time series Analysis of Integrateds Building System Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgiev, Tz.; Jonkov, T.; Yonchev, E.

    2010-10-01

    This article deals with time series analysis of indoor and outdoor variables of the integrated building system. The kernel of these systems is heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) problems. Important outdoor and indoor variables are: air temperature, global and diffuse radiations, wind speed and direction, temperature, relative humidity, mean radiant temperature, and so on. The aim of this article is TO select the structure and investigation of a linear auto—regressive (AR) and auto—regressive with external inputs (ARX) models. The investigation of obtained models is based on real—live data. All researches are derived in MATLAB environment. The further research will focus on synthesis of robust energy saving control algorithms.

  9. Centrality measures in temporal networks with time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Qiangjuan; Zhao, Chengli; Zhang, Xue; Wang, Xiaojie; Yi, Dongyun

    2017-05-01

    The study of identifying important nodes in networks has a wide application in different fields. However, the current researches are mostly based on static or aggregated networks. Recently, the increasing attention to networks with time-varying structure promotes the study of node centrality in temporal networks. In this paper, we define a supra-evolution matrix to depict the temporal network structure. With using of the time series analysis, the relationships between different time layers can be learned automatically. Based on the special form of the supra-evolution matrix, the eigenvector centrality calculating problem is turned into the calculation of eigenvectors of several low-dimensional matrices through iteration, which effectively reduces the computational complexity. Experiments are carried out on two real-world temporal networks, Enron email communication network and DBLP co-authorship network, the results of which show that our method is more efficient at discovering the important nodes than the common aggregating method.

  10. Aspects with Program Analysis for Security Policies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Fan

    . This dissertation explores the principles of adding challenging security policies to existing systems with great flexibility and modularity. The policies concerned cover both classical access control and explicit information flow policies. We built our solution by combining aspect-oriented programming techniques......Enforcing security policies to IT systems, especially for a mobile distributed system, is challenging. As society becomes more IT-savvy, our expectations about security and privacy evolve. This is usually followed by changes in regulation in the form of standards and legislation. In many cases......, small modification of the security requirement might lead to substantial changes in a number of modules within a large mobile distributed system. Indeed, security is a crosscutting concern which can spread to many business modules within a system, and is difficult to be integrated in a modular way...

  11. Positioning women's and children's health in African union policy-making: a policy analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toure Kadidiatou

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background With limited time to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, progress towards improving women's and children's health needs to be accelerated. With Africa accounting for over half of the world's maternal and child deaths, the African Union (AU has a critical role in prioritizing related policies and catalysing required investments and action. In this paper, the authors assess the evolution of African Union policies related to women's and children's health, and analyze how these policies are prioritized and framed. Methods The main method used in this policy analysis was a document review of all African Union policies developed from 1963 to 2010, focusing specifically on policies that explicitly mention health. The findings from this document review were discussed with key actors to identify policy implications. Results With over 220 policies in total, peace and security is the most common AU policy topic. Social affairs and other development issues became more prominent in the 1990s. The number of policies that mentioned health rose steadily over the years (with 1 policy mentioning health in 1963 to 7 in 2010. This change was catalysed by factors such as: a favourable shift in AU priorities and systems towards development issues, spurred by the transition from the Organization of African Unity to the African Union; the mandate of the African Commission on Human and People's Rights; health-related advocacy initiatives, such as the Campaign for the Accelerated Reduction of Maternal Mortality in Africa (CARMMA; action and accountability requirements arising from international human rights treaties, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs, and new health-funding mechanisms, such as the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. Prioritization of women's and children's health issues in AU policies has been framed primarily by human rights, advocacy and accountability considerations, more by economic and health frames

  12. ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES FOR THE CURRENCY PAIR CROATIAN KUNA / EURO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Martinović

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The domestic currency Croatian kuna (HRK was introduced in May 1995. To date, the Croatian National Bank (HNB, as a regulator and formulator of monetary policy in Croatia has operated a policy of stable exchange rate, typically referenced to the formal currency of the European Union euro (EUR. From the date of introduction of the euro 01/01/1999 until 01/01/2016 the value of the currency pair HRK / EUR changed in value by only 4.25% (HNB. Although the value of the Croatian kuna is relatively stable, there are some fluctuations on an annual level (e.g. in ­­­the last few years because of the global crisis as well as  on periodic levels within a year. The aim of this paper is to show the movement of the value of the currency pair since the beginning of 2002 to the present day (the time curve, analyze the correctness, trends and periodicity (seasonal behavior, if any exist.The research will be done using the method of Time Series Analysis, assuming that the external (global economy and internal factors (economic policy remain similar or the same. According to the results, further assessment of price developments in the period followed will be made by using the obtained predicative models. In the event that the curve contains the component of periodicity, the observed patterns will be studied further.

  13. Strategic Sequencing for State Distributed PV Policies: A Quantitative Analysis of Policy Impacts and Interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doris, E.; Krasko, V.A.

    2012-10-01

    State and local policymakers show increasing interest in spurring the development of customer-sited distributed generation (DG), in particular solar photovoltaic (PV) markets. Prompted by that interest, this analysis examines the use of state policy as a tool to support the development of a robust private investment market. This analysis builds on previous studies that focus on government subsidies to reduce installation costs of individual projects and provides an evaluation of the impacts of policies on stimulating private market development.

  14. Time series power flow analysis for distribution connected PV generation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broderick, Robert Joseph; Quiroz, Jimmy Edward; Ellis, Abraham; Reno, Matthew J.; Smith, Jeff; Dugan, Roger

    2013-01-01

    Distributed photovoltaic (PV) projects must go through an interconnection study process before connecting to the distribution grid. These studies are intended to identify the likely impacts and mitigation alternatives. In the majority of the cases, system impacts can be ruled out or mitigation can be identified without an involved study, through a screening process or a simple supplemental review study. For some proposed projects, expensive and time-consuming interconnection studies are required. The challenges to performing the studies are twofold. First, every study scenario is potentially unique, as the studies are often highly specific to the amount of PV generation capacity that varies greatly from feeder to feeder and is often unevenly distributed along the same feeder. This can cause location-specific impacts and mitigations. The second challenge is the inherent variability in PV power output which can interact with feeder operation in complex ways, by affecting the operation of voltage regulation and protection devices. The typical simulation tools and methods in use today for distribution system planning are often not adequate to accurately assess these potential impacts. This report demonstrates how quasi-static time series (QSTS) simulation and high time-resolution data can be used to assess the potential impacts in a more comprehensive manner. The QSTS simulations are applied to a set of sample feeders with high PV deployment to illustrate the usefulness of the approach. The report describes methods that can help determine how PV affects distribution system operations. The simulation results are focused on enhancing the understanding of the underlying technical issues. The examples also highlight the steps needed to perform QSTS simulation and describe the data needed to drive the simulations. The goal of this report is to make the methodology of time series power flow analysis readily accessible to utilities and others responsible for evaluating

  15. Implementation lessons for school food policies and marketing restrictions in the Philippines: a qualitative policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeve, Erica; Thow, Anne Marie; Bell, Colin; Engelhardt, Katrin; Gamolo-Naliponguit, Ella Cecilia; Go, John Juliard; Sacks, Gary

    2018-01-23

    The school environment can enhance children's skills, knowledge and behaviours in relation to healthy eating. However, in many countries, unhealthy foods are commonly available in schools, and children can be exposed to aggressive marketing by the food industry. Taking the perspective of policymakers, this study aimed to identify barriers and enablers to effective school food policy development and implementation in the Philippines. In May 2016, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 21 policymakers and stakeholders involved in school food policymaking and implementation in the Philippines. The Health Policy Analysis Triangle was used to identify interview questions and to guide the thematic analysis. These included the political and socio-environmental context, strengths and limitations of existing policy content, roles and behaviours of actors, implementation processes, policy outcomes, and opportunities to improve policy coherence. The Department of Education's policy 'Orders' represented a relatively strong policy framework for the education sector of the Philippines. However, a lack of human and financial resources for implementation, planning, and policy enforcement limited the impact of the policy on the healthiness of school food provision. Ambiguity in policy wording allowed a wide interpretation of the foods eligible to be provided in schools, and led to difficulties in effective monitoring and enforcement. Food companies used existing relationships with schools to promote their brands and compromise the establishment of a stronger food policy agenda. We found a motivated group of actors engaging in policy-oriented learning and advocating for a stronger policy alternative so as to improve the school food environment. The adoption of policy mechanisms being used to promote healthy dietary practices in the school setting will be strengthened by more robust implementation planning processes, and resources to support implementation and enforcement

  16. Public opinion and environmental policy output: a cross-national analysis of energy policies in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Brilé; Böhmelt, Tobias; Ward, Hugh

    2017-11-01

    This article studies how public opinion is associated with the introduction of renewable energy policies in Europe. While research increasingly seeks to model the link between public opinion and environmental policies, the empirical evidence is largely based on a single case: the US. This limits the generalizability of findings and we argue accordingly for a systematic, quantitative study of how public opinion drives environmental policies in another context. Theoretically, we combine arguments behind the political survival of democratic leaders with electoral success and environmental politics. Ultimately, we suggest that office-seeking leaders introduce policies that seem favorable to the domestic audience; if the public prefers environmental protection, the government introduces such policies in turn. The main contribution of this research is the cross-country empirical analysis, where we combine data on the public’s environmental attitudes and renewable energy policy outputs in a European context between 1974 and 2015. We show that as public opinion shifts towards prioritizing the environment, there is a significant and positive effect on the rate of renewable energy policy outputs by governments in Europe. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic, quantitative study of public opinion and environmental policies across a large set of countries, and we demonstrate that the mechanisms behind the introduction of renewable energy policies follow major trends across European states.

  17. Mexico: Neighbor in Transition. Foreign Policy Association Headline Series, No. 267.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Peter H.

    One of a series of booklets on world issues, this five-part document presents information about Mexico. Part one examines Mexican history from Cortez to Madero. Emphasis is placed on the revolution era (1910-1920) and the creation of two political parties: the Partido de la Revolucion Mexicana (Mexican Revolutionary Party or PRM) and the Partido…

  18. Learning from the Past for Future Policy: Approaches to Time-series ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Reliable time-series catch and effort data are fundamental for fisheries assessment and management; however, such data are usually not readily available. The Food and Agricultrual Organization (FAO) compiles statistical reports from its member countries, but their reliability is questionable. Several approaches were ...

  19. The Atlantic Alliance at 35. Foreign Policy Association Headline Series, No. 268.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DePorte, A. W.

    One in a series of booklets whose purpose is to stimulate greater and more effective understanding of world affairs among Americans, this six-chapter report examines the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO) first 35 years and probes the extent to which the alliance can find common ground on the perennial issues of military doctrine,…

  20. Representations of women and drug use in policy: A critical policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Natalie; Bull, Melissa

    2018-03-13

    Contemporary research in the drugs field has demonstrated a number of gender differences in patterns and experiences of substance use, and the design and provision of gender-responsive interventions has been identified as an important policy issue. Consequently, whether and how domestic drug policies attend to women and gender issues is an important question for investigation. This article presents a policy audit and critical analysis of Australian national and state and territory policy documents. It identifies and discusses two key styles of problematisation of women's drug use in policy: 1) drug use and its effect on women's reproductive role (including a focus on pregnant women and women who are mothers), and 2) drug use and its relationship to women's vulnerability to harm (including violent and sexual victimisation, trauma, and mental health issues). Whilst these are important areas for policy to address, we argue that such representations of women who use drugs tend to reinforce particular understandings of women and drug use, while at the same time contributing to areas of 'policy silence' or neglect. In particular, the policy documents analysed are largely silent about the harm reduction needs of all women, as well as the needs of women who are not mothers, young women, older women, transwomen or other women deemed to be outside of dominant normative reproductive discourse. This analysis is important because understanding how women's drug use is problematised and identifying areas of policy silence provides a foundation for redressing gaps in policy, and for assessing the likely effectiveness of current and future policy approaches. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Guiding Urban Growth: Policy Issues and Demographic Constraints. Paper Series No. 5212.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Peter A.

    It is proposed in this document that the selectivity of migration, in terms of both people and places become a more imposing influence in urbanization as the role of natural increase as a source of urban growth diminishes. Recent U.S. growth policy proposals have frequently been marked by a simplistic view of how urban growth works, compounded by…

  2. Public Marketing: An Alternative Policy Decision-Making Idea for Small Cities. Community Development Research Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyers, James; And Others

    The concept of public marketing presents a strategy for the systems approach to community development that would facilitate the community decision making process via improved communication. Basic aspects of the social marketing process include: (1) product policy; (2) channels of distribution; (3) pricing (perceived price vs quality and quantity…

  3. Course Placement Series: Spotlight on High School Math Course Enrollment. Policy Brief

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tennessee Department of Education, 2015

    2015-01-01

    The Tennessee Department of Education explored course enrollment patterns in an effort to better understand in which courses students are enrolling and whether course enrollment policies and procedures are promoting students' interests. This report focuses on math course enrollment patterns throughout high school by following the 2013-14 twelfth…

  4. Early Retirement Incentive Programs for Teachers. Policy Issue Series No. 6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarter, Scott; McCarthy, Martha

    The first section of this policy paper provides an overview of the historical development of early retirement incentive programs (ERIPs), the legal status of ERIPs under the Age Discrimination in Employment Act (ADEA), cost/benefit analyses involving ERIPs, and consideration of ERIPs in Indiana. The second section contains a brief synopsis of…

  5. Policy Patrons: Philanthropy, Education Reform, and the Politics of Influence. Educational Innovations Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins-Stange, Megan E.

    2016-01-01

    "Policy Patrons" offers a rare behind-the-scenes view of decision making inside four influential education philanthropies: the Ford Foundation, the W. K. Kellogg Foundation, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the Eli and Edythe Broad Foundation. The outcome is an intriguing, thought-provoking look at the impact of current…

  6. Affirmative Action in Antidiscrimination Law and Policy: An Overview and Synthesis. SUNY Series in American Constitutionalism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leiter, Samuel; Leiter, William M.

    This book focuses on the legal and ideological controversy over the application of affirmative action policy to combat discrimination based on race, national origin/ethnicity, and gender. After the introduction, seven chapters discuss (2) "The Roots of Affirmative Action, the Women's Movement, and the Groups Covered by Affirmative…

  7. Nutritional Problems and Policy in Tanzania. Cornell International Nutrition Monograph Series, Number 7 (1980).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mgaza, Olyvia

    This monograph discusses policies designed to deal with food and nutrition problems in Tanzania. Available information on food supplies and nutritional conditions in Tanzania clearly shows that the country faces nutritional problems; protein energy malnutrition is the most serious and requires priority action. Iron deficiency anemia, goiter, and…

  8. U.S. Foreign Policy and the UN System. Special Bibliography Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1995-10-01

    John "Vienna and Beyond: U.S. Human Rights Diplomacy in the Post Cold War World," DISAM Journal 16.2 (Winter 1993-94): 79-84. Sikkink , Kathryn ...Downgraded." Foreign Policy Bulleti 4.4 & 5 (Jan.-Apr. 1994): 43-58. Sikkink , Kathryn "Human Rights, Principled Issue-Networks, and Sovereignty in Latin

  9. Measuring use of research evidence in public health policy: a policy content analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zardo, Pauline; Collie, Alex

    2014-05-23

    There are few Australian studies showing how research evidence is used to inform the development of public health policy. International research has shown that compensation for injury rehabilitation can have negative impacts on health outcomes. This study examined transport injury compensation policy in the Australian state of Victoria to: determine type and purpose of reference to information sources; and to identify the extent of reference to academic research evidence in transport related injury rehabilitation compensation policy. Quantitative content analysis of injury rehabilitation compensation policies (N = 128) from the Victorian state government transport accident compensation authority. The most commonly referenced types of information were Internal Policy (median = 6 references per policy), Clinical/Medical (2.5), and Internal Legislation (1). Academic Research Evidence was the least often referenced source of information. The main purpose of reference to information was to support injury treatment and rehabilitation compensation claims decision-making. Transport injury compensation policy development is complex; with multiple sources of information cited including legislation, internal policy, external policy and clinical/medical evidence. There is limited use of academic research evidence in Victorian state government injury treatment and rehabilitation compensation policies. Decisions regarding compensation for injury treatment and rehabilitation services could benefit from greater use of academic research evidence. This study is one of the first to examine the use of research evidence in existing Australian public health policy decision-making using rigorous quantitative methods. It provides a practical example of how use of research evidence in public health policy can be objectively measured.

  10. Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Jia Chaolong; Xu Weixiang; Wang Futian; Wang Hanning

    2012-01-01

    The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1) is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changin...

  11. Economic and policy analysis for solar PV systems in Indiana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Jinho; Tyner, Wallace E.

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, the energy market in the US and globally is expanding the production of renewable energy. Solar energy for electricity is also expanding in the US. Indiana is one of the states expanding solar energy with solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Therefore, we conduct benefit cost analysis with several uncertain input variables to determine the economics of adopting solar PV systems in Indiana based on policy instruments that could increase adoption of solar PV systems. The specific objectives are analyses of the cost distribution of solar PV systems compared with grid electricity in homes and estimating the probability that solar can be cheaper than electricity from grids under different policy combinations. We first do the analysis under current policy and then the analysis under potential policy options for a variety of scenarios. Also, the results inform government policy makers on how effective the alternative policies for encouraging solar PV systems are. The results show that current policies are important in reducing the cost of solar PV systems. However, with current policies, there is only 50–50 chance of solar being cheaper than electricity from grids. If potential policies are implemented, solar PV systems can be more economical than grid electricity. - Highlights: • We investigate the economics of solar PV systems based on policy instruments. • We do scenario analyses under different combinations of policies. • We examine the probability of solar being cheaper than grid electricity for each scenario. • With current policies, there is 50–50 chance of solar being cheaper than the grid. • With depreciation and carbon tax, solar is much more economical than the grid

  12. Turkey and Iran Transcaucasia Policy: Comparative Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    А V Suleimanov

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Turkey and Iran Transcaucasia modern foreign policy is analyzed. As is known, Turkey and Iran historically were the competing parties for spheres of influence in Transcaucasia, as well as Russia, the USA and the Great Britain. Regional relations between Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia are discussed in context of Nagorno-Karabakh and Georgia-South Ossetia conflicts and Caspian problem.

  13. Analysis of State Bullying Laws and Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuart-Cassel, Victoria; Bell, Ariana; Springer, J. Fred

    2011-01-01

    Bullying in schools has become widely viewed as an urgent social, health, and education concern that has moved to the forefront of public debate on school legislation and policy. The Columbine High School shooting in 1999 was the first of many high-profile incidents of violent behavior that appeared to implicate bullying as an underlying cause…

  14. SECURITY POLICIES APPROACHED BY VALUE ANALYSIS CONCEPTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florina Oana Varlanuta

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper intends to redefine the role of the end users of the Internet facilities, in the process of creation of more secure transactions on the Internet, in respect of their privacy. In this context, the purpose is to introduce the use of end user (customer value concept in the process of Security policy framework design.

  15. Avian Influenza Policy Analysis | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Governments in Southeast Asia have adopted a range of policies aimed at controlling the disease in animals, preventing its spread to humans and strengthening national preparedness for an avian influenza pandemic. The Asia Partnership for Avian Influenza Research (APAIR) brings together national research agencies ...

  16. Constructing Bullying in Ontario, Canada: A Critical Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winton, Sue; Tuters, Stephanie

    2015-01-01

    As the prevalence and negative effects of bullying become widely known, people around the world seem desperate to solve the bullying "problem". A sizeable body of research about many aspects of bullying and a plethora of anti-bullying programmes and policies now exist. This critical policy analysis asks: how does Ontario, Canada's…

  17. Health policy, health systems research and analysis capacity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Health Policy and Systems Research and Analysis (HPSR&A) is an applied science that deals with complexity as it tries to provide lessons, tools and methods to understand and improve health systems and health policy. It is defined by the kinds of questions asked rather than a particular methodology.

  18. Policy analysis of the English graduation benchmark in Taiwan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    To nudge students to study English and to improve their English proficiency, many universities in Taiwan have imposed an English graduation benchmark on their students. This article reviews this policy, using the theoretic framework for education policy analysis proposed by Haddad and Demsky (1995). The author ...

  19. Statistical Compilation of the ICT Sector and Policy Analysis | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Final technical report / statistical compilation of the ICT sector and policy analysis : a communication for development approach to scientific training and research and its extension digital transformations; seeking applied frameworks and indicators. Download PDF. Studies. Statistical Compilation of the ICT Sector and Policy ...

  20. Tourism policy analysis: the case of post-independence Namibia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Nyakunu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Tourism policy is an important domain for tourism researchers. Despite its significance, the analysis and unpacking of the making of tourism policy has so far attracted only limited attention in the global South. This paper reports on the case study of tourism policy in post-independence Namibia. It is disclosed that policy development is led by professional knowledge in support of the leading interest groups in the country's tourism economy, namely large local and private sector enterprises. By contrast, the role of small firms (SMEs, which constitute the largest segment of tourism firms in Namibia, is marginal.

  1. Interglacial climate dynamics and advanced time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudelsee, Manfred; Bermejo, Miguel; Köhler, Peter; Lohmann, Gerrit

    2013-04-01

    Studying the climate dynamics of past interglacials (IGs) helps to better assess the anthropogenically influenced dynamics of the current IG, the Holocene. We select the IG portions from the EPICA Dome C ice core archive, which covers the past 800 ka, to apply methods of statistical time series analysis (Mudelsee 2010). The analysed variables are deuterium/H (indicating temperature) (Jouzel et al. 2007), greenhouse gases (Siegenthaler et al. 2005, Loulergue et al. 2008, L¨ü thi et al. 2008) and a model-co-derived climate radiative forcing (Köhler et al. 2010). We select additionally high-resolution sea-surface-temperature records from the marine sedimentary archive. The first statistical method, persistence time estimation (Mudelsee 2002) lets us infer the 'climate memory' property of IGs. Second, linear regression informs about long-term climate trends during IGs. Third, ramp function regression (Mudelsee 2000) is adapted to look on abrupt climate changes during IGs. We compare the Holocene with previous IGs in terms of these mathematical approaches, interprete results in a climate context, assess uncertainties and the requirements to data from old IGs for yielding results of 'acceptable' accuracy. This work receives financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (Project ClimSens within the DFG Research Priority Program INTERDYNAMIK) and the European Commission (Marie Curie Initial Training Network LINC, No. 289447, within the 7th Framework Programme). References Jouzel J, Masson-Delmotte V, Cattani O, Dreyfus G, Falourd S, Hoffmann G, Minster B, Nouet J, Barnola JM, Chappellaz J, Fischer H, Gallet JC, Johnsen S, Leuenberger M, Loulergue L, Luethi D, Oerter H, Parrenin F, Raisbeck G, Raynaud D, Schilt A, Schwander J, Selmo E, Souchez R, Spahni R, Stauffer B, Steffensen JP, Stenni B, Stocker TF, Tison JL, Werner M, Wolff EW (2007) Orbital and millennial Antarctic climate variability over the past 800,000 years. Science 317:793. Köhler P, Bintanja R

  2. Discontinuous conduction mode analysis of phase-modulated series ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Utsab Kundu

    Abstract. This paper proposes an analytical approach to derive voltage gain for phase-modulated dc–dc series resonant converter (SRC) operating in discontinuous conduction mode (DCM). The conventional fundamental harmonic approximation technique is extended for a non-ideal series resonant tank to clarify the ...

  3. River catchment rainfall series analysis using additive Holt–Winters ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Conventional ways that determine rainfalltrends can only provide a general result in single direction for the whole study period. In this study, rainfall series were modelled using additive Holt–Winters method to examine the rainfall pattern in Langat River Basin, Malaysia. Nine homogeneous series of more than 25 years data ...

  4. Noise policy: sound policy? A meta level analysis and evaluation of noise policy in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weber, M.

    2013-01-01

    Due to its negative health effects, noise policy has been developed in the Netherlands during the last four decades, aimed at preventing and reducing noise by road and railway traffic, industry and aviation. Academic literature illustrated that significant changes have occurred in many sectoral

  5. Time-series-analysis techniques applied to nuclear-material accounting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pike, D.H.; Morrison, G.W.; Downing, D.J.

    1982-05-01

    This document is designed to introduce the reader to the applications of Time Series Analysis techniques to Nuclear Material Accountability data. Time series analysis techniques are designed to extract information from a collection of random variables ordered by time by seeking to identify any trends, patterns, or other structure in the series. Since nuclear material accountability data is a time series, one can extract more information using time series analysis techniques than by using other statistical techniques. Specifically, the objective of this document is to examine the applicability of time series analysis techniques to enhance loss detection of special nuclear materials. An introductory section examines the current industry approach which utilizes inventory differences. The error structure of inventory differences is presented. Time series analysis techniques discussed include the Shewhart Control Chart, the Cumulative Summation of Inventory Differences Statistics (CUSUM) and the Kalman Filter and Linear Smoother

  6. North Korea: Economic Leverage and Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-22

    delegation to honor former South Korean President Kim Dae- jung ; a resumption of activity at the Kaesong Industrial Complex; bilateral talks between U.S...task is more urgent or more important than solving the people’s food problem and eating problem.”21 Pyongyang currently faces the archetypical ...1, 2007. Jung Sung-ki. Kim Jong-il Interested in Vietnamese-style Reform Policy, Korea Times. October 28, 2007. 65 Hong, Ihk-pyo. A Shift Toward

  7. Analytical framework for recurrence network analysis of time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donges, Jonathan F; Heitzig, Jobst; Donner, Reik V; Kurths, Jürgen

    2012-04-01

    Recurrence networks are a powerful nonlinear tool for time series analysis of complex dynamical systems. While there are already many successful applications ranging from medicine to paleoclimatology, a solid theoretical foundation of the method has still been missing so far. Here, we interpret an ɛ-recurrence network as a discrete subnetwork of a "continuous" graph with uncountably many vertices and edges corresponding to the system's attractor. This step allows us to show that various statistical measures commonly used in complex network analysis can be seen as discrete estimators of newly defined continuous measures of certain complex geometric properties of the attractor on the scale given by ɛ. In particular, we introduce local measures such as the ɛ-clustering coefficient, mesoscopic measures such as ɛ-motif density, path-based measures such as ɛ-betweennesses, and global measures such as ɛ-efficiency. This new analytical basis for the so far heuristically motivated network measures also provides an objective criterion for the choice of ɛ via a percolation threshold, and it shows that estimation can be improved by so-called node splitting invariant versions of the measures. We finally illustrate the framework for a number of archetypical chaotic attractors such as those of the Bernoulli and logistic maps, periodic and two-dimensional quasiperiodic motions, and for hyperballs and hypercubes by deriving analytical expressions for the novel measures and comparing them with data from numerical experiments. More generally, the theoretical framework put forward in this work describes random geometric graphs and other networks with spatial constraints, which appear frequently in disciplines ranging from biology to climate science.

  8. Social media for public health: an exploratory policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fast, Ingrid; Sørensen, Kristine; Brand, Helmut; Suggs, L Suzanne

    2015-02-01

    To accomplish the aims of public health practice and policy today, new forms of communication and education are being applied. Social media are increasingly relevant for public health and used by various actors. Apart from benefits, there can also be risks in using social media, but policies regulating engagement in social media is not well researched. This study examined European public health-related organizations' social media policies and describes the main components of existing policies. This research used a mixed methods approach. A content analysis of social media policies from European institutions, non-government organizations (NGOs) and social media platforms was conducted. Next, individuals responsible for social media in their organization or projects completed a survey about their social media policy. Seventy-five per cent of institutions, NGOs and platforms had a social media policy available. The primary aspects covered within existing policies included data and privacy protection, intellectual property and copyright protection and regulations for the engagement in social media. Policies were intended to regulate staff use, to secure the liability of the institution and social responsibility. Respondents also stressed the importance of self-responsibility when using social media. This study of social media policies for public health in Europe provides a first snapshot of the existence and characteristics of social media policies among European health organizations. Policies tended to focus on legal aspects, rather than the health of the social media user. The effect of such policies on social media adoption and usage behaviour remains to be examined. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

  9. A Policy Analysis of Strategies to Manage Medical Holdovers

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jones, Tammie M

    2005-01-01

    This study is a policy analysis of the Community Based Health Care Initiative (CBHCI) implemented to address the problems for Soldiers mobilized and deployed in support of Operations Noble Eagle, Enduring Freedom, and Iraqi Freedom...

  10. A comparative analysis of capacity adequacy policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doorman, Gerard; Botterud, Audun; Wolfgang, Ove

    2007-06-01

    In this paper a stochastic dynamic optimization model is used to analyze the effect of different generation adequacy policies in restructured power systems. The expansion decisions of profit-maximizing investors are simulated under a number of different market designs: Energy Only with and without a price cap, Capacity Payment, Capacity Obligation, Capacity Subscription, and Demand Elasticity. The results show that the overall social welfare is reduced compared to a centralized social welfare optimization for all policies except Capacity Subscription and Demand Elasticity. In particular, an energy only market with a low price cap leads to a significant increase in involuntary load shedding. Capacity payments and obligations give additional investment incentives and more generating capacity, but also result in a considerable transfer of wealth from consumers to producers due to the capacity payments. Increased demand elasticity increases social welfare, but also results in a transfer from producers to consumers, compared to the theoretical social welfare optimum. In contrast, the capacity subscription policy increases the social welfare, and both producers and consumers benefit. This is possible because capacity subscription explicitly utilizes differences in consumers' preferences for uninterrupted supply. This advantage must be weighed against the cost of implementation, which is not included in the model.

  11. On-line analysis of reactor noise using time-series analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGevna, V.G.

    1981-10-01

    A method to allow use of time series analysis for on-line noise analysis has been developed. On-line analysis of noise in nuclear power reactors has been limited primarily to spectral analysis and related frequency domain techniques. Time series analysis has many distinct advantages over spectral analysis in the automated processing of reactor noise. However, fitting an autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) model to time series data involves non-linear least squares estimation. Unless a high speed, general purpose computer is available, the calculations become too time consuming for on-line applications. To eliminate this problem, a special purpose algorithm was developed for fitting ARMA models. While it is based on a combination of steepest descent and Taylor series linearization, properties of the ARMA model are used so that the auto- and cross-correlation functions can be used to eliminate the need for estimating derivatives. The number of calculations, per iteration varies lineegardless of the mee 0.2% yield strength displayed anisotropy, with axial and circumferential values being greater than radial. For CF8-CPF8 and CF8M-CPF8M castings to meet current ASME Code S acid fuel cells

  12. A fully feminist foreign policy? : A postcolonial feminist analysis of Sweden's Feminist Foreign Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Nylund, Mia-Lie

    2017-01-01

    This thesis is a postcolonial feminist discourse analysis of Sweden’s Feminist Foreign Policy. Sweden’s Feminist Foreign Policy is unique to the world, but it is not the only case of incorporating a gender perspective as a central part of national or international politics. Feminism and gender perspectives are increasingly receiving attention and space in global politics. The Swedish case could therefore inform us about where politics are heading. Previous research on the Feminist Foreign Pol...

  13. Dollarization and economic development in Zimbabwe: An interrupted time-series analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raphael Tabani Mpofu

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the impact of dollarization on the performance of the Zimbabwean economy from 2003 to 2014 using an interrupted time-series analysis. In Zimbabwe’s case, dollarization was the official replacement of the Zimbabwean dollar with the U.S. dollar. Rapid dollarization in the economy was accelerated by the exogenous shock caused by the injection of cash dollars into the Zimbabwean economy, mostly from international transfers. Since the official adoption of dollarization, Zimbabwe is largely a cash-based economy, with a huge amount of U.S. dollars that are in circulation outside the banking system. A hands-off approach to currency management has served Zimbabwe well since 2009, but a number of risks are beginning to emerge as the economy has slowly regenerated itself and the need for large capital injections has increased. Macroeconomic data obtained from the World Bank and from the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe’s Monthly Economic Review is analysed. According to the tests conducted, it was found that dollarization did introduce some macroeconomic stability in Zimbabwe although a few key macroeconomic variables showed a sustained improvement. Statistical analysis shows that increased dollarization had positively affected reversed the spiralling effects of hyperinflation that were prevalent prior to 2009, although inflationary pressures still continued, albeit at a slower pace. This research has implications not just for Zimbabwean policy makers as they grapple with decisions pertaining to re-adoption of a local currency and/or the continuation of the use of the US dollar and/or the adoption of a regional currency, for example, the South African rand. The African Union and specifically, the Southern Africa Development Community should look at these policy issues very closely in order to provide policy direction to its member states.

  14. Evaluating the impact of flexible alcohol trading hours on violence: an interrupted time series analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David K Humphreys

    Full Text Available On November 24(th 2005, the Government of England and Wales removed regulatory restrictions on the times at which licensed premises could sell alcohol. This study tests availability theory by treating the implementation of Licensing Act (2003 as a natural experiment in alcohol policy.An interrupted time series design was employed to estimate the Act's immediate and delayed impact on violence in the City of Manchester (Population 464,200. We collected police recorded rates of violence, robbery, and total crime between the 1st of February 2004 and the 31st of December 2007. Events were aggregated by week, yielding a total of 204 observations (95 pre-, and 109 post-intervention. Secondary analysis examined changes in daily patterns of violence. Pre- and post-intervention events were separated into four three-hour segments 18∶00-20∶59, 21∶00-23.59, 00∶00-02∶59, 03∶00-05∶59.Analysis found no evidence that the Licensing Act (2003 affected the overall volume of violence. However, analyses of night-time violence found a gradual and permanent shift of weekend violence into later parts of the night. The results estimated an initial increase of 27.5% between 03∶00 to 06∶00 (ω = 0.2433, 95% CI = 0.06, 0.42, which increased to 36% by the end of the study period (δ = -0.897, 95% CI = -1.02, -0.77.This study found no evidence that a national policy increasing the physical availability of alcohol affected the overall volume of violence. There was, however, evidence suggesting that the policy may be associated with changes to patterns of violence in the early morning (3 a.m. to 6 a.m..

  15. Partner Country Series: Understanding Energy Challenges in India - Policies, Players and Issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    A combination of rapidly increasing energy demand and fuel imports plus growing concern about economic and environmental consequences is generating growing calls for effective and thorough energy governance in India. Numerous policy reforms over the past 20 years have shifted the country’s energy sector from a state-dominated system towards one that is based on market principles. However, with the reform process left unfinished, India now finds itself trapped halfway along the transition to an open and well-performing energy sector. India suffered from the largest power outage ever in late July 2012, affecting nearly half of the population. While this incident highlights the importance of modern and smart energy systems, it indicates that the country is increasingly unable to deliver a secure supply of energy to its population, a quarter of which still lacks access to electricity. Understanding Energy Challenges in India aims to provide an informative and holistic understanding of India’s energy sector to stakeholders in India as well as the broad public. The publication explores in detail the policies, players and issues of the country’s power, coal, oil and gas, renewables and nuclear sectors. It also highlights the key challenges India faces, challenges that must be resolved for the evolution of the fast-growing country’s energy sector towards a sustainable energy future and eventually critical for the prospects of the Indian and global economies.

  16. Analysis of your professional liability insurance policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    SADUSK, J F; HASSARD, H; WATERSON, R

    1958-01-01

    The most important lessons for the physician to learn in regard to his professional liability insurance coverage are the following:1. The physician should carefully read his professional liability policy and should secure the educated aid of his attorney and his insurance broker, if they are conversant with this field.2. He should particularly read the definition of coverage and carefully survey the exclusion clauses which may deny him coverage under certain circumstances.3. If the physician is in partnership or in a group, he should be certain that he has contingent partnership coverage.4. The physician should accept coverage only from an insurance carrier of sufficient size and stability that he can be sure his coverage will be guaranteed for "latent liability" claims as the years go along-certainly for his lifetime.5. The insurance carrier offering the professional liability policy should be prepared to offer coverages up to at least $100,000/$300,000.6. The physician should be assured that the insurance carrier has claims-handling personnel and legal counsel who are experienced and expert in the professional liability field and who are locally available for service.7. The physician is best protected by a local or state group program, next best by a national group program, and last, by individual coverage.8. The physician should look with suspicion on a cancellation clause in which his policy may be summarily cancelled on brief notice.9. The physician should not buy professional liability insurance on the basis of price alone; adequacy of coverage and service and a good insurance company for his protection should be the deciding factors.

  17. Unsupervised land cover change detection: meaningful sequential time series analysis

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Salmon, BP

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available An automated land cover change detection method is proposed that uses coarse spatial resolution hyper-temporal earth observation satellite time series data. The study compared three different unsupervised clustering approaches that operate on short...

  18. Social determinants of health and health equity policy research: exploring the use, misuse, and nonuse of policy analysis theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Embrett, Mark G; Randall, G E

    2014-05-01

    Despite a dramatic growth in SDH/HE (social determinants of health/health equity) public policy research and demonstrated government interest in promoting equity in health policies, health inequities are actually growing among some populations and there is little evidence that "healthy public policies" are being adopted and implemented. Moreover, these issues are typically failing to even reach governments' policy agendas, which is a critical step towards serious debate and the identification of policy options. This systematic review pursues three main objectives. First, is to identify barriers to SDH/HE issues reaching the government policy agenda. Second, to evaluate the characteristics of peer-reviewed research articles that utilize common policy analysis theories. And third, to determine the extent to which the SDH/HE literature utilizes common policy analysis theories. Our systematic review, conducted in June 2012, identified 6200 SDH/HE related articles in the peer-reviewed literature; however, only seven articles explicitly used a commonly recognized policy analysis theory to inform their analysis. Our analysis revealed that the SDH/HE policy literature appears to be focused on advocacy rather than analysis and that the use of policy analysis theory is extremely limited. Our results also suggest that when such theories are incorporated into an analysis they are often not comprehensively employed. We propose explanations for this non-use and misuse of policy analysis theory, and conclude that researchers may have greater influence in helping to get SDH/HE issues onto government policy agendas if they gain a greater understanding of the policy process and the value of incorporating policy analysis theories into their research. Using a policy analysis lens to help identify why healthy public policies are typically not being adopted is an important step towards moving beyond advocacy to understanding and addressing some of the political barriers to reforms

  19. Geomechanical time series and its singularity spectrum analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lyubushin, Alexei A.; Kaláb, Zdeněk; Lednická, Markéta

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 47, č. 1 (2012), s. 69-77 ISSN 1217-8977 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA105/09/0089 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30860518 Keywords : geomechanical time series * singularity spectrum * time series segmentation * laser distance meter Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 0.347, year: 2012 http://www.akademiai.com/content/88v4027758382225/fulltext.pdf

  20. Data imputation analysis for Cosmic Rays time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, R. C.; Lucio, P. S.; Fernandez, J. H.

    2017-05-01

    The occurrence of missing data concerning Galactic Cosmic Rays time series (GCR) is inevitable since loss of data is due to mechanical and human failure or technical problems and different periods of operation of GCR stations. The aim of this study was to perform multiple dataset imputation in order to depict the observational dataset. The study has used the monthly time series of GCR Climax (CLMX) and Roma (ROME) from 1960 to 2004 to simulate scenarios of 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% and 90% of missing data compared to observed ROME series, with 50 replicates. Then, the CLMX station as a proxy for allocation of these scenarios was used. Three different methods for monthly dataset imputation were selected: AMÉLIA II - runs the bootstrap Expectation Maximization algorithm, MICE - runs an algorithm via Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations and MTSDI - an Expectation Maximization algorithm-based method for imputation of missing values in multivariate normal time series. The synthetic time series compared with the observed ROME series has also been evaluated using several skill measures as such as RMSE, NRMSE, Agreement Index, R, R2, F-test and t-test. The results showed that for CLMX and ROME, the R2 and R statistics were equal to 0.98 and 0.96, respectively. It was observed that increases in the number of gaps generate loss of quality of the time series. Data imputation was more efficient with MTSDI method, with negligible errors and best skill coefficients. The results suggest a limit of about 60% of missing data for imputation, for monthly averages, no more than this. It is noteworthy that CLMX, ROME and KIEL stations present no missing data in the target period. This methodology allowed reconstructing 43 time series.

  1. Extracting Chaos Control Parameters from Time Series Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, R B B [Centro Universitario da FEI, Avenida Humberto de Alencar Castelo Branco 3972, 09850-901, Sao Bernardo do Campo, SP (Brazil); Graves, J C, E-mail: rsantos@fei.edu.br [Instituto Tecnologico de Aeronautica, Praca Marechal Eduardo Gomes 50, 12228-900, Sao Jose dos Campos, SP (Brazil)

    2011-03-01

    We present a simple method to analyze time series, and estimate the parameters needed to control chaos in dynamical systems. Application of the method to a system described by the logistic map is also shown. Analyzing only two 100-point time series, we achieved results within 2% of the analytical ones. With these estimates, we show that OGY control method successfully stabilized a period-1 unstable periodic orbit embedded in the chaotic attractor.

  2. An innovation approach to non-Gaussian time series analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Ozaki, Tohru; Iino, Mitsunori

    2001-01-01

    The paper shows that the use of both types of random noise, white noise and Poisson noise, can be justified when using an innovations approach. The historical background for this is sketched, and then several methods of whitening dependent time series are outlined, including a mixture of Gaussian white noise and a compound Poisson process: this appears as a natural extension of the Gaussian white noise model for the prediction errors of a non-Gaussian time series. A stati...

  3. Making residential cannabis growing operations actionable: a critical policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Connie

    2009-07-01

    In 2006, the British Columbia (BC) government passed amendments to its Safety Standards Act. These amendments permit the routine disclosure of electrical usage information from electrical producers to BC's municipalities, ostensibly to identify and eradicate residential cannabis growing operations (grow ops). These amendments originated in a pilot project in Surrey, BC, known as the electrical and fire safety inspection initiative (EFSI), which drew together police, firefighters and others, to identify grow ops through the process of municipal electrical inspections. This paper draws on narrative analysis to critically explore how the report of the EFSI Surrey pilot project uses a series of linked claims to generate interpretative change in the definition of the problem of grow ops. This analysis also shows how claims about grow ops are constructed and gain their potency through links with other social problems, persons, and practices. Though the report of the EFSI project is a prohibitionist text replete with stock characters and themes from the history of Canadian drug policy, the problem of residential cannabis cultivation is made actionable by establishing grow operators as "superdeviants" constructed both as dangerous outsiders and as risks to a host of public safety concerns. These claims are then linked to the notion of an overwhelmed criminal justice system that establishes a "crisis" that justifies extraordinary methods of social control outside the due process of the criminal justice system. Construction of all cannabis cultivators as "dangerous" disavows other possibilities and shores up neo-liberal practices of government that draw on multi-partner initiatives to implement extraordinary methods of social control not necessarily subject to public accountability.

  4. Imatinib in advanced chordoma: A retrospective case series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindi, Nadia; Casali, Paolo G; Morosi, Carlo; Messina, Antonella; Palassini, Elena; Pilotti, Silvana; Tamborini, Elena; Radaelli, Stefano; Gronchi, Alessandro; Stacchiotti, Silvia

    2015-11-01

    Imatinib showed activity in 50 chordoma patients treated within a Phase II study. In that study, 70% of patients remained with stable disease (SD), median progression free survival (PFS) was 9 months and median overall survival (OS) was 34 months. We now report on a retrospective series of PDGFB/PDGFRB positive advanced chordoma patients treated with imatinib as a single agent within a compassionate-use programme at Istituto Nazionale Tumori, Milan, Italy (INT) between August 2002 and November 2010, when the programme was closed. 48 patients were consecutively treated with imatinib 800 mg/d. All patients had inoperable and progressive disease before starting imatinib. Demographics, treatment duration, toxicity and response rate by Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) were retrospectively recorded. The median duration of therapy was 7 months (1-46.5). No patient is on therapy at present. 46 patients were evaluable for response. No partial responses were detected. Best response was: stable disease 34 (74%), progressive disease 12 (26%). At a median follow-up of 24.5 months (0.5-117), median PFS was 9.9 months (95% confidence interval (CI) 6.7-13). Eight patients (16.5%) remained on therapy >18 months and 10 patients (21%) remained progression-free >18 months. Median OS was 30 months (95% CI 20-40), with 24 (50%) patients dead at the time of the present analysis. We confirm the activity of imatinib in locally advanced and metastatic chordoma, in terms of >70% tumour growth arrest in previously progressive patients. Median duration of response lasted almost 10 months, with >20% of patients progression-free at 18+ months. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Southeast Regional Clean Energy Policy Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McLaren, Joyce [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2011-04-01

    More than half of the electricity produced in the southeastern states is fuelled by coal. Although the region produces some coal, most of the states depend heavily on coal imports. Many of the region's aging coal power facilities are planned for retirement within the next 20 years. However, estimates indicate that a 20% increase in capacity is needed over that time to meet the rapidly growing demand. The most common incentives for energy efficiency in the Southeast are loans and rebates; however, total public spending on energy efficiency is limited. The most common state-level policies to support renewable energy development are personal and corporate tax incentives and loans. The region produced 1.8% of the electricity from renewable resources other than conventional hydroelectricity in 2009, half of the national average. There is significant potential for development of a biomass market in the region, as well as use of local wind, solar, methane-to-energy, small hydro, and combined heat and power resources. Options are offered for expanding and strengthening state-level policies such as decoupling, integrated resource planning, building codes, net metering, and interconnection standards to support further clean energy development. Benefits would include energy security, job creation, insurance against price fluctuations, increased value of marginal lands, and local and global environmental paybacks.

  6. Southeast Regional Clean Energy Policy Analysis (Revised)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McLaren, J.

    2011-04-01

    More than half of the electricity produced in the southeastern states is fuelled by coal. Although the region produces some coal, most of the states depend heavily on coal imports. Many of the region's aging coal power facilities are planned for retirement within the next 20 years. However, estimates indicate that a 20% increase in capacity is needed over that time to meet the rapidly growing demand. The most common incentives for energy efficiency in the Southeast are loans and rebates; however, total public spending on energy efficiency is limited. The most common state-level policies to support renewable energy development are personal and corporate tax incentives and loans. The region produced 1.8% of the electricity from renewable resources other than conventional hydroelectricity in 2009, half of the national average. There is significant potential for development of a biomass market in the region, as well as use of local wind, solar, methane-to-energy, small hydro, and combined heat and power resources. Options are offered for expanding and strengthening state-level policies such as decoupling, integrated resource planning, building codes, net metering, and interconnection standards to support further clean energy development. Benefits would include energy security, job creation, insurance against price fluctuations, increased value of marginal lands, and local and global environmental paybacks.

  7. Policy-Making Theory as an Analytical Framework in Policy Analysis: Implications for Research Design and Professional Advocacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldon, Michael R

    2016-01-01

    Policy studies are a recent addition to the American Physical Therapy Association's Research Agenda and are critical to our understanding of various federal, state, local, and organizational policies on the provision of physical therapist services across the continuum of care. Policy analyses that help to advance the profession's various policy agendas will require relevant theoretical frameworks to be credible. The purpose of this perspective article is to: (1) demonstrate the use of a policy-making theory as an analytical framework in a policy analysis and (2) discuss how sound policy analysis can assist physical therapists in becoming more effective change agents, policy advocates, and partners with other relevant stakeholder groups. An exploratory study of state agency policy responses to address work-related musculoskeletal disorders is provided as a contemporary example to illustrate key points and to demonstrate the importance of selecting a relevant analytical framework based on the context of the policy issue under investigation. © 2016 American Physical Therapy Association.

  8. Creating 'healthy built environment' legislation in Australia; a policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Patrick; Kent, Jennifer; Sainsbury, Peter; Marie-Thow, Anne; Baum, Fran; Friel, Sharon; McCue, Peter

    2017-09-05

    Influencing healthy public policy through health advocacy remains challenging. This policy analysis research uses theories of agenda setting to understand how health came to be considered for specific mention in legislation arising from land-use planning system reform in New South Wales, Australia. This qualitative study follows critical realist methodology to conduct a policy analysis of the case. We collected data from purposively sampled in-depth interviews (n = 9), a focus group and documentary analysis. We used three classic policy process (agenda setting) theories to develop an analytic framework for explaining the empirical data: Multiple Streams; Punctuated Equilibrium Theory and Advocacy Coalition Framework. The reform process presented a window of opportunity that opened incrementally over a 2 year period. The opportunity was grasped by individual policy entrepreneurs who subsequently formed a coalition of healthy planning advocates focused on strategically positioning 'health' as legislative objective for the new system. The actual point of influence seemed to appear suddenly when challenges to a perceived economic development agenda within the reforms peaked, and the health objective, see as non-threatening by all stakeholders, was taken up. Our analysis demonstrates how this particular point of influence followed sustained long-term activity by health advocates prior to and during the reform process. We demonstrate a theory-driven policy analysis of health advocacy efforts to influence an instance of major land-use planning reform. The application of multiple policy process theories enables deep understanding of what is required to effectively advocate for healthy public policy. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Appropriate Algorithms for Nonlinear Time Series Analysis in Psychology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheier, Christian; Tschacher, Wolfgang

    Chaos theory has a strong appeal for psychology because it allows for the investigation of the dynamics and nonlinearity of psychological systems. Consequently, chaos-theoretic concepts and methods have recently gained increasing attention among psychologists and positive claims for chaos have been published in nearly every field of psychology. Less attention, however, has been paid to the appropriateness of chaos-theoretic algorithms for psychological time series. An appropriate algorithm can deal with short, noisy data sets and yields `objective' results. In the present paper it is argued that most of the classical nonlinear techniques don't satisfy these constraints and thus are not appropriate for psychological data. A methodological approach is introduced that is based on nonlinear forecasting and the method of surrogate data. In artificial data sets and empirical time series we can show that this methodology reliably assesses nonlinearity and chaos in time series even if they are short and contaminated by noise.

  10. Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Chaolong

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1 is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

  11. Stakeholders Analysis of Policy-Making Process: The Case of Timber Legality Policy on Private Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mulyaningrum Mulyaningrum

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study is to identify and measure the relationships among stakeholders that influence the process of policy-making in defining legality of timber from private forests. The study focuses on the policy-making process of the Ministry of Forestry Regulation P.38/Menhut-II/2009 on Standard and Guidelines for Assessment of Sustainable Forest Management Performance and Timber Legality Verification of Concessionaire or of the Private Forest License Holder as the subject that has been implemented in several private forest management units as follow: Giri Mukti Wana Tirta in Lampung, Koperasi Serba Usaha APIK in Bali, Koperasi Hutan Jaya Lestari in South East Sulawesi, and Koperasi Wana Lestari Menoreh Kulonprogo in Yogyakarta. This research used a qualitative approach and the analysis method used in this research is a modified-stakeholder analysis that developed by ODA (1995, Reitbergen et al. (1998, and Mayer (2005. The stakeholder analysis shows that the interests and influences do not consider private forest farmers as primary stakeholder during  the process of policy formulation.  The strong national and international interests, supported by high authority could not be influnced by the role of the NGOs and academicians. The imbalance of responsibilities, rights, and revenues that was experienced by  farmers as the manager of private forest when started implementing the policy was more as burdens, it means implementation of the policy was more as burdens. Strong relationships between the Ministry of Forestry with the state as a core could not empower the relationship with private forest farmers. As result, policy assumptions cannot be implemented properly.Keywords: policy making process, timber legality, private forest, stakeholder.DOI: 10.7226/jtfm.19.2.156

  12. Analysis of historical series of industrial demand of energy; Analisi delle serie storiche dei consumi energetici dell`industria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moauro, F. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy). Dip. Energia

    1995-03-01

    This paper reports a short term analysis of the Italian demand for energy fonts and a check of a statistic model supposing the industrial demand for energy fonts as a function of prices and production, according to neoclassic neoclassic micro economic theory. To this pourpose monthly time series of industrial consumption of main energy fonts in 6 sectors, industrial production indexes in the same sectors and indexes of energy prices (coal, natural gas, oil products, electricity) have been used. The statistic methodology refers to modern analysis of time series and specifically to transfer function models. These ones permit rigorous identification and representation of the most important dynamic relations between dependent variables (production and prices), as relation of an input-output system. The results have shown an important positive correlation between energy consumption with prices. Furthermore, it has been shown the reliability of forecasts and their use as monthly energy indicators.

  13. Complex network approach for recurrence analysis of time series

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marwan, Norbert, E-mail: marwan@pik-potsdam.d [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam (Germany); Donges, Jonathan F. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam (Germany)] [Department of Physics, Humboldt University Berlin, Newtonstr. 15, 12489 Berlin (Germany); Zou Yong [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam (Germany); Donner, Reik V. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam (Germany)] [Institute for Transport and Economics, Dresden University of Technology, Andreas-Schubert-Str. 23, 01062 Dresden (Germany)] [Graduate School of Science, Osaka Prefecture University, 1-1 Gakuencho, Naka-ku, Sakai 599-8531 (Japan); Kurths, Juergen [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam (Germany)] [Department of Physics, Humboldt University Berlin, Newtonstr. 15, 12489 Berlin (Germany)

    2009-11-09

    We propose a novel approach for analysing time series using complex network theory. We identify the recurrence matrix (calculated from time series) with the adjacency matrix of a complex network and apply measures for the characterisation of complex networks to this recurrence matrix. By using the logistic map, we illustrate the potential of these complex network measures for the detection of dynamical transitions. Finally, we apply the proposed approach to a marine palaeo-climate record and identify the subtle changes to the climate regime.

  14. Public participation in the process of local public health policy, using policy network analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Yukyung; Kim, Chang-Yup; You, Myoung Soon; Lee, Kun Sei; Park, Eunyoung

    2014-11-01

    To assess the current public participation in-local health policy and its implications through the analysis of policy networks in health center programs. We examined the decision-making process in sub-health center installations and the implementation process in metabolic syndrome management program cases in two districts ('gu's) of Seoul. Participants of the policy network were selected by the snowballing method and completed self-administered questionnaires. Actors, the interactions among actors, and the characteristics of the network were analyzed by Netminer. The results showed that the public is not yet actively participating in the local public health policy processes of decision-making and implementation. In the decision-making process, most of the network actors were in the public sector, while the private sector was a minor actor and participated in only a limited number of issues after the major decisions were made. In the implementation process, the program was led by the health center, while other actors participated passively. Public participation in Korean public health policy is not yet well activated. Preliminary discussions with various stakeholders, including civil society, are needed before making important local public health policy decisions. In addition, efforts to include local institutions and residents in the implementation process with the public officials are necessary to improve the situation.

  15. River catchment rainfall series analysis using additive Holt–Winters ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Kwon 2007; Guhathakurta and Rajeevan 2008;. Wong et al. 2009; Obot et .... is the major area for economic growth since Putrajaya City, the Federal ..... by Lewis (1982). MAPEs shown in monthly series were unsatisfactory with the values from 64.93% to 182.25%, and these values are categorized as. 'inaccurate forecast'.

  16. Multivariate Time Series Analysis for Optimum Production Forecast ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... by 0.002579KG/Month. Finally, this work adds to the growing body of literature on data-driven production and inventory management by utilizing historical data in the development of useful forecasting mathematical model. Keywords: production model, inventory management, multivariate time series, production forecast ...

  17. Koopman Operator Framework for Time Series Modeling and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surana, Amit

    2018-01-01

    We propose an interdisciplinary framework for time series classification, forecasting, and anomaly detection by combining concepts from Koopman operator theory, machine learning, and linear systems and control theory. At the core of this framework is nonlinear dynamic generative modeling of time series using the Koopman operator which is an infinite-dimensional but linear operator. Rather than working with the underlying nonlinear model, we propose two simpler linear representations or model forms based on Koopman spectral properties. We show that these model forms are invariants of the generative model and can be readily identified directly from data using techniques for computing Koopman spectral properties without requiring the explicit knowledge of the generative model. We also introduce different notions of distances on the space of such model forms which is essential for model comparison/clustering. We employ the space of Koopman model forms equipped with distance in conjunction with classical machine learning techniques to develop a framework for automatic feature generation for time series classification. The forecasting/anomaly detection framework is based on using Koopman model forms along with classical linear systems and control approaches. We demonstrate the proposed framework for human activity classification, and for time series forecasting/anomaly detection in power grid application.

  18. Multivariate Time Series Analysis for Optimum Production Forecast ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    FIRST LADY

    on data-driven production and inventory management by utilizing historical data in the development of useful forecasting mathematical model. Keywords: production model, inventory management, multivariate time series, production forecast. Introduction. A large assortment of forecasting techniques has been developed ...

  19. Global climate change policies. An analysis of CDM policies with an adapted GTAP model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Shunli

    2004-01-01

    In the context of the relationships between spatial-economic interaction and global warming just discussed, this study aims to analyze the Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) policies from an economic point of view. The research question of this study is formulated as follows: What will be the impacts of clirnate change policies, in particular CDM policies, on the economic performance of (groups of) countries in our global economic system, taking spatial interaction and general equilibrium effects into account? The purpose of addressing the issue of economic performance for (groups of) countries in the economic system is not just to identify winners and losers from international treaties. Rather, winning or losing may even determine the implementation and willingness of individual countries to participate in international environmental treaties, as illustrated by the recent withdrawal of the US from the Kyoto Protocol. By analyzing the economic impacts of an international environmental treaty for individual (groups of) countries, the framework that will be used to analyze this research question may be useful to determine the attractiveness of some global environmental policies, both for the world as a whole and for individual (groups of) countries. The research question will be answered by dividing it into six subquestions: (1) What is the position of CDM policies in the broad context of climate policy regimes?; (2) How should the relationship between human behavior and the physical environment be ideally modeled from an economic perspective? (3) How should the spatial dimension be incorporated in this framework of interaction between the economic and ecological system?; (4) How can climate change issues be incorporated in general equilibrium models in general, and in GTAP-E (extension of the Global Trade Analysis Project) in particular?; (5) How can CDM policies be implemented in the GTAP-E model?; and (6) What are the impacts of these climate change policies on

  20. Bangladesh policy on prevention and control of non-communicable diseases: a policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biswas, Tuhin; Pervin, Sonia; Tanim, Md Imtiaz Alam; Niessen, Louis; Islam, Anwar

    2017-06-19

    This paper is aimed at critically assessing the extent to which Non-Communicable Disease NCD-related policies introduced in Bangladesh align with the World Health Organization's (WHO) 2013-2020 Action Plan for the Global Strategy for the Prevention and Control of NCDs. The authors reviewed all relevant policy documents introduced by the Government of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. The literature review targeted scientific and grey literature documents involving internet-based search, and expert consultation and snowballing to identify relevant policy documents. Information was extracted from the documents using a specific matrix, mapping each document against the six objectives of the WHO 2013-2020 Action Plan for the Global Strategy for the Prevention and Control of NCDs. A total of 51 documents were identified. Seven (14%) were research and/or surveys, nine were on established policies (17%), while seventeen (33%) were on action programmes. Five (10%) were related to guidelines and thirteen (25%) were strategic planning documents from government and non-government agencies/institutes. The study covered documents produced by the Government of Bangladesh as well as those by quasi-government and non-government organizations irrespective of the extent to which the intended policies were implemented. The policy analysis findings suggest that although the government has initiated many NCD-related policies or programs, they lacked proper planning, implementation and monitoring. Consequently, Bangladesh over the years had little success in effectively addressing the growing burden of non-communicable diseases. It is imperative that future research critically assess the effectiveness of national NCD policies by monitoring their implementation and level of population coverage.

  1. Complexity analysis of the turbulent environmental fluid flow time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihailović, D. T.; Nikolić-Đorić, E.; Drešković, N.; Mimić, G.

    2014-02-01

    We have used the Kolmogorov complexities, sample and permutation entropies to quantify the randomness degree in river flow time series of two mountain rivers in Bosnia and Herzegovina, representing the turbulent environmental fluid, for the period 1926-1990. In particular, we have examined the monthly river flow time series from two rivers (the Miljacka and the Bosnia) in the mountain part of their flow and then calculated the Kolmogorov complexity (KL) based on the Lempel-Ziv Algorithm (LZA) (lower-KLL and upper-KLU), sample entropy (SE) and permutation entropy (PE) values for each time series. The results indicate that the KLL, KLU, SE and PE values in two rivers are close to each other regardless of the amplitude differences in their monthly flow rates. We have illustrated the changes in mountain river flow complexity by experiments using (i) the data set for the Bosnia River and (ii) anticipated human activities and projected climate changes. We have explored the sensitivity of considered measures in dependence on the length of time series. In addition, we have divided the period 1926-1990 into three subintervals: (a) 1926-1945, (b) 1946-1965, (c) 1966-1990, and calculated the KLL, KLU, SE, PE values for the various time series in these subintervals. It is found that during the period 1946-1965, there is a decrease in their complexities, and corresponding changes in the SE and PE, in comparison to the period 1926-1990. This complexity loss may be primarily attributed to (i) human interventions, after the Second World War, on these two rivers because of their use for water consumption and (ii) climate change in recent times.

  2. Quality in environmental science for policy: assessing uncertainty as a component of policy analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maxim, L.; van der Sluijs, J.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073427489

    2011-01-01

    The sheer number of attempts to define and classify uncertainty reveals an awareness of its importance in environmental science for policy, though the nature of uncertainty is often misunderstood. The interdisciplinary field of uncertainty analysis is unstable; there are currently several incomplete

  3. A Policy Analysis of Student Attendance Standards Related to State Education Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guilliams, Mary Elizabeth

    2014-01-01

    This paper is a project report of a policy analysis of state attendance information available to public schools. Current state attendance information rarely expands beyond compulsory attendance law. It is vague, non-existent or difficult to find. Research provides strong links between student attendance and achievement. Informed school leaders…

  4. Multiscale multifractal multiproperty analysis of financial time series based on Rényi entropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yujun, Yang; Jianping, Li; Yimei, Yang

    This paper introduces a multiscale multifractal multiproperty analysis based on Rényi entropy (3MPAR) method to analyze short-range and long-range characteristics of financial time series, and then applies this method to the five time series of five properties in four stock indices. Combining the two analysis techniques of Rényi entropy and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA), the 3MPAR method focuses on the curves of Rényi entropy and generalized Hurst exponent of five properties of four stock time series, which allows us to study more universal and subtle fluctuation characteristics of financial time series. By analyzing the curves of the Rényi entropy and the profiles of the logarithm distribution of MFDFA of five properties of four stock indices, the 3MPAR method shows some fluctuation characteristics of the financial time series and the stock markets. Then, it also shows a richer information of the financial time series by comparing the profile of five properties of four stock indices. In this paper, we not only focus on the multifractality of time series but also the fluctuation characteristics of the financial time series and subtle differences in the time series of different properties. We find that financial time series is far more complex than reported in some research works using one property of time series.

  5. Comparative analysis of alcohol control policies in 30 countries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald A Brand

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Alcohol consumption causes an estimated 4% of the global disease burden, prompting governments to impose regulations to mitigate the adverse effects of alcohol. To assist public health leaders and policymakers, the authors developed a composite indicator-the Alcohol Policy Index-to gauge the strength of a country's alcohol control policies.The Index generates a score based on policies from five regulatory domains-physical availability of alcohol, drinking context, alcohol prices, alcohol advertising, and operation of motor vehicles. The Index was applied to the 30 countries that compose the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between policy score and per capita alcohol consumption. Countries attained a median score of 42.4 of a possible 100 points, ranging from 14.5 (Luxembourg to 67.3 (Norway. The analysis revealed a strong negative correlation between score and consumption (r = -0.57; p = 0.001: a 10-point increase in the score was associated with a one-liter decrease in absolute alcohol consumption per person per year (95% confidence interval, 0.4-1.5 l. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated the robustness of the Index by showing that countries' scores and ranks remained relatively stable in response to variations in methodological assumptions.The strength of alcohol control policies, as estimated by the Alcohol Policy Index, varied widely among 30 countries located in Europe, Asia, North America, and Australia. The study revealed a clear inverse relationship between policy strength and alcohol consumption. The Index provides a straightforward tool for facilitating international comparisons. In addition, it can help policymakers review and strengthen existing regulations aimed at minimizing alcohol-related harm and estimate the likely impact of policy changes.

  6. A social network analysis of Canadian food insecurity policy actors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntyre, Lynn; Jessiman-Perreault, Geneviève; Mah, Catherine L; Godley, Jenny

    2018-01-31

    This paper aims to: (i) visualize the networks of food insecurity policy actors in Canada, (ii) identify potential food insecurity policy entrepreneurs (i.e., individuals with voice, connections, and persistence) within these networks, and (iii) examine the political landscape for action on food insecurity as revealed by social network analysis. A survey was administered to 93 Canadian food insecurity policy actors. They were each asked to nominate 3 individuals whom they believed to be policy entrepreneurs. Ego-centred social network maps (sociograms) were generated based on data on nominees and nominators. Seventy-two percent of the actors completed the survey; 117 unique nominations ensued. Eleven actors obtained 3 or more nominations and thus were considered policy entrepreneurs. The majority of actors nominated actors from the same province (71.5%) and with a similar approach to theirs to addressing food insecurity (54.8%). Most nominees worked in research, charitable, and other nongovernmental organizations. Networks of Canadian food insecurity policy actors exist but are limited in scope and reach, with a paucity of policy entrepreneurs from political, private, or governmental jurisdictions. The networks are divided between food-based solution actors and income-based solution actors, which might impede collaboration among those with differing approaches to addressing food insecurity.

  7. A comparative analysis of policies addressing rural oral health in eight English-speaking OECD countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crocombe, Leonard A; Goldberg, Lynette R; Bell, Erica; Seidel, Bastian

    2017-01-01

    Oral health is fundamental to overall health. Poor oral health is largely preventable but unacceptable inequalities exist, particularly for people in rural areas. The issues are complex. Rural populations are characterised by lower rates of health insurance, higher rates of poverty, less water fluoridation, fewer dentists and oral health specialists, and greater distances to access care. These factors inter-relate with educational, attitudinal, and system-level issues. An important area of enquiry is whether and how national oral health policies address causes and solutions for poor rural oral health. The purpose of this study was to examine a series of government policies on oral health to (i) determine the extent to which such policies addressed rural oral health issues, and (ii) identify enabling assumptions in policy language about problems and solutions regarding rural communities. Eight current oral health policies were identified from Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the USA, England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales. Validated content and critical discourse analyses were used to document and explore the concepts in these policy documents, with a particular focus on the frequency with which rural oral health was mentioned, and the enabling assumptions in policy language about rural communities. Seventy-three concepts relating to oral health were identified from the textual analysis of the eight policy documents. The rural concept addressing oral health issues occurred in only 2% of all policies and was notably absent from the oral health policies of countries with substantial rural populations. It occurred most frequently in the policy documents from Australia and Scotland, less so in the policy documents from Canada, Wales, and New Zealand, and not at all in the oral health policies from the US, England, and Northern Ireland. Thus, the oral health needs of rural communities were generally not the focus of, nor included in, the oral health policy

  8. Modeling Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index Using Time Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayo, W. S.; Urrutia, J. D.; Temple, J. M. F.; Sandoval, J. R. D.; Sanglay, J. E. A.

    2015-06-01

    This study was conducted to develop a time series model of the Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index and its volatility using the finite mixture of ARIMA model with conditional variance equations such as ARCH, GARCH, EG ARCH, TARCH and PARCH models. Also, the study aimed to find out the reason behind the behaviorof PSEi, that is, which of the economic variables - Consumer Price Index, crude oil price, foreign exchange rate, gold price, interest rate, money supply, price-earnings ratio, Producers’ Price Index and terms of trade - can be used in projecting future values of PSEi and this was examined using Granger Causality Test. The findings showed that the best time series model for Philippine Stock Exchange Composite index is ARIMA(1,1,5) - ARCH(1). Also, Consumer Price Index, crude oil price and foreign exchange rate are factors concluded to Granger cause Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index.

  9. Time series analysis of the behavior of brazilian natural rubber

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antônio Donizette de Oliveira

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The natural rubber is a non-wood product obtained of the coagulation of some lattices of forest species, being Hevea brasiliensis the main one. Native from the Amazon Region, this species was already known by the Indians before the discovery of America. The natural rubber became a product globally valued due to its multiple applications in the economy, being its almost perfect substitute the synthetic rubber derived from the petroleum. Similarly to what happens with other countless products the forecast of future prices of the natural rubber has been object of many studies. The use of models of forecast of univariate timeseries stands out as the more accurate and useful to reduce the uncertainty in the economic decision making process. This studyanalyzed the historical series of prices of the Brazilian natural rubber (R$/kg, in the Jan/99 - Jun/2006 period, in order tocharacterize the rubber price behavior in the domestic market; estimated a model for the time series of monthly natural rubberprices; and foresaw the domestic prices of the natural rubber, in the Jul/2006 - Jun/2007 period, based on the estimated models.The studied models were the ones belonging to the ARIMA family. The main results were: the domestic market of the natural rubberis expanding due to the growth of the world economy; among the adjusted models, the ARIMA (1,1,1 model provided the bestadjustment of the time series of prices of the natural rubber (R$/kg; the prognosis accomplished for the series supplied statistically adequate fittings.

  10. Wavelet-Based Multi-Scale Entropy Analysis of Complex Rainfall Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-Ming Chou

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel framework to determine the number of resolution levels in the application of a wavelet transformation to a rainfall time series. The rainfall time series are decomposed using the à trous wavelet transform. Then, multi-scale entropy (MSE analysis that helps to elucidate some hidden characteristics of the original rainfall time series is applied to the decomposed rainfall time series. The analysis shows that the Mann-Kendall (MK rank correlation test of MSE curves of residuals at various resolution levels could determine the number of resolution levels in the wavelet decomposition. The complexity of rainfall time series at four stations on a multi-scale is compared. The results reveal that the suggested number of resolution levels can be obtained using MSE analysis and MK test. The complexity of rainfall time series at various locations can also be analyzed to provide a reference for water resource planning and application.

  11. Financial time series analysis based on information categorization method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Qiang; Shang, Pengjian; Feng, Guochen

    2014-12-01

    The paper mainly applies the information categorization method to analyze the financial time series. The method is used to examine the similarity of different sequences by calculating the distances between them. We apply this method to quantify the similarity of different stock markets. And we report the results of similarity in US and Chinese stock markets in periods 1991-1998 (before the Asian currency crisis), 1999-2006 (after the Asian currency crisis and before the global financial crisis), and 2007-2013 (during and after global financial crisis) by using this method. The results show the difference of similarity between different stock markets in different time periods and the similarity of the two stock markets become larger after these two crises. Also we acquire the results of similarity of 10 stock indices in three areas; it means the method can distinguish different areas' markets from the phylogenetic trees. The results show that we can get satisfactory information from financial markets by this method. The information categorization method can not only be used in physiologic time series, but also in financial time series.

  12. Dynamical analysis and visualization of tornadoes time series.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    António M Lopes

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyze the behavior of tornado time-series in the U.S. from the perspective of dynamical systems. A tornado is a violently rotating column of air extending from a cumulonimbus cloud down to the ground. Such phenomena reveal features that are well described by power law functions and unveil characteristics found in systems with long range memory effects. Tornado time series are viewed as the output of a complex system and are interpreted as a manifestation of its dynamics. Tornadoes are modeled as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the events size. First, a collection of time series involving 64 years is analyzed in the frequency domain by means of the Fourier transform. The amplitude spectra are approximated by power law functions and their parameters are read as an underlying signature of the system dynamics. Second, it is adopted the concept of circular time and the collective behavior of tornadoes analyzed. Clustering techniques are then adopted to identify and visualize the emerging patterns.

  13. Dynamical analysis and visualization of tornadoes time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, António M; Tenreiro Machado, J A

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the behavior of tornado time-series in the U.S. from the perspective of dynamical systems. A tornado is a violently rotating column of air extending from a cumulonimbus cloud down to the ground. Such phenomena reveal features that are well described by power law functions and unveil characteristics found in systems with long range memory effects. Tornado time series are viewed as the output of a complex system and are interpreted as a manifestation of its dynamics. Tornadoes are modeled as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the events size. First, a collection of time series involving 64 years is analyzed in the frequency domain by means of the Fourier transform. The amplitude spectra are approximated by power law functions and their parameters are read as an underlying signature of the system dynamics. Second, it is adopted the concept of circular time and the collective behavior of tornadoes analyzed. Clustering techniques are then adopted to identify and visualize the emerging patterns.

  14. Seasonality of Tuberculosis in Delhi, India: A Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varun Kumar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. It is highly cost effective to detect a seasonal trend in tuberculosis in order to optimize disease control and intervention. Although seasonal variation of tuberculosis has been reported from different parts of the world, no definite and consistent pattern has been observed. Therefore, the study was designed to find the seasonal variation of tuberculosis in Delhi, India. Methods. Retrospective record based study was undertaken in a Directly Observed Treatment Short course (DOTS centre located in the south district of Delhi. Six-year data from January 2007 to December 2012 was analyzed. Expert modeler of SPSS ver. 21 software was used to fit the best suitable model for the time series data. Results. Autocorrelation function (ACF and partial autocorrelation function (PACF at lag 12 show significant peak suggesting seasonal component of the TB series. Seasonal adjusted factor (SAF showed peak seasonal variation from March to May. Univariate model by expert modeler in the SPSS showed that Winter’s multiplicative model could best predict the time series data with 69.8% variability. The forecast shows declining trend with seasonality. Conclusion. A seasonal pattern and declining trend with variable amplitudes of fluctuation were observed in the incidence of tuberculosis.

  15. Seasonality of tuberculosis in delhi, India: a time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Varun; Singh, Abhay; Adhikary, Mrinmoy; Daral, Shailaja; Khokhar, Anita; Singh, Saudan

    2014-01-01

    Background. It is highly cost effective to detect a seasonal trend in tuberculosis in order to optimize disease control and intervention. Although seasonal variation of tuberculosis has been reported from different parts of the world, no definite and consistent pattern has been observed. Therefore, the study was designed to find the seasonal variation of tuberculosis in Delhi, India. Methods. Retrospective record based study was undertaken in a Directly Observed Treatment Short course (DOTS) centre located in the south district of Delhi. Six-year data from January 2007 to December 2012 was analyzed. Expert modeler of SPSS ver. 21 software was used to fit the best suitable model for the time series data. Results. Autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) at lag 12 show significant peak suggesting seasonal component of the TB series. Seasonal adjusted factor (SAF) showed peak seasonal variation from March to May. Univariate model by expert modeler in the SPSS showed that Winter's multiplicative model could best predict the time series data with 69.8% variability. The forecast shows declining trend with seasonality. Conclusion. A seasonal pattern and declining trend with variable amplitudes of fluctuation were observed in the incidence of tuberculosis.

  16. A game theory analysis of green infrastructure stormwater management policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    William, Reshmina; Garg, Jugal; Stillwell, Ashlynn S.

    2017-09-01

    Green stormwater infrastructure has been demonstrated as an innovative water resources management approach that addresses multiple challenges facing urban environments. However, there is little consensus on what policy strategies can be used to best incentivize green infrastructure adoption by private landowners. Game theory, an analysis framework that has historically been under-utilized within the context of stormwater management, is uniquely suited to address this policy question. We used a cooperative game theory framework to investigate the potential impacts of different policy strategies used to incentivize green infrastructure installation. The results indicate that municipal regulation leads to the greatest reduction in pollutant loading. However, the choice of the "best" regulatory approach will depend on a variety of different factors including politics and financial considerations. Large, downstream agents have a disproportionate share of bargaining power. Results also reveal that policy impacts are highly dependent on agents' spatial position within the stormwater network, leading to important questions of social equity and environmental justice.

  17. Irrigation water policy analysis using a business simulation game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchholz, M.; Holst, G.; Musshoff, O.

    2016-10-01

    Despite numerous studies on farmers' responses to changing irrigation water policies, uncertainties remain about the potential of water pricing schemes and water quotas to reduce irrigation. Thus far, policy impact analysis is predominantly based upon rational choice models that assume behavioral assumptions, such as a perfectly rational profit-maximizing decision maker. Also, econometric techniques are applied which could lack internal validity due to uncontrolled field data. Furthermore, such techniques are not capable of identifying ill-designed policies prior to their implementation. With this in mind, we apply a business simulation game for ex ante policy impact analysis of irrigation water policies at the farm level. Our approach has the potential to reveal the policy-induced behavioral change of the participants in a controlled environment. To do so, we investigate how real farmers from Germany, in an economic experiment, respond to a water pricing scheme and a water quota intending to reduce irrigation. In the business simulation game, the participants manage a "virtual" cash-crop farm for which they make crop allocation and irrigation decisions during several production periods, while facing uncertain product prices and weather conditions. The results reveal that a water quota is able to reduce mean irrigation applications, while a water pricing scheme does not have an impact, even though both policies exhibit equal income effects for the farmers. However, both policies appear to increase the variation of irrigation applications. Compared to a perfectly rational profit-maximizing decision maker, the participants apply less irrigation on average, both when irrigation is not restricted and when a water pricing scheme applies. Moreover, the participants' risk attitude affects the irrigation decisions.

  18. Divergence analysis of atomic ionization processes and isoelectronic series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez-Rosa, S.; Angulo, J. C.; Antolin, J.; Esquivel, R. O.

    2009-01-01

    Fisher divergences (FDs) and Jensen-Shannon divergences (JSDs) are used in this work to quantify the informational discrepancies between the one-particle electron densities of neutral atoms, singly charged ions, and isoelectronic series. These dissimilarity magnitudes, computed for a set of 319 atomic systems in both position and momentum spaces, provide relevant information concerning pattern, structure, and periodicity properties of the ionization processes. In particular an apparent correlation between extremal values of the atomic ionization potential and the divergences is found. Results are compared with those obtained by quantum similarity techniques.

  19. Dividend Policy and Corporate Value (A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tifani Titah Dwi Tyastari

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to understand the effect of dividend policy on corporate value, as well as to examine and analyze the variation of result study on corporate value in Indonesia.Dividend Signaling Model was the grand theory used to explain the effect of dividend policy on corporate value. This study used meta-analysis approach with the sample were 70 researches in Indonesia, both the published and unpublished in 2007-2015. The result of this study, meta-analysis strengthens the findings of the previous study which stated that the dividend policy could increase the corporate value. The differences of the previous studies were due to the presence of moderation effect from the measurement model of corporate value and dividend corporate.

  20. Non-stationary hydrological frequency analysis based on the reconstruction of extreme hydrological series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Y. M.; Liang, Z. M.; Jiang, X. L.; Bu, H.

    2015-06-01

    In this paper, a novel approach for non-stationary hydrological frequency analysis is proposed. The approach is due to the following consideration that, at present the data series used to detect mutation characteristic is very short, which may only reflect the partial characteristic of the population. That is to say, the mutation characteristic of short series may not fully represent the mutation characteristic of population, such as the difference of mutation degree between short sample and population. In this proposed method, an assumption is done that the variation hydrological series in a big time window owns an expected vibration center (EVC), which is a linear combination of the two mean values of the two subsample series obtained through separating the original hydrological series by a novel optimal segmentation technique (change rate of slope method). Then using the EVC to reconstruct non-stationary series to meet the requirement of stationary, and further ensure the conventional frequency analysis methods is valid.

  1. Anatomy of the ICDS series: A bibliometric analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cardona, Manuel; Marx, Werner

    2007-01-01

    In this article, the proceedings of the International Conferences on Defects in Semiconductors (ICDS) have been analyzed by bibliometric methods. The papers of these conferences have been published as articles in regular journals or special proceedings journals and in books with diverse publishers. The conference name/title changed several times. Many of the proceedings did not appear in the so-called 'source journals' covered by the Thomson/ISI citation databases, in particular by the Science Citation Index (SCI). But the number of citations within these source journals can be determined using the Cited Reference Search mode under the Web of Science (WoS) and the SCI offered by the host STN International. The search functions of both systems were needed to select the papers published as different document types and to cover the full time span of the series. The most cited ICDS papers were identified, and the overall numbers of citations as well as the time-dependent impact of these papers, of single conferences, and of the complete series, was established. The complete of citing papers was analyzed with respect to the countries of the citing authors, the citing journals, and the ISI subject categories

  2. Competitive analysis of soybean and sudangrass using replacement series design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauro Antônio Rizzardi

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Competition is the best known form of direct interference of weeds on agricultural crops. However, there is relatively little information on the competition of the weed sudangrass on soybean, which has been common in agricultural areas in the southern of Rio Grande do Sul. The objective of this study was to evaluate the competition between sudangrass and soybeans using replacement series experiments. The experiment was carried out in a greenhouse in a completely randomized design with four replications. The treatments consisted of soybean and sudangrass associations. The experimental units were 8-L plastic pots, in the proportions 0: 8, 2: 6, 4: 4, 6: 2, 8: 0, corresponding to 0, 25, 50, 75 and 100% of the crop and weed respectively. Shoot, root and total dry matter and plant height were analyzed through diagrams applied to replacement series and competitive indices. Soybean showed competitive superiority in coexistence with sudangrass in relation to shoot, root and total dry matter. The intraspecific competition was more significant for the crop and inter-specific competition was more important for the weed.

  3. An econometric time-series analysis of global CO2 concentrations and emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.C.; Labys, W.C.; Eliste, P.

    2001-01-01

    This paper extends previous work on the econometric modelling of CO 2 concentrations and emissions. The importance of such work rests in the fact that models of the Cohen-Labys variety represent the only alternative to scientific or physical models of CO 2 accumulations whose parameters are inferred rather than estimated. The stimulation for this study derives from the recent discovery of oscillations and cycles in the net biospheric flux of CO 2 . A variety of time series tests is thus used to search for the presence of normality, stationarity, cyclicality and stochastic processes in global CO 2 emissions and concentrations series. Given the evidence for cyclicality of a short-run nature in the spectra of these series, both structural time series and error correction model are applied to confirm the frequency and amplitude of these cycles. Our results suggest new possibilities for determining equilibrium levels of CO 2 concentrations and subsequently revising stabilization policies. (Author)

  4. Values in Health Policy – A Concept Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lida Shams

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background Despite the significant role “values” play in decision-making no definition or attributes regarding the concept have been provided in health policy-making. This study aimed to clarify the defining attributes of a concept of value and its irrelevant structures in health policy-making. We anticipate our findings will help reduce the semantic ambiguities associated with the use of “values” and other concepts such as principles, criteria, attitudes, and beliefs. Methods An extensive search of literature was carried out using electronic data base and library. The overall search strategy yielded about 1540 articles and 450 additional records. Based on traditional qualitative research, studies were purposefully selected and the coding of articles continued until data saturation was reached. Accordingly, 31 articles, 2 books, and 5 other documents were selected for the review. We applied Walker and Avant’s method of concept analysis in studying the phenomenon. Definitions, applications, attributes, antecedents, and consequences of the concept of “value in health policy-making” were extracted. We also identified similarities and differences that exist between and within them. Results We identified eight major attributes of “value in health policy-making”: ideological origin, affect one’s choices, more resistant to change over time, source of motivation, ability to sacrifice one’s interest, goal-oriented nature for community, trans-situational and subjectivity. Other features pinpointed include alternatives, antecedents, and consequences. Alternative, antecedents and consequences case may have more or fewer attributes or may lack one of these attributes and at the same time have other distinctive ones. Conclusion Despite the use of the value framework, ambiguities still persist in providing definition of the concept value in health policy-making. Understanding the concept of value in health policy-making may provide extra

  5. The Analysis Of Personality Disorder On Two Characters In The Animation Series Black Rock Shooter

    OpenAIRE

    Ramadhana, Rizki Andrian

    2015-01-01

    The title of this thesis is The Analysis of Personality Disorder on Two Characters in the Animation Series “Black Rock Shooter” which discusses about the personality disorder of two characters from this series; they are Kagari Izuriha and Yomi Takanashi. The animation series Black Rock Shooter is chosen as the source of data because this animation has psychological genre and represents the complexity of human relationship, especially when build up a friendship. It is because human is a social...

  6. BSMART: A Matlab/C toolbox for analysis of multichannel neural time series

    OpenAIRE

    Cui, Jie; Xu, Lei; Bressler, Steven L.; Ding, Mingzhou; Liang, Hualou

    2008-01-01

    We have developed a Matlab/C toolbox, Brain-SMART (System for Multivariate AutoRegressive Time series, or BSMART), for spectral analysis of continuous neural time series data recorded simultaneously from multiple sensors. Available functions include time series data importing/exporting, preprocessing (normalization and trend removal), AutoRegressive (AR) modeling (multivariate/bivariate model estimation and validation), spectral quantity estimation (auto power, coherence and Granger causality...

  7. Data Envelopment Analysis of different climate policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bosetti, Valentina; Buchner, Barbara

    2009-01-01

    Recent developments in the political, scientific and economic debate on climate change suggest that it is of critical importance to develop new approaches able to compare policy scenarios for their environmental effectiveness, their distributive effects, their enforceability, their costs and many other dimensions. This paper discusses a quantitative methodology to assess the relative performance of different climate policy scenarios when accounting for their long-term economic, social and environmental impacts. The proposed procedure is based on Data Envelopment Analysis, here employed in evaluating the relative efficiency of eleven global climate policy scenarios. The methodology provides a promising comparison framework; it can be seen as a way of setting some basic guidelines to frame further debates and negotiations and can be flexibly adopted and modified by decision makers to obtain relevant information for policy design. Three major findings emerge from this analysis: (1) stringent climate policies can outperform less ambitious proposals if all sustainability dimensions are taken into account; (2) a carefully chosen burden-sharing rule is able to bring together climate stabilisation and equity considerations; and (3) the most inefficient strategy results from the failure to negotiate a post-2012 global climate agreement. (author)

  8. Barriers' and policies' analysis of China's building energy efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yurong; Wang, Yuanfeng

    2013-01-01

    With the rapid economic growth and the improvement of people's living standards, China's building energy consumption has kept rising during the past 15 years. Under the effort of the Chinese government and the society, China's building energy efficiency has made certain achievements. However, the implementation of building energy efficiency in China is still far from its potential. Based on the analysis of the existing policies implemented in China, the article concluded that the most essential and the most effective ways to promote building energy efficiency is the government's involvement as well as economic and financial incentives. In addition, the main barriers in the process of promoting building energy efficiency in China are identified in six aspects. It has been found that the legal system and administrative issues constitute major barriers, and the lack of financial incentives and the mismatching of market mechanism also hamper the promotion of building energy efficiency. Finally, in view of the existing policies and barriers analysis, three corresponding policy proposals are presented. -- Highlights: •The existing policies implemented in China from three aspects are presented and analysed. •The Government's involvement is the most essential effective way to promote building-energy efficiency. •Six aspects of barriers in promoting building energy efficiency in China are identified. •The legal system and administrative issues constitute the major barriers. •Three policy proposals to further promote building energy efficiency in China are proposed

  9. Building Capacity in Health Systems and Policy Analysis in sub ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    1 avr. 2010 ... Building Capacity in Health Systems and Policy Analysis in sub-Saharan Africa. Since 2005, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has been financing the master's program in health and population at the Institut supérieure des sciences de la population (ISSP), Université de Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.

  10. Statistical Compilation of the ICT Sector and Policy Analysis | CRDI ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Statistical Compilation of the ICT Sector and Policy Analysis. As the presence and influence of information and communication technologies (ICTs) continues to widen and deepen, so too does its impact on economic development. However, much work needs to be done before the linkages between economic development ...

  11. A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagos, Ricardo; Wright, Randall

    2005-01-01

    Search-theoretic models of monetary exchange are based on explicit descriptions of the frictions that make money essential. However, tractable versions of these models typically make strong assumptions that render them ill suited for monetary policy analysis. We propose a new framework, based on explicit micro foundations, within which macro…

  12. Economic evaluation and Applications of the Policy Analysis Matrix ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    use

    2011-12-07

    Dec 7, 2011 ... accomplished based on society values of products, internal and external product and the third row of matrix is gotten from discrepancy between first and second rows and utilized in policy analysis. Also, the calculations of relative advantage indicators are presented in Table 2. The shadowy value of opened ...

  13. Economic evaluation and Applications of the Policy Analysis Matrix ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    By using benefit to costs index, internal rate of return, net present value and policy analysis matrix were calculated. The results show that intercropping was affordable than sole cropping. Sole cropping of these crops had no relative advantage, while mixed cropping had a relative advantage than sole cropping. Nominal ...

  14. Building Capacity in Health Systems and Policy Analysis in sub ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Building Capacity in Health Systems and Policy Analysis in sub-Saharan Africa. Since 2005, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has been financing the master's program in health and population at the Institut supérieure des sciences de la population (ISSP), Université de Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. However, after ...

  15. A Critical Policy Analysis of Texas' "Closing the Gaps 2015"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansfield, Katherine Cumings; Thackik, Stefani Leigh

    2016-01-01

    This critical policy analysis uses critical race theory to provide a counter narrative to the P-16 initiative in Texas known as "Closing the Gaps 2015". Findings indicate that while these reforms aim to increase educational access and achievement for people of color, they fall short of addressing systemic inequities such as enduring…

  16. Palliative care policy analysis in Iran: A conceptual model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mojgan Ansari

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Palliative care programs are rapidly evolving for patients with life-threatening illnesses. Increased and earlier access for facilities is a subject of growing importance in health services, policy, and research. Aim: This study was conducted to explain stakeholders' perceptions of the factors affecting the design of such a palliative care system and its policy analysis. Methodology: Semi-structured in-depth interviews conducted following purposive sampling of the participants. Twenty-two participants were included in the study. The interviews were analyzed using qualitative-directed content analysis based on "policy analysis triangle" framework. Results: The findings showed the impact of four categories, namely context (political, social, and structural feasibility, content (target setting, process (attracting stakeholder participation, the standardization of care, and education management, and actors (the Ministry of Health and Medical Education, health-care providers, and volunteers in the analysis of the palliative care policies of Iran. Conclusion: In the past 6 years, attention to palliative care has increased significantly as a result of the National Cancer Research Network with the support of the Ministry of Health. The success of health system plan requires great attention to its aspects of social, political, and executive feasibility. Careful management by policymakers of different stakeholders is vital to ensure support for any national plan, but this is challenging to achieve.

  17. ORIGINAL ARTICLE Analysis of Ethiopia's National ICT Policy and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    as infrastructure, services, applications, universal access, cyber security, social media, and users. Broadband infrastructure development is ... other technologies it enables to transform organizations and redefine social relations. In essence, ... public policies and disciplines. First, document analysis was carried out to study.

  18. Research, Evaluation, and Policy Analysis: Heuristics for Disciplined Inquiry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lincoln, Yvonna S.; Guba, Egon E.

    Research, evaluation, and policy analysis are elements of inquiry whose functions, aims, purposes, intended audiences, and intended outcomes have been confused in the literature discussing how to accomplish them. Using the definition of "disciplined inquiry" provided by Cronbach and Suppes (1969), which defines disciplined inquiry as the…

  19. A health app developer's guide to law and policy: a multi-sector policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Lisa; Karliychuk, Tanya; Gillies, Donna; Mintzes, Barbara; Raven, Melissa; Grundy, Quinn

    2017-10-02

    Apps targeted at health and wellbeing sit in a rapidly growing industry associated with widespread optimism about their potential to deliver accessible and cost-effective healthcare. App developers might not be aware of all the regulatory requirements and best practice principles are emergent. Health apps are regulated in order to minimise their potential for harm due to, for example, loss of personal health privacy, financial costs, and health harms from delayed or unnecessary diagnosis, monitoring and treatment. We aimed to produce a comprehensive guide to assist app developers in producing health apps that are legally compliant and in keeping with high professional standards of user protection. We conducted a case study analysis of the Australian and related international policy environment for mental health apps to identify relevant sectors, policy actors, and policy solutions. We identified 29 policies produced by governments and non-government organisations that provide oversight of health apps. In consultation with stakeholders, we developed an interactive tool targeted at app developers, summarising key features of the policy environment and highlighting legislative, industry and professional standards around seven relevant domains: privacy, security, content, promotion and advertising, consumer finances, medical device efficacy and safety, and professional ethics. We annotated this developer guidance tool with information about: the relevance of each domain; existing legislative and non-legislative guidance; critiques of existing policy; recommendations for developers; and suggestions for other key stakeholders. We anticipate that mental health apps developed in accordance with this tool will be more likely to conform to regulatory requirements, protect consumer privacy, protect consumer finances, and deliver health benefit; and less likely to attract regulatory penalties, offend consumers and communities, mislead consumers, or deliver health harms. We

  20. A Multivariate Time Series Method for Monte Carlo Reactor Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taro Ueki

    2008-01-01

    A robust multivariate time series method has been established for the Monte Carlo calculation of neutron multiplication problems. The method is termed Coarse Mesh Projection Method (CMPM) and can be implemented using the coarse statistical bins for acquisition of nuclear fission source data. A novel aspect of CMPM is the combination of the general technical principle of projection pursuit in the signal processing discipline and the neutron multiplication eigenvalue problem in the nuclear engineering discipline. CMPM enables reactor physicists to accurately evaluate major eigenvalue separations of nuclear reactors with continuous energy Monte Carlo calculation. CMPM was incorporated in the MCNP Monte Carlo particle transport code of Los Alamos National Laboratory. The great advantage of CMPM over the traditional Fission Matrix method is demonstrated for the three space-dimensional modeling of the initial core of a pressurized water reactor

  1. The Costs of Online Learning. Creating Sound Policy for Digital Learning: A Working Paper Series from the Thomas B. Fordham Institute

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battaglino, Tamara Butler; Haldeman, Matt; Laurans, Eleanor

    2012-01-01

    The latest installment of the Fordham Institute's "Creating Sound Policy for Digital Learning" series investigates one of the more controversial aspects of digital learning: How much does it cost? In this paper, the Parthenon Group uses interviews with more than fifty vendors and online-schooling experts to estimate today's average…

  2. Legalization of Educational Public Policies: Analysis of Controversial Issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Urá Lobato Martins

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a critical analysis of the issue of legalization of public policies that deal with the right to education. Therefore, the literature review will be made, as well as an analysis of some precedents of the Supreme Court on the issue of legalization of this fundamental right. At the end, it will be shown that the right to education generates citizens the subjective rights of audience immediately, the effectiveness of this right.

  3. Biological Time Series Analysis Using a Context Free Language: Applicability to Pulsatile Hormone Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Dennis A.; Adler, Gail K.; Nguyen, David P.; Klerman, Elizabeth B.

    2014-01-01

    We present a novel approach for analyzing biological time-series data using a context-free language (CFL) representation that allows the extraction and quantification of important features from the time-series. This representation results in Hierarchically AdaPtive (HAP) analysis, a suite of multiple complementary techniques that enable rapid analysis of data and does not require the user to set parameters. HAP analysis generates hierarchically organized parameter distributions that allow multi-scale components of the time-series to be quantified and includes a data analysis pipeline that applies recursive analyses to generate hierarchically organized results that extend traditional outcome measures such as pharmacokinetics and inter-pulse interval. Pulsicons, a novel text-based time-series representation also derived from the CFL approach, are introduced as an objective qualitative comparison nomenclature. We apply HAP to the analysis of 24 hours of frequently sampled pulsatile cortisol hormone data, which has known analysis challenges, from 14 healthy women. HAP analysis generated results in seconds and produced dozens of figures for each participant. The results quantify the observed qualitative features of cortisol data as a series of pulse clusters, each consisting of one or more embedded pulses, and identify two ultradian phenotypes in this dataset. HAP analysis is designed to be robust to individual differences and to missing data and may be applied to other pulsatile hormones. Future work can extend HAP analysis to other time-series data types, including oscillatory and other periodic physiological signals. PMID:25184442

  4. time-series analysis of nigeria rice supply and demand: error ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    O. Ojogho Ph.D

    The study examined a time-series analysis of Nigeria rice supply and demand with a view to determining any long-run equilibrium between them using the Error Correction Model approach (ECM). The data used for the study represents the annual series of 1960-2007 (47 years) for rice supply and demand in Nigeria, ...

  5. Modeling BAS Dysregulation in Bipolar Disorder : Illustrating the Potential of Time Series Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hamaker, Ellen L.; Grasman, Raoul P P P; Kamphuis, Jan Henk

    2016-01-01

    Time series analysis is a technique that can be used to analyze the data from a single subject and has great potential to investigate clinically relevant processes like affect regulation. This article uses time series models to investigate the assumed dysregulation of affect that is associated with

  6. Time-series analysis of Nigeria rice supply and demand: Error ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study examined a time-series analysis of Nigeria rice supply and demand with a view to determining any long-run equilibrium between them using the Error Correction Model approach (ECM). The data used for the study represents the annual series of 1960-2007 (47 years) for rice supply and demand in Nigeria, ...

  7. Social implications of the Human Genome Project: Policy roundtable series and journals. Final progress report, March 15, 2001 - March 15, 2002

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seiguer, Erica

    2002-12-30

    This report reflects the activities of the Harvard Health Caucus at Harvard Medical School that were supported, in part, by the Department of Energy. The following policy roundtables and panels were held: Spring 2001 Policy Roundtable Series: The social implications of the Human Genome Project; Spring 2002 Policy Roundtable Series: Managing globalization to improve health; 13 February 2002 Keynote Address: The globalization of health; 25 February 2002 Healthier or Wealthier: Which comes first in the new global era?; 28 February 2002 The crisis of neglected diseases: Creating R&D incentives for diseases of developing countries; 7 March 2002 Health care education in the developing world: Bridging global and local health care practices; 20 March 2002 Building a legal framework for global health: How can the US and UN work to reduce global disparities?; 25 April 2002 The role of mass media and tobacco control efforts. Caucus organizational information is also included.

  8. Welfare reform at 15 and the state of policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimpare, Stephen

    2013-01-01

    This article offers a review of welfare reform evaluation studies, summarizing research that has generated a consensus among mainstream policy analysts that the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (PRWORA) has had few effects beyond caseload reductions and increases in employment. Given that supporters and opponents alike expected the law to have profound consequences, the article considers two ways to explain this surprising outcome, showing that (1) quantitative policy analysis has been ill equipped to capture the PRWORA's effects and (2) expectations were nonetheless wrong because they failed to appreciate how thoroughly Aid to Families with Dependent Children had already been eroded in the decades prior to its reform. Welfare reform was not the beginning of a process of policy change; it was the end of one. In response to these findings, the article describes how a more critical perspective on reform matters for social work researchers, advocates, and practitioners.

  9. The history of NATO TNF policy: The role of studies, analysis and exercises conference proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rinne, R.L.

    1994-02-01

    This conference was organized to study and analyze the role of simulation, analysis, modeling, and exercises in the history of NATO policy. The premise was not that the results of past studies will apply to future policy, but rather that understanding what influenced the decision process -- and how -- would be of value. The structure of the conference was built around discussion panels. The panels were augmented by a series of papers and presentations focusing on particular TNF events, issues, studies, or exercises. The conference proceedings consist of three volumes. Volume 1 contains the conference introduction, agenda, biographical sketches of principal participants, and analytical summary of the presentations and panels. This volume contains a short introduction and the papers and presentations from the conference. Volume 3 contains selected papers by Brig. Gen. Robert C. Richardson III (Ret.). Individual papers in this volume were abstracted and indexed for the database

  10. An analysis of policy success and failure in formal evaluations of Australia's national mental health strategy (1992-2012).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, Francesca C; Meurk, Carla S; Head, Brian W; Hall, Wayne D; Harris, Meredith G; Whiteford, Harvey A

    2017-05-30

    Heightened fiscal constraints, increases in the chronic disease burden and in consumer expectations are among several factors contributing to the global interest in evidence-informed health policy. The present article builds on previous work that explored how the Australian Federal Government applied five instruments of policy, or policy levers, to implement a series of reforms under the Australian National Mental Health Strategy (NMHS). The present article draws on theoretical insights from political science to analyse the relative successes and failures of these levers, as portrayed in formal government evaluations of the NMHS. Documentary analysis of six evaluation documents corresponding to three National Mental Health Plans was undertaken. Both the content and approach of these government-funded, independently conducted evaluations were appraised. An overall improvement was apparent in the development and application of policy levers over time. However, this finding should be interpreted with caution due to variations in evaluation approach according to Plan and policy lever. Tabulated summaries of the success and failure of each policy initiative, ordered by lever type, are provided to establish a resource that could be consulted for future policy-making. This analysis highlights the complexities of health service reform and underscores the limitations of narrowly focused empirical approaches. A theoretical framework is provided that could inform the evaluation and targeted selection of appropriate policy levers in mental health.

  11. The Timeseries Toolbox - A Web Application to Enable Accessible, Reproducible Time Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veatch, W.; Friedman, D.; Baker, B.; Mueller, C.

    2017-12-01

    The vast majority of data analyzed by climate researchers are repeated observations of physical process or time series data. This data lends itself of a common set of statistical techniques and models designed to determine trends and variability (e.g., seasonality) of these repeated observations. Often, these same techniques and models can be applied to a wide variety of different time series data. The Timeseries Toolbox is a web application designed to standardize and streamline these common approaches to time series analysis and modeling with particular attention to hydrologic time series used in climate preparedness and resilience planning and design by the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers. The application performs much of the pre-processing of time series data necessary for more complex techniques (e.g. interpolation, aggregation). With this tool, users can upload any dataset that conforms to a standard template and immediately begin applying these techniques to analyze their time series data.

  12. State Clean Energy Policies Analysis (SCEPA): State Tax Incentives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, E.; Doris, E.

    2009-10-01

    As a policy tool, state tax incentives can be structured to help states meet clean energy goals. Policymakers often use state tax incentives in concert with state and federal policies to support renewable energy deployment or reduce market barriers. This analysis used case studies of four states to assess the contributions of state tax incentives to the development of renewable energy markets. State tax incentives that are appropriately paired with complementary state and federal policies generally provide viable mechanisms to support renewable energy deployment. However, challenges to successful implementation of state tax incentives include serving project owners with limited state tax liability, assessing appropriate incentive levels, and differentiating levels of incentives for technologies with different costs. Additionally, state tax incentives may result in moderately higher federal tax burdens. These challenges notwithstanding, state tax incentives that consider certain policy design characteristics can support renewable energy markets and state clean energy goals.The scale of their impact though is directly related to the degree to which they support the renewable energy markets for targeted sectors and technologies. This report highlights important policy design considerations for policymakers using state tax incentives to meet clean energy goals.

  13. A novel water quality data analysis framework based on time-series data mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Weihui; Wang, Guoyin

    2017-07-01

    The rapid development of time-series data mining provides an emerging method for water resource management research. In this paper, based on the time-series data mining methodology, we propose a novel and general analysis framework for water quality time-series data. It consists of two parts: implementation components and common tasks of time-series data mining in water quality data. In the first part, we propose to granulate the time series into several two-dimensional normal clouds and calculate the similarities in the granulated level. On the basis of the similarity matrix, the similarity search, anomaly detection, and pattern discovery tasks in the water quality time-series instance dataset can be easily implemented in the second part. We present a case study of this analysis framework on weekly Dissolve Oxygen time-series data collected from five monitoring stations on the upper reaches of Yangtze River, China. It discovered the relationship of water quality in the mainstream and tributary as well as the main changing patterns of DO. The experimental results show that the proposed analysis framework is a feasible and efficient method to mine the hidden and valuable knowledge from water quality historical time-series data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Time-series analysis of red giant stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stello, D.

    2006-08-01

    mode-lifetime stays roughly the same). This implies that the number of coherent oscillation periods that we can observe will be low for evolved stars, which ultimately limits the precision by which we can determine their frequencies. However, this result needs confirmation from additional observations of either the same star with more continuous data coverage or, preferably, of many red giant stars. (5) We obtained photometric time series of the open cluster M67 during a multi-site campaign lasting 43 days. The nine telescopes (0.6-2.1 metre) collected in total 560 hours of time series of the cluster. On the best nights the noise was limited by irreducible terms (scintillation and photon noise), and reached down to 0.5 mmag per minute of integration. (6) Our photometric observations of 20 red giant stars in the open cluster M67 showed excess power in the Fourier spectra consistent with solar-like oscillations. The location of the excess power of three different groups of stars (grouped according to their luminosity) matched with expectations. In three stars, the excess power was more or less in agreement with the expected amplitudes based on L/M-scaling. Simulations further supported that a significant part of the excess seen at low frequencies could be of stellar origin for most target stars. It was not possible to obtain unambiguous detection of a characteristic frequency separation. The signal-to-noise and lack of a clear frequency pattern did not support further extraction of individual peaks. The limitations of this data set was mainly due to the apparent presence of significant non-white noise, which however, could not be quantified or separated clearly from the stellar signal.

  15. Nonlinear time series analysis of normal and pathological human walking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dingwell, Jonathan B.; Cusumano, Joseph P.

    2000-12-01

    Characterizing locomotor dynamics is essential for understanding the neuromuscular control of locomotion. In particular, quantifying dynamic stability during walking is important for assessing people who have a greater risk of falling. However, traditional biomechanical methods of defining stability have not quantified the resistance of the neuromuscular system to perturbations, suggesting that more precise definitions are required. For the present study, average maximum finite-time Lyapunov exponents were estimated to quantify the local dynamic stability of human walking kinematics. Local scaling exponents, defined as the local slopes of the correlation sum curves, were also calculated to quantify the local scaling structure of each embedded time series. Comparisons were made between overground and motorized treadmill walking in young healthy subjects and between diabetic neuropathic (NP) patients and healthy controls (CO) during overground walking. A modification of the method of surrogate data was developed to examine the stochastic nature of the fluctuations overlying the nominally periodic patterns in these data sets. Results demonstrated that having subjects walk on a motorized treadmill artificially stabilized their natural locomotor kinematics by small but statistically significant amounts. Furthermore, a paradox previously present in the biomechanical literature that resulted from mistakenly equating variability with dynamic stability was resolved. By slowing their self-selected walking speeds, NP patients adopted more locally stable gait patterns, even though they simultaneously exhibited greater kinematic variability than CO subjects. Additionally, the loss of peripheral sensation in NP patients was associated with statistically significant differences in the local scaling structure of their walking kinematics at those length scales where it was anticipated that sensory feedback would play the greatest role. Lastly, stride-to-stride fluctuations in the

  16. Time series analysis of diverse extreme phenomena: universal features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eftaxias, K.; Balasis, G.

    2012-04-01

    The field of study of complex systems holds that the dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that may used to describe a great variety of scientific and technological approaches of different types of natural, artificial, and social systems. We suggest that earthquake, epileptic seizures, solar flares, and magnetic storms dynamics can be analyzed within similar mathematical frameworks. A central property of aforementioned extreme events generation is the occurrence of coherent large-scale collective behavior with very rich structure, resulting from repeated nonlinear interactions among the corresponding constituents. Consequently, we apply the Tsallis nonextensive statistical mechanics as it proves an appropriate framework in order to investigate universal principles of their generation. First, we examine the data in terms of Tsallis entropy aiming to discover common "pathological" symptoms of transition to a significant shock. By monitoring the temporal evolution of the degree of organization in time series we observe similar distinctive features revealing significant reduction of complexity during their emergence. Second, a model for earthquake dynamics coming from a nonextensive Tsallis formalism, starting from first principles, has been recently introduced. This approach leads to an energy distribution function (Gutenberg-Richter type law) for the magnitude distribution of earthquakes, providing an excellent fit to seismicities generated in various large geographic areas usually identified as seismic regions. We show that this function is able to describe the energy distribution (with similar non-extensive q-parameter) of solar flares, magnetic storms, epileptic and earthquake shocks. The above mentioned evidence of a universal statistical behavior suggests the possibility of a common approach for studying space weather, earthquakes and epileptic seizures.

  17. Innovating patient care delivery: DSRIP's interrupted time series analysis paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenoy, Amrita G; Begley, Charles E; Revere, Lee; Linder, Stephen H; Daiger, Stephen P

    2017-12-07

    Adoption of Medicaid Section 1115 waiver is one of the many ways of innovating healthcare delivery system. The Delivery System Reform Incentive Payment (DSRIP) pool, one of the two funding pools of the waiver has four categories viz. infrastructure development, program innovation and redesign, quality improvement reporting and lastly, bringing about population health improvement. A metric of the fourth category, preventable hospitalization (PH) rate was analyzed in the context of eight conditions for two time periods, pre-reporting years (2010-2012) and post-reporting years (2013-2015) for two hospital cohorts, DSRIP participating and non-participating hospitals. The study explains how DSRIP impacted Preventable Hospitalization (PH) rates of eight conditions for both hospital cohorts within two time periods. Eight PH rates were regressed as the dependent variable with time, intervention and post-DSRIP Intervention as independent variables. PH rates of eight conditions were then consolidated into one rate for regressing with the above independent variables to evaluate overall impact of DSRIP. An interrupted time series regression was performed after accounting for auto-correlation, stationarity and seasonality in the dataset. In the individual regression model, PH rates showed statistically significant coefficients for seven out of eight conditions in DSRIP participating hospitals. In the combined regression model, the coefficient of the PH rate showed a statistically significant decrease with negative p-values for regression coefficients in DSRIP participating hospitals compared to positive/increased p-values for regression coefficients in DSRIP non-participating hospitals. Several macro- and micro-level factors may have likely contributed DSRIP hospitals outperforming DSRIP non-participating hospitals. Healthcare organization/provider collaboration, support from healthcare professionals, DSRIP's design, state reimbursement and coordination in care delivery methods

  18. Cerebral Venous-Sinus Thrombosis: A Case Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nahid Ashjazadeh

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Cerebral venous-sinus thrombosis is an uncommon form but important cause of stroke, especially in young-aged women. Methods: We performed a retrospective descriptive-analytical study in which 124 patients with cerebral venous-sinus thrombosis, who referred to Nemazee Hospital, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences from January 2000 to March 2008, were included, and their demographic, etiologic, radiological and prognostic characteristics were evaluated. Results: The patients' mean age was 34.01±10.25. Eighty seven (70.16% were women and 37 (29.83% were men. The most frequent clinical manifestations were headache, papilledema and seizures. Fifty seven (65.51% women took oral contraceptive pills. Twenty of 57 women (35.08% took the pill longer than one month to be able to fast in Ramadan or perform the Hajj ceremonies. In the mean time they developed cerebral venous-sinus thrombosis. Superior sagital sinus, with or without lateral sinuses, was the most involved area (70.96%. High mortality and morbidity rates (14.51% and 35.48%, respectively were found in patients. Poor prognostic factors at the time of admission were stupor and coma (P=0.001 and evidence of hemorrhage in primary CT scan (P=0.005. Conclusion: Taking oral contraceptive pills was a main factor associated with cerebral venous-sinus thrombosis. Clinical manifestations, prognostic factors, common involved sinuses and image findings of this study were similar to those of other studies. Health care policy makers should design a plan to warn susceptible women of the risk of cerebral venous-sinus thrombosis, and to educate them the ways to prevent it

  19. Real analysis series, functions of several variables, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Laczkovich, Miklós

    2017-01-01

    This book develops the theory of multivariable analysis, building on the single variable foundations established in the companion volume, Real Analysis: Foundations and Functions of One Variable. Together, these volumes form the first English edition of the popular Hungarian original, Valós Analízis I & II, based on courses taught by the authors at Eötvös Loránd University, Hungary, for more than 30 years. Numerous exercises are included throughout, offering ample opportunities to master topics by progressing from routine to difficult problems. Hints or solutions to many of the more challenging exercises make this book ideal for independent study, or further reading. Intended as a sequel to a course in single variable analysis, this book builds upon and expands these ideas into higher dimensions. The modular organization makes this text adaptable for either a semester or year-long introductory course. Topics include: differentiation and integration of functions of several variables; infinite numerica...

  20. Establishment of a Policy Analysis Capability in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carole M.P. NEVES

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The Romanian government, like other governments of former communist countries, emerged from the collapsed Soviet Union ill prepared to confront the complex challenges of governing under a democratic, free market system. At the core of governments that formulate sound public policies, successfully implement programs, and respond effectively to rapidly changing situations is the capacity to carry out independent, high quality research and analysis that results in improved decision making. During the 21st century, the need and acceptance of the incorporation of policy analysis courses in public administration curricula in Romania is expected to grow. In time, educational programs are expected to result in the following consequences: _ Formation of a body of strong independent policy researchers employed by the national and local governments as well as by universities and non-profit institutions _ Utilization of analytical outcomes as tools of political, social and economic improvement by the executive, legislative and judicial branches and by non-profit and private sectors _ Greater public understanding of and participation in public policy processes.

  1. Economic analysis requirements in support of orbital debris regulatory policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Joel S.

    1996-10-01

    As the number of Earth orbiting objects increases so does the potential for generating orbital debris with the consequent increase in the likelihood of impacting and damaging operating satellites. Various debris remediation approaches are being considered that encompass both in-orbit and return-to-Earth schema and have varying degrees of operations, cost, international competitiveness, and safety implications. Because of the diversity of issues, concerns and long-term impacts, there is a clear need for the setting of government policies that will lead to an orderly abatement of the potential orbital debris hazards. These policies may require the establishment of a supportive regulatory regime. The Department of Transportation is likely to have regulatory responsibilities relating to orbital debris stemming from its charge to protect the public health and safety, safety of property, and national security interests and foreign policy interests of the United States. This paper describes DOT's potential regulatory role relating to orbital debris remediation, the myriad of issues concerning the need for establishing government policies relating to orbital debris remediation and their regulatory implications, the proposed technological solutions and their economic and safety implications. Particular emphasis is placed upon addressing cost-effectiveness and economic analyses as they relate to economic impact analysis in support of regulatory impact analysis.

  2. Assumptions and Policy Decisions for Vital Area Identification Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Myungsu; Bae, Yeon-Kyoung; Lee, Youngseung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and IAEA guidance indicate that certain assumptions and policy questions should be addressed to a Vital Area Identification (VAI) process. Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power conducted a VAI based on current Design Basis Threat and engineering judgement to identify APR1400 vital areas. Some of the assumptions were inherited from Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) as a sabotage logic model was based on PSA logic tree and equipment location data. This paper illustrates some important assumptions and policy decisions for APR1400 VAI analysis. Assumptions and policy decisions could be overlooked at the beginning stage of VAI, however they should be carefully reviewed and discussed among engineers, plant operators, and regulators. Through APR1400 VAI process, some of the policy concerns and assumptions for analysis were applied based on document research and expert panel discussions. It was also found that there are more assumptions to define for further studies for other types of nuclear power plants. One of the assumptions is mission time, which was inherited from PSA.

  3. Analysis of engineering cycles thermodynamics and fluid mechanics series

    CERN Document Server

    Haywood, R W

    1980-01-01

    Analysis of Engineering Cycles, Third Edition, deals principally with an analysis of the overall performance, under design conditions, of work-producing power plants and work-absorbing refrigerating and gas-liquefaction plants, most of which are either cyclic or closely related thereto. The book is organized into two parts, dealing first with simple power and refrigerating plants and then moving on to more complex plants. The principal modifications in this Third Edition arise from the updating and expansion of material on nuclear plants and on combined and binary plants. In view of increased

  4. Analysis of heavy elements by the K serie characteristic X-ray radiation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levenets, V.V.; Kondrat'eva, T.N.; Severin, N.F.; Shchur, A.A.

    1987-01-01

    Possibilities of content analysis in objects of heavy elements by the K-series characteristic X radiation method are studied. The expression for characteristic X radiation yield is shown to be simplified due to relatively high energy of radiation monitored differing from application of the L-series; it permits to carry out analysis by the absolute and simplified relative method. Experimental verification of the expressions obtained is carried out

  5. What will your time series analysis computer package do: computer packages

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pack, D J

    1978-01-01

    A survey of existing time series analysis computer packages is presented. The primary emphasis is on packages relating to the ARIMA model building process and packages that are non-spectral. The survey is segmented into general purpose standard statistical packages (BMDP, IMSL, SAS, SPSS), many method packages, and integrated ARIMA model building packages. Likely new directions are discussed. A number of concerns arise as a result of the survey, relating to the absence of time series capabilities in the standard statistical packages, the definition of an optimal method, the supply of computer packages from the academic to the business environment, and the degree of computerization appropriate for time series analysis.

  6. Estimating Reliability of Disturbances in Satellite Time Series Data Based on Statistical Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Z.-G.; Tang, P.; Zhou, M.

    2016-06-01

    Normally, the status of land cover is inherently dynamic and changing continuously on temporal scale. However, disturbances or abnormal changes of land cover — caused by such as forest fire, flood, deforestation, and plant diseases — occur worldwide at unknown times and locations. Timely detection and characterization of these disturbances is of importance for land cover monitoring. Recently, many time-series-analysis methods have been developed for near real-time or online disturbance detection, using satellite image time series. However, the detection results were only labelled with "Change/ No change" by most of the present methods, while few methods focus on estimating reliability (or confidence level) of the detected disturbances in image time series. To this end, this paper propose a statistical analysis method for estimating reliability of disturbances in new available remote sensing image time series, through analysis of full temporal information laid in time series data. The method consists of three main steps. (1) Segmenting and modelling of historical time series data based on Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST). (2) Forecasting and detecting disturbances in new time series data. (3) Estimating reliability of each detected disturbance using statistical analysis based on Confidence Interval (CI) and Confidence Levels (CL). The method was validated by estimating reliability of disturbance regions caused by a recent severe flooding occurred around the border of Russia and China. Results demonstrated that the method can estimate reliability of disturbances detected in satellite image with estimation error less than 5% and overall accuracy up to 90%.

  7. Quality in environmental science for policy: Assessing uncertainty as a component of policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maxim, Laura; Sluijs, Jeroen P. van der

    2011-01-01

    The sheer number of attempts to define and classify uncertainty reveals an awareness of its importance in environmental science for policy, though the nature of uncertainty is often misunderstood. The interdisciplinary field of uncertainty analysis is unstable; there are currently several incomplete notions of uncertainty leading to different and incompatible uncertainty classifications. One of the most salient shortcomings of present-day practice is that most of these classifications focus on quantifying uncertainty while ignoring the qualitative aspects that tend to be decisive in the interface between science and policy. Consequently, the current practices of uncertainty analysis contribute to increasing the perceived precision of scientific knowledge, but do not adequately address its lack of socio-political relevance. The 'positivistic' uncertainty analysis models (like those that dominate the fields of climate change modelling and nuclear or chemical risk assessment) have little social relevance, as they do not influence negotiations between stakeholders. From the perspective of the science-policy interface, the current practices of uncertainty analysis are incomplete and incorrectly focused. We argue that although scientific knowledge produced and used in a context of political decision-making embodies traditional scientific characteristics, it also holds additional properties linked to its influence on social, political, and economic relations. Therefore, the significance of uncertainty cannot be assessed based on quality criteria that refer to the scientific content only; uncertainty must also include quality criteria specific to the properties and roles of this scientific knowledge within political, social, and economic contexts and processes. We propose a conceptual framework designed to account for such substantive, contextual, and procedural criteria of knowledge quality. At the same time, the proposed framework includes and synthesizes the various

  8. Studying Policy Transfer through the Lens of Social Network Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staunæs, Dorthe; Brøgger, Katja; Steiner-Khamsi, Gita

    Studying Policy Transfer through the Lens of Social Network Analysis The panelists present the findings of a joint empirical research project carried out at Aarhus University (DPU/Copenhagen) and at Teachers College, Columbia University (New York). The research project succeeded to identify...... discursive networks of political stakeholders and policy advisors that were considered key actors in the Danish school reform. The research team investigated how these networks interrelate, change over time, and represent different constituents (government, academe, business), at times contradicting...... or collaborating with each other, respectively. Against the backdrop of globalization studies in comparative education, the research project attempted to identify borrowers, translators, and brokers of educational reform drawing on a complementary set of expertise from social network analysis methodology (Oren...

  9. An Analysis of Reconstituted Fluid Milk Pricing Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Glen D. Whipple

    1983-01-01

    This analysis suggests that alteration of the reconstituted fluid milk pricing provisions of federal and state milk market orders would have a substantial impact on market equilibrium. A reactive programming model of the U.S. milk market was used to simulate the effects of altered reconstituted fluid milk pricing policy. The solutions indicate that reconstituted fluid milk, as a lower cost alternative to fresh fluid milk, would make up a substantial portion of the fluid milk consumption in so...

  10. A Computable OLG Model for Gender and Growth Policy Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Pierre-Richard Agénor

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops a computable Overlapping Generations (OLG) model for gender and growth policy analysis. The model accounts for human and physical capital accumulation (both public and private), intra- and inter-generational health persistence, fertility choices, and women's time allocation between market work, child rearing, and home production. Bargaining between spouses and gender bias, in the form of discrimination in the work place and mothers' time allocation between daughters and so...

  11. Determinants of Egyptian Banking Sector Profitability: Time-Series Analysis from 2004-2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heba Youssef Hashem

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the determinants of banking sector profitability in Egypt to shed light on the most influential variables that have a significant impact on the performance of this vital sector. Design/methodology/approach - The analysis includes a time series model of quarterly data from 2004 to 2014. The model utilizes Cointegration technique to investigate the long-run relationship between the return on equity as a proxy for bank profitability and several bank-specific variables including liquidity, capital adequacy, and percentage of non-performing loans. In addition, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM is utilized to explore the short-run dynamics of the model and the speed of adjustment to reach the long-run equilibrium. Findings - The main findings of this work show that banking sector profitability is inversely related to capital adequacy, the percentage of loan provisions and the ratio of deposits to total assets. On the other hand, it is positively related to the size of the banking sector which implies that the banking sector exhibits economies of scale. Research limitations/implications - The implications of this work is that it helps reveal the major factors affecting bank performance in the short-run and long-run, and hence provide bank managers and monetary policy makers with beneficial insights on how to enhance bank performance. Since the banking sector represents one of the main engines of financing investment, enhancing the efficiency of this sector would contribute to economic growth and prosperity Originality/value - The Vector error correction model showed that about 4% of the disequilibrium is corrected each quarter to reach the long run equilibrium. In addition, all bank specific variables were found to affect profitability in the long-run only. This study would serve as a base that further work on Egyptian banking sector profitability can build on by incorporating more variables in the

  12. Cluster analysis of activity-time series in motor learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balslev, Daniela; Nielsen, Finn Å; Futiger, Sally A

    2002-01-01

    Neuroimaging studies of learning focus on brain areas where the activity changes as a function of time. To circumvent the difficult problem of model selection, we used a data-driven analytic tool, cluster analysis, which extracts representative temporal and spatial patterns from the voxel...... practice-related activity in a fronto-parieto-cerebellar network, in agreement with previous studies of motor learning. These voxels were separated from a group of voxels showing an unspecific time-effect and another group of voxels, whose activation was an artifact from smoothing...

  13. Analysis of Dividend Policy of the Romanian Financial Investment Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta BARBUTA-MISU

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of dividend policy, promoted by a joint-stock company may be: building trust and forming a true business ownership, business growth, increase creditworthiness of the company and of trust others to it. The paper aim is to study the dividend policy to those five Romanian Financial Investment Companies in the period 2006-2012, through a series of specific indicators such as: dividend per share, dividend growth rate, dividend distribution rate, dividend yield, earnings per share, price earnings ratio, in order to reflect the performance and the impact of financial crisis on their performance on the financial market. Tracking the dynamics of these indicators allows us to draw conclusions on the position of the companies on the securities market, and their level influences the decision of shareholders to maintain or withdraw of shares, to invest in other more profitable businesses. Dividend yields made every year by Financial Investment Companies justify the high interest from investors for these shares. Currently, these companies offer a very attractive return for investors compared to the average dividend yield of the Stock Exchange. The evolution of the price earnings ratio shows the normal trend of rise of the companies’ shares in the period 2007-2008, after that they have entered the market at highly undervalued levels especially after declining in 2008.

  14. Green Power voluntary purchases. Price elasticity and policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mewton, Ross T.; Cacho, Oscar J.

    2011-01-01

    Green Power schemes offer electricity from renewable energy sources to customers for a higher price than ordinary electricity. This study examines the demand characteristics of Green Power in Australia and policies which could increase its sales. A sample of 250 pooled time series and cross sectional observations was used to estimate a statistically significant elasticity of demand for Green Power with respect to price of -0.96 with a 95% confidence interval of ±68%. The wide variation in market penetration between jurisdictions and between countries for Green Power, and the low awareness of Green Power found by surveys indicate that Green Power sales could be increased by appropriate marketing and government policies. The most cost effective means to increase sales was found to be advertising campaigns although only one Australian example was found, in the state of Victoria in 2005. It was also found that full tax deductibility of the Green Power premium to residential customers, exemption from the Goods and Services Tax and a tax rebate for Green Power are all probably less cost effective for promoting sales than direct government purchase of Green Power, in terms of cost per unit of increased sales. (author)

  15. Policy Adoption of Forest Management Unit: A Knowledge Diffusion Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julijanti Julijanti

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Within the policy adoption process of Forest Management Unit (FMU concept, there has been disagreement of stakeholders on FMUs concept. This disagreement is caused by the exchange of knowledge, information, and perception among stakeholders involved. The results of these interactions could speed up, slow down, and prevent the adoption process of FMU policy. The study objective was analyzing process of knowledge diffusion of FMUs development policy and stakeholders interaction in PFMU Batutegi and PFMU Kotaagung Utara, Indonesia. Adoption process was analyzed by the logical diffusion technique based on knowledge time of FMUs concept received and its interaction space. Social interaction among stakeholders was analyzed using method developed by International Development Studies analysis, i.e. interaction among discourse/narrative, actors/networks and politics/interests. The results showed that knowledge diffusion of FMUs concept in both PFMU tends to cascade diffusion. Factors was affecting of it process were network, role of opinion leaders, willingness to know, and understand on FMUs concept. Indicative strategy is needed as anticipating and overcoming an obstacle in its internalization process, i.e. harmonization of legislative and executive relationship, building an opinion the importance of FMU, and optimalizing network for bureaucratic problems. Keywords: Forest Management Unit, knowledge diffusion, network, policy adoption

  16. Policies for Reintegrating Crop and Livestock Systems: A Comparative Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachael D. Garrett

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The reintegration of crop and livestock systems within the same land area has the potential to improve soil quality and reduce water and air pollution, while maintaining high yields and reducing risk. In this study, we characterize the degree to which federal policies in three major global food production regions that span a range of socioeconomic contexts, Brazil, New Zealand, and the United States, incentivize or disincentivize the use of integrated crop and livestock practices (ICLS. Our analysis indicates that Brazil and New Zealand have the most favorable policy environment for ICLS, while the United States provides the least favorable environment. The balance of policy incentives and disincentives across our three cases studies mirrors current patterns of ICLS usage. Brazil and New Zealand have both undergone a trend toward mixed crop livestock systems in recent years, while the United States has transitioned rapidly toward continuous crop and livestock production. If transitions to ICLS are desired, particularly in the United States, it will be necessary to change agricultural, trade, environmental, biofuels, and food safety policies that currently buffer farmers from risk, provide too few incentives for pollution reduction, and restrict the presence of animals in crop areas. It will also be necessary to invest more in research and development in all countries to identify the most profitable ICLS technologies in each region.

  17. Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis on gold, crude oil and foreign exchange rate time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Mayukha; Madhusudana Rao, P.; Manimaran, P.

    2014-12-01

    We apply the recently developed multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis method to investigate the cross-correlation behavior and fractal nature between two non-stationary time series. We analyze the daily return price of gold, West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil, foreign exchange rate data, over a period of 18 years. The cross correlation has been measured from the Hurst scaling exponents and the singularity spectrum quantitatively. From the results, the existence of multifractal cross-correlation between all of these time series is found. We also found that the cross correlation between gold and oil prices possess uncorrelated behavior and the remaining bivariate time series possess persistent behavior. It was observed for five bivariate series that the cross-correlation exponents are less than the calculated average generalized Hurst exponents (GHE) for q0 and for one bivariate series the cross-correlation exponent is greater than GHE for all q values.

  18. A Reception Analysis on the Youth Audiences of TV Series in Marivan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omid Karimi

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to describe the role of foreign media as the agitators of popular culture. For that with reception analysis it’s pay to describe decoding of youth audiences about this series. Globalization theory and Reception in Communication theory are formed the theoretical system of current article. The methodology in this research is qualitative one, and two techniques as in-depth interview and observation are used for data collection. The results show different people based on individual features, social and cultural backgrounds have inclination toward special characters and identify with them. This inclination so far the audience fallow the series because of his/her favorite character. Also there is a great compatibility between audience backgrounds and their receptions. A number of audience have criticized the series and point out the negative consequences on its society. However, seeing the series continue; really they prefer watching series enjoying to risks of it.

  19. Multichannel biomedical time series clustering via hierarchical probabilistic latent semantic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jin; Sun, Xiangping; Nahavandi, Saeid; Kouzani, Abbas; Wu, Yuchuan; She, Mary

    2014-11-01

    Biomedical time series clustering that automatically groups a collection of time series according to their internal similarity is of importance for medical record management and inspection such as bio-signals archiving and retrieval. In this paper, a novel framework that automatically groups a set of unlabelled multichannel biomedical time series according to their internal structural similarity is proposed. Specifically, we treat a multichannel biomedical time series as a document and extract local segments from the time series as words. We extend a topic model, i.e., the Hierarchical probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (H-pLSA), which was originally developed for visual motion analysis to cluster a set of unlabelled multichannel time series. The H-pLSA models each channel of the multichannel time series using a local pLSA in the first layer. The topics learned in the local pLSA are then fed to a global pLSA in the second layer to discover the categories of multichannel time series. Experiments on a dataset extracted from multichannel Electrocardiography (ECG) signals demonstrate that the proposed method performs better than previous state-of-the-art approaches and is relatively robust to the variations of parameters including length of local segments and dictionary size. Although the experimental evaluation used the multichannel ECG signals in a biometric scenario, the proposed algorithm is a universal framework for multichannel biomedical time series clustering according to their structural similarity, which has many applications in biomedical time series management. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Cerebral venous sinus thrombosis on MRI: A case series analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjay M Khaladkar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST is a rare form of stroke seen in young and middle aged group, especially in women due to thrombus of dural venous sinuses and can cause acute neurological deterioration with increased morbidity and mortality if not diagnosed in early stage. Neurological deficit occurs due to focal or diffuse cerebral edema and venous non-hemorrhagic or hemorrhagic infarct. Aim and Objectives: To assess/evaluate the role of Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI and Magnetic Resonance Venography (MRV as an imaging modality for early diagnosis of CVST and to study patterns of venous thrombosis, in detecting changes in brain parenchyma and residual effects of CVST using MRI. Materials and Methods: Retrospective descriptive analysis of 40 patients of CVST diagnosed on MRI brain and MRV was done. Results: 29/40 (72.5% were males and 11/40 (27.5% were females. Most of the patients were in the age group of 21-40 years (23/40-57.5%. Most of the patients 16/40 (40% presented within 7 days. No definite cause of CVST was found in 24 (60% patients in spite of detailed history. In 36/40 (90% of cases major sinuses were involved, deep venous system were involved in 7/40 (17.5% cases, superficial cortical vein was involved in 1/40 (2.5% cases. Analysis of stage of thrombus (acute, subacute, chronic was done based on its appearance on T1 and T2WI. 31/40 (77.5% patients showed complete absence of flow on MRV, while 9/40 (22.5% cases showed partial flow on MR venogram. Brain parenchyma was normal in 20/40 (50% patients while 6/40 (15% cases had non-hemorrhagic infarct and 14/40 (35% patients presented with hemorrhagic infarct. Conclusion: Our study concluded that MRI brain with MRV is sensitive in diagnosing both direct signs (evidence of thrombus inside the affected veins and indirect signs (parenchymal changes of CVST and their follow up.

  1. Chaos in Electronic Circuits: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wheat, Jr., Robert M. [Kennedy Western Univ., Cheyenne, WY (United States)

    2003-07-01

    Chaos in electronic circuits is a phenomenon that has been largely ignored by engineers, manufacturers, and researchers until the early 1990’s and the work of Chua, Matsumoto, and others. As the world becomes more dependent on electronic devices, the detrimental effects of non-normal operation of these devices becomes more significant. Developing a better understanding of the mechanisms involved in the chaotic behavior of electronic circuits is a logical step toward the prediction and prevention of any potentially catastrophic occurrence of this phenomenon. Also, a better understanding of chaotic behavior, in a general sense, could potentially lead to better accuracy in the prediction of natural events such as weather, volcanic activity, and earthquakes. As a first step in this improvement of understanding, and as part of the research being reported here, methods of computer modeling, identifying and analyzing, and producing chaotic behavior in simple electronic circuits have been developed. The computer models were developed using both the Alternative Transient Program (ATP) and Spice, the analysis techniques have been implemented using the C and C++ programming languages, and the chaotically behaving circuits developed using “off the shelf” electronic components.

  2. Performance analysis of SHE-PWM using Fourier Series and Newton-Raphson analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lada, M. Y.; Khiar, M. S. A.; Ghani, S. A.; Nawawi, M. R. M.; Nor, A. S. M.; Yuen, J. G. M.

    2015-05-01

    The performance of inverter has become a vital role in contributing effective power system nowadays. However the major issue that will reduce the inverter performance is the harmonic distortions that contribute to power losses. Thus, there are a variety of controls techniques have been implemented for inverters switching such as square wave, SHE-PWM, unipolar and bipolar. The square wave type inverter produces output voltage in square shape which has simple logic control and power switches. Next, unipolar and bipolar techniques are using comparator to compare the reference voltage waveform with the triangular waveform. The difference between unipolar and bipolar is there are two reference signals which are compared with the triangular waveform for unipolar switching. On the other hand, bipolar switching compares triangular waveform with a reference signal. Selective Harmonic Elimination Pulse-Width Modulation (SHE-PWM) is another control technique for inverters. This research propose SHE-PWM as a low switching frequency strategy that uses Fourier Series and Newton-Raphson analysis to calculate the switching angles for elimination of harmonic distortion. Fourier Series is used to determine the amplitude of any odd harmonic in the output signal whereas Newton-Raphson is used to solve the equation for finding switching angles. As a result, SHE-PWM can select the low frequency harmonic components need to be eliminated and reduce the harmonic distortion. It also prevents the harmonic distortion that sensitive to the inverter performance

  3. Simultaneous determination of radionuclides separable into natural decay series by use of time-interval analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashimoto, Tetsuo; Sanada, Yukihisa; Uezu, Yasuhiro

    2004-01-01

    A delayed coincidence method, time-interval analysis (TIA), has been applied to successive α-α decay events on the millisecond time-scale. Such decay events are part of the 220 Rn→ 216 Po (T 1/2 145 ms) (Th-series) and 219 Rn→ 215 Po (T 1/2 1.78 ms) (Ac-series). By using TIA in addition to measurement of 226 Ra (U-series) from α-spectrometry by liquid scintillation counting (LSC), two natural decay series could be identified and separated. The TIA detection efficiency was improved by using the pulse-shape discrimination technique (PSD) to reject β-pulses, by solvent extraction of Ra combined with simple chemical separation, and by purging the scintillation solution with dry N 2 gas. The U- and Th-series together with the Ac-series were determined, respectively, from alpha spectra and TIA carried out immediately after Ra-extraction. Using the 221 Fr→ 217 At (T 1/2 32.3 ms) decay process as a tracer, overall yields were estimated from application of TIA to the 225 Ra (Np-decay series) at the time of maximum growth. The present method has proven useful for simultaneous determination of three radioactive decay series in environmental samples. (orig.)

  4. Spatially adaptive mixture modeling for analysis of FMRI time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, Thomas; Risser, Laurent; Ciuciu, Philippe

    2010-04-01

    Within-subject analysis in fMRI essentially addresses two problems, the detection of brain regions eliciting evoked activity and the estimation of the underlying dynamics. In Makni et aL, 2005 and Makni et aL, 2008, a detection-estimation framework has been proposed to tackle these problems jointly, since they are connected to one another. In the Bayesian formalism, detection is achieved by modeling activating and nonactivating voxels through independent mixture models (IMM) within each region while hemodynamic response estimation is performed at a regional scale in a nonparametric way. Instead of IMMs, in this paper we take advantage of spatial mixture models (SMM) for their nonlinear spatial regularizing properties. The proposed method is unsupervised and spatially adaptive in the sense that the amount of spatial correlation is automatically tuned from the data and this setting automatically varies across brain regions. In addition, the level of regularization is specific to each experimental condition since both the signal-to-noise ratio and the activation pattern may vary across stimulus types in a given brain region. These aspects require the precise estimation of multiple partition functions of underlying Ising fields. This is addressed efficiently using first path sampling for a small subset of fields and then using a recently developed fast extrapolation technique for the large remaining set. Simulation results emphasize that detection relying on supervised SMM outperforms its IMM counterpart and that unsupervised spatial mixture models achieve similar results without any hand-tuning of the correlation parameter. On real datasets, the gain is illustrated in a localizer fMRI experiment: brain activations appear more spatially resolved using SMM in comparison with classical general linear model (GLM)-based approaches, while estimating a specific parcel-based HRF shape. Our approach therefore validates the treatment of unsmoothed fMRI data without fixed GLM

  5. Dynamic analysis of policy drivers for bioenergy commodity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeffers, Robert F.; Jacobson, Jacob J.; Searcy, Erin M.

    2013-01-01

    Biomass is increasingly being considered as a feedstock to provide a clean and renewable source of energy in the form of both liquid fuels and electric power. In the United States, the biofuels and biopower industries are regulated by different policies and have different drivers, which impact the maximum price the industries are willing to pay for biomass. This article describes a dynamic computer simulation model that analyzes future behavior of bioenergy feedstock markets given policy and technical options. The model simulates the long-term dynamics of these markets by treating advanced biomass feedstocks as a commodity and projecting the total demand of each industry, as well as the market price over time. The model is used for an analysis of the United States bioenergy feedstock market that projects supply, demand, and market price given three independent buyers: domestic biopower, domestic biofuels, and foreign exports. With base-case assumptions, the biofuels industry is able to dominate the market and meet the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) targets for advanced biofuels. Further analyses suggest that United States bioenergy studies should include estimates of export demand in their projections, and that GHG-limiting policy would partially shield both industries from export dominance. - Highlights: ► We model a United States bioenergy feedstock commodity market. ► Three buyers compete for biomass: biopower, biofuels, and foreign exports. ► The presented methodology improves on dynamic economic equilibrium theory. ► With current policy incentives and ignoring exports, biofuels dominates the market. ► Overseas biomass demand could dominate unless a CO 2 -limiting policy is enacted.

  6. A Potentially Heteroglossic Policy Becomes Monoglossic in Context: An Ethnographic Analysis of Paraguayan Bilingual Education Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortimer, Katherine S.

    2016-01-01

    Ethnographic and discursive approaches to educational language policy (ELP) that explore how policy is appropriated in context are important for understanding policy success/failure in meeting goals of educational equity for language-minoritized students. This study describes how Paraguayan national policy for universal bilingual education…

  7. Analysis of product efficiency of hybrid vehicles and promotion policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Hyundo; Oh, Inha

    2010-01-01

    The key aim of this study is to evaluate the product efficiency of current hybrid vehicles and suggest effective policies to promote hybrid vehicles in the Korean automobile market and development trends of hybrid vehicles. The efficiency levels for car models sold in Korea, including hybrid ones, were measured using the recently developed discrete additive data envelopment analysis (DEA) model that reflects consumer preference. The result of the analysis shows that current hybrid vehicles on the market are still at lower competitive advantage than traditional car models with conventional combustion engines and we can suggest a mix of incentive policies to promote the competitiveness of hybrid vehicles. In addition, we also identify two distinctive trends of hybrid vehicle development: environment-oriented hybrid vehicles and performance-oriented hybrid vehicles. It implies that the government should take account of development trends of hybrid vehicles to achieve the policy goals in designing support schemes and automobile companies that are willing to develop hybrid vehicles can also gain some insights for making strategic decisions. (author)

  8. Time series analysis of wind speed using VAR and the generalized impulse response technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ewing, Bradley T. [Area of Information Systems and Quantitative Sciences, Rawls College of Business and Wind Science and Engineering Research Center, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409-2101 (United States); Kruse, Jamie Brown [Center for Natural Hazard Research, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC (United States); Schroeder, John L. [Department of Geosciences and Wind Science and Engineering Research Center, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX (United States); Smith, Douglas A. [Department of Civil Engineering and Wind Science and Engineering Research Center, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX (United States)

    2007-03-15

    This research examines the interdependence in time series wind speed data measured in the same location at four different heights. A multiple-equation system known as a vector autoregression is proposed for characterizing the time series dynamics of wind. Additionally, the recently developed method of generalized impulse response analysis provides insight into the cross-effects of the wind series and their responses to shocks. Findings are based on analysis of contemporaneous wind speed time histories taken at 13, 33, 70 and 160 ft above ground level with a sampling rate of 10 Hz. The results indicate that wind speeds measured at 70 ft was the most variable. Further, the turbulence persisted longer at the 70-ft measurement than at the other heights. The greatest interdependence is observed at 13 ft. Gusts at 160 ft led to the greatest persistence to an 'own' shock and led to greatest persistence in the responses of the other wind series. (author)

  9. Bioelectric signal classification using a recurrent probabilistic neural network with time-series discriminant component analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, Hideaki; Shima, Keisuke; Shibanoki, Taro; Kurita, Yuichi; Tsuji, Toshio

    2013-01-01

    This paper outlines a probabilistic neural network developed on the basis of time-series discriminant component analysis (TSDCA) that can be used to classify high-dimensional time-series patterns. TSDCA involves the compression of high-dimensional time series into a lower-dimensional space using a set of orthogonal transformations and the calculation of posterior probabilities based on a continuous-density hidden Markov model that incorporates a Gaussian mixture model expressed in the reduced-dimensional space. The analysis can be incorporated into a neural network so that parameters can be obtained appropriately as network coefficients according to backpropagation-through-time-based training algorithm. The network is considered to enable high-accuracy classification of high-dimensional time-series patterns and to reduce the computation time taken for network training. In the experiments conducted during the study, the validity of the proposed network was demonstrated for EEG signals.

  10. Autoimmune diseases and pregnancy: analysis of a series of cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Vânia; Mesquita, Alexandra; Capela, Carlos

    2015-06-04

    An autoimmune disease is characterized by tissue damage, caused by self-reactivity of different effector mechanisms of the immune system, namely antibodies and T cells. All autoimmune diseases, to some extent, have implications for fertility and obstetrics. Currently, due to available treatments and specialised care for pregnant women with autoimmune disease, the prognosis for both mother and child has improved significantly. However these pregnancies are always high risk. The purpose of this study is to analyse the fertility/pregnancy process of women with systemic and organ-specific autoimmune diseases and assess pathological and treatment implications. The authors performed an analysis of the clinical records and relevant obstetric history of five patients representing five distinct autoimmune pathological scenarios, selected from Autoimmune Disease Consultation at the Hospital of Braga, and reviewed the literature. The five clinical cases are the following: Case 1-28 years old with systemic lupus erythematosus, and clinical remission of the disease, under medication with hydroxychloroquine, prednisolone and acetylsalicylic acid, with incomplete miscarriage at 7 weeks of gestation without signs of thrombosis. Case 2-44 years old with history of two late miscarriages, a single preterm delivery (33 weeks) and multiple thrombotic events over the years, was diagnosed with antiphospholipid syndrome after acute myocardial infarction. Case 3-31 years old with polymyositis, treated with azathioprine for 3 years with complete remission of the disease, took the informed decision to get pregnant after medical consultation and full weaning from azathioprine, and gave birth to a healthy term new-born. Case 4-38 years old pregnant woman developed Behcet's syndrome during the final 15 weeks of gestation and with disease exacerbation after delivery. Case 5-36 years old with autoimmune thyroiditis diagnosed during her first pregnancy, with difficult control over the thyroid

  11. Fractal analysis and nonlinear forecasting of indoor 222Rn time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pausch, G.; Bossew, P.; Hofmann, W.; Steger, F.

    1998-01-01

    Fractal analyses of indoor 222 Rn time series were performed using different chaos theory based measurements such as time delay method, Hurst's rescaled range analysis, capacity (fractal) dimension, and Lyapunov exponent. For all time series we calculated only positive Lyapunov exponents which is a hint to chaos, while the Hurst exponents were well below 0.5, indicating antipersistent behaviour (past trends tend to reverse in the future). These time series were also analyzed with a nonlinear prediction method which allowed an estimation of the embedding dimensions with some restrictions, limiting the prediction to about three relative time steps. (orig.)

  12. Development of oral health policy in Nigeria: an analysis of the role of context, actors and policy process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etiaba, Enyi; Uguru, Nkoli; Ebenso, Bassey; Russo, Giuliano; Ezumah, Nkoli; Uzochukwu, Benjamin; Onwujekwe, Obinna

    2015-05-06

    In Nigeria, there is a high burden of oral health diseases, poor coordination of health services and human resources for delivery of oral health services. Previous attempts to develop an Oral Health Policy (OHP) to decrease the oral disease burden failed. However, a policy was eventually developed in November 2012. This paper explores the role of contextual factors, actors and the policy process in the development of the OHP and possible reasons why the current approved OHP succeeded. The study was undertaken across Nigeria; information gathered through document reviews and in-depth interviews with five groups of purposively selected respondents. Analysis of the policy development process was guided by the policy triangle framework, examining context, policy process and actors involved in the policy development. The foremost enabling factor was the yearning among policy actors for a policy, having had four failed attempts. Other factors were the presence of a democratically elected government, a framework for health sector reform instituted by the Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH). The approved OHP went through all stages required for policy development unlike the previous attempts. Three groups of actors played crucial roles in the process, namely academics/researchers, development partners and policy makers. They either had decision making powers or influenced policy through funding or technical ability to generate credible research evidence, all sharing a common interest in developing the OHP. Although evidence was used to inform the development of the policy, the complex interactions between the context and actors facilitated its approval. The OHP development succeeded through a complex inter-relationship of context, process and actors, clearly illustrating that none of these factors could have, in isolation, catalyzed the policy development. Availability of evidence is necessary but not sufficient for developing policies in this area. Wider socio

  13. Social Cost Benefit Analysis for Environmental Policy-Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Zeeuw, A.; In t Veld, R.; Van Soest, D.; Meuleman, L.; Hoogewoning, P.

    2008-01-01

    Review of the theoretical literature and the current debate on the valuation of environmental goods and services, on the discounting of future benefits and costs, and on how social cost benefit analysis (SCBAs) can be integrated in the policy and decision making process. It is concluded that SCBA can be a good decision support method in environmental policy-making if it is transparent and if all impacts are taken into account. Furthermore, the SCBA process should be participative, and politicians must be prepared to take responsibility for the assumptions behind the SCBA, including the assumptions on valuation and on the discount rate. Such a political role makes each SCBA a unique product of a politically responsible actor, and makes it possible for other stakeholders to have calculated an alternative SCBA based on their own assumptions. This Background Study also contains the proceedings of the international SCBA conference organised by RMNO on 16-17 January 2008

  14. Series Solutions of Time-Fractional PDEs by Homotopy Analysis Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Abdulaziz

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The homotopy analysis method (HAM is applied to solve linear and nonlinear fractional partial differential equations (fPDEs. The fractional derivatives are described by Caputo's sense. Series solutions of the fPDEs are obtained. A convergence theorem for the series solution is also given. The test examples, which include a variable coefficient, inhomogeneous and hyperbolic-type equations, demonstrate the capability of HAM for nonlinear fPDEs.

  15. A Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model for Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, R. W.; Hill, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    Although integrated assessments of climate change policy have frequently identified nuclear energy as a promising alternative to fossil fuels, these studies have often treated nuclear waste disposal very simply. Simple assumptions about nuclear waste are problematic because they may not be adequate to capture relevant costs and uncertainties, which could result in suboptimal policy choices. Modeling nuclear waste management costs is a cross-disciplinary, multi-scale problem that involves economic, geologic and environmental processes that operate at vastly different temporal scales. Similarly, the climate-related costs and benefits of nuclear energy are dependent on environmental sensitivity to CO2 emissions and radiation, nuclear energy's ability to offset carbon emissions, and the risk of nuclear accidents, factors which are all deeply uncertain. Alternative value systems further complicate the problem by suggesting different approaches to valuing intergenerational impacts. Effective policy assessment of nuclear energy requires an integrated approach to modeling nuclear waste management that (1) bridges disciplinary and temporal gaps, (2) supports an iterative, adaptive process that responds to evolving understandings of uncertainties, and (3) supports a broad range of value systems. This work develops the Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model (NWMCM). NWMCM provides a flexible framework for evaluating the cost of nuclear waste management across a range of technology pathways and value systems. We illustrate how NWMCM can support policy analysis by estimating how different nuclear waste disposal scenarios developed using the NWMCM framework affect the results of a recent integrated assessment study of alternative energy futures and their effects on the cost of achieving carbon abatement targets. Results suggest that the optimism reflected in previous works is fragile: Plausible nuclear waste management costs and discount rates appropriate for intergenerational cost

  16. Using the Kaldor-Hicks Tableau Format for Cost-Benefit Analysis and Policy Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krutilla, Kerry

    2005-01-01

    This note describes the Kaldor-Hicks (KH) tableau format as a framework for distributional accounting in cost-benefit analysis and policy evaluation. The KH tableau format can serve as a heuristic aid for teaching microeconomics-based policy analysis, and offer insight to policy analysts and decisionmakers beyond conventional efficiency analysis.

  17. Social Analysis in Development Interventions: Policy Artefact or Constructive Transformation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUSANNA PRICE

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Recently attention has focused on the role of social researchers in the processes of construction and transmission of knowledge about global poverty and its reduction. This paper examines some of the formative efforts by pioneering social researchers in development institutions to step into the realm of policy making to construct processes for project preparation and management through social analysis. Before 1970 development planners invoked ‘social' or ‘human' factors only as an excuse to explain away project failures - they designed and implemented development projects in the absence of any strategies or regulatory frameworks for managing their social impacts. Recognizing that project investments represent induced change and constitute a social process in themselves, pioneering social researchers constructed policies and procedures to introduce sociological content and method into the project cycle and so re-order social outcomes. Were such constructs merely policy artefacts? Even as the constructs helped to shift the statements of the development discourse towards ‘people oriented' poverty reduction, new modalities appeared which tested the limits of the agreed methods. Institutions may forget, neglect, contest or re-write the documents if in perceived conflict with the institutional ‘core business'. Yet those pioneering efforts created institutional space for, and understanding of, social analysis, with a measure of flow-on international recognition. Tracking social analysis in several international institutions and in a significant emerging economy, China, this paper highlights not only a history full of lessons to be learned where social analysis is not practiced systematically but also outlines some future challenges.

  18. Mapping Areas for Policy Evaluation: an Analysis of Rural Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MONASTEROLO

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper provides an analysis of the effect of the EU membership on the agricultural and rural counties of Hungary, paying particular attention to the introduction of the CAP and Cohesion Policy. Moving from the mixed case study approach introduced for the evaluation of Rural Development policies, Hungarian rural areas are mapped using multivariate statistical methodologies (principal components analysis and cluster analysis on a set of relevant variables periodically updated and available at a disaggregated level. Comparing the Hungarian rural counties in 2003 and 2007, a divergence between the expected objectives of the EU membership and the actual outcome emerges, with rural areas by far the worse off. Marginalization increased in lagging behind counties, such as Nógrád, confirming the presence of winning and losing regions as a result of the enlargement. Moreover, this study highlights the limits imposed by lacking national statistical sources on the quality of statistical analysis, and on the possibilities to undertake further evaluations of the EU accession experiences.

  19. An Interactive Analysis of Hyperboles in a British TV Series: Implications For EFL Classes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sert, Olcay

    2008-01-01

    This paper, part of an ongoing study on the analysis of hyperboles in a British TV series, reports findings drawing upon a 90,000 word corpus. The findings are compared to the ones from CANCODE (McCarthy and Carter 2004), a five-million word corpus of spontaneous speech, in order to identify similarities between the two. The analysis showed that…

  20. Moving up: applying aggregate level time series analysis in the study of media coverage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliegenthart, R.

    2014-01-01

    In this article the advantages of aggregate level time series analysis for the study of media coverage are discussed. This type of analysis offers the opportunity to answer questions relating to causes and effects of media attention for issues and all kind of other content characteristics. Data that

  1. An Analysis of States' Policies Regarding Social Media Use in Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Janette K.

    2016-01-01

    This policy analysis project focused on states' policies regarding social media use in education. Currently, policies, practices and laws are not keeping pace with the rapidly changing nature of technology. As a result of the quick advancement of social media practices, the need exists for organic policies and practices within the educational…

  2. Planning, climate change, and transportation : thoughts on policy analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    Ideally, policy should be informed by social welfare analyses that carefully assess costs and benefits. In the context of : GHG policies, such analyses face particular challenges. The decades-long span of GHG policy-making will require introduction :...

  3. Monetary and Fiscal Policy Analysis: Which is More Effective?

    OpenAIRE

    Yunanto, Muhamad; Medyawati, Henny

    2014-01-01

    Fiscal policy is an adjustment in the income and expenditure of government as stipulated inthe state budget in order to achieve better economic stability and pace of development. Themain objective of this study was to measure and analyze Fiscal and Monetary Policy of theGross Domestic Product (GDP). Fiscal Policy Multiplier (FPM) and Monetary PolicyMultiplier (MPM) are used to answer the debate where more effective between fiscal policy andmonetary policy. Short-term models derived through er...

  4. Cost benefit analysis of policy measures in the transport sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buus Kristensen, N. [COWI (Denmark)

    1996-12-01

    The Government has introduced a national target for the reduction of CO{sub 2} emissions from the transport sector, which aims to stabilize emissions at the 1988 level, by the year 2005. This target was first formalized in the Government`s 1990 transport action plan, and later repeated in `Traffic 2005`, published in December 1993. The latter document also makes reference to six strategies, which the Government proposed in order to attain the national target. The majority of the transport policy measures will impact on CO{sub 2} emissions from the sector, even if they are targeted at different objectives, e.g. road safety, air pollution, time savings, etc. A long-list of potential measures, which might be adopted with the primary purpose is to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions, has been identified from the six overall strategies. The measures identified have been subjected to detailed analyses, to ascertain all the potential impacts. The main emphasis has been on clarifying the potential efficacy of each of the measures in reducing CO{sub 2} emissions, and the social costs in a wide sense. The analysis assumes that each policy measure is implemented separately. A methodology is developed that presents the respective consequences in commensurate terms. Similar calculations are undertaken for two different combinations of policy measures. (EG)

  5. Policy Adoption of Forest Management Unit: A Knowledge Diffusion Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julijanti

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Within the policy adoption process of Forest Management Unit (FMU concept, there has been disagreement of stakeholders on FMUs concept. This disagreement is caused by the exchange of knowledge, information, and perception among stakeholders involved. The results of these interactions could speed up, slow down, and prevent the adoption process of FMU policy. The study objective was analyzing process of knowledge diffusion of FMUs development policy and stakeholders interaction in PFMU Batutegi and PFMU Kotaagung Utara, Indonesia. Adoption process was analyzed by the logical diffusion technique based on knowledge time of FMUs concept received and its interaction space. Social interaction among stakeholders was analyzed using method developed by International Development Studies analysis, i.e. interaction among discourse/narrative, actors/networks and politics/interests. The results showed that knowledge diffusion of FMUs concept in both PFMU tends to cascade diffusion. Factors was affecting of it process were network, role of opinion leaders, willingness to know, and understand on FMUs concept. Indicative strategy is needed as anticipating and overcoming an obstacle in its internalization process, i.e. harmonization of legislative and executive relationship, building an opinion the importance of FMU, and optimalizing network for bureaucratic problems.

  6. Current Practice in Research Ethics: Global Trends and New Opportunities for African Universities. Research and Innovation Policy Series. Number 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Liam

    2007-01-01

    Research Ethics has emerged as one of the most well-developed policy areas within the sphere of Research and Innovation Management. As such, for African institutions looking to strengthen their policy frameworks, develop increased collaborations, and increase research outputs, a thorough understanding of global trends in Ethics will be vital.…

  7. A Markovian Entropy Measure for the Analysis of Calcium Activity Time Series.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John P Marken

    Full Text Available Methods to analyze the dynamics of calcium activity often rely on visually distinguishable features in time series data such as spikes, waves, or oscillations. However, systems such as the developing nervous system display a complex, irregular type of calcium activity which makes the use of such methods less appropriate. Instead, for such systems there exists a class of methods (including information theoretic, power spectral, and fractal analysis approaches which use more fundamental properties of the time series to analyze the observed calcium dynamics. We present a new analysis method in this class, the Markovian Entropy measure, which is an easily implementable calcium time series analysis method which represents the observed calcium activity as a realization of a Markov Process and describes its dynamics in terms of the level of predictability underlying the transitions between the states of the process. We applied our and other commonly used calcium analysis methods on a dataset from Xenopus laevis neural progenitors which displays irregular calcium activity and a dataset from murine synaptic neurons which displays activity time series that are well-described by visually-distinguishable features. We find that the Markovian Entropy measure is able to distinguish between biologically distinct populations in both datasets, and that it can separate biologically distinct populations to a greater extent than other methods in the dataset exhibiting irregular calcium activity. These results support the benefit of using the Markovian Entropy measure to analyze calcium dynamics, particularly for studies using time series data which do not exhibit easily distinguishable features.

  8. Application of nonlinear time series analysis techniques to high-frequency currency exchange data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strozzi, Fernanda; Zaldívar, José-Manuel; Zbilut, Joseph P.

    2002-09-01

    In this work we have applied nonlinear time series analysis to high-frequency currency exchange data. The time series studied are the exchange rates between the US Dollar and 18 other foreign currencies from within and without the Euro zone. Our goal was to determine if their dynamical behaviours were in some way correlated. The nonexistence of stationarity called for the application of recurrence quantification analysis as a tool for this analysis, and is based on the definition of several parameters that allow for the quantification of recurrence plots. The method was checked using the European Monetary System currency exchanges. The results show, as expected, the high correlation between the currencies that are part of the Euro, but also a strong correlation between the Japanese Yen, the Canadian Dollar and the British Pound. Singularities of the series are also demonstrated taking into account historical events, in 1996, in the Euro zone.

  9. The Time Series Analysis in the Inspection of Defective Rate on Radio Frequency Devices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui-Mei LI

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The quality of purchased parts is an important factor affecting the whole quality of the products, that how to grasp the size and trend of the defective rate in the warehouse-in inspection, becomes a meaningful theme in the quality control, through studying the modeling method of time series ARIMA model, applies variance analysis to the time series modeling, and carries out the variance analysis to the season data and determine the cycle. From all aspects of model identification, parameter estimation, modeling and prediction, this paper introduces the whole process of modeling and prediction. Utilizing SAS software, together with the variance test method and algorithm flow, establishes an ARIMA model for the defective rate data of purchased RF parts in the incoming inspection from January 2010 to July 2012 in the business platform of a department of XX Company, then performs the NJ time series analysis, and finally completes the short-term prediction for the defective rate value.

  10. Multiresolution diffusion entropy analysis of time series: an application to births to teenagers in Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scafetta, Nicola; West, Bruce J.

    2004-04-01

    The multiresolution diffusion entropy analysis is used to evaluate the stochastic information left in a time series after systematic removal of certain non-stationarities. This method allows us to establish whether the identified patterns are sufficient to capture all relevant information contained in a time series. If they do not, the method suggests the need for further interpretation to explain the residual memory in the signal. We apply the multiresolution diffusion entropy analysis to the daily count of births to teens in Texas from 1964 through 2000 because it is a typical example of a non-stationary time series, having an anomalous trend, an annual variation, as well as short time fluctuations. The analysis is repeated for the three main racial/ethnic groups in Texas (White, Hispanic and African American), as well as, to married and unmarried teens during the years from 1994 to 2000 and we study the differences that emerge among the groups.

  11. Resolution about the second strategic analysis on energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    The French National Assembly has adopted a resolution concerning the European Commission's second strategic analysis on energy policy. The resolution makes acknowledgment of the strategic orientations proposed by the European Commission; however the necessity is emphasized to take into consideration the january 2009 gas crisis experience and therefore to ensure a better diversification of the gas supply to Western Europe. It also considers that a higher impulse (indeed with constraint) is to be given to renewable energy development in order to be able to meet the 2020 target of a 20 percent increase in energy efficiency in the EU

  12. Non-stationary hydrological frequency analysis based on the reconstruction of extreme hydrological series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. M. Hu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a novel approach for non-stationary hydrological frequency analysis is proposed. The approach is due to the following consideration that, at present the data series used to detect mutation characteristic is very short, which may only reflect the partial characteristic of the population. That is to say, the mutation characteristic of short series may not fully represent the mutation characteristic of population, such as the difference of mutation degree between short sample and population. In this proposed method, an assumption is done that the variation hydrological series in a big time window owns an expected vibration center (EVC, which is a linear combination of the two mean values of the two subsample series obtained through separating the original hydrological series by a novel optimal segmentation technique (change rate of slope method. Then using the EVC to reconstruct non-stationary series to meet the requirement of stationary, and further ensure the conventional frequency analysis methods is valid.

  13. Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhaila, Jamaludin; Yusop, Zulkifli

    2017-06-01

    Most of the trend analysis that has been conducted has not considered the existence of a change point in the time series analysis. If these occurred, then the trend analysis will not be able to detect an obvious increasing or decreasing trend over certain parts of the time series. Furthermore, the lack of discussion on the possible factors that influenced either the decreasing or the increasing trend in the series needs to be addressed in any trend analysis. Hence, this study proposes to investigate the trends, and change point detection of mean, maximum and minimum temperature series, both annually and seasonally in Peninsular Malaysia and determine the possible factors that could contribute to the significance trends. In this study, Pettitt and sequential Mann-Kendall (SQ-MK) tests were used to examine the occurrence of any abrupt climate changes in the independent series. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature series suggested that most of the change points in Peninsular Malaysia were detected during the years 1996, 1997 and 1998. These detection points captured by Pettitt and SQ-MK tests are possibly related to climatic factors, such as El Niño and La Niña events. The findings also showed that the majority of the significant change points that exist in the series are related to the significant trend of the stations. Significant increasing trends of annual and seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures in Peninsular Malaysia were found with a range of 2-5 °C/100 years during the last 32 years. It was observed that the magnitudes of the increasing trend in minimum temperatures were larger than the maximum temperatures for most of the studied stations, particularly at the urban stations. These increases are suspected to be linked with the effect of urban heat island other than El Niño event.

  14. ESTIMATING RELIABILITY OF DISTURBANCES IN SATELLITE TIME SERIES DATA BASED ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z.-G. Zhou

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Normally, the status of land cover is inherently dynamic and changing continuously on temporal scale. However, disturbances or abnormal changes of land cover — caused by such as forest fire, flood, deforestation, and plant diseases — occur worldwide at unknown times and locations. Timely detection and characterization of these disturbances is of importance for land cover monitoring. Recently, many time-series-analysis methods have been developed for near real-time or online disturbance detection, using satellite image time series. However, the detection results were only labelled with “Change/ No change” by most of the present methods, while few methods focus on estimating reliability (or confidence level of the detected disturbances in image time series. To this end, this paper propose a statistical analysis method for estimating reliability of disturbances in new available remote sensing image time series, through analysis of full temporal information laid in time series data. The method consists of three main steps. (1 Segmenting and modelling of historical time series data based on Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST. (2 Forecasting and detecting disturbances in new time series data. (3 Estimating reliability of each detected disturbance using statistical analysis based on Confidence Interval (CI and Confidence Levels (CL. The method was validated by estimating reliability of disturbance regions caused by a recent severe flooding occurred around the border of Russia and China. Results demonstrated that the method can estimate reliability of disturbances detected in satellite image with estimation error less than 5% and overall accuracy up to 90%.

  15. Determination of ionization potential of atomic gadolinium and its isotope effect. Analysis of unperturbed Rydberg series

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miyabe, Masabumi; Ohba, Masaki; Wakaida, Ikuo [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    1997-10-01

    Autoionizing Rydberg series converging to six states (0, 261.841, 633.273, 3082.011, 3427.274, 3444.235 cm{sup -1}) of Gd ion have been observed by using three-color three-step photoionization via ten different 2nd-step levels of J=0 or 1. While the perturbations with interlopers become significant in the region of n=30-35 for most of the observed series, long and well-defined series structures appeared in higher energy region. From an analysis of such unperturbed structures, the first ionization potential of Gd atom was estimated to be 49601.45 (30) cm{sup -1}. This is in good agreement with the previous value, but the accuracy is improved by about one order of magnitude. In addition, isotope effect on the ionization potential was also determined by isotope shifts of some Rydberg series. (author)

  16. Promotion of physical activity in the European region: content analysis of 27 national policy documents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daugbjerg, Signe B; Kahlmeier, Sonja; Racioppi, Francesca

    2009-01-01

    search methods, 49 national policy documents on physical activity promotion were identified. An analysis grid covering key features was developed for the analysis of the 27 documents published in English. RESULTS: Analysis showed that many general recommendations for policy developments are being...... a noticeable development of national policy documents on physical activity promotion. Following principles for policy development more closely could increase the effectiveness of their preparation and implementation further....

  17. PyRQA-Conducting recurrence quantification analysis on very long time series efficiently

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rawald, Tobias; Sips, Mike; Marwan, Norbert

    2017-07-01

    PyRQA is a software package that efficiently conducts recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) on time series consisting of more than one million data points. RQA is a method from non-linear time series analysis that quantifies the recurrent behaviour of systems. Existing implementations to RQA are not capable of analysing such very long time series at all or require large amounts of time to calculate the quantitative measures. PyRQA overcomes their limitations by conducting the RQA computations in a highly parallel manner. Building on the OpenCL framework, PyRQA leverages the computing capabilities of a variety of parallel hardware architectures, such as GPUs. The underlying computing approach partitions the RQA computations and enables to employ multiple compute devices at the same time. The goal of this publication is to demonstrate the features and the runtime efficiency of PyRQA. For this purpose we employ a real-world example, comparing the dynamics of two climatological time series, and a synthetic example, reducing the runtime regarding the analysis of a series consisting of over one million data points from almost eight hours using state-of-the-art RQA software to roughly 69 s using PyRQA.

  18. An integrated economic and distributional analysis of energy policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labandeira, Xavier; Labeaga, Jose M.; Rodriguez, Miguel

    2009-01-01

    Most public policies, particularly those in the energy sphere, have not only efficiency but also distributional effects. However, there is a trade-off between modelling approaches suitable for calculating those impacts on the economy. For the former most of the studies have been conducted with general equilibrium models, whereas partial equilibrium models represent the main approach for distributional analysis. This paper proposes a methodology to simultaneously carry out an analysis of the distributional and efficiency consequences of changes in energy taxation. In order to do so, we have integrated a microeconomic household demand model and a computable general equilibrium model for the Spanish economy. We illustrate the advantages of this approach by simulating a revenue-neutral reform in Spanish indirect taxation, with a large increase of energy taxes that serve an environmental purpose. The results show that the reforms bring about significant efficiency and distributional effects, in some cases counterintuitive, and demonstrate the academic and social utility of this approximation.

  19. An integrated economic and distributional analysis of energy policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Labandeira, Xavier [Facultade de CC. Economicas, University of Vigo, 36310 Vigo (Spain); Labeaga, Jose M. [Instituto de Estudios Fiscales, Avda. Cardenal Herrera Oria 378, 28035 Madrid (Spain); Rodriguez, Miguel [Facultade de CC. Empresariais e Turismo, University of Vigo, 32004 Ourense (Spain)

    2009-12-15

    Most public policies, particularly those in the energy sphere, have not only efficiency but also distributional effects. However, there is a trade-off between modelling approaches suitable for calculating those impacts on the economy. For the former most of the studies have been conducted with general equilibrium models, whereas partial equilibrium models represent the main approach for distributional analysis. This paper proposes a methodology to simultaneously carry out an analysis of the distributional and efficiency consequences of changes in energy taxation. In order to do so, we have integrated a microeconomic household demand model and a computable general equilibrium model for the Spanish economy. We illustrate the advantages of this approach by simulating a revenue-neutral reform in Spanish indirect taxation, with a large increase of energy taxes that serve an environmental purpose. The results show that the reforms bring about significant efficiency and distributional effects, in some cases counterintuitive, and demonstrate the academic and social utility of this approximation. (author)

  20. Risk analysis and priority setting for environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1991-01-01

    There is a growing realization that the demand for funding to correct our nation's environmental problems will soon outstrip available resources. In the hazardous waste area alone, the estimated cost of remediating Superfund sites ranges from $32 billion to $80 billion. Numerous other areas of competing for these same financial resources. These include ozone depletion, global warming, the protection of endangered species and wetlands, toxic air pollution, carcinogenic pesticides, and urban smog. In response to this imbalance in the supply and demand for national funds, several political constituencies are calling for the use of risk assessment as a tool in the prioritization of research and budget needs. Comparative risk analysis offers a logical framework in which to organize information about complex environmental problems. Risk analysis allows policy analysts to make resource allocation decisions on the basis of scientific judgement rather than political expediency

  1. Choice of forest map has implications for policy analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seebach, Lucia Maria; McCallum, Ian; Fritz, Steffen

    2012-01-01

    and harmonised approach at the European level. However, they possess different characteristics in terms of spatial detail or thematic accuracy. Little attention has been paid to the effect of these characteristics on simulation models and the resultant policy implications. In this study we tested whether...... the choice of a forest map has substantial influence on model output, i.e. if output differences can be related to the input differences. A sensitivity analysis of the spatially explicit Global Forest Model (G4M) was performed using four different forest maps: the pan-European high resolution forest...... utilization of forest biomass. The sensitivity analysis showed that the choice of the forest cover map has a major influence on the model outputs in particular at the country-level, while having less influence at the EU27 level. Differences between the input datasets are strongly reflected in the outputs...

  2. Online Detection of Impending Instability in a Combustion System Using Tools from Symbolic Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vishnu R. Unni

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we introduce a novel technique (anomaly detection for the online detection of impending instability in a combustion system based on symbolic time series analysis. The experimental results presented in this paper illustrate the application of anomaly detection to a combustor in which the flame is stabilized either by a bluff body or by a swirler. The detection unit works on the principle that in the transition region from combustion noise to thermoacoustic instability, combustion systems exhibit peculiar dynamics which results in the formation of specific patterns in the time series. Further, tools from symbolic time series analysis is used to recognize these patterns and then define an anomaly measure indicative of the proximity of system to regimes of thermoacoustic instability.

  3. Time Series Data Analysis of Wireless Sensor Network Measurements of Temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhandari, Siddhartha; Bergmann, Neil; Jurdak, Raja; Kusy, Branislav

    2017-05-26

    Wireless sensor networks have gained significant traction in environmental signal monitoring and analysis. The cost or lifetime of the system typically depends on the frequency at which environmental phenomena are monitored. If sampling rates are reduced, energy is saved. Using empirical datasets collected from environmental monitoring sensor networks, this work performs time series analyses of measured temperature time series. Unlike previous works which have concentrated on suppressing the transmission of some data samples by time-series analysis but still maintaining high sampling rates, this work investigates reducing the sampling rate (and sensor wake up rate) and looks at the effects on accuracy. Results show that the sampling period of the sensor can be increased up to one hour while still allowing intermediate and future states to be estimated with interpolation RMSE less than 0.2 °C and forecasting RMSE less than 1 °C.

  4. Time Series Analysis of Fed-batch Fermentation Process for L-valine Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tzanko Georgiev

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available Fed-batch fermentation processes are some of the most efficient and wildly applied types of cultivation for industrial production of most amino acids including L-valine. Time series analysis is an important tool for description of the experimental data. This article deals with statistical inference from the time series analysis of generalised stoichiometric equations as a hypothesis for modelling and optimisation. The aim of the article is to develop some time series models of generalized stoichiometric equations. The identification procedure includes the following steps: description of the process by generalized stoichiometric equations; preliminary data processing; model structure selection for each stoichiometric equation; estimation of the model's parameters; verification of the derived models.

  5. Properties of Asymmetric Detrended Fluctuation Analysis in the time series of RR intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piskorski, J.; Kosmider, M.; Mieszkowski, D.; Krauze, T.; Wykretowicz, A.; Guzik, P.

    2018-02-01

    Heart rate asymmetry is a phenomenon by which the accelerations and decelerations of heart rate behave differently, and this difference is consistent and unidirectional, i.e. in most of the analyzed recordings the inequalities have the same directions. So far, it has been established for variance and runs based types of descriptors of RR intervals time series. In this paper we apply the newly developed method of Asymmetric Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, which so far has mainly been used with economic time series, to the set of 420 stationary 30 min time series of RR intervals from young, healthy individuals aged between 20 and 40. This asymmetric approach introduces separate scaling exponents for rising and falling trends. We systematically study the presence of asymmetry in both global and local versions of this method. In this study global means "applying to the whole time series" and local means "applying to windows jumping along the recording". It is found that the correlation structure of the fluctuations left over after detrending in physiological time series shows strong asymmetric features in both magnitude, with α+ physiological data after shuffling or with a group of symmetric synthetic time series.

  6. Statistical attribution analysis of the nonstationarity of the annual runoff series of the Weihe River.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Lihua; Jiang, Cong; Du, Tao

    2014-01-01

    Time-varying moments models based on Pearson Type III and normal distributions respectively are built under the generalized additive model in location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) framework to analyze the nonstationarity of the annual runoff series of the Weihe River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River. The detection of nonstationarities in hydrological time series (annual runoff, precipitation and temperature) from 1960 to 2009 is carried out using a GAMLSS model, and then the covariate analysis for the annual runoff series is implemented with GAMLSS. Finally, the attribution of each covariate to the nonstationarity of annual runoff is analyzed quantitatively. The results demonstrate that (1) obvious change-points exist in all three hydrological series, (2) precipitation, temperature and irrigated area are all significant covariates of the annual runoff series, and (3) temperature increase plays the main role in leading to the reduction of the annual runoff series in the study basin, followed by the decrease of precipitation and the increase of irrigated area.

  7. Complexity analysis of the air temperature and the precipitation time series in Serbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mimić, G.; Mihailović, D. T.; Kapor, D.

    2017-02-01

    In this paper, we have analyzed the time series of daily values for three meteorological elements, two continuous and a discontinuous one, i.e., the maximum and minimum air temperature and the precipitation. The analysis was done based on the observations from seven stations in Serbia from the period 1951-2010. The main aim of this paper was to quantify the complexity of the annual values for the mentioned time series and to calculate the rate of its change. For that purpose, we have used the sample entropy and the Kolmogorov complexity as the measures which can indicate the variability and irregularity of a given time series. Results obtained show that the maximum temperature has increasing trends in the given period which points out a warming, ranged in the interval 1-2 °C. The increasing temperature indicates the higher internal energy of the atmosphere, changing the weather patterns, manifested in the time series. The Kolmogorov complexity of the maximum temperature time series has statistically significant increasing trends, while the sample entropy has increasing but statistically insignificant trend. The trends of complexity measures for the minimum temperature depend on the location. Both complexity measures for the precipitation time series have decreasing trends.

  8. The application of complex network time series analysis in turbulent heated jets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charakopoulos, A. K.; Karakasidis, T. E.; Liakopoulos, A.; Papanicolaou, P. N.

    2014-01-01

    In the present study, we applied the methodology of the complex network-based time series analysis to experimental temperature time series from a vertical turbulent heated jet. More specifically, we approach the hydrodynamic problem of discriminating time series corresponding to various regions relative to the jet axis, i.e., time series corresponding to regions that are close to the jet axis from time series originating at regions with a different dynamical regime based on the constructed network properties. Applying the transformation phase space method (k nearest neighbors) and also the visibility algorithm, we transformed time series into networks and evaluated the topological properties of the networks such as degree distribution, average path length, diameter, modularity, and clustering coefficient. The results show that the complex network approach allows distinguishing, identifying, and exploring in detail various dynamical regions of the jet flow, and associate it to the corresponding physical behavior. In addition, in order to reject the hypothesis that the studied networks originate from a stochastic process, we generated random network and we compared their statistical properties with that originating from the experimental data. As far as the efficiency of the two methods for network construction is concerned, we conclude that both methodologies lead to network properties that present almost the same qualitative behavior and allow us to reveal the underlying system dynamics

  9. FRACTAL ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY EVAPORATION AND PRECIPITATION TIME SERIES AT CENTRAL MEXICO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Magallanes Quintanar

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Advances on climate change research, as well as the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on water resources, would allow the understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of land-surface precipitation and evaporation time series at local and regional levels. In the present study, the spectral analysis approach was applied on monthly evaporation and precipitation anomaly time series with the aim of estimating their self-affinity statistics. The behavior of estimated fractal dimension values of evaporation time series throughout Zacatecas State territory is irregular, and noise in all the evaporation anomaly time series tends to have a persistent behavior. On the other hand, the behavior of estimated fractal dimension values of most of the precipitation time series throughout Zacatecas State territory tends to be like the Brownian motion. Self-affinity statistics of monthly evaporation or precipitation anomaly time series and geographic coordinates of 32 stations were used to estimate correlation coefficients; the results are compelling evidence concerning monthly precipitation anomaly behavior tends to be more regular toward North of Zacatecas State territory, that is, toward driest areas.

  10. The application of complex network time series analysis in turbulent heated jets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charakopoulos, A. K.; Karakasidis, T. E., E-mail: thkarak@uth.gr; Liakopoulos, A. [Laboratory of Hydromechanics and Environmental Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessaly, 38334 Volos (Greece); Papanicolaou, P. N. [School of Civil Engineering, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 5 Heroon Polytechniou St., 15780 Zografos (Greece)

    2014-06-15

    In the present study, we applied the methodology of the complex network-based time series analysis to experimental temperature time series from a vertical turbulent heated jet. More specifically, we approach the hydrodynamic problem of discriminating time series corresponding to various regions relative to the jet axis, i.e., time series corresponding to regions that are close to the jet axis from time series originating at regions with a different dynamical regime based on the constructed network properties. Applying the transformation phase space method (k nearest neighbors) and also the visibility algorithm, we transformed time series into networks and evaluated the topological properties of the networks such as degree distribution, average path length, diameter, modularity, and clustering coefficient. The results show that the complex network approach allows distinguishing, identifying, and exploring in detail various dynamical regions of the jet flow, and associate it to the corresponding physical behavior. In addition, in order to reject the hypothesis that the studied networks originate from a stochastic process, we generated random network and we compared their statistical properties with that originating from the experimental data. As far as the efficiency of the two methods for network construction is concerned, we conclude that both methodologies lead to network properties that present almost the same qualitative behavior and allow us to reveal the underlying system dynamics.

  11. On statistical inference in time series analysis of the evolution of road safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Commandeur, Jacques J F; Bijleveld, Frits D; Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George; Papadimitriou, Eleonora

    2013-11-01

    Data collected for building a road safety observatory usually include observations made sequentially through time. Examples of such data, called time series data, include annual (or monthly) number of road traffic accidents, traffic fatalities or vehicle kilometers driven in a country, as well as the corresponding values of safety performance indicators (e.g., data on speeding, seat belt use, alcohol use, etc.). Some commonly used statistical techniques imply assumptions that are often violated by the special properties of time series data, namely serial dependency among disturbances associated with the observations. The first objective of this paper is to demonstrate the impact of such violations to the applicability of standard methods of statistical inference, which leads to an under or overestimation of the standard error and consequently may produce erroneous inferences. Moreover, having established the adverse consequences of ignoring serial dependency issues, the paper aims to describe rigorous statistical techniques used to overcome them. In particular, appropriate time series analysis techniques of varying complexity are employed to describe the development over time, relating the accident-occurrences to explanatory factors such as exposure measures or safety performance indicators, and forecasting the development into the near future. Traditional regression models (whether they are linear, generalized linear or nonlinear) are shown not to naturally capture the inherent dependencies in time series data. Dedicated time series analysis techniques, such as the ARMA-type and DRAG approaches are discussed next, followed by structural time series models, which are a subclass of state space methods. The paper concludes with general recommendations and practice guidelines for the use of time series models in road safety research. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. A Recurrent Probabilistic Neural Network with Dimensionality Reduction Based on Time-series Discriminant Component Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, Hideaki; Shibanoki, Taro; Shima, Keisuke; Kurita, Yuichi; Tsuji, Toshio

    2015-12-01

    This paper proposes a probabilistic neural network (NN) developed on the basis of time-series discriminant component analysis (TSDCA) that can be used to classify high-dimensional time-series patterns. TSDCA involves the compression of high-dimensional time series into a lower dimensional space using a set of orthogonal transformations and the calculation of posterior probabilities based on a continuous-density hidden Markov model with a Gaussian mixture model expressed in the reduced-dimensional space. The analysis can be incorporated into an NN, which is named a time-series discriminant component network (TSDCN), so that parameters of dimensionality reduction and classification can be obtained simultaneously as network coefficients according to a backpropagation through time-based learning algorithm with the Lagrange multiplier method. The TSDCN is considered to enable high-accuracy classification of high-dimensional time-series patterns and to reduce the computation time taken for network training. The validity of the TSDCN is demonstrated for high-dimensional artificial data and electroencephalogram signals in the experiments conducted during the study.

  13. Operation States Analysis of the Series-Parallel resonant Converter Working Above Resonance Frequency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Dzurko

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Operation states analysis of a series-parallel converter working above resonance frequency is described in the paper. Principal equations are derived for individual operation states. On the basis of them the diagrams are made out. The diagrams give the complex image of the converter behaviour for individual circuit parameters. The waveforms may be utilised at designing the inverter individual parts.

  14. Regression and regression analysis time series prediction modeling on climate data of quetta, pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jafri, Y.Z.; Kamal, L.

    2007-01-01

    Various statistical techniques was used on five-year data from 1998-2002 of average humidity, rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The relationships to regression analysis time series (RATS) were developed for determining the overall trend of these climate parameters on the basis of which forecast models can be corrected and modified. We computed the coefficient of determination as a measure of goodness of fit, to our polynomial regression analysis time series (PRATS). The correlation to multiple linear regression (MLR) and multiple linear regression analysis time series (MLRATS) were also developed for deciphering the interdependence of weather parameters. Spearman's rand correlation and Goldfeld-Quandt test were used to check the uniformity or non-uniformity of variances in our fit to polynomial regression (PR). The Breusch-Pagan test was applied to MLR and MLRATS, respectively which yielded homoscedasticity. We also employed Bartlett's test for homogeneity of variances on a five-year data of rainfall and humidity, respectively which showed that the variances in rainfall data were not homogenous while in case of humidity, were homogenous. Our results on regression and regression analysis time series show the best fit to prediction modeling on climatic data of Quetta, Pakistan. (author)

  15. A Corpus Analysis of Vocabulary Coverage and Vocabulary Learning Opportunities within a Children's Story Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yu-Chih

    2016-01-01

    Extensive reading for second language learners have been widely documented over the past few decades. However, few studies, if any, have used a corpus analysis approach to analyze the vocabulary coverage within a single-author story series, its repetition of vocabulary, and the incidental and intentional vocabulary learning opportunities therein.…

  16. Harmonic analysis of dense time series of landsat imagery for modeling change in forest conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry Tyler. Wilson

    2015-01-01

    This study examined the utility of dense time series of Landsat imagery for small area estimation and mapping of change in forest conditions over time. The study area was a region in north central Wisconsin for which Landsat 7 ETM+ imagery and field measurements from the Forest Inventory and Analysis program are available for the decade of 2003 to 2012. For the periods...

  17. Time-variant power spectral analysis of heart-rate time series by ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    From this observation we conclude that during acute myocardial infarction, the anterior wall MI has stimulated sympathetic activity, while the acute inferior wall MI has stimulated parasympathetic activity. Results obtained from ARMA-based analysis of heart-rate time series signals are capable of complementing the clinical ...

  18. Fourier analysis of time series of NOAA-AVHRR NDVI composites to map isogrowth zones

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Menenti, M.; Azzali, S.; Verhoef, W.

    1995-01-01

    A measurement of the quality of vegetation zones in dynamic terms is provided by the Fourier analysis of time series of AVHRR/NDVI monthly observations over ten years. The present approach is shown to be a powerful way to classify and extract various dynamic parameters of the vegetation in Southern

  19. Green electricity policy in the Netherlands. An analysis of policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rooijen, Sascha van; Wees, Mark van

    2003-01-01

    Over the last decades, fundamental changes in both market conditions and the national and international policy framework in the Netherlands can be observed. The Dutch Government has intervened in markets regularly, demonstrating fundamental shifts in policy and approach. This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in the Netherlands. It assesses changes in the choice of policy instruments and target groups, the role of stakeholders and offers explanations behind policy successes and failures. The following conclusions can be drawn on the policy choices: First, the objectives and targets of Dutch renewable energy policy were frequently ambiguous. Although the government emphasised the importance of investments in local capacity, imports were always (implicitly) seen as an alternative option in meeting targets. Second, for a long period the government focused on reducing investment costs and dismantling administrative barriers. Only recently has the lack of a stable investment climate been identified as a potential barrier. Third, although many stakeholders have advocated a mandatory approach, Dutch policies stimulating renewable energy have always been voluntary. Finally, the Ministry of Economic Affairs has always played a very dominant role in renewable energy policy formulation and implementation, which may explain the fact that some unfavourable market reactions to policies have not been foreseen. (author)

  20. Integrated environmental policy: A review of economic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiesmeth, Hans; Häckl, Dennis

    2017-04-01

    Holistic environmental policies, which emerged from a mere combination of technical activities in waste management some 40 years ago, constitute the most advanced level of environmental policies. These approaches to environmental policy, among them the policies in integrated waste management, attempt to guide economic agents to an environment-friendly behaviour. Nevertheless, current holistic policies in waste management, including policies on one-way drinks containers and waste electrical and electronic equipment, and implementations of extended producer responsibility with further applications to waste electrical and electronic equipment, reveal more or less severe deficiencies - despite some positive examples. This article relates these policy failures, which are not necessarily the result of an insufficient compliance with the regulations, to missing constitutive elements of what is going to be called an 'integrated environmental policy'. This article therefore investigates - mostly from a practical point of view - constitutive elements, which are necessary for a holistic policy to serve as a well-functioning allocation mechanism. As these constitutive elements result from a careful 'integration' of the environmental commodities into the economic allocation problems, we refer to these policies as 'integrated environmental policies'. The article also discusses and illustrates the main steps of designing such a policy - for waste electrical and electronic equipment and a (possible) ban of Glyphosat in agriculture. As these policies are dependent on economic and political stability with environmental awareness sufficiently developed, the article addresses mostly waste management policies in highly industrialised countries.

  1. Development and Application of Econometric Models for Forecasting and Analysis of Monetary Policy Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Malugin, Vladimir; Demidenko , Mikhail; Kalechits, Dmitry; Miksjuk , Alexei; Tsukarev , Taras

    2009-01-01

    A system of econometric models designed for forecasting target monetary indicators as well as conducting monetary policy scenarios analysis is presented. The econometric models integrated in the system are represented in the error correction form and are interlinked by means of monetary policy instruments variables, common exogenous variables characterizing external shocks, and monetary policy target endogenous variables. Forecast accuracy estimates and monetary policy analysis results are pr...

  2. Review of maritime transportation air emission pollution and policy analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Haifeng; Liu, Dahai; Dai, Guilin

    2009-09-01

    The study of air emission in maritime transportation is new, and the recognition of its importance has been rising in the recent decade. The emissions of CO2, SO2, NO2 and particulate matters from maritime transportation have contributed to climate change and environmental degradation. Scientifically, analysts still have controversies regarding how to calculate the emissions and how to choose the baseline and methodologies. Three methods are generally used, namely the ‘bottom up’ approach, the ‘top down’ approach and the STEEM, which produce very different results, leading to various papers with great uncertainties. This, in turn, results in great difficulties to policy makers who attempt to regulate the emissions. A recent technique, the STEEM, is intended to combine the former two methods to reduce their drawbacks. However, the regulations based on its results may increase the costs of shipping companies and cause the competitiveness of the port states and coastal states. Quite a few papers have focused on this area and provided another fresh perspective for the air emission to be incorporated in maritime transportation regulations; these facts deserve more attention. This paper is to review the literature on the debates over air emission calculation, with particular attention given to the STEEM and the refined estimation methods. It also reviews related literature on the economic analysis of maritime transportation emission regulations, and provides an insight into such analysis. At the end of this paper, based on a review and analysis of previous literature, we conclude with the policy indications in the future and work that should be done. As the related regulations in maritime transportation emissions are still at their beginning stage in China, this paper provides specific suggestions on how China should regulate emissions in the maritime transportation sector.

  3. International Commercial Remote Sensing Practices and Policies: A Comparative Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stryker, Timothy

    sensing satellite industry. In commissioning this study, NOAA's goal was to better understand the role that U.S. Government policies and regulations have in shaping the prospects for emerging commercial remote sensing satellite firms. The study assessed the risks against broader trends in the larger U.S. remote sensing industry and geospatial technology and effective policy implementation. The Department of Commerce is working with NOAA licensees to identify foreign actions which could restrict market access by U.S. firms, and seeking to provide a "level playing field" for U.S. service providers. The Department of Commerce has dedicated new resources to its licensing activities. In Fiscal Year 2002, the Department obtained 1.2 million in funding to support the NOAA program, through staff, equipment, technical support, constituent outreach, and market and policy studies. To better understand the market and make more well-informed licensing decisions, NOAA is participating in a broad-based market study effort under the direction of the American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing (ASPRS) and NASA's Commercial Remote Sensing Program. This study is providing long-term analysis of the commercial remote sensing industry. It is being supported by interviews with industry and government experts, a web-based survey, and a thorough review and analysis of related literature. The project should more clearly determine future remote sensing needs and requirements, and maximize the industry's baselines, standards, and socio-economic potential. NOAA, through its participation in this study, has gained important new insights into the status and future trends of this industry. The study's initial findings estimate 2001 industry revenue at 2 billion, growing at 13% per year, to an approximate level of 6 billion in 2010 (in constant, calendar year 2000 dollars). Currently, across all sectors, the most active market segments are in nati onal /glo bal security, mapping

  4. Unified functional network and nonlinear time series analysis for complex systems science: The pyunicorn package

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donges, Jonathan; Heitzig, Jobst; Beronov, Boyan; Wiedermann, Marc; Runge, Jakob; Feng, Qing Yi; Tupikina, Liubov; Stolbova, Veronika; Donner, Reik; Marwan, Norbert; Dijkstra, Henk; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-04-01

    We introduce the pyunicorn (Pythonic unified complex network and recurrence analysis toolbox) open source software package for applying and combining modern methods of data analysis and modeling from complex network theory and nonlinear time series analysis. pyunicorn is a fully object-oriented and easily parallelizable package written in the language Python. It allows for the construction of functional networks such as climate networks in climatology or functional brain networks in neuroscience representing the structure of statistical interrelationships in large data sets of time series and, subsequently, investigating this structure using advanced methods of complex network theory such as measures and models for spatial networks, networks of interacting networks, node-weighted statistics, or network surrogates. Additionally, pyunicorn provides insights into the nonlinear dynamics of complex systems as recorded in uni- and multivariate time series from a non-traditional perspective by means of recurrence quantification analysis, recurrence networks, visibility graphs, and construction of surrogate time series. The range of possible applications of the library is outlined, drawing on several examples mainly from the field of climatology. pyunicorn is available online at https://github.com/pik-copan/pyunicorn. Reference: J.F. Donges, J. Heitzig, B. Beronov, M. Wiedermann, J. Runge, Q.-Y. Feng, L. Tupikina, V. Stolbova, R.V. Donner, N. Marwan, H.A. Dijkstra, and J. Kurths, Unified functional network and nonlinear time series analysis for complex systems science: The pyunicorn package, Chaos 25, 113101 (2015), DOI: 10.1063/1.4934554, Preprint: arxiv.org:1507.01571 [physics.data-an].

  5. Independent component analysis: A new possibility for analysing series of electron energy loss spectra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnet, Nogl; Nuzillard, Danielle

    2005-01-01

    A complementary approach is proposed for analysing series of electron energy-loss spectra that can be recorded with the spectrum-line technique, across an interface for instance. This approach, called blind source separation (BSS) or independent component analysis (ICA), complements two existing methods: the spatial difference approach and multivariate statistical analysis. The principle of the technique is presented and illustrations are given through one simulated example and one real example

  6. A Policy Analysis of Smoke-Free Legislation in Kentucky.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kehler, Stephanie; Hahn, Ellen J

    2016-05-01

    This article presents a policy analysis of proposed smoke-free legislation in Kentucky during the 2015 General Assembly. Kingdon's three streams model of agenda setting is used to analyze the failure to pass HB145. Secondhand smoke exposure and related deaths are a significant public health problem in Kentucky, a state with one of the highest smoking rates in the U.S. HB145, a comprehensive smoke-free bill, was designed to protect workers and the general public from secondhand smoke and e-cigarette aerosol in enclosed workplaces and public places, with few exemptions. The bill faced intense criticism from opponents who were concerned about violation of personal and business rights and the belief that the decision should be addressed on a local level. HB145 passed the House with amendments but failed to receive a hearing in the Senate. Failure of the smoke-free legislation was due to partisanship, fragmentation of advocacy groups, lack of political bargaining, and conflict of values. As in past years, the policy window did not open for state smoke-free legislation in 2015. © The Author(s) 2016.

  7. A model for policy analysis of the greenhouse effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hope, C.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes the PAGE model (for Policy Analysis of the Greenhouse Effect), developed by Cambridge Decision Analysts for the Directorate general for Environment, Nuclear Safety and Civil Protection of the Commission of the European Communities. The rest of this section describes the motivation for developing PAGE; it is followed by sections outlining the features of PAGE, explaining its structure in more detail, and reporting some of the uses to which it is being put. The current consensus is that unchecked emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to a rise in global mean temperature. The causal chain from emissions to temperature is complex, and current estimates give a range of 2 - 5 deg C for the temperature rise by the year 2100 if no specific actions are taken to control emissions. The damage that a global temperature rise of a few degrees over a century would cause is also not well known. Some influential groups are sufficiently alarmed to have called for global agreements to stabilize or reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases. Others claim that the costs of doing so would not be justified, and that adapting to a changed climate would be the best policy. Negotiations are further complicated by the global nature of the problem; if a country, or even a major trading block such as the European Community, decided to control emissions of a greenhouse gas, some of the benefit would be gained in other parts of the world that have not shared in the cost of control. 12 refs., 6 figs

  8. A study on the nuclear foreign policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Keun Bae; Choi, Y. M.; Lee, D. J.; Lee, K. S.; Lee, B. W.; Cho, I. H.; Ko, H. S.

    1996-12-01

    This study aims to analyses recent trends of international situation relating to nuclear non-proliferation and the adverse conditions in Korea's pursuing self-support of such technology, so that it may map out effective strategies for the promotion of nuclear energy. This study analyses developments of international nuclear non-proliferation regime, which plays a main role in preventing the international proliferation of nuclear weapons. This study includes NPT, IAEA safeguards system, international export control regimes, CTBT, and NWFZs as the subjects of analysis. Second theme is international organizations concerning nuclear activities. This study mainly analyses IAEA activities which pursues the promotion of peaceful use of nuclear energy and nuclear non-proliferation simultaneously as a pivotal body of international nuclear cooperation. Third focus of this study is Northeast Asian circumstances pertaining to nuclear non-proliferation. The study looks into the DPRK nuclear issues, and reviews the developments of the proposed regional body for nuclear cooperation and the discussion on the Northeast Asian NWFZ. Fourth, but the most influential to Korean nuclear activities, is the U. S. nuclear policy, since U. S. takes the overwhelming initiative in the field of international nuclear non-proliferation. Therefore, this study gives much weight in analyzing the structure, procedures, recent trend, and pending issues of U. S. nuclear policy. (author). 78 refs., 5 tabs., 4 figs

  9. Green electricity policies in the Netherlands: an analysis of policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rooijen, Sascha N.M. van; Wees, Mark T. van

    2006-01-01

    Over the last decades, fundamental changes can be observed in both market conditions and the national policy framework for green electricity in the Netherlands. The Dutch Government has regularly intervened in markets, demonstrating fundamental shifts in policy and approach. This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in the Netherlands. It assesses changes in the choice of policy instruments and target groups, the role of stakeholders, and offers explanations behind policy successes and failures. Dutch green electricity policy over the last decade can be characterised roughly by three phases: in the early 1990s, the government negotiated voluntary agreements with the energy distribution sector on targets for green electricity sales, which were never met. In the second half of the 1990s, a regulatory energy tax was introduced, from which customers of green electricity were exempt. This led to a substantial increase in demand, which was largely met by green electricity imports, and did not lead to additional domestic renewable energy capacity. Finally, a change in policy has taken place recently (2003) shifting the focus from promotion of demand to the promotion of supply through a system of regulated feed-in tariffs. Despite the renewable energy policies, growth of the renewable energy market in the Netherlands has been small and targets have not been fully met. The Dutch government has not yet succeeded in substantially reducing market uncertainties and in building confidence among market parties, because the policies have not been stable and policy objectives have frequently been partly ambiguous. In addition, the influence of stakeholders in renewable energy policy making has been small which has the early acceptance and implementation of alternative policies

  10. A two-step approach for the analysis of hybrids in comparative social policy analysis: a nuanced typology of childcare between policies and regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciccia, Rossella

    2017-01-01

    Typologies have represented an important tool for the development of comparative social policy research and continue to be widely used in spite of growing criticism of their ability to capture the complexity of welfare states and their internal heterogeneity. In particular, debates have focused on the presence of hybrid cases and the existence of distinct cross-national pattern of variation across areas of social policy. There is growing awareness around these issues, but empirical research often still relies on methodologies aimed at classifying countries in a limited number of unambiguous types. This article proposes a two-step approach based on fuzzy-set ideal type analysis for the systematic analysis of hybrids at the level of both policies (step 1) and policy configurations or combinations of policies (step 2). This approach is demonstrated by using the case of childcare policies in European economies. In the first step, parental leave policies are analysed using three methods-direct, indirect, and combinatory-to identify and describe specific hybrid forms at the level of policy analysis. In the second step, the analysis moves on to investigate the relationship between parental leave and childcare services. Clearly shows that many countries display characteristics normally associated with different types (hybrids and sub-types) . Therefore, this two-step approach demonstrates that disaggregated and aggregated analyses are equally important to account for hybrid welfare forms and make sense of the tensions and incongruences within and between policies.

  11. Hold-Up Time Analysis of a DC-Link Module With a Series Voltage Compensator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Huai; Liu, Wenchao; Chung, Henry

    2012-01-01

    A dc-link module composed of dc-link capacitors and a series voltage compensator has been proposed. It has been verified that the module can reduce the dc-link capacitance to 10–20% while achieving a very low voltage ripple across its output terminals. This paper investigates the required dc......-link capacitance when a certain period of hold-up time is considered. Trade-off design conditions are presented and the hold-up time is compared with the solution without the series voltage compensator. The analysis is crucial to power converters connected to critical loads when hold-up time is required...

  12. Modeling malaria control intervention effect in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa using intervention time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebhuoma, Osadolor; Gebreslasie, Michael; Magubane, Lethumusa

    The change of the malaria control intervention policy in South Africa (SA), re-introduction of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), may be responsible for the low and sustained malaria transmission in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN). We evaluated the effect of the re-introduction of DDT on malaria in KZN and suggested practical ways the province can strengthen her already existing malaria control and elimination efforts, to achieve zero malaria transmission. We obtained confirmed monthly malaria cases in KZN from the malaria control program of KZN from 1998 to 2014. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) intervention time series analysis (ITSA) was employed to model the effect of the re-introduction of DDT on confirmed monthly malaria cases. The result is an abrupt and permanent decline of monthly malaria cases (w 0 =-1174.781, p-value=0.003) following the implementation of the intervention policy. The sustained low malaria cases observed over a long period suggests that the continued usage of DDT did not result in insecticide resistance as earlier anticipated. It may be due to exophagic malaria vectors, which renders the indoor residual spraying not totally effective. Therefore, the feasibility of reducing malaria transmission to zero in KZN requires other reliable and complementary intervention resources to optimize the existing ones. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  13. The intervention effect of local alcohol licensing policies on hospital admission and crime: a natural experiment using a novel Bayesian synthetictime-series method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vocht, Frank; Tilling, Kate; Pliakas, Triantafyllos; Angus, Colin; Egan, Matt; Brennan, Alan; Campbell, Rona; Hickman, Matthew

    2017-09-01

    Control of alcohol licensing at local government level is a key component of alcohol policy in England. There is, however, only weak evidence of any public health improvement. We used a novel natural experiment design to estimate the impact of new local alcohol licensing policies on hospital admissions and crime. We used Home Office licensing data (2007-2012) to identify (1) interventions: local areas where both a cumulative impact zone and increased licensing enforcement were introduced in 2011; and (2) controls: local areas with neither. Outcomes were 2009-2015 alcohol-related hospital admissions, violent and sexual crimes, and antisocial behaviour. Bayesian structural time series were used to create postintervention synthetic time series (counterfactuals) based on weighted time series in control areas. Intervention effects were calculated from differences between measured and expected trends. Validation analyses were conducted using randomly selected controls. 5 intervention and 86 control areas were identified. Intervention was associated with an average reduction in alcohol-related hospital admissions of 6.3% (95% credible intervals (CI) -12.8% to 0.2%) and to lesser extent with a reduced in violent crimes, especially up to 2013 (-4.6%, 95% CI -10.7% to 1.4%). There was weak evidence of an effect on sexual crimes up 2013 (-8.4%, 95% CI -21.4% to 4.6%) and insufficient evidence of an effect on antisocial behaviour as a result of a change in reporting. Moderate reductions in alcohol-related hospital admissions and violent and sexual crimes were associated with introduction of local alcohol licensing policies. This novel methodology holds promise for use in other natural experiments in public health. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  14. Detection of statistical asymmetries in non-stationary sign time series: Analysis of foreign exchange data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arthur Matsuo Yamashita Rios de Sousa

    Full Text Available We extend the concept of statistical symmetry as the invariance of a probability distribution under transformation to analyze binary sign time series data of price difference from the foreign exchange market. We model segments of the sign time series as Markov sequences and apply a local hypothesis test to evaluate the symmetries of independence and time reversion in different periods of the market. For the test, we derive the probability of a binary Markov process to generate a given set of number of symbol pairs. Using such analysis, we could not only segment the time series according the different behaviors but also characterize the segments in terms of statistical symmetries. As a particular result, we find that the foreign exchange market is essentially time reversible but this symmetry is broken when there is a strong external influence.

  15. Reverse Transfer: Paving the Pathway. ECS Education Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Lexi

    2015-01-01

    States are taking several distinct approaches to implement reverse transfer policies. Although contextualized by state-specific factors, approaches to policy implementation commonly include determination of a group or regulatory body responsible for policy oversight, technology, funding and identification of students eligible to participate in…

  16. A Theoretical Analysis of Agricultural Policy in Nigeria.

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The colonial and post-colonial Nigerian State inherited agricultural policy antithetical to its development and the realization of domestic objectives. This paper establishes a theoretical nexus between a neo-colonial state, poverty, agricultural practices and policies. It examines the agricultural policies of the Nigerian state ...

  17. Analysis of the agricultural policies in the development of the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This review work identifies the two main agricultural policies in Nigeria between 1988 and 2000, and 2001 to date, the broad policy objectives and the main features of the agricultural policies. The paper examines the primary role of the agricultural sector in the growth and development of the Nigerian economy. The main ...

  18. Sensitivity analysis of machine-learning models of hydrologic time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Reilly, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Sensitivity analysis traditionally has been applied to assessing model response to perturbations in model parameters, where the parameters are those model input variables adjusted during calibration. Unlike physics-based models where parameters represent real phenomena, the equivalent of parameters for machine-learning models are simply mathematical "knobs" that are automatically adjusted during training/testing/verification procedures. Thus the challenge of extracting knowledge of hydrologic system functionality from machine-learning models lies in their very nature, leading to the label "black box." Sensitivity analysis of the forcing-response behavior of machine-learning models, however, can provide understanding of how the physical phenomena represented by model inputs affect the physical phenomena represented by model outputs.As part of a previous study, hybrid spectral-decomposition artificial neural network (ANN) models were developed to simulate the observed behavior of hydrologic response contained in multidecadal datasets of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow. Model inputs used moving window averages (MWA) to represent various frequencies and frequency-band components of time series of rainfall and groundwater use. Using these forcing time series, the MWA-ANN models were trained to predict time series of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at 51 sites in central Florida, USA. A time series of sensitivities for each MWA-ANN model was produced by perturbing forcing time-series and computing the change in response time-series per unit change in perturbation. Variations in forcing-response sensitivities are evident between types (lake, groundwater level, or spring), spatially (among sites of the same type), and temporally. Two generally common characteristics among sites are more uniform sensitivities to rainfall over time and notable increases in sensitivities to groundwater usage during significant drought periods.

  19. Application of the Allan Variance to Time Series Analysis in Astrometry and Geodesy: A Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malkin, Zinovy

    2016-04-01

    The Allan variance (AVAR) was introduced 50 years ago as a statistical tool for assessing the frequency standards deviations. For the past decades, AVAR has increasingly been used in geodesy and astrometry to assess the noise characteristics in geodetic and astrometric time series. A specific feature of astrometric and geodetic measurements, as compared with clock measurements, is that they are generally associated with uncertainties; thus, an appropriate weighting should be applied during data analysis. In addition, some physically connected scalar time series naturally form series of multidimensional vectors. For example, three station coordinates time series X, Y, and Z can be combined to analyze 3-D station position variations. The classical AVAR is not intended for processing unevenly weighted and/or multidimensional data. Therefore, AVAR modifications, namely weighted AVAR (WAVAR), multidimensional AVAR (MAVAR), and weighted multidimensional AVAR (WMAVAR), were introduced to overcome these deficiencies. In this paper, a brief review is given of the experience of using AVAR and its modifications in processing astrogeodetic time series.

  20. Recurrence networks-a novel paradigm for nonlinear time series analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donner, Reik V [Max Planck Institute for Physics of Complex Systems, Dresden (Germany); Zou Yong; Donges, Jonathan F; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Juergen [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany)], E-mail: donner@vwi.tu-dresden.de

    2010-03-15

    This paper presents a new approach for analysing the structural properties of time series from complex systems. Starting from the concept of recurrences in phase space, the recurrence matrix of a time series is interpreted as the adjacency matrix of an associated complex network, which links different points in time if the considered states are closely neighboured in phase space. In comparison with similar network-based techniques the new approach has important conceptual advantages, and can be considered as a unifying framework for transforming time series into complex networks that also includes other existing methods as special cases. It has been demonstrated here that there are fundamental relationships between many topological properties of recurrence networks and different nontrivial statistical properties of the phase space density of the underlying dynamical system. Hence, this novel interpretation of the recurrence matrix yields new quantitative characteristics (such as average path length, clustering coefficient, or centrality measures of the recurrence network) related to the dynamical complexity of a time series, most of which are not yet provided by other existing methods of nonlinear time series analysis.

  1. Contemporary Federal Education Policy and Rural Schools: A Critical Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Jerry; Howley, Craig B.

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on contemporary federal education policy as it manifests in rural schools. Rural schools differ appreciably from nonrural schools in terms of organizational systems, structures, and culture. Federal policies that drive school improvement initiatives (e.g., those regulating the functioning of schools and those managing the…

  2. Responses to Including Parents in Teacher Evaluation Policy: A Critical Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, Erica; LeChasseur, Kimberly; Donaldson, Morgaen L.

    2018-01-01

    The intersection of development in family and school settings has been well established and education policies have begun to promote ways to bridge the two contexts (i.e. teacher evaluations). For this manuscript, authors focus on how teachers and principals used a state educator evaluation policy to position parents as authorities on education.…

  3. The Politics of Educational Policy Studies: A Preliminary Analysis of Leading Educational Policy Journal Publications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardy, Ian

    2009-01-01

    This paper argues that the content, analytical approaches and institutional affiliations of authors of articles published in the latest issues of two leading educational policy studies journals provide useful insights into the contested nature of educational policy studies. The paper draws upon a selection of articles published in 2007/08 issues…

  4. Leaders and laggards in environmental policy: a quantitative analysis of domestic policy outputs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liefferink, D.; Arts, B.; Kamstra, J.; Ooijevaar, J.

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates the domestic characteristics of 'leaders' and 'laggards' in environmental policy in 21 European countries as well as the USA, Mexico and Japan from 1970. Data with regard to environmental policy strength are related to a set of potentially explanatory domestic factors. By way

  5. Checklist "Open Access Policies": Analysis of the Open Access Policies of Public Universities in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Bauer

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This checklist provides an overview of the Open Access policies implemented at Austrian universities and extramural research institutions. Furthermore, the polices adopted at nine public universities are analyzed and the respective text modules are categorized thematically. The second part of the checklist presents measures for the promotion of Open Access following the implementation of an Open Access policy.

  6. Application of Time-Series Analysis for Predicting Defects in Continuous Steel Casting Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodziewicz A.

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper was testing suitability of the time-series analysis for quality control of the continuous steel casting process in production conditions. The analysis was carried out on industrial data collected in one of Polish steel plants. The production data concerned defective fractions of billets obtained in the process. The procedure of the industrial data preparation is presented. The computations for the time-series analysis were carried out in two ways, both using the authors’ own software. The first one, applied to the real numbers type of the data has a wide range of capabilities, including not only prediction of the future values but also detection of important periodicity in data. In the second approach the data were assumed in a binary (categorical form, i.e. the every heat(melt was labeled as ‘Good’ or ‘Defective’. The naïve Bayesian classifier was used for predicting the successive values. The most interesting results of the analysis include good prediction accuracies obtained by both methodologies, the crucial influence of the last preceding point on the predicted result for the real data time-series analysis as well as obtaining an information about the type of misclassification for binary data. The possibility of prediction of the future values can be used by engineering or operational staff with an expert knowledge to decrease fraction of defective products by taking appropriate action when the forthcoming period is identified as critical.

  7. The promise of the state space approach to time series analysis for nursing research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Janet A; Elser, Heather E; Knobel, Robin B

    2012-01-01

    Nursing research, particularly related to physiological development, often depends on the collection of time series data. The state space approach to time series analysis has great potential to answer exploratory questions relevant to physiological development but has not been used extensively in nursing. The aim of the study was to introduce the state space approach to time series analysis and demonstrate potential applicability to neonatal monitoring and physiology. We present a set of univariate state space models; each one describing a process that generates a variable of interest over time. Each model is presented algebraically and a realization of the process is presented graphically from simulated data. This is followed by a discussion of how the model has been or may be used in two nursing projects on neonatal physiological development. The defining feature of the state space approach is the decomposition of the series into components that are functions of time; specifically, slowly varying level, faster varying periodic, and irregular components. State space models potentially simulate developmental processes where a phenomenon emerges and disappears before stabilizing, where the periodic component may become more regular with time, or where the developmental trajectory of a phenomenon is irregular. The ultimate contribution of this approach to nursing science will require close collaboration and cross-disciplinary education between nurses and statisticians.

  8. Statistical tools for analysis and modeling of cosmic populations and astronomical time series: CUDAHM and TSE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loredo, Thomas; Budavari, Tamas; Scargle, Jeffrey D.

    2018-01-01

    This presentation provides an overview of open-source software packages addressing two challenging classes of astrostatistics problems. (1) CUDAHM is a C++ framework for hierarchical Bayesian modeling of cosmic populations, leveraging graphics processing units (GPUs) to enable applying this computationally challenging paradigm to large datasets. CUDAHM is motivated by measurement error problems in astronomy, where density estimation and linear and nonlinear regression must be addressed for populations of thousands to millions of objects whose features are measured with possibly complex uncertainties, potentially including selection effects. An example calculation demonstrates accurate GPU-accelerated luminosity function estimation for simulated populations of $10^6$ objects in about two hours using a single NVIDIA Tesla K40c GPU. (2) Time Series Explorer (TSE) is a collection of software in Python and MATLAB for exploratory analysis and statistical modeling of astronomical time series. It comprises a library of stand-alone functions and classes, as well as an application environment for interactive exploration of times series data. The presentation will summarize key capabilities of this emerging project, including new algorithms for analysis of irregularly-sampled time series.

  9. Application of Time Series Analysis in Determination of Lag Time in Jahanbin Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seied Yahya Mirzaee

    2005-11-01

        One of the important issues that have significant role in study of hydrology of basin is determination of lag time. Lag time has significant role in hydrological studies. Quantity of rainfall related lag time depends on several factors, such as permeability, vegetation cover, catchments slope, rainfall intensity, storm duration and type of rain. Determination of lag time is important parameter in many projects such as dam design and also water resource studies. Lag time of basin could be calculated using various methods. One of these methods is time series analysis of spectral density. The analysis is based on fouries series. The time series is approximated with Sinuous and Cosines functions. In this method harmonically significant quantities with individual frequencies are presented. Spectral density under multiple time series could be used to obtain basin lag time for annual runoff and short-term rainfall fluctuation. A long lag time could be due to snowmelt as well as melting ice due to rainfalls in freezing days. In this research the lag time of Jahanbin basin has been determined using spectral density method. The catchments is subjected to both rainfall and snowfall. For short term rainfall fluctuation with a return period  2, 3, 4 months, the lag times were found 0.18, 0.5 and 0.083 month, respectively.

  10. The Relevance of Coordinate Time Series Analysis In Permanent GPS Networks: The European Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenyeres, A.

    An evolving research tendency in Earth sciences is the use and exploitation of multi- purpose, permanently operating GNSS stations. They may serve the everyday practice (navigation, geodesy), specific research activities (e.g. geokinematics) and near-future applications (e.g. meteorology) as well. The long-term maintenance of station and product consistency is vital to guarantee the quality in all cases. This paper concen- trates on the geokinematic application of the GPS, where station velocities are derived from the long-term observation series of the permanent stations. This application re- quires the most sophisticated and careful analysis of station coordinate time series in order to derive mm-accuracy velocities. However the long term consistency of the times series is corrupted by events caused by technical interruptions (hardware config- uration changes), environmental effects (emerging noise and multipath sources) and human interactions (changes in network configuration and processing scheme). The general effects of all these phenomena are seen in the time series as jumps and outlier periods and they decrease the accuracy and reliability of the estimated velocities. The careful analysis, identification, bookkeeping and elimination of the nuisance factors should be a basic research activity in order to recover the capabilities of the observing system. Within the EUREF Permanent Network (EPN) an effort has been started in 2000, in order to perform a review-analysis of the EPN weekly combined solutions. The coordinate time series of all stations are examined, the jumps and outliers are eliminated and a cleaned multi-year combination will be computed. This retrospective work will be completed in 2002, which will be followed by a continuous tracking of the station performance. In this paper the experiences and the actual status of this work are presented.

  11. Campus Sustainability Governance in Canada: A Content Analysis of Post-Secondary Institutions' Sustainability Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughter, Philip; McKenzie, Marcia; Lidstone, Lauri; Wright, Tarah

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims to provide an overview of a content analysis of sustainability policies from Canadian post-secondary education institutions. The paper reports findings on the orientations to sustainability evident in the policies; references to other policies within the documents; and other key themes on how sustainability is engaged in…

  12. The argument for pharmaceutical policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Traulsen, Janine Morgall; Almarsdóttir, Anna Birna

    2005-01-01

    of pharmacy and it is therefore imperative that it be understood, discussed and debated within the pharmacy profession and included in the curriculum of schools of pharmacy. This, the first article in a series, argues for the importance of the academic discipline of pharmaceutical policy analysis...... pharmaceutical policy is made; pharmaceutical policy as a dynamic process; and the new public health as a global issue. The article ends with a short description of the remaining five articles in the series which will deal with important aspects of pharmaceutical policy. The topics include: economic pressures...

  13. Fractal time series analysis of postural stability in elderly and control subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doussot Michel

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The study of balance using stabilogram analysis is of particular interest in the study of falls. Although simple statistical parameters derived from the stabilogram have been shown to predict risk of falls, such measures offer little insight into the underlying control mechanisms responsible for degradation in balance. In contrast, fractal and non-linear time-series analysis of stabilograms, such as estimations of the Hurst exponent (H, may provide information related to the underlying motor control strategies governing postural stability. In order to be adapted for a home-based follow-up of balance, such methods need to be robust, regardless of the experimental protocol, while producing time-series that are as short as possible. The present study compares two methods of calculating H: Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA and Stabilogram Diffusion Analysis (SDA for elderly and control subjects, as well as evaluating the effect of recording duration. Methods Centre of pressure signals were obtained from 90 young adult subjects and 10 elderly subjects. Data were sampled at 100 Hz for 30 s, including stepping onto and off the force plate. Estimations of H were made using sliding windows of 10, 5, and 2.5 s durations, with windows slid forward in 1-s increments. Multivariate analysis of variance was used to test for the effect of time, age and estimation method on the Hurst exponent, while the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC was used as a measure of reliability. Results Both SDA and DFA methods were able to identify differences in postural stability between control and elderly subjects for time series as short as 5 s, with ICC values as high as 0.75 for DFA. Conclusion Both methods would be well-suited to non-invasive longitudinal assessment of balance. In addition, reliable estimations of H were obtained from time series as short as 5 s.

  14. Statistical Analysis of Time-Series from Monitoring of Active Volcanic Vents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachowycz, S.; Cosma, I.; Pyle, D. M.; Mather, T. A.; Rodgers, M.; Varley, N. R.

    2016-12-01

    Despite recent advances in the collection and analysis of time-series from volcano monitoring, and the resulting insights into volcanic processes, challenges remain in forecasting and interpreting activity from near real-time analysis of monitoring data. Statistical methods have potential to characterise the underlying structure and facilitate intercomparison of these time-series, and so inform interpretation of volcanic activity. We explore the utility of multiple statistical techniques that could be widely applicable to monitoring data, including Shannon entropy and detrended fluctuation analysis, by their application to various data streams from volcanic vents during periods of temporally variable activity. Each technique reveals changes through time in the structure of some of the data that were not apparent from conventional analysis. For example, we calculate the Shannon entropy (a measure of the randomness of a signal) of time-series from the recent dome-forming eruptions of Volcán de Colima (Mexico) and Soufrière Hills (Montserrat). The entropy of real-time seismic measurements and the count rate of certain volcano-seismic event types from both volcanoes is found to be temporally variable, with these data generally having higher entropy during periods of lava effusion and/or larger explosions. In some instances, the entropy shifts prior to or coincident with changes in seismic or eruptive activity, some of which were not clearly recognised by real-time monitoring. Comparison with other statistics demonstrates the sensitivity of the entropy to the data distribution, but that it is distinct from conventional statistical measures such as coefficient of variation. We conclude that each analysis technique examined could provide valuable insights for interpretation of diverse monitoring time-series.

  15. Raise the Flag for Mountains: Enhancing Policy Dialogue and Knowledge Sharing through the World Mountain Forum Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Wehrli

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available As a mountain country, Switzerland has an intrinsic interest and a proven track record in sustainable mountain development (SMD. Many Swiss stakeholders, including the federal and cantonal administrations, universities, and nongovernmental organizations, actively contribute to global SMD in many ways. Switzerland, with its extensive operational experience in mountainous countries around the world, has been one of the driving forces promoting policy dialogue and knowledge management among different actors to support SMD on various levels. This is reflected in its support for the United Nations’ Agenda 21 and the recent Agenda 2030. Still, after close to 25 years of global policy engagement, the voice of the mountains has not yet gained sufficient momentum and needs further strengthening.

  16. Foreign direct investment and liberalization policies in Pakistan: An empirical analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rana Ejaz Ali Khan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available To enhance the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI and ultimately to increase the economic growth, the countries have implemented a variety of financial and trade liberalization policies in the last three decades. Pakistan also initiated such type of policies. This study makes an analysis of the impact of liberalization (financial and trade in Pakistan, on the inflow of FDI using the time series data of 1971–2009. The DF-GLS test is used to determine the level of integration, and autoregressive distributed lag model to examine the long-run relationship. The results indicate that liberalization indicators, like financial liberalization index and trade openness along with real interest rate, negatively affect the inflow of FDI in Pakistan. Tax revenue of product also negatively affects the FDI. On the other hand, the gross fixed capital formation, infrastructure, and inflation positively influence the FDI in Pakistan. The market size (proxied by real gross domestic product has shown insignificant effect on FDI.

  17. Open Access Journal Policies: A Systematic Analysis of Radiology Journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayan, Anand; Lobner, Katie; Fritz, Jan

    2018-02-01

    The open access movement has pushed for greater access to scientific knowledge by expanding access to scientific journal articles. There is limited information about the extent to which open access policies have been adopted by radiology journals. We performed a systematic analysis to ascertain the proportion of radiology journals with open access options. A search was performed with the assistance of a clinical informationist. Full and mixed English-language diagnostic and interventional radiology Web of Science journals (impact factors > 1.0) were included. Nuclear medicine, radiation oncology, physics, and solicitation-only journals were excluded. Primary outcome was open access option (yes or no) with additional outcomes including presence or absence of embargo, complete or partial copyright transfer, publication fees, and self-archiving policies. Secondary outcomes included journal citations, journal impact factors, immediacy, Eigenfactor, and article influence scores. Independent double readings were performed with differences resolved by consensus, supplemented by contacting editorial staff at each journal. In all, 125 journals were identified; review yielded 49 journals (39%, mean impact factor of 2.61). Thirty-six of the journals had open access options (73.4%), and four journals were exclusively open access (8.2%). Twelve-month embargoes were most commonly cited (90.6%) with 28.6% of journals stating that they did not require a complete transfer of copyright. Prices for open access options ranged from $750 to $4,000 (median $3,000). No statistically significant differences were found in journal impact measures comparing journals with open access options to journals without open access options. Diagnostic and interventional radiology journals have widely adopted open access options with a few radiology journals being exclusively open access. Copyright © 2017 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Analyzing Public Discourse: Using Media Content Analysis to Understand the Policy Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraisky, Nancy Green

    2016-01-01

    One of the most basic and obvious sources of data for education policy analysis is text. This article discusses content analysis as an important part of the methodological toolbox for elucidating patterns and trends about education policy. Focusing specifically on media, I show how media content analysis can produce nuanced insights about the ways…

  19. Language Ideology or Language Practice? An Analysis of Language Policy Documents at Swedish Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Björkman, Beyza

    2014-01-01

    This article presents an analysis and interpretation of language policy documents from eight Swedish universities with regard to intertextuality, authorship and content analysis of the notions of language practices and English as a lingua franca (ELF). The analysis is then linked to Spolsky's framework of language policy, namely language…

  20. A Policy Analysis of the Coast Guard's Existing Patient Satisfaction System and Recommendations for Improvement

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Coughlin, Kelly A

    2007-01-01

    .... This paper evaluates CG organizational demands, describes CG practice landscape, presents standards, reviews initial clinic process analysis, and evaluates the cost and criteria of proposed policy alternatives...

  1. Breast phyllodes tumor: a review of literature and a single center retrospective series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spitaleri, Gianluca; Toesca, Antonio; Botteri, Edoardo; Bottiglieri, Luca; Rotmensz, Nicole; Boselli, Sabrina; Sangalli, Claudia; Catania, Chiara; Toffalorio, Francesca; Noberasco, Cristina; Delmonte, Angelo; Luini, Alberto; Veronesi, Paolo; Colleoni, Marco; Viale, Giuseppe; Zurrida, Stefano; Goldhirsch, Aron; Veronesi, Umberto; De Pas, Tommaso

    2013-11-01

    Complete surgical resection is the standard treatment for localized breast phyllodes tumors. Post-surgical treatments are still a matter of debate. We carried out an overview of the literature to investigate the clinical outcome of patients with phyllodes tumor. A retrospective analysis of mono-institutional series has been included as well. We reviewed all the retrospective series reported from 1951 until April 2012. We analyzed cases treated at our institution from 1999 to 2010. Eighty-three articles (5530 patients; 1956 malignant tumors) were reviewed. Local recurrences were independent of histology. Distant recurrences were more frequent in the malignant tumors (22%). A total of 172 phyllodes tumors were included in the retrospective analysis. Prognosis of phyllodes tumors is excellent. There are no convincing data to recommend any adjuvant treatment after surgery. Molecular characterization may well provide new clues to permit identification of active treatments for the rare poor prognosis cases. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Series solution for continuous population models for single and interacting species by the homotopy analysis method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdy A. El-Tawil

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The homotopy analysis method (HAM is used to find approximate analytical solutions of continuous population models for single and interacting species. The homotopy analysis method contains the auxiliary parameter $hbar,$ which provides us with a simple way to adjust and control the convergence region of series solution. the solutions are compared with the numerical results obtained using NDSolve, an ordinary differential equation solver found in the Mathematica package and a good agreement is found. Also the solutions are compared with the available analytic results obtained by other methods and more accurate and convergent series solution found. The convergence region is also computed which shows the validity of the HAM solution. This method is reliable and manageable.

  3. Adventures in Modern Time Series Analysis: From the Sun to the Crab Nebula and Beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scargle, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    With the generation of long, precise, and finely sampled time series the Age of Digital Astronomy is uncovering and elucidating energetic dynamical processes throughout the Universe. Fulfilling these opportunities requires data effective analysis techniques rapidly and automatically implementing advanced concepts. The Time Series Explorer, under development in collaboration with Tom Loredo, provides tools ranging from simple but optimal histograms to time and frequency domain analysis for arbitrary data modes with any time sampling. Much of this development owes its existence to Joe Bredekamp and the encouragement he provided over several decades. Sample results for solar chromospheric activity, gamma-ray activity in the Crab Nebula, active galactic nuclei and gamma-ray bursts will be displayed.

  4. Integrating agricultural research and policy analysis: analytical framework and policy applications for bio-economic modelling.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruben, R.; Moll, H.; Kuyvenhoven, A.

    1998-01-01

    Interdisciplinary approaches to identify suitable incentives for enhancing sustainable natural resource use require an analytical framework that satisfies both practical purposes of policy support and disciplinary requirements regarding the specification of underlying technical and behavioural

  5. Dynamic mobility applications policy analysis : policy and institutional issues for intelligent network flow optimization (INFLO).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    The report documents policy considerations for the Intelligent Network Flow Optimization (INFLO) connected vehicle applications : bundle. INFLO aims to optimize network flow on freeways and arterials by informing motorists of existing and impen...

  6. Analysis of selected policies towards universal health coverage in Uganda: the policy implementation barometer protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongoro, Charles; Rutebemberwa, Elizeus; Twalo, Thembinkosi; Mwendera, Chikondi; Douglas, Mbuyiselo; Mukuru, Moses; Kasasa, Simon; Ssengooba, Freddie

    2018-01-01

    Policy implementation remains an under researched area in most low and middle income countries and it is not surprising that several policies are implemented without a systematic follow up of why and how they are working or failing. This study is part of a larger project called Supporting Policy Engagement for Evidence-based Decisions (SPEED) for Universal Health Coverage in Uganda. It seeks to support policymakers monitor the implementation of vital programmes for the realisation of policy goals for Universal Health Coverage. A Policy Implementation Barometer (PIB) is proposed as a mechanism to provide feedback to the decision makers about the implementation of a selected set of policy programmes at various implementation levels (macro, meso and micro level). The main objective is to establish the extent of implementation of malaria, family planning and emergency obstetric care policies in Uganda and use these results to support stakeholder engagements for corrective action. This is the first PIB survey of the three planned surveys and its specific objectives include: assessment of the perceived appropriateness of implementation programmes to the identified policy problems; determination of enablers and constraints to implementation of the policies; comparison of on-line and face-to-face administration of the PIB questionnaire among target respondents; and documentation of stakeholder responses to PIB findings with regard to corrective actions for implementation. The PIB will be a descriptive and analytical study employing mixed methods in which both quantitative and qualitative data will be systematically collected and analysed. The first wave will focus on 10 districts and primary data will be collected through interviews. The study seeks to interview 570 respondents of which 120 will be selected at national level with 40 based on each of the three policy domains, 200 from 10 randomly selected districts, and 250 from 50 facilities. Half of the respondents at

  7. A FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS OF EUROPEAN LABOUR MARKET POLICIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Graţiela Georgiana Carica

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to analyse European labour market policies and their integrated guidelines, by highlighting various measures that need to be adopted in order to increase labour productivity, with positive effects on long-term economic development. The paper methodizes the main conditions complied by structural reforms in order to encourage labour employment and the policies that frame a more efficient unemployment insurance system crucial to increase security while encouraging the unemployed to look for a job and to accept a job offer, respectively on flexicurity policies. We found that employment rates are generally associated with large expenses on labour market policies and with an increased number of participants to programs developed within these types of policies. The degree of influence and strong dependence between outcome and labour market policies are illustrated in various ways and discussed within the paper.

  8. Analysis on policies text of air pollution control in Beijing

    Science.gov (United States)

    ZHANG, Yujuan; WANG, Wen; ZHANG, Wei

    2017-04-01

    Air pollution is one of the most serious environmental problems, and it is also the inevitable result of the extensive economic development mode. The matter of air pollution in Beijing is becoming more and more serious since 2010, which has a great impact on the normal social production, living and human health. These hazards have been highly valued by the whole society. More than 30 years have been pasted since controlling the air pollution and the system of policies was relatively complete. These policies have improved the quality of atmospheric and prevented environment further deterioration. The policies performance is not obvious. It is urgent trouble to improve policy performance. This paper analyzes the 103 policies text of air pollution control in Beijing, and researches status, history and problems, and put forward suggestions on policy improvement and innovation at last.

  9. A HISTORICAL ANALYSIS OF THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina BALACEANU

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Agriculture is perceived by the EU as occupying a special place in its economic and social structure, because of its content and its relevance at the level of each individual. Consequently, the EU sustains that the relative poverty of a high proportion of its agricultural and rural population needs a protectionist price policy combined with a long term policy that would aim at its rural development, especially in the peripheral and poorly developed areas. Between EU policies Common Agricultural Policy is regarded as one of the most important. This not only because of the budget for the Union to finance this policy (which is about 50% of the total budget the number of people affected and territory involved, but also the historical importance of delegated sovereign attributes EU Member States to the decision. The importance of the Common Agricultural Policy derives of close links with the single market and economic and monetary union, two key areas of European integration.

  10. Chernobyl effects on domestic and inbound tourism in Sweden. A time series analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hultkrantz, L. [Department of Economics, University of Uppsala, Uppsala (Sweden); Olsson, C. [Department of Economics, Umeaa University, Umeaa (Sweden)

    1997-03-01

    This paper estimates the impact of the Chernobyl nuclear accident on domestic and international tourism in Sweden. From ARIMA time series forecasts, outlier search, and intervention analysis based on regional monthly accommodation data from 1978-1989, no effect on domestic tourism is found. However, there is an enduring deterrence effect on incoming tourism. The loss of gross revenue from incoming tourism because of the Chernobyl accident, is estimated to 2.5 billion SEK. 5 figs., 7 tabs., 1 appendix, 27 refs.

  11. Chernobyl effects on domestic and inbound tourism in Sweden. A time series analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hultkrantz, L.; Olsson, C.

    1997-01-01

    This paper estimates the impact of the Chernobyl nuclear accident on domestic and international tourism in Sweden. From ARIMA time series forecasts, outlier search, and intervention analysis based on regional monthly accommodation data from 1978-1989, no effect on domestic tourism is found. However, there is an enduring deterrence effect on incoming tourism. The loss of gross revenue from incoming tourism because of the Chernobyl accident, is estimated to 2.5 billion SEK. 5 figs., 7 tabs., 1 appendix, 27 refs

  12. Time-series analysis of climatologic measurements: a method to distinguish future climatic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duband, D.

    1992-01-01

    Time-series analysis of climatic parameters as air temperature, rivers flow rate, lakes or seas level is an indispensable basis to detect a possible significant climatic change. These observations, when they are carefully analyzed and criticized, constitute the necessary reference for testing and validation numerical climatic models which try to simulate the physical and dynamical process of the ocean-atmosphere couple, taking continents into account. 32 refs., 13 figs

  13. On-line condition monitoring of nuclear systems via symbolic time series analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajagopalan, V.; Ray, A.; Garcia, H. E.

    2006-01-01

    This paper provides a symbolic time series analysis approach to fault diagnostics and condition monitoring. The proposed technique is built upon concepts from wavelet theory, symbolic dynamics and pattern recognition. Various aspects of the methodology such as wavelet selection, choice of alphabet and determination of depth of D-Markov Machine are explained in the paper. The technique is validated with experiments performed in a Machine Condition Monitoring (MCM) test bed at the Idaho National Laboratory. (authors)

  14. A 20-year study of wintering common crane fluctuations using time series analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Bautista, Luis M.; Alonso López, Juan C.; Alonso López, Javier A.

    1992-01-01

    The numbers of common cranes (Grus grus) staging and wintering at Gallocanta lake, northeastern Spain, have increased throughout the period 1970-90. Consequently, we modelled the use of this area by cranes using Box-Jenkins Time Series Analysis to evaluate the influence of local food availability, duck hunting, and habitat and food conditions at other more traditional crane wintering areas in southwestern Spain on Gallocanta crane numbers. Food availability was not correlated with crane numbe...

  15. Monetary policy implications of financial innovation: In-depth analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Bernoth, Kerstin; Gebauer, Stefan; Schäfer, Dorothea

    2017-01-01

    In this policy brief, we argue that the financial innovations triggered by the FinTech industry have the potential to affect the transmission of monetary policy as well as the informational content of important monetary indicators. The growing FinTech industry could contribute substantially to the emergence of nonbank finance as a substitute for traditional commercial bank finance. While the overall effect of nonbank finance on monetary policy transmission is not yet clear, we argue that regu...

  16. Deforestation, Leakage and Avoided Deforestation Policies: A Spatial Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Philippe Delacote; Elizabeth J. Z. Robinson; Sébastien Roussel

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyses the impact of several avoided deforestation policies within a patchy forested landscape. Central is the idea that one neighbour's deforestation actions may impact the returns to deforestation in nearby patches. We determine the impact of each policy in terms of avoided deforestation and leakage levels at the landscape scale through modelling and simulations. Avoided deforestation policies at a landscape level are respectively: two Payment for Environmental Services (PES) p...

  17. The Fourier decomposition method for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Pushpendra; Joshi, Shiv Dutt; Patney, Rakesh Kumar; Saha, Kaushik

    2017-03-01

    for many decades, there has been a general perception in the literature that Fourier methods are not suitable for the analysis of nonlinear and non-stationary data. In this paper, we propose a novel and adaptive Fourier decomposition method (FDM), based on the Fourier theory, and demonstrate its efficacy for the analysis of nonlinear and non-stationary time series. The proposed FDM decomposes any data into a small number of 'Fourier intrinsic band functions' (FIBFs). The FDM presents a generalized Fourier expansion with variable amplitudes and variable frequencies of a time series by the Fourier method itself. We propose an idea of zero-phase filter bank-based multivariate FDM (MFDM), for the analysis of multivariate nonlinear and non-stationary time series, using the FDM. We also present an algorithm to obtain cut-off frequencies for MFDM. The proposed MFDM generates a finite number of band-limited multivariate FIBFs (MFIBFs). The MFDM preserves some intrinsic physical properties of the multivariate data, such as scale alignment, trend and instantaneous frequency. The proposed methods provide a time-frequency-energy (TFE) distribution that reveals the intrinsic structure of a data. Numerical computations and simulations have been carried out and comparison is made with the empirical mode decomposition algorithms.

  18. The physiology analysis system: an integrated approach for warehousing, management and analysis of time-series physiology data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, Thomas M; Bawa, Gagandeep; Kumar, Kamal; Reifman, Jaques

    2007-04-01

    The physiology analysis system (PAS) was developed as a resource to support the efficient warehousing, management, and analysis of physiology data, particularly, continuous time-series data that may be extensive, of variable quality, and distributed across many files. The PAS incorporates time-series data collected by many types of data-acquisition devices, and it is designed to free users from data management burdens. This Web-based system allows both discrete (attribute) and time-series (ordered) data to be manipulated, visualized, and analyzed via a client's Web browser. All processes occur on a server, so that the client does not have to download data or any application programs, and the PAS is independent of the client's computer operating system. The PAS contains a library of functions, written in different computer languages that the client can add to and use to perform specific data operations. Functions from the library are sequentially inserted into a function chain-based logical structure to construct sophisticated data operators from simple function building blocks, affording ad hoc query and analysis of time-series data. These features support advanced mining of physiology data.

  19. Applications of time-series analysis to mood fluctuations in bipolar disorder to promote treatment innovation: a case series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, E A; Bonsall, M B; Hales, S A; Mitchell, H; Renner, F; Blackwell, S E; Watson, P; Goodwin, G M; Di Simplicio, M

    2016-01-01

    Treatment innovation for bipolar disorder has been hampered by a lack of techniques to capture a hallmark symptom: ongoing mood instability. Mood swings persist during remission from acute mood episodes and impair daily functioning. The last significant treatment advance remains Lithium (in the 1970s), which aids only the minority of patients. There is no accepted way to establish proof of concept for a new mood-stabilizing treatment. We suggest that combining insights from mood measurement with applied mathematics may provide a step change: repeated daily mood measurement (depression) over a short time frame (1 month) can create individual bipolar mood instability profiles. A time-series approach allows comparison of mood instability pre- and post-treatment. We test a new imagery-focused cognitive therapy treatment approach (MAPP; Mood Action Psychology Programme) targeting a driver of mood instability, and apply these measurement methods in a non-concurrent multiple baseline design case series of 14 patients with bipolar disorder. Weekly mood monitoring and treatment target data improved for the whole sample combined. Time-series analyses of daily mood data, sampled remotely (mobile phone/Internet) for 28 days pre- and post-treatment, demonstrated improvements in individuals' mood stability for 11 of 14 patients. Thus the findings offer preliminary support for a new imagery-focused treatment approach. They also indicate a step in treatment innovation without the requirement for trials in illness episodes or relapse prevention. Importantly, daily measurement offers a description of mood instability at the individual patient level in a clinically meaningful time frame. This costly, chronic and disabling mental illness demands innovation in both treatment approaches (whether pharmacological or psychological) and measurement tool: this work indicates that daily measurements can be used to detect improvement in individual mood stability for treatment innovation (MAPP

  20. Analysis of Implementation The Policy on Malaria Elimination in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Betty Roosihermiatie

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: As a tropic country Indonesia still faces malaria problems. In Asean, indonesia is one of three countries with the highest malaria morbidity. In 2007, 396 (80% of 495 districts/municipalities in indonesia are malaria. In 2009 the government issued a decree of the minister of health No 293 on malaria elimination. The study aimed to analyze the implementation decree of Ministry of Health No. 293/2009 on malaria elimination. Methods: It was a descriptive study. The study was conducted in 4 provinces, and 4 districts based on malaria elimination stages as in Bali province and Karangasem district, Riau islands province and Bintan district, West Nusa Tenggara province and west Lombok district, and Maluku province and South Halmahera district. The stakeholders were Heads and malaria programmers at province/district Health Offices and the related programs. Data were collected by focus group discussion and secondary data were taken. Data were collected by focus group discussion and secondary data. Analysis for Ministry of Health decree No.293 year 2009 on 1 Comphrehend, 2 Implementation, and, 3 Comittment, 4 Innovation intervension to support malaria elimination, 5 Sustainability of activity community empowerment, 6 Proportion of budget. Results: showed there was district that had not issued local policy on malaria elimination, the implementation with comittment especially that health centers in areas under study corfi rm diagnose by laboratory examination and malaria treatment by Artemisin Combined Therapy (ACT, although there were still treatment to clinical malaria, innovation activities were of bersifat local spesifi c, and reward for Juru Malaria Desa or malaria cadre to increase malaria suspect case detection, and with district budget for malaria program ranged 0,95-5,6% of the total budget. Recomendations: It suggested to advocate all malaria endemic areas to issue local policy on malaria elimination, decide intervension of the

  1. Early detection of metabolic and energy disorders by thermal time series stochastic complexity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutaif, N A; Palazzo, R; Gontijo, J A R

    2014-01-01

    Maintenance of thermal homeostasis in rats fed a high-fat diet (HFD) is associated with changes in their thermal balance. The thermodynamic relationship between heat dissipation and energy storage is altered by the ingestion of high-energy diet content. Observation of thermal registers of core temperature behavior, in humans and rodents, permits identification of some characteristics of time series, such as autoreference and stationarity that fit adequately to a stochastic analysis. To identify this change, we used, for the first time, a stochastic autoregressive model, the concepts of which match those associated with physiological systems involved and applied in male HFD rats compared with their appropriate standard food intake age-matched male controls (n=7 per group). By analyzing a recorded temperature time series, we were able to identify when thermal homeostasis would be affected by a new diet. The autoregressive time series model (AR model) was used to predict the occurrence of thermal homeostasis, and this model proved to be very effective in distinguishing such a physiological disorder. Thus, we infer from the results of our study that maximum entropy distribution as a means for stochastic characterization of temperature time series registers may be established as an important and early tool to aid in the diagnosis and prevention of metabolic diseases due to their ability to detect small variations in thermal profile.

  2. Early detection of metabolic and energy disorders by thermal time series stochastic complexity analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lutaif, N.A. [Departamento de Clínica Médica, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, SP (Brazil); Palazzo, R. Jr [Departamento de Telemática, Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e Computação, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, SP (Brazil); Gontijo, J.A.R. [Departamento de Clínica Médica, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, SP (Brazil)

    2014-01-17

    Maintenance of thermal homeostasis in rats fed a high-fat diet (HFD) is associated with changes in their thermal balance. The thermodynamic relationship between heat dissipation and energy storage is altered by the ingestion of high-energy diet content. Observation of thermal registers of core temperature behavior, in humans and rodents, permits identification of some characteristics of time series, such as autoreference and stationarity that fit adequately to a stochastic analysis. To identify this change, we used, for the first time, a stochastic autoregressive model, the concepts of which match those associated with physiological systems involved and applied in male HFD rats compared with their appropriate standard food intake age-matched male controls (n=7 per group). By analyzing a recorded temperature time series, we were able to identify when thermal homeostasis would be affected by a new diet. The autoregressive time series model (AR model) was used to predict the occurrence of thermal homeostasis, and this model proved to be very effective in distinguishing such a physiological disorder. Thus, we infer from the results of our study that maximum entropy distribution as a means for stochastic characterization of temperature time series registers may be established as an important and early tool to aid in the diagnosis and prevention of metabolic diseases due to their ability to detect small variations in thermal profile.

  3. Spatial analysis of precipitation time series over the Upper Indus Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latif, Yasir; Yaoming, Ma; Yaseen, Muhammad

    2018-01-01

    The upper Indus basin (UIB) holds one of the most substantial river systems in the world, contributing roughly half of the available surface water in Pakistan. This water provides necessary support for agriculture, domestic consumption, and hydropower generation; all critical for a stable economy in Pakistan. This study has identified trends, analyzed variability, and assessed changes in both annual and seasonal precipitation during four time series, identified herein as: (first) 1961-2013, (second) 1971-2013, (third) 1981-2013, and (fourth) 1991-2013, over the UIB. This study investigated spatial characteristics of the precipitation time series over 15 weather stations and provides strong evidence of annual precipitation by determining significant trends at 6 stations (Astore, Chilas, Dir, Drosh, Gupis, and Kakul) out of the 15 studied stations, revealing a significant negative trend during the fourth time series. Our study also showed significantly increased precipitation at Bunji, Chitral, and Skardu, whereas such trends at the rest of the stations appear insignificant. Moreover, our study found that seasonal precipitation decreased at some locations (at a high level of significance), as well as periods of scarce precipitation during all four seasons. The observed decreases in precipitation appear stronger and more significant in autumn; having 10 stations exhibiting decreasing precipitation during the fourth time series, with respect to time and space. Furthermore, the observed decreases in precipitation appear robust and more significant for regions at high elevation (>1300 m). This analysis concludes that decreasing precipitation dominated the UIB, both temporally and spatially including in the higher areas.

  4. Early detection of metabolic and energy disorders by thermal time series stochastic complexity analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.A. Lutaif

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Maintenance of thermal homeostasis in rats fed a high-fat diet (HFD is associated with changes in their thermal balance. The thermodynamic relationship between heat dissipation and energy storage is altered by the ingestion of high-energy diet content. Observation of thermal registers of core temperature behavior, in humans and rodents, permits identification of some characteristics of time series, such as autoreference and stationarity that fit adequately to a stochastic analysis. To identify this change, we used, for the first time, a stochastic autoregressive model, the concepts of which match those associated with physiological systems involved and applied in male HFD rats compared with their appropriate standard food intake age-matched male controls (n=7 per group. By analyzing a recorded temperature time series, we were able to identify when thermal homeostasis would be affected by a new diet. The autoregressive time series model (AR model was used to predict the occurrence of thermal homeostasis, and this model proved to be very effective in distinguishing such a physiological disorder. Thus, we infer from the results of our study that maximum entropy distribution as a means for stochastic characterization of temperature time series registers may be established as an important and early tool to aid in the diagnosis and prevention of metabolic diseases due to their ability to detect small variations in thermal profile.

  5. Early detection of metabolic and energy disorders by thermal time series stochastic complexity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lutaif, N.A.; Palazzo, R. Jr; Gontijo, J.A.R.

    2014-01-01

    Maintenance of thermal homeostasis in rats fed a high-fat diet (HFD) is associated with changes in their thermal balance. The thermodynamic relationship between heat dissipation and energy storage is altered by the ingestion of high-energy diet content. Observation of thermal registers of core temperature behavior, in humans and rodents, permits identification of some characteristics of time series, such as autoreference and stationarity that fit adequately to a stochastic analysis. To identify this change, we used, for the first time, a stochastic autoregressive model, the concepts of which match those associated with physiological systems involved and applied in male HFD rats compared with their appropriate standard food intake age-matched male controls (n=7 per group). By analyzing a recorded temperature time series, we were able to identify when thermal homeostasis would be affected by a new diet. The autoregressive time series model (AR model) was used to predict the occurrence of thermal homeostasis, and this model proved to be very effective in distinguishing such a physiological disorder. Thus, we infer from the results of our study that maximum entropy distribution as a means for stochastic characterization of temperature time series registers may be established as an important and early tool to aid in the diagnosis and prevention of metabolic diseases due to their ability to detect small variations in thermal profile

  6. Effective low-order models for atmospheric dynamics and time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gluhovsky, Alexander; Grady, Kevin

    2016-02-01

    The paper focuses on two interrelated problems: developing physically sound low-order models (LOMs) for atmospheric dynamics and employing them as novel time-series models to overcome deficiencies in current atmospheric time series analysis. The first problem is warranted since arbitrary truncations in the Galerkin method (commonly used to derive LOMs) may result in LOMs that violate fundamental conservation properties of the original equations, causing unphysical behaviors such as unbounded solutions. In contrast, the LOMs we offer (G-models) are energy conserving, and some retain the Hamiltonian structure of the original equations. This work examines LOMs from recent publications to show that all of them that are physically sound can be converted to G-models, while those that cannot lack energy conservation. Further, motivated by recent progress in statistical properties of dynamical systems, we explore G-models for a new role of atmospheric time series models as their data generating mechanisms are well in line with atmospheric dynamics. Currently used time series models, however, do not specifically utilize the physics of the governing equations and involve strong statistical assumptions rarely met in real data.

  7. Environmental policy, assessment and communication

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Canter, D.; Krampen, M.; Stea, D.

    1988-01-01

    This second volume in the Gower ethnoscapes Series explores the realm of environmental policy and presents analysis of three major public policy issues: growing public concern over environmental factors; growing awareness of the relationship between environment, crime and adolescent development; and increased environmental awareness in relation to population growth and housing needs (especially housing for the elderly and mass housing for third world nations).

  8. Probabilistic economic analysis of green roof benefits for policy design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, C.; Adriaens, P.; Talbot, B.

    2006-01-01

    The installation costs of green roofs continue to deter widespread use of green roof technology. Analyses of the boundary conditions for the cost differential between a green roof and a conventional roof are usually compared to environmental benefits such as storm water reduction and building energy savings. However, evidence is emerging that green roofs may play a role in urban air quality improvement. This paper discussed a methodology for developing probabilistic ranges of benefits and cost analyses. A probabilistic analysis was conducted to prepare a generalized cost-benefit analysis for application to a range of green roof projects. Environmental benefits of roof greening were quantified on a per unit surface area to assess environmental impact at the building scale. Parameters included conventional and green roof installation costs; storm water fees and fee reductions for green roofs; energy costs due to heat flux and the resultant savings through the installation of a green roof and the additional economic valuation of the public health benefits due to air pollution mitigation. Results were then integrated into an economic model to determine the length of time required for a return on investment in a green roof, assuming that a traditional roof would require replacement after 20 years. A net present value analysis was performed for an average-sized university roof. Results of the study showed that a valuation of environmental benefits can reduce the time required for a return on investment in a moderately priced green roof. While reduced installation costs reduced the time required for a return on investment, optimizing the green roof system for maximum environmental benefit had a greater potential to provide a higher return. It was concluded that the benefit of improved air quality should not be ignored by green roof policy-makers as a valuation tool. 10 refs., 3 tabs., 1 fig

  9. Reference manual for generation and analysis of Habitat Time Series: version II

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milhous, Robert T.; Bartholow, John M.; Updike, Marlys A.; Moos, Alan R.

    1990-01-01

    The selection of an instream flow requirement for water resource management often requires the review of how the physical habitat changes through time. This review is referred to as 'Time Series Analysis." The Tune Series Library (fSLIB) is a group of programs to enter, transform, analyze, and display time series data for use in stream habitat assessment. A time series may be defined as a sequence of data recorded or calculated over time. Examples might be historical monthly flow, predicted monthly weighted usable area, daily electrical power generation, annual irrigation diversion, and so forth. The time series can be analyzed, both descriptively and analytically, to understand the importance of the variation in the events over time. This is especially useful in the development of instream flow needs based on habitat availability. The TSLIB group of programs assumes that you have an adequate study plan to guide you in your analysis. You need to already have knowledge about such things as time period and time step, species and life stages to consider, and appropriate comparisons or statistics to be produced and displayed or tabulated. Knowing your destination, you must first evaluate whether TSLIB can get you there. Remember, data are not answers. This publication is a reference manual to TSLIB and is intended to be a guide to the process of using the various programs in TSLIB. This manual is essentially limited to the hands-on use of the various programs. a TSLIB use interface program (called RTSM) has been developed to provide an integrated working environment where the use has a brief on-line description of each TSLIB program with the capability to run the TSLIB program while in the user interface. For information on the RTSM program, refer to Appendix F. Before applying the computer models described herein, it is recommended that the user enroll in the short course "Problem Solving with the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM)." This course is offered

  10. Assessing the Short-Term Effects on Output of Changes in Federal Fiscal Policies (Working Paper Series)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Journal: Economic Policy, 4 (2): 28–45. Chari, V. V., Patrick J. Kehoe, and Ellen R. McGrattan. 2009. “New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for...Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 4 (1): 22–68. Cogan, John F., Tobias Cwik, John B. Taylor, and Volker Wieland. 2010. “New Keynesian Versus Old... Keynesian Government Spending Multipliers.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 34 (3): 281–295. Cogan, John F. and John B. Taylor. 2010. “What

  11. case series

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    Conclusions: The concept of “case series” is not well defined in the literature and does not reflect a specific research design. We suggest that a case series should have more than four patients while four paitents or less should be reported individually as case reports. Key words: Case report, case series, concept analysis, ...

  12. Spectral analysis of uneven time series of geological variables; Analisis espectral de series temporales de variables geologicas con muestreo irregular

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pardo-Iguzquiza, E.; Rodriguez-Tovar, F. J.

    2013-06-01

    In geosciences the sampling of a time series tends to afford uneven results, sometimes because the sampling itself is random or because of hiatuses or even completely missing data or due to difficulties involved in the conversion of data from a spatial to a time scale when the sedimentation rate was not constant. Whatever the case, the best solution does not lie in interpolation but rather in resorting to a method that deals with the irregular data. We show here how the use of the smoothed Lomb-Scargle periodogram is both a practical and efficient choice. We describe the effects on the estimated power spectrum of the type of irregular sampling, the number of data, interpolation, and the presence of drift. We propose the permutation test as being an efficient way of calculating statistical confidence levels. By applying the Lomb-Scargle periodogram to a synthetic series with a known spectral content we are able to confirm the validity of this method in the face of the difficulties mentioned above. A case study with real data, including hiatuses, representing the thickness of the annual banding in a stalagmite, is chosen to demonstrate an application using the statistical and physical interpretation of spectral peaks. (Author)

  13. Developing effective policy strategies to retain health workers in rural Bangladesh: a policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rawal, Lal B; Joarder, Taufique; Islam, Sheikh Md Shariful; Uddin, Aftab; Ahmed, Syed Masud

    2015-05-20

    Retention of human resources for health (HRH), particularly physicians and nurses in rural and remote areas, is a major problem in Bangladesh. We reviewed relevant policies and provisions in relation to HRH aiming to develop appropriate rural retention strategies in Bangladesh. We conducted a document review, thorough search and review of relevant literature published from 1971 through May 2013, key informant interviews with policy elites (health policy makers, managers, researchers, etc.), and a roundtable discussion with key stakeholders and policy makers. We used the World Health Organization's (WHO's) guidelines as an analytical matrix to examine the rural retention policies under 4 domains, i) educational, ii) regulatory, iii) financial, and iv) professional and personal development, and 16 sub-domains. Over the past four decades, Bangladesh has developed and implemented a number of health-related policies and provisions concerning retention of HRH. The district quota system in admissions is in practice to improve geographical representation of the students. Students of special background including children of freedom fighters and tribal population have allocated quotas. In private medical and nursing schools, at least 5% of seats are allocated for scholarships. Medical education has a provision for clinical rotation in rural health facilities. Further, in the public sector, every newly recruited medical doctor must serve at least 2 years at the upazila level. To encourage serving in hard-to-reach areas, particularly in three Hill Tract districts of Chittagong division, the government provides an additional 33% of the basic salary, but not exceeding US$ 38 per month. This amount is not attractive enough, and such provision is absent for those working in other rural areas. Although the government has career development and promotion plans for doctors and nurses, these plans are often not clearly specified and not implemented effectively. The government is

  14. Institutional Support : Institute for Policy Analysis and Research ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Au départ la division tanzanienne du Réseau d'études sur la politique technologique en Afrique (African Technology Policy Studies Network), et ce, depuis 1984, ATPS-Tanzania est devenu... Voir davantageSoutien institutionnel à African Technology Policy Studies - Tanzania (ATPS-Tanzania). Nous finançons des ...

  15. Avian Influenza Policy Analysis | CRDI - Centre de recherches pour ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This project aims to enhance understanding of national policy-making process with respect to two critical issues: poultry vaccination and antiviral drugs for humans. Researchers will examine the content, context and process of antiviral drug and poultry vaccination policies in Indonesia, Thailand and Viet Nam, comparing ...

  16. Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Policy Shocks and Current Account ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study examines the effects of fiscal policy shocks on the current account as well as the dynamic interactions among fiscal policy shocks and current account with the other macroeconomic variables: real output, real interest rate and exchange rate for Nigeria over the periods 1980:1-2010:4. The identification of fiscal ...

  17. Analysis of Spanish Policies for the Integration of Immigrant Schoolchildren

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Usarralde, María Jesús; Yanes-Cabrera, Cristina; Llevot-Calvet, Nuria

    2016-01-01

    The Organic Law on the Improvement of the National Education Quality ("Ley Orgánica de Reforma de la Calidad Educativa") readdressed one of the most significant educational issues: educational policies related to immigrant students. Therefore, this is an appropriate moment to evaluate these types of policies in three singular Spanish…

  18. Analysis of Ethiopia's national ICT policy and strategy: insights into ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The trend shows that the national ICT policy need to focus broadly on core and emerging issues that are crucial for ICT ecosystem such as infrastructure, services, applications, universal access, cyber security, social media, and users. Broadband infrastructure development is considered as key intervention in the policy.

  19. Critical analysis of the policy practice of mathematics education in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ensuring a smooth mathematics education programme requires the formulation and implementation of appropriate instructional policies. This study is a survey of some practices of the instructional policies and their influence on mathematics education. Completed Basic School Annual Census (CBSAC) forms and ...

  20. Analysis of National Policies for Entrepreneurship Education in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiaozhou

    2012-01-01

    This article reviews major national policies and strategies adopted by the Chinese central government to promote entrepreneurship education and also describes the current social and economic background to reveal the motives of entrepreneurship education in mainland China. The core of this article sums up the content of national policies on…

  1. Economic analysis of water conservation policies in the Texas Panhandle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Due to declining water availability from the Ogallala Aquifer, management policy alternatives for extending the life of the aquifer to sustain rural economies in the Texas Panhandle are evaluated. The study concludes that water conservation policies for the region significantly impact crop mix, reso...

  2. Policy Analysis on Growth and Employment - PAGE II | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This project by the Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP) will support quality research, capacity development, and policy engagement, with a focus on inclusive growth in low-income developing countries. It will generate new knowledge and evidence relevant to the creation of jobs, productive employment for young people, ...

  3. Early Educational Provision--Emphasised in Education Policy Reforms in Norway? An Analysis of Education Policy Documents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjørnsrud, Halvor; Nilsen, Sven

    2014-01-01

    The article analyses how the intentions of early provision in Norwegian schools have been expressed in the education policy reforms in Norway from the 1970s to the present day. The first area deals with the intentions that most explicitly cover early provision; prevention, early detection and intervention. The second area of analysis relates to…

  4. Economic analysis of Brazilian policies for energy efficient electric motors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrade, Cássio Tersandro de Castro; Pontes, Ricardo Silva Thé

    2017-01-01

    Brazil is leading several energy efficiency initiatives and has ambitious goals for 2030, according to the Brazilian National Energy Plan 2030. One of the main initiatives is the minimum efficiency performance standards (MEPS) program for energy-driven equipment and the electric motors appear as the most significant one (49% share of the total electricity consumption). The MEPS levels set new grades for efficiency, and then manufacturers and consumers have to conform to the new products and costs. Policy makers have to economically assess the effects of these MEPS in order to maintain the market stability. Since the benefits of this program come from future energy savings, this cost-effective analysis has to consider the parameters uncertainty and the results should reinforce the market players’ confidence. Thus, the goal of this work is, first, to analyze the economic viability of the MEPS transitions in Brazil considering the uncertainty of the parameters involved and then, to estimate the effects of this program on the energy savings goals for 2030. At the end, we also verify whether this investment in energy efficiency is competitive with other forms of investments in energy. - Highlights: • A cost-effectiveness method with uncertainty for efficiency program is presented. • Savings from electric motors MEPS program makes the 2030 Brazilian goals possible. • Electric motors MEPS program cost-effectiveness in Brazil is confirmed. • Saved energy cost from efficiency improvement is a competitive energy investment.

  5. Analysis of energy end-use efficiency policy in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collado, Rocío Román; Díaz, María Teresa Sanz

    2017-01-01

    The implementation of saving measures and energy efficiency entails the need to evaluate achievements in terms of energy saving and spending. This paper aims at analysing the effectiveness and economic efficiency of energy saving measures implemented in the Energy Savings and Efficiency Action Plan (2008–2012) (EAP4+) in Spain for 2010. The lack of assessment related to energy savings achieved and public spending allocated by the EAP4+ justifies the need of this analysis. The results show that the transport and building sectors seem to be the most important, from the energy efficiency perspective. Although they did not reach the direct energy savings that were expected, there is scope for reduction with the appropriate energy measures. For the effectiveness indicator, the best performance are achieved by public service, agricultural and fisheries and building sectors, while in terms of energy efficiency per monetary unit, the best results are achieved by transport, industry and agriculture sectors. Authors conclude that it is necessary that central, regional and local administrations will get involved, in order to get better estimates of the energy savings achieved and thus to affect the design of future energy efficiency measures at the lowest possible cost to the citizens. - Highlights: • Energy end-use efficiency policy is analysed in terms of energy savings and spending. • The energy savings achieved by some measures are not always provided. • The total energy savings achieved by transport and building sectors are large. • Different levels of administration should get involved in estimating energy savings.

  6. Analysis of National and EU Policies Supporting CSR and Impact

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moon, Jeremy; Slager, Rieneke; Anastasiadis, Stephanos

    The purpose of this report is to provide an overview of the place of governmental policies in encouraging and supporting Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and their effectiveness therein. By: Moon, Jeremy - Slager, Rieneke - Brunn, Christoph - Hardi, Peter - Steen Knudsen, Jette - 2012 The very...... but it is also increasingly explicit in government policies (Matten and Moon 2008). In other words, it is not simply that government policies structure the environment in which companies choose to behave responsibly or otherwise, but also that policies are precisely designed to encourage such behaviour...... society organizations); to mandate (e.g. for accounting or reporting standards). However, the trajectories between and combinations of these policy types also vary among countries (see below). Collectively they tend to reflect broader trends in new governance which stress participation, networks...

  7. Analysis of nuclear issue and development of policy alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Won, Byungchool; Lee, Youngjoon; Yun, Sungwon; Yun, Keehwan; Ko, Wonil

    2012-08-01

    ? Promoted amicably passing a resolution on a general meeting of Atomic Energy Promotion Commission through the preliminary review and opinion gathering ? Mutual understanding and forming a social consensus on nuclear related issues through R and D reporting about the SMART, Decommission and Dis, Future Nuclear System etc Ο Promoted strengthening the work related to the nuclear policy through discovering the 8 policy initiatives prioritized Ο Analyzed the policy process as well as previous research results related to spent fuel for establishment of spent-fuel policy and presented the methods for legislation Ο Suggested the establishment and multi-step implementation strategies of 'Nuclear educational hurb center' Ο Germany, Switzerland, Belgium returned to their former phase-out strategies, except for these three countries, did not change nuclear promotion policies Ο Democratic United Party is currently taking the opposite stance on NPP but it is necessary to make an effort to analyze current domestic energy circumstances on objective and rational grounds

  8. Nonlinear time series analysis of food intake in the dab and the rainbow trout.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, J W; Ruohonen, K; Grove, D J; Hammerstein, A

    2007-04-21

    Evidence suggests that dab and rainbow trout are able to quickly adjust their food intake to an appropriate level when offered novel diets. In addition day-to-day and meal-to-meal food intake varies greatly and meal timing is plastic. Why this is the case is not clear: Food intake in fish is influenced by many factors, however the hierarchy and mechanisms by which these interact is not yet fully understood. A model of food intake may be helpful to understand these phenomena; to determine model type it is necessary to understand the qualitative nature of food intake. Food intake can be regarded as an autoregressive (AR) time series, as the amount of food eaten at time t will be influenced by previous meals, and this allows food intake to be considered using time series analyses. Here, time series data were analysed using nonlinear techniques to obtain qualitative information from which evidence for the hierarchy of mechanisms controlling food intake may be drawn. Time series were obtained for a group of dab and individuals and a group of rainbow trout for analysis. Surrogate data sets were generated to test several null hypotheses describing linear processes and all proved significantly different to the real data, suggesting nonlinear dynamics. Examination of topography and recurrence diagrams suggested that all series were deterministic and non-stationary. The point correlation dimension (PD2i) suggested low-dimensional dynamics. Our findings suggest therefore that any model of appetite should create output that is deterministic, non-stationary, low-dimensional and having nonlinear dynamics.

  9. Comparative performance analysis of shunt and series passive filter for LED lamp

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarwono, Edi; Facta, Mochammad; Handoko, Susatyo

    2018-03-01

    Light Emitting Diode lamp or LED lamp nowadays is widely used by consumers as a new innovation in the lighting technologies due to its energy saving for low power consumption lamps for brighter light intensity. How ever, the LED lamp produce an electric pollutant known as harmonics. The harmonics is generated by rectifier as part of LED lamp circuit. The present of harmonics in current or voltage has made the source waveform from the grid is distorted. This distortion may cause inacurrate measurement, mall function, and excessive heating for any element at the grid. This paper present an analysis work of shunt and series filters to suppress the harmonics generated by the LED lamp circuit. The work was initiated by conducting several tests to investigate the harmonic content of voltage and currents. The measurements in this work were carried out by using HIOKI Power Quality Analyzer 3197. The measurement results showed that the harmonics current of tested LED lamps were above the limit of IEEE standard 519-2014. Based on the measurement results shunt and series filters were constructed as low pass filters. The bode analysis were appled during construction and prediction of the filters performance. Based on experimental results, the application of shunt filter at input side of LED lamp has reduced THD current up to 88%. On the other hand, the series filter has significantly reduced THD current up to 92%.

  10. A Novel Damage Detection Algorithm using Time-Series Analysis-Based Blind Source Separation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sadhu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a novel damage detection algorithm is developed based on blind source separation in conjunction with time-series analysis. Blind source separation (BSS, is a powerful signal processing tool that is used to identify the modal responses and mode shapes of a vibrating structure using only the knowledge of responses. In the proposed method, BSS is first employed to estimate the modal response using the vibration measurements. Time-series analysis is then performed to characterize the mono-component modal responses and successively the resulting time-series models are utilized for one-step ahead prediction of the modal response. With the occurrence of newer measurements containing the signature of damaged system, a variance-based damage index is used to identify the damage instant. Once the damage instant is identified, the damaged and undamaged modal parameters of the system are estimated in an adaptive fashion. The proposed method solves classical damage detection issues including the identification of damage instant, location as well as the severity of damage. The proposed damage detection algorithm is verified using extensive numerical simulations followed by the full scale study of UCLA Factor building using the measured responses under Parkfield earthquake.

  11. Water quality management using statistical analysis and time-series prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parmar, Kulwinder Singh; Bhardwaj, Rashmi

    2014-12-01

    This paper deals with water quality management using statistical analysis and time-series prediction model. The monthly variation of water quality standards has been used to compare statistical mean, median, mode, standard deviation, kurtosis, skewness, coefficient of variation at Yamuna River. Model validated using R-squared, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, maximum absolute percentage error, mean absolute error, maximum absolute error, normalized Bayesian information criterion, Ljung-Box analysis, predicted value and confidence limits. Using auto regressive integrated moving average model, future water quality parameters values have been estimated. It is observed that predictive model is useful at 95 % confidence limits and curve is platykurtic for potential of hydrogen (pH), free ammonia, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, dissolved oxygen, water temperature (WT); leptokurtic for chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand. Also, it is observed that predicted series is close to the original series which provides a perfect fit. All parameters except pH and WT cross the prescribed limits of the World Health Organization /United States Environmental Protection Agency, and thus water is not fit for drinking, agriculture and industrial use.

  12. BSMART: a Matlab/C toolbox for analysis of multichannel neural time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Jie; Xu, Lei; Bressler, Steven L; Ding, Mingzhou; Liang, Hualou

    2008-10-01

    We have developed a Matlab/C toolbox, Brain-SMART (System for Multivariate AutoRegressive Time series, or BSMART), for spectral analysis of continuous neural time series data recorded simultaneously from multiple sensors. Available functions include time series data importing/exporting, preprocessing (normalization and trend removal), AutoRegressive (AR) modeling (multivariate/bivariate model estimation and validation), spectral quantity estimation (auto power, coherence and Granger causality spectra), network analysis (including coherence and causality networks) and visualization (including data, power, coherence and causality views). The tools for investigating causal network structures in respect of frequency bands are unique functions provided by this toolbox. All functionality has been integrated into a simple and user-friendly graphical user interface (GUI) environment designed for easy accessibility. Although we have tested the toolbox only on Windows and Linux operating systems, BSMART itself is system independent. This toolbox is freely available (http://www.brain-smart.org) under the GNU public license for open source development.

  13. Inquiry into Turkey's Educational Technology, Governance, Situational Educational Policy: An Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolu, Hüseyin

    2018-01-01

    Investigating the sociology of educational technology can be approached through a series of deliberations based on the interaction between Free/Libre Open Source Software (FLOSS) and Proprietary Close Source Software (PCSS). This article consults public policy discourses of the Fatih project, which is the current educational technology project in…

  14. Applying Critical Discourse Analysis in Health Policy Research: Case Studies in Regional, Organizational, and Global Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans-Agnew, Robin A; Johnson, Susan; Liu, Fuqin; Boutain, Doris M

    2016-08-01

    Critical discourse analysis (CDA) is a promising methodology for policy research in nursing. As a critical theoretical methodology, researchers use CDA to analyze social practices and language use in policies to examine whether such policies may promote or impede social transformation. Despite the widespread use of CDA in other disciplines such as education and sociology, nursing policy research employing CDA methodology is sparse. To advance CDA use in nursing science, it is important to outline the overall research strategies and describe the steps of CDA in policy research. This article describes, using exemplar case studies, how nursing and health policy researchers can employ CDA as a methodology. Three case studies are provided to discuss the application of CDA research methodologies in nursing policy research: (a) implementation of preconception care policies in the Zhejiang province of China, (b) formation and enactment of statewide asthma policy in Washington state of the United States, and (c) organizational implementation of employee antibullying policies in hospital systems in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Each exemplar details how CDA guided the examination of policy within specific contexts and social practices. The variations of the CDA approaches in the three exemplars demonstrated the flexibilities and potentials for conducting policy research grounded in CDA. CDA provides novel insights for nurse researchers examining health policy formation, enactment, and implementation. © The Author(s) 2016.

  15. From demonstration to deployment: An economic analysis of support policies for carbon capture and storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krahé, Max; Heidug, Wolf; Ward, John; Smale, Robin

    2013-01-01

    This paper argues that an integrated policy architecture consisting of multiple policy phases and economic instruments is needed to support the development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) from its present demonstration phase to full-scale deployment. Building on an analysis of the different types of policy instruments to correct market failures specific to CCS in its various stages of development, we suggest a way to combine these into an integrated policy architecture. This policy architecture adapts to the need of a maturing technology, meets the requirement of policymakers to maintain flexibility to respond to changing circumstances while providing investors with the policy certainty that is needed to encourage private sector investment. This combination of flexibility and predictability is achieved through the use of ‘policy gateways’ which explicitly define rules and criteria for when and how policy settings will change. Our findings extend to bioenergy-based CCS applications (BECCS), which could potentially achieve negative emissions. We argue that within a framework of correcting the carbon externality, the added environmental benefits of BECCS should be reflected in an extra incentive. - Highlights: • Sensible aim of current climate policy: secure option of future CCS deployment. • But policy makers require flexibility while private investors require predictability. • Integrating CCS policy into an overall policy architecture can overcome this antinomy. • We describe the key features of a good policy architecture and give an example

  16. Clean Energy Policy Analysis: Impact Analysis of Potential Clean Energy Policy Options for the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busche, S.; Doris, E.; Braccio, R.; Lippert, D.; Finch, P.; O' Toole, D.; Fetter, J.

    2010-04-01

    This report provides detailed analyses of 21 clean energy policy options considered by the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative working groups for recommendation to the 2010 Hawaii State Legislature. The report considers the impact each policy may have on ratepayers, businesses, and the state in terms of energy saved, clean energy generated, and the financial costs and benefits. The analyses provide insight into the possible impacts, both qualitative and quantitative, that these policies may have in Hawaii based on the experience with these policies elsewhere. As much as possible, the analyses incorporate Hawaii-specific context to reflect the many unique aspects of energy use in the State of Hawaii.

  17. Analysis of a government policy to address nursing shortage and nursing education quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abhicharttibutra, K; Kunaviktikul, W; Turale, S; Wichaikhum, O-A; Srisuphan, W

    2017-03-01

    A well-educated, sufficient nursing workforce improves population health and standards of nursing care. Analysing workforce policies assists nurses to learn from the past and develop better future policies. Describe policy-making processes in the first Thai government plan to increase nursing capacity and improve nursing education quality. A qualitative study employing Longest's model to examine policy-making processes. Data were obtained from 28 in-depth interviews with key informants, who had been committee members and former deans of nursing involved with the policy processes in the 1990s. Both qualitative and quantitative data were extracted from relevant documents, and content analysis employed with all data. Three policy phases were identified. Policy formulation, where three streams of problems, politics and policy resulted in identification of nursing shortage, changes of government incumbents and needing to increase nurse production; Policy implementation included creating methods of implementation, appointing responsible people and committees, creating operational plans, producing more nurses and faculty development projects and Policy modification which incorporated implementing the first Thai international doctoral degree in English, a collaborative programme between universities. Not all key informants could be accessed due to the passage of time. Findings are unique to Thailand but inform internationally of nurses' abilities and need to be involved in policy. Nurses were involved in all policy phases. While the policy produced positive developments in growing nursing capacity and education in the past, nursing shortages remained and are now acute in Thailand. Lessons learned from this policy analysis help explain why the nursing education and nursing shortage policy was legislated through the government agenda, and the active involvement of Thai nurses in this process. Nurses globally need to be at the policy-making table to try to reduce nursing

  18. Analysis of maternal and child health policies in Malawi: The methodological perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daire, J; Khalil, D

    2015-12-01

    The question of why most health policies do not achieve their intended results continues to receive a considerable attention in the literature. This is in the light of the recognized gap between policy as intent and policy as practice, which calls for substantial research work to understand the factors that improve policy implementation. Although there is substantial work that explains the reasons why policies achieve or fail to achieve their intended outcomes, there are limited case studies that illustrate how to analyze policies from the methodological perspective. In this article, we report and discuss how a mixed qualitative research method was applied for analyzing maternal and child health policies in Malawi. For the purposes of this article, we do not report research findings; instead we focus our dicussion on the methodology of the study and draw lessons for policy analysis research work. We base our disusssion on our experiences from a study in which we analyzed maternal and child health policies in Malawi over the period from 1964 to 2008. Noting the multifaceted nature of maternal and child health policies, we adopted a mixed qualitative research method, whereby a number of data collection methods were employed. This approach allowed for the capturing of different perspectives of maternal and child health policies in Malawi and for strengthening of the weaknesses of each method, especially in terms of data validity. This research suggested that the multidimensional nature of maternal and child health policies, like other health policies, calls for a combination of research designs as well as a variety of methods of data collection and analysis. In addition, we suggest that, as an emerging research field, health policy analysis will benefit more from case study designs because they provide rich experiences in the actual policy context.

  19. Detrended fluctuation analysis based on higher-order moments of financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Yue; Shang, Pengjian

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, a generalized method of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) is proposed as a new measure to assess the complexity of a complex dynamical system such as stock market. We extend DFA and local scaling DFA to higher moments such as skewness and kurtosis (labeled SMDFA and KMDFA), so as to investigate the volatility scaling property of financial time series. Simulations are conducted over synthetic and financial data for providing the comparative study. We further report the results of volatility behaviors in three American countries, three Chinese and three European stock markets by using DFA and LSDFA method based on higher moments. They demonstrate the dynamics behaviors of time series in different aspects, which can quantify the changes of complexity for stock market data and provide us with more meaningful information than single exponent. And the results reveal some higher moments volatility and higher moments multiscale volatility details that cannot be obtained using the traditional DFA method.

  20. The Relative Importance of the Service Sector in the Mexican Economy: A Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Alberto Flores

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We conduct a study of the secondary and tertiary sectors with the goal of highlighting the relative im-portance of services in the Mexican economy. We consider a time series analysis approach designed to identify the stochastic nature of the series, as well as to define their long-run and-short run relationships with Gross Domestic Product (GDP. The results of cointegration tests suggest that, for the most part, activities in the secondary and tertiary sectors share a common trend with GDP. Interestingly, the long-run elasticities of GDP with respect to services are on average larger than those with respect to secondary activities. Common cycle tests results identify the existence of common cycles between GDP and the disaggregated sectors, as well as with manufacturing, commerce, real estate and transportation. In this case, the short-run elasticities of secondary activities are on average larger than those corresponding to services.

  1. Time series analysis of pressure fluctuation in gas-solid fluidized beds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Alberto S. Felipe

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the present work was to study the differentiation of states of typical fluidization (single bubble, multiple bubble and slugging in a gas-solid fluidized bed, using spectral analysis of pressure fluctuation time series. The effects of the method of measuring (differential and absolute pressure fluctuations and the axial position of the probes in the fluidization column on the identification of each of the regimes studied were evaluated. Fast Fourier Transform (FFT was the mathematic tool used to analysing the data of pressure fluctuations, which expresses the behavior of a time series in the frequency domain. Results indicated that the plenum chamber was a place for reliable measurement and that care should be taken in measurement in the dense phase. The method allowed fluid dynamic regimes to be differentiated by their dominant frequency characteristics.

  2. Phase correction and error estimation in InSAR time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Fattahi, H.; Amelung, F.

    2017-12-01

    During the last decade several InSAR time series approaches have been developed in response to the non-idea acquisition strategy of SAR satellites, such as large spatial and temporal baseline with non-regular acquisitions. The small baseline tubes and regular acquisitions of new SAR satellites such as Sentinel-1 allows us to form fully connected networks of interferograms and simplifies the time series analysis into a weighted least square inversion of an over-determined system. Such robust inversion allows us to focus more on the understanding of different components in InSAR time-series and its uncertainties. We present an open-source python-based package for InSAR time series analysis, called PySAR (https://yunjunz.github.io/PySAR/), with unique functionalities for obtaining unbiased ground displacement time-series, geometrical and atmospheric correction of InSAR data and quantifying the InSAR uncertainty. Our implemented strategy contains several features including: 1) improved spatial coverage using coherence-based network of interferograms, 2) unwrapping error correction using phase closure or bridging, 3) tropospheric delay correction using weather models and empirical approaches, 4) DEM error correction, 5) optimal selection of reference date and automatic outlier detection, 6) InSAR uncertainty due to the residual tropospheric delay, decorrelation and residual DEM error, and 7) variance-covariance matrix of final products for geodetic inversion. We demonstrate the performance using SAR datasets acquired by Cosmo-Skymed and TerraSAR-X, Sentinel-1 and ALOS/ALOS-2, with application on the highly non-linear volcanic deformation in Japan and Ecuador (figure 1). Our result shows precursory deformation before the 2015 eruptions of Cotopaxi volcano, with a maximum uplift of 3.4 cm on the western flank (fig. 1b), with a standard deviation of 0.9 cm (fig. 1a), supporting the finding by Morales-Rivera et al. (2017, GRL); and a post-eruptive subsidence on the same

  3. Causality as a Rigorous Notion and Quantitative Causality Analysis with Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, X. S.

    2017-12-01

    Given two time series, can one faithfully tell, in a rigorous and quantitative way, the cause and effect between them? Here we show that this important and challenging question (one of the major challenges in the science of big data), which is of interest in a wide variety of disciplines, has a positive answer. Particularly, for linear systems, the maximal likelihood estimator of the causality from a series X2 to another series X1, written T2→1, turns out to be concise in form: T2→1 = [C11 C12 C2,d1 — C112 C1,d1] / [C112 C22 — C11C122] where Cij (i,j=1,2) is the sample covariance between Xi and Xj, and Ci,dj the covariance between Xi and ΔXj/Δt, the difference approximation of dXj/dt using the Euler forward scheme. An immediate corollary is that causation implies correlation, but not vice versa, resolving the long-standing debate over causation versus correlation. The above formula has been validated with touchstone series purportedly generated with one-way causality that evades the classical approaches such as Granger causality test and transfer entropy analysis. It has also been applied successfully to the investigation of many real problems. Through a simple analysis with the stock series of IBM and GE, an unusually strong one-way causality is identified from the former to the latter in their early era, revealing to us an old story, which has almost faded into oblivion, about "Seven Dwarfs" competing with a "Giant" for the computer market. Another example presented here regards the cause-effect relation between the two climate modes, El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In general, these modes are mutually causal, but the causality is asymmetric. To El Niño, the information flowing from IOD manifests itself as a propagation of uncertainty from the Indian Ocean. In the third example, an unambiguous one-way causality is found between CO2 and the global mean temperature anomaly. While it is confirmed that CO2 indeed drives the recent global warming

  4. The history of NATO TNF policy: The role of studies, analysis and exercises conference proceedings. Volume 2: Papers and presentations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rinne, R.L.

    1994-02-01

    This conference was organized to study and analyze the role of simulation, analysis, modeling, and exercises in the history of NATO policy. The premise was not that the results of past studies will apply to future policy, but rather that understanding what influenced the decision process -- and how -- would be of value. The structure of the conference was built around discussion panels. The panels were augmented by a series of papers and presentations focusing on particular TNF events, issues, studies, or exercises. The conference proceedings consist of three volumes. Volume 1 contains the conference introduction, agenda, biographical sketches of principal participants, and analytical summary of the presentations and panels. This volume contains a short introduction and the papers and presentations from the conference. Volume 3 contains selected papers by Brig. Gen. Robert C. Richardson III (Ret.). Individual papers in this volume were abstracted and indexed for the database.

  5. The history of NATO TNF policy: The role of studies, analysis and exercises conference proceedings. Volume 1, Introduction and summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rinne, R.L. [ed.

    1994-02-01

    This conference was organized to study and analyze the role of simulation, analysis, modeling, and exercises in the history of NATO policy. The premise was not that the results of past studies will apply to future policy, but rather that understanding what influenced the decision process -- and how -- would be of value. The structure of the conference was built around discussion panels. The panels were augmented by a series of papers and presentations focusing on particular TNF events, issues, studies or exercise. The conference proceedings consist of three volumes. This volume, Volume 1, contains the conference introduction, agenda, biographical sketches of principal participants, and analytical summary of the presentations and discussion panels. Volume 2 contains a short introduction and the papers and presentations from the conference. Volume 3 contains selected papers by Brig. Gen. Robert C. Richardson III (Ret.).

  6. Analysis of Public Policies for Sexuality Education in Germany and The Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aronowitz, Teri; Fawcett, Jacqueline

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to present an analysis of the philosophical, historical, sociological, political, and economic perspectives reflected in the public policies about lifespan sexuality education of Germany and The Netherlands. A new conceptual framework for analysis and evaluation of sexuality education policies that integrates the…

  7. Radial artery pulse waveform analysis based on curve fitting using discrete Fourier series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Zhixing; Zhang, David; Lu, Guangming

    2018-04-19

    Radial artery pulse diagnosis has been playing an important role in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM). For its non-invasion and convenience, the pulse diagnosis has great significance in diseases analysis of modern medicine. The practitioners sense the pulse waveforms in patients' wrist to make diagnoses based on their non-objective personal experience. With the researches of pulse acquisition platforms and computerized analysis methods, the objective study on pulse diagnosis can help the TCM to keep up with the development of modern medicine. In this paper, we propose a new method to extract feature from pulse waveform based on discrete Fourier series (DFS). It regards the waveform as one kind of signal that consists of a series of sub-components represented by sine and cosine (SC) signals with different frequencies and amplitudes. After the pulse signals are collected and preprocessed, we fit the average waveform for each sample using discrete Fourier series by least squares. The feature vector is comprised by the coefficients of discrete Fourier series function. Compared with the fitting method using Gaussian mixture function, the fitting errors of proposed method are smaller, which indicate that our method can represent the original signal better. The classification performance of proposed feature is superior to the other features extracted from waveform, liking auto-regression model and Gaussian mixture model. The coefficients of optimized DFS function, who is used to fit the arterial pressure waveforms, can obtain better performance in modeling the waveforms and holds more potential information for distinguishing different psychological states. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. On-Line Booking Policies and Competitive Analysis of Medical Examination in Hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Luo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available From the on-line point, we consider the hospital’s medical examination appointment problem with hierarchical machines. This approach eliminates the need for both demand forecasts and a risk-neutrality assumption. Due to different unit revenue, uncertain demand, and arrival of patients, we design on-line booking policies for two kinds of different situations from the perspective of on-line policy and competitive analysis. After that, we prove the optimal competitive ratios. Through numerical examples, we compare advantages and disadvantages between on-line policies and traditional policies, finding that there is different superiority for these two policies under different arrival sequences.

  9. Renewable electricity in Sweden: an analysis of policy and regulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Yan [International Department, Chinese Business Law Firm, 20E, Building 2, International Friendship Garden, Zuojiazhuang A2, Chaoyang District 100028 (China)]. E-mail: yanjun9@yahoo.com.cn

    2006-07-15

    This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in Sweden. It assesses the energy policy context, changes in the choice of policy instruments, and provides explanations behind policy successes and failures. Swedish renewable energy policy has been developing in a context of uncertainty around nuclear issues. While there has been made a political decision to replace nuclear power with renewable s, there is a lack of consensus about the pace of phasing out nuclear power due to perceived negative impacts on industrial competitiveness. Such uncertainty had an effect in the formulation of renewable energy policy. Biomass and wind power are the main options for renewable electricity production. Throughout 1990s, the combined effect of different policy instruments has stimulated the growth of these two renewable sources. Yet, both biomass and wind power are still a minor contributor in the total electricity generation. Lack of strong government commitment due to uncertainty around nuclear issues is a crucial factor. Short-term subsidies have been preferred rather than open-ended subsidy mechanisms, causing intervals without subsidies and interruption to development. Other factors are such as lack of incentives from the major electricity companies and administrative obstacles. The taxation system has been successful in fostering an expansion of biomass for heating but hindered a similar development in the electricity sector. The quota system adopted in 2003 is expected to create high demand on biomass but does not favour wind power. The renewable energy aims are unlikely to be changed. Yet, the future development of renewable energy policies especially for high-cost technologies will again depend strongly on nuclear policies, which are still unstable and might affect the pace of renewable energy development.

  10. Renewable electricity in Sweden: an analysis of policy and regulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Yan [International Department, Chinese Business Law Firm, 20E, Building 2, International Friendship Garden, Zuojiazhuang A2, Chaoyang District 100028 (China)

    2006-07-15

    This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in Sweden. It assesses the energy policy context, changes in the choice of policy instruments, and provides explanations behind policy successes and failures. Swedish renewable energy policy has been developing in a context of uncertainty around nuclear issues. While there has been made a political decision to replace nuclear power with renewables, there is a lack of consensus about the pace of phasing out nuclear power due to perceived negative impacts on industrial competitiveness. Such uncertainty had an effect in the formulation of renewable energy policy. Biomass and wind power are the main options for renewable electricity production. Throughout 1990s, the combined effect of different policy instruments has stimulated the growth of these two renewable sources. Yet, both biomass and wind power are still a minor contributor in the total electricity generation. Lack of strong government commitment due to uncertainty around nuclear issues is a crucial factor. Short-term subsidies have been preferred rather than open-ended subsidy mechanisms, causing intervals without subsidies and interruption to development. Other factors are such as lack of incentives from the major electricity companies and administrative obstacles. The taxation system has been successful in fostering an expansion of biomass for heating but hindered a similar development in the electricity sector. The quota system adopted in 2003 is expected to create high demand on biomass but does not favour wind power. The renewable energy aims are unlikely to be changed. Yet, the future development of renewable energy policies especially for high-cost technologies will again depend strongly on nuclear policies, which are still unstable and might affect the pace of renewable energy development. (author)

  11. Renewable electricity in Sweden: an analysis of policy and regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yan

    2006-01-01

    This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in Sweden. It assesses the energy policy context, changes in the choice of policy instruments, and provides explanations behind policy successes and failures. Swedish renewable energy policy has been developing in a context of uncertainty around nuclear issues. While there has been made a political decision to replace nuclear power with renewable s, there is a lack of consensus about the pace of phasing out nuclear power due to perceived negative impacts on industrial competitiveness. Such uncertainty had an effect in the formulation of renewable energy policy. Biomass and wind power are the main options for renewable electricity production. Throughout 1990s, the combined effect of different policy instruments has stimulated the growth of these two renewable sources. Yet, both biomass and wind power are still a minor contributor in the total electricity generation. Lack of strong government commitment due to uncertainty around nuclear issues is a crucial factor. Short-term subsidies have been preferred rather than open-ended subsidy mechanisms, causing intervals without subsidies and interruption to development. Other factors are such as lack of incentives from the major electricity companies and administrative obstacles. The taxation system has been successful in fostering an expansion of biomass for heating but hindered a similar development in the electricity sector. The quota system adopted in 2003 is expected to create high demand on biomass but does not favour wind power. The renewable energy aims are unlikely to be changed. Yet, the future development of renewable energy policies especially for high-cost technologies will again depend strongly on nuclear policies, which are still unstable and might affect the pace of renewable energy development

  12. Contested Spaces in Policy Enactment: A Bourdieusian Analysis of Language Policy in Singapore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokhorst-Heng, Wendy D.; Silver, Rita Elaine

    2017-01-01

    The basic structure and rhetoric of national language policy in multilingual Singapore has remained essentially unchanged since independence with four official languages positioned within the national quadrilingual framework and used in all public spheres, and individual bilingualism encouraged in the private sphere. However, also since…

  13. The Appreciative System of Urban ICT Policies: An Analysis of Perceptions of Urban Policy Makers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cohen-Blankshtain, G.; Nijkamp, P.

    2004-01-01

    Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has become an important tool to promote a variety of public goals and policies. In the past years much attention has been given to the expected social benefits from deploying ICTs in different urban fields (transportation, education, public

  14. Youth policy and participation: An analysis of pedagogical ideals in municipal youth policy in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmerman, Greetje

    Over the past two decades, in several Northern and Western European Union countries responsibility for general youth policy has been transferred from the central government to the local level of municipalities. In this transformation process the local authorities. guided by central government's

  15. Comparative analysis of Canadian multiculturalism policy and the multiculturalism policies of other countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berry, John

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Multiculturalism is an increasingly common characteristic of contemporary societies. In culturally diverse social contexts, virtually every person experiences intercultural contact on a daily basis. It is essential to understand that there must be both cultural diversity and equity in social participation for true multiculturalism to exist in these settings. Beyond its core definition, it is clear that multiculturalism is a complex concept encompassing many dimensions and meanings. First, the term is understood to describe a demographic fact, indicating the existence of cultural diversity in a society. Second, multiculturalism refers to the policies and programs that are in place to manage intercultural relations and acculturation. Third, multiculturalism refers to psychological phenomena, including individual attitudes and ideologies that accept or reject the demographic, civic and policy features of multiculturalism. This chapter considers Canadian multiculturalism policy, examining how the multiple meanings of multiculturalism vary around the world. Within this framework, I highlight the psychological processes and outcomes of multiculturalism, particularly in connection with acculturation, adaptation and intercultural relations and consider whether these processes and outcomes differ for dominant and non-dominant groups. I suggest some ways in which to enhance the positive outcomes of intercultural contact and the resultant acculturation outcomes. Finally, this chapter sets the stage for the presentation of the other chapters in this volume. It elaborates three hypotheses derived from Canadian multiculturalism policy: the multiculturalism, integration and contact hypotheses.

  16. Analysis of cyclical behavior in time series of stock market returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stratimirović, Djordje; Sarvan, Darko; Miljković, Vladimir; Blesić, Suzana

    2018-01-01

    In this paper we have analyzed scaling properties and cyclical behavior of the three types of stock market indexes (SMI) time series: data belonging to stock markets of developed economies, emerging economies, and of the underdeveloped or transitional economies. We have used two techniques of data analysis to obtain and verify our findings: the wavelet transform (WT) spectral analysis to identify cycles in the SMI returns data, and the time-dependent detrended moving average (tdDMA) analysis to investigate local behavior around market cycles and trends. We found cyclical behavior in all SMI data sets that we have analyzed. Moreover, the positions and the boundaries of cyclical intervals that we found seam to be common for all markets in our dataset. We list and illustrate the presence of nine such periods in our SMI data. We report on the possibilities to differentiate between the level of growth of the analyzed markets by way of statistical analysis of the properties of wavelet spectra that characterize particular peak behaviors. Our results show that measures like the relative WT energy content and the relative WT amplitude of the peaks in the small scales region could be used to partially differentiate between market economies. Finally, we propose a way to quantify the level of development of a stock market based on estimation of local complexity of market's SMI series. From the local scaling exponents calculated for our nine peak regions we have defined what we named the Development Index, which proved, at least in the case of our dataset, to be suitable to rank the SMI series that we have analyzed in three distinct groups.

  17. Arab drama series content analysis from a transnational Arab identity perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joelle Chamieh

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The scientific contribution in deciphering drama series falls under the discipline of understanding the narratology of distinctive cultures and traditions within specific contexts of certain societies. This article spells out the interferences deployed by the provocations that are induced through the functions of values in modeling societies which are projected through the transmission of media. The proposed operational model consists of providing an à priori design of common Arab values assimilated into an innovative grid analysis code book that has enabled the execution of a systematic and reliable approach to the quantitative content analysis performance. Additionally, a more thorough qualitative content analysis has been implemented in terms of narratolgy where actions have been evaluated based on the grid analysis code book for a clearer perception of Arab values depicted in terms of their context within the Arab drama milieu. This approach has been deployed on four Arab drama series covering the transnational/national and non-divisive/divisive media aspects in the intention of extracting the transmitted values from a common identity perspective for cause of divulging Arab people’s expectancies.

  18. Inpatient expenditures on alcohol-attributed diseases and alcohol tax policy: a nationwide analysis in Taiwan from 1996 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, C-M; Liao, C-M

    2014-11-01

    To assess the two opposing effects of alcohol tax policy interventions (tax rate increase in 2002 and decrease in 2009) on hospitalization in monetary terms of alcohol-attributed diseases (AADs) in Taiwan. An interrupted time-series analysis. Admissions data from 1996 to 2010 were retrieved from the National Health Insurance Research Database claims file and analysed in this study. Data for 430,388 males and 34,874 females aged 15 or above who were admitted due to an AAD were collected. An interrupted time-series analysis examining the effects of the implementation of alcohol tax policy on quarterly adjusted hospital inpatient charges (HICs) for AADs was employed. The study showed significant (p policy was implemented. No change in quarterly HICs for AADs was found after the alcohol tax increase. The total cost of treating these AAD inpatients over the course of the 15-year period was 640.9 million US dollars. Each inpatient with an AAD costs an average of $900-$2000 depending on the patient's sex and age with the cost increasing gradually after the two tax interventions. More than 80% of the HICs were attributed to alcoholic liver diseases. Psychoses accounted for 6%-18% of the total HICs. Alcohol abuse and alcohol poisoning accounted for less than 2% of the total HICs. This study provides evidence that alcohol taxation has resulted in an immediate reduction of medical expenditures related to AADs. The policy of increasing alcohol tax rates may have favourable influences on health care resources related to treating AADs. Copyright © 2014 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Health Manpower Credentialing: Legal Implications of Institutional Licensure. Health Manpower Policy Discussion Paper Series No.: C3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crane, Stephen

    The objective of this analysis is to outline in broad fashion the current trends and issues in the licensure of health manpower and to contrast two proposed alternative systems of credentialing that focus on licensure of health care institutions instead of individual health care providers. The argument of the analysis is that the current system of…

  20. Modeling Security-Enhanced Linux Policy Specifications for Analysis (Preprint)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Archer, Myla; Leonard, Elizabeth; Pradella, Matteo

    2003-01-01

    Security-Enhanced (SE) Linux is a modification of Linux initially released by NSA in January 2001 that provides a language for specifying Linux security policies and, as in the Flask architecture, a security server...

  1. Kosovo: Review and Analysis of Policy Objectives, 1998-June 1999

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kim, Julie

    1999-01-01

    This report provides an overview of U.S. and international policy objectives in Kosovo from 1998 to mid-1999, when NATO ended an 11-week air strike operation against Yugoslavia and began to deploy a U.N...

  2. Multifractal analysis of geophysical time series in the urban lake of Créteil (France).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mezemate, Yacine; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Bonhomme, Celine; Schertzer, Daniel; Lemaire, Bruno Jacques; Vinçon leite, Brigitte; Lovejoy, Shaun

    2013-04-01

    Urban water bodies take part in the environmental quality of the cities. They regulate heat, contribute to the beauty of landscape and give some space for leisure activities (aquatic sports, swimming). As they are often artificial they are only a few meters deep. It confers them some specific properties. Indeed, they are particularly sensitive to global environmental changes, including climate change, eutrophication and contamination by micro-pollutants due to the urbanization of the watershed. Monitoring their quality has become a major challenge for urban areas. The need for a tool for predicting short-term proliferation of potentially toxic phytoplankton therefore arises. In lakes, the behavior of biological and physical (temperature) fields is mainly driven by the turbulence regime in the water. Turbulence is highly non linear, nonstationary and intermittent. This is why statistical tools are needed to characterize the evolution of the fields. The knowledge of the probability distribution of all the statistical moments of a given field is necessary to fully characterize it. This possibility is offered by the multifractal analysis based on the assumption of scale invariance. To investigate the effect of space-time variability of temperature, chlorophyll and dissolved oxygen on the cyanobacteria proliferation in the urban lake of Creteil (France), a spectral analysis is first performed on each time series (or on subsamples) to have an overall estimate of their scaling behaviors. Then a multifractal analysis (Trace Moment, Double Trace Moment) estimates the statistical moments of different orders. This analysis is adapted to the specific properties of the studied time series, i. e. the presence of large scale gradients. The nonlinear behavior of the scaling functions K(q) confirms that the investigated aquatic time series are indeed multifractal and highly intermittent .The knowledge of the universal multifractal parameters is the key to calculate the different

  3. An Analysis of Cyberbullying Policies In Virginia Public School Districts

    OpenAIRE

    Poole, G. Wesley

    2010-01-01

    Wes Poole Abstract The study examines the acceptable computer system use policies of each of the public school districts in the Commonwealth of Virginia, as well as the Virginia School Boards Association and the National School Boards Association policies as they relate to cyberbullying. Public middle school and public secondary school administrators across the Commonwealth were surveyed to determine to what extent cyberbullying is an issue in their schools, and to d...

  4. YOUTH POLICY IN EUROPE AND RUSSIA (THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. V. Alekseev

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Young people are the main engine of the processes taking place in the society of any country. The study of these processes is an important task of modern political science. The youth make up about a third of the population of Russia. The current viability and future of the country depends on how the problems of Russian youth are resolved. The demand for research is also dictated by the fact that from the perspective of the perspective, youth policy should be oriented towards receptivity to innovations and modernization of society, since this state policy in Russia does not have sufficient traditions and experience of effective functioning. The relevance of the topic of the article is determined by the constant problems of youth and the formation and implementation of youth policy. Now it is important to explore the political life of young people in modern conditions, to determine its content and forms, to compare the experience of the political life of the youth of Russia and other countries, to reveal the determinants of political youth activity; To analyze current trends in youth policy, to uncover trends and show perspectives and to suggest ways to improve it. The topic is in demand, and due to the fact that political life presupposes the participation of the population in various mass movements, socio-political organizations, mass actions, elections. This problem is especially acute for young people, who acquire "political maturity" by becoming voters. As youth policy is written a lot of research, which in varying degrees are considered the problems of youth. Experience of formation and development of youth policy in Europe is one of indicative examples for many countries of the world. Now the youth policy is allocated as the separate direction of state policy, and also institutes of civil society. 

  5. Characterization of Land Transitions Patterns from Multivariate Time Series Using Seasonal Trend Analysis and Principal Component Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benoit Parmentier

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Characterizing biophysical changes in land change areas over large regions with short and noisy multivariate time series and multiple temporal parameters remains a challenging task. Most studies focus on detection rather than the characterization, i.e., the manner by which surface state variables are altered by the process of changes. In this study, a procedure is presented to extract and characterize simultaneous temporal changes in MODIS multivariate times series from three surface state variables the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, land surface temperature (LST and albedo (ALB. The analysis involves conducting a seasonal trend analysis (STA to extract three seasonal shape parameters (Amplitude 0, Amplitude 1 and Amplitude 2 and using principal component analysis (PCA to contrast trends in change and no-change areas. We illustrate the method by characterizing trends in burned and unburned pixels in Alaska over the 2001–2009 time period. Findings show consistent and meaningful extraction of temporal patterns related to fire disturbances. The first principal component (PC1 is characterized by a decrease in mean NDVI (Amplitude 0 with a concurrent increase in albedo (the mean and the annual amplitude and an increase in LST annual variability (Amplitude 1. These results provide systematic empirical evidence of surface changes associated with one type of land change, fire disturbances, and suggest that STA with PCA may be used to characterize many other types of land transitions over large landscape areas using multivariate Earth observation time series.

  6. Energy policy and externalities: the life cycle analysis approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Virdis, M.R.

    2002-01-01

    In the energy sector, getting the prices right is a prerequisite for market mechanisms to work effectively towards sustainable development. However, energy production and use creates 'costs' external to traditional accounting practices, such as damages to human health and the environment resulting from residual emissions or risks associated with dependence on foreign suppliers. Energy market prices do not fully reflect those external costs. For example, the costs of climate change are not internalized and, therefore, consumers do not get the right price signals leading them to make choices that are optimised from a societal viewpoint. Economic theory has developed approaches to assessing and internalizing external costs that can be applied to the energy sector and, in principle, provide means to quantify and integrate relevant information in a comprehensive framework. The tools developed for addressing these issues are generally aimed at monetary valuation of impacts and damages and integration of the valued 'external costs' in total cost of the product, e.g. electricity. The approach of Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) provides a conceptual framework for a detailed and comprehensive comparative evaluation of energy supply options. This paper offers a summary of the LCA methodology and an overview of some of its limitations. It then illustrates, through a few examples, how the methodology can be used to inform or correct policy making and to orient investment decisions. Difficulties and issues emerging at various stages in the application and use of LCA results are discussed, although in such a short note, it is impossible to address all issues related to LCA. Therefore, as part of the concluding section, some issues are left open - and areas in which further analytical work may be needed are described. (author)

  7. Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Vibration Characteristics Analysis of Cylindrical Shell-Plate Coupled Structure Using an Improved Fourier Series Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yipeng Cao

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available A simple yet accurate solution procedure based on the improved Fourier series method (IFSM is applied to the vibration characteristics analysis of a cylindrical shell-circular plate (S-P coupled structure subjected to various boundary conditions. By applying four types of coupling springs with arbitrary stiffness at the junction of the coupled structure, the mechanical coupling effects are completely considered. Each of the plate and shell displacement functions is expressed as the superposition of a two-dimensional Fourier series and several supplementary functions. The unknown series-expansion coefficients are treated as the generalized coordinates and determined using the familiar Rayleigh-Ritz procedure. Using the IFSM, a unified solution for the S-P coupled structure with symmetrical and asymmetrical boundary conditions can be derived directly without the need to change either the equations of motion or the expressions of the displacements. This solution can be verified by comparing the current results with those calculated by the finite-element method (FEM. The effects of several significant factors, including the restraint stiffness, the coupling stiffness, and the situation of coupling, are presented. The forced vibration behaviors of the S-P coupled structure are also illustrated.

  9. Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

    2014-02-01

    The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the

  10. The Impact of the Introduction of Web Information Systems (WIS) on Information Policies: An Analysis of the Canadian Federal Government Policies Related to WIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dufour, Christine; Bergeron, Pierette

    2002-01-01

    Presents results of an analysis of the Canadian federal government information policies that govern its Web information systems (WIS) that was conducted to better understand how the government has adapted its information policies to the WIS. Discusses results that indicate new policies have been crafted to take into account the WIS context.…

  11. Analysis of radiation-induced microchemical evolution in 300 series stainless steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brager, H.R.; Garner, F.A.

    1980-03-01

    The irradiation of 300 series stainless steel by fast neutrons leads to an evolution of alloy microstructures that involves not only the formation of voids and dislocations, but also an extensive repartitioning of elements between various phases. This latter evolution has been shown to be the primary determinant of the alloy behavior in response to the large number of variables which influence void swelling and irradiation creep. The combined use of scanning transmission electron microscopy and energy-dispersive x-ray analysis has been the key element in the study of this phenomenon. Problems associated with the analysis of radioactive specimens are resolved by minor equipment modifications. Problems associated with spatial resolution limitations and the complexity and heterogeneity of the microchemical evolution have been overcome by using several data acquisition techniques. These include the measurement of compositional profiles near sinks, the use of foil-edge analysis, and the statistical sampling of many matrix and precipitate volumes

  12. Difference-in-Differences Analysis of the Association Between State Same-Sex Marriage Policies and Adolescent Suicide Attempts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raifman, Julia; Moscoe, Ellen; Austin, S Bryn; McConnell, Margaret

    2017-04-01

    Suicide is the second leading cause of death among adolescents between the ages of 15 and 24 years. Adolescents who are sexual minorities experience elevated rates of suicide attempts. To evaluate the association between state same-sex marriage policies and adolescent suicide attempts. This study used state-level Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) data from January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2015, which are weighted to be representative of each state that has participation in the survey greater than 60%. A difference-in-differences analysis compared changes in suicide attempts among all public high school students before and after implementation of state policies in 32 states permitting same-sex marriage with year-to-year changes in suicide attempts among high school students in 15 states without policies permitting same-sex marriage. Linear regression was used to control for state, age, sex, race/ethnicity, and year, with Taylor series linearized standard errors clustered by state and classroom. In a secondary analysis among students who are sexual minorities, we included an interaction between sexual minority identity and living in a state that had implemented same-sex marriage policies. Implementation of state policies permitting same-sex marriage during the full period of YRBSS data collection. Self-report of 1 or more suicide attempts within the past 12 months. Among the 762 678 students (mean [SD] age, 16.0 [1.2] years; 366 063 males and 396 615 females) who participated in the YRBSS between 1999 and 2015, a weighted 8.6% of all high school students and 28.5% of students who identified as sexual minorities reported suicide attempts before implementation of same-sex marriage policies. Same-sex marriage policies were associated with a 0.6-percentage point (95% CI, -1.2 to -0.01 percentage points) reduction in suicide attempts, representing a 7% relative reduction in the proportion of high school students attempting suicide owing to same

  13. ZWD time series analysis derived from NRT data processing. A regional study of PW in Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pikridas, Christos; Balidakis, Kyriakos; Katsougiannopoulos, Symeon

    2015-04-01

    ZWD (Zenith Wet/non-hydrostatic Delay) estimates are routinely derived Near Real Time from the new established Analysis Center in the Department of Geodesy and Surveying of Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (DGS/AUT-AC), in the framework of E-GVAP (EUMETNET GNSS water vapour project) since October 2014. This process takes place on an hourly basis and yields, among else, station coordinates and tropospheric parameter estimates for a network of 90+ permanent GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) stations. These are distributed at the wider part of Hellenic region. In this study, temporal and spatial variability of ZWD estimates were examined, as well as their relation with coordinate series extracted from both float and fixed solution of the initial phase ambiguities. For this investigation, Bernese GNSS Software v5.2 was used for the acquisition of the 6 month dataset from the aforementioned network. For time series analysis we employed techniques such as the Generalized Lomb-Scargle periodogram and Burg's maximum entropy method due to inefficiencies of the Discrete Fourier Transform application in the test dataset. Through the analysis, interesting results for further geophysical interpretation were drawn. In addition, the spatial and temporal distributions of Precipitable Water vapour (PW) obtained from both ZWD estimates and ERA-Interim reanalysis grids were investigated.

  14. Permutation entropy based time series analysis: Equalities in the input signal can lead to false conclusions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zunino, Luciano, E-mail: lucianoz@ciop.unlp.edu.ar [Centro de Investigaciones Ópticas (CONICET La Plata – CIC), C.C. 3, 1897 Gonnet (Argentina); Departamento de Ciencias Básicas, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional de La Plata (UNLP), 1900 La Plata (Argentina); Olivares, Felipe, E-mail: olivaresfe@gmail.com [Instituto de Física, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso (PUCV), 23-40025 Valparaíso (Chile); Scholkmann, Felix, E-mail: Felix.Scholkmann@gmail.com [Research Office for Complex Physical and Biological Systems (ROCoS), Mutschellenstr. 179, 8038 Zurich (Switzerland); Biomedical Optics Research Laboratory, Department of Neonatology, University Hospital Zurich, University of Zurich, 8091 Zurich (Switzerland); Rosso, Osvaldo A., E-mail: oarosso@gmail.com [Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL), BR 104 Norte km 97, 57072-970, Maceió, Alagoas (Brazil); Instituto Tecnológico de Buenos Aires (ITBA) and CONICET, C1106ACD, Av. Eduardo Madero 399, Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires (Argentina); Complex Systems Group, Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Aplicadas, Universidad de los Andes, Av. Mons. Álvaro del Portillo 12.455, Las Condes, Santiago (Chile)

    2017-06-15

    A symbolic encoding scheme, based on the ordinal relation between the amplitude of neighboring values of a given data sequence, should be implemented before estimating the permutation entropy. Consequently, equalities in the analyzed signal, i.e. repeated equal values, deserve special attention and treatment. In this work, we carefully study the effect that the presence of equalities has on permutation entropy estimated values when these ties are symbolized, as it is commonly done, according to their order of appearance. On the one hand, the analysis of computer-generated time series is initially developed to understand the incidence of repeated values on permutation entropy estimations in controlled scenarios. The presence of temporal correlations is erroneously concluded when true pseudorandom time series with low amplitude resolutions are considered. On the other hand, the analysis of real-world data is included to illustrate how the presence of a significant number of equal values can give rise to false conclusions regarding the underlying temporal structures in practical contexts. - Highlights: • Impact of repeated values in a signal when estimating permutation entropy is studied. • Numerical and experimental tests are included for characterizing this limitation. • Non-negligible temporal correlations can be spuriously concluded by repeated values. • Data digitized with low amplitude resolutions could be especially affected. • Analysis with shuffled realizations can help to overcome this limitation.

  15. Visualization of time series statistical data by shape analysis (GDP ratio changes among Asia countries)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirota, Yukari; Hashimoto, Takako; Fitri Sari, Riri

    2018-03-01

    It has been very significant to visualize time series big data. In the paper we shall discuss a new analysis method called “statistical shape analysis” or “geometry driven statistics” on time series statistical data in economics. In the paper, we analyse the agriculture, value added and industry, value added (percentage of GDP) changes from 2000 to 2010 in Asia. We handle the data as a set of landmarks on a two-dimensional image to see the deformation using the principal components. The point of the analysis method is the principal components of the given formation which are eigenvectors of its bending energy matrix. The local deformation can be expressed as the set of non-Affine transformations. The transformations give us information about the local differences between in 2000 and in 2010. Because the non-Affine transformation can be decomposed into a set of partial warps, we present the partial warps visually. The statistical shape analysis is widely used in biology but, in economics, no application can be found. In the paper, we investigate its potential to analyse the economic data.

  16. G14A-06- Analysis of the DORIS, GNSS, SLR, VLBI and Gravimetric Time Series at the GGOS Core Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreaux, G.; Lemoine, F.; Luceri, V.; Pavlis, E.; MacMillan, D.; Bonvalot, S.; Saunier, J.

    2017-01-01

    Analysis of the time series at the 3-4 multi-technique GGOS sites to analyze and compare the spectral content of the space geodetic and gravity time series. Evaluate the level of agreement between the space geodesy measurements and the physical tie vectors.

  17. Renal transplant lithiasis: analysis of our series and review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stravodimos, Konstantinos G; Adamis, Stefanos; Tyritzis, Stavros; Georgios, Zavos; Constantinides, Constantinos A

    2012-01-01

    Renal transplant lithiasis represents a rather uncommon complication. Even rare, it can result in significant morbidity and a devastating loss of renal function if obstruction occurs. We present our experience with graft lithiasis in our series of renal transplantations and review the literature regarding the epidemiology, pathophysiology, and current therapeutic strategies in the management of renal transplant lithiasis. In a retrospective analysis of a consecutive series of 1525 renal transplantations that were performed between January 1983 and March 2007, 7 patients were found to have allograft lithiasis. In five cases, the calculi were localized in the renal unit, and in two cases, in the ureter. A review in the English language was also performed of the Medline and PubMed databases using the keywords renal transplant lithiasis, donor-gifted lithiasis, and urological complications after kidney transplantation. Several retrospective studies regarding the incidence, etiology, as well as predisposing factors for graft lithiasis were reviewed. Data regarding the current therapeutic strategies for graft lithiasis were also evaluated, and outcomes were compared with the results of our series. Most studies report a renal transplant lithiasis incidence of 0.4% to 1%. In our series, incidence of graft lithiasis was 0.46% (n=7). Of the seven patients, three were treated via percutaneous nephrolithotripsy (PCNL); in three patients, shockwave lithotripsy (SWL) was performed; and in a single case, spontaneous passage of a urinary calculus was observed. All patients are currently stone free but still remain under close urologic surveillance. Renal transplant lithiasis requires vigilance, a high index of suspicion, prompt recognition, and management. Treatment protocols should mimic those for solitary kidneys. Minimally invasive techniques are available to remove graft calculi. Long-term follow-up is essential to determine the outcome, as well as to prevent recurrence.

  18. Stability analysis and dynamic response of a DC-link module with a series voltage compensator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Huai; Liu, Wenchao; Chung, Henry

    2013-01-01

    A DC-link module composed of a reduced value of DC-link capacitor and a series voltage compensator has been proposed. The voltage compensator processes the ripple voltage on the DC link and reactive power only, which can be implemented by low-voltage devices. The overall energy storage of the DC......-link module is reduced, permitting the replacement of electrolytic capacitors by film capacitors in a cost-effective way. This paper focuses on the stability analysis and dynamic performance evaluation of the proposed DC-link module. Theoretical study and experimental verification are presented...

  19. Use of recurrence plot and recurrence quantification analysis in Taiwan unemployment rate time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wei-Shing

    2011-04-01

    The aim of the article is to answer the question if the Taiwan unemployment rate dynamics is generated by a non-linear deterministic dynamic process. This paper applies a recurrence plot and recurrence quantification approach based on the analysis of non-stationary hidden transition patterns of the unemployment rate of Taiwan. The case study uses the time series data of the Taiwan’s unemployment rate during the period from 1978/01 to 2010/06. The results show that recurrence techniques are able to identify various phases in the evolution of unemployment transition in Taiwan.

  20. Interpretation of engine cycle-to-cycle variation by chaotic time series analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daw, C.S.; Kahl, W.K.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper we summarize preliminary results from applying a new mathematical technique -- chaotic time series analysis (CTSA) -- to cylinder pressure data from a spark-ignition (SI) four-stroke engine fueled with both methanol and iso-octane. Our objective is to look for the presence of deterministic chaos'' dynamics in peak pressure variations and to investigate the potential usefulness of CTSA as a diagnostic tool. Our results suggest that sequential peak cylinder pressures exhibit some characteristic features of deterministic chaos and that CTSA can extract previously unrecognized information from such data. 18 refs., 11 figs., 2 tabs.