Environmental policy analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1978-01-01

The Environmental Policy Analysis Program was established to improve the formation of energy development and environmental policies with due mutual regard for national environmental and energy development needs. As a separate office under the Assistant Secretary for Environment, the program is implemented by the Director and by Offices of Environmental Policy Analysis in the eight DOE multiprogram laboratories. The program provides the Assistant Secretary with information on alternatives for decision making and early warning of environmental problems and considerations that may affect energy policy decisions. The program is intended to be a continuing activity, with its scope determined progressively as issues are defined. During FY-1977 the program focused on information compilation on levels of Pu and other transuranic elements in soils that would render the area unsafe for unlimited use; the impact of water pollution control laws on energy technologies; an analysis of the comparative health risks associated with various energy technologies; and the cost and related impacts on the nuclear industry arising from changes in radiation standards during the past 15 years

Examining Key Issues Underlying the Audit Commission Reports on SEN Policy Paper 1 (5th Series)

Science.gov (United States)

Norwich, Brahm; Beek, Chris; Richardson, Penny; Gray, Peter

2004-01-01

This book is the first publication in the fifth series of seminars organised by the SEN Policy Options Steering Group to examine policy issues to do with special educational needs. The aim of the seminar was to examine in depth several underlying issues raised by the recent Audit Commission Reports on special educational needs. The seminar…

Visibility Graph Based Time Series Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Stephen, Mutua; Gu, Changgui; Yang, Huijie

2015-01-01

Network based time series analysis has made considerable achievements in the recent years. By mapping mono/multivariate time series into networks, one can investigate both it's microscopic and macroscopic behaviors. However, most proposed approaches lead to the construction of static networks consequently providing limited information on evolutionary behaviors. In the present paper we propose a method called visibility graph based time series analysis, in which series segments are mapped to visibility graphs as being descriptions of the corresponding states and the successively occurring states are linked. This procedure converts a time series to a temporal network and at the same time a network of networks. Findings from empirical records for stock markets in USA (S&P500 and Nasdaq) and artificial series generated by means of fractional Gaussian motions show that the method can provide us rich information benefiting short-term and long-term predictions. Theoretically, we propose a method to investigate time series from the viewpoint of network of networks.

Visibility Graph Based Time Series Analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mutua Stephen

Full Text Available Network based time series analysis has made considerable achievements in the recent years. By mapping mono/multivariate time series into networks, one can investigate both it's microscopic and macroscopic behaviors. However, most proposed approaches lead to the construction of static networks consequently providing limited information on evolutionary behaviors. In the present paper we propose a method called visibility graph based time series analysis, in which series segments are mapped to visibility graphs as being descriptions of the corresponding states and the successively occurring states are linked. This procedure converts a time series to a temporal network and at the same time a network of networks. Findings from empirical records for stock markets in USA (S&P500 and Nasdaq and artificial series generated by means of fractional Gaussian motions show that the method can provide us rich information benefiting short-term and long-term predictions. Theoretically, we propose a method to investigate time series from the viewpoint of network of networks.

Deregulation of sale of over-the-counter drugs outside of pharmacies in the Republic of Korea: interrupted-time-series analysis of outpatient visits before and after the policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Chun, Sung-Youn; Park, Hye-Ki; Han, Kyu-Tae; Kim, Woorim; Lee, Hyo-Jung; Park, Eun-Cheol

2017-07-12

We evaluated the effectiveness of a policy allowing for the sale of over-the-counter drugs outside of pharmacies by examining its effect on number of monthly outpatient visits for acute upper respiratory infections, dyspepsia, and migraine. We used medical claims data extracted from the Korean National Health Insurance Cohort Database from 2009 to 2013. The Korean National Health Insurance Cohort Database comprises a nationally representative sample of claims - about 2% of the entire population - obtained from the medical record data held by the Korean National Health Insurance Corporation (which has data on the entire nation). The analysis included26,284,706 person-months of 1,042,728 individuals. An interrupted-time series analysis was performed. Outcome measures were monthly outpatient visits for acute upper respiratory infections, dyspepsia, and migraine. To investigate the effect of the policy, we compared the number of monthly visits before and after the policy's implementation in 2012. For acute upper respiratory infections, monthly outpatient visits showed a decreasing trend before the policy (ß = -0.0003);after it, a prompt change and increasing trend in monthly outpatient visits were observed, but these were non-significant. For dyspepsia, the trend was increasing before implementation (ß = -0.0101), but this reversed after implementation(ß = -0.007). For migraine, an increasing trend was observed before the policy (ß = 0.0057). After it, we observed a significant prompt change (ß = -0.0314) but no significant trend. Deregulation of selling over-the-counter medication outside of pharmacies reduced monthly outpatient visits for dyspepsia and migraine symptoms, but not acute upper respiratory infections.

Risk Implications of Energy Policy Instruments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kitzing, Lena

papers and a working paper), based on a combination of micro-economic and policy analysis. Financial theory is used for the quantitative analysis of investment problems under uncertainty, including mean-variance portfolio theory, real option analysis, Monte Carlo simulations and time series analysis...... show, both qualitatively and quantitatively, that policy makers cannot neglect risk implications when designing RES support instruments without compromising either on effectiveness or cost-efficiency of energy policy. The central research questions are: how can risk implications of RES policy...... instruments be integrated into policy design, so that the policies provide adequate investment incentives? And can the consideration of such risk implications in policy design make overall energy policy more successful? These questions are answered in seven research papers (four journal papers, two conference...

The Policy Impact of Social Movements: A Replication Through Qualitative Comparative Analysis

OpenAIRE

Giugni, Marco; Yamasaki, Sakura

2009-01-01

This article reanalyzes the data of a previous study on the policy impact of antinuclear, ecology, and peace movements in three countries with the aim of replicating its findings. Our goal is to see whether using a different analytical technique will yield similar results. The previous study used a regression approach to time-series analysis. Here, we use qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to analyze the previous study’s data. Specifically, we test the two main hypotheses based on the joi...

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS USING A UNIQUE MODEL OF TRANSFORMATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Goran Klepac

2007-12-01

Full Text Available REFII1 model is an authorial mathematical model for time series data mining. The main purpose of that model is to automate time series analysis, through a unique transformation model of time series. An advantage of this approach of time series analysis is the linkage of different methods for time series analysis, linking traditional data mining tools in time series, and constructing new algorithms for analyzing time series. It is worth mentioning that REFII model is not a closed system, which means that we have a finite set of methods. At first, this is a model for transformation of values of time series, which prepares data used by different sets of methods based on the same model of transformation in a domain of problem space. REFII model gives a new approach in time series analysis based on a unique model of transformation, which is a base for all kind of time series analysis. The advantage of REFII model is its possible application in many different areas such as finance, medicine, voice recognition, face recognition and text mining.

Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control

CERN Document Server

Box, George E P; Reinsel, Gregory C

2011-01-01

A modernized new edition of one of the most trusted books on time series analysis. Since publication of the first edition in 1970, Time Series Analysis has served as one of the most influential and prominent works on the subject. This new edition maintains its balanced presentation of the tools for modeling and analyzing time series and also introduces the latest developments that have occurred n the field over the past decade through applications from areas such as business, finance, and engineering. The Fourth Edition provides a clearly written exploration of the key methods for building, cl

Time-series-analysis techniques applied to nuclear-material accounting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pike, D.H.; Morrison, G.W.; Downing, D.J.

1982-05-01

This document is designed to introduce the reader to the applications of Time Series Analysis techniques to Nuclear Material Accountability data. Time series analysis techniques are designed to extract information from a collection of random variables ordered by time by seeking to identify any trends, patterns, or other structure in the series. Since nuclear material accountability data is a time series, one can extract more information using time series analysis techniques than by using other statistical techniques. Specifically, the objective of this document is to examine the applicability of time series analysis techniques to enhance loss detection of special nuclear materials. An introductory section examines the current industry approach which utilizes inventory differences. The error structure of inventory differences is presented. Time series analysis techniques discussed include the Shewhart Control Chart, the Cumulative Summation of Inventory Differences Statistics (CUSUM) and the Kalman Filter and Linear Smoother

On-line analysis of reactor noise using time-series analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McGevna, V.G.

1981-10-01

A method to allow use of time series analysis for on-line noise analysis has been developed. On-line analysis of noise in nuclear power reactors has been limited primarily to spectral analysis and related frequency domain techniques. Time series analysis has many distinct advantages over spectral analysis in the automated processing of reactor noise. However, fitting an autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) model to time series data involves non-linear least squares estimation. Unless a high speed, general purpose computer is available, the calculations become too time consuming for on-line applications. To eliminate this problem, a special purpose algorithm was developed for fitting ARMA models. While it is based on a combination of steepest descent and Taylor series linearization, properties of the ARMA model are used so that the auto- and cross-correlation functions can be used to eliminate the need for estimating derivatives. The number of calculations, per iteration varies lineegardless of the mee 0.2% yield strength displayed anisotropy, with axial and circumferential values being greater than radial. For CF8-CPF8 and CF8M-CPF8M castings to meet current ASME Code S acid fuel cells

A Dynamic Linear Modeling Approach to Public Policy Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Loftis, Matthew; Mortensen, Peter Bjerre

2017-01-01

Theories of public policy change, despite their differences, converge on one point of strong agreement. The relationship between policy and its causes can and does change over time. This consensus yields numerous empirical implications, but our standard analytical tools are inadequate for testing...... them. As a result, the dynamic and transformative relationships predicted by policy theories have been left largely unexplored in time-series analysis of public policy. This paper introduces dynamic linear modeling (DLM) as a useful statistical tool for exploring time-varying relationships in public...... policy. The paper offers a detailed exposition of the DLM approach and illustrates its usefulness with a time series analysis of U.S. defense policy from 1957-2010. The results point the way for a new attention to dynamics in the policy process and the paper concludes with a discussion of how...

The foundations of modern time series analysis

CERN Document Server

Mills, Terence C

2011-01-01

This book develops the analysis of Time Series from its formal beginnings in the 1890s through to the publication of Box and Jenkins' watershed publication in 1970, showing how these methods laid the foundations for the modern techniques of Time Series analysis that are in use today.

Time series analysis in the social sciences the fundamentals

CERN Document Server

Shin, Youseop

2017-01-01

Times Series Analysis in the Social Sciences is a practical and highly readable introduction written exclusively for students and researchers whose mathematical background is limited to basic algebra. The book focuses on fundamental elements of time series analysis that social scientists need to understand so they can employ time series analysis for their research and practice. Through step-by-step explanations and using monthly violent crime rates as case studies, this book explains univariate time series from the preliminary visual analysis through the modeling of seasonality, trends, and re

Elements of nonlinear time series analysis and forecasting

CERN Document Server

De Gooijer, Jan G

2017-01-01

This book provides an overview of the current state-of-the-art of nonlinear time series analysis, richly illustrated with examples, pseudocode algorithms and real-world applications. Avoiding a “theorem-proof” format, it shows concrete applications on a variety of empirical time series. The book can be used in graduate courses in nonlinear time series and at the same time also includes interesting material for more advanced readers. Though it is largely self-contained, readers require an understanding of basic linear time series concepts, Markov chains and Monte Carlo simulation methods. The book covers time-domain and frequency-domain methods for the analysis of both univariate and multivariate (vector) time series. It makes a clear distinction between parametric models on the one hand, and semi- and nonparametric models/methods on the other. This offers the reader the option of concentrating exclusively on one of these nonlinear time series analysis methods. To make the book as user friendly as possible...

Analysis of Heavy-Tailed Time Series

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Xie, Xiaolei

This thesis is about analysis of heavy-tailed time series. We discuss tail properties of real-world equity return series and investigate the possibility that a single tail index is shared by all return series of actively traded equities in a market. Conditions for this hypothesis to be true...... are identified. We study the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of sample covariance and sample auto-covariance matrices of multivariate heavy-tailed time series, and particularly for time series with very high dimensions. Asymptotic approximations of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of such matrices are found...... and expressed in terms of the parameters of the dependence structure, among others. Furthermore, we study an importance sampling method for estimating rare-event probabilities of multivariate heavy-tailed time series generated by matrix recursion. We show that the proposed algorithm is efficient in the sense...

Mathematical foundations of time series analysis a concise introduction

CERN Document Server

Beran, Jan

2017-01-01

This book provides a concise introduction to the mathematical foundations of time series analysis, with an emphasis on mathematical clarity. The text is reduced to the essential logical core, mostly using the symbolic language of mathematics, thus enabling readers to very quickly grasp the essential reasoning behind time series analysis. It appeals to anybody wanting to understand time series in a precise, mathematical manner. It is suitable for graduate courses in time series analysis but is equally useful as a reference work for students and researchers alike.

The Surveillance of Learning: A Critical Analysis of University Attendance Policies

Science.gov (United States)

Macfarlane, Bruce

2013-01-01

Universities have recently strengthened their class attendance policies along with associated practices that intensify the surveillance of learning: a series of administrative and pedagogic strategies that monitor the extent to which students conform with behavioural expectations associated with learning. Drawing on university policy statements,…

Policy analysis of multi-actor systems

CERN Document Server

Enserink, Bert; Kwakkel, Jan; Thissen, Wil; Koppenjan, Joop; Bots, Pieter

2010-01-01

Policy analysts love solving complex problems. Their favorite problems are not just technically complex but also characterized by the presence of many different social actors that hold conflicting interests, objectives, and perceptions and act strategically to get the best out of a problem situation. This book offers guidance for policy analysts who want to assess if and how their analysis could be of help, based on the premise that problem formulation is the cornerstone in addressing complex problems. This book positions policy analysis within the theories on processes of policy making, and f

Policy analysis: palliative care in Ireland.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Larkin, P

2014-03-01

Palliative care for patients with advanced illness is a subject of growing importance in health services, policy and research. In 2001 Ireland became one of the first nations to publish a dedicated national palliative care policy. This paper uses the \\'policy analysis triangle\\' as a framework to examine what the policy entailed, where the key ideas originated, why the policy process was activated, who were the key actors, and what were the main consequences. Although palliative care provision expanded following publication, priorities that were unaddressed or not fully embraced on the national policy agenda are identified. The factors underlying areas of non-fulfilment of policy are then discussed. In particular, the analysis highlights that policy initiatives in a relatively new field of healthcare face a trade-off between ambition and feasibility. Key policy goals could not be realised given the large resource commitments required; the competition for resources from other, better-established healthcare sectors; and challenges in expanding workforce and capacity. Additionally, the inherently cross-sectoral nature of palliative care complicated the co-ordination of support for the policy. Policy initiatives in emerging fields such as palliative care should address carefully feasibility and support in their conception and implementation.

The analysis of time series: an introduction

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Chatfield, Christopher

1989-01-01

.... A variety of practical examples are given to support the theory. The book covers a wide range of time-series topics, including probability models for time series, Box-Jenkins forecasting, spectral analysis, linear systems and system identification...

Interrupted time series analysis in drug utilization research is increasing: systematic review and recommendations.

Science.gov (United States)

Jandoc, Racquel; Burden, Andrea M; Mamdani, Muhammad; Lévesque, Linda E; Cadarette, Suzanne M

2015-08-01

To describe the use and reporting of interrupted time series methods in drug utilization research. We completed a systematic search of MEDLINE, Web of Science, and reference lists to identify English language articles through to December 2013 that used interrupted time series methods in drug utilization research. We tabulated the number of studies by publication year and summarized methodological detail. We identified 220 eligible empirical applications since 1984. Only 17 (8%) were published before 2000, and 90 (41%) were published since 2010. Segmented regression was the most commonly applied interrupted time series method (67%). Most studies assessed drug policy changes (51%, n = 112); 22% (n = 48) examined the impact of new evidence, 18% (n = 39) examined safety advisories, and 16% (n = 35) examined quality improvement interventions. Autocorrelation was considered in 66% of studies, 31% reported adjusting for seasonality, and 15% accounted for nonstationarity. Use of interrupted time series methods in drug utilization research has increased, particularly in recent years. Despite methodological recommendations, there is large variation in reporting of analytic methods. Developing methodological and reporting standards for interrupted time series analysis is important to improve its application in drug utilization research, and we provide recommendations for consideration. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Public Policies Analysis and the Prince System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Behxhet Brajshori

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Public Policies present governmental sectorial policies and according to several scholars those are defined based on "what does the Government do". In fact, those are mandatory state's principles for the Government that aims the implementation of the strategy, objectives and Government's goals in the function of its promises' fulfilment towards the electors and all of the country's citizens. Public Policies Analysis has to do with the monitoring of government's agenda which directly can influence on a specific community. The idea of public policies analysis in linked with the need that the Government through statistical data has to prove what is being worked. Public Policies Analysis evolves in terms of design, implementation and public policies' effects. One of the methods for predicting the probability that a specifi c public policy will be implemented or not, is the Prince System. The Prince System, actually, presents a technique for assessing the relative support or opposition to a particular policy from individuals, groups or organizations.

Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Karimlou, Masoud; Salehi, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

2015-01-01

Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box-Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection.

Introduction to time series analysis and forecasting

CERN Document Server

Montgomery, Douglas C; Kulahci, Murat

2008-01-01

An accessible introduction to the most current thinking in and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data. Analyzing time-oriented data and forecasting are among the most important problems that analysts face across many fields, ranging from finance and economics to production operations and the natural sciences. As a result, there is a widespread need for large groups of people in a variety of fields to understand the basic concepts of time series analysis and forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting presents the time series analysis branch of applied statistics as the underlying methodology for developing practical forecasts, and it also bridges the gap between theory and practice by equipping readers with the tools needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct useful, short- to medium-term, statistically based forecasts.

Relating Actor Analysis Methods to Policy Problems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van der Lei, T.E.

2009-01-01

For a policy analyst the policy problem is the starting point for the policy analysis process. During this process the policy analyst structures the policy problem and makes a choice for an appropriate set of methods or techniques to analyze the problem (Goeller 1984). The methods of the policy

Interrupted time-series analysis: studying trends in neurosurgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Ricky H; Smieliauskas, Fabrice; Pan, I-Wen; Lam, Sandi K

2015-12-01

OBJECT Neurosurgery studies traditionally have evaluated the effects of interventions on health care outcomes by studying overall changes in measured outcomes over time. Yet, this type of linear analysis is limited due to lack of consideration of the trend's effects both pre- and postintervention and the potential for confounding influences. The aim of this study was to illustrate interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) as applied to an example in the neurosurgical literature and highlight ITSA's potential for future applications. METHODS The methods used in previous neurosurgical studies were analyzed and then compared with the methodology of ITSA. RESULTS The ITSA method was identified in the neurosurgical literature as an important technique for isolating the effect of an intervention (such as a policy change or a quality and safety initiative) on a health outcome independent of other factors driving trends in the outcome. The authors determined that ITSA allows for analysis of the intervention's immediate impact on outcome level and on subsequent trends and enables a more careful measure of the causal effects of interventions on health care outcomes. CONCLUSIONS ITSA represents a significant improvement over traditional observational study designs in quantifying the impact of an intervention. ITSA is a useful statistical procedure to understand, consider, and implement as the field of neurosurgery evolves in sophistication in big-data analytics, economics, and health services research.

Time Series Analysis of Insar Data: Methods and Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Osmanoglu, Batuhan; Sunar, Filiz; Wdowinski, Shimon; Cano-Cabral, Enrique

2015-01-01

Time series analysis of InSAR data has emerged as an important tool for monitoring and measuring the displacement of the Earth's surface. Changes in the Earth's surface can result from a wide range of phenomena such as earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, variations in ground water levels, and changes in wetland water levels. Time series analysis is applied to interferometric phase measurements, which wrap around when the observed motion is larger than one-half of the radar wavelength. Thus, the spatio-temporal ''unwrapping" of phase observations is necessary to obtain physically meaningful results. Several different algorithms have been developed for time series analysis of InSAR data to solve for this ambiguity. These algorithms may employ different models for time series analysis, but they all generate a first-order deformation rate, which can be compared to each other. However, there is no single algorithm that can provide optimal results in all cases. Since time series analyses of InSAR data are used in a variety of applications with different characteristics, each algorithm possesses inherently unique strengths and weaknesses. In this review article, following a brief overview of InSAR technology, we discuss several algorithms developed for time series analysis of InSAR data using an example set of results for measuring subsidence rates in Mexico City.

Foreign Policy: Approaches, Levels Of Analysis, Dimensions

OpenAIRE

Nina Šoljan

2012-01-01

This paper provides an overview of key issues related to foreign policy and foreign policy theories in the wider context of political science. Discussing the origins and development of foreign policy analysis (FPA), as well as scholarly work produced over time, it argues that today FPA encompasses a variety of theoretical approaches, models and tools. These share the understanding that foreign policy outputs cannot be fully explained if analysis is confined to the systemic level. Furthermore,...

Nonlinear time series analysis of the human electrocardiogram

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perc, Matjaz

2005-01-01

We analyse the human electrocardiogram with simple nonlinear time series analysis methods that are appropriate for graduate as well as undergraduate courses. In particular, attention is devoted to the notions of determinism and stationarity in physiological data. We emphasize that methods of nonlinear time series analysis can be successfully applied only if the studied data set originates from a deterministic stationary system. After positively establishing the presence of determinism and stationarity in the studied electrocardiogram, we calculate the maximal Lyapunov exponent, thus providing interesting insights into the dynamics of the human heart. Moreover, to facilitate interest and enable the integration of nonlinear time series analysis methods into the curriculum at an early stage of the educational process, we also provide user-friendly programs for each implemented method

Feminist Policy Analysis: Expanding Traditional Social Work Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Kanenberg, Heather

2013-01-01

In an effort to move the methodology of policy analysis beyond the traditional and artificial position of being objective and value-free, this article is a call to those working and teaching in social work to consider a feminist policy analysis lens. A review of standard policy analysis models is presented alongside feminist models. Such a…

Policy integration, coherence and governance in Dutch climate policy : a multi-level analysis of mitigation and adoption policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bommel, van S.; Kuindersma, W.

2008-01-01

This report assesses the integration of climate policy in Dutch public policy at the national, regional, local and area level. The national analysis focuses on the horizontal integration of climate policy in national government programmes, adaptation and mitigation strategies and specific policy

Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000–2011

Science.gov (United States)

Karimlou, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

2015-01-01

Background Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. Objectives To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. Methods In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box–Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. Results There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Conclusions The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection. PMID:26119774

What marketing scholars should know about time series analysis : time series applications in marketing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Horváth, Csilla; Kornelis, Marcel; Leeflang, Peter S.H.

2002-01-01

In this review, we give a comprehensive summary of time series techniques in marketing, and discuss a variety of time series analysis (TSA) techniques and models. We classify them in the sets (i) univariate TSA, (ii) multivariate TSA, and (iii) multiple TSA. We provide relevant marketing

Introduction to time series analysis and forecasting

CERN Document Server

Montgomery, Douglas C; Kulahci, Murat

2015-01-01

Praise for the First Edition ""…[t]he book is great for readers who need to apply the methods and models presented but have little background in mathematics and statistics."" -MAA Reviews Thoroughly updated throughout, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition presents the underlying theories of time series analysis that are needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct real-world short- to medium-term statistical forecasts.    Authored by highly-experienced academics and professionals in engineering statistics, the Second Edition features discussions on both

Analysis of series resonant converter with series-parallel connection

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Bor-Ren; Huang, Chien-Lan

2011-02-01

In this study, a parallel inductor-inductor-capacitor (LLC) resonant converter series-connected on the primary side and parallel-connected on the secondary side is presented for server power supply systems. Based on series resonant behaviour, the power metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors are turned on at zero voltage switching and the rectifier diodes are turned off at zero current switching. Thus, the switching losses on the power semiconductors are reduced. In the proposed converter, the primary windings of the two LLC converters are connected in series. Thus, the two converters have the same primary currents to ensure that they can supply the balance load current. On the output side, two LLC converters are connected in parallel to share the load current and to reduce the current stress on the secondary windings and the rectifier diodes. In this article, the principle of operation, steady-state analysis and design considerations of the proposed converter are provided and discussed. Experiments with a laboratory prototype with a 24 V/21 A output for server power supply were performed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed converter.

Social implications of the Human Genome Project: Policy roundtable series and journals. Final progress report, March 15, 2001 - March 15, 2002

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seiguer, Erica

2002-12-30

This report reflects the activities of the Harvard Health Caucus at Harvard Medical School that were supported, in part, by the Department of Energy. The following policy roundtables and panels were held: Spring 2001 Policy Roundtable Series: The social implications of the Human Genome Project; Spring 2002 Policy Roundtable Series: Managing globalization to improve health; 13 February 2002 Keynote Address: The globalization of health; 25 February 2002 Healthier or Wealthier: Which comes first in the new global era?; 28 February 2002 The crisis of neglected diseases: Creating R&D incentives for diseases of developing countries; 7 March 2002 Health care education in the developing world: Bridging global and local health care practices; 20 March 2002 Building a legal framework for global health: How can the US and UN work to reduce global disparities?; 25 April 2002 The role of mass media and tobacco control efforts. Caucus organizational information is also included.

Nonlinear time series analysis with R

CERN Document Server

Huffaker, Ray; Rosa, Rodolfo

2017-01-01

In the process of data analysis, the investigator is often facing highly-volatile and random-appearing observed data. A vast body of literature shows that the assumption of underlying stochastic processes was not necessarily representing the nature of the processes under investigation and, when other tools were used, deterministic features emerged. Non Linear Time Series Analysis (NLTS) allows researchers to test whether observed volatility conceals systematic non linear behavior, and to rigorously characterize governing dynamics. Behavioral patterns detected by non linear time series analysis, along with scientific principles and other expert information, guide the specification of mechanistic models that serve to explain real-world behavior rather than merely reproducing it. Often there is a misconception regarding the complexity of the level of mathematics needed to understand and utilize the tools of NLTS (for instance Chaos theory). However, mathematics used in NLTS is much simpler than many other subjec...

Foreign direct investment and liberalization policies in Pakistan: An empirical analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rana Ejaz Ali Khan

2014-12-01

Full Text Available To enhance the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI and ultimately to increase the economic growth, the countries have implemented a variety of financial and trade liberalization policies in the last three decades. Pakistan also initiated such type of policies. This study makes an analysis of the impact of liberalization (financial and trade in Pakistan, on the inflow of FDI using the time series data of 1971–2009. The DF-GLS test is used to determine the level of integration, and autoregressive distributed lag model to examine the long-run relationship. The results indicate that liberalization indicators, like financial liberalization index and trade openness along with real interest rate, negatively affect the inflow of FDI in Pakistan. Tax revenue of product also negatively affects the FDI. On the other hand, the gross fixed capital formation, infrastructure, and inflation positively influence the FDI in Pakistan. The market size (proxied by real gross domestic product has shown insignificant effect on FDI.

Time-Series Analysis: A Cautionary Tale

Science.gov (United States)

Damadeo, Robert

2015-01-01

Time-series analysis has often been a useful tool in atmospheric science for deriving long-term trends in various atmospherically important parameters (e.g., temperature or the concentration of trace gas species). In particular, time-series analysis has been repeatedly applied to satellite datasets in order to derive the long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, which is a critical atmospheric constituent. However, many of the potential pitfalls relating to the non-uniform sampling of the datasets were often ignored and the results presented by the scientific community have been unknowingly biased. A newly developed and more robust application of this technique is applied to the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II version 7.0 ozone dataset and the previous biases and newly derived trends are presented.

DIY Solar Market Analysis Webinar Series: Solar Resource and Technical

Science.gov (United States)

Series: Solar Resource and Technical Potential DIY Solar Market Analysis Webinar Series: Solar Resource and Technical Potential Wednesday, June 11, 2014 As part of a Do-It-Yourself Solar Market Analysis Potential | State, Local, and Tribal Governments | NREL DIY Solar Market Analysis Webinar

Allan deviation analysis of financial return series

Science.gov (United States)

Hernández-Pérez, R.

2012-05-01

We perform a scaling analysis for the return series of different financial assets applying the Allan deviation (ADEV), which is used in the time and frequency metrology to characterize quantitatively the stability of frequency standards since it has demonstrated to be a robust quantity to analyze fluctuations of non-stationary time series for different observation intervals. The data used are opening price daily series for assets from different markets during a time span of around ten years. We found that the ADEV results for the return series at short scales resemble those expected for an uncorrelated series, consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. On the other hand, the ADEV results for absolute return series for short scales (first one or two decades) decrease following approximately a scaling relation up to a point that is different for almost each asset, after which the ADEV deviates from scaling, which suggests that the presence of clustering, long-range dependence and non-stationarity signatures in the series drive the results for large observation intervals.

Monetary Policy Analysis in Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Vesna

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The paper focuses on analysing monetary policy in Serbia. The National Bank of Serbia chose inflation targeting, which sets price stability as the main objective of monetary policy. To achieve this goal, the central bank uses different monetary policy instruments which analysis can provide us with the understanding of the main directions of their actions but also of the limitations of its application. Only through improvement of both instruments and monetary policy the central bank will create a better foundation for achieving monetary stability. In addition, the implementation of exchange rate policy is entrusted to the National Bank of Serbia, as the main regulator of the financial system. A mere use of managed floating exchange rate, as the chosen exchange rate regime, is an appropriate solution in the current economic circumstances and in accordance with the desired objective of monetary policy.

ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES FOR THE CURRENCY PAIR CROATIAN KUNA / EURO

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marko Martinović

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The domestic currency Croatian kuna (HRK was introduced in May 1995. To date, the Croatian National Bank (HNB, as a regulator and formulator of monetary policy in Croatia has operated a policy of stable exchange rate, typically referenced to the formal currency of the European Union euro (EUR. From the date of introduction of the euro 01/01/1999 until 01/01/2016 the value of the currency pair HRK / EUR changed in value by only 4.25% (HNB. Although the value of the Croatian kuna is relatively stable, there are some fluctuations on an annual level (e.g. in ­­­the last few years because of the global crisis as well as  on periodic levels within a year. The aim of this paper is to show the movement of the value of the currency pair since the beginning of 2002 to the present day (the time curve, analyze the correctness, trends and periodicity (seasonal behavior, if any exist.The research will be done using the method of Time Series Analysis, assuming that the external (global economy and internal factors (economic policy remain similar or the same. According to the results, further assessment of price developments in the period followed will be made by using the obtained predicative models. In the event that the curve contains the component of periodicity, the observed patterns will be studied further.

Entropic Analysis of Electromyography Time Series

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Kaufman, Miron; Sung, Paul

2005-03-01

We are in the process of assessing the effectiveness of fractal and entropic measures for the diagnostic of low back pain from surface electromyography (EMG) time series. Surface electromyography (EMG) is used to assess patients with low back pain. In a typical EMG measurement, the voltage is measured every millisecond. We observed back muscle fatiguing during one minute, which results in a time series with 60,000 entries. We characterize the complexity of time series by computing the Shannon entropy time dependence. The analysis of the time series from different relevant muscles from healthy and low back pain (LBP) individuals provides evidence that the level of variability of back muscle activities is much larger for healthy individuals than for individuals with LBP. In general the time dependence of the entropy shows a crossover from a diffusive regime to a regime characterized by long time correlations (self organization) at about 0.01s.

Carbon Sequestration in Colorado's Lands: A Spatial and Policy Analysis

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Brandt, N.; Brazeau, A.; Browning, K.; Meier, R.

2017-12-01

Managing landscapes to enhance terrestrial carbon sequestration has significant potential to mitigate climate change. While a previous carbon baseline assessment in Colorado has been published (Conant et al, 2007), our study pulls from the existing literature to conduct an updated baseline assessment of carbon stocks and a unique review of carbon policies in Colorado. Through a multi-level spatial analysis based in GIS and informed by a literature review, we established a carbon stock baseline and ran four land use and carbon stock projection scenarios using Monte Carlo simulations. We identified 11 key policy recommendations for improving Colorado's carbon stocks, and evaluated each using Bardach's policy matrix approach (Bardach, 2012). We utilized a series of case studies to support our policy recommendations. We found that Colorado's lands have a carbon stock of 3,334 MMT CO2eq, with Forests and Woodlands holding the largest stocks, at 1,490 and 774 MMT CO2eq respectively. Avoided conversion of all Grasslands, Forests, and Wetlands in Colorado projected over 40 years would increase carbon stocks by 32 MMT CO2eq, 1,053 MMT CO2eq, and 36 MMT CO2eq, respectively. Over the 40-year study period, Forests and Woodlands areas are projected to shrink while Shrublands and Developed areas are projected to grow. Those projections suggest sizable increases in area of future wildfires and development in Colorado. We found that numerous policy opportunities to sequester carbon exist at different jurisdictional levels and across land cover types. The largest opportunities were found in state-level policies and policies impacting Forests, Grasslands, and Wetlands. The passage of statewide emission reduction legislation has the highest potential to impact carbon sequestration, although political and administrative feasibility of this option are relatively low. This study contributes to the broader field of carbon sequestration literature by examining the nexus of carbon stocks

The Statistical Analysis of Time Series

CERN Document Server

Anderson, T W

2011-01-01

The Wiley Classics Library consists of selected books that have become recognized classics in their respective fields. With these new unabridged and inexpensive editions, Wiley hopes to extend the life of these important works by making them available to future generations of mathematicians and scientists. Currently available in the Series: T. W. Anderson Statistical Analysis of Time Series T. S. Arthanari & Yadolah Dodge Mathematical Programming in Statistics Emil Artin Geometric Algebra Norman T. J. Bailey The Elements of Stochastic Processes with Applications to the Natural Sciences George

The argument for pharmaceutical policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Traulsen, Janine Morgall; Almarsdóttir, Anna Birna

2005-02-01

Pharmaceutical policy is a global concern. It has become a hot political topic in most countries--developed as well as developing--and can be found on the agenda of international organizations such as WHO, OECD, EU, WTO and even the World Bank. Pharmaceutical policy affects everyone in the world of pharmacy and it is therefore imperative that it be understood, discussed and debated within the pharmacy profession and included in the curriculum of schools of pharmacy. This, the first article in a series, argues for the importance of the academic discipline of pharmaceutical policy analysis and the involvement of pharmacists in this endeavour. The aim of the authors is to stimulate an informed and critical appreciation of this field. The authors begin with an introduction to the field of pharmaceutical policy, introducing several important concepts and current trends including: medicines regulation; how pharmaceutical policy is made; pharmaceutical policy as a dynamic process; and the new public health as a global issue. The article ends with a short description of the remaining five articles in the series which will deal with important aspects of pharmaceutical policy. The topics include: economic pressures on health care systems; drug utilization from the clinical viewpoint (rational use of medicines); the impact of pharmaceutical policy on patients and the patient impact on pharmaceutical policy; the professional perspective; and finally the last article which deals with studying and evaluating pharmaceutical policy.

Fuelwood policies for the 1990s

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soussan, J.; Mercer, D.E. (Duke Univ., Durham, NC (US). Center for Resource and Environmental Policy Research); O' Keefe, P. (Newcastle upon Tyne Polytechnic (United Kingdom) ETC UK (GB))

1992-02-01

The paper provides a review of policy issues and options associated with the role of biomass as an energy resource. It seeks to demonstrate how such policies can be set in the context of local circumstances. The analysis focuses on the relationship of fuelwood problems to other development issues, recognizing that these problems are primarily a consequence of the interaction of environmental and economic forces at a local level. A series of fundamental policy reforms are an essential pre-condition to finding local answers to fuelwood problems. These policy reforms are the main focus of this paper. (author).

An analysis of policy success and failure in formal evaluations of Australia's national mental health strategy (1992-2012).

Science.gov (United States)

Grace, Francesca C; Meurk, Carla S; Head, Brian W; Hall, Wayne D; Harris, Meredith G; Whiteford, Harvey A

2017-05-30

Heightened fiscal constraints, increases in the chronic disease burden and in consumer expectations are among several factors contributing to the global interest in evidence-informed health policy. The present article builds on previous work that explored how the Australian Federal Government applied five instruments of policy, or policy levers, to implement a series of reforms under the Australian National Mental Health Strategy (NMHS). The present article draws on theoretical insights from political science to analyse the relative successes and failures of these levers, as portrayed in formal government evaluations of the NMHS. Documentary analysis of six evaluation documents corresponding to three National Mental Health Plans was undertaken. Both the content and approach of these government-funded, independently conducted evaluations were appraised. An overall improvement was apparent in the development and application of policy levers over time. However, this finding should be interpreted with caution due to variations in evaluation approach according to Plan and policy lever. Tabulated summaries of the success and failure of each policy initiative, ordered by lever type, are provided to establish a resource that could be consulted for future policy-making. This analysis highlights the complexities of health service reform and underscores the limitations of narrowly focused empirical approaches. A theoretical framework is provided that could inform the evaluation and targeted selection of appropriate policy levers in mental health.

Representations of women and drug use in policy: A critical policy analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Natalie; Bull, Melissa

2018-06-01

Contemporary research in the drugs field has demonstrated a number of gender differences in patterns and experiences of substance use, and the design and provision of gender-responsive interventions has been identified as an important policy issue. Consequently, whether and how domestic drug policies attend to women and gender issues is an important question for investigation. This article presents a policy audit and critical analysis of Australian national and state and territory policy documents. It identifies and discusses two key styles of problematisation of women's drug use in policy: 1) drug use and its effect on women's reproductive role (including a focus on pregnant women and women who are mothers), and 2) drug use and its relationship to women's vulnerability to harm (including violent and sexual victimisation, trauma, and mental health issues). Whilst these are important areas for policy to address, we argue that such representations of women who use drugs tend to reinforce particular understandings of women and drug use, while at the same time contributing to areas of 'policy silence' or neglect. In particular, the policy documents analysed are largely silent about the harm reduction needs of all women, as well as the needs of women who are not mothers, young women, older women, transwomen or other women deemed to be outside of dominant normative reproductive discourse. This analysis is important because understanding how women's drug use is problematised and identifying areas of policy silence provides a foundation for redressing gaps in policy, and for assessing the likely effectiveness of current and future policy approaches. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stochastic time series analysis of hydrology data for water resources

Science.gov (United States)

Sathish, S.; Khadar Babu, S. K.

2017-11-01

The prediction to current publication of stochastic time series analysis in hydrology and seasonal stage. The different statistical tests for predicting the hydrology time series on Thomas-Fiering model. The hydrology time series of flood flow have accept a great deal of consideration worldwide. The concentration of stochastic process areas of time series analysis method are expanding with develop concerns about seasonal periods and global warming. The recent trend by the researchers for testing seasonal periods in the hydrologic flowseries using stochastic process on Thomas-Fiering model. The present article proposed to predict the seasonal periods in hydrology using Thomas-Fiering model.

41 CFR 105-53.141 - Office of Policy Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Management Regulations System (Continued) GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION 53-STATEMENT OF ORGANIZATION AND FUNCTIONS Central Offices § 105-53.141 Office of Policy Analysis. The Office of Policy Analysis, headed by..., independent, objective information concerning management policies and programs, and technical and analytical...

Brief analysis and use for reference on nuclear energy policies in US

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma Chenghui

2007-01-01

This paper conducts a study on new round of nuclear energy renaissance program in US. During this program progressive evolution, American government plays an essential role, among others, to promote development of nuclear energy, a series of favorable policies and suitable measures were carried out by the government, which involved to relating policies researching and stipulating, finance, revenue, and insurance etc. The aim of those policies and measures was clearly to assure the achievement of the nuclear energy development program in the future. Upon the basis of this study, it shows us a comparison between China and US for their respective nuclear energy policies and some recommendations for Chinese nuclear energy policies are presented finally. (author)

Cross-impacts analysis development and energy policy analysis applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roop, J.M.; Scheer, R.M.; Stacey, G.S.

1986-12-01

Purpose of this report is to describe the cross-impact analysis process and microcomputer software developed for the Office of Policy, Planning, and Analysis (PPA) of DOE. First introduced in 1968, cross-impact analysis is a technique that produces scenarios of future conditions and possibilities. Cross-impact analysis has several unique attributes that make it a tool worth examining, especially in the current climate when the outlook for the economy and several of the key energy markets is uncertain. Cross-impact analysis complements the econometric, engineering, systems dynamics, or trend approaches already in use at DOE. Cross-impact analysis produces self-consistent scenarios in the broadest sense and can include interaction between the economy, technology, society and the environment. Energy policy analyses that couple broad scenarios of the future with detailed forecasting can produce more powerful results than scenario analysis or forecasts can produce alone.

Time averaging, ageing and delay analysis of financial time series

Science.gov (United States)

Cherstvy, Andrey G.; Vinod, Deepak; Aghion, Erez; Chechkin, Aleksei V.; Metzler, Ralf

2017-06-01

We introduce three strategies for the analysis of financial time series based on time averaged observables. These comprise the time averaged mean squared displacement (MSD) as well as the ageing and delay time methods for varying fractions of the financial time series. We explore these concepts via statistical analysis of historic time series for several Dow Jones Industrial indices for the period from the 1960s to 2015. Remarkably, we discover a simple universal law for the delay time averaged MSD. The observed features of the financial time series dynamics agree well with our analytical results for the time averaged measurables for geometric Brownian motion, underlying the famed Black-Scholes-Merton model. The concepts we promote here are shown to be useful for financial data analysis and enable one to unveil new universal features of stock market dynamics.

Multidimensional scaling analysis of financial time series based on modified cross-sample entropy methods

Science.gov (United States)

He, Jiayi; Shang, Pengjian; Xiong, Hui

2018-06-01

Stocks, as the concrete manifestation of financial time series with plenty of potential information, are often used in the study of financial time series. In this paper, we utilize the stock data to recognize their patterns through out the dissimilarity matrix based on modified cross-sample entropy, then three-dimensional perceptual maps of the results are provided through multidimensional scaling method. Two modified multidimensional scaling methods are proposed in this paper, that is, multidimensional scaling based on Kronecker-delta cross-sample entropy (MDS-KCSE) and multidimensional scaling based on permutation cross-sample entropy (MDS-PCSE). These two methods use Kronecker-delta based cross-sample entropy and permutation based cross-sample entropy to replace the distance or dissimilarity measurement in classical multidimensional scaling (MDS). Multidimensional scaling based on Chebyshev distance (MDSC) is employed to provide a reference for comparisons. Our analysis reveals a clear clustering both in synthetic data and 18 indices from diverse stock markets. It implies that time series generated by the same model are easier to have similar irregularity than others, and the difference in the stock index, which is caused by the country or region and the different financial policies, can reflect the irregularity in the data. In the synthetic data experiments, not only the time series generated by different models can be distinguished, the one generated under different parameters of the same model can also be detected. In the financial data experiment, the stock indices are clearly divided into five groups. Through analysis, we find that they correspond to five regions, respectively, that is, Europe, North America, South America, Asian-Pacific (with the exception of mainland China), mainland China and Russia. The results also demonstrate that MDS-KCSE and MDS-PCSE provide more effective divisions in experiments than MDSC.

An econometric time-series analysis of global CO2 concentrations and emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cohen, B.C.; Labys, W.C.; Eliste, P.

2001-01-01

This paper extends previous work on the econometric modelling of CO 2 concentrations and emissions. The importance of such work rests in the fact that models of the Cohen-Labys variety represent the only alternative to scientific or physical models of CO 2 accumulations whose parameters are inferred rather than estimated. The stimulation for this study derives from the recent discovery of oscillations and cycles in the net biospheric flux of CO 2 . A variety of time series tests is thus used to search for the presence of normality, stationarity, cyclicality and stochastic processes in global CO 2 emissions and concentrations series. Given the evidence for cyclicality of a short-run nature in the spectra of these series, both structural time series and error correction model are applied to confirm the frequency and amplitude of these cycles. Our results suggest new possibilities for determining equilibrium levels of CO 2 concentrations and subsequently revising stabilization policies. (Author)

Comparative analysis of evaluation techniques for transport policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Browne, David; Ryan, Lisa

2011-01-01

The objective of this paper is to examine and compare the use of a number of policy evaluation tools, which can be used to measure the impact of transport policies and programmes as part of a strategic environmental assessment (SEA) or sustainability appraisal. The evaluation tools that were examined include cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). It was concluded that both CEA and CBA are useful for estimating the costs and/or benefits associated with transport policies but are constrained by the difficulty in quantifying non-market impacts and monetising total costs and benefits. Furthermore, CEA is limited to identifying the most 'cost-effective policy' for achieving a single, narrowly defined objective, usually greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction and is, therefore, not suitable for evaluating policy options with ancillary costs or a variety of potential benefits. Thus, CBA or CEA evaluation should be complemented by a complete environmental and socio-economic impact assessment approach such as MCDA. This method allows for participatory analysis and qualitative assessment but is subject to caveats such as subjectivity and value-laden judgments.

Metagenomics meets time series analysis: unraveling microbial community dynamics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Faust, K.; Lahti, L.M.; Gonze, D.; Vos, de W.M.; Raes, J.

2015-01-01

The recent increase in the number of microbial time series studies offers new insights into the stability and dynamics of microbial communities, from the world's oceans to human microbiota. Dedicated time series analysis tools allow taking full advantage of these data. Such tools can reveal periodic

Evaluation and Policy Analysis: A Communicative Framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cynthia Wallat

1997-07-01

Full Text Available A major challenge for the next generation of students of human development is to help shape the paradigms by which we analyze and evaluate public policies for children and families. Advocates of building research and policy connections point to health care and stress experiences across home, school, and community as critical policy issues that expand the scope of contexts and outcomes studied. At a minimum, development researchers and practitioners will need to be well versed in available methods of inquiry; they will need to be "methodologically multilingual" when conducting evaluation and policy analysis, producing reports, and reporting their interpretations to consumer and policy audiences. This article suggests how traditional approaches to policy inquiry can be reconsidered in light of these research inquiry and communicative skills needed by all policy researchers. A fifteen year review of both policy and discourse processes research is presented to suggest ways to conduct policy studies within a communicative framework.

Applied time series analysis and innovative computing

CERN Document Server

Ao, Sio-Iong

2010-01-01

This text is a systematic, state-of-the-art introduction to the use of innovative computing paradigms as an investigative tool for applications in time series analysis. It includes frontier case studies based on recent research.

Multiresolution analysis of Bursa Malaysia KLCI time series

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Dghais, Amel Abdoullah Ahmed

2017-05-01

In general, a time series is simply a sequence of numbers collected at regular intervals over a period. Financial time series data processing is concerned with the theory and practice of processing asset price over time, such as currency, commodity data, and stock market data. The primary aim of this study is to understand the fundamental characteristics of selected financial time series by using the time as well as the frequency domain analysis. After that prediction can be executed for the desired system for in sample forecasting. In this study, multiresolution analysis which the assist of discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) and maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) will be used to pinpoint special characteristics of Bursa Malaysia KLCI (Kuala Lumpur Composite Index) daily closing prices and return values. In addition, further case study discussions include the modeling of Bursa Malaysia KLCI using linear ARIMA with wavelets to address how multiresolution approach improves fitting and forecasting results.

A Policy Analysis Perspective on Ecological Restoration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Susan Baker

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Using a simple stages model of the policy process, we explore the politics of ecological restoration using an array of examples drawn across sector, different size and scale, and from different countries. A policy analysis perspective reveals how, at both the program and project levels, ecological restoration operates within a complex and dynamic interplay between technical decision making, ideologies, and interest politics. Viewed through the stages model, restoration policy involves negotiating nature across stages in the policy making process, including agenda setting, policy formulation, implementation, and evaluation. The stages model is a useful heuristic devise; however, this linear model assumes that policy makers approach the issue rationally. In practice, ecological restoration policy takes place in the context of different distributions of power between the various public and private actors involved at the different stages of restoration policy making. This allows us to reiterate the point that ecological restoration is best seen not only as a technical task but as a social and political project.

Policy-Making Theory as an Analytical Framework in Policy Analysis: Implications for Research Design and Professional Advocacy.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheldon, Michael R

2016-01-01

Policy studies are a recent addition to the American Physical Therapy Association's Research Agenda and are critical to our understanding of various federal, state, local, and organizational policies on the provision of physical therapist services across the continuum of care. Policy analyses that help to advance the profession's various policy agendas will require relevant theoretical frameworks to be credible. The purpose of this perspective article is to: (1) demonstrate the use of a policy-making theory as an analytical framework in a policy analysis and (2) discuss how sound policy analysis can assist physical therapists in becoming more effective change agents, policy advocates, and partners with other relevant stakeholder groups. An exploratory study of state agency policy responses to address work-related musculoskeletal disorders is provided as a contemporary example to illustrate key points and to demonstrate the importance of selecting a relevant analytical framework based on the context of the policy issue under investigation. © 2016 American Physical Therapy Association.

Fourier analysis of time series an introduction

CERN Document Server

Bloomfield, Peter

2000-01-01

A new, revised edition of a yet unrivaled work on frequency domain analysis Long recognized for his unique focus on frequency domain methods for the analysis of time series data as well as for his applied, easy-to-understand approach, Peter Bloomfield brings his well-known 1976 work thoroughly up to date. With a minimum of mathematics and an engaging, highly rewarding style, Bloomfield provides in-depth discussions of harmonic regression, harmonic analysis, complex demodulation, and spectrum analysis. All methods are clearly illustrated using examples of specific data sets, while ample

Analysis of distributed-generation photovoltaic deployment, installation time and cost, market barriers, and policies in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Fang; Deng, Hao; Margolis, Robert; Su, Jun

2015-01-01

Beginning in 2013, China's photovoltaic (PV) market-development strategy witnessed a series of policy changes aimed at making distributed-generation PV (DG PV) development an equal priority with large-scale PV development. This article reviews the DG PV policy changes since 2013 and examines their effect on China's domestic DG PV market. Based on a 2014 survey of DG PV market and policy participants, we present cost and time breakdowns for installing DG PV projects in China, and we identify the main barriers to DG PV installation. We also use a cash flow model to determine the relative economic attractiveness of DG PV in several eastern provinces in China. The main factors constraining DG PV deployment in China include financial barriers resulting from the structure of the self-consumption feed-in tariff (FIT), ambivalence about DG PV within grid companies, complicated ownership structures for buildings/rooftops/businesses, and the inherent time lag in policy implementation from the central government to provincial and local governments. We conclude with policy implications and suggestions in the context of DG PV policy changes the Chinese government implemented in September 2014. -- Highlights: •We review China's distributed PV market development and policy changes since 2013. •We present cost and time requirements for installing distributed PV in China. •We conduct IRR analysis of distributed PV under different policy frameworks. •We identify barriers to China's distributed PV, especially feed-in tariff barriers

Time series analysis of ozone data in Isfahan

Science.gov (United States)

Omidvari, M.; Hassanzadeh, S.; Hosseinibalam, F.

2008-07-01

Time series analysis used to investigate the stratospheric ozone formation and decomposition processes. Different time series methods are applied to detect the reason for extreme high ozone concentrations for each season. Data was convert into seasonal component and frequency domain, the latter has been evaluated by using the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT), spectral analysis. The power density spectrum estimated from the ozone data showed peaks at cycle duration of 22, 20, 36, 186, 365 and 40 days. According to seasonal component analysis most fluctuation was in 1999 and 2000, but the least fluctuation was in 2003. The best correlation between ozone and sun radiation was found in 2000. Other variables which are not available cause to this fluctuation in the 1999 and 2001. The trend of ozone is increasing in 1999 and is decreasing in other years.

A policy analysis of the problem of the reproductive health of women in the workplace.

Science.gov (United States)

Kotch, J B; Ossler, C C; Howze, D C

1984-06-01

Many occupations in which women comprise the majority of the workforce involve exposure to biological, physical, and chemical hazards. Potential reproductive effects of work-related substances include impaired reproductive capacity, mutagenesis, teratogenesis, and transplacental carcinogenesis. However, female-dominated occupations tend to be only minimally regulated by the US Occupational Safety and Health Administration, and the corporate response to the issue of reproductive and fetal health has been to institute "protective discrimination policies" such as the demotion or exclusion of women of childbearing age from certain jobs. This article rates the effectiveness of alternate policy responses to increase women's occupational health and safety through use of a series of analysis criteria: equity, efficiency, preference satisfaction, right to privacy, avoidance of stigma, and unintended consequences. Policy options include the following: 1) do nothing, 2) leave current policies intact while supporting a research program to document the health consequences of specific occupational risks to women's reproductive health, 3) restrict women for who pregnancy is not ruled out from occupations or work areas known or suspected to be hazardous, 4) improve working conditions for all women, and 5) improve working conditions for all workers. Policy analysis suggests the working conditions of all workers should be improved. This alternative reduces inequity, eliminates stigma, maintains privacy, and honors preferences. Implementation of this policy would be expensive, requiring an increase in knowledge of the effects of industrial substances on female and male reproductive health, expansion of the technical capacity to control occupational hazards, and an increase in the resources of programs that monitor and regulate occupational health. However, this approach is in accord with growing concern that workers should not have to compromise their health to keep their jobs.

Multivariate time series analysis with R and financial applications

CERN Document Server

Tsay, Ruey S

2013-01-01

Since the publication of his first book, Analysis of Financial Time Series, Ruey Tsay has become one of the most influential and prominent experts on the topic of time series. Different from the traditional and oftentimes complex approach to multivariate (MV) time series, this sequel book emphasizes structural specification, which results in simplified parsimonious VARMA modeling and, hence, eases comprehension. Through a fundamental balance between theory and applications, the book supplies readers with an accessible approach to financial econometric models and their applications to real-worl

Institutional analysis for energy policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morris, F.A.; Cole, R.J.

1980-07-01

This report summarizes principles, techniques, and other information for doing institutional analyses in the area of energy policy. The report was prepared to support DOE's Regional Issues Identification and Assessment (RIIA) program. RIIA identifies environmental, health, safety, socioeconomic, and institutional issues that could accompany hypothetical future scenarios for energy consumption and production on a regional basis. Chapter 1 provides some theoretical grounding in institutional analysis. Chapter 2 provides information on constructing institutional maps of the processes for bringing on line energy technologies and facilities contemplated in RIIA scenarios. Chapter 3 assesses the institutional constraints, opportunities, and impacts that affect whether these technologies and facilities would in fact be developed. Chapters 4 and 5 show how institutional analysis can support use of exercises such as RIIA in planning institutional change and making energy policy choices.

Effect of UK policy on medical migration: a time series analysis of physician registration data.

Science.gov (United States)

Blacklock, Claire; Heneghan, Carl; Mant, David; Ward, Alison M

2012-09-25

Economically developed countries have recruited large numbers of overseas health workers to fill domestic shortages. Recognition of the negative impact this can have on health care in developing countries led the United Kingdom Department of Health to issue a Code of Practice for National Health Service (NHS) employers in 1999 providing ethical guidance on international recruitment. Case reports suggest this guidance had limited influence in the context of other NHS policy priorities. The temporal association between trends in new professional registrations from doctors qualifying overseas and relevant United Kingdom government policy is reported. Government policy documents were identified by a literature review; further information was obtained, when appropriate, through requests made under the Freedom of Information Act. Data on new professional registration of doctors were obtained from the General Medical Council (GMC). New United Kingdom professional registrations by doctors trained in Africa and south Asia more than doubled from 3105 in 2001 to 7343 in 2003, as NHS Trusts sought to achieve recruitment targets specified in the 2000 NHS Plan; this occurred despite ethical guidance to avoid active recruitment of doctors from resource-poor countries. Registration of such doctors declined subsequently, but in response to other government policy initiatives. A fall in registration of South African-trained doctors from 3206 in 2003 to 4 in 2004 followed a Memorandum of Understanding with South Africa signed in 2003. Registrations from India and Pakistan fell from a peak of 4626 in 2004 to 1169 in 2007 following changes in United Kingdom immigration law in 2005 and 2006. Since 2007, registration of new doctors trained outside the European Economic Area has remained relatively stable, but in 2010 the United Kingdom still registered 722 new doctors trained in Africa and 1207 trained in India and Pakistan. Ethical guidance was ineffective in preventing mass

Time series analysis methods and applications for flight data

CERN Document Server

Zhang, Jianye

2017-01-01

This book focuses on different facets of flight data analysis, including the basic goals, methods, and implementation techniques. As mass flight data possesses the typical characteristics of time series, the time series analysis methods and their application for flight data have been illustrated from several aspects, such as data filtering, data extension, feature optimization, similarity search, trend monitoring, fault diagnosis, and parameter prediction, etc. An intelligent information-processing platform for flight data has been established to assist in aircraft condition monitoring, training evaluation and scientific maintenance. The book will serve as a reference resource for people working in aviation management and maintenance, as well as researchers and engineers in the fields of data analysis and data mining.

Time series analysis and its applications with R examples

CERN Document Server

Shumway, Robert H

2017-01-01

The fourth edition of this popular graduate textbook, like its predecessors, presents a balanced and comprehensive treatment of both time and frequency domain methods with accompanying theory. Numerous examples using nontrivial data illustrate solutions to problems such as discovering natural and anthropogenic climate change, evaluating pain perception experiments using functional magnetic resonance imaging, and monitoring a nuclear test ban treaty. The book is designed as a textbook for graduate level students in the physical, biological, and social sciences and as a graduate level text in statistics. Some parts may also serve as an undergraduate introductory course. Theory and methodology are separated to allow presentations on different levels. In addition to coverage of classical methods of time series regression, ARIMA models, spectral analysis and state-space models, the text includes modern developments including categorical time series analysis, multivariate spectral methods, long memory series, nonli...

Policy Analysis, International Relations, and European Governance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Mads Christian Dagnis; Tatham, Michaël

2017-01-01

The article highlights the rationale of the special issue in terms of its objectives and guiding principles. It maps different evolutions and challenges within three analytical streams (1) regarding the field of policy analysis, (2) concerning the interaction between domestic and international...... affairs, and (3) with regards to the transformation of European Union governance in troubled times. These three research avenues highlight how not only European governance itself has evolved in a changing world, but also how the analysis of interests, institutions, and policy-making has morphed...

Graphical Data Analysis on the Circle: Wrap-Around Time Series Plots for (Interrupted) Time Series Designs.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Beasley, William Howard; Schuelke, Matthew

2014-01-01

Many data structures, particularly time series data, are naturally seasonal, cyclical, or otherwise circular. Past graphical methods for time series have focused on linear plots. In this article, we move graphical analysis onto the circle. We focus on 2 particular methods, one old and one new. Rose diagrams are circular histograms and can be produced in several different forms using the RRose software system. In addition, we propose, develop, illustrate, and provide software support for a new circular graphical method, called Wrap-Around Time Series Plots (WATS Plots), which is a graphical method useful to support time series analyses in general but in particular in relation to interrupted time series designs. We illustrate the use of WATS Plots with an interrupted time series design evaluating the effect of the Oklahoma City bombing on birthrates in Oklahoma County during the 10 years surrounding the bombing of the Murrah Building in Oklahoma City. We compare WATS Plots with linear time series representations and overlay them with smoothing and error bands. Each method is shown to have advantages in relation to the other; in our example, the WATS Plots more clearly show the existence and effect size of the fertility differential.

Interpretation and Analysis of Privacy Policies of Websites in India

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dhotre, Prashant Shantaram; Olesen, Henning; Khajuria, Samant

2016-01-01

the conditions specified in the policy document. So, ideally the privacy policies should be readable and provide sufficient information to empower users to make knowledgeable decisions. Thus, we have examined more than 50 privacy policies and discussed the content analysis in this paper. We discovered...... on information collection methods, purpose, sharing entities names and data transit. In this study, the 11 % privacy policies are compliance with privacy standards which denotes other privacy policies are less committed to support transparency, choice, and accountability in the process of information collection...... that the policies are not only unstructured but also described in complicated language. Our analysis shows that the user data security measures are nonspecific and unsatisfactory in 57% privacy policies. In spite of huge amount of information collection, the privacy policies does not have clear description...

Analysis of the Main Factors Influencing Food Production in China Based on Time Series Trend Chart

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Shuangjin; WANG; Jianying; LI

2014-01-01

Based on the annual sample data on food production in China since the reform and opening up,we select 8 main factors influencing the total food production( growing area,application rate of chemical fertilizer,effective irrigation area,the affected area,total machinery power,food production cost index,food production price index,financial funds for supporting agriculture,farmers and countryside),and put them into categories of material input,resources and environment,and policy factors. Using the factor analysis,we carry out the multi-angle analysis of these typical influencing factors one by one through the time series trend chart. It is found that application rate of chemical fertilizer,the growing area of food crops and drought-affected area become the key factors affecting food production. On this basis,we set forth the corresponding recommendations for improving the comprehensive food production capacity.

The history of NATO TNF policy: The role of studies, analysis and exercises conference proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rinne, R.L.

1994-02-01

This conference was organized to study and analyze the role of simulation, analysis, modeling, and exercises in the history of NATO policy. The premise was not that the results of past studies will apply to future policy, but rather that understanding what influenced the decision process -- and how -- would be of value. The structure of the conference was built around discussion panels. The panels were augmented by a series of papers and presentations focusing on particular TNF events, issues, studies, or exercises. The conference proceedings consist of three volumes. Volume 1 contains the conference introduction, agenda, biographical sketches of principal participants, and analytical summary of the presentations and panels. This volume contains a short introduction and the papers and presentations from the conference. Volume 3 contains selected papers by Brig. Gen. Robert C. Richardson III (Ret.). Individual papers in this volume were abstracted and indexed for the database

Policy research and analysis organizations: an account of recent ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Drawing from interviews, archival documents and a range of other sources, this article takes stock of key public policy research and analysis organizations in Ethiopia. It sheds light on the significance of professionalization of policy analysis and its contributions to closing the gap between knowledge and policymaking, offers ...

A taylor series approach to survival analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brodsky, J.B.; Groer, P.G.

1984-09-01

A method of survival analysis using hazard functions is developed. The method uses the well known mathematical theory for Taylor Series. Hypothesis tests of the adequacy of many statistical models, including proportional hazards and linear and/or quadratic dose responses, are obtained. A partial analysis of leukemia mortality in the Life Span Study cohort is used as an example. Furthermore, a relatively robust estimation procedure for the proportional hazards model is proposed. (author)

Lecture notes for Advanced Time Series Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henrik; Holst, Jan

1997-01-01

A first version of this notes was used at the lectures in Grenoble, and they are now extended and improved (together with Jan Holst), and used in Ph.D. courses on Advanced Time Series Analysis at IMM and at the Department of Mathematical Statistics, University of Lund, 1994, 1997, ...

Multiscale multifractal multiproperty analysis of financial time series based on Rényi entropy

Science.gov (United States)

Yujun, Yang; Jianping, Li; Yimei, Yang

This paper introduces a multiscale multifractal multiproperty analysis based on Rényi entropy (3MPAR) method to analyze short-range and long-range characteristics of financial time series, and then applies this method to the five time series of five properties in four stock indices. Combining the two analysis techniques of Rényi entropy and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA), the 3MPAR method focuses on the curves of Rényi entropy and generalized Hurst exponent of five properties of four stock time series, which allows us to study more universal and subtle fluctuation characteristics of financial time series. By analyzing the curves of the Rényi entropy and the profiles of the logarithm distribution of MFDFA of five properties of four stock indices, the 3MPAR method shows some fluctuation characteristics of the financial time series and the stock markets. Then, it also shows a richer information of the financial time series by comparing the profile of five properties of four stock indices. In this paper, we not only focus on the multifractality of time series but also the fluctuation characteristics of the financial time series and subtle differences in the time series of different properties. We find that financial time series is far more complex than reported in some research works using one property of time series.

Multichannel biomedical time series clustering via hierarchical probabilistic latent semantic analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jin; Sun, Xiangping; Nahavandi, Saeid; Kouzani, Abbas; Wu, Yuchuan; She, Mary

2014-11-01

Biomedical time series clustering that automatically groups a collection of time series according to their internal similarity is of importance for medical record management and inspection such as bio-signals archiving and retrieval. In this paper, a novel framework that automatically groups a set of unlabelled multichannel biomedical time series according to their internal structural similarity is proposed. Specifically, we treat a multichannel biomedical time series as a document and extract local segments from the time series as words. We extend a topic model, i.e., the Hierarchical probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (H-pLSA), which was originally developed for visual motion analysis to cluster a set of unlabelled multichannel time series. The H-pLSA models each channel of the multichannel time series using a local pLSA in the first layer. The topics learned in the local pLSA are then fed to a global pLSA in the second layer to discover the categories of multichannel time series. Experiments on a dataset extracted from multichannel Electrocardiography (ECG) signals demonstrate that the proposed method performs better than previous state-of-the-art approaches and is relatively robust to the variations of parameters including length of local segments and dictionary size. Although the experimental evaluation used the multichannel ECG signals in a biometric scenario, the proposed algorithm is a universal framework for multichannel biomedical time series clustering according to their structural similarity, which has many applications in biomedical time series management. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time series analysis of barometric pressure data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

La Rocca, Paola; Riggi, Francesco; Riggi, Daniele

2010-01-01

Time series of atmospheric pressure data, collected over a period of several years, were analysed to provide undergraduate students with educational examples of application of simple statistical methods of analysis. In addition to basic methods for the analysis of periodicities, a comparison of two forecast models, one based on autoregression algorithms, and the other making use of an artificial neural network, was made. Results show that the application of artificial neural networks may give slightly better results compared to traditional methods.

Economic and policy analysis for solar PV systems in Indiana

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jung, Jinho; Tyner, Wallace E.

2014-01-01

In recent years, the energy market in the US and globally is expanding the production of renewable energy. Solar energy for electricity is also expanding in the US. Indiana is one of the states expanding solar energy with solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Therefore, we conduct benefit cost analysis with several uncertain input variables to determine the economics of adopting solar PV systems in Indiana based on policy instruments that could increase adoption of solar PV systems. The specific objectives are analyses of the cost distribution of solar PV systems compared with grid electricity in homes and estimating the probability that solar can be cheaper than electricity from grids under different policy combinations. We first do the analysis under current policy and then the analysis under potential policy options for a variety of scenarios. Also, the results inform government policy makers on how effective the alternative policies for encouraging solar PV systems are. The results show that current policies are important in reducing the cost of solar PV systems. However, with current policies, there is only 50–50 chance of solar being cheaper than electricity from grids. If potential policies are implemented, solar PV systems can be more economical than grid electricity. - Highlights: • We investigate the economics of solar PV systems based on policy instruments. • We do scenario analyses under different combinations of policies. • We examine the probability of solar being cheaper than grid electricity for each scenario. • With current policies, there is 50–50 chance of solar being cheaper than the grid. • With depreciation and carbon tax, solar is much more economical than the grid

The 2011 Estonian High School Language Reform in the Context of Critical Language Policy and Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Skerrett, Delaney Michael

2014-01-01

This paper seeks to situate Estonian language use and policy within the emerging field of critical language policy and planning (CLPP) by investigating the discourses that frame linguistic behaviour. This done by way of an analysis of a series of interviews carried out with key actors in language policy in Estonia. The discourses framing language…

Handbook of Time Series Analysis Recent Theoretical Developments and Applications

CERN Document Server

Schelter, Björn; Timmer, Jens

2006-01-01

This handbook provides an up-to-date survey of current research topics and applications of time series analysis methods written by leading experts in their fields. It covers recent developments in univariate as well as bivariate and multivariate time series analysis techniques ranging from physics' to life sciences' applications. Each chapter comprises both methodological aspects and applications to real world complex systems, such as the human brain or Earth's climate. Covering an exceptionally broad spectrum of topics, beginners, experts and practitioners who seek to understand the latest de

Interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy: A critical analysis of China's policy approach to renewable energies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Sufang; Andrews-Speed, Philip; Zhao, Xiaoli; He, Yongxiu

2013-01-01

This paper analyzes China's policy approach to renewable energies and assesses how effectively China has met the ideal of appropriate interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy. First we briefly discuss the interactions between these two policies. Then we outline China's key renewable energy and renewable industrial policies and find that China's government has well recognized the need for this policy interaction. After that, we study the achievements and problems in China's wind and solar PV sector during 2005–2012 and argue that China's policy approach to renewable energies has placed priority first on developing a renewable energy manufacturing industry and only second on renewable energy itself, and it has not effectively met the ideal of appropriate interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy. Lastly, we make an in-depth analysis of the three ideas underlying this policy approach, that is, the green development idea, the low-carbon leadership idea and indigenous innovation idea. We conclude that Chinas' policy approach to renewable energies needs to enhance the interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy. The paper contributes to a deeper understanding of China's policy strategy toward renewable energies. -- Highlights: •Interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy are discussed. •China's key renewable energy and renewable energy industrial policies are outlined. •Two empirical cases illustrate China's policy approach to renewable energies. •We argue that China needs to enhance the interactions between the two policies. •Three ideas underlie China's policy approach to renewable energies

Time-series analysis of Nigeria rice supply and demand: Error ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The study examined a time-series analysis of Nigeria rice supply and demand with a view to determining any long-run equilibrium between them using the Error Correction Model approach (ECM). The data used for the study represents the annual series of 1960-2007 (47 years) for rice supply and demand in Nigeria, ...

Health and Juvenile Delinquency: Prescriptive Policy. Analysis As a Practical Art.

Science.gov (United States)

Flentje, H. Edward; Penner, Maurice J.

A case history of the development of a new Kansas state policy on juvenile delinquency illustrates the use of policy impact analysis and suggests four principles to follow in prescriptive policy analysis. A Kansas governor's task force on juvenile delinquency found evidence linking delinquency to undetected health problems (in sight, hearing,…

Time Series Factor Analysis with an Application to Measuring Money

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gilbert, Paul D.; Meijer, Erik

2005-01-01

Time series factor analysis (TSFA) and its associated statistical theory is developed. Unlike dynamic factor analysis (DFA), TSFA obviates the need for explicitly modeling the process dynamics of the underlying phenomena. It also differs from standard factor analysis (FA) in important respects: the

Dividend Policy and Corporate Value (A Meta-Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tifani Titah Dwi Tyastari

2017-07-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to understand the effect of dividend policy on corporate value, as well as to examine and analyze the variation of result study on corporate value in Indonesia.Dividend Signaling Model was the grand theory used to explain the effect of dividend policy on corporate value. This study used meta-analysis approach with the sample were 70 researches in Indonesia, both the published and unpublished in 2007-2015. The result of this study, meta-analysis strengthens the findings of the previous study which stated that the dividend policy could increase the corporate value. The differences of the previous studies were due to the presence of moderation effect from the measurement model of corporate value and dividend corporate.

Data Envelopment Analysis of different climate policy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bosetti, Valentina; Buchner, Barbara

2009-01-01

Recent developments in the political, scientific and economic debate on climate change suggest that it is of critical importance to develop new approaches able to compare policy scenarios for their environmental effectiveness, their distributive effects, their enforceability, their costs and many other dimensions. This paper discusses a quantitative methodology to assess the relative performance of different climate policy scenarios when accounting for their long-term economic, social and environmental impacts. The proposed procedure is based on Data Envelopment Analysis, here employed in evaluating the relative efficiency of eleven global climate policy scenarios. The methodology provides a promising comparison framework; it can be seen as a way of setting some basic guidelines to frame further debates and negotiations and can be flexibly adopted and modified by decision makers to obtain relevant information for policy design. Three major findings emerge from this analysis: (1) stringent climate policies can outperform less ambitious proposals if all sustainability dimensions are taken into account; (2) a carefully chosen burden-sharing rule is able to bring together climate stabilisation and equity considerations; and (3) the most inefficient strategy results from the failure to negotiate a post-2012 global climate agreement. (author)

A novel water quality data analysis framework based on time-series data mining.

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Weihui; Wang, Guoyin

2017-07-01

The rapid development of time-series data mining provides an emerging method for water resource management research. In this paper, based on the time-series data mining methodology, we propose a novel and general analysis framework for water quality time-series data. It consists of two parts: implementation components and common tasks of time-series data mining in water quality data. In the first part, we propose to granulate the time series into several two-dimensional normal clouds and calculate the similarities in the granulated level. On the basis of the similarity matrix, the similarity search, anomaly detection, and pattern discovery tasks in the water quality time-series instance dataset can be easily implemented in the second part. We present a case study of this analysis framework on weekly Dissolve Oxygen time-series data collected from five monitoring stations on the upper reaches of Yangtze River, China. It discovered the relationship of water quality in the mainstream and tributary as well as the main changing patterns of DO. The experimental results show that the proposed analysis framework is a feasible and efficient method to mine the hidden and valuable knowledge from water quality historical time-series data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A socio-historical approach to policy analysis: the case of the Brazilian Workers' Food Policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Costa-Souza, Jamacy; Vieira-da-Silva, Ligia Maria; Pinell, Patrice

2018-02-05

Policy analyses based on traditional or structuralist definitions of the state are important, but they have some limitations for explaining processes related to policymaking, implementation, and results. Bourdieusian sociology links the analysis to objective and subjective dimensions of social practices and can help elucidate these phenomena. This article provides such empirical evidence by analyzing the social genesis of a Brazilian policy that currently serves 18 million workers and was established by the state in 1976 through the Fiscal Incentives Program for Workers' Nutrition (PIFAT/PAT). The study linked the analysis of the trajectory of social agents involved in the policy's formulation to the historical conditions that allowed the policy to exist in the first place. Although the literature treats the policy as a workers' food program (PAT), the current study showed that it actually represented a new model for paying financial subsidies to companies that provided food to their employees, meanwhile upgrading the commercial market for collective meals. The study further showed that the program emerged as an administrative policy, but linked to economic agents. The program became a specific social space in which issues related to workers' nutrition became secondary, but useful for disguising what had been an explicit side of its genesis, namely its essentially fiscal nature.

Implementation lessons for school food policies and marketing restrictions in the Philippines: a qualitative policy analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Reeve, Erica; Thow, Anne Marie; Bell, Colin; Engelhardt, Katrin; Gamolo-Naliponguit, Ella Cecilia; Go, John Juliard; Sacks, Gary

2018-01-23

The school environment can enhance children's skills, knowledge and behaviours in relation to healthy eating. However, in many countries, unhealthy foods are commonly available in schools, and children can be exposed to aggressive marketing by the food industry. Taking the perspective of policymakers, this study aimed to identify barriers and enablers to effective school food policy development and implementation in the Philippines. In May 2016, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 21 policymakers and stakeholders involved in school food policymaking and implementation in the Philippines. The Health Policy Analysis Triangle was used to identify interview questions and to guide the thematic analysis. These included the political and socio-environmental context, strengths and limitations of existing policy content, roles and behaviours of actors, implementation processes, policy outcomes, and opportunities to improve policy coherence. The Department of Education's policy 'Orders' represented a relatively strong policy framework for the education sector of the Philippines. However, a lack of human and financial resources for implementation, planning, and policy enforcement limited the impact of the policy on the healthiness of school food provision. Ambiguity in policy wording allowed a wide interpretation of the foods eligible to be provided in schools, and led to difficulties in effective monitoring and enforcement. Food companies used existing relationships with schools to promote their brands and compromise the establishment of a stronger food policy agenda. We found a motivated group of actors engaging in policy-oriented learning and advocating for a stronger policy alternative so as to improve the school food environment. The adoption of policy mechanisms being used to promote healthy dietary practices in the school setting will be strengthened by more robust implementation planning processes, and resources to support implementation and enforcement

Spectral Unmixing Analysis of Time Series Landsat 8 Images

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuo, R.; Xu, L.; Peng, J.; Chen, Y.

2018-05-01

Temporal analysis of Landsat 8 images opens up new opportunities in the unmixing procedure. Although spectral analysis of time series Landsat imagery has its own advantage, it has rarely been studied. Nevertheless, using the temporal information can provide improved unmixing performance when compared to independent image analyses. Moreover, different land cover types may demonstrate different temporal patterns, which can aid the discrimination of different natures. Therefore, this letter presents time series K-P-Means, a new solution to the problem of unmixing time series Landsat imagery. The proposed approach is to obtain the "purified" pixels in order to achieve optimal unmixing performance. The vertex component analysis (VCA) is used to extract endmembers for endmember initialization. First, nonnegative least square (NNLS) is used to estimate abundance maps by using the endmember. Then, the estimated endmember is the mean value of "purified" pixels, which is the residual of the mixed pixel after excluding the contribution of all nondominant endmembers. Assembling two main steps (abundance estimation and endmember update) into the iterative optimization framework generates the complete algorithm. Experiments using both simulated and real Landsat 8 images show that the proposed "joint unmixing" approach provides more accurate endmember and abundance estimation results compared with "separate unmixing" approach.

Nonlinear Time Series Analysis via Neural Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Volná, Eva; Janošek, Michal; Kocian, Václav; Kotyrba, Martin

This article deals with a time series analysis based on neural networks in order to make an effective forex market [Moore and Roche, J. Int. Econ. 58, 387-411 (2002)] pattern recognition. Our goal is to find and recognize important patterns which repeatedly appear in the market history to adapt our trading system behaviour based on them.

Policy analysis and recommendations for the DCM research data exchange.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-07-01

This report is a policy analysis and set of recommendations regarding open data policies and policies for new, transformative data environments that are being developed as part of the Connected Vehicle research program. It is presented in three secti...

Introduction: Discourse Analysis and Policy Discourse

NARCIS (Netherlands)

D.R. Gasper (Des); R.J. Apthorpe (Raymond)

1996-01-01

markdownabstractAbstract: As introduction to a collection on policy discourses and patterns of argumentation in international development, this paper clarifies different meanings of `discourse' and 'discourse analysis', including as applied in development studies, and explains why effective

Time series modeling in traffic safety research.

Science.gov (United States)

Lavrenz, Steven M; Vlahogianni, Eleni I; Gkritza, Konstantina; Ke, Yue

2018-08-01

The use of statistical models for analyzing traffic safety (crash) data has been well-established. However, time series techniques have traditionally been underrepresented in the corresponding literature, due to challenges in data collection, along with a limited knowledge of proper methodology. In recent years, new types of high-resolution traffic safety data, especially in measuring driver behavior, have made time series modeling techniques an increasingly salient topic of study. Yet there remains a dearth of information to guide analysts in their use. This paper provides an overview of the state of the art in using time series models in traffic safety research, and discusses some of the fundamental techniques and considerations in classic time series modeling. It also presents ongoing and future opportunities for expanding the use of time series models, and explores newer modeling techniques, including computational intelligence models, which hold promise in effectively handling ever-larger data sets. The information contained herein is meant to guide safety researchers in understanding this broad area of transportation data analysis, and provide a framework for understanding safety trends that can influence policy-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biological time series analysis using a context free language: applicability to pulsatile hormone data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dennis A Dean

Full Text Available We present a novel approach for analyzing biological time-series data using a context-free language (CFL representation that allows the extraction and quantification of important features from the time-series. This representation results in Hierarchically AdaPtive (HAP analysis, a suite of multiple complementary techniques that enable rapid analysis of data and does not require the user to set parameters. HAP analysis generates hierarchically organized parameter distributions that allow multi-scale components of the time-series to be quantified and includes a data analysis pipeline that applies recursive analyses to generate hierarchically organized results that extend traditional outcome measures such as pharmacokinetics and inter-pulse interval. Pulsicons, a novel text-based time-series representation also derived from the CFL approach, are introduced as an objective qualitative comparison nomenclature. We apply HAP to the analysis of 24 hours of frequently sampled pulsatile cortisol hormone data, which has known analysis challenges, from 14 healthy women. HAP analysis generated results in seconds and produced dozens of figures for each participant. The results quantify the observed qualitative features of cortisol data as a series of pulse clusters, each consisting of one or more embedded pulses, and identify two ultradian phenotypes in this dataset. HAP analysis is designed to be robust to individual differences and to missing data and may be applied to other pulsatile hormones. Future work can extend HAP analysis to other time-series data types, including oscillatory and other periodic physiological signals.

Health policy, health systems research and analysis capacity ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Introduction: Health Policy and Systems Research and Analysis (HPSR&A) is an applied science that deals with complexity as it tries to provide lessons, tools and methods to understand and improve health systems and health policy. It is defined by the kinds of questions asked rather than a particular methodology.

Growth And Export Expansion In Mauritius - A Time Series Analysis ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Growth And Export Expansion In Mauritius - A Time Series Analysis. ... RV Sannassee, R Pearce ... Using Granger Causality tests, the short-run analysis results revealed that there is significant reciprocal causality between real export earnings ...

Inclusion and Human Rights in Health Policies: Comparative and Benchmarking Analysis of 51 Policies from Malawi, Sudan, South Africa and Namibia

Science.gov (United States)

MacLachlan, Malcolm; Amin, Mutamad; Mannan, Hasheem; El Tayeb, Shahla; Bedri, Nafisa; Swartz, Leslie; Munthali, Alister; Van Rooy, Gert; McVeigh, Joanne

2012-01-01

While many health services strive to be equitable, accessible and inclusive, peoples’ right to health often goes unrealized, particularly among vulnerable groups. The extent to which health policies explicitly seek to achieve such goals sets the policy context in which services are delivered and evaluated. An analytical framework was developed – EquiFrame – to evaluate 1) the extent to which 21 Core Concepts of human rights were addressed in policy documents, and 2) coverage of 12 Vulnerable Groups who might benefit from such policies. Using this framework, analysis of 51 policies across Malawi, Namibia, South Africa and Sudan, confirmed the relevance of all Core Concepts and Vulnerable Groups. Further, our analysis highlighted some very strong policies, serious shortcomings in others as well as country-specific patterns. If social inclusion and human rights do not underpin policy formation, it is unlikely they will be inculcated in service delivery. EquiFrame facilitates policy analysis and benchmarking, and provides a means for evaluating policy revision and development. PMID:22649488

Inclusion and human rights in health policies: comparative and benchmarking analysis of 51 policies from Malawi, Sudan, South Africa and Namibia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Malcolm MacLachlan

Full Text Available While many health services strive to be equitable, accessible and inclusive, peoples' right to health often goes unrealized, particularly among vulnerable groups. The extent to which health policies explicitly seek to achieve such goals sets the policy context in which services are delivered and evaluated. An analytical framework was developed--EquiFrame--to evaluate 1 the extent to which 21 Core Concepts of human rights were addressed in policy documents, and 2 coverage of 12 Vulnerable Groups who might benefit from such policies. Using this framework, analysis of 51 policies across Malawi, Namibia, South Africa and Sudan, confirmed the relevance of all Core Concepts and Vulnerable Groups. Further, our analysis highlighted some very strong policies, serious shortcomings in others as well as country-specific patterns. If social inclusion and human rights do not underpin policy formation, it is unlikely they will be inculcated in service delivery. EquiFrame facilitates policy analysis and benchmarking, and provides a means for evaluating policy revision and development.

Chemical regulation on fire: rapid policy advances on flame retardants.

Science.gov (United States)

Cordner, Alissa; Mulcahy, Margaret; Brown, Phil

2013-07-02

Chemicals that are widely used in consumer products offer challenges to product manufacturers, risk managers, environmental regulators, environmental scientists, and the interested public. However, the factors that cause specific chemicals to rise to the level of regulatory, scientific, and social movement concern and scrutiny are not well documented, and scientists are frequently unclear about exactly how their research impacts policy. Through a case study of advocacy around flame retardant chemicals, this paper traces the pathways through which scientific evidence and concern is marshaled by both advocacy groups and media sources to affect policy change. We focus our analysis around a broad coalition of environmental and public health advocacy organizations and an investigative journalism series published in 2012 in the Chicago Tribune. We demonstrate that the Tribune series both brought the issue to a wider public audience and precipitated government action, including state policy revisions and federal Senate hearings. We also show how a broad and successful flame retardant coalition developed, leveraged a media event, and influenced policy at multiple institutional levels. The analysis draws on over 110 in-depth interviews, literature and Web site reviews, and observations at a flame retardant manufacturing company, government offices, and scientific and advocacy conferences.

Evaluating the impact of flexible alcohol trading hours on violence: an interrupted time series analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David K Humphreys

Full Text Available On November 24(th 2005, the Government of England and Wales removed regulatory restrictions on the times at which licensed premises could sell alcohol. This study tests availability theory by treating the implementation of Licensing Act (2003 as a natural experiment in alcohol policy.An interrupted time series design was employed to estimate the Act's immediate and delayed impact on violence in the City of Manchester (Population 464,200. We collected police recorded rates of violence, robbery, and total crime between the 1st of February 2004 and the 31st of December 2007. Events were aggregated by week, yielding a total of 204 observations (95 pre-, and 109 post-intervention. Secondary analysis examined changes in daily patterns of violence. Pre- and post-intervention events were separated into four three-hour segments 18∶00-20∶59, 21∶00-23.59, 00∶00-02∶59, 03∶00-05∶59.Analysis found no evidence that the Licensing Act (2003 affected the overall volume of violence. However, analyses of night-time violence found a gradual and permanent shift of weekend violence into later parts of the night. The results estimated an initial increase of 27.5% between 03∶00 to 06∶00 (ω = 0.2433, 95% CI = 0.06, 0.42, which increased to 36% by the end of the study period (δ = -0.897, 95% CI = -1.02, -0.77.This study found no evidence that a national policy increasing the physical availability of alcohol affected the overall volume of violence. There was, however, evidence suggesting that the policy may be associated with changes to patterns of violence in the early morning (3 a.m. to 6 a.m..

Transition Icons for Time-Series Visualization and Exploratory Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Nickerson, Paul V; Baharloo, Raheleh; Wanigatunga, Amal A; Manini, Todd M; Tighe, Patrick J; Rashidi, Parisa

2018-03-01

The modern healthcare landscape has seen the rapid emergence of techniques and devices that temporally monitor and record physiological signals. The prevalence of time-series data within the healthcare field necessitates the development of methods that can analyze the data in order to draw meaningful conclusions. Time-series behavior is notoriously difficult to intuitively understand due to its intrinsic high-dimensionality, which is compounded in the case of analyzing groups of time series collected from different patients. Our framework, which we call transition icons, renders common patterns in a visual format useful for understanding the shared behavior within groups of time series. Transition icons are adept at detecting and displaying subtle differences and similarities, e.g., between measurements taken from patients receiving different treatment strategies or stratified by demographics. We introduce various methods that collectively allow for exploratory analysis of groups of time series, while being free of distribution assumptions and including simple heuristics for parameter determination. Our technique extracts discrete transition patterns from symbolic aggregate approXimation representations, and compiles transition frequencies into a bag of patterns constructed for each group. These transition frequencies are normalized and aligned in icon form to intuitively display the underlying patterns. We demonstrate the transition icon technique for two time-series datasets-postoperative pain scores, and hip-worn accelerometer activity counts. We believe transition icons can be an important tool for researchers approaching time-series data, as they give rich and intuitive information about collective time-series behaviors.

Strategic Sequencing for State Distributed PV Policies: A Quantitative Analysis of Policy Impacts and Interactions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Doris, E.; Krasko, V.A.

2012-10-01

State and local policymakers show increasing interest in spurring the development of customer-sited distributed generation (DG), in particular solar photovoltaic (PV) markets. Prompted by that interest, this analysis examines the use of state policy as a tool to support the development of a robust private investment market. This analysis builds on previous studies that focus on government subsidies to reduce installation costs of individual projects and provides an evaluation of the impacts of policies on stimulating private market development.

Policy Analysis on Growth and Employment - PAGE II | IDRC ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Policy Analysis on Growth and Employment - PAGE II. This project by the Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP) will support quality ... The project is supported by the UK's Department for International Development, and additional funding is ...

A Critical Policy Analysis of 'Teach for Bangladesh': A Travelling Policy Touches Down

Science.gov (United States)

Adhikary, Rino Wiseman; Lingard, Bob

2018-01-01

This paper provides a critical policy analysis and network ethnography of "Teach for Bangladesh" ("TfB"). We demonstrate that TfB is a localised version of a global teacher education policy--"Teach for All/America" ("TfAll/A"). Santos, Boaventura De Sousa [2002. "The Processes of Globalisation."…

Policy Analysis Reaches Midlife

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beryl A. Radin

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The field of policy analysis that exists in the 21st century is quite different from that found earlier phases. The world of the 1960s that gave rise to this field in the US often seems unrelated to the world we experience today. These shifts have occurred as a result of a range of developments – technological changes, changes in the structure and processes of government both internally and globally, new expectations about accountability and transparency, economic and fiscal problems, and increased political and ideological conflict.It is clear globalization has had a significant impact on the field. Shifts in the type of decisionmaking also have created challenges for policy analysts since analysts are now clearly in every nook and cranny in the decisionmaking world. Thus it is relevant to look at the work that they do, the skills that they require, and the background experience that is relevant to them.

Analyzing Crime and Crime Control: A Resource Guide. Economics-Political Science Series.

Science.gov (United States)

Butterfield, Ruth I.; And Others

This document, the fourth in a series of resource guides emphasizing economic-political analysis of contemporary public policies and issues, focuses on crime control. Designed as a three-week unit for secondary school students, the guide is presented in three sections. The introduction presents an economic and a political science framework for…

Establishment of a Policy Analysis Capability in Romania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carole M.P. NEVES

2000-01-01

Full Text Available The Romanian government, like other governments of former communist countries, emerged from the collapsed Soviet Union ill prepared to confront the complex challenges of governing under a democratic, free market system. At the core of governments that formulate sound public policies, successfully implement programs, and respond effectively to rapidly changing situations is the capacity to carry out independent, high quality research and analysis that results in improved decision making. During the 21st century, the need and acceptance of the incorporation of policy analysis courses in public administration curricula in Romania is expected to grow. In time, educational programs are expected to result in the following consequences: _ Formation of a body of strong independent policy researchers employed by the national and local governments as well as by universities and non-profit institutions _ Utilization of analytical outcomes as tools of political, social and economic improvement by the executive, legislative and judicial branches and by non-profit and private sectors _ Greater public understanding of and participation in public policy processes.

Time Series Analysis of Wheat Futures Reward in China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2005-01-01

Different from the fact that the main researches are focused on single futures contract and lack of the comparison of different periods, this paper described the statistical characteristics of wheat futures reward time series of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in recent three years. Besides the basic statistic analysis, the paper used the GARCH and EGARCH model to describe the time series which had the ARCH effect and analyzed the persistence of volatility shocks and the leverage effect. The results showed that compared with that of normal one,wheat futures reward series were abnormality, leptokurtic and thick tail distribution. The study also found that two-part of the reward series had no autocorrelation. Among the six correlative series, three ones presented the ARCH effect. By using of the Auto-regressive Distributed Lag Model, GARCH model and EGARCH model, the paper demonstrates the persistence of volatility shocks and the leverage effect on the wheat futures reward time series. The results reveal that on the one hand, the statistical characteristics of the wheat futures reward are similar to the aboard mature futures market as a whole. But on the other hand, the results reflect some shortages such as the immatureness and the over-control by the government in the Chinese future market.

Vocational Assessment. Policy Paper Series: Document 6.

Science.gov (United States)

Stodden, Robert A., Ed.

This collection of four policy papers on vocational assessment for the handicapped deals with personnel development, interagency coordination, current research and development, and providing individualized assessment services. Discussed in the initial paper on program improvement in vocational assessment for the handicapped are federal legislation…

Policy Research and Analysis Organizations: An Account of Recent ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

user

policy research organizations operate, and touches on the negligible influence that the latter have ... organizations under considerations. The interviews were ... Drawing from the theoretical and empirical literatures, the next section sets ... institutionalizing policy research and analysis, however, politicians and bureaucrats ...

Inquiry into Turkey's Educational Technology, Governance, Situational Educational Policy: An Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Tolu, Hüseyin

2018-01-01

Investigating the sociology of educational technology can be approached through a series of deliberations based on the interaction between Free/Libre Open Source Software (FLOSS) and Proprietary Close Source Software (PCSS). This article consults public policy discourses of the Fatih project, which is the current educational technology project in…

Topological data analysis of financial time series: Landscapes of crashes

Science.gov (United States)

Gidea, Marian; Katz, Yuri

2018-02-01

We explore the evolution of daily returns of four major US stock market indices during the technology crash of 2000, and the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Our methodology is based on topological data analysis (TDA). We use persistence homology to detect and quantify topological patterns that appear in multidimensional time series. Using a sliding window, we extract time-dependent point cloud data sets, to which we associate a topological space. We detect transient loops that appear in this space, and we measure their persistence. This is encoded in real-valued functions referred to as a 'persistence landscapes'. We quantify the temporal changes in persistence landscapes via their Lp-norms. We test this procedure on multidimensional time series generated by various non-linear and non-equilibrium models. We find that, in the vicinity of financial meltdowns, the Lp-norms exhibit strong growth prior to the primary peak, which ascends during a crash. Remarkably, the average spectral density at low frequencies of the time series of Lp-norms of the persistence landscapes demonstrates a strong rising trend for 250 trading days prior to either dotcom crash on 03/10/2000, or to the Lehman bankruptcy on 09/15/2008. Our study suggests that TDA provides a new type of econometric analysis, which complements the standard statistical measures. The method can be used to detect early warning signals of imminent market crashes. We believe that this approach can be used beyond the analysis of financial time series presented here.

Interpretive policy analysis in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Bommel, Severine; van Hulst, M.J.; Yanow, Dvora; van Nispen, Frans; Scholten, Peter

2014-01-01

This chapter outlines the character of interpretive policy analysis (IPA) and then looks at the history and present state of its practice in the Netherlands. In an approach commonly found in science studies, that history is traced through key actors and their publications, institutional locations,

Time series analysis in astronomy: Limits and potentialities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vio, R.; Kristensen, N.R.; Madsen, Henrik

2005-01-01

In this paper we consider the problem of the limits concerning the physical information that can be extracted from the analysis of one or more time series ( light curves) typical of astrophysical objects. On the basis of theoretical considerations and numerical simulations, we show that with no a...

Multi-granular trend detection for time-series analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Goethem, A.I.; Staals, F.; Löffler, M.; Dykes, J.; Speckmann, B.

2017-01-01

Time series (such as stock prices) and ensembles (such as model runs for weather forecasts) are two important types of one-dimensional time-varying data. Such data is readily available in large quantities but visual analysis of the raw data quickly becomes infeasible, even for moderately sized data

ESTIMATING RELIABILITY OF DISTURBANCES IN SATELLITE TIME SERIES DATA BASED ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z.-G. Zhou

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Normally, the status of land cover is inherently dynamic and changing continuously on temporal scale. However, disturbances or abnormal changes of land cover — caused by such as forest fire, flood, deforestation, and plant diseases — occur worldwide at unknown times and locations. Timely detection and characterization of these disturbances is of importance for land cover monitoring. Recently, many time-series-analysis methods have been developed for near real-time or online disturbance detection, using satellite image time series. However, the detection results were only labelled with “Change/ No change” by most of the present methods, while few methods focus on estimating reliability (or confidence level of the detected disturbances in image time series. To this end, this paper propose a statistical analysis method for estimating reliability of disturbances in new available remote sensing image time series, through analysis of full temporal information laid in time series data. The method consists of three main steps. (1 Segmenting and modelling of historical time series data based on Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST. (2 Forecasting and detecting disturbances in new time series data. (3 Estimating reliability of each detected disturbance using statistical analysis based on Confidence Interval (CI and Confidence Levels (CL. The method was validated by estimating reliability of disturbance regions caused by a recent severe flooding occurred around the border of Russia and China. Results demonstrated that the method can estimate reliability of disturbances detected in satellite image with estimation error less than 5% and overall accuracy up to 90%.

Time series analysis of nuclear instrumentation in EBR-II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Imel, G.R.

1996-01-01

Results of a time series analysis of the scaler count data from the 3 wide range nuclear detectors in the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II are presented. One of the channels was replaced, and it was desired to determine if there was any statistically significant change (ie, improvement) in the channel's response after the replacement. Data were collected from all 3 channels for 16-day periods before and after detector replacement. Time series analysis and statistical tests showed that there was no significant change after the detector replacement. Also, there were no statistically significant differences among the 3 channels, either before or after the replacement. Finally, it was determined that errors in the reactivity change inferred from subcritical count monitoring during fuel handling would be on the other of 20-30 cents for single count intervals

Using the Kaldor-Hicks Tableau Format for Cost-Benefit Analysis and Policy Evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Krutilla, Kerry

2005-01-01

This note describes the Kaldor-Hicks (KH) tableau format as a framework for distributional accounting in cost-benefit analysis and policy evaluation. The KH tableau format can serve as a heuristic aid for teaching microeconomics-based policy analysis, and offer insight to policy analysts and decisionmakers beyond conventional efficiency analysis.

Impact Analysis of Air Pollutant Emission Policies on Thermal Coal Supply Chain Enterprises in China

OpenAIRE

Xiaopeng Guo; Xiaodan Guo; Jiahai Yuan

2014-01-01

Spurred by the increasingly serious air pollution problem, the Chinese government has launched a series of policies to put forward specific measures of power structure adjustment and the control objectives of air pollution and coal consumption. Other policies pointed out that the coal resources regional blockades will be broken by improving transportation networks and constructing new logistics nodes. Thermal power takes the largest part of China’s total installed power generation capacity, s...

Impact Analysis of Air Pollutant Emission Policies on Thermal Coal Supply Chain Enterprises in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaopeng Guo

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Spurred by the increasingly serious air pollution problem, the Chinese government has launched a series of policies to put forward specific measures of power structure adjustment and the control objectives of air pollution and coal consumption. Other policies pointed out that the coal resources regional blockades will be broken by improving transportation networks and constructing new logistics nodes. Thermal power takes the largest part of China’s total installed power generation capacity, so these policies will undoubtedly impact thermal coal supply chain member enterprises. Based on the actual situation in China, this paper figures out how the member enterprises adjust their business decisions to satisfy the requirements of air pollution prevention and control policies by establishing system dynamic models of policy impact transfer. These dynamic analyses can help coal enterprises and thermal power enterprises do strategic environmental assessments and find directions of sustainable development. Furthermore, the policy simulated results of this paper provide the Chinese government with suggestions for policy-making to make sure that the energy conservation and emission reduction policies and sustainable energy policies can work more efficiently.

Multivariate stochastic analysis for Monthly hydrological time series at Cuyahoga River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

zhang, L.

2011-12-01

Copula has become a very powerful statistic and stochastic methodology in case of the multivariate analysis in Environmental and Water resources Engineering. In recent years, the popular one-parameter Archimedean copulas, e.g. Gumbel-Houggard copula, Cook-Johnson copula, Frank copula, the meta-elliptical copula, e.g. Gaussian Copula, Student-T copula, etc. have been applied in multivariate hydrological analyses, e.g. multivariate rainfall (rainfall intensity, duration and depth), flood (peak discharge, duration and volume), and drought analyses (drought length, mean and minimum SPI values, and drought mean areal extent). Copula has also been applied in the flood frequency analysis at the confluences of river systems by taking into account the dependence among upstream gauge stations rather than by using the hydrological routing technique. In most of the studies above, the annual time series have been considered as stationary signal which the time series have been assumed as independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables. But in reality, hydrological time series, especially the daily and monthly hydrological time series, cannot be considered as i.i.d. random variables due to the periodicity existed in the data structure. Also, the stationary assumption is also under question due to the Climate Change and Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change in the fast years. To this end, it is necessary to revaluate the classic approach for the study of hydrological time series by relaxing the stationary assumption by the use of nonstationary approach. Also as to the study of the dependence structure for the hydrological time series, the assumption of same type of univariate distribution also needs to be relaxed by adopting the copula theory. In this paper, the univariate monthly hydrological time series will be studied through the nonstationary time series analysis approach. The dependence structure of the multivariate monthly hydrological time series will be

Difference-in-Differences Analysis of the Association Between State Same-Sex Marriage Policies and Adolescent Suicide Attempts.

Science.gov (United States)

Raifman, Julia; Moscoe, Ellen; Austin, S Bryn; McConnell, Margaret

2017-04-01

Suicide is the second leading cause of death among adolescents between the ages of 15 and 24 years. Adolescents who are sexual minorities experience elevated rates of suicide attempts. To evaluate the association between state same-sex marriage policies and adolescent suicide attempts. This study used state-level Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) data from January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2015, which are weighted to be representative of each state that has participation in the survey greater than 60%. A difference-in-differences analysis compared changes in suicide attempts among all public high school students before and after implementation of state policies in 32 states permitting same-sex marriage with year-to-year changes in suicide attempts among high school students in 15 states without policies permitting same-sex marriage. Linear regression was used to control for state, age, sex, race/ethnicity, and year, with Taylor series linearized standard errors clustered by state and classroom. In a secondary analysis among students who are sexual minorities, we included an interaction between sexual minority identity and living in a state that had implemented same-sex marriage policies. Implementation of state policies permitting same-sex marriage during the full period of YRBSS data collection. Self-report of 1 or more suicide attempts within the past 12 months. Among the 762 678 students (mean [SD] age, 16.0 [1.2] years; 366 063 males and 396 615 females) who participated in the YRBSS between 1999 and 2015, a weighted 8.6% of all high school students and 28.5% of students who identified as sexual minorities reported suicide attempts before implementation of same-sex marriage policies. Same-sex marriage policies were associated with a 0.6-percentage point (95% CI, -1.2 to -0.01 percentage points) reduction in suicide attempts, representing a 7% relative reduction in the proportion of high school students attempting suicide owing to same

Bangladesh policy on prevention and control of non-communicable diseases: a policy analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Biswas, Tuhin; Pervin, Sonia; Tanim, Md Imtiaz Alam; Niessen, Louis; Islam, Anwar

2017-06-19

This paper is aimed at critically assessing the extent to which Non-Communicable Disease NCD-related policies introduced in Bangladesh align with the World Health Organization's (WHO) 2013-2020 Action Plan for the Global Strategy for the Prevention and Control of NCDs. The authors reviewed all relevant policy documents introduced by the Government of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. The literature review targeted scientific and grey literature documents involving internet-based search, and expert consultation and snowballing to identify relevant policy documents. Information was extracted from the documents using a specific matrix, mapping each document against the six objectives of the WHO 2013-2020 Action Plan for the Global Strategy for the Prevention and Control of NCDs. A total of 51 documents were identified. Seven (14%) were research and/or surveys, nine were on established policies (17%), while seventeen (33%) were on action programmes. Five (10%) were related to guidelines and thirteen (25%) were strategic planning documents from government and non-government agencies/institutes. The study covered documents produced by the Government of Bangladesh as well as those by quasi-government and non-government organizations irrespective of the extent to which the intended policies were implemented. The policy analysis findings suggest that although the government has initiated many NCD-related policies or programs, they lacked proper planning, implementation and monitoring. Consequently, Bangladesh over the years had little success in effectively addressing the growing burden of non-communicable diseases. It is imperative that future research critically assess the effectiveness of national NCD policies by monitoring their implementation and level of population coverage.

An Analysis of States' Policies Regarding Social Media Use in Education

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Janette K.

2016-01-01

This policy analysis project focused on states' policies regarding social media use in education. Currently, policies, practices and laws are not keeping pace with the rapidly changing nature of technology. As a result of the quick advancement of social media practices, the need exists for organic policies and practices within the educational…

Policy analysis of the English graduation benchmark in Taiwan ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

To nudge students to study English and to improve their English proficiency, many universities in Taiwan have imposed an English graduation benchmark on their students. This article reviews this policy, using the theoretic framework for education policy analysis proposed by Haddad and Demsky (1995). The author ...

Palliative care policy analysis in Iran: A conceptual model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mojgan Ansari

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Palliative care programs are rapidly evolving for patients with life-threatening illnesses. Increased and earlier access for facilities is a subject of growing importance in health services, policy, and research. Aim: This study was conducted to explain stakeholders' perceptions of the factors affecting the design of such a palliative care system and its policy analysis. Methodology: Semi-structured in-depth interviews conducted following purposive sampling of the participants. Twenty-two participants were included in the study. The interviews were analyzed using qualitative-directed content analysis based on "policy analysis triangle" framework. Results: The findings showed the impact of four categories, namely context (political, social, and structural feasibility, content (target setting, process (attracting stakeholder participation, the standardization of care, and education management, and actors (the Ministry of Health and Medical Education, health-care providers, and volunteers in the analysis of the palliative care policies of Iran. Conclusion: In the past 6 years, attention to palliative care has increased significantly as a result of the National Cancer Research Network with the support of the Ministry of Health. The success of health system plan requires great attention to its aspects of social, political, and executive feasibility. Careful management by policymakers of different stakeholders is vital to ensure support for any national plan, but this is challenging to achieve.

Popular Music Policy

OpenAIRE

Frith, Simon; Cloonan, Martin

2008-01-01

This special issue of Popular Music has its origins in a seminar organised at the University of Stirling in 2004. This meeting, one of a series on cultural policy, brought together researchers from a number of European countries who were asked to describe state music policy in their respective countries and to reflect on what differences, if any, such policies had made to recent national music history. As the seminar’s organisers, we were interested in a couple of issues: first, how policy ap...

Positioning women's and children's health in African union policy-making: a policy analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Toure Kadidiatou

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background With limited time to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, progress towards improving women's and children's health needs to be accelerated. With Africa accounting for over half of the world's maternal and child deaths, the African Union (AU has a critical role in prioritizing related policies and catalysing required investments and action. In this paper, the authors assess the evolution of African Union policies related to women's and children's health, and analyze how these policies are prioritized and framed. Methods The main method used in this policy analysis was a document review of all African Union policies developed from 1963 to 2010, focusing specifically on policies that explicitly mention health. The findings from this document review were discussed with key actors to identify policy implications. Results With over 220 policies in total, peace and security is the most common AU policy topic. Social affairs and other development issues became more prominent in the 1990s. The number of policies that mentioned health rose steadily over the years (with 1 policy mentioning health in 1963 to 7 in 2010. This change was catalysed by factors such as: a favourable shift in AU priorities and systems towards development issues, spurred by the transition from the Organization of African Unity to the African Union; the mandate of the African Commission on Human and People's Rights; health-related advocacy initiatives, such as the Campaign for the Accelerated Reduction of Maternal Mortality in Africa (CARMMA; action and accountability requirements arising from international human rights treaties, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs, and new health-funding mechanisms, such as the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. Prioritization of women's and children's health issues in AU policies has been framed primarily by human rights, advocacy and accountability considerations, more by economic and health frames

Positioning women's and children's health in African union policy-making: a policy analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Toure, Kadidiatou; Sankore, Rotimi; Kuruvilla, Shyama; Scolaro, Elisa; Bustreo, Flavia; Osotimehin, Babatunde

2012-02-16

With limited time to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, progress towards improving women's and children's health needs to be accelerated. With Africa accounting for over half of the world's maternal and child deaths, the African Union (AU) has a critical role in prioritizing related policies and catalysing required investments and action. In this paper, the authors assess the evolution of African Union policies related to women's and children's health, and analyze how these policies are prioritized and framed. The main method used in this policy analysis was a document review of all African Union policies developed from 1963 to 2010, focusing specifically on policies that explicitly mention health. The findings from this document review were discussed with key actors to identify policy implications. With over 220 policies in total, peace and security is the most common AU policy topic. Social affairs and other development issues became more prominent in the 1990s. The number of policies that mentioned health rose steadily over the years (with 1 policy mentioning health in 1963 to 7 in 2010).This change was catalysed by factors such as: a favourable shift in AU priorities and systems towards development issues, spurred by the transition from the Organization of African Unity to the African Union; the mandate of the African Commission on Human and People's Rights; health-related advocacy initiatives, such as the Campaign for the Accelerated Reduction of Maternal Mortality in Africa (CARMMA); action and accountability requirements arising from international human rights treaties, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and new health-funding mechanisms, such as the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria.Prioritization of women's and children's health issues in AU policies has been framed primarily by human rights, advocacy and accountability considerations, more by economic and health frames looking at investments and impact. AU policies related

Dividend Policy and Price Volatility. Empirical Evidence from Jordan

OpenAIRE

Imad Zeyad Ramadan

2013-01-01

The aim of this paper is to investigate the influence of the dividend policy on the share price volatility for the Jordanian industrial firms. All the 77 Jordanian industrial firms listed at Amman Stock Exchange for twelve years from 2000 to 2011 have been selected. Descriptive analysis, correlation analysis and a cross-sectional time series multiple least square regression method have been used to present data analysis, test hypotheses, and achieve the objective of the study. The experientia...

Time series analysis in chaotic diode resonator circuit

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hanias, M.P. [TEI of Chalkis, GR 34400, Evia, Chalkis (Greece)] e-mail: mhanias@teihal.gr; Giannaris, G. [TEI of Chalkis, GR 34400, Evia, Chalkis (Greece); Spyridakis, A. [TEI of Chalkis, GR 34400, Evia, Chalkis (Greece); Rigas, A. [TEI of Chalkis, GR 34400, Evia, Chalkis (Greece)

2006-01-01

A diode resonator chaotic circuit is presented. Multisim is used to simulate the circuit and show the presence of chaos. Time series analysis performed by the method proposed by Grasberger and Procaccia. The correlation and minimum embedding dimension {nu} and m {sub min}, respectively, were calculated. Also the corresponding Kolmogorov entropy was calculated.

Time series analysis in chaotic diode resonator circuit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanias, M.P.; Giannaris, G.; Spyridakis, A.; Rigas, A.

2006-01-01

A diode resonator chaotic circuit is presented. Multisim is used to simulate the circuit and show the presence of chaos. Time series analysis performed by the method proposed by Grasberger and Procaccia. The correlation and minimum embedding dimension ν and m min , respectively, were calculated. Also the corresponding Kolmogorov entropy was calculated

Policy Implications Analysis: A Methodological Advancement for Policy Research and Evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Madey, Doren L.; Stenner, A. Jackson

Policy Implications Analysis (PIA) is a tool designed to maximize the likelihood that an evaluation report will have an impact on decision-making. PIA was designed to help people planning and conducting evaluations tailor their information so that it has optimal potential for being used and acted upon. This paper describes the development and…

Notes on economic time series analysis system theoretic perspectives

CERN Document Server

Aoki, Masanao

1983-01-01

In seminars and graduate level courses I have had several opportunities to discuss modeling and analysis of time series with economists and economic graduate students during the past several years. These experiences made me aware of a gap between what economic graduate students are taught about vector-valued time series and what is available in recent system literature. Wishing to fill or narrow the gap that I suspect is more widely spread than my personal experiences indicate, I have written these notes to augment and reor­ ganize materials I have given in these courses and seminars. I have endeavored to present, in as much a self-contained way as practicable, a body of results and techniques in system theory that I judge to be relevant and useful to economists interested in using time series in their research. I have essentially acted as an intermediary and interpreter of system theoretic results and perspectives in time series by filtering out non-essential details, and presenting coherent accounts of wha...

Truth and Credibility in Sincere Policy Analysis: Alternative Approaches for the Production of Policy-Relevant Knowledge.

Science.gov (United States)

Bozeman, Barry; Landsbergen, David

1989-01-01

Two competing approaches to policy analysis are distinguished: a credibility approach, and a truth approach. According to the credibility approach, the policy analyst's role is to search for plausible argument rather than truth. Each approach has pragmatic tradeoffs in fulfilling the goal of providing usable knowledge to decision makers. (TJH)

Correlation between detrended fluctuation analysis and the Lempel-Ziv complexity in nonlinear time series analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang You-Fu; Liu Shu-Lin; Jiang Rui-Hong; Liu Ying-Hui

2013-01-01

We study the correlation between detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and the Lempel-Ziv complexity (LZC) in nonlinear time series analysis in this paper. Typical dynamic systems including a logistic map and a Duffing model are investigated. Moreover, the influence of Gaussian random noise on both the DFA and LZC are analyzed. The results show a high correlation between the DFA and LZC, which can quantify the non-stationarity and the nonlinearity of the time series, respectively. With the enhancement of the random component, the exponent a and the normalized complexity index C show increasing trends. In addition, C is found to be more sensitive to the fluctuation in the nonlinear time series than α. Finally, the correlation between the DFA and LZC is applied to the extraction of vibration signals for a reciprocating compressor gas valve, and an effective fault diagnosis result is obtained

Experiences with a dialogue process between policy makers and global modellers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Daalen, C.E.; Thissen, W.A.H.; Berk, M.M.

1998-01-01

Between 1995 and 1997, a series of five workshops, henceforth called the Delft process, took place with the aim to explore and enhance use of the IMAGE 2 model to support international climate negotiations. The IMAGE 2 model is a multi-disciplinary, integrated model designed to simulate the dynamics of the global society-biosphere-climate system. The workshops facilitated a dialogue between policy makers and scientists involved in the development and applications of the IMAGE 2 model. In this way, policy makers would benefit from the policy makers on how to improve the policy relevance of the IMAGE 2 model. The evaluation at the end of the workshop series showed that participants have used information from the workshop at international negotiation conferences and in preparation of policy documents. The process shows that creating a forum for direct science-policy interactions can be very useful and productive, and has confirmed the importance of creating an open and constructive atmosphere between policy makers, and between policy makers and analysts, to enhance utilisation of scientific knowledge. The authors' analysis also suggests that many factors have to be 'in the right position at the right time and place' to achieve such a success, and that it is difficult to prevent the occurrence of biases in processes like this. 33 refs

Centrifugal Schooling: Third Sector Policy Networks and the Reassembling of Curriculum Policy in England

Science.gov (United States)

Williamson, Ben

2012-01-01

This article examines changes in curriculum policy in secondary education in England. It is concerned with recent curriculum policy and reform, and the proliferation of non-government actors in curriculum policy creation. It examines the emergence of a loose alliance of third sector organisations and their involvement in a series of alternative…

A Markovian Entropy Measure for the Analysis of Calcium Activity Time Series.

Science.gov (United States)

Marken, John P; Halleran, Andrew D; Rahman, Atiqur; Odorizzi, Laura; LeFew, Michael C; Golino, Caroline A; Kemper, Peter; Saha, Margaret S

2016-01-01

Methods to analyze the dynamics of calcium activity often rely on visually distinguishable features in time series data such as spikes, waves, or oscillations. However, systems such as the developing nervous system display a complex, irregular type of calcium activity which makes the use of such methods less appropriate. Instead, for such systems there exists a class of methods (including information theoretic, power spectral, and fractal analysis approaches) which use more fundamental properties of the time series to analyze the observed calcium dynamics. We present a new analysis method in this class, the Markovian Entropy measure, which is an easily implementable calcium time series analysis method which represents the observed calcium activity as a realization of a Markov Process and describes its dynamics in terms of the level of predictability underlying the transitions between the states of the process. We applied our and other commonly used calcium analysis methods on a dataset from Xenopus laevis neural progenitors which displays irregular calcium activity and a dataset from murine synaptic neurons which displays activity time series that are well-described by visually-distinguishable features. We find that the Markovian Entropy measure is able to distinguish between biologically distinct populations in both datasets, and that it can separate biologically distinct populations to a greater extent than other methods in the dataset exhibiting irregular calcium activity. These results support the benefit of using the Markovian Entropy measure to analyze calcium dynamics, particularly for studies using time series data which do not exhibit easily distinguishable features.

A Markovian Entropy Measure for the Analysis of Calcium Activity Time Series.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John P Marken

Full Text Available Methods to analyze the dynamics of calcium activity often rely on visually distinguishable features in time series data such as spikes, waves, or oscillations. However, systems such as the developing nervous system display a complex, irregular type of calcium activity which makes the use of such methods less appropriate. Instead, for such systems there exists a class of methods (including information theoretic, power spectral, and fractal analysis approaches which use more fundamental properties of the time series to analyze the observed calcium dynamics. We present a new analysis method in this class, the Markovian Entropy measure, which is an easily implementable calcium time series analysis method which represents the observed calcium activity as a realization of a Markov Process and describes its dynamics in terms of the level of predictability underlying the transitions between the states of the process. We applied our and other commonly used calcium analysis methods on a dataset from Xenopus laevis neural progenitors which displays irregular calcium activity and a dataset from murine synaptic neurons which displays activity time series that are well-described by visually-distinguishable features. We find that the Markovian Entropy measure is able to distinguish between biologically distinct populations in both datasets, and that it can separate biologically distinct populations to a greater extent than other methods in the dataset exhibiting irregular calcium activity. These results support the benefit of using the Markovian Entropy measure to analyze calcium dynamics, particularly for studies using time series data which do not exhibit easily distinguishable features.

Sensitivity analysis of machine-learning models of hydrologic time series

Science.gov (United States)

O'Reilly, A. M.

2017-12-01

Sensitivity analysis traditionally has been applied to assessing model response to perturbations in model parameters, where the parameters are those model input variables adjusted during calibration. Unlike physics-based models where parameters represent real phenomena, the equivalent of parameters for machine-learning models are simply mathematical "knobs" that are automatically adjusted during training/testing/verification procedures. Thus the challenge of extracting knowledge of hydrologic system functionality from machine-learning models lies in their very nature, leading to the label "black box." Sensitivity analysis of the forcing-response behavior of machine-learning models, however, can provide understanding of how the physical phenomena represented by model inputs affect the physical phenomena represented by model outputs.As part of a previous study, hybrid spectral-decomposition artificial neural network (ANN) models were developed to simulate the observed behavior of hydrologic response contained in multidecadal datasets of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow. Model inputs used moving window averages (MWA) to represent various frequencies and frequency-band components of time series of rainfall and groundwater use. Using these forcing time series, the MWA-ANN models were trained to predict time series of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at 51 sites in central Florida, USA. A time series of sensitivities for each MWA-ANN model was produced by perturbing forcing time-series and computing the change in response time-series per unit change in perturbation. Variations in forcing-response sensitivities are evident between types (lake, groundwater level, or spring), spatially (among sites of the same type), and temporally. Two generally common characteristics among sites are more uniform sensitivities to rainfall over time and notable increases in sensitivities to groundwater usage during significant drought periods.

Policy Analysis of the English Graduation Benchmark in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Shih, Chih-Min

2012-01-01

To nudge students to study English and to improve their English proficiency, many universities in Taiwan have imposed an English graduation benchmark on their students. This article reviews this policy, using the theoretic framework for education policy analysis proposed by Haddad and Demsky (1995). The author presents relevant research findings,…

Cluster Analysis as an Analytical Tool of Population Policy

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Oksana Mikhaylovna Shubat

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The predicted negative trends in Russian demography (falling birth rates, population decline actualize the need to strengthen measures of family and population policy. Our research purpose is to identify groups of Russian regions with similar characteristics in the family sphere using cluster analysis. The findings should make an important contribution to the field of family policy. We used hierarchical cluster analysis based on the Ward method and the Euclidean distance for segmentation of Russian regions. Clustering is based on four variables, which allowed assessing the family institution in the region. The authors used the data of Federal State Statistics Service from 2010 to 2015. Clustering and profiling of each segment has allowed forming a model of Russian regions depending on the features of the family institution in these regions. The authors revealed four clusters grouping regions with similar problems in the family sphere. This segmentation makes it possible to develop the most relevant family policy measures in each group of regions. Thus, the analysis has shown a high degree of differentiation of the family institution in the regions. This suggests that a unified approach to population problems’ solving is far from being effective. To achieve greater results in the implementation of family policy, a differentiated approach is needed. Methods of multidimensional data classification can be successfully applied as a relevant analytical toolkit. Further research could develop the adaptation of multidimensional classification methods to the analysis of the population problems in Russian regions. In particular, the algorithms of nonparametric cluster analysis may be of relevance in future studies.

Evaluating the impact of a novel restricted reimbursement policy for quinolone antibiotics: A time series analysis

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Manns Braden

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Publicly-funded drug plans often use prior authorization policies to limit drug prescribing. To guide physician prescribing of a class of antibiotics with broad antimicrobial activity (quinolone antibiotics in accordance with new prescribing guidelines, Alberta’s provincial health ministry implemented a new mechanism for formulary restriction entitled the optional special authorization (OSA program. We conducted an observational study to determine the impact of this new formulary restriction policy on antimicrobial prescription rates as well as any clinical consequences. Methods Quinolone antibiotic use, and adherence with quinolone prescribing guidelines, was assessed before and after implementation of the OSA program in patients with common outpatient infections using an administrative data cohort and a chart review cohort, respectively. At the same time this policy was implemented to limit quinolone prescribing, two new quinolone antibiotics were added to the formulary. Using administrative data, we analysed a total of 397,534 unique index visits with regard to overall antibiotic utilization, and through chart review, we analysed 1681 charts of patients with infections of interest to determine the indications for quinolone usage. Results Using segmented regression models adjusting for age, sex and physician enrollment in the OSA program, there was no statistically significant change in the monthly rate of all quinolone use (−3.5 (95% CI −5.5, 1.4 prescriptions per 1000 index visits following implementation of the OSA program (p = 0.74. There was a significant level change in the rate of quinolone antibiotic use for urinary tract infection (−33.6 (95% CI: -23.8, -43.4 prescriptions and upper respiratory tract infection (−16.1 (95%CI: -11.6, -20.6 prescriptions per 1000 index visits. Among quinolone prescriptions identified on chart review, 42.5% and 58.5% were consistent with formulary guidelines before and

Irrigation water policy analysis using a business simulation game

Science.gov (United States)

Buchholz, M.; Holst, G.; Musshoff, O.

2016-10-01

Despite numerous studies on farmers' responses to changing irrigation water policies, uncertainties remain about the potential of water pricing schemes and water quotas to reduce irrigation. Thus far, policy impact analysis is predominantly based upon rational choice models that assume behavioral assumptions, such as a perfectly rational profit-maximizing decision maker. Also, econometric techniques are applied which could lack internal validity due to uncontrolled field data. Furthermore, such techniques are not capable of identifying ill-designed policies prior to their implementation. With this in mind, we apply a business simulation game for ex ante policy impact analysis of irrigation water policies at the farm level. Our approach has the potential to reveal the policy-induced behavioral change of the participants in a controlled environment. To do so, we investigate how real farmers from Germany, in an economic experiment, respond to a water pricing scheme and a water quota intending to reduce irrigation. In the business simulation game, the participants manage a "virtual" cash-crop farm for which they make crop allocation and irrigation decisions during several production periods, while facing uncertain product prices and weather conditions. The results reveal that a water quota is able to reduce mean irrigation applications, while a water pricing scheme does not have an impact, even though both policies exhibit equal income effects for the farmers. However, both policies appear to increase the variation of irrigation applications. Compared to a perfectly rational profit-maximizing decision maker, the participants apply less irrigation on average, both when irrigation is not restricted and when a water pricing scheme applies. Moreover, the participants' risk attitude affects the irrigation decisions.

A fully feminist foreign policy? : A postcolonial feminist analysis of Sweden's Feminist Foreign Policy

OpenAIRE

Nylund, Mia-Lie

2017-01-01

This thesis is a postcolonial feminist discourse analysis of Sweden’s Feminist Foreign Policy. Sweden’s Feminist Foreign Policy is unique to the world, but it is not the only case of incorporating a gender perspective as a central part of national or international politics. Feminism and gender perspectives are increasingly receiving attention and space in global politics. The Swedish case could therefore inform us about where politics are heading. Previous research on the Feminist Foreign Pol...

Public opinion and environmental policy output: a cross-national analysis of energy policies in Europe

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Anderson, Brilé; Böhmelt, Tobias; Ward, Hugh

2017-11-01

This article studies how public opinion is associated with the introduction of renewable energy policies in Europe. While research increasingly seeks to model the link between public opinion and environmental policies, the empirical evidence is largely based on a single case: the US. This limits the generalizability of findings and we argue accordingly for a systematic, quantitative study of how public opinion drives environmental policies in another context. Theoretically, we combine arguments behind the political survival of democratic leaders with electoral success and environmental politics. Ultimately, we suggest that office-seeking leaders introduce policies that seem favorable to the domestic audience; if the public prefers environmental protection, the government introduces such policies in turn. The main contribution of this research is the cross-country empirical analysis, where we combine data on the public’s environmental attitudes and renewable energy policy outputs in a European context between 1974 and 2015. We show that as public opinion shifts towards prioritizing the environment, there is a significant and positive effect on the rate of renewable energy policy outputs by governments in Europe. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic, quantitative study of public opinion and environmental policies across a large set of countries, and we demonstrate that the mechanisms behind the introduction of renewable energy policies follow major trends across European states.

Mapping air temperature using time series analysis of LST : The SINTESI approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alfieri, S.M.; De Lorenzi, F.; Menenti, M.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a new procedure to map time series of air temperature (Ta) at fine spatial resolution using time series analysis of satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST) observations. The method assumes that air temperature is known at a single (reference) location such as in gridded

A Policy Analysis of Student Attendance Standards Related to State Education Policies

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Guilliams, Mary Elizabeth

2014-01-01

This paper is a project report of a policy analysis of state attendance information available to public schools. Current state attendance information rarely expands beyond compulsory attendance law. It is vague, non-existent or difficult to find. Research provides strong links between student attendance and achievement. Informed school leaders…

Time Series Data Analysis of Wireless Sensor Network Measurements of Temperature.

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Bhandari, Siddhartha; Bergmann, Neil; Jurdak, Raja; Kusy, Branislav

2017-05-26

Wireless sensor networks have gained significant traction in environmental signal monitoring and analysis. The cost or lifetime of the system typically depends on the frequency at which environmental phenomena are monitored. If sampling rates are reduced, energy is saved. Using empirical datasets collected from environmental monitoring sensor networks, this work performs time series analyses of measured temperature time series. Unlike previous works which have concentrated on suppressing the transmission of some data samples by time-series analysis but still maintaining high sampling rates, this work investigates reducing the sampling rate (and sensor wake up rate) and looks at the effects on accuracy. Results show that the sampling period of the sensor can be increased up to one hour while still allowing intermediate and future states to be estimated with interpolation RMSE less than 0.2 °C and forecasting RMSE less than 1 °C.

The physiology analysis system: an integrated approach for warehousing, management and analysis of time-series physiology data.

Science.gov (United States)

McKenna, Thomas M; Bawa, Gagandeep; Kumar, Kamal; Reifman, Jaques

2007-04-01

The physiology analysis system (PAS) was developed as a resource to support the efficient warehousing, management, and analysis of physiology data, particularly, continuous time-series data that may be extensive, of variable quality, and distributed across many files. The PAS incorporates time-series data collected by many types of data-acquisition devices, and it is designed to free users from data management burdens. This Web-based system allows both discrete (attribute) and time-series (ordered) data to be manipulated, visualized, and analyzed via a client's Web browser. All processes occur on a server, so that the client does not have to download data or any application programs, and the PAS is independent of the client's computer operating system. The PAS contains a library of functions, written in different computer languages that the client can add to and use to perform specific data operations. Functions from the library are sequentially inserted into a function chain-based logical structure to construct sophisticated data operators from simple function building blocks, affording ad hoc query and analysis of time-series data. These features support advanced mining of physiology data.

Mathematical methods in time series analysis and digital image processing

CERN Document Server

Kurths, J; Maass, P; Timmer, J

2008-01-01

The aim of this volume is to bring together research directions in theoretical signal and imaging processing developed rather independently in electrical engineering, theoretical physics, mathematics and the computer sciences. In particular, mathematically justified algorithms and methods, the mathematical analysis of these algorithms, and methods as well as the investigation of connections between methods from time series analysis and image processing are reviewed. An interdisciplinary comparison of these methods, drawing upon common sets of test problems from medicine and geophysical/enviromental sciences, is also addressed. This volume coherently summarizes work carried out in the field of theoretical signal and image processing. It focuses on non-linear and non-parametric models for time series as well as on adaptive methods in image processing.

Assumptions and Policy Decisions for Vital Area Identification Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Myungsu; Bae, Yeon-Kyoung; Lee, Youngseung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and IAEA guidance indicate that certain assumptions and policy questions should be addressed to a Vital Area Identification (VAI) process. Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power conducted a VAI based on current Design Basis Threat and engineering judgement to identify APR1400 vital areas. Some of the assumptions were inherited from Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) as a sabotage logic model was based on PSA logic tree and equipment location data. This paper illustrates some important assumptions and policy decisions for APR1400 VAI analysis. Assumptions and policy decisions could be overlooked at the beginning stage of VAI, however they should be carefully reviewed and discussed among engineers, plant operators, and regulators. Through APR1400 VAI process, some of the policy concerns and assumptions for analysis were applied based on document research and expert panel discussions. It was also found that there are more assumptions to define for further studies for other types of nuclear power plants. One of the assumptions is mission time, which was inherited from PSA.

Understanding Canada's International Trade Policy. "Understanding Economics" Series No. 4.

Science.gov (United States)

Cornell, Peter M.

Written for secondary school Canadian students, the document examines Canada's international trade policy. It is arranged in three sections. Part I discusses the affect of Canada's trade policy on the individual citizen. Tariffs and non-tariff barriers to trade such as import licenses, preferential purchasing agreements, health and safety…

Applied time series analysis

CERN Document Server

Woodward, Wayne A; Elliott, Alan C

2011-01-01

""There is scarcely a standard technique that the reader will find left out … this book is highly recommended for those requiring a ready introduction to applicable methods in time series and serves as a useful resource for pedagogical purposes.""-International Statistical Review (2014), 82""Current time series theory for practice is well summarized in this book.""-Emmanuel Parzen, Texas A&M University""What an extraordinary range of topics covered, all very insightfully. I like [the authors'] innovations very much, such as the AR factor table.""-David Findley, U.S. Census Bureau (retired)""…

Fractal analysis and nonlinear forecasting of indoor 222Rn time series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pausch, G.; Bossew, P.; Hofmann, W.; Steger, F.

1998-01-01

Fractal analyses of indoor 222 Rn time series were performed using different chaos theory based measurements such as time delay method, Hurst's rescaled range analysis, capacity (fractal) dimension, and Lyapunov exponent. For all time series we calculated only positive Lyapunov exponents which is a hint to chaos, while the Hurst exponents were well below 0.5, indicating antipersistent behaviour (past trends tend to reverse in the future). These time series were also analyzed with a nonlinear prediction method which allowed an estimation of the embedding dimensions with some restrictions, limiting the prediction to about three relative time steps. (orig.)

GPS Position Time Series @ JPL

Science.gov (United States)

Owen, Susan; Moore, Angelyn; Kedar, Sharon; Liu, Zhen; Webb, Frank; Heflin, Mike; Desai, Shailen

2013-01-01

Different flavors of GPS time series analysis at JPL - Use same GPS Precise Point Positioning Analysis raw time series - Variations in time series analysis/post-processing driven by different users. center dot JPL Global Time Series/Velocities - researchers studying reference frame, combining with VLBI/SLR/DORIS center dot JPL/SOPAC Combined Time Series/Velocities - crustal deformation for tectonic, volcanic, ground water studies center dot ARIA Time Series/Coseismic Data Products - Hazard monitoring and response focused center dot ARIA data system designed to integrate GPS and InSAR - GPS tropospheric delay used for correcting InSAR - Caltech's GIANT time series analysis uses GPS to correct orbital errors in InSAR - Zhen Liu's talking tomorrow on InSAR Time Series analysis

Analyzing Public Discourse: Using Media Content Analysis to Understand the Policy Process

Science.gov (United States)

Saraisky, Nancy Green

2016-01-01

One of the most basic and obvious sources of data for education policy analysis is text. This article discusses content analysis as an important part of the methodological toolbox for elucidating patterns and trends about education policy. Focusing specifically on media, I show how media content analysis can produce nuanced insights about the ways…

Impact of pharmaceutical policy interventions on utilization of antipsychotic medicines in Finland and Portugal in times of economic recession: interrupted time series analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Leopold, Christine; Zhang, Fang; Mantel-Teeuwisse, Aukje K; Vogler, Sabine; Valkova, Silvia; Ross-Degnan, Dennis; Wagner, Anita K

2014-07-25

To analyze the impacts of pharmaceutical sector policies implemented to contain country spending during the economic recession--a reference price system in Finland and a mix of policies including changes in reimbursement rates, a generic promotion campaign and discounts granted to the public payer in Portugal - on utilization of, as a proxy for access to, antipsychotic medicines. We obtained monthly IMS Health sales data in standard units of antipsychotic medicines in Portugal and Finland for the period January 2007 to December 2011. We used an interrupted time series design to estimate changes in overall use and generic market shares by comparing pre-policy and post-policy levels and trends. Both countries' policy approaches were associated with slight, likely unintended, decreases in overall use of antipsychotic medicines and with increases in generic market shares of major antipsychotic products. In Finland, quetiapine and risperidone generic market shares increased substantially (estimates one year post-policy compared to before, quetiapine: 6.80% [3.92%, 9.68%]; risperidone: 11.13% [6.79%, 15.48%]. The policy interventions in Portugal resulted in a substantially increased generic market share for amisulpride (estimate one year post-policy compared to before: 22.95% [21.01%, 24.90%]; generic risperidone already dominated the market prior to the policy interventions. Different policy approaches to contain pharmaceutical expenditures in times of the economic recession in Finland and Portugal had intended--increased use of generics--and likely unintended--slightly decreased overall sales, possibly consistent with decreased access to needed medicines--impacts. These findings highlight the importance of monitoring and evaluating the effects of pharmaceutical policy interventions on use of medicines and health outcomes.

The Photoplethismographic Signal Processed with Nonlinear Time Series Analysis Tools

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hernandez Caceres, Jose Luis; Hong, Rolando; Garcia Lanz, Abel; Garcia Dominguez, Luis; Cabannas, Karelia

2001-01-01

Finger photoplethismography (PPG) signals were submitted to nonlinear time series analysis. The applied analytical techniques were: (i) High degree polynomial fitting for baseline estimation; (ii) FFT analysis for estimating power spectra; (iii) fractal dimension estimation via the Higuchi's time-domain method, and (iv) kernel nonparametric estimation for reconstructing noise free-attractors and also for estimating signal's stochastic components

The history of NATO TNF policy: The role of studies, analysis and exercises conference proceedings. Volume 1, Introduction and summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rinne, R.L. [ed.

1994-02-01

This conference was organized to study and analyze the role of simulation, analysis, modeling, and exercises in the history of NATO policy. The premise was not that the results of past studies will apply to future policy, but rather that understanding what influenced the decision process -- and how -- would be of value. The structure of the conference was built around discussion panels. The panels were augmented by a series of papers and presentations focusing on particular TNF events, issues, studies or exercise. The conference proceedings consist of three volumes. This volume, Volume 1, contains the conference introduction, agenda, biographical sketches of principal participants, and analytical summary of the presentations and discussion panels. Volume 2 contains a short introduction and the papers and presentations from the conference. Volume 3 contains selected papers by Brig. Gen. Robert C. Richardson III (Ret.).

Multi-Scale Entropy Analysis as a Method for Time-Series Analysis of Climate Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heiko Balzter

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Evidence is mounting that the temporal dynamics of the climate system are changing at the same time as the average global temperature is increasing due to multiple climate forcings. A large number of extreme weather events such as prolonged cold spells, heatwaves, droughts and floods have been recorded around the world in the past 10 years. Such changes in the temporal scaling behaviour of climate time-series data can be difficult to detect. While there are easy and direct ways of analysing climate data by calculating the means and variances for different levels of temporal aggregation, these methods can miss more subtle changes in their dynamics. This paper describes multi-scale entropy (MSE analysis as a tool to study climate time-series data and to identify temporal scales of variability and their change over time in climate time-series. MSE estimates the sample entropy of the time-series after coarse-graining at different temporal scales. An application of MSE to Central European, variance-adjusted, mean monthly air temperature anomalies (CRUTEM4v is provided. The results show that the temporal scales of the current climate (1960–2014 are different from the long-term average (1850–1960. For temporal scale factors longer than 12 months, the sample entropy increased markedly compared to the long-term record. Such an increase can be explained by systems theory with greater complexity in the regional temperature data. From 1961 the patterns of monthly air temperatures are less regular at time-scales greater than 12 months than in the earlier time period. This finding suggests that, at these inter-annual time scales, the temperature variability has become less predictable than in the past. It is possible that climate system feedbacks are expressed in altered temporal scales of the European temperature time-series data. A comparison with the variance and Shannon entropy shows that MSE analysis can provide additional information on the

Time series analysis of gold production in Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Muda, Nora; Hoon, Lee Yuen

2012-05-01

Gold is a soft, malleable, bright yellow metallic element and unaffected by air or most reagents. It is highly valued as an asset or investment commodity and is extensively used in jewellery, industrial application, dentistry and medical applications. In Malaysia, gold mining is limited in several areas such as Pahang, Kelantan, Terengganu, Johor and Sarawak. The main purpose of this case study is to obtain a suitable model for the production of gold in Malaysia. The model can also be used to predict the data of Malaysia's gold production in the future. Box-Jenkins time series method was used to perform time series analysis with the following steps: identification, estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting. In addition, the accuracy of prediction is tested using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). From the analysis, the ARIMA (3,1,1) model was found to be the best fitted model with MAPE equals to 3.704%, indicating the prediction is very accurate. Hence, this model can be used for forecasting. This study is expected to help the private and public sectors to understand the gold production scenario and later plan the gold mining activities in Malaysia.

Pitfalls of CITES Implementation in Nepal: A Policy Gap Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Dongol, Yogesh; Heinen, Joel T.

2012-08-01

Implementation of policy involves multiple agencies operating at multiple levels in facilitating processes and actions to accomplish desired results. The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) was developed and implemented to regulate and control international wildlife trade, but violations of the agreement are widespread and growing worldwide, including in Nepal. This study attempts to understand how domestic CITES policies are translated into action and what effect actions and processes have on compliance. In doing so, this study provides insights into the implementation and enforcement pitfalls of national legislation that explain CITES violations in Nepal. Primarily, we used 26 key informants interviews to learn opinions of experts, and the grounded theory approach for further qualitative data analysis. In addition, we used Najman's (1995) policy implementation analysis framework to explain gaps. Many interrelated variables in the content of the policy, commitment and capacity of the agencies, the roles of clients and coalitions and contextual issues were observed. Variables that emerged suggest pitfalls in the regulatory policy represented by low probability of detection, arrest and punishment. Moreover, redistributive policies in buffer zones of protected areas are needed into perpetuity to benefit locals. Also, conservation organizations' support for building public and political salience is imperative.

Is Aboriginal nutrition a priority for local government? A policy analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Helson, Catherine; Walker, Ruth; Palermo, Claire; Rounsefell, Kim; Aron, Yudit; MacDonald, Catherine; Atkinson, Petah; Browne, Jennifer

2017-11-01

The present study aimed to explore how Australian local governments prioritise the health and well-being of Aboriginal populations and the extent to which nutrition is addressed by local government health policy. In the state of Victoria, Australia, all seventy-nine local governments' public health policy documents were retrieved. Inclusion of Aboriginal health and nutrition in policy documents was analysed using quantitative content analysis. Representation of Aboriginal nutrition 'problems' and 'solutions' was examined using qualitative framing analysis. The socio-ecological framework was used to classify the types of Aboriginal nutrition issues and strategies within policy documents. Victoria, Australia. Local governments' public health policy documents (n 79). A small proportion (14 %, n 11) of local governments addressed Aboriginal health and well-being in terms of nutrition. Where strategies aimed at nutrition existed, they mostly focused on individual factors rather than the broader macroenvironment. A limited number of Victorian local governments address nutrition as a health issue for their Aboriginal populations in policy documents. Nutrition needs to be addressed as a community and social responsibility rather than merely an individual 'behaviour'. Partnerships are required to ensure Aboriginal people lead government policy development.

A predictive analysis of CO2 emissions, environmental policy stringency, and economic growth in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, Khalid; Ahmed, Sidrah

2018-03-28

This study takes environmental policy stringency and economic activity as the controlling variables and forecasts the CO 2 emissions in China up to 2022. In doing so, an application of corrected grey model with convolution is used over the annual time series data between 1990 and 2012. The simulation results show that (1) between 2012 and 2022, CO 2 emissions in China is expected to increase at an average rate of 17.46% annually, raising the emissions intensity from 7.04 in 2012 to 25.461 metric tons per capita by 2022; (2) stringent environmental policies reduce CO 2 emissions-whereas, GDP tends to increase the emissions intensity in China; (3) stringent environmental policies are found to have a negative impact on GDP in China. Based on the empirical findings, the study also provides some policy suggestions to reduce emissions intensity in China.

ANALYSIS IMPORT POLICY OF SOYBEAN ON ECONOMICS PERFORMANCE OF INDONESIAN SOYBEAN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muthiah Abda Azizah

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Trade liberalization is closely related to the opening of market access for Indonesian products to the world and vice versa. Since the soybean trade out of BULOG control began in 1998, soybean imports increased very rapidly (Sudaryanto and Swastika, 2007. This research aims to determine the general picture of soybean economy, factors analyses that influence the economic performance of Indonesian soybean and findings the alternative of policies that can reduce soybean imports in Indonesia. Methods of data analysis are descriptive analysis, 2SLS simultaneous equations, and simulation of policy alternatives. Results of the analysis of the factors that affect the economic performance of Indonesian soybean, consists of 1 The area of soybean harvest is influenced significantly by the price of domestic soybean and domestic prices of corn, 2 Productivity soybean influenced significantly by the domestic prices of soybean and fertilizer prices, 3 soybean demand influenced significantly by population, domestic prices of soybean, 4 domestic prices of soybean significantly affected by world prices of soybean, exchange rates, and soybean supply, 5 Imports of soybean influenced significantly by the domestic demand of soybean and soybean production. Therefore, policy scenarios should be made to reduce soybean imports, including by carrying out the expansion of soybean harvest policy, the policy of increasing the productivity of soybean, the policy of subsidizing the price of fertilizer.

EDUCATIONAL POLICIES AND INITIATIVES FOR IMPROVED PERFORMANCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flavia, CAIA

2015-03-01

Full Text Available According to Gartner estimates, due to increased variety, speed and data volume, by 2015 there will be a global demand of 4.4 million professionals for real-time analysis of data from sources with different structures, but only one third of the demand will be met. The purpose of this research is to identify possible solutions for improved academic results in the IT domain, considering the time management policies, the content and the student motivations, as well as the business strategy tendencies. These proposals are targeted toward meeting the IT specialists demand. The research is composed of two parts: the first explores the Romanian IT labour market characteristics, while the second investigates the academic education policies that can help mitigate deficiencies and attain higher performance. The deficiencies are identified through a series of statistical research and analysis based on national level databases, adopting a quantitative approach. The policies proposed are supported by a flow model developed considering the students' activity, motivation, traits and results, measured and analysed quantitatively.

Analysis and implementation of LLC-T series parallel resonant ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A prototype 300 W, 100 kHz converter is designed and built to experimentally demonstrate, dynamic and steady state performance for the LLC-T series parallel resonant converter. A comparative study is performed between experimental results and the simulation studies. The analysis shows that the output of converter is ...

Analyzing availability using transfer function models and cross spectral analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singpurwalla, N.D.

1980-01-01

The paper shows how the methods of multivariate time series analysis can be used in a novel way to investigate the interrelationships between a series of operating (running) times and a series of maintenance (down) times of a complex system. Specifically, the techniques of cross spectral analysis are used to help obtain a Box-Jenkins type transfer function model for the running times and the down times of a nuclear reactor. A knowledge of the interrelationships between the running times and the down times is useful for an evaluation of maintenance policies, for replacement policy decisions, and for evaluating the availability and the readiness of complex systems

A non linear analysis of human gait time series based on multifractal analysis and cross correlations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Munoz-Diosdado, A

2005-01-01

We analyzed databases with gait time series of adults and persons with Parkinson, Huntington and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) diseases. We obtained the staircase graphs of accumulated events that can be bounded by a straight line whose slope can be used to distinguish between gait time series from healthy and ill persons. The global Hurst exponent of these series do not show tendencies, we intend that this is because some gait time series have monofractal behavior and others have multifractal behavior so they cannot be characterized with a single Hurst exponent. We calculated the multifractal spectra, obtained the spectra width and found that the spectra of the healthy young persons are almost monofractal. The spectra of ill persons are wider than the spectra of healthy persons. In opposition to the interbeat time series where the pathology implies loss of multifractality, in the gait time series the multifractal behavior emerges with the pathology. Data were collected from healthy and ill subjects as they walked in a roughly circular path and they have sensors in both feet, so we have one time series for the left foot and other for the right foot. First, we analyzed these time series separately, and then we compared both results, with direct comparison and with a cross correlation analysis. We tried to find differences in both time series that can be used as indicators of equilibrium problems

A non linear analysis of human gait time series based on multifractal analysis and cross correlations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Munoz-Diosdado, A [Department of Mathematics, Unidad Profesional Interdisciplinaria de Biotecnologia, Instituto Politecnico Nacional, Av. Acueducto s/n, 07340, Mexico City (Mexico)

2005-01-01

We analyzed databases with gait time series of adults and persons with Parkinson, Huntington and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) diseases. We obtained the staircase graphs of accumulated events that can be bounded by a straight line whose slope can be used to distinguish between gait time series from healthy and ill persons. The global Hurst exponent of these series do not show tendencies, we intend that this is because some gait time series have monofractal behavior and others have multifractal behavior so they cannot be characterized with a single Hurst exponent. We calculated the multifractal spectra, obtained the spectra width and found that the spectra of the healthy young persons are almost monofractal. The spectra of ill persons are wider than the spectra of healthy persons. In opposition to the interbeat time series where the pathology implies loss of multifractality, in the gait time series the multifractal behavior emerges with the pathology. Data were collected from healthy and ill subjects as they walked in a roughly circular path and they have sensors in both feet, so we have one time series for the left foot and other for the right foot. First, we analyzed these time series separately, and then we compared both results, with direct comparison and with a cross correlation analysis. We tried to find differences in both time series that can be used as indicators of equilibrium problems.

Canadian energy and climate policies: A SWOT analysis in search of federal/provincial coherence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fertel, Camille; Bahn, Olivier; Vaillancourt, Kathleen; Waaub, Jean-Philippe

2013-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of Canadian energy and climate policies in terms of the coherence between federal and provincial/territorial strategies. After briefly describing the institutional, energy, and climate contexts, we perform a SWOT analysis on the themes of energy security, energy efficiency, and technology and innovation. Within this analytical framework, we discuss the coherence of federal and provincial policies and of energy and climate policies. Our analysis shows that there is a lack of consistency in the Canadian energy and climate strategies beyond the application of market principles. Furthermore, in certain sectors, the Canadian approach amounts to an amalgam of decisions made at a provincial level without cooperation with other provinces or with the federal government. One way to improve policy coherence would be to increase the cooperation between the different jurisdictions by using a combination of policy tools and by relying on existing intergovernmental agencies. - Highlights: • We perform a SWOT analysis of the Canadian energy and climate policies. • We analyse policy coherence between federal and provincial/territorial strategies. • We show that a lack of coordination leads to a weak coherence among policies. • The absence of cooperation results in additional costs for Canada

An intersectionality-based policy analysis framework: critical reflections on a methodology for advancing equity.

Science.gov (United States)

Hankivsky, Olena; Grace, Daniel; Hunting, Gemma; Giesbrecht, Melissa; Fridkin, Alycia; Rudrum, Sarah; Ferlatte, Olivier; Clark, Natalie

2014-12-10

In the field of health, numerous frameworks have emerged that advance understandings of the differential impacts of health policies to produce inclusive and socially just health outcomes. In this paper, we present the development of an important contribution to these efforts - an Intersectionality-Based Policy Analysis (IBPA) Framework. Developed over the course of two years in consultation with key stakeholders and drawing on best and promising practices of other equity-informed approaches, this participatory and iterative IBPA Framework provides guidance and direction for researchers, civil society, public health professionals and policy actors seeking to address the challenges of health inequities across diverse populations. Importantly, we present the application of the IBPA Framework in seven priority health-related policy case studies. The analysis of each case study is focused on explaining how IBPA: 1) provides an innovative structure for critical policy analysis; 2) captures the different dimensions of policy contexts including history, politics, everyday lived experiences, diverse knowledges and intersecting social locations; and 3) generates transformative insights, knowledge, policy solutions and actions that cannot be gleaned from other equity-focused policy frameworks. The aim of this paper is to inspire a range of policy actors to recognize the potential of IBPA to foreground the complex contexts of health and social problems, and ultimately to transform how policy analysis is undertaken.

Social media for public health: an exploratory policy analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Fast, Ingrid; Sørensen, Kristine; Brand, Helmut; Suggs, L Suzanne

2015-02-01

To accomplish the aims of public health practice and policy today, new forms of communication and education are being applied. Social media are increasingly relevant for public health and used by various actors. Apart from benefits, there can also be risks in using social media, but policies regulating engagement in social media is not well researched. This study examined European public health-related organizations' social media policies and describes the main components of existing policies. This research used a mixed methods approach. A content analysis of social media policies from European institutions, non-government organizations (NGOs) and social media platforms was conducted. Next, individuals responsible for social media in their organization or projects completed a survey about their social media policy. Seventy-five per cent of institutions, NGOs and platforms had a social media policy available. The primary aspects covered within existing policies included data and privacy protection, intellectual property and copyright protection and regulations for the engagement in social media. Policies were intended to regulate staff use, to secure the liability of the institution and social responsibility. Respondents also stressed the importance of self-responsibility when using social media. This study of social media policies for public health in Europe provides a first snapshot of the existence and characteristics of social media policies among European health organizations. Policies tended to focus on legal aspects, rather than the health of the social media user. The effect of such policies on social media adoption and usage behaviour remains to be examined. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Remotely Sensed Data for High Resolution Agro-Environmental Policy Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Welle, Paul

Policy analyses of agricultural and environmental systems are often limited due to data constraints. Measurement campaigns can be costly, especially when the area of interest includes oceans, forests, agricultural regions or other dispersed spatial domains. Satellite based remote sensing offers a way to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of policy analysis concerning these systems. However, there are key limitations to the implementation of satellite data. Uncertainty in data derived from remote-sensing can be significant, and traditional methods of policy analysis for managing uncertainty on large datasets can be computationally expensive. Moreover, while satellite data can increasingly offer estimates of some parameters such as weather or crop use, other information regarding demographic or economic data is unlikely to be estimated using these techniques. Managing these challenges in practical policy analysis remains a challenge. In this dissertation, I conduct five case studies which rely heavily on data sourced from orbital sensors. First, I assess the magnitude of climate and anthropogenic stress on coral reef ecosystems. Second, I conduct an impact assessment of soil salinity on California agriculture. Third, I measure the propensity of growers to adapt their cropping practices to soil salinization in agriculture. Fourth, I analyze whether small-scale desalination units could be applied on farms in California in order mitigate the effects of drought and salinization as well as prevent agricultural drainage from entering vulnerable ecosystems. And fifth, I assess the feasibility of satellite-based remote sensing for salinity measurement at global scale. Through these case studies, I confront both the challenges and benefits associated with implementing satellite based-remote sensing for improved policy analysis.

Development and Application of Econometric Models for Forecasting and Analysis of Monetary Policy Scenarios

OpenAIRE

Malugin, Vladimir; Demidenko , Mikhail; Kalechits, Dmitry; Miksjuk , Alexei; Tsukarev , Taras

2009-01-01

A system of econometric models designed for forecasting target monetary indicators as well as conducting monetary policy scenarios analysis is presented. The econometric models integrated in the system are represented in the error correction form and are interlinked by means of monetary policy instruments variables, common exogenous variables characterizing external shocks, and monetary policy target endogenous variables. Forecast accuracy estimates and monetary policy analysis results are pr...

Analysis of Public Policies for Sexuality Education in Germany and The Netherlands

Science.gov (United States)

Aronowitz, Teri; Fawcett, Jacqueline

2015-01-01

The purpose of this article is to present an analysis of the philosophical, historical, sociological, political, and economic perspectives reflected in the public policies about lifespan sexuality education of Germany and The Netherlands. A new conceptual framework for analysis and evaluation of sexuality education policies that integrates the…

Hierarchical analysis of acceptable use policies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. A. Laughton

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Acceptable use policies (AUPs are vital tools for organizations to protect themselves and their employees from misuse of computer facilities provided. A well structured, thorough AUP is essential for any organization. It is impossible for an effective AUP to deal with every clause and remain readable. For this reason, some sections of an AUP carry more weight than others, denoting importance. The methodology used to develop the hierarchical analysis is a literature review, where various sources were consulted. This hierarchical approach to AUP analysis attempts to highlight important sections and clauses dealt with in an AUP. The emphasis of the hierarchal analysis is to prioritize the objectives of an AUP.

Gender Equality Matters: Empowering Women through Literacy Programmes. UIL Policy Brief 3

Science.gov (United States)

UNESCO Institute for Lifelong Learning, 2014

2014-01-01

The third in UIL's current series of policy briefs, titled "Gender equality matters: Empowering women through literacy programmes," offers research-informed analysis and action-oriented recommendations for local and national governments, providers of literacy programmes and educators on how to reduce the gender gap in adult literacy.…

Regression and regression analysis time series prediction modeling on climate data of quetta, pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jafri, Y.Z.; Kamal, L.

2007-01-01

Various statistical techniques was used on five-year data from 1998-2002 of average humidity, rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The relationships to regression analysis time series (RATS) were developed for determining the overall trend of these climate parameters on the basis of which forecast models can be corrected and modified. We computed the coefficient of determination as a measure of goodness of fit, to our polynomial regression analysis time series (PRATS). The correlation to multiple linear regression (MLR) and multiple linear regression analysis time series (MLRATS) were also developed for deciphering the interdependence of weather parameters. Spearman's rand correlation and Goldfeld-Quandt test were used to check the uniformity or non-uniformity of variances in our fit to polynomial regression (PR). The Breusch-Pagan test was applied to MLR and MLRATS, respectively which yielded homoscedasticity. We also employed Bartlett's test for homogeneity of variances on a five-year data of rainfall and humidity, respectively which showed that the variances in rainfall data were not homogenous while in case of humidity, were homogenous. Our results on regression and regression analysis time series show the best fit to prediction modeling on climatic data of Quetta, Pakistan. (author)

Time Series Imputation via L1 Norm-Based Singular Spectrum Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Kalantari, Mahdi; Yarmohammadi, Masoud; Hassani, Hossein; Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal

Missing values in time series data is a well-known and important problem which many researchers have studied extensively in various fields. In this paper, a new nonparametric approach for missing value imputation in time series is proposed. The main novelty of this research is applying the L1 norm-based version of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), namely L1-SSA which is robust against outliers. The performance of the new imputation method has been compared with many other established methods. The comparison is done by applying them to various real and simulated time series. The obtained results confirm that the SSA-based methods, especially L1-SSA can provide better imputation in comparison to other methods.

Introduction of male circumcision for HIV prevention in Uganda: analysis of the policy process.

Science.gov (United States)

Odoch, Walter Denis; Kabali, Kenneth; Ankunda, Racheal; Zulu, Joseph Mumba; Tetui, Moses

2015-06-20

Health policy analysis is important for all health policies especially in fields with ever changing evidence-based interventions such as HIV prevention. However, there are few published reports of health policy analysis in sub-Saharan Africa in this field. This study explored the policy process of the introduction of male circumcision (MC) for HIV prevention in Uganda in order to inform the development processes of similar health policies. Desk review of relevant documents was conducted between March and May 2012. Thematic analysis was used to analyse the data. Conceptual frameworks that demonstrate the interrelationship within the policy development processes and influence of actors in the policy development processes guided the analysis. Following the introduction of MC on the national policy agenda in 2007, negotiation and policy formulation preceded its communication and implementation. Policy proponents included academic researchers in the early 2000s and development partners around 2007. Favourable contextual factors that supported the development of the policy included the rising HIV prevalence, adoption of MC for HIV prevention in other sub-Saharan African countries, and expertise on MC. Additionally, the networking capability of proponents facilitated the change in position of non-supportive or neutral actors. Non-supportive and neutral actors in the initial stages of the policy development process included the Ministry of Health, traditional and Muslim leaders, and the Republican President. Using political authority, legitimacy, and charisma, actors who opposed the policy tried to block the policy development process. Researchers' initial disregard of the Ministry of Health in the research process of MC and the missing civil society advocacy arm contributed to delays in the policy development process. This study underscores the importance of securing top political leadership as well as key implementing partners' support in policy development processes

Multiattribute Utility Analysis: The Case of Filipino Rice Policy

OpenAIRE

Gordon C. Rausser; Joseph Yassour

1981-01-01

Major uncertainties and conflicting objectives often arise in public policy analysis. This paper advances a framework that is appropriate for public policy problems frequently encountered in agriculture and food systems. Among other possible benefits, its principal value is to provide focus on the major conflicts, trade-offs, and subjective perceptions among affected groups. It can be used to isolate major disagreements, needed empirical evidence, appropriate degrees of risk aversion, equity ...

Analysis of historical series of industrial demand of energy; Analisi delle serie storiche dei consumi energetici dell`industria

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moauro, F. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy). Dip. Energia

1995-03-01

This paper reports a short term analysis of the Italian demand for energy fonts and a check of a statistic model supposing the industrial demand for energy fonts as a function of prices and production, according to neoclassic neoclassic micro economic theory. To this pourpose monthly time series of industrial consumption of main energy fonts in 6 sectors, industrial production indexes in the same sectors and indexes of energy prices (coal, natural gas, oil products, electricity) have been used. The statistic methodology refers to modern analysis of time series and specifically to transfer function models. These ones permit rigorous identification and representation of the most important dynamic relations between dependent variables (production and prices), as relation of an input-output system. The results have shown an important positive correlation between energy consumption with prices. Furthermore, it has been shown the reliability of forecasts and their use as monthly energy indicators.

Time Series Analysis of Wheat flour Price Shocks in Pakistan: A Case Analysis

OpenAIRE

Asad Raza Abdi; Ali Hassan Halepoto; Aisha Bashir Shah; Faiz M. Shaikh

2013-01-01

The current research investigates the wheat flour Price Shocks in Pakistan: A case analysis. Data was collected by using secondary sources by using Time series Analysis, and data were analyzed by using SPSS-20 version. It was revealed that the price of wheat flour increases from last four decades, and trend of price shocks shows that due to certain market variation and supply and demand shocks also play a positive relationship in price shocks in the wheat prices. It was further revealed th...

Time series clustering analysis of health-promoting behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Chi-Ta; Hung, Yu-Shiang; Deng, Guang-Feng

2013-10-01

Health promotion must be emphasized to achieve the World Health Organization goal of health for all. Since the global population is aging rapidly, ComCare elder health-promoting service was developed by the Taiwan Institute for Information Industry in 2011. Based on the Pender health promotion model, ComCare service offers five categories of health-promoting functions to address the everyday needs of seniors: nutrition management, social support, exercise management, health responsibility, stress management. To assess the overall ComCare service and to improve understanding of the health-promoting behavior of elders, this study analyzed health-promoting behavioral data automatically collected by the ComCare monitoring system. In the 30638 session records collected for 249 elders from January, 2012 to March, 2013, behavior patterns were identified by fuzzy c-mean time series clustering algorithm combined with autocorrelation-based representation schemes. The analysis showed that time series data for elder health-promoting behavior can be classified into four different clusters. Each type reveals different health-promoting needs, frequencies, function numbers and behaviors. The data analysis result can assist policymakers, health-care providers, and experts in medicine, public health, nursing and psychology and has been provided to Taiwan National Health Insurance Administration to assess the elder health-promoting behavior.

Barriers' and policies' analysis of China's building energy efficiency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Yurong; Wang, Yuanfeng

2013-01-01

With the rapid economic growth and the improvement of people's living standards, China's building energy consumption has kept rising during the past 15 years. Under the effort of the Chinese government and the society, China's building energy efficiency has made certain achievements. However, the implementation of building energy efficiency in China is still far from its potential. Based on the analysis of the existing policies implemented in China, the article concluded that the most essential and the most effective ways to promote building energy efficiency is the government's involvement as well as economic and financial incentives. In addition, the main barriers in the process of promoting building energy efficiency in China are identified in six aspects. It has been found that the legal system and administrative issues constitute major barriers, and the lack of financial incentives and the mismatching of market mechanism also hamper the promotion of building energy efficiency. Finally, in view of the existing policies and barriers analysis, three corresponding policy proposals are presented. -- Highlights: •The existing policies implemented in China from three aspects are presented and analysed. •The Government's involvement is the most essential effective way to promote building-energy efficiency. •Six aspects of barriers in promoting building energy efficiency in China are identified. •The legal system and administrative issues constitute the major barriers. •Three policy proposals to further promote building energy efficiency in China are proposed

The history of NATO TNF policy: The role of studies, analysis and exercises conference proceedings. Volume 2: Papers and presentations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rinne, R.L.

1994-02-01

This conference was organized to study and analyze the role of simulation, analysis, modeling, and exercises in the history of NATO policy. The premise was not that the results of past studies will apply to future policy, but rather that understanding what influenced the decision process -- and how -- would be of value. The structure of the conference was built around discussion panels. The panels were augmented by a series of papers and presentations focusing on particular TNF events, issues, studies, or exercises. The conference proceedings consist of three volumes. Volume 1 contains the conference introduction, agenda, biographical sketches of principal participants, and analytical summary of the presentations and panels. This volume contains a short introduction and the papers and presentations from the conference. Volume 3 contains selected papers by Brig. Gen. Robert C. Richardson III (Ret.). Individual papers in this volume were abstracted and indexed for the database.

Energy policies of Hungary: 1995 survey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

Great progress has been made towards adapting the energy sector of the Hungarian economy to perform effectively in an increasingly market oriented economy since the last IEA Survey in 1991. This new report reviews progress in restructuring energy industries and developments in energy markets, privatisation policy and regulatory arrangements. it also examines issues of energy supply security and environmental protection. Analysis of energy supply and demand is based on the most authoritative data available and the Survey concludes with a series of recommendations designed to further achievement of the Government's energy policy objectives. The Government is applauded for building emergency oil stocks in line with IEA policy and for progress in industrial restructuring and price reform. At the same time the need to complete price reforms to schedule is underlined and the Government is urged to complete regulatory arrangements well ahead of the planned privatisation of gas and electricity industries to ensure success. (authors). 60 tabs

Fractal time series analysis of postural stability in elderly and control subjects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Doussot Michel

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The study of balance using stabilogram analysis is of particular interest in the study of falls. Although simple statistical parameters derived from the stabilogram have been shown to predict risk of falls, such measures offer little insight into the underlying control mechanisms responsible for degradation in balance. In contrast, fractal and non-linear time-series analysis of stabilograms, such as estimations of the Hurst exponent (H, may provide information related to the underlying motor control strategies governing postural stability. In order to be adapted for a home-based follow-up of balance, such methods need to be robust, regardless of the experimental protocol, while producing time-series that are as short as possible. The present study compares two methods of calculating H: Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA and Stabilogram Diffusion Analysis (SDA for elderly and control subjects, as well as evaluating the effect of recording duration. Methods Centre of pressure signals were obtained from 90 young adult subjects and 10 elderly subjects. Data were sampled at 100 Hz for 30 s, including stepping onto and off the force plate. Estimations of H were made using sliding windows of 10, 5, and 2.5 s durations, with windows slid forward in 1-s increments. Multivariate analysis of variance was used to test for the effect of time, age and estimation method on the Hurst exponent, while the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC was used as a measure of reliability. Results Both SDA and DFA methods were able to identify differences in postural stability between control and elderly subjects for time series as short as 5 s, with ICC values as high as 0.75 for DFA. Conclusion Both methods would be well-suited to non-invasive longitudinal assessment of balance. In addition, reliable estimations of H were obtained from time series as short as 5 s.

Streamlining Policy Creation in Policy Frameworks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M.A. Hills (Mark); N. Martí-Oliet; M. Palomino

2012-01-01

textabstract{\\it Policy frameworks} provide a technique for improving reuse in program analysis: the same language frontend, and a core analysis semantics, can be shared among multiple analysis policies for the same language, while analysis domains (such as units of measurement) can be shared among

Modeling malaria control intervention effect in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa using intervention time series analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ebhuoma, Osadolor; Gebreslasie, Michael; Magubane, Lethumusa

The change of the malaria control intervention policy in South Africa (SA), re-introduction of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), may be responsible for the low and sustained malaria transmission in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN). We evaluated the effect of the re-introduction of DDT on malaria in KZN and suggested practical ways the province can strengthen her already existing malaria control and elimination efforts, to achieve zero malaria transmission. We obtained confirmed monthly malaria cases in KZN from the malaria control program of KZN from 1998 to 2014. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) intervention time series analysis (ITSA) was employed to model the effect of the re-introduction of DDT on confirmed monthly malaria cases. The result is an abrupt and permanent decline of monthly malaria cases (w 0 =-1174.781, p-value=0.003) following the implementation of the intervention policy. The sustained low malaria cases observed over a long period suggests that the continued usage of DDT did not result in insecticide resistance as earlier anticipated. It may be due to exophagic malaria vectors, which renders the indoor residual spraying not totally effective. Therefore, the feasibility of reducing malaria transmission to zero in KZN requires other reliable and complementary intervention resources to optimize the existing ones. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Bayesian near-boundary analysis in basic macroeconomic time series models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M.D. de Pooter (Michiel); F. Ravazzolo (Francesco); R. Segers (René); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

2008-01-01

textabstractSeveral lessons learnt from a Bayesian analysis of basic macroeconomic time series models are presented for the situation where some model parameters have substantial posterior probability near the boundary of the parameter region. This feature refers to near-instability within dynamic

Quality in environmental science for policy: assessing uncertainty as a component of policy analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Maxim, L.; van der Sluijs, J.P.

2011-01-01

The sheer number of attempts to define and classify uncertainty reveals an awareness of its importance in environmental science for policy, though the nature of uncertainty is often misunderstood. The interdisciplinary field of uncertainty analysis is unstable; there are currently several incomplete

International Work-Conference on Time Series

CERN Document Server

Pomares, Héctor; Valenzuela, Olga

2017-01-01

This volume of selected and peer-reviewed contributions on the latest developments in time series analysis and forecasting updates the reader on topics such as analysis of irregularly sampled time series, multi-scale analysis of univariate and multivariate time series, linear and non-linear time series models, advanced time series forecasting methods, applications in time series analysis and forecasting, advanced methods and online learning in time series and high-dimensional and complex/big data time series. The contributions were originally presented at the International Work-Conference on Time Series, ITISE 2016, held in Granada, Spain, June 27-29, 2016. The series of ITISE conferences provides a forum for scientists, engineers, educators and students to discuss the latest ideas and implementations in the foundations, theory, models and applications in the field of time series analysis and forecasting.  It focuses on interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary rese arch encompassing the disciplines of comput...

Policy Pathways: Energy Performance Certification of Buildings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2010-07-01

Improving energy efficiency is one of the most effective measures to address energy security, climate change and economic objectives. The Policy Pathways series can help countries capture this potential by assisting with the implementation of the 25 energy efficiency policy recommendations that were published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in 2008. This policy pathway on energy performance certification of buildings is the second in the series. It aims to provide a 'how-to' guide to policy makers and relevant stakeholders on the essential elements in implementing energy performance certification of buildings programmes. Energy performance certification of buildings is a way to rate the energy efficiency of individual buildings -- whether they be residential, commercial or public. It is a key policy instrument that can assist governments in reducing energy consumption in buildings. This policy pathway showcases experiences from countries around the world to show examples of good practice and delivers a pathway of ten critical steps to implement energy performance certification of buildings programmes.

Quality in environmental science for policy: Assessing uncertainty as a component of policy analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maxim, Laura; Sluijs, Jeroen P. van der

2011-01-01

The sheer number of attempts to define and classify uncertainty reveals an awareness of its importance in environmental science for policy, though the nature of uncertainty is often misunderstood. The interdisciplinary field of uncertainty analysis is unstable; there are currently several incomplete notions of uncertainty leading to different and incompatible uncertainty classifications. One of the most salient shortcomings of present-day practice is that most of these classifications focus on quantifying uncertainty while ignoring the qualitative aspects that tend to be decisive in the interface between science and policy. Consequently, the current practices of uncertainty analysis contribute to increasing the perceived precision of scientific knowledge, but do not adequately address its lack of socio-political relevance. The 'positivistic' uncertainty analysis models (like those that dominate the fields of climate change modelling and nuclear or chemical risk assessment) have little social relevance, as they do not influence negotiations between stakeholders. From the perspective of the science-policy interface, the current practices of uncertainty analysis are incomplete and incorrectly focused. We argue that although scientific knowledge produced and used in a context of political decision-making embodies traditional scientific characteristics, it also holds additional properties linked to its influence on social, political, and economic relations. Therefore, the significance of uncertainty cannot be assessed based on quality criteria that refer to the scientific content only; uncertainty must also include quality criteria specific to the properties and roles of this scientific knowledge within political, social, and economic contexts and processes. We propose a conceptual framework designed to account for such substantive, contextual, and procedural criteria of knowledge quality. At the same time, the proposed framework includes and synthesizes the various

Green Power voluntary purchases: Price elasticity and policy analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mewton, Ross T.; Cacho, Oscar J.

2011-01-01

Green Power schemes offer electricity from renewable energy sources to customers for a higher price than ordinary electricity. This study examines the demand characteristics of Green Power in Australia and policies which could increase its sales. A sample of 250 pooled time series and cross sectional observations was used to estimate a statistically significant elasticity of demand for Green Power with respect to price of -0.96 with a 95% confidence interval of ±68%. The wide variation in market penetration between jurisdictions and between countries for Green Power, and the low awareness of Green Power found by surveys indicate that Green Power sales could be increased by appropriate marketing and government policies. The most cost effective means to increase sales was found to be advertising campaigns although only one Australian example was found, in the state of Victoria in 2005. It was also found that full tax deductibility of the Green Power premium to residential customers, exemption from the Goods and Services Tax and a tax rebate for Green Power are all probably less cost effective for promoting sales than direct government purchase of Green Power, in terms of cost per unit of increased sales.

Green Power voluntary purchases: Price elasticity and policy analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mewton, Ross T., E-mail: rtmewton@hotmail.co [University of New England (Australia); Cacho, Oscar J. [School of Business Economics and Public Policy, School of Economics, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351 (Australia)

2011-01-15

Green Power schemes offer electricity from renewable energy sources to customers for a higher price than ordinary electricity. This study examines the demand characteristics of Green Power in Australia and policies which could increase its sales. A sample of 250 pooled time series and cross sectional observations was used to estimate a statistically significant elasticity of demand for Green Power with respect to price of -0.96 with a 95% confidence interval of {+-}68%. The wide variation in market penetration between jurisdictions and between countries for Green Power, and the low awareness of Green Power found by surveys indicate that Green Power sales could be increased by appropriate marketing and government policies. The most cost effective means to increase sales was found to be advertising campaigns although only one Australian example was found, in the state of Victoria in 2005. It was also found that full tax deductibility of the Green Power premium to residential customers, exemption from the Goods and Services Tax and a tax rebate for Green Power are all probably less cost effective for promoting sales than direct government purchase of Green Power, in terms of cost per unit of increased sales.

Green Power voluntary purchases. Price elasticity and policy analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mewton, Ross T. [University of New England (Australia); Cacho, Oscar J. [School of Business Economics and Public Policy, School of Economics, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351 (Australia)

2011-01-15

Green Power schemes offer electricity from renewable energy sources to customers for a higher price than ordinary electricity. This study examines the demand characteristics of Green Power in Australia and policies which could increase its sales. A sample of 250 pooled time series and cross sectional observations was used to estimate a statistically significant elasticity of demand for Green Power with respect to price of -0.96 with a 95% confidence interval of {+-}68%. The wide variation in market penetration between jurisdictions and between countries for Green Power, and the low awareness of Green Power found by surveys indicate that Green Power sales could be increased by appropriate marketing and government policies. The most cost effective means to increase sales was found to be advertising campaigns although only one Australian example was found, in the state of Victoria in 2005. It was also found that full tax deductibility of the Green Power premium to residential customers, exemption from the Goods and Services Tax and a tax rebate for Green Power are all probably less cost effective for promoting sales than direct government purchase of Green Power, in terms of cost per unit of increased sales. (author)

Arab drama series content analysis from a transnational Arab identity perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joelle Chamieh

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The scientific contribution in deciphering drama series falls under the discipline of understanding the narratology of distinctive cultures and traditions within specific contexts of certain societies. This article spells out the interferences deployed by the provocations that are induced through the functions of values in modeling societies which are projected through the transmission of media. The proposed operational model consists of providing an à priori design of common Arab values assimilated into an innovative grid analysis code book that has enabled the execution of a systematic and reliable approach to the quantitative content analysis performance. Additionally, a more thorough qualitative content analysis has been implemented in terms of narratolgy where actions have been evaluated based on the grid analysis code book for a clearer perception of Arab values depicted in terms of their context within the Arab drama milieu. This approach has been deployed on four Arab drama series covering the transnational/national and non-divisive/divisive media aspects in the intention of extracting the transmitted values from a common identity perspective for cause of divulging Arab people’s expectancies.

Physical inactivity as a policy problem: applying a concept from policy analysis to a public health issue.

Science.gov (United States)

Rütten, Alfred; Abu-Omar, Karim; Gelius, Peter; Schow, Diana

2013-03-07

Despite the recent rapid development of policies to counteract physical inactivity (PI), only a small number of systematic analyses on the evolution of these policies exists. In this article we analyze how PI, as a public health issue, "translates" into a policy-making issue. First, we discuss why PI has become an increasingly important public health issue during the last two decades. We then follow Guy Peters and conceptualize PI as a "policy problem" that has the potential to be linked to policy instruments and policy impact. Analysis indicates that PI is a policy problem that i) is chronic in nature; ii) involves a high degree of political complexity; iii) can be disaggregated into smaller scales; iv) is addressed through interventions that can be difficult to "sell" to the public when their benefits are not highly divisible; v) cannot be solved by government spending alone; vi) must be addressed through a broad scope of activities; and vii) involves interdependencies among both multiple sectors and levels of government.We conclude that the new perspective on PI proposed in this article might be useful and important for i) describing and mapping policies to counteract PI in different contexts; ii) evaluating whether or not existing policy instruments are appropriate to the policy problem of PI, and iii) explaining the factors and processes that underlie policy development and implementation. More research is warranted in all these areas. In particular, we propose to focus on comparative analyses of how the problem of PI is defined and tackled in different contexts, and on the identification of truly effective policy instruments that are designed to "solve" the PI policy problem.

Development and application of dynamic hybrid multi-region inventory analysis for macro-level environmental policy analysis: a case study on climate policy in Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Chia-Wei; Heijungs, Reinout; Ma, Hwong-wen

2013-03-19

We develop a novel inventory method called Dynamic Hybrid Multi-Region Inventory analysis (DHMRI), which integrates the EEMRIOA and Integrated Hybrid LCA and applies time-dependent environmental intervention information for inventory analysis. Consequently, DHMRI is able to quantify the change in the environmental footprint caused by a specific policy while taking structural changes and technological dynamics into consideration. DHMRI is applied to assess the change in the total CO2 emissions associated with the total final demand caused by the climate policy in Taiwan to demonstrate the practicality of this novel method. The evaluation reveals that the implementation of mitigation measures included in the existing climate policy, such as an enhancement in energy efficiency, promotion of renewable energy, and limitation of the growth of energy-intensive industries, will lead to a 28% increase in the total CO2 emissions and that the main driver is the export-oriented electronics industry. Moreover, a major increase in the total emissions is predicted to occur in Southeast Asia and China. The observations from the case study reveal that DHMRI is capable of overcoming the limitations of existing assessment tools at macro-level evaluation of environmental policies.

Flood Frequency Analysis For Partial Duration Series In Ganjiang River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

zhangli, Sun; xiufang, Zhu; yaozhong, Pan

2016-04-01

Accurate estimation of flood frequency is key to effective, nationwide flood damage abatement programs. The partial duration series (PDS) method is widely used in hydrologic studies because it considers all events above a certain threshold level as compared to the annual maximum series (AMS) method, which considers only the annual maximum value. However, the PDS has a drawback in that it is difficult to define the thresholds and maintain an independent and identical distribution of the partial duration time series; this drawback is discussed in this paper. The Ganjiang River is the seventh largest tributary of the Yangtze River, the longest river in China. The Ganjiang River covers a drainage area of 81,258 km2 at the Wanzhou hydrologic station as the basin outlet. In this work, 56 years of daily flow data (1954-2009) from the Wanzhou station were used to analyze flood frequency, and the Pearson-III model was employed as the hydrologic probability distribution. Generally, three tasks were accomplished: (1) the threshold of PDS by percentile rank of daily runoff was obtained; (2) trend analysis of the flow series was conducted using PDS; and (3) flood frequency analysis was conducted for partial duration flow series. The results showed a slight upward trend of the annual runoff in the Ganjiang River basin. The maximum flow with a 0.01 exceedance probability (corresponding to a 100-year flood peak under stationary conditions) was 20,000 m3/s, while that with a 0.1 exceedance probability was 15,000 m3/s. These results will serve as a guide to hydrological engineering planning, design, and management for policymakers and decision makers associated with hydrology.

Cluster analysis of activity-time series in motor learning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Balslev, Daniela; Nielsen, Finn Å; Futiger, Sally A

2002-01-01

Neuroimaging studies of learning focus on brain areas where the activity changes as a function of time. To circumvent the difficult problem of model selection, we used a data-driven analytic tool, cluster analysis, which extracts representative temporal and spatial patterns from the voxel......-time series. The optimal number of clusters was chosen using a cross-validated likelihood method, which highlights the clustering pattern that generalizes best over the subjects. Data were acquired with PET at different time points during practice of a visuomotor task. The results from cluster analysis show...

New Zealand Asia-Pacific energy series country report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yamaguchi, N.D.; Keevill, H.D.

1992-03-01

This report on New Zealand is one of a series of country studies intended to provide a continuous, long-term source of energy sector analysis for the Asia-Pacific region. This report addresses significant changes occurring due to the reform, deregulation, and privatization of the economy in general and the energy sector in particular; provides the reader with an overview of the economic and political situation; petroleum and gas issues are highlighted, particularly the implications of foreign trade in oil and gas; provides the latest available statistics and insights to energy policy that are not generally available elsewhere.

Time Series in Education: The Analysis of Daily Attendance in Two High Schools

Science.gov (United States)

Koopmans, Matthijs

2011-01-01

This presentation discusses the use of a time series approach to the analysis of daily attendance in two urban high schools over the course of one school year (2009-10). After establishing that the series for both schools were stationary, they were examined for moving average processes, autoregression, seasonal dependencies (weekly cycles),…

A Reception Analysis on the Youth Audiences of TV Series in Marivan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Omid Karimi

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to describe the role of foreign media as the agitators of popular culture. For that with reception analysis it’s pay to describe decoding of youth audiences about this series. Globalization theory and Reception in Communication theory are formed the theoretical system of current article. The methodology in this research is qualitative one, and two techniques as in-depth interview and observation are used for data collection. The results show different people based on individual features, social and cultural backgrounds have inclination toward special characters and identify with them. This inclination so far the audience fallow the series because of his/her favorite character. Also there is a great compatibility between audience backgrounds and their receptions. A number of audience have criticized the series and point out the negative consequences on its society. However, seeing the series continue; really they prefer watching series enjoying to risks of it.

Keeping it pure – a pedagogical case study of teaching soft systems methodology in scenario and policy analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ian Yeoman

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Purpose – Soft systems methodology (SSM is well documented in the academic and management literature. Over the last 40 years, the methodology has come to be adapted depending on the tool users’ skills and experience in order to fit the problem. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate good teaching and learning practice from a pedagogical perspective. Design/methodology/approach – Dr Ian Yeoman of Victoria University of Wellington provides a personal reflection of how the methodology is used in the teaching and learning of TOUR301 Tourism Policy and Planning as a policy and scenario analysis method. Findings – The paper articulates the seven stages of SSM from problem situation unstructured, through to Rich Pictures, vision and guiding principles, policy solutions, comparisons, feasibility and implementation stages. The paper uses a series of teaching tasks to breakdown the complexity of the methodology thus guiding students and teachers in how to deploy the methodology in the classroom. Originality/value – The value of the paper demonstrates the reflective practice of SSM in action as an exemplar of good practice. The paper clearly articulates the stages of the methodology so students and teachers can adopt this approach in classroom environments following a scaffolding learning approach. The use of teaching tasks throughout the paper helps bring clarity and order thus enabling the teacher to effectively teach the subject and the students to learn. The most significant contribution of this paper is the articulation of good teaching practice in policy and scenario analysis which articulated through four learning lessons: facilitating a learning environment; the impact of visual thinking; political theory; the importance of incremental learning; and problem-based learning and international students.

Statistical Compilation of the ICT Sector and Policy Analysis | Page 2 ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

... to widen and deepen, so too does its impact on economic development. ... The outcomes of such efforts will subsequently inform policy discourse and ... Studies. Statistical Compilation of the ICT Sector and Policy Analysis project : country experiences; Malaysia ... Asian outlook: New growth dependent on new productivity.

Time series analysis of monthly pulpwood use in the Northeast

Science.gov (United States)

James T. Bones

1980-01-01

Time series analysis was used to develop a model that depicts pulpwood use in the Northeast. The model is useful in forecasting future pulpwood requirements (short term) or monitoring pulpwood-use activity in relation to past use patterns. The model predicted a downturn in use during 1980.

Time Series Analysis Based on Running Mann Whitney Z Statistics

Science.gov (United States)

A sensitive and objective time series analysis method based on the calculation of Mann Whitney U statistics is described. This method samples data rankings over moving time windows, converts those samples to Mann-Whitney U statistics, and then normalizes the U statistics to Z statistics using Monte-...

Time Series Analysis of 3D Coordinates Using Nonstochastic Observations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Velsink, H.

2016-01-01

Adjustment and testing of a combination of stochastic and nonstochastic observations is applied to the deformation analysis of a time series of 3D coordinates. Nonstochastic observations are constant values that are treated as if they were observations. They are used to formulate constraints on

Time Series Analysis of 3D Coordinates Using Nonstochastic Observations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hiddo Velsink

2016-01-01

From the article: Abstract Adjustment and testing of a combination of stochastic and nonstochastic observations is applied to the deformation analysis of a time series of 3D coordinates. Nonstochastic observations are constant values that are treated as if they were observations. They are used to

Unified functional network and nonlinear time series analysis for complex systems science: The pyunicorn package

Science.gov (United States)

Donges, Jonathan; Heitzig, Jobst; Beronov, Boyan; Wiedermann, Marc; Runge, Jakob; Feng, Qing Yi; Tupikina, Liubov; Stolbova, Veronika; Donner, Reik; Marwan, Norbert; Dijkstra, Henk; Kurths, Jürgen

2016-04-01

We introduce the pyunicorn (Pythonic unified complex network and recurrence analysis toolbox) open source software package for applying and combining modern methods of data analysis and modeling from complex network theory and nonlinear time series analysis. pyunicorn is a fully object-oriented and easily parallelizable package written in the language Python. It allows for the construction of functional networks such as climate networks in climatology or functional brain networks in neuroscience representing the structure of statistical interrelationships in large data sets of time series and, subsequently, investigating this structure using advanced methods of complex network theory such as measures and models for spatial networks, networks of interacting networks, node-weighted statistics, or network surrogates. Additionally, pyunicorn provides insights into the nonlinear dynamics of complex systems as recorded in uni- and multivariate time series from a non-traditional perspective by means of recurrence quantification analysis, recurrence networks, visibility graphs, and construction of surrogate time series. The range of possible applications of the library is outlined, drawing on several examples mainly from the field of climatology. pyunicorn is available online at https://github.com/pik-copan/pyunicorn. Reference: J.F. Donges, J. Heitzig, B. Beronov, M. Wiedermann, J. Runge, Q.-Y. Feng, L. Tupikina, V. Stolbova, R.V. Donner, N. Marwan, H.A. Dijkstra, and J. Kurths, Unified functional network and nonlinear time series analysis for complex systems science: The pyunicorn package, Chaos 25, 113101 (2015), DOI: 10.1063/1.4934554, Preprint: arxiv.org:1507.01571 [physics.data-an].

On the relationship between health, education and economic growth: Time series evidence from Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Habib Nawaz; Razali, Radzuan B.; Shafei, Afza Bt.

2016-11-01

The objectives of this paper is two-fold: First, to empirically investigate the effects of an enlarged number of healthy and well-educated people on economic growth in Malaysia within the Endogeneous Growth Model framework. Second, to examine the causal links between education, health and economic growth using annual time series data from 1981 to 2014 for Malaysia. Data series were checked for the time series properties by using ADF and KPSS tests. Long run co-integration relationship was investigated with the help of vector autoregressive (VAR) method. For short and long run dynamic relationship investigation vector error correction model (VECM) was applied. Causality analysis was performed through Engle-Granger technique. The study results showed long run co-integration relation and positively significant effects of education and health on economic growth in Malaysia. The reported results also confirmed a feedback hypothesis between the variables in the case of Malaysia. The study results have policy relevance of the importance of human capital (health and education) to the growth process of the Malaysia. Thus, it is suggested that policy makers focus on education and health sectors for sustainable economic growth in Malaysia.

Time series analysis of temporal networks

Science.gov (United States)

Sikdar, Sandipan; Ganguly, Niloy; Mukherjee, Animesh

2016-01-01

A common but an important feature of all real-world networks is that they are temporal in nature, i.e., the network structure changes over time. Due to this dynamic nature, it becomes difficult to propose suitable growth models that can explain the various important characteristic properties of these networks. In fact, in many application oriented studies only knowing these properties is sufficient. For instance, if one wishes to launch a targeted attack on a network, this can be done even without the knowledge of the full network structure; rather an estimate of some of the properties is sufficient enough to launch the attack. We, in this paper show that even if the network structure at a future time point is not available one can still manage to estimate its properties. We propose a novel method to map a temporal network to a set of time series instances, analyze them and using a standard forecast model of time series, try to predict the properties of a temporal network at a later time instance. To our aim, we consider eight properties such as number of active nodes, average degree, clustering coefficient etc. and apply our prediction framework on them. We mainly focus on the temporal network of human face-to-face contacts and observe that it represents a stochastic process with memory that can be modeled as Auto-Regressive-Integrated-Moving-Average (ARIMA). We use cross validation techniques to find the percentage accuracy of our predictions. An important observation is that the frequency domain properties of the time series obtained from spectrogram analysis could be used to refine the prediction framework by identifying beforehand the cases where the error in prediction is likely to be high. This leads to an improvement of 7.96% (for error level ≤20%) in prediction accuracy on an average across all datasets. As an application we show how such prediction scheme can be used to launch targeted attacks on temporal networks. Contribution to the Topical Issue

Policy content and stakeholder network analysis for infant and young child feeding in Bangladesh

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sabrina Rasheed

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Appropriate infant and young child feeding (IYCF practices are essential for nutrition of infants and young children. Bangladesh has one of the highest levels of malnutrition globally along with sub-optimal IYCF practices. A supportive policy environment is essential to ensure that effective IYCF interventions are scaled up. The objectives of our study were to assess the support for IYCF in the national policy environment through policy analysis and stakeholder analysis and in so doing identify opportunities to strengthen the policy environment. Methods We used a matrix developed by SAIFRN (the South Asian Infant Feeding Research Network to systematically identify supportive national policies, plans and guidelines for IYCF. We adapted narrative synthesis and descriptive approaches to analyze policy content, based on four themes with a focus on support for mothers. We conducted three Net-Map interviews to identify stakeholders who influenced the policies and programs related to IYCF. Results We identified 19 national policy documents relevant to IYCF. Overall, there was good level of support for IYCF practices at policy level – particularly regarding general support for IYCF and provision of information to mothers – but these were not consistently supported at implementation level, particularly regarding specificity and population coverage. We identified gaps regarding the training of health workers, capacity building, the monitoring and targeting of vulnerable mothers and providing an enabling environment to mothers, specifically with respect to maternity leave for working women. Urban populations and providers outside the public sector remained uncovered by policy. Our stakeholder analysis identified government entities such as the National Nutrition Service, as the most influential in terms of both technical and funding support as they had the mandate for formulation and implementation of policies and national programs

Policy content and stakeholder network analysis for infant and young child feeding in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Rasheed, Sabrina; Roy, Swapan Kumar; Das, Susmita; Chowdhury, Syeda Nafisa; Iqbal, Mohammad; Akter, Syeda Mahsina; Jahan, Khurshid; Uddin, Shahadat; Thow, Anne Marie

2017-06-13

Appropriate infant and young child feeding (IYCF) practices are essential for nutrition of infants and young children. Bangladesh has one of the highest levels of malnutrition globally along with sub-optimal IYCF practices. A supportive policy environment is essential to ensure that effective IYCF interventions are scaled up. The objectives of our study were to assess the support for IYCF in the national policy environment through policy analysis and stakeholder analysis and in so doing identify opportunities to strengthen the policy environment. We used a matrix developed by SAIFRN (the South Asian Infant Feeding Research Network) to systematically identify supportive national policies, plans and guidelines for IYCF. We adapted narrative synthesis and descriptive approaches to analyze policy content, based on four themes with a focus on support for mothers. We conducted three Net-Map interviews to identify stakeholders who influenced the policies and programs related to IYCF. We identified 19 national policy documents relevant to IYCF. Overall, there was good level of support for IYCF practices at policy level - particularly regarding general support for IYCF and provision of information to mothers - but these were not consistently supported at implementation level, particularly regarding specificity and population coverage. We identified gaps regarding the training of health workers, capacity building, the monitoring and targeting of vulnerable mothers and providing an enabling environment to mothers, specifically with respect to maternity leave for working women. Urban populations and providers outside the public sector remained uncovered by policy. Our stakeholder analysis identified government entities such as the National Nutrition Service, as the most influential in terms of both technical and funding support as they had the mandate for formulation and implementation of policies and national programs. Stakeholders from different sectors played important

Nitrates in ground and drinking water: analysis of policies and regulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Conrad, J

1986-05-01

On the societal level, risks are the result of collective processes of definition. Accepted risks are mainly the output and secondarily the (scientific) input of these processes. As a consequence, in this paper the question of risk management of the nitrate burden to ground and drinking water is analysed within the framework of comparative policy analysis. Various actors pursue their respective interests in different policy arenas within the given rules of the policy game. The impacts of the policy outputs on the policy addressees, namely farmers and water companies, (substantially) determine the level of actual risk. Different national regulatory styles and traditions towards nitrate regulation shape the policy outputs. Consequently, the assumption or normative postulate of a rational (scientific) risk assessment and risk management appears to be utterly heroic and, in the end, misleading.

Global climate change policies. An analysis of CDM policies with an adapted GTAP model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Shunli

2004-01-01

In the context of the relationships between spatial-economic interaction and global warming just discussed, this study aims to analyze the Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) policies from an economic point of view. The research question of this study is formulated as follows: What will be the impacts of clirnate change policies, in particular CDM policies, on the economic performance of (groups of) countries in our global economic system, taking spatial interaction and general equilibrium effects into account? The purpose of addressing the issue of economic performance for (groups of) countries in the economic system is not just to identify winners and losers from international treaties. Rather, winning or losing may even determine the implementation and willingness of individual countries to participate in international environmental treaties, as illustrated by the recent withdrawal of the US from the Kyoto Protocol. By analyzing the economic impacts of an international environmental treaty for individual (groups of) countries, the framework that will be used to analyze this research question may be useful to determine the attractiveness of some global environmental policies, both for the world as a whole and for individual (groups of) countries. The research question will be answered by dividing it into six subquestions: (1) What is the position of CDM policies in the broad context of climate policy regimes?; (2) How should the relationship between human behavior and the physical environment be ideally modeled from an economic perspective? (3) How should the spatial dimension be incorporated in this framework of interaction between the economic and ecological system?; (4) How can climate change issues be incorporated in general equilibrium models in general, and in GTAP-E (extension of the Global Trade Analysis Project) in particular?; (5) How can CDM policies be implemented in the GTAP-E model?; and (6) What are the impacts of these climate change policies on

Language Ideology or Language Practice? An Analysis of Language Policy Documents at Swedish Universities

Science.gov (United States)

Björkman, Beyza

2014-01-01

This article presents an analysis and interpretation of language policy documents from eight Swedish universities with regard to intertextuality, authorship and content analysis of the notions of language practices and English as a lingua franca (ELF). The analysis is then linked to Spolsky's framework of language policy, namely language…

Science education policy for emergency, conflict, and post-conflict: An analysis of trends and implications for the science education program in Uganda

Science.gov (United States)

Udongo, Betty Pacutho

This study analyzes the impact of armed conflicts on the development of education policy and particularly science education program in Uganda. Since independence from the British colonial rule, Uganda has experienced a series of armed conflicts, with the most devastating being the 21 years of conflict in Northern Uganda. The research study was guided by the following questions: (1) What is the level of government funding towards improving science education program in Uganda? (2) Have recent initiatives, such as free Primary and Secondary education, compulsory science, and 75% sponsorship for science-based courses, had a measurable impact on the proportion of students from the conflict-affected regions who enter tertiary institutions to pursue science and technology programs? (3) To what extent do the Ugandan Education Policy and, in particular, the Science Education Policy effectively address the educational needs of students affected by armed conflicts? The study employed a mixed method design where both quantitative and qualitative data were collected and analyzed. Quantitative data were obtained from a comprehensive search of policy documents and content analysis of literature on education policy, science education programs, and impact of conflicts on educational delivery. Qualitative data were obtained from surveys and interviews distributed to policy makers, central government and the local government officials, teachers, and students from the war-ravaged Northern Uganda. Analysis of policy documents and respondents' views revealed that Uganda does not have a science education policy, and the present education policy does not fully address the educational needs of students studying in conflict-affected regions. It was further observed that fewer students from the conflict-affected regions qualify for government scholarship to study science courses in higher institutions of learning. The study recommended the following policy interventions: (a) affirmative

Advancing team-based primary health care: a comparative analysis of policies in western Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Suter, Esther; Mallinson, Sara; Misfeldt, Renee; Boakye, Omenaa; Nasmith, Louise; Wong, Sabrina T

2017-07-17

We analyzed and compared primary health care (PHC) policies in British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan to understand how they inform the design and implementation of team-based primary health care service delivery. The goal was to develop policy imperatives that can advance team-based PHC in Canada. We conducted comparative case studies (n = 3). The policy analysis included: Context review: We reviewed relevant information (2007 to 2014) from databases and websites. Policy review and comparative analysis: We compared and contrasted publically available PHC policies. Key informant interviews: Key informants (n = 30) validated narratives prepared from the comparative analysis by offering contextual information on potential policy imperatives. Advisory group and roundtable: An expert advisory group guided this work and a key stakeholder roundtable event guided prioritization of policy imperatives. The concept of team-based PHC varies widely across and within the three provinces. We noted policy gaps related to team configuration, leadership, scope of practice, role clarity and financing of team-based care; few policies speak explicitly to monitoring and evaluation of team-based PHC. We prioritized four policy imperatives: (1) alignment of goals and policies at different system levels; (2) investment of resources for system change; (3) compensation models for all members of the team; and (4) accountability through collaborative practice metrics. Policies supporting team-based PHC have been slow to emerge, lacking a systematic and coordinated approach. Greater alignment with specific consideration of financing, reimbursement, implementation mechanisms and performance monitoring could accelerate systemic transformation by removing some well-known barriers to team-based care.

Gender and housing policy in South Africa: Policy and practice in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

BlignautAS

, attitudes and values that communities and societies .... Society legitimises a family and housing ... this policy is to balance a Basic Needs approach with ...... New Working Paper Series. Issue 9. Lon- don. School of Economics. Gender Institute.

Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Suhaila, Jamaludin; Yusop, Zulkifli

2017-06-01

Most of the trend analysis that has been conducted has not considered the existence of a change point in the time series analysis. If these occurred, then the trend analysis will not be able to detect an obvious increasing or decreasing trend over certain parts of the time series. Furthermore, the lack of discussion on the possible factors that influenced either the decreasing or the increasing trend in the series needs to be addressed in any trend analysis. Hence, this study proposes to investigate the trends, and change point detection of mean, maximum and minimum temperature series, both annually and seasonally in Peninsular Malaysia and determine the possible factors that could contribute to the significance trends. In this study, Pettitt and sequential Mann-Kendall (SQ-MK) tests were used to examine the occurrence of any abrupt climate changes in the independent series. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature series suggested that most of the change points in Peninsular Malaysia were detected during the years 1996, 1997 and 1998. These detection points captured by Pettitt and SQ-MK tests are possibly related to climatic factors, such as El Niño and La Niña events. The findings also showed that the majority of the significant change points that exist in the series are related to the significant trend of the stations. Significant increasing trends of annual and seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures in Peninsular Malaysia were found with a range of 2-5 °C/100 years during the last 32 years. It was observed that the magnitudes of the increasing trend in minimum temperatures were larger than the maximum temperatures for most of the studied stations, particularly at the urban stations. These increases are suspected to be linked with the effect of urban heat island other than El Niño event.

The Timeseries Toolbox - A Web Application to Enable Accessible, Reproducible Time Series Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Veatch, W.; Friedman, D.; Baker, B.; Mueller, C.

2017-12-01

The vast majority of data analyzed by climate researchers are repeated observations of physical process or time series data. This data lends itself of a common set of statistical techniques and models designed to determine trends and variability (e.g., seasonality) of these repeated observations. Often, these same techniques and models can be applied to a wide variety of different time series data. The Timeseries Toolbox is a web application designed to standardize and streamline these common approaches to time series analysis and modeling with particular attention to hydrologic time series used in climate preparedness and resilience planning and design by the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers. The application performs much of the pre-processing of time series data necessary for more complex techniques (e.g. interpolation, aggregation). With this tool, users can upload any dataset that conforms to a standard template and immediately begin applying these techniques to analyze their time series data.

On statistical inference in time series analysis of the evolution of road safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Commandeur, Jacques J F; Bijleveld, Frits D; Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George; Papadimitriou, Eleonora

2013-11-01

Data collected for building a road safety observatory usually include observations made sequentially through time. Examples of such data, called time series data, include annual (or monthly) number of road traffic accidents, traffic fatalities or vehicle kilometers driven in a country, as well as the corresponding values of safety performance indicators (e.g., data on speeding, seat belt use, alcohol use, etc.). Some commonly used statistical techniques imply assumptions that are often violated by the special properties of time series data, namely serial dependency among disturbances associated with the observations. The first objective of this paper is to demonstrate the impact of such violations to the applicability of standard methods of statistical inference, which leads to an under or overestimation of the standard error and consequently may produce erroneous inferences. Moreover, having established the adverse consequences of ignoring serial dependency issues, the paper aims to describe rigorous statistical techniques used to overcome them. In particular, appropriate time series analysis techniques of varying complexity are employed to describe the development over time, relating the accident-occurrences to explanatory factors such as exposure measures or safety performance indicators, and forecasting the development into the near future. Traditional regression models (whether they are linear, generalized linear or nonlinear) are shown not to naturally capture the inherent dependencies in time series data. Dedicated time series analysis techniques, such as the ARMA-type and DRAG approaches are discussed next, followed by structural time series models, which are a subclass of state space methods. The paper concludes with general recommendations and practice guidelines for the use of time series models in road safety research. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Methodology for Participatory Policy Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Geurts, J.L.A.; Joldersma, F.

2001-01-01

In the course of time it has become clear that policy analysts who use traditional formal modeling techniques have limited impact on policy making regarding complex policy problems. These kinds of problems require the analyst to combine scientific insights with subjective knowledge resources and to

A Qualitative Stakeholder Analysis of Avian Influenza Policy in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Chattopadhyay, Kaushik; Fournié, Guillaume; Abul Kalam, Md; Biswas, Paritosh K; Hoque, Ahasanul; Debnath, Nitish C; Rahman, Mahmudur; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Harper, David; Heymann, David L

2017-11-13

Avian influenza is a major animal and public health concern in Bangladesh. A decade after development and implementation of the first national avian influenza and human pandemic influenza preparedness and response plan in Bangladesh, a two-stage qualitative stakeholder analysis was performed in relation to the policy development process and the actual policy. This study specifically aimed to identify the future policy options to prevent and control avian influenza and other poultry-related zoonotic diseases in Bangladesh. It was recommended that the policy should be based on the One Health concept, be evidence-based, sustainable, reviewed and updated as necessary. The future policy environment that is suitable for developing and implementing these policies should take into account the following points: the need to formally engage multiple sectors, the need for clear and acceptable leadership, roles and responsibilities and the need for a common pool of resources and provision for transferring resources. Most of these recommendations are directed towards the Government of Bangladesh. However, other sectors, including research and poultry production stakeholders, also have a major role to play to inform policy making and actively participate in the multi-sectoral approach.

The Fourier decomposition method for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Pushpendra; Joshi, Shiv Dutt; Patney, Rakesh Kumar; Saha, Kaushik

2017-03-01

for many decades, there has been a general perception in the literature that Fourier methods are not suitable for the analysis of nonlinear and non-stationary data. In this paper, we propose a novel and adaptive Fourier decomposition method (FDM), based on the Fourier theory, and demonstrate its efficacy for the analysis of nonlinear and non-stationary time series. The proposed FDM decomposes any data into a small number of 'Fourier intrinsic band functions' (FIBFs). The FDM presents a generalized Fourier expansion with variable amplitudes and variable frequencies of a time series by the Fourier method itself. We propose an idea of zero-phase filter bank-based multivariate FDM (MFDM), for the analysis of multivariate nonlinear and non-stationary time series, using the FDM. We also present an algorithm to obtain cut-off frequencies for MFDM. The proposed MFDM generates a finite number of band-limited multivariate FIBFs (MFIBFs). The MFDM preserves some intrinsic physical properties of the multivariate data, such as scale alignment, trend and instantaneous frequency. The proposed methods provide a time-frequency-energy (TFE) distribution that reveals the intrinsic structure of a data. Numerical computations and simulations have been carried out and comparison is made with the empirical mode decomposition algorithms.

Time series analysis of wind speed using VAR and the generalized impulse response technique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ewing, Bradley T. [Area of Information Systems and Quantitative Sciences, Rawls College of Business and Wind Science and Engineering Research Center, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409-2101 (United States); Kruse, Jamie Brown [Center for Natural Hazard Research, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC (United States); Schroeder, John L. [Department of Geosciences and Wind Science and Engineering Research Center, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX (United States); Smith, Douglas A. [Department of Civil Engineering and Wind Science and Engineering Research Center, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX (United States)

2007-03-15

This research examines the interdependence in time series wind speed data measured in the same location at four different heights. A multiple-equation system known as a vector autoregression is proposed for characterizing the time series dynamics of wind. Additionally, the recently developed method of generalized impulse response analysis provides insight into the cross-effects of the wind series and their responses to shocks. Findings are based on analysis of contemporaneous wind speed time histories taken at 13, 33, 70 and 160 ft above ground level with a sampling rate of 10 Hz. The results indicate that wind speeds measured at 70 ft was the most variable. Further, the turbulence persisted longer at the 70-ft measurement than at the other heights. The greatest interdependence is observed at 13 ft. Gusts at 160 ft led to the greatest persistence to an 'own' shock and led to greatest persistence in the responses of the other wind series. (author)

UNICEF's contribution to the adoption and implementation of option B+ for preventing mother-to-child transmission of HIV: a policy analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Chersich, M F; Newbatt, E; Ng'oma, K; de Zoysa, I

2018-06-01

Between 2011 and 2013, global and national guidelines for preventing mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV shifted to recommend Option B+, the provision of lifelong antiretroviral treatment for all HIV-infected pregnant women. We aimed to analyse how Option B+ reached the policy agenda, and unpack the processes, actors and politics that explain its adoption, with a focus on examining UNICEF's contribution to these events. Analysis drew on published articles and other documentation, 30 key informants interviews with staff at UNICEF, partner organisations and government officials, and country case studies. Cameroon, India, South Africa and Zimbabwe were each visited for 5-8 days. Interview transcripts were analysed using Dedoose software, reviewed several times and then coded thematically. A national policy initiative in Malawi in 2011, in which the country adopted Option B+, rather than existing WHO recommended regimens, irrevocably placed the policy on the global agenda. UNICEF and other organisations recognised the policy's potential impact and strategically crafted arguments to support it, framing these around operational considerations, cost-effectiveness and values. As 'policy entrepreneurs', these organisations vigorously promoted the policy through a variety of channels and means, overcoming concerted opposition. WHO, on the basis of scanty evidence, released a series of documents towards the policy's endorsement, paving the way for its widespread adoption. National-level policy transformation was rapid and definitive, distinct from previous incremental policy processes. Many organisations, including UNICEF, facilitated these changes in country, acting individually, or in concert. The adoption of the Option B+ policy marked a departure from established processes for PMTCT policy formulation which had been led by WHO with the support of technical experts, and in which recommendations were developed following shifts in evidence. Rather, changes were

Policy Pathways: A Tale of Renewed Cities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-08-01

Transport currently accounts for half of global oil consumption and nearly 20% of world energy use, of which approximately 40% is used in urban transport alone. The IEA expects urban transport energy consumption to double by 2050, despite ongoing vehicle technology and fuel-economy improvements. While increased mobility brings many benefits, the staggering rate of this increase creates new challenges. Urgent energy-efficiency policy attention will be needed to mitigate associated negative noise, air pollution, congestion, climate and economic impacts, all of which can cost countries billions of dollars per year. This report highlights lessons learned and examples of good practice from countries with experience implementing a wide range of measures to improve energy efficiency in urban transport systems. Part of the IEA Policy Pathway series, A Tale of Renewed Cities sets out key steps in planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation to achieve improved energy efficiency in urban transport systems. The Policy Pathway series aims to help policy makers implement the IEA 25 Energy Efficiency Policy Recommendations.

Analysis of cyclical behavior in time series of stock market returns

Science.gov (United States)

Stratimirović, Djordje; Sarvan, Darko; Miljković, Vladimir; Blesić, Suzana

2018-01-01

In this paper we have analyzed scaling properties and cyclical behavior of the three types of stock market indexes (SMI) time series: data belonging to stock markets of developed economies, emerging economies, and of the underdeveloped or transitional economies. We have used two techniques of data analysis to obtain and verify our findings: the wavelet transform (WT) spectral analysis to identify cycles in the SMI returns data, and the time-dependent detrended moving average (tdDMA) analysis to investigate local behavior around market cycles and trends. We found cyclical behavior in all SMI data sets that we have analyzed. Moreover, the positions and the boundaries of cyclical intervals that we found seam to be common for all markets in our dataset. We list and illustrate the presence of nine such periods in our SMI data. We report on the possibilities to differentiate between the level of growth of the analyzed markets by way of statistical analysis of the properties of wavelet spectra that characterize particular peak behaviors. Our results show that measures like the relative WT energy content and the relative WT amplitude of the peaks in the small scales region could be used to partially differentiate between market economies. Finally, we propose a way to quantify the level of development of a stock market based on estimation of local complexity of market's SMI series. From the local scaling exponents calculated for our nine peak regions we have defined what we named the Development Index, which proved, at least in the case of our dataset, to be suitable to rank the SMI series that we have analyzed in three distinct groups.

Development of analysis software for radiation time-series data with the use of visual studio 2005

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hohara, Sin-ya; Horiguchi, Tetsuo; Ito, Shin

2008-01-01

Time-Series Analysis supplies a new vision that conventional analysis methods such as energy spectroscopy haven't achieved ever. However, application of time-series analysis to radiation measurements needs much effort in software and hardware development. By taking advantage of Visual Studio 2005, we developed an analysis software, 'ListFileConverter', for time-series radiation measurement system called as 'MPA-3'. The software is based on graphical user interface (GUI) architecture that enables us to save a large amount of operation time in the analysis, and moreover to make an easy-access to special file structure of MPA-3 data. In this paper, detailed structure of ListFileConverter is fully explained, and experimental results for counting capability of MPA-3 hardware system and those for neutron measurements with our UTR-KINKI reactor are also given. (author)

Green electricity policy in the Netherlands. An analysis of policy decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rooijen, Sascha van; Wees, Mark van

2003-01-01

Over the last decades, fundamental changes in both market conditions and the national and international policy framework in the Netherlands can be observed. The Dutch Government has intervened in markets regularly, demonstrating fundamental shifts in policy and approach. This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in the Netherlands. It assesses changes in the choice of policy instruments and target groups, the role of stakeholders and offers explanations behind policy successes and failures. The following conclusions can be drawn on the policy choices: First, the objectives and targets of Dutch renewable energy policy were frequently ambiguous. Although the government emphasised the importance of investments in local capacity, imports were always (implicitly) seen as an alternative option in meeting targets. Second, for a long period the government focused on reducing investment costs and dismantling administrative barriers. Only recently has the lack of a stable investment climate been identified as a potential barrier. Third, although many stakeholders have advocated a mandatory approach, Dutch policies stimulating renewable energy have always been voluntary. Finally, the Ministry of Economic Affairs has always played a very dominant role in renewable energy policy formulation and implementation, which may explain the fact that some unfavourable market reactions to policies have not been foreseen. (author)

Determinant factors of residential consumption and perception of energy conservation: Time-series analysis by large-scale questionnaire in Suita, Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hara, Keishiro; Uwasu, Michinori; Kishita, Yusuke; Takeda, Hiroyuki

2015-01-01

In this study, we examined determinant factors associated with the residential consumption and perception of savings of electricity and city gas; this was based on data collected from a large-scale questionnaire sent to households in Suita, Osaka Prefecture, Japan, in two different years: 2009 and 2013. We applied an ordered logit model to determine the overall trend of the determinant factors, and then we performed a more detailed analysis in order to understand the reasons why the determinant factors changed between the two periods. Results from the ordered logit model reveal that electricity and gas consumption was primarily determined by such factors as household income, number of family members, the number of home appliances, and the perceptions of energy savings; there was not much difference between the two years, although in 2013, household income did not affect the perception of energy savings. Detailed analysis demonstrated that households with high energy consumption and those with moderate consumption are becoming polarized and that there was a growing gap between consumption behavior and the perception of conservation. The implications derived from the analyses provide an essential insight into the design of a municipal policy to induce lifestyle changes for an energy-saving society. - Highlights: • Questionnaire was conducted to households in two years for time-series analysis. • We analyzed residential energy consumption and perception of savings in households. • Determinant factors for consumption and perception of savings were identified. • Households being wasteful of energy are also found willing to cut consumption. • Policy intervention could affect consumption pattern and perception of savings.

A Content Analysis of School Anti-Bullying Policies in Northern Ireland

Science.gov (United States)

Purdy, Noel; Smith, Peter K.

2016-01-01

This original study presents a content analysis of 100 primary and post-primary school anti-bullying policies in Northern Ireland using a 36-item scoring scheme. Overall schools had 52% of the items in their policies. Most schools included reference to physical, verbal, relational, material and cyberbullying but a minority mentioned racist,…

Policy and stakeholder analysis of infant and young child feeding programmes in Sri Lanka

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sanjeeva S. P. Godakandage

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Infant and young child feeding practices (IYCF play a critical role in growth and development of children. A favourable environment supported by appropriate policies and positive contributions from all stakeholders are prerequisites for achieving optimal IYCF practices. This study aimed to assess the IYCF-related policy environment and role of stakeholders in policy making in Sri Lanka, in order to identify opportunities to strengthen the policy environment to better support appropriate IYCF and reduce childhood malnutrition. Methods We mapped national level policy-related documents on IYCF, and conducted a stakeholder analysis of IYCF policy making. A matrix was designed to capture data from IYCF policy-related documents using a thematic approach. A narrative synthesis of data from different documents was conducted to achieve the first objective. We then conducted an analysis of technical and funding links of stakeholders who shape IYCF policies and programmes in Sri Lanka using the Net-Map technique, to achieve the second objective. A total of 35 respondents were purposively selected based on their knowledge on the topic, and individual interviews were conducted. Results Twenty four policies were identified that contained provisions in line with global recommendations for best-practice IYCF, marketing of breast milk substitutes, strengthening health and non-health systems, maternity benefits, inter-sectoral collaboration, capacity building, health education and supplementation. However, there is no separate, written policy on IYCF in Sri Lanka. Participants identified 56 actors involved in shaping IYCF policies and programmes through technical support, and 36 through funding support. The Government Health Sector was the most connected as well as influential, followed by development partners. Almost all actors in the networks were supportive for IYCF policies and programmes. Conclusions and recommendations All evidence

Policy and stakeholder analysis of infant and young child feeding programmes in Sri Lanka.

Science.gov (United States)

Godakandage, Sanjeeva S P; Senarath, Upul; Jayawickrama, Hiranya S; Siriwardena, Indika; Wickramasinghe, S W A D A; Arumapperuma, Prasantha; Ihalagama, Sathyajith; Nimalan, Srisothinathan; Archchuna, Ramanathan; Umesh, Claudio; Uddin, Shahadat; Thow, Anne Marie

2017-06-13

Infant and young child feeding practices (IYCF) play a critical role in growth and development of children. A favourable environment supported by appropriate policies and positive contributions from all stakeholders are prerequisites for achieving optimal IYCF practices. This study aimed to assess the IYCF-related policy environment and role of stakeholders in policy making in Sri Lanka, in order to identify opportunities to strengthen the policy environment to better support appropriate IYCF and reduce childhood malnutrition. We mapped national level policy-related documents on IYCF, and conducted a stakeholder analysis of IYCF policy making. A matrix was designed to capture data from IYCF policy-related documents using a thematic approach. A narrative synthesis of data from different documents was conducted to achieve the first objective. We then conducted an analysis of technical and funding links of stakeholders who shape IYCF policies and programmes in Sri Lanka using the Net-Map technique, to achieve the second objective. A total of 35 respondents were purposively selected based on their knowledge on the topic, and individual interviews were conducted. Twenty four policies were identified that contained provisions in line with global recommendations for best-practice IYCF, marketing of breast milk substitutes, strengthening health and non-health systems, maternity benefits, inter-sectoral collaboration, capacity building, health education and supplementation. However, there is no separate, written policy on IYCF in Sri Lanka. Participants identified 56 actors involved in shaping IYCF policies and programmes through technical support, and 36 through funding support. The Government Health Sector was the most connected as well as influential, followed by development partners. Almost all actors in the networks were supportive for IYCF policies and programmes. All evidence-based recommendations are covered in related policies. However, advocacy should be targeted

An Analysis of Donald Trump's Political Personality Traits and Policy Orientations

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Yin Jiwu; Zheng Jianjun; Li Hongzhou

2017-01-01

As a political leader,US President Trump's personality traits affect his policy orientations and current US foreign policy.The authors analyze Trump's personality in several categories-uninhibited and capricious,dynamic and capable,profit-orientated and self-centered,competitive and persistent,positive and extraverted.The traits of breaking traditions,skill at strategic deception and negotiation,action-motivated implementation,intuitive decision-making,pursuit of respect and interest exchange,and vengefulness will shape his policy and behavioral orientations.Initial study shows Trump to be a political leader with positive personality traits and double-sided dimensions.The analysis offers insight toward understanding the new US executive and his policy direction.

Building-integrated renewable energy policy analysis in China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

姚春妮; 郝斌

2009-01-01

With the dramatic development of renewable energy all over the world,and for purpose of adjusting energy structure,the Ministry of Construction of China plans to promote the large scale application of renewable energy in buildings. In order to ensure the validity of policy-making,this work firstly exerts a method to do cost-benefit analysis for three kinds of technologies such as building-integrated solar hot water (BISHW) system,building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) technology and ground water heat pump (GWHP). Through selecting a representative city of every climate region,the analysis comes into different results for different climate regions in China and respectively different suggestion for policy-making. On the analysis basis,the Ministry of Construction (MOC) and the Ministry of Finance of China (MOF) united to start-up Building-integrated Renewable Energy Demonstration Projects (BIREDP) in 2006. In the demonstration projects,renewable energy takes place of traditional energy to supply the domestic hot water,electricity,air-conditioning and heating. Through carrying out the demonstration projects,renewable energy related market has been expanded. More and more relative companies and local governments take the opportunity to promote the large scale application of renewable energy in buildings.

Green electricity policies in the Netherlands: an analysis of policy decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rooijen, Sascha N.M. van; Wees, Mark T. van

2006-01-01

Over the last decades, fundamental changes can be observed in both market conditions and the national policy framework for green electricity in the Netherlands. The Dutch Government has regularly intervened in markets, demonstrating fundamental shifts in policy and approach. This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in the Netherlands. It assesses changes in the choice of policy instruments and target groups, the role of stakeholders, and offers explanations behind policy successes and failures. Dutch green electricity policy over the last decade can be characterised roughly by three phases: in the early 1990s, the government negotiated voluntary agreements with the energy distribution sector on targets for green electricity sales, which were never met. In the second half of the 1990s, a regulatory energy tax was introduced, from which customers of green electricity were exempt. This led to a substantial increase in demand, which was largely met by green electricity imports, and did not lead to additional domestic renewable energy capacity. Finally, a change in policy has taken place recently (2003) shifting the focus from promotion of demand to the promotion of supply through a system of regulated feed-in tariffs. Despite the renewable energy policies, growth of the renewable energy market in the Netherlands has been small and targets have not been fully met. The Dutch government has not yet succeeded in substantially reducing market uncertainties and in building confidence among market parties, because the policies have not been stable and policy objectives have frequently been partly ambiguous. In addition, the influence of stakeholders in renewable energy policy making has been small which has the early acceptance and implementation of alternative policies

Values in Health Policy – A Concept Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lida Shams

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Background Despite the significant role “values” play in decision-making no definition or attributes regarding the concept have been provided in health policy-making. This study aimed to clarify the defining attributes of a concept of value and its irrelevant structures in health policy-making. We anticipate our findings will help reduce the semantic ambiguities associated with the use of “values” and other concepts such as principles, criteria, attitudes, and beliefs. Methods An extensive search of literature was carried out using electronic data base and library. The overall search strategy yielded about 1540 articles and 450 additional records. Based on traditional qualitative research, studies were purposefully selected and the coding of articles continued until data saturation was reached. Accordingly, 31 articles, 2 books, and 5 other documents were selected for the review. We applied Walker and Avant’s method of concept analysis in studying the phenomenon. Definitions, applications, attributes, antecedents, and consequences of the concept of “value in health policy-making” were extracted. We also identified similarities and differences that exist between and within them. Results We identified eight major attributes of “value in health policy-making”: ideological origin, affect one’s choices, more resistant to change over time, source of motivation, ability to sacrifice one’s interest, goal-oriented nature for community, trans-situational and subjectivity. Other features pinpointed include alternatives, antecedents, and consequences. Alternative, antecedents and consequences case may have more or fewer attributes or may lack one of these attributes and at the same time have other distinctive ones. Conclusion Despite the use of the value framework, ambiguities still persist in providing definition of the concept value in health policy-making. Understanding the concept of value in health policy-making may provide extra

A Policy Analysis of Strategies to Manage Medical Holdovers

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Jones, Tammie M

2005-01-01

This study is a policy analysis of the Community Based Health Care Initiative (CBHCI) implemented to address the problems for Soldiers mobilized and deployed in support of Operations Noble Eagle, Enduring Freedom, and Iraqi Freedom...

A health app developer's guide to law and policy: a multi-sector policy analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Parker, Lisa; Karliychuk, Tanya; Gillies, Donna; Mintzes, Barbara; Raven, Melissa; Grundy, Quinn

2017-10-02

Apps targeted at health and wellbeing sit in a rapidly growing industry associated with widespread optimism about their potential to deliver accessible and cost-effective healthcare. App developers might not be aware of all the regulatory requirements and best practice principles are emergent. Health apps are regulated in order to minimise their potential for harm due to, for example, loss of personal health privacy, financial costs, and health harms from delayed or unnecessary diagnosis, monitoring and treatment. We aimed to produce a comprehensive guide to assist app developers in producing health apps that are legally compliant and in keeping with high professional standards of user protection. We conducted a case study analysis of the Australian and related international policy environment for mental health apps to identify relevant sectors, policy actors, and policy solutions. We identified 29 policies produced by governments and non-government organisations that provide oversight of health apps. In consultation with stakeholders, we developed an interactive tool targeted at app developers, summarising key features of the policy environment and highlighting legislative, industry and professional standards around seven relevant domains: privacy, security, content, promotion and advertising, consumer finances, medical device efficacy and safety, and professional ethics. We annotated this developer guidance tool with information about: the relevance of each domain; existing legislative and non-legislative guidance; critiques of existing policy; recommendations for developers; and suggestions for other key stakeholders. We anticipate that mental health apps developed in accordance with this tool will be more likely to conform to regulatory requirements, protect consumer privacy, protect consumer finances, and deliver health benefit; and less likely to attract regulatory penalties, offend consumers and communities, mislead consumers, or deliver health harms. We

Money supply growth and inflation – the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Svatopluk Kapounek

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The main aim of this article is to find out whether there is a significant relationship between money supply growth and inflation in the Eurozone. For this reason, the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB has been evaluated. Since the establishment of the ECB in January 1999 to May 2003 the ECB‘s monetary policy strategy consisted of three main elements: a quantitative definition of price stability, a prominent role for money in the assessment of risks to price stability (aggregate M3 as a reference value, and a broadly based assessment of the outlook for price developments. Nevertheless, since May 2003 M3 or any other monetary aggregate has lost its prominent role in the ECB‘s strategy. Therefore the nowadays ECB‘s monetary policy strategy consists of a quantitative definition of the primary objective of price stability and an analytical framework based on two pillars – economic analysis and monetary analysis. These two pillars are used by the ECB‘s Governing Council in the overall assessment of risks to price stability and in monetary policy decisions.The empirical part of this article is based on time series correlation between money supply growth and inflation in selected member countries of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU - Eurozone during the period 1995–2005. The time series are divided into two parts. The first part covers data for selected member countries of the European Union from 1995 till 1998, i.e. before the establishment of the EMU. Whereas the second part includes data for the whole Eurozone since its official start in 1999 to 2005. The time series are adjusted by SARIMA models.

A Filtering of Incomplete GNSS Position Time Series with Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Gruszczynski, Maciej; Klos, Anna; Bogusz, Janusz

2018-04-01

For the first time, we introduced the probabilistic principal component analysis (pPCA) regarding the spatio-temporal filtering of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time series to estimate and remove Common Mode Error (CME) without the interpolation of missing values. We used data from the International GNSS Service (IGS) stations which contributed to the latest International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF2014). The efficiency of the proposed algorithm was tested on the simulated incomplete time series, then CME was estimated for a set of 25 stations located in Central Europe. The newly applied pPCA was compared with previously used algorithms, which showed that this method is capable of resolving the problem of proper spatio-temporal filtering of GNSS time series characterized by different observation time span. We showed, that filtering can be carried out with pPCA method when there exist two time series in the dataset having less than 100 common epoch of observations. The 1st Principal Component (PC) explained more than 36% of the total variance represented by time series residuals' (series with deterministic model removed), what compared to the other PCs variances (less than 8%) means that common signals are significant in GNSS residuals. A clear improvement in the spectral indices of the power-law noise was noticed for the Up component, which is reflected by an average shift towards white noise from - 0.98 to - 0.67 (30%). We observed a significant average reduction in the accuracy of stations' velocity estimated for filtered residuals by 35, 28 and 69% for the North, East, and Up components, respectively. CME series were also subjected to analysis in the context of environmental mass loading influences of the filtering results. Subtraction of the environmental loading models from GNSS residuals provides to reduction of the estimated CME variance by 20 and 65% for horizontal and vertical components, respectively.

On-Line Booking Policies and Competitive Analysis of Medical Examination in Hospital

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Luo

2014-01-01

Full Text Available From the on-line point, we consider the hospital’s medical examination appointment problem with hierarchical machines. This approach eliminates the need for both demand forecasts and a risk-neutrality assumption. Due to different unit revenue, uncertain demand, and arrival of patients, we design on-line booking policies for two kinds of different situations from the perspective of on-line policy and competitive analysis. After that, we prove the optimal competitive ratios. Through numerical examples, we compare advantages and disadvantages between on-line policies and traditional policies, finding that there is different superiority for these two policies under different arrival sequences.

Promotion of physical activity in the European region: content analysis of 27 national policy documents

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Daugbjerg, Signe B; Kahlmeier, Sonja; Racioppi, Francesca

2009-01-01

. Population groups most in need such as people with low levels of physical activity were rarely specifically targeted. Most policies emphasized the importance of an evaluation. However, only about half of them indicated a related intention or requirement. CONCLUSION: In recent years there has been......BACKGROUND: Over the past years there has been increasing interest in physical activity promotion and the development of appropriate policy. So far, there has been no comprehensive overview of the activities taking place in Europe in this area of public health policy. METHODS: Using different...... search methods, 49 national policy documents on physical activity promotion were identified. An analysis grid covering key features was developed for the analysis of the 27 documents published in English. RESULTS: Analysis showed that many general recommendations for policy developments are being...

Economic analysis requirements in support of orbital debris regulatory policy

Science.gov (United States)

Greenberg, Joel S.

1996-10-01

As the number of Earth orbiting objects increases so does the potential for generating orbital debris with the consequent increase in the likelihood of impacting and damaging operating satellites. Various debris remediation approaches are being considered that encompass both in-orbit and return-to-Earth schema and have varying degrees of operations, cost, international competitiveness, and safety implications. Because of the diversity of issues, concerns and long-term impacts, there is a clear need for the setting of government policies that will lead to an orderly abatement of the potential orbital debris hazards. These policies may require the establishment of a supportive regulatory regime. The Department of Transportation is likely to have regulatory responsibilities relating to orbital debris stemming from its charge to protect the public health and safety, safety of property, and national security interests and foreign policy interests of the United States. This paper describes DOT's potential regulatory role relating to orbital debris remediation, the myriad of issues concerning the need for establishing government policies relating to orbital debris remediation and their regulatory implications, the proposed technological solutions and their economic and safety implications. Particular emphasis is placed upon addressing cost-effectiveness and economic analyses as they relate to economic impact analysis in support of regulatory impact analysis.

Time series analysis for psychological research: examining and forecasting change.

Science.gov (United States)

Jebb, Andrew T; Tay, Louis; Wang, Wei; Huang, Qiming

2015-01-01

Psychological research has increasingly recognized the importance of integrating temporal dynamics into its theories, and innovations in longitudinal designs and analyses have allowed such theories to be formalized and tested. However, psychological researchers may be relatively unequipped to analyze such data, given its many characteristics and the general complexities involved in longitudinal modeling. The current paper introduces time series analysis to psychological research, an analytic domain that has been essential for understanding and predicting the behavior of variables across many diverse fields. First, the characteristics of time series data are discussed. Second, different time series modeling techniques are surveyed that can address various topics of interest to psychological researchers, including describing the pattern of change in a variable, modeling seasonal effects, assessing the immediate and long-term impact of a salient event, and forecasting future values. To illustrate these methods, an illustrative example based on online job search behavior is used throughout the paper, and a software tutorial in R for these analyses is provided in the Supplementary Materials.

Time series analysis for psychological research: examining and forecasting change

Science.gov (United States)

Jebb, Andrew T.; Tay, Louis; Wang, Wei; Huang, Qiming

2015-01-01

Psychological research has increasingly recognized the importance of integrating temporal dynamics into its theories, and innovations in longitudinal designs and analyses have allowed such theories to be formalized and tested. However, psychological researchers may be relatively unequipped to analyze such data, given its many characteristics and the general complexities involved in longitudinal modeling. The current paper introduces time series analysis to psychological research, an analytic domain that has been essential for understanding and predicting the behavior of variables across many diverse fields. First, the characteristics of time series data are discussed. Second, different time series modeling techniques are surveyed that can address various topics of interest to psychological researchers, including describing the pattern of change in a variable, modeling seasonal effects, assessing the immediate and long-term impact of a salient event, and forecasting future values. To illustrate these methods, an illustrative example based on online job search behavior is used throughout the paper, and a software tutorial in R for these analyses is provided in the Supplementary Materials. PMID:26106341

Optimal climate policy is a utopia. From quantitative to qualitative cost-benefit analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M.

2004-01-01

The dominance of quantitative cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and optimality concepts in the economic analysis of climate policy is criticised. Among others, it is argued to be based in a misplaced interpretation of policy for a complex climate-economy system as being analogous to individual inter-temporal welfare optimisation. The transfer of quantitative CBA and optimality concepts reflects an overly ambitious approach that does more harm than good. An alternative approach is to focus the attention on extreme events, structural change and complexity. It is argued that a qualitative rather than a quantitative CBA that takes account of these aspects can support the adoption of a minimax regret approach or precautionary principle in climate policy. This means: implement stringent GHG reduction policies as soon as possible

Phase correction and error estimation in InSAR time series analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Y.; Fattahi, H.; Amelung, F.

2017-12-01

During the last decade several InSAR time series approaches have been developed in response to the non-idea acquisition strategy of SAR satellites, such as large spatial and temporal baseline with non-regular acquisitions. The small baseline tubes and regular acquisitions of new SAR satellites such as Sentinel-1 allows us to form fully connected networks of interferograms and simplifies the time series analysis into a weighted least square inversion of an over-determined system. Such robust inversion allows us to focus more on the understanding of different components in InSAR time-series and its uncertainties. We present an open-source python-based package for InSAR time series analysis, called PySAR (https://yunjunz.github.io/PySAR/), with unique functionalities for obtaining unbiased ground displacement time-series, geometrical and atmospheric correction of InSAR data and quantifying the InSAR uncertainty. Our implemented strategy contains several features including: 1) improved spatial coverage using coherence-based network of interferograms, 2) unwrapping error correction using phase closure or bridging, 3) tropospheric delay correction using weather models and empirical approaches, 4) DEM error correction, 5) optimal selection of reference date and automatic outlier detection, 6) InSAR uncertainty due to the residual tropospheric delay, decorrelation and residual DEM error, and 7) variance-covariance matrix of final products for geodetic inversion. We demonstrate the performance using SAR datasets acquired by Cosmo-Skymed and TerraSAR-X, Sentinel-1 and ALOS/ALOS-2, with application on the highly non-linear volcanic deformation in Japan and Ecuador (figure 1). Our result shows precursory deformation before the 2015 eruptions of Cotopaxi volcano, with a maximum uplift of 3.4 cm on the western flank (fig. 1b), with a standard deviation of 0.9 cm (fig. 1a), supporting the finding by Morales-Rivera et al. (2017, GRL); and a post-eruptive subsidence on the same

Recurrence Density Enhanced Complex Networks for Nonlinear Time Series Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Costa, Diego G. De B.; Reis, Barbara M. Da F.; Zou, Yong; Quiles, Marcos G.; Macau, Elbert E. N.

We introduce a new method, which is entitled Recurrence Density Enhanced Complex Network (RDE-CN), to properly analyze nonlinear time series. Our method first transforms a recurrence plot into a figure of a reduced number of points yet preserving the main and fundamental recurrence properties of the original plot. This resulting figure is then reinterpreted as a complex network, which is further characterized by network statistical measures. We illustrate the computational power of RDE-CN approach by time series by both the logistic map and experimental fluid flows, which show that our method distinguishes different dynamics sufficiently well as the traditional recurrence analysis. Therefore, the proposed methodology characterizes the recurrence matrix adequately, while using a reduced set of points from the original recurrence plots.

A Recurrent Probabilistic Neural Network with Dimensionality Reduction Based on Time-series Discriminant Component Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hayashi, Hideaki; Shibanoki, Taro; Shima, Keisuke; Kurita, Yuichi; Tsuji, Toshio

2015-12-01

This paper proposes a probabilistic neural network (NN) developed on the basis of time-series discriminant component analysis (TSDCA) that can be used to classify high-dimensional time-series patterns. TSDCA involves the compression of high-dimensional time series into a lower dimensional space using a set of orthogonal transformations and the calculation of posterior probabilities based on a continuous-density hidden Markov model with a Gaussian mixture model expressed in the reduced-dimensional space. The analysis can be incorporated into an NN, which is named a time-series discriminant component network (TSDCN), so that parameters of dimensionality reduction and classification can be obtained simultaneously as network coefficients according to a backpropagation through time-based learning algorithm with the Lagrange multiplier method. The TSDCN is considered to enable high-accuracy classification of high-dimensional time-series patterns and to reduce the computation time taken for network training. The validity of the TSDCN is demonstrated for high-dimensional artificial data and electroencephalogram signals in the experiments conducted during the study.

The Design of Holistic Innovation Policy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Borrás, Susana; Edquist, Charles

looks into a series of issues related to the design of holistic innovation policy. With this purpose in mind, this chapter summarizes previous chapters’ identification of the problems, bottlenecks and deficiencies that can afflict innovation systems. Taken together, they provide the theoretical...... foundations for the design of holistic innovation policy, which includes not only framing the problems in the innovation system, but also considerations about policy instruments for the tasks at hand, as well as the problems generated by policy itself (unintended consequences of inefficient of incomplete...

Uncommon Commonalities: Cosmopolitan Ethics as a Framework for Music Education Policy Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Richerme, Lauren Kapalka

2016-01-01

Contemporary American education policy rhetoric is problematic because its authors' assertions, particularly those about the goals of education, frequently conflict with their implied moral and/or ethical commitments. This philosophical policy analysis uses Appiah's cosmopolitan principles to examine the ethical implications of current education…

Cost benefit analysis of two policy options for cannabis: status quo and legalisation.

Science.gov (United States)

Shanahan, Marian; Ritter, Alison

2014-01-01

To date there has been limited analysis of the economic costs and benefits associated with cannabis legalisation. This study redresses this gap. A cost benefit analysis of two cannabis policy options the status quo (where cannabis use is illegal) and a legalised-regulated option was conducted. A cost benefit analysis was used to value the costs and benefits of the two policies in monetary terms. Costs and benefits of each policy option were classified into five categories (direct intervention costs, costs or cost savings to other agencies, benefits or lost benefits to the individual or the family, other impacts on third parties, and adverse or spill over events). The results are expressed as a net social benefit (NSB). The mean NSB per annum from Monte Carlo simulations (with the 5 and 95 percentiles) for the status quo was $294.6 million AUD ($201.1 to $392.7 million) not substantially different from the $234.2 million AUD ($136.4 to $331.1 million) for the legalised-regulated model which excludes government revenue as a benefit. When government revenue is included, the NSB for legalised-regulated is higher than for status quo. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate the significant impact of educational attainment and wellbeing as drivers for the NSB result. Examining the percentiles around the two policy options, there appears to be no difference between the NSB for these two policy options. Economic analyses are essential for good public policy, providing information about the extent to which one policy is substantially economically favourable over another. In cannabis policy, for these two options this does not appear to be the case.

Cost benefit analysis of two policy options for cannabis: status quo and legalisation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marian Shanahan

Full Text Available AIMS: To date there has been limited analysis of the economic costs and benefits associated with cannabis legalisation. This study redresses this gap. A cost benefit analysis of two cannabis policy options the status quo (where cannabis use is illegal and a legalised-regulated option was conducted. METHOD: A cost benefit analysis was used to value the costs and benefits of the two policies in monetary terms. Costs and benefits of each policy option were classified into five categories (direct intervention costs, costs or cost savings to other agencies, benefits or lost benefits to the individual or the family, other impacts on third parties, and adverse or spill over events. The results are expressed as a net social benefit (NSB. FINDINGS: The mean NSB per annum from Monte Carlo simulations (with the 5 and 95 percentiles for the status quo was $294.6 million AUD ($201.1 to $392.7 million not substantially different from the $234.2 million AUD ($136.4 to $331.1 million for the legalised-regulated model which excludes government revenue as a benefit. When government revenue is included, the NSB for legalised-regulated is higher than for status quo. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate the significant impact of educational attainment and wellbeing as drivers for the NSB result. CONCLUSION: Examining the percentiles around the two policy options, there appears to be no difference between the NSB for these two policy options. Economic analyses are essential for good public policy, providing information about the extent to which one policy is substantially economically favourable over another. In cannabis policy, for these two options this does not appear to be the case.

Bioelectric signal classification using a recurrent probabilistic neural network with time-series discriminant component analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hayashi, Hideaki; Shima, Keisuke; Shibanoki, Taro; Kurita, Yuichi; Tsuji, Toshio

2013-01-01

This paper outlines a probabilistic neural network developed on the basis of time-series discriminant component analysis (TSDCA) that can be used to classify high-dimensional time-series patterns. TSDCA involves the compression of high-dimensional time series into a lower-dimensional space using a set of orthogonal transformations and the calculation of posterior probabilities based on a continuous-density hidden Markov model that incorporates a Gaussian mixture model expressed in the reduced-dimensional space. The analysis can be incorporated into a neural network so that parameters can be obtained appropriately as network coefficients according to backpropagation-through-time-based training algorithm. The network is considered to enable high-accuracy classification of high-dimensional time-series patterns and to reduce the computation time taken for network training. In the experiments conducted during the study, the validity of the proposed network was demonstrated for EEG signals.

A Policy Analysis of Public School Retirement Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Tara; Teeter, Matt

2010-01-01

The purpose of this policy analysis was to examine the Missouri Public School Retirement System (PSRS). The team investigated the under-funding of PSRS, relating to sustainability and the feasibility of the system's use of one lever, contribution rate, to stabilize the retirement system, and to meet actuary needs and governmental requirements. The…

Virtual Schools in the U.S. 2014: Politics, Performance, Policy, and Research Evidence

Science.gov (United States)

Huerta, Luis; Rice, Jennifer King; Shafer, Sheryl Rankin; Barbour, Michael K.; Miron, Gary; Gulosino, Charisse; Horvitz, Brian

2014-01-01

This report is the second of a series of annual reports by the National Education Policy Center (NEPC) on virtual education in the U.S. The NEPC reports contribute to the existing evidence and discourse on virtual education by providing an objective analysis of the evolution and performance of full-time, publicly funded K-12 virtual schools. This…

North Korea: Economic Leverage and Policy Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-22

although non- governmental groups do run operations in the DPRK in activities such as goat dairy farming and transportation. North -South Korean...Finance Minister Says “At Least” 34m US Dollars Sent to North Korea. Financial Times Information, Global News Wire—Asia Africa Intelligence Wire. June 6...CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress North Korea: Economic Leverage and Policy Analysis Dick K

Landscape Analysis of Nutrition-sensitive Agriculture Policy Development in Senegal.

Science.gov (United States)

Lachat, Carl; Nago, Eunice; Ka, Abdoulaye; Vermeylen, Harm; Fanzo, Jessica; Mahy, Lina; Wüstefeld, Marzella; Kolsteren, Patrick

2015-06-01

Unlocking the agricultural potential of Africa offers a genuine opportunity to address malnutrition and drive development of the continent. Using Senegal as a case study, to identify gaps and opportunities to strengthen agricultural policies with nutrition-sensitive approaches. We carried out a systematic analysis of 13 policy documents that related to food production, agriculture, food security, or nutrition. Next, we collected data during a participatory analysis with 32 national stakeholders and in-depth interviews with 15 national experts of technical directorates of the different ministries that deal with agriculture and food production. The current agricultural context has various elements that are considered to enhance its nutrition sensitivity. On average, 8.3 of the 17 Food and Agriculture Organization guiding principles for agriculture programming for nutrition were included in the policies reviewed. Ensuring food security and increasing dietary diversity were considered to be the principal objectives of agricultural policies. Although there was considerable agreement that agriculture can contribute to nutrition, current agricultural programs generally do not target communities on the basis of their nutritional vulnerability. Agricultural programs were reported to have specific components to target female beneficiaries but were generally not used as delivery platforms for nutritional interventions. The findings of this study indicate the need for a coherent policy environment across the food system that aligns recommendations at the national level with local action on the ground. In addition, specific activities are needed to develop a shared understanding of nutrition and public health nutrition within the agricultural community in Senegal. © The Author(s) 2015.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE Analysis of Ethiopia's National ICT Policy and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

as infrastructure, services, applications, universal access, cyber security, social media, and users. Broadband infrastructure development is ... other technologies it enables to transform organizations and redefine social relations. In essence, ... public policies and disciplines. First, document analysis was carried out to study.

Analysis of product efficiency of hybrid vehicles and promotion policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Hyundo; Oh, Inha

2010-01-01

The key aim of this study is to evaluate the product efficiency of current hybrid vehicles and suggest effective policies to promote hybrid vehicles in the Korean automobile market and development trends of hybrid vehicles. The efficiency levels for car models sold in Korea, including hybrid ones, were measured using the recently developed discrete additive data envelopment analysis (DEA) model that reflects consumer preference. The result of the analysis shows that current hybrid vehicles on the market are still at lower competitive advantage than traditional car models with conventional combustion engines and we can suggest a mix of incentive policies to promote the competitiveness of hybrid vehicles. In addition, we also identify two distinctive trends of hybrid vehicle development: environment-oriented hybrid vehicles and performance-oriented hybrid vehicles. It implies that the government should take account of development trends of hybrid vehicles to achieve the policy goals in designing support schemes and automobile companies that are willing to develop hybrid vehicles can also gain some insights for making strategic decisions. (author)

Extended local similarity analysis (eLSA) of microbial community and other time series data with replicates.

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Li C; Steele, Joshua A; Cram, Jacob A; Cardon, Zoe G; Simmons, Sheri L; Vallino, Joseph J; Fuhrman, Jed A; Sun, Fengzhu

2011-01-01

The increasing availability of time series microbial community data from metagenomics and other molecular biological studies has enabled the analysis of large-scale microbial co-occurrence and association networks. Among the many analytical techniques available, the Local Similarity Analysis (LSA) method is unique in that it captures local and potentially time-delayed co-occurrence and association patterns in time series data that cannot otherwise be identified by ordinary correlation analysis. However LSA, as originally developed, does not consider time series data with replicates, which hinders the full exploitation of available information. With replicates, it is possible to understand the variability of local similarity (LS) score and to obtain its confidence interval. We extended our LSA technique to time series data with replicates and termed it extended LSA, or eLSA. Simulations showed the capability of eLSA to capture subinterval and time-delayed associations. We implemented the eLSA technique into an easy-to-use analytic software package. The software pipeline integrates data normalization, statistical correlation calculation, statistical significance evaluation, and association network construction steps. We applied the eLSA technique to microbial community and gene expression datasets, where unique time-dependent associations were identified. The extended LSA analysis technique was demonstrated to reveal statistically significant local and potentially time-delayed association patterns in replicated time series data beyond that of ordinary correlation analysis. These statistically significant associations can provide insights to the real dynamics of biological systems. The newly designed eLSA software efficiently streamlines the analysis and is freely available from the eLSA homepage, which can be accessed at http://meta.usc.edu/softs/lsa.

Alcohol policy in a Russian region: a stakeholder analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Gil, Artyom; Polikina, Olga; Koroleva, Natalia; Leon, David A; McKee, Martin

2010-10-01

Male life expectancy in the Russian Federation, at 60 years, is the lowest in Europe. Several factors contribute to this situation, but hazardous consumption of alcohol is especially a key factor. We undertook a stakeholder analysis in a typical Russian region located on the western side of the Urals. Organizations with a stake in alcohol policy in the region were identified by snowball sampling and information on their position and influence on alcohol policy was elicited from interviews with key informants. Their interests and influence were mapped and their relationships plotted. Twenty-nine stakeholder organizations were identified and 43 interviews were conducted with their staff. The most influential actors were the Federal and regional governments, large beer producers and manufacturers of strong alcohols. However, the majority of organizations that might be expected to play a role in developing or implementing alcohol control policies were almost entirely disengaged and fragmented. No evidence was found of an existing or emerging multi-sectoral coalition for developing alcohol policy to improve health. Organizations that might be expected to contribute to tackling hazardous drinking had little understanding of what might be effective. While stakeholders with an interest in maintaining or increasing alcohol consumption are engaged and influential, those who might seek to reduce it either take a very narrow perspective or are disengaged from the policy agenda. There is a need to mobilize actors who might contribute to effective policies while challenging those who can block them.

Identification of human operator performance models utilizing time series analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Holden, F. M.; Shinners, S. M.

1973-01-01

The results of an effort performed by Sperry Systems Management Division for AMRL in applying time series analysis as a tool for modeling the human operator are presented. This technique is utilized for determining the variation of the human transfer function under various levels of stress. The human operator's model is determined based on actual input and output data from a tracking experiment.

The application of complex network time series analysis in turbulent heated jets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charakopoulos, A. K.; Karakasidis, T. E.; Liakopoulos, A.; Papanicolaou, P. N.

2014-01-01

In the present study, we applied the methodology of the complex network-based time series analysis to experimental temperature time series from a vertical turbulent heated jet. More specifically, we approach the hydrodynamic problem of discriminating time series corresponding to various regions relative to the jet axis, i.e., time series corresponding to regions that are close to the jet axis from time series originating at regions with a different dynamical regime based on the constructed network properties. Applying the transformation phase space method (k nearest neighbors) and also the visibility algorithm, we transformed time series into networks and evaluated the topological properties of the networks such as degree distribution, average path length, diameter, modularity, and clustering coefficient. The results show that the complex network approach allows distinguishing, identifying, and exploring in detail various dynamical regions of the jet flow, and associate it to the corresponding physical behavior. In addition, in order to reject the hypothesis that the studied networks originate from a stochastic process, we generated random network and we compared their statistical properties with that originating from the experimental data. As far as the efficiency of the two methods for network construction is concerned, we conclude that both methodologies lead to network properties that present almost the same qualitative behavior and allow us to reveal the underlying system dynamics

Environmental Pollution Control Policy-Making: An Analysis of Elite Perceptions and Preferences

Science.gov (United States)

Althoff, Phillip; Greig, William H.

1974-01-01

This article is based on an analysis of the perceptions and preferences of elite groups concerning environmental pollution control policy making. Results showed that although the groups agreed that present methods were inadequate, they were, nevertheless, unable to agree upon the nature of a future policy-making system. (MA)

A frame-critical policy analysis of Canada's response to the World Food Summit 1998-2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Mah, Catherine L; Hamill, Catherine; Rondeau, Krista; McIntyre, Lynn

2014-01-01

The 2012 visit to Canada of Olivier De Schutter, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food, led to a public rebuff by Canadian governmental officials. This paper adapts the frame-critical policy analysis of Schön and Rein (1994), to explore the rhetorical basis for this conflict. This examination is offered as an illustrative example of how food insecurity is framed as a public policy problem in a high-income nation and how this framing has changed over time. We analyze Canada's decade of sequential responses to the 1996 World Food Summit, spanning 1998-2008, in the form of Canada's Action Plan on Food Security, and its subsequent Progress Reports. We conducted a qualitative policy analysis, adapting the frame-critical approach first delineated by Schön and Rein (1994). This analysis uses a social constructionist approach to map out the relationships between tacit understanding of policy by particular actors, explicit rhetoric in the public domain, and action in this policy area over time. We identify three key ways in which competing rhetorical frames arise over time: frame shifts (e.g., a shift away from language highlighting the right to food and health); frame blending (e.g., discussion about poverty becomes obscured by complexity discourse); and within-frame incongruence (e.g., monitoring for health indicators that are unrelated to policy solutions). Together, these frames illustrate how the conflict embodied in the UN Special Rapporteur's visit has been deeply woven into the policy discourse on food insecurity in Canada over time. Frame-critical analysis is instructive for exposing and also predicting tensions that impede forward progress on difficult policy issues. Accordingly, such analyses may be helpful in not only dissecting how policy can become 'stuck' in the process of change but in active reframing towards new policy solutions.

Properties of Asymmetric Detrended Fluctuation Analysis in the time series of RR intervals

Science.gov (United States)

Piskorski, J.; Kosmider, M.; Mieszkowski, D.; Krauze, T.; Wykretowicz, A.; Guzik, P.

2018-02-01

Heart rate asymmetry is a phenomenon by which the accelerations and decelerations of heart rate behave differently, and this difference is consistent and unidirectional, i.e. in most of the analyzed recordings the inequalities have the same directions. So far, it has been established for variance and runs based types of descriptors of RR intervals time series. In this paper we apply the newly developed method of Asymmetric Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, which so far has mainly been used with economic time series, to the set of 420 stationary 30 min time series of RR intervals from young, healthy individuals aged between 20 and 40. This asymmetric approach introduces separate scaling exponents for rising and falling trends. We systematically study the presence of asymmetry in both global and local versions of this method. In this study global means "applying to the whole time series" and local means "applying to windows jumping along the recording". It is found that the correlation structure of the fluctuations left over after detrending in physiological time series shows strong asymmetric features in both magnitude, with α+ physiological data after shuffling or with a group of symmetric synthetic time series.

Analysis of higher education policy frameworks for open and distance education in Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Ellahi, Abida; Zaka, Bilal

2015-04-01

The constant rise in demand for higher education has become the biggest challenge for educational planners. This high demand has paved a way for distance education across the globe. This article innovatively analyzes the policy documentation of a major distance education initiative in Pakistan for validity that will identify the utility of policy linkages. The study adopted a qualitative research design that consisted of two steps. In the first step, a content analysis of distance learning policy framework was made. For this purpose, two documents were accessed titled "Framework for Launching Distance Learning Programs in HEIs of Pakistan" and "Guideline on Quality of Distance Education for External Students at the HEIs of Pakistan." In the second step, the policy guidelines mentioned in these two documents were evaluated at two levels. At the first level, the overall policy documents were assessed against a criterion proposed by Cheung, Mirzaei, and Leeder. At the second level, the proposed program of distance learning was assessed against a criterion set by Gellman-Danley and Fetzner and Berge. The distance education program initiative in Pakistan is of promising nature which needs to be assessed regularly. This study has made an initial attempt to assess the policy document against a criterion identified from literature. The analysis shows that the current policy documents do offer some strengths at this initial level, however, they cannot be considered a comprehensive policy guide. The inclusion or correction of missing or vague areas identified in this study would make this policy guideline document a treasured tool for Higher Education Commission (HEC). For distance education policy makers, this distance education policy framework model recognizes several fundamental areas with which they should be concerned. The findings of this study in the light of two different policy framework measures highlight certain opportunities that can help strengthening the

A Comparison of Missing-Data Procedures for Arima Time-Series Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Velicer, Wayne F.; Colby, Suzanne M.

2005-01-01

Missing data are a common practical problem for longitudinal designs. Time-series analysis is a longitudinal method that involves a large number of observations on a single unit. Four different missing-data methods (deletion, mean substitution, mean of adjacent observations, and maximum likelihood estimation) were evaluated. Computer-generated…

'Whistle-blowing' and the quandary of policy implementation in Nigeria

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Nigeria as a country has undergone series of economic policies and Programs to bring her economy back on track. These policies range from National Development Plan to the present day whistle-blowing policy. The whistle blowing policy was introduced by the administration of President Buhari in December, 2016, with a ...

Studying Policy Transfer through the Lens of Social Network Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Staunæs, Dorthe; Brøgger, Katja; Steiner-Khamsi, Gita

Studying Policy Transfer through the Lens of Social Network Analysis The panelists present the findings of a joint empirical research project carried out at Aarhus University (DPU/Copenhagen) and at Teachers College, Columbia University (New York). The research project succeeded to identify...... discursive networks of political stakeholders and policy advisors that were considered key actors in the Danish school reform. The research team investigated how these networks interrelate, change over time, and represent different constituents (government, academe, business), at times contradicting...... or collaborating with each other, respectively. Against the backdrop of globalization studies in comparative education, the research project attempted to identify borrowers, translators, and brokers of educational reform drawing on a complementary set of expertise from social network analysis methodology (Oren...

Central Asia in a Changing World: From a Peripheral Region to an Area of Policy Generation and Application. Actors, Policy and Security

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nora Sainz Gsell

2005-10-01

Full Text Available This work deals with Central Asia, beginning with an analysis of the characteristics of international insertion of the area as a whole and of the former Soviet republics that comprise it. In a general way, it aims to analyse the evolution of Central Asia from a peripheral region to an area that generates behaviours and receives the application of policies on the part ofinternational actors. In the first part of the study, it mentions a series of particularities of the republics that have determined the relationships in the region(the Central Asian order and those between the region and the outside world; it indicates geo-historical and economic-strategic aspects. In the second part, it examines the foreign policy of the republics in the post-Cold War era from the singularities of domestic policy. And, in the third part, it analyses, according to the aforementioned peculiarities, the policies that the area and each State has generated in international actors, both regional ones and global ones, and which have transformed the region from a peripheral one to a geopolitically emerging one.

Multi-complexity ensemble measures for gait time series analysis: application to diagnostics, monitoring and biometrics.

Science.gov (United States)

Gavrishchaka, Valeriy; Senyukova, Olga; Davis, Kristina

2015-01-01

Previously, we have proposed to use complementary complexity measures discovered by boosting-like ensemble learning for the enhancement of quantitative indicators dealing with necessarily short physiological time series. We have confirmed robustness of such multi-complexity measures for heart rate variability analysis with the emphasis on detection of emerging and intermittent cardiac abnormalities. Recently, we presented preliminary results suggesting that such ensemble-based approach could be also effective in discovering universal meta-indicators for early detection and convenient monitoring of neurological abnormalities using gait time series. Here, we argue and demonstrate that these multi-complexity ensemble measures for gait time series analysis could have significantly wider application scope ranging from diagnostics and early detection of physiological regime change to gait-based biometrics applications.

Environmental cost-effectiveness analysis in intertemporal natural resource policy: evaluation of selective fishing gear.

Science.gov (United States)

Kronbak, Lone Grønbæk; Vestergaard, Niels

2013-12-15

In most decision-making involving natural resources, the achievements of a given policy (e.g., improved ecosystem or biodiversity) are rather difficult to measure in monetary units. To address this problem, the current paper develops an environmental cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to include intangible benefits in intertemporal natural resource problems. This approach can assist managers in prioritizing management actions as least cost solutions to achieve quantitative policy targets. The ECEA framework is applied to a selective gear policy case in Danish mixed trawl fisheries in Kattegat and Skagerrak. The empirical analysis demonstrates how a policy with large negative net benefits might be justified if the intangible benefits are included. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Historical analysis of SO2 pollution control policies in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Cailing; Yin, Huaqiang; Ai, Nanshan; Huang, Zhengwen

2009-03-01

Coal is not only an important energy source in China but also a major source of air pollution. Because of this, China's national sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) emissions have been the highest in the world for many years, and since the 1990s, the territory of China's south and southwest has become the third largest acid-rain-prone region in the world. In order to control SO(2) emissions, the Chinese government has formulated and promulgated a series of policies and regulations, but it faces great difficulties in putting them into practice. In this retrospective look at the history of SO(2) control in China, we found that Chinese SO(2) control policies have become increasingly strict and rigid. We also found that the environmental policies and regulations are more effective when central officials consistently give environmental protection top priority. Achieving China's environmental goals, however, has been made difficult by China's economic growth. Part of this is due to the practice of environmental protection appearing in the form of an ideological "campaign" or "storm" that lacks effective economic measures. More recently, better enforcement of environmental laws and regulations has been achieved by adding environmental quality to the performance assessment metrics for leaders at all levels. To continue making advances, China needs to reinforce the economic and environmental assessments for pollution control projects and work harder to integrate economic measures into environmental protection. Nonetheless, China has a long way to go before economic growth and environmental protection are balanced.

Writing ourselves into a web of obedience: a nursing policy analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Bail, Kasia; Cook, Robert; Gardner, Anne; Grealish, Laurie

2009-11-01

Nursing work is governed by a web of overarching documents from professional bodies, registration bodies, and individual health care organisations. The focus for these documents is to maintain high standards and protect patients and organisations from unnecessary risk. The presentation of the nurse within these documents has important implications for the ability of nurses to function as autonomous professionals. How the role of the nurse is situated in hospital procedural policy, and more specifically how these presentations of the nurse define, limit, and enable nursing practice is the focus of this paper. A combination of random and purposive sampling of the nursing policies of one tertiary level hospital was utilised to collect policy documents for thematic content analysis. The study was completed in a tertiary level health institution, in one Australian jurisdiction with a population of approximately 500,000 people. This health institution employs over 4000 people and admitted 49,000 patients in the 2004-2005 financial year. An inductive approach, which utilised theoretical and contextual comprehension of the nursing policies, informed the collation of coded data which determined the themes of the study. Analysis consisted of coding of particular words, textual structure and theory content. Practice was presented in the nursing procedural policies in two themes, called 'lingering tradition' and 'bureaucratic template'. The discourse of hospital procedural policy situates the nurse as obedient to organisational requirements by limiting practice to a performance of actions without explicit recognition of professional autonomy. This sets up a puzzling contradiction between performance expectations from the employing organisation and the nursing profession. Writing hospital policy in the discourse of procedural directives reduces nurses' ability to act as autonomous, critically thinking professionals, with implications for patient safety, nurse autonomy and the

The "common sense" of the nonprofit hospital tax exemption: a policy analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanders, S M

1995-01-01

Although rarely discussed prior to the 1985 Utah Supreme Court ruling against Intermountain Health Care Inc., the question of whether to grant tax exemptions to nonprofit hospitals is currently being debated by federal, state, and local legislators, and by the courts. Changes to current policy seem likely. This policy analysis: (1) presents the historical and legal background; (2) examines the economic, political, and organizational implications of current tax-exemption policy; and (3) offers three alternatives to this current policy. The analysis indicates that the current policy provides little incentive for nonprofit hospitals to make contributions of charity care. Of the alternatives, eliminating the exemption is not politically feasible at this time; regulating hospital operations and outputs portends an implementation nightmare; and tying tax subsidy levels to output levels of charity care--perhaps the strongest and most efficient incentive--would require an unlikely political consensus on what constitute valid and reliable measures of charity care. If there is a movement toward subsidies, then linking subsidy amounts to levels of charity care will depend on whether policy analysts can design satisfactory empirical measures. With the advent of universal health coverage, the demand for charity care will decrease. The problem for tax-exempt hospitals will then become justifying the exemption by demonstrating the extent to which they generate community benefits at no or reduced cost to society.

Can conditional health policies be justified? A policy analysis of the new NHS dental contract reforms.

Science.gov (United States)

Laverty, Louise; Harris, Rebecca

2018-06-01

Conditional policies, which emphasise personal responsibility, are becoming increasingly common in healthcare. Although used widely internationally, they are relatively new within the UK health system where there have been concerns about whether they can be justified. New NHS dental contracts include the introduction of a conditional component that restricts certain patients from accessing a full range of treatment until they have complied with preventative action. A policy analysis of published documents on the NHS dental contract reforms from 2009 to 2016 was conducted to consider how conditionality is justified and whether its execution is likely to cause distributional effects. Contractualist, paternalistic and mutualist arguments that reflect notions of responsibility and obligation are used as justification within policy. Underlying these arguments is an emphasis on preserving the finite resources of a strained NHS. We argue that the proposed conditional component may differentially affect disadvantaged patients, who do not necessarily have access to the resources needed to meet the behavioural requirements. As such, the conditional component of the NHS dental contract reform has the potential to exacerbate oral health inequalities. Conditional health policies may challenge core NHS principles and, as is the case with any conditional policy, should be carefully considered to ensure they do not exacerbate health inequities. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Systematic Analysis and Innovation for Development Policies of Beijing Seed Industry at Transformation Stage

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Qing LIU; Fengjun LU; Guozhi ZHANG; Lijiao XIE

2015-01-01

At transformation stage,seed Industry is not only a fundamental and strategic industry during the construction of World City,but also part of urban and modern agriculture in Beijing. Based on the analysis of the theory of industrial economics and system theory,the article constructs the seed industry policy analysis model,systematically analyzes the support points of national level and the city of Beijing seed industry policy,and studies policy input,mechanism,output and effects by way of systematic analysis,as well as proposes polices and suggestions on promotion of development for Beijing seed industry and on construction of new seed industry from talent incentive,platform construction,seed trading and enterprise cultivation.

Study on measuring analysis for estimating effect of energy saving policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Joong Ku; Park, Jeong Soon [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

1999-12-01

Since the study on measuring analysis for estimating effect of energy saving policy is too broad to implement all industries, so it limited its study only on manufacturing industry. This study is concentrated on its effort to measure energy saving using energy saving model by putting energy saving policy as an input and regarding its result as energy saving. It used B/C theory for positive analysis methodology and the result of analysis is investment effect on manufacturing industry. The total cost invested on manufacturing sector from 1982 to 1996 was 5,871 billion won based on constant cost in 1990, and the energy saving cost directly acquired from it reached 1,534.5 billion won based on constant cost in 1990, so B/C rate reached 2.56. Particularly, if you separated the amount supported by the government policy, energy saving support cost reached 3,904.2 billion won (based on constant cost in 1990) and the total benefit was 10,146.4 billion won (based on constant cost in 1990) by adding saving cost 9,997.9 billion won and environmental improvement effect 223.2 billion won. (author). 51 refs., 17 figs., 35 tabs.

The Policy Formation Process: A Conceptual Framework for Analysis. Ph.D. Thesis

Science.gov (United States)

Fuchs, E. F.

1972-01-01

A conceptual framework for analysis which is intended to assist both the policy analyst and the policy researcher in their empirical investigations into policy phenomena is developed. It is meant to facilitate understanding of the policy formation process by focusing attention on the basic forces shaping the main features of policy formation as a dynamic social-political-organizational process. The primary contribution of the framework lies in its capability to suggest useful ways of looking at policy formation reality. It provides the analyst and the researcher with a group of indicators which suggest where to look and what to look for when attempting to analyze and understand the mix of forces which energize, maintain, and direct the operation of strategic level policy systems. The framework also highlights interconnections, linkage, and relational patterns between and among important variables. The framework offers an integrated set of conceptual tools which facilitate understanding of and research on the complex and dynamic set of variables which interact in any major strategic level policy formation process.

Analysis of Land Subsidence Monitoring in Mining Area with Time-Series Insar Technology

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, N.; Wang, Y. J.

2018-04-01

Time-series InSAR technology has become a popular land subsidence monitoring method in recent years, because of its advantages such as high accuracy, wide area, low expenditure, intensive monitoring points and free from accessibility restrictions. In this paper, we applied two kinds of satellite data, ALOS PALSAR and RADARSAT-2, to get the subsidence monitoring results of the study area in two time periods by time-series InSAR technology. By analyzing the deformation range, rate and amount, the time-series analysis of land subsidence in mining area was realized. The results show that InSAR technology could be used to monitor land subsidence in large area and meet the demand of subsidence monitoring in mining area.

Campus Sustainability Governance in Canada: A Content Analysis of Post-Secondary Institutions' Sustainability Policies

Science.gov (United States)

Vaughter, Philip; McKenzie, Marcia; Lidstone, Lauri; Wright, Tarah

2016-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims to provide an overview of a content analysis of sustainability policies from Canadian post-secondary education institutions. The paper reports findings on the orientations to sustainability evident in the policies; references to other policies within the documents; and other key themes on how sustainability is engaged in…

A game theory analysis of green infrastructure stormwater management policies

Science.gov (United States)

William, Reshmina; Garg, Jugal; Stillwell, Ashlynn S.

2017-09-01

Green stormwater infrastructure has been demonstrated as an innovative water resources management approach that addresses multiple challenges facing urban environments. However, there is little consensus on what policy strategies can be used to best incentivize green infrastructure adoption by private landowners. Game theory, an analysis framework that has historically been under-utilized within the context of stormwater management, is uniquely suited to address this policy question. We used a cooperative game theory framework to investigate the potential impacts of different policy strategies used to incentivize green infrastructure installation. The results indicate that municipal regulation leads to the greatest reduction in pollutant loading. However, the choice of the "best" regulatory approach will depend on a variety of different factors including politics and financial considerations. Large, downstream agents have a disproportionate share of bargaining power. Results also reveal that policy impacts are highly dependent on agents' spatial position within the stormwater network, leading to important questions of social equity and environmental justice.

The history of NATO TNF policy: The role of studies, analysis and exercises conference proceedings. Volume 3: Papers by Gen. Robert C. Richardson III (Ret.)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rinne, R.L. [ed.

1994-02-01

This conference was organized to study and analyze the role of simulation, analysis, modeling, and exercises in the history of NATO policy. The premise was not that the results of past studies will apply to future policy, but rather that understanding what influenced the decision process-and how-would be of value. The structure of the conference was built around discussion panels. The panels were augmented by a series of papers and presentations focusing on particular TNF events, issues, studies, or exercises. The conference proceedings consist of three volumes. Volume 1 contains the conference introduction, agenda, biographical sketches of principal participants, and analytical summary of the presentations and discussion panels. Volume 2 contains a short introduction and the papers and presentations from the conference. This volume contains selected papers by Brig. Gen. Robert C. Richardson III (Ret.).

The Impact of the Introduction of Web Information Systems (WIS) on Information Policies: An Analysis of the Canadian Federal Government Policies Related to WIS.

Science.gov (United States)

Dufour, Christine; Bergeron, Pierette

2002-01-01

Presents results of an analysis of the Canadian federal government information policies that govern its Web information systems (WIS) that was conducted to better understand how the government has adapted its information policies to the WIS. Discusses results that indicate new policies have been crafted to take into account the WIS context.…

The formation of ‘policy truths’: Foucault and social policy discourse

OpenAIRE

Pickerden, Alex; Evans, Donna; Piggott, David

2015-01-01

Discuss current approaches to policy analysis Illustrate an alternative method for policy analysis influenced by the theoretical concepts of Michel Foucault Briefly analyse current research which has focused upon education policy and education reform in the United Kingdom (UK) Introduce the concept of ‘policy truths’ and explain how this idea can aid in the critique of neoliberal policies and neoliberal governmentality

A structural dynamic factor model for the effects of monetary policy estimated by the EM algorithm

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bork, Lasse

This paper applies the maximum likelihood based EM algorithm to a large-dimensional factor analysis of US monetary policy. Specifically, economy-wide effects of shocks to the US federal funds rate are estimated in a structural dynamic factor model in which 100+ US macroeconomic and financial time...... series are driven by the joint dynamics of the federal funds rate and a few correlated dynamic factors. This paper contains a number of methodological contributions to the existing literature on data-rich monetary policy analysis. Firstly, the identification scheme allows for correlated factor dynamics...... as opposed to the orthogonal factors resulting from the popular principal component approach to structural factor models. Correlated factors are economically more sensible and important for a richer monetary policy transmission mechanism. Secondly, I consider both static factor loadings as well as dynamic...

Definition of distance for nonlinear time series analysis of marked point process data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Iwayama, Koji, E-mail: koji@sat.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Research Institute for Food and Agriculture, Ryukoku Univeristy, 1-5 Yokotani, Seta Oe-cho, Otsu-Shi, Shiga 520-2194 (Japan); Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki [Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8505 (Japan)

2017-01-30

Marked point process data are time series of discrete events accompanied with some values, such as economic trades, earthquakes, and lightnings. A distance for marked point process data allows us to apply nonlinear time series analysis to such data. We propose a distance for marked point process data which can be calculated much faster than the existing distance when the number of marks is small. Furthermore, under some assumptions, the Kullback–Leibler divergences between posterior distributions for neighbors defined by this distance are small. We performed some numerical simulations showing that analysis based on the proposed distance is effective. - Highlights: • A new distance for marked point process data is proposed. • The distance can be computed fast enough for a small number of marks. • The method to optimize parameter values of the distance is also proposed. • Numerical simulations indicate that the analysis based on the distance is effective.

Gender Mainstreaming and Work-Family Reconciliation. An Analysis of Family Policies in Romania and Germany

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oana Crușmac

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Gender Mainstreaming (GM was introduced by the European Union (EU in 1997, as a strategy to achieve gender equality in all policy areas. Yet, European countries greatly diverge in their progress of implementation. We investigate the role GM played in Romanian and German policies aimed at achieving work-family reconciliation, using concepts from feminist policy analysis. Our analysis shows that pre-existing policies and discourse, the economic situation, as well as the relationship with the EU have shaped and impeded the implementation process of GM in both countries. While Germany slowly moves towards more egalitarian policies, GM as label and strategy did not succeed. In Romania, GM has only impacted work and family reconciliation indirectly through EU legislation.

On the Use of Running Trends as Summary Statistics for Univariate Time Series and Time Series Association

OpenAIRE

Trottini, Mario; Vigo, Isabel; Belda, Santiago

2015-01-01

Given a time series, running trends analysis (RTA) involves evaluating least squares trends over overlapping time windows of L consecutive time points, with overlap by all but one observation. This produces a new series called the “running trends series,” which is used as summary statistics of the original series for further analysis. In recent years, RTA has been widely used in climate applied research as summary statistics for time series and time series association. There is no doubt that ...

CROSAT: A digital computer program for statistical-spectral analysis of two discrete time series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antonopoulos Domis, M.

1978-03-01

The program CROSAT computes directly from two discrete time series auto- and cross-spectra, transfer and coherence functions, using a Fast Fourier Transform subroutine. Statistical analysis of the time series is optional. While of general use the program is constructed to be immediately compatible with the ICL 4-70 and H316 computers at AEE Winfrith, and perhaps with minor modifications, with any other hardware system. (author)

Application of Time Series Analysis in Determination of Lag Time in Jahanbin Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seied Yahya Mirzaee

2005-11-01

    One of the important issues that have significant role in study of hydrology of basin is determination of lag time. Lag time has significant role in hydrological studies. Quantity of rainfall related lag time depends on several factors, such as permeability, vegetation cover, catchments slope, rainfall intensity, storm duration and type of rain. Determination of lag time is important parameter in many projects such as dam design and also water resource studies. Lag time of basin could be calculated using various methods. One of these methods is time series analysis of spectral density. The analysis is based on fouries series. The time series is approximated with Sinuous and Cosines functions. In this method harmonically significant quantities with individual frequencies are presented. Spectral density under multiple time series could be used to obtain basin lag time for annual runoff and short-term rainfall fluctuation. A long lag time could be due to snowmelt as well as melting ice due to rainfalls in freezing days. In this research the lag time of Jahanbin basin has been determined using spectral density method. The catchments is subjected to both rainfall and snowfall. For short term rainfall fluctuation with a return period  2, 3, 4 months, the lag times were found 0.18, 0.5 and 0.083 month, respectively.

Comparative analysis of aging policy reforms in Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, and Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Calvo, Esteban; Berho, Maureen; Roqué, Mónica; Amaro, Juan Sebastián; Morales, Fernando; Rivera, Emiliana; Gutiérrez Robledo, Luis Miguel F; López, Elizabeth Caro; Canals, Bernardita; Kornfeld, Rosa

2018-04-16

This investigation uses case studies and comparative analysis to review and analyze aging policy in Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, and Mexico, and uncovers similarities and relevant trends in the substance of historical and current aging policy across countries. Initial charity-based approaches to poverty and illness have been gradually replaced by a rights-based approach considering broader notions of well-being, and recent reforms emphasize the need for national, intersectoral, evidence-based policy. The results of this study have implications for understanding aging policy in Latin America from a welfare regime and policymakers' perspective, identifying priorities for intervention, and informing policy reforms in developing countries worldwide.

Social Analysis in Development Interventions: Policy Artefact or Constructive Transformation?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SUSANNA PRICE

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Recently attention has focused on the role of social researchers in the processes of construction and transmission of knowledge about global poverty and its reduction. This paper examines some of the formative efforts by pioneering social researchers in development institutions to step into the realm of policy making to construct processes for project preparation and management through social analysis. Before 1970 development planners invoked ‘social' or ‘human' factors only as an excuse to explain away project failures - they designed and implemented development projects in the absence of any strategies or regulatory frameworks for managing their social impacts. Recognizing that project investments represent induced change and constitute a social process in themselves, pioneering social researchers constructed policies and procedures to introduce sociological content and method into the project cycle and so re-order social outcomes. Were such constructs merely policy artefacts? Even as the constructs helped to shift the statements of the development discourse towards ‘people oriented' poverty reduction, new modalities appeared which tested the limits of the agreed methods. Institutions may forget, neglect, contest or re-write the documents if in perceived conflict with the institutional ‘core business'. Yet those pioneering efforts created institutional space for, and understanding of, social analysis, with a measure of flow-on international recognition. Tracking social analysis in several international institutions and in a significant emerging economy, China, this paper highlights not only a history full of lessons to be learned where social analysis is not practiced systematically but also outlines some future challenges.

The Analysis Of Personality Disorder On Two Characters In The Animation Series Black Rock Shooter

OpenAIRE

Ramadhana, Rizki Andrian

2015-01-01

The title of this thesis is The Analysis of Personality Disorder on Two Characters in the Animation Series “Black Rock Shooter” which discusses about the personality disorder of two characters from this series; they are Kagari Izuriha and Yomi Takanashi. The animation series Black Rock Shooter is chosen as the source of data because this animation has psychological genre and represents the complexity of human relationship, especially when build up a friendship. It is because human is a social...

Investigation of interfacial wave structure using time-series analysis techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jayanti, S.; Hewitt, G.F.; Cliffe, K.A.

1990-09-01

The report presents an investigation into the interfacial structure in horizontal annular flow using spectral and time-series analysis techniques. Film thickness measured using conductance probes shows an interesting transition in wave pattern from a continuous low-frequency wave pattern to an intermittent, high-frequency one. From the autospectral density function of the film thickness, it appears that this transition is caused by the breaking up of long waves into smaller ones. To investigate the possibility of the wave structure being represented as a low order chaotic system, phase portraits of the time series were constructed using the technique developed by Broomhead and co-workers (1986, 1987 and 1989). These showed a banded structure when waves of relatively high frequency were filtered out. Although these results are encouraging, further work is needed to characterise the attractor. (Author)

The role of social norms on preferences towards climate change policies: A meta-analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alló, Maria; Loureiro, Maria L.

2014-01-01

The present study provides a review of existing assessments of preferences for climate change mitigation and adaptation policies through a worldwide meta-analysis. In this study, we analyze the impact of social values and norms on preferences towards climate change adaptation and mitigation policies. In a sample of 58 international studies, we found that mitigation actions were preferred over adaptation actions, and that preferences towards climate change policies are affected by attitudes towards time and social norms. In particular, societies with a long-term orientation display greater support towards climate change policies. These results therefore reveal the role of social factors as being crucial in order to understand the acceptability of climate change policies at a worldwide level. - highlights: • Effective policy design is required in order to curb climate change. • Using a meta-analysis, we find that mitigation actions are preferred over adaptation actions. • Economic conditions play a crucial role for supporting efforts to combat climate change. • Cultural and social dimensions are relevant for the acceptability of climate policies. • Understanding social norms and cultural variables may help with the climate change debate

Multiculturalism as an Educational Policy. ESA 842, Policy Development and Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rizvi, Fazal

The monograph that begins this volume analyzes multiculturalism as an educational policy in order to identify the broader values and interests that are served by its promotion. It begins with a historical review of Australia's post-World-War-II immigration policies. In the next two sections, the major elements of the policy of assimilation, a…

Analysis of the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on China's stock market in different periods-Based on time series network model

Science.gov (United States)

An, Yang; Sun, Mei; Gao, Cuixia; Han, Dun; Li, Xiuming

2018-02-01

This paper studies the influence of Brent oil price fluctuations on the stock prices of China's two distinct blocks, namely, the petrochemical block and the electric equipment and new energy block, applying the Shannon entropy of information theory. The co-movement trend of crude oil price and stock prices is divided into different fluctuation patterns with the coarse-graining method. Then, the bivariate time series network model is established for the two blocks stock in five different periods. By joint analysis of the network-oriented metrics, the key modes and underlying evolutionary mechanisms were identified. The results show that the both networks have different fluctuation characteristics in different periods. Their co-movement patterns are clustered in some key modes and conversion intermediaries. The study not only reveals the lag effect of crude oil price fluctuations on the stock in Chinese industry blocks but also verifies the necessity of research on special periods, and suggests that the government should use different energy policies to stabilize market volatility in different periods. A new way is provided to study the unidirectional influence between multiple variables or complex time series.

Detrended partial cross-correlation analysis of two nonstationary time series influenced by common external forces

Science.gov (United States)

Qian, Xi-Yuan; Liu, Ya-Min; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Podobnik, Boris; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Stanley, H. Eugene

2015-06-01

When common factors strongly influence two power-law cross-correlated time series recorded in complex natural or social systems, using detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) without considering these common factors will bias the results. We use detrended partial cross-correlation analysis (DPXA) to uncover the intrinsic power-law cross correlations between two simultaneously recorded time series in the presence of nonstationarity after removing the effects of other time series acting as common forces. The DPXA method is a generalization of the detrended cross-correlation analysis that takes into account partial correlation analysis. We demonstrate the method by using bivariate fractional Brownian motions contaminated with a fractional Brownian motion. We find that the DPXA is able to recover the analytical cross Hurst indices, and thus the multiscale DPXA coefficients are a viable alternative to the conventional cross-correlation coefficient. We demonstrate the advantage of the DPXA coefficients over the DCCA coefficients by analyzing contaminated bivariate fractional Brownian motions. We calculate the DPXA coefficients and use them to extract the intrinsic cross correlation between crude oil and gold futures by taking into consideration the impact of the U.S. dollar index. We develop the multifractal DPXA (MF-DPXA) method in order to generalize the DPXA method and investigate multifractal time series. We analyze multifractal binomial measures masked with strong white noises and find that the MF-DPXA method quantifies the hidden multifractal nature while the multifractal DCCA method fails.

Modeling the impact of forecast-based regime switches on macroeconomic time series

NARCIS (Netherlands)

K. Bel (Koen); R. Paap (Richard)

2013-01-01

textabstractForecasts of key macroeconomic variables may lead to policy changes of governments, central banks and other economic agents. Policy changes in turn lead to structural changes in macroeconomic time series models. To describe this phenomenon we introduce a logistic smooth transition

Evaluating the impact of abrupt changes in forest policy and management practices on landscape dynamics: analysis of a Landsat image time series in the Atlantic Northern Forest.

Science.gov (United States)

Legaard, Kasey R; Sader, Steven A; Simons-Legaard, Erin M

2015-01-01

Sustainable forest management is based on functional relationships between management actions, landscape conditions, and forest values. Changes in management practices make it fundamentally more difficult to study these relationships because the impacts of current practices are difficult to disentangle from the persistent influences of past practices. Within the Atlantic Northern Forest of Maine, U.S.A., forest policy and management practices changed abruptly in the early 1990s. During the 1970s-1980s, a severe insect outbreak stimulated salvage clearcutting of large contiguous tracts of spruce-fir forest. Following clearcut regulation in 1991, management practices shifted abruptly to near complete dependence on partial harvesting. Using a time series of Landsat satellite imagery (1973-2010) we assessed cumulative landscape change caused by these very different management regimes. We modeled predominant temporal patterns of harvesting and segmented a large study area into groups of landscape units with similar harvest histories. Time series of landscape composition and configuration metrics averaged within groups revealed differences in landscape dynamics caused by differences in management history. In some groups (24% of landscape units), salvage caused rapid loss and subdivision of intact mature forest. Persistent landscape change was created by large salvage clearcuts (often averaging > 100 ha) and conversion of spruce-fir to deciduous and mixed forest. In groups that were little affected by salvage (56% of landscape units), contemporary partial harvesting caused loss and subdivision of intact mature forest at even greater rates. Patch shape complexity and edge density reached high levels even where cumulative harvest area was relatively low. Contemporary practices introduced more numerous and much smaller patches of stand-replacing disturbance (typically averaging forest ecology.

Responding to Self-Harm: A Documentary Analysis of Agency Policy and Procedure

Science.gov (United States)

Paul, Sally; Hill, Malcolm

2013-01-01

This paper reports on the findings of a documentary analysis of policies and procedures relating to self-harm from a range of organisations working with young people in the UK. It identifies the extent to which policies and/or procedures relating to self-harm are available for service providers and offers a wider understanding of the concepts of…

Network structure of multivariate time series.

Science.gov (United States)

Lacasa, Lucas; Nicosia, Vincenzo; Latora, Vito

2015-10-21

Our understanding of a variety of phenomena in physics, biology and economics crucially depends on the analysis of multivariate time series. While a wide range tools and techniques for time series analysis already exist, the increasing availability of massive data structures calls for new approaches for multidimensional signal processing. We present here a non-parametric method to analyse multivariate time series, based on the mapping of a multidimensional time series into a multilayer network, which allows to extract information on a high dimensional dynamical system through the analysis of the structure of the associated multiplex network. The method is simple to implement, general, scalable, does not require ad hoc phase space partitioning, and is thus suitable for the analysis of large, heterogeneous and non-stationary time series. We show that simple structural descriptors of the associated multiplex networks allow to extract and quantify nontrivial properties of coupled chaotic maps, including the transition between different dynamical phases and the onset of various types of synchronization. As a concrete example we then study financial time series, showing that a multiplex network analysis can efficiently discriminate crises from periods of financial stability, where standard methods based on time-series symbolization often fail.

Segmented regression analysis of interrupted time series data to assess outcomes of a South American road traffic alcohol policy change.

Science.gov (United States)

Nistal-Nuño, Beatriz

2017-09-01

In Chile, a new law introduced in March 2012 decreased the legal blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limit for driving while impaired from 1 to 0.8 g/l and the legal BAC limit for driving under the influence of alcohol from 0.5 to 0.3 g/l. The goal is to assess the impact of this new law on mortality and morbidity outcomes in Chile. A review of national databases in Chile was conducted from January 2003 to December 2014. Segmented regression analysis of interrupted time series was used for analyzing the data. In a series of multivariable linear regression models, the change in intercept and slope in the monthly incidence rate of traffic deaths and injuries and association with alcohol per 100,000 inhabitants was estimated from pre-intervention to postintervention, while controlling for secular changes. In nested regression models, potential confounding seasonal effects were accounted for. All analyses were performed at a two-sided significance level of 0.05. Immediate level drops in all the monthly rates were observed after the law from the end of the prelaw period in the majority of models and in all the de-seasonalized models, although statistical significance was reached only in the model for injures related to alcohol. After the law, the estimated monthly rate dropped abruptly by -0.869 for injuries related to alcohol and by -0.859 adjusting for seasonality (P < 0.001). Regarding the postlaw long-term trends, it was evidenced a steeper decreasing trend after the law in the models for deaths related to alcohol, although these differences were not statistically significant. A strong evidence of a reduction in traffic injuries related to alcohol was found following the law in Chile. Although insufficient evidence was found of a statistically significant effect for the beneficial effects seen on deaths and overall injuries, potential clinically important effects cannot be ruled out. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd

Colombia's space policy: An analysis of six years of progress and challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Becerra, Jairo

2014-07-01

This paper analyzes Colombia's space policy: its successes, its failures and what it still needs to achieve. The paper examines the interaction among the different players, and how this policy contributes to economic and social development of the country. And postulates that, unless a real national plan of action, with specific milestones and budget as well as a managing agency are developed, this policy may be in danger of disappearing. The Colombian Space Commission (Comisión Colombiana del Espacio, or CCE) was created by Presidential Decree 2442 in 2006. It is a multi-sectorial entity, in charge of coordinating, planning, and leading in the implementation of national policies for the development and application of space technologies. The CCE was also charged with the drafting of plans and programs in this field. The CCE began with only a few members (15) and today is comprised of 47 members: 13 ministries, 4 administrative departments, another 21 governmental entities and 9 universities, the latter acting as consultants. The Vice-President of the Republic is the President of the CCE. These different actors gave great importance to the development of Colombia's space sector, and 6 years later, they are continuing support and development the country's space policy. This analysis takes into account three aspects: first, achieving the objectives of the CCE: the creation and development of a national space policy for Colombia; secondly, focussing on “target groups” and “end users”; and thirdly, the “outcomes” or achievements to date. Some conclusions are worth highlighting: first, the warm reception and support of the CCE by both the public and private sectors on high levels, but the poor knowledge of the national space policy by the Colombian people and the small and medium companies. Secondly, in the context of public policy [9], the strategic plan called “National Policy in regard to Space Activities”, is caught between two phases: the formulation

Time series analysis of soil Radon-222 recorded at Kutch region, Gujarat, India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Madhusudan Rao, K.; Rastogi, B.K.; Barman, Chiranjib; Chaudhuri, Hirok

2013-01-01

Kutch region in Gujarat lies in a seismic vulnerable zone (seismic zone-v). After the devastating Bhuj earthquake (7.7M) of January 26, 2001 in the Kutch region several researcher focused their attention to monitor geophysical and geochemical precursors for earthquakes in the region. In order to find out the possible geochemical precursory signals for earthquake events, we monitored radioactive gas radon-222 in sub surface soil gas at Kutch region. We have analysed the recorded soil radon-222 time series by means of nonlinear techniques such as FFT power spectral analysis, empirical mode decomposition, multi-fractal analysis along with other linear statistical methods. Some fascinating and fruitful results originated out the nonlinear analysis of the said time series have been discussed in the present paper. The entire analytical method aided us to recognize the nature and pattern of soil radon-222 emanation process. Moreover the recording and statistical and non-linear analysis of soil radon data at Kutch region will assist us to understand the preparation phase of an imminent seismic event in the region. (author)

Decarbonization of the U.S. electricity sector: Are state energy policy portfolios the solution?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carley, Sanya

2011-01-01

State governments have taken the lead on U.S. energy and climate policy. It is not yet clear, however, whether state energy policy portfolios can generate results in a similar magnitude or manner to their presumed carbon mitigation potential. This article seeks to address this lack of policy evidence and contribute empirical insights on the carbon mitigation effects of state energy portfolios within the U.S. electricity sector. Using a dynamic, long-term electricity dispatch model with U.S. power plant, utility, and transmission and distribution data between 2010 and 2030, this analysis builds a series of state-level policy portfolio scenarios and performs a comparative scenario analysis. Results reveal that state policy portfolios have modest to minimal carbon mitigation effects in the long run if surrounding states do not adopt similar portfolios as well. The difference in decarbonization potential between isolated state policies and larger, more coordinated policy efforts is due in large part to carbon leakage, which is the export of carbon intensive fossil fuel-based electricity across state lines. Results also confirm that a carbon price of $50/metric ton CO 2 e can generate substantial carbon savings. Although both policy options - an energy policy portfolio or a carbon price - are effective at reducing carbon emissions in the present analysis, neither is as effective alone as when the two strategies are combined. - Research highlights: → Scenario modeling exercise to assess effectiveness of state energy policy portfolios. → Regional coordination has greater decarbonization potential than state policies. → Some states benefit more from regional policy coordination than others. → Emissions leakage attenuates the effect of isolated state policy portfolios. → Carbon price with coordinated energy portfolio has greatest decarbonization potential.

Impact Of Monetary Policy On Financial Asset Returns: An Analysis ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Impact Of Monetary Policy On Financial Asset Returns: An Analysis Of Selected Stocks From The Nigerian Capital Market. ... Journal of Research in National Development. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current ...

The International Impact of US Unconventional Monetary Policy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lutz, Chandler

2015-01-01

Using a structural factor-augmented vector autoregression model and a large data set of daily time series, we study the impact of US unconventional monetary policy on British and German financial markets. Our findings indicate that a surprise US unconventional monetary policy easing leads...

On the Impact of a Quadratic Acceleration Term in the Analysis of Position Time Series

Science.gov (United States)

Bogusz, Janusz; Klos, Anna; Bos, Machiel Simon; Hunegnaw, Addisu; Teferle, Felix Norman

2016-04-01

The analysis of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time series generally assumes that each of the coordinate component series is described by the sum of a linear rate (velocity) and various periodic terms. The residuals, the deviations between the fitted model and the observations, are then a measure of the epoch-to-epoch scatter and have been used for the analysis of the stochastic character (noise) of the time series. Often the parameters of interest in GNSS position time series are the velocities and their associated uncertainties, which have to be determined with the highest reliability. It is clear that not all GNSS position time series follow this simple linear behaviour. Therefore, we have added an acceleration term in the form of a quadratic polynomial function to the model in order to better describe the non-linear motion in the position time series. This non-linear motion could be a response to purely geophysical processes, for example, elastic rebound of the Earth's crust due to ice mass loss in Greenland, artefacts due to deficiencies in bias mitigation models, for example, of the GNSS satellite and receiver antenna phase centres, or any combination thereof. In this study we have simulated 20 time series with different stochastic characteristics such as white, flicker or random walk noise of length of 23 years. The noise amplitude was assumed at 1 mm/y-/4. Then, we added the deterministic part consisting of a linear trend of 20 mm/y (that represents the averaged horizontal velocity) and accelerations ranging from minus 0.6 to plus 0.6 mm/y2. For all these data we estimated the noise parameters with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) using the Hector software package without taken into account the non-linear term. In this way we set the benchmark to then investigate how the noise properties and velocity uncertainty may be affected by any un-modelled, non-linear term. The velocities and their uncertainties versus the accelerations for

Critical Discourse Analysis from Public Policy of Sexual Diversity in Chile

OpenAIRE

Echeverría, Genoveva; Universidad Academia de Humanismo Cristiano; Maturana, José Martín; Universidad Academia de Humanismo Cristiano

2016-01-01

This research analyzes recent public policy measures related to sexual diversity generated in Chile in the last five years. Power positions, versions of sexuality, normativity and gender stereotypes that remain present in this policies are reviewed. From a qualitative perspective, the Critical Discourse Analysis is used to analyze four initiatives generated in the health sector, in the education sector, and in the citizen rights sector. The results show the clear presence of the heteronormati...

Developing policy analytics for public health strategy and decisions-the Sheffield alcohol policy model framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Brennan, Alan; Meier, Petra; Purshouse, Robin; Rafia, Rachid; Meng, Yang; Hill-Macmanus, Daniel

This paper sets out the development of a methodological framework for detailed evaluation of public health strategies for alcohol harm reduction to meet UK policy-makers needs. Alcohol is known to cause substantial harms, and controlling its affordability and availability are effective policy options. Analysis and synthesis of a variety of public and commercial data sources is needed to evaluate impact on consumers, health services, crime, employers and industry, so a sound evaluation of impact is important. We discuss the iterative process to engage with stakeholders, identify evidence/data and develop analytic approaches and produce a final model structure. We set out a series of steps in modelling impact including: classification and definition of population subgroups of interest, identification and definition of harms and outcomes for inclusion, classification of modifiable components of risk and their baseline values, specification of the baseline position on policy variables especially prices, estimating effects of changing policy variables on risk factors including price elasticities, quantifying risk functions relating risk factors to harms including 47 health conditions, crimes, absenteeism and unemployment, and monetary valuation. The most difficult model structuring decisions are described, as well as the final results framework used to provide decision support to national level policymakers in the UK. In the discussion we explore issues around the relationship between modelling and policy debates, valuation and scope, limitations of evidence/data, how the framework can be adapted to other countries and decisions. We reflect on the approach taken and outline ongoing plans for further development.

Analysis of the policy effects of downstream Feed-In Tariff on China’s solar photovoltaic industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Hongwei; Zheng, Shilin; Zhang, Yanhua; Zhang, Kai

2016-01-01

The Chinese government initiated the Feed-In Tariff (“FIT”) policy for downstream power generation in August 2013. The effectiveness of the downstream FIT policy has attracted the attention of academia and government. Using the quarterly data of listed solar PV companies between 2009 and 2015, this paper provides an empirical analysis regarding the effects of the downstream FIT policy. We find that (1) the FIT policy has significantly enhanced the inventory turnover of listed PV firms and improved their profitability; (2) the FIT policy has significant effects on the inventory turnover of midstream companies and mixed industry-chain companies mainly engaged in downstream operations; (3) FIT policy is more favorable towards increasing the inventory turnover of private enterprises. Our results indicate that the FIT policy can have substantial effects on the sustainable development of China's solar photovoltaic industry. - Highlights: •The article focuses on the analysis of the effect of downstream FIT policy. •We test how FIT policy affects overcapacity and profitability of solar PV companies. •We find FIT policy significantly solved the overcapacity of China’s solar PV industry. •We find FIT policy improved profitability of listed solar PV companies. •FIT policy can’t be played alone and should be combined with taxation and R&D policy.

A Critical Discourse Analysis of Provincial Policies Impacting Shelter Service Delivery to Women Exposed to Violence.

Science.gov (United States)

Burnett, Camille; Ford-Gilboe, Marilyn; Berman, Helene; Ward-Griffin, Cathy; Wathen, Nadine

2015-01-01

Shelters for abused women function within a broad context that includes intersecting social structures, policies, and resources, which may constrain and limit the options available to abused women and tacitly reinforce the cycle of abuse. This feminist, qualitative study combined in-depth interviews and focus groups conducted with 37 staff and four executive directors from four shelters in Ontario, Canada, along with a critical discourse analysis of salient policy texts. Together, the interviews and critical discourse analysis formed an integrated analysis of the dialectic between policy as written and enacted. The study findings illuminate the complexity of the system and its impact on women, shelters, and the community and highlight how specific types of social policies and various social system subsystems and structures, and system configuration, shape the day to day reality of shelter service delivery and impact outcomes for abused women and their children. Collectively, these findings offer direction regarding where these policies could be improved and provide a basis for shelters, policy makers, advocates, and the community to strengthen current services and policies, potentially enhancing outcomes for women. © The Author(s) 2015.

Analysis of International Policies In The Solar Electricity Sector: Lessons for India

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deshmukh, Ranjit; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Gambhir, Ashwin; Phadke, Amol

2011-08-10

Although solar costs are dropping rapidly, solar power is still more expensive than conventional and other renewable energy options. The solar sector still needs continuing government policy support. These policies are driven by objectives that go beyond the goal of achieving grid parity. The need to achieve multiple objectives and ensure sufficient political support for solar power makes it diffi cult for policy makers to design the optimal solar power policy. The dynamic and uncertain nature of the solar industry, combined with the constraints offered by broader economic, political and social conditions further complicates the task of policy making. This report presents an analysis of solar promotion policies in seven countries - Germany, Spain, the United States, Japan, China, Taiwan, and India - in terms of their outlook, objectives, policy mechanisms and outcomes. The report presents key insights, primarily in qualitative terms, and recommendations for two distinct audiences. The first audience consists of global policy makers who are exploring various mechanisms to increase the penetration of solar power in markets to mitigate climate change. The second audience consists of key Indian policy makers who are developing a long-term implementation plan under the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission and various state initiatives.

School Health Promotion Policies and Adolescent Risk Behaviors in Israel: A Multilevel Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Tesler, Riki; Harel-Fisch, Yossi; Baron-Epel, Orna

2016-01-01

Background: Health promotion policies targeting risk-taking behaviors are being implemented across schools in Israel. This study identified the most effective components of these policies influencing cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption among adolescents. Methods: Logistic hierarchical linear model (HLM) analysis of data for 5279 students in…

SERI Wind Energy Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Noun, R. J.

1983-06-01

The SERI Wind Energy Program manages the areas or innovative research, wind systems analysis, and environmental compatibility for the U.S. Department of Energy. Since 1978, SERI wind program staff have conducted in-house aerodynamic and engineering analyses of novel concepts for wind energy conversion and have managed over 20 subcontracts to determine technical feasibility; the most promising of these concepts is the passive blade cyclic pitch control project. In the area of systems analysis, the SERI program has analyzed the impact of intermittent generation on the reliability of electric utility systems using standard utility planning models. SERI has also conducted methodology assessments. Environmental issues related to television interference and acoustic noise from large wind turbines have been addressed. SERI has identified the causes, effects, and potential control of acoustic noise emissions from large wind turbines.

Economic evaluation and Applications of the Policy Analysis Matrix ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

By using benefit to costs index, internal rate of return, net present value and policy analysis matrix were calculated. The results show that intercropping was affordable than sole cropping. Sole cropping of these crops had no relative advantage, while mixed cropping had a relative advantage than sole cropping. Nominal ...

Policy Pathways: Monitoring, Verification and Enforcement

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2010-07-01

The IEA estimates that, if implemented globally without delay, the 25 IEA Energy Efficiency recommendations could save 8.2 Gt CO2 per year by 2030. Yet many governments struggle with their implementation and thus miss a great part of the energy efficiency potential. The new IEA series Policy Pathways: Showing the way to energy efficiency implementation now aims to assist countries with improving energy efficiency policies. It features practical 'how-to' guides for designing, implementing and evaluating energy efficiency policies and achieving greater improvement.

Policy Pathways: Monitoring, Verification and Enforcement

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2010-07-01

The IEA estimates that, if implemented globally without delay, the 25 IEA Energy Efficiency recommendations could save 8.2 Gt CO2 per year by 2030. Yet many governments struggle with their implementation and thus miss a great part of the energy efficiency potential. The new IEA series Policy Pathways: Showing the way to energy efficiency implementation now aims to assist countries with improving energy efficiency policies. It features practical 'how-to' guides for designing, implementing and evaluating energy efficiency policies and achieving greater improvement.

A Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model for Policy Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Barron, R. W.; Hill, M. C.

2017-12-01

Although integrated assessments of climate change policy have frequently identified nuclear energy as a promising alternative to fossil fuels, these studies have often treated nuclear waste disposal very simply. Simple assumptions about nuclear waste are problematic because they may not be adequate to capture relevant costs and uncertainties, which could result in suboptimal policy choices. Modeling nuclear waste management costs is a cross-disciplinary, multi-scale problem that involves economic, geologic and environmental processes that operate at vastly different temporal scales. Similarly, the climate-related costs and benefits of nuclear energy are dependent on environmental sensitivity to CO2 emissions and radiation, nuclear energy's ability to offset carbon emissions, and the risk of nuclear accidents, factors which are all deeply uncertain. Alternative value systems further complicate the problem by suggesting different approaches to valuing intergenerational impacts. Effective policy assessment of nuclear energy requires an integrated approach to modeling nuclear waste management that (1) bridges disciplinary and temporal gaps, (2) supports an iterative, adaptive process that responds to evolving understandings of uncertainties, and (3) supports a broad range of value systems. This work develops the Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model (NWMCM). NWMCM provides a flexible framework for evaluating the cost of nuclear waste management across a range of technology pathways and value systems. We illustrate how NWMCM can support policy analysis by estimating how different nuclear waste disposal scenarios developed using the NWMCM framework affect the results of a recent integrated assessment study of alternative energy futures and their effects on the cost of achieving carbon abatement targets. Results suggest that the optimism reflected in previous works is fragile: Plausible nuclear waste management costs and discount rates appropriate for intergenerational cost

Time Series Analysis, Modeling and Applications A Computational Intelligence Perspective

CERN Document Server

Chen, Shyi-Ming

2013-01-01

Temporal and spatiotemporal data form an inherent fabric of the society as we are faced with streams of data coming from numerous sensors, data feeds, recordings associated with numerous areas of application embracing physical and human-generated phenomena (environmental data, financial markets, Internet activities, etc.). A quest for a thorough analysis, interpretation, modeling and prediction of time series comes with an ongoing challenge for developing models that are both accurate and user-friendly (interpretable). The volume is aimed to exploit the conceptual and algorithmic framework of Computational Intelligence (CI) to form a cohesive and comprehensive environment for building models of time series. The contributions covered in the volume are fully reflective of the wealth of the CI technologies by bringing together ideas, algorithms, and numeric studies, which convincingly demonstrate their relevance, maturity and visible usefulness. It reflects upon the truly remarkable diversity of methodological a...

Statistical attribution analysis of the nonstationarity of the annual runoff series of the Weihe River.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiong, Lihua; Jiang, Cong; Du, Tao

2014-01-01

Time-varying moments models based on Pearson Type III and normal distributions respectively are built under the generalized additive model in location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) framework to analyze the nonstationarity of the annual runoff series of the Weihe River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River. The detection of nonstationarities in hydrological time series (annual runoff, precipitation and temperature) from 1960 to 2009 is carried out using a GAMLSS model, and then the covariate analysis for the annual runoff series is implemented with GAMLSS. Finally, the attribution of each covariate to the nonstationarity of annual runoff is analyzed quantitatively. The results demonstrate that (1) obvious change-points exist in all three hydrological series, (2) precipitation, temperature and irrigated area are all significant covariates of the annual runoff series, and (3) temperature increase plays the main role in leading to the reduction of the annual runoff series in the study basin, followed by the decrease of precipitation and the increase of irrigated area.

Policy Analysis of Poverty Alleviation in Semarang City Using Spatial and Sectoral Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Muktiali, M.

2018-02-01

Poverty is a multidimensional problem. Therefore, poverty reduction policy is not only related to the increase of income, but also various other dimensions such as improvement of education, health, quality of life, access to electricity, access to sanitation and water supply. Semarang City Government in 2012 initiated a policy of poverty reduction synergy program called “Gerdu Kempling”. Gerdu Kempling is an integrated policy which gives priority to addressing poverty in each village and sub-district in Semarang based on aspects of health, economy, education, infrastructure, and environment. Based on the results of Budget Allocation Analysis and Analysis of Geographic Information Systems (Poverty Mapping), it can be concluded that the program and budget allocation for poverty alleviation in Semarang City are not synchronized either spatially or sectorally.

Chaotic time series analysis in economics: Balance and perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faggini, Marisa

2014-01-01

The aim of the paper is not to review the large body of work concerning nonlinear time series analysis in economics, about which much has been written, but rather to focus on the new techniques developed to detect chaotic behaviours in economic data. More specifically, our attention will be devoted to reviewing some of these techniques and their application to economic and financial data in order to understand why chaos theory, after a period of growing interest, appears now not to be such an interesting and promising research area

Chaotic time series analysis in economics: Balance and perspectives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Faggini, Marisa, E-mail: mfaggini@unisa.it [Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, Università di Salerno, Fisciano 84084 (Italy)

2014-12-15

The aim of the paper is not to review the large body of work concerning nonlinear time series analysis in economics, about which much has been written, but rather to focus on the new techniques developed to detect chaotic behaviours in economic data. More specifically, our attention will be devoted to reviewing some of these techniques and their application to economic and financial data in order to understand why chaos theory, after a period of growing interest, appears now not to be such an interesting and promising research area.

Policies on Conflicts of Interest in Health Care Guideline Development: A Cross-Sectional Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Morciano, Cristina; Basevi, Vittorio; Faralli, Carla; Hilton Boon, Michele; Tonon, Sabina; Taruscio, Domenica

2016-01-01

Objective To assess whether organisations that develop health care guidelines have conflict of interest (COI) policies and to review the content of the available COI policies. Methods Survey and content analysis of COI policies available in English, French, Spanish, and Italian conducted between September 2014 and June 2015. A 24-item data abstraction instrument was created on the basis of guideline development standards. Results The survey identified 29 organisations from 19 countries that met the inclusion criteria. From these organisations, 19 policies were eligible for inclusion in the content analysis. Over one-third of the policies (7/19, 37%) did not report or did not clearly report whether disclosure was a prerequisite for membership of the guideline panel. Strategies for the prevention of COI such as divestment were mentioned by only two organisations. Only 21% of policies (4/19) used criteria to determine whether an interest constitutes a COI and to assess the severity of the risk imposed. Conclusions The finding that some organisations, in contradiction of widely available standards, still do not have COI policies publicly available is concerning. Also troubling were the findings that some policies did not clearly report critical steps in obtaining, managing and communicating disclosure of relationships of interest. This in addition to the variability encountered in content and accessibility of COI policies may cause confusion and distrust among guideline users. It is in the interest of guideline users and developers to design an agreed-upon, comprehensive, clear, and accessible COI policy. PMID:27846255

Behavioral Insights for Federal Higher Education Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Castleman, Ben

2017-01-01

The federal role in higher education has grown over the past two decades, and now a new administration has the opportunity to strengthen policies that support students and their colleges and universities. To help inform these decisions, the Urban Institute convened a bipartisan group of scholars and policy advisers to write a series of memos…

How the global and national levels interrelate in climate policymaking: Foreign Policy Analysis and the case of Carbon Capture Storage in Norway's foreign policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roettereng, Jo-Kristian Straete

2016-01-01

States struggle to develop adequate climate change mitigation policies, especially when national energy interests conflict with collective environmental concerns. It is therefore crucial to understand how viable solutions may find political support on these terms. As one such case, this paper examines Norway's explicit foreign policy to promote Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) as a mitigation measure. I suggest that a Foreign Policy Analysis framework with a norm-centered constructivist focus allows for new insights into how climate policies function as balancing strategies between external normative pressures and important domestic concerns. It reveals how Norway's CCS policy represents an extraordinary effort to bridge seemingly contradictory agendas. The Norwegian CCS case highlights how a state may engage in innovative foreign political engineering to promote solutions to its international climate commitments on terms that fit national energy needs. It shows that climate political success may depend on successfully linking the international and domestic levels by simultaneously appealing to established norms within each system. - Highlights: • A Foreign Policy Analysis framework is used to explain foreign policy in the energy-climate domain. • Norway's external strategy to promote CCS globally is traced and explained. • Both external and domestic factors influenced Norway's CCS policymaking. • Both ideational and material factors were important to legitimize this strategy.

Predicting the Market Potential Using Time Series Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Halmet Bradosti

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of this analysis is to forecast a mini-market sales volume for the period of twelve months starting August 2015 to August 2016. The study is based on the monthly sales in Iraqi Dinar for a private local mini-market for the month of April 2014 to July 2015. As revealed on the graph and of course if the stagnant economic condition continues, the trend of future sales is down-warding. Based on time series analysis, the business may continue to operate and generate small revenues until August 2016. However, due to low sales volume, low profit margin and operating expenses, the revenues may not be adequate enough to produce positive net income and the business may not be able to operate afterward. The principal question rose from this is the forecasting sales in the region will be difficult where the business cycle so dynamic and revolutionary due to systematic risks and unforeseeable future.

Inorganic chemical analysis of environmental materials—A lecture series

Science.gov (United States)

Crock, J.G.; Lamothe, P.J.

2011-01-01

At the request of the faculty of the Colorado School of Mines, Golden, Colorado, the authors prepared and presented a lecture series to the students of a graduate level advanced instrumental analysis class. The slides and text presented in this report are a compilation and condensation of this series of lectures. The purpose of this report is to present the slides and notes and to emphasize the thought processes that should be used by a scientist submitting samples for analyses in order to procure analytical data to answer a research question. First and foremost, the analytical data generated can be no better than the samples submitted. The questions to be answered must first be well defined and the appropriate samples collected from the population that will answer the question. The proper methods of analysis, including proper sample preparation and digestion techniques, must then be applied. Care must be taken to achieve the required limits of detection of the critical analytes to yield detectable analyte concentration (above "action" levels) for the majority of the study's samples and to address what portion of those analytes answer the research question-total or partial concentrations. To guarantee a robust analytical result that answers the research question(s), a well-defined quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) plan must be employed. This QA/QC plan must include the collection and analysis of field and laboratory blanks, sample duplicates, and matrix-matched standard reference materials (SRMs). The proper SRMs may include in-house materials and/or a selection of widely available commercial materials. A discussion of the preparation and applicability of in-house reference materials is also presented. Only when all these analytical issues are sufficiently addressed can the research questions be answered with known certainty.

Advanced Grid Control Technologies Workshop Series | Energy Systems

Science.gov (United States)

: Smart Grid and Beyond John McDonald, Director, Technical Strategy and Policy Development, General Control Technologies Workshop Series In July 2015, NREL's energy systems integration team hosted workshops the Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) and included a technology showcase featuring projects

A comparative analysis of spectral exponent estimation techniques for 1/f(β) processes with applications to the analysis of stride interval time series.

Science.gov (United States)

Schaefer, Alexander; Brach, Jennifer S; Perera, Subashan; Sejdić, Ervin

2014-01-30

The time evolution and complex interactions of many nonlinear systems, such as in the human body, result in fractal types of parameter outcomes that exhibit self similarity over long time scales by a power law in the frequency spectrum S(f)=1/f(β). The scaling exponent β is thus often interpreted as a "biomarker" of relative health and decline. This paper presents a thorough comparative numerical analysis of fractal characterization techniques with specific consideration given to experimentally measured gait stride interval time series. The ideal fractal signals generated in the numerical analysis are constrained under varying lengths and biases indicative of a range of physiologically conceivable fractal signals. This analysis is to complement previous investigations of fractal characteristics in healthy and pathological gait stride interval time series, with which this study is compared. The results of our analysis showed that the averaged wavelet coefficient method consistently yielded the most accurate results. Class dependent methods proved to be unsuitable for physiological time series. Detrended fluctuation analysis as most prevailing method in the literature exhibited large estimation variances. The comparative numerical analysis and experimental applications provide a thorough basis for determining an appropriate and robust method for measuring and comparing a physiologically meaningful biomarker, the spectral index β. In consideration of the constraints of application, we note the significant drawbacks of detrended fluctuation analysis and conclude that the averaged wavelet coefficient method can provide reasonable consistency and accuracy for characterizing these fractal time series. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparative analysis of spectral exponent estimation techniques for 1/fβ processes with applications to the analysis of stride interval time series

Science.gov (United States)

Schaefer, Alexander; Brach, Jennifer S.; Perera, Subashan; Sejdić, Ervin

2013-01-01

Background The time evolution and complex interactions of many nonlinear systems, such as in the human body, result in fractal types of parameter outcomes that exhibit self similarity over long time scales by a power law in the frequency spectrum S(f) = 1/fβ. The scaling exponent β is thus often interpreted as a “biomarker” of relative health and decline. New Method This paper presents a thorough comparative numerical analysis of fractal characterization techniques with specific consideration given to experimentally measured gait stride interval time series. The ideal fractal signals generated in the numerical analysis are constrained under varying lengths and biases indicative of a range of physiologically conceivable fractal signals. This analysis is to complement previous investigations of fractal characteristics in healthy and pathological gait stride interval time series, with which this study is compared. Results The results of our analysis showed that the averaged wavelet coefficient method consistently yielded the most accurate results. Comparison with Existing Methods: Class dependent methods proved to be unsuitable for physiological time series. Detrended fluctuation analysis as most prevailing method in the literature exhibited large estimation variances. Conclusions The comparative numerical analysis and experimental applications provide a thorough basis for determining an appropriate and robust method for measuring and comparing a physiologically meaningful biomarker, the spectral index β. In consideration of the constraints of application, we note the significant drawbacks of detrended fluctuation analysis and conclude that the averaged wavelet coefficient method can provide reasonable consistency and accuracy for characterizing these fractal time series. PMID:24200509

Duality between Time Series and Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Campanharo, Andriana S. L. O.; Sirer, M. Irmak; Malmgren, R. Dean; Ramos, Fernando M.; Amaral, Luís A. Nunes.

2011-01-01

Studying the interaction between a system's components and the temporal evolution of the system are two common ways to uncover and characterize its internal workings. Recently, several maps from a time series to a network have been proposed with the intent of using network metrics to characterize time series. Although these maps demonstrate that different time series result in networks with distinct topological properties, it remains unclear how these topological properties relate to the original time series. Here, we propose a map from a time series to a network with an approximate inverse operation, making it possible to use network statistics to characterize time series and time series statistics to characterize networks. As a proof of concept, we generate an ensemble of time series ranging from periodic to random and confirm that application of the proposed map retains much of the information encoded in the original time series (or networks) after application of the map (or its inverse). Our results suggest that network analysis can be used to distinguish different dynamic regimes in time series and, perhaps more importantly, time series analysis can provide a powerful set of tools that augment the traditional network analysis toolkit to quantify networks in new and useful ways. PMID:21858093

Data imputation analysis for Cosmic Rays time series

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandes, R. C.; Lucio, P. S.; Fernandez, J. H.

2017-05-01

The occurrence of missing data concerning Galactic Cosmic Rays time series (GCR) is inevitable since loss of data is due to mechanical and human failure or technical problems and different periods of operation of GCR stations. The aim of this study was to perform multiple dataset imputation in order to depict the observational dataset. The study has used the monthly time series of GCR Climax (CLMX) and Roma (ROME) from 1960 to 2004 to simulate scenarios of 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% and 90% of missing data compared to observed ROME series, with 50 replicates. Then, the CLMX station as a proxy for allocation of these scenarios was used. Three different methods for monthly dataset imputation were selected: AMÉLIA II - runs the bootstrap Expectation Maximization algorithm, MICE - runs an algorithm via Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations and MTSDI - an Expectation Maximization algorithm-based method for imputation of missing values in multivariate normal time series. The synthetic time series compared with the observed ROME series has also been evaluated using several skill measures as such as RMSE, NRMSE, Agreement Index, R, R2, F-test and t-test. The results showed that for CLMX and ROME, the R2 and R statistics were equal to 0.98 and 0.96, respectively. It was observed that increases in the number of gaps generate loss of quality of the time series. Data imputation was more efficient with MTSDI method, with negligible errors and best skill coefficients. The results suggest a limit of about 60% of missing data for imputation, for monthly averages, no more than this. It is noteworthy that CLMX, ROME and KIEL stations present no missing data in the target period. This methodology allowed reconstructing 43 time series.

Management of radio-contaminated sites. Analysis of various public policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Massuelle, M.H.; Brenot, J.; Hubert, P.

1999-01-01

This paper deals with the management of sites that were contaminated by radioactive substances in the past because of industrial practices, such as the mining, milling and processing of uranium ores, the radium luminizing industry, and thorium processing. Contaminations due to nuclear weapons testing, nuclear accidents and on-going practices are not considered. The management refers to the protection of the near populations and of people who are using the site now or who might use it in the future. International organizations have issued recommendations which apply to these contaminated sites. The concepts called for to manage these de facto situations are intervention, optimization and intervention levels. Few countries have yet elaborated regulations or guidelines concerning the treatment and the use of contaminated sites. The United States has one regulation in preparation that will be generally applicable whereas most countries follow the recommendations of their national radiation protection board on a case by case basis. This paper aims at comparing public policies in several countries by developing first, how policies are defined, and second, how they are implemented in practice. The present survey suffers from the limitation of such an approach. The main limitation lies in the fact that remediation cannot be summarized by a series of prescriptions that can be found in regulatory documents. Rather it is a series of practical decisions that must be investigated, and of recommendations that may not have an official statute and cannot be traced easily. Nevertheless, this work allowed us to put forward some important points. The main one is that flexible approaches are usually adopted. Even when quantitative levels (intervention levels, non intervention levels) are put forward, they can be interpreted in different ways, depending on the approach followed for assessment and on the exact concepts. Should one consider that contaminated sites can be a building in an

Early Educational Provision--Emphasised in Education Policy Reforms in Norway? An Analysis of Education Policy Documents

Science.gov (United States)

Bjørnsrud, Halvor; Nilsen, Sven

2014-01-01

The article analyses how the intentions of early provision in Norwegian schools have been expressed in the education policy reforms in Norway from the 1970s to the present day. The first area deals with the intentions that most explicitly cover early provision; prevention, early detection and intervention. The second area of analysis relates to…

Time series analysis of reference crop evapotranspiration for Bokaro District, Jharkhand, India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gautam Ratnesh

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Evapotranspiration is the one of the major role playing element in water cycle. More accurate measurement and forecasting of Evapotranspiration would enable more efficient water resources management. This study, is therefore, particularly focused on evapotranspiration modelling and forecasting, since forecasting would provide better information for optimal water resources management. There are numerous techniques of evapotranspiration forecasting that include autoregressive (AR and moving average (MA, autoregressive moving average (ARMA, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA, Thomas Feiring, etc. Out of these models ARIMA model has been found to be more suitable for analysis and forecasting of hydrological events. Therefore, in this study ARIMA models have been used for forecasting of mean monthly reference crop evapotranspiration by stochastic analysis. The data series of 102 years i.e. 1224 months of Bokaro District were used for analysis and forecasting. Different order of ARIMA model was selected on the basis of autocorrelation function (ACF and partial autocorrelation (PACF of data series. Maximum likelihood method was used for determining the parameters of the models. To see the statistical parameter of model, best fitted model is ARIMA (0, 1, 4 (0, 1, 112.

Use of national clinical databases for informing and for evaluating health care policies.

Science.gov (United States)

Black, Nick; Tan, Stefanie

2013-02-01

Policy-makers and analysts could make use of national clinical databases either to inform or to evaluate meso-level (organisation and delivery of health care) and macro-level (national) policies. Reviewing the use of 15 of the best established databases in England, we identify and describe four published examples of each use. These show that policy-makers can either make use of the data itself or of research based on the database. For evaluating policies, the major advantages are the huge sample sizes available, the generalisability of the data, its immediate availability and historic information. The principal methodological challenges involve the need for risk adjustment and time-series analysis. Given their usefulness in the policy arena, there are several reasons why national clinical databases have not been used more, some due to a lack of 'push' by their custodians and some to the lack of 'pull' by policy-makers. Greater exploitation of these valuable resources would be facilitated by policy-makers' and custodians' increased awareness, minimisation of legal restrictions on data use, improvements in the quality of databases and a library of examples of applications to policy. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Policy Pathways: Improving the Fuel Economy of Road Vehicles - A policy package

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-07-01

The transportation sector accounts for approximately one-fifth of global final energy consumption and will account for nearly all future growth in oil use, particularly for road vehicles. The right policy mix can allow countries to improve the fuel economy of road vehicles, which in turn can enhance energy security and reduce CO2 emissions. Improving the Fuel Economy of Road Vehicles highlights lessons learned and examples of good practices from countries with experience in implementing fuel economy policies for vehicles. The report, part of the IEA’s Policy Pathway series, outlines key steps in planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation. It complements the IEA Technology Roadmap: Fuel Economy for Road Vehicles, which outlines technical options, potentials, and costs towards improvement in the near, medium and long term.

What Is Public Agency Strategic Analysis (PASA and How Does It Differ from Public Policy Analysis and Firm Strategy Analysis?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aidan R. Vining

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Public agency strategic analysis (PASA is different from public policy analysis because public agency executives face numerous constraints that those performing “unconstrained” policy analysis do not. It is also different from private sector strategic analysis. But because of similar constraints and realities, some generic and private sector strategic analysis techniques can be useful to those carrying out PASA, if appropriately modified. Analysis of the external agency environment (external forces and internal value creation processes (“value chains”, “modular assembly” processes or “multi-sided intermediation platforms” are the most important components of PASA. Also, agency executives must focus on feasible alternatives. In sum, PASA must be practical. But public executives need to take seriously public value, and specifically social efficiency, when engaging in PASA. Unless they do so, their strategic analyses will not have normative legitimacy because enhancing public value is not the same as in some versions of public value or in agency “profit maximization”. Although similarly constrained, normatively appropriate public agency strategic analysis is not “giving clients what they want” or “making the public sector business case”. PASA must be both practical and principled.

The effect of monetary policy of Central Bank on activities of Tehran Stock Exchange

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hossein Vazifehdust

2013-08-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy and activity of the Tehran Stock Exchange. The statistical population of the research consists of all companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange and central bank monetary policy variables including time series generated by the central bank seasonally. For the purpose of data analysis, econometric autoregressive system models, and two-stage ADF regression with unit roots test, co-integration and reliability were used to determine level of effect and type of effect of the four components of monetary policy on exchange activity. The results of this study show that there is a strong relation between share price index and monetary policy variables and between monetary policy variables and trading volume. However, the relation between monetary policy variables and cash yield index was not so strong, but monetary policy variables’ effect on stock exchange activity was acceptable considering strong relation between the two first variables. It is suggested that if this work is done using non-linear models, it will yield better results.

Structural analysis of health-relevant policy-making information exchange networks in Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Contandriopoulos, Damien; Benoît, François; Bryant-Lukosius, Denise; Carrier, Annie; Carter, Nancy; Deber, Raisa; Duhoux, Arnaud; Greenhalgh, Trisha; Larouche, Catherine; Leclerc, Bernard-Simon; Levy, Adrian; Martin-Misener, Ruth; Maximova, Katerina; McGrail, Kimberlyn; Nykiforuk, Candace; Roos, Noralou; Schwartz, Robert; Valente, Thomas W; Wong, Sabrina; Lindquist, Evert; Pullen, Carolyn; Lardeux, Anne; Perroux, Melanie

2017-09-20

Health systems worldwide struggle to identify, adopt, and implement in a timely and system-wide manner the best-evidence-informed-policy-level practices. Yet, there is still only limited evidence about individual and institutional best practices for fostering the use of scientific evidence in policy-making processes The present project is the first national-level attempt to (1) map and structurally analyze-quantitatively-health-relevant policy-making networks that connect evidence production, synthesis, interpretation, and use; (2) qualitatively investigate the interaction patterns of a subsample of actors with high centrality metrics within these networks to develop an in-depth understanding of evidence circulation processes; and (3) combine these findings in order to assess a policy network's "absorptive capacity" regarding scientific evidence and integrate them into a conceptually sound and empirically grounded framework. The project is divided into two research components. The first component is based on quantitative analysis of ties (relationships) that link nodes (participants) in a network. Network data will be collected through a multi-step snowball sampling strategy. Data will be analyzed structurally using social network mapping and analysis methods. The second component is based on qualitative interviews with a subsample of the Web survey participants having central, bridging, or atypical positions in the network. Interviews will focus on the process through which evidence circulates and enters practice. Results from both components will then be integrated through an assessment of the network's and subnetwork's effectiveness in identifying, capturing, interpreting, sharing, reframing, and recodifying scientific evidence in policy-making processes. Knowledge developed from this project has the potential both to strengthen the scientific understanding of how policy-level knowledge transfer and exchange functions and to provide significantly improved advice

Characterization of Land Transitions Patterns from Multivariate Time Series Using Seasonal Trend Analysis and Principal Component Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benoit Parmentier

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Characterizing biophysical changes in land change areas over large regions with short and noisy multivariate time series and multiple temporal parameters remains a challenging task. Most studies focus on detection rather than the characterization, i.e., the manner by which surface state variables are altered by the process of changes. In this study, a procedure is presented to extract and characterize simultaneous temporal changes in MODIS multivariate times series from three surface state variables the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, land surface temperature (LST and albedo (ALB. The analysis involves conducting a seasonal trend analysis (STA to extract three seasonal shape parameters (Amplitude 0, Amplitude 1 and Amplitude 2 and using principal component analysis (PCA to contrast trends in change and no-change areas. We illustrate the method by characterizing trends in burned and unburned pixels in Alaska over the 2001–2009 time period. Findings show consistent and meaningful extraction of temporal patterns related to fire disturbances. The first principal component (PC1 is characterized by a decrease in mean NDVI (Amplitude 0 with a concurrent increase in albedo (the mean and the annual amplitude and an increase in LST annual variability (Amplitude 1. These results provide systematic empirical evidence of surface changes associated with one type of land change, fire disturbances, and suggest that STA with PCA may be used to characterize many other types of land transitions over large landscape areas using multivariate Earth observation time series.

Public health human resources: a comparative analysis of policy documents in two Canadian provinces

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Amidst concerns regarding the capacity of the public health system to respond rapidly and appropriately to threats such as pandemics and terrorism, along with changing population health needs, governments have focused on strengthening public health systems. A key factor in a robust public health system is its workforce. As part of a nationally funded study of public health renewal in Canada, a policy analysis was conducted to compare public health human resources-relevant documents in two Canadian provinces, British Columbia (BC) and Ontario (ON), as they each implement public health renewal activities. Methods A content analysis of policy and planning documents from government and public health-related organizations was conducted by a research team comprised of academics and government decision-makers. Documents published between 2003 and 2011 were accessed (BC = 27; ON = 20); documents were either publicly available or internal to government and excerpted with permission. Documentary texts were deductively coded using a coding template developed by the researchers based on key health human resources concepts derived from two national policy documents. Results Documents in both provinces highlighted the importance of public health human resources planning and policies; this was particularly evident in early post-SARS documents. Key thematic areas of public health human resources identified were: education, training, and competencies; capacity; supply; intersectoral collaboration; leadership; public health planning context; and priority populations. Policy documents in both provinces discussed the importance of an educated, competent public health workforce with the appropriate skills and competencies for the effective and efficient delivery of public health services. Conclusion This policy analysis identified progressive work on public health human resources policy and planning with early documents providing an inventory of issues to be

Public health human resources: a comparative analysis of policy documents in two Canadian provinces.

Science.gov (United States)

Regan, Sandra; MacDonald, Marjorie; Allan, Diane E; Martin, Cheryl; Peroff-Johnston, Nancy

2014-02-24

Amidst concerns regarding the capacity of the public health system to respond rapidly and appropriately to threats such as pandemics and terrorism, along with changing population health needs, governments have focused on strengthening public health systems. A key factor in a robust public health system is its workforce. As part of a nationally funded study of public health renewal in Canada, a policy analysis was conducted to compare public health human resources-relevant documents in two Canadian provinces, British Columbia (BC) and Ontario (ON), as they each implement public health renewal activities. A content analysis of policy and planning documents from government and public health-related organizations was conducted by a research team comprised of academics and government decision-makers. Documents published between 2003 and 2011 were accessed (BC = 27; ON = 20); documents were either publicly available or internal to government and excerpted with permission. Documentary texts were deductively coded using a coding template developed by the researchers based on key health human resources concepts derived from two national policy documents. Documents in both provinces highlighted the importance of public health human resources planning and policies; this was particularly evident in early post-SARS documents. Key thematic areas of public health human resources identified were: education, training, and competencies; capacity; supply; intersectoral collaboration; leadership; public health planning context; and priority populations. Policy documents in both provinces discussed the importance of an educated, competent public health workforce with the appropriate skills and competencies for the effective and efficient delivery of public health services. This policy analysis identified progressive work on public health human resources policy and planning with early documents providing an inventory of issues to be addressed and later documents providing

Effect of editors' implementation of CONSORT guidelines on the reporting of abstracts in high impact medical journals: interrupted time series analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hopewell, Sally; Ravaud, Philippe; Baron, Gabriel; Boutron, Isabelle

2012-06-22

To investigate the effect of the CONSORT for Abstracts guidelines, and different editorial policies used by five leading general medical journals to implement the guidelines, on the reporting quality of abstracts of randomised trials. Interrupted time series analysis. We randomly selected up to 60 primary reports of randomised trials per journal per year from five high impact, general medical journals in 2006-09, if indexed in PubMed with an electronic abstract. We excluded reports that did not include an electronic abstract, and any secondary trial publications or economic analyses. We classified journals in three categories: those not mentioning the guidelines in their instructions to authors (JAMA and New England Journal of Medicine), those referring to the guidelines in their instructions to authors but with no specific policy to implement them (BMJ), and those referring to the guidelines in their instructions to authors with an active policy to implement them (Annals of Internal Medicine and Lancet). Two authors extracted data independently using the CONSORT for Abstracts checklist. Mean number of CONSORT items reported in selected abstracts, among nine items reported in fewer than 50% of the abstracts published across the five journals in 2006. We assessed 955 reports of abstracts of randomised trials. Journals with an active policy to enforce the guidelines showed an immediate increase in the level of mean number of items reported (increase of 1.50 items; P=0.0037). At 23 months after publication of the guidelines, the mean number of items reported per abstract for the primary outcome was 5.41 of nine items, a 53% increase compared with the expected level estimated on the basis of pre-intervention trends. The change in level or trend did not increase in journals with no policy to enforce the guidelines (BMJ, JAMA, and New England Journal of Medicine). Active implementation of the CONSORT for Abstracts guidelines by journals can lead to improvements in the

Educational Policy Studies: Old Wine in a New Bottle.

Science.gov (United States)

Eisele, Chris

1985-01-01

As educational policy studies have multiplied, Illinois State University's (ISU) Educational Administration and Foundations Department developed a new series of policy studies grounded in historical and philosophical methodology. Content of one course is described, and benefits of the ISU model are discussed. (MT)

Summary, analysis, and policy recommendations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1990-01-01

Four policy recommendations are presented that would provide the foundations for a long-term transportation policy for the US while gradually reducing the threats from petroleum-powered vehicles to the climate and air quality. They include: improvements in new-vehicle fuel efficiency; increased transportation system efficiency; development of non-fossil energy sources for transportation; and reduction of other greenhouse gas emissions. In the future, manufacturers will be under pressure to develop petroleum-powered vehicles that are cleaner, safer, and more fuel efficient; at the same time, they will need to develop new kinds of vehicles that will emit no pollutants. This pressure will come not from market forces but from public policy and will require large amounts of capital

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON STOCK MARKET FOR TEXT MINING CORRELATION OF ECONOMY NEWS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sadi Evren SEKER

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes an information retrieval methodfor the economy news. Theeffect of economy news, are researched in the wordlevel and stock market valuesare considered as the ground proof.The correlation between stock market prices and economy news is an already ad-dressed problem for most of the countries. The mostwell-known approach is ap-plying the text mining approaches to the news and some time series analysis tech-niques over stock market closing values in order toapply classification or cluster-ing algorithms over the features extracted. This study goes further and tries to askthe question what are the available time series analysis techniques for the stockmarket closing values and which one is the most suitable? In this study, the newsand their dates are collected into a database and text mining is applied over thenews, the text mining part has been kept simple with only term frequency – in-verse document frequency method. For the time series analysis part, we havestudied 10 different methods such as random walk, moving average, acceleration,Bollinger band, price rate of change, periodic average, difference, momentum orrelative strength index and their variation. In this study we have also explainedthese techniques in a comparative way and we have applied the methods overTurkish Stock Market closing values for more than a2 year period. On the otherhand, we have applied the term frequency – inversedocument frequency methodon the economy news of one of the high-circulatingnewspapers in Turkey.

Social network analysis of character interaction in the Stargate and Star Trek television series

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Melody Shi Ai; Ujum, Ephrance Abu; Ratnavelu, Kuru

This paper undertakes a social network analysis of two science fiction television series, Stargate and Star Trek. Television series convey stories in the form of character interaction, which can be represented as “character networks”. We connect each pair of characters that exchanged spoken dialogue in any given scene demarcated in the television series transcripts. These networks are then used to characterize the overall structure and topology of each series. We find that the character networks of both series have similar structure and topology to that found in previous work on mythological and fictional networks. The character networks exhibit the small-world effects but found no significant support for power-law. Since the progression of an episode depends to a large extent on the interaction between each of its characters, the underlying network structure tells us something about the complexity of that episode’s storyline. We assessed the complexity using techniques from spectral graph theory. We found that the episode networks are structured either as (1) closed networks, (2) those containing bottlenecks that connect otherwise disconnected clusters or (3) a mixture of both.

Obesity prevention advocacy in Australia: an analysis of policy impact on autonomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Haynes, Emily; Hughes, Roger; Reidlinger, Dianne P

2017-06-01

To explore obesity policy options recommended by stakeholders and identify their impact on individual autotomy. Qualitative and quantitative methods were used. A content analysis of submissions to the Australian Government's Inquiry into Obesity was conducted. Each recommendation was categorised by its impact on autonomy, according to existing frameworks. Chi-square test for independence was used to explore the association between autonomy and stakeholder support defined as frequency of recommendation. The extent of support for a policy option was significantly associated with impact on autonomy (pautonomy were least frequently recommended in every setting; but more likely in schools (27%) than other settings (autonomy were most widely recommended (46%). Stakeholders advocated policy options that enhance individual autonomy to a greater extent than those that diminish autonomy. Implications for public health: Targeting obesity policy options that enhance rather than diminish autonomy may be more politically acceptable across most settings, with the exception of schools where more restrictive policy options are appropriate. Re-framing options accordingly may improve leadership by government in obesity policy. © 2017 The Authors.

Dynamic analysis of policy drivers for bioenergy commodity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeffers, Robert F.; Jacobson, Jacob J.; Searcy, Erin M.

2013-01-01

Biomass is increasingly being considered as a feedstock to provide a clean and renewable source of energy in the form of both liquid fuels and electric power. In the United States, the biofuels and biopower industries are regulated by different policies and have different drivers, which impact the maximum price the industries are willing to pay for biomass. This article describes a dynamic computer simulation model that analyzes future behavior of bioenergy feedstock markets given policy and technical options. The model simulates the long-term dynamics of these markets by treating advanced biomass feedstocks as a commodity and projecting the total demand of each industry, as well as the market price over time. The model is used for an analysis of the United States bioenergy feedstock market that projects supply, demand, and market price given three independent buyers: domestic biopower, domestic biofuels, and foreign exports. With base-case assumptions, the biofuels industry is able to dominate the market and meet the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) targets for advanced biofuels. Further analyses suggest that United States bioenergy studies should include estimates of export demand in their projections, and that GHG-limiting policy would partially shield both industries from export dominance. - Highlights: ► We model a United States bioenergy feedstock commodity market. ► Three buyers compete for biomass: biopower, biofuels, and foreign exports. ► The presented methodology improves on dynamic economic equilibrium theory. ► With current policy incentives and ignoring exports, biofuels dominates the market. ► Overseas biomass demand could dominate unless a CO 2 -limiting policy is enacted.

Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis on gold, crude oil and foreign exchange rate time series

Science.gov (United States)

Pal, Mayukha; Madhusudana Rao, P.; Manimaran, P.

2014-12-01

We apply the recently developed multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis method to investigate the cross-correlation behavior and fractal nature between two non-stationary time series. We analyze the daily return price of gold, West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil, foreign exchange rate data, over a period of 18 years. The cross correlation has been measured from the Hurst scaling exponents and the singularity spectrum quantitatively. From the results, the existence of multifractal cross-correlation between all of these time series is found. We also found that the cross correlation between gold and oil prices possess uncorrelated behavior and the remaining bivariate time series possess persistent behavior. It was observed for five bivariate series that the cross-correlation exponents are less than the calculated average generalized Hurst exponents (GHE) for q0 and for one bivariate series the cross-correlation exponent is greater than GHE for all q values.

Policy analysis and advocacy in nursing education: the Nursing Education Council of British Columbia framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Duncan, Susan M; Thorne, Sally; Van Neste-Kenny, Jocelyne; Tate, Betty

2012-05-01

Academic nursing leaders play a crucial role in the policy context for nursing education. Effectiveness in this role requires that they work together in presenting nursing education issues from a position of strength, informed by a critical analysis of policy pertaining to the delivery of quality nursing education and scholarship. We describe a collective process of dialog and critical analysis whereby nurse leaders in one Canadian province addressed pressing policy issues facing governments, nursing programs, faculty, and students. Consensus among academic nurse leaders, formalized through the development of a policy action framework, has enabled us to take a stand, at times highly contested, in the politicized arena of the nursing shortage. We present the components of a policy action framework for nursing education and share examples of how we have used a critical approach to analyze and frame policy issues in nursing education for inclusion on policy agendas. We believe our work has influenced provincial and national thinking about policy in nursing education is the foundation of our conclusion that political presence and shared strategy among academic nursing leaders is undeniably critical in the global context of nursing today. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Connected to TV series: Quantifying series watching engagement.

Science.gov (United States)

Tóth-Király, István; Bőthe, Beáta; Tóth-Fáber, Eszter; Hága, Győző; Orosz, Gábor

2017-12-01

Background and aims Television series watching stepped into a new golden age with the appearance of online series. Being highly involved in series could potentially lead to negative outcomes, but the distinction between highly engaged and problematic viewers should be distinguished. As no appropriate measure is available for identifying such differences, a short and valid measure was constructed in a multistudy investigation: the Series Watching Engagement Scale (SWES). Methods In Study 1 (N Sample1  = 740 and N Sample2  = 740), exploratory structural equation modeling and confirmatory factor analysis were used to identify the most important facets of series watching engagement. In Study 2 (N = 944), measurement invariance of the SWES was investigated between males and females. In Study 3 (N = 1,520), latent profile analysis (LPA) was conducted to identify subgroups of viewers. Results Five factors of engagement were identified in Study 1 that are of major relevance: persistence, identification, social interaction, overuse, and self-development. Study 2 supported the high levels of equivalence between males and females. In Study 3, three groups of viewers (low-, medium-, and high-engagement viewers) were identified. The highly engaged at-risk group can be differentiated from the other two along key variables of watching time and personality. Discussion The present findings support the overall validity, reliability, and usefulness of the SWES and the results of the LPA showed that it might be useful to identify at-risk viewers before the development of problematic use.

Canadian dairy policy and the returns to federal dairy cattle research

OpenAIRE

Fox, Glenn; Roberts, Bruce; Brinkman, George L.

1992-01-01

The economic surplus approach is used to estimate the returns to federal investments in dairy cattle research in Canada. A national supply function is estimated using time series data. Lagged research expenditures are included as explanatory variables in the model, facilitating the calculation of marginal as well as average benefits from research. Simulation analysis is used to study the effects of product market distortions associated with Canadian dairy policy as well as of the marginal exc...

Analysis of Dividend Policy of the Romanian Financial Investment Companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicoleta BARBUTA-MISU

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of dividend policy, promoted by a joint-stock company may be: building trust and forming a true business ownership, business growth, increase creditworthiness of the company and of trust others to it. The paper aim is to study the dividend policy to those five Romanian Financial Investment Companies in the period 2006-2012, through a series of specific indicators such as: dividend per share, dividend growth rate, dividend distribution rate, dividend yield, earnings per share, price earnings ratio, in order to reflect the performance and the impact of financial crisis on their performance on the financial market. Tracking the dynamics of these indicators allows us to draw conclusions on the position of the companies on the securities market, and their level influences the decision of shareholders to maintain or withdraw of shares, to invest in other more profitable businesses. Dividend yields made every year by Financial Investment Companies justify the high interest from investors for these shares. Currently, these companies offer a very attractive return for investors compared to the average dividend yield of the Stock Exchange. The evolution of the price earnings ratio shows the normal trend of rise of the companies’ shares in the period 2007-2008, after that they have entered the market at highly undervalued levels especially after declining in 2008.

Simultaneous determination of radionuclides separable into natural decay series by use of time-interval analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hashimoto, Tetsuo; Sanada, Yukihisa; Uezu, Yasuhiro

2004-01-01

A delayed coincidence method, time-interval analysis (TIA), has been applied to successive α-α decay events on the millisecond time-scale. Such decay events are part of the 220 Rn→ 216 Po (T 1/2 145 ms) (Th-series) and 219 Rn→ 215 Po (T 1/2 1.78 ms) (Ac-series). By using TIA in addition to measurement of 226 Ra (U-series) from α-spectrometry by liquid scintillation counting (LSC), two natural decay series could be identified and separated. The TIA detection efficiency was improved by using the pulse-shape discrimination technique (PSD) to reject β-pulses, by solvent extraction of Ra combined with simple chemical separation, and by purging the scintillation solution with dry N 2 gas. The U- and Th-series together with the Ac-series were determined, respectively, from alpha spectra and TIA carried out immediately after Ra-extraction. Using the 221 Fr→ 217 At (T 1/2 32.3 ms) decay process as a tracer, overall yields were estimated from application of TIA to the 225 Ra (Np-decay series) at the time of maximum growth. The present method has proven useful for simultaneous determination of three radioactive decay series in environmental samples. (orig.)

Empirical evidence in the analysis of the environmental and energy policies of a series of industrialised nations, during the period 1960-1997, using widely employed macroeconomic indicators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Focacci, Antonio

2003-01-01

This article underlines the main implications of the interrelations between the energy problem and that of environmental pollution, using the most widely used macroeconomic indicators in the field of policy analysis. In fact, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission intensity and energy intensity trends may be used to highlight the most important features of economic development over a given time scale in a variety of different countries. The empirical analysis proposed here--covering a time-span of some 40 years in a number of the most highly industrialised nations--seems to be useful if we are to understand the main similarities and differences in the interaction between the energy choices made by different countries and their respective environmental effects. Moreover, by using PPPs, it has been possible to propose a more detailed cross-country analysis for the different international situations

Internationalization Impact on PhD Training Policy in Russia: Insights from The Comparative Document Analysis

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Oksana Chigisheva

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The relevance of the study is due to the need for an objective picture of the Russian third level tertiary education transformation driven by internationalization issues and global trends in education. The article provides an analytical comparative review of the official documents related to the main phases of education reform in Russia and focuses on the system of PhD training which has undergone significant reorganization in recent years. A series of alterations introduced into the theory and practice of postgraduate education in Russia are traced in regulatory documents and interpreted in terms of growing internationalization demand. Possible implications for further development of the research human potential in Russia are being discussed. The method of comparative document analysis produces the best possible insight into the subject. The findings of the study contribute to the understanding of current challenges facing the system of doctoral studies in Russia and lead to certain conclusions on the transformation of educational policy in relation to PhD training under the influence of internationalization agenda.

Capacity development for food policy analysis: What works best? Adding evidence from IFPRI's experience

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuyvenhoven, A.

2018-01-01

This article presents major results of a meta-assessment of experience of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) with different kinds of capacity strengthening (CS) activities for food policy analysis. Collaborative research, on-the-job-training, and ID support for building data

Analysis of time series and size of equivalent sample

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernal, Nestor; Molina, Alicia; Pabon, Daniel; Martinez, Jorge

2004-01-01

In a meteorological context, a first approach to the modeling of time series is to use models of autoregressive type. This allows one to take into account the meteorological persistence or temporal behavior, thereby identifying the memory of the analyzed process. This article seeks to pre-sent the concept of the size of an equivalent sample, which helps to identify in the data series sub periods with a similar structure. Moreover, in this article we examine the alternative of adjusting the variance of the series, keeping in mind its temporal structure, as well as an adjustment to the covariance of two time series. This article presents two examples, the first one corresponding to seven simulated series with autoregressive structure of first order, and the second corresponding to seven meteorological series of anomalies of the air temperature at the surface in two Colombian regions

A PESTLE Policy Mapping and Stakeholder Analysis of Indonesia’s Fossil Fuel Energy Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Satya Widya Yudha

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Indonesia has a long-standing history of reliance on fossil fuels, which reflects the country’s vast reserves of crude oil, natural gas, coal, and other resources. Consequently, the potential of Indonesia’s fossil energy industry is both complex and multi-layered. This paper aims to carry out a policy mapping and stakeholder analysis of Indonesia’s fossil energy industry, adopting a PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technology, Legal, and Environmental approach, which allows identification of multidisciplinary stakeholders and underlying relationships across the sector. The outcomes from the analysis indicated the importance of strategically aligning the stakeholders’ policies to the needs of other relevant stakeholders. Furthermore, the central and regional governments need to work closely in order to better sense if there is a change in the policy, be receptive to anticipating the potential impacts, and to avoid policies being executed in an isolated manner.

Transversal analysis of public policies on user fees exemptions in six West African countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ridde Valéry

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background While more and more West African countries are implementing public user fees exemption policies, there is still little knowledge available on this topic. The long time required for scientific production, combined with the needs of decision-makers, led to the creation in 2010 of a project to support implementers in aggregating knowledge on their experiences. This article presents a transversal analysis of user fees exemption policies implemented in Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Togo and Senegal. Methods This was a multiple case study with several embedded levels of analysis. The cases were public user fees exemption policies selected by the participants because of their instructive value. The data used in the countries were taken from documentary analysis, interviews and questionnaires. The transversal analysis was based on a framework for studying five implementation components and five actors’ attitudes usually encountered in these policies. Results The analysis of the implementation components revealed: a majority of State financing; maintenance of centrally organized financing; a multiplicity of reimbursement methods; reimbursement delays and/or stock shortages; almost no implementation guides; a lack of support measures; communication plans that were rarely carried out, funded or renewed; health workers who were given general information but not details; poorly informed populations; almost no evaluation systems; ineffective and poorly funded coordination systems; low levels of community involvement; and incomplete referral-evacuation systems. With regard to actors’ attitudes, the analysis revealed: objectives that were appreciated by everyone; dissatisfaction with the implementation; specific tensions between healthcare providers and patients; overall satisfaction among patients, but still some problems; the perception that while the financial barrier has been removed, other barriers persist; occasionally a

Transversal analysis of public policies on user fees exemptions in six West African countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Ridde, Valéry; Queuille, Ludovic; Kafando, Yamba; Robert, Emilie

2012-11-20

While more and more West African countries are implementing public user fees exemption policies, there is still little knowledge available on this topic. The long time required for scientific production, combined with the needs of decision-makers, led to the creation in 2010 of a project to support implementers in aggregating knowledge on their experiences. This article presents a transversal analysis of user fees exemption policies implemented in Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Togo and Senegal. This was a multiple case study with several embedded levels of analysis. The cases were public user fees exemption policies selected by the participants because of their instructive value. The data used in the countries were taken from documentary analysis, interviews and questionnaires. The transversal analysis was based on a framework for studying five implementation components and five actors' attitudes usually encountered in these policies. The analysis of the implementation components revealed: a majority of State financing; maintenance of centrally organized financing; a multiplicity of reimbursement methods; reimbursement delays and/or stock shortages; almost no implementation guides; a lack of support measures; communication plans that were rarely carried out, funded or renewed; health workers who were given general information but not details; poorly informed populations; almost no evaluation systems; ineffective and poorly funded coordination systems; low levels of community involvement; and incomplete referral-evacuation systems. With regard to actors' attitudes, the analysis revealed: objectives that were appreciated by everyone; dissatisfaction with the implementation; specific tensions between healthcare providers and patients; overall satisfaction among patients, but still some problems; the perception that while the financial barrier has been removed, other barriers persist; occasionally a reorganization of practices, service rationing due to lack of

Welfare family policies and gender earnings inequality: A cross-national comparative analysis

OpenAIRE

Mandel, Hadas; Semyonov, Moshe

2003-01-01

The present study examines whether and to what extent welfare-family policies are likely to affect earnings inequality between economically active men and women. Using hierarchical linear models, we combine individual-level variables (obtained from the Luxembourg Income Study) with country level data (obtained from secondary sources) to evaluate the net effects of welfare family policies on gender earnings inequality across 20 industrialized countries. The analysis reveals that net of individ...

Radial artery pulse waveform analysis based on curve fitting using discrete Fourier series.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Zhixing; Zhang, David; Lu, Guangming

2018-04-19

Radial artery pulse diagnosis has been playing an important role in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM). For its non-invasion and convenience, the pulse diagnosis has great significance in diseases analysis of modern medicine. The practitioners sense the pulse waveforms in patients' wrist to make diagnoses based on their non-objective personal experience. With the researches of pulse acquisition platforms and computerized analysis methods, the objective study on pulse diagnosis can help the TCM to keep up with the development of modern medicine. In this paper, we propose a new method to extract feature from pulse waveform based on discrete Fourier series (DFS). It regards the waveform as one kind of signal that consists of a series of sub-components represented by sine and cosine (SC) signals with different frequencies and amplitudes. After the pulse signals are collected and preprocessed, we fit the average waveform for each sample using discrete Fourier series by least squares. The feature vector is comprised by the coefficients of discrete Fourier series function. Compared with the fitting method using Gaussian mixture function, the fitting errors of proposed method are smaller, which indicate that our method can represent the original signal better. The classification performance of proposed feature is superior to the other features extracted from waveform, liking auto-regression model and Gaussian mixture model. The coefficients of optimized DFS function, who is used to fit the arterial pressure waveforms, can obtain better performance in modeling the waveforms and holds more potential information for distinguishing different psychological states. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Discontinuous conduction mode analysis of phase-modulated series ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)